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tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38309651977880658812017-02-20T23:44:58.313+08:00A PEGGY Method of Stock Market Share Fair Value Target Price IPO DividendUsing Peggy Method and Dollar Cost Averaging to Invest. Bursa Malaysia KLSE KLCI. Add me in your blog and visit me often.PEGGY Methodhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-62433968771202138112017-02-11T11:31:00.001+08:002017-02-11T13:31:12.814+08:00How to Find Stocks to Buy and Grow Our Money
In share trading, I rely a lot on analysts and bloggers who are kind to share.

1)Self research
2)Analyst Reports
3)Bloggers

1)Self
Some are from my own analysis from news and company's annoucement. Eg Boilerm 200% gain, MFCB-WA 100% and still counting where analyst recommended MFCB but I analysed the warrant. TSH more than 100%. JHM after sifu sold, but I hold on because of the analysis that I have done. etc etc etc. etc etc etc etc and many more. Off course, some went into Holland (performed badly).

2)Analyst Reports
Huayang 300%, Freight 200%, Evergreen 200%, etc ect etc etc etc. etc etc many more. Thanks to all analysts. Again, some also went to Holland.

3)Blogger Sifu
First of all, thanks Sifu Icon. He bought JHM at RM0.46 and sold at RM1.28 after 8 months, for big gain of 180%!!

I put into the list at RM0.7x and now is RM2.0x, up 185%. 5% better than sifu.

I have been learning from sifu and started with JHM at RM0.7x because sifu said few words...... "he sold and bought back (due to strong fundamental from the latest financial result). Price already went up more than 50% from sifu cost but it is all about future. Lesson, history = history. Shares trading is about future.

Still got a lot to learn from sifu.
Based on the chart, I think he took 7.5 months. Mine is 8.5 months. Off course sifu is better.
His cost is much lower.
The reason i started JHM also because of his sharing.

But I did better than sifu on only one thing. Sifu sold too early at RM1.28, but I still let JHM in the list because of the potential. Now up more than 60% from RM1.28. He bought into few stocks that performed very much lower than the 60% gain, eg Affin, CIMB, SUPERMAX, etc. If he hold on to JHM like me, he would have made much more.

I guess he is satisfied with the gain he made because price went up too much. I think he made a mistake on looking at "historical price" more than looking at the future.

Sifu is sifu, no way to compete with him. Just like in a car racing, sifu already few laps in front, but only a small mistake he made where I can beat him in the one lap. Just one lap. There are few hundred laps.

Also thank him for Tguan 40% up and Opensys 30%. The Holland stocks are Supermax and DKSL. EG is hanging.

Thank sifu Dummy for AWC 170%, Johotin and Hevea. The Holland stock is COMPLET share.

Sifu dummy is very good in analysis. 2016 everyone made very good profit but he made losses. I think because he didn't do portfolio review. He keep holding unto many stocks that already went up and lack growth. If he have the heart to chop most of his stocks every year that lack growth, his return will be superb.

Thanks sifu Uncle Ben for KESM 90% up and IQGroup 40%.

Thanks Paperplane sifu in giving confidence in KESM.

And many sifu who I didn't have the chance to thank here.

In conclusion, there are many ways to look for stocks to buy. I will not be as good or even near the skill of the analysts and many sifu in terms of analysis, but we must know the basic fundamentals, which are cheap PE ratio and high growth.

If we follow analysts and sifu on all the stocks that we see, we will be buying few hundred stocks.

Sometimes we may dispute with them also, example in the case of JHM sifu sold but I still keep in the list. I ignore analyst recommendation when few of them recommend Bursa shares at RM15.

We can also do our own analysis on stocks that are not covered by analysts or bloggers.

In short, this will be my behaviour if I am new....
1) Follow.
I observe their track records and follow the one with better records. Because I don't know anything.

2)Filter.
I have some basic knowledge. Filter all recommendations and sharings by selecting stocks with better figures.

3)Analyse stocks from others.
From all the recommendations or sharings, analyse their figures. May dispute with them. Make own conclusions and decisions.

4)Analyse on own stocks. Look for stocks from everywhere and analyse them in order to come out with some gems to buy.

5)In-depth analysis
Analyse the stocks. Attend AGM. Meet up with management. Hire professional to assist. Study the industry and economy. Buy a big block of the company. May hire a director to be in the Board.

I think I'm in Level 3, trying to be in the basic of Level 4.

Stock market investment is easy. Don't let some potential losses to stop us. Gains are much much more and more than losses.

Happy Investing.

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PEGGY Methodhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-30605712311906815902017-01-28T19:12:00.001+08:002017-01-30T13:17:33.478+08:00MFCB Warrant, JHM, IQGROUP, EG, KESM, SUPERMAX, TGUAN, OPENSYS, Prolexus, Superlon, BIOHLDG, AWC, BISON
MFCB-WA up 55%
MFCB-WA up 55% from RM0.60 in October 2016 since it is added to the list to RM0.93 now. Still the same news, no further update and still in the list. Refer to the old news in my blog.

JHM up 170%
JHM up 170% from RM0.70x in mid of 2016 to RM1.92 now. Still the same old news and still in the list.

IQGroup up 40%
IQGroup up 40% from Oct 2016. No further news, hold in the list.

EG not much up/down
July 2017 RM0.8x, now also about the same.

KESM up 90%
July 2016 RM5.x, now RM10.26.

Supermax drop a bit.
RM2.1x Sep 2016. Now RM2.08

TGuan up 40%
April 2016, RM3.1x, now RM4.18.
But Newbie got higher % up because he got warrant. Smarter than me.

OPENSYS up 30%
RM0.27. 2nd quarter 2016, now RM0.35. It went up to as high as RM0.41, not a single share was taken out of the list. Too bad.

Prolexus not much up/down
RM1.41 Sep 2016, now RM1.38.
One third of quantity in the list only because was waiting for 2nd half of 2017

Superlon up 30%
RM1.9x May 2016, now RM2.57.

BIOHLDG
Dont know, because got rights issue. Lazy to cumpute and two rounds of entries, one before and one from rights issue.

AWC up 170%
Lost track of date.
RM0.38x, now RM1.06
Quantity not much.

Bison. Should not be compare together with the above stocks because very litle quantity.
Bison up more than 30%, or could be more. Lazy to check.

=======

All the above no action right now, still in the list. As mentioned in previous post, for me stock market is not One Morning One Night. It is long term.

Again, I have mentioned than 20 times, I'm not looking for 5% or 20% upside. But looking for 30%, 50%, 100% or 200%.

Not all stocks were up, some are bad. But generally some stocks gain a lot, and in total can have a good average per year.

Sorry if I have to repeat many times, interested to change from very little profit or loss per year to good profit, some suggestions below:

1)Good fundamental GROWTH stock
2)Low PE ratio would be good.
3)High dividend yield and/or low borrowing are better.

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PEGGY Methodhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-13099928681577700472017-01-14T16:28:00.001+08:002017-01-14T16:28:31.620+08:00Top Picks For 2017
BIOHLDG rights issues have been completed and exicting future ahead. The warrants have been taken out of the list at RM0.095 to RM0.10. Now BIOHLGD-WA share price is RM0.12 with high of RM0.13, no regret. High risk taker will prefer warrant, which was about 50% premium. This is more of a long term decision. I also correctly posted on QL warrant and another warrant high premium few years ago.

For the photo that I have posted, I have not verified on the accuracy because certain target prices I could not search for the report.

Saw many good news posted by many sifu about EG, but EG share price hardly move up. There was one article about high receivables, etc which are bad.

AWC has broken the RM1.00 and some quantities has been taken out of the list at RM1.0x for the sake of phychological price of RM1.00.

Sasbadi stock.
Interested in Sasbadi stock at share price RM1.56 with target price by CIMB of RM2.81 giving the fair value of an upside potential of 80% of the share price. I couldn't find the CIMB report don't know true or not. Saw other reserach reports said the company is penetrating schools with its Lego Robotic lessons. I have observed a school and centre and I know this Robotic classes are extremely in high demand. Whether Malay Chinese Indian parents will send their children to attend. Add on Lego, more will be interested. The classes are always packed. For info, one school without Lego the class conducted in school charge about RM130 per month, 2 hours a week. One centre outside with Lego charge about RM200 per month 2.5 hours a week.

I noticed the Sasbadi PE ratio is quite high and I couldn't find the CIMB report. No action yet.

Zelan stock.
I didn't realised when Zelan share price dropped to RM0.10. If I know I may have bought it and Zelan share price rebounded to RM0.15, giving 50% return within a short period of time.

NO !!!! This is NOT true !!!!

This is the Cannon Behind The Horse talking.

Yes, if I know Zelan drop to RM0.10 I may buy. But I may buy at RM0.12 also. Then drop further I may panic and sell at RM0.095.

I may buy RM0.10 but may have sold at RM0.115 to take profit.

I may have waited for cheaper price at RM0.085 and may not get it.

So many "if" and so many "may". When we look back we always assume that will happen and we talk about it what we could have done. We called this Cannon Behind The Horse, meaning talk about past events. Sorry for Arsenal fans, no offense, but some jokes, all these sound like Arsenal and Arsene Wenger. Arsenal almost bought Messi, Ronaldo, Zlantan, etc.

By the way, Zelan does not fit into the investment criteria, but the buying consideration was merely for trading purposes. Related to Syed Mokhtar, so I'm thinking probably he will not let it down and RM0.10 is a strong psychological level.

JAKS stock.
Few years back knowing JACKS have a lot of projects that would made them busy for many years. Went into the list for small quantity too early and out at a loss. Now JAKS is in the spotlight again. I'll skip this one because couldn't understand clearly their future growth plan.

As mentioned previuosly, now my criteria is more stringent because:
1)I want to be very certain on the future, so that when the price drop I will not panic and take the stock out of the list.
2)in 2016 I have improved on stock analysis and I have more choices to choose from.

It is good that we reflect our pass mistakes and try to improve. One of my past mistakes were because I cut on stocks from the list when I share price dropped due to lack of confidence. For those I have clearer picture, I hold them in the list or add more and turned out to be awesome.

I saw a virtual stock trading competition and many strong sifu participated in the past few years. Select about 5 to 8 stocks and hold for the whole year, cannot sell and cannot buy again. The winners are impressive and some sifu have been consistent for few years.

No doubt those top 20 are good especially some are repeated for few years.
Luck play a part because cannot trade for the whole year. One thing I have observed is almost all top winners have a negative stock for the year. They normally have one or two stocks with very high returns and the others are average or negative.

No matter how good these sifu are, they also make mistake by selecting loss making stocks.

The pattern is quite similar to the track records of my list. Having high return for few stocks and occasionally some loss making. I wish to repeat, upside is unlimited can be 100% 200% or 400% or more, but downside is maximum 100% only. But most of the time the losses are capped at 30% only while at the same time registering many 100% price increase.

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PEGGY Methodhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-80312913470886026582016-12-25T12:17:00.001+08:002016-12-25T15:43:12.510+08:00One Morning One Night in Bursa, EG, Hang Seng Call Warrant, Biohldg, Prolexus, Superlon, Bioalpha
My chinese friends said 一朝一夕 means one morning one night. It means very short period of time. In stock market investment (not trading), the result is not 一朝一夕. That's why many people have given up. Every day look at the screen and feel sad asking why their stocks prices didn't go up and some were down.

We must remember investmemt is not 一朝一夕 yī zhāo yī xī. In cantonese it is pronounced as YatJioYatJic.

Many days ago saw many Hang Seng HSI call warrants suddenly dropped a lot. For sure there will be a lot of losses. Be careful of trading in call warrants especially HSI because of huge premium and you are fighting against time.

If you buy call warrant C hoping market good you make money, and you buy put warrant H hoping to make money when market down, yes sound very easy. BUT, but and but there is something called premium. Most of the call or put warrants are trading at a huge premium. The prices will continue to drop until they reaches expiry, unless there is a very BIG swing up or down in Hang Seng. Another example is C may down 5% a week, but H may up only 2% a week. If you bought correctly you make 2% or 20% for example, but if you bought wrongly you may lose 5% or 23%. Therefore, it is not a 50 50 chance. Be careful.

Read from news that the 3rd quarter "EARNINGS CONTINUE TO BLEED". What it meant was many companies announced bad result. But most of the stocks in my list are performing okay in terms of profits or prices.

EG and Superlon announced normal good result. Prices reacted a bit positive.

BioHldg Bioalpha rights issue ceased trading. It will take many months or couple of years for them to use the money from rights issue to expand and bring in good additional profits.

PrLexus result bad. Price also dropped. The growth will be from the completion of new plants in 2017.

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PEGGY Methodhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-52762893695881215352016-12-03T23:44:00.001+08:002016-12-03T23:44:21.480+08:00Make Money From Stock Market is about FUTURE, and not just past ROI, Cash Flow, Dividend, etc
Sometimes I read a lot of arguements and disputes about who right and who is wrong.

I summarised these people into 3
1)Too much historical FA. HFA
2)Balance Approach- Future and Valuation. BL
3)Simplified Future. SF

HFA
There is one group of people who like Historical Fundamental Analysis. Talking abou net asset per share, PE ratio, dividend, cash, etc. Mostly about historical.
If a company PE ratio is super low, 4 times, a good buy. But what if the profit drop next two years? You may lose money.

If the asset worth RM10 per share, now selling at RM6 per share, good buy. But if profit keep dropping or no increase, we may not make money. Unless we are the owner, we buy at RM6 and then sell the whole company at RM10.

They will show you numbers, then numbers and lastly numbers until your kepala pening "headache".

Don't get me wrong. All these are important. But we should spend more time thinking and searching info about the future. Nobody know about the future. You are half right. If your son is in Form 3, next year in the Future he will be in form 4. But sometimes unforeseen things happen. He decided to stop studying and concentrate on badminton and you got it wrong. We don't know 100% about the future but we can forecast based on information that we have.

BL
Balance. These group of people talk more about future, eg icon sifu. Most of the info he shared are about future, the project, the expansion, the new orders, etc. He shared details things of future. He uses and also shares past records eg profit margin, but is for the purpose of analysing the trend, future and worth. Focus mainly on future. But he doesn't stop there, he also values the stock, whether the current price are expensive. Example no point buying a stock if the profit will grow 100% but the share price is already up 300%. That's why he also touches on PE ratio etc.

Analysts are the same. They forecast and they value. That is why in research report only few simple tables showing some important figures and forecast. They don't much much about ROI, net asset per share, etc.

For me, this is the best approach.

SF
Some just said the stock is good if the profit is growing. This is too simiplied. That is why you can see many stocks 3 months later announce profit up 90% but the share price hardly move within this 3 months, because the stock price already up or PE ratio already very high.

×××××××

Just Vitamin C is not enough, that's why we need multivitamin.

I have attended a 2 full days course on fundamental, it did not benefit me much because they focus too much on cash, dividend, current ratio, etc. I thought that was just one topic, maybe Level 2 talk about Future. I went to chat with them, that's all, they just invest based in historical fundamental. The tutor was also quite surprise on the high % gain my friend made in 2013. I know why, because they focus too much on dividend and stable stock, their return per year will not be high.

Investment is about Future and Valuation. Not just future and not just valuation.

Not to say I am "Mr Know It All", I don't know all and I am learning. But because lack of time, I don't really read those just talk mainly on fundamental. Because I only have 24 hours a day, I focus on those who talk about Future and Valuation.

With this would like to thank all analysts and those who contribution information generously.

Thank you.

PEGGY Methodhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-51502829051768268492016-11-26T15:38:00.001+08:002016-11-26T15:38:13.902+08:00JHM, DKSH, SUPERLON, TGUAN, Opensys, KESM, Oldtown, MBSB, MFCB, MFCB-WA, BioAlpha
Some updates for my personal diary for myself .

JHM
JHM stock announced good result. Big jump from previous quarter. Although revenue dropped a bit from preceding quarter, profit improved due to better margin on product mix. I think short term may not have big push upward, medium term hoping for catalysts from i)new Europe and Japan market profits, ii)aerospace certification and iii)transfering to Bursa Main Market in 2018. The growth is still there, but may need some time. Made another 100% return from a stock and this stock will remain in my list. You can see that I will not take out the stock from my list if made 10% or 20% or even 100%. Make decision not base on %, but the PE ratio and future growth.

DKSH Holdings stock.
Result is bad and DKSH share price down. Few weeks ago I took off OCK and Vitrox from my list. I have forgotten about DKSH.
Poor judgement on DKSH was due to:
i)The guidance of better result from management was wrong. Weak demand recorded.
ii)Reference of good future from a popular blogger was wrong.
iii)I have forgotten to exclude profit from the lost of major telco customer many months ago, which will make the PE ratio high.
DKSH has been taken out from my list. Damages? Less than 10% because the first entry price was low.

Taken out from the list not because of the drop or recent profit, but there is no concrete future growth.

You can see that average down is good only if the future is good. And do not hesitate to take off the stock from our list.

Superlon stock.
Superln as reported saw KWSG emerged as a substatial shareholder.

Thong Guan stock.
TGuan recent result is good and share price has improved.

Some of the growth stories from The Star...
The company is projecting a "double-digit percentage" growth in its revenue and bottom line.

.....He said the strongest growing markets were now in the Philippines, Vietnam and South Korea. The company, he said, is getting strong orders from Japan, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa.

.......On the outlook for the first quarter of 2017, Ang said the group had received enquiries and orders for the new value-added products such as the nano-layered stretch film materials, stretch hood materials, and films for automatic-packing machines.

The future growth is still there, so TGuan stock will remain in the list.

Opensystem stock.
Opensys profit not good. Share price also down. I did not manage to get the reason on why revenue up but profit down except that it was due to currency fluatuation. Will continue to monitor because the customers' orders are still a lot for the coming months.

KESM stock.
Result good but the share price very hard to cross the RM10 consistently. If it crosses, probably another 100% gain for me.

BioAlpha Holdings.
BIOHLDG result as expected, nothing. But it is more for the future after the rights issue. Rights issue has been announced and ex date coming soon. The company will use the proceeds from rights issue to grow.

Mega First Corporatiob Bhd.
MFCB result for me is expected, drop on existing business but made from new hydro plant construction. Not sure how market will react. Past few weeks MFCB share price dropped because of uncertainty after the US Election and the volatility of Ringgit and Bursa Malaysia. I saw high % of its assets are in USD so strong USD should not be a problem. Although the share price was hit badly, now it has recovered nicely.

If we look at MFCB-WA, the price has recovered and went up higher than before it drop.

It is still not too late for those who wish to sell their mothers/cars/houses to sai lang on MFCB-WA. When Chinese friends took me that someone no waist, no backbone and no brain, it doesn't mean that. No waist means the lady's waist is big. No backbone means lazy. No brain means stupid. Sell mother sell car sell house does not mean we sell. Sell mother means sell mother shares (underlying stock). Sell car sell house means invest more after we have sought consultation from Financial Adviser. For more info on MFCB, please refer to my earlier posts.

MBSB.
Also announeced result. No comment.

Old Town stock.
Result not so good. Newbie also doesn't know his Oldtown and other stocks announced result. I don't think he knows how frequent a stock announces result. But he still made good profit.

Once again repeated again and again. It is not difficult to make money from stock market as proven by the stocks sharing here for the past 6 years and Newbie's journey for the past two years. Upside is unlimited and downside is limited. Sometimes we made wrong decisions, but losses are limited.

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PEGGY Methodhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-39361974841966540902016-11-19T15:01:00.001+08:002016-11-19T15:01:48.967+08:00IQGroup, OPENSYS, JHM, Prlexus, Newbie
IQ Group released the financial result, it was okay nothing extraordinary. The stock price also reacted favourably.

Opensys stock price has crossed over RM0.40. Hope can sustain with good financial result.

JHM stock price is strong and people are waiting for their aerospace certification and financial result.

Just got to know besides coldeye, icon also interested in Prolexus.

Update on Newbie.
The day he started until now, the KLCI is down 15%, but his portfolio is up. He was very unfortunate because he started with oil and gas and some stocks that went down due to weak Ringgit. However, he still make profit and he is happy with the profit that he has made.

He has gone through some storms in the stock markets:
Oil and gas crash.
1MDB
Ringgit drop
Britain Exit.
China economy slowdown
Trump US Election.
Etc.

Being new in stock market, with all the storms, he still make profit. I estimated about 10% a year including dividend. Althought not very impressive, but:
i)He is new, lack of knowledge and doesn't bother to monitor his stocks.
ii)Always at the wrong timing and had experienced many storms.
iii)KLCI has dropped 15%.

I would say the performance is quite good. If with some experience and interest, the return could be much higher.

Basic things that he did?
Continue to invest in good fundamental growth stocks.

With this, I would stop reporting newbie journey because nothing much to write. The same old thing: keep investing in good fundamental growth stock and profit will come.

Thanks.

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PEGGY Methodhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-7004330758176885442016-11-12T15:04:00.001+08:002016-11-12T15:12:31.783+08:00Strong USD stocks to buy, Top 30 stocks to buy. So many to choose from
Ringgit weaken again. For those who are interested to know stocks benefited from strong USD or weak Ringgit, refer here.

http://politemarket.blogspot.my/2016/09/list-of-export-counters-for-us-to-buy.html

Saw many people sharing cold eye stocks below. He is one of the famous investors in Malaysia. His name is in many listed companies top 30 shareholder list.

2016年11月5日, 冷眼分享会个股关注名單 ColdEyes Top 30 Stocks Pick:

>RM 3 (高价股)
PERSTIMA, TGUAN, ASIAFILE, TAANN, SOP, UMCCA

RM 1-3 (中价股)
HEVEA, SUPERLN, PENTA, IQGROUP, ECOWORLD, RCECAP, POHUAT, JAKS, MFCB, JTIASA, FREIGHT, PRLEXUS

<RM 1 (低价股)
JOHOTIN, MBSB, OPENSYS, MMSV, SOLUTN, RGB, HOMERIZ, SENDAI, WASEONG, OCK, WCE, WILLOW

Did not monitor all the stocks but noticed that Opensys share price have gone up for the past two weeks. No target price or fair value, will just hold first.

Out of the 30 stocks, I have TGuan, Superln, IQgroup, MFCB, PRLEXUS, Opensys.

MBSB, OCK, RGB, JOHOTIN, JAKS, I was also interested but did not buy or buy more or sold already. Talk about that later.

There are so many stocks in Bursa Malaysia but we have many common stocks. I think our approach is about the same, buying good growth fundanmental stocks.

TGuan, Superln, IQgroup, MFCB, PRLEXUS and Opensys I have shared previously, no need to shared again.

I have MBSB, but little just to join others. Just sold OCK at RM0.8x. I think I have made 100% or more than 90% on this. Lazy to search my entry price and the warrant that I have sold after the rights issue.

Reason for selling? Not that OCK is not good, is one of the strategies that I want to enforce. It is a growth stock but PE ratio not cheap. Also part of my portfolio adjustment. Very hestitate to sell. Those who hold need not worry, will make money from here.

RGB stock, I wanted to buy few weeks ago but didn't really study enough. Missed this because it went up. Blame my laziness.

Johotin stock. Bought and sold with medium profit because at that time didn't know how to get more info. Did not revisit this.

JAKS stock. Bought it because of the future prospect although I don't really like construction stock. Later sold with medium loss because of the fluatution of profit due to the nature of business. I have no holding power, not because lack of money, but because I don't really like construction stock.

That's all for the update.

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PEGGY Methodhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-21862436975967369702016-11-08T09:16:00.001+08:002016-11-08T09:16:22.997+08:00Sell Your Mother, Sell Your Car and Sell Your House. It Is Time To Sai Lang on MFCB-WA
Don't misinterpret, sell your mother means for those who have MFCB mother shares, may work out computation on the potential upside vs risk on the mother share vs the MFCB-WA warrant and see whether MFCB's son the warrant has better return than the mother or not.

It is not literally sell our mothers. We all know we love our mothers.

Sell Your Car and Sell Your House, I copy these phrase from ICON. All these words are a way to say go big into it. It is not literally to sell our cars and sell our houses. Just like the famous phrase "during drop, sarong up". It doesn't mean we sell our sarong to buy durian, it is a way of saying durian is extremely nice to eat.

For more info, please refer to my previous 3 articles on MFCB-WA.

By the way, the above is not a recommendation. Always seek professional advice on shares trading. The above is something to lighten up myself after two weeks of boring market where the Dow Jones index dropped for don't know how many consecutive days.

Have a nice week ahead.

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PEGGY Methodhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-77302277059123122992016-10-30T19:04:00.001+08:002016-11-01T14:07:51.568+08:00MFBC-WA 200% upside, Fibon, PWroot,
As shared in my previous two posts on Mega First Corporation Bhd warrant, bought the warrant at 0.62x and hoping to get 100% or 200% gain. I didnt not make the forecast, but is referring to analyst long term target price.

MFCB latest 4 quarters profit is RM88mil now. Last year the news said ...... enabling annual profit contribution of about RM300 million to the company from the following year (after completion of dam), Executive Director Khoo Teng Kiat told The Malaysian Reserve. Meaning once the dam project completed, big jump in profit.

I saw MFCB early this year. Traded a bit and made small profit. Analyst keep saying good. Newbie also bought it and hold. The reason I sold because once project finished, I thought no more income.

Recently price up a bit. So i went to study again. I found the word "concession". It means after the dam is completed, they will start to sell power generated. Is like collecting toll, long term income for many years. Why I didnt see the word earlier.

I then shared the report with Newbie and he started buying more MFCB. Medium term MFCB target price RM3.16, which is good also. At that time MFCB was RM2.0x only. Then I check whether got warrant or not. I did some calculation on the warrant, wow wow wow!!! It could have more than 200% upside. And I started buying and Newbie sold his MFCB and buy the warrant.

The risk is always something may go wrong. Whatever stocks we buy, also the same. But if this stock perform as per what analyst forecast, then the potential upside is very high.

Price has went up in the past few days. One thing I have to highlight, one of their power operations in China which contributes 70% of their earnings will expire next year 2017. But analyst said in 2022. Maybe they had got the extension. Execution and environmentalist also pose a risk. No worries because their new dam profit will few be folds higher than their current total profit.

More detail, please refer to my previous two posts.

As mentioned earlier, I will not go big in Fibon. It announced some bad result. Sold all. Made a bit from first batch. Lose 10% on second batch. Net still lose few percent. This does not affect my portfolio much because small investmemt. Reason for selling? Same as what I have shared earlier, no concrete growth plan. If no concrete growth plan, why did I buy? Because many people keep saying good got growth, without providing details. Yes, I made mistake by buying little, should not buy at all. But I have improved on this. I posted in my blog, few weeks ago I have already changed my portfolio and strategy, if no details, I will not buy. This Fibon is those left over and also I have decided to add some for long time.

Anyway, small loss on small purcahse nothing much to talk about.

I have forgotten I'm supposed to study more on PWROOT. If good, may start to buy.

This year can be considered a good year. Good gain for many stocks especially JHM and KESM, gained 70% to 80%.

Some stocks making losses but these are very small. The real casualty is Tek Seng.

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PEGGY Methodhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-74259740789161785652016-10-25T20:32:00.001+08:002016-10-25T20:34:07.934+08:00MFCB Warrant Upside Potential table
Update from my previous post. How to read the table.

RM2.23 is MFCB current share price and warrant is RM0.675.

If MFCB up 35% to RM3.00 and the warrant trade at 20% premium, then MFCB-WA will be RM1.40, 107% upside potential.

You can ignore those in blue as I don't think that can be achieved. Because the higher the share price and warrant price, the lower the premium.

MFCB medium target price is RM3.16 given by Public Investment Bank research analyst.

If MFCB up 42% to RM3.16 and the warrant trade at 20% premium, then MFCB-WA will be RM1.60, 137% upside potential.

MFCB long term fair value is RM4.43 given by Public Investment Bank research analyst.

If MFCB up 99% to RM4.43 and the warrant trade at 0% premium, then MFCB-WA will be RM2.23, 230% upside potential.

For those who have lack of long term faith, MFCB at RM3.16 does not look super difficult. Upside potential for warrant will be 137%.

Risk?
As usual, 100% loss. Max.

In stock market, always think big, don't just make 10%. Think 100%

Invest like a businessman for long term.

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PEGGY Methodhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-54010783269726110332016-10-18T19:14:00.001+08:002016-10-19T07:28:56.843+08:00MFCB-WA can up 270% or 140% in 3 years?
MFCB Target Price RM4.43 - exercise price of RM2.20 = RM2.23
Divided by MFCB Warrant price RM0.60 = upside of 270% !!
Medium term 12 months upside is 70% +.
My conservation calculation is 140% upside for 3 years.

Workings:
MFCB have this USD500m (RM2bn) Don Sahong hydropower project which has been on track, reaching 10% completion as of Aug 2016. The deadline to complete the project is31 Dec 2019 while commercial operation is scheduled to take place in early 2020.

Public Investment Bank's analyst said expecting a more than 3-fold jump in earnings.

I also tell you the bad points, may lose 70% of Group revenue (RM51.8 X 70% = RM36.26mil) and diluting with warrants.

2015 net profit RM51.8 million.
1-fold jump in profit RM51.8 million + RM51.8mil = RM103.6 million.
3-fold jump in profit = RM51.8 X 3 + RM51.8mil = RM207.2 million

207.2m - losing 36.26m profit = RM170.94million

Shares issued 401.9m, + warrants 67.3m = 469.2

Earnings per share RM0.364

X 10 times PE ratio = RM3.64

Warrant in the money price = RM3.64 deduct exercise price RM2.20 = RM1.44
Warrant Price now RM0.60.
= 140% upside.

140% is a conservative figure.

For those medium term 12 months MFCB Target Price given by Public Investment Bank RM3.16.
MFCB Target Price RM3.16 - exercise price of RM2.20 = RM0.93
Divided by MFCB Warrant price RM0.60 = upside of 55% in 12 months.
12 months for sure will still trade at premium, so the upside could be 70%.

1)I use fully diluted from warrants.
2)Between now and 3 years later, MFCB may get new projects
3)The China concession expiry in 2022, another 6 years. And they may not lose it.
4)PE ratio is only 10 times. Historical is more than 10x???
5)Analyst said earning more than 3-fold. The above assumption is only 3-Fold.

Public Investment Bank analyst said . . . ..
The Laos hydropower project could fetch as much as RM4.43/share. Upon the full commercial operation of the hydropower plant, we forecast that the Don Sahong Hydropower could contribute as much as RM4.43/share (WACC: 7%) based on our DCF valuation. As of now, we apply a higher WACC of 10% coupled with a 30% discount for the risk exposure during the construction period, which yields a valuation of RM2.26/share. All-in, our SOP-based TP is revised upwards from RM2.29 to RM3.16.

Let's said we don't bother about my own analysis, purely go for MFCB target price of RM4.43 in the future, the potential upside of RM4.43 is a lot.

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PEGGY Methodhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-10550115994911604402016-10-15T16:02:00.001+08:002016-10-15T16:13:15.859+08:00DKSH, Bonia, KESM, Superlon, Ekovest, GBGAQRS, BioAlpha, TekSeng, ICAP, OCK, FIBON, Prolexus, VS, JHM, EG, TGuan, IQGroup, Supermax, AWC, OPENSYS, BISON
Past few weeks busy because was travelling. Quick update.

DKSH stock.
Suddenly the share price moved up. Market said they got contract from big multinational company P&G for Hong Kong. Not sure how it is related to DKSH. I added more.

Bonia stock.
Saw the recommendation but did not buy. Went up about 8%, missed the opportunity. The bosses have been buying and the company have completed many reorganisations.

Superlon stock.
Announced good result but share price dropped. This probably due to the price went up steadily before the result announcement and those who bought for short term are taking profit. I added more.

KESM stock.
Price suddenly went up. Those who sold RM7.50 after the result announcememt just few weeks ago may realise it was a mistake of selling. Now almost RM9. As mentioned in my post earlier, the result was actually not that bad but many people just threw and threw. Happy that my analysis was correct because this year started to do own analysis. Learning new things. No news why suddenly up.

Ekovest stock.
Some recommended on this because they are selling something big that will receive a lot of cash.

GBGAQRS stock.
Someone recommended this at RM0.95, immediately dropped to RM0.86 and now back to RM0.95. The PE ratio is low, price has dropped a lot and got some construction jobs coming. I skip this, not because not good, but too many stocks to read whether it is good or not.

Bioalpha Holdings Stock.
They took over Contant Pharmacy and help to distribute more of their products. Many plans are coming. I'm eyeing this stock, bought small quantity for a start. Now may not be the right time to buy because of execution risk. Bought because let it be in my portfolio so that can start monitoring. Probably after the rights issue. See how first.

Tekseng stock.
Initially they have many orders but I read news that customers cancelled orders so they terminated some staff that was meant for these orders. I sold all because lack of prospect, probably loss 15% on this. A loss is a loss but the damage is not too big because Tekseng was not big in my portfolio. And is only 15% loss. Some other stocks made almost 80% such as KESM and JHM so the damage is minimal. Was I wrong in investing in Tekseng? Some may say why I invested because global and solar bla bla bla. But who will know best on solar? You and me? Analyst? The company boss? SKL? The answer is the company boss. The company boss got it wrong, how am I without deep analysis be better than the company boss? I will classify this as one of those unexpected event rather than blaming myself for wrong decision made.

ICAP stock
Felt like those shareholders being disadvantaged. Past few years the fund is not performing, high proportion is cash and management fee is high. Nothing much the shareholders can do. Why don't they change management company. The company also don't want to do share buyback.

OCK stock.
Market news said Businessman Brahmal Vasudevan may have bought 3% of OCK shares. That's why the share price went up a bit. Now dropped back again.

Fibon stock.
At last added some.

Prolexus stock.
This Prlexus up slowly and steadily again and again. Fortunately I added some as mentioned in my earlier articles. They have some exicting developments next year 2017 where their joint venture, factories and facri mills start bearing fruits. This year Europe cups and Olympics may have pushed up their sales too.

Newbie added VS stock at RM1.3x.

Some quick summary.

JHM CONSOLIDATION BHD.
LED later penetrate Europe and Japan automotive, and also the aerospace. Need Time. Price has tripled this year, probably may not go up fast.

KESM INDUSTRIES BHD.
Internet of Things. IoT.
More cars will have higher value of software inside the car, although car sales slow.
The boss said they are at the beginning of a great journey.
Price has doubled this year.
Past few days price jumped up again.

SUPERLON HOLDINGS BHD.
Good result.
Building new warehouse.
Penetrate deeper in some countries.
PE not high and divided not bad too.

EG INDUSTRIES BHD.
Risky.
So many reports said got potential but no result yet. Taking a risk here.

THONG GUAN INDUSTRIES BHD.
Good demand for their product. May have joint venture with Japan, but will be in the long future.
Price down recently. Still up 30% from few months ago.

IQ GROUP HOLDINGS BHD.
Internet of Things. IoT
Price hardly move. Up then dropped back.

DKSH HOLDINGS (M) BHD.
Their restructuring has been completed. Lost of major customer have been factored in.
Now ready to add in more products into their distribution channel.

FIBON BERHAD
Plenty of cash.
But lack of concrete growth prospect. Many may know the prospect but for me it is stil not convincing for big entry. Cash is a big support.
The boss said despite facing various general economic challenges, the Board of Directors of Fibon Berhad is of the opinion that the performance of the Group for the financial year ending 31 May 2017 will not be severely affected

PROLEXUS BHD
Nike shoe.
Relying on major customer Nike.
2017 will see their joint venture, new factories in Vietnam and Johor starting to bear fruit.
But now price has move up slowly and steadily

SUPERMAX CORPORATION BHD.
Price dropped a lot.
Waiting for rebound.

AWC BHD.
Internet of Things.
IoT.
A lot of long term, eg 5 or 10 years recurring income.
But very complicated, many segments, don't understand their business / growth. That's why not going big.

OPENSYS (M) BHD
Getting a lot of orders for their 2-in-1 ATM & Cash Deposit machine combined.

BISON CONSOLIDATED BHD.
Opening of many MyNews stores. But price went up too fast before could buy more.

BIOALPHA HOLDINGS BERHAD
New market/products.
Start to manufacture some drugs.
Bought pharmacy Constant to help distribute their products.
Rights issue coming. May need to wait till the rights issue over first.

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PEGGY Methodhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-28827273256709610122016-09-24T16:09:00.001+08:002016-09-24T16:09:12.034+08:00KESM good, Steel Companies, PERAK TRANSIT BERHAD IPO Target price fair value, CIMB, PROLEXUS, LBS, Gandang, INARI, Superlon, MBSB, BISON,
This week bought KESM at RM7.7x. After the quarterly result, the share price took a dive from RM8.00 to RM7.52 during the morning session. This was expected because their profit down year on year. I was not panic because I have studied their result, the drop in profit was due to forex, reversal of sundry items last year and tax. All these are exeptions and the core operations profit in fact has increased.

Whatever past is past, I buy shares for the future. What is the future of KESM at KESM share price of RM7.7x?
1)PE ratio 10 times. Not cheap but not expensive

2)Growth?
World-wide semiconductor revenue is decreasing, however, the world-wide automotive integrated circuit market is forecasted to grow at 7.2%, from
a revenue of USD22.2 billion in 2016 to USD23.8 billion in 2017.

KESM is at the right unique sector, automation in car.

The company said...... We are just at the starting point of an exciting road ahead focusing on our strategic plans. Our customers are rolling out new devices and solutions to meet the growing demands by the car makers.

"We see great potentials as increasing new automotive devices are required for added features in the evolution of cars and our opportunities will remain as the demand grows," Lim said.

You see the word "starting point"? Means baru start (just started)

3) Affin Hwang recommended buy KESM with KESM fair value of RM11.00. Maintain BUY and target price of RM11
No major changes to our FY17-18E EPS forecasts and we introduce FY19E EPS of 129 sen (+26 percent yoy). We continue to believe that KESM is in the position to benefit from the strong growth in the automotive semiconductor segment, underpinned by rising electronic contents, from safety to infotainment and autonomous vehicles. Maintain BUY and target price of RM11 (12x calendarised 2017E EPS) which offers almost 40% upside.

4)With share price of RM8.00, high chances for bonus issue and share split which will attract more buyers and volume, get re-rating and unlocking value.

KESM dividend is poor, 1% yield I think. But they have generated a lot of cash and reduced a lot of debt. In fact, the dividend has increased. Last year dividend RM0.06, this year 25% more RM0.075. I strongly believe they will pay more dividend in the future.

I was waiting for a lower price but KESM share price rebounded from RM7.52 to RM7.7x. I couldn't wait and bought it. I think many people had realised that the quarterly result is not that bad after all. Please remember we are buying for the future and not the past.

KESM share price closed at RM7.94. I bought at RM7.7x, about 3% higher from the low. Am I bad investor? I don't think people will always get at the lowest price, only SKL can do that. Who is SKL, those who know cantonese will know.

Those who have just sold, after getting more info, if they think KESM is good to buy at this price, can consider buy back. I'm not saying KESM is good to buy for them, I'm saying with all info and "they think" KESM is good at this price, can consider buy back. Because what's wrong if we buy a stock that we think is good? Past is past.

All things come with a risk. With the information that we have for KESM, I will continue to add KESM, unless got negative news.

Again, did not manage to add FIBON stock.

PRLEXUS, as shared in my previous articles, their factories and fabri mills ready in around 2017. I was supposed to KIV this stock and buy in 2017, but as shared in my facebook it seems the volume and share price has started moving a bit. Bought at RM2.4x.

Sometimes i forgot to share what I want to and forgot what I have shared. All these bloggings taking a lot of times because I have to check here and there. I don't even have wifi at home. All typing via phone. If you eat I dont feel full, if you don't eat I will not get hungry. But as long as my sharing can help others, I'll be very glad.

After searching, I have not shared my selling of CIMB. I sold my CIMB for gain. Bought at RM4.4x sold at RM4.7x. This CIMB is not for long term, took opportunity on the low price and momentum.

LBS stock announed some don't know what developments. Newbie bought it at RM1.6x and now RM1.78, up more than 10%.

His Gadang continue to grow strong, with Gadang share price almost RM3.00.

His Inari share also steady, maybe is because of the launching of new iPhone.

I don't have these stocks.

Those he cut loss examples DRBHICOM and GTronic share prices are higher than his selling price.

Oh, have I shared newbie also bought KESM few weeks ago? His price was RM7.8x if I remember correctly. He kind of like the idea of growth in the driverless car/taxi which may benefit KESM.

Many people are making huge gain from steel companies. I missed it because was not aware of what was happening. Some of the steel related stocks shared by prominent uncle: (for concrete reinforcement in construction) players such as Masteel, Southern Steel, Annjoo; downstream players like Choo Bee, Leon Fuat, AYS, Leader Steel and etc. He said must study carefully, not all steel companies are the same. Some produce different products, some only small percentage of revenue from steel.

Superlon stock. Dropped from RM2.3x to RM2 and now rebounded to RM2.4x. Quarterly result is out soon. Hopefully will be good.

MBSB price looking good. Will not buy more.

Bison share price is almost RM2.00. I made but did not buy more because the PE is high. Analysts also did not give high fair value. I will just hold.

PERAK TRANSIT BERHAD IPO
Kenanga said... We like this new IPO, Perak Transit, for: (i) its quasi-recurring income model, (ii) being in a highly defensive sector with high barriers of entry, (iii) tax incentives and strong PAT margins of 30.2-32.1% in FY17-18E, and (iv) future growth from new Kampar terminal (IPO proceeds of RM36.8m is mainly for this development). Forecast earnings of RM27.1-RM31.1m and 4.0-4.5% yield in FY17-18E. Our DDM derived Target Price of RM0.22 (52.6% total returns) implies FY17E PER of 9.4x. SUBSCRIBE.

Forecast earnings of RM27.1-RM31.1 for FY17-18E mainly from A&P revenue growth, additional 25 buses in FY17, while the project facilitation fee remains the icing on the cake. We are expecting bottom line margins to expand in FY17, and estimating 30.2-32.1% PAT margins in FY17-18E from continued growth in the A&P revenue YoY, and on the back of lower effective tax rates (9%,7%,7% in FY16,FY17E,FY18E) derived from tax benefits received. A dividend pay-out policy of up to 25% translates to FY17-18E DPS of 0.59-0.68sen (4.0-4.5% yield based on the IPO price of RM0.15).

DDM-driven Target Price of RM0.22 with total return of 52.6% (7.69% discount rate; 3.19% 5-year risk free rate). Our TP implies FY17E PER of 9.4x. There are no direct comparable but given its quasi-recurring income base, we back tested our valuation method against small cap (<RM1b market cap) MREITs. Based on average small cap MREITs' FY17E PER of 16.0x and yield of 6.0%, we derive a Fwd. PER of 10.2x for Perak Transit based on its FY17E yield of 4.0% and this imply a TP of RM0.24, which reaffirms our valuation. We opt to maintain our DDM approach and TP of RM0.22 to be more conservative. SUBSCRIBE.

PTRANS target price is RM0.22.

Opening of application	15 Sep 2016
Closing of application	23 Sep 2016
Balloting of application	27 Sep 2016
Allotment of IPO shares to successful applicants	04 Oct 2016
Tentative listing date	06 Oct 2016

INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LISTING ON THE ACE MARKET OF BURSA MALAYSIA SECURITIES BERHAD COMPRISING PUBLIC ISSUE OF 245,000,000 ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.10 EACH IN PERAK TRANSIT BERHAD ("PERAK TRANSIT SHARES") IN THE FOLLOWING MANNER: (I) 58,000,000 NEW PERAK TRANSIT SHARES AVAILABLE FOR APPLICATION BY THE MALAYSIAN PUBLIC; AND (II) 187,000,000 NEW PERAK TRANSIT SHARES AVAILABLE FOR PRIVATE PLACEMENT TO SELECTED INVESTORS; AT AN ISSUE PRICE OF RM0.15 PER SHARE, PAYABLE IN FULL ON APPLICATION.

PEGGY Methodhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-1989207748057909572016-09-18T00:33:00.001+08:002016-09-18T00:33:50.226+08:00List of Export counters for us to Buy due to Strong US Dollar
Don't play play, now is almost RM4.20.

Below are the list of export oriented stocks. They will make more profit when the USD is up.

#
I'm not saying that now is the time to buy export counters. Sharing of info only. By the way, I don't gain by sharing info, and always receive criticism. People will leave some nasty comments in my blog and facebook. Is like eating nice durian, hope others can enjoy. I made money consistently and I'll be glad if my sharing can help others. If you think my method is wrong or need to be improved, why don't you guide me. I'm also still learning.

#
If you buy USD, USD up 1%, you make 1%. Some of the stocks below if USD up 1%, their profit could up 1.5% or some companies 2%. So, if you want to benefit from USD or hedge against USD, you may consider buying stocks that can gain at least 1% or more from 1% up of USD.

But some companies also will make less than 1% if USD up 1%.

#
It is also better to look for companies with good prospect, high dividend yield, high target price or fair value. In case the USD does not go up, at least the stock also can go up due to higher profit or receive good dividend.

Avoid stocks with no prospect. They may gain from USD, but profit may down due to much lower sales.

#
The list below are 12 months ago, but most are still valid. Do your own research. Their share prices are the latest and target prices are quite recent. The target price I roughly average it if got few brokers. If I didn't indicate any target price means unable to find.

#
Some are not export stocks, but are benefited from strong USD or weakening of Ringgit (example strong Yen or Euro). They may have operations in overseas.

#
I also list those have negative impact from weakening of Ringgit.

#
Once again, sharing of information only, I may have typo or the info may be outdated. Check with your finacial planner.

#
The target price or fair value are BEFORE the streghtening of USD to near RM4.20 now (RM4.15??). If USD up, the Target Price later will also be up.

#
I also list down those are negatively impacted by weakening of Ringgit. Don't mix up. DO NOT MIX UP.

POSITIVE from weakening of Ringgit:

Eversendai share price RM0.47, target price RM0.65

Rubber product manufacturers, semiconductor firms and furniture producers, because their costs are mainly in Ringgit while sales are mainly in USD.

RUBBER
Top Glove RM4.69, TP RM5.50

Supermax RM2.15, TP RM2.60

Hartalega RM4.40, TP RM4.30

Kossan RM6.25, TP RM7.50

Karex RM2.40, TP RM2.31

Furniture and Wood Related.
Homeritz share price RM0.885, Target Price RM1.09

Evergreen share price RM0.92, Target price RM1.48

Heavea RM1.25

JTIASA RM1.22

TAANN RM3.51, TP RM5.00

Latitud RM4.64, TP RM5.15

SHH RM1.77

LIIHEN RM2.93

Semiconductor or IT RELATED
Vitrox RM3.83, TP RM3.70
Last year Maybank said 1% USD up, Vitrox bottomline up 2%.

INARI, RM3.31, TP RM3.30

UNISEM RM2.70, TP RM2.85

UCHI TECH RM1.65

MPI RM7.93, TP RM8.48

EG RM0.84, TP RM1.02

Gaming.
Because some of the operations are in overseas.
GenM RM4.37, TP RM4.50

GenM family Genting RM7.76, TP RM9.15

Packaging
Daibochi  RM2.25, TP RM2.14
Tomypak RM1.66, TP RM2.00
Thong Guan TGUAN  RM4.28, TP RM4.88

OTHERS
MISC RM7.53, RM8.10

WCT RM1.65, TP RM1.85

OLDTOWN RM1.95, TP RM2.00

TIMECOM, RM8.42, TP RM7.28

Hovid RM0.375

IQGroup RM2.24, TP RM2.75

Kawan RM3.79

Asiafile RM3.68 ASIAFLE

CSCENIC RM1.69
You see this CSCENIC, there was one quarter it said although USD is strong, their profit was not good because undercut by Europe competitors. I think Euro also dropped against the USD, not sure. So you must determine whether is USD strong, or Ringgit weak.

VS??? Share price RM1.33, target price RM1.75

PRELEXUS. PRLEXUS because manufacture for NIKE.

Comcorp??

KESM??

Cimb and Unimech??? Benefit from weak Ringgit due to their Indonesia operations?

OCK probably may not benefit from strong USD but may benefit from weak Ringgit because of their South East Asia opeartions. I may be wrong but this is with my limited info.

Not sure about the below list...????
Ahb
Dps
Eksons
Eurosp
Facbind
Ffhb
Jaycorp
Lcheong
Pohuat
Sernkou
Sign
Syf
Tafi
Swscap

XXXXXXXX=======XXXXXXXXX

NEGATIVE from weakening of Ringgit. Do NOT mix up, below are negative. Bad from strong USD or weak Ringgit.

Company that import raw materials in USD but sell in Ringgit and those who have USD debt.

Automotive Sector
UMW
Tan Chong
Last year Kenanga said 1% fluatuation in USD, UMW's bottomline could be affected by 3%. Tan Chong is 6%.

Berjaya Auto RM2.30, TP RM2.55

DRBHCOM RM1.34, TP RM1.31

MBMR RM2.52, TP RM2.68

Aviation/Airlines
Because many borrowings are in USD. Fuel cost also. Unless they have hedged it.

AirAsia
You guys know AirAsia much better than me.

Telco?
Many telcos have borrowings in USD.

Axiata RM5.32, TP RM5.20

TM

MAXIS

ASTRO.
Because most content costs are in USD but sales are in Ringgit.

Others
Nestle
TCM
TENAGA
SUNWAY- USD debt
IJM- USD debt
F&N
GAB GUINNESS HEIM	 	HEINEKEN MALAYSIA BERHAD

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PEGGY Methodhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-54402248057834624432016-09-11T17:36:00.001+08:002016-09-11T17:38:59.509+08:00IQgroup stock research analysis
CAN GLOBAL LED MARKET GROWTH LIGHT UP IQ GROUP HOLDINGS' PROSPECTS?

By Tan Jiahui | Shares Investment – Wed, Sep 7, 2016

Remember the first time you walked into a room that automatically lights up? While rare in the past, many buildings are now equipped with smart lighting systems, which uses sensors to detect and control lighting to achieve energy efficiency.

Today, sensors are also commonly used in numerous applications including car park space monitoring, central heating and air-conditioning systems (using thermostats) and speed cameras. As the world move towards the vision of the Internet of Things (IoT), sensors which can collect and transmit data back to cloud servers play an important role.
With potential seen in the market for sensor-based products, we zoom in on IQ Group Holdings (IQ Group), a motion sensor lighting producer listed in Malaysia.

Business – Most Revenue from Europe, Japan, and the US
IQ Group, founded in Penang, Malaysia in 1989, is principally engaged in the design and manufacturing of sensor products which includes passive infrared detectors, motion sensor light controllers, wireless video communication devices, door bells and home security system products.

Subsequently, the group formed a joint venture with Taiwan-based SemiLEDs Optoelectronics Co to diversify into the development, design and manufacture of light-emitting diode (LED) luminaires, hoping to ride on the growing LED market.

The company operates under both the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and original design manufacturer (ODM) business models, with manufacturing facilities located in Penang and Dongguan, China. The group derives most of its revenue from customers in Europe, Japan and the US, and main customers of the firm are said to include big names like OSRAM, OPTEX Co and Hager.

The core technologies of the firm focus on passive infrared (PIR) sensors which operate by monitoring the background 'temperature'), and wire-free door chimes and video intercom systems.

Turnaround Story – Recovered from GFC; Revenue and Net Profit Growing
Looking at IQ Group's past operating performance, things were not all smooth for the firm. The company fell into losses for three consecutive financial years from FY09 to FY11 before making a turnaround in FY12.

The group's performance in those periods was dragged down by poor economic conditions during the global financial crisis, coupled with a rise in manufacturing costs, particularly in China. IQ Group then underwent a successful restructuring exercise (completed in FY11) and streamlined its processes to improve efficiency and reduce costs, which helped return it to profitability.

In the past five financial years from FY12 to FY16, the firm's top and bottom lines have been on a general uptrend. Revenue and net profit grew at compounded annual growth rate of 6.3 percent and 35 percent over the period to reach RM190.9 million and RM20.9 million respectively.
While there was a dip in earnings in FY13, we note that it was due to foreign exchange loss of RM1.6 million and the absence of disposal gains amounting to RM4.2 million recorded in FY12. Net margin has also been improving and held steady at 10.8 percent and 10.9 percent for FY15 and FY16 respectively.

Strong Balance Sheet And Cash Flows – 30% of Market Cap
In terms of financial strength, IQ Group boasts a cash-rich balance sheet that is free of debts. As of 30 June 2016, the firm's net cash stood at approximately RM56.8 million (including short-term deposits), which translates to roughly 30.8 percent of its market capitalisation of RM184.4 million as of 5 September.
On the cash flows front, the group has posted positive operating cash flows in all of the past years except for FY11. We like that the company's free cash flows have also been positive in the latest four financial years from FY13 to FY16. The strong cash generating capabilities have, in turn, allowed IQ Group to build up its cash reserves.

As business recovered and cash pile grew, the firm rewarded shareholders with the resumption of dividend payout in FY15. Based on the share price of RM2.09 as at 5 September's close, IQ Group's FY16 dividend per share of RM0.10 translated to a decent yield of 4.8 percent.

Management: In-house Brand LED Lighting Expected To Drive Growth
In the past few years, IQ Group has developed its own intelligent lighting solutions, which was launched in early 2015 under the Lumiqs brand. Lumiqs LED products are equipped with wireless transceivers and can be programmed to grow dimmer or brighter according to movement of people in an area, allowing up to 90 percent energy saving.

Currently, the Lumiqs range of products are mainly targeted at the industrial and commercial markets but the firm is developing and designing a new sensor lighting offering (projected to be released by 2018) to be used in small commercial premises and residential households. According to the firm, orders for the Lumiqs lighting solutions have already started coming in from South-East Asian countries, Japan, Australia, and Switzerland.

The group expects its in-house brand name LED products to be its driver of growth in the next five years. Riding on a forecast that the global LED market will hit US$42.7 billion by 2020, the company targets for the Lumiqs brand to generate 10 percent of its total revenue by 2018, and 30 percent by 2020.

Conclusion
Based on a share price of RM2.09, the company's shares are trading at a trailing twelve months price to earnings ratio (P/E) of 8.7 times, which seems reasonable given the company's performance and growth prospect. In contrast, Taiwan-listed peer Everspring Industry Co (Everspring) trades at a P/E of 25.3 times. While Everspring's market capitalisation is about three times that of IQ Group, we note that the former's latest full year net profit is only about 10 percent higher.
Overall, we foresee the demand for the IQ group's products to rise as people become more conscious about the environment and saving energy. Additionally, with the increasing popularity of the IoT, the company is in a good position to capitalise on the trend using its innovation and expertise.

PEGGY Methodhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-25519281264447172912016-09-10T15:31:00.001+08:002016-09-10T15:31:30.808+08:00Prolexus, IQgroup, Unimech, NIKE, Steel Stocks, Fibon, KBES, L&G, Berjaya Auto
This week activities:

Added IQgroup stock at RM2.1x. I think people panic after knowing I bought and immediately the same day IQgroup dropped to RM2.11. If I have stomach ache I may bought few cents cheaper. Now up 7.1% to RM2.26. Please refer to my previous post for the reasons why I bought.

Bought Unimech at RM1.1x and sold at RM1.20 for some contra gain because saw many people said they are buying for Indonesia business recovery. If I have stomach ache, I would have miss this. So don't blame stomach ache, you may buy cheaper or more expensive, no one know.

Didn't manage to get L&G, because my que was not done at RM0.4x. Didn't manage to change one bid higher. If not, would have contra for close to 10% gain. I seldom que and not getting, don't know why this round went to que.

At last, sold my KBES at RM0.28x and RM0.26x. Loss here. It was meant to be short term. It did went up more than RM0.30 for me to sell at 10% gain within the same day I bought, but my timing decision was wrong.

Did not manage to buy Fibon shares as planned because was buying IQ Group stock. Read from forum, will Zika have negative impact on their Singapore projects?

Prlexus stock research analysis.
Three segments: garments, which include the manufacturing and sale of garments; advertising, which include the provision of advertising services on multimedia boards, and investment holding. Also manufacture for NIKE.

Based on the past few years results, Prolexus' profits have up a lot. Are we too late now? Yes, but we may be too early also.

Too late because we missed the uptrend in profit. Too early because they have some projects to be completed in 2017 onwards.

I have no info on the growth from existing business, but what we have is the news, which I hope can be turned into mini catalysts.

Simple Analysis:
Prlexus share price: RM1.41

Past four quarters profits: RM25.38mil
Number of shares: 176.8mil
Warrants: 56.8mil

EPS before full warrants dilution: RM0.143, PE ratio 9.9 times

EPS after full warrants dilution: RM0.109, PE ratio 12.9 times

Warrants expiry is after 4.5 years, we can ignore but to be prudent we can simply adjust PE ratio to 11 times.

Catalysts:
Prolexus to set up two joint-venture plants with Taiwanese firm, The Star Feb 2016.

Prolexus to set up Vietnam ops to gain from TPPA (plant in Vietnam and Fabri Mill in Johor). The Star.

RM22mil is allocated for the Vietnam factory (land acquisition cost, however, will be paid with internal funds).  The management anticipates the construction of the new factory to commence in 2016 and is projected to be completed and fully commissioned by 2017, with an initial production capacity of about 4.5 million pieces annually.

The Star Dec 2015.
New fabric mill in Kluang, Johor. On the RM55mil fabric mill to diversify into upstream garment production, Prolexus said this would allow internal procurement of knitted fabrics produced in-house instead of purchasing from external suppliers.

For those who are interested in the price, Prolexus share price up from RM1.19 in the beginning of 2015.
Up 131% to RM2.75 as at Nov 2015.
Down 26% to RM2.04 on the day before it ex for Rights issue in May 2016.

Those who gone through the Rights issue......

1 rights with warrants for every 2
RM2.04 X 2 = 4.08
Add Rights issue price RM1.00 = RM5.08 total cost.

What they have now.
RM1.41 X 3 = RM4.23
Add 1 warrant RM0.47
RM4.70

Selling persisted even after the ex date.

Now the price hovering around this level.

Don't know whether this will be a good buy in 2017, because many information is missing. The factory in Vietnam is it the same with MC joint-venture? When will the mill in Kluang be completed? Supposed to sign Joint-venture with MC within 6 months from February 2016, what happen now?

Not sure th Euro 2016 did any boom to Prolexus or not.

Steel.
Past few weeks the steel stocks are attracting buying interest. Many people came to my blog to check the list of steel stocks published few years ago.

Next week activities? Don't know yet, maybe adding Fibon stock.

LBS suspended for 3 days. Hope good news for Newbie.

His Berjaya Auto announced result below expectation. I don't think he follow the developments of his stocks.

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PEGGY Methodhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-67896882315690165782016-09-07T10:07:00.001+08:002016-09-07T12:19:06.004+08:00IQ GROUP stock- Grows Brighter When You Walk Nearer
Today added at RM2.1x, and it closed RM2.11, lower than my cost.

IQgroup

Standard Analysis:

PE Ratio:  8.8x (Past 4 Quarters)

Dividend yield: 4.7%

Net cash RM0.54 per share. 27% of share price.

Growth?

IQ-group is an established global leader in the design & manufacture of lighting, security and convenience products, working with some of the world's major retail and professional brands.

Over their 25+ year history they have built up an enviable reputation for design, innovation, quality and value within our core technologies, encompassing motion sensors, LED lighting and wirefree door entry products.

Employing approximately 1300 people globally, they boast manufacturing operations in Malaysia and China, plus offices in Taiwan, Japan and the United Kingdom.

News:

In March 2014, they said :

"During the last 18 months we have spent money to develop intelligent lighting solutions to be marketed under the Lumiqs brand name."
= They have spent the money.

"The Lumiqs LED products enable users to save over 90% of energy, as the solutions, equipped with wireless transceivers, can be programmed to grow dimmer or brighter according to the number of people in an area."
= Good product that can save 90% of energy?

"They will be released into the market in the second half of 2014 for the global market"
= I think there is a delay. News in September 2016 said starting 2015.

"Expected to play an important role in revenue contribution for the 2016 fiscal year, which starts from April 1 2015."
= Did we see improvement in Financial Result for year ended March 2016? No. Result was flat. But don't know how much is from Lumiqs and how much is from forex.

In Sep 2016, they said:

"IQ Group Holdings Bhd is working for its Lumiqs brand to generate 30% of the group's revenue by 2020. By 2018, it is targeted that the Lumiqs brand should contribute about 10% to the group's revenue."
= Good prospect from new product.

"We have established distribution channels for Lumiqs in South-East Asia. Now we are working on creating additional sales channels in Europe and other continents," he said."
= New markets

"Both Lumiqs and the new product will help drive the group's growth over the next five years"
= Good prospect for 5 years

I have missed out on The Star newspaper, if not I would have bought her at slightly lower price, the money saved can add few dishes to my Nasi Campur (mixed rice) for many days.

My view is that this IQ Group have growth. How much, I don't know. Although past few years, their financial is not so consistent, but the PE ratio is not expensive and with dividend yield of 4.7%, it provides some support. With net cash of RM0.54, it can be used to support dividend payment or for new products/markets development without calling cash injection.

IQGroup fair value and target price? I will just play by ear, assess the new developments.

For those who are concerned about price, she was RM0.35 in September 2013. RM1.00 in July 2014. RM3.00 in May 2015.

So, price is too high now? Or dropped a lot already and can buy?
I look at valuation.

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The Star NEWS ARTICLES BELOW:

Thursday, 1 September 2016.

Lumiqs brand to generate 30% of IQ revenue by 2020

GEORGE TOWN: IQ Group Holdings Bhd is working for its Lumiqs brand to generate 30% of the group's revenue by 2020.

Group chief executive officer Daniel Beasley (pic) told StarBiz after an AGM that the goal was achievable because the Lumiqs brand had started to receive orders from South-East Asian countries, Japan, Australia, and Switzerland.

"We expect orders to grow rapidly from the South-East Asian region, Japan, and Switzerland.

"By 2018, it is targeted that the Lumiqs brand should contribute about 10% to the group's revenue," he added.

Launched in early 2015, Lumiqs lighting solutions enable industrial users to save up to 90% of energy, as the solutions, equipped with wireless transceivers, can be programmed to grow dimmer or brighter according to the movement of people in an area.

"We have established distribution channels for Lumiqs in South-East Asia.

"Now we are working on creating additional sales channels in Europe and other continents," he said.

IQ is now developing and designing a new sensor lighting offering for release under a new business model by 2018.

"This product is for use in small commercial premises and residential households.

"Both Lumiqs and the new product will help drive the group's growth over the next five years," he said.

Beasley said the group spent about 50% of the material cost to import raw materials for its lighting solutions.

"The cost of importation is offset by our sales which are largely in US, allowing use to gain in the foreign exchange," he added.

For the 2017 financial year first quarter ended June 30 2016, the group posted RM6.6mil in net profit on the back of RM53.9mil in turnover, compared to RM6.4mil and RM50mil achieved in the previous year corresponding period.

According to a LEDinside report, the LED industrial lighting market is expected to grow from US$2.93bil to US5.2bil in 2020, representing a compounded annual growth rate of 15% during the five-year period.

=============

The Start Saturday, 22 March 2014

Riding on a forecast that the global light-emiting diode market (LED) will hit US$42bil in 2019, IQ Group Holdings Bhd plans to ride on its in-house brand name of LED lighting products to drive the group's growth from April next year.

The LED products to be released come under the category of smart lighting, which according to TechNavio, a London-based research and advisory company, is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR ) of 36.4% over the period 2013-2018.

Group CEO Daniel Beasley tells StarBizWeek that previously the group had concentrated on manufacturing original equipment manufacturing (OEM) lighting solutions.

"Our in-house brand 'IQ Group' contributed between 1% to 2% of the sensor and LED segment, which generates on an average about 75% of the group's revenue.

"During the last 18 months we have spent money to develop intelligent lighting solutions to be marketed under the Lumiqs brand name.

"They will be released into the market in the second half of 2014 for the global market, and is expected to play an important role in revenue contribution for the 2016 fiscal year, which starts fromApril 1 2015," he says.

The Lumiqs LED products enable users to save over 90% of energy, as the solutions, equipped with wireless transceivers, can be programmed to grow dimmer or brighter according to the number of people in an area.

"We are targeting mainly the industrial and commercial markets.

"We will also release a version suited for use in residential homes," he says.

Beasley says he expects Japan to be a major market for IQ's energy saving intelligent lighting solutions.

"Japan has reduced their usage of nuclear energy, and are starting to import coal and oil to generate electricity.

"This means that there are a lot of business opportunities for energy saving lighting solutions to grow," he says.

IQ is also talking with strategic business partners to market the Lumiqs products in Europe and Asia.

"We want to work with partners supplying to wholesale channels and the right business networks across the globe," he says.

IQ expects the sales for the current year in operations to grow by double digit percentage compared to the fiscal year 2013, which ends in two weeks time on March 31.

"We are confident as we have delivered over RM30mil worth of new LED lighting solutions to our customers worldwide," he says.

A US-based research house forecasts that the LED market will grow close to 50% until 2019.

PEGGY Methodhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-83244454981937656992016-09-04T00:38:00.001+08:002016-09-04T00:38:09.006+08:00Chin Well, L&G, Symphony, Supermax, JHM, Tek Seng, AWC, KBES, Fibon, AirAsia, TGUAN, SCGM, LBS, CIMB, GDEX
Yahooooo, is boring time again. After reading and looking at the stocks, the price will not move up daily.

No worries man!!!! One day without you reaalise, some have up 100% !!!!

The journey is boring, right? But the destination will make you siok siok.

Come come. Let us bore together. Is boring time.

L&G.
Does it stand for ladies and gentlemen? Or land and general? In Focus magazines, it talks about the cash in hands are more than the market capitalisation of L&G stock. I que but I don't think it was done. Didn't check yet. But the problem is, will they give special dividend? If they use the cash to buy land it is just another property counter. I buy because hopefully there will be many buying interest coming, for short term, not really for long term. Didn't manage to buy also never mind.

Symphony stock.
In the Focus magazine, it mentions the company having a lot of unbilled sales, and profits are going be great soon. I will skip, but just in case many are interested.

Supermax stock.
Went in at RM2.1x. This is my second entry, first was RM3+. Many analysts recommended buy and the share price has dropped a lot. I'm also trying to ride on the Zika issue where more gloves will be used for blood testing.

Because Zika can have negative impact on prenancy, more may use condom. If gloves can be used as condom, then the potential will be great. Imagine one glove having 5 different sizes (5 fingers in one glove).

JHM stock.
They supposed to get thier aerospace supplier license in July but no announcement yet. It could be some delay. Once announced, hope it will provide some push.

Teck Seng stock.
There are many debate on this stock in the forum. Solartech Taiwan revenue dropped monthly. Some said have no impact on Teck Seng because Teck Seng is in Malaysia and not Taiwan, and tax and don't know what. Some said their expansion plan is delayed. Some said no worries.

AWC stock.
I have studied the company and some other articles, don't know what they are saying. Poor me, lazy person. I only know one line from the company, they said "The overall prospects for the entire group remain strong". I guess it will be strong. Recently there is news on contract delayed, so the price down a bit but has rebounded. I will not add because don't really understand thier model. They have many contracts that last 10 to 20 years. Good recurring income.

KBES
As appeared in the Edge last week that KBES may be appointed China bus distributor. Early this week bought at RM0.28x, immediately it went above RM0.30, but then soften and and closed at RM0.27. Make or lose, will sell this coming week.

Friday news confirmed that KBES Bhd's wholly-owned Santero Sdn Bhd has been appointed as the sole distributor for Shanghai-listed Beiqi Foton Motor Co Ltd's (Foton) products in Malaysia for 40 months.

Sole distributor of Foton's diesel- and natural gas-powered buses and coaches, including spare parts for the purpose of direct sales to the end-users or sales to the authorized wholesalers and/or retailers in Malaysia.

Foton, which is part of the Beijing Automotive Industry Holding Co Ltd group, is an automotive player and largest commercial vehicle manufacturer in China, with more than US$4.77 billion in assets and 40,000 employees.

Fibon stock.
My next purchase will be adding Fibon shares. Not that it is the best, but it has lowest value in my portfolio of potential growth stock. Recently down, still above my cost. Before I could buy it rebounded nicely. Now is RM0.605.

AirAsia shares.
Not sure this Zika issue will have big negative impact on Airasia stock or not.

Thong Guan share.
In the news that they may tight up with Japanese for further growth.

SCGM stock.
Just announced recent, normal.

LBS stock.
Newbie's LBS share price recently went up 10%. Don't know what is happening.

Chinwel stock.
Prominent Uncle is promoting this stock. Some said when uncle promote, time to sell. But some even use vulgar words to defend uncle, saying he and his friends have benefited from uncle's recommendations.

CIMB stock.
Few weeks ago bought CIMB stock. Forgot the price but I think is having small gain now. Small quantity, not worth of mentioning in details. I don't like big company because they lack strong growth. But CIMB has dropped a lot, and value has emerged. So just try out.

GDEX stock.
I always wanted to buy this for many years, but the PE ratio is super high. Will be growing for the next few years.

That's all for the boring stuff.

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PEGGY Methodhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-60888531298265311972016-09-03T15:06:00.001+08:002016-09-03T15:43:25.695+08:00How I Kill My Friends in Stock Market and Commit Suicide
I have an article in 2011 on how I kill my friends in stock market.

Here.

http://politemarket.blogspot.my/2011/04/how-i-kill-my-friends-in-bursa-malaysia.html

Now I'll explain how I commit suicide after killing my friend.

I did not recommend people to buy stocks. But some interested to know what are the good stocks that I know of, and also what stocks do I buy.

I actually have stopped telling friends about stocks for the past many years. Friends know I'm making money from stock market due to change in lifestyle. So some started to ask me.

There are many incidents, but I just share one.

Early this year, my friend asked me and I shared about TG stock to my friend, within few days it went up and non stop going up. I called him, but he didn't buy. Only myself enjoying the profit. I even contra the stock to make extra money as shared in my Facebook the time I was buying.

He missed it. So I shared another, O stock. I said if this O stock break above RM0.8x, buy signal. We shall wait. He asked me, why not BUY NOW. How to monitor and know. What if he miss the boat. So I asked I'll help to monotor.

Stress stress and stress!!! Suddenly I realised what if the shares break the signal line when I was not monitoring? Will he blame me. I always have to check the price. I missed any stock I'm ok but what if he missed when I had promised to help him to monitor.

Then I called him. I told him sorry, I don't think I can keep monitoring. He told me he already bought.

The stock did not manage to break the resistance level and dropped. I have to sell big chuck of this stock. Why? If I don't sell, the stock continue to drop, he will suffer loss and I'll feel bad. If I sell, if the stock down, at least I have sold big chuck. If the stock up, at least he make money (although I make less).

Many times, I sold stocks because my friends bought it. And when the stocks up, I'm not able to enjoy the big gain.

Past few months have been frustrating months as I have to keep worried about their stock prices.

From now on I will do this...

No more sharing to friends.
If they really want to know, sometimes people think I'm selfish, I will share 10 stocks, at least some will up.

Is very fructiting.
1)I'm not able to share my experience to friends so that they can make money just like me.
2)at the same time I have to cut my stocks or change my portfolio because they have bought.

I'm not just killing them, but I kill myself too.

Things sometimes don't work according to plan. Even the company management is not able to control the future. I buy because of the possibility of great increase in the company's profits due to future development.

I was wrong on Supermax because they shut down their plant for maintenance and hit by one off tax penalty.

I was also wrong on A&M and many more. Recently also was wrong on my favourite stock EG although didn't really suffer loss because the price did not drop a lot, just that it did not go up as planned.

What were my damages for each wrong? 10%, 5%, 60%?

I have so many home runs, gain 100%, 200% or more. Boilerm, Huayang, Bonia, Imaspro, Scientx, Freight, just to name a few.

The main reasons why I keep making money are:
1)keep buying good growth stocks and hold on to enjoy the price increse.
2)Dollar Cost Averaging

Key words:
Keep buying.
Good growth.
Hold and enjoy.
Dollar cost average.

PEGGY Methodhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-14385970551636461612016-08-31T01:44:00.001+08:002016-08-31T11:13:59.130+08:00AirAsia, JHM, DKSH, AWC, KESM, OPENSYS, EG, Vitrox, Fibon, TGuan, Oldtown, IQGroup, Supermax
As you can see from my previous posts, past few weeks made mistakes here and there. But I already have strike few gold and silver. And also have more experience in analysing (rather than waiting for analysts) and that will be good for my long term investment.

Nobody like to lose if it is important. I also don't like losing money, but if this is the risks that I have to take, I will take it provided I can limit my losses.

On an average, I don't think for the past few months I lose because I strike some gold and silver. Maybe made less.

Vitrox.
Sold some RM3.9x and RM3.8x for portfolio adjustment. PE is not low, result normal only. Loss on the cost RM4.00/RM3.9x but gain on others as my first entry was RM3.4x, kept adding. Average I think RM3.5x. Also due to Dollar Cost Averaging, buy more quantity when price low.

EG stock.
Result normal. Growth potential still there and PE ratio is low. Will be listing their Thailand unit soon. As I study more and more, couldn't wait and purchased more. Now want to cut some. Not that it is not good, but for portfolio management.

KESM stock.
Entry at RM5.xx and added RM6.7x and added again RM8.1x. Will add again, see their quarterly result how.

JHM stock price.
Result good. First entry RM0.7x and added all the way to RM1.4x. Up 100% already.

Current EPS X 4 the PE ratio is 10 times, not high. The current JHM profit is without their future expansion into aerospace market and without significant Japan and Europe markets. Once in, good time ahead.

Also plan to transfer to Bursa Main Market in 2018. Excited about this. All info I have gathered without analyst's report.

Fibon stock.
Cost RM0.5x.Will add one more round if no other choices. About half of the price is cash.

Opensys.
Maybe I have not shared this Opensystem before. Entry for Open System RM0.2x, RM0.27 if I'm not wrong. Went up to RM0.40 and now came down to RM0.345. Growth is from banks' ordering of their 2 in 1 machines. Cash deposit and ATM machine together. What we see is ATM and also Cash Deposit. Later will be more 2 in 1 machines. May add more. PE not cheap.

TGUAN stock
Nothing much to say. Just hold on.

Oldtown stock.
Not mine, Newbie. Growth from coffee packets and overseas market are there, but may drag down by local outlets. Many foreigners working in their kopitiam. Up to newbie whether to buy more, sell or hold.

IQGroup just hold on. Will not add.

Added AWC at RM0.8x. Entry was RM0.38x. Another of my stock 100% up, but now drop to RM0.745.

Also added AirAsia stocks at AirAsia share price of RM3.0x. Entry RM2.7x. It seems everyone also trade AirAsia stock. I also join the bandwagon, many analysts also recommended buy with AirAsia target price fair value of RM3.18 to RM4.65, with the exception of Public Bank target price fair value of RM2.50. My entry was late, higher price. Same as Airasia air ticket, buy earlier cheaper.

Forget about Supermax.

DKSH stock.
Starting buying DKSH stock, entry RM5.1x and RM5.4x. I know my entry is a bit high, but it just jumped up giving me no chance.

See what the company said....

Prospects:
The Group continues to take a positive outlook on 2016. Market conditions are relatively stable. Costs remain stable and no major expenses or infrastructure upgrades are planned in 2016 as the infrastructure has now been put in place to support the growth currently being experienced. Revenues will continue to be below prior year due to the change in telecommunications client, however, revenues for existing clients are expected to continue to grow. The client and customer portfolio remains well diversified and supported by a strong sales, marketing and distribution infrastructure with a capillary distribution reach. With a scalable business model, the Group offers a comprehensive portfolio of services along the entire value chain, customized and tailor-made to clients' specific needs.

Furthermore, operational risk management processes and controls, supported by an industry leading IT system, continue to support the existing businesses as well as new clients. Two market trends additionally support a positive medium-to-long-term outlook for the Group. Firstly, the growing middle class in Malaysia supports the demand for consumer goods and healthcare products. Secondly, manufacturers increasingly focus on core competencies and seek specialized service providers in order to grow the market for and with them.

No hurry to add. As they add more products to their list, more profit. Previously they have spent on relocation and others, moving forward is the time to harvest. Coming quarters may not be good but subsequently will be clear sky ahead.

My plan is to add JHM, KESM (depend on result), Fibon, Opensys (maybe), DKSH, and further study on AWC.

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PEGGY Methodhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-70626252009384039172016-08-30T12:30:00.001+08:002016-08-30T12:30:23.744+08:00KESM Target Price RM11
Affin Hwang Capital

KESM was RM6.95
In the automotive sweet spot
KESM recorded a strong 2012-15 EPS CAGR of 32%. We believe the solid growth is sustainable, underpinned by focused growth in the automotive business and margin expansion from improved product mix and growth in the high-margin testing business. Hence, despite the 34% stock price outperformance ytd, we think valuations remain attractive and expect a continued PE re-rating.

Initiate coverage with a BUY and target price of RM11 based on 12x our calendarised 2017E EPS, for upside potential of 58%. Set to benefit from automotive structural growth story KESM provides a good proxy to the stable and growing automotive semiconductor segment, in our view. With strong growing demand for electronics for vehicles, from safety to infotainment and autonomous vehicles, we believe KESM is in the right segment to benefit from an automotive structural growth story.

2015-17E EPS CAGR of 35%

We forecast KESM to achieve a 3-year EPS CAGR of 35% on the expansion of its testing business in the automotive segment. Its recent investments, in our view, should gradually bear fruit in the coming years and drive revenue growth. We look for EBITDA margins to rise from 31.9% in 2015.

Further re-rating expected

We see several re-rating catalysts for the stock, including a strong earnings

upcycle and PE expansion, as awareness on the stock remains low and

institutional holdings are limited.

Initiate coverage with BUY and RM11 target price

We initiate coverage on KESM with a BUY rating, on: 1) solid growth prospects in the automotive space, a strong working relationship with customers and expansion into the testing business, which we expect to drive a 3-year-forward EPS CAGR of 35%; 2) a hands-on and forwardlooking management team; and 3) although valuation comparables are limited as competitors are mainly integrated device manufacturers (IDM), closest peer Trio-Tech (TRT US) trades at a 14x 2016E EPS. KESM also trades on average at a 56% discount to automotive-related IDMs' 2016E PE of 20.7x. Thus, at a 2017E PER of 8x, valuation looks attractive. Our target price of RM11 (12x calendarised 2017E EPS) offers 58% upside.

KENANGA
KESM was RM6.69
Despite weaker performance in the global semiconductor industry, KESM's earnings have continued to grow at a rapid clip. Between FY12 and FY15, net profits had grown by a stellar CAGR of 60%. KESM is now poised for the next growth stage following the recent acquisition of the remaining 34.6% equity interest in KESM Test as well as the successful development of proprietary process controls for Test-During-Burn-In (TDBI); both developments will enable the group to establish a stronger foothold in the resilient & high margin automotive segment. We project earnings to grow by 75.2%/13.6% in FY16E/FY17E, and recommend a TRADING BUY on KESM with a fair value of RM7.90 based on a targeted FY17E PER of 10x.

In a sweet spot.

KESM began as a company involved in burn-in services for the semiconductor industry. The company's foray into the Testing Services industry over the years has begun to bear fruit and KESM now enjoys a market-leading position as the largest independent "Burn-in & Test" service company in Malaysia. Recently, KESM completed the acquisition of the remaining 34.6% equity interest in KESM Test (in May 2015) for RM35.0m. The automotive segment now accounts for 70-80% of revenue (UNISEM and MPI derive c.17% and 23% of revenue from the Automotive industry, respectively), with the balance coming from the commercial segment.

Betting big on the automotive segment.

KESM is well positioned to benefit from two salient trends; (1) rising global automotive sales (expected to exceed 100m units in 2017 from 91m in 2015), and (2) increased electronic chips content in cars. The value content of electronics in a car is expected to grow from USD284 to USD330 from 2014 to 2019. The automotive segment represents an area of high growth potential and has enabled the Group to diversify into a segment that offers longer product life cycle and higher margin.

FY16/17E Net Profit to grow 75.2%/13.6%. KESM's EBIT margins have expanded from just 5.4% in FY12 to 9.5% in FY15, while its earnings have also increased at a 3-year CAGR of 60.0%. In addition to the above growth drivers, we see the trend of increasing chip content cascading down from luxury cars to mid/low range cars, anchoring top line growth for KESM's Burn-in and Testing services over the medium-to-long term. At the same time, higher margins from the automotive IC segment as well as cost efficiency from KESM's proprietary Test during Burn-in (TDBI) should pave the way for a 273bps/23bps improvement in EBIT margins for FY16E/FY17E.

Strong balance sheet with RM63.6m cash pile.

Despite the expansion drive these past few years, KESM was still able to maintain a net cash position (RM1.48/share). Looking ahead, we projected CAPEX to come in at RM50m/RM70m for FY16/FY17. While dividends are expected to maintain

at a modest 15% pay-out ratio (dividend yield of 1.9%), we see scope for a bonus issue, given the high retained earnings of RM219.5m and very low share capital of just RM43.0m.

Trading Buy with Fair Value of RM7.90.

We believe this under-researched

gem is due for a rerating given its unique position within a resilient segment, strong earnings delivery and cash rich position. KESM is currently trading at a mere 8.5x FY17E PER (6.6x ex-cash), compared to listed peers, which trade at an average Fwd. PER of 12.8x. We expect the valuation gap to narrow, and have derived a FV of RM7.90 based on 10x PER FY17E (+18.1% from yesterday's close). The RM7.90 Fair Value is premised upon a 20% discount to the valuation of industry peers in view of its smaller market capitalization and tighter shares liquidity.

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PEGGY Methodhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-40587411166265069772016-08-29T21:29:00.001+08:002016-08-29T21:29:39.854+08:00Why My Stock Market Skill is like Bowling?
Making money from stock market is easy. But I always want to make more in terms of percentage %. Just like bowling, for me to hit the pins is easy, but I always want to have strike or more pins to fall.

I only have one bowling style, aim at the middle. But sometimes the ball roll a bit on the right side. So I will twist a bit left, but many times too much towards the left.

In stock market is the same, I always try new things.

This one and a half years have been tough. Reason is because brokers research reports did not much good stocks. Even the stocks has low or negative growth, they also continue to write. Most of then are with high PE ratio.

Less good stocks did not seem to bother me much because last year and begining of this year I need cash for other investment and didnt really invest heavily. But when I got the cash, I couldn't find much good stocks.

Minor Change In My Strategy:

DO NOT RELY ON ANALYSTS.
Rather than waiting for their good recommendation, I will go forum, blogs, newspapers, magazines, company annoucement etc.
More time consuming, but no choice.

Initially I try to read as many as possible but too time consuming. So now I just pick-up some, miss some never mind. Again, no choice. Will never find the best and will never find all.

Do Not Like The Stock Too Much.
Analysts reports are easy, few minutes I can make a decision. But from blogs or news are not so easy. The info are not complete and I havd to do my own computation. Have to research more. As I study and study, not to my realisation, I have liked the stock too much. Keep picking up the good points and ignoring the bad. Lesson learned.

Qualitative and not quantitative.
As you know, I am just an ordinary investor, not good in analysis. Somtimes I thought the profit was good and bought it, not realising many things example forex, QoQ (this one simple but sometimes forgot), exceptional items, etc.

I will not rush into buying based on the result, but rather just focusing on the future growth that nobody know the exact answer.

PE RATIO
Previously I missed out a few stocks because the PE ratio was high, but the profit keep growing. That's why recently I also bought some stocks with high PE ratio. Some turned out to be good, some no. Profit up but price same because PE ratio already high.

What I will do? Stop buying high PE ratio stocks. Stick to my low PE ratio. If high PE ratio, I will use latest earnings EPS X 4, and see whether can get low PE ratio or not, provided the result is not seasonal.

Summary
To sum up, I will read more and not just wait on analysts. Shall ignore high PE ratio unless really good and don't like the stock too much. Stop study into too deep as this is not my strenght.

No matter how I change my style, as long as I keep buying good prospect stock, good profit will come.

Happy Investing.

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PEGGY Methodhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-73692871363668387082016-08-21T23:21:00.001+08:002016-08-21T23:25:45.233+08:00EG stock, SCGM, JHM, VITROX, MITRA, DRBHCOM, VITROX, LIIHEN, GTRONIC and GUH
This week added more EG stocks. This probably will be the last purchase for the time being unless they announce a very good result and the EG share price doesn't move much.

Super expensive Nasi briyani and Yong Tau Foo. Actually is not Yong Tau Foo, is Chee Cheong Fun. Both look the same. As mentioned earlier I bought SCGM stock was due to Nadi Briyani and Chee Cheong Fun. It dropped almost 20% from my purchase price ! The nasi briyani and chee cheong fun are so expensive! Price drop could be some negative news on the cost. Similar stocks also dropped, SLP and ULICORP

MMSV stock result is good, I think is the same LED industry as JHM stock. Hope JHM result also will be good.

Vitrox announced result, normal. They had analysts briefing on Friday, so see whether got any reports or not.

Newbie.
Continue his journey.

4 months ago Newbie sold DRBHCOM, cut loss. But now up 30% from the price he sold. Sometimes these things happen. You didn't buy, it goes up. You bought, it comes down. You sold, it goes up. You didn't take profit, it comes down.

Recently he also sold GUH at RM0.7x and GTRONIC at RM2.8x at huge losses.

These things will happen. But we must look at the bigger picture. His overall portfolio still looking strong, profit. Some of his stocks are performing well recently, example Gadang, MFCB and Mitrajaya. Three stock hit 100% gain, or almost 100%, example Caring, Harbour and TGUAN-WA.

We must remember he is still young and learning. Many people will say lose money in stock market consider paying tuition fee. If individual stock, yes, he lose on some and pay tuition fee. But his overall portfolio is profit, no need to pay tuition fee, and can get pay from stock market.

I have told him try not to keep adding new stocks if could not find good one. Recently he bought new stock LiiHen at RM3.0x, and more Mitra at share price RM1.4x and EG RM0.8x. Added Mitra because announced good result, EG is because the lowest PE ratio in his portfolio and with growth potential.

His Mitra, Harbour, Oldtown and Gadang are making gain, I don't have these stocks. Market is big enough for us to make money from different stocks.

That's all for now.

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PEGGY Methodhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-3830965197788065881.post-10054717249733954802016-08-15T09:03:00.001+08:002016-08-15T14:41:47.638+08:00Tek Seng, EG, OCK, JHM, KESM, TGUAN, SCGM, SUPERMAX STOCK
This week updates. Added more JHM stock at JHM share price RM1.3x. Didn't buy when it was RM1.2x. Suddenly went over RM1.30, was thinking too late. Then I told myself if i'm willing to buy at RM1.2x, why not at RM1.3x. I'm not thinking to sell at 10% or 20% profit, will try to hold at much higher price.

Again and again!!!. No matter how many years I'm in the stock market, still have the emotion delay the buying when price is weak, chase to buy when the price is high. Many people lose money because of this. But if we invest in fundamental growth stock, we may not lose. We could be also entering at right timing due to momentum or trend. Nothing wrong or right in waiting and chase of fundamental is still there, just that in this case bought was more expensive by RM0.05 to RM0.10.

My first entry pricr was RM0.7x, I think most people would have sold.

Cut a bit of my OCK stock. It did not manage to break the RM0.845. Furthermore, I think I made some wrong decisions. I first bought OCK was very cheap, added more although PE ratio was not low but justified by growth. My cost was RM0.80 but after the bonus and rights, my cost was  RM0.4x. First I have forgotten about the bonus issue, then the OCK stock price went up 30% again after rights issue. I did not check the figures again and bought more. So now I cut a bit.

By the way, now just realised my OCK stock became another stock hitting 100% share price increase. OCK took about 3 years, probably less than 3 years, lazy to check the record.

I also added KESM stock at KESM share price of RM6.7x after recommended by Kenanga.

The first few days was losing, but on Friday the stock jumped up. The first entry was few weeks ago, up 20% already I think. Previously no reasearch report on KESM, but once the Kenanga report is out, it confirmed many things, so bought more.

Too bad did not add Supermax stock at RM2.00, now RM2.30. Still at loss. See how is their result first. Don't want to have another round of shock poor result.

Added EG stocks again. It seems I have been adding for few weeks already. This stock not moving at all. Maybe will move in middle of August? By the way, my actual prediction is the last 7 market days. The reason I put middle of August is to remind myself not to miss it.

I think my Tek Seng stocks can start to make good profit for me already. Tek Seng announced good financial result. See how the market will responds. Previously the price dropped on the first day of good quarterly result. Up or down, will add more Tek Seng on Monday.

My SCGM stock price dropped. Maybe is because of the private placement that will further dilute the earnings. Don't bother because the reason I bought was due to Nasi Briani and Yong Tou Foo as explained in my article one two weeks ago. If it up or drop a bit, will not buy more.

I also added TGUAN loan stock at RM4.2x. Read a lot of good comments, so just add a bit more. Not much confidence, hopefully good result coming. My first entry was years back, super cheap. But I did sold almost all. Maybe due to buying property, couldn't recall. Enter again few months ago, below RM3. Contra gain some also. Switched mother, loan, warrant, contra, sold some bought back. Quite complicated. But to summarise, bought mother very cheap few years ago, sold almost all, started to buy back loan stock few months ago below RM3.

Few months ago due to some changes, I have decided not to record all my transactions. Too time consuming.

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PEGGY Methodhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com