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Posts tagged with 'complexity'
Joshua Cooper Ramo
(Source: inthenoosphere)
Geoffrey West's Fever Dream
Geoffrey West takes a look at the unknowability of the innards of complex systems, and wonders if big data — and a new big theory to corral big data — could act like a flashlight, revealing the inner workings of financial markets, urban communities, and ecosystems under stress.
Geoffrey West, Big Data Needs a Big Theory to Go with It
Complexity comes into play when there are many parts that can interact in many different ways so that the whole takes on a life of its own: it adapts and evolves in response to changing conditions. It can be prone to sudden and seemingly unpredictable changes—a market crash is the classic example. One or more trends can reinforce other trends in a "positive feedback loop" until things swiftly spiral out of control and cross a tipping point, beyond which behavior changes radically.
What makes a "complex system" so vexing is that its collective characteristics cannot easily be predicted from underlying components: the whole is greater than, and often significantly different from, the sum of its parts. A city is much more than its buildings and people. Our bodies are more than the totality of our cells. This quality, called emergent behavior, is characteristic of economies, financial markets, urban communities, companies, organisms, the Internet, galaxies and the health care system.
The digital revolution is driving much of the increasing complexity and pace of life we are now seeing, but this technology also presents an opportunity. The ubiquity of cell phones and electronic transactions, the increasing use of personal medical probes, and the concept of the electronically wired "smart city" are already providing us with enormous amounts of data. With new computational tools and techniques to digest vast, interrelated databases, researchers and practitioners in science, technology, business and government have begun to bring large-scale simulations and models to bear on questions formerly out of reach of quantitative analysis, such as how cooperation emerges in society, what conditions promote innovation, and how conflicts spread and grow.
The trouble is, we don't have a unified, conceptual framework for addressing questions of complexity. We don't know what kind of data we need, nor how much, or what critical questions we should be asking. "Big data" without a "big theory" to go with it loses much of its potency and usefulness, potentially generating new unintended consequences.
When the industrial age focused society's attention on energy in its many manifestations—steam, chemical, mechanical, and so on—the universal laws of thermodynamics came as a response. We now need to ask if our age can produce universal laws of complexity that integrate energy with information. What are the underlying principles that transcend the extraordinary diversity and historical contingency and interconnectivity of financial markets, populations, ecosystems, war and conflict, pandemics and cancer? An overarching predictive, mathematical framework for complex systems would, in principle, incorporate the dynamics and organization of any complex system in a quantitative, computable framework.
'The emergent is everywhere and nowhere.'
Complexity isn't a clock. You can't open one up and see it's innards. There are no gears and cogs. If there was a way to 'look inside', all you'd find would be more complex systems. And those complex systems aren't connected in purely physical way, made up of computable inputs and outputs: they are united by emergent behaviors: the system manifests it character my acting in ways that are inherently unpredictable, and incalculable. These behaviors arise from the interactions between the components, but reside in none of them. The emergent is everywhere and nowhere.
We have no math for this.
West might as well be saying 'We need to be able to see into the future . It would be helpful.' But that doesn't mean we have a way to do it, or that it is doable at all.
The tempo of modern life has sped up to the point that the future feels closer, and since it's only a heartbeat away it seems reasonable to imagine being able to glance around that corner and know what is about to transpire. But that's just a feeling.
'The more we have wired everything into everything else, the less we can know about what will happen tomorrow.'
The future is actually farther away than ever, because we have constructed a world that is the most multi-facted astrolobe, the most incestuous interconnection of global economic interdependencies, the deepest ingraining of contingent political scenarios, and the widest pending cascade of possible ecological side-effects. The more we have wired everything into everything else, the less we can know about what will happen tomorrow.
In essence, West hopes we can create a math that can pile up all the big data and crunch it, in a Borgesian infinity. A machinery as complex as the world it hopes to fathom, allowing us — or at least it— to know everything about everything.
I suspect we will have to settle for something less.
We could start by intentionally decoupling complexity that poses threats. Derivative trading, and credit default swaps are a good example. Efforts by banks and brokerages to diffuse risks, and sharing them with other finance companies leads to increased risk, systemically. When there is a big downturn the risks are amplified, and the cascade leads to huge 'unintended' results. The solution to this is not predicting when and how it will happen, but stopping the increased complexity inherent in derivatives and credit default swaps. The only cure for increased complexity is decoupling components of the larger system.
Complex organisation arises from webs of interaction among causal factors. Even if individual factors cannot be held responsible for particular developments, complex phenomena such as people, skills, skulls, languages, and even football teams clearly do exist, and have a material rather than any mystical or immaterial basis. In fact, emergent complexity takes essentially the same form, and presents the same challenge, in the very different contexts of biology, ecology, anthropology, sport — and free will.
But here's the conundrum we mentioned earlier: if science says that the world is an entirely material phenomenon following universal laws of causation, then even the idea that we are responsible for our thoughts and actions comes under siege. Personality? Intelligence? Criminality? Political preference? You name it — even our moral decisions must, in principle, be predictable from our inherent, inherited genome. Yet, our thoughts and actions seem to be even farther beyond the reach of gene-based prediction than physical traits such as diabetes or height, which we've seen to be extremely complex in their causation. Is this just a temporary limit in scientific knowledge, or is something more profound going on here?
Perhaps as we are evolved biological organisms, uncertainty is unsettling to us
The question is more than incidental, because it raises the rigid idea of a mind/body dualism. Dualism asserts that mind and consciousness, whatever they are, are free from the usual material constraints. In other words, we have free will, just since we feel that we do. Free will is at the heart of assumptions that we are morally responsible for our actions, which in turn affects social and legal policy as well as religious notions of earned salvation. Clearly, if individuals are just the product of their genes, then they can't be held responsible. Yet, how can they not be the product of their genes?
An answer might lie in the understanding of complex causation that we have presented here. We aren't qualified to deal with religious issues about moral responsibility, but from a scientific point of view there is no mind/body dualism. Mind, wondrous though it might be, is in fact the product of molecular forces, including genes. Yet the mind seems fundamentally unpredictable from genes. The reason is that the brain and its activities are the result of countless billions, if not trillions (or more) of ordinary molecular and cellular interactions of all sorts, each of them probabilistic, from gene usage to the formation of neural connections, beginning before birth and extending over our lifetime's experiences. During development, our brains are programmed to 'wire' up in a very general way, but the details in each individual are the result of experience, and our individual behaviours are the result of our brains responding to our unique set of experiences.
We should not be at all surprised that, just like most other traits, behaviour is not specifically predictable from genes. The massive web of probabilism makes such prediction weak at best, just as we've seen for physical traits. Our mental activities feel as if they are free, and their unpredictability supports that feeling. But the reason is that the causation involved is so complex and deeply probabilistic that it is, in effect, unpredictable even if we were to try to enumerate all the contributing factors. In that sense, for all practical purposes, we are indeed free.
It is sobering to point out that none of these issues about determinism, probability, complex causation — and even their implications for free will — are new. They can be traced back to the classical philosophers, and were vigorously debated along with the development of probability and statistics in the 18th through to the 19th centuries, and then reinforced by discoveries in sub-atomic physics in the 20th century. The significance and challenge of probabilistic multifactorial causation have been recognised. What is new is that we have a much better documentation of this problem from a genetic point of view. But, conceptually, we have not advanced very much in our understanding of what are deeply puzzling aspects of the way the cosmos — including life — works.
Human beings don't like things that are unexplained. We want the comfort and sense of safety that comes from predictability. Perhaps as we are evolved biological organisms, uncertainty is unsettling to us. And, in the scientific era, we assume a material understanding of causation. That's what the idea of determinism represents in a simple, easy-to-grasp way. We want to be in control, to be able to manipulate nature to alleviate the problems that we face in a finite life in a finite world. We want our causes to be simple, real causes, and that is perhaps why the metaphor of the gene as the atom of causation in life is so easy to absorb, and its subtleties so easy to overlook. We are made very uneasy by things that are only probabilistic unless, as in coin-flipping, we can sense what's going on. When we can't see it, and causation is many-to-many, that is far too much for our minds to deal with easily. Yet that seems to be the reality of the world.
Kenneth M Weiss and Anne V Buchanan, What can genes do?
So, it turns out that DNA is, in fact, a great metaphor for business culture, but only after you realize that DNA is not a few hundred off-on switches, but instead a universe of unknowable complexities, that we can interact with, and understand at some abstract cartoonish level, but not control, and never fully comprehend.
Henri Poincaré
Nope, this is not a still from Blade Runner. It's smog in Beijing.
Does the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil set off a Tornado in Texas? - Edward Lorenz
A butterfly stirring the air today in Peking can transform storm systems next month in New York. - James Gleick
The Buttefly Effect suggests that the entire ecosystem is a single, swirling, non-linear complex system, and what goes on in one corner of it influences all other parts in unknowable ways.
The Biggest If Of All, Part II
Scott Rafer riffs on my recent post, The Biggest If Of All, where I suggest that this time it might be different, this time we may have moved into a new era, a new economy: the postnormal. Rafer says it's just the same old same old:
@stoweboyd This purely academic question gets asked every business cycle. It was being asked on the upside in the late 90s if you recall. In this (not very) regulated financial environment, investment managers figure out how to play new conditions which makes the answer to your question "No" +/- 20%.
Well, logically, just because someone said X would happen 15 years ago and it didn't doesn't mean that someone saying X now is wrong. Those are independent events, at least in principle.
My point is something else entirely. We are living in a time where uncertainty is so great that businesses and investors are finding it increasingly impossible to make judgments about where things are headed. Andrew Ross Sorkin recently wrote about this:
The Election Won't Solve All Puzzles - Andrew Ross Sorkin via NYTimes.com
"Uncertainty" has become the watchword over the last several years for many chief executives, politicians and economists as an explanation — or perhaps an excuse — for the economy's slow growth, for the lack of hiring by business and for the volatility in the stock market.
"The claim is that businesses and households are uncertain about future taxes, spending levels, regulations, health care reform and interest rates. In turn, this uncertainty leads them to postpone spending on investment and consumption goods and to slow hiring, impeding the recovery," a group of professors from Stanford University and the University of Chicago wrote in a study that found "current levels of economic policy uncertainty are at extremely elevated levels compared to recent history." (The professors have created a Web site, policyuncertainty.com, where you can track the "uncertainty" levels.)
If you go look at the other charts — like the European Policy Uncertainty Index — economic uncertainty has been steadily rising since 2007.
We are moving from a world of problems, which demand speed, analysis, and elimination of uncertainty to solve, to a world of dilemmas, which demand patience, sense-making, and an engagement of uncertainty. - Denise CaronSo my point is different. Investors and other business people will find it harder to reason about possible futures because we have moved onto shifting ground. It's a VUCA world, characterized as increased volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity.
As I wrote in July, regarding our blindness regarding the postnormal climate we've made for ourselves,
The biggest problem is that people's thinking patterns are stuck in the old days, and I don't just mean their expectations about 'normal' weather. No, even worse is that people can't accept the reality that in the post-normal we will never have the luxury of time to assess and then adapt. Linear problem-solving approaches will simply not work anymore.
But this is not a call for more old world leadership, characterized by moving fast, and looking for permanent 'solutions' to well-defined and researched 'problems'. Instead, we need leaders demonstrating the 'VUCA Prime' characteristics, as Bob Johansen has styled it.
Denise Caron makes the break between the old world and the new one very clear:
We are moving from a world of problems, which demand speed, analysis, and elimination of uncertainty to solve, to a world of dilemmas, which demand patience, sense-making, and an engagement of uncertainty.
So, in this context, there is no 'solution' to infrastructure stress and failure based on more violent weather. We are stuck in a problem space which is fundamentally unsolvable, but we have to try to make sense of this in the context of the larger world.
For example: the financial constraints of our weakened economy mean that we may not be able to repair the interstate highway system, but we might extend and maintain the train system for people moving. Do we have the foresight to disinvest in the highway system? Can we shift from a truck-based logistics system to boats, trains, and airships for long-distance hauling?
We are just as trapped in our thinking as we are in a rapidly changing global weather system, and without leaders with the mindset and skillset geared for the post-normal world, we will never find our way out.
The analysis about weather is paralleled by our inability to logically untangle the financial mess the world is in. And it's not that we need to get smarter, do more analysis, put more brilliant minds on it: the system is so large, interconnected, and complex that it cannot be understood. It is a complex non-linear system, barreling along as fast as we can fuel it, and it cannot be neatly reduced to a set of smaller, more easily understood parts, unless we actually start disconnecting the parts.
But are we taking steps to disconnect the world's financial markets? To raise trade barriers, and diminish global supply chains? To require companies to only do business in one country, and to only compete in a single marketplace? To break up vertically integrated multinationals? No. And leaving aside whether this would be a 'good' thing in some moral or ideological sense, we aren't doing it. If anything, the world is growing more interconnected and complex.
At the macroeconomic level, this poses astonishing policy issues, the first of which is seeing the forest for the trees: that we've moved into new territory and we have no map. At the microeconomic level, the investor or business leader has a set of tools that used to work, a map that used to show the way, a compass that found north. But they don't work anymore. They no longer point the way, or suggest that all ways forward are equally uncertain of success.
Specifically with regard to investments in tech, David Lee at SV Angel recently said 'It has never been easier to start a company, and never harder to build one', regarding the structural issues in the tech funding world. VC's don't see a clear path for a real return on investments in commerce 2.0, games, or apps that rely on Facebook, Twitter, or other platforms. And the result of that uncertainty is being reflected in a decreased amount of later stage investments. This is an echo of the international fund managers I wrote about in the first installment of The Biggest If Of All, many of whom state that uncertainty has never been greater, or of more import in the investment world. So they, like tech VC's, are holding back, and waiting for a return to normalcy.
But what if it never comes?
We know that the changes we've already made to our ecological world will take at least hundreds of years to reverse. Perhaps we've turned a similar curve in the economic and policy world. And we don't know what the world will look like in a hundred years or so, and perhaps there is simply no way to figure out what is going to happen in the next five years, either.
The author of The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, has a new book out — Antifragile: How to Live in a World We Don't Understand — in which he argues that the world has three sorts of things in it: the fragile, the robust and the antifragile. He was interviewed about the antifragile in New Scientist:
Antifragile: How to make an unstable world strong - Linda Geddes Interviews Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Linda Geddes: In your new book you talk about things being "antifragile". What do you mean exactly?
Nassim Nicholas Taleb: When you ask people what is the opposite of fragile, they mostly answer something that is resilient or unbreakable - an unbreakable package would be robust. However, the opposite of fragile is something that actually gains from disorder. In the book, I classify things into fragile, robust or antifragile.
Geddes: Can you give me some examples?
Taleb: Nature builds things that are antifragile. In the case of evolution, nature uses disorder to grow stronger. Occasional starvation or going to the gym also makes you stronger, because you subject your body to stressors and gain from them. Another example is the restaurant industry. It benefits from the fact that individual restaurants are fragile by exploiting their mistakes as it tries to figure out why a particular restaurant went bust. Trial and error is an antifragile activity.
Geddes: How is antifragility different from the saying "what doesn't kill you makes you stronger"?
Taleb: I look at it in terms of systems: situations where what kills me makes others stronger, how the fragility of some parts of the system brings overall benefits. There are good and bad systems organised in terms of whether the system gets stronger or weaker from errors made by an individual part. Every plane crash makes the next one less likely, but every bank going bust makes the next one more likely.
Geddes: How would you make something antifragile?
Taleb: If antifragility is the property of all these natural complex systems that have survived, then depriving them of volatility, randomness and stressors will harm them. Just as spending a month in bed leads to muscle atrophy, complex systems are weakened or even killed when deprived of stressors.
If you want to move away from fragility, you must avoid centralisation and debt and foster aggressive risk-takers who are willing to fail seven times in a lifetime. The economy of the west was initiated through trial and error. We still have a pocket of that in California, where there are small costs of failure and big gains once in a while. The top-down approach blocks antifragility and growth, whereas everything bottom-up thrives under the right amount of stress and disorder.
Geddes: Are you saying that capitalism is good, but that 21st-century capitalism has gone too far?
Taleb: What we do today has nothing to do with capitalism or socialism. It is a crony type of system that transfers money to the coffers of bureaucrats. The largest "fragiliser" of society is a lack of skin in the game. If you are mayor of a small town, you are penalised for your mistakes because you are made accountable when you go to church. But we are witnessing the rise of a new class of inverse heroes - bureaucrats, bankers, and academics with too much power. They game the system while citizens pay the price. I want the entrepreneur to be respected, not the CEO of a company who has all the upsides and none of the downsides.
Geddes: Does all this connect to your black swans?
Taleb: Those are rare events with extreme impacts that lie outside the realm of regular expectations because nothing in the past can convincingly point to their possibility. The global financial collapse is one example (it was a black swan for those who took risks they didn't understand). Some people have misconstrued my original idea to think that we have to try to predict these events. We can't, we've just got to get out of their way.
I haven't read the book, so I can't comment in depth, but I am a deep believer in the premise that interconnecting large and complex systems makes them more — not less — liable to fail. This is why the interconnectednees of the modern world economic system is so dangerous. And I agree that the solution is to disconnect them, intentionally, to decrease risk. Or, using his term, to make systems antifragile.
- Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Incredible Hulk (readingbyeugene.com)
- If Nassim Taleb Really Does Like Negative Reviews, Then He Should Read This Article (businessinsider.com)
- Antifragile: How to Live in a World We Don't Understand by Nassim Nicholas Taleb - review (guardian.co.uk)
(via underpaidgenius)
Re: The Future Impact Of Big Data In 2020 and The Limits Of Our Knowledge →
In reading through the Pew/Elon University Big Data survey analysis, I come away with the sense that I diverge with many others on a basic notion around big data. I don't believe that big data technology and techniques will end the volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity of the post-normal world. Those factors are growing faster than our data exhaust, and our capacity to mine it.
This doesn't mean that big data collection and analysis is pointless. On the contrary, it may be a critical factor in developing new ways to sense, model, and think about a future growing increasingly opaque.
But some comments, like those of Patrick Tucker, strike me as techno-utopian and unsupportable. He makes that case that Google is already in the business of predicting the small-bore future around issue like flu prevention, based on flu sufferers search queries.
But the passing of the flu bug from person to person is a first-order result of contact. The nature of complex and unpredictable systems is that unforeseeable results arise from second-, third-, and higher-order connections. The public health implications of direct contact have been know for hundreds of years: Google is merely finding a faster way to track the well-understood.
As Tucker argues,
Futurist machines are taking over the job of inventing the future. Their predictions have consequences in the real world because our interaction with the future as individuals, groups, and nations is an expression of both personal and national identity. Regardless of what may or may not happen, the future as an idea continually shapes buying, voting, and social behavior. The future is becoming increasingly knowable. We sit on the verge of a potentially tremendous revolution in science and technology. But even those aspects of the future that are the most potentially beneficial to humankind will have disastrous effects if we fail to plan for them.
The future, alas, is not becoming more knowable.
Unconstrained and dynamic complex systems — like our society, the economic system of Europe, or the Earth's weather — are fundamentally unknowable: their progression from one state to another cannot be predicted consistently, even if you have a relatively good understanding of both the starting state and the present state, because the behavior of the system as a whole is an emergent property of the interconnections between the parts. And the parts are themselves made up of interconnected parts, and so on.
Yes, weather forecasting and other scientific domains have been benefited by better models and more data, and more data and bigger analysis approaches will increase the level of consistency for weather, but only to a certain extent. There are rounding errors that grow from the imprecision of measures and oversimplifications in our models, so that even something as potentially opaque as the weather — where no one is intentionally hiding data, or degrading it — cannot be predicted completely. In everyday life, this is why the weather forecast for the next few hours is several orders of magnitude better than the forecast for 10 days ahead. Big data — as currently conceived — may allow us to improve weather prediction for the next 10 days dramatically, but the inverse square law of predictability means that predictions about the weather 10 months ahead are unlikely to dramatically improve.
So, consider it this way: Big data is unlikely to increase the certainty about what is going to happen in anything but the nearest of near futures — in weather, politics, and buying behavior — because uncertainty and volatility grow along with the interconnectedness of human activities and institutions across the world. Big data is itself a factor in the increased interconnectedness of the world: as companies, governments, and individuals take advantage of insights gleaned from big data, we are making the world more tightly interconnected, and as a result (perhaps unintuitively) less predictable.
David Cheriton, Arista Networks Founders Aim to Alter How Computers Connect
One Argument For An Open Food System
Yesterday's Food 2.0 event in NYC was great: a wide variety of people discussing various parts of the emerging open food chain, from the seeds in the ground to dinner in our mouths.
We are headed for the food system equivalent of the bank meltdown.
My interests, as I said in the Open Source Food panel, are mixed. As a web anthropologist, I want to understand the way that innovations spread across this new community, and the role that social tools are playing in spreading ideas and forming a new foundation for a new and open design for food growing, production, and distribution. But I am also motivated — at a partisan level — to help develop an open food chain because of the threats that arise with the closed food chain we now have.
I made a closing argument — and not well — that I think is helpful for people to understand how important an open food system is. Here it is, somewhat cleaned up.
Today's Food System Is A Lot Like The Financial System, Only In Reverse
The financial system that nearly led to a global financial collapse, and which has caused the largest recession since the Great Depression, is a sprawling, globalized mess so complex that it cannot be managed or understood. One thing we have learned is that the mortgage bond market is a textbook example of how lack of visibility can make a system dangerous to all those involved, even to those who make money from its instability.
Specifically, the housing market worked like this: Home owners acquired mortgages from lending institutions — banks, mostly — and those institutions turned around and sold them off to other institutions, and ultimately (often after many sales and repackagings), the debts were consolidated in to gigantic pools, and then reconfigured into new pools of bonds, theoretically by level of risk.
We know what happened: too much easy credit was offered to people who had high risk of defaulting. This was concealed by the numerous reshufflings of the actual obligations of specific people for specific properties into giant mass blogs of toxic risk. Regulators who were supposed to be monitoring the system as a whole, do not have tools adequate to police the system. In fact, the system is too complex to even determine what should have been monitored, aside from the unhelpful notion that everything should be watched. Those involved in the repackaging had incentives to conceal the actual risks, which they did by design and by actions. And then, when groups of debtors began to default (the mortgage holders, and various hyper-leveraged financial institutions), there was no way to unscramble the mess. Governments have stepped in to cover institutional bets, but we still haven't see the last repercussions of the Econolypse, and the foreclosures continue.
Why is this like the food system? The world financial system — and the leverage it created — was based on the loss of information at every step in the system, along with implicit trust given to the theoretical authority of regulators and the presumption that large players don't want to cause harm, necessarily. And the same situation holds in the world food system, with similarly scaled risks. The world's food is hanging in the balance.
So, in the global food system, the risks inherent in food — not just food safety, but the environmental costs of outsourcing food production to distant lands with unregulated food production — are concealed by distance, and the unwillingness of the players to keep track of and share information. Where did this particular head of broccoli grow? What chemicals were poured on the soil there? Was this side of pork ever allowed to warm above 40º farenheit? The large agribusiness firms bundle together the risks in the food system, and parcel it out in repackaged lots, so when we buy some broccoli at the store — in general — we know nothing about it, really. An 'enlightened' chain might mark it as coming from Mexico, or California, but aside from that, we know nothing. And there is no real open marketplace, aside from the choice to defect from the global system and rely on local farmers, which is not a choice open to many. An open marketplace would mean that I could choose one head of broccoli over another based on information about them.
In the final analysis, long food chains with closed information cannot be safe, and create a situation where it is impossible to make informed decisions about the impacts of our food choices. And the companies that have come to control the global food market do not want to gather or provide that information. And it is difficult to imagine that our governments would start to compel them to do so.
The cost of food is rising across the world, as a result of growing populations and various short-term weather or long-term climate problems, depending on your view. This is the stress that is equivalent to the run up to the mortgage/bond disaster: players at every stage in the global food chain will have added incentives to guard their proprietary information and connections, to conceal high risk production practices, and to stockpile foods and information. We are headed for the food system equivalent of the bank meltdown.
The creation of an open food system will have to take place outside of the existing food system, by different groups, and serving the needs of people who have defected. And it needs to happen fast.
There are a vast number of issues related to the development of a food system where critical information is opened up for use by companies and individuals. Open in this sense means that common frameworks for sharing information evolve and are widely used. Food information will of necessity flow in parallel with the movement of food, and the activities surrounding its travel and transformation into food products.
I predict that there will be something like the LAMP stack for this new open food chain: layers in an application framework, or components in a communication framework. Also, this framework will be based on social networks: the relationship of the various agents in the food chain — farmers, distributors, food producers, grocers, and consumers — and their interactions.
The open food system will be social, and is as potentially disruptive to the established closed food system as social media has proven to be for the media world. Low-cost and low-friction software will mean that we can demassify food the way that social tools have demassified media. Supermarket chains might be a lot like newspaper conglomerates, in this model. Yes, we will still need to grow, produce and distribute food, but just as we have increasingly turned to the web to learn about — and influence — world and local events, so too we will turn to an open and social food system, managed online, to learn about and acquire food.
I will be writing more about the open food system, and its software, over the next weeks and months. This is just the start of something big.
- The food chain is almost broken. Who will reforge the links of trust? | Joanna Blythman (guardian.co.uk)


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Can Calgary really make the playoffs?
Not after Saturday's embarrassing loss at Boston, where they gave up three power play goals to a team that had been scoreless in its previous 22 attempts.
Not after a shocking lack of push back at any time.
How about after Sunday?
What a difference a day can make after a solid win in Washington - coupled with the Colorado Avalanche losing in San Jose. The gap seems possible to close. Their schedule this week is all they can ask for - catching the Coyotes on the second of back-to-back nights Wednesday, then a game in Colorado Friday.
The Flames have no back to backs for the remainder of the year, and the Avs' game in hand is a back-to-back - in Edmonton one night after playing in Vancouver. Calgary feels they have to run the table (and they might be right) so let's look at a couple players that may tip the balance for both clubs.
There has been so much written dissecting the game of Jarome Iginla. Let's face it, if he can't provide some form of offence in the last couple weeks of the season, the Flames are goners. Even though the stats tell us he is over 30 goals again, a remarkably steady flow of production over the last decade, it has been an uneven year at best. At 33, it seems more difficult for Iginla to create his own shot. In the past, a robust Iginla would get in on the forecheck, initiate some contact and spin to a soft area on the ice for his crisp release. It appears now as though his feet are heavy and he is not as effective getting prime scoring chances. I know he has 34 shots in his last 10 games, but he has only one goal to go with his four assists.
Against Washington, he took the initiative on the power play to shoot more off the half wall (and that helped on Ian White's power play goal) but there is something not all there in Iginla's game. The ferocity seems manufactured - like he is either mentally or physically worn down. He needs a spark - some help - and at this stage, can it come from Matt Stajan?
Stajan is a big stretch as a No. 1 centre and he too has been silent in the last 10 games with just five assists. Brent Sutter has moved people around on different lines - and the Flames got another great effort from Rene Bourque on Sunday - but there has to be more from the perceived top line. Jay Bouwmeester's third goal (first in 58 games) was welcomed as he drove the net and created a scoring chance. Where has that been? If it hasn't been there because he has been harnessed, then that's a systematic mistake. If it is because he simply has not got into the rush, then that is clearly on him. Bouwmeester has a much more complete game than he has shown at any time this year, he is too good to have just three goals.
I was once told by a Stanley Cup-winning coach that there comes a time in the year where, after you have tried to grind every ounce out of your team, it can't be coaches on one side of the fence and players on the other. It has to be everyone on the same side. Brent Sutter, along with GM brother Darryl, was clearly frustrated Saturday with the play of their top players. Detail, system and passion are earmarks of Brent's coaching and the Flames and their coach have to find a way to bring the same page to every game. There is not enough time to feel their way along anymore.
It's funny that expectations can alter the view so widely. No one expected the Avalanche to contend for a playoff spot. Yet here they are, four-point cushion, with a game in hand. They have the first tie-breaker (wins) in their favour as well. All seems well, except nothing is ever easy at this time of the year when you are near the cut line. The Avs have been below .500 since the Olympic break (6-7-1), and suffered a tough loss at San Jose Sunday (where the puck bounced all over the place around their net and ended up behind Craig Anderson in the oddest ways). The team is tied with Montreal in giving up the most shots on goal (32.1/game) of any team in a playoff spot and this is a dangerous way to play. Their penalty killing is atrocious, giving up 11 power play goals in their last 23 times shorthanded. And only two playoff teams - Washington (who seems to outscore any problem) and Nashville - are worse.
These numbers point to the biggest reason, in my opinion, for the Avalanche's success this season - and the reason to be concerned. Craig Anderson has been brilliant from Day 1, giving the team a belief that they can hang on any night, to the point where this young roster believes they should win. He is a battler, has had to fight his way to a starter's job after winding his way through the minors and having been through waivers a couple times.
He also has never played more than 58 games in any pro year. This year, Anderson will blow by 70 starts and there have been some signs lately that fatigue is creeping into his game. In his last seven starts, he has given up at least three goals - with more than a couple that haven't been highlight reel material. Combine that with the number of shots he faces nightly and the Avs have to hope like heck that Anderson can level off his play again. Their coach Joe Sacco says the Olympic break gave Anderson the rest he needed, so the last two-plus weeks will tell the final tale.
Razor Cuts
1) Steve Downie sure has come a long way since the chaotic end of his junior career, a 20-game suspension early in his pro career and the look that he would be an undisciplined player. He has toned down the goofy stuff. Not since Theo Fleury in 2001-02 has a player had 20 plus goals and 200 plus penalty minutes until Downie accomplished it this year. I have been impressed with his play, how he forced coach Rick Tocchet to find him more ice time and how he has fit in with Marty St. Louis and Steven Stamkos. Those two players get the lions' share of the headlines, but Downie has been another bright spot on a season that imploded after the Olympic break in Tampa.
2) The Sharks have won four straight after an 0-5-1 stretch that was as badly played as it was uninspired. The same questions will hang around the Sharks necks until the playoffs, and only then can they be answered. Are they too nice or too soft? Todd McLellan has moved players around to the point of playing Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley and Patrick Marleau on three different lines in the last week. Can their defence hold up in the playoffs? They aren't the quickest group, and outside speed or a quick cycle might be too much for this group over the long haul.
3) As the Hawks look for their right form, they too are a bit unsettled. Back-to-back losses to Columbus will do that, but it has been more prolonged than that. They have given up three or more goals against in seven of their last 10 games and they miss Brian Campbell and Kim Johnsson on the back end. Campbell is out until mid-playoffs and Johnson, acquired for Cam Barker from Minnesota, hasn't played in a couple weeks with a suspected concussion. Coach Joel Quenneville broke up his all-star defence pair of Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith recently, looking for a bit of balance. Mix this with their long running goalie saga and it is not out of the realm that the Hawks could stumble. It does appear as Antti Niemi has grabbed the starters' job and he has zero playoff experience.
Mail Time
Hi Ray -
Since your playing days, how much more "rigid" have the end boards (or for that matter) the boards around the whole rink have become? Any how much more have they contributed to the increase (and severity) of injuries involving even normal "hard" checks into the boards?
I remember back about 10 years ago, the Nassau Coliseum used some kind of "spring" or "shock absorber" system in the corners to allow the boards to "give somewhat" – you are familiar that at the Coliseum the fans do not sit right on top of the end boards - like most of today's newer arenas – allowing the arena the ability to modify their system, I suppose, since they have more space to work with. Again, back around 10 years ago I believe Montreal and/or Toronto switched to the total "seamless" glass all around the entire rink – better view for the fans, but I remember the broadcasters made the comment about "hitting into a cement wall" with this configuration – with no "give" whatsoever. I think the Devils did the right thing by installing the "older" style metal stanchion/glass combination behind the boards at the Prudential Center for that reason...
Thank you. Greg - Holbrook, NY
There is no question that the boards and seamless glass are far more rigid than when I started. The old Auditorium in Buffalo was almost cushy on the boards - great sound as well when a player was hit on the boards! Funny note about that rink. The teams came on the ice at the same end of the rink through different doors. At the Sabres door, their trainers would stand and watch the game. When the Sabres were shooting at that end, when they would dump the puck in, the trainer would kick the bottom of the boards and if he timed it right, the puck would shoot out into the slot. Home ice advantage! Several teams are starting to go back to partitioned glass as they try to find the balance between fans' vision and player safety.
Hi Ray,
With Boston having the Leafs' first-round pick this year, I have been pleased not to hear the usual debate about what sort of effort they should make to avoid finishing last. I always hate that talk because I think every team should play to win, or at least give their best effort, every time they hit the ice. And I find it distasteful when the media suggests otherwise, to be honest. This year's situation has me thinking about the draft lottery, etc. What do you think of the idea that the teams that come closest to making the playoffs should have a chance at the top pick? I think this might provide great incentive to compete right up to the end, while removing the incentive to tank in hopes of picking higher.
Thanks, Daniel
When the media suggests that players are not trying so they can get a higher draft pick, they are about as far in left field as they can be. Now management can choose to play a bunch of young guys under the guise of getting them experience - and they are getting experience - but any player in the lineup doesn't care about the draft pick mainly because he might not be around to see the pick play. You know the line, "We are making a change....and you are it!" That can and does happen a lot. I don't have a problem with all non-playoff teams getting a chance at the lottery, but I do understand the want to have the worst teams choose higher in the hope that they can be competitive again quickly.
Got a question for Ray? Send him an email at firstname.lastname@example.com!
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subset: commoncrawl


text:
Is there a way to trim all the characters before it hits a special character. For example the table has data such as "\SERVER01\printer01". I do not want to display \SERVER01\ The output i want is printer01
Please help!
asked Nov 06, 2009 at 08:00 PM in Default
edited Nov 07, 2009 at 09:51 AM
Kristen ♦
Please note that thisforum is specifically for Microsoft SQL Server, so the folk here may not have good knowledge of MySQL
Nov 07, 2009 at 09:51 AM Kristen ♦
SELECT PARSENAME(REPLACE(Col1, '', '.'), 1)
answered Nov 10, 2009 at 07:33 AM
I don't think PARSENAME is available MySQL ?
Nov 10, 2009 at 07:57 AM Kristen ♦
Yes not supported in mysql
Nov 10, 2009 at 09:34 AM Madhivanan
answered Nov 09, 2009 at 04:52 AM
What did you change? Added code tag?
Nov 09, 2009 at 10:34 AM Madhivanan
Yeah, I put
tags around your code as I thought the automatic colour coding (which you get if you use 4-space-indentation) looked a bit naff, hope you don't mind?. (In case you are not aware: if you click on the "Edited 22 hours ago" thingie by my name you'll normally see the change in the history list - it doesn't show the PRE tag though
Nov 10, 2009 at 07:55 AM Kristen ♦
Thanks for the comment
Nov 10, 2009 at 09:31 AM Madhivanan
Why does comment require minimum 15 characters?
Nov 10, 2009 at 09:34 AM Madhivanan
Stop comments with just YES / NO perhaps?
Nov 10, 2009 at 06:47 PM Kristen ♦


text:
PHOENIX (AP) - Maricopa County Sheriff's officials say a probationary detention officer caused the leak of a high pressure fire sprinkler water main at the downtown Phoenix jail.
The broken pipe flooded the downtown Fourth Avenue Jail on Friday.
It forced the relocation of 50 inmates until floors, walls and equipment dried by Monday.
Sheriff's officials say an exposed pipe on the third floor of the jail broke and leaked down two floors to the central intake area.
Fifty inmates who were part of a housekeeping detail were relocated to Tent City until their unit could be cleaned.
Authorities say some of the jail's electrical equipment was down until Monday.
The probationary detention officer has been working with the jail for less than a year and now is on administrative leave with pay.
Copyright 2013 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
35 Skyline DriveLake Mary, FL 32746
Phone: (407) 644-3535News Tips: (866) 55-FOX35


text:
Tried-It Tuesday: Get Shine-Free Skin
Written on December 7, 2010 at 6:01 am , by Fitness Magazine
It's no secret that I have an oily complexion. It seems like the more I try to fight it, the worse it actually gets. Instead of battling it with harsh chemicals and rubbing alcohol, I've learned a few tricks along the way to work with my slick skin:
Moisturize- Never skip the moisturizer. If you skimp out on moisturizer your skin actually produces more oil because it's thirsty. We like Origins Zero Oil moisturizer with Saw Palmetto & Mint. It's super-lightweight and hydrating, with a hint of salicylic acid to instantly reduce shine.
Go oil-free- Look for foundations and powders that are free of added oils that can build up on top on your already oily skin. I like MAC Studio Fix Powder Plus Foundation. It goes on smooth and the result is a matte look that helps minimize the appearance of oil.
Blot away- To get rid of excess oil during the day, I never leave the house without blotting sheets. My favorite are Clean & Clear Oil Absorbing Sheets. They soak up the oil without smudging your makeup—and they're compact enough to fit in your pocket, which is great for the on-the-go girl!
-Kari LaPrade, beauty intern
Categories: Beauty On the Go, Tried-It Tuesday | Tags: Beauty On the Go, Clean & Clear, Fitness Magazine, MAC, matte, oily, Origins
No Comments


text:
Volcker Rule debate intensifies
It's unlikely that the rule will be passed into law in its entirety.
The changes proposed by the Volcker Rule stem from the fact that many banks engage in highly risky trades in securities, derivatives and other financial instruments for their own profit -- often backed by the benefits of deposit insurance and Federal funding. This is perceived as an unnecessary and avoidable burden on taxpayers, who have little to gain (at least directly) from banks' bulked-up trading revenue figures, but much to lose as their own money is potentially at risk when market conditions deteriorate.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, after whom the rule is named, extended his full support to it in his comment on the SEC website earlier this week.
Banks, on the other hand, claim that banning all proprietary trading would be counter-productive. Firstly, a complete ban would make it more difficult for them to perform their market-making role efficiently, and would result in attempts by companies to raise capital more expensive. Secondly, banks argue that as the ban also includes hedging operations, it would actually increase their risks, as they will not be able to hedge their exposure.
Comments from representatives at Morgan Stanley against the rule can be found here, while those from Goldman's chief of staff are provided here.
It must be noted that most of the banks have already shut down or spun off parts of their proprietary trading operations, or are in the process of doing so, in response to the Volcker Rule (see Citi Continues Shedding Prop Trading Units as Volcker Rule Looms). But they continue to do everything in their power to keep the rule at bay. Even if it is to be enforced, they intend to limit the extent of the bans proposed.
The Volcker Rule is slated for implementation in July this year. While it is unlikely that it will be passed into law in its entirety as it stands now, the sheer volume of comments received for and against it begs for more consideration of the impact of each proposed change on the general public as well as the country's banking system.
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text:
Harold Burton
Harold Burton was born and raised in a Boston suburb. He attended Bowdoin College and completed his law degree at Harvard. He practiced law in Ohio and later served as the mayor of Cleveland.
Burton holds the unusual distinction of being the only Republican appointed to the Supreme Court from 1933 to 1953, a period of virtually complete Democratic control. He proved to be the most liberal of Truman's four appointments. He possessed extraordinary personal charm. As one scholar wrote, "probably no member of the...Court enjoyed greater affection from his colleagues on the bench...." But his liberal views did not always protect individual rights, as his opinion for the Court in the Bute case makes plain.
|Law School
|Terms Clerked
|W. Howard Mann


text:
DETROIT (WKZO) -- The Tigers' final home series ended in disappointment today as Detroit lost the final game to the White Sox 6-3. They still took the series 2-1, but they did not clinch the AL Central title. The magic number is now two, with six away games remaining.
For one thing, the team was working without Miguel Cabrera, who was out with groin pain. Prince Fielder still did his part and drove in a homer in the 4th, but Chicago starter Erik Johnson kept the team from driving in any big runs.
The game also gave Anibal Sanchez his first loss since July, as he allowed four runs and eight hits in five innings.
Game one at the Twins is on AM 590 tomorrow night at 7:45 PM.
Photo by Keith Allison.


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Speakers, Chef Demos, Kid's Activities, and Ask the Experts
Cooking Demonstrations
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Ask the Experts
Caldwell B. Esselstyn, Jr., MD
Presentation Title: "Prevent and Reverse Heart Disease"
Dr. Caldwell B. Esselstyn, Jr. is the author of
Prevent and Reverse Heart Disease
and more than 150 scholarly papers. Former President Bill Clinton credits Dr. Esselstyn's work as part of the reason Clinton moved to a plant-based diet. Dr. Esselstyn received his BA from Yale University and his MD from Western Reserve University. In 1956, pulling the No. 6 oar as a member of the victorious United States rowing team, he was awarded a gold medal at the Olympic Games. In 1968, as an Army surgeon in Vietnam, he was awarded the Bronze Star.
Dr. Esselstyn has served as President of the American Association of Endocrine Surgeons, organized the first National Conference on the Elimination of Coronary Artery Disease, was the first recipient of the Benjamin Spock Award for Compassion in Medicine. He presently directs the cardiovascular prevention and reversal program at The Cleveland Clinic Wellness Institute.
Dr. Esselstyn and his wife, Ann Crile Esselstyn, have followed a plant-based diet for more than 26 years. Dr. Esselstyn presently directs the cardiovascular prevention and reversal program at The Cleveland Clinic Wellness Institute.
Virginia Messina, RD
Presentation Title: "The Seven Habits of Healthy Vegans"
Virginia Messina, MPH, RD, is a dietitian and public health nutritionist specializing in vegan nutrition. She has a degree in nutrition from Douglass College of Rutgers University and a master's degree in public health nutrition from the University of Michigan.
Ginny publishes widely on topics related to vegan diets for both health professionals and the public. She is the co-author of
Vegan For Life,
has twice co-authored the American Dietetic Association's Position on Vegetarian Diets, and is co-author of a textbook on vegetarianism written for health professionals and nutrition students.
She has worked as a dietitian for the Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine, taught nutrition to dietetics students at the university level, and was the director of nutrition services for a medical clinic serving 50,000 patients at George Washington University in Washington, D.C. Ginny serves on the advisory boards of the Vegetarian Resource Group.
Ruth Heidrich, Ph.D.
Saturday Presentation Title: "A Race For Life: From Cancer to the Ironman"
Sunday Presentation Title: "Senior Fitness: Challenging Aging
Ruth Heidrich, Ph.D., Vegan Ironman Triathlete, Winner of more than 900 trophies; 6 Ironman Triathlons, 8 Senior Olympics Gold Medals, 67 marathons including Boston, New York, & Moscow; World Fitness Record at the famed Cooper Clinic, Dallas, TX; named "One of the Ten Fittest Women in North America; breast cancer survivor; vegan for 30 years; author of A Race For Life, CHEF, a cook/rawbook, and Senior Fitness.
Jill Nussinow, MS, RD
Presentation Title: "The Formula for Improving Personal
and Planetary Health = Plant Foods + The Pressure Cooker"
Most people have limited time for cooking yet still want to put great meals on the table on a regular basis. Join Jill Nussinow, MS, RD, aka The Veggie Queen, as she shares what shes learned in almost 30 years as a culinary dietitian teaching people about plant foods. For more than 15 years, shes been teaching pressure cooking. Shell share tips and techniques for choosing and using a pressure cooker to make The New Fast Food.
As a longtime vegetarian and vegan, it has been easy for Jill to share what she knows. For more than 10 years she has been teaching the McDougall program cooking segments. She teaches Inspiring Ideas for Plant-Based Eating. Jill has been on the culinary faculty of Santa Rosa Junior College for more than 20 years. She also teaches in private homes, at cooking schools throughout the US, at festivals and events, farmers markets and more. She lives in Santa Rosa, California.
Jill is the author of award-winning cookbooks, The Veggie Queen: Vegetables Get the Royal Treatment and The New Fast Food: The Veggie Queen Pressure Cooks Whole Food Meals in Less than 30 Minutes. The New Fast Food is her most recent book which has 150 vegan recipes, of which 138 are naturally gluten-free. She also stars in the DVD Pressure Cooking: A Fresh Look, Delicious Dishes in Minutes. You can see more of what she does at
and on
You Tube
Pamela Ziemann
Presentation Title: "Giving Voice to Your Cause"
Animated Storyteller, International Communication Trainer and Author, Pamela Ziemann is ready to share a unique learning experience to help you put an effective voice to your passion. Pamela has been leading communication and improvisation workshops throughout Canada, Australia, and the United States since 1996. Having overcome her own fear of public speaking, she has compassion for those she works with and a passion for effective vegan advocacy.
Much more than a communication expert, Pamela guides her clients to connect their inner passion with their outer cause. She helps them articulate their message in a way thats intuitive, thoughtful and powerful. Pamela is the author of Giving Voice to Your Cause, which blends 60 unique speaking tips with real world examples of what it takes for social enterprises to accomplish their mission.
Milton Mills, MD
Milton Mills, MD, is Associate Director of Preventive Medicine for the Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine and works as a Critical Care physician with Fairfax Hospital in Virginia and United Medical Center in Washington DC. His experience specializing in Internal Medicine and HIV disease, and in the relationship between nutrition and chronic diseases has made him extensively knowledgeable about the unique health care needs of minorities, the challenges of practicing medicine in inner cities, and the special medical and nutritional requirements of HIV+ and AIDS patients.
Dr. Mills graduated from Stanford University School of Medicine, serving as student body president of the medical school and Editor-in-Chief and Managing Editor of the Stanford Medical School newspaper. He did his internship at the University of California-San Francisco, and his residency at Georgetown University Hospital in Washington, D.C.
September 22 Presentation Title: "Flowers & the Human Intellect
This lecture addresses the question of why humans love flowers and find them "beautiful." Beauty is a biological imperative that compels behavior. Science has shown that physical beauty correlates with greater genetic health, fitness and improved survival. It follows, therefore, that finding flowers beautiful should also improve our health, fitness and survival.
September 23 Presentation Title: "Meat Eating & the Biology of Disgust"
This lecture explores the human emotion of "disgust" focusing on pathogen disgust (as opposed to moral or sexual disgust). Dr Mills argues that although people eat meat, they really don't like it and that is why humans are compelled to change its appearance, taste, texture and smell in order to find it palatable. He will show how the qualities that elicit pathogen disgust in all humans and show that these are the characteristics of raw meat. The lecture also discusses some possible reasons why humans societies might have found it expedient to use animals foods in the past when plant foods were unavailable and then point out that this no longer the case.
Mark Messina, PhD
Presentation Title: "Health Impacts of Soy Foods"
Mark Messina, PhD, is an adjunct associate professor at Loma Linda University, is the co-owner of Nutrition Matters Inc., a nutrition consulting company; and the executive director of the Soy Nutrition Institute. He is a former program director with the National Cancer Institute (NCI), where he initiated a research program on the anticancer effects of soy.
Since leaving the NCI, Dr. Messina has devoted his time primarily to the study of the health effects of soy foods and soybean isoflavones. He writes extensively on these subjects and has published more than 50 articles and book chapters for health professionals. He has also given more than 400 presentations to both consumer and professional groups throughout the United States and in 35 countries.
Jasmin Singer and Mariann Sullivan
Presentation Title: "THINK VEGAN: Ten Tips to Get You Started"
Join Jasmin Singer and Mariann Sullivan, co-founders of Our Hen House (
), as they guide you through the exciting journey of making transitions toward a vegan lifestyle. They will cover everything from the social quandaries (like keeping your cool while handling comments from friends and family) to tips on how to successfully navigate through a not (yet) vegan world (such as how to get a delicious meal at a non-veg restaurant) to some of the actual nuts and bolts of vegan eating (including ideas about transition foods, thoughts on being a junk food vegan versus eating in an optimally-healthy way, and further resources that will aid your process). Bring your pens, your questions, and your sense of humor. Be prepared to be enlightened and entertained by the hens of Our Hen House.
Ellen Jaffe Jones
Presentation Title for September 22: "Eat Vegan on $4 a Day"
Cooking Demo on September 23: "Cooking Vegan without Breaking the Bank!"
Ellen's best-selling book,
Eat Vegan on $4 a Day
rapidly rose to the publishers top seller list. Her publisher credits part of the success with Ellen's dedication and use of social media. Ellen now coaches other authors on how to build their social media "presence."
Ellen received 2 Emmys and 4 nominations as a popular TV investigative reporter and anchor for 18 years. Nowadays Ellen is a Nationally Certified Personal Trainer by the Aerobics & Fitness Association of America and is also a Certified Coach with The Road Runners Club of America. RRCA certifies most road races in the US, and is the premier national organization dedicated to promoting the development and growth of running and walking throughout the country. Ellen is also the volunteer assistant coach for a High School Girls' Cross Country & Track Team in Florida.
She runs 8 minute miles (same as when she was 28), often places in her age group at local 5K races, and can hold a 6 minute plank position. She ran her first marathon in 2010 (The Palm Beaches Marathon) and was the 5th oldest female to finish.
Be sure to like Ellen Jaffe Jones on
and follow her on
Robert Cheeke, Ed Bauer, Giacomo Marchese, Mark Eisenhart
Presentation Title: "Vegan Fitness - Different Perspectives on the Total Package"
Vegan athlete panel - Accomplished vegan athletes will share their secrets to success in athletics on a pure plant-based diet. Get your questions answered about how to get enough protein as a vegan athlete, what foods to eat before and after exercise, which exercises are best and how often to work out based on your goals, and much, much more. There will be time for Q and A throughout the panel discussion. To learn more about the presenters, visit their websites:
Robert Cheeke -
Ed Bauer -
Giacomo Marchese -
Mark Eisenhart
George Wuerthner
Presentation Title: "Ecological Impact of livestock production on the Earth"
George Wuerthner
is a professional photographer, writer and ecologist. He has written more than two dozen books on natural history and other environmental topics. He is currently the ecological projects director for the Foundation for Deep Ecology. Wuerthner has visited hundreds of mountain ranges around the West, more than 380 wilderness areas, more than 180 national park units, and every national forest west of the Mississippi.
Jiivapriya, Yoga Instructor
has been practicing yoga and meditation for 15 years. She has enjoyed teaching yoga classes for both children and adults in Portland for the past 7 years. She is also a co-founder and teacher of Tender Leaf Preschool, a Neo-Humanist school in SW Portland, which uses yoga, meditation, vegan diet, art and nature study as the base of its learning curriculum.
Suman S.Barkhas, Yoga and Tai Chi Instructor
Presentation Title for September 23: "Tai Chi for Better Balance"
Suman S.Barkhas
, Nationally certified (E-RYT-500) Yoga Therapist , Yoga teacher trainer and Tai chi Moving for better balance Master instructor trainer offering Holistic Health therapeutic classes of Yoga, Chair Yoga, Tai Chi for better balance for all levels at
Peace Health River Bend Oregon Heart & Vascular Institute.
Suman (Sodnomdarjaa) Barkhas, born in Mongolia, has traveled as a yoga monk throughout forty-six countries. He currently resides in Eugene, Oregon, working as a holistic wellness coach and has been a vegetarian for more then 21 years.
Cooking Demonstrations
Laura Theodore "The Jazzy Vegetarian"
Laura Theodore
, The Jazzy Vegetarian is a popular television personality and radio host, vegan chef, compassionate cookbook author and award-winning jazz singer and actor. She is the proud creator of the Jazzy Vegetarian, and author of Jazzy Vegetarian: Lively Vegan Cuisine Made Easy and Delicious. Laura is presently the on-camera host and co-producer of the
Jazzy Vegetarian cooking show
on national Public Television, now in its second season. Ms. Theodore has made guest appearances on ABC, NBC, CBS, USA, and she was recently featured on the Insider, Entertainment Tonight Online, News 4-NBC and CBS Radio. Laura has been featured in The New York Times, USA Today, New York Daily News, New York Post, VegNews, Family Circle, PBS Food, Vegetarian Times Online, JazzTimes, Variety, and Time Magazine, among others.
Lauras focus is on creating delicious American Classic Meals, while focusing on easy to prepare recipes. Whether you are a dedicated vegan, adopting a vegetarian lifestyle, or just want to fit a veggie style meal into your weekly menu plan, Laura demonstrates how to prepare simple, vegan dishes that will please everybody that you are cooking for. A love for good food, compassion for animals and enthusiasm for great music has created a joyous life path for Laura Theodore, The Jazzy Vegetarian.
Presentation Title for September 22: "Its Soylicious"
Laura will take you on a journey through tasty and fun ways to incorporate tofu in to your recipes. From Creamy Cucumber Soup to Pots De Crème well explore tips and tricks for enhancing dishes with tofu. And the best part is no one will ever know unless YOU tell them!
Presentation Title for September 23: "All-American Classics"
Laura will share her jazzy tips on how to make classic American fare into classic plant-based fare. Shell share some traditionally inspired recipes and full menu plans for creating mouth-watering and healthful meals. The focus will be on incorporating local produce when possible, in addition to ingredients that are available at your supermarket. Creating tasty plant-based meals for omnivorous dinner guests or finicky family members really is tasty and easy!
Christy Morgan "The Blissful Chef"
Presentation Title: Quick Protein Packed Snacks For Everyone!
If you are going to have a snack might as well make it packed with protein and nutrients. Christy will show you some of her favorite ways to get protein in your diet with easy snacks everyone will love. Learn how to make the most delicious green smoothie, how to make a kale salad full of nutrients, and a quick snack perfect pre or post-workout. Enjoy samples of Christy's delicious Bliss Protein Balls and Dreamsicle Smoothie.
Christy Morgan,
The Blissful Chef
, has been tantalizing taste buds for years as a vegan chef, cooking instructor, food writer, and cookbook author. Christys mission is to show that a whole food plant-based diet can be delicious, easy and will bring more energy and bliss into your life! Her fun and informative classes teach amateurs and seasoned veterans alike how to create simple yet delicious, sustainable, green meals using local organic produce and seasonal cooking techniques.
Christy has been seen on VegNews.com, One Green Planet, Daily Candy, Fox Good Day, From A to Vegan, and is a guest on numerous radio shows and podcasts including Martha Stewart Living Radio, Our Hen House, Vegan World Radio, and the Dr. Don Show. Her cookbook Blissful Bites is available now where books our sold! Be sure to follow her on
Robin Asbell
Presentation Title: "Big Vegan Does Sweet and Savory!"
Chef Robin Asbell
will prepare Middle Eastern Cous Cous with Dates and Almonds, Fast Broccoli-Kale Sandwiches with Tahini Sauce, and Spiced Cranberry Granola Bars, and talk about how to make delicious, whole food vegan cuisine.
Robin Asbell is the author of Big Vegan: Over 350 Recipes, No Meat, No Dairy, All Delicious (Chronicle Books Fall 2011) her third book about cooking with whole, natural foods. Her newest book, Sweet and Easy Vegan is hitting bookstores right now, bringing whole grain and alternatively sweetened vegan treat recipes to the world. Her second book, The New Vegetarian Cookbook, explores delicious meatless cuisine that even meat lovers will enjoy. She also writes for many national magazines, such as Vegetarian Times, VegNews, Clean Eating, Better Homes and Gardens, Tauntons Fine Cooking, and Real Food. Asbell has many years of experience creating fabulous food in restaurants, delis and bakeries. She also creates customized healthful meals in the homes of private clients. For more information on Robin, check out her
new Vegetarian blog
Ellen Jaffe Jones
Cooking Demo on September 23: "Cooking Vegan without Breaking the Bank!"
Ellen Jaffe Jones is the author of the best-selling book
Eat Vegan on $4 a Day
, an Aerobics & fitness Association of America certified personal trainer, Road Runners Club of America certified running coach, and accomplished endurance and sprint runner. She just placed 6th overall female in a 5K last weekend making this her 28th 5 or 10K age group win in a running race since 2008. Her 200 Meter Times in the local Florida Senior Games are :06 slower than the personal records of NCAA college girls on the University of Southern California Track Team.
Whether you're feeding an army or just a few, recipes from
Eat Vegan on $4 a Day
will show you how you can stretch your food budget without sacrificing nutrition. You'll get to taste Ellen's Load Em Up Burritos & Citrus Salad! Yum!
Be sure to like Ellen Jaffe Jones on
and follow her on
Jennifer Cornbleet
Presentation Title for September 22: "Raw Food Made Easy"
Getting your RDA of nutritious and delicious just got easier! To celebrate the release of an updated and expanded version of her best-selling book
Raw Food Made Easy for 1 or 2 People
, well-known chef and cooking instructor, Jennifer Cornbleet is sharing the secrets to flavorful, healthful meals made without cooking and without processed ingredients. Includes tastes of her Tropical Fruit Tart.
Presentation Title for September 23: "Super Drinks with Jennifer Cornbleet
Satisfying your appetite and fueling your body with nutrition has never been easier! To celebrate the release of an updated and expanded version of her best-selling book
Raw Food Made Easy for 1 or 2 People
, well-known chef and cooking instructor, Jennifer Cornbleet is sharing her secrets for great-tasting, ultra-healthy Super Drinks that will keep you fed and energized all day long. Includes tastes of her Chocolate Green Smoothie.
Jennifer Cornbleet is a nationally recognized raw-food chef and instructor and a long-time faculty member at Living Light Culinary Institute in California. She lectures and holds classes in the San Francisco Bay area and nationwide. Her website,
, is a comprehensive resource for online training and raw-food recipes, information, and products.
Del Sroufe
Presentation: Easy Dishes form the
Forks Over Knives
Del Sroufe
will be preparing salads from
Forks over knivesThe Cookbook: Over 300 Recipes for Plant-Based Eating All Through the Year
using ingredients readily available at most grocery stores.
Del Sroufe is the author of
Forks over knivesThe Cookbook: Over 300 Recipes for Plant-Based Eating All Through the Year
and has worked for six years as chef and co-owner of Wellness Forum Foods, a plant-based meal delivery and catering service that emphasizes healthy, minimally processed foods; produces a line of in-the-bag mixes; and offers cooking classes to the public. He has worked in vegan and vegetarian kitchens for 22 years, including spending time as a vegan personal chef. He lives, works, and cooks in Columbus, Ohio.
Aaron Adams
Presentation: "Making Vegan Ravioli"
In Aaron's demo, you'll learn how easy it is to make your own make your own vegan pasta dough free of eggs and dairy. Aaron will demonstrate how to create pasta dough and delicious stuffings for the ravioli. During this informative class attendees will get to sample Aaron's amazing winter butternut squash ravioli.
Chef Aaron has been working professionally in kitchen since 1995, up and down the West and East Coast. In 2003, then owner of a small meat-centric French restaurant in Jacksonville, Florida, Aaron felt that something "just wasn't right." A year later, he found himself in Portland, Oregon, following a vegan lifestyle and trying to live an environmentally and ethically responsible life. In late 2008, Aaron, alongside his partner Diane Horne, opened up Portobello Vegan Trattoria in Portland, Oregon.
Kid's Activities
Rick Reynolds, M.Ed.
Join Rick Reynolds, M.Ed., author of The EverGreen Twins Activity Book, and Marco the Molecule for a variety of fun activities, including Worm Bin Magic! Kids will investigate a working worm bin and learning everything they need to know start one at home and keep it going. Red worms are vegetarians, so they make the perfect pets for fellow vegetarians; they turn your veggie and fruit scraps into compostfast! Other free activities will include a Pollination Maze, Eco-doku puzzles, and more! The EverGreen Twins teach ecology and sustainability to kids of all ages in fun ways while integrating other key learning concepts and skills in science, math, language arts, social studies, technology, and art. Made in Portland with 100% recycled materials, the books have been well-received by kids, parents, teachers, and the press. In fact, they may be the most eco-friendly, fun, and educational book on the planet! Learn more at
Ask the Experts (Exhibit Hall)
Experts on nutrition, health, cooking, and traveling as a vegan will be available at various times throughout the day. Experts remain available both during and in between other scheduled presentations.
Wendy Abraham, ND
Dr. Abraham is a naturopathic physician in Portland. She has over 20 years of experience as a medical reflexologist helping people deal with pain. As a naturopathic physician she helps people with lifestyle changes often starting with food. Dr. Abraham promotes a plant-based diet to address many health issues including inflammation, heart disease, pain, and weight loss. She taught vegan cooking classes for The Cancer Project throughout Portland. Dr. Abraham has had two healthy vegetarian pregnancies and spends most, if not all, of her free time with her two healthy vegetarian little girls. She is currently practicing in SW Portland and accepting new patients.
Ed Bauer
Ed Bauer is a Certified Personal Trainer through the Aerobics and Fitness Association of America, American Council on Exercise, and the National Exercise and Sports Trainers Association, as well as a Certified Fitness Nutrition Coach. He is a 15 year vegan with over 2000 sessions of training experience. Ed is also an all natural NPC Champion Bodybuilder. He is available for training and nutritional counseling. Contact Ed Bauer at
to get started.
Steve Aberle
How difficult is it to find a vegan meal while traveling? Bring your travel guides and ask! Steve is a computer scientist by profession who is married to a dietitian. Their daughter moved to Britain in 1997, and they have ventured out across western Europe as extensions to family visits, finding vegan food along the way in England, Wales, Scotland, France, and Germany. Steve was raised on meat and potatoes, but has now been vegetarian for over 15 years, vegan for over 13 years, and living foods vegan for over 11 years.
Grant Butler
Grant Butler has been writing about Oregon's food scene for nearly two decades, but completely changed his perspective when he switched to a plant-based diet two years ago. Since then, he's explored Portland's thriving vegan restaurant scene, met dozens of chefs and enthusiastic home cooks, and introduced plenty of delicious recipes to the mainstream readership of
The Oregonian
with his
Going Vegan
column. Grant will share his personal journey from a burger-gobbling kid to a kale-crazed adult, including how his new food choices have changed his family's dynamics and eating habits. He'll also offer his assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of Portland's vegan community, offering a road map to where it's going and what needs to be done to get there, including a series of challenges for both vegans and omnivores designed to open hearts and minds about our shared future.
Stephanie Lucas, RN, MS, MPA
As an RN for over 25 years, Stephanie has seen first-hand how our Standard American Diet has contributed to dramatically increased rates of obesity and chronic illnesses. As a parent with a vegan teenager, she can share practical advice on motivating healthy eating. Stephanie is also a member of NW VEG's, Veganic Gardening Group, and she is knowledgeable and enthusiastic about gardening without the need for animal by-products.
Gail Nelson, MPH, RD, ACSM-CPT
Gail is a Registered Dietitian with the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics, and a Certified Personal Trainer with the American College of Sports Medicine (ACSM). Her focus is helping people achieve healthy lifestyles and weight loss using the power of plant-based foods as well as healthy exercise. As the mother of two active young boys, she draws upon her own experience to teach people how to get healthy meals on the table in a hurry. She also specializes in helping busy people "sneak in" cardio and resistance exercise throughout the day in order to meet the ACSM recommended "30 minutes of exercise most days of the week". She can be reached at
Alison Ozgur, RD
Alison Ozgur, R.D.,
is a registered dietitian, author, and motivational speaker, specializing in plant-based nutrition. She is an instructor for the T. Colin Campbell Foundation's Certificate in Plant-Based Nutrition course through eCornell and co-author of the plant-based nutrition and fitness book, Go Beyond Good. She writes monthly columns for newsletters, hosts nutrition talks and grocery store tours, and is the Washington and Oregon state coordinator for the Vegetarian Nutrition Dietetic Practice Group of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics.
Christy Whitney
Christy Whitney
holds a specialized Masters Degree in living nutrition, fasting and detoxification from the University of Integrated Science. She is a yoga teacher, colon hydrotherapist, live food chef and detox coach. She transforms her clients health and their lives by combing her knowledge, inspiration and modalities to create personalized or group programs that support her clients success and provides them with sustainable results. She feels her purpose on this planet is assisting people to find their way to freedom in health, movement and mindset.
Mark Eisenhart
Mark Eisenhart
I am a High Raw and Vegan Gluten Free Sponsored Athlete who recently competed on American Nina Warrior and will again next season. In the near future I will be embarking on several mountaineering expeditions in Greenland Iceland, and India. I am also an Actor, Transformational Speaker, and Life Coach who is garnering national publicity for dropping 215lbs and eradicating 20 states of disease in one year without surgery. In 2013 I will publish my second book describing that experience called
Changing What You Eat Changes Who You Are
. I have appeared on the CBS Show The Doctors, KGW and KOIN 6 in Portland, NW Cable News in Seattle, WBKI in Louisville, and many other TV and radio shows with several more on deck for the near future as well as in Vegan Health and Fitness Magazine and Veg World Magazine.
Northwest VEG strives to ensure that our activities are fully accessible. To request a sign language interpreter or other accommodations, please contact us at
as early as possible so we may attempt to fulfill your request.
This event will need 300+ volunteers to make it an even greater success than last year's VegFest. Want to help out with VegFest 2012? Please email
© 2003-2014 Northwest VEG -
- (503) 746-8344


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Council & Democracy | Children & Families | Culture & Heritage | Economy & Enterprise | Environment & Planning | Jobs & Careers | Education and Learning | People & Community | Safety & Emergencies | Social Care & Health | Transport & Roads |
Bus Information
Where are you going?
Wherever you want to be, there are lots of ways to make getting around Devon easy, from text messages direct to your mobile with the latest bus times, to a fully interactive bus map.
For further information on bus travel in Devon see
Devon's timetable guides go interactive!
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Better than part 1 (not saying much)
It's honestly like watching family movies. When it's your family you enjoy it and are happy to see it.
When it isn't your family, it sucks.
If you've read the book just run with it and take it with a grain of salt, I think you'll like it. Don't go expecting a masterpiece, because what home movie is?
If you haven't read the book, stay away. The book is so so so so much better.


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Now Now Oh Now set to tour to Durham, New Orleans, Miami and Philadelphia beginning September 2014.
Stop Hitting Yourself to be presented at Dallas Theatre Center in May 2015.
The Pearl Dive will take place on October 26th right here in town - save the date!
On June 2, 2014 Rude Mechs was inducted into the Austin Arts Hall of Fame.
The University of Texas Department of Theatre and Dance Presents
created by Rude Mechs
When: Sept. 10 - 14, 2014 (6 shows only!)
We are thrilled to deliver the never-before-seen-in-Austin final version of our original play The Method Gun. The presentation comprises part of our stay as the Resident Theatre Company to UT's Department of Theatre and Dance, and we are excited to share this work with the students and our longtime friends and patrons outside the University.
The Method Gun saw its official premiere at The Humana Festival of New American Plays in 2010, after a 3-week residency there finishing the piece. Since 2010, The Method Gun has toured to twelve cities, including Brisbane, Australia, has been published in Play: A Journal of Plays and Humana Festival 2010 The Complete Plays. We look forward to bringing it back home to share its final incarnation with the people that helped us create it, our Austin audiences.
The Method Gun received creation and development support from Creative Capital Foundation, MAP Fund, The Orchard Project Theatre Residency Program, The National Endowment for the Arts, The Humanities Institute, The Harry Ransom Center, and The Long Center for the Performing Arts with its 2008 presentation.
Think the arts are an important part of your civic life? We do too!
Or if you prefer to give while you shop online, you can do that via Amazon Smile
Rude Mechs is proud to serve as the Resident Theatre Company for the University of Texas Department of Theatre and Dance.
From now through the 2014/15 scholastic year, Rude Mechs will serve as the Resident Theatre Company. Through this innovative partnership of a renowned Tier 1 research university and Rude Mechs, a generation of new undergraduate and graduate students will gain a unique perspective on collectively creating new plays and managing a mid-size theatre.
For more information about UT's Theatre and Dance Department, visit jointhedrama.org.
Rude Mechs is proudly sponsored by:
Rude Mechs is a 501(c)(3) corporation.
If you would like a copy of our Form 990 Return, please contact us at our offices or via email at info AT rudemechs.com, or look it up on the Foundation Center website.
Copyright © 2007 Rude Mechanicals. All rights reserved.
Updated 11/15/2007
Website Designed and Developed by Go9Media


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Welcome to Tesco Wine by the case.
We hope you enjoy your visit.
Reference number 066220216
£47.94 per case
Equivalent to £7.99 per bottle
47 Clubcard Points
This wine is all about the Mediterranean flavours, with lots of peach, nectarine and lemon.
Made from a blend of Grenache and Marsanne, this is ripe, round and refreshingly good with seafood pasta dishes.
To enjoy this wine at its best, drink within 1 year of purchase.
Thierry Boudinaud is a winegrower and talented winemaker based in the South of France. His local reputation and contacts give him access to some of the most exciting wines produced in the Languedoc. His familiarity with the people, vineyards and climate coupled with a wealth of winemaking experience all over the world means that he can create bespoke wines.
Thierry Boudinaud
The Languedoc is in the South of France, not far from the Mediterranean sea. Soils are a mix of sand and clay. The vines for this wine are aged between 10 and 24 years.
£37.74 per case
Equivalent to £6.29 per bottle
37 Clubcard Points
£53.94 per case
Equivalent to £8.99 per bottle
53 Clubcard Points


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After I install the 1.1.2-1.1.3 OTB G-Unlock i go in installer to install the Official 1.1.3 Upgrader... but then it says that firmware 1.1.2 is required!!!!
so what now??? do i use oktoprep and upgrade to 1.1.2??
please help guys!!!
How to find the DevTeam jailbreak to 1.1.3.?
Use the iBrickr for 1.1.3 exclusive version. This update your iphone 1.1.1 to 1.1.3 direct.
The iBrick check your version, download the 1.1.3 and update direct.
Ok so I have a refurbished iphone direct from apple with 1.1.3 on it, I have no idea what the history of the iphone is or what my plan of attack should be any ideas? Should I downgrade to 1.1.1 then go from there?
for everyone that is as lost as i was here is what you should do after installing the 1.1.2-1.1.3 unlock. there are two alternatives:
A) use ibrickr 1.1.3 that upgrades your iphone from 1.1.1 to 1.1.3 (havent tested)
B) when the unlock is done, go to itunes UPGRADE ( not restore) to 1.1.2 ..then your iphone should work ( if you are using SIMs from outside US then you should use iworld found in 1.1.2 tweaks in installer)
What if i dont want to update to 1.1.3, just unlock my 1.1.2 OTB
also i strongly suggest that instead of using this tutorial ( which is not..sorry but is true..) go to i.unlock.no
this site is great.it had step by step guides, easy to understand, answers common new babies questions.
to ccscreative then i suggest to see my post...just unlock then UPGRADE to 1.1.2 w/itunes then use iworld
Instructions adjusted to reflect that devteam jailbreak requires 1.1.2.
How on earth do we upgrade to 1.1.2? We can only restore to 1.1.2, upgrade will go to 1.1.3. PLease clarify Poetic Folly on the original post. Because it seems I have bricked my phone from following the previous instructions.
Before i try to do this, i want to know, does this software unlock change the baseband in any way? it would be great if this doesn't change anything except of course the network lock.
Read the jailbreak 1.1.3 instructions in the jailbreak forum if you want to jailbreak 1.1.3.
Very easy - hold down Option (Shift if you're in Windows) when you press Update, and point iTunes to the 1.1.2 firmware instead of 1.1.3.
So, since i'm now on 1.1.1 that I downgraded from jailbroken turbosim OTB 1.1.2 and have used the Geohots unlock, now on 1.1.1 still with no signal. What is my best course of action, will it work once i upgrade back, or has it gone wrong?
is there anyway to ssh the 1.1.3 to the iphone? i have slow internet connection....
is there anyway to ssh the 1.1.3 to the iphone? i have slow internet connection....
is there anyway to ssh the 1.1.3 to the iphone? i have slow internet connection....
Poetic / Cash - Since Geo's new unlock is specific to BL4.6, what do you consider the best How-To/Wiki to use for a BL3.9 phone to get the baseband/firmware combo to the current version?
Currently, I am running v1.1.3 unlock'd and soft upgraded via the Dev Team's release with the v1.1.2 baseband (using MMI's How-To and the Installer.)
So, the goal would be to enjoy the same unlock'd v1.1.3 status but also get the baseband upgraded too. Suggestions?
is there anyway to ssh the 1.1.3 to the iphone? i have slow internet connection....
Hello I tried today with and a 1.1.2 jailbraked with 04.03.13, updated to 1.1.3 for ERROR , I just finsihed the last Geo Hot method. AMAZING!!!
my post shows how bad my internet connection speed is... sorry for that
I just had a person call me during the 1.1.3 official upgrader installer and... well... I answered and hung up. After that I got a blank screen.
Apparently if you have a sim that is "Unlocked" then calls becomes available after 1.1.2 is loaded.
Well, make sure you don't get any calls during the 1.1.3 update. I did and I was happy and sad at the same time. Strange. Had to start the process all over again.
Thanks all who made this possible!


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Home » Power Computer Tech Info
Power Computer Tech Info
The Kinetic Power Computers (T-725W and T-725WL) were designed to work with Kinetic Fluid Trainers. The graph above shows how the wattage measurement on the power computer is identical to measured wattage at the resistance unit roller at a given speed. Here's how it works:


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Quick Links
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This Genuine Baltic Amber and Milky Amber Seahorse Seahorse Pendant will bring a little of what's under the sea to your look. This seahorse has a Baltic amber eye and stripes as well as milky white amber stripes within oxidized sterling silver. It is three dimensional in front and flat in back to lay easily upon your neck, as well as being just under 1.75 inches long and .5 of an inch wide. This nautical themed amber seahorse pendant will bring a piece of the shore with you whereever you go.
Eve's Addiction.com wants you to be a happy customer. We want you to be completely satisfied with the sterling silver jewelry that you receive from us, as we only sell high quality silver and cubic zirconia cz jewelry. We do understand that you may not like your purchase for some reason.
You may return or exchange your jewelry within 60 days of purchase if you are not satisfied with it. The jewelry must be returned in its original condition for a refund or exchange. Engraved, personalized, photo, monogram, name and initial, and clearance items are not returnable or exchangeable. To return jewelry to EvesAddiction.com, please follow the steps at the following link.