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The American Election and Israeli Coalition Politics
October 27, 2016 § Leave a comment
After what many viewed as Prime Minister Netanyahu's boosterism on behalf of Mitt Romney in 2012 and his meetings in New York last month with Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, there has been inevitable chatter about how Israeli politics is impacting the U.S. presidential election. For what it's worth, I thought in 2012 that Netanyahu largely got an unfair bad rap over allegations that he was trying to influence the campaign, and I give him credit this time around for having clean hands. By all accounts, Netanyahu gave zero encouragement to Trump when he was making noise about taking a campaign trip to Israel last spring, made no independent effort to meet with the candidates while in the U.S., and made sure to reach out to Clinton to schedule a meeting only after Trump asked for one first. While there is plenty of speculation about the Israeli government's preferences and how those preferences will impact the election, the more interesting angle goes the other way. The U.S. election has the potential to wreak havoc on Israeli politics, and it is forcing Netanyahu to make some potentially momentous choices with regard to his own political positioning.
The past couple of months have not been kind to Netanyahu and Likud insofar as the polls go. In early September, public opinion surveys showed Yesh Atid pulling ahead of Likud were elections to be held, with Yesh Atid more than doubling its current seats and Likud's share cut by 25%. Another poll in late September confirmed this trend holding, with Yesh Atid ahead of Likud by four seats despite more respondents preferring Netanyahu to Yair Lapid as prime minister. While the numbers dictate trouble ahead for Netanyahu and Likud politically absent some sort of course correction, there is one important way in which the polling acts to Netanyahu's political benefit. Israeli government coalitions are notoriously unstable – Netanyahu's most recent government lasted just over two years, and there have been nine governments in the twenty one years since Yitzhak Rabin's assassination – and it oftentimes takes little to bring a government down. Coalition partners are able to hold the prime minister hostage by insisting on an array of demands and threatening – explicitly or implicitly – to bring down the government and force new elections if they aren't met. Conversely, when the polls show the leading party benefitting from new elections, the prime minister will often force a crisis, such as when Netanyahu fired Yair Lapid and Tzipi Livni in December 2014 in order to try and pick up more seats and bring the Haredi parties into the government.
The current government is in many ways one that should be particularly susceptible to hostage taking behavior by Likud's coalition partners. The coalition is 66 MKs – and was only 61 MKs until Avigdor Lieberman brought Yisrael Beiteinu into the government in May – and it can be unilaterally brought down by four out of its five coalition partners, since a defection by any of the four would put the coalition under a majority of 61 Knesset seats. It is filled with party leaders, such as Naftali Bennett and Lieberman, who harbor ambitions to replace Netanyahu, have extremely checkered pasts with him, and are also widely reputed to loathe him personally. It contains parties with wildly different priorities, from Habayit Hayehudi and its focus on its settler and rightwing nationalist constituency to Shas and United Torah Judaism and their championing of ultra-Orthodox welfare and religious priorities. It has been plagued with fights surrounding the budget. In short, few people thought this government would last particularly long.
The recent polls change that calculus, because the prospects of Yesh Atid winning and forming the next government mean that Habayit Hayehudi and the Haredi parties would be doomed to irrelevance. Despite Lapid and Bennett's unlikely partnership of strange bedfellows in the previous government, it is difficult to foresee a coalition led by Lapid in which their two parties coexist. The Haredi parties are also terrified of Lapid, despite his recent efforts to take a softer rhetorical line on their pet issues, since he represents the secular elite with whom they clash and his late father, Tommy Lapid, was Israel's most ardent and outspoken secular leader and Haredi opponent. In addition, Moshe Kahlon and his Kulanu party would nearly disappear if new elections were held today, and Kahlon's future political career is dependent on his banking some tangible policy victories as finance minister. In short, Netanyahu's partners can no longer afford to make idle threats of bringing the government down, which makes Netanyahu's coalition far more stable in inverse proportion to how strong Likud is polling.
Which brings us to the wrinkle, which is our presidential election here at home. Currently, Netanyahu's biggest fear is that President Obama will do something on his way out the door related to the peace process and/or settlements, ranging from what Netanyahu views as disastrous (a binding UN Security Council resolution) to enormously inconvenient (a speech laying out Obama's views on parameters for future two-state negotiations). Netanyahu and Israeli officials have been furiously lobbying everyone from the president on down not to make any moves on this front, and they have been counting on the uncertainty of the election outcome to forestall any surprises, since Obama will not want to do anything that may drive Jewish voters in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and other swing states toward Trump. After the election though, all bets are off, and this is particularly so in the unlikely but still possible case that Trump wins, since then Obama will have no concerns about saddling his successor with a policy on Israel that may not be to his liking. Even if Clinton wins as expected, the unusually harsh American response to the Israeli government's plan to build a new neighborhood in Shilo for the relocated Amona settlers makes Netanyahu and his coalition partners fear that there is an American sword of Damocles waiting to drop.
In Netanyahu's calculations, the one possibly foolproof thing he can do to head this all off at the pass is to bring Yitzhak Herzog and his Zionist Union party into the government and make Herzog foreign minister, which explains the dalliance with Herzog a few months ago and the constant reports that he and Herzog are once again cooking up plans for a unity government. Netanyahu thinks that bringing in Herzog and giving him the diplomatic portfolio will signal to the world that he is genuine in his desire to see a two-state solution, and that it will prevent a post-election move from Obama while starting him off on the right foot with Clinton should she win. It will also not bring down his government if Herzog can bring enough Zionist Union MKs with him to replace the eight from Habayit Hayehudi who will leave should Zionist Union join, and while it leaves Netanyahu with a suboptimal coalition from a policy standpoint and creates future political problems for him, it gives him diplomatic breathing room.
I am skeptical that Netanyahu's fears are well-placed since I think the likelihood is greater than not that Obama does nothing earth shattering on the Israeli-Palestinian front before he leaves the White House, but there is also little question that Netanyahu's calculus on this is presenting him with a political choice and that he is weighing his options. So the intersection of American politics and Israeli politics are indeed important for the next few months, but the impact will be far more heavily felt in Israel than here.
Your Handy Guide To Netanyahu's Coalitional Maneuvering
May 19, 2016 § 1 Comment
On Tuesday, center-left opposition leader Isaac Herzog was set to become the new Israeli foreign minister after bringing the Zionist Union into a national unity government. On Wednesday, rightwing gadfly and Bibi Netanyahu frenemy Avigdor Lieberman was set to become the new defense minister while Herzog was consigned to losing his party's leadership and his potential new cabinet post. Looking for answers to your questions about all of the political shenanigans? You've come to the right place.
Isn't there supposed to be a new unity government?
Netanyahu and Herzog have reportedly been talking about bringing the Zionist Union into the coalition ever since the government was formed with the Zionist Union on the outside last spring, and these negotiations burst into the open in recent weeks. For Netanyahu, the appeal was primarily twofold. First, despite the fact that his 61 seat coalition does not have any huge ideological fissures, a government with a one seat majority is never a comfortable place from which to operate. Bringing in Herzog and the approximately fourteen Labor Party members from the Zionist Union faction that he would have brought along would give Netanyahu breathing space and not make every coalition member a potential hostage taker. Second, there is something of a perfect storm gathering on the horizon on the diplomatic front, with the French initiative, the forthcoming Quartet report that is expected to be harsh on Israeli settlements, the end of the Obama administration (bearing in mind that Clinton and Bush both made a renewed effort at Israeli-Palestinian peace on their way out the door), and the 50th anniversary of the 1967 war all looming. Appointing Herzog as foreign minister would give Israel a friendlier face in Western capitals and offset some of the pressure that is hurtling down the road by signaling that Israel is more serious than assumed about finding a way to get to two states.
From Herzog's perspective, he leads a party that has been plummeting in the polls, is completely ineffective in its opposition to the government, and he himself was facing massive discontent within the ranks. Entering into talks to join the government only sealed his inevitable demise within the Labor Party, as everyone from Zionist Union co-chief Tzipi Livni to Herzog's predecessor Shelley Yachimovich to popular rising Labor star Stav Shaffir was opposed to joining the government. Indeed, Shaffir and other Labor members have now called for him to step down. Even if he were successful in joining the government, Herzog would have only brought a rump contingent with him. Nevertheless, if he was going to be ousted for ineffectiveness at some point, Herzog clearly believed that he may as well join the government as a top minister and also clearly believed in his ability to affect change from the inside. Not only did this make sense for him, it was the only way for him to maintain any real relevance. There was also the added wrinkle of Herzog mysteriously claiming earlier in the week that there was a secret regional diplomatic opportunity that might disappear if not immediately acted upon and that he was the man to make it happen, and then Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi on Tuesday offering warmer relations with Israel if it would reach a settlement with the Palestinians. Some saw this confluence of events as a bit too convenient, speculating that Netanyahu and Herzog had coordinated this with Sisi in order to pave the way for the unity government to happen.
So what happened?
Suddenly, everything turned on a dime, and it became apparent that Netanyahu had been using Herzog to instead entice Avigdor Lieberman and Yisrael Beiteinu to join the coalition, a move that prompted Herzog to cut off talks on a unity government. Netanyahu and Lieberman have a long and tortured history, and after serving as foreign minister in the last government (with a corruption trial that forced him to temporarily step down from the post for a year), Lieberman decided to remain in the opposition after the last election and has been sniping at Netanyahu from the right ever since, accusing him of selling out the rightwing and not being a true nationalist or Zionist. It has been a smart political move for Lieberman, as Yisrael Beiteinu has six seats in the current Knesset and a poll released this week by the Israeli newspaper Ma'ariv shows that going up to eleven, but ultimately Lieberman has always wanted power, and being in the government is the only way for him to do it. Becoming defense minister – particularly in the wake of the Hebron shooting and the Yair Golan speech and at a time when there is concern within the nationalist camp over the direction of the IDF – is perfect for Lieberman, and he will get to demonstrate that he is more hawkish than anyone else in Israeli politics while using the power of his post to protect the settlement enterprise
From Netanyahu's angle, he gets to remove a thorn in his side and also shore up his own internal political position. There has been serious friction between him and Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon and major discontent within the Likud ranks over where Ya'alon's priorities lie, and now Netanyahu gets to remove him and mollify the right by creating the most rightwing government that can be assembled. He also gets to neutralize the critiques coming from his biggest long-term threat, Naftali Bennett, by removing the basis for the charge that Netanyahu is not sufficiently attuned to the concerns of settlers or in step with the nationalist camp. Netanyahu also still gets to expand his coalition, but does so in a way that makes his base happy rather than making them think that he is selling out rightwing principles.
How can Netanyahu pursue Herzog and Lieberman at the same time? That's like a voter who thinks that the economy is rigged supporting a billionaire who lives in an apartment made of gold and marble and whose success is based on borrowing money from banks based on family connections and his last name.
There are a couple rules of Bibi politics that you need to know to make sense of this. The first is that Netanyahu is constantly in search of room to maneuver, but don't ever presume to know what he wants to do with that space. The smart take on Tuesday was that he needed the flexibility to deflect the pressure from the French and the Quartet and to take advantage of the regional overtures about which he is constantly boasting, but he then went and ignited a wildfire on his own lawn. There is literally no more inflammatory figure as defense minister than Lieberman, who is on record as wanting to execute the terrorists that Israel captures alive and keep in perpetuity the bodies of those they don't. Any caution that Ya'alon has exercised in the West Bank, where the defense minister has final decision making power, is now going to dissipate overnight. Not only has Netanyahu decided not to deflect the diplomatic pressure, he has taken the move that will ramp it up to the highest possible level.
This segues into the second rule, which is that Netanyahu is always more worried about threats that come from his right than about threats that come from his left, and he will always guard his right flank irrespective of anything else that is going on. He perpetually faces the choice of going in a more moderate direction and mollifying the center and Israel's allies, or tacking right and mollifying the rightwing, and he always chooses the same way. The surprise here is not that he played Herzog in order to reestablish his rightwing credentials, but that anyone thought that he would actually go through with it. In one fell swoop, Netanyahu has silenced Lieberman's continuing criticism of the government, removed the specter of a hard right rebellion against Ya'alon that would have reverberated against him as well, cut off any discontent from the settler wing by ending talks with Herzog that might have led to measures curtailing settlement growth, and set himself up for the next election as the man who puts Zionism and nationalism first no matter what the rest of the world thinks. The threats that were massing against him on the far right are now largely – although not entirely – neutralized.
This is a long piece. Anything else we should be looking out for while you are in a talkative mood?
Yes, and thanks for asking. This whole thing is not as entirely straightforward as it seems, and there are some potential surprises and some potential pitfalls. It is important to know that during the Kerry negotiations two years ago, American officials found Lieberman during his time as foreign minister to actually be a helpful presence and willing interlocutor. Despite the fact that he is a hardliner on settlements and the Palestinians more generally, he seems to understand far better than Netanyahu that international opinion is not meaningless and that protecting the U.S.-Israel relationship is truly an existential issue. Amir Tibon's excellent Tablet profile of Lieberman last May noted that he has surprisingly strong links throughout the Middle East and has promoted himself as the person to unite Israel and its Arab neighbors, and so while he is no longer foreign minister, the fact that there appear to be regional opportunities abounding as Lieberman returns to power is interesting.
On the domestic side, including Lieberman in the coalition will generally make Netanyahu's Likud members happy, but it will infuriate the Haredi parties. They do not coexist well with Lieberman given the importance among his Russian constituency of breaking the Haredi monopoly of control over marriage and conversion, and it is bound to cause Netanyahu some serious unpleasantness.
This move also empowers Yair Lapid and Yesh Atid, who would have been the largest non-Likud vote getter in the next election anyway and who will now be the unquestionable de facto alternative to Netanyahu as the Labor infighting between Herzog and his adversaries destroys the party from within. This entire episode gives him a much larger megaphone, and he consequently may actually be able to present a serious electoral threat to Netanyahu the next time around.
Finally, and perhaps most seriously, I predicted in December that civil-military relations were going to be potentially explosive in 2016, and with the tension between the IDF and the government over a range of issues, that has sadly been a topic that I got right. Replacing Ya'alon – a former IDF chief of staff and staunch defender of the military, which is what has prompted the tension between him and Netanyahu during the last couple of months – with Lieberman, who had a relatively undistinguished stint in an IDF artillery unit and has been attacking the military leadership over its values, is not going to improve this situation, to say the least. Netanyahu has made his choice, and I am afraid that it will mean a rocky period ahead on a number of fronts.
Lessons To Be Learned From Netanyahu's Victory
March 18, 2015 § 9 Comments
I'm going to pat myself on the back for predicting on Monday that Likud and Bibi Netanyahu would win the most seats, that Buji Herzog would have no viable path to becoming prime minister, and that the government formed would boil down to Moshe Kahlon deciding whether to go with Netanyahu or force a national unity government (for the record, I think Kahlon going with Netanyahu is now an inevitability given how things turned out.) But my specific seat predictions were way off, and it's easy to see how. I expected two things to happen, which I closed out the post with: "First, I think that Likud will gain back some votes at Habayit Hayehudi's expense as rightwing voters are freaked out by the late Zionist Camp surge in the polls, and decide to throw their support behind Netanyahu despite their general fatigue with him. Second, socioeconomic issues are dominating people's concerns, and that will translate into unexpectedly strong showings for Yesh Atid and Kulanu at the expense of Zionist Camp and Shas." I was more right than I knew about that first statement, and vastly underestimated just how much that shift from BY to Likud was going to occur. I was dead wrong about that second statement, which is what led me so far astray. Let's dive into the numbers a bit to see what actually happened yesterday, and I have some thoughts on what the various consequences might be.
The most useful comparison is between this year's results and the 2013 results. In 2013, the rightwing bloc of Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Habayit Hayehudi won 43 seats; the leftwing bloc of Labor and Meretz won 21 seats; the two state solution bloc (which was only Hatnua) won 6 seats; the socioeconomic reform bloc (which was only Yesh Atid) won 19 seats; the Haredi bloc of Shas and UTJ won 18 seats; the Arab bloc won 11 seats. The last two seats went to Kadima, but frankly nobody at the time could explain what Kadima stood for and was running on, and I'm not going to try.
In yesterday's election, the rightwing bloc of the same three parties won 44 seats; the leftwing bloc of the same two parties plus Hatnua (since it formed an electoral alliance with Labor) won 28 seats; the socioeconomic reform bloc of Yesh Atid and Kulanu won 21 seats; the Haredi bloc won 13 seats; the Arab bloc that is now the Joint List won 14 seats. Compared to the last election, the nationalist right picked up only one seat, the left picked up only one seat (since Zionist Camp plus Meretz in 2013 added up to 27, and it's unfortunately impossible to tease out which Zionist Camp votes were for Labor and which were for Hatnua), the socioeconomic camp picked up two seats, the Arab bloc picked up three seats, and the Haredi parties lost five seats. Nothing about this is a surge for the right, or for any side for that matter; the various blocs remained more or less constant, with the exception of the Haredi bloc losing seats due to the Shas-Yachad split. But it is unquestionably a surge for Likud itself, which went from 19 seats in the current Knesset to 30 seats in the next one. Where did those seats come from? It's pretty evident that they came from the two other rightwing nationalist parties, Habayit Hayehudi and Yisrael Beiteinu, which respectively won 12 and 11 seats in 2013 but fell off a cliff to 8 and 6 yesterday. When you add in the seat that Likud picked up once Eli Yishai's Yachad party did not make the threshold, you account for pretty much all of Likud's gain. There is simply no denying that Netanyahu's eleventh hour tactics worked, which were to drum up turnout on the right and explicitly make the case that rightwing voters could only vote for Likud or they would be risking a leftist government. He successfully cannibalized his natural allies, and in so doing increased Likud's share of the pie without making the pie any bigger.
The related questions of turnout versus polling are interesting as well. My initial instinct yesterday was that the polling – both pre-election and exit – must have been garbage, and I noted on Monday that there are many reasons not to trust Israeli polling, which proves to be inaccurate in some measure every cycle. After thinking about it a bit more though, now I'm not quite so sure. The legal moratorium on polls in the last few days before an election meant that no poll could be conducted after Thursday, and the exit polls were concluded two hours before the actual election itself (since they aren't interview surveys, but require Israeli voters to cast their actual vote and then go and cast a dummy vote in a fake voting box for the exit pollsters, which then get collected and tallied). Netanyahu's huge campaign push – in which he gave an unprecedented number of interviews and turned up the nationalist rhetoric – occurred over the weekend and through election day itself, so the pre-voting polls would have had no way of capturing this effect. As far as the exit polls go, final voter turnout was up 4% from 2013, but if you were obsessively keeping track of the turnout numbers throughout the day yesterday as I was, you know that this turnout surge did not take place until very late in the day, so that the exit polls (which aren't really polls) missed much of it. The exit polls may very well have been correct in reflecting a 27-27 deadlock between Likud and Zionist Camp at 8 PM Israel time, and the anecdotal evidence suggests that there was a flood of rightwing voters in the last couple of hours. The takeaway from this is not necessarily that Israeli pollsters are incompetent, although that can't be ruled out, but that the accuracy of Israeli polling is not served by the legal blackout at the end of the campaign. On turnout, it should be noted that Netanyahu's old-fashioned barn-burning turnout efforts destroyed the get out the vote campaign run by V-15 and Jeremy Bird. Likud increased its share of the rightwing vote, while Zionist Camp didn't increase the percentage of leftwing voters or even get more of them to vote for Herzog. The money spent in this campaign to unseat Netanyahu was as big of a waste as what GOP groups spent in 2012 to get rid of Obama.
If there is one big thing that jumps out at me the day after, it is that ideology and identity distinctly trump economics in Israeli politics. Like in 2013, voters overwhelmingly listed socioeconomic concerns as their top issue in the run-up to the election, but ultimately that made little difference. There was no flock of new voters to Yesh Atid and Kulanu, which both ran on the economy and quality of life issues and had very little of substance to say on security. Likud, which barely bothered to campaign on specific policies, hugely increased its vote share by essentially saying, trust Netanyahu on security and send a message to the leftists and their foreign backers trying to take over your country. It was an emotional and identity-based appeal to nationalism that resonated with many voters, and it is a tactic that is sure to be replicated on both sides in the future.
There are many dangers in overt appeals to nationalism, one of which is that when you win, it makes it easier to demonize your opponents and claim that you have a mandate to do whatever you please. For Exhibit A through Z on how this works in practice, take a gander through the increasing ugliness of Turkish politics that has been wrought largely by Tayyip Erdoğan. Israel's political system makes this even messier because of how it is structured. Netanyahu will act like he has been granted an enormous mandate following a landslide victory; after all, he beat the next largest party by a 25% margin in seats, obliterated the predictions for Likud based on the polls, and is going to control the winning coalition and be prime minister. Taking a step back though, Israel's proportional representation political system means that in reality he won only 23% of the votes cast, which translates to 25% of the seats in the Knesset. He is simultaneously the clear winner and on the receiving end of 77% of Israeli voters preferring someone else. This does not in any way make his win illegitimate, and anyone who argues otherwise does not want to face reality, but the fact of the matter is that the system itself encourages post-election overreach. Netanyahu and his supporters are going to insist that his win validates his entire approach to politics, the Palestinians, the international community, etc. because voters were presented with a choice and they choose him. The true answer to that is in some ways yes and in some ways no, and as he will be leading the government fair and square, he can do as he pleases since that is how democracy works. But objectively, when the clear victor can only manage to get 1 out of every 4 votes cast, the system is probably not translating voters' preferences into the appropriate policy outputs.
I don't think much needs to be written on what Israeli policy will look like under a third consecutive Netanyahu government, since there aren't very many surprises left. Netanyahu is who he is, and he is not going to undergo a late in life conversion that convinces him to shift course. I am more interested in what happens to Israel in the U.S., since Netanyahu's reelection is going to keep on affecting one political trend that is already in full swing and may influence another, and perhaps more important, social one. The first is the partisanization of Israel in the U.S., which was very much laid bare by the machinations surrounding Netanyahu's speech to Congress. The blame for this lies partially on both sides, although I certainly think one side is far more to blame than the other. Everyone with a dose of common sense knows that the White House badly wanted to see Netanyahu get tossed out by Israeli voters and that Netanyahu is now just biding his time until January 20, 2017 so that he never needs to think about Obama again, so it goes without saying that relations between Obama and Netanyahu for the next 22 months are going to be abysmal, and probably even non-existent. Will U.S.-Israel ties survive and come out the other side intact? Of course they will. But there will be more ugliness ahead and short-term relations are going to be very rocky, and if I worked in the prime minister's office, starting today I would be spending all of my time coming up with a strategic plan for operating in the world without an automatic U.S. veto in the UN Security Council, because I think that era is now officially over. Netanyahu clearly and explicitly rejected a Palestinian state on Monday, and there is no walking it back or dissembling after the fact. That he did so wasn't and shouldn't be a surprise, but it destroys the legal fiction that he had constructed, and so when the Israeli government talks about the Palestinians not living up to their Oslo obligations or their promises to the Quartet (which in many ways they aren't), that now officially goes both ways. You cannot insist that Palestinians must establish a state through the sole route of negotiations with Israel after you have declared unequivocally and without reservation that there will be no independent Palestinian state in the West Bank so long as you are prime minister. It was electioneering, but electioneering is not consequence-free.
Lastly, there is the pink elephant in the room that I have been ignoring so far in this blog post. Assess the following quote: "The right wing government is in danger. Black voters are coming out in droves to the polls. Left wing NGOs are bringing them on buses. We have no NAACP; we have the National Guard, we have only you. Go the polls, bring your friends and family. Vote Republican in order to close the gap between us and the Democrats. With your help and with God's help, we will form a nationalist government that will protect the United States." Nobody with any sense of decency would call that a legitimate effort to counter a get out the vote drive targeting minority voters. So when Netanyahu said it yesterday about Arabs – which everyone by now recognizes as the direct quote from him, with the specifics altered of course to make the analogy work – it wasn't simply a legitimate attempt to just bring voters to the polls, as the usual suspects are reflexively arguing. Does this mean that Netanyahu is racist and has been harboring views all of these years that he just now allowed to come out, or that he made a racist appeal in a desperate attempt to boost his prospects? I don't know, and frankly it doesn't matter, since neither explanation is acceptable. The prime minister of any country should be nothing short of proud when more citizens vote, and exhorting only the right kind of citizen to get to the polls in order to counter the wrong sort of citizen is disgusting and unworthy of the leader of a democracy. That some people are falling all over themselves to pretend that there is nothing out of the ordinary or objectionable about this reflects just as poorly upon them as Netanyahu's comments do upon himself. What all of this leads to for me is to wonder how this will affect American Jews. Just as the rejection of a Palestinian state under any circumstances will have political consequences, the blatantly racist appeal is going to have social consequences among American Jewry. American Jews as a group proudly support Israel, and one of the reasons is a conviction that Israel is in a tough spot but is genuinely trying to do the right thing. That argument, both internally and externally, becomes harder by some degree or another after yesterday. Are people going to look at the Jewish state bill in a new light? Is Netanyahu still going to get nearly universal support from establishment groups? Most crucially, what is the effective counter when the odious Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions movement takes this quote and argues incessantly that it proves official and institutional racism in Israel? I don't know the definitive answer to these questions, but I suspect that it will ultimately prove to be a significant aspect of Netanyahu's eventual legacy.
What I Got Wrong, 2013 Edition
December 30, 2013 § 4 Comments
As it's the end of the year, it's time to revisit my 12 months of screw-ups (last year's mea culpa is here). There don't seem to be as many big ones this year as last year, but that is not a function of my improving analysis and is rather a function of my increasingly neglectful blogging habits; last year I wrote 276 posts, this year only 65. Thankfully for all of you though, there's still plenty of material for you to use in heaping scorn upon my head. Here are some of the lowlights.
Israeli-Palestinian peace talks: On February 13, I wrote a post entitled "The Prospects For Real Peace Talks" in which I downplayed the idea that Israel would enter into substantive talks with the Palestinians. I didn't think the makeup of what I expected to be the new Israeli coalition government would allow for real negotiations to take place, and I wrote, "even if Tzipi Livni brings Hatnua into the government nobody should be getting their hopes up too high for a big diplomatic push on the horizon." We can debate whether the current talks are going to lead anywhere real, but certainly the process is taking place and there have been enough signs that the talks have been substantive and are going well that this call was wrong on my part.
Erdoğan's relative reasonableness: This seems destined to become a permanently recurring theme, as a similar prediction made this list last year too. Last year it was about Erdoğan realizing that his interests should override his harsh rhetoric on Israel, and this year it was about Erdoğan realizing that his interests should override his harsh stance toward the Gezi protestors. In trying to figure out how Gezi was going to resolve itself, I wrote on June 7, "Erdoğan does not want to back down, but my instincts tell me that as he is reminded of just how much his popularity depends on the economy and as he faces the prospect of losing the bid for the 2020 Turkish Olympics, he will try to come up with some sort of solution to end the chaos in the streets without having to go so far as to issue a formal full-blown apology. The fact that there is no opposition party poised to take advantage of the situation makes backing down slightly easier for him to do, and even Erdoğan understands just how crucial it is for his and his party's longterm political future to make sure the Turkish economy keeps humming along. Only the prospect of serious economic damage will get him to back down, since giving in to the protestors in any way is completely anathema to his general philosophy and outlook. How long it will take for him to get to this point is way beyond my prognostication skills, but I'd be surprised if he doesn't get there at one point or another."
Oops. Erdoğan did not ease up on his rhetoric in any measurable way, and he in fact actually became increasingly harsher and waited for the protests' momentum to peter out over time, which it did. Eleven days after my prediction, I was forced to write another post dealing with Erdoğan's even more over-the-top responses to Gezi, as the prospect of economic losses clearly had not moved him. It's worth remembering now as the corruption scandal is raging around him, since unlike last year, this time I really have learned my lesson. The only way Erdoğan is backing down this time, economic crisis be damned, is if his party forces him to do so by default in replacing him.
Bibi's position in Likud: I don't know why I am so insistent on this point, but every few months I seem to write a post predicting trouble on the horizon for Netanyahu within Likud to the point that he will be split the party or be ousted. While I am going to stubbornly insist that events will at some point vindicate my point of view, they haven't yet. On June 27 in a post called "The Likud Bell Is Tolling For Bibi" I ran through some of Netanyahu's recent troubles and then denigrated an op-ed my Mati Tuchfeld in which he predicted that Netanyahu could retake the party pretty much any time he wanted. I wrote, "I think this is a bad misreading of the situation that does not take into account just how much things have changed. Likud members used to venerate their prime minister, but at last year's Likud convention, Netanyahu was being disparaged left and right in a way that had never occurred before. In addition, much like the younger generation of Congressional Republicans here, folks like Danon have little desire to stand on tradition and do not venerate Netanyahu, and are not going to "fall at his feet" just because he wishes it….There is a new coterie of deputy ministers and up and coming backbenchers who not only do not like or trust Netanyahu, they don't feel as if they owe him anything. He did not mentor them and they got to where they are now via the Likud primary, which Netanyahu now wants to get rid of, and so they are not going to back him just because he asks. And unlike a year ago, they are no longer revolutionaries and they speak for a larger percentage of the party."
While my assessment of the dynamic was correct, my assessment of Netanyahu's grip on the party and power to influence outcomes was not. Earlier this month, three proposed Likud constitutional amendments whose aim was to weaken Netanyahu were withdrawn under pressure before they could even be brought up for a vote. It seems clear that the new deputy ministers do not like or trust Netanyahu a great deal, but it seems equally clear that Netanyahu is still very much in control of the party and is not going anywhere.
I'm sure there is more, and please feel free to point out any other things that I got egregiously or embarrassingly wrong this year. Here's hoping to a great 2014.
Bibi's Coalition Gamble
February 20, 2013 § 6 Comments
It has been almost a month since the Israeli election, and yesterday finally brought us the first move to form a coalition as Tzipi Livni's Hatnua party agreed to join up with Bibi Netanyahu and Likud Beiteinu. I have been skeptical throughout the campaign and the election's aftermath that Livni would come to an agreement with Netanyahu given her efforts to convince Ehud Olmert and even Shimon Peres to run; her failed maneuvering at uniting Hatnua, Labor, and Yesh Atid into an anti-Bibi bloc; her constant railing against Netanyahu as a danger and a failed prime minister; the fact that Hatnua includes former Labor leaders Amir Peretz and Amram Mitzna, neither of whom are exactly Netanyahu cheerleaders; and finally, her refusal to join with Bibi after the last election when her party – which was then Kadima – had the most seats in the Knesset and she would have been able to work out a deal in which she served as co-prime minister. Nevertheless, Livni has now reversed course and has accepted the positions of Justice Minister and chief negotiator with the Palestinians, and she will be reporting to Netanyahu rather than the eventual Foreign Minister in this latter gig.
Many people are now speculating on what this means for the peace process and whether Livni's overseeing negotiations means that we can expect some real movement ahead. I don't think this changes anything and I wouldn't be taking any investment advice from people who think that Livni is going to pull Netanyahu along rather than the reverse, but the really interesting angle here is the political one. Bringing Livni into the coalition is not about Netanyahu signaling anything on the peace process, but about putting pressure on Naftali Bennett to join the government. The thinking on Netanyahu's part goes as follows: he now has 37 seats lined up and getting Kadima and its 2 seats is a given, and he is on the verge of adding Shas (his real goal all along) and its 11 seats, which means that he can then turn to Bennett and Habayit Hayehudi and use their 12 seats to get past the magic number of 61. Netanyahu is gambling that once he adds Kadima and Shas, he will present Bennett with an ultimatum of joining the government or calling new elections, and that Bennett will not be able to withstand the pressure ensuing from calls for him to join a rightwing coalition and so he will crack. Essentially, Netanyahu is betting on Bennett's alliance with Yair Lapid and Yesh Atid not being strong enough to buck the rightwing nationalist forces in HH who want to band together with Likud and the religious forces in HH who don't see why serving in a government with Shas is the end of the world. Hence the immediate rumors that negotiations with Shas are proceeding and that it too will join the coalition imminently.
This plan of Bibi's seems nicely formulated, but ultimately I don't think it will work. More importantly, if Bennett is smart he will make sure that it doesn't. The success of Bibi's strategy turns on the idea that Bennett will do anything to avoid going to another round of elections, but much as I thought (correctly, as it turned out) that Netanyahu miscalculated in allying with Yisrael Beiteinu, I think he is miscalculating here as well. Netanyahu's gamble is that new elections will cost Bennett seats and weaken his position, and that might have been true before yesterday, but bringing in Livni changes things in a big way. If I am a HH voter, I am not going to punish the party for not joining with its natural Likud partner by fleeing and and now voting for Likud since bringing Tzipi Livni on board to deal with peace process issues makes Likud untrustworthy. Looking at this map of election results and seeing where HH got votes makes this point abundantly clear; voters in Elon Moreh and Karnei Shomron are not now going to give up on Bennett and vote for Bibi given his most recent coalition choice.
In addition, many Likud voters are not going to be terribly happy now that Netanyahu has banded together with Livni, and I don't see how doing so possibly increases his share of votes at all in a hypothetical new round of elections. If anything, it drives even more people away and into the arms of Bennett, and if you need some further proof, just look at Moshe Feiglin's crack today that he hopes Likud will be in the coalition too. Furthermore, by trying to repeat history and bring Shas – his most pliable partners – into the coalition, Netanyahu is turning his back on the draft issue, which is one of the most popular issues in Israel today and which Lapid rode to his stunning success. Not only is Netanyahu potentially angering his base by bringing Livni in, he is angering many other voters who don't understand why he insists on bringing Shas into the government despite the massive popular will for reforming the draft. Given what has transpired, if new elections were held today, I think that Likud would drop even further while Habayit Hayehudi and Yesh Atid would pick up some new mandates.
Netanyahu is behaving as if bringing first Livni and then Shas into the government gives him all the leverage he needs over Bennett to break up the YA-HH alliance, but I think he has things wrong. If he brings in Shas, he will then be unable to form a government without Lapid or Bennett (I am operating on the assumption that Labor is not joining at this point), and so in reality Bennett will be the one with the leverage over Netanyahu. Reports are that Bennett is feeling heat from within his party over his footdragging to run to Likud and his head-scratching unbreakable bond with Lapid, but by brining Livni into the government, Netanyahu actually did Bennett a favor. He now has a good excuse to sit tight, and once Netanyahu strikes a deal with Shas, he benefits further from sticking to his guns on the draft issue and staying out. If I were Bennett and Netanyahu presented me with the ultimatum to join the coalition with Shas or go to new elections, I would be printing up new campaign posters before even getting off the phone.
The Prospects For Real Peace Talks
February 13, 2013 § 2 Comments
I wrote about this topic last week from the U.S. perspective in light of President Obama's forthcoming trip to Israel, but from the standpoint of Israel politics some comments yesterday from Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett are worth highlighting in assessing what movement we can expect to see on the peace process from the next Israeli government. As faithful O&Z readers know, I am fairly confident that Yesh Atid and Habayit Hayehudi will be in the coalition, and I am also fairly confident that Yair Lapid cares a lot more about the military draft issue than he does about the peace process and that he should not be viewed as the great savior of the peace camp and the two state solution. In light of this, let's consider some facts that are emerging about the coalition talks and some things that were said by Lapid and Bennett yesterday in different forums.
To begin with, Lapid and Bennett have negotiated a deal that binds their fates together so that either Yesh Atid and Habayit Hayehudi will both be in the government or both parties will stay out. While Bibi Netanyahu is frantically trying to peel Bennett away from Lapid by making him extravagant but exploding offers, so far Bennett appears to be resistant to go back on his agreement with Lapid. This is interesting, because obviously Likud is more of a natural partner for Habayit Hayehudi than Yesh Atid is as Netanyahu and Bennett are closer ideologically – despite their history of personal issues – than Bennett and Lapid are. The one issue on which HH and YA are closer on is the issue of the draft and equalizing the burden of service, which suggests that it is the issue most important to both Lapid and Bennett and the one on which both parties are most reluctant to back down. Lots of attention has been paid to Lapid's pledge that he is guided by overhauling the draft and reanimating the peace process and that he will not join a government that does not agree to do both, but in tying his fate to Bennett's, he is signaling that one of those issues is far more important to him than the other and that the peace process condition is more about lip service than anything else.
Then there were Lapid's remarks yesterday before the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations meeting in Jerusalem, in which he said that Ehud Olmert had gone too far in his concessions toward the Palestinians while prime minister, that Jerusalem could never be divided in his view, and that the Palestinians were going to have to accept an interim semi-state within temporary borders subject to future revision. Now, none of this makes Lapid a fire-breathing Greater Israel supporter, but it also does not make him the great champion of the two state solution that some think he is. Not agreeing to a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem and talking about interim agreements are both positions that probably make peace talks doomed to fail before they even begin. The interim agreement is the bigger hurdle of these two, since while Jerusalem can be negotiated over during talks, no Palestinian government at this point will even come to the table for talks that deal with anything less than a final status agreement. This is the ultimate display of someone trying to cultivate a more left-wing image without adopting any policies to match. Again, this does not make Lapid an extremist or out of line with mainstream Israeli popular opinion, but it also does not make him the next Yitzhak Rabin.
Lapid's new best friend also had some things of his own to say about the prospects of a Palestinian state yesterday, but in a much more straightforward way. In a Knesset speech, Bennett said that "there is no room" for a Palestinian state, that it will never happen, and that the government needs to say with finality that the Land of Israel belongs to the people of Israel. Nobody has ever had any illusions about Bennett's views on the peace process and the two state solution so this does not come as a surprise, but the important takeaway here is that Lapid knows full well what Bennett's views are and has still hitched his wagon to Bennett's. Irrespective of whatever his own personal views may be, it is difficult from a political perspective to think that Lapid is committed to real negotiations when he will only go into the government if Bennett goes as well. Taking all of these factors into consideration, even if Tzipi Livni bring Hatnua into the government nobody should be getting their hopes up too high for a big diplomatic push on the horizon.


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Revolutionaries of the Cosmos
The Astro-Physicists
By (author) Ian Glass
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Revolutionaries of the Cosmos by Ian Glass
Book DescriptionGalileo, Newton, Herschel, Huggins, Hale, Eddington, Shapley and Hubble: these astronomers applied ideas drawn from physics to astronomy and made dramatic changes to the world-pictures that they inherited. They showed that celestial objects are composed of the same materials as the earth and that they behave in the same way. They displaced successively the earth, the sun and finally the milky way galaxy from being the centre of the universe. This book contains their biographies and outlines their greatest discoveries. Hard work, physical insight, desire for fame and a strong belief in the rightness of their own ideas were characteristics of all eight. Their often quirky personalities led them into bitter controversies with their contemporaries. But their successes arose from the outstanding clarity of their thoughts, their practical ability and their strong sense of direction in science.
Buy Revolutionaries of the Cosmos book by Ian Glass from Australia's Online Bookstore, Boomerang Books.
Book DetailsISBN: 9780198570998
(242mm x 163mm x 23mm)
Pages: 332
Imprint: Oxford University Press
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Publish Date: 1-Dec-2005
Country of Publication: United Kingdom
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Books By Author Ian Glass
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This book contains short biographies of Galileo, Newton, Herschel, Huggins, Hale, Eddington, Shapley and Hubble - eight astronomers who broke with traditions and defined the cosmos as we know it now.
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Science & Medicine, Natural Sciences, Society & CultureFollow
|Science & Medicine
|Natural Sciences
|Top 200
Deep in the back of your mind, you've always had the feeling that there's something strange about reality. There is. Join Robert, Joe and Christian as they examine neurological quandaries, cosmic mysteries, evolutionary marvels and our transhuman future on Stuff To Blow Your Mind, a podcast from HowStuffWorks.com.
February 18th, 2016
Episode 689 of 798 episodes
Do you believe there's a natural energy that permeates the universe? Wilhelm Reich did, calling it "orgone." He also thought it was generated by orgasms, could manipulate the weather and cure cancer. Join Joe and Christian as they review Reich's life work, including a personal visit to his Orgonon observatory. We cover Reich's history, his contributions to alternative medicine and psychoanalysis, his orgone theories and his construction of orgone accumulators and cloudbusters.
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Welcome to the daily audio workout for your head.


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When it comes to gifts, we've got good news and bad news. Between Thanksgiving and New Year's, the average American household increases its trash output by 25% — that's 5 million tons of extra waste headed for the landfill. That's the bad.
And here's the good: if we think reusable, recycled and upcycled for wrapping this year's holiday gifts, we'll reduce some of that waste and increase the thoughtfulness of our gifts at the same time.
Try making the wrapping part of the gift: give it in a reusable container.
If that paper-ripping sound is a precious part of your holiday fun (especially for kids, cats and dogs), choose sustainably made wrappers.
Or…don't buy paper at all! Check out this alternative wrapping guide from The Daily Green using paper that's imaginative, recycled and free to boot! Bonus: scroll all the way down the page for tip videos on wrapping with a bag or paper.
Then, before you start opening those carefully covered gifts, designate a box or bag to collect any paper scraps — then it's easy to recycle it all when the celebration's done.
Get recipes, tips and exclusive coupons delivered straight to your inbox. You could save $50 a year!


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The Montana Farm Bureau Women's Leadership Committee is offering two $1,000 scholarships to deserving high school students judged on scholastic achievement and goals for college courses as well as community and school activities.
Applications for the WLC Scholarships must be submitted to your county Farm Bureau president by April 1. Don't have the county president's contact information? It is on the application which can be found here.
The Montana Farm Bureau Foundation is offering two scholarships: The $1500 Bernard Greufe Honor Scholarship and the Collegiate Young Farmer and Rancher Scholarship. The Bernard Greufe Honor Scholarship must include a letter or statement from the applicant giving reasons for applying along with the applicant's future plans plus two letters of recommendation and grade transcripts. Applicants for all of the above scholarships must be from a Farm Bureau member family to be eligible. The deadline for the Bernard Greufe Scholarship is April 1, 2016.
The $1,000 Collegiate YF&R Scholarship is solely for students who are members of the Collegiate YF&R clubs at Montana State University or UM-Western. Applications must be in the office by April 15.


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Oscar the Grouch
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S-C-R-A-M. That's spells Oscar's favorite word!. Wallpaper and background images in the Oscar the Grouch club tagged: oscar the grouch sesame street scram.
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Yes there was actually a game and a pretty good one at that, but we are mostly concerned about the ads played during the Super Bowl. These ads are often super hyped and we actually saw most of the ads prior to the event on various blogs and sites. Mostly the ads were a bit underwhelming and only a few spots stood out as memorable. So here are 2 memorable spots:
Careerbuilder.com and misery in the office
Ed McMahon and McHammer for cash4gold. Seems like an SNL skid but is a real ad.
Were they worth the money paid for? Well that is another story all together.


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Wego.com.sg recently found 103 hotels in Damascus, Syrian Arab Republic. Find a range of accommodation in Damascus at great prices. Book luxury Damascus hotels or find last minute accommodation. Save more on cheap hotels in Damascus with affordable room rates.
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What's the economy of your relationship? Is there a constant weighing up of cost, risk and benefits, when entering and then maintaining a partnership with another person?
We look at relationships from many angles on this show—today it's going to be market forces that guide our exploration of supply, demand, and the unexpected.
- Dr Marina Adshade
- Vancouver School of Economics at the University of British Columbia.
- Title
- Dollars and Sex: an economist puts a price on sex and love
- Author
- Marina Adshade
- Publisher
- Allen and Unwin
Further Information
- Producer
- Gretchen Miller
- Presenter
- Natasha Mitchell
Comments (5)
the ringless left hand :
05 Mar 2013 10:55:17am
I clicked on the Marina's blog lead but it doesn't take you anywhere?
I'm interested in what Marina has to say and would have liked her to spell out her view on the marriage contract, which does nothing to protect women financially.
If as she says, young men want short term sex relationships, then perhaps they should have to bargain in hard financial terms before they get what they want. If more women woke up to the power they could possess by witholding sex and driving hard bargains to protect themselves, this would see a shift of power in gender relations.
Moderator: Apologies - that broken link will be corrected - thank you for letting us know.
Here is the correct link: http://marinaadshade.com/
Stephen Coates :
05 Mar 2013 11:13:12pm
On one hand, Dr Marina Adshade has used an interesting scenario to teach students economics in the real world and I'm sure this scenario lent itself to the discussion of such topics as substitute goods and opportunity cost.
As to the dating scenario itself, my how times have changed since I went to university and to one that was over 60% male. As a scarce commodity, the women could all but advertise 'I might be interested in a date (no promises), would interested me please queue, complete with resumes and the application fee is ...'. Women in that scenario had the power that Ringless left hand described to, in effect, auction themselves off to the highest bidder. Clearly she resents the fact that there are times and places in which it is men that are in demand and set the dating terms.
ringless and loving it :
06 Mar 2013 8:03:09am
Short term sex relationships don't require a ring. Scary thought, isn't it, that men might not be able to get the sex they want from an over supply of females and just because they exercised their right to refuse you.
Stephen Coates :
06 Mar 2013 10:24:15pm
You generalise that all young men want is short term sexual liaisons with no sense of commitment. During my university days, commitment wasn't what anyone was after, they were just after relationships accompanying their studies. Universities with medicine and law schools, on the other hand, had many women in other fields, hoping to marry.What I and other males disliked were women who, when they were in short supply and knew it, teased men with hints of just a slightly possibility of sex. It would appear that on campuses today, the shoe's on the other foot.
ringless and loving it :
07 Mar 2013 2:30:47pm
You may not like being teased,but you don't have as much to lose; i.e. you as a male can't get pregnant and left with a ruined career and a child to raise alone in poverty.
Many women are waking up to the immature sexist arrogance of men like you. By the way, that description of Australian men came originally from a European man, NOT a woman! You don't own us.


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Fresh food isn't the only way to help your dog or cat get the most out of life. From bathing tips to health-related info, find out the latest pet-related news and stories on our blog.
Say Yes To The Fresh Outdoors With Us!
With Memorial Day just around the corner and the weather getting even warmer, all of us here at Freshpet are saying YES to enjoying more of the fresh outdoors. After all, there's nothing better than a beautiful day spent outside with our pets. That's why we're excited to announce our latest giveaway with our friends from Yes To! We've teamed up to get you and your…Read More >>
Herbie's Story
Every week we share an inspiring Tail of Good from the pet community. But this week we thought it would be better shared straight from the source of our story. When pet parent Sara adopted her chihuahua Herbie and discovered health issues brought on by his past she realized that she would have to make an effort to nurse him to better health. She found that simple…Read More >>
Popular Pet Names for Your New Cat or Dog
We consider Spring as a great adoption month! The weather is beautiful, making it perfect for training and bonding with your new friend outside. But before any of that happens, the most important part about bringing a new pet home is giving them a great name. We had our team of "pet naming experts" make a list of their favorite (and popular) names of the moment that…Read More >>


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Requiems: Duruflé & Fauré
Sunday 4 Jun 2017, 7.30pm
Royal Festival Hall, London
Our box office is closed from 4pm, 23 December 2016 - 9:30am, 3 January 2017.
Tickets are still available through our website; however, any tickets to be posted will not be dispatched until 3 January 2017.
The Rodolfus Choir was founded in 1983 from the most accomplished singers from the summer choral courses, now known as the Eton Choral Courses.
There have now been 131 of these week-long courses, held all over the country. The choir's first activity was a tour of Italy and Southern Germany. Since then they have toured regularly, including three visits to America. Their sixteen recordings include two of the music of Francis Grier, one of large-scale arrangements of nineteenth-century orchestral works and songs by Clytus Gottwald, the Monteverdi Vespers and the Bach b minor Mass. The last six CDs have been brought out by Signum. As well as regular broadcasts on BBC Radio, recent projects have included working at Abbey Road Studios to record Elgar's Sea Pictures with the English Chamber Orchestra. 2013 marked the Anniversary of the Rodolfus Choir, celebrated with a Gala Concert at St John's Smith Square on New Year's Eve. 2014 includes performances at the Three Choirs Festival and Westminster Abbey.
Sunday 4 Jun 2017, 7.30pm
Royal Festival Hall, London


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|"Matt Benson (JIRA)" <j...@apache.org>
|[jira] Commented: (LANG-416) Import MethodUtils and ConstructorUtils from BeanUtils
|Sat, 08 Mar 2008 13:45:46 GMT
[ https://issues.apache.org/jira/browse/LANG-416?page=com.atlassian.jira.plugin.system.issuetabpanels:comment-tabpanel&focusedCommentId=12576540#action_12576540 ] Matt Benson commented on LANG-416: ---------------------------------- See Hen's post http://commons.markmail.org/message/apidlhmmdqgsotdr?q=list:org%2Eapache%2Ecommons%2Edev . I had been planning to add similar code to Lang precisely because I'd never noticed these classes in BeanUtils. I simply share Hen's opinion that this type of functionality is fundamental enough to belong in Lang. > Import MethodUtils and ConstructorUtils from BeanUtils > ------------------------------------------------------ > > Key: LANG-416 > URL: https://issues.apache.org/jira/browse/LANG-416 > Project: Commons Lang > Issue Type: New Feature > Affects Versions: 2.4 > Reporter: Matt Benson > Fix For: 3.0 > > > Mentioned on the mailing list... After we release 2.4 I'd like to: > - import ConstructorUtils > - make CU.getMatchingAccessibleConstructor() public > - import MethodUtils > - factor best-match calculation code out of MethodUtils into abstract superclass MemberUtils, make ConstructorUtils extend MemberUtils and use the same code (be on the lookout for ways to improve best-match calcs; my original description was based on javadoc that said the first matching method encountered was used, but this comment seems to have been outdated). > - merge any other duplicate (or near-duplicate) code from CU/MethodU into MemberU and remove anything else that doesn't make sense in the context of Lang. -- This message is automatically generated by JIRA. - You can reply to this email to add a comment to the issue online.
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December 19, 2007 — Press Item
So far this year, a record 25 million toys have been recalled for hazards ranging from dangerously small magnets, to excessive levels of toxic lead, to other choking dangers.
Mr. Speaker, this landmark, bipartisan legislation – the Energy Independence and Security Act – represents a vital turning point for our nation and an historic accomplishment for this Congress.
Today the House is considering one of the most important human rights measures we have dealt with all year --- a bill related to the world's worst ongoing humanitarian disaster, the genocide in Darfur, Sudan.
This week the House will take up an omnibus appropriations package that will reinvest in the needs of our nation.
December 17, 2007 — The Daily Whip
Energy, Veterans and Suspensions.
Appropriations, Energy and Suspensions
December 15, 2007 — Press Item
December 16, 2007 — The Daily Whip
12PM:10PM; Suspensions, consideration of Omnibus Appropriations
December 12, 2007 — The Daily Whip
December 13, 2007 — Press Item
Mr. Speaker, I first want to thank the Chairman of the Intelligence Committee, my good friend, Congressman Reyes of Texas, for all of his hard work on this legislation – the first Intelligence Authorization conference report that we have considered in three years.
House Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer (MD) spoke at a press conference this morning with the Blue Dog Coalition to urge Senate Republicans to join House and Senate Democrats in supporting fiscally responsible AMT legislation.
Let me say right at the top: Department of Defense workers are not going to be furloughed. That is not going to happen.
It is unfortunate, and indeed shameful, that President Bush has once again vetoed fiscally responsible, bipartisan legislation that would provide health insurance coverage to 10 million low-income American children.
December 11, 2007 — The Daily Whip
Defense Authorization, Intel Authorization, TRIA, AMT
House Democrats will abide by their PAYGO pledge and bring a fully paid-for AMT bill to the Floor this week to protect 23 million Americans from an unexpected tax increase.
December 7, 2007 — The Weekly Whip
Suspensions;Foregin Ops Authorization; DOD Authorization; TRIA
Appropriations and Suspensions.
Today's jobs report is just another indication that our economy, under President Bush, continues to muddle along, while millions of Americans are afflicted with economic insecurity and grappling with rising health care costs, gas prices and college costs and stagnating household income.
In This Section:
Email Updates
Latest From the House Floor
On Thursday, the House will meet at 10:00 a.m. for Morning Hour debate and 12:00 p.m. for legislative business. First/Last votes expected: 2:30 – 3:30 p.m. "One Minutes" (15 per side)


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Tumor invasion and metastasis still claim the majority of cancer patients'lives. Although great strides have been made in cancer detection and prevention, the need for a more effective treatment for cancer metastasis remains a central problem. Notably, molecules that control spatial signaling for cell polarization and directed migration contribute to the lethality of cancer through their ability to improve the efficiency of he first steps of metastasis. RhoA contributes to cell polarization during directed cell motility, yet how RhoA is spatially controlled remains unclear. We propose that integrin signaling through cAMP/PKA is instrumental for spatial signaling of RhoA and cell polarization. Importantly, our previous work has shown that ?1 integrins control the generation of PKA activity gradients at the leading edge of migrating carcinoma cells where it controls RhoA function. We provide compelling evidence that these PKA activity gradients exist in breast carcinoma patient samples and in three-dimensional breast carcinoma cultures, which attest to the significance of these gradients in human breast cancer. Integrin??6?4 is upregulated in advanced breast cancers where it is most closely associated with basal-like breast cancers. Importantly, integrin ??6?4 promotes the activation of RhoA by a mechanism that we propose reverses the effect of PKA. Therefore, we suggest that the counter-opposing modes of regulation these integrins have on RhoA permit efficient compartmentalization of RhoA that facilitates breast carcinoma motility, invasion and metastasis. Accordingly, the central hypothesis of this application is that cooperative signaling between ?1 integrins and integrin ?6?4 facilitates the spatial distribution of RhoA activity to promote lamellae formation and directed migration. The long-term goal of our group is to determine how integrins contribute to tumor invasion so that they may be eventually targeted appropriately for therapeutic intervention, with special emphasis on integrin ?6?4. We will test our central hypothesis and achieve our long- term goal through the completion of the following aims: 1) Define the macromolecular complex that couples ?1 integrins to PKA activation thereby limiting RhoA activity at the leading edge, 2) Determine how integrin ?6?4 leads to the activation of RhoA, and 3) Elucidate how RhoA function is altered to promote lamellae formation. We are uniquely suited to perform these studies due to our strong collaborations;our well-characterized models of ?6?4 integrin- and RhoA-dependent invasion and migration;our expertise in integrin biology and Rho signaling, and our solid preliminary data supporting this project. The results obtained from this study will be important as they will go int mechanistic depth regarding how integrins coordinate spatial signaling to achieve polarization, lamellae formation, directed cell migration and, finally, invasion. Ultimately, our study will be significant as it will generate a firmer understanding of signaling pathways that govern leading edge dynamics that will produce successful methods to therapeutically target the early steps in metastasis.
Understanding how integrins signal continues to have a sustained impact on our understanding of cancer biology. Notably, integrins contribute to the most deadly aspects of cancer progression including tumor invasion and metastasis;yet how they contribute to these processes remains poorly understood. Here, we will go into mechanistic depth regarding how integrins coordinate spatial signaling to achieve polarization, lamellae formation, directed cell migration and, ultimately, invasion. By understanding leading edge dynamics of invading cells, better methods of therapeutically targeting the early steps in metastasis will be achievable.
|Chen, Min; Knifley, Teresa; Subramanian, Thangaiah et al. (2014) Use of synthetic isoprenoids to target protein prenylation and Rho GTPases in breast cancer invasion. PLoS One 9:e89892
|Zaytseva, Yekaterina Y; Elliott, Victoria A; Rychahou, Piotr et al. (2014) Cancer cell-associated fatty acid synthase activates endothelial cells and promotes angiogenesis in colorectal cancer. Carcinogenesis 35:1341-51
|Chen, M; Bresnick, A R; O'Connor, K L (2013) Coupling S100A4 to Rhotekin alters Rho signaling output in breast cancer cells. Oncogene 32:3754-64
|O'Connor, Kathleen L; Chen, Min; Towers, L Nicole (2012) Integrin ýý6ýý4 cooperates with LPA signaling to stimulate Rac through AKAP-Lbc-mediated RhoA activation. Am J Physiol Cell Physiol 302:C605-14
|Gulhati, Pat; Bowen, Kanika A; Liu, Jianyu et al. (2011) mTORC1 and mTORC2 regulate EMT, motility, and metastasis of colorectal cancer via RhoA and Rac1 signaling pathways. Cancer Res 71:3246-56
|Paulucci-Holthauzen, Adriana A; Vergara, Leoncio A; Bellot, Larry J et al. (2009) Spatial distribution of protein kinase A activity during cell migration is mediated by A-kinase anchoring protein AKAP Lbc. J Biol Chem 284:5956-67
|Chen, Min; Sinha, Mala; Luxon, Bruce A et al. (2009) Integrin alpha6beta4 controls the expression of genes associated with cell motility, invasion, and metastasis, including S100A4/metastasin. J Biol Chem 284:1484-94
|Cruz-Monserrate, Zobeida; O'Connor, Kathleen L (2008) Integrin alpha 6 beta 4 promotes migration, invasion through Tiam1 upregulation, and subsequent Rac activation. Neoplasia 10:408-17
|Chen, Min; Towers, L Nicole; O'Connor, Kathleen L (2007) LPA2 (EDG4) mediates Rho-dependent chemotaxis with lower efficacy than LPA1 (EDG2) in breast carcinoma cells. Am J Physiol Cell Physiol 292:C1927-33
|Paulucci-Holthauzen, Adriana A; O'Connor, Kathleen L (2006) Use of pseudosubstrate affinity to measure active protein kinase A. Anal Biochem 355:175-82


text:
The PSP Go is Sony's answer to the download culture brought in by the iPhone and picked up by theNintendo DSi. So, will a sleek new look and a roster of download-only titles be enough to take on the might of Apple's gaming apps? Probably not, but there's plenty here for Sony fans to enjoy, and, once you've got through the exhausting set-up process, this media player and console mix is an inviting beast. Sony plans to capture the app market with "minis" – small, casual games – but there are big titles (LittleBigPanet, WipEout) that impress too. Pricey but pretty.
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all along alone it was that feeling , lonliness fills the whole in my heart for you
i want you and all of you , but after what u put me threw some may call me crazy ?
that shit dont phase me i just want you to call me baby . maybe ?
or am i confused am i just looking for love in all the wrong places .
i look around and see the faces of dispare i just want you to really care
and share whatever your open to share ill be there . your on my mind your everywhere
u make me insane , but your love is like heroin running threw my vains .
its there but i still have to strain and restrain from to much of you but i can never get enough of you
i just dont know what to do ?
© Copyright 2017 vcorrinne. All rights reserved.
Status: Finished
Genre: Romance
Poem / Young Adult
Poem / Young Adult
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Fast 82 VW Rabbit Pickup Turbo Deisel
This is the rabbit I currently have on listed on eBay. Engine custom built by us here at TJ customs performance shop. The turbo is a custom built GARRETT ball bearing that I had built to my specs.
1983 Volkswagen diesel pickup running.
A short video of the 1983 volkswagen pickup truck(caddy) running shortly after a 12 degrees cold start after sitting for two weeks. It took it a while to start. Filmed with a nikon d90 slr.
nicks Truck
1980 VW rabbit truck build


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Coast to Coast Tickets is the place for great deals on concert, sports and theater tickets!Follow @CTCTickets
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Note : Your Quotation Request will be directed to Wenzel Associates.
The 501-25387 from Wenzel Associates is a OCXO with Frequency 512 MHz, Supply Voltage 15 V, Phase Noise -104 dBm/Hz@100 Hz to -74 dBm/Hz@10 Hz, Phase Noise 1 kHz -134 dBm/Hz, Phase Noise 10 kHz -160 dBm/Hz. Tags: OCXO. More details for 501-25387 can be seen below.
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Wild Wood gallery & store Artists Editions. Exklusiv by uns!! Acryl, Lasercut. Schöne, große Kette.
In Gold, Weiß oder Holz graviert erhältlich. (Siehe Fotos.) Design by Sheree Domingo in Kollaboration mit den Berliner Produzenten und Djs von Samantha Fox (Renate, Berlin). Go Fox Yourself!!
The Fox is a beautiful creature best seen in the wild, the urban fox is the same creature that has moved into the city. From a distance they look the same, however upon closer inspection these animals tend to be covered in scars with fur hanging off, and are generally found eating from rubbish bins.
Anhänger: ca. 11 x 5cm
Kette ca 60cm


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Belcourt Senior Apartments
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INDEPENDENT SENIORS 55+ . . . very affordable prices for a resort-like lifestyle! Our luxurious Mediterranean-style apartments offer privacy at a terrific value! A chauffeured van is ready to provide convenient transportation. Come meet new friends where you'll have the lifestyle you deserve. You will find a refreshing oasis with beautifully landscaped courtyards, a rose garden next to a tranquil Mediterranean fountain. Belcourt's monthly calendar is planned with fun-filled activities. At our beautiful gated community you'll have all the amenities and worry-free conveniences that will allow you the freedom to enjoy each day to its fullest.
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CHICAGO – Put in a dash of crazy, add a dash of funny and you are defining "The Asylum," a catch-all name for a couple of show events in Chicago, playing at The Apollo Theater Studio through February 23rd, 2017. Behind the scenes of these showcases is producer Michael Sanow, a Chicago theater veteran. For "The Asylum" information regarding the "Atypical Musical Comedy Show" (Tuesdays) and "Access Comedy" (Thursdays), click here.
Ashley Eckstein
'Star Wars: The Clone Wars' Boldly Goes Animated With Potent Story, Mediocre Animation, Anemic ActingSubmitted by HollywoodChicago.com on August 14, 2008 - 11:01pm
Rating: 2.5/5.0
CHICAGO – "Star Wars: The Clone Wars," which is the inaugural animated "Star Wars" project from Lucasfilm Animation and "Star Wars" architect George Lucas, feels and looks every bit as introductory as a foundational attempt could be.


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Are you still getting rain? We picked up an additional 3/4 inch last night. >>
Rich, we are still getting rain. Just north of us have really been hit hard
receiving 5" niht before last when we got 1/2". Rained today and looks like
it could pour anytime and I believe we are to get more tonight & tomarrow.
Not good weather for making a water stream.
Thanks for the information on the green wood. I did look at pvc at a
couple of places but did not see any grooved material.
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Top Definition
Child: I want that new doll that explodes
Mom: A Janka, that might just be to violent
Mom: A Janka, that might just be to violent
by Hankyfanatic May 04, 2010
The Urban Dictionary Mug
One side has the word, one side has the definition. Microwave and dishwasher safe. Lotsa space for your liquids.Buy the mug
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Smooth, soft, slim fit American Apparel shirt. Custom printed. 100% fine jersey cotton, except for heather grey (90% cotton).Buy the t-shirt


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text: The Most Expensive Next-Gen MacBook Pro Costs $3750Adrian Covert6/11/12 3:48pmFiled to: MacBook ProAppleNext-gen macbook proLaptops141EditPromoteShare to KinjaToggle Conversation toolsGo to permalink Curious how much it costs to max out the Next-Gen MacBook Pro with that retina display? For the time being, it's $3750 (or $3749, if you want to get technical about it). That includes a 2.7 GHz Ivy Bridge CPU ($250 upgrade from a 2.6 GHz CPU), 16-gigabytes of RAM ($200 upgrade from 8-gigabytes), and a 768-gigabyte SSD ($500 upgrade from a 512-gigabyte SSD). It's worth noting that this max price is actually lower than both max prices on the previous-gen 15-inch MacBook Pro ($3900) and 17-inch MacBook Pro ($4100). Huh. [Apple]Reply141 repliesLeave a reply


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A look at the best tweets from the world of UFC. Follow @ufc, the list of official UFC accounts, and the list of UFC fighters to keep up with these guys and gals. read news >>
At UFC Fight Night 65, Stipe Miocic picked up a dominant win over Mark Hunt and emerged as one of the top contenders in the heavyweight division. Though Miocic was putting a beating on Hunt, it looke read news >>
UFC Fight Night 65 is in the books and there is plenty to talk about coming out of Saturday's event. Veteran MMA analyst "Showdown Joe" Ferraro headed to Twitter to ask fans what they thought coming read news >>
Following Saturday's UFC Fight Night 65 event, Robert Whittaker, James Vick and Daniel Hooker discussed their big wins.Filed under: Featured Videos, News, UFC, Videos read news >>
Following a loss to former heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos, Stipe Miocic was given an opportunity to rebound in the UFC Fight Night 65 main event opposite Mark Hunt. With six takedowns and an read news >>
Following Saturday's UFC Fight Night 65 event in Australia, several of the winning and losing fighters took to social media to react to the event or share a message with supporters. Check out those r read news >>
Now that UFC Fight Night 65 is in the books, it's time to commence MMAjunkie's "Three Stars" ceremony.Filed under: News, UFC read news >>
With UFC Fight Night 65 in the rearview mirror, it's time to look forward, put on a pair of Joe Silva and Sean Shelby's shoes, and play UFC matchmaker.Filed under: News, UFC read news >>
Stipe Miocic has slowly emerged as a true contender within the UFC's heavyweight division. His vicious stoppage of Mark Hunt during UFC Fight Night 65 on Saturday is perhaps his most important victor read news >>
One should probably be careful about declaring that Mark Hunt's best days are behind him, but perhaps it's finally true. His one-sided loss to Stipe Miocic at UFC Fight Night 65 on Saturday was sober read news >>
After a record-setting night of finishes during the UFC's previous event in Australia, UFC Fight Night 65 turned out to be a worthy encore and produced 10 stoppages in 12 fights. Check out all the po read news >>
From the soccer-mom stylings of Train to the '80s hair metal awesomeness that is Jon Bon Jovi, all the way to 2Pac, Kid Cudi, the Crue and appropriately in Australia, AC/DC, check out Saturday's UFC read news >>
UFC Fight Night 65 is in the books. The results are as follows (results c/o Bleacher Report's live blogger, Craig Amos): Fight Night 65 Main Card Stipe Miocic def. Mark Hunt, TKO (Round 5, 2:47) Robe read news >>
ADELAIDE, Australia – The amount of punishment Mark Hunt had to absorb in the main event of UFC Fight Night 65 against Stipe Miocic wasn't always easy to watch.Filed under: News, UFC, Videos read news >>


text: Kenda Blue Groove TyreCross Country (XC) folding bead version is single ply with Stick-E. Designed to work great on hard packed trail conditions. Front and rear application.Stick-E: A slow rebound rubber (50 shore A durometer) for the ultimate in grip and traction control. The slow rebound rubber acts like a form of suspension that conforms to the trail, rock or roots surface instead of bouncing off it.Specifications: Compound: Stick-E Size: 26 x 2.10 ETRTO: 54-559 Bead: Folding TPI: 120 PSI: 40-65 Weight: 620g ±35gBuy Kenda Blue Groove Tyre from Chain Reaction Cycles, the World's Largest Online Bike Store.Check stock and price


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Why Are the Rich Still Getting Richer? (Video)
April 26 (Bloomberg) -- On "The Real Deal," Michael McKee examines the reasons for the rich continuing to get rich. He speaks on Bloomberg Television's "Money Moves." (Source: Bloomberg)
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Use Whatsapp, Wechat or any other apps to request for live picture/video. If the other party is unable to provide verification, there is high chance that the photos are fake.
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AMA Superbike 2012 Round 10 New Jersey Race 1
AMA Superbike 2012 Round 10 New Jersey Race 1 Race 2 will be online soon!! Enjoy !!
AMA Pro National Guard SuperBIke FULL Race 1 (HD) - Barber Motorsports Park - 2013
Trying to keep up his momentum from Road America, reigning National Guard SuperBike champion Josh Hayes looks to keep firing on all cylinders heading to Barber Motorsports Park for the Triumph SuperBike Classic. Find out more information about GEICO Motorcycle AMA Pro Road Racing by visiting http://amaproracing.com/rr. Follow us on http://twitter.com/AMAProSBK & like us on http://facebook.com/AMAProRoadRacing/. See our full event schedule at http://amaproracing.com/rr/events/
KWS '09 AMA Superbike Series Season Review
In 2009 we had the good fortune to work with the guys at Factory Aprilia Millennium Technologies KWS for the entire season. We documented their race efforts as riders Chaz Davies and Ben Thompson (later replaced by Aaron Gobert) navigated a new rules package on a bike that nobody had ever raced at a professional level. The following is the entire season with the exception of the Laguna Seca round. The segments had been missing from this iteration of OnTheThrottle.TV previous to this re-edit. Enjoy... Share Tags: aaron gobert, Aprilia, ben thompson, chaz davies, daytona sportbike, kws
AMA SBK 2013 Round02 Road America Race1 HD
AMA SBK 2013 Round02 Road America Race1 HD


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Thread: FW 2.35 and PS3 Proxy
07-24-2008 #81
doesnt work for me.. tested it with warhawk, -addon, Home and some other games.
07-24-2008 #82
This method doesn't work with mine PS3 with 2.41. I have installed Vista.
07-25-2008 #83
Damn it, never should've updated my PS3 to 2.4 I'm getting the same annoying copyright error as everyone... damn useless... took me 3 hours to get the whole thing working and dang! It won't install. Is there anyway to downgrade back to 2.36?
07-25-2008 #84
I've been trying this for weeks on 2.41 and still can't get it to work. I don't see how people are getting it!
07-25-2008 #85
PS3 isn't downgradeable yet.
07-25-2008 #86
problem 2.41 firmware
I only can install demos present on ps3 network with 3.41. Wen I have the firmware 3.60, ps3 proxy work without problem i can install anything on my ps3 except for the pay games. also i can install GT5 JP demo version. Now Sony put some type of file verification that now with 3.41 firmware can't install that type of game like GT5 JP demo version.
07-25-2008 #87
Look everyone, it seems that getting the games/demos on your PS3 can be done really easy but then it WON'T install to anyone having firmware version 2.4/2.41. Sony have done something on those version so you can't install anything... tried 3 different demos and so far none installed with the same copyright error.
So until someone manages to find a way to manipulate PKG files to disable that error nothing be can be done, otherwise I'd like to hear it.
07-29-2008 #88
aldostools method works with 2.41, but when you try to install it it gives you the error 8002AE4. I tried with several games but i coudn't intall the games. Can someone help me out finding a way to make it work.
07-29-2008 #89
both the methods are not working for me too in 2.41... this sucks
08-11-2008 #90
This is a slightly different (and easier) procedure to the sythvegeta's method to install demos not available in the PSN store:
0- I assume that you have the PS3.Proxy.Server already configured
1- Go to the PSN store and start the download of a large demo (it must be larger than the one to be installed). IE. Ratchet or Bourne
2- Select to send the download the background and exit from the PSN store.
3- Go to Download Manager in the XMB and pause the download.
4- Copy to the clipboard the URL of the demo (the one of step 1) that appears in the Log tab of the PS3.Proxy.Server
5- Go to the Replace Files tab, press the Add button and paste the URL copied in the step 4 in the left field and select the local PKG file to be installed in the right field.
6- Restart the download in the Download Manager found in the XMB. If you select to show the status, it should display the actual size of the demo stored in your PC.
7- After the download is completed, select to install the bubble found under Game in the XMB.


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On The Ground
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Catalyzing Economic Growth in Mining Communities
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May 8, 2012
Partnership Creates New Source of Income for Farmers in Brazil
In the south of the Brazilian state of Bahia, three organizations are uniting to implement an economic development project that is generating benefits for 60 farmers who live on settlements created after agrarian reform.
October 13, 2011
Finding Value in Waste
The great Peter Drucker once said, "Innovation is the specific instrument of entrepreneurship. The act that endows resources with a new capacity to create wealth." The story of Liset and Ximena Contreras embodies this quote and much more.
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