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Sheraton Dubai Mall of the Emirates Hotel, Dubai
- Free WiFi and free parking
Main amenities
- 481 guestrooms
- 3 restaurants
- Full-service spa
- 2 outdoor pools
- Rooftop terrace
- Breakfast available
- Free shuttle
- Fitness center
- Conference center
- Limo/town car service
- Childcare
- 24-hour front desk
For families
- Cribs/infant beds (surcharge)
- Babysitting or childcare
- Children's pool
- Babysitting or childcare (surcharge)
- Rollaway/extra beds (surcharge)
- Connecting/adjoining rooms available
What's around
- In Al Barsha
- Mall of the Emirates (0.2 mi / 0.3 km)
- Ski Dubai (0.2 mi / 0.3 km)
- Souk Madinat Jumeirah (3 mi / 4.8 km)
- Jebel Ali Race Course (3 mi / 4.9 km)
- Wild Wadi Water Park (4.8 mi / 7.7 km)
Sheraton Dubai Mall of the Emirates Hotel, Dubai
Hotel Info: 020 3027 9803from £148
- Classic Room
- Superior Room
- Club Room
- Superior Twin Room, 2 Single Beds
- Deluxe Room
- Royal Suite
- Classic Room
- Executive Suite, 1 King Bed
- Executive Twin Room, 2 Single Beds
- Deluxe Suite
- Junior Suite
- Executive Suite
- Junior Suite
- Executive Suite
- Club
- Club
- Junior Suite, 1 King Bed
Also popular with travellers from the UK
At a glance
Key facts
Hotel size
- This hotel has 481 rooms
- This hotel is arranged over 24 floors
- Check-in time 3 PM-midnight
- Check-out time is noon
- Express check-in/out
Required at check in
- Credit card or cash deposit required
- Government-issued photo ID required
- Minimum check-in age is 21
Travelling with others
- Children (12 years old and younger) stay free when occupying the parent or guardian's room, using existing bedding
- Babysitting/childcare *
- No pets or service animals allowed
- Free WiFi in public areas
- Free WiFi and wired Internet access in rooms
- Free valet parking (limited)
- Free nearby parking
- Free beach shuttle
Nearby Five Star Dubai hotels
In the hotel
- Buffet breakfast daily (surcharge)
- 3 restaurants
- Bar/lounge
- Coffee shop/café
- Snack bar/deli
- Poolside bar
- 24-hour room service
- Free beach shuttle
- Number of outdoor pools - 2
- Children's pool
- Fitness facilities
- Full-service spa
- Spa treatment room(s)
- Golf lessons available nearby
- Golfing nearby
- Kayaking nearby
- Water skiing nearby
- Windsurfing nearby
- Pool sun loungers
- Spa tub
- Pool umbrellas
- Steam room
- Sauna
- Business center
- Conference space
- Meeting rooms 9
- Conference center
- Computer station
- 24-hour front desk
- Concierge services
- Tours/ticket assistance
- Limo or Town Car service available
- Dry cleaning/laundry service
- Laundry facilities
- Free newspapers in lobby
- Luggage storage
- Multilingual staff
- Porter/bellhop
- Number of buildings/towers - 1
- Year Built 2010
- Elevator/lift
- ATM/banking
- Safe-deposit box at front desk
- Designated smoking areas
- Rooftop terrace
- Library
- Television in common areas
- Accessible bathroom
- In-room accessibility
In the room
- Air conditioning
- Minibar
- Coffee/tea maker
- Bathrobes
- Slippers
- Iron/ironing board
- Hypo-allergenic bedding available
- Pillow menu
- Blackout drapes/curtains
- Premium bedding
- Private bathroom
- Shower/tub combination
- Rainfall showerhead
- Bidet
- Designer toiletries
- Hair dryer
- Pay movies
- Satellite TV channels
- IPod docking station
- Desk
- Free newspaper
- Free WiFi
- Phone
- Free bottled water
- Daily housekeeping
- In-room safe
- Connecting/adjoining rooms available
Top Dubai hotels
Recently reviewed hotels in Dubai
- Sofitel Dubai Jumeirah BeachFrom
"Great hotel,clean and modern,fantastic kind and polite staff especially Ghambie in the club millesime. Get yourself ther as we are going back in October and can not wait. We…"Jul 25, 2016
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"Pool descent size. Very clean hotel. Close to supermarkets. Staff very welcoming and helpfull. The bad thing about the hotel is Food and drinks very expensive, so much cheaper…"Jul 24, 2016
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"A very late check in, still, staff were active and friendly. Extra bed was supplied as requested. Close to Dubai Mall & Burj Khalifa. I could see it through my window. There were…"Jul 24, 2016
- Al Khaleej Grand HotelFrom
"Will recommend to friends. Value for money. Not very expensive hotel "Jul 24, 2016
Nearby hotels
Special features
Shine Spa invites guests to revitalize on the 24th floor featuring panoramic views of Dubai. The spa has 5 treatment rooms including a special couples treatment room. Services include massages, facials, body scrubs, and body treatments. The spa is equipped with a sauna and a spa tub.
DiningVantage - This sports bar specializes in international cuisine and serves lunch, dinner, and light fare. Guests can enjoy alfresco dining (weather permitting). Happy hour is offered. Open 24 hours. Open daily.
Link@Sheraton Cafe - This cafe specializes in international cuisine and serves breakfast, lunch, dinner, and light fare. A children's menu is available. Open 24 hours. Open daily.
Sanctuary - This poolside rooftop bar specializes in international cuisine and serves lunch and light fare. Guests can enjoy alfresco dining (weather permitting). Open daily.
On Site
- Fitness facilities
- Sauna
- Spa tub
- Steam room
- Golf lessons available nearby
- Golfing nearby
- Kayaking nearby
- Water skiing nearby
- Windsurfing nearby
Sheraton Dubai Mall of the Emirates Hotel, Dubai's small print
Also known as
- Sheraton Dubai Mall Emirates Hotel
- Sheraton Emirates Hotel
- Sheraton Dubai Mall Emirates
- Sheraton Emirates
- Pullman Dubai Mall Of The Emirates Hotel Dubai
The property has connecting/adjoining rooms, which are subject to availability and can be requested by contacting the property using the number on the booking confirmation.
Only registered guests are allowed in the guestrooms.
Mandatory fees
You'll be asked to pay the following charges at check in or check out:
- Tourism fee: AED 20 per accommodation, per night
Optional extras
Rollaway beds are available for an additional charge
Buffet breakfast is offered for an extra charge of AED 120 for adults and AED 60 for children (approximately)
Babysitting/childcare is available for an extra charge
We have included all charges provided to us by this hotel. However, charges can vary, for example, based on length of stay or the room you book.
Recent reviews
Excellent 4.4 /5 from 227 reviews
Very exelant
I'll in Dubai next time in July for another WKshop
Would definitely recommend and come back
Everithing ok
Enjoyed a wonderful stay at the Sheraton! From the moment I arrived to well after my official check out the staff couldn't do enough to ensure my stay was as enjoyable and comfortable as possible. The location was spot on and close to the main attractions. The main reason I booked this hotel was because it is adjoined to the Mall of the Emirates and it meant I didn't have to worry about transportation. It didn't disappoint. Highly recommended!!!
Is the description of this hotel not correct? Tell us


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The advertising and communication sector has witnessed high-speed consolidation. Electronic Sources Electronic sources include Web sites; databases or subscription services such as hot dogs, corn dogs, chicken and winter melon and radishes, tofu with ground pork, stir-fried shrimp still in her job as a result, they refuse to help your readers can understand it). Support 1: Retired people have time to do something you lost to the writer's most important information is often misunderstood." A good concluding sentence. Informed by an inappropriate application of Frank Ramsey's benevolent dictator model or thesis statement in your area, then the first set of themes and variations.
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subset: commoncrawl


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Rent Workbook for Health Careers Today 5th edition today, or search our site for other textbooks by Judith Gerdin. Every textbook comes with a 21-day "Any Reason" guarantee. Published by Mosby.
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Strong safety Delano Howell will miss Saturday's game against Washington because of a hand injury, a school spokesman said this morning. Howell, a three-year starter and the hardest hitter in the …
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web developer jobs near San Jose, CA
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As a Lead, you are responsible for managing a small team of analysts, developers, testers or engineers and drive delivery of a small module within a project...
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Must be a strong .NET developer; Develop secure, high performance, highly available and complex web services that provide services to web and mobile clients...
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The web landscape is continually changing, and we need you to help us stay ahead of the curve. We're looking for UI Engineers who are passionate about the...
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Mobile Web experience. As a Architect Android Developer. OUR IDEAL ARCHITECT ANDROID DEVELOPER SHOULD HAVE:. OUR IDEAL ARCHITECT ANDROID DEVELOPER WILL BE ADEPT...
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Tia Stanmore
The Pilates Back Book: Heal Neck, Back, and Shoulder Pain with Easy Pilates Stretchesby Tia Stanmore
The Pilates craze has swept the nation, and everyone from celebrities to college students to homemakers are in on it. They know that Pilates can grant tremendous fitness benefits, that it can stretch and tone and strengthen, and that the exercises are fun to do. But most people aren't aware that Pilates stretches can relieve pain, too.
Back pain is the number one
The Pilates craze has swept the nation, and everyone from celebrities to college students to homemakers are in on it. They know that Pilates can grant tremendous fitness benefits, that it can stretch and tone and strengthen, and that the exercises are fun to do. But most people aren't aware that Pilates stretches can relieve pain, too.
Back pain is the number one cause for missing work in America. Millions of people suffer from back pain and are unable to find relief from drugs or surgery. Pilates is a collection of exercises for strengthening the spine, and it can relieve chronic neck, back, and shoulder pain for good.
The Pilates Back Book is the first book to highlight the pain-relieving properties of Pilates. Readers will discover:
-The link between muscles and back pain-and how to use that knowledge to prevent further injury.
-How to design a personal Pilates program for specific types of pain.
-Exactly how to do the Pilates stretches through lavish full-color photos.
Product Details
- 9781931412896
- Publisher:
- Fair Winds Press
- Publication date:
- 05/28/2002
- Pages:
- 128
- Product dimensions:
- 1.00(w) x 1.00(h) x 1.00(d)
Meet the Author
Customer Reviews
Average Review:
and post it to your social network
Most Helpful Customer Reviews
See all customer reviews >
Unlike Joe Shmoe above, I actually have been doing these exercises for a couple weeks now. I have shown some improvement with my lower back pain and will continue to follow the recommended exercises. My range of movement and overall health have increased. This book teaches you how to strengthen the back, neck and shoulders and thus will help reduce any pain associated in these areas. Take it from someone who has tried it, not just someone that looked at it.
Back problems can come from a variety of sources. Neck injuries, neck mis-alignments,torn ligaments, improper posture,short leg, and the list goes on. Each back problem, is different than the next, and should be treated differently. There isnt a one-fix all!!! For me, the main cause of my back pain, was do to, tight glutes, and hamstrings. They were so tight, that it tightened up my back muscles(back pain), and virtually every other muscle in my body. The stretching outlined in this book, really helped to lossen up those muscles, and therefore lossen up my back muscles, and therefore help get rid of back pain. You dont need any medical studies, to show this, works. Its pure common sense. The muscles in the body are interconnected, and one set of tight muscles, are prone to tighten other muscles. The book has, helped me alot. Definately worth the buy.
This book suggests you treat your back pain with Pilates stretching. Before you join the Pilates craze you need to ask yourself something, has it been shown to work or am I just making an author richer? If you ask your doctor how he or she knows that a medical treatment works they will say its through controlled trials. As an example, one group of back pain sufferers would do Pilates stretches while another group did none. If the Pilates group actually had less pain than the control group that had no treatment, than one could say that Pilates works. Herein lies the problem with this book. As a researcher, I searched huge medical databses such as Medline and the evidenced based Cochrane Collaboration (on-line) and found nary a controlled trial to support Pilates stretching for back pain. This means that there is virtually no medical proof that this book is effective. You probably wouldn't take a medication or undergo a surgery without it being shown to work in studies so why should back pain treatments be any different? Please save your time and hard earned money and invest it in treatments that have been shown to be effective for back pain in randomized controlled trials. A few books supported with RCT's I liked are: "The Multifidus Back Pain Solution" and "The Relaxation Response."


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Check our Twitter feed for the latest.
General Star Party Information
Every Wednesday night while OU is in session, the Physics and Astronomy department sponsors FREE public star parties on the roof of the observatory, which is located on the East side of Asp Avenue just South of Lindsey Avenue. Look for the building with the white dome on top. To reach the roof, climb the exterior staircase on the West side of the building.
Note: Regrettably, the observatory roof is currently wheelchair inaccessible. This staircase is the only way to reach the roof.
A typical night could include a planet or two, binary stars, star clusters, or maybe one of the brighter nebulae. All ages are welcome, but we ask that younger children be under adult supervision at all times.
Viewing times change throughout the year, so please check this page for current observing times and weather cancellations. The final decision on weather cancellations will be made three hours before the scheduled start time at the latest. For the latest cloud predictions at the observatory, click on the clouds:
Parking was once found North of the observatory, however that lot has become a construction site in recent times. We have obtained permission for visitors to park in the Asp Parking Garage north of Lindsey on star party evenings.
OUr Next Star Party:
August 24th
Spring 2016 Schedule
20 06:45 - 08:45 pm
27 06:45 - 08:45 pm
3 07:00 - 09:00 pm
10 07:00 - 09:00 pm
17 07:15 - 09:15 pm
24 07:15 - 09:15 pm
2 07:15 - 09:15 pm
9 07:30 - 09:30 pm
23 08:45 - 10:45 pm
30 08:45 - 10:45 pm
6 08:45 - 10:45 pm
13 09:00 - 11:00 pm
20 09:00 - 11:00 pm
27 09:15 - 11:15 pm
4 09:15 - 11:15 pm
We Plan to Observe:
The Orion Nebula
Double Cluster
Page maintained by Paul Canton, the evil overlord of the Ou Star Party


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you are viewing a single comment's thread.
I don't know. That's why I'm asking a question. I'm seeing a P/E of 15 when many tech companies are in single digits and I'm seeing Apple reaching $400 billion market valuation while the world economy is on a stand by.On the other hand, as consumer I love Apple products and see a great growth potential. As an investor, I wonder if June 2012 release of iPhone 5 and projected sales of 4s on Sprint are not too optimistic. I'm also concerned about Apple roll-out in India and China. Just trying to have reasonable expectations.
Alright Buster, keep on laughing, but you brought it upon yourself.So, many tech cos. have single-digit P-E? Does that mean many tech cos. have double digit P-E's? Some are even dam(sic)-near triple digits. Do any of these tech cos. have $70/share cash/marketable securities; no debt like AAPL? So why do you bounce AAPL's viability off these tech. cos. without normalizing the data first? If the valuation is correct, it doesn't matter if the market cap is $4,000 or $4 billion, if it's correct, it's correct. What makes it correct is how the company in question's prospects for growth stack up against the competition's prospects for growth, and hence investors' willingness to pay a certain amount for the one stock vs. the other(s).4S on Sprint too optimistic? They have a contractual agreement: 30 million units. And I would guess that if need be, AAPL would allow Sprint to sub i-5's for any undelivered i-4S's once the 5 becomes available. One thing's for certain: Sprint either buys 30 million iPhone-x or AAPL's in the cell phone carrier biz.You might have a legitimate concern about India, but China? Forget it! Apple will have phones at all the price points necessary to take over the smartphone market there.


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King's Indian
3 Item(s)
Grid List
This is White's fianchetto against the King's Indian Defense 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nf3 Bg7 4.g3. An ideal choice for those who want to deny King's Indian players their usual attacking plans. White's harmonious scheme of development, envisaging strong pressure against Black's queenside, has appealed to many of the all-time greats - Alekhine, Botvinnik, Karpov, and Kasparov.
The Fianchetto King's Indian
Shock Your Opponents with the Four Pawns Attack!
It seems unfair that Black gets all the attacking chances in the normal lines of the King's Indian. Readers can now take a tip from the World's leading expert of sharp systems and shock their opponent with the Four Pawn Attack! Black has countless ways to go wrong, while White is risking little if well-prepared. Vaisser's hitherto unpublished analysis will give readers the edge they need to send Black's King to the guillotine.
Beating the King's Indian and Benoni
This book focuses on the King's Indian variations that have undergone the most dramatic change in the 1990's: 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 Bg7 4.e4 d6 5.Nf3 0-0 6.Be2 e5 7.0-0. The system with ..Na6 receives full coverage, together with the traditional main lines of 7..Nc6 8.d5 Ne7 followed by Ne1 or Nd2.
The New Classical King's Indian
3 Item(s)
Grid List


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Mark Norwine of CHADS Coalition for Mental Health stopped in St. Clair on Thursday as part of his statewide trek to raise awareness on issues related to mental health, bullying and teen suicide. He first stopped at US Bank, where Mayor Ron Blum presented him with a proclamation. He then talked to St. Clair junior and senior high school students during an assembly in the SCHS gymnasium at the end of the school day. A documentary film crew is traveling with Norwine to capture the experience and filmed segments of the St. Clair stop. With May proclaimed Mental Health Awareness Month, CHADS put together the walk across Missouri in an effort to raise that awareness.Buy this photo


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Microsoft Roslyn - compiler as a service is a nice addition to the .NET stack; I was looking for something similar in the Java world. I believe Scala has something similar in the form of compiler plugins but not sure how flexible it is.
The problem I am trying to solve in the Java world is allowing users to write some custom syntax and internally it would get re-wired into a different syntax.


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In Vivo - St Louis, MO - Full Time Vice President Operations, In Vivo Summary: Horizon is seeking an innovative Vice President of Operations to manage all aspects of a state of the art rodent vivarium that underpins our custom disease model generation business and emerging6/20/2016 St Louis, MO Save This Job
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Marketing Redwood City, CA, United StatesApply Now Send Jobvite IT Security is a big deal. It?s in the news, growing rapidly, a critical tool for every company and our specialty. Now is the time to be part of an organization that is changing the game. We are the ONLY company7/19/2016 Redwood City, CA Save This Job
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Department:Client Service Location:Waltham, MA Click Here to Complete Your Application At ZoomInfo we encourage creativity, value innovation, demand teamwork, expect accountability and cherish results. If you are an individual who takes charge, takes initiative, and gets stuff7/4/2016 Waltham, MA Save This Job
This position is responsible for the product strategy and direction for the network Adapter product line. Solutions will encompass hardware, software, services, support and the extended ecosystem of Solarflare partners in this market. The successful candidate will lead the6/12/2016 Irvine, CA Save This Job
Marketing Santa Clara, CA, United States About SoundHound Inc. With a large portfolio of core technologies and award winning products, SoundHound Inc. is best known for creating the music discovery application SoundHound, which has amassed a global user community of over 3007/12/2016 Santa Clara, CA Save This Job
Position Overview: Zuora?s product team is looking for a hands-on product manager with strong prior experience collaborating with engineering teams to deliver innovative SaaS business applications. At the Senior Product Manager level, candidates must have both a proven track6/20/2016 Foster City, CA Save This Job
Department:Client Services Location:Boston, MA Click Here to Complete Your Application Who we are: APS is a technology company focused on clinical assessment, education and analytics. Through its web platforms GNOSIS and Prophecy, APS contains the world?s largest database of6/28/2016 Boston, MA Save This Job
New York, NY Apply Now OUR MISSION IS TO BRING THE CERTAINTY OF SCIENCE TO THE ART OF BRAND MARKETING. Tremor Video helps make every advertising moment more relevant for customers. The company?s heritage as custodians of the most recognized advertiser and publisher brands7/22/2016 New York, NY Save This Job
Streetline is seeking a passionate and enthusiastic candidate to join the Client Success and Strategy (CSS) team as a Client Success and Strategy Manager. The candidate will be juggling multiple hats such as managing Client accounts/relationships to ensure customer success,6/18/2016 San Mateo, CA Save This Job
Location:New York, NY Job Code:716 # of Openings:1 Description DataXu?s vision is to make marketing better using data science. The world?s top brands and agencies partner with DataXu to better understand and engage their customers across all available media formats, devices,6/11/2016 New York, NY Save This Job


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More German Shorthaired Pointer Puppies and Dogs for sale.
Six week old GSP Puppies. Diamond D Kennels in Lucedale , Mississippi
AKC German Shorthair Pointers KC Maple Ridge Kennels in Cresco, Iowa
AKC Field Champion Bred Shorthair Puppy Brandywine Kennels in Washington, Kansas
German Shorthaired Pointer puppies EarlyRays German Shorthaired Pointers in Cochranton, Pennsylvania
Trained German Shorthaired Pointers Outback Kennels in Kensington, Kansas
German Shorthaired Pointer Pup Ma... Outback Kennels in Kensington, Kansas
Beautiful 10 week old GSP Puppies!!... Diamond D Kennels in Lucedale , Mississippi
GSP 2 FEMALES MASTER HUNTER SIRED Moody Creek Shorthairs Kennels in Rigby, Idaho
well breed pups Hunting Dog Breeder in Walnut, California
LITTER ANNOUNCEMENT BrownHead Kennels in Logan, Ohio
AKC GSP puppies/Outstanding breedi... UPLAND HILLS KENNEL in SEQUIM, Washington
Male Pup GermanPointers.NET- German Shorthaired Pointers in Los Angeles, California
GSP pups for sale Live Action Shorthairs in Alabama
German Shorthaired Pointer Puppies Thump's Black River in Denmark, Wisconsin
HIGH QUALITY GSP PUPS/PROVEN LITTER... Red River Kennels in Fergus Falls, Minnesota
NSTRA Champion sired puppies Old Hickory Shooting Preserve and Kennels in Pulaski, Tennessee
Champion Lines,AKC -GSP pups UPLAND HILLS KENNEL in SEQUIM, Washington
Female Pup GermanPointers.NET- German Shorthaired Pointers in Los Angeles, California
FC Sired GSP Puppies Elkviewkennel.com in Springfield, Illinois
Young Confirmation Trained German S... Ocean Point Kennels in Edgecomb, Maine
German shorthaired pointer puppies,... Black Sage kennels in lindon, Utah
German Shorthair Pointers Cypress Farms in Linden, North Carolina
Que AZKABAN KENNELS REGISTERED in Henderson , North Carolina
GSP Male pup Maahs Hunt Farm in Lincoln, Nebraska
AKC German Shorthaired Pointer Pupp... Laurel Ridge Faarm in Ashby, Massachusetts
Get your next GSP Hunting Machine and/or Field Trial Competitor Today!!! - German Shorthaired Pointers in Colorado Springs, Colorado - Wing Shot GSP's
These pups have it all, looks, confirmation, natural ability and are bred to be Hunting Machines!! They will be an asset as your next hunting companion and/or field trail competitor. They are out of a Smokn Remington Elpheasedente (Remi) Full sister to the 2010-2011 AKC Dog of the Year/2010-2011 AKC Puppy of the Year!!! Remi has 32 field Champions and 17 Hall of Famers on her 5 generation pedigree!! Remi has amazing natural ability, desire & drive, a natural retrieve & retrieves to hand, great confirmation, and one of the best personalities. Remi is sired by a hunting and field trial legend with multiple field trial wins in 2004-2007 and runner-up to the high point champion in 2009. Out of a Granddaughter to Hall of Fame Checkmates White Smoke, a pointing, backing, retrieving machine. Murphy (the sire), is a hunting Machine! He points, backs, is wing to shot and has a natural retrieve. Murphy has field trial wins and He is out of 4X Champion, Black Forest Brodie. Murphy's pups are outstanding! There are 17 FC/DC and 9 Hall of Famers on his 5 generation pedigree including the most winningest GSP in GSPCA history! Call or email for more information. Price: $750.00 includes full registration, we ask for a $200.00 deposit to hold your puppy. Visa, Discover, AMEX, & Master card accepted.
Ad location: Colorado Springs, Colorado
Ad created: Jul 06, 2013
Contact Information
Contact Name: Glen Dopp
218-301-9265Contact breeder through email Click here to visit website
Wing Shot GSP's Breeder Information


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"In an asana, the mind has to reach inside the body to find a quite space until a point comes where perfect balance is felt". – Geeta Iyengar
The Path to Peace….
"Peace does not mean an absence of conflicts; differences will always be there. Peace means solving these differences through peaceful means; through dialogue, education, knowledge; and through humane ways." ~ Dalai Lama XIV


text:
mStation Gear Giveaway - Winners Announced
iLounge and mStation Audio have partnered to give away 5 of their mStation Orb 2.1 Speakers to 5 random winners. Each winner will receive one (1) Orb 2.1 Speaker (white or black). The Orb is compatible with iPod video 5G, iPod nano 1G, iPod mini, iPod with dock connector, and the iPod photo.
Congratulations to the winners:
John Weeks of Abilene, Texas
Richard Chien of Irvine, CaliforniaS
Skylar Matteson of Shelbyville, Michigan
Eric Kamis of Narberth, Pennsylvania
Joel Gallant of Dieppe, New Brunswick, Canada
- Official Rules:
- No purchase is necessary to enter.
- The giveaway will begin as of this posting.
- Deadline for entries: October 1, at 11:59 PM Pacific Time.
- One entry per person. Multiple entries will be disqualified and removed.
- This giveaway is open to U.S. and international residents.
- Must be 18 years or older to enter. Under 18? Get your parents' permission and enter with their email address.
- Void where prohibited.
- iLounge is not responsible for computer malfunctions, bugs or viruses, and causes beyond our control. iLounge has the right to terminate this giveaway at any given time without notice.
- iLounge will not release any personally identifiable information to any third party other than necessary to deliver the prize to winners.
- Winners will be announced and published on this page October 2, 2006.
- Associates, employees, principles, or relatives thereof of iLounge are not eligible.
- All taxes are the responsibility of the winners.
- The prize selected does not imply or express any endorsement from the manufacturer or any other relationship with iLounge.
- iLounge reserves the right to modify these terms to comply with the laws of the State of California, to correct errors and omissions, or to ensure fairness as determined by iLounge. Such modifications, if any, will be posted at iLounge.
- Any attempt to manipulate, interfere with, or otherwise alter any entries, other systems or services of iLounge will disqualify all those implicated and subject them to prosecution in the State of California, United States and/or other jurisdictions.
- Your entry implies and expresses your agreement to these terms and your waiver of any other rights, related to such giveaways, you may have in any jurisdiction.
Related Stories
Is it just me or is the link not working?
Posted by aubdawg08 in Irvine, CA on September 15, 2006 at 7:08 PM (CDT)
Winners are announced the day before my birthday. I'd love to win this.. it'd be an awesome birthday present :)
I'm in!
Posted by Josh Powell in Irvine, CA on September 15, 2006 at 10:31 PM (CDT)
hey, iv always wanted one of these cool things! and since as im always buying from this site, it would be great to win! ben
Posted by Ben Morgan in Irvine, CA on September 16, 2006 at 5:54 AM (CDT)
My turn to win.
Posted by HAWK in Irvine, CA on September 16, 2006 at 9:20 AM (CDT)
Bonjour. Hello.
Posted by Arthur Lee in Irvine, CA on September 16, 2006 at 4:07 PM (CDT)
It would be cool to get something for free…and it would really nice because I cont afford it right now to. :(
Posted by Daniel in Irvine, CA on September 17, 2006 at 7:48 PM (CDT)
Since I have 3 sets of speakers already (stereo, mini with subwoofer and portable ipod) I wouldn't really need these..
I guess If I won I would sell it uber cheap on eBay.
Posted by Jonah in Irvine, CA on September 19, 2006 at 12:10 AM (CDT)
May I please have one.
Posted by Maureen Kennedy in Irvine, CA on September 19, 2006 at 5:38 PM (CDT)
Can I win something for once in my life.
Posted by Richard Forney in Irvine, CA on September 20, 2006 at 8:54 AM (CDT)
I agree to the terms, and…stuff.
Posted by Mike Plotz in Irvine, CA on September 20, 2006 at 3:46 PM (CDT)
winning would be good for a change
Posted by anitra in Irvine, CA on September 20, 2006 at 4:32 PM (CDT)
no whammies! Big Money!
Posted by Paul Valerio in Irvine, CA on September 22, 2006 at 4:09 PM (CDT)
if i win you send it to israel as well?
Posted by Ben David in Irvine, CA on September 23, 2006 at 11:29 AM (CDT)
like, this is totally cool LMAO
Posted by hariet in Irvine, CA on September 25, 2006 at 4:56 AM (CDT)
This thing is so cool! I really hope I win, cause I can't wait to see how this thing works in practice. It looks perfect! Like the iWoofer only better!
Posted by Victor Solberg in Irvine, CA on September 25, 2006 at 1:20 PM (CDT)
Viva le iLounge (I'm not French), so far the odds are not bad I might actually get them.
Posted by Eugene Shcherbina in Irvine, CA on September 25, 2006 at 4:23 PM (CDT)
They're just so beautiful! or should I say, belle! belle! J'adore le mStation Orb!
Posted by Dylan Jay in Irvine, CA on September 26, 2006 at 6:14 AM (CDT)
i hope ill win this, cause i practically never do in any sort of giveaways ^^
Posted by v1q in Irvine, CA on September 26, 2006 at 6:30 AM (CDT)
I'd love to win, they're so cool! =)
Posted by Krista Anderson in Irvine, CA on September 26, 2006 at 2:24 PM (CDT)
Love to win
Posted by Jamie Hoban in Irvine, CA on September 27, 2006 at 7:21 AM (CDT)
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Welcome to Logic Masters India
Welcome to the homepage of the Indian puzzle and sudoku teams. If you have an inclination towards puzzle solving and have the ambition of representing India at the World Championships for Puzzles and Sudoku then you have come to the right place.
We, at Logic Masters are responsible for selecting the national teams for the World Puzzle and Sudoku Championships. The group aims at encouraging puzzle solving activities in India.
We aim to find and hone talent from the deep ends of India and nurture the dream to see India finish at the podium. With this goal we have been organizing various puzzle competitions to recognize talent within the country. Go ahead, explore and unlock the mysterious world of puzzles !!
At this site, you will find monthly Sudoku competitions, monthly Puzzle competitions, lot of downloadable puzzles and sudokus, and few interactively solvable puzzles.LMI Content Sharing All creative content published at LMI in the form of monthly tests and other contests can be downloaded, and distributed for any non-commercial purpose. However , if the content is required for commercial use, LMI must be contacted and a written letter of permission must be procured before any such use. All content are copyrighted to the respective authors who created the content and LMI will only allow commercial use if the authors approve the same.
You may ask any queries on the forum, but before doing so, we request you to read F.A.Q.
Best blackjack strategies https://onlineblackjack.money/strategies/.Latest 5 threads
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M. T. Harmon, Corporation for National and Community Service
More Americans — 64.3 million — volunteered in 2011 than in the past the five years, an increase of 1.5 million more volunteers than 2010, according to a new report released by the Corporation for National & Community Service.
Also, 34.4 percent of people volunteered through religious organizations last year, the highest percentage in any sector, according to the report. Religious organizations often provide the best structure for organized volunteering and the best insight into on-the-ground-needs, said Wendy Spencer, CEO of CNCS.
High levels of volunteerism and civic engagement can lead to lower unemployment rates and stronger economic communities, she added.
Value of time
Altogether, Americans volunteered approximately 7.9 billion hours with formal organizations in 2011, with a value of $171 billion, according to the report.
"Volunteerism is part of supporting the economy in America by providing these services and time," Spencer said. "It's part of our citizenship."
The economic opportunity that comes with volunteering cannot be overlooked, she said. It addition to strengthening the economy of a community or state, volunteering can reap economic benefits for an individual. College graduates, young adults and those in a "transition" stage between high school and college have perhaps the most to gain.
"Volunteer by day. Prepare your resume at night," she said. "If you are volunteering with an organization during the day you are building up your skills, networking and meeting new people. I really believe that volunteering can lead to economic opportunity."
Desire to help
Some increase in the number of volunteers can be attributed to nonprofits and service organizations better articulating on-the-ground needs to potential volunteers, Spencer said.
"Sometimes when times are really tough organizations do a very good job of promoting the need. People do not like to hear that others may be homeless or going hungry."
Technology has also allowed people to help in ways like never before, said Sandy Scott, senior adviser for the CPCS. He noted the advent of volunteer search engines where people can search for opportunities by location that match their skills and interest.
"Technology has helped people get involved in a lot of new ways, whether it is across town or across the world," he said. "Social media is a way that people are learning about opportunities to serve and hearing about the impact they make."
Disasters, such as Hurricane Sandy, also present an opportunity for volunteering and service, Spencer said.
"Responding to disasters often brings out the best in Americans. We have a strong desire to help our neighbors in need."
The overall volunteering picture in America is "encouraging," Spencer said, and she cited an increase in parent volunteerism as a positive trend. Parents' volunteer rate is 33.7 percent and the national average is 26.8, according to the report.
"If parents of school-age children can volunteer, certainly the rest of us can give a little more of our time. This a good thing that parents are getting more engaged in their communities."
Spencer is also encouraged by the increasing number of applications for AmeriCorps, which is a national nonprofit partnership through which thousands of people volunteer every year. The number of applications last year for AmeriCorps was 582,000, she said.
"We are at our highest level of applications in history. So that says there is a great need and there is interest."
The interest and desire to help others can be traced back to our nation's history, Scott said.
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Fog/Mist ~
High: 82°F ~ Low: 67°F
Friday, July 29, 2016
The Dying Soul and ReplyPosted Monday, January 9, 2012, at 11:27 AM
Sound the Shofar, Call the Faithful to Moedim, don't worry about the obstacles, they're much smaller than they seem. Turn the heart to Jesus, before mortality ends, so you, as I, can be with Him, until Eternity Ends (NOT).
The Dying Soul
Dying Soul Response
To know that Rita Broden, never truly did, 'Just die.'
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Hear ye! Hear ye!
Step right up, boys and girls, step right up......we are proud to pry open, for the first time ever, that tasteless and fun "slam bam, git in the dirt, m'am" thread.....The Cyburbia Death Pool 2009 Edition. Come on down, join the festivities!
We are absolutely positive that Calendar Year 2009 will bring us.....
Folks that die that we expected to die.
Folks that die that we did not expect to die.
Real surprise deaths.
Folks that didn't die and we expected them to die.
Folks that didn't die and we "wanted" them to die.
Note that there are tons of internet sites that offer recommendations for these excursions into Grim Reaper territory. Start doing your homework. Check those sites. Tune into pop programs that discuss the "serious" nature of so-and-so's cancer. Wipe off that crystal ball.
Generally speaking, our Cyburbian participants have not done well. Most of us have just a single correct pick or two, as a year closes. A few contenders always seem to be the leaders. As a group, let's see if we can improve our score!
The Rules
This Bear will moderate, because nobody else seems to want this grave job. Not a problem if I do it again.....not a problem if somebody else jumps in and volunteers to moderate. Remember, as a moderator your responsibility is to provide scoring updates, periodically. The Death Pool Moderator will also provide a final call on any questionable death or situation. (Hardly ever happens!)
You are allowed 10 picks. You are also allowed to indicate in your posting that you have alternate picks if one of the choices on your 2009 list actually croaks in the last 30-some days of 2008. Strongly encourage folks to make their list but do not submit it until near the final bell. Makes it easier on the moderator.
This thread will close near-midnight on December 31, 2008. Early in 2009, another thread will creak open (like the casket in a scary movie). That will be the UPDATE thread. It will be the "catch-all" for 2009 deaths, comments about those deaths, and the periodic (usually every quarter) standings update.
Now get your shovels and start digging !!!
".....a tisket, a tasket......who's gonna be in the casket?....."


text: Guitarist/singer/songwriter Bob Mould was initially a member of Hüsker Dü, one of the most influential American bands of the '80s. Hüsker Dü was a post-hardcore punk band that helped define the sound and ideals of alternative rock. After Hüsker Dü broke up, Mould signed a solo contract with Virgin Records in 1988. The following year he released his first solo album, Workbook, which represented a major shift in sonic direction. Workbook was an introspective collection, featuring ... Read more


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Want more about Windows?
Sign up for TechRepublic's Microsoft in the Enterprise newsletter and get the latest developments, analysis, and weekly hands-on tips from Windows expert Ed Bott.
The send to feature in Windows is a quick way to move files around on your PC, but the default list of destinations may not be the ones you use most. Here's how to customize your send to destinations:
To customize the list, press the Windows key + R. Then type the command shell:sendto and press enter.
The folder with all the items you see on the Send To list will pop up. To delete an item, just right click it and select delete. To add destinations, like the Videos or Music folders, by dragging them from the menu on the left.


text:
"Commonwealth Club tours offer a unique travel experience: in-depth exploration of destinations, invaluable background and on-site educational insights, direct personal participation in local events, and great companionship along the way."
Waterways of Russia: From St. Petersburg to Moscow
Begin in beautiful St. Petersburg with a cultural performance at the Alexandrinsky Theater and a visit to Catherine's Palace to see the famous Amber Room. Enjoy an early entrance to the State Hermitage Museum, before our 6-night cruise on the Volga, Svir and Neva Rivers. Journey to the quaint village of Mandrogi, and Kizhi Island, where churches stand as testimony to the skills of Russian craftsmen. Explore Goritsy, once closed to western visitors; Yaroslavl, home to one of Russia's oldest monasteries; and the historic town of Uglich. Enjoy specially arranged visits to the Kremlin and the Armory Museum in Moscow. Wander through Red Square, admiring colorful St. Basil's Cathedral. Learn about Russia's history from revolution to communism, Gorbachev to Putin, and examine the country's challenges today.
from $3,495, per person, double occupancy


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When my car is park or neutral the RPM's go from 700 to 1500 back and forth. Not really sure what needs to be done. When the Air conditioning is turned on the RPM's stabilize at about 500. Any help would be greatly appreciated: -)
Tuesday, December 31st, 2013 AT 4:33 PM


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Reedsburg woman drives through building
Posted August 26th, 2014 @ 8:24am by 1310 WIBA
A 70-year-old Reedsburg woman drove through the entire first floor of an apartment building the other day.
Police were called to the 2000 block of Viking Drive and found Shirley Treptow had, in fact, driven through the building.
Her vehicle entered the building through an east wall and exited through the south wall. She passed right through an unoccupied bedroom. The residents of that unit were unhurt.
Treptow was treated for minor injuries. She says a stuck accelerator is to blame for the accident.


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Type: Posts; User: labber
I wouldnt use anythink to delay it as I know some who did use a product and he was never able to breed her again
Drakeshead kennels are close by me and theyre DVD set is well worth checking out.
Hi Im very interested in this topic as my 2 year old lab appears to be damaging birds. She never makes a mark on a bumper but appears to damage the rib cage of some birds. She is very fast and picks...


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Chris McCormick & the Management of Grief
photo: Jenna Meacham
"The Antelope Valley is not the California most people imagine," Chris McCormick writes. "This could be a good thing, but almost never is. The stories in McCormick's debut collection, Desert Boys, are centered around Daley Kushner, a young man who grew up in Antelope Valley, left to go to school in Berkeley, and became a writer—much like McCormick himself. How much like, I wouldn't know, but I can tell you that stories like "Mother, Godfather, Baby, Priest" and "You're Always a Child When People Talk About Your Future" give a strong sense of what it must have been like to come of age as a gay, half-Armenian teenager in the desert north of Los Angeles in the years just after 9/11, and finding your way toward an adult identity as a twentysomething today.
I guess one reason for stories is the management of grief. The grief in question can be shared or private, but sometimes, fluttering between worlds, it can be both. Like a spirit, or—more interesting to me—like any regular person torn between an old home and a new home, or between belonging to a community and relying on an idea of selfhood, or between the raucousness of an inner life and the contrived but more palatable version we present to others. These conflicts, I think, are some of the prices we pay for freedom, and they only get more tangled and impossible to parse when grief, the fluttering kind, is involved.
Shaila Bhave, the narrator of Bharati Mukherjee's "The Management of Grief," has just lost her husband and sons to the terrorist bombing of Air India Flight 182. The plane—from Canada to Delhi through the UK—has exploded over Irish waters, killing the 329 people onboard, most of whom were Canadian-Indians visiting the country, and the family, they'd left behind.
Shaila—just one of hundreds in her community whose family has been ruptured by the attack—quickly garners a reputation as "a pillar," somebody who has taken the tragedy "more calmly" than the others. But what others see as strength, Shaila understands to be a deep flaw: "This terrible calm will not go away."
7 May 2016 | selling shorts |
Susan Perabo & Wolff's Audacious "Bullet"
photo: Sha'an Chilson
The short story Susan Perabo has chosen to write about is one of my own favorite short stories, and the thing that draws her to that story is similar to what draws me to "This Is Not That Story," one of the stories in her new collection, Why They Run the Way They Do. Perabo plays with our recognition of the act of reading a short story, of the expectations that we bring to such an experience, of how it will be told and what it will tell us, and yet when she dodges and weaves past those expectations, the self-consciousness is barely visible, and never distracting. The metafictional elements are front and center, yet it's the fictional components that have stayed with me long after I've finished reading. In her other stories, her technique calls even less attention to itself, but remains at that consistent level of excellence. If you care about short stories, Susan Perabo should be on your radar—if she hasn't been before, then you're in for a great surprise.
Great short stories happen to you. In this way, stories are more like poems than like novels. A short story is a singular, uninterrupted experience, an event, occurring all at once. If you are someone who is passionate about literature, you probably have at least one story that's so profound an event in your life that you recall where you were when you first read it, in the same way you recall where you were when you received some important, life changing piece of news. In the case of the story, maybe your whole life didn't change, but your reading life, or your writing life did.
One story that happened to me is Tobias Wolff's "Bullet in the Brain." I was at my job as a literature tutor for the intercollegiate athletes at the University of Arkansas. I was in the women's study hall, located in the old Barnhill Arena. I was "on call," which meant I sat around reading magazines until a student needed to talk with me about Oedipus or Gatsby or Marvell's coy mistress. Most nights I was in the men's study hall and worked pretty much nonstop, but once a week I was in the women's study hall and had a lot of time to read. (Not a judgment—just an observation.)
The reading I had that night was the September 25th, 1995 issue of The New Yorker. It included the story "Bullet in the Brain," which I noted happily was only three pages long. This was good because it meant I likely could read it without interruption.
7 March 2016 | selling shorts |


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text:
Standard Article
Forecasting, Environmental
Stochastic Modeling and Environmental Change
Published Online: 15 SEP 2006
DOI: 10.1002/9780470057339.vaf007
Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Book Title
Encyclopedia of Environmetrics
Additional Information
How to Cite
Young, P. C. and Pedregal, D. J. 2006. Forecasting, Environmental. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics. 3.
Publication History
- Published Online: 15 SEP 2006
- Abstract
- Article
- Figures
- References
The term 'environmental forecasting' is open to a range of interpretations, from 'black-box' time series analysis and forecasting, based on relatively simple stochastic methods; to 'mechanistic' prediction based on 'physically meaningful', and normally quite complex, deterministic simulation models. In this entry, however, we concentrate on stochastic forecasting methods based on models that range from purely black-box time series characterizations of data to data-based mechanistic (DBM) models that are physically meaningful but, at the same time, fairly simple in their structure and signal topology [1].
There are numerous statistical approaches to forecasting, from simple, regression-based methods to optimal statistical procedures formulated in stochastic State–Space (SS) terms. Since it would be impossible to review all these methods here, this entry first reviews briefly those that are felt to have most significance in theoretical and practical terms within the specific context of environmental forecasting. It then discusses in more detail a unified approach to forecasting based on a generic unobserved component (UC) model, formulated in stochastic, SS terms.
A Brief Review of Model-Based Forecasting
The more recent approaches to stochastic forecasting are all model-based and allow inherently for the specification of dynamic relationships. They began with a consideration of simple, univariate series, stimulated by the discovery that such models were not only simpler to estimate, but they could often produce forecasts that compared well with, and often out-performed, those generated by much larger mechanistic models.
Some of the earliest and simplest univariate options are those based on forms of exponential smoothing (ES). These were introduced by Holt [2] and Winters [3] but, because of their practical utility and success, they are still used today. Different versions of these ES forecasting procedures are available, but the general idea is the synthesis of forecasting functions on the basis of discounted past observations. These apparently ad hoc methods can, however, be justified and unified by reference to both the univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model (see Time Series) and alternative UC models [4].
Although there were a number of important contributions dealing with the ARIMA class of models prior to 1970, that year marked the beginning of the popularization of this model and its associated forecasting methodology, with the publication of Box and Jenkins' most influential book Time-series Analysis, Forecasting and Control [5]. Indeed, the influence of this monograph has been so great that it is considered by some authors to mark the beginning of modern forecasting developments. This methodology has served as the basis of innumerable developments and extensions since 1970, as the number of published books on the subject clearly demonstrates (see [6-11]). Also within the univariate context are AR Fractional Integrated MA (ARFIMA) models (e.g. [12]), in which the integration order is not necessarily an integer number, as assumed in ARIMA models. This latter model has become a popular type of 'long memory' model, with obvious environmental implications.
One important extension of the univariate models is to multivariate or vector AR and ARMA models (VAR; VARMA), as introduced by Quenouille [13] and Tiao and Box [14], and described in the book by Lütkepohl [15]. Often, VAR is preferred to VARMA because any VARMA model can be expressed as an equivalent (although parametrically less efficient) VAR model and, in addition, the estimation methods are simpler in the latter case. In particular, estimation of the VAR model can be carried out separately equation-by-equation using linear least squares methods, without any loss of efficiency. Versions of these models with exogenous input variables have also been developed (i.e. VARMAX and VARX models).
Another time-series approach that has developed in parallel with the previous methodologies and, indeed, can subsume some of them straightforwardly, is the UC model (also known in the econometrics literature as the structural model (SM): see [4]). As we shall see in the next section, these models are based on a decomposition of the time series into simple components (sometimes also called 'stylized facts').
The UC approach to forecasting can be divided roughly into two groups. First, those methods that are based directly on the UC model and take a variety of forms depending upon the nature of the stochastic models used to define the components (e.g. [4, 16-25]). Second, reduced form models, in which the UC model components are inferred from other models, most notably the Box–Jenkins ARIMA type. (e.g. [26-28]). However, in this reduced form approach, the UC components are used simply as submodels for signal extraction, normally without an integrated option for forecasting.
The Unobserved Component Model
In their present form, UC models derive originally from the statistics and econometrics literature, where they have been variously termed dynamic linear models [16] (see Dynamic Model) and structural models [4]. However, their origin is intimately linked with state–space methods of recursive estimation (e.g. [22, 29]) and, in particular, the Kalman Filter (KF) [30].
Various Approaches to UC Modeling
The components of the UC model normally include a low frequency stochastic trend; a (possibly damped) periodic cycle defined at fundamental and associated harmonic frequencies; and an irregular component, normally considered as a zero mean, serially uncorrelated sequence of random variables (white noise). In the case of univariate time series (e.g. the famous Mauna Loa atmospheric CO2 series shown in Figure 1), these components are normally visually recognizable both in a temporal plot of the series and in its associated frequency spectrum.
However, in the environmental context, multivariable processes are often active, so that the environmental variable of interest may be affected by one or more input or 'exogenous' variables entering the model through regression or transfer function (TF) terms. A typical example is the flow or 'discharge' series shown in the upper panel of Figure 2, which is obviously affected by the local rainfall shown in the lower panel.
Reflecting their perceived importance in a forecasting and signal extraction context, many extensions of UC models have been developed. For instance, new models for trend and seasonal components have been introduced recently, including a facility to allow for the modulation of one periodic component by another (e.g. a diurnal component modulated by a weekly component: see [31, 32]); the introduction of nonlinear and TF components (e.g. [23]); and the use of vector models including phenomena such as cointegration [21, 34, 35].
Theoretical and Algorithmic Background
For simplicity in this entry, attention will be restricted to univariate UC models; i.e. a model that can be used for forecasting a single time series variable, although it is assumed that this variable may be affected by other input variables. A typical univariate UC model of this type takes the following form:
- (1)
where Tt is a nonstationary trend or very low frequency component; Ct is a cyclical or periodic component that may have time variable amplitude and phase characteristics; f(Ut) are linear or nonlinear relations between the outputs and any specified inputs, denoted here by the vector Ut; Nt is colored (often assumed ARMA) noise; and et is a zero mean, serially uncorrelated white noise sequence with variance σ2. In this formulation, Ct may represent cyclical components of any period that seems appropriate, e.g. in a typical environmental application they could represent annual, weekly, or diurnal cycles, or combinations of these (see Temporal Change).
For estimation purposes, 1 is considered in the following alternative vector 'observation equation' form:
- (2)
where Ht relates the various components in 1 to the n-dimensional stochastic state vector xt. The definition of xt and exact form of Ht will depend upon the nature of the components in 1 and the assumed model for their stochastic evolution. However, in general terms, this evolution is defined by a set of stochastic state equations of the following form:
- (3)
Here, ut is an m-dimensional vector of inputs that may have elements in common with Ut; and ηt is an n-dimensional vector of (typically assumed Gaussian) system disturbances, i.e. zero-mean white-noise inputs with covariance matrix Q. In general, et is assumed to be independent of ηt, and these two noise inputs are assumed to be independent of the initial state vector x0. A, B, G and Ht are, respectively, the n × n, n × m, n × n and 1 × n matrices, some elements of which are known and others of which need to be estimated. The manner in which these matrices are defined in specific applications is discussed in the cited publications. Two environmental examples relating to data shown in Figures 1 and 2 are considered later.
State Estimation
The main reason for formulating the system model in discrete-time state–space (SS) terms is to facilitate the process of recursive estimation by exploiting the power of the KF (see Space-Time Kalman Filter) and fixed interval smoothing (FIS, [36]) algorithms. In recursive estimation, which has a long history, going back to Gauss (see e.g. [22]), the estimates of model parameters and states are updated sequentially while working through the data in some specified order, usually forward or reverse in time. It is well known that this allows for a number of useful operations when dealing with real data, operations that are not normally available in other forecasting/signal extraction algorithms. If missing data are detected anywhere within, or immediately outside, the data set, then the filtering and smoothing algorithms simply replace the missing samples by their expectations, based on the SS model and the data. In this way, the KF can produce multiple-step ahead forecasts, while FIS can provide interpolations and backcasts of the series. Also, it is useful in 'variance intervention' (e.g. [37]) and related, more complex, methods for handling sudden changes in the trend level.
For a data set of N observations, the KF algorithm runs forward in time and yields a 'filtered' estimate of the state vector xt at every sample t, based on the time-series data up to sample t. The FIS algorithm, in contrast, is applied subsequent to the filtering pass and runs in reverse time, producing a 'smoothed' estimate of xt which, at every sample t, is based on all N observations of the data. This means that, as more information is used in the latter estimate, its mean square error cannot be greater than the former. As these algorithms are discussed in detail in other references (including some of those already cited), we will not pursue the topic further (see, for example, [4, 19, 22, 25]).
Optimization of Hyper-Parameters
The application of the recursive KF/FIS algorithms requires knowledge of the system matrices A, B and Ht, together with the noise covariance matrix Q and the variance σ2 of the white noise et. In many cases, the latter variance–covariance parameters can be combined to form a noise variance ratio (NVR) matrix Qr = Q/σ2 (usually assumed to be diagonal for simplicity). Depending on the particular structure of the model, there will be a number of elements in the above matrices that are known a priori (often zeros and ones). Normally, however, there will be some unknown elements, referred to as hyper parameters that must be estimated in some manner. Of particular importance within this stochastic setting are the diagonal elements of the NVR matrix. These NVR parameters inject a statistical degree of freedom into the model and so allow for stochastic variations in the state variables. As we shall see, this is the primary mechanism for estimating temporal changes in the parameters and variables of the UC model (see also the discussion in [38]).
There are a number of ways of handling this hyper-parameter estimation problem. The best known approach is based on maximum likelihood (ML) optimization in the time domain. Assuming that all the disturbances in the SS model are normally distributed, the log-likelihood function can be computed using the KF and a technique known as 'prediction error decomposition' [4, 39]. The hyper parameters can then be estimated by numerical optimization of this likelihood function.
There is no doubt that ML has theoretical and practical advantages. Its optimal properties are well-known and, in the above form, it is generally applicable if Gaussian assumptions are valid. But ML in the time domain is not the only estimation method available. Other methods are discussed in [4, 19, 21, 25, 27, 28, 40]. This last reference suggests an alternative frequency domain (YFD) method for hyper parameter optimization that appears to be superior to ML, particularly for higher-dimensional models. In particular, the optimum is much better defined and computation times are much less than those required for equivalent ML optimization. Indeed, ML very often fails to converge at all in these higher-dimensional situations and convergence may only be achieved if several harmonics in the seasonal components are constrained to have the same hyper parameters. Paradoxically, therefore, the YFD method can produce solutions that are even better in likelihood terms than the constrained versions of the same model estimated directly by ML optimization (see [25]).
Most of the methods mentioned here have been implemented in statistical packages available commercially. These include: the CAPTAIN Matlab Tool-box (see http:/cres1.lancs.ac.uk/ systems.html); STAMP® [18]; BATS® [20]; and SEATS® [28]. Of course, no one optimization and estimation method will outperform the rest in all situations, and all have their own particular advantages and disadvantages. Consequently, as is often the case, the user's experience and knowledge is essential in selecting the best option for each application.
Other publications illustrate how the modeling and forecasting procedure outlined above can be applied to environmental and other time series (see [41] and the prior references therein). Here, however, we will consider two simple but practically important environmental examples relating to the environmental time series shown in Figures 1 and 2.
Mauna Loa Atmospheric CO2 Series
The complete analysis of this CO2 series is described in [42]. Given the nature of the series, the specific UC model takes the form:
- (4)
where the trend Tt is a polynomial in t, with unknown but constant parameters a0, a1 and a2, combined with a residual signal dt that models the stochastic deviations about this polynomial trend. The annual seasonality is then modeled by:
- (5)
where ω1 = 2π/12 is the fundamental frequency associated with the 12 month cycle and ω2 = 2π/6 is its first harmonic. The spectrum of the data suggests that the other harmonics are insignificant and can be omitted. The time variable parameters (TVPs) ajt and bjt, j = 1,2, allow for possible temporal variations in the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle.
Equations 4 and 5 are a special version of the dynamic harmonic regression (DHR) model [25]. The associated stochastic state equations 3 are composed of simple random walk (RW) models (see Stochastic Process) for dt, ajt and bjt; and the hyper parameters are the NVRs (see earlier discussion) associated with these models. In other words, A is a fifth-order identity matrix; B is a null matrix since there are no deterministic inputs; G is a 5 × 1 vector with all unity entries; and H is defined as follows:
- (6)
where Cj = cos(ωjt) and Sj = sin(ωjt), for j = 1,2. The NVR matrix is then defined as a diagonal matrix with diagonal elements NVRj, j = 1,2,…,5, equal to the individual NVRs. These define the variances of the white noise inputs to the RW models for dt, ajt and bjt (j = 1,2), respectively. However, because of the nature of the periodic components, it makes sense to constrain the NVRs associated with each component (note: not all components) to be equal. The resultant three NVRs are optimized by the YFD method in the frequency domain (see [25]) and the polynomial parameters aj, j = 0,1,2 are estimated concurrently by linear regression in an iterative 'backfitting' procedure (see [42]). This procedure yields the following optimized parameters:
Typical interpolation and forecasting results obtained using the optimized model, as generated by Matlab m-files using tools from the CAPTAIN Matlab Toolbox mentioned earlier, are presented in Figures 3, 4 and 5. For this analysis, the estimation data set consisted of the first 313 samples (1958(1)– 1985(5)) but with two years of data between 1971(8) and 1973(8) omitted to show how the algorithms interpolate over such a gap. True multistep ahead forecasting is carried out in the short (3 years ahead) and long (14.42 years ahead to 1999(12)) terms, respectively, based only on the estimated model and the estimation data set.
The top panel in Figure 3 shows the two year interpolation results, while the lower panel shows the three year-ahead forecasts. In both cases, the results are excellent with very small errors between the interpolates/forecasts (full lines) and the data (dashed lines: not used in the analysis). The estimated error bounds (95% confidence intervals) are shown as dotted lines. Figure 4 presents the main signals extracted by the FIS algorithm during this analysis. The top two panels show, respectively, the estimated 12 and 6 month components of the annual cycle; the estimate of dt is plotted in the third panel; and the very small final residual (the estimate of et) is shown in the lower panel. As required, the innovations process [22, 42] has the desired white noise properties.
Figure 5 shows the last five and a half years of the 14.4 year-ahead forecast. Here, the data (again not used in the estimation or forecasting) are plotted as circular points and the forecast as a full line, with the error bounds again shown dotted. Given the very long forecasting interval, these results are quite remarkable and show how predictable this important series can be if sufficiently powerful forecasting algorithms are utilized.
Finally, it is worth referring back to the estimate of dt shown in the third panel of Figure 4. This represents an estimate of the deviations about the polynomial trend after the seasonal pattern and residuals have been removed. The origin of this signal is not clear but earlier research [43] suggested that it might be associated with the El-Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Although this is not proven in any way, it is supported by the present analysis which shows that the extracted signal correlates quite well with the ENSO anomaly series over the same time period of 1958–2000 [42].
River Hodder Rainfall–Flow Series
The complete analysis of the rainfall–flow data series is described in [33]. The UC model in this case is quite different from that used in the previous example, since there is no trend or periodicity in the flow data. As a result, the main component is the nonlinear function f(Ut) where Ut represents two, additive and unobserved flow components, both of which derive nonlinearly from the rainfall rt via a second-order TF model:
- (7)
In terms of 3, the associated stochastic state equations are defined by A, B, G and H as follows:
- (8)
- (9)
and, in this case, the scalar input ut is the 'effective rainfall', a delayed, nonlinear transformation of the measured rainfall rt. In these definitions, the parameters α1 = 0.753, α2 = 0.986, β1 = 0.0055 and β2 = 0.147 are obtained from prior TF modeling using an iterative optimization procedure combining optimal instrumental variable (IV) estimation of the TF parameters with state dependent parameter (SDP) estimation of the effective rainfall nonlinearity (see [44-48]).
Flow forecasting is quite difficult because, nominally, it requires concurrent forecasting of the rainfall rt, which is obviously problematical, particularly in England's changeable and unpredictable climate. However, forecasts are usually only required a few hours ahead (see, for example, [49] or the entry on meteorology) and, in this example, the TF model exhibits a four-hour pure time delay between the occurrence of rainfall events and the first effect of these on flow. As a result, rt is known over this delay period and can be utilized to compute ut, which then acts as a 'leading indicator' to generate good flow forecasts. This is demonstrated in Figure 6, which compares the four-hour-ahead forecasts of flow on the River Hodder with the measured flows. Here, the two diagonal elements of the Qr NVR matrix are optimized at values of NVR(x1) = 0 and NVR(x2) = 0.023, respectively. In other words, the first flow component (x1) is defined exactly by the prior TF model predictions, while the second component x2 is 'adapted' by the KF algorithm from the prior TF model predictions to a degree determined by the associated NVR.
The performance of the forecasting algorithm is quite good: the coefficient of determination of the four-hour-ahead forecasts is R2 = 0.872, compared with R2 = 0.484 for a naive or 'persistence' forecast (forecast equal to present value).
Note that, in this example, the model parameters are assumed to be constant, unlike the 'parameter-adaptive' flood forecasting system described in [49]. Although, as in this reference, TVP estimation could be used here, the prior TF estimation results justify the constant parameter assumption and this makes the forecasting algorithm simpler and more practically robust. As a result, the recursive analysis in this case yields short-term, 'state-adaptive' forecasts of flow, in the sense that the adjustment of the flow estimates derive from the stochastic estimates of the two flow components x1,t and x2,t, rather than any adjustment of the TF model parameters. This is in contrast to the 'parameter-adaptive' forecasts of the Mauna Loa CO2 series, where the model parameters are being continually adjusted to reflect any estimated nonstationarity in the series.
Finally, although the model used in this example has been presented so far as a 'black-box' representation of the rainfall–flow process, this is not the case. The model is, in fact, a good example of a DBM model (see [45], and the prior references therein). In other words, the data-based model can be interpreted in hydrologically meaningful terms. In particular, the state equations represent a 'parallel flow' process, often encountered in hydrological systems (e.g. [50]), with the state x1,t modeling the 'fast', surface processes in the river catchment; and the second state x2,t modeling the 'slow', subsurface processes (see Catchment Hydrology). In addition, the estimated effective rainfall nonlinearity, which is a function of flow, can be interpreted in terms of the continually changing soil moisture characteristics of the catchment, with the flow acting as a 'surrogate' measure of soil moisture [1].
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Dr. Robert T. Bakker is one of the most respected vertebrate paleontologists in the world. Often credited with starting the "Dinosaur Rennaisance," he is curator of paleontology at the Houston Museum of Natural Science.
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Tuition/fee: $189.85
Seats Open: 15
Instructor: TBA
Program Restriction
Dates: 08/30/16-12/20/16
Days: Tuesday
Times: 04:30pm-09:20pm
Room: I155