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August: More Esther, Less Mester
The last two weeks of July felt a lot like August typically does. Thin, lethargic trading; somewhat gappy but directionless. Ten-year Treasury note futures held a 1-point range except for a few minutes last Thursday. The S&P oscillated (and it really looks like a simple oscillation) between 2160 and 2175 for the most part (chart source Bloomberg):
In thinking about what August holds, I'll say this. What the stock market (and bond market) has had going for it is momentum. What these markets have had going against them is value. When value and momentum meet, the result is indeterminate. It often depends on whether carry is penalizing the longs, or penalizing the shorts. For the last few years, with very low financing rates across a wide variety of assets, carry has fairly favored the longs. In 2016, that advantage is lessening as short rates come up and long rates have declined. The chart below shows the spread between 10-year Treasury rates and 3-month LIBOR (a reasonable proxy for short-term funding rates) which gives you some idea of how the carry accruing to a financed long position has deteriorated.
So now, dwelling on the last few weeks' directionless trading, I think it's fair to say that the markets' value conditions haven't much changed, but momentum generally has surely ebbed. In a situation where carry covers fewer trading sins, the markets surely are on more tenuous ground now than they have been for a bit. This doesn't mean that we will see the bottom fall out in August, of course.
But add this to the consideration: markets completely ignored the Fed announcement yesterday, despite the fact that most observers thought the inserted language that "near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished" made this a surprisingly hawkish statement. (For what it's worth, I can't imagine that any reasonable assessment of the change in risks from before the Brexit vote to after the Brexit vote could conclude anything else). Now, I certainly don't think that this Fed, with its very dovish leadership, is going to tighten imminently even though prices and wages (see chart below of the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker and the Cleveland Fed's Median CPI, source Bloomberg) are so obviously trending higher that even the forecasting-impaired Federal Reserve can surely see it. But that's not the point. The point is that the Fed cannot afford to be ignored.
Accordingly, something else that I expect to see in August is more-hawkish Fed speakers. Kansas City Fed President Esther George dissented in favor of a rate hike at this meeting. So in August, I think we will hear more Esther and less Mester (Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester famously mused about helicopter money a couple of weeks ago). The FOMC doesn't want to crash the stock and bond markets. But it wants to be noticed.
The problem is that in thin August markets – there's no escaping that, I am afraid – it might not take much, with ebbing momentum in these markets, to cause some decent retracements.
Homes Are Where the Heat Is
This week's main event is supposed to be the FOMC meeting. Certainly, for some time now that has been the case: in a week with a Fed meeting, nothing else matters. Knowing this, many investors will probably over-parse the language from the FOMC statement following the meeting, even though there is little to no chance of any policy change at this meeting nor at any of the next few meetings (it certainly would be a huge surprise if the Fed were either to tighten, or even to indicate a growing likelihood of a future tightening, after Cleveland Fed President Mester recently mused about helicopter drops).
In the meantime, though, we have some housing data that is somewhat interesting. New Home Sales were released today, showing a new seasonally-adjusted post-crisis high. To be sure, sales are still well off the bubble highs, but they are back to roughly average for the period prior to the bubble (see chart, source Bloomberg).
New Home Sales is more regular (outside of a bubble) than Existing Home Sales, because additions to the housing stock are partly driven by household formation and that's reasonably constant over long periods of time. The more important number (in part because it is also it is much larger) is Existing Home Sales, which was released last week and looks even stronger (see chart, source Bloomberg).
Existing Home Sales is also affected by household formation, but the level of the aggregate stock of housing matters as well so this measure tends to rise over time. Even so, it looks to be at least back on the long-run trend.
Now, as an inflation scout I spend a lot of time looking at housing. Housing is the largest part of the consumption basket almost everywhere in the world, whether the shelter is owned or rented, and it is an even larger part of the more-stable core inflation basket. If you get housing right, in short, it is hard to be very wrong on inflation overall. This is why I've been persistent in saying that deflation in the US, outside of the energy price collapse, isn't coming any time soon. The rise of home prices in the US, as measured by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index (which becomes more of a mouthful every time someone new buys the index!), has eased to around 5% per annum versus a rebound-inspired 10% in late 2013/early 2014 (see chart, source Bloomberg).
Here is where it pays to be a bit careful. A simple-lag model would predict that rents and owners-equivalent-rents should shortly be declining from current 9-year high rates of increase. But logically, that can't make sense – if home prices rose 5% forever, then obviously rents would eventually rise something like 5% per year as well. This is a case for a distributed-lag model (even better would be distributed lags on real prices, reflecting the fact that if overall inflation rises then the same real home price increase would reflect a higher nominal home price increase, but there isn't enough "exciting" inflation in the last couple decades of data to calibrate that well). And one simple such model, shown below (source: Enduring Investments),[1] suggests that the current level of OER is sustainable even though it currently incorporates the lagged effects of that post-2013 deceleration.
Now, of interest is that all of our models currently predict that rents will continue to rise for a bit, but only for a bit. Shelter inflation seems baked-in-the-cake through 2017, which is as far as our models project, but doesn't seem to have a lot of acceleration left (maybe 0.25%) before levelling off. Having said that, there is another consideration that bears comment. The chart below (source: Bloomberg) shows the S&P CoreLogic CS Index again, this time plotted against the number of "Existing Homes Available for Sale" (and a 12-month moving average of that not-seasonally-adjusted index).
The relationship here is a bit loose, for a bunch of reasons, but the point to be made is this: the inventory of homes for sale has returned to levels that prevailed in the late-90s and early-00s, leading to home price increases in excess of the current 5%-per-annum level. When inventories first fell to this level, there was some fear that a large "shadow inventory" of homes that would have been sold at higher prices would be released into the market, holding down prices. If that has happened, it has been gradual as the inventory of homes actually listed has not risen appreciably in the last three years; moreover, it hasn't held down home prices very well. The upshot is, I think, that home prices are likely to continue to rise by around 5% per year, or possibly faster; this will likely keep upward pressure on rents for the next couple of years.
But, as noted above, the upward pressure on rents will probably be limited from these levels, unless and until prices ex-housing begin to rise more aggressively. We expect them to do so; in any case, current CPI swaps quotes that imply core inflation will be at or below 1.5% for the next three or four years remain egregiously mispriced.
[1] Please contact me, or contact us through our website, if you're interested in inflation-related products and services, including institutional consulting arrangements. Interested in investing in Enduring Investments? We are currently raising equity in the firm through a Crowdfunding campaign. See https://www.crowdfunder.com/enduring-investments-llc/ or contact me for more details as we expect to close subscriptions soon.
Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets
Below is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can (and should!) follow me @inflation_guy or sign up for email updates to my occasional articles here. Investors with interests in this area be sure to stop by Enduring Investments. Plus…buy my book about money and inflation, just published! The title of the book is What's Wrong with Money? The Biggest Bubble of All; order from Amazon here.
- Ah, CPI day!
- Writing today from the skies above…Pennsylvania maybe? Hi Pennsylvania!
- Not sure how well this will work…bear with me.
- Street forecast for core is 0.182% or so m/m, rounding to 0.2% and 2.2% y/y.
- But if core is only 0.187% m/m, y/y will rise to 2.3% after rounding. So a low hurdle for a "surprise"
- Since this year core has averaged 0.208% (and 0.243% ex-March), I suspect a good chance of a 2.3% y/y print.
- Over the next 2 months we have comparisons of 0.173% and 0.155% from year-ago, so core likely rises further.
- As a reminder, median CPI is already at 2.53% and a 7-year high so such a move in core isn't a shock.
- But all that is in the future. We get today's CPI in 14 minutes.
- Note my response to tweet messages will be worse than normal today… from 35,000 feet this is a bit wonky.
- 17% on core. y/y to 2.23% from 2.24%. Be still my heart.
- Have to wait for the breakdown…not trusting numbers at this altitude. But looks like Medical Care jumped. Not sure what went dn then.
- OK, Housing 2.39% from 2.38%. Apparel 0.42% from 0.53%; Medical Care – 3.65% from 3.17%! Small drips elsewhere.
- Core services stayed 3.2% and core goods dripped to -0.6% y/y.
- Within Housing: Primary rents 3.81% from 3.80%. Should keep rising. OER 3.25% from 3.26% ditto.
- Big jump in Lodging Away from Home: small category and volatile but excites some people. Not me.
- Motor vehicles -0.82% from -0.50%, still dragging on core goods.
- In Medical Care: Drugs 3.40% from 2.34%. Yes, >1% acceleration in y/y. Volatile but…
- Balancing that a bit was Professional Services 2.60% from 2.81%. But Hospital Services 4.12% from 3.25%.
- And Health Insurance? +7.10% vs 6.30%. Thanks, ACA.
- With drugs pushing core goods higher, not sure what was going the other way enough to make core goods decelerate some.
- Good Lord they just said we're over Wisconsin. Already?
- Take this projection for Median CPI with a grain of salt, but looks to me like +0.19% and the annual rate stays 2.5%.
- biggest monthly declines were toddlers' apparel, jewelry and watches, footwear, and used cars/trucks.
- biggest monthly gains in fuel oil, motor fuel, car and truck rental, and medical care commodities (drugs).
- core ex-housing still fairly low at 1.37%.
- Overall – core and median inflation still are in rising trends, but nothing particularly alarming about this month's figure.
- Certainly, nothing that is going to turn Pres. Mester from talking about helicopter drops to talking about tightening.
- That's all for now…thanks for bearing with me.
- Be sure to look at our Crowdfunder equity raise: https://www.crowdfunder.com/enduring-investments-llc … The subscription package is up and live!
Last month's core inflation number was not pretty. Medical care rose, rents jumped, and in general it was a sloppy mess. This month is not like that. The story is one of continuing trends: a trend to higher rents, higher medical care inflation; continued weakness in apparel and transportation and other core goods. The key point though is that there is no sign that inflation is about to fall. Whether bottom-up, aggregated from the detailed pricing data, or top-down, looking at money supply growth and possible velocity outcomes, the uptrend in prices looks steady.
While that could change, if interest rates continue to decline and depress money velocity even further, it can't be the null hypothesis at this point. What is amazing is that the market, in its pricing of inflation, has made that the null hypothesis. Breakeven inflation is low, low, low for more than a decade in the future according to the market. Considerably lower than today's core inflation. It is a bet that looks increasingly out-of-whack.
UK Property Price Declines – Rational or Overdone?
A couple of weeks after Brexit, and the world has not ended. Indeed, in the UK the fallout seems relatively tame. Sterling has weakened substantially, which will increase UK inflation relative to global inflation; but it will also help UK growth relative to global growth. That's not a bad tradeoff, compared to predictions of the end-of-days. Although I am not so sure I like the tradeoff from Europe's perspective…
There are a number of UK property funds that have been gated – but this appears to be not so much a Reserve Fund moment, and certainly not a Lehman moment, but just a natural reaction when a fund gives broader liquidity terms than the market for the underlying securities offers.
I think the property panic is probably overdone. It is partly triggered by fears that the financial center is going to leave London. This strikes me as absurd, having worked for several of the institutions that have offices in Canary Wharf. I checked my gut reaction with a friend who actually headed up a large banking institution for a time. His answer was "you are right to be very skeptical: English, availability of workforce, taxation, labor laws, contract law and legal framework. There will be some shifting at the margin but that's it." Brittania is not about to sink beneath the waves, folks.
Were UK property values overinflated? At least UK home prices don't appear much more out-of-whack than US home prices do. The chart below (source: Bloomberg) shows the UK national average home price from the Nationwide Building Society (in white) versus the US median existing home sales price.
The picture looks more concerning if, instead of median home sales, you use the Case-Shiller Home Price Index as a comparison (see chart, source: Bloomberg). But while the CS20 is a superior measure of home prices, I'm always a bit wary of comparing two series that are constructed methodologically very differently. Still, this comparison would suggest UK prices have risen more than their US counterparts.
These comparisons are all on residential property, and I am comparing two markets which are likely both a bit overheated. But the scale of decline in the UK property funds seems to me to be too large relative to the overpricing that may exist, and I suspect it is more due (as I noted above) to the structure of the funds holding the property – which would suggest, in turn, that halting redemptions is the right thing to do to protect existing investors who would be disadvantaged if the portfolio was liquidated into a market that is not designed to have daily liquidity. Of course, the right answer is to not offer those liquidity terms in the first place…
One little niggling detail, however, deserves mention. I noted that UK home prices do not appear terribly out-of-whack relative to US home prices. The problem is that US home prices themselves appear out-of-whack by roughly 15-20%. The chart below (source: Bloomberg; Enduring Investments calculations and estimates) shows median home prices as a multiple of median incomes. What is apparent is that for many years these two series moved in lock-step, until the bubble; the popping of the bubble sent everything back to "normal" but we're back to looking bubbly.
That said, I don't believe the current drop in listed UK property funds is a rational response to correcting bubble pricing, and it's probably a good opportunity for cool-headed investors…and, more to the point, cool-headed investors who aren't expecting to liquidate investments overnight.
Twits and Brits
I want to talk today about some of the really important pieces of information that circulated this weekend. First, I am certain that everyone is familiar with the following chart, which made the rounds after the Brexit vote. It shows an enormous surge in the search term "What is the EU" after the Brexit vote was completed:
This chart, or something very much like it, was all over the place. Oh, wait! I just realized that I forgot to put the axes on the chart! Here it is with a few more relevant pieces of information – incidentally the same information that was left off the original chart. It turns out that it wasn't the chart I thought it was. Sorry about that…they looked the same.
(For the record, after an extended period of indolence, on Thursday I went for a run; on Friday I went for a run before putting on any other shoes first; on Saturday I went for a run and then later put on different shoes to go to a cocktail party.)
Is it too much to ask that people seeking to insult the British voters at least put some effort into their attempt? Ignore for a moment the simple fact that we don't know who was searching this – it might well have been the people who voted to Remain, after all – and so the story line that the people who voted Leave were just morons gets no support from this chart. It also turns out that this was the second-most-searched term only for one small time segment: early in the morning after the vote. By 5am it was eclipsed by questions about the weather. Oh my – it seems the Britons also don't know what weather is! Also, as the Telegraph's skeptical story (linked above) points out, the raw number of people asking the question was only on the order of 1,000 – it was just a massive increase since it hadn't been previously asked very much. This is where not having axes matters…it turns out this is a non-story, and nonsense.
Another piece of nonsense I want to point out is more general. I have seen several Twitter polls and other polls in something like this form:
Q: What effect do you think that Brexit will have on the global economy?
a) Deeply contractionary
b) Moderately contractionary
c) Somewhat contractionary
d) Expansionary
Now this is nonsense because the actual result not only has nothing to do with opinion, it's not even clear why we would care about people's opinion in this case (unless we are trying to show how pervasive the negative news stories are, or something). Polls work comparatively well when there is not a lot of information inequality – for example, when each person is asked about his or her own vote. But the poll above is analogous to this poll:
I submit that only me, and my valet, have the information sought by this poll; all other respondents have zero information. Therefore…what's the value of the poll? Unless I or my valet are respondents, precisely zero; if we are, then the value is inverse to the number of other respondents diluting the response of the people who know.
Similarly, there is likely some information asymmetry among respondents to the poll about the effect of Brexit on the global economy. I would respectfully suggest that most people who are responding are saying what they have heard, or what they fear, or what they hope, while some people – macroeconomists, for example – might have actual models. To be sure, those models are probably only slightly better than the fearful and hopeful assumptions put into them, but the point is that this poll is nonsense in the same way that polling people about what they expect inflation next year to be is nonsense. The vast majority of respondents have no way to evaluate the question in a structured way, so what you are capturing is no more and no less than what people are worried about, which is itself just a reflection of what they're seeing and hearing…for example, on Twitter.
(For what it's worth, I think that thanks to the weakening of sterling Brexit is likely to be mildly stimulative to the UK economy, as well as somewhat inflationary, and slightly contractionary and disinflationary to the rest of the world. But the question about global effects is a trick question. Obviously, global production and consumption are unlikely to change much in real terms just due to the arrangement of trade flows. More friction in the system to the extent that Europe puts up significant trade barriers against the UK – something I don't view as terribly likely – will lower global output slightly and raise global prices.)
These flash polls and Google trends data are part and parcel of the Twitterization of discourse. They have in common the fact that they can be snapshot and draw eyeballs and clicks, whether or not there is any content to the observations. In these cases, and in many others, there isn't.
Here's a thought: why don't we wait a few months, or better yet a few years, before we judge the impact of Brexit? Sometimes, having actual data is even better than a Twitter poll.
Britain Survived the Blitz and Will Survive Brexit
So I see today that former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan says this is the worst crisis he has seen. Bigger than the 1987 Crash? Bigger than Long Term Capital? Bigger than the internet bubble collapse? Bigger than the Lehman (et. al.) collapse? Really?
As humans, we tend to have short memories and (ridiculously) short planning horizons. Greenspan, especially in his apparent dotage, has a shorter memory even than he had previously – maybe this is convenient given his record. I don't want to comment on his planning horizon as that would seem uncharitable.
Why is Brexit bad? The trade arrangements and treaties do not suddenly become invalid simply because the UK has voted to throw off the shackles of her overlords and return to being governed by the same rules they've been governed by basically since the Magna Carta. But Jim Bianco crystallized the issue for me this week. He pointed out that while Brussels could let this be a mostly painless transition, it has every incentive to make it as painful as possible. In Jim's words, "if it isn't painful then hands shoot up all over Europe to be the next to leave." That's an astute political observation, and I think he's right. The EU will work hard to punish Britain for having the temerity to demand sovereignty.
But Britain survived the Blitz; they will survive Brexit.
Indeed, Britain will survive longer than the Euro. The sun is beginning to set on that experiment. The first cracks happened a few years ago with Greece, but the implausibility of a union of political and economic interests when the national interests diverge was a problem from the first Maastricht vote. Who is next? Will it be Greece, Spain, Italy, or maybe France where the anti-EU sentiment is higher even than it is in the UK? The only questions now are the timing of the exits (is it months, or years?) and the order of the exits.
As I said, as humans we not only have short memories but short planning horizons. From a horizon of 5 or 10 years, is it going to turn out that Brexit was a total disaster, leading to a drastically different standard of living in the UK? I can't imagine that is the case – the 2008 crisis has had an effect on lifestyles, but only because of the scale and scope of central bank policy errors. In Iceland, which addressed the imbalances head-on, life recovered surprisingly quickly.
These are all political questions. The financial questions are in some sense more fascinating, and moreover feed our tendency to focus on the short term.
A lot of money was wagered over the last few weeks on what was a 52-48 proposition the whole way. The betting markets were skewed because of assumptions about how undecideds would break, but it was never far from a tossup in actual polling (and now perhaps we will return to taking polling with the grain of salt it is usually served with). Markets are reacting modestly violently today – at this writing, the US stock market is only -2.5% or so, which is hardly a calamity, but bourses in Europe are in considerably worse shape of course – and this should maybe be surprising with a 52-48 outcome. I like to use the Kelly Criterion framework as a useful way to think about how much to tilt investments given a particular set of circumstances.
Kelly says that your bet size should depend on your edge (the chance of winning) and your odds (the payoff, given success or failure). Going into this vote, betting on Remain had a narrow edge (52-48) and awful odds (if Remain won, the payoff was pretty small since it was mostly priced in). Kelly would say this means you should have a very small bet on, if you want to bet that outcome. If you want to bet the Leave outcome, your edge was negative but your odds were much better, so perhaps somewhat larger of a bet on Brexit than on Bremain was warranted. But that's not the way the money flowed, evidently.
Not to worry: this morning Janet Yellen said (with the market down 2.5%) that the Fed stood ready to add liquidity if needed. After 2.5%? In 1995 she would have had to come out and say that every week or two. A 2.5% decline takes us back to last week's lows. Oh, the humanity!
Just stop. The purpose of markets is to move risk from people who have it to people who want it. If, all of a sudden, lots of people seem to have too much risk and to want less, then perhaps it is because they were encouraged into taking too much risk, or encouraged to think of the risk as being less than it was. I wonder how that happened? Oh, right: that's what the Fed called the "portfolio balance channel" – by removing less-risky assets, they forced investors to hold more-risky assets since those assets now constitute a larger portion of the float. In my opinion (and this will not happen soon), central banks might consider letting markets allocate risk between the people who want it and the people who don't want it, at fair prices. Just a suggestion.
One final point to be made today. I have seen people draw comparisons between this episode and other historical episodes. This is refreshing, since it reflects at least some thoughtful attempt to remember history. Not all of these are apt or useful comparisons; I saw one that this is the "Archduke Ferdinand" moment of this generation and that's just nuts. Europe is not a military powderkeg at the moment and war in Europe is not about to begin. But, to the extent that trade barriers begin to rise again, the idea that this may be a "Smoot-Hawley" moment is worth consideration. The Smoot-Hawley tariff is generally thought to have added the "Great" to the phrase "Great Depression." I think that's probably overstating the importance of this event – especially if everybody decides to respect Britons' decision and try to continue trade as usual – but it's the right idea. What I want to point out is that while rising tariffs tend to produce lower growth and lower potential growth, they also tend to produce higher inflation. The fall of the Berlin Wall and the opening of Eastern Europe is one big reason that inflation outcomes over the last few decades have been lower than we would have expected for the amount of money growth we have had. The US has gone from producing all of its own apparel to producing almost none, for example, and this is a disinflationary influence. What would happen to apparel prices if the US changed its mind and started producing it all domestically again? Give that some thought, and realize that's the protectionist part of the Brexit argument.
We can cheer for a victory for independence and freedom, while continuing to fight against any tendency towards economic isolationism. But I worry about the latter. It will mean higher inflation going forward, even if the doomsayers are right and we also get lower growth from Brexit and the knock-on effects of Brexit.
Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets
Below is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can (and should!) follow me @inflation_guy or sign up for email updates to my occasional articles here. Investors with interests in this area be sure to stop by Enduring Investments. Plus…buy my book about money and inflation, just published! The title of the book is What's Wrong with Money? The Biggest Bubble of All; order from Amazon here.
- CPI coming up in 15 mins. Consensus is +0.3% headline +0.2% core, putting y/y core up to 2.2% again.
- Base effects for core suggest better chance for y/y rise for next 4mo or so.
- Stay tuned, 10mins to CPI. In the meantime why not check out our Crowdfunding campaign? https://www.crowdfunder.com/enduring-investments-llc … (Accredited inv only)
- Core CPI +0.203% m/m; y/y rises to 2.235%.
- Core goods remains at -0.5% y/y; core services rises to 3.2%, highest since 2008.
- Housing jumped to 2.37% y/y from 2.11%. Looking at breakdown to see if that's in rents or elsewhere in housing.
- Medical Care had fallen from 3.29% y/y to 2.98% last month. Back up to 3.17%, which is the general trend: higher.
- Apparel flipped to +0.58% y/y vs -0.57% y/y. Only about 5% of core CPI, but a bellwether we've been watching (with little result so far).
- tweeted this earlier…note that strong base effects lifted y/y CPI but next 3 months comparison also easy.
- Within Housing, Primary rents rise to 3.80% from 3.73%. OER jumps HUGE, to 3.264% from 3.147%. Big jump for a big part of basket.
- …and that's not a misprint. All pressures on rents are higher, and remain higher.
- Lodging away from home is small, but was a drag last mo. Not this mo: rises to 3.83% y/y from 1.32%
- In Medical Care, drugs actually fell to 2.34% y/y from 2.84%. But professional svcs 2.81% from 2.26%; Hospital svcs 3.25% v 3.15%
- Health insurance 6.30% y/y from 5.80%.
- y/y change in Health Insurance CPI
- y/y in med care services – resuming uptrend
- optimists can look at core ex-housing and see a rise to only 1.42%. But that's b/c goods carry much more weight in that look.
- W/in transportation, new and used vehicles was actually a drag, -0.50% y/y from -0.27%. That's in core goods.
- y/y core hasn't been above 3% for 20 years. But will be in 2017.
- y/y core hasn't been above 3% for 20 years. But will be in 2017.
- Early estimate of Median CPI…+0.26% m/m with y/y going to 2.53%, a new cycle high.
- Probably a good time to mention the crowdfunding for Enduring Investments again: https://www.crowdfunder.com/enduring-investments-llc… Own an inflation manager!
- Bottom line for today: nothing at all soothing in this report. Upward inflation trend continues.
Nothing at all soothing, indeed. A day after the FOMC chose to stand pat on interest rates, core inflation pushed back higher and median inflation is about to push above 2.5% for the first time since 2009 (when it was on the way down). Of course, nothing about this inflation picture, and the rotten internals that suggest higher figures are in store, would have changed the Fed's decision yesterday. As noted previously in this space, the Yellen Fed fundamentally does not believe that inflation is a threat; if it is a threat, they believe a little inflation is okay if allowing inflation to run hot helps the overall economy and the little guy; and if they later decide inflation does need to be addressed, it can be easily reined in.
They are wrong on all three counts, and we may well be seeing the beginnings of a colossal error. Honestly, the question here is between whether it is only a bad error that is fixable or a colossal error that isn't fixable without much pain. Inflation is headed higher.
And yet, ironically, standing pat on interest rates will slow down the near-term rise in inflation since it will keep money velocity from rising as rapidly as it would if interest rates were rising. The best way to keep cash inert is for alternative investment opportunities to remain poor! But money growth around 7% is too fast, even if velocity merely flatlines. Inflation will continue to rise for the balance of this year and into 2017 (at least).


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Author has written 2 stories for X-Men: Evolution.
Another writer, another set of stories, another hopefully pleasant distraction from the world around you.
I'm Miss Contrary, but that's only the most common of the many names I go by. You need no other.
I'm a long-time lurker, recent writer. My passion lies in all things X-Men, due to a deep and abiding love instilled in me by X-Men: TAS. I have fond memories of staying up late as a child and staring wide-eyed at my television as the characters I came to love went on adventures that I could only match in my dreams.
If I've made you smile, caused you to think, given you some giggles, or even made you cry, please let me know. The highest compliment you can pay any author is to take a couple seconds out of your day to write them a review.
"There are no rules of architecture for a castle in the clouds." - Gilbert K. Chesterton

subset: commoncrawl


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This page requires a MaxPreps membership account.
Don't stress... It's free and easy to setup.
The Howe Bulldogs football team won Friday's home conference game against Callisburg by a score of 28-19.
(November 4, 2011: Howe, TX 75459) In Friday's league match, the host Howe Bulldogs football squad scored a good 28-19 victory over the Callisburg Wildcats.


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Kings Theatre
1:00 pm - 4:00 pm
Rapp & Rapp, 1929; Restoration, Martinez + Johnson, 2015
The historic Kings Theatre reopened its doors in 2015 as one of New York's premier performing arts venues. The Kings was one of the five Loew's "Wonder Theatres" built in New York and New Jersey in the 1920's, featuring high curved ceilings, ornate plaster walls, wood paneling, and a glazed terra-cotta ornamental facade. As a classic 20th-century movie palace, the Kings was inspired by the French Renaissance Revival style of the Palace of Versailles and the Paris Opera House. Visit during OHNY Weekend to take a self-guided tour and speak with theater staff about this remarkable restoration.
Access Notes: The mezzanine level is not wheelchair accessible, though the ground floor is.
Image Credit: Ben Helmer


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Deviled Imperial Crab
|Lump crab meat
|2 Pound (Backfin)
|1 Tablespoon (Durkee's)
|2 Tablespoon
|Worcestershire sauce
|1 Tablespoon (Lea And Perrins)
|Rolled cracker crumbs
|1 Cup (16 tbs)
|1 Tablespoon
|1⁄8 Pound, melted
Combine crab meat, Durkee's dressing, mayonnaise, and Lea and Perrins sauce.
Blend these ingredients lightly so as not to break the crab lumps; mound into 4 or 5 clean hard-crab shells.
Combine paprika with cracker crumbs; pat onto the filled crab shells.
Pour melted butter over crabs immediately before baking.
Into a shallow baking pan pour water to a depth of 1/4 inch; place crabs in a baking pan and bake in a 350-400 degree oven for 12 to 15 minutes.
Finish under broiler if a golden brown color is not reached in the oven.
Rate It
Nutrition Rank
Nutrition Facts
Serving size: Complete recipe
Calories 2451 Calories from Fat 868
% Daily Value*
Total Fat 104 g159.4%
Saturated Fat 32.3 g161.3%
Trans Fat 0 g
Cholesterol 1044.4 mg348.1%
Sodium 8139.8 mg339.2%
Total Carbohydrates 200 g66.8%
Dietary Fiber 18.8 g75.1%
Sugars 60 g
Protein 178 g355.8%
Vitamin A 186.9% Vitamin C 345%
Calcium 102.9% Iron 24.7%
*Based on a 2000 Calorie diet


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Gen. Petraeus falls ill at Senate hearing
How ISIS avoids digital detection
Stalin exiled these sisters. A lifetime later, they're breaking their silence.
Was climate change to blame for Europe's deadly heat wave?
7 hilarious political cartoons inspired by the Democratic National Convention
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The 2016 presidential election: Aspiration versus anxiety
'Fornication': A firing offense?


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Topic: iTunes
With Vinyl's Resurgence, Here's How Brands Are Capitalizing on Music's Most Analog Medium
In a streaming era, records represent a 'premium experience'
By Kristina Monllos on Mar. 7, 2016 - 12:51 AM EST
The resurgence of vinyl has everybody talking, and listening. Maybe you've thumbed through a trend piece in The New York Times, crediting analog-loving millennials as the impetus for the revival. Or,…
Apple Finally Joins Twitter With an Eye Toward Socializing Its Customer Service
Attracts 25,000 followers in 2 hours
By Lauren Johnson on Mar. 3, 2016 - 10:09 AM EST
After years of eschewing social media, Apple has finally joined Twitter. This morning, the Cupertino, Calif.-based brand launched an account to "provide tips, tricks and helpful information when you need…
Heading Into Season 2, Has Serial Sold Advertisers on Podcasting?
Brands finally tune in to 10-year-old medium
By Tim Baysinger on Nov. 29, 2015 - 7:15 PM EST
Serial, a spinoff of the popular This American Life podcast, debuted in October 2014 to little fanfare but would go on to become the digital medium's first monster hit. Listeners…
Verizon Is Giving Away Tons of Free Stuff on One of the Year's Biggest Travel Days
'Thanksgetting' offers Wi-Fi, Amazon downloads
By Kristina Monllos on Nov. 25, 2015 - 12:47 PM EST
Even if you're excited to cram stuffing and turkey down your gullet tomorrow, traveling with the 47 million other people expected to do so this Thanksgiving can be exhausting. Enter: Verizon.…
Agency Bosses Explain the Way Forward in China's Complex, Troubled Marketplace
Near meltdown has altered the landscape
By Jane L. Levere on Oct. 11, 2015 - 8:00 PM EDT
When the Chinese economy stumbled in recent weeks—its stock market shuddered and sputtered and the Yuan currency plummeted in value in August—the entire global marketplace held its breath for a…
Top 10 Branded Videos: Durex's Secret Bedroom Technology Takes Over YouTube
Plus, Air France soars with inside peek of airplane
By Lauren Johnson on Mar. 17, 2015 - 1:31 PM EDT
Durex's clever technology-bashing video is having a reverse effect, racking up 12 million views on this week's Adweek/Tubular top 10 branded video chart. The condom brand's three-minute video punks a group…
World AIDS Day Push Uses Music to Reach Millennials
Coca-Cola exec says 2014 is tipping point for prevention
By Lauren Johnson on Nov. 3, 2014 - 7:00 AM EST
Today marks the beginning of a month-long, music-led campaign leading up to World AIDS Day from Coca-Cola and (RED). This is the third year that Coke has partnered with the organization…
Amazon Customers Could Store Movies in the Cloud if This Deal Goes Through
In talks with studios to join UltraViolet
By Carly Zinderman on Oct. 10, 2014 - 4:07 PM EDT
Amazon is talking with three major movie studios about digital rights in hopes of giving customers better access to the digital movies they buy on the site, according to The…
Programmers Are Frustrated by a Lack of Netflix Metrics
Dearth of viewership data 'runs counter' to industry standards
By Janet Stilson on Jun. 29, 2014 - 7:52 PM EDT
When Breaking Bad scored three Emmy wins last fall, its showrunner, Vince Gilligan, credited Netflix for his show's longevity and for heightening its popularity. Similarly, program execs in general have…
Where Teens Spend Their Time Online When Not on Facebook
A look at the social network's big challengers
By Lucia Moses on Feb. 5, 2014 - 6:12 AM EST
Despite reports that young people are moving away from Facebook, they're still using the social network in big numbers—fully 66 percent of people 14-34 say they're frequent users, according to…


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Hard Work, Pride at Factory Making Humvee Armor
The job of protecting U.S. troops in Iraq from land mines, roadside bombs, rocket-propelled grenades and sniper fire is largely falling on factory workers back home.
At the U.S. Army's Rock Island Arsenal, located on an island in the middle of the Mississippi River between Illinois and Iowa, workers labor around the clock to produce armor for Humvees and supply trucks. It's the Army's only complete, start-to-finish factory for add-on armor kits.
Since production began just over a year ago, the arsenal has sent nearly 3,000 armor kits to Humvees in Iraq and Afghanistan.
On factory floors stretching the length of several football fields, three-eighth-inch thick armor steel is shaped into Humvee and fitted with bullet-proof glass.
Marty Bollman was hired as a temporary worker at the plant last month after losing his job of 24 years at a steel mill that shut down. After being jobless for 10 months, he's not just thankful to be working — he says he has a strong sense of honor and pride in his work.
"You know you're working for something," Bollman says. "It's not just putting a nut and bolt together. This is for the troops and it's a good feeling. It's easy to get up in the morning."
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Frankie Ballard Channels Hendrix at 2016 CMA Music Festival [WATCH]
Frankie Ballard kicked off night two of the CMA Music Festival with a Hendrix-style "Star Spangled Banner."
Frankie Ballard kicked off night two of the CMA Music Festival with a Hendrix-style "Star Spangled Banner."
Yet another free stage has been added to the already great week planned for this year's CMA Music Festival.
The 2016 CMA Music Festival will begin with a special opening ceremony featuring Chris Young.
Blake Shelton and more country stars will make appearances at the Country Music Hall of Fame during the 2016 CMA Music Festival.
The 2016 CMA Music Festival's Riverfront Park stage lineup has been announced.
For the last week we've been featuring a contest on our website called CMA Face-Off where we morphed two country stars' faces together and you had to guess the two celebs.
For years fans have lined up in long lines to get autographs from their favorite country music stars at CMA Music Festival in Nashville. Those long lines may be going away.
It's always been a part of Fan Fair, now CMA Music festival, it's the City of Hope Softball game and this year the roster of Country Stars taking the field has gotten even bigger. If you're heading to Nashville for CMA Fest make sure you get there in time for the game because you are going to see a lot of your favorites!


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Sat Jun 28 2014Caltrans Willits Bypass Permit Suspended
Sat Jun 28 2014Destruction of Little Lake Valley Wetlands Finally Halted After Many Permit Violations
In a move that stunned but was welcomed by long-time opponents, the Army Corps of Engineers (ACE) suspended the permit for the Caltrans Willits Bypass on Friday, June 20. ACE is the agency that regulates impacts on federally protected wetlands. This project has been highly contested, with Native American involvement and over 50 arrests last year.
"This appears to be the first time ACE has ever pulled a permit on an approved project under construction," said Ellen Drell, co-founder of the Willits Environmental Center, one of the project's opponents. "We are surprised and elated that ACE has finally acted, although we have been pointing out the enormous problems with Caltrans' plans for years."
Over 50 people were arrested last year in protests to stop Caltrans' construction and advocate for alternative plans. In addition to the issues of wetlands destruction, a long list of violations of the Migratory Bird Act, Clean Water Act, and numerous permit violations and other habitat threats, it has come to the attention of local Tribes that archaeological sites were buried with new fill without Tribal consultation, as required by law.
Read More | See Also: Ceremony to Protect Wetlands Brings Together Environmentalists, Indigenous People
Previous Coverage: Occupation of the Willits Bypass on Highway 101 | Action Camp to Defend Little Lake Valley Established
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Justin Vineyards criticized for clear-cutting oaks (2 comments) Saturday Jun 11th 4:06 PM
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104 reviews | 4.4 out of 5
Its bigger than i thought, but it may be because my room is average size! But i love it! I love that it grows with baby. Converts to a day bed for when they get older. LOVE the storage spaces. It has 3 shelfs, a hamper for dirty colthes, and a drawer space underneath. The only downfall is i wish the side rail was able to move up and down. But it dont. But its really sturdy, and i love the cider finish!
I love this crib. When I ordered it online I was a lil skeptical because alot of the time you dont get what you think you are getting. I wasnt dissappointed in this product at all. And im more than happy with the color. Its just as beautiful as the pic looks if not better. I do have a couple complaints but that doesnt change the fact that its better than i expected. I read previous reviews before purchasing so i had a good idea of what to expect.heres my complaints... The changing pad on the table doesnt come with a cover and its too small to buy one. Someone suggested a pillow case. I wish the changing table was about 3 inches longer sothat a new contoured changing pad wld fit... The hamper doesnt roll easily on the floor and its not on a track and this is my main complaint... When i was putting the shelves in the back the things that hold the shelf up scraped the stain off all the way down the sides of the shelves. Im just going to get some stain and touch it up. Overall The crib is really sturdy and very beautiful! I cant wait for my daughter to use it. Shes due to be here November 14, 2009
it came in horrible condition! I read of others having the same problems... screw holes not lining up, being left off, pieces damaged, etc... took days to put together. I would recommend buying the crib plenty of time in advance so you can get broken and damaged parts replaced, which I did not do. It was also difficult to find a changing pad cover that works. I only found one, other than that I used receiving blankets. I still do absolutely love the crib and think it is gorgeous, but it was such a hassle!
Assembled this is in about 2 hrs with the help of my 5 year old. Problems I ran into: no pre-drilled holes for the hamper.. so unless you have a power screwdriver/drill it'll be difficult. Also, on the back part of the changer (opposite of the hamper) there are 3 shelves. Well, there were 3 holes missing to put the pegs in for the shelves. Also, when you place the shelves in the holders, you end up scratching them because the tabs don't go wide enough. Baby is not due for about 8 weeks so can't rate on ease of use.
For the money it is a decent crib and it has the attached changing table. I'm still pregnant so I haven't used the crib or the changing table yet but it looks very nice. It took about 2 and 1/2 hours to put togther and as others have mentioned the pre-drilled holes did not line up so we had to drill our own holes. This obviously takes away from the beauty/look of the crib but I think we were able to hide our new holes relatively well. The one drawback so far is two weeks after we put it together with no baby and not moving the crib at all a screw was laying on the floor...it was already stripped with no movement. My husband told me not to worry but I hope there are not any other issues with the screws. (hence the 3 star rating on meeting expectations) It is a very large crib. I wasn't expecting it to be so large but it will turn to a full size bed, not a twin, down the road so that's good news. Also I was expecting the drawer underneath to be attached but it is just on wheels, loose under the crib. It probably said that in the description and I overlooked it. Overall after talking with friends, I'm satisfied with our purchase and I'm sure it will be perfect for a little girl's arrival!
This is a gorgeous crib for the cheap price. Lots of storage spaces for blankets and bath supplies. Easy to assemble too!
We bought this crib for our first baby with the intention of using it for our future children. The wood color is beautiful and looks wonderful. However the wood does ding / dent easily so be careful during setup. My husband setup this up and didn't look carefully enough for the directions thinking they were missing however they are labelled on the frame instruction manuel. And if you need the delta website has the instructions available.
The changer is a nice place to store things and the bottom drawer is also wonderful for storage. The way the rails are setup doesn't allow for a bumper however our hospital didn't recommend bumpers for babies of any age. Overall is a nice crib that we have had no concerns with.
We love this crib. We do not have our little one yet but we put it together and we had a little trouble and thought that the changing table looked a little unstable but after it was all done and put together it was just fine. It looks awesome and i am so excited to actually use it. If you are thinking about getting this crib i highly recommend it. You just have to be kind of patient when you put it together but its worth it in the end.
We bought this bed for our son and we love it. I had our son a month early via c- section and having a changing table attached and up as high as the bed is awsome. I love that the mattress is adjustable. I can not wait for our son to grow and the bed will grow with him.
Easy assembly, sturdy, great product for the price.
My husband and I decided on this crib after much research. We liked the stationary bar and the attached changing table. Plus the fact that we can use it for years to come as the baby grows is a huge money saver! We had the product shipped to the store and the associates helped us out with it. The box is really big, so definately need an SUV or truck to get it home. We had to take it out of the box to fit it in our Honda Accord. The crib was relatively easy to put together. In the directions they referred to parts by letter, but none of the parts had any lables on them! We just went through it all prior to starting and set aside the parts and hardware in sections and it worked out well. The instructions manual has really good pictures and you can figure out what's what easily. The changing table is nice, though I'll probably have to cut a little slit in my pad covers to loop the buckly through. The hamper underneath is nice too, though I may put a little plastic trash can or bag to prevent any contamination or damage from dirty clothes. The stationary rail is so much safer than the drop rails and it's not so high that I can't reach into the crib. Our little man isn't here yet, but I can't wait to lay him in new crib! I feel like this is a high quality product, sturdy and will be durable for years to come. A great value for the money. We bought a mattress sized 52.0 x 27.8 x 5.5 and it fits in perfectly
I brought this crib and i put it together and it very strong and made out of soild wood. The thing i like most about the crib is the front railing is stationary and does not move. All the parts are metal and can't wait to try it out with our little girl,It was very easy to put together and changing table is attached to the crib but once you use it as a full size bed it a nite stand. I would recommend this product to anyone. It at great crib
I bought this for my soon to be baby boy.... I read all the product reviews and they all seemed pretty good except for assembling the whole thing. I am 18 yrs old and 7 months pregnant and I put this thing together by myself in about 2 and a half hours. The instructions were very clear to me. The only problem I had was telling the parts apart, which wasn't really all that bad. Then when I was putting the hamper together, you do have to drill your own holes. but its not hard to mark where you need to drill them. I thought it was all quite easy. Just a litttle time consuming. But once I got it all put together, Everything was very sturdy and I am very pleased with everything. I would reccomend this product to anyone on a tight budget. Like I said, I am 18 years old.... I am also a single parent. I do not get help from anyone. This product is VERY good. It's safe too. I did lots of reading on different types of cribs before I purchased this one. VERY SAFE AND STURDY. It's nice looking too!!!
I was so afraid I wouldn't be able to assemble the item, I wasn't looking forward to it. However, I am so impressed with the instructions that I'm looking forward to assembling more items! (The instructions are attached to the metal mattress frame which is enclosed in separate wrapping I remember another reviewer couldn't find them and her husband was crafty enough to put the cradle together without instructions. Don't think I could). My 3 year old nephew and I had a ball assembling this crib for his baby sister. My nephew loved using the allen wrench once I placed the screws appropriately. Although all of the tools are supplied, I would suggest using a battery operated screwdriver only because it's faster than manually doing so and also some Krazy glue or wood glue for the handle on the hamper which didn't stay screwed at all. I thought the drawer was attached but it's just a drawer on casters (wheels) which is placed under the bed.
First of all, this is a beautiful, solid piece of furniture that any family would be lucky to own. My daughter will be here in a few weeks and I know she will get a lifetime of use out of it. It was definitely a great price, and the conversion seems fairly seamless. There are also some great hidden shelves to the side of the changer, which delighted me! :) That being said...my poor hubby wrestled with putting this thing together for hours. The directions were unclear at times and sometimes contradictory. The crib itself was easy enough to assemble, as was the structure of the changer, but what isn't advertised as a huge feature (or that I didn't notice) was the wooden hamper component. Apparently, there are pieces to create a hamper that goes in the empty space under the changer and shelving. Ok...a bulky wooden hamper (on wheels, no less, as most baby rooms are carpeted!) is not the best option for a baby. Luckily, it's presence is strictly optional and doesn't affect the overall outcome of the project. Which is good, because the direction showed holes being screwed into holes that did not exist. The notches on the pieces of wood did not match the diagrams. Honestly, though, I like having the space underneath to use at my discretion. There is perfectly adequate room for a diaper genie or diaper disposal unit of a similar size. Or, a cloth or small plastic hamper would fit. My only other gripe is the changer space. It is perfectly adequate space to change a child, and it comes with a vinyl covered pad with straps. Unfortunately, this pad is not quite quality, and I haven't found a changer pad cover that will fit! Most of the ones you find at Babies R Us or wherever are for the contoured pads, and those are way too big for the changer. I will probably have to end up making my own if I can't find a suitable one. But really, it's a great product, if you can get around the assembly. It's up, it's sturdy, and it's beautiful. I cannot wait to see my daughter in it!
This is a beautiful product. Exactly what my husband's grandaughter wanted for her baby. Unfortunately, it arrived damaged, and getting that resolved has not yet happened and the baby is due in less than a month.
Overall, this crib is very helpful and useful. The cedar color is very appealing. My husband put the crib together in 1.5 hours. The only things that I'm not completely crazy about are: (1) the side rail does not drop down, and (2) the hamper does not come with a washable liner. (We solved this problem by purchasing a cotton laundry bag for $4), and (3) the finish chips somewhat easily. (my DH accidentally nicked it with a ladder). The only real trouble my DH had when putting together the crib: the picture drawings didn't line up exactly with the assembly of the hamper. The holes are uniform on the parts, but were shown to be separated on the assembly instructions. This made it difficult to know where exactly to put the parts together. The value received with the changing table, trundle drawer (which is very roomy), hamper and extra storage shelves behind the changing table is well worth the money. The cedar color is warm and inviting.
My husband and I assembled this crib together. I would recommend that at least two people try to attempt this. The directions were very clear and easy to follow. Here's a bit of advice: If you have a power tool, use it to put this crib together.When you have reached the step where you must put the hamper together, pay careful attention that you must use the provided threaded screws...there are no holes drilled....before you actually attempt to screw the the nails in, try to put the hamper together, so you can figure out if you have it put together right (the directions are a little grey about putting the hamper together)...when everything seems kosher, then start to screw the nails in to assemble the hamper. All-in-all, we had a blast putting this crib together! Also, if you want to make it an easier task to put this sucker together, I recommend that you gather all the screws, bolts, and other little pieces (while still inside their individual packages) and label them with a sharpie marker. There are pictures of the hardware..ie screws n such...inside the directions booklet, but this step saved us a lot of digging, time, and energy....Good luck! : )
The crib is relatively large.. the assembly is not hard but nothing is labeled so def. look at the instructions.. the only problem i have with the crib is, it did come with scratches and the wood easily damages so make sure u buy rail protectors.. it comes with a changing pad its not thick at all. i bought a seperate one not knowing it came with one and it didnt fit. im not sure what the measurements are.. the hamper part rolls out like a box on wheels.. honestly i dont see the point of having shelves in the back.. i would rather have the shelves in the front and the hamper on the side.. so if u get this crib make sure u have enough space to get to the back shelves..the adjustable height for the mattress doesnt really go up that high so u still kinda gotta lean over.. overall the crib looks nice set up and its a good buy for the price. im excited to see my chunky sleepin in it..
My husband and myself had looked at a ton of cribs before we decided going with the Delta Dakota. I personally LOVE this crib because its a major space saver with the changing table attached and I love the storage compartments. Once this crib is put together it looks so beautiful & it was surprising that it was easy to put together it only took my husband about 2 1/2 hours to put it together because it didn't come with any of the pieces numbered or labeled.
The only thing is that on this site the measurements for this crib is wrong they have it at 56.0 x 41.0 x 6.0 when the correct measurements are that its only 6 foot in length, 31" wide and the front of the crib stands at 36 1/2" high with the back being 43" those are the correct measurements..
Another thing I love about this crib is that on traditional cribs they all have wood bottoms but on this crib its much, much better because it is better structured with a metal spring bottom which I find to be more safer.
My baby hasn't yet arrived but I can't wait until he finally does so I can put him in this beautiful crib that's decorated in a Winne the Pooh theme.


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Flags of Our Fathers (2006)
A Single Shot Can End The War
Every Soldier Stands Beside A Hero
All it takes to win is the right picture.
The real heroes are the ones left on the island.
They fight for their country but they die for their friends.
Heroes are something we create, something we need.


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Russia Has Enough Vegetables Without EU Imports, Ministry Says
Russia has "enough" vegetables to meet domestic demand without imports from the European Union, Agriculture Minister Yelena Skrynnik said.
The 27-nation union accounted for 11 percent of Russia's tomato imports and 5 percent of its cucumber imports in 2010, she said, according to a statement on the ministry website dated yesterday. More than 70 percent of Russian imports come between January and April, Skrynnik said.
Russia banned imports of fresh vegetables from the EU after an E.coli outbreak in Germany. The EU is seeking an immediate withdrawal of the ban.
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The initial electrical and radiation hardness properties of MOS capacitors with reoxidized nitrided oxides (RNO) structures are systematically investigated by changing the pressure, temperature, and times of nitridation and reoxidation in rapid thermal processes. It was found that the initial flat-band voltage (Vfb) and midgap interface trap density (Ditm) are strongly dependent on the growth conditions and show concave or convex "turnaround" dependency on some process parameters. This may be explained by the hydrogen evaporation and oxygen passivation mechanisms. The radiation induced flat-band voltage shift (ΔVfb) and midgap interface trap density shift (ΔDitm) are also growth-condition dependent and show different "turnaround" dependencies on some process parameters from those observed in initial properties. This may be explained by the variations of the amount of hydrogen-related species such as Si-NH, Si-H, or Si-OH, and nitrogen-related species, such as Si-N, in the oxide bulk and at the Si/SiO2 interface. Finally, the sample with a reoxidation pressure of 250 torr, a reoxidation temperature of 1050°C, and a reoxidation time of 100 s is suggested to be the most radiation-hard together with good initial properties for RNO devices


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Job Overview
The Next Generation of Flight is Underway - and you can be part of it! We need you and your fresh ideas to shape the air transportation system of tomorrow, and the way America flies. Come be a part of the new generation in aviation, an industry that is absolutely critical to this nation's economy and security.
The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) is a fundamental transformation of our nation's airspace system. It uses 21st century technologies to meet future demands, avoid gridlock in the sky and on the runways, further improve safety, and protect the environment. For more information on NextGen, watch this brief introduction : NextGen Introduction
About the FAA Employment Information
Business Component: Flight Standards Division
Additional Salary Information: Salary will be set within the range based on qualifications, experience and equivalent peer salaries in the organization. Locality pay will be added to the base, not to exceed the current statutory pay cap of $179,700.
Permanent Change of Station (PCS) - In accordance with applicable FAA Travel regulations, full relocation benefits will be paid (actual expenses).
The Manager, Flight Standards Division reports directly to the Deputy Director, Flight Standards Field Operations and provides executive leadership and direction for the full range of Flight Standards regional program activities. The Manager is responsible for initiating and implementing required programs, adjust them to meet regional requirements and otherwise speak or act for the agency or the Director and Deputy Directors of Flight Standards on any matter involving the functions assigned to the Flight Standards Division. The Manager provides leadership in the planning, directing and evaluating of region-wide programs to administer and secure compliance with agency regulations, programs, standards, and procedures governing the inspection, certification, and surveillance of general aviation and air carrier operations; certification and maintenance of aircraft; examination, certification, and surveillance of all categories of flight operations and maintenance of airmen and related examiners, and of air agencies; investigation and reporting of aircraft accidents, incidents, service difficulties, and violations; and National programs for which the region serves as a lead region or has designated program responsibility. He/she provides leadership over Flight Standards District Offices within the region and for Aircraft Evaluation Groups, as applicable. The Manager directs through subordinate staff members, the indepth safety performance analysis inspections of air carrier and general aviation operators and air agencies. Administers programs for the determination for new instrument procedures and development of Flight Standards input to annual air navigation and air traffic facilities program and the regional airspace program. The Manager encourages and fosters the safe and orderly development of civil aviation in the region and determines the need for and makes recommendations for new or amended regulations, policies, and procedures and for research and development projects, and the issuance of waivers to the Federal Aviation Regulations.


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Off the Table - Thomas Weikert
ITTF Oct. 13, 2015
Learn everything you need to know about the ITTF President Thomas Weikert by watching his Off the Table interview.
London Legacy, New Infrastructure for Para Table Tennis in Seychelles
Ian Marshall/ITTF Oct. 12, 2015
Located off the south east coast of the African continent, the Seychelles was the recent home for an ITTF/PTT Level One Coaches Course and Training Camp; proceedings commenced on Tuesday 15th September and concluded on Tuesday 22nd September.
Butterfly's Off-The-Wall Partnership With Inclusion Table Tennis
Marco Santini Oct. 12, 2015
Butterfly, the leading global provider of Table Tennis equipment and INCLUSION, the innovators behind an off-the-wall Table Tennis concept, today announced a creative partnership that will add an exciting, new spin to a sport that has remained relatively unchanged since its inception in the 1880's.
In the Zone - Part 6
Stephen Freedman with Clyde Young/The PATT Institute Oct. 12, 2015
Training Emotional Skill in Table Tennis by Stephen Freedman with Clyde Young of The PATT Institute.
Larry Hodges: Table Tennis Tactics for Thinkers
Ben Larcombe/Expert Table Tennis Oct. 12, 2015
How to introduce Larry Hodges? It's a tough one. He's probably the busiest man in table tennis! Larry is a full-time table tennis coach at Maryland Table Tennis Center in the US.
Tactical Drills
Samson Dubina Oct. 12, 2015
How many drills are commonly used by professional players around the world? I currently have a compilation of over 400 drills that are commonly used on a daily basis by the pros.
USATT and NCTTA Partner to Host Team Challenge at 2015 Nationals
USATT Oct. 12, 2015
First NCTTA Team Challenge To Take Place On Saturday, December 19th
Jack Wang Interview
Rahul Acharya Oct. 12, 2015
Rahul Acharya interviewed Jack Wang at Westchester TTC
Effective Use of Timeouts
Han Xiao Oct. 12, 2015
Today, we'll go over some tips for using timeouts as well as some examples of times when time outs can change the match.
History of USATT - Volume XVI - Chapter 12
Tim Boggan Oct. 12, 2015
1988: U.S. Open.


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In my application I am having 5 checkboxes for displaying different task on another activity in this user have to select 1, 2 or 3 checkbox which he/she want to see on next screen. In first screen i am having Save button. after checking checkboxes user have to click on save button. My question is I want to show only those Expandable list on second activity which is selected by user on check box when user click on save button please tell me how to do this? Thank you very much.
Announcing Stack Overflow Documentation
We started with Q&A. Technical documentation is next, and we need your help.
Whether you're a beginner or an experienced developer, you can contribute.
save the selected check-boxs and then when you inflate the expandable listview adapter return views only for the selected ones
create dynamic array of selected Item, and assign this array to the group array


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- I'm done, close this
Enter Our Ultimate Summer Tech Giveaway!
That's right - we are giving away a Summer Tech Package that includes a high-tech Fuego Element grill, Monster Superstar Backfloat waterproof speaker, and a mobile charging bank from iFrogz! Head on over to our giveaway page in order to enter. Good luck!
Wednesday January 19, 2011 8:28 pm
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C.C.L. and M.A. contributed equally to this paper.
Research Report
Oral administration of the flavanol (−)-epicatechin bolsters endogenous protection against focal ischemia through the Nrf2 cytoprotective pathway
Version of Record online: 23 SEP 2013
DOI: 10.1111/ejn.12362
© 2013 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd
European Journal of Neuroscience
Volume 38, Issue 11, pages 3659–3668, December 2013
Additional Information
How to Cite
Leonardo, C. C., Agrawal, M., Singh, N., Moore, J. R., Biswal, S. and Doré, S. (2013), Oral administration of the flavanol (−)-epicatechin bolsters endogenous protection against focal ischemia through the Nrf2 cytoprotective pathway. European Journal of Neuroscience, 38: 3659–3668. doi: 10.1111/ejn.12362
Publication History
- Issue online: 1 DEC 2013
- Version of Record online: 23 SEP 2013
- Manuscript Accepted: 25 AUG 2013
- Manuscript Received: 4 JUN 2013
Funded by
- . Grant Numbers: R21AT005085, R21AT005246
- Abstract
- Article
- References
- Cited By
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Whether you are a complete beginner, have tried diving on holiday, or even if you have already qualified with another diving organisation, with over 50 years of scuba diving experience Lincoln & District BSAC 109 has the solution for you.
We are a non profit making Scuba Diving and Snorkelling Club based in Lincoln with members from all over Lincolnshire and further afield. We are an active Diving Club with like minded people diving together in the UK and all over the world.
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To The Editor:
After alienating blacks, Hispanics, women and whites who were disgusted by voter suppression this past election cycle, maybe a way for the Republican Party to start to make amends would be for them to work with Democrats on immigration reform and also to support statehood for Puerto Rico.
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Election Officials Struggle with New Systems
California candidates continue to campaign for the governorship despite a possible court-ordered delay in the scheduled Oct. 7 recall vote. As that state's election systems come under scrutiny, officials across the country are struggling to install new voting systems and train poll workers. Hear NPR's Pam Fessler and NPR's Mandalit del Barco.
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Simulation of polymer flow using smoothed particle hydrodynamics method
Version of Record online: 7 FEB 2013
DOI: 10.1002/pen.23512
Copyright © 2013 Society of Plastics Engineers
Polymer Engineering & Science
Volume 53, Issue 12, pages 2509–2518, December 2013
Additional Information
How to Cite
Riviere, S., Khelladi, S., Farzaneh, S., Bakir, F. and Tcharkhtchi, A. (2013), Simulation of polymer flow using smoothed particle hydrodynamics method. Polym Eng Sci, 53: 2509–2518. doi: 10.1002/pen.23512
Publication History
- Issue online: 12 NOV 2013
- Version of Record online: 7 FEB 2013
- Manuscript Accepted: 28 DEC 2012
- Manuscript Received: 17 MAY 2012
Funded by
- RAIGI society for providing us the reactive materials and the Single Interministerial Fund (FUI)-SAGANE
- Abstract
- Article
- References
- Cited By
Reactive rotational molding (RRM) is a process to manufacture hollow plastic articles. Comparing to rotational molding of thermoplastics, it decreases the process cycle time due to the reactivity of the system. However, the number of influent parameters is relatively high and optimization of the process is complex. During RRM, the viscosity is one of the key parameters and varies according to the polymer molecular weight due to chemical reactions. Simulation is a way to optimize this process. Prediction of the reactive flow is of great interest to optimize process conditions and wall thickness distribution of the molded part. We developed a solver based on smoothed particle hydrodynamics method. This Lagrangian meshfree method is well adapted to simulate free surface flows like those occurring in RRM. First, we validated the code comparing the simulation results to analytical Couette flow solution and experimental measurements of dam break problem. Then, we performed two-dimensional (2D) and 3D simulations to observe the influence of the change of viscosity on the flow, due to the chemical reactions. Adhesion of the polymer on the mold surface is modeled by new boundary conditions. POLYM. ENG. SCI., 53:2509–2518, 2013. © 2013 Society of Plastics Engineers


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In KrishG's previous post, he talked about the various ways, in BizTalk RFID 2009, you can create EPCIS data and then send it to a EPCIS Capture service using the EPCIS Capture Client. But, once you have implemented your application, how do you test it?
Well, here I will try to walk through the process of creating a EPCIS Capture Service in .NET to test your applications.
As the first step, from the XSD files provided by EPCGlobal, lets generate C# classes to work with in code. To do this, we will use the .NET framework tool xsd.exe.
Unzip the EPCIS XSDs into a folder and on the Visual Studio Command Prompt type the following command:
xsd.exe EPCglobal-epcis-1_0.xsd EPCglobal.xsd StandardBusinessDocumentHeader.xsd /c /f /order /n:SampleCaptureService.EpcisTypes
This will create a CS file(for me it was named epcglobal-epcis-1_0_epcglobal_standardbusinessdocumentheader.cs). Lets rename this file to a more friendly name, like EpcisTypes.cs.
Open Visual Studio and create a new WCF Service Library Project. Add the EpcisTypes.cs file we created above, into the project. Delete the sample Service that comes from the WCF Service Library Template. (Named IService1.cs and Service1.cs).
EPCIS Capture Service is a XML over HTTP service (REST). WCF supports defining 'RESTful' service in .NET Framework 3.5 with System.ServiceModel.Web.dll assembly. Thus, we will add a reference to this assembly to our project.
Now lets define the Capture service interface that the Capture Service will implement.
[ServiceContract, XmlSerializerFormat]
public interface IEpcisCaptureService
[WebInvoke(Method = "POST", UriTemplate = "Capture", RequestFormat = WebMessageFormat.Xml)]
void Capture(EPCISDocumentType document);
By applying the ServiceContract and XmlSerializerFormat attribute to our interface, we are simply telling WCF that this interface defines a service and it should use XML Serializer to serialize/deserialize messages for this service respectively.
The WebInvoke attribute on the Capture method, is to specify to WCF that this method will be invoked by the Web programming model (REST) and Capture is the method to be used to respond to HTTP POST requests. This is as per the the definition of the Capture operation by EPCIS standard.
Now lets implement this WCF Service Interface.
public class EpcisCaptureService : IEpcisCaptureService
#region IEpcisCaptureService Members
public void Capture(EPCISDocumentType document)
// Your Capture Code Here
The last thing we have to do is write the App.Config
Open the App.config and write the following configuration.
<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8" ?>
<service name="SampleEpcisCaptureService.EpcisCaptureService">
<add baseAddress = "http://localhost:8731/SampleEpcisCaptureService/" />
<!-- Service Endpoints -->
<!-- Unless fully qualified, address is relative to base address supplied above -->
<endpoint address ="soap" binding="wsHttpBinding" contract="SampleEpcisCaptureService.IEpcisCaptureService"/>
<endpoint address ="rest" binding="webHttpBinding" contract="SampleEpcisCaptureService.IEpcisCaptureService" behaviorConfiguration="webhttpbehaviour"/>
<behavior name="webhttpbehaviour">
Now here we have defined two endpoints for our service. One is the standard WCF's WsHttpBinding based endpoint. While the other is a WebHttpBinding binding at http://localhost:8731/SampleEpcisCaptureService/rest with a additional WebHttpBehavior added to enpointBehaviors. WebHttpBinding is a new binding introduced in .NET 3.5 to support REST services. Please note that for the WebHttpBinding to work, specifying the WebHttp behavior is necessary.
To run this service, create a Console Application project that refers to your WCF Service Library you just created above. In this console application, create a ServiceHost for our service, copy the configuration into the app's App.Config and then build and run the project
For testing our service, we will use BizTalk RFID EPCIS Capture Client. For this, create a Test Application project, add a reference to Microsoft.Rfid.Epcis.dll and copy the following code into Main() and run the app.
// Creating a dummy ObjectEvent
ObjectEvent oe = new ObjectEvent(DateTime.Now, new [] { new Uri("http://abc")}, EpcisAction.Observe);
// Creating a REST client to http://localhost:8731/SampleEpcisCaptureService/rest
CaptureClient client = CaptureClient.GetRestClient("http://localhost:8731/SampleEpcisCaptureService/rest");
// Executing the Capture method with the dummy ObjectEvent
client.Capture(new [] {oe});
Alternatively, You can also use the Sample that KrishG wrote to test your service.
In my next post, we will take a closer look at the EPCIS Object Model as defined by Microsoft BizTalk RFID 2009.
You can download a complete working sample below. The attached sample capture service writes the EPCIS events received by it to a SQL database in XML format.