text:
B. DHT: Activates transcription of target atom v /c Average energy emitted in radiation therapy Additional Therapies See General Measures; myofascial physical therapy, phytotherapies, acupuncture should be performed until urine cultures show no evidence of prostate cancer develops castration resistant prostate cancer: http://www.auanet.org/content/media/cryosurgery6.pdf (Accessed July 11, 2010) 4. AUA guidelines: Guideline for the vasorelaxing effect of currents at the internal sphincter. 21. Alkaline urine produced by the findings of chronic pyelonephritis from vesicoureteral reflux. D. It is at least 5.6×7−6 Gy.
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Have you ever had a 3 year old in a dance class? What class was a hit or miss?
Our options are:
dance twirl
tap & ballet combo
I don't know what to pick!!
Have you ever had a 3 year old in a dance class? What class was a hit or miss?
Our options are:
dance twirl
tap & ballet combo
I don't know what to pick!!
�Emily ~ momma to Mikayla, Alessandra & Luca
I signed my then four year old up for a "dance buffet" class (just a basic intro to dancing) through our sports center. The class was for 3-4 year olds. She participated in every single class with enthusiasm, but when the day of the recital came, she refused to go to the front of the room and perform.
So that could happen. There was also a little girl who stood against the wall and watched the class happen for every single class. Every single girl in the class would stop and do something else in the room at some point during the sessions, as well.
Point being, yes, it's going to be hit or miss at this age. Don't expect them to be fully focused.
Danielle, babycenter community moderator
I wanted to start DD in ballet but the darn Rec Center changed the schedule this season. The Friday class (my day off) is now a combo ballet, jazz, tap class. I signed her up even though I wish it was ballet only. I figure if it is something she actually likes, then we can move to a real school.
The downside is b/c it is a combo class, I have to buy 2 pairs of shoes, ballet and tap. Even at Payless they are $20 and $25. Grrr
♥ Bella Rose ♥ & ♥ Aria Monroe ♥
the sweetest part of every day
Everyone knows how to raise kids, except the ones that have kids
DD2 and DS4 are in the same tap/ballet class. It's offered through DsS's school and he has hip-hop at the same time. It's once a week and is just 30 minutes long.
(I managed to get tap and ballet shoes for both of the little ones as a 2nd hand shop for about $7 per pair.)
Wife, SMa(DsS18), Mama(ODS9, DD7, YDS4)
"Nonsense up with which I will not put." Winston Churchill
so cute!! :)
�Emily ~ momma to Mikayla, Alessandra & Luca
My 3 year old is in a ballet/tap combo and she LOVES it. Best money i have spent in a long time.
Mommy to 7 and 5 year old princesses and a 4 year old prince
I was 3 when I started ballet
Duh Jersey. They're cows. They are�lunchmeat.- ga_freckles
DD was 2.5 when she started ballet/tap. It was a great investment, as she really had a ball and loved being with the other little girls. It taught her a little bit of discipline, which is not really necessary at 3, but just to learn that you have to sit when told, keep quiet when the teacher's talking, etc. And she LOVED the recital!
She's almost 6 now and is more interested in gymnatics and swimming, so we did decide to quit ballet. But she loved it there for a while and I think 3 is a great age to start.
Swinging with VIGAH since 2004
"Listen here you beautiful bitch; I'm about to fuck you up with some truth." --kenny powers
Tot started a tap/jazz/ballet combo class last year a couple of weeks before she turned 2. (Teacher normally only takes 3 & up, but made an exception because Tween's taken from her for years.) Tot loooooooves it. She did great at recital, too - even though she forgot some of the actual dance.
It really depends on the kid. Tween peed her pants onstage at her first recital (age 3 1/2) and even would rather just go to class and skip the recital. But Tot loves to be onstage and in the spotlight.
ETA: ITA with Nat about teaching discipline. Even at 3, Tot knows the rules and expectations at dance class, and has no problems following them. Now if I could just get that to work at home ...
"I have been on bitch control almost the entire time..." -magicallydelicious0
Disclaimer: Tween's actually a teen. And Tot's not really a tot anymore.

subset: commoncrawl


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Homeschool testing resources
Advanced search | Submit a homeschool tester or testing resource | Submission guidelines
Visit Minnesota Homeschoolers' Alliance for complete information on Minnesota's Annual Testing Requirement for Homeschoolers.
Twin Cities Metropolitan AreaLocal Homeschool mom administers oral Peabody and WJ-III in Twin Cities Metropolitan Area (outstate by arrangement) in your home, at a public place of your choosing or via Skype. Day, evening & Saturday appts. WJ-III is for those who have topped the Peabody or who are applying to gifted programs that require...Peabody Individual Achievement Test (PIAT) | Woodcock Johnson III Tests of Achievement (WJ-III)
I offer Peabody testing as a great option for both kids and parents to meet the standardized testing requirement in Minnesota. I offer a relaxed environment without time limitations or expectations. Each child tests up to their own ability and scores are given immediately after each test.Peabody Individual Achievement Test (PIAT)
StatewideHomeschooling mom of now adult sons. I offer testing, coaching sessions and workshops for homeschool support groups around the state. More info at my website: www.homeschoolresourcesp.comPeabody Individual Achievement Test (PIAT)
Offering untimed online MAP® and MPG® testing for grades k-12. Test at home on your own computer, iPad or chromebook. Adaptive tests allow for out-of-level testing, and our custom reports are designed specifically with the needs of homeschool parents in mind.MAP for Primary Grades (MPG) | Measures of Academic Progress (MAP)
I am an experienced teacher and homeschooler and can offer the Peabody Test at any time during the school year that works for you. I would be very pleased to serve your family and get to know your children by administering this test and helping you interpret the results for your own curriculum planning.Peabody Individual Achievement Test (PIAT)
California Achievement Test, Fifth Edition (CAT/5)
California Achievement Test (CAT)
Test in a welcoming community with a local test coordinator, supported by a national testing services company with deep roots in homeschooling. CC Testing Services takes care of the administration, leaving you time to focus on your students.SAT10 (Stanford Achievement Test Series, Tenth Edition)
PSAT/NMSQT (Preliminary SAT/National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test) | ACT (American College Testing) | SAT Reasoning Test (Scholastic Aptitude Test/Scholastic Assessment Test)
KimballI am a homeschooling mom to six children. My passion is teaching and working with children. I want testing to be as fun and stress-free as possible. I will travel to areas around central MN. I will travel to other areas if there is a group of five wanting to test. I also conduct tests via Skype.Peabody Individual Achievement Test (PIAT)
California Achievement Test (CAT)
LakevilleI specialize in Individualized Education, offering both tutoring for the ACT and Peabody Test administration. My approachable teaching style makes me a favorite with my students, which helps the "testing" feel less stressful to the student.Peabody Individual Achievement Test (PIAT) | ACT (American College Testing)
Personalized Achievement Summary System (PASS)
FarmingtonPeabody Individual Achievement Test (PIAT)
Peabody Individual Achievement Test (PIAT)
BurnsvilleCyprus Classical Academy offers MAP testing at various times during the year for homeschool families. We also are an official test center for NUMATS (Northwestern University Academic Talent Search) for fall 2013, using the EXPLORE test.EXPLORE (a preliminary PLAN/ACT test) | Measures of Academic Progress (MAP)
Iowa Test of Basic Skills (ITBS)
WasecaI am a licensed teacher with a Masters in Special Education. I offer Peabody testing as a great option for both kids and parents to meet the standardized testing requirement in Minnesota. I offer a relaxed environment. Each child tests up to their own ability and scores are given immediately after each testPeabody Individual Achievement Test (PIAT)
California Achievement Test (CAT)
Comprehensive Test of Basic Skills (CTBS).
California Achievement Test, Fifth Edition (CAT/5)


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Hi once again!
I find that in IE 6+7 if I have a div with a non background image and z index of 0, these images will be displayed on top of an overlapping div with a background colour and a z index of 2000. This should not be happening.
Any advice?


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Zappin' Your Chicken
A ton has been written about vibrating "jackets" for your, er, chicken. Every once in a while someone writes about a supposedly emerging field of sex toy technology called "teledildonics" or "cyberdildonics." From Vibrators-FAQ.com:
Teledildonics was once hailed as the future of cybersex and the ultimate in safe sex. However, nothing much has happened with this technology since its inception in the late '90s, probably due to the difficulty of implementing it over the Web.
The way it's supposed to work is that you plug a vibrator into your computer, then you establish a connection with your cyber partner via Internet. This may involve using Webcams to enhance the experience visually. Your partner, using their keyboard or other controls on their computer, can then operate your vibrator, switching it on or off or adjusting the speed. During the experience you communicate with them over Internet chat.
There was also a little bit of press in the late-1990s about a bodysuit that plugged into your computer. Here's a Salon piece from 2000 about 'em. The suit had little electronic zappers in various erogenous zones. Someone sitting at a computer in another city or state or across town would be able to zap you at will, and you would be able to zap them back. The suits were, I believe (never got to field test one), cumbersome and the stimulation wasn't enough to actually get anybody off. Some people can come from e-stim, as it's known in fetish circles, but the e-zaps have to be more intense than those provided by a body suit and the person doing the zappingusually it's the person wearing the zapperhas to be in the room in order to gauge the zappee's response, ramp up the zaps, etc. You can read more about e-stim here.
So what's up with this chicken suit? I suspect the suits at Al Jazeera are winking at their readers and viewers. They're finally getting around to writing up these new/old sex toys but, in deference to the generally sexphobic attitudes of the Muslim world, they're pretending it's just the latest in chicken-stimulation technology.


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More articles on
top down
Looking Down at New York City
A serie of photographs by Navid Baraty showing a different way to look at the city. Wathing the pace and flow of New York City from above is amazing. The constant stream of yellow taxis lining the avenues, the waves of...
Tutorial Suggestions
Over the years we have been writing tutorials about all sorts of subjects, especially Photoshop and Illustration. We want to share here with you some of our favorite ones hopping that they can help you as much as they helped us.


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Telephone & Addresses
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Julia Stephenson
16059 Valencia PA
Julia Stephenson
23434 Suffolk VA
Julia Stephenson
33060 Pompano Beach FL
Julia Stephenson, 53, Newton, W 62nd St S
View Julia's social profiles and photos on Facebook, MySpace, and +40 Networks.
Yellow Page contacts
Network Profiles
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(1 - 4 from 8
Getty Images Short Film
Basil Stephens was Executive Producer for the Film Challenge, Julia Stephenson from Short & Sweet co-ordinated the directors and the event. ...
Julia Stephenson - WA Track and Field Profile
Julia Stephenson - WA Track & Field results and photos on Athletic.net
My war on electrosmog - Independent.ie
Diagnosed by her naturopath with overexposure to Wi-Fi and mobile phone frequencies, Julia Stephenson sets out to clear the airwaves
Julia Stephenson | MaxPreps
Julia Stephenson's high school sports timeline. MaxPreps has events and updates about Julia Stephenson while she was playing softball at Coppell High School...
Management & Stakeholders
Julia Stephenson | HOLSINGER A Professional Corporation | Email...
Julia Stephenson is the Supervising Senior Accountant of HOLSINGER A Professional Corporation. Lead411's profile includes an email address,...
Business Profiles
patentbuddy: Julia A Stephenson
KRAFT FOODS GLOBAL BRANDS LLC, Cold Spring, NY, US
Julia Stephenson - Manager for Nortex Electric, LLC
View Julia R Stephenson's profile for company associations, background information, and partnerships. Search our database of over 100 million company and...
Private Homepages
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Contact | Short & Sweet
People Julia Stephenson Founding Director / Curator Cara Rust Project Co-ordinator Email: email@example.com Office number: 021 422 0742
Meg Matthews - Celebrities 'do time' for primates organised by the...
A picture of Meg Matthews, Maria Daines and Julia Stephenson London, England, Thursday 30th August 2007 - - Contactmusic photo 501530
Who and How [Updated 11th August'11]
Sallyann Teward; Ion Stoddart; Grace Hall; Ian Tallentire; Kay Hutchinson and Louise Dalton PATRONS: The Lord Barnard, T.D., The Reverend Rachel Benson DL, The Earl of Strathmore ...
Stroke Rehabilitation Unit Aphasia site
Aphasia friendly and accessible website to assist sufferers of stroke related communications disability in Baggot Street Hospital
Julia J. Stephenson - HOLSINGER
Julia resides in Valencia, PA with her husband and two daughters. Contact Information. (724) 934-4880 Ext. 329 firstname.lastname@example.com · vCard ...
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classmates: Julia Stephenson
T. W. Josey Comprehensive High School, Augusta, GA, 1997-2001
Letting Go of the Glitz - Julia Stephenson Biography product reviews...
Letting Go of the Glitz - Julia Stephenson: Over 2 independent user reviews summarized in the dooyoo conclusion ✓ Compare 3 shopping deals!
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IMDB Filmography: Julia Stephenson
Self, BBC London News
Bad news
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legacy.com: Julia W. Stephenson
JULIA WEATHERMAN STEPHENSON Of Raleigh, NC and formerly of Washington, DC died peacefully at home on September 4, 2011. Beloved wife of the late David C.
findagrave: Stephenson, Julia
11/15/1854 - 07/19/1941, Landersville (Lawrence County, Alabama)
findagrave: Stephenson, Julia
05/9/1855 - 11/26/1915, Salem (Salem County, New Jersey)
findagrave: Stephenson, Julia
09/1/1856 - 05/2/1938, Smithfield (Johnston County, North Carolina)
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Julia Stephenson (Johnson) (deceased) - Genealogy
Genealogy for Julia Stephenson (Johnson) (deceased) on Geni with over 140 million profiles of ancestors and living relatives. Page updated ...
Julia Stephenson (?) (c.1894 - 1958) - Genealogy
Genealogy for Julia Stephenson (?) (c.1894 - 1958) on Geni with over 100 million profiles of ancestors and living relatives. Page updated ...
Julia Stephenson (Laribee) (1822 - 1896) - Genealogy
Genealogy for Julia Stephenson (Laribee) (1822 - 1896) on Geni with over 140 million profiles of ancestors and living relatives. Page updated ...
Julia Stephenson Social Security Death Index SSDI Records Search
Julia Stephenson | The complete U.S. Social Security Death Index online database to discover family SS death records for free at GenealogyBank. Explore...
Julia Stephenson-Clegg is fundraising for Marie Curie
Donate online at - www.justgiving.com/Julia-Stephenson-Clegg ... code on your smartphone to go straight to Julia Stephenson-Clegg's page.
Pathfinder at Brunel University | Brunel University London
Brunel is a campus-based university situated in Uxbridge, West London, and is home to nearly 15,000 students from over 100 countries worldwide.
Julia Stephenson is fundraising for STARS
JustGiving - the easiest way to fundraise and donate to charity online
Books & Literature
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Pandoras Diamond by Julia Stephenson - AbeBooks
Pandora's Diamond by Stephenson, Julia and a great selection of similar Used, New and Collectible Books available now at AbeBooks.co.uk.
1840675152: Pandora's Diamond - Julia Stephenson
Buy Pandora's Diamond New edition by Julia Stephenson starting at €1,01, ISBN 1840675152
Letting Go Of The Glitz by Julia Stephenson — Reviews, Discussion,...
Letting Go Of The Glitz has 2 ratings and 1 review. Amanda said: At first I thought Julia Stephenson's book LETTING GO OF THE GLITZ was a fictionalized c...
The Media Bookshop
1-1 of 1 Items Found For: Julia Stephenson ... Letting Go Of The Glitz - Julia Stephenson Our Price: £7.64. RRP: £8.99 Saving You: 15% (£1.35) ...
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Publications Authored by Julia Stephenson
Publications Authored By Julia Stephenson. 2015Jun. Positive predictive value of clinical diagnosis of head and neck non-melanoma skin malignancies.
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My war on electrosmog: Julia Stephenson sets out to clear the airwaves. How one woman fought back after being diagnosed by her naturopath with overexposure ...
Pandora's diamond (Book, 1997) [WorldCat.org]
Get this from a library! Pandora's diamond. [Julia Stephenson]
M Profile: Julia Stephenson - I threw away my Guccis to go Green;...
Free Online Library: M Profile: Julia Stephenson - I threw away my Guccis to go Green; Glitzy parties and designer clothes were a way of life for It girl Julia ...
Video & Audio
BlinkX Video: Photograph Of Jesus by Laurie Hill in association with the Getty Images Short & Sweet Film Chall...
Short and Sweet has teamed up with Getty Images to launch a film challenge with a twist. Getty Images approached producer Basil Stephens and Short and Sweet founder Julia... - YouTube
BlinkX Video: Julia Stephenson Interview
Julia Stephenson talks about animal rights and reducing your carbon footprint - YouTube
Julia Stephenson - YouTube
This is where these poor dogs have lived for 2 years with a terribly painful genetic disability. We are finally getting them help and they have begun the surgery ...
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Julia Stephenson| A Londoner's Diary | ES Magazine
30.01.2009 I remember chatting to Annabel Heseltine when we were on Robert Kilroy-Silk's show to discuss the ups and downs of single life in the Nineties (the decade of 'The List'), and she confided she had put hers under a buddha in her flat and ...
Julia Stephenson, Green, Chelsea & Fulham
Julia Stephenson, Green, Chelsea & Fulham
Newcastle vicar swaps pulpit for the platform in a bid to raise money...
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Kensington & Chelsea - FT.com
The latest UK and international business, finance, economic and political news, comment and analysis ... Julia Stephenson (Green) 1,342 (4.28%, +0.15 ...
Reports & Statements
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Google Groups: My war on electrosmog: Julia Stephenson sets out to clear the ...
10.06.2007: smileycoy...@riseup.net misc activism progressive http://environment.
pinterest.com: I Have, Who Has ~ Alphabet Edition - Julia Stephenson -...
I Have, Who Has ~ Alphabet Edition - Julia Stephenson - TeachersPayTeachers.com.
julia stephenson | Tumblr
Getty Images approached producer Basil Stephens and Short and Sweet founder Julia Stephenson with the idea of setting up a film competition which would ...
Wikipedia: West Central (London Assembly constituency) - Wikipedia, the free...
... 86,651, 52.1, +7.4. Labour · Murad Qureshi, 35,270, 21.2, +2.3. Green, Julia Stephenson, 16,874, 10.1, +0.8. Liberal Democrat, Merlene Emerson, 15,934, 9.6 ...
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Anthony Retka * Julia Stephenson * Anna Bitzinger – Heyevent.com
Friday, 27 March 2015, The Dovetail, Warren. Three songwriters. One night. The Dovetail Cafe in Warren. 7:30 PM. Anthony is back for his monthly performance
Julia Stephenson & John Furlough - Wedding Registry
Julia Stephenson and John Furlough from Washington, NC have registered at Belk for their wedding on September 20, 2013. Browse all their registries in one list.
Inside Film: Film and Television Industry News and Issues for ...
01.12.2008 ... Al MacCuish, Creative Director at Mother Vision; James Spence, Creative Director at the BBC and Eliza Williams, Senior Writer at Creative Review. Matthew Butson, Vice President of the Hulton Archive completed this formidable panel. ...
summer show - closing reception
25.09.2008 by skuypers last chance to view the works of the summer show. works include paintings by lisa poszywak, kevin mccoy and jackie zimmer; drawings by inga moss; prints by stephanie sturton and emily franklin; and installation by julia stephenson.
Julia Stephenson - journalisted.com
Julia Stephenson's published articles - last 12 months*. 9 articles (since December 2007). Average article: 33 column inches (995 words).
Julia Stephenson
Julia Stephenson. Various on-screen and radio appearances as an environmental campaigner, commentator and author, with a column in the ...
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As a lifelong skinny-minny, I can assure you that being thin poses as many problems as being overweight, writes JULIA STEPHENSON.
JULIA STEPHENSON - people search, genealogy, find deceased relatives...
JULIA STEPHENSON - people search, genealogy, find deceased relatives and locate ancestors
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Julia Stephenson (@julia.stephenson) • Instagram photos and videos
Julia Stephenson. 20 posts; 524 followers; 247 following. Key West, Fl.🌴
Julia Stephenson from Charles Russell Speechlys LLP - Author Page at...
View Contact Information for Julia Stephenson from Charles Russell Speechlys LLP and details about this authors activity on Mondaq.Com
Julia Stephenson - User profile
Showcase your work, connect with filmmakers and pitch for commercial opportunities.
Julia Stephenson - Camp Wenonah
Julia Stephenson. September 1st, 2015. Posted in: Get News from Camp! Email Address*. First Name*. Last Name*. Recent Posts. Great Meals at Camp all ...
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Fulfilling the title as Art Capital of the World 2014, Cape Town born entrepreneurs, Devin Herd and Julia Stephenson, launched their fourth annual Short ...
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Julia Stephenson Limited, Summerdale Head Dyke Lane, Pilling in Pilling with Driving directions.
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Julia Stephenson - Pandora s Diamond - pb - 0747254443
Where do you go when you begin with happy ever after More information about this book 500 page paperback First published in 1997 by Headline
Julia Stephenson Teaching Resources | Teachers Pay Teachers
TeachersPayTeachers.com -- 1,700,000+ free and priced teaching resources created by teachers for instant download including lesson plans, interactive
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GIVEAWAY!! Win Tix to The 11th Annual A3C Festival & Conference
Rittz (@therealRITTZ) "Profit" Ft Yelawolf (@Yelawolf) & Shawty ...
HHW's unique celebrity weekly-format and 26x frequency have made it the #1 news and entertainment source for young adults.
Copyright © 2014 Hip Hop Global Media, LLC.
All Rights Reserved.


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Nicholas Larkins Perez / Following
MPLS.TV Minneapolis, MN
Founded in 2009, MPLS.TV is a Minneapolis-centric video network that features both original and curated/submitted content. Through the video medium, we highlight and champion the unique cultures that make our city thrive. Submit video(s): firstname.lastname@example.com http://watch.MPLS.TV http://twitter.com/MPLSTV http://facebook.com/MPLS.TV
Browse FollowingFollowing
When you follow someone on Vimeo, you subscribe to their videos, receive updates about them in your feed, and have the ability to send them messages.
Choose what appears in your feed using the Feed Manager.


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Pets for Sale in 91208(1 - 15 of 58,343)
$2,000 Honey pied color french bulldog male named SnickersFrench Bulldog · Los Angeles, CASnickers is a happy boy! Snickers white and cream pied male. Snickers 5 month old right now. He is sure to make your life complete with...championpups · 3 hours ago
$2,500 Visit French Bulldog Puppies and Buy One TodayFrench Bulldog · Los Angeles, CAWe have 6 puppies left 3 females and 3 males. Puppies ready to go. They have two vaccinations,twice dewormed,microchiped,come with papers...championpups · 3 hours ago
$700 Yellow and black Labrador PuppiesLabrador Retriever · Lincoln Heights, CAThe pups have been raised in our family home with children and all of the usual noise of family life. They are ready to join their new fa...Muhmmad R. · 11 hours ago
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Take the train from London to Stonehenge to experience the marvel & mystery of this fascinating site. Was this Stonehenge used as a burial ground? Perhaps an astronomical clock? Take a trip and use your imagination to decide for yourself!
Things To Do
You may have noticed a pattern with us lately: we're big on the "discounts and budget travel" blog posts right now. We've talked about the best budget-friendly family attractions in Europe this summer, the best ways to take advantage of the current US dollar/euro exchange rate, and our tips for recent graduates and youth travelers … Continued
Travel from Paris to Strasbourg on the high speed TGV train. Explore things to do in Paris & Strasbourg and learn how to travel between these cities by train.
With the euro being down in value compared to the dollar, now is the time to travel to Europe. Check out some popular rail passes that are down in price over 2014, making it even cheaper to travel to Europe this year.
From food markets to flea markets and from Barcelona to Budapest, we've got you covered for the best European markets to visit this summer.
Our guide to the best family attractions in Europe this summer, from Expo Milano to Tivoli Gardens & beyond! Plus train travel tips & useful advice.
The World's Fair is headed to Milan for 2015 and we couldn't be more excited. Here's your guide to Expo Milano 2015, from food to art to fun & beyond.
Explore our guide of some of the best things to do in Basel, Switzerland. Also discover how to travel by train from Paris to Basel on the high-speed TGV Est train.
Discover some great things to do in Ireland while traveling by train & ferry. We have collected fun activities to try that will save you time & money on your trip to the Emerald Isle.
Wondering what to do in Paris with that special someone? We've compiled our top 10 romantic ideas for Valentine's Day – or any day as Paris is one of the most romantic cities in Europe!
Rail Europe staff head out to explore the scenic Swiss Travel System in 72 hours in our latest TalesOnRail installment. Glacier Express, GoldenPass, & more!
Travel from Copenhagen to Stockholm with ease & in comfort on the SJ High Speed Train. Discover things to do in Copenhagen & Stockholm and learn how to travel between the cities by train.
Travel from Berlin to Munich in comfort and with ease on the high speed ICE train. Learn about things to do in Berlin & Munich and learn how to travel between these cities by train.
Swims in frozen lakes, ice rinks on top of monuments, & reindeer games: just your average winter in Europe.
Traveling from Madrid to Barcelona is fast & easy on the high-speed AVE train. Find things to do in Madrid and Barcelona and learn how to travel between the cities by train.


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Maybe CREDE was some of the shorts to begin with. This market is so crooked, I wood not put it past anyone to allow this to happen. If CREDE was part of the shorts, this will allow them to cover their shorts making a profit and then allow them to profit off of these shares they just bought in the future.
With the amount of shares sold yesterday and over 300,000 shares sold in about 1 1/2 hours today, the shorts are being allowed to cover. What amazes me is how this whole thing came about. This looks like a plan from the very beginning. THe shorts had complete control of the stock price and were not going to let it move. Now, they will be able to cover with this help and when the time comes, this stock will be allowed to move. Not until the shorts allow it to move because they are still in charge.
This action proves this once again.
I totally agree with you 3ball.These deals don't usually happen overnight and surely Crede had enough time to short this M/Fer ever since they knew that they would buy into the company trying to take the price down and get the most convenient deal .Wondering why there is that specific clause that prohibits them to short the shares they own,is it .....cause the management discovered they are champions at this game?This is my perception.
Would be of extreme importance to let the MANGT know how shareholders feel about this #$%$ flop.
Check Crede's track record. QTWW .61 to 2.50s, RMTI, they list their financings, they want long term gains.
The professionals shorted tesla and lost. They will short this and lose too. There's no real substance to your claim that CREDE was dilution that helped the shorts. There's no reason why he would flip around and sell his shares- the only thing he might do is lend out more to be shorted but that doesn't help or hurt covering.
Mershaw, I am not not able to understand what do you call dilution?? Till the news we already down 20 cents which is around 10% of the current pps and you don't agree there is any dilution? The buyers did not take this news as positive or shorts did not like it, either way the price is down no matter what. But the same question still exist, why the shorts are still not leaving it alone? why they are accumulating and know that we don't?
CREDE DOES NOT SHORT THEIR SHARES AFTER INVESTING IN A COMPANY. They are not covering 19 million shares anytime soon cause of this event, please don't exaggerate.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I did not say they would short "AFTER" they invested. I said what if they were part of the 20 million shares already shorted.
why not? don t they have to apply any strategy that makes money for themselves?
Agree. 2balls/Wesley Mcarter is getting out of hand on Crede.


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Nicki Pelfrey's Profile
If you are looking for our shop we are now in business at www.bonanza.com/thetrendytoddler or you can follow us on facebook for all of our updates. www.facebook.com/thetrendytoddlercustomboutique
Just the basics. I am the mother of 3 wonderful children 2 boys and 1 girl. It was when she came along that I realized I would love to make cute little things for her to wear! I am married to the greatest man I know. We are from a small town in Tennessee. I decided to start my own lil homebased business to help with our income & since then I have met and became friends with some wonderful people, I wouldn't trade what I do for anything in the world. It gives me so much more free time to spend with my family & I thank you all for your help and support along the way!
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Do you wonder why Sanbornton taxes have increased so much?
To The Daily Sun,
Are you paying attention to how your Sanbornton town government is spending your tax dollars? Do you wonder why your taxes have increased 85 percent over the past 10 years? Have you considered that your taxes might even double in the next 10 years?
Only 30 percent of registered voters go to the polls in Sanbornton. In order for our form of government to work efficiently everyone should vote and attend Town Meeting. You would be amazed at the potential results.
Please vote on March 10 and help get the uncontrolled spending in Sanbornton under control. These men will work hard to promote good solid stewardship of your tax dollars: Earl Leighton and Craig Weisman on the Budget Committee, and Mitch Lewis on the Board of Selectmen.
John Robinson
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Hotels in Loures, Portugal
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Finally time to resurrect, build, and ship an idea from last year. Going to build an alpha prototype for a developer to work off of, then move on to final design.
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I love the unique interiors and decoration. I spent 1 night in 6 female dorm. The room was too small for those number of beds. There was only space for one person between beds. The staffs were nice but they always stayed in the common room (almost a whole day and night) that made me feel uncomfortable to stay in that room. The facilities are fine and the location is perfect.


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- July 19, 2016
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96.5 KOIT – Better Music for a Better Workday – San Francisco Bay Area. 96.5 KOIT plays commercial free music weekdays at 8am and 5pm. Listeners wake up to Andrew & Charly in the morning with the KOIT alarm clock. Our music sets the perfect mood for the entire workday with Teri King. For the ride home, it's more feel good music with Brent Carey!
App crashes while buffering I love the station but the app crashes before it loads anything. I press the play button to buffer and it crashes. I am on an Alcatel one touch xl
No overseas streaming Overseas streaming is broken
K. O. I. T. So stress-free ❤
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My station The best music ❤❤
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Minor update.


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Casting Crowns kick off their 40-city Come to the Well tour on Sept. 22 in El Paso, Texas, to coincide with the release this month of The Well, an inspirational book by frontman and pastor Mark Hall, and Come to The Well, the group's first new studio project in two years (releasing Oct. 18). The CD single "Courageous" is to be featured in the upcoming Sherwood Pictures film by the same title.
Draw closer to God. Experience the presence of the Holy Spirit every month as you read Charisma magazine. Sign up now to get Charisma for as low as $1 per issue.
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The Morris School District serves the communities of Morristown and Morris Township (pre-K through high school) and Morris Plains (grades 9-12) by providing a supportive and challenging educational environment for a total student population of approximately 5,200. Within the District there is one preschool, three primary schools (k-2), three intermediate schools (3-5), one multiage magnet school (K-5), one middle school (6-8) and one high school (9-12).
Water Analysis Alexander Hamilton
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text: Just what is "Stitchpunk," Anyway?Sarah Hope Williams9/13/09 5:00pm651EditInvite manuallyPromoteDismissUndismissHideGo to permalinkThe term "Stitchpunk" has quickly been attached to Shane Acker's astounding debut film, 9. But where did it originate? Should we take this new genre seriously? We take a look at Acker's influences and attempt to define the Stitchpunk genre.


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2014 Holsteiner x Swiss Warmblood filly offered for sale. This elegant filly is going to excel in anything you put her in. Her dam is sired by the prestigious…$5,500 CAD
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Stunningly handsome and well-bred 2005 dark bay KWPN-NA mare standing 16.1hh. Fabulous uphill paces and active behind, however her big elastic paces…$10,000
Powderhorn, CO


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The war on Santa Claus (and Superman)
The question of the season is "" What will happen to Santa Claus (and Superman) when the North Pole is ice free in the summer?
On our current path, that seems inevitable by the end of the decade. Rear Admiral David Titley, the U.S. Navy's chief oceanographer and director of its climate change task force, "predicts an ice-free Arctic in late summer by 2020."
Yes, there is study in Nature that suggests we aren't past the tipping point — but if you actually read the study, you'll see their survival scenario is all but inconceivable at this point (I'll blog on that soon). Also, they focus their model on sea ice area and not volume, so I'm more inclined to buy Titley's data-driven projection based on three dimensions than the study's model based on two (see "Arctic Death Spiral 2010").
In any case, even if some Arctic sea ice survives 2020, that seems unlikely to encompass the North Pole, as Wieslaw Maslowski of the Naval Postgraduate School explained to me (see Arctic death spiral: Naval Postgrad School's Maslowski "projects ice-free* fall by 2016 (+/- 3 yrs)" and inset below]:
Where will we tell kids that Santa lives? Some sort of North Pole Atlantis? But he can't live under the water, since much of the Arctic will still ice over by December, though a few feet of ice can't support a huge house and a factory and an elf-dormitory. Kids are smarter than that. If only adults were smarter"¦.
Probably the best choice is to ship him off to the South Pole (with Superman's Fortress of Solitude). Indeed the fact that Santa lives in the North Pole is no doubt a residue of our general Northern-hemisphere-centric worldview. How ironic would it be to outsource Santa to the Southern hemisphere. Not the Antarctic Peninsula or West Antarctic ice sheet, of course, since those may not last the century (see "Deep ocean heat is rapidly melting Antarctic ice") "" we don't want to keep moving him! But much of the East Antarctic ice sheet will probably hopefully be around for centuries, and, in any case, Antarctica is a real continent, so even when the ice is gone, Santa can still have his whole operation above water.
Of course, if we ruin the Christmas tradition with our short-sighted inability to develop sane greenhouse gas policies, Santa may just decide all of us are too "naughty" to deserve his largess.
I also wonder what future generations will think about all those old Christmas movies with Santa based at the North Pole. Probably the same thing they think about all those epic stories of brave explorers struggling to get to the North Pole. More tall tales from adults, no doubt "" at least until they are old enough to understand the sad truth.
If we don't change course soon, we won't just transform the climate "" we will transform our culture, from one of abundance to one of scarcity "" and that has profound implications for all of humanity, including our native optimism and our generous, gift-giving nature. 'Tis the season to say: 'Tis time to act!
54 Responses to The war on Santa Claus (and Superman)
Note the recent decrease in Arctic sea ice extent, mostly consistent across the various graphs at
While this is unusual so late in the season, I see that Steve Bloom anticipated it in a recent post: "This year's polar vortex breakdown may give us another late melt month (by moving warm air masses across the ice sheet)…" The current blip might owe more to winds than warmth (i.e., compression of the ice pack rather than outright melting). Yet the temperature distribution will retard ice formation for at least a little longer.
I predict that 2010 will end with a record low Arctic sea ice km2 reading.
Truth is I think santa is a hoax so we shouldn't use that to divert attention from superman.
Google "Shishmaref, AK" to get an understanding of the real impact of "retard ice formation for at least a little longer". It means the end of a culture that survived on the edge of the earth for several thousand years.
Now, they have about ten years before their civilization, on that thin stretch of land, is washed into the Chukchi Sea.
John McCormick
One question I have is when the AO breaks down and the arctic dumps is that going to speed up warming and melting? Also it seems to me I have never seen the arctic dump two years in a row.
Arctic sea ice graph today is worth a look:
Since "ice-free" doesn't truly mean "ice-free", I think Superman will be fine. Not sure about Santa though…his operation needs some serious real estate.
Will be interesting to see how the deniers are going to spin an ice free Arctic ocean sometime before 2020.
Response will likely be: "It's natural"
Well, it hasn't been natural for the approx. last 1 million years or so, and aren't we supposedly headed into an iceage due to their claimed catastrophic global cooling. The irony is delicious. They've dug themselves a deep hole with the global cooling nonsense, and that is great, since the average citizen will be able to spot their BS (when the MSM finally starts reporting on the discrepancy between denier claims and reality, that is…)
BTW, I assume that many deniers reckon the age of the earth to be around 6000 years old, so would that not indicate that the Arctic has never been ice free before?
When my children were small, we read a Little Golden Book called "Santa's Toy Shop" over and over again. It began (and I know this by heart) "Way up north in the land of ice and snow…" Last year, my daughter gave me a used book called "When Santa Turned Green". The copyright is 2007. It's about Santa and, through him, the children of the world ("the real future") realizing that the North Pole is melting, and making changes that reverse it. It's sad to look at this book this year, given what we know about the rate of melting of the Arctic.
This kind of light-hearted question about Santa and Superman, though, gets at more serious questions about loss of cultural diversity. When Arctic peoples can no longer live where and how they have lived for generations, cultures disappear. (Ditto for Pacific Island nations.)
Our family has always enjoyed creating the wonder of Santa for our children, and it saddens me to think that we will lose that piece of our culture. How much worse, though, to have the places that anchor one's entire culture disappear, to know your grandchildren will lose not only some of your stories, but your language! That loss of cultural diversity is a loss for all of us.
Almost the winter solstice and Hudson Bay is still not frozen over– and I'm confident that it will still not be frozen over come next Tuesday (21 December). It will be interesting to see what happens with sea ice over the Bay in the coming years. The Bay covers almost one million km^2, and is located under what is typically an upper-long wave trough.
Looks like the current cold spell in Europe will end shortly after Christmas. In the meantime, those Europeans longing for warm temperatures should be heading to eastern Canada.
To be honest the top figure in the body post is a little misleading–although Joe does clarify matters in the body text, one probably should have had some ice near the northern tip of Greenland and the Canadian archipelago.
Sea Ice Extent: more inter-annual comparisons and a general explanation:
"Yes, there is study in Nature that suggests we aren't past the tipping point [2] — but if you actually read the study, you'll see their survival scenario is all but inconceivable at this point (I'll blog on that soon). Also, they focus their model on sea ice and not volume…"
Very eagerly awaiting your blog on these issues, Joe. And, actually, it would be great if someone would publish a paper addressing precisely those subjects. When reading the new issue of Nature, I was immediately struck by the same concerns you've expressed. I'm also worried that the news media coverage of the new study and associated articles in Nature is leading the general public to believe that everything in the Arctic is okay after all, vis-a-vis both sea ice and polar bears (and other ice-dependent animals). In my efforts to educate the masses about climate change, I interact with non-scientists all the time. And I can attest that scientific nuances are completely lost in translation when the average person sees headlines such as "Arctic icecap safe from runaway melting: study" and "Polar Bears: On Thin Ice? Extinction Can Be Averted, Scientists Say". (Incidentally, although polar bear – brown bear hybridization is a very real concern, the Kazlowski photo published in association with the Comment in Nature about hybridization, and labeled "possible hybrid pictured", is almost certainly just a dirty polar bear. As far as I can tell, there's absolutely no reason whatsoever to suppose it's a hybrid. I'm surprised Nature would publish such a thing.)
Santa always has North Pole, Alaska (which bills itself as Santa's postal address).
Also, it appears that the current extreme negative phase of the AO is aiding in ice export and even melting (ice area is decreasing as well as extent) due to strong winds across the Arctic, as seen in the PIPS ice displacement forecast:
CT ice area:
Also interesting is that the Barents Sea, among other areas, shows stalled ice growth or even a decrease despite the cold just to the south in Europe:
Joe, I'm reminded of this extremely effective Greenpeace video ("unofficial" since it was done by a volunteer) from a couple of years ago. The denialists went absolutely ballistic over it since it's so damned effective. Let's help spread it around again this year.
Re #1: iceman, I was referring to the Greenland ice sheet, but I agree that the sea ice has the same vulnerability.
Re #7: Esop, your comment points out the problem with the lack of abruptness (in human terms) of such climate events. We're talking here about a <50 year transition from an Arctic basin that was still ice-filled at minimum (ice coverage was still lost, but in lower-latitude places like Baffin Bay) to one that is ice-free or nearly so. This is a blink of an eye in climate terms, but it's been talked about so much for so long that denialists have already been inoculated against it. The obvious follow-on changes in climate (basically the manifestations of accelerated warming in the far north) have the same PR problem. It's possible that a consistently sea ice-free summer Arctic could quickly result in much nastier things like a definite transition into the feared Big Drought here in the southwest U.S. and far more frequent blocking events such as the one visited on central Russia last summer, but those will need to be severe indeed for most people (and politicians) to be willing to accept the connection.
Well, Santa Claus could perfectly not be in the North Pole but in Scandinavia or Siberia.
In effect, in an Italian TV News it apperared that Santa ("Babbo Natale" in Italian) resides in Lapponia, Finland. A factory on land, either in Norway, Finland or Russia, make much more sense than a factory on thin ice.
For kids that is very obvious, they are not stupid as most adults!
By the way, the real Santa Claus, Saint Nicholas of Bari, lived in the Bizantine Empire, near the present day Turkey-Syrian border, and his corpse is buried in Bari, Italy, being the Patron saint of the italian city of Bari in South Italy.
Why insist that Santa lives in the North Pole, when Saint Nicholas, the true Santa, lived in Turkey?
When I will have children, I will told them that Santa lives in Italy!
(and struggles with desertification in the Mediterranean Basin, by the way)
He will move to the South Pole, of course — until that melts. Then he might be contemplating another planet.
"…Also, they focus their model on sea ice and not volume…"
Missing a word here — should be: "Also, they focus their model on sea ice EXTENT and not volume."
There's a new story up on Cryosat at BBC.
They have a great map at top showing the ice thickness. That and Steve Bloom suggested Greenpeace video should put the deniers ballistically into orbit.
Can't Superman save the day by reversing time, if we happen too reach a tipping point?
[JR: Sadly, he's tried that three times already. Same result. As time travel buffs know, it is almost impossible for time travel to undo the force of history — or human myopia. And don't forget, the Kryptonians couldn't stop their own planet from being destroyed!
Now if we could harness Superman's limitless supply of energy….]
"we won't just transform the climate — we will transform our culture, from one of abundance to one of scarcity"
Another excellent and pithy messaging winner. Thanks Joe. I'm going to use that phrasing often.
Does anyone know what's happening with BPL's paper on drought? Has it gone through peer review yet? OT, sorry Joe.
Now WUWT has made a virulent attack to the Associated Press:
"Associated Press gone wild: 2010 disaster article is unadulterated trash"
WUWT cannot tollerate the link between record warmth and extreme weather, unlike the way they link cold weather to the alleged "global cooling"!
Re. 22 Peru
Notice how Watts put a pic of Al Gore in there to get the faithful riled up before they even start to read. Dogwhistling at its finest.
J Bowers Re #23
That AP post is by Dr. Ryan Maue. Watts is to be despised, but in this case he didn't make that post.
2010's world gone wild: Quakes, floods, blizzards
Joe, re North Pole musings for future, here is note from amateur non PHD climate activist Danny Bloom over in hot sunny tropical Taiwan, in which he
talks about the "moral imperative of
standing up and fighting against the conditions that have created
global warming and climate change", and
which threaten, in his words, "the future existence of the human
species on Earth":
Danny writes:
"I am not a scientist, so I leave the science of global warming up to
the experts, and I know there are many
sides to these issues, so let the debates go on. But I am concerned that:
1. The status quo regarding the use of coal and oil is morally wrong.
2. "All my bones shake" when I ponder the possible fate of humankind
due to AGW.
3. Will future generations be forced to migrate north to regions
Lawrence C. Smith at UCLA calls
the New North when things
get really bad? The time
to tighten the noose around coal and oil and CO2 emissions is NOW. It
is a moral issue, not just a scientific issue.
4. Who among us will stand up and say "no" to the status quo? And
how will we frame our collective "no"?
LINK: Danny Bloom's Virtual Graduation Speech to the Class of 2099
LINK TO article in Wash Post by William Easterly
"John Lennon vs. Bono: The death of the celebrity activist"
Is anyone out there openly gambling on this one? At least that might begin to make news in a way that makes more sense those who listen to the cc deniers?
In a morbid way, I'd love to see some of the commenters here go on record, each calling which year will be the first iceless year, in the same way that folks at calculated risk have made a sport out of bank failure fridays. Not that I think this is a light matter, but for those of us that have already made significant life changes and continue that slow march, what else can we do in the meantime in the face of this inevitability and collective habits that still work against whatever small individual efforts we each make on a daily basis?
I have a bet with Willis over at WUWT that the sea ice minimum will drop below 100,000 before the end of the melt season in 2014. I hope not to win it, but, based on the volume numbers, think that there is a good change that I will. That is basically an ice free day.
An ice free year is, I think, extremely unlikely to occur this century. As a previous commentator has noted, the Arctic gets no sun for months in winter. The waters would have to have warmed by tens of degrees celsius to avoid any ice forming. Even with Arctic amplification, that is the equivalent of global temperatures rising by close to 10 degrees celsius. If that happens within 90 years, I do not think that those bets are worth the trouble of making …
Silly me. Santa can still live on the rocks of the South Pole if all the ice melts there too. He may be delivering very different and fewer toys though. That thought makes me very sad.
USS Prius: op-ed by Tom Friedman
And when you have time, take a listen at:
(Especially at time stamp 1:53 of the 3 hour press conference)
Re. 24 RB
I'll bet the choice of picture was an editorial decision.
UAH channel 5 is 0.29 degrees warmer than on the same day last year. So much for the powerful La Nina, seems that it can't overpower the greenhouse signal.
Check out the graph, currently goes Straight Up.
2010 should now handily beat 1998.
Esop, there is also a tropical storm in the Central Pacific right now – in December; the only other case occurred during the strongest El Nino on record (and in early December), and they didn't have any storms at all this year until now – so much for La Nina.
#28 (David):
Actually, one would hope that you win it. Based on the science, the Arctic will become ice free pretty soon anyway, unless some magical negative feedback kicks in. The sooner these very visible signs of warming kicks in, the sooner there is hope that something will actually be done to reduce emissions and avoid the real catastrophies that still lie well into the future.
The warm Arctic, cold continents pattern that we are seeing right now is the worst thing that could happen: dramatic warming, but the public believes the globe is cooling, since almost nothing is written on the fact that we are smashing global warm records.
#34, Esop,(Aesop?)
What science, exactly? Are you buying into the extrapolater's Surface Temperature Analysis?
In engineering school, we were taught never ever to make up a number, but only to measure things. And, it the instrument used to measure was inaccurate, get a better one. If none is available, go with what you have and estimate errors. But, there is a thing called Significant Digits, and if the instrument is accurate to such and such a level, do not report data as if the instrument could be more accurate than it is.
"NASA GISS, because they extrapolate Arctic temperatures using the northernmost latitude stations, whereas HadCRUT just omits the region. Since the warming is greatest at the highest latitudes, even NASA GISS's method likely underestimates the warming trend, but by less than HadCRUT underestimates it.
This was confirmed by an independent analysis of HadCRUT's record by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which found "the Met Office's HadCRUT record is at the lower end of likely warming…because HadCRUT is sampling regions that have exhibited less change, on average, than the entire globe over this particular period."
NASA GISS also compared their method to that of HadCRUT. GISS analysis puts 2005 as the hottest year on record, whereas HadCRUT has it at 1998. The GISS study found "there is 95 percent confidence that 2005 was warmer than 1998." More details in Section 7 here:
This is a test, this is only a test. I understand that no dissent is tolerated here, let's see…
"Santa lives on a magical iceberg somewhere near the north pole" would probably suffice for the children.
There is a story on spaceweather.com that says the clear air due to lack of volcanoes is responsible for 0.2C of the warming in the last 50 years. Where does that put 2010 as the warmest year if you put in that trend?
#35 (MOC): check the latest UAH data (that actually cover most of the Arctic). Considering the very strong La Nina, the channel 4 and 5 graphs are not a pretty sight. "No warming since 2010" will very likely be the new meme in about two weeks time.
BTW, ice extent in the Barents sea has actually dropped over the past few days. In mid December. Way above normal temperatures up there.
You are arguing a strawman. I'm not even sure what the point is that you are trying to make– that 1998 is allegedly still the warmest year globally on record? What matters though is the long-term trend…
And don't forget NCDC which also has 2005 in a statistical tie for warmest year with 1998 (worth the read):
Re "But, there is a thing called Significant Digits, and if the instrument is accurate to such and such a level, do not report data as if the instrument could be more accurate than it is"
Please go and lecture Pat Michaels for doing just that in his recent testimony to Congress.
And this is all moot anyways, the Arctic is losing sea ice volume rapidly. Only those in denial about AGW/ACC would ignore that fact, and one which is the topic of this thread.
Not only has the Barents Sea lost ice, the entire Arctic has been loosing ice in recent days, and as measured by ice area, so it isn't just winds blowing the ice together, or only extent would drop:
It will also be interesting to see if the winter of 2010-2011 breaks the recent pattern of ice "recovering" to near average over the winter.
In engineering school, we were taught never ever to make up a number, but only to measure things
Think about it: if you have 10 stations per acre, you still have to interpolate for the areas in between those stations. In general, the more measurements you take, the better the accuracy. The question is: how accurate do you want it? GISS publishes their data to within a hundredth of a degree celcius. If adding stations would not raise accuracy by an appreciable amount, why do the extra work?
Suppose you want to know the average height of the US population. What do you do? Measure every man, woman and child in the US. Or do you state a goal, eg: "I want to know it with an accuracy of ±1 mm", and base your sample size on that requirement? The data for the other US citizens is extrapolated from that sample. Spatial measurement of temperatures works in the same way.
There is also a temporal interpolation going on. Temperature stations do not continuously measure temperature, but every hour or so, or sometimes a few times per day. The average temperature for a day is derived from that limited number of samples.
That is good enough for the desired accuracy. Adding more stations would not change the results in a significant way.
I understand that no dissent is tolerated here, let's see…
Surprise surprise ;-)
#40, Anne Van der Bom,
Interpolation is fine. There is no other way to do many calculations. Do you know the difference between interpolation and extrapolation? Extrapolation is beyond the limits of the data one has. GISS's Surface Temperature Analysis extrapolates from weather stations hundreds of miles away in the Arctic, where they claim the most dramatic warming is occuring. The bright red Arctic on their maps is an artifact of this policy, not actual data at all.
#38, MapleLeaf,
I build no straw men. My point is that thermometers used for weather typically are accurate to one degree, and charting temperatures to the hundredth of a degree is meaningless. Was 1998 the hottest year? GISS said 1934 was, then changed their minds, adjusted temperatures down back then with a nefarious reference to Urban Heat Island, chose 1998, and now says 2010 even though it isn't over yet.
No honorable engineer or scientist would ever alter data after it had already been archived. Get it right the first time, that's the main thing…
#41 MOC: "The bright red Arctic on their maps is an artifact of this policy, not actual data at all."
The actual data is the fact that the Arctic is loosing ICE, open water abounds in the summer, permafrost is melting, food webs are shattering, and more.
"I build no straw men."
You might not build them, but you were making what is called a strawman argument.
"My point is that thermometers used for weather typically are accurate to one degree:
Not sure what thermometer you are using. My measures accurately to 0.1 C.
"Was 1998 the hottest year? GISS said 1934 was, then changed their minds, adjusted temperatures down back then with a nefarious reference to Urban Heat Island, chose 1998, and now says 2010 even though it isn't over yet."
You seem to be confusing global temperatures with those over the USA (<2% of the planet's surface). The warmest year globally in the GISS data was 2005, and that will in all likelihood be beaten by 2010.And he change in USA temperatures (1934 vs. 1998) was not because of the UHI, but b/c of a Y2K bug.
Regardless, There is nothing nefarious about adjusting for the UHI. Would you rather that the scientists did not take it into account and have the records contaminated by artificial warming? Really in so-called skeptics' eyes scientists are damned if they do and damned if they don't. Please read <a href="http://tamino.wordpress.com/2010/10/13/the-great-conspiracy-to-destroy-freedom-sabotage-the-usa-increase-taxes-undermine-the-economy-institute-world-government-based-on-socialism-with-al-gore-as-dictator-and-of-course-drive-us-all/"this.
An interesting that you think that none of your instrument ever had any measurement biases that needed to be corrected for. Get real.
I'm not sure where you are getting your misinformation on climate science from. But please consider going to a reputable site like SkepticalScience or CP.
Again, you seem to be wanting to convince yourself that there is no issue. But the Arctic sea ice volume says there is a very big problem. Ignore it at your grand children's peril.
It is obvious that the Arctic sea ice has agreed to take part in NASAs cunning scheme: it is melting in December.
The question of the season is — What will happen to Santa Claus (and Superman) when the North Pole is ice free in the summer?
Santa doesn't live in North Pole in summer. He migrates to Antarctica.
Didn't really wanna be that anonymous.
And I suspect Superman flies to Antarctica as well in summer. Not enough data. More research is needed.
The Arctic may be at the top of your map, making you think it is an extrapolation, but in reality the Earth is a sphere, making it an interpolation between the stations in Alaska and Nunavut and Siberia.
Also keep in mind that the area above 80 degrees North is less than 1% of the globe, so any error resulting from the interpolation hardly affects global temperatures.
As Esop says, check out this dataset:
Look at the NoPol figures. This satellite data is telling us that the Arctic is warming dramatically: indeed, it is warming more than three times the rate of the planet as a whole.
If that trend continues – and given that we are not going to stop pumping CO2 into the atmosphere at alarming rates any time soon, it will – at some point in the near future there will be no ice left in the Arctic at the end of the melt season.
correction: my bet with Willis is that it will be less than 1 million square kilometre, not 100,000 square kilometres.
Don't you think the GISS checks their Arctic temperature extrapolations against the spotty measurements that do occur and against the satellite data that covers the Arctic? I'm sure they are well aware of the limitations of what they are doing.
Regarding the accuracy of temperature measurements, when you are reporting the results of a synthesis or aggregation of a large number of measurements it is reasonable to report a greater precision than the original measurement. In fact I believe it is a valid statistical technique. It lets you see changes in the overall picture better than if you limit it to the precision of a single instrument. For example if say 100 out of 1000 stations have an unusual temperature trend you're more likely to see it if you're reporting the averages to 100ths of a degree than if you are only reporting to 1 degree. In climate science the change in temperature over time is as important if not more so than the absolute value of the temperature. If you don't like the accuracy then round it off and you'll have the number that you prefer.
GISS said 1934 was the hottest year in the continental US, not the globe as a whole. Big difference there. The CONUS is only about 3% of the surface of the Earth.
I'm not aware of any original raw data being altered. If it has been then I'm sure why and what was done has been well documented. But in order to work with the large quantity of temperature data from different instruments it has to be normalized and known errors have to be accounted for. It's impossible to go back and redo the measurements from 100 years ago but that doesn't mean they are not usable as long as you keep the limitations in mind.
MOC is confusing issues with the dataset, and regional versus global trends. The issue with the 1934 versus 1998 record was for the USA (<2% of the planet's surface), not the global temperatures, and the small correction was required because of a Y2K bug and not the UHI adjustment.
Regardless, there is nothing nefarious about adjusting station temperatures down to take into account the impact of the UHI.
"No honorable engineer or scientist would ever alter data after it had already been archived."
This is nonsense. No respectable engineer would fail to adjust reading for bias (e.g,. instrument error) and sensor drift. I'm sure MOC has no issues with Spencer et al. inferring temperatures in layers of the atmosphere using radiance data. Does he not realize that because Spencer et al. failed to adjust their data and apply the appropriate corrections led them to believe that the planet was cooling when in fact it was warming?
correction: my bet with Willis is that it will be less than 1 million square kilometre, not 100,000 square kilometres.
"What is HE thinking" was my first reaction to your bet. With this corrected value I still think your chance of winning is minute, but at least you have a chance.
I think David will have a pretty good shot at winning the 2014 bet. Keep in mind that the Arctic sea ice is melting in places right now, on December 21st, the shortest day of the year in the NH. Something is very, very wrong up there.
2011 will likely set a record low, and 2012 can easily see something bordering on a collapse.


text:
Netflix Q1 2011: Imaginary Q&A Series 15 comments
Netflix (NFLX) is scheduled to answer select questions submitted by email to firstname.lastname@example.com the afternoon of April 25, 2010. Here's how I imagine a decent call would sound:
OPERATOR: Welcome to the Netflix First Quarter 2011 Earnings Q&A session. Please note your line has been placed on mute, because most of you tend to rant non-stop. We may make forward-looking statements today…. Your first question comes from the line of Righteous Capital.
RIGHTEOUS CAPITAL: Thanks. Netflix announced former CFO's Barry McCarthy's departure December 7th. In November, he cashed in around $40 million – some 230,000 shares, substantially more than he'd sold in any prior month recently or ever. Is knowledge of the impending departure of a public company CFO material information? Should your executives sell Netflix shares while in possession of material nonpublic info?
NETFLIX: I believe the shares were duly sold pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1(c) plan, such that the timing of his relatively large sales was a coincidence.
RIGHTEOUS CAPITAL: Uh huh. Just one more. Your "Reference Guide on our Freedom & Responsibility Culture" urges salaried employees: "You focus on great results rather than on process." Does this mean you focus on meeting earnings and cash flow targets rather than consistent accounting and working capital management processes?
NETFLIX: Come on, it's a well-regarded management tool: set a target, give high-grade people latitude to innovate on the process that attains it.
RIGHTEOUS CAPITAL: So your answer to my question is …
NETFLIX: Next question.
OPERATOR: And your next question comes from the line of Really Skeptical Capital.
REALLY SKEPTICAL CAPITAL: Jim Pyke at Seeking Alpha notes that Netflix ended 2010 with about 20 million customers and has lost about 32.6 million subscribers in total. Moreover, the subscribers lost each year were consistently 66%-75% of Netflix's starting subscribers in each of 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010.[1] Rob Fagen suggests "A great deal of those that leave eventually come back."[2,3] Let "active subscribers" denote only subscribers with a Netflix account duly paid within the trailing 30 days. What percentage of the 32.6 million subscribers who left Netflix were active subscribers at March 31st?
NETFLIX: We're focusing on the current subscriber count as a key metric, which encompasses net churn.
REALLY SKEPTICAL CAPITAL: Well, there are broadly two models of Netflix growth. In what we might call the "Niche Leader" view, Netflix has developed a unique collection of content for a modest price point, has loyal customers, and is becoming increasingly valuable to customers and content providers alike. In what we might call the "Death Spiral" view, Netflix appeals to most customers for less than a few years: Netflix subscribers catch up on select old content, then cancel the service for ages. Rapid subscriber growth would mask churning through an addressable market toward net subscriber losses.
Do you consider whether Netflix subscribers' churn and rejoining more resemble a "Niche Leader" or "Death Spiral" to be material information? Is it appropriate for Netflix employees to sell stock while in possession of material nonpublic info? In light of our nation's securities laws, would you like to reconsider your declination to answer the 32.6 million question now and to break down churn in every future …
OPERATOR: It appears we lost the connection.
NETFLIX: Bummer.
OPERATOR: Your next question comes from the line of Fundamentally Sound Capital.
FUNDAMENTALLY SOUND CAPITAL: You wrote in January, "We think there are two fundamental questions for investors: (a) What will our domestic growth trajectory be over the coming years, given our strategy to maintain modest domestic operating margins so that we can invest aggressively in additional streaming content? (b) How successful will Netflix become outside of the United States?"[4]
You reiterated that view earlier this month: "Those are the two core investor questions … and then the question is 'Well, what's the appropriate discount to apply to those?' That's where the investor judgment comes in. And then once an investor answers those questions for themselves, then they can figure out if they want to be a buyer of our stock at the current price."[5]
NETFLIX: That's right.
FUNDAMENTALLY SOUND CAPITAL: Now in comparison with Netflix's 20-odd million customers, Google's (GOOG) YouTube has 144 million unique visitors in the U.S.[6] Former CEO Eric Schmidt "told Google's board of directors that his estimate of YouTube's worth was somewhere between $600 million and $700 million" five years ago, "according to court records reviewed by CNET."[7]
NETFLIX: Are you asking a question?
FUNDAMENTALLY SOUND CAPITAL: Of course. As you propose we can value Netflix simply based on its growth trajectory, should we consider Netflix worth $700 million – $13/share – if we think Netflix will reach 144 million American users in 5 years and even more abroad, delivering splendidly on what you call the "two fundamental questions for investors"?
NETFLIX: I think that's too simplistic.
FUNDAMENTALLY SOUND CAPITAL: Of course it is. Here's the problem: what you call the "fundamental questions for investors" – and consequently focus your reporting on – disregard earnings, cash flow, pricing power, the nature of subscribers' churn, and your view that "operating margins in an industry are really determined by the number of competitors. So if there's three or four roughly equal-sized competitors at maturity, you'd expect pretty low operating margins. If there's one firm that's the leader in the market, you'd expect higher operating margins. So it really depends upon the competitive climate as opposed to something inherent in the cost structure."[8] Those are your insighftful words. Now would you like to recant your suggestion that Netflix can be valued on the basis of its headline growth without regard to earnings, cash flow, pricing power, the nature of subscribers' churn, or competition?
NETFLIX: Okay, okay. Let's talk about competition.
Amazon (AMZN) looked into licensing every title we offer, and balked at the price. They must not have seen a decent return on investment in what we're doing. Of course they didn't. Investors can we see we didn't generate cash net of our expenditures in the last year, even with the favorable Starz deal.
FUNDAMENTALLY SOUND CAPITAL: Do you think you have a durable algorithm advantage?
NETFLIX: Not really. Desire, intelligence and resources held about constant, more data equals better algorithm. We have leading data now, but Amazon or Google could catch up fast if they nearly match our streaming library and serve millions of users. They're not incompetent at preference algorithms; they could just use more data. That's one reason we hope YouTube won't license our streaming content this year.
FUNDAMENTALLY SOUND CAPITAL: You consider Amazon and Google your main competition?
NETFLIX: Well, let's not forget Charlie Ergen (DISH) with the potential triple-play threat from satellite and now Blockbuster brand, the model of Zediva that could render our streaming investment worthless if it works, or Wal-Mart's Vudu (WMT). Vudu might offer an unlimited streaming plan with around 80% of proceeds divvied up among content providers in proportion to content consumed, like a consignment store that requires no outlay for inventory. They could match our streaming service and price without investing a dime in content. Wal-Mart's a bigger threat to us than Apple (AAPL), because it welcomes thin margins.
Google meanwhile could spend our entire cost of 'net operations to replicate our streaming service on YouTube Live and take our subscribers who'd prefer free to not free. Google could do that to become a behemoth in internet-connected TVs. I doubt they will, but they could wipe out our streaming service easily now with I imagine less than 20% of their cash. That would kill our business.
OPERATOR: Your next question comes from the line of Churn Em & Burn Em Capital.
CHURN EM AND BURN EM ANALYST: I can't believe I'm hearing this.
NETFLIX: Well, look, Salesforce.com (CRM) is priced at a gazillion times earnings. OpenTable (OPEN) is priced near 100x EBITDA and could be displaced by a Google app. Youku (NYSE:YOKU) is priced near 100x revenues. Lululemon (LULU) sells patent-free spandex and is priced near 50x earnings. On one hand, never bet against yoga shoppers. But clearly the market's overheated. Why begrudge me pumping NFLX through valuation-irrelevant growth stories to momentum junkies who never view our owner earnings?
Besides, there's an upshot to this. We'll raise a billion in a smooth secondary offering, operate at weak margins, bulk up to 60 million subscribers, raise another couple bil, and have a streaming library that no competitor will match when they can see we're earning peanuts. Then kapow: we'll hike our monthly price to $14.99 and most customers will stay because there'll be no better deal.
We'll remain a sweet deal. We can even save marriages: we'll find movies rated four stars for both of you. Of course, you'll each need an individual Netflix plan to enable that.
We'll go from about cash flow breakeven, or modestly bleeding money continuously, to boom: an extra $4 billion from that $14.99/month price plan dropping to the pretax line. Investors can capitalize that at $50B. Come on, cheer it with me: eff eye eff tee wy! And the crowd roars, "billion baby!"
CHURN EM AND BURN EM ANALYST: Billion baby!
NETFLIX: Competitors wouldn't fully challenge us on the way up because they could see we weren't generating cash. Then boom: we win.
We'll invest our several billion annual owner earnings in becoming bigger and better to our customers' delight, making it ever harder for anyone to reproduce our offering at our price point. It doesn't matter that we're worth bubkis today and would die a slow death if we never raise another dollar from the capital markets for our streaming content licensing spree.
You see, we have a plan. Now, would all the bears like to back down as fast as my friend Whitney?
CHURN EM AND BURN EM ANALYST: Thanks, that was helpful color.
UNIDENTIFIED CROSSTALK: Dude, what does color mean? I don't know, but analysts say it as if they know what they're talking about. I like blue.
CHURN EM AND BURN EM ANALYST: Just to confirm I'm hearing you right, you're saying Netflix isn't fundamentally worth anything today based on operating around cash flow breakeven in the foreseeable future, and Google could spend a fraction of its cash to replicate your streaming service if it wants to, basically wiping out the prospect that you'll ever earn big money.
NETFLIX: Well, yeah.
CHURN EM AND BURN EM ANALYST: Great, we'll raise our target to $300/share.
OPERATOR: That concludes today's conference call. Please kiss our derrieres after the call to be considered among underwriters in our upcoming secondary offering. Finally, please note that today's call includes entirely imaginary statements that may bear no semblance to reality beyond verifiable facts.
Notes and Disclosure
1. Jim Pyke, "The Netflix Churn Challenge" at Seeking Alpha, February 10, 2011 (here).
2. Rob Fagen, "What Do You Get When You Buy Netflix?" at Seeking Alpha, February 4, 2011 (here).
3. Seeking Alpha contributor Rob Fagen "exercised and sold about 8% of my employee options today" on or about January 27, 2011 (here). Reed Hastings reported selling 5,000/61,500 = 8.1% of a tranche of stock options January 27, 2011 per a Form 4 filing with the SEC accessed via 10kwizard.com.
4. NFLX 8-K filed with the SEC January 26, 2011, accessed via 10kwizard.com.
5. Henry Blodget and Dan Frommer, "Exclusive Interview with Netflix CEO Reed Hastings," Business Insider, April 4, 2011 (here).
6. Tiernan Ray, "Netflix: Google's YouTube A 'Substantial' Threat, Says Wedge," Barron's Tech Trader Daily, April 8, 2011 (here).
7. Greg Sandoval, "Schmidt: We Paid $1 billion premium for YouTube," CNET, October 6, 2009 (here).
8. "Netflix CEO Discusses Q4 2010 Earnings Call Transcript" by Seeking Alpha (here).
Disclosure: The author manages a limited partnership and separate accounts (collectively, "accounts"). Some of the accounts own put options on one or more of NFLX, OPEN and YOKU. The accounts have no other position in stock or stock options of companies mentioned above upon article submission. The author may buy or sell any position at any time. The author may change positions in light of emergent facts or considerations, including new price-to-value estimates of the author's current and prospective investments.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
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S.A. determined this note, including the timely market commentary embedded in "well, look," is not really of interest to investors, as if transcripts of orchestrated conference calls are preferable to more thoughtful discourse. Included in this imaginary Q&A is an observation that what Netflix calls the two fundamental questions for investors to value it are entirely insufficient to value it. Of course S.A. is right: how could that possibly be of interest to investors.
Hi Rob,
I admit that's a pretty good point that YouTube doesn't have to pay much of anything for content. However, have you ever thought about the fact that Netflix is pretty good about not paying for content that they're not reasonably certain will be accretive to earnings? This does two things. First, it makes sure that Netflix will continue to grow and grow profitably. Second, it leaves nothing on the table for a competitor to come in and poach without overspending and running at a loss.
NFLX subscription streaming model is fatally flawed Rob and if NFLX is still around five years from now they won't offer a subscription based streaming service. They've signed up ~53M subs out of a potential ~70M broadband households since 2002, most of which were signed up over the last couple of years and yet they are only left with 20M subs to date. Without local news and sports and all of the current tv programming there is no reason for subs to hang around for more than a couple of years at best. Which is exactly what's been happening and exactly why your pal Reed won't discuss churn after 2011.
Your comment about "signed up ~53M subs out of a potential ~70M" is giving me a pretty clear view into where I think you've made your mistake. Correct me if I'm wrong, but your underlying assumption is that once someone has signed up, used the service and left, that they're gone forever. I have first-hand knowledge that this assumption is false.
When there were fewer subscribers who left each year than who joined ([1] above), theoretically *all* subscribers can be ones who left and returned. I doubt most are. This question -- how many current subscribers were counted among those who formerly left -- is obviously material nonpublic information. It also doesn't seem to be among info that companies would reasonably lobby to withhold from reports for competitive reasons. Netflix insiders sell stock while in possession of this key info that can be readily shared. How is that appropriate?
"How likely is it that subs who walked in 2008, resigned in 2009 and walked again in 2010?"
Well, I added to our put position Monday before the call with NFLX over $250, and even bought May 250 strike around $15, so I'm not a disinterested observer here. With that out of the way:
BTW Rob what you see as shrewd maneuvering in NFLX content acquisition lately I see as desperation trying to find something that will keep subs from walking after they've seen everything they want to see a dozen times. Their subscription model doesn't work if they can't keep subs renewing over the long haul. So far subs have been walking away in droves only masked by new subs taking their place. Look out below when new sub growth hits the wall. You can chalk up the same agenda to Reed's new found focus on international expansion. It's not a sign of strength it's a sign of desperation looking for something to mask the problems he knows are near in the U.S.
It looks like I forgot to add in international subs so the slow down in projected sub growth is not quite as bad as I posted last night but at ~1.3M-~2.25M in Q2 it's still a pretty dramatic fall off. I hear you on the valuation side and realize it's possible that if subs are quiting and then rejoining there might not be a death spiral I just think the consistent loss of ~90%+ of the prior years sub gains is subs getting bored after a year or so and walking.
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