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Killing Them Softly?
Just a very quick and unstructured note on Greece. There is lots of confusion under the sky, and it seems to me that creditors are today advancing in sparse order.
Yesterday something rather upsetting happened, as the Eurogroup suspended bailout payments because Greece engaged in some extra expenditures. These are mostly targeted to pensioneers and to the Greek islands that had to endure unexpected costs linked to the refugee crisis. Unexpectedly, the Commission is siding with Greece, with Pierre Moscovici arguing that the country is on target, and that its effort has been remarkable so far. In fact, I have understood, Greece is doing so well that it overshot the target of structural surplus for 2016, and it it these extra resources that it is engaging in order to soft the impact of austerity.
And then there is the IMF, accused by Greece of pushing for more austerity, is also under attack from EU institutions (Eurogroup and Commission) for its refusal to join the bailout package. The Fund has hit back, in a somewhat irritual blog post signed by Maurice Obstfeld and Poul Thomsen (not just any two staffers) and seems not to be available to play the scapegoat for a program that in their opinion was born flawed. In fact, I think that more than to Greece, Obstfeld and Thomsen have written with the other creditors in mind.
I have two considerations, one on the economics of all this, one on the politics.
- I think I will side with the IMF on this. At least with the recent IMF. Since the very beginning The IMF has dubbed as irrealistic the bailout package agreed after the referendum of 2015 . The effort demanded to Greece (the infamous 3.5% structural surplus to be reached by 2018) was recognized to be self-defeating, and the IMF asked for more emphasis on reform, with in exchange a more lenient and realistic approach to fiscal policy: debt relief and much lower required suprluses (1.5% of GDP). In other words, the IMF seems to have learnt from the self-defeating austerity disaster of 2010-2014, and to have finally an eye to the macroeconomic consistency of the reform package. I still believe that the bailout should have been unconditional, and require reforms once the economy had recovered (sequencing, sequencing, and sequencing again). But still, at least the IMF now has a coherent position. Moscovici's FT piece linked above also seems to go in the same direction, arguing that nothing more can be asked to Greece. It falls short of acknowledging that the package is unrealistic, but at least it avoids blaming the country. And then there is the Eurogroup, actually, Mr Dijsselbloem and Schauble (let's name names), that did not move an inch since 2010, and fail to see that their demands are slowly (?) choking the Greek economy, stifling any effort to soften the hardship of the adjustment.
- The political consideration is that the hawks still give the cards, as they dominate the eurogroup. But they are more isolated now. Evidence is piling that the eurozone crisis has been mismanaged to an extent that is impossible to hide, and that the austerity-reforms package that the Berlin View has imposed to the whole eurozone is a big part of the explanation for the political disgregation that we see across the continent. The more nuanced position of the Commission, the IMF challenge to the policies dictated by the hawks, therefore represent an opportunity. There is a clear political space for an alternative to the Berlin View and to the disastrous policies followed so far. The question is which government will be willing (and able) to rise to the occasion. I am afraid I know the anwser.
What Went Wrong with Jean-Baptiste
The news of the day is that François Hollande will not seek reelection in May 2017. This is rather big news, even it if was all too logical given his approval ratings. But what went wrong with Hollande's (almost) five years as a President?
Well, I believe that the answer is in a post I wrote back in 2014, Jean-Baptiste Hollande. There I wrote that the sharp turn towards supply side measures (coupled with austerity) to boost growth was doomed to failure, and that firms themselves showed, survey after survey, that the obstacles they faced came from insufficient demand and not from the renown French "rigidities" or from the tax burden. I was not alone, of course in calling this a huge mistake. Many others made the same point. Boosting supply during an aggregate demand crisis is useless, it is as simple as that. Allow me to quote the end of my post:
Does this mean that all is well in France? Of course not. The burden on French firms, and in particular the tax wedge, is a problem for their competitiveness. Finding ways to reduce it, in principle is a good thing. The problem is the sequencing and the priorities. French firms seem to agree with me that the top priority today is to restart demand, and that doing this "will create its own supply". Otherwise, more competitive French firms in a context of stagnating aggregate demand will only be able to export. An adoption of the German model ten years late. I already said a few times that sequencing in reforms is almost as important as the type of reforms implemented.
I am sure Hollande could do better than this…
It turns out that we were right. A Policy Brief (in French) published by OFCE last September puts all the numbers together (look at table 1): Hollande did implement what he promised, and gave French firms around €20bn (around 1% of French GDP) in tax breaks. These were compensated, more than compensated actually, by the increase of the tax burden on households (€35bn). And as this tax increase assorted of reshuffling was not accompanied by government expenditure, it logically led to a decrease of the deficit (still too slow according to the Commission; ça va sans dire!). But, my colleagues show, this also led to a shortfall of demand and of growth. A rather important one. They estimate the negative impact of public finances on growth to be almost a point of GDP per year since 2012.
Is this really surprising? Supply side measures accompanied by demand compression, in a context of already insufficient demand, led to sluggish growth and stagnating employment (it is the short side of the market baby!). And to a 4% approval rate for Jean-Baptiste Hollande.
OFCE happens to have published, just yesterday, a report on public investment in which we of join the herd of those pleading for increased public investment in Europe, and in particular in France. Among other things, we estimate that a public investment push of 1% of GDP, would have a positive impact on French growth and would create around 200,000 jobs (it is long and it is in French, so let me help you: go look at page 72). Had it been done in 2014 (or earlier) instead of putting the scarce resources available in tax reductions, things would be very different today, and probably M. Hollande yesterday would have announced his bid for a second mandate.
In a sentence we don't need to look too far, to understand what went wrong.
Two more remarks: first, we have now mounting evidence of what we could already expect in 2009 based on common sense. Potential growth is not independent of current economic conditions. Past and current failure to aggressively tackle the shortage of demand that has been plaguing the French – and European – economy, hampers its capacity to grow in the long run. The mismanagement of the crisis is condemning us to a state of semi-permanent sluggish growth, that will keep breeding demagogues of all sorts. The European elites do not seem to have fully grasped the danger.
Second, France is not the only large eurozone country that has taken the path of supply side measures to pull the economy out of a demand-driven slump. The failure of the Italian Jobs Act in restarting employment growth and investment can be traced to the very same bad diagnosis that led to Hollande's failure. Hollande will be gone. Are those who stay, and those who will follow, going to change course?
Perseverare Diabolicum
Yesterday the Council decided that Spain and Portugal's recent efforts to reduce deficit were not enough. This may lead to the two countries being fined, the first time this would happen since the inception of the euro.
It is likely that the fine will be symbolic, or none at all; given the current macroeconomic situation, imposing a further burden on the public finances of these two any country would be crazy.
Yet, the decision is in my opinion enraging. First, for political reasons: Our world is crumbling. The level of confidence in political elites is at record low levels, and as the Brexit case shows, this fuels disintegration forces. It is hard not to see a link between these processes and, in Europe, the dismal political and economic performances we managed to put together in the last decade (you are free pick your example, I will pick the refugee crisis (mis) management, and the austerity-induced double-dip recession).
But hey, one might say. We are not here to save the world, we are here to apply the rules. Rules that require fiscal discipline. And of course, both Portugal and Spain have been fiscal sinners since the crisis began (and of course before):
Once we neglect interest payments, on which there is little a government can do besides hoping that they ECB will keep helping, both countries spectacularly reduced their deficit since 2010. And this is true whether we take the headline figures (total deficit, the dashed line), or the structural figures that the Commission cherishes, i.e. deficit net of cyclical components (the solid lines). Looking at this figure one may wonder what they serve to drink during Council (and Commission) meetings, for them to argue that the fiscal effort was insufficient…
What is even more enraging, is that not only this effort was not recognized as remarkable by EU authorities. But what is more, it was harmful for these economies (and for the Eurozone at large).
In the following table I have put side by side the output gaps and fiscal impulse, the best measure of discretionary policy changes1. I have highlighted in green all the years in which the fiscal stance was countercyclical, meaning that a negative (positive) output gap triggered a more expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. And in red cases in which the fiscal stance was procyclical, i.e. in which it made matters worse.
Output Gap and Discretionary Fiscal Policy Stance | ||||||
Portugal | Spain | EMU 12 | ||||
Output Gap | Fiscal Impulse | Output Gap | Fiscal Impulse | Output Gap | Fiscal Impulse | |
2009 | -0.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 3.9 | -1.9 | 1.4 |
2010 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | -2.3 | -0.5 | 0.7 |
2011 | 0.6 | -5.9 | -0.3 | -1.1 | 0.4 | -1.6 |
2012 | -3.2 | -3.7 | -3.3 | -0.7 | -1.1 | -1.1 |
2013 | -4.1 | -0.9 | -5.4 | -4.4 | -2.1 | -0.9 |
2014 | -3.2 | 2.9 | -4.8 | -0.2 | -2.0 | -0.1 |
2015 | -2.0 | -1.7 | -2.8 | 1.2 | -1.3 | 0.2 |
2016 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.7 | 0.2 | -0.8 | 0.3 |
2017 | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.9 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.2 |
Source: Datastream – AMECO Database | ||||||
Note: Fiscal Impulse computed as change of cyclically adjusted deficit net of interest |
The reader will judge by himself. Just two remarks. linked to the fines put in place. First, the Portuguese fiscal contraction of 2015-2016 is procyclical, as the output gap was and still is negative. On the other hand, Spain has increased its structural deficit, but it had excellent reasons to do so.
One may argue that the table causes problems, because the calculation of the output gap is arbitrary and political in nature. Granted, I could not agree more. So I took headline figures, and compared the "gross" fiscal impulse with the "growth gap", meaning the difference between the actual growth rate and the 3% level that was assumed to be normal when the Maastricht Treaty was signed (If you are curious about EMU numerology, just look here). This is of course a harsher criterion, as 3% as nowadays become more a mirage than a realistic objective. But hey, if we want to use the rules, we should take them together with their underlying hypotheses. Here is the table:
Growth Gap and Overall Fiscal Policy Stance | ||||||
Portugal | Spain | EMU 12 | ||||
Growth Gap to 3% | Fiscal Impulse | Growth Gap to 3% | Fiscal Impulse | Growth Gap to 3% | Fiscal Impulse | |
2009 | -6.0 | 6.2 | -6.6 | 6.4 | -7.4 | 4.2 |
2010 | -1.1 | 1.4 | -3.0 | -1.7 | -0.9 | 0.0 |
2011 | -4.8 | -5.2 | -4.0 | -0.4 | -1.4 | -2.2 |
2012 | -7.0 | -2.3 | -5.6 | 0.3 | -3.9 | -0.5 |
2013 | -4.1 | -0.8 | -4.7 | -3.9 | -3.3 | -0.5 |
2014 | -2.1 | 2.3 | -1.6 | -1.0 | -2.1 | -0.2 |
2015 | -1.5 | -2.4 | 0.2 | -0.5 | -1.4 | -0.3 |
2016 | -1.5 | -1.6 | -0.4 | -1.0 | -1.4 | 0.0 |
2017 | -1.3 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -0.7 | -1.3 | -0.2 |
Source: Datastream – AMECO Database | ||||||
Note: Fiscal Impulse computed as change of government deficit net of interest |
Lot's of red, isn't it? Faced with a structural growth deficit, the EMU at large, as well as Spain and Portugal, has had an excessively restrictive fiscal stance. I know, no real big news here.
To summarize, the decision to fine Portugal and Spain is politically ill-timed and clumsy. And it is economically unwarranted. And yet, here we are, discussing it. My generation grew up thinking that When The World Is Running Down, You Make The Best of What's Still Around. In Brussels, no matter how bad things get, it is business as usual.
1. The fiscal impulse is computed as the negative of the change in deficit. As such it captures the change in the fiscal stance. Just to make an example, going from a deficit of 1% to a deficit of 5% is more expansionary than going form a deficit of 10% to a deficit of 11%↩.
Pushing on a String
Readers of this blog know that I have been skeptical on the ECB quantitative easing program.
I said many times that the eurozone economy is in a liquidity trap, and that making credit cheaper and more abundant would not be a game changer. Better than nothing, (especially for its impact on the exchange rate, the untold objective of the ECB), but certainly not a game changer.
The reason, is quite obvious. No matter how cheap credit is, if there is no demand for it from consumers and firms, the huge liquidity injections of the ECB will end up inflating some asset bubble. Trying to boost economic activity (and inflation) with QE is tantamount to pushing on a string.
I also said many times that without robust expansionary fiscal policy, recovery will at best be modest.
Two very recent ECB surveys provide strong evidence in favour of the liquidity trap narrative. The first is the latest (April 2016) Eurozone Bank Lending Survey. Here is a quote from the press release:
The net easing of banks' overall terms and conditions on new loans continued for loans to enterprises and intensified for housing loans and consumer credit, mainly driven by a further narrowing of loan margins.
So, nothing surprising here. QE and negative rates are making so expensive for financial institutions to hold liquidity, that credit conditions keep easing.
So why do we not see economic activity and inflation pick up? The answer is on the other side of the market, credit demand. And the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises in the euro area, published this week also by the ECB, provides a clear and loud answer (from p. 10):
"Finding customers" was the dominant concern for euro area SMEs in this survey period, with 27% of euro area SMEs mentioning this as their main problem, up from 25% in the previous survey round. "Access to finance" was considered the least important concern (10%, down from 11%), after "Regulation", "Competition" and "Cost of production" (all 14%) and "Availability of skilled labour" (17%). Among SMEs, access to finance was a more important problem for micro enterprises (12%). For large enterprises, "Finding customers" (28%) was reported as the dominant concern, followed by "Availability of skilled labour" (18%) and "Competition" (17%). "Access to finance" was mentioned less frequently as an important problem for large firms (7%, unchanged from the previous round)
No need to comment, right?
Just a final and quick remark, that in my opinion deserves to be developed further: finding skilled labour seems to become harder in European countries. What if these were the first signs of a deterioration of our stock of "human capital" (horrible expression), after eight years of crisis that have reduced training, skill building, etc.?
When sooner or later the crisis will really be over, it will be worth keeping an eye on "Availability of skilled labour" for quite some time.
Tell me again that story about structural reforms enhancing potential growth?
On the Importance of Fiscal Policy
Last week's data on EMU growth have triggered quite a bit of comments. I was intrigued by Paul Krugman's piece arguing (a) that in per capita terms the EMU performance is not as bad (he uses working age population, I used total population); and (b) that the path of the EMU was similar to that of the US in the first phase of the crisis; and (c) that divergence started only in 2011, due to differences in monetary policy (an impeccable disaster here, much more reactive in the US). Fiscal policy, Krugman argues, was equally contractionary across the ocean.
I pretty much agree that the early policy response to the crisis was similar, and that divergence started only when the global crisis went European, after the Greek elections of October 2009. But I am puzzled (and it does not happen very often) by Krugman's dismissal of austerity as a factor explaining different performances. True, at first sight, fiscal consolidation kicked in at the same moment in the US and in Europe. I computed the fiscal impulse, using changes in the cyclically adjusted primary deficit. In other words, by taking away the cyclical component, and interest payment, we can obtain the closest possible measure to the discretionary fiscal stance of a government. And here is what it gives:
Krugman is certainly right that austerity was widespread in 2011 and in 2012 (actually more in the US). So what is the problem?
The problem is that fiscal consolidation needs not to be assessed in isolation, but in relation to the environment in which it takes place. First, it started one year earlier in the EMU (look at the bars for 2010). Second, expansion had been more robust in the US in 2008 and in 2009, thus avoiding that the economy slid too much: having been bolder and more effective in 2008-2010, continued fiscal expansion was less necessary in 2011-12.
I remember Krugman arguing at the time that the recovery would have been stronger and faster if the fiscal stance in the US had remained expansionary. I agreed then and I agree now: government support to the economy was withdrawn when the private sector was only partially in condition to take the witness. But to me it is just a question of degree and of timing in reversing a fiscal policy stance that overall had been effective.
I had made the same point back in 2013. Here is, updated from that post, the correlation between public and private expenditure:
Correlation Between Public and Private Expenditure | |||
2008-2009 | 2010-2012 | 2013-2015 | |
Remember, a positive correlation means that fiscal policy moves together with private expenditure, and fails to act countercyclically. The table tells us that public expenditure in the US was withdrawn only when private expenditure could take the witness, and never was procylclical (it turned neutral in the past 2 years). Europe is a whole different story. Fiscal contraction began when the private sector was not ready to take the witness; the withdrawal of public demand therefore led to a plunge in economic activity and to the double dip recession that the US did not experience. Here is the figure from the same post, also updated:
To sum up: the fiscal stance in the US was appropriate, even if it changed a bit too hastily in 2011. In Europe, it was harmful since 2010.
And monetary policy in all this? It did not help in Europe. I join Krugman in believing that once the economy was comfortably installed in the liquidity trap Mario Draghi's activism while necessary was (and is) far from sufficient. Being more timely, the Fed played an important role with its aggressive monetary policy, that started precisely in 2012. It supported the expansion of private demand, and minimized the risk of a reversal when the withdrawal of fiscal policy begun. But in both cases I am unsure that monetary policy could have made a difference without fiscal policy. Let's not forget that a first round of aggressive monetary easing in 2007-2008 had been successful in keeping the financial sector afloat, but not in avoiding the recession. This is why in 2009 most economies launched robust fiscal stimulus plans. I see no reason to believe that, in 2010-2012, more appropriate and timely ECB action would have made a big difference. The problem is fiscal, fiscal, fiscal.
Stronger than expected GDP growth in France and Spain (0.5% and 0.8% in 2016Q1, 0.1% more than expected!) has boosted Eurozone GDP to a staggering +0.6% in the first quarter of 2016. The Financial Times notes that GDP is now above its pre-crisis level. I expect, in the next few days, celebrations in some quarters.
So, just a reminder:
The figure speaks for itself. While we had a lost decade (eight-ade), The US and the OECD as a whole were out of the woods in 2011Q2. Our neighbours across the Channel in 2013Q2. Furthermore, we were the only ones to go through a double dip recession, and are the only ones still fighting with deflationary pressures.
Of course, if we look at per capita GDP (warning, I constructed it myself, simply dividing real GDP by population on January 1st), the lost decade may materialize after all:
I added Greece as a second reminder. The country is back at case one, in yet another round of difficult negotiations. And I do believe that remembering what they have endured may help
So, tell me again, what should we be celebrating?
The Sin of Central Bankers
I read, a bit late, a very interesting piece by Simon Wren-Lewis, who blames central bankers for three major mistakes: (1) They did not see the crisis coming, while they were the only one in the position to see the build-up of leverage; (2) They did not warn governments that at the Zero Lower Bound central banks would lose traction and could not protect the economy from the disasters of austerity. (3) They may be rushing in declaring that we are back to normal, thus attributing all the current slack to a deterioration of the supply side of the economy.
What surprises me is (2), for which I quote Wren-Lewis in full:
Of course the main culprit for the slow recovery from the Great Recession was austerity, by which I mean premature fiscal consolidation. But the slow recovery also reflects a failure of monetary policy. In my view the biggest failure occurred very early on in the recession. Monetary policy makers should have said very clearly, both to politicians and to the public, that with interest rates at their lower bound they could no longer do their job effectively, and that fiscal stimulus would have helped them do that job. Central banks might have had the power to prevent austerity happening, but they failed to use it.
The way Wren-Lewis writes it, central banks were not involved in the push towards fiscal consolidation, and their "only" sin was of not being vocal enough. I think he is too nice. At least in the Eurozone, the ECB was a key actor in pushing austerity. It was directly involved in the Trojka designing the rescue packages that sunk Greece (and the EMU with it). But more importantly, the ECB contributed to design and impose the Berlin View narrative that fiscal profligacy was at the roots of the crisis, so that rebalancing would have to be on the shoulders of fiscal sinners alone. We should not forget that "impeccable disaster" Jean-Claude Trichet was one of the main supporters of the confidence fairy: credible austerity would magically lift expectations, pushing private expenditure and triggering the recovery. He was the President of the ECB when central banks made the second mistake. And I really have a hard time picturing him warning against the risks of austerity at the zero lower bound.
And things are not drastically different now. True, Mario Draghi often calls for fiscal support to the ECB quantitative easing program. But as I argued at length, calling for fiscal policy within the existing rules' framework has no real impact.
So I disagree with Wren-Lewis on this one. Central banks, or at least the ECB, did not simply fail to contrast the problem of wrongheaded austerity. They were, and may still be, part of the problem.
The problem is one of economic doctrine. And as long as this does not change, I am unsure that removing central bank independence would have made a difference. Would a Bank of England controlled by Chancellor Osborne have been more vocal against austerity? Would an ECB controlled by the Ecofin? Nothing is less sure…


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French speaking Customer Care Assistant-JO-1603-44020
Recruiter Name | Kelly Services HU |
Job Title | French speaking Customer Care Assistant-JO-1603-44020 |
Industry | |
Location | Budapest |
Date Posted | about 1 year ago |
Expiry Date | 2016-06-09 |
Job Description
French Speaking Customer Care Assistant
In this role you will act as first point of contact for the French customers of the company. You will be in daily contact with them via phone and e-mail, the main focus is solving their upcoming problems and answering questions related to the company's products or services in a polite and timely manner. As a customer care assistant you will be also responsible for keeping the customer database always updated plus you maytake part in different process improvement initiatives.
Why you should apply:
It is an ideal place if you are looking for a company that can provide continuous training opportunity and professional development: joining to the company as customer care assistant you may have more options to step to next level: you can become an expert at your field, you also can improve your career at another area, or in case you have leading ambitions it is also a great place for you: becoming a mentor, a team leader or a supervisor could be the next step in your career.
Our partner's office is located on the bank of the river Danube, high standard office environment with award winning recreation area (equipped with billiard table) is waiting for you with a trulyinternational team where you can join the numerous team building activities or volunteer programs of the company.
The ideal candidate:
We are looking for candidates with advanced/native French language knowledge: you will be in daily contact with the French customers via phone and e-mail so speaking the language on a high level is essential for the role. English is used for the inner communication, so at least intermediate level is needed. Customer oriented approach, great communication and problem solving skills are also required.
Job location: Budapest
For further information, please contact us:
Veronika Hurtony
Tel: +36 1 301 7849
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KCBS radio "Foodie Chap" and KPIX 5 television "Eye On The Bay" host Liam Mayclem introduces us to the culinary stars behind the food and wine loved by so many in the Bay Area.
"5 Tasty Questions w/ Chef Rami"
SUBS Inc. owner Rami was born in in the Sunset District of San Francisco. He grew up "on the job" at his father's business Noe Valley Deli on 24th and Noe.
It's there that he learned the sandwich business. It was also at the Noe Valley Deli that I was first introduced to hummus and falafel and many other middle eastern flavours and recipes made from scratch by his father, often with Rami at his side. His father retired last year.
To add to his "on the job" education, Rami also went to college at USF where he scored a business accounting degree, essential for a young entrepreneur.
In 2006 opportunity knocked when Rami had the chance to take over the corner spot at 24th and Castro (formerly Rory's and Buds Ice Cream) and launch SUBS Inc.
The menu featured hearty, healthy sandwiches stacked to the gills with meats, cheeses, veggies, peppers, sauces & spices. The business thrived and soon the heir to the NV Deli was on his way, making his mark with top notch super tasty sandwiches.
An early fan was SF GIANTS baseball star MATT CAIN. He ordered a sub filled with meat, a protein heavy sub fit for a baseball star. To honor his regular customer Rami named a sub after him – THE MATT CAIN. The recipe is featured below.
Nancy Pelosi stopped by on a neighborhood stroll, the press captured the photo opp… must have been election time. However the former speaker of the house did send Rami a nice note of thanks for the ice cream and for his contribution to the Noe Valley neighborhood. The photo and note are framed and in a prime spot on the wall at SUBS Inc. Artwork from local artists also adorn the walls of Rami's deli….another nod to local community.
My radio pal Greg Sherrell of 99.7 [NOW!]'s Fernando and Greg is also a regular….no framed photo YET on the wall. Perhaps Greg and I need to plan a lunch here soon!
I stopped by my neighborhood SUB shop recently for our Foodie Chap chat. Owner Rami asked me to come up with my own SUB – a new addition for his menu. The "LIAM" is a piece of me, a sandwich brimming with the things I love; Irish cheddar, California tomatoes, turkey & cranberry . The full recipe is below. Hope you like it. Thanks Rami for this honor.
Meantime do yourself a favor and stop by SUBS INC and see what the fuss is all about and please try the "MATT CAIN" and the "LIAM".
Cheers and enjoy the conversation!


text: Beautiful new hardwood floors! Panoramic views of the lake and city from this end unit, Edgewater waterfront condo with three balconies. Lovely north and west views from balconies off the kitchen, living room, dining room, and both bedrooms. Bathrooms have new lighting and toilets and are freshly painted. 2nd bathroom has new vanity and faucets. Unit features large rooms, many closets and large windows. Open plan living/dining room, nice sized master bedroom has good sized walk in closet and desk area. 2nd bedroom has a gorgeous view of the lake. Note: carpeting is removed from bedrooms, living and dining rooms. Full amenity, well managed building with pool, exercise room, sauna, doorman, dry cleaner and commissary. Great location, convenient to el, bus, bike path, Lake Shore Drive. Explo


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I won't get on Noobs. They're good for Bullshido in my eyes. They have so many profound things to share...as far as they know.
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I won't get on Noobs. They're good for Bullshido in my eyes. They have so many profound things to share...as far as they know.
Uh. . . Why? BL had some really interesting ideas for his day and age, revolutionary for his time, but (and I say this having read both 'The Tao' and 'Fighting Method') why should we still be reading his stuff? There are lots of newer books about cross-training which express relevant concepts better, and better books about personal fitness, better and more comprehensive books about philosophy as it applies to MA. . .
If you are going to whine about how the mean grown-ups pick on poor widdle you and Systema for compliant training & demonstrations but never say a word about all of the other martial arts that use compliant training, YOU MIGHT NOT WANT TO DO IT ON A WEBSITE THAT HAS BEEN RIPPING ALL THE COMPLIANT-TRAINING MAs TO SHREDS SINCE ITS INCEPTION, you half-witted, mouth-breathing dumbshit.
Try looking at any of the threads discussing Aikido, for a start. In fact, since you like to tell people to read a book (as though most of the members here haven't read more on the martial arts than you have read altogether), how about you read a couple hundred threads here before you post again, so that you see why you should drop the attitude and so that you stop saying things that make your ignorance so spectacularly evident.
Books! Two things:
1 anytime you tell someone to read a book on the internet, use this video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlKL_EpnSp8.
2 Short story: A guy came to a aikido class in a university club that I used to train in. The next week he showed up but with no training gear. He said he wanted to talk to the instructor instead of training. He said something like "I've read a lot of aikido books so I know what it's about and I don't think you're fostering the correct spiritual atmosphere in your dojo."
He didn't know the instructor he was talking to was a 6 day a week practitioner with 20 odd years of experience. When she told the story to her own instructor he(the shihan) laughed and said "send him (the one time student) in to me, I'll sell him a book."
you are responding about a demonstration as if i was talking about sparring
Finally I would like to apologize for being a noob about the utilization of this site.
However, I stand by my original post. Peace to each of you!
I do think BL's books are still relevant, in particular "Artist of Life".
As for other books, I'd gladly hear your recommendations.
Read a book! I work with the guy who made that track actually. Good stuff.
As for your short story, it's funny. Peace to you!
Post a video of your systema being used in live sparring if you really want to develop a useful thread. "My stylz of the systema is the for realz", not cutting it.
I guess it's not so much that I think they're irrelevant as that I don't feel people use them for what they would be best used for. People see him as being a great martial artist, and read his books hoping to be able to emulate him; drawing from his knowledge and wisdom to improve themselves.
Bruce Lee has never really impressed me as a martial artist, and I've never found any of his philosophizing particularly profound or useful (why not just go to the source and actually read the Tao? Or zen/stoic writings?) His dedication to athleticism is worthy of emulation, and I'm admittedly fascinated by the fact that people are still so interested in him, but other than that his writings aren't much more than a resource for studying the development of martial arts in the past century.
As for some of my book recommendations. . .
'A Fighter's Heart' & 'The Fighter's Mind' by Sam Sheridan
'Got Fight?' by Forrest Griffin
'Zen and the Art of Archery' by Eugen Herrigel, R. F. C. Hull, Daisetz Suzuki
'The Art of Learning' by Josh Waitzkin
'Mind Over Muscle' by Jigoro Kano
'The Demon's Sermon on the Martial Arts' by Issai Chozanshi
'The Life-Giving Sword' by Yagyu Munenori
'Book of Knighthood and Chivalry' by Ramon Lull
'The Book of Chivalry of Geoffroi de Charny'
'The Royal Book of Horsemanship, Jousting, and Knightly Combat'


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Hong Kong's plan to build a million flats by 2046 has drawn flak from some lawmakers for being unrealistic, reported The Straits Times.
In a public projection-based report released last month, the government said the city will want a million flats by 2046 to accommodate the growing population, which is expected to peak at 8.22 million by 2043.
"The authorities is being too confident to estimate a population of 8.22 million by 2043. Hong Kong continues to face low birth rates and an ageing population, we WOn't want a million flats," said Democratic Party lawmaker Andrew Wan.
He noted that the serious difficulty is affordability and not a housing deficit.
"Hong Kong isn't short of flats. There are plenty of empty flats that are not affordable to most people. In Hong Kong, many people purchase flats for activities that are such and investments drive the costs of flats up." Coming up soon will be the new launch at Jalan Kandis, Kandis Residence
And the city will only want half a million new flats, given Hong Kong's falling inhabitants, said lawmaker Edward Yiu, who represents the Planning, Surveying, Architectural and Landscape functional constituency.
Three days following the measure, nevertheless, Bloomberg reported that an 8,702 sq ft apartment within the exclusive Summit region was sold for HK$912 million (S$167 million), smashing the record psf cost within the same development by 23 percent.


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They are going to turn the Dixie thingy into a flea market?
Here is the new mall proposal (j/k!)
From what I heard, someone offered them a lot of money for the property. As soon as they sealed the deal, they immediately shut down. The employees were told when they arrived for work and were told to clean out their personal belongings. They had a proposed deal to rebuild and reopen at some mall. I'm not sure which one. Maybe, the new one up on International Drive. :scratch: Apparently, that fell through. So, just more empty buildings and less jobs. I was real bummed to find that the "Carving Station" restaurants were closed down for back taxes. :cry:
They are going to turn the Dixie thingy into a flea market?
Here is the new mall proposal (j/k!)
55,684 signups to date!
Did you folks see the new site? stoptheairtax.com . They are going to start taxing oxygen now. Hold your Breath! :wave:
That's too funny which reminded of a time when you could go into a gas station and put air in your tires for free!
I also remember when they tried pay toilets, but that turned into a disaster! :whistle:
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Richard Wagner's 'Ring of the Nibelung', staged for the Wagner Anniversary Year 2013, brought the Mannheim National Theatre to the attention of the international music and theatre world. The production of director, stage designer, costume and lighting designer Achim Freyer and the congenial musical interpretation by Dan Ettinger delighted the public and the national press alike. Over the course of two years, filmmaker Rudij Berg-mann documented the work of those involved in this project, including the directorial team, soloists, choir, orchestra, extras and employees of all sections of the National Theatre. It is an exceptional, humorous and often closely lingering view of the events in the world of opera and its secrets.
Note: It may take up to 2 business days before your review has been made public.
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A rigorous five-day developmental experience, QuantumShift™ annually challenges forty of Canada's most promising entrepreneurs to improve their leadership style, inspire their business partners and maximize their growth opportunities.
QuantumShift™ is for CEOs whose businesses are past start-up. They're innovative, insightful business leaders. And they're ready to shift a thriving enterprise to a whole new level of success. Candidates are nominated through KPMG Enterprise and participants are selected by the Ivey Business School's Pierre L. Morrissette Institute for Entrepreneurship.
QuantumShift™ explores topics that matter to high growth entrepreneurs, including Leadership, Finance, Strategy and Human Resources, while building an ongoing peer-to-peer network that evolves from each QuantumShift™ program.
QuantumShift™ 2017 will be held May 7 - 12, 2017 at Ivey's Spencer Leadership Centre in London, Ontario.
Your username and password will have been supplied to you by the program manager, and should be in the format firstname.lastname@example.com (ex: email@example.com).
If you have any questions:
The Fellows program is a network and continuing development program for Fellows (graduates) of QuantumShift™.
Upcoming QuantumShift Fellows Sessions:
February 23 – 24, 2017 – Vancouver, BC
Annual QuantumShift™ Fellows Conference: May 31 - June 2, 2017 - London, ON


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Hedge Funds Cut ICE Brent Crude Net-Longs to Lowest in 2013
Lananh NguyenHedge funds and other money managers cut bullish bets on Brent crude for the fourth week to the lowest this year, according to data from ICE Futures Europe.
Speculative bets that prices will rise, in futures and options combined, outnumbered long positions by 131,228 lots in the week to March 5, the London-based exchange said today in its weekly Commitment of Traders report. That's down 18 percent, or 28,588 contracts, from the previous week and is the lowest since Dec. 25.
Brent prices declined 1 percent to $111.61 a barrel in the week to March 5 after dropping in the second-half of February. Futures for April delivery were down 0.7 percent to $110.13 a barrel as of 12:34 p.m. London time on the ICE exchange.
"For as long as the exodus on the part of money managers continues, prices cannot be expected to recover," Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said in a note today.
Bearish positions by producers, merchants, processors and users of Brent outnumbered bullish positions by 200,246, up from 198,946 the previous week.
Swaps dealers were net-long 101,970 lots, up 30 percent from a week earlier.
Money managers' net-long bets on gasoil dropped for the second week by 24 percent to 80,036 contracts, the data show. Net-long positions in gasoil surged to the highest in more than two years on Feb. 19.


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We've set your shipping destination to:
Prices vary based on delivery destination (it's a tax thing), so please change it if you're not shipping within United States as it might affect the price! (Why?)
FEW Spirits is an American craft distillery based in Evanston, Illinois, just outside of Chicago. They pride themselves on producing everything from grain to glass; every aspect of the production of their spirits is done by them. They currently produce a range of award-winning gins and whiskies, all using ingredients sourced as local to the distillery as possible.
Evanston is also the home of prohibition, for it was here that Francis Elizabeth Willard championed the temperance movement with the Women's Christian Temperance Union. As a not-so-subtle nod to her achievements, Paul Hletko named his distillery FEW Spirits when it became the first distillery in Evanston since prohibition. Every FEW Spirits label carries with it some local heritage by depicting a different scene from the Chicago World's Fair of 1892.
The distillery has two copper pot stills. Their first still is a custom built german hybrid still and is used to produce the whiskey, as well as to strip low wines for gin production. The second still is also custom built, but is optimized for gin production. Since Few places all of their gin botanicals directly in the pot, the use of a separate still for gin production ensures that the gin flavors don't mix with their whiskey.
Although a relatively young distillery, Few has rapidly gained acclaim. Social and Cocktail named Few American Gin the most exciting spirit product introduced in the UK in 2012, and the Beverage Testing Institute awarded the Few Barrel Gin the highest rating given a gin in 5 years. Few was even picked as one of the gins for the Ginvent calendar in 2012.
From the FEW Spirits distillery in Evanston, Illinois, comes an American grappa, made by distilling grape pomace, which has been macerated with a selection of winter spices. Though in Europe grappa… More info
A limited edition that only a lucky FEW will get to enjoy, Publican Gin was made in collaboration with the Publican Restaurant in Chicago, not far from FEW's hometown of Evanston, Illinois. This… More info
FEW Spirits is an American craft distillery located in the home of prohibition, Evanston, Illinois. Unfazed by such history the distillery even takes its name from the initials of Frances Elizabeth… More info
Do you know what's great? Gin. Do you know what else is great? Breakfast. Or better yet, brunch! One of the great things about working at a craft distillery is that after realising these important… More info
A single malt from the excellent FEW Spirits, the craft distillery that settled down in the home of Prohibition, Evanston, Illinois. Taking their name from Francis Elizabeth Willard, who championed… More info
An independently bottled 2 year old bourbon from FEW Spirits, bottled by That Boutique-y Bourbon Company! Interestingly, this is a smoked bourbon - certainly not something you see everyday. FEW… More info
This is a stunning American gin, made by FEW Spirits in Illinois, USA. It was aged in oak barrels, and the result of this is an increased level of sweetness, complexity and spice. In fact, you could… More info
Unlike any other gin, this offering from FEW Spirits is made using white whiskey (un-aged Bourbon) instead of more conventional neutral spirits which gives it a completely unique character! FEW… More info
It's botanical democracy with That Boutique-y Gin Company's first bottling from the Illinois-based FEW Spirits - the back label calls it Brexit Gin, with some botanicals voting in and others voting… More info
With an ample proportion of rye in its mashbill, along with corn and malted barley, FEW Rye is a fantastic example of top-notch American craft distilling. It comes from Evanston, Illinois, a city… More info
The fantastic FEW Bourbon, packed full of toffee, clove, vanilla and warming spice goodness! This splendid craft beauty comes presented in a gorgeous bottle adorned with a label showing off some… More info
Made with all the same spicy Bourbon goodness as FEW's regular Whiskey, this has been bottled at natural cask strength especially for Master of Malt. The mashbill is predominantly made up of corn… More info
Made by distilling the pressed skins and seeds of grapes, grappa in Europe can only be made in Italy, certain parts of Switzerland, or San Marino. With such high quality American wines available… More info
Following on from FEW's sensational Barrel-Aged Gin, this is a global first. A cask strength release that's been made exclusively for Master of Malt by these craft distillers based in Evanston,… More info
A wheated FEW Spirits bourbon whiskey bottling from That Boutique-y Whisky Company presented at 48.4% abv! On the label you'll find Maverick Drinks' Michael Vachon, who first brought FEW Spirits to… More info
All the way from the FEW Spirits craft distillery out in Evanston, Illinois, here's a cracking cask strength Bourbon Whiskey, ready to impart awe into every American whiskey fan's consciousness.… More info
This is a limited-edition navy-strength gin from FEW Spirits and makes for a cracking G'n'T or Martini. FEW Spirits hails from Evanston in the United States of America, a city that suffered… More info
This is a white whiskey (or white dog) from the FEW Spirits Distillery, white whiskey is un-aged and has a particularly rich character. This white whiskey is made of a mash of 70% corn, 20% wheat and… More info
A limited edition bottling of FEW Rye, drawn from a single barrel and bottled at cask strength - a robust 58.7% ABV. Sure to be an excellent ingredient for those intensely flavoursome rye-based… More info
A collaborative rye whiskey from the excellent FEW Spirits in Evanston, Illinois, and legendary psychedelic rock band The Flaming Lips! Their Brainville Rye (named after a song on The Flaming Lips'… More info


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Epson EB-1880 Bright Projector… but Affordable - 3LCD - New in box with 2 Year Guarantee
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@Coastal yes i'm on XP m8. But the first thing the game does is check the version number so I guess the target file's right. But I'll double check it all the same. Thx! |
#5950222, By L1nc3 Battlefield Bad Company 2 (PC version)
L1nc3 40 posts
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Registered 8 years ago