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La Birreria is our rooftop restaurant and microbrewery that offers the highest quality craft beer and food under the stars and skyline. Don't worry about the weather: our retractable roof and heaters keep us open in all seasons – rain, shine or snow!
Click here to reserve a table!
In collaboration with Sam Calagione of Dogfish Head, Teo Musso of Baladin, and Leonardo Di Vincenzo of Birra Del Borgo, Eataly's head brewer is brewing unfiltered, unpasteurized, and naturally carbonated cask ales just 30 feet from where you sit, eat, and drink. Each is served through traditional hand pumps at the perfect temperature, so you can enjoy our beers in the most natural and traditional way.
La Birreria's menu conjures the family-style feasts of an Italy influenced by Austria and Germany. The focus on hearty fare feels convivial and comforting (think: deeply flavorful mushroom entrees, beer-braised pork shoulder, housemade sausages, and grilled meats).
Lunch and Dinner Menu
Dessert Menu
Cocktail Menu
11:30 a.m.-11 p.m.
The kitchen closes at 10 p.m.
11:30 a.m.-1 a.m.
The kitchen closes at 12 a.m.
Tel: 212.937.8910
La Birreria is open year-round with a glass-enclosed roof and is the highest brewery in New York. Seated group reservations are available at La Birreria for 11 to 30 guests with a family-style, prix fixe menu. View our group dining options and menu here.
La Birreria is also available for full buyouts for up to 150 seated or 175 standing guests.
For more information on group dining and full buyouts, visit Private Dining or contact us at firstname.lastname@example.com or 212.539.0205.
New York is lucky to be surrounded by a number of craft breweries. We invite you to meet the people behind the beer at our series, "Meet the Brewery." As you get to know each brewery, our bartenders offer small complimentary tastes of the beers on tap, so you can discover new favorites. Our head brewer, Fred Avila, will also be on hand to discuss Eataly's selection of craft beers, which he brewed in our onsite microbrewery.
Dogfish Head Aprihop, American IPA with Apricots, 7%
ABVDogfish Head Namaste Witbier with Orange, Lemongrass, Coriander, 4.8%
ABVDel Borgo Caos, Saison, with Malvasia Grape Must, 7.5% ABV
Black Hog Brewing Easy Rye'Da, Rye IPA, 4.7% ABV
Captain Lawrence Brewing Liquid Gold, Belgian-style Ale, 6.5% ABV
Harvest Moon Cidery Heritage Hops, Hard Cider with NY State Hops, 6.5% ABV
Maine Beer Company Mean Old Tom, American Stout with Vanilla Beans, 6.5% ABV
Oxbow Brewing Farmhouse Pale Ale, Saison, 6.% ABV
Smuttynose Brewing Vunderbar Pilsner, 5.1% ABV
Peroni Nastro Azzurro, Euro Blonde Lager, 5.1% ABV


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The Chinese New Year: Year of the Snake
Chinese New Year slithers in on Sunday, with 2013 marking the Year of the Snake. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 150,000 Long Islanders identify themselves as Chinese, so celebrations here will be in full swing.
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28 LI ZIP codes top most expensive in U.S. How to celebrate Halloween all month long in NYC LI notable deaths Peek inside Long Island's most lavish homes Way to Go kids Halloween 2015 parties on Long Island LI cheer/kicklines' craziest kicks, flips and jumps Meet LI's cheerleading and kickline teams Long Island and New York City's top photos Carle Place vs. West Hempstead Garden City vs. South Side Promotions, new hires and jobs on Long Island

subset: commoncrawl


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LOS ANGELES (AP) - Blake Edwards, the director and writer known for clever dialogue, poignance and occasional belly-laugh sight gags in "Breakfast at Tiffany's," "10" and the "Pink Panther" farces, is dead at age 88.
Edwards died from complications of pneumonia late Wednesday at St. John's Health Center in Santa Monica, said publicist Gene Schwam. Blake's wife, Julie Andrews, and other family members were at his side. He had been hospitalized for about two weeks.
"He was the most unique man I have ever known-and he was my mate," Andrews said in a statement Thursday. "He will be missed beyond words, and will forever be in my heart."
Edwards had knee problems, had undergone unsuccessful procedures and was "pretty much confined to a wheelchair for the last year-and-a-half or two," Schwam said. That may have contributed to his condition, he added.
At the time of his death, Edwards was working on two Broadway musicals, one based on the "Pink Panther" movies. The other, "Big Rosemary," was to be an original comedy set during Prohibition, Schwam said.
"His heart was as big as his talent. He was an Academy Award winner in all respects," said Schwam, who knew him for 40 years.
A third-generation filmmaker, Edwards was praised for evoking classic performances from Jack Lemmon, Audrey Hepburn, Peter Sellers, Dudley Moore, Lee Remick and Andrews, his wife of 42 years.
Actor Robert Wagner credits Edwards with giving him some of the greatest opportunities of his career.
"There won't be anybody passing by like him again. He was a genius," Wagner said Thursday. "Personally, we were so very close friends and he was so kind to me throughout my entire life."
Edwards directed and often wrote a wide variety of movies including "Days of Wine and Roses," a harrowing story of alcoholism; "The Great Race," a comedy-adventure that starred Lemmon, Tony Curtis and Natalie Wood; and "Victor/Victoria," his gender-bender musical comedy with Andrews.
He was also known for an independent spirit that brought clashes with studio bosses. He vented his disdain for the Hollywood system in his 1981 black comedy, "S.O.B."
"I was certainly getting back at some of the producers of my life," he once remarked, "although I was a good deal less scathing than I could have been. The only way I got to make it was because of the huge success of `10,' and even then they tried to sabotage it."
Because many of his films were studded with farcical situations, some reviewers criticized his work.
However, Richard Schickel wrote in Time magazine: "When director Edwards is at his best, there is something bracing, and in these days, unique about his comedy. … He really wants to save the world by showing how stupid some of its creatures can be."
Steve Martin expressed his thoughts on Twitter, writing, "Blake Edwards was one of the people who made me love comedy. Sorry to hear of his passing."


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r-paint and feathers, and nipping little pieces out of my arms and legs. I stood it as long as I could, and then I began to hit out at 'em. All at once one of the creatures commenced flourishing his tomahawk at me, getting nearer and nearer all the time. "I have tried, but I can't get in," he said, grinning horribly, and the voice sounded just like Phil's; "he's locked his door, and he won't even answer me,--he's madder than hornets."
[Illustration: "'WHY, JACK!' SAID NANNIE."]
"I'm sure you can't blame him: what you said was very unkind, Phil; I didn't think it of you!" The voice was certainly Nannie's; and yet there was that horrid old Indian still nipping me.
"I know it, Nan; you needn't rub it in," groaned Phil,--the Indian. "But really, I didn't mean one word of it, and he ought to have known that. Why, Fee's got more brains than the whole crowd of us put together, and if only one of us can go to college, he ought to be that one. I've screwed up my courage, and I'm
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Town Square
Gordon named 'Recycling Legislator of the Year'
Original post made on Aug 15, 2012
Read the full story here Web Link posted Tuesday, August 14, 2012, 11:09 AM
Comments (3)
a resident of Atherton: other
on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:47 pm
Oh, when I read the headline I thought he was being commended for recycling the same moronic ideas of his other fellow Spendocrats and running California into bankruptcy.
a resident of another community
on Aug 17, 2012 at 2:20 pm
There are no words to describe this self promoting, inept and really ambitious and ineffective who is not even liked within his minority community for his politics and past performance as a supervisor.
a resident of another community
on Aug 21, 2012 at 1:37 pm
When I read the headline I was hoping it was the start of a campaign to recycle the assembly seat Mr. Gordon holds. Oh well, wishful thinking.
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Mademoiselle Colette, now open in downtown Menlo Park
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Both are normal lenses. You are looking at 150mm and 180mm equivalents on 4x5 or 45mm and 55mm equivalents on a 35mm camera or full frame DSLR. The 210 you are using would be like the 420 that E. suggests.
Yousuf Karsh used a 14" (360mm) and I read somewhere that Richard Avedon used a 360mm Schneider on his American West portraits. You can check them out if you want examples.
I own a 14" Commercial Ektar but I have also tried a 300mm lens. There isn't a lot of difference in focal length.


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King Just No Flows on the Rodeo Lyrics
Popularity : 11 users have visited this page.
Album: Track 6 on Mystics of the God
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[king just]
Well here I am, the funky man wit the ill manner
Don't spasm, cuz I be y'all bad mamma jamma
I told ya couldn't fuck wit me, nanananana
I turn incredible hulk back into david bammer
I am a slammin this shit just like a human hammer
And rock suits from timbuktu to alabama
Is the matter, and chocolate here comes the sword
Hit us hard, but now we livin large, oh my god
Yo it's on, movin in like desert storm
Droppin bombs, ring the alarm, where's my bong?
Light it up, cuz i'mma smoke shit just like a gemini
For niggas who don't remember, yo mo bee
Make it easy, girls wanna seize me
Believe me, it's the same shit at the 6 g
Harvard tactics, breakin niggas backwards
The zoo stickin niggas like cactus, for practice
These fake rappers, try to chill and make a pill
Knowin they ain't real, knowin they ain't got skills
I'm from the hill, where niggas go to toe to toe
In other words, no flows on the rodeo
[chorus 2x]
Yippeekiyay, yippee yay, yippee yo
Yippeekiyay, yippee yay, yippee yo
Yippeekiyay, yippee yay, yippee yo
Yo, no flows on the rodeo
[king just]
Holy cow, the kangaroo, they let the wildest nigga out the zoo
It's the bird who flew the coup on the first scoop
Who blew the roof? poof, straight into the mystics
Super sadistic, I'm butter like a biscuit
Oh shit kid, watch the sonic boom get boomer
I flip hits and shits, and free my kazoomas
On like pumas, and niggas can't throw me out
Cuz the rhymes I give'll get ya dick hard like pencil stout
Shout, a little bit louder now
Who's that nigga goin, aow, aow
Style, makes me superhyginetic
Fuck athletics, I'm dope and poetic
Forget it, cuz niggas don't want none
Can't get none, probably done before they see the outcome
The drum, is the constant beat in my ear
The warrior, is me, because I have no fear
I sware, to my little seed, take heed
Cuz in this rap shit, i'mma succeed and smoke weed
And get lifted, high as a kite
You can't fuck wit the rhymes I write
So you write, tonight's the night
I'm ready to fight, it's on and it's war
I turn, I shoot, I score
[chorus 2x]
[king just]
I'm like a threat to a needle, make more hits than beatles
And stay sharp like a church steeple
For my people, I gotta put 'em on somehow
Is the faces you meet up, is the ones you meet goin down?
Bow, I'm blowin up spots this year
I don't care, so rollin up the owls in the stairs
Be prepared, for all types of shit like this
Hits after hits, it can only be black fist
Shit, what you thinkin
The reason, I'm the shit is cuz I'm stinkin
Ya niggas is dead like abe lincoln
I'm thinkin, I'm a fuckin master plan
It be the man, that made me the man that I am
God damn, the nigga slams like nba jam
Tryin to battle me, is tryin to drown aquaman
It couldn't happen, I'm still on the staten
Still rappin, still keepin the crowd clappin
I'm blastin, all up in the like a shuttle
Makin other rap squads go in a huddle, leave a puddle
Of blood for my niggas lock down, one love
For you niggas who don't like me, blaow, catch a slug
[chorus 2x]
What, '95
No one survive


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There has been significant media attention given in recent months to the salaries and benefits that government workers receive. These issues certainly merit public discourse, but too often, the focus shifts to an unwarranted judgment on the worth of public employees.
Having worked in government for many years, I'd like to provide my opinion on what I view as an assault on the dedicated work of thousands of public servants. These employees protect us, teach our children and provide services that have a vital impact on our economy and quality of life. My career as a transportation professional has spanned 38 years, and for 27 of those years, I have been very proud to call myself a government employee. Nearly two years ago, I was hired as CEO of the Orange County Transportation Authority. I am honored and privileged to serve the people of Orange County and I am surrounded on a daily basis by 1,600 other OCTA employees who feel very much the same way.Like private sector businesses, our agency has been hit hard by the worst financial crisis this nation has seen since the Great Depression. All too frequently, I have been forced to present to our board of directors very unpleasant options to ensure the agency's effective operation and long-term sustainability. OCTA has resized and reorganized its workforce to match what our residents and voters expect. This government organization will not spend any more tax dollars than it receives. Operating with a business mindset carries with it consequences. Unfortunately, in the last two years, OCTA coach operators, mechanics and administrative employees have joined the staggering number of Americans who are unemployed. Administrative employees are entering their third year with no raises, and we are grappling with rising health care expenses that potentially will cost employees more — the same issues faced by the private sector. In the last year, we have worked cooperatively with our three labor unions representing our coach operators, mechanics and maintenance employees to negotiate three-year contracts that will consider compensation adjustments in the third year and only if the economy improves significantly.
Our employees, like those in the private sector, have sacrificed. They should be applauded because each of them continues to provide excellent public service. The faces of these employees are too often forgotten in the frenzy to feed the beast that is the never-ending news cycle. In the hunt for more viewers, listeners, readers and clickers, it's easy to incite anger by ranking top-paid government employees. I am a strong advocate of open government and have no problem sharing what our employees earn. Letting the public see exactly where all of our tax dollars are being spent is a part of that transparency. OCTA was among the first government agencies in the state to post online salary and benefit information (www.octa.net/righttoknow). However, what is missing in stories that turn salaries into horse races is the lack of discussion regarding the dedication and specialized expertise of public employees. Pointing out who works the most overtime, or which employees are in the $100,000 club, or who will be bringing in the biggest pension when they retire is sure to set the blogosphere afire. However, this does little to effectively further discussion of responsible government. While it is certainly appropriate to expect government to perform well, we also have to accept that we need to pay competitive wages to maintain a competent workforce.For our part, OCTA operates and funds a bus system that served 51 million riders last year and finances and plans Orange County's Metrolink, utilized by four million people annually. We develop and pay for freeway improvements, administer the county's Measure M half-cent sales tax program, provide funding for local street improvements, oversee taxicab permitting, run the Freeway Service Patrol tow trucks and operate the 91 Express Lanes.Through these services, OCTA is an economic engine for Orange County businesses. In 2010, projects totaling more than $525 million went into construction, translating into thousands of local well-paying private-sector jobs in construction, engineering and design. This is in accordance with OCTA's policy to contract out as much engineering and professional services work as possible to private-sector firms.And, overseeing these projects and services are OCTA employees, a collection of dedicated, honest and highly skilled individuals. We are engineers, contractors, financial planners, contract administrators, mechanics, coach operators, communications and information technology professionals.We work every day to make Orange County better for residents, businesses and visitors and ensure it remains a thriving place for our children and grandchildren. We are a government agency that delivers on its promises on schedule and within budget. This can be seen in the completion of the Measure M program and the trust that 70 percent of voters placed in OCTA by renewing the half-cent sales tax for 30 more years. We are government that works.When the compensation discussions occur, what needs to remembered is that public employees are your friends and your neighbors. We coach Little League teams, volunteer for the Red Cross and raise money to fight Alzheimer's. Your tax dollars are our tax dollars, too. I ask that you join me in taking pride in the demonstrated commitment and the hard work performed day in and day out by the men and women who are this local government agency and other public employees like us throughout the nation.
In case you missed it...
Read our METRO blog, "Hide-and-Seek behind bus mirrors and A-pillars" here.
Typically, when riding the rails in the Philadelphia region, Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority customers can purchase daily, weekly or monthly passes — even onboard tickets — for their journeys. But the weekend of Sept. 26 to 27 will be far from a typical weekend in Philadelphia — Pope Francis will be in town, along with an estimated 1.5 to two million people attending public events along the city's Benjamin Franklin Parkway.
Transit authority operators nationwide have been victims of sometimes brutally violent acts, but in Philadelphia, the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority has had a decrease in bus operator assaults by almost 60% since 2011. How did they do that?
The cost of copper was around $2.50 a pound in mid-June. While that might not sound like a lot of money, when you have hundreds of feet of copper wire, you're talking about thousands of dollars or more. Transit systems, which utilize copper in wiring, are the latest target for thieves looking to make some easy cash.
While PTC may have just recently entered the consciousness of the public at-large, it has been an issue for freight and commuter rail systems since Congress passed the Rail Safety Improvement Act (RSIA) (P.L. 110-432) in 2008 following the collision between a Metrolink commuter train and a Union Pacific freight train in Los Angeles. Since that time, rail organizations have been working toward meeting the federally-mandated PTC implementation deadline of December 31, 2015. With less than six months to go, several commuter rail systems have said that, not only will they not meet the deadline, they will need several more years before having full PTC implementation on their trains.
Disruptive technologies and the new era of information sharing are helping to evolve and advance public transportation in our nation's greatest cities. Nearly 300 mayors and government officials convened in San Francisco June 19-22 for the U.S. Conference of Mayors' 83rd Annual Meeting, featuring remarks from President Obama and former U.S. Secretary of State and Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. I was invited to speak in front of these influential government leaders to discuss "Technology and the Transformation of Urban Transportation." This article will give readers an inside look at the conversation.
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MOVIEmeterSEE RANK
Up 56,293 this week
The Affairs of God (2004)
In September of 1 B.C., Joseph returns from a seven month carpenter's tour to find his virgin wife six months pregnant. Blasphemy ensues.
Director:Jay Lee
Writer:Jay Lee
Stars:Carmit Levité, Adam Lamas, Eric Malamud | See full cast and crew »


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To Order by Phone : 1-888-614-WINE
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There's nothing ordinary about this orange! This authetic orange flavored Russian vodka is the perfect marriage of sweet, zesty orange and smooth vodka. Like all Stoli flavors, Stoli Ohranj is made using an infusion process in which all-natural flavors are infused into Stolichnaya vodka before filtration.
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It may not be quite the 8K iMac rumored earlier this summer, but Apple is set to refresh its iMac lineup this quarter with faster processors and improved displays, according to ever-reliable KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.
San Francisco Is The First City To Riot Over Apple Rejecting Green-Friendly Rating System
Just days after word broke that Apple had decided to withdraw its products from the EPEAT registry, San Francisco announced that the city would will stop procurement of Apple's Mac desktops and notebooks. The move may be the first of many such announcements as many local, state, and federal agencies mandate purchases of only computers that meet the EPEAT criteria.
Apple's decision to remove 39 of its products from the registry is puzzling to many considering that Apple is very vocal and transparent about the environmental friendliness of its products and processes. Apple was also one of the companies that helped create the EPEAT standards in 2006.


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|Product Type: Pub table
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|Country of Manufacture: Turkey
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May 17th, 2012
About Carolyn Anderson
Carolyn Anderson (b. 1969) is a recent graduate from the University of Maine at Presque Isle where she earned a Bachelor of Arts Art Education as well as a Bachelor of Fine Arts. She grew up in Houlton Maine and currently resides in Littleton with her three children.
Photography has always been a passion of Carolyn�s since she was very young. Carolyn�s interests in art began to grow after attending art classes. Acrylic painting became another passion.
Carolyn�s work centers on the old and the abandoned. Her senior art thesis explored life and aging through photographs of an old abandoned home. For Carolyn beauty does not hold an interest as much as the bizarre and broken.
Currently Carolyn is working with mixed media collage and exploring other art mediums such as photo transfer and watercolor. She just finished her first book titled �As Time Goes By� which features the images from her series of the same name.
Submitting work to gallery exhibitions around the state has earned Carolyn Honorable Mentions and Special Recognition awards. Carolyn has also made her presence known online through a blog (artbycarolynanderson.blogspot.com), Facebook page, shootproof gallery as well as submitting images for sale on fineartamerica.com and publishing her book on amazon.com. Locally Carolyn�s work can be seen at Morning Star in Presque Isle and Visions in Houlton.
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Analyzing BTFs As Presented By Peter F. Way On BlockDesk.com
This started with just a simple sounding question "How do you tell if a stock is in a BUY range?"
As I started to reply, I realized that a "Buy" decision comes not from not just a couple of simple numbers; but requires an analysis of the entire BTF in order to draw proper comparisons.
Definitions: BTF means Block Trader Forecast. R-R means Risk vs Reward. PT=Price Target. TT= Time Target (63 Market days from Buy). Other abbreviations should be either self explanatory or explained in detail as they are used. Please call my attention to any that are unclear.
First I will pull out a list of stocks that were the "Pick-of-the-Litter" on August 7 of 2014. These are not actually ranked in importance by the current "Weighted R-R" method, so after a day or 2, I will post them ranked both by BlockDesk.com's approved system (Column S), but also by my own Ranking system (Column R) (followed by their performance over the next 3 months). It is not a definitive study, but as I add data I will learn more.
The colmns above are explained in detail below.
My first criteria is that a stock must have Odds (Column H) of ≥87%. Next I look at the Credibility Ratio (Column O) 1 or higher and I can move on, .9 is still good; but will require other favorable factors. At .8 the stock must have a lot else in it's favor or I drop it, and below .8, I look elsewhere. There are many good stocks that are out there somewhere.
At this point I am ready to start comparing stocks "Head-to-Head.
Before going on, I want to clarify each column. A is the Ticker Symbol, B is the "Range High" or Price Target. if a stock does not reach this price within 63 market days, the position is closed out and the capital deployed elsewhere. Column C is the historical lowest drawdown point where, in the past when the stock has had a similar Range Index, this is the furthest it could be expected to fall to. This Drawdown is expressed as a % fall in Column F If it falls below this point, it may well recover into profitability; but probably will not reach PT. Column D is the Closing Price on the day that the BTF was created. Column E (STP=Sell Target Potential) is the % of gain that the stock must reach to hit it's PT or Price Target (Column B). Column F is essentially Column C expressed as a % of Column D. WCD stands for Worst Case Drawdown. In the prior experiences of this stock having had a similar Range Index, it has never fallen a greater % than this in the following 63 Market Days.
The next column, Column G, is the Range Index. This is a value derived by Peter Way's proprietary formulas that reveals in a comparative way; what the Market Makers think of a stock relative to other times in a stock's history. By that I mean that the RI is not an absolute value; but rather a plot between the Range High and the Range Low where the price is now. Here is the way an RI might be plotted;
In this graphic, there are 1261 RIs, but this particular stock seems to stay in a rather narrow band. Other stocks are much less extreme; but the information is not the current number. The information is where the current plot is, relative to the rest. In this case, while the RI (a number from 1-100) is only 34, it is almost the midpoint of plots, meaning that at the time of this plot, there was a nearly equal downside as upside potential. This is not a favorable situation in most cases.
While I may have confused you, don't worry. It's not so much what you know about RIs as what Peter derives from them. That brings us to Column H; the Odds. This represents the % of instances where, when in the past the stock experienced a similar RI, that the stock reached it's PT within the allotted 63 Market Days. 87 % being my cutoff point. There may be times when a different cutoff point is desirable, but I have not found many. The sole exception where I use a lower point is when following a stock for a number of days; I want the stock to remain buyable over time as I revealed in my Blog :seekingalpha.com/instablog/1723621-oldwa...
When following a stock that started above the 87% point, a drop to ~85% does not necessarily mean that the stock has become a "Non-Candidate" unless it stays 85 or lower. I will comment more on that analysis if questions arise.
Column I is the average Payoff that the stock has experienced in the past at similar RIs; different from column E in that E is what is expected to happen now, while I is what has happened prior (Past performance is no guarantee... you know the quote). Column J is the average number of days in prior experiences that it took the stock to hit it's PT. From that is derived Column K "Annualized Rate Of Return" (AROR). The next 3 columns combine to reveal the prior experiences out of all the Market Days that the stock has been followed by BlockDesk.com. Peter has mentioned that they follow stocks that are almost always priced over $10, and they must have enough Options Activity for them to track to derive what the Market Makers are paying for their necessary hedging. That Hedging is what leaves the breadcrumbs for BlockDesk to follow.
Column O is the Credibility Ratio
Concerning the "Cred Ratio", I am going to quote Peter's explanation as stated in my other Blog on the use of the Tools within BD.com( seekingalpha.com/instablog/1723621-oldwa... ):
"The Cred.(ibility) Ratio is a simple measure of how the current sell target upside prospect is supported by the previously achieved % payoffs from similar Range Index events in the sample from history. That test is, when subjected to our standard test of 'was the sell target reached in 3 months, and if not, when closed out, what was the average simple % gain on all of the experiences?' "
In my words, "even if the PT was not reached, how close did it come and how reliably did it produce a profit?" For instance .9 means mostly profitable, where 1.1 means almost always profitable, and frequently hitting it's PT. I cannot give a more exact definition; but by incorporating the Cred Ratio into the other factors, this is a major factor in choosing one stock over another with similar Odds.
Column P is Risk-Reward Ratio. Simply put Column E divided by -(minus to give a positive number result) Column F. Should be considered along with the Cred Ratio in order to rank stocks.
The next 2 columns are where I am incorporating both the number of similar experiences compared to total experiences, along with incorporating the Cred Ratio into a Weighted Odds Index number. Peter's formula uses only the prior number of samples, while I try in mine to use a ratio. The superiority of my formula is yet to be proven, or even properly evaluated. Thus when you get an Int List from Blockdesk.com, it will have Peter's Calculation weighting the odds(Column I) with the Risk Reward calculation. It is again a relative number where you can compare stocks against each other, and right now is the most important factor in ranking stocks in a List. While the numbers I generate are different than Peter's, rarely would mine cause a stock to be ranked higher or lower than Peter's formula.
For those who like playing with Spreadsheets, My formula is
I have approximated Peter's formula, but it is his to reveal or not.
When it gets down to ranking one stock above another similar stock, BlockDesk.com ranks stocks by their Weighted R-R formula first.
If stocks are still very close in rank, I personally look at the Odds and Cred Ratio next, followed by the AROR (often that means looking at Column K {Days Held}).
When it comes to defining what is a "Buy Range", IMO it depends on first, whether it is a stock you are following or whether it is a new buy. Following a stock to see if it is remaining buyable has a slightly lower standard than an initial evaluation.
Still, in the end before I buy a stock, I personally require a stock to have Odds ≥87% (7/8), a Cred Ratio of ≥ .9 initially, and to have stayed at ≥ 85% Odds and a .9 Cred Ratio for more than 1 day. (3-5 days is better). I also want to see a stable Weighted R-R Ratio. A decrease in Weighted R-R Ratio of > 10% is, to me, a warning, and >15% means no. All else being equal, I look at the Days Held column as time is also a cost of investment, and one of great significance. If I have been following a stock for multiple days, and decide to buy, I will use the most current BTF Price Target as my sell target.Dec 09 9:28 PM | Link | 17 Comments
An Analysis Of Possible Advantages Of Market Maker's Opinions Extended Favorable Views Of Stocks Over Single Day Favorable Views
Disclaimer: I have no financial interest in Blockdesk.com. I am an independent retail investor who may trade any stock at any time without notice. I do Beta Test the tools at BlockDesk.com, and have established my opinions from Data obtained from them; but I do my studies independently and at times my opinions may differ from those of Blockdesk.com. Any opinions published here are my own. I try to maintain the highest standards of research possible without outside influence.
As BlockDesk.com is now open for purchases of Data by the Retail Investor, I am more limited now in the obtaining and release of certain "current" data in order to abide by the TOC. Retail Investors are encouraged to browse their site as some data is still Free, and what products they are selling may change without prior notice to me.
Some of the following data was provided to me without charge while the site was Testing. Certain products I have purchased and am sharing with the reader for their benefit. I am not a Financial Advisor, nor should the reader assume that my opinions have any greater intrinsic value than their own.
The people at BlockDesk.com have kindly allowed me access to tools related to this study, as well as some yet unpublished studies in order to (hopefully) enhance the customer's experience using the data available to subscribers at their site.
I personally was spending over $1000/year for investment letters, few of which were able to beat the S&P. In one of my other studies, I am comparing the results of several of these to BlockDesk Tools; but I need to complete this study before I can do a rigorous comparison. While I cannot say publicly who the other competitors are right now, I may be able to once I have true hard irrefutable data for release.
My working premise is that data available at Blockdesk.com provides opportunities for wealth building above and beyond "Buy and Hold" investing; and can also be used, when combined with continuing favorable opinions by the market makers, to not only pick "the Best of the Best"; but also generate additional confidence to buy subsequent dips in order to enhance profitability of previously established positions.
By this I mean that certain stocks are favored for extended periods of time after they enter the "Buy Range" of odds =>7/8 (Approximately 87%). These stocks have often seemed in the past to have outperformed stocks favored for only short periods of time. Additionally, when such stocks have "Dips", the investor may more confidently add to positions on such pullbacks as they appear as the stock works it's way towards the initial closeout target; whether it be the usually recommended 63 Market Days, or the originally established Price Target.
As an example, recently (NASDAQ:JAZZ) was recommended at a buy price of ~$134. A few weeks later, after the earnings report, the stock fell to as low as $122. A look at the Market Maker's opinion of JAZZ at that time on Blockdesk.com showed continuing optimism by the MMs so I viewed this as an opportunity to add to my position. JAZZ subsequently reached my original Sell Target of ~$154 by June 23, and remains above $145 as of this writing.
Historical Perspective;
Peter F Way, has published series of articles about analyzing the hedging activities of the large "Market Makers" in order to discover the stocks that they currently favor, both by the odds of increase, and the amount that they expect them to increase. His method has shown that this data can be very useful in selecting stocks to purchase for long term "Wealth Building" via short term, active investing. For more information about his methods, I suggest reading www.blockdesk.com/p6.html
The Study
38 stocks were selected for favorable Market Maker opinions as of the close on June 27 2014. These stocks were provided to me by the people at Blockdesk.com as being among the most favored for that day. The selected stocks are;
rated by the then current Odds. No other criteria was applied nor requested, as the study will concentrate on the performance and continuing opportunities for profit of the stocks that the MMs continue to favor according to the reported "Odds". Such stocks may fall out of my "Buy Range (selected by me of 7/8 or about 87%); but later return to favorable status. If they do so at the time when their price has fallen since the study began, I will seek to monitor them for their % chance of reaching their respective Sell Targets within the maximum 63 Market days to follow (beginning June 30 2014); or at least what opportunities have presented themselves for some degree of enhanced profitability. My theory here is that such "dips" while still favored by the odds present buying opportunities.
Here is what the list looked like after that Friday's Close.
06/27/2014 DATE Symbol Range High Range Low Current Sell Target % Drawdown Range Index ODDS %Payoff Days Held Annualized Sample Size 06/27/14 DXPE 86.2 73.53 75.7 13.90% -2.20% 17 100 14.00% 24 287.00% 23 of 1051 06/27/14 IWP 92.19 88.31 89.24 3.30% -1.70% 23 100 3.30% 22 45.00% 22 of 571 06/27/14 WAT 119.48 104.58 105.37 13.40% -3.40% 5 100 9.00% 49 55.00% 24 of 1261 06/27/14 RGA 83.95 77.42 78.44 7.00% -3.10% 15 96 6.70% 36 59.00% 28 of 1261 06/27/14 HCA 59.07 50.56 55.43 6.60% -4.20% 57 95 6.60% 38 54.00% 37 of 795 06/27/14 MDSO 49.94 40.18 42.55 17.40% -3.40% 24 95 14.60% 23 359.00% 37 of 1036 06/27/14 ETE 63.4 55.25 58.39 8.60% -3.80% 38 94 7.80% 35 73.00% 77 of 676 06/27/14 ULTI 150.34 130.64 138.65 8.40% -4.00% 40 94 7.70% 31 81.00% 139 of 1020 06/27/14 NEOG 44.13 39 39.83 10.80% -4.00% 16 93 9.20% 41 71.00% 29 of 784 06/27/14 CHD 74.76 68.71 69.49 7.60% -1.80% 12 92 7.20% 45 48.00% 61 of 1261 06/27/14 DOW 54.26 47.78 51.61 5.10% -4.70% 59 92 4.90% 28 54.00% 63 of 1261 06/27/14 FUN 59.71 52.54 52.96 12.80% -3.90% 5 92 9.10% 57 48.00% 26 of 1037 06/27/14 ITC 38.23 34.83 36.27 5.40% -2.30% 42 92 5.50% 35 46.00% 136 of 1261 06/27/14 MANH 37.13 32.52 34.4 8.00% -3.70% 40 92 7.60% 30 84.00% 111 of 1039 06/27/14 TRGP 145.6 131.19 137.04 6.20% -3.20% 40 92 6.40% 27 80.00% 189 of 840 06/27/14 XOP 85.83 76.17 81.7 5.10% -3.10% 57 92 4.90% 24 66.00% 38 of 1261 06/27/14 CP 189.16 171.46 180.13 5.00% -5.20% 48 91 4.70% 35 40.00% 23 of 1261 06/27/14 PPG 216.87 196.48 204.05 6.30% -3.40% 37 91 6.00% 36 50.00% 190 of 1261 06/27/14 SHPG 257.52 228.31 234.98 9.60% -4.60% 22 91 8.60% 40 67.00% 117 of 1036 06/27/14 XBI 164.42 148.31 153.47 7.10% -5.20% 32 91 5.20% 35 43.00% 74 of 1261 06/27/14 AET 90.43 78.29 81.77 10.60% -5.10% 28 90 8.90% 48 57.00% 61 of 1261 06/27/14 COF 88.8 80.27 83.01 7.00% -4.60% 32 90 6.90% 43 48.00% 146 of 1261 06/27/14 ECOL 53.16 46.17 48.99 8.50% -4.60% 40 90 9.20% 41 71.00% 83 of 989 06/27/14 TV 38.08 33.96 34.58 10.10% -3.20% 14 90 9.10% 37 80.00% 31 of 1261 06/27/14 GEL 59.01 54.4 55.26 6.80% -3.70% 18 89 7.20% 51 41.00% 65 of 1261 06/27/14 LMCA 143.23 130.18 134.88 6.20% -3.10% 36 89 4.90% 27 57.00% 84 of 640 06/27/14 PZZA 48.34 40.75 42.45 13.90% -5.20% 22 89 7.10% 49 42.00% 95 of 1037 06/27/14 SDRL 41.94 37.05 39.45 6.30% -4.40% 49 89 5.80% 22 89.00% 37 of 1039 06/27/14 XES 51.31 46.68 48.83 5.10% -4.70% 46 89 4.20% 30 41.00% 175 of 1261 06/27/14 ALSN 34.75 29.65 30.85 12.60% -4.50% 23 88 10.10% 43 76.00% 33 of 561 06/27/14 CHTR 164.15 147.72 154.84 6.00% -3.30% 43 88 5.80% 30 60.00% 34 of 680 06/27/14 CPSI 74.35 62.39 63.82 16.50% -4.70% 11 88 11.00% 45 79.00% 24 of 1058 06/27/14 DW 54.58 49.04 50.12 8.90% -5.00% 19 88 8.60% 41 66.00% 26 of 673 06/27/14 OKE 73.6 63.32 67.51 9.00% -3.90% 40 88 5.40% 32 52.00% 172 of 1261 06/27/14 AXP 100.48 91.26 94.93 5.80% -3.40% 39 87 5.70% 40 41.00% 217 of 1261 06/27/14 BIIB 367.92 305.29 318.13 15.70% -4.10% 20 87 9.90% 41 79.00% 55 of 1057 06/27/14 COP 92.76 84.29 86.01 7.80% -3.90% 20 87 6.90% 45 46.00% 62 of 1261 06/27/14 XRT 90.77 84.1 86.55 4.90% -3.10% 36 87 4.70% 34 40.00% 238 of 1261
As of Close 7/1/2014, some 15 of these had dropped below my "Buy Range" of 87%.
At the end of the first Market week (ending July 3), 18 positions have fallen out of my "Buy Range" as defined. Additionally, 3 positions had inadequate data for a projection (DOW 1/1261, DXPE 1/1055, CHTR 0/684 prior similar experiences) and 2 had listed as "No Expectations, meaning the MMs were making no price prediction at all The portfolio gained an average of 1.8% with only 5 stocks having lost money. Of the 5 stocks having lost money, only one has fallen out of my Buy Range. No stock had fallen enough (>5%) to be considered to be in a "Dip".
IMO it is too soon to draw any conclusions from such little Data after just 1 week. As I continue to gather Data, I will publish what is not considered "Confidential" by them as soon as I am permitted. Much of the following data is available publicly such as Share Prices.
After 2 weeks, these are the stocks that have stayed within my "Buy Range" of 87% for the entire 2 weeks.
Additionally, there were 3 stocks that had stayed in the range for only 1 week.
07/03/14 MANH $37.68 $33.00 $35.08 7.40% -4.80% 44 88/100 5.40% 34 47.00% 77 of 1043 0.7 1.125 07/03/14 MDSO $52.04 $40.33 $43.97 18.30% -4.30% 31 98/100 12.90% 27 211.00% 86 of 1040 0.7 3 07/03/14 RGA $86.72 $78.33 $79.83 8.60% -3.10% 17 94/100 7.10% 38
34 of 1261 0.8
Not all of these stocks have yet reached profitability, while some in the list that did not stay in the range have been profitable. The time period has only been 2 weeks, so profitability has not yet had the time to mature.
The watch-List of Gains and losses is as follows. Keep in mind that the week ending in the 11th was not kind to investors.
Tkr cost/share Date Purchased $Gain %Gain Last Open PE Day $Gain Day % Gain S&P 500 Index 1 1,974.62 07/02/2014 6.95 0.35 1,981.57 1,976.35 -- 8.29 0.42 DXPE 1 75.70 06/27/2014 -5.31 -7.01 70.39 71.01 18.5184 -0.24 -0.34 IWP 1 89.24 06/27/2014 -0.90 -1.01 88.34 88.71 5.57 0.07 0.08 WAT 1 105.37 06/27/2014 -3.87 -3.67 101.50 102.09 22.00 -0.40 -0.39 RGA 1 78.44 06/27/2014 0.85 1.08 79.29 79.94 15.32 -0.30 -0.38 HCA 1 55.43 06/27/2014 5.56 10.03 60.99 58.52 16.32 5.78 10.47 MDSO 1 42.55 06/27/2014 -3.39 -7.97 39.16 39.91 234.1119 -0.33 -0.84 ETE 1 58.39 06/27/2014 -0.59 -1.01 57.80 57.56 134.70 0.46 0.80 ULTI 1 138.65 06/27/2014 -9.41 -6.79 129.24 131.94 136.9449 -1.73 -1.32 NEOG 1 39.83 06/27/2014 0.12 0.30 39.95 41.56 55.2704 -1.28 -3.12 CHD 1 69.49 06/27/2014 -1.64 -2.36 67.85 68.45 24.69 -0.27 -0.40 DOW 1 51.61 06/27/2014 0.46 0.89 52.07 51.72 13.49 0.53 1.03 FUN 1 52.96 06/27/2014 -2.07 -3.91 50.89 50.46 21.10 0.60 1.19 ITC 1 36.27 06/27/2014 -0.74 -2.04 35.53 35.34 22.27 0.15 0.42 MANH 1 34.40 06/27/2014 -2.39 -6.95 32.01 32.36 34.3369 -0.22 -0.68 TRGP 1 137.04 06/27/2014 2.44 1.78 139.48 139.43 81.37 1.48 1.07 XOP 1 81.70 06/27/2014 -2.76 -3.38 78.94 77.94 6.45 1.41 1.82 CP 1 180.13 06/27/2014 3.78 2.10 183.91 182.75 38.06 1.22 0.67 PPG 1 204.05 06/27/2014 1.74 0.85 205.79 206.75 27.82 0.23 0.11 SHPG 1 234.98 06/27/2014 14.29 6.08 249.27 247.81 30.4192 -0.28 -0.11 XBI 1 153.47 06/27/2014 -13.80 -8.99 139.67 142.56 3.56 -2.09 -1.47 AET 1 81.77 06/27/2014 0.39 0.48 82.16 82.84 14.49 -0.22 -0.27 COF 1 83.01 06/27/2014 1.37 1.65 84.38 85.05 11.59 -0.52 -0.61 ECOL 1 48.99 06/27/2014 -0.20 -0.41 48.79 49.40 26.4123 -0.30 -0.61 TV 1 34.58 06/27/2014 0.45 1.30 35.03 34.97 3,946.84 0.11 0.32 GEL 1 55.26 06/27/2014 0.09 0.16 55.35 55.06 51.86 0.55 1.00 LMCA 1 134.88 06/27/2014 5.22 3.87 140.10 139.35 21.9158 1.90 1.37 PZZA 1 42.45 06/27/2014 -1.28 -3.02 41.17 42.04 26.5937 -0.68 -1.62 SDRL 1 39.45 06/27/2014 -0.66 -1.67 38.79 38.55 3.55 0.41 1.07 XES 1 48.83 06/27/2014 -0.89 -1.82 47.94 47.57 4.51 0.61 1.29 ALSN 1 30.85 06/27/2014 0.92 2.98 31.77 31.69 31.03 0.31 0.99 CHTR 1 154.84 06/27/2014 9.14 5.90 163.98 164.05 -- 0.84 0.51 CPSI 1 63.82 06/27/2014 0.23 0.36 64.05 63.96 21.2058 0.16 0.25 DW 1 50.12 06/27/2014 -2.11 -4.21 48.01 48.16 19.74 0.24 0.50 OKE 1 67.51 06/27/2014 -0.67 -0.99 66.84 66.45 56.86 0.43 0.65 AXP 1 94.93 06/27/2014 -0.46 -0.48 94.47 94.81 18.75 0.02 0.02 BIIB 1 318.13 06/27/2014 -14.39 -4.52 303.75 313.83 38.7928 -8.26 -2.65 COP 1 84.29 06/27/2014 2.40 2.85 86.69 85.22 13.02 1.98 2.34 XRT 1 86.55 06/27/2014 -1.62 -1.87 84.93 85.59 4.58 -0.31 -0.36
(NOTE: The above list is from TD Ameritrade, so the stock links won't work unless you have an Ameritrade account. As far as I know, TD is the only Broker I have found that has watch Lists that retain and list all these types of Data (and more). If you trade maybe like 10k/position or greater, the extra few $ per trade is worth the Tools.)
Lastly, I am also watching stocks that fell out of range, but came back into range by the end of the first 2 weeks. This raw data will be posted as it becomes relevant. I will also watch stocks for future such similar situations.
Again, at this stage I am still gathering Raw Data, from which I do not believe conclusions can be drawn. As the weeks pass, and stocks begin to approach at least the prior average numbers of days that it has previously taken these stocks to hit their Price Targets, more will become clearer. The final Data will not be reached until the end of the 3 month "Maximum Holding Period".
We are now 3 weeks into the study, and HCA, SHPG and CP have reached their Sell Targets. HCA and SHPG maintained their "Favorable" ratings for the first week after the initial rating, and only fell out after they had reached their Sell Targets, or were close. CP on the other hand, dropped out of the BUY range almost immediately, and never came back in.
Of the stocks that held their rating for 2 weeks, CHD, FUN, IWP, WAT, XBI ,XOP, and OKE are mildly below their purchase price. while ULTI and XBI have fallen or fell more than the 5% that I established as a true dip that could be bought into to "average down" with some degree of confidence. XBI in particular fell below $140, before rebounding today (7/23) almost 7%. That would have been the best "Oversold" condition so far, and had one bought deeply into the dip, would be smiling today.
If my study supports it, money could also be put into the stocks with mild dips above, but there may be more drawdown before they rebound.
Many stocks that did not hold their buy rating for the full 2 weeks, but held for 1 week are ITC, MANH, MDSO, RGA and PZZA
Symbol Purch price Purch date Gain (%)* Last High Low Sell Target S&P 500 Index 1974.62 07/02/14 0.63 1987.01 1989.23 1982.44 (CHD) 69.49 06/27/14 -4.07 66.66 67.02 66.55 $74.76 (CP) 180.13 06/27/14 10.2 198.51 199.58 197.18 $189.16 (DOW) 51.61 06/27/14 4.42 53.89 54.28 52.31 $54.26 (DXPE) 75.7 06/27/14 -3.14 73.32 73.84 72.01 $86.20 (ETE) 58.39 06/27/14 0.24 58.53 59 58.38 $63.40 (FUN) 52.96 06/27/14 -0.74 52.57 52.68 52.38 $59.71 (HCA) 55.43 06/27/14 11.94 62.05 62.68 61.07 $59.07 (ITC) 36.27 06/27/14 -0.58 36.06 36.34 35.99 $38.23 (IWP) 89.24 06/27/14 -0.49 88.8 88.84 88.51 $92.19 (MANH) 34.4 06/27/14 -8.34 31.53 34.16 31.11 $37.13 (MDSO) 42.55 06/27/14 -4.44 40.66 40.86 40.3 $49.94 (NEOG) 39.83 06/27/14 7.93 42.99 43.14 37.25 $44.13 (PPG) 204.05 06/27/14 3.07 210.31 211.66 209.73 $221.32 (RGA) 78.44 06/27/14 2.45 80.36 80.97 80.35 $83.95 (SHPG) 234.98 06/27/14 8.53 255.03 256.2 253.85 $257.52 (TRGP) 137.04 06/27/14 -0.72 136.05 137.34 135.7 $150.49 (ULTI) 138.65 06/27/14 -6.11 130.18 130.8 128.86 $150.34 (WAT) 105.37 06/27/14 -0.55 104.79 108.16 103.95 $119.48 (XBI) 153.47 06/27/14 -2.09 150.27 150.99 147.64 $164.42 (XOP) 81.7 06/27/14 -2.4 79.74 79.8 78.8 $85.83 (AET) 81.77 06/27/14 3.39 84.54 85.2 84.37 $90.43 (ALSN) 30.85 06/27/14 3.92 32.06 32.06 31.73 $34.75 (AXP) 94.93 06/27/14 -1.74 93.28 93.59 92.82 $100.48 9BIIB) 318.13 06/27/14 6.12 337.6 343.59 331 $367.92 (CHTR) 154.84 06/27/14 5.35 163.13 164.09 162.06 $177.54 (COF) 83.01 06/27/14 -1.23 81.99 82.39 81.95 $88.80 (COP) 84.29 06/27/14 2.93 86.76 86.87 85.69 $92.76 (CPSI) 63.82 06/27/14 1 64.46 65.45 64.08 $74.35 (DW) 50.12 06/27/14 -6.05 47.09 47.77 47 $54.58 (ECOL) 48.99 06/27/14 -3.1 47.47 48.18 47.3 $53.16 (GEL) 55.26 06/27/14 2.01 56.37 56.54 55.46 $59.01 (LMCA) 134.88 06/27/14 4.77 141.31 141.69 139.72 $143.23 (OKE) 67.51 06/27/14 -0.52 67.16 67.43 66.86 $73.60 (PZZA) 42.45 06/27/14 6.34 45.14 45.5 41.55 $48.34 (SDRL) 39.45 06/27/14 -3.55 38.05 38.17 37.92 $41.94 (TV) 34.58 06/27/14 -0.9 34.27 35.09 34.15 $38.08 (XES) 48.83 06/27/14 -1.9 47.9 47.97 47.47 $51.31 (XRT) 86.55 06/27/14 -2.05 84.78 85.05 84.29 $90.77
(NEOG) has now reached it's Target Price and that position closed.
BTFs are not needed to follow the progress of these positions; but rather we can follow them with other Tools available. The Tools below do not include all the stocks on the list, but are an example of how they track the stocks listed. I will track the entire list on such tools about next week; but will exclude stocks that have met their Price Targets.
As you can see, there are still several stocks viewed favorably by the MMs. I would not initiate new positions on these; but would add to these positions on dips.
It is now late August and nearing 2/3s of the Time Target for the maximum holding period for this list.
The above Tool shows all of the stocks from the original List that have yet to reach their Sell Target.
I could only load 20 stocks into the next Tool, so I needed 2 images to display them.
They are both very similar in that the majority of the Stocks gather towards the lower right.
Below is the Correlation study as of 8/13/14. Stocks very near no gain or loss are rated as Neutral. Stocks that stayed favored 80% Odds or Greater during the next 5 Market days are considered to have met my requirements, Stocks that fell below 80% Odds in that week are considered to have less predictive value for being good buys. 24 of the 38 Correlated, with 5 Non Correlations, and the rest have not moved enough to be valid yet. I will revisit these stocks in 1 month to see which ones completed the study in correlation with my thesis.
TKR Stayed Favorable for 5 Market Days Current Stock Price on 8/13 Correlated (AET) No Down Yes (ALSN) No Neutral ------- (AXP) No Down Yes (BIIB) Yes Up Yes (CHD) No Down Yes (COF) No Down Yes (COP) No Down Yes (CPSI) No Down Yes (DOW) Yes Up No (DW) No Down Yes (DXPE) Yes Up Yes (ECOL) No Down Yes (ETE) Yes Neutral ------- (FUN) Yes Neutral ------- (GEL) Yes Neutral ------- (ITC) Yes Neutral ------- (IWP) Yes Neutral ------- (LMCA) Yes Up Yes (MANH) Yes Down No (MDSO) Yes Up Yes (OKE) Yes Neutral ------- (PPG) Yes Neutral ------- (PZZA) Yes Down No (RGA) Yes Up Yes (SDRL) No Down Yes (TRGP) Yes Up Yes (TV) Yes Up Yes (ULTI) Yes Up Yes (WAT) Yes Neutral ------ (XBI) Yes Up Yes (XES) No Down Yes (XOP) Yes Down No (XRT) No Down Yes (CHTR) (HCA) (NEOG) (SHPG) YES Sold at Price Target
(CP) NO Sold at Price Target NO (RGA) YES Sold at Price Target YES (DOW) YES Sold at Price Target YES (MDSO) YES Sold at Price Target YES (PPG) YES Sold at Price Target YES
Since my last update, 4 more of the stocks that stayed in the "Buy" range for multiple days have hit their Price Targets and have been closed out. $RGA $DOW $MDSO, and $PPG
An Intelligence list was purchased in early August. The List contained (NASDAQ:IPXL) (JAZZ) (DXPE) (NASDAQ:ORLY) (NASDAQ:AVGO) (NASDAQ:NFLX) (NASDAQ:ARII) (COF) (NYSE:MGA) (NASDAQ:GMCR)
Of these ORLY, AVGO and MGA did not stay in their Buy Range on the second day. I purchased 4 stocks after my first screening, then 3 more after my 4 day wait for a second screening.
The remaining purchases are:
TKR Buy Date Gain % Last or Sold at Status or Target COF $78.85 08/07/2014 4.87% $82.69 $84.28 NFLX $450.98 08/07/2014 5.48% $476.09 $517.1 ARII $69.77 08/07/2014 14.06% $79.95 Sold JAZZ $133.50 08/11/2014 18.38% $158.04 Sold IPXL 23.56 08/11/2014 4.41% $24.60 $27.87 DXPE 76.72 8/11/2014 5.28% $80.77 $85.91 GMCR 116.39 08/07/2014 11.08% $130.20 Sold
Many of these names appeared on the earlier list, and re-entered favorability by the Market Makers. Any new purchase of a previously owned stock resets the Time and Price Target only if the previous position has been closed. Otherwise, I consider it as simply adding to a previous position, but with the added confidence given by the Market Makers. Such has not happened i this study, but that is how I would handle a situation where one position has closed out and money is freed up. If I have stocks that have dipped since first purchased, and are again favored by the Market Makers, I will often just confidently add to such a position rather than buy a new list just for 1 stock. If I have the need for more than 1 stock, I will reset to a new Intelligence List.
Analysis Conclusion
After 3 months, the votes are in and the positions closed. This was a qualitative analysis, not a quantitative; so I did not do any calculations of what total profit/loss might be, as that was not my purpose. What I was trying to determine was if making sure a stock stayed within the "Buy" range of 7/8 for more days than just the day that it appeared on an Intelligence List.
I started with 38 stocks. Of the 38, 12 reached their sell target within the 3 months. 4 of these were only in the buy range for 1 day, 8 were in for longer. In order to be supportive of my thesis, stocks that stayed within the buy range had to have sold at a profit, and stocks that did not, had to show a loss. In the end, of the stocks that did not reach their Sell Target, 12 were not supportive, 14 were supportive. The totals then were 22 of the total supporting the thesis, and 16 did not.
In view of the 2:1 favorability of the stocks that reached their sell target being supportive, as well as the majority of the rest being supportive, I conclude that there should be an advantage to buying stocks that stayed within the Buy range for more days than just the day that they appeared. Although the numbers were not overwhelmingly favorable, they were ~58% overall, and 66% among the stocks that hit their sell targets.
Making the evidence a bit stronger is that during most of the last month of the study, the overall market was in a correction type of pattern, thus making it more difficult to show a profit under any level of certainty.Tags: Blockdesk.com, Market MakersJul 01 7:07 PM | Link | 23 Comments
Forum On The Tools And Philosophy Of Blockdesk.com, Peter F. Way And His Usage Of Market Maker's Hedging Strategies
Philosophy and Use of Blockdesk.com Tools
TO CONTACT BLOCKDESK: Email firstname.lastname@example.com
Disclaimer: There are examples below of BlockDesk tools provided to me by them at my request as I was preparing this Blog. Any Tool so displayed without explicit reference to any source was so provided or obtained with the help of Blockdesk.com.
This Blog represents my opinions and research about my experiences with this investing philosophy while Beta Testing BlockDesk.com and does not necessarily represent the views and explicit ideas of either Peter F. Way, or the website BlockDesk.com. They did assist me by providing certain tools and pointed me to many references to publicly available information. Still, the opinions and conclusions expressed are my own and those of the contributing posters.
ADDITIONAL Disclaimer: I have no financial interest in Blockdesk.com. I am an independent retail investor who may trade any stock at any time without notice. I do Beta Test the tools at BlockDesk.com, and have established my opinions from Data obtained from them; but I do my studies independently and at times my opinions may differ from those of Blockdesk.com. Any opinions published here are my own. I try to maintain the highest standards of research possible without outside influence.
As BlockDesk.com is now open for purchases of Data by the Retail Investor, I am more limited now in the obtaining and release of certain "current" data in order to abide by the TOC. Retail Investors are encouraged to browse their site as some data is still Free, and what products they are selling may change without prior notice to me.
Some of the following data was provided to me without charge while the site was Testing. Certain products I have purchased and am sharing with the reader for their benefit. I am not a Financial Advisor, nor should the reader assume that my opinions have any greater intrinsic value than their own.
My Opinions:
Peter F. Way has written many articles on "Seeking Alpha" and elsewhere about a different philosophy of investing, which is far different from "Buy and Hold" or even "Market Timing". Instead, he follows Market Makers hedging activities in order to mitigate the risk they assume when investing money into stocks that they have to buy and sell to provide liquidity for their clients. This means having to find (often), a number of other buyers or sellers to accumulate or dispose of enough shares to complete their client's transactions. This means that they often have to put their own money "At Risk" in the process. The basic intent at the trading desk at a Market Maker is to keep the firm's net posture on each stock flat (neither net long nor short) and minimize the firm's end-of-day capital sequestration (aka "haircut") and Risk. To maintain this posture, they need to hedge those positions. This involves interactions with other MMs, who will sell or buy hedging insurance. The proprietary method that Peter has developed follows these hedging activities in order to discern the opinions of the very well informed traders at these institutions. These Market Makers most often have access to information before it is available to the "Retail Investor"(if ever available). At times this information is never available to the public, such as "Client investment strategies". seekingalpha.com/article/1900221-what-th...-dont
This new investment philosophy requires somewhat more time and activity in investing than "Buy and Hold"; but has the potential (in my opinion) for far greater rewards than even most "Active Traders" attain. It means that one sets definite Price Targets or Time Targets (63 Trading days) at which point a position is closed. The "Annualized Return" displayed is based upon en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rate_of_return that provides a "Head-to-Head" comparison between stocks. You might consider it a "Normalized Number", to compare a stock that (for Instance) gains 5% in 28 days, to one that gains 6% in 32 days. As questions arose around this concept, I came to the conclusion that, instead of buying only one or two good looking stocks, the best way to "Play the Odds" was to buy a basket of smaller positions in the most attractive stocks, and look upon it as your own "ETF". One then looks at the entire portfolio as a whole. Is my total NAV going up or down? With the odds that Peter gives us in these tools, there should be enough gain in the winners to far offset the stocks not meeting their PT before the expiration of the Time Limit, though these stocks sold at a Time Limit may well still be profitable after 63 trading days. This is reflected in the Cred(ability) ratio.
Here is where the power of time is realized. A stock that reaches it's PT in 30 days on average; is more desirable than a stock reaching the same % gained in perhaps 45 days.
The first thing I found out after beginning to learn from Peter Way was that I had to change my approach to investing completely. I had to "Unlearn" so much that I had held true, such as Diversity means owning different sectors. Diversity is, in reality buying differently managed companies, whether in the same or different sectors. The information he offers changed my entire way of looking at stocks. I have never been a "Buy and Hold" investor, but I looked at stocks individually, and set "Stop Loss" orders. I was never quite certain about my sell points, so I set my stop losses arbitrarily at what I considered my Risk Tolerance. While I was successful the majority of times, I was distressed at the number of times a stock would hit my stop loss, then after I had been pushed out, would climb back far into where I would have been profitable. In other words, I had no sense of the value of TIME in investing.
Then I read
It hit me then, that time is a cost of investing as much as Capital, Commissions and Fees. In fact, far more so as it is a "Power" rather than a linear cost. Think "Compound Interest". Instead of bragging about my "turning $50 into a fortune", I would just like to point you to Peter's articles on UPRO this last fall (2013) including:
UPRO was ~$66 on August 29. That position closed only 20 days later, having met it's Price Target . One needs to extract the profits in order to experience "Compound Interest". If you just reset the time, it then is buy and hold, and you do not compound your interest. I compare it to a decision similar to Dividend Reinvestment. Dips from volatility become buying opportunities. I have found that, despite a stock looking even better on subsequent occasions, it is critical to stick with the strict discipline of selling at the PT set on the BUY date. If the position still looks good for a buy, one still must compare it to other potential buys. While the original stock may show a 92% forecast of (for example) 8% in 45 Market Days, there may be many other stocks with equal or better odds that are forecasted to reach their target in perhaps 30 days.
While it is tempting to allow the Market Maker's DD suffice, one still has to do your own DD on any buy to make sure that it fits in with your diversity, philosophy, and any news that may have come out since the MMs set their PT. Even 1 day can alter expectations significantly. Further query's often indicate quite different prospects, and a stock may change very quickly. The information gathered is processed after Market Close, and news may change before the next day's open. Further investigations often indicate different prospects, and a stock may no longer be within the desired BR. Stocks do not always reach their PT, but the ones closed at TT are still often profitable. Here is where the Credibility Ratio helps. While "Past performance is no guarantee... Etc.", historical moves when a stock is in similar situations DO tend to repeat themselves, thus we are given "Odds" rather than the empirical "Buy, Hold or Sell" prognostications that Analysts so love.
Best Products: I have found that a valuation that is good one day, may move far from a buyable point the next. In order to get the best results, a stock should stay buyable for several days, either consecutive or over the course of a week. This in not 100%, as I have seen stocks be buyable for only one day, yet generate double digit returns if bought at open the next day. If you can track a stock on the Volatility Tool (See Below), and it stays steady, then it probably stays buyable.
PT=Price Target - The price at which Market Makers would close out a position, it having met it's predicted gain.
TT=Time Target - The length of time in which a stock is expected to reach it's predicted PT. For my purposes, I will be using ~3 months, or ~63 Trading Days. At this time a position is closed, regardless of gain or loss.
MM=Market Makers - The institutions that carry inventories of stocks in order to provide Market Liquidity. More can be read about Market Making at Blockdesk.com in the FAQ. www.blockdesk.com/p6.html and the article by Peter F. Way seekingalpha.com/article/1537352-what-is...%20href=
BR=Buy Range: This is usually at or near the current price of the date that the Tool was created, as MMs (being people) can and do change their forecasts on a daily basis. I personally would like to be able to see a prospect stay within similar odds over a couple of days within a 3-4 day period; but that will have to await the site going "Live".
SP=Share Price
DD=Due Diligence: For these products, much DD has been done by the MMs; but each individual has their own preferences, from buying "Green Friendly" stocks to, in the case of ETFs, exactly what their holdings are in order to reach their goal. Included in this is assessing one's Risk Tolerance.
RI=Range Index: Quote from PFW "The Range Index is the simple calculation of the current market price minus the price at the bottom of the forecast range, divided by the price differences between the forecast top and its bottom. The RI value is the percentage of the price range that lies below the current market price."
BTF= Block Trader Forecasts: Herein is the meat of the product. I will go very deeply into these further below.
CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model)
While stocks may look good on a BTF chart for one day, my best results have come from a stock staying within the "Buy" range (in my case ~87% or 7/8) for at least several days, and even better for an entire week. This not only gives me confidence that the stock is looked upon optimistically, but allows me to confidently add to positions on dips. An example was JAZZ, where the BTFs stayed over 90% even as the stock dropped from ~$133 to $122 around it's reporting period. Acting upon the confidence of positive BTFs, I added to my position several times below $130 from 5/8/2014 to 5/15/2014. Within ~40 Market days, JAZZ had broken my sell target of $150. A stock remaining within the buy range for many days is almost always a very positive sign to add on dips IMO.
When doing DD on stocks I want to buy, I also do DD on the stocks I hold to see what, if anything, has changed. Some people may call this rebalancing, but that, to many people, infers selling losers. I now look at my total portfolio, and rather than paring off stocks that may be down but are still well within their estimated "lifespan"; I do not sell a stock that falls early in it's life, unless some serious event has occurred such as SEC issues, re-stating earnings, even the political climate or some other external force. That does NOT include the announcement of some Big Kid announcing they were shorting the stock. Early in a stock's ~63 Trading Day" span, such occurrences often create a "Short Squeeze" situation, which can propel a stock into closeout territory very quickly. If my DD reveals no other significant changes, these are often the best entry points. I point out the December 2013 such announcement on QCOR, driving the stock down 10+% to ~$50. As of Dec 27 2013, it had rebounded to >$54, at one point reaching $55. That was 10% in ~2 weeks. I'll let others annualize that, me, I'm laughing all the way to the bank.
Using the Tools
There is the temptation to call these charts; but they are better described as Tools, as Charts track historical fact, while these tools also contain forecasts. Some include historical points for reference; but they contain an element of forecasting as well.
The first tool that I want to discuss has just been developed, and is a true "Screener". It is called the Odds vs Payoff Tool.
As you can see, the estimated Odds% goes higher towards the right; and information calculated from column 9 below (% Payoff) decreases with height. In other words, the lower right quadrant is the target spot. I repeat, the % Payoff is not from "Sell Target Potential"; but from calculations made from historical data as it has been derived from results from similar Range Index and Odds, that have happened over the past 5 years. It is suggested that you do enough DD prior to buying this tool to have a promising list. BD.com has now released the number of stocks that one will be able to enter into this screener as 20. Of the stocks at the 100% level, many will be based upon small numbers of prior experiences; and therefore may not have enough prior data to be much more than a gamble. Stocks that plot from 85% to ~98% usually have more prior experiences. In the case of seeing a Tool like the above, I personally would be spending my money on BTF Tools for perhaps #'s 2, 3, 5, 6, 9, and maybe 11.
Volatility Tool
This is another tool for tracking volatility and Risk of stocks. It needs no numerical labels as it is a way of tracking similar positions on the tool as days go by. First, the theory of the table.
The main point here is that the Nobel Prize-winning model CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) mistakenly suggests that volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk. That is completely incorrect. If there were no volatility, there would be neither gain nor loss. Volatility is a necessary component of the market to present opportunity. It's better tracked by this, less cluttered tool. One can track movements around this tool with overlays, but volatility does not equal risk. This may be the hardest thing for investors to unlearn.
This Tool is from the kind people at Blockdesk.com. It plots the volatility towards the upper right; but the movement towards the upper left reveals only a stock's Range Index compared to previous plots. Your best way of establishing risk is from within the BTF Tools such as below. Once established, this Tool is extremely useful in tracking risk without having to buy extra BTFs as they should be used sparingly. There is where the combined wisdom of performance is applied; both from historical data, and the forecasts of the Block Traders. There is no shortcut to assessing risk. You must combine your DD, along with the BTFs
Here is the resulting "Intelligence List" from one of Peter's Articles. Each row is derived from the BTF Tool for that stock.
(click to enlarge)
In reference to this tool, stock 12 (NYSEARCA:IYW) has by far the lowest RI at -2, but has a lower volatility than Stock 1. (NYSEARCA:XME). (XME) has a quite high RI, putting it higher on the Tool, but it's volatility (+10.4% vs -13.3%) is rather higher, putting it more to the right on the Volatility Tool. If one were to build Volatility tools over several days, one could well track the RI and Volatility of each of these stocks. I recommend using a graphic program that allows you to create overlaying layers of less opacity to track movements. My personal favorite is Arcsoft's Photostudio, but there are many out there. There is important data here; but I personally will use it to track movements of a small "Basket" of stocks. Once the website is open, I will use it to track movements of RI and daily volatility. RIs and Volatility predictions can change quickly following the ever-changing opinions of the MMs. They are human also, and as such often change their minds very quickly about a stock's prospects. External forces (think Tsunami), company announcements, credit rating changes, and much information not quickly available to the Retail Investor all change daily, and sometimes even hourly. Example is seekingalpha.com/article/1900221-what-th...-dont
There is no "Cutoff Point" for RIs. They must be used in context with movements around historical RIs of a stock (see the Thumbnail images below).
R-R Tool
I have had to re-learn the uses of the R-R Tool several times. At first I thought that it was only for tracking stocks Day-to-Day (which it does very well; but there are indeed other uses. This is quoted from seekingalpha.com/article/2078463-celgene...
Information Displayed
Quote from that Article.
"These maps plot on their horizontal (Reward) scale the percentage difference in price between the subject's market quote at the time of its near-future forecast and the top of that forecasts price range. Near-future means less than 6 months, typically 2-4 months."
( In My Words- The Horizontal scale is a forecast of Potential Upside from the Day of the Quote used, commonly 63 Market days for my purposes)
"The vertical (Risk) scale, instead of being a forecast, draws from actual experiences from prior forecasts for the subject, where the balance between proportions of upside vs. downside had been similar to what is being seen at present. The risk measure extracted from those prior experiences is the average of each forecasts worst-case price drawdown during the 3 months following the forecast date."
(In My Words-The Vertical Scale amounts to the average of historical maximum risks previously experienced on the way up to the forecasted Upside or over 63 Market Days, whichever comes first.)
What could be unfortunate comparisons in these pictures?
One unequal dimension in the above tradeoffs has to do with the number of risk experiences seen previously that were similar to the present-day forecast of upside-to-downside proportions. A single observation may show up for one subject's history, where dozens or even hundreds of priors were involved in measuring the average price drawdown of another."
(In My Words-This means that a stock may display well, but in the BTF generated, there are not enough prior experiences to determine if a stock is buyable, no matter where it plots in the R-R Tool.) That is why I recommend the Odds vs Payoff Tool for Screening, then plotting in the R-R as a tracking tool.
RI Tools
BlockDesk.com was kind enough to send me a variety of Tool Views seen elsewhere when I inquired about them in order to help us understand more about the relativistic nature of RIs. Along with the RI information is a thumbnail Tool. You will see a range of Range Indexes along the bottom. Left to right are the plots of previous RIs. The height of the plot is the number of samples at similar recorded RIs up to 1261 (5 years of Trading Days). The further to the right the current RI is, the higher the RI. Once a plot has moved to the right of the peak; the less likely a stock with fewer previous experiences is likely to be buyable. Beware stocks with a fewer than 25 RI experiences and to the right of the peak. On the left side of the peak, low RIs in this area are very risky; but for the gambler, far more likely to succeed than the rightmost "Low Sample" RIs are.
Here is what we are looking for:
The combination of a fairly low RI, and quite a few similar experiences make this a less risky trade, and when DD is good, and if the stock has high odds (> 7/8), it is in a likely buyable range. Notice that the RI is to the left of the peak number of experiences. We look for a large number of good experiences similar to a present positive situation.
Here is an example of few samples, and a high RI. This would be a high risk trade, and unlikely to even generate a "Probability" score. It might show up against the "100%" line in the 'Odds vs Payoff" Tool, if at all, often a stock entered into the list to be analyzed will be excluded from being plotted in the Tool due to lack of data or expectations by the MMs. Notice along the bottom they list the total number of RIs that they have recorded. Newer Issues will naturally have less experiences, and several articles has stated that less than 3 years of experiences is suboptimal for the real "magic" to occur.
Even fewer previous experiences make this also very risky trade, but the lower RI may make this a target for a true "Gamble" trade. Again, there are just too few prior experiences to generate any further reliable data. You must rely entirely on DD before gambling here.
Here is a situation with a large number of total experiences, but still few experiences of similar RIs. Another high risk trade, but because of the low RI, probably a better gamble than stocks with less experiences.
Here is an unusual situation. Spikes in the RI Tool indicate periods of time when the MMs have non-current expectations, probably repeating for days on end within the 5 year history. DD MUST find an explanation for these episodes; or you could find yourself with a stock "edited out" of the R-R Tool for lack of MM expectations. Sometimes these are caused by stock splits or M&A events, in which case one has to decide if the risk is worthwhile. Here I refer to the "Editing Out" which Peter had to do in a recent article on ETFs. I lost the bookmark to this, but maybe others recall that one of the first commenters asked where certain stocks had disappeared to. The answer, as I recall, was that those stocks had been edited out and replaced with others due to lack of data. I regret my inability to link this article.
There is much more to write, especially about the BTF Tools, as well as using this information in a "Bear Market". So far within the last 5 years we have had some corrections, but no true Bear Market such as 2008-09 to draw data from. That said, Stocks with above average RIs, and low probability scores most often do not do well subsequently; and may be Short candidates. Not participating in Options atm, I will let others speak to such strategies.
Here we get into the real meat of the value of Peter's work.
This is an example of a BTF Tool
This consists of 3 parts, the top tool includes a chart of prices over either 6 months or 2 years, depending upon buyer's choice. With each price point is the forecast High/Low price range. Two things of note here, one is how quickly the MMs can change forecasts. The other is in the second and 3rd tool parts. The red box indicates that the number of prior experiences is low. The RI Tool shows that the RI is far to the left, which makes gain more likely than if it was to the far right.
The middle tool
Range Forecast High and Low=The actual predicted price range forecast.
Current Price and Sell Target Potential - self explanatory.
Drawdown Exposure - Different from Low Price potential. I Quote Peter here: The drawdowns are not part of the implied forecast ranges. They come from the test of prior RIs like the present RI.
When we applied our standard test of how instances worked out in the next 3 months, or until they reached their sell targets, each one of them had some worst-case price drawdown. In an ideal situation, when the forecast was at the bottom of subsequent price progress, that worst-case would have been 0%. In all others, the actual price experience would be below the cost price of the equity following the forecast, some negative percentage change." Now in this particular graphic, there was only 1 prior, but the definition applies to all BTF Tools. it is NOT the Low forecast as a %, but is derived from an average of all past "Bad Experiences.
A similar but Opposite description applies to the "%Payoff" block, but is derived from an average of all past "Good Experiences".
The rest of the information is also rather self explanatory except the "Annualized" column, which is described in Peters Article; seekingalpha.com/article/1537352-what-is...
" In each case, divide the closeout price [cp] by the end of day price the day after the forecast (it being the assumed cost of investment) [ic]. Set the result [r] aside.
When all instances of interest have been measured, add up all of the calendar days [d] it took to reach all of the closeouts. Count the number of instances that have been measured [n]. Multiply any one result by all of the others, one at a time, and take the [n]th root of the product to get what is known as their geometric mean [gm]. Then divide the total number of days [d] by the number of instances to get an average holding period [hp] for each instance.
Now take the [gm] and raise it to a power of (1 divided by the [hp]) to get an average rate of change per day [dc]. Then raise the [dc] to the power of the number of calendar days in a year to get the annual rate of change [ar], which is what is wanted when comparing things with different natures over different periods of time.
For those with an algebra fetish, here is that process in letters rather than numbers:
[r] = [cp] / [ic]
[gm] = (r*r*r*r…)^ (1/[n])
[hp] = [d]/[n]
[ar] = ( ( [gm]^ (1/[hp]) ) )^365)-1"
Detailing the Intelligence List;
In an attempt to avoid "Information Overload", The people at BlockDesk.com sent me this colorized "Intelligence List".
Yellow is quote data, gold is their proprietary analysis or derived directly from it. Blue is historical performance of the issue when the MMs valued its RI similarly in the past.
This is an example of a more attractive looking Intelligence List of Long Levered ETFs from seekingalpha.com/article/1920371-best-bu...-maker
Remember that these Tools are not current, and are only for demonstration purposes. I call your attention to the 2 rightmost columns. The "R ~ R ratio is a simple math ratio of Upside Sell Target Potential/Drawdown Risk. We saw a very important column in the "next-to-last" column above labeled "Cred-Ratio".
Concerning the "Cred Ratio", I am going to quote Peter's explanation from the referenced article.
"The Cred.(ibility) Ratio is a simple measure of how the current sell target upside prospect is supported by the previously achieved % payoffs from similar Range Index events in the sample from history. That test is, when subjected to our standard test of 'was the sell target reached in 3 months, and if not, when closed out, what was the average simple % gain on all of the experiences?' "
Since this was published, Peter has changed the Cred Ratio expression to a different display, where what was 100% is now 1, 150% - 1.5 etc. Aditionaly, Peter has added a new column, the "Weighted R-R", which is not a measurement in that it has no "value" attached; but adds extra weight to those stocks with more samples experienced, and less weight to stocks with few samples.
**The Cred Ratio is especially important when a Graphic Display is confusing with many spikes or "Flat-Line" areas when there were no daily expectations. Any confusing graphic display should lead you to look at the Cred Ratio, and in my experience, any Cred Ratio below .9 (90%) requires extra DD before a purchase.
Something I should discuss on the BTF Tool is that you can look at historical data and often see where there were "Buy Ranges" and "Sell Ranges". The placement of the price on the vertical bar is simply the graphic display of the Range Index. What you can spot is where the price block climbs above the top of a previous Range. That is the Price Target established on a prior day. Below is a Tool of Amazon that points out several probable BR days, (Green Lines) and when the price broke the top of that day's Price Target. This may be confusing a bit, but not having the daily Odds available on these previous days, I can only say that if purchased on the Green line day, and selling on the corresponding Black line day, the PT was hit prior to the 63 day Time Target.
The first image is not annotated so you can better see the "Buy" price positions. My Annotations are a bit clumsy
These Tools do not IMO represent DD; but present a valuable tool from which I would select favorable looking stocks upon which to do fundamental DD. I am not a "Technician" who relies upon technical data only.
This is the updated Risk/Reward Tool of th 35 lesser known stocks in the article
Using Intelligence Lists
Assuming a purchased Intelligence list contains 20 stocks or more;
I take the top 10 from the R-R, Volatility and Win Odds Tools after the next day is finished. I want to make sure a stock stays favored for 2-4 Market Days. I then look at the SP history charts from elsewhere. Taking from that, the best 6, then do DD at brokerages sites as well as other sources such as recent SEC filings. While no one factor is a definite BUY, I can often find preponderences pointing either way. That said, I sometimes find a single "Don't Buy" signal such as SEC problems that are decided against a company, or things in their SEC filings that are hidden at the bottom. (I once found a fair looking stock; but in a disclaimer, they stated that they did not have the assets to meet their Notes Due in the next 30 days.)
I settle on 4 after 2 Market Days, and will add 4 more after 3-5 Market Days. The entire list will be treated as 1 "ETF" with a Purchase Date as rated at the date of the Intelligence List Data and Target Prices established and Sell Target Date established from the date of the original list.
BlockDesk.com is now open to the Retail Investor for the purchase of Intelligence Lists, and may offer other products at any time.
PLEASE GO TO www.blockdesk.com/ FOR UPDATES ON THEIR STATUS
September 14 Update:
(1)Date(NYSE:A) (2)Tkr(NYSE:B) (3)Rng High(NYSE:C) (4) Rng Low(NYSE:D) (5)Current Price(NYSE:E) (6)Sell Tgt%(NYSE:F) (7)WCD(NYSE:G) (8)RI(NYSE:H) (9)ODDS(NYSE:I) (10)%Payoff(J) (11)DH (12)AROR(NYSE:L) (13)Sample Size(NYSE:M) 6/27/2014 XRT $90.77 $84.10 $86.55 4.90% -3.10% 36 87/100 4.70% 34 40% 238/1261 6/30/2014 XRT $90.89 $84.19 $86.80 4.70% -3.40% 38 86/100 4.50% 35 37% 253/1261
This is an example of many reasons not to buy. #1 Column (I) fell below 87% on the next Market day. #2 Annualized or AROR starts at 40% and drops. #3 It does meet my Sample criteria. #4 The Credibility Ratio (not shown) was good at 1.0 #5 The Risk/Reward (=J/-F) or %Payoff / WCD (Worst Case Drawdown) = 1.516 on the 27th, and 1.324 on the 30th.
As of Sept 12, the price was at 89.12. a gain, but not to the 4/9% predicted gain yet. This is a case where even though multiple parameters were not met, the stock still will probably be profitable when sold at Time Target of 9/28. It may even still hit it's Price Target. It had a few rough spots, dipping to as low as $83.61 on 8/1 Close (perhaps lower mid days some days) but still rebounded. This is why you do not sell at Range Low, or even WCD.
Disciplined Timed Investment means just that. No investment is held >63 Market days, nor sold before then unless it hits it's Range High ForecastJan 01 12:44 AM | Link | 79 Comments
Analyzing BTFs As Presented By Peter F. Way On BlockDesk.com http://seekingalpha.com/p/23vez Dec 9, 2014
An Analysis Of Possible Advantages Of Market Maker's Opinions Extended Favorable Views Of Stocks Over... http://seekingalpha.com/p/1t1fj Jul 1, 2014
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Carpey Law
This law practice is focused on the representation of clients involved in complex civil litigation, including representing severely injured individuals in a vast array of personal injury cases, civil rights cases, and the representation of individuals and small businesses in disputes involving insurance claims.
Pennsylvania, November 1987
United States District Court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania, January 1988
United States District Court for the Middle District of Pennsylvania, November 2009
United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, August 2001
B.A. University of Maryland, December 1983
J.D. Villanova University School of Law, May 1987
Pennsylvania Bar Association
Philadelphia Bar Association
Philadelphia Trial Lawyers Association
Pennsylvania Association for Justice
Montgomery Bar Association
American Association for Justice
Million Dollar Advocates Forum
100 West Elm Street
Suite 310
Conshohocken, PA 19428, United States
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Reviews for Top China
Latest Yelp Reviews
Overall Rating:
Based on 2 Reviews
Based on 2 Reviews
Mike M. posted on 08/22/2013
Rating & Review:
We have enjoyed all of the meals we have tried here. I frequently get the shrimp egg fu young and my wife gets various chicken dishes. The $5.50 lunch... read more
Michael P. posted on 06/02/2014
Rating & Review:
Are used to think that this place was great. It wasn't until I branched out and had other Chinese food then I realized that this place was subpar from what... read more
Write a Review


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Tomtom iPod GPS Kit
This is a mount with gps built in and a speaker builtin, for iPod Touch. Not for 5th Gen iPod as that is bigger. All you need to do is install the Tomtom App from the App Store (not free) and then with this Car Kit you will have full TOMTOM GPS Sys


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JMac-Photo... Photographer
Vimala FaithModel Female New York, New York, US
My Website: Vimala FaithMy MM URL: http://www.modelmayhem.com/VimalaFaith
Mayhem # 2842552
About MeI am a model, new to New York City. I have high fashion aspirations. I also specialize in vintage looks and fashions. You can view my portfolio on Facebook @VimalaFaith. Feel free to contact me at email@example.com
JMac-Photo... Photographer
Studio Captura Photographer
David Hilton Photographer
Duke Morse Photographer
Ben De Cordova Hair Stylist
Epic Win Photographer
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GEORGIA/MOLDOVA: Wine co's target European export growth
Wine producers from Georgia and Moldova will be hoping for a marked rise in exports to the European Union moving forward, following the signing of trade deals last week.
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Unilever HouseOctober 22, 2014Office • London, United Kingdom
Great view from glass elevator.
Christmas shop is on 4th floor across from Starbucks.
Really good for events/conferences and great location. Wi-fi, staff and restaurant food impecable. True 5 star.
Good location. 5 min walk from central Zoo bus station and 6-7min walk to KaDeWe in the other direction. Only if reception staff would be more attentive to guests waiting in line..
Lost and found: if you don't remember the exact date when you lost it, forget trying to get it back. They won't even attempt to help.
Collections point is upstairs at bedding.
Dissapointing experience overall. Lady washing my hair forgot my towell so my back was soaked, ended up with a haircut much shorter than I wanted. Staff have good intentions but executed poorly...
Lots of shops and places to eat, seemed better than JungCeylon in Patong.
The steamed fish with lime and chili is excellent. Also, pleasantly surprised that the owner came to take our order and his English was very good.
Resort in a remote location, tranquil and peaceful with amazing jungle views. Ideal for getting away from civilization; 5 star resort with all the modern conveniences and a touch of Thai tradition.
Costa coffee on 7th floor and a great city view.
Nice for escaping the crowds and feeding black swans..


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Phasing and Motor Rotation Meters
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- Phase And Motor Rotation Tester, Up to 600VAC Voltage RangePhasing and Motor Rotation Meters
These instruments help to show the direction a 3-phase motor will rotate when connected to a power source.
- Item # 3T838
- Mfr. Model # 560060
Phase And Motor Rotation Tester, Voltage Range Up to 600VAC, Frequency Range 50/60Hz, Display Analog Meter,...More
Price $1,473.00 / each
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Catalog Page # 784
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