text: DSpace Community: http://hdl.handle.net/2381/2777 2017-01-18T17:26:44Z 2017-01-18T17:26:44Z Essays on the impact of pollution externalities on economic activity Vescia, Alessandro http://hdl.handle.net/2381/39167 2017-01-17T03:23:00Z 2017-01-16T16:51:14Z Title: Essays on the impact of pollution externalities on economic activity Authors: Vescia, Alessandro Abstract: This thesis considers how pollution affects economic activities. Chapters 2 considers effects of pollution on humans' health. In an overlapping generation model with capital accumulation, agents' status is negatively affected by pollution. Individuals may invest in private health to reduce the burden of the environmental degradation, but this reduces the aggregate savings. Lower savings reduce the capital accumulation dynamic, reducing the optimal growth of the economy. The government can intervene to improve agents' health with public health spending, which crowds out private health investment and is complementary to savings. This work shows that, according to the initial level of capital of the economy and to the "net dirtiness", i.e. the difference of the pollution elasticity with respect to output minus the public health spending elasticity, the economy experiences different longrun growth equilibriums. Chapter 3 evaluates and compare the capacity of an emission tax and of free issued (non-auctioned) permits in terms of the incentives in investing in emission abatement research and in the social welfare. In the model, firms compete a la Cournot with knowledge spillovers. There are two different timing of the game: one where the government can credibly commit to the level of environmental policy; and the second timing where the government cannot credibly commit, and adjust optimally the policy after the firms innovate. This work shows that firms invest more in research when the government can credibly commit to the chosen level of policy. Chapter 4 investigates the role of pollution as a source of income inequality. Blackburn and Chivers (2015), in an overlapping generation model without credit market imperfections but in presence of loss aversion and uncertain return of investment, model agents that inherited from their parent and leave as a bequest to their offspring a positive amount of human capital. If the human capital is below a certain threshold, the loss aversion strongly influence agents, thus avoiding the investment. This reduces their possibility of realising profits and agents may end up in a low-income growth equilibrium with persistent income inequality. We extend their model introducing the pollution flow, which reduces the productivity of human capital and an abatement policy, which mitigates the negative effect of pollution. This work shows that in the presence of pollution, income inequality may increase and that the government can mitigate it through pollution abatement. 2017-01-16T16:51:14Z Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Oil-Exporting Countries: Long-run Determinants and Causal Relationship with Economic Growth Ahmed, Mazen http://hdl.handle.net/2381/39141 2017-01-14T04:08:38Z 2017-01-13T16:01:22Z Title: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Oil-Exporting Countries: Long-run Determinants and Causal Relationship with Economic Growth Authors: Ahmed, Mazen Abstract: This thesis examines the long-run determinants of FDI in oil-exporting countries, and the causal relationship between FDI and economic growth in that group of countries. It focuses on the "traditional" determinants of FDI that have been examined within the literature as well as on a number of other determinants which specifically relate to oil-exporting countries, with a special focus given to political and institutional risk determinants. The thesis relies on two theories as a theoretical background; the Eclectic Paradigm and the Rentier State theory. It contributes to the existing literature of the determinants of FDI. That is to say, it is the first to investigate the long-run determinants of FDI in oil-exporting countries. It also provides a further test for the Eclectic Paradigm particularly by analysing the locational advantages (L) of that theory, taking into the account the long-run effect of these advantages upon FDI in host countries. Finally, it contributes to the literature on economic growth by empirically testing the relationship between FDI and economic growth; considering the impact of FDI on economic growth and vice versa. The data sample in the thesis comprises 44 oil-exporting countries over 30 years from 1984-2012. The thesis reports a number of findings regarding the determinants of FDI. It firstly finds that "openness to trade" and "composite risk" are the most important variables (amongst the overall determinants) for FDI inflows in oil-exporting countries in the long-run, while "law and order" is the most important variable amongst the institutional and political determinants. It also concludes that FDI does not contribute to economic growth in oil-exporting countries; the only contribution is observed within non-rentier and non-Islamic oil-exporting countries. 2017-01-13T16:01:22Z Cointegrated VARIMA models: specification and simulation. Gallego, J. Diaz Vela, Carlos http://hdl.handle.net/2381/38836 2016-12-07T03:23:11Z 2016-12-06T10:26:52Z Title: Cointegrated VARIMA models: specification and simulation. Authors: Gallego, J.; Diaz Vela, Carlos Abstract: In this note, we show how specify cointegrated vector autoregressive-moving average models and how they can be used to generate cointegrated time series. Description: Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 93E15, Secondary 93E03 2016-12-06T10:26:52Z Mind the Gap: A Detailed Picture of the Immigrant-Native Earnings Gap in the UK using Longitudinal Data between 1978 and 2006 Lemos, Sara http://hdl.handle.net/2381/38676 2016-11-24T03:21:37Z 2016-11-23T10:01:30Z Title: Mind the Gap: A Detailed Picture of the Immigrant-Native Earnings Gap in the UK using Longitudinal Data between 1978 and 2006 Authors: Lemos, Sara Abstract: Using the underexplored, sizeable and long Lifetime Labour Market Database (LLMDB), we estimated the immigrant-native earnings gap across the entire earnings distribution, across continents of nationality, across cohorts of arrival, across years and across regions in the UK between 1978 and 2006. We exploited the longitudinal nature of our data to separate the effect of observed and unobserved individual characteristics on earnings. In keeping with the limited existing UK literature, we found a clear and wide dividing line between whites and non-whites in simple comparable models. However, in our more complete models, when we accounted for unobservable individual characteristics – an important contribution of this paper – we found a much narrower and subtler dividing line. This suggests that the labour market primarily rewards individual characteristics other than immigration status. This, in turn, facilitates the assimilation of immigrants into the UK labour market. We also found that the lowest paid immigrants, whom are disproportionately non-white, suffer an earnings penalty in the labour market, whereas higher paid immigrants, whom are disproportionately white, do not. Finally, we found less favourable earning gaps for cohorts that witnessed proportionately larger non-white and lower paid white immigration. Description: JEL classification: J24 J31 J61 J71 J82 F22. 2016-11-23T10:01:30Z Self-fulfilling dynamics: The interactions of sovereign spreads, sovereign ratings and bank ratings during the euro financial crisis Gibson, H. D. Hall, Stephen G. Tavlas, G. S. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/38669 2016-11-23T03:21:28Z 2016-11-22T14:41:53Z Title: Self-fulfilling dynamics: The interactions of sovereign spreads, sovereign ratings and bank ratings during the euro financial crisis Authors: Gibson, H. D.; Hall, Stephen G.; Tavlas, G. S. Abstract: During the euro-area financial crisis, interactions among sovereign spreads, sovereign credit ratings, and bank credit ratings appeared to have been characterized by selfgenerating feedback loops. To investigate the existence of feedback loops, we consider a panel of five euro-area stressed countries within a three-equation simultaneous system in which sovereign spreads, sovereign ratings and bank ratings are endogenous. We estimate the system using two approaches. First we apply GMM estimation, which allows us to calculate persistence and multiplier effects. Second, we apply a new, system time-varying-parameter technique that provides bias-free estimates. Our results show that sovereign ratings, sovereign spreads, and bank ratings strongly interacted with each other during the euro crisis, confirming strong doom-loop effects. Description: JEL Classification: E63, G12 2016-11-22T14:41:53Z Class Assignment and Peer Group Effects: Evidence from Brazilian Primary Schools Foureaux Koppensteiner, Martin http://hdl.handle.net/2381/38556 2016-11-16T03:23:04Z 2016-11-15T14:28:22Z Title: Class Assignment and Peer Group Effects: Evidence from Brazilian Primary Schools Authors: Foureaux Koppensteiner, Martin Abstract: Students in Brazil are typically assigned to classes based on their age ranking in their school grade. I exploit this rule to estimate the effects on maths achievement of being in a class with older peers for students in fifth grade of primary school. Because grade repetition is widespread in Brazil, the distribution of age is skewed to the right and hence age heterogeneity is typically higher in older classes. I provide evidence that heterogeneity in age is the driving factor behind the large negative estimated effect of being in an older class. Information on teaching practices and student behaviour sheds light on how class heterogeneity harms learning. Description: JEL: I20, I21 This paper is currently R&R at the Scandinavian Journal of Economics and I will resubmit a revised version by the end of the year. 2016-11-15T14:28:22Z Signaling about norms: Socialization under strategic uncertainty Adriani, Fabrizio Sonderegger, S. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/38510 2016-11-15T03:21:47Z 2016-11-14T11:48:20Z Title: Signaling about norms: Socialization under strategic uncertainty Authors: Adriani, Fabrizio; Sonderegger, S. Abstract: We consider a signaling model where adults possess information about the dominant social norm. Children want to conform to whatever norm is dominant but, lacking accurate information, take the observed behavior of their parent as representative. We show that this causes a signaling distortion in adult behavior, even in the absence of conflicts of interest. Parents adopt attitudes that encourage their children to behave in a socially safe way, i.e. the way that would be optimal under maximum uncertainty about the prevailing social norm. We discuss applications to sexual attitudes, collective reputation, and trust. Description: JEL codes: C72, D83, D80, Z13. 2016-11-14T11:48:20Z Tax Compliance: A Behavioral Economics Approach Gogsadze, Teimuraz http://hdl.handle.net/2381/38500 2016-11-15T03:22:08Z 2016-11-14T10:56:28Z Title: Tax Compliance: A Behavioral Economics Approach Authors: Gogsadze, Teimuraz Abstract: Tax evasion is one of the key challenges for the policy makers. Designing the optimal tax code requires assessment of taxpayers' compliance behavior. Tax rate, detection intensity, penalty rate - are some of the characteristics considered in models of tax evasion. The central question in tax evasion literature is how changes in fiscal policy parameters affect evasion. The literature on tax evasion can be categorized into two broad groups. The first strand of literature is based on expected utility theory (EU) and the second strand approaches the evasion problem from a behavioral perspective. This dissertation uses a behavioral approach to study tax compliance behavior and contributes to the second group of the literature. The second chapter of this dissertation investigates tax compliance behavior of individuals with reference dependent preferences and endogenous reference point. The results are derived for the three personal equilibrium concepts of Kőszegi and Rabin (2007). The effects of tax policy parameters on compliance are found qualitatively similar to the results under EU. Do taxpayers change their tax compliance behavior after the announcement and before the actual enforcement of a new tax rate? This is the central question of the third chapter. Using cumulative prospect theory framework and a reference point adaptation process, the answer is that evasion in the transition period increases following the announcement of the tax rate reduction or increase. An increase in the tax rate increases evasion, whereas reduction of the tax rate reduces evasion in the long run. The final chapter of this dissertation develops a model of tax compliance behaviour with endogenous social norms. The implications of the model are that the tax policy parameters not only shape monetary (dis)incentives for compliance, but also determine the strength of the social norm of compliance. The social norm of compliance is weaker under the higher tax rate and the norm is stronger under the stricter tax enforcement regime. 2016-11-14T10:56:28Z Essays in Development Economics Arshad, Junaid http://hdl.handle.net/2381/38497 2016-11-15T03:22:05Z 2016-11-14T10:36:33Z Title: Essays in Development Economics Authors: Arshad, Junaid Abstract: This dissertation consists of three essays in development economics. The first essay is concerned with competition between two processing mills in the sugarcane market of Pakistan. I develop a two-stage duopsony game where, in the first period, mills fragmentize the market by investing in the procurement logistics and infrastructure to create captive segments in the market. In the second stage, mills take the segmentation given and compete in prices. The model endogenously determines the market fragmentation. In equilibrium, complete segmentation of the market emerges, mills buy cane from mutually exclusive segments of the market. Finally, I show that a binding price floor has no effect on the market segmentation. The second essay is concerned with coordination amongst processing mills. I analyse why sugar mills in Pakistan pay cane farmers by weight instead of sucrose content? I develop a two-stage pricing game. In the first stage, mills choose the price regime: pay by weight or sucrose content. In the second stage, for a given price regime, mills compete in prices. The model suggests that evaporation of moisture increases the effective transportation cost for farmers and hence reduces the competition between mills. Numerical solution to the game generates a coordination game. The fact that mills pay by weight, payoff dominant equilibrium, indicates a collusive behaviour among mills. However, I could not rule out the possibility of historical inertia when parameter values represent the historical conditions of the market. Finally, I suggest a price floor as an equilibrium switching policy. The final essay of this dissertation is concerned with cooperation between rural households. I study informal risk sharing contracts when players' behaviour is motivated not only by their material payoff but also by intrinsic motivations. My results suggest that emotions such as envy, altruism, and intentions work in different directions. Envy and altruism not only reduce the critical discount factor that can self-sustain risk sharing but also make the sharing mechanism more equitable by reducing the number of equilibria in the repeated game. Finally, I study intention based preferences in an infinity repeated psychological game. The main result of the final chapter shows that intrinsic reciprocity based on expectations and intentions can reduce the level of informal insurance by increasing the critical discount factor. 2016-11-14T10:36:33Z Health Care Expenditure and Income: A Global Perspective. Baltagi, Badi Hani Lagravinese, R. Moscone, F. Tosetti, E. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/38400 2016-11-09T03:23:30Z 2016-11-08T15:35:11Z Title: Health Care Expenditure and Income: A Global Perspective. Authors: Baltagi, Badi Hani; Lagravinese, R.; Moscone, F.; Tosetti, E. Abstract: This paper investigates the long-run economic relationship between healthcare expenditure and income in the world using data on 167 countries over the period 1995-2012, collected from the World Bank data set. The analysis is carried using panel data methods that allow one to account for unobserved heterogeneity, temporal persistence, and cross-section dependence in the form of either a common factor model or a spatial process. We estimate a global measure of income elasticity using all countries in the sample, and for sub-groups of countries, depending on their geo-political area and income. Our findings suggest that at the global level, health care is a necessity rather than a luxury. However, results vary greatly depending on the sub-sample analysed. Our findings seem to suggest that size of income elasticity depends on the position of different countries in the global income distribution, with poorer countries showing higher elasticity. 2016-11-08T15:35:11Z Identification and estimation of a large factor model with structural instability Baltagi, Badi H. Kao, C. Wang, F. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/38399 2016-11-09T03:23:29Z 2016-11-08T15:23:50Z Title: Identification and estimation of a large factor model with structural instability Authors: Baltagi, Badi H.; Kao, C.; Wang, F. Abstract: This paper tackles the identification and estimation of a high dimensional factor model with unknown number of latent factors and a single break in the number of factors and/or factor loadings occurring at unknown common date. First, we propose a least squares estimator of the change point based on the second moments of estimated pseudo factors and show that the estimation error of the proposed estimator is Op(1). We also show that the proposed estimator has some degree of robustness to misspecification of the number of pseudo factors. With the estimated change point plugged in, consistency of the estimated number of pre and post-break factors and convergence rate of the estimated pre and post-break factor space are then established under fairly general assumptions. The finite sample performance of our estimators is investigated using Monte Carlo experiments. Description: JEL Classification: C13; C33. 2016-11-08T15:23:50Z The effect of oil price changes on the price of Russian and Chinese oil shares Hall, Stephen G. Kenjegaliev, Amangeldi http://hdl.handle.net/2381/38266 2016-10-28T02:21:56Z 2016-10-27T11:00:17Z Title: The effect of oil price changes on the price of Russian and Chinese oil shares Authors: Hall, Stephen G.; Kenjegaliev, Amangeldi Abstract: Do changes in oil prices have an effect on stocks of oil companies in emerging markets? Do the shares of oil companies in emerging markets react to the price news in a similar way as those of the Western companies? This paper aims to answer these questions utilizing event study techniques. As expected, the results of both parametric and nonparametric tests suggest that the fluctuations in oil prices have an effect on the stock prices. However, an interesting result is that the responses of stocks of Chinese and Russian oil companies are considerably different from the shares of their Western counterparts. 2016-10-27T11:00:17Z "Rule Rationality" Heller, Yuval Winter, Eyal http://hdl.handle.net/2381/38250 2016-10-26T02:24:31Z 2016-10-25T13:32:39Z Title: "Rule Rationality" Authors: Heller, Yuval; Winter, Eyal Abstract: We study the strategic advantages of following rules of thumb that bundle different games together (called rule rationality) when this may be observed by one's opponent. We present a model in which the strategic environment determines which kind of rule rationality is adopted by the players. We apply the model to characterize the induced rules and outcomes in various interesting environments. Finally, we show the close relations between act rationality and "Stackelberg stability" (no player can earn from playing first). Description: Following the embargo period the above license applies. 2016-10-25T13:32:39Z Efficient allocations in economies with asymmetric information when the realized frequency of types is common knowledge Boukouras, Aristotelis Koufopoulos, Kostas http://hdl.handle.net/2381/38237 2016-10-25T02:24:37Z 2016-10-24T15:25:06Z Title: Efficient allocations in economies with asymmetric information when the realized frequency of types is common knowledge Authors: Boukouras, Aristotelis; Koufopoulos, Kostas Abstract: We consider a general economy, where agents have private information about their types. Types can be multidimensional and potentially interdependent. We show that, if the realized frequency of types (the exact number of agents for each type) is common knowledge, then a mechanism exists, which is consistent with truthful revelation of private information and which implements first-best allocations of resources as the unique equilibrium. The result requires the single-crossing property on utility functions and the anonymity of the Pareto correspondence. 2016-10-24T15:25:06Z Ethnic fractionalisation, governance and loan defaults in Africa Andrianova, Svetlana Baltagi, Badi H. Demetriades, Panicos Fielding, David http://hdl.handle.net/2381/38209 2016-10-13T02:23:59Z 2016-10-12T14:13:48Z Title: Ethnic fractionalisation, governance and loan defaults in Africa Authors: Andrianova, Svetlana; Baltagi, Badi H.; Demetriades, Panicos; Fielding, David Abstract: We present a theoretical model of an imperfectly competitive loans market that is suitable for emerging economies in Africa. The model allows for variation in both the level of contract enforcement (the quality of governance) and the degree of market segmentation (the level of ethnic fractionalization). The model predicts a specific form of non-linearity in the effects of these variables on loan default. Empirical analysis using African panel data for 110 individual banks in 28 countries over 2000-2008 provides strong evidence for these predictions. Our results have important implications for the conditions under which policy reform will enhance financial development. Description: The file associated with this record is under a 24 month embargo from publication in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above. 2016-10-12T14:13:48Z The changing face of financial development Demetriades, Panicos O. Rousseau, Peter L. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/38208 2016-10-13T02:23:58Z 2016-10-12T14:05:35Z Title: The changing face of financial development Authors: Demetriades, Panicos O.; Rousseau, Peter L. Abstract: We provide evidence from a large number of countries which demonstrates the changing nature of the finance–growth nexus. Specifically, we show that financial depth is no longer a significant determinant of long-run growth. Instead we find evidence to suggest that certain financial reforms have sizeable growth effects, which can be positive or negative depending on how well banks are regulated and supervised. Description: The file associated with this record is under a 24 month embargo from publication in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above. 2016-10-12T14:05:35Z Violence and Birth Outcomes: Evidence from Homicides in Brazil Foureaux Koppensteiner, Martin Manacorda, Marco http://hdl.handle.net/2381/38178 2016-10-10T11:47:33Z 2016-10-10T11:47:09Z Title: Violence and Birth Outcomes: Evidence from Homicides in Brazil Authors: Foureaux Koppensteiner, Martin; Manacorda, Marco Abstract: This paper uses microdata from Brazilian vital statistics on births and deaths between 2000 and 2010 to estimate the impact of in-utero exposure to local violence – measured by homicide rates – on birth outcomes. The estimates show that exposure to violence during the first trimester of pregnancy leads to a small but precisely estimated increase in the risk of low birthweight and prematurity. Effects are found both in small municipalities, where homicides are rare, and in large municipalities, where violence is endemic, and are particularly pronounced among children of poorly educated mothers, implying that violence compounds the disadvantage that these children already suffer as a result of their households' lower socioeconomic status. Description: Following the embargo period the above license applies. 2016-10-10T11:47:09Z Relative Age, Class Assignment and Academic Performance: Evidence from Brazilian Primary Schools Foureaux Koppensteiner, Martin http://hdl.handle.net/2381/38176 2016-11-09T16:49:21Z 2016-10-10T11:36:34Z Title: Relative Age, Class Assignment and Academic Performance: Evidence from Brazilian Primary Schools Authors: Foureaux Koppensteiner, Martin Abstract: Students in Brazil are typically assigned to classes based on the age ranking in their cohort. I exploit this rule to estimate the effects on maths achievement of being in class with older peers for students in fifth grade. I find that being assigned to the older class leads to a drop in Math scores of about 0.4 of a standard deviation for students at the cut-off. I provide evidence that heterogeneity in age is an important factor behind this effect. Information on teaching practices and student behaviour sheds light on how class heterogeneity harms learning. 2016-10-10T11:36:34Z Developing countries' foreign direct investment and portfolio investment Khayat, Sahar http://hdl.handle.net/2381/38031 2016-09-10T04:02:17Z 2016-09-09T10:54:27Z Title: Developing countries' foreign direct investment and portfolio investment Authors: Khayat, Sahar Abstract: This thesis is a collection of three empirical essays on foreign direct investment and cross-border portfolio investment. The objective of the first essay entitled: "Oil and the Location Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in MENA Countries" is to investigate the effect of oil as a proxy for natural resources and the main location determinants of foreign direct investment. Moreover, this paper examines whether oil as a proxy for natural resources in the host countries alters the relationship between natural resources and institutional quality. The result of the interaction, which is the key interest in this chapter, is robust and undermines the effects of investment profiles on IFDI. Paying particular attention to the degree of outward FDI concentration in developing countries and transition economies, the second essay is titled "Extending Dunning's Investment Development Path (IDP): Home Country Determinants of Outward Foreign Direct Investment from Developing Countries." The aim of the empirical estimates provided in this paper is to investigate the home countries' determinants of outward FDI from developing countries. Results from the paper support the OLI paradigm, the IDP theory. In the third essay, "Cross-Border Portfolio Investment from the Developing Economies and the Top Major Partners, using the Gravity Model", I have applied a new approach to a new panel data set of bilateral gross cross-border investment flows between 37 developing countries and 79 host countries. The remarkably strong results have positive implications for the theory of asset trade. The main result suggests that the positive and significant coefficient of GDP per capita in a destination country can explain a significant part of the Lucas paradox, and supports the reason for developing capital being invested outside the region. Interestingly, geographical proximity is found to exert a significant positive influence on assets in order that investors may seek to diversify their portfolios. 2016-09-09T10:54:27Z Strategic Dimensions of Macroeconomic Policy in OECD countries Mata Flores, Edgar http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37973 2016-08-17T02:26:19Z 2016-08-16T11:05:42Z Title: Strategic Dimensions of Macroeconomic Policy in OECD countries Authors: Mata Flores, Edgar Abstract: This research is focused on the study of international aspects of interdependence between monetary and fiscal policies. Its main objective is to reveal specific measurements and features of the impacts of cross-country and cross-policy spillovers among heterogeneous economies interrelated within networks of commercial and financial exchange. In the achievement of this purpose, our study also contributes to the enhancement of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models by the inclusion of a wider scope of analysis able to address the consequences of regional and global disturbances in the context of a multi-country setting. Other important additions in our international modelling framework, as the incorporation of financial intermediation, also play an important role in the enhancement of its potential as a wide and versatile platform for policy evaluation. With a similar international approach, we also adapt complementary methodologies, as those in the spatial econometrics literature, to scrutinise the effects of national and international cross-policy externalities as the nominal effects of fiscal policies, in particular. By the means of a range of empirical exercises performed with the aid of our resulting body of specialised econometric tools, this study provides valuable insights on policy interactions within and between economies and regions as diverse as those in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. 2016-08-16T11:05:42Z Three Essays in Game Theory Kozlovskaya, Maria http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37957 2016-08-16T02:31:21Z 2016-08-15T12:47:18Z Title: Three Essays in Game Theory Authors: Kozlovskaya, Maria Abstract: This thesis applies game theoretic methods to problems of individual choice and business strategy. It consists of three self-contained chapters. Chapters 2 and 3 explore strategic interaction between agents who are concerned about the social consequences of their actions, while Chapter 4 considers information use by firms who can spy on their competitors. By investigating these diverse topics, the thesis shows how Game Theory can be used to explain and predict outcomes in a variety of real-life scenarios of economic interest. Chapter 2 explores the effect of "other-regarding" preferences on the outcomes of repeated social interactions, modelled as a Prisoner's Dilemma game. The models of inequality aversion and guilt aversion are identified as compatible with the existing laboratory evidence on the game, and a novel experiment is run to test them against each other. The experiment provided support for the inequality aversion model, which shows that fairness is an important consideration in repeated social interaction. Chapter 3 develops a formal theory of moral choice by proving a representation theorem for guilt-averse preferences. In the chapter, an axiomatic approach is used to deduce a utility function which explains how people trade off material and moral incentives. A novel logarithmic utility is proposed, which is grounded in realistic psychological assumptions and accounts well for the existing body of laboratory evidence. Chapter 4 investigates the welfare consequences of industrial espionage by modelling it as an information acquisition game played by duopolists. In the model, firms can acquire information about unobservable demand either by conducting market research, or by spying on their competitors. The chapter shows how the two information sources affect price and quantity decisions taken by firms. It also shows that aggregate profit and social welfare grow with the precision of the intelligence technology in most environments. 2016-08-15T12:47:18Z Behavioural Biases and Contract Theory Foschi, Matteo http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37956 2016-08-16T02:34:27Z 2016-08-15T12:41:15Z Title: Behavioural Biases and Contract Theory Authors: Foschi, Matteo Abstract: This thesis studies how concepts of behavioural biases and bounded rationality affect classical results in contract theory and industrial organization. Chapter 2 studies the concept of naïveté (Strotz, 1956) in a principal agent model. Agents are assumed to be unaware of their true type, and formbiased (naïve) beliefs about it. The latter depend on the actual type of the agent. Results show how the information about agents' true nature, that can be elicited from their beliefs, plays a crucial role in the principal's optimal contracting strategy. In particular, the principal faces a trade-off between exploiting the agent with the most naïve beliefs and designing efficient contracts for the most widespread type of agent, according to her posteriors. Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 analyse models where agents suffer from temptation and self-control problems (à la Gul and Pesendorfer, 2001). Chapter 3 presents a new justification for loyalty schemes in the retailing industry. In the literature, loyalty schemes have been mostly studied as competition devices (Caminal and Claici, 2007) or as ways to increase consumers' lifetime value (Caminal, 2012). This work focuses on how a seller can use loyalty schemes to acquire information about consumers' preferences and gain the ability to perform individual pricing. Finally, Chapter 4 presents a two-period mechanism design problem with no commitment. It shows how the presence of consumers that suffer from self-control problems can explain the existence of entry bonuses paid by the seller to the consumer, regardless of whether the latter makes the purchase or not. 2016-08-15T12:41:15Z Essays on Monetary Policy Transmission: Panel Data Evidence from Korea Lim, Hosung http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37955 2016-08-16T02:33:25Z 2016-08-15T12:34:57Z Title: Essays on Monetary Policy Transmission: Panel Data Evidence from Korea Authors: Lim, Hosung Abstract: The thesis consists of four distinct essays examining different aspects of monetary transmission using firm and bank level data for Korea. The first essay examines the determinants of firms' capital structure using comprehensive Korean firm-level panel data. The empirical results show that small, less collateralised, riskier firms are more dependent on short-term bank finance. Particularly after the currency crisis period, banks have more concerns about firms' profitability and the level of debt in their lending practices, and firms with higher profits or lower leverage have easier access to short-term bank borrowing. When examining the impact of tight monetary policy on firms' external finance, firm size, profitability, and indebtedness have significant role in bank lending channel during the post-crisis period. The second essay examines firms' foreign currency exposure and real exchange rate balance sheet effects on firms' investments using Korean firm-Ievel data. The findings in this paper have helped uncover the elusive real exchange rate balance sheet effect in limited open economy literature. The third essay examines the impact of foreign banks on the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the Korean economy with a specific focus on the lending behavior of banks with different types of ownership. Using bank-level panel data of the banking system in Korea, we present consistent evidence on the buffering impact of the foreign banks, especially foreign bank branches including U.S. bank branches, on the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Korea from the bank-lending channel perspective during the global financial crisis of2008-2009. Finally, the fourth essay empirically analyses availability of credit for small and medium firms (SMEs) based on bank-firm level data, with a particular focus on the credit policy of the central bank of Korea. Its findings can serve as a useful reference for implementing credit policy, which is being increasingly adopted by central banks since the global financial crisis. 2016-08-15T12:34:57Z Three Essays in Green Technology and Environmental Policy Stathopoulou, Eleni http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37773 2016-06-17T02:17:52Z 2016-06-16T09:34:37Z Title: Three Essays in Green Technology and Environmental Policy Authors: Stathopoulou, Eleni Abstract: This thesis comprises three essays on environmental economics and deals with issues such as corruption, emissions leakage and green alliances. Chapter 1 investigates the relationship between corruption and market entry. We show that corruption incentivises firms' entry in the market while an increased number of firms incentivises bureaucrats to be corrupt, in a self-reinforcing manner. Although the applicability of the model can be more general, we focus on the case of environmental regulation and show the positive relationship between corruption and pollution though market entry. In the second chapter, an additional factor which leads to emissions leakage is proposed. In a setting with two countries, when consumers in one country care only about domestic emissions, emissions leakage arises since demand for the good that is produced in that country using a greener technology is shifted abroad where production takes place with the dirtiest technology. Next, I consider the global environmental consciousness scenario i.e., consumers in that country now care about both the domestic and foreign emissions. In this case, foreign pollution is mitigated and leakage is diminished. In the last chapter, I examine green alliances, the partnerships between a firm and an environmental group. In this model, the environmentalists have two options: to either act against the firm which implies shrinking the demand that the firm faces or join forces with it by reducing the cost of implementing a greener technology. The group's decision is affected by an environmental tax set by the government and by extension it impacts firm's choices on output and emission intensity. It is shown that higher taxation makes the conflict scenario more likely to happen, implying that collaboration and a more stringent environmental policy are substitutes. This identifies a previously unexplored, possibly adverse effect of public policy on environmental quality. 2016-06-16T09:34:37Z Endogenous Market Structure, Occupational Choice, and Growth Cycles Varvarigos, Dimitrios Gil-Molto, Maria José http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37756 2016-06-15T02:16:19Z 2016-06-14T14:04:50Z Title: Endogenous Market Structure, Occupational Choice, and Growth Cycles Authors: Varvarigos, Dimitrios; Gil-Molto, Maria José Abstract: We model an industry that supplies intermediate goods in a growing economy. Agents can choose whether to provide labor or to become firm owners and compete in the industry. The idea that entry is determined through occupational choice has major implications for the economy's dynamics. Particularly, the results show that economic dynamics are governed by endogenous volatility in the determination of both the number of industry entrants and in the growth rate of output. Consequently, we argue that occupational choice and the structural characteristics of the endogenous market structure can act as both the impulse source and the propagation mechanism of economic fluctuations. 2016-06-14T14:04:50Z Corruption, fertility, and human capital Varvarigos, Dimitrios Arsenis, Panagiotis http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37755 2016-06-15T02:16:34Z 2016-06-14T13:58:11Z Title: Corruption, fertility, and human capital Authors: Varvarigos, Dimitrios; Arsenis, Panagiotis Abstract: We build an overlapping generations model in which reproductive households face a child quantity–child quality trade-off and bureaucrats are delegated with the task of delivering public services that support the accumulation of human capital. By integrating the theoretical analyses of endogenous growth, corruption and fertility choices, we show that the negative relation between fertility and economic development may also be affected by differences in the magnitude of bureaucratic corruption. Description: The file associated with this record is under a 36-month embargo from publication in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above. 2016-06-14T13:58:11Z A Representation Theorem for Guilt Aversion Jensen, Martin Kaae Kozlovskaya, Maria http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37750 2016-06-14T12:11:38Z 2016-06-14T12:11:08Z Title: A Representation Theorem for Guilt Aversion Authors: Jensen, Martin Kaae; Kozlovskaya, Maria Abstract: Guilt aversion has been shown to play an important role in economic decision-making. In this paper, we take an axiomatic approach to guilt by deducing a utility representation from a list of easily interpretable assumptions on an agent's preferences. It turns out that our logarithmic representation can mitigate the problem of multiplicity of equilibria to which psychological games are prone. We apply the model in three well-known games and show that its predictions are consistent with experimental observations. Description: The file associated with this record is under a 36-month embargo from publication in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above. 2016-06-14T12:11:08Z Aggregative Games Jensen, Martin K. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37748 2016-06-14T11:57:20Z 2016-06-14T11:55:38Z Title: Aggregative Games Authors: Jensen, Martin K. Editors: Marini, M.; Corchon, L. Description: The file associated with this record is under embargo while permission to archive is sought from the publisher. The full text may be available through the publisher links above. 2016-06-14T11:55:38Z Afriat's Theorem and Samuelson's 'Eternal Darkness' Polisson, Matthew Renou, Ludovic http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37746 2016-06-15T02:16:04Z 2016-06-14T11:40:05Z Title: Afriat's Theorem and Samuelson's 'Eternal Darkness' Authors: Polisson, Matthew; Renou, Ludovic Abstract: Suppose that we have access to a finite set of expenditure data drawn from an individual consumer, i.e., how much of each good has been purchased and at what prices. Afriat (1967) was the first to establish necessary and sufficient conditions on such a data set for rationalizability by utility maximization. In this note, we provide a new and simple proof of Afriat's Theorem, the explicit steps of which help to more deeply understand the driving force behind one of the more curious features of the result itself, namely that a concave rationalization is without loss of generality in a classical finite data setting. Our proof stresses the importance of the non-uniqueness of a utility representation along with the finiteness of the data set in ensuring the existence of a concave utility function that rationalizes the data. Description: The file associated with this record is under a 36-month embargo from publication in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above. 2016-06-14T11:40:05Z Speculative Profits, Innovation and Growth Zanchettin, Piercarlo Denicolo, Vincenzo http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37743 2016-12-02T11:48:05Z 2016-06-14T10:39:08Z Title: Speculative Profits, Innovation and Growth Authors: Zanchettin, Piercarlo; Denicolo, Vincenzo Abstract: When technological change affects the prices of tradeable assets, innovators can obtain speculative profits by exploiting their inside information as to the occurrence of innovations. We propose a tractable model of endogenous growth that formalizes this argument, originally due to Hirshleifer (1971). We then use the model to assess two claims advanced by Hirshleifer, namely, that speculative profits can generate excessive investment in R&D when they add to monopoly rents guaranteed by patent protection, or else even in a perfectly competitive economy. The analysis confirms the first claim, but casts doubts on the second one. Description: The file associated with this record is under a 24-month embargo from publication in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above. 2016-06-14T10:39:08Z The Educational Consequences of Language Proficiency for Young Children Ohinata, Asako van Ours, Jan C. Yao, Yuxin http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37727 2016-12-02T11:10:28Z 2016-06-08T14:47:54Z Title: The Educational Consequences of Language Proficiency for Young Children Authors: Ohinata, Asako; van Ours, Jan C.; Yao, Yuxin Abstract: Our paper studies the educational consequences of language proficiency by investigating the relationship between dialect-speaking and academic performance of 5-6 year old children in the Netherlands. We find that dialect-speaking has a modestly negative effect on boys' language test scores. In addition, we study whether there are spillover effects of peers' dialect-speaking on test scores. We find no evidence for spillover effect of peers' dialect-speaking. The test scores of neither Dutch-speaking children nor dialect-speaking children are a affected by the share of dialect-speaking peers in the classroom. Description: The file associated with this record is under a 36-month embargo from publication in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above. 2016-06-08T14:47:54Z Information Use and Acquisition in Price-Setting Oligopolies Wallace, Chris Myatt, David P. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37724 2016-11-15T10:27:49Z 2016-06-08T14:01:51Z Title: Information Use and Acquisition in Price-Setting Oligopolies Authors: Wallace, Chris; Myatt, David P. Abstract: Asymmetric price-setting multi-product suppliers have access to multiple sources of information about demand conditions, where the publicity of each source corresponds to the cross-industry correlation of signals received from it. A signal's influence on suppliers' prices is increasing in its publicity as well as in its precision. The emphasis on relatively public information is stronger for smaller suppliers who control narrower product portfolios. When information is endogenously acquired, suppliers listen to only a subset of information sources. This subset is smaller when products are less differentiated and when the industry is less concentrated. Smaller suppliers focus attention on fewer information sources. The inefficiencies arising from information acquisition and use are identified. The associated externalities depend upon the extent of product differentiation, the concentration of the industry, and the degree of decreasing returns to scale. Description: The file associated with this record is under a 24-month embargo from publication in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above. 2016-06-08T14:01:51Z Essays in Motivation Smithers, Samuel Francis Terry http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37707 2016-06-09T02:18:07Z 2016-06-08T10:09:20Z Title: Essays in Motivation Authors: Smithers, Samuel Francis Terry Abstract: This thesis consists of three self-contained papers developing the idea of goal setting, an intrinsic motivator, as an alternative motivator to monetary incentives. A non-binding goal is a specific, challenging target with which there are no monetary rewards or punishments associated with success or failure. Chapter 2 focuses on studying the basis of goal setting, developing an experiment to test the effectiveness that assigning non-binding goals have on effort on a real effort task. It shows that setting a goal has a significant impact upon effort and that it is the result of both an increase in speed and accuracy. Chapter 3 develops the first chapter further into a dynamic setting, focusing on comparing whether personalised goals are more effective than uniform goals. I find that personalised goals lead to a significantly higher number of attempts than a uniform goal level, however these extra attempts are not converted into statistically higher number of correct answers over the uniform goals group. Thus, if production is costly, a uniform goal level is more appropriate as a personalised goal would lead to higher average production costs. Chapter 4 examines the effect of setting both assigned and personal (self-set) non-binding goals on a real effort task. Developing a simple model with goal-dependent preferences, we derive a set of conjectures for our experiment. In line with previous studies, we find that goal setting leads to a higher average level of effort. However, we also find that previously assigned goals affect agents' goal commitment, affecting future performance. We also observe that those with only personal goals perform worse on average than a control group with no goals. This suggests that there may be a form of crowding-out of effort on the task when under personal goals versus no goals at all. 2016-06-08T10:09:20Z Removing Specification Errors from the Usual Formulation of Binary Choice Models Swamy, P. A. V. B. Chang, I-Lok Mehta, Jatinder S. Greene, William H. Hall, Stephen G. Tavlas, George S. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37694 2016-06-08T02:15:59Z 2016-06-07T12:20:01Z Title: Removing Specification Errors from the Usual Formulation of Binary Choice Models Authors: Swamy, P. A. V. B.; Chang, I-Lok; Mehta, Jatinder S.; Greene, William H.; Hall, Stephen G.; Tavlas, George S. Abstract: We develop a procedure for removing four major specification errors from the usual formulation of binary choice models. The model that results from this procedure is different from the conventional probit and logit models. This difference arises as a direct consequence of our relaxation of the usual assumption that omitted regressors constituting the error term of a latent linear regression model do not introduce omitted regressor biases into the coefficients of the included regressors. 2016-06-07T12:20:01Z How do Financial Intermediaries Create Value in Security Issues? Adriani, Fabrizio Deidda, Luca G. Sonderegger, Silvia http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37681 2016-06-02T02:16:32Z 2016-06-01T13:30:58Z Title: How do Financial Intermediaries Create Value in Security Issues? Authors: Adriani, Fabrizio; Deidda, Luca G.; Sonderegger, Silvia Abstract: We study incentive provision in a model of securities issuance with an informed issuer and uninformed investors. We show that the presence of an informed intermediary may increase surplus even if we allow for collusion between the intermediary and the issuer. Collusion is neutralized by introducing a misalignment between the interests of the issuer and those of the intermediary. To achieve this, the intermediary commits to hold some of the securities. The intermediary then underprices the remaining securities and extracts any investor surplus through a "participation fee." We provide an explanation for the diffusion of book building and quid pro quo practices in Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). 2016-06-01T13:30:58Z An Ordinal Game Theory Approach to the Analysis and Selection of Partners in Public–Private Partnership Projects Ouenniche, Jamal Boukouras, Aristotelis Rajabi, Mohammad http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37566 2016-05-17T02:08:49Z 2016-05-16T11:57:59Z Title: An Ordinal Game Theory Approach to the Analysis and Selection of Partners in Public–Private Partnership Projects Authors: Ouenniche, Jamal; Boukouras, Aristotelis; Rajabi, Mohammad Abstract: Nowadays, public–private partnership projects have become a standard for delivering public services in both developed and developing countries. In this paper, we are concerned with the analysis of private sector proposals and the selection of the private sector partner to whom to award the contract. To the best of our knowledge, this problem has not been addressed within a game theory framework. To fill this gap, we model this decision problem as a static non-cooperative game of complete information and propose a new ordinal game theory algorithm for finding an optimal generalized Nash equilibrium. The proposed algorithm determines a single ranking of proposals or bidders that takes account of multiple performance criteria and reflects both the public sector and the private sector perspectives, and can handle any number of private sector players and any number of contractual terms. An illustrative scenario is provided to guide the reader through the workings of the proposed ordinal game theory algorithm. The proposed ordinal game theory-based analysis framework can be used by the private sector to analyse any set of potential proposals most likely to be submitted by bidders and to assist with the choice of bidding strategies, and by the public sector player to analyse any set of potential proposals most likely to be submitted under any set of contractual terms and to assist with the choice of a realistic set of contractual terms and their performance measures. 2016-05-16T11:57:59Z Voting as a signaling device Aytimur, R. Emre Boukouras, Aristotelis Schwager, Robert http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37565 2016-05-17T02:08:01Z 2016-05-16T11:45:02Z Title: Voting as a signaling device Authors: Aytimur, R. Emre; Boukouras, Aristotelis; Schwager, Robert Abstract: In this paper, citizens vote in order to influence the election outcome and in order to signal their unobserved characteristics to others. The model is one of rational voting and generates the following predictions: (i) The paradox of not voting does not arise, because the benefit of voting does not vanish with population size. (ii) Turnout in elections is positively related to the importance of social interactions. (iii) Voting may exhibit bandwagon effects and small changes in the electoral incentives may generate large changes in turnout due to signaling effects. (iv) Signaling incentives increase the sensitivity of turnout to voting incentives in communities with low opportunity cost of social interaction, while the opposite is true for communities with high cost of social interaction. Therefore, the model predicts less volatile turnout for the latter type of communities. 2016-05-16T11:45:02Z Cultural norms, the persistence of tax evasion, and economic growth Varvarigos, Dimitrios http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37537 2016-11-24T16:03:59Z 2016-05-13T11:28:55Z Title: Cultural norms, the persistence of tax evasion, and economic growth Authors: Varvarigos, Dimitrios Abstract: I study the effects of tax evasion on economic growth by focusing on the cultural aspects of tax compliance and their effect on the extensive margin of tax evasion. A cultural norm that determines the contemptibility of tax dodging practices links the past incidence of tax evasion with the tax payers' current incentives to conceal sources of income. This dynamic complementarity may lead to multiple equilibria in the evolution of tax evasion. Due to the latter's effect on capital accumulation, this multiplicity may lead economies in divergent development paths, as long as they differ in the initial magnitude of tax evasion. This happens even though economies may be, on the outset, identical in terms of capital stock and structural characteristics, including those that govern tax enforcement. Description: The file associated with this record is under an 12-month embargo from the date of publication, in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above. 2016-05-13T11:28:55Z Essays in Game Theory Rigos, Alexandros http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37520 2016-05-13T02:14:32Z 2016-05-12T11:18:16Z Title: Essays in Game Theory Authors: Rigos, Alexandros Abstract: This thesis explores interactions among agents whose rationality is bounded in distinct ways. It consists of three self-contained chapters/papers. Chapters 2 and 3 consider myopic and hard-wired strategy revisions based on evolutionary game dynamics, while Chapter 4 deals with rationally inattentive agents who acquire costly information in a flexible manner. The thesis, thus, spans two extremes of the range of models with boundedly rational agents. The first paper proposes a novel way to formalize matching mechanisms in evolutionary games. The proposed formalization nests group selection models such as the haystack (Maynard Smith, 1964) and trait-group models (Wilson, 1975). It is shown that evolutionary optima can be obtained as Nash equilibria under appropriately defined matching rules. In the second paper matching rules are endogenized and the co-evolution of cooperation and matching is studied in social dilemma situations. It turns out that only full-or-null assortativity levels are evolutionarily stable. The extent to which efficient outcomes are achieved by this endogenization process is evaluated, which crucially depends on the structure of the particular interaction considered. The third paper extends recent models of flexible information acquisition to an uncountable-action-space setting: a beauty contest coordination game. Necessary conditions for the existence of equilibria with well-behaved strategies are derived. It is established that affine equilibria exist only if the fundamental is normally distributed. A higher coordination motive, a more concentrated prior distribution of the fundamental and higher information costs lead to less attention being paid to the fundamental. Moreover, flexible information acquisition technology is shown to result in equilibrium multiplicity under certain parameter combinations. 2016-05-12T11:18:16Z Empirical analysis of technical trading behaviour, margin trading, and market reaction to news in futures market Liu, Guanqing http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37509 2016-05-12T02:14:46Z 2016-05-11T13:04:33Z Title: Empirical analysis of technical trading behaviour, margin trading, and market reaction to news in futures market Authors: Liu, Guanqing Abstract: This thesis comprises three chapters. It focuses on a unique dataset of the full trans- action records of traders in the Chinese futures market. Empirical techniques are used to analyse technical trading behaviour, margin trading, and market reactions to news in this market. Chapter 1, "Technical Trading Behaviour: Evidence from Chinese Futures Market", creates a new computational method to capture technical trading behaviour and finds technical trader's strategies can be classified in to 11 groups in Chinese rebar futures market. We use a simple model with macroeconomic news to filter pure technical traders from the unique data. Based on the estimation of 81000 technical trading rules, we find the potential technical strategies of each trader and we use K-means clustering algorithm to classify them. The coordinates of each cluster summarize the technical trading characteristics of members in each group. High percentage of traders in each group would apply the similar and corres- ponding strategies; Chapter 2, "Margin Trading: Hedonic Returns and Real Losses", focus on margin trading in the Chinese rebar futures market. We find market parti- cipants have a positive chance of a large gain and a large chance of a small limited loss under the mechanism. This kind of hedonic returns looks like that of people who play in a casino or buy lottery tickets. According to the unique dataset, we show that both expected and observed losses are substantial and that the optimal portfolio never contains rebar futures. Based on the analysis of traders' behaviour, we indicate that it is hard to rationalise their trading without a hedonic motive. Their trading behaviour can be easily understood as form of entertainment, such as gambling; Chapter 3, "The Influence of Scheduled Macroeconomic Announcements on the Futures Market: Evidence from Commodity Futures in China", is a com- prehensive empirical analysis of the overall Chinese futures market, which covers 23 commodities futures to observe the relationship between futures and scheduled macroeconomic news. We find the scheduled news affect commodity futures around 20 days before the announcements date and the following adjustment needs several days around the announcement date to be absorbed. Different kinds of commodities futures have different sensitivity levels to the scheduled news and this sensitivity does not depend on the trading activity. We also indicate the influence of scheduled news can happen in any stages of a business cycle. We finally use 36070 traders in the unique data to prove that market participants cannot make excess returns by following macroeconomics news in Chinese futures market. 2016-05-11T13:04:33Z Essays on optimal inflation targeting forecast based rules and inflation modelling under uncertainty Abdelsalam, Mamdouh Abdelmoula Mohamed http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37424 2016-04-22T02:05:36Z 2016-04-21T10:20:43Z Title: Essays on optimal inflation targeting forecast based rules and inflation modelling under uncertainty Authors: Abdelsalam, Mamdouh Abdelmoula Mohamed Abstract: This thesis focuses on exploring the most efficient forecast based rules for Inflation Targeting (IT) regime; modelling and forecasting inflation. Therefore, it is divided into four empirical chapters after the introduction as the first chapter follows the second chapter explores the most efficient alternative forecast based rules in the context of an estimated Global Projection Model for the Egyptian Central Bank's IT period. In addition to the traditional Inflation Forecast Based (IFB) rule, the chapter augments this rule with other variables like the expected exchange rate or output gap or both. Also, it proposes a structural Backward-Forward rule (BF) which implies more dynamics for the monetary policy rule and it encompasses other common rules. The third chapter discusses modelling and forecasting inflation from Phillips Curve (PC) under misspecification. It considers various econometric specifications, estimation methods, and different measures of business cycles. Then, we propose a Time Varying Coefficient Phillips Curve (TVCPC) which is more sophisticated and informative and, also, it acts as a tool to make the gap between the actual specification and the estimated one as small as possible. The fourth chapter considers: modelling the density of quarterly inflation by using a time-varying higher order moment's model developed by Leon, Rubio, and Serna (2005); and isolating the time-varying conditional correlations between inflation and both the growth in domestic credit and the real exchange rate by using two multivariate GARCH models. The fifth chapter focuses on improving inflation forecasts through combining some linear and non-linear models by using both traditional and other proposed sophisticated time varying combination approaches. We find that the BF rule is the superior welfare policy under all policy scenarios. With regard to the IFB rule, we conclude that: the augmented versions with the expected exchange rate are preferable to the IFB rule; the Time Varying Coefficient Phillips Curve with HP output gap (TVCPC_HP) produces the best forecasting accuracy; and models with time-invariant volatility, skewness and kurtosis are inferior to the models with time-varying higher order moments. Moreover, in comparison to static models, dynamic multivariate models can provide rich information related to inflation dynamics and forecasts. Further, the proposed time varying combination approaches dominate all individual models and all other static combination schemes. 2016-04-21T10:20:43Z Probability weighting functions Dhami, S. al-Nowaihi, Ali http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37298 2016-04-15T02:09:10Z 2016-04-14T09:54:57Z Title: Probability weighting functions Authors: Dhami, S.; al-Nowaihi, Ali Editors: Cochran, J. J. Abstract: Expected utility (EU) theory is unable to accommodate the observed nonlinear weighting of probabilities. We outline three stylized facts on nonlinear weighting that a theory of risk must ideally address. These are that people overweight small probabilities and underweight large ones (S1), do not choose stochastically dominated options when such dominance is obvious (S2), and ignore very small probabilities and code extremely large probabilities as one (S3). We then show that the concept of a probability weighting function (PWF) is crucial in addressing S1–S3. A PWF is not, however, in itself, a theory of risk. PWFs need to be embedded within some theory of risk in order to have significant predictive content. The two main alternative theories that are relevant in this regard are rank-dependent utility (RDU) and cumulative prospect (CP) theory. RDU and CP explain S1, S2 but not S3. We outline the recent proposal of al-Nowaihi and Dhami for composite prospect (CPP) theory that uses the composite Prelec probability weighting function (CPF). CPF is axiomatically founded, is flexible, and, is parsimonious. CPP can explain all three stylized facts S1, S2, and S3. 2016-04-14T09:54:57Z Essays on Exchange Rates Behaviour Haghpanahan, Houra http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37226 2016-04-12T02:27:54Z 2016-04-11T09:12:50Z Title: Essays on Exchange Rates Behaviour Authors: Haghpanahan, Houra Abstract: This thesis aims to investigate the exchange rate behaviour and its abnormal movements. By doing so, I introduce a novel instrument which contributes to analyse the exchange rate behaviour. I then apply the new instrument, called wavelet analysis, to investigate the relation of exchange rate to price ratio (PPP proposition) and the relation of exchange rate and interest rates (UIRP proposition). Finally, I concentrate on the specific movements in exchange rate that leads to currency crises. The second chapter introduces wavelet analysis which has been extensively applied to many situations with favourable results. Many researchers are expanding wavelet application in a variety of fields such as signal processing, physics and astronomy. It has remarkable potential properties that can be applied in the disciplines of economics and financial. The first attempt of this chapter is to introduce wavelet analysis in an intuitive manner. The next step involves reviewing the potential and possible contributions of wavelet analysis in empirical economic and finance literature. I also examine the validity of short-run and long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis applying wavelet analysis. The results indicate that the impact of price ratio on exchange rates are positive and close to unity. The findings confirm that the PPP holds for long-run horizon. The third chapter deals with examining the relationship between spot exchange rates and the interest rate differentials (UIRP) for ten bilateral currencies against the Pound Sterling in short and long time horizons, simultaneously. The distinguishing feature of this study is to apply wavelet transform to decompose the time series into short-run and long-run time horizons. I find out both negative and positive relationships between exchange rates and interest rate differentials. The former is supported by the fixed-price model in short-run and the latter is supported by flexible-price model in long-run. In the forth chapter, I evaluate the potential leading indicators of a currency crash by applying a quarterly panel of 26 developing and developed countries. I split the definition of currency crashes according to different generations of the currency crises in the literature. Based on two different definitions, I use two binomial logit models, which provide estimations of the probability of a currency crash occurring. The empirical results reveal that domestic credit growth rate, ratio of reserves to GDP, current account, output growth rate, and ratio of national debt to GDP are consistently associated with the early warning theory. According to definitions provided by this chapter, the findings show that current account and GDP growth rate in the developing countries and current account and national debt in the developed countries are significantly related to the crash incident. This chapter also criticizes the previous papers for their construction of exchange rate overvaluation indicator and proposes a recursive Kalman filter to express overvaluation. The findings confirm that overvaluation of exchange rate is not an appropriate predictor of currency crashes unlike previous studies. 2016-04-11T09:12:50Z Non-normality, uncertainty and inflation forecasting: an analysis of china's inflation Wu, Yinkai http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37175 2016-04-07T02:26:45Z 2016-04-06T15:37:32Z Title: Non-normality, uncertainty and inflation forecasting: an analysis of china's inflation Authors: Wu, Yinkai Abstract: Economic forecasting is important because it can affect the decision making processes of individuals, firms and governments so as to affect their behaviours. In this thesis, I discuss different methodologies for forecasting and forecast evaluation. I also discuss the role of assumption of normality and the role of uncertainty in economic forecasting. The first chapter is the introduction of the thesis. In second chapter, I conduct a Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the performances of forecast combination and the forecast encompassing test under the forecast errors non-normality. In third chapter, I examines the relationship between inflation forecast uncertainties and macroeconomic uncertainty for China by using different measures of uncertainties. I also investigate the relationship between inflation forecast uncertainties and inflation itself. In fourth chapter, I compute the probabilities of deflation for China by applying density forecast based on the theories and methodologies from previous two chapters. Particularly, I construct density forecasts for different forecast horizons by a joint distribution using Student-t copula. The fifth chapter is conclusion. 2016-04-06T15:37:32Z A simple model of homophily in social networks Currarini, Sergio Matheson, Jesse Vega-Redondo, Fernando http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37110 2016-12-13T16:44:48Z 2016-04-01T12:59:45Z Title: A simple model of homophily in social networks Authors: Currarini, Sergio; Matheson, Jesse; Vega-Redondo, Fernando Abstract: Biases in meeting opportunities have been recently shown to play a key role for the emergence of homophily in social networks (see Currarini, Jackson and Pin 2009). The aim of this paper is to provide a simple microfoundation of these biases in a model where the size and typecomposition of the meeting pools are shaped by agents' socialization decisions. In particular, agents either inbreed (direct search only to similar types) or outbreed (direct search to population at large). When outbreeding is costly, this is shown to induce stark equilibrium behavior of a threshold type: agents "inbreed" (i.e. mostly meet their own type) if, and only if, their group is above certain size. We show that this threshold equilibrium generates patterns of in-group and cross-group ties that are consistent with empirical evidence of homophily in two paradigmatic instances: high school friendships and interethnic marriages. Description: JEL Classification: D7, D71, D85, Z13.; The file associated with this record is embargoed until 24 months after the date of publication. The final published version may be available through the links above. 2016-04-01T12:59:45Z A Method for Measuring Treatment Effects on the Treated without Randomization Swamy, P. A. V. B. Hall, Stephen Tavlas, G. S. Chang, I. L. Gibson, H. D. Greene, W. H. Mehta, J. S. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37057 2016-12-10T03:45:09Z 2016-03-15T14:18:21Z Title: A Method for Measuring Treatment Effects on the Treated without Randomization Authors: Swamy, P. A. V. B.; Hall, Stephen; Tavlas, G. S.; Chang, I. L.; Gibson, H. D.; Greene, W. H.; Mehta, J. S. Abstract: This paper contributes to the literature on the estimation of causal effects by providing an analytical formula for individual specific treatment effects and an empirical methodology that allows us to estimate these effects. We derive the formula from a general model with minimal restrictions, unknown functional form and true unobserved variables such that it is a credible model of the underlying real world relationship. Subsequently, we manipulate the model in order to put it in an estimable form. In contrast to other empirical methodologies, which derive average treatment effects, we derive an analytical formula that provides estimates of the treatment effects on each treated individual. We also provide an empirical example that illustrates our methodology. 2016-03-15T14:18:21Z Quantile peer effects of immigrant children at primary schools Ohinata, Asako van Ours, Jan C. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/36918 2016-12-08T09:49:24Z 2016-02-29T12:20:53Z Title: Quantile peer effects of immigrant children at primary schools Authors: Ohinata, Asako; van Ours, Jan C. Abstract: We analyze how the share of immigrant children in the classroom affects the educational performance of native Dutch children in primary schools. Using quantile regressions, our paper studies these peer effects at different parts of the test score distribution of native children. After accounting for selectivity in the allocation of immigrant students across schools, we find no evidence for the existence of negative peer effects of immigrant children, either at the median or at other parts of the distribution. Description: The file associated with this record is under a 24-month embargo from publication in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above. 2016-02-29T12:20:53Z Finance is good for the poor but it depends where you live Rewilak, Johan http://hdl.handle.net/2381/36899 2016-02-26T03:28:15Z 2016-02-25T15:29:31Z Title: Finance is good for the poor but it depends where you live Authors: Rewilak, Johan Abstract: I examine whether or not the incomes of the poor systematically grow with average incomes, and whether financial development enhances the incomes of the poorest quintile. Following the methodology of Dollar and Kraay (2002), I find, once extending Dollar and Kraay's data, their findings are robust to the Lucas critique and economic growth is important for poverty reduction universally. However, in comparison to other authors' work I show financial development aids the incomes of the poor in certain regions, whilst it may be detrimental in others. This proposes evidence against a "one size fits all" model adding a further contribution to the literature on financial development and poverty. Description: JEL classification O16; O57; G00 2016-02-25T15:29:31Z Market Ecologies : The Effect of Information on the Interaction and Profitability of Technical Trading Strategies Ladley, Daniel Jackson, A. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/36789 2016-04-25T10:01:05Z 2016-02-18T12:22:20Z Title: Market Ecologies : The Effect of Information on the Interaction and Profitability of Technical Trading Strategies Authors: Ladley, Daniel; Jackson, A. Abstract: Technical trading strategies make profits by identifying and exploiting patterns in market prices—patterns generated by the interaction of market participants. Using a model market populated by individuals using a range of trading rules we show that the presence of technical traders may be beneficial, in some cases reducing volatility and increasing price efficiency. In particular, contrarian traders who base their decisions on high frequency data have the largest positive effect. It is also found that if technical traders condition their actions using 'real time' information, they partially emulate arbitrageurs and make positive profits. Description: The file associated with this record is under a 36-month embargo from publication in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above. 2016-02-18T12:22:20Z The Impact of Government Ownership of Banks, Foreign Capital Inflows and Institutions on Financial Development Nsengiyumva, Justin http://hdl.handle.net/2381/36704 2016-02-13T04:32:35Z 2016-02-12T15:20:45Z Title: The Impact of Government Ownership of Banks, Foreign Capital Inflows and Institutions on Financial Development Authors: Nsengiyumva, Justin Abstract: This thesis consists of three empirical and one theoretical essays on three determinants of financial development (FD) namely government ownership of banks, foreign capital inflows (FCI) and institutional quality. Some research has concluded that government ownership of banks negatively affects their soundness. Bretton Wood institutions have used these conclusions to advocate for state-owned banks privatization. The first essay shows that this research was weak in the way it controlled for fundamental determinants of soundness of banks, and lacked rigorous econometric analysis. With data covering 2001-2011, we show that if there is any relationship between government ownership of banks and their subsequent soundness, it is positive. These results are robust to various measures of FD, institutional quality and econometric approaches. The second essay presents a theoretical model predicting a negative relationship between Official Development Assistance (ODA) and FD when political institutions are weak. The third essay empirically investigates the hypothesis that the effects of ODA on FD are influenced by the level of democracy in recipient countries. Using a panel data for 37 developing countries covering 1980-2005, we apply different econometric approaches (pooled OLS, IV2SLS, fixed effects and dynamic GMM) to show that while ODA is harmful to FD in autocracies it could be effective in democracies. These results are robust to various measures of FD and democracy. The fourth essay is an empirical investigation of the hypothesis that different types of FCIs have different impacts on credit availability in developing countries. Using 5-year average data for 53 developing countries covering 1990-2013 and disaggregating FCIs into their main five types, we apply OLS, fixed effects, and dynamic GMM to show that there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between FDI, debt and equity and private credit while remittances and ODA are not significant determinants of private credit in developing countries. 2016-02-12T15:20:45Z


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The Consequences of a 'War' Paradigm for Counterterrorism: What Impact on Basic Rights and Values?
Laurie R. Blank
Emory University School of Law
August 27, 2011
Georgia Law Review, Vol. 46, 2011-2012
Emory Public Law Research Paper No. 11-166
Emory Law and Economics Research Paper No. 11-113
Policymakers have used the rhetoric of "war" throughout the past century to describe a major governmental or societal effort to combat an evil that threatens society, national security or other communal good. It is both a rhetorical tool and a resource mobilization, and above all a coalescing of authority to meet the challenge, whether poverty, drugs or – most recently – terrorism. Soon after 9/11 made al Qaeda a household word, the Bush Administration characterized U.S. efforts to defeat al Qaeda as the "War on Terror." Here, however, the terminology of "war" goes far beyond rhetoric, resource re-allocation and centralizing of authority. When it goes hand-in-hand with domestic and transnational counterterrorism operations and major military operations, this "war" rhetoric also has significant consequences for the protection and content of basic rights and values.
Indeed, the "War on Terror" rhetoric has facilitated and encouraged the growth of authority without the corresponding spread of obligation. Drone strikes, indefinite detention, prosecution of crimes like conspiracy and material support for terrorism in military commissions – these practices and others raise significant questions about the application of domestic and international law to counterterrorism operations, the long-term impact on executive authority, and the role of national security as a "trump card."
Number of Pages in PDF File: 23
Keywords: war, rhetoric, counterterrorism, law of armed conflict, al Qaeda, civil rights, detention, international law
Date posted: August 27, 2011 ; Last revised: September 27, 2012
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Colorado at Pittsburgh : Travel Analysis
Wednesday Apr 25, 2012 12:35 pm -
Pittsburgh, PA
Odds: Colorado by 1.5, Total Points: 7


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Mongolian Lamb Hot Pot
|Boneless lamb leg
|1 Pound (500 Gram)
|Bean curd cake
|2 , sliced
|White cabbage
|7 Ounce, coarsely chopped (200 Gram)
|Dried rice vermicelli
|3 1⁄2 Ounce, soaked in hot water to soften (100 Gram)
|1 1⁄4 Inch, finely sliced
|Onion spring
|1 , coarsely chopped
|Dark soy sauce
|2 Teaspoon
|6 Cup (96 tbs) (Made From Lamb Leg Bone Boiled With Water)
|Sesame paste
|1⁄2 Cup (8 tbs)
|Fermented bean curd
|2 Tablespoon, mashed
|Light soy sauce
|1⁄2 Cup (8 tbs)
|Rice vinegar
|1⁄2 Cup (8 tbs)
|Chinese rice wine
|1⁄2 Cup (8 tbs)
|Chili oil
|1⁄4 Cup (4 tbs)
|Pickled garlic
|4 Tablespoon
|Coriander leaf
|3 Ounce, chopped
1) Slice and cut thin slices of lamb, retaining some fat.
2) Soak some vermicelli.
3) Roll up the slices and arrange on a plate.
4) In individual plates, arrange the bean curd, and place the soaked vermicelli.
5) Arrange all dips and garnishes in small bowls and place on the table for diners to use and adjust the taste.
6) In a pan, heat all ingredients and bring to boil.
7) Season with pickled garlic and coriander.
8) Finally, pour the rich stock into the soup bowls over the noodles and serve.
Recipe Summary
Rate It
Nutrition Rank
Nutrition Facts
Serving size
Calories 861 Calories from Fat 418
% Daily Value*
Total Fat 47 g72.6%
Saturated Fat 9.9 g49.6%
Trans Fat 0 g
Cholesterol 100.6 mg33.5%
Sodium 3200 mg133.3%
Total Carbohydrates 42 g13.9%
Dietary Fiber 4.2 g16.8%
Sugars 5.6 g
Protein 59 g117.4%
Vitamin A 31.1% Vitamin C 45.3%
Calcium 39.3% Iron 44.7%
*Based on a 2000 Calorie diet


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Category Archives: Vapur in the News
UTAH Outside.com reviews DrinkLink Hydration System
Sierra-at-Tahoe ski resort launches Vapur Hydration Program at Lake Tahoe's South Shore
SOUTH LAKE TAHOE — Committed to sustainability and the environment, Sierra-at-Tahoe is excited to announce a partnership with Vapur®, makers of the flexible, reusable and eco-responsible "Anti-Bottle." The partnership will support Project: Green Sierra, the resort's initiatives for economically friendly and sustainable ski resort operations. rest of article here
How to Pack for a Cross-Country Road Trip
Be prepared for emergencies—especially snack attacks.
Of course we have a spare tire, car jack, jugs of potable water, and a first-aid kit in our trunk. We even have AAA membership. But the thing we've found unequivocally useful on the road, time after time, are snacks. The healthier, the better. Our favorite driving snacks are dried mango, roasted almonds and cashews, buffalo jerky, and Clif bars. Sugary soda is best avoided, so we also take pains to fill and chill two 1-liter Vapur Element collapsible water bottles before setting out.
ASPEN Sojourner- Top Gear (DrinkLink) Pick for Fall Mountain Biking
The DrinkLink simply turns a Vapur bottle into a bladder. Just click the DrinkLink system into any SuperCap Vapur bottle and go from hand-held bottle to hands-free hydration. The DrinkLink system features a user-friendly bite valve for easy drinking, and is equipped with a clip allowing you to keep it close at hand while riding or skinning. As an added bonus option, the quick-flow bite valve also attaches directly to the bottle.
Endearment review- THE MOST VERSATILE HYDRATION SYSTEM
Sportsman's Guide features Mossy Oak bottle
Vogue- Appreciating the Subtle Art of Dressing for Errands
Vapur makes the list in Vogue!
Everyone has that drawer in her dresser filled with random castoffs from her wardrobe, clothes that are cool in and of themselves but just don't seem to mesh with one's day-to-day look. You know them well—those graphic T-shirts, sporty track pants, and oversize sweaters. They're not exactly investment pieces, but they're too good to be out of commission in your closet. What to do with them?


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METRO member institutions located in New York City and Westchester County are eligible to apply for up to $25,000 to fund collaborative projects between two or more institutions. METRO has allocated approximately $70,000 for the 2010 grant cycle. Funding is open for all types of materials including text, photographs, postcards, maps, newspapers, two- and three-dimensional objects, audio, video, etc. You can read more about current 2010/2011 grantees here and download the application for 2011/2012 here.
Watch a 30 minute webinar hosted by METRO on April 5, 2011 about the grant program and process.
METRO will be hosting a webinar titled "Keys to Successful Digital Collaboration on Friday June 3, 2011 with presenter Liz Bishoff. Learn more and register here.


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Gerard Pique felt Barcelona fully deserved to knock Milan out of the Champions League 4-2 on aggregate [12].
"I think we believed we could do it from the first minute," he told ITV.
"Scoring early helped a lot. The atmosphere was amazing. I think we played really well.
"We were a better team than them."
The Rossoneri won the first leg 2-0 at San Siro, but were swept aside 4-0 at Camp Nou.
In the other fixture, Wesley Sneijder's Galatasaray surprisingly eliminated Schalke with a 3-2 win in Germany.
Keep up to date with the latest news and action from Spain's Primera Division with Football Espana - from the team behind Football Italia. [13]


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TRAVELOGUE! Richmond Ballet in China – WEEK 1
June 1st, 2015
Travels in China! Week 1! And check out the photos from our opening performances in Beijing, at the National Centre for the Performing Arts! PHOTOS.
June 1st, 2015
Travels in China! Week 1! And check out the photos from our opening performances in Beijing, at the National Centre for the Performing Arts! PHOTOS.
May 19th, 2015
Last week, we spoke to Ma Cong about revisiting his 2014 work for Richmond Ballet, Lift The Fallen (which premiered almost exactly a year ago) as our professional company prepared to pack their bags for four-city spin around China starting. But not only is Ma one of our favorite choreographers here at Richmond Ballet, he's also been giving us the inside scoop about traveling to China, his home country. There's nothing better than having a local guide! Richmond Ballet (RB): Will you be going to China with Richmond Ballet, and what…
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May 12th, 2015
Stoner Winslett's Own Work and Shakespeare's Timeless Tale of Love and Hate Anchor New Season with Another Memorable Goodbye Richmond Ballet is pleased to announce the line-up for the 2015-16 professional season. After returning from a four-city tour to China, the 2015-16 season will be marked by some of the most popular works in the repertory, complimented by three exciting world premieres. Artistic Director Stoner Winslett's highly successful Windows will be presented on the Carpenter Theatre stage for the first time since 2000, anchoring another standout, full-length repertory program alongside the first…
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May 11th, 2015
On the evening of February 28th, many friends of Richmond Ballet gathered to celebrate our Road to China program in high style. Guests, including Gov. Terry McAuliffe and dignitaries from the Chinese Embassy in Washington, DC, were treated to a special video about this great cultural exchange that we have been working on all year along. In the words of Artistic Director Stoner Winslett, "we are honored to walk this road, and to use dance as our compass and as a means for our heartfelt message, all along this Road…
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May 8th, 2015
A few weeks ago, we took a drone camera for a spin around our rehearsal studio as the company dancers worked on Val Caniparoli's Swipe. Check out this video to see what Swipe often looks like through the eyes of our production staff, from above and from the wings! Made in The USA: Traditions & Innovations, featuring Swipe, and three additional short works, runs May 12-15, at our Studio Theatre. TICKETS START AT $20.00 | Read more about Made in The USA: Traditions & Innovations. Road to China Preview Performances…
Read More →