text:
Why Did Rome Fall—And Why Does It Matter Now?
Count the ways
A German scholar twenty years ago listed, I recall, some 210 reasons for the collapse of the Western Empire. Readers, you have heard many of them, plausible and otherwise — corruption, civil strife, Germanic barbarians, Christianity, lead in the pipes of the elite, etc.
Any such discussion is also predicated on two other twists: the Eastern Empire at Constantinople went on for nearly another 1,000 years until the 1453 sack by the Ottomans. And for the last twenty years, revisionists have disputed Gibbon's notion of a dramatic "fall" in the West, and argued instead that it was a "transition" as the "barbarian" "other" was insidiously assimilated into what would emerge in the latter Dark Ages as "Europeans."
The East certainly had more defensible borders with the Danube and the Hellespont. Constantinople was far better fortified naturally and artificially than was Rome; the defense of Byzantium could rely to a greater degree on naval forces. And greater wealth was to be had in Asia and Egypt than in the northwestern provinces.
How could Christianity have caused the Western 'fall' when a very Christian East survived? (So I postpone here discussion of that crux of why the East enjoyed another 1000 years (e.g., larger population, greater wealth, less civil strife, more defensible borders, fewer Germanic enemies, etc.), given it shared many of the same pathologies of culture as the West.)
Them and us
My concern, however, is instead with the indisputable decline in material culture in Britain, Iberia, Gaul, Italy and North Africa from the 4th-5th century AD onward, with the end of strong government that had resulted in everything from secure borders to internal calm (the sort of world that St. Augustine in Tunisia saw ending at his death).
Rather than rehash Gibbon, or review the spate of recent books on Rome's decline and our own supposed end, I throw out a few general notions.
The Romans themselves by the first century AD (cf. Horace to Livy to Petronius to Juvenal) felt that the enormous influx of unearned wealth from conquered provinces had undermined the old republican virtues of small farmers and merchants (e.g., the old yeoman with four kids and a wife on five acres of grain now either devolved into the urban unemployed spectator in the Coliseum at Rome on the dole or evolved into the sterile estate owner with 50 slaves and 200 acres of wine grapes and an expensive pasture with a herd of beef cows.)
So the rise of latifundia, and the influx of unheard of wealth and slaves, gradually, in the ancients' own view, created a dependent class on the dole and corruption among the elite. "Decline" as seen in the ancient mind was not inevitable, and was almost seen as a moral question — material progress resulting in ethical regress.
A Pretty Slow Fall
Yet Rome did not fall for four centuries after its moralists wrote of its decadence and decline. Why the resilience?
Entitlements and official corruption were for centuries subsidized by the profits accruing from global standardization and Romanization — brought about by the implementation and imposition of Roman law, order, and commerce throughout the Mediterranean. As long as the empire was cohesive, it brought in thousands yearly into its sphere of influence.
Those from the Black Sea to the Nile and from Portugal to Iraq were now subject to habeas corpus, a standard official language, regularization in weights and measures, and security on roads and the seas. The centuries-long result of such Romanization is easily discerned in the later historians from Ammianus to Zosimus, who remarked on both widening prosperity and a persistent moral crisis, rather than the dangers of material impoverishment.
We Are All Romans Now
So such global uniformity created real wealth in newfound places faster than such bounty could corrupt the citizens in the old Italian core to the degree to bring down what was now a world system. In other words, the creation of entirely new cities like Leptis or the growth of Asian centers such as Ephesus, brought previously unproductive tribal folk into the Roman system at precisely the time old Romans were no longer doing the things that had once created their own vibrant culture that swept the Mediterranean — the ancient version of the Chinese youth working 10 hours in an Adidas factory while an American counterpart is still "finding himself."
194 Comments, 190 Threads
1. mikemcdaniel
I am old enough so that I will likely be able to live the remainder of my life without dealing with a substantially deteriorated standard of living, but I fear that I will be the last generation so fortunate. In my daily reading, and less frequent viewing, I constantly come across those who profess amazement in essentially these terms: "But Barack Obama is soooo smart! He's so eloquent, such a brilliant speaker! All of his advisors come from the best schools! They're all the right people! Why aren't things going right? Why are they doing things that are…so stupid?" Why indeed. Lead in the pipes and drinking vessels is almost certainly not the answer this time. Drinking the Kool-Aid? Perhaps.
Social Security and the Medis are going bankrupt sooner rather than later. Of this there is no doubt. Bankrupt on a scale that will destroy the American economy. The Obama solution? Turn trillion into the new million and spend sums into the distant future that even his economic advisors admit is unsustainable (more on that in a moment).
Jobs are being lost in huge numbers and the situation is so dire that we don't hear much about "jobs saved or created" much anymore. The first "stimulus" is an obvious and dismal failure, with even Obama's advisors admitting that there never were any of the vaunted "shovel ready jobs" that would keep unemployment below 8%. The Obama solution? Another stimulus and untold billions spent on such liberal boondoggles as high speed rail, a concept that would surely rate below "receiving paper cuts on every inch of the body" on any desirability index for most Americans.
Energy prices are sure to rise, if for no other reason than Obama's repeated desire to make them rise to satisfy the new communists–the environmentalist/global warming commissars. We import too much oil from countries that overcharge us and wish us ill. The Obama solution? Talk about drilling and nuclear plants and solar and wind, but defund the Nevada depository for nuclear waste storage, and do nothing to speed up drilling while also doing nothing to impede the environmentalists who file hundreds of suits to impede the construction of oil, coal, wind and solar projects as soon as the mere idea for them is hatched.
Well armed and financed terrorists want to murder Americans and have already had at least three partial successes on American soil in the last year. The Obama solution? Treat terrorists like shoplifters, pay for their attorneys and establish show trials that will cost billions and paint targets on the backs of the citizens of the trial locations. Investigate and persecute our own CIA operatives, fill the DOJ with attorneys who formerly defended jihadists, dismantle effective anti-terror programs and above all, blame George Bush for everything and anything.
I could go on forever, but we are now at a point in our history where a substantial portion of the population has no doubt that whenever our President's lips are moving, he is lying. Unlike with the alleged lies of George W. Bush, there is actual, daily evidence of such lying on the part of Obama, yet apparently intelligent people cannot bring themselves to accept it. Yes Obama's advisors admit that his spending is "unsustainable," but as Montoya said in "The Princess Bride," "I don' think that word means what you think it means." Hard working, everyday Americans understand the word to mean "cannot be sustained," as in when you spend more money than you have, can borrow and can pay back, at a finite, very predictable, I can point to the day on the calendar date, you will be in deep financial trouble, trouble from which no one can or will bail you out. And being rational people, most Americans never allow themselves to fall into that particular pit. But to Obama and those who follow him, the word means whatever they want it to mean at any given moment–reality is not an immutable constant that must be heeded, but an ephemeral construction that can and must be bent to serve the agenda–and at this moment, it means spending numbers with so many zeros after them for so many decades that the numbers cease to have any practical meaning. That we do not have this money and that such profligate spending can and will actually bankrupt the nation bothers Obama and those who hope only to be buried wearing his image on a t-shirt (to what greater accomplishment can a human being aspire?) not at all. In fact, they blithely proclaim that it is, in fact our salvation, and we are too unsophisticated to understand it. Obama is culpable only in that we are too dense to fathom his many kindly, principled, Dear leader-like attempts to inform us what we are to cloddish to understand is good for us.
Parallels between us and Rome? Indeed. We have become, to some degree, a nation more interested in bread and circuses, in governmental largess than in striving for anything. We don't work to obtain an education, education is a product we pay to receive, a diploma being the sales receipt. We are entitled, and as the entitled, we have no obligation to defend our way of life, indeed, even to lift our fingers to vote to maintain it. In a sense, we are taking a vacation from history. The next three years will determine whether that vacation will continue to the grave or whether we will refuse the ride in the hearse and once again demand that those who would rule us understand the wonder that is America and be truly proud to be an American. The example of the last year is not encouraging. We are the world's last, best hope, which has nothing whatever to do with "hope and change." Perhaps those who attended the right schools, who are soooo smart, really are, after all, in their determination to studiously ignore and rewrite history, and to shape reality to their ends, stupid. For failing to accept this, are we any smarter?February 12, 2010 - 12:23 am Link to this Comment | Reply
2. Seawolf15
Never quit the fight Victor. Never!!
Right now I am at the lowest ebb of my life. LOL! I am 61, out on the street without a scintilla of cash after 28 years of marraige and no prospects!
I have 2 dauthers that have done and will continue to do well, I have a woman who likes ME. I have….wealth beyond measure.
My friends, never quit!February 12, 2010 - 5:06 am Link to this Comment | Reply
3. Akatsukami
Yes, well. Bismarck is alleged to have said that God watched over fools, drunkards, and the United States. We have taken this too much to heart, not recognizing that whilst there is an endless supply of new fools and drunkards to watch over, there is only one United Statesm and His patience with it might be wearing a bit thin.
The United States in not America; America is not the United States. The Obamist cabal hates and despises America, but retains some fondness for the United States…just as that Roman estate owner did for his beef cattle, and for the same reason.February 12, 2010 - 5:23 am Link to this Comment | Reply
4. vandenberge
With regard the scenario's. Asia's encounter with Postmodernism will take another 40 years according to economic forecasters and than even if it takes place. They still have a large majority in poverty. So no scenario 3.
What I think will happen do is that a lot of high earners and potential high earners born after 1964 will emigrate from the US and Europe to Brazil, China and India etc. to work for Multinationals or perhaps start a firm because they don't want to pick up the tab of the baby boomer generation in the West. The baby boomers will be the large part of the electorate for the next decades. They will not cut in their own flesh. So I will put my money on Scenario 2.February 12, 2010 - 5:40 am Link to this Comment | Reply
5. Jeff
heh … no comments longer than the article :)February 12, 2010 - 6:09 am Link to this Comment | Reply
6. David Thomson
"material progress resulting in ethical regress."
I continuously argue that the United States is in deep trouble because of our widespread affluence of the last some twenty years. Purple and red state adults were earning so much money that they were indifferent concerning the fiscal irresponsibility of the Democrats and the so-called moderate Republicans. The very subject bored them to death. They essentially yawned and kicked the ball down the field to deal with in the future. Human beings seemingly prefer not to nip a problem in the bud. It is very difficult to speak to people about the inevitable dire consequences of wasteful spending when they have just picked up their new car at the dealership and are planning a two-week vacation in Hawaii.February 12, 2010 - 7:01 am Link to this Comment | Reply
7. Ron Kean
Amazing. Simply amazing. Thank you Professor.February 12, 2010 - 7:59 am Link to this Comment | Reply
8. Cornhead
If this winter's snow and cold don't kill the global warming scam, then nothing will.
I view this snow as proof the face of God shines on the United States.February 12, 2010 - 8:29 am Link to this Comment | Reply
9. Steven
Rome was a slave society, the comparison fails.February 12, 2010 - 9:08 am Link to this Comment | Reply
10. Aaron
I think part of this problem of decline is that those who made America great slowly gave in to the new philosophies we have today. Nothing is true, everything is a matter of opinion; wealth comes from the right opportunities and not work ethic; hard work is little more than greed, and if you're good at something you better be prepared to give some of that success to those less fortunate or able. You don't deserve the fruit of your labor, others do. It's insanity.
Through the strong, the weak were allowed to prosper and now dictate to the strong what is right.
My friend and I were wondering the other day, why it is that people who are heavily entrenched in videogames (live and breathe 'em) or work in the videogame/computer industries tend to be liberal; the vast majority, in fact. I personally think it is because those kinds of lifestyles lend towards isolation and impersonal communication. Less socializing with blue-collar types, a disconnect with the poor, and opinions formed in isolation from first-hand experience (and funny that I conjecture about psychology of the masses). I think the reverse is true for those of us in the military who are vastly conservative. I don't know how exactly these lifestyles dictate worldview to such a high degree; but I've seen it happen nonetheless. Maybe someone smarter than I has already figured this out; I know I'm not the first to notice it.
Much enjoying the latest posts, Dr. Hanson.February 12, 2010 - 9:10 am Link to this Comment | Reply
During the collapse in fall 2008 I was out to dinner with a gentleman from India. He gloated that America was over. I laughed, not a doubt in my mind that he was wrong. Then Bush and Obama did their thing and I feared my Indian friend was right. But now I have some hope again. It all depends on what we the people do now.February 12, 2010 - 9:17 am Link to this Comment | Reply
12. Supreme Allied Commander
Where does it all end? I have no idea, but offer only competing scenarios: 1) as our debt becomes unsustainable, we react and increase the retirement age, cut spending and entitlements radically, and renew our work ethic (impossible by choice, made possible by necessity), and enjoy a renaissance;
……..isn't it unsustainable right now given that it will be another year before the congress changes hands.
2) we become a UK-like museum, with witty cynical observers, as the new giants in Asia produce the next Microsoft, Exxon, and Ford, and we fade;
………already there too aren't we ?
3) India and China discover that they too have a rendezvous with suburban blues, environmentalism, consumer regulation, and a pampered citizenry, and there is some sort of shared global postmodernism.
yes and no. their economies are expanding.
another thing about Roman collapse, the dark ages was also the "mini ice-age" the barbarians needed to eat and Rome had food (food doesn't grow under ice and snow) so there was an incentive to go south for the "barbarians".
as for the Romans living with entitlements ..I don't know if they had food stamps or government welfare.
sin embargo ..a great essay. is a civilization doomed to collapse ? is it that eventually we consume what sustained us and we disappear ? like Easter Island ..quickly or Rome ..slowly.
more questions then answers. but the way Obama is going it will be class warfare followed by Mad Max sequel.February 12, 2010 - 9:19 am Link to this Comment | Reply
13. Paul -Indiana
♪ mmm mmm mmm ♪February 12, 2010 - 9:23 am Link to this Comment | Reply
14. Fred Osborn
AMEN !February 12, 2010 - 9:26 am Link to this Comment | Reply
15. cfbleachers
VDH, it seems to me that American exceptionalism is what is being redefined.
We used to take pride in what we did, what we made, what we accomplished. We were proud of our "exceptional feats".
Today, we (through our pop culture vehicles and our diseased worldwide entrenched media) apologize, bow and scrape before those from whom we curry acceptance. And, subliminally accepting our inferiority, we transform pride into faux arrogance.
Through that medium we give ourselves tin trinkets as awards and prizes for our ability to grovel and genuflect. We are now left to be proud of these "exceptional fete's"
And, in this way we take pride in how much we can disassociate with America, how "nuanced" we are in our own self-loathing, how much we believe in our own elitist hype. We are the change "they" have been waiting for…I'm afraid.
We propped up companies too large to fail and shut down our quest for infinite space, too small to contain our arrogance.
We have passed that baton of exceptionalism to China and Russia. It's a good thing that Mao and Stalin are so revered in some circles around here these days, perhaps Anita Dunn and Oliver Stone can help us push the reset button on our own aspirations. We can learn abject humiliation at a doctoral level.February 12, 2010 - 9:30 am Link to this Comment | Reply
16. paul_unalaska
The fall of the U.S. – it begins and ends with the 'Leaders' we have.
I'd read this morning of Harry Reid throwing a tantrum at the American Bar Association (ABA) for its mixed review of Reid's prospect, Gloria Navarro as a nominee for Nevada's Federal Judge post. Though Navarro is not a Judge presently
1 of Reid's comments to Navarro's 'qualifications' is Mrs. Navarro's '..experience in the real world of Government..'. If that's not an oxymoron I don't know what is.
So instead of following the rule of Law, let's fly by the seat of our pants and choose candidates who 'feel good' at the moment. Which is what's happened the past 40 + years and the crescendo occurred November 2008.
Reid supported the ABA in 2 past occasions for nominees of his liking. Though upon this recent applicant's mixed review, he said of the ABA, 'Get a new life'. Such 'eloquent' words from the Senate Majority Leader.
This nominee has but a criminal law background! What would occur when, not if, 'Federal Judge' Navarro receives a case outside her realm, will her 'life experience' assist in her decision making?
'Get somebody on the bench who has not been a Judge..'. A comment made by Reid to Obama! What a blatant disregard for the 3 Branches of Government, and made by none other than the 'Leader' of 1 of the other 2 Branches.
Lastly, Reid's, 'Real World Experience' jib.. REID'S BEEN A POLITICAN FOR 44 YEARS! What does this man know or pretend to know of the 'real world experience'???
This and hundreds of other technocrats, aristocratic-like politicians across the board is the very reason why our country is knowingly, willingly entering into a quagmire. 'Leaders' such as Reid..February 12, 2010 - 9:42 am Link to this Comment | Reply
17. alex
Classical Rome enjoyed success because its war campaigns sent back to Rome a dollar for every 20 cents it cost to sustain its expansion and war effort. As Rome expanded its borders, it cost more to sustain itself than what it was receiving from the effort. Towards its end classic Rome was selling off its senate seats and political office to sustain the system. it was floundering and the seat of corruption and waste on massive scale.
Eastern Roman empire did not suffer the fate of its western counterpart for many reasons; Constantine move the Capital or Roman empire to Constantinople, and Rome lost political and economic might.
Trade with China, India, and other Regions was much more established with Eastern Empire and more sustainable. Eastern Empire had stronger social ties binding the empire and its political structure. Eastern Empire managed its economy in the classical sense; don't spend more than you are taking in.
The similarity between classical Roman and British, Spanish, Portuguese, African and American "empires" exist for a reason; no economy can spend more than it takes in for any sustained length of time. It is simply a matter of natural market forces acting on the economy.
Setting aside all other considerations(families destroyed); if we spend 2 trillion invading Iraq, and we benefit 400 Billion in Petroleum revenues, it is a massively incompetent fiscal failure for the Nation. If we spend another 2 trillion in Afghanistan and receive no compensation from Pipelines being built from the Caspian Sea refineries thru Afghanistan to ocean ports, it is another massive fiscal failure.
Who benefited from our invasion of Iraq…certainly the USA did not, Iran, China and Russia are the NET winners of regime change in Iraq.
Who will benefit from our involvement in Afghanistan? so far it appears that Russia and China will be NET winners, as pipelines are being built favoring Chinese and Russian petroleum interests.
These same scenarios apply to just about every foreign policy decision the USA has made in the last 50 years; overthrowing Iranian govt in 1953 benefited British Petroleum interests far more than US, and is now the root cause of Iranian issues in the news.
There is a very long list of the US helping to overthrow govts and expand its influence, but in almost no cases does the action actually result in Net gain to the USA, it is gain for international Banking and corporate interests and causes Net Losses to USA economy.
We are hollowing out our economy for the benefit and interest of other groups. It is what happened to classical Rome, it is happening to the USA today.
The US dollar has lost almost all of its value and is now the leading EXPORT of the US economy. We are frantically subsidizing the US dollar in overseas markets to avoid its collapse, which is inevitable. We are paying countries to use the US dollar in its trade system, the last pitiful act of a dying economic model.
Long live the Ideals of the USA, but its citizens and people deserve the Government they have, because they demanded nothing better.February 12, 2010 - 9:43 am Link to this Comment | Reply
18. Sowell Disciple
(#9 Steven: "Rome was a slave society, the comparison fails."
Steven, you might reread Dr. Hanson's article with an open mind instead of just trying to find something to use as ammunition in a drive-by posting. There were many differences between Rome and our country, but the lessons are still there to be learned. Illegal immigrants are our equivalent to the slaves, and we have grown weak with our dependence on them (particularly here in California).
Also, you might take up remedial English, sticking with it at least past the point of learning about the semicolon. (Another example of our decline.)February 12, 2010 - 9:53 am Link to this Comment | Reply
19. Tex Taylor
Excellent post mikemcdaniel.
I don't know whether it is but a symptom or reason for the continuing deterioration. Deny it if you wish, as most do.
Even most of my closest fiscally Conservative friends can not bring themselves to admit this, always clothed in the capitalist argument because of supply and demand, but I can't think of a better example of skewed priorities than our love and deification of sport. I await the day we have gladiators for our halftime entertainment.
How many more billion dollar stadiums do we require, complete with retractable roofs? While you drive to the stadium, take a good look at the deterioration of the roads leading to it. Do millions of families really have $700.00 to spend for a family of four to attend one NFL game? You mean to tell mean not one of those families defaulted on their mortgage? Maybe charged it to the VISA with minimum payments paid each month? Priced a college basketball game lately at any major university? And all the while parents seemingly yawn at universities raising tuition at three times the rate of inflation while board scores continue to drop.
In my own home town, we've got a state of the arena only a couple of years old, but just laid of policemen with the threat of firemen soon to follow. And the arena is celebrated for the tax revenue it brings, never recognizing its nothing but a reallocation of resources.
Bread and circuses indeed!February 12, 2010 - 9:56 am Link to this Comment | Reply
20. baal
You know, the fierce urgency of kicking Obama and scum out in 2010 and 2012 is really there for me, but so is the fear that the Republicans have not learned their lesson. We have to remember and be honest that it was the profligate spending and corruption in the Republican congress under Bush, and the Bush admin's nauseating acceptance of stalemate against radical islam that bought us Barack Obama.
Yes, I get there was more to it than that but these truths are still indisputable.
Why, when I suggest that the Republican Party adopt a platform, a binding policy of Zero deficit spending does this get ignored? Is it because we have lowered our expectations, our requirements for our government so low that we are really facilitating the mindset that allows for the parasitism of Barack and company?February 12, 2010 - 10:10 am Link to this Comment | Reply
21. SonjaP
We are not Rome; we were never supposed to be Rome. I'm sick of Rome.February 12, 2010 - 10:14 am Link to this Comment | Reply
22. Toady
40% if the people in this country pay no federal income tax, mostly because of deductions. Aside from the question of representation without taxation, how long will it be where we have more people receiving goodies from the system than paying into it?February 12, 2010 - 10:15 am Link to this Comment | Reply
23. PaulM
It's good to look back, but not for the purpose of lamenting what is happening in this country of ours. The citizens of the United States of America still have vigor, in spite of the efforts of the present administration in Washington and in many States, to make the people more and more dependent on government, thinking that thereby those in office will insure their own electability. This notion is false because it will only create an appetite for more, an appetite which cannot ever be fully satisfied. Government should create self reliance by making it possible for its citizens to be self reliant rather than dependent slaves.February 12, 2010 - 10:25 am Link to this Comment | Reply
24. Kurt
David Thompson: I suspect one of the reasons for not having more impatience with some of the government excesses of the last twenty years has been the pragmatic knowledge that opposing too loudly was going to lead to something worse. After all, that's certainly what happened in 2006. Those who were tired of the Republicans' excessive spending under Bush either stayed home or voted against Republicans, and all of a sudden we ended up with Democrats controlling the House and Senate.
Although there are many brilliant things about the way the American government was structured, one problem has been that it has worked in a way that tends to ensure that there are only two dominant political parties at any one time. Yet having only two parties means that there are fewer choices and therefore more corruption and less accountability, since the alternative to what you have mixed feelings about is usually what you don't want.February 12, 2010 - 10:26 am Link to this Comment | Reply
25. Jeff Perren
"We could instill a tragic rather than therapeutic world view that would mean more responsibilities rather than endlessly more rights."
In an otherwise valuable article this statement is a dreadful false alternative. Dr. Hanson would benefit from reading a bit of Rand (or even Walter Williams or Larry Elder), who show that a 'tragic' view is certainly not the only – or best – alternative to a 'therapeutic' one. There are more – and better – alternatives than Oprah or Eeyore.February 12, 2010 - 10:28 am Link to this Comment | Reply
26. David Thomson
People worry about themselves, first, last, and foremost. They are usually indifferent if a problem seems not to directly cause them harm. It really is that simple. This is especially the case if their worldview is very secular. Only those citizens who embrace fairly traditional Judeo-Christian religious values can ultimately save their respective societies. I may reject Christopher Dawson's Catholicism—but not his essential thesis. It is right on target.February 12, 2010 - 10:29 am Link to this Comment | Reply
27. Old Soldier
TAXES! Don't forget the taxes.
The Roman Empire taxed their middle class out of existence. The poor, of course, and slaves weren't taxed (what is 75% of 0?). Wealthy aristocrats were exempt from taxes (how much estate tax do the Kennedy's pay to pass on their offshore accounts?).
The yeoman farmers, merchants, and craftsman who built Rome were the target. Taxes reached the point that freemen were selling themselves into slavery to avoid them – trading their physical freedom for economic freedom.
His cash flow threatened, the Emperor reacted by forbidding freemen from selling themselves into slavery and not allowing them to leave their farms – creating the medieval serf.February 12, 2010 - 10:34 am Link to this Comment | Reply
28. Mike T
My friend and I were wondering the other day, why it is that people who are heavily entrenched in videogames (live and breathe 'em) or work in the videogame/computer industries tend to be liberal; the vast majority, in fact.
I'm a software engineer, and for every liberal I've met, I've met at least as many conservatives and libertarians in this profession. In fact, the more that the computer work resembles engineering, the more I find a conservative mentality dominates.February 12, 2010 - 10:42 am Link to this Comment | Reply
29. coisty
The old Roman families didn't have as many children (for many of the reasons VDH presents) yet newcomers kept arriving. The Roman stock became diluted and eventually overwhelmed by people who were once alien subjects but now citizens. with different values. These (former) aliens no longer assimilated and, as one classical scholar put it, "when they were raised to equal rights with the ruling people they asserted themselves, and burst the frame in which they had been enclosed."
As recently as the 1950s the vast majority of Americans had roots to the Thirteen Colonies. These old stock Americans long ago lost control over many of their major cities, then they lost control over their own history as the American story went from being one of a particular people and their incredible accomplishments to one of bigotry, oppression, and guilt. Now old stock Americans are the only people in the country without their own ethnic lobby, the only people without a tribe in an age of identity politics. They are fading like the Romans. Were they just too naive and too idealistic in extending their values to others who did not reciprocate? Or did unimagined wealth produce sloth, decadence, and decline? Perhaps there was just lead in the pipes of the elite.February 12, 2010 - 10:43 am Link to this Comment | Reply
f. carter
Can you really compare the two, English landed on top of native Americans an later on other Europeans landed on top of the English, and the beat goes on.
Rather naive wouldn't you say to think the 13 colonies were the forefathers of this country….August 27, 2012 - 2:32 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
30. David Thomson
"David Thompson: I suspect one of the reasons for not having more impatience with some of the government excesses of the last twenty years has been the pragmatic knowledge that opposing too loudly was going to lead to something worse."
I completely disagree. Most knowledgeable Americans simply didn't give a damn. They were too affluent and the threats perceived as too distant from their everyday personal concerns. I am utterly convinced that these folks only had to spend roughly four hours a week keeping up on the issues—and a mere .05% of their income on everything from book purchases to campaign contributions. Instead, they blew it off.February 12, 2010 - 10:45 am Link to this Comment | Reply
31. baal
"Our real problem is not the spike in spending last year, or the lost, even the lost revenues last year, as significant as those are," he said. "The real problem has to do with the fact that there is a just a mismatch between the amount of money coming in and the amount of money going out. And that is going to require some big, tough choices that, so far, the political system has been unable to deal with."
Barack Obama said this. Again, "there is a just a mismatch between the amount of money coming in and the amount of money going out."
My rule number #1:Anyone who says that the government CANNOT live within its means does not want the government to live within its means.
We can simply cut the budget. Yes, we can.February 12, 2010 - 10:52 am Link to this Comment | Reply
32. Dwight
I appreciated this article because it went beyond the Obama bashing of so many of the recent ones, BUT none of us seem to have any credible solutions. Will the fact that jobs are now muc more difficult to get and that many retirement plans have been wiped out or drastically reduced CHANGE our overall expectations about having material "nice" things?
Beats me. But alas, the righty view that we should not feel guilty about having and wanting nice things and the lefty view that if some have nice things, then all should, work together as a perfect storm to create our current situation.
VDH, you say that we could easily balance our budget; I am skeptical. Let's say that we forgot the stimulus package and instead cut our budget 10% from the last one. Let's also assume that a lot of public sector types including 5% of the military would lose their job, and gulp, their earning power. Let's assume that that loss, would be close to 20% of all such employees if you include all those who kept of got their jobs from the stimulus AND those who would lose them from a further real cut. All those folks now have no work, but the taxes for those of us with jobs would be lower. So new businesses are now supposed to crop up to meet the demands of a significantly REDUCED overall demand?
Taxes, regressive as they may be, are one semi-effective response to that materialistic addiction mentioned in your article. We may be at the point where all those people will KEEP their supposedly cushy public sector jobs, but pay increasingly higher taxes on their supposedly ill-gotten wages. The other model is to throw all these people out of work, make them take much lower paying (and at the moment non-existent) jobs working for the new start-ups (who are meeting what demand, exactly? Without tariffs, we are going to continue to manufacture less and less here, so not much on the job front there.
I say that higher taxes and pension reform is a better solution for those "government" people. A balanced program with a decent chance of turning things around would not just, if at all, shrink/starve government, but would acknowledge our new situation with more kick-back against public sector unions and use statistics based responses and solutions. Right now the discussion is all political bs and principles, blah blah. Maybe continued tough economic times will make us look at the numbers, not just which interest group we want to support or gore.
Oops, that's not very likely either. We're screwed!!!February 12, 2010 - 11:11 am Link to this Comment | Reply
33. crk
Exellent VDH overview and some fine Opinion pieces –#1 for example.
Let's extend Obama's "spread the wealth" mentality beyond finances, materials, and entitlements. We now find our poorly informed easily duped citizens spreading the political opportunities and high offices to the unqualified, inexperienced, anti-capitalists, and anti-Americans. While I agree with Dr. Hanson's summation of possible outcomes there is such a thing as over interpretation. Pay attention to the obvious and call it by it's name ! Obama is not just a bumbling fool. He is well on his way toward achieving his goal -the DESTRUCTION of America. As someone once said "If you teach an Airdale to play the violin you don't need a string quartet to prove it". The better question is how to stop this self serving, hateful "emperor" who has another 3 years to further his mission. Enough with the analysis. Solutions from Dr. Hanson and readers should become the focus.February 12, 2010 - 11:19 am Link to this Comment | Reply
34. myth buster
32. Except that analysis contradicts reality. First of all, manufacturing output in this country has never been higher than it was in this past decade. True, manufacturing jobs are diminishing, but this is because of a hostile tax and regulatory structure driving them out of business, and yet those surviving businesses still manage to eek out more than enough productivity to compensate for a smaller workforce.
What demand would these new businesses or expansions of existing ones fill? Demands we don't even know about yet. Every innovation creates demand ex nilho, and in doing so, increases the standard of living. People will create jobs to produce money and labor saving devices, which are in especially high demand during a weak economy.February 12, 2010 - 11:36 am Link to this Comment | Reply
35. Sherab Zangpo
Interesting, but Rome lasted 1000 years anyway.
The modern plague, domestic subversion, that actually works to aid the enemies attacking from outside, was unknown to Rome.
Rome could even afford a long series of demented Emperors.
Our Republic cannot afford a subversive administration, that works relentlessly to destroy America's might.February 12, 2010 - 11:39 am Link to this Comment | Reply
36. nofreelunch
At what point shall we expect the approach of danger? By what means shall we fortify against it? Shall we expect some transatlantic military giant, to step the Ocean, and crush us at a blow? Never! All the armies of Europe, Asia and Africa combined, with all the treasure of the earth (our own excepted) in their military chest; with a Buonaparte for a commander, could not by force, take a drink from the Ohio, or make a track on the Blue Ridge, in a trial of a thousand years. At what point, then, is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide. Abraham Lincoln January 27, 1838
Save our country, get involved!!!!!!!! That's the answer to the problem. Quit pontificating and join a "tea party" Help us. The results are obvious to everybody.February 12, 2010 - 11:48 am Link to this Comment | Reply
3. Akatsukami: "The Obamist cabal hates and despises America, but retains some fondness for the United States… "
I'll go you one better. Not only does the current govt despise America and all that it stands for (outright rejection of Natural Law), but the progressive movement (which IS the cancer burying this country in unpayable debt) infests both parties in Washington and actively schemes to enslave Americans under its tyranny.
This is loudly championed by the useful idiots of the left and manages to keep both the progressive right and left focused only on pointing out each others faults while effectively silencing the outside critics that rightly point out the obvious failure of progressivism under the false cloak of racism, or accusations that we just wanna kill ppl (as though their hailing the holy grail of abortion isnt actually doing that) and all the other nonsense.
All these falures cloaked in their lies is taking us straight to tyranny and once you take a step back, you can absolutely see the lie, upon lie, upon lie that is going to to be felt by ALLLLL of us when whats happening in Europe right now comes to America. Ahhh, Neil Diamond – Coming to America!!
Paraphrasing beck – The question remains, when two people stand up and say follow me, I have the solution. Who are we going to follow? The one that promises us protection from everything (excluding them of course) and I'll get those responsible, or the one the tells us hey why dont we just dust off the Constitution and give that a shot again. Lets lose the progressivism and get back being Aamericans.
– You better know what you believe and educate yourself.
My thanks and kudos to people like VDH and Glenn Beck that are out there making the point. These are the people that have inspired me to lose the drugs, lose the debt, get back to family and friends, and READ. I hope my CRATE from Amazon arrives today…February 12, 2010 - 11:53 am Link to this Comment | Reply
38. Raymond in DC
Cornhead writes, "If this winter's snow and cold don't kill the global warming scam, then nothing will."
I'm afraid it hasn't yet – and I write this looking out at the remnants of our *third* major snowstorm of the season. Dianne Sawyer on ABC News repeated the mantra of "warmest decade ever" and insisted these storms were "predicted" – then she pointed to the IPCC prediction of "increased storms", which has already been retracted. And they weren't pointing at *snow* storms either.
It's easier to stick with one's prejudices than do one's homework or compare theory against results. That applies not just to global warming but the whole panoply of liberal "truths" that are emasculating this country.February 12, 2010 - 11:58 am Link to this Comment | Reply
39. JFTDMaster
I'll make it short and sweet. Wealth is not necessarily corrupting, as the growth of the US until the 1960′s show. It is UNEARNED wealth that corrupts – whether we are talking about the third world dictators, lottery winners or welfare recipients.February 12, 2010 - 12:04 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
40. Michael
"Rome was a slave society, the comparison fails."
No, it is more apt than you know. Slaves were the machinery that allowed the higher life styles that Rome enjoyed. Cheap labor. Many slaves bought their freedom and many others were freed. They became the successful small business owners. However they did not have the allegiance to "being Roman".
Today we have illegal aliens. They work for slave wages so that Americans, particularly business can have cheaper items, cheaper labor, and higher life style. Many will become the small business owners. They do not and will not be Americans first though. They don't come here to be Americans.
Rome is a valid comparison.February 12, 2010 - 12:06 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
41. Mike T
As recently as the 1950s the vast majority of Americans had roots to the Thirteen Colonies.
I find that very, very difficult to believe, considering how many millions of Europeans came to this country from the 1860s to the 1940s. The culture was first strangled by the continental immigrants from Europe who displaced the distinctly English political culture of the old colonies long before the more global immigration post-1950s.February 12, 2010 - 12:07 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
42. bastiches
All those folks now have no work, but the taxes for those of us with jobs would be lower. So new businesses are now supposed to crop up to meet the demands of a significantly REDUCED overall demand?
First, most cuts could be made over the course of a few years. Second, we can't assume a 10% cut in spending will result in 20% cut in public sector employment. You need to show your math there. The Stimulus added very few jobs, and I'd argue, even fewer of them can be called permanent as the Stimulus is temporary. Keynes would be shocked at the misinterpretation of his ideas.
So, for the sake of argument let's stick with 10% cut in spending reduces public sector employment by 10%.
Third, yes! A permanent reduction in taxes will spur both more consumption, 70% of the demand in our economy, and in private sector employment. Not only will businesses benefit from lower taxes and less regulation but by greater capital available. When gov. spending is as high as it is now, it squeezes the amount of capital available in a phenomena known as crowding out.
Put simply, private enterprise is more efficient at allocating resources, capital and labor than government. The government should only do what a central government must; protect the country and enforce contracts and the law.
Furthermore, the public sector generates zero tax revenue. Only the private sector can generate tax revenue, and when it is allowed to flourish it generates more revenue than an economy under the heel of high taxation and an empire of regulation.
Last, income taxes are not regressive. They are progressive; the more you earn the higher the tax. Those at the bottom pay nothing in taxes, those at the top 1% of earners pay 40% of the tax revenue.February 12, 2010 - 12:25 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
10. Aaron:
"… if you're good at something you better be prepared to give some of that success to those less fortunate or able. You don't deserve the fruit of your labor, others do. It's insanity."
It's amazing to me that the "champion of labor" and the party that believes it owns the end of slavery (simply because talk about it on non-stop playback) can say look at us out of one side of their mouth and then point to the people above and basically say they have no right to the fruits of their labor – they are, in effect, slaves.
My friend and I were wondering the other day, why it is that people who are heavily entrenched in videogames (live and breathe 'em) or work in the videogame/computer industries tend to be liberal; the vast majority, in fact.
This doesn't hold up to my experience. I'm a computer programmer by trade since 1996. Right now, there is only 1 democrat in the whole damn office (network type), whereas at AIG back in Cali, at least half the office was democrats.
If anything, the vast majority of (at least) programmers I've worked with have been conservative. Why? Probably because, by definition, we must be logical and think everything through and consider the alternatives lest we code ourselves into a big gigantic hole and waste precious time.
It's probably more the gamers, Facebook, Twitter, My Space and all those types would be the typical liberal – Enjoy the benefits of someone else's labor so they can hang with their friends without regard to where it all comes from – the sweat of some conservative somewhere.February 12, 2010 - 12:32 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
44. Tex Taylor
If we are going to truly get ourselves out of debt and quit ruining our kids future, we're fooling ourselves if the first word out of our mouth isn't "entitlements."
But I don't believe there is a politician alive who can get elected by focusing on the obvious, unless it is to further enrich the entitlements.
And the combination of the gutless elected and spurred on by the pampered puffs always demanding more will be our undoing, if we don't put a stop to it immediately.
I don't see a way out of this without a whole bunch of pain.February 12, 2010 - 12:36 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
45. Toronto Girl
Look to your neighbours to the north, America. Canada was once a great country…..full of pride, honor and with a European settlement history going back to the 1600′s. The Canadian army were exemplary, having fought in both WWI & II from the beginning. What happened to us 40 years ago is what it happening to the U.S. now. A charistmatic, well-spoken, socialist idealogue, who befriended despots and communists in the international community, rose to power in 1968. Pierre Trudeau wowed the masses and while the hapless Canadians allowed themselves to be hyponotized, he introduced socialized medicine, government control over the airlines, railways even the liquor industry. He opened the doors to immigration from 3rd-world hellholes and flooded her borders with aliens from every nation. Adding insult to injury, he began to replace the Judeo-Christian, Protestant work-ethic society of old (Trudeau himself was an athiest, and a staungh Francophone who hated the English) with a new "multicultural" nation. In short, in under 40 years, the Canada of my parents generation is gone forever. America still has time to save herself. Learn from Canada my friends, and stay strong.February 12, 2010 - 12:39 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
46. coisty
FWIW Wikipedia (yeah, yeah, I know) claims 53% of white Americans can still claim colonial ancestry.February 12, 2010 - 12:45 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
47. urbanleftbehind
If Rome is a valid comparison, what is the modern Byzantium? Wont they eventually get sacked worse (the Ottoman Turks)?
Yes, it has been said that without the continental Europeans (the Ellis Island crowd) there would have been no New Deal. An interesting development was the difference between the old German immigrants (pre-1848) and newer German immigrants (1848 to World War I). The earlier Germans were content to live and prosper within the confines of the English-based colonial and revolutionary society. 1848 and beyond saw a newer progressive German immigrant who was often boastful of his Volk and of the emergence of the unified German nation under Bismarck and the Kaisers. It was these Germans that embarked on German-language dailies, a distincly Germanocentric Lutheran Church. Germans immigrants were also instrumental in establishing public schools, park systems, and other expansions of the state, not to the degree that other groups have done more recently, but notable nonetheless.February 12, 2010 - 12:54 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
33. crk:
"Enough with the analysis. Solutions from Dr. Hanson and readers should become the focus."
Here's one off the top of my head.
Understanding what VDH is saying about retirement – basically kiss it goodbye. The perfect place to start is also an essential step in sorta rediscovering federalism. Social Insurance on the backs of the rich (aka Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare) must die! It is simply NOT the purvue of the nationalist (yes I say that on purpose) government to protect people from failure.
For the sake of brevity I'll just say it like this
Let the states and the people therein decide. If a state wants to run that little Ponzi scheme, let em (fail). If Mass wants socialized Medicine, let em (fail – as it is. Thx to a progressive Republican). I'm not going there. If Cali wants to cradle to grave their bunch of socialists, let em (fail – as they are. 500+ billion in debt and bankrupt). I wont go BACK there. When Tx chooses to let people handle it themselves, I'm moving to Tx.
By definition, we WILL see 50 (57 in Obama's world) different solutions to the problem. Some will be capitalistic and proper and successul to varying degrees and others will will be miserable socialist failures.
We WILL plainly see what works and what doesn't because thar aint gonna be no bailout at the end of this ponzi scheme failure.February 12, 2010 - 1:16 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
49. Paul of Alexandria
Supreme Allied Commander (12):
as for the Romans living with entitlements ..I don't know if they had food stamps or government welfare.
Yep, "bread and circuses", both provided "free" by the government.February 12, 2010 - 1:19 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
50. glenn
Old enough to be gone before the decline affects me. Kid's will be OK (or not, their choice) No grandkids. You boomers broke it, you fix it. And don't say you weren't warned.February 12, 2010 - 1:47 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
51. don
Don't worry good momma Obama will tuck all you children in, and auntie Pelosi will read you bed time stories about all the sugar and spice and everything nice here in the global village.February 12, 2010 - 1:55 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
52. gracie
#1 says it all.
I do believe that future generations will not know the wonderful freedon that we in the US have enjoyed. We have factors in our midst that work against these hard won freedoms every day.
I hate to say we are passive…but that is exactly what we have been. We vote in people that we know nothing about, don't bother to look further than they party they belong to. we don't bother to see what they are doing while in office.
I don't believe in entitlement programs.
you work for what you get forget those handouts!!! We give in too much to foreign concern…again..we have brought everything upon ourselves..and only we can get out.. With Obama, I feel it may be too late….
It is our fault. We are full of talk and empty on action.February 12, 2010 - 2:03 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
53. Supreme Allied Commander
49. Paul of Alexandria:
I stand corrected.
regardsFebruary 12, 2010 - 2:06 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
54. nofreelunch
Tex Taylor: But I don't believe there is a politician alive who can get elected by focusing on the obvious, unless it is to further enrich the entitlements.
In the past, this is true. Currently, we have a window of opportunity to change things,forever. Obama and his agenda has been a wakeup call. Many people see that both Parties are controlled by Power Seekers, who don't give a damn about anything but themselves. We're going to replace them in the next two elections with men and women who believe in the Constitution and American Exceptionalism. Help save our country, get involved!!!!!!!! That's the answer to the problem. join a "tea party" The results are obvious to everybody. Can you say Massachussetts?February 12, 2010 - 2:07 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
55. Wont Get Fooled Again
#13 Paul: Love that fiddle playin'!
Skeeziks where are you? Aren't you going to tell us how liberal progressives are going to save us from ruin?
Even with Obama in the WH, most American people are bright, resilient, resourceful, & hearty, and (gadzooks!) mostly right of center. We have survived nincompoops as President before (Carter comes immediately to mind), and we will again . . . our downfall will be sloth, gluttony (what's the childhood obesity rate now?), materialism, and illiteracy.
56. ajacksonian
Then there is the Late Bronze Age, and the more we learn of it the more complex it gets. Consider that the overwhelming majority of Linear B pieces are not poems, stories or even commentaries but commercial documents of the daily sort of how much of a good is to go to whom. Linear B shards are found all around the Eastern Med and as far north as Britain and Byelorussia, eastward to Mesopotamia and westward to Iberia and southward to the Axum region. This is not a description of a small culture, but one with extensive reach that went to far off places beyond the knowing of any individual.
This entire set of intertwined civilizations either fell or faced dire hardship when the late Bronze Age ended and the suspicion is that Troy was a part of it, a symptom but not a disease. The records of burned cities, mass migrations, wars that ended in stalemates and the fall of mighty kingdoms happened when their trade system started to fall apart. No one thing is the cause, but when the trade started to falter and forays against foreign trade centers might garner glory and gold, they happened. Pirates and land roving peoples brought war with them because the small city states could not rely on commerce nor expanse, and even the Hittites which had both fell as the Old Kingdom unrelated to their successors.
We see, today, trade falter and piracy and those roving by land to kill wantonly in warfare have been unopposed for decades. Rome, too, would face this on a slower march, while for the late Bronze Age it was mere decades from high point to dark age. Our mighty Navy no longer goes after pirates save in an off-handed way, and we dare not call those who wage war without any sanction as barbaric, less we offend them or our own effete sensibilities.
While the Eastern Empire would still consider themselves Romans, even blessed with one of the most capable generals in history they were unable to figure out how to piece the Empire back together again. They could win great victories and forget that it was the bureaucracy that kept the Empire going… and they no longer had enough bureaucrats to expand it. Thus even capability is meaningless without the skill to use it wisely.
What America lacks is a frontier to challenge us. The oceans are dull that way and get you only to the water. There are no places to go that haven't been explored to some degree, and when you do find that unexplored region and explore it, then there is ever less left unknown. We worried about the poor and foreclosed space, with boundless energy from the sun going wanting, because we would, indeed, make the poor into un-poor with billions of dollars. Yet we have the poor and we do not have space.
The late Bronze Age went to the limits of what those city states and kingdoms could do with their knowledge. As did Rome and Constantinople. We have boundless knowledge and capability, and yet we now restrict ourselves to navel gazing and worrying about 'health care' to the extent we will spend ourselves into oblivion providing it because 'we care'. But we don't care enough to provide the basis for a strong family to tend to the sick at home… nor to realize that there will always be a bottom 10% no matter how rich we are, but we can ensure that they benefit from our works and take their share of the load in proportion to all others. Instead we punish the capable to keep those at the bottom right where they are and tell them that is where they belong… not by sweet words but by actions and pay-offs.
Government enslaves us with nice things and the Nannystate.
Yet we are born free.
Too bad we fear our own freedom and that of our fellow man.
57. Tioedong
ah, but the loss of small farms and jobs for ordinary Latin folks resulted in the large unemployed slum population.
And the Antoinine plague, and the malaria in the swamps of Rome, led to depopulation and lethargy of the locals.
Of course, Europe is depopulating without malaria this time.February 12, 2010 - 2:17 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
58. Mike Sheard
Excellent read, thanks.
I think what this mean for me is I need to get busy and work as my father did. Six days a week (as the Bible says). Everyone needs to give time, talent and treasure and we can turn this thing around. I'm not quitting!February 12, 2010 - 2:30 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
59. Mike, CO
Each generation has had its qualms with changes in the next, but with our current generation, we may see a return to conservatism once practiced by earlier generations. If there is a cycle regarding the fate of large nations, it seems to be very long, up to 100 years or so. I base this frequency on the time elapsed from the great depression to the current economic crisis.
Where there is a will there is a way, so the question is do we collectively have enough will to overcome the challenges that we face? Apparently modern politics has emphasized individuals' lack of ability to solve large and complex problems — we can no longer believe that an individual is as wise or smart as government. Obama once said that government is the only solution, referring to the current economic crisis. If this patronization continues, Rome would be an appropriate analogy for the US. Obama's current stance is an example of overconfidence and complacency in not only government, but himself.
The framers of the Constitution might not have considered specifically how federal debt could indirectly lead to the dissolution of the country, or at least the eventual subversion of the Constitution. There is always an option to default on our debts, and cancel our obligations. However, the outcome may be a war which we are incapable of winning for our lack of a moral upper-hand. In that case history may show that Obama sowed the seeds of World War III.February 12, 2010 - 2:51 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
60. Donna V.
coisty and urbanleftbehind: Read about the Progressive Era and you will find out that quite a few members descended from the old WASP elite embraced Wilson's (and FDR's) progressivism with fervor. From John Reed to Bishop Shelby Spong, Mayflower descendants have been pretty well represented among the radical left in the US. The historian David Hackett Fischer has mapped out the areas of the US where the descendants of the Yankee settlers have had the most influence – New England, the Upper Midwest and the Pacific Northwest. Not exactly "red state" territory.
(The Scotch-Irish settlers who moved into the backwoods South and later Texas and the Southwest were a very different cup of tea.)February 12, 2010 - 2:54 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
61. Anonymous
#42 bastiches wrote Second, we can't assume a 10% cut in spending will result in 20% cut in public sector employment. You need to show your math there. The Stimulus added very few jobs, and I'd argue, even fewer of them can be called permanent as the Stimulus is temporary. Keynes would be shocked at the misinterpretation of his ideas.
So, for the sake of argument let's stick with 10% cut in spending reduces public sector employment by 10%.
My hypothetical10% cut would have been off the GWB budget, and if we really want to cut to te bone, make the cute of the GWB dudget before his bailout; then things get really scary, even if the Tea Party folks would like us to believe that that is what they think would have been better. So the budget would have ten percent lower than the pre-bailout budget and NO Obama stimulus.
No the Obama stimulus has not created enough jobs, but it has kept hundreds of thousands of teachers, firemen, policemen, and assorted other city, state, and Federal workers employed. Let's say that without it, unemployment would be at 11 1/2 per cent. Now, according to your theory, at some point business would kick in and start selling and expanding, but they would be selling to a greatly reduced demand. People are not buying cars and houses and we would have another 1 1/2 percent hunkering down on unemployment, looking for jobs, losing their houses, definitely NOT buying stuff. I won't try to tell you that the stimulus has been a great success, but NOT to bail out, and not to stimulate, and actually to CUT, instead would AT THIS TIME have us closer to a depression. Your view is, evidently, that this strong medicine would lead to our cure, but even with all the stimulus money states and town are now making big cuts; imagine the cuts and unemployment WITHOUT the stimulus. Would you really take that chance?
62. ad Martem
We need new frontier; the space programs should be expanded and not terminated. To the moon! On to Mars!
63. coisty
Donna V,
Some good points, though New England hasn't been WASP for quite some time. Also FDR was more successful in the South than New England where Hoover won 4 of 6 states in 1932.February 12, 2010 - 3:11 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
64. bill
Solid gold, been waiting for this column. History repeats itself. The other real cause for concern not mentioned is the fact the Roman's didn't have weapons of mass destruction. I hope saner heads prevail and we don't find ourselves electing a Caligula. Obama is a good man but maybe the wrong man for the office. One of Pres. Bush's admirable qualities was his resolve.
Speaking of 84 year olds with broken hips, heard of one on the radio today. This gal wanted to sue the bowling alley where she fell for something like improper footwear or poorly maintained surfaces. The more pampered we are the more we need someone else to blame. Apparently even for the aging process in this persons case.February 12, 2010 - 3:32 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
65. Tex Taylor
Old enough to be gone before the decline affects me. Kid's will be OK (or not, their choice) No grandkids. You boomers broke it, you fix it. And don't say you weren't warned.
Fair enough point, being I hated for my entire life being that the very back of the boomers as I felt unduly penalized. Surely, they could have divided up as 19 years quite a stretch for classification purposes. Two points.
First, don't hardly think you can claim the looming Social Security bankruptcy to be broken on account solely of the boomers. How about we tally up what you paid versus what you will have received and you can pay back with interest? The greatest benefactors of the Ponzi scheme called Social Security are those that came first – that would be you.
Second, which set of parents was it that raised the boomer rascals again? Your generation's parental record hasn't demonstrated the wisdom of Solomon.February 12, 2010 - 3:39 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
66. tanstaafl
We've peaked and are slowly descending the right side of the Bell Curve ?
Highly likely.
You're spot on here, professor (maybe I shouldn't say professor since, following Sarah Palin's observations last weekend on our esteemed president, some Ivy League wag has decided professor is a racist code word)
shadowing the polls, flipping and flopping like a salmon in the death throesFebruary 12, 2010 - 3:55 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
VDH – "An enjoyable slow decline is apparently preferable to a short, but painful rethinking and rebirth."
Great line.
BTW, I was in Rome a year ago – it seemed fine. What's all the fuss?February 12, 2010 - 3:56 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
68. M. Report
Why Did Rome Fall—And Why Does It Matter Now?
On the One hand, human nature has not changed.
On the Other hand, human technology has given
us powers that rival those of the Roman gods.
On the Gripping Hand, if the US does not use
technology to rescue itself from the coming
Hard Times, the nation which rises up out of
the wreckage will be at best Byzantium, and
at worst no better than the rest of the 2nd
world, which is all that will be left.
Sustaining our exceptional society over the
longer term will require social engineering,
though not the sort the Left champions;
Children need to be raised by parents who
consider that task Job One, in an environment
comparable to small-town America circa 1900;
Once they are grown, they will be able to live
in a futuristic society without giving in to
its corrupting temptations.February 12, 2010 - 3:59 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
69. Dr. T
"What made American culture boom through much of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries were traditional American values like the Protestant work ethic, family thrift, limited and stable government, equality of opportunity rather than result, lower taxes, personal freedom, opportunity for advancement and profit, and faith in American exceptionalism."
Limited and stable government ended with Lincoln and the Civil War. Lower taxes ended with the onset of the federal income tax in the early 1900s. Family thrift ended in the 1970s when inflation and tax laws rewarded borrowers and punished savers. Personal freedoms have been whittled away for over a century as the Bill of Rights has been converted by Congress and the Supreme Court to the Bill of Limited Rights, Some Privileges, and New Federal Powers.
Americanization spread mostly because of three factors: our wealth, our military power, and our propensity for sticking our noses into trouble spots around the world.
Our current decline results mostly from just two flaws of mankind. The first flaw is a seemingly innate desire to concentrate power. If an individual cannot be a strong power, he wants to belong to a group with a strong leadership. Hence, we "progressed" from a true federal system with semi-sovreign states to our current system with an immensely powerful national government. The second flaw is the desire to grab all one can now without concern for ones neighbors or the next generation. Hence we have tens of millions sucking on the teats of our various governments and driving the nation into a debt-laden financial catastrophe.February 12, 2010 - 4:14 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
70. Richard
Summed up;
We grew fat and got lazy…..February 12, 2010 - 4:17 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
71. Salty Alaskan
Anonymous #61:
And what of this year, and next? That money was BORROWED to "save" those teachers, firemen, policemen and assorted other city, federal and state worker jobs. Those same people did nothing to help repay that new debt, and now where will the money come from to "save" their jobs this year? Or next year? The year after that?
We haven't "saved" anything, only delayed the inevitable.February 12, 2010 - 4:34 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
72. R. Richard Schweitzer
Good Doctor:
May I suggest another avenue of historic exploration:
Something over 50-odd years ago In a private, non-academic chat, at a friend's house, Colin Clark, the Economic Statistician, who originated the concept that has become GNP spoke about some research he was doing on historic evidence indicating that there was probably a maximum level (he thought it was going to work out to be around 25%)that what is the equivalent of a "public sector" can extract from its aggregate economy over a sustained period without social disintegration and even ultimate destruction.
He spoke of the evidence he noted of wide-spread "public works" as an indicator of extractions in the historic contexts, but how difficult it was to assemble the kinds of factual indicators that would satisfy his goal of statistical probity. He did specifically mention what he had learned about Rome in that regard, as a supporting example.
I have never found any citations to publications of his efforts, but that figure fo 25% has stuck with me.February 12, 2010 - 4:44 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
73. marsouin
The Founders, as Whigs – liberal republicans, did not look to emulate the Roman Empire as it was a corrupt political system. Instead, they tried to improve upon the Republic. It was this model, re-introduced by Machiavelli in The Discourses on Livy, far and away his most influential book, the English republicans sought to build upon.
The Whigs harbored no love for the Empire and felt no loss with its fall. So, we shouldn't care about its demise, but rather that of the Republic.
74. Samson
71. Salty Alaskan:
probably why he/she posted anonymous.
the debt is going to sink the economy. it really requires big spending cuts. which I don't see happening in the short term.
75. sule
Alexander Fraser Tyler, Cycle Of Democracy (1770)
A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over lousy fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.
The average of the world's great civilizations before they decline has been 200 years. These nations have progressed in this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; from faith to great courage; from courage to liberty; from liberty to abundance; from abundance to selfishness; from selfishness to Complacency; from complacency to apathy; from apathy to dependency; from dependency back again to bondage.
I can top your "sirloin" story. In my state, they buy crab legs. And candy bars. Oh, wait, here's another: one homeless guy used his food stamps (at that time) to purchase a $40.00 ham and then sell it on the street for $10.00. Needed smokes, I think.
The fellow who got it for the tenner showed the original receipt around the office…do I win?February 12, 2010 - 6:30 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
76. Warren Bonesteel
Depends on what the definition of entitlement is…
Social Security is an entitlement. VA health care is an entitlement. We think that we are entitled to anything and everything. Instead of saving and preparing for our own retirement and trying to give something to the kids and grandkids, we mortgage our lives…homes, new vehicles, credit cards, education, even vacations, new furniture and wardrobes and other forms of debt are now 'entitlements. Then, we complain about our loss of freedom and liberty. We want everything from government and bitterly complain about high taxes and government interference in our private lives.
We get the government we deserve and ask for. We complain that our elected representatives have ignored The Constitution, when we have ignored it.February 12, 2010 - 6:37 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
77. Anonymous
As for Rome? For most of its history, it was ruled under one form or another of dictatorship. Why do ya think Brutus eventually killed Ceasar? Cesar was a tyrant and dictator. Not that Brutus and his compatriots reversed Ceasar's course. They merely replaced on tyrant with another. (Tyrants always purchase their support through some form of 'taxation'…taxation always leads to some form of 'redistributing the wealth.') Rome lasted as long as it did because no one else was ever powerful enough to challenge it, politically, economically or militarily. (Although towards the end, it was arguably ruled by puppets of other empires.)
For most of its history, Europe was ruled by tyrants and oligarchic elitists. Rule under the Church and the Popes was even more abusive. This didn't even begin to change until the Enlightenment. A good part of the author's exegesis is founded upon the worst form of romanticism.February 12, 2010 - 6:48 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
78. angela
in our school district alone…we are losing 300 teachers/adm…
Where did you say those saved jobs were? afghanistan, the moon? speak up , i can't hear you!!! i want to hear specifics, not blabber..February 12, 2010 - 7:04 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
79. angela
in our school district alone…we are losing 300 teachers/adm…
Where did you say those saved jobs were? afghanistan, the moon? speak up , i can't hear you!!! no one can give me specifics, just generalities, what happens when they employ people now and can't afford it because there are no funds later.
Tired of hearing useless "prop up the puppet president" blabber.. It's getting to be like hearing the word racists. It meansFebruary 12, 2010 - 7:07 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
80. Samson
75. sule:
oooch …sad. I think that is the winner,February 12, 2010 - 7:15 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
81. Rosinante
Steve, ALL Empires of that period were founded on slavery. Even the barbarians kept slaves.
The closest analogy today, IMHO, is OIL. All modern nations are based on OIL.
I'm of the 'there is no single reason' school of thought. Oman says strategic overstretch, which I think combined with the stirrup making the Legion obsolete did the trick. The stirrup and the composite bow gave the horse tribes off the steppes a more powerful military.
Even if Rome had been in perfect political health, the Legion wasn't fast enough to catch the horsemen and couldn't defeat them if they did.
Please note that the main military unit of the Eastern Roman Empire (Byzantine) was the mounted, armored archer. I can't remember if they used a composite bow or not. I think not, which greatly reduced the power of their standoff weapons. The Eastern Empire survived another thousand years by adopting and improving on the weapons and tactics of those that destroyed the Western Empire.
If one looks at the fall of the Romans as a military defeat caused by falling behind the tech curve, then there is no parallel with 21st century America. Which is why those jealous of the USA don't want to see that.
Somebody somewhere has been predicting America's downfall since 1776 or so.
Our military technology is waaaaaay beyond any other nation, or even combination of nations. In a no-holds barred war, the USA could easily defeat the rest of the world. We have the only production stealth aircraft and the best anti-missile system. That means we could nuke anyone else without fear of retribution.
Not that we would, of course. The Romans would. They didn't play around. Which is another thing that makes the USA-Rome comparison invalid.February 12, 2010 - 7:22 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
82. wGraves
The present administration seems to believe its own economic and social nostrums. It develops that this is an acute error on their part. The sudden discovery, by our President, that he is 'agnostic' on the subject of middle class taxes, merely shows how badly at sea the administration flounders. Waves of economic reality assault the ship of state. Moody's warned this week of a possible downgrade to the rating of US Treasuries. California, New Jersey, New York and a few other states are effectively bankrupt. They can no longer meet their obligations. So the wake up call will arrive with the 2010 election. What happens then will be quite interesting.February 12, 2010 - 7:52 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
83. Leatherneck
I don't have time to post my views on this subject. I have to get back to work to pay for some lazy individual's food stamps, healthcare, housing…February 12, 2010 - 7:55 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
84. myth buster
61. Recessions are painful, and depressions even more so, but trying to avoid that pain tends to make things worse. The economic downturn may not be as deep, but it will last longer because of the intervention.February 12, 2010 - 8:31 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
85. Christin
Dr. Hanson,
Brilliant as ever, and scarily too accurate for undisturbed sleeping habits. Next time we're visiting our daughter in the East Bay, we'd enjoy sharing a glass of iced tea and chatting about farming, how to assist people to open their eyes and KNOW what's happening before them. And just enjoy knowing that you and we are on the same page and hope there are more folks THINKING things through before saying 'well, I guess it'll be OK'.
Maybe the NEXT generation will be fed up with the Uber parental-units who are mandating WHAT they should be doing from DC. The pendulum needs to SWING a bit broader arc before it is too late.
Keep reminding us of Classical History, I for one don't wish to repeat it.
CWK 'Live Freeze or Die' in NHFebruary 12, 2010 - 8:34 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
86. Mike2
"eventually the old western and southern provinces neither could protect what they had created nor could continue to be as productive as in the past nor believed that being Roman was any better than the alternative."
And the alternative by the 400′s was joining the Goths and becoming tribal people again. At least in the Germanic tribal world there was a sense of equality and freedom from the rapacious imperial tax collectors and the regimentation of society instituted by Diocletian.February 12, 2010 - 8:42 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
87. Dwight
What follows is less coherent than usual (I think) but here goes:
I hear a lot of what is wrong and agree with a lot of it. But can people see that many of the problems are cultural in a way that cuts across the red-blue divide? And I haven't heard all that many "solutions" probably because because other people also know that the problems are deep in the culture.
"Belt tightening" can mean paying increased taxes, can't it? The Reagan way was to cut taxes and keep spending. Obama promised not to raise taxes on people over $250,000, but when you are trying to create jobs for people with none at all, if the people with them have to shell out a little more, it is hardly the end of western civilization as we know it or socialism, unless you think that ANY increase in taxes automatically equals socialism in your minds.
The Tea Partiers know that they are disgusted and want government to shrink drastically, but it would take a leap of faith beyond what I am willing to make that such a move would fix things.
My concern is that we have this sense that we must somehow toughen up, restore discipline to our lives, maybe even not borrow and spend wastefully, BUT all our solutions seem to also involve consuming more to create more wealth for the producers and producing jobs. GWB took flak from the left for telling people to go out and spend after 9/11, but realistically what else was going to bring the economy back so that we could create what seemed like wealth at the time until the housing bubble burst? What else beside billions for TARP was going to keep everything from grinding to a halt and yielding, (according to Paulson who was just on Greta), 25% unemployment?
I can and do buy a lot less than my finances would permit and have no debt at all, but is my tendency to conserve, spoiling things because I am not buying a new car to stimulate the economy? Before I felt good about saving and not spending; now I feel a little guilty.
But I don't NEED a new car, nor do I WANT one. How un-American, eh?February 12, 2010 - 9:32 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
88. Kipling
Let me sum up Dr. Hanson main point: Fiscal conservatism will not happen unless we renew and recommit ourselves to our social conservative principles.
You cannot have fiscal responsibility without the social conservative values that undergird it. Fiscal conservatives who reject social conservatives are undermining their own stated goals.February 12, 2010 - 10:24 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
89. lefroy
"Those from the Black Sea to the Nile and from Portugal to Iraq were now subject to habeas corpus"
Great article, as usual, but habeas corpus! I don't think so!!February 12, 2010 - 10:42 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
90. Anshaw
Prof. Hanson:
How about a suggested reading list on Rome from, say, Caesar to the end of the Empire? Especially biographies.February 12, 2010 - 11:21 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
91. Gary Ogletree
We have some assets the Romans didn't. The Constitution and our not quite forgotten traditions give us a shot at renewal without starting over from scratch after apocalyptic chaos. Just say no to both dictatorship by the vanguard of the revolution and the protection of modern day feudal lords. We have the resources at hand, if we can restore equal justice we can get it together one more time.February 13, 2010 - 5:01 am Link to this Comment | Reply
92. JadedByPolitics
I have been using Rome as an example for the last 20 years as things have gotten "progressively" worse in our beautiful country and if someone doesn't put the breaks on this spending and people don't learn to take care of themselves WE will indeed go the way of the Romans just a heck of a lot quicker!February 13, 2010 - 5:35 am Link to this Comment | Reply
93. eon
As James Burke points out in "Connections", the final nail in the Western Empire's coffin was the separation of the Eastern Empire. The process is complex.
When the two Empires separated, the Western empire found itself trying to support a vast bureaucracy, based mainly in Rome itself, plus a majority of the Legions- on about half the tax base they had previously had. Due to entrenched interest groups and even hereditary sinecures in offices, it was considered impossible to cut the size and cost of the government. At the same time, there were increased demands for what we would now call "social services", principally government-subsidized foodstuffs, notably bread. And far fewer slaves to do the actual work of producing anything.
One result of this was increased use of what we would call today "industrial technology". The great flour mill at Barbegal, France, with ten double sets of waterwheels driving millstones arrayed on the side of a hill, was just one example of the technological response. The other result, however, was what did the real damage. The government raised taxes to cover its ("uncuttable") expenses.
As Burke relates, this began a downward spiral of population over the next few generations. People had to pay higher taxes, so they had less money to support their families, hence the birthrate fell. The next generation was smaller, forming a smaller tax base, but the expenses of government were the same, or even larger- so taxes were raised again to cover the expenses. Within two centuries, the Western Empire literally went bankrupt.
A side effect of this was that the Legions defending the West became less Roman and more localized, with poorer training, discipline, and equipment. When the "barbarians" from different directions came calling, they faced not Roman legions, but legions of Romanized Franks and Burgundians- whom they destroyed fairly easily. The end, of course, was the sack of Rome.
The moral of this is that if your bureaucracy becomes overly expensive, you are in trouble. If it is at the same time unable to perform its basic functions (like defending the nation-state and its people from foreign enemies), you've just turned out the lights on your civilization.
clear ether
eonFebruary 13, 2010 - 5:46 am Link to this Comment | Reply
94. Anonymous
VDH wrote –"We could instill a tragic rather than therapeutic world view that would mean more responsibilities rather than endlessly more rights. "
Dr. Hanson–you and Dr. Sowell are true treasures of this country. I pray that you continue to divulge your wisdom and illuminate the right way forward. Thank you for your expertise. You are truly a man gifted with a skill that many of us benefit from every week. Excellent work, sir.February 13, 2010 - 6:35 am Link to this Comment | Reply
95. Luke
America is Rome. Not the Roman Empire, but the Roman Republic.
The Republic phase lasted around 300 years, until Rome started to decline into decadence. A totalitarian ruler snapped them out of it, and forced them to expand. I pray that doesn't happen in the U.S. (especially as a Canadian, we'd be the first to fall)
The Empire lasted longer because of the ruthless expansion, which as Dr. Hanson clearly shows, allowed their corrupt and decadent state to fend off destruction.
The Republic fell because of a brilliant military mind with no patience for his enemies. Julius Caesar effectively ended the republic. In my opinion, he would have failed to run it. His death opened the door for a charismatic schemer, Augustus, to take the reigns of power.
America may have skipped the Julius phase, and gone right to Augustus.
(hat tip to Orson Scott Card for mentioning the parallel. I just expanded on it.)February 13, 2010 - 6:36 am Link to this Comment | Reply
96. Salty Alaskan
Dwight #87
""Belt tightening" can mean paying increased taxes, can't it?"
No! How is taking MORE from those earning and producing to give to those who aren't in any way fiscally responsible? That's exactly what has brought us to this point. Your own life is a clear illustration of fiscal responsibility – spend less than you earn.
Up until the modern era the federal government's portion of GDP was, in effect, petty cash, and their profligate ways didn't really impact the overall economy(policies were/are a different matter). Now however, we've allowed the federal government to bloat to a size that is intrusive in every way, and whatever they do impacts the economy and our lives. This is the exact opposite of what the founders had in mind.February 13, 2010 - 6:59 am Link to this Comment | Reply
97. Quebec Man
Toronto Girl is right on!!!!
Although we do not (yet) have the debt per capita as the Americans but we are going for the gold! Our federal public interest is costing Canadian taxpayers $1,000 per second! Much of this is because the boomers and their parents were hypnotized by Lester B Pearson and Pierre Trudeau and the Liberal party – especially in Ontario- people in Quebec are no better – just give them their welfare money so they can buy their lottery tickets, cancer sticks, hockey sticks and their rich french cuisine and they will be satisfied.
BEWARE AMERICA – we are not Venezuela ( thanks to the Americans who buy 2/3 at least of our output) but the story of Canada will end badly: aging euro rooted population, debts at all levels of society, expensive property prices that the Xers cannot afford, sales tax 12.875%, property taxes, high cost of gasoline, high personal income taxes, capital taxes, WE HAVE IT ALL you OBAMA, SCHUMER and BARNEY FRANKS maniacs!February 13, 2010 - 7:28 am Link to this Comment | Reply
98. Ben Grivno
While I agree there are many parallels we can draw from the long decline of the Roman Empire, I think there are far too many dissimilarities to accurately predict the future of the US.
Rome had emperors, we have voters.
Rome had papyrus, we have the Internet.
Rome had slaves, all of our people are free.
Rome was geographically vulnerable, we are surrounded by Canada, Mexico and the Ocean.
Rome kept the land they conquered as their own, we give our conquered land back and pay for its reconstruction.
Rome had chariots and swords, we have flying lasers that can shoot down missiles.
Rome had room to grow, we have Antarctica, the moon, and Mars.
And many, many more.
Rome rightly serves as a warning to the perils of moral decline (aka postmodernism, neoliberalism), but it's a lousy indicator of where we're going. We are not Romans, but we are Americans.February 13, 2010 - 7:33 am Link to this Comment | Reply
99. Phil Byler
I would enjoy a critique by Professor Hanson on the books and their reasons analyzing the question why the Roman Empire "fell"?
Personally, I always thought that Gibbons was very wrong in fingering Christianity. There was not just the Christian Eastern Roman Empire to suggest otherwise, but also the fact that Christianity was very present in the rise of post-medieval Europe, the rise of America and the case of a vibrant present day South Korea. Indeed, as to Europe and America, the existence of cultural corruption accompanies the decline of Christianity.February 13, 2010 - 7:34 am Link to this Comment | Reply
100. Judester
Pres. Carter created the Department of Energy in 1972 ( I think) to get us off foreign oil. The DOE now has 16,000 employees and a budget this year of 23+ BILLION dollars and we're still on foreign oil. WTFFebruary 13, 2010 - 7:42 am Link to this Comment | Reply
101. Rosinante
#88, Kipling, What you said.
I recently sent off a massive to my Senator. He is a Conservative Republican that I chastized for playing the politics game with Senator Dodd. They want to re-write the rules for the finincial sector.
I laughed at them, then pointed out the rules they are re-writing were written to prevent what happened. Obviously somebody found a loophole. I asked Senator Corker why he thought this re-write would work out any better then the last few re-writes?
If you want to solve ANY problem, first you have to look past the symptoms to see what the actual cause of the problem is.
In the USA, it's a "culture of corruption" to steal a phrase from the Demonrats. That greed crosses all social and political lines.
My suggestion for fixing wall street wasn't a bunch of new rules that will create new loop holes, representiung business as usual. I suggested that ANY and ALL stocks sold within a year of being bought be taxed at 300% of face value when sold. Within 2 years 200%, 3 years 100%, 4 years the current 38% ( I think, I abandoned the stock market the day after Congress went to the demons). 5 years, no taxes.
This would put a halt to the 'get-rich-quick' mentality.
Nothing wrong with getting rich, so long as you earn it. Getting rich quick is almost always done at the expense of someone else, which makes it a crime or immoral.
Get rid of the amoral, get rick quick with OPM guys and Wall Street will be the wonderful thing it should be. A stable place to raise capitol.
Not a crap game were everybody except John Q Public has an automatic weapon and the die are loaded.February 13, 2010 - 7:49 am Link to this Comment | Reply
102. M. Report
Why Did Rome Fall—And Why Does It Matter Now?
Two data:
Five thousand years of Imperial rise and fall
compressed into 90 seconds worth of video;
Note the anomalous origin of the Roman pulse.
An educated opinion as to the last point at
which the Roman Empire could have been saved
and how.
@ 81. Rosinante: War Tech
In the story referenced above, the innovator
introduced several military inventions,
including the stirrup…and the crossbow. :)
Why does it matter ?
Because the next world Empire will not have
our anomalous American Exceptionalism, and
our Empire can be saved by developing new
Hi-Tech capital goods, made in the USA, only.
103. John Galt
"Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
Professor, thank you for a timeless less that the world refuses to learn. We are at the crossroads of a society built upon the premise that "all men are created equal by their creator with certain unalienable rights" where those rights were predicated upon the individual finding his or her potential in a society that fostered enlightenment to one that now declares everything a "right" even at the expense of someone else.
Which path do we take? Do we follow those who have contributed nothing to society other than community agitation and the rebuking of the very principles that made this nation unique among all others? Do we continue to demonize the productive members of society while demanding that one's labor be redistributed more "fairly" to those who use government bureaucracy to legally take what was the property of others?
As with Rome, we have been in the process of eroding away our identity. VDH's line about the "Americanization" of the rest of the world only to lose touch with the prosperity that we inherited from those who built the society our leaders in Washington now soundly reject.
Alexis de Tocqueville stated, "But one also finds in the human heart a depraved taste for equality, which impels the weak to want to bring the strong down to their level, and which reduces men to preferring equality in servitude to inequality in freedom." Equality can sacrifice morality for personal gain at the expense of societal well-being. As has been pointed out by many in history, security in exchange for freedom will result in neither.
We have begun down that path of self-destruction and, as VDH pointed out, whether we continue remains to be seen. Hard decisions remain to be made. Do we start making them now when there still is a choice or do we wait until the choices are made for us?
104. Troy Riser
I am leery of Gibbons being invoked whenever the topic turns to the United States and our current troubles. True enough, societal and cultural decline among various civilizations over time contain commonalities. We are human, after all, and human nature is seemingly unchanging, whatever the time and place. Greed and stupidity and the pursuit of shortsighted self-interest, for example, are constants. But so is courage, so is honesty, so is a willingness to sacrifice for the greater good. Given these constants of human nature and the similarities found in the yaw and sway of history, the invitation to compare one civilization to another and to find the inevitable and the predictable is irresistible–even comforting–to any serious scholar. However, we are not Rome, nor are we Babylon or Sumeria, for that matter. In the scheme of things, the American experiment in individual liberty is something new and different, and the outcome of this experiment–I would argue–is not so easily forced into the Amazing Gibbons' Decline & Fall Fortune-telling Machine.
The Magic 8-ball says Come Back Later.February 13, 2010 - 8:35 am Link to this Comment | Reply
105. misanthropicus
[...] brought previously unproductive tribal folk into the Roman system at precisely the time old Romans were no longer doing the things that had once created their own vibrant culture that swept the Mediterranean — the ancient version of the Chinese youth working 10 hours in an Adidas factory while an American counterpart is still "finding himself." [...]
Oh, lord – you made my day -February 13, 2010 - 8:58 am Link to this Comment | Reply
106. misanthropicus
Americans, be optimistic when compare Rome's dawnfall with today's America situation!
The anti prop 8 plaintiffs in the San Francisco trial invoked positive elements from Rome's decadence – Nero, Caligula and Heliogabalus were mentioned as edifying role models as marriage goes -February 13, 2010 - 9:02 am Link to this Comment | Reply
107. Javelin
More chicken little sky is falling dreck from the "distinguished" professor. It seems the kind of people who talk the most about American exceptionalism seem utterly un-exceptional.February 13, 2010 - 9:14 am Link to this Comment | Reply
108. RickGreenvilleSC
Great article, sir!! Great posts too! I often learn a lot from these posts-seeing things from a little different perspective. I am /have been a stonemason for 20 years.I have noticed a growing disdain for those of us who earn a living with our minds and hands, even from fellow "conservatives" who often seem to think we are too stupid to have done anything else, but yet when thir car breaks down, our pipes break , or roof leaks. . . they become our best friends. This elitist attitude has permeated Washington and in fact many local governments and is helping, I believe , to hasten America's decline. Add in the influx of illegals, and we are in a world of hurt.Perhaps a nation-wide belt tightening will help. Maybe we will see. . .
109. kirk
"Rome was a slave society, the comparison fails."
As the amount of debt and taxes continue to mount. We the people have been essentially enslaved by our govt to pay for it. More and more of your wages and time are taken by threat of force/jail by elected/nonelected people wether you like it or not.
When you figure in fees, sales tax, income tax, etc etc that is part of EVERYTHING you do, your govt has enslaved you for well over half the year.
Want proof? Just try and name one thing you do that has not been regulated or taxed in some way. Breathing? nope.. the epa. Sleeping? nope.. check out that mattress ticket.. it goes on and on.
ALL taxes, fees, regulations are paid for by you and me. Those "evil" corps pass everything through to us as a cost of doing business.
Solutions? We elect them, WE have to vote all of them out. "R" or "D". Right wing or Left wing. They are in it together. Get them out and reclaim your freedom or enjoy being a slave to your govt.
Toronto Girl, #45
Toronto Girl is absolutely right about Canada. I'm an American married to a Canadian. We moved to Ontario in 2007, at which time my education about Canada began. Within two weeks of moving here, we met with my husband's financial advisor. The first words out of his mouth to me were, "You do realize that you're now living in a socialist country." I've been realizing it ever since. When we bought our house here, my husband put us on a list to get a doctor. Eighteen months later, we were still waiting to get a doctor. Would this ever happen in the U.S.? We did finally find a doctor, the only one for about a hundred kilometers who was taking on new patients. We were forced to become this doctor's patients. If we didn't become his patients, we would not have a doctor. I don't know if this doctor is a good doctor or a hack. The point is that my freedom to choose my own doctor was taken away from me. I was able to ask around and get recommendations for a good vet for my cat. I was able to ask around and get recommendations for a good dentist. I was unable, however, to ask around and get recommendations for a good doctor. For the most important and personal professional I need, I was unable to choose. I had an appointment with this doctor and told him I needed a mammogram and an annual gynecological exam. I had no choice in choosing the gynecologist. He had to give his permission for these two appointments. I had to wait two months for the mammogram and four months for the gynecological appointment. In Minnesota, I would have had these appointments completed within ten days. Periodically, on Canadian TV, lotteries are telecast, in which someone on a city council dips his or her hand into a box and withdraws four names. These people whose names are drawn can now have a doctor. Is this what we want in the U.S.?
There are other things wrong here. The government absolutely controls the liquor and tobacco industries. Therefore, they can jack up the prices to whatever they want. I like to drink some beers. A case of beer here costs $40.55. For that money, I can get two cases of beer and have change left over in Minnesota. The government controls the airlines. Last September, I flew to Washington, D.C. for the 912 march and rally. My sister was flying from Minnesota to meet me there. She got a round-trip direct flight for $239. My flight from Toronto cost $800! (Have to pay for all the "free" health care here.) Just one more example (and there are many more): Our trash is picked up by government workers. Every week, we put our animal-proof barrels out and every week, the workers leave the barrel lids laying in the middle of the street. In Minnesota, I could have called our trash hauling company and issued a warning: If your guys don't replace the lids on the barrels, I'll cancel my account with you and get a different company to pick up my trash. I can guarantee you that the next week, my barrels would be properly looked after. I could vote with my pocketbook and my feet in Minnesota. Here, I have no recourse. If I called and complained here, they'd laugh at me. Some of these things may seem like small things, but add them up and freedom here is limited.
Anybody who wants Obama's socialist agenda doesn't understand what the consequences will be. You will lose freedoms. The prices of goods and services will skyrocket. You will be taxed to the hilt (here we pay taxes on taxes–the GST–the insiduous tax on a tax). You will have your right to choose your own healthcare taken away from you, if you can even get a doctor. You will have to wait months and months for medical care. Wake up America and get busy to prevent this from happening in America!February 13, 2010 - 9:50 am Link to this Comment | Reply
111. nohype
This article is looking for commonalities between the U.S. and the Roman Empire. Aren't the more interesting comparisons between the U.S. and the fall of the Roman Republic in the first and second centuries B.C.? Roman was vigorous and dynamic under the Republic but largely stagnant under the Empire. It was in period of the Republic that it grew from nothing to the dominant power of the Mediterranean. When the republic collapsed (Julius Caesar delivered the coup de gras), there were no competing states left to challenge Rome, which is one reason that it continued to exist for centuries living on its past achievements. If Rome had had a rival like Carthage when the republic collapsed, it would quickly have been conquered.
What caused the collapse of the Roman Republic, and are there parallels to our current condition?February 13, 2010 - 9:51 am Link to this Comment | Reply
112. Jeff
Rome was not overstretched. Its land mass did not change much from the reign of Augustus to the fall of the west; there was a little back in forth in the far east, in Germania, and Dacia, but nothing substantial until the Germanic invasions of the 4th and 5th centuries. In fact, almost all of the empire was secured by the time of the late Republic.February 13, 2010 - 9:53 am Link to this Comment | Reply
113. Mike Antonucci
I feel well out of my element engaging Prof. Hanson on ancient history, but if we mirror Rome, why can we not also mirror Byzantium?
The Empire survived through a physical relocation of power to the Eastern capital. Perhaps America's additional thousand years of existence requires an economic, social and political relocation of power away from our Eastern capital.February 13, 2010 - 10:01 am Link to this Comment | Reply
Do you honestly believe that the Stim Money saved police and fire jobs, ha,ha. Do yourself a favor and compare your police and fire budgets to your city or towns total budget and tell me there is no fat in there 'general funds.' Number one priorty of government is protection, which is always the politician's first cut because it will get replaced with Stim Money or tax increases. Thus, no budget cuts at all.February 13, 2010 - 10:04 am Link to this Comment | Reply
115. proreason
I'm no expert in Roman history, but if somebody has already found hundreds of reasons for the decline of Rome, and Mr. Hanson can easily articulate multiple parallels between Rome and our country's current plight, it strikes me that one could read virtually anything into what Rome did or didn't do.
It's not that I disagree on any particular points with Mr. Hanson, who is a genius and a hero of mine, but his analysis is interesting but not particularly informative. I'm keen on the lessons of history, but not thousands of lessons. They get lost in the chatter.
Our problems are much simpler than any comparison with Rome implies.
We have abandoned the principles that made the country what it was in the 1950′s. We have lost our pride, our love of country, our faith in our own power and goodness, the cohesiveness that made us all believe that we were in it together and could solve any problem, because we always had done so.
And the abandonment is not by random events. 300 million Americans didn't gradually convince themselves that we are really a country of 20 ethnicities by 10 religions by 10 social strata by 3 sexualities by 5 political ideologies, by 8 languages, by by…… whatever. Oh no. Certainly, that fragmentation is now true, but Americans didn't do the convincing. Some people worked very hard for many years to convince us of that pernicious fallacy.
And the convincers weren't Ronald Reagan, or Dwight Eisenhower, or George Bush either. It's all manner of liberals who have worked for 50 years to do the convincing, and whether you call them communists, fascists, socialists, oligarchists or progressives, they have certainly been consistent in their efforts to rip this country apart. Race baiters, feminists, secular progressives, homosexual activists, Marxists, anti-religious zealots, union thugs and all manner of opportunistic conmen and hustlers have dedicated themselves to fragmenting America's population and exploiting that fragmentation for their own gain, be it financial, political or for pure power.
Funny how all of that aligns so perfectly with the agenda of the Communist Party, isn't it?February 13, 2010 - 10:16 am Link to this Comment | Reply
116. elfman2
This is a very thoughtful piece. Its wondering and complex sentences are hard to read, but worth the effort for the insight into Americas circumstances.February 13, 2010 - 10:18 am Link to this Comment | Reply
117. proreason
I'm no expert in Roman history, but if somebody has already found hundreds of reasons for the decline of Rome, and Mr. Hanson can easily articulate multiple parallels between Rome and our country's current plight, it strikes me that one could read virtually anything into what Rome did or didn't do.
It's not that I disagree on any particular points with Mr. Hanson, who is a genius and a hero of mine, but his analysis is interesting but not particularly informative. I'm keen on the lessons of history, but not thousands of lessons. They get lost in the chatter.
Our problems are much simpler than any comparison with Rome implies.
We have abandoned the principles that made the country what it was in the 1950′s. We have lost our pride, our love of country, our faith in our own power and goodness, the cohesiveness that made us all believe that we were in it together and could solve any problem, because we always had done so.
And the abandonment is not by random events. 300 million Americans didn't gradually convince themselves that we are really a country of 20 ethnicities by 10 religions by 10 social strata by 3 sexualities by 5 political ideologies, by 8 languages, by by…… whatever. Oh no. Certainly, that fragmentation is now true, but Americans didn't do the convincing. Some people worked very hard for many years to convince us of that pernicious fallacy.
And the convincers weren't Ronald Reagan, or Dwight Eisenhower, or George Bush either. It's all manner of liberals who have worked for 50 years to do the convincing, and whether you call them communists, fascists, socialists, oligarchists or progressives, they have certainly been consistent in their efforts to rip this country apart. Race baiters, feminists, secular progressives, homosexual activists, Marxists, anti-religious zealots, union thugs and all manner of opportunistic conmen and hustlers have dedicated themselves to fragmenting America's population and exploiting that fragmentation for their own gain, be it financial, political or for pure power.
Funny how all of that aligns so perfectly with the agenda of the Communist Party, isn't it?February 13, 2010 - 10:24 am Link to this Comment | Reply
118. sauropod
In his recent book "How Rome Fell: Death of a Superpower," Adrian Goldsworthy argues that it was the chronic internal instability of the Western Empire that eventually doomed it. In rather tedious detail he outlines every insurrection, rebellion, and civil conflict, showing that emperors increasingly had to focus on their own safety rather than any grand policies. Most of the later emperors ruled for only a few years before being deposed; they had no chance to establish continuity or stability.
Until the US reaches this level of chaos, with rival presidents marshaling units of the armed forces to compete for the White House, I don't think there is much of a parallel between us and Rome.February 13, 2010 - 10:29 am Link to this Comment | Reply
119. Ian Thorpe
Over the years Victor I have read a great deal on many early civilisation and being an Information Technology specialist I am not constrained by the mainstream view as an academic would be.
It seems to me the historians make the same mistake the climate change scientists di in only looking at one possible cause of the problems. There were many factors contributing the decline of the Weestern Empire. One was certainly Christianity and bear in mind the Christians of the fifth century would not have recognized what is practices today as anything to do with their religion.
The Church suppressed scientific and technological advances, declared the medicine of the Greeks and Jews "heretic", rejected the metallurgy of the Celts as magical and therefore ungodly (which handed a technological advantage to Rome's enemies) and tightly controlled literature. Then there was a breakdown in personal and community value systems and an immersion in the cult of self. The ruling class abandoned marriage in favour of homosexuality and relationships with slaves or prostitutes.
While all this was going on the bureaucracy and the merchant class, the backbone of the Empire were becoming alienated from the central authority and seeking greater autonomy in the provinces.
The Eastern Empire did not suffer from any of these things.
It is wrong however to asssume the Empire disintegrated in the space of a few decades. It merely changed into something else. As Rome's military power declined Charlemange, successor to the Merovingian dynasty was laying the foundations of the Holy Roman Empire which was an alliance between military might and Ecclesiastical poltics and scholarship that flourished into the late Medieval period.
When loked at from that perspoective the parallels between Rome's Western Empire and the decline of the west are even more striking. Elitist irresponsibility (try explaining noblesse oblige to a hedge fund manager) Dumbing down, community atrophy, it's all there.February 13, 2010 - 10:50 am Link to this Comment | Reply
120. Josh
I buy the parallel, but question the focus.
Of the three possible futures – all of the above.
Of the *cause*, my question is, WHY was there a decrease in small farmholds? As my question is today, WHY do we have a jobs problem? (as a computer programmer, I've seen my wages fall by 75% over the past thirty years, adjusted for inflation). I guess the answer in Roman days was taxes, plus immigration. As today it is taxes (eg, globalization chases the jobs offshore), plus immigration (of the H-1B variety). Students today avoid studying science and engineering, as it doesn't pay. And today, this was no accident – academia wanted the foreign students, and Alan Greenspan wanted to reduce the price of US labor (more for social than economic reasons, as I understand it).
This is a rather more mundane version of the idea that some moral or ethical spark was lost.February 13, 2010 - 11:46 am Link to this Comment | Reply
121. Noesis Noeseos
It was sad enough when Europe, with its venerable traditions of craftsmanship, dissolved in the slough of socialism, but that far too many Americans are willing to trade their liberties for bread and circuses must bring tears to the eyes of all true patriots. The barbarians have breached the gates, for the hearty yeomen no longer man the walls. (unless perhaps Cincinnata Palin might rally them)February 13, 2010 - 11:54 am Link to this Comment | Reply
122. paul_unalaska
Do you realize 60% of the U.S. population gets more in Government benefits than it pays in taxes? That's what lucid thinking people call, 'counterproductive'.
To right the balance, Obama is going to HAVE to raise taxes on most productive people. i.e. Republican, Independent and blue dog Democratic voters. Don't fret, it looks like you're 'safe'.
Lastly, Javelin. Please share your 'plethora' of knowledge of history, the arts and battles throughout history? I mean, 'surely' you know more than Dr. Hanson..
Inquiring minds..February 13, 2010 - 12:06 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
123. Greg Marquez
I think the relative "decline" of the United States economically is just the natural result of changes in competitive advantage. Money, just like water flows down hill. Or to put it the opposite way, hard work flows to where relative wages are greatest. You can try to dam up the water but in the end that costs more than it saves, nothing is free. Mexicans work so hard, (Contrary to much, so called conservative, propaganda that is indeed the case.) because they are moving from a country where they earn $5 per day to a country where they are able to earn $5 dollars per hour, an almost 10 fold increase. I'm pretty sure that if there was some country paying $500 an hour to work in steel mills that there would be no shortage of Americans trying to get those jobs, even if they had to enter that country illegally. So I don't think that the problem is a cultural shift from an ethic of hard work to one of entitlement, it is just a decrease in the relative increase in prosperity one more hour of work will produce.
When Prof. Hanson's ancestors moved to the Central Valley, (about the same time mine moved to the Imperial valley) it was because of the existence of cheap land and water. A farmer had to word extremely hard to take advantage of this situation but the anticipated return, i.e. owning thousands of acres of land, was huge. There aren't too many places like that left in the universe, I would expect there are even less in China and India since they have been civilized for thousands of years not just 3 or 4 hundred.
As a people become wealthy they begin to spend their riches on luxury goods, leisure, environmentalism, welfare, that is after all the point of being wealthy. As our wealth flows to the Chinese or Indians their wealth increases, our dollars become less valuable, their goods become more expensive, until the relative levels of prosperity reach some sort of equilibrium. There will no doubt come a time when cheap toys for MacDonalds happy meals are once again made at factories in the U.S. and then I suppose everyone will think American's have somehow regained their work ethic.
What should the U.S. do? Allow people to be wealthy. Allow people to be rewarded for being pioneers in new lands, whether those lands are virtual or in outer space, or new uses for old assets like shale oil, coal. Allow people to flow to where the relative returns for their labor are greatest by resisting the temptation to steal the wealth these pioneers have discovered and also by refraining from protecting the wealth of the already wealthy and therefore politically powerful, from the competition these pioneers provide.February 13, 2010 - 1:26 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
124. myth buster
101. So if a man should invest a substantial amount of money, say $50,000, and later that year have a major accident or other emergency, and suddenly need to spend that money to redress the matter, he should mortgage his house or max out his credit cards rather than sell the stocks he bought? That's absurd.
120. What are you talking about? If American students are avoiding science and engineering, it's not because it doesn't pay well, but because the educational system has been so degraded that many American high school graduates can't handle science and engineering. The average starting salary for a science/engineering graduate exceeds the average salary of all American workers. How much more money do you have to offer 22-25 year olds to make it worth it to them?February 13, 2010 - 1:38 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
125. abprospera
Neither party has displayed anything like fiscal discipline. I'd argue that the US has essentially never had a balanced budget since the Founding Fathers.
Our appetite for spending always exceeds our willingness to tax.
While its fashionable to carp about the American work ethic its also ludicrous and untrue. The US works more hours than any other industrialized nation. The ethical breach isn't todays kids but the jackdaws that outsource and right size instead of giving their countrymen a good jobs.
Even if we were to stop buying overseas goods and somehow stop outsourcing it won't help. Automation makes it easy to kill jobs for working men, its our substitute for slavery in Rome. No jobs for working people means either a big dole or disaster, pick one. If you doubt me, head down to Home Depot and look at a Self Checkout machine. Thats your future, the fastest race to the smallest number of employees.
And as for the "kids today" yes they are a little over-cosseted but they aren't stupid or lazy. I've worked with them and they work as hard as anyone. What happened is a great many of them (especially Generation X now middle aged) knew they were betrayed and could do nothing to change that . That makes the a but cynical and a bit of a drop out
Its the same attitude we see in Japan's Grass Eaters and we saw in Ancient Rome when men refused to have children. A quiet refusal to support a society that is not supporting them
Its well deserved and wholly justified especially for the the lower social classes.
In essence our elites on the Right (by putting profit too far ahead of nation) and the Left (by trying to create a utopia o n the backs of a working man) are the ones that betrayed us, not the people.February 13, 2010 - 1:46 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
126. David Levavi
I hesitate to discuss the fall of the Roman Empire and its modern parallels with a classicist but the gradual decline of Rome corresponds too neatly to the gradual development of Christian theology, to be dismissed. The division between Caesar and the legions, Helios worshipers confirmed in the traditions of a divine warrior race born of the union of gory Mars and a mortal virgin and the unsettled Christians, hotly arguing the nature of the gentle new Prince of Peace could not be more pronounced. Contempt for the Empire, its martial traditions and its obsession with national defense by the growing and fractious urban Christian masses ensured its demise.
Every time Caesar withdrew troops from police work in the cities for a campaign against the barbarians pressing into the empire from outside, rival Christian bishops would seize the opportunity to rally their followers for bloody street battles to settle critical details of Christian theology. Legions on their way to join Caesar in defense of the Empire were continually diverted to quell Christian rioting in the cities. Toward the end, Caesar was simply unable to properly clench his fist against the encroaching Barbarians.
The only eyewitnesses to the final battle that marks the fall of the Roman Empire–or the horrific scenes in the immediate aftermath–were legions arrived too late to participate for having been diverted by a provincial governor to put down urban unrest. The starving and freezing Goths—reduced by a corrupt Roman governor to selling their children into Roman slavery for food–had left nothing. The legionnaires in their thousands were stripped naked. Caesar was never found.
The Christian disdain of founding principles and their comfortable illusion of immunity from savage enemies outside should be familiar to every modern American. Our Founding Fathers are found wanting. The constitution they authored is need of overhaul. Universal entitlement to health and welfare precede freedom and democracy. American exceptionalism is an arrogant, supremacist myth.
Are universities our modern, secular church? Are university professors our modern secular churchmen? Listen closely and you can hear the obscurantist mummery of the secular priests everywhere. Capitalism is inherently evil. Man is the enemy of nature. Violence never solved anything…February 13, 2010 - 2:04 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
127. Gylippus
Once Augustus concentrated all power into the hands of a single individual (himself), the citizens largely lost their ability to affect government, and steer their own lives. Rome, as an idea, began to die. It is the ultimate argument against big government. And (as we've been noting here) it is why Obama is doing what he's doing: to break Americans' belief in the future.
But I don't recall a million people marching on imperial Rome to protest the government's bid for autocratic power. I never read about 'town-halls' where concerned free citizens confronted their local magistrates' intrusions into their lives, and halting them in their tracks. It will likely get worse before it gets better. But Americans have shown (in the polls and on the streets) that they have learned something from history; and are not prepared to give up their freedom quite yet.February 13, 2010 - 2:28 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
128. Les
The real problem is NO Morals with the modern day "elite". They no longer do anything(bankers) but collect 100′s of millions of dollars for creating nothing, just more crony manipulative capitalism. The middle class get squeezed because they are not connected to the political elite group like the wealthy are, but they still think they can make it, as a few still manage to do by becoming connected through some common thing with some well connected person like common religion. Everything costs a higher percentage of the true "mean" income, but we are protected from our own stupidity better now. "Average" income is meaningless because some make so much money as they skew the income curve.
Far from being color or gender conscious we are more conscious of these differences and now punish those who are white and male for past transgression, so we now have a different disenfranchised group. Multiculturalism isn't good either, if it was, why do some people come here instead of staying in the ancestral homes, because their culture isn't as good as this one was once and we give them advantage because they are a different "group" by color or gender, even though they were never discriminated against here, they weren't even here when there was a problem! Certainly we shouldn't have ANY DISCRIMINATION, then we will become great again. People used to come here for freedom, now it's almost purely economic. Not everyone can be a great person, but we can all be good citizens.
I could go on for a very long time with specifics, but people don't want to hear the truth, they get angry and try to shout you down and belittle you.February 13, 2010 - 3:13 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
129. Josh
As to why the Eastern Empire survived, my knowledge is small. Perhaps being much larger in area and perhaps including many poorer areas the taxes were not as onerous, the migration of immigrants less intense?
Certainly the Eastern Empire did not maintain the early martial virtues and march out to conquer, quite the opposite. So it is hard for me to see it as maintained virtue.
Then again, speculating wildly, is it possible that Christianity was a preserving force in the East, adopted earlier, providing new structure to replace the old, such that the old empire actually did fall, to all intents and purpose, but it had a more convincing ghost?February 13, 2010 - 3:20 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
130. Scribble, scribble...
Its piety may be a bit much, but the film The Robe had good lines:
Emperor Tiberius: When it comes, this is how it will start. Some obscure martyr in some forgotten province, then madness. Infecting the legions, rocking the empire, then the finish of Rome.February 13, 2010 - 3:53 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
131. Poor Citizen
Rome was ruined not because it went liberal, but because it stayed too conservative and small minded. Remember that.
When you refuse medical care and other basic human rights to your citizens, and allow the rich to make their own rules… then eventually, people get angry. It.s called thinking… its eventually down to poor citizens, with nothing else to lose that change things.February 13, 2010 - 3:54 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
132. John S
It is good that you address personal largess as well as that of government; much of America's present predicament has resulted from a culture of indebtedness, which frankly was only partially influenced by government action, and moreso by a sort of comfort in all the economic-indicator graphs increasing exponentially (and unsustainably).
Like you say, it will be out of necessity, not choice, that the reality of a later retirement age, and decreased or eliminated entitlements come about. It was foolish to ever think that everything–from dot coms to housing prices–would increase ad infinitem. Regardless, government action today can only serve to exacerbate this. Thankfully, some are realizing that they can actually sacrifice their debt-financed "standard of living" i.e. limitless materialism and weak-minded and weak-bodied conveniences, for the sake of future generations.February 13, 2010 - 4:24 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
133. CoolCzech
Sorry, but comparisons of yet another bust in America's perpetual Boom & Bust economic history to the Fall of Rome are lame.
There's a lot of truth to the idea that the Romans gradually became soft, had lower birthrates, and eventually were supplanted by more dynamic races. But it took half a millennium
There are people still alive today that can fought in WW2.
We'll recover from this and come back stronger than ever, same as we always did. It's just telling that talk of American decline always starts as soon as a Democrat Liberal is elected President.
Gee, I wonder why that would be…February 13, 2010 - 5:10 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
134. Mike G
I Agree with # 122. This is the problem. Everyone does their own calculus and 60% or more decide that they are making out better as the role of government grows and grows. They are joined by the very wealthy who's wealth is insulated by tax laws where the most punishing rates apply only to money earned by your own work – not so much by your wealth. Businesses, in the end, just pass higher taxes on to consumers and those on the dole and in government unions are insulated from the resulting rise in prices by cost of living adjustments.
It is the hardworking middle class that is under attack here and because of the above there is no way we can be properly represented with respect to taxation (sound familiar). I have hope for the Tea Party Movement but I think it is going to take some form of civil disobedience for this to change.February 13, 2010 - 6:58 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
135. Rosinante
"Adrian Goldsworthy argues that it was the chronic internal instability of the Western Empire that eventually doomed it."
He is wrong.
Do a simple thought experiment. If Rome had no internal instability, would it still have fallen?
I argue that it would. Rome was built on the shield wall and discipline of it's Legions. It was by far the most efficient military of it's day. In that era, the horse was used as transport more then a weapon (weapons system as we would call it today).
Cavalry operated more as what later would come to be called dragoons. Ride to the battlefield then get off and fight as infantry.
Mounted charges were only effective against an already broken enemy. It was rare when a Legion broke. Historic even.
Then came the stirrup. Now a man and his horse could become as one. No longer did a cavalryman have to hold on, guide his horse and try to use a weapon at the same time.
Now Cavalryman could use his legs to transfer the size and strength of his horse into his weapons.
The dominance of heavy infantry died at Adrianople. The Empire built on that dominance died also.
Now let's flip our thought experiment. No Stirrups to allow Cavalry to displace Heavy Infantry as ruler of the battlefield.
Rome is just as caught up in internal instability as it always was. Note that Goldsworthy uses the word 'cronic'. So there was nothing new about any of the internal problems that Rome had. It had always survived those internal problems before. What was different this time?
Mounted Warriors that could use their speed to choose when to give battle and the power of their horses to win battles.
I agree with Sir Charles Omen.
A Legion could fight off the typical horseman of the day. The Stirrup made that typical horseman Cavalry, which is a whole different thing.
Rome fell because they didn't keep up with military technology. They canceled the 4th century version of the F-22.February 13, 2010 - 7:58 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
136. Ruebacca
I loved the last paragraph.
I think we can renew ourselves and kick the debt habit. The race fixation we have as a nation has seen it's high point with Obama. Our elites have failed us because they are trained in socialist ideology, but the American people think in the old Anglo-Saxon mentality.February 13, 2010 - 8:54 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
137. archer52
I wanted to share this with all of you. It fits in the subject of declining nations and nations who find their voice. This is from my website.
As some of you know and hopefully been following, I've been reading and blogging about Mao and the Great Cultural Revolution. In my latest post I'm covering the defrosting of China as Mao begins to lose control. What grabbed me the most was how quickly the Chinese, victims of thousands of years of a closed society, punished by a mad revolutionary, afraid of even daring to think or challenge, absolutely exploded towards the door of free will and free thought. It re-enforces my belief that free will is a gift from God that cannot be denied. Here is my post I think it has a place here along with the discussion of the founding of our nation. Why? Because the people who founded this great nation also recognized the God given right to live free, think free, and have free will to chose.
As you read, ask yourself if any of this sounds familiar.
Another story about Mao and his last betrayals. The death of Lin Biao
Posted February 14th, 2010 by admin
Near the end of Mao's control of China several things began to occur. First, many of the leaders who had gained power with him and survived the many purges the Cultural Revolution created began to die off. Second, Mao began to lose control of the message. As much as people felt he was a deity in many respects, his actions and the resulting chaos of the Revolution left many doubting his omnipotence. One of those who realized Mao was losing it was his trusted associate Lin Biao. For a time, for a long time Biao was considered a favorite to replace Mao. However, as many tyrants do, Mao changed his mind. Biao sensed he was in trouble, even though he followed every order, every thought, every desire of his Chairman. Lin's son also lost faith in the Chairman and may have plotted to assassinate Mao. In any event, a once trusted associate and his family attempted to flee China to the USSR. Their plane was either shot down or crashed, killing them all.
The book indicates that Mao never recovered from the loss of his friend and the doubt it created in the minds of the people. Here is an example of the doubt.
"Today he uses this force to attack that force; tomorrow he uses that force to attack this force. Today he uses sweet words and honeyed talk to those whom he entices, and tomorrow he puts them to death for some fabricated crimes. Those who are his guests today will be his prisoners tomorrow."
Well, that about summed up the last six years of chaotic, murderous history of Mao's China. More and more public displays of revolt began to surface. Small groups of citizens began to meet, to challenge, to question. Some were open to the point of being identified and arrested and executed, but others managed to disseminate new ideas challenging Mao as the final word on all things.
More and more of the old established members either died or became so ill they could no longer hold power. Mao became a recluse. (Which is ironic. His favored USSR leader, Stalin, also became a recluse and in the end died in his own waste, a victim of a stroke if I remember correctly.)
At this point in the history of China a strange thing occurred. People began to realize they had been screwed and free thought (something almost unheard of in China) began to surface as people rewrote the concept of Communism in China. You have to remember as America courted China, the influence of the West began to creep into the conversations of everyday citizens. Even some leaders challenged the closed nature of China and allowed books that were once forbidden to be printed and read. Simple books we take for granted exploded in the minds of students and others in China. Books like Count of Monte Cristo and Catcher in the Rye. Once the door was opened it could never be closed again. After forty years of a closed society, dominated by a mad revolutionary, the first chance the people had they ran for freedom.
This is a lesson we should always, ALWAYS remember. People long to be free, in spirit, in thought, in life. It is the God in us. It is what separates us from animals. It is what powers our souls.
Obama can command. Congress can dictate. The courts can order. But WE are free willed people who only give them power over us by choice. And it is our choice to take that power back.February 13, 2010 - 9:29 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
138. Anonymous
What does all that have to do with Rome or decline? My father told me that when he was growing up in the 30s and 40s, professorial crackpots like Hanson were doom and glooming him and his mates with the same old Fall of Rome scenario. All Hanson is doing is recycling stale old dreck. You must be massively ignorant to imagine this Fall of Rome scenario is original or well thought out.
Also, like sauropod said, the Western Empire fell from too many revolts and coups. Who is doing the most talk about seccessionism these days?
Finally, you smug little twit, I earn my money and get no benefits at all from anyone, as well as there are plenty of rich Democrats who pay beaucoup taxes too. This isn't Rush's show so you won't get away with cheap jibes and non sequiters here.February 13, 2010 - 9:37 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
139. Javelin
What does your remarks have to do with Hanson's utterly unoriginal Fall of Rome scenario? They were laying the same crap on my father and grandfather 8 decades ago. If the US falls, it is not going to be because of your dubious cooked up statistic.
What is your concept of a productive person? Some swindler, corporate tool, trust fund baby, ambulance chaser lawyer, over paid actor-singer-jock? There are plenty of productive people who aren't right wing Palin admiring know nothings like you. What about those people who are too old and sick to work, they are making us fall? We should just cut them out. good call! Also, you smug little twit, I resent your ugly little crack, I don't collect any benefits and work too, jerkov. Though that is what I should expect from the usual thoughtless fans here.February 13, 2010 - 9:48 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
140. Kipling
Response to Ian Thorpe @ 119: I have to take issue with the blame you place on "the church." Your argument has several flaws.
First, there is no such thing as "the church." Although the western church did slowly come under the domination of the Bishop at Rome, the eastern church (Byzantium) never acknowledged its authority and the two often differed. Even in the west, the Bishop at Rome did not grow to dominate the church until the Roman Empire was well on its way to decline. Even then "the church" was often divided and did not speak with one voice.
Second, "the church" did not suppress scientific and technological advances. This is a myth of liberal secular acadamia. The church did not gain political clout until the 300s with Constantine. By that time, the decline of Rome was clearly evident as it was Constantine himself who moved the capital to Byzantium (Constantinople). Even if some popes and bishops did so at times, other factions in "the church" supported such advancements. A lot of Greek thought was simply lost to the ancient world with the fall of Rome and the barbarian invasions. It was not restored, ironically, to the fall of Byzantium.
Third, how is the church powerful enough to suppress intellectual development but not homosexuality and prostitution?
I agreed with much of what you said but had to take issue with the characterization of "the church."February 13, 2010 - 9:51 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
141. Javelin
good call, and who is making the all the seccessionist noises these days?February 13, 2010 - 9:53 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
142. Kipling
Response to sauropod @118: "Chronic internal instability" may not take the same form as it did in the Roman Empire because the governmental systems are different. The Founders wisely created a system that allows a potential revolution every 2 to 4 years in the form of elections.
With that said, I would argue that we have considerable internal stability.
Frist, the federal government has increasingly become an oligarchy and grown out of touch with reality outside the beltway. One only has to look at the agenda pushed by the D.C. bureaucrats and its lack of signficant support amoung the general population to see that is true.
Second, the growing political rebellion amoung the states who have grown weary of federal mandates.
Third, the failure of the federal govenrment do deal realistically with problems like western wild fires, border security, property rights, etc.
Fourth, the total desire of politicians to remain in power rather than solve the problems.
A lot of that sounds like what you mentioned.February 13, 2010 - 10:02 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
143. hwillard
I've feared the fall of American ideals when I read about the importance of wheat which was given to Roman citizens in the capital by the government, basically a free handout of food. The people would riot if the Egyptian shipments were late or lost because of storms, but they would do nothing to materially support themselves.
The food stamps program and government-supported food banks are basically a parallel to those citizens with their hands out expecting the government to provide.February 13, 2010 - 10:21 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
144. Horace Wells
Noesis Noeseos
What are you babbeling about? Can you at least try to stay on topic, not throw some Palindronic remarks in?February 13, 2010 - 10:28 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
145. SomewhereInNJ
Would the current situation not match more to the time of the end of the roman republic?
A vanishing middle class and a stalemated legislative come to mind here.
PS: The Romans allowed torture as a legal instrument of investigation and truth finding.February 13, 2010 - 10:48 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
146. Frumious Falafel
While I have an MS in Computer Science, I studied History as much as I possibly could throughout my higher educational "career." For what it's worth, I am a very minor "pseudo-historian." Having said that, I consider myself a "technologist" within History. So for example (provocatively) I'd say the invention of the Washing Machine did more for the advancement of "Women rights" than any other single factor as it allowed them time(!) — time to read and educate themselves and congregate, etc.
That being said, allow me to briefly relate a happening when I was in grad school at Illinois Urbana-Champaign. I developed on my own during the first Spring Break (to make up a grade in a class I had done dismally in b/c I was making weekly trips to OSU to convince a girl to… well you get the picture). In any case I developed a small software system in 1990 (pre-"the World Wide Web and Mosaic") which I named "Hyper-Man" — you can Google it but since I was a graduate student, my name, alas, is not associated with it and thus you'll have to take my word for it.
It turns out it was an spectacular success (much to my surprise — when the Professor and his group first saw it they went ballistic with joy). It was, plainly, the "first browser" ever developed — although it should be quickly added that it was HIGHLY constrained to the domain known as the Unix manual system (NOT the "World Wide Web" or the "Internet").
Nevertheless, this alone was so useful to other developers that within months, literally (and I do not exaggerate) *every* major University and Company in the world had a multiple copies and were using it daily (it was distributed freely). Of course I was interested in theoretical issues and thus didn't look at it as a business opportunity — yes, I know, I'm an idiot.
In any case, I soon left Hyper-Man to continue my graduate studies, but given that literally thousands, and possible tens of thousands of copies were installed at every highly famous institution, my professor (who of course kept my name out of it completely — thus is the plight of the grad student :-) brought in a young Freshman or Sophomore undergrad into our group: the "Human-Computer Interaction Group." His name as it turns out was Marc Andreesen.
For those of you who do not recognize his name, Marc, over the next two years after Hyper-Man developed "THE" first "real" browser that worked on what we all now call the "World Wide Web" (originally developed by Swiss Physicists at CERN to share documents). I was aware of what Marc was doing as his office was near my girlfriend's in NCSA in the basement and further, he was in my HCI group maintaining "my" software, Hyper-Man — bug fixing, adding functionality, etc.
In fact I even remember introducing him to classical music — making fun a little of his very white and slightly pudgy faced appearance having just come down from a "nowhere" small town in Wisconsin. Nevertheless I was impressed by his interest in classical music and we had a few conversations and that was it.
Much later, I asked my professor, after Marc had developed "Mosaic" which he later parlayed into "Netscape" whether it was a fair supposition whether Marc may have been perhaps inspired somewhat by my own Hyper-Man. The reason I asked was because the user interfaces of the two were eerily similar (back and forward buttons — but far more importantly, my software dynamically searched for and detected Unix commands in the "SEE ALSO" section which is at the bottom of every Unix manual page and drew (via its own internal intelligence) colored underlines which a user could click and be "magically" propelled to *that* manual page (which described the underlined command; he could then "go back" with a click as well). Again, these were known as the Unix "Man Pages", hence the name "Hyper-man" since the system was based on a hyper-text structure as is, in fact, the modern day browser; also, to start the Unix manual system on the command line, one types the command "man"). To get to my professors opinion, he felt it was a reasonable assumption that Marc may have indeed been inspired by "Hyper-Man" especially given his intimate relationship with it. Unfortunately Marc did not reply to an email I sent his recently — but he may easily not have seen it, or he may simply disagree with my speculation. I certainly do not begrudge him for anything since first developing Mosaic and the Netscape required an immense amount of work.
It took me a little while to get over kicking myself. but eventually I did since I realized my own limitations at business and that ends the portion of the story that involves me personally.
Finally to my point as it related to Professor Hanson's article (a man who I admire greatly, by the way). I think *if* a Classics Historian such as Mr Hanson doesn't have a serious grounding in the basis of hard science and technology (that springs forth from hard science), my following opinion may seem … perhaps wishful thinking (and maybe it is!). I should also mention to bolster my own credentials somewhat that I grew up with a Physics professor father and studied Physics at UC Berkeley for 3 years before switching to theoretical CS.
So what's my point? My point is that one guy, with the possible minuscule involvement of myself (but that's of little-to-no consequence)… one guy: Marc Andressen developed a piece of software that practically overnight created untold wealth in this country for the next two decades and is STILL developing wealth in the most rapid and unpredictable ways.
When one is involved in a half "hard-science / half-Technology" field like Computer Science, one sees (as I saw first-hand) the potential for developments like the one Marc produced are limitless! There are simply NO obstructions in the development of "seemingly small" software advancements that a year later will produce YET ANOTHER 2 decades, or even more of untold GDP creation int this country. And that type of phenomena really only occurs in this county.
Now I'm not *even* touching on the bio-sciences about which I know next to nothing, but I do know people who are heavily involved in it and talk about it as being where Computer Science was in the 1970′s / 1980′s. Ok, great!
But back to CS, a subject I do know something about, the speed of development of *just* software languages alone is blinding! It is not merely "fast" — as in it has a fast but constant velocity. It is accelerating! Now just think about driving your car and the difference between driving at a fast speed, and driving at that speed and then faster and faster and faster each second! That is where CS Software system (and database) development is today! This is nothing short of an unpredictable bonanza of riches.
So to wrap this long post up, there will be, as SURE as the sun rises(!), another, and another and another "World Wide Web" development emanating from the USA probably every 5 years now. This is not fantasy. This is the considered opinion (which of course you are free to disagree with!) of someone who has been intimately involved in many aspects of both software development, Interface development, database development, and finally, also, the technology end. The phenomenal reduction in memory prices versus the phenomenal INCREASE of that same memory's capacity is mind boggling. It's like buying a Honda this year. Then next year, for half the money, getting a BMW. Then the next year for a quarter of the money getting a Ferrari. It's truly crazy! If those two curves (cost vs capacity or quality) were plotted in any other field, people's heads would be spinning!
So, while *everything* Professor Hanson says is absolutely true, and possibly his argument can defeat even the stellar growths in wealth I predict will occur in this country in the near future, I would merely like to point out that the basis of computers and bio science that we are all living in today make this a *completely* different world, almost incomparable to any similar development of technology in the Roman era over a full 1000 years. In other words 100 years today in technological (scientific) development completely blows away 1,000 years in any similar development in the Roman era. This is something that *must* be taken into account when thinking about the degradation of so many of our social structures.
Wealth WILL continue to be created in the USA.
I will stop now (the comment crow applauds wildly! ;-)February 13, 2010 - 11:20 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
147. Sulla
In the State of Union Address, POTUS mentioned the poison that kills all societies. Growing up in the Central Coast of California, I never heard the phrase until I overheard a college classmate from Chicago use it 40 years ago: "What's in it for me?". POTUS said that "the longer it [the health bill] was debated, the more skeptical people became … . And … with all the lobbying and horsetrading, the process left most Americans wondering, 'What's in it for me?' "—— I had never hear a President suggest that public opinion was solely motivated by cynical self interest. I think instead he projected his, and his Cook County crowd's, own view of public affairs—- cynical, myopic, self-interest. (Note at this point the strongest argument to pass the health bill is that the Democrats will suffer a worse fate in November if nothing is done).
As for the Roman Empire, both East and West, when the political class adopted cynical view of government, those that were governed followed suit. When faced with Barbarians in the West and Islam in the East, local populations refused to rally to the Imperial standards because they could not see an immediate benefit to resist invasion.February 13, 2010 - 11:25 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
148. Laurent
I would agree with Ben Grivno: the US is not Rome, due to our decentralized government, economy and access to information. As for our unfortunate Canadian neighbors, they suffer from the abuse of power inherent in a parliamentary system. Our system of checks and balances and our federal structure serve to limit the damage of idiotic collectivism. My home state of NY, and California, may go bankrupt, but that leaves 48 other states to learn from NY and CA's folly. At the federal level, Scott Brown's election was but the first rumble of the coming avalanche. Unlike in Rome, in the US power and information flow from the bottom up, not from the top down. Moi, je reste optimiste.February 13, 2010 - 11:38 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
149. mac
Don't forget that milestone of our deterioration, the 1965 Immigration Reform Act, championed by the sainted RFK and his brother, the late unlamented murderer of Mary Jo Kopechne. Read the Senate records on what Bobby and Teddy had to say about this Act. To say they were blatantly lying is to be guilty of major understatement. I would have voted to have them both shot for treason and been honored to be on the firing squad.
Despite what Massachusetts did both in the 1770′s and with Scott Brown, given the long list of damages done to us by the Kennedys, Shrivers, Kerrys, Bulgers, Franks, Studds, etc., they're definitely on balance in net deficit for general contribution to the national welfare.
No wonder Larry Bird despised the city of Boston!February 13, 2010 - 11:43 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
150. David Sheedy
JK@110, Toronto Girl, Quebec Man, great to read the straight goods from fellow hosers (JK, you're now part of the great white north ..;-) .. Great, eh!?).
All of what's been said on these posts, I can attest to as accurate.
Let's all hope that the UK June election kicks the shameless dork Brown out on his regal rear end, and we can all take the cue that there is a shift to the rational and sensible centre occurring – beyond, and at home.
November in the U.S. will hopefully result in the containment of big ears BHO, and that much the same happens in Canada.
JK, it's so far gone here, the standards have shifted lower, and the resignation is so rampant, that people are unable to make the distinction for what's acceptable – from trash lids to medical advice and throughout the continuum.February 14, 2010 - 2:23 am Link to this Comment | Reply
151. David Sheedy
If there can be hope, some very wise investors see positive GDP growth, jobless rate in the 8′s, and muted activity, but steady and on the up.
Results – get back to hard work, or your toast (healthy IMO); public revenues recover; greater confidence seasoned with a dash of fear that if the stupidity is allowed to continue, there's a very stark alternative to being employed and having an income.
Politically, the shift to the sensible and rational has been spurred by the clear and present economic realities of the past 18 – 24 months, and policies to fuel that negative result, that most are rejecting.
Economically, innovation is the wild card. If one believes that the desire to create solutions to better fit demand and generate a competitive advantage is diminished or gone, pack up the canned goods and water, buy some protection and firearms and head for the hills.
Innovation will occur, and is happening and there will be recovery and many say we're there now. But, it won't happen soon enough, or be apparent enough by November to save the current administrations agenda.
At least that's that's the course of events in my prayers.February 14, 2010 - 2:45 am Link to this Comment | Reply
152. Jeff R
I wouldn't write the United States' epitaph just yet. Many Americans still possess the traits, principles and values that made the nation great.
During the last year, we've witnessed the growing counter to Barack Obama's and the left's dramatic efforts to remake the nation more fully on the order of statist Europe. We may – just may – be seeing a backlash of historic importance.
As Professor Hanson states, decline is a choice. We may well be at one of those unique junctures in the life of a nation when the people must make momentous choices.
I would argue that more and more Americans are awakening to the need of a rebirth of freedom – not the "positive" freedom (i.e., statist entitlement) of the left, but the freedom given to us by the Founders.
What is needed are conservatives who are unafraid to present their fellow Americans with the choice at hand: reclaim lost freedom or increasingly suffer the consequences of having compromised liberty for the illusion of government-controlled security.
I'm betting on the decency and faith and love of freedom that many, many Americans possess and who, with the right leadership, would move away from the corruption that the left has perpetrated.February 14, 2010 - 8:36 am Link to this Comment | Reply
153. Merlin12
@ post 9: Rome WASN'T a slave society until the wars began to bring back large numbers of conquered peoples to BE slaves. This displaced a lot of otherwise productive Romans, (especially returning soldiers) who then began to demand that the State take care of them with what was essentially a welfare program.February 14, 2010 - 8:44 am Link to this Comment | Reply
154. Alana
"So I will put my money on Scenario 2."
I do, too, Vandenberge.
And thank you, Dr. Hanson, for teaching me. Sounds simple, but I mean it. Very good food for thought, offered by someone who knows.
Let me also take this time to thank the other commentors, who teach me as well. This site, particularly Dr. Hanson, and its thoughtful and eloquent participants, gives me pleasure where little else in the news does.
At least I've got fine intellectual company here to go through it all with!February 14, 2010 - 8:57 am Link to this Comment | Reply
155. crk
#48 re "solutions".
What a quaint idea – letting states rise or fall by virtue of their own choices. No bailouts. Sadly we no longer reside in a country of states assuming responsibility. We are now a bail-out nation with the few paying for the many. We will all be bailing out California. We are where we are due to our politicians doing anything and everything possible to be re elected at the expense of liberty. IDEA: If they hold office – vote them out! Every time! Put an end to career deadbeats sucking the life out of the productive to redistribute to themselves and the rest of the unproductive. Obama has no reason to exist but for extracting money and creating debt as a means of enslaving generations of Americans. His personal mission.February 14, 2010 - 9:55 am Link to this Comment | Reply
156. Horace Wells
glad to see you are at it again posting your uusal thoughtless trash, with a zing on the gays too. Guess what, moving those factories overseas is part of the whole internationalization of manufacture, yet you imply in your ugly little way that the US youths are doing nothing. Great, let's reduce us all to the grinding poverty of average rural China (mostly still is) so we can have a willing pool of sweatshop workers.February 14, 2010 - 12:05 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
157. Eowyn
21. SonjaP:
We are not Rome; we were never supposed to be Rome. I'm sick of Rome.
Those who refuse to learn the lessons of history …February 14, 2010 - 1:57 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
158. Jack Okie
17th Amendment:
Entitlements, deficits and the other ills plaguing us are symptoms of a deeper problem: The 17th Amendment destroyed a critical balance in the system of government designed by the Founders. For example, most of the money handed out in the Cornhusker Kickback and the Louisiana Purchase belongs to the 50 state legislatures. Had the senators been sent by their respective legislatures, few would have had the temerity to be so profligate with their sponsors' money; instead they are loose cannons who often work against their states' actual interests.
As far as Social Security and Medicare being entitlements: When I have received the amount I paid in, then anything afterward is an entitlement. Remember that none of us have any choice in participating – the money is collected at gunpoint. I would be thrilled to receive the balance remaining as a lump sum and forgo any further involvement with either program.February 14, 2010 - 2:23 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
159. Delia
It has recently been proven that lack of money doesn't increase crime so maybe now it's high time we cut off the teat suckers? Why is this made out to be such an insurmountable task? Oh yeah, the Left/Dem vote base would be decimated. In other words, let's destroy this country because of politics.
I'm ready to march.February 14, 2010 - 3:10 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
160. Eric
Philosophical and practical, this primer on Rome's fall and our current choices deserves to be widely read and reread. I'm still reflecting on your historical insights and wondering if there isn't another unlisted, worse fourth possibility.
Thank you for sharing your deep knowledge.February 14, 2010 - 6:01 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
161. bill
mikemcdaniel –
And who would you entrust to the White House in 2012? The Obama ( The Liar?) administration has merely positioned itself as yet the next in line of several administrations to promote globalism and the virtues of an ownership society. What politician doesn't promise the voters the moon only to turn around and do the exact opposite of what they campaigned on? Ayn Rand and Alan Greenspan live on in this administration. We are saving the financiers now, not average Americans. Nothing has changed. I would happily vote for any politician who I thought was telling the truth. A politician who was willing to tell it like it really is. The more we put off the pain the worse it is going to get.
"We are entitled, and as the entitled, we have no obligation to defend our way of life, indeed, even to lift our fingers to vote to maintain it."
Those Obama T-shirt wearing youth did go out and vote but the American people but aren't getting what they voted for. Just what is "our way of life" anymore? A 39% increase in health insurance premiums if you can afford them at all, credit card rates once considered usury, more war, declining property values, trashed retirement programs of all flavors and a rapidly imploding job market? Maybe none of this affects you but many people are suffering.
You complain about High Speed Rail, but you say nothing about the 180 billion dollar bail out AIG received. 180 BILLION dollars for one company!!! You complain about stimulus, how many jobs did that AIG bailout create? You don't call that socialism? Obama is a socialist alright, especially if you are a banker in need of a bailout and a big fat bonus.February 14, 2010 - 7:54 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
162. Carl Sesar
Rome wasn't built in a day, and Rome didn't fall in a day, either.
Yet in one short year, this president has brought to the brink of destruction a polity that took centuries to build and nurture. Many here think it's all over already. I don't think so, but we'd better stop him cold right now, or we're sunk.
He must be made to release all personal records he is hiding from public scrutiny, birth certificate and all. VDH says to question that document is infantile, even unhinged, and I have to say in response that it's VDH who's infantile, even unhinged. Or plain stupid.
And that goes for all who think as he does.February 14, 2010 - 11:12 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
163. Don
Yeah, those Romans were great. I can see why we would compare modern civilization to them. The only real chance for America is for us all to retake the 13 states and start a model Roman empire. Thats the ticket. There is an other Kingdom though where all are welcome, but the poor are invited as well so many wouldn't like it there. :: ))February 15, 2010 - 3:00 am Link to this Comment | Reply
164. Gavrik
pual_unalaska wrote: "To right the balance, Obama is going to HAVE to raise taxes on most productive people."
This is true, and although I will probably be tiresome and cliche in doing so, I mention again that the future will probably be a mixture of "Atlas Shrugged" and "Idiocracy."
Perhaps my problem is that I've not learned to relax and stop worrying about it.February 15, 2010 - 6:46 am Link to this Comment | Reply
Wow – I didn't even have to read a ten-thousand page book to understand how directly our experience could echo Rome's fall!
Thanks, professor!February 15, 2010 - 12:54 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
166. Tom
It seems to me as simple as this: We have voted ourselves the treasury. I feel fortunate to have been born in 1936. I may have to watch the decline, but I may be spared the experience of witnessing the fall.February 15, 2010 - 1:47 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
167. Danny Boy
I am now 69 and it seems to me that the American attitude during my lifetime has always been that "someway, somehow, everything will majically turn out okay." Well, this time I have a very strong fear that everything just may not turn out okay. This time our illustrious leaders, from both major political parties, have sold us down the river and the rapids will soon become waterfalls that will destroy the "ship of state." If major entitlements comprising more than half of the US budget cannot be reduced significantly, including Social Security and Medicare, then there will be no recovery from the economic abyss into which this nation is now rapidly dropping into. I don't know the solution, but we are in dire need of leaders who are willing to risk their political careers so that our nation can survive. Sadly, I do not where such people now exist.February 15, 2010 - 2:02 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
168. Iscariot
Fall of Empire by 210 (or more) cuts? The focus here has been on the soft center, but the external forces pressuring it had pressures on them. Time to say good-bye…February 15, 2010 - 7:45 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
169. Kipling
Response to David Levavi @126: Please provide the source information for your fantasy view of the past. Have you been reading Dan Brown? Entitlements are the beginning of slavery and bondage not freedom.
Response to Poor Citizen @131: What makes access to medical care a human right? When did that happen and by whose authority? FYI, by law no one can be denied medical treatment.February 15, 2010 - 10:26 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
170. ManekiNeko
One wonders if Turner's Frontier Thesis doesn't apply to the Roman
Empire to some extent, an empire built on expanding boundaries and the importation of wealth via conquest, taxation of new territories, and cheap labor in the form of slaves.
That steady supply of cheap labor fundamentally changed the economy to the detriment of poorer citizens and freedmen, eventually resulting in an underclass dependent on the dole. Entering the Legions or going to the frontiers as a merchant would be the same sort of escape valve that Turner talked about.February 15, 2010 - 11:18 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
171. Mrac Malone
You've all missed the truth. The Republic has already fallen! The barbarians reside in the Capital. They are Imperialists. They loll on the furniture and host regular parties (2/wk). The Federal government has become all-powerful. The States are subordinate; merest Provincia. Federal Mandates override the states' powers.
The barbarians are sacking the Capital, most capitals of the Provincia, and the financial centers. They are not external, these barbarians. They are internal. They are of us.
They are those who have thrown off all Rule of Law and are bent on plunder. They have shed all morality. They no longer even recognize it as having any meaning. When there is no longer a functional standard of ethics or morality, the barbarians become the majority.
Law is subverted. No ethics apply. "Empathy" on the bench means a system of Patronage, enabling true Tyranny.
There is a developing pushback, but the damage will have been done. We are looted. We may again find our morality and ethics, but it will require deep sacrifice to recover. I fear we are beneath such noble sacrifice as shall be required. The lure of Loot is too great. All want their piece of this carcass of America.
The Republic has already fallen. We are now a Tyranny. With powerful neighbors, we are doomed. They shall not defeat us militarily. Nay, they shall beat us economically and culturally. They already are beating us, because we are immoral; barbarians. We shall struggle a bit longer, but these are merely the death throes of a strangling man.
Clinton was the last President. He was netralized by a sronger Congress. It was a brief, final flirt with freedom. Bush was the first of the Caesars. He was Julius. Military Empire was his. Obama is his nephew, Octavius, become Augustus. There will be other Tyrants, some good and some bad, but we are now Imperial, and the Oligarchs rule a growing Kleptocracy.
The Republic is dead. Requiem.February 16, 2010 - 12:25 am Link to this Comment | Reply
172. myth buster
126. It was only after the rise of Constantine that Christians even had reason to care about the Empire. Prior to 325, conquest by barbarians meant, at worst, exchanging one brutal regime for another, and at best, a new group of people to evangelize and add to their ranks. When the government has been slaughtering your family members, you will rejoice in its fall, see Iraq, Afghanistan, and the entire Eastern block for illustrations.February 16, 2010 - 8:42 am Link to this Comment | Reply
173. Morrisminor
Yes, let's form a new Roman Republic in the original thirteen colonies. Let's have gladiator death fights, give fathers the right to kill their wives and children and bring back slavery, so we can kill and beat slaves with impunity. And you people claim you are Christians and Republicans?
Mrac Malone
Your grasp on history is so weak. The federal government always had ultimate power over the states, you fool. Staes are not sovereign. Can a state mint its own currency, conduct foreign relations or go to war on its own? Can a state bring back slavery? Where have you been sleeping the last 200 years. The only tyranny I see is the one ruling your head.February 16, 2010 - 1:28 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
174. Vader
I believe the root of the problem is the loss of a sense of belonging to what Russell Kirk called the mystical community of souls: those who have passed on, those now living, and those yet to be born. Romans ceased to care about passing along their patrimony to their children, if they bothered much about their children. Social Security and the birth control movement, whatever beneficial effects they may have had, have severed that link for many of us.
As a result, we are in free fall, and the pavement is coming up fast.February 17, 2010 - 11:08 am Link to this Comment | Reply
175. Anonymous
#169 Kipling
"…Please provide the source information for your fantasy view of the past…
When Jesus Became God: The Struggle to Define Christianity during the Last Days of Rome/Richard E. RubinsteinFebruary 17, 2010 - 8:31 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
176. David Levavi
169. Kipling:
"…Response to David Levavi @126: Please provide the source information for your fantasy view of the past. Have you been reading Dan Brown?…"
Happy to oblige, Kip.
When Jesus Became God: The Struggle to Define Christianity during the Last Days of Rome/Richard E. RubensteinFebruary 17, 2010 - 9:51 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
177. Les
well said Mike Mcdaniel! We must not forget that many who earn those 100′s of millions of dollars aren't doing anything worth a damn, they are just stealing from the stockholder. They artificially inflate the price of the stock temporarily so they can collect their incentive stock bonuses. It's crony capitalism run amok. The only real way to stop this is kill the incentive by bringing back the top tax bracket of 70%, but keep it in the very lofty area of over $1-2m/yr indexed for inflation. Maybe give exceptions for those who have served in the US armed forces full time active duty for at least three years in a row. The "Greatest Generation" managed to do wonderful things w/o these obscene bonuses for execs. in any industry, I'm sure our generation of greed can manage as well by NOT allowing the kids to run the candy stores.
I'm a realistic environmentalist. We need to drill on the north shore! It's not the drilling that's the problem it's the transportation and the Alaska pipeline is pretty good. But here we have crony capitalism, due to large sums of money, in this case PAC money. Must have been a politician who thought of allowing anyone to throw money at a politician and assume that politician would still do the "right thing" LOL! From my basic understanding that's BRIBERY!
On the SSI Issue, consider this, within 4 years a current retiree gets everything they ever put into Social Security. When SSI was created the ave. life expectancy was 65 I believe. Like Mike said, we are now paying for hip replacements et. al. We are being taxed to death so state and govt. workers get retirement income and medical coverage for the rest of their long life's, many only need to work 20 years to get very good income. Many states will go broke due to this "Unionization" of govt. workers who have NO COMPETITION !! Thank good ole JFK for that one.
We all think we are owed a grandiose income and fame it seems, look at what people aspire to do now vs the 1930′s? Now they want to be entertainers and just plain rich. Who wants to go through 4 years of hard education to be an engineer just to be paid a paltry sum of $50k? Better to be Harvard educated in business exec. so you can con or bribe board members you are in bed with to line each others pockets while the company fails behind the scenes and off the books… It's far less work.February 18, 2010 - 12:02 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
178. kochevnik
Rome grew to great power as polytheists, with special reverence for Jupiter and Mars. They took over Europe and North Africa. Then they adopted Christianity and it all fell apart.
Constantine put people into power based on whether or not they were Christian instead of on merit.
Christianity, Gibbons says, created a belief that a better life existed after death. This fostered indifference to the present among Roman citizens, thus sapping their desire to sacrifice for the Empire. He also believed its comparative pacifism tended to sap the traditional Roman martial spirit.
According to Gibbon, Romans were far more tolerant of Christians than Christians were of one another, especially once Christianity gained the upper hand. Christians inflicted far greater casualties on other Christians than were ever inflicted by the Roman Empire. Gibbon extrapolated that the number of Christians executed by other Christian factions far exceeded all the Christian martyrs who died during the three centuries of Christianity under Roman rule."
Christianity helped destroy the overall tolerance of the empire. Prior, Rome would tolerate almost any religion and weave it into the overall religious fabric. But when the christians took over they ended this policy, much like Alexander the Great.
Lavish spending within the major cities like Rome caused it to go broke, forced higher taxes and conquering other nations to refill the coffers. This forced troops outside the country, weakening internal defense.
The Christian Revelation unleashes a relentless apocalyptic nightmare, badly written, repetitive and self-contradictory. In chapter after chapter, it details bizarre horrors, the supposed fate that imminently will befall the enemies of the Lord. It is the latter which gives the book its enduring popularity—a vision of the gore–fest at the End of Time.
Revelation is the outpouring of a Jew seriously embittered by Roman imperialism. This fevered Jewish mind invokes retribution for his enemies from that old, vicious god of Hebrew scripture, who rips into humanity with poetic abandon. Thus, in a whole series of 'Ends', God releases seven 'vials of his wrath' (blood, plague, sores, fire, drought, etc.); sets loose four horsemen (at the head of an army of 200 million!) 'for to slay the third part of men' (9.15). He has his 'demonic locusts' torment unbelievers for five months; etc., etc. Kings, captains, false prophets and 'the flesh of all men, both free and bond, both small and great' are eaten by fowls that fly and are cast alive into a lake of 'fire and brimstone.'
If nothing else, the crude, unpolished construction of Revelation, reveals early proto–Christian ideas in the process of forming. The early origin of the book is attested by its doctrinal incompatibility with the rest of the New Testament. The doctrine of the Trinity is nowhere in sight. Rather, Revelation embodies Philo's notion of 'multiple emanations' – the 'seven spirits of God' (3.1, 5.6). Later biblical books will slim this down to a single Holy Spirit. Revelation has no dogma of 'original sin' ; it is idolatry which damns the mass of humanity. Baptism is not mentioned; believing Jews are 'sealed' not baptised. There is no reference to the Eucharist—nothing so genteel as a meal with friends mars the carnage. On the day of judgment it is 'works' (public action) that will count, not the Pauline 'grace through faith. 'Babylon' (the Roman Empire) falls unrepentant and the vast mass of humanity perish. There is no religion of love here but only undiluted hatred and lust for revenge.February 19, 2010 - 12:32 am Link to this Comment | Reply
179. Arraial d Ajuda
Rome wasn't build in one day either…February 19, 2010 - 6:53 am Link to this Comment | Reply
180. mia Cervantes
Those unwilling to learn from history are doomed to repeat it's mistakes.
All non military government workers can take a 30% cut in their compensation package & tighten their belts with the rest of us. Nowadays landing a government job is like hitting the lotto. No performance requirements and no worries for the rest of your life.
Nullify public employee's right to unionize and buy politicians willing to obligate the rest of us to pay for their special favors forever.February 20, 2010 - 2:35 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
Learning the wrong lessons is much more dangerous.April 25, 2011 - 5:58 am Link to this Comment | Reply
181. Randy
This is a very well written and truthful article. We are forced to learn history in school in order for us to learn how others succeeded or failed. Unfortunately, we are slow learners and are bound to repeat the past, totally oblivious to those who failed before us.February 25, 2010 - 2:42 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
182. Cylar
The left-wingers who stop by conservative blogs such as this, continually fascinate me even as they disgust me. My favorites are the ones who try to sound smart, even as they prattle on in ways that a third-grader would chuckle at.
I will never understand why they feel the need to stop by and "educate" those of us who believe in traditional American values. For that matter, I've heard about enough about corporate cronyism and its relationship with Big Government. That's how it is, people. In most other countries, the powerful simply exploit the weak with even less restraint than here. Justice will prevail upon all sinners – if not in this life, then in the next. Fear not.
I'm especially amused by the anti-Christian bigotry here, the line that it was Christianity that brought about the fall of Rome. To the extent that was true…hello, Rome put Christians in the Coliseum and fed them to lions for the entertainment of the masses. And its fall was a BAD thing? Does anyone doubt that the rise of what we now call "civilization" occurred BECAUSE of Christianity, not in spite of it? Sheesh. Maybe there is a reason that Europe went on to dominate the rest of the planet for centuries, followed by the rise of the USA as a global superpower. Maybe there's a reason it was them who did so, and not the Middle East, Africa, or Asia.
As many have pointed out, the East was more or less Christian and yet hung on for another 1000 years. It only fell because of the Ottomans' use of gunpowder cannon which breached the city's walls in 1453.
I think you people are nuts…about 80% of you anyway. The sane ones are those who point out the spirit of hard work is alive and well in this country. The surge in anti-government sentiment by the likes of the Tea Partiers is encouraging and fuels my optimism. People are starting to realize that the only "sustainability" that matters is the fiscal kind, not the environmental kind.
VDH's analysis is interesting, but I don't care for his brand of pessimism. It's the same reason I quit reading Mark Steyn. All he wants to talk about is demographic changes and the decline of the West due to Muslim immigration. What is he proposing? We need solutions, not cynical whining about how complacent we are.
The parallels with Rome are tired and I cast my lot with those who dismiss them. Rome was an empire when it fell, and it doesn't matter what led to its transformation from a republic. Contrary to the claims of the mouth-breathers on the Angry Left, the US is not an empire and it is not a ruthless territorial expansion like Imperial Rome was. We don't expand and expand at the expense of surrounding nations like Rome did.
The greatest and bloodiest conflict in world history, of which the US was the undisputed victor, found America taking only enough dirt to bury its dead…which met their fate while defending the freedoms of foreigners. It would have been years before the Axis were able to mount a meaningful offensive against the American homeland, if ever. (What was that Japanese commanders observation about a rifle behind every blade of grass?) You're going to sit here and tell me that the emperors and legions had one-tenth of our values? Rome would have dropped The Bomb on its enemies and been done with it.
Speaking of legions, I know many people who weren't even born here, but who work hard to better themselves because they know opportunity when they see it. A co-worker of mine came here from Vietnam when he was 16 and eats pizza, burgers and spaghetti like the rest of us. He doesn't complain and my only gripe with the guy is that his accent is a little hard to understand.
I have no time or patience for the pessimism I see here, and I'm certainly not interested in any talk of violent revolution. If the barbarians come for my family, I'll shoot them all, but until then I plan to keep working hard, being a good dad to my little one, praying to my God, relying on His guidance, and otherwise doing what I believe is right. The rest is all details.
My hope does not rest upon governments of men.March 2, 2010 - 3:52 am Link to this Comment | Reply
Unless you are self-employed, or are the CEO of a corporation your paycheck depends on 'the government of men.' You extoll 'working hard' but does it ever occur to you that it is someone else who determines how much, if at all, you will be paid. Have you seen compensation for your hard work? Statistics tell us that you are working harder now than 30 years ago, but your wages have remained flat. People shop at WalMart because no matter how 'hard they work' they are not compensated and cannot afford to shop anywhere else.
Does it ever bother you that you invest your body, mind, and creativity in your hard work and someone else profits by it? Maybe not if you are adequately compensated, but apparently not.April 25, 2011 - 6:36 am Link to this Comment | Reply
183. Bogdan R.
It is easy to get comfortable and allow things to come to you. After establishing a thriving power house like the Greeks did or now the Americans, one can see how new generations take basic societal survival tactics and disregard them only expecting them to be done by someone else. This laziness leads to dependence, as we can already see in American culture where every thing is made in China, and half of our blue collared laborers are from Mexico. When a nation gets careless and begins to realize their social inadequacies, it becomes to late and another super power emerges, one that has been steadily preparing and studying our every move. So it is not hard to compare the Greek's success,dependence and downfall to the current trend the US is embarking on!July 19, 2010 - 3:23 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
Do you honestly believe it was laziness that led to corporations taking their manufacturing to China?April 25, 2011 - 6:43 am Link to this Comment | Reply
184. Kerry
The main reason Americans went on a borrowing binge was because wages have remained flat since the 1970′s even though productivity was on the rise. CEO's began rewarding themselves, the income gap is now 400%, instead of raising wages.
Americans were desperate to continue the rising standard of living that had been taken place for the past 100years. How can they not provide for their family when they are working just as hard as their parents worked but were unable to continue to afford things?
Instead of strengthening labor unions or questioning the growing income gap, Americans borrowed and kept their mouths shut.April 25, 2011 - 5:55 am Link to this Comment | Reply
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186. Free Offer
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188. cynthia curran
I think conservatives tend to overemphasized the late Roman Empire's taxation and government control. I doubt that even in the age of Justinian the government collected more than 12 percent of the Gnp which is lower than the modern US or Western European Countries. The reason I believe this is even in ROmen's height back in the 2nd century no more than 5 to 7 pecent was collected by the Roman State and at the most 12 percent would seem opressed in taxes. Certainly, individuals tried to avoid the higher taxes on land if you were a peasant or an aristocartic. Studies show the early Byzantine Empire was successful in the east and the some like Anastatius did not rise the taxes and got rid of one of them.Justinian complain a lot in his law code of government officers pocketing the money which means the central government didn't have as much power as supposed. Granted, Procopius and others mention about Justinian scheming to take away money from the rich.March 28, 2012 - 6:04 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
189. cynthia curran
The worst thing from the period was that tax collectors could be ruthless.March 28, 2012 - 6:06 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
190. website designing
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