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Crop-livestock systems research in the Andean region: eco-regional approach, methods and procedures. 1
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1 Crop-livestock systems research in the Andean region: eco-regional approach, methods and procedures. 1 Carlos U. León-Velarde 2 Roberto A. Quiroz 3 Summary Increased population, low agricultural productivity, pressure for land, and overexploitation of natural resources are current problems in the Andean eco-region. Knowledge of the region is vast, but results from research site specific have been seldom integrated. A holistic eco-regional research approach is required to solve the problems and contribute to regional development. To this end, the appropriate definition of the term eco-region and the proper use of methods and procedures to generate and adapt technology are necessary for sustainable development. This paper aims to present the integration and management of knowledge in a holistic way for an effective application of systems analysis research to an eco-regional context. Introduction Agricultural researchers apply the scientific method to overcome factors limiting agricultural productivity. Appropriate technology and financial resources are keys limiting factors, particularly in resource poor farms. A close look at the scientific method makes us wonder if this method per se may be applied to solve technological and policy problems that constraint agricultural productivity. In a restrictive sense, the scientific method can be seen as a process that utilizes knowledge to generate new knowledge (Figure 1,adapted from Cañas and Lavados, 1989). Problem solving requires adaptation of knowledge to overcome limiting factors. The successful use of technology to solve major constraints to agricultural production relies upon an adequate experience with the problems within a specified context, and a good application of available knowledge. When this interface is used to solve agricultural problems of small farmers with their active participation, we say we are applying systems analysis research within the methodology of farming system research (FSR). Many of the reasons are already presented elsewhere (Dent, 1993, Thornton, 1991). This paper aims to contribute to the definition of eco-regional research and the integration and management of resources in a holistic way, for a more effective application of systems analysis research. It is not the authors intention to present a comprehensive review of the methods and procedures used to solve problems. Some examples from the experience in the Andean region are presented to show how the application of different tools and procedures can help in the context of an eco-regional research work. 1 Document presented to the Livestock Eco-regional workshop; ILRI. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. 5-8 October Specialist in Animal Production; Coordinator of livestock eco-regional research/andean region. ILRI-CIP 3 Specialist in land use management; Head of Production Systems and Natural Resource Management. CIP. The authors acknowledge the helpful comments from Dr. Victor Mares; his suggestions are greatly appreciated.
2 Knowledge generation Scientific method Application of Knowledge OBJECTIVE PROBLEM HYPOTHESIS ANALYSIS EXPERIMENTATION AVAILABLE KNOWLEDGE YES IS TECHNOLOGY AVAILABLE? NO RESULTS SOCIO-ECONOMIC constraints PORTFOLIO OF SOLUTIONS NEW KNOWLEDGE EX-ANTE VIABLE? BEST SOLUTION NO EX-POST VIABLE? YES TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE Figure 1. Linking scientific method with knowledge use in FSR; (adapted from Cañas and Lavados, 1989). Towards a framework of eco-regional research Apparently, there is no consensus about the meaning of eco-region (Thornton, 1998). However, the eco-regional approach makes implicit the choices for various ways of agricultural land use that can be made, and the unavoidable trade off among objectives (Rabbinge, 1991). Consequently, the first step is to define the meaning of eco-region. The definition of a system group of physical components that have a structure and function help to understand the concept of eco-region. Fundamentally, a system has limits, components, inputs, outputs, and relationships among components. When we decide to separate a particular component as a system, we are not defining a new system, but accepting a simplified work hierarchical level within some boundaries that limit a particular sub-system. Nevertheless, the relationship among components of the defined system and the environment need to be studied to understand better the behavior of that system. An eco-region can be defined as an area that shares biological and socio-economic characteristic within administrative boundaries. These characteristic help to identify biophysical and socioeconomic opportunities and constraints for development. Therefore, an eco-regional research approach is a way of carrying out quantitative and integrative research on eco-regions. Eco-regions contain a diversity of soils, water resources, crops and livestock, and people in diverse social and economic conditions, who aim at an optimal and sustainable use of resources for agricultural development. Consequently, the eco-regional research approach requires the integration across disciplines, particularly of biophysical and socioeconomic sciences. We consider the Andean region as a system with sub-regions, each with particular biological, economic, social and climate characteristics. Therefore, the sub-regions, Northern (green Andes), Central (high altitude and narrow valleys), and the Altiplano (yellow or dry Andes) are the eco-regions of the Andean region (PISA, 1993; ILRI, 1997; CONDESAN, 1997).
3 The classification is based in rainfall, altitude and temperature among other bio-economic and social factors. The subregions include Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia, and Southern of Colombia is considered. The eco-regional research approach in the Andean region is shown in Figure 2. The right side of the figure shows the phases of the farming system research. The central section shows the systems analysis approach, whose goal is to generate, adapt or use knowledge to improve a particular system through adequate technological alternatives. These are generated by identifying the comparative advantages and market opportunities in the eco-region. The research pays particular attention to improving or maintaining the natural resource base. Figure 2. Eco-regional research approach in the Andean region integrating system analysis within farming system research P o l i c y Rural factors Andean Region Description analysis Alternatives Experimentation Validation Use & Adoption Eco- region Systems Farm Components GIS/RS Selection /area-farmers Characterization Case studies On farm experimentation On farm validation System analysis Alternatives/commodity Diffusion and adoption Information Experimental station The experimental work is conducted on farm or in a research station. The concept of on farm research needs to be clarified. It can be done with direct or indirect farmers participation. It will depend on the required scientific rigor and on how advanced the technology alternative is. Usually, this issue becomes a discussion between experimentation and validation, which should be solved by the common sense of researchers and extension agents. The dot line in Figure 2 indicates the diffusion phase, which is the responsibility of the national institutions. Duplication of efforts should be avoided. However, It is necessary to establish strong linkages between research institutes and extension agents to obtain impacts. In the Andean region the impact is measured as the number of NARS that are delivering a technological alternative generated under the eco-regional research approach. Bio-economic and social information to define an eco-region For a clear definition of an eco-region, it is necessary to define first the region (e.g. Andean). Then the research work should be oriented to define work sites (benchmark sites). A benchmark site is a work site representative of the eco-region. However, It is necessary to recognize that there would be a different social-economic dynamic. The benchmark site allows defining research activities toward development. During the study is necessary a clear definition of the hierarchical level. On each case, interaction of macro and micro economy need to be considered. The activities at farm level within the eco-region responds to round table consultations and activities at eco-regional level within a region respond to policy research. The main factors, parameters and variables considered in a characterization are:
4 Biophysical factors Soil, topography and slope; type of soils and erosion rate. Water sources, quantity (m 3 /s); seasonally; quality expressed in sediments residues and salinity. Use in agriculture and population. Vegetation. Use of NDVI (Normalized difference vegetation index); pasture, crops and forestry. Weather. Temperature (maximum and minimum); rainfall variability; radiation; hours of light; wind velocity. Agricultural production: crops, livestock, others. On each case quantity and quality. Social factors Index of human development (income, education, and expectance life) (PNUD, 1991). Economic factors National gross product; per-capita income. Price of local products at farm and market level. Price of imported products. Access to market: distance and quality of infrastructure (access roads). Estimation de primary transformation of the agricultural products (e.g. cheese, flour etc.) Institutional factors Presence of institutions and human resources. Table 1 summarize the main parameters and indicators considered in most crop-livestock production system. In the Andean region, a combination of crops, livestock and forestry is found. However, forestry as well as native grasslands should be intervened to avoid or control the rate of natural resource degradation.
5 Table 1. Main parameters and indicators considered in the analysis of a crop-livestock production systems. 1 Parameter/ Sub-system components 1 components Crop Rangelands Forest Soil properties Organic carbon content Nutrient content Cation exchange capacity Erosion rate Salinity Organic carbon content Nutrients content Nutrients contents Water quality and quantity Biological diversity Production of goods and services Energy and nutrient flow Landscape, composition and patterns Atmospheric composition Climate Salinity Seasonality Pollutant concentrations Species richness and diversity of indicator groups Population size of keystone species Crop diversity Soil and pest organism diversity Crop productivity (output/input) Crop genetic reserves Parent rock nutrient mobilization Nutrient (fertilizer) input fluxes Energy efficiency and quality Field size and mix Land use conversion rate Acid precipitation UV-B irradiation Troposphere ozone concentration Carbon dioxide concentration Temperature mean and variability Precipitation mean and Precipitation patterns Pollutant concentrations Species richness and diversity of indicator groups Population size of keystone species Forages diversity Stocking density Forage productivity Nutrient mobilization Grazing gradients Land use conversion rate Acid precipitation UV-B irradiation Troposphere ozone concentration Temperature mean and variability Precipitation mean and variability Seasonality Evapotranspiration fluxes Pollutant concentrations Base flow Species richness and diversity of indicator groups Population size of keystone species Forages diversity Wood and non-timber product yield Primary productivity Nutrient mobilization Spatial variation of vegetation types Land use conversion rate Acid precipitation UV-B irradiation Troposphere ozone concentration Carbon dioxide concentration Temperature mean and variability Precipitation mean and variability variability 1 Do not include wildlife/ wild-lands; freshwater fisheries; wetlands/groundwater; coastal resources and marine fisheries (Adapted from Munasinghe and McNeally, 1995) Working in an eco-region Work in an eco-region requires biophysical, economic, social and institutional information. Table 2 shows the biophysical factor with the parameters and variables needed to define and classified areas of intervention. The biophysical indicators determine three types of zones: 1. Degradable 2. Vulnerable, and 3. Zones with potential of intensification or diversification. Interaction of socio-economic and biophysical indicators with the institutional capacity result in a biophysical and socioeconomic characterization. Usually the eco-regional research is on the two first categories. Consequently, in type one, a work in soil conservation and forestry should be planned. Usually categories 2 and 3 overlap, allowing a better development of an eco-regional research. However, in some cases, these categories also have areas with category one, and
6 research becomes a challenge; especially for short duration research projects. Consequently, links with policy research should be incorporated, or at least recommendations must be addressed. Table 2. Information required for biophysical characterization of an eco-region Type of information Variable Frequency Unit Format Process Soil Secondary information Types of soils 1 Digital map Make map Slope 1 Digital map Local classification Type of soils 1 Digital map Make map Vegetation Secondary information Covered vegetation 1 Digital map Aerial photography Covered vegetation 1 Photo/Digital Make map Satellite image Covered vegetation 1 Dep.res 1 Digital map Make map Water Secondary information Sources of water 1 Digital map Caudal river By season m 3 /s Chart/Digital Sediments/residues By season µ Chart/Digital Salinity By season Chart/Digital Weather Secondary & primary information Use of water By season Chart/Digital Temperature (max/min). Daily ºC Chart/Digital Probabilities & Precipitation Daily mm Chart/Digital Annual pattern Radiation/hours light Daily J Chart/Digital Annual pattern Wind Daily m/s Chart/Digital Agricultural production Secondary information Crop production Annual t/ha Chart/Digital Link-map Livestock production Annual t/ha Chart/Digital Link-map Forestry 5 years Dep.res 1 Chart/digital Link-map 1 Depends of resolution. Figure 3 shows in schematic form the institutions, methods and efforts for rural development from the lower (farm) to highest hierarchical level (eco-region or region). Many projects tend to change a farm situation, but not the eco-region. Note that the efforts face a point where we need a round table with decision-makers (political level). In these cases model simulations (use of scenarios) and policy research are necessary. Table 4 describes the phases of the eco-regional research based in system analysis.
7 Potential production Government Enterprise Cooperatives Institutions Competitive advantage Region Policy Generality Methods Policy research Regional Government Local groups NGO s Eco-region Round Tables Macro-economy GIS & RS Figure 3. Schematic representation of the rural development based on the eco-regional research Table 4. Methods and procedures utilized in the eco-regional research in the Andean region based in the farming system analysis. 4 Phase Methods Observations/procedures Characterization Analysis On farm/station Experimentation and validation Farmers Researchers Actual production Secondary information Static and dynamic surveys Rapid rural appraisal GIS & Remote sensing Principal components & cluster analysis Linear and non linear mathematical models Simulation models Econometric models Cost-benefit analysis Experimental design (classic) Composite central design Trials farmer vs alternative Farm / site Food & Economic security Simulation/models Micro-economy Basic & applied Research Precision Statistic/compilation; charts, figures. Farmer participation; depend the dynamic of the variables Farmer participation Satellite images; ground throuting; maps Definition of farmer strata & target population Trends; sustainability (logistic, linear and non-linear models) Comparison of scenarios (current and potential); risk analysis Economic response; linear programming, multiple goal programming. Profitability; risk analysis Cause-effect response Response surface; scenarios Validation on farm/linking adoption Diffusion/farmers Researchers and Extension agents Fields days; short courses Publication; manuals Seminars; workshops Communication media Farmers participation/linking adoption Description of technological alternatives Researchers and extension agents Radio; television (tapes-short and case studies) 4 Methods and procedures are discusses elsewhere (Leon-Velarde, Quiroz, 1994; Montgomery, 1984; Anderson and Dillon, 1992).
8 Analysis of scenarios and site selection The quantitative information plays an important role in the selection of a site. However, external influences can be out of scope from the point of view of researchers; therefore a balance between research and development is required. The use of bio-mathematical models (e.g. linear programming, multiple goal programming, linear and non-linear models; table 3) or computer model simulation (ALES 5, DSSAT 6, EPIC 7 others 8 ) help to analyze current and potential scenarios. Results from the actual and potential scenarios give the possibility to obtain a change and impact in a particular selected site or a technological alternative (Pandey,1995; Quiroz, et al., 1998). One important tool is the response surface (Montgomery, 1984). This tool can be used from results of factorial or simulation models constructed to evaluate the effect of several factors as representation of actual system keeping track of the behavior of the system in time. As an example, figure 4 shows a response surface of the dynamic of herds in the Andean region. Herds with less than five cows have more possibilities of an intensification process. Herds with 2 to 5 cows with management effects from 50-60% indicate a status quo of the animal production in the Andean region. Herds with more that five cows have more possibilities of an intensification considering an adequate level of management (>60%), and farm size with market orientation. Similar example is described in alpacas (Leon-Velarde and Quiroz, 1994), as well as in dairy production (Leon-Velarde, Muñoz, et al., 1994) Animal units Herd size (cows) Management effects, % 90 Figure 4. Dynamic of the herd size in relation to herd management effects (calving rate, mortality, age at first service) in the Andean region. Response surface simulated over ten years. 5 Automated Land use evaluation, ALES (1994). 6 The Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer,DSSAT.(Bowen, 1993; Tsuji, 1994) 7 Evaluation productivity impact calculator, EPIC 8 Simulation models; Leon-Velarde and Quiroz (1994); Leon-Velarde, 1997; Arce (1994), Quiroz, (1995).
9 Linking eco-regional research with sustainability and adoption of technological alternatives The goal of the eco-regional approach dictates the methodology and the tools that we can use. Case studies aim at the exploration of possibilities from studies that investigate what is expected in the near future. In many of these studies, a time horizon is needed. Trends based on the secondary information give possibilities and expectations for the near future. Different models (linear regression, logistic curve among others) can be applied to observe the rate of improvement over time. In our case, we are measuring sustainability as the increased rate of a particular parameter within a factor (biological, economic or social). Searching for a composite index to measure sustainability is a challenge. Consequently our approach is to use the income (gross or net) over years. Simulation models that include several factors can help to measure farm or ecoregion sustainability. At the same time, it allows to observe the effect of a particular factor (e.g. soil or pasture sustainability etc.). 6 Altiplano). The logistic curve used shows three phases: the initial sustainability, the technical increment, and the bio-economic sustainability (Leon-Velarde, 1992, Quiroz et al.1998). Similar pattern with milk production and herd productivity, comparing estimated and real data, was demonstrate in Guyana (Leon-Velarde, Muñoz, et al., 1994). In a similar way, the alternatives generated for a production system in the eco-region need to be incorporated into farms through an adoption process. During this process, the main constraint is capital; consequently, the degree of adoption need to be measured. The adoption curve Y= b 0 e b1t /(1-b 0 (1- e b1t ) contributes to measure or estimate the adoption process. Figure 6 shows the numbers of farmers adopting a particular alternative to produce seed potato in rustic greenhouses. The project reached the target during the project development; however, the time required for a total population is close to ten years. The question is who will be in charge after the project finalization. This calls strengthening the links with national institutions. 5 Gross Income $ (Thousands) Year Figure 5. Simulated gross income accrued by Alpaca farmers in time, by adopting new pasture management and herd techniques (based on 80 ha farm size in the Altiplano). Y= b 0 /(1+b 1 e -b2t) ); b 0 =3,891.2, b 1 =22.2, and b 2 =0.57. Figure 5 shows the scenario income accrued by alpaca farmers in time, by adopting new pasture management and herd techniques (based on 80 ha farm size in the 14 Producers (Percentage) Project action on farms Project action on total farms TIME (years) Figure 6. Impact of adoption of potato seed production in rustic greenhouses. SEIMPA, project, Puno
10 Andean eco-region research: conceptual and operational scheme. Eco-regional research in the Andean region is based on the conceptual framework described above. The activities are set up distinguishing the environment, the biophysical, economic and social aspects within administrative boundaries; examples are countries and watershed. The region is divided in three sub regions, North Andes (green Andes), Central Andes (high altitude and narrow valleys zone), and South Andes (Altiplano). The first sub-region includes Colombia, Ecuador and Northern Peru. The second sub-region is Central Peru and the third one is the Altiplano between Peru and Bolivia. Each of these sub-regions constitutes an eco-region on which a specific work site has been defined. The coordination is done with different institutions. It was identified that in each site should be present a research or education institution (national research institutions or university) linked with an extension institute (e.g. NGO s). Table 4 summarizes the sites within ecoregions. Each site presents special characteristics, however the problems have the same direction, but the magnitude is different. Consequently, on each site within an eco-region, the priorities change in relation to market opportunities. In some case subsistence is important, and the surplus production is to market. In other sites, intensification of crop-livestock systems with clear market orientation is the priority. Table 5 shows the orientation and focus of research planned in the Andean region, based on the conceptual framework (Figure 7). All the work is being done in horizontal collaboration with different projects. Among them are the projects funded by the Spanish Agency of International Cooperation (AECI), the International Development Research Center, IDRC, the International Potato Center, CIP (Project 14) and the Consortium for the Sustainable Development of the Andean Eco-region, CONDESAN. The mail goal is to improve family income through a sustainable land use based in croplivestock systems. The gray shaded areas represent the work components, while the non-shaded areas are the operational research carried out with the national institutions on different degrees of collaboration. Table 6 shows the links of each participating institution with the operational research (Figure 7). Table 5. Livestock eco-regional research in the Andean region; research and constraints. Focus of research Constraints Credit studies with technical assistance Pasture management; research activities / nutrient cycling Non traditional animal feeding; use of Andean products Minimization of climatic risk Integration of crop-livestock activities with market orientation Health & diseases Capital & Technology Forage availability Lack of demand Altitude & conform zone Products & transformation Management effects
11 Table 6. Livestock eco-regional research in Latin America within the Andean region; countries, agro-ecological sites and partners. Country Site/eco-region Characteristics Institution Type Colombia La Miel Hillsides &inter- Andean valleys Ecuador Peru El Carchi Chimborazo Cajamarca oo a Junin Inter-Andean n valleys Inter- andean valleys Rainfed grasslands Inter-andean valleys high Caldas University IGALA Foundation INIAP ESPOCH Cajamarca University ASPADERU C Agrarian University SAIS Tupac Amaru Mañazo altitude. Altiplano /wet-dry CIRNMA Puno University Bolivia Aroma Altiplano /dry ASPROLP ASan Simon University R=research; T=teaching;C=credit;E=extension. R & T ONG/C-E R & E E R & T ONG/E-C R & T Coop. ONG/E R & T Coop. R & T POLITICAL DECISIONS Land Use FARMER DECISIONS CROPS N-fixation GRASSLANDS ANNUAL FORAGES Grazing ANIMALS MANURE CROPS RESIDUES FORAGE RESIDUES FERTILIZATION Organic; inorganic SOIL Nutrients: Available Stable Losses through Denitrification Drainage, others CROP PRODUCTION grains, tubers roots, others ANIMAL PRODUCTION meat, milk, wool fiber,, manure, others INCOME NUTRITION Figure 7 Scheme of the conceptual framework of the eco-regional research in the Andean region. MARKET
12 Studies, results and perspectives The livestock eco-regional research in the Andean region is just starting. However, results mentioned are based on previous work in collaboration with the above mentioned projects. Table 7 summarizes the most important results achieved. Table 7.Studies and main results of the livestock eco-regional research in the Andean region. Component Procedure/research Observations/comments Forage availability Use of aquatic forage Risk minimization Annual and perennial Use of native pasture Herd management Shelter and pre-dried of llachu &totora Shelter and forage base / calf Combination of barley, winter wheat, oats with alfalfa Increase of grazing area (bofedales) Alpaca herd Cow herd management Gain weight kg/day; 142 % Gain weight 72 % on calves Improve forage base; 38-76% D.M Improve stoking rate and production. Improve fiber characteristic by using index selection; 16-22% Use of records/milk production and reproduction Dual purpose and dairy; scenarios Model simulation Bio-economic analysis Risk analysis Model to compare alternatives Credit studies Revolving funds/credit Improve forage base and herd Family income Integration of portfolio of technological alternatives US$ 1,980; % Potato,2.8 kg/m 2 ; commercial greenhouses/vegetables Soil/land use Nutrient cycling studies Forage-manure; 12-26% Perspectives The perspectives considered in the eco-regional research can be summarize in: Integration of crop-livestock activities; subsistence and commercial; promotion of micro-enterprise. Improve livestock products; establishing micro-enterprises with orientation to aggregate value through product transformation. Linkage of partners in a horizontal collaboration; a research network of livestock research is being promoted. Training of researchers, students, agents of extension and farmers are considered in a training component. Publications; manuals and papers.
13 References Anderson, J. R., and Dillon, J. L Risk analysis in dryland farming systems. Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, FAO. Farm Systems Management Series N p. Bowen, W., Jones, J.W. and Thornton, P Crop simulation as a potential tool for evaluating sustainable land management. In Proceedings of the eight international soil management workshop: utilization for sustainable land use. Oregon, California and Nevada. Edited by Kimble,J.M. Soil Conservation Service USDA pp. Cañas, R. and Lavados, J Tecnología, Gestión y Desarrollo: Aspectos Básicos Generales. Series manuales I&D. CINDA Chile. 65 p Consortium for the Sustainable Development of the Andean Ecoregion and Natural Resource and Enviroment Research Center Facing the Altiplano s challenge; a perspective of the Altiplano and andean inhabitant. CONDESAN-CIRNMA/CIP. Puno, Peru. 30p. Dent, J.B Potential for systems simulation in farming systems. In: Penning de Vries, F., Teng, P., and Metselaar, K. (eds.) Systems Approaches For Sustainable Agricultural Development. Kluwer Academic Publishers and International Rice Research Institute. P International Livestock Research Institute ILRI in Latin America. in ILRI; Livestock people and the environment Addis Ababa, Ethiopia p. León-Velarde, C. and Quiroz, R Análisis de Sistemas Agropecuarios: Uso de Métodos Biomatemáticos (. CIRNMA, La Paz, Bolivia. 240 p. Leon-Velarde C.U, Arce, B., y Quiroz, R Modelación de sistemas de produccion de Leche; descripcion de sus componentes e interacciones para el diseño de modelos de simulación. In Conceptos y metodologías de investigación en fincas con sistemas de producción Animal de doble propósito. Cali, Colombia. Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical, CIAT. Consorcio Tropileche pp. León Velarde, C.U., Muñoz, H., Peter Davis, Arce, Blanca Measuring bio-economic sustainability: Use of simulation and case study in Latin America. In Symposium international 'Researches-Systeme en Agriculture et Development Rural. Montpellier, France; November Montgomery, D.C Design and Analysis of Experiments. 2 nd Edition. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 538 p. Munasinghe, M. and McNeely, J Key concepts and terminology of sustainable development. In Defining and measuring sustainability; the biogeophysical foundations. Edited by Mohan Munasnghe and Walter Shearer. World Bank p. Pandey, S., and Hardaker, B The role of modeling in the quest for sustainable farming systems. Agricultural systems 47: PISA Informe Final de Proyecto. Puno Peru. 417 p.
14 Quiroz, R. A., Estrada, R.D., Leon-Velarde, C. and Zandstra, H Facing the challenge of the Andean zone: The role of modeling in developing sustainable management of natural resources. In: Eco-Regional Approaches to Develop Sustainable Land use and Food Production.Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands, p Quiroz, R.A., León-Velarde, C., and Bowen, W Farming Systems Research from a modeling perspective: experiences in Latin America. In FAO (in press). Rabbinge, R. Eco-regional approaches, why, what and how. In J. Bouma et al.(editors) Eco-regional approaches for sustainable land use and food production. Kluwer Academic Publishers & International Potato Center p. Rossiter, D.G. and Van Wambeke, A.R Automated land evaluation, ALES Version 4.1. User s manual. Cornell University. Ithaca. NY USA. 185 p. Thornton, P Application of crop simulation models in agricultural research and development the tropics and subtropics. International Fertilizer Development Center. Papers series P p. Thornton, P Ecoregional research at ILRI; background document for a workshop in ecoregional research at ILRI. Addis Ababa, 5-8 October. Ethiopia. Tsuji, G.Y., Uehara, G., and Balas, S. (eds.) The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) version 3. University of Hawaii, Hawaii, USA.
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text:
Off the field, Walter was known for endless pranks, a great love of people, and a great personal generosity toward people in need, especially abused and neglected children.
Based on his own autobiographies and numerous recollections from teammates and friends, this book follows Walter's life, from a happy, constantly active childhood in Mississippi in the 1950s and 1960s, through high school, college, and professional stardom, to his untimely death in 1999 at the age of 45. It explains Walter's motivation in terms of a supportive family and rivalry with a much admired older brother.
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19" Magic Touch LCD Monitor Add On Touch Screen Magic touch can be easily installed and removed. No need to open up the monitor or computer case., No external power supply is needed either. It can be used in any country with voltage from 100 to 240. Magic touch can be activated on touch by almost anything - finger, fingernail, gloved hand...
Features: Using NEC Monitor Model LCD195WXM-BK Slim footprint increases desktop space Touch or protective glass integration Specifications: Size 19 inch Diagonal Type Active Matrix LCD Display Touch Technology 5-Wire Resistive or Capacitive Brightness (typical) 250 cd/m2 Contents of Packaging User's manual, Power cord, Setup Sheet,...
Two Partner/Plus single-message augmentative communication devices with divider that interlocks between the two. You can interlock with other Partner/Plus's to create a larger multi-message communicator. Start as a double message communicator and add on as skills are acquired. An elevated platform and slot for objects or picture cards makes the ...

subset: commoncrawl


text: Elikal 10 Report post Posted June 10, 2016 Oh boy. Religion. Always opening a can of worms, lol. But as Otherkin, I guess we all have our very different ways anyway, so I guess we can talk more relaxed. :) By itself I would not talk so much about the topic religion and me. But, since I feel my being Kin in contrast to how humans tic, I think it is a lesson for me, or so I think. So bear with me. Older people do make tales longer, haha. Picture it. Berlin. 1987.... XD (Hint: Golden Girls referrence. ^^) I have always been a very... devout person. I naturally sought religion and spirituality, despite my parents not being religous at all. Nor anyone in my environment; on the contrary, Germany is a very secular society with strong atheism. (Or shall we say, it WAS before so many Muslims now make public prayers, but that would really be another story.) Early as a kid I felt very Christian. I only read the New Testament, because I vividly denied the God of the Old Testament. It was when was 14, that I began to read philosophers. Confucius, Nietzsche and Schopenhauer, and from there on I was lost to Christianity. Also my life changed, much bad stuff happened, and the idea of a loving God became something I simply could not believe in any form. By chance I met Asatru people and Thelemites, and became both. In Asatru the wild nature of it attracted me. Asatru has cool Gods and a vibe or energy that spoke to me. I was out in the woods again, as in the years of being a Boy Scout, and I loved that. Becoming Thelemite Ritual Mage, was a sort of extension. No. Rather a balancing? Hard to say, I always was very multi-interested. The basic ideas of Thelema feel right to me. That everyone has a True Will or True Self or True Inner Identity or as ever you want to call it sound right to me to this day, and that we entered a New Eon is also something I believe in. For me, the character of this New Eon, is that everyone becomes his own Priest, and we abolish the old idea of Priesthood as authority. That is how I define how religion in this New Eon has to be, so that each one can develop by himself, and grow by himself. But, as it goes, as I grew older, I didn't feel the call of nature that much, I became more a modern city person, and my Asatru friends remained to be that wild forest loving folks, and finally I understood the rift was getting to great, so I left Asatru behind. I still raise a beer once and then for Odin and Thor, sending them my love and yell VALHALLA. But overall it fell behind me, so to speak. For many years I was in religious limbo. I experimented with Shamanic stuff, my Ritual Magick system led to me to learn about my Otherkin history, and that kept me busy for many years. Still, about 2 years I felt I wanted to have an Exoteric Religion, partially to ground me in rituals and festival days over the year, and partially because I felt alone and wanted to connect to people. By accident so I stumbled over Roman Paganism, the Religion of Pagan Rome. Now that is a really small circle. But I always was fascinated with Rome, and so I learned and based on what I learned I wrote rituals for the Roman festivals. Now mind you, I should interlude I never was a Wicca. The simple reason is, I have almost no connection to female dieties. So while I respect Wicca and like how they design their Rituals and how they organize themselves as a network, it is an energy I can not tap into; it would be a lie. I can nof fathom or connect to the idea of a "Great Goddess". But back to Rome. So, after a while of just talking with individuals, and after writing a whole lot for myself, I began to join an actual group and publish my ritual suggestions. And OH BOY that was when all hell broke lose. You see, I know how the Romans of old did their rituals. But for reasons too much to write here, I believed this could not be 100% redone. We dont have temples, we don't have a magistrate, but above all, in the New Eon *everyone* has to be his or her own Priest. I do not seek "frontal religion", where one dude speaks for an hour and the "laymen" have to listen like sheep. It's ok when people want that, but it wasn't what I thought Religion in the New Age should be like. I want religious ceremonies to be vivid, to have stuff to DO, not just stuff to TALK. And Old Religion was often like that: lotsa talking. So I did what I felt was mild changes, some small additions here and there, nothing much. But oh boy... "that was not how the Romans did it 2000 years ago". "Calling the Four Winds is SO Wicca". And whatnot. They had actually named themselves Senators (despite being maybe a handful of people scattered all over the globe, but humans love their titles), and made "laws" about all this. "We have laws and rules, and if you want the ritual formality changed, you need to appeal to a Senator and then the next session will debate on it and may make a new law, but your chances are zero anyway, because we make everything like they did it 2000 years ago, so STFU noob." More or less. And yes, the tone was quite... authotarian. We are the Priests and Cardinals, we don't change stuff. Now when I was Asatru priest, for a good time, I always allowed other people to have stuff, they wanted to see incorporated. One wanted a part for his Celtic Goddess, I forgot which. So we intrgrated that for him. Everyone could suggest something. I didnt act as authority figure, but merely as coordinator and "expert" when people where not sure how to do stuff. And I enjoyed that my group always developed things, that everyone could add and participate in forming the ceremonies. That is something entirely alien to me: this strong desire to have titles and offices, rules and regulation, bureaucracies. I was in MANY groups. Sometimes leading, sometimes being led. And this love for hierarchies and titles, rules and regulations is something I SO came to connect with what makes humans tick, and what at least my two Kin, Ardala and Dragons, don't. Both races are highly individualistic and respectful to the individual way. Proud to do things the own way. Humans... they want to "fit in". Maybe for some other Otherkin it is different? Maybe a more pack oriented Wolf-Kin would get along better with humans? I don't know, but would like to learn how you see that shtick of humans for hierarchies, titels and rules. I didn't even change the rituals all over, just small reforms, to make them more appealing, more different. The traditional festivals of Rome just were most all the same. One dude talks, cattle is burned, people go home. Quite boring eh? Or talking about sacrifice. They said, a true altar is, where sacrifice is burned, if you dont do that, you are doing it wrong. I deny that. I can not assume Gods desire stuff to be burned or stick to rules like that. That is a weird image of Gods. I wrote a lengthy article, how I thought what the TRUE meaning of "sacrifice" was: Love. The loving attention to the Gods. To speak to them, express your respect and loyality. To give your heart and your thoughts. THAT is what I felt the only true offering to Gods can and should be, not burning a cow or such absurdities. I wrote, the people of the past had simpler, less developed ideas of religion and we need to develop them further. I find the ideas to sacrifice to Gods like you bribe an official or paying protection money like to a Mafia Boss a hilarious concept of religion. I mean, seriously, who would WANT such Gods? I can not imagine Gods are like that. I see God as source of abudance. They dont need to be given stuff. They desire our love, our reverence. Maybe a gesture, like putting flowers on the altar, or a ritual gesture of sorts, as SYMBOL for the love and dedication, but ultimately I think Gods seek love and respect from us, not "gifts and bribes". But it seems... for humans the world works that way. Like Capitalism does. All is just a trade, a bribe, something you buy. So they buy favours from their Gods as well. They have offices and titles and rules, and you are not allowed to have your own version inside the group. Oh no. Where would we come, if we allowed that? To chaos and anarchy! *sarcasm off* Seriously. I am so tired of this "fit in" mentality. "The nail that stands out, is hammered in". A Japanese proverb, but so telling of all my experience with humans. And there is that. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites


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AGOF coverage currency
The focus of the online coverage currency used in the AGOF internet facts study lies in the definition for coverage of an advertising medium as applicable in media and advertising research. It is defined as a proportion (percentage) of the population or another target group – be it individuals or households – who are or have been exposed to an advertising medium at a certain time or during a certain period of time.
The internet facts study has established the performance value Unique User. In order for the internet facts study to establish itself as a currency in the market and to be widely accepted today, it has to meet a number of requirements. From a media planning perspective, it must provide structure and reach data for a large part of relevant websites and their booking units. In addition, it must be "countable" within media planning tools so as to provide appropriate support in the creation of media plans.
From a methodological point of view, certain quality criteria of empirical social research such as validity, reliability and representativeness of the results must be met. And for electronic media such as the Internet, adequate technical metrics were introduced as another important part of the method to meet the requirements of a fragmented use. Thus, the methodological basis of the internet facts is a three-pillar model to measure the usage (baseline survey), complemented by on-site surveys and population-representative telephone surveys.
The three basic modules have the following functions:
A purely technical measuring system enabling a comprehensive survey of all contacts with online advertising media offers in Germany taking part in the study also includes the collection of learned values such as visits or page impressions based on each individual browser and its Internet usage. Such browsers are referred to as Unique Clients.
While in technical measuring systems the basic population is referred to as Unique Clients, an on-site survey helps to generate information on the users behind the browsers. The basic population includes Internet users from the age of 10 years. In an on-site survey, the focus is on information on descriptive socio-demographic values as well as information on the end device and various browsers. The Unique User currency is based on the basic population in Germany from the age of 10 years.
With the aid of representative telephone surveys, the relationship between Internet users and the population as a whole is established: here, basic data on Internet use are collected to establish the relationship between Internet users and the population as a whole.
The combination of all three pillars allows for a reliable and detailed analysis of reach and structure data of online media offerings. For this purpose, the three pillars come together in an innovative procedure. The most important innovation in the market that was introduced with the internet facts is the conversion of Unique Clients into Unique Users, i.e. the users behind the computer screens. Unique Clients are not transferable to individuals one to one, although single users (the individual uses only one end device and one browser all by him- or herself, thus making a Unique Client a Unique User) make up for a large part of Internet users. However, there are also computers or browsers that are operated by various users, so-called Multi Users. And then there are clients that only make up part of the total Internet use of one individual, since he or she uses different computers – at home or at work, for instance – and/or different browsers to go online, so-called Multi Client Users. The definition of Multi Client Users was adapted in 2010 according to the changed reality of use: since the publication of the internet facts 2010-I, a Multi Client User is someone who uses the Internet from more than one location and/or uses more than one browser per computer to go online (creation of a Multi Client User by combining up to four clients, i.e. computers or browsers). The proportion of Multi Client Users in the internet facts study has thus increased from previously 37 per cent to approx. 75 per cent. In order to convert Unique Clients to Unique Users you have to first determine Multi User, Multi Client and Single User profiles using the data from the first and second pillar.
In a second step, the data from the technical analyses (traffic statistics using the scalable central measuring method; SCM) need to be combined with additional data from the on-site survey. For that purpose, a combined dynamic profiling and modelling procedure for so-called dynamic micro-clusters is used for profiling to create ideal-typical user profiles from technical metrics and data collected in the online survey. According to the identity or similarity principle, the socio-demographic data of each ideal-typical user are then projected or forecasted to those users only providing their actual online behaviour based on technical metrics corresponding to one of the ideal-typical users.
By this means, missing socio-demographic data can be completed to generate a full user profile (modelling). The conversion from Unique Clients to Unique Users is now complete. To apply the existing information to German-speaking Internet users from the age of 10 years in Germany or to the total population, a representative telephone survey with a large sample size is carried out. The telephone survey serves to accomplish the followings tasks: first, to define and describe the total of German-speaking Internet users; second, to collect data of the non-Internet audience; and third, to collect descriptive information, which is required to create target groups. Apart from extensive socio-demographic data this also includes data on markets and the industry as well as information about the respondents' opinions. The countable data of the internet facts, i.e. the media planning file, is created by merging the technical data with the representative survey followed by further processing to use the data within the framework of the evaluation and planning tool TOP.
To this end, the following metrics are taken:
- Aggregation of codes and contacts per day to exactly match the months and weeks
- Adjustment of all contacts from data set II to the target of the IVW-certified technical metrics
- Storing of usage probabilities per user and booking unit
For the first time in the history of online and advertising media research, the innovative multi-method approach of the internet facts allows for user descriptive data for booking units. The booking unit is defined as a unit connected to certain advertising formats for one or more advertising media. Booking units can be complete online offers, parts of online offers or a combination of several online offers or parts thereof. Furthermore, by combining technical metrics and survey data and enabling flexible adjustments to dynamic changes in the online market, the three-pillar model of the internet facts meets all requirements of a market standard, which did not exist until the introduction of the internet facts.
With the publication of the AGOF internet facts 2005-II in autumn 2005, media data in the form of structure and reach data as well as market data of websites and booking units were made available for the first time. Together, they make up for a market media study representative of the online advertising market offering a hitherto unique differentiation. AGOF continues on this path of success: today, the internet facts are published on a monthly basis, including structure and reach data of more than 700 advertising media. All information on the latest study is available here.


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Nanauatzin is a deity of both Aztec mythology (in Mexico) and Pipil mythology (in El Salvador).
Aztec tradition
In Aztec mythology, the god Nanahuatl (or Nanauatzin, the suffix -tzin implies respect or familiarity), the most humble of the gods, sacrificed himself in fire so that he would continue to shine on Earth as the sun, thus becoming the sun god. Nanahuatl means "full of sores." In the Codex Borgia, Nanahuatl is represented as a man emerging from a fire. This was originally interpreted as an illustration of cannibalism.
The Aztecs had various myths about the creation, and Nanahuatl participates in several. In the legend of Quetzalcoatl, Nanauatl helps Quetzalcoatl to obtain the first grains which will be the food of humankind. In Aztec mythology, the universe is not permanent or everlasting, but subject to death like any living creature. However, even as it dies, the universe is reborn again into a new age, or "Sun." Nanauatl is best known from the "Legend of the Fifth Sun" as related by Sahagun.
In this legend, which is the basis for most Nanahuatl myths, there had been four creations. In each one, one god has taken on the task of serving as the sun: Tezcatlipoca, Quetzalcoatl, Tlaloc, and Chalchiuhtlicue. Each age ended because the gods were not satisfied with the human beings that they had created. Finally, Quetzalcoatl retrieves the sacred bones of their ancestors, mixes them with corn and his own blood, and manages to make acceptable human beings. However, no other god wants the task of being the sun.
The gods decide that the fifth, and possibly last, sun must offer up his life as a sacrifice in fire. Two gods are chosen: Tecciztecatl and Nanauatl. The former is chosen to serve as the sun because he is wealthy and strong, while the latter will serve as the moon because he is poor and ill. Tecciztecatl, who is proud, sees his impending sacrifice and transformation as an opportunity to gain immortality. The humble Nanauatl accepts because he sees it as his duty.
During the days before the sacrifice, both gods undergo purification. Tecciztecatl makes offerings of rich gifts and coral. Nanauatl offers his blood and performs acts of penance.
The gods prepare a large bonfire that burns for four days, and construct a platform high above it from which the two chosen gods must leap into the flames. On the appointed day, Tecciztecatl and Nanauatl seat themselves upon the platform, awaiting the moment of sacrifice. The gods call upon Tecciztecatl to immolate himself first. After four attempts to throw himself onto the pyre, which is giving off extremely strong heat by this time, his courage fails him and he desists. Disgusted at Tecciztecatl's cowardice, the gods call upon Nanauatl, who rises from his seat and steps calmly to the edge of the platform. Closing his eyes, he leaps from the edge, landing in the very center of the fire. His pride wounded upon seeing that Nanauatl had the courage that he lacked, Tecciztecatl jumps upon the burning pyre after him.
Nothing happens at first, but eventually two suns appear in the sky. One of the gods, angry over Tecciztecatl's lack of courage, takes a rabbit and throws it in Tecciztecatl's face, causing him to lose his brilliance. Tecciztecatl thus becomes the moon, which bears the impression of a rabbit to this very day.
Yet the sun remains unmoving in the sky, parching and burning all the ground beneath. Finally the gods realize that they, too, must allow themselves to be sacrificed so that human beings may live. They present themselves to the god Ehecatl, who offers them up one by one. Then, with the powerful wind that arises as a result of their sacrifice, Ehecatl makes the sun move through the sky, nourishing the earth rather than scorching it.
The fifth sun is identified with Tonatiuh.
Pipil tradition
Nana-huatzin was the youngest of three boys and a girl named "Xochit Sihuat" who had emerged from the fruit of the gourd-tree (Crescentia cujete), which in turn had grown from the head of a woman that had flown into the night while her body slept. (The head attached itself to a startled deer, and the deer leapt into a canyon, there planting the head in the ground.) Nana-huatzin and his siblings were raised by Tantepus Lamat ("Iron-Toothed Old Woman") until she gave to her lover some food they had obtained. The siblings proceeded to butcher that lover and, calling it venison, fed his body to the old woman, then killed her. The siblings found the world's supply of maize was, as of yet, concealed within a mountain, known only to a bird feeding on that stock. Where his siblings had failed, Nana-huatzin succeeded in opening the mountain, but in doing so, was himself trapped within.[1]
The theme of a tree growing from the head of a goddess, and of a god emerging from that tree, also appears in the Codex Vindobonensis.[2]
- ↑ ANCIENT AMERICA, 9 = Ruud van Akkeren : Tzuywa : Place of the Gourd. Boundary End Archaeology Research Center, Barnardsville (NC), 2006. ISSN : 1531-2097. p. 50
- ↑ Diane E. Wirth : Parallels : Mesoamerican and Ancient Middle Eastern Traditions. Stonecliff Publishing, St. George (UT), 2003. p. 145 -- citing :- Jill Leslie Furst : Codex Vindobonensis Mexicanus 1 : a Commentary. Albany : Institute for Mesoamerican Studies, State University of New York, 1978. p. 134
|This page uses content from the English Wikipedia. The original article was at Nanauatzin. The list of authors can be seen in the page history.


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Old Camera Plus Free - Guess My Age In You Spark Selfie Photo
December 13, 2015 19:00
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Ábel Sinkovics
Ábel Sinkovics is a software developer and has defended his PhD in January at Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary. His research is about C++ template metaprogramming, functional programming and domain-specific languages. He has been building libraries supporting domain-specific language embedding based on template metaprogramming and libraries supporting template metaprogrammers. He has also been working on tools supporting metaprogramming in C++.


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Where is the Nittany Lion statue?
The Nittany Lion statue was carved in 1941 by Heinz Warnecke for the Penn State Lion Shrine. It is located between the Recreation Building and Beaver Field at the University Park campus of Penn Sta...
Read More »
What happen to don Quixote and the lion?
When Don Quixote decides to attack a caged lion being brought to the king as a present, he has the driver of the cage cart open the cage, but the lion, although it had not been fed and was most lik...
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What do you call a baby lion?
A female lion will give birth to between one and five baby lions every two years. These baby lions are referred to as cubs, and will nurse from their mother for approximately six months.Source:Smit...
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What is the iCloud tab for in the new mountain lion iOS?
It will work when you update to iOS 6 next week.http://www.apple.com/ios/ios6/#safari
What is the meaning of the lion head statue?
The lion's head has been used for thousands of years in sculpture and architecture. Its specific meaning varies from culture to culture, yet there are consistencies in the overall symbolism represe...
Read More »


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This young adult loves to sing and talk back to you. Includes CAGE, MANY TOYS, LOTS OF TREATS, FOOD. PERCHES A bit shy and may need some tlc to become…$250 CAD
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Say #Hello to an innovative new line of jeans designed not only to snuggly fit your phone in your back pocket but also to charge it!
Joe's Jeans developed the new line called #Hello Jeans which have a special opening above the back pocket for a battery pack to charge iPhones 5, 5s or 6 in another secret pocket alongside the charger opening.
Read More: This Company Is Fighting Gas With Flatulence Filtering Clothes
A USB cord sewn into the seam connects to the battery pack and can plug directly to the phone while it's in the pocket. Of course, neither the cord nor the battery pack is washing machine safe.
According to Joe's Jeans, we now can forget those bulky cases and carrying around chargers in your purse or car. Just slip your phone right into your pocket – where it probably spends most of its time anyway – and let it charge right against your derrière.
The battery pack has the capability to charge the iPhone 5 and 5s up to 85% and the iPhone 6 up to 70% so it can't completely replace a stationary charger, but it could be good for those on-the-go wanting to keep some juice in their phones.
Read More: iPhone Users Beware! Hackers Using Charging Cables To Steal User Info And Install Viruses
These new jeans don't come cheap, though, they are on sale for $189 with the battery pack and USB sold separately at an additional $49.
Other designers have also made smartphone friendly clothing including I/O Denim jeans which were designed with a cell phone pocket on the left leg between the knee and the hip and Nokia reportedly linked up with designer Adrien Sauvage last year to create pants fitted with a wireless charging plate.


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The Senzai District of Toshi Ranbo was the home of the higher culture of the city. [1] Most of the city's samurai lived in this district. [2] It was the newest district in Toshi Ranbo and did not exist at all prior to the city becoming the Imperial Capital. [3] The Okura Subdistrict was part of the Senzai District. [4]
Culture Edit
The district was rife with quiet, beautiful gardens, Noh theatres, estates of the city's highest ranking nobility and even the Imperial Museum. Wars of words were fought over anything from the levels of hospitality to quality of entertainment provided by hosts. An ikebana arrangement could be used as a metaphor for a clan's participation in any number of events in the Empire. [1]
Court Edit
The district's court was a small one, and concerned itself almost exclusively with matters that a war-trained bushi might consider frivolous. Matters of entertainment and culture, such as which clan's theatre troupe would perform in Toshi Ranbo next season, were decided here. [1]
Winter of Red Snow Edit
The district suffered extensive damage during the Winter of Red Snow, and Isawa Sezaru's death took place almost directly over the western part of the district. [5]
Notable Locations Edit
Known Governors Edit
|This Imperial Families related article is a stub. That means that it has been started, but is incomplete. You can help by adding to the information here.


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LE HALLOWEEN POSTCARD 1/50 RYTA VINTAGE STYLE FOLK ART PAINTING SKELETON 4x6 cat
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@TheRealLisaAnn Is Taking Over Our Twitter!
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