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Artist: ROCCHETTI, CLAUDIO
Title: Pointless Vanishing Point
Format: 12"
Label: Holidays
Country: Italy
Price: $27.00
|"Back on wax after a four-year hiatus, Claudio Rocchetti gives us a one-sider vinyl assembled at home, in Auerstr. 7, Berlin. Inspired by the work of Robert Smithson. Including a sample from Trilogie de la Mort by Eliane Radigue and some sounds provided on purpose by Al Doum, Von Tesla, and Stefano Pilia, Pointless Vanishing Point is a three-parted journey into the recurring environment of awkward sounds and slow frequencies interrupted by a distant sounding psychedelic interlude. Edition of 200 copies." -Holidays.

subset: commoncrawl


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Two lonely souls find each other in a British sea side town and may have just found the redemption they were searching for.
Glum gangster and German drop-out form a pensive bond in this deadpan indie. Director duo Jones echo Hal Hartley's mannered weirdness and the leads are terrific, but the kooky touches (olleh, backwards-talking girl) aggravate.
Deadpan Indie with terrific lead performances.


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About the Book
What is the relationship between mathematics and art? Fractal art is possibly the best purest example of mathematics in art. Forms: 001 is a collection of selected images generated out of hundreds; that were rendered over the last year and a half, some images took up to thirty six hours alone.
Features & Details
- Category Arts & Photography
Standard Portrait, 8×10 in, 20×25 cm
40 Pages
- Publish Date Jan 06, 2014
- Language English
- Tags computer generated, stephen blundell, dj dyme, fractal, fractals, art, patterns, djdyme, digital, stunning, beautiful
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Learn more about S.G. JACKSON INVESTMENTS LIMITED. Check the company's details for free and view the Companies House information, company documents and list of directors.
Know about every new company document that is added!
Take advantage of our watch this company feature free of charge and have notifications sent directly to your inbox. Whenever a new document appears on this website, or if their particulars change, you will be immediately informed about such changes. To monitor these changes, all you need to do is click on watch this company.
|Tangible Fixed Assets
|£ 220,000
|Current Assets
|£ 38,685
|£ 190
|Shareholder Funds
|£ 251,766
|Profit Loss Account Reserve
|£ 23,166
|Revaluation Reserve
|£ 218,500
|Called Up Share Capital
|£ 10,100
|Net Assets Liabilities Including Pension Asset Liability
|£ 251,766
|Total Assets Less Current Liabilities
|£ 251,766
|Net Current Assets Liabilities
|£ 31,766
|Creditors Due Within One Year
|£ 6,919
|Cash Bank In Hand
|£ 38,495
|Share Capital Allotted Called Up Paid
|£ 10,000
|Number Shares Allotted
|£ 10,000
|Tangible Fixed Assets Disposals
|£ 110,000
|Tangible Fixed Assets Additions
|£ 395,972
|Tangible Fixed Assets Cost Or Valuation
|£ 505,972
|Creditors Due After One Year
|£ 218,421
Information about the Private Limited Company S.G. JACKSON INVESTMENTS LIMITED has been prepared for information purposes only. It is not intended to be nor does it constitute legal advice. This is public information provided by the official company register.


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Sponsored by Carolina Mountain Land Conservancy
Every year around this time, anticipation of spring begins with the laying out of garden beds, checking the planting calendar, eyeing the Farmer's Almanac… and the appearance of seed catalogs to browse and daydream of warmer times.
With all this excitement, Carolina Mountain Land Conservancy (CMLC) introduces our 2017 Seed Swap—a free sharing of seeds our staff, members, and volunteers have collected over the season. Yup, free! There's no cost to you, no dollars, and no cents. We've set up a sharing station in the reception area of our office at 847 Case Street Hendersonville, NC 28792. There's a bowl with seed packets you are welcome to give or to take, it's that easy.
Take some seeds, grow the plants, make notes on their performance if you like, collect the seeds from the new plants, bring them back to our sharing station, get more seeds, and repeat! We have a few "make your own" seed packets, too.
For more information about CMLC's 2017 Seed Swap, please contact Torry, Conservation Easement Manager, at email@example.com or (828) 697-5777.


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There's been a wealth of young musical talent coming out of Perth these last few years -psychedelic rock heads Tame Impala and electro pop-rock duo Canyons are prime examples. Now, via Future Classic, comes the enchanting sounds of progressive electro four-piece Scenic.
Scenic were picked up about 12 months ago by French producer Joakim who went on to release their first single 'This Can't Be' on his Tigersushi label:
Mobile users, click here to listen.
Soon after, Future Classic hooked their claws into the group and are now giving us their first EP, Another Sky. It features two fresh, invigorating tracks as well as a very special title-track remix by The Magician:
Mobile users, click here to listen.
Grab a copy of the EP now over at the Future Classic webstore.


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Genome-level analyses of
Prokaryote microbial genomics
Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a disease with major implications for animal welfare and productivity, as well as having the potential for zoonotic transmission. In Great Britain (GB) alone, controlling bTB costs in the region of £100 million annually, with the current control scheme seemingly unable to stop the inexorable spread of infection. One aspect that may be driving the epidemic is evolution of the causative pathogen,
We have used a combination of genome sequencing, transcriptome analyses, and recombinant DNA technology to define genetic differences across the major
We show that while these strains show extensive similarities in their genetic make-up and gene expression profiles, they exhibit distinct expression of a subset of genes. We provide genomic, transcriptomic and functional data to show that synonymous point mutations (sSNPs) on the coding strand can lead to the expression of antisense transcripts on the opposing strand, a finding with implications for how we define a 'silent' nucleotide change. Furthermore, we show that transcriptomic data based solely on amplicon arrays can generate spurious results in terms of gene expression profiles due to hybridisation of antisense transcripts. Overall our data suggest that subtle genetic differences, such as sSNPS, may have important consequences for gene expression and subsequent phenotype.
An analysis of molecular typing data from ~11,500
In an attempt to better define genetic differences across the major
Comparative genomics of M. bovis field isolates using whole genome sequencing and microarrays
The strains for this study were chosen to reflect the genomic diversity of the
The genomes of the three
Additional file 1
SNPs identified across sequenced strains.
Click here for file
Figure 1
Whole genome SNP-based evolutionary analysis of
Whole genome SNP-based evolutionary analysis of
In addition to SNPs, both large and small INDELs can be inferred from NGS data, although there are several challenges involved
Additional file 2
Large deletions identified by NGS in sequenced strains.
Click here for file
Linking SNPs to genes that show differential expression amongst M bovis strains grown under vitro conditions and in ex vivo macrophages
The four
The RNAs extracted from each of the growth conditions were converted to cyanine labelled cDNA using reverse transcriptase and hybridised to whole genome amplicon microarrays. Using only those genes that are common to all four strains, we found a total set of 70 genes that showed a 2.5-fold or more difference in expression in one or more strains when pairwise comparisons were made between the transcriptomes of 2122/97 and 1121/01, 2451/01 or 1307/01 (Additional file
Additional file 3
Fold change differences in gene expression in
Click here for file
Using the genome sequencing information determined for each of the four strains, we attempted to correlate the observed strain-specific differences in gene expression with the presence or absence of mutations within the coding regions or promoters of those genes that show differential gene expression, or in genes that are known to regulate the activity of those genes. Mb1749c and Mb1750c are two genes that are specifically upregulated in 1307/01 and encode a toxin and antitoxin (TA) pair, respectively, belonging to type II TA systems of the VapBC family
Mb2007c, which shows a 4-fold higher expression in 1307/01 only, encodes a transcriptional regulator of the LysR class. There are two SNPs present in the coding sequence of Mb2007c in 1307/01 which are absent in the homologues of the other three strains: the first is a nSNP which results in the conservative substitution of Arg137 to Gln, while the second is a more debilitating nonsense SNP, which ultimately leads to a protein whose length is only 60% that of the wild-type. Many regulators belonging to the LysR family regulate their own expression through a negative autoregulatory mechanism similar to that described above for VapBC TA systems
Nitrite reductase catalyses the reduction of nitrite to ammonia and is strongly expressed during growth in the presence of nitrate or nitrite, but repressed in the presence of ammonia
Mb3477c encodes an ATP binding membrane protein, part of the Esx4 secretion system
Of the 19 genes that show specific differential expression in the Mϕ, the most notable are Mb1914c and
Real time RT-PCR was used to verify a selection of genes that showed differential gene expression as predicted by the microarray analysis. Figure
Figure 2
Confirmation of amplicon microarray results with real time RT-PCR
Confirmation of amplicon microarray results with real time RT-PCR. The fold changes in gene expression for (a) Mb1750c, (b)
Functional analysis of SNP role in differential gene expression
The above data showed that many of the strain specific differences in gene expression were linked to the presence of synonymous or non-synonymous SNPs located within the coding regions of the genes that show variable expression. Non-synonymous SNPs lead to changes in amino acid sequence which can lead to changes in protein function. The C to T transition at position 1932704 (wrt 2122/97) in the coding sequence of the 1307/01 Mb1749c homologue leads to the non-conservative substitution of Gly19 to Asp, and this nSNP appears to be linked to the upregulation of both Mb1749c and Mb1750c in that strain. In order to confirm this, a 0.9 kb DNA fragment containing the
Synonymous substitutions do not lead to changes in protein sequence and have generally been considered to be 'silent' or benign. Recent studies, however, have suggested that sSNPs can have functional effects, such as decreased mRNA stability and translation
Use of a high density tiled oligonucleotide microarray to detect differentially expressed small RNA transcripts in M. bovis isolates
Additional file 4
Differential expression of RNA transcripts as detected by a tiled oligonucleotide microarray. Up and down arrows indicate fold up- and downregulation, respectively, and empty cells indicate no change in expression. *Strand, A indicates antisense, S, sense and I, intergenic.
Click here for file
Figure 3
Expressions and schematic representation of genomic locations of selected cis-encoded antisense sRNAs identified using a tiled oligonucleotide microarray
Expressions and schematic representation of genomic locations of selected cis-encoded antisense sRNAs identified using a tiled oligonucleotide microarray. Three asRNAs (open arrows) are (a) T6, (b) T14 and (c) T25. For each asRNA, a histogram plots the fold changes for each of the oligonucleotide probes that detected the asRNA, and for each probe the binding position relative to the 2122/97 genome is indicated. Closed and open arrows indicate lengths and direction of transcription of genes and asRNAs, respectively.
Some of the transcripts are
Characterisation of differentially expressed cis asRNA
The genomic co-ordinates of the oligonucleotide probes that detected the antisense species described above can only serve as approximate estimations as to their start and end points. Thus, we used 5′ RLM-RACE (RNA Ligase Mediated Rapid Amplification of cDNA Ends) in an attempt to accurately define the transcriptional start sites (TSS) for the short sense transcript T2, and the antisense transcripts T6, T11 and T25 described in the above section (see Methods). These transcripts were chosen as their expression levels are high and their transcript lengths were considered to be sufficiently long to enable the RLM-RACE methodology to work. Table
Figure 4
Promoters of anti sense RNAs
Promoters of anti sense RNAs. a. Promoters of the asRNAs as_mb1618c, as_1914c and as_echA21. -10 and -35 elements are indicated in bold and italics. Transcriptional start sites are indicated by large font G characters, while SNP residue that leads to the expression of the asRNA is indicated by a large font red T residue. The consensus sequence for group a mycobacterial promoters is indicated. Numerical subscripts indicate the percentage of the total number of promoters for which a transcriptional start site has been experimentally determined that show the indicated residue. b. Promoters of the differentially expressed asRNAs as_ino1 and as_narH in
In a parallel study, high density oligonucleotide microarrays were also used to interrogate the transcriptomes of
The aim of this work was to define possible phenotypic variation across
With the growth of technologies such as high density tiled oligonucleotide microarrays and next generation sequencing there has been a rapid increase in the number of reports describing the existence of non-coding RNAs (ncRNAs) in bacteria. Non-coding RNAs broadly consist of two types, cis- and trans-encoded RNA. Trans RNA includes intergenic encoded RNA, while cis-encoded RNA includes 5′ and 3′ untranslated regions of mRNA and antisense RNA. To study the expressions of both cis- and trans encoded ncRNA we used a high density oligonucleotide tiled microarray since our amplicon microarray was unable to detect intergenic transcripts or differentiate between sense and antisense transcripts. Previous studies using
In the work presented here strain 2451/01 expressed two asRNAs, as_Mb1914c and as_echA21, that are not expressed by any of the other 3 strains. They are encoded within the central part of the opposite genes and are therefore likely to modulate the stability of the transcripts. Mb1914c encodes a short chain dehydrogenase while
In many instances, upregulation of asRNA negatively correlates with the transcription of the antisense gene
Single nucleotide polymorphisms were found to be the most frequent form of genetic variation that exists between the isolates, with a total of 1013 SNPs detected across the three strains 1121/01, 2451/01 and 1307/01 compared to the reference strain
Genomic deletions have played an important role in the evolution of strains belonging to the mycobacterial complex
In conclusion we have performed a comprehensive analysis of 4
Bacterial strains, media and growth conditions
For the Mϕ infection experiments, bovine alveolar Mϕ were cultivated in tissue culture media R10, which consisted of RPMI (Invitrogen) media plus 2 mM glutamine, 10% calf fetal serum and 1% amphotericin. Where used, antibiotics gentamycin and ampicillin were added at concentrations of 50 and 100 μg / ml, respectively.
Isolation of bovine alveolar macrophages and infection with mycobacteria
The lungs of a 6–8 week old male Holstein-Friesian calf were removed and a whole lung lavage procedure was performed to washout the alveolar Mϕ. Briefly, 4–5 x 500 ml aliquots of Hanks' Balanced Sterile Salts solution (HBSS) were used to infuse the lungs via the trachea, and the washings were pooled in a sterile beaker. The Mϕ cells contained in the washes were pelleted by centrifugation at 500 x g for 10 mins at 4°C, washed and then resuspended in R10 growth media supplemented with antibiotics (R10+) to a concentration of 1–2 x 107 / ml. Approximately 0.5-1.5 x 109 Mϕ were isolated per calf lung.
Vented 225 cm2 tissue culture flasks containing R10+ media were seeded with 3–4 x 107 alveolar Mϕ and placed in a humidified 37°C incubator containing 5% CO2. Typically, 2–4 flasks were used per strain and time point. After 24 hrs, the growth media was decanted to remove non-adherent cells and then replaced with fresh R10+ media. After a further 24 hrs, the growth media was discarded and the Mϕ monolayer was washed with RPMI to remove traces of the antibiotic containing growth media. The monolayer was then covered with R10 media without antibiotics (R10-) and then infected with mid-logarithmic phase grown mycobacteria using an MOI of approximately 10:1 (bacilli: Mϕ). The AlvMϕ were incubated with mycobacteria for 4 hrs, after which the cell monolayers were washed with RPMI and then either processed for RNA extraction (4 hr time point) or incubated in fresh R10+ media for a further 20 hrs before being processed for RNA extraction (24 hr time point).
Extraction and amplification of mycobacterial RNA from infected macrophages
Mϕ cell monolayers were lysed using a guanidinium thiocyanate (GTC) containing solution. The lysed Mϕ's were vortexed and passed twice through a 21G blunt ended needle to sheer host genomic DNA and thereby reduce the viscosity of the solution. Mycobacterial cells were then pelleted by centrifugation at 4600 rpm for 20 mins at room temperature and washed with GTC solution to remove host genomic DNA. Cells were then resuspended in Trizol and RNA was extracted using the protocol outlined in Bacon et al.
Amplicon microarray analysis
For the in vitro growth experiments, three independent experiments (biological replicates) were carried out, and for each strain in each experiment two microarrays (technical replicates) were performed. Thus, for each strain 6 microarrays were performed. Three independent AlvMϕ infection experiments were carried out and for each experiment two microarrays were performed for each of the control RPMI samples, and the 4- and 24 hrs post-infection samples. Cy5 and Cy3 fluorescently-labelled probes were synthesised from RNA and genomic DNA, respectively, and hybridised to whole genome
Normalisation was performed by dividing the log ratio of the Cy5 to Cy3 signal for every spot by the median of the log ratios for all spots, except control spots. A median absolute (MAD) scale transformation was applied to the normalised data from the pas an additional normalisation step. For every microarray, duplicate spots were averaged, and then the average expression of every gene across all technical replicate microarrays was calculated. Averages of the three biological replicates were used to compare gene expression between strains. For each gene, a moderated t-test was applied and those genes with a P- value less than 0.05 were selected. From this gene list, those genes whose average expression differed by more than 2.5-fold between strains were selected. Fully annotated microarray data have been deposited in BμG@Sbase (accession number: E-BUGS-150;
Oligonucleotide microarray analysis
Experiments were performed in a similar way to that described for the in vitro amplicon array experiments, except that the RNA was purified using the mirVana miRNA Isolation kit (Ambion), which is designed to capture small (>20 nt) RNA species. RNA and genomic DNA were directly labelled with Cy5- and Cy3, respectively, using the ULS microRNA labelling kit (Kreatech), according to the manufacturer's instructions. Purified Cy5- and Cy3-labelled probes were co-purified and applied to an Agilent 40K custom made tiled (10 nt overlap) 60-mer oligonucleotide microarray designed to the genomic sequence of
Tiling array data was analysed using the Limma package of R/Bioconductor
Whole genome sequencing of M. bovis field isolates
Whole genome paired end (2 x 76bp) sequencing was performed using Illumina HiSeq machines at the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute (Hinxton, Cambridge). Raw sequence data was uploaded to the European Nucleotide Archive (ENA) and can be downloaded at
Real time RT-PCR
Quantitative real-time SYBR Green based PCR (qRT-PCR) experiments were performed using a RotorGene 3000 (Corbett research) as described by Golby et al.
Additional file 5
Details of oligonucleotides used in PCR, RT-PCR and RLM-RACE experiments.
Click here for file
Construction of the Rv1749c-Rv1750c and nirBD overexpressing plasmids
The Rv1749c-Rv1750c overexpressing plasmids pPG106 and pPG107 were constructed by PCR amplification of a 907bp fragment encompassing
Transcriptional start site mapping of was determined using the First Choice RNA ligase-mediated rapid amplification of cDNA ends (RLM-RACE) kit (Ambion) as per manufacturers instructions. Briefly, 10 ug of total RNA was treated with calf intestinal phosphatase (CIP) and tobacco acid pyrophosphatase (TAP) before ligation of an RNA Adapter oligonucleotide to the 5′ ends of the mRNA transcripts. A random-primed reverse transcription reaction was carried out to generate cDNA and then nested PCR reactions were performed on the cDNA using combinations of adapter and gene specific primers. Details concerning the nucleotide sequences of the 5′ outer and inner adapter sequences as well as 3′ outer and inner gene specific primers are given in the Additional file
Animal ethics statement
Animal work was carried out according to the UK Animal (Scientific Procedures) Act 1986. The study protocol was approved by the AHVLA Animal Use Ethics Committee (UK Home Office PCD number 70/6905).
Availability of supporting data section
Fully annotated microarray data have been deposited in BμG@Sbase (accession number: E-BUGS-150;
Competing interests
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
Authors' contributions
PG carried out the culturing of organisms, macrophage infections, microarrays, qRT-PCR, cloning, analysis of sequence data and writing of the manuscript. JN performed analysis of the Illumina sequence and PCR amplicon microarray data. AW and JH performed the analysis of the Agilent oligonucleotide microarray data and assisted in the uploading of the microarray data into the BμG@Sbase database. MAQ and SB were responsible for the Illumina sequencing. SH contributed to the analysis of the Illumina sequence data. NS contributed to the writing and critical review of the manuscript. RGH was a co-investigator who helped to guide the project. SG was the principle investigator on the project who guided the research and helped in the writing of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
We would like to acknowledge Kate Gould for her help in carrying out the oligonucleotide microarrays and Denise Waldron for her assistance in uploading of the microarray data into BμG@Sbase. We also thank Mark Chambers for comments on the manuscript, and BBSRC and Defra for funding the work (Grant no. BB/E018491/1).
The tuberculin test
Simultaneous detection and strain differentiation of Mycobacterium tuberculosis for diagnosis and epidemiology
Genetic diversity in the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex based on variable numbers of tandem DNA repeats
The population structure of Mycobacterium bovis in Great Britain: clonal expansion
Metabolic fingerprints of Mycobacterium bovis cluster with molecular type: implications for genotype-phenotype links
Functional analysis of a clonal deletion in an epidemic strain of Mycobacterium bovis reveals a role in lipid metabolism
Identification of small RNAs in Mycobacterium tuberculosis
Sequence-based analysis uncovers an abundance of non-coding RNA in the total transcriptome of Mycobacterium tuberculosis
Naming spoligotype patterns for the RD9-deleted lineage of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex;
The complete genome sequence of Mycobacterium bovis
Dindel: accurate indel calls from short-read data
Revisiting the evolution of Mycobacterium bovis
Mycobacterium bovis BCG response regulator essential for hypoxic dormancy
Amplified RNA synthesized from limited quantities of heterogeneous cDNA
Toxin-antitoxin loci are highly abundant in free-living but lost from host-associated prokaryotes
The PIN-domain ribonucleases and the prokaryotic VapBC toxin-antitoxin array
Prokaryotic toxin-antitoxin systems–the role in bacterial physiology and application in molecular biology
Structure and function of the LysR-type transcriptional regulator (LTTR) family proteins
Prokaryotic nitrate reduction: molecular properties and functional distinction among bacterial nitrate reductases
The Streptomyces coelicolor GlnR regulon: identification of new GlnR targets and evidence for a central role of GlnR in nitrogen metabolism in actinomycetes
Synonymous mutations in the human dopamine receptor D2 (DRD2) affect mRNA stability and synthesis of the receptor
A synonymous SNP of the corneodesmosin gene leads to increased mRNA stability and demonstrates association with psoriasis across diverse ethnic groups
Comparative transcriptomics reveals key gene expression differences between the human and bovine pathogens of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex
Systematic genetic nomenclature for type VII secretion systems
CRISPR–a widespread system that provides acquired resistance against phages in bacteria and archaea
Determinants of Mycobacterial Gene Expression
An internal antisense RNA regulates expression of the photosynthesis gene isiA
An antisense RNA controls synthesis of an SOS-induced toxin evolved from an antitoxin
Bacterial antisense RNAs: how many are there, and what are they doing?
The evolution of mycobacterial pathogenicity: clues from comparative genomics
Sur quelques proprietes du bacille tuberculeux d'origine, cultive sur la bile de boeuf glycerinee
The influence of reduced oxygen availability on pathogenicity and gene expression in Mycobacterium tuberculosis
Linear models and empirical bayes methods for assessing differential expression in microarray experiments


text:
IPS-BYPASS Question
- Bronze, 100 points or more
Hello experts,
I'm working with 2 4260 and a 4270, I will be implementing vlan pair and I would like to know what happens with the traffic if for any reason the IPS fails. Lets say that the failure is due to a power issue.
Yes. You want to create a stand by path between VLAN 310 and 311 in the switch.
Add an additional interface to each VLAN on the switch, cable them together with an ethernet patch cable.
Turn on Spanning Tree Protocol on VLAN 310 and 311 and set the "fail-over" path thru your patch cable to a higher STP cost.
Once the STP BTDU's fail to pass thru the IPS sensor, the stand by path thru the fail over cable will be enabled.
You'll have to play with the timing options to get it to happen in less than the standard STP of 15 seconds or so.
- Bob


text:
Decommissioned full movie online free on 123movies.
When an ex-CIA agent discovers his household have been kidnapped he units out to rescue them, solely to find they're being held hostage and will not be launched except he carries out a mission to assassinate the President. He should use his superior abilities to outwit the boys holding his household and forestall the assassination from going forward earlier than the clock runs out for his household.
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text:
Show transcribed image text Problem 3.10 in Chapter 3. Note that H(omega) can be obtained with the use of the phasor domain circuit as well as the ODE for v(t) given in Problem 3.10. Determine the frequency response H(omega) = V/Vs of the circuit in Exercise Problem 3.17 in Chapter 3. Sketch |H(omega)| versus omega ge 0. A linear system with input f(t) and output y(t) is described by the ODE d2y/dt2 + 4 dy/dt + 4y(t) = df/dt. Determine the frequency response H(omega) = Y/F 0f the system. Determine the amplitude response \H(omega)\ and phase response H(omega) of the system in Problem 5.5. Also, plot H(omega) versus omega for -10 < omega < 10. A linear circuit with input f(t) and output y (t) is described by the frequency response Y/F= H(omega) = j omega/4+j omega. Determine the following: Amplitude of y(t) when f(t) = 5 cos(3t + pi/4) V. Output y(t) when the input is f(t) = 8 + 2 sin(4t) V. A linear system has the frequency response H(omega) =
how do you solve this problem? 5.5 and 5.6 since theyre related.


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Integration of STEAM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts & Mathematics) education to enrich kindergarten through 8th grade learning for Ann Arbor Public Schools students.
Online learning option available to all public, non-public and homeschool students in Grades 5-12.
Expanded early childhood education offerings, including Great Start Readiness Program (GSRP) and tuition preschool classrooms located at Allen and Thurston Elementary Schools for 4-year-olds.
Pathways is a high school campus for students preferring a smaller, more intimate academic environment. Through multiple pathways and flexible learning opportunities students can learn in a traditional instructional model, online, or project-based setting. Students also have the opportunity for community internships and dual enrollment earning college credit. Pathways students will meet all the Michigan Merit Curriculum High School graduation requirements.
The rigorous IB program develops intellectual, personal, emotional and social skills to live, learn and work in a rapidly globalizing world. The International Baccalaureate program for Primary Years (grades K- 5), Middle Years (grades 6-10), and Diploma Years (grades 11-12) is located at Mitchell Elementary School, Scarlett Middle School and Huron High School. The IB Program will be fully implemented in school year 2016-17.
Offering expanded World Languages throughout our schools to include Spanish, German, Latin and French with the addition of Chinese, Arabic and American Sign Language – throughout select elementary, middle and high schools.
The Young Fives program gives children the "gift of time" to develop academically, socially and developmentally in a friendly and caring environment. The program is designed for students who are five years old between May 1 and September 1, or by December 1 with a waiver. Young Fives classrooms are located at Abbot, Bryant, Dicken, Haisley, Lawton and Logan Elementaries.
We thank the Ann Arbor community for supporting the $45,855,000 technology bond, over 10 years, that will provide exceptional technology support and devices for our students. Initiatives for 2014-2015 include:
AAPS and its Phyiscal Properties department continues work to maintain our schools and to ensure a safe and improved educational environment for our students and staff.


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Cricket Australia will introduce a watertight testing regime for bowlers suspected of throwing in domestic competitions this summer, bringing its system into line with tough new global standards.
Fairfax Media can reveal CA will adopt International Cricket Council methods for dealing with suspect actions in the domestic one-day tournament (rebadged as the BBQ Matadors Cup, starting in Brisbane on Saturday), the Sheffield Shield and the Big Bash League, with the latter a particular focus because of the influx of overseas players.
A bowler who is mentioned by three umpires in one match will be reported, and will have to be tested at the National Cricket Centre in Brisbane within 14 days.
The key difference from previous seasons is that the testing will be watched by an independent expert who will compare the bowler's action in the laboratory with match footage to ensure he is using the same action and intensity as he would in a game.
Bowlers found to flex their elbow by more than 15 degrees will be suspended from bowling in Australian domestic competitions, with a 90-day window before they can ask to be tested again.
"Cricket Australia will be adopting the International Cricket Council's newly developed global policy and testing protocol for the analysis of doubtful bowling actions for domestic competitions in Australia," a CA spokesman confirmed.
"We have advised state associations and KFC Big Bash League clubs of this amendment. The change ... ensures CA's domestic competitions are in line with international standards, testing all players under one common process ensuring consistency."
Throwing became a hot issue in the BBL two summers ago when then Brisbane Heat coach Darren Lehmann publicly questioned the action of West Indies import Marlon Samuels after a game against the Melbourne Renegades.
The Renegades have been home to Sri Lankan spin great Muthiah Muralidaran, the owner of the world's most scrutinised bowling action, for the past two seasons, but it's doubtful he will return to the BBL to fill the Renegades' remaining international vacancy this summer given the 43-year-old has played very little cricket of late.
Renegades chief executive Stuart Coventry welcomed the introduction of ICC standards on doubtful bowling actions as long as "it's one rule for all and particular players aren't singled out because of media hype".
"The testing protocols have improved and so umpires feel a lot more comfortable that if they make a report it's not going to go into a black hole," Coventry said.
Young Queensland quick Cameron Gannon was reported and suspended after the 2012-13 season, and his action was approved and his suspension lifted before last summer. South Australian captain Johan Botha has been tested and cleared three times during his career and will now have to operate under more stringent procedures.
Lehmann, as Australian coach, now sits on the ICC cricket committee that instigated the recent global effort to enforce the law against throwing. That committee is chaired by former Indian captain and leg-spinner Anil Kumble.
The ICC crackdown has resulted in Pakistan's Saeed Ajmal, Sri Lanka's Sachithra Senanayake and New Zealand's Kane Williamson being suspended from bowling in international cricket, with several others on report. In the past fortnight, the West Indies' Sunil Narine and Pakistan's Mohammad Hafeez have been reported in the Champions League T20 in India. They can ask to be tested or continue to bowl, but the latter course of action carries a risk of being rubbed out if they are reported a second time.
It is expected that the Champions League, in which Cricket Australia is a shareholder along with the Board of Control for Cricket in India and Cricket South Africa, will also fall into line with the ICC in future seasons.


text: Hello: I'm dealing with a set of machines with unrestricted sudo for admins ("sudo -s"). It's not something I can immediately change (though I'm working toward a more restrictive attitude and policy). I'm trying to at least do some auditing via the following audit rule: -a always,exit -F arch=b32 -S execve -F uid=0 -F auid>=500 -F auid!=4294967295 -k privileged -a always,exit -F arch=b64 -S execve -F uid=0 -F auid>=500 -F auid!=4294967295 -k privileged It mostly does the right thing, except for cases when an admin logs in and restarts a service. If it's running a privileged process, that process will have an auid of the user that last ran "service foo restart". Is there a way to drop auid for services restarted by individual admins? I'm not sure if run_init does it, but I can't use it anyway because selinux is disabled on those machines. Thanks for any advice. Regards, -- McGill University IT Security Konstantin "Kay" Ryabitsev Montréal, Québec


text:
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Deleveraging? What Deleveraging?
- Gavin Grant
- 2 years ago
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1 The report shows that the world has not yet begun to de-lever and global debt ratios are breaking new highs. At the same time, in a poisonous combination, world underlying growth and inflation are also lower than previously expected, reducing global debt capacity. The authors argue that central banks in advanced economies should be slow to raise interest rates, given the fragile deleveraging process. Moreover, the European Central Bank should pursue an aggressive policy of quantitative easing in order to fulfill its mandate of price stability while fostering debt stabilisation and easing credit conditions. ISBN: Geneva Reports on the World Economy 16 This report provides a multi-dimensional perspective on leverage for both advanced and emerging economies. The report s comprehensive approach includes both public and private debt, with the latter broken down on sectoral lines (households, non-financial corporates, financial sector). It emphasises the macroeconomic impact of leverage, with a sharp distinction between normal recessions and the long-lasting impact on output generated by excessive leverage and financial crises. Deleveraging? What Deleveraging? It is widely accepted that high levels of debt (of various forms) have played a central role in the global financial crisis, the euro crisis and many previous crisis episodes. The adverse macroeconomic impact of deleveraging also helps to explain the slow pace of recovery among the advanced economies in recent years, while the post-2009 surge in debt accumulation in a number of emerging markets (especially China) raises the prospect of a new wave of debt-related crises unless corrective policies are implemented. Geneva Reports on the World Economy Deleveraging? What Deleveraging? Luigi Buttiglione, Philip R. Lane, Lucrezia Reichlin and Vincent Reinhart However, successful exit from a leverage trap also includes appropriate fiscal and macro-prudential policies, together with the restructuring of privatesector (bank, household, corporate) debt and sovereign debt where required. Furthermore, given the risks and costs associated with excessive leverage, the authors argue that more needs to be done to improve resilience to debt shocks and discourage excessive debt accumulation. ICMB International Center For Monetary and Banking Studies Centre for Economic Policy Research ISBN rd Floor 77 Bastwick Street LONDON EC1V 3PZ UK TEL: +44 (0) FAX: +44 (0) ICMB International Center For Monetary and Banking Studies
3 Deleveraging? What Deleveraging? Geneva Reports on the World Economy 16
4 International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies (ICMB) International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies 2, Chemin Eugène-Rigot 1202 Geneva Switzerland Tel: (41 22) Fax: (41 22) Web: September 2014 International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies Centre for Economic Policy Research Centre for Economic Policy Research 3rd Floor 77 Bastwick Street London EC1V 3PZ UK Tel: +44 (20) Fax: +44 (20) Web: ISBN:
5 Deleveraging? What Deleveraging? Geneva Reports on the World Economy 16 Luigi Buttiglione Brevan Howard Investment Products Philip R. Lane Trinity College Dublin Lucrezia Reichlin London Business School Vincent Reinhart Morgan Stanley ICMB International Center For Monetary and Banking Studies CIMB CENTRE INTERNATIONAL D ETUDES MONETAIRES ET BANCAIRES CEPR PRESS
6 International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies (ICMB) The International Centre for Monetary and Banking Studies was created in 1973 as an independent, non-profit foundation. It is associated with Geneva s Graduate Institute of International Studies. Its aim is to foster exchanges of views between the financial sector, central banks and academics on issues of common interest. It is financed through grants from banks, financial institutions and central banks. The Center sponsors international conferences, public lectures, original research and publications. It has earned a solid reputation in the Swiss and international banking community where it is known for its contribution to bridging the gap between theory and practice in the field of international banking and finance. In association with CEPR, the Center launched a new series of Geneva Reports on the World Economy in The eleven subsequent volumes have attracted considerable interest among practitioners, policy-makers and scholars working on the reform of international financial architecture. ICMB is non-partisan and does not take any view on policy. Its publications, including the present report, reflect the opinions of the authors, not of ICMB or any of its sponsoring institutions. President of the Foundation Board Director Thomas Jordan Charles Wyplosz Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) is a network of almost 900 research economists based mostly in European universities. The Centre s goal is twofold: to promote world-class research, and to get the policy-relevant results into the hands of key decision-makers. CEPR s guiding principle is Research excellence with policy relevance. A registered charity since it was founded in 1983, CEPR is independent of all public and private interest groups. It takes no institutional stand on economic policy matters and its core funding comes from its Institutional Members and sales of publications. Because it draws on such a large network of researchers, its output reflects a broad spectrum of individual viewpoints as well as perspectives drawn from civil society. CEPR research may include views on policy, but the Executive Committee of the Centre does not give prior review to its publications. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and not those of CEPR. Chair of the Board President Director Research Director Guillermo de la Dehesa Richard Portes Richard Baldwin Kevin Hjortshøj O Rourke
7 About the Authors Luigi Buttiglione joined Brevan Howard as Head of Global Strategy in March Previously, he was Head of Research at Fortress Investment Group ( ). Before joining Fortress, Luigi was Chief Economist at Rubicon Fund Management LLP ( ), Chief Strategist at BlueCrest Asset Management LLP (2003), Head of European Economics at Barclays Capital Securities Limited ( ), a Senior Economist at Deutsche Bank AG ( ) and a Senior Economist at Banca d Italia ( ). While at Banca d Italia, he was also a member of the ECB Working Group of Forecasting. Philip R. Lane is Whately Professor of Political Economy at Trinity College Dublin. He has published widely on financial globalisation, macroeconomic policy and European monetary integration. He has also acted as an academic consultant to a range of international organisations and national central banks. He is a Managing Editor of Economic Policy and a Research Fellow of CEPR. Lucrezia Reichlin is Professor of Economics at London Business School, cofounder and director at now-casting economics limited, board member at Unicredit Banking group and Ageas Insurance. She is an elected fellow of the British Academy and a research fellow of the CEPR. She is the chair of the Scientific Council at Bruegel, the Brussels based think-tank. She has been director general of research at the European Central Bank from 2005 to Reichlin has published extensively in econometrics where she has pioneered work on the estimation of large dimensional models and in monetary policy. Vincent Reinhart joined Morgan Stanley in October 2011 as a Managing Director and Chief US Economist. In that capacity, Mr. Reinhart is responsible for the firm s analysis of the US economy. For the four years prior to joining Morgan Stanley, Mr. Reinhart was a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a nonpartisan think tank located in Washington, DC. He previously spent more than two decades working in the Federal Reserve System, where he held a number of senior positions in the Divisions of Monetary Affairs and International Finance. For the last six years of his Fed career, he served as Director of the Division of Monetary Affairs and secretary and economist of the Federal Open Market Committee. In that capacity, he was the senior staff member providing advice to Fed officials on the appropriate choice and communication of monetary policy. In his research at the Fed and AEI, Mr. Reinhart worked on topics as varied as the conduct and communication of monetary policy, auctions of US Treasury securities, the long-lived consequences of financial crises, and the patterns of international capital flows. At AEI, he frequently commented in the media on the economic outlook and macroeconomic and financial policies. v
8 Acknowledgements We thank Susan Lund of McKinsey Global Institute for the generous sharing of the data underlying Figures 1.2 and 1.3. We thank Alberto Caruso, Caroline Mehigan, Rogelio Mercado, Sandrine Perret, Alex Redmond, Giovanni Ricco and George Sorg-Langhans for excellent research assistance. Philip Lane also thanks the Institute for New Economic Thinking for a research grant. vi
9 Contents Acknowledgements List of Conference Participants Foreword vi ix xv 1 Introduction Motivation and main conclusions Leverage: What we mean by it and why it matters Guide to the report 8 2 Global debt analysis: Deleveraging? What deleveraging? 11 3 Leverage cycles and the poisonous combination of rising leverage and slowing growth Leverage cycles and debt capacity A poisonous combination of high leverage and slower output 20 Appendix 3A: The Leverage cycle 27 Appendix 3B: Debt capacity 34 4 Case studies The United States Eurozone: A policy problem Emerging markets: The next crisis? 65 5 Policy issues What have we learnt from past crises? Policy options. Where are we now? 81 6 Discussions 87 Morning discussion 87 Afternoon discussion 92 Data Appendix 101 References 103
11 List of Conference Participants Edmond Alphandéry Mourtaza Asad-Syed Katrin Assenmacher Vít Bárta Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Jan Marc Berk Rémy Bersier Laurence Boone Claudio Borio Luigi Buttiglione Chairman Centre for European Policy Studies Brussels Head of Investment Strategy Société Générale Geneva Head of Monetary Policy Analysis Swiss National Bank Zürich Advisor to Governor Czech National Bank Prague Professor, Ecole d Economie de Paris, Université Paris 1 Deputy Chairman, Conseil d Analyse Economique Paris Division Director Economic and Research Division De Nederlandsche Bank NV Amsterdam Member of the Executive Board Banque Julius Baer & Cie SA Geneva Managing Director Chief Europe Economist Bank of America Merrill Lynch Paris Head of the Monetary and Economic Department Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Basel Head of Global Strategy Brevan Howard Investment Products Geneva
12 x Deleveraging? What Deleveraging? Mark Carey Olli Castrén Benoît Coeuré Jean-Pierre Danthine Jacques Delpla Mathias Dewatripont Andreas Dombret Christophe Donay Steve Donze Federico Fubini Paolo Garonna Patrice Gautry Associate Director International Finance Federal Reserve Board Washington, DC Economist Brevan Howard Investment Products Geneva Member of the Executive Board European Central Bank Frankfurt am Main Vice-Chairman of the Governing Board Swiss National Bank Geneva Adjunct Professor Toulouse School of Economics Executive Director National Bank of Belgium Brussels Member of the Executive Board Deutsche Bundesbank Frankfurt am Main Head of Asset Allocation and Macro Research Pictet & Cie Geneva Macroeconomist Pictet Asset Management SA Geneva Columnist La Repubblica Rome Secretary General FEBAF Rome Chief Economist UBP Geneva
13 List of Conference Participants xi Hans Genberg Stefan Gerlach Olivier Ginguené Michel Girardin Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas Augusto Hasman Harald Hau Yi Huang Paul Inderbinen Thomas Jordan Gero Jung Jean Keller Adviser Bank Negara Malaysia Deputy Governor Central Bank of Ireland Dublin Group Managing Director Pictet Asset Management SA Geneva Lecturer University of Lausanne University of Geneva Founder MacroGuide Professor of Economics UC Berkeley BCC Programme Manager and Economist The Graduate Institute Geneva Professor of Economics and Finance Geneva University Assistant Professor of Economics & Pictet Chair in Finance and Development The Graduate Institute Geneva Deputy Head, Multilateral Affairs State Secretariat for International Financial Matters Basel Chairman of the Governing Board Swiss National Bank Zürich Chief Economist Mirabaud Geneva CEO Argos Investment Managers S.A. Geneva
14 xii Deleveraging? What Deleveraging? Pierre Keller Signe Krogstrup Jean-Pierre Landau Valérie Lemaigre Henri Loubergé José Luis Malo de Molina Alessandro Merli Ouarda Merrouche Atif Mian Maurice Monbaron Carlo Monticelli Rahul Mukherjee Kiyohiko Nishimura Former Senior Partner Lombard Odier Geneva Deputy Head of Monetary Policy Analysis Swiss National Bank Zürich Professor Sciences Po Paris Chief Economist BCGE Geneva Professor of Economics Geneva University Director General Banco de España Madrid Frankfurt Correspondent Il Sole24 Ore Frankfurt am Main BCC Programme Manager The Graduate Institute Geneva Professor of Economics and Public Policy Princeton University Member of the Board Crédit Agricole (Suisse) SA Geneva Head of International Financial Relations Ministry of Economy and Finance Rome Assistant Professor The Graduate Institute Geneva Dean Graduate School of Economics University of Tokyo
15 List of Conference Participants xiii Fabio Panetta Ugo Panizza Pierre Pâris Sandrine Perret Adrien Pichoud Richard Portes Fabrizio Quirighetti Lucrezia Reichlin Vincent Reinhart Alain Robert Märten Ross Jean-Pierre Roth Deputy Governor-Member of the Governing Board Banca d Italia Roma Professor of Economics The Graduate Institute Geneva CEO Banque Pâris Bertrand Sturdza Geneva Economist Brevan Howard Investment Products Geneva Economist SYZ Asset Management Geneva Professor of Economics London Business School President, CEPR Chief Economist SYZ Asset Management Geneva Professor of Economics London Business School Economist Morgan Stanley New York Vice Chairman Wealth Management UBS AG Zürich Deputy Secretary General Ministry of Finance of Estonia Chairman Banque Cantonale de Genève Geneva
16 xiv Deleveraging? What Deleveraging? Amlan Roy Hans-Joerg Rudloff Alexander Swoboda Gianluca Tarolli Cédric Tille Angel Ubide Pawel Wyczanski Charles Wyplosz Attilio Zanetti Fritz Zurbruegg Patrick Zweifel Managing Director Global Demographics & Pensions Research Crédit Suisse Investment Bank London Chairman Marcuard Holding Zurich Professor of Economics Emeritus The Graduate Institute Geneva Market Economist BORDIER & Cie Geneva Professor of International Economics The Graduate Institute Geneva Director of Global Economics D.E. Shaw Group Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Advisor, Financial System National Bank of Poland Warsaw Professor of International Economics The Graduate Institute Geneva Director ICMB, Geneva Head of Economic Analysis Swiss National Bank Zürich Member of the Governing Board Swiss National Bank Chief Economist Pictet Asset Management S.A
17 Foreword Since 1999 the Geneva Reports on the World Economy, published jointly by CEPR and ICMB, have informed the highest calibre discussion and debate on global economics issues. The 16th issue delivers on this reputation: the Report provides an in-depth analysis of the role of debt dynamics in the recovery from the global crisis. The authors approach is comprehensive and takes into account the changing nature of debt and the way it relates to the global investment position. The report offers not only the context of debt dynamics over the last decade, but also a detailed analysis of the changing nature of debt over time and across the world, the occurrence of leverage cycles, and the capacity for debt and leverage and the policies to deploy in managing both debt and the legacies of the past crises. We are very grateful to Luigi Buttiglione, Philip Lane, Lucrezia Reichlin and Vincent Reinhart for work in devising this report, and to the participants of the discussion of the issues raised by this Report that took place on 9 May 2014 for the insights they provide. We are also thankful to the CEPR Publications team and to Anil Shamdasani for their work in making the publication of this report a smooth and professional process. This report is clear in its outlook: the policy path to less volatile debt dynamics is a narrow one, and it is already clear that developed economies at least must expect prolonged low growth or another crisis along the way. We hope and expect this Geneva Report to make a considerable contribution to the discussion around de-leveraging policy. Charles Wyplosz, Director, ICMB Tessa Ogden, Deputy Director, CEPR August 2014 xv
19 1 Introduction 1.1 Motivation and main conclusions After the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the world entered the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The crisis affected mainly developed economies: in some cases, in particular the US and the Eurozone, output had already started to contract one year earlier (see the dating by, respectively, the NBER and CEPR). However, after Lehman, the crisis deepened and spread worldwide. The output contraction in the US ended in the third quarter of 2009 but the recovery has been weak. In the Eurozone the situation has been worse, with a double dip in 2011 that seems to have ended only recently. Emerging markets did better during the crisis, but have recently slowed down. Both the length and depth of the crisis, as well as the weak recovery, cannot be understood without an analysis of the role of debt dynamics. This is the aim of this report. We provide a multi-dimensional perspective on leverage for both advanced and emerging economies. Our comprehensive approach includes both public and private debt, with the latter broken down along sectoral lines (households, non-financial corporates, financial sector). Moreover, we take into account national adding-up constraints by relating sectoral debt levels to the overall international investment position. We examine debt dynamics during the pre-crisis period in developed economies and the subsequent phase of adjustment attempts in recent years. In addition, we highlight a new wave of debt accumulation in emerging markets that has occurred since In this analysis, we emphasise the macroeconomic impact of leverage, with a sharp distinction between normal recessions, however deep, and the long-lasting impact on the level of output and output growth that can be generated by excessive leverage and financial crises. Accordingly, the report provides a deep dive into the details of global debt dynamics over the past decade, with consistent comparisons across regions and sectors and an emphasis on the interaction of debt and income. In 2009, half of the economies of the world were in recession and about three quarters of global GDP was in economies that were contracting. The progress of repair since then has been decidedly uneven, importantly related to policy choices. Also, some nations that avoided the direct effects of the financial meltdown have recently built up excesses that raise the odds of a home-grown crisis. Contrary to widely held beliefs, the world has not yet begun to delever and the global debt-to-gdp is still growing, breaking new highs (see, for example, Figure 1
20 2 Deleveraging, What Deleveraging? 1.1). At the same time, in a poisonous combination, world growth and inflation are also lower than previously expected, also though not only as a legacy of the past crisis. Deleveraging and slower nominal growth are in many cases interacting in a vicious loop, with the latter making the deleveraging process harder and the former exacerbating the economic slowdown. Moreover, the global capacity to take on debt has been reduced through the combination of slower expansion in real output and lower inflation. Figure 1.1 World debt World total debt ex-financials (% of GDP) Source: Authors calculation based on OECD, IMF and national accounts data. See Data Appendix at the end of the report. Debt capacity in the years to come will depend on future dynamics of output growth, inflation and real interest rates. We argue that potential output growth in developed economies has been on a declining path since the 1980s and that the crisis has caused a further, permanent decline in both the level and growth rate of output. Moreover, we observe that output growth has been slowing since 2008 also in emerging markets, most prominently China. In this context, the equilibrium real interest rate that is, the interest rate compatible with full employment is also poised to stay at historical low levels and debt capacity will be under pressure if the actual real rate settles above its equilibrium level. This is likely to be the case in jurisdictions subject to the combined pressure of declining inflation and the zero lower bound constraint. Additional concerns come from possible increases in risk premia in those countries with a high level of legacy debt. Further insight is provided by Figures 1.2 and 1.3, which show the composition of financial assets for developed markets and emerging markets. 1 The data show that debt-type instruments dwarf equity-type instruments (stock market capitalisation). Moreover, the figures illustrate that the sectoral composition of debt and the relative roles of bank loans versus bonds vary across time and groups. 1 These charts focus on the value of financial assets in current dollars at current exchange rates.
21 Introduction 3 In addition, Figures 1.2 and 1.3 vividly show that global debt accumulation was led until 2008 by developed economies. Since then, it has continued under the impulse provided by a sharp rise in the debt levels of emerging economies. This group of countries are a main source of concern in terms of future debt trajectories, especially China and the so-called fragile eight, which could host the next leg of the global leverage crisis. Figure 1.2 The composition of financial assets, developed markets, US$ billion 200, , , , , ,000 80,000 Loans outstanding Financial sector bonds Non-financial corporate bonds Government bonds Stock market capitalisation 60,000 40,000 20, e Source: McKinsey Global Institute. Figure 1.3 The composition of financial assets, emerging markets, US$ billion 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Loans outstanding Financial sector bonds Non-financial corporate bonds Government bonds Stock market capitalisation 10,000 5, e Source: McKinsey Global Institute.
22 4 Deleveraging, What Deleveraging? Still, the legacy of the past crisis remains severe in developed markets, especially in the peripheral countries of the Eurozone, which remain vulnerable due to the complexity of their crisis and the partial inadequacies of the mix and sequence of the policies adopted. Anglo-Saxon economies namely, the US and the UK seem to have managed the trade-off between deleveraging policies and output costs better so far, by avoiding a credit crunch while achieving a meaningful reduction of debt exposure of the private sector and the financial system. This result, however, was achieved at the cost of a substantial re-leveraging of the public sector, including the central banks, whose deleveraging is a primary policy challenge for the years to come. 1.2 Leverage: What we mean by it and why it matters The concept of leverage has many applications in economics. 2 At the sectoral level, the levels of household debt and corporate debt are much studied in terms of their implications for consumption and investment behaviour. The leverage of financial-sector entities (banks and other types of financial intermediaries) also gives rise to a range of concerns in relation to the incentives facing financial firms and vulnerability to funding shocks. At the sovereign level, the stock of public debt has implications for projected levels of spending and taxation, in addition to determining exposure to financial shocks. Finally, the aggregate level of external debt matters for national macroeconomic performance, with the stock of external debt also an important factor in determining exposure to international funding crises and sudden stops in capital flows. Of course, the stock of debt has to be assessed in the context of the overall balance sheet. On the liability side, debt gives rise to more concerns if there is only a thin layer of equity liabilities to provide a buffer against losses. On the asset side, debt that is backed by liquid assets with stable returns is less likely to generate repayment problems than debt that is used to fund illiquid assets with volatile returns. At the same time, a snapshot of a balance sheet is insufficient to conduct a debt sustainability exercise. In particular, the stock of financial assets does not provide a good guide to repayment capacity, since much debt is serviced through future income streams that are not typically capitalised in the balance sheet. For example, household debt may be primarily serviced through wage earnings, while the main asset for most households is non-financial (the family home). Similarly, early-stage firms may have few assets but healthy streams of projected future earnings. For banks, the quality of loan assets is determined by the underlying income streams of their customers. As for the government, it typically has limited financial assets, holds very illiquid non-financial assets and funds debt servicing from future revenue streams. While taking note of the wide range of other relevant factors, the debt-toincome ratio remains a key metric in assessing debt sustainability. In truth, this 2 See also the review of different types of debt overhang provided by Brown and Lane (2011).
23 Introduction 5 is really a proxy for the ratio of debt servicing expenditure to income, which is the ultimate determinant of debt affordability and depends on the average interest rate applied to the debt. In turn, the average interest rate depends on the co-evolution of benchmark risk-free rates and the risk premia that pertain to a given debt category. Of course, the debt-to-income ratio is not a sufficient statistic, since debts can also be paid off by selling assets. In related fashion, a debtor s willingness to service her debts also depends on her net worth (value of assets minus value of liabilities), especially if her debts are collateralised by her assets such that the debt can be wiped out by transferring assets to her creditors. Accordingly, the fluctuations in net worth that are triggered by shocks to asset prices are an important factor in determining debt sustainability. In particular, this can give rise to a procyclical dynamic by which rising asset prices improve the net worth of borrowers, permitting the accumulation of extra debt (fuelling further asset price appreciation), whereas a reversal in asset prices is associated with a tightening of debt limits (placing downward pressure on asset prices). This feedback loop between leverage and asset prices is a primary channel linking financial and housing markets with macroeconomic performance. 3 This report will illustrate also how the interaction of asset prices and leverage affected adjustment dynamics during the crisis, especially in the US and the Eurozone. As noted above, the liability mix between equity and debt is also a key factor in determining debt sustainability. By providing loss absorption capacity, a high equity-to-debt funding ratio reduces the default risk on the debt component. In the household context, the equity-to-debt ratio can be boosted by insisting on significant down payments on housing purchases; for non-financial corporates, the equity-debt mix will be heavily influenced by the structure of the tax system and corporate governance policies; and regulatory policies are a key factor in determining capital-to-asset ratios in the banking sector. In Section 4, we will argue that the delayed recapitalisation of the banking sector in the Eurozone has been one of the causal factors in the very weak credit conditions that have prevailed since An excessive level of debt poses both acute and chronic risks. In relation to acute risks, the emergence of concerns about a debtor s willingness or ability to service her debts may lead to a funding crisis, in which creditors are unwilling to extend new loans or rollover existing commitments. Since such concerns may be driven by expectations about a debtor s future ability or willingness to service the debt, there is scope for multiple equilibria in which the beliefs of creditors take on a self-fulfilling quality: if creditors retain confidence, risk premia are low and the debt is sustainable; if panic sets in, risk premia shoot up and the debt is no longer sustainable. In related fashion, a surge in risk premia will also be associated with a sell-off in asset markets, as investors fear that debtors may be forced into fire-sale disposals of assets if debts cannot be rolled over. This confidence-sustainability feedback loop is a key property in evaluating debt levels above some threshold 3 See, amongst many others, Adrian et al. (2013), Fostel and Geanakoplos (2013), and Brunnermeier and Sannikov (2014).
24 6 Deleveraging, What Deleveraging? level (below which debt levels are safe enough that this feedback loop is not operative). There is considerable evidence that a high stock of debt increases vulnerability to the risk of a financial crisis. 4 The three main types of crisis are banking crises, sovereign debt crises and external crises (where an economy is unable to rollover its external debt and/or obtain external funding to cover a current account deficit). These crises can occur in isolation or in various combinations (Reinhart and Rogoff, 2009). Moreover, a crisis along one dimension can trigger crises along the other dimensions. For instance, a sudden stop in external funding may induce a wave of bankruptcies that threaten the banking sector, while the (direct and indirect) costs of a banking crisis may generate a sovereign debt crisis. In the other direction, of course, a sovereign debt crisis can undermine the health of the banking system and also lead to non-repayment of foreign liabilities. Excessive debt levels also can give rise to moral hazard problems and distributional conflicts across sectors. For instance, a government may choose to take over private liabilities, either for efficiency reasons or in response to political pressure. In turn, the anticipation of such fiscal bailouts may lead to lower repayment discipline among private-sector creditors, especially if debt problems are sufficiently widespread in the population to render punishment threats noncredible (Arellano and Kocherlakota, 2014). A similar logic applies if banks are taken into public ownership and private-sector debtors believe that governmentowned banks will take a softer line in enforcing repayment. Finally, from a national perspective, the aggregate net international investment position fixes an aggregate resource constraint for the economy: if the aggregate economy is highly indebted vis-à-vis the rest of the world, there is a limit to the effectiveness of domestic policies in shifting debt obligations across sectors. In contrast, a sectoral debt problem in a creditor economy poses fewer risks, since those sectors that have positive levels of net financial assets provide a counterweight to those sectors with stocks of net financial liabilities. This basic consideration illustrates the different implications of high stocks of sovereign debt in creditor countries (such as Japan) versus debtor countries (such as the euro periphery). Moreover, the 2007-onwards global financial crisis has provided fresh evidence that the resolution of severe crises is extremely costly. 5 At a global level, the advanced economies suffered a severe recession during , while the second wave of the crisis in Europe from 2011 onwards further prolonged subpar macroeconomic performance across large parts of the Eurozone. Looking across countries, the severity of the crisis in terms of the decline in consumption and investment was most severe in those countries that had accumulated the largest debt imbalances during the pre-crisis credit boom of (Giannone et al., 2011; Lane and Milesi-Ferretti, 2011, 2012, 2014). Finally, the international nature of the crisis also highlights the interdependence across modern financial systems a crisis that is triggered by an isolated event in one country can quickly 4 See, amongst many others, Reinhart and Rogoff (2009), Jorda et al. (2011), Gourinchas and Obstfeld (2012) and Catão and Milesi-Ferretti (2013). 5 McKinsey Global Institute (2010) provides extensive evidence that macroeconomic recovery in the aftermath of financial crises tends to be extremely slow; see also Reinhart and Rogoff (2009).
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