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News archive
18 May 2010
Posting reputation: let the community moderate itselfI have added a new reputation system to file and image comments on all the Nexus sites. This new system is a "plus or minus" system similar to the current rating system except that minus points can actually have consequences to the post. It is visible on all file and image comments to the right of the comment date.
If you like a post you plus rep it by clicking the thumbs up icon and the post will instantly gain a reputation point. If you don't like the post, if you think it's a troll post or didn't add to the discussion then you can neg (negative) rep the post using the thumbs down icon and it will instantly gain a negative reputation point.
If a post has -5 or less reputation then it will automatically be hidden from view and the only way for the post to be seen is for the user to specifically click to see the post. You can only give reputation to a post once (and you can't change your decision) and to avoid people going crazy and just repping everything and anything you can only give rep to 5 posts per 24 hours if you're a normal member and 10 posts per 24 hours if you're a supporter of the site.
Please note that this system should not replace the use of the "Report this comment" feature and if you think someone is trolling or breaking the rules then please report the post for the staff to take a look at it; the person might need to be hit with the ban stick. So hey, neg rep the post so others can't see the needless post and then report it just to make sure the staff see it and take some action.
This system is my first attempt at using AJAX, PHP and MySQL together for a seemless experience (no pop-up windows) so fingers crossed it's all working!
13 May 2010
New Supporter member group and Image Share sectionAfter reading through the feedback provided by the community on my last news post I decided to return to the confines of the private Nexus staff forums to listen to the council of my fellow staff members and discuss viable solutions. Today I've decided to go ahead with my plans and we'll see how it goes.
To start with I have created a new paid for member group known as a "Supporter". Supporters are either people who have paid a one-off fee of £1 to become a Supporter of the site or are past Premium Members whose subscription has expired. They're essentially a mini-Premium member with a few additional features over normal member accounts but with less features than a full Premium Member, Premium Members get these features and more.
Perhaps the most prolific of these features is the ability for Supporters to manage the comments of their own files and images. Supporters can remove any comments they desire from any member (except a staff member) who has posted on their file or image comment topic essentially making them the moderators of their own files and comments. This will be a welcome addition to any file owner on the site who doesn't like to turn the file comments off but likes to have control over what is said within their comment topics.
My plan is to further compound this functionality in the near future with a digg.com style "negative reputation" system to allow members to down-rate posts they believe to be in poor taste, or trolling, thus sending the post to the bottom of the pile, hiding it or deleting it entirely. Imagine someone posts on a great file that they think it's absolutely rubbish. An obvious troll post from an idiot. Five people read the file comments, they don't like that particular comment, and they each neg-rep it. That post then becomes hidden from view. That's the plan.
As well as comment moderation Supporters and Premium Members will now have access to a seperate Image Share section (it's on your right navigation bar under "Image Share (Sup)") that is just for them. This Image Share section has more relaxed terms and conditions, allowing nudity within the realms of legality and similar adult-only content that was recently disallowed from the main Image Share section. While I regret to add this Censorship to the main Image Share section this choice was mine to make and while I appreciate that a "behind closed doors" philosophy isn't great I am much more comfortable with this arrangement, as are the majority of the staff here.
The file database will remain unchanged and untouched.
Finally the private message storage capacity of Supporters has been increased from 100 to 500, inline with the Premium Members. Great for authors who receive a lot of communication via PM.
If people find any bugs then please send a report my way so I can take a look at it.
05 May 2010
Announcing Adult Nexus in developmentI'd like to take this time to announce some new spin-offs to the Nexus sites labeled Adult TESNexus, Adult Fallout 3 Nexus and Adult Dragon Age Nexus that are currently being developed. While these sites are not finished I'm announcing them now to gauge community response and receive feedback on what possible users would like to see from the sites. While I can't fulfill all requests I always learn a lot and get lots of great ideas for future site features from these sorts of feedback sessions.
As the name suggests the Adult Nexus sites will be for adults. Not necessarily for adult-only content but for adults in general. The idea is to create a more exclusive community in which those who wish to partake can enjoy the Nexus site structure with inebitably fewer and perhaps more mature people. Why would I want to create such a site? You'd be surprised how many people email and private message me saying how much they love the site but can't stand a lot of the idle public chatter, or the way some people talk, or the possibility of some trolling, or the whiners...the list goes on.
Adult Nexus sites will be a get away for people such as this who prefer smaller communities rather than larger ones. While this may sound elitist it definately isn't the aim and my main focus will always be on the main Nexus sites. However creating a small community network for those people who don't like being in the large hussle-bussle of the main Nexus sites has been something I've been pestered about for many years, back to the TESSource days.
Adult Nexus sites will be a pay-to-enter site at a one off fee of £1 (about $1.55). Paid once and only once via PayPal and perhaps a few other online payment gateways. Why is it pay-to-enter? Because a simple 'What is your date of birth' just isn't going to cut it. I need a realistic way of only allowing those in who have the highest chance of actually being adults and what better way than to require a credit or debit card? Yes, people younger than 18 can get debit cards but this seems the most logical and indeed most simple way of doing things. It also has the added bonus of adding an extra deterrent against trolls who want to ruin it for everyone. Premium members past and present will automatically be able to enter Adult Nexus sites and will not need to pay the one-off fee.
The fee isn't designed to put money in my pocket. Running some numbers if (what I consider to be rather unlikely) 1,000 people were to pay the fee it would only cover one half of the Nexus's monthly costs. Hopefully that should put things in perspective.Similarly there will be no advertising on the Adult sites; this is not a money chasing scheme.
What will be on the sites? Simply put they'll be trimmed down Nexus sites with a file database and an image share database. Some of the stuff that has been disallowed in the recent terms and conditions update will be allowed on the Adult Nexus sites. Pictures of nude characters will be allowed in the image share section but I'd like to stress that the intention isn't for the Adult sites just to be for risque content; users will be able to upload anything within the bounds of the terms of service (so still no paedophilia, necrophilia, bestiliaty and all the usual illegal stuff) but the terms will be much more relaxed for all the stuff still within the realms of legality.
The Image Share section has an added "Content" filter that will seperate pictures of male characters, female characers, pictures of both male and female characters or none of these. So if you like pictures of guys and just guys you can filter out all the other stuff and vice versa.
Image and file uploaders will gain the ability to remove comments on their own files and images on Adult Nexus sites, so uploaders will be their own moderators for their files. If things get out of hand then the moderators will be around to lend a swift swing of the hammer of justice but the idea is for the community to be a bit more exclusive and a bit more autonomous.
This is an interesting idea and something a bit new and different and I'm interested to hear people's response to this. But, please, for the love of all that's good in this world don't go off on a rant putting lots of words in my mouth without providing anything useful. If you don't like the idea then explain why you don't like the idea and provide me with actual alternatives; alternatives that don't involve people scanning-in their passport or drivers licenses and emailing them to me. If you like the idea then show your support and throw some crazy ideas out in the air for me to consider.
01 May 2010
Terms of Service update for the sites and forumThe Terms of Service for all Nexus sites and the forums have been updated today with some important changes to rules on file and image uploads and general etiquette.
A new section has been added on Uploading files and images (click to go straight to the relevant area) that clearly sets out in writing what we do and don't allow on the Nexus sites. Many of these rules have been enforced for years but they've never been properly set out in the Terms of Service, making things slightly "grey" for people who aren't wise to the way we work around here. I want to once again compound the fact that I have absolutely no wish to host modifications that allow sexual acts with children or child-like characters, animals, dead people or include rape, torture and masturbation. Legal or illegal; I just don't want to host these mods and there are plenty of other sites out there that will happily host these for you. Thank you for your understanding.
Similarly a rather important new rule has been invoked on the Image Share section on all Nexus sites, effective immediately.
The image share section was originally designed to be a place for users to upload screenshots of funny, interesting or aesthetically pleasing things they'd taken in game. It wasn't designed to be a porn (or nude art) hub for people's personal pleasure. From this day forward the Image Share section cannot be used to upload images of a pornographic nature (including sex, masturbation and solo "legs spread" images).
We continue to remain open and liberal to the vast majority of content created out there but I wish to draw the line on certain things. If further clarification is needed then I will try my hardest to do this.
24 April 2010
Download speeds question for US membersI would be interested to know what sort of download speeds US members are getting on the file server nearest to their location. Obviously normal members are capped at a maximum of 500kb/sec but I'd like to know how close people are getting to this figure in contrast to their actual download speed and their location. If you'd like to share this information please let me know as it would help me better understand the needs of you all.
Please provide your general location (the State you are living in), your line speed (56k up to 50mbit) and any other details you feel are pertinent.
Thank you.
24 April 2010
New EU file server now availableThere is now a new 100mbit file server available to all members located in Maidenhead, England. Obviously this server will benefit the European visitors of the Nexus sites and I will be closely monitoring the bandwidth throughout the day to insure the server isn't being saturated.
The file servers are being reshuffled and this is the last month that the two Washington file servers in the US will be operational. Both the Dallas and Seattle servers have been upgraded to Gigabit lines and while the site does use a lot of bandwidth (350mbit/sec at the moment) the dual Gigabit lines in the US along with 100mbit line in the EU (with the chance for another EU server should the need arise) should provide the Nexus sites with ample bandwidth for the foreseeable future.
23 April 2010
Changes to the "Updates today" pageI have made both aesthetic and functional changes to the "Updates today" page on all Nexus sites this evening.
Aesthetically each row of content has been given a slightly different background colour so you can more easily line up the content (such as the edits made and time the edit was made) for each file name.
A new function has been added above the usual "Edited files" block that allows you to filter the list of edited files based on the edits made. This is handy as you can now simply list files that have had new uploads added to them, great for keeping up-to-date with files with new uploads today. The same can be said for images, mirrors, videos and attribute changes. If you are logged in to the site as a member you can choose to save your filtering preferences so when you return to the site it will remember them. This will change your preferences on all the Nexus sites.
Bug reports to the usual place!
15 April 2010
Aesthetic changes to file pagesThe file database on all Nexus sites has been updated with a new aethsetic look and rearranging in both categories and file entries. The image gallery now works in a similar way to the "Hot files" box, showing images that the owner of the file has uploaded (and not images by other users).
09 April 2010
GameStop added as affiliateGameStop has now been added to the list of affiliates available to purchase from in our affiliate store. GameStop are one of the largest video game retailers in the US so if you're planning to buy any games in the near future, or pre-order Fallout: New Vegas, for example, then you might like to do it through them.
A big thank you to the people who have been using the affiliate links to buy items online and a reminder, as I get asked this a lot, that you don't need to just use the links for buying games and hardware. If you're buying books for school or leisure, or clothing, it doesn't matter, the Nexus sites will still get a small commission on everything you buy from affiliates.
01 April 2010
Front page changesThe front page on all three Nexus sites has been updated and completely reworked to better suit file sites such as these. The site news has been moved below the new content blocks and the webmaster's blog will be relocated in due course.
For those wondering how hot files are chosen; the top 5 files are picked once per day from the top 25 recently endorsed files of the past 21 days. Adult only files are not included in the mix and (obviously) only files with images are accepted. If you're a file author uploading new files to the site then insure your files have a good image set as their primary image as that is what will be shown in the "hot files" section should your file be eligible.
The front page makes use of jQuery to provide a liquid experience that takes up the entire screen for all users. People with resolutions below 1200 in width will have sup-par experience anywhere on Nexus sites as it is. Users with resolutions above 1600 in width will gain an extra content box "Site stats" to fill the gap.
You can expect to see more aesthetic updates to the site over the coming months. Happy modding.
Jump to page


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Pearl Izumi Elite Barrier WxB Shoe Cover: Black MD
0 Reviews | Write a Review
These Overshoes will keep feet dry and happy while commuting to work or running errands around town.
- Material: 41% polyurethane, 32% polyester, 19% nylon, 5% Cordura nylon, 2% Kevlar aramid, 1% elastane
- Kevlar bottom with hook and loop closure allows easy on and off
- Barrier WxB 2.5 layer fabric provides waterproof, breathable protection
- Power band secures front of shoe cover under toes for better retention and abrasion durability
- 2-stage hook and loop closure provides and sleek fit and easy on/off
- Kevlar bottom with hook and loop closure allows easy on and off
- Recommended for street shoes
- Volume reducing instep strap
- Anatomic paneling for a performance fit
- Waterproof, fully taped internal seams
- Reflective elements for low-light visibility
|Item Specifications
|Shoe Size
|6.5 - 8
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subset: commoncrawl


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Wiki Headlines
23rd Oct: It's time for the second TV Tropes Halloween Avatar Contest, theme: cute monsters! Details and voting here.
main index
Rapunzel's Revenge is a graphic novel by award-winning author Shannon Hale and husband Dean, illustrated by Nathan Hale (no relation). The story follows a strong and independent Rapunzel, perfectly willing and able to save herself. Initially following the original fairy tale, Rapunzel is kidnapped, but in this tale she escapes herself via her long hair. The rest of the story chronicles her dealing with her pursuers and attempting to escape to freedom.Followed by Calamity Jack, which focuses on Jack having to face his past as he and Rapunzel travel back east to his hometown of Shyport to help his poor in-debt mother only to find the city ravaged by a race of Ant Men and under the supposed protection of a gang of giants, led by a crime lord named Blunderboar. With the help of one of Jack's old partners, a pixie named Prudence, and inventor/newspaper owner Freddie Sparksmith, they seek to uncover the truth behind the Ant Men attacks and free Jack's mother from Blunderboar's enslavement.
Tropes associated with this work:


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About Us
We are a small US based company, family owned and operated. We design and manufacture unique products. Dad is the founder of our company, a mechanical engineer with over 25 years of experience in design and development of access control products with 9 registered patents. He designed the Titan Gun Safe and started the company after termination of his job due life threatening cancer and multiple ailments.
We are a trendsetter where our competitors can't even get close to the innovation and quality of our products.
We give individual attention to each product leaving our facility.
We have the highest quality standard in the industry and we enjoy 100% customer satisfaction from our products. Our manufacturing partners are situated in the US, with the head office in California.


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You must log in to access this feature. Sign in with Twellow or Facebook to get started.
By signing in to Twellow, you indicate your agreement to our terms of service.
Simply connect with Facebook and kiss those password blues away,
or go here to reset your password.
We're 2 AAA game industry veterans who quit their day jobs to make a free-to-play online action RPG app that will redefine gaming on smartphones and tablets.


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Hey, i downloaded the students version of Maya 2013, when i try to run it, a windows error appears (0xc000007b). I am using Windows 7 64bit and mit graphics card is a nvidia GTX 560 TI.
I hope you can help me.
- Dominik
Make sure you are running a WHQL certified driver from nvidia.com and then check out this link:
Hi Dominik,
Have you tried the suggestions mentioned in the following forum posts?
The application was unable to start correctly (0xc000007b) - LINK 1
The application was unable to start correctly (0xc000007b) - LINK 2
Additionally, your graphics card isn't on the Certified Hardware list for Maya 2013 and as such may be the culprit.
thanks, but i tried out all the links, no one helped...
Shucks! As mentioned earlier, it could very well be the graphics card...
I have been using the student version for three (3) months and now all of a sudden I am getting this message: Application unable to start correctly (oxc000007b) click ok to close the application. Why now if it's my graphics card?
Access a broad range of knowledge to help get the most out of your products and services.
Start with some of our most frequented solutions or visit the Installation and Licensing Forum to get help installing your software.
Upgrading to a 2015 product? Make sure to check these out 1st!


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Taylor was spotted doing some grocery shopping at Ralph's Grocery Store with her mom in Studio City, California yesterday (December 19th). You can view some MQ and HQ candids in our gallery.
Gallery Links:
Paparazzi Candids > Candids from 2012 > December 19 – At Ralph's Grocery Store in Studio City, California
December 20, 2012
By admin


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Bizarre freeway chase ends in Sherman Oaks
SHERMAN OAKS (CNS) – An unidentified man was arrested today after a two-county high-speed pursuit that began in Westminster and ended in bizarre fashion on the Ventura (101) Freeway in Sherman Oaks.
After a 75-minute pursuit that reached speeds of more than 100 miles per hour on the San Diego (405) Freeway, the severely disabled black pickup truck came to a stop on the empty lanes of the 101.
California Highway Patrol officers in five vehicles waited in a line across the eastbound lanes of the freeway with weapons drawn as the driver, a white male, leaned out of the window of his vehicle, gesturing toward them with both hands.
The five-minute standoff was resolved when four CHP officers approached the vehicle from the passenger side, one of them reaching in and pulling the driver across the front seat, and out the passenger side door.
The confrontation ended a chase that began in Westminster when officers attempted to pull the driver over for speeding, CHP Orange County Supervisor Bill Benard said.
Benard said the driver drove in circles on the 405 north during the subsequent pursuit, which reached speeds "well over 100 mph".
The suspect's vehicle, a black Chevy Silverado, came off the 405 near Sherman Oaks and then headed westbound on Ventura Boulevard, occasionally stopping and then accelerating away as officers exited their vehicles.
The suspect drove his vehicle across spiked strips at least twice, but continued to drive as first, his front passenger side tire, then the driver's side rear tire both blew out.
At one point, the pickup was driven slowly north on a residential street, the 4900 block of Rubio Avenue, its rear wheels down to the rims and trailing heavy smoke, as five CHP vehicles followed.
The chase resumed on the eastbound lanes of the 101, the truck fishtailing and spinning in a circle after CHP officers used their vehicles to try to pin it against the center divider.
The pickup came to a stop at 5:10 a.m. Five minutes later, the driver was in custody.


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I've spent the last few hours with the Ultratext app on my iPhone. In that time my productivity has completely cratered. This isn't hyperbole either; I've spent the majority of my time figuring out the most clever uses for the GIF-to-text app. Well, I made taco salad, too. I stumbled onto the app thanks to a writeup by Techcrunch and enough free time to be dangerous. After perusing the app store, I found the app with zero reviews. It won't be that way for long, and I fear the consequences.
Novels will go unfinished. Concertos will end on the wrong note. Paintings will lay incomplete.
Once your custom-made GIF is ready to go, sharing options are displayed: iMessage, Instagram, and e-mail. If you're like me, you're going to use your new skill to text your friends incessantly. On a strategic note, although Ultratext GIFs won't be active in iPhone notifications, recipients will see the first frame of your GIF. You're welcome. By the end of today I expect I'll have few friends left.
One caveat, when choosing to text, your message will automatically be accompanied by some jargon about the GIF being made by the Ultratext app. It can be deleted, but it's still an annoyance. According to the Techcrunch article, Ultratext's founder is planning on offering a version of the app for a dollar the eliminates the automatic text, so there's that.
One other thing now that I mention it, as someone who rarely uses GIFs in text conversations, the presence of a handful can be quite jarring. Or confusing, if you happen to be my girlfriend's mother or even my brother..
If you can't get on board with that, then I don't know what to tell you.


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Despite losing today to the Carolina Panthers, the New York Jets playoff hopes are still alive. However, don't get your hopes up Jets' fans. Although it is mathematically possible, there is a lot that needs to happen and it seems almost impossible for it to happen. Here is everything that needs to occur in order for the New York Jets to make the playoffs:
- The New York Jets win all of their remaining two games.
- The Miami Dolphins lose all of their remaining two games.
- The Baltimore Ravens lose all of their remaining three games.
- The San Diego Chargers lose at least one of their remaining two games.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers lose at least one of their remaining three games.
If and only if ALL of these situations occur the New York Jets will make the playoffs. Although this may seem daunting, it isn't as bad as it seems. By saying this, I mean that instead of it being a 0.1% chance to make the playoffs it's probably somewhere around the 2% range. The reason for this is due to the Ravens, Chargers, and Steelers remaining schedule.
The Ravens need to lose out for the Jets to make the playoffs, although their remaining schedule makes this seem possible. Baltimore will face the Detroit Lions (7-6) on Monday night, the New England Patriots (10-4) in Week 16, and the Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) in the regular season finale. These are all very losable games, and it seems quite possible for the Ravens to lose all of their remaining games.
As for the Chargers and Steelers, they both need to lose just one more game. The Chargers remaining opponents include the Oakland Raiders (4-10) and the Kansas City Chiefs (11-3). Although they will likely beat the Raiders, a loss to the Chiefs is a definite possibility. The Pittsburgh Steelers' final three games are against the Cincinnati Bengals (9-4), the Green Bay Packers (6-7-1), and the Cleveland Browns (4-10). Losses to both the Bengals and Packers seem likely, especially because the Jets only need them to lose once and that Aaron Rodgers will likely be playing next Sunday.
If all this happens, just leaves two more situations need to occur for the Jets to make the playoffs. They need to win out, and the Dolphins need to lose out. In Week 16, the Jets play the Cleveland Browns and the Dolphins play the Buffalo Bills. Although the Jets will likely win their game, the Dolphins have a good chance of beating Buffalo. For argument's sake, lets just say the Dolphins lose to the Bills. This will set up a Week 17 matchup between these two teams and, if all the other situations occur, this game will decide who will make the playoffs.
If the Jets can somehow manage to win two games in a row for the first time this year, along with help from the Dolphins, Ravens, Chargers, and Steelers, the New York Jets playoff dreams will be achieved.


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VALPARAISO | During the month of July, Campbell Street Café will be accepting tips on behalf of Opportunity Enterprises. The café, owned and operated by Pines Village Retirement Communities, will donate a month's worth of patrons' tips to Opportunity Enterprises. As a nonprofit, Pines Village permits cafe employees to accept tips on behalf of charitable organizations in the community that serves older adults.
Ellen DeMartinis, Opportunity Enterprises' interim president/CEO, is pleased to be included. "Not only does this provide us with a financial benefit," said DeMartinis "but events like this continue to build awareness for the needs of children and adults with disabilities living in our community."
To support Opportunity Enterprises through tips in July, enjoy breakfast, lunch or a snack at the Campbell Street Café from 7 a.m. to 2 p.m. Monday through Friday in the Meridian Woods neighborhood off Campbell Street, 4245 Meridian Woods Drive. For more information, visit www.pinesvillage.org.


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What he means by this is I received a refund from my home owner's insurance because I pre-paid a year in advance on the old home in October, and moved out in Dec, so I got 10 months pro-rated refund. I also got a refund from the escrow account on the old house.
Now, he had been out of the house over a year, and in the temp orders I filed in Oct 2011, it was stated that since he refused to contribute to the mortgage or anything else for that matter, all household bills were now my responsibility. Including home owners and escrow fees.
And the appliances - well, he is referring to a 15 year old washer and dryer and a 9 year old fridge. Note here, that he made no request to have any of those items when he made his list of what he wanted from the marital estate. But now he thinks he is entitled to compensation for half.
So, my SI friends, what should I do? Is $800 worth this? In principle, 1000% yes. But money wise? Going to court will cost me probably $1000 in attorney fees. And in the end I might lose.
God damn him to hell. As soon as I got his texts I went right into sheer panic, full body shaking, barely able to type this. He fucking hurt me and my body continues to suffer the trauma. I try and try to beat it down but one word from him and I am a fucking mess. I've moved houses and towns and I still can't get away from the effects of him.
Please tell me what to do. I am in MA if that makes any difference.
OMG now is is texting me tellig me I am in contempt because I told the girls I would take them out to dinner once during the vacation week when he has them. He is fucking crazy.
Divorced 1/17/2013
"Diamonds aren't a girl's best friend, freedom is."
fuck that fucking fuckface mother fucker.
He immediately texts and emails me and says
"If you are serious about taking me to court then you need to provide me with copies of both refunds you received, along with the make and model of the appliances."
I would still pursue it and request he pay your attorney's fees.
He replied with this because he knew it would upset you, make you doubt yourself and what you were doing and hopefully, cause you to back down. He knows how to push your buttons and will continue to push you and try to intimidate you. Don't let him.
[This message edited by lieshurt at 8:30 AM, April 17th (Wednesday)]
He does not have a leg to stand on. You have a court order specifying that you are paying all costs (mortgage, insurance, etc) for the house and that all items in the house are your possession. As far as the appliances, they are 15 and 9 years old. They might fetch $50 each. But that does not matter because they are yours anyway.
Do not let his little temper tantrum upset you. Whenever you get a text from him, your internal response should be "whatever you idiot". Your external response should be crickets.
I hate feeling like this.
I always wonder, "Where the hell is the punishment for breaking the rules??"
Hugs to you. Just follow your lawyer's advice and ignore him. I wish we could say something to knock some common sense in them, but I'm really starting to believe the lectures have to come from someone else, anyone else, than us..
Don't respond to him at all.
AJ's MOM
"Truth has no special time of its own. Its hour is now - always." - Albert Schweitzer
Me: BW - Him: 200+ # tumor removed 7/09
DS - 31 - Yikes!
He is trying to intimidate and bully you. Don't let him.
I know exactly the feeling you describe when receiving texts/emails from XH. Stay strong girl!
Crickets of course.
Now about you and this adrenalin rush you just got through no action on your own. First address the immediate symptoms. Breathe. Do something to reset your body. Hot shower maybe. Cold wash your face. Brisk walk around the block. Jumping jacks. Add another type of physical stimulation on top of the symptoms of adrenalin. It helps tone the whole thing down once your heart rate returns to normal.
Then, soothing self care. Hand cream. Floral tea. More breathing. And recognize you will feel drained and jangly for a few hours.
Then, steps to reduce the future impact of his reaching out to yank your chain. Turn off sound notifications. Turn off other notifications like in the menu bar. Turn your phone face down and leave it that way. If you see that he has sent messages let them stack up and read them once, at a time of your choosing. Practice saying "Whatever, gnat." And breathe.
PTSD is no joke and his text is a bomb going off. gice yourself time to recover from the shock.
Separated, divorcing, moving on.
I edit because I always make typos.
Being sent *dickheadtexts* sucks. It does.
Work through your trauma response. Say "He is a J!A!MF!" out loud a couple of times. Then literally shake your feet, arms, shoulder, and head. Then breathe.....and tell yourself that you'll just hand this over to your L and let him/her deal with it.
Call your L tomorrow or later this afternoon to give him/her a heads-up about what you are dealing with. Let your L call his L to tell his L to get his client under control.
I'm so sorry that you have to deal with this. Your X is a nasty, nasty individual.
In my effort to be *concise*, I often come off as blunt and harsh. Sorry, don't mean to be offensive.
If it's not in the divorce decree or ordered by a court.....you don't have to do shit.
This ^^^^
If his text tantrum is not backed by either of things, or a factual thing about the kids, give him crickets.
And save the texts in case you need to get your lawyer and the courts involved in helping him understand how to STFU.
[This message edited by phillygirl at 12:46 PM, April 17th (Wednesday)]
I am going to check in with my attorney. The ex said his is on vacation.
That being said, give your attorney copies of the text messages, let him handle it and also request attorney fees.
So, get this. I was doing my banking and I noticed the CS was not deposited last Friday. I texted him about it, and he said "no CS during school vacation weeks."
Are you fucking kidding me??? It's iron clad spelled out in the agreement!!!!
I called my attorney's office and by some miracle she was there and answered the phone. I told her about his texts earlier and also about the withheld CS. She said now there's no messing around, that he is in big trouble.
She will file an amended document documenting this witholding, and the times he has been late before.
He is crazy. CRAZY.
That sounds like it came from OW.
Does he think his children don't need to eat or have a roof over their heads when they are on vacation? Idiot.
He is such a conniving, manipulative BULLY. And I HATE that my girls are around his brand of crazy.
What the fuck??? Like you are going to send over all your medication dosages/prescriptions...
What the hell is wrong with this guy? Fuck him.
I'm sure your lawyer will enjoy asking the court that he pay her fees seeing as he is such a fucking idiot.
Married: 11 years, no kids
Character is destiny
First, it is good to see you on the board! It is probably my absence and not yours, but I was delighted to see you on the board....
But OMG I want to come and kick your stbx in the "no-no's" as one of my middle schoolers coined it today. What a fucking fucking fuck indeed.
I felt the anxiety start just reading your description of his texts. Can you forward them to someone who can filter for you? Or does he have the kids right now? If he doesn't have the kids then NOTHING he has to say is important right now. Block him even if just temporarily and get some peace?
On the PTSD and how to get relief, I like the JAMF scream fest as recommended. I tried a hot shower once during a PTSD attack and it was a terrible mistake for me. The shower was too much stimulation and I completely fell apart and horrified at the idea of needing assistance while wet and naked, a puddle of anxiety in the bathroom floor... Did not induce relaxation and release of tension at that point!!
He's throwing a NPD tantrum and bully is the exact right term.
FTG for sure.
(((more hugs)))
Unless he gets a subpoena, you give him no information. None. He can ask all he wants, but unless you receive a subpoena, you do not have to voluntarily answer a thing.
It does get better, but I fully relate to the panic at hearing from the NPD and the bullying. I hate it.
I fully relate to the panic at hearing from the NPD and the bullying. I hate it.
Me too.
I'm sorry.
And what a dick-wad! Fuck him! Don't respond.
He's not just *nasty*...the guy is a JAMF.
He's not paying CS because the kids are on school break? WTF? That is completely and utterly irrational. Kids break, home all day = *higher* expenses, right? Cause you're feeding those little *bottomless* pits all day long instead of just outside of school hours.
He wants a list of your meds? Is he smoking crack?
Hand this fucking moron off to your L. He'll hang himself with that short amount of rope. It would almost be worth it to pay L fees to go to court and let him plead his case to a judge. The thought of that makes me laugh.
If there is an emergency, they can call your lawyer, who can call you and then you can deal with said emergency.
Just a suggestion. Considering such COA (course of action) myself.
It is clear to me he is unravelling further. I will feel so much better when my babies are back with me (they are with him for this vacation week).
What has helped me is that I realize all the yelling and bitching and threatening he does is to keep the focus off what he has done.
I also realized that my children will be with my XH on 52 overnights out of the next 12 months (every other weekend 2 nights) and 2 weeks in the summer and they will be with his mom and sisters who are somewhat normal. So, I have them
the majority of their lives. I am working diligently to show them who I am -- who I used to be before I married their Dad.
It's getting easier, but sometimes he gets me rattled with his texts, too.
It's then that I look around and notice he's not in my living room, he's someone elses problem now, and I try to chill for my kids. (sometimes it takes a couple hours).
Go for it on the court thing. Standing up for yourself makes you feel even better and stronger.
me BS 52
him - 46
married 15 years DIVORCED 10 31 12
children - ds15 ds12
d-day 12-19-11
I gave a 24hour ultimatum then went to attorney next day
Divorce filed


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Believe it or not, we're approaching the one-year anniversary of the release of Windows 7. Those who have moved to the new operating system rave about its sleekness, speed, simplicity and other improvements over previous systems. But according to Symantec's State of the Enterprise Security survey, just 9 percent of enterprises had actually made the switch as of February 2010.
This low number is actually pretty typical of such an upgrade. Many companies choose to let some time pass between the initial launch of the product and their own implementation to ensure that any potential bugs and kinks are worked out. A year after its launch, Windows 7 appears to be stable, efficient and ready to be embraced by the masses.
As you consider your own Windows 7 migration, you're probably curious about how other companies handled the switch. You'd probably like to know where they ran into trouble, what tips they learned along the way and how long the process took them.
We at Symantec were curious as well. That's why we commissioned a survey to 1,500 IT managers around the world who have made the switch to the new operating system. We thought we could uncover their best practices and mistakes to make it easier for those who are about to take on the task of migrating. Here's a sneak peak of a few of the questions we asked our respondents:
• When you migrated your system to Windows 7, how long was each user, on average, offline?
• How long did it take you to migrate each machine to Windows 7?
• In hindsight, considering both ease of process and financial requirements, how would you recommend executing your migration? (Batch, mass or gradual migration)
• How many pilot tests did you perform over the course of your migration to Windows 7?
• Regardless of what Microsoft recommends, in your opinion, what is the minimum amount of RAM you would suggest for a machine running Windows 7? The optimal amount?
As the results come in, we're uncovering some interesting insights that are sure to help anyone thinking of migrating to Windows 7. Stay tuned for a future blog post with the survey results from those who are paving the way for future Windows 7 adapters.


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What Supply Chain and B2B Teams Should Expect in 2014
During the latter part of December, the Ferrari Research and Consulting Group and Supply Chain Matters unveiled our annual research series, 2014 Predictions for Global Supply Chains. Each year we unveil predictions to assist supply chain and B2B fulfillment teams in their planning of initiatives and resources for the coming year.
Our ten predictions for the current year include an economic and supply outlook, continued momentum for North America based manufacturing, some industry unique supply chain challenges and restructuring of global surface transportation networks, among the ten predictions. We do hope that you had the opportunity to view the series and benefit from these predictions.
As we noted in the series, we planned to provide a far more detailed research report available for complimentary download. That report is now available for download.
Our one requirement is that readers provide some basic registration information. Once again, we do not sell any specific reader information with third parties, rather we use this information to assess our reading audience and industry coverage.
Copies of the 2014 Predictions for Global Supply Chains research report can be downloaded from accessing the Supply Chain Matters Research Center.
Report Card on Supply Chain Matters 2013 Predictions- Part Two
On the eve of the beginning of the chronological New Year, it is our time to reflect, look back and scorecard our Supply Chain Matters 2013 Predictions for Global Supply Chains which we published nearly a year ago.
Readers are welcomed to review our predictions for 2014 which we outlined previously in a series of detailed commentaries. But now is the time to look back and reflect on what we previously predicted and what actually occurred in 2013.
In our previous Part One posting, we scored our first five predictions for this year. We now move toward the final five of our predictions and how they fared.
As has been our custom, our scoring process will be based on a four point scale. Four will be the highest score, an indicator that we totally nailed the prediction. One is the lowest score, an indicator of, what on earth were we thinking? Ratings in the 2-3 range reflect that we probably had the right intent but events turned out different.
2013 Prediction Six: Supply Chain Organizations Must Either Embrace and Augment Resiliency or Deal with the Consequences of Poor Business Outcomes.
Rating: 3.0
This particular prediction was motivated by the constant volatility in product demand, supply, and other unplanned events impacting industry supply chains. Volatility exposes the vulnerabilities of existing planning, execution or S&OP processes. Throughout 2013, there were increased incidents of supply chain disruption including a major port strike, the threats of port strikes on involving the U.S. west and east coast ports, major factory and warehouse fires along with continued incidents of unprecedented natural disasters. Just this weekend, a fire destroyed the workshop of internal movement parts-making supplier to Swatch Group and other competitive watch suppliers. Swatch supplies roughly 60 percent of movements used in all Swiss watches. As we pen this update, it remains unclear as to the extent of the damage or parts disruption.
Throughout 2013, we observed more and more evidence of manufacturers investing in people, process and technology augmentation that would address resiliency and more predictive decision-making capabilities. This was further reflected in robust software sales from vendors and services providers that concentrated in enabling resiliency, risk-mitigation and more responsive supply chain decision-making capabilities.
We predicted that Supply Chain Control Tower (SCCT) initiatives, beyond those in high tech and consumer electronics supply chains, would come more to the forefront this year. That turned out to be not the case. There were various reasons including the need for further education, organizational readiness to take on such as an initiative and technology vendors themselves who moved away from articulation of SCCT concepts in their product marketing. This area was a missed prediction for us but we continue in our efforts to provide broader market education in this area.
2013 Prediction Seven: Chinese based Manufacturing and Service Firms will Markedly Increase Their Presence and Influence within Industry Supply Chains
Rating: 4.0
The essence of this prediction stemmed from China's leadership which was encouraging more companies to buy assets overseas and to make strategic investments across targeted industry supply chains. Having in excess of $3 trillion of foreign-exchange reserves helped in the bankrolling of such investments. While natural resource and energy continue to be the predominant strategy our belief was that other industry or geographic penetration strategies would play out in 2013, and that indeed turned out to be the case.
Chinese firms indeed turned their attention toward machinery interests across Europe, making select investments in distressed companies. Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology, a state owned construction equipment producer acquired German equipment maker M-Tec inDecember. Sany Heavy Industries has quietly acquired two German based firms, Putzmeister and Intermix and entered a joint venture with Austria based Palfinger. In the United States, Sany invested in a $60 million office building and adjoining warehouse outside Atlanta in an effort to develop a more significant presence in the U.S. construction equipment market. According to a Wall Street Journal report earlier in the year, Sany has been "scouting for acquisitions and joint ventures to gain a broader product line, more sales and rental outlets."
Tianjin Pipe has invested in a $1.3 billion manufacturing plant in Texas to produce seamless-steel pipe for the oil and gas industry. That plant is expected to be completed in 2014. Hisense USA, the subsidiary of home-appliance and electronics producer Hisense Electric is branching out to become a stand-alone brand of flat panel TV's and mobile handsets from a plant in Georgia. A growing number of China based textile producers including Keer Group and JN Fibers have been investing in new production facilities in the U.S. southeast to supply fabric yarn to Central America apparel producers. Energy costs in the U.S. have become far cheaper not to mention transportation cost advantages for shipping yarns and industrial fibers to Central America, an evolving low-cost manufacturing alternative for the Americas market. These strategic investments allow Chinese yarn and fabric producers a means to overcome existing U.S. tariff barriers for fabric composition.
The most visible and noteworthy investment was the acquisition by China's largest meat producer, Shuanghui Group, of major pork producer Smithfield Foodsfor approximately $4.7 billion. The primary purpose of this acquisition was stated as fostering more export of Smithfield branded pork products towards China's booming consumer market. The reality however is now the presence of a prominent Chinese based food producer within an important segment of the U.S. pork products supply chain. The deal also won approval from U.S. regulatory bodies. Since the Smithfield acquisition, there has been added speculation about added acquisitions in the dairy sector.
We believe we nailed this prediction and thus provided ourselves a generous rating.
2013 Prediction Eight: The Executive Level Voice and Shared Accountability of Supply Chain will Extend into Three Broader Areas
Rating: 2.0 (see below qualifier)
The basis of this prediction was our belief that evolving needs for product design, customer fulfillment and customer service now umbrella, voluntarily or involuntarily, more accountability for the supply chain leadership executive. Visible incidents of botched new product introductions because of initial quality issues or premature component failures across automotive, aerospace and consumer electronic brands during 2012 led us to this broader prediction. The new era of Service Lifecycle Management where OEM's or capital equipment manufacturers offer customer pay by use or pay by hour leasing options was yet another motivator for broadening the accountability umbrella of the supply chain organization.
Throughout 2013 there were continued developments of premature quality and component failures among the above mentioned industry groups. While Ford Motor has introduced quite a number of new vehicle models, its quality indicators are slipping precipitously. Business media headlines were consumed with continuous reports of additional component failure incidents involving Boeing's 787 Dreamliner aircraft. Other incidents that have escaped media visibility continue.
Candidly, our rating of this prediction has been a challenge since we have had difficulty in securing anecdotal or hard evidence of clear increased or broader functional accountabilities among industry supply chain teams. Our intent was to develop a detailed research study to explore this area in 2013 but a lack of time and a specific research sponsor thwarted our efforts. Therefore, we cannot in good conscience provide ourselves an overly positive rating even though our gut belief is that we were on the right track with this prediction. We therefore defer to our readers to add further commentary and perspectives as to whether broader and increased accountability indeed occurred during 2013. Look for flash poll early in the New Year to ascertain if a broader umbrella of accountability is underway.
2013 Prediction Nine: Higher and More Expensive Incidents of Counterfeit Products, Physical and IP Theft or Grey Market Activities Would Motivate Stepped-Up Mitigation Efforts.
Rating: 3.0
The incidents and challenges surrounding the continued existence of counterfeit products, physical and intellectual property theft, and grey market activities unquestionably continued across multiple industry fronts throughout 2013. In 2012, U.S. Customs and Border Protection alone seized over $178 million in counterfeit goods coming into the United States. Among pharmaceutical and healthcare supply chains, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) had to once again alert physicians and healthcare providers to yet another batch of the cancer fighting drug Avastin early in 2013. In March, U.S. Customs officials seized $3.6 million in counterfeit Viagra and Cialis in a warehouse in South Carolina. That same raid also uncovered a large quantity of counterfeit golf clubs within the same warehouse. Counterfeit drugs were not just in proprietary but generic versions of drugs as well. Generic manufacturer Teva Pharmaceutical had to step-up quality inspections of its off-patent heartburn drugs across Europe after healthcare providers and patients noticed miss-spellings in the drug labels. The World Health Organization (WHO) disclosed that there is still no accurate estimate of the global scale of counterfeit medicines. Reports by others groups suggest that the size of the global counterfeit drugs industry could run into hundreds of billions of dollars.
The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime concluded in an April report that counterfeit goods, mainly originating from China, have become as profitable as illegal drug trafficking for Asia based criminal gangs. The UN agency concluded that counterfeit goods traced to China are the direct source of about two-thirds of the world's counterfeit goods. Many watchdog agencies have concluded that counterfeiters have become far more sophisticated in their methods of production and distribution. China is also the primary area of the most concern regarding intellectual property (IP) protection, and has become a primary motivator for current decisions to near source design and manufacturing to other consuming regions such as the United States.
Despite all the above evidence and incidents, industry supply chains such as the pharmaceutical industry continue to battle a rising tide. While many firms have specific compliance leadership and staff resources, efforts generally were directed at certain controls within current budgetary parameters. They include early detection, audit and product packaging techniques to make it more difficult for counterfeiters to distribute fake goods. Calls from governmental agencies for stricter or mandated tracking, inspections and controls remain muted and subject to political lobbying. Private industry must step-up and come up with enhanced solutions.
Meanwhile, consumers, patients and services providers continue to remain the victims. While we correctly predicted the wide-scale scope of the ongoing problem, stepped-up mitigation efforts apparently lagged.
2013 Prediction Ten: Cloud Computing and Managed Services Options Continue to Gain More Traction Provided that Vendors Resolve Lingering Customer Concerns.
Rating: 3.0
The year 2013 featured the ongoing shift of influence and the ultimate decision in technology buying moving away from IT and towards the business side, with the continued counsel of the CIO and IT teams. The fate of technology investments to enable expected and more timely business outcomes is quickly shifting into the hands of business and supply chain teams. At the same time, huge multi-year technology transformation initiatives were shunned in favor of targeted, tactical business process change initiatives of average 3-6 months duration that phase-in capabilities toward a desired multi-phased end-goal. This fostered a greater attraction toward cloud computing, managed services or best-of-breed selection options that
provided teams managed scope and much quicker time-to-benefit.
During the year, industry analyst and other published surveys pointed to less resistance for certain supply chain mission critical processes moving toward hybrid or public clouds, provided that vendors could ensure strict security standards, less onerous contract language and quicker implementation methodologies. However, the November-December incident involving the security breach of retailer Target's point-of-sale systems will most likely significantly re-ignite security concerns again in 2014.
In 2013, many supply chain technology vendors continued their wholesale shifts at providing customers broad cloud-based options in planning, B2B collaboration and execution management. Thus far, customers seem to be comfortable with adopting such options, but again, in managed scope. Tight budgets for technology adoption also contributed to the attractiveness for cloud-based options since technology investments can be funded within business operating budgets.
This concludes our 2013 Predictions scorecard. We trust that you, our readers, secured benefit from these predictions as they transpired this year. While we did not hit a home run on every prediction, we were certainly in the game.
Readers are invited to add their observations in the Comments area regarding our predictions for this year and our self-rating.
Sincere thanks for your continued loyal readership throughout 2013 and we extend our wishes for a productive and rewarding 2014.
Bob Ferrari, Executive Editor and Managing Director
© 2013 The Ferrari Consulting and Research Group LLC and the Supply Chain Matters Blog. All rights reserved.
Report Card on Supply Chain Matters 2013 Predictions- Part One
On the eve of the beginning of the chronological New Year, it is our time to reflect, look back and scorecard our Supply Chain Matters 2013 Predictions for Global Supply Chains which we published nearly a year ago.
Readers are welcomed to review our predictions series for 2014 which we outlined previously in a series of detailed commentaries. But now is the time to look back and reflect on what we predicted and what actually occurred in 2013.
As has been our custom, our scoring process will be based on a four point scale. Four will be the highest score, an indicator that we totally nailed the prediction. One is the lowest score, an indicator of, what on earth were we thinking? Ratings in the 2-3 range reflect that we probably had the right intent but events turned out different.
So here we go with each of the predictions we had concerning 2013:
2013 Prediction One: Yet Another Year of Global Challenges to Support Required Revenue and Profit Growth.
Rating: 3.5
Many of our readers and clients residing in multiple industry supply chains can well attest to the constant challenges that were incurred throughout 2013.
Regarding the overall global economy, the IMF had originally projected 2013 global growth to be 3.6 percent overall, but that number was constantly adjusted downward throughout this year. The current 2013 estimate is for growth to be 2.9 percent, a considerable difference from the start of the year and a reflection of the many economic uncertainties across global markets.
Optimistic revenue and profit growth that was focused squarely on emerging market economies such as China turned out to be more challenging, since the growth in many of these sectors was more subdued. According to China's own forecasters, that economy is expected to complete this year with overall growth of 7.6 percent, a far cry from the double-digit growth rates of past years. When we developed our predictions a year ago, both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the OECD predicted China's growth rate in 2013 to be in the range of 8.2 to 8.5 percent. Growth among the Eurozone region remained rather challenging throughout the year, but finally bottomed towards the second-half. Growth in the U.S. struggled in the first half, and rebounded considerably in this current quarter.
Fortunately, there were no widespread supplier failures during the year, and we are pleased that we missed on that part of our prediction.
This has indeed been a year of uncertainties and industry supply chains had to respond to product demand or contraction requirements at the most discrete levels.
2013 Prediction Two: Stabilized and Potentially Reduced Inbound Commodity Prices with Certain Exceptions.
Score: 3.5
Commodity costs did indeed moderate throughout 2013 as reflected in the Standard and Poor's GSCI Commodity Index being down 5 percent as of mid-November. Prices in certain sectors were down considerably but there were some upside pressures in energy related costs. However, commodity costs among emerging market regions such as India and China remained challenging during the year because of currency and local economic conditions.
Costs in the food related sector were not as high as we predicted a year ago, although severe weather did indeed impact various global regions. Global supply and demand forces seemed to compensate for shortfalls.
Procurement teams drove deeper into indirect material costs to foster additional overall cost reductions. That included areas such as utilities, transportation, travel, temporary labor and other services. The market for spend analysis tools continued robust, which was reflection of continued cost savings initiatives in this sector.
The year 2013 was a good year for procurement teams, better than past years.
2013 Prediction Three: The Renaissance of U.S. Based Manufacturing to Continue Throughout 2013
Rating: 3.8
This prediction was a relative no-brainer. Throughout 2013, we tracked PMI growth among the major manufacturing regions. By Q3 it was rather clear that the production activity in the United States was clearly gaining more momentum over other regions. The strategic advantages of cheaper energy and a stable currency, coupled with continued concerns for double-digit cost increases of direct labor and global transportation continued to motivate more manufacturers to elect either expansion or initiation of a U.S. based manufacturing initiative.
Among the business headlines in 2013 were names such as Caterpillar, Motorola, General Electric and Wal-Mart, all making considerable announcements. Regarding Wal-Mart, that global retailer committed $50 billion over the next ten years to assist certain suppliers in expanding their U.S. manufacturing presence. Even the world's top contract manufacturer Flextronics, which has three-quarters of its manufacturing capacity located in low-cost manufacturing regions, is now investing millions to upgrade its four million square feet of manufacturing capacity across the United States. A landmark study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's (MIT) Task Force on Production and Innovation was released in the latter half of this year which provided additional recommendations for public-private partnerships and industry innovation zones. We predicted continued momentum for U.S. based manufacturing to continue in 2014.
2013 Prediction Four: Supply Chain Talent Retention, Management and Development to Remain a Significant Challenge.
Rating: 4.0
Talent retention and management has been a significant challenge since 2012. We predicted this would continue in 2013, and that has indeed been reinforced in many executive surveys and reports throughout this year. So much so that we elected to carryover this prediction into 2014 as well and readers can review our 2014 Prediction Four commentary for the detailed perspectives on the current problem and what strategy needs are required to overcome the challenges of maintaining a skilled supply chain management workforce that provides ample opportunities for career growth.
2013 Prediction Five: Two Industry Supply Chains, B2C and Aerospace to Undergo More Significant Challenges.
B2C Supply Chains
Rating: 3.8
As we pen our 2013 Predictions scorecard, the aspects of the massive transformation for how consumers shop for goods has reached the top quadrant of business media headlines. The good and not so good news for 2013 was that it was a banner year for online fulfillment. As we close 2013 and the holiday buying surge, online retailers and shipping companies as pointing fingers at one another as to what went wrong in the final days as capacity came to a grinding halt. Brick and mortar retailers learned a lot from 2012 and deployed more effective strategies to overcoming consumer showrooming or price shopping. They invested in online fulfillment and broader multi-channel and multi-tier inventory management capabilities. The not so good news is that retail sales forecasts turned out to be too optimistic as economically stressed consumers were very diligent with their shopping habits, seeking out best possible price coupled with best strategic timing of purchases. In the Eurozone countries, consumers are especially distressed and that was reflected in shopping patterns throughout this year.
The 2013 holiday buying season appears to be headed toward disappointment for certain retailers, despite unprecedented promotional and price competitive activities. A shorter 26 day period between the Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday period did not help, and frequent winter storms impacted shopping trends. Since the Christmas holiday, by far the most prominent headline has been the security breach across Target Stores retail locations compromising an estimated 40 million credit card accounts. The other prominent headline was UPS's failure to guarantee delivery of holiday related packages, which by our view, was a scapegoat for retailers over aggressiveness in pushing the envelope in instant delivery. There are reports that Amazon signed up over one million free shipping Prime accounts the week before Christmas. The online retailer than guaranteed delivery as late as Sunday, two days prior to the holiday. UPS has now indicated that 132 million packages entered its network the week before Christmas, and we now know the results.
Our prediction called for at least one, possibly two failure announcements concerning high visibility retailers. We can now disclose the names that we had in-mind, namely JC Penny and Sears. Both of these retailers continue to struggle with the overall effects of the online, Omni-commerce economy and as the Wall Street Journal recently opined, the availability and abundance of cheap financing provided another few months of added life. We predicted that Amazon would have another banner year in 2013 and all indications are that this will be the case. We therefore believe that while were fairly close on consequence, timing and events produced a bit of a delay as to our prediction. Candidly, we were of the belief that retailers had addressed systems security needs but the Target incident will have significant retailer implications in the coming months.
Aerospace Supply Chains
Rating: 3.8
Once again, Aerospace industry supply chains dis indeed encounter extraordinary challenges throughout this year. These challenges were twofold. The continued after- effects of severe global recession and high debt spending among national governments caused cutbacks in military and defense spending. This was especially evident in Europe and the United States. For the U.S., the so-termed automatic sequester cutbacks were directed squarely on military and defense spending and effects quickly spilled over to defense divisions of aerospace companies. Both Airbus and Boeing have since announced layoffs and cutbacks centered on each of their defense sectors.
At the same time, the boom for airline demand for new technologically advanced and more fuel-efficient commercial aircraft continued unabated. The literal duopoly of Airbus and Boeing continued to dominate industry news in 2013 as both global OEM's continued to balance unprecedented increases in new orders for aircraft while challenged to dramatically increase the production volumes for finished aircraft. The current backlog of sold new aircraft remains incredibly healthy and both Airbus and Boeing may yet again announce new records in order volumes for 2013. At the recent Dubai Air Show held in November, new aircraft orders amounting to excess of $150 billion were booked with delivery slots beginning in 2020. Meanwhile, program delays continue to make business headlines along with Boeing's tense relationship and conflicts with its organized labor unions.
Other smaller industry OEM's such as Bombardier, Embraer and COMAC compete for niche aircraft segment needs, and each of these players faced critical milestones in 2013.
Aircraft engine suppliers General Electric, Safran and Rolls Royce were beneficiaries of unprecedented new aircraft orders. GE Aviation has a backlog of orders for 15,000 new generation aircraft engines between now and 2020 and must fulfill a delivery rate of more than 4,000 engines per year for the next two years amid increasing customer orders for its new GE90, GEnx and CFM56 engine models.
Thus, 2013 was an incredible contrast for aerospace supply chains in overcoming the challenges of relentless product demand and capacity barriers in the commercial sector with cutbacks and re-structuring in military and defense sectors. And this is just the beginning of other challenges to come in 2014.
This concludes Part One of our 2013 Predictions scorecard. In Part Two we will review our other five predictions for this year and how they fared. Readers are certainly encouraged to add their observations regarding either our predictions for this year and our self-rating.
© 2013 The Ferrari Consulting and Research Group LLC and the Supply Chain Matters Blog. All rights reserved.
Supply Chain Matters 2014 Predictions for Global Supply Chains- Part Eight
Once a year, just before the start of the New Year, the Ferrari Consulting and Research Group and the Supply Chain Matters Blog provide our series of predictions for the coming year. These predictions are provided in the spirit of advising supply chain organizations in setting management agenda for the year ahead, as well as helping our readers and clients to prepare their supply chain management teams in establishing programs, initiatives and educational agendas for the upcoming New Year.
In Part One of this series, we unveiled the methodology and complete listing of our 2014 predictions.
Part Two in this series summarized Prediction One related on what to expect in the global economy and Prediction Two, what to expect in procurement costs.
Part Three summarized Predictions Three, continued momentum associated with the resurgence in U.S. and North America production, and Prediction Four, talent recruitment and retention as a continued challenge.
Part Four addressed some unique industry specific supply chain challenges in 2014.
Part Five predicted increased implications regarding current supply chain social responsibility strategies and practices.
Part Six explored the implications of increased supply chain risk on global sourcing strategies in 2014.
Part Seven dived into Prediction 8 related to expected global transportation consolidation developments, along with Prediction 9, our forecast for increased momentum in the "Internet of Things".
In this final posting, we dive into our final prediction regarding what to expect in the information technology and services market arena next year.
Prediction 10: Continued Technology Investments in Cloud Computing, Predictive Analytics and Select Supply Chain Services.
As noted in Prediction One, barring some ongoing remaining uncertainty, global economic growth in 2014 is forecasted to grow at a minimum of one percentage point from 2013, a number expected to be 3.6 percent. That is a significant and long anticipated movement.
Industry supply chains will thus continue to turn their attention to increased business process and technology investments in 2014 to support business needs for increased top-line revenue and profitability growth, even more heightened industry competition, and enabling supply chain teams for more responsive to events. At the same time, continued uncertainties that abound in certain geographic markets and significantly increased risks associated with supply or value-chain disruption will place much more emphasis on more predictive planning that is closely integrated with customer focused fulfillment and execution process needs. The current explosion in Multi-channel and/or Omni-channel fulfillment capability challenges outlined in Prediction Five will further drive increased technology investments in that area.
We believe that the prime areas for added investment will include:
- Enhanced sensing of product and specific geographic regional demand.
- Deeper and broader supply and value-chain visibility, including identifying and mitigating risk areas within lower tiers of the supply chain.
- More predictive analytics and supply chain wide intelligence. That would include the overall integration of predictive planning capabilities that span supplier sourcing, ongoing supply and demand network design and/or reconfiguration, multi-tiered inventory optimization and multi-channel fulfillment management.
- More emphasis on leveraging a single B2B network platform, connecting all key suppliers, with needs for integrating value-chain wide planning, team collaboration and customer and supplier fulfillment execution needs.
We concur with other industry analyst firms such as Gartner and IDC that the ongoing shift of influence and the ultimate decision in technology buying continues away from IT and towards the business side, with the continued counsel of the CIO and IT teams. The fate of technology investments to enable expected and more timely business outcomes now rests in the hands of business and supply chain teams.
The days of huge multi-year technology transformation initiatives will continue to shift toward targeted, tactical business process change initiatives of an average 3-6 months duration that phase-in capabilities toward a desired end-goal. The main focus will therefore continue to favor the Geoffrey Moore definitions of "systems of Innovation" and "systems of engagement."
Hence, cloud computing and/or cloud-based applications technology options will continue to gain added attention across supply chain and B2B fulfillment areas because of needs toward quicker time-to-value. Because so many supply chainand customer fulfillment processes are deemed to be mission critical for the business, B2B platform vendors will need to continue to enhance data security management and control practices, especially in the light of continued incidents and threats of data breaches across multiple industry networks. We continue in our belief that augmentation of cloud computing with managed services will be an attractive alternative for some select product or service management focused supply chains. We additionally believe that in 2014, supply chain teams will tend to hold favor toward private-based cloud options for the more mission critical aspects of product fulfillment, but will be somewhat more open to either hybrid or public cloud options supporting deeper analytics, value-chain wide collaboration or business intelligence.
In the area of predictive analytics, we predict 2014 will begin the emergence of a broader set of technology or services vendors offering deeper, cloud-based analytical capabilities in analyzing structured and unstructured data. These capabilities will have a strong dependence on supply chain wide event-driven data planning and execution streams. Predictive analytics will thus move toward more sense, predict and respond forms of approaches, including managed services of data scientists. This will afford the opportunity for supply chain teams to springboard capabilities in this area beyond the timetables of in-house development and better enable the foundations for supply chain control tower capabilities. Additionally, vendor marketing strategies that hype "Big Data" enablement will meet the reality of what teams really require, namely smarter, highly focused and more predictive data and insights that enable much more timely decision-making.
Finally in 2014, we anticipate broader consideration and evaluation of private and public social based interaction technologies to supplement existing product sensing and demand planning process needs, strategic vendor collaboration and broader external interactions within Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) processes. While a limited amount of supply chain teams explored this area in 2013, primarily on the sensing of product demand, we anticipate broader business process explorations and pilot capabilities occurring in 2014.
Ladies and gentlemen, it's a rap, and that leads us to the conclusion of our series of ten predictions for the upcoming year.
We trust that these predictions and insights will help you and your organization prepare for personal and organizational team initiatives in the coming year. Once again, readers are encouraged to provide feedback or add your own view of what to expect in 2014 in the Comments section below each of our eight postings.
Throughout 2014, Supply Chain Matters will be providing periodic updates regarding these prediction areas and our research services arm will additionally feature some select research reports that dive even deeper into some of these supply chain management areas.
Our complete research report, 2014 Predictions for Global Supply Chains will be available for no-cost complimentary download via our blog Research Center in early January. In the meantime, if you desire to receive a personal copy via direct email, please send your request to: supplychaininfo <at> theferrarigroup <dot> com. Please include your name, organization, title and email address in the request.
We extend to all of readers and followers our best wishes for a productive and rewarding New Year along with continued personal success.
Bob Ferrari
Executive Editor of Supply Chain Matters, Managing Director, The Ferrari Consulting and Research Group
©2013 The Ferrari Consulting and Research Group LLC and the Supply Chain Matters Blog. All rights reserved.
Supply Chain Matters 2014 Predictions for Global Supply Chains- Part Seven
Once a year, just before the start of the New Year, the Ferrari Consulting and Research Group and the Supply Chain Matters Blog provide our series of predictions for the coming year. These predictions are provided in the spirit of advising supply chain organizations in setting management agenda for the year ahead, as well as helping our readers and clients to prepare their supply chain management teams in establishing programs, initiatives and educational agendas for the upcoming New Year.
In Part One of this series, we unveiled the methodology and complete listing of our 2014 predictions.
Part Two in this series summarized Prediction One related on what to expect in the global economy and Prediction Two, what to expect in procurement costs.
Part Three summarized Predictions Three, continued momentum associated with the resurgence in U.S. and North America production, and Prediction Four, talent recruitment and retention as a continued challenge.
Part Four addressed some unique industry specific supply chain challenges in 2014.
Part Five predicted increased implications regarding current supply chain social responsibility strategies and practices.
Part Six explored the implications of increased supply chain risk on global sourcing strategies in 2014.
In this posting, we dive into Prediction 8 related to expected global transportation developments and shifts, along with Prediction 9, increased momentum in the "Internet of Things".
Prediction 8: Industry Re-structuring of Global Transportation Surface and Air Networks Increases Momentum in 2014 as Carriers Adjust to Realities
In 2013, global ocean container lines, air freight and surface transportation carriers experienced the presence of shippers that continue to elect, because of budget reasons, more economical and less priority prone transportation options. The reasons were obvious for shippers. A continued uncertain global economy, along with the effects of severe recession in the Eurozone motivated shippers to rely on more economical and cost effective transportation modes. In surface transportation, a rather volatile environment of actual vs. stated tariff rates had some shippers opting for spot market tendering to take advantage of less costly rates than those contracted. Improved planning of supply needs coupled with broader inventory visibility across the global supply chain provided more confidence among shippers to opt for regularly scheduled surface transportation.
Shifting patterns for product sourcing and increased momentum for near-shoring of production and distribution is further contributing to the trend. Supply Chain Matters featured a number of commentaries regarding global transportation industry structural shifts, rate trends, and what we viewed as a failure of the industry to deal with blatant realities of quickly changing global sourcing and trade patterns and too much capacity chasing lower transport volumes
Global transportation and logistics giants FedEx and UPS incurred a series of consecutive quarters where capacity allocated for priority air movement was significantly underutilized because of the shipping trends noted above. Each of these carriers in turn, have taken proactive measures throughout 2013 to re-structure or re-align excess capacity dedicated to priority movements and at the same time, initiated efforts to compensate for lost revenues and potential profits with either rate increases or further expense reductions. Both carriers have announced rate increases ranging from 3.9 to 4.9 percent for ground and air shipments in 2014.
In ocean container segment, the picture is far more complex and troubling. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Review of Maritime Transportation 2013, growth in 20-foot equivalent units (TEU's) slowed significantly in 2012 with a volume increase of 3.2 percent. This was down from 7.1 percent from 2011, and 13.1 percent in 2010. Final volume numbers for 2013 may slightly exceed 2012. Multiple years of excess shipping capacity is now exacerbated by the ongoing delivery of massive new mega-ships designed to carry far more containers at a lower overall cost. As an example, over the next two and one-half years, industry lead Maersk alone has plans to introduce into global service 20 new mega-ships, capable of transporting up to 18,000 containers with up to 35 percent less consumption of fuel.
A troubling global economy and certain cutbacks in global trade have not help. The problem has been compounded by carrier optimism that global shipping movements would eventually return to growth. An overall reluctance to maintain excess capacity has led to hemorrhaging balance sheets for shipping lines with multiple unsuccessful and some successful attempts to increase shipping rates to compensate for lost revenues and excess fixed debt and operating costs. In the latter part of 2012, the industry anticipated 4 to 5 percent volume growth only to discover that demand turned a negative 2 percent.
In January of 2013, the CEO of industry leading Maersk revealed in an interview with the Financial Times that the carrier was losing $8m-$9m daily. By October of 2013, the CEO of Maersk indicated in an interview with business network CNBC that "the worst is over for the global shipping industry but so are the glory days." That was clarified to a statement that most goods that can be shipped by ocean container are already being shipped with little silver bullets of shipping on the horizon. We viewed that declaration as an industry milestone.
As we pen this prediction, the top three ocean container lines have a proposal before multiple global regulators to pool capacity and global scheduling under the termed P3 Network. Another industry consortium, the termed G6 Alliance announced plans to expand their cooperation in certain global routes. Each of these initiatives require regulatory approval and there is lots of speculation as to whether governmental agencies will sign-off on such actions involving the management control of hundreds of vessels across key global trade routes. On December 5th,news broke that sixth ranked carrier Hapag and 20th ranked CSAV were engaged in merger discussions, If both lines were to merge, the combined entity would rank fourth globally. In would as well motivate other potential player moves.
For all of these reasons, industry supply chain should anticipate increased momentum in the re-structuring of global transportation capacity and networks. What is unclear is the eventual impact on transportation rates or schedule performance, either from a positive or not so positive perspective. An optimistic scenario is that container lines and air freight carriers are successful in re-structuring networks to maximize efficiency, service, newer fuel-efficient equipment and lower overall operating costs, to benefit of shipping rates. Another scenario, particularly for the ocean container segment is more accelerated consolidation and fallout of marginal carriers. Efforts to expand consortium influence on control and management of capacity and rates will not be well received by regulators and influential shippers.
The bottom line prediction is that procurement and shipping leaders should expect continued global transportation developments during 2014 and close relationships and contracting arrangements with trusted carriers will be important during this period. However, there may continue to be cost affordable transportation options by venturing into the spot market.
Prediction Nine: Internet of Things Picks-up Considerable Momentum
In April 2012, The Economist magazine declared the coming of what it termed as "The Third Industrial Revolution", a new era from the second industrial revolution that began in the 20th Century with the advent of assembly line manufacturing in the United States. This new era is enabled by the increasing digitization or individualization of manufacturing processes. Cited were continued breakthroughs in 3D printing, individualized or additive manufacturing techniques, faster and more sophisticated engineering and manufacturing simulation and the increased benefits derived from the "Internet of Things" or machine-to-machine (M2M) technologies. And, it is not just a revolution in manufacturing, but in how services related to manufactured products will be delivered.
The Internet of Things provides a new era of interconnected and intelligent physical devices and/or machines that will revolutionize supply chain processes related to production, transportation, logistics and service management. IDC recently predicted 30 billion autonomously connected endpoints and $8.9 trillion in revenue by 2020. It will profoundly impact both product and service focused supply chains in months and years to come and we predict more increased momentum in 2014.
Automotive and truck OEM's continue to design and deploy smarter on-board technologies affixed to Internet connectivity in motor and commercial transit vehicles facilitating far more responsive and efficient methods to track operational status, route vehicles, or revise routing on a real-time basis.
In 2013, General Electric made a major product design and deployment commitment to what it termed as the Industrial Internet. The conglomerate characterizes industrial internet as a combination of sensor, software, analytics, data visualization and other technology tools integrated into complex machines such as turbines, locomotives, aircraft engines and other equipment. Industrial Internet is further described as providing contextually relevant information in a near real-time basis that can monitor, control or modify actual conditions of industrial assets. Readers might recall current GE television commercials that provide visuals of aircraft engines communicating to maintenance teams current operating performance parameters and alerting to when maintenance will be required to avoid downtime. In its initial announcement, GE announced partnerships with a variety of other information technology and services firms including Amazon Web Services, AT&T, Cisco, Intel, Pivotal, among others and reinforced the emergence of new and previous unheard of vendor ecosystems that bring together manufacturing OEM, technology and service firms collaborating on enablement and delivery of more innovative products and services enabled by Internet real-time connectivity and more powerful analytical tools.
M2M facilitates needs to synchronize manufacturing devices and/or networks to the pace of market demand and further enable mass customization of products. It further accelerates asset intensive manufacturer's needs to enable broader product platform-as-a-service services that help customers to avoid large up-front investments in capital equipment in favor of forms of "pay by the hour" leasing and service agreements over multiple time horizons. It helps manufacturers to build annuity type revenue and profitability opportunities.
We believe that M2M and smarter machine investment and development efforts will expand beyond just the United States but to other geographic regions and will feature more announcements from well noted global based players in both manufacturing, services and technology circles. Following typical investment and development cycles, efforts will continue toward most promising business cases for M2M, and we believe that will center squarely on the capital equipment intensive services management segment. We expect other developments to come in the logistics and transportation services segment.
Expect other announcements from global players such as Siemens which will lead to additional partnerships as influential industry players, both classic manufacturing and tech-focused, jump on to building market momentum. We agree with current industry participants that security remains an important obstacle to broader deployment and it will be important for 2014 development efforts to focus on stronger network and data related security measures. A further open question is whether more organizations are ready to leverage M2M networks for product innovation, or have the resources and where-with-all to do so. For the time being, GE has a huge leg-up in this area.
This concludes Part Seven of our Supply Chain Matters 2014 Predictions series.
Keep your browser focused on Supply Chain Matters as in an upcoming posting, we conclude this series with our final predictions related to information technology in 2014.
As always, readers are encouraged to add individual or their own organizational perspectives to these predictions in the Comments section associated to each of the postings in this series.
© 2013 The Ferrari Consulting and Research Group and the Supply Chain Matters Blog. All rights reserved.
Supply Chain Matters 2014 Predictions for Global Supply Chains- Part Six
Once a year, just before the start of the New Year, the Ferrari Consulting and Research Group and the Supply Chain Matters Blog provide our series of predictions for the coming year. These predictions are provided in the spirit of advising supply chain organizations in setting management agenda for the year ahead, as well as helping our readers and clients to prepare their supply chain management teams in establishing programs, initiatives and educational agendas for the upcoming New Year.
In Part One of this series, we unveiled the methodology and complete listing of our 2014 predictions.
Part Two of this series summarized Prediction One related on what to expect in the global economy and Prediction Two, what to expect in procurement costs.
Part Three of the series summarized Predictions Three, continued momentum associated with the resurgence in U.S. and North America production, and Prediction Four, talent recruitment and retention as a continued challenge.
Part Four addressed some unique industry specific supply chain challenges in 2014.
Part Five predicted increased implications regarding current supply chain social responsibility strategies and practices.
In this Part Six commentary, we move on to the implications of increased supply chain risk.
Prediction Seven: Increased Dimensions of Supply Chain Risk and Major Disruption will Further Impact Global Sourcing Strategies
Since our inception in 2008 as both a supply chain social media based educational forum and industry analyst anchored consulting firm, we have continually raised awareness to the increased occurrence of major supply chain disruption and risk. Industry supply chains encountered the brute reality of such risks in the year 2011, with the industry supply chain effects of both the devastating earthquake and tsunami that struck areas of Northern Japan and the widespread floods in Thailand that impacted multiple production facilities.
Supply Chain Matters has moved to many other post 2011 commentaries addressing areas of increased risk and their potential implications to business performance. In the area of extraordinary climatic events, each passing year brings an unfortunate new meaning definition of historic magnitudes of storms. In 2013 alone, the world witnessed one of the largest and most destructive typhoons, which struck the Philippines. Across the U.S. Midwest, records were shattered in regards to the most powerful tornadoes ever recorded that brought associated destruction and loss of life. Risk also escalated in the occurrence of natural disasters including more powerful and frequent earthquake events, some of which have occurred in key component supply regions such as Taiwan.
In our previous publishing of annual predictions, we raised awareness to increasing threats and exposures. In 2012, we modified our prediction in this area to include effects of liability insurance costs as a new consideration factor in major sourcing decisions. Since that time, the voices echoing increased disruption risk across global supply chains has magnified with multiple consulting firms, insurance providers and corporate liability firms joining in the chorus of concern. Yet, we live in a world of shortened sound bites and in the moment memories. Recent surveys of supply chain executives indicate a lowered priority on risk management, probably because there are so many other challenges and priorities on the minds of industry supply chain executives.
Government and industry groups look to escalating climatic events as uncontrollable acts of nature which are the new normal. However, we have again added the challenge of major supply chain risk to our 2014 predictions primarily because of the implications of the various events that are occurring.
For a number of valid business reasons, major amounts of product design, test, and component and volume production are sourced across coastal regions of Asia. We all know these areas well: China, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan and the Philippines to name just a few. Major customer service and support operations also stem from areas of Asia and Oceania. The countries that they are located within are today the most fragile in terms of extraordinary climatic events, natural disasters and flooding. Insurance providers and the re-insurance brokers that finance global risk threats are well attuned to these trends, and price liability or business recovery insurance rates based on risk probability. If you need reinforcement, read their global risk summaries and reports. A preliminary analysis of natural disasters in the first-half of 2013, performed by global re-insurance firm Swiss-Re, estimated $56 billion in economic losses from disasters. According to the Swiss Re analysis, flooding was a main-driver of natural catastrophe related losses accounting for nearly $8 billion in global insurance claims. Global insurance covered upwards of 35 percent of these losses, amounting to $20 billion.
Many corporations self-insure to some extent, under the guise of the probabilities of extraordinary events that would impact the business. Recent history of events, their impacts on the supply chain, and consequent impacts on revenues and profits have additional new meaning for corporate finance executives.
We believe that in 2014, the ongoing cumulative effects of increased financial and business disruption liabilities will compel more manufacturers, retailers and service supply chains to once again revisit global sourcing strategies, especially in the light of risk among strategic suppliers, both in upper and lower tiers of the value-chain. Dual or alternative sourcing strategies among strategic suppliers will become ever more important and will drive some new sourcing patterns that include different or diverse geographies to balance risk. Product development, sourcing and procurement teams must be proactive to implications of these developments and will need to depend on more sophisticated analysis tools to identify component risks in relation to overall revenue dependence and weighted risks for disruption in supply.
Suppliers that provide strategic components, products and/or services for key customers may well be fielding requests for considering the locating of facilities in different geographic areas that offset risk and provide contingency back-up to a major disruption. We believe the days of sourcing based on one-dimensional cost and labor dimensions are over and 2014 will bring new dimensions of analytical analysis, advanced information technology and consequent sourcing actions that balance as much as possible, global risk. This will be a far different dimension of supply chain risk management and mitigation and firms had best be prepared for the new shift.
This concludes Part Six of our 2014 Predictions series.
Keep your browser focused on Supply Chain Matters as in an upcoming posting, we will move on to Prediction Eight, which predicts further turbulence in global transportation carrier networks.
As always, readers are encouraged to add individual or their own organizational perspectives to these predictions in the Comments section associated to each of the postings in this series.
© 2013 The Ferrari Consulting and Research Group LLC, and the Supply Chain Matters Blog. All rights reserved