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Looking Ahead: More Upside or Downside Risk?
Both Noah and I have been involved in several conversations about a current market outlook with readers on this site, Streeteasy and amongst ourselves. I therefore thought I would pose the question of: are people seeing more upside or more downside risk in this market? … and for those quant fans among you, how much on either end in terms of percentages?
Arguments for further downside risk:
- The Fed stopping its MBS purchases means rates will spike and prices will have to decrease to maintain current affordability levels.
- The rent / buy equation in NYC is still largely out of whack, even if it has come down from its previously astronomical levels … with rents continuing to fall, it makes no sense to purchase right now.
- The very slow NYC foreclosure process means we are not truly seeing the real distress in the city's boroughs; Manhattan is not isolated enough to not feel the consequences this distress
- Unemployment is not expected to fall any time soon; its ripple effects will continue to be felt, and then some, as existing owners see no need to move and all potential first-time home buyers purchased during the last 6 months, benefitting from the tax credit.
- Banks can only continue their extend and pretend game for so long before the delinquency backlog catches up with them and us; home prices will then have to be written down to reflect book valuations.
- Nation-wide, housing starts are down; little real recovery can take place without new household creation and this is not on the horizon any time soon.
- The stage is set for a double-dip housing price downturn scenario; the past six months or so was a head-fake before the second phase of this downturn kicks in.
Arguments for upside risk:
- Unemployment is a lagging indicator – the economy always gets well into a recovery when unemployment finally starts dropping (average of about 1 year after the bottom).
- Housing starts are down and excess housing inventory is being absorbed; this is an absolutely necessary step for both housing and the economy to recover.
- Rates will definitely increase and there are plenty of buyers wanting to get in before they reach 7% or 8%. This thinking has already served to decrease inventory and stabilize prices [Each 1% (100 bps) increase roughly equates to a 10% decrease in the price of the home.] Unless you see property prices dropping more than 20%, wouldn't it be worth it to lock in now?
- Manhattan's rent/buy equation can never be compared to that of the rest of the nation; it's a unique place that keeps attracting businesses, students and investors, alike. There will always be a premium for living and owning here.
- The weaker dollar is bringing international investors back into the NYC market, the momentum of which is only likely to continue.
- The fact that bonuses were back with a vengeance this year, while not providing a massive cash infusion, has certainly served to boost morale and confidence for sellers and buyers, alike.
- Lastly, the worst is behind us (and, frankly, it was nowhere near as bad as people expected); no longer do we have significant downside potential that would justify material discounts from sellers; we have turned the corner, as evidenced by an uptick in prices and activity at the low-end of the market which will only spread to the higher end.
Given that this market did have an adjustment already, the general consensus that I'm gathering from numerous conversations is that in a worst case scenario, we have another 15% left in terms of decreasing home values, and that's NOT in the sub-$700k segment. The best-case scenario I hear is a flat to low single digit increases 2010, with low single digit improvements in 2011.
So … what say you, UD readers? First, does this cover both sets of arguments? Second, which side are you leaning towards and how are you quantifying your thinking?
It is an interesting question Ana when considering the extreme moves this market went through in the last 3 years.
My answer to the question, in hindsight of course, would be something like this:
2007 --> more downside risk
2008 --> more downside risk
2009 --> with fierce adjustment, more upside risk
2010 --> with reflation from fierce adjustment, xxxxx
aha, so what is it? Now I did NOT call the bottom in March 2009 and was part of the crowd that thought the fear would lead to sustained depressed sales volume for many months more - something that reality disproved. Honestly, Im confused as hell right now considering the sustained improvement from exactly one year ago and shift of extremes and not afraid to admit it.
This market is clearly still trading at an adjusted lower level and we clearly are in very interesting times. I saw a mini euphoria for certain products where bids came in well over ask and then the buyer could NOT close..telling us what? Perhaps the market got ahead of itself and the tighter underwriting environment actually kicked into play and did its job of adding sanity to an otherwise emotional bid from a buyer that simply wanted one specific property?
While buyers dont seem to be paying peak prices, future forces of the anticipated higher cost of money + higher taxes may crimp affordability and therefore, sales volume...then again, markets are irrational, emotional, and tends to be susceptible to herd like behaviors by consumers/investors interested in the asset class. With that said, certainly this market may continue to reflate if all asset classes continue to do so over the next 8-12 months. Why not? if there is one thing I learned, is that markets can and sometimes do things that fundamentally dont make sense, and it can last much longer than the smartest people in the world think.
Given that we had an adjustment already with a slight improvement from the extreme a year ago, this question gets very confusing. I simply do not see any shock adjustment like we had with Lehman, but I also do not see sustainable 5-7% appreciation year in and year out over the near term from current levels due to bigger picture concerns.
I would add that it seems perhaps the market is quite balanced right now..That is, adjusted lower in response to the greatest credit shock/deflation we had in 100 years and slightly improved from the height of fear one year ago. If that means properties trade on average down 15-30%, rather than 25-40% one year ago, so be it..The best thing that happened is that this market adjusted lower.
I dont know how to answer this question more specifically. I guess for every individual, its different depending on their unique situation and therefore you will get multiple answers with varying justifcations.
Thank you, Noah. I will keep my response short: I hear you on all fronts. Further, I will doubly agree the market can be irrational in the short term, but longer-term rationality tends to prevail. (not to say we're in an irrational time, either.)
I'm curious to gauge others' personal calculations / perception of upside vs downside, as a soft and mushy indicator of sentiment versus any die-hard predictions, per se.
First of all, I noticed that the type of arguments for the upside and the downside risks are different in quality.
The downside risk list is more based on an evaluation of the actual, general economic environment, in which we are currently. The upside risk list looks more like trying to rationalize why Manhattan was different and prices would go up despite the general economic environment and a probable further downtrend in home prices nationwide.
I also have an issue with the first entry in the upside risk list, where it is asserted that unemployment was always a lagging variable with a lag of about 1 year, implying high unemployment is of less importance. This is a meme that has been widely spread during the Great Recession by various pundits, which, however, is not really true. Except for the previous two recessions, the unemployment rate peaked about with the end of the recessions every time after WWII. See:
No substantial lag in the unemployment rate, except for the previous two recessions. And this makes sense, since unemployment isn't just a passive variable, it feeds back into the economy via income and demand, instead. Increasing unemployment lowers demand supporting a recession, decreasing unemployment increases demand supporting a recovery. So, the question rather is why did the previous two recessions were different to the ones before and showed this lag. My hypothesis is that the effect of rising unemployment acting in favor of income and demand contraction was counteracted by an expansion of demand by an expansion of credit during the credit bubble years. However, in an deflationary environment like now, this counteracting by credit expansion likely won't happen.
So I guess it comes down to following alternatives: Does one believe Manhattan is so different that it has mostly decoupled from the state of the real estate market and price trend in the rest of the country, or even the one in the other boroughs and suburbs of New York, or does one believe Manhattan isn't different (or not sufficiently different) so that it matters after all what is generally going on?
I think, yes there is a premium for living in Manhattan, so that prices in Manhattan will stay higher than in the other boroughs and suburbs. However, this premium will still be constraint by
1. Affordability. Also people living in Manhattan must be able to afford their apartments. Whether they can do it doesn't just depend on the interest rates and income, it also depends on the already existing debt load on their balance sheets. One way this price premium materializes is certainly a price difference between Manhattan and surrounding areas up to a certain degree, but the other way this premium materializes is that people living in Manhattan accept smaller living spaces compared to surrounding areas.
2. The prices in the other boroughs and suburbs. I expect that price differences will always exist between Manhattan in the surrounding areas, but if the gradient between the price differences becomes larger and larger, then more and more people will decide to live in the other boroughs and in the suburbs lowering demand in Manhattan. So, if the prices go further down in the surrounding areas, it will put additional pressure on prices also in Manhattan.
An economic environment with debt deflation pressure, which I expect for the following years to come is not an environment in favor of inflating asset bubbles, whether in equities or in real estate. I rather expect that real estate prices relative to income will further normalize over the next years, also in Manhattan. Currently, the median price to median household income ratio is about 11 to 13 for Manhattan. In the year 2000 this ratio was about 6 to 8. Since house prices were somewhat depressed in the 90s, it is plausible to assume 6 to 8 is about the historically normal value for the price-income ratio for Manhattan. It's not 3 to 4, like for the national average, or perhaps even for the other boroughs. This is the premium for Manhattan! But despite this premium, the price-income ratio implies that it will have to come down about 30 to 50% from here over the next years to get back to a historically normal values. Since nominal incomes will increase over the years, it doesn't mean that prices themselves will come down as much. It will depend over how many years the adjustment stretches out. The longer it stretches out the less the nominal price decline to get to the historically normal price-income ratio.
Fantastic and balanced points, rootless. Thank you.
Further, yes - what you gauged in terms of the difference in the bearish and bullish arguments is my own bias :) I was trying to adequately represent the upside risk points of view ... clearly my own feelings on the matter came through. I believe the underlying economics, much to your and Noah's points, are not yet supporting a rationale for a sustainable upturn. That said, we are definitely seeing strength out there.
Ana Maria,
Thanks. And also thanks for generously overlooking the grammatical lapses in my comment, which I, as usual, only noticed after sending it out. :)
Oh, I just have noticed that there aren't only grammatical lapses in my first comment. Regarding the price differences between Manhattan and surrounding areas, it is NOT supposed to say:
"but if the gradient between the price differences becomes larger and larger"
Instead, it must say either:
"but if the gradient between the prices becomes larger and larger"
"but if the price differences become larger and larger"
What about the very real possibilities of statewide budget cuts, additional taxes, and such in your downside scenario? That surely will impact quality of life issues in unexpected ways.
rootless, that was a great comment.
I've been following the 1bd/2bd market for the last few months, thinking: "this is a good time to buy". However I noticed a few worrying trends that I'd like to highlight:
a) I noticed how availability of financing seems to be key in some products. i.e. apts in the conforming loan range (under $729k + ~$150k in downpayment) seem to be moving and even prompting mini bidding wars if it is a good property/priced right. On the other end, apartments in the $1mm+ range and in particular new construction, are suffering from lack of financing with low downpayments. This trend does not seem to be improving anytime soon given the problems in the banks and the GSEs and a rise in interest rates will only exacerbate this problem.
b) New construction and new rentals are still coming to the market in a scenario where I don't see the bigger industries in the city adding employees. This particularly pushed me out of Williamsburg where not only The Edge and other new building are having problems selling, but you also see lots of other buildings still being developed. What's going to happen when all those properties hit the market? More price adjustments?
c) The shift in bonuses from cash to stock and the continued pressure from the government/public opinion to reign in excessive compensation are not changing anytime soon and will put a brake to a significant segment of the market.
d) On the optimist side, I noticed the scarcity value that good properties have on this island. This could make a case for resistance to the downside that you see in the rest of the country or the boroughs.
Just some thoughts that are making me very cautious and I can't still make up my mind if "this is REALLY a good time to buy".
Hey man!
I think its upside actually... we will see it very soon :-) too overbought market
Noah, Ana-
I personally believe that there is upward pressure on prices as we speak. With a number of good clients in the $1.5Mil-$4Mil category, I am finding myself a bit frustrated by the speed at which quality inventory is getting snapped up. The velocity is at a rate that I haven't seen in a few years. Sellers are getting much closer to (revised and realistic) asking prices and in many cases getting full ask or slightly more. From what I am seeing on the street, I think we are setting up for a solid 7% increase in prices this year (a guess, granted).
I also believe that there is significant room for improvement on the psychological/emotional standpoint. The stock market and GDP have been improving. We all know that comps vs. last year are going to sound great (cue the NYT headlines)- although they are vs. the worst period in decades. And, I do think the jobs numbers (aided by census worker and stimulus funds finally turning into real projects) will be better than expected. So, these are all positives. The one thing that scares me on the downside is rates. If we really pop over 6%-6.5% on a 30 year conforming, that will act to deflate the market (although you will probably have a surge of buyers trying to lock in on the way up).
Andrew - I agree and been trying to discuss that early on here on this site. I think the next 2-3 quarters will in fact show the improvement that we had since 12 months ago and the reports will be mis interpreted as an improvement that occurred when the report is released, rather than 3-6 months prior!
So what we are seeing out there is yet to come through the reports, and we both think its coming.
Which is strange, because when the reports do catch up the markets may in fact start to slow again and a disconnect between buyer and seller occur again..time will tell.
Yes, it will be interesting! Wondering how much impact the bullish reports will have and if they will create another mini-peak (that i wouldn'y buy into).
Arrgghh, sorry for the typos!
I think I have to agree with Andrew and Noah We seem to be selling condos. Our broker who I met with todays is selling 1 million 2.9 million, 2.5 million , 5.8 million jumbos loosening up a bit . I think when ever you have an inflection point you get a bounce. The fear thing I believe pushed things to be excessively negative. Once buyers realize things arent going up any more and they are not faced with multiple bids best and final type deals the price falls off then throw in the extreme fear and the buyers or the pendulum swings to far to the other side I think both of those have happened. I think buyers will soon realize that we probably have reached another inflection point so expect a little bounce forward.
Meeksheep - great point! real estate taxes are on their way up, as are labor costs, both of which will push carrying costs up.
First time buyer - your observations (particularly on the scarcity end) hit home and seem to corroborate Andrew's, Noah's and my sense that quality inventory is truly moving quickly now.
Andrew - wouldn't that be something? actual price increases. This is the piece that I've personally struggled with: are actual CS prices higher now than 6-9 months ago? (And I don't mean average or median, but like on like; difficult to tell, I know). My theory until now has been: "yes, list-to-closed spreads are tighter; of course. Sellers are more realistic in pricing so discounts are shrinking. But the absolute pricing for similar/same properties is still lover." After longer discussions with Noah and others, coupled with comments like yours, I am slowly, very slooowly taking baby steps in coming to terms with the possiblity that prices may be on their way up - at least for now.
I actually just went to the NAI global market conference this morning, and although focusing on the commercial space predominantely, Dr. Linneman made a compelling case for a solid economic and local recovery ... baby steps ...
Question for all: I hear the "buyers will want to get in before interest rates spike" akin to your "surge of buyers" comment, Andrew - and there's some debate on the following: will prices then decrease to make up for the rate increases, respectively? If not, then this could be the most compelling "should buy within 12 months" pitch yet. If so, then why a surge? I would think then you'd buy when rates reach their peak (not before) and housing prices are at their lowest, lock that in, and then you only have to refinance on the way down.
I've heard opposing views on this ... any thoughts?
Jeff showed an interesting chart in a previous post showing that the interest rate cycle taking over a decade to play out. So if you are deciding on interest rates only, I guess you might need to wait until retirement. I see the situation to be complex because there are so many other factors that are important like income growth, population/demand, etc. However, in a period where rates increase quickly, it would seem to take very strong opposing forces to offset.
People have to and want to get on with their lives and live in ny. The inventory of the condos you want to live in , in the locations you want are limited. The banks are not giving construction loans for the most part and the pricing of the condominiums are not high enough and the risk is to high for developers to get real excited abut building new condominiums. so if their is any absorption of the existing inventory the market can react positively. Prices are determined at the margin. As soon as purchases start loosing out on a property they really want they will adjust their pricing upward. Sellers a soon as they sense a change in the market they will react and be more resistive tio lower pricing.
On the downside risk, is anybody concerned with the stories about China's real estate bubble? I imagine a burst there would have global repercussions, even in the far off neverland of Manhattan.
Actually, according to the conference I attended, China's coming out of the bubble fast and furious ...
Buy now or be priced out forever!!!
well anon, that is not exactly what Ana Maria was saying.
where are all the perma-bears???? dow 11,000 here we come....wall st will be paid this year...
great post rootless!
Almost all the arguments for upside risk is a joke. Only the point about rates made some sense, and that assume rates would jump up quickly, which IMO is unlikely after an initial 0.5% or so jump when the gov stop buying mbs.
The main driver for NYC is employment growth. Nobody has visibility on this one and at best we are going to be flat until we know what the new wall street may (or may not) look like. One unintended consequence of chronically low interest rates is less profit for wall street once the new rate regime becomes entrenched. Low rates are seductive but the tenuous nature of the job market is what will keep everyone on their toes.
as far as i can tell, most folks here don't get that NYC is frakked on the jobs front until wall street can redefine what it does and that is a big fat regulatory issue that won't go away for another year or two, at best. i mean, what's the big driver for employment growth here? fashion? culinary arts? advertising? publishing?
you know what would be a good topic is the impact of soft costs associated with buying into a flat market. when the asset has a built in 7% on the front end and another 7% on the back end plus a 2% annual carry, it doesn't take much to convince someone who can afford a $1.5mm or $2mm home to rent.
someone said real estate is going to appreciate 7% this year. i'd love to know where that number comes from? there, that's my bearish cross for the night!
Anyone who says "the supply of condos is limited" has to be joking or, worse, lying through his teeth. "Limited" like in Williamsburg and Downtown Brooklyn? or like the Lucida, Rushmore, Georgica and dozens more that have been sitting in the market without selling for years? "Limited" like in all of those projects that broke ground just before the expiration of the tax abatements and are currently in the pipeline? I'm not going to claim any specific number for "shadow inventory" but the thought that the supply of new development condos, many of them unable to get FHA approval or to get appraisals high enough to sell their units, is anything but enormous and the biggest downside pressure of all is... ludicrous.
China is coming out fast and furious, but the government is taking measures to thwart further speculation. My impression from my contacts in China is that when the government decides to do something, it gets done. So I'm guessing that the government will continue to pressure banks, SOEs, or anyone else until speculation is subdued.
I agree there is a lot of supply in williamsburg and along Flatbush ave in downtown brooklyn
it's limited if your looking in noho les soho
tribeca or if your in the townhouse market
but that supply is not a real substitute product
for some of the other areas there are plenty
of rentals available in the bronx that don't compete
or have a substantial impact on renting in soho
or brownstone brooklyn
I agree there is a lot of supply in williamsburg and along Flatbush ave in downtown brooklyn
it's limited if your looking in noho les soho
tribeca or if your in the townhouse market
but that supply is not a real substitute product
for some of the other areas there are plenty
of rentals available in the bronx that don't compete
or have a substantial impact on renting in soho
or brownstone brooklyn
btw, anyone see what happened to all those 2yr T-bill bidders who bought at 1.000% yesterday? crushed is a reasonable assessment. imagine buying a bond that promptly sells off 10% the very next day.....that's a pretty steep price to pay for so-called safe haven investing. next stop - no bid auction???
Sorry for the beginner's question, but can someone explain what happens when inflation seriously kicks in?
on a basic level: if I'm lock in a fixed low rate 30y mortgage, won't that protect me from unpredictably higher costs of living?
Even if my property depreciates and doesn't keep pace with inflation, at some point my monthly payments could turn out to be a bargain in inflation adjusted dollars. Or not?
Saudoso - no, locking in on a low rate today only locks you in on a low rate today. if inflation spikes, energy, insurance etc will increase. and when rates go up, it's a guess at to how pricing gets affected. but the point that many here will make is if you plan on dying in your home, you will weather the marginal increases in operating expense over time and the fact that your mortgage is your biggest cost, you will have fixed it at a low rate. bonus: you will already have a place to die (at a fixed rate to boot!)
high inflation tends to destroy hard asset values as it bring alot of additional uncertainty into long term projections, and therefore drives up lending rates and the general cost of capital more than the increase in inflation. However, whether that would be offset by the effect inflation will have on your loan principal/payments is a tricky question. Additionally, high inflation tends have a negative economic impact too, and it is not guaranteed that wages will rise as quickly as inflation. The question is complex, but I would err on the side of not wanting to own long-term, hard assets if inflation spiked drastically.
If your looking to buy a home and you intend to be here for a while 5 years plus Assuming there is inflation and you buy at a fixed rate. I believe there is a high probability that you will make out pretty well. Everything everyone said has some truth to it and is logical. But for you not to make out you need the world or at least nyc to go to hell in a handbasket. All is possible what do you really believe is probable ? A lawyer will always advise you when you enter into a business transaction as to the all kinds of possibilities that could result in your being financially harmed. Many times a lawyer will advise against the transaction. Does that mean he is giving you good business advice. Not necessarily . You have to look at the possibilities and also look at the probabilities of an event occurring. A business person tries to evaluate the probabilities and the possibilities pros and cons risk vs reward A business person
will take a chance on a high probability of the reward against a low probability of failure. Generally that makes sense in the business world and many people who do that make out very well. There are people who can not risk even the slightest possibility of failure even if the reward is great and of high probability. These people genrally are not well suited for business imho. You have to decide who you are.
I agree that there is higher, but moderate inflation, fixed rate borrowers will probably do well all things held equal. However, I don't think it takes a disaster scenario to hurt real estate values. If inflation does spike high and quickly, there would be a significant impact on both buyers and banks without the world coming to an end.
On the business end, I see the logic to your comment, but I have two counter points. One, a home is usually the dominating asset in one's wealth, unlike a business investment, which often times is a smaller part of a business asset portfolio. It would be natural for most people to be risk adverse when it comes to a home purchase. Besides, most business people are putting their firm's, not their own capital at risk. Secondly, my opinion is that you have a reasonable probability of slow appreciation in NY housing, while there is a significant probability of a large drop due to macro conditions. It's a debatable point, but the disagreement may not be on how to manage risk, but the opinion of what the risk profile actually is.
Ok lets assume no disasters but a spike in inflation. The buyer has a low fixed rate mtge.
Im assuming the buyer will live in the house for five plus years. So the buyer should not have to sell into the spike but pays the same monthly payment eventually the market recovers as it always seems to over time. Of course there risks you loose your job, insufficient savings .........
I know real estate has become a dirty word maybe as bad as banker or wall street but in the last twenty years for a host of different reasons real estate has done pretty well by most of the buyers. Ok there was a bubble that burst and some of the buyers got caught as the music stopped. And a lot of the same factors are still there going forward long term. What do they say you got to be in it to win.
Was anyone around or studied how buyers came out in the late 70's-early 80's with high inflation?
I grew up in Brasil during a period of ridiculous inflation, and my understanding was that homeowners came out fine. The significant difference is that no one had mortgages in Brasil back then and owned their homes outright, so we didn't experience this mess of millions of homeowners underwater, and homes were actual assets as opposed to just investments.
It does seem like inflation should be accounted for in one's risk management-- the question is whether it's in the upside or downside column.
In my very uneducated guess, I'd imagine inflation kicking in a few years from now and then lasting for a while. There's just too much debt and unfunded entitlements in this country. I can no longer imagine Americans actually paying their way out of it with significantly higher taxes, so it would seem that the other choice is to inflate our way out of this mess.
Saudoso - Interesting points you bring up. Brasil and most EM countries fared well in terms of housing because of low leverage but also because demand far outstrips supply in EMs in general and Brasil/Mexico especially. Furthermore, Brasil's CAIXA program virtually manages the velocity of new construction (i.e. supply never outstrips demand because developers only build what the CAIXA program will finance). The fundamentals here are very different. We don't know what the medium term impact of higher unemployment is going to do to demand for NYC housing. Ten is the new five when thinking about how many years out you need to project. I think five years is way optimistic. Hell, current inventory is double what is was at the peak which means the velocity of sales is lower and any long run price appreciation projections need to be adjusted accordingly.
>> Fred said: [March 23, 2010 10:04 PM] "as far as i can tell, most folks here don't get that NYC is frakked on the jobs front until wall street can redefine what it does and that is a big fat regulatory issue that won't go away for another year or two, at best." <<
This is just an isolated, anecdotal point, but I work on wall street (equities) and we just laid off 5 people last week. (Out of a group of about 40, down from 55 at its peak in 2008.) Business is better than it was a year ago, for sure, but we still have more people than we need to cover all we have to do now, plus whatever growth in business we see this year.
We're all busy on a daily basis, but business will have to get much, much, much, much better before we get to the point where we feel like we're missing out on business because we have too much to handle. And we won't start hiring until we reach that point.
I'll let you know when that happens!
Not sure where you're working N_R but most shops have had an amazing YEAR - amazing. Hiring is way up and especially at hedge funds and investment banks. Obama is screwing things up but he'll be gone by 2012.
re: S_U's comment immediately above about Wall Street firms doing better:
Oh, don't get me wrong - things are a LOT better now than a year ago. Late 2009 (say, Sept-Dec) was way better than late 2008 (remember Sept 2008 when Congress at first voted down the Paulson/Bernanke life-or-death legislation to bail out the banks, create TARP, etc.? It looked like the world was falling apart.)
Did we have a good 2009 compared to THAT horror show of late 2008? You betcha.
But our firm's employment is still way down from where it was in our early-2008 peak. Probably the most bullish shift is that we've actually had a few people leave voluntarily to get new jobs. But we are absolutely not refilling their slots in any hurry. We're very careful about our overhead. And the only rumblings of even thinking about hiring I've heard about are at the very junior levels - - nobody making big money.
In addition, in mid-2009, we did re-fill a number of slots that were emptied by our 2008 layoffs. However, all those new people were hired under eat-what-you-kill contracts, with very little base salary but generous cuts of whatever business they brought in.
Now, about 9 months later, we've laid off all but 2 of those people because their production wasn't terrific. We probably did them a favor, because they'll hopefully be able to get jobs with an actual base salary now.
So, I guess my general points are (and forgive me if I'm belaboring these): 1) the number of bodies we have is still way below the peak, 2) those bodies are all making lower salaries (salary deflation), 3) the hiring we're doing is merely revolving-door hiring - - trying to fill the same slots we've laid off (some now twice) with hopefully better talent for the same money.
So, the upshot is that we are having little net growth in terms of compensation and no net growth in terms of employee count. The deal and trading volume we have is rising (thank god), but it is going toward repairing our balance sheet (which hopefully will eventually help us through incentive comp and options someday), and not getting passed through in cash compensation or in new hires.
And as little fun as this all sounds, as best I can tell, we're still doing better than a number of the other midsize firms where I have friends working. To the degree that firms are re-strategizing and figuring out how best to go forward, I still am hearing about a lot more shuffling (laying off here, in order to hire there) within the organizations I'm most familiar with, than I'm hearing about net employee growth.
Again, this is just anecdotal, so we really need to hear from a variety of people at a wider set of firms of differing sizes and specialities, before we can get a more authoritative sense of the trends out there. I'm just saying that I'm happily employed, and the deterioration in overall job security has slowed, but it has not turned around for us. That's how it looks from where I stand. And, as my original post stated, we have laid people off very recently.
We'll know a lot more a quarter or two from now. I'll perk up if I hear about some friend of mine who's still looking for a job getting into a bidding war by different banks, hungry for his services. That would be nice.
Much of they hype about Wall Street last year doesn't translate directly into jobs and compensation. I've been looking into switching jobs and the feedback has been consistent. "It's better than 2008, but that's not saying much." and "There's so many highly qualified people looking right now." Remember that many hedge funds were under their high water marks, so the performance doesn't necessarily create incentive fees which is where the big money is.
This is just my speculative opinion, but I think much of the gains from last year are just a dead cat bounce. The likelihood of such performance continuing is bleak. It only takes a minor market correction to send things in the other direction. Only time will tell if the federal funny money continues the bull run.
in re: home ownership vis a vis inflation
I have a theory on inflation that goes like this: In a market like Manhattan, where the affordability of residential real estate is at one extreme (ie: high ratio of median price to median income), rates act as a drag on prices. Inflation acts as a drag in two ways- by raising rates, and by increasing other monthlies (condo/coop maintenance charges, taxes). As the monthly expenses raise, in order for the property to maintain the same ratio of price to income, price must drop.
Now, I can't tell you where employment in NYC is headed, but I am reasonably confident that rates are headed up, and if my theory is true, it means prices are coming down.
That upside risk list is REALLY damn thin.
Hell, even the big one, is pretty much wrong. The claims that bonuses would be back were WRONG>
The bonuses were supposed to hit back hard because of the cheap money and they were STILL down major from peak (30% or so)... and next year doesn't look any better with less cheap money.
"Rates will definitely increase and there are plenty of buyers wanting to get in before they reach 7% or 8%"
How is that any different from the fear years ago? If anything, folks have gotten used to low rates and might not fear them going up. This is one is REALLY stretching.
"Lastly, the worst is behind us (and, frankly, it was nowhere near as bad as people expected); "
Really? People were expecting worse than the longest and deepest recession since the great depression? People were expecting a 60% drop int he stock market? People were expecting MORE than 20-30% drops in Manhattan RE?
Gotta say COMPLETE BS there... folks were fighting tooth and nail that there wouldn't be a decline at all!
"Unemployment is a lagging indicator "
Yes, unemployment is normally a lagging indicator but that it started early doesn't mean it ends early... hell it might mean we have even more. This is just lousy logic.
Try again, toots.
This is a great thread going and there are lots of good points being made. I'm going to post a question on the latest thread so I get some responses, but the main question I have is:
A comment on inflation:
We have to be careful in understanding exactly what goes into the inflation metrics. For CPI, the largest component is rents, so if you have a large CPI number it probably means that rents are going up pretty rapidly as well. This likely means that nominal wages are going up too in a lockstep inflationary spiral.
In this kind of environment, the fundamentals of real estate prices start to look a lot better very quickly - even in Manhattan where these fundamentals are out of whack even after last year's adjustment. The rising financing rates will put a dampener on things, sure, but the effect should be offset from an investor's perspective by decreasing price/rent ratios. What this means - and this is a bit of a guessing game - is that prices probably stay roughly steady in real terms (maybe a slight decline in markets heavily dependent on financing). Nominal prices, however, will definitely rise.
That's good news for all those with low fixed rate debt (mortgage or otherwise). Consider also, that even if you can't sell, you should be able to rent your place out to a third party at a price that will more than cover your mortgage payments. And when the country exists the inflationary episode (all things have an end), and rates come down, owners should be in a really, really good position - because rents will be higher and stay higher, ditto for wages. Pretty sure that everyone who bought before 1970 and sold after 1980 has done quite well for themselves.
Having said that, people have started to throw the term "inflation" around while referring to phenomena that have nothing to do with CPI. Like relatively isolated energy price inflation (circa 2007). Or gold price inflation. Sometimes just to an increase in monetary base (which may cause inflation, but doesn't necessarily do so). For these events, I don't have an answer. Maybe, if energy begins to consume an ever larger portion of people's budgets, real estate affordability metrics start to shift enough to put a dampener on prices. But it's hard to tell.
Just wrote a longish response only to have it disappear into nothingness... arghh.
Will keep it short this time - on the topic of inflation vs. RE prices.
Why do so many people only look at the effect of inflation on interest rates? That's a secondary phenomenon. Let's keep in mind that by far the largest component of CPI is rents (43%). So it's highly unlikely that we could have a large CPI without having large rent increases. And if rents increase, wages probably do too (whichever way the causation goes, correlation is gonna be there). With that on every funamental metric, real estate prices will start getting back to normal very quickly, even in such out-of-whack place as Manhattan. This argues for (probably) steady to slighly lower RE prices in real terms and (definitely) higher prices in nominal terms. Good news for all those with a fixed low-rate mortgage! And when the country does exit the inflationary period and rates come down RE should start performing better in real terms too.
So unless you envision high inflation due to rapid increases in food, transportation and medical costs while rents are steady (this is a tough case to make), real estate is not a bad asset to hold.
But then again, people have started using the term inflation to refer to anything but CPI - from oil prices or gold prices down to (this one makes me mad) mere expansion in M1 money supply. These days, some of the stuff you read and hear boils down to this idiotic argument: "Deficit! Therefore, high inflation!" And if that's what one has in mind, then it's indeed hard to predict where RE prices will end up going.
Anyway - inflation is not something that RE buyers in Manhattan or elsewhere should worry about too much. There are plenty of worries out there of much, much bigger magnitude, like (for Manhattan) price/rent, income/rent, falling rents, long term uncertainty over wall street as a place where everybody makes a ton of dough, rising interest rates (with or without inflation). Inflation should not be on that list.
found it in junk folder neo, published it!
Well, that wasn't any shorter at all! Thanks Noah - but feel free to delete either one, as it's basically duplicative.
I don't understand why the rent/buy equation in Manhattan would differ from the rest of the country. It's clear why people would pay a premium to live in Manhattan, but that should affect both sale prices and rents, shouldn't it? I would expect both prices and rents to be proportionally higher, and for the price/rent ratio to be the same. If the price/rent ratio is is higher in Manhattan, doesn't that mean Manhattan sales prices are too high, or rents are too low, or both?
a worst case scenario, we have another 15% left in terms of decreasing home values, and that's NOT in the sub-$700k segment. The best-case scenario I hear is a flat to low single digit increases 2010, with low single digit improvements in 2011.


text:
Bluetooth World Cup Kicks Off
Time for the world cup, but it isn't football or rugby. It will however, likely change the playing field of technology, as it is the Innovation World Cup.
This week the Bluetooth Special Interest Group (SIG) announced that it is once again looking for ideas and prototypes in the areas of health care, sports and fitness, automotive, entertainment, and more, that use Bluetooth technology version 4.0, for this year's edition of the Innovation World Cup (IWC). This competition is now in its third year, as the trade organization contest calls on developers, entrepreneurs and students to submit concepts for applications making use of the low energy feature of Bluetooth v4.0.
"We have seen some powerful ideas and prototypes in our past two competitions and this year should be no different, especially as v4.0 commercializes over the course of 2011," said Michael Foley, Ph.D., executive director of the Bluetooth SIG. "Bluetooth wireless technology offers enormous potential for the development of innovative, wireless solutions in a wide range of markets. The low energy feature of Bluetooth v4.0 allows for low cost and low power wireless connectivity, while also retaining the simplicity, security and massive install base that is inherent with Bluetooth technology. That's a lot of functionality to play around with for this competition."
Entries for 2011 IWC competition are now being accepted, and the deadline for submissions is September 14. Finalists' ideas and prototypes will be presented at MEDICA in Dusseldorf in November 2011 and at CES in Las Vegas in January 2012, where international audiences will have the chance to rank the finalists. The Innovator of the Year award will be announced and presented at ispo in Munich, also in January 2012. The Innovator of the Year will receive prize money of USD 5,000 and a Bluetooth Qualification Program voucher worth up to USD 10,000, as well as an Ellisys Bluetooth protocol analyzer.
Innovation World Cup Official Website

subset: commoncrawl


text: Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Al Hunt, executive editor at Bloomberg News, talks about Texas Governor Rick Perry's comments on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. Perry, finishing his first full day of campaigning for the U.S. Republican presidential nomination in Iowa, said it would be "almost treacherous -- or treasonous" for Bernanke to increase stimulus spending before the 2012 election. Hunt, speaking on Bloomberg Television's "InBusiness With Margaret Brennan," also discusses Billionaire Warren Buffett's call to Congress to raise taxes on the nation's wealthiest individuals to help cut the U.S. budget deficit. (Source: Bloomberg)


text:
Jake and Amir: Rick Roll [Click to watch]
It'll make sense when you watch it.
that's it, that's the show, literally just a five minuet loop of this every episode.
The CollegeHumor Staff Blog is the official Tumblr of CollegeHumor.com's staff. Here you can find regular updates from some folks with way too much time on their hands, plus the best and newest pictures, original comedy, links, articles and videos from CollegeHumor.com.
Send us all the funny! Submit stuff to CH's Tumblr


text:
"These invitations are gorgeous! Even prettier in person! They arrived in less than one week. We changed the wording to fit our needs for a baby shower invitation and they look wonderful! I would highly recommend these!"
"I will be celebrating a milestone birthday but didn't want that number to be the focus of the day, so as soon as I noticed this particular card and phrase, I knew I had to have it!! Card stock is great, design is classic and different exactly what I was looking for; service is wonderful and delivery quick. I would highly recommend anyone to check out this site - you'll be honestly glad you did."
"Good design to use for multiple events as you can personalize all text except for "Celebration"; honoring; and RSVP. Used for a post wedding celebration."
"Turned this into a surprise party invite - LOVE the colors (we went with the teal tones - so fresh). Used the scalloped edge which created a really fun profile to the cards. Good stock, great print quality, highly recommend! Ordered the gold shimmer envelopes that came in the wrong size but they are fixing it for me ASAP."
"Everything about the card was perfect - all I did was change the text to my party specifications. So easy to do and order."


text:
Why? - By Torpedo or Crohn's
Why?'s record Alopecia seems to be a staple on my iPod; something I throw on when I don't know what else to listen to. The penultimate track to the album is the downtrodden, defeated "By Torpedo or Chron's." Yoni Wolf is uncompromisingly personal, and the song benefits greatly from that. It's not self-pitying ever, just observant.


text:
does not include shipping and tax
1-year limited warranty
List Price $14.95 Save $5.00 (33%)
Want it delivered 09-23-2014?
Order it in the next 13 hr and 2 min and choose Next Day Air Morning at checkout. Details
Average Customer Review4.5 (169 reviews)
Create an online reviewand share your thoughts with other customers
Things I liked:It protects the integrity of the pellets as you carry them afield.
Things I would have changed:Nothing.
What others should know:Works well for my break barrel. Will not work with a side lever. BJ.
Things I liked:It performs exactly as designed. Works Great.
Things I would have changed:Nothing!
What others should know:Get yourself one even if you don't intend to use it with gloves. It is much easier to handle the pellets using this devise.
Things I liked:Easy to load, I've got big enormous fingers lol so the ease of loading my magazines is amazing
Things I would have changed:Not a thing except maybe to make a Pellet Pen longer to hold more pellets
What others should know:I'm sure most of you already have one but if you don't spending $10 not a bad investment for something like this
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Compatible with Pellet Pen, Holds 20 .177-Cal Pellets


text:
(Source: xtremotivation, via kickin-asphalt)
(Source: xtremotivation, via kickin-asphalt)
Morning On Mars
Martian sunrises, as seen by the HiRISE orbiter
(Source: wordlesstech.com, via taylortargaryen)
Dream a Little Dream of Me - The Mamas & The Papas
(via taylortargaryen)
— Teal Scott (via ethereal-sound)
(Source: carpethedamndiem, via ethereal-sound)
Atonement by Ashley Chan
(via taylortargaryen)
(Source: voldermorte, via khaleesidragonstone)
(Source: dailydoseofstuf, via manprem--kaur)
An update on my OITNB piece with four added characters-Yoga Jones, Taystee, Poussey and Pennsatucky
Kara Goucher sings with Oiselle, no more Nike for her.
Her and Lauren Fleshman. Oiselle is my new favorite thing.
(via peace-love-crosscountry)
(Source: onekissfromyouu, via dibdibdibdib)
— Ken Chlouber
(Source: days-run-wild-training, via overcomingeverydistance)
Oy oy oy
(Source: nymheria)


text:
Specious slogans dominate key midterm Senate battles in Appalachia, burying West Virginia coal chemical disaster
On Monday, President Barack Obama is expected to announce a new Environmental Protection Agency regulation to cut CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants by 30 percent, setting a cap that will require states to trade or shift toward clean energy alternatives. U.S. Senate candidates in pivotal coal-producing Appalachian states, however, have already fired the opening salvo in the next battle over dirty coal.
It was a sunny March morning when Ohio State Sen. Nina Turner (D) and her small band boarded the No. 4 bus, beginning their trek from the Walnut Hills neighborhood of Cincinnati to a proposed new county Board of Elections in Mount Airy.
The trip, she said, was meant to show how a decision to move early voting from downtown to the suburbs would make it extremely difficult for Hamilton County voters that didn't have a vehicle.
In its 2013 decision in Arizona v. The Inter Tribal Council of Arizona, the Supreme Court ruled 7-2 that Arizona's proof of citizenship law for voter registration violated the 1993 National Voter Registration Act (NVRA).
In 2004, Ohio had the longest lines in the country on Election Day, with some voters—particularly in large urban areas—waiting as long as seven hours to vote. A DNC survey estimated that 174,000 Ohioans—3 percent of the state's electorate—left without voting. George W. Bush won the state by just 118,000 votes.
North Dakota Gov. Jack Dalrymple makes four Republican governors who've decided to back an expansion of Medicaid to their poor residents under President Barack Obama's health care law.
South Dakota doctors are urging Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) to expand Medicaid under Obamacare, warning that a failure to do so will hurt hospitals financially and raise health care costs for people with private insurance.
PIERRE — Republican leaders in South Dakota had hope Monday that the U.S. government would let them cover only half the people federal law calls on South Dakota to add to Medicaid.On Tuesday, that hope was quashed.
With more red states moving toward adopting the expansion of Medicaid under Obamacare, a Democratic-leaning group is targeting a series of radio ads at one that could actually do it: Nebraska.
The spots by Americans United for Change contrast Gov. Dave Heineman's (R) request for a new $3.3 million state plane with his refusal to pay the state's relatively minor share of the cost to expand Medicaid.
LINCOLN — A group of state senators predicted Tuesday that, given more time, they will eventually win approval of an expansion of Medicaid.
The expansion for states that's a voluntary part of the new federal health care law was blocked by opponents this year in the Legislature.
Nebraska legislators spent the past year crafting a conservative version of Obamacare's Medicaid expansion that they hoped would gain support in a pretty red state. But after a failed vote in the state legislature Wednesday, the Medicaid expansion is officially dead in Nebraska this year.
So far, 25 states and Washington, DC., have expanded their Medicaid programs in 2014, the first year of Obamacare coverage. With some exceptions, these are mostly blue states that joined the expansion, which was made optional by the Supreme Court's 2012 decision on the health care law.
CWA devised a simple plan for which they were uniquely suited: drag TPP out of the shadows and into the light - one city at a time - using a medium they understand intimately: Daily Newspapers!
Two CWA members - Dave Felice in Denver, CO and Madelyn Elder in Portland, OR have started the ball rolling. We just need to keep up the momentum leading up to a big day of petition deliveries.
Step 1 is to send an Op-Ed to your Daily Newspaper.
MoveOn.org Petition - Congress Don't Renew Fast Track
Public Citizen Petition - Congress Must Reject Fast Track Authority
MoveOn.org Petition - Stop the Trans Pacific Partnership
CREDO Petition - Stop the Massive Corporate Power Grab
If your Representative is not currently a cosponsor of HR 1000 they may not completely understand how important full employment is to your community; click on your state at the bottom of this page to see all the cosponsors in your state. Nothing sends a stronger message to a Congressional member than a personal visit to a district office by a voter with a written request. Phone calls and emails are incredibly important but nothing gets attention like a personal visit. Our Educate Congress page has information and a sample letter. Print the letter, sign it, deliver it.


text:
2 tablespoons butter1 tablespoon olive oil1 cup chopped fennel1 cup chopped leek1/2 teaspoon garlic salt1/4 teaspoon ground black pepper 1 (10-ounce) package frozen chopped spinach, thawed and squeezed dry1 (8-ounce) package cream cheese, softened1/2 cup grated Parmesan cheese1 (17.5-ounce) package frozen puff pastry sheets, thawed• In a medium sauté pan over medium heat, heat butter and olive oil, until butter is melted. Add fennel, leek, garlic salt, and pepper; sauté 6 minutes, or until tender. Add spinach; sauté 3 minutes. Add cream cheese and Parmesan cheese, stirring until melted.
• Roll one puff pastry sheet into a 13-x-11-inch rectangle. Spread half of spinach mixture over pastry, leaving a 1/2-inch border.
• Beginning with the long side, roll up, jellyroll style. Repeat procedure with remaining puff pastry and spinach mixture. Wrap tightly in plastic wrap; chill 2 hours, or up to 2 days, if desired.• Preheat oven to 350°.
• Lightly grease baking sheets. Cut rolls into 1/4-inch thick slices and place on prepared sheets.
• Bake for 25 to 30 minutes, or until golden brown.


text:
How to Identify Real San Marzano Tomatoes
When it comes to canned tomatoes, one name reigns supreme: San Marzano. But how can a small town near Naples, Italy produce enough tomatoes to fill the supermarket shelves year round? Easy — it doesn't. Here's what to look for to make sure you aren't paying premium prices for San Marzano fakes.
Gusti Blog offers a few tips from the Cosorzio San Marzano for identifying the real deal when buying San Marzano tomatoes. The tomatoes are only sold in cans, either whole or in fillets, so jarred tomatoes or those that are labeled "puree," "chopped," "diced," "sauce," or "organic" are fraudulent. (The Cosorzio does not regulate organic labeling.)
On the can, look for the words ""Pomodoro San Marzano dell'Agro Sarnese Nocerino D.O.P." and the symbols of the Cosorzio and the D.O.P., the latter of which identifies European regional food products that are protected by law. The Cosorzio also assigns a number to each can, labeled as "N° XXXXXXX."
If the tomatoes taste good, we honestly aren't picky about where they were grown, but we definitely don't want to pay more for a product that is claiming to be something it's not.
• Read more: Buy Real San Marzano Tomatoes... from a Merchant You Trust at Gusti Blog
What do you think? Are real San Marzanos worth the extra cost?
Via the New York Times.
Related: What's the Deal With San Marzano Tomatoes?
(Images: Gusti Blog; Flickr member gezellig-girl.com licensed under Creative Commons)
9 Comments
Interesting! Thanks!
Aren't San Marzanos a 'variety' of tomato (like Brandywine or Amish paste) that can be grown...anywhere (like my back yard:) ???
They may only be a variety that can be grown anywhere, but that doesn't mean they are San Marzano. It the same as with Champagne. Would you spend $30 on a bottle of "Champagne" from Italy? I certainly wouldn't want to waste my money. Nor would I buy a premium "Tequila" for $45 from Guatemala. Region specific labeling of food is nothing new, and this is great info to have. Thanks.
I imagine the controlled labeling is only for San Marzano tomatoes that are canned, where the buyer can't see the product and has to rely on the producer's word.
I don't even care that the canned tomatoes I buy for homemade pizza sauce aren't San Marzanos, even though they're marked as such. I keep buying them because I think they taste the best on the pizza I make. Buy what you like!
The ones I grow say "San Marzano" on the seed package.
Good enough for me.
I understand that the genuine imported San Marzano's are grown in a specific region which has a lava based soil which contributes to the flavor.
I would totally buy champagne from Italy for $30 and $45 tequila from Guatemala. Just because a country or region discovered or invented a process/product, it doesn't mean that they're the only ones who do it well for all time.
Or were you making a point about terms so old that most everyone uses them as a generonym (my husband found this word: something specific, used a a general term for all like things) but now there's a movement to reclaim them only for their older, stricter use? I think that movement is silly.
@Denisegk, I think you might not be getting the point. You are saying that it is OK to sell fake products under their original names?
Well, Americans have been living under these circumstances for so long, they don't even know the real things anymore.
Just think of the terrible products being sold as "cheese" in practicallly all US supermarkets! Or the watery beverage called "beer" here... Or think of the tea bags who are literally containing the leftover dust swept up from the floor after the real tea had been put into the shipping containers... (Americans think tea comes from tea bags... yuck!)
There is a huge difference between the original San Marzano tomatoes and those who only call themselves by that name. The problem is that this is completely legal in the USA. You can fake a product and call it (sell it!) by its original name! In the countries of the origins this would be a crime (fraud), but here you have the "Freedom" to sell fakes... Is that really what you mean? Is that what you support?
Well, OK, you can buy your fakes, your local supermarket is full of them. But for those who know the difference, those who want to get their hands on the real things, they should at least know where to get them. I know my sources! My tea comes from Bremen directly from the importer, I get real (raw) milk every 2 weeks from a local store, and my italian slow food comes from Gustiamo! They know their stuff, and they go so far to even inform their customers about items they should avoid (like truffel oil).
There is a lot of money to be made with truffel oil, but the Gustiamo people are integer enough to say in public that you should not consume that. They are not selling it at all!
Oh, and if you really would pay 40 $ for fake Champagne from Italy, then you really have no idea what you are talking about. Or you have too much money...
I am from Germany, and I know by experience that these name protections in the original areas make perfectly sense. The fakes from elsewhere are not the same.
It is OK when someone tries to copy a successfull product, as long as he uses another name. Then the customer knows what he is paying for, and he can make an intelligent decision. But selling fakes under the original name is simply fraud, and I am angry that this is allowed in the USA, where I am living now.


text:
The Venice Film Festival
This was, nevertheless, A colleague I'll call The director filled his The film is far more than Scorsese said at his press Not surprisingly, when the On its own terms, The Entirely comprehensible Among the festival's I saw films from Poland, That leaves the U.S., the Boys Don't Cry, In the deliberations of Finally, two American movies Then there's David
my first time at the Venice festival and I must say I found it a big improvement
over Cannes, more leisurely and removed from the marketplace, and with a higher
percentage of good films. While it offered a steady parade of stars–Tom
Cruise and Nicole Kidman promoting the European release of Eyes Wide Shut,
Brad Pitt, Kate Winslet, Antonio Banderas, Meryl Streep, Catherine Deneuve and
such–it was most welcome simply for allowing time to think and converse.
David, a veteran critic from Down Under, told me of his first time at the festival.
It was 1966, Roger Corman's The Wild Angels was Venice's unlikely
hit and the festival threw a spectacular closing night party at the Doge's
Palace. The champagne flowed freely, David recalled, and he eventually had to
repair to the restroom. Relieving himself, he looked up and was stunned to see
the next urinal occupied by none other than Fellini. Overcome at the sight of
his idol, the young critic turned to introduce himself–and peed all over
Fellini's shoes.
stricken admirer's ears with curses, David sheepishly recalls now. But
perhaps Fellini would be even less happy at what has been done with his–and
his generation's–legacy since then. The point was forcibly made by
the tribute to Italian cinema that Martin Scorsese screened on Sept. 11, the
festival's concluding day. A companion to his Journey through American
Movies, Scorsese's project is provisionally titled Il Dolce Cinema;
he screened 90 minutes of what is projected to run three and a half hours when
finished, and I can't wait to see the final product.
an intelligent, illustrated history lesson. Repeatedly relating the movies he
covers to his own discovery of them as a movie-intoxicated kid growing up in
Little Italy, Scorsese delivers an exegesis as illuminating, thought-provoking
and revelatory as it is impassioned. The portion he showed opens with the first
Italian film he saw, at age five, Paisan, and goes on to interweave commentary
on the development of neorealism and the genius of Roberto Rossellini with inviting
detours into the work of De Sica, Antonioni and others.
conference that he undertook the project because he feels that "cinema's
past is slipping away from us," especially among young audiences who dismiss
films that aren't current and American. But even viewers who are familiar
with the films that Il Dolce Cinema surveys are likely to find themselves
astonished and stirred by the overwhelming vitality on view as Scorsese marshals
detailed clips from the likes of Open City, The Bicycle Thief,
Stromboli, Gold of Naples and L'Avventura. The years
covered, 1945-'60 (the final version will stretch through 1970), look from
this distance like a veritable renaissance, one that looms brilliantly but dismayingly
over the relative barrens of Italian and most European cinemas of the last 20
years, a period so retrograde it might well be filed under the heading "peeing
on Fellini's shoes."
festival handed out its awards a few hours after Scorsese's presentation,
the top three went to films from the two countries that have counted
for something in the last decade–China and Iran. Most critics at Venice
were sure that Abbas Kiarostami's The Wind Will Carry Us, easily
the most magisterial work in the festival, would take the Golden Lion, but this
being the year of screwy juries (witness the farcical results at Cannes), the
Iranian came away with the runner-up Jury Grand Prize, while Zhang Yimou's
Not One Less won the top prize and Zhang Yuan's Seventeen Years
got the de facto third-place award for Best Direction. (Kiarostami announced
in his acceptance that this would be his last competition. Whether this was
an oblique case of sour grapes or, as he stated, a considered decision aimed
at clearing the way for younger artists is anyone's guess. Could be both.)
Wind Will Carry Us is a resplendent and endlessly fascinating film, a far
brighter and more expansive work than the severe, suicide-themed Taste of
Cherry. Filled with Kiarostami's lyrical appreciation of landscapes,
it follows a tv news crew on an assignment to cover a strange funeral ceremony
in a remote village in Kurdistan. Yet as gorgeous and intriguing as the film
is, it is also very difficult by mainstream or even conventional art-house standards
because it so relentlessly strips away the normal connecting threads of explanation
and drama; in fact, a sizable number of its characters aren't ever seen,
but are heard from behind doors and walls. Clearly this represents a deliberate
and unequivocal decision by Kiarostami to develop his poetic style at the expense
of commercial appeal, and it's likely to mean that Wind will please
this amazing director's fans without expanding their numbers appreciably.
It's perhaps his least accessible masterpiece.
if less vaultingly ambitious, the two Chinese films suggest their directors
veering toward craftsmanlike conventionality in order to avoid the wrath of
the Chinese authorities. Like a sweeter, softer-edged descendent of his previous
Golden Lion winner, The Story of Qui Ju, Zhang Yimou's Not One
Less is a comic melodrama about a stubborn 13-year-old girl who faces unusual
challenges as the substitute teacher at a poor rural school. Though replete
with great touches and Zhang's consummate skill with actors, it's
essentially what a friend derides as "UNESCO filmmaking" (indeed,
it won the UNESCO prize at Venice!). A tale of a girl who kills her goody two-shoes
sister in a rage, and emerges from prison 17 years later to face her broken
parents, Seventeen Years, meanwhile, is very moving and the most solidly
mounted of Zhang Yuan's films; it's also a lot safer politically than
his gay-themed East Palace, West Palace of two years ago.
Anglophone features, two that are headed for my 10-best list and, more immediately,
the New York Film Festival (which opens Sept. 24 at Lincoln Center) come from
festival stalwarts. Mike Leigh's delightful Topsy-Turvy, a plush,
enthralling account of a crucial turn in the career of Gilbert and Sullivan,
doesn't appear to be a result of Leigh's usual method of developing
a script through workshops with actors, but according to Leigh, it was. It also
deservedly won Jim Broadbent Venice's Best Actor prize. Jane Campion's
Holy Smoke, which teams Kate Winslet and Harvey Keitel in a pastel-hued
satire of religious cults and family dysfunction, reminded everyone of Sweetie
yet divided critics down the middle; though admitting the story's occasional
weaknesses, I was knocked out by the mastery of Campion's style.
Korea and several each from France and Italy that almost surely will never be
seen on these shores, and rightly so in most cases; the weakness of various
national cinemas was evident in the festival's difficulty in finding credible
selections. Two French-language titles likely to play here weren't much
better, though. Despite a Best Actress-garnering performance by the great Nathalie
Baye, Frederic Fonteyne's Une Liaison Pornographique, a ferociously
banal "erotic" melodrama aimed at female audiences, is so old hat
that it'll probably do solid business in the U.S. Not so Claire Denis'
Beau Travail, which transfers Melville's Billy Budd to the
French Foreign Legion for an effect that's aridly formalistic and little
else; it's a surprising misfire from an intelligent and talented director.
300-pound gorilla of national cinemas and a sure presence at any festival that
wants to fill seats. Artistically, Venice's American entries were all over
the place. Though the slightest of Woody Allen comedies, Sweet and Lowdown,
about a 20s jazz guitarist who imagines himself Django Reinhart's nearest
rival, features nice performances by Sean Penn and Samantha Morton. Crazy
in Alabama, which stars Melanie Griffith and young Lucas Black, is one of
those seriocomic movies about the South that's top-heavy with wackily lovable
eccentrics and grating cultural cliches. The directorial debut of Antonio Banderas,
it's enough of a crowd-pleaser to hand the actor a second career. Less
successful but sure to be aggressively marketed, Lasse Hallstrom's The
Cider House Rules translates John Irving's book (he scripted the film)
to mixed effect. While Tobey Maguire and Michael Caine do strong work in the
leads, the movie's script grows less focused as it progresses, and founders
on some of the vulgar and anachronistic sexual display that now seems an inescapable
part of the Miramax house style.
the latest from producer Christine Vachon, may not have anything very profound
to say about the real-life murder of Midwestern crossdresser Brandon Teena,
but it's an engrossing, sharply mounted debut by first-time director Kimberly
Peirce that features a number of striking performances, most notably by the
mesmerizing Chloe Sevigny. In any case, Boys looks like the best movie
ever made compared to the aggressively ugly and stupefyingly tedious Julien
Donkey-Boy by Harmony Korine, the elfin egomaniac who wrote Kids.
One might bemoan Korine's ascent except for the fact that his arty twaddle
only stands to fool clueless festival and museum programmers; the public will
surely stay away in droves.
Venice's international critics jury (which I served on with writers from
eight other countries), Kiarostami's film had a close rival in Jesus'
Son. Alison Maclean's second feature struck some critics as the competition's
freshest and most exciting discovery. Although its script doesn't fully
crack the challenge of weaving a collection of short stories (by Denis Johnson)
about a heroin bum into a dramatic whole, Maclean's subtle direction and
the film's performances–by Billy Crudup, Samantha Morton, Holly Hunter
and others–are as accomplished and arresting as I've seen in an Amerindie
film this year.
that seem headed for high-profile debuts both feature deliriously imaginative
scripts. Being John Malkovich, penned by Charlie Kauffman and well directed
by MTV veteran Spike Jonze, has John Cusack as a put-upon artiste who discovers
a secret door into the brain of actor Malkovich (who gives a deliciously self-mocking
performance). Costarring Cameron Diaz and Catherine Keener, the film makes good
on its surreal premise with a breathless series of twists and surprises.
Fincher's The Fight Club, in which charismatic weirdo Brad Pitt
lures normal guy Edward Norton out of his Ikea-perfect apartment into an underground
life of fistfighting and militia-style vigilantism. A lot of European critics
in Cannes hated the movie, calling it fascist and worse. Personally, I only
cringe at the stupidity it will provoke from op-ed pundits across the U.S. To
me it's a fascinating and bravura pop exploration of the contemporary male
psyche, one that's both a sly social critique and a vivid dream journey.
One thing I'd put money on: It'll be one of the year's biggest
hits, thanks to tons of repeat viewing by younger males. Pitt's sparkplug
performance is one reason for that; it's a career high point, an electrifying
mix of charm and menace.
This was, nevertheless,
A colleague I'll call
The director filled his
The film is far more than
Scorsese said at his press
Not surprisingly, when the
On its own terms, The
Entirely comprehensible
Among the festival's
I saw films from Poland,
That leaves the U.S., the
Boys Don't Cry,
In the deliberations of
Finally, two American movies
Then there's David


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Libya calls for foreign companies to invest in its oil sector
On Tuesday, July 23, Libya's Foreign Minister, Abdel Rahman Shalgham, called for foreign companies to invest in the country's rich oil sector. Shalgham added that Libya is willing to form alliances with foreign companies for the exploitation of its oil resources.
"We are planning to modernize the wells whose productivity has dropped, as well as the petrochemical industry, including the al-Zawiyah refinery which is waiting to be exploited by international companies," Shalgham told AFP news agency.
Libya is inviting US firms to reinvest in the country's oil sector as it has prior to the 1996 Washington-imposed Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA) which aimed at preventing companies from investing more than $20 million yearly in either country, due to their support in terrorism.
Several firms, including Britain's BG Group and Italy's Agip, have recently showed interest in pursuing such oil projects. — (MENA Report)
© 2001 Mena Report (www.menareport.com)
Top Headlines
- Libya calls for foreign companies to invest in its oil sector
- EU warns US of souring ties over Iran-Libya sanctions
- Italian foreign minister welcomes strong trade ties with Libya
- Libya restores energy ministry in the wake of renewed trade ties with the West
- US Senate extends sanctions against Iran, Libya for five years


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Academic integrity
Academic integrity, as with so much in life, involves a system of interconnected rights and responsibilities that reflect our mutual dependence upon one another. The success of individual efforts in school, as with so much in life, depends on each of us conscientiously exercising our rights and living up to our responsibilities. And the failure of any of us—even just one of us—to do what is required will diminish, however slightly, the opportunity for the rest to achieve their goals. That is why it's essential for each of us in this university to practice academic integrity. For practice today will lay a solid foundation for practice tomorrow, and the day after that, and the day after that, so that through daily practice integrity will come to be woven throughout the fabric of our lives, and thus through at least a part of the fabric of society.
Adapted from: Academic Integrity: A Letter to My Students" by Bill Taylor of Oakton Community College
Honor Code for The University of Northern Colorado
Honor the Pillars
All members of the University of Northern Colorado community are entrusted with the responsibility to uphold and promote five fundamental values: Honesty, Trust, Respect, Fairness, and Responsibility. These core elements foster an atmosphere inside and outside of the classroom, which serves as a foundation and guides the UNC community's academic, professional, and personal growth. Endorsement of these core elements by students, faculty, staff, administration, and trustees strengthens the integrity and value of our academic climate.


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Chapman athletes recognized on SCIAC All-Academic teams July 3, 2014 Chapman University student-athletes were well-represented during the 2013-14 academic year as the Southern California Intercollegiate Athletic... [read more]
Trio of softballers named to All-SCIAC team May 5, 2014 | SBall The Chapman University softball team had three players named to the All-SCIAC teams, including a pair of repeat honorees and one newcomer.... [read more]
Panthers eliminated with two losses at SCIAC softball tournament May 2, 2014 | SBall The Chapman University softball team was eliminated from the SCIAC Postseason Tournament on Friday with a pair of losses at the Field of Dreams at... [read more]
Softball hoping history does not repeat at SCIAC Tourney May 1, 2014 | SBall If the Chapman University softball team is experiencing a little déjà vu this week, there's good reason for that. The Panthers... [read more]
La Verne spoils 'Senior Day' for softball April 22, 2014 | SBall With nothing to lose and playing 'spoiler' on its minds, the University of La Verne softball team came into El Camino Real Park and... [read more]
Softball knocks off No. 15 Redlands...twice April 12, 2014 | SBall Chapman University softball team earned two huge upset wins over No. 15 University of Redlands, sweeping the Bulldogs with a pair of 2-1 decisions... [read more]
/pressreleases/13-14/SCIAC-ACADEMIC--old.jpg?max_width=624&max_height=450 /sports/sball/2013-14/photos/All-SCIAC.jpg?max_width=624&max_height=450 /sports/sball/2013-14/photos/PerezL2.jpg?max_width=624&max_height=450 /sports/sball/2013-14/photos/Oregel2.jpg?max_width=624&max_height=450 /sports/sball/2013-14/photos/Gibson1.jpg?max_width=624&max_height=450 /sports/sball/2013-14/photos/Both4.jpg?max_width=624&max_height=450


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Putting On the Ritz, L.A.-Style
Since the Ritz-Carlton Los Angeles opened last year right next to L.A. Live's Nokia Theater—home to the Primetime Emmy and MTV Video Music Awards—its spa has become a pre-event mainstay for nominees and performers. "Our celebrities get ready, walk over via a special tunnel, and pop out onto the red carpet," reveals spa director Melissa McMahon. "It's like magic." With the launch of a whole new crop of opulent, star-powered treatments, the destination stands to add a few more bold-faced names to its list of devotees, which already includes the likes of David Beckham, Nicole Richie, and Justin Bieber. "[They're] inspired by revitalization," McMahon says of the menu additions. "For this clientele, we needed to create the best treatments on the planet—something they've never seen before." Something like, say, the Champagne & Shimmer Experience, which begins with a raw sugar and acai scrub mixed with dashes of effervescent powder and actual bubbly, which is followed by a full-body massage with LaROCCA's exclusive 24K gold shea butter and murumuru shimmer body balm. Other over-the-top highlights include the Cashmere & Truffle treatment, which boasts the world's only service with pure organic cashmere extract, and the Fountain of Youth Facial, which uses Priori's naturally based cosmeceutical peels that have a better-than-Botox reputation. While the entrance to that secret passageway might be accessible by card-carrying A-listers only, there's nothing stopping you from getting pampered like one.
The Ritz-Carlton Los Angeles, 900 W. Olympic Blvd., L.A., (213) 743-8800.—Nora Zelevansky
Photo: Courtesy of the Ritz Carlton


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Meet the World's Smallest Cell Phone
Willcom's Phone Strap 2 is the world's smallest and lightest cell phone, measuring 32 x 70 x 10.7 millimeters and weighing in at a quarter pound. It has a small screen and e-mail but none of the extras that smartphones consist of these days. Patrick Jones has the story.
Filed under: Technology
Coming soon


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Auto News
AutoGuide News Blog
The AutoGuide News Blog is your source for breaking stories from the auto industry. Delivering news immediately, the AutoGuide Blog is constantly updated with the latest information, photos and video from manufacturers, auto shows, the aftermarket and professional racing.
The Ferrari Museum in Maranello opened a new exhibition today, focused on showcasing the best designs that emerged from a collaboration between the prancing horse brand, and Sergio Pininfarina.


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The Doctrine of the Trinity
- Wednesday, March 07, 2007
What we do mean by Person is something that regards himself as "I" and others as "You." So the Father, for example, is a different Person from the Son because He regards the Son as a "You," even though He regards Himself as "I." Thus, in regards to the Trinity, we can say that "Person" means a distinct subject which regards Himself as an "I" and the other two as a "You." These distinct subjects are not a division within the being of God, but "a form of personal existence other than a difference in being."[3]
How do they relate? The relationship between essence and Person, then, is as follows. Within God's one, undivided being is an "unfolding" into three personal distinctions. These personal distinctions are modes of existence within the divine being, but are not divisions of the divine being. They are personal forms of existence other than a difference in being. The late theologian Herman Bavinck has stated something very helpful at this point: "The persons are modes of existence within the being; accordingly, the Persons differ among themselves as the one mode of existence differs from the other, and-using a common illustration-as the open palm differs from a closed fist."[4]
Because each of these "forms of existence" are relational (and thus are Persons), they are each a distinct center of consciousness, with each center of consciousness regarding Himself as "I" and the others as "You." Nonetheless, these three Persons all "consist of" the same "stuff" (that is, the same "what," or essence). As theologian and apologist Norman Geisler has explained it, while essence is what you are, person is who you are. So God is one "what" but three "whos."
The divine essence is thus not something that exists "above" or "separate from" the three Persons, but the divine essence is the being of the three Persons. Neither should we think of the Persons as being defined by attributes added on to the being of God. Wayne Grudem explains:
But if each person is fully God and has all of God's being, then we also should not think that the personal distinctions are any kind of additional attributes added on to the being of God . . . Rather, each person of the Trinity has all of the attributes of God, and no one Person has any attributes that are not possessed by the others. On the other hand, we must say that the Persons are real, that they are not just different ways of looking at the one being of God...the only way it seems possible to do this is to say that the distinction between the persons is not a difference of `being' but a difference of `relationships.' This is something far removed from our human experience, where every different human `person' is a different being as well. Somehow God's being is so much greater than ours that within his one undivided being there can be an unfolding into interpersonal relationships, so that there can be three distinct persons.[5]
Trinitarian Illustrations?
There are many illustrations which have been offered to help us understand the Trinity. While there are some illustrations which are helpful, we should recognize that no illustration is perfect. Unfortunately, there are many illustrations which are not simply imperfect, but in error. One illustration to beware of is the one which says "I am one person, but I am a student, son, and brother. This explains how God can be both one and three." The problem with this is that it reflects a heresy called modalism. God is not one person who plays three different roles, as this illustration suggests. He is one Being in three Persons (centers of consciousness), not merely three roles. This analogy ignores the personal distinctions within God and mitigates them to mere roles.
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Knee Pain Health Center
Patellar Tracking Disorder - References
Other Works Consulted
American Academy of Family Physicians (2010). Patellofemoral pain syndrome. Available online: http://familydoctor.org/online/famdocen/home/healthy/physical/injuries/479.html.
American Academy of Podiatric Sports Medicine (2004). Patellofemoral Dysfunction. Available online: http://www.aapsm.org/patellofemoraldys.html.
Earl JE, Vetter CS (2007). Patellofemoral pain. Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Clinics of North America, 18(2007): 439–458.
Grudziak JS, Musahl V (2007). Patella instability and dislocation in adolescents section of The youth athlete. In PJ McMahon, ed., Current Diagnosis and Treatment in Sports Medicine, p. 230. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Hudgins T (2008). Patellofemoral syndrome. In WR Frontera et al., eds., Essentials of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation: Musculoskeletal Disorders, Pain, and Rehabilitation, 2nd ed., pp. 371–374. Philadelphia: Saunders Elsevier.
Kaplan L, et al. (2007). Patellar maltracking section of Knee injuries. In PJ McMahon, ed., Current Diagnosis and Treatment in Sports Medicine, pp. 92–95. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Rauh MA, Parker RD (2010). Patellar and quadriceps tendinopathies and ruptures. In JC DeLee et al., eds., DeLee and Drez's Orthopaedic Sports Medicine: Principles and Practice, 3rd ed., vol. 2, pp. 1513–1525. Philadelphia: Saunders Elsevier.
Van Linschoten R, et al. (2009). Supervised exercise therapy versus usual care for patellofemoral pain syndrome: An open label randomised controlled trial. BMJ. Published October 20, 2009 (doi:10.1136/bmj.b4074).
Warden SJ, et al. (2008). Patellar taping and bracing for the treatment of chronic knee pain: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Arthritis and Rheumatism, 59(1): 73–83.
WebMD Medical Reference from Healthwise


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Are you new in town or just looking for a new group of people to hang out with? Do you have an interest or hobby and would like to meet others with whom you can share them? Did you know that there is a wide variety of social groups in the Kansas City area that you can join? They are called "Meetup" groups, and they can be found online at http://www.meetup.com/find/.
Read more
Have you ever gone to Union Station and poked a finger in the bullet holes left after the infamous shoot out of 1933? They're still there! The eerie thrill of seeing them conjures legends and tall tales that I've heard since I was a little girl. Wouldn't you like to know what really happened?
Where were you when the Hyatt Skywalk fell? Do you remember your grandparents' stories about the Pendergast era? Have you ever put your fingers in the bullet holes in Union Station? Remember Harzfeld's? Even though I've lived in the Kansas City area my whole life, when I recently put together a display featuring books on area history, I was amazed!
When I was younger, it was a tradition in most families to go downtown and look at the decorations and the store windows. If you did not have a car, you rode the bus. This was a tradition that could be found in towns and cities across the United States.
I chose this book, Vintage Kansas City Stories, because it looked interesting, and I was right, it is! It's a collection of news stories, ads, and jokes from the Kansas City Journal 1907-1909. I read with interest one particular story about a statue of Venus brought from Florence, Italy in 1907 that was supposed to be donated to the Kansas City School Board but they rejected it.
When you ask a Kansas City native where they live, their response is the name attached to their neighborhood or housing subdivision. Waldo is the neighborhood bounded by State Line Road to the west, 85th Street to the south, Troost Avenue to the east, and Gregory Boulevard to the north. It was named for one of its original residents, David Waldo, who ran freight on the Santa Fe Trail.
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Department of psychology at the University of Tulsa
© 1988 by the American Psychiatric Association
Patients initially admitted to a state hospital under an emergency commitment procedure were studied to identify the variables associated with their later change to voluntary status, release, or judicial commitment, and to compare the hospitalization and outcome patterns of voluntary and committed patients. Compared with committed or voluntary patients, released patients were younger and better educated; were more likely to be employed at admission, to contribute to family income, and to have had previous outpatient treatment; and were less likely to have serious organic or psychotic disorders or to receive government assistance. Voluntary patients were hospitalized twice as long as committed patients and were less frequently considered to have received maximum benefits from hospitalization. In view of the association between voluntary status and longer hospitalization, periodic review may be needed to safeguard these patients from unnecessary confinement.
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As part of his consultation service, Dr. Klaper is pleased, when requested, to communicate with your primary care physician or treatment specialist.
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Contact Dr. Michael Klaper to schedule a private consultation.
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