text: Definitive Technology DI 5.5LCR In-wall multi-purpose home theater speaker Zoom Front with grille removed Back Grille Side Side with grille removed Photos Videos Item #: 735DI55LCR Review Summary 2 people say In Stock Free Crutchfield lifetime tech support Free Shipping Your price $449.00 each Add to cart + Add to wishlist Email me alerts for this product Buy this item and earn up to 449 Rewards points See more offers and ways to save Special Financing Available x By buying this product you'll earn up to 449 Rewards points. When you sign up for a Crutchfield account, you'll be enrolled in Crutchfield Rewards. You'll earn one point for every dollar you spend on gear from us. You can turn your points into Rewards Cards that you can use toward future purchases. You can sign up for an account now, or after you complete your purchase (you'll get credit for the points either way). Sign up for a Crutchfield account Overview Details Customer Reviews Q&A Articles & Videos Accessories Our take on the Definitive Technology DI 5.5LCR by Tara W. Definitive Technology designed this unobtrusive in-wall speaker specifically for premium sound quality in home theater environments. Install a pair on either side of your TV and use one below or above your TV as a center channel. Each speaker installs flush in your wall. With its paintable, low-profile grille and hidden flange, it practically disappears in your room. The DI 5.5LCR pairs a pivoting 1" aluminum tweeter with two 5-1/4" drivers for precise highs, full-bodied bass, and impressive dynamic range. The pivoting tweeter allows you to aim the sound directly toward your listening area, so you can fine-tune your system's sound. Building a system You can use the DI 5.5LCR in a home theater system, or as part of a multi-room music system. It's voice-matched with Definitive Technology's Mythos and Bipolar speaker lines, so you can mix and match. An optional Definitive Technology Di 5.5LCR rough-in bracket is recommended for installing this speaker in new construction (brackets sold in pairs). Got wire? Most speakers don't include any. Learn more about in-wall wiring at the Crutchfield Learning Center. Shop our selection of in-wall speaker wire. Did you know? Your new speakers will probably sound better after several weeks of use than they do right out of the box. That's because the material surrounding the woofers will loosen up, allowing the drivers to move more fully. Definitive Technology estimates a break-in period of 24 to 48 hours of playback before the speakers will deliver optimum sound quality. For more information and helpful tips, check out this article from Definitive's website about conditioning your speakers. See more info on this item Highlights:frequency response 28-30,000 Hz1" pivoting pure aluminum dome tweetertwo 5-1/4" woofersDisappearing In-wall speaker design, including hidden flange and low-profile grille3-position EQ switch helps tailor the sound to your roomhandles up to 250 wattssensitivity 89 dB8-ohm impedancepaintable white matte grillemagnetic grille for easy installationcutout dimensions: 6-7/16" x 14-3/8"mounting depth: 3-1/8"warranty: 5 yearsOur 60-day money-back guarantee Priced each Hands-on research from the Crutchfield Labs (what are the Labs?) Features and specs chart | What's in the box? | In-depth notes Features and Specs Enclosure Type In-wall Video Shielded No Tweeter Dome Midrange Size --- Woofer Size 5.25 Woofer Composition Polymer Woofer Surround Rubber Power Range (Watts) 10-250 Sensitivity 89 dB Impedance (Ohms) 8 Frequency Response 28-30kHz Connector Type Spring clips Bi-Amp Inputs No Parts Warranty 5 Years Labor Warranty 5 Years Product Research What's in the box? Download owner's manual Dual 5.25" in-wall L/C/R speaker White grille (paintable) 6 Mounting screws (installed) Cut-out template Owner's Manual Online Product Registration card Our Product Research Team At Crutchfield, you'll get detailed, accurate information that's hard to find elsewhere. That's because we have our own in-house Product Research team — they open the box, verify contents, check the owner's manual, and record dimensions, features and specs. We stay on top of new products and technologies to help people make informed choices. Overview: The Definitive Technology Disappearing In-Wall loudspeaker (DI Series) offers high-quality sound from a speaker that is barely visible when installed in a wall or ceiling. The Definitive DI Series incorporates BDSS drivers, a pivoting tweeter, and integrated flanges behind an unobtrusive grille to provide audiophile-grade sound quality with an almost invisible appearance. Features Mounting Options Features Disappearing In-Wall Design: The DI 5.5LCR features Definitive Technology's Disappearing In-Wall Design. The mounting flange thickness of the in-wall loudspeaker is no more than 2.5mm (0.099") and is completely covered by the grille that stands a mere 3.5mm (approx 0.145") from the wall surface. The grille is "micro-perf", that while presenting an opaque appearance, actually has more open area than typical perforated metal grilles allowing the sound to pass through with less interference and better fidelity. Behind the metal grille is an acoustically transparent proprietary cloth scrim that effectively blacks the dark "shadow" of the black speaker parts from showing through the grille. Pivoting Aluminum Dome Tweeter with Waveguide: The DI Series in-wall loudspeaker uses Definitive Technology's proprietary ceramic-coated annealed aluminum 1" dome tweeter. The DI 5.5LCR tweeter is post mounted, and the tweeter housing is specially smoothed and shaped to use it as an extremely effective low-diffraction waveguide. The aluminum dome tweeter features a pivoting design which allows you to focus the sound toward or away from your listening area depending on the application. BDSS Drivers: The DI 5.5LCR uses two 5.25" BDSS drivers for wide-bandwidth accurate frequency response, broad dispersion, low distortion, and maximum detail retrieval. Each 5.25" BDSS driver cone is supported by specially tuned soft rubber surrounds at both the outer and inner edges. The double surrounds allow the cone to have longer excursion without distortion. As bass output is a function of both a cone's diameter and excursion, the higher excursion BDSS system brings the benefit of higher bass output from smaller drivers. The DI 5.5LCR's dual 5.25" BDSS drivers have the bass output and dynamic range of a typical 8.0" driver. Linkwitz-Riley Crossover Network: The Definitive Technology DI 5.5LCR's second order (12dB/octave) Linkwitz-Riley crossover offers a smooth frequency and phase transition from driver to tweeter for natural midrange response and excellent off-axis performance. A Zobel network flattens the impedance curve of the speaker making it easier for today's digital amplifiers to drive the speakers. Custom tight-tolerance (+/- 5%) components are used throughout the crossover for superb unit-to-unit performance consistency. Superior metal film capacitors are used in the high-pass section and the Zobel network for extended high frequency response. Oversize inductors (coils) avoid saturation thereby maintaining the wide dynamic range capabilities of the driver. Environmental EQ: The Environmental EQ switch (on top-frame of speaker) provides a 1dB broad bandwidth tweeter output lift or cut to compensate for highly absorptive or reflective acoustic environments. AeroRing: The dimpled AeroRings around the 5.25" drivers are soft Sanoprene rubber and serves several important functions. First, it damps the basket/flange assembly nearest its thinnest part (the flange) to prevent resonance. Second it prevents the grille from rattling in the unlikely event that it makes contact with the speaker frame. It also provides a smooth transition for the waveform coming off the cone. Similar to the dimples on a golf ball that reduce turbulence to aid in longer flight, the dimples on the AeroRing promote smooth "laminar" air flow over the surface thereby reducing diffraction effects. The DI Series in-wall loudspeakers sound clear, natural, and disperse their sound over a wide area. PolyStone Basket: The driver basket, mounting flange, and mounting system of the DI 5.5LCR is one piece of cast PolyStone; Definitive's exclusive formulation of polymers and minerals that combine the rigidity and strength of metal with the resonance damping properties of plastics. As a result of the one-piece mounting system, the DI 5.5LCR offers increased strength, a compact size, and maximized cone area. Besides being more space efficient than multi-piece construction, it also contributes to the superior sound quality of the DI Series speakers. Connections: The DI 5.5LCR features a pair of heavy-duty, gold-plated, spring-loaded wire terminals that have oversized holes to accept up to 10 gauge wire. Definitive's GaussGrip System: Definitive's GaussGrip system securely holds the grille of the in-wall loudspeaker in place with powerful magnets. Simply lay the grille over the speaker and its secure. Taking off the grille is just as easy and fast; no special tools that can chip the grille paint are required. All you need to remove the grille is your fingers. Paintable Grille: The DI Series in-wall loudspeaker's white "micro-perf" cloth grille can be spray painted to match the color of your wall or ceiling without any loss of sound quality. Simply remove the grille from the speaker and place it on a drop cloth, newspaper, or plastic sheet and spray paint it with canned spray paint that closely matches the desired finish/color; or with indoor latex paint using an airbrush or spray gun (available at home improvement stores). The paint must be diluted to a 6:1 ratio of latex paint to water. Do not remove the backing cloth (scrim). Apply the paint in a series of thin coats sprayed at 45-60 degrees from the grille surface, allowing each coat to fully cure before applying additional coats. To ensure that the paint distribution is evenly applied, each coat should be applied from 4 different directions (N,S,E, & W) to ensure an even coverage on the grille. Note: The grille must be spray painted detached from the speaker. Do not paint the grille with a brush or roller. Mounting Options Applications: The DI 5.5LCR can be used as stereo speakers for music or as front, center, and/or surround speakers in your home theater system. Mounting: The DI 5.5LCR can be mounted in-wall using the integrated rotating clamps and six mounting screws. A cutout template is supplied to help you cut a 6-7/16" wide x 14-3/8" tall hole. You will need to allow at least 1/2" of space around the cutout and have at least 3-1/8" of clearance for mounting depth (using 1/2" thick mounting surface). You should allow at least 7/8" from the edge of the cutout to nearest obstruction inside the mounting surface. Review this product Submit a review and then enter to win a $500 rewards card Definitive Technology DI 5.5LCR Reviews Average Customer Review: 2 people say: Review this product: Thanks for taking the time to share your experiences about this product. Please be sure to focus your comments on the product itself. Read our Review Guidelines for more information. Review title * Email Your email won't be visible. Please use the email address that is associated with your order. Display name (e.g., JohnD) Your review will be signed using the display name and location * Your location (e.g., Charlottesville, VA) * Your rating Click on a star to rate the overall product on a scale of 1-5 1500 characters left * Your review Attach a YouTube Review Crutchfield Video Review Guidelines Only submit videos that you made or are authorized to use. Do not submit videos that contain music, video or visuals that are copyrighted and belong to someone else. Please see our Review Guidelines for more information. Submit the URL of your YouTube™ video review or product demonstration. e.g., "http://www.youtube.com/v/o79TWHh598U" 500 characters left Pros 500 characters left Cons * Agree to Terms By checking this box you agree your review becomes the property of Crutchfield, that you are over 18 years of age, that you own or have owned this product, and that you are located within the United States or its territories. Please see our Review Guidelines for more information. We reserve the right (but are not obligated to) review all submissions and edit or remove any review in any manner which we deem necessary. Your review should be posted within seven days. Filter by rating: 5 Star: (0) 4 Star: (0) 3 Star: (0) 2 Star: (0) 1 Star: (0) 5 out of 5 Awesome Written By KW, NYC on Monday, May 26, 2014 Crutchfield Customer Review (What's this?) Purchased three to use as Left, Center and Right. The sound quality is amazing. Using with 5.5R back channels and 800 Sub. Could not be any happier. Reasonably priced. Voice clarity is stunning. We use most;ly for TV/Movies. They look fantastic when mounted giving a very clean look. Could not be happier and highly recommend to anyone. Definitive makes amazing products which do not disappoint. Pros: Great sound Clear voices Looks great mounted Cons: None Was this review helpful? Yes | No 4 out of 5 Ceiling Speakers Written By Philly H, Newport Beach CA on Monday, March 25, 2013 Crutchfield Customer Review (What's this?) High quality and great appearance...........very clean and tusy. I put these in my very modern, minimalist living room and they fill the room with quality sound. I am jsut using them for sound...not in a home theatre application, but woul be fine for that Pros: Appearance, ease of installation.....grills are very nice.. sound is quality for the price I recommend Cons: A little weak on the low end, but what do you expect from a smaller speaker? Was this review helpful? Yes | No Add accessories for the Definitive Technology DI 5.5LCR Add Accessories Set the volume level in your remote location without going back and forth from room to room. See all categories & accessories Set the volume level in your remote location without going back and forth from room to room. In-wall Volume Controls UL-listed speaker wire is designed to be run through walls and is building code compliant. Most speakers don't include speaker wire. In-wall Speaker Wire Install these before your drywall goes up to mark your speaker locations for your builder, so you won't need to cut holes later. In-wall/in-ceiling Brackets A speaker selector will let multiple pairs of speakers act like just one to your receiver. Speaker Selectors & Distributors Have your speakers installed by qualified professionals. Professional Installation Niles SVC100K Sliding stereo volume control with impedance magnification Your Price: $129.99 Add to Cart Russound ALTX-WIRI-2D Electronic volume control with IR sensor and impedance magnification Your Price: $159.00 Add to Cart Niles VCS100K Stereo volume control with impedance magnification 4 people say Your Price: $99.99 Add to Cart AudioQuest FLX-14/2 14-Gauge 2-Conductor In-Wall Speaker Cable UL-approved for in-wall use; direct-burial rated (125 feet) 51 people say Your Price: $129.99 Add to Cart AudioQuest FLX-14/4 14-Gauge 4-Conductor In-Wall Speaker Cable UL-approved for in-wall use; direct-burial rated (125 feet) Options 125 feet-$219.99 250 feet-$439.99 UL-approved for in-wall use; direct-burial rated (125 feet) UL-approved for in-wall use; direct-burial rated (250 feet) 2 people say Your Price: $219.99 Add to Cart AudioQuest FLX-16/2 16-Gauge 2-Conductor In-Wall Speaker Cable UL-approved for in-wall use; direct-burial rated (125 feet) 28 people say Your Price: $99.99 Add to Cart AudioQuest FLX-16/4 16-Gauge 4-Conductor In-Wall Speaker Cable UL-approved for in-wall use; direct-burial rated (125 feet) 7 people say Your Price: $159.99 Add to Cart Definitive DI 5.5LCR Rough-in Brackets Pre-construction brackets for Definitive Technology DI 5.5LCR in-wall speakers Your Price: $60.00 Add to Cart Russound Flexbox For in-wall speakers Your Price: $199.99 Add to Cart Niles SS-4 4-pair speaker selector 23 people say Your Price: $129.99 Add to Cart Niles SS-6 6-pair speaker selector 8 people say Your Price: $174.99 Add to Cart Russound SS-4.2 4-pair speaker selector 6 people say Your Price: $119.00 Add to Cart Russound SS-6.2 6-pair speaker selector 1 person says Your Price: $159.00 Add to Cart Niles SSVC-2 2-pair speaker selector with volume control 4 people say Your Price: $249.99 Add to Cart Niles SSVC-4 4-pair speaker selector with volume control 7 people say Your Price: $399.99 Add to Cart Niles SSVC-6 6-pair speaker selector with volume control 6 people say Your Price: $474.99 Add to Cart Russound SDB-2.1 2-pair speaker and source selector with volume control 1 person says Your Price: $199.00 Add to Cart Russound SDB-4.1 High-power 4-pair speaker selector with volume control 1 person says Your Price: $399.99 Add to Cart Russound SDB-6.1 High-power 6-pair speaker selector with volume control Your Price: $499.99 Add to Cart Niles VCS HUB8 8-speaker pair connecting block 6 people say Your Price: $79.99 Add to Cart Premium 5-Speaker Home Theater Installation 4 people say Your Price: $369.99 Add to Cart Premium 2-Speaker Home Theater Installation 1 person says Your Price: $239.99 Add to Cart Premium 7-Speaker Home Theater Installation Your Price: $419.99 Add to Cart Premium 6-Speaker Home Theater Installation Your Price: $379.99 Add to Cart Why choose SquareTrade? The #1-Rated Protection Plan Thousands of people have reviewed SquareTrade Protection Plans — and made us #1. 5-Day Service Guarantee & Free Shipping We'll repair or replace your item in five business days or less after we've received it, or your plan is free. And, as always, we pay for all shipping. Protection from Normal, Everyday Use Repairing your average mechanical or electrical failure can cost as much as buying a new device. With SquareTrade, you're covered — including parts and labor. For a more in-depth review and enhanced detailed information on the Definitive Technology DI 5.5LCR, please visit the Crutchfield website product page (/ISEO-rccbcspd/p_735DI55LCR/Definitive-Technology-DI-5-5LCR.html ). Find the gear that's right for you Ask an expert Your Crutchfield Advisor knows the gear inside and out. Call 1.888.955.6000 Email Compare with other Definitive Technology models Definitive DI 6.5LCRExperience even deeper lowsIn StockThe Definitive DI 6.5LCR features two 6-1/2" woofers for bass response down to 26 Hz.View All Product Information$549.00Definitive Technology DI 5.5LCRIn-wall speaker 4.5 out of 5: In StockThe Definitive Technology DI 5.5LCR offers: 1" aluminum dome tweeter and two 5-1/4" woofersfrequency response 28-30,000 Hzpaintable, low-profile grilleView All Product Information$449.00Definitive DI 6.5LCRIn-wall speaker In StockThe Definitive DI 6.5LCR offers: 1" aluminum dome tweeter and two 6-1/2" woofersfrequency response 26-30,000 Hzpaintable, low-profile grilleView All Product Information$549.00 You are hereDefinitive Technology DI 5.5LCRCompare with $449.00 Definitive DI 6.5LCRGet details $549.00 × Front with grille removed Back Grille Side Side with grille removed Searches related to the Definitive Technology DI 5.5LCR In-wall multi-purpose home theater speaker Definitive Technology Definitive Technology In-wall Speakers In-wall Speakers under $500 Definitive Technology DI 5.5LCR reviews Definitive Technology DI 5.5LCR vs Definitive DI 6.5LCR Definitive Technology DI 5.5LCR vs Polk Audio MC65 Definitive Technology DI 5.5LCR vs Polk Audio RC55i Definitive Technology DI 5.5LCR vs Monitor Audio CP-WT140LCR Definitive Technology DI 5.5LCR vs Monitor Audio CP-WT150


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I went out to the 15 acres to do some recon. I have decided that my little lease is a horrible place to hunt.
ROCKS AND CEDARS!!! Being sneaky is out of the question. Not even a NINJA can make it through this quietly.
cedar 2.jpg
And then you have this @#$! There is no tree stand, there is no pop up blind, there is no brush blind. I did find a better spot for my tripod and a decent tree with up close and personal shooting range. Too close probably.

subset: commoncrawl


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The Associates of the Boston Public Library presented the fourteenth annual Literary Lights for Children awards ceremony and tea party on Sunday, September 30, in the library's historic Bates Hall Reading Room. The award winners—Kevin Hawkes, Christopher Paolini, Mitali Perkins, and Gary Schmidt—were honored for their extraordinary contributions to children's literature. The authors chosen as this year's "Literary Lights" have collectively won dozens of major awards for their inspiring books written for children and young adults.
Literary Lights for Children is held each year to raise awareness of children's literature, promote literacy, honor children's authors, and raise much needed funding for the Boston Public Library's children's services and special collections.
The Associates of the Boston Public Library is an independent, nonprofit organization dedicated to conserving the Boston Public Library's special collections of rare books, manuscripts, and other items of significant historic interest.
Website: www.TheAssociates.org
Facebook: www.facebook.com/AssociatesBPL
Twitter: www.twitter.com/AssociatesBPL
All photos by Roger Farrington


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I made these a few months ago and I think orange would work beautifully. In fact, I think you have inspired me.
I forsee some orange poppyseed muffins in my future? Lots of snow and only oranges and tangerines in the house. Its still citrus, right?
Questions about muffins? Ask them here!


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Celiac Disease Health Center
Celiac Disease
How Is Celiac Disease Treated?
If you have celiac disease, you can't eat any foods that contain gluten (including wheat, rye, barley, and oats). Dropping gluten from your diet usually improves the condition within a few days and eventually ends the symptoms of the disease. In most cases, the villi are healed within six months.
You'll have to remain on this diet for the rest of your life; eating any gluten at all can damage the intestine and restart the problem.
Some people with celiac disease have so much damage to their intestines that a gluten-free diet will not help them. These patients may have to receive nutritional supplements through an IV.
Living With a Gluten-Free Diet
A gluten-free diet will be a big change in your life. You have to rethink your eating habits, including what you buy for lunch, what you eat at parties, or what you snack on. Following a gluten-free diet means you cannot eat many dietary "staples," including pasta, cereals, and many processed foods that contain grains. You will need to be careful when eating packaged foods, as they may contain gluten. Always read the ingredients of packaged foods and when eating in restaurants, ask about the ingredients of a dish before ordering.
But, just because you have celiac disease, it doesn't mean you can't enjoy a well-balanced diet. For instance, bread and pasta made from other types of flour (potato, rice, corn, or soy) are available. Food companies and some grocery stores also carry gluten-free bread and products. You can also eat fresh foods that have not been artificially processed, such as fruits, vegetables, meats and fish, since these do not contain gluten.
A dietitian, a health care professional who specializes in food and nutrition, can help you with the gluten-free diet. There are also support groups that can help people with celiac disease make the adjustment.
WebMD Medical Reference


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Main Content
Your tiniest fan will look great showing her support in the Reebok® infant 3-piece creeper set. Each is crafted with cotton and decorated with different NFL® team graphics, while snap closures offer easy on and off.
- 100% Cotton fabric
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Special event items are produced by manufacturers only after the outcome of a game or event. These are advanced sale items and will ship immediately after they are received in our warehouse.
Manufacturer direct items are shipped directly from the manufacturer. These items are not available for international or expedited shipping.
Customized items can be personalized with options such as your name, your favorite number, and/or designs. Some options may be limited by league rules.


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While discussing the concept of 'Peak Oil' at work today, I offered that it made no sense to to invest in an expensive high mileage car (for example) in order to 'save oil'. Any oil you saved would just be used by someone else at today's low price and - in the meantime - you would put yourself at a competetive disadvantage by paying more for energy than you needed to.
The other person offered that this was an example of the "tragedy of the commons" since everyone was incentivized to use the oil and no one was incentivized to conserve it. Although I couldn't argue that it certainly looked the same, I always thought that the "commons" argument pointed to a problem with property rights - that common ownership was at the root of these sorts of problems. However, it doesn't look like oil supplies - in general - suffer from a common ownership problem.
So I'm confused with how to classify the whole situation, is it:
1) An example of the "commons" tragedy? But does that imply that "commons" is more than just property rights? or that oil supplies have ownership issues?
2) An example of something else with similar consequences? perhaps some sort of game theory?
3) A problem with the argument as a whole? (by assuming peak oil is true, am I putting some false constraint on the issue?)
Any help appreciated - even a link somewhere - I'm not sure if this is a "commons" issue or not.
This is not just a discussion for geology. Peak Oil is an interesting concept, but as with any resource, the key rationing device is the price. Conservation of oil can and will be dictated by the price alone. What seems very strange to me is that oil continues to be exclusively denominated by it's price relative to the US dollar. There are many countries throughout the world that have suggested oil be denominated relative to another currency.
What's also very interesting is that other forms of energy are denominated relative to a barrel of oil equivalent (BOE) and our friends at the IRS define BOE in terms of joules (J). But why does the IRS determine this and not a convention held by the market or at least the Department of Weights and Measures? The problem with defining oil in terms of joules is that it assumes the conversion rate of oil is constant and that there's no possibility for efficiency gains. Efficiency gains in the burn rate of oil would effectively increase the amount of oil by increasing the energy derived from converting it to another form of energy.
Peak Oil could be a construct of this thinking that the energy derived from oil is constant. But it is certainly not. So why does the government hold it constant?
Two theories:
(1) the government creates the Peak Oil myth to declare the supply of oil will run out in the short-run. Many DOE estimates over the past century have declared we will run out of oil, only to have to push the estimate back with new discoveries. Efficiency gains are like new oil finds. But the myth helps to drive the push for government interefernce in the energy markets: conservation efforts, taxes, and "investments" in back-end (consumer) efficiency technologies.
(2) the Peak Oil myth is a way of controlling the means of production. Declaring that if we running out of oil justifies the capture of land to prevent from being used for E&P operations. Preventing E&P limits the supply and increases the price of oil and the inputs costs to other production. Preventing input costs from falling prevents the efficency gains throughout the rest of the economy and the corresponding fall in wholesale prices (their dreaded deflationary event in Keynesianism).
Peak Oil is a Myth
Ask any proponent of the Peak Oil Theory what the exact amount of fossil fuels the earth contains. Without knowing this amount no rational claim of Peak Oil can be made and it is thus a Myth as currently proposed.
The only entity preventing further exploration and extraction of fossil fuels is the state and the only entity negatively effecting the actual cost of fossil fuels is the state through taxes and regulations. Only the state can cause shortages of resources and any energy "crisis". In a pure free energy market all land would be available for energy production at a free market price, thus availability would be limited by cost, technology and of course actual supply. Say a hypothetical obtainable limit to our demand was reached in actual supply, long before this was reached prices of fossil fuels would rise, once fossil fuel prices rose above what other competing free market energy sources were, these cheaper energy sources would be adopted on their own. All without government intervention. The government was not needed to switch away from horses to cars. But we have no such scenario since the state is artificially creating supply shortages by restricting land access through regulations. The state is also artificially increasing energy costs above free market rates with taxes and regulations. In essence the state is creating a Peak Oil scenario to benefit the green lobby. But no such thing exists even with known reserves:
Myth: The World is Running Out of Oil (5min)
Despite Popular Belief, The World is Not Running Out of Oil, Scientist Says (Science Daily)It's a myth that the world's oil is running out (The Times, UK)Myth: The World is Running Out of Oil (ABC News)No Evidence of Precipitous Fall on Horizon for World Oil Production (Cambridge Energy Research Associates)Oil: Never Cry Wolf—Why the Petroleum Age Is Far from over (Science)Oil, Oil Everywhere... (The Wall Street Journal)The World Has Plenty of Oil (The Wall Street Journal)
Reserves:- 1.3 Trillion barrels of 'proven' oil reserves exist worldwide (EIA)- 1.8 to 6 Trillion barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Oil-Shale Reserves (DOE)- 986 Billion barrels of oil are estimated using Coal-to-liquids (CTL) conversion of U.S. Coal Reserves (DOE)- 173 to 315 Billion (1.7-2.5 Trillion potential) barrels of oil are estimated in the Oil Sands of Alberta, Canada (Alberta Department of Energy)- 100 Billion barrels of heavy oil are estimated in the U.S. (DOE)- 90 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in the Arctic (USGS)- 89 Billion barrels of immobile oil are estimated recoverable using CO2 injection in the U.S. (DOE)- 86 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf (MMS)- 60 to 80 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in U.S. Tar Sands (DOE)- 32 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in ANWR, NPRA and the Central North Slope in Alaska (USGS)- 31.4 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in the East Greenland Rift Basins Province (USGS)- 7.3 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in the West Greenland–East Canada Province (USGS)-
4.3 Billion (167 Billion potential) barrels of oil are estimated in the
U.S. Bakken shale formation in North Dakota and Montana (USGS)- 3.65 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Devonian-Mississippian Bakken Formation (USGS)- 1.6 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Eastern Great Basin Province (USGS)- 1.3 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Permian Basin Province (USGS)- 1.1 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Powder River Basin Province (USGS)- 990 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Portion of the Michigan Basin (USGS)- 393 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. San Joaquin Basin Province of California (USGS)- 214 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Illinois Basin (USGS)- 172 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Yukon Flats of East-Central Alaska (USGS)- 131 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Southwestern Wyoming Province (USGS)- 109 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Montana Thrust Belt Province (USGS)- 104 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Denver Basin Province (USGS)- 98.5 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Bend Arch-Fort Worth Basin Province (USGS)- 94 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Hanna, Laramie, Shirley Basins Province (USGS)For Comparison:- 260 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in Saudi Arabia (EIA)- 80 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in Venezuela (EIA)
"Anarchism misunderstands the real nature of man. It would be practicable only in a world of angels and saints" - Ludwig von Mises
After reading through this thread it seems to me like many do not understand what exactly peak oil theory is based on....I think many would benefit with these videos linked earlier on in the thread but were obviously ignored:
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/chapter-17a-peak-oil (17 min)
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/chapter-17b-energy-budgeting (12 min)
Peak oil deals with the following FACTS:
1) Oil discoveries peaked in 1964...we have been finding increasingly less and less oil each decade
2) With individual oilfields the production profile (barrels produced in a year vs time) resembles a bell curve with production increasing each successive year until the half-way point whereby production decreases each year (this is a matter of physics and not economics)
3) Because individual fields peak, and our oil discoveries have peaked, the overall production profile will also follow the bell curve shape
4) Therefore we will peak in oil production at some point....most estimates range from already having peaked to as far as 30 years away
Again, I doubt the anti-peak oil theory people will watch the links above, but if you do, and still don't agree with peak oil then please quote this line and state your reasoning. Because after watching the two videos above I don't know how one could refute Peak Oil Theory....So if one is able to I'd like to learn the flaws in my logic. Thanks in advance.
Those are not facts they are assumptions. Over and over, I understand the "theory" very well, except it does not deal in reality. Please show me where I can find the source that gives me the exact amount of fossil fuels on the planet and exactly how they are formed. When you can do that, get back to me.
Peak Oil Theorists are like a Cult, just repeating and repeating the same thing over and over.
I don't see how you can have tragedy of the commons where everyone pays for what they consume and produce.
A tragedy of the commons comes when there are free riders who use a service or resources with no cost to themselves, and thus you have abuse.
My take on the alarmism, is that people can envision a future problem, and demand that the market react NOW. They want green energy NOW. They want electric cars NOW. They want oil prices to rise NOW, regardless of what market pricing tells us about supply and demand.
It doesn't occur to many of these soft-headed folks that we will probably have new solutions or wipe ourselves out with nuclear armageddon long before we use up all of the oil.
Poptech:Those are not facts they are assumptions. Over and over, I understand the "theory" very well, except it does not deal in reality. Please show me where I can find the source that gives me the exact amount of fossil fuels on the planet and exactly how they are formed. When you can do that, get back to me.
Peak Oil Theorists are like a Cult, just repeating and repeating the same thing over and over.
I don't understand the logic in peak oil theory not being valid unless we know the exact amount of fossil fuels on the planet. I would love to hear that argument explained with rational. What we do know, is given CURRENT known levels of oil, we will be hitting peak production in the next 3 decades. We also know that if we were to discover vastly new quantities of oil that could prevent peak oil it would DRAMATICALLY buck the trend of the previous 5 decades of exploration....
I also don't understand the logic in peak oil not being a valid theory because we DON'T know exactly how it is formed. In my opinion this is almost a greater case FOR peak oil as we are running out of something and we don't know how it is created.
What we do know is that there is a dramatic trend of discovering less and less oil each successive year. Therefore our current production will be cutting into our total known reserves. We also know that oil production profiles follow a bell shaped curve due to the physical manner in which they are extracted (pressure decreases and so flow rate decreases).
Much in the way that U.S. oil discoveries peaked in 1930's and then the production of U.S. oil peaked in the 1970's, peak oil theory asserts that because we have peaked our oil discoveries (1964) our production is now going to peak UNLESS we discover MASSIVE new oilfields....which the current trend of the past 5 decades does not appear likely.
Why is it that I'm sure you didn't watch those videos? I genuinely want to learn more about this but currently don't see how your arguments support the statement that peak oil theory is invalid.
Those are not facts they are assumptions.
Those are not facts they are assumptions.
Which of the 4 facts I put above are you saying are assumptions? Is it just number 4? I could perhaps concede that that one is not a fact per se, but are you in anyway contesting facts 1-3?
If you hold facts 1-3 to be valid then it is a perfectly logical deduction to come to the conclusion that a peak in oil production will occur. So again, please specify which of those 3 facts you are calling an assumption.
DPatty:I don't understand the logic in peak oil theory not being valid unless we know the exact amount of fossil fuels on the planet.
You don't understand basic logic? How can you determine something is peaking when you do not know how much of it exists? It is a logical impossibility.
DPatty:I also don't understand the logic in peak oil not being a valid theory because we DON'T know exactly how it is formed.
If you don't know how fossil fuels are formed then other theories are just as valid:
Abiotic Theory:Fuel's Paradise (Wired)Gas and oil may exist in miles-deep wells (The Times, UK)Petroleum From Decay? Maybe Not, Study Says (The New York Times)
You keep repeating the same things over and over, I've seen the videos, I've over a dozen on Peak Oil, none answer my questions and all make wild assumptions. Two things make Peak Oil Theory irrelevant - 1. Free Market Economics and 2.Thermal Depolymerization:
Thermal Depolymerization:Thermal Depolymerization (Video) (7min)Anything Into Oil at $80 a Barrel (Discover Magazine)
DPatty:Why is it that I'm sure you didn't watch those videos?
Over and over and over and over. Peak Oil Cultists search the internet to repeat their hysteria and you are proof of this because you are claiming that no one watches your economically illiterate videos when they talk about the same damn thing I already went over - which you never read.
Thermodynamics and Money (Peter Huber, Ph.D. Mechanical Engineering, MIT)
"The economic value of energy just doesn't
depend very strongly on raw energy content as conventionally measured
in British thermal units. Instead it's determined mainly by the
distance between the BTUs and where you need them, and how densely the
BTUs are packed into pounds of stuff you've got to move, and by the
quality of the technology at hand to move, concentrate, refine and burn
those BTUs, and by how your neighbors feel about carbon, uranium and
windmills. In this entropic universe we occupy, the production of one
unit of high-grade energy always requires more than one unit of
low-grade energy at the outset. There are no exceptions. Put another
way, Eroei--a sophomoric form of thermodynamic accounting--is always
negative and always irrelevant. "Matter-energy" constraints count for
nothing. The "monetary culture" still rules. Thermodynamics And Money"
Sage:Peak oil doesn't really have anything to do with TotC. It's not like the oil is unowned, and everyone is consuming because there are no property rights.
I'm afraid that most oil resources which are today exploited, ARE INDEED UN-OWNED! I.e. they are managed by governments. And government is the greatest "tradgedy of the commons" which ever existed...
If oil is projected to get scarce and hence more expensive in the future, then why does king Fahd pump the hell out of his wells? I'd guess because he won't live forever. And he doesn't want to introduce the privete property rights and market economy necessary for being able to sell it for some fair present value. So short sighted over-exploitation is his best personal option, dumping oil prices for as long as he breaths. And maybe the US administration encourage him in that venture. It always wants to get reelected for another four years, and low oil prices tend to be helpful for that prospect.
It's not fascism when the government does it.
"We must spend now as an investment for the future." - President Obama
I really liked this link of yours:
http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110006228 (Oil, Oil Everywhere)
But here's the catch: By simply opening up its spigots for a few years, Saudi Arabia could, in short order, force a complete write-off of the huge capital investments in Athabasca and Orinoco. Investing billions in tar-sand refineries is risky not because getting oil out of Alberta is especially difficult or expensive, but because getting oil out of Arabia is so easy and cheap. Oil prices gyrate and occasionally spike--both up and down--not because oil is scarce, but because it's so abundant in places where good government is scarce. Investing $5 billion over five years to build a new tar-sand refinery in Alberta is indeed risky when a second cousin of Osama bin Laden can knock $20 off the price of oil with an idle wave of his hand on any given day in Riyadh.
I always objected against "peak oil", that if peak oil is predicted, then why don't people lower their oil output today in order to sell it more expensively in the future? That would smooth out the transition from oil to alternative energy sources and eliminate the whole "problem". I've then thought that the political non-market dominance in the area of oil production could indeed justify a disastrous scarcity situation coming rather soon. But hey, maybe the simple answer is that most oil resources as a matter of fact ARE NOT EXTRACTED, but saved in expectation of increased prices! That's what I gathered from the paragraph I quoted above. Then, in good time before the Middel East dries out of oil, investments in new oil resources will be made and the transition to successively more expensive oil and successively more competitive alternatives, will indeed proceed smoothely. At least over a span ov several years. Political oil crises can always be created in the short term.
The oil drum boys arent quite as optimistic on Saudi Arabia's production capability: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5154
nandnor:The oil drum boys arent quite as optimistic on Saudi Arabia's production capability
Yes, more Mathew Simmons hysterics. I already covered this:
Crop Circles in the Desert: The Strange Controversy Over Saudi Oil Production (PDF) (Michael C. Lynch, President of Strategic Energy and Economic Research)
Martenson says: "The exact peak of discovery? That was in 1964, 44 years ago, and that is another cold, hard, indisputable fact."
I think he's just stating facts just like I might say that the price of a stock reached a historical peak in 1967. Doesn't mean it couldn't go higher in the future.
Martenson seems to be putting out some interesting facts about how important oil is to us, and it's discovery, and production. He leaves it up to the viewer to do whatever they want with that information. Of course, the stated facts ought to be verified, but I don't think that is Poptech's objection, is it?
I just realized that Martenson says that demand will outstrip available supply within 30 years and he doesn't give any proof of that.
As Poptech said, you'd have to know the exact amount of fossil fuels the earth contains to for that claim to be valid.
As far as DPatty's "facts" -
1) Oil discoveries peaked in 1964...we have been finding increasingly less and less oil each decade.
Fine, but since it's not known how much oil is in the earth, we could see a new peak in the future.
2) With individual oilfields the production profile (barrels
produced in a year vs time) resembles a bell curve with production
increasing each successive year until the half-way point whereby
production decreases each year (this is a matter of physics and not
Seams believable. I bet noone argues against that.
3) Because individual fields peak, and our oil discoveries have
peaked, the overall production profile will also follow the bell curve
DPatty says, "...will follow ..." but first you'd have to know the exact amount of fossil fuels on the planet and exactly how they are formed. Until then, we can't know when or if we'll run out.
4) Therefore we will peak in oil production at some point....most
estimates range from already having peaked to as far as 30 years away.
I am in agreement with Poptech that this is an assumption. Actually, I think it might be a non-sequitur too because yeah, for a given oil field or collection of oil fields that have been drilled for all they're worth, you get the bell shaped curve, but how does that mean "therefore" we will peak in oil production at some point?
Off Topic: Very cute avatar, Doug. :)
Back on topic: The answer has been provided by all the smart people on this board.
However, I'd like to add another point regarding the "Peak Oil" Bogosity that I haven't seen anyone touch on: Inflation. If I'm not mistaken, oil/gas prices In terms of gold and silver have stayed flat, and have actually fallen a bit late last year because of the drop in demand. If we were running out of oil (gas/oil becoming more scarce), we would see the price rising in terms of gold and other such commodities. This is because the scarcity would make them more valuable, and therefore raise their real prices, as opposed to their fiat/nominal prices.
Another thought I just remembered that compliments Poptech's points is the extraction efficiency.
I've heard that (can't remember my source) that if we got the rate to about 40% up from 35%, it would be the same as adding 6 Saudi Arabias to the Market in terms of oil.


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This greening toolkit was constructed with young people in mind.
It is the third in a series of toolkits that advance sustainability. The first two focused on the office and home for Deloitte employees. Now, as part of the Greening the next generation program at Deloitte, our emphasis is not only on the children of Deloitte but young people everywhere. We hope that "children of all ages" will benefit.
We all share the same world. How we treat the environment directly influences the quality of our lives now and in the years to come. Each of us has to decide the role we will play.
This toolkit is exactly what it is named—a kit of tools for you to use. It will give you information so you can understand the impact of your actions. It suggests ways to be more friendly to the environment. Links to the Internet are listed where you can learn more. But remember this toolkit is only a tool; it's up to you to make the right choice.
If you are a parent, we hope this toolkit will be helpful as you teach good principles to your children. If you are an adult relative or friend of young people, think about being a positive influence in their lives.
If you are among the youth of the world, this toolkit is for you. Learn from both the wisdom and mistakes of others. The future is yours. An awesome responsibility? Sure. But no generation has ever been more aware or more capable of making the tough decisions that need to happen. Make our world a better place.


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Ecologist Brent Bucknum, principal of Hyphae Design Lab in Oakland, California, shares the ABC's of re-routing a home's waste water (greywater) to sustainably irrigate gardens and other green...07.22.09
Dance Dance Renovation
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Stephen Shoup is the kind of person to see potential in things that others might miss. In 2005, looking for a property that would house himself and his design/build firm, building Lab inc., he...written by: Kelly Vencill Sanchez02.28.11
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Memorandum to the GOP: When running an election campaign it is often valuable to select a nominee who represents the rank and file of the Party. This is how other Parties do it. Perhaps you might get on board.
Well let's start with who not to select.
There was George H.W. Bush, who, while a nice, honorable public servant, won primarily because of the record Reagan established. He lost because the rest of us thought that when he mouthed the words "Read my lips, go to Texas," he meant "Read my lips, no new taxes."
There was Bob Dole,...


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Maybe it sounds a little perverse, but I usually try to avoid seeing any movies made from stage plays or musicals I have particularly enjoyed. A natural curiosity about how the material has been translated into a new medium tends to be outweighed by a general foreboding born of past experience. Too often the particular delights of a stage production evaporate considerably — if not entirely — in the translation.
The past few months have, alas, borne out my commitment to avoidance. For various reasons I broke my rule and caught the movie versions of two shows I adored: the head-banging, hair-band jukebox musical "Rock of Ages" and the stiletto-sharp Off Broadway comedy "Bachelorette."
Oh, dude. Oh, dear.
Although the movies are different in scale – "Rock of Ages" is a bigger-budget, star-bloated production, while "Bachelorette" is an indie picture directed by Leslye Headland, the author of the play – both had me wincing more often than I laughed. The dispiriting part is trying to keep intact in your memory file the delight you took in the material onstage when it has been so thoroughly flattened onscreen — to say nothing of trying to explain its allure to people who saw only the movie version. How many ways can you say, "You kind of had to be there"?
Making plays work as movies is always challenging, but comedies and musicals pose particular problems that often prove insurmountable. Both genres rely more deeply than drama on the immediacy of the audience's response. Although you hear the occasional sob during a fine production of "Death of a Salesman" or "King Lear," the reactions of the audience do not really become part of the rhythm of a dramatic play onstage.
But with comedies and musicals the laughter (and, at musicals, the applause) weaves its way into the texture of the material, feeding the actors and warming up the room. The audience is a participant in the production, and as actors will firmly attest, a bum audience can let the air out of the balloon pretty definitively.
Obviously at the cineplex the audience is still present, but the rhythm of the movie can't be relaxed to accommodate it. Film is immutable once it's in the can — metaphorically speaking, in this digital age. Moviemakers have to somehow negotiate this new distance between the material and the audience, and it can prove a treacherous proposition. Read more…


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Intense red in color. Pleasant and elegant opening on floral notes mixed with spices. Fresh, full and supple on the palate.
Pair with grilled meats and goat cheeses.
Since 1976, Louis Bernard has united winemakers of the Rhone Valley in a common project: to devote the best of their wine and savoir-faire to producing great wines. With production throughout the Cotes du Rhone region, Louis Bernard remains dedicated to showcasing the unique characteristics of each terroir while producing exquisite, world-class wines.
La Chartreuse de Bonpas is...Read More About Louis Bernard
A Cote of Many Grapes
The appellation of Cotes du Rhone encompasses much of the land of the area, not to mention much of the wine - over two-thirds of the wine produced here is of the Cotes-du-Rhone appellation. Wines here need only be from the Cotes de Rhone geographic area (which is fairly large) and consist of one or more of the 22 varieties permitted. Being such a wide...Read More About Cotes du Rhone
The Rhone region of France has a delightful selection of red varieties. There are 22 grapes allowed in the Rhone AOC, about half of them red. Most of these varieties are used as secondary blending partners, often comprising less than 10% of the blend. The primary red players of Rhone blends are Syrah, Grenache and Mourvedre. Most wines from the Southern Rhone use Grenache as their...Read More About Rhone Red Blends
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Dan Ward, assistant to Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, indicated that both Lady of Fifty and Esentepe will start in Saturday's Grade I, $250,000 Vanity Handicap at 1 1-8 miles on Cushion Track.
Lady of Fifty is the more accomplished of the two. The 4-year-old gray daughter of After Market won the Grade II Bayakoa Handicap last Dec. 8 at Betfair Hollywood Park and was second to Open Water in the Grade II Marjorie L. Everett Handicap May 18 in her first start in three months.
Esentepe, a Group III winner in England, was extremely impressive winning an optional claimer May 9 in her Cushion Track debut. Rafael Bejarano rode both fillies last time and it is uncertain which one he will ride in the Vanity. Corey Nakatani will ride the other.
Open Water will try to show that her 9-1 upset victory in the Everett was not a fluke. The Eric Guillot trainee previously was runner-up to Lady of Fifty in the Bayakoa. Joe Talamo retains the mount.
More Chocolate captured the Grade II La Canada Stakes Jan. 20 at Santa Anita, defeating Lady of Fifty by 4 ¼ lengths and Open Water by nearly eight. The Vanity would mark her first try on a synthetic track. Garrett Gomez has the assignment for trainer John Sadler.
Mark Glatt left open the possibility that Royal Tiger would return quickly to run in the Vanity. The 6-year-old Hold That Tiger mare crushed $40,000 optional claimers by 14 lengths June 2.
As of Sunday, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert was undecided about the status of his two Vanity nominees, Candrea and Maker Or Breaker. Candrea, a Grade I-placed daughter of Trippi, hasn't run since finishing second in the Santa Lucia Stakes April 14. She's won two of three starts on Cushion Track. Maker Or Breaker set the pace in the Everett before tiring to fourth.
If Declassify's ability was ever a classified secret, the cat's out of the bag now.
The dark bay son of Orientate made it 2-for-2 Saturday at Betfair Hollywood Park with an imposing 7 1-2 length victory. In his April 6 debut at six furlongs, he cantered home by 11 1-2 lengths in a brilliant 1:08 4/5 at Santa Anita.
Declassify was bought for $450,000 by Bob Baffert at the 2012 April Ocala Breeders Sale for 2-year-olds in training.
It wasn't the pedigree that attracted such a big purchase price. Declassify's dam, Mir Cat, never started, and his only sibling, A Mir Do Buy, also was unraced.
"He came out of the same sale as Executiveprivilege," said Baffert. "We bought him strictly for his athletic ability. He had worked really fast and did things the right way. We took our time with him because he had a few minor setbacks like shins and a quarter cracks."
Baffert watched Declassify's race, along with Fast Bullet's victory in the $400,000, Grade II True North Handicap at Belmont Park from his home. The trainer is not sure where Declassify will start next, but his long term goal is the Grade I King's Bishop Stakes Aug. 25 at Saratoga.
Though disappointed with Mizdirection's fifth-place finish in Saturday's Grade I, $500,000 Just a Game Stakes at Belmont Park, trainer Mike Puype is far from discouraged.
"I'm not making any excuses," said Puype shortly after landing in Los Angeles Sunday morning. "It's just the circumstances. After all the rain they got, the turf course was really deep. When they come out here, it's different, and when we fly there, it's different. I don't think her quality is in question. We had to take a chance with the race being a Grade I and for all that money."
Puype said Mizdirection, who had won four consecutive graded races prior to the Just a Game, is due back at Betfair Hollywood Park Sunday night. He said she came out of the race "well," but will take some time to evaluate her before deciding where she'll run next.
In celebration of Hollywood Park's diamond anniversary, Betfair Hollywood Park will offer special 75 cent pricing Saturday, June 15.
General admission, programs, hot dogs and sodas will be available for 75 cents the entire day. Beer will be offered at the reduced price for 75 minutes – from 1 p.m. to 2:15 p.m.
Additionally, a prix fixe menu with a choice of soup or salad, main course selection, dessert and a glass of champagne in a commemorative 75th anniversary flute will be offered in the Turf Club. The cost is $75 per couple. Reservations can be made by calling 310-419-1601.
Post time June 15 is 1 p.m. Track gates will open at 9:55 a.m. for simulcasts.
The feature attraction is the $250,000 Vanity Handicap, a Grade I for older fillies and mares at 1 1/8 miles over Cushion Track. The card will also include a pair of stakes for 2-year-olds – the $100,000 Willard L. Proctor Memorial and the $100,000 Cinderella Stakes for fillies. Both are at 5 ½ furlongs over Cushion Track.
The fifth $150,000-guaranteed Pick Six Saturday of the Spring/Summer meet will also be offered.
If the Pick Six pool exceeds $200,000 on any of the remaining selected Saturdays – which also include June 22, June 29, July 6 and July 13 – there will be Happy Hour food and drink specials available at Whittingham's Pub and the Betfair Players' Lounge.
A bonus – a 2013 Toyota Prius courtesy of Toyota of Orange – will also be given to a single winning ticket – provided it was purchased either at Betfair Hollywood Park or through Television Games Network (TVG).
CLOSING STRIDES —In good spirits but wearing a brace and on crutches, jockey Joy Scott was a visitor Saturday at Betfair Hollywood Park. Scott suffered a compound fracture of her right femur in a training accident at Santa Anita March 12……Tale of a Champion, winner of the Grade II, $200,250 Charles Whittingham Memorial Handicap, and Sarach, who took the Grade II, $150,750 Honeymoon Handicap, both returned in good order, according to respective trainers Kristin Mulhall and Richard Mandella. Mulhall said Tale of a Champion may run next in the Grade III Sunset Handicap July 14, while Mandella indicated Sarach would return in the Grade I, $350,000 American Oaks July 13……..The single winning ticket in Saturday's Pick 6 was purchased through Twin Spires at a cost of $540 and contained the only two horses – Fernando Suancini, who finished seventh and winner Sinfully – that were alive……..Jockey Chantal Sutherland, who began a comeback Friday in Canada, finished third aboard Erma Lee in Saturday's 10th race at Woodbine. The 37-year-old had been working horses in Southern California to get fit………Trainer Ron Ellis plans to start both Teddy's Promise and Include Me Out in the $70,000-added Desert Stormer Handicap June 16. Grade I winner Teddy's Promise is 5-for-9 on Cushion Track, including an easy win in the Time to Leave Stakes May 5. Include Me Out, victorious in the Santa Margarita and Clement L. Hirsch—both Grade I's —posted a victory on Cushion Track in the 2012 Marjorie L. Everett Handicap. The Desert Stormer is run at six furlongs…..Kinz Funky Monkey, upset winner ($33.20) of the $73,600 Manhattan Beach Stakes Saturday, is named after owner Rocco Aceto's 11-year-old granddaughter, Kinzie.
Copyright © 2009-2014, Hollywood Park. All rights reserved.


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Santa Monica, Calif. – The No. 9 Nebraska sand volleyball team edged the No. 7 UCLA Bruins in 3-2 victory at the Annenburg Community Beach House in Santa Monica, Calif., on Thursday afternoon. In a showdown of first-year programs, the Huskers came out on top to improve their overall record to 4-3.
Nebraska's No. 1 duo of Kelsey Robinson and Alexa Strange defeated Meg Norton and Kelly Reeves 21-15, 21-16 to get the afternoon started for the Huskers. Hayley Thramer and Amber Rolfzen fell to Zoë Nightingale and Becca Strehlow 21-17, 21-19, but Morgan Broekhuis and Kadie Rolfzen helped NU with a big win at the No. 3 spot over Bojana Todorovic and Megan Moenoa 21-13, 19-21, 15-7.
Alicia Ostrander and Kelsey Fien defeated Karly Drolson and Karsta Lowe in three sets at 21-19, 21-23, 15-13, while Sherida Zarda and Meghan Haggerty fell to Rachel Inouye and Maddy Klineman 21-19, 21-19.
The Huskers will head to No. 4 USC tomorrow for a pair of matches against the Trojans and No. 5 Hawaii. Nebraska will face Hawaii at 1 p.m. CT and USC at 3 p.m. CT at Merle Norman Stadium. All matches will be streamed live: http://pac-12.com/live/usctrojans.aspx.
Nebraska 3, UCLA 2#1-Kelsey Robinson/Alexa Strange d. Meg Norton/Kelly Reeves, 21-15, 21-16#2-Zoë Nightingale/Becca Strehlow d. Hayley Thramer/Amber Rolfzen, 21-17, 21-19#3-Morgan Broekhuis/Kadie Rolfzen d. Bojana Todorovic/Megan Moenoa, 21-13, 19-21, 15-7#4-Alicia Ostrander/Kelsey Fien d. Karly Drolson/Karsta Lowe, 21-19, 21-23, 15-13#5-Rachel Inouye/Maddy Klineman d. Sheridan Zarda/Meghan Haggerty, 21-19, 21-19#6 non-scoring match (exhibition)-Phelix Fincher/Mariana Aquino d. Alicia Ostrander/Cecilia Hall, 21-19, 11-21, 15-11
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You might not be the ones building the stock car's body or working on the pit crew, but as a die-hard Dale Jr. fan you definitely bring the good looks to his fanbase and that keeps the #88 flying around the track. Keep yourself lookin' good on race day with this Fabricator shirt by Chase Authentics. Featuring a custom driver name printed on the left side with a large photo of Dale Jr and his name on back, this Earnhardt V-neck will provide you with that chic look you desire as you motivate the #88 to the checkered flag.
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Cut out and attach these labels to toothpicks, and top your homemade treat with a sign that lets them know it was made with love!
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Like the city itself, Thistle Newcastle, The County in Newcastle City Centre is a fascinating mix of the old and new. Directly opposite the railway station, this Newcastle hotel is a Grade II Listed Victorian building, which has been sympathetically restored and brought right up to date. Its central location makes it an ideal base from which to explore Newcastle.
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You are here > Home > Primate Studies > Discussion
Primate Studies
— Where BTF's Members Investigate the Grand Old Game
Monday, December 10, 2012
What do you do with Deacon White?
Last week, the attention of the baseball world was focused keenly on the Winter Meetings. They're reliably one of the high points of the offseason, featuring free agent speculation, wild trade rumors, and Hall of Fame selections from the Veterans' Committee.
Unfortunately, "keen" is a very generous description for the level of emphasis given to the last item on that list. The Veterans' vote didn't even get top headline status on ESPN's MLB page when it was announced, even though it was an easier group to publicize than you'd expect from the fact that it's composed of people whose careers were finished at least a decade before Jamie Moyer was born. You have a longtime umpire who made one of the most famous and controversial calls in baseball history. You have the Yankee owner who acquired Babe Ruth and built Yankee Stadium. And you have Deacon White, who hit 24 home runs in his career, never scored or drove in 100 runs in a season, and registered 500 plate appearances in a year for the first time at age 38. At a glance, he seems like a rather odd selection.
Rob Neyer is one of the few writers who bothered to address the Veterans' ballot this year. He penned the following in reference to White:
"Deacon White - 19th-century catcher, and it's always hard to know what to do with 19th-century catchers, because the demands of the position at that time—no real mitt, no shin guards, no mask—meant that catchers didn't play many games, or last many seasons. In fact, White shifted to other positions (mostly third base) in the latter half of his career. At 42, he was still playing every day, which probably says as much about baseball at that time than about his talents."
Indeed, White's games played totals during his career as a catcher (1871-79) don't look terribly impressive:
29, 22, 60, 70, 80, 66, 59, 61, 78
But games played totals have to be put in context. The numbers of games played by White's teams in those seasons are:
29, 22, 60, 71, 82, 66, 61, 61, 81
White wasn't missing time due to the strains of primitive catching. In fact, he was barely missing any time at all – a total of 8 games skipped in 9 years. His game totals were low because his teams weren't playing anything approaching a modern schedule – professional baseball was in its infancy, long-distance travel was a highly challenging endeavor, teams frequently played large numbers of non-league games, and franchises would sometimes fold midseason.
The question then becomes: How do you adjust for this schedule discrepancy?
The easiest answer to this question is not to adjust at all. White played the games he played, amassed the hits and doubles and RBI that he amassed, and should be compared to other players on that basis. By this logic, White's career totals of 2067 hits, 1140 runs, 988 RBI, and 44 Wins above Replacement (as estimated by Baseball Reference) are nice enough, but not terribly impressive in a historic context, especially considering the fact that he doesn't have a single season exceeding 160 hits, 210 total bases, or 5 WAR.
There are a couple of easily identifiable problems with this method. First, it doesn't account for opportunity. White played in nearly all the games he possibly could have, while a modern player who participates in 80 games in a season is not only missing half of the year, but making his team find someone else to put in his spot for the other 82. The other issue is that of impact on team results. In an 82-game schedule, a literally-interpreted 5-WAR player (White's 1875 total was 4.9) should turn a .500 team into a .561 team (46-36); if you double the length of the schedule, you correspondingly reduce the impact of the wins (86-76, or .531).
The real issue at hand is not White's raw contributions on the baseball field, but rather how those contributions affected his teams' position in the standings. In an attempt to take the most direct approach possible to that question, this analysis is going to take WAR at face value as an estimate of wins added, with all the applicable caveats.
The most intuitive method is to simply pro-rate each season to 162 games, multiplying the player's statistics by (162/team games played). This makes a 2-WAR season through 20 games equivalent to a 16-WAR season through 160. Applied to our sample player, we see that this adjustment turns White's 1875 from a 4.9-win season into a 9.7-win season, and he also picks up 8-win campaigns in '72, '76, and '77. His career WAR more than doubles, to 93.0, and he moves firmly into Hall of Fame territory – at least, if this is a fair adjustment.
The trouble is, it's not a fair adjustment. White's 1872 Cleveland Forest Citys played in 22 games, so let's look at the 2012 standings after 22 games for comparison. You find the Dodgers and Rangers at 16-6, the Twins and Royals at 6-16, and the Padres and Angels at 7-15. All of those teams have winning percentages further from .500 than the 55-107 Astros did at the end of the year – and this edition of the Astros had baseball's most extreme end-of-season record since 2004. It's no surprise that smaller samples of games are inherently prone to wider variation in team performance. Because of this phenomenon, a player who contributes 2 wins in a 20-game schedule (which would be expected to give an otherwise-average team a 12-8 record) would be far less likely to propel his team to a pennant than one who adds 16 wins over a 162-game schedule (97-65).
We can account for this by simply comparing the variance in team performance through different points in the season. Of course, we'll want to use a sample larger than one season of baseball to do so.
Games S% S S(162)/S
The spread in team winning percentage becomes smaller throughout the year, as expected. Adjusting for the variance in team performance, it's evident that a 2-win increase in a 20-game season is not, in fact, equivalent to a 16-win improvement over 162; it's closer in impact to a 9-win enhancement over a full season. That looks about right; you'd expect a 12-8 team to be in contention to either win a weak division or take the second wild card slot, and you'd expect the same from a 90-72 team.
Accounting for this takes a bit of the air out of White's production – his 1877 season, in which he was the best hitter in baseball but played mostly first base rather than catcher, is now equivalent to a 7.3 WAR season rather than 8.5. That's still an excellent year, but it doesn't look as impressive as it did under the simpler pro-rating adjustment.
Note, however, that because I lacked the stamina to enter records after each of 162 games for each of 1242 teams, we're left with substantial gaps in the table. For maximum utility, we should try to find a curve that can be applied to any season length, up to and surpassing 162 games.
As it happens, there is just such a curve; its origins will be explained in further detail shortly. The equation is as follows (with apologies for the awkward formatting):
Where N is the number of games played. As before, multiplying S%(N) by N gives the standard deviation of team wins. For comparison, here are the results when this curve is applied to the same season lengths listed in the table above:
Games S%(N) S(N) S(162)/S(N)
The basic assumption I used is that there are two reasons for variance in team performance: talent and luck. The overall variance can then be expressed as a function of the variance due to talent and the variance due to luck. Assuming that there is no relationship between talent and luck (which is pretty much true by definition; if your luck is somehow based in talent, it's not actually luck), this function should be:
The standard deviation due to luck can be calculated using the binomial probability distribution, which applies to the answering of large numbers of identical yes-or-no questions such as "did the coin come up heads?" or "did you win the baseball game?". Over a sample of N games, the standard deviation of the number of wins for a .500 talent team is:
This makes the standard deviation of winning percentage due to luck
If that looks familiar, that's because it's the first half of the equation for the curve proposed earlier. The second half is the value for the other source of variance, talent. Using the equation given above for S(T+L), we can actually find an observed value for the standard deviation due to talent through each of the samples used:
Games S%(T,N)
We can quickly observe two things. First, the value remains rather stable from game 20 through game 101, then increases steadily for the remainder of the season. This makes sense, because game 101 is roughly the timing of the trade deadline, when good teams get better and bad teams get worse; you'd expect the variation in talent to increase, and to continue to do so as rosters expand in September.
All right, the math is done; let's get back to the baseball side of things. What does all of this mean for Deacon White? Here's his career WAR in three forms: raw, pro-rated, and adjusted using the proposed model.
Year Team Lg Tm G WAR PR WAR Mod WAR
One final, bright red warning light about this adjustment: Since it was derived around team wins and the spread thereof, it's not really safe to apply to non-win-based measurements. So while it might be fun (at least if you're me) to find out that Deacon White had equivalent career totals of 3457 hits and 1957 runs, or that his 1873 season features 263 equivalent hits, exceeding Ichiro's single-season record, that's not an exercise in any danger of drowning in rigor.
Even with that caveat, the adjustment proposed here is still quite useful, not only for White and the other stars of the earliest era of baseball, but also for more recent players such as Heinie Groh, Bobby Grich, and Bagwell, who peaked during shortened seasons. It strikes a balance between no adjustment, which penalizes these players for missing games that never occurred, and pro-rating, which attempts to address that issue but overcompensates. By accounting for evolution in the standings over the course of the year, it gives us a better chance to answer the question we're really trying to ask: How much did this player improve his team's odds of winning the pennant?
Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: December 10, 2012 at 09:19 AM | 17 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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