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The Yankees received an ace performance from their true ace last night when they needed it. Masahiro Tanaka was lights out again as he improved to an MLB-best 11-1 and the AL lead in ERA at 1.99. His 113 strikeouts trail only David Price of Tampa Bay for the best in the bigs. Now it's time for the Yankees to roll rookie right-hander Chase Whitley (2-0 2.41 ERA) out to the mound to clinch a series win. The righty is coming off arguably his best start of the year in Seattle as he went 7.2 innings and gave up just two earned runs on five hits. Whitley extended his streak of starts without a walk to four, and added six strikeouts as well. The Yankees are 5-1 in Whitley's starts this year.
The Blue Jays will turn to their ace in Mark Buehrle (10-3 2.28 ERA), in Game 2 of the series. The lefty is coming off a loss to divisional rival Baltimore, where he gave up four earned runs in 6.1 innings. Not known for his ability to put hitters away, Buehrle has struck out just 55 batters in his 94.2 innings (11 were in his opening start this year). Look for the Yankees to get the bat on the ball and hopefully take advantage of the short porch in right field.
What to Watch For…
Jeter Heating Up: Derek Jeter is 12-for-27 over his past 7 games (.444) with 7 runs, 2 doubles, and 3 RBI. Look for Jeter to stay hot, as he has a career batting average of .313 against Toronto, and in 38 at-bats, Jeter has a .368 average against tonight's starter, Mark Buehrle.
Home Sweet Home: The Yankees have won an incredible 14 straight games at home against the Toronto Blue Jays dating all the way back to 9/19/12 … the Yankees' 36-11 (.766) all-time record at the current Yankee Stadium vs. Toronto is the best for any Major League team over any other team at any current stadium, min. 30 games according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
Close Call Dominance: The Yankees are an MLB best 20-11 in games decided by two runs or less. This may be due to the fact that the Yankees' bullpen has a major league-leading 254 strikeouts in 215.1 innings.

subset: commoncrawl


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Welcome to
Sarina here... ~~ One of my many passions is food. I love cooking, eating & sharing it ;)
"Food is our common ground, a universal experience."
~ James Beard
My greatest inspiration came from Julia Child:
"You don't have to cook fancy or complicated masterpieces...just good food from fresh ingredients."
"Tomatoes and oregano make it Italian; wine and tarragon make it French. Sour cream makes it Russian; lemon and cinnamon make it Greek. Soy sauce makes it Chinese; garlic makes it good!"
*~* Feel free to leave comments & submit your favorite recipes {Very BoTTOm of the page⬇}, I LoVe trying new food!! *~*
My mom sure knows how to serve a Birthday lunch! My sister Lindsay's Birthday coincided with Super Bowl Sunday 2013 and we went all out for her…My neice insisted on putting the bouquet of roses I bought her as a table centerpiece, such a sweet gesture! Love you Lin, Happy Birthday sis! 🍴💋
1 year ago
1 note
My mom's FABULOUS & 50 Birthday Cake 🎀🎂💕🎉
1 year ago
2 notes
The cutest & sweetest Hello Kitty Cupcakes ever!!!…by @Lindsaymm84 🎀
(Taken with Instagram)
2 years ago
6 notes
My brother Kendall's 19th Birthday cake with whipped cream icing and Neapolitan icing!
Omgosh DELISH 🎂🍴😄
2 years ago
3 notes
My sister planned an exquisite meal for my Birthday Saturday night. She cooked a huge pasta casserole. Her recipe was secret bUt I do know chicken, spinach, artichoke hearts and Italian blend of cheeses were involved! She also cooked grilled asparagus with garlic and lots of butter, a meat & cheese tray and Greek salads that I will go into further detail later 😉
The brown stoneware dish, that was mine! It was three cheese stuffed tortellini with Alfredo sauce, maple bacon and mozzarella cheese! I also baked a loaf of "Everything Italian" bread and made a gallon of Sweet Iced Tea!
I went all Chrissy Teigen on my plate pic…my food was so hot and good I forgot to take a pic, so my plate looks half eaten because it was. No further explanation needed.
Needless to say we were so stuffed we couldn't make it to dessert! We waited an hour or so before putting the puff pastries in the oven…I can not thank Branson, my sister Lindsay, brother Kendall and Steven enough! My 26th Birthday dinner will be one of my favorite memories I'll cherish forever 😍
2 years ago
My sister Lindsay bought me this beautiful hand painted North Carolina Tar Heels wine glass from Girlees & Brothers Too for my Birthday! As well as a bottle of wine from Cypress Bend Vineyard
2 years ago
1 note
HANDS DOWN the only vodka I can or will drink: Smirnoff Marsh Mallow and Whipped Cream Vodka!
I drank this in New Orleans during Mardi Gras and insisted that I have it for my Birthday! It's so delicious, tasting exactly like whipped cream and roasted marshmallows. You can safely drink it chilled, straight shots. No lie. Sarina told you so! xo
2 years ago
2 notes
The beginning of my Birthday celebration: Pleasant Pizzas Baked Spaghetti and Greek salad!
We had a great time dining out, minus the freezing sideways rain. Branson ordered the spaghetti with meat sauce, and let's not forget their delicious garlic bread, we ate everything! SoOo delish! One of my favorite restaurants in Lumberton, NC!
Tonight for my sister's Birthday dinner my mom prepared a feast! Hamburger steak with gravy, homemade mashed potatoes, corn-on-the-Cobb, peas and butter biscuits with jelly! Can't complain for a Friday night haha!
Ms. Lisa invited us over for dinner where she served lasagna, garlic bread and her amazing loaded salad bar…with my fav salad topping ever, PINEAPPLE! I can't get enough of it!
Branson's Birthday dinner was soOo DELISH! Happy 28th :)*
2 years ago
24 notes
This past week we celebrated Branson's Birthday! I'm a sucker for birthdays…and of course cooking birthday cakes!
I found a really simple recipe for the cake and buttercream icing: http://www.food.com/recipe/magnolia-bakerys-vanilla-birthday-cake-and-frosting-139518
It turned out so soft and moist :)
2 years ago
34 notes
My niece Olivia Grace's Birthday CUPCAKES :)
3 years ago
1 note
My niece Olivia Grace's Birthday Party food :)
3 years ago
4 notes
Today is my niece Olivia Grace's 5th Birthday! I can't believe she is growing up on us sooo fast! I just wanted to share these pics….i find them hilarious! She is such a goober :) She tore up those Funyuns then passed right out! I guess the snacks & makeup session was too much fun!!
xo Sarina
Ice Skating in Wilmington, NC on my #Birthday a few years ago with @sarinamaynor (Taken with instagram)
Ice Skating in Wilmington, NC on my #Birthday a few years ago with @sarinamaynor (Taken with instagram)
Copyright © 2010–2014


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|20 Apr 2010
Ripping DVD's
I have setup windows media player using My Movies for cover art. I am using DVD Fab as my ripping software currently. I know how to rip the dvd's to the proper storage location and get My Movies to see them and load the cover art and my library within media center sees / plays the movies without any problems. Now for my question: Has any one figured out how to rip a dvd inside of MC? I would like to have a "button" that would allow me to rip directly inside MC without having to drop back out to the desktop. I want to set this up so that I do not have to have a keyboard / mouse hooked up to the unit. I want to be able to use a remote control to do everything. Thanks for any help / ideas.
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Web site: http://www.thomasandfriends.com/
Episode description: Spencer shows a battery-powered engine around the island, but doesn't listen when Victor warns him that batteries run out of power on occasion. Peter Sam tries to take care of everything himself when Mr. Percival attends a meeting with Sir Topham Hatt.
Rating: [TV-Y] (All Children)
Series Information: Thomas & Friends
TV Schedule
Upcoming Airdates:
- KET: Wednesday, November 12 at 1:30 pm EST
- KET: Monday, December 29 at 1:30 pm EST
Past Airdates:
- KET: Wednesday, September 10, 2014 at 1:30 pm EDT
- KET: Wednesday, July 16, 2014 at 1:30 pm EDT
- KET: Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 12:30 pm EDT
- KET2: Saturday, April 5, 2014 at 10:00 am EDT
- KET: Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 12:30 pm EDT
First aired: Saturday, September 15, 2012 (excluding any air dates prior to June 1999)
Official web site: http://www.thomasandfriends.com/
Price available upon request.
Home videos not available.


text:
How to find the bearings using sohcahtoa
Thank you.
Finding equation of a curve from the gradient function using integration
Thank you soo much.. Its so helpful!! :) Lifesaver!! you rock
Proof and application of area of sector when angle of sector is measured in radians
Please explain, why did we divide both sides of the equal sign by 2pi? Thank you so much, this video is amazing.
Proof of derivative of ln(x) by first principle.
Awesome video everything is explained very clearly thank you!
Integration of Sin^5x
Very good teacher, T.Y.:)
Factorising cyclic expression x^2(y-z)+y^2(z-x)+z^2(x-y)
Thank you for this informative video!! Could you make a video describing how we you would factorise:a^4(b-c) + b^4(c-a) c^4(a-b) Thank you in advance!!
NCEA Level 2 Algebra Excellence question Finding the radius of a circle
Thank you, watching this helped me understand something I didn't get taught in class/missed in class. I never knew that you'd be able to use b(squared)-4ac to be used to figure out an unknown that's in a quadratic equation.
Integration of 1/ sqrt (x^2+a^2)dx
THanks Very few people take on the more complex problems, And certainly it is not obvious from the books how the answer comes about. How the 1/a becomes part of the C is subtle
Related rate of change problem - A 5 cm cylinder filled constantly at the rate of 4 cm^3/sec
I tried doing this myself first. couldnt get it. thanks for the explanation
Writing equation of a parabola from the graph using the form y=k(x-a)(x-b) or y=k(x±b)^2±c
Very well explained, helped a lot. Thanks
Related rate of change problem - A 5 cm cylinder filled constantly at the rate of 4 cm^3/sec
great job! you are the only one who made me finally understand :)Thank you
Rearranging formula to make x the subject of the formula
thanks. this will definitely help me pass my maths test
Finding the coordinates of points on a curve with a given gradient
thank you sir for such helpful video, you have saved hundreds of student's head ache
Finding equation of a curve from the gradient function using integration
You've literally saved my life, thank you!


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Play World of Warcraft via SOCKS or SSH tunnel | 22 comments | Create New Account
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Play World of Warcraft via SOCKS or SSH tunnel
OK i was able to do the Socks configuration but when i entered the SSH command it said" ssh: connect to host dorms-89-223 port 22: Connection refused"
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Begich's Choice Insults Alaska - 3/16/2014 10:44 pm
Can I Please Have Some Cake? - 3/2/2014 1:57 pm
Quarterbacks And Catullus - 1/23/2014 9:29 pm
Truth In Vaccination - 12/28/2013 2:56 pm
The Next Rotten Chocolate - 12/14/2013 7:30 pm
Baracky Barack And The Begich Bunch - 11/14/2013 4:24 pm
Do As I Say, Not As I Do - 10/19/2013 7:13 pm
What's In Your Wallet? - 10/8/2013 10:15 pm
Posted: March 16, 2014 - 10:44 pm
Last month The Wall Street Journal ran a story about double standards in the Environmental Protection Agency. Administrator Gina McCarthy, failed to uncover fraud being committed by an EPA employee, John Beale. McCarty continued to allow Beale to be on the EPA payroll despite warnings and evidence he was instead committing fraud. Beale managed to take the taxpayers for $900K.
Posted: March 2, 2014 - 1:57 pm
I had a technician when I was in the USAF who was getting ready to pursue a seminary degree. He respected most of my views but made it clear I was never going to heaven if I did not accept Jesus Christ as my savior. I did not lose sleep over his concern.
We never had many conversations about homosexuals serving in the military or participating in the institution of marriage. My guess is my support of both would have been another reason I was doomed to eternal damnation.
Posted: January 23, 2014 - 9:29 pm
As a graduate of an Ivy League institution I am a firm believer in the well rounded individual. It was an affront to me when James O. Freedman became the president of my alma mater and suggested the student body be diverse as opposed to the individual being diverse. Freedman wanted to attract the individual who would be happy translating Catullus late on a Saturday night. It did not matter if that student did nothing else.
Posted: December 28, 2013 - 2:56 pm
There were 15,000-20,000 cases of paralytic polio a year in the United States before a vaccine existed. In 1988 the World Health Organization began an effort to eradicate the disease with vaccination. Since that time worldwide cases have dropped from 350,000 (1988) to 187 (2012).
Posted: December 14, 2013 - 7:30 pm
During the debate before Obamacare passed a lot of "progressives" around the country became irritated when projections were called untrue. They would pontificate about the power of predictions of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
The cost of Obamacare was estimated at about $900B over the first ten years. Obama made the claim in the 2009 State of the Union address after being elected.
Posted: November 14, 2013 - 4:24 pm
A few years back I went to a town hall meeting at Bartlett High School during the health care debate. Mark Begich assured the crowd that he would read any bill in full. He assured the crowd he would not vote for anything that hurt Alaskans.
This has been a common claim for Begich over the years. He loves to give the impression that he reads everything and acts in a balanced way.
Posted: October 19, 2013 - 7:13 pm
"Just a couple of weeks ago, Apple rolled out a new mobile operating system, and within days, they found a glitch, so they fixed it. I don't remember anybody suggesting Apple should stop selling iPhones or iPads or threatening to shut down the company if they didn't."
- Barack Obama
Posted: October 8, 2013 - 10:15 pm
I used to get a nice summary from the government about my "true compensation" as a member of the active duty military. It included my salary, my health care benefits, retirement benefits, tax benefits, and of course the ever important commissary privileges among other things. It was supposed to convince me how great my military pay was compared to the outside.
As with most military members the I found the analysis to be a joke. The military and medicine are two fields the government will never compensate at levels comparable to private work.
Posted: September 25, 2013 - 8:31 pm
Polls show just over 50% of the population does not approve of Obamacare. That is a 13 point spread over people who support the law.
Posted: September 2, 2013 - 3:52 pm
A lot of angry words are being thrown around by physicians in town. The target? Bruce Lamoureux, the CEO of Providence Alaska Medical Center (PAMC).
Back on August 12th Mr. Lamoureux made a speech in front of the Anchorage Chamber of Commerce. He made a lot of claims about health care and the role of physicians.
Posted: July 31, 2013 - 8:22 pm
Detroit was once the symbol of American industrial might. It powered the country through World War II. It still is the first city people think of when it comes to the auto industry. The city is also the birthplace of Motown. And it is the home of franchises in all 4 major US team sports.
Times have changed in the Motor City. The population has dropped 20% since 2000. There are an estimated 78,000 abandoned structures inside the city limit. And unemployment runs around 26% rivaling Greece and Spain.
Posted: July 21, 2013 - 9:21 pm
Trayvon Martin is dead. It is a tragedy.
Trayvon would be alive today if he had not attacked George Zimmerman. There is evidence he did exactly that. The end result was two people acting like fools with one now dead and the other marked for life.
Zimmerman is an idiot. He should have never approached Martin. He should have listened to the 911 operator. An argument could be made that his behavior was irresponsible and led to the death of Martin. A manslaughter conviction would have been within reason but so is his acquittal.
Being an idiot does not make someone a racist.
Posted: July 14, 2013 - 5:23 pm
In the interest of full disclosure I am a partial owner of an ambulatory surgery center.
Most people know when they turn 50 they should consider going in for a screening colonoscopy. In 2013 there is a high probability that procedure will take place in an ambulatory surgery center (ASC) and not at a hospital. It can be the source of many patient questions when it comes to the finances.
Posted: July 7, 2013 - 11:34 pm
Kidney failure used to be fatal. Hemodialysis has changed that. The story of hemodialysis is a lesson in how the health care system can succeed and fail at the same time.
Posted: July 2, 2013 - 9:13 pm
The National Security Agency (NSA) is under fire for listening in on billions of communications. Big Brother has indeed been watching and it makes people upset. Senator Mark Begich is even using the issue in his radio commercials to try and pretend he is not an Obama rubber stamp.
Posted: June 8, 2013 - 4:16 pm
Obamacare has begun its path to implementation but the significant changes hit the system next year. The run up to this has already produced some concerning trends.
Posted: May 18, 2013 - 9:34 pm
One of the lynchpins of Obamacare is the health insurance mandate. It survived the lawsuits and remained in place.
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has been tasked with tracking the mandate. It has also been tasked with following and implementing all of the new taxes inside Obamacare. It is fitting that a taxing organization has so much control. It is also ironic since Obama claimed the mandate was not a tax to save it.
Posted: May 7, 2013 - 11:05 pm
This is part of an ongoing series to try and address cost issues inside medicine.
Patients often are surprised when I tell them I will see them in 10 years after a normal colonoscopy. They often ask whether they will be safe if they wait that long.
It usually takes years for colon polyps to turn into cancers. If a patient is at average risk the data has been used to show a model of a colonoscopy every 10 years leaves risk in an acceptable range.
Posted: April 20, 2013 - 8:13 pm
Today the National Pressure Cooker Association released an angry statement. They are concerned legislation may be introduced that will require people to undergo background checks before they can purchase pressure cookers. Their main point was, "Pressure cookers don't kill people, people kill people."
Gun advocates have also been active. Some are complaining that people would have been safer at the Boston Marathon if everybody had been "packing heat." The reasoning is no terrorists with pressure cookers would have ever gone near the Boston Marathon if everybody was armed.
Posted: April 1, 2013 - 5:30 pm
The American Society For Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) has guidelines for sedation and anesthesia during endoscopy. The guidelines are designed to help physicians make decisions. In the United States most endoscopic procedures are done under moderate or conscious sedation.
Anchorage Daily News is pleased to provide this opportunity to share information, experiences and observations about what's in the news. Some of the comments may be reprinted elsewhere in the site or in the newspaper. We encourage lively, open debate on the issues of the day, and ask that you refrain from profanity, hate speech, personal comments and remarks that are off point. Thank you for taking the time to offer your thoughts.


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Lucky Jimby Kingsley Amis
Synopses & Reviews
"In That Uncertain Feeling (1955), one of Kingsley Amis's lesser novels, the narrator, John Lewis, is watching some young women play tennis, and decides to examine himself on an important question: "Why did I like women's breasts so much? I was clear on why I liked them, thanks, but why did I like them so much?" It's surprising, in a way, that Amis didn't capitalize those last words, as he was apt to do when he required any savage or emotional emphasis in his correspondence with Philip Larkin. (George Du Maurier's Trilby, for example, "might be a lot worse," he wrote. "AND A LOT BETTER.") But he seldom permitted any such heaviness to pervade his novels, and it is this very delicacy that allows one to answer the sensitive and dangerous question not Why is Lucky Jim funny? (daunting enough as an essay topic) but Why is it so funny?..." Christopher Hitchens, Atlantic Monthly (read the entire Atlantic review)
"Dixon makes little dents in the smug fabric of hypocritical, humbugging, classbound British society...Amis caught the mood of post-war restiveness in a book which, though socially significant, was, and still is, extremely funny." Anthony Burgess
"A classic comic novel, a seminal campus novel, and a novel which seized and expressed the mood of those who came of age in the 1950s. But there is more to it than that . . . Its university setting functions primarily as the epitome of a stuffy, provincial bourgeois world into which the hero is promoted by education, and against whose values and codes he rebels, at first inwardly and at last outwardly." David Lodge
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WATCH the full trailer for Plasma here – http://vimeo.com/87642006
LIKE Plasma on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/plasmamovie
FOLLOW Plasma on Twitter – http://www.twitter.com/plasmamovie
WATCH the full trailer for Plasma here – http://vimeo.com/87642006
LIKE Plasma on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/plasmamovie
FOLLOW Plasma on Twitter – http://www.twitter.com/plasmamovie
Plasma is complete. Thank you to everyone who worked on and supported our movie.
LIKE Plasma on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/plasmamovie
FOLLOW Plasma on Twitter – http://www.twitter.com/plasmamovie
I haven't been posting very often on my blog, for several reasons. One, I've been much busier than I ever have been before so I just haven't found the time to sit down and write. Two, I've been working on a lot of projects that aren't mine and therefore I can't talk about them. Three, I've been meeting a lot of great people in LA but they're also people I cannot talk about.
Because of that, which isn't a complaint, I'm insanely lucky to be in the position I'm in now, I'm going to wind down the blog. I'll be posting even less often than I have been lately and when I do post, it'll probably be extremely vague.
Also, pretty sure the handful of people who checked out the blog once won't really miss it.
By the end of 2013, I had done enough work and met enough people that I felt comfortable making the move from Chicago to Los Angeles. I was able to set up an incredible job opportunity in LA from my time working on Jekyll Island.
I'm leaving tomorrow morning, driving out by myself and should be arriving Monday evening. I'll be crashing on the couches of some friends for a few weeks at a time until I get my own place set up.
Can't wait to get out there.
Even though my contest entry for Doritos Crash the Super Bowl contest didn't win anything and received a mixed response, I wanted to do another one. So I came up with an idea and got together with Matt and Kyle to make it. They put in so much work, especially Matt on the VFX side, and I think it turned out really well. James Griffin came out to act in it, and Becky asked a friend from work if we could use her daughter, who was adorable and did a great job. Unfortunately, we yet again did not win anything but I'm still proud of the video. Check it out here: https://vimeo.com/81937586
Over the last couple months, I've been working on a low-budget feature film called, A Conspiracy on Jekyll Island. It has an amazing cast and it was a great experience. Very long hours, lots of work, and no pay, but it has been worth it. I don't want to write much more because I signed an NDA but it has been totally worth doing and the cast and crew have been some of the best people I've ever worked with. Can't wait to see the finished movie.
The past month has been almost nothing but working basically full-time on Transformers 4 and it has been insanely hard but incredible, nonetheless. Obviously I can't write much about what I've been up to but it was a lot of fun. I got to work more closely with the crew since these mostly weren't huge lockup days. Typically, there were only eight or ten PAs on set. Probably the best production experience I've had so far.
And to top it off, I was lucky enough to get invited to the wrap party. It was a great way to say goodbye to the people I met because most of them were from out of town and I may not see them again for a long time. The best part though? I was able to get my picture taken with Michael Bay, so, that was probably the best thing ever. Not every day you get to have your picture taken with one of your biggest inspirations. I'm extremely grateful to the guys who gave me all these extra days on set.


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Those are nice. You can tell she suckin in her tummy. I don't know why, don't bother me if you got a little pooch.
I agree. little pooch is kinda cute. but those breasts are fantastic!!!
#NSFW ♥ ♥ we love this ♥ ♥ http://spankingmaster69.tumblr.com/
MMMM, curvy :)
Brooke Lee Adams
Rachel Sexton. And, yes, she's over 18.
#ChichisPaLaBanda #AntojoNecesario #AyOmaQueRica #Boobs
RT if you like this nude pic of me and @breedaniels1
She got a new bikini… my new favorite!


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Welcome to ANSA Yoga
Be Better. Feel Better. Look Better. Because you are BETTER.
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MissionMy mission in teaching yoga is to help you find a part of yourself that you never knew existed and cultivate healthy habits to empower your life. The physical postures of yoga serve as a vehicle to look much deeper at yourself. I believe that learning is a life-long process and the ever-evolving nature of yoga deems it a fantastic life-long practice. Yoga, union, is far more than downward dog and a series of poses. The practice cultivates mindfulness, presence, peace of mind, awareness, and surrender. Most importantly, yoga allows you to learn who you are, what you value, and how to be the most spectacular you! It is my passion to help you in your journey, whether that is in your first downward dog or your 10,00th.
- Private customized yoga sessions.
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"Jennifer is not only a great instructor but a very intuitive teacher. Our sessions are always addressing both my body and my soul. You MUST try a class to see what I mean. Get ready to sweat and face your fears. You will grow stronger and better. I promise."
– Dr. Yoav Suprun DPT, Dip. MDT, CSCS, Founder of Sobe Spine
"There is something unbelievable special about Jennifer and how she has helped me realize there is something unbelievably special about me that I have hidden for many years."
- Private Student, CEO


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Stamping Tricks for Scrapbooks: A Guide to Enhancing Your Pages with Stampsby Betty Auth
Synopses & Reviews
Publisher Comments:
Americans will take 20 billion photographs this year alone, and scrapbooking — the craft devoted to displaying these treasured memories — is on the rise.
For scrapbook enthusiasts eager to break out of the "cookie-cutter" look of most album pages, Stamping Tricks for Scrapbooks shows how rubber stamping can bring this popular craft to a whole new level of creativity. From album covers to themed layouts, to photo frames, borders, die-cuts, and stickers, this comprehensive guide offers more than seventy unique design ideas for creating beautiful, customized albums.
Including simple instructions, clear illustrations, and helpful tips and techniques throughout, this handy how-to will enable scrapbookers of all ability levels to achieve stunning results with stamping.
This work is designed for scrapbookers who are looking for inspiration and for stampers who are looking for a new creative outlet for their stamp art. There are over 70 projects to guide the reader through all facets of scrapbooking, including: covers; stamped book plates; borders; and lettering.
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This blog is about things that interest me: books, movies, tv shows, photography, my life, things randomly that pops at me as well.
Twitter: @bluereadergal
I'm just saying that if James McAvoy ever played young Jean-Luc Picard, I might fall so hard in love that I would actually explode.
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catching fire meme → [1/8] scenes
Peeta, who spends much of the night roaming the train, hears me screaming as I struggle to break out of the haze of drugs that merely prolong the horrible dreams. He manages to wake me and calm me down. Then he climbs into bed to hold me until I fall back to sleep. After that, I refuse the pills. But every night I let him into my bed. We manage the darkness as we did in the arena, wrapped in each other's arms, guarding against the dangers that can descend at any moment.
Disney Princesses modeling the Designer Villains gowns.
i love rapunzel's
villainesses get the better outfits
(Source: a-night-in-wonderland)
A very cromulent Rule 63 Green Arrow cosplay!
(Source: epicgeekdom)
"And to me, fame is not a positive thing. The idea of being famous is a lot better than the reality. It's fantastic when you go to premieres and people cheer you, but it's not real. And it's totally not my approach to get my name on a club door just because I can."
(Source: feltonsource)
Star Wars: Episode VII Cast Revealed
Starring: John Boyega, Daisy Ridley, Adam Driver, Oscar Isaac, Domhnall Gleeson, Andy Serkis, Max Von Sydow and the original trio Harrison Ford, Carrie Fisher and Mark Hamill
Too many white guys and not enough ladies. HOWEVER. John Boyega. JOHN BOYEGA!!
Ok, I'm watching this Star Wars. Even if it does not have enough ladies because OMG BOYEGA!
AND Carrie AND Mark AND Harrison =DDDDDDD
Steampunk Han and Chewy


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Suri Cruise's Best Fashion Moments, So Far
At only 7, this little lady has donned more darling outfits than most of us could count in kindergarten.
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Sticking to her signature girly style, Suri keeps things cute in an embroidered navy dress. Her fairy-embellished wellies give the ensemble a splash of cheer.
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August 12, 2014
Are We There Yet?
Editor's note: This macroblog post was published yesterday with some content inadvertently omitted. Below is the complete post. We apologize for the error.
Anyone who has undertaken a long road trip with children will be familiar with the frequent "are we there yet?" chorus from the back seat. So, too, it might seem on the long post-2007 monetary policy road trip. When will the economy finally look like it is satisfying the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) dual mandate of price stability and full employment? The answer varies somewhat across the FOMC participants. The difference in perspectives on the distance still to travel is implicit in the range of implied liftoff dates for the FOMC's short-term interest-rate tool in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
So how might we go about assessing how close the economy truly is to meeting the FOMC's objectives of price stability and full employment? In a speech on July 17, President James Bullard of the St. Louis Fed laid out a straightforward approach, as outlined in a press release accompanying the speech:
To measure the distance of the economy from the FOMC's goals, Bullard used a simple function that depends on the distance of inflation from the FOMC's long-run target and on the distance of the unemployment rate from its long-run average. This version puts equal weight on inflation and unemployment and is sometimes used to evaluate various policy options, Bullard explained.
We think that President Bullard's quadratic-loss-function approach is a reasonable one. Chart 1 shows what you get using this approach, assuming a goal of year-over-year personal consumption expenditure inflation at 2 percent, and the headline U-3 measure of the unemployment rate at 5.4 percent. (As the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics defines unemployment, U-3 measures the total unemployed as a percent of the labor force.) This rate is about the midpoint of the central tendency of the FOMC's longer-run estimate for unemployment from the June SEP.
Notice that the policy objective gap increased dramatically during the recession, but is currently at a low value that's close to precrisis levels. On this basis, the economy has been on a long, uncomfortable trip but is getting pretty close to home. But other drivers of the monetary policy minivan may be assessing how far there is still to travel using an alternate road map to chart 1. For example, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart has highlighted the role of involuntary part-time work as a signal of slack that is not captured in the U-3 unemployment rate measure. Indeed, the last FOMC statement noted that
Labor market conditions improved, with the unemployment rate declining further. However, a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources.
So, although acknowledging the decline in U-3, the Committee is also suggesting that other labor market indicators may suggest somewhat greater residual slack in the labor market. For example, suppose we used the broader U-6 measure to compute the distance left to travel based on President Bullard's formula. The U-6 unemployment measure counts individuals who are marginally attached to the labor force as unemployed and, importantly, also counts involuntarily part-time workers as unemployed. One simple way to incorporate the U-6 gap is to compute the average difference between U-6 and U-3 prior to 2007 (excluding the 2001 recession), which was 3.9 percent, and add that to the U-3 longer-run estimate of 5.4 percent, to give an estimate of the longer-run U-6 rate of 9.3 percent. Chart 2 shows what you get if you run the numbers through President Bullard's formula using this U-6 adjustment (scaling the U-6 gap by the ratio of the U-3 and U-6 steady-state estimates to put it on a U-3 basis).
What the chart says is that, up until about four years ago, it didn't really matter at all what your preferred measure of labor market slack was; they told a similar story because they tracked each other pretty closely. But currently, your view of how close monetary policy is to its goals depends quite a bit on whether you are a fan of U-3 or of U-6—or of something in between. I think you can put the Atlanta Fed's current position as being in that "in-between" camp, or at least not yet willing to tell the kids that home is just around the corner.
In an interview last week with the Wall Street Journal, President Lockhart effectively put some distance between his own view and those who see the economy as being close to full employment. The Journal's Real Time Economics blog quoted Lockhart:
"I'm not ruling out" the idea the Fed may need to raise short-term interest rates earlier than many now expect, Mr. Lockhart said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. But, at the same time, "I'm a little bit cautious" about the policy outlook, and still expect that when the first interest rate hike comes, it will likely happen somewhere in the second half of next year.
"I remain one who is looking for further validation that we are on a track that is going to make the path to our mandate objectives pretty irreversible," Mr. Lockhart said. "It's premature, even with the good numbers that have come in ... to draw the conclusion that we are clearly on that positive path," he said.
Mr. Lockhart said the current unemployment rate of 6.2% will likely continue to decline and tick under 6% by the end of the year. But, he said, there remains evidence of underlying softness in the job sector, and, he also said, while inflation shows signs of firming, it remains under the Fed's official 2% target.
Our view is that the current monetary policy journey has made considerable progress toward its objectives. But the trip is not yet complete, and the road ahead remains potentially bumpy. In the meantime, I recommend these road-trip sing-along selections.
By John Robertson, a vice president and senior economist in the Atlanta Fed's research department
August 12, 2014 in Economics, Employment, Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy, Inflation, Labor Markets, Monetary Policy, Pricing, Unemployment | Permalink
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Major problems with U6 include the fact that someone working 34 hours but wants to work 35 or more is considered unemployed (not partially unemployed) -- a very loose definition of an unemployed person. Also, some policymakers conflate marginally attached with discouraged workers. Only one-third of the marginally attached are discouraged about job prospects (the other two-thirds didn't look for work because of illness, school, etc. -- i.e., for reasons monetary policy cannot address). So there are very good reasons for President Bullard's objective function to be based on U3 rather than U6. Additionally, what policymakers should consider, to follow through with your analogy, is when you arrive at your destination should you still have the accelerator pressed to the floor? Or does it not make sense to let off of the gas a bit as you approach your destination (to avoid driving the minivan right through your home).
Posted by:
Conrad DeQuadros |
August 14, 2014 at 12:57 PM
July 18, 2014
Part-Time for Economic Reasons: A Cross-Industry Comparison
With employment trends having turned solidly positive in recent months, attention has focused on the quality of the jobs created. See, for example, the different perspectives of Mortimer Zuckerman in the Wall Street Journal and Derek Thompson in the Atlantic. Zuckerman highlights the persistently elevated level of part-time employment—a legacy of the cutbacks firms made during the recession—whereas Thompson points out that most employment growth on net since the end of the recession has come in the form of full-time jobs.
In measuring labor market slack, the part-time issue boils down to how much of the elevated level of part-time employment represents underutilized labor resources. The U-6 measure of unemployment, produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, counts as unemployed people who say they want to and are able to work a full-time schedule but are working part-time because of slack work or business conditions, or because they could find only part-time work. These individuals are usually referred to as working part-time for economic reasons (PTER). Other part-time workers are classified as working part-time for non-economic reasons (PTNER). Policymakers have been talking a lot about U-6 recently. See for example, here and here.
The "lollipop" chart below sheds some light on the diversity of the share of employment that is PTER and PTNER across industries. The "lolly" end of the lollipop denotes the average mix of employment that is PTER and PTNER in 2013 within each industry, and the size of the lolly represents the size of the industry. The bottom of the "stem" of each lollipop is the average PTER/PTNER mix in 2007. The red square lollipop is the percent of all employment that is PTER and PTNER for the United States as a whole. (Note that the industry classification is based on the worker's main job. Part-time is defined as less than 35 hours a week.)
The primary takeaways from the chart are:
- The percent of the workforce that is part time varies greatly across industries (compare for example, durable goods manufacturing with restaurants).
- All industries have a greater share of PTNER workers than PTER workers (for example, the restaurant industry in 2013 had 32 percent of workers who said they were PTNER and about 13 percent who declared themselves as PTER).
- All industries had a greater share of PTER workers in 2013 than in 2007 (all the lollipops point upwards).
- Most industries have a lower share of PTNER workers than in the past (most of the lollipops lean to the left).
- Most industries have a greater share of part-time workers (PTER + PTNER) than in the past (the increase in PTER exceeds the decline in PTNER for most industries).
Another fact that is a bit harder to see from this chart is that in 2007, industries with the largest part-time workforces did not necessarily have the largest PTER workforces. In 2013, it was more common for a large part-time workforce to be associated with a large PTER workforce. In other words, the growth in part-time worker utilization in industries such as restaurants and some segments of retail has bought with it more people who are working part-time involuntarily.
So the increase in PTER since 2007 is widespread. But is that a secular trend? If it is, then the increase in the PTER share would be evident since the recession as well. The next lollipop chart presents evidence by comparing 2013 with 2012:
This chart shows a recent general improvement. In fact, 25 of the 36 industries pictured in the chart above have experienced a decline in the share of PTER, and 21 of the 36 have a smaller portion working part-time in total. Exceptions are concentrated in retail, an industry that represents a large share of employment. In total, 20 percent of people are employed in industries that experienced an increase in PTER from 2012 to 2013. So while overall there has been a fairly widespread (but modest) recent improvement in the situation, the percent of the workforce working part-time for economic reasons remains elevated compared with 2007 for all industries. Further, many people are employed in industries that are still experiencing gains in the share that is PTER.
Why has the PTER share continued to increase for some industries? Are people who normally work full-time jobs still grasping those part-time retail jobs until something else becomes available, has there been a shift in the use of part-time workers in those industries, or is there a greater demand for full-time jobs than before the recession? We'll keep digging.
By John Robertson, a vice president and senior economist, and
Ellyn Terry, a senior economic analyst, both of the Atlanta Fed's research department
July 18, 2014 in Data Releases, Employment, Labor Markets, Unemployment | Permalink
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I think one of your axes on the lollipop charts are mislabeled.
They both read % employed that are PTNER; shouldn't one of them read % employed that are PTER?
Posted by:
Heidi |
July 18, 2014 at 05:11 PM
We noticed that, and we made that fix shortly after the chart's initial posting. We appreciate your close reading of the data!
Posted by:
macroblog |
July 21, 2014 at 03:45 PM
June 20, 2014
The Wrong Question?
Just before Wednesday's confirmation from Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) does indeed still see slack in the labor market, Jon Hilsenrath and Victoria McGrane posted a Wall Street Journal article calling notice to the state of debate:
Nearly four-fifths of those who became long-term unemployed during the worst period of the downturn have since migrated to the fringes of the job market, a recent study shows, rarely seeking work, taking part-time posts or bouncing between unsteady jobs. Only one in five, according to the study, has returned to lasting full-time work since 2008.
Deliberations over the nature of the long-term unemployed are particularly lively within the Federal Reserve.... Fed officials face a conundrum: Should they keep trying to spur economic growth and hiring by holding short-term interest rates near zero, or will those low rates eventually spark inflation without helping those long out of work?
The article goes on to provide a nice summary of the ongoing back-and-forth among economists on whether the key determinant of slack in the labor market is the long-term unemployed or the short-term unemployed. Included in that summary, checking in on the side of "both," is research by Chris Smith at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
We are fans of Smith's work, but think that the Wall Street Journal summary buries its own lede by focusing on the long-term/short-term unemployment distinction rather than on what we think is the more important part of the story: In Hilsenrath and McGrane's words, those "taking part-time posts."
We are specifically talking about the group officially designated as part-time for economic reasons (PTER). This is the group of people in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Household Survey who report they worked less than 35 hours in the reference week due to an economic reason such as slack work or business conditions.
We have previously noted that the long-term unemployed have been disproportionately landing in PTER jobs. We have also previously argued that PTER emerges as a key negative influence on earnings over the course of the recovery, and remains so (at least as of the end of 2013). For reference, here is a chart describing the decomposition from our previous post (which corrects a small error in the data definitions):
Our conclusion, clearly identified in the chart, was that short-term unemployment and PTER have been statistically responsible for the tepid growth in wages over the course of the recovery. What's more, as short-term unemployment has effectively returned to prerecession levels, PTER has increasingly become the dominant negative influence.
Our analysis was methodologically similar to Smith's—his work and the work represented in our previous post were both based on annual state-level microdata from the Current Population Survey, for example. They were not exactly comparable, however, because of different wage variables—Smith used the median wage while we use a composition-adjusted weighted average—and different regression controls.
Here is what we get when we impose the coefficient estimates from Smith's work into our attempt to replicate his wage definition:
Some results change. The unemployment variables, short-term or long-term, no longer show up as a drag in wage growth. The group of workers designated as "discouraged" do appear to be pulling down wage growth and in ways that are distinct from the larger group of marginally attached. (That is in contrast to arguments some of us have previously made in macroblog that looked at the propensity of the marginally attached to find employment.)
It is not unusual to see results flip around a bit in statistical work as this or that variable is changed, or as the structure of the empirical specifications is tweaked. It is a robustness issue that should always be acknowledged. But what does appear to emerge as a consistent negative influence on wage growth? PTER.
None of this means that the short-term/long-term unemployment debate is unimportant. The statistics are not strong enough for us to be ruling things out categorically. Furthermore, that debate has raised some really interesting questions, such as Glenn Rudebusch and John Williams's recent suggestion that the definition of economic slack relevant for the FOMC's employment mandate may be different from the definition appropriate to the FOMC's price stability mandate.
Our message is pretty simple and modest, but we think important. Whatever your definition of slack, it really ought to include PTER. If not, you are probably asking the wrong question.
By Dave Altig, executive vice president and research director, and
Pat Higgins, a senior economist, both of the Atlanta Fed's research department
June 20, 2014 in Employment, Labor Markets, Unemployment | Permalink
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June 09, 2014
Looking Beyond the Job-Finding Rate: The Difficulty of Finding Full-Time Work
Despite Friday´s report of a further solid increase in payroll employment, the utilization picture for the official labor force remains mixed. The rate of short-term and long-term unemployment as well as the share of the labor force working part time who want to work full time (a cohort also referred to as working part time for economic reasons, or PTER) rose during the recession.
The short-term unemployment rate has since returned to levels experienced before the recession. In contrast, longer-term unemployment and involuntary part-time work have declined, but both remain well above prerecession levels (see the chart).
Some of the postrecession decline in the short-term unemployment rate has not resulted from the short-term unemployed finding a job, but rather the opposite—they failed to get a job and became longer-term unemployed. Before the recession, the number of unemployed workers who said they had been looking for a job for more than half a year accounted for about 18 percent of unemployed workers. Currently, that share is close to 36 percent.
Moreover, job finding by unemployed workers might not completely reflect a decline in the amount of slack labor resources if some want full-time work but only find part-time work (that is, are working PTER). In this post, we investigate the ability of the unemployed to become fully employed relative to their experience before the Great Recession.
The job-finding rate of unemployed workers (the share of unemployed who are employed the following month) generally decreases toward zero with the length of the unemployment spell. Job-finding rates fell for all durations of unemployment in the recession.
Since the end of the recession, job-finding rates have improved, especially for shorter-term unemployed, but remain well below prerecession levels. The overall job-finding rate stood at close to 28 percent in 2007 and was about 20 percent for the first four months of 2014. The chart below shows the job-finding rates for select years by unemployment duration:
What about the jobs that the unemployed find? Most unemployed workers want to work full-time hours (at least 35 hours a week). In 2007, around 75 percent of job finders wanted full-time work and either got full-time work or worked PTER (the remainder worked part time for noneconomic reasons). For the first four months of 2014, the share wanting full-time work was also about 75 percent. But the portion of job finders wanting full-time work and only finding part-time work increased from about 22 percent in 2007 to almost 30 percent in 2014, and this job-finding underutilization share has become especially high for the longer-term unemployed.
The chart below displays the job-finding underutilization share for select years by unemployment duration. (You can also read further analysis of PTER dynamics by our colleagues at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.)
Finding a job is one thing, but finding a satisfactory job is another. Since the end of the recession, the number of unemployed has declined, thanks in part to a gradually improving rate of job finding. But the job-finding rate is still relatively low, and the ability of an unemployed job seeker who wants to work full-time to actually find full-time work remains a significant challenge.
John Robertson, a vice president and senior economist and
Ellyn Terry, a senior economic analyst, both of the Atlanta Fed's research department
June 9, 2014 in Employment, Labor Markets, Unemployment | Permalink
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Excellent work.
Posted by:
Larry Signor |
June 21, 2014 at 08:04 PM
June 02, 2014
How Discouraged Are the Marginally Attached?
Of the many statistical barometers of the U.S. economy that we monitor here at the Atlanta Fed, there are few that we await more eagerly than the monthly report on employment conditions. The May 2014 edition arrives this week and, like many others, we will be more interested in the underlying details than in the headline job growth or unemployment numbers.
One of those underlying details—the state of the pool of "discouraged" workers (or, maybe more precisely, potential workers)—garnered special attention lately in the wake of the relatively dramatic decline in the ranks of the official labor force, a decline depicted in the April employment survey from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That attention included some notable commentary from Federal Reserve officials.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley, for example, recently suggested that a sizeable part of the decline in labor force participation since 2007 can be tied to discouraged workers exiting the workforce. This suggestion follows related comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen in her press conference following the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee:
So I have talked in the past about indicators I like to watch or I think that are relevant in assessing the labor market. In addition to the standard unemployment rate, I certainly look at broader measures of unemployment… Of course, I watch discouraged and marginally attached workers… it may be that as the economy begins to strengthen, we could see labor force participation flatten out for a time as discouraged workers start moving back into the labor market. And so that's something I'm watching closely.
What may not be fully appreciated by those not steeped in the details of the employment statistics is that discouraged workers are actually a subset of "marginally attached" workers. Among the marginally attached—individuals who have actively sought employment within the most recent 12-month period but not during the most recent month—are indeed those who report that they are out of the labor force because they are discouraged. But the marginally attached also include those who have not recently sought work because of family responsibilities, school attendance, poor health, or other reasons.
In fact, most of the marginally attached are not classified (via self-reporting) as discouraged (see the chart):
At the St. Louis Fed, B. Ravikumar and Lin Shao recently published a report containing some detailed analysis of discouraged workers and their relationship to the labor force and the unemployment rate. As Ravikumar and Shao note,
Since discouraged workers are not actively searching for a job, they are considered nonparticipants in the labor market—that is, they are neither counted as unemployed nor included in the labor force.
More importantly, the authors point out that they tend to reenter the labor force at relatively high rates:
Since December 2007, on average, roughly 40 percent of discouraged workers reenter the labor force every month.
Therefore, it seems appropriate to count some fraction of the jobless population designated as discouraged (and out of the labor force) as among the officially unemployed.
We believe this logic should be extended to the entire group of marginally attached. As we've pointed out in the past, the marginally attached group as a whole also has a roughly 40 percent transition rate into the labor force. Even though more of the marginally attached are discouraged today than before the recession, the changing distribution has not affected the overall transition rate of the marginally attached into the labor force.
In fact, in terms of the propensity to flow into employment or officially measured unemployment, there is little to distinguish the discouraged from those who are marginally attached but who have other reasons for not recently seeking a job (see the chart):
What we take from these data is that, as a first pass, when we are talking about discouraged workers' attachment to the labor market, we are talking more generally about the marginally attached. And vice versa. Any differences in the demographic characteristics between discouraged and nondiscouraged marginally attached workers do not seem to materially affect their relative labor market attachment and ability to find work.
Sometimes labels matter. But in the case of discouraged marginally attached workers versus the nondiscouraged marginally attached workers—not so much.
By Dave Altig, executive vice president and research director,
John Robertson, a vice president and senior economist, and
Ellyn Terry, a senior economic analyst, all of the Atlanta Fed's research department
June 2, 2014 in Employment, Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy, Labor Markets, Unemployment | Permalink
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I think this note usefully shows that the categories of unemployment are vague, the distinctions arbitrary, but then we knew that. But what is to be done?
Posted by:
Tom Shillock |
June 03, 2014 at 03:05 PM
May 09, 2014
How Has Disability Affected Labor Force Participation?
You might be unaware that May is Disability Insurance Awareness Month. We weren't aware of it until recently, but the issue of disability—as a reason for nonparticipation in the labor market—has been very much on our minds as of late. As we noted in a previous macroblog post, from the fourth quarter of 2007 through the end of 2013, the number of people claiming to be out of the labor force for reasons of illness or disability increased almost 3 million (or 23 percent). The previous post also noted that the incidence of reported nonparticipation as a result of disability/illness is concentrated (unsurprisingly) in the age group from about 51 to 60.
In the past, we have examined the effects of the aging U.S. population on the labor force participation rate (LFPR). However, we have not yet specifically considered how much the aging of the population alone is responsible for the aforementioned increase in disability as a reason for dropping out of the labor force.
The following chart depicts over time the percent (by age group) reporting disability or illness as a reason for not participating in the labor force. Each line represents a different year, with the darkest line being 2013. The chart reveals a long-term trend of rising disability or illness as a reason for labor force nonparticipation for almost every age group.
The chart also shows that disability or illness is cited most often among people 51 to 65 years old—the current age of a large segment of the baby boomer cohort. In fact, the proportion of people in this age group increased from 20 percent in 2003 to 25 percent in 2013.
How much can the change in demographics during the past decade explain the rise in disability or illness as a reason for not participating in the labor market? The answer seems to be: Not a lot.
Following an approach you may have seen in this post, we break down into three components the change in the portion of people not participating in the labor force due to disability or illness. One component measures the change resulting from shifts within age groups (the within effect). Another component measures changes due to population shifts across age groups (the between effect). A third component allows for correlation across the two effects (a covariance term). Here's what you get:
To recap, only about one fifth of the decline in labor force participation as a result of reported illness or disability can be attributed to the population aging per se. A full three quarters appears to be associated with some sort of behavioral change.
What is the source of this behavioral change? Our experiment can't say. But given that those who drop out of the labor force for reasons of disability/illness tend not to return, it would be worth finding out. Here is one perspective on the issue.
You can find even more on this topic via the Human Capital Compendium.
By Dave Altig, research director and executive vice president at the Atlanta Fed, and
Ellyn Terry, a senior economic analyst in the Atlanta Fed's research department
May 9, 2014 in Employment, Labor Markets, Unemployment | Permalink
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I wish you had used different colors, its really hard to differentiate the years.
One wonders if there has been a commensurate increase in claims for disability.
As a percentage of the total people not in the labor force, disability as a reason has gone up from~10% in 1998 to ~13% in 2014. That seems like an awfully big jump. Other than an intervening recession, I am struggling to think of what might cause this as I cannot think of any policy changes to entitlement programs that would cause this.
Posted by:
dwb |
May 10, 2014 at 01:11 PM
I have a real problem with your label "people who don't want a job because they are disabled or ill." My husband is collecting disability insurance after a mental breakdown several years ago and subsequent bipolar disorder diagnosis. Its NOT that he "doesn't WANT to work" because of his illness that has no cure, its because he CAN'T work due to that illness. He has been mourning the loss of his dream career for 9 years now and would do anything he could to be able to work in his chosed field again. Its NOT his fault that his medication and therapy only goes so far in helping him to live a half-way normal life. There is NO CURE for this disease and he has a very hard-to-manage case according to his doctors who are doing everything they can for him, but don't demean him by saying he doesn't WANT to work, because he wants that more than anything and he always will.
Posted by:
Susan Buchanan |
May 12, 2014 at 11:20 AM
Some conjectures: 1) A rise in the entitlement mentality. 2) A rise in fraud. 3) More lax governmental oversight. 4) Changes in incentives for claiming disability. 5) Greater expectations of near-perfect health as a norm.
Posted by:
Marvin McConoughey |
May 14, 2014 at 07:29 PM
April 17, 2014
Using State-Level Data to Estimate How Labor Market Slack Affects Wages
At a recent speech in Miami, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart had this to say:
Wage growth by most measures has been very low. I take this as a signal of labor market weakness, and in turn a signal of a lack of significant upward unit cost pressure on inflation.
This macroblog post examines whether the data support this assertion (answer: yes) and whether wage inflation is more sensitive to some measures of labor underutilization than other measures (answer: apparently, yes). San Francisco Fed President John Williams touched on the latter topic in a recent speech (emphasis mine):
We generally look at the overall unemployment rate as a good yardstick of labor market slack and inflation pressures. However, its usefulness may be compromised today by the extraordinary number of long-term unemployed—defined as those out of the workforce for six months or longer... Standard models of inflation typically do not distinguish between the short- and long-term unemployed, because they're assumed to affect wage and price inflation in the same way. However, recent research suggests that the level of long-term unemployment may not influence inflation pressures to the same degree as short-term unemployment.
And Fed Chair Janet Yellen said this at her March 19 press conference:
With respect to the issue of short-term unemployment and its being more relevant for inflation and a better measure of the labor market, I've seen research along those lines. I think it would be tremendously premature to adopt any notion that says that that is an accurate read on either how inflation is determined or what constitutes slack in the labor market.
The research to which President Williams refers are papers by economists Robert Gordon and Mark Watson, respectively. (For further evidence, see this draft by Princeton economists Alan Krueger, Judd Cramer and David Cho.)
The analysis here builds on this research by broadening the measures of labor underutilization beyond the short-term and long-term unemployment rates that add up to the standard unemployment rate called U-3. The U-5 underutilization measure includes both conventional unemployment and "marginally attached workers" who are not in the labor force but who want a job and have actively looked in the past year. The difference between U-5 and U-3 is a very close proxy for the number of marginally attached relative to the size of the labor force.
U-6 encompasses U-5 as well as those who work less than 35 hours for an economic reason. The difference between U-6 and U-5 is a very close proxy for the share of "part-time for economic reason" workers in the labor force. These nonoverlapping measures of labor underutilization rates are all shown in the chart below.
The series are highly correlated, making it difficult to isolate the impact of any particular labor underutilization rate on wage inflation (e.g., "How much will wage inflation change if the short-term unemployment rate rises 1.0 percentage point, holding all of the underutilization measures in the above figure constant?").
We follow the approach of Staiger, Stock, and Watson (2001) by using state-level data to relate wage inflation to unemployment in a so-called "wage-Phillips curve." Because the 2007–09 recession hit some states harder than others, we can use the cross-sectional variation in outcomes across states to arrive at more precise estimates of the separate impacts of the labor underutilization measures on wage inflation (see the chart).
Five-year state-level wage inflation rates for 2008–13, using monthly Current Population Survey(CPS) microdata, are shown on the vertical axis. The CPS microdata are also used to construct all of the labor underutilization measures. Each circle represents an individual state (red for long-term unemployment and blue for short-term unemployment), and each circle's area is proportional to the state's population share. Two noteworthy states are pointed out for illustration. North Dakota has had lower unemployment and (much) higher wage inflation than the other states (presumably because of its energy boom). And California has had higher unemployment and (somewhat) lower wage inflation than average. Even after excluding North Dakota, we see a clear negative relationship between wage inflation and underutilization measured with either short-term or long-term unemployment.
Because short-term and long-term unemployment are highly correlated (also apparent in the above plot), one can't tell visually if one underutilization measure is more important for wage inflation than the other. To make this assessment, we need to estimate a regression. The regression—which also includes both U-5 minus U-3 and U-6 minus U-5—adjusts wages for changes in the composition of the workforce. This composition adjustment, also made by Staiger, Stock and Watson (2001), controls for the fact that lower-skilled workers tend to be laid off at a disproportionately higher rate during recessions, thereby putting upward pressure on wages. The regression also weights observations by population shares.
The regression estimates imply that short-term unemployment is the most important determinant of wage inflation while U-6 minus U-5—the proxy for "part-time for economic reason" workers—also has a statistically significant impact. The other two labor underutilization measures do not affect wage inflation statistically different from zero. Rather than provide regression coefficients, we decompose observed U.S. wage inflation for 1995–2013 into contributions from the labor underutilization measures, workforce composition changes, and everything else (see the chart).
Both short-term unemployment and workers who are part-time for economic reasons have pushed down wage inflation. But the "part-time for economic reason" impact has become relatively more important recently because of the stubbornly slow decline in undesired part-time employment.
By Pat Higgins, a senior economist in the Atlanta Fed's research department
Editor's note: Upon request, the programming code used in this macroblog post is available from the author.
April 17, 2014 in Employment, Labor Markets, Unemployment | Permalink
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April 08, 2014
A Closer Look at Post-2007 Labor Force Participation Trends
The rate of labor force participation (the share of the civilian noninstitutionalized population aged 16 and older in the labor force) has declined significantly since 2007. To what extent were the Great Recession and tepid recovery responsible?
In this post and one that will follow, we offer a series of charts using data from the Current Population Survey to explore some of the possible reasons behind the 2007–13 drop in participation. This first post describes the impact of the changing-age composition of the population and changes in labor force participation within specific age cohorts—see Calculated Risk posts here and here for a related treatment, and also this recent BLS study. The next post will look at the issue of potential cyclical impacts on participation by examining the behavior of the prime-age population.
Putting the decline in context
After rising from the mid-1960s through 1990, the overall labor force participation rate was relatively stable between 1990 and 2007. But participation has declined sharply since 2007. By 2013, participation was at the lowest level since 1978 (see chart 1).
For men, the longer-term declining trend of participation accelerated after 2007. For women, after having been relatively stable since the late 1990s, participation began to decline after 2009. The decline for both males and females since 2009 was similar (see chart 2).
The impact of retirement
One of the most important features of labor force participation is that it varies considerably over the life cycle: the rate of participation is low among young individuals, peaks during the prime-age years of 25 to 54, and then declines (see chart 3). So a change in the age distribution of the population can result in a significant change in overall labor force participation.
The age distribution of the population has been shifting outward for some time. This is a result of the so-called baby boomer generation—that is, people born between 1946 and 1964 (see chart 4). The oldest baby boomers turned 62 in 2008 and became eligible for Social Security retirement benefits.
At the same time the age distribution of the population has shifted out, the rate of retirement of older Americans has been declining. Retirement rates have generally been drifting down since the early 2000s (see chart 5). The decline in age-specific retirement rates has resulted in rising age-specific labor force participation rates. For example, from 1999 to 2013, the share of 62-year-old retirees declined from 38 percent to 28 percent. The BLS projects that this trend will continue at a similar pace in coming years (see table 3 of the BLS report).
Although the decline in the propensity to retire has put some upward pressure on overall labor force participation, that effect is dominated by the sheer increase in the number of people reaching retirement age. The net result has been a steep rise in the share of the population saying they are not in the labor force because they are retired (see chart 6).
Participation by age group
Individuals aged 16–24
The labor force participation rate for young individuals (between 16 and 24 years old) has been generally declining since the late 1990s. After slowing in the mid-2000s, the decline accelerated again during the Great Recession. However, participation has been relatively stable since 2009 (see chart 7). Nonetheless, the BLS projects that the participation rate for 16- to 24-year-olds will decline further, albeit at a slower pace than it declined between 2000 and 2009, and will fall a little below 50 percent by 2022.
The change in participation among young people can be attributed almost entirely to enrollment rates in education programs (see here) and lower labor force participation among enrollees (see chart 8). The change in the share of 16- to 24-year-olds who say they don't currently want a job because they are in school closely matches the change in labor force participation for the entire cohort.
Individuals aged 25–54 (prime age)
Generally, people aged 25 to 54 are the group most likely to be participating in the labor market (see chart 3). These so-called prime-age individuals are less likely to be making retirement decisions than older individuals, and less likely to be enrolled in schooling or training than younger individuals.
However, the prime-age labor force participation rate declined considerably between 2007 and 2013, and at a much faster pace than had been seen in the years prior to the recession (see chart 9). Reflective of the overall gender-specific participation differences seen in chart 2, the decline in prime-age female participation did not take hold until after 2009, and since 2009 the decline in both prime-age male and female participation has been quite similar. Nevertheless, the BLS projects that prime-age participation will stabilize in coming years and prime-age participation in 2022 will be close to its 2013 level.
The BLS projects that participation by age group will look like this in 2022 relative to 2013 (see chart 10).
Participation by youths is projected to continue to fall. The participation of older workers is projected to increase, but it will remain significantly lower than that of the prime-age group. Combined with an age distribution that has also continued to shift outward (see chart 11), the overall participation rate is expected to decline over the next several years from its 2013 level of around 63.3 percent. From the BLS study:
A combination of demographic, structural, and cyclical factors has affected the overall labor force participation rate, as well as the participation rates of specific groups, in the past. BLS projects that, as has been the case for the last 10 years or so, these factors will exert downward pressure on the overall labor force participation rate over the 2012–2022 period and the rate will gradually decline further, to 61.6 percent in 2022.
However, an important assumption in the BLS projection is that the post-2007 decline in prime-age participation will not persist. Indeed, the data for the first quarter of 2014 does suggest that some stabilization has occurred.
But separating what is trend from what is cyclical is challenging. The rapid pace of the decline in participation among the prime-age population between 2007 and 2013 is somewhat puzzling. Could this decline reflect a temporary cyclical effect or something more permanent? A follow-up blog will explore this question in more detail using the micro data from the Current Population Survey.
Note: All data shown are 12-month moving averages to emphasize persistent shifts in trends.
Update: The authors acknowledge a debt to Tomaz Cajner and Bruce Fallick for their influence on some of this material. We regret inadvertently omitting this acknowledgement in the original post.
By Melinda Pitts, director, Center for Human Capital Studies,
John Robertson, a vice president and senior economist in the Atlanta Fed's research department, and
Ellyn Terry, a senior economic analyst in the Atlanta Fed's research department
April 8, 2014 in Business Cycles, Employment, Unemployment | Permalink
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I am having difficulty reconciling Charts 1 and 2 as chart 2 seems to suggest much lower total participation rates than are suggested in Chart 1. Any help much appreciated.
Posted by:
James Thomas |
May 28, 2014 at 01:30 PM
March 18, 2014
Human Capital Topics Now Searchable
A little more than a week ago, all eyes were on the February Employment Situation report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Establishment Survey surprised on the upside: nonfarm payrolls rose 175,000 in February, and payrolls were revised upward for December and January. The Household Survey indicated that the unemployment rate edged up slightly to 6.7 percent in February from 6.6 percent the prior month, and the labor force participation rate held steady at 63.0 percent.
These are some of the facts on the table as the Federal Open Market Committee meets today and tomorrow and, judging from recent comments from the folks who will be at that meeting, those facts (and more like them) will be very much front of mind.
These days, multiple tools are available to assist both casual and expert observers in navigating the rich and sometimes baffling story of labor markets in the post-Great Recession world. Just last week, you could find a new "Guide for the Perplexed" on labor market slack in The New York Times and an interactive feature on the "Eight Different Faces of the Labor Market" at the New York Fed's Liberty Street Economics blog. And that's not to mention the most recent update of the Atlanta Fed's own 13-headed Labor Market Spider Chart.
All of these contributions reflect a great deal of effort to understand the story of what's happening in labor markets. As part of that effort, our colleagues across the Federal Reserve System have been taking deeper dives into employment statistics and reaching out into their communities to get a better understanding of labor force dynamics and workforce development issues. This research can be found on the various Reserve Bank and Board websites.
To facilitate access to that work, the Atlanta Fed's Center for Human Capital Studies has worked to bring those resources together in the Federal Reserve Human Capital Compendium (HCC). We are pleased to announce that we have recently enhanced the HCC so you can perform simple or advanced searches that allow you to research whatever facet of that research strikes your fancy (see the figure):
We encourage you to take your own deeper dive into the latest research across the Federal Reserve System by browsing the HCC or searching out those labor topics that have piqued your interest lately.
By Whitney Mancuso, a senior economic analyst in the Atlanta Fed's research department
March 18, 2014 in Employment, Labor Markets, Unemployment | Permalink
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March 07, 2014
Thinking About Progress in the Labor Market
Today's employment report for the month of February maybe took a bit of drama out of one key question going into the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): What will happen to the FOMC's policy language when the economy hits or passes the 6.5 percent unemployment rate threshold for considering policy-rate liftoff? With the unemployment rate for February checking it at 6.7 percent, a breach of the threshold clearly won't have happened when the Committee meets in a little less than two weeks.
I say "maybe took a bit of drama out" because I'm not sure there was much drama left. All you had to do was listen to the Fed talkers yesterday to know that. This is from the highlights summary of a speech yesterday by Charles Plosser, president of the Philadelphia Fed...
President Plosser believes the Federal Open Market Committee has to revamp its current forward guidance regarding the future federal funds rate path because the 6.5 percent unemployment threshold has become irrelevant.
... and this from a Wall Street Journal interview with William Dudley, president of the New York Fed:
Mr. Dudley, in a Wall Street Journal interview, also said the Fed's 6.5% unemployment rate threshold for considering increases in short-term interest rates is "obsolete" and he would advocate scrapping it at the Fed's next meeting March 18–19.
From our shop, Atlanta Fed president Dennis Lockhart echoed those sentiments in a speech at Georgetown University:
Given that measured unemployment is so close to 6.5 percent, the time is approaching for a refreshed explanation of how unemployment or broader employment conditions are to be factored into a liftoff decision.
That statement doesn't mean we in Atlanta are disregarding the unemployment rate altogether. We have for some time been describing the broader net we have cast in fishing for labor market clues. One important aspect of that broader perspective is captured in the so-called U-6 measure of unemployment, about which President Lockhart's speech gives a quick tutorial:
The data used to construct the unemployment rate come from a survey of households conducted by the Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. To be counted as a participant in the labor force, a respondent must give rather specific qualifying answers to questions in the survey...
Those who are available, have looked for work in the past year, but have not recently looked for work are labeled "marginally attached." They are not in the official labor force, so they are not officially unemployed. You might say they are a "shadow labor force"...
One measure that counts the marginally attached in the pool of the unemployed is U-6.
U-6 also includes working people who identify themselves as working "part time for economic reasons." These are people who want to work full time (defined as 35 hours or more) but are able only to get fewer than 35 hours of work.
The "shadow labor force" comment is based on these observations. First, in President Lockhart's words:
The makeup of the class of marginally attached workers is quite fluid. About 40 percent of the marginally attached in any given month join the official labor force in the subsequent month.
There is no new story there. The frequency with which people move from marginally attached to in the labor force has been stable for quite a while (see the chart):
President Lockhart's second observation regarding the marginally attached is more important:
But only about 10 percent of those who move into the labor force find a job right away. In effect, they went from unofficially unemployed to officially unemployed.
The chart below depicts this observation:
Relative to before the Great Recession, the frequency with which people transitioned from marginally attached to employment has fallen by about 5 percentage points.
That decline is related to this conclusion (again from President Lockhart):
Here's my point: what U-6 captures matters. Measures such as marginally attached and part time for economic reasons became elevated in the recession and have not come down materially. Said differently, broader measures of unemployment like U-6 suggest that a significant level of slack remains in our employment markets.
It is not that we have failed to see progress in the U-6 measure of labor market slack. In fact, since the end of the recession, the U-6 unemployment rate has declined about in tandem with the standard official unemployment rate (designated U-3 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; see the chart):
What is the case is that we have failed to undo the outsized run-up in the marginally attached and people working part-time for economic reasons that occurred during the recession (see the chart):
One interpretation of these observations is that the relative increase in U-6 represents structural changes that cannot be fixed by policies aimed at stimulating spending. But we are drawn to the fact, described above, that the marginally attached are flowing into the labor market at the same pace as before the recession, but they are finding jobs at a much slower pace, making us hesitant to fully embrace a structural interpretation.
Or, as our boss said yesterday:
As a policymaker, I am concerned about the unemployed in the official labor force, but I am also concerned about the unemployed in the shadow labor force. To get close to full employment, as I think of it, would involve substantial absorption of this shadow labor force. I do not think we're near that point yet. This is one of the reasons I support continuing with a highly accommodative policy and deferring liftoff for a while longer.
But if you are looking for some good news, here it is: Though the official unemployment rate has been essentially flat for the past three months, the broader U-6 measure that we are monitoring closely has fallen by half a percentage point. More of that, and we will really be getting somewhere.
By Dave Altig, research director and executive vice president at the Atlanta Fed
March 7, 2014 in Employment, Labor Markets, Unemployment | Permalink
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What do you think of the fact that the Employment Population Ratio plummeted 5 percentage points from 2006/07 by 2010 to 58.2, where it pretty much has sat still?
56 straight months between 58.2 and 58.8, where it is today.
Posted by:
April 02, 2014 at 07:10 PM
Hmm, well I just saw an older blog entry, so I'll look at that.
Posted by:
April 02, 2014 at 07:16 PM


text:
Game-By-Game Stats (PDF)
2013 JUNIOR SEASON: Made his collegiate debut against UNLV saw action at New Mexico State, but did not record any statistics saw extended action against San Jose State and helped block for an offense that rushed for 353 yards (most since 2005) and six touchdowns played against Iowa competed at Michigan and recorded the first catch of his career, a 12-yard completition in the first quarter saw action at Northwestern and against Penn State.
2012 SOPHOMORE SEASON: Did not see any game action.
2011 FRESHMAN SEASON: Did not see any game action.
2010: Redshirted.
HIGH SCHOOL: All-state and all-metro selection as a senior in 2009 named North Suburban Conference Defensive Player of the Year two-time all-conference selection two-time all-conference academic selection helped lead Totino-Grace to the 2007 and 2009 state championship recorded 140 tackles, one interception and nine sacks as a senior tallied 98 tackles, one interception and four sacks in 2008 notched 75 stops, one interception and three sacks as a sophomore coached by Jeff Ferguson.
PERSONAL: Born Oct. 10, 1991 son of Tony and Rainie Mezzenga finance major.
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text:
Apple Tree - Cox Orange Pippin.
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Apple - Cox Orange Pippin, Malus domestica 'Cox Orange Pippin', is the classic English apple, often regarded as the finest of all dessert apples, and it remains unsurpassed for its richness and complexity of flavor.
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This upright, spreading tree is covered in pure white, cup-shaped flowers in mid and late spring, followed by first class, juicy dessert apples for harvesting in early to mid-October.
*Medium Yellow Fruit With Orange Red Blush
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Nature Hills sells a variety of plants and products, with many available in different types and sizes:
At Nature Hills we handle, package and ship the products you order with the utmost care to ensure healthy delivery. Shipping and handling charges are calculated based on the tables below. Please note that some items include an additional handling surcharge, these will be noted on the item's product page.
Plant Types and Container Sizes
Nature Hills sells a variety of plants and products, with many available in different types and sizes:
Select (bare root) Trees - Hand-selected quality bare root trees. The height of the tree you will receive will be displayed under the icon. Popular sizes of Select Trees are 1 foot, 2 feet, 3 feet, etc.
|Select (bare root) Plants - Hand selected-quality bare root plants.The height of the plant you will receive will be displayed under the icon. Popular sizes of Select Plants are 1 foot, 18 inches, etc.
Select (bare root) Small Fruits - Hand-selected quality small fruit plants. The height and # of plants in the pack you will receive is displayed above and below the image. (Ex: 3-pack of 1 foot plants).
Note on No. 1 Select sizes: You may see No. 1 used as the size of Select Tree/Plant. A "Number 1" grade plant is the highest-grade bare root plant available.
|Potted Plants & Trees - Quality plants and trees with developed root systems will have this icon. Typical sizes of our potted plants and trees are as follows:
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|Malas 'cox orange pippin'
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Apple Tree - Cox Orange Pippin.


text:
Oster 20 Oz. Plastic Pink, White My Blend Personal Blender (BLSTPB-WPK)
- White base/pink vessel
- Powerful 250 wall motor with one touch blending
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- Dishwasher safe 20 oz. BPA free plastic sport bottle
- Recipes included in the instruction manual
- Replacement bottle Ace no. 6229876
*Items shipped from our warehouse to stores in Alaska and Hawaii will receive a 70% shipping discount.
30-Day Return Guarantee
We want you to be fully satisfied with every item that you purchase from www.acehardware.com. If you are not satisfied with an item that you have purchased (excluding Gift Cards and gas-powered outdoor equipment*), you may return the item up to thirty days after the original purchase date to receive a store credit (less shipping, handling and other charges). We recommend that you make returns of online purchases to an Ace retail store near you which will issue your store credit. If you do not have an Ace retail store near you, please contact a Customer Service Specialist by calling 1-866-290-5334 for complete return instructions. Please refer to our Return Instructions for more information about returning a purchase.
The item must be returned in good condition, in original boxes (whenever possible), and with all paperwork, parts and accessories to insure full credit. After 30 days, please contact the manufacturer directly.
*Gas-Powered Outdoor Equipment cannot be returned once gas or oil has been put in it, even if the Equipment has been drained of these materials.