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B1G Expectations: 2016 Week 2 Total Wins Update
Expectations: Week 2 Total Wins Update
Granted, after week 2, the statistical sample size remains small, and the quality of competition lacks the robustness required to keep games from lapsing into garbage time by early in the third quarter, which further aggravates the lack of data that makes up the advanced analytics. Nonetheless, the Vegas bookies aren't going to stop setting lines and taking your money, because it's their job; and your favorite fancy-stats analysts will still put out equivalent point-based ratings because it's their job to help you give less of your money to the Vegas bookies. The wheel in the sky keeps on turning, and the publication of the statistics such as they are goes on. Coming up with more reasons for ignoring these early season statistics is left an exercise for the reader in the comments below. Here you will find further ruminations on said statistics into still more statistics as a means for enabling further discussion, jumping to conclusions, flying off of the handle or goading your rival.
Previous diaries presented overall as well as in-conference win probability distributions for all Big Ten teams based on relative expected points ratings from Bill Connelly (S&P+ preseason on SBNation), ESPN (FPI) and Ed Feng (Power Rank). Last week bore witness to the shift from the more subjective preseason elements that are re-evaluated after each season to the more objective factors that are updated with each game played. Now we can press on with the first iteration of the in-season ratings.
Schedules, Spreads & Win Probabilities
Since we remain in the midst of the glorious non-conference segment of the season, it seems reasonable to stick with analyses of the overall schedules.
B1G East Schedule Rundown
The table of schedules below shows the overall schedules for all seven teams in the B1G East with attendant point spreads and win probabilities for each game based on the Bill Connelly's S&P+ weekly ratings. The last table simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GE teams based on their expected in-conference win totals, it's not a projection of divisional standings based on projected wins, losses, and tie-breakers.
What was particularly notable last week in the S&P+ results - that was, U-M being favored in all of its games - was apparently short-lived, as once again no team in the B1G East can make that claim. The love affair between S&P+ and our beloved Wolverines does go on - just not so hot and heavy as last week. Michigan and Ohio State are underdogs in one game apiece, Penn State in three (including its loss), and Michigan State in four. What is especially nice is that both OSU and MSU are underdogs in their games coming up. The rub is that OSU's only underdog matchup is in a non-conference game, and their being favored over U-M although not good, does not entirely kill U-M's chances for the B1GCG. This will be re-examined next week after the non-conference schedule is wrapped up (with the exception of MSU, who has an Oct. 8 matchup with BYU).
Of the other three Rutgers remains absolute cannon fodder, but Indiana is favored to win six total games, and Maryland, five, so either may well be bowl-eligible at the end of the season.
Honestly, six of seven teams in the Big Ten East becoming bowl eligible would be something quite significant toward laying claim to the title of most powerful division in all the land.
In the aggregate, Michigan still looks to be the team to beat with about 10.2 expected wins, edging Ohio State for the top spot by just under 1.2 wins - down from 1.4 wins last week. Michigan is still the only team expected to have a double-digit win total.
Here is a link to a similar table of schedule win probabilities based on FPI Ratings. Ed Feng is being a slacker, so there are no results from Power Rank.
The FPI results differ to some extent, most notably that the spreads of expected win totals are not as wide, which suggests more closely contested races. All of the "contenders" are underdogs in at least one game. U-M and OSU are both underdogs in a single game. PSU is an underdog in four games; MSU, five; and Maryland, six. Interestingly, FPI result now show Maryland edging Michigan State in total expected wins, both within 0.1 of 6 wins. Michigan remains the only team expecting double-digit wins.
B1G East Expected Overall Wins
The bar plots below show the expected total overall wins distributions for teams in the B1G East, in alphabetical order. Noted above each bar is the probability for that number of wins (you may need to click & embiggen to read it). The bar with the highest value is the most likely outcome (the mode). Also marked on each plot is the expected overall win total (the mean). The last line plot is just an overlay of the same data from the other seven bar plots.
What remains noticeable in the S&P+ results even going back to the preseason forecasts is how much higher the peak of Michigan's distribution is than any other team. The spread is also narrower, but that is less obvious. What this means is that not only does Michigan have the highest expected win total, but it is also the most likely to hit that mark. Also, Michigan has the highest mode of any team at 10 wins, one ahead of OSU follows at 9, followed by MSU at 8, and PSU at 7. Michigan still maintains the best chance of having an undefeated season at 11.1% or about 9:1 odds, followed by OSU with a 2.0% likelihood.
At this point, the distributions of Maryland and Indiana are almost indistinguishable, as are both of their expected win totals, less than 0.1 wins apart.
Here is a link to a similar plot of conference win distributions based on FPI ratings.
The FPI results favor OSU to much greater extent, showing both U-M and OSU with the same mode of 10 wins; U-M tilting to the higher side, and OSU to the lower. A clear separation of nearly 3 games has expanded to next closest contender, Penn State with a mode of 7 wins. Maryland, Indiana and MSU are in a three-way tie for the fourth place mode with 6 wins, with Indiana tilting to the lower side.
B1G West Schedule Rundown
The next table of schedules shows the overall schedules for the B1G West based on the Bill Connelly's S&P+ weekly ratings. Again, the last table simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GW teams based on their expected win totals - it's not a projection of divisional conference standings.
Since the emergence of game-based S&P+ ratings the contenders in order of overall expected wins in the B1GW are Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin. That said, the first three are tightly packed, within 0.25 wins of each other, and less than 0.7 wins separate Minnesota from fourth place Wisconsin. No team is favored in all of its games. No team is expected to have a double-digit win total. Indeed, Minnesota and Iowa are underdogs in 3 games apiece; Nebraska and Wisconsin in 4 games. However, Minnesota is favored at home over Iowa on Oct. 8, which would give the Gophers the inside track for the B1GCG in Indy.
After Northwestern dropped its second game of the season, they are on their way to becoming the doormat of the B1GW. Favored in only 4 remaining games, the Wildcats hopes of a bowl-bid may have evaporated. At this point Illinois is expected to win more games than Northwestern, but is favored in fewer: 3. Meanwhile, Purdue is only favored in one of its games the remainder of the year, its matchup with Nevada this week.
Here is a link to a similar table of schedule win probabilities based on FPI ratings.
FPI also expects the same four teams to have winning records. In order of expected wins, they are Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Nebraska and Iowa are essentially tied at the top, followed by Wisconsin, less than 0.3 wins behind. Minnesota lags by another 1.7 games. No team is favored in all of its games. No team is expected to have a double-digit win total. Iowa is an underdog in the fewest number of games: only one! Nebraska and Wisconsin are underdogs in three; and Minnesota, five.
The bottom line remains that the B1GW race is wide open in the statistical prediction sense. The consensus at this point is that Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin are all evenly matched teams within about 0.3 games of each other. On the other hand, ranging in expected wins from 6.8 to 8.2 and being an underdog in anywhere from three to five games, it still remains that Minnesota is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.
B1G West Expected Overall Wins
The bar plots below show the expected overall win distributions for the B1G West teams, in alphabetical order.
The story here is nearly the same as last week, except now add Iowa to Nebraska and Minnesota, whose distributions are almost indistinguishable (within 0.3 expected wins of each other, and the same mode of 8 wins). The distribution for Wisconsin tilts slightly to the lower side, but still with a mode of 8 wins as well. It appears highly unlikely that any team will have an undefeated season. Minnesota has the best chance of a one-loss season at 3.8%, followed by Iowa at 2.7% and Wisconsin at 1.3%.
Here is a link to a similar plot of conference win distributions based on FPI ratings.
The FPI results tell a similar story, but with Wisconsin and Minnesota essentially swapped - and Minnesota with a mode of 7 wins, instead of 8. The distributions for Iowa and Nebraska are practically identical, and Wisconsin tilts to the lower side.
Yours in football, and Go Blue!
Best Fight Songs.
Well it's football season again, and not only do we get to enjoy all the awesome games but also all the tradition, pageantry, fandom, and music that go into the package as well. I love fight songs in particular. Fight songs are a very particular genre of music, even within the larger set of college songs. Some are plain great, some are plain awful, and most fall in the middle. So here, for absolutely no reason, is the official unofficial listing of my national top ten (along with some comments on each), followed by my ranking of all of the B1G's fourteen fight songs. Enjoy!
1. THE VICTORS (Michigan). Can't disagree with John Philip Sousa's assessment of it as "one of the finest military marches, and the best original college song I ever heard." Michigan's secondary song, "Varsity," is spectacular for its Tin Pan Alley bent on the college song genre.
2. VICTORY MARCH (Notre Dame). Okay, basically call these top two choices numbers 1 and 1A, because they're clearly the two best fight songs in the country, and it's not close. I'm giving the edge to "The Victors" for a few reasons: (1) duh; (2) John Philip Sousa's assessment; and (3) Notre Dame's very wind-heavy band makes the "Victory March" sound a bit tinny in live performance, and also as if there's a rest at the end of each phrase of the chorus which leaves each phrase sounding unfinished. Notre Dame has two extraordinary secondary songs: "Hike, Notre Dame" would appear on this top ten list all on its own; and "When Irish Backs Go Marching By" is great as well. Add in the "Victory Clog" and a gorgeous alma mater, and Notre Dame might have the most glorious top-to-bottom array of original football music in the country.
3. YEA ALABAMA. Very original in the meter of setting its lyrics to a rollicking tune. Up-tempo and fun. Uses Alabama's 1926 Rose Bowl victory as a rallying cry, and references rivals Georgia ("Go teach the Bulldogs to behave") and Georgia Tech ("Send the Yellow Jackets to a watery grave"). The song begins with a mini-fanfare that's very effective after touchdowns.
4. FIGHT ON (Southern California). A classic. Though simple and repetitive in its lyrics, the tune is extremely catchy and morphs over two repeats from firstly a standard orchestration, then to a more delicate setting, and finally to a rather grand affair complete with fanfare ornamentations on each phrase.
5. (FIGHT THE TEAM) ACROSS THE FIELD (Ohio State). Another classic. As a fan of Gilbert & Sullivan opera I'm not going to argue with a fight song that includes the music of Arthur Sullivan by way of borrowing from "Hail, Hail, the Gang's All Here." "Set the earth reverberating with our mighty cheer" is a great lyric. OSU's secondary fight song, "Buckeye Battle Cry," is good enough to have made this list on its own.
6. SONS OF WESTWOOD (UCLA). UCLA stole this tune from one of Cal-Berkeley's secondary fight songs, "Big C." But UCLA gave it some great lyrics and a wonderful arrangement. A spectacular tune full of fun and interest in its treatment by UCLA, particularly in the ultra-legato "True to thee our hearts will be…" leading into an almost dissonant set of three connecting chords.
7. OSKEE WOW-WOW (Illinois). Maybe the country's most underrated fight song. Great lyrics and great melody, and based on the school's classic college cheer. Great use especially in conjunction with the clock's buzzer at basketball games, which usually rings on the same pitch as the held chord at the start of the chorus. (Despite the common perception due to Illinois's controversial use of native imagery over the years, the words "oskee wow-wow" are not meant as a faux American Indian exclamation. "Oskee" or a variation thereof was a not uncommon inclusion in schools' traditional athletic cheers -- a genre of expressing spirit now almost entirely arcane… think "Rock Chalk Jayhawk" as one of the few that still exist as being somewhat famous other than when the decrepit old cheerleader comes back to lead the student section for homecoming. Notable among other schools using "oskee" in cheers and still in their athletic traditions are Cal-Berkeley and Tennessee. Illinois's cheer went something like this: Oskee wow wow, Skinny wow wow, Illinois Illinois, Wow! "Oskee!" is apparently also traditionally used in some parts of the country, particularly at the high school level, as a shout to defenders after a turnover, alerting them that the ball has changed hands and that they need to block.) Illinois's secondary song, "Illinois Loyalty," is pretty good too.
8. ISU FIGHTS (Iowa State). The clear dark horse on this list. But a wonderfully catchy, up-tempo tune, with lots of great ornamentation accompanying the melody. A very effective meter and rhyme scheme in the last few phrases: "And when we hit that line, we'll hit it hard, every yard for I-S-U!"
9. RAMBLIN' WRECK FROM GEORGIA TECH. Classic! "Like all good jolly fellows, I drink my whiskey clear." Can you argue with that lyric? This song has its origins in an old drinking song, and it mostly still is one. Melodically it's a coincidental cousin of West Point's "On, Brave Old Army Team," another classic fight song (but which I find a bit too boring in its melody and saccharine in its lyrics to make a modern top ten list).
10. FIGHT ON, STATE (Penn State). I had a tough time deciding which song to include in the ten spot. There are several honorable mentions listed below, but each of those I think has one glaring flaw or other reason not to include it on the list. "Fight On, State" is simply a really good tune, with an excellent orchestration in its usual presentation. "Strike your gait and win" is a great lyric.
HONORABLE MENTIONS (in no particular order):
"I'm a Tar Heel Born" (North Carolina)
"Tiger Rag" (Clemson)
"Boomer Sooner" (Oklahoma)
"War Eagle" (Auburn)
"I'm a Jayhawk" (Kansas)
ALL B1G RANKED (see above for comments on 1-4):
1. THE VICTORS (Michigan).
2. (FIGHT THE TEAM) ACROSS THE FIELD (Ohio State).
3. OSKEE WOW-WOW (Illinois).
4. FIGHT ON, STATE (Penn State).
5. DEAR OLD NEBRASKA U (THERE IS NO PLACE LIKE NEBRASKA). Really solid melody, and there's something charming about starting off with the whimsical lyric, "There is no place like Nebraska…"
6. IOWA FIGHT SONG. A generally solid, middling fight song. Nothing extraordinary to recommend it especially. (Iowa's other song, "On, Iowa," is probably better, if a bit less rousing of a crowd.)
7. MSU FIGHT SONG (Michigan State). Ditto. Pretty good tune, but loses out to Iowa's for the weak lyrics; more rhyme in the chorus would go a long way here, and the natural spoken stresses of the lyrics don't very well match the meter of the tune.
8. THE BELLS MUST RING (Rutgers). Again, ditto.
9. GO U NORTHWESTERN. Here we get to the subpar songs of the conference. This is a generally annoying melody, but it redeems itself at the very end with some interesting meter.
10. INDIANA, OUR INDIANA. Unexciting melody, blah lyrics.
11. HAIL PURDUE! The chorus is annoying, and boring in the extreme. The melody and lyrics of the verses are actually quite good. Of course, it's the chorus that gets played. Purdue gonna Purdue.
12. MINNESOTA ROUSER. The opposite of "Hail Purdue!" This one is boring, and annoying in the extreme. Without the word "rah," half of this song couldn't exist. It only beats "On, Wisconsin!" for its reference to the school's classic "Ski-u-mah!" cheer. And for not sucking so hard.
13. ON, WISCONSIN! Boring, boring, boring, boring. Both music and lyrics. And to think this song competed with the "Minnesota Rouser" in the big 1909 fight song contest in Minneapolis to find a fight song for the Gophers before the writer pulled it out of the running to sell it to Wisconsin. Apparently, fight song writing talent was severely lacking in the Upper Midwest in the early days of the last century. Often this fight song is rated pretty highly, but I just don't understand it. Wisconsin still uses "There'll Be a Hot Time In the Old Town Tonight" as its secondary song (many schools, including Michigan, used it for their fight song in the 1890s); there's no way it's worse than "On, Wisconsin!"
14. MARYLAND FIGHT SONG. An abominable cacophony bordering on discord. Possibly the worst fight song in the country. Maryland's secondary song, "Maryland Victory," is shockingly nearly as bad.
Best and Worst: UCF
Meh: A Learning Experience
As someone who has worked at any company, ever, in the history of the world, I've had to suffer through my fair share of employee evaluations. Usually I've been the one evaluated, (very) occasionally the evaluator. They will obviously vary between institutions, but most follow a general script. You are asked to either evaluate yourself or your direct superior. Maybe it's on a spreadsheet, maybe it's a form, maybe it's just an email. Then you and your direct superior/HR rep/random person who got lost on the way to the bathroom sit down in a small conference room and stare at each other for a couple minutes while you wait for the WiFi to reconnect and each pull up the appropriate Google Doc, or fumble through a stack of nearly-identical printed-out forms with numbers next to fields like "Integrity" and "Passion for the Customer", as if not stealing and giving a crap about your job are attributes you can power up with Mana after killing ROUSes in swamps.
But whatever, the reviews tend to be full of generalizations and platitudes, because if you were really a bad employee, chances are you wouldn't still be employed there. But inevitably, there has to be a takeaway, an area of improvement, something to build on. It may be something trivial, or something you never even thought of, or the very thing that makes you look up impostor syndrome because you just knew there was a word for that feeling.
But in the end, things mostly go back to the way they were, maybe with incrementally more insight and self-awareness, because at some point you are what you are, and even with conscious effort there may only be a ceiling for what you can do in the near future.
This game felt like one of those meetings. At no point did UM even sniff trouble out of UCF; after punting on their first drive, UM scored on 6 straight possessions (4 TDs, 2 FGs) while UCF scored on one 87-yard drive that was (probably) helped by an uncalled hold or two but that was about it for the half. Scoring was down in the second half, mostly because UCF held onto the ball a bit longer and had 2 10+ play drives that barely went anywhere (42, 40) and ended on downs, but UM's offense just kept humming along.
Speight had a great day passing, going 25/37 for 312 and 4 TDs, and the three big targets (Darboh, Butt, and Chesson) all had at least 80 yards receiving, with Darboh and Butt both pulling in 2 TDs. The defense record 10 TFLs, including the first (of many) sacks by Rashan Gary, hit the QB about 8 times, forced two fumbles, and limited UCF to 2.5 ypa on 22 passes. The team also blocked 2 punts and 2 FGs, recovered a pooch kick following a kickoff that I LOVED when it happened and am even happier about the more I think about it, and Peppers nearly broke a punt for a TD to boot. Over the first two weeks of the season, UM has outscored their opposition by a total of 114 to 17. By any objective metric, this was a clinical ass-kicking, only (slightly) less impressive than the one they dished out last week.
But still, there were sore points that you have to highlight. QB runs continue to be an issue for UM's defense, though at least now it feels a bit like the struggles everyone has with mobile QBs and spread-to-run offensive attacks, as opposed to earlier eras when such plays were deemed "a fad" and "sorcery". But there were a couple of bad breaks in containment, when a LB or S didn't keep his lane or guys were able to get outside for big gains. Before going out with an injury, Justin Holman got a couple of long first-down scrambles on 3rd downs because UM failed to protect against the QB run, and against guys like J.T. Barrett and…well…J.T. Barrett those aren't just first-downs, they're scores. And UCF's two rushing TDs came on long runs where, again, people were out of position.
On the other side of the ball, the running game never really got on track. De'Veon Smith had a couple of runs where he sort of bulldozed over UCF defenders but that was about it for him; Chris Evans failed to follow up his sensational debut with anything memorable here, going for 37 yards on 9 carries. As a team, they didn't come close to cracking 4 ypc even if you excise sacks and whatever that was with Kenny Allen. Part of this was absolutely due to UCF daring UM to beat them in the air by sending 8 or 9 guys to stop the run, but at the same time it seemed like the offensive line and backs failed to pick up blitzers well or hold up their blocks at the edges; a couple of times UM would be close to breaking a run just to see a single LB or end push a blocker back or hold up a cutback just long enough to trip someone up. UCF has athletes on defense and are definitely a better team than they were last season, but the fact UM couldn't "impose its will" at the line of scrimmage offensively was a bit discouraging. I'll be interested to see how the line grades out this week.
So it wasn't a perfect weekend; UM has some things to work on. And at least for me, those areas are a bit more alarming because they are the areas people were most worried about coming into the year; namely, offensive line play and the ability for the defense to handle spread offenses with a focus on running. The defense I'm actually less worried about; it's still a bunch of guys breaking in a new system, and with so many guys shuttling in and out of the lineup it's not surprising an assignment or two might be busted when the score is so lopsided. But the offensive line is sort of what it's going to be this year. The younger guys like Newsome, Bredeson, Kugler, and Cole might improve a bit, but the rest of that line is sort of what it's going to be this year. Harbaugh said during the press conference he thought the line played fine, so it might just be a situation where UM didn't try to make UCF pay for their aggressiveness because of the score and situation. But you look at the upcoming schedule and you wonder how they'll hold up against Wisconsin, PSU, OSU, MSU, Iowa, and some of the other solid defensive clubs on the schedule. They may just be what they are in that aspect of the game, and the defense and passing attack will have to compensate a bit more.
So yeah, again, I'm not sure how much we can glean from a game that UM won by 37 , was up by 27 at the half, and showed basically nothing in the playbook on either side of the ball. But this week at least shows potential areas for concern and improvement.
Worst: Predicting Competiveness
Though it's hard to complain about getting a couple easy wins under your belt, I have seen fans lament the OOC schedule quality both at UM specifically and college football generally. The opening week of the season was pretty amazing considering you had maybe the best top-to-bottom collection of games in recent memory featuring some of the more storied programs in the country AND many of those games had memorable moments. The second week…not so much; the marquee game was a football game played in the middle of a NASCAR track between Virginia Tech and Tennessee, and to paraphrase Jeff Foxworthy, if that's your big football game, you might be a redneck (and out of ideas). And to make matters worse, the matchup itself isn't all that appealing; VT is breaking in a new coach after the great Frank Beamer returned to the mountains and Popeyes Chicken from whence he was birthed, while UT barely escaped Appalachian State and thought hiring the guy who was the offensive mastermind behind this made sense.
But yeah, quite a hangover after last week's festivities. But the thing is, you oftentimes schedule these games a couple years in the future; UCF was scheduled back in 2013. At that time, The Knights had gone 11-3, 5-7, and 10-4 (including 2 bowl wins) the previous 3 years, and then went 12-1 and won the Fiesta Bowl in 2013. This was a legitimate top G5 program; hell, half the teams in the Big 10 would have killed to have that level of consistency. By comparison, Colorado hasn't finished with a winning record since 2002, and haven't won 10+ games since 2001. And yet, a mere 3 years later UCF just suffered through a winless season and are breaking in a new coaching staff and having to pick through the wreckage for anything salvageable. And Colorado looks like a pretty decent Pac-12 team with a shot at being competitive in the South division as long as USC continues to not be vintage USC.
Now, some of you might construe this as a defense for Dave Brandon, who oversaw this scheduling. Please, put down your pitchworks. No, really, the fire, it burn…..
But no, this felt like an attempt to make a semi-competitive OOC schedule with a couple of "name" programs. And because Brandon loves to dump salt in wounds AND thinks getting revenge is beating teams during games ESPN broadcasters blabber on about a game that happened 22 years ago, he brought CU into the mix as well. That's right: 22 years ago. THE MEMORY OF THIS GAME I HAVE IS OLD ENOUGH TO DRINK WITH ME IN A BAR AND SCREAM "KNOCK IT DOWN!"
Sorry…As an aside, I'm so happy he's gone just because of dumb sh*t like this. He'd probably reschedule Toledo and Florida State if he could.
So yeah, watching UM demolish two teams by a combined eleventy billion points doesn't make for compelling television, but these games are always hard to predict years in the future; in 2007, I doubt anyone would have expected playing UM would hurt your overall SOS, and yet we've had a couple of years where UM was a below-average BCS team.
And going forward, there will be more marquee games against top-notch programs. But I think both UCF and CU will be good teams this year in their conferences, and it's been nice to see UM get more of a challenge than I expected going into the year. The fact UM is, again, going to blow the doors off everyone in the process is more a positive for the team and less an indictment of the opposition.
Worst: How is This So Hard?
In my preseason preview, I noted that UM hadn't had a thousand-yard rusher since the days of Denard, and that teams like Indiana, PSU, Northwestern, Minnesota, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Wisconsin had done it multiple times in the interim. I hoped that this year UM would finally have a back break out and establish, if not a dominant rushing attack, at least a dangerous one.
And yet, two weeks into the season I am still left wondering if the running game is going to be better that middling. Yes, UCF game planned extensively to stop the run, and my layman's view at times showed UM blocking the guys they could but simply being overwhelmed. And yes, UM was never going to show much against UCF in terms of wrinkles offensively, especially when simple play-action was working so well because, again, UCF decided that they were at least going to get blown out in the air, not in the air and on the ground.
The raw numbers, though, aren't all that inspiring. UCF recorded 6 TFLs for 22 yards (by comparison, Hawaii had 4 for 9), and UM averaged under 3 ypc on 41 carries. Yes, they didn't really need to run the ball much to dominate this game, but you still want to see a team with a bunch of seniors roll over a team that went 0-12 last year, and they simply didn't. The defensive gameplan was obviously to make UM a passing team (with disastrous results for the Knights), but still, lots of teams want to make Alabama, OSU, MSU, LS…okay, that last one's a bad example. But there are lots of teams that have to deal with the opposition trying to make them fight left-handed, and sometimes I just wish UM would smash defenses anyway. And for full disclosure, I have a vested interest in seeing Smith being the hammer, as he's one of the RBs on my fantasy football team (ha look, you just listened to a guy complain about his fantasy football team! Welcome to the sports internet, sponsored by Fan Kings, or Draft Duel, or whatever those DFF sites are called).
But still, it remains a run-first team with questions in the RB corps and the offensive line, and I'm still wondering if this is the ceiling for this club until they get more kids into the system. This may just be it, and that's fine, but for a team with huge goals they need to be able to move the ball on the ground effectively and (somewhat) opponent agnostically, and so this week was a bit of a disappointment. Again, I get that UM shredded UCF in the air and won the game by 37, and that they could come out next week and demolish CU on the ground for 350 yards and I'd be proven wrong. And this (in part) a complaint because there isn't that much to talk about this week, but it remains an issue I'll at least keep a cocked-eye on for the next couple of weeks, especially since PSU and Wisconsin await.
Meh: Day and Knight
And, now, where a contradict myself a bit from 1 section earlier. So, yeah, UCF picked up 275 yards on the ground and averaged 6.0 ypc in the process, including a huge 87-yard TD run where the aptly named Adrian Killins just ran away from everyone (that wasn't being held) down the sideline. It wasn't a great performance by any means, and I know I'm supposed to get that bombed-out feeling in the bit of my stomach like I did after IU and OSU last year. And yet…
Against both the Hoosier and the Buckeyes, Michigan was repeatedly gashed for big gains and really didn't have an answer. Against IU Jordan Howard seemed to be able to bounce off linebackers at will, while against OSU UM's insistence (or inability) to alter their safety play led to numerous "odd-man rushes" for Ezekiel Elliott and J.T. Barrett. Those games epitomized the ongoing problems UM has had with certain rushing attacks.
But against UCF, the damage was basically inflicted in three plays: the aforementioned 87-yard TD run and two scrambles by Justin Holman of 30 and 35 yards. Throw those 3 runs out, and UCF mustered around 3 ypc even with sacks excised. Now, I know yards count regardless of how you got them, but this game featured a couple of breakdowns, not a wholesale inability to adjust to the opposition. Add in the fact that UM was leading by 34 at the time of the long TD run, and it's hard for me to get overly concerned about this being a fissure in the run defense.
Of course, there are issues. Containment was lost on those two Holman runs, one in which Peppers came in way too deep and didn't get Holman in the backfield, which opened up the field for his run. And that Killins run featured a couple of players in the secondary taking less-than-optimal angles to the ball carrier.
At the same time, UM clearly wasn't rolling with a full defense, and even without seeing the guys on the field I can guess that UM wasn't leaving in all the starters by that point. And more generally, Scott Frost is trying to roll out his version of the Oregon offense at UCF, and those offenses are designed to catch teams in bad position and make them pay with good athletes. For as bad as UCF was last year, they've been recruiting as a top-3 program in the AAC for a couple years now. Their team looks a bit like RR's first year when he came to UM, where they are trying to take stock of what they have and fit it into their systems, but I expect this offense to look really scary in a couple of years.
Oh, buddy…
So ultimately, the takeaway defensively is that these are the (slight) growing pains breaking in Don Brown's system. Boring safety play is gone, and in its stead you'll sometimes see QBs get long runs or get a TD on your face. But then again, if those plays happen in the context of another blowout win, it's hard to get my dander up about it. Colorado will be an interesting challenge simply because they seem fully capable of scoring quickly (an average TD drive of 6 plays in 2:14) and often (a cool 100 points over the first two weeks against admittedly poor competition). UM will be such a massive jump in quality for the Buffs that I doubt they come close to replicating this offensive explosion, but I do expect there to be some breakdowns and a couple of big gains. But again, hard to get too concerned, especially considering how few offenses in conference are designed like the ones they've seen thus far.
Best: Peppers, man
Apparently there was some Twitter battle or beef or something because some local yokel eggs started giving him grief about not having an interception in his career while OSU players have more than 0. Maybe I'm just old, but 35-year-old me has no f*cking idea why you would engage Cro-Magnon fans of any stripe online when you are a fabulous athlete looking at million-dollar NFL paychecks in the near future and they are irrelevant talking heads screaming into a void of 1s and 0s in the hope of impressing other guys (and they are almost always other guys) with how much information you know about a player from another team. I know people are competitive and there is a certain level of abuse online that just becomes oppressive, but just felt like unnecessary effort on his part.
Because man, on the field Peppers has been dynamite. After 2 weeks, Peppers leads the team in tackles with 16, has 4 TFLs including a sack, has 2 QB hits, and continues to erase screens with cruel efficiency. The hype was huge coming into the year, but thus far Peppers has lived up to it. He's a game-changer defensively, and they haven't even really deployed him fully yet. UM has a lot of athletes on that side of the ball, but it's pretty clear how far Peppers stands out because of his rare combination of speed, power, and agility. So even if he doesn't collect a single deflected ball or sailed pass in his career, nobody who watches football is going to think Peppers isn't one of the best defenders in the country right now.
Best: The QB Book According to Harbaugh
In the second week of the 2015 season, against turrible Oregon St., Jake Rudock went 18/26 for 180 (!) yards and 1 (!!) INT, averaging about 7 ypa. That week began a stretch of 7(!!!) straight games wherein Rudock didn't crack 200 yards passing a game, and had a 4:4 TD:INT ratio. That cry you hear are the echoes of many people, including myself, who absolutely 100% thought that Rudock was either injured or just not that good, and believed Harbaugh should try out someone else at the position. We all know how that played out.
Two weeks into the 2016 season, Wilton Speight has completed 70% of his passes for 457 yards, 9.1 ypa, for 7 TDs and 1 INT. He continues to throw the ball into tight windows effectively, leading his receivers and scanning the field like a pro. Yes, the deep ball is still a bit of a work in progress, but in basically a year and a half Speight has gone from a guy Harbaugh bitched out on television to being one of the 2-3 best QBs in the conference. Anyone who still doubts Harbaugh's QB guru-ness, I don't know what to tell you.
And unlike against Hawaii, Speight had a great game while dealing with some pressure. UCF got two sacks and a couple more hits; they brought pressure and Speight had to move around and buy time in order to hit his receivers. He's not a runner but he moves better than you think, and with his height and quick release he can get the ball out under pressure well. He'll definitely be tested by Wisconsin in a couple of weeks, but it's amazing that Speight is basically Rudock at the end of 2015, when he torched a pretty good Florida defense and was basically the whole offense against OSU. I'm not expecting Speight to make an equally-dramatic ascension simply because he's starting from a higher level, but he looks like a completely different player out there than the guy who filled in against Minnesota, and credit goes to him and the staff for making that transformation a reality.
Worst: Salted Frost
This'll be quick, but it seems like everyone wants to get up-in-arms over Scott Frost Present and Scott Frost Past. See, back in 1997, when a decent number of the current UM fans were either not alive or barely aware of football, Frost was the QB for the undefeated Nebraska Cornhuskers, arguably the last time that program was considered a "true" national power. At the end of the year, there were 2 undefeated teams: Nebraska and UM. UM beat a pretty good Washington St. team, while Nebraska pantsed Peyton Manning's Tennessee Volunteers. Frost, as any rational person would do, petitioned for his team to be awarded at least a share of the national title, and (shockingly) his mother agreed. This is considered the words of the devil to some, though, and so a segment of the fanbase spent this week getting really upset about it. In fact, there are three parties I DO have anger toward regarding 1997, and they are (1) the refs in the Missouri game that failed to call an obvious kicked ball, (2) the coaches who voted in the final poll that thought it was a good idea to let Nebraska jump UM for no good reason after having UM ahead for most of the year, and (3) Peyton Manning for once again barely showing up in a meaningful game. Guy never beat Florida, won 2 SBs despite throwing more INTs (5) than TDs (3), and has an unhealthy man-crush on Pape John.
And then after the game, Frost told reporters that he thought his team, which (again) lost to UM by 37 points, "outhit these guys" and that he was proud of them. Yes, I get that Frost arguing the appearance of collisions was a relevant metric is a bit insane, but he's a head coach for a team that went 0-12 last year. He's not going to say "yeah, these young guys got the crap beaten out of them." And again, they averaged 6 ypc and held UM to under 3 ypc on the ground. His team came in and didn't roll over, and that's a credit to them and their coaches. But again, how am I supposed to feel?
The only anger I have toward Scott Frost is because I think him and Tyra should stand trial for the (justifiable) homicide of that one creep.
Best: So Much Special Teams
There are good days for special teams, and then there are days like Saturday. Kenny Allen went 3/3 on FGs, was perfect on extra points (as a Lions fan, NEVER TAKE THAT FOR GRANTED), and outside of one bad punt did a great job. On the other side, UM was getting hands on kicks all day, including a rather emphatic FG rejection. Plus, and this may have been my favorite play of the weekend, they forced a UCF fumble by high-kicking a ball after a penalty set the kickoff on the 50-yard line. So often, you see a team just boot that out of the endzone, but nope, UM forced UCF to at least return the ball and, as a result, were able to catch the Knights off-guard a bit and pick up an extra possession. Losing John Baxter back to USC will have an effect on the special teams, but at least thus far his one-year legacy is still bearing fruit. And in a season with such high expectations, having these types of plays might make all the difference.
Best: Bring on the Buffs
I thought CU would be a better team than some expected coming into the year, and thus far they've been impressive. Yes, that doesn't make me think they'll even come close to beating UM, but this is a program that (finally) seems to be figuring stuff out and competing in the Pac-12, and football is better than Colorado is competitive. Their offense is explosive, and they have a couple of playmakers on defense, chief amongst them Chidobe Awuzie, who should pose a tough matchup for whichever WR he lines up against. UM has quite a bit more talent, but I'm excited to see how both teams look this weekend. Plus, it'll continue to general upward trajectory of opponents just in time for the start of conference play.
Go Blue.
B1G Expectations: 2016 Week 1 Total Overall Win Probabilities
Total Wins Revisited
On the heels of the first week of the 2016 season, we can now bear witness to the shift from the relatively subjective preseason forecasts and prognostications to analyses based on the objective (if not deterministic) statistics generated from actual game play. The rub at thist juncture of course is that the statistics are not of the greatest quality for the purposes of predicting future performance for various reasons, not the least of which is the small sample size. The exercise of coming up with more reasons for ignoring these early season statistics are left as an exercise for the reader in the comments below. That said, it doesn't stop the publication of the statistics such as they are. Nor does it preclude the further rumination on said statistics into still more statistics as a means to enable further discussion, to jump to conclusions, to fly off of the handle or to goad your rival.
As you will recall, the previous diaries presented total win probability distributions for all Big Ten teams for the entire season as well as the in-conference schedules based on relative expected points ratings from Bill Connelly (S&P+), ESPN (FPI) and Ed Feng (Power Rank). To create their respective preseason forecasts, all of these fancy-stats based ratings use a completely different set of metrics than the in-season ratings. S&P+ uses 3 components: returning production, recent history, and a subjective element called recruiting impact. Similarly, ESPN made its preseason FPI sausage using three components similar to those of S&P+: returning starters, prior performance, and recruiting rankings; plus a fourth, coaching tenure.
Schedules, Spreads & Win Probabilities
Since we're still in the midst of the glorious non-conference segment of the season, it's a good time to jump back and review the overall schedules, but now with the updated albeit arguably flawed statistics applied.
Note that in the following table of schedules, the applied Red-Green color-map accentuates the forecast point spreads and win probability of each game. A color-shift toward the red corresponds to a more likely loss, and a green shift indicates a more likely win. Also, the colors for both columns are mapped to the win probability number. The sequence of individual win probabilities over the course of a team's schedule are then used to compute the distribution total expected wins for the entire season.
B1G East Schedule Rundown
The table of schedules below shows the overall schedules for all seven teams in the B1G East based on the Bill Connelly's S&P+ week 1 ratings. The last table simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GE teams based on their expected in-conference win totals - it's not a projection of divsional standings based on projected wins, losses, and tie-breakers.
What is notable with this new S&P+ statistical basis is that the love affair between S&P+ and our beloved Wolverines continues unabated from last season. Indeed, U-M is the only team that is favored in all of its games! That's right. You know what that means. The other three contenders - Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State - are underdogs in two, three and four games, respectively. The other three (Indiana, Maryland, Rutgers) remain cannon fodder, and at best may be bowl-eligible at the end of the season.
In the aggregate, Michigan looks to be the team to beat with about 10.2 expected wins, edging Ohio State for the top spot by just over 1.4 wins. Nearly 2 full games separate Ohio State from the next 2 teams, PSU and MSU. Michigan is the only team expected to have a double-digit win total.
As promised above, here are links to similar tables of schedule probabilities based on FPI Ratings and Power Rank-ings. These analyses differ to some extent, most notably that the spreads of expected win totals are not as wide, which suggests more closely contested races, and instead all of the "contenders" are underdogs in at least one game.
B1G East Expected Overall Wins
The bar plots below show the expected total overall wins distributions for teams in the B1G East, in alphabetical order. Noted above each bar is the probability for that number of wins (you may need to click & embiggen to read it). The bar with the highest value is the most likely outcome (the mode). Also marked on each plot is the expected overall win total (the mean). The last line plot is just an overlay of the same data from the other seven bar plots.
What remains noticeable from the preseason forecasts is how much higher the peak of Michigan's distribution is than any other team. The spread is also narrower, but that is less obvious. What this means is that not only does Michigan have the highest expected win total, but it is also the most likely to hit that mark. Also, Michigan has the highest mode of any team at 10 wins, one ahead of OSU follows at 9, followed by MSU and PSU with 8 apiece. Michigan also stands the best chance of having an undefeated season at 11.3% or about 9:1 odds, followed by OSU with a 1.3% likelihood.
Here are links to similar plots of conference wins probabilities based on FPI ratings and Power Rank-ings.
B1G West Schedule Rundown
The next table of schedules shows the overall schedules for all seven teams in the B1G West based on the Bill Connelly's S&P+ week 1 ratings. Again, the last table simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GW teams based on their expected win totals - it's not a projection of divisional conference standings per se.
In the case of the B1G West, the emergence of new S&P+ ratings brings with it a shuffling in the order of the four teams at the top. In order, they are now Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin. No team is favored in all of its games. Indeed, Minnesota, Nebraska and Iowa are all underdogs in 3 games, and Wisconsin is an underdog in four. Minnesota has the highest total expected wins, just ahead of Nebraska by 0.2 wins. Altogether, less than 0.9 wins separate Minnesota from fourth place Wisconsin.
The next tier of two teams - Northwestern and Illinois - are within 0.2 wins of each other, and at between 5 and 6 expected wins have a fighting chance at bowl eligibility, and as such may pose potential trap games to their opponents. Meanwhile, Purdue is only favored in one of its games the remainder of the year.
Here are links to similar plots of conference wins probabilities based on FPI ratings and Power Rank-ings.
FPI also forecasts the same four teams expected to have winning records: Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota - except with a much wider spread of total expected wins. No team is favored in all of its games. Iowa is an underdog in the fewest number of games: two. Nebraska and Iowa are underdogs in three; and Minnesota, six! Nebraska also has the highest total expected wins at 8.5, ahead of Iowa by just over 0.4 wins. Thus, it's Nebraska that looks to be the team to beat in the East, and Iowa is followed closely by Wisconsin.
PR is similar to the others, showing Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska and Minnesota as the contenders. However, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska are all underdogs in three games apiece, and are separated in total expected wins by only 0.5 wins altogether. Minny, on the other hand, is an underdog in five of its remaining games, and lags behind Iowa by 0.5 expected wins.
The bottom line is this: the B1GW race is wide open in the statistical prediction sense. The consensus at this point is that Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin are all evenly matched teams within about 0.5 games of each other. On the other hand, ranging in expected wins from 6.5 to 8.1 and being an underdog in anywhere from three to six games, it still remains that Minnesota is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.
B1G West Expected Overall Wins
The bar plots below show the expected in-conference win distributions for the B1G West teams, in alphabetical order.
What is noticeable by comparison here is how closely the distributions of Nebraska and Minnesota match up (within 0.2 expected wins of each other, and the same mode of 8 wins). The distribution for Iowa and Wisconsin are also nearly identical (also within 0.2 wins, with mode of 7 wins). It appears highly unlikely that any team will have an undefeated season. Minnesota has the best chance of a one-loss season at 3.6%, followed by Iowa at 1.4%.
Here are links to similar plots of conference wins probabilities based on FPI ratings and Power Rank-ings.
Yours in football, and Go Blue!
Game Day Weather
First off, thank you for everyone who has or is serving our country, we can never thank you enough for your service. Remember how last week was great weather? Maybe a little warm, but nice and sunny and dry? Well, not so much the case this week unfortunately. I'll be in A2 tomorrow and do my best to provide updates, but if you're headed to the game please keep an eye on things as severe storms can't be ruled out. We have a low pressure system that will first pull a warm front northward across the area tonight, bringing rain and storms late tonight and into early tomorrow morning. We then get a break before the low moves across the straits, dragging a cold front through the region. Storms will once again fire up ahead of the front in the afternoon, with strong storms possible. We have some upper level energy that will help with storm formation too. No doubt the Patriot Parachute Team will be tracking the weather for their jump. Expect relatively breezy WSW winds with temps in the 70s and humid conditions. So to sum up, while it's not a guarantee you'll use it at the game, you may want to grab the rain gear and be prepared. If you traveled for the weekend, the weather will be great Sunday - sun, low 70s, and low humidity.
If you're planning on heading out early, you may want to grab the umbrella and make sure you have a tent to be under. Rain looks to move out mid-morning, so maybe head out to breakfast and then head to the tailgate for some brewskis? The ground may be a little soggy, so it might not be the best day for your favorite white shoes either. We'll start the day in the mid 60s with a SW wind at 15mph, gusting into the low 20s (this is when you'd see small waves on the water, loose paper will blow about) so make sure you have something to hold down your plates & napkins! By mid-morning we'll be up around 70 and have sticky, humid conditions. We look to be dry with cloudy skies heading from the tailgate tent to the gates.
Lots of clouds to start this lunchtime game with a temperature of 75 degrees. It'll be very humid, and a bit breezy. We'll have steady SW winds at 15mph, still gusting into the low 20s. You may catch a few peeks of the sun here and there as we go throughout the first half of the game. Not going to rule out rain, but we might just catch a break here.
Up a degree or two by halftime with still plenty of humidity. Winds will start to pick up a bit. They'll still be out of the SW, but now up to 20mph and gusting up to around 25mph (you'd see moderate size waves and small trees sway). There will still be lots of clouds, and the chance for rain is low, but still there too.
As we get into our mid-afternoon, the cold front approaches, and we'll start to see more scattered showers and storms develop. There is the chance a few of these storms may have gusty winds, frequent lightning, and large hail - definitely not something to be caught outside in. Keep an eye on things and duck inside if a severe storm warning is issued. Temps top out leaving the game at 77 with a WSW wind at 20mph, gusting to 30mph (you'd see large waves, empty garbage cans might tip over). We'll have mostly cloudy skies with storms possible into the late afternoon. The chances for rain really diminish by the time we're having dinner. Winds will still be up into the evening though, turning behind the front to come out of the WNW at 20mph, still gusting to 30mph. If you'll be out late, we'll have a NW wind at 15mph, mainly clear skies, and temperatures down to around 60 degrees. Let's go blue!!
Christina Burkhart is the morning meteorologist for ABC in Flint, MI. She grew up in Ann Arbor and associates Saturdays with Michigan football. Go Blue!!
This Month in MGoBlog History - September 2006: The Season Starts 4-0
September 1 - Friday
It's Christmas eve; football is almost here.
Unverified Voracity: Creepy Baby. Should be titled Links that Don't Work. I would especially like to see the first one about Brian Kelly being crazy. What did that look like 10 years ago?
September 3 - Sunday
Game notes from the game 1 victory over Vanderbilt. Defense was very impressive, run game looked good, but the passing game was iffy.
September 4 - Monday
Somehow a game open thread two days after the game. Also included is a 'M' version of the Night Before Christmas.
Unverified Voracity: By S I Mean Herrmann with quotes about how much more simple and understandable the defense is this season for the players.
September 5 - Tuesday
UFR: Defense vs. Vanderbilt. English is better than Hermann.
English coaches like he's got a talent advantage. He swarmed Vandy instead of sitting back, waiting for them to make an error. Bend-but-don't-break is a rube's game suited for weaklings.
Woodley came in for a +12; Crable and Biggs each got +6s.
Blogpoll update. Tennessee is #1. Michigan is #9.
September 6 - Wednesday
Maxwell Pundit Week 1. Apparently, MGoBlog used to participate in a blogpoll equivalent of the Heisman. Brian's top three are: Calvin Johnson, Garrett Wolfe, and Buster Davis.
UFR: Offense vs. Vanderbilt. Things looked pretty good, except for maybe the right side of the line (Mitchell/Riley).
What did you like about the dawn of DeBord Era II?
Internet malcontents will be malcontents, but they did get a few of their wishes granted. Michigan's base formation was a three-wide set, something long desired by crabby message-boarders. The zone running game vastly reduced the prevalance of the fullback shuffle. The waggle re-emerged as a weapon.
Side note, it seems weird to me that Brandon Minor was in this game. I associate him with the Rodriguez years so much and forget that he was contributing two years before that.
September 7 - Thursday
Update on Brian's work at AOL Fanhouse.
An interview with CMU alum Brian Seymour about the upcoming game. It's an interesting read with thoughts about the legacy of DeBord, Brian Kelly's crazy play calling, and how a spread offense works.
A collection of links that Brian was not able to post during the last few days.
September 8 - Friday
I have a LeFevour and the only prescription is the most obvious reference available.
Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:
Jamison debuts and gets a sack.
Morgan Trent emerges as the starter opposite Hall.
27-14; panic spreads like wildfire.
September 9 - Saturday
September 11 - Monday
Blogpoll Ballot Week 2. OSU is #1. 'M' is #8.
Somebody submitted a ballot to the blogpoll with San Jose State on it. Brian believed this was done just to get attention and tossed the ballot. They weren't happy.
September 12 - Tuesday
Brian reviews film of Notre Dame's game against Georgia Tech. His conclusions include: Brady Quinn isn't that good, and ND played a very 2005 version of Lloydball.
Brian discusses the upcoming ND game with the House Rock Built blog. Lots of discussion on their mood for this game each year and about the history of the last few games.
Maxwell Pundit Week 2. Troy Smith #1 and Calvin Johnson #2.
September 13 - Wednesday
Brian reviews film of Notre Dame's game against Penn St. His conclusions include: PSU's coaching staff is dumb, Quinn is better but still not that good, and Victor Abiamiri is going to give Rueben Riley more problems.
UFR: Defense vs. Central. Good, but not as great as against Vanderbilt. Woodley got a +8, Branch +5, but Englemon -3.
September 14 - Thursday
UFR: Offense vs. Central. This is the first offensive UFR to use number grades. Kraus and Oluigbo both get +3, but Riley gets a -5. Brian admits it's still a work in process.
September 15 - Friday
Brian does a podcast with House Rock Built. Apparently, he talked about when he puts on pants, which is ironic that he discussed this topic on the recent WTKA podcast (9/1/16).
Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:
Woodley is neutralized.
Hart goes for 150.
27-24, Michigan.
A link to "voracity-type substance" on Brian's AOL site.
September 17 - Sunday
Notre Dame game thread with gleeful update.
Brady Quinn spent the day attempting to remember where he was, then quickly attempting to pretend he was anywhere else. Sorry, kid: there's no happy place on this field. There are only angry places filled with men named Crable, Woodley, Branch, and Burgess.
September 18 - Monday
Some great ND schadenfreude.
As disappointing as this loss is/was/will be, do not forget how Pete Carroll struggled in years 1, 2 and 3.
In year two, Carroll struggled to an 11-2 record and Orange Bowl victory over Iowa. In year three, Carroll struggled his way to national championship.
Unverified Voracity: Victory. With lots of perspectives on the victory, including victory sandwiches and how MGoBlog shirts can make you prophetic.
Brady Quinn for Heisman highlight video! But sadly it no longer works.
September 19 - Tuesday
Maxwell Pundit: Week 3 complete with Brian talking in pirate lingo. One through three is Troy Smith, Dwayne Jarrett, and Lamarr Woodley.
Quinn lets it rip on the first play from scrimmage. Weis is such a genius. It catches us so off guard that Morgan Trent(+2) is in better position than Samarwhatever and can slow up a bit to impede his progress.
This was a dominating performance and 1997 comparisons are beginning to be mentioned. No negatives were given. Crable was +9, Hall +8, and Branch +7.
September 20 - Wednesday
Unverified Voracity: Victory Edition the Sequel is just what it says, lots more takes on Michigan's recent win.
UFR: Offense vs. Notre Dame. A few concerns about the run game, but with putting up 47 points, there are obviously few concerns. Manningham with +9 and Hart with +7. Long and Eckert both had -3.
September 21 - Thursday
Brian interviews two Wisconsin bloggers about the upcoming game. Nothing earth-shattering in hindsight, but it's still an interesting read.
Blogpoll Roundtable looks at the beginning of the season and predicts where things will go from here.
Brian takes up the fight against bad journalism by shredding a piece from Matt Hayes.
September 22 - Friday
Nobody Expects Unverified Voracity. A backup Wisconsin LB will miss the game because he stole a moped. Also, 'M' hockey gets a commit from Chris Brown.
Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:
PJ Hill averages 2.5 YPC.
Breaston scores.
24-6, Michigan.
September 25 - Monday
make no mistake: this was nearly as beat-down-errific as the Notre Dame game, except in this game Michigan won going away with a -2 in the turnover margin column* instead of a +4.
Also, this is very prescient to the 2016 season; not unlike "The Story: 2016".
And thus severe cognitive dissonance in the Michigan fanbase. Stung by the Year of Infinite Pain and previous Years of Unnecessary But Thankfully Finite Pain, there is a hestiancy to predict anything better than 10-2, to envision horrible losses to teams with no business on the same field as Michigan (I'm looking at you, Penn State), to prepare for the inevitable hammer blow to the chest courtesy a wacky punt formation or foolish confidence in a slim lead or the plain bloody-mindedness of the universe. We hesitate. We don't want to go through that again.
And yet... this team is not last year's team.
(i.e. any team from the last eight years)
Analysis of recent MSU and OSU games. Drew Stanton is running more, and Troy Smith looked fairly pedestrian against Penn State.
Blogpoll ballot week 4: Brian. Auburn is #1, followed by Michigan and Ohio State.
September 26 - Tuesday
UFR: Defense vs. Wisconsin. Another stellar outing by the defense. The line was strong, led by +12 from Branch, +7 from Woodley, +6 for Taylor, and +5 from Will Johnson.
Brian interviews Jay Mariotti. Really.
Maxwell Pundit Ballot. Calvin Johnson is back to top, followed by Alan Branch, and Troy Smith.
Unverified Voracity: Kamoku Rage because some UW player named James Kamoku was twisting Breaston's leg after a punt return tackle.
September 27 - Wednesday
Blogpoll ballot week 4: official. Top three OSU, Michigan, and Auburn.
And a closer look at individual blogpoll ballots.
Brian has gotten a couple reports that Morgan Trent's hand is broken.
Unverified Voracity Has No Catchy Title. The defense is starting to get some national hype, and Mike Valenti rants.
September 28 - Thursday
UFR: Offense vs. Wisconsin. Another strong performance by Manningham, but there are concerns about DeBord's playcalling, which shouldn't come as a surprise. Brian decided to ditch the +/- system on offense for now until he can perfect it.
September 29 - Friday
Morgan Trent rumors are now determined to be false.
Brian takes a look at the Minnesota vs. Purdue game. Their passing game looks terrible, running game is ok, and the defense is solidly meh.
Brian backs off his Morgan Trent rumor back off, so no one is quite sure what's going on. You think Counter-Strike rumors are bad, this one involved someone passing along Trent's IM away message.
Minnesota preview. Doesn't look like they are going to pose much of a threat.
Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:
Still many first-down runs into stacked fronts.
Arrington scores.
30-10, Michigan.


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Balked by vested interests from delivering a revelatory report on the sewage that is contaminating the spa waters of the town's new baths, this academic-looking figure flies off the handle with a steadily mounting velocity. The deeper pollution is a moral one, he argues. The solid majority have proved themselves the sullied majority. Let the whole town be exterminated rather than live on a lie. It's clear that he shocks himself, too, with the throttled vehemence of these transports, but by now his survival instinct can't compete with his blazing sense of being a one-man decontaminating mission. This is Dr Thomas Stockmann, as brilliantly portrayed by Ian McKellen, in Trevor Nunn's mighty Olivier staging of Ibsen's An Enemy of the People.
London audiences were last treated to this rarely performed play in Arthur Miller's anti-McCarthyite 1950s adaptation. This distorts the original by removing the risky rant and transforming Stockmann into a much less equivocal champion of the individual's right to challenge corrupt society. An Enemy of the People was written in reaction to the near-stoning Ibsen had received for his previous play, Ghosts. The temptation to use it for an exercise in simple self-vindication must have been strong. Equally, given the modern parallels with contamination and attempted cover ups a producer might feel it would be easier to sell the play as a more black- and-white campaigning piece.
Using an admirably involving translation by Christopher Hampton, this new production refuses to buckle to any such pressures. It allows Enemy of the People to emerge as what it is: an uncomfortable, fascinating drama about how truth can wind up being guarded by very clumsy hands. At first, I had my doubts about the pictorial sweep of the staging. Nunn, who takes up office as the new Director of the National Theatre on 1 October, could be forgiven for thinking that now would be a good time to knock everyone dead with a reminder of his flair for animating a large canvas.
But the whirl of life at the start - the peak-capped urchins racing over the multi-sectioned revolve, the brass band that marches through, the picturesque stall selling shares in the new spar - has the slightly synthetic bustle one associates with big musicals. Ibsen's play takes place in interiors. Here, though, there's a huge shipyard surround, all masts, fishing nets and sou'westered types; clouds are in ceaseless scud across the cyclorama. John Napier's set, topped off with a tall water tower, is the kind that cries out for a chase scene. It gets this in the riot after the public meeting which Nunn stages out of doors, with the listening towns folk gathered down the isles of the theatre to listen. Even people who find themselves thinking wistfully of the Lyttelton, will have to agree that, for this scene, the Olivier's forum-like space is ideal.
It's in the non-editorialising detail of the performances that the production scores. McKellen's Stockmann starts off a bit too hyperactive in his willed jolly sociability, but all the contradictions of the man are superbly in place: the naive vanity (his protests against being given a hero's torchlight parade sound, touchingly, like little dropped hints); the ironic sense, in his eagerly pally dealings with the (untrustworthy) young newspaper men, that he's more of a follower than a leader; the splendid mock-flusteredness and the explosive sarcasm with which he first tricks and then blasts away his enemies in the final act.
To his daughter, played by Lucy Whybrow, he's a shining hero. To his mayor-brother, Stephen Moore, he's a major irritant and threat. To his devoted, exasperated wife, Penny Downie, he's domestic ruin waiting to happen. McKellen lets you see that there is justification for all these views. At the end, ostracised, their house and their realistic prospects in the community smashed, this Stockmann whisks his family up to the heights of the water tower where they stand in huddled defiance. Some may think this a melodramatic gesture, typical of a thrilling yet overblown production. But the final tableau is ambiguous, smacking as much of self-deception and uncertainty as of heroic hope.
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Let us know when your receive great advice so we can thank our lawyers and point others with similar questions in the right direction.Got it!
My father passed away recently and we have been unable to find any personal documents. We do have a key to his safe deposit box where these things may be stored. We are not aware of which bank may have his safe deposit box. How do we find out and if we do how do we access it? i am the sole survivor.
go to the bank and ask them what legal documents they need to open box. They will probably require you to go to court and get Letters of Probate appointing you executor.
The response given is not intended to create, nor does it create an ongoing duty to respond to questions. The response does not form an attorney-client relationship, nor is it intended to be anything other than the educated opinion of the author. It should not be relied upon as legal advice. The response given is based upon the limited facts provided by the person asking the question. To the extent additional or different facts exist, the response might possibly change. Attorney is licensed to practice law only in the State of California. Responses are based solely on California law unless stated otherwise.
Go here: http://www.leginfo.ca.gov/calaw.html
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I do not know who click the thumbs down, but the probate code is very clear on how to get into the box, and "letters" are definitely not required. Take a look.
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Greetings Guest!!Dismiss Notice
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Event for 11-9 postponed until next weekend
Discussion in 'UO Lake Austin' started by LakeAustin EM Feed, Nov 9, 2013.


text: The Tide DesktopAlan Henry10/11/13 5:00amFiled to: Featured DesktopDesktopsWallpapersCustomizationThemesSkinsWindowsRainmeterHud144EditPromoteShare to KinjaToggle Conversation toolsGo to permalink Chris Sm sent in this desktop for us to review, which combines a really interesting wallpaper with some subtle Windows tweaks that overall don't look crazy or out of place, but still make for a really personal look and feel. Here's how he did it. Advertisement Speaking of new desktops for review, new entries in our desktop showcase are running a little thin, so don't wait, post your customized desktop for the world to see! All you have to do is post a nice big screenshot of your work to your kinja blog (the one that came with your commenter account), and include links to the wallpaper, widgets, skins, and tools you used to customize it!If you're looking to recreate Chris's desktop on your Windows machine, here's what you'll need to do it: Advertisement The big fish wallpaper (also the album cover for Owl City's The Midsummer Station)The Rainmeter system tweaking and monitoring tool for WindowsThe Enigma suite for Rainmeter for the calendar, now playing, system monitors, and other widgetsThe Portal 2 Desktop Theme for Rainmeter for the clock and the date displaysThe Eclipse 2 icon pack to replace the taskbar iconsThe Start Killer utility to remove the Start buttonThe Shine 2.0 theme for Windows 7 to customize the overall look and feelIt's a couple of moving parts, but I really like the way the time and date, the calendar, and all the to-dos and everything are arranged over the wallpaper. The wallpaper is interesting enough, but put together the whole thing just looks like fun to use, without being overly cluttered or busy with widgets and buttons. This one shouldn't be too difficult to put together, but if you do have any questions, Chris's flickr page has some more detail on how he put it all together, and he was kind enough to answer my questions about it. While you're there, let him know how much you like his work!Do you have a good-looking, functional desktop of your own to show off? Share it with us! Post it to your personal Kinja blog using the tag desktop showcase or add it to our Lifehacker Desktop Show and Tell Flickr pool. Screenshots must be at least at least 640x360 and please include information about what you used, links to your wallpaper, skins, and themes, and any other relevant details. If your awesome desktop catches our eye, you might get featured! Sponsored the tide | FlickrReply14 repliesLeave a reply


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Jets beat writer Rich Cimini of ESPNNewYork.com takes an in-depth look at the team's secondary Wednesday. This is one of the most interesting parts of the team, because the cornerbacks are the strength and the safeties could be a potential weakness.
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With [Darrelle] Revis and [Antonio] Cromartie, the Jets have one of the top cornerback tandems in the league. They're perfect in Rex Ryan's man-to-man scheme. They go three deep at corner if you count [Kyle] Wilson, who figures to play about 50 percent of the snaps -- pretty much the standard number for a nickel back these days. Cornerback play never has been more important in the AFC East, which includes two spread offenses (Patriots and Bills) and a new West Coast attack (Dolphins) that will try to be Green Bay South (sans Aaron Rodgers).
Cimini also points out the potential for a Revis holdout and what that means for the Jets.


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By Stephanie Storm
Beacon Journal sports writer
Golden Flashes coach Geno Ford deserves a big portion of the credit for his team's turnaround, a second-year ''players' coach'' having the guts to bench three starting upperclassmen after back-to-back losses to Miami and Bowling Green.
''Sometimes the best way to motivate is to have them sit down at the end of the bench next to the trainer,'' Ford said.
Ford and his staff got the intended response from the demotion of senior guard Chris Singletary and Tyree Evans and junior guard Rodriquez Sherman in the form of consecutive blowouts over Buffalo and rival Akron at the M.A.C. Center.
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''What you hoped would happen is what has happened,'' Ford said. ''That's that they would dig deep and look inward and be mature about it and take it as a challenge. To be honest, coaching is not an exact science. You never know how certain guys are going to handle things at certain times during the year. They very easily could have sulked and pouted and gotten into themselves.''
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''They physically manhandled us,'' Akron coach Keith Dambrot said, and he wasn't exaggerating.
Kent State hadn't had back-to-back 80-point games in MAC play since the 2005-06 season.
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Keeping tabs on Kent State's transformation last week in preparation for tonight's cross-divisional play, Toledo coach Gene Cross was asked in a conference call what he'll need to do to prepare his inexperienced team for the surging Flashes.
''You mean aside from hoping their bus breaks down?'' Cross asked.
Seriously, though, Cross fully grasps what a daunting task playing KSU is now with the veteran Flashes on such a roll.
''You have to stop them in transition,'' he said. ''Rod Sherman and Tyree Evans, they get the ball out and they push it at you. Then they have [Mike] McKee come off the bench and spread the lanes. They push it up there and get easy baskets in transition. They have been scoring the ball and defending unbelievably the last two games.
''Somehow, we have to come out and match their intensity and try to slow them down a little bit.''
Now, it's up to Ford and his staff to work a different kind of magic.
''Our issues have been that we've handled adversity better than we've handled success,'' Ford said.
University of Toledo coach hopes slow, easy wins the race - Toledo Blade


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How do I know what my calorie intake needs to be?
Just wondering if you guys have links or info on how many calories I need to take in to be able to lose weight? I want to lose about 10 pounds and I'm just guessing at the moment as to what my calorie intake should be; I've been trying to stay between 1300 and 1500 calories and I do work out most days of the week for an average of 45 min. Obviously I don't want my calorie intake to be too high, but I also don't want it to be too low and shut down my metabolism. Any thoughts? Thanks in advance!
Wed. Mar 25, 10:39pm
This site has a handy little calculator for you. Just take your BMR, subtract 500 and that should be what you should aim for in a day.
Wednesday, April 08, 2009, 6:24 PM
My BMR is only 1300; I'd starve to death if I subtracted 500 from my BMR!! I use my BMR as my daily calorie target, which is another way you can go about it. (BMR doesn't include ANY movement or exercise - it is essentially the calories you need to exist assuming you stay in bed all day.)
The link the pp provided is a good one, and if I subtracted 500 from that number, I'd be in good shape and it's close to my BMR.
Wednesday, April 08, 2009, 7:42 PM
My BMR is only 1300; I'd starve to death if I subtracted 500 from my BMR!! I use my BMR as my daily calorie target, which is another way you can go about it. (BMR doesn't include ANY movement or exercise - it is essentially the calories you need to exist assuming you stay in bed all day.)
The link the pp provided is a good one, and if I subtracted 500 from that number, I'd be in good shape and it's close to my BMR.
Wednesday, April 08, 2009, 7:42 PM
6:24 - curious...are you assuming the number you're getting from that link is your BMR? That number probably *includes* the BMR as part of the calculation, but it also includes activity - subtracting 500 calories from THAT number works.
A person's BMR represents a base calorie need - it doesn't include the energy/calories needed to exist beyond staying in bed all day. Subtracting from your BMR would be way too low for most people. To experiment, I added 80 pounds to my weight to see what my BMR would be - it was *only* 1600. Subtracting 500 calories from that is still a very low number.
Wednesday, April 08, 2009, 7:52 PM
However much you are currently eating, if you are not loosing weight you need to eat less and exercise more.
Thursday, April 09, 2009, 12:05 AM
how much i am eating..
i worked out my bmr its 1478
im eating 1200-1400 cals a day
and my excercises mount up to 500-600 a day
i want to lose weight yes, but cutting down cals further and excercising more is just unhealthy dont you agree?
Thursday, April 09, 2009, 4:50 PM
I agree, in fact unless you've been put on a very low calorie diet by a doctor, I think even 1200-1400 is low, if you're burning 500-600. I'd aim for 1200-1400 AFTER exercise. Anything much lower than that would be very hard to maintain in the longer term.
Thursday, April 09, 2009, 5:06 PM
4:50p - your calorie plan sounds great.
1200-1400 cals is very reasonable for many people, even when doing vigorous exercise.
Thursday, April 09, 2009, 5:20 PM
You're a long way from a starvation diet. Many times we are actually consuming more calories than we think we are, and exercising less than we would like to think we are. Your weight is determined by how much you eat and how little you exercise.
Saturday, April 11, 2009, 10:27 PM
10:27p - amen!
Sunday, April 12, 2009, 11:49 AM
you shouldnt even be on this forum, its never about starving yourself, thats as far from healthy as you can get, it takes people longer to lose weight when embarking on a new excercise regime because muscle is being gained, your weight is not just about how little you excercise and how much you eat that is so ignorant to say, we all know there are many factors to that equation. all i can say is listen to your body, it works with you not against you, and if you're patient you'll acheive what you want to acheive and thats NOT just weight loss, but also a healthier fitter person in you.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009, 5:54 AM
Related PEERtrainer Thread:
How Many Calories Do I Need To Consume To Lose Weight?
Thursday, September 23, 2010, 12:08 PM
I checked out that link to find out what my numbers would be. It came out to 2491 than I subtracted the 500 and it says 1991. The past 2 days I have consumed less than 900 calories a day. I cut out all sweets and that is what is left over. LOL
I started keeping track of everything I eat. I drink 99% water so that isn't a problem for me.
Saturday, September 25, 2010, 5:09 AM
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