text:
WASHINGTON � The Obama administration adopts a landmark national strategy to fight Alzheimer�s today, setting the clock ticking toward a deadline of 2025 to finally find effective ways to treat, or at least stall, the mind-destroying disease.
But work is beginning right away: Starting today, embattled families and caregivers can check a new one-stop website for easy-to-understand information about dementia and where to get help. The National Institutes of Health is giving the green light to some major new studies of possible therapies, including a form of insulin that�s squirted into the nose.
And the world�s top Alzheimer�s scientists gathered this week to decide what other research should take place next in order to meet that ambitious 2025 deadline.
�These actions are the cornerstones of an historic effort to fight Alzheimer�s disease,� Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said in a statement. She was announcing the steps today at the meeting of researchers.
The first National Alzheimer�s Plan comes at what many scientists think is a pivotal moment. Alzheimer�s is poised to become a defining disease of the rapidly aging population. But researchers are pushing for a big change in how potential therapies are tested, by trying them in people who don�t yet have full-blown Alzheimer�s symptoms, when it may be too late to help.
�There�s a sense of optimism� thanks to some new discoveries, Dr. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, told scientists at the Alzheimer�s Research Summit on Monday.
But, �we need to figure out exactly where is the best window of opportunity� to battle back Alzheimer�s, Collins added. He said cardiologists don�t test cholesterol-lowering drugs on people already near death from heart failure.
It�s clear that Alzheimer�s quietly brews in the brain, killing off cells, for 10 years or more before symptoms appear, Dr. Reisa Sperling of Harvard Medical School told the meeting. She called that time period an important opportunity to try to stave off the disease, at least postponing the memory loss and other symptoms.
Already, 5.4 million Americans have Alzheimer�s or related dementias. Barring a research breakthrough, those numbers will rise significantly by 2050, when up to 16 million Americans are projected to have Alzheimer�s. Already, it�s the sixth-leading killer, and there is no cure. Treatments only temporarily ease some symptoms.
Beyond the suffering, it�s a budget-busting disease for Medicare, Medicaid and families. Caring for people with dementia will cost the U.S. $200 billion this year alone, and $1 trillion by 2050, the Alzheimer�s Association estimates. Even that staggering figure doesn�t fully reflect the toll. Sufferers lose the ability to do the simplest activities of daily life and can survive that way for a decade or more. Family members provide most of the care, unpaid, and too often their own health crumbles under the stress.
So the National Alzheimer�s Plan, required by Congress, takes a two-pronged approach: focusing on future treatments plus help for families suffering today.
�There is a reinvigorated focus on this disease,� Donald Moulds of HHS told The Associated Press.
Among the first steps:
NIH�s Collins today will announce an $8 million study of an insulin nasal spray that pilot-testing suggests could help Alzheimer�s. It�s based on growing evidence that diabetes and Alzheimer�s are related, damaging how the brain is fueled. The insulin nasal spray can reach the brain without affecting blood-sugar levels.
Also, NIH was contributing $16 million to an international study of whether a treatment targeting amyloid, Alzheimer�s hallmark brain plaque, could prevent the disease. The study will include people at highest risk, genetically, of the disease, including Americans and a unique group in Colombia.
The government will begin offering training to doctors and other health providers on the best ways to care for patients and their families.
A government website � www.alzheimers.gov � will offer one-stop information, in plain English about the disease and the challenges for families, including the financial burden. It also will link families to local resources near them, such as where to find the nearest adult day care, Moulds said.
A $4 million advertising campaign this summer will spread word of the website. �Questions. When you�re caring for a loved one with Alzheimer�s, not a day goes by that you don�t have them,� the ad says. �The answers start here.�
Beyond the initial steps, the plan lays out ways that federal and state governments plus private and nonprofit organizations can collaborate to battle Alzheimer�s � from improving early diagnosis to creating more resources to help families with long-term care of their loved ones at home.


text:
Celso Gomes : Designing in "WPF/E"
- Posted: Dec 04, 2006 at 9:25AM
- 16,430 views
- 4 comments
Loading user information from Channel 9
Something went wrong getting user information from Channel 9
Loading user information from MSDN
Something went wrong getting user information from MSDN
Loading Visual Studio Achievements
Something went wrong getting the Visual Studio Achievements
Right click "Save as…"
Ernie Booth and Laurence Moroney visited Celso Gomes, the 'God' of "WPF/E" demos who demonstrated how he was able to write some very cool stuff in "WPF/E" including the page turning sample and some 2.5 D graphics. These graphics were so convincing in their depth that they fooled the autofocus on our camera!
Oops, something didn't work.
Comments have been closed since this content was published more than 30 days ago, but if you'd like to continue the conversation, please create a new thread in our Forums, or Contact Us and let us know.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Home > Food > Recipes > Glazed Smoke-Roasted Fresh Ham with Honey Mustard Sauce
Glazed Smoke-Roasted Fresh Ham with Honey Mustard Sauce
Categories: Christmas, Entertaining, On the Grill
Type: Main Dishes
Type: Main Dishes
This ham dish is delicious, easy to prepare, and unusual enough to cause a bit of comment.
Serves: Serves 10 to 12
- 1 bone-in fresh ham (half an uncured hind leg), 8-10lb (3.5-4.5kg), skin on
- 11/2 cups freshly squeezed orange juice
- 11/2 cups pineapple juice
- 3 tablespoons roughly chopped fresh sage
- 25 whole cloves
- 1/3 cup coarse grainy mustard
- 1/3 cup honey
The brine (optional)
- 3 quarts (3 liters) water
- 2 cups dark rum
- 1 cup dark brown sugar
- 1 cup kosher salt
- 2 tablespoons ground allspice
Save Recipe
Add to shopping list
- Score diagonal cuts both ways into the skin of the ham with a sharp knife to make a diamond pattern all over it.
- If brining the ham, combine the brine ingredients in a container large enough to easily hold the ham and stir to dissolve the salt and sugar. Place the ham in the container, making sure that there is enough liquid to cover it completely. Refrigerate for at least 24 hours and up to 3 days, turning the ham over every 12 hours.
- Combine the fruit juices in a small saucepan on the stove top over medium-high heat and bring to a boil. Lower the heat to a simmer and stir frequently, until the mixture is syrupy (about 25 minutes). Stir in the sage and set aside.
- Light a fire well over to one side of your grill, using enough coals to fill a large shoebox. Remove the ham from the brine and dry it well with paper towels. (If you did not brine the ham, season it generously with kosher salt and black pepper.) Insert the cloves evenly across the skin in the points of the diamond-shaped cuts.
- When the fire has died down and the coals are covered with white ash, place the ham on the side of the grill away from the coals, being careful that none of the meat is directly over the coals. Put the lid on the grill with the vents open one-quarter of the way, and cook, adding a handful of fresh charcoal every 30 minutes or so. Start checking for doneness after 2 hours; it may take up to 3 hours to fully cook. Baste it generously with the fruit juice glaze during the last 30 minutes of cooking. To check for doneness, insert a meat thermometer into the center of the ham and let it sit for 5 seconds, then read the temperature: look for 134°F (57°C) for medium, 150°F (66°C) for medium-well, and 160°F (71°C) for well done; we pull the ham at 147°F (64°C). When the ham is done to your liking, remove it from the grill, cover it loosely with foil, and allow it to rest for 20-30 minutes before carving.
- While the ham is resting, combine the mustard and honey in a small bowl and mix well. To serve, carve the ham into thick slices and pass the sauce on the side.
excerpted from:
Excerpted from Grill It!.
Copyright © 2008 Dorling Kindersley Limited.
Buy this book now!
Sign-Up Now!
Sign up to save recipes or create shopping lists online.
Already registered? Login here
Cooking Tips
Loading the player...
More Videos:


text:
12 Dec 2011 9:37 AM #1
Unanswered: Large Amount of data to Remote Web Service
Sending a large amount of data to web service from Sencha Touch. Something that allows me to not send it through a query string? Can I send my data through the header instead?
I have a store setup using 'scripttag' and it works sending data to my web service when I remove some of the data out of my json. I can receive the data and see it in a variable in my web service. When I add the large text block back into my json, it fails with bad request. I plugged my json with all the data in it, into http://jsonlint.com/. It informs me that my json is well formed with the data being sent.
I'm open to alternate approaches, so here is how it is structured. I have 3 stores that hold offline data until the user is ready to upload the content to the server. It is my header information(similar to an order header), details (similar to items on an order) and a signature (using the signaturePad plugin in floating around on the Sencha Touch forums). I manually build a json record using these three stores. The signature data is raw, so it is a huge string which is the item causing the problem. I want to get that data up to the server where I will convert it to an image there instead of on the device.
I believe the problem I'm having is related to the allowed size of the querystring. Is there a way to send the data through the header with a large amount of data?
12 Dec 2011 1:26 PM #2
- Join Date
- Mar 2007
- Location
- Gainesville, FL
- Posts
- 39,174
- Vote Rating
- 1258
- Answers
- 3855
If you are trying to load on a different domain (cross origin) then you are stuck with scripttag proxy and the params will be url encoded. The JSON must also be wrapped in a callback JS function that is pasted int he callback param.Mitchell Simoens @LikelyMitch
Sencha Inc, Senior Software Engineer
Check out my GitHub, lots of nice things for Ext JS 4 and Sencha Touch 2
Think my support is good? Get more personalized support via a support subscription. https://www.sencha.com/store/
Need more help with your app? Hire Sencha Services email@example.com
Want to learn Sencha Touch 2? Check out Sencha Touch in Action that is in print!
When posting code, please use BBCode's CODE tags.


text:
I agree with you regarding wearing full safety gear while riding DH and not being overly concerned about weight. I'm also not a racer and ride just for fun. However, weight savings would be at the bottom of the list when you tally up the advantages of thin pedals. There are many threads you can research that go into the subject. That said these are the two major advantages for me.
1) Thinner pedals equal fewer rock strikes in the first place. Avoiding impact goes a long way to saving pedals, crashes, etc.
2) The key benefit were missing from other traditionally mounted pedals is having the thickness of the platform well inside the diameter of the spindle. Certainly there are now a number of thin, light, large platform pedals but none, which Im aware of, with this particular feature. If you've ever had the opportunity to ride a set of Fly Paper pedals you'll know the incredible benefit this feature provides.
I currently have Canfield Crampons on three of my bikes and wouldn't go back to a thicker pedal. In my experience the degree of advantage to thin pedals is analogous to amount of advantage supplied by height adjustment seat posts.
Good Riding,
Results 26 to 50 of 81
Thread: Another unique flat


text:
The off flavor i am tasting is sweet, and actually tastes malty/caramel. It's supposed to be an IPA but this sweet flavor is disconnected form the hops. Will leaving it in the bottle longer help this out? I did use 9lbs of LME for this recipe and about 3 oz of hops and a few oz of grain. The sweetness really does bother me.
Extract twang is not an extract issue at all. It is a fermentation issue derived from poor yeast health, under pitching, temperature fluctuations or any other phenomena that stresses yeast out.
If the beer was only in primary for one week with poorly fermenting yeast that could be the source of your problem. Next time go with two weeks primary as a minimum, at the least.
In my experience, it will not really go away in the bottle only get more pronounced as the beer ages/oxidizes slightly.
Old extract has been found to produce that kind of off flavor. For that reason, either make sure the LME you use is fresh or use DME instead. It has much less chance of being stale and oxidized.
I don't know that I agree that this isn't an extract issue (though you certainly could have interrupted fermentation as well). Depending on the malter's process and the darkness of the LME you used, you may be tasting excess melanoidins produced by the malter or by your concentrated partial boil. I think if you boil too long, you might also experience this flavor.
This brief article discusses Browning reactions briefly. Start there http://morebeer.com/articles/kettle_reactions
Oxidation could certainly contribute as well.


text:
[Update: Back – now with Eliza]
We will be launching our new Eliza Api on Friday night (around 22 pm CET). This will enable developers to create bots that can act as players on Weewar.
We'll provide more details on Eliza later on. We expect this update to take several hours.


text:
Until a few years ago, Saudi Arabia's Adel Al-Jubeir was mainly known in Washington for his fourteen years of behind-the-scenes diplomatic work as special assistant to Saudi Ambassador Prince Bandar bin Sultan. But in 2000, Adel Al-Jubeir stepped out into the international limelight as his country's voice to the West and foreign policy adviser to Crown Prince Abdullah, the Kingdom's day-to-day ruler.
Veteran diplomatic correspondent Lee Michael Katz interviewed the often-frank Jubeir on May 6, getting Saudi views on a variety of subjects, from a proposed international peace conference on the Middle East to a possible U.S. war with Iraq.
NJ: The United States plans to arrange a major Middle East peace conference. Will Saudi Arabia participate?
Al-Jubeir: Our view is that if it's going to be a meeting in which we shake hands and discuss modalities and timelines, it would frankly be a waste of time. If it is a meeting in which we will discuss what we know a final outcome should look like, that may be a different situation. Until we know that, it would be impossible to give a yes or no answer.
We don't have any indication that Israel accepts the concept of withdrawal from the occupied territories. We don't have any indication from [Israeli Prime Minister Ariel] Sharon that he accepts a freeze on settlements. Quite the contrary, he has said he will not freeze settlements through the year 2003.
For him today to be speaking about peace and peace agreements is being disingenuous. It's certainly not the kind of peace that the rest of the world is talking about.
NJ: Can Ariel Sharon change his thoughts, in your eyes?
Al-Jubeir: I'm not a psychologist, nor am I a mind reader. It is up to him to determine how history will remember him. He has the opportunity to be remembered as a peacemaker, or he has the opportunity to be remembered as a man with blood on his hands.
NJ: Sharon came to Washington saying he won't negotiate with Arafat. What does that mean for the peace process?
Al-Jubeir: It means that Sharon is not serious. You make peace with your adversaries, not with your friends. If Sharon thinks for one moment that he will have the Palestinians kow to him, he's dreaming.
NJ: The Crown Prince had great criticism of the United States for not being engaged, just a few months ago. Do you think the Bush administration is really serious about Middle East peace or just wants to put off Arab criticism in order to further its goals against Iraq?
Al-Jubeir: I don't believe it's an issue of placating the Arab world. I think it's an issue of protecting America's interests. America does not take positions because of charity; no country does.
As your friends, we believe in being frank and sincere with you. We saw the continuing violence in the territories as undermining America's credibility and interests in the region.
This administration is now fully engaged in the Middle East peace process. We saw the results in the mediation efforts with regard to the standoffs in Ramallah and the Church of the Nativity. We also see it in enhanced consultations and coordination between the United States and its friends in the Arab world, as well as its European allies.
NJ: The United States and Saudi Arabia have had a special relationship since Franklin Roosevelt. But probably the most serious rift in its history was on display recently when a senior Saudi official warned that your country might even use oil as a weapon against the United States.
Al-Jubeir: We denied it vehemently. Oil is not a weapon. It is not a tank. You cannot fire it. Every single human being on this planet, in one way or another, is dependent to some extent on what happens in the oil markets. It's too important an issue to fiddle with. It is our policy to depoliticize oil.
We have had solid relations for over six decades. Those relations have seen the coming and breaking of many storms. Even today, our relationship is extremely strong on every level: economic, political, military, people to people. Where people saw a rift, which is not a rift, was us urging the administration to play a bigger role in bringing an end to the violence between Israelis and Palestinians. Perhaps you've noticed a partnership that is emerging between Saudi Arabia and the United States for the sake of peace in the Middle East.
NJ: You've also been very careful about your image in the United States after September 11. Is Saudi Arabia trying to compete with Israel in influencing Congress?
Al-Jubeir: After September 11, we made an effort to reach out to members and explain to them what Saudi Arabia is doing in the war on terrorism, because there were a lot of misrepresentations in the American media.
Our dealings with Congress are not an attempt to compete with anyone. Our dealings are an attempt to explain the nature of the bilateral relationship and its importance to both countries. Members of Congress in general are reasonable and willing to listen. A lot of the shock that people had in the fall has dissipated to a large extent.
NJ: The fact remains that 15 of 19 of the September 11 hijackers had Saudi ties. Many people say that religious schools nurtured by Saudi money in Pakistan, in Afghanistan, around the world-even here-preach hate against the United States. What has Saudi Arabia done about that?
Al-Jubeir: On the issue of the Saudis on the planes, Osama bin Laden's Al Qaeda organization has membership from 60 different countries. He could have put any number of nationalities on those planes. He intentionally chose Saudis to give the operation a Saudi face in order to drive a wedge between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. You know what? He almost succeeded, but it didn't work. With regard to the funding of schools, it's unfortunate that when it comes to Saudi Arabia, oftentimes charges are treated as facts. They're not investigated. We have not been able to get anyone to name one school - one school - preaching hatred of the West that is funded by Saudi Arabia.
NJ: A lot of people seem to think the madrassas really do preach hate, that Westerners are infidels -
Al-Jubeir: But how are we tied to it?
NJ: You fund them.
Al-Jubeir: We don't fund them. People talk about them because maybe the building was built by Saudi money, yes. You have 3 million to 4 million Afghan refugees in Pakistan, living in squalor, and we are very proud of the fact that our citizens stepped up and built shelters for them. If those shelters are transformed by evildoers into breeding grounds for extremism, do you blame the person who gave the money in order to shelter refugees? Of course you can't.
NJ: Why did you take the extraordinary step of broadcasting ads about Saudi Arabia's role in combating terrorism?
Al-Jubeir: We were cooperating with the war on terrorism from day one. Your secretary of the Treasury is very appreciative of it, your State Department, your president, Secretary Rumsfeld.
The ads are an attempt to show that Saudi Arabia cares about its relationship with the United States and wants to ensure the American public is aware of the facts. There's nothing wrong about it.
NJ: I read an editorial suggesting that Saudi Arabia is taking such a visible role in peacemaking to remove "the stain" of its link to September 11.
Al-Jubeir: That's absolute nonsense. Saudi Arabia is committed to the peace process. It has been for over 30 years.
The reason the Kingdom stepped up to the plate now is because this problem has gone on for too long unattended, and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia felt that he had to step in and offer a way out. He received immediate support from over 60 countries. It re-energized the peace camps in Israel, Europe, and in the U.S.
It re-energized or refocused governments around the world on this problem. That was the motivator. The motivator was not a public-relations ploy, because if that were the case, why not introduce it in October instead of February or March?
NJ: Sharon said he'd love to go to Saudi Arabia. Why will no Saudi diplomat speak to Sharon or any Israeli official?
Al-Jubeir: Because it's a charade by Sharon. Sharon's problem is with the Palestinians, not with Saudis. The proper address for Sharon to talk to is Yasir Arafat's, not Riyadh. If America has a problem with Canada, can America demand that it talk to India? Of course not.
Sharon has talked about everything under the sun, proposing one plan after another-and they're all weak. But he hasn't talked about the main issue: Is he willing to end the military occupation of Palestinian land? Is he willing to allow a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza and willing to return the Golan Heights in return for acceptance, a formal end to the conflict with Israel, and normal relations with the Arab world? Everything the Israelis have ever wanted for 50 years is on the table, and Sharon still refuses to take yes for an answer.
NJ: The Israelis brought to the White House a report-and there have been other reports-that Saudi Arabia funds terrorism by paying money to relatives of those who've conducted suicide bombings.
Al-Jubeir: What you have is a lie that's repeated and repeated, and people assume it's a fact. Saudi Arabia does not support terrorism. Saudi Arabia is very proud of the fact that it has given hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars to the Palestinians over the years to build their institutions, infrastructure, put food on their tables, medicine in their pharmacies. Fifty percent of the Palestinians today, as a consequence of the Israeli occupation and aggression against them, live below the poverty line.
Thousands of Palestinians have had their breadwinners killed by the Israelis. Are we supposed to sit back and do nothing? Can I say that the American government supports suicide bombers because it gives money to the Palestinians?
NJ: Can you say that none of the Saudi money went to families of suicide bombers in exchange for their "martyrdom"?
Al-Jubeir: No, none of the money went to Palestinian families to reward them for the suicide of their sons or daughters. If some money went to those families, it's to help them in their need. But it didn't go to encourage [violence]. For anyone to think that the life of a Palestinian is worth $5,000 is outrageous.
NJ: Would Saudi Arabia support a U.S. decision to go to war to remove Saddam Hussein from Iraq and would it allow the United States to use its Prince Sultan Air Base command center?
Al-Jubeir: We believe that the Iraq situation is an arms control problem and not a terrorism problem. The inspectors should be returned to Iraq and economic sanctions eased so the Iraqi people can enjoy a better standard of living.
Our view is the use of force at this time would not serve America's interests, or the interests of the region. Saudi Arabia is not a theater for individual initiatives designed for any purpose that does not serve our interests.


text:
News and updates from Oracle OpenWorld, JavaOne, MySQL Connect, Oracle Customer Experience Summit, Oracle PartnerNetwork Exchange, Java Embedded, and The Executive Edge.
Stay Connected
Recent Posts
- Building a Business Case for Your Customer Experience Initiatives
- Social Media Connections at Oracle OpenWorld
- The Power of Data: Author Michael Lewis Tells the Story Behind MoneyBall
- Unlock the Value of Your Data with Analytics
- Mad Men Beware. Seth Godin Is Here.
- The Experience Imperative: Your Customer Is Now in Charge
- Rocking at the Oracle Appreciation Event
- US Women's Gold Medal Soccer Players Draw a Crowd
- Oracle's 2012 Eco-Enterprise Awards Honor the Best and Greenest
- Even the Superheroes Are Doing Cloud Computing
- Oracle
- Personal


text:
Mark Teixeira's Wrist is Worse Than Expected
TAMPA, Fla.—Mark Teixeira returned to Yankee camp Sunday for the first time since injuring his wrist in the World Baseball Classic—and immediately disclosed that his injury is not quite what the Yankees had announced, stoking fears that he could be out far longer than the initial eight-to-10-week prognosis or hindered all year if he does return on time.
The team had initially announced that Teixeira had a strained wrist tendon, an injury that should heal with rest. But Teixeira, on his return to the Yankee complex, said that he actually has a partially torn tendon sheath, a more ominous injury that has felled several stars in the past few years.
"It's the tendon sheath that holds the tendon over," Teixeira said. "It's just the little covering that holds the tendon in place —the tendon will snap in and out if the sheath is gone. If that doesn't heal, then the tendon has a chance to get damaged, and you don't want that."
That's exactly what happened to Toronto star Jose Bautista last season. He injured the tendon sheath, tried to come back too early, and was shut down for the season with an unstable tendon. Teixeira is very aware of that danger.
His timetable for return has generally been pegged at early May, but if it turns out to be early June, Teixeira said, so be it. Teixeira wants to ensure enough time has passed that he doesn't have lingering problems.
"If I try to play too early from this, we could miss the whole season, and we don't want that," Teixeira said. "I don't know if it's the beginning of May, the end of May, the beginning of June. I don't know when it is, but we've got a whole bunch of season left, and the time that really matters is the playoffs."
Even the cautious approach won't knock out the problem completely, however—Red Sox slugger David Ortiz suffered the same injury in May 2008 and returned without surgery, but was still complaining of discomfort that winter.
The two-month timetable probably won't be enough time to heal fully, said Dr. Michael Hausman, an orthopedic surgeon and chief of the hand and elbow service at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai Medical Center in New York. The first baseman could return to action, but still feel the effects of the injury for much of the season.
"I think a total recovery, until you've plateaued and you're as good as you're going to be, that's more than a two- or three-month process. But I would think that he would be able to play, and play effectively, after about 10 weeks or so."
Teixeira's admission Sunday caused some confusion in the Yankee front office. After Teixeira disclosed that the problem was with the tendon sheath, Yankee general manager Brian Cashman called team doctor Christopher Ahmad to sort out the conflicting reports—and Ahmad confirmed that the sheath was in fact the issue.
The good news is that the underlying tendon is stable, Cashman said. When Bautista reached the point where both the tendon sheath was torn and the tendon was unstable, surgery became a necessity.
As Teixeira's tendon is unaffected, Cashman said that this new diagnosis doesn't change the timetable for recovery—it's still eight to 10 weeks.
But if the injury doesn't heal in that period, Teixeira could be a candidate for season-ending surgery; Cashman said there's a 25% to 30% likelihood that's the case.
The stable tendon offers a good chance that time and rest will be enough to fix the problem, Hausman said.
"If it's a partial tear where there's not enough structural damage where the tendon is actually popping out of its groove, then you're really just dealing with the issue of pain control… and allowing it to heal enough that it's not weakened and at risk for future rupture," Hausman said.
Write to Daniel Barbarisi at email@example.com


text:
Terry Anderson
Sat, 04/13/2013
As part of the Montana Ethic Project, PERC senior fellow Terry Anderson explains how free market environmentalism can help Montanans go into the future as the Treasure State and Big Sky Country all at one time.
Reed Watson
Tue, 05/17/2016
In a new video from ReasonTV, Reed Watson explains how government created an artificial shortage of our most essential resource.
Terry Anderson
Mon, 08/10/2015
On MSNBC's Sports Matters, Terry Anderson discusses hunting as a tool for conservation.
Terry Anderson, Donald Leal
Mon, 03/02/2015
On Monday, March 2nd, we celebrated Free Market Environmentalism for the Next Generation with a book launch at the Hoover Institution in Washington. Featured panelists were IJ's Chip Mellor, the Nature Conservancy's Kameran Onley, and the Wall Street Journal's Kim Strassel.
Terry Anderson
Sat, 02/28/2015
PERC's Terry Anderson spoke on the topic "If Hayek and Coase Were Environmentalists: Linking Economics and Ecology" at "The Ends of Capitalism," a conference hosted by the Classical Liberal Institute at NYU School of Law on February 26, 2015.
Holly Fretwell
Mon, 02/02/2015
Rancher and enviropreneur Jeff Lazslo forged partnerships with public and private funders to restore a huge wetland that now flourishes with fish, wildlife, and plants.
Frank Wolak
Mon, 12/08/2014
Q&A with 2014 Lone Mountain Fellow Frank Wolak.
Terry Anderson
Fri, 10/10/2014
Long before the EPA was a glint in anyone's eye, property rights were dealing with pollution issues. Watch as PERC's Terry Anderson discusses free market solutions to pollution and other environmental conflicts with John Stossel on Fox Business Network.
Jonathan Adler
Thu, 10/09/2014
We make the mistake sometimes of assuming that the way you clean the environment is just adding another regulation. Watch as PERC senior fellow Jonathan Adler discusses the confusion about pollution and why he is unhappy with the EPA's new rules with John Stossel on Fox Business Network.
Roger Meiners
Tue, 07/29/2014
In a new video, Roger Meiners shows why the common law may be the best remedy to resolve environmental conflicts – without bureaucratic trash to stink things up.


text:
7 Scientific Reasons a Zombie Outbreak Would Fail (Quickly)
Let's pretend for a moment that zombies are real (as if half of you weren't already daydreaming about that very thing). Have you noticed how most zombie movies take place only after the apocalypse is in full-swing? By the time we join our survivors, the military and government are already wiped out, and none of the streets are safe.
There's a reason the movie starts there, and not earlier. It's because the early part, where we go from one zombie to millions, doesn't make any sense. If you let the creeping buzzkill of logic into the zombie party, you realize the zombies would all be re-dead long before you even got a chance to fire up that chainsaw motorcycle you've been working on. Why?
#7. They Have Too Many Natural Predators
Do you know why we, as humans, are at the top of the current food chain? Not because we're hard to kill (well, with the exception of Steven Seagal). We're not; we're little more than tasty flesh bags waiting for an errant horn or claw to spill our guts like a meat pinata. No, we're on top simply because we are so absurdly good at killing things ourselves. A good offense, as they say, is the best de-LOOK THERE'S A DUCK! MURDER IT!
We are simply too smart and too well-armed for any wild animal to hunt. Now consider the poor zombie. It lacks every single advantage that has kept humanity from being eaten to extinction. It wanders around in the open, it can't use weapons, it can't think or use strategy. It doesn't even have the sense of self preservation to run and hide when it's in danger. And, it's made entirely out of food. It's easy prey for any animal that wants it.
If you're saying, "Sure, but it's not like my city is full of bears that can come eat all the zombies," you need to think smaller. Insects are a major pain in the ass for living humans, and in some cases, being able to swat away flies and having an immune system is the only thing keeping us from having our eyes and tongues eaten out by maggots. Zombies in any part of the world with a fly problem are going to be swarming with maggots in short order, meaning that most of their soft tissues will be infested, and their eyes will be very quickly useless.
Not so disgusting now, are they? OK, yeah, but show a little respect.
We'll scale up a bit: In America alone, we have bears, wolves, coyotes and cougars, all of which can put well-armed, thinking, fast-moving humans on the menu, if the conditions are right. To most predators, the "right conditions" are when the animal is weak or infirm, or otherwise generally unable to defend themselves, like a walking corpse. Hell, just think of the millions of stray dogs out there who'll quickly learn that zombies are an easy meal.
Now imagine zombie hordes wandering Africa. Between lions and cape buffalo (and hippos, and rhinos, and elephants), we'd finally have a disease that Africa is better suited than the rest of the world to defend itself against.
#6. They Can't Take the Heat
It's generally accepted by zombie experts that they're going to continue to rot, even as they shamble around the streets. What the movies fail to convey, however, is the gruesome yet strangely hilarious effect the hot sun has on a rotting corpse.
The first concern is putrefaction. Thanks to the plethora of bacteria we use in our colon for digesting plant matter, called gut flora, our bodies are ripe for decay the second our heart stops. Since heat speeds the growth of bacteria (which are plenty happy to start feasting on you once your immune system is no longer a concern) the zombie's got a looming expiration date the very second it turns.
Dead bodies bloat because of the gases created by the bacteria, meaning that in warmer areas even Abercrombie Zombies are going to start getting fat in the first few days. After a few weeks of this, the nasty, bloated zombie army is going to start doing something that is simultaneously the most awesome and disturbing thing a zombie can do: they will start exploding (CAUTION! Pictures!). The warm, moist conditions in the tropical and subtropical parts of the world (or even just summer in the temperate parts) speeds this condition, meaning a July zombie outbreak pretty much anywhere would be over in a few weeks just by virtue of the rampaging monsters bursting like rancid meat balloons.
At the other end of the heat spectrum is dry heat. If you're in Phoenix or the Sahara when the apocalypse hits, the zombies might begin to mummify in the blazing sun and heat. While the normal symptoms of dehydration are not a concern for a zombie, there is the problem of desiccation. With no reasonable means of replenishing the water in their cells, zombies walking around in the Texas heat all day are going to suffer cell damage due to direct sun exposure to their skin, and thanks to the drying effect wind has, the Southwestern dead will stumble around more and more ineffectively until, at some point, they simply drop and wait for the scavengers to come pick them up for the annual Slim Jim harvest.
So they'd better hope the outbreak happens during the winter, right? Well...
#5. They Can't Handle the Cold
Zombies are dead meat. No arguing that; it's their one defining characteristic. But everybody focuses on that "dead" part like it's such a huge deal. They often forget about the "meat." Do you know what else is dead meat? Steak, hamburger, possibly even that red grease mush inside of Taco Bell food.
Look at it.
When flesh is alive, it's got all sorts of defense systems to keep it that way. When it's dead, you have to throw it away in about a week even if you seal it up in plastic and keep it at a carefully modulated temperature. Now, your first inclination may be to think of cold as dead meat's friend, after all, the surest way to defeat that week-long deadline is to freeze steak, keeping it fresh for months. But don't forget: Unregulated cold does awful shit to formerly living things. If you live far enough north, the zombie apocalypse will probably work itself out the first time it tries to go outside. The first zombie-killer is the simple fact that the human body is mostly water, and water freezes. Once the temperature drops to freezing (or near it with a high wind chill), zombies will become significantly more rigid.
No word on them transforming into snow monsters.
After enough exposure, a dead body is going to be frozen solid and not chasing down any screaming victims, no matter how delicious and Rascal Scooter-bound they might be. It's also safe to assume that zombies wandering around in a wintry wonderland are not going to be wrapped air-tight in plastic like we do with food, so freezer burn becomes an issue. Seriously. The same thing that ruins your ice cream also ruins the Undead Onslaught. The freezing of the flesh at night, combined with partial thaw during warmer days, then refreezing again sets up the perfect conditions for the onset of freezer burn, which results in the cells dehydrating as water evaporates, even when frozen solid. Freezer burned meat isn't just dead, it's destroyed.
#4. Biting is a Terrible Way to Spread a Disease
Hey, remember that time when that dog got rabies, and then a day later, every single other dog on the continent had it, except for a small band of survivors huddled in a basement? No? That never happened?
Nearly all of the zombie movies agree on one thing: They reproduce like a disease, one that spreads via a bite from the infected (like they have a virus carried by zombie saliva or whatever). But this also means their spread should be subject to the same rules of a normal epidemic, and biting is a shitty way to get an epidemic going.
The successful diseases have some really clever way to invisibly spread from victim to victim. The flu has killed tens of millions because it floats right through the air, the black plague was spread by fleas, etc. Not a single one of them requires the infected to get within biting distance to spread their infection. Sure, sexually transmitted diseases like AIDS work that way, but that's only because the infected can pass for the uninfected. Nobody is going to be having sex with a zombie.
Though Google Image Search does turn up a large volume of zombie porn
But let's say there is an outbreak, like if one zombie was able to bite 30 people in the crowd at an Insane Clown Posse concert before they figured out it wasn't part of the show. It's not like mankind is just utterly confused about what to do when an infection breaks out. In America you have the Center for Disease Control (CDC,) who don't tend to fuck around. Seriously, it's on their business cards.
Remember the SARS outbreak? That originated in China. The CDC and the World Health Organization put the clamps down on international travel the second it was found to have spread to North America. Flights were grounded, travel between borders was locked tight and only 43 people on the entire continent died.
No one was overlooked.
With zombieism, they don't even have to solve the mystery about how it's transmitted. It's that guy biting people. Shoot him in the head.


text:
Windows File Sharing and SharePoint Protocols Plugfest 2011
- Redmond, Washington
- June 20 - 24, 2011
- Speakers at Windows File Sharing and SharePoint Protocols Plugfest 2011
The Office and Windows Interoperability Teams hosted an Open Specifications Plugfest event
that covered the SharePoint front-end and Windows File Sharing protocols and interoperability test tools. Presentations were delivered by Microsoft subject matter experts and members of the SharePoint & Windows product teams. The event was held in Redmond on the Microsoft campus for developers implementing the open specifications.
- List
- Top Rated
- Most Viewed
- All


text:
Friday, 12 November 2010
Dramatic study shows participants are affected by psychological phenomena from the future
Rather than having the students read each others' minds or wear sliced ping-pong balls over their eyes, Daryl Bem has taken the unusual, yet elegantly simple, approach of testing a raft of classic psychological phenomena, backwards.
Take priming - the effect whereby a subliminal (i.e. too fast for conscious detection) presentation of a word or concept speeds subsequent reaction times for recognition of a related stimulus. Bem turned this around by having participants categorise pictures as negative or positive and then presenting them subliminally with a negative or positive word. That is, the primes came afterwards. Students were quicker, by an average of 16.5ms, to categorise negative pictures as negative when they were followed by a negative subliminal word (e.g. 'threatening'), almost as if that word were acting as a prime working backwards in time.
If psi abilities have really evolved, it makes sense that they should confer survival advantages by helping us find mates and avoid danger. In another experiment Bem had dozens of undergrads guess which set of curtains in a pair on a computer screen was concealing an erotic picture. Participants were accurate on 53.1 per cent of trials, compared with the 50 per cent accuracy you'd expect if they were simply guessing. This accuracy was increased to 57 per cent among students who scored higher on a measure of thrill-seeking. By contrast, no such psi effects were observed for neutral stimuli.
In another experiment participants looked at successive pairs of neutral mirror images and chose their favourite - the left or right. After each pair, an unpleasant picture was flashed subliminally on one side or the other. You guessed it, participants tended to favour the mirror image on the side of the screen opposite to where an unpleasant picture was about to appear.
The examples keep coming. The mere exposure effect is when subliminal presentation of a particular object, word or symbol causes us to favour that target afterwards. Bem turned this backwards so that participants chose between pairs of negative pictures, and then just one of them was flashed subliminally several times. Female participants tended to favour the negative images that went on to be flashed subliminally, as if the mere exposure effect were working backwards through time.
This backward mere exposure effect didn't work for male undergrads, perhaps because the images weren't arousing enough, so Bem replicated the experiment using more extreme negative images and erotic images. This time a 'backwards' mere exposure effect was found with men for unpleasant images. For positive imagery, mere exposure traditionally has a negative effect, as the stimuli are made to become more boring. Bem showed this effect could also happen from the future. Presented with pairs of erotic images, male undergrads showed less favour for the images that went on to be flashed subliminally multiple times. It's as if the participants knew which images were going to become boring before they had.
Finally, we all know that practice improves learning. Bem tested students' memory for word lists and then had them engage in extensive practice (e.g. typing out) for some of the words but not others. His finding? That memory performance was superior for words that the students went on to practice afterwards - a kind of reverse learning effect whereby your memory is improved now based on study you do later.
These reverse effects seem bizarre but they are backed up by some rigorous methodology. For example, Bem used two types of randomisation for the stimuli - one that's based on computer algorithms, which produce a kind of pseudo-randomisation in the sense that a given distribution of stimuli is decided in advance. And another form of randomisation based on hardware that produces true randomisation that unfolds over time as an experiment plays out. Also throughout his paper, Bem uses multiple forms of simple statistical test and he reports results for each, thus demonstrating that he hasn't simply cherry picked the approach that produces the right result. Across all nine experiments the mean effect size for the psi effects was 0.22 - this is small, but noteworthy given the nature of the results.
So what's going on? Bem doesn't proffer too many answers although he argues that his psi phenomena vary with subject variables, just like mainstream psychological effects do. For example, the phenomena were nearly always exaggerated in the more extravert, thrill-seeking participants. From a physics perspective, he believes the explanations may lie in quantum effects. 'Those who follow contemporary developments in modern physics ... will be aware that several features of quantum phenomena are themselves incompatible with our everyday conception of physical reality,' Bem argues. 'Many psi researchers see sufficiently compelling parallels between these phenomena and characteristics of psi to warrant considering them as potential candidates for theories of psi.'
Daryl Bem (2010). Feeling the future: Experimental evidence for anomalous retroactive influences on cognition and affect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. In Press PDF.
Post written by Christian Jarrett (@psych_writer) for the BPS Research Digest.
UPDATE, plucked from the comments:
Failures to replicate this study: 1, 2, 3
A successful replication.
A criticism of the stats methods used.
A flaw in the methodology.
A registry of replication attempts.
46 comments:
53% isn't that far off from 50%, especially for a sample size of 1000. Would you be surprised if a coin toss turned up 53% heads after 1000 trials?ReplyDelete
I find this all very dubious. The quick and dirty reference to quantum physics at the end really kills it.
I appreciate that the BPS blog doesn't discriminate on the types of studies it publishes but there is a risk of discrediting other fields of psychology if a report like this shows up on the same playing field.
Hi Trumpeting, thanks for your comments. I should point out that this research is published in a mainstream, respected journal of the American Psychological Association. The stats appear sound. The discussion of quantum physics in the paper is far more in-depth than the brief mention in my report.ReplyDelete
Hi Rift, My opinion is that it's a great study. Rigorously conducted. Eloquently written (provides great intro to the field). But this isn't proof of psi, far from it. Needs to be replicated. I like how Bem has used standard psychological tasks as a way to explore psi. Makes it easier for other labs to try to replicate.ReplyDelete
- Anonymous8:26 pm
I don't think it's enough to dismiss it because it's only a 3% difference. We deal with small effects all the time in psychology, and it appears this study has the statistical power to back it up.
It's just a matter of seeing if the results replicate across studies.
I do agree the part that doesn't involve data (i.e., the evolutionary explanation and quantum physics) sounds kind of like post-hoc rationalizing to me.
I downloaded this yesterday and have started reading it. It does appear that the study was rigorously conducted. We will have to see if it can be replicated and generalized. I am hoping not, really, since I prefer a universe in which cause precedes effect.ReplyDelete
It sounds like a remarkable set of studies, but, I'll wait on the independent replication.ReplyDelete
One of the tasks, the retroactive practice effect for word stimuli, would be especially easy to replicate since it doesn't require any programming - beyond a good random-number generator - just pen & paper.
A fairly detailed analysis of the statistical problems is here.ReplyDelete
At least one failure to replicate has already surfaced.
Plus Bem is renowned for one very telling quote:
"There are two possible articles you can write: (1) the article you planned to write when you designed your study or (2) the article that makes the most sense now that you have seen the results. They are rarely the same, and the correct answer is (2)." (Bem, 2003, pp. 171-172)
Grad student in social psych here. My impression was the same as Christian's: I do not accept psi and think more evidence is needed, but Bem does a heckuva job writing a convincing article. He takes well-known psychological effects and tweaks them in simple but compelling ways. Bem knows how to write in a way that speaks to psychologists, that is for sure.ReplyDelete
Andrew, I know exactly what you mean about Bem's writing philosophy. I think it makes for more interesting papers but I would also like to see a replication.
One philosophical problem is that he has not demonstrated a plausible mechanism for his effects. The paper's conclusions rest on him ruling out many alternative explanations, supposedly leaving "psi" as the only remaining explanation, but he has not provided positive evidence for why his effects are occurring.
The first two studies were weaker, but I found the memory and mere exposure studies especially plausible.
@ trumpeting:ReplyDelete
53% is huge within a sample of 1.000. and, like 88% in a sample of 1.000, it can be chance. the chances are pretty small, though.
the quantum physics excuse is not a very good one for these kind of data.
and without going too much into the details of the paper itself: assumed the data are correct (which i doubt, for a start), it's probably some kind of instructional bias effect.
Hi AndrewReplyDelete
The failed replication that you cite was conducted via an online survey (according to New Scientist), so hardly a sound test. The paper on the stats problems sounds interesting - thanks for flagging that up. I note however that it appears to be a criticism on the use of stats in psychology in general, not just by Bem. In other words, he used stats that would normally be considered sound.
Which would be fine, except for the fact that psychologists have been using p values badly for a long time. I got taught GLM stats in grad school (because you have to have ANOVAs to publish) by a professor who's spent a lot of time recently advocating for Bayesian methods in analysis; he knew GLM was problematic but we have to know how to do what the journals expect (and reviewers do freak out at non-standard analyses).ReplyDelete
The study I mentioned did happen online, which is obviously a difference. But there's plenty of research showing that, with care, running studies online can be fine, and Bem's answer is simply that you lose total control over the study this way.
This review mentions two more failures to replicate here and here.
Kurt, re mechanism: that review also mentions a quote from Bem saying it's "absurd" that he should be expected to come up with a theory to explain his data. He's so entirely incorrect about that it's not funny.
re: failed replications.ReplyDelete
I fail to replicate well-established effects all the time. What I would LOVE to see is somebody who identifies a moderating factor that can show why Bem's studies worked and properly controlled studies don't work. Something like, "The effects only occur when participants are told the study is about psi and when the RA believes in psi. When participants are ignorant and the RA is skeptical the studies don't work." And they would actually randomly assign people to informed/believer or ignorant/skeptical conditions.
re: mechanism.
I think there can be a place for initial publications (even in JPSP) where a novel phenomenon is presented, without necessarily showing what is happening. For example, in his early priming studies Bargh didn't have a mechanism. (In fact, they kind of argue against any psychological mechanism, that there is a direct prime-to-behaviour-link.) If the evidence for the effect is relatively solid, it should be published in order to provoke more work in that area.
Here though, the effect is ridiculously implausible a priori. So I agree that a mechanism would help us to confirm the effect because we would know WHY it's happening, instead of leaving us with the suspicion that it's just some sort of unidentified, uncontrolled third variable.
- Anonymous5:16 pm
From personal practice of lot of weird things (shamanisn, mediumnity, I-Ching, etc...) I can tell you there are a lot of "anomalous" experiences going on, however they are of course difficult to tell apart from self-delusion, thus it is a good thing that well designed studies begin to investigate these "anomalies".ReplyDelete
It would be very damageable if these studies were to be abandonned under the pressure of "conformity" and it is quite commendable to Bem to dare dabble in such perilous topics.
I am not surprised by the weakness of the effects (53-57%) the psi effects are notoriously unreliable but they seem undeniable in the long run when you experience them directly and not thru hearsay.
As for the mechanism(s) involved, THIS is the real challenge, because, if you know about sensitivity to initial conditions you quickly realize that prediction is impossible (the famous "weather problem"), so, if some prediction, even imperfect (3% boost), is actually occurring this means that some information escapes the mangling of the chaotic attractors.
An interesting physics problem isn't it?
So good luck with the "why" question...
An internet-based failure to replicate is still a failure to replicate if the methods are solid.ReplyDelete
Also, note that we already have an enormous literature on responses to stimuli, and they come after the stimuli, not before. Every EEG study of event-related potentials or even more simply, every study of the acoustic startle response, is (implicitly) a test for psi. I have done the acoustic startle on some 100 British people and none of them were psychic.
- kat5:34 am
The Neuroskeptic makes a very interesting point in that we already have a lot of data from stimulus-response experiments and nobody's noticed these sorts of effects before. I would imagine it would be fairly easy to look at some random sets of experimental data and scrutinize them for retroactive effects.ReplyDelete
It would be interesting to see if these sorts of effects turn up in other species-- do chimpanzees, capuchins, pigeons, rats, etc. demonstrate retroactive stimulus response? If there's no evidence for such in non-human animals I would become a lot more suspicious (and I'm already suspicious!) of any supposed "psi" explanation of the Bem experiment/any replications thereof.
All in all this is very strange and like everyone else I'm waiting for a robust and consistent effect to be demonstrated through replication.
Hi kat - in bem's intro he claims similar effects have been found in two animal studiesReplyDelete
- Anonymous6:59 pm
The Neuroskeptic makes a very interesting point in that we already have a lot of data from stimulus-response experiments and nobody's noticed these sorts of effects before.ReplyDelete
No, this is NOT an "interesting point".
Why would studies designed to test responses coming after the stimuli show any kind of retroactive effects while such effects are so weak and require very stringent methodology to be reliably detected?
This is just ordinary prejudice at work, probably boosted by the same kind of anguish as shown above by John Taylor: the sky is falling, the sky is falling :-)
Here is a critical analysis of bem's work:ReplyDelete
We're all scientists here, right? So, either the results are a correct explanation of the phenomena or not.ReplyDelete
If they are, then either
-- the study is biased (there is something surfacing); or
-- we have psi powers
If they are not, i.e. the results do NOT describe a causality link, then the methodology has a flaw.
The latter is a very bad situation: if the methodology is "standard" and "accepted", then this study proves that the statistical framework/experimental setup/method is flawed and it would render void all studies conducted with the same method.
To use logic:
A implies B
the implication is true if and only if A is true AND B is true (this is the case where we all have psi powers).
If A is true and B is false, then the study is biased.
But it could be also that A is false; in this case it does not matter what B yields to, because the implication is false too (this is the latter case).
I am not saying we definitly have psi powers or not; I am just saying that a hypothesis is held to be valid until disproved. And this requires more testing and more replication before it becomes a 'theory'.
- kat5:06 am
"Why would studies designed to test responses coming after the stimuli show any kind of retroactive effects while such effects are so weak and require very stringent methodology to be reliably detected?
This is just ordinary prejudice at work, probably boosted by the same kind of anguish as shown above by John Taylor: the sky is falling, the sky is falling :-)"
My statement did not come from any "prejudice" against psi. What I meant is that in a experiment, let's say, where you have repeated presentation of a stimulus, you could easily look at the raw data for any anomalous anticipation of the next presentation. Many experiments are set up with repeated trials and you could look at the results from the first trial, for example, to see if the subject's responses show retroactive effects from what is presented in the second trial.
Yes, these effects are small, but Bem's point is that they are detectable using standard statistical tools and a relatively simple experimental set-up (Bem's methods aren't unusually "stringent" except for his concerns about clairvoyance vs. premonition and the randomness of his random number generators). Given the absolutely huge number of these sorts of studies that have been conducted I would have thought that somebody would have seen this sort of effect before somewhere. It is possible that no one's bothered to look; this is why I think it would be interesting to actually analyze some subset of the existing data (experiments that were conducted in a way such that they would plausibly show influence from the future) to see if these retroactive effects pop up in more mundane situations.
I actually think this is important because if they are detectable in regular stimulus-response situations, it presents an extremely baffling extra variable to account for. How are we supposed to control for effects-- that we don't even understand yet!-- from the future? How does this alter our understanding of previous experiments that weren't controlled for future influence? If it is actually the case that there is such a thing as retroactive influence (regardless of its cause) this changes the way we have to design experiments and analyze data. This means lengthening buffering times, being extra careful about order of presentation and repetition of stimuli, etc.
I don't believe in psi, but that is because until I saw this article I had no evidence (personal or scientific) for it. I still don't believe in psi, but I am definitely interested in seeing where this line of research goes. I could yet change my mind.
- Anonymous6:56 am
If it is actually the case that there is such a thing as retroactive influence (regardless of its cause) this changes the way we have to design experiments and analyze data.ReplyDelete
That will be difficult to swallow for many (the sky is falling..) but this is just an extra variable to care about, don't we already have something akin to that with double blind experiments:
Why is it that the experimenter has to be in the dark?
Is he so dishonest (consciously or unconsciously) that he could not refrain from cheating?
This cannot possibly be a placebo effect or can it be?
That is, in some cases, he could actually alter the results by some psi effects.
I am thinking here of Jacques Benveniste whom I personally met, who was absolutely honest up to the point of screwing his own career (not "confessing" nor recanting) and whose water memory theory was totally bogus while his experiments did work.
- Anonymous10:07 am
I dunno if statistician Cosma Shalizi already read about this study but he definitely doesn't like it :-D
OTOH Cosma Shalizi is under the "spell" of a very heavy political/philosophical bias: he even denies the existence of intelligence!
Which for someone like him is pretty baffling.
- Jon Reston11:20 pm
Summary of my views here: http://www.assumptions-violated.com/ReplyDelete
The confusion between exploratory and confirmatory analyses is problematic, and the fact that the statistical errors made are common in psychology does nothing to exonerate this case.
Generally well reported paper though, plenty of detail so that we can draw our own conclusions and attempt meaningful replications. Nice to see this sort of thing published, even if it serves as nothing more than a dos and don'ts example for research methods courses.
We have to see how attempted replications (using confirmatory analyses) turn out before we draw any concrete conclusions, of course...
- Anonymous1:35 pm
Sorry was meaning that it is impossible to control the extent to which study participants (particularly undergraduates...) talk to each other about the experiments they have participated in.ReplyDelete
Anyone who has run behavioural studies that involve concealing the purpose of the experiment until the debrief will know all about this problem...
For this study I can't immediately see what specific pieces of information they may have (wittingly or unwittingly) passed on to other participants. However it's another factor that is likely to be having at least some influence (and this may be why the replication conducted over the web may have failed to find the same results?)
- Anonymous3:14 am
If precognition exists, it would be exploited for financial gain the second anyone discovered it. This has not occurred, therefore it does not exist.ReplyDelete
Please don't tell me it has been used for financial gain, because a secret like that ain't staying secret -- especially if Bem's results show precognition is fairly common.
- Anonymous11:06 am
If precognition exists, it would be exploited for financial gain the second anyone discovered it. This has not occurred, therefore it does not exist.ReplyDelete
Black and white thinking, it would be so if precognition were reliable and it is not according to "common" statistical tests, which may be conceptually ill designed (not catching all significant clues).
I personally know someone who got banned from gambling because he was "too successful" playing Baccarat making a living of it, and he is not able describe any method he used.
- Anonymous11:02 pm
The problem with Bem's research is not the quality of the protocols, or even the sample size alone. He has done a great service in this respect. It's suffers from the fact that the effects were derived after the fact, as in exploratory. The more effects being tested the larger the sample size has to be to demonstrate said effect. In open ended after the fact derived effects, it means very little.ReplyDelete
Certainly the excellent protocols should be repeated, with predefined effects to test. Any other effects, besides what is preselected for testing doesn't count. Do a separate test for them. No multiple test per dataset. If the effects remain, then skeptics such as myself will have to put our thinking caps back on. At present, no such evidence exist at present. I look forward to such real test.
- Anonymous6:04 am
Any other effects, besides what is preselected for testing doesn't count.ReplyDelete
This is the point, you blind yourself to anything you are not already expecting.
Since no one has any idea about a possible mechanism (see comments above), how will you design the protocol, how will you choose what to test?
If you acted like this in everyday life you would be "removed from the gene pool" pretty quickly.
@Christian: I appreciate your direct feedback and apologize for being a knee-jerk skeptic. A friend pointed out the extremely low probability of the null hypothesis which gave me a better grasp of how the results are intriguing.ReplyDelete
Looking forward to the studies that attempt to reproduce the effect.
- Anonymous5:16 pm
Any other effects, besides what is preselected for testing doesn't count.ReplyDelete
This is the point, you blind yourself to anything you are not already expecting.
Since no one has any idea of the possible mechanism (see above comments...), how will you design the protocol? How will choose what to test?
If you acted like this in everyday life you would be "removed from the gene pool" pretty quickly.
- Anonymous4:23 pm
I would look into the software used to present the stimuli. I have programmed many reaction time experiments and can start to tell which stimulus will be next (even when randomized) after running it 50 or so times.ReplyDelete
I believe this is from variable load times for pictures and the amount of memory needed to run different experimental conditions. A subtle difference will be produced when code needs to execute just a picture vs. a picture followed by the word "threatening"
The fact that "thill seekers" are more prone to the effect suggests some kind of attention effect, meaning these people more sensitive to barely perceptible differences in onset times.
I think this is the most plausible explanation.
- dowder5:21 pm
As an undergrad I "volunteered" to see how long I could hold my arm in a bath of ice. Then I had to sit in the waiting room before trying a second time. In the waiting room, the next subject asked me what the study was about. I sang like a canary. The "next subject" was, of course, in on the study. And that was the experiment, not the ice bath. Undergrads talk, is right... I'm just sayin'...ReplyDelete
- Anonymous7:22 am
I think this is the most plausible explanation.ReplyDelete
I do believe too that this is one plausible explanation among many, even horses can do that.
But how many covert channels are there to carry information from the future to the present?
As I said above in one of the early comments the truly interesting problem is: does some information survives the sensitivity to initial conditions which prevents any long term prediction?
Or, more modestly, for which time span is (approximate) prediction possible via means we don't yet know of?
Thanks Anonymous at 1:14pm, I've added a link to the foot of the blog post.ReplyDelete
- psi_des4:03 am
Just a few notes.ReplyDelete
It's clear that Bem doesn't claim the mechanism to be related to quantum entanglement effects. The use of quantum entanglement in his arguments are merely to show that something just as incredible already happens so maybe we shouldn't consider this to be too impossible.
Also, a failure of a couple of replications is to be expected but I do believe that withing the next 10 years this paper would have changed the way we look at the world. This sort of research has been going on for quite a while but usually the experimental design doesn't survive the vicious attacks of skeptics, let alone debunkers. What Bem has done here is truly amazing and extremely brave.
- Anonymous3:31 pm
The 53% isn't statistically significant. The study used 100 people (experiment 1), and you would have needed 60% to be on the 1-sigma boundary. Even for a thousand people, you would need 53.3% for it to be on the 1-sigma boundary, regardless of the 3-sigma boundary that most fields of science require observations to be on. The only way 53% would have been significant would be if 10,000 people were used in the experiment.ReplyDelete
Same criticism for the second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth.. oh, and ninth. Wait, that's all the experiments conducted. None of them are statistically significant? How odd!
Oh, and they discarded data from the third experiment. You NEVER do that in science, especially in a psychology experiment where perception is key. They discarded data from people who viewed the wrong picture as pleasant or unpleasant when the person was then told to pick a picture based on their perceptions. Why? I can only assume that the data was discarded because it did not fit the pattern.
All in all, results and analysis weren't great, sample size in each experiment doesn't merit statistically significant observations, and the results don't merit the "dramatic" conclusions he's drawn. On the other hand, methodology seems good.
I have to admit that I haven't looked at the report in detail, but this sounds a lot like some 'scientific' article from the HearthMath institute that was pretty easy to debunk: http://maurits.wordpress.com/2006/01/23/can-your-hart-predict-the-future/ My simulation also ended up at about 54 %, which is pretty close to the number mentioned here.ReplyDelete


text: Yeah baby! Here is one of my favorite characters that I sort of grew up watching. His name is Zim and he tries to be one mean villain. I know so many Invader Zim fans are going to flip over this tutorial on "how to draw Zim easy", step by step. How could you not want to draw Zim, I mean look at him. He is sly, stylish, sassy, and sneaky. Even though he tries to have a cold heart, Zim will often show his softer side. I wanted Zim have his typical expression on his face for authentic purposes only. Another words, I want you guys to be like "Now that is Zim"!. Anyways, enjoy drawing Zim and I will enjoy uploading more tutorials for you all. Peace out people and like always people, enjoy!


text:
I know I can open multiple files found in a dir like so:
find -name *.foo -xargs <command> {} \;
This works, but when trying to open a bunch of textfiles in gedit at the same time, it opens them successively (when one files is closed, the next one is opened).
I would like to open all of those files at the same time. How can I achieve this?


text:
"You are not a royal court"
Picking up on a theme from Saturday's address to the College of Cardinals, Pope Francis at Sunday's Mass in St. Peter's Basilica had some even stronger words for what many call the "princes of the church." Here is my story on the Mass, and some choice bits from the homily:
We do not aim to assert ourselves; we oppose arrogance with meekness; we forget the humiliations that we have endured. May we always allow ourselves to be guided by the Spirit of Christ, who sacrificed himself on the Cross so that we could be "channels" through which his charity might flow. This is the attitude of a Cardinal, this must be how he acts. A Cardinal – I say this especially to you – enters the Church of Rome, my brothers, not a royal court. May all of us avoid, and help others to avoid, habits and ways of acting typical of a court: intrigue, gossip, cliques, favouritism and partiality.
The Holy Spirit also speaks to us today through the words of Saint Paul: "You are God's temple … God's temple is holy, and that temple you are" (1 Cor 3:16-17). In this temple, which we are, an existential liturgy is being celebrated: that of goodness, forgiveness, service; in a word, the liturgy of love. This temple of ours is defiled if we neglect our duties towards our neighbour. Whenever the least of our brothers and sisters finds a place in our hearts, it is God himself who finds a place there. When that brother or sister is shut out, it is God himself who is not being welcomed. A heart without love is like a deconsecrated church, a building withdrawn from God's service and given over to another use.
My brother Cardinals, Jesus did not come to teach us good manners, how to behave well at the table! To do that, he would not have had to come down from heaven and die on the Cross. Christ came to save us, to show us the way, the only way out of the quicksand of sin, and this way of holiness is mercy, that mercy which he has shown, and daily continues to show, to us. To be a saint is not a luxury. It is necessary for the salvation of the world.
About the Author
David Gibson is a national reporter for Religion News Service and author of The Coming Catholic Church (HarperOne) and The Rule of Benedict (HarperOne). He blogs at dotCommonweal.
17 comments
- All
- Editor Featured
Very good excerpts and I agree entirely with the segments you have put in boldface. These are, for sure, the "hard sayings". From the address to the evangelicals posted by Rita, to this address today, I must confess to being "stun by degrees" (to borrow a phrase from Emily Dickinson) by this man.
Your breath has time to straighten,
Your brain to bubble cool, --
Deals one imperial thunderbolt
That scalps your naked soul
Thanks for the fine article, David. I went searching yesterday to find something on the consistory and your article came up first as, of course, it should have.
"Quicksand of sin"....what a terrifying image... don't know if it has a previous usage, but it's so evocative
"Jesus did not come to terach us food manners..." -- but maybe on how to bea better host or guest...
"To be a saint is not a luxury..." -- reframes sanctity for those of us who don't feel too luxurious...
"You are not a royal court."
Brave words from Papa Francesco, for sure. I guess he wasn't impressed with all those yards and yards of crimson and magenta. The politics within the hierarchy and along the Tiber are getting really interesting these days.
What political game is Francesco playing? Is all this public posturing about hierarchs having the "smell of the sheep" on them just a political gambit to ultimately further isolate the most reactionary elements of the hierarchy?
[I do think that having these Synods rather than calling Councils is the preferred, better way to deal with these hierarchy issues. As it stands now, this pathetic hierarchy is in no shape for a Council - definitely not ready for prime time!]
Or, is Francesco an inveterate conservative after all, intent on just putting lipstick on the pig of the clerical culture of the church?
How long can Francesco go on avoiding dealing with the elephants under the carpet: the hierarchs' and priests' complicity in the rape and sodomy of children worldwide; AND, the malignant cancer of celibate clericalism and misogyny on the Body of Christ? How long, O Lord?!?
Is Francesco desperately trying to maneuver his calcified brother hierarchs into making choices that otherwise they would most naturally avoid? Many of these choices remain for many of their number what the hierarchs have always consider subversive?
I have the distinct feeling that Francesco has exhausted most, if not all, the degrees of political freedom that have so far been afforded to him during this his first year of the papacy by the very cardinals who elected him pope with the promise of keeping the conceit of their hegemony of power going. We're talking massive public relations Roman-style.
Is Francesco really taking the hierarchs to the edge leading the lemming hierarchs off the cliff? The celibate hierarchy and priesthood in general is on life-support around the world. Those pesky sheeple in the pews just refuse to encourage and consign their sons to lives of sorrow and pain as celibate priests in a dying church - funny how those marrieds want their children to be happy and loving!
Maybe Francesco has decided to preside over the funeral mass and burial of the Catholic hierarchy? Leaving to his successor(s) the task of picking-up the pieces at a later time? It is said that popes and hierarchs think in terms of centuries, not months and years.
Or maybe I'm just engaging in wishful thinking? Time will tell. Very interesting times for the Catholic hierarchy ... This is getting exciting: we may be witnesses to a real turning of the wheel of history for the church?
Jim Jenkins, those of us who are old enough to remember Vatican II (I was in high school) thought then that we were witnessing a "real turning of the wheel of history for the church". I watch with interest - but I will not hold my breath that any of the truly needed reforms (to clericalism, a centuries overdue end to patriarchy and misogny, etc) will take place. There are too many who are too vested in maintaining the status quo.
@ Anne Chapman: Agreed.
My sainted sixth-grade teacher, Sister Mary Adelaide, had somehow purloined draft copies of the documents of Vatican2 that had started to circulate out from Rome. We had daily readings from them just after our noon recess. Many times after the reading she would turn to the class and pronounce: "Never confuse the Church for the Christ!"
The problem became that the "real turning of the wheel of history for the church" continued turning, but for especially for those forces who had a vested interest in restoration, not reform and renewal. There are real political reasons why both Wojtyla and Ratzinger were elected pope in tandem.
Some years ago I had a conversation with a "Pope John bishop" who had just returned from a big papal event in Rome. I asked him what was his general reaction and take-away. He said without hesitation: "Our best hope is that someday they'll all be dead."
Maybe the Holy Spirit is working overtime these days of a Franciscan papacy to make that sentiment a reality?
At the risk of being, as the British say, cheeky, one wonders how Cardinal Burke reacted to this talk by Pope Francis...
Or is this just one more case of ….
Words, glorious words!
What wouldn't we give for
That extra bit more --
That's all that we live for
Why should we be fated to
Do nothing but brood
On words,
Magical words,
Wonderful words,
Marvelous words,
Fabulous words.
Yes, I'm getting impatient. Symbolism that is not manifested in ACTIONS starts to get very old, very quickly.
Perhaps we should keep in mind that change usually takes forty to fifty years to take a solid hold. We might also be aware that many of the Vatican II changes have taken effect. The drastic change in the liturgy to the vernacular, the three year cycle, the reestablishment of the Liturgy of the Word., the offering of the Cup to all. etc.So Papa Francesco as the right person also has timing on his side.
How refreshing these words of Francis. It is the gospel and a true prophet is among us. For so many years some in the church mistakenly thought that perfection was conforming to meticulous rules. Perfection is in the Beatitudes. As Francis said it is not an option.
I appreciate your impatience, Jim McCrea. On the other hand, as a true outsider, I'd argue that Pope Francis needed to get his arms around the process and to some extent at least, establish his credibility outside the Vatican before he could make too many changes. It is difficult to change the Vatican finance system as he just did, unless you know how the current one works. That's just one example. And if you don't think there were, and are some "princes of the Church" just spending every waking moment trying to figure out a way to undercut this Pope, I think you're dreaming. Other changes, like an archbishop telling the CDF that "it isn't always black and white" never happened, never would happen, under John Paul II and Benedict. I'm not sure it is symbolism. I think it is a real debate, among members of the hierarchy...who ever would have thought?
I think it is unfortunate inasense that onthe day of his installation, every Bishop,archbishop and Cardinal doesn't submit his resignation to the Pope. Those he wants to replace he replaces, those he wants to keep in their sees he keeps. But I doubt that's a practcal solution. But I remain confident that change will continue to come.
Iniitial appointments of bishops in the US seem ambiguous at best. Perhaps they were already in some pipeline, but I think he stil must show some action with the Bishop Finns to continue-or truly establish -the credibility that most of us hope for.
Is Pope Francis the person he seems? My long years have taught me that you don't REALLY know a person until you see him or her act in a crisis situation in which they have to make a decision that could cost them a lot personally. Yes, that means we don't really know very many people well. So we'll have to wait and see about Francis.
But if he's really a fake, then he is also an extremely great actor. (I mean that seriously.). His body language and voice match his words in public.
Public admonishment of cardinals is, in a sense, mere words, but still strikes me as significant. We've observed many times here the code of conduct that prescribes Thou Shalt Not Publicly Criticize Thy Brother Bishop. Apparently the code is abolished under this papacy. That's significant, yes?
Jim P. I do think that's significant. I also think that often change is not an immediate about face, but a much more gradual thing, that results from the accumulation of many small changes. Wedon'tparticularly like that kind of change. We want ti to bebig and dramatic.We want the Popeto come out and annouce thousands of doctrinal changes an Tuesday that go into effect on Wednesday. But it often doesn't work like that. For every Vatican II which was relatively swift and relatively dranatic change, although it actually took several years from planning to completion, the more normal process is the counter-Vatican II "revolution" of John Paul II and Benedict XVI, with constant chipping away that occurred over 35 years. My hope is that we are entering a new era of returning to a Vatican II mindset. It won't be done by Thursday, though.
Ann O - Is Pope Francis the person he seems? ...if he's really a fake, then he is also an extremely great actor. (I mean that seriously.).
I worry about that also - I didn't pay very close attention to John Paul II for many years while I was very busy with career and three kids. Eventually I realized that he was not what I had thought - but he was a great actor. Burned once - it's good to reserve judgment.
Anne C. --
There are such things as psychotics who are world-class charmers. I knew a world-class charmer who, according to many who knew him best, could also be a bare-faced liar. But I hope that the Holy spirit would protect us from such.
"really a fake"? Hmm.


text:
Group Health
Insurance Plans
Products Designed for the Size of your Business
Keep your employees healthy while you save money and control costs.
Health Plans for
Medium Businesses
Tailored solutions for medium-size businesses with flexible funding options.
Health Plans for
Larger Businesses
We offer a variety of products and services for your unique needs and goals.
Learn more about Cigna group benefits:
Cigna Group Dental Insurance
Our plans focus on delivering better health and a better experience for you and customers. Learn more
Cigna Pharmacy Management®
Pharmacy programs help improve clinical savings, not just drug cost management. Find out how
Cigna's Private Retail Exchange
Cigna's solution for you to easily access our products and services. Learn more
Group Health Global Coverage
Worldwide health plans for employees working outside of their home country. Learn more


text:
10 Apple-Themed Crafts and Activitiesby Lindsay Hutton
Cool, crisp autumn weather just screams apple season, doesn't it? Get your kids in the mood for fall with these apple-themed crafts, activities, and recipes.
1 of 11
Apple Picking
Apple picking is the quintessential fall family activity. Get the family together and head out to your local apple farm to pick your own apples. It's a great way to enjoy the fall weather and to get some fresh air and exercise. And besides, you'll need a big harvest for all the recipes and crafts we have in store for you!
Next: Apple Candlesticks


text:
Norman Guadagno: Announcing Visual Studio Team System 2010
- Posted: Sep 29, 2008 at 5:57AM
- 135,956 views
- 13 comments
Loading user information from Channel 9
Something went wrong getting user information from Channel 9
Loading user information from MSDN
Something went wrong getting user information from MSDN
Loading Visual Studio Achievements
Something went wrong getting the Visual Studio Achievements
Right click "Save as…"
Oops, something didn't work.
One vote for "Twenty-Ten"
Much easier on the tongue than "two thousand and ten"
I'm really looking forward to the goodness in this release. The Repro help is huge!
I'm expecting there to be much more info released at PDC.
RoryBecker2 asked a good question: "Is .Net Framework going to include a New CLR or are we going to continue with v2.0?"
I am very interested in learning what new features will be in the CLR, and if it will warrant a new CLR version or if it'll just be built on top of 2.0.
|bingo online
Comments have been closed since this content was published more than 30 days ago, but if you'd like to continue the conversation, please create a new thread in our Forums, or Contact Us and let us know.


text:
This article from The Atlantic is surely one of the most hotly debated articles I've seen lately. In it, writer Conor Friedersdorf declares flatly that he will not vote for President Obama because of moral objections to (a) drone strikes in Waziristan, (b) the President's "kill" list, and (c) how Libya was handled. In a follow-up, Friedersdorf shared some of the responses he received from the article, particularly framed around the question of having certain issues be "dealbreakers" for candidates.
Continue reading "Is Voting a Practical Choice or an Idealistic One?"


text:
Suppose I have a string containing the C-representation of a floating point number, for example
s = "1.23e-5"
and I want to convert this to a Mathematica number. How can I do this?
ToExpression[s] gives
Plus[-5, Times[1.23`, e]].
Suppose I have a string containing the C-representation of a floating point number, for example
and I want to convert this to a Mathematica number. How can I do this?
I think probably the cleanest way to do this (at least, if you have only a single string, or are faced with a separate string for each number you wish to convert as a result of some other process) is to use the undocumented function
which gives:
However, if you are trying to convert many such numbers at once, the standard, documented methods (
Which is not as good as what you started with. Note that it is important to close the stream.
Szabolcs says this is difficult to read. That was surely not my intention. You could also write it verbosely like this:
Another solution would be to use
Borrowing some code from Mr.Wizard so that I can compare my solution to his:
Now as you can see there is still an order of magnitude, but at least
Some of the types in
As far as the current speed of
On version 7
This sent me looking for another way to convert numeric strings. Using
Being an internal function is it not error tolerant and if fed bad arguments it will crash the kernel. The syntax is as follows:
table : table of strings, depth = 2; need not be rectangular. pre : List of literal strings to ignore if preceding the digits (only first match tried). post : List of literal strings to ignore if following the digits (only first match tried). neg : literal string to interpret a negative sign (`-`). pos : literal string to interpret a positive sign (`+`). dot : literal string to interpret as decimal point.
Version 10 introduced
Unfortunately it seems that like many new-in-10 functions this is far from optimized. In fact I would say its performance is nothing short of abysmal for this particular task.
Some string data to test with:
Timings for
At more than three orders of magnitude slower than the old methods the new function is simply not appropriate for general use. Hopefully it will be improved in a future release.
May be one can try the following
This works for me with large data (1E6 points) in Ver 8.0.1:
"Data" forces mathematica to convert 1.734E-003 into 0.001734 but keeps as string because the first 2 lines contains names. "Drop" Keeps the first non-numerical lines out.