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You could call Amber Spruill a sports nut. If you don't believe me, just ask the sports media graduate student the name of her saving's account. (It's World Cup 2014.) Now in her second semester at Valparaiso University, the Fishers, Ind. native is having a ball talking sports in an academic setting — she says her current sports journalism course is her favorite class ever. Recently, Spruill opened up about what attracted her to Valparaiso University after four years at a Big 10 school and why her master's program is a perfect fit.
What brought you to Valpo?
I had a couple of friends that either did their undergraduate work at Valpo or are in law school here currently, so I've always known about the school. I did my undergraduate work in political science [at the University of Michigan]. After graduation, I worked for a year but didn't like what I was doing. So, I realized my dream was to work in sports media or broadcast journalism, something like that. I did a Google search and [VU's MS in Sports Media] program came up first. It was close to home and really the only specific sports media program in the country that catered to what I wanted to do. It was an easy choice to apply.
What did you do in that gap year between undergrad and grad school?
I worked in customer relations at a medical diagnostic company in Indianapolis. It wasn't challenging, and I hate to sound cliché, but it wasn't fun. I was at a point in my life where I could make a change without sacrificing a whole lot.
How did you know sports media was your calling?
I was raised by a single mother, and I'm an only child. I don't know if it's nature or nurture, but there's really no reason why I should have this unnatural passion for any and all sports. … I've never been particularly good at a sport, but I understand it, and I love the competition of it. My homepage is Espn.com. It's always been a big part of my life, and if I can find a way to make it my job, it would probably be the greatest thing ever.
Is there anyone in the field who has inspired you?
I met Dana Jacobson who is an ESPN anchor. Her show is First Take. She went to Michigan, and I met her this past year right before I started grad school. I told her I was going [to study] sports media … and I told her I wanted to be in research or production at ESPN — that's my pinnacle dream job. She told me to go for it, that there are almost no women in research. I really look up to her because she is surrounded by guys all the time, and she does her job really well.
How is your masters program helping you achieve your goal?
I want to become a jack of all trades. … I think that's what this program focuses on. It has a heavy focus on digital media, which I like because that's the future of sports production and broadcast. Also, Valpo's extracurricular activities are excellent. The student radio station and TV station are really easy to get involved in. For me with my limited experience in either field, they nurture you in a kind of way a lot of employers wouldn't take the time to do. … I worked all last semester with the campus radio station, and I am still doing [sports] highlights and updates for them. I just got involved with the TV station. I'm going to start hosting, which is trial by fire, so we'll see how that goes. [Laughs]
It's probably a lot different from your undergrad experience.
It's so polar opposite. I felt like a really small fish in a giant pond at Michigan. It would have been nice to have this kind of attention as an undergrad, but it wasn't feasibly possible. I like that I can drive to class at Valpo. All of my classes are in one building, which at this time of year is nice [laughs]. … I like the attention that the small campus brings.
Do sports occupy a lot of your time outside of academics?
I try to play as many sports as possible, especially growing up. Like I said, I wasn't particularly good, so I watched a lot of sports sitting on the bench. I joked to my roommate when we upgraded our cable to get the sports package that I could justify it as an academic expense. [Laughs]
Written by Derek Smith


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SYRACUSE, N.Y. -- It's a good morning to celebrate an extremely good ending.
The New York State Assembly passed a version of legislation that would allow patients to use marijuana for medical purposes. The Assembly has passed similar bills before -- but this time the New York State Senate looks to have enough votes to also pass the proposal.
As of now, there are two versions of the bill from two vocal proponents of medical marijuana: Assemblyman Richard Gottfried, D-Manhattan, and Sen. Diane Savino, D-Staten Island. On Tuesday, Gottfried indicated he could accept Savino's more restrictive bill if that's what it takes to win support in the Senate.
Tuesday's debate in the Assembly took three hours; it passed 91-34.
A Republican assemblyman who was ticketed for marijuana possession last year says he's gone above and beyond to research the proposals.
New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio met with Working Families Party leaders on Tuesday to urge them to back Gov. Andrew Cuomo's re-election bid.
U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara has asked state lawmakers to preserve all documents dealing with the Moreland Commission, Cuomo's disbanded investigatory panel meant uncover political corruption and improve the state's weak election laws.
The state's Board of Elections, meanwhile, lifted a $150,000 limit on contributions people and limited liability companies can make to candidates and political groups within a year.
Not only does Donald Trump say he wants to buy the Buffalo Bills -- he says he'll also build a new stadium with his own money.
For an overwhelmingly Democratic state, New York has some close congressional races to watch this season.
Two Republicans debated Tuesday for the NY 21st, the seat held currently by U.S. Rep. Bill Owens, a Democrat, who's decided not to run again.
Confused about Cuomo's remarks last week about whether he would accept the Independence Party's nomination (when in fact he already had)? That's because he signed the offer before deciding whether to accept it.
Some people are upset that Onondaga County wants to build an amphitheater on top of waste beds along Onondaga Lake.
Xerox won a $500 million contract to rework the management system for the state's Medicaid program.
A Colonie lawyer is planning to sue Albany County and state officials to find out whether his license plate data is among the 37 million records law enforcement has captured with scanners.
Syracuse is considering a ban on smoking in city parks.
The Buffalo News' Tom Precious is working on a book about New York and its casinos.
We're No. 1. In yogurt.
The animal kingdom: A wounded black bear is stuck in a tree in an Albany neighborhood; lions and tigers and wolves were seized from a
Sinclairville "sanctuary;" and de Blasio wants to legalize ferrets.
Want to win $1,000 a day for life? You can start trying June 13.
Tweet of the Year
Sheriff confirms 9-yr-old Ronald Williams found safe in Salina neighborhood. A few houses down from his home pic.twitter.com/hrXFLsLVL7— Caitlin Nuclo (@CaitlinNucloNC9) May 27, 2014
Contact Teri Weaver at email@example.com, 315-470-2274 or on Twitter at @TeriKWeaver.

subset: commoncrawl


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On the Origin of Shared Beliefs (and Corporate Culture)
Eric Van den Steen
Harvard Business School - Strategy Unit
August 2005
MIT Sloan Research Paper No. 4553-05
This paper shows why members of an organization often share similar beliefs. I argue that there are two mechanisms. First, when performance depends on making correct decisions, people prefer to work with others who share their beliefs and assumptions, since such others 'will do the right thing'. Second, beliefs will converge over time through shared learning.
While such homogeneity reduces agency problems, it does so at a cost. I show that, from an outsider's perspective, firms invest on average too much in homogeneity. The theory further predicts that homogeneity will be strongest in successful and older firms where employees make important decisions. Within a firm, homogeneity will be stronger among more important employees. Homogeneity will also be path-dependent, making managers more selective on early hires.
Since shared beliefs are an important aspect of corporate culture (Schein 1985, Kotter and Heskett 1992), I finally show that the model matches some observations on corporate culture, such as the influence of a manager on her firm's culture and the persistence of culture in the face of turnover. A fundamental difference from earlier economic theories of corporate culture is that I show that culture, instead of being created for its own good, can be a side-effect of other purposeful actions. As a consequence, there can be too much culture in firms.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 27
Keywords: homogeneity, shared beliefs, differing priors, corporate culture
JEL Classification: D23, D8, L22, M14, M51
Date posted: August 30, 2005
Suggested Citation
Contact Information


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As Tropical Storm Andrea moves north, heavy rain is occurring along the west coast of Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center's 10 p.m. advisory on the storm.
The storm is located about 270 miles west-southwest of Tampa, and about 270 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola, Fla. Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph, and the storm is moving north at 6 mph.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for the West Coast of Florida from Boca Grande to Ochlocknee River. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Flagler Beach, Fla., to Surf City, N.C.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.


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DeWitt, NY -- Onondaga County sheriff's deputies say they were able to quickly find a missing woman Sunday in DeWitt because of Project Lifesaver.
Project Lifesaver was created to track people with dementia-type disorders such as Alzheimer's disease, Down syndrome and autism. Electronic tracking devices help locate the wristbands worn by people who use this service.
At 1:50 p.m. Sunday, DeWitt police received a report of a missing 64-year-old woman who wandered from North Highland Avenue in DeWitt. When officers arrived, they learned the missing woman has been diagnosed with dementia and was a Project Lifesaver participant, Onondaga County Sheriff Kevin Walsh said in a news release.
The sheriff's specially-trained deputies assigned to Project Lifesaver went to help find the missing woman in DeWitt, using Project Lifesaver tracking equipment, the sheriff said in the release.
The missing woman was found in 10 minutes in a garage a block away, the news release said.
"All doors were closed to the garage and the missing person was not visible from the surrounding area," the release said. "Without the Project Lifesaver program the at-risk missing person would not have been located in such a timely manner."
Currently, 86 people are enrolled Onondaga County's Project Lifesaver program, sheriff's Sgt. Jaymes Hurley said in an email. About half the participants have dementia-type disorders, including Alzheimer's; the other half are children with autism or Down syndrome, he said.


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Posted by Editoress on 03/30/07
Horgan-Kobelski and Gould Take First Wins of U.S. MTB SeasonPhotosThe Nova National opened the North American mountain biking season on Friday, with a couple of U.S. Olympic hopefuls showing that they are building their form nicely with the World Cup season less than a month away. Jeremy Horgan-Kobelski (Subaru-Gary Fisher) took a nine second victory over Adam Craig (Giant) to win the men's time trial, while Pan Am champion Georgia Gould (Luna Chix) was 20 seconds in front of team mate Katerina Nash in the women's race. Canada had only one rider in the men's race - Matt Hadley (Rocky Mountain-Haywood) who finished 23rd - and two in the women's - Mical Dyck (Trek) in 8th and Melanie McQuaid (BMC) in 10th.The Nova National has a long history as the season opener for North American mountain biking, stretching back to the early Nineties, when John Tomac and Alison Sydor (Rocky Mountain-Haywood) were racking up wins in the Specialized Cactus Cup. Held at the McDowell Mountain Regional Park, the organizers have access to a network of permanent trails through the sage brush and cacti.The time trial took the riders on a twisty loop that included one longer climb of two minutes and lots of rollers. Of equal difficulty was the dusty gravel on the trails, which could send a rider off into the nasty, barbed Cholla cactus if they weren't careful. It was just as important to be smooth on this course as it was to be fast.Horgan-Kobelski was first off in the men's field, sporting the Number 1 plate of defending champion. It proved to be prophetic, as he powered to a convincing win ahead of Craig with a time of 19:44. Horgan-Kobelski and Craig would prove to be the only two riders to go under 20 minutes. Ross Schnell (Trek) took third with a time of 20:12, followed by two U23 riders - Sam Schultz (Subaru-Gary Fisher) in fourth (20:29) and U23 USA team rider Sam Jurekovic a couple of tenths further back.The Subaru-Gary Fisher rider had something to prove, after a sub-optimum performance at the Pan Am Championships in Argentina a couple of weeks ago (he finished 5th)."Yeah, this makes me pretty happy; I was sick at the Pan Ams and couldn't have the race I wanted. These races, Nova and Sea Otter, build towards the World Cup (in Houffalize, Belgium), so I am happy with where I'm at; it means I have a pretty solid foundation.""I just wanted to race the time trial for fun, for training", Horgan-Kobelski explained. "So I eased into the effort, but I hit the climb as hard as I could. It felt good; I was cornering well, riding it smooth. This was a good test today."Horgan-Kobelski also made an interesting equipment choice - a Gary Fisher 29er with a single chain ring. "The 29er was definitely the right choice. There were a bunch of difficult, drifty corners where you could get into a lot of trouble, but I was able to do some two-wheel drifts. It also smoothed out the rough trail sections, especially on the climb. I did blow one corner, and hit a cactus but, all things considered, it was a clean run."Gould, looking mid-season fit, was the only woman to go under 23 minutes. Despite being a little more tentative than some of the other women on the drop off descent before the climb, Gould rode powerfully."It was a good ride for me; I felt consistent all ride. It was a bit of a funny course - you can only go so fast or you overcook the turns. There were a couple of times that I had to slam on the brakes in the middle of a turn, but overall I felt pretty smooth. I tried to be steady, because even the 'long' climb was only a couple of minutes."The Nova National continues on Saturday with a fat tire criterium downtown in neighbouring Fountain Hills, followed by the cross-country on Sunday.Race Notes- A number of top competitors passed on the time trial, because the Nova National is not a stage race, and only the cross-country awards UCI points (UCI C2). Among those not racing the time trial were a strong Canadian contingent, including Rocky Mountain-Haywood riders Alison Sydor, Max Plaxton and new signing Seamus McGrath. The Canadian Maxxis duo of Geoff Kabush and Mat Toulouse skipped the event, as did Wendy Simms (Kona). Other's missing the event were Subaru-Gary Fisher's Heather Irmiger (under the weather) and Willow Koerber, Trek's Sue Haywood, Kenda's Michael Broderick and Mary McConneloug, and GT's Todd WellsMen1. Jeremy Horgan-Kobelski (Trek) 19:442. Adam Craig (Giant) 19:533. Ross Schnell (Trek), 20:124. Sam Schultz (Subaru Gary Fisher), 20:295. Sam Jurekovic (USA U23), s.t.6. Jeremiah Bishop (Subaru Gary Fisher), 20:357. Travis Brown (Trek) 20:3923. Matt Hadley (Rocky Mountain Haywood), 21:54Women1. Georgia Gould (Luna Chix), 22:472. Katerina Nash (Luna Chix), 23:073. Jenna Zander (Cannondale), 23:364. Kelli Emmit (Giant) 23:395. Jennifer Smith (Trek), 23:408. Mical Dyck (Trek) 24:1410. Melanie McQuaid (BMC) 24:14


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InnerCity Struggle is moving! We are excited to announce that we have recently purchased a building in Boyle Heights for InnerCity Struggle's permanent home! In the meantime, we will be moving to a temporary location at the former East Los Angeles Community Corporation office at 530 South Boyle Avenue, Los Angeles, CA 90033 while our future home is being renovated to serve as an inter-generational community organizing center.
About Us
Since 1994, InnerCity Struggle has worked with youth, families and community residents to promote safe, healthy and non-violent communities in the Eastside.
We organize youth and families in Boyle Heights, unincorporated East Los Angeles, El Sereno and Lincoln Heights to work together for social and educational justice. InnerCity Struggle provides positive after-school programs for students to become involved in supporting our schools to succeed.
We have empowered students to reach their family's dream of college. The work of InnerCity Struggle demonstrates that youth and parents working together are a powerful force for improving their communities and making real change.
InnerCity Struggle has also educated and empowered thousands of Eastside voters to be heard at the ballot box on critical issues impacting our communities.
InnerCity Struggle Convenes Parents, Officials, Community Members to Discuss Community Schools
September 2, 2015
Boyle Heights resident Raul Ruiz envisions a community school where his son, who is autistic, could access sp...
ICS Student Leader Eduardo Pacheco Recognized as Sargent Shriver Youth Warrior Against Poverty
August 13, 2015
Most high school students usually spend their lunch time hanging out with friends. For Eduardo Pacheco, it...
ICS' 12th Annual Awards Dinner Honors 21 Years of Organizing for Change
August 6, 2015
ICS' 12th annual awards dinner will honor Assemblyman Jimmy Gomez (D-Los Angeles) for his leadership, an...
JOB ANNOUNCEMENT: Civic Engagement Canvassers
May 7, 2015 to
In 1994, InnerCity Struggle (ICS) became an independent center to meet the Eastside's l...
JOB ANNOUNCEMENT: Parent Organizer
January 20, 2015 to
Application Deadline: January 23, 2015 In 1994, InnerCity Struggle (ICS) became an independent center to ...
JOB ANNOUNCEMENT: Communications Director
January 6, 2015 to
ICS is seeking a highly proactive, energetic and experienced individual who is deeply passionate about s...


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9/27 Wood to get 200 and that's it
Travis Wood started Friday night against the Cardinals but was done after one inning. The lefty was one inning shy of 200, and will be allowed to reach that mark.
"[Being shut down] is just to protect him and get his milestone, the 200 innings," Dale Sveum said. "We made that decision and he was OK with it. It's trying to protect him. There's no need to push him any further."
There have been no red flags regarding Wood's health.
"No, it's just a lot of innings, pitches," Sveum said. "He's thrown about 100 pitches every start. He can get that milestone out of the way and he doesn't have to prove anything else."
Did Wood fight Sveum and the Cubs management on this?
"No," Sveum said.
The Cardinals batted around against Wood in the first, and tallied on a two-run double by Yadier Molina and a RBI single by Jon Jay.
— Carrie Muskat
6 Comments
Well I guess the bullpen will be extra busy tonight! Not exactly a hopeful situation! We shall see —– Go Cubs!
This stinks! You're playing your arch rival who needs wins to advance towards the World Series and your " horse " is going to sit down after one inning? So personal achievements are more important than team accomplishments. Maybe the Cards will reciprocate someday, but it won't be soon because that organization knows and wants to win ballgames. Good thing I'm not the Commissioner. Someone would be getting a call in the front office and the language would be adult and to the point. After the first inning, why don't we all walk off the field, send the white sheet up the flagpole and take the first train out of town, eh? What a bunch of baloney.
I hate the Cubs, but loved them and look at that. Thanks Carrie


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When Nicky Anosike left Staten Island, St. Peter's High School and two Jaques Awards behind for Knoxville, Tenn. and coach Pat Summitt four years ago, she dreamed of an NCAA Championship.
She fulfilled that dream in 2007.
So last night, when Anosike and her Lady Vol teammates defeated Stanford 64-48 in the 2008 NCAA Women's Basketball National Championship, was just more icing on an already sweet career.
Anosike closed out her college career with 12 points, pulled down eight rebounds and came away with six steals -- the second most in championship game history -- in 29 minutes as Tennessee became the only school to win back-to-back NCAA Tournament titles twice.
The Lady Vols became the first repeat champs since Connecticut won three straight from 2002-04.
"I just know, for me, my mind-set coming into the game, I wasn't going home without a championship," said Anosike, who was named to the All-Tournament Team for a second-straight year. "If we lost, I was going to live here, because I wasn't going back home. No one was going to deny me a national championship. And I did whatever I needed to do to make sure that we won."
It was Anosike's defense -- especially in the first half -- that helped harass Stanford's leading scorer, Candice Wiggins, into 6-for-16 shooting and just 14 points.
Wiggins, an All-America selection, entered the game averaging 27. 4 points per game in the tourney and finished a remarkable run through the bracket -- 151 points over the six games -- the fourth-best total in tournament history.
The Cardinal, though, turned it over 25 times in the game and 14 in the first half, where all six of Anosike's thefts came.
"Nicky did a great job. She's one of our best defensive players," said Tennessee guard Shannon Bobbit, another New York City product out of Murry Bergtraum HS, who scored 13 points. "And like she said, nothing was going to stop her. Nothing was going to prevent her from winning this national title. And she showed it tonight. And got after it and got six steals. I'm proud of her."
Trailing by one early, Tennessee used a 13-4 run to take a 17-9 lead midway through the half. Bobbit hit two 3-pointers and made a nifty layup to cap the spurt. The teams traded baskets before two free throws by Bobbit gave the Lady Vols a 35-25 lead -- their biggest of the half.
"I think our defense takes a lot of people out of their sets when we decide to play," said Anosike. "And (last night) we had no choice but to decide to play defense. So we took them out of everything they wanted to do and they just didn't know what to do against our defense."
Injured left shoulder and all, Candace Parker scored 17 points and grabbed nine rebounds and was named the tournament's Most Outstanding Player for the second year in a row, joining an elite group: Connecticut's Diana Taurasi (2003-04), Tennessee's Chamique Holdsclaw (1997-98), and Southern Cal's Cheryl Miller (1983-84).
"It's been an emotional last three days, obviously, just rehabbing my shoulder," Parker said, "but it was all worth it to win an eighth national championship."
The two classmates shared more than a few moments together in the last two title runs.
"I think Candace has a lot of respect for me because she knows I want the best for her," said Anosike. "We just try to inspire each other throughout the game and I think it's worked."
Coach Pat Summitt, who won her eighth National Championship, two shy of John Wooden's record 10-career men's titles, was certainly not at a loss for words when speaking of her senior center.
"I think this game inspired Nicky. She's one of the most fierce competitors I've ever coached," said Summitt. "She works hard on every possession. She inspires this team. And she's the one that gets them together. She's the one that comes up with our plan of attack a lot. And I know they meet a lot. And she's the one that's always calling the meetings and really holding people accountable.
"That's what she does. I don't care if it's Alexis or Candace. If she thinks we're jump shooting too much, she's going to express it," the coach said. "I just have so much respect for Nicky because of just the commitment she makes every day to getting better and she is one of the most fierce competitors, as I said, that I've ever coached.
"She's going to be very successful in life because that's who she is."


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(Since this is an ongoing project it probably fits better in this thread. The content of this post is the same as my post in the tinker thread.)
When I moved into my house I built a 55 gallon tank into the wall between the living room and kitchen, and up to last year it has survived on just an internal Fluval filter. Stock lights, basic internal heater, fake plants.
The fish were doing just fine, but then I discovered the joy of growing plants!
Plants need three things to thrive: light, CO2, and nutrients. So last year I upgraded the lighting from 30W crap bulbs to a beautiful 3x54W T-5HO aluminum canopy. It has three 4ft bulbs (all different light spectrums) on two circuits. I didn't want ugly mechanical timers so I bought some electronics timers that normally replace your light switch and modified the canopy so they hid inside. Now the blue-ish lights are on from 11am-9pm, and the daylight bulb is on for a 12pm-2pm daylight burst. I can even set them to be different every day if I want. Woohoo!
I started dosing fertilizers but that's boring (until I construct an automatic fert-doser using a peristaltic pump!)
I also starting using DIY CO2 which is basically a brewery that mixes yeast, sugar and water in a sealed container with an outlet for the generated CO2 to be directed into the tank. This worked but had a low bubble count. I could add more yeast to the mixture and get more bubbles, but then I would have to redo it more often (like every week) and that was getting annoying. I built my own giant system using two 2L bottles but was still not happy with having to redo it so often.
So I went to Air Liquide and leased myself a 20lb beverage-grade aluminum CO2 tank, and bought a regulator/solenoid/metering-valve setup that I can adjust from something tiny like 1 bubble per minute all the way up to kill-all-the-fish-bubble-explosion (not gonna test that).
Now THIS year I have just recently purchased an external canister filter to replace the internal filter. I think it will be much nicer to see nothing in the tank but plants and fishies. Gotta get that internal heater out too though! So tonight I'm looking for external heaters that I can plumb into the output of my canister filter. While I'm at it I'm going to get a UV sterilizer and I will make a "DIY CO2 reactor" and have alllllll that stuff moved into the stairwell that is out-of-sight from both the rooms (by running the external hoses through the walls studs!).
It's a huge (but fun) money pit of a hobby!
And I will post some pictures once I start the new additions!


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The first time Brian M. Henry went into the woods to photograph birds, it did not seem like the sort of thing that he would do again.
"I was bored to tears," the 58-year-old Johnstown resident said.
However, Henry said, over time it became something he enjoyed. He has had nearly 650 photos published, in magazines such as Time and Adirondack Life.
Article Photos
Brian M. Henry, center, looks at a piece of camera equipment belonging to his friend Warren Greene at Henry's home in Johnstown on Thursday. Henry has had nearly 650 bird photos published in a variety of magazines.
The Leader-Herald/Rodney?Minor
A Bobolink is shown at Rogers Family?Orchards in Johnstown.
Photo courtesy of Brian M. Henry
A Blue Jay is shown at Rogers Family?Orchards in Johnstown.
Photo courtesy of Brian M. Henry
"When the bird comes in, from that moment on, your mind is not on anything else," he said, as an explanation for why he started enjoying the hobby more.
Henry grew up in Gloversville, graduating with the Gloversville High School class of 1970.
While growing up in Gloversville, one of his good friends was Warren Greene, who has had numerous wildlife photos published.
Greene said he and Henry were fishing buddies when they were younger. Then one day in 1983, Greene took Henry on that fateful bird photographing trip.
"Brian has his own style. He does a good job," Greene said. "[His success] has been absolutely terrific."
Henry is quick to credit Greene for helping him succeed.
"Without [Greene's] constant encouragement, always-upbeat attitude, and his help lugging equipment over the years, the number of my photos published to date would be zero," Henry said in an e-mail.
For Henry, bird photography is interesting for a number of reasons.
Perhaps foremost, the sheer diversity of bird species and the different looks they present keep him coming back for more, he said.
As he points out, there about 10,000 different species of birds in the world. In his opinion, Henry said, he has managed to get images that are "publish-quality" of just 100 of them in about three decades. "Bird photography isn't easy," he said.
For all the photos he has taken that he has kept, there are hundreds more pictures that have been thrown away, he said.
As an example, he talked about a photo he got of an owl swooping down to grab its prey. When the owl swooped down from the sky toward the ground, he started shooting.
Henry got a photo of one of the owl's wings and another - which would later be published - of the owl about to grasp its prey. As for the others, more than a dozen photos, they were no good, he said. The owl had moved too fast and gotten out of the shot.
"It's been a great journey over the years, but a journey of far more tossed than retained photos," Henry said in an e-mail. "Such is bird photography."
He also can stay within the Adirondack region for his work, or he can travel.
"The Adirondacks, to me, are so beautiful," Henry said.
Henry noted about half of his published photos have been taken at one place - Rogers Family Orchards in Johnstown.
"They have embraced Warren and me from day one," Henry said.
Todd Rogers said he has known Greene for a long time, and it has never been a problem having them at the orchard getting photos of all the birds.
"Those two guys are great guys," Rogers said.
An added bonus is that bird photography can be done at different times of the year. From mid-May to mid-August, there are many different bird species around to get photos of, he said. However, while many bird species migrate south from here, others migrate here during the winter, such as the snowy owl. Not too mention the types of birds that do not migrate.
Photography also connects him with the hunting trips his dad used to take him on, Henry said. Photography actually is similar to hunting, he said, instead of using a gun, he has a camera.
Of course, bird photography is not always easy. Henry said the main problem tends to be that birds are generally uncooperative when it comes time for them to get their picture taken.
There also is a difference between birds. While chickadees are generally more tame than hawks, certain types of chickadees are more willing to go close to people and have their pictures taken than others.
Henry, who has cerebral palsy, has trouble doing flight photography because his hands shake a little too much. However, his tripod that attaches to the camera allows him to get the shots he needs.
While he has started using digital cameras, he and Greene both have a certain distaste for it. The idea of someone taking a photo and then using a computer to significantly alter the image afterward, leaves both aghast.
Henry said it may be a product of his age. It might also have to do with his love of hockey, a sport he embraced while attending St. Lawrence University years ago.
In hockey, he said, if a shot is too wide of the goal, it's just too wide. There is no repeat chance given to hit it.
"You either got the shot or you didn't," Henry said.


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It is no surprise that FOX's "New Girl" has become such a hit on television. With its fun storyline, quirky one-liners, and handsome young cast, it has infiltrated the hearts of many—and no one seems to be complaining! Jess, Winston and Nick are all amazing gems, but we have to give the funny bone award to Schmidt (if there were such a thing, of course). He gets us silent giggling, which ultimately means he takes our breath away. So, in honor of all the glory that is laughter, here are the 23 best Schmidt-isms of 2012 (Although, we don't believe any of them will top September 2011's "You've got some Schmidt on your face". Even our dads quote that one.).
"Guess whose personalized condoms just arrived!" – Season 1, Episode 10
"Damn it! I can't find my driving moccasins anywhere!" – Season 1, Episode 10
"Coincidentally, I'm wearing my lap dance pants!" – Season 1, Episode 10
"Can someone please get my towel? It's in my room next to my Irish walking cape!" – Season 1, Episode 11
"What if I ate my own hair and pooped out a wig?" – Season 1, Episode 12
"This is a horrible neighborhood. There are youths everywhere!" – Season 1, Episode 13
"You know where that puts you in six months? Watching It's Complicated on DVD while you cradle your newborn baby to sleep. And guess what! It's not complicated. It's about a bunch of rich white people who are remodeling their kitchen." – Season 1, Episode 13
"'Outliers' — you should read it. Malcolm Gladwell. It's one of my desert island books, along with Machiavelli's 'The Prince,' 'Freak' by John Leguizamo, any of the scripts from the first season of 'Vampire Diaries,' a little 'Phantom Tollbooth…'" – Season 1, Episode 13
"I'm like a sexual snowflake. Each night with me is a unique experience." – Season 1, Episode 14
"I'm gonna have to run all the way home, and I have my slipperiest loafers on!" – Season 1, Episode 16
"You're listening to the radio and writing with a pen? What decade are we in?" – Season 1, Episode 20
"Would you line up around the corner if the iPhone was called 'the slippery germ brick'?" – Season 1, Episode 20
"An Indian-Jewish baby? Who wouldn't want that? Think about the bone structure!" – Season 1, Episode 21
"Old people freak me out. With their hands and their legs. They're like the people version of pleated pants." – Season 1, Episode 23
"Backsliding is what happens after a clean break. When you freak out and you go crawling back and you make everything messy and horrible." – Season 1, Episode 23
"Can you believe the zoo wouldn't let me borrow their white tiger? I mean, the nerve! Philip Seymour Hoffman is going to be sitting at the back of the party thinking, 'Look at that guy. He couldn't even get a big cat.'" – Season 2, Episode 1
"Winston, your sister got so hot! I'm gonna have to Shaq attack her! May I have your blessing? Because I'm gonna be like dribbling up the court, illegal sexual foul – boom! Illegal use of hands – boom!" –Season 2, Episode 2
"Winston, you've been staring at this girl for 5 minutes. Please tell me you're checking her out, otherwise you're a serial killer. Which would explain a lot." – Season 2, Episode 3
"If you track my trajectory I'm gonna live to be 123 years old. Hello, Robot Sex." – Season 2, Episode 4
"Without sex, she's not your girlfriend. She's a friend you buy meals for." – Season 2, Episode 6
"We sold our qualms. We used the profits to by perfect bodies." – Season 2, Episode 7
"There's a fine line between sexual harassment and something awesome." – Season 2, Episode 7
"You are a gynecologist and a lesbian. This makes you a vagenius." – Season 2, Episode 9
"I can't believe I have to have feelings to have good sex. I thought I'd be dead before that happened." – Season 2, Episode 9
"I don't celebrate Christmas. Or, as I like to call it, 'White Anglo Saxon Winter Privilege Night'." – Season 2, Episode 11
SO Note: Meredith Schneider is a Contributing Editor and pop culture diva. Follow her @MerelyGrace.


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The teams are different and the circumstances have changed, but oddsmakers expect more of the same for Peyton Manning against the Baltimore Ravens.
Manning brings plenty of success against Baltimore into this weekend's Broncos-Ravens clash in Denver. That history contributes to a 9-point advantage for the Broncos in the AFC divisional round.
Manning is 9-2 all-time against Baltimore, including nine straight wins and a 2-0 postseason record. He has thrown for 2,893 yards with 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions in those 11 games.
Manning leads a balanced Broncos team that is better balanced but lighter on playmakers than most of his classic Indianapolis Colts' teams. The Ravens, meanwhile, have lost a step on defense but compensated with an explosive offense behind quarterback Joe Flacco.
Here's a look at Manning's performances in 11 career games vs. Baltimore:
Dec. 16, 2012: Manning was 17 of 28 for a season-low 204 yards, but the Ravens were stymied by the Broncos' defense in a 34-17 loss earlier this season. The loss was one of three consecutive setbacks for the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium.
Jan. 16, 2010: Manning and the Colts dominated the Ravens in the Wild Card round of the AFC playoffs. Manning threw two touchdowns in the final two minutes of the first half, all but slamming the door on a 20-3 win.
Nov. 22, 2009: Manning completed 22 of 31 passes for 299 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions in a 17-15 Colts' win. Baltimore was held to just five Billy Cundiff field goals as the Colts improved to a perfect 10-0.
Oct. 12, 2008: Manning threw three touchdown passes in the first half and the Colts cruised to a 31-3 win in Week 5. It was a key game early for both teams as the Colts won for the first time at newly built Lucas Oil Stadium.
Dec. 9, 2007: Only two garbage-time touchdowns saved face for the Ravens in a 44-20 Colts win. Manning was an efficient 13 of 17 for 249 yards and four touchdowns.
Jan. 13, 2007: In the divisional round of the AFC playoffs, Manning managed just 170 yards on 15 of 30 passing in a 15-6 Colts' win. But Adam Vinatieri booted five field goals as the Colts continued a march to the Super Bowl XLI title.
Sept. 11, 2005: Manning threw for two second-half touchdowns and the Colts easily topped the Ravens 24-7 at M&T Bank Stadium. Indianapolis led just 3-0 at the half before Manning threw strikes to Marvin Harrison and Ben Utecht as part of a 254-yard, 2-touchdown performance.
Dec. 19, 2004: Manning was an efficient 20 of 33 for 249 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions in a 20-10 road win. The Indianapolis win was a near fatal blow to the Ravens' playoff chances. Baltimore, 8-5 entering that game, finished 9-7 and missed the playoffs.
Oct. 13, 2002: Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt saved the day with a last-minute field goal to lift Indianapolis to a 22-20 win. The Ravens were playing without linebacker Ray Lewis -- which they did 10 times this season -- for the first time in 64 games.
Dec. 2, 2001: Manning did his share completing 27 of 48 passes for 310 yards, 2 TDs and an INT, but the Ravens overcame a fourth-quarter deficit with 13 unanswered points in a 39-27 win.
Nov. 29, 1998: In the midst of a 3-13 rookie season, Manning threw for a season-high 357 yards in a 38-31 loss to the Ravens. Baltimore coach Jim Harbaugh's brother, John, led the way for Baltimore.


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MUSKEGON, MI – Holiday music played in the background as Beth Bessinger of Muskegon decorated her Christmas tree, carefully hanging small, colored bulbs from the branches.
Around her, others also decorated trees, stringing lights around garlands and setting up some of the other displays that will be part of the museum's annual holiday event.
They were part of a number of volunteers who stopped by the Muskegon Museum of Art on Nov. 15 to help set up for the museum's ninth annual Festival of Trees, which will run from Nov. 21 to Dec. 1.
Each year, the Festival of Trees draws plenty of visitors, but it also attracts many volunteers as well, said Judith Hayner, the executive director of the museum.
"It's such a volunteer-driven event," she said, noting that about 200 people will have donated their time to making the event a success. That figure includes those who decorate the galleries, she said, as well as those who work the festivals' various events and the festival's organizers.
"It's emotional for me when I look around and I see all these people giving all of their time for us," Hayner said as she looked around the room. "I mean, it's amazing."
Planning starts well in advance of the festival, said event co-chair Shawn Lazarock. This year's theme, "Candy Town," was agreed on last year, she said, and the committee began building this year's decorations a few weeks ago.
Outdoor decorating began the weekend before the designers – typically locals with a penchant for decorating – arrived to put their trees together on Nov. 15 and 16, she said. Typically, she and her co-chairperson, Tim Duba, put in about 60 hours each to organize the event and take off from work so they can focus on the festival, Lazarock said.
"It's fun. It's something to give back. It's just a wonderful group of people," said Lazarock, who has co-chaired the event with Duba for the past five years.
Like Lazarock and Duba, many of the volunteers and tree decorators come back each year.
"I enjoy design and decorating and I enjoy being in fellowship with people that enjoy it, too," said volunteer Deb Moon, who along with Skeeter Parkerhouse was in charge of coordinating the tree designers.
"You kind of just get hooked on and it's just part of your season. This to me, it is the start of the season, beginning this beautiful festival," she said.
But the festival also continues to attract new volunteers, like Bessinger, who had attended the festival many years before participating.
"This is my first year doing it and I'm hooked already. I'm coming back," she said. Bessinger said she liked being able to help the museum while exercising her creativity.
Festival of Trees information
This year's Festival of Trees will take place daily from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. and from noon to 5 p.m. on Sundays from Nov. 21 to Dec. 1. The museum, however, will be closed on Thanksgiving, Nov. 28.
Admission is $7 per adult, $3 for children 3 to 17 years old and $5 for MMA members. Children younger than 3 years old are free. All-festival passes are also available for $14 per person.
In addition to the Christmas tree displays, wreaths and other décor, the festival will also include several other events and attractions. They are:
- Party in the Pines – 6 p.m. on Nov. 22. The event will serve as the festival's opening party and will include live music by the Vincent Hayes Project, hors d'oeuvres and a cash bar. Tickets are $30 in advance, $35 for MMA members and $25 at the door.
- Festival Senior Day – 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. on Nov. 26. The day, planned especially for senior citizens, will include special entertainment as well as free coffee and cookies. Reservations for groups of six or more people can be made by calling (231) 720-2571.
- Family Day – 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. on Nov. 27. Children 17 years old and under will receive free admission. Visitors will also be able to participate in a holiday scavenger hunt and win a prize.
- Teddy Bear Breakfast – 8:30 a.m. to 10 a.m. on Nov. 30. Geared primarily towards children between 3 and 8 years old, the Teddy Bear Breakfast is one the festival's most popular events and often sells out, so the museum recommends buying tickets in advance. Tickets are $10 per adult and $7 per child 3 to 17 years old.
- Deck the Halls: Holiday Décor for Your Home with J. Schwanke – 2 to 4 p.m. on Dec. 1. Nationally recognized floral designer and TV personality J. Schwanke of ubloom.com will demonstrate ways to add personalized and unique custom touches to your holiday home décor. Festive refreshements will be provided. Because seating is limited, advance tickets are recommended. Tickets are $20 in advance, $15 for MMA members and $25 at the door.
For more information about the Festival of Trees, visit www.muskegonartmusem.org or call (231) 720-2570.
Lisha Arino covers arts and entertainment, as well as other topics, as needed, for MLive/Muskegon Chronicle. Email her at firstname.lastname@example.com or follow her on Facebook, Twitter or Google+.


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Dr. Richard Williams specializes in hematology / oncology in Concord, North Carolina.
Dr. Richard Williams has been compared 142 times. Details of Dr. Williams' 28 years experience as an MD, his 2 hospital affiliations and education at University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences are available on your free doctor report.
Primary Location for Dr. Williams
200 Medical Park Dr
Suite 550
Concord, NC 28025
Patient Ratings and Reviews
Dr. Richard Williams has an average rating of 5 stars (out of 5) with a rating of Excellent based on 2 reviews.
Have you visited Dr. Richard Williams? Rate you experience below.
Board Certification, Specialty and Expertise
Dr. Richard Williams has been identified as specializing in Hematology / Oncology.
Accepted Insurance
Insurance plans and networks accepted by a doctor are not necessarily universal across all locations at which the doctor practices. This can be affected by many factors such as different group practices, hospital affiliations and working arrangements at those locations. Checking that the doctor you are visiting and the facility they are at are in-network providers for your insurance plan can save you money and headaches later from surprise medical bills.
Dr. Richard Williams accepts the following plan at 200 Medical Park Dr, Concord, NC
- Multiplan
Hospital Affiliation
A hospital affiliation covers any doctor who has an affiliation, association or admitting privilege with a hospital. A doctor's particular affiliation to a specific hospital can translate to the overall quality of that provider.
Dr. Williams is affiliated with 2 hospitals:
920 Church St N
Concord, North Carolina
Dr. Williams attended medical school at University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences College of Medicine and graduated in 1988 having 28 years experience.
While there is no proven correlation between the quality of one's educational institution and the quality of one's professional competence, it is often an indicator. Medical schools have various levels of selectivity (some are harder to get into than others), and both the quality of their clinical training and level of research are measured. Additional medical training in both residency and fellowships and the facilities they are conducted at also provide a history of the doctors' level of training and experience.
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text:
Don't Let Vendor Exclusivity Provisions Sneak Up on You
Just like any business, credit unions can find themselves trapped by these seemingly harmless provisions in legal contracts. While you can avoid them, it takes vigilance.
If you've ever been involved in contract negotiations, you know that they are often carried out under tight deadlines. Then, like most legal documents, the contracts are put on a shelf where no one will venture into their murky waters of legalese. However, this can lead to some very unpleasant surprises-especially true for those exclusivity provisions that lie in wait within the contracts.
Let's look at an example. Imagine that you have spent months searching for a provider of a particular service and finally find one. You've signed an agreement for this service with Vendor A and have proudly announced it in a press release. Then the surprise comes. You receive a telephone call from your representative at Vendor B. The rep informs you that he read about your agreement with Vendor A, and that your agreement with his organization stipulates that Vendor B is your exclusive provider of this type of service during the term of your agreement-which, by the way, has three more years to run.
This kind of contractual-exclusivity provision is very common, and it needs to be identified and understood immediately. Unfortunately, contractual-exclusivity provisions can be drafted in a number of ways, and there is no set language that invariably identifies them. The only sure way of discovering them is through a painstakingly careful reading of your contracts. A third-party legal review can also be extremely beneficial.
In all your vendor agreements, be on the lookout for phrases like "exclusive provider" or "sole provider" of particular products or services for certain periods of time. Often they come with automatic extensions as well. This is called a requirements contract, and it essentially has the same effect as an exclusive-provider contract.
In general, businesses should be free to contract with whomever they want, and exclusivity provisions represent a significant restraint on that freedom. By the same token, the exclusivity provision gives the party receiving the benefit of exclusivity (the vendor) something of value, which may be the entire basis for the original agreement.
It is also important to make sure that the products and services covered by the exclusivity provision are crystal clear. In a vendor relationship, this means expressly identifying the products and services to be utilized. This can be more difficult than it seems at first, especially with services that may overlap other similar services that are not intended to be covered by the grant of exclusivity. It is also not advisable to tie the scope of the exclusivity provision to the types of services provided by the vendor. That's because the vendor might develop new services or acquire another business and expand the scope of this provision to the detriment of the other party.
The bottom line is that you need to comb through your agreements carefully and identify any exclusivity provisions they may contain. Of course, legal language isn't the most fascinating verbiage to study, but the diligence always pays off. Basically, you need to make sure you understand how these exclusivity provisions will limit what you can do while they are in effect. Just as important, this information needs to be shared within your organization so that people know how these limitations affect their responsibilities.
So let's return to our example. You are now on the horns of a serious dilemma. An existing vendor (Vendor B) is claiming that it has an exclusive-provider agreement with you. However, you have just negotiated, signed and announced a new agreement with Vendor A that apparently conflicts with Vendor B's agreement. That's a problem with no easy solution.
Depending on how the language in your agreement with Vendor B is written, you may already be in breach of contract by entering into the new agreement with Vendor A. You may also be considering backing out of your arrangement with Vendor A to avoid additional liability or to mitigate your damages. However, as you consider this course of action, you wonder if that would cause you to breach any of the provisions of your new agreement with Vendor A. What to do? Answer: Don't get yourself in this situation in the first place.
Exclusivity provisions can really become a trap for the unwary. Do the work it takes to make sure you're not one of them, and seek out organizations that will assuredly work in your best interest and do not concern themselves with excluding the competition. These organizations simply seek to provide complimentary products or services that will ultimately benefit your credit union.


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Have you been shunning financial risk in your investing since the stock market crisis of five years ago?
Am I sticking with stocks, or sticking with stocks?
1 Agrees | 3 Disagrees | Report Abuse »
If you didn't buy stocks when the DOW was at or near 6500, you missed the boat. If you haven't been selling at least some while it has been 14 to 15 thousand, you are a fool.
9 Agrees | 0 Disagrees | Report Abuse »
Gosh, again, it is all Obama's fault, right dusty/bdgi? Well, lets talk about Mr. Larouche's thoughts on Glass-Steagall. This law was originally repealed through the work of congressional Republicans in 1998 and Clinton signed the repeal. There have been bills put forth in both the house and the Senate in the past year or so to reinstate G-S. The sponsors were democrats and independents. The bills were stymied by Republicans including Senator Johnson of SD, who is chair of Senate Banking committee. It is the Republicans that are supporting the repeal and it was the Republicans who gave Wall Street the biggest support with the Tax gift of 2002. Hedge fund managers pay 15% on their income which runs around $30 million a year because of the tax gifts. Wall street is the Republicans playground. Oh, and those business leaders: They visited the Republicans too. What a great source, bdgi,?????
3 Agrees | 7 Disagrees | Report Abuse »
Actually, it is oil that keeps it all afloat. When oil starts to become less abundant, the market will crash and burn like one of the space shuttles did.
It will be bad.
8 Agrees | 2 Disagrees | Report Abuse »
I invest in land. It basically is safe, and they don't make any more of it.
10 Agrees | 1 Disagrees | Report Abuse »
I'm looking to invest in local beer breweries . . . and liver transplant technology.
1 Agrees | 10 Disagrees | Report Abuse »
So true, Dustoff3.
5 Agrees | 4 Disagrees | Report Abuse »
DustOff - you're trolling.
Back off.
3 Agrees | 4 Disagrees | Report Abuse »
You're trolling.
Go take a walk. Read a book. Go do some other activity. The internet will still be here when you get back.
3 Agrees | 3 Disagrees | Report Abuse »
Wow, now you are an investment advisor too, dusty? You and lefty need to get together. Let me see, I am surprised that you did not have the breakdown on political contributions, dusty. Lets just take 2012 for example. Wall Street's political contributions went 80% to the Republican party and their candidates. So, who is beholding to Wall Street. Well, they (the Republicans) better realize that those contributions will dry up and we all know how the Republicans chase big money for contributions.
2 Agrees | 3 Disagrees | Report Abuse »
Dusty, you are so hard to convince. Hmmm. But you are always right, at least in your own little mind. Look it up yourself on politifact and look for wall street political contributions. Hmmm, right there- 80% in 2012. In fact, Wall street has favored the Republicans since mid 2009 and also into 2013. Go look it up. It is not on Fox News or Rush's web site. So, you would not have seen it.
1 Agrees | 4 Disagrees | Report Abuse »
Well, actually, I thought I would fool you, dusty, but you are too good. During the Presidental election year of 2012, the Republicans got most of the wall street contributions but in the last quarter of 2012 they got 80% of the donations that quarter too. $37 million to 9 million in that quarter alone. Yep, wall street owns the republicans and they better be careful because the dog is about to bite the Republicans.
1 Agrees | 4 Disagrees | Report Abuse »
Here is what our congress has become. I have said for years that nothing will get done on anything until we have complete CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM: The entire financial sector (finance, insurance, real estate) drowned political candidates in campaign contributions, spending more than $1.738 billion in federal elections from 1998-2008. Primarily reflecting the balance of power over the decade, about 55 percent went to Republicans and 45 percent to Democrats.
2 Agrees | 3 Disagrees | Report Abuse »
You are such a predictable chicken, dusty. I gave you ten years worth of spending totals which included the 2012 figure to show how Wall Street favored the Republicans. After all, that was the topic you brought up. But, since you cannot defend your talk with facts, you try to switch the topic. You can get the figures for 2008 but that is old news. What is news is what Wall Street has spent to buy favors the past three years. But, I expect miss direction and hiding from you. I am surprised that you aren't asking about Tripoli or calling me comrade. I am amazed that the MDN allows you to use the verbage you do on Veritas. Oh, and that great health care plan you are on is a State plan isn't it? You do triple dip or is it four times over. All off government programs.
3 Agrees | 3 Disagrees | Report Abuse »
Just for centerish, from opensecrets . org...
"As recently as 2009, Democrats were collecting more campaign cash from Wall Street than Republicans. Starting in early 2007, when Democrats took control of both houses of Congress, the financial world's campaign contributions shifted decisively to favor the Democrats; it's not uncommon for an industry's contributions to favor the party in power. Through the financial crisis, Wall Street contributions to Republicans totaled more than those to Democrats just once, but the gap was never startling. In President Barack Obama's first year in office, Wall Street sent Democrats $29.9 million, and Republicans $20.7 million.
"That dynamic shifted at the end of 2009, with more money flowing to Republicans in 2010 -- again, not an unusual pattern as congressional Republicans were clearly on the rise. But starting in 2011, as the chart below shows, the gap widened and Wall Street's financial support for one party began to tip the scales...
3 Agrees | 2 Disagrees | Report Abuse »
Gosh, loco, you found it???? Good for you. When you print what Obama got in 2008, then you should print what the Republicans got in just one quarter in 2012--- Almost $37 million compare to $9 million for Democrats. So, you put in what Obama got for a year and I put in what the republicans got for ONE quarter. Now, check my next post on the years leading up to 2008. Then, note that the democrats got more in 2008 but, by the last quarter of 2009, the Republicans took over again, culminating in the 2012 bonanza.
2 Agrees | 3 Disagrees | Report Abuse »
Dusty, stay out of this, it is something you cannot comprehend-- FACTS,
2 Agrees | 3 Disagrees | Report Abuse »
"The entire financial sector (finance, insurance,real estate) drowned political candidates in campaign contributions, spending more than $1.738 billion in federal elections from 1998-2008. Primarily reflecting the balance of power over the decade, about 55 percent went to Republicans and 45 percent to Democrats. Democrats took just more than half of the financial sector's 2008 election cycle contributions." Remember what happened in 1998???? Repeal of what banking law????
Oh, what is 10% of $1.738 Billion???
3 Agrees | 2 Disagrees | Report Abuse »
Well, I'm not going to be rude and tell leftywing to stay out of this, even if he's not posting "facts."
From your post, centerish:
55% Republican, 45% Democrat
Not much of a difference to me.
Isn't it important to diversify one's portfolio? Looks like that's exactly what Wall Street interests have done.
And that was respectfully posted too, by the way.
Have an excellent day, all
1 Agrees | 1 Disagrees | Report Abuse »
Well, 10% of 1.738 billion dollars certainly is not chicken feed. If the numbers were reversed, it would be a big deal to the wingers. But, the initial comments were that Wall Street contributed more to the Dems etc. This would disprove those comments. Republicans have always coddled to wall street more than the dems. I have said it many times that the repeal of the banking bill in 1998 was orchestrated by the Repubs and unfortunately signed by Clinton. It was the start of the downfall of our financial system. Oh, any you have a great day too.
1 Agrees | 2 Disagrees | Report Abuse »
One more comment on the wall street influence. The concern was for the year 2008 when Obama, by your figures, got about $9 million more in contributions. But, the $1.73 billion ends up giving Republicans an average of $17.3 million more per year. That is certainly significant in comparison to the one or two years that the Dems got more than the Republicans but not close to the average the Republicans got. Just sayin.
1 Agrees | 2 Disagrees | Report Abuse »
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BOOMco.™ Smart Stick Refills Printable Targets
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Motorola Atrix listed for £474.99 on Expansys
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LG: Optimus 2X on sale in UK in February
LG has confirmed to Pocket-lint that the LG Optimus 2X will be launching "mid to late February". The news comes after Expansys listed the new dual-core smartphone on its site with a 21 February release date. The worlds first dual core smartphone,... >>
Win a Drobo 4 storage device
Pocket-lint has teamed up with eXpansys UK to give away a Data Robotics Drobo 4 Bay Automated External Enclosure (FireWire 800 & USB 2.0) worth nearly £300 as a competition prize. Drobo is a storage robot that utilises a revolutionary technology, BeyonRAID,... >>
Samsung Galaxy Tab delayed?
It was all excitement and cheers at the launch of the Samsung Galaxy Tab at IFA in Berlin, Germany, however that might be turning to doubt and worry after Amazon, the UK online retailer, has moved its availability date from October to November for the... >>
Acer Stream: exclusive to eXpansys
We're quite excited about the Acer Stream. Its specs suggest that it could be a real player in the smartphone market and we liked the look of it when we got hands-on at the beginning of last month. We thought that the networks would be all over it like... >>
HTC Legend, Desire and HD mini priced and up for pre-order
Expansys is quick out of the gates on the new announcements from HTC at Mobile World Congress, since it is already taking pre-orders for those that can't wait for the new Nexus One and Hero replacements to land. UK shoppers looking to get an unlocked... >>
Motorola Milestone sells out in less than 3 hours
Online retailer eXpansys, the exclusive stockist of the new Motorola Milestone (review), has revealed the new high-end handset has sold out in record time. As the phone made its UK sales debut on 10 December, it sold out in 2.5 hours. "Today (Thursday... >>
Motorola Milestone is on sale in the UK now
Arguably Motorola's biggest launch since the RAZR, the Motorola Milestone - the European version of the already launched Droid (just named Time's gadget of the year) is now available in the UK. Rather than go down the increasingly-common, operator-exclusive... >>
eXpansys offers BlackBerry Bold 9700 for £420
UK online retailer eXpansys is offering the just-launched BlackBerry Bold 9700 on pre-order for £419.99. This price is for the SIM-free handset-only, so the smartphone can be used on any network. As far as networks go for the Bold 2, Vodafone is due... >>
New TomTom Start revealed by retailer
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Knights of Columbus officers
The Weirton Assembly 1194 Fourth Degree Knights of Columbus announced the 2014-2015 officers. They include, from left, Two-Year Trustee Edward J. Kansa, Faithful Comptroller Desi Polgar, One-Year Trustee Bernard Kelly, Faithful Captain James Kelley, Faithful Pilot Lawrence W. Deroea and Faithful Purser John K. Jonczak. Also selected as officers were Faithful Friar Richard Mankowski Sr., Faithful Navigator Tom Zelinsky, Faithful Admiral William Snyder, Faithful Scribe Ronald G. Sekersky, Inner Sentinel John Pennacchio, Outer Sentinel Joseph DiAngelis and Three-Year Trustee George Griffith. — Contributed


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STRATE HOT LAVA !! these are really nice ... S/O ta Gourmetkicks
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September 26, 2012 BY John Kim / 5
LeBron 9s continue to get heavy rotation in the custom sneaker circles as we get yet another magnificent product from one of more notable names in the custom circuit. Done by GourmetKickz, the Nike LeBron 9 'Invictus' is actually a spin-off of a previous custom he's done, which was inspired by poem during his pledging days with the Alpha Phi Alpha Fraternity. Using the LeBron 9 'Black History Month' as a base, GourmetKickz brings forth the tribal print to the outer weave panels and creates a yin-yang approach with the alternate color-blocking (blue on the left, gold on the right). A detailed gallery awaits you, so take a look and get your custom 'Invictus' LeBrons straight from the source here.
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Thursday, January 17, 2013
Editors Note: The following eulogy was written by Catherine Dominguez. Her brother, William Carlos Bill Dominguez was killed in a bicycle/pickup truck accident near Georgetown on Jan. 7. The incident is still being investigated by the S.C. Highway Patrol.
Catherine Dominguez lives in Severna Park, Maryland. Her brother Bill and their parents moved from Detroit, Michigan to Leesburg, Florida in 2012.
Bill Dominguez had ridden his bicycle more than 260,000 miles over the years, making trips to and from Michigan, Maryland, New Jersey, Florida and other places, visiting practically every state in the country on a bicycle.
My brother Bill was dealt a harsh deal in the game of life. He was diagnosed with autism when just a young child. Extremely intelligent with an incredible sense of memory, Bill knew the states and capitals at an early age. I remember him being able to recite the presidents in order. Bill loved doing puzzles. The kitchen floor and later the basement floor used to have the completed puzzles on them. He loved astronomy and could recite any fact about anything related to the solar system. He helped me in 9th grade write a speech on astronomy. Who needed the Internet back then when I had a brother who could memorize facts and figures? And recall them when asked.
He loved backgammon. When he was a child, he read books about strategies about backgammon and quickly became an expert. I stopped playing with him when I realized I couldnt beat him anymore.
Despite his autism, he went on to get a Bachelor of Science in Computer Science at the University of Detroit. He was only 2 classes shy of his masters degree.
Bill became aware during his teenage years that he didnt fit in. It frustrated him frequently. There was no manual or book that he could read, that would explain the complexities of human emotion and body language. He tried so hard to bridge that gap and just wasnt able to. I remember wishing on birthday candles and first stars of the night, that he would be cured of his autism.
I regret my kids will not get to know him in to their adulthood. I remember Bill as being such a sweet little brother. The only time I really remember him as being a pest was when I was about 11 and he figured out the combination to my suitcase. Taunting me, he kept unlocking and locking my suitcase. We were getting ready to leave for Maryland to visit my aunt and uncle for Thanksgiving. Angrily, I hid my suitcase behind the couch so he would leave it alone. Naturally, I forgot to tell my parents. When we reached the hotel that night, my suitcase was not found. I got in trouble and a new set of clothes.
He survived kidney cancer. He developed seizures as a young adult. Despite all of this, he biked.
Bill saw the country in ways no one else did. He saw museums and zoos in the cities that he would bike through. My parents often remarked that a guardian angel sat on the handlebars of his bike. His angel protected him through other bike accidents.
Bill would plan in meticulous detail each bike trip. He biked to Alaska, through Canada. He biked to Florida, to Maryland. Bill was always eager to share his plans for future bike trips. Many trips he planned were truly arduous such as biking round trip to Alaska from Michigan and to the average person unthinkable, but not to Bill. And those who knew Bill knew he would follow through on those plans. It was indeed rare that he could not complete a journey. Bill traveled more miles and to more states on a bike than most people travel by car, bus or plane.
Bill loved to travel. He knew the dangers of biking and had been hit by a car before. There are many things that we can learn from Bill and the way he approached life.
For Bill, every day was an adventure and he faced that adventure with passion and commitment to reaching his goals. Bill set lofty goals and he knew that the only way to achieve a goal such as biking across the country was to take it one day at a time. Each day presented a new set of challenges, including weather, hills, distance, or navigational issues. Some challenges were a bit more daunting than others. In particular, Bill did not like biking in the rain or wind, yet that did not stop him. If anything it just made him more focused on reaching his goal for the day.
Bill was blessed to encounter numerous trail angels on his journeys. People who befriended him, offered advice and assisted him in times of need. These people were equally fortunate to have welcomed Bill into their lives. Bill has gone on to other journeys but his legacy will live on in the many lives he touched during his adventurous life.
To Bill, it wasnt the destination so much as the journey along the way. His luck came to end when he was violently hit by a pick-up truck an accident that could have been avoided if only the driver had paid more attention to the journey instead of his destination.
Bills ashes will be scattered on the Atlantic Ocean in South Carolina. He had gotten acquainted with the area. BiIl loved Myrtle Beach because of the people that lived there and its scenic view.
My parents figured out that if you added up all the miles he had biked, it was equivalent to the distance from here to the moon. So when you look up at the sky tonight, think of Bill as he bikes to his final destination to Heaven.
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State Park Info
PARK HOURS: Daily – Sunrise to Sunset
PARK ADDRESS: 1170 East Highway 4, Arnold, CA 95223
~ Note, be careful putting address into a GPS. The results are often misleading. ~
All Reservations are handled through Reserve America from May 23rd to Sept 15th
Please call 1 (800) 444-7275 or visit this link at Reserve America
Please visit http://www.parks.ca.gov/calaverasbigtrees for more information.
Calaveras Big Trees State Park provides the opportunity for schools, families or any group to hold their special events in the Park. Whether it is a reunion, a picnic or a wedding on the Big Stump, there is a place in the Park that will make your event memorable. Also, the historic Jack Knight Hall is also available for rent for meetings, receptions, dinners, or other special occasions. For more information, please call Theresa at 209-795-2334
Volunteers play a vital role in protecting the park's resources. Through their annual 10,000 hours of service, volunteers tremendously increase the ability of park staff to provide a high-quality park experience to our over 200,000 visitors. There are many benefits to those who choose to volunteer, such as free training, use of the park, passes to other California State Parks, and best of all ~ camaraderie, friendships, and satisfaction. Whatever your interests, there are rich opportunities for volunteer service at Calaveras Big Trees State Park.
For more information please contact us at (209) 795-7980 or send an email to email@example.com.


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Ready to help!
That's the rough translation of the Filipino phrase "handing tumulong," and it's the catchphrase for a foundation that is hosting a 5K run/1.5K walk next week in Bayonne to benefit victims of typhoons in the Philippines.
Loves 2 Help: the 5K Run/1.5K Walk takes place Sunday, Sept. 22 at Stephen R. Gregg Park, located at 43rd St. & JFK Blvd. Registration fees -- $35 the day of, or $30 through pre-registration – go toward the Handing Tumulong Foundation's efforts to provide assistance victims of typhoons and other natural disasters.
The foundation wants to provide money immediately after the disasters.
"(Typhoons) devastated the Philippines and it took the local community four months to raise funds to be able to send support to the devastated country," said Nelsie Parrado, the event's chair. "Realizing this, (we) decided to form a pro-active organization that would have ready funds to send help to areas ravaged by natural calamities. Here, the group saw the need to fund raise even before disaster strikes."
Registration for the 5K run/1.5K walk begins at 7:30 a.m. at Stephen R. Gregg Park. There are discounted registration fees for USATF members, children under the age of 18 and for families (two adults and children).
The running portion of the event will begin at 9:30 a.m., while the walking will commence at 10:30 a.m. Prizes will be raffled off at the event after trophies and medals are given out to the top male and female finishers.
Last year, the Fair Lawn-based organization held the event at Liberty State Park in Jersey City and brought in about 200 runners from New Jersey and New York and around $7,000. Over the past five years, Handing Tumulong has raised over $150,000 for disaster relief efforts in devastated communities around the world, the organization said.
To become a sponsor, serve as volunteers or pre-register for the 2013 5K run/1.5 K walk, contact Parrado at (201) 960-7965 or co-chair Mia Fernandez at (917) 532-2014. On-line registration can be done through active.com.


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"So the final lesson of 1918, a simple one yet the one most difficult to execute, is that those who occupy positions of authority must lessen the panic that can alienate the members of a society. A society that takes as its motto, "every man for himself" is no longer a civilized society. Those in authority must retain the public's trust. The way to do that is to distort nothing, to put the best face on nothing, to try to manipulate no one. Lincoln said that first and best. A leader must make whatever horror exists concrete. Only then will people be able to break it apart."
--John Grady, The Great Influenza
Update: In this article I go over the basic design of an ABM for flu. In the next article I discuss some experiments I ran on the model. And now you can actually run the model.
- How does an epidemic like the new H1N1 strain spread?
- What factors turn an epidemic into a pandemic?
- Why doesn't everyone get it?
- Can hand-washing and face-masks really prevent the spread of disease or do they just slow it down?
- Why are some communities devastated and others emerge almost unscathed?
Over the last weekend as news about the new Influenza A H1N1 virus spread I went into personal crisis management mode, i.e. stressed out. An influenza that primarily kills healthy younger people is troubling and the early reported death rates seemed to confirm that we were faced with a flu that was both virulent and that our immune systems aren't experienced with. I've built Agent-based models of pathogen epidemics and so have some sense of the dynamics involved. And a few years back I'd read John Barry's brilliant book and come away from that with a greater sense of the uniquely challenging aspects of influenza and how political failures in the face of pandemic disease can cost countless lives and plunge whole societies into terror and dysfunction. (By the way, it turns out the George Bush actually did read a few worthwhile things in office.) This new strain looked like the one that people have been worrying about. But sitting around feeling vaguely uneasy isn't very satisfying. So, I thought that it might be helpful and interesting to build an ABM model and share it with people. Agent-based modeling is a great tool for helping people to understand complex phenomenon -- and influenza is a very complex phenomenon.
An important caveat: This isn't a perfect model, and I'm not an expert in epidemiology. So as in everything, question assumptions, trust your own critical judgement, and find primary sources. On the other hand, people make policy and personal decisions based on far worse models than this. And, as my friend and mentor Joshua Epstein has often pointed out, we all have models, but unfortunately most of the time they are implicit -- full of hidden assumptions and inconsistencies. So while this model isn't perfect, it is better than one based on paranoia, anecdote or broad generalization. Because Agent-Based Models (ABMs) map directly to a mental model of how the various parts fit together but add rigor, transparency and the ability to test hypothesis, people who aren't experts in esoteric math can understand and trust them. And because they work over space and time, we get to see the dynamics; how a disease spreads, not just what a given end-state looks like.
While we're talking about Swine Flu because of current concerns, this is actually a quite general model that applies to many different kinds of pathogens. Joshua Epstein, Derek Cummings, Shubha Chakravarty, Ramesh Singha and Donald Burke developed and researched the first ABM models of pathogens, and this model draws on that effort. You can read about the small pox model alone in Toward a Containment Strategy for Smallpox Bioterror: An Individual-Based Computational Approach, but I'd recommend Chapter 12 in Josh's Generative Social Science as it goes into great detail about the overall context, and the other chapters will give you a lot more to chew on. In all of the model runs below, we've made no attempt to calibrate the model to an actual disease, so while it fits qualitative influneza dynamics well, don't expect it to match quantitative results.
While I've addressed prior work that I'm aware of there may be important pieces I've missed. If I've omitted an attribution please let me know. Similarly, any errors are my own and should not reflect on the work of others that I mention here.
A Traditional Model
The classic model for epidemics is the compartment model. The basic idea is to create a set of variables representing the number of people in different disease related categories. In the simplest "SIR" model we have a variable each for the number of individuals who are Susceptible, Infectious, and Recovered. A set of equations represent the rate at which these numbers change over time. When you make some (not-insignificant) assumptions and work these equations out, you get the basic outcome on the right. The green curve represents the number of people infected at any given time. (Unfortunatly, the graphic I found for this doesn't match up with the colors we use later in the model.) Over time, as people move from susceptible and then recover we get two classic "S-curves" as the population as a whole moves out of the susceptible state and later into the recovered state. This kind of curve is found throughout natural and social systems. For example, sales of a new category of products (VHS machines being the classic example) often look like the red curve. In the case of contagions, the rate of new infection moves quite slowly at first, accelerates steeply as more infected people create even more infections, and then falls off as the number of people infected reaches a kind of saturation level.
In this context I can't help but point out how a perfect example of how the public's lack of basic science literacy can be further confounded by news accounts that don't take the responsibility to put raw numbers into context. The NY Times generally has excellent science coverage, but reported the following reassurance on Thursday: "Some experts are cautiously optimistic. A computer simulation of this outbreak released Wednesday by a team from Northwestern University projected a worst-case scenario, meaning no measures have been taken to combat the spread. It predicted a mere 1,700 cases in the United States four weeks from now." Take a look at the figure to the right. How reassured would you be if you knew that four weeks was at this point in the disease projection? Actually, we don't know from the story where we are, so the numbers are only meaningful in a narrow context, for example in determining appropriate short-term health care response. They tell us literally nothing about the long-term outlook!Let's build an ABM and see if we can capture that basic behavior. I designed a working version of this model in an hour or two using MetaABM -- a very high-level modeling tool I've been developing over the last few years -- and have been refining it over the last week. Once you design a model in MetaABM using MetaABM's visual tools, that model can be automatically converted into the Java computer language to run on a number of different modeling platforms.
The ABM Model
Our model has categories, but they are a bit more complicated than the model above -- we've added a disease status for exposed; split infected into two categories, one for those who are symptomatic and one for those who are asymptomatic (it isn't obvious that the person is sick and they are still moving around normally); and we'll keep track of dead agents as well as recovered. But the most important thing about our model -- what makes it an agent-based model -- is that instead of keeping tack of a single population number for each category, we actually create individual objects, each with its own disease state, other characteristics, and most importantly a location in space. As I explain below for each agent we also keep track of the period that disease states occur.
BehaviorsThen we give the agents a set of behaviors; they move around a landscape, they can become infected and move from one disease state to another, and most importantly, they can transfer the disease from one person to another. The basic life cycle of an agent goes like this; underlined values are model parameters that we can change. At the beginning of each model run, for every agent:
- Move to a random location in our space.
- Draw a random number. If that number is less than the Initial Infection Probability, become exposed.
For each period after for every agent:
- Move to a random neighboring space.
- Pick a random neighbor and if one exists, make a random draw. If that draw is lower than the Contact Transmission Probability then expose our neighbor to the virus.
- If exposed, the agent determines the number of days that it will be in each of the states, based on:
- Min and Max Period Exposure
- Min and Max Period Asymptom
- Min and Max Period Symtom
- Go through our disease process:
- If exposed and the period of exposure is over, become infected, either asymptomatically, or if the asymptomatic period is zero, symptomatically.
- If asymptomatic and that period is over, become symptomatic.
- If symptomatic and that period is over, make a random draw. If that number if greater than the Case Mortality Rate, recover, otherwise die.
Model Runs
"The three goals, Dr. Cetron said, can be plotted on the graph of new infections called the epidemic curve. "You want to shift the curve to the right, blunt the peaks and squash the area under them."" - From the NY Times article quoted above.
How might we accomplish that goal? Why would we even want to? Let's explore different parameterizations of our model and see if we can gain any insights from them. Play the Quicktime Movies below to see running versions of the models.
Run I: No Interventions (Base Parameters)
As we've kept statistics on our model, we can a graph of what has happened over time. Looks familiar! (Again, note that the colors don't match the first chart.) Now, our model is noisier, but that's exactly what we want. "The real world is messier", and though we certainly aren't modeling the real world, we're arguably a lot closer than in the original equation based model. Now it's my chance to be reassuring and point out that this model has not been calibrated against any kind of real world situation. For example, the death rates are very high -- evan at its most virulent, the Spanish Influenza showed "only" half the death rate shown. You might have noticed already something in the Quicktime movie: even in this model of a very rapidly spreading and virulent disease, not everyone got exposed.
Run II: Hygiene (Lower Transmission Probability)
| In the next run, we'll lower the Contact Transmission Probability from .12 to .08, or by 1/3. We could interpret the difference in two ways. Perhaps in this new version of our little agent world, the virus is simply less contagious. Or perhaps our agents have followed everyone's advice and are washing their hands more often. This is an example, folks -- please keep washing your hands, regardless of what this model seems to be saying, ok?
Now, we have to be careful about drawing conclusions by comparing single model runs. In a real experimental effort we'd be doing parametric studies, which just means that we'd be changing the values like transmission probability systematically and doing many (like thousands) of runs to determine what effects these changes have and whether model runs are consistent when given same initial values. (And actually, as we'll discuss in another post, some of the most interesting models are those that aren't consistent from run to run.)
But we can make some observations. And.. hmmm.. nothing much seems to have changed. We're certainly not seeing 1/3 fewer cases! Almost the same number of people became sick and the duration of the epidemic isn't any different. Perhaps the overall exposure is a bit lower but that could be due to random variation in the model. But.. one thing that is somewhat different is the peak number of cases. That could actually be very important. If you only have so many ventilators available, lowering the peak number of cases by 80% could mean the difference between life and death for many more people, not to mention saving hospital personnel from having to make some very difficult choices.
Equations or Agents?
The issue of hospital resources points out another challenge of modeling that is subtle but extremely important. What exactly does a case mortality rate even mean? Casually, people take it to mean "how deadly is the disease", but it really matches closer with "how many people did the disease kill, given their health status, exposure to previous strains, and availability and quality of care". Well, is the quality of care some fixed thing? No, it is actually affected by the number of people who are sick. But our model assumes the death rate as in input parameter, and we don't know how many people will die; that's the point of running the model!
This is a real problem with equation-based models like the classic one we've mentioned above. It doesn't have a "closed-form" solution, which is a polite way of saying that they can never really provide a solution for a question such as "how many people might die in this epidemic"? Now, before I get a bunch of hate-mail from every researcher in the world who still owns a jacket with elbow patches, I should clarify that. There are ways to get very very close to a good solution by using some sophisticated tricks (I mean "techniques") and by making just a few minor assumptions. One of the most common assumptions is that there are an infinite number of individuals. Another, a favorite of economists, is that there is an infinite amount of time. The biggest assumption of all is that everyone is the same. OK, I'm still grossly simplifying -- and I'll probably get some very polite hate-mail anyway -- so let's move on.
What is different about an agent-based model? First, and perhaps most importantly, questions like "how can we know the death rate when we don't know how many hosptital beds we'll have?" are a lot harder to ignore. The very process of exploring the model causes us to ask more and more questions. The model transparency draws us in, rather than forcing us out. Instead of being faced with complex equations ("you wouldn't understand, but trust me on this") we have a clear set of attributes and behaviors and we can watch those behaviors in action. Does this mean that our models will never suck? Absolutely not, but we have a much better chance of seeing when they do and making them better. In the case we're referring to here, modelers might choose to add a value for hospital care quality to the overall death rate calculation. This value might at first be some measure of total cases against some global resource level. But over time, we could refine it further and create agents that represent hospitals at particular locations and give them a particular number of ventilators along with some way to get more. And so on.
The key point is that while the general public (whatever that means) seem to actually over estimate the quality of expert estimates -- sloppy media interpretation of those estimates only compounding the issue. Not only do experts make (quite understandable) guesses, the theoretical models behind those assumptions are typically quite limited. Even with (or perhaps because of) all sorts of mathematical tricks and assumptions we end up with a model that is very hard to understand and analyze. People spend a lot of time in graduate schools learning how to do this and the models still miss important details. And they always will, because in the real-world where we are in time matters, and individuals are different. We need equation-based and statistical models and all the rest, but we shouldn't rely upon them. Agent-based models give us another way to look at the world that can challenge traditional models and reveal dynamics we might not otherwise have seen.
Run III: Restricted Contact (Lower Movement Probability)
|Back to the main point..we really haven't changed the total number of cases at all. What about adding movement restrictions? Let's add a parameter, called Movement Probability. Then we'll modify the movement rule so that every period, agents make a random draw and only move if that draw is less than the probability. We'll set the value to 0.5 to start off. If we run the model we can see the agents do seem a little less active, and we get a curve that is much lower. But so what? Unless our primary concern is emergency services capacity all that we've done is prolong the misery, right? Whereas the unchecked epdemic is pretty much over by period 500, in this model it drags on for another 100 periods or so. This one could actually get us into the land of unintended consequences. For example, researchers seem to agree that a new flu could be much more dangerous if it appeared at the beginning of the regular flu season instead of the end. In that sense, we're lucky that the flu appeared when it did. But if we prolong the period of outbreak, are we increasing the chances that the disease will linger and spread into the next flu season? The Spanish Flu Pandemic followed exactly that pattern.
Run IV: Hygiene and Restricted Contact
There is an obvious next move here, and that is to combine the two strategies. Let's try to get people to wash their hands and be a little less social. In the face of a crisis, this is exactly the kind of thing that makes everyone scream about useless half-measures. "What difference does it really make? Everyone is going to get it anyway". But let's run the model and look at the results. Not only have we lowered the peak as before, but we've also actually managed to control the epidemic much more quickly. And something else that's really nice. We have a significant number of people who never acquire the flu at all -- three times fewer than for the run we did on the previous model. This is especially interesting, because the two methods in isolation didn't change that figure at all. (The death rate is better too, but the rates are so small that we can't really draw a solid conclusion from that.) Do two half-measures make a whole measure? (Outside of the realm of music class, that is?) Well, I don't know about you, but I have a pretty healthy level of skepticism when it comes to government pronouncements about my well-being. (Apparently, eggs are good for us again.) And all of this talk about washing hands and avoiding crowds strikes one as exactly the kind of thing someone would say if they were out of any better ideas. But maybe these guys are on to something.. It certainly merits a closer look.
What's next...Well, as always seems to be the case, the explorations of the model took a lot more time to write up than they did to do. (And I'd still like to edit this all a bit more as I'm sure I've made a mess of one or two things!) But its 3 am and time to pack it in.
So far we've looked at a pretty simple model, and found some interesting -- if not actually earth-shattering -- dynamics. There is a lot more to explore. If you want to try the model out yourself, it's available in the Eclipse AMP project examples. See http://eclipse.org/amp. And please share your insights and questions here.. we can marry our fears and anxieties with a bit of curiousity and perhaps even enjoy ourselves in the process!