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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
What posessed you to recreate the fishing bobber and pool? Real life fishing has inspired more metaphors than any other sport- while itself serving as a near-perfect metaphor for humanity.
WoW fishing, on the other hand, is an almost-perfect metaphor for the afterlife waiting room in the movie Beetlejuice.
Awesome work, btw.
Drakkenfyre said...
I love fishing in real life, and I like fishing in the game.
I had plans to make an actual game bobber, to be used in real fishing. I have a list of components which will look close to the actual thing, but the one thing is the metal loop up top won't be as thick because in real life, it would make the bobber top-heavy, and the size of the bobber required to keep it stable would be too large for fishing anything below a big catfish.

subset: commoncrawl


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Ayvalık is a seaside town on the northwestern Aegean coast of Turkey. It is a district of the Balıkesir Province.Ayvalık is a district in Turkey's Balıkesir Province on the Aegean Sea coast, facing the Greek island of Lesbos. It is situated on a narrow coastal plain surrounded by low hills to the east which are covered with pine and olive trees. Ayvalık is also surrounded by the archipelago of the Ayvalık Islands on the sea and by a narrow peninsula in the south named the Hakkıbey Peninsula.
Ayvalık was located in the ancient region named Aeolis in antiquity. The ruins of three important ancient cities are within a short driving distance away from Ayvalık: Assos and Troy are to the north, while Pergamon is to the east.Ayvalık is also close to Bergama (ancient Pergamon) which is another important attraction for tourists with its ruins, dating back to antiquity.


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In our weekly edition, Elizabeth Dwoskin's cover story "Killing Mom and Dad" tells a horrific, but humanizing tale about Eric Bellucci, whose slip into schizophrenia culminated in the stabbing deaths of his mother and father late last year. For the first time, the surviving children of the Be ... More >>
Spiritualized's Jason Pierce. Photo by Suki Dhanda.In this week's Village Voice, Michael D. Ayers revisits the rock 'n' roll grandeur of Spiritualized's Ladies and Gentlemen We Are Floating in Space as the band prepares to perform the album at Radio City Music Hall, and Phillip Mlynar chronic ... More >>
94 critics voted. The results are in.
R.A. the Rugged Man: More dirty laundry than you can imagine. Photo by Calvin Godfrey.In this week's Village Voice, Ben Westhoff recounts the long, setback- and STD-ridden journey of Long Island's own R.A. the Rugged Man, Jed Lipinski talks to the players involved with the semi-embargoed Lil ... More >>


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Tornado Emergencies
Tornadoes can occur at any time during the year. However, the threat of tornadoes and high winds in our area will likely be more prevalent during the months of April through October.
We encourage students, faculty and staff to take a minute and determine safe areas BEFORE a storm arrives. The approach of severe weather may be announced by sirens located throughout the community, and also through local radio and television programs. In case of an approaching tornado, the following procedures are recommended:
1) Move to the nearest building and locate a safe place to wait.
2) Assist any physically challenged individuals, if needed.
3) Move to, or stay on, the lowest floor of any building.
4) Stay in central corridors away from glass; cover your face with folded arms.
5) Stay away from windows.
6) Leave corridor doors open.
7) Do NOT use any elevator.
8) Types of areas that should be considered the safest are:
· stairwells
· lower level rooms without any windows
· lower level hallways without any windows
· Nemzek Hall—the north section only. The field house is NOT considered to be
a safe area during high winds.
Winter Storm Emergencies
About 90% of the students and employees of Minnesota State University Moorhead live in the immediate Moorhead/Fargo area. Consequently, if travel is possible in the two cities, the university will usually try to avoid calling off classes and/or closing the campus. Each individual must take into account their own circumstances for travel to Moorhead and decide accordingly whether or not it is safe for them to travel.
Statutory Authority: 1994 Minnesota Statutes, Section 43A.05, Subdivision 4.
The authority to cancel classes and close college or university campuses when weather-or other emergency exists resides with the president or the president's designee. Cancellation of classes does not excuse any employee from work. The closure of State agencies by the Commissioner of the Department of Employee Relations does not apply to MnSCU Institutions.
Positions and employees of the college or university who provide services that are essential to the preservation of the State's investments during campus closings due to weather conditions are considered "weather-essential" employees and as such, will not be excused from work during campus closings.
President has delegated to the following persons the responsibility for implementing this plan:
Vice President for Student Affairs
(regarding decision about the cancellation of classes)
Vice President for Finance and Administration
(regarding decision about the closure of school/personnel matters)
Essential Staffing Requirements
The following Minnesota State University Moorhead personnel are considered to be "weather-essential" and as such, will not be excused from work duty during campus closings necessitated by weather conditions:
University Administrators
All Physical Plant employees except office personnel
All Heating Plant employees
All Building Services employees
Housing Supervisors, General Maintenance and Repair Workers, and Residence Hall Directors
Comstock Memorial Union General Maintenance Workers
Residence Hall Complex Coordinators and Resident Assistants
All Security personnel
Internal Operating Procedures
When a campus closing is declared, college or University employees are excused from work with pay. A campus closure applies to all employees without regard to labor contracts. Weather or other emergency-essential employees who are not excused from work will be paid at their regular rate of pay.
In the event of threatening weather, such as a tornado, the following recommendations shall be made to all employees, students and/or visitors:
Details regarding the anticipated length of closure and when we expect to open will be communicated as soon as possible, after a closing has been announced.
The following Television and Radio Stations will also be notified (listen for their periodic announcements—do NOT call these stations directly):
KXJB TV—local channel 4 WDAY TV—local channel 6 KVLY TV—local channel 11
KMSC Radio KCCM Radio KDSU Radio KFNW Radio
KFGO / Oldies 92.7 / KVOX am / K102 / River 95.1 / WDAY FM Radio
KQWB Radio / Q98 / Froggy KLTA-FM 105.1/ KPFX The Fox 107.9 KQWB AM-Star 1660
The following campus offices will be notified about this information:
1. MSUM Telephone Operator (218) 477-4000 (Voice), (218) 477-2980 (TTY)
#711 (MN Relay)
2. MSUM Campus Security (218) 477-2449
Employees who require special notification shall make arrangements with their supervisor.


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Designed for Women riders, our Women's Spectra Spring Suit features all the same features as our Men's spring suit. Custom designed to fit the female figure, the Women's Spectra Spring Suit offers great flexibility and comfort. Features: -2mm Neoprene -Flat-stitched seams for ultimate comfort -3/4 zipper for added lower back flex and ease of entry -Imported
Specifications and Options


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The story of jazz is a tale filled with tragedy, and while it may seem crass to try and place them in any sort of order, the life of Bud Powell has to rank amongst the saddest. A leader at 23, he was first admitted to a mental hospital that same year, a pairing that would become all too regular throughout his short life — the brilliance and madness perhaps rising from the same place. He was dead at 41, by then a shell of his former self. Happy birthday, Bud. May you have found peace.
Tags: bud powell jazz blue note piano birthday suck it nba
Happy birthday, John Coltrane.
Tags: john coltrane a love supreme jazz birthday suck it nba
I'm not normally one to recognize more than one birthday on any given day, but sometimes you need to make exceptions. Julian "Cannonball" Adderley is perhaps best known for his performance on Miles Davis's "Kind of Blue" (although ironically they misspelled his name as ADDERLY on the initial pressing), but his masterpiece remains "Somethin' Else," with Davis as a featured sideman. Released in 1958, it remains one of the pinnacle jazz recordings of the era. Do yourself a favor and pick it up today.
Tags: cannonball adderley somethin else jazz saxophone blue note birthday suck it nba
You can have your Keith Moons and your John Bonhams, keep your Dave Lombardos and Dave Grohls. The greatest drummer to ever live was born today, and that's that. Happy birthday, Elvin Jones.
Tags: elvin jones drums jazz a love supreme birthday suck it nba
It's probably possible to write about Sonny Rollins without referring to him as the saxophone colossus, but I'm not gonna even try it. Sonny Rollins has been playing the sax longer than you've been alive — hell, longer than your parents have been alive — and he's more or less retired the title of "baddest motherfucker alive." Sonny turns 81 today, he's still touring the world, and if you don't listen to him you're stupid. How's that?
Tags: jazz sonny rollins saxophone colossus birthday suck it nba
Happy 83rd birthday to one of the most influential jazz pianists of all-time, Horace Silver. One of the original Jazz Messengers and a Blue Note Records stalwart for nearly three decades, Silver's distinctive style helped usher in the hard bop era. Also, his 1961 track "Filthy McNasty" later provided a nickname for the Charles Barkley and Rick Mahorn tandem. So there's that.
Tags: piano jazz horace silver silver's blue pieces of silver blue note birthday suck it nba
Given how much heroin he did, it's amazing that Art Pepper lived to be 56. A virtuoso on alto and tenor sax, Pepper recorded with (among others) Buddy Rich, Chet Baker, Stan Kenton and, most famously, Miles Davis's rhythm section on 1957's matter-of-factly named "Art Pepper Meets the Rhythm Section." Happy birthday, Art.
Tags: art pepper heroin jazz john coltrane art pepper meets the rhythm section suck it nba suck it gloria estefan suck it padma lakshi
There is possibly no more tragic figure in jazz than Charlier Parker, and none more important. His playing helped redefine what jazz is — redefined it by itself — yet he died before that impact could be fully felt. Happy birthday, Bird. And, wherever you are, I hope you're smiling.
Tags: charlie parker saxophone jazz nyc birthday bird yardbird bebop suck it nba
Bill Evans died in 1980 as the world's oldest 51 year old, his body destroyed by years of addictions — heroin, alcohol, cocaine, the ever-present cigarette. Friend and author Gene Lees referred to his life as "the longest suicide in history." But what a life it was. A jazz pianist of the highest order, Evans's spare style helped shape the sound of Miles Davis's "Kind of Blue" (which released 52 years ago tomorrow), and his own trio found both popular success and critical acclaim. His demons eventually got the best of him, but it was a beautiful struggle. Bill Evans would have turned 82 today. Happy birthday.
Tags: bill evans jazz piano miles davis kind of blue heroin cocaine cigarettes village vanguard birthday suck it nba
What do you know about Louis Armstrong? "What A Wonderful World," yes. The bugged-out eyes, the wide grin. You may be aware that he played the trumpet, and was a major player in the early days of jazz. Make no mistake, Louis Armstrong was no novelty act, not just a shucker and jiver with a gravelly voice and a comic sensibility. Armstrong was an innovator, a tremendous trumpeter who was just as important (if not more so) than Dizzy Gillespie and Miles Davis. He's been gone 40 years now, but his importance hasn't waned. Happy 110th birthday, Satchmo.
Tags: louis armstrong trumpet jazz satchmo pops birthday suck it nba dizzy gillespie miles davis
Rock and roll will never die.
BACK IN THE DAY |4/25/95| Mobb Deep released their second album, The...
BACK IN THE DAY |4/25/95| Mobb Deep released their second album, The...
BACK IN THE DAY |4/25/94| The First Annual Source Awards took place at the...
BACK IN THE DAY |4/25/94| The First Annual Source Awards took place at the...
PoV: Nas' 5 Mics In 'The Source' — The Source once stood as "the bible of...
PoV: Nas' 5 Mics In 'The Source' — The Source once stood as "the bible of...
equilibrium. with the last 10 days being probably the most intense, challenging, fun, exhausting...
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Over the course of Damon Albarn's 25-year career, he's always seemed most comfortable hiding behind his music.
We've had the Britpop poster boy: the swaggering front man of Blur, who delighted in lampooning modern Britain with his cheeky lyrics. In Gorillaz he was the cool, cartoon hip hop superstar. There are the collaborations, of course, the innumerable one-off super groups, and the forays into global music – sessions with Malian musicians and a trip to China to write opera.
But he's never made an album about Damon...that is, until now.
Everyday Robots, a 12-track, elliptical record, follows Damon through every aspect of his life – from his birthplace in Leytonstone through to his travels in Tanzania.
So what better place to showcase the album than where it all started, which is where I found myself on a warm, Wednesday evening.
No, not Tanzania. Leytonstone. In a side room in Leytonstone Library, to be precise.
With its small stage, lack of bar and church-hall style velveteen curtains, it's the sort of place you'd imagine local drama groups rehearsing. But that evening, for a crowd of no more than 50, it was the venue Damon had decided to perform a gig.
Taking to the stage in his uniform of smart suit jacket and jeans, he was joined by The Heavy Seas: Seye (guitar), Pauli The PSM (drums), Jeff Wootton (bass) and Mike Smith (keyboards), string ensemble Demon Strings, and Leytonstone's very own Pentecostal City Mission Church Choir.
But this wasn't any ordinary show. This was an intimate performance, specifically for friends and family. As such, this was Damon as I'd never seen him before: vulnerable, his soul bared in front of those that matter most, his loved ones.
Smiling and affectionately welcoming his guests, there was no pretension, no bluster – just warmth. He opened with the rhythmic heartbeat of Lonely Press Play, progressing through to Everyday Robots – a reflection of our increasing alienation through technology.
Following this was the heart-wrenchingly beautiful Hostiles, the other-worldly You and Me (sans Brian Eno, who plays synths on the album), and Photographs, a comment on our preoccupation with documenting events rather than experiencing them - moving enough to embarrass me to put my camera away and stop filming the show.
In between songs he occasionally stopped to converse with the audience, often watching to see reactions of those gathered – including his father Keith (who appeared to be wearing the same style of suede boots as Damon) and mother Hazel.
His biggest fan however, was a little girl in a red checked dress, who swayed in time to the music with her mum, and often elicited a beaming smile and the odd comment from Damon.
Unless you specifically look for meaning, there are no obvious, dazzling revelations about Damon in any of these songs. Hollow Ponds, one of the stand-out tracks of the night, is a different story altogether, as it's inspired by his childhood and progression through to adulthood. Dedicating the track "to the people of Leytonstone", he sang of heatwaves, holidays and the Modern Life graffiti which inspired Blur's '93 album Modern Life is Rubbish.
By the end of the song, there was barely a dry eye in the house, and sensing the need to change tempo, what followed was the gospel-heavy, ukulele-twanging Mr Tembo – a track about an elephant he encountered in Tanzania, and the woozy, call and response chanting of Heavy Seas of Love. Both upbeat. Both uplifting. Both unforgettable.
Despite the stripped-down elements of the performance, all of his musical obsessions were present throughout: the Caribbean and African beats, the ominous classical instrumentation and of course, the odd nonsensical rhyme.
With an night spent reminiscing, there could be no other way to finish than with two Blur songs – For Tomorrow and a magical piano version of This Is A Low.
It's difficult to express the impact this gig has had on me. Days later, I'm still struggling to put it into words. Magical? Memorable? It's all too twee.
What I can be sure of is this: of all of his personas, Damon's finest has to be his own.


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Picture it:
The LGBB was having a Me Party. A party by herself, if you will…
But dang, the catchy tune was so good I had to join in. It became a Me Party + 1. Lolly was delighted! Mostly because I had come in when Miss Piggy joined the duet and, apparently, she saw an opening that was perfect for me to fill.
"Okay, Mummy… okay, you…" Lolly started organising and gesticulating with her arms and waving me into position like a stressed out backstage director, "you be Miss Piggy. Because you're fat…."
My face must have belied any attempt I made to mask my shock and horror, because my little stick insect-sized daughter (his genes, not mine, obviously) followed that up with, "Or not…. maybe."
Crestfallen, I took the tuna salad I had just made myself and retreated to the family room.
I was in tears. This was ridiculous. I've made such progress. I don't consider myself "fat", although I'm certainly large. I'll never be a waif. I don't want to be, if truth be told. Life has delivered some pretty hard knocks. I need meat on my dense bones, I can't afford to blow away on a stiff breeze.
But being hit right between the eyes with this reality today gave me a jolt. Not so much about myself and my perceived size, but the realisation that despite our attempts to not bring body image into our language at all, our observant and opinionated daughter has her own take on things.
Let me just interrupt myself here to say, outright, that the LGBB meant no harm. There is no malice and no hierarchy in her reasoning. She simply states facts, in that childlike way they do. But here, now, was a tricky conundrum Steve and I hadn't been properly prepared for: How do we let her know that her words hurt (she knew I was upset and asked her Dad if she had said something to make me sad after I had walked away to another room for a while for some thinking time out), without drawing attention to body image? It seemed unavoidable. It is something we have skirted for so long, simply by not taking issue with it… there hasn't been a need before now, I suppose.
Steve made a valiant effort of explaining to Lolly that it's not really appropriate to pass comment on anyone about how they appear – whether it be that they are short, tall, stout, skinny, fast, slow…. The whole general minefield of passing comment on another's appearance ought to be avoided. But on the other hand, it was just fact (to her). We don't praise her for being thin as a bag of bones – her size (apart from every second person exclaiming about her height – yes, we know… she's tall, okay already!) is not something we use to identify her strengths. Instead, we go for how she is with others, the things she does, and so forth. Of course, we tell her she's beautiful – who doesn't tell their children that? – but it doesn't go much beyond that. A person's worth, in our home, is not measured by their looks. How we are towards others is prioritised over what size we are.
I know Lolly knows this. I've just never heard her say the words "you're fat" before.
I guess now she knows the difference. She got it. She came to me and said she was sorry and gave me a generous hug and pat on my hair. I chose not to accept it as patronizing me further. (OK OK so I'm premenstrual… WHAT on earth gave that away????!! *sheepish*)
And me? Well, I'm now resisting turning my Me Party into a Pity Party with some of these round doughy things……
How about you? Have you ever had to broach the sensitive issue of not commentating on others' appearance with your children? How did you do it without making a "thing" about it?


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Richard Sandomir
Richard Sandomir has been the TV sports and business reporter for The New York Times since April 1991.
Previously, he was a freelance writer, writing about sports business for The Times, the Los Angeles Times, the Washington Post, Sports Illustrated and Sport magazine. He has also been a staff writer for Sports Inc., a business reporter for New York Newsday, a staff writer for the Stamford Advocate and a business writer for Financial World magazine.
Mr. Sandomir is the co-creator, with Mark Reiter, of two books, "The Final Four of Everything" (Simon & Schuster, 2009) and "The Enlightened Bracketologist: The Final Four of Everything" (Bloomsbury USA, 2007). With Rick Wolff, he wrote the parodies "Don't Worry, Stop Sweating...Use Deodorant" (Andrews Mcmeel Pub, 1998) and "Life for Real Dummies" (Perennial, 1996). Mr. Sandomir wrote the memoir "Bald Like Me: The Hair-Raising Adventures of Baldman" (Collier Books, 1990). His first book, "Friendly Persuasion" (Putnam, 1990), was a collaboration with the late sports attorney Bob Woolf about the art of negotiating.
Mr. Sandomir is a graduate of Queens College.He is married to the artist and writer Griffin Miller and they own four-legged, bewhiskered son, Cassidy. Mr. Sandomir has a shaved head.
TV Ratings Soar Amid N.F.L.'s Woes
On Sunday, CBS's late afternoon game, Seattle's overtime win over Denver, produced a 16.9 preliminary overnight rating, a 16 percent jump over the comparable game last season.
September 23, 2014, Tuesday
For Yankees, Farewell May Not Mean Goodbye
The Yankees salute departing stars with days in their honor, sometimes on two or three occasions years apart.
September 22, 2014, Monday
Breaking Silence, but Offering Little
Roger Goodell emerged in public on Friday, but in his news conference he offered little in the way of enlightenment or information.
September 20, 2014, Saturday
Alteration to Mets Logo on Twitter and Facebook Draws Attention
Someone mysteriously changed the Mets' 53-year-old logo on the team's social media accounts for a few days, replacing the United Nations headquarters with the Citigroup Center.
September 17, 2014, Wednesday
Game Day Reports: Off-the-Field Violence
In a week when a domestic violence video emerged and a child abuse indictment was handed down, what stood out most were personal perspectives.
September 16, 2014, Tuesday
Ex-Mets Executive Sues Jeff Wilpon, Citing Discrimination Over Pregnancy
Leigh Castergine, a former ticket-sales executive for the Mets, filed suit in federal court, accusing the team and its chief operating officer of discriminating against her for being pregnant without being married.
September 11, 2014, Thursday
The Man Who Spins Pinstripes Into Gold
Brandon Steiner has been a force in the sports memorabilia business since the early 1990s, and he is a key figure in the selling of Derek Jeter's final season with the Yankees.
September 7, 2014, Sunday
Fox Sports Develops Champions League Highlights Channel
Fox Sports plans to broadcast the group stage of the UEFA Champions League with Multimatch 90, a channel similar to NFL RedZone that will show up to eight games at a time.
September 6, 2014, Saturday
After Decades on CBS, U.S. Open Will Switch Channels Full Time
The men's singles final scheduled for Monday will be the final U.S. Open match carried by CBS, for now. Next year ESPN takes over coverage of the tournament.
September 4, 2014, Thursday
Colts' Owner Is Suspended and Fined After a Guilty Plea
The Colts owner Jim Irsay was suspended and fined $500,000 by the N.F.L. on after he pleaded guilty Tuesday to a misdemeanor related to a March traffic stop.
September 3, 2014, Wednesday
An Apology to Ronaldinho
Ray Hudson recounts one particular outburst that may have gone too far.
Acrobatic Verbal Maneuvering
The Times' Richard Sandomir asked Ray Hudson to describe his famously colorful style of calling soccer games, which he does from thousands of miles away, in a tiny booth in South Florida.
Rss Feeds On Richard Sandomir
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Tá linda a edição de aniversario do Meio & #mediaon com o guardian e silvio meira. Rupert Murdoch: the press baron who dared to look to the skies | Media. This article will be doing something that Rupert Murdoch would never contemplate – looking backwards.
He may be celebrating his 80th birthday on Friday, but it will not dim his ambition to go on building his already gigantic News Corporation. He looks only to the future. The fact that the behemoth of a company exists is entirely down to Murdoch's acute understanding of the media as a business, as a commercial proposition.
He might have done the groundwork in his native Australia, but it was his first two major newspaper acquisitions in Britain, when he was 37, that set him on the path to global dominance. In bidding for the News of the World in 1968 and the Sun the following year, he illustrated a gift for making deals against the odds. Periodismo con Futuro. Más tarde replicarán que cualquier crisis es más compleja de lo que se percibe desde el otro lado del charco.
Puede ser. Pero lo cierto es que hoy sufren decenas para que otros —muy pocos: los que debieran desvanecerse aunque sólo fuese por elegancia, dignidad y confesa impotencia—, puedan mantener corona y aleguen que es por la supervivencia de los cientos restantes. New Media and the Future of Business. I was recently interviewed by Israel's BuzzInNews about new media and business.
The conversation was translated from Hebrew to English, to share with you here as well. The discussion explores the evolution of social media in business from attention economics to B2B to ROI and concluding with a discussion of the brewing cold war between Google and Facebook. As an expert on New Media, could you provide an insight to what the difference is between New Media and Social Media? Do you think "New Media" is still new, or perhaps we should replace the word "New" with another word?


text: I have decided that this woman is my MRA mentor. She helps me feel good about me aside from all the hate because I was born a white male and I'm supposed to feel guilty for being me. (Because I'm of the same race and gender of those who enslaved blacks, killed indians and rape women), Anyways. She wants to talk to good feminists and I surprisingly have a lot of feminist followers, so if you see this and you are so inclined, please give this lady a chat. #yesallpeople #yesallwomen #killallmen #feminism #mra


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Fade to Mind's Kelela performed with Kingdom and Gas Lamp Killer at Ace Hotel Palm Springs during this year's Desert Gold — where she ended up on a poolside circle bed serenading a man in shades with "Bank Head." This weekend, she's wooing the crowd at MoMA PS1's 2013 Warm Up in Queens, NY. Must be her magic hands. If you'd like to try your magic hands at a pair of tickets to this weekend's Warm Up, you can enter our contest. And by all means, go down an internet rabbit hole about Kelela — she's a bright comet.
What's been inspiring you lately?
Girl Unit.
What three pieces of equipment could you not live without?
My iMac, voice note feature in my phone, and my VoiceLive Touch.
Get fitted for a pair of sharp-looking swim trunks that actually fit you, tonight at Project No.8 at Ace Hotel New York as they launch their summer men's swimwear collaboration with Quit Mad Stop, 6 to 9pm with fittings, beer, food and music. If you can't make it tonight, stop by anytime this weekend from 10am to 5pm to get fitted.
Our Swim Club San Jacintos Tank pays homage to our sunward-jutting neighbors just to the East of Ace Hotel & Swim Club — the fair San Jacintos — and to our brightest shining star. Seattle-based Jungmaven makes these from a natural white material composed of 55% hemp and 45% organic cotton. Hemp is an environmentally friendly, sustainable crop that produces more fiber per acre than trees, has naturally anti-microbial properties and goes from seed to harvest in only four months. It's hard to smoke though — we tried. Recommended use: wearing.


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The first baby of the new year was born at Saint Vincent Health Center, very early in the morning.
She's little Sabrina Hess.She was born at 1:33 a.m. on January 1st, to Audrey and Peter Hess of North East. Sabrina surprised her family, arriving three weeks early, but she weighs a healthy five pounds, thirteen ounces.She's coming into a big family."She's number five. I never expected to have a baby on New Year's Day... not the first one." Said mother, Audrey Hess.Congratulations to the Hess family!There was just one other baby born this New Year's Day, another baby girl at St. Vincent to Alex and Andrea Moffett. They named their new daughter, Alauna.
A big congratulations to the Moffett family as well!


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Development Futures: Development Futures papers propose innovative, 'cage-rattling' solutions to major, long-term problems that cut across different sectors and different countries, such as the failure of capacity building to deliver sustainable results.
Briefing Notes: Briefing Notes use evidence from OPM's projects and analytical work to recommend new and practical solutions to common problems faced by other countries. For example, what are the most effective channels for delivering cash transfers in different circumstances?
Working Papers: Our Working Papers provide a forum for exploring and developing new ideas; they draw on contributions from across the organisation and evolve with the wider debate.
Reports: Reports analyse the development implications of global and regional trends in major fields such as health and extractive industries, based on new data or new combinations of existing data.
In Focus: Our In Focus papers summarise the services provided by each of our teams and evidence this work with examples of a range of projects.


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Surgical Mesh – Leading 5 Unwanted side effects
5 Unwanted side effects When Used for Urogynaecological Surgical treatment and Pelvic Body organ Prolapse
Pelvic body organ prolapse. It's the expression used if the pelvic entire body organs in the body such as the vagina, cervix, urethra, bladder, uterus and rectum prolapse due to the decline of their organic helping ligaments and muscle mass cellular material. This absolutely is actually a serious situation and might pretty much incorporate a variety of concerns, therefore validating some successful remedy.
Prolapse surgical procedure however some no-medical techniques are likewise available, the sole reliable option is the surgical treatment. Among health care choices the plastic surgeon either can pick a restoration utilize a healthcare mesh or he could select the strengthening of patient's indigenous poor muscle cellular material and ligamentous supports. Counting on the kind of body organ prolapsed and also the level of the prolapse, vaginal hysterectomy for uterus, colporrhaphy for urethra and bladder by yourself, sacrocolpopexy and also sacrospinous ligament dependency for vagina and uterus, and posterior maintenance benefit vagina and rectum, might be employed. These might be conducted with vaginal, stomach or laparoscopic strategy. Each one of these remedies could or is probably not increased by the utilization of a vaginal mesh implant. The mesh functions by the unfamiliar entire body impact, triggering a fibrosis within the surrounding structures and hence supplying them the wanted strength.
Transvaginal mesh complications. Even though the vaginal mesh implants offer the necessary support to the prolapsed body organs, their use by no means chooses out complications. Some of them are especially hazardous and have lead to debates concerning their use. Described in the following paragraphs, are the 5 most frequent issues occurring from transvaginal mesh positioning.
Failure from the procedure. This happens to be the worst scenario from the case when the chosen procedure does not function around the particular client. Some patient's internal anatomy doesn't validate using a mesh and if that has been done powerfully, then the procedure is liable to fail.
Pain. Like each other surgical treatment, pain is an undesirable impact from the process. Major pain in vagina, leg, hips and reduce abdominal areas is a frequent follow up of mesh placement. This could be treated with medicines; nevertheless the persistent nature from the discomfort in some cases makes it tough to bear with. This is usually an outcome, either of the impingement of the fibrotic material around the nerves within the hips, or from the direct injury throughout surgery.
Infection from the graft. This is not an unusual thing to happen having towards the reality that the graft material is foreign and can quickly get contaminated. Type one macroporous soft propylene mesh has been discovered to have probably the most affordable occurrence of infection. This side impact manifests itself with discomfort, fever and leukocytosis on lab searchings for, and if not dealt with instantly can result in sepsis.
Extrusion of the mesh The vaginal mesh if not sutured properly, can be extruded transvaginally, giving rise to the symptoms of pain, discharge and bleeding through the vagina. The bleeding could be especially frustrating and may need transfusion support. The mesh within this case would be to be eliminated while protecting sufficient hemostasis.
Erosion from the mesh. Last however not the least is the erosion of the surgical mesh in to the surrounding frameworks of bladder, rectum, bowel and urethra, making use of the development of fistulae. This actually is a grim issue and requires the turnaround of the fistulae via surgical treatment.


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Despite all of the negative buzz surrounding Alpha Gamma Zeus, their ability to cultivate successful, powerful, thick-headed men, has been proven. Vin Diesel- star of the cult-classic The Fast and the Furious,' first came to the fraternity as Vinny Spagolini. The brotherhood morphed the modest computer programmer into Hollywood's hottest hunk. Other stars tied to the fraternity include Reginald VelJohnson, more widely known as Family Matters' Carl Winslow.
Like the Freemasons and the Sisterhood of Traveling Pants, Alpha Gamma Zeus is writing its way into the history books. With controversial hazing practices and major Hollywood star-power, this fraternity has just started to pick up momentum. Chapters have already expanded beyond the male-jock demographic with manly sororities like Alpha Gamma Xena. With high hopes of a pending lawsuit to be overturned, even an elementary school division looks to be in the near future.


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Chasing A Moving Target
A: A post for the sellers out there after getting some calls recently about this topic. If I had one piece of advice to Manhattan sellers, especially those who own properties that have few special resale features to offer (amazing park or river views, large outdoor space, fireplace, roof rights, amazing location, etc..), it would be to fight denial, resist the urge to anchor to peak prices, and to price your property aggressively at the outset. The hope is to be ahead-of-the-curve and to sell the property before you are forced to chase a moving target. The target of course are the buyers and the bid they may be willing to submit for your property.
When I say 'chasing a moving target', I refer to any property that has reduced their asking price 3,4, or even 5 times over the course of the listing in the desperate hopes to find out where "market value" is. This type of seller is chasing a moving target, a target of buyers that seem to be running away ahead of them; finding themselves behind the curve chasing the market as it falls. As the buyers run away due to declining confidence and deteriorating economic fundamentals, the seller's are chasing them down with the hopes of catching up. The result tends to be counterproductive because it ultimately can lead to fierce sell side competition and even a further depression of buy side confidence.
Let's say you are a buyer and you find an apartment that meets your needs. Now lets say that this property's asking price was reduced from $2,000,000 to $1,950,000, to $1,900,000, to $1,825,000, and is now asking $1,795,000; from original asking price to current asking price. As a savvy buyer in a market that is clearly pressured, with inventory clearly rising, with sales volume clearly way down, what are you going to be thinking about a potential bid?
Chances are you will say to yourself something like this..."well, the seller is obviously eager to sell because they keep reducing the asking price, so why not bid lower and see what type of response I get". This is the kind of psychology that occurs out in the field. Denying this exists, well, is to deny that psychology plays a role in the buyers mind during the buying process.
This buy side psychology is everywhere right now! Arguing this is to be an eternal optimist, and to see the silver lining in every situation; which is fine, but it may get you into trouble if you strategize a property sale in this manner. I'm not saying deals are not happening, they are, but deals that are happening are from buyers that are bidding cautiously! Even the Fed's beige book quoted Jonathan Miller's appraisal firm as telling us this:
"A major residential appraisal firm reports substantial deterioration in New York City's housing market over the past two months: prices of Manhattan co-ops and condos are reported to have fallen by 15 to 20 percent since mid-summer, though it is hard to get a clear handle on prices due to thin volume--much of the recent activity is reportedly from desperate sellers."This is where deals are happening at, due to the illiquid nature of the marketplace right now! Sellers should learn from this real time information and price accordingly; but most are not. Most sellers are still anchored to previous sales in their buildings, even though the time & place of those sales were in an environment much less pressured than today. As far as I'm concerned, if you are going to use a comparable sale from 8-12 months ago, might as well plan on selling for 20% or so below that figure; calculating in a premium/discount for what floor you are on, light/view differences, layout differences, and renovation differences.
There is a reason sales volume will be down significantly for the months of OCT-DEC 2008, and the reason is a disconnect between buyers & sellers. So, who's right? The buyers of course! The buyers are ALWAYS RIGHT! Umm, correct me if I am wrong, but that apartment you are trying to sell is ONLY worth as much as a buyer is willing & able to pay for it! Nothing more, nothing less. Just because your broker can't believe a buyer is not biting at a certain price, just because a seller can't believe no bids came in after a reduction or two, is proof that the market has changed and that the target is moving!
As publisher of UrbanDigs.com for the past 3 years, I am outrageously lucky to have such a great readership, and active forum for people to openly discuss their thoughts on any topic of the day. But one side effect is that sellers call me for help after they mistakenly fell for the oldest trick in the book; signing on with a broker that excels at the sales pitch, promises an unrealistic price for their property, and sells themselves as an expert on their building with plenty of buyers waiting already in the wings. Of course, the high price puts the seller behind the curve and forces them to ultimately chase the moving target; and there never really were any serious buyers to begin with! So, these sellers call me because they want to know what price their property should be listed at given the real time conditions of the marketplace. I can't help these people because they are signed to listing agreements with their broker, and it would be unethical of me to interfere and give advice to somebody else's client.
I don't care who you use to sell your property, but you need to be smart and acknowledge the world we are in RIGHT NOW! The world 6 months ago doesn't matter anymore. If you decide to price high because a broker promises that their business will get you that number, don't expect a quick sale! In fact, expect a long time on market with plenty of price reductions to re-stimulate traffic to your listing as time goes on.
The reasons why I think the next 2-3 quarters in Manhattan will continue to be pressured are as follows:
1) JOBS - when the forced marriages of the credit crisis close, the re-organization, costs cuts, and job cuts will be announced. I believe Merrill alone is expected to announce up to 30,000 job cuts when their deal with Bank of America closes next quarter. Merrill will not be the only financial institution to announce layoffs.
As it gets going in the financial sector, the slowdown will ultimately seap into the real economy here in NYC. The result will be layoffs at consumer driven business during the course of 2009. Its a very sad chapter of this crisis. To think that Manhattan real estate has seen the worst of the declines, as we enter a period of heavy job losses, is quite silly. Unfortunately, we must assume that X percentage of these jobs lost are from those that own a home here in Manhattan. Lets keep it real here as always, 2009 is likely to be the dark year for Manhattan's economy and it is certainly rational to expect this fundamental to continue to pressure the sell side of our real estate market.
2) APPRAISALS - NEGATIVE TIME VALUE - something that very few are discussing. Let us wake up the reality that the market has eroded and that the significant erosion in prices has not yet filtered through to closed sales. In comes 'negative time value' from the appraisal side. Now, when you do comps analysis on that property you are considering bidding for, you have to review comps from the past 6-8 months, which means the deal was signed into contract between 8-11 months ago or so. It's only when the deal closes that the purchase price is recorded as a matter of public record; and then used as a comp. Think about what will happen when NOV & DEC sales get recorded in JAN & FEB of next year! These fresh comps, that reflect the erosion I have been describing recently, will set the new hallmark for analysis!
Jonathan Miller adds:
"Conditions this fall have been characterized by low sales activity and price erosion. We have been making negative time adjustments on most of our appraisals during this period to reflect the change in value between the date the "comp" sold and current value. Not one lender has expressed concern and in fact, continue to remind their approved appraisers to reflect current market conditions in their reports. The rapid change in this underwriting orientation is personally shocking to me since underwriting has been detached from reality for so long. In my view, restoring trust in the lending process begins with having correct valuations as a benchmark for informed lending decisions."When these deals close, and are entered into the system as comps, it will set the new level for future analysis. The question then becomes, how much longer will the appraisers price in 'negative time value' into their #s?
3) MEDIA - I am telling you that the market is illiquid, sales volume down significantly, and that deals being done today are in the 15-25% down from peak range. It is likely that these contracts that are signed today, will close in the next 1-3 months. With that said, it appears Q1 of 2009, released April of 2009, could be an ugly report. If it is, and reflects what real time information I am discussing here, then the media is going to go overboard with it.
The effects on buy side confidence and psychology from the media's take on the Manhattan market at that time, is likely to further dampen demand at a time when many sellers will probably have a time pressure to move the property. Time will tell if the media enhances this slowdown cycle.
4) POCKETS OF DISTRESS - feeds from #1. It is likely we see more pockets of distress as long as this market REMAINS ILLIQUID! That is the key phrase, illiquid! If this market remains illiquid, and there are few bids being submitted, trust me, you will eventually see those sellers that absolutely must move property. This may lead to some fierce sell side competition IF the market remains illiquid for a significant portion of 2009. I generally ask myself, what fundamentals will improve over the next few quarters that will lead to a wave of buyers entering this market with strong bids, adding liquidity to the market? I have trouble rationalizing an answer to this question right now.
Sellers, price ahead of the curve for any hope of avoiding chasing a moving target!
Noah, just about the best analysis and advice for sellers in today's market (NYC and elsewhere) that I have read. Congrats, Howard
Great advice Noah. To add to your arguments, are there any forward (Manhatton or NYC) housing price curves that you can highlight. If there are any, I am sure they are predicting further declines.
Thanks Charleston!! tryin here
EV - the only curves I have are the real time trends data from SE..
1) Inventory levels in past 6 months and the move it made
2) Weekly average for PRICE REDUCTIONS since mid AUG..Remember this one is weekly average so it basically doubled
3)GAP widening between weekly average for contracts signed and new listings coming to market. Again, weekly average. Level of contracts signed drop is significant
Very good post Noah. Everthing you say is correct I think. I'd add something more to the discussion though: it seems to me that in addition to the fact the market is roughly 20% below recent peaks today, a savy buyer would want an additional "risk discount" deducted on top of the 20% to get to a final contract price.
This additional discount of course would be for taking the risk of buying now when we clearly have not reached the trough. And of course no one ever knows where the trough is and how deep it will go; but if I were buying today I'd want some additional protection/acknowledgment from the seller of the fact that lower prices over the next year or two are inevitable, for all the reasons you state (and things could become even much worse than any of us yet can know or imagine).
What that additional discount should be is a judgment call of course. Might be another 5-10-15% in my view.
great point Aquarian! I think buyers are pricing in future downturn risk in some bids today
I think that psychology is embedded now. Great point!!
Yep, April '09 is going to be a real SH*T SHOW, and as a potential buyer in Manhattan, what I have been waiting to see for the past four years. Looking forward to it!!
Great Real Estate post ... I found it very interesting.
Noah, this post is an absolute read for any real seller who has their apt on the market or is thinking about selling. Unfortunately, the vast majority of sellers will not allow themselves to beleive this or are in complete denial. I passed on taking two exclusive listings in the last month because the seller failed to understand what you are talking about. You hit the nail on the head!
Your best post. I completely agree with your analysis.
Brokerman - Thanks and I did the same thing! I went on 3 pitches in past 2 months or so, and 2/3 were totally unrealistic and I had no interest in working for the prices they wanted to ask, and what they told me they would only sell for. They were in total denial!
Thanks mh23! Tryin my best here to tell it like i see it!!
It is times like these (which you, Noah, aptly describe) that remind me of why old adages continually make sense.
To wit: you can bring a horse to water but you can't make him drink.
I am afraid that, in most cases, your excellent advice will fall on deaf ears.
I have followed your postings for a year now and, with the exception of one area, I find your analysis to be honest and intelligent. When the issues have to do with jobs, bonuses, credit fallout, depression like scenarios, you have been keenly accurate in your predictions and unafraid to lay out dire scenarios now existing and that are still to come. However, given your firm grasp of the macro issues, it is always disappointing to me to watch you tiptoe around any discussions about where the Manhattan sales market is really headed and your resistance to put a number on it. In this regard, you are mostly reactive in reporting 15%-25% price declines but do not venture out, as you have done liberally elsewhere, to project impending price decline of 40%-50% or more that seem inevitable and unavoidable in the context of any meaningful macro considerations. The only pillars that have held up Manhattan apartment prices are finance and foreigners and as they crumble before us, what conclusion is there other than that a 25% correction of apartment prices are quickly becoming a mirage in the rear view mirror?
Having said that,I appreciate that you work in an industry that would look none too favorably on you if you were to post such brutal projections and I would probably do the same if I were in your shoes. Nonetheless, whether you can say so or not, knowing what you know, I'm sure you would agree with this view. After all it's just another falling shoe.
Monte - thank you and great comment. I have never been through a debt deflation scenario like we are going through now. I dont know how bad it could get. I dont want to be doomy, I really dont. I like to be real, and tell it like it is, but I dont know how the fiscal and monetary stimulus will slow down this cycle?
Does anyone else know? I dont think anyone does. My worst fear is we have a lost decade like Japan and Manhattan real estate stays illiquid for 5-7 years. If that is the case, sure, we can see 40-50% declines because those that have to sell will be forced to hit the bid they receive. But I just dont know.
Trust me, I wish I did because I would be a multi millionaire and prob wouldnt be blogging here. I would own a bar, in jamaica, with a reggae band, on the ocean, overlooking the susnet. Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Noah, you are absolutely right, I wish there were more real estate professionals like you out there.
This is exactly how we sold our house in June. Our first agent last year told us that it is such a great house (which is true, but what does it really mean versus real estate market situation?), put a high price on (without telling us that her own agency advice was at least 50K lower). The house was on the market for 8 months, lowered in price 5 times, before we de-listed it.
This spring after we prepared the house and changed the agent to one who was pricing right, once again, the agent loved our house (many people did, it was a great contemporary) and could not believe that we wanted to go aggressive. I convinced her and my spouse to price it on a higher end of the aggressive price, so we have our absolute minimum in mind, if a serious buyer negotiates. And the place was sold within a month - because we had a beautiful house, that was unique, and priced so aggressively that others could not compete and did not really understand yet that they are losing money by staying on the market with their 'ideal' price for 1 year or more.
Now we are looking at Manhattan, and feel for sellers as we went through this just few months ago. But you are absolutely right - it is the buyer who is always right, and the buyer is the one who prices in this market. We will probably wait a bit more to save more cash, and hopefully go for an all cash or larger portion cash deal - this seems to be a right thing to do in this illiquid situation.
Thanks again, great post,
I would have to disagree with the buyer "always" being right. I know of many examples where buyers have lowballed, only for the apartment to sell for more money down the road to a different buyer. While there are certainly greedy sellers out there looking to mae a killing, there are just as many greedy buyers out there looking to get something for nothing.
Donald - then the buyer who ultimately bought the place was right. Try not to over analyze that statement, although I do see truth in your comment.
For example, if seller is asking 1MLN, and buyer bids 750K and doesnt go higher, that doesnt mean the buyer was right and the place is worth 750K. It means at that period of time, that is what a buyer is willing to pay for the apartment AT THAT TIME and that is what its worth AT THAT TIME.
If a month later you get 850K and the deal is done then, then this buyer just made the market and revealed what the property was worth!
That is what I mean. In the end, a property is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. And right now, bids are scare and low. A different market. In boom times, a bid could go well over ask, meaning that is what the place was worth. It was right. But now, its quite the opposite.
When no bids come in, well, what is the seller to do? In the end, a property is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. If it happens to be 750K today, and 850K tomorrow, whatever, that is what happens in free markets.
Did I back this up properly?
As always, great comment and I do see your point
Donald - fantastic comment now that I think about it. Let me give 2 real life examples but leave the property address out to protect my clients.
CASE 1 - I had a seller asking 2.2MLN about 200K over market value in my opinion at the time in late 2006. After 3 months, and about 40 showings, no bids. None. Then in early 2007, we got 1 bid of 1.9MLN, after tough negotitations I got it up to FULL ASK. My seller backed away and delisted. After another week of talking to the buyer, I got it up to 2.3MLN, 100K over ask. My sellers refused. This was one buyer bidding against themselves and I tried to talk sense into my client. They still refused.
So, they relisted with another firm, at 2.595MLN, cut price 3 times, in late 2007, and sold for 2MIL! 300K lower than the qualified buyer I procured. They sold and closed. Proof how the place is only worth what a buyer will pay at that time.
CASE 2 - Another seller drastcially overpricing at 2.1MIL, prob worth about 1.5MIL. We got a bid of 1.2MIL after 2 months, my client had no response. later on we lowered price and after 10 months and a listing extension, we were asking 1.4MLNM. We ended up selling for 1.01MLN. By waiting and disregarding the low ball, the market moved against them and later she got a bid much lower. More proof of the other side of the argument.
So, what does this tell us? Well, you never know what bid may come down the road, where it will be, or how the market may improve or deteriorate in the meantime. Its a game. Question is, is the seller ultimately right to neg the bid? Or ultimately wrong? In these two real life cases, they were wrong. In your case they were right.
Hence is Life as a broker!
That's a very interesting post, and great comments as well. I do agree that buyer sentiment is a key factor in THIS market, but don't forget that in the end valuations always revert to fundamental affordability ratios (rent/buy, value/income, Case Shiller etc.), Based on that, I predict a further price decline of 20% during 1Q 2009 to get some deals done, followed by an awful summer as the Wall Street crisis fully hits the real economy in NYC. During 4Q we'll see the current $2.0 million listings of classic 6 apts on the UWS listed at 800K, if that much.
Allow me to be one of the few not to join in on the bear festival. Yes, I'm probably the only poster here trying to sell in this market, so I must be either delusionally in denial or desparate, right? Down with those greedy owners! ;-)
But seriously, I just wanted to say that I too agree with Noah- on everything. It works against me but I also believe that real estate is only worth what a buyer is willing to pay for it. I have a medium sized 1BR (yep, no shortage of them right now) in a downtown condo building desirable for its view, amenities and comparitively low
monthly maintenance. There are 2 units identical to mine for sale, my asking is 10% below the next lowest ask, 20% below the last sale price (FSBO) for an identical unit, a year ago. Is my asking still too high? Maybe, maybe not- I have no way to tell because one of the symptoms of this illiquid market is that visiting buyers only seem to be window shopping. The ones that say they really like the apartment never make an offer. That's been puzzling; there's nothing to lose by lowballing. It's not I'm going to choke someone for offering 70% below peak, the most I could do is say no- but who knows? Comment?
I do think one of the comments made here is a little ridiculous though. It is just to as nonsensical for a buyer to say "my offer is x, but I'm going to subtract 15% from it because the market will go down by that much in y months", as it would have been in 2004 for a seller to say "I will accept your offer of x but I'm going to add 15% to it because the market will go up by that much in y months". We may have many indicators, but noone knows exactly where and when the bottom is- or whether we're on a truly straight line or there are some bumps on the way down. I'm in agreement that we're probably looking at an L shaped market. I feel fortunate that at the current time I'm not forced to sell, though time on the market is inconvenient and an expense. If I can actually see what the curve is, I'll price ahead of it but I don't pay attention to arbitrary predictions I hear- whether overinflated or underinflated.
Just curious- are any of the posters here also currently selling, or even just owners?
Seller - what a great comment. This is why I love blogging. Finally, I hear from the other site outside of potential sellers I have pitched recently (cough, cough, who decided not to use me)...
Its hard to know exactly w/out the unit # and address, which I wont ask for here, but what you describe is what I hear from a broad group whom I keep in touch with. When many agents and customers feel a certain way together, its ok to chat about the current real time market here in detail on urbandigs
What you describe is the problem with an illiquid market and when buyers disappear. You seem to be at least acknowledging this environment, and trying to stay ahead so I would take a look at how you are marketing. Even the best marketing wont work in this type of market though sometimes.
It seems you have a nice apt, maybe cookie cutter, but with a condo, with low monthlies and desirable view, so I assume light as well, and amenities. And your priced most aggressively. So that leaves me with 2 issues in my deranged head. Either its:
a) the price still, sorry, hate to say it but that only means curve is running away from you faster than you thought
b) marketing?
Its most likely A. If your listing is on NYtimes online and print, streeteasy, streeteasy featured, e-blasts within brokerage community, and internal RLS sharing system, then its your price and you should get more aggressive when you reach that point that you just want to sell. Question is, do you do it sooner rather than later. I don't want to consult you, but I think the next quarter will remain illiquid, how it is now. So ask yourself what you are willing to move the property for now, and go just above it.
Seller - great post. I remember searching through real estate listings periodically from 2004-07 thinking things could not get more insane. Luckily I was not wedded to the idea of buying, had even sold because I thought a bubble was forming rapidly, but the never-ending upward carnage took my breath away.
I would imagine it's a bit like that now on the flip side for sellers. Of course sellers would like to get a reasonable amount for their units, and just like I was almost in disbelief at the increasing prices, sellers must feel the same way about the declining ones. But just like that upward momentum, the downturn has a life of its own as well. Good luck.
Seller wrote: "I do think one of the comments made here is a little ridiculous though. It is just to as nonsensical for a buyer to say "my offer is x, but I'm going to subtract 15% from it because the market will go down by that much in y months", as it would have been in 2004 for a seller to say "I will accept your offer of x but I'm going to add 15% to it because the market will go up by that much in y months".
But that is exactly what sellers did when the market was booming. They looked at what something sold for (just) and tacked on 10, 15, 20% and sat back and waited for the market to run up.
Resorting to "fundamental value" arguments is best left to college professors. I resent the notion that there is some singular point for asset prices that is a true value..IT DOESNT EXIST. As for rent/buy equations, to me, it too misses the point at a time when income levels are being fundamentally impaired. And if underlying cash flow of the NYC resident is taking a step function down, perhaps it's not buy vs. rent, but BOTH buy AND rent are wildly overpriced. If Wall Street bonuses are down 50% and back to '02 levels, and many other professions (RE agents, Ad salesman, retailers etc.) feel the burn, rental prices are in for a real adjustment as well
sfone, you can ignore fundamental valuation analysis at your own risk and peril. That is exactly why there are bubbles - because people ignore fundamentals.
Interesting discussion on the buyer being right issue. I've been watching the market for over a year now looking to buy on UES. I made 2 offers, both rejected. One ended up calling me several months later to try and accept (I said no thanks and they ended up selling for $100k less than my "obnoxious" bid). The other pulled the apartment off the market after telling me how many offers they got.
Point I want to make to SELLER is that I'm no longer making offers, because I have no idea where prices will go. At the time I made my previous offers I thought they would be good prices even in a slowing market -- today the rest of the market has come down to where I made my "lowball" offers. Plus, my job security isn't as good as it was previously.
What is the "fundamental value" of a house/apartment other than what a buyer is willing to/can afford to pay? The replacement cost? That would tie it to the price of commodities and labor.
I'm a seller too. I own a house in northern NJ that I have been trying to sell since 2006 (I know, pathetic, huh?). The house is a real POS so I'm not surprised that it has not sold. It's very difficult to judge whether the asking price is fair because, unlike in Manhattan, no two comps are exactly alike. The closest comps to my house only has 1 full bathroom, but mine has 4 so I thought being priced $80,000 more than that house sold for is fair.
My point wasn't ignoring "fundamentals." I was taking exception to the notion of a "fundamental value" as a singular assignment, as if values are static. If everything reverted to a commonly accepted "fundamental value" activity would stop. There would be no investment, no risk-seeking, because everything would be perfectly priced, both absolutely and relatively. This is the buggaboo of quantitative finance. Measuring each "piece" of risk on a matrix as if it's a Connect4 board is the height of arrogance. My point is, values are relative. That is why bubbles occur. The NYC Dept of Finance uses Cap rates of 20% to determine market value for the city's properties. Why is that? Private investors use 1/2 that, even in one of the worst performing years ever.
I agree with you and was asking an honest question. As a potential buyer, the rapid boom and bust have left me clueless on how to figure out what a place is actually worth. It seems to be all about psychology and not "real" value. How do I buy if i can't get a sense of what a fair price is or the intrinsic value?
I thought the post by "seller" was very interesting. I am a serious cash buyer and I can tell you the reason I am not bidding anymore is that I believe that brokers and sellers are delusional and still don't get it. For example, I really liked a 1.3mil apt. I know I can rent a similar apt for 6000 (I think 5500 now). I offered 1mil cash and there was no counter offer. Apt has not sold. Broker told me that they believe they had priced it at market value. There is another apt listed at 1.49 on the UWS. No price cuts for 3 months. Seller is now trying to rent for $6400-- no takers. You do the math. No point bidding-- this seller doesn't get it. Also sometimes I see apts bought in 2006 for 1.2 and listed for 1.5. I don't think they are worth 1.2 now, why bother bidding? Sellers aren't going to take a loss unless they have too. I used to go to OHs every weekend. I used to engage the broker just to get a sense of what they were thinking. Only one broker understood that the market had really changed. The other brokers would give me broker babble. So why waste my time? I am waiting for the news to hit the front page. When we all agree that there is a real and significant downturn, I will start making offers. I have better things to do with my Sunday than look at overpriced apts. As long as its significantly cheaper to rent the same type of space, the apt is overvalued. That is how I determine value.
I thought the post by "seller" was very interesting. I am a serious cash buyer and I can tell you the reason I am not bidding anymore is that I believe that brokers and sellers are delusional and still don't get it. For example, I really liked a 1.3mil apt. I know I can rent a similar apt for 6000 (I think 5500 now). I offered 1mil cash and there was no counter offer. Apt has not sold. Broker told me that they believe they had priced it at market value. There is another apt listed at 1.49 on the UWS. No price cuts for 3 months. Seller is now trying to rent for $6400-- no takers. You do the math. No point bidding-- this seller doesn't get it. Also sometimes I see apts bought in 2006 for 1.2 and listed for 1.5. I don't think they are worth 1.2 now, why bother bidding? Sellers aren't going to take a loss unless they have too. I used to go to OHs every weekend. I used to engage the broker just to get a sense of what they were thinking. Only one broker understood that the market had really changed. The other brokers would give me broker babble. So why waste my time? I am waiting for the news to hit the front page. When we all agree that there is a real and significant downturn, I will start making offers. I have better things to do with my Sunday than look at overpriced apts. As long as its significantly cheaper to rent the same type of space, the apt is overvalued. That is how I determine value.
great advice. we are seeing a lot of sellers in our market pricing condos hirer because they think it is special. But so do the other 12,000 property owners that have units on the market
>>As long as its significantly cheaper to rent the same type of space, the apt is overvalued
That makes a lot of sense and is in a nutshell why I have not purchased yet.
Jon wrote: "Point I want to make to SELLER is that I'm no longer making offers, because I have no idea where prices will go. At the time I made my previous offers I thought they would be good prices even in a slowing market -- today the rest of the market has come down to where I made my "lowball" offers. Plus, my job security isn't as good as it was previously."
I think that really sums up the 1-2 punch of this market. The potential buyers aren't just worried about overpaying into a decline - - their own internal situations are shakier.
That's just another moving target to add into the mix.
seriousbuyer: I can see how you feel based on your experience that making an offer on the listings you've seen is futile- but I still don't understand that thinking.
If you have nothing to lose by making an offer why wouldn't you? If you've gone through the effort of actually going out to view the property and like it enough to have a price in mind, it only takes a two minute phone call to make a verbal offer- which you aren't bound to without a contract. That seller didn't counter your 1 mil offer- are you any worse off because of that? If anything it gave you more information about the seller.
If brokers and sellers are delusional, let them be. It doesn't cost you anything to see them balk, and on the contrary could even result in a seller chasing you some time in the near future at better terms- if the experiences being reported here are true.
As someone currently trying to sell, I understand that buyers have the control. If someone were to offer a lowball to me, I might turn it down- but not until I've slept on it, weighed in all the factors and came to the conclusion that the risk of short changing my asset is more severe than the risk of missing an opportunity to sell at the present time. That's not delusional in any market, and not all sellers are delusional.
I just seems to me that the majority of buyers currently going to OHs and requesting viewings are only window shopping with an intention to buy when the market has reached its "bottom".
I was at an open house in Harlem on Sunday. I was interested in one apt. and was given the Sponsor's "best offer". Half of the line sold in Spring 2007 at similar prices, adjusted for floor premiums, so I was able to determine the Spring 2007 price for the unit I was looking at. Assuming Noah's view of a 25% drop from peak (lets say 20% if April is not at peak) the price I was offered was only discounted by 7%. I made an offer based on the 25% and was given a higher counter offer than I was told at the open house.
I don't think some sellers realize that the market has changed.
Possible Buyer, the sponsor for that building may well be pricing significantly behind the curve. It makes no sense to me at all that they would actually counter your offer with one higher than their original price in this market- unless they already have one or more strong bids from other buyers, which you didn't mention so I'd imagine that's not the case.
If it were me and I didn't like your price but thought you were well qualified I'd at least try to meet you somewhere in between. Just wanted to say that your experience here reinforces my point that you had nothing to lose by making an offer and in the process gained some experience in understanding the anchoring mentality of some- but not all sellers in this market.
Seller - thanks for your comments. My thought is to price the apartment for a little below what I think it is presently worth and then go up 5% if the Sponsor is willing to negotiate. In a few months, as mentioned in an earlier UD blog, closings for contracts signed in the 4th Quarter will come in and will reflect current market conditions, which will result in much lower values in appraisals. This will force reluctant sellers, even Sponsors who are clinging to year-old pricing, to lower prices or have deals fall through because Seller's cannot get financing on inflated prices.
Noah is 100% spot on.
Is a one BR condo at say 200 Chambers of 325 Fifth or anywhere else for that matter, worth $1-1,750,000?
Of course not. The NYC real estate market became a huge Ponzi scheme, but there are no more fools and suckers, all these people have been wiped out.
So what's the 1BR condo worth now? At most between $500-600 PSF.
So what's going to happen? When the Alt As and Int. only mortgages reset, a huge wave of forecolures.
So many people who bought at these ridiculous prices, could not afford what they were "buying", and now won't be able to pay the mortgage.
But the idiot moroon brokers keep saying, "my seller will take xxx". Huh? Those days have long passed.
I'd say we may see a few buyers when we start to see 1999 prices and not a nickle more.
Dear Realtor,
It's no secret that dramatic changes have occurred in the Real Estate market lately.
So the question is...How are you going to move forward in 2009?
Let me suggest that you become more scientific about pricing, buying habits, and market tactics. In short, you are going to need a Strategic Pricing Plan.
My online pricing system will give you the tools you need, so that you can immediately attract more buyers, trigger more sales, and negotiate better deals for your clients.
Please visit www.RealtyPriceTarget.com to find out more...
- Allan
Founder Realty Price Target
it is great article for home sellers,Selling house can be the worst nightmare you will ever have since this is not an easy job. But if you know how to do this and if you have a guide to follow, then everything will be manageable. After a good transaction, you will be very pleased with the outcome because everything turns out smooth, favorable to you, and of course the family who bought your house has a beautiful place to live.
Waterfront living has always been a popular lifestyle in Florida, after all we are surrounded by water on three sides of the state. The majority of people seeking a home on the water want to enjoy the breathtaking views that are experienced day in and day out from waterfront living as well as the easy access to water sports and leisure activities such as boating and fishing. Others will benefit from the relaxation factors associated with the sounds of waves, the scent in the air, the cool breezes, and the abundance of wildlife who call the water their home as well. No matter what your reason is for wanting to live waterside, all waterfront residents enjoy the steady rise of property values they gain from living on the water. It is never difficult to find someone seeking an interest in waterfront property. Dunedin, Florida has an abundance of waterfront properties to choose from that are available as a primary residence or a second home. A multitude of condominiums are also available along Dunedin Causeway and Bayshore Boulevard where the sights are very impressive.


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Senior executives, VPs and directors, supervisors and managers at your hospital - can they explain what the HCAHPS survey is and what HCAHPS survey results mean to your organization? Probably. What about your hospital staff? Maybe not...Make sure your healthcare HR team is ready for HCAHPS so you can support your hospital staff at every level. In our upcoming live educational session, the HCAHPS Readiness Survey Results Webinar, we're going to explore issues like these.
Last fall, we surveyed nearly 300 healthcare professionals (78% of whom are in HR, with the rest on the clinical or IT side of healthcare) about their "readiness" for HCAHPS. What exactly does it mean to be "HCAHPS ready"? We'll review that in the Webinar, too. But here's a preview of what HealthcareSource defines as being HCAHPS ready:
Everyone in your organization knows what HCAHPS is and what it means to the organization
You incorporate HCAHPS competencies into your candidate evaluations
Your hiring managers are trained on how to "hire for HCAHPS"
Employees are held responsible, at every level of the organization, for HCAHPS goals (i.e. improving scores that reflect their department)
That's a tall order! But the reality is, many experts in patient safety and satisfaction believe these HR measures make all the difference when it comes to improving HCAHPS survey scores. That means healthcare HR should be partnering with hiring managers and senior leaders to ensure that their organization is ready for HCAHPS. And with a huge initiative like this, technology should be the driver to educate employees on HCAHPS and help them hire for HCAHPS. I know - I keep talking about hiring for HCAHPS. What are those HCAHPS competencies you should be assessing candidates for? There are more than three (and we'll review these during the webinar). But here's another preview, here are the top three C's:
Customer orientation
Why are these three specific competencies so important when it comes to HCAHPS? You'll have to join our webinar to find out...So get ready to put on that HR superhero cape and help your organization increase patient satisfaction survey scores. Our HCAHPS Readiness Webinar will help you get there. Watch the replay today!


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American politics
World news about "American politics" published by euronews.
Clinton "thinking" about second US presidency bid
A high-profile appearance by former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has reignited speculation that she may run for the White House for a second time. Addressing a 10,000-strong crowd at a Democrat meeting in Iowa on Sunday, she said she hadn't yet decided whether to…
Obama: US not intimidated by 'barbaric' Sotloff execution
On a visit to Estonia, President Obama has said America's resolve…
Obama to talk tough at summit with European allies
As President Obama prepares travel to Europe for the second time in less than three months, US military planners are working on policy options…
Indicted Texas Governor: Obama wrong on border crisis and weak on terrorism
With the president on vacation and Congress in summer recess, August in…
US reveals failed attempt to rescue hostages in Syria
The Pentagon has revealed that US special forces had recently attempted…
Eric Holder visits Ferguson on peace mission
US Attorney General Eric Holder has promised a thorough civil rights probe into the fatal police shooting of an unarmed black teenager in…
Indicted Texas governor turns himself in
Potential Republican presidential candidate, Texas Governor Rick Perry has turned himself in to the authorities after being indicted last week…
Obama plan for influx of Central American migrant children under spotlight
The Obama administration's emergency plan for dealing with a huge…
Top US spy 'told to leave' Berlin
The plot thickens in the American spy story in Germany after Berlin…
Obama seeks ways to tackle growing child migrant crisis
Faced with a growing wave of child migrants crossing from Central…
Second US spy suspect investigated in Germany
Behind the walls of power in Berlin suspicions are growing between two allies. For the second time in a week, the German authorities are…
US hits out at Thailand and Malaysia over human trafficking
US Secretary of State John Kerry has accused Thailand and Malaysia of…
- 20/06 - Obama Iraq strategy receives mixed response in US
- 11/06 - Virginia primary election no cup of tea for Eric Cantor
- 03/06 - Europe waits to see if 'less is more' with Obama's…
- 29/05 - Hillary Clinton creates mega-buzz with "Hard Choices"
- 08/05 - Obama promises recovery help in tornado-ravaged Arkansas
- 28/04 - Bush or Romney again? US Republicans struggle to find a Clinton challenger
- 04/04 - Ukraine crisis: Obama signs bill on sanctions and loan guarantees
- 04/04 - US Senate votes to declassify CIA 'torture' report
- 27/03 - Obama in Rome: Culture, politics and a meeting with the Pope
- 25/03 - NEWS + - Restoring the trans-Atlantic relationship on Obama's visit to…
- 21/03 - THE NETWORK - Reaching for the reset button in a time of crisis
- 20/03 - US expands its sanctions on Russians
- 04/03 - Washington warns Moscow to change course on Ukraine or face economic…
- 28/02 - US tells Russia to show its Ukrainian promise is sincere
- 12/02 - Libertarian Paul sues Obama and his security chiefs for Fourth Amendment…
- 10/02 - France's President Hollande begins three day state visit in US
- 10/02 - US-France: Obama and Hollande talk up an 'alliance transformed'
- 10/02 - Obama and Hollande call for "ambitious" global climate change…
- 07/02 - Nuland: No comment on private conversation about EU and Ukraine
- 02/02 - US: New "Bridgegate" allegations push Christie closer to political disaster
- 29/01 - NEWS + - Obama's foreign policy for 2014
- 29/01 - Obama vows to go it alone over 'middle class reforms' despite…
- 28/01 - Obama: White House worries whether America still listening
- 17/01 - Obama set to outline curbs on NSA programmes
- 17/01 - Obama prepares to announce NSA spy programme review
- 14/01 - US: Scandal-plagued Republican Governor tries to move on
- 02/01 - NEWS + - Bill Clinton swears in Bill de Blasio as New York mayor – nocomment
- 02/01 - New York's new mayor Bill de Blasio sworn in
- 28/12 - US judge rules that NSA phone surveillance is lawful
- 17/12 - Kerry downplays dispute with China in East China Sea
- 13/12 - Breakthrough budget passed in US House of Representatives
- 13/11 - USA: Republicans keep pounding Christie ahead of 2016 election
- 07/11 - Christie already under fire from conservative Republican rivals
- 30/10 - NSA chief says organisation at centre of spy row acts within the law
- 28/10 - US admits need for 'additional constraints on how we gather…
- 22/10 - NEWS + - Obama catches fainting pregnant woman – nocomment
- 16/10 - U.S. Senate finally breaks political deadlock over debt ceiling
- 16/10 - The Tea Party's radically conservative view of America
- 07/10 - Brights spots in US shutdown ordeal: Americans make an effort
- 07/10 - Libya complains to Washington over "kidnapping" of al Qaeda…
- 03/10 - Obama slams 'obsessive' Republicans for government shutdown
- 03/10 - NEWS + - US govt shutdown: Day 2 – nocomment
- 01/10 - National parks hard hit as US government shuts down
- 04/09 - Code Pink
- 11/07 - Sharp divides over US immigration bill in House of Representatives
- 02/07 - NEWS + - How angry are the Europeans really, over the US spying on them?
- 01/07 - Obama 'deeply humbled' by trip to Mandela prison
- 30/06 - Obama 'humbled' by visit to Mandela's former jail cell…
- 30/06 - Ecuador's Correa says Snowden has not been given asylum
- 30/06 - Robben Island Obama's final stop off in South Africa
- 30/06 - US calls on Ecuador to reject Snowden asylum request
- 29/06 - Obama hails Mandela's inspirational effect
- 28/06 - Obama's emotional visit to former slave trade fort in Senegal
- 28/06 - US Senate passes landmark immigration reform bill
- 26/06 - Obama launches long-awaited climate plan
- 20/06 - Obama trip to Berlin: style over substance?
- 19/06 - Obama calls for US-Russia nuclear arms cuts
- 19/06 - One-time 'superstar' Obama returns to Berlin as a mere…
- 18/06 - US presidents and their famous Berlin speeches
- 29/05 - Michele Bachman's spectacular fall – Tea Party firebrand retires
- 21/05 - Protesters greet Myanmar leader Sein in US
- 10/05 - Intelligence systems failed to alert US about Boston Bombers
- 09/05 - No Assad in Syria transition – US
- 30/04 - Obama renews efforts to shut down Guantanamo
- 26/04 - US presidents turn out for opening of George W. Bush library
- 17/04 - Ricin poison letter sent to US Senator
- 10/04 - Obama seeks budget deal with Republicans
- 10/04 - Obama: budget sticking resumes
- 08/04 - US presses for more growth in Europe
- 07/04 - US Sec of State John Kerry urges Turkey and Israel to heal their rift


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The best thing about One Day…
When Emma leaves Dex in her bed but first turns on Revolution by the Beatles.
Jim Sturgiss (Dex) sang Revolution in Across the Universe.
Mind = Blown
— Anne Hathaway: Not just a celebrity, but the younger sister of a gay man. (via jungleferret)
(Source: wrappedupinwords)
Both of the Princess Diaries movies were produced by Whitney Houston.
No way!
I had no idea!
Anne Hathaway
Accidentally fell off of her chair during her audition for the role of the klutzy princess in The Princess Diaries. She was hired on the spot.
Anne Hathaway Almost Starred As Christine in 2004's "Phantom of the Opera" opposite Gerard Butler.
Emmy Rossum got the part.
(Source: annehathawayobsession)
Anne was originally cast for the lead role of Allison in the 2007 summer blockbuster Knocked Up, but she allegedly backed out when she found out about the graphic birthing scenes in the movie. She was replaced by Katherine Heigl.
Why Annie? Why?!! You would've rocked that movie! Why did you have to pass on it??!
For her 2006 film The Devil Wears Prada, there is a part where Anne's character attends a formal event for her job. They wanted to top off her outfit with a tiara, Princess Diaries style, but Anne only agreed to do it if her character could scream "F*ck no!" and throw the tiara at the wall. A flower was placed in her hair instead.


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Amber Pine St has a Walk Score of 23 out of 100. This location is a Car-Dependent neighborhood so almost all errands require a car.
This location is in the Summerlin North neighborhood in Las Vegas. Nearby parks include The Arbors Tennis and Play Park and Crossings Park.
Nearby schools include Palo Verde High School, Sig Rogich Middle School and John W Bonner Elementary School.
The closest grocery stores are Mission Foods, Albertsons and My Healthy Meal.
Nearby coffee shops include Starbucks, Tropical Smoothie Cafe and Starbucks. Nearby restaurants include Pei Wei Asian Diner, Pei Wei Asian Diner and Distill.
Amber Pine St is near Caesars Entertainment Headquarters, MGM Resorts International Headquarters and Las Vegas Sands Headquarters.
There are some bike lanes and the terrain is flat as a pancake. Amber Pine St is somewhat bikeable, there is minimal bike infrastructure.


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Word: ấu trĩ
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Let us help you find the right one.
Call 954-759-7400 for assistance, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.
Broward Health Imperial Point's Man Van is taking men's health screenings across Broward. Find out more »
Broward Health offers a wide range of programs to improve the health of the people of Broward County, including: lectures, screenings and outreach, senior services, maternal and child health, school health, HIV/AIDS care, homeless services and more.
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WEDNESDAY, June 4, 2014 (HealthDay News) -- Pregnant women with high blood pressure who also snore are at high risk for obstructive sleep apnea, a new study suggests.
Researchers cautioned that these women should be screened for the sleep disorder, to avoid complications during pregnancy and delivery.
"Hypertensive pregnant women who report snoring should be evaluated for obstructive sleep apnea since sleep apnea can be treated during pregnancy," study author Louise O'Brien, an associate professor at the University of Michigan's Sleep Disorders Center, said in a university news release. She is also an adjunct associate professor in the department of obstetrics & gynecology at the U-M medical school.
Obstructive sleep apnea is a sleep disorder that can cause blood oxygen levels to drop during the night. The telltale sign of this condition is snoring during the night. Obstructive sleep apnea affects up to one-third of women by the last few months of pregnancy, the study authors noted.
The researchers reported that 50 percent of pregnant women who snore and have high blood pressure (or "hypertension") may have the sleep disorder and not know it. Even if they don't snore, 25 percent of pregnant women with high blood pressure could also have undiagnosed obstructive sleep apnea.
Obstructive sleep apnea is linked to serious health issues that could negatively affect women and their babies, the study team warned.
"We know that habitual snoring is linked with poor pregnancy outcomes for both mother and child, including increased risk of C-sections and smaller babies," explained O'Brien, who is also a member of the Institute for Healthcare Policy and Innovation.
Aside from a greater risk for smaller babies or delivering by C-section, the investigators found that pregnant women with obstructive sleep apnea are at greater risk for preeclampsia -- a dangerous condition involving extremely high blood pressure and protein in the urine.
More information
The U.S. National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute has more about sleep apnea.
SOURCE: University of Michigan Health System, news release, June 2, 2014


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Salty, smoky deliciousness in a strip. Bacon-Fest Virginia, Roanoke's first festival dedicated to bacon, happens tomorrow from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. in the same parking lot area as the Chili Cook-off. Sample bacon-themed breakfasts, lunches, dinners, desserts, and drinks.
The America Works Labor Day Parade and Festival is happening on Saturday, as well! The parade begins at 11 a.m. and runs from Jefferson Street to Campbell Avenue. After that, beginning at noon, join the Labor Day Festival on Franklin Road at SunTrust Plaza.
And don't forget 202 Market's Un-Official End of Summer Luau Party on Sunday featuring no cover charge, live music by Mohamed Bhana, a pair of very talented late-night DJs, tons of prizes including one from Fox 21/27, and a portion of proceeds benefiting TAP: Total Action against Poverty. It starts at 7 p.m. and keeps going all night.
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Stories Tagged with "new urbanism"
2008 - 1 story
Darius Sollohub, associate professor at NJIT's New Jersey School of Architecture, is featured today on The Daily Newarker community blog. During the 31-minute interview, Sollohub provides some insight into the New Urbanism movement and how Newark's future is being guided from an urban design perspective. >>


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"I generalized rashly: That is what kills political writing, this absurd pretence that you are delivering a great utterance. You never do. You are just a puzzled man making notes about what you think. You are not building the Pantheon, then why act like a graven image? You are drawing sketches in the sand which the sea will wash away."
- Walter Lippmann


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I began learning about leadership and organization effectiveness in the early '80s from Ford, as they worked with Dr. W. Edwards Deming to implement their version of the Toyota Production System. I have worked with over 100 manufacturing companies, as well as local and state governments, not-for-profit organizations, and whole communities to help them create a shared vision of an ideal future and move toward it. I have taught people in a variety of industries to identify opportunities for improvement and apply commonly-used tools to realize the improvements. Most recently, my work involved implementing improvements in a public health setting, where there was some resistance to using "business" tools in a not-for profit environment. As a result, I began to look for health care organizations that were doing remarkable things in terms of improvement of quality of care, to see what I could learn from them about how to repackage my presentation. What I learned was that everything impressive seemed to be connected to a single not-for-profit organization, the Institute for Healthcare Improvement. Their vast online resources included everything I needed to proceed, without even modifying anything, and it was all available for free. I began to learn more about IHI and its leader, the much embattled Don Berwick. I can understand why some people have had difficulty with Dr. Berwick, but I can also assure you that what that organization is doing (and teaching providers to do) is exactly what needs to be done to both improve the quality of care and reduce health care costs. There is nothing magical about it; they are just applying what Dr. Deming taught, which has been proven time and again by Toyota, Ford, and thousands of other successful organizations around the world. And the IHI is having a considerable positive impact on the ACA approach to quality improvement and cost reduction, as the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) have put the IHI resources to good use.
Here are just a few of the lessons learned by business that are now being applied in the ACA:
- Preventing a problem is always less costly than reacting to it later.
- If you truly improve quality, costs go down.
- Quality doesn't improve without involvement of all relevant stakeholders, especially customers (in this case, patients; with ACA you are likely to have more of a voice).
- Improvement without data is nearly impossible, and standardization of repetitive processes enables data collection.
- Preventive care significantly reduces lost time from work, which is good for business.
These key principles of the Affordable Care Act should put to rest the argument that it will increase health care costs. That is, if the business titans who are decrying its allegedly harmful effect on business have learned anything about management and are willing to admit it.
Further reading from recent Time magazine articles:
Health Insurance Is for Everyone http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2109128,00.html
The Diverted Ambulance: How ER Crowding Kills http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2079935,00.html
Simple Design: What Health Care Can Learn from a TV Remote Control http://healthland.time.com/2012/06/01/smart-design-what-health-care-can-learn-from-a-tv-remote-control/
Post-HMO Health Care: Are ACOs the Answer? http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2074816,00.html