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Reuters blog archive
from Global Investing:
Strong dollar, weak oil and emerging markets growth
Many emerging economies have been banking on weaker currencies to revitalise economic growth. Oil's 25 percent fall in dollar terms this year should also help. The problem however is the dollar's strength which is leading to a general tightening of monetary conditions worldwide, more so in countries where central banks are intervening to prevent their currencies from falling too much.
Michael Howell, managing director of the CrossBorder Capital consultancy estimates the negative effect of the stronger dollar on global liquidity (in simple terms, the amount of capital available for investment and spending) outweighs the positives from falling oil prices by a ratio of 10 to 1. Not only does it raise funding costs for non-U.S. banks and companies, it also usually forces other central banks to keep monetary policy tight, especially in countries with high inflation or external debt levels. Howell says:
If you get a strong dollar and intervention by EM cbanks what it means is monetary tightening...The big decision is: do they allow currencies to devalue or do they defend them? But when they use reserves to protect their currencies, there is an implicit policy tightening.
The tightening happens because central bank dollar sales tend to suck out supply of the local currency from markets, tightening liquidity. That effectively drives up the cost of money, as banks and companies scramble for cash to meet their daily commitments. Central banks can of course offset interventions via so-called sterilisations - for instance when they buy dollars to curb their currencies' strength, they can issue bonds to suck up the excess cash from the market. To ease the tight money supply problem they can in theory print more cash to supply banks. But while many emerging central banks did sterilise interventions in the post-crisis years when their currencies were appreciating, they are less likely to do so when they are trying to stem depreciation, says UBS strategist Manik Narain. So what is happening is that (according to Narain):
from The Great Debate:
Sanctions finally find Russia's Achilles heel
Russian President Vladimir Putin and President Barack Obama were reportedly engaged in a heated telephone conversation last Thursday when Putin noted in passing that an aircraft had gone down in Ukraine. The tragic crash of the Malaysian airliner in rebel-held eastern Ukraine continues to dominate the headlines, but it is important to remember what agitated Putin and prompted the phone call in the first place -- sanctions.
Sanctions against Russia have been the centerpiece of the U.S. response to Putin's interference in Ukraine. While they primarily have been directed against prominent friends of Putin and their businesses, the underlying target has been a weak Russian economy. The sanctions have definitely found Russia's Achilles' heel, and with harsher sanctions looming in the aftermath of flight MA17, Putin is finding it increasingly difficult to craft an effective reply.
from MacroScope:
New EU takes shape
The new EU aristocracy will be put in place this week with the European Parliament to confirm Jean-Claude Juncker as the next European Commission President today and then EU leaders gathering for a summit on Wednesday at which they will work out who gets the other top jobs in Brussels.
Although Juncker, who will make a statement to the parliament today which may shed some light on his policy priorities, is supposed to decide the 27 commissioner posts – one for each country – in reality this will be an almighty horse-trading operation.
from Breakingviews:
Russia harms the BRICs and adds to global risks
By Ian Campbell
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
BRICs? Perhaps it should be shortened to BICs. Russia's intervention in Ukraine is a big blow to the Russian economy and also to other embattled emerging economies. It's not good for the global picture either, as the redirection of funds makes developed markets more bubbly and vulnerable.
from Global Investing:
Emerging equities: out of the doghouse
Emerging stocks, in the doghouse for months and months, haven't done too badly of late. The main EM index, has rallied more than 11 percent since its end-August troughs, outgunning the S&P 500's 3 percent rise in this period. Bank of America/Merrill Lynch strategist Michael Hartnett reminds us of the extreme underweight positioning in emerging stocks last month, as revealed by his bank's monthly investor survey. Anyone putting on a long EM-short UK equities trade back then would have been in the money with returns of 540 basis points, he says.
Undoubtedly, the postponement of the Fed taper is the main reason for the rally. Another big inducement is that valuations look very cheap (forward P/E is around 9.9 versus a 10-year average of 10.8) .
from Global Investing:
Bernanke Put for emerging markets? Not really
The Fed's unexpectedly dovish position last week has sparked a rally in emerging markets -- not only did the U.S. central bank's all-powerful boss Ben Bernanke keep his $85 billion-a-month money printing programme in place, he also mentioned emerging markets in his post-meeting news conference, noting the potential impact of Fed policy on the developing world. All that, along with the likelihood of the dovish Janet Yellen succeeding Bernanke was described by Commerzbank analysts as "a triple whammy for EM." A positive triple whammy, presumably.
Now it may be going too far to conclude there is some kind of Bernanke Put for emerging markets of the sort the U.S. stock market is said to enjoy -- the assumption, dating back to Alan Greenspan's days, that things cant go too wrong for markets because the Fed boss will wade in with lower rates to right things. But the fact remains that global pressure on the Fed has been mounting to avoid any kind of violent disruption to the flow of cheap money -- remember the cacophony at this month's G20 summit? Second, the spike in U.S. yields may have been the main motivation for standing pat but the Treasury selloff was at least partly driven by emerging central banks which have needed to dip into their reserve stash to defend their own currencies. According to IMF estimates, developing countries hold some $3.5 trillion worth of Treasuries, of which just under half is in China. (See here for my colleague Mike Dolan's June 12 article on the EM-Fed linkages)
from Global Investing:
Russian stocks: big overweight
Emerging stocks are not much in favour these days -- Bank of America/Merrill Lynch's survey of global fund managers finds that in August just a net 18 percent of investors were overweight emerging markets, among the lowest since 2001. Within the sector though, there are some outright winners and quite a few losers. Russian stocks are back in favour, the survey found, with a whopping 92 percent of fund managers overweight. Allocations to Russia doubled from last month (possibly at the expense of South African where underweight positions are now at 100 percent, making it the most unloved market of all) See below for graphic:
BofA points out its analyst Michael Harris recently turned bullish on Russian stocks advising clients to go for a "Big Overweight" on a market that he reckons is best positioned to benefit from the recovery in global growth.
from MacroScope:
Turning up?
Manufacturing PMI surveys for euro zone countries and Britain will be the latest litmus test of the durability of fledgling economic recoveries.
Even the readings from Spain and Italy have shown improvement over the summer so it may well be that they are the most interesting given we've already had flash readings for the euro zone, Germany and France which showed business activity across the currency bloc picked up faster than expected in August.
from Global Investing:
Tapping India's diaspora to salvage rupee
What will save the Indian rupee? There's an election next year so forget about the stuff that's really needed -- structural reforms to labour and tax laws, easing business regulations and scrapping inefficient subsidies. The quickest and most effective short-term option may be a dollar bond issued to the Indian diaspora overseas which could boost central bank coffers about $20 billion.
The option was mooted a month ago when the rupee's slide started to get into panic territory but many Indian policymakers are not so keen on the idea
from Global Investing:
Turkey's central bank — a little more action please
In the selloff gripping emerging markets, one currency is conspicuous by its absence -- the Turkish lira. But this will change unless the central bank adds significantly to its successful lira-defensive measures.
Hopefully at today's policy meeting.
Like India or Indonesia which have borne the brunt of the recent rout, Turkey has a large current account deficit, equating to over 5 percent of its economic output. But what has made the difference for the lira is the contrast between the Turkish central bank's decisive policy tightening moves and the ham-fisted tactics employed by India and Brazil. (We wrote here about this). See the following graphic (from Citi) that shows the central bank has effectively raised the effective cost of funding by 200 basis points to around 6.5 percent since its July 23 meeting.


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ICT, Pedagogy and the Curriculum
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This book explores the impact new information and communication technologies are having on teaching and the way children learn. The book addresses key issues across all phases of primary and secondary education, both in the UK and internationally.
ICT, Pedagogy and the Curriculum looks at the relationship between ICT, paradigms of teaching and learning, and the way in which curriculum subjects are represented. Three principal areas are addressed:
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It will be of interest to all primary and secondary teachers and those in initial teacher training who are concerned about current technology initiatives in education and how to respond to them.less
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Welcome to Plato's Closet South Coast and Long Beach!
Shop at our South Coast or Long Beach stores for all your back to school fashions and save big on great styles at even better prices!Plato's Closet® is a fashion savvy clothing store for CASUAL TEENS AND YOUNG ADULTS. We pay CASH for Current style, Gently used name clothes and accessories!
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Break Gallery CCV
Posted by Break.com Staff on Jun. 25, 2008
Posted by Break.com Staff on Jun. 25, 2008
 its going to look awesome at 82
Dan Hazelton at sacred skin tattoo and lounge 4142599930! He is an amazing artist!
let me get: the artist's #
if it's real: it's freaking awesome
fake: and gay
It goes a little something like this...: "oh mike. take me. oh yes. what's that?" "it's my sweet spider man tattoo. it kinda represents me." "oh" "come on baby" "no mike. stop. i'm tired" the end
there are arm sleeves: that go with the chest piece as well. danhazelton dot com. go to the tattoo gallery #3 (not the archive gallery) and it will be on the top right.
looka cool now but: very regretable later on
the artist is Dan Hazelton.: great artist. i have some friends with work of his.
those: ripped skin tats are fking gay
"What's it suppose to represent?": "Spiderwho? " thats what he'll get in 20 years. People will laugh at him
Yeah thats prolly the best flesh ripping tat iv'e seen: Most of them don't turn out good, but this one is bad ass! I wish I new who the artist was.
really: nice done ! But man thats is gay
That'll look good in 40 years: .
this tat is going to hurt him: picking up p*ssy on the beach.
thats the coolest: tat i ever saw, rly
Well done but: will be hilarious when he's flaunting that at the nursing home when he's 80
That's: Sweet
thats actually a really well done tattoo: too bad its novelty will wear off fast with age.
Nice work....: ..... Shame it's probably one of the most ridiculous tatoos ever to have as an adult male...
you fail me once again break: get them!
may be weird: but really well done
gotta be some kinda: a izziot
LOl: i mean SICK****
not going to lie: thats fuckin shit!
i have a: complete back piece.. i am ashamed, compared to this.
You sure dude...: When your skins all wrinkled and spotted. Really dude. When you start scaring yourself in the morning when you see this, and have no idea what the fuk it is. Really? Is it gonna be cool then? No. it's gonna be sick and terrifying.
it'll still look cool then: and i have no idea why you think it won't. if anything it will be even cooler for an 80-year-old guy to have such a tat.


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Tea Party and Boehner Pas de Deux
House Republicans and Speaker John Boehner have hit upon a de facto solution to the problems of governing while seeming to keep faith with their ideologically driven constituents.
Here's the deal: Boehner first stakes out a good position on spending and budget issues by passing a bill he knows will not go anywhere in the Senate or win presidential approval. But the one-house bill gives his Republican members something to vote for and to cite to angry voters back home.
Once his members are safely on record supporting cuts in spending, the speaker then caves in to Obama and the Senate, passing the financial bills the mainstream media says the country needs. But he does so with a majority that consists of almost unanimous Democratic support and forty or fifty of his best supporters in the GOP caucus. The rest of the Republican Congressional Caucus — tea party and others — votes against the bill. It seems that they are defying their Speaker and, back home, their votes pass for courage. But, in reality, they are simply acting out their part of a carefully choreographed pas de deux.
Some of the no votes on Boehner's bills come from sincere and true believers who genuinely want to demand more spending cuts before they allow the debt limit to be raised or the government to continue to function. Congresspeople like Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), Steve King (R-Iowa), Louie Gohmert (R-Texas) and a few dozen others are true believers. But the rest of the class of 2010 is riding along on their coattails, voting no and keeping their fingers crossed that they get outvoted so they don't have to face a firestorm in the media by beating the administration's bill.
For his part, Speaker Boehner has become the de facto coalition speaker, representing a combination of the entire Democratic Party and a sprinkling of loyal Republicans.
His historic metaphor is former British Prime Minister Ramsay MacDonald, who became the first-ever Labour Party Prime Minister in 1924 and again from 1929-31. Like Boehner and the Tea Party, he first attained power at the head of the brand new Labor Party in 1924. While Boehner's speakership came about as a reaction to Obamacare, MacDonald's majority stemmed from the pacifist reaction to World War I. After nine months, however, he lost to a resurgent Conservative Party. When he returned to power in 1929, he found it impossible to reconcile the demands of his Labour Party base with the conventional wisdom favoring austerity, so he formed a coalition government in 1931 with only a handful of Labour members but backed by a united Tory Party. That's roughly Boehner's situation today. Just as the Conservatives pulled the strings behind the former first-ever Labour Prime Minister, so Obama and Reid are calling the shots for the speaker elected with Tea Party votes.
MacDonald's Labour Party fell in 1931 because it was split between those who went along with the Conservative Party's demand to keep the gold standard through spending cuts and his own Labour base which demanded higher spending to counter the Depression. Boehner's Republican Party is similarly divided between those who are willing to continue to see spending grow and the GOP base, which demands deep cuts. And, like MacDonald, Boehner would rather cling to power and be manipulated by the demands of his opposition than to stand on principle with his own party.
What is the likely future of the House Republican majority? It depends on the outcome of the president's policies. If they lead to the economic disaster we conservatives have been predicting, the GOP will capture the Senate and gain in the House. Then the stage will be set for Boehner to stand on principle, as he tried to do in 2009 and 2010, or to be pushed aside. But, if the stagnation in which we are now mired turns out to be permanent (as it is in Japan and Europe), then the Republicans are likely to lose their majority.
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Chefs and swimsuit models volley for charityFebruary 20, 2014 @ 5:44 pm
MIAMI BEACH, Fla. (AP) - Celebrity chefs may be used to the heat of the kitchen, but can they handle hot bods?
They found out Thursday when more than a dozen Sports Illustrated swimsuit models tested their mettle in a charity beach volleyball tournament.
The chefs _ who paid at least $1,000 each for the privilege of playing alongside the models _ hit the sand as part of the South Beach Wine and Food Festival. The event raised more than $20,000 for the Armed Forces Foundation and featured models from the 50th anniversary edition of the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue.
The lineup included cover models Kate Upton, Nina Agdal and Lily Aldridge, as well as chefs Tim Love, Michael Symon, Jeff Mauro, Pat LaFrieda and Spike Mendelsohn.
"We really run around like crazy prepping for all these events (at the festival). People don't realize how much work this is. We just wanted to sit back and have a little bit of fun," said Mendelsohn, who helped organize the event. "And Sports Illustrated was fun enough to lend us the swimsuit models!"
(Copyright 2014 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.)
Stolen Celebration
Thieves have stolen all the decorations for Seattle's popular Halloween Alley
A Boeing CEO says Everett's new 777X wing facility is a sign of commitment
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Description (OCR text may contain errors)
April 21, 1959 J. GREENWALD 2,882,812
BASKET DEVICE FOR SUPPORTING AND CONFINING A ROAST OR THE LIKE IN A ROTISSERIE Flled May 7, 1958 INVENTOR MARVIN J. GREENWALD ATTORNEY United States Patent BASKET DEVICE FOR SUPPORTING AND CON- FINING A ROAST OR THE LIKE IN A ROTIS- SERIE Marvin I. Greenwald, Albuquerque, N. Mex.
Application May 7, 1958, Serial No. 733,557
2 Claims. (Cl. 99-427) The present invention relates to cooking apparatus, and more particularly to a basket device for supporting and confining a roast or the like in a rotisserie.
An object of the invention is to provide a device of the above-mentioned character adapted for use upon a conventional rotisserie for cooking roasts and the like, and constructed so that roasts of various sizes or weight may be conveniently and efliciently cooked in a minimum of time, and without the necessity of tying the roasts with cord to confine them prior to cooking.
A further important object of the invention is to provide a basket device of the above-mentioned character which is adapted to support and confine during cooking either a single large roast or one or more small roasts, in the form of fowl, various cuts of beef, and the like.
A further object is to provide a device of the abovementioned character which is highly simplified in construction, sturdy and durable, very economical to manufacture, easy to clean and maintain, and efiicient in operation or use.
-A further object is to provide a rotisserie basket of the above-mentioned character which is self-contained and I free of parts or accessories which are separable and likely to become lost or misplaced.
Still another object is to provide a rotisserie basket including novel adjustable means for resiliently holding meat cuts or roasts of various sizes substantially centrally within the basket during cooking.
Other objects and advantages of the invention will become apparent during the course of the following description.
In the accompanying drawings forming a part of this application and in which like numerals are employed to designate like parts throughout the same,
Figure 1 is a perspective view of a rotisserie basket embodying the present invention.
Figure 2 is a transverse section taken substantially on line 2-2 of Figure 1.
Figure 3 is a plan view on a reduced scale of the rotisserie basket in an open position.
In the drawings, wherein for the purpose of illustration is shown a preferred embodiment of the invention, the numeral designates the rotisserie basket as a whole, which basket comprises a companion pair of elongated semi-cylindrical basket sections or halves 11 and 12, which are substantially identical in construction.
Each basket section 11 and 12 comprises a pair of end rigid frames, including semi-circular bars 13 and diametrically extending bars 14, rigidly secured between the ends of the semi-circular bars 13 by welding or the like. The rigid end frames of the basket sections 11 and 12 are rigidly connected in the case of each basket section by a pair of parallel longitudinal bars 15, having their opposite ends secured by welding or the like to the semi-circular bars 13 close to the diametrically extending bars 14. The longitudinal bars and the diametrical bars 14 define the margins of the inner open sides of the semi-cylindrical basket sections 11 and 12, which open sides are brought together in opposed relation when the basket is in the closed cooking position shown in Figure 1.
Each basket section further comprises a plurality of circumferentially equidistantly spaced longitudinal wires 16, having their ends secured by welding or the like to the semi-circular bars 13 of the rigid end frames. The wires 16 are straight and parallel, and are preferably formed of relatively still or heavy wire,
Each basket section 11 and 12 further comprises a plurality of longitudinally equidistantly spaced semi-circular wires 17, preferably of lighter gauge than the wire 16, and crossing the wire 16 substantially at right angles thereto, and having their opposite ends secured by welding or the like to the longitudinal rigid bars 15 of the particular basket section 11 or 12. The semi-circular wires 17 may be free from positive connection to the longitudinal wire 16, or they may be welded or otherwise secured thereto at their points of crossing with the wire 16.
The several wires 16 and 17 and the semi-circular frame bars 13 thus form the semi-cylindrical open mesh side wall of each basket section 11 or 12. As shown in the drawings, the basket sections 11 and 12 have relatively large rectangular openings, formed by the crossing of the wires 16 and 17, which wires have relatively large spaces between them.
Corresponding sides or edges of the basket sections 11 and 12 are hingedly secured together, as best shown in Figure 3, by wire hinge elements 18, pivoted within openings provided in the rigid end frames of the basket sections, near one pair of the longitudinal bars 15.
In order to secure the companion basket sections 11 of the other basket section 11, near and inwardly of the I ends of the basket, so that the basket sections may be secured in opposed closed relation as shown in Figure 1.
Means are provided for partially closing the ends of the basket sections 11 and 12, and for supporting or confining and properly centering roasts of various sizes within the rotisserie basket. This means comprises, in the case of each basket section 11 or 12, a pair of generally longitudinal curved resilient wire spring devices shown generally at 21. Each spring device 21 comprises an outer pair of resilient supporting legs 22, formed straight and having their ends secured by welding or the like to the inner sides of the diametrically extending frame bars 14 of the particular basket section. The legs 22 are spaced inwardly of the ends of the bars 14 at each side of the tudinally on each basket section as best shown in Figure 3. The opposite sides of the curved and tapered loops 23 diverge outwardly toward the outer ends of the legs 22 and are integrally connected with the legs by curved or rounded portions 25. The resilient wire devices 21 of each basket section 11 or 12 extend fully away from the cylindrical side wall of the basket section and toward its open side and toward the opposite or companion basket section.
Wlihflhe"liasketsections'll and 12 are in the closed positiom'of Figured, the'narrowbr'taperedendsof the resilient wire devices 21 of the opposed basket sections overlap and interfit in the manner shown in Figures 1 and'2, when no roast or meat cut-is within the rotisserie basket?" The devices 21 are VeryresiIient or springy,
and will readily yield outwardly toward the cylindrical sidewalls-of the basket sections, defined by the wires 16 andl7;
Rig'idly secured by welding or the like to the diametrically extending'bar 14 at one end of the basket section cured-f it in axial alignment with the shaft 26. The
shaft 27 is also adapted to be supported and rotated by theconventional supporting and driving mechanism of the rotisserie; The shaft 27 may carry a'heat-insulated handle extension 28, as shown.
Inuse,'the basket sections 11 and 12 are opened as shownin Figure 3, and a single large roast, such as a roast of beef, leg of'lamb, chicken or other fowl, or a plurality of smaller roasts may be placed within either semi 'cylindrical basket section 11 or 12. The other basket section is now swung to the closed position over the basket section holding the roast or roasts, and the hooks 19 are engaged with the keepers 20 and the rotisserie basket is ready to be placed in the rotisserie for cooking the roast.
When the basket sections are closed, the spring devices 2l 'will readily yield outwardly toward parallelism with the cylindrical side Wall of the rotisserie basket, and the devices 21 will exert'a yielding confining or holding force upon the roast and also tend to center the roast inside of the rotisserie basket during the cooking operation. If two' small roasts are'to be cooked at once, instead of one larger-roast, the 'interfitting and coacting pairs of resilient Wire devices 21 at the opposite ends of the basket will then serve to hold, center and confine the two roasts within the basket. The presence of the resilient devices 21 "r'enders it unnecessary to truss or tie the roasts with cord or the like, prior to placing them within the rotisserie basket. The devices 21 also serve to prevent a large roast or one or more smaller roasts from moving inside of the basket while the same is rotating during th 'cookingoperation.
It is thus seen that I have provided a highly simplified and substantially unitary rotisserie basket, free from separable parts likely to become lost, and constructed and arranged to support and confine a large roast or a plurality of smaller roasts within the basket without the use of ties ortrusses upon the roast during cooking. I have found that the use of my rotisserie basket greatly simplifies the cooking procedure and saves a great deal of time in the cooking operation. The device is easy to clean with a brush and suitable detergent, and the construction is sturdy, light-weight and long lasting with reasonable care.
It is to be understood that the form of the'invention herewith shown and described is to be taken as a preferred example of the same, and that various changes in the shape, size and arrangement of parts may be resorted. to, without departing. from the spirit of the invention' of the-scopeof the sub-joined claims.
4 Having thus described my invention, I claim:
1. Aaotisserie basketcomprising a companion pair--- of hingedly connected substantially semi-cylindrical basket halves, each basket half having a pair of end substantially semi-circular rigid frame members and a pair of spaced longitudinal rigid frame members connecting the end frame members, spaced longitudinal wires extending between and connected with the end frame members of each basket half, spaced circumferentially extending wires secured to and crossing the longitudinal wires 'of each basket half and forming with the longitudinal wires an open mesh Wire side wall for the basket half, means for detachably securing the basket halves together in opposed relation, means connected with'one basket half for supporting the basket halves in a rotisserie, and a pair of longitudinally opposed resilient wire loops secured to the end rigid frame members of each basket half, each wire loop being curved longitudinally and normally extending fully away from the wire side wall of the basket half carrying the wire loop, each wire loop tapering longitudinally inwardly from the end frame member carrying it and having a relatively narrow closed inner end which is rounded, said end being normally freely disposed near the longitudinal center of the basket half carrying the particular wire loop and projecting somewhat laterally into the other basket half of the rotisserie basket, whereby said closed ends of corresponding wire loops of the companion pair of basket halves cross and interfit when the basket halvesare in opposed closed relation, said Wire loops adapted to yield outwardly toward the side walls of the basket halves and to receive and grip a roast for supporting and centering the same within the rotisserie basket.
forming a substantially cylindrical rotisserie basket, means for detachably securing the basket halves in opposed closed relation, shaft means carried by the opposite ends of one basket half for supporting the rotisserie basket upon a rotisserie mechanism, and a pair of longitudinally op posed elongated resilient wire loops for each basket half,
said loops being curved and extending fully away from the side wall of the basket half which carries the loops,
said loops including sides which converge longitudinally toward the longitudinal center of the rotisserie basket and relatively narrow curved closed ends which terminate near the longitudinal center of the basket and generally centrally thereof, the outer ends of the sides of said loops provided with lateral extensions, said extensions directed inwardly from the side wall of the basket half carrying the loops and secured to the frame means of the basket half, the inner end portions of the wire loops of one basket half crossing and interfitting with the inner end portions of the wire loops of the other basket half when the basket halves are in opposed closed relation, all of said wire loops adapted to yield outwardly toward parallelism with the side walls of the basket halves and to I grip a roast and to support the same centrally within.v
the rotisserie basket.
References Cited in the file of this patent UNITED STATES PATENTS Lacroix May 5, 1896 Hobbs July 4, I950.v
Patent Citations
Referenced by
Original Image


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KopfShuss Wrote:
Oct 12, 2012 1:24 AM
Over a 50-year period, that comes to $80 billion annually. Near the start of the war, the U.S. Defense Department estimated the war would cost $50 billion to $80 billion. White House economic adviser Lawrence Lindsey was dismissed in 2002 after suggesting the price of invading and occupying Iraq could reach $200 billion. "The direct costs for the war were about $800 billion, but the indirect costs, the costs you can't easily see, that payoff will outlast you and me," said Lawrence Korb, a senior fellow at American Progress, a Washington, D.C. think tank, and a former assistant secretary of defense under Ronald Reagan.


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You are hereHome
Mazur's theorem on torsion of elliptic curves
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Mazur's theorem on torsion of elliptic curves
Theorem 1 (Mazur).
Let be an elliptic curve. Then the torsion subgroup is exactly one of the following groups:
Note: see Nagell-Lutz theorem for an efficient algorithm to compute the torsion subgroup of an elliptic curve defined over .
- 1 Joseph H. Silverman, The Arithmetic of Elliptic Curves. Springer-Verlag, New York, 1986.
- 2 Barry Mazur, Modular curves and the Eisenstein ideal, IHES Publ. Math. 47 (1977), 33-186.
- 3 Barry Mazur, Rational isogenies of prime degree, Invent. Math. 44 (1978), 129-162.
Mazur's theorem
torsion, elliptic curve
EllipticCurve, MordellWeilTheorem, RankOfAnEllipticCurve, TorsionSubgroupOfAnEllipticCurveInjectsInTheReductionOfTheCurve, ArithmeticOfEllipticCurves
Type of Math Object:
Major Section:
Mathematics Subject Classification14H52 no label found
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Check out the winners of 2014
Find your best beach vacation!
Updated 04/29/2014
Completed in 2000, this massive center features a 21,000-seat auditorium and an 850-seat theater. Equally impressive are the rooftop gardens landscaped with native plants and streams to mirror the surrounding mountains. Visitors must be accompanied by a guide. Tours are flexible but usually last 45 minutes. The Mormon Tabernacle Choir performs here regularly.
60 W. North Temple, Salt Lake City, Utah, 84103, United States
Website: www.lds.org
Sight Details:
Updated 04/29/2014
By bachslunch
Oct 13, 2008
The new conference center is huge and interesting to tour. There's a large rooftop garden with a great view, some artwork of varying quality, and a gigantic auditorium. The Mormon Tabernacle Choir rehearses here, and it's well worth hearing this worthy group in such a big space.


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Archive for 'Democracy' Category
Ducking for Cover
Posted on 16:56, August 15th, 2014 by Pablo
It has been fun watching National and its minions duck for cover, throw up smokescreens, attempt diversions and resort to slander and defamation in response to Nicky Hager's book. I am not sure that the revelations will have an impact outside of political circles and a media that has heretofore treaded carefully around the Prime Minister and his key lieutenants, so am not confident that they will sway the upcoming election even if more unsavoury news comes out about how National plays dirty. Perhaps as the first in a one-two punch that has Glen Greenwald's presentation on New Zealand's spying activities on Sept 17 as the follow up, Hager's revelations will stir voters from their complacency and undermine public confidence in John Key's leadership.
That remains to be seen, especially since the All Blacks have started their season.
What I do think is that staff members of agencies mentioned in the book and assorted hangers-on and wanna-be's who are part of or have links to the network of informants and dirt-mongerers that underpin National's dirty tricks operations are bound to be running pretty scared. As such, they are the Achilles Heel of National's dirty tricks operations now that they risk being exposed. Imagine if you are a staffer for a Minister or a corporate executive that exchanged information or money with Slater in return for favourable coverage or smears on opponents? Would you not see that the ugly head of plausible deniability would likely rest on blaming someone in a subordinate position who can be sacrificed in order to save the ship? Would it not by prudent to bail out early rather than be the sacrificial lamb?
Imagine if you are a local Tory candidate or some other useful blogging fool who fed information to Whaleoil's network on the personal affairs of opponents in order to discredit or blackmail them in the hope of Slater giving you a positive plug, and now realise that your communications are in Hager's hands (because it is pretty clear from Nicky's comments that there is more in his possession than what is in the book). Would you not be scrambling through your email and other communications records with the dirty tricks network to see what damage could be headed your way? Would you not be concerned about your career or livelihood once the dishonesty and depths to which you stooped are revealed? Aaron Bhatnagar, Kathryn Rich and some minor Rightwing bloggers come to mind, but there are plenty of others.
Of course, it is the corporate executives and politicians that work with Whaleoil who have the most to lose, but before they do they can take down many others with them. Thus the rational thing to do is for the rats to abandon the sinking ship rather than go down with it. Assuming that the media does its job and delves into the revelations and implications of Hager's book, the rats will be flushed out. That is why I anticipate much more amusement to come.
One postscript: What Left-leaning blogs do in NZ is no way comparable to what Slater does, nor is what he does politics as usual in a civilised democracy. Lefties may gossip obliquely about Righties' private lives and may say nasty things about them in their blogs, but none that I know of, including those that are strident and hysterical in nature, resort to trawling the opposition gutter in search of salacious or embarrassing personal details, publishing privileged information, printing interest group press releases under false pretences and colluding with public officials and private firms to denigrate and smear perceived opponents. It is one thing to openly accept union money or to have party members blogging under pseudonyms in support of Left parties or causes; it is quite another to under-handedly pollute the political blogosphere in order to destroy people.
The irony is delicious. After years of Slatering the weak, the vulnerable, the defenceless and occasionally those who deserve it, Whaleoil himself has been Slatered. After all, Nicky got his information in a Slater type of way. But unlike the original, Nicky Hager's Slatering of Whaleoil's network was done simply by using their own words rather than secret tip lines, unethically provided (de)classified government information, private back channels and gossip columnist innuendo.
It could not have happened to a more deserving crowd.
PPS: Slater is now playing the victim, saying that he is getting threats and that his private stuff was stolen (irony alert). David Farrar (who may be hyper partisan but is is nothing akin to Slater in my opinion) is doing a bit of the latter as well. Slater is also saying that the emails from Collins and Ede were on gmail accounts so could have been from anybody. As I said above, the denials and diversions are in full swing. Can shifting blame and finger pointing be far behind? People who are subordinate to or associated with the key players in this scandal might do well to get out while their reputations are still intact.
Posted in Blogosphere, Democracy, governance, journalism, Media, Politics | 10 Comments | Read More »
Culture, strategy and an end to the phony war
Posted on 08:07, August 14th, 2014 by Lew
It is a truth universally acknowledged that, in business and elsewhere, culture eats strategy for lunch.
Nicky Hager's latest book Dirty Politics (which I haven't read, but here's Danyl's summary) seems certain to cause a strategic shift in the electoral landscape. It should give credence to some of the left's claims about the National party, and turn public and élite scrutiny on the character and activities of the Prime Minister and his closest aides, including his apparently-extensive irregular corps of bin men, turd-mongers and panty-sniffers. To do so is probably its primary purpose, and the timing and cleverly-built hype around the book reflects this.
But what I hope is that it also produces a cultural shift in New Zealand politics — weakening, or at least rendering more transparent, the intrigue and back-room, or back-door, dealing that characterises this sort of politics.
The book apparently alleges that the Prime Minister's office is at the heart of a broad network of nefarious intelligence and blackmail, where they collect and hold a lien over the career or private life of everyone close to power. Nobody is their own person; everyone is owned, to some extent, by the machine. Patrick Gower wrote before the 2011 election that John Key owns the ACT party, and Hager's book seems to substantiate this, detailing how they forced Hide's resignation, in favour of Don Brash.
That is culture, not strategy, and it exerts considerable influence on those over whom the lien is held.
Immediately upon the book's release, Cameron Slater noted that some journalists, and some Labour and Green MPs, would be getting nervous. Well, good. If there has emerged some sort of mutual-assured destruction pact to manage this culture, ending it could be Nicky Hager's lasting contribution to New Zealand. Let the comfortable and the cozy live in fear for a bit. This includes Kim Dotcom, who claims to hold such intrigue against the Prime Minister, and is the target of a similar campaign, though it remains in abeyance.
This is a phony war about preserving the position of political élites on both sides of the ideological divide, to the general detriment of the sort of politics we actually need as a nation. Unlike the original MAD pact, we don't risk the end of the world if this all blows up — we just might get our political and media systems cleaned out.
At least that's the theory. I'm not very optimistic — cultural systems are sticky and resilient, and clearly many people have much invested in them. As we have seen with bank bailouts and phone hacking, the system can't be destroyed from outside, and the influence wielded applies also to anyone who might be called upon to investigate.
The final point is about intelligence and security. The book alleges that the Prime Minister's office released information from the Security Intelligence Service to these people, and that National staffers illicitly accessed Labour's computers. The documents that form Hager's source material also were apparently illicitly obtained from Cameron Slater's website during an outage. That's probably the most serious cultural indicator: sometimes you have to fight fire with fire. We are well beyond due for a serious discussion about the acceptable bounds of espionage, leakage and spying, and if Nicky Hager's book generates this debate, he will have done Aotearoa a great service.
Posted in Blogosphere, cultural difference, Democracy, Intelligence and Security, Politics, Propaganda | 6 Comments | Read More »
Eye Candy, Window Dressing and Deep Pockets.
Posted on 15:06, July 29th, 2014 by Pablo
I came back from six weeks abroad to see the beginning of the Internet Party's "Party party" launches. It leaves me with some questions.
It seems that what the Internet Party has done is this. Using Kim Dotcom's wallet as a springboard, it has selected a candidate group largely made up of attractive metrosexuals (only a few of whom have political experience), recruited as window dressing a seasoned (and also attractive) leftist female as party leader (even though she has no experience in the IT field), and run a slick PR campaign featuring cats that is long on rhetoric and promises and short on viable policies. The stated aim is to get out the apathetic youth vote and thereby reach the three percent electoral threshold.
The strategic alliance with the Mana Party makes sense, especially for Mana. They get additional resources to more effectively campaign for at least two electorate seats, especially given that it looks like the Maori Party is moribund and the Maori electoral roll will be more contestable even if Labour tries to reclaim its historical support in it. The Internet Party gets to coattail on Mana's activism and the presence of relatively seasoned cadres on the campaign trail. Between the two, they might well reach the five percent threshold, although current polling suggests something well less than that. The lack of political experience in the Internet Party could be problematic in any event.
But I am still left wondering what the IP stands for and how it proposes to effect change if its candidates are elected. We know that the IP came about mostly due to Dotcom's hatred of John Key. But Dotcom is ostensibly not part of the IP, which makes his attention-grabbing presence at its public events all the more puzzling. Leaving aside Dotcom's background and baggage for the moment, imagine if major financial donors stole the stage at Labour, National or Green Party rallies. What would the reaction be? Plus, hating on John Key is not a policy platform, however much the sentiment may be shared by a good portion of the general public (and that is debatable).
Giving free internet access to all seems nice, but how and who is going to pay for that? Wanting to repeal the 2013 GCSB Act and withdraw from the 5 Eyes intelligence network sounds interesting, but how would that happen and has a cost/benefits analysis been run on doing so? Likewise, opposition to the TPP seems sensible, but what is its position on trade in general? The policies on the environment and education seem laudable (and look to be very close to those of the Greens), and it is good to make a stand on privacy issues and NZ independence, but is that enough to present to voters?
More broadly, where does IP stand on early childhood education, pensions, occupational health and safety, immigration, transportation infrastructure, diplomatic alignment, defense spending or a myriad of other policy issues? Is it anything more than a protest party? Nothing I have seen in its policy platform indicates a comprehensive, well thought roadmap to a better future. In fact, some of the policy statements are surprisingly shallow and in some cases backed with citations from blogs and newspapers rather than legitimate research outlets.
Is having attractive candidates, catchy slogans and a narrow policy focus enough for IP to be a legitimate political contender?
I have read what its champions claim it to be, and have read what its detractors say it is. I am personally familiar with two IP candidates and have found them to be earnest people of integrity and conviction who want more than a narrow vendetta-driven agenda opportunistically married to an indigenous socialist movement. I would, in fact, love to see it succeed because I think that the political Left in NZ needs more varied forms of representation in parliament than currently available.
So my question to readers is simple: is the IP a viable and durable option in the NZ political landscape, or is it doomed to fail?
One thing is certain. If dark rumours are correct, the government has some unpleasant surprises for the IP in the weeks leading to the election. If that happens, it may take more than Glenn Greenwald and his revelations about John Key and the GCSB to redeem the IP in the eyes of the voting public. I would hope that both Dotcom and his IP candidates are acutely aware of what could be in store for them should the rumours prove true, and plan accordingly.
Posted in An inclusive society, Democracy, elections, governance, History, Make a difference, Parliament, Politics | 6 Comments | Read More »
What is success for Internet MANA?
Posted on 23:29, June 10th, 2014 by Lew
In the previous two posts I've covered the strategic rationales behind the Internet MANA alliance, and how, even if they spend their money very inefficiently, they are still very likely to gain a stronger presence in Parliament. But what does success actually look like for Internet MANA?
This is a complex question to answer because Internet MANA, for all its potential, is a mess of vanity projects existing in a state of ideological and pragmatic tension. But tensions all resolve sooner or later.
Kim Dotcom: Disruption (a change of government, or 10%)
To get his extradition case thrown out, Kim Dotcom needs to change the government, and prevail upon an incoming Minister of Justice that he and his party are great assets to that government.
The likelihood of this is slim, because he has already antagonised Labour, and because the leader of his own party has insisted she will not be led on the matter. Other members of the radical left groups aligned with the party are probably supportive of his ideological aim here, if only due to generalised anti-authoritarianism and anti-Americanism. And the other branch of Kim Dotcom's game is fame, or notoriety, and if he can put his disruption engine in parliament, he will gain that, and it may provide him strategic cover for other manoeuvres regardless of who is in government.
The other way it could happen is if Internet MANA shocks everyone and polls very high — say, 10% — which would ruin almost everyone's coalition plans. This is also extremely unlikely, but clearly it is Kim Dotcom's hope, and it would be the purest sort of success for everyone involved.
Laila Harré: A launch (5%+) or a lifeboat (3%)
There's a quirk here: Te Mana gets list places 1,3 and 4; Internet Party 2, 5 and 6, after which they alternate. So if they win five seats or fewer, Te Mana MPs will outnumber the Internet Party's. If they win six or more seats, the numbers are more or less even. This provides a strong incentive for the Internet Party to perform, and also suggests shrewd negotiation by Te Mana.
In the event that the Internet Party bring Harré only into parliament (four seats or fewer), or if Kim Dotcom withdraws his cash and the party structure is no longer found to be self-sustaining, it seems very likely that Harré would join Te Mana formally. While her history in parties of this sort is its own guide, I suspect they would welcome her and it would be a fruitful arrangement: a win, of sorts, both for her and Te Mana.
The Internet Party: A future (7%)
Te Mana and Hone Harawira: The only way is up
The Left: It's complicated
There remains the slight possibility that they will bring enough MPs into parliament to make a chaotic and unholy alliance of the left a just slightly less-bad alternative to the Golden Age of John Key. As an aside: the better the Greens do, the better for Internet MANA post-election; and if nothing else they should hopefully form a strong ideological and generational counterpoint to New Zealand First, which I fear starts to fancy itself as the UKIP of the South Seas.
Aotearoa as a whole
Posted in Democracy, elections, Parliament, Politics | 11 Comments | Read More »
Phil Sage in comments to my previous post about Internet MANA observes that "The question is whether Kim Dotcom's money will translate into poll support and votes." I have no knowledge of what's going on inside the Internet MANA HQ bar what's been reported in the media, but those reports indicate a large full-time campaign staff, and that will burn a large share of the money. Matthew Hooton was on the wireless yesterday scorning this approach and saying the money will be pumped into glossy brochures and Internet ads nobody will watch. Which might be fair enough.
But wait, we actually have some data! Each election, David Farrar helpfully puts together a breakdown of party votes won versus dollars spent (CPV). The 2008 and 2011 tables were stolen from DPF, with thanks.
In 2011, almost all parties spent less than $5 per vote — exceptions were the Conservatives ($32), ACT ($26) and Social Credit ($20).
In 2008 the expenditure was higher and the field more spread, probably because the result was less certain and the stakes higher. (EDIT: Also, it appears the broadcast allocation was not included in the 2011 figures). The two main parties again spent less than $5, most others spent $10-15, and there were two outliers — RAM ($49) and Social Credit ($55).
Internet MANA in 2014
The first point here is that high polling tends to correlate with low CPV. Incumbency and brand value count for a great deal. So it is unlikely that any new party would be able to achieve good CPV by any means. To match the major parties Internet MANA would need to poll 25%, in which scenario Labour would effectively cease to exist. Even though that's only a little over half of the "missing million", it's not happening.
My guess in the post was that Internet MANA would get 2-3% for $3 million. That would mean per-vote spending of around $50, far higher than any of the parties in 2011, on a par with the unelectable outliers in 2008. I still think that's the most likely outcome.
If they tank and gain only what the combined Internet and Mana parties are polling now (1-1.5%) they would have outspent 2011′s most profligate parties by a factor of three in terms of CPV. This has to be the worst conceivable outcome for Internet MANA, and even so, it very probably yields them a second MP, assuming either Hone Harawira or Annette Sykes wins their seat. Anything more than this is gravy. Te Mana teaming up with Kim Dotcom is, at least tactically, a no-lose situation.
If they match 2011 CPV outliers the Conservatives, they would need to pull at least 100,000 votes — a tenth of their missing million — which would yield 5-7 MPs and make them a force to be reckoned with between now and 2017, giving them a platform to profoundly disrupt the plans of every other party in NZ politics. It's unlikely, but with this sort of money, it's not impossible.
UPDATE: Andrew Geddis points out in comments that I've failed to account for the electoral spending limit, which prevents Internet MANA from blowing the whole $3 million on declarable election expenses, which is what the cited 2008 and 2011 numbers cover. The expenditure limit is $25,700 for a constituency candidate and $1,091,000 for a registered political party plus $25,700 per electorate contested by the party.
So all the CPV figures in that last table are about double what they will be in reality, which means the premise and conclusions of this post are rather weaker than they seemed.
Posted in Democracy, Parliament | 7 Comments | Read More »
Mongrel renegades, castaways, and cannibals
Posted on 10:09, June 9th, 2014 by Lew
So Herman Melville described the crew of the Pequod. While it probably seems tendentious to equate them to the Internet MANA party, that seems to be how Kim Dotcom, at least, regards himself — as Captain Ahab, nailing his doubloon to the mast and urging them to seek the destruction of his Prime Ministerial Moby-Dick. But in spite of the many failings he, or Ishmael, attributed to them, that crew were good people, enormously effective, and very nearly successful in their hopeless task of hunting a single whale across all the oceans of the world.
In spite of Dotcom's megalomania, Key — unlike the white whale — just doesn't care that much. But in any case, the hauling-together of two unlikely vessels that form the Internet MANA alliance is more interesting than one rich eccentric's personal grudge, or his attempts to avoid extradition.
The conventional reading of Internet MANA — even among some on the left — is that Kim Dotcom has colonised the Mana movement, buying himself a tame savage who'll do his dirty work for him. But I don't think so: I think the Internet Party is trying to bite off more than it can chew.
The Mana movement has always been about those outside the political mainstream. Even while he was forced into collaboration, Hone Harawira was plain about his radicalism. His legacy — barring some major change — is unlikely to be that period, or Te Mana, but the previous three decades of dogged activism in service of his people. One of these was his role in the haka party incident which demonstrated — or rather, reiterated after a long hiatus — to Pākehā New Zealand that Māori were't going to take it.
Even so, if it were just Harawira this colonisation line might be fair — he's a tough and principled guy, but running a fringe party without a benefactor — in the form of an electoral liege, or a millionaire backer, or both — is hard going. (Ask Winston Peters.) But Harawira is not alone. Both Annette Sykes and John Minto have decades of unglamorous and largely unrewarded activism behind them, and enormous credibility. Not among the National and Labour-voting public, but in radical and Māori circles, where it counts for their purposes. There is clearly some division — Sue Bradford quit the party, prompting a rush of right-wingers who have for decades said the most vile things about her to praise her integrity. But all in all, few people who know them believe that all of Harawira, Minto, and Sykes can be bought, in one go.
To which add Laila Harré. Many people have written that her appointment as leader of the Internet Party brings it credibility, and I agree. It is a brave, or reckless, appointment from Kim Dotcom's perspective, because Harré is bigger than he is and, if elected, will influence the party more by leading it than he will by funding it — especially when his largesse runs out, as it inevitably will. Her parliamentary achievements have been limited because of her commitment to activism, but her record outside parliament has been more significant. She has demonstrated she can't be bought, and is willing to hold her own line and walk away from a bad political situation, even when the stakes are very high.
What's cleverest about this alliance is how neatly it separates ends and means. Morgan Godfery has argued persuasively that the alliance is a deeply conventional bit of strategy and an obvious next-step, from a Māori nationalist perspective, both mainstream and nationalist-insurgent political vehicles for Tino Rangatiratanga having been thoroughly co-opted by mainstream (white) imperatives. I would say further that it indicates a strategic maturity we have not yet seen from Māori parliamentary parties, and an elaboration of the māori party's strategy of pragmatic coupling, though this time, to a vehicle it can more readily control. At least in this case, the Internet Party's agenda is clear.
The two parties seem incongruous, and they are — but what they have in common is a claim to stand for those who feel like mainstream politics doesn't speak for them, or listen to them. Both parties have links to the Occupy movement, and the policy platforms are pitched at groups with some core interests in common: those who are (or feel) criminalised or oppressed by the mainstream, and who wish to disrupt it. These include tech-libertarians and utopian futurists, internet "pirates" and disaffected geeks, anti-GCSB and TPPA activists, land rights and Māori sovereignty activists, actual socialists (as opposed to the Labour kind), the very poor and economically marginalised (especially rural, Māori), marijuana smokers, and a more fringey element of anti-Fluoride campaigners and other assorted cranks and conspiracists. In aggregate it seems clear that these people comprise more than 5% of the electorate — if only you can get them to vote. And that's what Kim Dotcom's millions are for: not so much to persuade them of a single, coherent policy platform, but to fly a radical banner to which the disruptors can flock. For this purpose they need not be all of one kind.
Te Mana has its own marginal voters, which comprise less than 1% of the electorate, and because of the difficulty of persuading it seems unlikely the Internet Party will mobilise much more. But a party vote total of 1.5% should see a second MP, and anything much above 2% should see a third, and this does not seem totally implausible. Even if these are "new" voters — not drawn from Labour or Greens — this probably comes at cost to the wider left if mainstream swing-voters are scared from Labour to National by the prospect of a left coalition including Internet MANA, as Danyl and Russell Brown have suggested. It might well be that the success of Internet MANA weakens Labour's prospects, but it seems to have little chance of victory anyway, and has declared against Internet MANA, so a robust challenge from the left — as well as the one it has had from John Key on the right — is probably a good thing in the long term. What cares Mana for the neoliberal Pākehā Labour party's fortunes?
Paradoxically, the addition of Internet Party voters would give Mana voters a stronger chance at locking the Internet party — and Harré — out if they are suspicious of Kim Dotcom's influence. Harawira is facing a strong challenge in Te Tai Tokerau, but Waiariki is also close. If Labour, Green or Māori party voters tactically support Annette Sykes, hers could be the anchor seat. In this case, the second MP (whether he wins Te Tai Tokerau or not) would be Hone Harawira, with Harré third. Given that two or three MPs seems much more plausible than four or five, the most likely outcome seems to be that Te Mana is no worse off, possibly better off, and has a chance to swap Sue Bradford for the much more politically-viable Laila Harré. It looks less like the Internet Party colonising the Mana movement than the opposite.
Posted in Democracy, Parliament, Politics, Take Māori | 7 Comments | Read More »
The hazards of MMP
Posted on 10:14, June 5th, 2014 by Lew
David Cunliffe's apparently-rash pledge to scrap the coat-tail rule that permits a party with less than 5% of the party vote to bring in additional MPs as long as it wins an electorate within 100 days turns out to not be quite so bold: it looks as if they simply intend to introduce Iain Lees-Galloway's member's bill — currently before Parliament — enacting (most of) the recommendations of the Electoral Commission as government legislation. That isn't bad. It initially seemed as if he intended to ram through just this one cherry-picked rule under urgency, and some of us overreacted to it. There are still problems with the plan, but they are more complex.
Anyway, the episode throws light upon a lot of the tradeoffs and subtleties inherent in MMP — the major one of which is whether proportionality or equity in the distribution of proportionality is more crucial.
What MMP is good for
What it is not is an elegant expression of noble political aims. I guess this is why traditionalists dislike it viscerally: it feels kinda shabby, but it works.
"Rorts" and electorate-level match-fixing
Two things to add. The first is that the electorate clearly isn't inclined to punish the ACT and UnitedFuture parties, at least not locally, because in the solitude of a cardboard booth, orange marker in hand, self-interest tends to overcome ethical compunctions. But the appeal to such compunctions is still the only way to reduce the viability of the "rorts", so it is natural that those opposed will try to jawbone those compunctions. Patrick Gower is leading the charge here — although he, too, has been consistent in his derangement about this topic since before the 2011 election.
Second, the agreement between the Internet and Mana parties where Hone Harawira's seat in Te Tai Tokerau will, they hope, bring in Internet party votes and list MPs is emphatically not of the same type as Epsom and Ōhariu, where major parties throw the electorate to exploit the coat-tail rule. Nobody is throwing anything in Te Tai Tokerau — in fact, it seems likely to be one of the most strongly-contested electorates in the country, a fact which is causing conniptions in some quarters. While the electoral outcome will look similar to the undiscerning eye, the Internet MANA deal is different — smaller parties allying to overcome structural barriers to their participation in democracy. Not only is it not only not a rort, it is perfectly just and rational behaviour in the face of an iniquitous system.
Consensus and timing of law changes
But timing matters: now that Internet MANA has declared its hand and chosen to take advantage of the coat-tail rule in a similar way as ACT and UnitedFuture, it would be unjust to change the rule immediately before the election. Depending on how things play, it might still be unjust to change the rule without further consultation after the election, because it may be that people see in the Internet MANA a new way to challenge the entrenched parties (I plan on writing more about this if I get time). For this reason it is good that John Key has ruled out supporting the Lees-Galloway bill.
Proportionality versus equity
Political clientism in an instrumental system is not so much morally or ethically wrong as it tends to degrade representativeness, and delivers huge benefits to the strongest parties — who have the ability to burn political capital to take advantage of these sorts of relationships — in ways other parties cannot. So while you get the appearance of more diverse representation, the effect is more that the liege party gets to offload political risk and responsibility to its vassals. The clearest case of the present government is the charter school policy that, had National passed it of its own volition, would have endangered Key's moderate reputation. ACT's presence in parliament — even without deputy leader Catherine Isaac, who was outrageously granted the sinecure implementing the charter schools plan — gave the government cover to implement policy they wanted, but which was too politically risky.
Self-interest dressed as principle
National's refusal to implement the findings of the commission also come clearly down to self-interest. They are so far the major beneficiaries of the coat-tail provisions, having used their two vassal parties to good effect through both terms of their government.
Ultimately while both the major parties' positions are self-interested, Labour comes closest to the right conclusion: that the iniquity of the coat-tail rule's additional proportionality is a greater cost than the additional representation gained by it is worth. The best cure for the problem is to cut the party vote threshold — to 1/120th of the party vote, or a "full seat", which would obviate the coat-tail rule. Scrapping the coat-tail rule is a rather distant second-best outcome, but doing that as well as cutting the threshold to 4% as recommended by the commission seems like the sort of compromise with which nobody will be totally happy, but which will endure.
Because functionality is what matters, not perfection.
Posted in Democracy | 23 Comments | Read More »
On Resistance to Climate Change Politics
Posted on 12:22, June 2nd, 2014 by Lew
Yesterday the Green Party released its Climate Tax Cut policy proposal comprising, mostly, a carbon tax offset by an income-tax-free threshold for individuals and a decrease in the company tax rate. There's much to be said about the cleverness of the tax-swap policy and so on, but I'm more interested in the cultural differences I observe in Green supporters (who love climate-change mitigation policies) from the rest of the populace at large (who regard them as a necessary evil at best).
Seeing that this cultural gap results in an amount of criticism from greens directed at those less enthusiastic, this morning I put it into the form of a twitter-treatise, as follows:
This seems to me a pretty fundamental map/territory problem: people are cognisant of the threat of climate change and might be willing to do something about it, but are alienated by alarmist rhetoric, guilt-trips and castigation, and policies that might inconvenience them.
The Greens as an increasingly professional and mainstream political operation are, for the most part, pretty good at staying positive on this topic. But how are they to mobilise their activist base without bringing out the elitist and badgering tendencies that come so naturally when people are so convinced of their rightness that they genuinely can't understand why everyone else doesn't agree with them?
Posted in Democracy, Environment, Politics | 8 Comments | Read More »
Should NZ renounce lethal drones?
Posted on 17:32, May 25th, 2014 by Pablo
The Diplosphere event on lethal drones held in Wellington last week was a good opportunity to hear different views on the subject. The majority consensus was that legal, moral and practical questions delegitimate their use, although one defended them and I noted, among other things, that they are just one aspect of the increased robotization of modern battlefields, are only efficient against soft targets and are seen as cost effective when compared to manned aircraft.
At the end of my remarks I proposed that we debate the idea that New Zealand unilaterally renounce the use of lethal drones in any circumstance, foreign and domestic. I noted that the NZDF and other security agencies would oppose such a move, as would our security allies. I posited that if implemented, such a stance would be akin to the non-nuclear declaration of 1985 and would reaffirm New Zealand's independent and autonomous foreign policy.
Alternatively, New Zealand could propose to make the South Pacific a lethal drone-free zone, similar to the regional nuclear free zone declared by the 1985 Treaty of Rarotonga. I noted again that countries like Australia and Chile would oppose the move (both have drone fleets and do not discount using them in anger), but that many of the Pacific Island states would likely welcome the idea.
Either declaration would in no way impact negatively on the use of non-lethal drones, whose utility is obvious. It would also leave open to interpretation whether NZ based intelligence could be used in drawing up targeting lists for foreign lethal drone strikes, a subject currently in the public eye as a result of claims that the GCSB does exactly that in places like Yemen. The PM says he is comfortable with the intelligence-sharing arrangement as well as the legitimacy of drone strikes, and added that similar intelligence was provided for ISAF drone strikes in Afghanistan (where the US and the UK deploy lethal drones on behalf of ISAF).
His confidence notwithstanding, many Kiwis are opposed to any cooperation with lethal drone programs, so the debate could be expanded to include indirect NZ involvement with them.
I think this is a debate well worth having. I realize that the security community will want to keep all options open and be very opposed to ceding any tactical advantage in future conflicts, and that extending the ban to indirect cooperation would have a negative influence on NZ's diplomatic and military-intelligence relations with its security partners.
I am cognizant that it may be a hard thing to actually do given the balance of political power currently extant in NZ and the hurdles needed to implement it should the proposition be accepted. One of the other panelists dismissed the idea of unilateral renunciation as simply impractical and said that the proper forum in which to advance it was the UN (cue Tui ad here).
Some may say that is silly to debate something that does not exist. New Zealand does not deploy lethal drones. However, UAVs are already present in NZ skies, both in civilian and military applications. This includes geological surveys and volcanic research, on the civilian side, and battlefield (tactical) surveillance in the guise of the NZDF Kahui Hawk now deployed by the army. The military continues its research and development of UAV prototypes (early R&D worked off of Israeli models), and agencies as varied as the Police, Customs and the Navy have expressed interest in their possibilities. Since non-lethal UAV platforms can be modified into lethal platforms at relatively low cost, it seems prudent to have the debate before rather than after their entry into service.
I am aware that the revulsion voiced by many against the lethal use of unmanned aerial vehicles might as well be shared with all manned combat aircraft since the effects of their deployment ultimately are the same–they deal in death from the sky. Given that commonality, the preferential concern with one and not the other appears more emotional than rational, perhaps responding to idealized notions of chivalry in war. That is another reason why the subject should be debated at length.
Such a debate, say, in the build up to a referendum on the matter, would allow proponents and opponents to lay out their best arguments for and against, and permit the public to judge the merits of each via the ballot box. That will remove any ambiguity about how Kiwis feel about this particular mode of killing.
UPDATE: Idiot Savant at No Right Turn has kindly supported the proposition. Lets hope that others will join the campaign.
Posted in Democracy, foreign policy, governance, History, identity, Intelligence and Security, International relations, NZ foreign policy, NZ Security, NZDF, Politics, Terrorism, UK, USA, War | 6 Comments | Read More »
National Lite
Posted on 17:29, May 15th, 2014 by Lew
It's been almost a year since I wrote anything here. Things have been complicated. Anyway, this will — I hope, and circumstances permitting — begin a return to participation. All thanks due to Pablo for holding things together.
Today was budget day. The carnage in Australia with Joe Hockey's first budget two days ago was worse than even the Abbott government's enemies had predicted, with deep cuts to education, welfare, superannuation, science funding and many other fields, including the imposition of a $7 surcharge for GP visits. The contrast here could not be more stark: a return to surplus not immediately thrust into lowering taxes, modest cuts in some areas, increased entitlements in others, particularly in support for young families, and notably the extension of free GP visits to children under 13 years of age.
I'm no big-city economist so I'll stick mainly to the political aspects. But it basically looks like Bill English's sixth budget — somewhat like the preceding five, but to a greater extent — does a little good and almost no evil, and that basically ruins the opposition's game plan, which relies on Bill English and John Key being terrible ogres that eat babies, rather than supporting their parents with leave entitlements. When the man touted as the Labour party's most left-wing leader in a generation is reduced to complaining that John Key has stolen his party's policy — as if that is supposed to be a bad thing — things are pretty dire. The opposition's increasing desperation over the past six years, continuously prognosticating doom over the horizon, simply looks ridiculous when the doom never arrives. The government has snookered the New Zealand left by simply doing what it said it would do, and as Pablo argued persuasively at the start of the year, that makes clear how lacking the New Zealand left is in its strategic vision. They — Labour especially — are relying on the government to do their heavy ideological lifting, and when the government declines to be explicitly evil, the opposition is left with nothing to say.
When your enemies move to occupy your ideological ground, it is an opportunity to extend that ground, replacing what they claim from you with more advantageous ground deeper within your ideological territory. The trouble for Labour is that National has moved towards them, and Labour are still trying to fight them for the same ground rather than staking out more ground of their own. Six years after the "Labour lite" campaign that saw them ousted in the first place, they haven't learned. Today's budget has been tagged Labour lite by commentators including Bryce Edwards and Labour's own Rob Salmond.
Due to assiduous work by National, and a conspicuous lack of it by Labour, "Labour lite" is now more or less indistinguishable from "Labour", and Labour has offered no sort of "Labour heavy"; full-cream Labour, deep-red Labour, or whatever other metaphor you like. Because of this lack of difference, the electoral decision comes down to competence: of these two groups of mendacious grey technocrats, which is the least likely to inadvertently screw things up, or intentionally, as Jan Logie puts it, f&%k people over? That's an easy answer: Labour demonstrates its lack of general competence every single day. If it's not clear by now that they're simply not as good at being the Nats as the Nats are, when will it ever be?
It's too late, now, to change this ahead of the election. The die is cast. Labour has — again — decided to rely on political meta-strategy like syllogising failures of judgement or conduct by individual MPs out to the wider government, and it might have worked had they any sort of foundation to build upon. But they don't. Far from full-cream Labour, Labour itself is Labour lite. Light-blue, even; 98% Ideology-free. If they're going to play the National-lite game, they at least need to get good at it.
Posted in Democracy, Economy, Politics | 14 Comments | Read More »


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Electromechanical Engineering Jobs
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6 Reviews
Great Vitamin C product
Posted 10/13/2014 by Lori
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Silk in a Dispenser
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Like silk on your skin. Absorbs quickly and a little goes a loooooong way. A must have in my book!


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|Exposore to dry blood
Mar 31, 2013
Hi, I am pretty concerned, and I was hoping you can give me some peace of mind that im just being paranoid... So my question is, i was at a friends house, i saw my friends father and he had some blood on his shirt, unknowingly i went up and hugged him. I realized that he had blood on his shirt, and I had a cut on my hand that may have touched the dry blood... is it possible that i could be infected? I washed my cloths when I got back to my house.
| Response from Mr. Glenn
No, it's not possible.
HIV can not be transmitted through dry blood.
Hope this helps,
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make me choose: anon asked: the red wedding
orthe purple wedding?
War is war, but killing a man at a wedding…
(via targaryaens)
Game of Thrones + Swords (requested by agameofqueens)
(Source: alayneestone, via i-was-so-alone-i-owe-you-so-much)
#he made the character more than it was tbh #i love book draco but you don't get to SEE his struggle so much as infer it based on harry's rather limited POV and in the movies you get tom felton being amazing and deep and showing the downward spiral of someone who made himself incredibly vulnerable at his first meeting harry because he's sure that all the hype his parents have been doing towards his family and his winning personality are going to garner him all the cool friends but then the years go on and everyone but slytherin hates him and then everyone but his small group of friends hates him and then he's not even at school at all and he thinks his parents resent him for not succeeding in killing dumbledore and not helping their family get out under voldemort's control even though those are both impossible requests for someone who is still underage you can see him try and make a decision of what's right and what's easy and once he starts thinking for himself you can see him leaning towards the former because none of this is what he signed up for because from the moment his school career began he's been failing to live up to the expectations he's set for himself so he rejects everyone around him as lesser and latches onto the one thing that his parents taught him that comes in handy and condescends to anyone who'll listen and by the end you can see it eat away at him to the point where he's all but begging harry to save him from dying because he's once again failed supremely but this time he's hit the actual rock bottom and his throat is raw from his constant need to resist swallowing his pride and all he wants is a fresh gasp of air and when his parents get him back he flees without looking back because as much as they've been worn out by the war draco's been worn out by so much more in addition to that #and this all happens int he background with no more than a page of dialogue in each movie whereas the main characters have massive arcs and long lingering moments where you see them break down and build themselves back up and tom felton does it all with such cohesion and quiet brilliance that you look back and deem him a main character when he's really been lost among the massive cast only getting a few words in edgewise and sometimes i wonder if he maybe relates to draco on a level that makes everything that much more rich and nuanced#harry potter #word vomit #spoilers #malfoys appreciation blog '∞
(Source: danandblair, via targaryaens)
It's just a flesh wound.
The single greatest scene in cinematic history.
(via wardens-oath)
get to know me meme → ☆ FIVE FICTIONAL FAMILY SHIPS / FRIENDSHIPS ☆
☆ [1|5] » Aragorn & Legolas ☆
"We have trusted you this far and you have not led us astray. Forgive me. I was wrong to despair."
"Ú-moe edamed, Legolas."
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I'm limited by the technology of my time, but one day, you'll figure this out.
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Anonymous said: u should totally draw some poc!hermione bein cute man. like readin in her books or tryin 2 tame her wild hair or having to put up with ron and harry.
hermione bein cute and multitasking while she gets dressed or s/t woo
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Lady Gaga has travelled the world to bring her Little Monsters the artRAVE: The ARTPOP Ball Tour and now it was time to bring her wackiness to London.
The eccentric pop diva was in the English Capital to perform at London's O2 Arena and as expected the stage played host to a lot of unusual goings on.
Lady G took to the stage to of course sing, but also to give her thoughts on mental health as well as a few of her own personal experiences.
She wasn't just over sharing through the mic though as the hit-maker also treated fans to her original Gaga style.
After all of that you may have thought that the star needed a good sleep but in true Lady Gaga fashion the singer headed to the Box nightclub and partied until the wee hours.


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Achieving the perfect balance of sweet and savory can create a complementary flavor combination that allows both elements to shine. This recipe, created by Gina Homolka of Skinnytaste exclusively for Harry & David, does just that by adding one of our juicy Royal Riviera® Pears to stuffed chicken. The delicious result is a hearty dish that also...Read More
The Spooky Sketches Behind Our Halloween Gifts
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All Aboard the Epicurean Express!
We're delighted to announce the launch of a new Flagship store in Loveland, Colorado. This exciting new gourmet food store is located in The Promenade Shops at Centerra (5865 Sky Pond Drive, Suite G-168) across from Bent Fork Grill. It features an interior design honoring our heritage through the use of architectural elements such as lighting and a...Read More
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It seems to be the perfect time of year to break out of hibernation and get back into the swing of socializing. Or—dare we even mention it—entertaining. How fitting it is that Easter's right around the corner to help wake up our senses and warm us up to the idea of actually planning and hosting a holiday gathering. The amount of time it can...Read More
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