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Social and ethical perspectives of landslide risk mitigation measures
Kalsnes, Bjørn; Vangelsten, Bjørn V.
Landslide risk may be mitigated by use of a wide range of measures. Mitigation and prevention options may include (1) structural measures to reduce the frequency, severity or exposure to the hazard, (2) non-structural measures, such as land-use planning and early warning systems, to reduce the hazard frequency and consequences, and (3) measures to pool and transfer the risks. In a given situation the appropriate system of mitigation measures may be a combination of various types of measures, both structural and non-structural. In the process of choosing mitigation measures for a given landslide risk situation, the role of the geoscientist is normally to propose possible mitigation measures on basis of the risk level and technical feasibility. Social and ethical perspectives are often neglected in this process. However, awareness of the need to consider social as well as ethical issues in the design and management of mitigating landslide risk is rising. There is a growing understanding that technical experts acting alone cannot determine what will be considered the appropriate set of mitigation and prevention measures. Issues such as environment versus development, questions of acceptable risk, who bears the risks and benefits, and who makes the decisions, also need to be addressed. Policymakers and stakeholders engaged in solving environmental risk problems are increasingly recognising that traditional expert-based decision-making processes are insufficient. This paper analyse the process of choosing appropriate mitigation measures to mitigate landslide risk from a social and ethical perspective, considering technical, cultural, economical, environmental and political elements. The paper focus on stakeholder involvement in the decision making process, and shows how making strategies for risk communication is a key for a successful process. The study is supported by case study examples from Norway and Italy. In the Italian case study, three different risk mitigation options was presented to the local community. The options were based on a thorough stakeholder involvement process ending up in three different views on how to deal with the landslide risk situation: i) protect lives and properties (hierarchical) ; ii) careful stewardship of the mountains (egalitarian); and iii) rational individual choice (individualist).
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jasper Mbachu
Full Text Available While tendering for jobs, a contractor is expected to analyse the various risks in each prospective project and price them appropriately. Contingencies are included in the tender price to cater for the various risks based on their impacts on the project targets and profit margin. Currently in New Zealand (NZ, there is little or no information on the various contractual risks and their mitigation measures. This has led to contractors over compensating or under compensating for risks with costly consequences. This study aimed to establish priority contractual risks in the NZ construction industry, and their mitigation measures. The research was based on a questionnaire survey of consultants and contractors. Descriptive statistics and multi-attribute techniques were used in the data analysis. Results showed 21 risk factors which were segregated into 6 broad categories in diminishing levels of significance as follows: Site conditions, main contractor, pricing, subcontractor, external and client- related risks. Putting tags and conditions to risky price items in the tender bids, and transferring the risks onto other parties were analysed as the 2 most effective out of the 5 key risk mitigation measures identified. Being cautious of the priority risks and application of the identified effective risk mitigation measures could guide contractors and the project team to more appropriately budget for and respond to risks, thereby ensuring more satisfactory project outcomes.
Risk Mitigation Measures: An Important Aspect of the Environmental Risk Assessment of Pharmaceuticals
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Markus Liebig
Full Text Available Within EU marketing authorization procedures of human and veterinary medicinal products (HMP and VMP, an environmental risk assessment (ERA has to be performed. In the event that an unacceptable environmental risk is identified, risk mitigation measures (RMM shall be applied in order to reduce environmental exposure to the pharmaceutical. Within the authorization procedures of HMP, no RMM have been applied so far, except for specific precautions for the disposal of the unused medicinal product or waste materials. For VMP, a limited number of RMM do exist. The aim of this study was to develop consistent and efficient RMM. Therefore, existing RMM were compiled from a summary of product characteristics of authorized pharmaceuticals, and new RMM were developed and evaluated. Based on the results, appropriate RMM were applied within the authorization procedures of medicinal products. For HMP, except for the existing precautions for disposal, no further reasonable measures could be developed. For VMP, two specific precautions for disposal and 17 specific precautions for use in animals were proposed as RMM.
The design of risk mitigation measures for several large tailings dams in Ontario
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Clelland, Lawrence; Noack, Greg; Viles, Keith [Klohn Crippen Berger Ltd, Subbury, (Canada); Donato, Randy; Ross, Trevor [Vale, Sudbury, (Canada)
Vale Inco recently commissioned a risk assessment study on the main dams in the Sudbury central area. The risk assessment included a desktop review of the historical record, subsurface investigations, flood routing analysis, stability analysis and development of a failure modes and effects analyses table for the dams under review. This paper presented an overview of the design of risk mitigation measures at four of the perimeter dams located near the town of Copper Cliff. The present paper comprised a review of the existing stability of the project dams, which indicated several significant issues, including potential for overtopping in the event of a PMF IDF, previous piping related issues and seismic stability issues. remedial measures were designed to reduce risks associated with the identified issues and generally comprised the construction of a new spillway within the P area and stabilising buttresses for the P area project dams.
Sensitivity measures for optimal mitigation of risk and reduction of model uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This paper presents a new set of reliability sensitivity measures. The purpose is to identify the optimal manner in which to mitigate risk to civil infrastructure, and reduce model uncertainty in order to improve risk estimates. Three measures are presented. One identifies the infrastructure components that should be prioritized for retrofit. Another measure identifies the infrastructure that should be prioritized for more refined modeling. The third measure identifies the models that should be prioritized in research to improve models, for example by gathering new data. The developments are presented in the context of a region with 622 buildings that are subjected to seismicity from several sources. A comprehensive seismic risk analysis of this region is conducted, with over 300 random variables, 30 model types, and 4000 model instances. All models are probabilistic and emphasis is placed on the explicit characterization of epistemic uncertainty. For the considered region, the buildings that should first be retrofitted are found to be pre-code unreinforced masonry buildings. Conversely, concrete shear wall buildings rank highest on the list of buildings that should be subjected to more detailed modeling. The ground shaking intensity model for shallow crustal earthquakes and the concrete shear wall structural response model rank highest on the list of models that should be prioritized by research to improve engineering analysis models. -- Highlights: • Three new sensitivity measures are presented to guide the allocation of resources. • The first measure prioritizes infrastructure for retrofit in order to mitigate risk. • The second measure prioritizes probabilistic models for more detailed modeling. • The third measure prioritizes model types for improvement by data gathering. • The measures are showcased by a regional seismic risk analysis of 622 buildings
A methodological frame for assessing benzene induced leukemia risk mitigation due to policy measures
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Karakitsios, Spyros P. [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Chemical Engineering, 54124 Thessaloniki (Greece); Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis A., E-mail: email@example.com [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Chemical Engineering, 54124 Thessaloniki (Greece); Centre for Research and Technology Hellas (CE.R.T.H.), 57001, Thessaloniki (Greece); Gotti, Alberto [Centre for Research and Technology Hellas (CE.R.T.H.), 57001, Thessaloniki (Greece); Kassomenos, Pavlos A. [University of Ioannina, Department of Physics, Laboratory of Meteorology, GR-45110 Ioannina (Greece); Pilidis, Georgios A. [University of Ioannina, Department of Biological Appl. and Technologies, GR-45110 Ioannina (Greece)
The study relies on the development of a methodology for assessing the determinants that comprise the overall leukemia risk due to benzene exposure and how these are affected by outdoor and indoor air quality regulation. An integrated modeling environment was constructed comprising traffic emissions, dispersion models, human exposure models and a coupled internal dose/biology-based dose–response risk assessment model, in order to assess the benzene imposed leukemia risk, as much as the impact of traffic fleet renewal and smoking banning to these levels. Regarding traffic fleet renewal, several "what if" scenarios were tested. The detailed full-chain methodology was applied in a South-Eastern European urban setting in Greece and a limited version of the methodology in Helsinki. Non-smoking population runs an average risk equal to 4.1 · 10{sup ?5} compared to 23.4 · 10{sup ?5} for smokers. The estimated lifetime risk for the examined occupational groups was higher than the one estimated for the general public by 10–20%. Active smoking constitutes a dominant parameter for benzene-attributable leukemia risk, much stronger than any related activity, occupational or not. From the assessment of mitigation policies it was found that the associated leukemia risk in the optimum traffic fleet scenario could be reduced by up to 85% for non-smokers and up to 8% for smokers. On the contrary, smoking banning provided smaller gains for (7% for non-smokers, 1% for smokers), while for Helsinki, smoking policies were found to be more efficient than traffic fleet renewal. The methodology proposed above provides a general framework for assessing aggregated exposure and the consequent leukemia risk from benzene (incorporating mechanistic data), capturing exposure and internal dosimetry dynamics, translating changes in exposure determinants to actual changes in population risk, providing a valuable tool for risk management evaluation and consequently to policy support. - Highlights: ? A comprehensive exposure analysis is greatly facilitated by the thorough use of measurement data and modeling tools. ? Incorporation of internal dose metrics contributes to significant refinement of exposure assessment. ? Similar community policies have completely different effect with respect to different countries/cities.
A methodological frame for assessing benzene induced leukemia risk mitigation due to policy measures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The study relies on the development of a methodology for assessing the determinants that comprise the overall leukemia risk due to benzene exposure and how these are affected by outdoor and indoor air quality regulation. An integrated modeling environment was constructed comprising traffic emissions, dispersion models, human exposure models and a coupled internal dose/biology-based dose–response risk assessment model, in order to assess the benzene imposed leukemia risk, as much as the impact of traffic fleet renewal and smoking banning to these levels. Regarding traffic fleet renewal, several "what if" scenarios were tested. The detailed full-chain methodology was applied in a South-Eastern European urban setting in Greece and a limited version of the methodology in Helsinki. Non-smoking population runs an average risk equal to 4.1 · 10?5 compared to 23.4 · 10?5 for smokers. The estimated lifetime risk for the examined occupational groups was higher than the one estimated for the general public by 10–20%. Active smoking constitutes a dominant parameter for benzene-attributable leukemia risk, much stronger than any related activity, occupational or not. From the assessment of mitigation policies it was found that the associated leukemia risk in the optimum traffic fleet scenario could be reduced by up to 85% for non-smokers and up to 8% for smokers. On the contrary, smoking banning provided smaller gains for (7% for non-smokers, 1% for smokers), while for Helsinki, smoking policies were found to be more efficient than traffic fleet renewal. The methodology proposed above provides a general framework for assessing aggregated exposure and the consequent leukemia risk from benzene (incorporating mechanistic data), capturing exposure and internal dosimetry dynamics, translating changes in exposure determinants to actual changes in population risk, providing a valuable tool for risk management evaluation and consequently to policy support. - Highlights: ? A comprehensive exposure analysis is greatly facilitated by the thorough use of measurement data and modeling tools. ? Incorporation of internal dose metrics contributes to significant refinement of exposure assessment. ? Similar community policies have completely different effect with respect to different countries/cities
CFD evaluation of hydrogen risk mitigation measures in a VVER-440/213 containment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
In the PHARE project 'Hydrogen Management for the VVER440/213' (HU2002/000-632-04-01), CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) calculations using GASFLOW, FLUENT and CFX were performed for the Paks NPP (Nuclear Power Plant), modelling a defined severe accident scenario which involves the release of hydrogen. The purpose of this work is to demonstrate that CFD codes can be used to model gas movement inside a containment during a severe accident. With growing experience in performing such analyses, the results encourage the use of CFD in assessing the risk of losing containment integrity as a result of hydrogen deflagrations. As an effective mitigation measure in such a situation, the implementation of catalytic recombiners is planned in the Paks NPP. In order to support these plans both unmitigated and recombiner-mitigated simulations were performed. These are described and selected results are compared. The codes CFX and FLUENT needed refinement to their models of wall and bulk steam condensation in order to be able to fully simulate the severe accident under consideration. Several CFD codes were used in parallel to model the same accident scenario in order to reduce uncertainties in the results. Previously it was considered impractical to use CFD codes to simulate a full containment subject to a severe accident extending over many hours. This was because of the expected prohibitive computing times and missing physical capabilities of the codes. This work demonstrates that of the codes. This work demonstrates that, because of developments in the capabilities of CFD codes and improvements in computer power, these calculations have now become feasible.
Disaster risk mitigation – why human rights matter
Walter Kälin; Claudine Haenni Dale
Existing human rights obligations already require states totake measures to mitigate the risks of natural or man-madedisasters – including those due to climate change – and thusto prevent displacement.
Disaster risk mitigation – why human rights matter
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Walter Kälin
Full Text Available Existing human rights obligations already require states totake measures to mitigate the risks of natural or man-madedisasters – including those due to climate change – and thusto prevent displacement.
Landslides risk mitigation along lifelines
Capparelli, G.; Versace, P.; Artese, G.; Costanzo, S.; Corsonello, P.; Di Massa, G.; Mendicino, G.; Maletta, D.; Leone, S.; Muto, F.; Senatore, A.; Troncone, A.; Conte, E.; Galletta, D.
The paper describes an integrated, innovative and efficient solution to manage risk issues associated to landslides interfering with infrastructures. The research project was submitted for financial support in the framework of the Multi -regional Operational Programme 2007-13: Research and Competitiveness funded by the Ministry of Research (MIUR) and co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund. The project is aimed to developing and demonstrating an integrated system of monitoring, early warning and mitigation of landslides risk. The final goal is to timely identify potentially dangerous landslides, and to activate all needed impact mitigation measures, including the information delivery. The essential components of the system include monitoring arrays, telecommunication networks and scenario simulation models, assisted by a data acquisition and processing centre, and a traffic control centres. Upon integration, the system will be experimentally validated and demonstrated over ca. 200 km of three highway sections, crossing the regions of Campania, Basilicata, Calabria and Sicily. Progress in the state of art is represented by the developments in the field of environmental monitoring and in the mathematical modeling of landslides and by the development of services for traffic management. The approach to the problem corresponds to a "systemic logics" where each developed component foresees different interchangeable technological solutions to maximize the operational flexibility. The final system may be configured as a simple to complex structure, including different configurations to deal with different scenarios. Specifically, six different monitoring systems will be realized: three "point" systems, made up of a network of locally measuring sensors, and three "area" systems to remotely measure the displacements of large areas. Each network will be fully integrated and connected to a unique data transmission system. Standardized and shared procedures for the identification of risk scenarios will be developed, concerning the surveys to be carried out, the procedures for each type of on-site testing and guidelines and dynamic templates for presentations of results, such as highway risk maps e.g. The setting up of data acquisition and processing centre and traffic control centre are the core of the integrated system. The DAC (data acquisition center, newly designed) will acquire and process data varying in intensity, dimensions, characteristics and information content. The Traffic Control Center (TCC) is meant to integrate the scientific and the management aspects of hydrological risk monitoring and early warning. The overall system is expected to benefit of the development of new, advanced mathematical models on landslide triggers and propagation. Triggering models will be empirical or hydrological, represented by simple empirical relationships, obtained by linking the antecedent rainfall and the landslide time occurrence, and complete models identified through more complex expressions that take into account different components as the specific site conditions, the mechanical, hydraulic and physical properties of soils and slopes, the local seepage conditions and their contribution to soil strength. The industrial partners of the University of Calabria are Autostrade Tech, Strago and TD Group, with the Universities of Firenze and Catania acting research Partners.
Model-based mitigation of availability risks
Zambon, Emmanuele; Bolzoni, Damiano; Etalle, Sandro; Salvato, Marco
The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for Risk Assessment and Mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due to the fact that they do not fully consider the dependencies between the constituents of an IT infrastructure that are paramount in large enterprises. These dependencies make the technical problem ...
Adaptation, mitigation and risk-taking in climate policy
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Auerswald, Heike; Thum, Marcel [Technical Univ. Dresden (Germany). Faculty of Business and Economics; Konrad, Kai A. [Max-Planck-Insitute, Muenchen (Germany)
The future consequences of climate change are highly uncertain. Today, the exact size of possible future damages are widely unknown. Governments try to cope with these risks by investing in mitigation and adaptation measures. Mitigation aims at a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions whereas adaptation reduces the follow-up costs of climate change. In contrast to the existing literature, we explicitly model the decision of risk-averse governments on mitigation and adaptation policies. Furthermore we also consider the interaction of the two strategies. Mitigation efforts of a single country trigger crowding out as other countries will reduce their mitigation efforts. We show that, under fairly mild conditions, a unilateral increase in mitigation efforts of a single country can even increase global emissions. In contrast, a unilateral commitment to large adaptation efforts benefits the single country and may reduce the global risk from climate change at the expense of other countries. (orig.)
12 CFR 702.108 - Risk mitigation credit.
...2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk mitigation credit. 702.108 Section 702...Classification § 702.108 Risk mitigation credit. (a) Who may apply. ...proof of mitigation of: (1) Credit risk; or (2) Interest...
Approved Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies
U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007 gave FDA the authority to require a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) from manufacturers to...
Albrecht, Peter
The present review of (financial) risk measures, prepared for the Encyclopaedia of Actuarial Science, first distinguishes two conceptions of risk. Risk of the first kind conceives risk as the magnitude of (one- or two-sided) deviations from a target, whereas risk of the second kind conceives risk as necessary capital or necessary premium, respectively. Some important axiomatic characterizations of risk measures are reviewed, including a characterization of a correspondence between risk measur...
Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation
Voss, T.; Lenstra, Arjen K.
As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is currently under development for deployment. We show how to find a risk mitigation strategy that is optimal with respect to the model used and the available budget.
Coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures of hydro-meteorological risks: the importance of establishing a link between emergency management and spatial planning
Prenger-Berninghoff, Kathrin; Cortes, V. Juliette; Aye, Zar Chi; Sprague, Teresa
The management of natural hazards involves, as generally known, the four stages of the risk management cycle: Prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. Accordingly, the mitigation of disasters can be performed in terms of short-term and long-term purposes. Whereas emergency management or civil protection helps to strengthen a community's capacity to be better prepared for natural hazards and to better respond in case a disaster strikes, thus addressing the short-term perspective, spatial planning serves long-term planning goals and can therefore implement long-term prevention measures. A purposefully applied risk mitigation strategy requires coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures and thus an effective coordination of emergency management and spatial planning. Several actors are involved in risk management and should consequently be linked throughout the whole risk management cycle. However, these actors, partly because of a historically fragmented administrative system, are hardly connected to each other, with spatial planning only having a negligible role compared to other actors1, a problem to which Young (2002) referred to as the "problem of interplay". In contrast, information transfer and decision-taking happen at the same time and are not coordinated among different actors. This applies to the prevention and preparedness phase as well as to the recovery phase, which basically constitutes the prevention phase for the next disaster2. Since investments in both risk prevention and emergency preparedness and response are considered necessary, a better coordination of the two approaches is required. In this regard, Decision Support Systems (DSS) can be useful in order to provide support in the decision-making aspect of risk management. The research work currently undertaken examines the problem of interplay in the four case study areas of the Marie Curie ITN, CHANGES3. The link between different risk management actors will be explored by means of exploratory questionnaires and interviews with government agencies, local administrations, community and research organizations on each study site. First results provided will address the general role of spatial planning in risk management. Additionally, preliminary observations are made in regard to the coordination of emergency preparedness and long-term spatial planning activities. The observations consider that integration facilitates proactive strategies that aim at preventing disaster occurrence and promote interaction between involved parties. Finally, consideration is given to the potential use of a DSS tool to cover both aspects of spatial planning and emergency management in the risk management cycle.
Emerging Radiation Health-Risk Mitigation Technologies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Past space missions beyond the confines of the Earth's protective magnetic field have been of short duration and protection from the effects of solar particle events was of primary concern. The extension of operational infrastructure beyond low-Earth orbit to enable routine access to more interesting regions of space will require protection from the hazards of the accumulated exposures of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR). There are significant challenges in providing protection from the long-duration exposure to GCR: the human risks to the exposures are highly uncertain and safety requirements places unreasonable demands in supplying sufficient shielding materials in the design. A vigorous approach to future radiation health-risk mitigation requires a triage of techniques (using biological and technical factors) and reduction of the uncertainty in radiation risk models. The present paper discusses the triage of factors for risk mitigation with associated materials issues and engineering design methods
Radon risk assessment and mitigation objectives
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Radon concentration in structures can be determined by several techniques which measure radon gas, its decay daughters or decay energy. Specific measuring protocols have been established by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.E.P.A.) to assure consistent analytic results. The U.S.E.P.A. has also established a level of radon concentration in homes of 4 picoCuries/liter of radon as a guideline, based on studies of uranium mine workers in which the rate of lung cancer occurrences in miners was correlated to time of exposure in uranium mines. An estimated one million homes are characterized as having an indoor radon concentration of 8 picoCuries/liter. Current remediation techniques utilize readily available materials and familiar methods to reduce radon content and infiltration in structures. The paper suggests a diagnostician and resident of a structure establish an acceptable level of risk as an objective prior to remedial action. This objective should be used to determine mitigation strategy and performance
Space debris mitigation measures in India
Adimurthy, V.; Ganeshan, A. S.
The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) recognizes the importance of the current space debris scenario, and the impact it has on the effective utilization of space technology for the improvement in the quality of life on the Earth. ISRO is committed to effective management of the threats due to space debris. Towards this commitment ISRO works on different aspects of space debris, including the debris mitigation measures. This paper highlights the activities and achievements in the implementation of the mitigation measures. ISRO successfully designed and developed a propellant venting system for implementation in the existing upper stage of India's Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV), which uses Earth-storable liquid propellants. GSLV also employs passivation of the Cryogenic Upper Stage at the end of its useful mission. ISRO's communication satellites in GSO are designed with adequate propellant margins for re-orbiting at the end of their useful life to a higher graveyard orbit. A typical successful operation in connection with INSAT-2C is described. ISRO developed its debris environmental models and software to predict the close approach of any of the debris to the functional satellites. The software are regularly used for the debris risk management of the orbiting spacecraft and launch vehicles. ISRO recognizes the role of international cooperation in the debris mitigation measures and actively contributes to the efforts of the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) and United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNCOPUOS).
Mitigating systemic risks in future networks
MANZALINI, Antonio; Crespi, Noel
This paper elaborates about the potential risks of systemic instabilities in future networks and proposes a methodology to control and mitigate them. The starting concept is modeling the network as a complex environment (e.g. ecosystem) of resources and associated controllers in a continuous and dynamic game of cooperation and competition. Key observation is that Internet might be viewed as "self-organizing" and that this is achieved through "constrained optimizations" (through protocols meth...
Mitigating risk in academic preclinical drug discovery.
Dahlin, Jayme L; Inglese, James; Walters, Michael A
The number of academic drug discovery centres has grown considerably in recent years, providing new opportunities to couple the curiosity-driven research culture in academia with rigorous preclinical drug discovery practices used in industry. To fully realize the potential of these opportunities, it is important that academic researchers understand the risks inherent in preclinical drug discovery, and that translational research programmes are effectively organized and supported at an institutional level. In this article, we discuss strategies to mitigate risks in several key aspects of preclinical drug discovery at academic drug discovery centres, including organization, target selection, assay design, medicinal chemistry and preclinical pharmacology. PMID:25829283
Mitigation of foreign Direct investment risk and hedging
Wahl, Jack E.; Broll, Udo
Instruments of risk mitigation play an important role in managing country risk within the foreign direct investment (FDI) decision. Our study assesses country risk by state-dependent preferences and introduces futures contracts as a tool of risk mitigation. We show that country risk assessments related to foreign direct investment do not matter if the multinational firm enters currency futures markets. Besides currency risk, multinationals cross-hedge country risk via the derivatives market. ...
A web-based tool for ranking landslide mitigation measures
Lacasse, S.; Vaciago, G.; Choi, Y. J.; Kalsnes, B.
As part of the research done in the European project SafeLand "Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies", a compendium of structural and non-structural mitigation measures for different landslide types in Europe was prepared, and the measures were assembled into a web-based "toolbox". Emphasis was placed on providing a rational and flexible framework applicable to existing and future mitigation measures. The purpose of web-based toolbox is to assist decision-making and to guide the user in the choice of the most appropriate mitigation measures. The mitigation measures were classified into three categories, describing whether the mitigation measures addressed the landslide hazard, the vulnerability or the elements at risk themselves. The measures considered include structural measures reducing hazard and non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences (or vulnerability and exposure of elements at risk). The structural measures include surface protection and control of surface erosion; measures modifying the slope geometry and/or mass distribution; measures modifying surface water regime - surface drainage; measures mo¬difying groundwater regime - deep drainage; measured modifying the mechanical charac¬teristics of unstable mass; transfer of loads to more competent strata; retaining structures (to modify slope geometry and/or to transfer stress to compe¬tent layer); deviating the path of landslide debris; dissipating the energy of debris flows; and arresting and containing landslide debris or rock fall. The non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences: early warning systems; restricting or discouraging construction activities; increasing resistance or coping capacity of elements at risk; relocation of elements at risk; sharing of risk through insurance. The measures are described in the toolbox with fact sheets providing a brief description, guidance on design, schematic details, practical examples and references for each mitigation measure. Each of the measures was given a score on its ability and applicability for different types of landslides and boundary conditions, and a decision support matrix was established. The web-based toolbox organizes the information in the compendium and provides an algorithm to rank the measures on the basis of the decision support matrix, and on the basis of the risk level estimated at the site. The toolbox includes a description of the case under study and offers a simplified option for estimating the hazard and risk levels of the slide at hand. The user selects the mitigation measures to be included in the assessment. The toolbox then ranks, with built-in assessment factors and weights and/or with user-defined ranking values and criteria, the mitigation measures included in the analysis. The toolbox includes data management, e.g. saving data half-way in an analysis, returning to an earlier case, looking up prepared examples or looking up information on mitigation measures. The toolbox also generates a report and has user-forum and help features. The presentation will give an overview of the mitigation measures considered and examples of the use of the toolbox, and will take the attendees through the application of the toolbox.
Disease management mitigates risk of pathogen transmission from maricultured salmonids
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jones, Simon R. M.; Bruno, David W.
Open marine net pens facilitate virus and sea lice transfer, occasionally leading to infections and outbreaks of disease in farmed salmon. A review of 3 salmon pathogens (infectious salmon anaemia virus [ISAV], salmon alphavirus [SAV] and the salmon louse Lepeophtheirus salmonis) shows that increased risk of exposure to neighbouring farms is inversely related to distance from and directly related to biomass at the source of infection. Epidemiological techniques integrating data from oceanography, diagnostics and pathogen shedding rates and viability contribute to improved understanding of pathogen transmission pathways among farms and permit the designation of areas of risk associated with sources of infection. Occupation of an area of risk may increase the likelihood of exposure, infection and disease among susceptible fish. Disease mitigation in mariculture occurs at 2 scales: area-based (coordinated stocking, harvesting and fallowing) and farm-based (vaccination, early pathogen detection, veterinary prescribed treatments and depopulation or early harvest in the event of viral disease). Collectively, implementation of mitigation measures results in virus disease outbreaks of shorter duration with lower mortality and therefore reduces the likelihood of pathogen transmission. In contrast, the mitigation of sea lice transmission is less likely to be effective in some areas due to the loss of parasite sensitivity to therapeutants and to dissemination of larval lice when parasites occur below management thresholds. For wild populations, risk of pathogen spillback is estimated from farm-based epidemiological data; however, validation, particularly for ISAV and SAV, is required using direct surveillance.
Mitigating Systemic Risks in Future Networks
Manzalini, Antonio
This paper elaborates about the potential risk of systemic instabilities in future networks and proposes a methodology to mitigate it. The starting concept is modeling the network as a complex environment (e.g. ecosystem) of resources and associated functional controllers in a continuous and dynamic game of cooperation - competition. Methodology foresees defining and associating utility functions to these controllers and elaborating a global utility function (as a function of the controllers' utility functions) for the overall network. It is conjectured that the optimization of the global utility function ensures network stability and security evaluations. Paper concludes arguing that self-governance (with limited human intervention) is possible provided that proper local, global control rules are coded into these utility functions optimization processes.
Bioenergy as a Mitigation Measure
Dass, P.; Brovkin, V.; Müller, C.; Cramer, W.
Numerous studies have shown that bioenergy, being one of the renewable energies with the lowest costs, is expected to play an important role in the near future as climate change mitigation measure. Current practices of converting crop products such as carbohydrates or plant oils to ethanol or biodiesel have limited capabilities to curb emission. Moreover, they compete with food production for the most fertile lands. Thus, second generation bioenergy technologies are being developed to process lignocellulosic plant materials from fast growing tree and grass species. A number of deforestation experiments using Earth System models have shown that in the mid- to high latitudes, deforested surface albedo strongly increases in presence of snow. This biophysical effect causes cooling, which could dominate over the biogeochemical warming effect because of the carbon emissions due to deforestation. In order to find out the global bioenergy potential of extensive plantations in the mid- to high latitudes, and the resultant savings in carbon emissions, we use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL run at a high spatial resolution of 0.5°. It represents both natural and managed ecosystems, including the cultivation of cellulosic energy crops. LPJmL is run with 21st century projections of climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration based on the IPCC-SRES business as usual or A2 scenario. Latitudes above 45° in both hemispheres are deforested and planted with crops having the highest bioenergy return for the respective pixels of the model. The rest of the Earth has natural vegetation. The agricultural management intensity values are used such that it results in the best approximation for 1999 - 2003 national yields of wheat and maize as reported by FAOSTAT 2009. Four different scenarios of land management are used ranging from an idealistic or best case scenario, where all limitations of soil and terrain properties are managed to the worst case scenario where none of these properties are managed. Simulated bioenergy potentials from 1901 to 2098 correspond to a significant percentage of the global energy demand and thus could potentially bring about considerable savings in carbon emissions. These potentials will be reported and compared to the energy demand. Analysis of their sensitivities to different land management scenarios will be presented as well.
Risk measuring under liquidity risk
Allaj, Erindi
We present a general framework for measuring the liquidity risk. The theoretical framework defines a class of risk measures that incorporate the liquidity risk into the standard risk measures. We consider a one-period risk measurement model. The liquidity risk is defined as the risk that a given security or a portfolio of securities cannot be easily sold or bought by the financial institutions without causing significant changes in prices. The new risk measures present some ...
77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...
...Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science...Drug Administration, HHS. ACTION: Notice of public workshop...Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science...Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS). The input from...
Mitigation of ineffective measures against radon.
Jiránek, M; Neznal, M; Neznal, M
Reasons of low effectiveness of radon remedial measures have been studied on several unsuccessfully remediated houses. Based on the thorough analysis, factors responsible for failures are clarified. The possibilities of how to improve the effectiveness of installed measures are also discussed. Experience in this field is documented by several examples of additionally mitigated houses. After application of additional measures, indoor radon concentration in the studied houses decreased in average 5.3 times. Costs for additional mitigation were at least four times cheaper compared with costs required for installation of original measures. PMID:18397929
Mitigation of ineffective measures against radon
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reasons of low effectiveness of radon remedial measures have been studied on several unsuccessfully remediated houses. Based on the thorough analysis, factors responsible for failures are clarified. The possibilities of how to improve the effectiveness of installed measures are also discussed. Experience in this field is documented by several examples of additionally mitigated houses. After application of additional measures, indoor radon concentration in the studied houses decreased in average 5.3 times. Costs for additional mitigation were at least four times cheaper compared with costs required for installation of original measures. (authors)
Natural hazards and disasters: origins, risks, mitigation and prediction
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Koch, M. [Kassel Univ. (Gesamthochschule) (Germany). Fachgebiet Technische Hydraulik und Ingenieurhydraulik
The paper starts by discussing some general concepts of quantifying natural hazards and disasters in terms of risk they pose to humans and their infrastructure. It is demonstrated that this task requires a careful separation of the notions of hazard assessment, vulnerability, risk assessment and hazard prediction. The core of the paper is then devoted to a detailed presentation of the geological hazards and disasters, namely earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides and tsunamis and the scientific approaches to assess their risks and to provide measures of hazard reduction, mainly through prediction and early warning. It is illustrated, however, that in spite of large scientific efforts in recent decades, progress in effective disaster mitigation is minor, least not for the reason of increasing population pressure in some of the most hazardous regions of the world. (orig.)
A simplified quasi-2d model of the Po River for the identification of large-scale flood-risk mitigation measures
Domeneghetti, A.; Castellarin, A.; Brath, A.; Colombo, A.
The Flood Directive 2007/60/EC (European Commission, 2007) promotes a paradigm shift from engineering defences to flood-risk mitigation and management strategies. The actual implementation of the Directive necessarily implies the development of reliable procedures for assessing the flood-risk associated with flood prone areas. These procedures can then be adopted by Institutions and public bodies in charge of formulating robust flood risk management strategies for large European rivers for identifying optimal policies for a given area. Optimal policies need to be identified at catchment scale through a holistic approach, and this applies also to large European rivers. Our study focuses on the middle-lower reach of the River Po (~350 km), the longest Italian river and the largest in terms of streamflow. We show a large-scale application of a quasi two-dimensional (quasi-2D) model to support the identification of the optimal management strategy of an extreme flood event (recurrence interval ~500 years) by means of controlled flooding (flooding of portions of the flood-prone area located outside the main embankments through ad-hoc lateral structures) for a flood-prone area of ~6,1x103 square kilometres. Different flooding scenarios associated with several possible geometric configurations of the system of lateral structures are compared in terms of flood losses, characterized through the analysis of CORINE land cover data relative to the period 1990-2006. The results of the study show how a simplified quasi-2D model may be effectively used to: (1) provide useful indications on the flood-risk associated with a large flood prone area; (2) support the identification of optimal flood-risk mitigation strategies and (3) assess the impact of recent land-use dynamics (i.e. population-growth, changes agricultural practices, etc.) on flood-risk.
Natural Hazards Monitoring and Risk Mitigation
International Science & Technology Center (ISTC)
Principles of Monitoring of Hazardous Geodynamic and Glaciohydrometeorological Processes in the Areas of Strategically Important for Economics of Georgia Objects and Recommendations on Hazard Mitigation
Determining and mitigating risks of disease introduction
Biosecurity can be defined as a system of processes (i.e., inputs, movements and other activities), each with a set of procedures, that taken together minimize the risk of introduction and spread of infectious organisms within or between aquatic animal populations. Biosecurity measures at the site l...
Phishing Techniques and Mitigating the Associated Security Risks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marc A. Rader
Full Text Available Organizations invest heavily in technicalcontrols for their Information Assurance (IA infrastructure.These technical controls mitigate and reduce the risk of damage caused by outsider attacks. Mostorganizations rely on training to mitigate and reduce risk of non-technical attacks such as socialengineering. Organizations lump IA training into small modules that personnel typically rush throughbecause the training programs lack enough depth and creativity to keep a trainee engaged. The key toretaining knowledge is making the information memorable. This paper describes common and emergingattack vectors and how to lower and mitigate the associated risks.
Influence of behavioral biases on the assessment of multi-hazard risks and the implementation of multi-hazard risks mitigation measures: case study of multi-hazard cyclone shelters in Tamil Nadu, India
Komendantova, Nadejda; Patt, Anthony
In December 2004, a multiple hazards event devastated the Tamil Nadu province of India. The Sumatra -Andaman earthquake with a magnitude of Mw=9.1-9.3 caused the Indian Ocean tsunami with wave heights up to 30 m, and flooding that reached up to two kilometers inland in some locations. More than 7,790 persons were killed in the province of Tamil Nadu, with 206 in its capital Chennai. The time lag between the earthquake and the tsunami's arrival in India was over an hour, therefore, if a suitable early warning system existed, a proper means of communicating the warning and shelters existing for people would exist, than while this would not have prevented the destruction of infrastructure, several thousands of human lives would have been saved. India has over forty years of experience in the construction of cyclone shelters. With additional efforts and investment, these shelters could be adapted to other types of hazards such as tsunamis and flooding, as well as the construction of new multi-hazard cyclone shelters (MPCS). It would therefore be possible to mitigate one hazard such as cyclones by the construction of a network of shelters while at the same time adapting these shelters to also deal with, for example, tsunamis, with some additional investment. In this historical case, the failure to consider multiple hazards caused significant human losses. The current paper investigates the patterns of the national decision-making process with regards to multiple hazards mitigation measures and how the presence of behavioral and cognitive biases influenced the perceptions of the probabilities of multiple hazards and the choices made for their mitigation by the national decision-makers. Our methodology was based on the analysis of existing reports from national and international organizations as well as available scientific literature on behavioral economics and natural hazards. The results identified several biases in the national decision-making process when the construction of cyclone shelters was being undertaken. The availability heuristics caused a perception of low probability of tsunami following an earthquake, as the last large similar event happened over a hundred years ago. Another led to a situation when decisions were taken on the basis of experience and not statistical evidence, namely, experience showed that the so-called "Ring of Fire" generates underground earthquakes and tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean. This knowledge made decision-makers to neglect the numerical estimations about probability of underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean even though seismologists were warning about probability of a large underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean. The bounded rationality bias led to misperception of signals from the early warning center in the Pacific Ocean. The resulting limited concern resulted in risk mitigation measures that considered cyclone risks, but much less about tsunami. Under loss aversion considerations, the decision-makers perceived the losses connected with the necessary additional investment as being greater than benefits from mitigating a less probable hazard.
Effectiveness of landslide risk mitigation strategies in Shihmen Watershed, Taiwan
Wu, Chun-Yi; Chen, Su-Chin
The purpose of this study was to establish landslide risk analysis procedures that can be used to analyze landslide risk in a watershed scale and to assess the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. Landslide risk analysis encompassed the landslide hazard, the vulnerability of elements at risk, and community resilience capacity. First, landslide spatial probability, landslide temporal probability, and landslide area probability were joined to estimate the probability of landslides with an area exceeding a certain threshold in each slope unit. Second, the expected property and life losses were both analyzed in vulnerability analysis. Different elements at risk were assigned corresponding values, and then used in conjunction with the vulnerabilities to carry out quantitative analysis. Third, the resilience capacity of different communities was calculated based on the scores obtained through community checklists and the weights of individual items, including "the participation experience of disaster prevention drill," "real-time monitoring mechanism of community," "autonomous monitoring of residents," and "disaster prevention volunteer." Finally, the landslide probabilities, vulnerability analysis results, and resilience capacities were combined to assess landslide risk in Shihmen Watershed. In addition, the risks before and after the implementation of non-structural disaster prevention strategies were compared to determine the benefits of various strategies, and subsequently benefit-cost analysis was performed. Communities with high benefit-cost ratios included Hualing, Yisheng, Siouluan, and Gaoyi. The watershed as a whole had a benefit-cost ratio far greater than 1, indicating that the effectiveness of strategies was greater than the investment cost, and these measures were thus cost-effective. The results of factor sensitivity analysis revealed that changes in vulnerability and mortality rates would increase the uncertainty of risk, and that raise in annual interest rates or reduction in life cycle of measures would decrease the benefit-cost ratio. However, with regard to effectiveness analysis, these changes did not reverse the cost-effective inference.
Mitigating corporate water risk: Financial market tools and supply management
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wendy M. Larson
Full Text Available A decision framework for business water-risk response is proposed that considers financial instruments and supply management strategies. Based on available and emergent programmes, companies in the agricultural, commodities, and energy sectors may choose to hedge against financial risks by purchasing futures contracts or insurance products. These strategies address financial impacts such as revenue protection due to scarcity and disruption of direct operations or in the supply chain, but they do not directly serve to maintain available supplies to continue production. In contrast, companies can undertake actions in the watershed to enhance supply reliability and/or they can reduce demand to mitigate risk. Intermediate strategies such as purchasing of water rights or water trading involving financial transactions change the allocation of water but do not reduce overall watershed demand or increase water supply. The financial services industry is playing an increasingly important role, by considering how water risks impact decision making on corporate growth and market valuation, corporate creditworthiness, and bond rating. Risk assessment informed by Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR measures is described, and the role of the financial services industry is characterised. A corporate decision framework is discussed in the context of water resources management strategies under complex uncertainties.
Roadmap to risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) success
Balian, John D.; Wherry, Janice C.; Malhotra, Rachpal; Perentesis, Valerie
Medical safety-related risk management is a rapidly evolving and increasingly important aspect of drug approval and market longevity. To effectively meet the challenges of this new era, we describe a risk management roadmap that proactively yet practically anticipates risk-management requirements, provides the foundation for enduring yet appropriately flexible risk-management practices, and leverages these techniques to efficiently and effectively utilize risk evaluation and mitigation strate...
Optimising import risk mitigation: anticipating the unintended consequences and competing risks of informal trade.
Hueston, W; Travis, D; van Klink, E
The effectiveness of risk mitigation may be compromised by informal trade, including illegal activities, parallel markets and extra-legal activities. While no regulatory system is 100% effective in eliminating the risk of disease transmission through animal and animal product trade, extreme risk aversion in formal import health regulations may increase informal trade, with the unintended consequence of creating additional risks outside regulatory purview. Optimal risk mitigation on a national scale requires scientifically sound yet flexible mitigation strategies that can address the competing risks of formal and informal trade. More robust risk analysis and creative engagement of nontraditional partners provide avenues for addressing informal trade. PMID:21809773
Understanding household preferences for hurricane risk mitigation information: evidence from survey responses.
Chatterjee, Chiradip; Mozumder, Pallab
Risk information is critical to adopting mitigation measures, and seeking risk information is influenced by a variety of factors. An essential component of the recently adopted My Safe Florida Home (MSFH) program by the State of Florida is to provide homeowners with pertinent risk information to facilitate hurricane risk mitigation activities. We develop an analytical framework to understand household preferences for hurricane risk mitigation information through allowing an intensive home inspection. An empirical analysis is used to identify major drivers of household preferences to receive personalized information regarding recommended hurricane risk mitigation measures. A variety of empirical specifications show that households with home insurance, prior experience with damages, and with a higher sense of vulnerability to be affected by hurricanes are more likely to allow inspection to seek information. However, households with more members living in the home and households who live in manufactured/mobile homes are less likely to allow inspection. While findings imply MSFH program's ability to link incentives offered by private and public agencies in promoting mitigation, households that face a disproportionately higher level of risk can get priority to make the program more effective. PMID:24673618
Efficiency of different radon mitigation measures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
In particular high radon areas in Germany and Austria, the radon concentrations indoors reach maximum values of approximately 100 kBq/m3. In these regions the only important radon source is the soil which either shows a very high uranium content or makes a fast radon transport possible. The feasibility and the effectiveness of different radon mitigation measures in some of the highest exposed houses were tested. The determinations of radon concentrations were carried out by various types of measuring systems such as charcoal or alpha track dosimeters. The radon exhalation rates, an important factor for radon mitigation, were measured directly by electrostatic deposition of Polonium-218 onto a detector and subsequent alpha spectroscopy. Three general reconstruction measures against radon entry into houses could be proposed, the increase of indoor ventilation, the sealing of the building against the soil and different types of pressure variation. For each house an individual mitigation plan has to be set up including a decision for a particular measure or a combination of different methods. (4 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.)
Risk Assessment of Arsenic Mitigation Options in Bangladesh
Howard, Guy; Ahmed, M. Feroze; Shamsuddin, Abu Jafar; Mahmud, Shamsul Gafur; Deere, Daniel
The provision of alternative water sources is the principal arsenic mitigation strategy in Bangladesh, but can lead to risk substitution. A study of arsenic mitigation options was undertaken to assess water quality and sanitary condition and to estimate the burden of disease associated with each technology in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Dugwells and pond-sand filters showed heavy microbial contamination in both dry and monsoon seasons, and the estimated burden of disease was high....
Mitigation measurement of ATWS severe accident
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
By using a simulator based on SCDAP/RELAP5 computer code, the core damage progression and the effectiveness of preventive and mitigation measurements are analyzed with the Anticipated Transients without Scram (ATWS) sequences caused by the loss of main feed water (LOFW), the loss of off-site power (LOOP) and uncontrolled rod cluster control assembly (RCCA) bank withdrawal, combined with the failure of reactor control and protection system (CPS) in Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) unit 1. (author)
Transport and greenhouse gas emissions : Mitigation measures
Giacobbe, Nora; Ao?n, Laura; Frediani, Julieta C.; Ravella, Olga
This paper presents a comparative analysis of transportation-driven GHG emissions as well as a set of mitigation measures in four mid-sized Argentinian cities. Passenger and freight transport were considered as part of the mobility system. Information was gathered through origin/destination surveys and data provided by freight companies with urban destinations. According to the results of a research project, 36.98% of the population in the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires produces 70.12% of ...
Mitigation measures and programs in Hungary
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Molnar, S. [Systemexpert Consulting Ltd., Budapest (Hungary)
In Hungary there are four main governmental programs, which may result in a decrease of emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs): (1) National program of energy efficiency improvement and energy conservation, (2) Afforestation program, (3) Volatile organic compounds (VOC) emission reduction program, and (4) Program to reduce the use of ozone depleting substances. These ambitious programs were launched in the beginning of the 90`s, but they have been slowed down because of budgetary problems. The comprehensive action plan for mitigation of GHG emissions should be based on these ongoing programs. These programs should be expanded by further measures and programs in order to fulfill the requirements of the FCCC. In the next sections the results and prospects of the above mentioned programs will be summarized. Also the results of the mitigation study supported by the U.S. Country Studies Program are included.
Radon measurement and mitigation activity in Finland
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Radon prevention, measurement and mitigation activities have been increasing in Finland during the 2000's. Nowadays, many municipal authorities, especially those located in high-radon areas, require radon prevention measures. This has activated radon measurements. Owners of new houses having radon piping installed under the floor slab are the most active group to measure and reduce the found high-radon values. Their radon awareness is apparently better than on the average, and the existing piping makes it easier and cheaper to reduce the radon levels. Local campaigns involving invitation flyers mailed to the residents have been a cost-effective means to activate measurements of older houses. So far 116 611 dwellings in low-rise residential buildings have been measured. At least 15 % of the 16 860 dwellings found to exceed the reference level of 400 Bq m-3 had their indoor radon level reduced below that. (authors)
Radon measurement and mitigation activity in Finland.
Valmari, T; Arvela, H; Reisbacka, H; Holmgren, O
Radon prevention, measurement and mitigation activities have been increasing in Finland during the 2000s. Nowadays, many municipal authorities, especially those located in high-radon areas, require radon prevention measures. This has activated radon measurements. Owners of new houses having radon piping installed under the floor slab are the most active group to measure and reduce the found high-radon values. Their radon awareness is apparently better than on the average, and the existing piping makes it easier and cheaper to reduce the radon levels. Local campaigns involving invitation flyers mailed to the residents have been a cost-effective means to activate measurements of older houses. So far 116,611 dwellings in low-rise residential buildings have been measured. At least 15% of the 16,860 dwellings found to exceed the reference level of 400 Bq m(-3) had their indoor radon level reduced below that. PMID:24729562
Mitigating Hardware Cyber-Security Risks in Error Correcting Decoders
Hemati, Saied
This paper investigates hardware cyber-security risks associated with channel decoders, which are commonly acquired as a black box in semiconductor industry. It is shown that channel decoders are potentially attractive targets for hardware cyber-security attacks and can be easily embedded with malicious blocks. Several attack scenarios are considered in this work and suitable methods for mitigating the risks are proposed. These methods are based on randomizing the inputs of ...
To protect or abandon: a participatory process on landslide risk mitigation
Scolobig, A.; Bayer, J.; Cascini, L.; Ferlisi, S.
With escalating costs of landslide risk mitigation and relief, a challenge for local authorities is to develop landslide risk mitigation measures that are viewed as efficient, feasible and fair by the many stakeholders involved. Innovative measures and the participation of stakeholders in the decision making process are essential elements in developing effective strategies to deal with the ever-changing spatial and temporal patterns of landslide risk. A stakeholder-led policy process, however, can face many social and economic challenges. One of the most difficult is deciding between costly protection measures or relocating homes. Particularly in areas with high population density, protection works are often not built because of economic/environmental constraints or private interests of the local residents. At the same time it not always possible to relocate households even if the costs are deemed less than protecting them. These issues turned out to be crucial in a recent participatory process for selecting risk mitigation measures in the town of Nocera Inferiore, Southern Italy, which experienced a landslide in 2005 causing three fatalities. The paper reports on this process which was structured in a series of meetings with a group of selected residents and several parallel activities open to the public. The preparatory work included semi-structured interviews carried out with key local stakeholders and a public survey eliciting residents' views on landslide risk mitigation. After describing the background of the landslide risk management problem in Nocera Inferiore, the paper focuses on three packages of risk mitigation measures (each of them not exceeding a total cost of 7 million Euro, namely the available funds) and the key trade-offs that emerged during the meetings with the residents. The participants reached a unanimous consensus on fundamental priorities, i.e. the improvement of the warning system, the implementation of an integrated system of monitoring and territorial survey and the stabilization of the open slopes with naturalistic engineering works. Much more debate was devoted to the relocation of residents from the most endangered areas and/or the need to build passive structural works, especially on private properties. Notwithstanding the difficulties in reaching a shared "compromise solution" for risk mitigation, the results demonstrate the value of citizen participation in landslide risk mitigation decisions and highlight the role that participation can play in risk management more generally.
Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hirsch, R.L. (SAIC); Bezdek, Roger (MISI); Wendling, Robert (MISI)
The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.... The purpose of this analysis was to identify the critical issues surrounding the occurrence and mitigation of world oil production peaking. We simplified many of the complexities in an effort to provide a transparent analysis. Nevertheless, our study is neither simple nor brief. We recognize that when oil prices escalate dramatically, there will be demand and economic impacts that will alter our simplified assumptions. Consideration of those feedbacks will be a daunting task but one that should be undertaken. Our aim in this study is to-- • Summarize the difficulties of oil production forecasting; • Identify the fundamentals that show why world oil production peaking is such a unique challenge; • Show why mitigation will take a decade or more of intense effort; • Examine the potential economic effects of oil peaking; • Describe what might be accomplished under three example mitigation scenarios. • Stimulate serious discussion of the problem, suggest more definitive studies, and engender interest in timely action to mitigate its impacts.
Trying not to get burned: understanding homeowners' wildfire risk-mitigation behaviors.
Brenkert-Smith, Hannah; Champ, Patricia A; Flores, Nicholas
Three causes have been identified for the spiraling cost of wildfire suppression in the United States: climate change, fuel accumulation from past wildfire suppression, and development in fire-prone areas. Because little is likely to be performed to halt the effects of climate on wildfire risk, and because fuel-management budgets cannot keep pace with fuel accumulation let alone reverse it, changing the behaviors of existing and potential homeowners in fire-prone areas is the most promising approach to decreasing the cost of suppressing wildfires in the wildland-urban interface and increasing the odds of homes surviving wildfire events. Wildfire education efforts encourage homeowners to manage their property to decrease wildfire risk. Such programs may be more effective with a better understanding of the factors related to homeowners' decisions to undertake wildfire risk-reduction actions. In this study, we measured whether homeowners had implemented 12 wildfire risk-mitigation measures in 2 Colorado Front Range counties. We found that wildfire information received from local volunteer fire departments and county wildfire specialists, as well as talking with neighbors about wildfire, were positively associated with higher levels of mitigation. Firsthand experience in the form of preparing for or undertaking an evacuation was also associated with a higher level of mitigation. Finally, homeowners who perceived higher levels of wildfire risk on their property had undertaken higher levels of wildfire-risk mitigation on their property. PMID:23001246
Exponential Spectral Risk Measures
Dowd, Kevin; Cotter, John
Spectral risk measures are attractive risk measures as they allow the user to obtain risk measures that reflect their subjective risk-aversion. This paper examines spectral risk measures based on an exponential utility function, and finds that these risk measures have nice intuitive properties. It also discusses how they can be estimated using numerical quadrature methods, and how confidence intervals for them can be estimated using a parametric bootstrap. Illustrative resul...
Mitigating Environmental Risk Through Environmental Management Accounting?
Naufil Naseer
Environmental accounting system is relatively a new field for environmental reporting and performance evaluation of a firm, particularly in terms of social costs that the organization incur on the society. These costs represent an organization`s impacts on the environment and society, which may not be covered under normal accounting practices. The study with the help of an example tries to answer how environmental risk, an important aspect of environmental management can be addressed in envir...
Mitigating Environmental Risk Through Environmental Management Accounting?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Naufil Naseer
Full Text Available Environmental accounting system is relatively a new field for environmental reporting and performance evaluation of a firm, particularly in terms of social costs that the organization incur on the society. These costs represent an organization`s impacts on the environment and society, which may not be covered under normal accounting practices. The study with the help of an example tries to answer how environmental risk, an important aspect of environmental management can be addressed in environment.
Vrancea earthquakes. Specific actions to mitigate seismic risk
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Earthquakes have been known in Romania since Roman times, when Trajan's legionnaires began the colonization of the rich plains stretching from the Carpathian Mountains to the Danube River. Since readings from seismographic stations became available, after 1940, it has been established that the most frequent largest earthquakes arise from deep Vrancea sources at the bend of the Carpathians Earthquakes in the Carpathian-Pannonian region are confined to the crust, except for the Vrancea zone, where earthquakes with focal depth down to 200 km occur. For example, the ruptured area migrated in depth from 150 km to 180 km (November 10, 1940, Mw =7.7), from 90 to 110 km (March 4, 1977, Mw =7.4), from 130 to 150 km (August 30, 1986, Mw =7.1), and from 70 to 90 km (May 30, 1990, Mw =6.9). The depth interval between 110 km and 130 km has remained unruptured since 1802, October 26, when the strongest known earthquake occurred in this part of Central Europe. The magnitude is assumed to have been Mw =7.9 - 8.0, and this depth interval is a natural candidate for the next strong Vrancea event. The maximum intensity for strong deep Vrancea earthquakes is quite distant from the actual epicenter and greater than the epicentral intensity. For the 1977 strong earthquake (Mw =7.4), the estimated intensity at its Vrancea region epicenter was only VII (MMI scale), while some 170 km away, in the capital city of Bucharest, the ey, in the capital city of Bucharest, the estimated maximum intensity was IX1/2 -X (MMI). The intensely deforming Vrancea zone shows a quite enigmatic seismic pattern (peak ground accelerations/intensity one, characteristic response spectra with large periods of 1.5 seconds, no significant attenuations on Romanian territory, large amplifications away, etc.). While no country in the world is entirely safe, the lack of capacity to limit the impact of seismic hazards remains a major burden for all countries and while the world has witnessed an exponential increase in human and material losses due to natural disasters given by earthquakes, there is a need to reverse trends in seismic risk mitigation to future events. Main courses of specific action to mitigate the seismic risks from strong deep Vrancea earthquakes should be considered as key to future development projects, including: - Early warning system for industrial facilities; - Short and long term prediction program of strong Vrancea earthquakes; - Seismic hazard map of Romania; - Seismic microzonation of large populated cities; - Shake map; - Seismic tomography of dams for avoiding disasters. The quality of life and the security of infrastructure (including human services, civil and industrial structures, financial infrastructure, information transmission and processing systems) in every nation are increasingly vulnerable to disasters caused by events that have geological, atmospheric, hydrologic, and technological origins. As UN Secretary General Kofi Annan pointed out, 'Building a culture of prevention is not easy. While the costs of prevention have to be paid in the present, its benefits lie in a distant future'. In other words: Prevention pays off. This may not always become apparent immediately, but, in the long run, the benefits from prevention measures will always outweigh their costs by far. Romania is an earthquake prone area and these main specific actions are really contributing to seismic risk mitigation. These specific actions are provided for in Law nr. 372/March 18,2004 -'The National Program of Seismic Risk Management'. (authors)
Development of an environmental protecting and radon mitigating coating and measurements of its radon mitigating efficiency
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Objective: A series of measurements have been carried out to test the technical and environmental protective properties of a coating. Methods: By means of tests, laboratory and in site monitoring, the specifications, toxicity and radon mitigating efficiency of the coating were identified. Results: The technical specifications of the coating are up to the grade one of GB/T9756-1995. It is odourless and nontoxic. Its radon mitigating efficiency is over 80%, and is of long-term stability. Conclusion: The environmental protective and radon mitigating coating can be used as a mean of indoor radon mitigation, and can be applied widely
Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.
Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua
Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience. PMID:21177223
Strategy Guideline: Mitigation of Retrofit Risk Factors
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Berman, M.; Smith, P.; Porse, E.
The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI) is currently developing strategies designed to promote and achieve increased energy savings and promote upgrades in the residential retrofit sector. These strategies are targeted to retrofit program managers, retrofit contractors, policy makers, academic researchers, and non-governmental organizations. This report focuses on four key areas to promote home energy upgrades: fostering accurate energy savings projections; understanding consumer perceptions for energy savings; measuring energy savings, and ensuring quality control for retrofit installations.
Risk Mitigation in Triadic Network Configurations within a Servitized Context
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Raja, Jawwad; Roehrich, Jens
Purpose: This paper examines risk mitigation for a servitizing organisation and its supply network configuration. This is an area of research that has not been adequately explored to date within a servitization context. In particular, the paper examines triadic configurations using an agency perspective. Design/methodology/approach: An exploratory case study of a truck manufacturer and its supply network is conducted over a two year period. Data consists predominantly of semi-structured interviews, observations and workshops with the case organisation. Findings: The findings of the study indicate that behavior-based controls, combined with information, are a key contributory factor in mitigating risk within triadic network structures. Research limitations/implications: This research is limited to one in-depth case study, within the truck industry. Whilst this represents an appropriate approach given the exploratory nature of the study, there is a need for further empirical research across different industries. Originality/value: Theoretical insights are gleaned through the application of agency theory as a lens to understand risk mitigation within supply networks within the context of servitization.
Interventionist and participatory approaches to flood risk mitigation decisions: two case studies in the Italian Alps
Bianchizza, C.; Del Bianco, D.; Pellizzoni, L.; Scolobig, A.
Flood risk mitigation decisions pose key challenges not only from a technical but also from a social, economic and political viewpoint. There is an increasing demand for improving the quality of these processes by including different stakeholders - and especially by involving the local residents in the decision making process - and by guaranteeing the actual improvement of local social capacities during and after the decision making. In this paper we analyse two case studies of flood risk mitigation decisions, Malborghetto-Valbruna and Vipiteno-Sterzing, in the Italian Alps. In both of them, mitigation works have been completed or planned, yet following completely different approaches especially in terms of responses of residents and involvement of local authorities. In Malborghetto-Valbruna an 'interventionist' approach (i.e. leaning towards a top down/technocratic decision process) was used to make decisions after the flood event that affected the municipality in the year 2003. In Vipiteno-Sterzing, a 'participatory' approach (i.e. leaning towards a bottom-up/inclusive decision process) was applied: decisions about risk mitigation measures were made by submitting different projects to the local citizens and by involving them in the decision making process. The analysis of the two case studies presented in the paper is grounded on the results of two research projects. Structured and in-depth interviews, as well as questionnaire surveys were used to explore residents' and local authorities' orientations toward flood risk mitigation. Also a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) involving key stakeholders was used to better understand the characteristics of the communities and their perception of flood risk mitigation issues. The results highlight some key differences between interventionist and participatory approaches, together with some implications of their adoption in the local context. Strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches, as well as key challenges for the future are also discussed.
Mitigating Epidemics through Mobile Micro-measures
Kafsi, Mohamed; Maystre, Lucas; Yartseva, Lyudmila; Grossglauser, Matthias; Thiran, Patrick
Epidemics of infectious diseases are among the largest threats to the quality of life and the economic and social well-being of developing countries. The arsenal of measures against such epidemics is well-established, but costly and insufficient to mitigate their impact. In this paper, we argue that mobile technology adds a powerful weapon to this arsenal, because (a) mobile devices endow us with the unprecedented ability to measure and model the detailed behavioral patterns of the affected population, and (b) they enable the delivery of personalized behavioral recommendations to individuals in real time. We combine these two ideas and propose several strategies to generate such recommendations from mobility patterns. The goal of each strategy is a large reduction in infections, with a small impact on the normal course of daily life. We evaluate these strategies over the Orange D4D dataset and show the benefit of mobile micro-measures, even if only a fraction of the population participates. These preliminary ...
Kinematic analysis for the implementation of landslide mitigation measures
Delmonaco, Giuseppe; Margottini, Claudio; Spizzichino, Daniele
The present work is finalised at the implementation of a landslide risk mitigation master plan of the ancient citadel of Machu Picchu. After the warning launched in March 2001, by the scientific community on potential collapse of the citadel from a near-disastrous landslide event different studies have been promoted to reconstruct landslide activity and suggest landslide risk mitigation measures for the protection and conservation of Machu Picchu cultural heritage. A site-scale analysis has been implemented following the application and integration of geomechanical classifications, ambient noise measurements and structural and kinematical analysis. The geology of the area is characterized by granitoid bodies that had been emplaced in the axial zones of the main rift system that are now exposed at the highest altitudes, together with country rocks (Precambrian and Lower Paleozoic metamorphics) originally constituting the rift 'roots'. The bedrock of the Inca citadel of Machu Picchu is mainly composed by granite and subordinately granodiorite. This is mainly located in the lower part of the slopes. Superficially, the granite is jointed in blocks with variable dimensions, promoted by local structural setting. Single blocks vary from 10-1 to about 200 m3. Soil cover, widely outcropping in the area, is mainly composed by individual blocks and subordinately by coarse materials originated by chemical and physical weathering of minerals. Regional tectonic uplift and structural setting rule the general morphological features of the area and as a consequence, landslide type and evolution. Rock falls, rock slides, debris flows and debris slides are the main landslide typologies affecting the citadel slopes. In the last mission in May 2009, elastic and deformation rock parameters have been collected using a passive seismic innovative technique based on natural microtremor measurements and geostructural scan lines elaboration. A landslide zoning of the citadel has been developed by comparing GSI classification, geomorphological field survey and kinematical analysis. More in detail, areas potentially prone to rock fall and toppling have been discriminated with respect to those kinematically affected by planar sliding, and a map on potential landslide types has been implemented. This map has been used to develop a preliminary master plan on landslide risk mitigation works that take into account a vulnerability analysis previously undertaken for each single archaeological structure. Finally, a set of low impact structural measures have been designed as a function of rock mass quality and site landslide potential activity suggesting priorities in the light of recent development and exploitation by local authorities of new areas, potentially at risk, for tourism.
Heat exchanger fouling: Prediction, measurement, and mitigation
The US Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Industrial Programs (OIP) sponsors the development of innovative heat exchange systems. Fouling is a major and persistent cost associated with most industrial heat exchangers and nationally wastes an estimated 2.9 Quads per year. To predict and control fouling, three OIP projects are currently exploring heat exchanger fouling in specific industrial applications. A fouling probe has been developed to determine empirically the fouling potential of an industrial gas stream and to derive the fouling thermal resistance. The probe is a hollow metal cylinder capable of measuring the average heat flux along the length of the tube. The local heat flux is also measured by a heat flux meter embedded in the probe wall. The fouling probe has been successfully tested in the laboratory at flue gas temperatures up to 2200 F and a local heat flux up to 41,000 BTU/hr sq ft. The probe has been field tested at a coal-fired boiler plant. Future tests at a municipal waste incinerator are planned. Two other projects study enhanced heat exchanger tubes, specifically the effect of enhanced surface geometries on the tube bundle performance. Both projects include fouling in a liquid heat transfer fluid. Identifying and quantifying the factors affecting fouling in these enhanced heat transfer tubes will lead to techniques to mitigate fouling.
Risk mapping and tsunami mitigation in Gunungkidul area, Yogyakarta
Mardiatno, Djati; Sunarto, WF, Lies Rahayu; Saptadi, Gatot; Ayuningtyas, Efrinda Ari
Coastal area of Gunungkidul Regency is one of the areas prone to tsunami in Indonesia. In contrary, currently, this area is very intensively developed as one of the favourite tourism destination. This paper is aimed at explaining tsunami risk and a mitigation type in Gunungkidul Area, Yogyakarta. Digital elevation model (DEM) and coastal morphology were used to generate tsunami hazard map. Vulnerability was analysed by utilizing land use data. Information from previous studies (e.g. from GTZ) were also considered for analysis. Tsunami risk was classified into three classes, i.e. high risk, medium risk, and low risk and visualized in the form of tsunami risk map. Tsunami risk map is a tool which can be used as disaster reduction instrument, such as for evacuation routes planning. Based on the preliminary results of this research, it is clear that tsunami risk in this area is varied depend on the morphological condition of the location. There are five coastal area selected as the location, i.e. Ngrenehan, Baron, Sepanjang, PulangSawal, and Sadeng. All locations have the high risk zone to tsunami, especially for bay area. Evacuation routes were generated for all locations by considering the local landscape condition. There are several differences of evacuation ways for each location.
The report gives results of a determination of the long-term performance of radon mitigation systems installed in U. S. EPA research schools: radon measurements were conducted in 14 schools that had been mitigated between 1988 and 1991. he measurements were made between February ...
Managing U.S. climate risk through mitigation: Insights from the American Climate Prospectus
Kopp, R. E., III; Hsiang, S. M.; Houser, T.; Larsen, K.; Rasmussen, D. M., Jr.; Jina, A.; Rising, J.; Delgado, M.; Mohan, S.; Muir-Wood, R.; Wilson, P. S.
The American Climate Prospectus (ACP), the technical analysis underlying the Risky Business project, quantitatively assessed the economic risks posed to the United States by six categories of climate change impacts: crop yield, energy demand, coastal storm damage, criminal activity, labor productivity, and mortality [1]. At a national level, measured by impact on gross domestic product, increased mortality and decreased labor productivity pose the large risks, followed by increased energy demand and coastal damages. Changes in crop yield and crime have smaller impacts. The ACP was not intended to conduct a benefit-cost analysis of climate change mitigation. It assessed the economic consequences of future impacts on an economy with a structure equivalent to that of the current economy, not accounting for socio-economic development and adaptation, and did not assess the cost of mitigation. One of its primary goals was to inform adaptation decisions that are conventionally considered 'endogenous' in economic analyses of climate change. Nonetheless, its results provide insight into the potential of mitigation to manage climate risk. Differences between RCP 8.5 (moderately-high business-as-usual emissions), RCP 4.5 (moderate mitigation) and RCP 2.6 (extremely strong mitigation) are not apparent until mid-century and become significant only late in the century. For all impacts except coastal damages, mitigation significantly reduces uncertainty in late-century impact estimates. Nationally, mitigation significantly and monotonically reduces median projected labor productivity losses and violent crime. Switching from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 also significantly reduces median projections of mortality and energy demand, but the domestic value to the U.S. of further mitigation to RCP 2.6 is less clear. The marginal benefits decline in part because some regions of the country (especially the Northwest) may experience increased crop yields, reduced mortality, and reduced energy demand under all RCPs. Because of the slow response time of sea level to change in emissions, the coastal risk reduction in the current century from mitigation is least clear. References: [1] T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate Prospectus, www.climateprospectus.org.
Optimum cooling of data centers application of risk assessment and mitigation techniques
Dai, Jun; Das, Diganta; Pecht, Michael G
This book provides data center designers and operators with methods by which to assess and mitigate the risks associated with utilization of optimum cooling solutions. The goal is to provide readers with sufficient knowledge to implement measures such as free air cooling or direct liquid immersion cooling properly, or combination of existing and emerging cooling technologies in data centers, base stations, and server farms. This book also: Discusses various telecommunication infrastructures, with an emphasis on data centers and base stations Covers the most commonly known energy and power management techniques, as well as emerging cooling solutions for data centers Describes the risks to the electronic equipment fitted in these installations and the methods of risk mitigation Devotes a particular focus to an up-to-date review of the emerging cooling methods (such as free air cooling and direct liquid immersion cooling) and tools and best practices for designers, technology developers, installation operators...
Mitigation technologies and measures in energy sector of Kazakstan
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pilifosova, O.; Danchuk, D.; Temertekov, T. [and others
An important commitment in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is to conduct mitigation analysis and to communicate climate change measures and policies. In major part reducing CO{sub 2} as well as the other greenhouse gas emissions in Kazakstan, can be a side-product of measures addressed to increasing energy efficiency. Since such measures are very important for the national economy, mitigation strategies in the energy sector of Kazakstan are directly connected with the general national strategy of the energy sector development. This paper outlines the main measures and technologies in energy sector of Kazakstan which can lead to GHG emissions reduction and presents the results of current mitigation assessment. The mitigation analysis is addressed to energy production sector. A baseline and six mitigation scenarios were developed to evaluate the most attractive mitigation options, focusing on specific technologies which have been already included in sustainable energy programs. According to the baseline projection, Kazakstan`s CO{sub 2} emissions will not exceed their 1990 level until 2005. The potential for CO{sub 2} emission reduction is estimated to be about 11 % of the base line emission level by the end of considered period (in 2020). The main mitigation options in the energy production sector in terms of mitigation potential and technical and economical feasibility include rehabilitation of thermal power plants aimed to increasing efficiency, use of nuclear energy and further expansion in the use of hydro energy based on small hydroelectric power plants.
Risks and risks mitigations in the supply chain of mangosteen: a case study
Astuti, R.; Arkeman, M. M. Y.; Poerwanto, R.; Meuwissen, M. P. M.
Mangosteen (Garcinia mangostana L.) is the highly demanded fruit for export commodity from Indonesia. The biggest mangosteen production center in Indonesia is West Java Province. The development of the mangosteen supply chain in Indonesia, particularly in West Java Province is heavily affected by uncertain potential risks for the chain. This paper identifies potential risks of the supply chain and studies the interrelationships between strategies for mitigating those risks. Fuzzy Anal...
The last mile: earthquake risk mitigation assistance in developing countries.
Shah, Haresh C
Over the past few decades, we have seen many joint programmes between developed countries and developing countries to help the latter in managing their earthquake risks. These programmes span the whole spectrum of disciplines from seismology and geology to engineering, social science and economics. Many of these programmes have been effective in raising awareness, in urging governments to work towards risk reduction and in spawning an 'industry' of disaster management in many of the developing countries. However, even as these efforts proceed, we have seen death and destruction due to earthquake after earthquake in developing countries, strongly suggesting that the problems for which those assistance programmes were developed are not so effective. Therefore, it is natural to ask why this is happening. Are the assistance programmes reaching the right people? Maybe we are reaching the right people and doing the right type of things in these countries, but we have not allowed enough time for our actions to take effect. Maybe we are reaching the right people and doing the right actions for most of the miles we need to cover in helping communities mitigate their earthquake risks. However, the issue could be whether we are reaching people who represent the 'last mile' on this pathway. Here, I explore whether the work that many organizations and countries have done towards earthquake risk reduction over the past few decades in developing countries is appropriate or not. Why do we keep seeing the catastrophes of Sumatra, Chi Chi, Bhuj, Turkey, Algeria and on and on? I will articulate what I think is the problem. My contribution is intended to generate discussions, self-analysis of our approaches, what we are doing right and what we are not doing right. Hopefully such discussions will result in a better connection between the last mile and programmes around the world which are working towards earthquake risk mitigation. PMID:16844655
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Woharika Kaumudi Weerasinghe
Full Text Available Safety measures against the future disaster risk are considered as the main aspect of post disaster reconstructions. The majority of post-disaster villages/settlements and due projects on Sri Lankan coastline are apparently lacking behind the proper safety measures and adequate evacuation procedures. Therefore the immediate necessities of proper safety measures have to be emphasized in order to mitigate future tsunami risks. This paper introduces a number of post disaster coastal villages/settlements, which are in future coastline hazard risk, mainly in a future tsunami event. These include their location risk, land uses and housing designs defects and shortcomings of other safety measures. Furthermore few tsunami risk mitigation measures through land use planning strategies, which could be applied more easily in community level, are introduced. In addition to those the strategic development methods of functional networks of evacuation routes and shelters in different topographies are examined.
Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap. Product - Risk Handling Strategy. STEP 4 - Residual Risk Work off The risk handling strategy is entered into the Project Risk Allocation Tool (PRAT) to analyze each task for its ability to reduce risk. The result is risk-informed task prioritization. The risk handling strategy is captured in the Risk Management System, a relational database that provides conventional database utility, including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. The tool's Hierarchy Tree allows visualization and analyses of complex relationships between risks, risk mitigation tasks, design needs, and PIRTs. Product - Project Risk Allocation Tool and Risk Management System which depict project plan to reduce risk and current progress in doing so.
Optimal CO2 mitigation under damage risk valuation
Crost, Benjamin; Traeger, Christian P.
The current generation has to set mitigation policy under uncertainty about the economic consequences of climate change. This uncertainty governs both the level of damages for a given level of warming, and the steepness of the increase in damage per warming degree. Our model of climate and the economy is a stochastic version of a model employed in assessing the US Social Cost of Carbon (DICE). We compute the optimal carbon taxes and CO2 abatement levels that maximize welfare from economic consumption over time under different risk states. In accordance with recent developments in finance, we separate preferences about time and risk to improve the model's calibration of welfare to observed market interest. We show that introducing the modern asset pricing framework doubles optimal abatement and carbon taxation. Uncertainty over the level of damages at a given temperature increase can result in a slight increase of optimal emissions as compared to using expected damages. In contrast, uncertainty governing the steepness of the damage increase in temperature results in a substantially higher level of optimal mitigation.
Reservoir souring: it is all about risk mitigation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kuijvenhoven, Cor [Shell (Canada)
The presence of H2S in produced fluid can be due to various sources, among which are heat/rock interaction and leaks from other reservoirs. This paper discusses the reasons, risk assessment and tools for mitigating reservoir souring. Uncontrolled microorganism activity can cause a sweet reservoir (without H2S) to become sour (production of H2S). The development of bacteria is one of the main causes of reservoir souring in unconventional gas fields. It is difficult to predict souring in seawater due to produced water re-injection (PWRI). Risk assessment and modeling techniques for reservoir souring are discussed. Some of the factors controlling H2S production include injection location, presence of scavenging minerals and biogenic souring. Mitigation methods such as biocide treatment of injection water, sulphate removal from seawater, microbial monitoring techniques such as the molecular microbiology method (MMM), and enumeration by serial dilution are explained. In summary, it can be concluded that reservoir souring is a long-term problem and should be assessed at the beginning of operations.
Contractual strategies for risk mitigation : developing wind power projects in emerging markets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This presentation outlined the risks associated with wind projects in emerging markets. The risks are similar to those of any wind project and include risks associated with construction, regulations, markets, technology, operations, payment, politics, and wind resource. This presentation described the underlying conditions for each of those risks and presented a structure for wind projects that would mitigate these risks. In emerging markets, regulatory risks may be more difficult to quantify and there is likely to be an increase in payment risk, political risk and legal risk. The role of Concessions or Implementation Agreements in mitigating the risk was discussed
Fish habitat mitigation measures for hydrotechnical projects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
In recent years, the identification and mitigation of environmental impacts of hydrotechnical projects, particularly on fish and fish habitats, have become a major component of project planning and design. Potential impacts to fish and fish habitat may include increased fish mortality, decreased species diversity, and loss or decreases in fish production due to loss of habitat or alteration of its suitability. These impacts arise from flooding of riverine habitat, alteration of flow quantity and distribution, changes in morphology, and alteration of water quality, including suspended sediments, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and mercury. The results of a study for the Canadian Federal Department of Fisheries and Oceans Central and Arctic Region, examining fish habitat mitigation techniques for their applicability to hydrotechnical projects in Canada are summarized. The requirements for achievement and verification of the no net loss policy for a project are discussed. 10 refs., 2 tabs
Woharika Kaumudi Weerasinghe; Akihiko Hokugo; Yuko Ikenouchi
Safety measures against the future disaster risk are considered as the main aspect of post disaster reconstructions. The majority of post-disaster villages/settlements and due projects on Sri Lankan coastline are apparently lacking behind the proper safety measures and adequate evacuation procedures. Therefore the immediate necessities of proper safety measures have to be emphasized in order to mitigate future tsunami risks. This paper introduces a number of post disaster coastal villages/set...
Measurement method of radon mitigation efficiency for interior wall paint
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
To develop a effective measurement method of radon mitigation efficiency for interior wall paint. By using a local static method, the average radon flux rate of a measured material surface during the period of monitoring can be gotten. The method has been developed using organic glass to make radon cumulation chamber, lint board with a single smooth surface to make samples, PCMR-1 continuous radon monitor and GD-LI gas-through solid radon source. The same measurement conditions can be realized easily and the measurement results can be compared very well. The method can meet the need of radon mitigation efficiency measurement for interior wall paint
Mitigating Thermal Runaway Risk in Lithium Ion Batteries
Darcy, Eric; Jeevarajan, Judy; Russell, Samuel
The JSC/NESC team has successfully demonstrated Thermal Runaway (TR) risk reduction in a lithium ion battery for human space flight by developing and implementing verifiable design features which interrupt energy transfer between adjacent electrochemical cells. Conventional lithium ion (li-Ion) batteries can fail catastrophically as a result of a single cell going into thermal runaway. Thermal runaway results when an internal component fails to separate electrode materials leading to localized heating and complete combustion of the lithium ion cell. Previously, the greatest control to minimize the probability of cell failure was individual cell screening. Combining thermal runaway propagation mitigation design features with a comprehensive screening program reduces both the probability, and the severity, of a single cell failure.
Vrancea earthquakes. Courses for specific actions to mitigate seismic risk
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Earthquakes in the Carpathian-Pannonian region are confined to the crust, except the Vrancea zone, where earthquakes with focal depth down to 200 Km occur. For example, the ruptured area migrated from 150 km to 180 km (November 10,1940, Mw = 7.7) from 90 km to 110 km (March 4, 1977, Mw 7.4), from 130 km to 150 km (August 30, 1986, Mw = 7.1) and from 70 km to 90 km (May 30, 1990, Mw = 6.9) depth. The depth interval between 110 km and 130 km remains not ruptured since 1802, October 26, when it was the strongest earthquake occurred in this part of Central Europe. The magnitude is assumed to be Mw = 7.9 - 8.0 and this depth interval is a natural candidate for the next strong Vrancea event. While no country in the world is entirely safe, the lack of capacity to limit the impact of seismic hazards remains a major burden for all countries and while the world has witnessed an exponential increase in human and material losses due to natural disasters given by earthquakes, there is a need to reverse trends in seismic risk mitigation to future events. Main courses for specific actions to mitigate the seismic risk given by strong deep Vrancea earthquakes should be considered as key for development actions: - Early warning system for industrial facilities. Early warning is more than a technological instrument to detect, monitor and submit warnings. It should become part of a management information system for decision-making in information system for decision-making in the context of national institutional frameworks for disaster management and part of national and local strategies and programmers for risk mitigation; - Prediction program of Vrancea strong earthquakes of short and long term; - Hazard seismic map of Romania. The wrong assessment of the seismic hazard can lead to dramatic situations as those from Bucharest or Kobe. Before the 1977 Vrancea earthquake, the city of Bucharest was designed to intensity I = VII (MMI) and the real intensity was I = IX1/2-X (MMI); - Seismic microzonation of large populated cities. There are zones in Bucharest which have fundamental periods of the soil and geological structures very different and during August 30, 1986 Vrancea earthquake the variations of the recorded peak accelerations were from simple to triple ones; - Shake map. This shake map now under completion will allow us rapidly portray, in real time, the extent of shaking during of earthquake in a simplified form suitable for immediate post-earthquake decision-making; - Seismic tomography of dams for avoiding catastrophes. There are applications of seismic tomography and in general of seismic imaging like methods of investigation for mitigation of earthquake effects. (authors)
An integrated approach to risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN threat
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
CBRN mass casualty events threat mitigation remains today the highest international priority. Although significant progress has been made, the national security requirements for efforts to combat Weapons of Mass Destruction and Weapons of Mass Disruption will be of the highest national priority in the near future. An integration of a number of approaches is essential in the risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN treat. Preparedness measures and procedures, engineering, science and technology, policy, medical, and emergency response are essential to reduce the threat from the proliferation and use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Improved coordination between international, public and private security entities is also essential task to hopefully prevent the terrorist attacks. In this lecture, it will be presented very important scientific approach to risk assessment of potential use of nuclear, radiological, biological or chemical weapons in terrorist actions. An integrated approach for mitigating the CBRN threat, crisis management and preparedness measures for prevention and reduction of potential consequences, will be presented.(author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Full Text Available The objective of the paper is to propose a methodology for assessing water constructions, which will allow impact assessment of water constructions on the environment and hence select the best option for the permission process. The result is "Guideline for environmental impact assessment of flood protection object", which uses the method of UMRA (universal matrix of risk analysis, which is one of the methods of risk analysis proposed not only to enhance the transparency and sensitivity of the evaluation process, but also to cope with the requirements of the EIA system in the Slovakia and Europe Union.
Human perception of radon risk and radon mitigation: some remarks.
Neznal, Martin; Neznal, Matej
The Radon program in the Czech Republic has a relatively long and rich history. Procedures, which enable to evaluate the risk of radon penetration from the ground, to protect new buildings, to find existing buildings with elevated indoor radon levels and to realise remedial measures in such buildings, have been developed, published and tested. In some cases, the whole system may fail due to psychological or sociological reasons. Three types of problems (conflicts) will be presented: human behaviour affecting measurement results, conflict between individual and 'all-society' points of view, interpretation of radon risk itself. PMID:18407973
Human perception of radon risk and radon mitigation: Some remarks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The Radon program in the Czech Republic has a relatively long and rich history. Procedures, which enable to evaluate the risk of radon penetration from the ground, to protect new buildings, to find existing buildings with elevated indoor radon levels and to realise remedial measures in such buildings, have been developed, published and tested. In some cases, the whole system may fail due to psychological or sociological reasons. Three types of problems (conflicts) will be presented: human behaviour affecting measurement results, conflict between individual and 'all-society' points of view, interpretation of radon risk itself. (authors)
Measurable, Reportable and Verifiable Mitigation Actions and Support
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
The 2007 Bali Action Plan refers to 'measurable, reportable and verifiable' (MRV) as an important part of the international process intended to deliver concrete national actions to address climate change. Gaps and weaknesses in current provisions to measure, report and verify greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, mitigation actions and support have led to proposals for an enhanced framework for MRV in a post-2012 agreement. Such a framework could facilitate strategic and cost-effective decision-making; the implementation of mitigation actions; and the generation of transparent and comparable information.
Relevance of Fukushima Nuclear Accident to India: Nuclear Radiation Risk and Interventions to Mitigate Adverse Fallout
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yadav Kapil, Varshney Neha, Aslesh OP, Karmakar MG, Pandav Chandrakant S
Full Text Available The environmental radiation release from Fukushima nuclear power following tsunami in Japan has once again highlighted the omnipotent risk of radiation injury in the today's world. India is at a real risk from radiation fallout both due to nuclear power plant accidents and nuclear warfare threat. The risk from nuclear radiation accident in India is further increased by the region being endemic for iodine deficiency as adverse effects following nuclear radiation fallout like thyroid cancer is significantly higher in iodine deficient populations .There is need to institute disaster preparedness measures to mitigate the damage in case of a nuclear accident. Interventions to control adverse fallout of nuclear radiation include evacuation, sheltering and food controls as well as iodine prophylaxis
Can marriage education mitigate the risks associated with premarital cohabitation?
Rhoades, Galena K; Stanley, Scott M; Markman, Howard J; Allen, Elizabeth S
This study tested whether relationship education (i.e., the Prevention and Relationship Education Program; PREP) can mitigate the risk of having cohabited before making a mutual commitment to marry (i.e., "precommitment cohabitation") for marital distress and divorce. Using data from a study of PREP for married couples in the U.S. Army (N = 662 couples), we found that there was a significant association between precommitment cohabitation and lower marital satisfaction and dedication before random assignment to intervention. After intervention, this precommitment cohabitation effect was only apparent in the control group. Specifically, significant interactions between intervention condition and cohabitation history indicated that for the control group, but not the PREP group, precommitment cohabitation was associated with lower dedication as well as declines in marital satisfaction and increases in negative communication over time. Furthermore, those with precommitment cohabitation were more likely to divorce by the 2-year follow-up only in the control group; there were no differences in divorce based on premarital cohabitation history in the PREP group. These findings are discussed in light of current research on cohabitation and relationship education; potential implications are also considered. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:25938709
GHG emission mitigation measures and technologies in the Czech Republic
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tichy, M. [Energy Efficiency Center, Prague (Czech Republic)
The paper presents a short overview of main results in two fields: projection of GHG emission from energy sector in the Czech Republic and assessment of technologies and options for GHG mitigation. The last part presents an overview of measures that were prepared for potential inclusion to the Czech Climate Change Action Plan.
Priority mitigation measures in non-energy sector in Kazakstan
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mizina, S.V.; Pilifosova, O.V.; Gossen, E.F.
Fulfilling the Commitments on UN FCCC through the U.S. Country Studies Program, Kazakstan has developed the national GHG Inventory, vulnerability and adaptation assessment and estimated the possibility of mitigation measures in certain sectors. Next step is developing National Climate Change Action Plan. That process includes such major steps as setting priorities in mitigation measures and technologies, their comprehensive evaluation, preparation implementation strategies, developing the procedure of incorporation of the National Action Plan into other development plans and programs. This paper presents programs and measures that can reduce GHG emissions in non-energy sector. Measures in land-use change and forestry, agriculture and coal mining are considered. Current situation in non-energy sector of Kazakstan is discussed. The amount of GHG emissions reduction and cost analysis presented in this paper was developed with the use of IPCC recommendations.
Academy of Program/Project & Engineering Leadership Orbital Debris Management and Risk Mitigation
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The NASA Academy of Program/Project & Engineering Leadership (APPEL) is excited to announce the public release of Orbital Debris Management and Risk Mitigation,...
Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city
Serre, D.; Barroca, B.
Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city Bruno Barroca1, Damien Serre2 1Laboratory of Urban Engineering, Environment and Building (L G U E H) - Université de Marne-la-Vallée - Pôle Ville, 5, Bd Descartes - Bâtiment Lavoisier - 77454 Marne la Vallée Cedex 2 - France 2City of Paris Engineering School, Construction - Environment Department, 15 rue Fénelon, 75010 Paris, France In France, as in Europe and more generally throughout the world, river floods have been increasing in frequency and severity over the last ten years, and there are more instances of rivers bursting their banks, aggravating the impact of the flooding of areas supposedly protected by flood defenses. Despite efforts made to well maintain the flood defense assets, we often observe flood defense failures leading to finally increase flood risk in protected area during major flood events. Furthermore, flood forecasting models, although they benefit continuous improvements, remain partly inaccurate due to uncertainties populated all along data calculation processes. These circumstances obliged stakeholders and the scientific communities to manage flood risk by integrating new concepts like stakes management, vulnerability assessments and more recently urban resilience development. Definitively, the goal is to reduce flood risk by managing of course flood defenses and improving flood forecasting models, but also stakes and vulnerability of flooded areas to achieve urban resilience face to flood events. Vulnerability to flood is essentially concentrated in urban areas. Assessing vulnerability of a city is very difficult. Indeed, urban area is a complex system composed by a sum of technical sub-systems as complex as the urban area itself. Assessing city vulnerability consists in talking into account each sub system vulnerability and integrating all direct and indirect impacts generally depending from city shape and city spatial organization. At this time, although some research activities have been undertaken, there are no specific methods and tools to assess flood vulnerability at the scale of the city. Indeed, by studying literature we can list some vulnerability indicators and a few Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. But generally indicators and GIS are not developed specifically at the city scale: often a regional scale is used. Analyzing vulnerability at this scale needs more accurate and formalized indicators and GIS tools. The second limit of existing GIS is temporal: even if vulnerability could be assessed and localized through GIS, such tools cannot assist city managers in their decision to efficiency recover after a severe flood event. Due to scale and temporal limits, methods and tools available to assess urban vulnerability need large improvements. Talking into account all these considerations and limits, our research is focusing on: • vulnerability indicators design; • recovery scenarios design; • GIS for city vulnerability assessment and recovery scenarios. Dealing with vulnerability indicators, the goal is to design a set of indicators of city sub systems. Sub systems are seen like assets of high value and complex and interdependent infrastructure networks (i.e. power supplies, communications, water, transport etc.). The infrastructure networks are critical for the continuity of economic activities as well as for the people's basic living needs. Their availability is also required for fast and effective recovery after flood disasters. The severity of flood damage therefore largely depends on the degree that both high value assets and critical urban infrastructure are affected, either directly or indirectly. To face the challenge of designing indicators, a functional model of the city system (and sub systems) has to be built to analyze the system response to flood solicitation. Then, a coherent and an efficient set of vulnerability of indicators could be built up. With such methods city stakeholders will be informed on how and how much their systems are vulnerable. It is a first level of inform
Implementation of equity in resource allocation for regional earthquake risk mitigation using two-stage stochastic programming.
Zolfaghari, Mohammad R; Peyghaleh, Elnaz
This article presents a new methodology to implement the concept of equity in regional earthquake risk mitigation programs using an optimization framework. It presents a framework that could be used by decisionmakers (government and authorities) to structure budget allocation strategy toward different seismic risk mitigation measures, i.e., structural retrofitting for different building structural types in different locations and planning horizons. A two-stage stochastic model is developed here to seek optimal mitigation measures based on minimizing mitigation expenditures, reconstruction expenditures, and especially large losses in highly seismically active countries. To consider fairness in the distribution of financial resources among different groups of people, the equity concept is incorporated using constraints in model formulation. These constraints limit inequity to the user-defined level to achieve the equity-efficiency tradeoff in the decision-making process. To present practical application of the proposed model, it is applied to a pilot area in Tehran, the capital city of Iran. Building stocks, structural vulnerability functions, and regional seismic hazard characteristics are incorporated to compile a probabilistic seismic risk model for the pilot area. Results illustrate the variation of mitigation expenditures by location and structural type for buildings. These expenditures are sensitive to the amount of available budget and equity consideration for the constant risk aversion. Most significantly, equity is more easily achieved if the budget is unlimited. Conversely, increasing equity where the budget is limited decreases the efficiency. The risk-return tradeoff, equity-reconstruction expenditures tradeoff, and variation of per-capita expected earthquake loss in different income classes are also presented. PMID:25676412
Coherent measurement of factor risks
Cherny, Alexander S.; Madan, Dilip B.
We propose a new procedure for the risk measurement of large portfolios. It employs the following objects as the building blocks: - coherent risk measures introduced by Artzner, Delbaen, Eber, and Heath; - factor risk measures introduced in this paper, which assess the risks driven by particular factors like the price of oil, S&P500 index, or the credit spread; - risk contributions and factor risk contributions, which provide a coherent alternative to the sensitivity coeffic...
Power Outage, Business Continuity and Businesses' Choices of Power Outage Mitigation Measures
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ali Asgary
Full Text Available Problem statement: Power outage has been mentioned as one of the most experienced and perceived risks by various types of businesses and organizations. Thus, reducing the impacts of power outage has become a key agenda in business continuity planning. Back-up or stand-by generators are among the most well known measures taken by power consumers to tackle the power outage problem. Approach: A survey was conducted to understand various aspects of power outage and the impacts of power outrage on businesses. In addition a choice experiment method was used to derive businesses? preferences for different power outage mitigation measures that would have a range of prices, space requirements, air and noise pollution as well as mobility attributes using a sample of Canadian businesses located in the . Sample was drawn from businesses operating in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA and surrounding communities in Ontario, Canada. Results: It was found that majority of businesses have experienced and unconvinced by power outage and consider it to be a major risk to their operations. Production loss, data loss, damage to equipment and loss of lighting are the most significant sources for inconveniences caused by the power outages. It was found that a considerable number of businesses have not taken appropriate measures to mitigate this risk. Estimations from the responses revealed that sample businesses had a positive willingness to pay for power outage reduction and that businesses prefer power outage mitigation measures that are least costly, have low levels of air and noise pollution and occupy smaller spaces respectively. Conclusion: An uninterrupted power supply is an important element of business continuity in today?s business world. Although many businesses are not fully prepared against power outages, they are willing to pay for low cost and low pollution power outage mitigation measures.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Heje Pedersen, Lasse
We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases with the institution's leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system's loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are "taxed" based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads.
40 CFR 93.163 - Timing of offsets and mitigation measures.
... Timing of offsets and mitigation measures. 93.163 Section 93.163 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION...Actions to State or Federal Implementation Plans § 93.163 Timing of offsets and mitigation measures....
Risk Measures and Nonlinear Expectations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zengjing Chen
Full Text Available Coherent and convex risk measures, Choquet expectation and Peng's g-expectation are all generalizations of mathematical expectation. All have been widely used to assess financial riskiness under uncertainty. In this paper, we investigate differences amongst these risk measures and expectations. For this purpose, we constrain our attention of coherent and convex risk measures, and Choquet expectation to the domain of g-expectation. Some differences among coherent and convex risk measures and Choquet expectations are accounted for in the framework of g-expectations. We show that in the family of convex risk measures, only coherent risk measures satisfy Jensen's inequality. In mathematical finance, risk measures and Choquet expectations are typically used in the pricing of contingent claims over families of measures. The different risk measures will typically yield different pricing. In this paper, we show that the coherent pricing is always less than the corresponding Choquet pricing. This property and inequality fails in general when one uses pricing by convex risk measures. We also discuss the relation between static risk measure and dynamic risk measure in the framework of g-expectations. We show that if g-expectations yield coherent (convex risk measures then the corresponding conditional g-expectations or equivalently the dynamic risk measure is also coherent (convex. To prove these results, we establish a new converse of the comparison theorem of g-expectations.
Risk mitigation in the implementation of AMTs: A guiding framework for future
Bhaskar Nagar; Tilak Raj
The fast industrial development increases different types of risks for the industries. Many risk factors are inherent in the implementation of advanced manufacturing technologies (AMTs). Industries are developing methodologies for risk prevention and protection. The present research focuses to identify various risks that could influence the implementation of AMTs, and develop a framework to mitigate them. For this framework, interpretive structural modeling(ISM) has been used to depict the re...
Risk mitigation strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
A basic requirement for ITER equipment to meet is a high level of reliability, because ITER operation time is precious and radioactive operation leaves limited scope for repair. In order to reduce the risk of failure during ITER operation an effective risk mitigation strategy is necessary. This paper presents such strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher (ECUPL). A preliminary ECUPL risk analysis identifies possible failure modes. A probabilistic risk assessment quantifies the risk of failure using a 4 x 4 impact-likelihood matrix. Impact is quantified through technical, cost and schedule elements. Likelihood depends on the risk mitigation strategy adopted. A cost benefit analysis determines the most cost effective risk mitigation strategy. An essential element in risk mitigation is the testing of equipment prior to installation on the ITER machine. This paper argues the need for low- and highpower millimetre wave tests carried out on the fully assembled ECUPL. It presents a conceptual design for a dedicated on-site test bed that can handle 2 of 8 microwave beams at 2 MW long pulse operation.
Meteorological Hazard Assessment and Risk Mitigation in Rwanda.
Nduwayezu, Emmanuel; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Bugnon, Pierre-Charles; Nsengiyumva, Jean-Baptiste; Horton, Pascal; Derron, Marc-Henri
Between 10 and 13 April 2012, heavy rains hit sectors adjacent to the Vulcanoes National Park (Musanze District in the Northern Province and Nyabihu and Rubavu Districts in the Western Province of RWANDA), causing floods that affected about 11,000 persons. Flooding caused deaths and injuries among the affected population, and extensive damage to houses and properties. 348 houses were destroyed and 446 were partially damaged or have been underwater for several days. Families were forced to leave their flooded homes and seek temporal accommodation with their neighbors, often in overcrowded places. Along the West-northern border of RWANDA, Virunga mountain range consists of 6 major volcanoes. Mount Karisimbi is the highest volcano at 4507m. The oldest mountain is mount Sabyinyo which rises 3634m. The hydraulic network in Musanze District is formed by temporary torrents and permanent watercourses. Torrents surge during strong storms, and are provoked by water coming downhill from the volcanoes, some 20 km away. This area is periodically affected by flooding and landslides because of heavy rain (Rwanda has 2 rainy seasons from February to April and from September to November each year in general and 2 dry seasons) striking the Volcano National Park. Rain water creates big water channels (in already known torrents or new ones) that impact communities, agricultural soils and crop yields. This project aims at identifying hazardous and risky areas by producing susceptibility maps for floods, debris flow and landslides over this sector. Susceptibility maps are being drawn using field observations, during and after the 2012 events, and an empirical model of propagation for regional susceptibility assessments of debris flows (Flow-R). Input data are 10m and 30m resolution DEMs, satellite images, hydrographic network, and some information on geological substratum and soil occupation. Combining susceptibility maps with infrastructures, houses and population density maps will be used in identifying the most risky areas. Finally, based on practical experiences in this kind of field and produced documents some recommendations for low-cost mitigation measures will be proposed. Reference: MIDIMAR, Impacts of floods and landslides on socio-economic development profile. Case study: Musanze District. Kigali, June 2012.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anis Cecilia-Nicoleta
Full Text Available The notion of 'risk' is used in a number of sciences. The Faculty of Law studies the risk depending on its legality. The Accident Theory applies this term to describe the damage and the disasters. One can find studies on the risks in the works of psychology, philosophy, medicine and within each of these areas the study of the risk is based on the given science subject and, of course, on their methods and approaches. Such a variety of risk study is explained by the diversity of this phenomenon. Under the market economy conditions, the risk is an essential component of any economic agent management policy, of the approach developed by this one, a strategy that depends almost entirely on individual ability and capacity to anticipate his evolution and to exploit his opportunities, assuming a so-called 'risk of business failure.' There are several ways to measure the risks in projects, one of the most used methods to measure this being the Value at Risk(VaR. Value at Risk (VaR was made famous by JP Morgan in the mid 1990s, by introducing the RiskMetrics approach, and hence, by far, has been sanctioned by several Governing Bodies throughout the world bank. In short, it measures the value of risk capital stocks in a given period at a certain probability of loss. This measurement can be modified for risk applications through, for example, the potential loss values affirmation in a certain amount of time during the economic life of the project- clearly, a project with a lower VaR is better. It should be noted that it is not always possible or advisable for a company to limit itself to the remote analysis of each risk because the risks and their effects are interdependent and constitute a system .In addition, there are risks which, in combination with other risks, tend to produce effects which they would not have caused by themselves and risks that tend to offset and even cancel each other out.
A risk-mitigation approach to the management of induced seismicity
Bommer, Julian J.; Crowley, Helen; Pinho, Rui
Earthquakes may be induced by a wide range of anthropogenic activities such as mining, fluid injection and extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. In recent years, the increased occurrence of induced seismicity and the impact of some of these earthquakes on the built environment have heightened both public concern and regulatory scrutiny, motivating the need for a framework for the management of induced seismicity. Efforts to develop systems to enable control of seismicity have not yet resulted in solutions that can be applied with confidence in most cases. The more rational approach proposed herein is based on applying the same risk quantification and mitigation measures that are applied to the hazard from natural seismicity. This framework allows informed decision-making regarding the conduct of anthropogenic activities that may cause earthquakes. The consequent risk, if related to non-structural damage (when re-location is not an option), can be addressed by appropriate financial compensation. If the risk poses a threat to life and limb, then it may be reduced through the application of strengthening measures in the built environment—the cost of which can be balanced against the economic benefits of the activity in question—rather than attempting to ensure that some threshold on earthquake magnitude or ground-shaking amplitude is not exceeded. However, because of the specific characteristics of induced earthquakes—which may occur in regions with little or no natural seismicity—the procedures used in standard earthquake engineering need adaptation and modification for application to induced seismicity.
Risk Measures in Quantitative Finance
Mitra, Sovan
This paper was presented and written for two seminars: a national UK University Risk Conference and a Risk Management industry workshop. The target audience is therefore a cross section of Academics and industry professionals. The current ongoing global credit crunch has highlighted the importance of risk measurement in Finance to companies and regulators alike. Despite risk measurement's central importance to risk management, few papers exist reviewing them or following t...
Sibbertsen, Philipp; Stahl, Gerhard; Luedtke, Corinna
Model risk as part of the operational risk is a serious problem for financial institutions. As the pricing of derivatives as well as the computation of the market or credit risk of an institution depend on statistical models the application of a wrong model can lead to a serious over- or underestimation of the institution's risk. Because the underlying data generating process is unknown in practice evaluating the model risk is a challenge. So far, definitions of model risk are either applicat...
James, S.; Joseph Irudayaraj, M.
This paper describes the strategies for enhancing resilience of a coastal community to natural disasters by effective disaster preparedness and mitigation measures. It elaborates the importance of capacity building and improved infrastructure performance. Participatory Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA) is emphasised to understand the diverse vulnerabilities and resilience of the coastal communities. This paper presents a unique approach to integrate the existing capacities, ...
Societal transformation and adaptation necessary to manage dynamics in flood hazard and risk mitigation (TRANS-ADAPT)
Fuchs, Sven; Thaler, Thomas; Bonnefond, Mathieu; Clarke, Darren; Driessen, Peter; Hegger, Dries; Gatien-Tournat, Amandine; Gralepois, Mathilde; Fournier, Marie; Mees, Heleen; Murphy, Conor; Servain-Courant, Sylvie
Facing the challenges of climate change, this project aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. This proposal assesses societal transformations from the perspective of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. Yet each risk mitigation measure is built on a narrative of exchanges and relations between people and therefore may condition the outputs. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this project will focus on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. The policy dimension of adaptation, predominantly decisions on the societal admissible level of vulnerability and risk, will be evaluated by a human-environment interaction approach using multiple methods and the assessment of social capacities of stakeholders across scales. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. In addressing the relationship between these dimensions of adaptation on different temporal and spatial scales, this project is both scientifically innovative and policy relevant, thereby supporting climate policy needs in Europe towards a concept of risk governance. Key words: climate change adaptation; transformation; flood risk management; resilience; vulnerability; innovative bottom-up developments; multifunctional use
Banulescu, Denisa Georgiana; Colletaz, Gilbert; Hurlin, Christophe; Tokpavi, Sessi
This paper proposes intraday High Frequency Risk (HFR) measures for market risk in the case of irregularly spaced high-frequency data. In this context, we distinguish three concepts of value-at-risk (VaR): the total VaR, the marginal (or per-time-unit) VaR, and the instantaneous VaR. Since the market risk is obviously related to the duration between two consecutive trades, these measures are completed with a duration risk measure, i.e., the time-at-risk (TaR). We propose a forecasting procedu...
Tsunami prevention and mitigation necessities and options derived from tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia
Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Steinmetz, T.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.
Risk and vulnerability assessment is an important component of an effective End-to-End Tsunami Early Warning System and therefore contributes significantly to disaster risk reduction. Risk assessment is a key strategy to implement and design adequate disaster prevention and mitigation measures. The knowledge about expected tsunami hazard impacts, exposed elements, their susceptibility, coping and adaptation mechanisms is a precondition for the development of people-centred warning structures, local specific response and recovery policy planning. The developed risk assessment and its components reflect the disaster management cycle (disaster time line) and cover the early warning as well as the emergency response phase. Consequently the components hazard assessment, exposure (e.g. how many people/ critical facilities are affected?), susceptibility (e.g. are the people able to receive a tsunami warning?), coping capacity (are the people able to evacuate in time?) and recovery (are the people able to restore their livelihoods?) are addressed and quantified. Thereby the risk assessment encompasses three steps: (i) identifying the nature, location, intensity and probability of potential tsunami threats (hazard assessment); (ii) determining the existence and degree of exposure and susceptibility to those threats; and (iii) identifying the coping capacities and resources available to address or manage these threats. The paper presents results of the research work, which is conducted in the framework of the GITEWS project and the Joint Indonesian-German Working Group on Risk Modelling and Vulnerability Assessment. The assessment methodology applied follows a people-centred approach to deliver relevant risk and vulnerability information for the purposes of early warning and disaster management. The analyses are considering the entire coastal areas of Sumatra, Java and Bali facing the Sunda trench. Selected results and products like risk maps, guidelines, decision support information and other GIS products will be presented. The focus of the products is on the one hand to provide relevant risk assessment products as decision support to issue a tsunami warning within the early warning stage. On the other hand the maps and GIS products shall provide relevant information to enable local decision makers to act adequately concerning their local risks. It is shown that effective prevention and mitigation measures can be designed based on risk assessment results and information especially when used pro-active and beforehand a disaster strikes. The conducted hazard assessment provides the probability of an area to be affected by a tsunami threat divided into two ranked impact zones. The two divided impact zones directly relate to tsunami warning levels issued by the Early Warning Center and consequently enable the local decision maker to base their planning (e.g. evacuation) accordingly. Within the tsunami hazard assessment several hundred pre-computed tsunami scenarios are analysed. This is combined with statistical analysis of historical event data. Probabilities of tsunami occurrence considering probabilities of different earthquake magnitudes, occurrences of specific wave heights at coast and spatial inundation probability are computed. Hazard assessment is then combined with a comprehensive vulnerability assessment. Here deficits in e.g. people's ability to receive and understand a tsunami warning and deficits in their ability to respond adequately (evacuate on time) are quantified and are visualized for the respective coastal areas. Hereby socio-economic properties (determining peoples ability to understand a warning and to react) are combined with environmental conditions (land cover, slope, population density) to calculate the time needed to evacuate (reach a tsunami safe area derived through the hazard assessment). This is implemented using a newly developed GIS cost-distance weighting approach. For example, the amount of people affected in a certain area is dependent on expected tsunami intensity, inundated area, estimated tsuna
Mitigation of BWR ATWS risk: a probabilistic assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The results of PRAs performed over the last 10 years have demonstrated that BWR accident risk is dominated by transient events. Transients followed by a failure to scram are major contributors to transient-induced BWR accident risks. In the Reactor Safety Study (RSS), failure to scram following a transient contributed approximately 50 percent of the total transient-induced risk. In the Grand Gulf 1 PRA, nearly 20 percent of the transient-caused risk was due to failure to scram. Although BWR reactor protection systems are highly reliable and fully redundant, several system failures over the years have resulted in partial scrams
Modeling and Measurements for Mitigating Interface from Skyshine
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Skyshine, the radiation scattered in the air above a high-activity gamma-ray source, can produce interference with radiation portal monitor (RPM) systems at distances up to even many hundred meters. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been engaged in a campaign of measurements, design work and modeling that explore methods of mitigating the effects of skyshine on outdoor measurements with sensitive instruments. An overview of our work with shielding of skyshine is being reported by us in another paper at this conference. This paper will concentrate on two topics: measurements and modeling with Monte Carlo transport calculations to characterize skyshine from an iridium-192 source, and testing of a prototype louver system, designed and fabricated at PNNL, as a shielding approach to limit the impact of skyshine interference on RPM systems.
Radon research and practice in Bulgaria - from retrospective measurements to mitigation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
An overview of ongoing directions of radon studies in the Faculty of Physics, St. Kliment Ohridski University of Sofia is presented. The focus is on: 1) Study and implementation of the polycarbonate method for measuring 222Rn. In this respect the results from laboratory and field experience with this method are summarized. Its potential for precise retrospective measurements by home stored CDs/DVDs is emphasized. 2) Surveys in radon risk areas in the country. The approaches and results in this direction are illustrated on the example of the town of Rakovski. In this town lung cancer risk is twice increased for both sexes. Significantly high 222Rn concentrations were observed in most of the houses and this can be the major factor contributing to the risk. 3) Mitigation of dwellings with high radon content. Mitigation works were recently initiated and our experience with passive radon barriers and active sub-slab depressurization systems is shared. Summarizing the results in all the three directions we conclude that there is a basis to enhance radon research and practice in the country. To be more efficient, these activities need collaboration with medical authorities, civil engineers and, especially in research, with international teams working in the field. (authors)
Assessment of GHG mitigation technology measures in Ukraine
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Raptsoun, N.; Parasiouk, N.
In June 1992 the representatives of 176 countries including Ukraine met in Rio de Janeiro at the UN Conference to coordinate its efforts in protecting and guarding the environment. Signature of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change by around 150 countries indicates that climate change is potentially a major threat to the world`s environment and economic development. The project {open_quotes}Country Study on Climate Change in Ukraine{close_quotes} coordinated by the Agency for Rational Energy Use and Ecology (ARENIA-ECO) and supported by the US Country Studies Program Support for Climate Change Studies. The aim of the project is to make the information related to climate change in Ukraine available for the world community by using the potential of Ukrainian research institutes for further concerted actions to solve the problem of climate change on the global scale. The project consists of four elements: (1) the development of the GHG Inventory in Ukraine; (2) assessments of ecosystems-vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options; and (3) mitigation options analysis; (4) public education and outreach activities. This paper contains the main results of the third element for the energy and non-energy sectors. Main tasks of the third element were: (1) to select, test and describe or develop the methodology for mitigation options assessment; (2) to analyze the main sources of GHG emissions in Ukraine; (3) to give the macro economic analysis of Ukrainian development and the development of main economical sectors industry, energy, transport, residential, forestry and agriculture; (4) to forecast GHG emissions for different scenarios of the economic development; and (5) to analyze the main measures to mitigate climate change.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Full Text Available This thesis is analyzing the modern role of the internal audit in corporate(mainly banking structures. It describes the changes made in the social role ofauditing during the years and emphasizes the internal audit´s risk managementfunction, rather than just control function. Attention is given to the methodology used,especially to the currently most widespread risk-based auditing approach. Also one ofthe most recent approaches to auditing – so called continuous auditing - is brieflydescribed and the possibilities of its implementation into the risk-based framework areoutlined.
Mitigating corporate water risk: Financial market tools and supply management
Wendy M Larson; Paul L. Freedman; Viktor Passinsky; Edward Grubb; Peter Adriaens
A decision framework for business water-risk response is proposed that considers financial instruments and supply management strategies. Based on available and emergent programmes, companies in the agricultural, commodities, and energy sectors may choose to hedge against financial risks by purchasing futures contracts or insurance products. These strategies address financial impacts such as revenue protection due to scarcity and disruption of direct operations or in the supply chain, but they...
Taming Trojan Horses: Identifying and Mitigating Corporate Social Responsibility Risks
Heugens, P.P.M.A.R.; Dentchev, N.A.
Organizations are exposed to increasing pressures from their constituents to integrate corporate social responsibility (CSR) principles into their ongoing business practices. But accepting new and potentially open-ended commitments is not a harmless exercise, and companies may well expose themselves to serious risks when embracing such principles. To identify these risks, we conducted two naturalistic studies: one exploratory, the other corroborative. The results show that CSR adoption is ass...
This thesis is analyzing the modern role of the internal audit in corporate(mainly banking) structures. It describes the changes made in the social role ofauditing during the years and emphasizes the internal audit´s risk managementfunction, rather than just control function. Attention is given to the methodology used,especially to the currently most widespread risk-based auditing approach. Also one ofthe most recent approaches to auditing – so called continuous auditing - is brieflydescri...
The effectiveness of mitigation for reducing radon risk in single-family Minnesota homes.
Steck, Daniel J
Increased lung cancer incidence has been linked with long-term exposure to elevated residential radon. Experimental studies have shown that soil ventilation can be effective in reducing radon concentrations in single-family homes. Most radon mitigation systems in the U.S. are installed by private contractors. The long-term effectiveness of these systems is not well known, since few state radon programs regulate or independently confirm post-mitigation radon concentrations. The effectiveness of soil ventilation systems in Minnesota was measured for 140 randomly selected clients of six professional mitigators. Homeowners reported pre-mitigation radon screening concentrations that averaged 380 Bq m (10.3 pCi L). Long term post-mitigation radon measurements on the two lowest floors show that, even years after mitigation, 97% of these homes have concentrations below the 150 Bq m U.S. Environmental Protection Agency action level. The average post-mitigation radon in the houses was 30 Bq m, an average observed reduction of >90%. If that reduction was maintained over the lifetime of the 1.2 million Minnesotans who currently reside in single-family homes with living space radon above the EPA action level, approximately 50,000 lives could be extended for nearly two decades by preventing radon-related lung cancers. PMID:22850228
Cloud computing in pharmaceutical R&D: business risks and mitigations.
Geiger, Karl
Cloud computing provides information processing power and business services, delivering these services over the Internet from centrally hosted locations. Major technology corporations aim to supply these services to every sector of the economy. Deploying business processes 'in the cloud' requires special attention to the regulatory and business risks assumed when running on both hardware and software that are outside the direct control of a company. The identification of risks at the correct service level allows a good mitigation strategy to be selected. The pharmaceutical industry can take advantage of existing risk management strategies that have already been tested in the finance and electronic commerce sectors. In this review, the business risks associated with the use of cloud computing are discussed, and mitigations achieved through knowledge from securing services for electronic commerce and from good IT practice are highlighted. PMID:20443161
The minimum balance at risk: A proposal to mitigate the systemic risks posed by money market funds
Mccabe, Patrick E.; Cipriani, Marco; Holscher, Michael; Martin, Antoine
This paper introduces a proposal for money market fund (MMF) reform that could mitigate systemic risks arising from these funds by protecting shareholders, such as retail investors, who do not redeem quickly from distressed funds. Our proposal would require that a small fraction of each MMF investor's recent balances, called the minimum balance at risk (MBR), be demarcated to absorb losses if the fund is liquidated. Most regular transactions in the fund would be unaffected, but redemptions of...
Mitigating Real or Perceived Risks: A Pro-Active Approach for Dealing with Naysayers and Critics
Schutte, Bart; Jones, Kevin
This slide presentation reviews an approach to mitigating real or perceived risks from "Naysayers" and critics in developing and using the software tools available with web 2.0. Some of the issues are about the use of the tools, the ability of management to control the use of these tools, privacy issues and the time the people spend using these tools.
Diabat, Ali; Kannan, Prof. Govindan; Panikar, Vinay
The food supply chain is the domain in this work which suffers a lot of uncertainty in its functioning. The paper discusses the various research works in the area of Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM). The main objective of the proposed work is to create a model which analyzes the various risks involved in a food supply chain with the help of Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) tool. The types of risks are clustered in five categories and the risk mitigation is discussed. The model develo...
Risk mitigation: Planning and emergency; La gestione del rischio: Dall`emergenza al piano
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Menoni, Scira [Politecnico di Milano, Milan (Italy). Dipt. di Scienze del Territorio
In the last years many scholars have recognized what an important tool for risk mitigation land use planning is. Looking at risk from a planner`s perspective requires to adopt a systemic approach, according to which it`s impossible to isolate risky objects from their geographical and social environment. Furthermore a systemic approach fosters planners take into account the chains of potential failures that might affect both punctual and linear sources of damage, that is not only one risk at a time, but multiple risks which jeopardize the correct working of plants, networks, and of entire metropolitan and regional areas.
Spectral Risk Measures and the Choice of Risk Aversion Function
Dowd, Kevin; Cotter, John
Spectral risk measures are attractive risk measures as they allow the user to obtain risk measures that reflect their risk-aversion functions. To date there has been very little guidance on the choice of risk-aversion functions underlying spectral risk measures. This paper addresses this issue by examining two popular risk aversion functions, based on exponential and power utility functions respectively. We find that the former yields spectral risk measures with nice intuiti...
PAEAN- a risk-mitigation framework for business transaction at run-time
Cfarku, Denada; Taher, Yehia; Haque, Rafiqul; Den Heuvel, Willem-jan; Papazoglou, Michael P.
The increasing complexity of the business transaction results in a higher potential risk in terms of SLA violation. The fulfillment of the QoS constraints specified in global SLA can be threatened at any time by different unexpected events that could occur during the execution of a business transaction. Unfortunately, there is no solution found that can efficiently mitigate this risk. Some of the current business transaction monitoring and managing solutions can monitor busi...
Uses of risk importance measures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Risk importance measures provide an understandable and practical way of presenting probabilistic safety analysis results which too often tend to remain abstract numbers without real insight into the content. The report clarifies the definitions, relationships and interpretations of the three most basic measures: Risk increase factor, risk decrease factor, and fractional contribution. The above three measures already cover the main types of risk importance measures. Many other importance measures presented in literature are close variants to some of these three measures. They are related in many cases so that, for a technical system considered, the two other measures can be derived from the one calculated first. However, the practical interpretations are different, and hence each three measures have their own uses and rights to existence. The fundamental aspect of importance measures is, that they express some specific influence of a basic event on the total risk. The basic failure or error events are the elements from which the reliability and risk models are constituted. The importance measures are relative, which is an advantage compared to absolute risk numbers, due to insensitivity with respect to quantification uncertainties. Therefore they are particularly adapted to give first hand guidance where to focus main interest from the system's risk and reliability point of view and wherefrom to continue the analysis with more sophisticated methods requiring more effort
Towards a Proactive Risk Mitigation Strategy at La Fossa Volcano, Vulcano Island
Biass, S.; Gregg, C. E.; Frischknecht, C.; Falcone, J. L.; Lestuzzi, P.; di Traglia, F.; Rosi, M.; Bonadonna, C.
A comprehensive risk assessment framework was built to develop proactive risk reduction measures for Vulcano Island, Italy. This framework includes identification of eruption scenarios; probabilistic hazard assessment, quantification of hazard impacts on the built environment, accessibility assessment on the island and risk perception study. Vulcano, a 21 km2 island with two primary communities host to 900 permanent residents and up to 10,000 visitors during summer, shows a strong dependency on the mainland for basic needs (water, energy) and relies on a ~2 month tourism season for its economy. The recent stratigraphy reveals a dominance of vulcanian and subplinian eruptions, producing a range of hazards acting at different time scales. We developed new methods to probabilistically quantify the hazard related to ballistics, lahars and tephra for all eruption styles. We also elaborated field- and GIS- based methods to assess the physical vulnerability of the built environment and created dynamic models of accessibility. Results outline the difference of hazard between short and long-lasting eruptions. A subplinian eruption has a 50% probability of impacting ~30% of the buildings within days after the eruption, but the year-long damage resulting from a long-lasting vulcanian eruption is similar if tephra is not removed from rooftops. Similarly, a subplinian eruption results in a volume of 7x105 m3 of material potentially remobilized into lahars soon after the eruption. Similar volumes are expected for a vulcanian activity over years, increasing the hazard of small lahars. Preferential lahar paths affect critical infrastructures lacking redundancy, such as the road network, communications systems, the island's only gas station, and access to the island's two evacuation ports. Such results from hazard, physical and systemic vulnerability help establish proactive volcanic risk mitigation strategies and may be applicable in other island settings.
Seismic Risk Mitigation of Historical Minarets Using SMA Wire Dampers
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This paper presents the results of a research program sponsored by the European Commission through project WIND-CHIME (Wide Range Non-INtrusive Devices toward Conservation of HIstorical Monuments in the MEditerranean Area), in which the possibility of using advanced seismic protection technologies to preserve historical monuments in the Mediterranean area is investigated. In the current research, two outstanding Egyptian Mamluk-Style minarets, are investigated. The first is the southern minaret of Al-Sultaniya (1340 A.D, 739 Hijri Date (H.D.)), the second is the minaret of Qusun minaret (1337 A.D, 736 H.D.), both located within the city of Cairo. Based on previous studies on the minarets by the authors, a seismic retrofit technique is proposed. The technique utilizes shape memory alloy (SMA) wires as dampers for the upper, more flexible, parts of the minarets in addition to vertical pre-stressing of the lower parts found to be prone to tensile cracking under ground excitation. The effectiveness of the proposed technique is numerically evaluated via nonlinear transient dynamic analyses. The results indicate the effectiveness of the technique in mitigating the seismic hazard, demonstrated by the effective reduction in stresses and in dynamic response
Using Derivative Contracts to Mitigate Water Utility Financial Risks
Characklis, G. W.; Zeff, H.
As developing new supply capacity has become increasingly expensive and difficult to permit, utilities have become more reliant on temporary demand management programs, such as outdoor water use restrictions, for ensuring reliability during drought. However, a significant fraction of water utility income is often derived from the volumetric sale of water, and such restrictions can lead to substantial revenue losses. Given that many utilities set prices at levels commensurate with recovering costs, these revenue losses can leave them financially vulnerable to budgetary shortfalls during drought. This work explores approaches for mitigating drought-related revenue losses through the use of third-party financial insurance contracts based on weather derivatives. Two different types of contracts are developed, and their efficacy is compared against two more traditional forms of financial hedging used by water utilities: drought surcharges and contingency funds (i.e. self insurance). Strategies involving each of these approaches, as well as their use in combination, are applied under conditions facing the water utility serving Durham, North Carolina. A multi-reservoir model provides information on the scale and timing of droughts, with the financial effects of these events simulated using detailed data derived from utility billing records. Results suggest that third-party derivative contracts, either independently or in combination with more traditional hedging tools (i.e. surcharges, contingency funds), can provide an effective means of reducing a utility's financial vulnerability to drought.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. James
Full Text Available This paper describes the strategies for enhancing resilience of a coastal community to natural disasters by effective disaster preparedness and mitigation measures. It elaborates the importance of capacity building and improved infrastructure performance. Participatory Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA is emphasised to understand the diverse vulnerabilities and resilience of the coastal communities. This paper presents a unique approach to integrate the existing capacities, capacities required and important social and economic activities with the key strategies of community disaster resilience. The study focuses on enhancement of community knowledge in disaster management, community social capital, integrated disaster management plan, preparedness and recovery and disaster mitigation measures implemented in the coastal villages for effectively managing the disaster situations. There is a greater emphasis on the need for involving multisectoral and multidisciplinary sections of the community in in disaster preparedness and capacities required for minimizing social and economic impact which will further help in developing mitigation strategies.
Tychastic Measure of Viability Risk
Aubin, Jean-Pierre; Chen, Luxi; Dordan, Olivier
This book presents a forecasting mechanism of the price intervals for deriving the SCR (solvency capital requirement) eradicating the risk during the exercise period on one hand, and measuring the risk by computing the hedging exit time function associating with smaller investments the date until which the value of the portfolio hedges the liabilities on the other. This information, summarized under the term "tychastic viability measure of risk" is an evolutionary alternative to statistical m...
49 CFR 192.935 - What additional preventive and mitigative measures must an operator take?
...prevent a pipeline failure and to mitigate the...consequences of a pipeline failure in a high consequence...section 5, a risk analysis of its pipeline...and the root cause analysis to support identification of targeted...
Supply Chain Risk Management : Identification, Evaluation and Mitigation Techniques
Musa, S.Nurmaya
Supply chains have expanded rapidly over the decades, with the aim to increase productivity, lower costs and fulfil demands in emerging markets. The increasing complexity in a supply chain hinders visibility and consequently reduces one's control over the process. Cases of disruption such as the ones faced by Ericsson and Enron, have shown that a risk event occurring at one point of the supply chain can greatly affect other members, when the disruption is not properly controlled. Supply chain...
Risks evaluation and mitigation in the new energetic markets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The central issue of debate was the need to align the energy sector's options and organization with changing global patterns of economic and social development, characterized by the increasing role played by the private sector, greater integration in the world economy, and new economic and social priorities such as efficiency, decentralization, deregulation, and a closer attention to environmental issues. The aim of the work was to evaluate the Brazilian electric power market risks and the their agents' relationship after the privatization advent
Market power mitigation by regulating contract portfolio risk
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Abuse of market power by dominant generation firms is a growing concern in worldwide electricity markets. This paper argues that relying only on general competition rules-as is the case in most European countries-is insufficient and that complementary ex-ante regulation is needed. In particular, regulators should incentivize firms to sign contracts with retailers by regulating their risk exposure. In a simulation model we show that this type of regulation can significantly reduce the deadweight loss in the market, without imposing large costs on regulatees
Risk mitigation in the implementation of AMTs: A guiding framework for future
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bhaskar Nagar
Full Text Available The fast industrial development increases different types of risks for the industries. Many risk factors are inherent in the implementation of advanced manufacturing technologies (AMTs. Industries are developing methodologies for risk prevention and protection. The present research focuses to identify various risks that could influence the implementation of AMTs, and develop a framework to mitigate them. For this framework, interpretive structural modeling(ISM has been used to depict the relationship and priority among the various risks. This research provides a path for managers and indicates the dominant risks on the basis of higher driving power. Also, this research classifies the relationship among various risks in AMTs implementation according to their driving power and dependence. The risks have been categorized into four categories as autonomous risks, linkage risks, dependent risks and independent risks. The proposed hierarchal model would help the management to effectively handle and develop strategies against the risks and hence new and latest technologies can be adopted with ease and effectiveness.
Building damage classification and loss assessment for risk mitigation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The objective of this paper is to present a uniform procedure for examining and reporting building damage both in urban and in rural areas so that a data bank on earthquake effects might be established and used for the effective estimation of economic losses. Assessment of direct economic losses is illustrated by a summary presentation of earthquake damage classification performed on 16,478 residential buildings and on all 57,640 buildings damaged by the earthquake of July 26, 1963 in Skopje and April 15, 1979 in Montenegro earthquakes, respectively. Use of these methods and procedures will yield an adequate volume of data to assist community and national authorities in the elaboration and performance of effective seismic risk reduction programmes. (author). 19 refs, 6 figs, 5 tabs
An Efficient Approach towards Mitigating Soft Errors Risks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Muhammad Sheikh Sadi
Full Text Available Smaller feature size, higher clock frequency and lower power consumption are of core concerns of today'snano-technology, which has been resulted by continuous downscaling of CMOS technologies. The resultant'device shrinking' reduces the soft error tolerance of the VLSI circuits, as very little energy is needed tochange their states. Safety critical systems are very sensitive to soft errors. A bit flip due to soft error canchange the value of critical variable and consequently the system control flow can completely be changedwhich leads to system failure. To minimize soft error risks, a novel methodology is proposed to detect andrecover from soft errors considering only 'critical code blocks' and 'critical variables' rather thanconsidering all variables and/or blocks in the whole program. The proposed method shortens space andtime overhead in comparison to existing dominant approaches.
Overview of mitigation policies and measures in the forestry sector
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sathaye, J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., CA (United States)
In this paper the author addresses questions on how the forestry sector can make a contribution to the general problem of greenhouse gases in the environment. Primarily this is in the form of carbon conservation and sequestering. There is a potential land area for conservation and sequestration estimated to be 700 Mha. The total carbon that could be sequestered and conserved globally by 2050 on this land is 60 - 87 GtC. Slowing deforestation, assisting regeneration, forestation and agroforestry are the primary mitigation measures for carbon conservation and sequestration. For long term success, enforcement to halt deforestation has to be accompained by economic and/or other benefits to the deforesters that equal or exceed their current remuneration. Making plantations a significant fuel for utility electricity generation will require higher biomass yields and thermal efficiency matching that of conventional plants. Significant reduction of global carbon emissions requires national governments to institute measures that provide local, national, economic and other benefits while conserving and sequestering carbon.
Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The RHRM equations, as represented in methodology and code presented in this report, are primarily a collection of key factors normally used in risk assessment that are relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected mitigation, cleanup, and risk management activities. The RHRM code has broad application potential. For example, it can be used to compare one mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to just the fixed baseline. If the appropriate source term data are available, it can be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated controlling hazards and risks. These estimated values of controlling hazards and risks can then be examined to help understand which mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions and risk reduction potential at a site. Graphics can be generated from these absolute controlling hazard and risk values to graphically compare these high hazard and risk reduction potential conditions. If the RHRM code is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard and risk estimates) the resultant absolute controlling hazard and risk values
Tychastic measure of viability risk
Aubin, Jean-Pierre; Dordan, Olivier
This book presents a forecasting mechanism of the price intervals for deriving the SCR (solvency capital requirement) eradicating the risk during the exercise period on one hand, and measuring the risk by computing the hedging exit time function associating with smaller investments the date until which the value of the portfolio hedges the liabilities on the other. This information, summarized under the term "tychastic viability measure of risk" is an evolutionary alternative to statistical measures, when dealing with evolutions under uncertainty. The book is written by experts in the field and the target audience primarily comprises research experts and practitioners.
Mahmoud Khraiwesh
Risk management is a continuous process that could endanger the objectives of a project or application.Risks are handled to reduce and avoid threats effects on the objectives of the project. The sources of riskare both internal and external to the project. This research will identify general measures for the specificgoal and its specific practices of Risk Management Process Area (PA) in Capability Maturity ModelIntegration (CMMI). CMMI is developed by Software Engineering Institute (SEI) in C...
Measuring macroprudential risk
Tymoigne, E?ric
With the Great Recession and the regulatory reform that followed, the search for reliable means to capture systemic risk and to detect macrofinancial problems has become a central concern. In the United States, this concern has been institutionalized through the Financial Stability Oversight Council, which has been put in charge of detecting threats to the financial stability of the nation. Based on Hyman Minsky's financial instability hypothesis, the paper develops macroeconomic indexes for ...
Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations
Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.
An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.
Project management best practices: forging win-win partnerships and mitigating power project risk
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This paper discusses aspects of project management to mitigate power project risk. end-to-end project development involves development phase, permitting phase, implementation phase, and operational phase. Each phase involves a number of different elements. In renewable energy project good management requires maintaining project discipline and schedule throughout all phases. Project success requires commercial competitiveness, fuel availability, power sales contracts, stake holder support, permitting, effective execution, construction and good technical performance
Airflow measurement techniques applied to radon mitigation problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
During the past decade a multitude of diagnostic procedures associated with the evaluation of air infiltration and air leakage sites have been developed. The spirit of international cooperation and exchange of ideas within the AIC-AIVC conferences has greatly facilitated the adoption and use of these measurement techniques in the countries participating in Annex V. But wide application of such diagnostic methods are not limited to air infiltration alone. The subject of this paper concerns the ways to evaluate and improve radon reduction in buildings using diagnostic methods directly related to developments familiar to the AIVC. Radon problems are certainly not unique to the United States, and the methods described here have to a degree been applied by researchers of other countries faced with similar problems. The radon problem involves more than a harmful pollutant of the living spaces of our buildings -- it also involves energy to operate radon removal equipment and the loss of interior conditioned air as a direct result. The techniques used for air infiltration evaluation will be shown to be very useful in dealing with the radon mitigation challenge. 10 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab
Radon measurements and mitigation at a fish hatchery.
Kitto, M E; Kunz, C O; McNulty, C A; Covert, S; Kuhland, M
Groundwater radon concentration of 83 Bq L(-1) generated indoor radon levels exceeding 3,300 Bq m(-3) at a commercial fish hatchery. Passive and active mitigation strategies to reduce the waterborne radon levels included a packed column, a waterfall through perforated grates, surface aeration, and bottom bubblers. Waterborne concentrations were reduced up to 83% using a combination of mitigation procedures, but a comparable reduction in indoor radon concentrations was not observed. A diurnal cycle showed that indoor radon levels peaked in early afternoon, probably as a result of warmer air being dissolved in the water during mitigation. Reduction of indoor radon levels below 148 Bq m(-3) was seldom achievable with both water mitigation and direct air ventilation at 23 room air changes hourly. PMID:9525419
Outreach Programs, Peer Pressure, and Common Sense: What Motivates Homeowners to Mitigate Wildfire Risk?
McCaffrey, Sarah M.; Stidham, Melanie; Toman, Eric; Shindler, Bruce
In recent years, altered forest conditions, climate change, and the increasing numbers of homes built in fire prone areas has meant that wildfires are affecting more people. An important part of minimizing the potential negative impacts of wildfire is engaging homeowners in mitigating the fire hazard on their land. It is therefore important to understand what makes homeowners more or less willing to take action. The research presented here comes from a study that interviewed a total of 198 homeowners in six communities in the western United States about the activities they had undertaken to mitigate their fire risk, the factors that contributed to their decisions, and their future intentions. The current paper reports on findings from the first half of the longitudinal study, after 3 years we will return to interview the current homeowner on the same properties to assess maintenance actions and facilitating and limiting factors. Overall we found a body of individuals who understand the fire risk, are taking numerous mitigation actions, and think that these actions have reduced their risk. These homeowners typically did not expect the government to do it for them: they wanted information about what to do and, in some cases, assistance with the work, but saw taking care of their property primarily as their responsibility. Responses also show that key information sources and motivating factors vary by location and that it is not inherently necessary to have relationships between community members to create defensible space.
A new modelling framework and mitigation measures for increased resilience to flooding
Valyrakis, Manousos; Alexakis, Athanasios; Solley, Mark
Flooding in rivers and estuaries is amongst the most significant challenges our society has yet to tackle effectively. Use of floodwall systems is one of the potential measures that can be used to mitigate the detrimental socio-economical and ecological impacts and alleviate the associated costs of flooding. This work demonstrates the utility of such systems for a case study via appropriate numerical simulations, in addition to conducting scaled flume experiments towards obtaining a better understanding of the performance and efficiency of the flood-wall systems. At first, the results of several characteristic inundation modeling scenarios and flood mitigation options, for a flood-prone region in Scotland. In particular, the history and hydrology of the area are discussed and the assumptions and hydraulic model input (model geometry including instream hydraulic structures -such as bridges and weirs- river and floodplain roughness, initial and boundary conditions) are presented, followed by the model results. Emphasis is given on the potential improvements brought about by mitigating flood risk using flood-wall systems. Further, the implementation of the floodwall in mitigating flood risk is demonstrated via appropriate numerical modeling, utilizing HEC-RAS to simulate the effect of a river's rising stage during a flood event, for a specific area. The later part of this work involves the design, building and utilization of a scaled physical model of a flood-wall system. These experiments are carried out at one of the research flumes in the Water Engineering laboratory of the University of Glasgow. These involve an experimental investigation where the increase of force applied on the floodwall is measured for different degrees of deflection of the water in the stream, under the maximum flow discharge that can be carried through without exceeding the floodwall height (and accounting for the effect of super-elevation). These results can be considered upon the implementation phase of floodwalls, when the floodwalls are placed at any arrangement other than parallel to the flow (e.g. along river bends in meandering channels or at river junctions). Such considerations can lead to site-specific optimal designs of direct flood defenses with the rising floodwall system, both in terms of product performance as well as cost efficiency.
SILER: Seismic-Initiated events risk mitigation in Lead-cooled Reactors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
SILER is a Collaborative Project, partially funded by the European Commission, aimed at studying the risk associated to seismic initiated events in Generation IV Heavy Liquid Metal reactors and developing adequate protection measures. The attention is focused on the evaluation of the effects of earthquakes (with particular regards to beyond design seismic events) and to the identification of mitigation strategies, acting both on structures and components design (as well as on the development of seismic isolation devices) which can also have positive effects on economics, leading to an high level of plant design standardization. Attention is also devoted to the identification of plant layout solutions able to avoid risks of radioactive release from both the core and other structures (i.e. the spent fuel storage pools). Specific effort is paid to the development of guidelines and design recommendations for addressing the seismic issue in next generation reactor systems. In addition, consideration will be devoted to transfer the knowledge developed in the project to Generation III advanced systems, in line with the objective of the SNE-TP SRA to support present and future Light Water Reactors and their further development, for which safety issues are key aspects to be addressed. Note, in this respect, that the benefits of base isolation in terms of response to design seismic actions are already widely recognized for Generation III LWRs, along with the possibility of a siI LWRs, along with the possibility of a significant standardization of structural and equipment design. SILER activities started on October 1 st 2011 and are carried out by 18 partners: ENEA (Italy, Coordinator), AREVA NP SAS (France), SCK-CEN (Belgium), FIP Industriale (Italy), MAURER SOHENE (Germany), EC-JRC (Ispra (Italy)), SINTEC (Italy), KTH (Sweden), BOA-BKT (Germany), IDOM (Spain), ANSALDO (Italy), IPUL (Latvia), NUMERIA (Italy), VCE (Austria), SRS (Italy), CEA (France), EA (Spain), NUVIA (France). (authors)
Current issues in dietary acrylamide:formation,mitigation and risk assessment
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedreschi, F.; Salome Mariotti, M.
Acrylamide (AA) is known as a neurotoxin in humans and it is classified as a probable human carcinogen by the International Agency of Research on Cancer. AA is produced as by-product of the Maillard reaction in starchy foods processed at high temperatures (>120 °C). This review includes the investigation of AA precursors, mechanisms of AA formation and AA mitigation technologies in potato, cereal and coffee products. Additionally, most relevant issues of AA risk assessment are discussed. New technologies tested from laboratory to industrial scale face, as a major challenge, the reduction of AA content of browned food, while still maintaining its attractive organoleptic properties. Reducing sugars such as glucose and fructose are the major contributors to AA in potato-based products. On the other hand, the limiting substrate of AA formation in cereals and coffee is the free amino acid asparagine. For some products the addition of glycine or asparaginase reduces AA formation during baking. Since, for potatoes, the limiting substrate is reducing sugars, increases in sugar content in potatoes during storage then introduce some difficulties and potentially quite large variations in the AA content of the final product. Sugars in potatoes may be reduced by blanching. Levels of AA in different foods show large variations and no general upper limit is easily applicable, since some formation will always occur. Current policy is that practical measures should be taken voluntarily to reduce AA formation in vulnerable foods since AA is considered a health risk at the concentrations found in foods. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.
Thailand's Low-Carbon Scenario 2050: The AIM/CGE analyses of CO2 mitigation measures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Climate change and CO2 mitigation have become increasingly important environmental issues. Recently Thailand has proposed policies on GHG mitigation such as Thailand's Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA), which aims at GHG mitigation in the energy sector. This study used the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, called "AIM/CGE" model, to analyse GHG mitigation measures under emission trading and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology in Thailand. Results show that the international free emission trading policy can drive more GHG reduction by decreasing energy supply and demand, and increasing prices of emissions. The CCS technologies would balance emission reduction but they would reduce energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy utilization. In the energy security aspect, the policy options in this study would improve energy security, energy import dependency, and co-benefits of GHG mitigation in forms of improving local air quality. Results are also helpful to GHG mitigation policy in developing countries. -- Highlights: •A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was used to analyze GHG mitigation policies in Thailand. •The CCS and emission trading will increase GHG mitigation in Thailand. •The 30% GHG mitigation target with 50% emission trading will give the best result in GDP. •The share of biomass resource and energy efficiency will decrease with CCS. •The emission trading will play an important role in decreasing fossil consumption and increasing renewable energy utilization
Knowledge Sharing and Collaboration in Volcanic Risk Mitigation at Galeras Volcano, Colombia: A Participative Workshop to Reduce Volcanic Risk
Sheridan, M. F.; Cordoba, G. A.
Galeras has been in nearly constant activity during modern historic times (roughly the past 500 years). Approximately 10,000 people live within an area designated as the highest-hazard and nearly 400,000 people are within areas of potential harmful effects. A wide variety of stakeholders are affected by the hazards, including: farmers, indigenous villagers, and people in urban environments. Hazards assessment and volcano monitoring are the responsibility of the Colombian Geological Survey (INGEOMINAS), whereas decisions regarding mitigation and response procedures are the responsibility of various governmental offices and the national emergency system (SNPAD). According to the current plan, when the risk level rises to a high level the people in the highest risk zone are required to evacuate. The volcano currently is in a very active, but fluctuating, condition and a future large eruption in a medium time frame (years to decades) is possible. There is a growing level of discomfort among many of the affected groups, including indigenous communities, farmers, and urban dwellers, related to the risk assessment. The general opinion prior to July 2009 was quite polarized as the decision makers saw the people of the region as poorly prepared to understand this hazard, whereas the population felt that their views were not being heard. The result was that the people in the hazardous areas decided not to evacuate, even during the current period of explosive activity. To resolve this situation the University of Nariño (Colombia) and the State University of New York at Buffalo organized a workshop named "Knowledge, Sharing and Collaboration in Volcanic Risk Mitigation at Galeras Volcano, Colombia" that was held in Pasto (Colombia), between 6 and 11 July, 2009. The general objective of this workshop was to analyze the existing hazard maps and safety plans for Galeras and form a bridge connecting scientists, decision makers, and other stake holders to promote a better understanding of the hazards presented by Galeras and the measures needed for mutual understanding and protection of people and property in the potentially threatened areas. Progress towards developing trust was achieved by requiring all the parties, including technicians, scientists, administrators and even farmers and indigenous people to listen to each others' perceptions thought the entire week of the workshop. On the final day of the meeting a roundtable dialogue between the conflicting parts was moderated by social scientists. This intercourse identified, in a consensual manner, points of agreement to serve as starting positions for finding solutions to the areas of conflict. Irresolvable points were also identified during this roundtable discussion. The workshop showed that by sharing information within the framework of a full and frank communication, accepting (or at least listening to) each others' arguments and trying to understand different points of view and served as a framework for an ongoing process of dialogue focused on resolving conflicts between the various stakeholder groups, even though they had previously reached the point of radicalized positions and statements.
Landslide risk mitigation through integrated monitoring and modelling
Terranova, Oreste Giuseppe; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Iovine, Giulio G. R.
In winter 2008-09, exceptional prolonged rains triggered numerous landslides in Calabria (southern Italy). Among these, a large rock slide was triggered on 28 January 2009 in weathered metamorphic rocks at San Benedetto Ullano (CS), involving fractured and altered migmatitic gneiss and biotitic schist. A detailed geomorphological survey was carried out during the entire phase of mobilization, allowing to recognize the evolution of the phenomenon. A series of benchmarks was promptly placed in correspondence of fractures on the body and along the sides of the landslide, allowing for frequent measurements of surface movements. In addition, a network of real-time monitoring extensometers were implemented at the surface of the landslide, combined with a meteorological station. The survey site and the data of the monitoring system allowed, from the early stages of activation of the phenomenon, to implement a support system to handle the emergency. In the following months, a clear retrogressive distribution could be identified, coupled with a tendency towards the enlargement of the flanks. In early May, the first crisis ended up. After the arrest of the phenomenon, a geological-technical scheme of the slope could be drawn, also based on data collected through a set of 5 exploratory wells (equipped with 4 inclinometers and 1 piezometer). The landslide mobilized a thickness from 15 to 35 meters along the longitudinal profile. To examine the stability of the slope affected by the landslide, and to quantify the role of fluctuations of the water table in destabilizing the slope, a parametric limit equilibrium analysis was conducted. The analysis confirmed the first interpretation of the process: the first activation of the landslide was expected, in fact, in the central portion of the slope in case, in the same area, the groundwater levels are close to ground level. Between 31 January 31 and 1 February 2010, following a further period of exceptional rainfall, the network of strain gauges promptly evicenced the beginning of a new phase of mobilization of the landslide, accompanied by the opening of cracks along the local and provincial roads. On 10 February, the slope movement led the Civil Protection Authority to issue new evacuation orders and closing the roads. On 11 February, following further rains, a further movement of the landslide body occurred, with severe damage to roads and infrastructure. Overall, this new phase of activation replied the one observed during the crisis started in January 2009, confirming the results of the limit equilibrium analysis. Based on the results of the parametric analysis, the surveillance system could be refined, thanks to a better understanding of the physics of the slope instability. The limit equilibrium analysis was followed by the calibration of a hydrological model, thanks to the availability of dates of activation of the landslide and of rains recorded in the vicinity of the study area. The latest activation of the slope instability took place during the night between 15 and 16 March 2013, again confirming the results of the limit equilibrium analysis and of the hydrological model "SAKe". It should be noted that this activation occurred as a result of rain amounts that are less abundant and prolonged than those of the previous two activations, despite the realization of some engineering works and drainages had been started in the study area to improve slope stability. Further works are still to be made, and a refinement of the stability analyses is in progress to understand the apparent increasing fragility of the considered slope.
Flood risk and mitigation strategies in the southeastern suburbs of Fez City (Morocco
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Akdim, Brahim
Full Text Available The risk of flooding in the south-eastern suburbs of Fez (Morocco was engendered by multiple factors (topographic, hydro-climatic, land use, social, technical. This study focuses on the Aouinate El Hajjaj district and shows that the district's evolution, characterized by informal transactions (speculation, land squatting, construction without respect of norms and regulations was a major factor in the genesis of flood risk as the district extended into vulnerable sectors. Public efforts to resolve the district's crisis and reinforce its environmental safety began in 1993 (2 dams and channels were constructed, street were paved and basic facilities were provided, such as drinking water, sanitation and electricity, but the risk factors persist. Technical solutions are locally recognized to be useful, but they are not sufficient. Other mitigating actions including the reduction of physical and socioeconomic vulnerability and the strengthening of the social structure of the community should be considered in a systemic point of view. They constitute elements of an alternative strategy in urban planning and development and must be framed by laws and regulations. Their use could be undertaken at individual, community and State levels depending on the specific dimension of each measure. A vision which integrates local and regional scales is essential in risk studies, in order to design a more sustainable action. The role of non-governmental organisations is important in flood mitigation and urban environmental policy. The incorporation of flood prevention as a parameter of urban planning should be considered by planners and the local population.En los suburbios del sudeste de Fez (Marruecos el riesgo de inundaciones responde a fenómenos de diversa naturaleza física y humana (topográficos, hidrológicos, climáticos, utilización del suelo, factores sociales y técnicos. En este trabajo se analiza la situación del distrito de Aouinate El Hajjaj, en donde diferentes procesos derivados de la ocupación de este espacio (especulación, proliferación de asentamientos informales, edificación sin respeto a las normas y reglamentos… han constituido factores decisivos en la génesis de los riesgos de inundación que actualmente afectan a la zona. Aunque los esfuerzos públicos para resolver la crisis del distrito y reforzar su seguridad frente a las adversidades del medio natural comenzaron en 1993 (construcción de dos presas y de canales, pavimentado de calles, dotación y mejora de los equipamientos básicos como el abastecimiento de agua potable y de electricidad, obras de saneamiento, etc., los factores de riesgo aún persisten. Las soluciones técnicas aplicadas han sido reconocidas por su utilidad, pero es necesario trabajar en otros ámbitos, como la reducción de la vulnerabilidad física, social y ambiental, y en el reforzamiento de la estructura social de la comunidad, lo que permitiría abordar el problema desde un punto de vista sistémico. Todos ellos constituyen los elementos de una estrategia alternativa en la planificación y el desarrollo urbano que deben ser enmarcadas por leyes y reglamentos. Su uso podría llevarse a cabo a nivel individual, comunitario y estatal —en función de la dimensión específica de cada caso—, con el fin de fomentar una estrategia de integración entre las escalas locales y regionales que contribuya a concebir acciones más sostenibles en los estudios de mitigación de los riesgos ambientales. Así mismo, el papel de las organizaciones no gubernamentales es importante en esta cuestión, y la política medioambiental, las acciones de los diferentes agentes que intervienen en el planeamiento urbano y la población local, deben estar sensibilizados y comprometidos con las estrategias para la prevención de inundaciones. [fr] Le risque d'inondation dans les banlieues du Sud-Est de la ville de Fez (Maroc sont produits par des facteurs multiples (topographiques, hydro-climatiques, relatifs aux usages du sol, sociaux, techniques. L'étude vise le district d'A
From Risk Measures to Research Measures
FRITTELLI, MARCO; Peri, Ilaria
In order to evaluate the quality of the scientific research, we introduce a new family of scientific performance measures, called Scientific Research Measures (SRM). Our proposal originates from the more recent developments in the theory of risk measures and is an attempt to resolve the many problems of the existing bibliometric indices. The SRM that we introduce are based on the whole scientist's citation record and are: coherent, as they share the same structural propertie...
The paper gives initial results of an EPA program to demonstrate mitigation measures for indoor radon. EPA has installed radon mitigation techniques in 18 concrete block basement homes in the Reading Prong area of eastern Pennsylvania, all designed to demonstrate techniques which...
Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)
Full Text Available Este artículo describe una metodología cualitativa, para evaluar un índice de riesgo físico por caída de rocas a escala detallada (1:1000). Se realiza una cartografía detallada de las áreas de salida de bloques, depósitos de talud y geomorfología. Los depósitos de talud son indicadores de la frecuen [...] cia y distribución espacial del fenómeno de caída de rocas y su relación con las áreas fuente, donde se hizo una detallada clasificación de los bloques potencialmente inestables. El resultado final es la definición de los "corredores de tránsito" y su correspondiente clasificación en las categorías bajo, medio o alto índice de amenaza. Abstract in english This paper describes a qualitative methodology for the assessment of rock fall physical risk index at large-scale (1:1000). Through a detailed geologic and geomorphological survey both rock fall deposits and rock fall sources are identified and mapped. Analysis of the rock fall deposits give indicat [...] ions over the temporal frequency and spatial distribution of the phenomenon and point out the most active areas. Rock fall sources are meticulously studied and individual rock blocks are classified based on its potential instability. The final product is a definition of the rock's "transit corridors" and their corresponding classification, concerning the rock fall hazard index, using the heuristically defined categories of low, moderate and high hazard. Hazard index is estimated as lineal function of main variables, whose values (numeric indexes) are ground together in three categories: high, moderate, and low. Physical vulnerability index to each "transit corridor" is assessed based on the number of people and dwellings. Finally, physical risk index to every "transit corridor" is obtained crossing hazard index and vulnerability index data. The risk assessment results allowed the local authorities to carry out an integrated set of urban reorganization measures aimed at the mitigation of the rock fall related risk.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mahmoud Khraiwesh
Full Text Available Risk management is a continuous process that could endanger the objectives of a project or application.Risks are handled to reduce and avoid threats effects on the objectives of the project. The sources of riskare both internal and external to the project. This research will identify general measures for the specificgoal and its specific practices of Risk Management Process Area (PA in Capability Maturity ModelIntegration (CMMI. CMMI is developed by Software Engineering Institute (SEI in Carnegie MellonUniversity in USA. CMMI is a framework for improvement and assessment of computer informationsystems. The method we used to define the measures is to apply the Goal Questions Metrics (GQMparadigm to the specific goals and its specific practices of Risk Management Process Area in CMMI.
Liquidity Risk – Measurement and Control
Blahová, Na?a
The article deals with the liquidity risk in the banks in the context of the financial crisis. At first, the balance sheet and market liquidity are defined and the main principles of the methods for measuring liquidity risk, which banks use, are identified. Then follow review of main challenges of managing the liquidity of banks. Finally, it discusses qualitative regulatory requirements and eligibility of newly formulated standards with regard to minimum liquidity in general and in relation t...
Managing soil natural capital: An effective strategy for mitigating future agricultural risks?
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Cong, Ronggang; Hedlund, Katarina
Uncontrollable events such as adverse weather and volatile prices present considerable risks for arable farmers. Soil natural capital, which views the capacity of soil biodiversity to generate ecosystem services as a component of farm capital, could be important for the stability and resilience of arable production systems. We investigate therefore whether managing soil natural capital could be an effective strategy for mitigating future agricultural risks. We do this by constructing a dynamic stochastic portfolio model to optimize the stock of soil organic carbon (SOC)—our indicator of soil natural capital—when considering both the risks and returns from farming. SOC is controlled via the spatial and temporal allocation of cash crops and an illustrative replenishing land use. We find that higher soil natural capital buffers yield variance against adverse weather and reduces reliance on external inputs. Managing soil natural capital has therefore the potential to mitigate two serious agricultural risks: energy price shocks and adverse weather events, both of which are likely to be exacerbated in the future due to, e.g., globalization and climate change.
Assessing and mitigating risks of engineering programs with lean management techniques
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fritz, A.; Oehmen, Josef
This paper investigates the use of lean management techniques as a risk mitigation approach for large-scale engineering programs. The key research questions are how lean best practices with the highest risk mitigation potential are identified, how the most relevant lean best practices for a specific program are identified and how the effort for implementation of these lean best practices is estimated. Large-scale engineering programs have as results usually complex technical products or systems such as airplanes, satellites (GPS) or software programs, immense infrastructure efforts like the construction of a new airport, highway or bridge, or combine elements of both technology and infrastructure. The benefits they deliver are therefore immense and sometimes even groundbreaking, defining new levels of capabilities. But their sheer size and the built-in complexity also manifest themselves in higher risks, which can lead to significant cost-overruns and large delays in schedule [Oehmen et al. 2012, Cantarelli et al. 2010, Flyvbjerg et al. 2003, GAO 2006]. Program success depends on four dimensions: delivery capability, organizational capability, marketing capability and innovative capability [Shao and Müller 2011, Shao et al. 2012]. To incorporate these capabilities and to manage the obviously difficult entity of a program, a variety of standards and guidance books have been published. The two most prominent ones are Managing Successful Programs (MSP) and The Standard for Program Management by the Project Management Institute (PMI), that both include Risk Management as a focal activity [MSP 2011, PMI 2013].
Analysis of the 2002 flood in Austria - facts, conclusions and mitigation measures
Formayer, H.; Habersack, H.; Holzmann, H.; Moser, A.; Seibert, P.
In August 2002 Austria was affected - like other European countries e.g. Germany, Czech Republic or Romania - by an extreme flood event, which occurred in Central Europe and brought rainfall of extraordinary extent and flood recurrence intervals from several years to more than 1000 years. Losses of human life and livestock and damages of infrastructure, buildings, public and private properties rose the public awareness and the demand for improvement of future flood mitigation measures. The Centre of Natural Hazards and Risk Management of the BOKU-University for Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna startet as a first initiative with a summary and review of all reports and documents upon the regional impact of the event. The summary includes the description of the meteorological boundary conditions, the flood generation and their frequencies. A broad range of disciplinary aspects like river engineering, river ecology, vegetation and biology, soil science and soil mechanics, rural and urban planning were involved. The inventory and interpretation of the damages forms a base for assessment of shortcomings and requirements for a successful flood protection strategy for the future. The holistic approach will result in improved regional water management plans and assists in the development of a sustainable, catchment based flood mitigation strategy. Besides the review of the event the presentation will comment on some lacks and shortcomings in the collected data base and will give hints for future demands in online monitoring requirements, on establishment and improvement of forecasting tools and of the information transfer to the emergency services.
Observational Studies of Earthquake Preparation and Generation to Mitigate Seismic Risks in Mines
Durrheim, R. J.; Ogasawara, H.; Nakatani, M.; Milev, A.; Cichowicz, A.; Kawakata, H.; Yabe, Y.; Murakami, O.; Naoi, M. M.; Moriya, H.; Satoh, T.
We provide a status report on a 5-year project to monitor in-situ fault instability and strong motion in South African gold mines. The project has two main aims: (1) To learn more about earthquake preparation and generation mechanisms by deploying dense arrays of high-sensitivity sensors within rock volumes where mining is likely to induce significant seismic activity. (2) To upgrade the South African national surface seismic network in the mining districts. This knowledge will contribute to efforts to upgrade schemes of seismic hazard assessment and to limit and mitigate the seismic risks in deep mines. As of 31 July 2011, 46 boreholes totalling 1.9 km in length had been drilled at project sites at Ezulwini, Moab-Khotsong and Driefontein gold mines. Several dozen more holes are still to be drilled. Acoustic emission sensors, strain- and tiltmeters, and controlled seismic sources are being installed to monitor the deformation of the rock mass, the accumulation of damage during the preparation phase, and changes in dynamic stress as the rupture front propagates. These data will be integrated with measurements of stope closure, stope strong motion, seismic data recorded by the mine-wide network, and stress modelling. Preliminary results will be reported at AGU meeting. The project is endorsed by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST), Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the South African government. It is funded by the JST-JICA program for Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable development (SATREPS, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), the Council for Geoscience, the University of the Witwatersrand and the Department of Science and Technology. The contributions of Seismogen CC, OHMS Ltd, AnglogoldAshanti Rock Engineering Applied Research Group, First Uranium, the Gold Fields Seismic Department and the Institute of Mine Seismology are gratefully acknowledged.
Landslide hazard assessment and mitigation measures in Philippine geothermal fields
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Leynes, R.D.; Pioquinto, W.P.C.; Caranto, J.A. [PNOC Energy Development Corporation, Fort Bonifacio (Philippines)
Simple, yet reliable, field criteria have been developed and are being used to qualitatively assess slope instability and slope failure potential in Philippine geothermal fields. Based on a hazard assessment classification of slopes along corridor facilities, sites for implementation of engineering measures are selected. Two case studies are presented. In Mindanao field, the ''very high-risk'' classification of an area resulted in the installation of pipe shelters, which subsequently shielded a section of a pipeline from landslides. Follow-up monitoring is also conducted using cheap, locally fabricated tools, such as surface extensometers. This is being done in Leyte field, where a landslide has threatened a transmission line tower. (author)
Assess/Mitigate Risk through the Use of Computer-Aided Software Engineering (CASE) Tools
Aguilar, Michael L.
The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was requested to perform an independent assessment of the mitigation of the Constellation Program (CxP) Risk 4421 through the use of computer-aided software engineering (CASE) tools. With the cancellation of the CxP, the assessment goals were modified to capture lessons learned and best practices in the use of CASE tools. The assessment goal was to prepare the next program for the use of these CASE tools. The outcome of the assessment is contained in this document.
Conditional and dynamic convex risk measures
Detlefsen, Kai; Scandolo, Giacomo
We extend the definition of a convex risk measure to a conditional framework where additional information is available. We characterize these risk measures through the associated acceptance sets and prove a representation result in terms of conditional expectations. As an example we consider the class of conditional entropic risk measures. A new regularity property of conditional risk measures is defined and discussed. Finally we introduce the concept of a dynamic convex risk measure as a fam...
Different risk measures: different portfolio compositions?
Byrne, Peter; Lee, Stephen
Traditionally, the measure of risk used in portfolio optimisation models is the variance. However, alternative measures of risk have many theoretical and practical advantages and it is peculiar therefore that they are not used more frequently. This may be because of the difficulty in deciding which measure of risk is best and any attempt to compare different risk measures may be a futile exercise until a common risk measure can be identified. To overcome this, another approach is considere...
Satellite-Derived River Ice Information for Improved Flood-Risk Mitigation
Russell, K.; Warren, S.; Howell, C.; Puestow, T.; Randell, C.; Adlakha, P.; Khan, A.; Mahabir, C.; Tang, P.; Novik, N.; Burakov, D.; Alasset, P.
The development of ice covers on large rivers can result in ice jamming and extensive flooding. Decision makers require up-to-date information on river ice development to identify and mitigate potential hazards. Satellite based monitoring services offer an ideal method to collect information on river ice repeatedly and consistently throughout the ice season. Recently launched satellites, such RADARSAT-2, provide a number of improved capabilities, such as higher spatial resolution and multiple polarization modes, which could potentially enhance river ice monitoring services. A major motivation for this research was to improve the satellite-based river ice monitoring service currently delivered to a variety of end users under C-CORE's Polar View initiative, by evaluating the potential of dual-polarized SAR data for improved river ice classification. A project was initiated to evaluate the utility of dual-pol (HH and HV) SAR data for river ice monitoring, and aims to develop a new river ice classification algorithm with test sites in Canada and Russia. EO data and field data were collected from 2005 to 2008, and were correlated by date and location to identify river ice training sites. Field data include annotated maps, aerial and field photographs, aerial video, ice observer reports and emails from end users in the field. Dual-pol SAR data combined with field data were used to develop a quadratic discriminant classifier algorithm based on image backscatter values and texture measures derived from the Grey Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM). A sequential forward selection algorithm was employed to select the set of variables used in the classification algorithm. The results of this analysis indicate an improved separability of ice classes resulting from the incorporation of both the HV channel and GLCM texture measures. The differentiation of ice types was further improved by using a region-based approach, rather than pixel-based classification. Validation of the resulting dual-pol, region-based classification algorithm with ground-truth data showed an overall classification accuracy in excess of 90%. EO-based monitoring has significant potential to guide aerial and field reconnaissance missions to cover specific river sections instead of relying on a systematic coverage, which might miss critical developments. Likewise, EO-based observations can be gathered on days where flights or field visits are not possible (e.g. night-time), or acquired over expanded areas beyond typical flight paths or areas of field reconnaissance. The enhanced ability to track ice front progress and characterize critical ice types makes EO-based monitoring a powerful tool for decision makers concerned with mitigating ice-related flood risk. This work is supported by the Canadian Space Agency under the Earth Observation Application Development Program (EOADP). The data came from the European Space Agency, under the GMES project.
Mitigation of fire damage and escalation by fireproofing: A risk-based strategy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Passive fire protection by the application of fireproofing materials is a crucial safety barrier in the prevention of the escalation of fire scenarios. Fireproofing improves the capacity of process items and of support structures to maintain their structural integrity during a fire, preventing or at least delaying the collapse of structural elements. Maintenance and cost issues require, however, to apply such protection only where an actual risk of severe fire scenarios is present. Available methodologies for fireproofing application in on-shore installation do not consider the effect of jet-fires. In the present study, a risk-based methodology aimed at the protection from both pool fire and jet fire escalation was developed. The procedure addresses both the prevention of domino effect and the mitigation of asset damage due to the primary fire scenario. The method is mainly oriented to early design application, allowing the identification of fireproofing zones in the initial phases of lay-out definition.
Measuring perinatal mental health risk
Johnson, M.; Schmeid, V.; Lupton, S. J.; Austin, M. -p; Matthey, S. M.; Kemp, L.; Meade, T.; Yeo, A. E.
The purpose of this review was to critically analyse existing tools to measure perinatal mental health risk and report on the psychometric properties of the various approaches using defined criteria. An initial literature search revealed 379 papers, from which 21 papers relating to ten instruments were included in the final review. A further four papers were identified from experts (one excluded) in the field. The psychometric properties of six multidimensional tools and/or criteria were asse...
Spectral risk measures and portfolio selection
Adam, Alexandre; Houkari, Mohamed; Laurent, Jean-paul
This paper deals with risk measurement and portfolio optimization under risk constraints. Firstly we give an overview of risk assessment from the viewpoint of risk theory, focusing on moment-based, distortion and spectral risk measures. We subsequently apply these ideas to an asset management framework using a database of hedge funds returns chosen for their non- Gaussian features. We deal with the problem of portfolio optimization under risk constraints and lead a comparative analysis of eff...
Compliance with EPA guidelines for follow-up testing and mitigation after radon screening measurements
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
A survey was taken of 314 individuals, 55 of whom had residences that exceeded the EPA action level of 148 Bq m-3 (4 pCi L-1) of radon as measured by a medical center radon testing service. The survey was designed to assess whether these individuals followed the 1986 EPA guidelines for follow-up testing and mitigation. The survey indicated 41% of respondents performed follow-up tests and 16% of the respondents performed some form of mitigation. Some respondents had performed mitigation after inadequate or no follow-up radon tests. There was a positive relationship between follow-up testing and mitigation and higher initial radon screening values
Risk Measures via Heavy Tails.
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Ka?ková, Vlasta
Bratislava : Vydavatelstvo EKONÓM, 2012 - (Reiff, M.), s. 115 -119 ISBN 978-80-225-3426-0. [Quantitative Methods in Economics (Multiple Criteria Decision Making XVI). Bratislava (SK), 30.05.2012-01.06.2012] R&D Projects: GA ?R GAP402/10/0956; GA ?R GAP402/11/0150; GA ?R GAP402/10/1610 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Static stochastic optimization problems * linear and nonlinear dependence * thin and heavz tails Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research; AH - Economics (UTIA-B) http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/E/kankova-risk measures via heavy tails.pdf
Effect of Wind Intermittency on the Electric Grid: Mitigating the Risk of Energy Deficits
George, Sam O; Nguyen, Scott V
Successful implementation of California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mandating 33 percent renewable energy generation by 2020 requires inclusion of a robust strategy to mitigate increased risk of energy deficits (blackouts) due to short time-scale (sub 1 hour) intermittencies in renewable energy sources. Of these RPS sources, wind energy has the fastest growth rate--over 25% year-over-year. If these growth trends continue, wind energy could make up 15 percent of California's energy portfolio by 2016 (wRPS15). However, the hour-to-hour variations in wind energy (speed) will create large hourly energy deficits that require installation of other, more predictable, compensation generation capacity and infrastructure. Compensating for the energy deficits of wRPS15 could potentially cost tens of billions in additional dollar-expenditure for fossil and / or nuclear generation capacity. There is a real possibility that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions will miss the California ...
Measuring, Reporting and Verifying Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions. Reflecting experiences under the Mitigation Momentum Project. Discussion paper
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
De Vit, C.; Roeser, F.; Fekete, H.; Hoehne, N.; Wartmann, S.; Van Tilburg, X.; Larkin, J.; Escalante, D.; Haensel, G.; Veum, K.; Cameron, L.; Halcomb, J.
The Mitigation Momentum project aims to support the development of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs). It contributes to the concrete design of NAMA proposals in five countries (Peru, Chile, Indonesia, Tunisia and Kenya). A further aim is to foster cooperation and knowledge exchange within the NAMA community while advancing the international climate policy debate on mitigation and related issues, including approaches for the Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of NAMAs. MRV enables the assessment of the effectiveness of both internationally supported NAMAs (supported NAMAs) and domestically supported NAMAs (unilateral NAMAs) by tracking NAMA impacts including greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions and non-GHG related impacts such as sustainable development benefits. MRV also supports improved policy design and decision making through systematic progress reporting and is a key tool to ensure accountability of NAMA stakeholders. Both host countries and funders share the common interest of having strong, implementable MRV systems in place. From both perspectives, this raises a number of questions, as well as potential challenges, on how to adapt the MRV approach to the specific circumstances of each NAMA. The objective of this paper is to identify open issues for the MRV of impacts of NAMAs, understood here as implementable actions, i.e. a project, a policy, a programme or a strategy. It pays particular attention to NAMAs with a supported component and reflects relevant initial experiences with developing NAMA proposals in the five Mitigation Momentum countries (i.e. using country examples where appropriate). As MRV systems for these NAMAs are still under development or at their preliminary stage, we hope to share further lessons learned in a subsequent discussion paper. Key challenges analysed in this paper include: How to design a MRV system that satisfies both the host country's and funder's expectations while complying with United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reporting requirements? How to draw the line between the MRV approach for unilateral components and the MRV approach for supported components given that many NAMAs are likely to have both unilateral as well as supported components? How to design a pragmatic, implementable MRV system, which is also robust? What does robustness mean in the context of the MRV of NAMAs? Current NAMA experiences show that responding to these challenges requires taking into account the variety of NAMAs, as illustrated by those submitted to the UNFCCC (including economy-wide GHG reduction goals, sectoral strategies, mitigation policies, individual projects, etc.), and countries' capacities. Although this paper does not aim to provide practical guidance, it will highlight areas where common guidance would be valuable to deal with such challenges. It will also point out areas where such guidance is limited de facto and where pragmatic approaches i.e. seeking a balance between robustness, feasibility and cost-effectiveness, may prove valuable to design feasible yet still robust MRV systems. Although this paper does not answer all questions it raises, it aims to offer innovative ways to respond to open issues, including through learning from country experiences. After a short introduction to basic MRV concepts and to the current status of discussions and experiences on MRV (Chapter 2), the paper is organised around key dimensions of MRV as recognised by MRV literature and UNFCCC texts: transparency (Chapter 3), robustness (Chapter 4), and feasibility and cost-effectiveness (Chapter 5). Challenges pertaining to these MRV dimensions are further explored in each chapter.
Stochastic optimized life cycle models for risk mitigation in power system applications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This ork shows the relevance of stochastic optimization in complex power system applications. It was proven that usual deterministic mean value models not only predict inaccurate results but are also most often on the risky side. The change in the market effects all kind of evaluation processes (e.g. fuel type and technology but especially financial engineering evaluations) in the endeavor of a strict risk mitigation comparison. But not only IPPs also traditional Utilities dash for risk/return optimized investment opportunities. In this study I developed a 2-phase model which can support a decision-maker in finding optimal solutions on investment and profitability. It has to be stated, that in this study no objective function will be optimized in an algorithmically way. On the one hand focus is laid on finding optimal solutions out of different choices (highest return at lowest possible risk); on the other hand the endeavor was to provide a decision makers with a better assessment of the likelihood of outcomes on investment considerations. The first (deterministic) phase computes in a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) approach (Life cycle Calculation; DCF method). Most of the causal relations (day of operation, escalation of personal expanses, inflation, depreciation period, etc.) are defined within this phase. The second (stochastic) phase is a total new way in optimizing risk/return relations. With the some decision theory mathematics an expected value of stochastic solmatics an expected value of stochastic solutions can be calculated. Furthermore probability function have to be defined out of historical data. The model not only supports profitability analysis (including regress and sensitivity analysis) but also supports a decision-maker in a decision process. Emphasis was laid on risk-return analysis, which can give the decision-maker first hand informations of the type of risk return problem (risk concave, averse or linear). Five important parameters were chosen which have the characteristics of typical prospective unpredictability. Other parameters which are not typical totally uncertain in the future are handled within the deterministic live cycle model (parameters such as escalation of insurance costs, personal costs, etc.). One major result in comparing the deterministic with a stochastic calculation was that without changing a mean value parameter the result of stochastic calculation can vary from the deterministic calculation tremendously. In this study I proved that such tools for risk/return analysis could provide helpful informations to a decision-maker. The only major prerequisite for a good solution is that the user has reliable statistical empirical data available and that he spends in fitting the distribution curves to these. (author)
Experiences using Visualization Techniques to Present Requirements, Risks to Them, and Options for Risk Mitigation
Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Kiper, James D.; Menzies, Tim
For several years we have been employing a risk-based decision process to guide development and application of advanced technologies, and for research and technology portfolio planning. The process is supported by custom software, in which visualization plays an important role. During requirements gathering, visualization is used to help scrutinize the status (completeness, extent) of the information. During decision making based on the gathered information, visualization is used to help decisionmakers understand the space of options and their consequences. In this paper we summarize the visualization capabilities that we have employed, indicating when and how they have proven useful.
Hanford single-shell underground storage tank waste retrieval risk reduction through leak detection, monitoring, and mitigation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
A trade study was performed to evaluate and compare leakage detection, monitoring, and mitigation (LDMM) technologies. The technologies were evaluated for feasibility of application at the Hanford Site, life-cycle cost of application, contribution to risk reduction (effectiveness), and the resulting cost-benefit of each technology
Implications of Climate Change Impacts on Regional Maize Production in the United States: Risk Mitigation Strategies and Food Security
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiang Li
Full Text Available Analyzing the impacts of climate change on regional maize production in the North Central and the South regions of the United States and proposing risk mitigation strategies have significant implications in the context of national and global food security. Unlike most estimation, we use an interdisciplinary approach and combine climatic variables along with economic inputs and technological improvement in the adapted Cobb-Douglas production function model. The production function is simulated through 2030 under a variety of climate change scenarios, and the results indicate that under the climate change South region tends to have opposite impacts relative to the North Central, the major maize production region in the United States. The results imply that one region's losses can be partially offset by the other region's gains. The different responses imply that the South region could provide potential risk mitigation to climate change within the United States and could help the nation and the world maintain maize supply stability. The results gained from this research could be used as cost-efficient climate change risk mitigation strategies for other agricultural commodities in other countries. They can also be used for public policies and advanced risk mitigation and diversification programs, and are expected to contribute to the sustainability of agriculture and the stability of international crop market price in the United States and the world.
Geologic carbon sequestration as a global strategy to mitigate CO2 emissions: Sustainability and environmental risk
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Oldenburg, C.M.
Fossil fuels are abundant, inexpensive to produce, and are easily converted to usable energy by combustion as demonstrated by mankind's dependence on fossil fuels for over 80% of its primary energy supply (13). This reliance on fossil fuels comes with the cost of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions that exceed the rate at which CO{sub 2} can be absorbed by terrestrial and oceanic systems worldwide resulting in increases in atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration as recorded by direct measurements over more than five decades (14). Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas linked to global warming and associated climate change, the impacts of which are currently being observed around the world, and projections of which include alarming consequences such as water and food shortages, sea level rise, and social disruptions associated with resource scarcity (15). The current situation of a world that derives the bulk of its energy from fossil fuel in a manner that directly causes climate change equates to an energy-climate crisis. Although governments around the world have only recently begun to consider policies to avoid the direst projections of climate change and its impacts, sustainable approaches to addressing the crisis are available. The common thread of feasible strategies to the energy climate crisis is the simultaneous use of multiple approaches based on available technologies (e.g., 16). Efficiency improvements (e.g., in building energy use), increased use of natural gas relative to coal, and increased development of renewables such as solar, wind, and geothermal, along with nuclear energy, are all available options that will reduce net CO{sub 2} emissions. While improvements in efficiency can be made rapidly and will pay for themselves, the slower pace of change and greater monetary costs associated with increased use of renewables and nuclear energy suggests an additional approach is needed to help bridge the time period between the present and a future when low-carbon energy is considered cheap enough to replace fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one such bridging technology (1). CCS has been the focus of an increasing amount of research over the last 15-20 years and is the subject of a comprehensive IPCC report that thoroughly covers the subject (1). CCS is currently being carried out in several countries around the world in conjunction with natural gas extraction (e.g., 2, 3) and enhanced oil recovery (17). Despite this progress, widespread deployment of CCS remains the subject of research and future plans rather than present action on the scale needed to mitigate emissions from the perspective of climate change. The reasons for delay in deploying CCS more widely are concerns about cost (18), regulatory and legal uncertainty (19), and potential environmental impacts (21). This chapter discusses the long-term (decadal) sustainability and environmental hazards associated with the geologic CO{sub 2} storage (GCS) component of large-scale CCS (e.g., 20). Discussion here barely touches on capture and transport of CO{sub 2} which will occur above ground and which are similar to existing engineering, chemical processing, and pipeline transport activities and are therefore easier to evaluate with respect to risk assessment and feasibility. The focus of this chapter is on the more uncertain part of CCS, namely geologic storage. The primary concern for sustainability of GCS is whether there is sufficient capacity in sedimentary basins worldwide to contain the large of amounts of CO{sub 2} needed to address climate change. But there is also a link between sustainability and environmental impacts. Specifically, if GCS is found to cause unacceptable impacts that are considered worse than its climate-change mitigation benefits, the approach will not be widely adopted. Hence, GCS has elements of sustainability insofar as capacity of the subsurface for CO{sub 2} is concerned, and also in terms of whether the associated environmental risks are acceptable or not to the public.
Debris Flow Risk mitigation by the means of flexible barriers. Experimental and field tests.
Canelli, L.; Ferrero, A. M.; Segalini, A.
Debris flow risk mitigation using net barriers is an option that was not considered until few years ago, probably because of the lack of scientific evidences about their efficiency and solid guidelines for their design and construction. On site evidences (Segalini et al, 2008) showed that a rock fall deformable barrier can efficiently intercept the whole volume or just a portion of the mobilized debris without losing its stability and efficiency, actually performing a different task form that it was originally designed for. Although the final purpose of both types of barriers (rock fall and debris) is to reduce the impact energy of the moving mass by dissipating impact energy through the deformation of the net and of the dissipating elements, it is noteworthy that the physics of the impact is extremely different between the two phenomena. The rock fall barrier needs to dissipate the energy of a single block generally concentrated on the center of the net panel (design conditions). The debris flow barrier, generally installed inside a debris channel, should be able to dissipate the impact energy that the debris induces across the whole section of the channel. Moreover, the recurring characteristic of the debris flows will cause multiple impact on the barrier and therefore, the structure should be able to absorb a significant amount of energy even if partially filled and considerably deformed. In order to introduce useful guidelines for the design and production of debris flow net barriers, this paper describes: 1. Part of the results obtained from the laboratory experiment carried out in a scaled channel and aimed to estimate the most realistic thrust vs time relationship induced by a debris flow on a deformable and rigid structure; these results were partially presented last year at the EGU 2011; 2. A large scale field test carried out in a quarry located in Tambre d'Alpago (Belluno Province) on the Eastern Italian Dolomites for the analysis of the behavior of a real scale deformable net barrier subjected to recurring impacts of small volumes, substantially dry, debris flows until the complete filling up of the channel. Laboratory tests were carried out using a small scale channel (40 cm wide channel and 4 m long) designed and installed at University of Parma in which were triggered flows of water saturated sand impacting with different typologies of barriers installed in order to measure the impact force of the generated flow. The field test has been conducted by artificially mobilizing volumes of quarry debris along a 50 m long and 2 m wide channel at the end of which a real scale deformable net barrier was installed. The impacts were monitored using five high speed video cameras, the deformation progress of the barrier induced by the impacts was obtained using two high shutter speed cameras configured and synchronized for a stereoscopic restitution. Forces on the structural steel cables where measured by installing five load cells between the cable and its foundation. Results obtained are presented and compared with the relevant literature.
How HRP Research Results Contribute to Human Space Exploration Risk Mitigation
Lumpkins, Sarah; Mindock, Jennifer
In addition to the scientific value of publications derived from research, results from Human Research Program (HRP) research also support HRP's goals of mitigating crew health and performance risks in space flight. Research results are used to build the evidence base characterizing crew health and performance risks, to support risk research plan development, to inform crew health and performance standards, and to provide technologies to programs for meeting those standards and optimizing crew health and performance in space. This talk will describe examples of how research results support these efforts. For example, HRP research results are used to revise or even create new standards for human space flight, which have been established to protect crew health and performance during flight, and prevent negative long-term health consequences due to space flight. These standards are based on the best available clinical and scientific evidence, as well as operational experience from previous space flight missions, and are reviewed as new evidence emerges. Research results are also used to update the HRP evidence base, which is comprised of a set of reports that provide a current record of the state of knowledge from research and operations for each of the defined human health and performance risks for future NASA exploration missions. A discussion of the role of evidence within the HRP architecture will also be presented. The scope of HRP research results extends well beyond publications, as they are used in several capacities to support HRP deliverables and, ultimately, the advancement of human space exploration beyond low-Earth orbit.
New Risk Measure and Idiosyncratic Risk in Taiwan Stock Market
Yin-Ching Jan; Su-Ling Chiu; Wang, Jerry M. C.
Under the model developed by Merton (1987), the idiosyncratic risk would be important to explain the expected stock return. We follow the approach of Daniel and Titman (1998), and use the risk measure developed by Jan and Wang (2012) to examine whether idiosyncratic risk can play an important role in explaining the expected return in Taiwan stock market. We find that beta can't explain the expected return, and that idiosyncratic risk has a positive relation to expected returns for stocks wi...
Severe accident approach - final report. Evaluation of design measures for severe accident prevention and consequence mitigation.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tentner, A. M.; Parma, E.; Wei, T.; Wigeland, R.; Nuclear Engineering Division; SNL; INL
An important goal of the US DOE reactor development program is to conceptualize advanced safety design features for a demonstration Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR). The treatment of severe accidents is one of the key safety issues in the design approach for advanced SFR systems. It is necessary to develop an in-depth understanding of the risk of severe accidents for the SFR so that appropriate risk management measures can be implemented early in the design process. This report presents the results of a review of the SFR features and phenomena that directly influence the sequence of events during a postulated severe accident. The report identifies the safety features used or proposed for various SFR designs in the US and worldwide for the prevention and/or mitigation of Core Disruptive Accidents (CDA). The report provides an overview of the current SFR safety approaches and the role of severe accidents. Mutual understanding of these design features and safety approaches is necessary for future collaborations between the US and its international partners as part of the GEN IV program. The report also reviews the basis for an integrated safety approach to severe accidents for the SFR that reflects the safety design knowledge gained in the US during the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) and Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) programs. This approach relies on inherent reactor and plant safety performance characteristics to provide additional safety margins. The goal of this approach is to prevent development of severe accident conditions, even in the event of initiators with safety system failures previously recognized to lead directly to reactor damage.
Making the Handoff from Earthquake Hazard Assessments to Effective Mitigation Measures (Invited)
Applegate, D.
This year has witnessed a barrage of large earthquakes worldwide with the resulting damages ranging from inconsequential to truly catastrophic. We cannot predict when earthquakes will strike, but we can build communities that are resilient to strong shaking as well as to secondary hazards such as landslides and liquefaction. The contrasting impacts of the magnitude-7 earthquake that struck Haiti in January and the magnitude-8.8 event that struck Chile in April underscore the difference that mitigation and preparedness can make. In both cases, millions of people were exposed to severe shaking, but deaths in Chile were measured in the hundreds rather than the hundreds of thousands that perished in Haiti. Numerous factors contributed to these disparate outcomes, but the most significant is the presence of strong building codes in Chile and their total absence in Haiti. The financial cost of the Chilean earthquake still represents an unacceptably high percentage of that nation's gross domestic product, a reminder that life safety is the paramount, but not the only, goal of disaster risk reduction measures. For building codes to be effective, both in terms of lives saved and economic cost, they need to reflect the hazard as accurately as possible. As one of four federal agencies that make up the congressionally mandated National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) develops national seismic hazard maps that form the basis for seismic provisions in model building codes through the Federal Emergency Management Agency and private-sector practitioners. This cooperation is central to NEHRP, which both fosters earthquake research and establishes pathways to translate research results into implementation measures. That translation depends on the ability of hazard-focused scientists to interact and develop mutual trust with risk-focused engineers and planners. Strengthening that interaction is an opportunity for the next generation of earthquake scientists and engineers. In addition to the national maps, the USGS produces more detailed urban seismic hazard maps that communities have used to prioritize retrofits and design critical infrastructure that can withstand large earthquakes. At a regional scale, the USGS and its partners in California have developed a time-dependent earthquake rupture forecast that is being used by the insurance sector, which can serve to distribute risk and foster mitigation if the right incentives are in place. What the USGS and partners are doing at the urban, regional, and national scales, the Global Earthquake Model project is seeking to do for the world. A significant challenge for engaging the public to prepare for earthquakes is making low-probability, high-consequence events real enough to merit personal action. Scenarios help by starting with the hazard posed by a specific earthquake and then exploring the fragility of the built environment, cascading failures, and the real-life consequences for the public. To generate such a complete picture takes multiple disciplines working together. Earthquake scenarios are being used both for emergency management exercises and much broader public preparedness efforts like the Great California ShakeOut, which engaged nearly 7 million people.
Value at Risk as a risk measurement tool
Myczkowska, Katarzyna; Pehoeva, Antoniya; Kroitblat, Marcel
The Global Financial Crisis of 2007 has shown that the risk measurement tools of banks and other financial institutions had failed to predict the market crash. In response to that the new Basel III regulations are trying to prevent a repetition of such a crisis. To find out how proper the Value at Risk method works as a risk measurment tool adjusted to the new regulations, we first aimed to answered the question, how successful it worked before the crisis. Therefore, we created...
Tree nut allergy: risk factors for development, mitigation of reaction risk and current efforts in desensitization.
Liu, Mona; Burks, A Wesley; Green, Todd D
Allergy to tree nuts has grown widespread among patients, specifically in the pediatric population, in recent years. In this review, we evaluate and summarize the literature specific to development and treatment of tree nut allergy. The cause of tree nut allergy, such as most food allergies, is unknown; there are theories regarding maternal dietary factors as well as sensitization related to cross-reactivity to peanut allergens. The gold standard for the diagnosis of tree nut allergy is the double-blind, placebo-controlled, oral food challenge; however, simpler and more cost-effective diagnostic methods, such as the skin prick test and serum-specific IgE are often used as a supplement for diagnosis. Management of tree nut allergy consists of dietary avoidance and using epinephrine to manage serious allergic reactions. Alternative therapeutic methods, such as oral and sublingual immunotherapy and modification of allergenic proteins are being explored to develop safer, more effective and long-lasting management of tree nut allergy. We comment on the current studies involving risk factors for sensitization, diagnosis and management of tree nut allergy. PMID:25824522
Marginal abatement cost curves and the optimal timing of mitigation measures
Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Hallegatte, Stéphane
Decision makers facing abatement targets need to decide which abatement measures to implement, and in which order. Measure-explicit marginal abatement cost curves depict the cost and abating potential of available mitigation options. Using a simple intertemporal optimization model, we demonstrate why this information is not sufficient to design emission reduction strategies. Because the measures required to achieve ambitious emission reductions cannot be implemented overnight, the optimal str...
Biodosimetry as a New Paradigm for Determination of Radiation Risks and Risk-Mitigation in Astronauts Exposed to Space Radiation
Richmond, Robert; Cruz, Angela; Bors, Karen
Predicting risk of cancer in astronauts exposed to space radiation is challenging partly because uncertainties of absorption of dose and the processing of dose-related damage at the cellular level degrade the confidence of predicting the expression of cancer. Cellular biodosimeters that simultaneously report: 1) the quantity of absorbed dose after exposure to ionizing radiation, 2) the quality of radiation delivering that dose, and 3) the macromolecular profiles related to malignant transformation in cells absorbing that dose would therefore be useful. An approach to such a multiparametric biodosimeter will be reported, This is the demonstration of two dose-responsive field-effects of enhanced protein-expression. In one case, expression of keratin 18 (K18) in cultures of human mammary epithelial cells (HMEC) irradiated with cesium-137 gamma-rays is enhanced following exposure of log phase cells to relatively low doses of 30 to 90 cGy. K18 has been reported by a marker for tumor staging and for apoptosis. In the second case, expression of connexin 43 (Cx43) is increased in irradiated stationary phase cultures of HMEC, indicating enhanced formation of gap junctions. Gap junctions have been reported to be involved in bystander effects following irradiation. It is a biodosimeter for assessing radiogenic damage. It is suggested further that such biomolecular dosimetry may introduce a new paradigm for assessing cancer risk and risk-mitigation in individuals, a requirement for managing radiation health in astronauts during extended missions in space. This new paradigm is built upon the statistical power provided by the use of functional genomics and proteomics represented in combined gene- and protein-expression assays.
The report gives results from a year-long, intensive instrumented study of radon entry processes and the effectiveness of radon mitigation measures in seven occupied New Jersey houses. ll seven houses are basement houses with elevated radon levels (i.e., > 400 and 7500 Bq/cu m) p...
CO2 Mitigation Measures of Power Sector and Its Integrated Optimization in China
Dai, Pan; Chen, Guang; Zhou, Hao; Su, Meirong; Bao, Haixia
Power sector is responsible for about 40% of the total CO2 emissions in the world and plays a leading role in climate change mitigation. In this study, measures that lower CO2 emissions from the supply side, demand side, and power grid are discussed, based on which, an integrated optimization model of CO2 mitigation (IOCM) is proposed. Virtual energy, referring to energy saving capacity in both demand side and the power grid, together with conventional energy in supply side, is unified planni...
Legacy Risk Measure for Environmental Waste
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) is investigating the development of a comprehensive and quantitative risk model framework for environmental management activities at the site. Included are waste management programs (high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level waste, mixed low-level waste, spent nuclear fuel, and special nuclear materials), major environmental restoration efforts, major decontamination and decommissioning projects, and planned long-term stewardship activities. Two basic types of risk estimates are included: risks from environmental management activities, and long-term legacy risks from wastes/materials. Both types of risks are estimated using the Environment, Safety, and Health Risk Assessment Program (ESHRAP) developed at the INEEL. Given these two types of risk calculations, the following evaluations can be performed: risk evaluation of an entire program (covering waste/material as it now exists through disposal or other e nd states); risk comparisons of alternative programs or activities; comparisons of risk benefit versus risk cost for activities or entire programs; ranking of programs or activities by risk; ranking of wastes/materials by risk; evaluation of site risk changes with time as activities progress; and integrated performance measurement using indicators such as injury/death and exposure rates. This paper discusses the definition and calculation of legacy risk measures and associated issues. The legac measures and associated issues. The legacy risk measure is needed to support three of the seven types of evaluations listed above: comparisons of risk benefit versus risk cost, ranking of wastes/materials by risk, and evaluation of site risk changes with time
Ground Data System Risk Mitigation Techniques for Faster, Better, Cheaper Missions
Catena, John J.; Saylor, Rick; Casasanta, Ralph; Weikel, Craig; Powers, Edward I. (Technical Monitor)
With the advent of faster, cheaper, and better missions, NASA Projects acknowledged that a higher level of risk was inherent and accepted with this approach. It was incumbent however upon each component of the Project whether spacecraft, payload, launch vehicle, or ground data system to ensure that the mission would nevertheless be an unqualified success. The Small Explorer (SMEX) program's ground data system (GDS) team developed risk mitigation techniques to achieve these goals starting in 1989. These techniques have evolved through the SMEX series of missions and are practiced today under the Triana program. These techniques are: (1) Mission Team Organization--empowerment of a closeknit ground data system team comprising system engineering, software engineering, testing, and flight operations personnel; (2) Common Spacecraft Test and Operational Control System--utilization of the pre-launch spacecraft integration system as the post-launch ground data system on-orbit command and control system; (3) Utilization of operations personnel in pre-launch testing--making the flight operations team an integrated member of the spacecraft testing activities at the beginning of the spacecraft fabrication phase; (4) Consolidated Test Team--combined system, mission readiness and operations testing to optimize test opportunities with the ground system and spacecraft; and (5). Reuse of Spacecraft, Systems and People--reuse of people, software and on-orbit spacecraft throughout the SMEX mission series. The SMEX ground system development approach for faster, cheaper, better missions has been very successful. This paper will discuss these risk management techniques in the areas of ground data system design, implementation, test, and operational readiness.
Risk Measures for Autocorrelated Hedge Fund Returns
Di Cesare, A.; Stork, Ph A.; Vries, C. G.
Standard risk metrics tend to underestimate the true risks of hedge funds because of serial correlation in the reported returns. Getmansky et al. (2004) derive mean, variance, Sharpe ratio, and beta formulae adjusted for serial correlation. Following their lead, adjusted downside and global measures of individual and systemic risks are derived. We distinguish between normally and fat tailed distributed returns and show that adjustment is particularly relevant for downside risk measures in the...
Solvency Capital estimation and Risk Measures
Ferri Vidal, Antoni
This paper examines why a financial entity's solvency capital estimation might be underestimated if the total amount required is obtained directly from a risk measurement. Using Monte Carlo simulation we show that, in some instances, a common risk measure such as Value-at-Risk is not subadditive when certain dependence structures are considered. Higher risk evaluations are obtained for independence between random variables than those obtained in the case of comonotonicity. The paper stresse...
The paper discusses and critiques EPA's experience in conducting house evaluation visits in Florida and Ohio. Suggestions are offered as to the utility and priority to be given to selected diagnostic procedures and measurements. EPA had an experimental program to develop and demo...
Multiple-pollutant cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gas mitigation measures in the UK agriculture
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Highlights: ? Multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curves can inform integrated environmental policy. ? We incorporated the co-effects on NH3, NO3?, P and sediment, as monetary values, into the UK GHG MACC. ? Adding co-effects modifies the GHG MACC, though with little impact unless using high damage values. ? Further research is needed on the co-effects of GHG mitigation measures and on damage values. ? Analysis should focus on the co-effects of measures that are slightly above or below the threshold. -- Abstract: This paper develops multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curve analysis to identify an optimal set of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures considering the trade-offs and synergies with other environmental pollutants. The analysis is applied to UK agriculture, a sector expected to make a contribution to the national GHG mitigation effort. Previous analyses using marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) have determined the sector's GHG abatement potential based on the cost-effectiveness of a variety of technically feasible mitigation measures. Most of these measures have external effects on other pollution loads arising from agricultural activities. Here the monetary values of four of the most important impacts to water and air (specifically ammonia, nitrate, phosphorous and sediment) are included in the cost-effectiveness analysis. The resulting multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curve (MP MACC) informs the design of sustainable climate change policies by showing how the MP MACC for the UK agriculture can differ from the GHG MACC. The analysis also highlights research gaps, and suggests a need to understand the wider environmental effects of GHG mitigation options and to reduce the uncertainty in pollutant damage cost estimates
Risk informed analysis of training effectiveness for mitigating accidents of nuclear power plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
A critical area for deriving expected benefits from training and exercise is the measurement of 'training effectiveness'-how well the training inputs are serving the intended purpose. This aspect is often neglected by nuclear organizations, saying that measurement is difficult. However, I believe that a technique in nuclear society has developed sufficiently to measure most important aspects of training by way of human reliability analysis (HRA) used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The consequences of errors caused by lack of training can be evaluated in terms of the overall vulnerability to human error of the facility under consideration. This study presents current situation and considerations for measures of robustness on nuclear accidents and HRA technique on the training effectiveness. In view of risk informed approach with this consideration and an example case, I'd like to identify appropriate relationship between risk measures of robustness and training effectiveness
Role of the Internet in Anticipating and Mitigating Earthquake Catastrophes, and the Emergence of Personal Risk Management (Invited)
Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Donnellan, A.; Graves, W.; Tiampo, K. F.; Klein, W.
Risks from natural and financial catastrophes are currently managed by a combination of large public and private institutions. Public institutions usually are comprised of government agencies that conduct studies, formulate policies and guidelines, enforce regulations, and make "official" forecasts. Private institutions include insurance and reinsurance companies, and financial service companies that underwrite catastrophe ("cat") bonds, and make private forecasts. Although decisions about allocating resources and developing solutions are made by large institutions, the costs of dealing with catastrophes generally fall for the most part on businesses and the general public. Information on potential risks is generally available to the public for some hazards but not others. For example, in the case of weather, private forecast services are provided by www.weather.com and www.wunderground.com. For earthquakes in California (only), the official forecast is the WGCEP-USGS forecast, but provided in a format that is difficult for the public to use. Other privately made forecasts are currently available, for example by the JPL QuakeSim and Russian groups, but these efforts are limited. As more of the world's population moves increasingly into major seismic zones, new strategies are needed to allow individuals to manage their personal risk from large and damaging earthquakes. Examples include individual mitigation measures such as retrofitting, as well as microinsurance in both developing and developed countries, as well as other financial strategies. We argue that the "long tail" of the internet offers an ideal, and greatly underutilized mechanism to reach out to consumers and to provide them with the information and tools they need to confront and manage seismic hazard and risk on an individual, personalized basis. Information of this type includes not only global hazard forecasts, which are now possible, but also global risk estimation. Additionally, social networking tools are available that will allow self-organizing, disaster-resilient communities to arise as emergent structures from the underlying nonlinear social dynamics. In this talk, we argue that the current style of risk management is not making adequate use of modern internet technology, and that significantly more can be done. We suggest several avenues to proceed, in particular making use of the internet for earthquake forecast and information delivery, as well as tracking forecast validation and verification on a real-time basis. We also show examples of forecasts delivered over the internet, and describe how these are made.
A review of selected state of the art applications of diagnostic measurements for radon mitigation planning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The Air and Energy Engineering Laboratory of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has, since the fall of 1984, supported a program to develop and demonstrate radon mitigation techniques for single family detached dwellings. To date approximately sixty houses with radon concentrations ranging from 20 to 600 rhoCi/L (740-22,000 Bq/m/sup -3/) have been investigated and have had radon mitigation plans developed for demonstration purposes. This paper compares and evaluates the relative utility of selected diagnostic measurements used by EPA contractors in their efforts to understand the indoor radon problem and select the most appropriate mitigation for a specific house. The diagnostic measurements reported include: grab sampling of infiltrating soil gas from cracks or openings around utility entries to below-grade house structure, and of soil gas under the slab and in hollow walls, air flow and air communications measurements using depressurization under basement floors and around walls, whole house infiltration (leakage area) measurements, differential pressure measurements between various zones inside and outside the house, gamma measurements, and radon flux measurements over exposed soil and through basement walls and floors
Vector-valued Coherent Risk Measures
Jouini, Elye?s; Meddeb, Moncef; Touzi, Nizar
We define a coherent risk measures as set-valued maps satisfying some axioms. We show that this definition is a convenient extension of the real-valued risk measures introduced by Artzner, Delbaen, Eber and Heath (1998). We then discuss the aggregation issue, i.e. the passage from valued random portofolio to valued measure of Risk. Necessary and sufficient conditions of coherent aggregation are provided
Cooperative efforts to mitigate proliferation risks at the Semipalatinsk test site
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Full text: For forty years the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS) was used by the Soviet Union for atmospheric and underground nuclear tests. Atmospheric test were terminated as a result of the 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty; underground tests continued until 1990. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991, most of the soldiers guarding the site and most of the technical specialists returned to Russia. The Kazakhstan National Nuclear Center (NNC) was left with a huge environmental legacy and an unknown nuclear proliferation legacy. The Russian government was concerned that it would have to shoulder the environmental cleanup costs and, perhaps, face reparations for past activities. Consequently, its officials and technical specialists had no desire to return to the STS. NNC officials and technical specialists reached out to the international community to ask for assistance in assessing and mitigating the environmental risks at the STS. They had virtually no information about potential proliferation concerns because the nuclear testing records were Russian government property. Under the United States Cooperative Threat Reduction (Nunn-Lugar) program, a concerted effort was made by the U.S. Department of Defense to close the nuclear testing tunnels to destroy the nuclear testing infrastructure at the STS. The Nunn-Lugar program also facilitated the removal of nearly 600 kilograms of highly enrichment uranium from the Ulba Metallurgical Plant in Ust-Kamenothe Ulba Metallurgical Plant in Ust-Kamenogorsk to the United States to avoid potential nuclear proliferation problems. The Nunn-Lugar program was also responsible, together with the Russian government, to return Soviet nuclear weapons from Kazakhstan to Russia. As part of the Cooperative Threat Reduction lab-to-lab program, technical specialists from the U.S. national laboratories began to work with NNC specialists to enhance the protection and safeguarding of fissile materials resident at STS reactors and at the research reactor and associated facilities at the Institute for Nuclear Physics at Alatau and the fast reactor at Aktau. These programs resulted in cooperative activities between NNC and U.S. national laboratory technical specialists. One of these activities brought me to the STS in April 1998. That visit combined with my experience at the U.S. Nevada Nuclear Test Site convinced me that there were likely other fissile materials present at the STS that may present a significant proliferation risk and required immediate attention. NNC officials and specialists were unsuccessful in obtaining any information from the Russian government. Moreover, since the Republic of Kazakhstan had signed the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, it was not supposed to have undeclared fissile materials in its territory. By 1998, my colleagues at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and I had established close cooperation with the nuclear specialists from the Russian Federal Nuclear Centers (the All-Russia Institute for Experimental Physics, VNIIEF, and All-Russia Institute for Theoretical Physics, VNIITF). We were able to convince Academician Rady I. Ilkaev, director of VNIIEF, to return to Kazakhstan in 1999 and sign a three-party technical memorandum to work with the three governments to assess and liquidate the potential proliferation risks. Government officials from the U.S. Department of Energy, Russian Ministry of Atomic Energy, and RK NNC gave formal approval to proceed with trilateral technical cooperation to assess and remediate the proliferation risks associated with former Russian nuclear experiments and tests at STS. Over the next 13 years, we witnessed a remarkable spirit of cooperation among the three countries. The Russian nuclear specialists identified the potential sites of concerns, the type of materials and testing activity. They also played a major role in suggesting the appropriate mitigation actions. Without their cooperation, this effort could not have been successful. If left to the Americans and Kazakhstani specialists, it would have been like lookin
Cooperative measures to mitigate Asia-Pacific maritime conflicts.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chai, Wen-Chung (Taiwan Navy)
The economies of East Asia are predominantly export based and, therefore, place special emphasis on the security of the sea lines of communication (SLOCs). Due to economic globalization, the United States shares these concerns. Cooperative measures by the concerned parties could reduce the potential for disruption by maritime conflicts. Primary threats against the SLOCs are disputes over the resources under the seas, disputes over some small island groups, disputes between particular parties (China-Taiwan and North-South Korea), or illegal activities like smuggling, piracy, or terrorism. This paper provides an overview on these threats, issue by issue, to identify common elements and needed cooperation. Cooperation on other topics such as search and rescue, fisheries protection, and oil spill response may help support improved relations to prevent maritime conflicts. Many technologies can help support maritime cooperation, including improved communications links, tracking and emergency beacon devices, and satellite imaging. Appropriate technical and political means are suggested for each threat to the SLOCs.
Scientific Opinion on animal health risk mitigation treatments as regards imports of animal casings
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
EFSA Panel on Animal Health and Welfare
Full Text Available
Salting with NaCl for 30 days is a well-established and accepted procedure in the casings industry and it has been the standard animal health risk mitigation treatment prescribed in EU legislation for many years. This opinion reviews (i improvements in the NaCl treatment that would lead to an increased level of safety to avoid transmission of animal pathogens, (ii alternative treatments that could have been developed giving equivalent or better results in the inactivation of relevant pathogens, and (iii provides an assessment of the phosphate-salt treatment recommended by OIE for foot and mouth disease virus, in particular if it could be considered safe as regards the elimination of other animal pathogens. The rate of inactivation of viruses was highly dependent on temperature for both NaCl and phosphate-NaCl treatment. Treatment with phosphate-NaCl mixture leads to faster inactivation than treatment with NaCl salt alone. Brucella species are readily inactivated by NaCl salting, but mycobacteriamay survive beyond 30 days in intestines in conditions similar to those used for salting of casings. It is recommended that casings should be treated at 20 °C for 30 days to achieve effective inactivation of animal pathogens. Several other treatments have been applied to casings with the aim of inactivating infectious agents, but none of them have been extensively investigated with viruses relevant for animal health.
From Smile Asymptotics to Market Risk Measures
Sircar, Ronnie
The left tail of the implied volatility skew, coming from quotes on out-of-the-money put options, can be thought to reflect the market's assessment of the risk of a huge drop in stock prices. We analyze how this market information can be integrated into the theoretical framework of convex monetary measures of risk. In particular, we make use of indifference pricing by dynamic convex risk measures, which are given as solutions of backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs), to establish a link between these two approaches to risk measurement. We derive a characterization of the implied volatility in terms of the solution of a nonlinear PDE and provide a small time-to-maturity expansion and numerical solutions. This procedure allows to choose convex risk measures in a conveniently parametrized class, distorted entropic dynamic risk measures, which we introduce here, such that the asymptotic volatility skew under indifference pricing can be matched with the market skew.
Measuring reporting verifying. A primer on MRV for nationally appropriate mitigation actions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hinostroza, M. (ed.); Luetken, S.; Holm Olsen, K. (Technical Univ. of Denmark. UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark)); Aalders, E.; Pretlove, B.; Peters, N. (Det Norske Veritas, Hellerup (Denmark))
The requirements for measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) of nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) are one of the crucial topics on the agenda of international negotiations to address climate change mitigation. According to agreements so far, the general guidelines for domestic MRV are to be developed by Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA)1. Further, the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) will be conducting international consultations and analysis (ICA) of biennial update reports (BUR) to improve transparency of mitigation actions, which should be measured, reported and verified. 2. What is clear from undergoing discussions both at SBSTA and at SBI is that MRV for NAMAs should not be a burden for controlling greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions connected to economic activities. Instead, the MRV process should facilitate mitigation actions; encourage the redirection of investments and address concerns regarding carbon content of emission intensive operations of private and public companies and enterprises worldwide. While MRV requirements are being shaped within the Convention, there are a number of initiatives supporting developing countries moving forward with NAMA development and demonstration activities. How these actions shall be measured, reported and verified, however, remain unanswered. MRV is not new. It is present in most existing policies and frameworks related to climate change mitigation. With an aim to contribute to international debate and capacity building on this crucial issue, the UNEP Risoe Centre in cooperation with UNDP, are pleased to present this publication that through the direct collaboration with Det Norske Veritas (DNV) builds on existing MRV practices in current carbon markets; provides insights on how MRV for NAMAs can be performed and identifies elements and drivers to be considered when designing adequate MRV systems for NAMAs in developing countries. This primer is the second contribution in the emerging area of NAMAs and MRV. It is complemented by a recent publication on Low Carbon Development Strategies and NAMAs. (Author)
On a Convex Measure of Drawdown Risk
Goldberg, Lisa R.; Mahmoud, Ola
Maximum drawdown, the largest cumulative loss from peak to trough, is one of the most widely used indicators of risk in the fund management industry, but one of the least developed in the context of probabilistic risk metrics. We formalize drawdown risk as Conditional Expected Drawdown (CED), which is the tail mean of maximum drawdown distributions. We show that CED is a degree one positive homogenous risk measure, so that it can be attributed to factors; and convex, so that...
Developing a scientific procedure for community based hazard mapping and risk mitigation
Verrier, M.
As an international exchange student from the Geological Sciences Department at San Diego State University (SDSU), I joined the KKN-PPM program at Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM), Yogyakarta, Indonesia, in July 2011 for 12 days (July 4th to July 16th) of its two month duration (July 4th to August 25th). The KKN-PPM group I was attached was designated 154 and was focused in Plosorejo Village, Karanganyar, Kerjo, Central Java, Indonesia. The mission of KKN-PPM 154 was to survey Plosorejo village for existing landslides, to generate a simple hazard susceptibility map that can be understood by local villagers, and then to begin dissemination of that map into the community. To generate our susceptibility map we first conducted a geological survey of the existing landslides in the field study area, with a focus on determining landslide triggers and gauging areas for susceptibility for future landslides. The methods for gauging susceptibility included lithological observation, the presence of linear cracking, visible loss of structural integrity in structures such as villager homes, as well as collaboration with local residents and with the local rescue and response team. There were three color distinctions used in representing susceptibility which were green, where there is no immediate danger of landslide damage; orange, where transportation routes are at risk of being disrupted by landslides; and red, where imminent landslide potential puts a home in direct danger. The landslide inventory and susceptibility data was compiled into digital mediums such as CorelDraw, ArcGIS and Google Earth. Once a technical map was generated, we presented it to the village leadership for confirmation and modification based on their experience. Finally, we began to use the technical susceptibility map to draft evacuation routes and meeting points in the event of landslides, as well as simple susceptibility maps that can be understood and utilized by local villagers. Landslide mitigation projects that are being conducted alongside the community hazard map include marking evacuation routes with painted bamboo signs, creating a meaningful landslide awareness mural, and installing simple early warning systems that detect land movement and alert residents that evacuation routes should be used. KKN-PPM is scheduled to continue until August 25th, 2011. In the future, research will be done into using the model for community based hazard mapping outlined here in the Geological Sciences Department at SDSU to increase georisk awareness and improve mitigation of landslides in local areas of need such as Tijuana, Mexico.
75 FR 34453 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies; Notice of Public Meeting; Reopening of Comment Period
...Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS), REMS Assessments...Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS), REMS Assessments...guidance, and in the development of future guidances...pharmacists are also provided educational materials so that they...be monitored for the development of undesirable...
Physical Vulnerability Assessment Based on Fluid and Classical Mechanics to Support Cost-Benefit Analysis of Flood Risk Mitigation Strategies
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Claudio Volcan
Full Text Available The impacts of flood events that occurred in autumn 2011 in the Italian regions of Liguria and Tuscany revived the engagement of the public decision-maker to enhance the synergy of flood control and land use planning. In this context, the design of efficient flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation critically relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the fixed and mobile elements exposed to flood hazard. In this paper we develop computation schemes enabling dynamic vulnerability and risk analyses for a broad typological variety of elements at risk. To show their applicability, a series of prime examples are discussed in detail, e.g. a bridge deck impacted by the flood and a car, first displaced and subsequently exposed to collision with fixed objects. We hold the view that it is essential that the derivation of the computational schemes to assess the vulnerability of endangered objects should be based on classical and fluid mechanics. In such a way, we aim to complement from a methodological perspective the existing, mainly empirical, vulnerability and risk assessment approaches and to support the design of effective flood risk mitigation strategies by defusing the main criticalities within the systems prone to flood risk.
Stimulating household flood risk mitigation investments through insurance and subsidies: an Agent-Based Modelling approach
Haer, Toon; Botzen, Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen
In the period 1998-2009, floods triggered roughly 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard in Europe. Climate change and socio/economic trends are expected to further aggrevate floods losses in many regions. Research shows that flood risk can be significantly reduced if households install protective measures, and that the implementation of such measures can be stimulated through flood insurance schemes and subsidies. However, the effectiveness of such incentives to stimulate implementation of loss-reducing measures greatly depends on the decision process of individuals and is hardly studied. In our study, we developed an Agent-Based Model that integrates flood damage models, insurance mechanisms, subsidies, and household behaviour models to assess the effectiveness of different economic tools on stimulating households to invest in loss-reducing measures. Since the effectiveness depends on the decision making process of individuals, the study compares different household decision models ranging from standard economic models, to economic models for decision making under risk, to more complex decision models integrating economic models and risk perceptions, opinion dynamics, and the influence of flood experience. The results show the effectiveness of incentives to stimulate investment in loss-reducing measures for different household behavior types, while assuming climate change scenarios. It shows how complex decision models can better reproduce observed real-world behaviour compared to traditional economic models. Furthermore, since flood events are included in the simulations, the results provide an analysis of the dynamics in insured and uninsured losses for households, the costs of reducing risk by implementing loss-reducing measures, the capacity of the insurance market, and the cost of government subsidies under different scenarios. The model has been applied to the City of Rotterdam in The Netherlands.
FIELD NOTES: PEOPLE, PROGRAMS, & POLICIES* Farmers' Market Produce Delivery Program for Mitigating Nutritional Risk in Older Adults
Dover, Sally E.; Buys, David R.; Allocca, Sally; Locher, Julie L.
Community-dwelling older adults in disadvantaged neighborhoods may face nutritional risks not mitigated by existing programs. The Senior Market Basket Program, administered by nonprofit organization P.E.E.R., Inc., is a unique approach to serving community-dwelling senior adults and a valuable model for integrating targeted social services into local food systems. The program ensures access to fresh produce during the growing season for a defined target population.
Physical Vulnerability Assessment Based on Fluid and Classical Mechanics to Support Cost-Benefit Analysis of Flood Risk Mitigation Strategies
Claudio Volcan; Bruno Mazzorana; Laura Levaggi; Omar Formaggioni
The impacts of flood events that occurred in autumn 2011 in the Italian regions of Liguria and Tuscany revived the engagement of the public decision-maker to enhance the synergy of flood control and land use planning. In this context, the design of efficient flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation critically relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the fixed and mobile elements exposed to flood hazard. In this paper we develop computation schemes enabling dyn...
Engineering aspects of earthquake risk mitigation: Lessons from management of recent earthquakes, and consequential mudflows and landslides
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The Proceedings contain 30 selected presentations given at the Second and Third UNDRO/USSR Training Seminars: Engineering Aspects of Earthquake Risk Assessment and Mitigation of Losses, held in Dushanbe, October 1988; and Lessons from Management of Recent Earthquakes, and Consequential Mudflows and Landslides, held in Moscow, October 1989. The annexes to the document provide information on the participants, the work programme and the resolution adopted at each of the seminars. Refs, figs and tabs
Intensity ramp-up: 2011 experience - Limitations, mitigation, risks, strategy, pushing it in 2012, 1380 in 3 weeks?
Zerlauth, M; Wenninger, J
This paper will discuss the experience with ramping up the beam intensities in the early days of the 2011 run and after the subsequent technical stops. Weak points and limitations are being identified and their possible mitigations evaluated. In view of the risks and drawbacks of a too aggressive approach, possible improvements of the applied strategy whilst maintaining the required validation points for the various equipment and machine protection systems (MPS) are being discussed.
Measures of risk importance and their applications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This work is part of a project being conducted for the Division of Risk Analysis (DRA) of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The objectives of the project are to evaluate the importances of containment, the different safety functions, and other various contributers as assessed in probabilistic risk analyses and to identify generic conclusions regarding the importances. Effective display of the importances is an important part of these objectives. To address these objectives, measures of risk importance need to be first identified and then they need to be evaluated for the different risk analyses which have been performed. This report describes the risk importance measures that were defined and were applied to the risk analyses which were performed as part of the Reactor Safety Study Methodology Applications Program (RSSMAP). The risk importance measures defined in this report measure the importance of features not only with regard to risk reduction but also with regard to reliability assurance, or risk maintenance. The goal of this report is not to identify new mathematical formulas for risk importance but to show how importance measures can be interpreted and can be applied
Measuring social risk and determining its acceptability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The implementation of a nuclear waste management technology raises several issues concerning the regulation of social risk. This paper presents a decision analytic approach to resolving some of those issues. A methodology for developing a radiological risk measure is presented, and several approaches to defining acceptable levels of that risk measure are considered. The methodology presented is oriented toward the development of radiological performance objectives for use as guidance in the drafting of regulations
Study on severe accident mitigation measures for the development of PWR SAMG
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
In the development of the Severe Accident Management Guidelines (SAMG), it is very important to choose the main severe accident sequences and verify their mitigation measures. In this article, Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA), Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR), Station Blackout (SBO), and Anticipated Transients without Scram (ATWS) in PWR with 300 MWe are selected as the main severe accident sequences. The core damage progressions induced by the above-mentioned sequences are analyzed using SCDAP/RELAP5. To arrest the core damage progression and mitigate the consequences of severe accidents, the measures for the severe accident management (SAM) such as feed and bleed and depressurizations are verified using the calculation. The results suggest that implementing feed and bleed and depressurization could be an effective way to arrest the severe accident sequences in PWR. (authors)
Portfolio Optimization with Spectral Measures of Risk
Carlo, A; Carlo, Acerbi; Prospero, Simonetti
We study Spectral Measures of Risk from the perspective of portfolio optimization. We derive exact results which extend to general Spectral Measures M_phi the Pflug--Rockafellar--Uryasev methodology for the minimization of alpha--Expected Shortfall. The minimization problem of a spectral measure is shown to be equivalent to the minimization of a suitable function which contains additional parameters, but displays analytical properties (piecewise linearity and convexity in all arguments, absence of sorting subroutines) which allow for efficient minimization procedures. In doing so we also reveal a new picture where the classical risk--reward problem a la Markowitz (minimizing risks with constrained returns or maximizing returns with constrained risks) is shown to coincide to the unconstrained optimization of a single suitable spectral measure. In other words, minimizing a spectral measure turns out to be already an optimization process itself, where risk minimization and returns maximization cannot be disentan...
The Measuring Method of Risk with Energy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xin Lin
Full Text Available Since Harry. M. Markowitz published 'portfolio Selection' (1952, financial economists have proposed many methods to measure risk such as variant, downside-variant, average
absolute deviation, maximum deviation, VaR and so on. However, these methods share a common limitation, which only consider moment of the price, not consider the influence of exchange quantity. In common situation, these methods and their financial theory models can help investors prevent and scatter the risks effectively, but they are no effective to
prevent the financial crisis such as Southeast Asia financial in1997 and LTCM crisis in 1998. In this paper, a new method of measuring risk called energy-risk has been proposed. The aim to this method is to respond the usual risk as well as the risk caused by unexpected event and to prevent the risks under any circumstances effectively.
Using inferred drivers of discarding behaviour to evaluate discard mitigation measures
Catchpole, T. L.; Feekings, J. P.; Madsen, N.; Palialexis, A.; Vassilopoulou, V.; Valeiras, J.; Garcia, T; Nikolic, Natacha; Rochet, Marie-joelle
Discards refer to the part of the catch not retained on board during commercial fishing operations, but returned to the sea. The proposed European Union Common Fisheries Policy reform, to be implemented in 2014, sets out a gradual elimination of discards by reducing unwanted catches and ensuring that all catches are landed. To develop successful discard mitigation measures, it is necessary to identify the reasons for discarding. Here, we have developed a simple model that can be appl...
Climate Change Variability and Mitigating Measures by Rural Dwellers: the Perception of Arable Farmers
Albert, C. O.; I. A. Okidim
The study investigated the perception of arable crop farmers on climate change variability and the mitigating measures taken by them. It was carried out in Ahoada-East Local Government Area of Rivers State. Interview schedule was used to elicit information from the respondents. Proportionate sampling technique was employed to select ninety arable crop farmers from the study area. Data collected were analyzed using descriptive statistics and simple Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression at 0.0...
Measurement requirements for a near-Earth asteroid impact mitigation demonstration mission
Wolters, Stephen D.; Ball, Andrew J.; Wells, Nigel; Saunders, Christopher; McBride, Neil
A concept for an Impact Mitigation Preparation Mission, called Don Quijote, is to send two spacecraft to a Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA): an Orbiter and an Impactor. The Impactor collides with the asteroid while the Orbiter measures the resulting change in the asteroid's orbit, by means of a Radio Science Experiment (RSE) carried out before and after impact. Three parallel Phase A studies on Don Quijote were carried out for the European Space Agency: the research presented here ...
Methane mitigation in cities: how new measurements and partnerships can contribute to emissions reduction strategies
Hopkins, F. M.; Bush, S. E.; Ehleringer, J. R.; Lai, C. T.; Rambo, J. P.; Wiggins, E. B.; Miu, J. C. L.; Carranza, V.; Randerson, J. T.
Cities generate a large fraction of anthropogenic methane emissions that are increasing with urbanization and greater reliance on natural gas as fuel. New measurements of methane in cities suggest an as-yet unrealized potential for city-scale methane mitigation. We present high-resolution methane observations from four cities in North America to demonstrate the utility of methane surveys for identifying urban methane sources. We used portable, continuous on-road measurements to determine the spatial distribution of methane in Fairbanks, Los Angeles, Salt Lake City, and San Diego. Across cities, methane tended to be highly concentrated in space, suggesting discrete, point emission sources. Elevated methane levels were found near known emission sources, such as landfills, wastewater treatment facilities, and natural gas-fueled power plants, and revealed the location of fugitive leaks in natural gas infrastructure. The mix of sources and sizes of methane leaks varied among cities, highlighting a need for locally adaptive emissions regulation. Urban methane observations can inform anthropogenic processes in development of methane mitigation strategies. We discuss specific examples of how continuous atmospheric measurements can enhance the design of mitigation strategies in these cities, and potential contributions of these approaches to cross-sectoral efforts to reduce methane emissions at the city level.
Evaluation of innovative means of hydrogen risk mitigation in thermonuclear fusion reactors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
One of the main accidents in ITER-type thermonuclear fusion reactors is the loss of coolant leading to hydrogen production. Within the framework of the studies on the ITER fusion reactor, a mitigation strategy for this risk must be devised by focusing on a system, which can be placed near the hydrogen source. The uncertainty as to the air content during such a scenario forbids the use of classic methods based on the hydrogen/oxygen reaction such as passive catalytic recombiners. Former studies have proposed a process based on the reduction of metallic oxides and more particularly that of the manganese dioxide enhanced by silver oxide mixture. The reaction studied is H2 + MnO2 ? MnO + H2O (reaction enhanced by Ag2O). The purpose is to study the kinetic. The method used consists in comparing the experimental results obtained on the pilot facility CIGNE with those provided by a model. The experimental results were obtained from tests made on a pilot facility with a solid/gas reaction in a fixed bed. These underlined the importance of favoring the solid/gas contact surface. The modeling used in the MITRHY simulation program, coupled to an optimizer helped determine the kinetic parameters and the data on the material and temperature transfers. The kinetic is of first order rate for hydrogen with an activation energy of 29428 J/mol and a kinetic coefficient of 142 m.s-1. Integrated in the MITRHY program, the kinetic parameters were used to simulate the hydrogen elimination in the accident conditions on the ITER experimental reactor. This study achieved a pre-design basis of the device (bed of about 30 cm with grains of a diameter of less than 5 mm) to be implemented. It also underlined the need to favor the specific surface to improved process efficiency. (author)
Sistema Inteligente de Mitigación de Riesgos Intelligent system for risk mitigation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yadira Ruiz Constanten
Full Text Available La acumulación de experiencias en la concepción de proyectos, el surgimiento de organizaciones y estándares dedicados a la planificación y administración de los mismos, han permitido que su desarrollo se haya convertido en una actividad planificada y controlada. La gestión de riesgos es un proceso complejo estrechamente vinculado al dominio que tenga el equipo de desarrollo sobre el tema. De su correcta gestión dependerán gran parte de los resultados, teniendo en cuenta las ventajas que tanto tecnológicas como económicas reportará para el equipo de desarrollo la mitigación de los mismos. Los riesgos han de analizarse para propiciar el aprovechamiento de las diversas oportunidades que puedan ofrecer y de la misma forma, evitar que sean muy severos e irreparables, los daños que puedan provocar. Los sistemas basados en casos (SBC ayudan y agilizan la toma de decisiones simulando las cadenas de razonamiento que realiza un experto para resolver un problema de su dominio. Su vinculación con distintos elementos del proceso de desarrollo de software posibilita la obtención de resultados más acertados a partir del conocimiento que se les introduce basado en la experiencia acumulada. Actualmente el centro de Informatización para la Seguridad Ciudadana ISEC, ha enfrentado dificultades para una rápida y acertada gestión de riesgos. La utilización de las facilidades que brindan los SBC para la gestión de riesgos resultaría ventajoso al brindar las herramientas necesarias para que los líderes de proyecto, basados en experiencias anteriores, realicen una planificación más acertada, teniendo en cuenta los diversos contratiempos que pudieran surgir.the accumulation of experiences in project design, and the emergence of standards organizations and engaged in planning and administration of the same, have allowed their development has become an activity planned and controlled. Risk management during the life cycle of software development is a complex process closely linked to the domain with the development team on the subject. In its correct management will depend largely on the results, taking into account both technological advantages for the team will bring economic development, mitigating them. To have a tool that automates this, streamline the decision-making process, is essential. In Artificial Intelligence there are different knowledge-based techniques that allow solution of problems in different ways. One of the most common techniques is knowledge Based Systems, which are computer systems that use domain knowledge to solve problems pertaining to this. This solution is essentially the same as that obtained by a person experienced in the problem domain. It is of great importance to use the advantages provided by this type of systems for developing applications to streamline the process of managing risks. To this will be discussed in this article, showing that facilitates the use of minimal resources and higher quality.
The Use of the Integrated Medical Model for Forecasting and Mitigating Medical Risks for a Near-Earth Asteroid Mission
Kerstman, Eric; Saile, Lynn; Freire de Carvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Lopez, Vilma
Introduction The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission managers and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight. Methods Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of medical events, crew health metrics, medical resource utilization, and probability estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM can also optimize medical kits within the constraints of mass and volume for specified missions. The IMM was used to forecast medical evacuation and loss of crew life probabilities, as well as crew health metrics for a near-earth asteroid (NEA) mission. An optimized medical kit for this mission was proposed based on the IMM simulation. Discussion The IMM can provide information to the space program regarding medical risks, including crew medical impairment, medical evacuation and loss of crew life. This information is valuable to mission managers and the space medicine community in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies. Exploration missions such as NEA missions will have significant mass and volume constraints applied to the medical system. Appropriate allocation of medical resources will be critical to mission success. The IMM capability of optimizing medical systems based on specific crew and mission profiles will be advantageous to medical system designers. Conclusion The IMM is a decision support tool that can provide estimates of the impact of medical events on human space flight missions, such as crew impairment, evacuation, and loss of crew life. It can be used to support the development of mitigation strategies and to propose optimized medical systems for specified space flight missions. Learning Objectives The audience will learn how an evidence-based decision support tool can be used to help assess risk, develop mitigation strategies, and optimize medical systems for exploration space flight missions.
Temporal Wind Pairs for Space Launch Vehicle Capability Assessment and Risk Mitigation
Decker, Ryan K.; Barbre, Robert E., Jr.
Space launch vehicles incorporate upper-level wind assessments to determine wind effects on the vehicle and for a commit to launch decision. These assessments make use of wind profiles measured hours prior to launch and may not represent the actual wind the vehicle will fly through. Uncertainty in the winds over the time period between the assessment and launch introduces uncertainty in assessment of vehicle controllability and structural integrity that must be accounted for to ensure launch safety. Temporal wind pairs are used in engineering development of allowances to mitigate uncertainty. Five sets of temporal wind pairs at various times (0.75, 1.5, 2, 3 and 4-hrs) at the United States Air Force Eastern Range and Western Range, as well as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Wallops Flight Facility are developed for use in upper-level wind assessments on vehicle performance. Historical databases are compiled from balloon-based and vertically pointing Doppler radar wind profiler systems. Various automated and manual quality control procedures are used to remove unacceptable profiles. Statistical analyses on the resultant wind pairs from each site are performed to determine if the observed extreme wind changes in the sample pairs are representative of extreme temporal wind change. Wind change samples in the Eastern Range and Western Range databases characterize extreme wind change. However, the small sample sizes in the Wallops Flight Facility databases yield low confidence that the sample population characterizes extreme wind change that could occur.
Marginal abatement cost curves and the optimal timing of mitigation measures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Decision makers facing abatement targets need to decide which abatement measures to implement, and in which order. Measure-explicit marginal abatement cost curves depict the cost and abating potential of available mitigation options. Using a simple intertemporal optimization model, we demonstrate why this information is not sufficient to design emission reduction strategies. Because the measures required to achieve ambitious emission reductions cannot be implemented overnight, the optimal strategy to reach a short-term target depends on longer-term targets. For instance, the best strategy to achieve European's ?20% by 2020 target may be to implement some expensive, high-potential, and long-to-implement options required to meet the ?75% by 2050 target. Using just the cheapest abatement options to reach the 2020 target can create a carbon-intensive lock-in and make the 2050 target too expensive to reach. Designing mitigation policies requires information on the speed at which various measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions can be implemented, in addition to the information on the costs and potential of such measures provided by marginal abatement cost curves. - Highlights: • Classification of existing Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACC). • MACCs do not provide separated data on the speed at which measures can be implemented. • Optimal measures to reach a short-term target depend on longer-term targets. • Unique carbon price or aggregated emission-reduction target may be insufficient. • Room for short-term sectoral policies if agents are myopic or governments cannot commit
Valuations and dynamic convex risk measures
Jobert, A.; Rogers, L. C. G.
This paper approaches the definition and properties of dynamic convex risk measures through the notion of a family of concave valuation operators satisfying certain simple and credible axioms. Exploring these in the simplest context of a finite time set and finite sample space, we find natural risk-transfer and time-consistency properties for a firm seeking to spread its risk across a group of subsidiaries.
Investment under Duality Risk Measure
Xu, Zuo Quan
One index satisfies the duality axiom if one agent, who is uniformly more risk-averse than another, accepts a gamble, the latter accepts any less risky gamble under the index. Aumann and Serrano (2008) show that only one index defined for so-called gambles satisfies the duality and positive homogeneity axioms. We call it a duality index. This paper extends the definition of duality index to all outcomes including all gambles, and considers a portfolio selection problem in a ...
Alternative Measures for Modeling Risk and Expected Utility Theory (Risk Adjustment, Measurement and Attitude)
Akin Seber
In this paper, we propose alternative measures for modeling risk to be used in Expected Return (ER) calculations instead of "Utility" of Expected Utility Theory (EUT). These new measures are based on the idea that: First, there is a need to make a Risk-Adjustment to make the risky-alternative comparable with the risk-free alternative. Second, the new measures can be more in congruence with actual risk attitude existing in the market. This is possible by making the Risk-Measurement to be i...
Measurement Decision Risk - The Importance of Definitions
Mimbs, Scott M.
One of the more misunderstood areas of metrology is the Test Uncertainty Ratio (TUR) and the Test Accuracy Ratio (TAR). There have been many definitions over the years, but why are these definitions important to a discussion on measurement decision risk? The importance lies in the clarity of communication. Problems can immediately arise in the application (or misapplication) of the definition of these terms. In other words, while it is important to understand the definitions, it is more important to understand concepts behind the definitions and to be precise in how they are applied. The objective of any measurement is a decision. Measurement Decision Risk is a way to look at the quality of a measurement, and although it is not a new concept, it has generated a lot of attention since its addition as a requirement in the new U.S. National Standard, ANSIINCSL Z540.3-2006. In addition to Measurement Decision Risk as the prime method of managing measurement risk, Z540.3 has added, as a fall-back, an explicit definition for TUR. The impact these new requirements may have on calibration service providers has become the topic of much discussion and in some cases concern. This paper will look at the concepts behind the definitions and how they relate to Measurement Decision Risk. Using common examples, this paper will also provide a comparison of various elements of risk related to measurement science using the concepts of TAR, TUR, accuracy ratios, and Consumer Risk (False Accept Risk). The goal of this paper is to provide a better understanding of their relevance to the measurement decision process.
On representing claims for coherent risk measures
Jacka, Saul
We consider the problem of representing claims for coherent risk measures. For this purpose we introduce the concept of (weak and strong) time-consistency with respect to a portfolio of assets, generalizing the one defined by Delbaen. In a similar way we extend the notion of m-stability, by introducing weak and strong versions. We then prove that the two concepts of m-stability and time-consistency are still equivalent, thus giving necessary and sufficient conditions for a coherent risk measure to be represented by a market with proportional transaction costs. We go on to deduce that, under a separability assumption, any coherent risk measure is strongly time-consistent with respect to a suitably chosen countable portfolio, and show the converse: that any market with proportional transaction costs is equivalent to a market priced by a coherent risk measure, essentially establishing the equivalence of the two concepts.
The influence of governmental mitigation measures on contamination characteristics of PM(2.5) in Beijing.
Chen, Yuan; Schleicher, Nina; Chen, Yizhen; Chai, Fahe; Norra, Stefan
Beijing, the capital of China, has become one of the most air-polluted cities due to its rapid economic growth. Weekly PM2.5 samples-collected continuously from 2007 to 2010-were used to study the contamination characteristics of atmospheric particles and effects of governmental mitigation measures especially since the 2008 Summer Olympic Games. PM2.5 mass concentrations during the sampling period were reduced compared to the previous studies before 2005, although they were still too high in comparison with environmental standards of China and many other countries as well as WHO standards. Results of principle component analysis show that elements of primary anthropogenic origin had an obvious decline while elements mainly from the natural environment kept a relatively stable course. The governmental macro-control measures influenced both anthropogenic and geogenic sources, but they also led to some pollution peaks prior to implementation of the respective measures. Some element concentrations correlated to the restrictiveness of relative measures, especially during different traffic restrictions. The comparison with other countries and international standards shows that there is a long way to go in order to improve air quality in Beijing, and that governmental mitigation measures need to be continued and reinforced. PMID:24887192
NASA Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation Remediation Technology Collaboration Development
Romeo, James
NASA is committed to finding solutions to agency cleanup problems that are better, cheaper, and more effective than the status quo. Unfortunately, some potential solutions involve innovative technologies for which NASA remediation managers may not have a high level of understanding or confidence. Since 2004, NASA's Stennis Space Center (SSC) in Mississippi has been pumping groundwater contaminated with trichloroethylene (TCE) and other halogenated volatile organic compounds (HVOC) from their cleanup location designated "Area G" through extraction wells to an aboveground treatment system. Over time, however, the effectiveness of this treatment strategy has diminished and an alternative approach is needed. In 2012, professionals from NASA's Principal Center for Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) introduced SSC managers to an innovative technology for enhancing the performance of SSC's existing pump and treat system. The technology, generally referred to as in situ chemical oxidation (ISCO), involves slowly and continuously injecting a strong but safe chemical oxidant into the groundwater. Treatment is enhanced by a "surfactant-type effect" which causes residual contamination from saturated soil to be released into the dissolved-phase where it can be readily oxidized. Any dissolved-phase contamination that was not oxidized can be collected by the extraction well network and treated aboveground. SSC was not familiar with the technology so to increase their confidence, TEERM identified a contractor who was willing to demonstrate their product and process at a significantly reduced price. An initial, small-scale demonstration of ISCO began at sse in March 2012 and completed in August 2012. This successful demonstration was followed by three larger-scale ISCO demonstrations between August and December 2012. The contractor's innovative Continuous Injection System (CIS) incorporated "green" and sustainable technologies and practices. A slow injection rate was maintained autonomously by the CIS, eliminating the need for multiple mobilizations of personnel and powered equipment. The CIS was calibrated to deliver only as much reagent as the formation would accept without "short circuiting", minimizing material waste. Public utility water pressure was used to mix, dilute, and inject the reagent. NASA personnel were trained to operate and maintain the system and remote monitoring and injection control capabilities were developed, further reducing the need for contractor mobilizations to the site. An integrated solar photovoltaic panel was used to power the control valves and web monitoring telemetry. SSC provided hydrogen peroxide for the process using their existing supplier for the aboveground pump and treat systems. The only consumable required from the contractor was their proprietary activator to catalyze SSC's peroxide.
A virtual community and cyberinfrastructure for collaboration in volcano research and risk mitigation
Valentine, G. A.
VHub (short for VolcanoHub, and accessible at vhub.org) is an online platform for collaboration in research and training related to volcanoes, the hazards they pose, and risk mitigation. The underlying concept is to provide a mechanism that enables workers to share information with colleagues around the globe; VHub and similar hub technologies could prove very powerful in collaborating and communicating about circum-Pacific volcanic hazards. Collaboration occurs around several different points: (1) modeling and simulation; (2) data sharing; (3) education and training; (4) volcano observatories; and (5) project-specific groups. VHub promotes modeling and simulation in two ways: (1) some models can be implemented on VHub for online execution. This eliminates the need to download and compile a code on a local computer. VHub can provide a central "warehouse" for such models that should result in broader dissemination. VHub also provides a platform that supports the more complex CFD models by enabling the sharing of code development and problem-solving knowledge, benchmarking datasets, and the development of validation exercises. VHub also provides a platform for sharing of data and datasets. The VHub development team is implementing the iRODS data sharing middleware (see irods.org). iRODS allows a researcher to access data that are located at participating data sources around the world (a "cloud" of data) as if the data were housed in a single virtual database. Education and training is another important use of the VHub platform. Audio-video recordings of seminars, PowerPoint slide sets, and educational simulations are all items that can be placed onto VHub for use by the community or by selected collaborators. An important point is that the "manager" of a given educational resource (or any other resource, such as a dataset or a model) can control the privacy of that resource, ranging from private (only accessible by, and known to, specific collaborators) to completely public. Materials for use in the classroom can be shared via VHub. VHub is a very useful platform for project-specific collaborations. With a group site on VHub where collaborators share documents, datasets, maps, and have ongoing discussions using the discussion board function. VHub is funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation, and is participating in development of larger earth-science cyberinfrastructure initiatives (EarthCube), as well as supporting efforts such as the Global Volcano Model.
Measuring Idiosyncratic Risk : Implications for Capital Flows
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sunesen, Eva Rytter
This paper offers two refinements of the traditional risk measure based on the volatility of growth. First, we condition GDP growth on structural characteristics of the host country that move only slowly and therefore can be partly predicted by an investor. Second, we adjust conditional risk for the systematic components due to the global and regional interdependence between alternative investment locations. The decomposition of conditional risk into its systematic and idiosyncratic components reveals that not only are African countries on average characterised by a larger conditional risk than Asian and Latin American countries, but the idiosyncratic risk factor also represents a larger share than in other developing countries. As a final contribution, we search the empirical literature on foreign direct investment and risk in order to determine which of the suggested risk measures provide the best description of idiosyncratic risk. Using a general-to-specific methodology, we find that both economic and political risk factors are important elements in the investment decision. We also find that commercial
Intelligent system for risk mitigation Sistema Inteligente de Mitigación de Riesgos.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yadira Ruiz Constanten
Full Text Available the accumulation of experiences in project design, and the emergence of standards organizations and engaged in planning and administration of the same, have allowed their development has become an activity planned and controlled. Risk management during the life cycle of software development is a complex process closely linked to the domain with the development team on the subject. In its correct management will depend largely on the results, taking into account both technological advantages for the team will bring economic development, mitigating them. To have a tool that automates this, streamline the decision-making process, is essential. In Artificial Intelligence there are different knowledge-based techniques that allow solution of problems in different ways. One of the most common techniques is knowledge Based Systems, which are computer systems that use domain knowledge to solve problems pertaining to this. This solution is essentially the same as that obtained by a person experienced in the problem domain. It is of great importance to use the advantages provided by this type of systems for developing applications to streamline the process of managing risks. To this will be discussed in this article, showing that facilitates the use of minimal resources and higher quality.
La acumulación de experiencias en la concepción de proyectos, el surgimiento de organizaciones y estándares dedicados a la planificación y administración de los mismos, han permitido que su desarrollo se haya convertido en una actividad planificada y controlada. La gestión de riesgos es un proceso complejo estrechamente vinculado al dominio que tenga el equipo de desarrollo sobre el tema. De su correcta gestión dependerán gran parte de los resultados, teniendo en cuenta las ventajas que tanto tecnológicas como económicas reportará para el equipo de desarrollo la mitigación de los mismos. Los riesgos han de analizarse para propiciar el aprovechamiento de las diversas oportunidades que puedan ofrecer y de la misma forma, evitar que sean muy severos e irreparables, los daños que puedan provocar. Los sistemas basados en casos (SBC ayudan y agilizan la toma de decisiones simulando las cadenas de razonamiento que realiza un experto para resolver un problema de su dominio. Su vinculación con distintos elementos del proceso de desarrollo de software posibilita la obtención de resultados más acertados a partir del conocimiento que se les introduce basado en la experiencia acumulada. Actualmente el centro de Informatización para la Seguridad Ciudadana ISEC, ha enfrentado dificultades para una rápida y acertada gestión de riesgos. La utilización de las facilidades que brindan los SBC para la gestión de riesgos resultaría ventajoso al brindar las herramientas necesarias para que los líderes de proyecto, basados en experiencias anteriores, realicen una planificación más acertada, teniendo en cuenta los diversos contratiempos que pudieran surgir.
Towards real-time risk mitigation for NPP in Switzerland: the potential role of EEW and OEF.
Cauzzi, Carlo; Wiemer, Stefan; Behr, Yannik; Clinton, John; Renault, Philippe; Le Guenan, Thomas; Douglas, John; Woessner, Jochen; Biro, Yesim; Caprio, Marta; Cua, Georgia
Spurred by the research activities being carried out within the EC-funded project REAKT (Strategies and Tools for Real Time Earthquake Risk Reduction, FP7, contract no. 282862, 2011-2014, www.reaktproject.eu), we present herein the key elements to understanding the potential benefits of routinely using Earthquake Early Warning and Operational Earthquake Forecasting methods to mitigate the seismic risk at NPP in Switzerland. The advantages of using the aforementioned real-time risk reduction tools are critically discussed based on the limitations of the current scientific knowledge and technology, as well as on the costs associated to both system maintenance and machine- or human-triggered actions following an alert. Basic inputs to this discussion are, amongst others: a) the performances of the Swiss seismic network (http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/monitor, where SeisComP3 is used as earthquake monitoring software) and the selected EEW algorithm (the Virtual Seismologist, VS, http://www.seiscomp3.org/doc/seattle/2013.200/apps/vs.html), in terms of correct detections, false alerts, and missed events; b) the reliability of time-dependent hazard scenarios for the region of interest; c) a careful assessment of the frequency of occurrence of critical warnings based on the local and regional seismicity; d) the identification of the mitigation actions and their benefits and costs for the stakeholders.
Seafarer fatigue: a review of risk factors, consequences for seafarers' health and safety and options for mitigation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jepsen, JØrgen Riis; Zhao, Zhiwei
Background: The consequences of fatigue for the health and safety of seafarers has caused concern in the industry and among academics, and indicates the importance of further research into risk factors and preventive interventions at sea. This review gives an overview of the key issues relating to seafarer fatigue. Materials and methods: A literature study was conducted aiming to collect publications that address risk factors for fatigue, short-term and long-term consequences for health and safety, and options for fatigue mitigation at sea. Due to the limited number of publications that deals with seafarers, experiences from other populations sharing the same exposures (e.g. shift work) were also included when appropriate. Results: Work at sea involves multiple risk factors for fatigue, which in addition to acute effects (e.g., impaired cognition, accidents) contributes through autonomic, immunologic and metabolic pathways to the development of chronic diseases that are particularly prevalent in seafarers. Conclusions: Taking into account the frequency of seafarer fatigue and the severity of its consequences, one should look into the efficacy of the current legislative framework and the industry's compliance, the manning of the international merchant fleet, and optimised working, living and sleeping conditions at sea. Considering circumstances at sea, e.g. working in shifts and crossing time zones, that cannot be altered, further assessment of the potentials of preventive interventions including fatigue prediction tools and individual fatigue mitigation management systems is recommended.
Recommendations to mitigate against human health risks incurred due to energetic particle irradiation beyond low earth orbit/BLEO
McKenna-Lawlor, Susan; Bhardwaj, Anil; Ferrari, Franco; Kuznetsov, Nikolay; Lal, Ajay K.; Li, Yinghui; Nagamatsu, Aiko; Nymmik, Rikho; Panasyuk, Michael; Petrov, Vladislav; Reitz, Günther; Pinsky, Lawrence; Shukor, Muszaphar (Sheikh); Singhvi, Ashok K.; Straube, Ulrich; Tomi, Leena; Lawrence, Townsend
An account is provided of the main sources of energetic particle radiation in interplanetary space (Galactic Cosmic Radiation and Solar Energetic Particles) and career dose limits presently utilized by NASA to mitigate against the cancer and non-cancer effects potentially incurred by astronauts due to irradiation by these components are presented. Certain gaps in knowledge that presently militate against mounting viable human exploration in deep space due to the inherent health risks are identified and recommendations made as to how these gaps might be closed within a framework of global international cooperation.
Benthic community recovery from brine impact after the implementation of mitigation measures.
Del-Pilar-Ruso, Yoana; Martinez-Garcia, Elena; Giménez-Casalduero, Francisca; Loya-Fernández, Angel; Ferrero-Vicente, Luis Miguel; Marco-Méndez, Candela; de-la-Ossa-Carretero, Jose Antonio; Sánchez-Lizaso, José Luis
In many regions, seawater desalination is a growing industry that has its impact on benthic communities. This study analyses the effect on benthic communities of a mitigation measure applied to a brine discharge, using polychaete assemblages as indicator. An eight-year study was conducted at San Pedro del Pinatar (SE Spain) establishing a grid of 12 sites at a depth range of 29-38 m during autumn. Brine discharge started in 2006 and produced a significant decrease in abundance, richness and diversity of polychaete families at the location closest to the discharge, where salinity reached 49. In 2010, a diffuser was deployed at the end of the pipeline in order to increase the mixing, to reduce the impact on benthic communities. After implementation of this mitigation measure, the salinity measured close to discharge was less than 38.5 and a significant recovery in polychaete richness and diversity was detected, to levels similar to those before the discharge. A less evident recovery in abundance was also observed, probably due to different recovery rates of polychaete families. Some families like Paraonidae and Magelonidae were more tolerant to this impact. Others like Syllidae and Capitellidae recovered quickly, although still affected by the discharge, while some families such as Sabellidae and Cirratulidae appeared to recover more slowly. PMID:25543242
The costs and efficacy of sediment mitigation measures for representative farm types across England and Wales
Collins, A. L.; Zhang, Y.; Naden, P.
A major collaborative research project in the UK is delivering new science to support improved targeting of on-farm pollution mitigation measures for the benefit of freshwater ecology. One important aspect of the project concerns a national scale evaluation of the costs and efficacy of packages of sediment mitigation measures which can be delivered over and above the existing implementation of abatement through various policy instruments including advice and new targeted agri-environment schemes. The assessment includes typical farm types present across England and Wales. Outputs from this assessment of costs and efficacy will eventually be used to help model the potential for closing the sediment pollution gap in those water bodies currently failing water quality targets due to sediment loss from agriculture. Some preliminary uncertainty ranges in costs (-£146,402 to £175,631) and effectiveness (0-80%) associated with a potential policy scenario implementing a large number (up to 93) of abatement measures at 95% uptake are presented in this paper.
Marine and Hydrokinetic Renewable Energy Devices, Potential Navigational Hazards and Mitigation Measures
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cool, Richard, M.; Hudon, Thomas, J.; Basco, David, R.; Rondorf, Neil, E.
On April 15, 2008, the Department of Energy (DOE) issued a Funding Opportunity Announcement for Advanced Water Power Projects which included a Topic Area for Marine and Hydrokinetic Renewable Energy Market Acceleration Projects. Within this Topic Area, DOE identified potential navigational impacts of marine and hydrokinetic renewable energy technologies and measures to prevent adverse impacts on navigation as a sub-topic area. DOE defines marine and hydrokinetic technologies as those capable of utilizing one or more of the following resource categories for energy generation: ocean waves; tides or ocean currents; free flowing water in rivers or streams; and energy generation from the differentials in ocean temperature. PCCI was awarded Cooperative Agreement DE-FC36-08GO18177 from the DOE to identify the potential navigational impacts and mitigation measures for marine hydrokinetic technologies. A technical report addressing our findings is available on this Science and Technology Information site under the Product Title, "Marine and Hydrokinetic Renewable Energy Technologies: Potential Navigational Impacts and Mitigation Measures". This product is a brochure, primarily for project developers, that summarizes important issues in that more comprehensive report, identifies locations where that report can be downloaded, and identifies points of contact for more information.
Use of diagnostic measurements to enhance the selection and effectiveness of radon mitigation for detached dwellings. Technical report (Final)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The paper discusses the use of diagnostic measurements to enhance the selection and effectiveness of radon mitigation for detached dwellings. The development of appropriate and cost-effective radon mitigation for a specific house is ultimately tied to the degree to which the authors understand the source of the indoor radon problem, how house characteristics affect radon-entry rates, and how candidate mitigation systems influence radon entry processes. Diagnostic measurements and procedures allow for qualitative and quantitative assessments of water, materials, and soil as sources of radon and the assessment of soil-gas-borne radon flow potentials related to indoor/outdoor differential pressure driving forces and soil-air permeability. The discussed diagnostics are being developed and tested as part of an intensive State and Federal government study of radon entry and mitigation processes in 14 Piedmont, New Jersey houses
Engineering Biochar Hydrophobicity to Mitigate Risk of Top-Soil Erosion
Kinney, T. J.; Dean, M. R.; Hockaday, W. C.; Masiello, C. A.
The pyrolysis of biomass is a net carbon negative method of sequestering atmospheric carbon as recalcitrant black carbon. The resulting solid product, called biochar, is likely to improve agricultural soils when used as a soil conditioner in sustainable land management practice. Biochar has been shown to improve crop yields, improve water-holding capacity in sandy soils, increase cation exchange capacity (CEC), and retain nutrients from fertilization longer than soils unamended with biochar. Biochar undoubtedly has high potential as both a carbon management tool and a tool to increase global food production. However, little is understood about possible side effects of biochar in agricultural soils such as ecosystem toxicity, interactions with biota, and modification of soil hydrologic properties, such as permeability. The hydrophobicity of a soil determines how easily precipitation can permeate soil pores. Water that fails to permeate is redirected as runoff, responsible for the detachment and transport of nutrient-rich topsoil particles. Mitigating top-soil erosion is an important aspect of sustainable land management. Biochar, primarily composed of condensed aromatic structures, is a hydrophobic material and incorporating it into agricultural soils may act to alter soil hydrology through multiple avenues. These include a likely increase in soil water-holding capacity (a positive outcome) and a potential increase in soil hydrophobicity (a negative outcome). In an effort to understand how to engineer reduced biochar hydrophobicity, we investigated the hydrophobicity of biochars as a function of biomass feedstock, pyrolysis temperatures, and post-pyrolysis chemical treatments. We used Water Drop Penetration Time (WDPT) and Molarity of an Ethanol Drop (MED) tests to measure hydrophobicity, and FTIR, CPMAS-NMR, and N2-BET to probe the surface chemistry, bulk chemistry, and surface area of various biochars, respectively. We used post-pyrolysis chemical treatments of biochar to study the origin of biochar hydrophobicity and to assess the possibility of reducing hydrophobicity prior to soil amendment. We used correlative analysis to study the relationship between hydrophobicity, biomass and pyrolysis characteristics, as well as chemical treatments. Future work will focus on engineering designer biochars which minimize hydrophobicity while maximizing positive benefits, such as ion exchange capacity.
Risk measures with non-Gaussian fluctuations
Bormetti, G; Montagna, G; Nicrosini, O
Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modeling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student-$t$ (or Tsallis) distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-form solutions for Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall are obtained and standard formulae known in the literature under the normality assumption are recovered as a special case. The implications of the approach for risk management are demonstrated through an empirical analysis of financial time series from the Italian stock market. Detailed comparison with the results of the widely used procedures of quantitative finance, such as parametric normal approach, RiskMetrics methodology and historical simulation, as well as with previous findings in the literature, are shown and commented. Particular attention is paid to quantify the size of the errors affecting the risk measures obtaine...
Quantitative Measures of Mineral Supply Risk
Long, K. R.
Almost all metals and many non-metallic minerals are traded internationally. An advantage of global mineral markets is that minerals can be obtained from the globally lowest-cost source. For example, one rare-earth element (REE) mine in China, Bayan Obo, is able to supply most of world demand for rare earth elements at a cost significantly less than its main competitors. Concentration of global supplies at a single mine raises significant political risks, illustrated by China's recent decision to prohibit the export of some REEs and severely limit the export of others. The expected loss of REE supplies will have a significant impact on the cost and production of important national defense technologies and on alternative energy programs. Hybrid vehicles and wind-turbine generators, for example, require REEs for magnets and batteries. Compact fluorescent light bulbs use REE-based phosphors. These recent events raise the general issue of how to measure the degree of supply risk for internationally sourced minerals. Two factors, concentration of supply and political risk, must first be addressed. Concentration of supply can be measured with standard economic tools for measuring industry concentration, using countries rather than firms as the unit of analysis. There are many measures of political risk available. That of the OECD is a measure of a country's commitment to rule-of-law and enforcement of contracts, as well as political stability. Combining these measures provides a comparative view of mineral supply risk across commodities and identifies several minerals other than REEs that could suddenly become less available. Combined with an assessment of the impact of a reduction in supply, decision makers can use these measures to prioritize risk reduction efforts.
Evaluation of strategies for promoting effective radon mitigation. Risk communication and economic research series. Final report
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The Environmental Protection Agency has estimated that as many as 20,000 lung cancer deaths per year in the United States can be attributed to exposure to radon gas. The report evaluates alternative strategies for motivating people to test for radon gas in their homes and to mitigate if necessary. Specifically, two separate radon information and awareness programs were evaluated, one targeted to the general population in the Washington, D.C. area and the other to home buyers in the Boulder, Colorado area. The results suggest that a home buyer program is likely to be far more effective in terms of effective remediation to reduce home radon levels than a program aimed at the general population. The report discusses the empirical findings and develops a recommendation for increasing the effectiveness of radon awareness and mitigation programs
Money Matters: Mitigating risk to spark private investments in energy efficiency
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Scaling-up investment in energy efficiency is essential to achieving a sustainable energy future. Despite energy efficiency's recognised advantages as a bankable investment with immense climate change mitigation benefits, most of the energy efficiency potential remains untapped and the investment gap to achieve climate goals is tremendous. This report seeks to improve understanding as to why this is so, and what can be done about it.
Educational Approach to Seismic Risk Mitigation in Indian Himalayas -Hazard Map Making Workshops at High Schools-
Koketsu, K.; Oki, S.; Kimura, M.; Chadha, R. K.; Davuluri, S.
How can we encourage people to take preventive measures against damage risks and empower them to take the right actions in emergencies to save their lives? The conventional approach taken by scientists had been disseminating intelligible information on up-to-date seismological knowledge. However, it has been proven that knowledge alone does not have enough impact to modify people's behaviors in emergencies (Oki and Nakayachi, 2012). On the other hand, the conventional approach taken by practitioners had been to conduct emergency drills at schools or workplaces. The loss of many lives from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake has proven that these emergency drills were not enough to save people's lives, unless they were empowered to assess the given situation on their own and react flexibly. Our challenge is to bridge the gap between knowledge and practice. With reference to best practices observed in Tohoku, such as The Miracles of Kamaishi, our endeavor is to design an effective Disaster Preparedness Education Program that is applicable to other disaster-prone regions in the world, even with different geological, socio-economical and cultural backgrounds. The key concepts for this new approach are 1) empowering individuals to take preventive actions to save their lives, 2) granting community-based understanding of disaster risks and 3) building a sense of reality and relevancy to disasters. With these in mind, we held workshops at some high schools in the Lesser Himalayan Region, combining lectures with an activity called "Hazard Map Making" where students proactively identify and assess the hazards around their living areas and learn practical strategies on how to manage risks. We observed the change of awareness of the students by conducting a preliminary questionnaire survey and interviews after each session. Results strongly implied that the significant change of students' attitudes towards disaster preparedness occurred not by the lectures of scientific knowledge, but after completing the whole program of activities. Students closed their presentation by spontaneously adding messages to others about importance of life and preparedness. In this presentation, we share good practices in terms of program design and facilitation that encouraged the transition of participants from a learner to an actor.
Climate Change Variability and Mitigating Measures by Rural Dwellers: the Perception of Arable Farmers
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
C. O. Albert
Full Text Available The study investigated the perception of arable crop farmers on climate change variability and the mitigating measures taken by them. It was carried out in Ahoada-East Local Government Area of Rivers State. Interview schedule was used to elicit information from the respondents. Proportionate sampling technique was employed to select ninety arable crop farmers from the study area. Data collected were analyzed using descriptive statistics and simple Ordinary Least Square (OLS regression at 0.05 significant level was used to test the hypothesis. The findings from the study revealed that female dominated arable crop, and have been farming for the past 12 years. A higher percentage of the arable farmers were aware of climate change and were of the opinion that climate change was caused by bush burning, desertification, clearing of land for agriculture and act of gods. The effects of climate change on arable crops were poor/low yield, increased incidence of pest and diseases and induce spoilage of crops very fast. The mitigating strategies adopted by arable farmers to reduce the effects of climate change on their crops were, early harvesting of crops and mixed farming. Excessive rainfall and sunshine which were some of the signs of climate change affect arable crops when planted, which had led to low yield.
Evaluation of possible mitigation measures to prevent introduction and spread of African swine fever virus through wild boar
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
European Food Safety Authority
Full Text Available This scientific report has been prepared in response to a request for urgent scientific and technical assistance under Art 31 of Regulation (EC No 178/2002, in relation to possible mitigation measures to prevent introduction and spread of African swine fever virus (ASFV. It was requested to assess the feasibility to drastically reduce the wild boar population by hunting or by the use of traps, and to assess if prevention of movement of wild boars by feeding or by artificial physical barriers reduces the risk of spread of ASFV. No evidence was found in scientific literature proving that wild boar populations can be drastically reduced by hunting or trapping in Europe. The main reasons are the adaptive behaviour of wild boar, compensatory growth of the population and the possible influx of wild boar from adjacent areas. Thus, drastic hunting is not a tool to reduce the risk for introduction and spread of ASFV in wild boar populations. Furthermore, wild boar density thresholds for introduction, spread and persistence of ASFV in the wild boar populations are currently impossible to establish, due to the uncertainty regarding the extent of the spread and maintenance of ASFV, the biases in population datasets, the complex population structures and dynamics. Furthermore, attempts to drastically reduce wild boar populations may even increase transmission and facilitate progressive geographical spread of ASFV, since intensive hunting pressure on wild boar populations leads to dispersion of groups and individuals. Artificial feeding of wild boar might increase the risk of ASFV spread. Fencing can restrict wild boar movements, however further knowledge of the ASF epidemiology and spatial distribution of wild boar is required to identify the areas where fencing could be used as one possible element of a control programme and to assess the feasibility of its implementation.
Damage-reducing measures to manage flood risks in a changing climate
Kreibich, Heidi; Bubeck, Philip; Van Vliet, Mathijs; De Moel, Hans
Damage due to floods has increased during the last few decades, and further increases are expected in several regions due to climate change and a growing vulnerability. To address the projected increase in flood risk, a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures is considered as a promising adaptation strategy. Such a combination takes into account that flood defence systems may fail, and prepare for unexpected crisis situations via land-use planning, building construction, evacuation and disaster response. Non-structural flood risk mitigation measures like shielding with water shutters or sand bags, building fortification or safeguarding of hazardous substances are often voluntary: they demand self-dependent action by the population at risk (Bubeck et al. 2012; 2013). It is believed that these measures are especially effective in areas with frequent flood events and low flood water levels, but some types of measures showed a significant damage-reducing effect also during extreme flood events, such as the Elbe River flood in August 2002 in Germany (Kreibich et al. 2005; 2011). Despite the growing importance of damage-reducing measures, information is still scarce about factors that motivate people to undertake such measures, the state of implementation of various non-structural measures in different countries and their damage reducing effects. Thus, we collected information and undertook an international review about this topic in the framework of the Dutch KfC project "Climate proof flood risk management". The contribution will present an overview about the available information on damage-reducing measures and draw conclusions for practical flood risk management in a changing climate. References: Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Suu, L. T. T., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2012): Do flood risk perceptions provide useful insights for flood risk management? Findings from central Vietnam. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 5, 4, 295-302 Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Kreibich, H., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2013) Detailed insights into the influence of flood-coping appraisals on mitigation behaviour. Global Environmental Change. DOI:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.05.009. Kreibich, H., Thieken, A. H., Petrow, T., Müller, M., Merz, B. (2005): Flood loss reduction of private households due to building precautionary measures - Lessons Learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002. NHESS, 5, 1, 117-126. Kreibich, H., Christenberger, S., Schwarze, R. (2011) Economic motivation of households to undertake private precautionary measures against floods. NHESS, 11, 2, 309-321.
Radon mitigation in private dwellings. Summary of measures under the National Action Plan against Cancer in Norway 1999-2003
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The report summarizes the remedial measurements carried out under the National Action Plan against Cancer in Norway in the period 1999-2003.The cost effectiveness of the state subsidized remedial measures against radon is evaluated. Other measurements under the National Action Plan against Cancer have also been evaluated, such as measurements of radon in 38.000 dwellings in 158 municipalities, information measures, and actions to increase radon mitigation competence in the building construction industry and in the municipalities. (Author)
Final Report for the ZERT Project: Basic Science of Retention Issues, Risk Assessment & Measurement, Monitoring and Verification for Geologic Sequestration
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Spangler, Lee; Cunningham, Alfred; Lageson, David; Melick, Jesse; Gardner, Mike; Dobeck, Laura; Repasky, Kevin; Shaw, Joseph; Bajura, Richard; McGrail, B Peter; Oldenburg, Curtis M; Wagoner, Jeff; Pawar, Rajesh
ZERT has made major contributions to five main areas of sequestration science: improvement of computational tools; measurement and monitoring techniques to verify storage and track migration of CO{sub 2}; development of a comprehensive performance and risk assessment framework; fundamental geophysical, geochemical and hydrological investigations of CO{sub 2} storage; and investigate innovative, bio-based mitigation strategies.
Marine and Hydrokinetic Renewable Energy Technologies: Potential Navigational Impacts and Mitigation Measures
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cool, Richard, M.; Hudon, Thomas, J.; Basco, David, R.; Rondorf, Neil, E.
On April 15, 2008, the Department of Energy (DOE) issued a Funding Opportunity Announcement for Advanced Water Power Projects which included a Topic Area for Marine and Hydrokinetic Renewable Energy Market Acceleration Projects. Within this Topic Area, DOE identified potential navigational impacts of marine and hydrokinetic renewable energy technologies and measures to prevent adverse impacts on navigation as a sub-topic area. DOE defines marine and hydrokinetic technologies as those capable of utilizing one or more of the following resource categories for energy generation: ocean waves; tides or ocean currents; free flowing water in rivers or streams; and energy generation from the differentials in ocean temperature. PCCI was awarded Cooperative Agreement DE-FC36-08GO18177 from the DOE to identify the potential navigational impacts and mitigation measures for marine hydrokinetic technologies, as summarized herein. The contract also required cooperation with the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) and two recipients of awards (Pacific Energy Ventures and reVision) in a sub-topic area to develop a protocol to identify streamlined, best-siting practices. Over the period of this contract, PCCI and our sub-consultants, David Basco, Ph.D., and Neil Rondorf of Science Applications International Corporation, met with USCG headquarters personnel, with U.S. Army Corps of Engineers headquarters and regional personnel, with U.S. Navy regional personnel and other ocean users in order to develop an understanding of existing practices for the identification of navigational impacts that might occur during construction, operation, maintenance, and decommissioning. At these same meetings, "standard" and potential mitigation measures were discussed so that guidance could be prepared for project developers. Concurrently, PCCI reviewed navigation guidance published by the USCG and international community. This report summarizes the results of this effort, provides guidance in the form of a checklist for assessing the navigational impacts of potential marine and hydrokinetic projects, and provides guidance for improving the existing navigational guidance promulgated by the USCG in Navigation Vessel Inspection Circular 02 07. At the request of the USCG, our checklist and mitigation guidance was written in a generic nature so that it could be equally applied to offshore wind projects. PCCI teleconferenced on a monthly basis with DOE, Pacific Energy Ventures and reVision in order to share information and review work products. Although the focus of our effort was on marine and hydrokinetic technologies, as defined above, this effort drew upon earlier work by the USCG on offshore wind renewable energy installations. The guidance provided herein can be applied equally to marine and hydrokinetic technologies and to offshore wind, which are collectively referred to by the USCG as Renewable Energy Installations.
Concave risk measures in international capital regulation
Kondor, Imre; Szepessy, Andras; Ujvarosi, Tunde
We show that some specific market risk measures implied by current international capital regulation (the Basel Accords and the Capital Adequacy Directive of the European Union) violate the obvious requirement of convexity in some regions in the space of portfolio weights.
New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsk Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX): A research program towards mitigating multiple hazards and risks in Europe
Fleming, K. M.; Zschau, J.; Gasparini, P.; Modaressi, H.; Matrix Consortium
Scientists, engineers, civil protection and disaster managers typically treat natural hazards and risks individually. This leads to the situation where the frequent causal relationships between the different hazards and risks, e.g., earthquakes and volcanos, or floods and landslides, are ignored. Such an oversight may potentially lead to inefficient mitigation planning. As part of their efforts to confront this issue, the European Union, under its FP7 program, is supporting the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project. The focus of MATRIX is on natural hazards, in particular earthquakes, landslides, volcanos, wild fires, storms and fluvial and coastal flooding. MATRIX will endeavour to develop methods and tools to tackle multi-type natural hazards and risks within a common framework, focusing on methodologies that are suited to the European context. The work will involve an assessment of current single-type hazard and risk assessment methodologies, including a comparison and quantification of uncertainties and harmonization of single-type methods, examining the consequence of cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, and a series of test cases. Three test sites are being used to assess the methods developed within the project (Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies), as well as a "virtual city" based on a comprehensive IT platform that will allow scenarios not represented by the test cases to be examined. In addition, a comprehensive dissemination program that will involve national platforms for disaster management, as well as various outreach activities, will be undertaken. The MATRIX consortium consists of ten research institutions (nine European and one Canadian), an end-user (i.e., one of the European national platforms for disaster reduction) and a partner from industry.
The role of the connectivity in the implementation of mitigation measures to reduce the impact of pesticides in the environment under Mediterranean conditions
Fernández-Getino García, Ana Patricia; Alonso Prados, Elena; Alonso Prados, José Luis
Regulation 1107/2009 of the European Commission, establishes the procedure and criteria for approval of active substances and authorization of plant protection products in Europe. One of the aspects to be considered is the assessment of the fate and behavior in the environment of pesticides In this assessment a tiered modeling approach is followed according to the models and scenarios developed by the FOrum for the Co-ordination of pesticide fate models and Their USe, (named as FOCUS models/scenarios). They consider different European scenarios to determine the predicted environmental concentration (PEC) in soil, ground water, surface water and sediment at in-field or edge-of-field scales. During the evaluation process, it is frequent to establish different mitigation measures to reduce the impact of pesticides and to ensure an acceptable risk to non-target species. Parallel to this regulatory process, the directive of sustainable use of pesticides (Directive 2009/128/EC) establishes a framework to reduce the impact of use of pesticides where the implementation of mitigation measures to protect aquatic systems and vulnerable areas will play a main role. Therefore, there is a main need to assess how the risk mitigation measures established at field level under regulation 1107/2009 are acting at landscape/catchment level. The characteristics of the climate, relief and soils in Mediterranean region provoke that soil erosion by water is common at different scales. In arable lands soil rates due to inter-rill, rill and gully erosion may exceed 10 ton/ha/year. This process may be modified by human actions. In this scheme, connectivity concept emerges as essential to understand the transfer process of surface water, sediment and micropollutants throughout catchments and the success of the implemented measures for the sustainable management of pesticides at different scales (field, landscape and catchment levels). In this work a review of published monitoring programs of pesticides (in soil, surface waters and ground waters) in different Mediterranean regions is presented in order to establish the basis to link the connectivity concept with the implementation of risk mitigation programs under these environmental conditions.
Effectiveness of radon mitigation measures in 12 houses 10 years after implementation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Results are presented of radon concentrations in 12 houses 10 years after radon mitigation measures were implemented to reduce elevated radon concentrations in the houses. The houses were part of an earlier radon research project in which the home-owners received remediation advice from radon researchers, and a single contractor carried out the reduction measures. Remediation in nine of the houses was principally by installing an internal sump, in another by installing an external sump, in one by ventilating the crawl-space under the house, and one house had had a naturally ventilated sump system built into the house and later had a fan installed to increase the sub-lab depressurisation. The measurements showed that ten years after radon reduction measurers were implemented, only 3 of 12 houses had radon concentrations under the present-day action level of 200 Bq m-3 (5.4 pCi l-1) in Norway. The results suggest that radon levels should be measured at periodic intervals after remediation, perhaps once every five years, to ensure that concentrations continue to be at acceptable levels. (author)
Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) and Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV). Policy brief
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bakker, S.J.A.; Wuertenberger, L. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands)
Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) is a new instrument being developed under the international climate regime. NAMAs may provide interesting opportunities for Ghana to access international finance, technology and capacity building for policies that promote sustainable development and greenhouse gas reduction. Ghana has already submitted a list of 55 potential NAMAs to the UNFCCC, but further work would be needed before submitting a NAMA proposal for funding. Fast start climate finance may be accessible for the development and implementation of NAMA proposals. As discussed in the international climate negotiations, NAMAs and the support pledged for their implementation will probably have to be measured, reported and verified (MRV-ed) in accordance with guidelines which are to be developed. MRV would provide valuable information to both the Ghanaian government and the international donors regarding the implementation of the NAMA and the support being provided.
Measuring market risk using extreme value theory
Mapa, Dennis S.; Suaiso, Oliver Q.
The adoption of Basel II standards by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas initiates financial institutions to develop value-at-risk (VaR) models to measure market risk. In this paper, two VaR models are considered using the peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach of the extreme value theory: (1) static EVT model which is the straightforward application of POT to the bond benchmark rates; and (2) dynamic EVT model which applies POT to the residuals of the fitted AR-GARCH model. The results are compare...
Debris flow risk mitigation by the means of rigid and flexible barriers – experimental tests and impact analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
L. Canelli
Full Text Available The impact of a debris flow on a structure can have disastrous effects because of the enormous destructive potential of this type of phenomenon. Although the introduction of risk mitigation structures such as the Sabo Dam, the filter dam and more recently flexible barriers is usual, there are very few methods that are universally recognized for the safe design of such structures. This study presents the results of experimental tests, conducted with the use of a specifically created flume, in order to obtain detailed knowledge of the mechanical aspects, and to analyze the dynamics of the impact of a debris flow on different types of structures. The analyses of the tests, together with the calculation of the thrust caused by the flow, have made it possible to analyze the dynamics of the impact, which has shown differing effects, on the basis of the type of barrier that has been installed.
Public health activities for mitigation of radiation exposures and risk communication challenges after the Fukushima nuclear accident
Shimura, Tsutomu; Yamaguchi, Ichiro; Terada, Hiroshi; Robert Svendsen, Erik; Kunugita, Naoki
Herein we summarize the public health actions taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radiation after the Fukushima accident that occurred on 11 March 2011 in order to record valuable lessons learned for disaster preparedness. Evacuations from the radiation-affected areas and control of the distribution of various food products contributed to the reduction of external and internal radiation exposure resulting from the Fukushima incident. However, risk communication is also an important issue during the emergency response effort and subsequent phases of dealiing with a nuclear disaster. To assist with their healing process, sound, reliable scientific information should continue to be disseminated to the radiation-affected communities via two-way communication. We will describe the essential public health actions following a nuclear disaster for the early, intermediate and late phases that will be useful for radiological preparedness planning in response to other nuclear or radiological disasters. PMID:25862700
Public health activities for mitigation of radiation exposures and risk communication challenges after the Fukushima nuclear accident.
Shimura, Tsutomu; Yamaguchi, Ichiro; Terada, Hiroshi; Robert Svendsen, Erik; Kunugita, Naoki
Herein we summarize the public health actions taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radiation after the Fukushima accident that occurred on 11 March 2011 in order to record valuable lessons learned for disaster preparedness. Evacuations from the radiation-affected areas and control of the distribution of various food products contributed to the reduction of external and internal radiation exposure resulting from the Fukushima incident. However, risk communication is also an important issue during the emergency response effort and subsequent phases of dealiing with a nuclear disaster. To assist with their healing process, sound, reliable scientific information should continue to be disseminated to the radiation-affected communities via two-way communication. We will describe the essential public health actions following a nuclear disaster for the early, intermediate and late phases that will be useful for radiological preparedness planning in response to other nuclear or radiological disasters. PMID:25862700
Crime, violence, and behavioral health: collaborative community strategies for risk mitigation.
Pinals, Debra A
Criminal conduct is not always violent, and violence does not always lead to criminal charges. Moreover, crime and violence have multifaceted etiologies. Most violence in society is not attributable to mental illness. Where there is a small relationship between violence and mental illness, the risk of violence increases for individuals with substance use histories. Underlying trauma can also play a role. Antisocial attitudes, behaviors, and peer groups further increase the risk that individuals, including those with mental illness, will find themselves at risk of criminal recidivism. Criminal histories among public mental health populations, and mental health and substance use disorders among criminal populations are each higher than general population comparisons. Care within behavioral health settings should therefore target decreased criminal recidivism and decreased violence as part of recovery for those individuals at risk, using trauma-informed approaches and peer supports. Interventions that show promise bring criminal justice and behavioral health systems together, and include police-based diversion, specialty courts, court-based alternatives to incarceration, and coordinated re-entry programs. This article reviews these options along with specific risk management strategies, such as using risk, needs, and responsivity factors as a means of improving overall outcomes for persons with mental illness, while minimizing their risk of further criminalization and victimization. PMID:25915735
Measurement requirements for a near-Earth asteroid impact mitigation demonstration mission
Wolters, Stephen D; Wells, Nigel; Saunders, Christopher; McBride, Neil
A concept for an Impact Mitigation Preparation Mission, called Don Quijote, is to send two spacecraft to a Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA): an Orbiter and an Impactor. The Impactor collides with the asteroid while the Orbiter measures the resulting change in the asteroid's orbit, by means of a Radio Science Experiment (RSE) carried out before and after impact. Three parallel Phase A studies on Don Quijote were carried out for the European Space Agency: the research presented here reflects outcomes of the study by QinetiQ. We discuss the mission objectives with regards to the prioritisation of payload instruments, with emphasis on the interpretation of the impact. The Radio Science Experiment is described and it is examined how solar radiation pressure may increase the uncertainty in measuring the orbit of the target asteroid. It is determined that to measure the change in orbit accurately a thermal IR spectrometer is mandatory, to measure the Yarkovsky effect. The advantages of having a laser altimeter are discusse...
Measurement requirements for a Near-Earth Asteroid impact mitigation demonstration mission
Wolters, Stephen D.; Ball, Andrew J.; Wells, Nigel; Saunders, Christopher; McBride, Neil
A concept for an Impact Mitigation Preparation Mission, called Don Quijote, is to send two spacecrafts to a Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA): an Orbiter and an Impactor. The Impactor collides with the asteroid while the Orbiter measures the resulting change in the asteroid's orbit, by means of a Radio Science Experiment (RSE) carried out before and after the impact. Three parallel Phase A studies on Don Quijote were carried out for the European Space Agency: the research presented here reflects the outcomes of the study by QinetiQ. We discuss the mission objectives with regard to the prioritisation of payload instruments, with emphasis on the interpretation of the impact. The Radio Science Experiment is described and it is examined how solar radiation pressure may increase the uncertainty in measuring the orbit of the target asteroid. It is determined that to measure the change in orbit accurately a thermal IR spectrometer is mandatory, to measure the Yarkovsky effect. The advantages of having a laser altimeter are discussed. The advantages of a dedicated wide-angle impact camera are discussed and the field-of-view is initially sized through a simple model of the impact.
Statistical modeling for the mitigation of GPS multipath delays from day-to-day range measurements
Wu, Joz; Hsieh, Chi-Hsiu
Based on a least-squares model for double-difference GPS pseudoranges and carrier-phases, measurement residuals expressed in time series during an observation session are positively correlated between one sidereal day and the preceding days. As a result of the satellite's period, the phenomenon, which takes place at a user receiving site, is attributed to multipath interference. Examples from a weekly measurement dataset of control baselines are shown, where the known end-point coordinates also serve as a benchmark for assessing positioning accuracy. The system of error equations for mixed-model adjustment is divided into two subsystems. One set of the error equations is related to the real range measurements, while the other involves the pseudo-observation with an empirical sample variance. According to the existing correlation between day-to-day residual estimates, a multipath-mitigating algorithm is proven to improve the accuracy of the GPS height determination by at least 40%. It is also found that the algorithm depends on a variance-component estimator that adaptively scales an error covariance matrix for both the real range and empirical delay measurements.
Risk constraint measures developed for the outcome-based strategy for tank waste management
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This report is one of a series of supporting documents for the outcome-based characterization strategy developed by PNNL. This report presents a set of proposed risk measures with risk constraint (acceptance) levels for use in the Value of Information process used in the NCS. The characterization strategy has developed a risk-based Value of Information (VOI) approach for comparing the cost-effectiveness of characterizing versus mitigating particular waste tanks or tank clusters. The preference between characterizing or mitigating in order to prevent an accident depends on the cost of those activities relative to the cost of the consequences of the accident. The consequences are defined as adverse impacts measured across a broad set of risk categories such as worker dose, public cancers, ecological harm, and sociocultural impacts. Within each risk measure, various open-quotes constraint levelsclose quotes have been identified that reflect regulatory standards or conventionally negotiated thresholds of harm to Hanford resources and values. The cost of consequences includes the open-quotes costs close-quote of exceeding those constraint levels as well as a strictly linear costing per unit of impact within each of the risk measures. In actual application, VOI based-decision making is an iterative process, with a preliminary low-precision screen of potential technical options against the major risk constraints, followed by VOI analysis to determine the cost-effectiveness of gathering additional information and to select a preferred technical option, and finally a posterior screen to determine whether the preferred option meets all relevant risk constraints and acceptability criteria
Risk constraint measures developed for the outcome-based strategy for tank waste management
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Harper, B.L.; Gajewski, S.J.; Glantz, C.L. [and others
This report is one of a series of supporting documents for the outcome-based characterization strategy developed by PNNL. This report presents a set of proposed risk measures with risk constraint (acceptance) levels for use in the Value of Information process used in the NCS. The characterization strategy has developed a risk-based Value of Information (VOI) approach for comparing the cost-effectiveness of characterizing versus mitigating particular waste tanks or tank clusters. The preference between characterizing or mitigating in order to prevent an accident depends on the cost of those activities relative to the cost of the consequences of the accident. The consequences are defined as adverse impacts measured across a broad set of risk categories such as worker dose, public cancers, ecological harm, and sociocultural impacts. Within each risk measure, various {open_quotes}constraint levels{close_quotes} have been identified that reflect regulatory standards or conventionally negotiated thresholds of harm to Hanford resources and values. The cost of consequences includes the {open_quotes}costs{close_quote} of exceeding those constraint levels as well as a strictly linear costing per unit of impact within each of the risk measures. In actual application, VOI based-decision making is an iterative process, with a preliminary low-precision screen of potential technical options against the major risk constraints, followed by VOI analysis to determine the cost-effectiveness of gathering additional information and to select a preferred technical option, and finally a posterior screen to determine whether the preferred option meets all relevant risk constraints and acceptability criteria.
Design of an Expert System for Mitigating Trace Element Toxicity in Cancer Risk Management
Krishna Kumar, P. T.; Vinod, P. T.; Phoha, Vir V.; Iyengar, S. S.; Puneeth Iyengar
Cancer risk management involves obliterating excess concentration of cancer causing trace elements by the natural immune system and hence intake of nutritious diet is of paramount importance. Human diet should consist of essential macronutrients that have to be consumed in large quantities and trace elements are to be consumed in very little amount. As some of these trace elements are causative factors for various types of cancer and build up at the expense of macronutrients, cancer risk mana...
The Measuring Method of Risk with Energy
Xin Lin; Xinshu Tu
Since Harry. M. Markowitz published 'portfolio Selection' (1952), financial economists have proposed many methods to measure risk such as variant, downside-variant, average
absolute deviation, maximum deviation, VaR and so on. However, these methods share a common limitation, which only consider moment of the price, not consider the influence of exchange quantity. In common situation, these methods and their financial theory models can help investors prevent and scatter the ris...
Risk measures in living probabilistic safety assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The main objectives of the study are: to define risk measures and suggested uses of them in various living PSA applications for the operational safety management and to describe specific model features required for living PSA applications. The report is based on three case studies performed within the Nordic research project Safety Evaluation by Use of Living PSA and Safety Indicators. (48 refs., 11 figs., 17 tabs.)
L-Band Digital Aeronautical Communications System Engineering - Initial Safety and Security Risk Assessment and Mitigation
Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen
This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed L-band (960 to 1164 MHz) terrestrial en route communications system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents a preliminary safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the L-band communication system after the technology is chosen and system rollout timing is determined. The security risk analysis resulted in identifying main security threats to the proposed system as well as noting additional threats recommended for a future security analysis conducted at a later stage in the system development process. The document discusses various security controls, including those suggested in the COCR Version 2.0.
Environmental benefits and risks of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI): risk mitigation or trade-off?
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Grieger, Khara Deanne; FjordbØge, Annika Sidelmann
The use of nanoscaled particles in environmental remediation is gaining increasing amounts of attention in recent years, including the use of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI) for soil and groundwater remediation. The main advantages of its use include high degrees of reactivity towards a wide range of contaminants, enhanced mobility of the often coated particles, and its cost-effective in situ applications. Numerous studies have shown that compared to larger sized iron particles nZVI may have some superior properties, due to high surface areas and small sizes associated with nanoscale dimensions. While the use and further development of nZVI is understandably heralded as an environmentally-beneficial technology, the potentials risks of introducing these nanoparticles into the environment also needs to be considered. To date most research has focused on the potential benefits of nZVI and very little research has investigated its potential health and environmental risks. Nonetheless, some recent studies have documented adverse effects from its exposure including the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), oxidative stress, bactericidal effects, DNA damage, and inflammatory responses. Moreover, field site injections often involve the use of large quantities of nZVI (10-50 g/L) which may be directly injected into groundwater flow. Combined with the pursuit of designing more mobile and reactive particles, this may potentially lead to risks related to environmental exposures of substantial concentrations. In this study, we provide a brief synopsis of the expected environmental benefits and potential risks of nZVI, particularly focusing on its environmental fate and behavior and potential role as contaminant carrier. These are some areas of primary concern for risk assessors. Furthermore, we estimate and compare the span between probable environmental concentrations from its use in the field and concentrations which have been shown to cause adverse effects in laboratory settings. This is in light of the challenges that quantitative risk assessments face for nZVI and other nanoparticles, in part due to extensive and fundamental uncertainties. These data may provide a starting point to more thoroughly investigate the potential risks of nZVI and ultimately help scientists, engineers, and decision makers make better informed decisions regarding the use of nZVI for environmental remediation.
Dissolved organic carbon interferences in UV nitrate measurements and possible mitigation methods
Thomas, R. G.; Foster, C. R.; Cohen, M. J.; Martin, J. B.; Delfino, J. J.
Nitrate can be the limiting nutrient in many aquatic ecosystems and has been implicated in the degradation of surface and ground water quality. Understanding its fate and transport requires measurements at high temporal resolution in situ for extended periods of time to observe a range of natural and anthropogenic inputs. These measurements are most efficiently made by in situ sensors, preferably without chemical manipulation. The development of in situ ultraviolet spectrometers with high spectral resolution (0.8 nm) and short response time (1 s) have provided the ability to make in situ measurements of nitrate concentration by measuring its absorbance in the UV wavelengths (200nm-400nm). Like many other regions, springs in Florida have shown increasing nitrate levels in recent years. Because many spring runs in Florida ultimately enter highly colored rivers with high humic DOC content, UV nitrate analyzers cannot operate according to specifications under such light limiting conditions and can result in erroneous or even unattainable readings. Here we present an analysis of interferences caused by dissolved organic carbon (DOC) on the measured nitrate concentration by the Satlantic SUNA (Submersible Ultraviolet Nitrate Analyzer). Dissolved organic carbon absorption of UV irradiation is well documented in the literature and the results of this study clearly demonstrate that high DOC concentrations impact in situ sensor nitrate concentration measurements. Interferences caused by DOC were estimated through bench tests of natural water collected from the upper reaches of the Santa Fe River (USGS Monitoring Station 2322700) and found to have DOC concentration of approximately 50 mg/L and N03 concentration of 0.04 mg/L. The SUNA was operated in a continuous sample mode (about 1 sample per second) to measure nitrate concentrations in this water that was diluted to DOC concentrations of 2.5, 5.0, 10.0, and 12.5 mg/L DOC and nitrate concentrations of 0.05, 0.10, 0.20, 0.50, and 1.00 mg/L NO3. Each DOC dilution and standard was measured for 5 minutes. At concentrations above 10 mg/L, the error associated with the measurements was > 15%. Below that concentration the error was 5%. Analysis of the spectral data of this experiment and from the study site indicate that significant attenuation at UV wavelengths causes most of the loss of the nitrate signal and error. It is thus critical that the DOC be removed or deactivated as part of the in situ UV-based nitrate analysis. While this attenuation could be overcome by shortening the path length of the light beam, a shortened pathlength would also reduce sensitivity. To remove the DOC interference, we have constructed a UV photoreactor by winding 7 m of PTFE tubing around a quartz tube. The assembly was wrapped in reflective aluminum foil. A low-pressure UV lamp (10 Watts output, 95% emitted at the mercury resonance wavelength of 254 nm) was placed inside the quartz tube. This method should mitigate interferences caused by DOC. The extent of mitigation is currently being determined and will be described in the presentation.
A Human Factor Analysis to Mitigate Fall Risk Factors in an Aerospace Environment
Ware, Joylene H.
This slide presentation reviews the study done to quanitfy the risks from falls from three locations (i.e., Shuttle Landing Facility Launch Complex Payloads and Vehicle Assembly Building) at the Kennedy Space Center. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is reviewed and the mathematical model developed is detailed.
Ready for the Storm: Education for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation
Kagawa, Fumiyo; Selby, David
Incidences of disaster and climate change impacts are rising globally. Disaster risk reduction and climate change education are two educational responses to present and anticipated increases in the severity and frequency of hazards. They share significant complementarities and potential synergies, the latter as yet largely unexploited. Three…
Downgrading Complexity in the Exxon Valdez Crisis: Using Information as a Risk Mitigation Tool in Complex Adaptive Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eric Snow
Full Text Available
In a high-stakes crisis environment, trial and error can be too costly an approach. The Exxon Valdez oil spill provides an example of how complex adaptive systems can have simple, preventable problems and complex, unpredictable problems can come together with disastrous consequences. Not every possible contingency can be accounted for. However, research and experience can be applied to mitigate these types of risks by using information to reduce or "downgrade" the complexity of the contributing situations. The Cynefin contexts of complexity can be used to assess problems when they arise. Downgrading the level of complexity for a given problem can turn formerly complex or complicated situations into simple ones that require less knowledge and resources to resolve and can reduce the risk of failure. The possibility and consequences of failure may remain, but downgraded complexity can reduce the likelihood of this failure and make problems more manageable when they do occur.
Policies and Measures to Realise Industrial Energy Efficiency and Mitigate Climate Change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The industrial sector is responsible for a significant share of global energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Energy efficiency is commonly seen as the most cost-effective, least-polluting, and most readily-accessible industrial energy saving option available in the industrial sector worldwide. Capturing the full extent of these potential end-use energy efficiency improvements rapidly is essential if the world is to be on a path to stabilise greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations to a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. In the International Energy Agency (IEA) 450 parts per million stabilisation scenario, over a quarter of all energy efficiency gains need to come from the industrial sector by 2050, largely by changing the pattern of industrial energy use. The reduction potential estimated by IEA and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for five energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors ranges from about 10 to 40 per cent, depending upon the sector. There is significant potential to reduce, at low or no cost, the amount of energy used to manufacture most commodities. Many policies and programmes - at a national level - have already demonstrated significant improvements in industrial energy efficiency. The associate reduction in energy needs often also improves economic competitiveness as well as mitigates GHG emissions. However, at an international level, approaches such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) are not yet delivering the expected energy efficiency improvements. Existing and effective industrial energy efficiency policies and measures could be replicated at a global level. Key elements of those policies and measures include increasing facility management attention to the issue of energy efficiency; promoting the dissemination of information, practice, and tools; increasing the auditing and implementation capacity; and developing the market for industrial energy efficiency investment. Better energy efficiency can produce substantial benefits both for global economic growth and poverty reduction as well as for mitigating climate change. The paper details examples of effective industrial energy efficiency policies and programmes. It provides a list of recommended actions to accelerate the adoption of industrial energy efficiency technologies and practices. Many policies and programmes have elements which seem likely to be readily deployable, replicable and transferable. A successful post-Kyoto architecture, regardless of its specifics, should therefore enable these elements see the light of reality
Residents in a high radon potential geographic area: Their risk perception and attitude toward testing and mitigation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Boone County, Indiana was identified by the EPA as one of the high radon potential geographic areas. Health education campaigns are needed to prevent resident's unnecessary radon exposure. In order to design suitable programs, a questionnaire mail survey was conducted to measure socio-demographic characteristics of County resident's knowledge about radon, attitude toward radon testing and mitigation, support of education campaigns, and the best media to deliver radon education campaigns. A stratified random sampling method was applied for a total of 400 samples. The number of samples from each township/city was a proportion of their taxable parcels. The survey return rate was 39.8%. The data were analyzed by Epi Info and SPSS. The statistical significant level was set at ? = 0.05. The results showed that resident's knowledge about radon was at a relatively superficial level. There was no association identified between the knowledge of radon and gender, age, family income, or education, except that females more frequently believed in false effects caused by radon. A significant correlation between radon knowledge and home radon tests was observed. Also found in this study was that respondents with better knowledge about diseases caused by radon had more confidence in radon mitigation actions. Newspaper was chosen by respondents as the most favorite media to deliver radon health education campaigns. Health education campaigns for the residents of Boone County might be r the residents of Boone County might be conducted by local governments and/or other organizations
Aircrew radiation exposure: sources-risks-measurement
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
A short review is given on the actual aircrew exposure and its sources. The resulting risks for harmful effects to the health and discuss methods for in-flight measurements of exposure is evaluated. An idea for a fairly simple and economic approach to a practical, airborne active dosimeter for the assessment of individual crew exposure is presented. The exposure of civil aircrew to cosmic radiation, should not be considered a tremendous risk to the health, there is no reason for panic. However, being significantly higher than the average exposure to radiation workers, it can certainly not be neglected. As recommended by ICRP, aircrew exposure has to be considered occupational radiation exposure and aircrews are certainly entitled to the same degree of protection, as other ground-based radiation workers have obtained by law, since long time. (author)
The instability of downside risk measures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
We study the feasibility and noise sensitivity of portfolio optimization under some downside risk measures (value-at-risk, expected shortfall, and semivariance) when they are estimated by fitting a parametric distribution on a finite sample of asset returns. We find that the existence of the optimum is a probabilistic issue, depending on the particular random sample, in all three cases. At a critical combination of the parameters of these problems we find an algorithmic phase transition, separating the phase where the optimization is feasible from the one where it is not. This transition is similar to the one discovered earlier for expected shortfall based on historical time series. We employ the replica method to compute the phase diagram, as well as to obtain the critical exponent of the estimation error that diverges at the critical point. The analytical results are corroborated by Monte Carlo simulations
The instability of downside risk measures
Varga-Haszonits, Istvan
We study the feasibility and noise sensitivity of portfolio optimization under some downside risk measures (Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and semivariance) when they are estimated by fitting a parametric distribution on a finite sample of asset returns. We find that the existence of the optimum is a probabilistic issue, depending on the particular random sample, in all three cases. At a critical combination of the parameters of these problems we find an algorithmic phase transition, separating the phase where the optimization is feasible from the one where it is not. This transition is similar to the one discovered earlier for Expected Shortfall based on historical time series. We employ the replica method to compute the phase diagram, as well as to obtain the critical exponent of the estimation error that diverges at the critical point. The analytical results are corroborated by Monte Carlo simulations.
Wildlife damages, mitigation measures and livelihood issues around Chitwan National Park, Nepal
Upadhyay, Saroj
Human-wildlife conflict is closely associated with the economics and social well being of the local people. It occurs worldwide and its frequency and severity have been rising annually, especially in Chitwan National Park. Crop damage and loss of livestock by wildlife from park are some of the major causes of park-people conflict in Chitwan National Park. In response to these damages, local people employ different defensive measures to alleviate the losses or reduce the risk of wildlife damag...
The Pepcon Disaster-Causative Factors and potential Preventive and Mitigative Measures
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lambert, H E; Alvares, N J
On May 4, 1988, the PEPCON plant experienced three major and several smaller explosions that caused over $70 million in property damage and caused two deaths. The PEPCON plant produced Ammonium Perchlorate (AP), a major ingredient for rocket fuel. The PEPCON plant and the nearby Kidd Marshmallow plant were totally destroyed by the detonations. The initiating event for the explosions was a fire that originated in the Batch Dryer Building and spread to adjacent storage. Several factors combined to cause the AP in the major storage fields to detonate, the most important being lack of adequate separation between storage units. Welding and flame cutting procedure with poor fire watch protocol was the prime candidate for fire ignition. There were no automatic fire suppression systems at the plant. Buildings including the Batch Dryer Building were made of combustible building material (fiberglass). There was poor housekeeping and no control of AP dust generation. AP was stored in combustible polyethylene drums, aluminum tote bins, 30-gallon steel storage drums and fiber reinforced tote bags. There were high-density storage practices. In addition, a contributing factor to the rapid fire-spread was that the wind that day was blowing directly from the batch dryer building to the storage areas. This paper claims that if codes, standards, and well-known hazard identification safety techniques were implemented at PEPCON, then the disaster would have been averted. A limited scope probabilistic risk assessment was conducted to establish the effectiveness of various preventive and mitigative features that could have been deployed to avert the disaster. The major hazard at the PEPCON site was fire and explosion involving the processing, production and storage of AP, which was then and is currently stored as a class 4 oxidizer. Since minute quantities of contamination can cause AP to be detonable by shock, there has been an ongoing debate concerning its reclassification to a class-A explosive.
Volcanic hazard in Mexico: a comprehensive on-line database for risk mitigation
Manea, Marina; Constantin Manea, Vlad; Capra, Lucia; Bonasia, Rosanna
Researchers are currently working on several key aspects of the Mexican volcanoes, such as remote sensing, field data of old and recent volcaniclastic deposits, structural framework, monitoring (rainfall data and visual observation of lahars), and laboratory experiment (analogue models and numerical simulations - fall3D, titan2D). Each investigation is focused on specific processes, but it is fundamental to visualize the global status of the volcano in order to understand its behavior and to mitigate future hazards. The Mexican Volcanoes @nline represents a novel initiative aimed to collect, on a systematic basis, the complete set of data obtained so far on the volcanoes, and to continuously update the database with new data. All the information is compiled from published works and updated frequently. Maps, such as the geological map of the Mexican volcanos and the associated hazard zonation, as well as point data, such as stratigraphic sections, sedimentology and diagrams of rainfall intensities, are presented in Google Earth format in order to be easily accessed by the scientific community and the general public. An important section of this online database is the presentation of numerical simulations results for ash dispersion associated with the principal Mexican active volcanoes. Daily prediction of ash flow dispersion (based on real-time data from CENAPRED and the Mexican Meteorological Service), as well as large-scale high-resolution subduction simulations performed on HORUS (the Computational Geodynamics Laboratory's supercomputer) represent a central part of the Mexican Volcanos @nline database. The Mexican Volcanoes @nline database is maintained by the Computational Geodynamics Laboratory and it is based entirely on Open Source software. The website can be visited at: http://www.geociencias.unam.mx/mexican_volcanoes.
Middle Man Concept for In-Orbit Collision Risks Mitigation, CAESAR and CARA Examples
Moury, Monique; Newman, Lauri K.; Laporte, Francois
This paper describes the conjunction analysis which has to be performed using data provided by JSpOC. This description not only demonstrates that Collision Avoidance is a 2- step process (close approach detection followed by risk evaluation for collision avoidance decision) but also leads to the conclusion that there is a need for a Middle Man role. After describing the Middle Man concept, this paper introduces two examples with their similarities and particularities: the American civil space effort delivered by the NASA CARA team (Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis) and the French response CAESAR (Conjunction Assessment and Evaluation Service: Alerts and Recommendations). For both, statistics are presented and feedbacks discussed. All together, around 80 satellites are served by CARA and/or CAESAR. Both processes regularly evolve in order either to follow JSpOC upgrades or to improve analysis according to experience acquired during the past years.
Mitigating Information security risks during the Transition to Integrated Operations:Models & Data
Qian, Ying
This research studies the change of information security risks during the transition to Integrated Operations (an operation extensively utilize advanced information communication technology to connect offshore facilities and onshore control centers and even vendors.) in Norsk Hydro, a Norwegian oil and gas company. The specific case for this study is a pilot platform in transition to Integrated Operations, Brage: twenty traditional work processes are to be replaced by new work ...
Prevalence and mitigation strategies of HIV/AIDS infection risks in Namibian tertiary education institutional hostels
Zimba, Roderick F.; Likando, Gilbert N.
The purpose of this study was to investigate risk factors that could promote HIV infection amongst adolescents and young adults living in tertiary educational institutional hostels in Namibia. Employing structured questionnaires and focus group discussions, we sought to answer questions pertaining to factors, beliefs systems, values, traditions and sexual relations that could promote HIV infection in the student hostels. The data on these issues were gathered from 306 male and 314 female stud...
Development of a Meteorological Risk Map for Disaster Mitigation and Management in the Chishan Basin, Taiwan
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tai-Li Lee
Full Text Available This study involved developing a natural disaster risk assessment framework based on the consideration of three phases: a pre-disaster phase, disaster impact phase, and post-disaster recovery phase. The exposure of natural disasters exhibits unique characteristics. The interactions of numerous factors should be considered in risk assessment as well as in monitoring environment to provide natural disaster warnings. In each phase, specific factors indicate the relative status in the area subjected to risk assessment. Three types of natural disaster were assessed, namely debris flows, floods, and droughts. The Chishan basin in Taiwan was used as a case study and the adequacy of the relocation of Xiaolin village was evaluated. Incorporating resilience into the assessment revealed that the higher the exposure is, the higher the resilience becomes. This is because highly populated areas are typically allocated enough resources to respond to disasters. In addition, highly populated areas typically exhibit high resilience. The application of this analysis in the policy of relocation of damaged village after disaster provides valuable information for decision makers to achieve the sustainability of land use planning.
Approach for Mitigating Pressure Garment Design Risks in a Mobile Lunar Surface Systems Architecture
Aitchison, Lindsay
The stated goals of the 2004 Vision for Space Exploration focus on establishing a human presence throughout the solar system beginning with the establishment of a permanent human presence on the Moon. However, the precise objectives to be accomplished on the lunar surface and the optimal system architecture to achieve those objectives have been a topic of much debate since the inception of the Constellation Program. There are two basic styles of system architectures being traded at the Programmatic level: a traditional large outpost that would focus on techniques for survival off our home planet and a greater depth of exploration within one area, or a mobile approach- akin to a series of nomadic camps- that would allow greater breadth of exploration opportunities. The traditional outpost philosophy is well within the understood pressure garment design space with respect to developing interfaces and operational life cycle models. The mobile outpost, however, combines many unknowns with respect to pressure garment performance and reliability that could dramatically affect the cost and schedule risks associated with the Constellation space suit system. This paper provides an overview of the concepts being traded for a mobile architecture from the operations and hardware implementation perspective, describes the primary risks to the Constellation pressure garment associated with each of the concepts, and summarizes the approach necessary to quantify the pressure garment design risks to enable the Constellation Program to make informed decisions when deciding on an overall lunar surface systems architecture.
The reordering urban community participation. A strategy for the prevention and mitigation of risk by geological phenomena: Case of implementation in Medellin, Colombia
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
In this article, it is showed the fulfilled methodology by the municipality of Medellin-Colombia and its results, at the Picacho sector, for the risk prevention and mitigation of rock fall It is formulated and developed a project for urban rearrangement, in which the community participation is the transverse component at the planning- management, risk prevention- mitigation, legalization of land's possession, housing improvement- relocation, and urban infrastructure. The most important results were a) the improvement of quality's life for residents, benefiting directly about 2,500 people and indirectly about 24,000, with one investment near 3.6 dollar millions; b) construction of social web and membership sense; c) better governance and better state-community relation; and d) risk reduction of rock fall As the main conclusion it is expounded that the community participation at all stages of the project and the concept that the risk is non resolved problem of the development are two determining elements so that urban rearrangement may be, in many cases, the better option for the risk prevention and mitigation of geological phenomena in urban areas of unmannerly development, rather than one massive relocation of the population
Calibration and Multipath Mitigation for Increased Accuracy of Time-of-Flight Camera Measurements in Robotic Applications
FUCHS, Stefan
This dissertation entitled "Calibration and Multipath Mitigation for Increased Ac- curacy of Time-of-Flight Camera Measurements in Robotic Applications" discusses the systematic measurement errors of a Time-of-Flight (ToF) camera and introduces two approaches to compensate for these errors. ToF cameras are active, imaging sensors, which provide depth images and monochromatic images with a frame rate up to 50 Hz. These devices allow not only for two-dimensional computer vision algorithms but a...
Full-Scaled Advanced Systems Testbed: Ensuring Success of Adaptive Control Research Through Project Lifecycle Risk Mitigation
Pavlock, Kate M.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Dryden Flight Research Center completed flight testing of adaptive controls research on the Full-Scale Advance Systems Testbed (FAST) in January of 2011. The research addressed technical challenges involved with reducing risk in an increasingly complex and dynamic national airspace. Specific challenges lie with the development of validated, multidisciplinary, integrated aircraft control design tools and techniques to enable safe flight in the presence of adverse conditions such as structural damage, control surface failures, or aerodynamic upsets. The testbed is an F-18 aircraft serving as a full-scale vehicle to test and validate adaptive flight control research and lends a significant confidence to the development, maturation, and acceptance process of incorporating adaptive control laws into follow-on research and the operational environment. The experimental systems integrated into FAST were designed to allow for flexible yet safe flight test evaluation and validation of modern adaptive control technologies and revolve around two major hardware upgrades: the modification of Production Support Flight Control Computers (PSFCC) and integration of two, fourth-generation Airborne Research Test Systems (ARTS). Post-hardware integration verification and validation provided the foundation for safe flight test of Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion and Model Reference Aircraft Control adaptive control law experiments. To ensure success of flight in terms of cost, schedule, and test results, emphasis on risk management was incorporated into early stages of design and flight test planning and continued through the execution of each flight test mission. Specific consideration was made to incorporate safety features within the hardware and software to alleviate user demands as well as into test processes and training to reduce human factor impacts to safe and successful flight test. This paper describes the research configuration, experiment functionality, overall risk mitigation, flight test approach and results, and lessons learned of adaptive controls research of the Full-Scale Advanced Systems Testbed.
Using inferred drivers of discarding behaviour to evaluate discard mitigation measures
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Catchpole, T.L.; Feekings, Jordan P.
Discards refer to the part of the catch not retained on board during commercial fishing operations, but returned to the sea. The proposed European Union Common Fisheries Policy reform, to be implemented in 2014, sets out a gradual elimination of discards by reducing unwanted catches and ensuring that all catches are landed. To develop successful discard mitigation measures, it is necessary to identify the reasons for discarding. Here, we have developed a simple model that can be applied to data from observer programmes (ObsPs) to establish the contribution of different drivers of discarding behaviour. The analysis makes inferences on the causes of discarding by partitioning discards into four categories based on the length of the fish and the associated regulatory restrictions. The drivers are defined as: fish discarded below the legalminimum landing size; fish forwhich there is no market and that do not have aminimum landing size; fish for which there are inconsistencies in market and sorting practices; and discards that can be attributed to fishers' responses to quota restrictions. The approach is applied to data generated from ObsPs from five EuropeanMember States. All the inferred drivers contribute to the total discard quantity. Their relative contributions vary widely across countries, areas, gears, and species
Assessment of diagnostic measurements for selection for residential radon mitigation. Rept. for Oct 87-Jan 88
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The paper discusses and critiques EPA's experience in conducting house evaluation visits in Florida and Ohio. Suggestions are offered as to the utility and priority to be given to selected diagnostic procedures and measurements. EPA has an experimental program to develop and demonstrate cost effective radon mitigation techniques. Most of the work is carried out in occupied houses with elevated radon concentrations. The study house selection process starts with monitoring surveys that establish an area as one with elevated radon concentrations in houses. Radon detectors are usually distributed with a questionnaire, which requests information on location (at least the ZIP Code level) and some indication of building style in addition to radon concentration. The survey identifies problem areas and housing types of the greatest experimental interest. If the pool of candidate houses is larger than the number that can be worked on, as is usually the case, then house evaluation visits to the candidate houses are conducted in order to provide the information needed to make a selection of study houses from among the candidates
Water Scarcity in Communities, Coping Strategies and Mitigation Measures: The Case of Bulawayo
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Treda Mukuhlani
Full Text Available This paper looks at the impact of water scarcity in communities. This paper also evaluates various mitigation measures being employed by residents themselves, local authorities, non-governmental organization (NGOs and the government. Bulawayo, Zimbabwe's second largest city was chosen as a case study because the geographical and climatic conditions are such that it receives low and unreliable rainfall. The city has been facing water scarcity for close to a decade now. The water shortages have been recurring over and over again and this has resulted in the Bulawayo City Council introducing water shedding. This has resulted in residents being affected in many ways. Residents' health has been compromised, sanitation levels have declined and education conditions negatively impacted. The research used purposive sampling. Key informants were interviewed from the City Council, Health department, residents association and NGOs. The research covered three suburbs that are Nketa 7, Entumbane and Newton West. The research found out that the high density suburbs were the most affected by water scarcity and NGO activities were also biased to these areas. Coordinated work between the government, local authority, NGOs and the residents has ensured that a major health crisis be averted. Normal 0 false false false EN-ZA X-NONE X-NONE
Option-Implied Measures of Equity Risk
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Chang, Bo-Young; Christoffersen, Peter F.
Equity risk measured by beta is of great interest to both academics and practitioners. Existing estimates of beta use historical returns. Many studies have found option-implied volatility to be a strong predictor of future realized volatility. We find that option-implied volatility and skewness are also good predictors of future realized beta. Motivated by this finding, we establish a set of assumptions needed to construct a beta estimate from option-implied return moments using equity and index options. This beta can be computed using only option data on a single day. It is therefore potentially able to reflect sudden changes in the structure of the underlying company.
The carbon management strategic priority. Leading firms reap cost savings, risk mitigation and revenue rewards
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, L. [Carbon Disclosure Project CDP, London (United Kingdom); Beresford, J. [Verdantix, London (United Kingdom)
Carbon management is moving up the corporate agenda and many companies now understand the need to handle their emissions. But what makes the management of carbon strategically important for business and will it grow as a priority? The outcome of this qualitative report shows us that carbon management is an issue on which to act; it is a matter of key strategic importance and one that will grow over the next ten years. As leading firms force broad action on carbon management in their markets and value chains, those companies that ignore the issue risk being left behind.
Modelling of agricultural diffuse pollution and mitigation measures effectiveness in Wallonia (Belgium)
Sohier, C.; Deraedt, D.; Degré, A.
Implementation of European directives in the environmental field and, specially, in the water management field, generates a request from policy-makers for news tools able to evaluate impact of management measures aiming at reducing pressures on ecosystems. In Wallonia (Southern Region of Belgium), the Nitrate Directive (EEC/676/91) was transposed into the "Walloon action plan for nitrogen sustainable management in agriculture" (PGDA1) in 2002. In 2007, a second plan was launched to reinforce some topics (PGDA2). Furthermore, the goal of "good quality" of surface waters and groundwater imposed by the Water Framework Directive poses new challenges in water management. In this context, a "soil and vadose" hydrological model is used in order to evaluate diffuse pollutions and efficiency of mitigation measures. This model, called EPICgrid, has been developed at catchment scale with an original modular concept on the basis of the field scale "water-soil-plant" EPIC model (Williams J.R., Jones C.A., Dyke P.T. (1984). A modelling approach to determining the relationship between erosion and soil productivity. Transactions of the ASAE. 27, 129-144). The model estimates, for each HRU identified into a 1km2 grid, water and nutrients flows into the plant-soil-vadose zone system (Sohier C., Degré A., Dautrebande S. (2009). From root zone modelling to regional forecasting of nitrate concentration in recharge flows - The case of the Walloon Region (Belgium). Journal of Hydrology, Volume 369, Issues 3-4, 15 May 2009, Pages 350-359). The model is used to make prospective simulations in order to evaluate the impact of measures currently performed to reduce the effect of diffuse pollution on water surface quality and groundwater quality, at regional scale. Response of the soil-vadose zone to agricultural practices modification is analyzed for the deadlines of the Water Framework Directive: 2015, 2021 and 2027, taking into account two climatic scenarios. Simulations results showed that actual measures are not sufficient in some areas and that new actions are necessary. The EPICgrid model was also used to evaluate effectiveness of further measures that could be implemented in order to reduce agricultural diffuse pollution. The increasing of catch crops in vulnerable zones has shown a limited impact in the Walloon context. The modifications of agricultural practices such as crop rotations or mineral fertilizing amounts have shown a more significant impact on water quality. Furthermore, the farmers' practices are evaluated each year by a measuring campaign of the soil nitrogen residue after harvest. These data allow us to improve the representativeness of the EPICgrid model in areas in which agricultural practices largely differs from regional statistics.
Performance evaluating of the AP1000 passive safety systems for mitigation of small break loss of coolant accident using risk assessment tool-II software
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Highlights: ? The SBLOCA CDF has been estimated to be 1.934E?8/year, using RAT II. ? The simplicity and passive safety systems result in decrease in the probability of CCF. ? However, the importance analysis ranks the CCF as the greatest contributor in CDF. ? Automatic and manual actuation failure probabilities have been founded to have low contribution in the SBLOCA CDF. ? The analysis assesses the performance of passive safety systems and reveals the deficiencies. - Abstract: The successful performance of defense barriers in the operating nuclear power plants is vital to avoid any release of highly radioactive fission products. Passive safety systems, independent of the electrical power, are implemented in modern NPPs to improve their reliability on demand. In this study, the SB-LOCA CDF is evaluated for the AP1000 to assess the performance of passive safety systems. The core damage states are examined to identify the most considerable risk contributors. Besides, importance measures rank the failures. Risk assessment tool-II has been designed and developed, in the safety research center of Shiraz University, to develop the PSA level 1 models. Using redundant passive and diverse reliable safety systems result in the low CDF of SB-LOCA (i.e. 1.934E?08). Considering the dominant sequences indicates that relying on passive automatic actuation mitigating processes, independent of operator actuations and electrical motive power leads to the considerable decrads to the considerable decrease in the probability of common cause failures and the CDF. However, importance analysis reveals the high contribution of CCFBEs in the SB-LOCA CDF. The results identify the weak points of operation and the most important risk contributors, in order to improve the inadequacies in design, test and maintenance and required human actions.
Allocation of risk capital based on iso-entropic coherent risk measure
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chengli Zheng
Full Text Available Purpose: The potential of diversified portfolio leads to the risk capital allocation problem. There are many kinds of methods or rules to allocate risk capital. However, they have flaws, such as non-continuity, unfairness. In order to get a better method, we propose a new risk measure to be the base of risk capital allocation rule. Design/methodology/approach: We proposed two kinds of allocation methods: one is marginal risk contribution based on iso-entropic coherent risk measure(IE, the other one is to combine the minimal excess allocation(EBA principle and IE into risk capital allocation. The iso-entropic coherent risk measure has many advantages over others; it is continuous and more powerful in distinguishing risks, consistent with higher-order stochastic dominances than other risk measures. And EBA is consistent with the amount of risk, which means fairness for risk capital allocation. Findings: Through cases, simulations and empirical application, it shows that these two allocation rules satisfy some good properties, can be more efficient, more precise and fairer. And the EBA based on IE may be the better one. Research limitations/implications: However, there are some problems still open. One is how to treat the negative value of allocation. Second is that the consistence between the allocated risk capital and the amount of the risk needs to be studied further. Originality/value: A good risk measure is very important for risk capital allocation. We proposed two methods to deal with risk capital allocation based on a new coherent risk measure called iso-entropic risk measure, which is smooth and consistent with higher-order stochastic dominance and has higher resolution of risk. It shows that the risk capital allocation rules based on iso-entropic risk measure are better than the other rules.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Louis Doru Havriliuc
Full Text Available This paper aims to describe how a digital marketing simulation system improve the knowledge and skills of students, as well as their status as members of a virtual community, which gradually evolve from novice to expert in managing online advertising campaigns. The body of the article encompasses three contributions: the know-how of the Simbound Game author, the practical experiences of an instructor, who coordinated students' activities during three courses and of a Master student – the leader of a team which got the first position after the completion of a game. The advantages of managing no-risk online advertising campaigns are revealed and the students are able to understand how various online marketing tools become useful while a firm expands its operations in e-commerce and must fulfill new tasks and responsibilities. The paper concludes with the practical implications of the Simbound simulation-based learning and the ideas included in the future research agenda.
Risky business. Fossil risk mitigation and enhanced energy security from renewables
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
It is argued that the cost estimates associated with the development and diversification of energy policies may be flawed. The document points out that renewables such as wind can be used as a hedge against risk in a balanced portfolio. The calculation of future generating costs is a crucial factor to be taken into account but the figures for the future are highly uncertain. It is argued that traditional electricity costs, in terms of kWh, are unreliable and should be given little weight in energy policy deliberations. It is suggested that investor groups should be asked to submit firm fixed-price bids for providing wind, coal and gas-base electricity over the next 25-30 years. Wind and other fixed-cost energy sources can help nations avoid costly economic consequences stemming from fluctuation in the price of oil
Mitigating the risk of opioid abuse through a balanced undergraduate pain medicine curriculum
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Morley-Forster PK
Full Text Available Patricia K Morley-Forster,1,2 Joseph V Pergolizzi,3–5 Robert Taylor Jr,5 Robert A Axford-Gatley,6 Edward M Sellers71Department of Anesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada; 2Outpatient Pain Clinic, St Joseph's Hospital, London, ON, Canada; 3Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA; 4Department of Pharmacology, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA; 5NEMA Research Inc, Naples, FL, USA; 6Clinical Content and Editorial Services, Complete Healthcare Communications, Inc, Chadds Ford, PA, USA; 7DL Global Partners Inc, Toronto, ON, CanadaAbstract: Chronic pain is highly prevalent in the United States and Canada, occurring in an estimated 30% of the adult population. Despite its high prevalence, US and Canadian medical schools provide very little training in pain management, including training in the safe and effective use of potent analgesics, most notably opioids. In 2005, the International Association for the Study of Pain published recommendations for a core undergraduate pain management curriculum, and several universities have implemented pilot programs based on this curriculum. However, when outcomes have been formally assessed, these initiatives have resulted in only modest improvements in physician knowledge about chronic pain and its treatment. This article discusses strategies to improve undergraduate pain management curricula and proposes areas in which those efforts can be augmented. Emphasis is placed on opioids, which have great potency as analgesics but also substantial risks in terms of adverse events and the risk of abuse and addiction. The authors conclude that the most important element of an undergraduate pain curriculum is clinical experience under mentors who are capable of reinforcing didactic learning by modeling best practices.Keywords: chronic pain, curricular content, medical education, opioids, pain education, pain knowledge, physician training, teaching
Different risk-adjusted fund performance measures: a comparison
Grau-carles, Pilar; Sainz, Jorge; Otamendi, Javier; Doncel, Luis Miguel
Traditional risk-adjusted performance measures, such as the Sharpe ratio, the Treynor index or Jensen's alpha, based on the mean-variance framework, are widely used to rank mutual funds. However, performance measures that consider risk by taking into account only losses, such as Value-at-Risk (VaR), would be more appropriate. Standard VaR assumes that returns are normally distributed, though they usually present skewness and kurtosis. In this paper we compare these different measures of risk:...
Mitigating Climate Change with Ocean Pipes: Influencing Land Temperature and Hydrology and Termination Overshoot Risk
Kwiatkowski, L.; Caldeira, K.; Ricke, K.
With increasing risk of dangerous climate change geoengineering solutions to Earth's climate problems have attracted much attention. One proposed geoengineering approach considers the use of ocean pipes as a means to increase ocean carbon uptake and the storage of thermal energy in the deep ocean. We use a latest generation Earth System Model (ESM) to perform simulations of idealised extreme implementations of ocean pipes. In our simulations, downward transport of thermal energy by ocean pipes strongly cools the near surface atmosphere - by up to 11°C on a global mean. The ocean pipes cause net thermal energy to be transported from the terrestrial environment to the deep ocean while increasing the global net transport of water to land. By cooling the ocean surface more than the land, ocean pipes tend to promote a monsoonal-type circulation, resulting in increased water vapour transport to land. Throughout their implementation, ocean pipes prevent energy from escaping to space, increasing the amount of energy stored in Earth's climate system despite reductions in surface temperature. As a consequence, our results indicate that an abrupt termination of ocean pipes could cause dramatic increases in surface temperatures beyond that which would have been obtained had ocean pipes not been implemented.
Proactive inventory policy intervention to mitigate risk within cooperative supply chains
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Takako Kurano
Full Text Available This exploratory paper will investigate the concept of supply chain risk management involving supplier monitoring within a cooperative supply chain. Inventory levels and stockouts are the key metrics. Key to this concept is the assumptions that (1 out-of-control supplier situations are causal triggers for downstream supply chain disruptions, (2 these triggers can potentially be predicted using statistical process monitoring tools, and (3 carrying excess inventory only when needed is preferable as opposed to carrying excess inventory on a continual basis. Simulation experimentation will be used to explore several supplier monitoring strategies based on statistical runs tests, specifically "runs up and down" and/or "runs above and below" tests. The sensitivity of these tests in detecting non-random supplier behavior will be explored and their performance will be investigated relative to stock-outs and inventory levels. Finally, the effects of production capacity and yield rate will be examined. Results indicate out-of-control supplier signals can be detected beforehand and stock-outs can be significantly reduced by dynamically adjusting inventory levels. The largest benefit occurs when both runs tests are used together and when the supplier has sufficient production capacity to respond to downstream demand (i.e., safety stock increases. When supplier capacity is limited, the highest benefit is achieved when yield rates are high and, thus, yield loss does not increase supplier production requirements beyond its available capacity.
Risk Mitigation Approach to Commercial Resupply to the International Space Station
Koons, Diane S.; Schreiber, Craig
In August 2006, NASA awarded Space Act Agreements (SAAs) for Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) under the Commercial Crew and Cargo Project Office at Johnson Space Center. One of the goals of the SAAs is to facilitate U.S. private industry demonstration of cargo transportation capabilities, ultimately achieving reliable, cost effective access to low-Earth orbit (LEO). Each COTS provider is required to complete International Space Stations (ISS) Integration activities, which includes meeting the physical and functional interfaces and interface requirements between the ISS and COTS vehicles. These requirements focus on the areas of risk to the ISS during rendezvous and proximity operations, as well as the integration operations while the COTS vehicle is berthed to the ISS. On December 23, 2008, NASA awarded Commercial Resupply Service (CRS) contracts to provide resupply services to the ISS, following the Shuttle retirement. In addition to performing any ISS Integration activities, NASA will be performing independent assessments of the launch vehicle and orbital vehicle to evaluate the readiness of the contractor to deliver NASA cargo safely to the ISS. This paper will address the activities NASA Centers, both JSC and KSC, in the oversight and insight function over commercial visiting vehicles to the ISS.
Landslide-dammed lake at Tangjiashan, Sichuan province, China (triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake, May 12, 2008): Risk assessment, mitigation strategy, and lessons learned
Cui, P.; Dang, C.; Zhuang, J.; You, Y.; Chen, X.; Scott, K.M.
Landslides and rock avalanches triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake produced 257 landslide dams, mainly situated along the eastern boundary of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau where rivers descend approximately 3,000 m into the Sichuan Basin. The largest of these dams blocked the Tongkou River (a tributary of the Fujiang River) at Tangjiashan. The blockage, consisting of 2. 04 ?? 10 7 m 3 of landslide debris, impounded a lake with a projected maximum volume of 3. 15 ?? 10 8 m 3, potentially inundating 8. 92 km 2 of terrain. Its creation during the rainy season and the possibility of an uncontrolled release posed a serious, impending threat to at least 1. 3 million people downstream that could add substantially to the total of 69,200 individuals directly killed by the earthquake. Risk assessment of the blockage indicated that it was unlikely to collapse suddenly, and that eventual overtopping could be mitigated by notching the structure in order to create an engineered breach and achieve safe drainage of the lake. In addition to the installation of monitoring and warning instrumentation, for emergency planning we estimated several outburst scenarios equivalent to 20, 25, 33, and 50% of the dam failing suddenly, creating, respectively, 3. 35, 3. 84, 4. 22, and 4. 65 km 2 of flooded area, and overbank water depths of 4. 6, 5. 1, 5. 7, and 6. 2 m, respectively, in Mianyang, the second largest city in Sichuan Province, 48 km downstream from the blockage. Based on these scenarios, recommendations and plans for excavating a sluiceway, draining the lake, and downstream evacuation were proposed and later were implemented successfully, with the blockage breached by overtopping on June 10, less than a month after dam emplacement. The peak discharge of the release only slightly exceeded the flood of record at Mianyang City. No lives were lost, and significant property damage was avoided. Post-breaching evaluation reveals how future similar mitigation can be improved. Although initial breach erosion was slow, later erosion was judged uncontrollably rapid; increased slope of the engineered channel and adoption of a compound, trapezoid-triangular cross-section can be considered, as can other measures to control the rate of breach incision. Evacuees from Mianyang City spent an unnecessarily long time (12 days) in temporary settlements; more precise risk management planning can reduce this time in the future. ?? 2010 Springer-Verlag.
Evaluation of possible mitigation measures to prevent introduction and spread of African swine fever virus through wild boar
European Food Safety Authority
This scientific report has been prepared in response to a request for urgent scientific and technical assistance under Art 31 of Regulation (EC) No 178/2002, in relation to possible mitigation measures to prevent introduction and spread of African swine fever virus (ASFV). It was requested to assess the feasibility to drastically reduce the wild boar population by hunting or by the use of traps, and to assess if prevention of movement of wild boars by feeding or by artificial physical barrier...
The nitrogen fate beyond the current nutrient mitigation measures: sustainability of an integrated agriculture
Thieu, V.; Billen, G. F.; Garnier, J.; Lancelot, C.; Gypens, N.
Located in the North-Western Europe the terrestrial continuum that includes the Seine, Somme, and Scheldt River basins offers an interesting example of a transborder territory (France, Belgium, and Netherlands) with high-intensity anthropogenic pressures. It well-illustrates the rapid development of modern agriculture in industrialised countries and the resulting severe alteration of water resources and jeopardising the capacity of rural territories to produce drinking water. The corresponding nutrient loads delivered then into the Southern Bight of the North Sea, strongly affect the ecological functioning of the coastal zone. An integrated 'river-ocean' assessment, coupling two deterministic models - the SENEQUE RIVESTRAHLER model simulating nutrient dynamic in the drainage network and the MIRO model describing the ecological functioning coastal ecosystem - points out the relevance of current policy based measures (improvement of waste water treatment) to mitigate phosphorous emissions, while the nitrogen pollution related to agriculture will remain critical despite the implementation of classical management measure (good agricultural practices). Therefore and irrespectively of the current political agenda, a more radical alternative is established, consisting of a generalised shift to an integrated agriculture of all agricultural areas in the three basins, excluding the use of synthetically compounded fertilisers and the importation of livestock feed. Such scenario aims at evaluating whether agriculture, by essence, can conciliate (i) the demand for food and feed by local populations, (ii) a good ecological functioning of aquatic ecosystems and (iii) a balanced nutrient status for the adjacent coastal area. This scenario involves an increased livestock density in the Seine and Somme and a decrease in livestock in the Scheldt basin. It leads to a significant reduction of agricultural production that finally brings the three basins closer to autotrophy/heterotrophy equilibrium, while a persisting requirement of long-distance importation of meat and milk clearly emphasises the unsustainability of the increasing share of animal proteins in the modern human diet. In the more optimistic hypothesis, nitrate concentrations in most of the drainage network would drop below the threshold of 2.25 mgN/l (10 mgNO3/L) which is often considered a threshold for a good ecological status. The excess of nitrogen over silica (with respect to the requirements of marine diatoms) delivered into the coastal zones would be decreased by a factor from 2 to 5, thus strongly reducing, but not entirely eliminating the potential for marine eutrophication. Despite a lack a short-term realism, this alternative could appears - in the line of the 'adapting mosaic' defined by the Millenium Ecosystem Assessement - as an end-point situation to be compared when building future nutrient reduction policies and incentive agricultural measures.
Convex Risk Measures: Lebesgue Property on one Period and Multi Period Risk Measures and Application in Capital Allocation Problem
Assa, Hirbod
In this work we study the Lebesgue property for convex risk measures on the space of bounded c\\`adl\\`ag random processes ($\\mathcal{R}^\\infty$). Lebesgue property has been defined for one period convex risk measures in \\cite{Jo} and earlier had been studied in \\cite{De} for coherent risk measures. We introduce and study the Lebesgue property for convex risk measures in the multi period framework. We give presentation of all convex risk measures with Lebesgue property on boun...
Standards and experience in radon measurement and regulation of radon mitigation in Austria
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Over the past 15 years scientific research and application-oriented research were carried out in Austria to resolve the radon problem. In this paper, the strategy and progression of radon research in Austria and experience gained by practical implementation of the main findings are shown and discussed comprehensively. The overview includes the results of the national radon survey, radon mitigation and precaution studies, indoor-air studies at kindergartens and schools, soil-gas radon research, and the establishment of national radon precaution and mitigation standards
Standards and experience in radon measurement and regulation of radon mitigation in Austria.
Maringer, F J; Kaineder, H; Nadschläger, E; Sperker, S
Over the past 15 years scientific research and application-oriented research were carried out in Austria to resolve the radon problem. In this paper, the strategy and progression of radon research in Austria and experience gained by practical implementation of the main findings are shown and discussed comprehensively. The overview includes the results of the national radon survey, radon mitigation and precaution studies, indoor-air studies at kindergartens and schools, soil-gas radon research, and the establishment of national radon precaution and mitigation standards. PMID:18513983
Landscape-scale accessibility of livestock to tigers: implications of spatial grain for modeling predation risk to mitigate human–carnivore conflict
Miller, Jennifer R B; Jhala, Yadvendradev V.; Jena, Jyotirmay; Schmitz, Oswald J
Innovative conservation tools are greatly needed to reduce livelihood losses and wildlife declines resulting from human–carnivore conflict. Spatial risk modeling is an emerging method for assessing the spatial patterns of predator–prey interactions, with applications for mitigating carnivore attacks on livestock. Large carnivores that ambush prey attack and kill over small areas, requiring models at fine spatial grains to predict livestock depredation hot spots. To detect the best resolution ...
A Note on a New Weighted Idiosyncratic Risk Measure
Yin-Ching Jan
This note remedies a risk measure, which was proposed by the work of Jan and Wang (2012). They used property of martingale to measure idiosyncratic risk, and illustrated that it is better than the measurements of variance and semivariance. However, their risk measure can't distinguish between the assets whose return rising firstly and then declining, and the assets whose return declining firstly and then rising. In this note, I propose a remedied method, which puts more weight to the recent...
A process-based model for the definition of hydrological alert systems in landslide risk mitigation
Floris, M.; D'Alpaos, A.; De Agostini, A.; Stevan, G.; Tessari, G.; Genevois, R.
The definition of hydrological alert systems for rainfall-induced landslides is strongly related to a deep knowledge of the geological and geomorphological features of the territory. Climatic conditions, spatial and temporal evolution of the phenomena and characterization of landslide triggering, together with propagation mechanisms, are the key elements to be considered. Critical steps for the development of the systems consist of the identification of the hydrological variable related to landslide triggering and of the minimum rainfall threshold for landslide occurrence. In this paper we report the results from a process-based model to define a hydrological alert system for the Val di Maso Landslide, located in the northeastern Italian Alps and included in the Vicenza Province (Veneto region, NE Italy). The instability occurred in November 2010, due to an exceptional rainfall event that hit the Vicenza Province and the entire NE Italy. Up to 500 mm in 3-day cumulated rainfall generated large flood conditions and triggered hundreds of landslides. During the flood, the Soil Protection Division of the Vicenza Province received more than 500 warnings of instability phenomena. The complexity of the event and the high level of risk to infrastructure and private buildings are the main reasons for deepening the specific phenomenon occurred at Val di Maso. Empirical and physically-based models have been used to identify the minimum rainfall threshold for the occurrence of instability phenomena in the crown area of Val di Maso landslide, where a retrogressive evolution by multiple rotational slides is expected. Empirical models helped in the identification and in the evaluation of recurrence of critical rainfall events, while physically-based modelling was essential to verify the effects on the slope stability of determined rainfall depths. Empirical relationships between rainfall and landslide consist of the calculation of rainfall Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves, which allow one to determine rainfall depth (or intensity) as a function of duration for given return periods or probabilities of exceedance (frequencies). Physically-based modelling was performed through coupled seepage and slope stability analyses. Combining results from empirical and physically-based modelling, the minimum alert threshold for a reactivation of the phenomenon was found in rainfall cumulated up to 60 days with a return period of 2 yr. These results were used to set up a hydrological alert system based on the calibration of DDF curves which can be used as a sort of abacus to plot in real time rainfall depths and to set increasing levels of alert on the basis of the degree of exceptionality of rainfall. The alert system for Val di Maso was successfully tested by the rainfall events that produced displacements which have been recorded by extensometers placed in the crown area after the November 2010 landslide. However, further tests are recommendable to improve the process-based model that led to the implementation of the alert system. To this end, a monitoring system is currently being realized. In the near future, monitoring data will help in testing and improving landslide evolution and alert models. The proposed hydrological alert system proves to be effective mainly because it can be applied to different scales of investigation and geological and geomorphological contexts. In fact, it might also be applicable to territorial scale analyses, as showed by the brief example provided in this paper on how the alert system could be used for landslide early warning in the area surrounding Val di Maso. Furthermore, it is easy to set up. The needed components are a rain gauge station, a software that compares rainfall data to rainfall events with different return periods and degree of alert, and a transmission system of the warning levels to authorities.
A process-based model for the definition of hydrological alert systems in landslide risk mitigation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Floris
Full Text Available The definition of hydrological alert systems for rainfall-induced landslides is strongly related to a deep knowledge of the geological and geomorphological features of the territory. Climatic conditions, spatial and temporal evolution of the phenomena and characterization of landslide triggering, together with propagation mechanisms, are the key elements to be considered. Critical steps for the development of the systems consist of the identification of the hydrological variable related to landslide triggering and of the minimum rainfall threshold for landslide occurrence.
In this paper we report the results from a process-based model to define a hydrological alert system for the Val di Maso Landslide, located in the northeastern Italian Alps and included in the Vicenza Province (Veneto region, NE Italy. The instability occurred in November 2010, due to an exceptional rainfall event that hit the Vicenza Province and the entire NE Italy. Up to 500 mm in 3-day cumulated rainfall generated large flood conditions and triggered hundreds of landslides. During the flood, the Soil Protection Division of the Vicenza Province received more than 500 warnings of instability phenomena. The complexity of the event and the high level of risk to infrastructure and private buildings are the main reasons for deepening the specific phenomenon occurred at Val di Maso.
Empirical and physically-based models have been used to identify the minimum rainfall threshold for the occurrence of instability phenomena in the crown area of Val di Maso landslide, where a retrogressive evolution by multiple rotational slides is expected. Empirical models helped in the identification and in the evaluation of recurrence of critical rainfall events, while physically-based modelling was essential to verify the effects on the slope stability of determined rainfall depths. Empirical relationships between rainfall and landslide consist of the calculation of rainfall Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF curves, which allow one to determine rainfall depth (or intensity as a function of duration for given return periods or probabilities of exceedance (frequencies. Physically-based modelling was performed through coupled seepage and slope stability analyses.
Combining results from empirical and physically-based modelling, the minimum alert threshold for a reactivation of the phenomenon was found in rainfall cumulated up to 60 days with a return period of 2 yr. These results were used to set up a hydrological alert system based on the calibration of DDF curves which can be used as a sort of abacus to plot in real time rainfall depths and to set increasing levels of alert on the basis of the degree of exceptionality of rainfall.
The alert system for Val di Maso was successfully tested by the rainfall events that produced displacements which have been recorded by extensometers placed in the crown area after the November 2010 landslide. However, further tests are recommendable to improve the process-based model that led to the implementation of the alert system. To this end, a monitoring system is currently being realized. In the near future, monitoring data will help in testing and improving landslide evolution and alert models.
The proposed hydrological alert system proves to be effective mainly because it can be applied to different scales of investigation and geological and geomorphological contexts. In fact, it might also be applicable to territorial scale analyses, as showed by the brief example provided in this paper on how the alert system could be used for landslide early warning in the area surrounding Val di Maso. Furthermore, it is easy to set up. The needed components are a rain gauge station, a software that compares rainfall data to rainfall events with different return periods and degree of alert, and a transmission system of the warning levels to authorities.
Distortion risk measures for sums of dependent losses
Brahimi, Brahim; Necir, Abdelhakim
We discuss two distinct approaches, for distorting risk measures of sums of dependent random variables, which preserve the property of coherence. The first, based on distorted expectations, operates on the survival function of the sum. The second, simultaneously applies the distortion on the survival function of the sum and the dependence structure of risks, represented by copulas. Our goal is to propose risk measures that take into account the fluctuations of losses and possible correlations between risk components.
A Note on Portfolio Selections under Various Risk Measures
Giorgi, Enrico Giovanni
This work gives a brief overview of the portfolio selection problem following the mean-risk approach first proposed by Markowitz (1952). We consider various risk measures, i.e. variance, value-at-risk and expected-shortfall and we study the efficient frontiers obtained by solving the portfolio selection problem under these measures. We show that under the assumption that returns are normally distributed, the efficient frontiers obtained by taking value-at-risk or expected-shortfall are subset...
Muhammad Haseeb -; Prof. Xinhailu; Aneesa Bib; Wahab Rabbani
Risks are very common in construction sector. Risk is the possibility of suffering loss and the impact of loss on the involved parties. Firstly risk is identified and then risk assessment and analysis is done. Then Risk management and risk mitigation is carried out. Risks affect construction sector negatively and focusing on risk reduction measures is important. Hazards like earthquakes are also main risks affecting construction sector in Pakistan. To counter earthquake risk, the measures of ...
Simulation based approach for measuring concentration risk
Kim, Joocheol; Lee, Duyeol
Asymptotic Single Risk Factor (ASRF) model is used to derive the regulatory capital formula of Internal Ratings-Based approach in the new Basel accord (Basel II). One of the important assumptions in ASRF model for credit risk is that the given portfolio is well diversified so that one can easily calculate the required capital level by focusing only on systematic risk. In real world, however, idiosyncratic risk of a portfolio cannot be fully diversified away, causing the so called concentratio...
Analysis of mitigating measures during steam/hydrogen distributions in nuclear reactor containments with the 3D field code gasflow
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This paper reports on the recent model additions to the 3D field code GASFLOW and on validation and application analyses for steam/hydrogen transport with inclusion of mitigation measures. The results of the 3D field simulation of the HDR test E11.2 are summarized. Results from scoping analyses that simulate different modes of CO2 inertization for conditions from the HDR test T31.5 are presented. The last part discusses different ways of recombiner modeling during 3D distribution simulations and gives the results from validation calculations for the HDR recombiner test E11.8.1 and the Battelle test MC3. The results demonstrate that field code simulations with computer codes like GASFLOW are feasible today for complex containment geometries and that they are necessary for a reliable prediction of hydrogen/steam distribution and mitigation effects. (author)
Climate change effects on mitigation measures: The case of extreme wind events and Philippines' biofuel plan
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Biofuel production has increased dramatically over the past decade, among other to mitigate climate change. However, climate change vulnerability may currently not be sufficiently accounted for in national biofuel strategies, hence neglecting a possible link between mitigation and adaptation to climate change. To the best of our knowledge this potential link has received very little attention in the literature. One example is the Philippines, which is currently implementing an ambitious program of biofuel production. Its aim is to reduce dependency on imported fuel, increase rural employment and incomes, and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. The Philippines is frequently battered by tropical typhoons and from 1975 to 2002 the annual average damage to agriculture was 3.047 billion pesos. We calculate wind damage on biofuel feedstock production, and assess the effect that a future potential increase in tropical cyclone intensity would have on energy security, rural development and climate change mitigation in the Philippines. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to obtain the future expected development of typhoon impacts. Based on the Philippines legislated target of 10% biodiesel blend in gasoline by 2011, simulation of the affected area for each feedstock, and expected biofuel feedstock damage is computed for the Philippine's 80 provinces in 2050, for two different typhoon climate change scenarios. Additional indirect economic effects are assessed in a tentative way. Thffects are assessed in a tentative way. The results suggest a modest decrease in biofuel feedstock productivity at the national level, but with strong local differences that are shown to affect the Philippine's policy goals. In a broader perspective the paper accentuates a so far little described link between climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation. This link may merit further attention by policy makers and development planners in order to ensure that policies are economically sound not only in the short but also medium term.
Analyzing costs of space debris mitigation methods
Wiedemann, C.; Krag, H.; Bendisch, J.; Sdunnus, H.
The steadily increasing number of space objects poses a considerable hazard to all kinds of spacecraft. To reduce the risks to future space missions different debris mitigation measures and spacecraft protection techniques have been investigated during the last years. However, the economic efficiency has not been considered yet in this context. Current studies have the objective to evaluate the mission costs due to space debris in a business as usual (no mitigation) scenario compared to the missions costs considering debris mitigation. The aim is an estimation of the time until the investment in debris mitigation will lead to an effective reduction of mission costs. This paper presents the results of investigations on the key issues of cost estimation for spacecraft and the influence of debris mitigation and shielding on cost. Mitigation strategies like the reduction of orbital lifetime and de- or re-orbit of non-operational satellites are methods to control the space debris environment. These methods result in an increase of costs. In a first step the overall costs of different types of unmanned satellites are analyzed. A selected cost model is simplified and generalized for an application on all operational satellites. In a next step the influence of space debris on cost is treated, if the implementation of mitigation strategies is considered.
The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Aeken, Koen van; Carle, Benny; Hardeman, Frank [SCK-CEN, Mol (Belgium). PISA
The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences.
The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences
Measuring, and identifying predictors of, women's perceptions of three types of breast cancer risk: population risk, absolute risk and comparative risk
Apicella, C.; Peacock, S. J.; Andrews, L.; Tucker, K.; Daly, M. B.; Hopper, J. L.
Although a key function of cancer genetics services is to provide risk information, to date there has been little consistency in the way in which breast cancer risk perception has been measured. The aims of the study were to measure estimates of (i) population risk, (ii) absolute risk and (iii) comparative risk of developing breast cancer for Ashkenazi Jewish women, and to determine predictors of breast cancer risk perception. Of 152 women, 107 (70%) completed all questions. The mean (s.d.) e...
Value at Risk: A Standard Tool in Measuring Risk : A Quantitative Study on Stock Portfolio
Ofe, Hosea; Okah, Peter
The role of risk management has gained momentum in recent years most notably after the recent financial crisis. This thesis uses a quantitative approach to evaluate the theory of value at risk which is considered a benchmark to measure financial risk. The thesis makes use of both parametric and non parametric approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of VAR as a standard tool in measuring risk of stock portfolio. This study uses the normal distribution, student t-distribution, historical simul...
What risk measures are time consistent for all filtrations?
Cohen, Samuel N
We study coherent risk measures which are time-consistent for multiple filtrations. We show that a coherent risk measure is time-consistent for every filtration if and only if it is one of four main types. Furthermore, if the risk measure is strictly monotone it is linear, and if the reference probability space is not atomic then it is either linear or an essential supremum.
Evaluation of a behavioral measure of risk taking: the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART).
Lejuez, C W; Read, Jennifer P; Kahler, Christopher W; Richards, Jerry B; Ramsey, Susan E; Stuart, Gregory L; Strong, David R; Brown, Richard A
The present study (N = 86) sought to evaluate a laboratory-based behavioral measure of risk taking (the Balloon Analogue Risk Task; BART) and to test associations between this measure and self-report measures of risk-related constructs as well as self-reported real-world risk behaviors. The BART evidenced sound experimental properties, and riskiness on the BART was correlated with scores on measures of sensation seeking, impulsivity, and deficiencies in behavioral constraint. Also, riskiness on the BART was correlated with the self-reported occurrence of addictive, health, and safety risk behaviors, with the task accounting for variance in these behaviors beyond that accounted for by demographics and self-report measures of risk-related constructs. These results indicate that the BART may be a useful tool in the assessment of risk taking. PMID:12075692
Coupling Vector-host Dynamics with Weather Geography and Mitigation Measures to Model Rift Valley Fever in Africa
McMahon, B.H.; Manore, C.A.; Hyman, J.M.; LaBute, M.X.; Fair, J.M.
We present and characterize a multi-host epidemic model of Rift Valley fever (RVF) virus in East Africa with geographic spread on a network, rule-based mitigation measures, and mosquito infection and population dynamics. Susceptible populations are depleted by disease and vaccination and are replenished with the birth of new animals. We observe that the severity of the epidemics is strongly correlated with the duration of the rainy season and that even severe epidemics are abruptly terminated when the rain stops. Because naturally acquired herd immunity is established, total mortality across 25 years is relatively insensitive to many mitigation approaches. Strong reductions in cattle mortality are expected, however, with sufficient reduction in population densities of either vectors or susceptible (ie. unvaccinated) hosts. A better understanding of RVF epidemiology would result from serology surveys to quantify the importance of herd immunity in epidemic control, and sequencing of virus from representative animals to quantify the realative importance of transportation and local reservoirs in nucleating yearly epidemics. Our results suggest that an effective multi-layered mitigation strategy would include vector control, movement control, and vaccination of young animals yearly, even in the absence of expected rainfall. PMID:25892858
Construction and Measurements of an Improved Vacuum-Swing-Adsorption Radon-Mitigation System
Street, J; Dunagan, C; Loose, X; Schnee, R W; Stark, M; Sundarnath, K; Tronstad, D
In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto detector surfaces, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology. An improved vacuum-swing-adsorption radon mitigation system and cleanroom build upon a previous design implemented at Syracuse University that achieved radon levels of $\\sim$0.2$\\,$Bq$\\,$m$^{-3}$. This improved system will employ a better pump and larger carbon beds feeding a redesigned cleanroom with an internal HVAC unit and aged water for humidification. With the rebuilt (original) radon mitigation system, the new low-radon cleanroom has already achieved a $>$$\\,$300$\\times$ reduction from an input activity of $58.6\\pm0.7$$\\,$Bq$\\,$m$^{-3}$ to a cleanroom activity of $0.13\\pm0.06$$\\,$Bq$\\,$m$^{-3}$.
Bank Risk Measurement: A Critical Evaluation at a European Bank
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gunnar Wahlström
Full Text Available This article assesses bank management's perspective on the use and effectiveness of the risk measurement system under Basel II that setcapital requirements for banks. These requirements encouraged the use of risk measurement. Semi-structured interviews with various bank managers at Viking Bank (a fictitious name provide the empirical data for this research. These interviews were conducted after the global financial crisis that led, among other events, to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. Viking Bank was an important European bank that embraced Basel II and risk measurement. In its efforts to implement risk measurement, the bank's management accounting department was reduced and subordinated to the risk measurement department. Risk measurement information became the bank's primary source of information for some loans. However, in their decision-making, managers showed mixed support for risk measurement that had, in some instances, become disconnected from operations. For other loans, they preferred to use their so-called Expert Judgement. The narrow and limited career paths available for the risk measurement specialists also reflected the decreased influence of risk measurement on decision-making at the bank.
Using high-resolution phosphorus data to investigate mitigation measures in headwater river catchments
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. M. Campbell
Full Text Available This study reports the use of high resolution water quality monitoring to assess the influence of changes in landuse management on total phosphorus (TP transfers in two 5 km2 agricultural sub-catchments. Specifically, the work investigates the "wicked problem" of agricultural soil P management and subsequent diffuse transfers at high river flows over a five year timescale. The work also investigates the phenomenon of low flow P pollution from septic tank systems (STS and mitigation efforts – here termed the "filthy issue" of rural catchment management. Results showed an inconsistent response to soil P management over five years with one catchment showing a convergence to optimum P concentrations and the other an overall increase. Both catchments indicated an overall increase in P concentration in defined high flow ranges. Low flow P concentration showed little change or higher P concentrations in defined low flow ranges despite replacement of defective systems and this is possibly due to a number of confounding reasons including increased housing densities due to new-builds. The work indicates fractured responses to catchment management advice and mitigation and that the short to medium term may be an insufficient time to expect the full implementation of policies (here defined as convergence to optimum soil P concentration and mitigation of STS and also to gauge their effectiveness.
Using high-resolution phosphorus data to investigate mitigation measures in headwater river catchments
Campbell, J. M.; Jordan, P.; Arnscheidt, J.
This study reports the use of high-resolution water quality monitoring to assess the influence of changes in land use management on total phosphorus (TP) transfers in two 5 km2 agricultural sub-catchments. Specifically, the work investigates the issue of agricultural soil P management and subsequent diffuse transfers at high river flows over a 5-year timescale. The work also investigates the phenomenon of low flow P pollution from septic tank systems (STSs) and mitigation efforts - a key concern for catchment management. Results showed an inconsistent response to soil P management over 5 years with one catchment showing a convergence to optimum P concentrations and the other an overall increase. Both catchments indicated an overall increase in P concentration in defined high flow ranges. Low flow P concentration showed little change or higher P concentrations in defined low flow ranges despite replacement of defective systems and this is possibly due to a number of confounding reasons including increased housing densities due to new-builds. The work indicates fractured responses to catchment management advice and mitigation and that the short to medium term may be an insufficient time to expect the full implementation of policies (here defined as convergence to optimum soil P concentration and mitigation of STSs) and also to gauge their effectiveness.
Measuring the value of reduced health risks: the hedonic price technique applied on the case of radon radiation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The purpose of this study is to estimate the value of reduced health risks due to decreased radon radiation in single-family houses. The presence of radon - a radioactive gas - in houses is a serious health problem in Sweden. It is estimated that radon radiation will cause about 1100 cases of lung cancer each year during the 1990's. Estimates of the value of reducing radon radiation risks may be useful for cost-benefit analyses regarding, for instance, governmental policies concerning measures against radon radiation. By the aid of the hedonic price technique, the maximum willingness to pay of a household for a change from a radiation level higher than the former Swedish standard for radon radiation (400 Becquerel per cubic metre of air, Bq/m3) to a radiation level below this standard is estimated. The hedonic price technique is one of the methods designed for estimation of peoples valuation of non-market goods. It is argued that this study provides a good opportunity to try the usefulness of this valuation method. The estimation procedure employed in this study is based on a simplified version of a theoretical model described by Epple. The conclusion drawn after this comparison is that households that are not mitigating are likely to be those who think that the mitigation costs are high. It is also noted that if the existing governmental grants to mitigating households become more popular, they should have a large influence on the amount of mitigations, siinfluence on the amount of mitigations, since they, in many cases, decrease mitigation costs to a level below households maximum willingness to pay for reduced radon radiation. (56 refs.) (au)
Radon mitigation survey among New York State residents living in high radon homes.
Wang, Y; Ju, C; Stark, A D; Teresi, N
Residential exposure to radon has been considered an important environmental risk factor for lung cancer. Since 1986, U.S. EPA has recommended that all dwellings below the third floor be tested for the presence of radon and be mitigated to reduce indoor radon in homes with levels exceeding 148 Bq m(-3). In order to evaluate the effectiveness of New York State Department of Health's efforts to increase public awareness about radon risk and to promote radon testing and mitigation in compliance with EPA's guideline, a statewide radon mitigation survey was conducted between September 1995 and January 1996 among New York State residents whose homes had radon levels equal to or greater than 148 Bq m(-3) on the first floor (or above) living areas. The survey found that about 60% of 1,113 participants had taken actions for radon mitigation. The percentage of respondents who took actions to reduce radon levels in their homes increased with increasing education level as well as household income level. The method of installing a powered system to provide more ventilation was a more effective mitigation method than opening widows/doors or sealing cracks/openings in the basement. Mitigation performed by contractors was more effective in reducing radon levels than mitigation performed by residents. The reasons for performing radon mitigation given by the majority of respondents were those strongly related to radon health risk. High home radon level was an important motivational factor to stimulate radon mitigation. On the other hand, the cost of radon mitigation was a major barrier in decision making for performing radon mitigation and for selecting mitigation measures. Thus, public educational campaigns that focus on increasing awareness and knowledge about radon health risks and development of less expensive radon mitigation methods may help in promoting radon mitigation. PMID:10492346
Why changing the way to measure the risk ?
Salvi, Olivier; Gaston, Didier
The SEVESO II Directive gives the rules to identify high risk potential establishments with the amount of hazardous substances handled and their operators have to produce safety reports. Although rules are well established to identify potential risk, there is no method to measure the risk level which takes into account safety devices and safety management Systems implemented by operators.
Convex Risk Measures: Lebesgue Property on one Period and Multi Period Risk Measures and Application in Capital Allocation Problem
Assa, Hirbod
In this work we study the Lebesgue property for convex risk measures on the space of bounded c\\`adl\\`ag random processes ($\\mathcal{R}^\\infty$). Lebesgue property has been defined for one period convex risk measures in \\cite{Jo} and earlier had been studied in \\cite{De} for coherent risk measures. We introduce and study the Lebesgue property for convex risk measures in the multi period framework. We give presentation of all convex risk measures with Lebesgue property on bounded c\\`adl\\`ag processes. To do that we need to have a complete description of compact sets of $\\mathcal{A}^1$. The main mathematical contribution of this paper is the characterization of the compact sets of $\\mathcal{A}^p$ (including $\\mathcal{A}^1$). At the final part of this paper, we will solve the Capital Allocation Problem when we work with coherent risk measures.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Since 1987, more than 40 schools in Maryland, Virginia, Tennessee and North Carolina were visited by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). School characteristics that potentially influence radon entry and impact mitigation system design and performance were identified. Mitigation systems that had proven successful in house mitigation were then installed in several of these schools. Many of the systems were installed by school personnel with some assistance from EPA and an experienced radon diagnostician. This article presents the diagnostic measurements made in the schools and it discusses in detail the specific mitigation systems that were installed in four Maryland schools by the EPA
Risk measurement and management in a crisis-prone world
Wong, Woon K.; Copeland, Laurence
The current subprime crisis has prompted us to look again into the nature of risk at the tail of the distribution. In particular, we investigate the risk contribution of an asset, which has infrequent but huge losses, to a portfolio using two risk measures, namely Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). While ES is found to measure the tail risk contribution effectively, VaR is consistent with intuition only if the underlying return distribution is well behaved. To facilitate the use...
VAR Methodology Used for Exchange Risk Measurement and Prevention
Florentina Balu; Ion Stancu
In this article we discuss one of the modern risk measuring techniques Value-at-Risk (VaR). Currently central banks in major money centers, under the auspices of the BIS Basle Committee, adopt the VaR system to evaluate the market risk of their supervised banks. Banks regulators ask all commercial banks to report VaRs with their internal models. Value at risk (VaR) is a powerful tool for assessing market risk, but it also imposes a challenge. Its power is its generality. Unlike market risk me...
GHG (Greenhouse Gases) emission inventory and mitigation measures for public district heating plants in the Republic of Serbia
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
As a non-Annex I Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol signatory, the Republic of Serbia has committed to develop GHG (Greenhouse Gases) emission inventory and prepare comprehensive program of mitigation measures at national level. The paper presents results of 2000–2008 GHG emission inventory assembled for PDH (Public District Heating) sub-sector in accordance with revised IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Tier 1 methodology. Evaluation of proposed mitigation measures was performed based on 2012 and 2015 GHG emission projections, obtained for basic and four alternative scenarios, all characterized by the same energy demand but with different fuel mix used. The first alternative scenario addresses GHG emissions in case that solid fuel is substituted by natural gas. The second alternative scenario represents a sub-scenario of the first alternative scenario, with additional substitution of liquid fuel with locally available biomass. Third alternative scenario addresses emissions resulting from complete fuel switch from natural gas to liquid fuel oil, while the final alternative scenario considers the case when natural gas is the only energy resource used. GHG emission trends in the period until 2015, examined in case of previously mentioned basic and four alternative scenarios, point out to the positive impact of fuel switch on GHG emission reduction and pathways for future implementation of proposed mitigation measures. Results obtained clearly quantified assumption that fuel substitution by locally available biomass could solve environmental problems, overcome problems associated with high prices of imported fuels, improve energy supply security and increase local employment
Risk importance measures in the dynamic flowgraph methodology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This paper presents new risk importance measures applicable to a dynamic reliability analysis approach with multi-state components. Dynamic reliability analysis methods are needed because traditional methods, such as fault tree analysis, can describe system's dynamical behaviour only in limited manner. Dynamic flowgraph methodology (DFM) is an approach used for analysing systems with time dependencies and feedback loops. The aim of DFM is to identify root causes of a top event, usually representing the system's failure. Components of DFM models are analysed at discrete time points and they can have multiple states. Traditional risk importance measures developed for static and binary logic are not applicable to DFM as such. Some importance measures have previously been developed for DFM but their ability to describe how components contribute to the top event is fairly limited. The paper formulates dynamic risk importance measures that measure the importances of states of components and take the time-aspect of DFM into account in a logical way that supports the interpretation of results. Dynamic risk importance measures are developed as generalisations of the Fussell-Vesely importance and the risk increase factor. -- Highlights: • New risk importance measures are developed for the dynamic flowgraph methodology. • Dynamic risk importance measures are formulated for states of components. • An approach to handle failure modes of a component in DFM is presented. • Dynamic risk importance measures take failure times into account. • Component's influence on the system's reliability can be analysed in detail
Dermatologic radiotherapy and thyroid cancer. Dose measurements and risk quantification
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thyroid doses for various dermatologic radiation techniques were measured with thermoluminescent dosimeters and ionization rate meters in an Alderson-Rando anthropomorphic phantom. The effects of changes in radiation quality and of the use or nonuse of treatment cones and thyroid shields were evaluated in detail. The results indicate that the potential risk of radiogenic thyroid cancer is very small when proper radiation protection measures are used. The probability of radiogenic thyroid cancer developing and the potential mortality risk were assessed quantitatively for each measurement. The quantification of radiation risks allows comparisons with risks of other therapeutic modalities and the common hazards of daily life
Dynamic portfolio managment based on complex quantile risk measures
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ekaterina V. Tulupova
Full Text Available The article focuses on effectiveness evaluation combined measures of financial risks, which are convex combinations of measures VaR, CVaR and their analogues for the right distribution tail functions of a portfolio returns.
Nuclear risk reduction measures and restraint regime in South Asia
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
A nuclear restraint is a central objective in any nuclear environment. Changing dynamics of the nuclear arena, Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) and Nuclear Risk Reduction Measures (NRRM) are discussed
Cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gases mitigation measures in the European agro-forestry sector: a literature survey
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Over the last 20 years, climate change has become an increasing concern for scientists, public opinions and policy makers. Due to the pervasive nature of its impacts for many important aspects of human life, climate change is likely to influence and be influenced by the most diverse policy or management choices. This is particularly true for those interventions affecting agriculture and forestry: they are strongly dependent on climate phenomena, but also contribute to climate evolution being sources of and sinks for greenhouse gases (GHG). This paper offers a survey of the existing literature assessing cost-effectiveness and efficiency of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies or the effects of broader economic reforms in the agricultural and forestry sectors. The focus is mainly on European countries. Different methodological approaches, research questions addressed and results are examined. The main findings are that agriculture can potentially provide emissions reduction at a competitive cost, mainly with methane abatement, while carbon sequestration seems more cost-effective with appropriate forest management measures. Afforestation, cropland management and bioenergy are less economically viable measures due to competition with other land use. Mitigation policies should be carefully designed either to balance costs with expected benefits in terms of social welfare. Regional variability is one of the main drawbacks to fully assess the cost-effectiveness of different ssess the cost-effectiveness of different measures. Integration of models to take into account both social welfare and spatial heterogeneity seems to be the frontier of the next model generation
Evaluating the effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures: The case of Xiamen city, China
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
To assess the effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures, a detailed Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model is developed and applied to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in Xiamen city. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future energy strategies in relation to the development of Xiamen city. The 'Business as Usual' scenario assumes that the government will do nothing to influence the long-term trends of urban energy demand. An 'Integrated' scenario, on the other hand, is generated to assess the cumulative impact of a series of available reduction measures: clean energy substitution, industrial energy conservation, combined heat and power generation, energy conservation in building, motor vehicle control, and new and renewable energy development and utilization. The reduction potentials in energy consumption and GHG emissions are estimated for a time span of 2007-2020 under these different scenarios. The calculation results in Xiamen show that the clean energy substitution measure is the most effective in terms of energy saving and GHG emissions mitigation, while the industrial sector has the largest abatement potential.
Investigation of radon entry and effectiveness of mitigation measures in seven houses in New Jersey: Midproject report
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
A detailed radon mitigation study is in progress in 14 homes in the New Jersey Piedmont area. The principal goals are the refinement of diagnostic measurements for selection and implementation of mitigation systems, and the reduction of radon concentrations to acceptable levels inside the study houses. Monitoring stations were installed in each home in October, 1986. Instrumented measurements included: basement and upstairs radon; differential pressures across the basement/subslag, basement/upstairs and basement/outdoor interfaces; temperatures at basement, upstairs and outdoor locations; and central air handler usage. A weather station was located at one house, monitoring wind speed and direction; barometric pressure; precipitation; soil temperature; and outdoor temperature and relative humidity. A time-averaged value of all of the above parameters was recorded every 30 min. Several additional parameters were monitored on an intermittent basis in all or selected homes. These include multizone air infiltration rates which have been measured in all homes using passive perfluorocarbon tracers (PFT) and in two homes using a constant concentration tracer gas system (CCTG). Total radon progeny, soil gas radon concentration and permeability characteristics, and gamma radiation levels were also monitored periodically in all study homes. 10 refs., 53 figs
Cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gases mitigation measures in the European agro-forestry sector: a literature survey
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Povellato, Andrea [Istituto Nazionale di Economia Agraria (INEA), Via dell' Universita, 14, I-35020 Legnaro (PD) (Italy); Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Castello, 5252, I-30122 Venice (Italy); Bosello, Francesco [Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Castello, 5252, I-30122 Venice (Italy); Giupponi, Carlo [Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Castello, 5252, I-30122 Venice (Italy) and Universita degli Studi di Milano, Dipartimento di Produzione Vegetale, Via Celoria, 2, I-20133 Milan (Italy)]. E-mail: email@example.com
Over the last 20 years, climate change has become an increasing concern for scientists, public opinions and policy makers. Due to the pervasive nature of its impacts for many important aspects of human life, climate change is likely to influence and be influenced by the most diverse policy or management choices. This is particularly true for those interventions affecting agriculture and forestry: they are strongly dependent on climate phenomena, but also contribute to climate evolution being sources of and sinks for greenhouse gases (GHG). This paper offers a survey of the existing literature assessing cost-effectiveness and efficiency of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies or the effects of broader economic reforms in the agricultural and forestry sectors. The focus is mainly on European countries. Different methodological approaches, research questions addressed and results are examined. The main findings are that agriculture can potentially provide emissions reduction at a competitive cost, mainly with methane abatement, while carbon sequestration seems more cost-effective with appropriate forest management measures. Afforestation, cropland management and bioenergy are less economically viable measures due to competition with other land use. Mitigation policies should be carefully designed either to balance costs with expected benefits in terms of social welfare. Regional variability is one of the main drawbacks to fully assess the cost-effectiveness of different measures. Integration of models to take into account both social welfare and spatial heterogeneity seems to be the frontier of the next model generation.
Construction and measurements of a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system
Schnee, R. W.; Bunker, R.; Ghulam, G.; Jardin, D.; Kos, M.; Tenney, A. S.
Long-lived alpha and beta emitters in the $^{222}$Rn decay chain on (and near) detector surfaces may be the limiting background in many experiments attempting to detect dark matter or neutrinoless double-beta decay, and in screening detectors. In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto the wires of the BetaCage during its assembly, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at Syracuse University using a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation...
Measures of association applied to operational risks
Salini, Silvia
Association rules are a basic analysis tools for unstructured data such as accident reports, call centres recordings and CRM logs. Such tools are commonly used in basket analysis of shopping carts for identifying patterns in consumer behaviour. In this chapter we show how association rules are used to analyze unstructured operational risk data in order to provide risk assessments and diagnostic insights. We will also present a new graphical display of association rules that permits effective ...
Epidemiological study on risk factors and risk reducing measures for campylobacter infections in Dutch broiler flocks.
van de Giessen, A. W.; Bloemberg, B. P.; Ritmeester, W. S.; Tilburg, J. J.
From September 1991 until August 1993 an epidemiological study involving 20 Dutch broiler farms was conducted to identify risk factors and risk reducing measures for campylobacter infections in broiler flocks. Campylobacter spp. were detected in 64 (57%) of the 112 broiler flocks and in 25 (63%) of the 40 broiler cycles examined. Univariate analysis of farm management data was performed followed by logistic regression analysis of selected risk and risk reducing factors. The presence of other ...
Radon mitigation survey among New York State residents living in high radon homes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
In order to evaluate the effectiveness of New York State Department of Health's efforts to increase public awareness about radon risk and to promote radon testing and mitigation in compliance with EPA's guideline, a statewide radon mitigation survey was conducted between September 1995 and January 1996 among New York State residents whose homes had radon levels equal to or greater than 148 Bq m-3 on the first floor (or above) living areas. The survey found that about 60% of 1,113 participants had taken actions for radon mitigation. The percentage of respondents who took actions to reduce radon levels in their homes increased with increasing education level as well as household income level. The method of installing a powered system to provide more ventilation was a more effective mitigation method than opening windows/doors or sealing cracks/openings in the basement. Mitigation performed by contractors was more effective in reducing radon levels than mitigation performed by residents. The reasons for performing radon mitigation given by the majority of respondents were those strongly related to radon health risk. High home radon level was an important motivational factor to stimulate radon mitigation. On the other hand, the cost of radon mitigation was a major barrier in decision making for performing radon mitigation and for selecting mitigation measures
Design measures for prevention and mitigation of severe accidents at advanced water cooled reactors. Proceedings of a technical committee meeting
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Over 8500 reactor-years of operating experience have been accumulated with the current nuclear energy systems. New generations of nuclear power plants are being developed, building upon this background of experience. During the last decade, requirements for equipment specifically intended to minimize releases of radioactive material to the environment in the event of a core melt accident have been introduced, and designs for new plants include measures for preventing and mitigating a range of severe accident scenarios. The IAEA Technical Committee Meeting on Impact of Severe Accidents on Plant Design and Layout of Advanced Water Cooled Reactors was jointly organized by the Department of Nuclear Energy and the Department of Nuclear Safety to review measures which are being incorporated into advanced water cooled reactor designs for preventing and mitigating severe accidents, the status of experimental and analytical investigations of severe accident phenomena and challenges which support design decisions and accident management procedures, and to understand the impact of explicitly addressing severe accidents on the cost of nuclear power plants. This publication is intended to provide an objective source of information on this topic. It includes 14 papers presented at the Technical Committee meeting held in Vienna between 21-25 October 1996. It also includes a Summary and Findings of the Working Groups. The papers were grouped in three sections. A separate abstract was prepared for each paper
CO{sub 2}-mitigation measures through reduction of fossil fuel burning in power utilities. Which road to go?
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kaupp, A. [Energetica International Inc., Suva (Fiji)
Five conditions, at minimum, should be examined in the comparative analysis of CO{sub 2}-mitigation options for the power sector. Under the continuing constraint of scarce financial resources for any private or public investment in the power sector, the following combination of requirements characterise a successful CO{sub 2}-mitigation project: (1) Financial attractiveness for private or public investors. (2) Low, or even negative, long range marginal costs per ton of `CO{sub 2} saved`. (3) High impact on CO{sub 2}-mitigation, which indicates a large market potential for the measure. (4) The number of individual investments required to achieve the impact is relatively small. In other words, logistical difficulties in project implementation are minimised. (5) The projects are `socially fair` and have minimal negative impact on any segment of the society. This paper deals with options to reduce carbonaceous fuel burning in the power sector. Part I explains how projects should be selected and classified. Part II describes the technical options. Since reduction of carbonaceous fuel burning may be achieved through Demand Side Management (DSM) and Supply Side Management (SSM) both are treated. Within the context of this paper SSM does not mean to expand power supply as demand grows. It means to economically generate and distribute power as efficiently as possible. In too many instances DSM has degenerated into efficient lighting programs and utility managed incentives and rebate programs. To what extent this is a desirable situation for utilities in Developing Countries that face totally different problems as their counterparts in highly industrialised countries remains to be seen. Which road to go is the topic of this paper.
Construction and measurements of a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Long-lived alpha and beta emitters in the 222Rn decay chain on (and near) detector surfaces may be the limiting background in many experiments attempting to detect dark matter or neutrinoless double beta decay, and in screening detectors. In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto the wires of the Beta Cage during its assembly, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at Syracuse University using a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system. The radon filter shows ?20× reduction at its output, from 7.47±0.56 to 0.37±0.12 Bq/m3, and the cleanroom radon activity meets project requirements, with a lowest achieved value consistent with that of the filter, and levels consistently 3
Construction and measurements of a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system
Schnee, R. W.; Bunker, R.; Ghulam, G.; Jardin, D.; Kos, M.; Tenney, A. S.
Long-lived alpha and beta emitters in the 222Rn decay chain on (and near) detector surfaces may be the limiting background in many experiments attempting to detect dark matter or neutrinoless double beta decay, and in screening detectors. In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto the wires of the Beta Cage during its assembly, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at Syracuse University using a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system. The radon filter shows ˜20× reduction at its output, from 7.47±0.56 to 0.37±0.12 Bq/m3, and the cleanroom radon activity meets project requirements, with a lowest achieved value consistent with that of the filter, and levels consistently < 2 Bq/m3.
Construction and measurements of a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Schnee, R. W.; Bunker, R.; Ghulam, G.; Jardin, D.; Kos, M.; Tenney, A. S. [Department of Physics, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13244 (United States)
Long-lived alpha and beta emitters in the {sup 222}Rn decay chain on (and near) detector surfaces may be the limiting background in many experiments attempting to detect dark matter or neutrinoless double beta decay, and in screening detectors. In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto the wires of the Beta Cage during its assembly, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at Syracuse University using a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system. The radon filter shows ?20× reduction at its output, from 7.47±0.56 to 0.37±0.12 Bq/m{sup 3}, and the cleanroom radon activity meets project requirements, with a lowest achieved value consistent with that of the filter, and levels consistently < 2 Bq/m{sup 3}.
Construction and measurements of a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system
Schnee, R W; Ghulam, G; Jardin, D; Kos, M; Tenney, A S
Long-lived alpha and beta emitters in the $^{222}$Rn decay chain on (and near) detector surfaces may be the limiting background in many experiments attempting to detect dark matter or neutrinoless double-beta decay, and in screening detectors. In order to reduce backgrounds from radon-daughter plate-out onto the wires of the BetaCage during its assembly, an ultra-low-radon cleanroom is being commissioned at Syracuse University using a vacuum-swing-adsorption radon-mitigation system. The radon filter shows ~20$\\times$ reduction at its output, from 7.47$\\pm$0.56 to 0.37$\\pm$0.12 Bq/m$^3$, and the cleanroom radon activity meets project requirements, with a lowest achieved value consistent with that of the filter, and levels consistently < 2 Bq/m$^3$.
Marel´s expansions in Vietnam: maximizing the returns and mitigating the risks : can Export Credit Agencies help?
Dinh, Trung Quang
When private companies engage in cross border trade and/or investments in emerging market economies they are faced with risks that are different from risks in domestic markets. Emerging markets can offer opportunities for high returns, but at the same time the risks, including both commercial and non-commercial risks, can be high. Those risks need to be managed. Many private companies in developed economies and their business partners in emerging markets, including Vietnam, do not seem to be ...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Raaz K. Maheshwari
Full Text Available Groundwater pollution has become a drastic problem principally because of nature and wide spread use of modern chemicals viz. pesticides and fertilizers. Excessive application of fertilizers as well as organic wastes and sewage has been implicated in the nitrogen pollution of groundwater. Therefore, the issue of rising nitrate concentration in groundwater has become a subject of extensive research in India and Rajasthan in particular. In natural water, nitrate ((NO3- N is usually 100ppm and in organic matters (amine and /or amides resulting in the production of nitrosamines (carcinogens. Number of cases (human and livestock, suffering from gastric cancer have been observed. Reverse osmosis (RO process has great potential in the mitigation of nitrate ion containing waters. Generally, the presence of particular substances may affect the removal of specific ions. The presence of di-hydrogen phosphate ions (DHP-ions in the feed solution enhances the nitrate removal efficiency of the polyamide RO membrane. In this present research work, a Flmtec TW30, polyamide thin-film composite, RO membrane was used for nitrate removal through RO set up. The rejection of individual nitrate was found to be around 76%. After addition of KH2¬PO4 to the feed containing nitrate ions the rejection was improved up to 84. This high level of increment in rejection of nitrate ion indicates the possible usage of KH2¬PO4 in RO for nitrate removal. This fact of removal is due to the K+ ions binding to the electronic lone-pairs of polyamide membrane holding di-hydrogen phosphate ions. This establishes a negative layer on the surface of the membrane. The diffusion of nitrate through the membrane is diminished by the formed layer. Present manuscript delineates clinical manifestations of nitrate toxicity and mitigation of nitrate ion by means of state-of-the-art reverse osmosis technology.
EPA program to demonstrate mitigation measures for indoor radon: initial results
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
EPA has installed radon mitigation techniques in 18 concrete block basement homes in the Reading Prong region of eastern Pennsylvania. Three alternative active soil ventilation approaches were tested: suction on the void network within the concrete block basement walls; suction on the footing drain tile system; and suction on the aggregate underneath the concrete slab. The initial 18 mitigation installations were designed to demonstrate techniques which would have low to moderate installation and operating costs. Where effective closure of major openings in the block walls is possible, suction on the wall voids has proved to be extremely effective, able to reduce homes having very high radon Working Levels (up to 7 WL) to 0.02 WL and less. However, where inaccessible major openings are concealed within the wall, it is more difficult and/or more expensive to develop adequate suction on the void network, and performance is reduced. Testing is continuing to demonstrate the steps required to achieve high performance with wall suction in homes with such difficult-to close walls. Drain tile suction can be very effective where the drain tiles completely surround the home; drain tile suction is the least expensive and most aesthetic of the active soil ventilation approaches, but appears susceptible to spikes in radon levels when the basement is depressurized. Sub-slab suction as tested in this study - with one or two individual suction points in the slab - does not appear adequate to ensure sustained high levels of reduction on block wall basement homes; it appears to effectively treat slab-related soil gas entry routes so long as a uniform layer of aggregate is present, but it does not appear to effectively treat the wall-related entry routes. Closure of major openings might have improved sub-slab suction performance. 5 figures, 3 tables
Landscape-scale accessibility of livestock to tigers: implications of spatial grain for modeling predation risk to mitigate human–carnivore conflict
Miller, Jennifer R B; Jhala, Yadvendradev V; Jena, Jyotirmay; Schmitz, Oswald J
Innovative conservation tools are greatly needed to reduce livelihood losses and wildlife declines resulting from human–carnivore conflict. Spatial risk modeling is an emerging method for assessing the spatial patterns of predator–prey interactions, with applications for mitigating carnivore attacks on livestock. Large carnivores that ambush prey attack and kill over small areas, requiring models at fine spatial grains to predict livestock depredation hot spots. To detect the best resolution for predicting where carnivores access livestock, we examined the spatial attributes associated with livestock killed by tigers in Kanha Tiger Reserve, India, using risk models generated at 20, 100, and 200-m spatial grains. We analyzed land-use, human presence, and vegetation structure variables at 138 kill sites and 439 random sites to identify key landscape attributes where livestock were vulnerable to tigers. Land-use and human presence variables contributed strongly to predation risk models, with most variables showing high relative importance (?0.85) at all spatial grains. The risk of a tiger killing livestock increased near dense forests and near the boundary of the park core zone where human presence is restricted. Risk was nonlinearly related to human infrastructure and open vegetation, with the greatest risk occurring 1.2 km from roads, 1.1 km from villages, and 8.0 km from scrubland. Kill sites were characterized by denser, patchier, and more complex vegetation with lower visibility than random sites. Risk maps revealed high-risk hot spots inside of the core zone boundary and in several patches in the human-dominated buffer zone. Validation against known kills revealed predictive accuracy for only the 20 m model, the resolution best representing the kill stage of hunting for large carnivores that ambush prey, like the tiger. Results demonstrate that risk models developed at fine spatial grains can offer accurate guidance on landscape attributes livestock should avoid to minimize human–carnivore conflict. PMID:25859339
Landscape-scale accessibility of livestock to tigers: implications of spatial grain for modeling predation risk to mitigate human-carnivore conflict.
Miller, Jennifer R B; Jhala, Yadvendradev V; Jena, Jyotirmay; Schmitz, Oswald J
Innovative conservation tools are greatly needed to reduce livelihood losses and wildlife declines resulting from human-carnivore conflict. Spatial risk modeling is an emerging method for assessing the spatial patterns of predator-prey interactions, with applications for mitigating carnivore attacks on livestock. Large carnivores that ambush prey attack and kill over small areas, requiring models at fine spatial grains to predict livestock depredation hot spots. To detect the best resolution for predicting where carnivores access livestock, we examined the spatial attributes associated with livestock killed by tigers in Kanha Tiger Reserve, India, using risk models generated at 20, 100, and 200-m spatial grains. We analyzed land-use, human presence, and vegetation structure variables at 138 kill sites and 439 random sites to identify key landscape attributes where livestock were vulnerable to tigers. Land-use and human presence variables contributed strongly to predation risk models, with most variables showing high relative importance (?0.85) at all spatial grains. The risk of a tiger killing livestock increased near dense forests and near the boundary of the park core zone where human presence is restricted. Risk was nonlinearly related to human infrastructure and open vegetation, with the greatest risk occurring 1.2 km from roads, 1.1 km from villages, and 8.0 km from scrubland. Kill sites were characterized by denser, patchier, and more complex vegetation with lower visibility than random sites. Risk maps revealed high-risk hot spots inside of the core zone boundary and in several patches in the human-dominated buffer zone. Validation against known kills revealed predictive accuracy for only the 20 m model, the resolution best representing the kill stage of hunting for large carnivores that ambush prey, like the tiger. Results demonstrate that risk models developed at fine spatial grains can offer accurate guidance on landscape attributes livestock should avoid to minimize human-carnivore conflict. PMID:25859339
Measuring excessive risk-taking in banking.
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Podpiera, Ji?í; Weill, L.
Ro?. 60, ?. 4 (2010), s. 294-306. ISSN 0015-1920 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : banking sector * risk-taking * portfolio Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.278, year: 2010 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1189_str_294_306_-_weill-podpiera.pdf
Measuring excessive risk-taking in banking
Podpiera, Jir?i?; Weill, Laurent
In this paper writers propose a new approach to the assessment of excessive risktaking by a banking sector. They use the portfolio approach to assess the optimal risk-return combination of a bank's portfolio, based on data for 32 categories of loans. It provides a benchmark for the optimality of the bank's portfolio.
Review of selected state-of-the-art applications of diagnostic measurements for radon-mitigation planning. Report for April 1986-June 1987
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Since late-1984, EPA's AEERL has supported a program to develop and demonstrate radon-mitigation techniques for single-family detached dwellings. As part of the program, projects have been started, directed at developing and demonstrating the use of diagnostic measurements in all phases of the radon-mitigation process. Diagnostic measurements are used to assess: (1) the radon sources strengths, variability, and locations; and, (2) radon transport to the house and its entry and distribution in the house as influenced by environmental, house characteristics, and occupancy factors. The diagnostic measurements reported include: (1) soil-gas grab sampling; (2) communication (air flow or pressure-field extension) tests; (3) whole house infiltration; (4) differential pressure, (5) gamma radiation; and, (6) radon flux. The paper concludes that the above selected diagnostic measurements were especially useful in characterizing houses with indoor radon problems attributable to soil-gas-borne radon that may be amenable to mitigation through the use of subslab ventilation
The Efficiency of Irradiated Garlic Powder in Mitigation of Hypercholesterolemic Risk Factor in High cholesterol Fed Rats
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The present study was conducted to explore the efficiency of radiation processed dried garlic powder at 10, 15 and 20 kGy on the average daily body gain, internal organ weights, certain hematological and biochemical parameters; including total plasma protein, albumin, globulin, total cholesterol, low and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C and HDL-C), triglyceride levels, and aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT) activities in rats fed with a high-cholesterol diet. Experimental rats were fed a high cholesterol diet (10 g kg-1) with and without raw or radiation processed dried garlic powder at the above-mentioned doses for 6 weeks. Control rats were fed a casein diet (C). 20 g kg-1 dietary raw or irradiated dried garlic powder was used to supplemented cholesterol diet (Ch). It was observed that cholesterol-fed (Ch) animals had a significant increase in relative liver weight, plasma total cholesterol, LDL-C, triglyceride levels, LDL/HDL ratio, AST and ALT activities and a significant decrease in HDL-C level compared to the control group of rats fed on a Casein diet (C). However, when the rats were fed with a high cholesterol diet mixed with 20 g kg-1 raw (ChRG) or irradiated dried garlic powder at 10 (ChG10), 15 (ChG15), and 20 kGy (ChG20), there was a significant reduction in their relative liver weight, hemoglobin, haematocrit, plasma total cholesterol, LDL-C, triglyceride levels, LDL/HDL ratio, and i triglyceride levels, LDL/HDL ratio, and increased HDL level and amended AST and ALT activities levels as compared with the group which was on a diet containing high cholesterol without garlic powder (Ch). No significant changes were observed in relative spleen, kidney, lung, heart and testes weights, as well as, the total plasma protein, albumin, globulin concentrations in all of treated groups. These results show that the dietary 20 g kg-1 irradiated dried garlic powder at 10, 15 and 20 kGy are beneficial in reducing plasma cholesterol, triglycerides, LDL-C levels, El-Neily and El-Shennawy, J. Rad. Res. Appl. Sci., Vol. 1272 4, No. 4(B)(2011) LDL/HDL ratio, AST and ALT activities in hypercholesterolemic rats. Irradiated dried garlic powder supplementation, also, increased HDL. In conclusion, irradiated dried garlic powder at 10, 15 and 20 kGy improved the plasma lipid levels in rats fed cholesterol-containing diets and increased the plasma HDL-C and reduced LDL/HDL ratio in groups of rats fed cholesterol-diets. The higher dose used (20 kGy) did not impair the bioactive compounds of dried garlic powder, and it can be used as an additive in cooking and as a protective pharmaceutical supplement for mitigation of hypercholesterolemic risk factor
Evaluation of the varying Naturally Occurring Asbestos mitigation measures at School and Commercial construction projects in California
Kalika, S.
In commercial development or K-12 school construction, project sites are often purchased and much of the planning process completed prior to an assessment of the soils proposed for excavation or potential offhaul. Geologic maps, while initially helpful for identifying potential hazards such as landslides and earthquake faults, are less helpful in the identification of naturally occurring hazardous minerals, such as the seven regulated minerals currently classified as asbestos. Geologic maps identify mafic and ultramafic bedrock zones; however, a skilled geologist with knowledge of asbestos hazards will further visualize the earth-shaping processes that may have resulted in the deposition of naturally occurring asbestos in locations outside mapped ultramafic zones including the base of an alluvial fan or within streambed channels. When sampled as an afterthought prior to disposal, property owners are surprised by the budget-crippling costs of waste handling and disposal of NOA, as well as mitigations required to protect the health of construction workers, the public, and future site occupants. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) continues to lead the way in evaluation and regulation of NOA, through development of the CARB 435 preparation and laboratory analytical method, local enforcement of the Asbestos Airborne Toxic Control Measure for Construction, Grading, Quarrying, and Surface Mining Operations (ATCM), and implementation of dust control measures to protect public health. A thorough site evaluation and construction design includes utilization of the sampling methods developed by the California Geological Survey, laboratory analytical methods within CARB 435, and mitigation measures required by CARB, DTSC, and OSHA for the protection of worker and public health after NOA is discovered. The site evaluation should additionally include an assessment of the future site usage, as regulations differ based on potential health affects to future occupants. Construction and long-term monitoring at an elementary school differs in regulatory requirements from construction of a commercial property. This presentation will highlight two case studies: a school project with several years of advance planning versus a commercial property where NOA was discovered weeks before the start of construction. The presentation will analyze the regulatory differences, mitigation measures, and consideration of the financial impacts that the discovery of NOA can have on a school versus a commercial project.
Using fine-scale fuel measurements to assess wildland fuels, potential fire behavior and hazard mitigation treatments in the southeastern USA
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The inherent spatial and temporal heterogeneity of fuelbeds in forests of the southeastern United States may require fine scale fuel measurements for providing reliable fire hazard and fuel treatment effectiveness estimates. In a series of five papers, an intensive, fine scale fuel inventory from the Savanna River Site in the southeastern United States is used for building fuelbeds and mapping fire behavior potential, evaluating fuel treatment options for effectiveness, and providing a comparative analysis of landscape modeled fire behavior using three different data sources including the Fuel Characteristic Classification System, LANDFIRE, and the Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment. The research demonstrates that fine scale fuel measurements associated with fuel inventories repeated over time can be used to assess broad scale wildland fire potential and hazard mitigation treatment effectiveness in the southeastern USA and similar fire prone regions. Additional investigations will be needed to modify and improve these processes and capture the true potential of these fine scale data sets for fire and fuel management planning.
Distortion risk measures, ambiguity aversion and optimal effort
Robert, Christian; The?rond, Pierre-emmanuel
We consider the class of concave distortion risk measures to study how choice is influenced by the decision-maker's attitude to risk and provide comparative static results. We also assume ambiguity about the probability distribution of the risk and consider a framework à la Klibanoff, Marinacci and Mukerji (2005) to study the value of information that resolves ambiguity. We show that this value increases with greater ambiguity, with greater ambiguity aversion, and in some cases with greater ...
The Midweight Method to Measure Attitudes towards Risk and Ambiguity
Kuilen, G.; Wakker, P. P.
This paper introduces a parameter-free method for measuring the weighting functions of prospect theory and rank-dependent utility. These weighting functions capture risk attitudes, subjective beliefs, and ambiguity attitudes. Our method, called the midweight method, is based on a convenient way to obtain midpoints in the weighting function scale. It can be used both for risk (known probabilities) and for uncertainty (unknown probabilities). The resulting integrated treatment of risk and uncer...
Measuring and evaluating financial risk exposure for energy companies
Opofte, Sonja
Over the last decades, the energy industry has been exposed to significant changes within the world marked. The intention of this thesis has therefore been to measure and evaluate financial risk exposure for energy companies. Financial risk has been the primary subject of this thesis. This subject has further been divided into one prediction and two hypotheses encompassing the theoretical framework of this thesis; recession versus growth, financial risk and investments. The prediction and hyp...
An empirical comparison of different risk measures in portfolio optimization
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Isa Zaidi
Full Text Available Risk is one of the important parameters in portfolio optimization problem. Since the introduction ofthe mean-variance model, variance has become the most common risk measure used by practitionersand researchers in portfolio optimization. However, the mean-variance model relies strictly on theassumptions that assets returns are multivariate normally distributed or investors have a quadratic utilityfunction. Many studies have proposed different risk measures to overcome the drawbacks of variance.The purpose of this paper is to discuss and compare the portfolio compositions and performancesof four different portfolio optimization models employing different risk measures, specifically thevariance, absolute deviation, minimax and semi-variance. Results of this study show that the minimaxmodel outperforms the other models. The minimax model is appropriate for investors who have a strongdownside risk aversion.
Downgrading Complexity in the Exxon Valdez Crisis: Using Information as a Risk Mitigation Tool in Complex Adaptive Systems
Eric Snow
In a high-stakes crisis environment, trial and error can be too costly an approach. The Exxon Valdez oil spill provides an example of how complex adaptive systems can have simple, preventable problems and complex, unpredictable problems can come together with disastrous consequences. Not every possible contingency can be accounted for. However, research and experience can be applied to mitigate these type...
The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the motivational density, to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion
The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour
Thomas, P. J.
A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the "motivational density", to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion.
On the Capital Allocation Problem for a New Coherent Risk Measure in Collective Risk Theory
Hirbod, Assa; Manuel, Morales; Hassan, Omidi Firouzi
In this paper we introduce a new coherent cumulative risk measure on $\\mathcal{R}_L^p$, the space of c\\`adl\\`ag processes having Laplace transform. This new coherent risk measure turns out to be tractable enough within a class of models where the aggregate claims is driven by a spectrally positive L\\'evy process. Moreover, we study the problem of capital allocation in an insurance context and we show that the capital allocation problem for this risk measure has a unique solu...
A hierarchical procedure for calculation of risk importance measures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Starting with a general importance definition based on conditional probabilities, a hierarchical process for calculating such measures from a PRA's numerical results is developed. By the appropriate choice of events in the general definition, measures such as the risk achievement worth and the risk reduction worth can be calculated without requantifying the PRA models. Required approximations are clearly defined and the subsequent constraints on the applicability of the process discussed
Law Invariant Risk Measures Have the Fatou Property
Jouini, Elye?s; Schachermayer, Walter; Touzi, Nizar
S. Kusuoka [K 01, Theorem 4] gave an interesting dual characterizationof law invariant coherent risk measures, satisfying the Fatou property.The latter property was introduced by F. Delbaen [D 02]. In thepresent note we extend Kusuoka's characterization in two directions, thefirst one being rather standard, while the second one is somewhat surprising. Firstly we generalize — similarly as M. Fritelli and E. Rossaza Gianin [FG05] — from the notion of coherent risk measures to the more gener...
Time-Consistency: from Optimization to Risk Measures
Lara, Michel; Lecle?re, Vincent
Stochastic optimal control is concerned with sequential decision-making under uncertainty. The theory of dynamic risk measures gives values to stochastic processes (costs) as time goes on and information accumulates. Both theories coin, under the same vocable of \\emph{time-consistency} (or \\emph{dynamic-consistency}), two different notions: the latter is consistency between successive evaluations of a stochastic processes by a dynamic risk measure as information accumulates (a form of monoton...
Bank Risk Measurement: A Critical Evaluation at a European Bank
Gunnar Wahlström
This article assesses bank management's perspective on the use and effectiveness of the risk measurement system under Basel II that setcapital requirements for banks. These requirements encouraged the use of risk measurement. Semi-structured interviews with various bank managers at Viking Bank (a fictitious name) provide the empirical data for this research. These interviews were conducted after the global financial crisis that led, among other events, to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. ...
Alocação e mitigação dos riscos em parcerias público-privadas no Brasil / Asignación y mitigación de riesgos en la colaboración público-privada en Brasil / Allocating and mitigating risks in public-private partnerships in Brazil
Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)
Carlos Marcio Campos, Lima; Antonio Carlos, Coelho.
Full Text Available O objetivo da pesquisa foi efetuar levantamento das condições referentes à distribuição de risco nas formalizações das parcerias público-privadas no Brasil, a partir do marco legal que instituiu tal forma de implantação de equipamentos sociais no Brasil. Foram avaliados, por pesquisa documental, com [...] o os fatores de riscos estão sendo alocados e distribuídos em 15 contratos celebrados, buscando determinar como são mitigados os riscos inerentes entre os parceiros públicos e privados. Os contratos apresentam definição expressiva dos riscos envolvidos e de sua responsabilidade pelos parceiros. As evidências sinalizaram que os parceiros privados têm absorvido, formalmente, a maioria dos fatores de riscos elencados; contudo, há expressas medidas de mitigação dos riscos atribuídos nos contratos ao parceiro privado, pela intervenção em última instância do ente público envolvido. Abstract in spanish The objective of the research was to survey conditions regarding risk sharing in public-private partnerships contracting in Brazil, from the legal framework establishment that allowed such social equipment deployment in Brazil. It was evaluated through documentary research how the risk factors are b [...] eing allocated and distributed in 15 contracts, seeking to determine how the risks are mitigated between the public and private partners. The contracts have expressive definition of the risks involved and their liability for the partners. The evidences indicated that private partners have formally absorbed most of the risk factors listed; however, there are express risks' mitigation measures granted in contracts to the private partner, by intervention in last instance of the public entity involved. Abstract in english El objetivo de la investigación fue inspeccionar las condiciones en cuanto a la distribución del riesgo en contrataciones por la colaboración público-privada en Brasil, desde que el marco legal estableció tal despliegue de equipamiento social en Brasil. Fueron evaluados, por investigación documental [...] , como los factores de riesgo están siendo asignados y distribuidos en 15 contratos, buscando determinar cómo se mitigan los riesgos entre los socios públicos y privados. Los contratos tienen expresiva definición de los riesgos y su responsabilidad definida para los socios. La evidencia indica que los socios privados formalmente han absorbido la mayoría de los factores de riesgo mencionados; Sin embargo, hay medidas de mitigación de riesgo expreso otorgadas en contratos con el socio privado, por la intervención en última instancia de la entidad pública que se trate.
Prediction and Mitigation of the Effects of Catastrophic Fire on Water Supplies: Science for Risk Reduction and Planning for Future Scenarios
Martin, D. A.; Tindall, J.
Precipitation falling on forests and grasslands provides much of the water to communities across the United States. The U.S. Forest Service estimates that over 3,400 communities are served by water draining land under its jurisdiction alone. Much of this land is subject to wildland fires, which have been increasing in size and severity in the western United States in response to climatic forcing and increased ignitions from human sources. Runoff from burned landscapes can present a significant risk to municipal and agricultural water supplies from ash, sediment, contaminants from burned structures, and fire-fighting chemicals. Several municipalities, including Denver, Colorado, have experienced both short-term and long-term degradation of their water supplies in the aftermath of fires in watersheds upstream from drinking water reservoirs. Scientific efforts to predict and mitigate the effects of catastrophic fire on water supplies have focused on three areas. The first consists of data collection and carefully designed experiments to understand the change of the hydrologic behavior of burned watersheds in response to rain with different intensities, durations, and trajectories as the watersheds recover. Results from these studies are used to validate models that predict watershed response under different initial conditions constrained by remotely-sensed burn severity, topography, rainfall-intensity recurrence probabilities and other factors. These predictions are the basis for rehabilitation measures applied to the landscape to minimize post-fire runoff and erosion. Efforts are under way to incorporate the chemical effects of ash and fire-fighting compounds in decision-support tools. A second area of scientific focus is the characterization of the chemical and physical properties of ash from wildland fire, including ash from structures consumed by fire. The ash chemistry is correlated to remotely- sensed data, type of vegetation that burned, and the underlying geology. Ash affects the hydraulic properties and behavior of soils in burned watersheds while it still mantles the hillslopes, but it is easily delivered to water bodies by rain and wind as a flush of material that affects water chemistry and properties like turbidity and temperature. A third thrust is to identify watersheds that are critical to the function of municipal water supplies and infrastructure to determine their vulnerability to fire and post-fire effects. This information can be used to prioritize areas for fuel treatments or land management practices to minimize the probability of high severity fire and hence the effects of post-fire runoff. Scientific studies are providing crucial information about such topics as changes in soil erodibility, infiltration and runoff after fire, and the effects of vegetation recovery. Even in watersheds where land management actions are limited by topography or land use designation, such as wilderness areas, knowledge of the potential response of burned areas allows water providers to develop rapid-response and long-term plans based on scientific data and tools. Some climate change models are predicting hotter, drier temperatures in certain areas of the United States and a higher probability of larger, more severe wildfires. These predictions have a direct bearing on the potential risk of impairment of water supplies by post-fire runoff and erosion. In an era when water availability and quality are of utmost importance, careful scientific studies focused on the effects of wildland fire on water supplies will continue to inform public policy and decision making on topics of vulnerability and risk reduction.
Thomas, Lloyd
This presentation focuses on the identification of risk management, risk management processes such as: quantification and prioritization; mitigation planning; implementation of risk reduction; and tracking process. It develops examples and answers questions about Risk Management.
Feasibility of Portfolio Optimization under Coherent Risk Measures
Kondor, Imre
It is shown that the axioms for coherent risk measures imply that whenever there is an asset in a portfolio that dominates the others in a given sample (which happens with finite probability even for large samples), then this portfolio cannot be optimized under any coherent measure on that sample, and the risk measure diverges to minus infinity. This instability was first discovered on the special example of Expected Shortfall which is used here both as an illustration and as a prompt for generalization.
Cost effectiveness comparison of certain transportation measures to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in San Diego County, California
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
California's overarching mandate to achieve 1990 levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in 2020 (AB 32, 2005), and the ensuing recent regulations (SB 375, CEQA updates) require local and regional governments to assess GHG mitigation policies, including on-road transportation. The regulations do not make cost-effectiveness a primary criteria for choosing measures but cost remains important to a variety of stakeholders. This communication summarizes results from GHG and cost analysis for seven actual San Diego County road transportation policies: telecommute, vanpools, a bicycle strategy, an increase in mass transit use, parking policies (parking pricing, preferred parking for electric vehicles), an increased local fuel tax and speed harmonization (signal re-timing, roundabouts). Net costs are calculated as the sum of direct costs and benefits to the administering agency, the employer and the individual. Net costs per metric ton GHG abated vary greatly across measures, from negative to high positive (more than US $1000). We find that local GHG cost cannot be sensibly compared to other carbon or GHG policy costs outside the local context for a variety of reasons, but especially because measures have not been adopted primarily for carbon or GHG abatement potential or on the basis of cost effectiveness
An Interaction Model for Simulation and Mitigation of Cascading Failures
Qi, Junjian; Mei, Shengwei
Cascading failures triggered by trivial initial events are encountered in many complex systems. It is actually not any specific reason but the interaction between components of the system that causes cascading failures. Based on this idea interactions between components are quantified and the interaction matrix and interaction network are obtained. By using the quantified interactions, key links and key components that play important roles in the propagation of cascading failures are identified. An interaction model is also proposed to simulate cascading failures by using the interactions and to study the influence of these interactions on the cascading failure risk. Interaction-based mitigation measures are suggested to mitigate the cascading failure risk by eliminating a small number of key links, which can be achieved in real systems by wide area protection such as blocking of some specific protective relays. The proposed interaction quantifying method, cascading failure model, and mitigation measures are ...
A generalized Fourier transform approach to risk measures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
We introduce the formalism of generalized Fourier transforms in the context of risk management. We develop a general framework in which to efficiently compute the most popular risk measures, value-at-risk and expected shortfall (also known as conditional value-at-risk). The only ingredient required by our approach is the knowledge of the characteristic function describing the financial data in use. This allows us to extend risk analysis to those non-Gaussian models defined in the Fourier space, such as Lévy noise driven processes and stochastic volatility models. We test our analytical results on data sets coming from various financial indexes, finding that our predictions outperform those provided by the standard log-normal dynamics and are in remarkable agreement with those of the benchmark historical approach
Evaluation and Preventing Measures of Technological Risks of Food Production
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Igor Vladimirovich Surkov
Full Text Available The goal of the present research is to comprehensively evaluate technological risks of food production through the example of enriched probiotic-containing confectionary. In order to achieve the goal, the following tasks were set: to concretize the "risk" notion related to production, to systemize reasons of technological risks that have negative impact on the quality, to investigate reasons of defects, define their ponderability coefficient using the expert evaluation (through the example of enriched probiotic-containing confectionary, to develop a matrix model of technological risks of defects occurrence while producing food, to determine coefficients of the relevance of reasons that cause defects of enriched probiotic-containing confectionary, to propose a system of measures for decreasing the level of technological risks and preventing defects.
Measures in forensic psychiatry : Risk monitoring and structured outcome assessment
Sturidsson, Knut
Background: Violent offenders suffering from a major mental disorder (MMD) are sometimes publicly portrayed as particularly dangerous. In reality however, only a small fraction of those inflicted with a MMD do commit any violent offence. The present thesis focuses on means to monitor risk of violence and to some extent measure the content and outcome of forensic psychiatric care. The overall aim of this thesis was to investigate forensic psychiatric risk assessments from a b...
Conditional risk measure modeling for Latvian insurance companies
Irina Voronova; Gaida Pettere; Jekaterina Kuzmina
Due to the current economical situation on the Latvian market insurance companies are forced to consider other possibilities of income generation. One of such opportunities could be seen in cash flows from investment operations, while managing stocks' portfolios. The process of portfolio management is tightly connected with adequate risk management. In the current paper we have used copula approach for estimating portfolio's conditional risk measures and though to contribute to the discussi...
The changing landscape of opioid prescribing: long-acting and extended-release opioid class-wide Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gudin JA
Full Text Available Jeffrey A GudinEnglewood Hospital and Medical Center, Englewood, NJ, USAAbstract: Prescriptions for opioid analgesics to manage moderate-to-severe chronic noncancer pain have increased markedly over the last decade, as have postmarketing reports of adverse events associated with opioids. As an unintentional consequence of greater prescription opioid utilization, there has been the parallel increase in misuse, abuse, and overdose, which are serious risks associated with all opioid analgesics. In response to these concerns, the Food and Drug Administration announced the requirement for a class-wide Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS for long-acting and extended-release (ER opioid analgesics in April 2011. An understanding of the details of this REMS will be of particular importance to primary care providers. The class-wide REMS is focused on educating health care providers and patients on appropriate prescribing and safe use of ER opioids. Support from primary care will be necessary for the success of this REMS, as these clinicians are the predominant providers of care and the main prescribers of opioid analgesics for patients with chronic pain. Although currently voluntary, future policy will likely dictate that providers undergo mandatory training to continue prescribing medications within this class. This article outlines the elements of the class-wide REMS for ER opioids and clarifies the impact on primary care providers with regard to training, patient education, and clinical practice.Keywords: long-acting opioid, extended-release opioid, risk, REMS, FDA, primary care
Conditional risk measure modeling for Latvian insurance companies
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Irina Voronova
Full Text Available Due to the current economical situation on the Latvian market insurance companies are forced to consider other possibilities of income generation. One of such opportunities could be seen in cash flows from investment operations, while managing stocks' portfolios. The process of portfolio management is tightly connected with adequate risk management. In the current paper we have used copula approach for estimating portfolio's conditional risk measures and though to contribute to the discussion about appropriate risk management in the insurance companies.
REIMR - A Process for Utilizing Liquid Rocket Propulsion-Oriented 'Lessons Learned' to Mitigate Development Risk in Nuclear Thermal Propulsion
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This paper is a summary overview of a study conducted at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA-MSFC) during the initial phases of the Space Launch Initiative (SLI) program to evaluate a large number of technical problems associated with the design, development, test, evaluation and operation of several major liquid propellant rocket engine systems (i.e., SSME, Fastrac, J-2, F-1). One of the primary results of this study was the identification of the 'Fundamental Root Causes' that enabled the technical problems to manifest, and practices that can be implemented to prevent them from recurring in future propulsion system development efforts, such as that which is currently envisioned in the field of nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP). This paper will discus the Fundamental Root Causes, cite some examples of how the technical problems arose from them, and provide a discussion of how they can be mitigated or avoided in the development of an NTP system
Analysis and mitigation of measurement uncertainties in the traceability chain for the calibration of photovoltaic devices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This paper describes the traceability chain for photovoltaic devices and the measurement methods employed to perform the various transfer steps. The measurement uncertainties are analysed in detail based on the accreditation of the European Solar Test Installation (ESTI) for the calibration of photovoltaic devices. The various contributions to the overall uncertainty are critically analysed for various traceability chain options. A major contribution is the uncertainty in the calibration of the primary reference device. The overall measurement uncertainty is reduced using the ESTI reference cell set compared to the traceability from the world photovoltaic scale. For the maximum power of photovoltaic modules, the expanded combined uncertainty is reduced from ±2.6% to below ±2%. Recommendations are made on the scope for further reduction of uncertainty and for the best calibration strategy for various PV technologies
Proceedings of third Indo-German workshop and theme meeting on seismic safety of structures, risk assessment and disaster mitigation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This Indo-German workshop focuses and emphasises the current research and development activities in both the countries. Themes of this meeting are Earthquake Hazard and Vulnerability Assessment, Risk Assessment Techniques, Seismic Risk to Mega Cities, Testing and Evaluation of Structures and Components, Base Isolation and other Control Techniques, Seismic Strengthening of Structures, Design Practices and Specifications, Remote Sensing and GIS Applications, Structural Materials and Composites, Containment and Other Special Structures. Papers relevant to INIS are indexed separately
Mitigating environmental risks in small-scale activities: what role for microfinance? A case study from El Salvador
Allet, Marion
Small-scale activities in developing countries face environmental risks that represent direct threats to populations' health and livelihoods. Recently, some donors and experts have claimed that microfinance institutions (MFIs) could play a role in fostering pro-environmental behaviours among their client microentrepreneurs. This paper seeks to identify the challenges that an MFI can face when implementing an environmental risk management program. We based our analysis on a case study of a p...
C-Band Airport Surface Communications System Engineering-Initial High-Level Safety Risk Assessment and Mitigation
Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen
This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed C-band (5091- to 5150-MHz) airport surface communication system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents an initial high-level safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the C-band communication system after the profile is finalized and system rollout timing is determined. A security risk assessment has been performed by NASA as a parallel activity. While safety analysis is concerned with a prevention of accidental errors and failures, the security threat analysis focuses on deliberate attacks. Both processes identify the events that affect operation of the system; and from a safety perspective the security threats may present safety risks.
Soil erosion and mitigation measures on rented and owned fields in Uruguay: the impact of transgenic soya and foreign investors
Caon, Lucrezia; Kessler, Aad; Keesstra, Saskia; Cruze, Rick
Governments, companies and individuals with financial capital to invest, are worldwide buying or renting land in developing or third world countries. Uruguay is a developing country whose economy is mainly based on agriculture. Since 2000 many foreigners started to invest in the Uruguayan agricultural sector and to practice intensive large-scale agriculture. The significant presence of foreigners in the country is proven by the fact that almost 360 000 ha out of the 500 000 ha forming the study area were managed by foreigners in 2012. Nowadays farmers have abandoned the traditional crop rotation plan that included pasture to produce grain for export, and transgenic soya (soya RR) became the main crop planted by both foreigners and locals. Besides the high soil erosion rates related to having soya as main crop, planting soya implies the use of glyphosate, a broad-spectrum systemic herbicide leading to important environmental impacts. It is commonly said that foreigners investing in poor countries are exploiting the local natural resources aiming to get the highest possible profit from them. Is this a valid assumption in Uruguay? The purpose of this study was to compare the land management style of foreign and local farmers and to relate it to the soil erosion occurring in the study area. The land tenure (rented or owned fields) and the type of farmer interviewed ("individual farmer" equivalent to L.L.C. or "anonymous society" equivalent to P.L.C.) were taken into consideration during the analysis. Based on what stated by the farmers interviewed, the soil erosion simulations considered the seven most popular crop rotation plans on rented and owned fields, three ideals crop rotation plans, the application of no mitigation measures, and the construction of terraces and conservation buffers. Depending on the crop rotation plan, soils characterized by slope gradients higher than 2 resulted in soil erosion rates higher than the 7 ton/ha/year allowed by law. The highest soil erosion rates corresponded to crop rotation plans having high percentage of soybeans and low percentages of sorghum and/or maize. In addition, the soil erosion rate was even higher when only one crop, especially soybeans, was planted during an agricultural year. Although there were not significant differences in the land management style between foreign and local farmers, the land management style significantly differed between L.L.C. and P.L.C., and between owned and rented fields. Compared to L.L.C., P.L.C. applied more soil erosion mitigation measures on both rented and owned fields and invested in research. Owned fields resulted to be better managed than rented fields in which soil erosion mitigation measures were taken only in presence of an agreement with the landlord. Indeed, although the construction of terraces having a distance of 30-50 m significantly reduced the soil erosion rate, those were mainly built on owned fields.
A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sitima Innocent
Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures
Space collision threat mitigation
Zatezalo, Aleksandar; Stipanovi?, Dušan; Mehra, Raman K.; Pham, Khanh
Mitigation of possible collision threats to current and future operations in space environments is an important an challenging task considering high nonlinearity of orbital dynamics and discrete measurement updates. Such discrete observations are relatively scarce with respect to space dynamics including possible unintentional or intentional rocket propulsion based maneuvers even in scenarios when measurement collections are focused to a one single target of interest. In our paper, this problem is addressed in terms of multihypothesis and multimodel estimation in conjunction with multi-agent multigoal game theoretic guaranteed evasion strategies. Collision threat estimation is formulated using conditional probabilities of time dependent hypotheses and spacecraft controls which are computed using Liapunov-like approach. Based on this formulation, time dependent functional forms of multi-objective utility functions are derived given threat collision risk levels. For demonstrating developed concepts, numerical methods are developed using nonlinear filtering methodology for updating hypothesis sets and corresponding conditional probabilities. Space platform associated sensor resources are managed using previously developed and demonstrated information-theoretic objective functions and optimization methods. Consequently, estimation and numerical methods are evaluated and demonstrated on a realistic Low Earth Orbit collision encounter.
Flood and rockslide mitigative measures for the concrete sections of the Daisy Lake Dam
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Studies conducted under British Columbia Hydro's dam safety program during the early 1980s indicated that dam sections of the Daisy Lake Dam would be overtopped by the probable maximum flood (PMF) and by a postulated slide generated wave (SGW). It was considered that the overtopping by either of the events could cause several sections of the concrete dam to fall, thereby resulting in uncontrolled release of the reservoir. The criteria used for determining foundation strength parameters, static and SGW induced water pressures, effective uplift and the appropriate factors of safety are discussed. The results of the analyses for the original dam sections and the design and implementation of the selected remedial measures are also described. These measures included lowering the Wing Dam and Saddle Dam by about 2 m to increase the spillway capacity and the installation of 43 post-tensioned anchors in the various sections of the main concrete and Wing dams. 9 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs
Evaluation of environmental impacts caused by hydroelectric power plants in native forest areas and mitigation measures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The following work has the intention of demonstrating the importance of native forest to the human life, not only through its inherent qualities as something to preserve, but also as a source of great resources, and in particular hydroelectric resource that, by today's necessities are bounded to be explored. The negative effects caused by the implementation of a hydroelectric plant are shown together with the necessity of adoption of measures that would soften the environment impact of it. For the adoption of those measures, many forest studies were proposed in the search for its complete characterization. Each of these studies are duly defined and presented in their general and specific goals. The most adequate methodology is finally recommended. (author). 14 refs
Modelling of agricultural diffuse pollution and mitigation measures effectiveness inWallonia (Belgium)
Sohier, Catherine; Deraedt, Deborah; Degre?, Aurore
Implementation of European directives in the environmental field and, specially, in the water management field, generates a request from policy-makers for news tools able to evaluate impact of management measures aiming at reducing pressures on ecosystems. In Wallonia (Southern Region of Belgium), the Nitrate Directive (EEC/676/91) was transposed into the "Walloon action plan for nitrogen sustainable management in agriculture" (PGDA1) in 2002. In 2007, a second plan was lau...
Development of Technology Readiness Level (TRL) Metrics and Risk Measures
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Anderson, K. K.; Sivaramakrishnan, Chandrika; Lansing, Carina
This is an internal project milestone report to document the CCSI Element 7 team's progress on developing Technology Readiness Level (TRL) metrics and risk measures. In this report, we provide a brief overview of the current technology readiness assessment research, document the development of technology readiness levels (TRLs) specific to carbon capture technologies, describe the risk measures and uncertainty quantification approaches used in our research, and conclude by discussing the next steps that the CCSI Task 7 team aims to accomplish.
Fuel consumption and life cycle GHG emissions by China's on-road trucks: Future trends through 2050 and evaluation of mitigation measures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
We established a bottom-up model to deliver the future trends of fuel consumption and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by China's on-road trucks. The mitigation measures of mileage utilization rate (MUR) improvement, fuel consumption rate (FCR) improvement, and penetration of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fueled trucks were evaluated. With no mitigation measures implemented, in the year 2050, the total fuel consumption and life cycle GHG emissions by China's on-road trucks were projected to reach 498 million toe and 2125 million tons, respectively, approximately 5.2 times the level in 2010. If the MUR of trucks in China is increased from the current status as those of the developed countries, a 13% reduction of total fuel consumption can be achieved after 2020. If the FCR of trucks is reduced by 10% in 2011, 2016, 2021, and 2026, a 30% reduction of total fuel consumption can be achieved after 2030. Moreover, if the share of LNG fueled trucks in all newly registered semi-trailer towing trucks and heavy-duty trucks is increased to 20% in 2030, an estimate of 7.9% and 10.9% of the total diesel consumption by trucks will be replaced by LNG in 2030 and 2050, respectively. - Highlights: ? We establish a bottom–up model to deliver the fuel consumption and GHG emissions by China's trucks. ? Without mitigation measures, the truck fuel consumption in 2050 will be 5.2 times the level in 2010. ? Fuel conservation and GHG reduction effects of three mitigation measureffects of three mitigation measures were evaluated.
Measuring and hedging financial risks in dynamical world
Karoui, N E
Financial markets have developed a lot of strategies to control risks induced by market fluctuations. Mathematics has emerged as the leading discipline to address fundamental questions in finance as asset pricing model and hedging strategies. History began with the paradigm of zero-risk introduced by Black & Scholes stating that any random amount to be paid in the future may be replicated by a dynamical portfolio. In practice, the lack of information leads to ill-posed problems when model calibrating. The real world is more complex and new pricing and hedging methodologies have been necessary. This challenging question has generated a deep and intensive academic research in the 20 last years, based on super-replication (perfect or with respect to confidence level) and optimization. In the interplay between theory and practice, Monte Carlo methods have been revisited, new risk measures have been back-tested. These typical examples give some insights on how may be used mathematics in financial risk manageme...
Mitigation measures for chromium-VI contaminated groundwater - The role of endophytic bacteria in rhizofiltration.
Dimitroula, Helen; Syranidou, Evdokia; Manousaki, Eleni; Nikolaidis, Nikolaos P; Karatzas, George P; Kalogerakis, Nicolas
A constructed wetland pilot with Juncus acutus L. plants was investigated for its rhizofiltration efficiency in treating Cr(VI)-contaminated groundwater. Measurements of Cr(VI) and total Cr were performed to estimate the rate of removal. In addition, Cr concentration in plant tissues was measured and the role of endophytic bacteria on plant's tolerance to Cr(VI) toxicity was investigated. The results support that J. acutus is able to rhizofiltrate Cr(VI) from contaminated water with up to 140?g/L while Cr content analysis in plant tissues revealed that the majority of Cr was accumulated by the plants. Moreover, two leaf (Acidovorax sp. strain U3 and Ralstonia sp. strain U36) isolated endophytic bacteria were found to tolerated 100mg/L Cr(VI) while nine root isolates showed resistance to 500mg/L Cr(VI). The endophytic bacteria Pseudomonas sp. strain R16 and Ochrobactrum sp. strain R24 were chosen for Cr(VI) reduction assays. All four strains exhibited a strong potential to reduce Cr(VI) to Cr(III) aerobically. Among them Pseudomonas sp. strain R16 was found able to completely reduced 100mg/L Cr(VI) after 150h of incubation. These results suggest that J. acutus is an excellent choice for CWs whose function is the removal of Cr(VI) from contaminated groundwater for subsequent use in crop irrigation. PMID:25160056
Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead
Study on the possibility of measurement of individual risk perception
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
In industry, because of retirement of postwar baby-boom generation and decreasing labor accident by improvement in facilities, diminished worker's risk perception is concerned about. Although hazard prediction activity (KY: Kiken-Yochi) is carried out for improvement of workers' risk perception in sites, it is get into a rut not to estimate the effects of the activity. Then the purpose of this study is to examine the possibility of measuring and estimating individual inherent risk perception not depending on the experiences and knowledge, and to confirm the effects of the experiences and knowledge on one's risk perception. Eleven subjects were requested to detect the hazards and to estimate the results and the extents of damage in the three films (1: working at an office (all subjects had the experience), 2: feeding at the GS (gas station) (half of them had the experience), 3: overhauling a valve (no one had the experience)) that were included in some hazards. The rate of hazards detection and the accuracies of 5 categories, that were hazards, results, damage of human, damage of objects or facilities and coping, were calculated. The experience of feeding had effects on the rate of hazards detection and some of the accuracies at the film of feeding at the GS. Also, all of indices were significantly lower at the firm of overhauling a valve than the firm of working at an office. These results showed that the experiences and knowledge were affected on one's risk perceptioedge were affected on one's risk perception. Meanwhile, the similarity of the tendency to the rate of hazards detection and the accuracies between 2 firms except for the firm of feeding was found by means of the ordinal correlation. The result showed that it will be able to measure the individual inherent risk perception from the number of hazards detection and the depth of the context. The future issues are discussed for developing the method to evaluate the risk perception. (author)
Identification studies about take measures for mitigate of gas emissions greenhouse effect in energy Sector
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
In the Unit Nations Convention about Climatic change has get stability of greenhouse effects in atmosphere concentrations. In the framework to Uruguay Project URU/95/631 have been defined the need to identify, measures, practices, process and technologies for reduce some emissions furthermore in Energy sector. Emission impact, cost-benefit, direct or iundirect, national programs, factibility such as social, politics and Institutional agreements was considered in the present work. It was given emissions proyected for 15 years period 1999-2013 of the following atmospheric pollutants: carbon dioxide,carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides and methane.Eight stages was applied the emission evaluation: natural gas; without natural gas; transport; industrial; Montevidean bus- car demand; natural gas uses in bus-taxi; nitrogen oxides control in thermic centrals; catalytic converters in gasoline cars
Analysis of Hydrogen Risk Mitigation System for Severe Accidents of EU-APR1400 Using MAAP4 code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
According to the EUR (European Utility Requirements for LWR Nuclear Power Plants), it is mandatory that the HMS (Hydrogen Mitigation System) of the Eu-APR1400 should be equipped with a passive or automatic hydrogen control system. Considering this requirement, a PAR (Passive Autocatalytic Recombiner) system was adopted for the HMS of the Eu-APR1400. This passive HMS should be evaluated carefully in order to ensure that the HMS has adequate capacity to control hydrogen concentrations during severe accident conditions and to show that the system can satisfy the design requirements of the EUR. In this paper, analyses were carried out to examine the effectiveness of the HMS incorporated into the Eu- APR1400 design. These analyses were performed using the MAAP (Modular Accident Analysis Program) 4 code. in order to identify whether the HMS could control the average hydrogen concentrations in the containment, such that the concentration would not exceed 10 percent by volume: the analyses also considered whether there was the possibility of inadvertent hydrogen combustion in such processes as FA (Flame Acceleration) and DDT (Deflagration to Detonation Transition)
Epidemiologic measures of risk as a basis for legal compensation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The scientific basis for compensation of persons developing cancer who have a documented history of exposure to radiation or other carcinogens is an important legal issue. The measure Relative Attributable Risk (RAR) has been proposed as a basis for determining eligibility for compensation. The purpose of this report is to present results of an analysis of the magnitude and sources of uncertainty in the RAR measure. The range of 1/106/rad-year to 6/106/rad-year was chosen as a reasonable range of excess-risk estimates for thyroid cancer based on published estimates. The use of such a range in risk estimates produces very wide variability in RAR estimates. Uncertainty in underlying incidence levels and in dosimetry are other major factors contributing to large variability in estimated RAR levels
General acceptance sets, risk measures and optimal capital injections
Farkas, Walter; Munari, Cosimo-Andrea
We consider financial positions belonging to the Banach lattice of bounded measurable functions on a given measurable space. We discuss risk measures generated by general acceptance sets allowing for capital injections to be invested in a pre-specified eligible asset with an everywhere positive payoff. Risk measures play a key role when defining required capital for a financial institution. We address the three critical questions: when is required capital a well-defined number for any financial position? When is required capital a continuous function of the financial position? Can the eligible asset be chosen in such a way that for every financial position the corresponding required capital is lower than if any other asset had been chosen? In contrast to most of the literature our discussion is not limited to convex or coherent acceptance sets and allows for eligible assets that are not necessarily bounded away from zero. This generality uncovers some unexpected phenomena and opens up the field for applicatio...
Proceedings of the Canadian Institute's 4. annual oil sands supply and infrastructure conference : maximizing opportunity and mitigating risks in a rapidly growing market
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This conference addressed the challenges facing oil sands development, with particular reference to supply and infrastructure issues. Updates on oil sands markets and opportunities were presented along with strategies for mitigating risks in a rapidly growing market. The best practices for supplying a demanding market through supply shortages and high prices were identified along with policies that should be implemented to help overcome labour shortages. Some presentations expressed how commodities pricing and trends can impact business. Others showed how markets in China and the United States are prepared for oilsands products. The views of other international companies on oil sands was also discussed along with proposed plans to eliminate the infrastructure congestion and risks caused by expanding oil sands development. The challenges and benefits of investing in Alberta's oil sands were reviewed along with strategies to enhance upgrading and refining capacity in the province. Economic drivers and the creation of new markets were examined, and various export opportunities were reviewed along with industry management challenges concerning human resources, labour supply, training and education. The conference featured 10 presentations, of which 3 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs
Investigation of run-off and stability conditions and design of mitigation measures in Kittelfjøll, Sweden
Lundström, K.; Fallsvik, J.; Andersson, M.
The Swedish society has relatively seldom been negatively affected by destructive debris flows despite the 1 200 km long mountainous area along the Norwegian border. The mountain terrain (Swedish "Fjällen") comprises mountain-peaks as well as mountain-plains. Most of the mountains have a height of around 1000-1500 m above sea level, but also higher mountains exist which show alpine forms. The reason for the low amount of affected constructions is the very low concentration of built up areas in the mountain areas. Anyhow, during the last decades many new ski resorts have been built and the hazard for landslides and debris flows has come up to discussion. Investigations in some areas have shown that mass movements have occurred many times in history but the awareness and knowledge are low. The highest monthly rain precipitation values occur in the mountain terrain in Sweden during July, August and September. In Kittelfjäll the values for the same periods are around 100 mm per month according to readings made by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. These values are expected to increase up to 30 % during the next 100 years due to climate changes. The Swedish Geotechnical Institute, SGI, investigated in 2008 the stability and run-off conditions in the mountainous area Kittelfjäll by commission of the municipality of Vilhelmina. The investigation was initiated due to a new local plan for the area. The aim of the study was (1) to map areas in danger for debris flows and landslides and (2) to suggest preventive measures including a calculation of the amount of material which could be transported in one occasion. The area comprises the largest gully area in Sweden with several 30-50 m deep gullies in a 400 m high till slope along the mountainside. The gullies and their belonging alluvial fans had been overviewed investigated by geomorphologists in the 1950´s. They concluded that the gullies had been formed by several debris flows mainly occurring during heavy summer storms and that the meadows below the slopes are built-up by alluvial masses. During the latest large incident, which happened in 1912, according to local people the local main-road was cut-off and huge amount of material was transported and spread far and wide over the meadows. In that time, however, only handful minor farms existed in the area. The field investigation in 2008 included investigation of the brooks, investigations of wet sections, traces from earlier events, the amount of transportable material available to be carried by debris flows, run-out lengths and assessment of catchment areas and run-off conditions. Based on the field investigation and determination of design precipitation, hazard maps were constructed, preventive measures were suggested and restrictions were given. The preventive measures compile construction of sedimentation dams in the top of the alluvial fans and canalisation of the creeks below. The restrictions consist of buffer zones along the brooks, areas where dwellings should be avoided and forest control plans and yearly erosion inspections. This type of investigation had only been performed once earlier in Sweden which was done by SGI in Åre in 2003.
Security engineering: Phisical security measures for high-risk personnel
Cice, Jelena S.; Andrejic?, Marko D.; Dragovic?, Nebojs?a K.
The design of physical security measures is a specialized technical area that does not fall in the normal skill record and resume of commanders, architects, engineers, and project managers. This document provides guidance to those parties tasked with implementing existing and emerging physical protection system requirements: - Creation of a single-source reference for the design and construction of physical security measures for high-risk personnel (HRP). - Promulgation of multi-...
Measuring the risk of an Iranian banking system using Value at Risk (VaR Model
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Sudabeh Morshedian Rafiee
Full Text Available Measuring risk of financial institutes and banks plays an important role on managing them. Recent financial turmoil in United States banking system has motivated banking industry to monitor risk factors more closely. In this paper, we present an empirical study to measure the risk of some private banks in Iran called Bank Mellat using Value at Risk (VaR method. The proposed study collects the necessary information for the fiscal year of 2010 and analyses them using regression analysis. The study divides the financial data into two groups where the financial data of the first half of year is considered in the first group and the remaining information for the second half of year 2010 is considered in the second group. The implementation of VaR method indicates that financial risks increase during the time horizon. The study also uses linear regression method where independent variable is time, dependent variable is the financial risk, and the results confirm what we have found in the previous part of the survey.
High Spatial Resolution Thermal Remote Sensing of the Urban Heat Island Effect: Assessment of Risks to Human Health and Development of Mitigation Strategies for Sustainable Cities
Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Laymon, Charles A.; Crosson, William; Howell, Burgess F.; Gillani, Noor V.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)
The growth of cities, both in population and in areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities. One of the more egregious side effects of urbanization is the deterioration in air quality as a result of increased vehicular traffic, industrialization and related activities. In the United States alone, under the more stringent air quality guidelines established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1997, nearly 300 counties in 34 states will not meet the new air quality standards for ground level ozone. The mitigation of one the physical/environmental characteristics of urbanization known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect, is now being looked at more closely as a possible way to bring down ground level ozone levels in cities and assist states in improving air quality. The UHI results from the replacement of "natural" land covers (e.g., trees, grass) with urban land surface types, such as pavement and buildings. Heat stored in these surfaces is released into the air and results in a "dome" of elevated air temperatures that presides over cities. The effect of this dome of elevated air temperatures is known as the UHI, which is most prevalent about 2-3 hours after sunset on days with intense solar radiation and calm winds. Given the local and regional impacts of the UHI, there are significant potential affects on human health, particularly as related to heat stress and ozone on body temperature regulation and on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. In this study we are using airborne and satellite remote sensing data to analyze how differences in the urban landscape influence or drive the development of the UHI over four U.S. cities. Additionally, we are assessing what the potential impact is on risks to human health, and developing mitigation strategies to make urban areas more environmentally sustainable.
Remote Sensing of the Urban Heat Island Effect: Assessment of Risks to Human Health and Development of Mitigation Strategies for Sustainable Cities
Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Laymon, Charles A.; Crosson, William; Howell, Burgess F.; Gillani, Noor V.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)
The growth of cities, both in population and in areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities. One of the more egregious side effects of urbanization is the deterioration in air quality as a result of increased vehicular traffic, industrialization and related activities. In the United States alone, under the more stringent air quality guidelines established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1997, nearly 300 counties in 34 states will not meet the new air quality standards for ground level ozone. The mitigation of one the physical/environmental characteristics of urbanization known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect, is now being looked at more closely as a possible way to bring down ground level ozone levels in cities and assist states in improving air quality. The UHI results from the replacement of "natural" land covers (e.g., trees, grass) with urban land surface types, such as pavement and buildings. Heat stored in these surfaces is released into the air and results in a "dome" of elevated air temperatures that presides over cities. The effect of this dome of elevated air temperatures is known as the UHI, which is most prevalent about 2-3 hours after sunset on days with intense solar radiation and calm winds. Given the local and regional impacts of the UHI, there are significant potential affects on human health, particularly as related to heat stress and ozone on body temperature regulation and on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. In this study we are using airborne and satellite remote sensing data to analyze how differences in the urban landscape influence or drive the development of the UHI over four U.S. cities. Additionally, we are assessing what the potential impact is on risks to human health, and developing mitigation strategies to make urban areas more environmentally sustainable.
Address to the international workshop on greenhouse gas mitigation, technologies and measures
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kant, A.
The Netherlands has a long history in combatting natural forces for it`s mere survival and even creation. Around half of the country was not Yet existent around 2000 years ago: it was still below sea level that time. Building dikes and the discovery of eolic energy applied in windmills, allowing to pump water from one side of the dike to the other, are technologies that gradually shaped the country into its current form, a process that continues to materialize till the present day. Water has not always been an enemy of the country. In the Hundred Year War with Spain, during which the country was occupied territory for most of the time, the water was used to drive the Spanish armies from the country. As large parts are well below sea level breaking the dikes resulted in flooding the country which made the armoury of the Spanish army useless. In this way they had to give up the siege of several major Dutch cities that time. These events marked the gradual liberation of the Dutch territory. Consequently, in the discussion on adaption and prevention of the greenhouse effect the Netherlands has a clear stand. The greenhouse effect will occur anyway, even if countries deploy all possible counter measures at once. So their aim is to prevent the occurrence of the greenhouse effect to the highest extent possible, and to protect the most vulnerable areas meanwhile, especially the coastal zones. In order to reach these goals the Dutch government has established a Joint Implementation Experimental Programme in accordance with the provisions made by the Conference of Parties in Berlin (1995).
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Valeria CAVIEZEL
Full Text Available In this paper we propose an evaluation of investors' risk profiles such as to meet the minimal requirements that Italian financial institutions must satisfy by law (d. lgs. 164, 2007. Thus we investigate all aspects specific to so-called risk profiles: an investor's knowledge and his financial experience (concerning financial instruments and their use; financial objectives, a personal predisposition to risk /earn and the temporal horizon. The methodology used in financial literature with regard to risk profiles is essentially based on simplistic statistical analyses that often fail to consider possible psychological aspects. In order to account for investor preferences and psychological attitudes, we suggest to use an item response theory model. We first assume a unidimensional model, belonging to the family of Rasch models and then, as an alternative approach, a Generalized Multidimensional Rasch model. In particular, the objective is to assess the value of a questionnaire whose items describe different characteristics of the main latent variable risk profile. Under the assumption of a multidimensional measurement model, given the multivariate position of each investor with respect to identified latent traits we can represent his position with respect to possible investments proposed by a bank and we can identify different situations that respect the investor's risk profile and best characterize typical investor choices.
Short and long term efficiencies of debris risk reduction measures: Application to a European LEO mission
Lang, T.; Kervarc, R.; Bertrand, S.; Carle, P.; Donath, T.; Destefanis, R.; Grassi, L.; Tiboldo, F.; Schäfer, F.; Kempf, S.; Gelhaus, J.
Recent numerical studies indicate that the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment has reached a point such that even if no further space launches were conducted, the Earth satellite population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years or so. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris (Liou and Johnson, 2008). Measures to be enforced play thus a major role to preserve an acceptable space mission risk and ensure sustainable space activities. The identification of such measures and the quantification of their efficiency over time for LEO missions is of prime concern in the decision-making process, as it has been investigated for the last few decades by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). This paper addresses the final results of a generic methodology and the characteristics of a tool developed to assess the efficiency of the risk reduction measures identified for the Sentinel-1 (S1) mission. This work is performed as part of the 34-month P2-ROTECT project (Prediction, Protection & Reduction of OrbiTal Exposure to Collision Threats), funded by the European Union within the Seventh Framework Programme. Three ways of risk reduction have been investigated, both in short and long-term, namely: better satellite protection, better conjunction prediction, and cleaner environment. According to our assumptions, the S1 mission vulnerability evaluations in the long term (from 2093 to 2100) show that full compliance to the mitigation measures leads to a situation twice safer than that induced by an active debris removal of 5 objects per year in a MASTER2009 Business-As-Usual context. Because these measures have visible risk reduction effects in the long term, complementary measures with short response time are also studied. In the short term (from 2013 to 2020), a better prediction of the conjunctions is more efficient than protecting the satellite S1 itself. By combining a better prediction with an enhanced satellite protection the S1 is estimated to extend its extra mission lifetime by 4% with respect to its nominal lifetime (7.25 years).
Approving the ISDWIR Method of Risk Measurement in Making Risk Management Decision || Aprobación del método de medición del riesgo SIIPDR en el manejo de asunción de riesgos
Strelnik, Mikhail
This paper is devoted to risk management and risk measurement methods. The author considers methods of risk measurement and proposes the Integral Sum of Diff erential Weighted Indexes of Risks (or ISDWIR) method of risk measurement. The method is based on dynamic enterprise risk matrices. The matrix describes the changes of corporate risk values over the time. The method assists to choose risk management decision having good e ffects on corporate risk values. The ISDWIR method is also c...
VAR Methodology Used for Exchange Risk Measurement and Prevention
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Florentina Balu
Full Text Available In this article we discuss one of the modern risk measuring techniques Value-at-Risk (VaR. Currently central banks in major money centers, under the auspices of the BIS Basle Committee, adopt the VaR system to evaluate the market risk of their supervised banks. Banks regulators ask all commercial banks to report VaRs with their internal models. Value at risk (VaR is a powerful tool for assessing market risk, but it also imposes a challenge. Its power is its generality. Unlike market risk metrics such as the Greeks, duration and convexity, or beta, which are applicable to only certain asset categories or certain sources of market risk, VaR is general. It is based on the probability distribution for a portfolio's market value. Value at Risk (VAR calculates the maximum loss expected (or worst case scenario on an investment, over a given time period and given a specified degree of confidence. There are three methods by which VaR can be calculated: the historical simulation, the variance-covariance method and the Monte Carlo simulation. The variance-covariance method is easiest because you need to estimate only two factors: average return and standard deviation. However, it assumes returns are well-behaved according to the symmetrical normal curve and that historical patterns will repeat into the future. The historical simulation improves on the accuracy of the VAR calculation, but requires more computational data; it also assumes that "past is prologue". The Monte Carlo simulation is complex, but has the advantage of allowing users to tailor ideas about future patterns that depart from historical patterns.
Riscos e controles internos: uma metodologia de mensuração dos níveis de controle de riscos empresariais Internal risks and controls: a methodology to measure business risk control levels
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Wanderlei de Lima De Paulo
Full Text Available Este artigo apresenta uma metodologia de mensuração do nível de controle de riscos inerentes aos processos de qualquer entidade, a partir da construção de um índice de desempenho definido em função da capacidade dos controles mitigarem os riscos e da eficácia dos controles implantados. O modelo possibilita ao gestor de riscos identificar para quais riscos são necessárias ações de melhoria de controle, quais possuem níveis de controles adequados e quais controles em excesso, contribuindo, assim, para a otimização da aplicação dos recursos disponíveis para a gestão de riscos e controles internos nas empresas. A metodologia foi aplicada a um estudo de caso e mostrou-se satisfatória do ponto de vista de avaliação e identificação dos níveis de controle.This paper presents a control measurement methodology applied in the processes performed by any entity. The methodology is derived from the analysis of the mitigation capabilities of the controls currently in use by the entity. The method enables risk managers to identify which risks require urgent actions to improve the control levels, which risks are already adequately controlled and which ones are in a situation of excessive control. This kind of information can play an important role to improve the application of available internal risk and control management resources in companies. The methodology was applied to a case study and revealed to be a satisfactory tool to assess and identify control levels.
The proper use of the risk measures in the Portfolio Theory
Ortobelli Lozza, Sergio; Rachev, Svetlozar; Stoyanov, Stoyan; Fabozzi, Frank; Biglova, Almira
This paper discusses and analyzes risk measure properties in order to understand how a risk measure has to be used to optimize the investor's portfolio choices. In particular, we distinguish between two admissible classes of risk measures proposed in portfolio literature: safety risk measures and dispersion measures. We study and describe how the risk could depend on other distributional parameters. Then, we examine and discuss the differences between statistical parametric models and linea...
44 CFR 201.4 - Standard State Mitigation Plans.
...activities proposed in the strategy portion of the mitigation...mitigation measures under the strategy, and to prioritize jurisdictions...for receiving technical and financial support in developing more...areas. (3) A Mitigation Strategy that provides the...
An Assessment of Nigerian Stakeholders' the Perception of Environmental Offset as Mitigation Measures and Its' Implication for Sustainable Industrial Development in Nigeria
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P.C. Mmom
Full Text Available An important tool for sustainable development in any country is Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA, and an important component of EIA is impact mitigation. In most cases, certain unwanted impacts of development projects are left without mitigation thereby reducing the gains of such developments. Thus, emerging in current literature is the concept of Environmental offset which provides a leeway for residual impacts of development projects. This study therefore assesses the perception and level of application of the environmental offset strategy by EIA Practitioners and other stakeholders in the mitigation of negative environmental impacts of developments in the Niger Delta, Nigeria as that would have significant implication for sustainable development efforts in Nigeria. The study found out that there is negative perception among the host communities about the suitability of offset as mitigation measure. Even though the EIA practitioners considers Environmental offset as a viable option, its adoption has been marred by the misgiving of the local people. This misgiving could be attributed to the long period of neglect and abandonment which has led to abject poverty in the region and loss of confidence in any institutional frameworks. Thus, this study concludes that the drive towards sustainable Development in Nigeria would remain a mirage unless the local people are properly integrated in the scheme of things.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The action limit for indoor radon concentration in Finnish dwellings is 400 Bq/m3 which is exceeded in 50.000 dwellings. In these dwellings indoor radon mitigation is needed. The most important reason for high concentration is the soil air with high radon concentrations that flows into living spaces through openings and gaps in the building foundation. Slab on-ground is the most prevalent type of foundation in Finnish single family houses. Without preventive measures, this type of foundation promotes the flow of radon-bearing soil air into living spaces. In the second popular foundation type, hill-side houses, the flow of soil air through the walls backing soil still increases radon leakages. The key aim of indoor radon mitigation is to prevent or decrease the harmful flows of radon-bearing soil air into dwellings. This guide gives the basic information on Finnish regulations on indoor radon, leakage routes, effect of air exchange and underpressure as well as pre-mitigation studies of houses. The results on the efficiency of various mitigation methods are based on a questionnaire study in 400 Finnish dwellings and on-site studies in numerous houses. In the case of sub-slab-suction the Finnish guide published by the Ministry of Environment has also been utilized. Best mitigation efficiency has been achieved using sub-slab-suction and radon well. Typical reduction factors for both methods are 70-90%, and the best results are above 95%. Sub-slab-suction can belts are above 95%. Sub-slab-suction can be implemented through both floor slab and foundation wall. An exhaust fan coupled to suction pit and exhaust piping creates underpressure and ventilation beneath the slab. In case of a radon well an exhaust fan sucks air from the soil and ventilates the soil air volume through a well construction placed outside the house. The depth of a radon well is 3-5 metres. A single radon well can reduce radon concentration in many dwellings at the distance up to 20-30 metres. Mitigation work based on ventilation aims at increasing the air exchange or reduction of the underpressure or both. Typical reduction factors are 10-40%. The reduction factors exceed 50% only in rare cases when the initial air exchange has been low or the underpressure level has been high. Sealing of entry routes aims at reduction of leakage flow of radon-bearing soil air into living spaces. Typical reduction factors with this method are 10-50%. Both ventilation-based measures and sealing work can also be used for improvement of the efficiency of sub-slab-suction or radon well. In radon mitigation of apartments in the bottom floor with floor slab in ground contact, high underpressure levels increase indoor radon concentration and, in addition reduce the efficiency of sub-slab-suction or radon well. In this case the mitigation should be enhanced through installation of fresh air vents. Similarly, sealing may be needed to improve the efficiency. The efficiency of mitigation using only sealing measures has exceeded 50% only in rare cases. The guide gives also a brief overview on radon mitigation at workplaces and in big buildings and on radon prevention in new buildings. The reference limit for design and construction of new buildings is 200 Bq/m3. The number of houses exceeding this limit is 200.000 in Finland. Preventive measures should be taken in all buildings in the whole country in order to avoid new dwellings that need mitigation. This guide presents many practical examples on mitigation work, and it is intended for the use of both construction companies and do-it-yourself mitigators. (orig.)
The German contribution to the global forest policy. Analysis and evaluation of the engagement for biodiversity conservation and mitigation measures climatic change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The booklet on the German contribution to the global forest policy covers with analysis and evaluation of the engagement for biodiversity conservation and mitigation measures climatic change. The analysis is based on expert interviews; the theoretical background is the conception on society by Niklas Lehmann. The evaluation includes the issues of allocation of public goods, the improvement of public participation, and improvement of financing resources.
Minimising Mortality in Endangered Raptors Due to Power Lines: The Importance of Spatial Aggregation to Optimize the Application of Mitigation Measures
Guil, Francisco; Fernández-Olalla, Mariana; Moreno-Opo, Rubén; Mosqueda, Ignacio; Gómez, María Elena; Aranda, Antonio; Arredondo, Ángel; Guzmán, José; Oria, Javier; González, Luis Mariano; Margalida, Antoni
Electrocution by power lines is one of the main causes of non-natural mortality in birds of prey. In an area in central Spain, we surveyed 6304 pylons from 333 power lines to determine electrocution rates, environmental and design factors that may influence electrocution and the efficacy of mitigation measures used to minimise electrocution cases. A total of 952 electrocuted raptors, representing 14 different species, were observed. Electrocuted raptors were concentrated in certain areas and ...
Measuring risk of crude oil at extreme quantiles
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Saša Žikovi?
Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of VaR models at measuring risk for WTI oil one-month futures returns. Risk models, ranging from industry standards such as RiskMetrics and historical simulation to conditional extreme value model, are used to calculate commodity market risk at extreme quantiles: 0.95, 0.99, 0.995 and 0.999 for both long and short trading positions. Our results show that out of the tested fat tailed distributions, generalised Pareto distribution provides the best fit to both tails of oil returns although tails differ significantly, with the right tail having a higher tail index, indicative of more extreme events. The main conclusion is that, in the analysed period, only extreme value theory based models provide a reasonable degree of safety while widespread VaR models do not provide adequate risk coverage and their performance is especially weak for short position in oil.
Interest rate risk measurement in Brazilian sovereign markets
Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)
Caio Ibsen Rodrigues de, Almeida; Antonio Marcos, Duarte Júnior; Cristiano Augusto Coelho, Fernandes.
Full Text Available Os mercados emergentes de renda fixa são alternativas interessantes para investimentos. Devido ao elevado nível de incerteza existente em tais mercados, a mensuração dos riscos de mercado de uma carteira de investimentos é fundamental para que se evite um nível elevado de perdas. Uma das medidas de [...] risco de mercado mais utilizadas é o Value at Risk, baseado na distribuição de probabilidades de perdas-ganhos da carteira sob análise. A estimação desta distribuição requer, no entanto, a estimação prévia da distribuição de pro-babilidades das variações da estrutura a termo da taxa de juros. Uma possibilidade interessante para a estimação de tal distribuição é efetuar uma decomposição da função de spread da estrutura a termo em uma combinação linear de Polinômios de Legendre. Exemplos numéricos do mercado internacional de títulos soberanos brasileiros são apresentados para ilustrar o uso prático desta nova metodologia. Abstract in english Fixed income emerging markets are an interesting investment alternative. Measuring market risks is mandatory in order to avoid unexpected huge losses. The most used market risk measure is the Value at Risk, based on the profit-loss probability distribution of the portfolio under consideration. Estim [...] ating this probability distribution requires the prior estimation of the probability distribution of term structures of interest rates. An interesting possibility is to estimate term structures using a decomposition of the spread function into a linear combination of Legendre polynomials. Numerical examples from the Brazilian sovereign fixed income international market illustrate the practical use of the methodology.
Estimating financial risk measures for futures positions : a non-parametric approach
Cotter, JOhn; DOWD, KEVIN
This paper presents non-parametric estimates of spectral risk measures applied to long and short positions in 5 prominent equity futures contracts. It also compares these to estimates of two popular alternative measures, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). The spectral risk measures are conditioned on the coefficient of absolute risk aversion, and the latter two are conditioned on the confidence level. Our findings indicate that all risk measures increase dr...
Risk Measures in Optimization Problems via Empirical Estimates.
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Ka?ková, Vlasta
Ro?. 7, ?. 3 (2013), s. 162-177. ISSN 0323-066X R&D Projects: GA ?R GAP402/10/0956; GA ?R GAP402/11/0150; GA ?R GAP402/10/1610 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : static stochastic optimization problems * risk measures * empirical distribution function Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/kankova-0423826.pdf
Chain Risk Model for quantifying cost effectiveness of phytosanitary measures
Benninga, J.; Hennen, W. H. G. J.; Schans, J.
A Chain Risk Model (CRM) was developed for a cost effective assessment of phytosanitary measures. The CRM model can be applied to phytosanitary assessments of all agricultural product chains. In CRM, stages are connected by product volume flows with which pest infections can be spread from one stage to another. The arrangement of these stages can be varied. Experience with CRM was acquired through two cases: Clavibacter in Tomatoes and PSTVd (Potato Spindle Tuber Viroid) in potatoes. Employee...
Reportable Creation: value, performance and risk measurement in financial reporting
Jager, N. G.
Reporting on value or reporting value-relevant information unavoidably implies that estimates of future cash flows should be made. Consequently, uncertainty becomes an important factor in (external) financial reporting. For a long time, uncertainty was dealt with by substituting relevant but uncertain recognition and measurement with less relevant but more certain principles. In the past few years, fair value becomes more and more a leading principle in financial reporting and risk disclosure...
Irradiation embrittlement mitigation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mitigation methods for reducing the irradiation damage on pressure vessel materials are reviewed: load leakage loading schemes are commonly used in PWRs to mitigate reactor pressure vessel embrittlement; dummy assemblies have been applied in WWER 440-type and in some old western power plants, when exceptional fast embrittlement has been encountered; shielding of the pressure vessel has been developed, but is not in common use; pre-stressing the pressure vessel has been proposed for preventing PTS failures, but its applicability is not yet demonstrated. The large number of successful annealing treatments performed in WWER 440 type reactors as well as research on the effects of annealing treatments suggest applications for western PWRs. The emergency core cooling systems have been modified in WWER 440-type reactors in connection with other mitigation measures. (authors). 37 refs., 18 figs., 2 tabs
Nuclear Proliferation Risk Mitigation Approaches and Impacts in the Recycle of Used Nuclear Fuel in the USA
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
EnergySolutions and its team partners, which include the UK National Nuclear Laboratory (NNL), are one of four industry teams to have received an award from the US Department of Energy to carry out design studies in support of the US Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP). This team has developed a detailed scenario model for a future US nuclear fuel cycle based on a closed used nuclear fuel recycle as an alternative to the current once-though-and-store system. This scenario enables the uranium and plutonium in Light Water Reactor (LWR) used fuel from the current reactor fleet, and from a fleet of replacement LWRs, to be recycled as both Uranium Oxide and Mixed Oxide (MOX) fuel using reprocessing plants that conform to the requirements of GNEP. There is also a provision for 'burning' in thermal reactors certain long-lived transuranics (Np, Am, Cm) formed into targets. The residual fission product waste, without these long-term heat emitters, will be vitrified and consigned to the US National Geologic repository. Later in the scenario a fleet of Advanced Recycle Reactors (ARR), based on sodium cooled fast reactor technology, are introduced to enable full transmutation of all transuranics and thus attain the GNEP sustainability goal. The recycle scenario avoids the need for the Yucca Mountain repository to receive unprocessed used nuclear fuel and is effective at prolonging its lifetime and delaying the need for a second repository. This paper explains the process by itory. This paper explains the process by which EnergySolutions selected the U-Pu and U-Pu-Np MOX products and the technological requirements for the recycle plants and describes materials flow analysis that has been carried for the US nuclear fuel cycle scenario using NNL's ORION scenario modelling program. One of the prime requisites of GNEP is to ensure that the risk of proliferation is minimized and the paper describes NNL's approach to objectively assessing the proliferation risk of the scenario relative to that of a conventional recycle scheme. (authors)
Importance measures in reliability, risk, and optimization principles and applications
Kuo, Way
This unique treatment systematically interprets a spectrum of importance measures to provide a comprehensive overview of their applications in the areas of reliability, network, risk, mathematical programming, and optimization. Investigating the precise relationships among various importance measures, it describes how they are modelled and combined with other design tools to allow users to solve readily many real-world, large-scale decision-making problems. Presenting the state-of-the-art in network analysis, multistate systems, and application in modern systems, this book offers a c
The report gives results of follow-up tests in 38 difficult- to-mitigate Pennsylvania houses where indoor radon reduction systems had been installed 2 to 4 years earlier. bjectives were to assess system durability, methods for improving performance, and methods for reducing insta...
Optimisation and Implementation of the R2E Shielding and Relocation Mitigation Measures at the LHC during the LS1
Perrot, A L; Barberan Marin, M; Brugger, M; Corso, J P; Foraz, K; Jeckel, M; Lazzaroni, M; Lefort, B; Mikulec, B; Muttoni, Y
In the framework of the Radiation to Electronics (R2E) project, important mitigation actions are being implemented in the LHC during the first Long Shutdown (LS1) to reduce the Single Event Error (SEE) occurrence in standard electronics present in much of the equipment installed in the LHC underground areas. Recent simulations have motivated additional actions to be performed in Point 4, in addition to those already scheduled in Points 1, 5, 7 and 8. This paper presents the organisation process carried out during LS1 to optimise the implementation of the R2E mitigation activities. It reports the challenges linked to civil engineering and to safe room relocation in Points 5 and 7. It highlights the reactivity needed to face the new mitigation requirements to be implemented in Point 4 before the end of LS1. It presents the advancement status of the R2E mitigation activities in the different LHC points with the main concerns and impact with the overall LHC LS1 planning.
Measuring Credit Risk of Bank Customers Using Artificial Neural Network
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohsen Nazari
Full Text Available In many studies, the relationship between development of financial markets and economic growth has been proved. Credit risk is one of problems which banks are faced with it while doing their tasks. Credit risk means the probability of non-repayment of bank financial facilities granted to investors. If the credit risk decreases, banks will be more successful in performing their duties and have greater effect on economic growth of the country. Credit rating of customers and identifying good and bad customers, help banks lend to their good payers and hereby, they reduce probability of non-repayment. This paper aims to identify classification criteria for good customers and bad customers in Iranian banks. This study can classified in applied studies group and the research strategy is descriptive. Artificial neural network technique is used for financial facilities applicants' credit risk measurement and the calculations have been done by using SPSS and MATLAB software. Number of samples was 497 and 18 variables were used to identify good customers from bad customers. The results showed that, individual loan frequency and amount of loan had most important effect and also status of customer's bank account, history of customer relationship with bank and received services had least important effect in identifying classification criteria of good and bad customers. The major contribution of this paper is specifying the most important determinants for rating of customers in Iran's banking sector.
Evaluation of buffer zone effectiveness in mitigating the risks associated with agricultural runoff in Prince Edward Island.
Dunn, A M; Julien, G; Ernst, W R; Cook, A; Doe, K G; Jackman, P M
To minimize the risk posed by runoff from row crops, Prince Edward Island introduced buffer legislation in 2000. The legislation mandates 10-m and 20-m buffers, respectively, for moderate sloped (i.e. 5%) agricultural fields that border streams. Since 2001, Environment Canada has been evaluating the effectiveness of various buffer widths on operational farms in reducing toxicity and contaminant concentrations in runoff. Sample collectors, placed in 44 fields at the field edge (0m), 10m and at distances out to 30m, collected overland flow following rainfall-induced runoff events. Samples were collected within 24 hours of an event and analysed for seven pesticides (endosulfan, chlorothalonil, carbofuran, linuron, metribuzin, metalaxyl, mancozeb), water quality parameters and Daphnia magna toxicity. The 10-m buffer required for moderate sloped fields was effective at reducing contaminant concentrations but not always to less than lethal concentrations to Daphnia magna. Limited data beyond 10m for fields of both slope types precluded making recommendations on a suitable buffer width for shallow sloped fields and evaluating the effectiveness of 20-m buffers for steep sloped fields. When paired data were combined and statistically tested for all fields, the studied pesticides underwent a 52-98% and 68-100% reduction in aqueous and particulate concentrations within 10m and 30m, respectively. In addition, by 10m, soluble phosphorus, nitrate-nitrogen and total suspended solids were reduced by 34%, 38% and 64%, respectively. Results suggest buffer zones on operational farms are capable of achieving contaminant reductions comparable to those reported for controlled experiments. Inconsistent siting of sample collectors beyond 10m limited the evaluation of the effects of field slope and buffer width on buffer effectiveness on working farms. Future studies on buffer efficiency on operational farms should focus on building the data set beyond 10m and evaluating load reductions. PMID:21163513
Biological invasions: deriving the regions at risk from partial measurements
Cristofol, Michel
We consider the problem of forecasting the regions at higher risk for newly introduced invasive species. Favourable and unfavourable regions may indeed not be known a priori, especially for exotic species whose hosts in native range and newly-colonised areas can be different. Assuming that the species is modelled by a logistic-like reaction-diffusion equation, we prove that the spatial arrangement of the favourable and unfavourable regions can theoretically be determined using only partial measurements of the population density: 1) a local "spatio-temporal" measurement, during a short time period and, 2) a "spatial" measurement in the whole region susceptible to colonisation. We then present a stochastic algorithm which is proved analytically, and then on several numerical examples, to be effective in deriving these regions.
Flow processes and pressure evolution in aquifers during the injection of supercritical CO2 as a greenhouse gas mitigation measure
Chadwick, R. A.; Noy, D. J.; Holloway, S.
Regional saline aquifers offer the greatest potential for very large-scale underground CO2 storage as a means of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Their dynamic storage capacity, in terms of induced increases in formation pressure, will limit the rate at which CO2 can be injected and may ultimately limit the amount of CO2 that can be stored. Generic flow models were generated to examine the effects on pressure evolution of various reservoir parameters (dimensions, permeability, porosity, p...
Mitigation strategies for greenhouse gas emissions from animal production systems: synergy between measuring and modelling at different scales
Groenigen, J. W.; Schils, R. L. M.; Velthof, G. L.; Kuikman, P. J.; Oudendag, D. A.; Oenema, O.
Animal production systems are large and complex sources of greenhouse gases (GHG), especially nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). Emissions from these systems are expected to rise over the coming decades due to the increasing global population and shifting diets, unless appropriate mitigation strategies are implemented. In this paper, we argue that the main constraints for such implementation are: (i) the complex and often poorly understood controls of GHG sources in animal production syst...
Real-Time Earthquake Risk Mitigation Of Infrastructures Using Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response Network
Zulfikar, Can; Pinar, Ali; Tunc, Suleyman; Erdik, Mustafa
The Istanbul EEW network consisting of 10 inland and 5 OBS strong motion stations located close to the Main Marmara Fault zone is operated by KOERI. Data transmission between the remote stations and the base station at KOERI is provided both with satellite and fiber optic cable systems. The continuous on-line data from these stations is used to provide real time warning for emerging potentially disastrous earthquakes. The data transmission time from the remote stations to the KOERI data center is a few milliseconds through fiber optic lines and less than a second via satellites. The early warning signal (consisting three alarm levels) is communicated to the appropriate servo shut-down systems of the receipent facilities, that automatically decide proper action based on the alarm level. Istanbul Gas Distribution Corporation (IGDAS) is one of the end users of the EEW signal. IGDAS, the primary natural gas provider in Istanbul, operates an extensive system 9,867 km of gas lines with 550 district regulators and 474,000 service boxes. State of-the-art protection systems automatically cut natural gas flow when breaks in the pipelines are detected. Since 2005, buildings in Istanbul using natural gas are required to install seismometers that automatically cut natural gas flow when certain thresholds are exceeded. IGDAS uses a sophisticated SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) system to monitor the state-of-health of its pipeline network. This system provides real-time information about quantities related to pipeline monitoring, including input-output pressure, drawing information, positions of station and RTU (remote terminal unit) gates, slum shut mechanism status at 581 district regulator sites. The SCADA system of IGDA? receives the EEW signal from KOERI and decide the proper actions according to the previously specified ground acceleration levels. Presently, KOERI sends EEW signal to the SCADA system of IGDAS Natural Gas Network of Istanbul. The EEW signal of KOERI is also transmitted to the serve shut down system of the Marmaray Rail Tube Tunnel and Commuter Rail Mass Transit System in Istanbul. The Marmaray system includes an undersea railway tunnel under the Bosphorus Strait. Several strong motion instruments are installed within the tunnel for taking measurements against strong ground shaking and early warning purposes. This system is integrated with the KOERI EEW System. KOERI sends the EEW signal to the command center of Marmaray. Having received the signal, the command center put into action the previously defined measurements. For example, the trains within the tunnel will be stopped at the nearest station, no access to the tunnel will be allowed to the trains approaching the tunnel, water protective caps will be closed to protect flood closing the connection between the onshore and offshore tunnels.
Time consistency and moving horizons for risk measures
Cohen, Samuel N
Decision making in the presence of randomness is an important problem, particularly in finance. Often, decision makers base their choices on the values of `risk measures' or `nonlinear expectations'; it is important to understand how these decisions evolve through time. In this paper, we consider how these decisions are affected by the use of a moving horizon, and the possible inconsistencies that this creates. By giving a formal treatment of time consistency without Bellman's equations, we show that there is a new sense in which these decisions can be seen as consistent.
Multi-scale earthquake hazard and risk in the Chinese mainland and countermeasures for the preparedness, mitigation, and management: an overview
Wu, Z.; Jiang, C.; Ma, T.
Earthquake hazard and risk in the Chinese mainland exhibit multi-scale characteristics. Temporal scales from centuries to months, spatial scales from the whole mainland to specific engineering structures, and energy scales from great disastrous earthquakes to small earthquakes causing social disturbance and economic loss, feature the complexity of earthquake disasters. Coping with such complex challenge, several research and application projects have been undertaken since recent years. Lessons and experiences of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake contributed much to the launching and conducting of these projects. Understandings of the scientific problems and technical approaches taken in the mainstream studies in the Chinese mainland have no significant difference from those in the international scientific communities, albeit using of some of the terminologies have "cultural differences" - for instance, in the China Earthquake Administration (CEA), the terminology "earthquake forecast/prediction (study)" is generally used in a much broader sense, mainly indicating time-dependent seismic hazard at different spatio-temporal scales. Several scientific products have been produced serving the society in different forms. These scientific products have unique academic merits due to the long-term persistence feature and the forward forecast nature, which are all essential for the evaluation of the technical performance and the falsification of the scientific ideas. On the other hand, using the language of the "actor network theory (ANT)" in science studies (or the sociology of science), at present, the hierarchical "actors' network", making the science transformed to the actions of the public and government for the preparedness, mitigation, and management of multi-scale earthquake disasters, is still in need of careful construction and improvement.
Measuring Value at Risk for Mortgage Backed Securities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jakobsen, Svend
This paper investigates the computation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) measures for mortgage backed securities (MBSs) using data for the Danish MBS market. The current RiskMetrics proposal from J.P. Morgan is used as a reference point throughout, but the study diverge somewhat from their proposal, especially with respect to the estimation of zero coupon yield curves as well as in the choice of mapping techniques. The MBS-valuation is done by a model developed in Jakobsen(1992,1994), which includes burn-out effects without the need for Monte Carlo simulation. The mapping of deltaequivalent cash flows uses the mapping technique proposed by Ho(1992). The resulting procedure can be employed even for large portfolios of MBS issues with the use of standard computing equipment. The paper compares the MBS VaR estimates for a daily horizon to actual profits and losses for the period January 1993 to March 1995. The results seem to indicate that our method underestimates the variance of actual returns. However, as discussed in the paper this might be due to the fact that the correlation structure of zero coupon rates was estimated without any a priory restrictions. A study which uses the correlations provided in the RiskMetrics dataset might yield better results.
The Measure and Control of Enterprise Marketing Risk in the E-business Environment
Lingbing Hu; Baoyin Zhang; Yu Wu
In this article, through analyzing the change of enterprise marketing mode and the characters of marketing risk in the e-business environment, we establish the 3D embedded random measure model which suits for the e-business enterprise marketing risk, define the combination rules of the risk index system of this model, establish the theoretical base to measure the marketing risk for e-business enterprises, and analyze the warning and control of enterprise marketing risk under the model.
Measuring and handling risk : How different financial institutions face the same problem
Ro?rden, Sarah; Wille, Kristofer
Title: Measuring and handling risk - How different financial institutions face the same problem Seminar date: 4th of June, 2010 Level: Bachelor thesis in Business Administration, Basic level 300, 15 ECTS Authors: Sarah Rörden and Kristofer Wille Supervisor: Angelina Sundström Subject terms: Risk variables, Risk measurement, Risk management, Modern Portfolio Theory, Diversification, Beta Target group: Everyone who has basic knowledge of financial theories and risk principles but lacks the...
Measurement and Control of Operational Risk of Banking Industry based on Complex Network
Xiaoling Hao; Songqiao Han
Operational risk has been great challenges of commercial banks and financial institutions since losses caused by operational risk have been significantly greater than ever before. In order to control and manage operational risk better?clear awareness of the operational risk conduction mechanism is helpful to further understand the whole dynamic process of the risks affecting the business. Traditional researches focus on the method to measure the risk more accurately, but few studies took in...
Measuring market liquidity risk - which model works best?
Ernst, Cornelia; Stange, Sebastian; Kaserer, Christoph
Market liquidity risk, the difficulty or cost of trading assets in crises, has been recognized as an important factor in risk management. Literature has already proposed several models to include liquidity risk in the standard Value-at-Risk framework. While theoretical comparisons between those models have been conducted, their empirical performance has never been benchmarked. This paper performs comparative back-tests of daily risk forecasts for a large selection of traceable liquidity risk ...
Clarifying socio-economic impacts and mitigation measures related to potential changes in missions at the Rocky Flats Plant. Final report
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Research conducted to clarify the socioeconomic impacts on the Denver-Boulder area of potential changes in missions at the Rocky Flats Plant and the mitigation measures taken to contain these impacts are described. Two primary alternatives have been examined, including the relocation of certain activities associated with radioactive materials, as well as a total phase out of the plant over the next decade. These perspectives include an assessment of alternative uses for Rocky Flats by both governmental agencies and private sector developers. Major findings address location, employment, public involvement, private enterprises, community attitudes, employee relocation; land use; and environment
Measurement and Control of Operational Risk of Banking Industry based on Complex Network
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiaoling Hao
Full Text Available Operational risk has been great challenges of commercial banks and financial institutions since losses caused by operational risk have been significantly greater than ever before. In order to control and manage operational risk better?clear awareness of the operational risk conduction mechanism is helpful to further understand the whole dynamic process of the risks affecting the business. Traditional researches focus on the method to measure the risk more accurately, but few studies took into account the conduction mechanism of operational risk. This paper constructs operational risk network to simulate the contagion process of operational risk and put forward new measurement model based on complex network. First, properties of the operational risk network is analyzed, and risk spreading process in the network is described. Then, a load model is established to explain the conduction mechanism of operational risk factors. Next, a new measurement method of operational risk based on BA model is presented to make Monte Carlo simulation and calculate the amount of operational risk losses in the operational risk network. Also, this model is used to simulate the affecting factors in the operational risk network. The simulation results show that the degree of operational risk network as well as the selection of initial node plays an important role on losses, and thus some control recommendations based on the simulation results is given. Finally, a framework of operational risk management system is designed to apply this research result into practice.
Comprehensive quality assurance study of radon measurements developed under the Air Force Radon Assessment and Mitigation Program (RAMP)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The Air Force Radon Assessment and Mitigation Program (RAMP) is a comprehensive, ongoing program to assess the occurrence, concentration, and potential health hazards of radon at Air Force facilities worldwide. During the current detailed assessment phase of RAMP, several tens of thousands of alpha track detectors have been purchased and deployed for one year in Air Force structures worldwide. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of quality assurance results for RAMP based on analysis of detectors that have been exposed to known laboratory concentrations of radon or have been collocated in Air Force buildings. The purpose of this analysis is to tighten the required 95% structures from unnecessary and costly remediation
Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy
Edwards, Michelle
Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.
Response of current phosphorus mitigation measures across the nutrient transfer continuum in two hydrological contrasting agricultural catchments
McDonald, Noeleen; Shore, Mairead; Mellander, Per-Erik; Shortle, Ger; Jordan, Phil
Effective assessment of National Action Programme (NAP) measures introduced under the EU Nitrates Directive (ND), to manage nutrient use and risk of loss to waters from agriculture, is best achieved when examined across the nutrient transfer continuum at catchment scale. The Irish NAP measures are implemented on a whole-territory basis for both nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), with P being the key trophic pressure. The aim of this research was to observe the efficacy of P regulation measures and P source management across the transfer continuum and resultant water quality status (i.e. source to impact), in two contrasting agricultural catchments over a four year period. The catchments are ca. 11 km2 and are located in the south-east of Ireland. One is well-drained and arable dominated, while the other is mostly poorly-drained and grassland dominated. In 2009 and 2013 soil surveys for plant-available P were carried out (surveys were carried out at four sites within each catchment in May and September across the observed four year period (2009-2013). Importantly, the proportion of farmland with excessive soil P concentrations decreased in both the arable (20% to 11.8%) and grassland catchments (5.9 to 3.6%). However, soil P concentrations also declined critically in both catchments, as proportional areas below the national crop agronomic optimum thresholds (grassland; <5 mg P l-1, arable; <6 mg P l-1) increased from 57% to 68% in the arable catchment and 75% to 87% in the grassland catchment. This decline in plant available P strongly indicates a reduced or sustained level of P inputs in both catchments. Indications of responses to soil P change in the surface waters of these catchments appeared to be highly influenced by their hydrological differences and the impact that annual and inter-annual climate and hydrological processes have on nutrient delivery. In the arable catchment total reactive P (TRP) concentrations in interpreted pathways declined across the quickflow, interflow and shallow groundwater of the slowflow, while TRP concentrations in the deeper groundwater, mostly contributing to baseflow, remained the same. However, the complexity of the flow pathways in the grassland catchment made it difficult to determine any trends in P concentrations as a result of changes in P source pressures. Additionally, although there were some inter annual trends, there was no clear indication of improvement in the ecological quality status in either catchment. Overall, a positive response to NAP measures (high soil P declines) was more clearly observable in the source component of the P transfer continuum for both catchments over the study period. This highlights the careful balance required for consideration between lag-time (policy implementation and water quality response) and agronomic sustainability (soil P fertility) in agricultural catchments.
Framingham risk prediction equations for incidence of cardiovascular disease using detailed measures for smoking
John McNeil; Helen Walls; Anna Peters; Chris Stevenson; Haider Rashid Mannan
Current prediction models for risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence incorporate smoking as a dichotomous yes/no measure. However, the risk of CVD associated with smoking also varies with the intensity and duration of smoking and there is a strong association between time since quitting and the risk of disease onset. This study aims to develop improved risk prediction equations for CVD incidence incorporating intensity and duration of smoking and time since quitting. The risk of devel...
Air cleaning and radon decay product mitigation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
We evaluated air cleaning as a means to mitigate risks arising from exposure to indoor radon progeny in several single-family houses in the northeastern United States, using a new, automated, semi-continuous activity-weighted size distribution measurement system. Measurements included radon concentration, condensation nuclei count, and activity-weighted size distribution of radon decay products. Measurements were made with and without the air cleaning system operating. The influence of particles generated by various sources common to normal indoor activities on radon progeny behavior was evaluated. Aerosols were generated by running water in a shower, burning candles, smoking cigarettes, vacuuming, opening doors, and cooking. Both a filtration unit and an electrostatic precipitator were evaluated. Using a room model, the changes in attachment rates, average attachment diameters, and deposition rates of the ''unattached'' fraction with and without the air cleaning systems were calculated. The air cleaner typically reduced the radon progeny concentrations by 50 to 60%
Outcome measurement in HEDIS: can risk adjustment save the low birth weight measure?
Inkelas, M; Decristofaro, A H; McGlynn, E A; Keeler, E B
OBJECTIVE. To evaluate whether adjusting the Health Plan Employer Data and Information Set (HEDIS) low birth weight (LBW) measure for maternal risk factors is feasible and improves its validity as a quality indicator. DATA SOURCE: The Washington State Birth Event Record Data for calendar years 1989 and 1990, including birth certificate data matched with mothers' and infants' hospital discharge records, with 5,837 records of singlet on infants identified as LBW (< 2,500 g) and a 25 percent sam...
Mitigation Banks and Other Conservation Lands at Risk from Preferential Groundwater Flow and Hydroperiod Alterations by Existing and Proposed Northeast Florida Mines
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Sergio Bernardes
Full Text Available When evaluating applications for proposed projects, agencies in the United States (U.S. must consider mitigation options for the destruction of the aquatic environment such as wetlands, if no practicable alternative to the proposed action exists. Because attempts to create artificial wetlands as replacements for natural wetlands that were destroyed have had little success, particularly in the case of forested wetlands, mitigation options often include mitigation banks and conservation restrictions as permit requirements. In Florida, agencies issuing permits for projects involving groundwater alterations such as withdrawals from wells and mining, do not require an analysis of how on-site and off-site wetlands designated as mitigation, conservation or preservation for destroyed wetlands would be affected by fractures and other karst features that occur throughout the Floridan aquifer system (FAS. This study analyzed the underlying geological conditions in the FAS using lineaments as surface expressions of those conditions, in addition to indicators of preferential groundwater flow in an environmentally sensitive karst area of northeast Florida, including Baker and Clay Counties, where extensive mining has occurred in the recent past and more extensive mining is proposed in the immediate future. Established methods, such as spatial matching of scanned maps and remotely sensed images and control-point identification, were used for georectification of the analog maps. These techniques were applied to surface expressions of underlying fractures that were mapped in the early 1950s and 1970s, prior to extensive groundwater extractions, urbanization and mining in the region. The vegetation changes and reduced groundwater discharges from those alterations reduce the ability to identify fractures from post-development images. Geospatial analyses of lineament distribution revealed that the study area and surrounding counties included a dense network of lineaments, including through existing and proposed mines, mitigation banks and other conservation lands. Excavation, water use and operation of proposed mines associated with those fractures could result in irreversible adverse environmental impacts to those mitigation banks and other conservation lands linked by the network of fractures. To ensure sustainable developments and compliance with mitigation laws in this highly fractured area, adverse impacts to mitigation banks and other conservation lands from groundwater pumping and mining via fractures must be considered.
Measuring injury risk factors: question reliability in a statewide sample
Koziol-McLain, J; Brand, D.; Morgan, D.; Leff, M; Lowenstein, S.
Background—Recently (1996–98), Colorado added 15 questions pertaining to injury related risks and behaviors to the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (BRFSS). Questions addressed bicycle helmet use, traffic crashes, exposure to violence, suicidal behavior, and gun storage.
Risk Measures on $\\mathcal{P}(\\mathbb{R})$ and Ambiguity for the Value At Risk: $\\Lambda V@R$
Frittelli, Marco; Peri, Ilaria
We propose a generalization of the classical notion of the $V@R_{\\lambda}$ that takes into account not only the probability of the losses, but the balance between such probability and the amount of the loss. This is obtained by defining a new class of law invariant risk measures based on an appropriate family of acceptance sets. The $V@R_{\\lambda}$ and other known law invariant risk measures turn out to be special cases of our proposal.
Full structural weld overlay application as a repair or mitigation measure for PWSCC susceptible alloy 82/182 DM welds in PWR plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
In recent years, cracking due to Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking (PWSCC) have been observed in Alloy 82/182 dissimilar metal (DM) welds both in the United States and abroad. These DM welds are used to connect stainless steel piping to low alloy steel or carbon steel components in Pressurizer Water Reactor (PWR) plants. Full Structural weld overlay (FSWOL) was implemented in some cases as a repair technique to mitigate PWSCC at these welds. Such repair technique is an acceptable ASME Code repair method and has already been successfully used to repair Intergranular Stress Corrosion Cracking (IGSCC) at the stainless steel pipe welds in Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) plants in the United States for over twenty years. FSWOL is a repair technique that can be used to reinforce nozzle safe end regions and pipes in PWR plants susceptible to PWSCC with cracks present. Such technique can also be used as a mitigation technique at locations without any cracking but are susceptible to PWSCC. The technique involves the application of a specified thickness and length of PWSCC resistant weld material over the region of interest in a configuration that maintains structural integrity and meets the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Section XI Code margins with cracks present. The reinforcement material forms a structural barrier to PWSCC and produces a compressive residual stress condition at the inner portion of the pipe that mitigates future crack initiation and/or pmitigates future crack initiation and/or propagation due to PWSCC. In addition, full structural weld overlay improves inspectability of the nozzle safe end weld regions and facilitates volumetric examinations by minimizing discontinuities in the nozzle safe end weld regions. Purpose of this paper is to describe the methodology and criteria for applying FSWOL as either a repair or mitigation measure for PWSCC susceptible Alloy 82/182 DM welds in PWR plants. It is planned by KHNP to have the methodology and criteria be implemented for the Pressurizer nozzles of Kori Unit 1. To implement the Kori Unit 1 FSWOL three major tasks have to be performed together to make the project successful in addition to good planning, and training. Three major tasks are: 1) SWOL design and qualification 2) Welding process technique development and qualifications 3) Ultrasonic examination method and qualifications To illustrate these three major tasks Figures or photos of each task are included. Each task and associated Figures and photos will be presented in the conference
Measurement of biofilm thickness. An effective Legionella risk assessment tool
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Foret, Christophe [BKG France, Arnage (France); Martemianov, Serguei [Poitiers Univ. (FR). Lab. of Thermal Study (LET); Moscow Univ. (Russian Federation). Frumkin Inst. of Physical Chemistry and Electrochemistry; Hater, Wolfgang [BK Giulini GmbH, Duesseldorf (Germany); Merlet, Nicole; Chaussec, Guenole; Tribollet, Bernard
The best way to prevent the risk of bacterial growth in water systems is to monitor and control the microorganisms (biofilm) attached to pipe walls. Three years of laboratory research led two Centre National de Recherche Scientifique (French National Center for Scientific Research) teams (UMR 6008 and UPR 15) to develop a tool designed to determine the average biofilm thickness. The average biofilm thickness measurements carried out on pilot plants fed with natural water were sufficiently accurate and sensitive to monitor the formation and development of biofilm in a water system and to determine the efficiency of the applied treatments. The implementation of appropriate treatments (type and dose of the treatment product) leads to a significant reduction in or even complete removal of the porous layer on the material surface. A reduction of the attached biomass, measured by the sensor, is connected to a decrease in the density of the bacterial attached to the material (viable flora in the plate count agar environment). (orig.)
Development of the LERF performance measure for risk informed regulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Severe accident events that could cause a large amount of radiological offsite release would have to involve significant core damage and release to environment. The concept of core damage frequency (CDF) and large early release frequency (LERF) has been considered as a suitable metrics for making risk informed regulatory decisions. However, the terminology of 'larg' and 'early release' which have uncertain concept needs to be defined from the regulatory perspective considering the potential implication of severe accidents. This study includes a new quantitative definition of the LERF in the first place. Additionally it provides a correlated relationship between the safety goal, Quantitative Health Objectives (QHOs), for Individual Early Fatality and a LERF that can be used to estimate the safety goal for a reference nuclear power plant. The relationship is derived from the utilization of the site specific weather and population characteristics for the reference plant. It comes basically from a Level 2 PSA results such as the release category frequencies and source term characteristics. the correlation factor between early fatality and LERF may contribute to make the regulatory decision. The analysis results results are obtained according to the residential distance using the MACCS2 code. This methodology is based on an idea to utilize a value of early fatality. It may provide the reasonable estimates of the individual early fatality and large early lease frequency. Thtality and large early lease frequency. They supply a gap for the existing PSA results which lack in the detailed offsite consequence analysis. And safety goals affect the allowable consequences and their permissible accident frequencies for the accident sequences which must be considered in the design and safety classification of equipment. In this study, safety goals for risk informed regulations are introduced and the definition of the relevant performance measure, LERF, is systematically developed. The developed LERF categories can be used for guiding the selection of events which must be considered in the design and regulations
Survey for the advertising effectiveness measurement of the website 'risk information navigator' and the risk message materials
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Risk communication activities are important for promoting mutual understanding between local communities and the Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (hereinafter referred to as JNC). The Risk Communication Study Team of JNC Tokai Works has started practical studies to promote further mutual understanding with the local communities. Several communication tools such as poster panels, slide materials, videos, website contents and newsletters were developed as part of its risk communication activities. This paper describes the survey of the internet users in prefectures where nuclear power stations are located, for the advertising effectiveness measurement of nuclear risk information provided on the web site 'Risk Information Navigator' (http://ricotti.jnc.go.jp/risknavi/) and the risk message materials jointly produced by Tokai village's people and JNC. (author)
Climate change adaptation strategies and mitigation policies
García Fernández, Cristina
The pace of climate change and the consequent warming of the Earth's surface is increasing vulnerability and decreasing adaptive capacity. Achieving a successful adaptation depends on the development of technology, institutional organization, financing availability and the exchange of information. Populations living in arid and semi-arid zones, low-lying coastal areas, land with water shortages or at risk of overflow or small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Due to increasing population density in sensitive areas, some regions have become more vulnerable to events such as storms, floods and droughts, like the river basins and coastal plains. Human activities have fragmented and increased the vulnerability of ecosystems, which limit both, their natural adaptation and the effectiveness of the measures adopted. Adaptation means to carry out the necessary modifications for society to adapt to new climatic conditions in order to reduce their vulnerability to climate change. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) and to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or face the consequences. Adaptation reduces the adverse impacts of climate change and enhance beneficial impacts, but will not prevent substantial cost that are produced by all damages. The performances require adaptation actions. These are defined and implemented at national, regional or local levels since many of the impacts and vulnerabilities depend on the particular economic, geographic and social circumstances of each country or region. We will present some adaptation strategies at national and local level and revise some cases of its implementation in several vulnerable areas. However, adaptation to climate change must be closely related to mitigation policies because the degree of change planned in different climatic variables is a function of the concentration levels that are achieved by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation and adaptation are therefore complementary actions. In the long term, climate change without mitigation measures will likely exceed the adaptive capacity of natural, managed and human systems. Early adoption of mitigation measures would break the dependence on carbon-intensive infrastructures and reduce adaptation needs to climate change. It also can save on adaptation cost. Therefore mitigation is the key objective of the global warming problem but little is being done in this field. We will present some proposals of "preventive economically efficient" policies at a global and regional level which will constitute the complement to the adaptation aspect.
Association of Cardiovascular Risk Using Nonlinear Heart Rate Variability Measures with the Framingham Risk Score in a Rural Population
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Full Text Available Cardiovascular risk can be calculated using the Framingham cardiovascular disease (CVD risk score and provides a risk stratification from mild to very high CVD risk percentage over 10 years. This equation represents a complex interaction between age, gender, cholesterol status, blood pressure, diabetes status and smoking. Heart rate variability (HRV is a measure of how the autonomic nervous system modulates the heart rate. HRV measures are sensitive to age, gender, disease status such as diabetes and hypertension and processes leading to atherosclerosis. We investigated whether HRV measures are a suitable, simple, noninvasive alternative to differentiate between the four main Framingham associated CVD risk categories. In this study we applied the tone-entropy (T-E algorithm and complex correlation measure (CCM for analysis of heart rate variability obtained from 20 minute ECG recordings and correlated the HRV score with the stratification results using the Framingham risk equation. Both entropy and CCM had significant analysis of variance (ANOVA results (F172, 3 = 9.51; <0.0001. Bonferroni post hoc analysis indicated a significant difference between mild, high and very high cardiac risk groups applying tone-entropy (p<0.01. CCM detected a difference in temporal dynamics of the RR intervals between the mild and very high CVD risk groups (p<0.01. Our results indicate a good agreement between the T-E and CCM algorithm and the Framingham CVD risk score, suggesting that this algorithm may be of use for initial screening of cardiovascular risk as it is noninvasive, economical and easy to use in clinical practice.
International perspectives on mitigating laboratory biorisks.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pinard, William J.; Salazar, Carlos A.
The International Perspectives on Mitigating Laboratory Biorisks workshop, held at the Renaissance Polat Istanbul Hotel in Istanbul, Republic of Turkey, from October 25 to 27, 2010, sought to promote discussion between experts and stakeholders from around the world on issues related to the management of biological risk in laboratories. The event was organized by Sandia National Laboratories International Biological Threat Reduction program, on behalf of the US Department of State Biosecurity Engagement Program and the US Department of Defense Cooperative Biological Engagement Program. The workshop came about as a response to US Under Secretary of State Ellen O. Tauscher's statements in Geneva on December 9, 2009, during the Annual Meeting of the States Parties to the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC). Pursuant to those remarks, the workshop was intended to provide a forum for interested countries to share information on biorisk management training, standards, and needs. Over the course of the meeting's three days, participants discussed diverse topics such as the role of risk assessment in laboratory biorisk manage