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Nuba named Best Lebanese Restaurant in Vancouver
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Ei3 AV Club
You've probably never heard of us.
That's because for the last 20+ years we've been installing quarter million dollar audio visual solutions into corporate settings and high end homes. Over the years we offered our same level of service to our friends and family for an outstanding price. As our friends and family began to refer our exceptional work to others we began to offer the friends and family deal to their friends and family. What has come to be known as the Ei3 AV Club.
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Retail stores often charge double what they pay for consumer items. When it comes to home electronics, the box stores may charge a fair price on big ticket items but it is the small items, cables, TV mounts, and other accessories where they rake in their profit. Often charging ten times what an item costs them. We offer an unbeatable price on cables, installation, and only sell the best TV mounts available for the same price point.
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Sold Out $22.95
So you have a Powermonkey Explorer 2 and want to attach it to your bike, then the bike mount for the Explorer 2 is the perfect option.
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Cable length is 150 mmView full product details


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Successful grant proposal writing is a fundamental basis to fund a career in research. There are plenty of national and international funding programmes with different funding schemes. Each scheme has its individual context and thematic focus, eligibility and funding rules, submission and evaluation process, and evaluation criteria. Thus, the detailed features and aspects of a successful proposal in one funding scheme are naturally differing from those of a successful proposal in another funding scheme. However, the process of how to work out these details is a common denominator to the different funding schemes. It requires skills way beyond the ability to work out a research idea in detail.The overall proposal writing starts with the generation of a new research idea and the identification of an appropriate funding scheme. This requires knowledge on funding programmes and their scientific, political or societal background. Here, documents and professionals from contact points and funding authorities may be of much help.For an excellent grant proposal, it is necessary to match the research idea with the evaluators' view on what is wanted by the funding scheme and what is considered fit for funding. This usually requires work on the details of the idea and the specific research context.After this has been concluded, the work on the actual project and proposal can be started. A concept has to be developed, ideas, workplan and the approach have to be visualised, the budget needs to be planned and the overall proposal has to be structured and formulated. If other project partners or institutions are involved, the submission of documents has to be coordinated.Therefore, the objective of this workshop is, that students obtain an overview on funding opportunities, understand the core aspects of winning grants and know how to adapt the proposal writing process to their funding scheme of choice.Depending on the duration of the training, exercises are focused on different process steps and required skills. [more]
Applying for a position in research requires not only a CV, a letter of motivation, a list of publications and references but also a research statement. They are targeted to the job advertisement and the mission of the research group and its hosting research organisation:First, we will understand the function of the different parts of an application to a research position such as letter of motivation, CV, research statement and references. Participants are asked to bring a job application, so that they can receive a targeted feedback during the second day of the workshop.We will then define the different core elements of a research agenda, their objectives in the context of the job application and the key elements they should cover.Participants will then write their own research statement. Based on these examples we will look into approaches for a targeted motivation of the research agenda, the targeted communication of the background and current research as well as a convincing set-up of the research agenda.Depending on time and interests of the participants, we will use the Researcher Development Framework by Vitae UK to investigate into skills and competencies. Based on these a strategy will be developed to convincingly justify the principal investigator's expertise. [more]
Annual retreat of the IMPRS PhD students with workshops offered by the PhD candidates for the PhD candidates! Attendance at this retreat is obligatory for all students. [more]
Being a scientist means one must have many skills and talents – intimidatingly so sometimes. And writing papers is one of the most important ones. It's the currency into which we turn our research and also the most important means for the community to judge us by. Luckily, like most aspects of science it's a skill that we can improve and this course will help you with this. [more]
Reading is the key qualification for academic work and in professional life - we often spend several hours a day. Yet, reading training usually stops at Primary school, and nowadays we are ill equipped for dealing with the mass of information confronting us. Our priority is text comprehension – which is only possible by increasing speed and developing a flexible reading strategy. [more]
This activity-based workshop led by theatre professionals provides participants the opportunity to perfect their public-speaking skills, to improve non-verbal communication and the ability to listen and react generously. Participants are required to prepare a three to five minute overview of their work incorporating also the use of a slide, providing a basis for applying the practical aims of the workshop, which are to communicate the importance and relevance of the work and the core message in the talk. [more]
This workshop targets PhD students and Post-doctoral fellows who have taken Conference Presentation part I, and who wish to further improve their presentation skills and focus in particular on the context of conferences. [more]
Linear models (LM) and linear mixed models (LME): Linear Regression, multiple Regression, ANOVA, ANCOVA, model selection (group work), linear mixed models, work on own data [more]
Social network analysis is becoming a widely used tool for studying social behaviour of animals. However, getting started with animal social networks is often challenging and this half-day student conference + workshop will give a first insight in social network analysis. [more]
Generalised linear models and generalised linear mixed models: Binomial model, Poission model, GLMM and work on own data [more]
This two-day workshop enables life scientists to to write clearly and with impact!The participants learn how to construct a "take-home" message that tells the story of their research, choose words that communicate their science clearly, and structure their paper into a flowing narrative. [more]
Guided work on own data. [more]
Learning to write and respond to reviewers' comments are vital skills for early-career researchers to master if they wish to become established scientists. However, these skills are often neglected, forcing researchers to learn them by trial and error. By learning to address reviewers' comments, young researchers not only increase their chances of getting their work published but also learn to think critically about their own research. Equally, by becoming better reviewers, researchers can raise their profiles with journal editors. Becoming an invited reviewer for a prestigious journal is an opportunity for researchers to enhance their academic reputation and improve their career prospects. [more]


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As if going to Oxbridge were not enough of a boost to your life chances, a digital version of the old boy network can now help you that bit more. Facebook.com, a social networking website, is sweeping across the servers of Britain's posher universities, assisting students with everything from checking out potential partners to impressing employers.
Launched in the US by Harvard roommates in February 2004, Facebook has 7.5 million users, who can register only if they belong to a supported school, college or company. In the UK, 41 universities have joined up so far, but it is proving especially popular at Oxford, Cambridge, University College London and the London School of Economics. Some estimates claim 80% of Oxford students have a Facebook profile.
"I don't use any other networking site," says Roger Waite, who left Oxford this year after studying history. "Facebook is certainly more secure than the likes of MySpace [the youth socialising site] and its division into communities makes it less of a vast proposition. Sneaking a quick look at the profile of someone you've just met, or trying to work out exactly what you did last night from the photos someone has posted of you, makes it incredibly addictive."
Facebook - which lets users upload a personal profile including a real name, photograph and interests - was ranked in a survey last month as the third most important thing to students in the US - behind beer and iPods, but above sex. And it is becoming just as addictive in the UK.
Its selling point is that it is institution-specific, so it provides a sense of an enclosed, exclusive community. If you do not have an email account from Cambridge University, you cannot get into the Facebook for students at Cambridge.
It allows members to list friends at their own university, friends in other networks and Facebook groups to which they belong - from the I Check My Facebook on Work-Only Library Computers And There's Nothing You Can Do To Stop Me group to the Tea Appreciation Society.
All in all, it's like a safe, clean, ordered version of the sometimes messy, but enjoyably irreverent, MySpace. Instead of listing your penchant for post-punk bands, Facebook profiles are more likely to mention your political persuasion, degree subject and love of cricket.
Another popular use of the site is as a matchmaker. Couples vet each other online before a date, and there's a certain etiquette surrounding the status of their love life, thanks to a relationship indicator that denotes stages including "single", "it's complicated" and "in an open relationship".
"People will get really offended if their ex doesn't spend sufficient time on 'it's complicated' before moving on to 'single'," mocks Katherine Maltby, a classics student at Oxford University, who has so far resisted the pull of Facebook because she is put off by the very public display of personalities and preferences. "It's the difference between having subtle relationships with people and having relationships where everything is on a screen and everyone can see what you are doing."
Furthermore, Maltby says, it is hugely distracting and can take up time and emotional energy. "I know a lot of my friends who sit down to work and then end up on Facebook for a couple of hours," she says.
Despite the site's claim to exclusivity, "people will still add a lot of friends they don't know very well to look cool", says Maltby. "It works for people who are social butterflies, but I find the way it categorises friends really vile. Everyone is competitive at Oxford, because everyone is so ambitious, so even your social life becomes part of the competition."
Maltby finds the self-satisfied tone of much of the site trying. "There's a pressure to be as silly and cool as you possibly can. It's not a place for nerds." She says she has come under pressure from friends to register. Without a profile, she misses out on in-jokes and aspects of the university's social life. "It has become a world of its own. If you don't use it every day, people resent the fact that you are not socialising with them on Facebook."
More serious, however, are allegations that the website is being used for services other than forging friendships. A group called Pro-Test has warned that militant animal rights campaigners could target students on Facebook who have indicated support on their profiles for the animal-testing labs being built at Oxford University. Waite says the university authorities have also had to pull some member profiles after instances of bullying, while Maltby has heard stories of people sending details of a person's Facebook antics - drunken photos, slurs on their "wall" (where members can swap messages) - to prospective employers.
Spoof profile
University staff have also experienced some negative effects. The Dean of St Catherine's college at Oxford was added to the website without his consent after a student created a spoof profile. Simon Parker, a senior lecturer at the University of York, told the New Statesman that, during the recent dispute over lecturers' pay, his mobile phone number was posted on Facebook, with the instruction to students to give him a call if they felt they had been "fucked over" by the "lazy bastards in the AUT".
In the US, some students have been expelled from college after harassing others on the site, while campus police have been accused of monitoring students' extra-curricular activities, such as under-age drinking. Politicians and businesses, meanwhile, have cottoned on to the fact that Facebook is a hunting ground for the young, educated middle classes.
But does the charge that Facebook is elitist really stand up? Alex Burmaster, European internet analyst at Neilsen// NetRatings, draws an analogy with the social networking site Bebo. Immediately after its launch, it was taken up by young people, although this was not necessarily the founder's intention. From then on, these early adopters shaped the site, and it continued to attract a similar demographic.
"That could be the same for Facebook," says Burmaster. "If people think it is only populated by students at Oxbridge, they might stay away from it." Thereby increasing the site's popularity with the original demographic.
"I'm not sure Facebook does foster elitism," says Waite. "After all, it is being rolled out to all UK universities bit by bit. And I don't think the real old-boy network would ever deign to create a Facebook profile."
Maltby agrees: "No one would seriously offer someone a job because they saw them on Facebook."


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Repligen Corporation (NASDAQ: RGEN) and Assembly Biosciences (NASDAQ:ASMB) are both small-cap medical companies, but which is the superior investment? We will compare the two companies based on the strength of their valuation, profitability, dividends, analyst recommendations, earnings, institutional ownership and risk.
Valuation and Earnings
This table compares Repligen Corporation and Assembly Biosciences' revenue, earnings per share (EPS) and valuation.
|Gross Revenue
|Price/Sales Ratio
|Earnings Per Share
|Price/Earnings Ratio
|Repligen Corporation
|$113.32 million
|$29.54 million
|Assembly Biosciences
|$3.04 million
|-$50.92 million
Repligen Corporation has higher revenue and earnings than Assembly Biosciences. Assembly Biosciences is trading at a lower price-to-earnings ratio than Repligen Corporation, indicating that it is currently the more affordable of the two stocks.
This table compares Repligen Corporation and Assembly Biosciences' net margins, return on equity and return on assets.
|Net Margins
|Return on Equity
|Return on Assets
|Repligen Corporation
|Assembly Biosciences
Volatility and Risk
Repligen Corporation has a beta of 1.18, indicating that its share price is 18% more volatile than the S&P 500. Comparatively, Assembly Biosciences has a beta of 0.84, indicating that its share price is 16% less volatile than the S&P 500.
Insider and Institutional Ownership
97.9% of Repligen Corporation shares are owned by institutional investors. Comparatively, 72.3% of Assembly Biosciences shares are owned by institutional investors. 1.5% of Repligen Corporation shares are owned by insiders. Comparatively, 19.6% of Assembly Biosciences shares are owned by insiders. Strong institutional ownership is an indication that endowments, hedge funds and large money managers believe a company will outperform the market over the long term.
Analyst Ratings
This is a summary of recent ratings and recommmendations for Repligen Corporation and Assembly Biosciences, as reported by MarketBeat.
|Sell Ratings
|Hold Ratings
|Buy Ratings
|Strong Buy Ratings
|Rating Score
|Repligen Corporation
|Assembly Biosciences
Repligen Corporation currently has a consensus target price of $46.00, suggesting a potential upside of 19.48%. Assembly Biosciences has a consensus target price of $35.00, suggesting a potential upside of 4.48%. Given Repligen Corporation's higher probable upside, analysts plainly believe Repligen Corporation is more favorable than Assembly Biosciences.
Repligen Corporation beats Assembly Biosciences on 10 of the 13 factors compared between the two stocks.
Repligen Corporation Company Profile
Repligen Corporation is a bioprocessing company. The Company is focused on the development, manufacture and commercialization of products used to improve the interconnected phases of the biological drug manufacturing process. The Company's portfolio includes protein products, chromatography products, and filtration products. It provides Protein A ligands, a component of Protein A chromatography resins (media) used in the purification of virtually all monoclonal antibody (mAb)-based drugs on the market or in development. Its chromatography portfolio includes various products used in the downstream purification and quality control of biological drugs. Its OPUS pre-packed chromatography columns (PPCs) are used in the purification of clinical-stage biologics. Its filtration products include XCell Alternating Tangential Flow (ATF) Systems and Sius tangential flow filtration (TFF) cassettes. Sius TFF cassettes are used to concentrate clinical and commercial-stage biologic drugs.
Assembly Biosciences Company Profile
Assembly Biosciences, Inc. is a biotechnology company. The Company is engaged in developing two platform programs, such as a class of oral therapeutics for the treatment of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, and a class of oral synthetic live therapeutics, which are designed to restore health to a dysbiotic microbiome. It has discovered various core protein Allosteric Modulators (CpAMs), which are small molecules that directly target and allosterically modulate the HBV core (HBc) protein. Its Microbiome Program consists of an integrated platform that includes a strain identification and selection process, methods for strain isolation and growth under current good manufacturing practice conditions, and a delivery system, GEMICEL, which allows for targeted oral delivery of live biologic and conventional therapies to the lower gastrointestinal (GI) tract. The lead product candidate from this platform, AB-M101, is in development for the treatment of clostridium difficile-infections.
Receive News & Ratings for Repligen Corporation Daily - Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts' ratings for Repligen Corporation and related companies with MarketBeat.com's FREE daily email newsletter.


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Hi there Shabby Creek friends! It's Laura from Inspiration for Moms back to welcome you to the first day of October with a sweet Fall dessert recipe. These apple doughnuts are the perfect way to enjoy this colorful new season.
To me, nothing says Fall quite like sweet, apple cider. It's the star ingredient in my Baked Apple Cider Doughnuts. Honesty, I've never been a big fan of doughnuts…until now! Traditional fried doughnuts always seemed too greasy for me. But my baked version tastes like a moist, apple cake. The glaze on top is a treat as well with its tender kiss of apple cider. Trust me, it's a challenge to stop at just one!
Did you know there's a neat little trick to get a smooth looking doughnut? Fill a large ziploc bag full of batter and cut off one corner tip. Then pipe the dough into the cavities of the pan. It works like magic to make the perfect shape and it couldn't be easier.
My apple doughnuts are gluten-free which was a huge treat for my husband. I think he ate about ten the first day I made them. 😉 But if gluten-free is not your concern, you can easily substitute all-purpose flour and still enjoy every tasty bite.
I hope you will give these doughnuts a try and let me know what you think. I'll be back next month with a pumpkin treat that you can't beat. Until then, enjoy this beautiful season and soak it all in. I know I will. 😉
Subscribe via EMAIL | Follow me on FACEBOOK | Follow me on GOOGLE+
Baked Apple Cider Doughnuts
Prep Time: 20 minutes Cook Time: 7-9 minutes
Makes 18 doughnuts
- 2 cups apple cider; boiled down to 2/3 cups and cooled
- 8 tablespoons butter, at room temperature
- 1 cup sugar
- 2 eggs, at room temperature
- 1/2 cup buttermilk
- 3 1/2 cups all purpose gluten-free flour (can substitute with standard all purpose flour)
- 2 teaspoons baking powder
- 1 teaspoon baking soda
- 1/2 teaspoon ground cinnamon
- 1/8 teaspoon nutmeg
- 1/2 teaspoon salt
- 2 cups apple cider
- 2 tablespoons butter, unsalted
- 1 1/2 cups confectioners sugar
Preheat your oven to 425 degrees. In a stand mixer, cream the butter. Add sugar and cream together. Add eggs, one at a time and mix well. Add buttermilk and reduced apple cider and mix to combine.
In a separate bowl, mix together the dry ingredients: flour, baking powder, baking soda, cinnamon, nutmeg and salt. Slowly add the dry ingredients with the wet ingredients and mix until they are fully combined.
Spray your doughnut pan with cooking spray and fill the cavities about 2/3 full. Place in the oven for 7-9 minutes or until they spring back when gently touched. Remove doughnuts from oven and allow to sit in pan for 5 minutes. Then remove from pan and place on wire rack to cool completely. Repeat with remaining batter.
For glaze: In a small saucepan, bring apple cider to a boil and reduce to 6 tablespoons. Transfer to a small bowl and then stir in butter until melted. Stir in enough confectioners sugar to make a glaze consistency. Dip each doughnut half way, allow excess to drip off. Place on wire rack and let stand until the glaze is set.


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Police are appealing for information to identify a woman who walked into the Royal Gwent Hospital, Newport in the early hours of this morning (Thursday August 7th)
She attended the Accident and Emergency Department at the hospital just after midnight although it is not known how she got there. She has no identification documents on her and can't recall any of her personal details.
She is described as between 60 and 70 years old, about five feet four inches tall and of large build. She was wearing a denim skirt, purple cardigan and a pink and white striped top. She was carrying a black handbag with a purse and cash inside it but nothing else. She is described as having a west country accent and is believed to be physically fit and healthy.
If anyone has information about her identity they are asked to call Gwent Police on 101 quoting log 10 7/8/14
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Santa Barbara City College case studies
Think about what career is best suited for you, and where you want to study. Request more information now.
Think about what career is best suited for you, and where you want to study. Request more information now.
Think about what career is best suited for you, and where you want to study. Request more information now.
Information about Santa Barbara City College case studies, and registering for elective lectures. Which college degrees give you the best chances of finding employment after graduation? Given a business management degree, you may find your niche in operations, human resources, sales, or advertising. Concentrating on Santa Barbara City College case studies, for example, you may gain an advantage in corporate recruiting being done on-campus. Check with the business administration department for course registration deadlines, and project management program requirements. Please use the form above to request admissions info for Santa Barbara City College.
There are a variety of approaches to project management. Critical chain management (CCPM) puts more emphasis on the resources required to execute tasks, while event chain methodology focuses on managing events that will affect scheduling. Regardless of the method you choose, the Small Business Administration advises listing out specific project objectives, create a working timeline of both materials and personnel, and monitor all required costs as the project proceeds. Project control means keeping on-track, on-time, and under budget.
A project manager, therefore, is responsible for determining project requirements, and managing all elements of the task. Project management software is available that will help to organize both yourself and your team. Depending on the sophistication of the software, it may include estimating and cost control, decision-making trees, and a workflow analysis. Over the course of any project, the requirements may change mid-stream, without prior notice. Changes can be the result of necessary design modifications, altered site conditions, material availability or lack thereof. Finally, a formal, compliance-based audit may be conducted by upper management after completion. Beyond major requirements within the business administration department, you may consider North Central Michigan College online undergraduate classes as a complementary elective to your primary course of study.
Utility Design Coordinator I
NV Energy
Focuses on the identification of customer needs regarding project specific electric utility design requirements, standards, policies and establishes project..
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City of San Diego
Supervising Management Analyst positions plan, assign, supervise, review and evaluate the work of subordinate professional and subprofessional staff..
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The University of Pittsburgh
The Coordinator supervises two professional staff ( SORC Business Manager and Student Government Board Administrative Assistant) and student office assistants..
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United Way of Dane County
Work closely with sponsoring companies in the business community. For more information, or to apply, please email a resume and a cover letter to email@example.com..
18 hours ago Bilingual Call Center Representative
Perdue, Brandon, Fielder, Collins and Mott L.L.P.
Business hours are Monday-Friday, 8:30am-5pm . PBFCM has been in business since 1970. We currently have 11 offices across Texas with over 50 attorneys and more..
3 days ago Junior Business Analyst - Entry Level (m/f)
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SIG is seeking a self-motivated and proactive entry level Junior Business Analyst to join the Philadelphia, PA, North America team.
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MRI Technologist
- Employer
- Washington Hospital Center
- Location
- Washington D.C.
- Posted
- Dec 01, 2016
- Closes
- Jun 02, 2017
- Function
- Other
- Industry
- Healthcare
- Career Level
- Experienced (Non-Manager)
- Hours
- Full Time
Performs diagnostic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) exams according to established protocols. Provides efficient and effective patient care in the production of high quality diagnostic examinations. Associate's degree or one to three years formal training in an American Medical Association accredited school of Radiologic Technology is required. Approximately four to six months of job related experience and/or successful completion of a formal MRI educational training program. Registration with the American Registry of Radiologic Technologists (ARRT) is required within one year of date of hire.


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Dr. Goliath is awesome.My son is austic and you can't even tell it.He got treatment fast and had all the early therapy he needed.Now my son is over the top in school... Read more
Sat on hold for an hour just to be transferred and brushed off. Son has a temp of 104 that won't go down. Do yourself a favor and find a different doctor.
We stick with Dr Willis for several years after Dr Leisen left the area. He was kind & patient & I was always impressed with the time he took to answer questions me ... Read more
Both of my children are patients of Dr. Verma, she is great. She is always there no matter what day and time of the day/night. I would recommend her to anybody who w... Read more
I love this DR!!...My two boys go to him and he is great....I now live in Charleston but I will not mind the drive to take my new baby to his office... the only prob... Read more
Dr. Upton is great with my kids .. My kids think very highly of her. She is a great Doctor and we feel very comfortable with her... We highly recommend her.
Dr. Jones is a wonderful doctor! My youngest has been in PICU for asthma and not knowing if it was a virus that caused it so he always treats her progressively! He c... Read more
We respect Dr. Childers and his knowledge. He has a good disposition and our children like him.
My 1 yr. old son was extremely ill for several months. Our pediatrician was terrible, and would tell us "we see it all the time" and kept putting him back on a nebul... Read more
Dr. Acklin has been treating our children for almost 12 yrs. We love her. We love her staff and her P.A. is the best! She always puts us and our children first and ... Read more
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Please take the time to read these beautiful words written from the heart of a mother, then forward and share with others…..
written by Tara Collyer – 24th February 2015
This "open letter" is, of course, not representative of all parents of children with special needs, but I've tried to make it a fair sampling of the views I've heard expressed from other parents. I know I won't live to see Utopia and my children probably won't either, but the laws that are being passed today providing inclusion of children with special needs into mainstream schools give educators the opportunity to make this a generation of better people. And that's one step closer!
You can't walk a mile in my shoes, but you can take a short journey with me and I can show you some scenes from my life. I don't ordinarily open up to strangers like this, but you're not really a stranger. You're the person responsible for my child's education – a principal, a teacher, a guidance officer, a special needs teacher or a special teacher aide. The object of this is not to make you feel sorry for me. Far from it. It's to try to help you understand me and my child. If you can understand something about the places I've been, you may be able to understand where I'm coming from today.
This first window shows you a death. It's not a typical death. We didn't get flowers or have calling hours. It was a very private affair and not too many people even realized it at the time. This was the death of a dream.
You see, I always thought I'd grow up, marry and have a couple of "normal" children. When this death occurred, and it doesn't matter whether it happened when my child was first born, or as he began to develop. My whole life changed. I hadn't planned to have a child who had to use a wheelchair, or who would never be able to hear or see, or who couldn't "pass" a standard I.Q. test. I was forced to change my whole outlook on the future. It may have taken a while to go through all the stages I had to go through to get to where I am today. There was grief. A lot of that. There was a lot of denial too. I had to get through those two stages before I could accept what had happened and learn to accept my child and the limitations he would put on my dreams. I had to come up with a new dream.
This next window shows me after I've learned to accept my child for who he is. I've learned to take all the backward glances and tasteless remarks in stride. I've seen ignorance from some people I used to think were intelligent and I've met some really wonderful people who I never would have known, had my child been "normal". I've had to learn how to make people understand that my child is a child first and has a disability second.
I've seen miracles too. I've seen the first step the doctors said would never happen and I've seen the light of recognition in my child's eyes when he finally grasped the "meaning of something". And I've seen sunsets you wouldn't believe once I had to really look at them and explain them to my blind child. What may seem ordinary to you has taken on a whole new significance for me.
I've learned a whole new language too. It's called "medicalese". Doctors and therapists tend to speak in words you don't hear every day. At first, I thought I'd never be able to keep all the terms and "-isms" straight, but I speak it fairly fluently now. I'm beginning to learn "teacherese" now. You use a lot of abbreviations and numbers, but I know I can learn your language too.
Even though I've accepted my child, this next window will show you my fears for my child's future. I realize it's going to take a lot more effort if my child is to lead a fulfilling life. Learning may be difficult for him and in some cases, impossible, but I've really been trying to make his life as normal as possible. I try to focus on the abilities he has and I try to make him feel worthwhile.
I realize there are some things that my child can't do yet and he may never be able to do some things. Sometimes, I tend to focus too much on what he can do and not on what he can't do, but it helps me and my family. Some days I seem to be taking three steps backward for every one forward.
You may only see the bad things about my child. It may not seem fair to you to spend more time with him or do things differently for one child, when you have a classroom full of children who learn things in standard ways. My child may disrupt your class and may not seem to be learning much. I don't expect you to ignore other students for his sake. I don't want him forgotten in a back class room with all the other "different" kids either, although he may have to spend some time in a smaller classroom with more individual attention. My goal is to make his life as normal as I possibly can, and being around regular kids helps. It will take some understanding on both our parts to work this out. Perhaps some of your brighter students could help my child in some areas. You'll be teaching them about responsibility and they'll learn acceptance. They'll view children with special needs as children first and disabled second. They may learn to accept my child before you do.
As a parent, I know I'm not perfect. I make mistakes every day. I realize teachers are only human too. I also remember the time when some of my teachers were up there with God, in my estimation. They had such an impact on my life! Your lives probably aren't as worry free or stress free as I used to think and my child may only add to a day that's too full and too underpaid. If you at least make the effort to try to treat my child as a person, I know how he will view you. Sit next to God for a while.
My attitude may not be the best you've seen lately. I may already have had some run-ins with the "system" before I ever talk to you. I may come on too forcefully and seem too demanding. Maybe I've had to be to get services for my child. Maybe my sister-in-law has excluded my child and me from every family get together she's had since I've had a "disabled" child. Maybe my husband isn't supportive. Or maybe the professionals I've dealt with before have done everything they could to help me. Maybe I'll assume that you will too, and I won't remember all the hard lessons I've learned along the way. Or I may remember each one too vividly. I may be a combination of all these feelings. Whatever the case, I am just a normal person who wants the best for my child.
I probably already know that my son won't grow up to be the captain of the football team and my daughter won't be a School Captain, but that doesn't mean that I don't have dreams for them. I've just substituted other dreams for those I've lost. We all harbour some pretty unrealistic expectations for our children and I'm no different than any other parent.
If I seem to want too much from you, I don't mean to. I may have a lot on my mind. I may not have totally accepted the direction my life has taken; it sometimes takes years for a parent to get to that point of acceptance. That's really not too hard to understand when you realize that I lived with that dream for most of my life, whereas I've lived with my "reality" for a lot shorter period. I may even be feeling cheated because my life seems so different from yours. There may be a lot of resentment in me. Or I could just be tired of fighting the battle. You may have a better education than me and you may feel more qualified to make decisions about how and what my child will learn.
In most cases, you are the expert. But if you feel I'm realistic and I've accepted my child's limitations, there will be instances when I will know what will work best. In that case, I am the expert. I've learned some things that you should be thankful you've never had to learn.
If you take all the things you've seen through my windows into consideration, you may understand me and my child better. If we work together, maybe we can do what I pray for each night. That is to give my child as many opportunities as possible to lead a normal life, in a world that isn't fair.


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It was nearly a year ago to the day that I sat in this similar booth overlooking the river and the city waiting for his arrival. For websites that cannot be readily dated, the animal species found there might be compared to properly-dated species from other websites. I've found that the trickiest thing about dating a brooch is not essentially the kind of clasp, but an altered back. These are questions that shall be answered within the next submit in The Relationship Collection! Sometimes we hold a specific amount in your card until the verification course of is complete, once it is confirmed that your protected from all types of bad misconducts in relationship sites, the quantity shall be returned to your account. Patterns of dating are altering in China, with elevated modernization bumping into conventional ways. My downside was (and still is, to some extent, that's why I am here) entirely in my head, and that simply didn't come out in a web-based dating profile. Look, an actual relationship does require human beings to speak a couple of break-up.
It is a good time to determine what you want out of life as well as out of your relationship. Welcome to Radio Metropolis Dating – the web dating website the place real singles meet and form relationships. To avail our HookUp courting License & Meetup Verified Badge observe this URL : HERE You can see Actual Base Story for you to discover ou deeper meaning of Meetup Verified Badge. Simply go to the Parship Journal for basic dating recommendation and even submit your personal questions if you happen to like. Do an Web seek for info on the definition in your state or nation. I am going to make use of each free advertising on the market earlier than I begin pouring cash into television commercials. Online relationship has fundamentally modified the way in which people search for love and friendship.
I've discovered that on-line dating is no different than Craigslist, however is the feminine model; that is, folks go there to play games and develop experiences & seduction expertise. So I stopped attempting at on-line relationship in Ann Arbor and as a substitute to decided to dedicate my energy into my information science internship and backpacking (perhaps OKC for mountaineering tinder!) this summer. We both go to the same faculty and started courting in the transition from the autumn to spring semester. Chat Random is completely free and doesn't require you to register an account as a way to get began instantly which makes for an easy signal-up process. The way in which your ex contacts you after the breakup can let you know if he is nonetheless craving a relationship with you. Nearly three years of relationship and writing and I'm nearer to going cat lady crazy than looking for tile.
I met my husband the quaint approach, however his older brother met his current girlfriend over the web and so they have been relationship for over 5 years now and stay together. Meet all kinds of attractive single teams of women and men: Christian singles, Catholic, Jewish singles, sexy girls, cute guys, single mother and father & extra. The actual kicker was when I found that in the morning I wake up, check my email, twitter, facebook and on-line relationship websites before I ever get away from bed.
I also consider that each men and women are free to play the sector," that is, till a pair reaches the point where they each need a monogamous relationship. I spotted the indicators to finally remove myself from on-line dating and do it the true and right approach. Even when the boyfriend has no real interest in an open relationship with this girl, she's going to at all times battle with having complete belief in him as a result of the bottom-line is he was with one other lady after they started their relationship. In between playing video games, I was nonetheless logging on to courting sites, looking for a particular type of girl.


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Imagine the scenario in which you want to die naturally, but your family refused to let you go.
Recently, I watched a documentary on Talking Point with regards to 'Good Death' (you can watch the video here); basically there was this man, Mr Kwok Fook Chuen, who had renal failure and refused dialysis option. So naturally, the outcome of his choice is imminent death. Of course this triggered immerse grief for his wife, but she eventually accepts that it was his choice and honoring his wishes became central to their shared values.
I am also pretty sure that it wasn't easy for Mr Kwok to arrive at his decision – his family probably wanted him to stay alive through the dialysis option – hence, it takes much understanding, communication and openness to ensure that his decision get respected.
I recalled having to do clinical supervision about a case, (of which the details are confidential of course), but the theme of the case is similar to the one above, revolved around the ambivalent feeling of (i) refusing treatment to end a perceived poorer quality of life verses (ii) continued treatment so as to continue living.
There is really no easy answer; for such decisions are irrevocable and would naturally be emotionally daunting to execute. In many cases, individual needs are also enmeshed and blurred – alongside with family, cultural and spiritual dimensions. Sometimes, life doesn't even seem to belong to us anymore because someone else wants us to live for them.
It is easy for the fighters to claim the path of continued treatment because they hold the value of overcoming personal battles with high regards. However, life is certainly a war that we will all lose ultimately. We could only seek to win those small skirmishers… knowing fully that someday, all our troops will be expanded and then it is game over.
Perhaps the key lies in having genuine intimate conversation with one another and the acceptance that some people do not value being a fighter as much as others. Perhaps they desire a quality of life that is pain-free with less physical suffering and this is equally a noble pursuit.
Frankly, both decisions require immerse courage; either acknowledging that death is inevitable with the wisdom to focus on the present or to be the proud warrior who charge alone towards an army of relentless undead soldiers… attempting to secure one more day of victory.
When they say one man's meat is another man's poison – perhaps, we do have different appetite for the type of suffering we are willing to stomach.


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Verizon Set to Launch Augmented Reality Contest Featuring 'D:COM' Robots and DROID Brand
Verizon and the @DroidLanding Twitter account will soon be launching an augmented reality contest using the famed DROID brand. Apparently it's also going to involved a bunch of robots, go figure.
To get everyone ready, Verizon has posted a promo video (below) via their YouTube channel and through the DroidLanding Twitter account. There's really no mention about the content itself or how people will participate, but it's likely Verizon will release more information soon. As the promo video states the contest will kick off sometime this month.
It looks like there will be an accompanying app of some kind, probably allowing you to interact with the robots starred in the video. Expect to be able to take photos with the robots and possibly experience them digitally reacting to your presence through the exclusive app. Of course that's just pure speculation on my part at this point, because Verizon and @DroidLanding have yet to confirm anything.
It's possible that the contest is based on this existing D:COM game or maybe that is the actual app for the contest.
Hopefully there will be some pretty cool prizes for the contest, like maybe a new smartphone or tablet? Unfortunately, since the contest is being hosted by Verizon, it will probably be Verizon themed prizes (that goes without saying). I'm sure many of you just groaned or let out a sigh of exasperation.
What do you think about the contest? Do have any predictions for what's coming? What do you think of those robots in the promo video?


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Sell Your Art Online With Your Own Unique Website
If you are serious about selling your art online, then you should be serious about developing your own website. I am not referring to those free website builders your Internet Service Provider gives you or any other free website providers. I am talking about a professional website with your own unique domain name: www.yourname.com.
There are good reasons why you should never use a free design service. The company that provides the free service owns your website space and they can do whatever they wish with your site, namely advertise on it.
There is nothing more unprofessional than unrelated banner advertising and popup windows that are usually associated with free websites. Not only are they annoying, but they also distract visitors from your art.
There is also the risk that your website provider may go out of business. That free site you spent all that time promoting is gone and your efforts were in vain.
With your own unique domain name, the worst-case scenario is you have to change hosting accounts. Your domain name remains unchanged and your customers can still reach your site.
Having your own website with a unique domain name tells your potential customers that you are a professional and serious about your business. It also looks wonderful on business cards!
Can you imagine handing out business cards at art shows or to other interested people with this printed on your cards: http://www.somefreewebsite.com/artists/yourgallery/index.html. This is unprofessional and it's difficult for your customers to remember.
Having your own unique website offers convenience for you and potential customers. For instance, lets say you are traveling to another state, or another part of the world for that matter. You meet someone who is interested in seeing your work, but you don't have your portfolio with you. You may have just lost a potential customer. If you have a nice business card, with your website address printed on it, the potential customer can simply visit your website at his or her convenience to view your work, and it doesn't matter if they live around the corner or on the other side of the world! Your website is available 24 hours a day 7 days a week.
Now that you see the benefits of having your own website, you will need to take the first step, and that is to register your domain name (www.yourname.com).
Registering your own domain name is easy and extremely affordable today. My recommendation is to register through a site called Godaddy.com. They are amongst the lowest priced domain registration services online at around $9 for the entire year (this was the price at the time of writing this article).
Once you register your domain name, its time to begin your website design. You can either hire a web designer or do it yourself. Whichever method you choose here are some general guidelines:
My advice is to keep your site clean and simple. Do not load your site with lots of fancy graphics or long multimedia presentations. These only annoy and distract visitors away from your art and increase the amount of time it takes for pages to download.
Make your site navigation is easy to follow and consistent throughout your entire site.
Make it easy for your visitors to contact you. Put a "contact" or "contact us" link on every page in clear view.
Avoid animated graphics, moving text, or other animated features on your website.
Make all of the links on your site standard colors and underlined. Blue is for unvisited links, purple for visited.
Resources for do it yourself web design - There are many places online where you can learn HTML and web design completely free. One of my favorite sites is W3 Schools - http://www.w3schools.com/. W3 Schools is a wonderful site packed with lots of great information on HTML and web design. The tutorials are informative and very easy to follow.
If you are not the type who enjoys learning online, there are also a handful of great books you can purchase. "Learning Web Design" by Jennifer Niederst is a book that gives you a good all around introduction to web design. There are other great books. Just head over to a site like Amazon and a do a search for "beginner web design". Find books that have good feedback ratings from customers. Read through the feedback to make sure the book is the right fit for your experience level.
I hope this article has got you excited about getting your own website. If you have any questions about anything covered in this article, do not hesitate to contact me. Please send your question to: email@example.com.
Be sure and head over to http://www.sellingartnews.com, for more great articles and tips on selling your art.
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text: I picked up a ReplayTV 5040 with the rebates that are currently going on, and so far I'm very disappointed in the picture quality. Everything has a yellow tint to it, and the picture is much brighter. I'n order to make it watchable, I have to change tint & brightness quite a bit, and then need to change it back when I switch to any other input. I sat on hold for an hour and a half with Sonicblue tech support to finally give up. I don't see anywhere to make adjustments, so I doubt that there is anything that can be done anyway. Over on AVSForum there are a few other people with the same issues, so I know I'm not the only one. Caveat emptor. -Dave


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This post contains affiliate links you can use to purchase the book. If you buy the book using that link, I will receive a small commission from the sale.The Lost Heir by Allison Whitmore, Erin Virginia, Grace Arden
Published by Booktrope Publishing on December 8th 2015
Pages: 368
Buy on Amazon
Isabella Foxworthy was just another girl…until she learned she was an empath, able to read the energy of others. A secret world known as the Violet City lies beneath her family's hotel in Los Angeles. Through this discovery, Isabella is catapulted into a whirlwind of magic, adventure, and danger. The Violet City holds the key to protecting her stability; her family hotel, her friends, and her very sanity.
With morphlings, empaths, and fair folk also comes a powerful entity that twists her mind into knots, threatening everything she loves. Now, Isabella and her new friends—a guitar-playing jock, his gifted but neurotic brother, and a set of over-indulged twins—have until her 16th birthday to save her world with the help of someone who's been lost for a very long time...the lost Foxworthy heir.
But will they find him in time? And will he be a friend or foe?


text: If you do decide to buy one, then the next question for would be how to get one, what model can you buy. At this moment, the top of the line device is the iPhone 6s, but the older iPhone 6 and iPhone 5 models are still available online. You can even find old iPhone 4 models online, especially with those old or refurbished models. So if you want to buy a refurbished iPhone, you can have many options, but I think you will get more from a trust retailer from online like eBay, but you can also expect a high quality one from the cell phone age com. Whether you're interested in buying refurbished Apple products or a phone running Android, you'll have lots of phones to choose from. A refurbished iPhone 6 will help you save money because it can be had for quite a bit less than its new counterpart. In fact, you can look forward to saving anywhere from 20 to 40 percent on a refurbished phone!The product you get will guarantee fully work like new and you will get all the accessories packaged like new. We sell good quality unlocked refurbished iPhone 6/5s/5s with a warranty of a year, if any problem happen to your refurbished iPhone 5c, you can get it fixed or even returned in some extreme circumstance.


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September 8, 2017 § 1 Comment
A recent story discusses the impact of Hurricane Harvey on the availability of some common plastics. It points out that the hurricane has shut down production on the Gulf Coast sufficiently to impact availability of these materials well into November. They refer to derivatives of ethylene, in particular, polyethylene and PVC.
We have previously discussed in this forum, and in my 2015 book, the concentration of ethylene crackers in the Gulf area. The main point made then was the distance of the crackers from many of the ethane sources associated with shale gas. This distance has caused ethane pricing to be extremely low in consideration of its calorific value. In the book, I note that LyondellBasell grew substantially because they owned two crackers in the Midwest, and profited handsomely from the low local prices. More recently, ethane from Texas sources has fed plant expansion in existing plants near Houston. These are barely on stream. Then Harvey hit and shut many of these down. Incidentally, gasoline and diesel production also was impacted. This is evidenced by (Arab Embargo caused) 1970's style lines at gas stations in Dallas.
The impact of Harvey on ethylene production underlines the risk associated with large concentrations of oil and gas refining, or any chemical industry for that matter, in storm prone areas. Distributed production of fuels and chemicals is a good idea for a variety of reasons. One is exemplified in the Harvey ethylene and gasoline situation. Another, more germane, is the location of conversion plants close to the raw material source. In the limit, pipelines are eliminated. Today, shale oil from the Permian is being hampered by lack of pipeline capacity. The spread between WTI and Brent is once again rearing its ugly head. It was squeezed when oil export was allowed.
The knee-jerk reaction would be to build more pipelines, fast. The more thoughtful action would be to permit and build small refineries proximal to the production. Shale oil is light, and mostly sweet (low sulfur). It can be refined in "simple" refineries; essentially distillation columns. The complications of cracking are not in play. Once financed, these can be built in two to three years, not very different from the time scale to enable pipelines. Fewer pipelines are better for local property owners, and for the environment. Local jobs will be created, and the prosperity will be distributed.
Shale oil, because it is light, always has associated gas. Expect a ramp up in gas production, possibly without enough pipeline capacity. Distributed conversion of this gas into chemicals such as methanol would be an alternative to pipelines. In some cases, new technology will be required, because small scale production of fuels and chemicals is disadvantaged by absence of economies of scale. A national network of manufacturing institutes (NNMI), a federal initiative, has one in this space, known as RAPID. The objective is process intensification, a means by which small scale processes can be economic.
The oil price scenario is playing out now. Shale oil caused the plummet in oil prices, beginning in late 2014. That 50% drop has substantially remained, almost three years later, with some ups and downs. The Saudis gambled on the demise of shale oil if the prices stayed low. Sure enough, according to the Economist, there were a hundred bankruptcies, and default on USD 70 billion in debt. But the industry is still alive, and fairly well. Part of the reason is the entrée of the big players such as ExxonMobil and Shell, into the Permian. The other reason is innovation to reduce the breakeven cost of production. Initially, the cost reduction came from service company discounts and operational efficiencies. Following a thinning out of service companies, those prices will rise. The key parameter is cost per barrel. The improvement can come either in reduced cost or increased production. Expect the latter to be the main player, through innovations increasing the percentage of oil in place recovered.
My crystal ball says that innovation will reduce breakeven costs below USD 40 per barrel and the industry will thrive. But oil prices will continue to stay low, in the consumer-friendly range USD 40 to 65 per barrel. If all of this comes to pass, expect US oil production to go up 3 million barrels per day by 2020 or so. That is a good 30% over current production. Associated gas will flow as well. Now is the time to challenge the orthodoxy in fuels and chemicals processing.
Vikram Rao
July 31, 2017 § Leave a comment
The proposed Atlantic Coast Pipeline (ACP) will be a deterrent to hydraulic fracturing in North Carolina, if completed. A recent report in the News and Observer discusses the merits of the ACP. Importantly, inexpensive natural gas from the north will create a disincentive to produce it in our state.
Shale gas has been singularly responsible for pulling this country out of the recession during the early part of this decade. The fact that our gas is up to a third in price to elsewhere in the world, has caused a manufacturing renaissance. That means jobs. More than half of the over $ 150 billion newly invested capital in chemical manufacturing has come from foreign companies, who are unable to compete by producing in their home countries. However, we here in North Carolina, have not seen the impact of that investment. In large part that is because we lack the natural gas. We could get it from production in our state, or we could have it piped down from up north. That second option is where the ATP comes in. It is certainly the better of the two options.
Could we safely produce shale gas in NC? In my view, yes, provided our state rules and regulations are followed. But, ought we to do so? I think not, based on a couple of factors. One is that NC deposits are not believed to be highly prospective. It will be hard to get responsible oil and gas operators interested when better pickings are available elsewhere. The second is that I expect natural gas prices to remain depressed for several years. This is bad for producers, but great for consumers.
In the NC portion, the pipeline diameter will be 36 inches, with a capacity of 1.5 billion cubic feet (bcf) per day. That is roughly how much a single liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility would use. So, clearly, there is no intent to use this as a lever for an LNG plant for export. This is all to the good, because I don't consider east facing coastal LNG exports to be a good bet, especially with low oil prices out several years. The intended purposes are electricity production, consumer use through current distribution schemes, and other uses not yet planned. This last is enabled by the fact that this is an "open access" pipeline. The unspoken for capacity is another criticism leveled by some. On the other hand, it represents an opportunity.
I believe that the state ought to attract capital to build chemical plants using this gas. A good candidate would be ammonia plants. We still import (from other states and abroad) all our ammonia fertilizer. Together with our world class phosphate mine in Aurora, ammonium phosphate production and export could be feasible. Chemical plants of this sort principally employ two-year degree personnel. Our nationally acclaimed community college system could feed into that. And skilled jobs in the eastern part of the state would be welcomed.
The referenced N&O story mentions some push-back. One critic claims that Marcellus gas is depleting, implying that in a few years the ACP will run below capacity and not meet our needs. The Marcellus is one of the largest gas fields in the world, and these are early days in the exploitation. Furthermore, the Utica field may be larger yet, and the access is straightforward because it is directly underlying the Marcellus. There is considerable clamor to permit more LNG plants for gas export. Nobody is suggesting there will not be enough gas. As noted above, each of these LNG plants uses about the same amount of gas as the ACP. Which would you rather have, gas exports creating jobs elsewhere, or an Atlantic Coast Pipeline creating jobs in North Carolina?
Finally, for those folks who think hydraulic fracturing is a disease we ought not to contract in North Carolina, the ACP is the perfect inoculation.
Vikram Rao
June 27, 2017 § 2 Comments
In a recent story, Secretary Perry offered up the national imperative: "pave the path toward U.S. energy dominance". President Trump has also used the rhetoric of dominance. In most settings, the word stands for a position of control. In energy, it could mean control of price and unfettered availability for domestic consumption. Perry especially cited oil, gas and coal, so we will restrict our discussion to the first two and consider where matters stand today, to appreciate possible new directions by the administration to achieve these goals.
First some editorial comment. Dominance is rarely desirable. The folks dominated hate you and will extract their pound of flesh somewhere. Energy independence is the next one down the line. This too is not desirable, because interdependence, especially with friendlies, is of value. Besides, as discussed below in the case of oil, it is more economically favorable than independence. Finally, there is energy security. This one is a solid yes. It translates into cost effective energy available when needed by the nation.
Shale gas has created a situation for the US that is not far from dominance, but not by design. The abundance, enabled by the technology of hydraulic fracturing, has caused the price in the US to be under USD 3 per MM BTU for years, and likely to remain under USD 5 several years out. The US is now an exporter of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) rather than an importer. This has led to a worldwide drop in gas price. A price controlling cartel led by Russia failed to materialize solely due to the US shale gas phenomenon. The US price continues to be half to a third of most places in the world. Domestic industries relying on natural gas are having a renaissance, compared to their competitors abroad. Effectively, US shale gas is controlling the world price, despite gas being a regional commodity. This walks and talks like dominance, albeit unintentional.
Prior to 2015, oil price was controlled by the OPEC cartel to be in the vicinity of USD 100 per barrel. The influx of shale oil caused the price of oil to plummet to about USD 50 within six months, beginning in late 2014. It has stayed down there since. The Saudis are credited with playing the high stakes gambit of not cutting production to prop up the price, with the intent of mortally wounding shale oil in the US. A hundred bankruptcies and default on USD 70 billion in debt notwithstanding, the industry is strong as ever. The resiliency was in part due to technical and operational innovation, and in part due to the presence of ready buyers. ExxonMobil, Shell, Chevron and ConocoPhillips have firm new footprints with an avowed intent of major investment, at the expense of costly forays, such as into the Arctic. A parenthetical point here is that the Trump reversal of the Obama era Arctic freeze (on new lease sales) has no net effect; the investment will not go there.
Shale oil can turn on (or off) a dime. A new well takes weeks to come on line, as opposed to years on offshore platforms. This response time allows shale oil to ride the waves of price fluctuation. Continued innovation will drop the breakeven well below USD 40 per barrel, and is already there for many prospects. Expect oil price to remain in the range USD 40 to 65 for years, with minor excursions. I predicted this very range in my 2015 book, and nothing has changed. We can safely conclude that shale oil is keeping the price of oil down in the range mentioned, despite OPEC desires. In effect, therefore, US shale oil is now the determinant of the world oil price. Not exactly dominance, but certainly a high degree of control.
Where does that leave this administration with respect to assuring "dominance"? Just don't mess up a good thing. President Obama removed the oil export ban in December, 2015; this had been long overdue. This was crucial for the US energy economy because US light sweet shale oil was not best suited for US refineries. The discounted heavy oil from Canada, Mexico and Venezuela was preferred. The lift of the ban allowed export of shale oil, thus removing a domestic glut, and an associated oil price discount of WTI versus Brent. The steady state situation of high price shale oil export and low cost heavy oil import is a net positive for the economy. Buy low, sell high.
More recently, gas pipelines to Mexico are being augmented. This is a welcome development for the natural gas industry, still shackled by extremely low prices. Mexico, in turn, can key on oil, both offshore and onshore, rather than shale gas. Their conventional oil is increasingly getting heavier, and the US market is important. In return they are buying light shale oil from the US. All of this is important for the health of US energy production and US jobs. This administration ought to avoid doing anything to upset this relationship, such as rhetoric on the inadequacies of NAFTA. Pipelines are long term capital items. Capital investment is dissuaded by uncertainty.
With the unwitting control of price on both oil and natural gas, some may see us in a dominant position. But, more importantly, we can look forward to a North American self-sufficiency on oil and gas by about 2020. That assures energy security and should be the modified fossil energy goal for this administration, rather than dominance.
Vikram Rao
May 29, 2017 § 1 Comment
The Trump administration's decision to sell half the holdings in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is the right step. The SPR was created following the Arab Oil Embargo in the early seventies. It is currently near capacity at about 685 million barrels. The intent had been primarily to guard against a disruption of imports.
The President of the US has the authority to add to, or subtract from, the Reserve without Congressional approval. But the stated reason for this draw down, revenue for the treasury, is debatable, not the least because this is not a piggy bank; withdrawals must serve a strategic purpose. Also, such a massive draw down is likely not in the spirit of the authority given, so Congressional approval may be prudent.
Not debatable is that the US is increasingly importing less oil and it is progressively traveling shorter distances to get to the US. Domestic oil is light and sweet. It is, by and large, not desirable to most of the domestic refineries, which make better profits from discounted heavy oil from Canada, Mexico and Venezuela. Consequently, imports from these neighbors combined with some export of domestic crude is a benefit to the nation. Certainly, light oil from the Middle East and Nigeria, is scarcely required. Our navy does not need to police the Strait of Hormuz, at least not for oil or gas supply reasons (ample shale gas has rendered import of LNG passé). Supply disruptions are much less likely from the close neighbors. About the only real risk is Venezuelan unrest. This combination of reasons justifies a smaller SPR.
But the best reason for a smaller SPR is the rapid response ability of shale oil production. Conventional offshore wells will produce oil 4 or more years after a decision to drill. For shale wells, that figure is a few weeks if the lease is on hand. This nimbleness of shale oil production is a reason why the industry has weathered the saw tooth price behavior of oil. Furthermore, a threatened shale oil industry, run largely by entrepreneurial independent producers, has responded with innovation to drive down the cost to produce. These reasons have conspired to defeat the Saudi gambit of leaving oil price down to freeze out shale oil.
In another twist, unique to shale oil, thousands of wells are drilled but not stimulated, known as DUC (drilled and uncompleted) wells. They wait for better prices. Around 5000 of these exist today. A DUC well can be stimulated and produced in a week in response to even short duration shifts in the price of oil. In fact, their very existence is a bearish influence on commodity traders. These act as buffers and a surrogate for the SPR. In fact, given the short time to production of even regular shale oil wells, all of shale oil still in the ground is the SPR. In my view the SPR could serve its purpose by being only a third of the current 685 million barrels.
I have previously opined that, in the face of the SPR not being needed at current levels, it could be accessed to exert political will or influence. A friendly, strategic, net importing nation could be provided the necessary technology to create the reserve (usually in salt caverns). Oil could be supplied from the SPR to fill this country's new reserve. India, for example, could be enabled with a strategic reserve of 200 million barrels, more than enough for their purposes. The US would be paid for this in one form or the other. At today's oil price, just north of USD 50, we even net a profit; the average acquisition cost of our SPR is close to USD 30. We get our treasury funds, and we potentially slow down India/Iran coziness in energy.
Vikram Rao
May 23, 2017 § Leave a comment
In a surprising decision, the US Senate voted to let stand the Obama era regulation curtailing methane related emissions from the oil and gas value chain. Much of the reaction has related to the political implications of the failure of a Trump supported reversal of an Obama administration action. My take is that, for once, the Senate acted in bipartisan fashion. Several senators on either side of the aisle were on the fence. In the end, Senator McCain's statement probably best explains the action of the fence sitters. He released a statement:
"While I am concerned that the BLM rule may be onerous, passage of the resolution would have prevented the federal government, under any administration, from issuing a rule that is 'similar'"
The key point he was making was that allowing the rule to stand still allowed it to be amended, whereas removing it would prevent any 'similar' rule from being attempted in the future. The current Secretary of the Interior was already on record as willing to encourage voluntary methane reduction by operators. So, the senator's direction will very likely be followed. Besides, as discussed below, much of the mitigation of fugitive methane simply makes economic sense to the operators.
The rule was largely modeled on an existing rule in Colorado, and widely supported by the residents and the oil and gas operators there, who are credited with participating in the details. The federal action was, at least in part, premised on the fact that other states had not followed suit. Interestingly, the senator from Colorado ended up voting to remove the rule. Hmmm.
Two Democrats, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, had considered voting for repeal for similar reasons as Senator McCain, that it was not comfortable as written. Apparently, they were persuaded that changes would be forthcoming. The rule applies only to Bureau of Land Management (BLM) lands. But as a practical matter, if operators are going to act to limit emissions on BLM leases, transferring the technology to other leases would be simple, unless economically onerous.
The Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) is leading an effort on quantifying the nature of the problem and the means to solve it. The Department of Energy's ARPA E unit launched the MONITOR program to create better means for detecting fugitive methane economically. Both these efforts are described in some measure in chapter 2 of my book: Sustainable Shale Oil and Gas: Analytical Chemistry, Geochemistry and Biochemistry Methods. The chapter also describes the principal findings of an EDF funded effort to quantify the distribution of fugitive emissions along the entire value chain from the well to the city gate and somewhat beyond. The data are a bit old now, but the takeaways are illustrative, nevertheless. Over 82% of the losses occur at under 20% of installations. Mitigation measures are advantaged by this concentration. They also conclude that 45% of the emissions can be captured with then current technologies in economic fashion. This could be accomplished by a net additional expenditure of USD 0.01 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) of gas produced. Even at the currently low natural gas prices in the vicinity of USD 3 per mcf, this is certainly economical. Of particular note is that they do take into account a credit for the sale of the natural gas captured. While reasonable, this is not realistic for leaks in the midstream pipeline infrastructure. Detection is also more problematic in the midstream. But some of the MONITOR projects do address that area as well.
There is a tendency to confuse methane releases with emissions from the flaring of natural gas. Both represent economic loss, but the first is more harmful to the environment because methane is about 25 times worse than carbon dioxide in the global warming impact. Many states have regulations covering the various sources of fugitive methane, including coal mining and agriculture. Colorado has a comprehensive one directed to oil and gas production. North Dakota has regulations requiring flaring to be curtailed. The vast bulk of flaring is of gas associated with oil production, whereas the majority of methane releases are in the natural gas production and distribution infrastructure. In the US, gas production is more economically challenged than oil because the market price is lower (gas has regional pricing, unlike oil). This makes investment in mitigation more challenging. But, as the numbers quoted above show, much of this is still economical. Several technologies are in development, some currently available, to attack the problem of flared associated gas. Some of these are also described in the book referenced above.
Fugitive emissions of methane from various industrial sources, including coal mining and oil and gas production, must be targeted for economic and environmental reasons. But the regulations must be guided by the economic availability of detection and amelioration schemes.
Vikram Rao
April 11, 2017 § 1 Comment
Here we go again. Presidents making decisions that are largely symbolic in the face of economic realities. The latest is a report that President Trump will shortly issue an executive order to promote oil and gas exploration and production in the Arctic and Atlantic.
I had previously written that President Obama's 11th hour decision to ban future sales of leases in the Arctic would have no net effect on the industry in the foreseeable future. His ban on the Atlantic coastal waters was more interesting, in that it stopped at approximately the North Carolina border with Virginia. Interesting, because previous exploration had shown potential in the North Carolina waters, more so than Virginia. I think some exploration is likely as a hedge, but actual development will await the sorting out of the true impact of shale oil, as discussed below.
The industry has gone through a secular change. Predicting oil price has proven even more tenuous than in the past. When conventional oil (as opposed to the more recent shale oil) was the only product, oil price prediction entailed understanding the development pipeline, usually years in duration, while factoring in political instability in the oil producing nations. Further assisting the crystal ballers was OPEC, which manipulated prices to remain in the vicinity of USD 100 per barrel. Since about 2015 all that has gone out of the window. Shale oil in the US caused a halving and it has been seesawing around USD 45 ever since. What the future bears depends on the source. In the past, there had always been the outlier analyst predicting USD 200 or some such. But the consensus was in the low one hundred region. Now we have polar opposite predictions regarding supply and demand from the likes of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Sort of the definition of uncertainty. Not the best climate for long term investment. More on that below.
Sustained low prices decimated the ranks of the shale oil producers, resulting in 100 bankruptcies and default on USD 70 bln in debt. But a new force has emerged. Major oil players with deep pockets, such as ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell, have taken large positions. More importantly, those two plus Chevron are committing to USD 7 bln investment in 2017 (some estimates are up to 10 bln.) in shale plays, primarily in the Permian Basin. This is a giant leap from before, when the emphasis was on offshore development. This comes shortly after the Shell announcement of withdrawal from the Arctic "for the foreseeable future". This withdrawal is from continued development of existing leases. That would appear to indicate a disinterest in any more leases in auctions, enabled by the reported President Trump order. In fairness, that does not necessarily follow. Even if they are backing off on development offshore, new leases will still be bought as hedges. This is evident from the recent robust lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico. This is in the relatively benign environment of the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). But an Alaska lease is a horse of a different color. The costs and environmental risks are much higher and the time to first oil (forget gas; that is even more in the doldrums of price than oil) is double that in the OCS.
Uncertainty, with concomitant higher discount rates, particularly hurts long term plays. By contrast, shale oil plays are short term in the extreme. Due to the steep decline rates, new wells must be drilled to keep up the production. These wells take a couple of weeks, not years. When the prices drop, drilling can be curtailed and then picked up at the drop of the proverbial hat. This flexibility is a key to the resilience that shale oil has shown to saw tooth prices. Furthermore, breakeven costs have dropped dramatically. At first these were due to steep service company discounts, which in turn caused bankruptcies among the smaller players. The big boys will inevitably raise prices, especially now with the reduced competition. But the industry is seeing genuine technology advances dropping costs even in the face of the upcoming service price increases. These advances will continue. A Shell spokesman recently stated that they were profitable in the Permian at USD 40 and that "newer wells" were profitable at USD 20. There is little doubt the industry is "high grading" their prospects: mostly just the most productive areas are being exploited. I think that is sustainable until additional technology driven cost reductions bring the lesser prospects back into play in roughly the three to five-year time frame.
The foregoing arguments underline the point that with oil companies likely struggling to pay their dividends in a low-price scenario, shale oil is a good bet. Expensive forays into the Arctic with long term payouts will be off the table in the foreseeable future. Presidential actions on leasing are mere tempests in the Arctic teapot.
Vikram Rao
April 8, 2017 § Leave a comment
Fair warning. This is nothing to do with energy. It is also an ode to UNC, basketball and Michael Jordan, in no particular order. Would I have penned one had Duke taken one to the bank and Christian Laettner (he of The Shot in the NCAA's) had said something equally mysterious as did Michael Jordan, who knows? I suspect a lot would have depended on whether what he said was open to generous interpretation; the ordinary gets few key strokes.
Michael Jordan, speaking to a UNC crowd during a recent basketball game half time, in exhorting the football team (yes, I know that does not appear to compute, but that is the way it came down) to greater heights, famously uttered the phrase: "The ceiling is the roof". Coach Williams' response is quintessentially him: 'He's Michael Jordan, anything he dadgum wants to say is OK with me.' So carefully calculated Hillbilly, so mountains of western North Carolina, and so much a part of Williams' 'aw shucks I just roll the ball out' persona. That might have caused him to be underestimated in the early years, but three national championships later, any underestimate is perilous (OK, we are talking boys playing a game here, so peril may be a bit over the top; like the alleged death threats by Kentucky fans against the referee of their elite 8 game loss). I have always thought that Arnold Schwarzenegger's Austrian accent was more pronounced after he started running for office.
The best basketball player ever out of Carolina, and possibly anywhere, has rights. These rights include well intentioned malapropism. But was it that, really? Many, including the aforementioned Coach Williams, have opined that this was a garbled version of "the sky is the limit". A keen observer will note the absence of either of the words sky or limit in the original quote. I think even Mrs. Malaprop ("The Rivals" 1775) would posthumously agree that her trademark foible required at least a reasonable facsimile of the emasculated word to be present. So, I think we can safely discount malapropism. The problem with interpretations of utterances is that one is compelled to consider the source. Henry Higgins (just saw a rollicking version of My Fair Lady at Playmakers on UNC campus), the eminent linguist of Bernard Shaw creation, would no doubt have been credited with an esoteric, and even possibly a "loverly" *, interpretation. But we will attempt a less fanciful explanation.
Had this been said by star quarterback Andrew Luck, he of the 3.48 GPA in Architectural Design from Stanford, how would we have interpreted it? That is what I have set out to do. Begin with the notion that in a room, the ceiling is the high point. The roof is above that. Clearly, the roof is a physically higher level of attainment than the ceiling. In a multistory building, it gets better. The roof could be hundreds of feet above a given ceiling. Thus, "the ceiling is the roof" is a metaphor for not settling for the most visible high point. Is this what MJ meant? I, for one, am prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Vikram Rao
*Wouldn't it be loverly in My Fair Lady (1957), written by A. J. Lerner and F. Lowe


text:
im trying to contact an old friend and climbing pertner, only ive lost his phone number...so.... does anyone know a ian smith, climber, wave skiier. about 34, 5'10, climbs about E2, black hair. used to live in cumbria and southampton, was last living in birmingham.
if you think you know him, can you get him to call me urgently.
long shot i know, but soemone may climb or know him, hes very much a climbers climber.
thanks guys and girls!


text:
NEW YORK — ``It seems the older you get, the more people want you to dig up the past,`` says Douglas Fairbanks Jr. as he hands a visitor a cup of English tea during an interview in his Park Avenue apartment.
``I`d much rather talk about the future or at least the present. But not at all. People insist on hearing about the good old days. But were those days really all that good? If so, we certainly didn`t realize it.``