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BP Comment Quick Links
October 14, 2006
Future Shock
Where Did the Tigers and the Athletics Come From?
PECOTA compares each hitter against a database of roughly 20,000 major league batter seasons since World War II. In addition, it also draws upon a database of roughly 10,000 translated minor league seasons (1998-2005) for hitters who spent most of their previous season in the minor leagues. (When minor league comparables are used, they appear in ALL CAPS). PECOTA considers four broad categories of attributes in determining a hitters comparability:
1. Production metrics--in particular, batting average, isolated power, unintentional walk rate, strikeout rate, groundball:flyball ratio and a modified version of the Bill James speed score.
2. Usage metrics, including career length and plate appearances.
3. Phenotypic attributes, including handedness, height and weight.
4. Fielding Position. PECOTA doesnt require that a comparable hitter play the same defensive position; it is a factor that is evaluated along with many others, and assigned a relatively substantial weight. Consideration is also given to the similarity between two positions; for example, a shortstop will be compared to a second baseman before he is compared to a left fielder. (See additional discussion).
For Pitchers:
PECOTA compares each pitcher against a database of roughly 15,000 major league pitcher seasons since World War II, and 10,000 minor league pitcher seasons from 1998-2005. Pitchers are compared only against others of the same age. PECOTA considers three broad categories of attributes in determining comparability:
1. Production metrics such as strikeout rates, walk rates, isolated power and batting average against, and groundball:flyball ratio.
2. Usage metrics such as career length, total batters faced, and percentage of innings pitched in starting/relief.
3. Phenotypic attributes, including handedness, height, and weight. \n
In most cases, the database is large enough to provide a meaningfully large set of appropriate comparables. When it isnt, the program is designed to cheat by expanding its tolerance for dissimilar players until a reasonable sample size is reached. In the case of very old or very young players, there may not be a significant number of pitchers who appeared in the major leagues at all at that age, and so the results of their forecast may be unreliable. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_47 = 'See Percentile Forecast.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_48 = 'The Percentile Forecast is a representation of the players expected performance in the upcoming season at various levels of probability.\nFor example, if a pitchers 75th percentile EqERA forecast is 3.50, this indicates that he has a 75% chance to post an EqERA of 3.50 or higher, and a 25% chance to post an EqERA lower than 3.50. Higher percentiles indicate more favorable outcomes.\nThe Percentile Forecast is calibrated off two key statistics: EqR/27 (essentially the same as EqR) for hitters, and EqERA for pitchers.\nPECOTA runs a series of regressions within the set of comparable data in order to estimate how changes in peripheral statistics are related to changes in equivalent runs. For example, if it first estimates that Carl Crawford will produce 4.7 EqR/27 next year, it then tries to determine what home run total, walk total, and so on are most likely to be associated with a 4.7 EqR27/season.\nPECOTA then iterates this result to ensure that the peripheral statistics add up to the right calibrating statistic (EqR/27 or EqERA). It is important to note that the Percentile Forecast is designed to work around the calibrating statistic only. \n
A players forecast is adjusted to the park and league context associated with the team listed at the top of the forecast page. Team dependant stats like Wins, RBIs, and BABIP account for the projected performance level of a players teammates\nPECOTA forecasts playing time (plate appearances) in addition to a players rate statistics. These forecasts are based on a players previous record of performance, and the comparable player data, and do not incorporate any additional information about managerial decisions.\n'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_49 = 'Comparable Year represents the season analogous to the current projected year for a comparable player. For example, if Dick Allen is listed as a comparable, and the year listed next to his name is 1974, Allens 1974 is used as a component of the players forecast. It also indicates that Allens Baseline performance entering into the 1974 season was similar to the Baseline performance of the player in question.
PECOTA constructs a 182-day interval on either side of a players birthdate in order to match ages; this method is more precise than the Bill James similarity scores, which use a players age as of July 1. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_50 = 'Caught stealing. CS are not available for the NL from 1876-1950 (except for 1915, 1920-25, and some players for 1916), in the AL from 1901-19 (except 1914-15 and some 1916 players), and are not available at all for the AA, UA, PL, or FL. Surprisingly, they are available for the NA. In catchers fielding, not available prior to 1978.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_51 = 'Delta between actual wins and W1. Positive number means the team has won more games than expected from their statistics.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_52 = 'Delta between actual wins and W2. Positive number means the team has won more games than expected from their statistics.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_53 = 'Delta between actual wins and W3. Positive number means the team has won more games than expected from their statistics.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_54 = 'DEF_EFF, or defensive efficiency, is the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs by a teams defense, or (1 - BABIP).'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_55 = 'The number of hits above or below average for this pitcher, based on his own number of balls in play and his teams rate of hits (minus home runs) per ball in play; (H-HR) - BIP * (team (H-HR)/BIP). Essentially, the Voros McCracken number. For a team, Delta-H should be zero. Positive numbers signify more hits allowed than expected ("bad luck," if you believe pitchers have nothing to do with the outcome of a BIP), negative numbers mean fewer hits than expected ("good luck").'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_56 = 'The number of runs, more or less, that a pitcher allowed, compared to his statistics. The pitchers statistics (such as hits, walks, home runs) are run through a modified version of the equivalent runs formula to get estimated runs. Again, positive is "bad luck," negative is "good luck."'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_57 = 'The number of wins, more or less, that a pitcher won, compared to estimated wins. Estimated wins are derived from the pitchers actual runs allowed and team average run scoring. Here, a positive number is "good luck," negative is "bad luck."'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_58 = 'Defense-adjusted ERA. Not to be confused with Voros McCrackens Defense-Neutral ERA. Based on the PRAA, DERA is intended to be a defense-independent version of the NRA. As with that statistic, 4.50 is average. Note that if DERA is higher than NRA, you can safely assume he pitched in front of an above-average defense.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_59 = 'Diagnostics are a series of metrics designed to estimate the probability of certain types of changes in production and playing time; see the individual entries for additional detail. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_60 = 'Each league has been given a difficulty level, based on the performance of players in that league compared to the same players performance in other seasons. The reference difficulty level was defined by the trend line of the National League from 1947 to 2002, and extended backwards to 1871. The difficulty adjustment is the ratio between the actual difficulty level and the reference level.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_61 = 'Double plays, turned or hit into.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_62 = 'Drop Rate is the percent chance that a player will not receive any major league plate appearances in a given season, based on comparables who disappear from the dataset entirely. Because of the conventions PECOTA uses in selecting comparables, the Drop Rate is always assumed to be zero for the current year, but it is an important consideration in a hitters Five-Year Forecast. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_63 = 'Errors.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_64 = 'Expected win record for the pitcher, based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically (this differs from how it was computed, which was a more complicated, theoretical calculation).'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_65 = 'Expected loss record for the pitcher, based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically (this differs from how it was computed, which was a more complicated, theoretical calculation).'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_66 = 'Equivalent Average. A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position players defense. The EqA adjusted for all-time also has a correction for league difficulty. The scale is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average. League average EqA is always equal to .260. EqA is derived from Raw EqA, which is (H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB). REqA is then normalized to account for league difficulty and scale to create EqA. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_67 = 'The EQA Distribution chart displays a hitters EQA forecast at various levels of probability. It progresses in sequential intervals of five percentage points, ranging from a hitters 95th percentile forecast on the left, to his 5th percentile forecast on the right.
In addition to the probability distribution for a given hitter, which appears in blue, the chart also includes a normal distribution on EQA for all hitters in the league ("Norm"), and a dashed line representing the performance of a replacement level hitter ("Replace") at his position. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_68 = 'EqBB9 is calibrated to an ideal major league where EqBB9 = 3.0.\nWhile a major league pitchers equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league pitchers equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also adjust for park effects.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_69 = 'EqERA is calibrated to an ideal major league where EqERA = 4.50.\nWhile a major league pitchers equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league pitchers equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also adjust for park effects, and the quality of a pitchers defense. EqERA is conceptually identical to NRA, as used in the DT cards.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_70 = 'EqH9 is calibrated to an ideal major league where EqH9 = 9.0.\nWhile a major league pitchers equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league pitchers equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also adjust for park effects.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_71 = 'EqHR9 is calibrated to an ideal major league where EqHR9 = 1.0.\nWhile a major league pitchers equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league pitchers equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also adjust for park effects.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_72 = 'EqK9 is calibrated to an ideal major league where EqK9 = 6.0.\nWhile a major league pitchers equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league pitchers equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also adjust for park effects.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_73 = 'Equivalent Runs; EQR = 5 * OUT * EQA^2.5. In the fielding charts, the estimated number of EqR he had at the plate while playing this position in the field. In Adjusted Standings, EqR refers to the total number of equivalent runs scored by the team. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_74 = 'Equivalent Runs allowed by a team.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_75 = 'EqR/27, or Equivalent Runs per 27 Outs, is used in PECOTAs internal calculations to calibrate a hitters batting and baserunning outcomes (2B, HR, SB, etc.) with his overall offensive value. The correlation between EqR/27 and EqA is extremely high. Additional information on the derivation of Equivalent Runs can be found in the player cards glossary. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_76 = 'Earned Runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_77 = 'Earned Run Average. Earned runs, divided by innings pitched, multiplied by nine.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_78 = 'In PECOTA projections, the ERA Distribution chart displays a pitchers ERA forecast at various levels of probability. It progresses in sequential intervals of five percentage points, ranging from a pitchers 95th percentile forecast on the left, to his 5th percentile forecast on the right.
In addition to the probability distribution for a given pitcher, which appears in blue, the chart also includes a normal distribution on ERA for all pitchers in the league, as adjusted to the players current park and league context ("Norm"), and a dashed line representing the performance of a replacement level pitcher ("Replace"). '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_79 = 'The Five-Year Forecast is a players weighted mean PECOTA forecast, taken over his next five seasons.\nThe process for generating a players weighted mean line for a season some number of years into the future (e.g. 2008) is fundamentally identical to generating his forecast for the season immediately upcoming (e.g. 2006). The exception is that some players may have dropped out of the comparables database, in which case their performance cannot be considered. (See also \nJeremy Giambi Effect).\nIf a players Drop Rate exceeds 50% (that is, more than half of his comparables are no longer playing professional baseball), then PECOTA does not list his weighted mean line for that season. Instead the season is designated with the tagline Out of Baseball.\nNote that the Five-Year Forecast assumes that a players team context remains the same for all years of the forecast.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_80 = 'A players offensive wins above replacement, as listed on his PECOTA card. Analagous to BRAR.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_81 = 'A players defensive wins above replacement, as listed on his PECOTA card, and accounting for the value of his position and the quality of his defense. Analagous to FRAR.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_82 = 'Total WARP (Wins Above Replacement) as listed on his PECOTA card, considering both a players offensive and defensive contributions. See WARP1.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_83 = 'As listed in a players PECOTA card, a series of metrics designed to evaluate a players value to his team going forward. See individual entries for detail.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_84 = 'Runners on second base batted in'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_85 = 'Runners on third base batted in'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_86 = 'Marginal Value Above Replacement Player, as introduced in this article. MORP is modelled based on the actual behavior of recent free agent markets, and accounts for non-linearity in the market price of baseball talent (e.g. teams are willing to pay more for one 6-win player than two 3-win players).\nAs listed in a players PECOTA card, a players MORP includes the major league minimum salary, estimated to be $325,000 for 2006. Further, in a players Five-Year Forecast, we assume salary inflation of 5% per year through 2010 (EXCEPTION: a players Peak MORP does *not* include the minimum salary or the inflation adjustment.)\nFor 2006, a players MORP is estimated as follows:\n485000*WARP + 216000*(WARP^2) + 325000\n\n\n'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_87 = 'Fielding Runs Above Average.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_88 = 'Fielding Runs Above Replacement. The difference between an average player and a replacement player is determined by the number of plays that position is called on to make. That makes the value at each position variable over time. In the all-time adjustments, an average catcher is set to 39 runs above replacement per 162 games, first base to 10, second to 29, third to 22, short to 33, center field to 24, left and right to 14.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_89 = 'Games played (pitched, fielded, officiated). Properly speaking, a pitcher should only be credited with a game played on his batting line when he actually appears in the lineup (i.e., not when a DH hits for him.) The BP database is currently inconsistent in this respect.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_90 = 'Ratio of ground balls to fly balls.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_91 = 'Grounded into double play. Not recorded prior to 1933 in the NL, or 1939 in the AL, and not at all for the other leagues. Unfortunately, without opportunity information, I dont find it very useful for inclusion in EqA. There is also evidence, from Tom Ruane, that players who hit into more DP also tend to advance more runners with outs, enough to offset the DPs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_92 = 'Games started by a pitcher.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_93 = 'Singles or singles allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_94 = 'See BABIP.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_95 = 'Hits allowed per 9 innings pitched '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_96 = 'Hits allowed per 9 innings pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_97 = 'Hit by pitch. Not recorded for the NL 1876-1886, the AA in 1882-83, the 1884 UA, and the 1871-75 NA, for either hitters or pitchers. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_98 = 'Holds. A Hold is credited any time a relief pitcher enters a game in a Save Situation, records at least one out, and leaves the game never having relinquished the lead.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_99 = 'Historical Stats are the players previous three seasons of performance as they appear in the BP book (with the addition of a players WARP scores).'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_100 = 'Home runs, or home runs allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_101 = 'A category 1 start is a start in which the pitcher throws 100 pitches or less.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_102 = 'A category 2 start is a start in which the pitcher throws 101-109 pitches.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_103 = 'A category 3 start is a start in which the pitcher throws 110-121 pitches.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_104 = 'A category 4 start is a start in which the pitcher throws 122-132 pitches.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_105 = 'A category 5 start is a start in which the pitcher throws 133 or more pitches.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_106 = 'Intentional walks. Not recorded for any league prior to 1955.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_107 = 'Improvement Rate is the percent chance that a hitters EqR/27 or a pitchers EqERA will improve *at all* relative the weighted average of his EqR/27 or EqERA in his three previous seasons of performance. A player who is expected to perform just the same as he has in the past will have an Improvement Rating of 50%. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_108 = 'Innings officated.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_109 = 'Innings Pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_110 = 'Innings pitched per start.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_111 = 'Inherited Runs. The number of runners inherited by the reliever who scored while the reliever was in the game. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_112 = 'EqMLVr, or Equivalent rate-based Marginal Lineup Value, is calibrated to an ideal major league with an overall EqMLVr of .000.\n\nWhile a major league hitters equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league hitters equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also account for park effects.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_113 = 'Isolated Power (ISO) is one of five primary production metrics used in identifying a hitter or pitchers comparables. PECOTA uses a slightly modified version of Isolated Power that assigns the same value to triples as to doubles (extending a double into a triple is generally an indicator of speed, rather than additional power). Thus, the formula for isolated power as follows: ISO = (2B + 3B + HR*3) / AB '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_114 = 'Strikeouts per 9 innings pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_115 = 'Refers to a pitchers losses. In Adjusted Standings, refers to team losses. In VORP and PAP reports, refers to league. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_116 = '"First order losses." Pythagenport expected losses, based on RS and RA.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_117 = '"Second order losses." Pythagenport losses, based on EQR and EQRA.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_118 = '"Third order losses." Pythagenport losses, based on AEQR and AEQRA.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_119 = 'League. A or AL denotes American League. N or NL denotes National League.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_120 = 'The highest number of pitches thrown by a pitcher in one outing.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_121 = 'MLVr is a rate-based version of Marginal Lineup Value (MLV), a measure of offensive production created by David Tate and further developed by Keith Woolner. MLV is an estimate of the additional number of runs a given player will contribute to a lineup that otherwise consists of average offensive performers. MLVr is approximately equal to MLV per game. The league average MLVr is zero (0.000). Additional information on MLV and MLVr can be found here.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_122 = 'Players name.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_123 = 'Total number of pitches thrown.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_124 = 'Normalized Runs Allowed. "Normalized runs" have the same win value, against a league average of 4.5 and a pythagorean exponent of 2, as the players actual runs allowed did when measured against his league average.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_125 = 'On-base average. (H + BB + HBP) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SF). '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_126 = 'On-base percentage. (H + BB + HBP) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SF). For pitchers, OBP is on base percentage allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_127 = 'On Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_128 = 'Known outs made by the player, defined by AB-H+CS+SH+SF. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_129 = 'Offensive Winning Percentage. A Bill James stat, usually derived from runs created. In EqA terms, it could be calculated as (EQA/refEQA)^5, where refEQA is some reference EQA, such as league average (always .260) or the position-averaged EQA. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_130 = 'Plate appearances; AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_131 = 'The percentage of the teams total plate appearances that this player had. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_132 = 'Pitcher Abuse Points. When used in the Pitcher Abuse Point report, PAP refers to PAP^3, which assigns 0 PAP to a start in which the pitcher throws 100 or fewer pitches and (PC-100)^3 PAP for all other starts.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_133 = 'An adjustment made to account for the fact that some parks are easier to hit in than average, giving an advantage (in raw statistical terms) to hitters who play for that team. Park factors are always made relative to a league average of 1.00. The park adjustments in the BP are made only on the park factor for runs, averaged over five years; they can be found here. The first column is a one-year park factor, the second column is the five-year average centered on that year (assuming the team did not change or massively renovate their park).'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_134 = 'Passed balls; not available for the NA.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_135 = 'PERA is a pitchers ERA as estimated from his peripheral statistics (EqH9, EqHR9, EqBB9, EqK9). Because it is not sensitive to the timing of batting events, PERA is less subject to luck than ERA, and is a better predictor of ERA going-forward than ERA itself. Like the rest of a pitchers equivalent stats, his PERA is calibrated to an ideal league with an average PERA of 4.50. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_136 = 'Described more completely in the 2002 Prospectus, the breakdown is a sequence of calculations designed to separate the pitching and fielding components of defense from each other. Certain events (walks, strikeouts, home runs) are considered to be entirely the responsibility of the pitcher. Errors and double plays are assumed to be entirely the domain of the fielders. Other hits and outs are assumed to be 75% fielding, 25% pitching.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_137 = 'A pitchers park-adjusted RA, expressed on a scale like ERA or RA. RA+ -- Park and league normalized Run Average. Similar to ERA+ found in Total Baseball, but based on RA rather than ERA. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_138 = 'For Hitters:
The Player Profile is a chart that evaluates a given hitters primary production metrics (batting average, isolated power, unintentional walk rate, strikeout rate, and speed score) as a percentile compared to all major league hitters. For example, a player with an isolated power rating of 75% is superior in this category to three-quarters of all major leaguers. The player profile is based on the players three previous seasons of performance, rather than his projection.
For Pitchers:
The Player Profile is a chart that evaluates a pitchers performance in five categories: strikeout rate, walk rate, opponents isolated power (e.g. home run rate), hit rate on balls in play, and groundball-to-flyball ratio. The rates are presented as a percentile compared to all major league pitchers; for example, a player with a strikeout rating of 75% is superior in this category to three-quarters of all major leaguers. The player profile is based on the players three previous seasons of performance, rather than his projection.Note that the denominator for strikeout rate and walk rate as presented in the Player Profile is not innings pitched, but batters faced. This calculation is somewhat more accurate as pitchers differ in the number of batters they face per inning based on their on base average allowed. Note also that, for pitchers, the percentiles take into account whether the pitcher threw in a starting or relief role, as most pitchers post substantially better numbers in relief.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_139 = 'Positional MLV rate. Runs/game contributed by a batter beyond what an average player at the same position would hit in a team of otherwise league-average hitters. Like MLVr, it is a rate stat. The comparable season total is PMLV. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_140 = 'Putouts.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_141 = 'Players position.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_142 = 'For PECOTA, a players Position is a consideration in identifying his comparables, as well as in calculating his VORP. The players primary position as used by PECOTA is listed at the top of his forecast page; however, secondary and tertiary positions are also considered based on the relative amount of appearances that a player receives there. The position determination is made primarily based on the position(s) that a player appeared in his most recent season, with lesser consideration given to the position(s) he appeared other recent previous seasons. Both major league and minor league defensive appearances are considered in the determination of a players position, but major league appearances are weighted more heavily. PECOTA considers LF, CF and RF to be separate positions.
\n\nWhen listed numerically on our statistical reports, positions are: 1, pitcher; 2, catcher; 3, first base; 4, second base; 5, third base; 6, shortstop; 7, left field; 8, center field; 9, right field; 10, designated hitter; 11, pinch hitter; 12, pinch runner.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_143 = 'Pitcher-only runs above average. The difference between this and RAA is that RAA is really a total defense statistic, and PRAA tries to isolate the pitching component from the fielding portion. It relies on the pitching/fielding breakdown being run for the team, league, and individual. The individual pitching + defense total is compared to a league average pitcher + team average defense, and the difference is win-adjusted.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_144 = 'Pitcher-only runs above replacement. Similar to PRAA, except that the comparison is made to a replacement level player instead of average. The nominal RA for a replacement pitcher is 6.11 (the same ratio, compared to a 4.50 average, as a .230 EQA is to .260). This assumes that there is a 50/50 split between pitching and fielding. If the pitch/field split is less than that, as it was in the 1800s, the replacement ERA is reduced.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_145 = 'A modified form of Bill James pythagorean formula. Instead of using a fixed exponent (2, 1.83), the "pythagenport" formula derives the exponent from the run environment - the more runs per game, the higher the exponent. The formula for the exponent was X = .45 + 1.5 * log10 ((rs+ra)/g), and then winning percentage is calculated as (rs^x)/(rs^x + ra^x). The formula has been tested for run environments between 4 and 40 runs per game, but breaks down below 4 rpg. The original article is here.
\n\nAfter further review, I (Clay) have come to the conclusion that the so-called Smyth/Patriot method, aka Pythagenpat, is a better fit. In that, X=((rs+ra)/g)^.285, although there is some wiggle room for disagreement in the exponent. Anyway, that equation is simpler, more elegant, and gets the better answer over a wider range of runs scored than Pythagenport, including the mandatory value of 1 at 1 rpg. Go here for more.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_146 = 'Runs scored (for hitters) or allowed (pitchers).'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_147 = 'Actual team runs allowed. Can also stand for Run Average--runs allowed, earned or otherwise, divided by innings pitched, times 9.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_148 = 'Park and league normalized Run Average. Similar to ERA+ found in Total Baseball, but based on RA rather than ERA. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_149 = 'For Pitchers:
Runs above average. At its simplest, this would be the league runs per inning, times individual innings, minus individual runs allowed. However, we have gone one step beyond that, because being 50 runs above average in 1930, in the Baker Bowl, doesnt have the same win impact as being +50 in the 1968 Astrodome. The league runs per inning need to be adjusted for park and team hitting (and difficulty, for the alltime RAA), and then you can multiply by individual innings and subtract individual runs. Finally, that quantity needs to be win-adjusted. See win-adjustment.
For Fielders:
Runs above average at this position, similar to Palmers Fielding Runs as far as interpretation is concerned.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_150 = 'Fielding runs above replacement. A fielding statistic, where a replacement player is meant to be approximately equal to the lowest-ranking player at that position, fielding wise, in the majors. Average players at different positions have different FRAR values, which depend on the defensive value of the position; an average shortstop has more FRAR than an average left fielder. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_151 = 'See FRAR, FRAR2. FRAR2 incorporates adjustments for league difficulty and normalizes defensive statistics over time.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_152 = 'A way to look at the fielders rate of production, equal to 100 plus the number of runs above or below average this fielder is per 100 games. A player with a rate of 110 is 10 runs above average per 100 games, a player with an 87 is 13 runs below average per 100 games, etc.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_153 = 'See Rate. Rate2 incorporates adjustments for league difficulty and normalizes defensive statistics over time.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_154 = 'Runs Batted In. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_155 = 'Raw equivalent average, the first step towards building the EqA. In its fullest form, REQA = (H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB). REQA gets converted into unadjusted equivalent runs, UEQR.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_156 = 'Runs Prevented. The extra number of runs an average pitcher would have allowed in the same number of innings pitched (adjusted for park and league). RP greater than zero indicates that the pitcher allowed fewer runs than an average pitcher (i.e. hes better than average). Negative RP indicates the pitcher allowed more runs than an average pitcher (i.e. hes worse then average) '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_157 = 'Replacement level MLV rate. Runs/game contributed by a batter beyond what a replacement level player at the same position would hit in a team of otherwise league-average hitters. The comparable season total is RPMLV. It differs from VORPr and VORP only in that it is solely based on batting performance whereas VORP includes basestealing. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_158 = 'EqSLG, or Equivalent Slugging Percentage, is calibrated to an ideal major league with an overall EqSLG of .440.\n\nWhile a major league hitters equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league hitters equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also account for park effects.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_159 = 'Actual runs scored by a team.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_160 = 'Stolen bases. Not recorded for any league between 1876 and 1885. On the catchers fielding charts, not available prior to 1978.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_161 = 'Sacrifice flies. The statistical category of "sacrifice flies" did not exist prior to 1954; the concept had been around, on and off, since 1908, but had been always been part of the "SH" category. See SH. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_162 = 'Sacrifice hits. Not recorded prior to 1894. From 1894-1907, they were essentially the same as the modern rule - a bunt which advanced a baserunner. From 1908-25, they included what we would now call a sacrifice fly (sacrifices increase 25% between 1907 and 1908 as a result). From 1926-30, they included any fly ball on which a runner advanced, not just ones where the runner scored (another 25% increase in 1926). From 1931-38, sacrifice flies were eliminated completely (causing a 45% drop in sacrifices, and a 4-point decline in batting averages); that brought us back to the modern definition of sacrifice hit. In 1939 they re-introduced the run-scoring sac fly (returning to the 1908-25 rules), but eliminated it again in 1940. When sacrifice flies appeared again in 1954, they had their own category, so the rule for what we would call a sacrifice hit has not changed since 1940.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_163 = 'Shutouts.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_164 = 'Similarity Index is a composite of the similarity scores of all of a players comparables. Similarity index is a gauge of the players historical uniqueness; a player with a score of 50 or higher has a very common typology, while a player with a score of 20 or lower is historically unusual. For players with a very low similarity index, PECOTA expands its tolerance for dissimilar comparables until a meaningful sample size is established (see Comparable Players). '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_165 = 'Similarity Score is a relative measure of a players comparability. Its scale is very different from the Bill James similarity scores; a score of 100 is assigned to a perfect comparable, while a score of 0 represents a player who is meaningfully similar. Players can and frequently do receive negative similarity scores, and they are dropped from the analysis. A score above 50 indicates that a player is substantially comparable, and scores in excess of 70 are very unusual. The comparable player observations are weighted based on their similarity score in constructing a forecast. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_166 = 'Slugging percentage (hitters) or slugging percentage allowed (pitchers). Total bases divided by at-bats.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_167 = 'Support-Neutral Losses. the pitchers expected number of losses assuming he had league-average support.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_168 = 'SNW / (SNW+SNL)'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_169 = 'Support Neutral Value Added - wins above average added by the pitchers performance.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_170 = 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added - like SNVA, but also adjusted for the MLVr of each batter the pitcher faced.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_171 = 'Support-Neutral Wins. the pitchers expected number of wins assuming he had league-average support.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_172 = 'Support-Neutral Wins Above Replacement-level. the number of SNWs a pitcher has above what a .425 pitcher would get in the same number of (Support-Neutral) decisions.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_173 = 'Strikeouts.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_174 = 'Strikeouts per 9 innings pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_175 = 'Speed Score (SPD) is one of five primary production metrics used by PECOTA in identifying a hitters comparables. It is based in principle on the Bill James speed score and includes five components: Stolen base percentage, stolen base attempts as a percentage of opportunities, triples, double plays grounded into as a percentage of opportunities, and runs scored as a percentage of times on base.\nBeginning in 2006, BP has developed a proprietary version of Speed Score that takes better advantage of play-by-play data and ensures that equal weight is given to the five components. In the BP formulation of Speed Score, an average rating is exactly 5.0. The highest and lowest possible scores are 10.0 and 0.0, respectively, but in practice most players fall within the boundary between 7.0 (very fast) and 3.0 (very slow). '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_176 = 'The "standard league" is a mythical construction, in which all statistics have been adjusted for easy comparison. Its primary features are that runs scored is 4.5 runs per game; equivalent average is .260; and the pythagorean exponent is exactly 2.00.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_177 = 'In PECOTA, stolen base attempts as a percentage of times on first base. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_178 = 'A rough indicator of the pitchers overall dominance, based on normalized strikeout rates, walk rates, home run rates, runs allowed, and innings per game. "10" is league average, while "0" is roughly replacement level. The formula is as follows: Stuff = EqK9 * 6 - 1.333 * (EqERA + PERA) - 3 * EqBB9 - 5 * EqHR9 -3 * MAX{6-IP/G),0} '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_179 = 'Pitcher abuse points divided by number of pitches thrown, or PAP/NP.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_180 = 'Strikeout Rate (K) is one of five primary production metrics used by PECOTA in identifying a players comparables. It is defined as SO/PA. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_181 = 'Percentage of pitches thrown for strikes.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_182 = 'Saves.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_183 = 'Total batters faced. Not recorded for the NL 1876-1886, the AA of 1882-83, the 1884 UA, or the NA of 1871-75.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_184 = 'Team.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_185 = 'In Davenport Translations, team and league for which he played. At this time, for players who played for more than one team in a season, the order shown is not necessarily correct. The leagues are as follows: N signifies the National Association of 1871-1875 and the National League of 1876-present. A is for both the American Association (1882-1891, a major league, separate from the later minor league of the same name) and the 1901-present American League. U is the Union Association of 1884, P the Players League of 1890, and F the Federal League of 1914-15.
Otherwise (as in the PECOTA cards), Team is the three letter abbreviation for the team in question.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_186 = 'An adjustment made for hitters, to account for not having to face their own pitchers. Using pitching stats, (league R * pf - team R), divided by (league IP - team IP), divided by park-adjusted league runs per inning.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_187 = 'An adjustment made for pitchers, to account for not having to face their own teams batters. Using batting stats, (league runs * pf - team runs), divided by (league PA - team PA), divided by league runs per plate appearance * pf.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_188 = 'Team.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_189 = 'Hits plus doubles plus two times triples plus three times home runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_190 = 'Trend identifies players who demonstrate dramatic changes from their Baseline during their comparable year.
For Hitters:
Hitters who improve their EqR/PA by at least 20% are identified by a green, upward-pointing arrow and contribute to a hitters Breakout score; hitters whose EqR/PA decreases by at least 20% are identified by a red, downward-pointing arrow and contribute to a hitters Collapse score.
For Pitchers:
Pitchers who improve their EqERA by at least 20% are identified by a green, upward-pointing arrow and contribute to a pitchers Breakout score; pitchers whose EqERA increases by at least 25% are identified by a red, downward-pointing arrow and contribute to a pitchers Collapse score. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_191 = 'Unadjusted Equivalent Runs; (2 * REQA/LgREQA - 1) * PA * LgR/LgPA. Analogous to runs created.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_192 = 'The Ugueto Effect is name given to the phenomenon in which very poor players are associated with very high PECOTA Breakout scores. It is far easier for a player like Luis Ugueto, who would produce about 40 EQR over a full season, to improve upon that figure by 20% than it is for Alex Rodriguez; as a result, his Breakout score is likely to be higher. This does not mean that Ugueto is a player youd want anywhere near your roster. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_193 = 'Umpires name.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_194 = 'Unintentional Walk Rate (BB) is one of five primary production metrics used by PECOTA in identifying a players comparables. It is defined as (BB-IBB)/PA. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_195 = 'Runners On Base (typically the number of runners on base during a batters plate appearances)'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_196 = 'Others Batted In -- runs batted in, except for the batter driving himself in via a home run. Equal to RBI-HR'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_197 = 'Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a players defense.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_198 = 'VORP rate. Runs/game contributed beyond what a replacement level player would produce. Also a rate stat. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_199 = 'Refers to a pitchers wins. In Adjusted Standings, refers to team wins. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_200 = '"First order wins." Pythagenport expected wins, based on RS and RA.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_201 = '"Second order wins." Pythagenport wins, based on EQR and EQRA.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_202 = '"Third order wins." Pythagenport wins, based on AEQR and AEQRA.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_203 = 'Walks allowed per 9 innings pitched '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_204 = 'Wins Above Replacement Player, level 1. The number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done, with adjustments only for within the season.\nWARP is also listed on a players PECOTA card. The PECOTA WARP listing is designed to correspond to WARP-1, not WARP-2 or WARP-3.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_205 = 'Wins Above Replacement Player, with difficulty added into the mix.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_206 = 'WARP-2, expanded to 162 games to compensate for shortened seasons. Initially, I was just going to use (162/season length) as the multiplier, but this seemed to overexpand the very short seasons of the 19th century. I settled on using (162/scheduled games) ** (2/3). So Ross Barnes 7.4 wins in 1873, a 55 game season, only gets extended to 15.2 WARP, instead of a straight-line adjustment of 21.8.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_207 = 'The Weighted Mean forecast incorporates all of the players potential outcomes into a single average, weighted baed on projected playing time. In almost all cases, poor performances are associated with a reduced number of plate appearances. For that reason, they dont hurt a players team quite as much as good performances help it; the weighting is designed to compensate for this effect (see also Jeremy Giambi Effect).\nEXCEPTION: a players projected PLAYING TIME (and therefore, his counting statistics that are incumbent on his playing time) is taken based on the median of his comparables performance, rather than the weighted mean. This is designed to mitigate the influence of catastrophic injuries, which are better represented by Attrition Rate. \nThis exception does NOT affect a players WARP and VORP forecast, which are calculated per the weighted mean method, treating players who dropped out of the database as having zero WARP/VORP.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_208 = 'A correction made to raw runs when converting them to a standard league to preserve their win value. Define an average team from season games played, league runs per game (9 innings or 27 outs, depending on whether you are using pitcher or batter data), and appropriate adjustments (park, team hitting/pitching, difficulty). "Team" is the effect of replacing one player on the average team with the player we are analyzing. Calculate the pythagorean exponent from (average + team) / games as your RPG entry; calculate winning percentage using the modified pythagorean formula. Now, go backwards, solve for "team" runs, given the winning percentage, an average team that scores 4.5 per game, and a pythagorean exponent of 2.00.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_209 = 'See WARP-1.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_210 = 'Wild pitches.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_211 = 'Adjusted Innings Pitched; used for the PRAA and PRAR statistics. There are two separate adjustments:
1) Decisions. Innings are redistributed among the members of the team to favor those who took part in more decisions (wins, losses, and saves) than their innings alone would lead you to expect. The main incentive was to do a better job recognizing the value of closers than a simple runs above average approach would permit. XIPA for the team, after this adjustment, will equal team innings. First, adjust the wins and saves; let X = (team wins) / (team wins + saves). Multiply that by individual (wins + saves) to get an adjusted win total. Add losses. Multiply by team innings divided by team wins and losses.
2) Pitcher/fielder share. When I do the pitch/field breakdown for individuals, one of the stats that gets separated is innings. If an individual pitcher has more pitcher-specific innings than an average pitcher with the same total innings would have, than the difference is added to his XIPA. If a pitcher has fewer than average, the difference is subtracted. This creates a deliberate bias in favor of pitchers who are more independent of their fielders (the strikeout pitchers, basically), and against those who are highly dependent on their defenses (the Tommy John types).'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_212 = 'Reached On Error: when a batter reaches first base as a direct result of a fielding error.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_213 = 'Batters Left On Base'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_214 = 'Lefty One Out GuY - a left handed reliever specializing in getting one out, often in game critical situations'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_215 = 'Runs Above Replacement, Position-adjusted. A statistic that compares a hitters Equivalent Run total to that of a replacement-level player who makes the same number of outs and plays the same position. A "replacement level" player is one who has .736 times as many EqR as the average for the position; that corresponds to a .351 winning percentage. Used when fielding data is unavailable.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_216 = 'Batting Runs Above Average. The number of runs better than a hitter with a .260 EQA (i.e., an average hitter) and the same number of outs; EQR - 5 * OUT * .260^2.5.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_217 = 'Batting Average on balls put into play. A pitchers average on batted balls ending a plate appearance, excluding home runs. Based on the research of Voros McCracken and others, BABIP is mostly a function of a pitchers defense and luck, rather than persistent skill. Thus, pitchers with abnormally high or low BABIPs are good bets to see their performances regress to the mean. A typical BABIP is about .290.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_218 = 'EqOBP, or Equivalent On Base Percentage, is calibrated to an ideal major league with an overall EqOBP of .340.\n\nWhile a major league hitters equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league hitters equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also account for park effects.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_219 = 'EqBA, or Equivalent Batting Average, is calibrated to an ideal major league with an overall EqBA of .270.\n\nWhile a major league hitters equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league hitters equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also account for park effects.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_220 = 'like SNVA, but comparing to replacement level, rather than average. Replacement level is now being computed the same way in SNVA and in VORP (using the formulas from Keith Woolners BP 2002 article).'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_221 = 'like SNLVA, but comparing to replacement level, rather than average. Replacement level is now being computed the same way in SNVA and in VORP (using the formulas from Keith Woolners BP 2002 article).'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_222 = 'Standard deviation of per-start SNVA for each pitcher. This was previously shown as the variance, and was used to compute the "flakiest" pitchers. Standard deviation is just the square root of the variance, so these are equivalent.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_223 = 'Luck, as measured by the number of extra wins, and short losses the pitcher actually got, versus his expected record. LUCK = (W-E(W))+(E(L)-L)'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_224 = 'Teams expected wins in the games started by the pitcher. This will always add (with TmL) up to the pitchers total games started.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_225 = 'Teams expected losses in the games started by the pitcher. This will always add (with TmW) up to the pitchers total games started.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_226 = 'Runs Above Position: The number of Equivalent Runs this player produced, above what an average player at the same postion would have produced in the same number of outs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_227 = 'Games in relief'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_228 = 'Inherited baserunners. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_229 = 'Inherited runners who scored. A raw count of the number of runners who scored. This differs from INR, which subtracts INS from the expected number of inherited runners that would have scored given league average performance in the given situations.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_230 = 'Bequeathed baserunners.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_231 = 'Bequeathed runners who scored.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_232 = 'Bequeathed runs prevented from scoring. Measures how many more or fewer of the bequeathed baserunners subsequent relievers allowed to score than would be expected from league average performance in those situations. I.e., a positive figure means the following relievers kept more of the bequeathed runners from scoring than expected, negative means more of the runners scored than expected.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_233 = 'Adjusted Pitching Runs (a la Thorn & Palmer in "Total Baseball").'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_234 = 'Adjusted Runs Prevented from scoring.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_235 = 'How much a pitcher is underrated by Adjusted Pitching Runs (DIFF = ARP - APR).'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_236 = 'Percentage of plate appearances that result in a walk. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_237 = 'Home runs allowed per 9 innings pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_238 = 'Expected wins added over an average pitcher. WX uses win expectancy calculations to assess how relievers have changed the outcome of games. Win expectancy looks at the inning, score, and runners on base when the reliever entered the game, and determines the probability of the team winning the game from that point with an average pitcher. Then it looks at how the reliever actually did, and how that changes the probability of winning. The difference between how the reliever improved the chances of winning and how an average pitcher would is his WX.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_239 = 'Expected wins added over an average pitcher, adjusted for level of opposing hitters faced. WXL factors in the MLVr of the actual batters faced by the relievers. Then, like WX, WXL uses win expectancy calculations to assess how relievers have changed the outcome of games.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_240 = 'Expected wins added over a replacement level pitcher. WXR uses win expectancy calculations to assess how relievers have changed the outcome of games, similar to WX. However, instead of comparing the pitchers performance to an average pitcher, he is compared to a replacement level pitcher to determine WXR.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_241 = 'Expected wins added over a replacement level pitcher, adjusted for level of opposing hitters. WXRL combines the individual adjustments for replacement level (WXR) and quality of the opposing lineup (WXL) to the basic WX calculation.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_242 = 'The number of additional runs charged to the starting pitcher that his bullpen allowed to score after he left the game, compared to an average bullpen. Negative Pen Support means the bullpen prevented more runs from scoring than an average pen (i.e. the pitchers ERA looks better than it should because of good bullpen support).'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_243 = 'The probability of winning the current game, given some\ninformation about how many runs each team has scored to a certain point in the game, how many outs there are, whether there are runners on base, and the strength of each team. Keith Woolner outlined a method for computing Win Expectancy given all of these parameters in BP 2005.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_244 = 'Number of runs a batter has driven in per runner on base during a batters plate appearances. Defined as total baserunners/RBI (NB: Runners on base are other than the batter himself--RBIs resulting from a batter driving himself in on home runs are removed).'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_245 = 'Marginal Lineup Value, a measure of offensive production created by David Tate and further developed by Keith Woolner. MLV is an estimate of the additional number of runs a given player will contribute to a lineup that otherwise consists of average offensive performers. Additional information on MLV can be found here.\n'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_246 = 'Positional MLV. Runs contributed by a batter beyond what an average player at the same position would produce in a team of otherwise league-average hitters.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_247 = 'Runs Above Replacement. RAR compares a hitters Equivalent Run total to that of a replacement level player who makes the same number of outs and plays the same position. A replacement level player is one who has .736 times as many EqR as the average for that position; that corresponds to a .351 winning percentage.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_248 = 'Indication of who is on base, used to calculate Win Expectancy. An unoccupied base is designated with a 0, and an occupied base is designated with the number of the base (1=first base, 2=second base, 3= third base). All bases are represented by a three-digit string. For example, 000=bases empty, while 103=runners on first and third.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_249 = 'Refers to the Baserunner State combined with the number of\nouts in the current half inning, used to calculate Win Expectancy. For example, 2-103 indicates two outs with runners on first and third.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_250 = 'Runs Per Inning. RPI is the average number of runs scored per inning by a given team or lineup, used to calculate Win Expectancy. RPI is a measure of the strength of a teams offense (or conversely, the strength of the opposing teams pitching staff).'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_251 = 'Runner on first. In the RBI opportunity report, refers to the number of times a batter came to the plate with a runner at first base.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_252 = 'Runner on second. In the RBI opportunity report, refers to the number of times the batter came to the plate with a runner at second base.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_253 = 'Runner on third. In the RBI opportunity report, refers to the number of times the batter came to the plate with a runner at third base.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_254 = 'Inherited runs prevented from scoring. The expected number of inherited runners that would score in the relievers appearances based upon league average performance, minus the actual number the reliever allowed to score.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_255 = 'Hits, or hits allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_256 = 'The maximum amount of Pitcher Abuse Points a pitcher has accumulated in a single start.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_257 = 'Teams expected winning percentage in the games started by the pitcher.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_258 = 'Strikeout to walk ratio: strikeouts divided by walks. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_259 = 'Percentage of plate appearances that result in the batter reaching base on an error.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_260 = 'Percentage of plate appearances that result in a strikeout.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_261 = 'Percentage of stolen base attempts that are successful. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_262 = 'The total amount of baserunners that have been on base for a batters plate appearances.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_263 = 'The Pitchers Quality of Batters Faced statistical report shows how good the hitters a pitcher has faced are. A pitcher who has faced batters with an average OPS of .750, for example, has had an easier time than a pitcher facing batters with an average OPS of .800.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_264 = '"Fair" runs against average. RA with inherited/bequeathed runners included.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_265 = 'The percent of the time the double play opportunities (DP_OPPS) were converted into double plays (DP)'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_266 = 'The percentage of the time that a stolen base attempt was successful.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_267 = 'Walk rate. Percentage of plate appearances that result in a walk. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_268 = 'The number of runs a player has batted in other than himself (BATTED_IN=RBI-HR).'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_269 = 'Converts the players batting statistics into a context that is the same for everybody. The major characteristics of the translation are: 1) that the translated EQA should equal the original, all-time adjusted EQA (within some margin for error); 2) that all seasons are expanded to a 162 game schedule; 3) that the statistics are adjusted to a season where an average hitter would have, per 650 PA: 589 AB, 153 H, 31 DB, 3 TP, 19 HR, 56 BB, 5 HBP, 113 SO, 10 SB, 5 CS, 79 R and 75 RBI. His rates would be a .260 batting average, .330 onbase average, .420 slugging average, and a .260 EQA with 76 EQR.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_270 = 'Converts all pitching statistics into a standard context. Pitchers are translated to a league where the top five pitchers (in innings) pitch an average of 275 innings. An average pitcher will have rates, per nine innings, of 9.00 hits, 1.00 home run, 3.00 walks, 6.00 strikeouts, and 4.50 earned runs. In the standard context, a replacement level pitcher has a 6.00; the translation is set up to conserve runs above replacement (alltime PRAR). Wins and losses are set using the pythagorean formula with average run support, with the pitchers actual deviation from his real expected win percentage added back in.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_271 = 'Inherited runs prevented from scoring. The expected number of inherited runners that would score in the relievers appearances based upon league average performance, minus the actual number the reliever allowed to score.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_272 = 'Bequeathed baserunners.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_273 = 'Bequeathed baserunners who scored.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_274 = 'Bequeathed runs prevented from scoring. Measures how many more or fewer of the bequeathed baserunners subsequent relievers allowed to score than would be expected from league average performance in those situations. I.e., a positive figure means the following relievers kept more of the bequeathed runners from scoring than expected, negative means more of the runners scored than expected.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_275 = '"Fair" runs against average. RA with inherited/bequeathed runners included.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_276 = 'The Stars & Scrubs Chart represents the probability that a player will demonstrate a given level of performance over the course of his next five seasons.\nIn particular, for hitters:\nSuperstar performance represents an EqA of .300 or better.\nStar performance represents an EqA of between .280 and .300\nRegular performance represents an EqA of between .250 and .280\nFringe performance represents an EqA of between .230 and .250\nScrub performance represents an EqA worse than .230\nDrop represents the players Drop Rate - the probability that the player will drop out of the league entirely.\n\nNote that these thresholds ARE adjusted for a players defensive position. A shortstop would need an EqA of about .290 to be considered a Star performer, while a right fielder would need an EqA of .310.\n\nSimilarly, for pitchers:\n\nSuperstar performance represents an EqERA of 3.25 or better.\nStar performance represents an EqERA of between 3.25 and 4.00\nRegular performance represents an EqERA of between 4.00 and 5.00\nFringe performance represents an EqERA of between 5.00 and 5.50\nScrub performance represents an EqERA worse than 5.50\nDrop represents Drop Rate - the probability that the player will drop out of the league entirely.\n\nA small adjustment is made for starters versus relief pitchers, analagous to the positional adjustment described above.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_277 = 'Abbreviation for Speed Score as used in PECOTA cards.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_278 = 'Career Path Analysis is the name for a chart on a players PECOTA card. The solid, curved lines represent a players VORP at his 90th, 75th, 60th, 50th (Median), 40th, 25th and 10th percentile levels of performance over the course of his next five seasons. All of these lines appear in BLUE, except for a players Median/50th percentile forecast, which appears in RED.\nThe dashed YELLOW line represents a players Weighted Mean VORP forecast. Because of the Jeremy Giambi Effect (the correlation between quality of performance and playing time), the Weighted Mean forecast line will usually be somewhat more favorable than the Median forecast line, particularly for players with highly volatile forecasts (lots of upside).\nNote that players who drop out of a players comparables set are represented on the Career Path Anaylsis chart as having a VORP of 0.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_279 = 'The Jeremy Giambi Effect is a name given to the correlation between playing time and quality of performance. The Jeremy Giambi Effect has important implications for understanding a players PECOTA forecast.\nFollowing are Giambis plate appearances and OPS for each year of his major league career\nYear PA OPS\n1998 70 .739\n1999 336 .741\n2000 302 .761\n2001 443 .841\n2002 397 .919\n2003 156 .696\nNote that the correlation between Giambis PA and OPS is very strong (r=.72). He played more often when he played more effectively, and less so when he played less effectively. Eventually, his performance became so poor that he could no longer secure any major league playing time at all.\nBecause of the Jeremy Giambi Effect, players that perform better will make more contribution to his weighted mean forecast. Therefore, a players weighted mean forecast may lead to a falsely optimistic portrait of his future, particularly for players with high drop and attrition rates.\nWe suggest paying the most attention to the Stars & Scrubs Chart, Career Path Anaylsis, and Five-Year WARP Forecast. All of these have a more sophisticated technique to account for the Jeremy Giambi Effect, by considering dropped comparables, but assigning them a value of zero.\n\n\n'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_280 = 'Defense, as listed in a players PECOTA card, provides the players number of defensive games played, primary position, and fielding runs above average (FRAA) with a given team in a given season.\nAlthough only a players primary defensive position is listed on a players PECOTA card, the system considers his performance at secondary positions as well in making its forecasts.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_281 = 'Out of Baseball is the tag assigned to a players five-year forecast when his Drop Rate in that season exceeds 50%. That is, we do not list a players forecast line when it is more likely than not that he will not be playing professional baseball.\nEven if a player receives the dreaded Out of Baseball tag, he can still accumulate residual WARP and VORP value based on those comparables that do remain in the league, as accounted for in his Valuation metrics.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_282 = 'A series of metrics designed to evaluate a players value over a consecutive five year period, as forecast by PECOTA.\nFor a player aged 24 or older, his PEAK score is simply the sum of his value in a particular category over the next five seasons.\nPlayers aged 23 or younger may receive an additional adjustement based on their age. This is determined by extrapolating a generic aging curve to the last two seasons of the players Five-Year PECOTA Forecast, up until a player is aged 28. Prince Fielder, for example, has projected WARP scores as follows\nAge 22: 2.9\nAge 23: 3.3\nAge 24: 3.6\nAge 25: 3.7\nAge 26: 3.8\nAge 27: 3.8 (Extrapolated)\nAge 28: 3.7 (Extrapolated)\n\nFielders PEAK score is determined by summing the highest projected score over a consecutive five-year period. In this case, that is the period from Age 24 to Age 28, wherein Fielders total projected WARP is 18.6.\nNote that, while young pitchers are also eligible to receive an age adjustment, their aging curves are generally less favorable than those of position players.\n'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_283 = 'UPSIDE is determined by evaluating the performance of a players PECOTA comparables. If a comparable player turned in a performance better than league average, then twice that players BRAA or PRAA is counted toward his UPSIDE. If the player was worse than league average, or he dropped out of the databse, the performance is counted as zero.\nFor example, say that a player has seven comparables, who perform as follows:\nPlayer BRAA\nBashful +30\nDoc -10\nDopey -15\nGrumpy +5\nHappy +40\nSleepy 0 (Out of Baseball)\nSneezy -5\nAVERAGE 6.4\nThese comparables contribution to the players UPSIDE would then be as follows:\nBashful +60\nDoc 0\nDopey 0\nGrumpy +10\nHappy +80\nSleepy 0 (Out of Baseball)\nSneezy 0\nAVERAGE 21.4\nUPSIDE is designed to evaluate developing players to which a team has relatively little financial commitment. UPSIDE rewards players who have some chance of becoming very good major leaguers, without punishing them for other outcomes in which they do not become very good players, but their team wont suffer from their performance because it can keep them them on the bench or in the minor leagues. It may be less appopriate for evaluating established players, especially those to which a team has a long-term financial commitment.\nUnlike regular BRAA and PRAA, UPSIDE scores are adjusted for a players defensive position, and for whether a pitcher throws in a starting or relief role.\n(Note: the preceding Seven Dwarves example is a slight oversimplifaction of the process that PECOTA uses to assess the performance of comparables.)'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_284 = 'Walks plus hits allowed per inning pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_285 = 'A players weighted mean Value Above Replacement Player, as determined in his Five-Year Forecast.\nNote that, in the Valuation section of a pitchers PECOTA card, his VORP forecast backs out any favorable or unfavorable effects of his teams defense, and assumes that he pitches in front of a neutral defense.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_286 = 'The Five-Year WARP forecast measures a players projected wins above replacement. For position players, this value is subdivided into batting wins, and defensive wins.\nAs time progresses, certain of the players comparables will drop from the dataset entirely. In some cases, this is the result of a comparable player not yet having appeared in the comparable year in question. These players are dropped from the average for the season in question without any prejudicial effect. In other cases, a hitter has completed his comparable year, but did not record any plate appearances as a result of injury, retirement, demotion, and so on. These players are retained in the wins above replacement calculation, but are assigned a value of zero. (These comparables also contribute to a players Drop Rate). Because of this convenient method for handling comparables who disappear from the dataset, the Five-Year Value forecast is the best way to evaluate a players value going forward.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_287 = 'The Five-Year Performance forecast measures a hitters forecast EqA or a pitchers EqERA at various percentiles (90th, 75th, 60th, 50th, 40th, 25th and 10th) over the course of the next five seasons. The percentile forecasts are indicated by solid lines, usually in BLUE, except for his median/50th percentile forecast which is indicated in RED. Also listed is the players weighted mean forecast in that category, indicated with a dashed YELLOW line.\nUnlike the Five-Year WARP forecast, the Performance forecast has no convenient way to adjust for dropped comparables, and so it simply ignores them. For this reason, the Performance forecast may be misleading for players whose comparables have a high attrition rate. (See also Jeremy Giambi Effect). '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_288 = 'The Five-Year Attrition forecast measures a players Attrition Rate and Drop Rate over the forthcoming five seasons. These forecasts consider only players who have completed the comparable year in question.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_289 = 'Percentage of runners on first batted in'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_290 = 'Percentage of runners on second base batted in'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_291 = 'Percentage of runners on third base batted in'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_292 = 'Percentage of all runners on base batted in (Others Batted In Percentage)'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_293 = 'Times On Base -- times reaching base by hit, walk, or hit by pitch. Reaching by error is sometimes included, depending on the context.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_294 = 'Fielders Choice'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_295 = 'Number of times Interference was called'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_296 = 'Situations where a Double Play was possible -- a plate appearance with a runner on first base and less than two outs'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_297 = 'Unearned Run Average. Equal to (Unearned Runs)/(Innings Pitched)*9'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_298 = 'Hits per inning pitched'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_299 = 'Walks per inning pitched'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_300 = 'Strikeouts per inning pitched'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_301 = 'Home Runs per Inning Pitched'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_302 = 'Baserunners per 9 innings. BR9 = (H+BB+HBP)/IP*9'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_303 = 'Unintentional base on balls rate (UBB per plate appearance).'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_304 = 'Intentional base on balls rate (per plate appearance)'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_305 = 'Hit Rate -- hits per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_306 = 'Singles rate -- Singles per plate appearance.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_307 = 'Doubles Rate -- doubles per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_308 = 'Triples Rate -- triples per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_309 = 'Home Run Rate -- homers per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_310 = 'Hit By Pitch Rate -- HBP per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_311 = 'Sacrifice Fly Rate -- Sac flies per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_312 = 'Sacrifice Hit Rate -- Sacrifices per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_313 = 'Reached On Error Rate -- reaching first on error per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_314 = 'Strikeout Rate -- Strikeouts per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_315 = 'Out Rate -- Batting outs per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_316 = 'Non-Strikeout Out Rate -- batting outs (other than by strikeout, i.e. outs on balls in play) per plate appearance.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_317 = 'Percentage of batted balls that were classified as popups (percentage is based on the number of batted balls that were classified at all -- batted balls which do not have a known type are omitted)'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_318 = 'Percentage of batted balls that were classified as line drives (percentage is based on the number of batted balls that were classified at all -- batted balls which do not have a known type are omitted)'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_319 = 'Percentage of batted balls that were classified as ground balls (percentage is based on the number of batted balls that were classified at all -- batted balls which do not have a known type are omitted)'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_320 = 'Percentage of batted balls that were classified as fly balls (percentage is based on the number of batted balls that were classified at all -- batted balls which do not have a known type are omitted)'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_321 = 'Runs scored Rate -- Runs scored (typically by a player) per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_322 = 'RBI Rate -- RBI per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_323 = 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) per game started'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_324 = 'Maximum Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) in a single start'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_325 = 'Total Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) accumulated'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_326 = 'Average number of pitches per start'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_327 = 'Maximum number of pitches in a start'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_328 = 'Total number of pitches thrown'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_329 = 'Win Expectation above Replacement, Lineup-adjusted.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_330 = 'Primary position played (position where the most PA were accumulated)'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_331 = 'Number of plate appearances that started (led off) an inning'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_332 = 'Triple plays'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_333 = 'Number of plate appearances that ended a game'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_334 = 'Total Base Percentage -- total bases per plate appearance (as opposed to slugging average, SLG, which is total bases per at-bat)'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_335 = 'At Bat Rate -- at bats per plate appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_336 = 'Batting Park Factor'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_337 = 'Percentage of total team plate appearances accumulated by one player. PA% = (Players PA) / (Teams PA)'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_338 = 'Equivalent Outs'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_339 = 'Opponents Quality, Batting Average -- the aggregate batting average of all batters faced (by a pitcher), or allowed by all pitchers faced (for a batter)'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_340 = 'Opponents Quality, On-Base Percentage -- the aggregate onbase percentage of all batters faced (by a pitcher), or allowed by all pitchers faced (for a batter)'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_341 = 'Opponents Quality, Slugging Average -- the aggregate slugging average of all batters faced (by a pitcher), or allowed by all pitchers faced (for a batter)'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_342 = 'Runs charged to a pitcher before he is removed from the game (i.e. excluding runners on base when he exited who may have been allowed to score by a subsequent pitcher)'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_343 = 'Inherited runners who scored during a pitchers appearance'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_344 = 'Bequeathed runners the pitcher is responsible for (excluding runners still on base put there by a preceding pitcher)'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_345 = 'Relief Percentage -- positive relief decisions (saves and holds) divided by total relief decisions (saves, holds, blown saves)'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_346 = 'Whole innings -- complete innings started and finished by the pitcher (no fractional innings are counted)'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_347 = 'Innings completed by a pitcher'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_348 = 'Fair Run Average in relief appearances'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_349 = 'Pitching Park Factor'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_350 = 'Three True Outcomes -- home runs, walks, and strikeouts.\n\nOriginally conceived of as an offbeat tribute to Rob Deer (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=724), the TTO celebrates batters who dont put the ball into play.\n\nIronically, TTO gained some credence beyond its novelty value with the development of Voros McCrackens DIPS theory that states that pitchers have little control over the otucomes of batted balls in play, and thus should be evaluated primarily on the basis of the strikeouts, walks, and home runs they allow.\n\nBP has awarded the TTO crown annually for several years. e.g. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4721'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_351 = 'The "Three True Outcomes" (aka TTO) are home runs, walks, and strikeouts. Originally conceived of as an offbeat tribute to Rob Deer (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=724), the TTO celebrates batters who dont put the ball into play. Ironically, TTO gained some credence beyond its novelty value with the development of Voros McCrackens DIPS theory that states that pitchers have little control over the otucomes of batted balls in play, and thus should be evaluated primarily on the basis of the strikeouts, walks, and home runs they allow. BP has awarded the TTO crown annually for several years. e.g. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4721'; Detroit Tigers
They lost 119 games four years ago, and last year they lost 91, causing Baseball Prospectus 2006 to opine "This year is probably a lost cause." Instead, the 2006 Tigers won 95 games in the regular season, and are one win away from the World Series. How did this happen? Let's look at how the postseason roster was built, before moving on to talk about Oakland.
Ivan Rodriguez (Free Agent, 2/04)
Before Pudge came along, Brandon Inge was the homegrown option behind the plate for a couple of years. Obviously, you can't avoid signing one of the best players at his position in the game because you have Brandon Inge. Wilson came over for Anderson Hernandez, who has done practically nothing in New York; he's your classic serviceable backup catcher who does his job well behind the plate, doesn't get on base much, but occasionally hits one out.
Sean Casey (Trade, 7/06)
The only talents here that have spent their entire careers with the Tigers are Infante and Inge. Santiago should almost count, as he came up with the Tigers, got traded to Seattle in the Carlos Guillen trade, and was subsequently re-signed by the Tigers once the Mariners cut him. Which brings us to the Carlos Guillen trade: in January 2004, the Mariners sent Guillen to the Tigers for Santiago and Juan Gonzalez (no, not that Juan Gonzalez). Santiago was released less than two years later, and Gonzalez has turned into a A-ball journeyman, so the trade netted nothing for Seattle, but just as damming was why the trade was even made in the first place. The same day the Mariners made that trade, they also signed Rich Aurilia as a free agent. Now Guillen was hardly the star he is now, but he was 28 years old, coming off his best season at .276/.359/.394, and due a mere $2.5 million. Aurilla had the outlier 37 home run season in 2001, but was coming off a year (.277/.325/.410) that was really no better than Guillen's, was four years older, and going to cost three-quarters of a million more. While nobody really saw Guillen turning into this kind of player, it's still a remarkably bad move. Looking at the rest of this list does show what a tough time the Tigers have had in developing their own infielders, as they haven't developed a good shortstop or second baseman since Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker owned those jobs for nearly two decades.
Alexis Gomez (Free Agent, 11/05)
Ordonez had a good season, but certainly not a $16 million season. Luckily the Tigers make up for in with a drafted player (Granderson) who is cheap for a while yet, and some nice inexpensive finds on the scrap heap. An eighth-round pick out of high school by the Rangers in 1995, Monroe spent three years in the Florida State League, but had some decent years at Double- and Triple-A, with OBPs over .350 and slugging percentages over .500. Just 23, the Rangers tried to sneak him through waivers prior to the 2002 season in a 40-man roster maneuver, and the Tigers wisely pounced.
Forgotten fact: Monroe was more of a speedster with some pop than the opposite early in his career, stealing 50 bases for High-A Charlotte in 1997, and swiping another 40 bags the following year. Thames was a Yankees draft-and-follow signed in 1997 who was floundering until 2001, when he hit .321/.410/.598 with 31 home runs at Double-A Norwich. The next year he hit .207/.297/.378 at Triple-A Columbus, and the bloom was off the rose. After another slow start he was sent to the Rangers for what was left of Ruben Sierra. He played 45 games in the Rangers' organization before they made him a free agent, and the Tigers signed him to play at Triple-A Toledo, where he exploded again, batting .329/.410/.735 in 2004 and .340/.427/.679 the following year. He's truly the definition of a late bloomer. Gomez is also a waiver claim who the Tigers re-signed after the 2005 season. Always highly regarded for his tools when he was coming up in the Royals system, Gomez was always more tools than performance before Kansas City finally gave up on him. Despite his Game Two heroics, he's not likely to ever make any sort of long-term impact in the big leagues.
Starting Pitchers:
Jeremy Bonderman (Trade, 8/02)
Bonderman was a first-round pick in 2001 by the Athletics. At the time, they did not have a Low-A team, so he debuted in the California League and pitched very well for his age, with a 3.61 ERA and 160 strikeouts in 144.2 innings. He went to the Tigers in a somewhat complicated three-way deal that got the A's and Yankees, well, not a whole heckuva lot. The next year he was one of the biggest stories of spring training as he made the rotation despite just 27 minor league starts. He easily had his best season this year, and he's only 24 (at the end of October). If he continues to advance, he'll be one of the more expensive free agents in recent memory as a power righthander just entering his prime. That is the danger of bringing up players when they are 20 years old.
A fifth-round pick in 1999 by the Marlins, Robertson moved quickly through the Florida system despite some early arm problems and came over in a trade for Mark Redman. Rogers was a free agent signing this year--with 207 career wins, he's certainly one of the best 39th round picks in history. It's easy to write off Verlander as a gimme, since he was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2004 draft, but that's not really the case. While he did strike out 151 in 105.2 innings in his final year at Old Dominion, he also had a paltry 7-6 record and a 3.49 ERA. It was easy to find college pitchers in that draft who were more dominant, but it was impossible to find one with better stuff. Pitchers with two offerings that grade out as 70 or higher on the 20-80 scouting scale are nearly impossible to find in the majors, never mind college. He serves as another example of why you cannot draft college players solely off statistics.
Jason Grilli (Free Agent, 2/05)
Grilli is another lost soul who found his way to Detroit, where he's become a useful arm. So much was expected from him early on, and most have probably forgotten that he was the fourth overall pick by the Giants in 1997 out of Seton Hall. The Giants rushed him, beginning his career in Double-A, and he didn't pitch especially well, but still had enough promise to be involved in a trade to the Marlins for Livan Hernandez. His Florida career was a mix of injuries and ineffectiveness, after which the White Sox took him in the 2003 Rule Five draft; he lasted in their system for a year before getting released and landing in Detroit. So many high draft picks either turn into stars, or turn into nothing--it's rare to see the player who sticks it out, overcomes adversity and turns into a generic major leaguer--maybe that's why I like him so much.
Todd Jones was a first-round pick 17 years ago, and is earning the biggest salary of his career at 38. Ledezma was picked Rule 5 out of the Red Sox system in 2002, and the Tigers did a good job of keeping him in the majors on a bad 2003 team before allowing him to develop in the minors again starting the next following season. Miner was a mediocre Braves prospect that arrived in last year's Kyle Farnsworth deal, and he pitched well enough at Triple-A Toledo to get a chance and did well as a fifth starter. He'll never be anything more than that, but it's nice work if you can get it. Rodney is a homegrown power arm that came along slowly but finally paid off. Walker began his career with Houston at a 10th round pick in 1992, was selected by Atlanta in the Rule Five draft five years later, and basically became an organizational lefty, bouncing to Kansas City and Cleveland before arriving in Detroit and finally getting an opportunity to shine. Zumaya is one of those unrepeatable strokes of luck. An 11th round pick in 2002 as a raw high school arm who occasionally touched 90, it's nearly impossible to find any other pitcher in history who throws 10-12 mph harder than he did in high school.
The Breakdown:
Free Agent Signs: 9
The free agent signings should be broken up into two categories. Rodriguez, Ordonez, Jones and Rogers are all 'traditional' free agents who had many bidders in an open market, but they other five are all players who were really signed off the scrap heap. Santiago, Gomez, Thames, Grilli, and Walker are all players that really few others wanted, and the same could be said for Monroe. That's nearly one quarter of the roster coming from the Island of Misfit Toys, almost unheard of for a postseason team.
The trades are also pretty remarkable overall when one adds them up:
That's eight players on the postseason roster for not a whole lot. Of the players traded away, only Jeff Weaver and Ramon Martinez would have a chance of making this roster, and that would be in minor roles at best.
While only four players on the team were drafted by the Tigers, and only six in total were developed solely by the organization, their roles in the Tigers turnaround this year have been much more than just the 24% of the roster they compose. The key to this team is their ability to prevent runs (they led the league in allowing only 4.17 runs per game), and according to VORP, Verlander was the eighth-best pitcher in the American League, while Zumaya ranked fourth among relievers in Adjusted Runs Prevented.
This is a uniquely constructed team getting some important contributions from unexpected places. The Tigers' front office deserves a remarkable amount of credit for the turnaround, but whether or not this is a sustainable model remains to be seen.
Unlike Detroit, Oakland has always been good. OK, not always, but they have had a winning record in each of the last eight years while reaching the post-season five times. Here's how their postseason roster was put together:
Jason Kendall (Trade, 11/04)
Kendall is what he is at this point, a punch-and-judy hitter with a decent average and a modicum of on-base skills. Not a horrible thing, but obviously not worth $11+ million. Oakland still has one more year of the albatross that is Kendall's contract, then Kurt Suzuki should be in line to take over. Suzuki should be a little more productive, better defensively, and obviously a helluva lot cheaper. Melhuse spent seven seasons in the Blue Jays system and didn't make the big leagues until he was 28, with the Dodgers. He spent a couple years in the Rockies system, and moved onto the Cubs before Oakland signed him. It was an astute grab, not that Melhuse is anything more than a backup catcher, yet his minor league numbers always showed enough power and on-base skills to be worth more of a shot than he got early in his career.
Eric Chavez (Draft, 1st round, 1996)
Chavez' career has been a strange one. The 10th overall pick in the 1996 draft out of a California high school, Chavez hit 18 home runs and drove in 100 runs in his full-season debut as a 19-year-old in the California League. The following year he exploded, batting .327 with 33 home runs in 529 at-bats split between Double- and Triple-A before his 21st birthday, and earning some consideration as the best prospect in the game. He struggled in his rookie season but was them among the top third basemen in the American League for five years before his recent dropoff occurred. Looking at the last three years, his slugging percentage has gone from .501 to .466 to .435, and the strange thing is he theoretically should be just hitting his stride, as he's still in his late 20s.
In 1999, Jimenez was one of the brightest shortstop prospects in the game after batting .327/.392/.492 at Triple-A Columbus as a 21-year-old. He had a harrowing car accident in the offseason and has never been the same, floating to the Padres, White Sox, Reds, and Rangers before getting signed this summer by Oakland. He's still a solid performer with plus speed and good contact skills, and he'll probably last a while in a utility role. Johnson lasted until the seventh round five years ago because he was a college senior and an unathletic first baseman, but at the same time, all he did was hit in the minors. This year was a disappointment, and it's important to note that at 27, he's not on the same time frame, nor is his leash as loose, as most second-year players. Kiger is obviously only on the roster because of the Mark Ellis injury. He's 26 years old, and this year was his third at Double-A, so that's all you need to know. Picking up Scutaro on waivers three years ago has proven to be an enormous move, as he's done yeoman's work filling in for an injured Bobby Crosby over the past couple of years. While on the surface he looks like a bit of a journeyman, Scutaro has consistently put up solid-to-very good numbers in the minors, with a career line of .297/.375/.439. He did very little with the Mets in 111 big league at-bats before getting waived and picked up by Oakland, but his performances at Triple-A Norfolk (850 OPS in 2002, 921 in 2003) should have convinced them that he has some sort of value. Scutaro turns 31 at the end of the year, and his play over the past three months has probably extended his career by at least two years.
Swisher has simply gotten better every year since being drafted 16th overall in 2002 out of Ohio State, and it wouldn't shock me in the least if he was Oakland's most productive hitter next season. While he rarely played there in the minors, A's officials always insisted he had Gold Glove potential at first base, and he'll likely stay there after beginning his career as an outfielder. Thomas was easily the free agent bargain of the year, and arguably the team's most valuable player in the regular season.
Hiram Bocachica (Free Agent, 2/06)
Bocachica was signed by the A's prior to the 2005 season, and then re-signed before this year. A first-round pick by the Expos (remember them?) as a shortstop out of Puerto Rico in 1994, Bocachica was always a decent offensive performer without a defensive home after committing 58 errors in his full-season debut. The Dodgers, Tigers and Mariners all attempted to find some way to turn him into a utility player, and to his credit he's developed a little bit of power to go with what is already plus speed and a good approach. At 30 years old, he's obviously running out of time, but he has enough skills to earn a few more shots at a bench job.
Bradley had a solid season, but the player he was traded for, Andre Ethier was a little bit better and still improving. One has to assume that the A's would like that one back. Kielty had an interesting entry into pro baseball. Undrafted out of college in 1998, he went to the Cape Cod League, earned MVP honors in front of hordes of scouts, and ended up being the subject of a free agent bidding war that was won by the Twins. Gaudy walk totals made him a bit of a stathead favorite early in his career, but an inability to consistently hit right-handed pitching has limited him to a bench role. The Athletics gave up Ted Lilly for him, which is a bit much. Since the trade, Kielty has a three-year WARP3 of 6.7, while Lilly is at 14.4.
Kotsay has been in decline offensively the last two years, but is still an outstanding defender in centerfield, as anybody who saw the fourth inning of Friday's game can attest to. At the same time, the A's did give up Ramon Hernandez to get him, which all relates to the Kendall conundrum. A first-round pick by the Mets in 1994 who was arguably the most productive bat on a Georgia Tech team that included Nomar Garciaparra and Jason Varitek, Payton is now in the 'professional hitter' phase of his career, and only cost the team Chad Bradford.
Starting Pitchers:
Rich Harden (Draft, 17th round, 2001)
You see Harden and you think that's a 17th-round steal, and in a way it is, but he was a draft-and-follow. Huge credit to Oakland for seeing the potential, but he cost more than a 17th-round pick normally does in the end, so he shouldn't be graded solely as such. He has the stuff to be one of the best pitchers in the league, but it's all going to come down to health, which remains a pretty big 'if' for Harden, who has thrown only 175 innings over the past two years. While it's hard to see him becoming a star, Haren is certainly an above-average starting pitcher, which is a rare enough commodity in itself. He's just one part of the lopsided Mark Mulder trade, which more than makes up for the disappointing returns from dealing Tim Hudson to Atlanta. Loaiza serves as an innings-eater, which is not enough considering his $6 million salary. Zito was the ninth overall pick in the 1999 draft, and the second college pitcher selected. The first was Kyle Snyder, so it all worked out (at least for Oakland) in the end.
Joe Blanton (Draft, 1st round, 2002)
Normally in the rotation, Blanton gave up a .322 batting average to opposing batters after the All-Star break this year, which is the primary reason he's the odd man out in the playoff rotation. While it took Blanton just over two years to get to the majors, his inability to maintain his high strikeout rate from his minor league days is a cause for concern. Calero is yet another piece of value from the Mulder trade, and top prospect Daric Barton has the potential to be more important to Oakland's future than either Calero or Haren.
Duchscherer took almost six years to reach the majors after being drafted in the 8th round by the Red Sox in 1996. His numbers in the minors were consistently good, with very low walk rates and decent strikeout rates, but his stuff was (and still is, frankly) unimpressive. Some are still at a loss as to how he gets it done, but uncanny command and a keen understanding of his craft seem to be the key. The Texas Rangers really screwed up twice in March of 2002, first they traded Duchscherer to Oakland for Luis Vizcaino, and instead of hanging on to Vizcaino, who has had a solid career as a reliever, they traded him three days later to the Brewers for Jesus Pena, who would never reach the majors again.
Acquired from Toronto in the offseason for minor league outfielder Dustin Majewski, Gaudin had a solid year out of the bullpen, and even picked up a couple of saves, but with more walks (40 unintentional), than strikeouts (36), it's hard count on him long-term. The A's traded for Kennedy (and reliever Jay Witasick) late in the 2005 season when they were desperate for arms, and luckily only gave up future bench player Omar Quintanilla and Eric Byrnes (whose future should also be on the bench). It's easily to assume that even the A's aren't thrilled that they've had to use Saarloos for 281 innings over the past two seasons. With an outstanding changeup but mid-80s velocity, Saarloss is forced to pitch backwards, which is exceptionally difficult at the big league level, and in these 281 innings, he's given up 319 hits, walked 107 and struck out just 105.
The A's bullpen works, but it's anything but a by-the-book relief corps. Nobody throws hard except for Street, and he doesn't throw with nearly as much oomph as your standard big league closer. That lack of classic power velocity dropped him to the 40th overall pick in 2004, despite the fact that he's one of the greatest amateur closers in the history of the game. The A's believed that Street's makeup and guile brought all of his pitches up a grade, and they've been proven correct.
The Breakdown:
Free Agent Signs: 5
Like the Tigers, the number next to the free agent category is highly deceptive. Loaiza is the only one to actually have a real long-term contract. Thomas cost Oakland a grand total of $500,000 this year, and the remaining three were guys looking for work as opposed to teams looking for them. For the most part, this team has been built by trades and draft picks, with one-fifth of the roster coming from their own first-round picks, an impressive total. The A's are not major players in the Latin American amateur market these days, and it shows, but it's surprising that they haven't worked harder there considering the fact that some believe there's a significant market inefficiency there.
In the end, the team is really a tribute to the ability of the front office to create a winning team on a limited budget by eliminating weaknesses, as opposed to creating overwhelming strengths.
Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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