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tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-67512852159388501382015-10-09T10:17:04.414-07:00Needle Tatting and other NonsenseThe musings of a tattooed needle tatterTotusMelhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com://feedburner.google.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-18471177001942270272015-10-09T04:35:00.004-07:002015-10-09T04:35:47.287-07:00ArmsThough I did get a sale in my etsy shop yesterday, thank goodness, I had already made two of the piece that sold. This means that the sale didn't give me any reason to tat another. Although I might take a break from knitting today to do so anyway, just for the sake of tatting. I was just on a nice roll with the sweater I'm trying to construct. I took some time right after schooling to move the piece from one circular needle to two so I could try it on and lo and behold it fit well. I really didn't know if it was going to work at all given all the liberties I had taken with the base pattern. Really, the only time I was on pattern was the first 10 rows or so.

In fact I managed to get all the way to the bottom of the sweater and start on one arm yesterday. Of course it wasn't all roses, I didn't really like the bind off edge I had done, so once both arms are complete I'm likely going to rip back the bottom a bit and give it another go. I know I've done a loose enough bind off on projects before, I just can't remember which ones right now. I'm certain the Internet will provide all the answers. At the rate I'm working I might should have a wearable garment by Monday. That is of course, unless I muck something up horribly, which is a real possibility.

So I guess I'm going to try for some knitting, some tatting, and probably a little way overdue cleaning. Hopefully I'll emerge on Monday with more things to share.TotusMelhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-35103454159617937632015-10-08T04:45:00.000-07:002015-10-08T04:45:29.048-07:00SweaterI had the worst time trying to find a project yesterday. Again, there were no sales in my shop, nor tatting ideas to pull me out of this random fiber arts whirlwind I've been on lately. Perhaps I just needed a break to make some things for myself that didn't need to be sell-able. Well eventually I decided that what I really wanted to make for me was one of those great loose knit sweaters everyone wears in post apocalyptic entertainment. You know the ones that look like they should be falling apart or unraveling, but they still look great and gauzy. Of course finding an actual pattern for such a thing seems nigh on impossible. I settled on something close enough and I figure I'll make it up mostly as written and muck with it if need be.

My improvisation skills are not as good with knitting as they are with tatting, just a product of practice, but I'm hoping that this at least turns out wearable. If not, it should be terribly easy to unravel and start over with whatever I have learned from the failure. Of course given that it's suppose to be a sweater, it wasn't anywhere near done yesterday. If I had finished it in one day, I might've felt I had a new calling with speed knitting. Hopefully I'll at least get far enough today to know whether I'm barking up the wrong tree with the pattern.

As usual, I'll still be not so patiently waiting for something interesting to happen in my shop, or some magic light bulb moment to pull me back to the lace. Until then though at least I'm staying busy.TotusMelhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-12950841622333428432015-10-07T04:49:00.001-07:002015-10-07T04:49:09.448-07:00SlippersSo since Monday I spent the day knitting, I opted to find something to finish up the yarn leftover from the dragon cowl. I settled on some crochet slippers since my feet were cold for the first time this year. I got the pattern on Ravelry, where I am finally posting a few things. I picked the Seaspray slippers because they looked simple, but they still had an interesting design.

I was just using up the Caron simply soft yarn I had on hand and unfortunately the yarn did not make for comfy slippers. well that's not entirely true. They were perfectly comfortable to wear while lounging on the couch, but walking in them on my tile floors was actually painful as the stitches pushed into my feet. So I suppose it was sort of a wasted day. I was however forced to learn a new technique to make them, the magic ring. I'd never heard of it before, but after figuring it out, it's almost the same thing as the center ring in Armenian lace only with a crochet hook instead of a needle. I guess as long as I learned something, the day was productive.

Now I am again forced to find a new project unless I'm sent some orders in the shop in the next couple of hours. Yeah, I'm not counting on that either. I'll come up with something to make. It's just too bad my family doesn't like knit, crochet, tatted, or other fiber art gifts, then I'd have a purpose.TotusMelhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-13073519817920857432015-10-06T04:55:00.000-07:002015-10-06T04:55:28.163-07:00Dragon Wing

The battle for my idle hands was won by a knitting pattern I had seen fly across my twitter dashboard a few days ago. It's call a Dragon Wing Cowl and I thought it looked ever so interesting. Luckily I had plenty of plain black yarn on hand in the right thickness, so I was ready to go. It started out with a hell of a lot of garter stitch. I hate the look of garter stitch, but I trusted the pattern and knitted all throughout the morning of schooling. The rows got longer and longer and I was worried that I wouldn't finish it in one day. I really wanted to see the next step, because it's the reason I started on this boring garter stitch mass.

I kept at it and after an incredibly long day of schooling, there was an essay involved, I got to the next step. I dropped rows of stitches. It was painful to do, but kind of fun as well. They are dropped all the way to the beginning of the piece for the next step which is the one I was really waiting for.

You pick up all the dropped stitches and reknit them in bundles. Doesn't it look neat. I used a crochet hook and the process was fiddly as hell, but I was determined to finish my idle hands project in one day. I was actually still doing the braided spines while I was cooking dinner. I finished the piece right after we finished eating, a glass of wine in hand.

Now there was some talk of blocking in the pattern, but I never block anything, so this is what it looks like all done. I didn't have any buttons on hand to finish it properly, so I dug about my hoard of supplies and decided to use some jewelry toggle bars instead. I did sew them on in a way that will help with their removal should I acquire proper buttons in the future, but honestly I think it looks fine and it cost me nothing to make since I had everything already, just a day's worth of idle, project hungry hands.

The pattern is available free from Jessie At Home, if anyone
else is interested in taking a knitting day.

Now I just need to figure out what to do with my hands today. Here's hoping it's something interesting at least.

TotusMelhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-68957757071934905802015-10-05T04:48:00.000-07:002015-10-05T04:48:13.838-07:00Done

I realized that on Friday I was talking about the design I was making up for the latest Armenian lace doily, but none of the pictures showed it yet at all. So this is what I started with on Friday. You can finally see here what I was talking about when I referred to a stripe beginning to form. It's not as distinct as I was hoping it would be, but I think more rounds and it would eventually become a nice spiral stripe. I however, was not interested in working on the design that long.

After a few more rounds I decided to come up with some unique edging design. There were a few patterns in the book with pointed edges, but I knew the points were all worked individually and then the thread was tied and cut and honestly I was looking to complete this piece with a minimum of fuss. I still wanted it to look interesting though. So after doing a little math to confirm it would work I made these small points that I then worked down the side of to start the next one. So it's worked back and forth over a handful of loops and then down the side giving it a rounded look. I think it also managed to enhance the stripe a bit as well.

 I finished it early in the evening yesterday. It still needs to be
washed and pressed. but I'm fairly satisfied with what I managed to come up with to finish the piece after earlier math had failed me. It ended up being about 9.5 inches across which means this one is small enough to put in a nice 10 inch square frame. You know, should I choose to go that route. This one has taught me that I need to be more mindful of the math, but when I'm not, I can in fact make stuff up as I go and it's not a complete disaster. What's up for me next to keep my hands from idleness, I don't know. I also managed to make 5 pairs of tatted cat ear headbands over the weekend, so I've exhausted my current tatting projects as well. As always I'll just hope for inspiration, sales, or both to keep me going.TotusMelhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-65246325716853714982015-10-02T04:55:00.000-07:002015-10-02T04:56:09.156-07:00Off BookI took a good hard look at the doily yesterday morning and then simply abandoned the pattern. I stated that I had done so because of math and that is truly the reason. I just could not make the medallion round work evenly as it was and I didn't want to be done with it as it was either. All that being said, I had no plan in mind at all. I started here with large loops over the basket stitch and followed that with a few rounds of small loops.

I know that I didn't want to do too many more rounds of just the small rings, but I also had no idea what to do next. This is where I decided to just really make things up. I am completely off book now, of course the last picture here just shows the beginning of it.

I am seriously just guessing with these new rounds. I think this should create a diagonal stripe, but it's too soon to tell if I guessed wrong. There are no patterns in the book exactly like it, though the diamonds were made using a similar technique, so I should be good here, I hope. I guess I'll just keep on like this and hope that it looks good after a few more rounds. Then it'll be time to pick a new design. Here's hoping I come up with something good. And while I'm spending some time on hoping. Here's hoping sales in the shop pick up soon, that I get all the Armenian lace pieces photographed and listed, and that I have a brilliant idea for something tatted to make. All those would be great, thanks.

TotusMelhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-25888718546584360862015-10-01T04:48:00.002-07:002015-10-01T04:48:59.618-07:00So Many KnotsI started in on the doily first thing in the morning, even before we started schooling for the day. I was determined to at least get to the next section of the pattern. This is the first round after the 20 small loops. It was the beginning of a section of basket stitch. Since I don't really have any final count of how many loops there ought to be at the end of the small loops, I was just lucky that they were just right for this next round.

This is during the basket stitch. It was going much faster with the larger loops of this section. I know that you don't need all these in progress pictures, but since I did little else during the day, they fill up the space nicely, don't you think?

This was the end of the main portion of the lace.
The rest of the piece is suppose to be done in small medallions attached around this. You know how I mentioned that I didn't know how many small loops I was suppose to have at the end of that section? Here's where that information shows how important it would have been. You see I'm suppose to have 78 small loops on the out side in order to attach the proper number of medallions. Guess what? I only have 58. Not only is that far too few, but it's not divisible by the right number to adjust the pattern properly either. I went ahead and started on a medallion, but I think what I may end up doing it just designing a few more rounds myself to get the doily to a nice size and and call it a day. Well, it will probably still take many days to finish, but you get the point.

Before I go though, one of the folks over on my Facebook page posted a link to the first in a series of YouTube videos in English on Armenian lace. I think I might have seem someone else mention this somewhere before, but since it was posted there, I though I'd share it here too, for anyone else interested in torturing themselves with thousands of tiny knots. The video is here. I've only watched a few seconds of it, so I can't speak for how good it is, but what I did see was promising. Just in case it wasn't clear, that torturing comment was hyperbole, I find all these knots quite enjoyable to create.TotusMelhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-27272986050270408352015-09-30T04:39:00.002-07:002015-09-30T04:39:27.673-07:00FlatnessYep, another day, another few rounds on the Armenian lace doily. I thought I had an idea for something else halfway through the day, but as it turns out, I was very wrong. Well, no, I had an idea, it just wasn't a very good one, so let's not talk about it, okay?

This is where I started off with the doily in the morning. It was at about row 11 of the 20...I think. I even worked on it a bit while I was schooling the kids, because I thought if I kept at it all day I might actually finish this section. I was of course, wrong again.

This is where I ended the day with the doily. I think that I'm on row 19 now. I know, so close. I guess that means that I am certain to get to the next section of the design today. That is unless I get another idea. Hopefully this time it will be an executable one, instead of the nonsense of an idea I had yesterday. Or better yet, I could get a sale in the shop and need to get to tatting something that has a home instead of knotting a doily that really has no purpose in life except to keep my hands busy during the day. Luckily, it's pretty, so there's that anyway. Oh, and you can see that it's finally completely flat. Yep, that's my takeaway from an entire day of knotting, flatness.

TotusMelhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-90589049108733642652015-09-29T04:54:00.002-07:002015-09-29T04:54:39.037-07:00Round and RoundRound and round I go, knotting forever. Well actually, I didn't even really get around to lace making until well into the afternoon. The oldest child had her first lab with the microscope. She was looking at creek water samples for signs of life. Of course she found some and and they were both entranced. The spent a great deal of time after schooling was over looking at the little microscopic creatures and taking pictures through the lens. I however, too pictures of lace. The first picture here is about a round or two into the day. There's a distinct warp to the piece still, though I think it's already abating.

At this point I was 7 rows into a 20 row section of small loops. No, of course I'm not finished with those yet. I think I ended the day on round 10 or 11, it's kind of hard to keep track. It is however definitely flattening out a bit. In fact I've started thinking on how I am to increase the loops soon. The pattern gives no further instruction on the matter. In fact the whole book assumes that you fully understand how to increase a round, as well as begin a new round without any further instruction. It's a good thing I can think on my feet. Well, really I'm generally sitting, but I can figure things out pretty well. They may be my own unique solutions, but if they work, they work.

This is the last lace picture of the day. Like I said, it seems to be flattening a bit, though I am having trouble feeling like I accomplished anything as it grows so slowly. I guess that's why I take pictures so I can see them here next to each other and know I accomplished, what, a half an inch maybe. I am getting lots of practice working from left to right and right to left as I turn the doily around occasionally to combat the tedium of the same stitch so long. Good day's work. I'll be at it again today and I don't have any illusions that I'll get past these 20 rows, but maybe tomorrow. I'll leave you with a picture of the sky last night. The camera in my new phone seems to take pretty good pictures though I haven't really tested it much yet. I guess that means you can expect more pictures of anything for a bit.

TotusMelhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-53670760060865264602015-09-28T04:51:00.001-07:002015-09-28T04:51:42.332-07:00DoilyI didn't come up with something interesting to make for the shop, but of course I couldn't just not make anything, so I started yet another Armenian lace doily. It should serve as a nice project that I can set down if ever I get something else that needs doing. This one interested me partly because it's called a Spiderweb doily and partly because the beginning starts with a simple crochet chain. While it was a bit fiddly to work into the thin crochet chain, it was orders of magnitude easier than the other method described in the book, working over a small folded piece of thread. That my friends, has proved impossible for me to accomplish.

I worked on this all weekend, when I had sitting time, but we were out and about quite a bit. We also ended up using the weekend to acquire a new desk for the oldest child since she had wholly outgrown the children's desk that she's had for years. That entailed cleaning off the old desk, assembling the new one and the new chair and reassembling the computer, so as you can imagine, it was a busy building day. I actually adore putting together furniture. No, really, I do. I reminds me of when I worked backstage at the theater throughout high school and college. In fact it's probably why I enjoy making lace so much. There is just a sense of satisfaction when you finish creating something with your hands, but I digress.

I took plenty of photos over the weekend of the doily progress, so that's what I'll leave you with this morning. I did sell a tatted mask over the weekend, but as it turns out, I had two of them made, so there was no immediate need for me to get tatting another. I might so so anyway, just to change things, up if nothing else comes up, but I am enjoying the doily creation either way. At least it gives me something to take pictures of to liven up the dull blog post. So here's to a productive day of lace making and picture taking.

TotusMelhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-49615988231960920702015-09-25T05:01:00.000-07:002015-09-25T05:01:14.843-07:00Tiny Bags

I started yesterday trying to create a pouch shape in Armenian lace. I wasn't failing too badly, but it definitely wasn't an overwhelming success either. There was a lot of guesswork and I was starting to worry about how I was going to attach the tatting at the end of the knot work. I was also having questions about the best way to add the tassel in the end as well. I went round and round anyway.

It was about this time that I got a single comment on yesterday's post suggesting that I simply make two of them and stitch them together(Thanks MadTatter80). Sure, I had thought of that before, but figured it would look bad done that way. I suppose the comment came at just the right time. I was certainly doubting the success of my current attempt, so I figured, why not give it a go.

It seems to have worked out better that I thought it would, though it definitely looks different than the one from yesterday, mostly because the tatting goes all the way around. After this picture I did get a long crochet cord made up and wove it though the top, so that it could be gathered on top. It looks much better when it's not, but either way it's done. I half think I would actually make a réticule handbag, but that would be a fair bit more work, so maybe when I've run out of things to make. Though, yes that's sort of true right now. Oh, who knows what I'll get up to when my hands get itchy to make something later today.
TotusMelhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-69858290230547844992015-09-24T04:42:00.002-07:002015-09-24T04:42:35.418-07:00Mixed LaceI was entirely rudderless yesterday after schooling. I didn't even do any reading. I just sat about wondering what I should be doing. This resulted in my playing with a technique I ran across online that I cannot at the moment remember the name of, to no particular end. All I have to show for that is this strip of zigzag nonsense that did get longer than this before I found something more productive to do. Well, I could have looked up the technique again and actually learned how to do something with it, but I was too lazy for that intelligent move apparently.

I did eventually get onto something more creative and useful. I tatted up this small bit in cotton and then started the Armenian lace from it. I had intended it to become a bracelet, but that lazy bug bit again and I worked it to a point. Then I used the leftover thread at the end to work the tassel directly on it. Of course since I've been going metal free with my pieces lately, I just went ahead and crocheted a cord to hang it on. I couldn't decided if I should do one from each corner or from the center. In the end I opted to just weave it through the tatting itself.

I was told that it looks like it could be a little bag and I'm tempted now to try and see if I can work a similar shape in the round. I'm not sure I have developed enough skill for that yet, but I've run so low on creative juices lately that maybe I should just take ideas where I can. Of course I should also try to get up the energy to get all these recent pieces listed in the shop too. The source of that reluctance is more likely a lack of sales that inspires my favorite mood of 'why bother, nobody cares' apathy. It'll pass, I just have to wait it out and then maybe it'll be a nice big shop update. Only time will tell.TotusMelhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-85058957522926857832015-09-23T04:38:00.002-07:002015-09-23T04:38:19.575-07:00ThreeSo I wear tested this necklace all morning fully expecting it to misbehave. I expected the clasp portion to work it's way to the front, or the pendant to curl up on itself as the day wore on. Neither of those things happened though. I even thought that perhaps the linen would prove scratchy or annoying to wear. In fact the only thing I did notice, was that I kept forgetting I was wearing it at all because it's so light.

It didn't take long for me to go ahead an work on necklaces in the other two shades of linen I have on hand, a dark gray and black. They were both done very soon after schooling was. Now I just need to get off my arse and get them as well as the last collar necklace photographed and in my shop. It may be awhile though. I find myself less eager to get photographs taken as I'm getting a bit older. Or perhaps it's just that there are so many pictures of me in my shop much younger since I started it nearly a decade ago. I just don't look like I used to and it's obvious next to those younger pictures. Oh well, there's nothing for it.

I'm a little stalled out on ideas at the moment. I'm going to hope something interesting happens to spur me on, so I don't waste the day with idle hands. Nothing good ever comes from that.

TotusMelhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-35127112700199272862015-09-22T04:47:00.002-07:002015-09-22T04:47:51.386-07:00FourI started out yesterday with an order in the shop. It was a bracelet I haven't made too many of, so I started to remake the piece straight away so I could use the existing one as a template before I got it in the post to its new owner. It's not a difficult one, but it another I based on a vintage pattern. I always change them a bit, so I can't really look back to the original pattern to make it. I simply wouldn't remember what stitch changes I made that make the piece lay the way I liked it, or whatever weird impulse I had the first time around. I managed to get if finished while I schooled the kids, so I could get the order shipped out in a timely manner.

Once that was done it was back to Armenian lace. I set aside the new threads to go back the medallion design I was working on in linen. I thought I had it down the last time, but I think this go is definitely my favorite so far. In fact I liked it so much I turned it into a necklace as soon as I was finished with it. I was just going to turn it into a pendant with a jump ring, but somehow hanging this from a ribbon doesn't work for me so I thought up a new method that I still have to wear test.

I crocheted a simple chain for it and instead of using metal at all, I simply strung the pendant onto it. Then I added the closure. The only issue I'm really worried about, is that there is so little weight here that it may not hang well. I am amused at how I managed to add a small bit of four different fiber techniques in this one necklace though. There's the Armenian lace pendant, the crochet cord, the ends are tatted rings and the closure is a macrame slide clasp. Mind you they're not mixed as interestingly as I'd like them to be one day, but it's a start.

After wearing this for a while, I'll know whether it will work or not and if it does, I'll add it to the growing pile of pieces that need to get into the shop. If it doesn't I might just have to think on how best to add weight to it, most like a bead of some sort, maybe wood or glass, since I like the idea of keeping it a natural, no metal piece. Not that that has been a useful selling point for me so far, but it could one day. Here's hoping for more inspiration today.TotusMelhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-15373898142817915302015-09-21T04:49:00.000-07:002015-09-21T04:49:51.853-07:00New ThreadWell, let's see, on Friday I did manage to work up a nice small medallion all by myself in linen. I still haven't gone any further with the design, except to make it a second and third time to make sure I have got it down. I haven't written it down of course, but this time it's not because I'm lazy, it's because I really have no idea the proper way to notate Armenian lace. I've only read the the one book on it, from the 20's, so I've no clue how they would write this out modernly. I guess that's my next research topic.

The rest of my weekend was super packed with family outings. On Saturday we headed to opening weekend of the Northern California Renaissance Faire. It's about an hour and a half from us, but we love going. The kids did some crafts, we shopped a bit and had toad in a hole for lunch. We also managed to get terribly exhausted, but the people watching alone is worth it.

On Sunday it was errand running, but out of town. I used the opportunity to pick up some alternative thread types to try out with the Armenian lace. I got a small spool of a thick polyester thread, and a thinner, because it's all the had, spool of viscose (rayon). It wasn't the best thickness on the viscose, but it was just a chain fabric store, so I really didn't expect much. I'm hoping that working with these threads will at least give me an idea of how it works up in that material, so I know what would be best to order if I ever have the extra cash to justify it anyway. This is my first go with both, but as I had just a little time, this is all I managed. The polyester is on the right and the viscose on the left. While the size difference is obvious, I'm sill not decided on the work-ability . They both seem to love knotting, maybe too much and unpicking is more of a struggle, but it's really too soon to make a conclusion.

So I guess I'll be playing with the new thread for a while to see how they play. Hopefully I'll have some real conclusions for you before the week is out.TotusMelhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-86696427506970537512015-09-18T04:39:00.002-07:002015-09-18T04:39:29.755-07:00MedallionsSchooling ran long yesterday, though really the days preceding it were just unusually short. The point is I didn't get round to making anything until a couple of hours after lunch. I started with a medallion from the book and after about the point in this photograph, I put it aside. It because very clear that should I continue, it was going to be far too large to be useful as a wearable. I had also made a a few adjustments in the pattern to allow for the thicker thread, but they turned out to not be enough compensation at all.

I didn't want to abandon the medallion idea altogether, so I grabbed some thin linen thread and made it up as I went. This is what I came up with, though when I try again, I'll need to do something other than those long bare threads, at least on the outside as I can't imagine that wearing well. I did also determine that aside from a few thicker spots in the linen, it really likes the Armenian lace. The knots stay quite well and it doesn't get strained as much as it does being pulled through stitches in needle tatting.

So I guess today I'll play with more small medallion ideas until I come up with something I can turn into a pendant or earrings. Maybe even join some together to form a bracelet. In that case, the outer edge of this one is right out, but I'm sure I can come up with something before the weekend is out.TotusMelhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-53461370765475815712015-09-17T04:37:00.001-07:002015-09-17T04:37:57.329-07:00Back to Square OneI was creatively quite fickle yesterday. Not only did I not get around to listing the newest necklace, I also didn't get anything else of significance done. I spent a lot of time online searching for any more vintage Armenian lace books and I got nothing. The only one I ran across turns out to be the same one I have republished by Lacis years later. I don't want to buy any new books partly because I like using older ones to learn from and partly because I really ought not spend any money when I'm making so very little.

So with the book search a bust, I went back to the one I had and tried out a few techniques I hadn't done very well with on the first go. I figured after all the practice I've had, they should be easier now. Luckily I was at least right about that. This is the lover's knot stitch and it beat me up the first time I tried it. I still have a few issues, but I know what they are now and it's just a matter of making the loops longer. I tried a few others as well as making my own up with mixed results. In the end I decided to try a medallion and see if I can morph it into something wearable.

I'll work on the medallion idea today and if I remember, I'll get that necklace in the shop. I still haven't found a home for any of the Armenian lace, save for the small pine cone tassel pendants. I'm hoping with Fall upon us, holiday shopping will begin soon and somebody out there will think they would make lovely gifts. Fingers crossed.TotusMelhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-9018073428741824622015-09-16T04:37:00.001-07:002015-09-16T04:37:24.551-07:00Yes, and No

I think I spent most of the day working on the newest Armenian lace choker design. It's another pattern idea culled from the creation of the doily. Of course as with seemingly everything else I do, I mucked with it until it was the way I liked it. I wanted to create enough repeats of the diamond shapes to give it a nice woven feel, I guess.

The big question came as I was nearing what I knew needed to be the end. I could decide if I should keep it straight across or take the diamond points down. I almost didn't do the point as I had to start new thread at each point. I generally dislike anything I can't do all the way across in one pass, but I figured, nothing ventured, nothing gained, right?

So here's the final piece prior to any pressing. While I like the way it turned out, I'm fairly certain that this is not the design to use the silk thread on. The larger thread spaces are a bit slide-y even with the cotton. I can imagine in the silk, it just wouldn't stay put anywhere. I'll still get this one put in the shop at some point, maybe even today, but I still have to figure out the best use of the silk. Right now, I'm thinking to just go with the pine cone pattern because I like making it, but I've already got two of those in the shop and I'm not sure making one in silk is going to make a huge difference in how it's viewed. Maybe it's onto another prototype experiment. I'm sure I can come up with yet another design...well, I hope I can.TotusMelhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-20418920244912022372015-09-15T04:37:00.000-07:002015-09-15T04:37:10.478-07:00Listed

Right after schooling yesterday I got the new rings listed. They're all in one listing with the ability to choose between the two sizes that I can make, your choice of color, and if you want crystals or not. I even had the option of making the crystal ones cost just a little bit more in the same listing. Now I just wait and hope that I sell a few of them. They really are very comfortable, would make a great gift and I'm fairly certain that I'm keeping a black one for myself.

After that it was back to the Armenian lace. I had another stitch design that I wanted to try out before I busted out with the silk thread. The last thing I want to do is waste good thread on a bad idea. It's turning out okay so far, but I haven't even gotten to a repeat of the design yet and I don't know if maybe another repeat makes the piece too large. There's really nothing for it, but to try and make it and see what happens.

I anticipate that working on this necklace should take up most of my afternoon. It's now become my normal to stitch while reading, so I've also managed to read several books recently. It makes me feel like I'm not actually wasting any time, even though I probably am by many people's standards. Oh well, off to the day then.TotusMelhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-52488261352549080742015-09-14T05:50:00.000-07:002015-09-14T05:50:16.567-07:00RingsFriday I did get the new Armenian lace necklace up in my etsy shop. Honestly after that I was a bit adrift for the rest of the day. I did a search through my thread and ran across a spool of black silk thread. I didn't really enjoy tatting with it, but I thought I might try Armenian lace with it, but I couldn't decided on a pattern and I didn't want to waste the silk experimenting, so I started another cord in cotton for the pattern I was going to try. I figure cotton can be the dry run and if it works, I'll try it in silk.

I was ready to keep going with that, but I woke up to a sale on Saturday morning and that gave me something to tat up instead. It was just a tatted ring, so it was made in a flash, but making it actually gave me an idea for a new one. I first made it up in the Lizbeth twirlz thread there on my index finger. I then wore it about on our morning errands and even though doing laundry when we got back. I was initially concerned that the points of the diamond shape would misbehave when worn. That wasn't the case, so I made another in black as well.

The rest of the weekend I kept making more in different colors with the intention of listing them in my shop after schooling is wrapped today. Then yesterday afternoon I decided to also experiment with some sparkles. I sewed on some swarovski crystals to some of the rings to see what it would look like and I honestly have mixed feeling about the results. I don't think it looks bad at all, I just like the plain lace better. That being said, I will likely list both versions of the ring along with color and size options just like my other tatted rings. I know it's not the most original design, but it's new and so I'm happy with my creative weekend.

Once they're listed, I'll get back to the Armenian lace experiment and try to keep busy until the next sale or idea comes along.TotusMelhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-5440399287875833842015-09-11T04:42:00.000-07:002015-09-11T04:42:02.820-07:00I BleedI definitely wanted to try doing the Armenian lace from left to right after seeing it done in the videos I watched. That gave me a reason to make something else and I remembered that I wanted to try a certain design I hadn't tried out yet. That gave me a project for the day. I also inquired if anyone else knew if one direction or the other was proper, but there was no definitive answer. I figured if nothing else I could now work back and forth without turning the lace. I did learn that even though there appears to be fewer thread movements working left to right, I still worked right to left faster and with greater consistency. Of course I suppose that will happen with weeks of practice once direction. I also shared that I bleed far more often with this than I ever did with tatting, though I manage to occasionally injure myself that was as well. I am relentlessly rough on my hands.

I did get this necklace finished and I managed to get decent at working both directions. I think I'll try to get this in the shop today along with the basket stitch choker that is still waiting for a spot in the shop.

Other than that I have no lace plans for the weekend. Again I hope for a bit of inspiration or a sale in the shop to get me working again. The heat lately has been a bit oppressive around here and it's hard to want to do anything at all. It's a battle between my laziness and my hands' need to keep from being idle. I'm sure my hands will win, they always do, but it's a long, hard fought battle.TotusMelhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-20141756805148722462015-09-10T04:59:00.001-07:002015-09-10T04:59:23.639-07:00NopeWith everything done, my free time yesterday was excruciating. Okay, that might be a bit hyperbolic. I had no projects, no ideas, no sales, and when I tried to read to fill the time, I finished the book. This left me with little to do at all.

I did remember that I had recently been shown a video of someone doing Turkish oya, so I watched it again and attempted to mimic the incredible fast video where her hands were always going out of frame. I did not do so well. I did learn something interesting though. The Armenian Lace book I used to learn was very insistent about working from right to left, but it seems all the videos I skimmed though, they work left to right. They also seem to wind the thread twice rather than once, but not all of them. I don't know whether this is a regional difference from Armenia to Turkey, or an evolution of the form, since that book is from the 20's. I certainly didn't accomplish anything yesterday, but maybe I learned a little something. I guess I'll try working the other direction today and see how I do. I've got nothing else planned.

Before I go though, I have a confession. I got an email last night asking for a pattern to a bracelet. I was on my phone and I meant to mark the message as unread so I could answer it this morning. Instead I deleted it and I cannot find it. It's not in the trash, the deleted messages, nor is it at either of my computers or in the online email archives. How I managed to so thoroughly erase something I don't know. I think the name on the email might have been Amanda, but that's all I've got. So if that's you, sorry, I'm not ignoring you and if you could email again I can apologize, but I'm afraid I don't have the pattern written up for the bracelet you asked about. I'm also pretty sure I just wrote this while paragraph in vain, but it was worth a shot.TotusMelhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-353392982502947382015-09-09T04:48:00.001-07:002015-09-09T04:48:49.868-07:00ListedI was so happy yesterday to wake up to a sale. Not only did I sell something, which is wonderful, but I also had something that needed to be tatted up for the shop. Lately I need an excuse to get tatting as the Armenian lace has taken over the creative corner of my brain. This is a necklace that I call flower garland. It's a slightly modified version of a classic flower edging pattern. I've made a lot of necklaces out of vintage and antique edging patterns, but I rarely leave the them as written. I can't seem to help, but muck about with stitch counts and joins until they lay just the way I want them to.

I got some of that made before schooling and honestly some during. Both the kids had online live sessions to attend at the same time and that gave me a spell to myself, though it didn't shorten the school day a bit. After lunch I still had laundry to do, a kitchen to tidy, and it seems a dozen other small tasks before I could sit down again. I even had to remind myself to rush about and get the Armenian lace necklace photographed and listed. This is it worn loose on the neck. Turns out it lays well whether it's tight like a choker or loose like this. It's also incredibly light and comfortable. It is up in the shop now, but I'm still not one hundred percent confident in the price I chose. I feel like it should be more, but with no beads or crystals or fancy embellishments, I have a hard time believing that people with see that kind of value in it regardless of the sheer amount of time it took to construct.

Well that leaves me with today's plans. I don't have many. I don't want to start another Armenian lace piece until I sell one or at least get an idea of what color or design might sell at some point. I do have a pair of earrings that will need to be tatted today, but that shouldn't take me more than an hour tops. So here's hoping for a sale or inspiration to keep me making today.TotusMelhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-49831383277401789242015-09-08T04:36:00.002-07:002015-09-08T04:36:54.267-07:00Done!We had the day off from schooling, so I started my day working on the Armenian knotted lace necklace. I worked a row, then about halfway through the next one I ran into a mistake on the row before. I stared at it for a while trying to decide whether I could make due or if it was a fatal error that must be removed. As you probably guessed from the picture, it was deemed fatal and I had to cut out the largest swath of knotted lace to date. It really wasn't too much, just that row and a half, back to the mistake, but it was delicate work cutting each knot without disturbing the thread they were knotted over.

After working back to about the point I removed, we ran some errands. Those errands resulted in working on our front door for an hour and then finally settling on a haphazard fix when none of of the elegant, hide-able solutions would work like we wanted. Oh, and I managed to hurt myself repeatedly. Then I baked a cake. It was solely because we acquired this new cake pan in the Halloween section of Target. There were also cupcakes, because the cake pan won't hold a whole box of cake mix. We would eventually eat most of this cake and I really regretted that for most of the evening. All of this was before I was able to sit down again and work on the necklace again.

I did, however, finish the necklace despite all the household distractions. It's bigger than I anticipated and I did continue to make it up as I went with bouts of math to insure that I wouldn't mess it up too badly in the end. It's shape is a bit flatter than I hoped. Up to now all the chokers I've done have held their circle shape well, but as this one grew it lost it a bit. It should still wear fine, but lower on the neck that the others. Of course I haven't given it much test wearing yet. Hopefully today's schooling will go well and I'll be able to get this and the last necklace before this one listed in the shop. Of course that presupposes that I can come up with an appropriate price point for the necklace that took nearly four days to make, but is just simply made of knots in thread. Yeah, I'm stumped too. Maybe it'll just come to me during the day.TotusMelhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-6751285215938850138.post-59520830045564347582015-09-07T04:41:00.000-07:002015-09-07T04:41:11.764-07:00IntricateI spent much of my sitting time during the weekend working on the ecru necklace. I knew I wanted it to be big, to really show off the finer thread, but I didn't have a plan for the design at all. This is quite literally made up as I went. This picture was taken on Saturday as I was working on rows of basket stitch. There wasn't much math needed for that section, though the section before was based on part of the doily I made and that needed math. It also needed me to change some things to make it work out okay. I'm just glad I've learned enough already to make design choices and changes that work.

This picture was taken late yesterday evening after working on the necklace for another whole day. Well, most of the day anyway, we did have plenty of family time before I sat down to it. Oh, and I spent quite some time trying to solve a front door lock problem, because I'm handy like that. Once I did get to work though, I added another couple of rows of basket stitch before deciding how I wanted to finish the piece. I'm opting for a bit of a scallop edge that I had to stop and math out too.

Since today is a holiday for all of us, I think I should have time to finish it. I'm now kind of dreading pricing it for the shop though. It's taken a long time and it's quite intricate, but I do not want to overprice it. Any advice on that point would be welcome. I won't even try to get it listed today even if I finish it though. I'll just try and decide what I want to make next.TotusMelhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com


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Rated 4.4 out of 5 by 222 reviewers.
Rated 5 out of 5 by JND550 Hotel Staff all highly trained and efficient Very brief 2 night stay. Check in staff extremely welcoming and concierge desk incredibly efficient. Room extremely comfortable with all amenities. Delicious breakfast in a beautiful dining room and staff were delightfully happy. September 22, 2015
Rated 4 out of 5 by JRKeb Perfect Location in a Beautiful and Historic Hotel We stayed here on two different occasions in a two week period in July/August. Our opinion of the hotel didn't change from one stay to the other. Would have given 5 stars except for a few misses. This is a very beautiful hotel and the staff is generally very good. We got a nice room, but not a significant upgrade on our first stay (hotel nearly fully booked), and did receive an upgrade to a suite (using our own suite upgrades) on our second stay. The hotel is very busy with tours coming in frequently. The location is fabulous, so good that on that basis alone, I can recommend it. It is within walking distance of all important museums, plazas, gardens and even the main railway station. The breakfast buffet under the rotunda is really wonderful - especially as a Platinum perk! The misses I mentioned involve the bar and the concierge team. The bar is iconic - a beautiful environment. Unfortunately, on both stays, the service was not good: the first time the wrong drinks were delivered, and the second time we had to wait a very long time before anyone even recognized we were there (and the bar was not crowded). We were just on the point of leaving when someone came to take our order. The other "miss" involved the concierge team. There are two windows with concierge present at one or both most of the time. They are usually busy, so a wait is generally necessary. On no occasion was there eye contact or any attempt to acknowledge our presence until we were actually looking into the face of one of them. We did not get the feeling that they actually wanted to help - they answered questions only because it was their job - and unfortunately, gave incorrect information about the opening time of one place (even though we specifically asked for a confirmation of the time we thought was correct). This caused us to walk quite a distance in the heat to no avail. We still will gladly stay here again despite these issues, and would definitely recommend it to others. September 16, 2015
Rated 5 out of 5 by FelipeElHermoso Truly A Palace! What a beautiful, palatial hotel! From the start, the reception staff made us feel welcome. Our spacious room had very comfortable beds (truly heavenly), a premium view on the Neptune Fountain and a wonderful bathroom. The breakfast buffet, served by a first class staff under the magnificent stained glass dome, left nothing to be desired. The hotel location was perfect, in a very safe area near the Parliament, with easy walking distance to the Prado Museum, the Thyssen Museum, and the Royal Botanical Garden. ALL staff members were professional and could not have been more effective in meeting our needs. Gracias a todos! We highly recommend this full-service hotel and would definitely stay here again. August 26, 2015
Rated 5 out of 5 by GPM1 Excellent customer service The entire staff was excellent, the bellmen, front desk, room service and especially the concierge team with Aitor and Alejandro. Everyone went beyond all expectations. I would recommend this hotel to anyone. August 20, 2015
Rated 5 out of 5 by chicago34342 Family weekend in Madrid - perfect! Our family stayed here three nights in between a week in Ibiza and a week in London in August 2015. What a great hotel. Starwood recognition was at the top. I was paying for two rooms on points. They upgraded us to one executive suite with an adjoining single room - so basically a two bedroom, three bath, living room for all of us. Was so nice to come back to each day. Breakfast was also included which was an amazing buffet in an great area. The service and hotel are both five star quality. Location is also very nice. Short walk to the park and museums and just a short walk to plaza Santa Ana (our favorite) and plaza mayor. I highly recommend this hotel to anyone staying in Madrid. August 12, 2015
Rated 2 out of 5 by ncrv GREAT Asian restaurant with great service We finally got our room after 5.00 pm, Reservation were made about 6 months prior, The check in clerk can care less about us been there since 10.00 am. Gold status does not mean anything to this hotel . The hotel manager needs to take SERVICE and CUSTOMER SERVICE lessons from the Asian restaurant management. August 12, 2015
Rated 5 out of 5 by JH2015 Madrid Vacation Great hotel in Prado district with excellent concierge services and palace-like décor. Would definitely consider staying again. August 5, 2015
Rated 5 out of 5 by Carlos2222222 Amazing stay in iconic historical Madrid hotel! We love love this hotel! It is a historical hotel in wonderful location (one of the best in Madrid) Checkin was a breeze. . . .although late at night we had to bring our luggage up the stairs at entrance. .. . Room: We were upgraded to a nice room with city view of the Neptune fountain... . it was a nice room. Even though we faced the street the rooms must be sound proof or something as we didnt hear much noise ..... Amenities: The non-descript facade reveals the beauty inside. .. . the foyer of a grande dame with large beautiful tapesteries adorning the large spacious public spaces. My wife and I loved their color scheme as the careful juxtaposition of lavender with the modern and classic furniture gives a smoothing and regal appearance to the place Service: Great service especially at breakfast and at bar .. . . .the breakfast is amazing! Pros: -Central location near Parque del Retiro and prado museums etc and near central tapas and bars etc -Exquisite luxurious classical and modern sleek public spaces -Friendly helpful staff -Amazing delicious breakfast (SPG amenity) Cons: -Painfully slow elevators. . . .there are some elevators in back to right which most people do not use -multiple stairs near entrance and from lobby to main public areas. . . dont know if handicap accessible but would make a difference if you needed to get around. . . . Everything was just amazing and wonderful for our visit! and would definitely return and would HIGHLY recommend with no reservations! Room Tip: Get room looking to Neptune fountain . . .the rooms are quiet even facing street July 27, 2015

subset: commoncrawl


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Wow KEF that poppy is lovely but what's the prickly stemmed thing growing beside it? Adore the planting combo of last pic
Interrupted in my viewing of this thread so P.S Pdoc and berghill, such lush healthy plants in your gardens, I spied one of those Taxus standi -uppy -thingies in berghill's and what a beautiful tree Pdoc. I could spend all day admiring it
Chicky, your path is gorgeous
Runny, the fresh growth on that stumpy tree is exquisite
David, incredible Buddleia
Mrhursty, your garden vistas and planting would give any designer a run for their money. Stunning! I love the upturned bricks in the path to collect reflections after rain perhaps
Great idea LesleyK maybe with some before and after shots? Can you tell I'm an addict?
Morning all
Homework day for me this morning , that's home-work not house-work, thank goodness
Dove, I hope your resident robins are okay
LesleyK, did you sneak in 50 plants without declaring? Or did I miss the post where you told us what sticky labels ended up back at your house? Last I remember was the anticipated trip to the GC. Since I'm now focused on learning to drive, I will need to get my plant fix from you lot
Been looking into tiredness issues this morning, some how the m word has been mentioned, might need to check my hormone levels
How frustrating MrsG
I love that taxus Yvie, it's a real statement plant, I always admire a big one I trek past on the way to the GC
Bakery shifts finished for another weekend, it's been raining all day off and on but my takings are going through the roof so goodness knows what will happen when it's sunny I already give up my breaks and regularly stay late to ensure my customers get what they ask for
My focus needs to change over the next few weeks, need to start intensive driving lessons so no more sticky labels to distract me, just as well really as I want to see things develop when we finally do get some summer in order to assess those mistakes I can't live with. So far it's an iris in the wrong place and some smaller plants that would look better growing between other plants rather than as a lump
OH is overtired and grumpy so I'll sign off for now. Enjoy your holidays and trips to New York folks
No need to chop them back, but let them drink for 24hrs
Well done chicky lass
Not as big as Monty''s banana tee-hee
Thanks guys, I'm very happy


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MONDAY, May 21 (HealthDay News) -- Adding more weight to concerns about possible long-term dangers of osteoporosis drugs, a new study finds that people who take the drugs, known as bisphosphonates, may be at increased risk for atypical fractures of the thigh bone (femur).
Osteoporosis is a bone-thinning disease that is common in older women. An atypical femoral fracture is an unusual type of break that often occurs spontaneously, without any major leg injury.
In the new study, Swiss researchers looked at 477 patients, aged 50 and older, who were hospitalized with a femoral fracture. Of those patients, 39 had atypical fractures and 438 had a classic fracture (a more common fracture with a typical pattern).
These groups were compared with 200 people without femoral fractures. The findings were published online May 21 in the journal Archives of Internal Medicine.
The investigators found that 82 percent of the patients with atypical fractures had been treated with bisphosphonates, such as Actonel or Fosamax, compared with about 6 percent of the patients with classic fractures.
But compared to patients without fractures, use of bisphosphonates was associated with a 47 percent reduction in the risk of a classic fracture.
The researchers compared duration of bisphosphonate treatment versus no treatment and found that the odds ratio for an atypical fracture versus a classic fracture was 35 to 1 for less than two years of treatment, 46 to 9 for two to five years of treatment, 117 to 1 for five to nine years of treatment, and 175 to 7 for more than nine years of treatment.
"In conclusion, we have demonstrated that the association between bisphosphonate treatment and the occurrence of atypical fractures of the femur is highly likely and that the duration of such treatment significantly correlates with augmented risk," Dr. Raphael Meier and colleagues from University Hospitals of Geneva and Faculty o
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National Post View: With the number of elderly set to double over the next 20 years, this is hardly the time to be promising increases in seniors' benefits
To increase the cost of all employees by 3.8 per cent would be insane. To increase only the cost of those employees who do not already have unaffordable pension plans is not only insane, but reactionary.
Every dollar I lose to the ORPP is a dollar I would have used to pay off my house or build my savings ... with no guarantee my children will ever see it
Wynne suggests Canada's national railway would never have been built under Harper. But she's the one blocking a $12 billion project uniting Alberta and N.B.
The ORPP will merely divert savings from private investment vehicles, which will lead to a greater dependence on government to doll out one's retirement income.
Finance Minister Joe Oliver says the Conservatives 'will not assist the Ontario government' and that includes legislative changes that would allow premiums to be treated like the Canada Pension Plan for tax purposes
Robert Brown: Real pension reform can be done. It just requires some imagination and a few (but important) tweaks to existing pension and income tax laws. Canadians want this.
The Wynne government likes to make it sound like a gift they are giving Ontarians. But the money workers will receive, eventually, is only money the government takes from them, now: it's a forced savings plan, not a redistribution scheme.
Researchers say old age should be defined as having 15 or fewer years left to live, which for the baby boomers means they are middle aged until their 74th year
For many reservists, not all of their military pension counts towards their eventual civil service retirement


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Sex, insanity and bullets combine for one hi-octane action-thriller about a beautiful escaped mental patient who goes on a murderous rampage after her own father puts a bounty on her head. No one is safe as she unleashes her wrath on a number of unsuspecting victims including a nightclub owner, a bartender, a prostitute, a psychic and a stripper. Starring a huge ensemble cast including Dominique Swain, Master P., Tom Sizemore, Danny Trejo, Bai Ling, Ron Jeremy and more, Toxic is an edgy, action-packed thrill ride that is guaranteed to both shock and awe.
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I ordered this movie, and was pleased. It is a good independent film, and it is nice to see many character actors in bigger roles. Read morePublished on March 9, 2012 by Sean Phillip Kinney


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|Reviews for This family is cursed
| Padackllinsy chapter 96 . 8/24
Omg I love this so much! Your characterisation is amazing, you've done such a great job! I really hope you continue it because it's seriously one of my favourite fan fics, thanks for writing it! 3
| TheImpalaLover chapter 16 . 7/1
Wasn't Crowley king of hell after Lucifer died?
| Chloe chapter 96 . 5/31
Dude! You should totally keep writing on this fic! I wanna know what happens to Lara, with her powers, her and Cas' relationship, etc!
| Chloe chapter 44 . 5/30
Dude, this story is SO! FREAKIN! AWESOME! I LOVE IT!
And, is those things happening to Lara because she's turning into her true form, a Epharim?
That's my guess. Just guess I'll have to keep reading! -
| Chloe chapter 6 . 5/29
Dude, I love this story so far, I'll totallymread he whole thing. Thank you for writing it! :)
| Guest chapter 96 . 4/13
I love this story! You have to write moe of it soon.I would like to read what happens next!
| silveralana chapter 96 . 2/27
Such an awesome story! Not sure if you're still working on it, but I'm in love!
| CassDeanSamAngel chapter 6 . 2/2
Guess What I noticed? Castiel was a Seraphim...
| Guest chapter 96 . 1/9
Whyyy did you stop? :(( I was dying to know if Cas and Lara ever could get back to normal..
| bambamchangChang chapter 23 . 12/25/2014
Dude. I love freaking love you. I love this book. Annnnd... YOU NEED TO PUT THIS ON WATTPAD!
| Kaito The Shadow Wrya chapter 10 . 12/10/2014
These facts are wrong. The Seraphim were not slaughtered, hell Zachariah is a Seraphim. And Cas becomes one after god restores him. When Lucifer blows him into chunks? Yeah. He gets a 'promotion' in a sense. Naomi may also be one but thats mere speculation.
If you wrote this story before these facts were released then I'm sorry to have bothered you and you probably get this a lot.
| Guest chapter 14 . 11/27/2014
Funniest chapter so far
| bookwormultimate chapter 96 . 8/14/2014
Amazing story. I can't wait for the next update.
| Guest chapter 96 . 7/20/2014
Oh my gosh! I'm so happy you updated this! I love this story and you do such an amazing job writing it. Please keep updating, this is probably my favorite story on this site.
| huggles1989 chapter 96 . 7/13/2014
Thank u thank u thank u for updating so far so amazing your gonna be an amazing writer


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Fed Raises Payoff From U.S. Industry-Group Picks: Audio
Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Pimm Fox and David Wilson review some of the day's most newsworthy stock moves. Wilson also discusses his chart of the day about Barclays Capital analyst Talley Leger's assertion that U.S. stock investors stand to gain more from making astute picks among industry groups as the Federal Reserve carries out a second round of government-bond buying.
(Source: Bloomberg)
This is a Bloomberg podcast. To download, watch or listen to this report now, click {1 <GO>}. For additional Bloomberg podcasts, see {BPOD <GO>}. -- Bloomberg News +1-212-617-4667 (Tony Dec/Zorovich)
Running time 07:09


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It would take a pretty brave pup to chase down a boar, but even the most cowardly canine can have a taste of excitement with Natural Balance! L.I.D. Limited Ingredient Diets Wild Board & Brown Rice Formula Canned Dog Food is perfect for pet's that have allergies or stomach sensitivities to protein and carbohydrates used in most dog foods. The unique formula is easily digested and packed with fatty acids and nutrients that give your pup healthy skin and a shiny coat.
Key Benefits
- Complex carbohydrates from brown rice provide energy for all-day play
- Limited ingredient diet reduces food-related allergies
- Taurine protects the heart
- Carrageenan guards against canine colds
- Brown rice provides complex carbohydrates and fiber
- Yucca Schidigera extract assists gastrointestinal function and reduces odor in stool
- No corn, soy or wheat
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Wild Boar, Water for Processing, Brown Rice, Canola Oil, Calcium Carbonate, Dicalcium Phosphate, Potassium Chloride, Salt, Guar Gum, Natural Hickory Smoke Flavor, Inulin, Carrageenan, Yucca Schidigera Extract, Zinc Sulfate, Ferrous Sulfate, Vitamin E Supplement, Niacin Supplement, Copper Sulfate, Manganese Sulfate, Thiamine Mononitrate, Ascorbic Acid (Source of Vitamin C), Sodium Selenite, Calcium Pantothenate, Pyridoxine Hydrochloride (Vitamin B6), Vitamin A Supplement, Riboflavin, Calcium Iodate, Folic Acid, Biotin, Vitamin B12 Supplement, Vitamin D3 Supplement
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Rated 4.8 out of 5 by 22 reviewers.
Rated 4 out of 5 by motobbq One of the better Natural Balance canned foods The wild boar and brown rice formula gets 3.5 stars from dogfoodadvisor (dot) com, and the lamb and brown rice gets 4 stars. These are the only two varieties I feed my senior dog. Both list meat as the first ingredient, and have higher crude protein percentages. I have a 13-year old pitbull that was diagnosed with atypical hypothyroid disease about a year ago. He did not respond well to soloxine, the standard med prescribed for the disease. He was eating a high quality kibble, Fromm's senior gold. Upon consulting with a holistic vet, I started feeding home-cooked food plus a high quality canned food. After one month, his full thyroid panel showed normal levels and we actually reduced the dosage of soloxine. Chewy's prices make it economical for me to give him a variety of protein sources. He continues to do well, and both the wild boar and lamb recipes seem to agree with him. March 29, 2015
Rated 5 out of 5 by Jess0Rock I'll keep buying This flavor smells like bacon when you open it. I expect my dog to LOVE it, but she likes it just the same as any other of the flavors that I give her. It's a little dry for a wet food, but not bad. January 27, 2015
Rated 5 out of 5 by eve379 Who would have thought he'd love boar?! My dog is somewhat picky, and at times has a sensitive tummy. This flavor of Natural Balance was at my local pet store as a one time deal. Once I realized this was a flavor he would always eat without hesitation I had to find a retailer who always had it. So far that's been Chewy. They always have it, and cheaper than other online retailers. I even got my order during the week of Christmas quickly! January 1, 2015
Rated 5 out of 5 by Honey1 Yum My old lab has a sensitive stomach. We combine Sweet Potato Chicken dry food with canned Boar. She is doing well. December 26, 2014
Rated 5 out of 5 by Samy Great food! My dog loves this and he's very picky! It smells kind of like bacon and immediately catches his attention. September 26, 2015
Rated 4 out of 5 by Paula dogs would actually eat This is the only flavor of this dog food that my dogs would actually eat. Even it has a smokey smell like they added natural smoke to make it smell. Why would they add an ingredient that was not needed? July 4, 2015
Rated 2 out of 5 by dogpaws Too dry My dogs ate it, but it's much drier that any of the other flavors I have ordered. June 24, 2015
Rated 5 out of 5 by Jester Great flavor and substance! My dogs LOVE this flavor! They lick the bowl clean every time! June 12, 2015


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1 CONSISTENT SPECIFICATION TESTS FOR ORDERED DISCRETE CHOICE MODELS* Juan Mora and Ana I. Moro-Egido** WP-AD 2006-17 Correspondence to: Juan Mora. Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico, Universidad de Alicante, Apartado de Correos 99, 03080 Alicante, Spain. E-mail address: email@example.com. Editor: Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. Primera Edición Julio 2006 Depósito Legal: V-3367-2006 IVIE working papers offer in advance the results of economic research under way in order to encourage a discussion process before sending them to scientific journals for their final publication. * We are grateful to M.D. Collado, C. Muller and F. Peñaranda for helpful comments. Financial support from Spanish MEC (SEJ2005-02829/ECON) and Ivie is gratefully acknowledged. **J. Mora: Universidad de Alicante. A.I. Moro-Egido: Universidad de Granada.
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CONSISTENT SPECIFICATION TESTS FOR ORDERED DISCRETE CHOICE MODELS Juan Mora and Ana I. Moro-Egido ABSTRACT We discuss how to test consistently the specification of an ordered discrete choice model. Two approaches are considered: tests based on conditional moment restrictions and tests based on comparisons between parametric and nonparametric estimations. Following these approaches, various statistics are proposed and their asymptotic properties are discussed. The performance of the statistics is compared by means of simulations. A variant of the standard conditional moment statistic and a generalization of Horowitz-Spokoiny's statistic perform best. Codes JEL: C25, C52, C15. Keywords: Specification Tests, Ordered Discrete Choice Models; Statistical Simulation.
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1. INTRODUCTIONOrdered discrete choice variables often appear in Statistics and Econometricsas a dependent variable. The outcomes of an ordered discrete choice variableY are usually labelled as 0,1,...,J. Given certain explanatory variables X =(X1,...,Xk)0, the researcher is usually interested in analysing whether one (orsome) of the proposed explanatory variables is significant or not, and/or providingaccurate estimates of the conditional probabilities Pr(Y = j | X = x), whichmay be interesting by themselves or required in a first stage to derive a two-stageestimator. Examples of ordered discrete choice dependent variables that have beenused in applied work include: education level attained by individuals (Jiménez andKugler 1987); female labour participation: work full-time, work part-time, not towork (Gustaffson and Stafford 1992); level of demand for a new product or service(Klein and Sherman 1997); and number of children in a family (Calhoun 1989).The parametric model that is most frequently used for an ordered discrete choicevariable arises when one assumes the existence of a latent continuous dependentvariable Y∗for which a linear regression model Y∗= X0β0+ u holds; the non-observed variable Y∗and the observed variable Y are assumed to be related asfollows:Y = jifµ0,j−1≤ Y∗< µ0j, for j = 0,1,...,J,(1)where µ0,−1≡ −∞, µ0,J≡ +∞ and µ00, µ01, ..., µ0,J−1are threshold parameterssuch that µ00≤ µ01≤ ... ≤ µ0,J−1. Assuming independence between u and X, therelationship (1) induces the following specification for Y :Pr(Y = j | X) = F(µ0j− X0β0) − F(µ0,j−1− X0β0),for j = 0,1,...,J,(2)where F(·) is the distribution function of u, usually referred to as the "link func-1
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tion". In a parametric framework, for the sake of identification of the model itis usually assumed that the first threshold parameter µ00is zero; additionallyit is assumed that F(·) is entirely known, the most typical choices being thestandard normal distribution ("ordered probit model") and the logistic distrib-ution ("ordered logit model"). With these assumptions we obtain a full para-meterization of the conditional distribution Y | X = x, with parameter vectorθ0= (β00,µ00)0∈ Θ ⊂ Rk+J−1.The key assumptions in a parametric ordered discrete choice model are thelinearity in the latent regression model, the form of the link function F(·) (specif-ically, its symmetry and its behaviour at the tails) and the independence betweenu and X in the latent regression model (which, in turn, implies that it is ho-moskedastic). Parameter estimates and predicted probabilities based on ordereddiscrete choice models are inconsistent if any of these key assumptions is not met(note that in contrast to standard regression models, heteroskedasticity or mis-specification of the distribution function of u provoke inconsistencies). On theother hand, there exist semiparametric methods (Klein and Sherman 2002) andeven nonparametric methods (Matzkin 1992) that allow for consistent estimationof the conditional probabilities Pr(Y = j | X = x) under much weaker assump-tions; these methods have not been much used in empirical applications due theirtechnical complexity, but they provide a reasonable alternative to purely para-metric methods. Therefore, it is especially important to test the specification ofa parametric ordered discrete choice model, since misspecification errors lead toinconsistent estimation, and it is possible to use alternative consistent techniques.In recent years, various statistics have been proposed to test one (or some) ofthe assumptions of a parametric ordered discrete choice model. However, most2
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of these statistics are constructed to detect only specific departures from the nullhypothesis; for example, Weiss (1997) proposes to test the null of a homoskedasticu versus some parametric heteroskedastic alternatives; Glewwe (1997) proposesto test the null that u is normal versus the alternative that it is a member ofthe Pearson family; Murphy (1996) proposes to test the null that F(·) is logisticversus various alternatives; and Santos Silva (2001) proposes a test statistic to facetwo non-nested parametric specifications. By contrast, we focus here on consistentspecification test statistics, i.e. test statistics that allow us to detect any deviationfrom the null hypothesis "the proposed parametric specification is correct".Roughly speaking, two main approaches may be followed in our context to de-rive consistent specification statistics: tests based on conditional moment (CM)restrictions, which can be constructed following the general methodology describedin Newey (1985), Tauchen (1985) and Andrews (1988); and tests based on compar-isons between parametric and nonparametric estimations, such as those proposedby Andrews (1997), Stute (1997) and Horowitz and Spokoiny (2001), among oth-ers. The objective of this article is to examine how these two approaches canbe applied to test the specification of an ordered discrete choice model, and tocompare the performance of the resulting statistics by means of simulations.Our results highlight the importance of covariance matrix estimation in CMtests. Specifically, standard CM statistics, computed with covariance matrix es-timators based on actual derivatives, usually perform worse than statistics basedon comparisons between parametric and nonparametric estimations. However, ex-ploiting the information about conditional expectations contained in the model,here we derive variants of standard CM statistics that perform much better thanstandard CM statistics; additionally, these variants are easy to compute, since3
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they can be obtained using artificial regressions. On the other hand, our resultssuggest that the methodology proposed in Horowitz and Spokoiny (2001) can beextended successfully to the context of ordered discrete choice models, and theresulting statistic outperforms other statistics that are based on comparisons be-tween parametric and nonparametric methods. However, when we compare theperformace of the generalization of Horowitz-Spokoiny's statistic with the variantof the standard CM statistic that we propose to use, there is no clear-cut answerto the question of which one performs better: the latter outperforms the former insome cases (e.g. with heteroskedastic alternatives) and is computationally muchless demanding, but the additional power that is obtained when using the formerin some other cases (e.g. with non-normal alternatives) may well justify the extracomputing effort.The rest of the paper is organized as follows. In Sections 2 and 3 we describethe test statistics considered here. In Section 4 we report the results of variousMonte Carlo experiments. In Section 5 we present two empirical applications. InSection 6 we conclude. Some technical details are relegated to an Appendix.2. STATISTICS BASED ON CONDITIONAL MOMENTRESTRICTIONSWe assume that independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) observations(Yi,X0i)0are available, where, hereafter, i = 1,...,n. Additionally, the followingnotation will be used: Dji ≡ I(Yi = j), for j = 0,1,...,J , where I(·) is theindicator function; and, given θ ≡ (β0,µ0)0∈ Θ ⊂ Rk+J−1, p0i(θ) ≡ F(−X0pJi(θ) ≡ 1 − F(µJ−1− X0J ≥ 3, pji(θ) ≡ F(µj− X0iβ);iβ); if J ≥ 2, p1i(θ) ≡ F(µ1− X0iβ) − F(−X0iβ); and ifiβ) − F(µj−1− X0iβ), for j = 2,...,J − 1.4
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Let us consider mji(θ) ≡ Dji− pji(θ). Then, it follows from (2) thatE{mji(θ0) | Xi} = 0,for j = 0,1,...,J.(3)This yields J + 1 conditional moment restrictions that must be satisfied.Infact, since the sum of all probabilities adds to one, only J moment conditionsare relevant to construct a test statistic. Specifically, we disregard the momentcondition for j = 0 and consider the random vectorPnthe J × 1 column vector whose j-th component is mji(θ) andbθ is a well-behavedestimator of θ0. To derive an asymptotically valid test statistic, we must analyzethe asymptotic behaviour ofPnTaylor expansion of mji(bθ) − mji(θ0), it follows thatn−1/2mi(bθ) = n−1/2where B0≡ E{Bi(θ0)} and Bi(θ) denotes the J×(k+J−1) matrix whose j-th rowis ∂mji(θ)/∂θ0. Thus, the asymptotic behaviour of n−1/2Pnthe asymptotic behaviour of n1/2(bθ−θ0). In our context, since our null hypothesisspecifies the conditional distribution Yi| Xi= x, the natural way to estimate θ0is maximum likelihood (ML). The log-likelihood of the model can be written asi=1mi(bθ), where mi(θ) isi=1mi(bθ). First of all note that using a first-ordernXi=1nXi=1mi(θ0) + B0× n1/2(bθ − θ0) + op(1),(4)i=1mi(bθ) depends onlnL(θ) =nXi=1JXj=0Djilnpji(θ).We assume that the regularity conditions that ensure that the ML estimator isasymptotically normal are met (see e.g. Amemiya 1985, Chapter 9). In this case,this amounts to saying that the ML estimatorbθ satisfiesn1/2(bθ − θ0) = A−10 × n−1/2nXi=1gi(θ0) + op(1),(5)5
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where gi(θ) ≡PJterm in lnL(θ), and A0is the limiting information matrix, i.e. A0= E{Ai(θ0)},for Ai(θ) ≡ −∂gi(θ)/∂θ0. From (4) and (5) it follows that:⎡⎣where IJis the J × J identity matrix. Hence,Xwherej=1Dji∂ lnpji(θ)/∂θ is the derivative with respect to θ of the i-thn−1/2nXi=1mi(bθ) = [IJ: B0A−10]⎢n−1/2Pni=1mi(θ0)n−1/2Pni=1gi(θ0)⎤⎦+ op(1),⎥n−1/2ni=1mi(bθ)d−→ N (0,V0),(6)V0≡ [IJ: B0A−10]Q0[IJ: B0A−10]0,(7)Q0 ≡ E{Qi(θ0)} and Qi(θ) ≡ (mi(θ)0,gi(θ)0)0(mi(θ)0,gi(θ)0). Finally, to derivea test statistic, a consistent estimator of V0must be proposed. It is worthwhilediscussing in detail how V0 can be estimated, since it is well-known that thefinite-sample performance of statistics based on conditional moment restrictionscrucially depends on this.According to (7), the natural candidate for estimating V0 is Vn,1 ≡ [IJ :BnA−1and An ≡ n−1Pngressions (see e.g. MacKinnon 1992), it is possible to propose an alternativen]Qn [IJ : BnA−1n]0, where Qn ≡ n−1Pni=1Qi(bθ), Bn ≡ n−1Pni=1Bi(bθ)i=1Ai(bθ). However, following the literature on artificial re-estimator of V0 that leads to a computationally simpler statistic.To deriveit, note that E{mli(θ)gi(θ)0} = E{pli∂ lnpli(θ)/∂θ0} = E{−∂mli(θ)/∂θ0}; henceE{mi(θ0)gi(θ0)0} = −B0. Moreover, the information matrix equality ensures thatE{gi(θ0)gi(θ0)0} = A0. Using these equalities, it follows that V0equalsE{mi(θ0)mi(θ0)0} − E{mi(θ0)gi(θ0)0}E{gi(θ0)gi(θ0)0}−1E{gi(θ0)mi(θ0)0}. (8)6
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This leads us to considerVn,2≡ n−1[nXi=1mi(bθ)mi(bθ)0−nXi=1mi(bθ)gi(bθ)0{nXi=1gi(bθ)gi(bθ)0}−1nXi=1gi(bθ)mi(bθ)0].Vn,1and Vn,2are the standard choices for estimating V0. Both are obtainedby simply replacing population moments by sample moments. However, in ourcontext we can do better than that. Observe that our null hypothesis yields thespecification of the conditional distribution Y | X = x. This means that we cancompute the conditional expectation with respect to the independent variablesand then, by the law of iterated expectations, the sample analog of this condi-tional expectation is a consistent estimator of the the population moment; e.g.E{mi(θ0)mi(θ0)0} can be consistently estimated with n−1PnFollowing this approach, expression (8) for V0suggests that we can estimate thismatrix with Vn,3≡ n−1PnVi,3(θ) ≡ EX{mi(θ)mi(θ)0}−EX{mi(θ)gi(θ)0}EX{gi(θ)gi(θ)0}−1EX{gi(θ)mi(θ)0}.i=1EX{mi(bθ)mi(bθ)0}.i=1Vi,3(bθ), whereObserve that the analytical expressions of these conditional expectations are easyto derive. On the other hand, this approach could also be followed using expression(7) rather than (8) as a starting point; but the estimator that is obtained in thisway proves to be again Vn,3.To sum up, we can consider three possible consistent estimates for V0 and,thus, we can derive three possible test statisticsC(M)n,l ≡ n−1{nXi=1mi(bθ)0}{Vn,l}−1{nXi=1mi(bθ)},for l = 1,2,3. From (6), it follows that if specification (2) is correct then C(M)n,ld−→χ2J; hence, given a significance level α, an asymptotically valid critical region is7
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{C(M)facilitate the computation of these three statistics, in Appendix A1 we derive then,l> χ21−α;J}, where χ21−α;Jis the 1 − α quantile of a χ2Jdistribution. Tospecific analytical expressions for Vn,1, Vn,2and Vn,3that are obtained here. As iswell-known in the relevant literature, note that C(M)an artificial regression because, sincePntic C(M)n,2proves to be the explained sum of squares in the artificial regression of an,2can also be computed usingi=1gi(bθ) = (∂ lnL/∂θ)|θ=bθ= 0, the statis-vector of ones on mi(bθ)0and gi(bθ). On the other hand, using a Cholesky decom-position of EX{mi(θ)mi(θ)0}, it is also possible to derive an artificial regressionwhose explained sum of squares coincides with C(M)n,3 (see Appendix A2).Still within the framework of tests based on conditional moment restrictions,more statistics can be derived following the methodology described in Andrews(1988), who proposes increasing the degrees of freedom of the statistic by parti-tioning the support of the regressors. Specifically, let us assume that the supportof Xi is partitioned into G subsets A1,...,AG. Then we can define mjgi(θ) ≡mji(θ)I(Xi ∈ Ag) for j = 1,...,J and g = 1,...,G, and thus consider the JGconditional moment restrictionsE{mji(θ0) | Xi} = 0,for j = 1,...,J, and g = 1,...,G.To derive a test statistic, we consider now the random vectorPnm(P)i(θ) ≡ mi(θ) ⊗Pi, and Piis the G×1 matrix whose g-th row is I(Xi∈ Ag).As before, it follows thati=1m(P)i(bθ), wheren−1/2nXi=1m(P)i(bθ)d−→ N(0,V(P)0 ),(9)where V(P)0≡ [IJG: B(P)(θ0)}, B(P)0 A−10]Q(P)0 [IJG: B(P)0 A−10]0, B(P)0≡ E{B(P)(θ)0,gi(θ)0)0(m(P)i(θ0)}, Q(P)0≡E{Q(P)ii(θ) ≡ Bi(θ) ⊗ Pi and Q(P)i(θ) ≡ (m(P)ii(θ)0,8
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gi(θ)0). Now, the natural candidate forestimating V(P)0is V(P)n,1≡ [IJG: B(P)≡ n−1Pnn A−1n]Q(P)n[IJG: B(P)n A−1n]0, where B(P)n≡ n−1Pni=1B(P)i(bθ) and Q(P)ni=1Q(P)i(bθ).With the same reasoning as before, two other consistent estimators of V(P)0can beproposed: V(P)n,2and V(P)n,3, defined in the same way as Vn,2and Vn,3, respectively,but replacing mi(bθ) by m(P)three different test statisticsi(bθ) (see Appendix A1). In this fashion we again obtainC(MP)n,l≡ n−1{nXi=1m(P)i(bθ)0}{V(P)n,l}−1{nXi=1m(P)i(bθ)},for l = 1,2,3. From (9), it follows that if specification (2) is correct then C(MP)n,ld−→χ2JG; hence, C(MP)n,lcan also be used as a test statistic. Additionally, both C(MP)n,2and C(MP)n,3can be computed using an artificial regression. Specifically, C(MP)n,2coincides with the explained sum of squares in the artificial regression of a vectorof ones on m(P)i(bθ) and gi(bθ), whereas the artificial regression which allows us tois described in Appendix A2.compute C(MP)n,3Finally, when J ≥ 2 and k ≥ 2, Butler and Chatterjee (1997) propose using atest of overidentifying restrictions. Observe that (3) implies that the following Jkmoment conditions hold:E{Xlimji(θ0)} = 0,for l = 1,...,k, j = 1,...,J,where Xlidenotes the l-th component of Xi. Since the number of parameters isk + J − 1, a test of overidentifying restrictions is possible if Jk > k + J − 1, andthis condition holds if and only if J ≥ 2 and k ≥ 2. Adapting the general resultsof the generalized method of moments tests to our framework (see e.g. Hamilton1994, Chapter 14), it follows that now the test of overidentifying restrictions canbe computed as follows: i) obtain an initial estimate of θ0, say θ, by minimizing9
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sn(θ)0sn(θ), where sn(θ) ≡ n−1Pni=1mi(θ) ⊗ Xi; ii) compute Sn(θ), whereSn(θ) ≡⎡⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎣S11,n(θ) ... S1J,n(θ).........SJ1,n(θ) ... SJJ,n(θ)⎤⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎦,Sjj,n(θ) = n−1Pnl; iii) obtain a final estimate of θ0, sayeθ, by minimizing sn(θ)0Sn(θ)−1sn(θ); andiv) compute the test statistici=1XiX0ipji(1−pji) and Sjl,n(θ) = −n−1Pni=1XiX0ipjiplifor j 6=C(BC)n= nsn(eθ)0Sn(θ)−1sn(eθ).n−→ χ2If specification (2) is correct then C(BC)dJk−(k+J−1); thus, C(BC)ncan also beused as a statistic to perform an asymptotically valid specification test.3. STATISTICS BASED ON COMPARISONS BETWEENPARAMETRIC AND NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATIONSMany specification tests have recently been developed using comparisons be-tween parametric and nonparametric estimations. In this paper we consider threeof them: one based on the comparison of joint empirical distribution functions(Andrews 1997), and two others based on comparisons between regression esti-mations, either non-smoothed (Stute 1997) or smoothed (Horowitz and Spokoiny2001). In fact, as we discuss below, only the first of these statistics applies directlyto our framework, but the other two can be conveniently modified to cover ourproblem. We focus on these three statistics because they have the advantage thattheir performance does not depend on the choice of a bandwidth value1. Note as1The test statistics proposed by Andrews (1997) and Stute (1997) do not use any bandwidth.Horowitz and Spokoiny (2001) propose using as a test statistic a maximum from among statisticscomputed with different bandwidths; hence the influence of bandwidth selection is ruled out.10
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well that these three statistics require the use of a root-n-consistent estimator ofθ0; as in the previous section, the ML estimator is the natural choice.Andrews (1997) suggests testing a parametric specification of the conditionaldistribution Y | X = x by comparing the joint empirical distribution function of(Y,X0)0and an estimate of the joint distribution function based on the parametricspecification. Specifically, if F(· | x,θ0) is the assumed parametric conditionaldistribution function of Y | X = x and we denoteXwherebθ is a root-n-consistent estimator of θ0, Andrews (1997) proposes using theKolmogorov-Smirnov-type test statistic:Hn(x,y) ≡ n−1{ni=1I(Yi≤ y,Xi≤ x) −nXi=1F(y | Xi,bθ)I (Xi≤ x)},C(AN)n≡ max1≤j≤n¯¯n1/2Hn(Xj,Yj)¯¯.ncannot be tabulated but, given a sig-The asymptotic null distribution of C(AN)nificance level α, an asymptotically valid critical region is {C(AN)c(AN)α,nis a bootstrap critical value. This bootstrap critical value can be obtainedn> c(AN)α,n }, whereas the 1 − α quantile of {C(AN)∗tistic constructed in the same way as C(AN)n,b, b = 1,...,B}, where C(AN)∗, but using as sample data the b-thn,bis a bootstrap sta-nbootstrap sample {(Y∗and Y∗ib,X∗0ib)0}ni=1, which, in turn, is obtained as follows: X∗ib= Xiibis generated with distribution function F(· | Xi,bθ).Stute (1997) suggests testing the specification of a regression model by compar-ing parametric and nonparametric estimations of the regression function. Specif-ically, if m(·,θ0) is the specified parametric regression function andXRn(x) ≡ n−1[ni=1{Yi− m(Xi,bθ)}I(Xi≤ x)],11
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wherebθ is a root-n-consistent estimator of θ0, then he proposes using the Cramér-von Mises-type statistic Tn ≡Pnapplied to our problem since the specification that we consider is not a regressionl=1Rn(Xl)2. This statistic cannot be directlymodel if J > 1. However, observe that (2) holds if and only ifE(Dji| Xi) = pji(θ0)for j = 1,...,J,(10)that is, our specification is equivalent to the the specification of J regressionmodels. Hence, we can derive a test statistic for our problem following Stute'smethodology as follows: first, we consider Stute's statistic for the j-th regressionmodel in (10), which proves to beC(ST)j,n≡ n−2nXl=1"nXi=1{Dji− pji(bθ)}I(Xi≤ Xl)#2;and then we consider the overall statisticC(ST)n≡JXj=1C(ST)j,n.This way of defining an overall statistic ensures that any deviation in any of theJ regression models considered in (10) will be detected; but other definitions ofthe overall statistic would also ensure this, e.g. max1≤j≤nC(ST)The asymptotic null distribution of C(ST)j,norPJj=1{C(ST)j,n}2.nis not known either, but approximatecritical values can be derived using the bootstrap procedure described above. Theasymptotic validity of this bootstrap procedure in this context can be proved usingarguments similar to those in Stute et al. (1998).Horowitz and Spokoiny (2001) propose testing the specification of a regressionmodel comparing smoothed nonparametric and parametric estimations of the re-gression function with various bandwidths. Specifically, denoteRn,h(x) ≡nXi=1{Yi− m(Xi,bθ)}wi,h(x),12
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where wi,h(x) ≡ K{(x − Xi)/h}/Pnweight, K(·) is the kernel function, h is the bandwidth and, as above, m(·,θ0) isthe specified parametric regression function andbθ is a root-n-consistent estimatorof θ0; with this notation, the statistic proposed in Horowitz and Spokoiny (2001)is Tn≡ maxh∈Hn{Pnstants and Hnis a finite set of possible bandwidth values. As above, we can applyl=1K{(x − Xl)/h} is the Nadaraya-Watsonl=1Rn,h(Xl)2−ˆ Nh}/ˆVh, whereˆ NhandˆVhare normalizing con-this methodology in our context by first computing the statistic corresponding tothe j-th regression model in (10), which proves to beC(HS)j,n≡ maxh∈HnPnl=1hPni=1{Dji− pji(bθ)}wi,h(Xl)i=1i2jl−Pni=1aii,hˆ σ2ji©2PnPnl=1a2il,hˆ σ2jiˆ σ2ª1/2where ail,h≡Pnconsider the overall statisticm=1wi,h(Xm)wl,h(Xm) and ˆ σ2ji≡ pji(bθ){1 − pji(bθ)}; and then weC(HS)n≡JXj=1C(HS)j,n .Again, any deviation in any of the J regression models considered in (10) isdetected in this way. The asymptotic null distribution of C(HS)nis not knowneither, but approximate critical values can be derived using the bootstrap pro-cedure described above. Observe that neither the bootstrap procedure nor theconditional variance estimators ˆ σ2jithat we use are the ones proposed in Horowitzand Spokoiny (2001), because we exploit the fact that in our case the dependentvariable is binary; in this way, a better finite-sample performance is obtained.4. SIMULATIONSIn order to check the behavior of the test statistics, we perform eight MonteCarlo experiments. In all of them we test the null hypothesis that (2) holds with13
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Silver Cross Buttermints. The creamy richness of these tasty buttermints make them a perfect treat for any religious celebration or event! Fill the Easter candy dishes with these during Easter celebrations. The individual, cross-embellished wrappers keep them fresh. Set them out on reception tables or buffets and enjoy. (Approx.108 pcs. per unit) Fat-free. © OTC
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Bible Verse Buttermints
108 Piece(s)
4.9 out of 5
Cross Candy Fun Packs
35 Piece(s)
Now $6.48
4.4 out of 5
Personalized Religious Swirl Pops - Boy
24 Piece(s)
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Bulk Pixy Stix®
144 Piece(s)
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Testamints™ Mint Candy
140 Piece(s)
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Large Silver Gumballs
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Serviced Apartments in The United Kingdom
Whether you are on holiday or on business, Serviced Apartments in the United Kingdom is an excellent cost savings choice. Especially when visiting the bigger cities such as London or Edinburgh, rent for serviced apartments can give you the price level and privacy and comfort to match that hotel do not provide.This page details the largest choice of serviced apartments when looking for Serviced Apartments in The United Kingdom. Serviced apartments choice offer a spacious, flexible and cost effective housing solution. For stays of a short period of time or a longer stay an Serviced Apartments in The United Kingdom is a good accommodation when traveling or settling in. A search for Serviced Apartments in The United Kingdom is often related to the search for flexible and furnished apartments.
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Cheval Calico House Serviced Apartments, London
Serving as a perfect getaway from the hustle of the city is the Cheval Calico House. It is a lovable home complete with all the basic necessities for a modern, luxurious lifestyle. The services superb, and the hotel's prime location affords a quick adventure into the heart of historic London.More info Make a reservation
Mayflower Hotel Serviced Apartments, London
London's Mayflower hotel offers fresh and hip accommodations for affordable rates. Found in the heart of the city, all of London's attractions are easily reached within a few minutes. The best residential options are topped off with a plethora of fantastic services and amenities, making this the ideal modern home.More info Make a reservation
Cheval Phoenix House Serviced Apartments, London
Cheval Phoenix House in Chelsea is full of magnificent wonders to be cherished. The magnificent views of the city and ease of access to London's finest venues are part of the apartment's charm. The services and amenities are highly desirable, offering a very welcome warmth and comfort for dynamic travelers.More info Make a reservation
Fraser Place Chelsea Serviced Apartments, London
With 29 units to choose from, the Bolton Studios has proved to be one of London's sweetest residences. It has very clean and affordable suites, all of which are fully-furnished with the latest and most attractive amenities. Close by, are London's best hotspots, all easily accessed from the Bolton Studios.More info Make a reservation
Fraser Place Canary Wharf Serviced Apartments, London
Perfect for either long stays or short ones, the Fraser Place Canary is a gem of a home found in the heart of London. With is a dazzling array of attractions, amenities and services, there is no better modern residence. The hotel also has prime access to the city's impressive locations.More info Make a reservation
Fraser Suites Kensington Serviced Apartments, London
Perfect for corporate meetings is the Fraser Suites Kensington, located in the center of modern London. Sharp styling with tons of fresh comfort allows for great business gatherings. Adding to its beauty is its fantastic location, making it close to the business district, the Royal Parks, and other modern attractions.More info Make a reservation
Hyde Park Residence Serviced Apartments, London
Oozing with plenty of classical styles and modern luxury is the Hyde Park Residence. Located in the heart of London, this magnificent serviced apartment is home to a variety of dynamic accommodations, services and more. The prime location of Hyde Park Residence allows for quick access to London's best sights.More info Make a reservation
Draycott Place Serviced Apartments, London
building with lots of character and history. The seamless fusion of classical design and modern comfort results in a perfect, idyllic home. Plenty of opportunities for excitement can be found just around Draycott's.More info Make a reservation
Sloane Avenue Serviced Apartments, London
Sloane Avenue Apartments has all of London's sweet charm and blends that with modern luxury living. The harmony of this cultural fusion enables Sloane to become a perfect home right in the heart of a very historic city. The lush accommodations and fantastic services are truly marvelous and without equal.More info Make a reservation
Astons Serviced Apartments, London
London is a very rich city, full of history and distinct culture. Astons Apartments blends the distinct London classic style with modern luxury and comfort. The accommodations are superbly-rendered, fresh, cozy and clean. Ideally close to some of the city's attractions, Astons is a convenient portal to the London life.More info Make a reservation