text:
Northeast hit by record global-warming-type deluge
U.S. media misses the story, while "China spends big to counter severe weather caused by climate change"
It's pretty remarkable that we are having record rainfall and record flooding in the cold season month of March. It's much easier to set records in August, when there is much more moisture in the air available for record rains.
The Northeast has been walloped with record-smashing deluges and flooding.
I have called this type of rapid deluge, "global warming type" record rainfall, since it is one of the most basic predictions of climate science "" and it's an impact that has already been documented to have started, as I'll discuss.
Of course, in this country, you'll be hard pressed to find any discussion of global climate change in connection with this deluge. The Today Show ran 3 stories this morning and never mentioned climate change at all. But is it too much to ask after so many in the media mislead the public into thinking that the record snow was somehow evidence against human-caused global warming?
Other countries don't have a problem explaining to the public that extreme weather is already becoming common, just as scientists said it would (see "Must re-read statement from UK's Royal Society and Met Office on the connection between global warming and extreme weather"). Indeed, at the very same time all the U.S. records were being smashed, the UK's Guardian reported that China is taking action to deal with warming-driven extreme weather:
China will tomorrow start ramping up preparations for typhoons, dust storms and other extreme weather disasters as part of a 10-year plan to predict and prevent the worst impacts of climate change….
China has a long history of devastating floods and droughts, but officials said the problems were intensifying.
"It is necessary to respond to the new situation under climate change to avoid and mitigate the losses caused by meteorological disasters," said Gao Fengtao, deputy director of the state council's legislative affairs office, as he unveiled the new policy.
In recent years, he said, disasters were characterised by "sudden occurrence, wider variety, greater intensity and higher frequency in the context of global warming".
But in this country, as I've noted many times, the anti-science disinformers try to shout down any talk of a link between climate change and extreme weather.
Nonetheless, the great Nor'easter of 2010 would appear to easily qualify as a global-warming-type deluge. As uber-meteorologist Jeff Masters noted in his post (quoted above), perhaps remarkably, it has occurred during March, when you wouldn't normally expect such records to be set. Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist at the Weather Channel, made a comparable point about Georgia's devastating September rainstorms. Of course, Ostro pointed out there was no way to know if global warming had "caused" the record floods, but
Nevertheless, there's a straightforward connection in the way the changing climate "set the table" for what happened this September in Atlanta and elsewhere. It behooves us to understand not only theoretical expected increases in heavy precipitation (via relatively slow/linear changes in temperatures, evaporation, and atmospheric moisture) but also how changing circulation patterns are already squeezing out that moisture in extreme doses and affecting weather in other ways.
That's why I use the term global-warming-type deluge — but only when a changing climate "set the table" for something that truly smashes through the record books.
Another remarkable feature of the storm was explained by Steve Scolnik of Capital Climate in his post, which lists all of the major records that were broken:
The NWS [National Weather Service] notes that this is now the 3rd episode of excessive rainfall in the region within the last 3 weeks, an unprecedented occurrence in recorded history.
In Providence, RI, yesterday's rainfall total of 3.47″ nearly tripled the previous March 29 daily record of 1.19″ set in 1931. The 4.31″ measured so far today also smashes the old daily record of 2.57″.
Note: In the AP photo at the top, an oil slick runs through the Pawtuxet River in Warwick, RI.
Jeff Masters has more of the records:
Record rains from a slow-moving and extremely wet Nor'easter have triggered historic flooding in Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts, with several rivers exceeding their 100-year flood levels. The 16.32″ of rain that has fallen on Providence, Rhode Island, this month is the most rain recorded in any month, besting the previous record of 15.38″ set in October 2005. Blue Hill Observatory in SE Massachusetts also set a record for wettest month ever, with 18.79″ (previous record: 18.78″, August 1955.) Records extend back to 1905 and 1885 at the two sites. The Rhode Island all-time state record for heaviest precipitation in a month was smashed as well, thanks to the 19.62″ observed this March at North Kingstown. The old state record was 16.70″, set at North Foster in October 2005. Many locations in the Northeast recorded their wettest March ever, including New York City and Boston.
This was not one-day weather event over a small area. This was a month-long regional event of staggering proportion. Masters has a figure of "observed precipitation for the month of March" courtesy of NOAA:
How does one talk about this? NPR ran a good interview with Dr. Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, back in February on the snowstorms (see "President Obama explains the science behind climate change and extreme weather"):
Mr. KEVIN TRENBERTH (Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research): The fact that the oceans are warmer now than they were, say, 30 years ago, means there's about, on average, 4 percent more water vapor lurking around over the oceans than there was, say, in the 1970s.
JOYCE: Warmer water means more water vapor rises up into the air. And what goes up, must come down.
Mr. TRENBERTH: So one of the consequences of a warming ocean near a coastline like the East Coast and Washington, D.C., for instance, is that you can get dumped on with more snow, partly as a consequence of global warming.
Or, when it is warm enough, you get dumped on with more rain, partly as a consequence of global warming. And it is getting warm (see " Global cooling bites the dust: Hottest January followed by second hottest February. Now March is busting out").
For completeness' sake, I'll quickly run through some of the literature. Regular readers can skip the rest of this post. You can find more here and there's some terrific technical meteorological analysis here.
In 2004, the Journal of Hydrometeorology published an analysis by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center that found "Over the contiguous United States, precipitation, temperature, streamflow, and heavy and very heavy precipitation have increased during the twentieth century."
They found (here) that over the course of the 20th century, the "Cold season (October through April)," saw a 16% increase in "heavy" precipitation events (roughly greater than 2 inches [when it comes as rain] in one day), and a 25% increase in "very heavy" precipitation events (roughly greater than 4 inches in one day)- and a 36% rise in "extreme" precipitation events (those in the 99.9% percentile "" 1 in 1000 events). This rise in extreme precipitation is precisely what is predicted by global warming models in the scientific literature.
In fact, the last few decades have seen rising extreme precipitation over the United States in the historical record, according to NCDC's Climate Extremes Index (CEI):
An increasing trend in the area experiencing much above-normal proportion of heavy daily precipitation is observed from about 1950 to the present.
UPDATE: Here is a plot of the percentage of this country (times two) with much greater than normal proportion of precipitation derived from extreme 1-day precipitation events (where extreme equals the highest tenth percentile of deluges, from NOAA):
No surprise, then, that as a recent WWF post noted, U.S. Sees Wettest October on Record; Arkansas Records are Washed Away.
Even the Bush Administration in its must-read U.S. Climate Change Science Program report, Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, acknowledged:
Many extremes and their associated impacts are now changing"¦. Heavy downpours have become more frequent and intense"¦.
It is well established through formal attribution studies that the global warming of the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced increases in heat-trapping gases."¦ The increase in heavy precipitation events is associated with an increase in water vapor, and the latter has been attributed to human-induced warming.
In the future, with continued global warming, heat waves and heavy downpours are very likely to further increase in frequency and intensity. Substantial areas of North America are likely to have more frequent droughts of greater severity.
In short, get used to it.
And remember, this is all from about a 1°F warming in the last few decades. We are on track to see nearly 10 times that over much of the United States on our current emissions path (see "Our hellish future: Definitive NOAA-led report on U.S. climate impacts warns of scorching 9 to 11°F warming over most of inland U.S. by 2090 with Kansas above 90°F some 120 days a year "" and that isn't the worst case, it's business as usual!"
In short, we ain't seen nothing yet.
Related Posts:
- Australian Scientists: Contrary to media reports, "our paper does not discount climate change as playing a role in this most recent drought, the 'Big Dry'. In fact, there are indications that climate change has worsened this recent drought."
- Preparing For Frankenstorms: "The most powerful low pressure system in 140 years of record keeping" slams the Southwest.
- In other UK news: "Rain like this happens once every 1,000 years"
- Global boiling: Freak storms on every continent
- Why the "never seen before" Fargo flooding is just what you'd expect from global warming, as Obama warns
- Massive moisture-driven extreme precipitation during warmest winter in the satellite record "" and the deniers say it disproves (!) climate science
- MSNBC's Ratigan: "These 'snowpocalypses' that have been going through DC and other extreme weather events are precisely what climate scientists have been predicting, fearing and anticipating because of global warming."
- Welcome readers of the NYT's front-page climate story with the bad headline
- UK Prime Minister on "weather extremes" and climate change
54 Responses to Northeast hit by record global-warming-type deluge
Dr. Trenberth – "But warming means increased heat waves and drying that increases risk of drought and reduces snowpack and water resources, …
[JR: Yes, dry areas will tend to get drier — and wherever and whenever droughts occur they will tend to be hotter and longer. At the same time, wet areas are likely to get wetter. That is why they call it climate change.]
mmm…2005 was a very hot year. Seems to be a connection there somewhere with this year. Can't quite put my finger on it…..
And there's this also you mention elsewhere (below)…there seems to be a rude awakening happening. I bet within 3yrs the frequency and intensity of these sort of events will have converted the majority.
Climate change is the new health and safety
'Adapting Institutions to Climate Change' the committee of experts recommended that every school, hosptial and business should have a legal duty to adapt to climate change. For example by putting in place flood defences and plans for water shortages.
Chairman of the Royal Commission, said global warming is a real risk and could cause huge problems for Britain.
He said all businesses and public bodies should have to carry out a "climate change adaptation test" in the same way as they currently conduct health and safety checks.
"Any society confronted with those kind of dramatic changes to their climate would be very wise to take due attention to the risk that poses to society, infrastructure and people's lives and begin to plan accordingly.
…- people are going to get killed or injured by climate change and that is why it is important."
However, ironically, the Nat'l Assoc. of Insurance Commissioners took a major step back on climate risk disclosure!? http://www.naic.org/documents/committees_explen_climate_survey_032810.pdf
So what you are saying now is that weather is climate.
BTW – the desert southwest is having an excellent extended ski season. Is that due to the extreme warmth and drought you are forecasting? Check out the spring ski conditions in Los Alamos, New Mexico.
BASE DEPTH (mid-mountain undisturbed) 86″
Also, how is your Arctic "Death Spiral" coming along?
[JR: Climate change changes the climate and that drives extreme weather. Get used to it. Arctic "Death Spiral" is, as explained, a rapidly downward loop-the-loop, but without much actual recover in volume occurring anymore. I expect the disinformers will continue to be stuck in their two-dimensional thinking whereas the people who understand climate science will focus on the ice thin-ness and dwindling volume. No saving the Arctic now, especially if we keep listening to the people you seem to believe in.]
That is an insane amount of rain, not to mention the very obvious fact that is was rain and not snow.
My goodness, North Kingston received as much rain in one month as we receive in my hometown in an entire year!
Goddard constructs a strawman:
"So what you are saying now is that weather is climate. "
What Joe said:
"Of course, Ostro pointed out there was no way to know if global warming had "caused" the record floods"
…but it's definitely a few data points and an example of the long-term trend…
An increase in extreme precipitation events is both predicted and observed.
…and while you're cherry-picking snowpack data points…
I posted this link on an earlier thread, but somehow it seems to have disappeared.
A simple model based on the physics provides a decent prediction of the global temperature of the 2010s:
Considerably warmer, so there will be many more such megadownpours.
Steven Goddard @3, actually read the article and carefully. Yes, we know that one should not attribute single events to AGW. A side note, that does not stop you or Anthony from frequently making that mistake.
But there is a trend in heavy rainfall events here. Did you miss that critical part? Or the part where it is stated that we should expect more events like this in the future. In fact, research in reputable journal papers has already established that heavy rainfall events around the globe are on the increase.
And the long term trend of MY ice in the Arctic is still markedly down. You just never learn do you? Also, by referring to current Arctic ice extent (of very thin and young ice), you are making the very mistake that you are accusing others of. Please make up your mind. Is it long term trends or Anthony's pick of the day?
And also look at the record global AMSU temperatures for March, and in fact the near record values for DJF. According to NASA GISS the planet just had the second warmest DFJ on record and the long term trend in DJF (and annual) temps is UP.
Wow, you guys are getting desperate. Next you'll be citing temps for individual stations as evidence of "global cooling." Oh hang on, those in denial have already done that. OK, I really do not know where you guys go from here, b/c you are already scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Steven Goddard #4, No we're saying Climate is Weather.
Meanwhile, California is experiencing very COLD stormy weather this week with snow expected on the hills around both the Los Angeles and San Francisco urban areas.
Forecasters say a southward drift in the jet stream will continue to drive an unseasonably cold low-pressure system through the state this week.
"Unseasonably cold air aloft will bring snow levels and/or wet bulb zero levels to 2000 feet or lower throughout NorCal."
"…it's possible that snow levels could even drop as low as 1500-2000 feet in Southern California"
Is this "climate change" or "weather"?
NCDC shows no increase in US precipitation over the last 30 years. Eight of the last eleven years have been below the mean.
[JR: Duh! Dry areas are getting drier and wet areas are getting wetter. The issue isn't the mean over 2% of the globe. NCDC shows an increase in extreme precipitation (click here), which is it what the point of this post.]
Yes, these sorts of extreme weather events, caused by greenhouse warming were predicted around 1990. It was thought then that the effects of global warming would manifest as extreme weather events and as desertification of vast areas.
Remember that if a location gets 40 inches of rain and that rain falls at a rate of about 1 inch per week, it probably will be lush with vegetation. But if that 40 inches falls as two 20 inch deluges that wash everything away in a flood, when not flooded, that area will appear dry and barren, like a desert. Not only do you have to get the right amount of rain, you also have to get it at the right times. Imagine the severity of this problem when applied to agriculture.
Yes Catman…
Hello where are you Leif with your analysis of the energy increase into the weather systems??? That would seem pertinent.
The Weather Channel is running a climate change special tonight on the skepticism among TV forecasters. Unfortunately, I suspect it's only going to further confuse people and tend to give the skeptics a platform to disinform the public. Looking at the guests, it appears there will be two hard-core denier types (Bob Breck and James Spann) among the four. What will probably happen is the hard-core deniers will overwhelm the viewer with BS that the other meteorologists will be unable to counter because they aren't climate experts.
Steve @ 11,
You claim there is no increase, but the image you linked to shows a trend of 0.07″/decade. That might sound insignificant, but when you consider it's purporting to express the average rainfall of a vast landmass consisting of millions of square miles, even a little change could be significant – especially when you consider that some areas are drier and others wetter.
And it's funny that you would accuse Joe of confounding weather and climate, when that's what you deniers do everyday – just look at the Watts Up With That site, for instance. Right now, he's going on about how the Arctic sea ice is just a little bit below normal. Somehow ice being "only" a bit below the mean is somehow evidence that climate change isn't happening, notwithstanding the fact that Watts' favorite satellite temperature analysis shows current temperatures at record breaking levels.
Not to understate things, but the amount of precipitation is very important. I live in Minnesota and on the eastern side of the state, we get about 30 inches of precipitation a year. Then if you follow a precipitation map all the way to western South Dakota, the precipitation drops to about 5 to 10 inches a year. The two areas a very different in the kind of plants that grow and also that determined the population density of those areas.
One of the fears I have is that whatever it's called; Global Warming or Climate Change, it'll turn Minnesota into South Dakota. (Sorry South Dakota.)
What's weird this year here is that we didn't get any snow in March. Usually March is our snowiest month because the air could carry more water than in colder January, but all the precipitation we got this year in March came as rain.
Just how much more moisture in the atmosphere does 4% represent? About 6 weeks ago on CP we were confronted with the same question. My estimate was about the volume of Lake Superior. comment #3.
A commenter came back, johna, #14, with an answer of about 1.5 times the volume of Lake Superior. I would quickly point out that that I am not a climate scientist nor to my knowledge is johna, which should catapult us both to the top of the deniers reference list but others should take our efforts with a grain of salt and maybe run the numbers themselves. Needles to say even if we are in the ball park we are looking at a whole lot of water that needs to come back out of the sky as rain but even snow in the winter when it is cold outside.
A fortnight ago here in Wales we ended a sharp drought with nightly frosts that, despite still having snow patches up on the tops was hard enough to dry up the mountains' winter-time springs (that normally faded in June).
Overnight we switched into a milder and increasingly wet phase to the point of waterlogging the fields.
Then today the temperature dropped and we've had snow, sleet and hail coming in on high winds – on the day that is traditionally the first day of lambing round here.
Fortunately all of our 'nursery' fields have the shelter of woods and/or dry stone walls, so the many early lambs should survive the wet-&-windchill ok. Those lambing out on the open mountain pastures are both higher and lacking shelter.
I hope the above may illustrate the utter disruption of the traditional seasons that we used to rely on in Britain. They are gone. And the problems resulting are intensifying by the year.
From this perspective I find the self-censorship of those who repeat the cliche that "no single event can be blamed on global warming" really frustrating.
At the least one could say that "No single event can be stated definitively as originating either in nature or in global warming."
At the best, it can be observed that with the massive GHG & feedback forcings now measurable, none of the weather we are seeing is natural, in fact it is increasingly unnatural, since the entire evolution of every weather system is distorted by those forcings.
Moreover, if a region has one hundred-year extreme weather event, followed within a few years by say five more, shouldn't five of the six be attributed to GW with a confidence factor to account the likelyhood of nature pulling such a stunt ?
Steven Goddard #11, according to the Bush administration report Joe linked above (p.46) the LIGHT and AVERAGE precipitation events haven't changed significantly, but HEAVY precipitation events have increased.
"…there has been little change or decrease in the frequency of light and average precipitation days (Easterling et al., 2000; Groisman et al.,2004, 2005) during the last 30 years, while heavy precipitation frequencies have increased (Sun and Groisman, 2004). For example, the amount of precipitation falling in the heaviest
1% of rain events increased by 20% during the 20th century, while total precipitation increased by 7% (Groisman et al., 2004)."
Re: Goddard (#11),
Moving the goalposts again, I see. We were talking about extreme precipitation events, but you're helping to make Joe's point.
Steven, you need to move forward from your halcyon days of 2007, join the rest of us in 2010.
It's become obvious that our obsession with ice extent is increasingly irrelevant and should be superseded with the message conveyed by ice volume. That's exactly according to expectations, of course; nobody has said the Arctic will be free of ice in winter but we can certainly expect and indeed are seeing more severe excursions from the long term norm in late summer and early fall. Thin ice melts more quickly, not exactly rocket science but hard to understand for some few of us, apparently.
My sympathy to those in the north east USA who've been getting rain and floods.
We've been getting more than our share of extreme events with record floods in Queensland this year covering an area bigger than the state of Victoria (or the UK), following major flooding last year. This month, record torrential rain and hail events in Melbourne and Perth and surrounding areas has kept the insurance companies busy.
CSIRO and BoM recently released this joint statement: http://www.csiro.au/files/files/pvfo.pdf
Even seemingly normal weather down here has been breaking records, with so far 113 consecutive days in Melbourne with the maximum 20C or more and it's not over yet. The previous record was 78 consecutive days in 2000-01. Hobart has also had similar record broken (17C).
(Steven Goddard at #4 is the same person who recently wrote an article on his favourite website, trying to kid readers that comments relating to a 20th Century Fox fictional film were instead predictions of climate for the UK. And was successful going by the responses. He's a mischievous bloke with a credulous following.)
Massachusetts Senator John Kerry commented several months ago that citizens should be very angry about the lack of progress on the climate and energy issue. He insists that he is going as far as the political will allows. But with the extensive misinformation campaigns, there's a logjam in that the average citizen is confused, and in need of education.
So why doesn't Senator Kerry use his request for federal disaster aid as a teaching opportunity? He could explain that the recent series of heavy precipitation events are consistent with what has been predicted with climate change. Instead, while touring areas in the state to observe firsthand the flood damage, he remains mute on the real causitive factor, even though he insists he's serious about getting climate legislation passed.
Governor Patrick of Massachusetts has been a proponent of many green initiatives, but he, too, lacks the courage to say the words climate change in the face of this unprecendented deluge.
I have given up on meteorologists making the connection. As a resident of MA, however, dealing with a flooded basement AGAIN, I am disappointed with both Kerry and Patrick that they will not muster the moral fortitude to inform their constituents that what we are experiencing is, in all likelihood, a manifestation of climate change.
Someone will want to comment on this Discovery News story:
A new theory emerges to explain how early Earth was able to host liquid oceans despite a weak sun.
(Old theory involves greenhouse gases.)
[JR: 3.8 billion years ago? People are still attacking temp reconstructions from last year!]
Last week we had almost summer temperature (up to 25C).
Today's EU weather (google translation)
A cold snap with heavy snow, Nord Europe for traffic chaos and power cuts in care. In Deutschland war es vielerorts sehr stürmisch. In Germany it was often very stormy. Für die Ostertage rechnen Meteorologen mit Regen und Kälte – stellenweise soll es sogar Frost und Schnee geben. For the Easter forecasters expect rain and cold – in places it is frost and snow even give.
London – In großen Teilen Großbritanniens hat es an diesem Mittwoch bei Temperaturen um den Gefrierpunkt den zweiten Tag in Folge geschneit. London – In large parts of Britain, it snowed this Wednesday at temperatures around freezing for the second day in succession. Heftige Schnee- und Regenfälle sowie starker Wind führten zu Störungen im Straßen-, Zug- und Schiffsverkehr. Heavy snow and rains and strong winds led to disruptions in road, train and ship traffic. In Schottland waren fast 20.000 Haushalte ohne Strom, in Nordirland sogar mehr als 45.000. In Scotland, almost 20,000 households without electricity in Ireland, even more than 45,000.
Bei Londonderry in Nordirland wurden mehr als 300 Menschen aus ihren Fahrzeugen gerettet, die in der Nacht im Schnee steckengeblieben waren. In Londonderry in Northern Ireland more than 300 people were rescued from their vehicles that were stuck in the snow at night. Im schottischen Edinburgh waren nach Überschwemmungen und Erdrutschen mehrere Bahnlinien unterbrochen. In Scotland, Edinburgh to floods and landslides several railway lines were interrupted.
While it is true that one cannot proof AGW caused a specific weather event, it may be possible to estimate the probability. Stott et al did this for the 2003 summer heat wave in Europe (see below). It would be interesting to see if it is possible to make a similar calculation for the 2010 New England Spring floods.
Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003
Peter A. Stott1, D. A. Stone, & M. R. Allen,
Nature 432, 610-614 (2 December 2004)
"Using a threshold for mean summer temperature that was exceeded in 2003, but in no other year since the start of the instrumental record in 1851, we estimate it is very likely (confidence level >90%) that human influence has at least doubled the risk of a heatwave exceeding this threshold magnitude."
This work took several months to do and several more before it was peer reviewed and published. It is possible to get rapid estimates of this kind for media release during or soon after such events?
Perhaps Earth has been infected with malaria and it's experiencing alternating chills and fevers as a result.
25#If you put it that way, nice analogy Earth – Human, greenhouse gases cause a morbid fever.
And the doctor says:"Stop with the smoking habit to prevent the worst."
Wit's End, #13: How can I deny the request of a lady.
Global warming and energy accumulation.
When looking at global warming of ~ 1C over the course of fifty years it is easy to say as the Anti -Science folks do, "So what is the big deal." A little warmer, great! The problem arises when we look at the energy to raise the earth and ~700 meters of ocean that 1C. imagine a huge pot of water that you build a fire under it and then watch the temperature rise. It is going to take a long time to get a degree or two response or conversely a big fire. Now imagine a pot the size of all the oceans of the world from pole to pole and a third of a mile deep. It is going to take one big mother of a fire to heat that puppy ~1C or 2F don't you think. How big? Guess what, science tells us. We have been turning up the fire a bit every day starting from a steady state at the beginning of the industrial revolution to now where we are adding the total power out-put of ~190,000 nuclear power plants per day directly into the oceans of the world and adding about 10 new plants a day every day. THAT is how much. Now that energy does not just sit there an a taste warmer water, NO that is potential energy. Think of a battery that you are charging and can be, in fact will be, discharged. Energy wants to equilibrate. It is THE LAW. Weather is earth trying to balance to a steady state from unequal heating of the sun. And now the added energy of 190,00+ nuke plants. Remember what happened to Katrina when she passed over a warm spot in the gulf? Bingo, cat. 5, just like that. What happens during an El Nino? Extra rain fall, disrupted jet streams and weather patterns, less snow fall in the Pacific North West, unseasonable warmth, the list goes on. Effects can carry across the US and even across the atlantic to Europe and Africa. How much temperature difference are we talking about with these two examples? You guessed it. A couple of degrees above normal.
So deniers, still think a degree or two is no big deal?
From the 2007 Synthesis Report of the IPCC:
Runoff is projected with high confidence to increase by 10 to 40% by mid-century at higher latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, including populous areas in East and South-East Asia, and decrease by 10 to 30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and dry tropics, due to decreases in rainfall and higher rates of evapotranspiration. There is also high confidence that many semi-arid areas (e.g. the Mediterranean Basin, western United States, southern Africa and north-eastern Brazil) will suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change….
Available research suggests a significant future increase in heavy rainfall events in many regions, including some in which the mean rainfall is projected to decrease. The resulting increased flood risk poses challenges to society, physical infrastructure and water quality. It is likely that up to 20% of the world population will live in areas where river flood potential could increase by the 2080s. Increases in the frequency and severity of floods and droughts are projected to adversely affect sustainable development….
Scroll to the bottom: they have a nice map synthesizing projections (with qualifiers in the print below).
Rick (#25) – nice analogy!
It seems pretty plain that severe rain events where totals are dependent on the moisture levels within the airmass (e.g. warm air advection from sea to land, precipitation set off by orographic lift) are increasing in their frequency. Over here in the UK we had a severe event back last November: warm conveyors from the Atlantic dumping their rain as they rise over the western mountains are a familiar part of our weather but the flooding that hit the Lake District, arising from such a setup, was exceptional. How many exceptional events have to occur before the naysayers wake up? How many have to die or lose their homes? How many billions have to be paid out by the insurance sector? Climate change is going to be the most costly misadventure in the history of humanity.
One thing I've noticed is that here in Richmond, Va for the past couple of summers when we get a thunderstorm they tend to drop huge amounts of rain all at once. It's just like having a giant bucket of water dumped on you. Can be very dangerous if you're driving during it and causes a lot of local street flooding.
While weather is clearly not climate, climate just as clearly manifests itself through weather. Which has me wondering…..
In January we had a brief cold snap in Pennsylvania and the well-known snowstorms in February that supposedly "proved" that global warming was just so much hooey (technical term).
But now, in March, 27 of 31 days (87%) were above normal, some of them very much above normal. And April will apparently start off the same. Now I grant that weather is not climate, and my town occupies just a tiny spot on this earth, but that's not my concern. My concern is as follows: If Neil Cavuto has Joe Romm on his show due to a localized cold snap, and if all the deniers go into overdrive over a couple of snowstorms, why am I now hearing crickets after a month in which 87% of the days had above normal temperatures? I'll grant it's not as dramatic as a 20 inch snowstorm, or even a monster rain storm, but still…….
Last two days of march have seen horrific snow event in scotland and northern ireland due to intense low pressure system. not seasonally 'normal' – snow at Easter in the UK is not unusual, but this is extreme.
Thank you Leif!
Two summers ago when I became concerned about dying trees I called some state agencies to inquire about the drought. They claimed there was no drought even though we had had weeks with no rain, because the only way the measure drought is by the level of water in the reservoirs. So if we get less frequent, but heavier downpours, as far as the state of New Jersey is concerned, there is no drought.
I was writing about the issue of attributing weather events to climate change early this morning on my blog and the question that arose in my mind was, if there is an earthquake is it attributed to plate tectonics? Pretty much, in fact, isn't every earthquake attributed to plate tectonics (up until the ice sheets melt and then we can blame the displacement of the weight).
So along those lines I think we should attribute EVERY weather event to climate change, since humans have displaced natural forcings and our activities are now what is dictating climate conditions and the weather that results.
The End.
Sorry one more thing. When people complain that legislation to rein in emissions will be too expensive, this link should be made:
It seems to me that our system of jurisprudence gets in the way of taking corrective action. Many many cases where smokers have sued tobacco companies for their illness have been dismissed because it can't be proved with certainty that smoking caused an individual illness even when it is certain that smoking causes an increase in the incidence of the illness. Instead we have a system where the tobacco companies are kept in business through a settlement with states' AGs which brings revenues to the states but does not make the business too expensive to conduct.
It seems equally clear that the efforts of oil and coal companies to forestall efforts to address the cause of global warming is costing lives and property damage. But, we can't pin anyone death on them so there is no grounds to use the power of the courts to end their activities. Instead we get more mining, more drilling and even greater damage as our politicians try to curry favor with this unstoppable evil.
Nevertheless, it seems to me that we should be developing ways to count the cost. We need to go beyond saying global-warming-type deluge to saying what fraction of flood damage, economic disruption from snow storms, deaths in storms and heat waves and crop failures are owing to the coal, oil and gas lobbies' efforts to delay action. Sometime, perhaps already or perhaps soon, the annual cost will exceed the annual profits of these industries and it will be clear that they cannot make any adequate compensation for their misdeeds.
Already these industries are receiving a government bailout each time a disaster is declared. Let us count the cost.
WIts End wrote: 'So along those lines I think we should attribute EVERY weather event to climate change'
to make a slight correction: (which I think you meant)
'So along those lines I think we should attribute every EXTREME weather event to climate change'
There was weather and climate before there were humans.
"climate is what you expect, weather is what you get'
We probably could use some good definitions for:
extreme weather event
I read a post a few years ago from someone who lived in San Diego where the weather was beautiful every day for years on end, but he was complaining about the 'beautiful, boring weather, day after day'. No rain, highs in the low 80s, pleasant evenings. Even beautiful, fair weather, if it continues for way too long, might be considered an 'extreme weather event'.
[JR: I have tried to reserve this "global warming type" event for the extreme record-busting ones, especially ones that are extended in time and regional coverage, like Australia's "Big Dry."]
Hey, how about we settle on EVERY RECORD-BREAKING weather event!?
climateprogressive, #30: "How many billions have to be paid out by the insurance sector?" Remember folks this money is a redistribution of wealth. The money is taken from areas that normally do not suffer from weather damage but some times do, so you contribute to a pot to protect yourself. Insurance companies operate at a profit, unlike the Government. When mega-disasters happen insurance companies are pushed to the breaking point and sometimes even over. Those that manage to survive are forced to raise the rates of all of us to prepare for the next episode.
At some point will insurance companies just cop out? Only insure folks in ever shrinking "safety zones?" Will people, unable to pay ever increasing premiums, be forced to take their chances? Will large segments of once habitable land be force to be evacuated and reclaimed by nature? Will governments be forced to step up to the plate with large public works projects to protect valuable infrastructure? Will building codes be enhanced to account for increased peril? Will all this and more cost you more money? I believe it is safe to say with some confidence, YES, to all of the above.
I know people around Boston (I'm one of them) who have never had water in their basement, and who now have faced two floods in two weeks. Everyone I know is planning to get sump pumps, which they've never before needed. We all believe that this rain is, in fact, a product of that change; and that we will see more of it as a result.
So lots of folks up this way agree with you, Joe, and are acting accordingly, in a very practical way. But you deniers, I urge you to please be consistent and don't install a sump pump. Waste of money for a freak storm that we won't see again, right? And … good luck with that!
Lief (#39),
In the US flood insurance is handled by the government. It is done this way because we are trying to eliminate the need for flood insurance. Essentially, in exchange for allowing property values to have some continuity via insurance on existing property, local governments agree to pass zoning ordinances that prevent new building in flood zones. In principle, after a few generations, regions susceptible to flood won't have any buildings on them and they will be used in ways that are robust to flooding. Warming means that we need to redraw the flood risk maps and start over on zoning.
Just wait, the insurance companies will stop homeowner's policies that cover tree damage, ditto for cars.
How many more "100 year floods" are we going to have this decade?
David sez:
And it's funny that you would accuse Joe of confounding weather and climate, when that's what you deniers do everyday – just look at the Watts Up With That site, for instance. Right now, he's going on about how the Arctic sea ice is just a little bit below normal.
To be more specific, the "he" in the last sentence is Steven Goddard himself, doing his annual winter dance pointing to the fact that gee, there's ice in winter, thus arctic ice isn't dminishing.
I know people around Boston (I'm one of them) who have never had water in their basement, and who now have faced two floods in two weeks. Everyone I know is planning to get sump pumps, which they've never before needed. We all believe that this rain is, in fact, a product of that change; and that we will see more of it as a result.
I'm heading out there on Saturday, and the friend I'm staying with's girl friend's basement was flooded in that first round of wetness y'all had out there. She'd never had that happen before, apparently lost quite a bit of stuff in the basement.
I live in southern RI, on the coast. Our home is not optimally situated. It lies on a downhill slope with an asphalt parking lot to the east and south sides, and a dirt lot to the north, across the road from our property. The road we live on is considered rural so the town of S. Kingstown has not installed storm drains. Usually, when we get a heavy rain, the northeast corner of the basement gets a bit wet, but easy to clean up with towels. We do get some ponding in the back yard during these types of rains as well, but it always recedes quickly. Despite all these factors, our home is in a prime location for a flooded basement,wouldn't you agree? Well, in the 20 years we've lived here, not once-except for the time our washer hose let go-has a storm of any severity, caused our basement to flood the way it is flooding right now. It's been two days since the rain stopped and the ground water is still coming in. This is most certainly an extreme weather event that came without warning. We NEVER have had floods like this.
It doesn't take a climate scientist to figure out that climate change has caused this event. All it takes is common sense. (but whoever accused a denier with an agenda of having that.)
Kim @46,
Really sorry to hear about the flooding. I agree with what you said, except:
"This is most certainly an extreme weather event that came without warning."
The NWS did have warnings out for heavy rain and flooding, well in advance of the storm's arrival, did they not?
PSU Grad says: April 1, 2010 at 8:55 am
"…why am I now hearing crickets after a month in which 87% of the days had above normal temperatures?"
Weather knows nothing of "message discipline." As an unreliable ally of rejectionists, when weather loses the plot and fails to supply talking points it is left to speak entirely for itself.
Statistically speaking it looks as though the PR folks running the rejectionist show are going to need to find a substitute for weather.
To Maple leaf,
I meant the dramatic flooding event came without warning, not the rain event. We obviously were expecting the rain.
Hi Kim,
Aah, that makes sense. Hope the water levels drop soon and you can start cleaning up. Best of luck.
Thank you for the information your provide.
The weather has been different in New Hampshire since the great Mother's Day Flood of 2006. I've lost track of how many floods we've had since.
NH floods used to be due to spring rain on melting snow. Or the great 1938 hurricane. Never from plain rain storms, even nor-easters, not severe floods in much of the state. Major roads closed, the Suncook river moved, people taken out of their houses on boats! the town of Raymond had so many roads cut off people couldn't get home — and the floods just keep coming. I've lost count of the total, but March had 3 severe floods.
I don't go out in the rain. I don't like driving when I can barely make out the tail lights of the car ahead of me, and can't change lanes on a freeway because I don't know if there's a car beside me. We did NOT have rain like that; I walked to school .9 of a mile in all weather. My mother never once 'rescued' me from bad weather. We had raincoats, and umbrellas, but we didn't get drowned. A couple of years ago, the rains tore out the sidewalks on the hilly road I walked up. For the first time ever. My father is 98 and confirmed the change in weather.
We are now on our fourth year of this damn rain. Last year it rained in June, not as heavy, but for 40 days straight. This is definitely a major shift in the weather. There have been too many freak storms.
People are yelling for the power lines to be buried. (My power went out this a.m., briefly, but exactly when the plumber was here to repair my water heater; this because the power company is having to fix stuff after the storm). People have no idea how much burying lines costs. Some of our towns and cities will HAVE to put in water diversion around their roads.
I am angry about the deniers, especially those who are funding nonsense. I'll restrain myself from ranting because I'll use words that Joe won't allow.
We have just had an unusually vigorous spring storm out here in the NW. Two feet of fresh snow in the mountains. Sorely needed and no one is complaining I hasten to add. 80 mph winds out on the coast. Just a little out of place.
Weather Underground has a good page on extreme weather and climate change.
Look down the page for a graph of 1910-2008 annual extreme one day precipitation events. It's very clear that the frequency of major water dumps is increasing.
(If anyone can find the direct link to the NOAA page where this graph lives, I would appreciate it. I spent quite a bit of time looking and didn't find the magic door.)


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The form of payment you receive through employment in a communist country; described as a 'honey wage' as it is spread out evenly.
I can't afford my bass harmonica, I only get a honey wage.
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Reviewed By Richard M (Sachse, TX) Reviewed for a 2013 Kia Sorento —7/25/2012 7:21 AM
Just what I was looking for great sound at a great price. Autoanything you rock
Reviewed By Cody M (FAIRHOPE, AL) Reviewed for a 2005 Chevy Silverado —7/25/2016 9:47 PM
Not quite as powerful as straights, but way ahead of the other flowmaster models. I have the 3" in and dual 2.5" out and the sound is awesome. I have 12" turndowns right where the bed meets the cab so that causes plenty of cabin drone. Overall great sound from outside. Going from stock to this even added enough hp that i can spin my 35x12.50s on dry pavement. Something i couldnt do before!
Kia Sorento EX Exhaust, Mufflers & Tips
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|By Marketwired .
Article Rating:
|January 30, 2014 06:04 PM EST
ISSAQUAH, WA -- (Marketwired) -- 01/30/14 -- Costco Wholesale Corporation ("Costco" or the "Company") (NASDAQ: COST) announced that today its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend on Costco common stock of 31 cents per share. The dividend is payable on February 28, 2014, to shareholders of record at the close of business on February 14, 2014.
Costco currently operates 648 warehouses, including 461 in the United States and Puerto Rico, 87 in Canada, 33 in Mexico, 25 in the United Kingdom, 18 in Japan, 10 in Taiwan, nine in Korea and five in Australia. Costco also operates electronic commerce web sites in the U.S., Canada, the United Kingdom and Mexico.
Certain statements contained in this document constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. For these purposes, forward-looking statements are statements that address activities, events, conditions or developments that the Company expects or anticipates may occur in the future. Such forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual events, results or performance to differ materially from those indicated by such statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, domestic and international economic conditions, including exchange rates, the effects of competition and regulation, uncertainties in the financial markets, consumer and small business spending patterns and debt levels, conditions affecting the acquisition, development, ownership or use of real estate, amounts expected to be spent on expansion plans, actions of vendors, rising costs associated with employees (including health care costs), energy, and certain commodities, geopolitical conditions and other risks identified from time to time in the Company's public statements and reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Costco Wholesale Corporation
Richard Galanti
Bob Nelson
Jeff Elliott
Manufacturers are embracing the Industrial Internet the same way consumers are leveraging Fitbits – to improve overall health and wellness. Both can provide consistent measurement, visibility, and suggest performance improvements customized to help reach goals. Fitbit users can view real-time data and make adjustments to increase their activity. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Mark Bernardo Professional Services Leader, Americas, at GE Digital, discussed how leveraging the Industrial Internet a...
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On Dice.com, the number of job postings asking for skill in Amazon Web Services increased 76 percent between June 2015 and June 2016. Salesforce.com saw its own skill mentions increase 37 percent, while DevOps and Cloud rose 35 percent and 28 percent, respectively. Even as they expand their presence in the cloud, companies are also looking for tech professionals who can manage projects, crunch data, and figure out how to make systems run more autonomously. Mentions of 'data science' as a skill ...
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In his session at Cloud Expo, Robert Cohen, an economist and senior fellow at the Economic Strategy Institute, will provide economic scenarios that describe how the rapid adoption of software-defined everything including cloud services, SDDC and open networking will change GDP, industry growth, productivity and jobs. This session will also include a drill down for several industries such as finance, social media, cloud service providers and pharmaceuticals.
Jul. 29, 2016 02:15 PM EDT Reads: 350
IoT generates lots of temporal data. But how do you unlock its value? You need to discover patterns that are repeatable in vast quantities of data, understand their meaning, and implement scalable monitoring across multiple data streams in order to monetize the discoveries and insights. Motif discovery and deep learning platforms are emerging to visualize sensor data, to search for patterns and to build application that can monitor real time streams efficiently. In his session at @ThingsExpo, ...
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Choosing the right cloud for your workloads is a balancing act that can cost your organization time, money and aggravation - unless you get it right the first time. Economics, speed, performance, accessibility, administrative needs and security all play a vital role in dictating your approach to the cloud. Without knowing the right questions to ask, you could wind up paying for capacity you'll never need or underestimating the resources required to run your applications.
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"delaPlex is a software development company. We do team-based outsourcing development," explained Mark Rivers, COO and Co-founder of delaPlex Software, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 18th Cloud Expo, held June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY.
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ReadyTalk has expanded the capabilities of the FoxDen collaboration platform announced late last year to include FoxDen Connect, an in-room video collaboration experience that launches with a single touch. With FoxDen Connect, users can now not only engage in HD video conferencing between iOS and Android mobile devices or Chrome browsers, but also set up in-person meeting rooms for video interactions. A host's mobile device automatically recognizes the presence of a meeting room via beacon tech...
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Ovum, a leading technology analyst firm, has published an in-depth report, Ovum Decision Matrix: Selecting a DevOps Release Management Solution, 2016–17. The report focuses on the automation aspects of DevOps, Release Management and compares solutions from the leading vendors.
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UpGuard has become a member of the Center for Internet Security (CIS), and will continue to help businesses expand visibility into their cyber risk by providing hardening benchmarks to all customers. By incorporating these benchmarks, UpGuard's CSTAR solution builds on its lead in providing the most complete assessment of both internal and external cyber risk. CIS benchmarks are a widely accepted set of hardening guidelines that have been publicly available for years. Numerous solutions exist t...
Jul. 29, 2016 11:00 AM EDT Reads: 811


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Comfort Inn Hadley - Amherst, Hadley
- Free buffet breakfast, free WiFi, and free parking
Main amenities
- 86 smoke-free guestrooms
- Indoor pool
- Fitness center
- 24-hour business center
- 24-hour front desk
- Coffee/tea in a common area
- Air conditioning
- Computer station
- Front desk safe
- Self-serve laundry
- Meeting rooms
- Free newspapers in the lobby
What's around
- Hadley Farm Museum (1 mi / 1.7 km)
- Porter Phelps Huntington Museum (2.6 mi / 4.2 km)
- Amherst College (3.4 mi / 5.5 km)
- Emily Dickinson Museum (3.7 mi / 5.9 km)
- Eric Carle Museum of Picture Book Art (3.8 mi / 6.2 km)
Comfort Inn Hadley - Amherst, Hadley
Hotel Info: 855-239-9246from $90
- Suite, 2 Queen Beds
- Standard Double Room, 2 Double Beds, Non Smoking
- Standard Room, 1 King Bed, Non Smoking
- standard 2 doubles smoking
- Standard Room, 2 Queen Beds, Smoking
- Standard Room, 2 Queen Beds, Non Smoking
- Standard Room, 1 Queen Bed, Non Smoking
Also popular with travelers from the USA
At a glance
Key facts
Hotel size
- This hotel has 86 rooms
- This hotel is arranged over 2 floors
- Check-in time starts at 4 PM
- Check-out time is 11 AM
Required at check in
- Credit card or cash deposit required
- Government-issued photo ID required
Travelling with others
- Children (18 years old and younger) stay free when occupying the parent or guardian's room, using existing bedding
- Pets not allowed
- Pets allowed (dogs and cats only) *
- Specific rooms only, restrictions apply *
- 2 per room
Extra people
- Roll-away beds available, charges may apply*
- Free WiFi in public areas
- Free WiFi in rooms
- Free self parking
- RV/bus/truck parking
Other information
- Smoke-free property
Nearby Two Star Hadley hotels
In the hotel
- Free buffet breakfast
- Coffee/tea in a common area
- Indoor pool
- Fitness facilities
- 24-hour business center
- Meeting rooms
- Conference space size (feet) - 630
- Conference space size (meters) - 57
- One meeting room
- Computer station
- 24-hour front desk
- Laundry facilities
- Free newspapers in lobby
- Number of buildings/towers - 2
- Safe-deposit box at front desk
- In-room accessibility
In the room
- Air conditioning
- Coffee/tea maker
- Iron/ironing board
- Shower/tub combination
- Hair dryer
- Cable TV channels
- Desk
- Free WiFi
- Free local calls
- Refrigerator (on request)
- Microwave (on request)
Top Hadley hotels
Recently reviewed hotels in Hadley
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"This was a nice hotel for the price. The bed and pillows were very comfortable. "Jul 25, 2016
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"Helpful manager when we arrived late. Simple room but adequate for our needs."Jul 24, 2016
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"Place is pretty ordinary to look at both inside and out, but considering the price it was a good deal. Staff was very helpful and I was impressed by the cleanliness of the room. I…"Jul 24, 2016
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"The staff were great (Anna in the restaurant is a gem!). But, I wasn't eligible to earn bonus Marriott reward points for declining housekeeping service for a 2 night stay because…"Jul 17, 2016
Nearby hotels
Comfort Inn Hadley - Amherst, Hadley's small print
Also known as
- Comfort Inn Hadley
- Comfort Inn Hotel Hadley
- Comfort Inn Hadley Amherst Hotel
- Comfort Inn Hadley Amherst
- Comfort Hotel Hadley
Pet-friendly rooms can be requested by contacting the property at the number on the booking confirmation.
Optional extras
Rollaway beds are available for USD 10.00 per night
Safes in guestrooms can be used for USD 1.50 per night
Pets are allowed for an extra charge of USD 25-35 (may vary based on length of stay)
We have included all charges provided to us by this hotel. However, charges can vary, for example, based on length of stay or the room you book.
Recent reviews
Good 3.9 /5 from 227 reviews
I stayed here for a wedding held nearby. It was ok for one night, but man this place is tired looking. Though clean, the room hasn't been updated in 30 years at least. Bed wasn't very comfortable.
we went to Hadley Mass to see a music fest up the road. The hotel was perfect for the kids with the pool. The staff were very friendly
Just a clean, beautiful hotel. Very nice staff and comfortable room.
I would not stay here again, pool was slimy, non smoking room smelled of smoking, room looked dirty and had sticky floors
On a three day stay for UMASS orientation. Room was a bit small, but perfect for our reason to be there.
Is the description of this hotel not correct? Tell us


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Matchless Stove & Chimney - Glenmont, NY
Writes up and processes sales in a professional manner and in accordance with company guidelines. Gas fireplace sales and service....
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Professional Sales Consultant. Seeking High Energy Individuals to Join our Professional Sales Team! Attends sales meetings....
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Maintain sales contracts and bookings. Monitor monthly agronomy sales and expense reports. Make regular sales calls on current and potential customers...
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Optimize Sales Opportunities. Be a genuine professional dedicated to providing unbeatable customer service....
Sales Consultant - Roofing & Siding
Venture Construction Group - Fairfax, VA
Looking for key sales professionals for long term positions offering growth and sales management potential. Experienced professionals with roofing, construction...
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Best Buy - Pleasant Hill, CA
What are the Professional Requirements of a Sales Consultant? Support sales strategies in partnership with the Sales Manager to achieve operating results,...
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Prospecting Skills, Meeting Sales Goals, Motivation for Sales, Selling to Customer Needs, Client Relationships, People Skills, Product Knowledge, General Math...
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We are looking for a professional and outgoing Sales Consultant to join us in building and representing our brand....
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Bachelor's degree or equivalent professional experience required. Strong Microsoft product groups, sales and executive relationships....
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Shottenkirk Automotive Group - Mount Pleasant, IA
Due to recent management promotions we need sales professionals in our Shottenkirk Mt. Professional growth opportunities are huge and we realize that the BEST...


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In this week's Top 5, we highlight open source security, problem solving Linux problems, a Raspberry Pi project for hamsters, an artist who loves Linux, and the most popular Python IDEs.
On my 21st birthday in 1998, I received a phone call from Richard Stallman, founder of the GNU Project and Free Software Foundation (FSF), to tell me the root password of the GNU Project's web server.
Nicole Engard summarizes Jono Bacon's keynote, The new era of community, at All Things Open 2015.
Tinkerer Michelle Leonhart shares how she tracks her hamsters' activity levels with a Raspberry Pi.
Cesar Brod shares how he discovered Linux during the famous Tanenbaum-Torvalds debate.
Why open source code is not enough, but it's the right place to start as we move to more interconnected systems.
Chelsea Moll tells us about SparkFun's new IoT-inspired video series.
Sreenivas Alapati shares how a love for Linux led to a career in visual effects and a commitment to producing art using open source tools.
Hello, open gaming fans! In this week's edition, we take a look at the Linux-based gaming console DragonBox Pyra, a new Pick of the Week, Linux games, and more. Open gaming roundup for October 17 - 23, 2015
In this week's edition of our open source news roundup, we take a look at the U.K. moving away from proprietary software, France voting to adopt more open source, a new version of BeagleBoard hitting the market for Christmas, and more news. Open source news for October 17-23, 2015


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Square registers Type-1, 2 and 3 trademarks
Square's been registering more new trademarks in relation to Final Fantasy Type-0, following the registering of a trademark and logo related to the same name at the end of December.
Three new trademarks and logos by the name of Type-1, Type-2 and Type-3 have been registered by Square in Europe, making the whole scenario even more intriguing.
The publisher registered earlier this month the finalfantasytype0.com and finalfantasytype-0.com domains, both of which are linked to Square's Japanese headquarters.
It was discovered earlier this week it had also registered the domain "FinalFantasy13-2game.com", suggesting that a XIII-2 announcement may not be far off.
We should hopefully find out what it's up to when it has its scheduled First Production Department Event this Tuesday.
Thanks, PSInformer.
Sometimes we include links to online retail stores. If you click on one and make a purchase we may receive a small commission. For more information, go here.


text:
Board Meeting Minutes
April 18, 2016
Present: John Lichtenberger, Jan Gauvain, Coleen Hilton, Tommy Potts, Scott Price, Rev. Ellen Debenport
Absent: Marianne Calvanese, Tim Alderman, Patrick Dattore, Andrea Ballentine
Also present: Kit Holmes
6:33 pm - Pray in – Ellen
Check in
Approve March minutes by voice vote
6:50 pm – Volunteer Appreciation Dinner debrief
The dinner April 8 was a wonderful evening with great help from volunteers. Judy Davoust, who headed this dinner, will write up procedures for next year. She said she would do it again, but the board believes she took on too many tasks herself. We need backups for each task, in case someone can't do what they promised.
Some discussion of food options in addition to pasta:
We have room for two more tables but not enough dinnerware. Board members could give up their reservations and create 10 more spaces.
Loved the round tables – the room felt less crowded, and more people tablehopped.
Tim Alderman was not present but sent a list of comments with Jan Gauvain. They both questioned why we are feeding deer and, for that matter, birds.
7:05 pm – Abundance (John)
P&L for first quarter shows net loss, but tithing and gifts are up 22 percent from last year. The first quarter included $19,522 expense for facility. Payroll has gone up a bit and now includes Ellen's health insurance (which was previously a separate expense item).
Tithing - $1,640 left after 10-10-20 percent split to UWM, UWH, Bring It Home
7:15 pm – Minister and Staff Report (Ellen)
Sunday, April 17, we heard a short presentation about the possibility of putting a hearing loop in the sanctuary to connect with T-coils in hearing aids. Eleven people returned cards of interest and pledged $1,350. Some, including Coleen Hilton, are concerned about the electromagnetic field this would create. More info is being gathered. Lori Gosnell is heading this project.
Cherie closed on two CFO exchanges. Two other people would like to invest $30,000 and $35,000 in CFO, but the program is not officially open again until 2018.
(The board took a break during this presentation to see a double rainbow outside.)
Vision and Survey Review
Brief discussion of the notes from last month's board visioning session, and the results of a survey asking what people love about the church. Both attached.
Howling Moon
Ellen presented the staff's current thinking on how to refresh and streamline Howling Moon.
First, make the Christmas Party at Jeff and Cindy Anderson's house this year an opportunity for year-end giving. Put a big bowl on a table and have people bring their checks. It emphasizes year-end giving, makes the Christmas Party more meaningful, and takes the pressure off Howling Moon to fill the entire budget gap.
On Howling Moon:
No advance ticket sales; sell them all at the door
No $2,000 drawing
Be honest about who attends
Focus auctions on people and services
The ideas were well-received, and the general consensus was that we will find someone or a small group of key people to head Howling Moon. Also eager to hear ideas from Darrow Harris.
8 pm – Ellen prays out
March 21, 2016
Present: Patrick Dattore, John Lichtenberger, Tommy Potts, Andrea Ballentine, Scott Price, Marianne Calvanese, Rev. Ellen Debenport
Absent: Tim Alderman, Jan Gauvain, Colleen Hilton
Also present: Cherie Conway, Kit Holmes, Santa Heinemann
6:34 pm – Andrea pray in
7:09 pm - Approve minutes for January, officer elections, February
7:10 pm – Abundance (Cherie)
Income is way ahead of budget, and we're doing better this year than last year at this time. But some major projects are pending.
percentages to Unity, Unity Worldwide and the Bring It Home Fund
$1000 to Cindy Millonzi
$640 to Hays County Food Bank
Signatories for Ozona Bank
MOTION: Update Ozona Bank Checking Accounts signature authorization as follows: John Lichtenberger moves, Tommy Potts seconds
General Fund 1004-0909
Sinking Fund 1005-1864
Board President—John Lichtenberger
Board Treasurer—Patrick Dattore
Business Manager—Cheryl G. Conway
as soon a possible
7:25 pm - Ministers and Staff Reports (Ellen)
7:35 pm – Money counting
When Patrick can't be at church to count money, he will first contact Scott to be his backup. Cherie needs to know who is counting each Sunday. Richard Newsum continues to be the regular counter, but bylaws require two people to count.
7:50 pm – Visioning
Kit Holmes led the board in a visioning meditation about the church and its future, asking:
We debriefed onto a flip chart and talked at length about what we love about the church, what might be missing and what the future could look like. Andrea and Tommy agreed to explore small group programs.
We ended by talking about Howling Moon and whether we want it to continue, whether we really need fund raisers, and how to expand the giving consciousness of the congregation. To be continued next month.
9:30 pm – Andrea prayed out
Feb. 15, 2016
Present: Coleen Hilton, Marianne Calvanese, Scott Price, John Lichtenberger, Tim Alderman, Patrick Dattore, Tommy Potts, Andrea Ballentine, Rev. Ellen Debenport
Absent: Jan Gauvain
Also: Judy Davoust
6:30 pm – Pray In – Tim Alderman
January minutes will be next month
6:53 pm – Volunteer Appreciation Dinner, April 8, 5 pm
Judy Davoust has volunteered to be project manager. She will be here Thur-Fri to set up.
Judy will talk to Cherie about tables
7:30 pm- Abundance
John – wonderful and blessed; general fund $17,356 end of January; from that, $5,000 was moved in February to Reserves for Chaparral A/C
$1,200 still in Peace Park restricted fund
In this discussion, the board opposed ever returning restricted funds to general fund.
Tithes - $2,203 after standing tithes to Unity World HQ, UWM and UWM's Bring It Home Fund
Tim moves, Tommy seconds – approved
7:50 pm - Minister and staff reports (Ellen)
The board discussed Howling Moon, particularly whether to raise the admission price. They reluctantly said $35 might be all right, and also suggested a lower price for early bird ticket buyers. Keep the $2,000 drawing.
The discussion turned to ways Howling Moon could be marketed inside and outside the church. John Lichtenberger said he would check with his PR team, Coleen has a friend who does grassroots marketing, Ellen said a new couple, Wayne and Debbie Baumgarten, have a marketing company.
8:23 pm - Vision/Mission (Marianne)
The Mission/Vision team (Marianne Calvanese, Scott Price, Jan Gauvain and Dylan Ebs) came back with suggestions.
Vision (we agreed on this last month)
We are an open-hearted spiritual community, powerfully transforming our world by honoring the sacred in all.
Proposed Mission – Through the unfolding of our shared spiritual awakening, we offer practices to empower all to live healthy, abundant and meaningful lives.
(lots of discussion using the Unity Branding Identity Map and thesaurus)
Agreed Mission: Inspired by our shared spiritual awakening, we offer practical teachings that empower healthy, abundant and meaningful living.
Aiming to present these at Sunday service on March 13.
Marianne suggested including someone who was involved in the 2008 Vision/Mission statements to help present the new ones. She will contact Richard Newsum.
8:42 pm – report on UWM Winter Meeting in Florida (Tim)
8:55 pm – Tim prays out
Board Meeting after Annual Meeting
January 24, 2016
Present: Ellen Debenport, Scott Price, Jan Gauvain, Patrick Dattorre, Marianne Calvanese, Andrea Ballentine, Tommy Potts
Absent: Tim Alderman, Coleen Hilton, John Lichtenberger
The board met briefly to elect officers:
-John Lichtenberger, president
-Jan Gauvain will remain vice president
-Patrick Dattor will take over as treasurer
-Marianne Calvanese will be secretary, but Ellen will record the meeting minutes
January 18, 2016
Present: Ellen Debenport, Tommy Potts, Patrick Dattorre, Marianne Calvanese, Tim Alderman, Jan Gauvain, Scott Price, Andrea Ballentine, John Lichtenberger, Coleen Hilton
Correction to December minutes: Lori Gosnell in charge of silent auction for 2016 howling moon; no HUG meeting scheduled for January
Tithe: in addition to UWM and Bring it Home, we will give $1000 to Swan Song, $1000 to Wimberley Valley Watershed Association, and $333 ReTreet.org
Minister and Staff Reports
Ellen presented a lengthy list of the goings on around the church and with her staff including:
• Annual meeting scheduled for January 24
• All church clean up on March 19th
• Guest speaker Esther Nicholson on April 24
• Youth semi-annual fundraiser calendar sale featuring photos of the 12 powers quilts on sale during February
Open carry
Any and all guns are banned in church. We can ask folks to take their guns back to their cars. If they refuse, call the sheriff. We will not be posting signs. Patrick suggested we have a written statement should we be challenged, but the majority of the group felt that isn't necessary.
Ellen presented hand out and showed us webpage options on the big screen. Everyone was supportive and excited about the project, which will begin in February and take the remainder of the year to complete
Vision/Mission statement
Marianne reported on the committee's progress
Annual meeting January
Ellen will present year in review/year ahead. Cherie will review financials. Jan will run the election, and Judy Bradbury will talk about nominating committee.
Volunteer appreciation
Friday April 8th; Tim will ask Judy Davoust to manage it.
Board orientation
Not this year since there are no new members
Dec. 21, 2015
Present: Marianne Calvanese, Patrick Datorre, Jan Gauvain, Tommy Potts, Ellen Debenport, John Lichtenberger, Andrea Ballentine, Tim Aldermen, Scott Price
Absent : Coleen Hilton
Guests: Susan Drews, Kit Holmes, Susan Cranshaw
Budget presenter: Cherie Conway
Budget Review
Cherie Conway presented the budget for 2016 with the following being some of the highlights:
See attached spreadsheet for more detail and explanation on last year's and this year's budgets. Everyone voted in favor of approving the new budget.
During the budget discussion when the topic of Howling Moon fundraiser came up and the question was asked as to why it didn't earn more money, Tommy proposed that perhaps it wasn't held on the best possible date. He volunteered to look into finding a possible new date for next year. Patrick offered to help him explore/evaluate if there are competing fundraisers and/or events, i.e., Formula One on the current date.
Ellen's contract
Tim proposed changing the new computer allowance from $1200 every 5 years to every 3-5 years. With that change being made everyone voted in favor of approving Ellen's updated contract.
Vision and Mission statements
Marianne reported on the committee's progress on reworking the vision statement. All agreed that we need vision and mission statements that reflect who we are now. What the group presented so far: "We are an open hearted, spiritual community, powerfully transforming our world by knowing/ honoring/respecting/realizing the sacred in all". Everyone was excited about changing the current "us" to "all".
We decided not to call a HUG meeting to introduce the new statements. Scott offered the idea of the committee presenting the new mission a few weeks ahead at a Sunday service as part of the announcements highlighting the contrast between old and new in order to vote on it at the January 24th annual meeting.
Treasurer's report
After tithing to Unity, UWM and the Bring it Home Fund, we are left with $1560 to disperse:
Staff reports
Nominating Committee
Marianne Calvanese and Tommy Potts are the candidates for the 2016 board election
Beyond the Walls
Marilyn Van Hoozer has a relationship with social workers working with elder population on Pine Ridge Indian Reservation where we donated money for blankets. Tim would like to get more information from Marilyn on how we can help. Some of us expressed our appreciation that we have an opportunity to address the needs of the aged as well as the children.
Website change
Tim addressed the opportunity for us to convert our website to the UWM website. There are grants to help pay for the conversion. The advantage is for us to streamline our access to Unity information and resources. Ellen will check in to how much IT work is involved and what other church's experiences have been with the conversion (including Karen Tudor at New Braunfels Unity).
Finally, Tim introduced a desire to post tithe recipient thank you notes for church members to see. Possibly on the Unity of Wimberley Facebook page?
Tim prayed us out. Next meeting set for January 18th.
Nov. 16, 2015
Present: Ellen Debenport, Tim Aldermen, Andrea Ballentine, Tommy Potts, Marianne Calvenese, Coleen Hilton
Absent: Patrick Dattore, Jan Gauvain, John Lichtenberger, Scott Price
In John's absence, Ellen and Tim stated that we are in "great shape". Tithe: $842 to WWM and Bring it Home Fund, leaving $2527 to disperse. For their service to Howling moon, $1200 to Cherie Conway and $300 to Lawry Ross; $500 to Capital Area Food Bank; $500 to purchase a stove for the St. Bonaventure Navajo School; leaving $27 to Heifer International for a flock of chickens.
Staff Reports
Staff changes: Caroline Harper is no longer on the church staff because of work obligations, but will continue as a volunteer. Jason will continue to work 5-6 hours on maintenance and repairs while Lori Gosnell will spend 10 hours a week as property manager and 5 hours as an administrator with a focus on learning how to back up Cherie on CFO, real estate etc. John Falcon is the house manager with Don Thompson as his back up.
• the front porch will be jack hammered to connect the culverts on each side to facilitate greater drainage; $1500 was anonymously donated for this project.
• Cynthia Millonzi is ready to get back on track with her labyrinth team
• The possibility of paying Susan Drews $100 a month as a consultant for her work on our wildlife exemption is being considered
• Annual Christmas party will be on Dec 11 at Ralph and Judith Ruth's house; a Martin Driscoll painting will be raffled
• Dec 6 potluck will be the annual men's group turkey dinner
• Dec 1 youth group setting up and running Christmas store
Reworking Vision and Mission Statement
Marianne reported on the brainstorming ideas from the committee formed to address this topic. Committee members are Marianne, Scott Price, Jan Gauvain and youth member Dylan Ebbs. Tim suggested we have a HUG meeting in January in order to involve the congregation in reworking our mission and exploring how we can go "beyond the walls". Perhaps present the base mission and then have the members break into groups.
Beyond the walls
Coleen suggested we address the mental health needs of the Lakota people. They have a very high rate of suicide among their youth. The Lakota tribe is known for being spiritually connected to the earth and not political. We also discussed donating money to provide blankets to Indians in South Dakota and decided to wait until after the Christmas store to introduce it to the congregation.
Ellen's contract hasn't been touched or amended since 2011. She presented us with copies with a few proposed changes to review. Ellen will continue to work on it and bring it back for approval at the next board meeting on December 21.
Oct. 26, 2015
Present: Rev. Ellen Debenport, Tim Alderman, Scott Price, Tommy Potts, Marianne Calvanese, Coleen Hilton, Jan Gauvain, John Lichtenberger
Absent: Andrea Ballentine, Patrick Dattore
Also: Kit Holmes, Cindy Millonzi
6:32 pm – John prays in
September minutes approved as amended
6:50 pm – Financials (John)
Note we have about $5,000 more in income than budgeted for this point in the year, but we've also spent about $5,000 more than budgeted. So we're fine.
Tithing – base amount of $2600
10 percent to UWM's Bring It Home Fund
10 percent to Unity World Headquarters
20 percent to Unity Worldwide Ministries
$1,560 split three ways ($520 each):
Southwest Indian Foundation
Carebox program at Color Cancer in Austin
Crisis Breadbasket
7:00 pm – Minister and Staff Reports
Visitor Table -- The board decided to discontinue its schedule for staffing the visitor table in the foyer, because that area is usually so crowded with greeters. Instead, board members will gravitate to the bookstore after the service. The board also wants to reinstate a 20 percent discount in the bookstore when visitors' blue cards are returned.
Ellen will let Jean Newsum know about the visitor table change.
Ellen also reported:
7:10 pm -- Howling Moon
The board debriefed the Howling Moon event on Oct. 23, and Rev. Ellen offered preliminary fund-raising numbers.
Gross profit $24,805
Expenses $6,743
Net income $18,062
Percentage to Operation Good Shepherd $4,515
Which leaves $13,547 for the church. That's a smaller number than last year, but we are grateful! Expenses were also lower than last year, thanks to the church members who underwrote some of the big ticket items.
Rev. Ellen said organizers Cherie Conway and Lawry Ross were discouraged by the results and were already talking about ideas to change parts of Howling Moon for next year. The board is amenable to changes.
7:28 pm – Drum Kit
Kit Holmes mentioned that she would like to have a drum kit that can stay at the church, as well as a bass amp. That way, guest musicians won't have to carry so much equipment with them. Drummer Ric Furley is looking for a used drum kit that might run about $500, and Jason Marion will bring an amp.
7:30 pm – Beyond Our Walls (Tim)
The board had a lengthy discussion about how we might reach outside the church to do good in the world, working with organizations and also finding programs our youth could connect with.
Tim likes Native Americans, and said a woman in the church has a daughter working with a tribe to help kids read in the summer and to provide blankets in winter. The Southwest Indian Foundation asks for help buying wood stoves every year.
Other Unity churches have built beds for children in Central America. There's no shortage of good causes, but how to decide?
Marianne suggested we revise our 2008 Vision and Mission statements to reflect better who we are now and how we want to show up in the world, recognizing the sacredness of all beings. Our goal should be to help with real transformation, not just giving money, she said, although the board agreed our tithing has made a real difference to some organizations.
(As an aside, the board agreed we should share with the congregation the thank-you notes we receive for tithes, via the newsletter, announcements or bulletin board.)
Tim also noted that a new Unity Connect program allows churches to share information about their projects online, so that several small churches can work together, if they choose.
Coleen suggested we find a way to involve younger kids, not just the teens.
At the end, Tim asked Marianne to lead a subgroup with Jan Gauvain and Scott Price, along with 11-year-old Dylan Ebbs, to talk about the Vision and Mission statements and possible projects. Other board members were also asked to bring ideas for projects to the next meeting, as long as it's someplace close enough that we could travel there.
The goal is to present ideas to the congregation at the annual meeting on Jan. 24, 2016, then schedule a HUG meeting to talk about which project is most appealing to everyone. Pulling together for one cause seems like the next step in our church's growth, and Ellen said she is asked more and more often by new members what the church is doing beyond its walls.
Pray Out – John
Sept. 29, 2015
Present: Ellen Debenport, Andrea Ballentine, Tommy Potts, Patrick Dattori, Tim Alderman, Marianne Calvanese, Coleen Hilton, John Lichtenberger, Jan Gauvain
Absent: Scott Price
John reported on Cherie's financial reports. Accounts are healthy and tithes/giving is up.
Tithing Discussion
Marianne compiled and shared an extensive list of past tithe recipients, and we discussed how to utilize this list and how to move forward with it in the future. Ultimately, we decided that we would be grateful to Cherie for continuing to update this list and to add a place on her spreadsheet explaining why we chose each recipient.
The conversation went on to discuss more on how our tithes are distributed. We decided to include in our monthly giving the UWM Bring it Home Fund (established to pay for the transfer of the seminary from Unity World Headquarters to UWM.) We decided from now on we will give 10% to World Headquarters and 10% to Bring It Home Fund, while continuing 20% to Unity Worldwide Ministries, leaving a base of $1,560 to disperse each month.
For this month:
$520 will go to the Carebox cancer support program
$1,060 to the Bring it Home fund (in addition to 10%)
YOU fundraiser
Who decides where they will tithe on the proceeds from their fundraisers? They do, providing they have been educated on the requirement that tithes go to organizations that spiritually feed us and/or demonstrate Unity principals in action.
Nominating committee board representative
Each year before board member elections, a committee is formed to decide on candidates. This committee is made up of the minister, a board member, and a congregant. Colleen Hilton will join Jason Jones and Ellen to determine this year's ticket.
Staff report - Ellen
• Susan Drews is determined to address the wild hog problem. Cherie is investigating hiring trappers.
• Jason painted Ellen's bedroom
• Texas Disposal is our new trash service
• Many volunteers have been maintaining our grounds
• Jeff did his "big mow"
• The pool is $5,000 in the black; enough to cover our expenses for the rest of the year
• Lisa Cole's inquiry into solar heating proved that the cost is astronomical
• Wildlife inspection set for October 7 (question of paying Susan a monthly stipend for the work she does to prepare for this - to be discussed at a later time)
• Jason consulted with an architect regarding knocking out the wall and reconfiguring the space between the Fireside Room, the bookstore and the Little Chaparral room.
Ellen's report
• Prayer workshops showed there is a demand for more of these
• Lessons in Truth book discussion starting October 21 for 5 weeks
• Seven or eight potential new members
• Ralph and Judith Ruth will host annual Christmas party on December 11
• Ellen will be replacing Lawry Ross as a board member to the Barnabas Connection
• Santa's hours increased from 10 to 15 hours a week
Peace pole lights
Kimberly Kruger will pay approximately $150 to have 4 solar powered lights aimed at the Peace Pole. The youth group will be in charge of the upkeep of the Peace Pole Park, and Santa is hoping families will take turns caring for it. She and Matt will be in charge of organizing volunteers.
• 147 tickets out of 500 have been sold.
• $6,330 out of a projected $9,000 income has been reached
• Live auction items include 2 time shares, helicopter and airplane rides, and a mountain bike
• Silent auction items are trickling in
• 48 people recruited and assigned jobs
• Lawry Ross is hoping to find a car to borrow while she's in town helping prepare for the event.
And my notes ended with:
This is a HEALTHY CHURCH! Don't take it for Granted!!
Aug. 17, 2015
Present: Tommy Potts, Ellen Debenport, John Lichtenberger, Jan Gauvain, Coleen Hilton, Andrea Ballentine, Marianne Calvanese
Absent: Patrick Dattore, Tim Alderman, Scott Price
Visiting: Kit Holmes
Tithe discussion. We explored options for how to choose the monthly tithe recipient. Marianne offered to compile a list of possibilities for the future. This month we chose the SIMS foundation and HAMM, organizations that provide for local musicians medical and mental health needs.
Ellen provided us with a handout spelling out the different functions of Unity World Headquarters, Unity Worldwide Ministries and Unity South Central Region.
• Wildlife inspection on October 7
• All ACs are working
• Pool awning almost complete
• Lisa Cole is looking into heating the pool with solar
• 10 people attended chaplain training and will be announced on September 6
• 28 people came to strengths workshop
• On September 20 the teens will lead a celebration at the peace pole for International Day of Peace, followed by burgers on the patio and a pool party
• Howling Moon preparation will kick off first Sunday of September
• Introducing a song request auction- 4 top bidders get to choose songs for Kit and the band to play
• 6 youths attended a rally in New Braunfels
• Teens will be taking over "ownership" of Peace Park (peace pole)
• Santa would like to be paid for 5 additional hours a week. Everyone agreed to this but also wanted to make sure Santa asks for help when needed. Ellen agreed to talk to her about making clear and specific requests for help from the board.
• Kit requested that she have an office at the church. Cherie Conway offered hers up. Ellen, without any objection from the board, said Kit can have said office.
Preview of Board nominees
Tommy and Marianne, having agreed to serving one-year terms, are eligible to run again on this next cycle. New nominees will start to be recruited in October.
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