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Wednesday, November 2, 2011
TVLine: CHUCK spoiler info from Chris Fedak!
Since it is Fedak, you know he will add to fan delusions of grandeur and promise more than can ever be delivered. But I love this guy anyway!
Expect the comments below to get spoilery so don't post if you don't want to know anything.
59 comments:
- AnonymousNovember 2, 2011 at 4:13 PM
Have you seen episode 5.3 yet? If so, how much is Fedak exaggerating about the fight between Casey and Gertrude?
I don't think you need to see the episode to know he is exaggerating. It's what show runners do.ReplyDelete
- ChipLecsapNovember 2, 2011 at 4:47 PM
also , here is an interview with Carrie Anne-Moss. of you may want to post it, there is some thing in it.ReplyDelete
As for Chris Fedak, yeah He a little overhyped almost everything.
But alos Magnus, once said a very very good, , honest and respectful thing that I ever heard, and it actualy true almost every Showrunners. It was something like, sorry if I not quoted correctly. it was that, He loves the show may be even more than the fans. but He also not see the ways the show, as the most fans, and tath is why some of He's idea should never leave the writer board or whatever :S.
I have my reservations especially, if when He use teh word EPIC EPICLAND.
:) We will see
Yeah... I think Fedak loves the show more than any fan. I really do. And I base that on what people who work for him tell me. He LOVES the show. He isn't one of those people who is doing it for a paycheck. I think he would write this show for free.ReplyDelete
But having said that... I think part of that love is what clouds him to its faults, or the faults in his story telling style. I think part of the problem for him now is that he had a team that started the show with him, of very solid story tellers. And the team he has now, outside of one person, are all people who joined him well into the ride. And so their experience with writing the show is from the point of departure for the core group.ReplyDelete
I feel that seasons 4 and 5 are going to have a similar flatness in their overall story telling because there is no Ali Adler around to move the show in a certain direction. Ali, for a lot of fans, was the heart and soul of the heart and soul of the show. Is that belief accurate? I think it is, at least partially.
She just has a way about telling stories that have deep roots in family, love, and romance. Chris is more of a spy/tech guy.
And finally, let us not forget that the version of this show that he wanted to make wasn't much like this show at all. It was Schwartz who changed the direction of it, adding the family and romance elements. And when Ali Adler joined the team, you had the perfect note within that writers room. A strong willed female writer who has a distinct writing style.
I'm getting the sense from various teasers--I don't know enough to call them real spoilers--that this season is going to go through several mini-arcs in just 13 episodes. That seems to be another hallmark of Fedak's style too.ReplyDelete
We seem to have this Gertrude in the early part of the season, but, then, some other "big bad" comes in for the end. I sense the Morgan/Chuck thing comes to a climax in just three episodes.
In the end, I wonder what the lasting impression is going to be. Dizzying?
People tend to remember the things they disliked more than the things they liked. Unless, of course, the thing they liked met some major need they had for the show (hence why shippers think season 4 was so AWESOME even though it was the weakest).ReplyDelete
- AdriaN`SNovember 2, 2011 at 5:44 PM
I agree with you Magnus i think Ali Adler episodes are best written episodes for fans who enjoy the Chuck and Sarah relationshipReplyDelete
I will even go as far as saying even the actors performances where better in those episodes
i read a lot of reviews back then and they all praised Zac and Yvonne for how they performed
So maybe Ali knew the actors better and she knew how to write for their acting style
As for season 5 from the dynamic we got to see in the first episode and the spoilers the best thing seems to be the Casey and Gertrude duo
Casey is to cool to be single : )) and i liked Carrie Anne Moss in Matrix so its nice to see her again especially paired up with Adam
I don't just mean Ali Adler's episodes. The writers don't sit in the room in silence as the season is broken. Ali would have been an integral part of the process.ReplyDelete
I actually miss Matt Miller more as a writer. As much as I enjoyed Ali's ability to write Chuck/Sarah, I enjoyed Matt's take on the whole show more.ReplyDelete
- AdriaN`SNovember 2, 2011 at 5:58 PM
I know that but i heard in interviews that she was the one handling the romance part and i think in those seasons they found better ways to include the romance in the overall themeReplyDelete
And i think this is one of the things that are missing since the old writers left... the balance
Btw. Magnus u know how many writers left the show after season 3 ?
I don't remember off hand how many left.ReplyDelete
- AnonymousNovember 2, 2011 at 6:05 PM
I guess Gertrude keeps appearing throughout the season. Last week someone tweeted about seeing Carrie-Anne Moss with Yvonne S. at the studios, so that would have been like episode 5.09?ReplyDelete
I always felt that I enjoyed the things that Chris Fedak loves the most about the show the least. And there might be something to it, that there is no strong presence to counterbalance him anymore.ReplyDelete
I actually didn´t dislike the first episode at all, even though the Sarah/Morgan dance should have been played for laughs. Morgan can be really funny and I love him being paired up with Casey and Sarah. I actually think he works really well with Ellie and Awesome, too. And I loved Chuck without the intersect.
But I just can´t relate to the Chuck/Morgan dynamic at all. I actually enjoy them both less, if they are in a scene together.
So Fedak teasing us with "The Chuck/Morgan bromance is very much at the heart and center of the show,..." makes me not very excited for what is to come.
Well, we shall see how it all goes down in the next few episodes.ReplyDelete
I am looking forward to the Casey and Gertrude Verbansky. That sounds like it could be a lot of fun. And maybe I will enjoy Chuck/Morgan more, if they do something different with them. At least I don´t have to be worried about them ruining that bromance, as I am not that invested in it. ;)ReplyDelete
But I do miss Ali Adler´s influence with the emotional side of the show. At least I think it could be her influence that´s missing for me. I think the comedy stuff is still working very well and the spy plotlines were never that strong.
And I think Ali Adler is wasted on Glee, because I can´t stand that show any more. That´s just my opinion, though. I hope she is happy and people are enjoying her work there.
- ChipLecsapNovember 2, 2011 at 6:54 PM
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.ReplyDelete
Please do not copy and paste content from other sites. Post a link. I do not support plagiarizing like other sites do.ReplyDelete
- ChipLecsapNovember 2, 2011 at 7:02 PM
Oh , Okey, sorry. then Just the links is okey?ReplyDelete
You can discuss what is at those links but don't post the entire content. That is how sites steal hits from other sites and it isn't cool... or legal.ReplyDelete
- ChipLecsapNovember 2, 2011 at 7:48 PM
Well I'm looking forward to episode 4-5 , those sounds good.ReplyDelete
Sarah episode, well, that is a little different, I a little worry because, I feel , this is gonna be like : Well this is sound good, lets make it type episode.
Some times I really feel, that even the showrunners not always pay attention to thier work, I not mean exactly for Sarah story, but . In these Twitter, chit-chat or whatever , someone actualy Tweeted, that Chris said that some of their idea is come as they go, wich is prove your theory from earlier.
I don't know , right now, there are to little information.
- ChipLecsapNovember 2, 2011 at 7:57 PM
But whatever i say, it not mean I don't love the show, I think I have a healty criticism, but if I go to far, just shut me down ;)ReplyDelete
But you know prepared for the worst and hope for the best.
sounds lame isn't? LOL
- AnonymousNovember 2, 2011 at 8:31 PM
One thing I took after the premiere was that "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts". Even though I absolutely did not enjoy Morgan as the intersect storyline, I still enjoyed the rest of what the episode stood for. For whatever troubles they may have gone through in the writers room over the years, they could've done a lot worse. I do think that in general though, the character of Morgan has been handled unevenly which is probably why I feel like there's almost an overdose of Morgan. It seems like the latter of season 4 tried to overcompensate for his earlier lack of prominence. He used to be more enjoyable to watch because there was a more organic development of his character. For example, while I bought the whole Morgan/Anna relationship, I was never sold on Morgan/Alex. Anyways, hopefully we'll be pleasantly surprised by Fedak and co. this season.ReplyDelete
Hoping is a waste of effort.ReplyDelete
- AnonymousNovember 3, 2011 at 1:44 AM
I remember last year Chris Fedak said Push Mix was the greatest episode that they had ever done.ReplyDelete
Of course he was exaggerating but Push Mix was still a pretty good episode.
The scene with Chuck and Volkoff in the cabin was one of my favorite scenes from the entire series.
Chris Fedak is most likely exaggerating here too but that doesn't mean that the episodes he's talking about won't be good.
- AnonymousNovember 3, 2011 at 2:51 AM
The Chuck and Morgan bromance is my least favorite part of the show. So not good news from my POV.ReplyDelete
- AnonymousNovember 3, 2011 at 3:46 AM
Does Josh Schwartz have anything do with this show anymore?ReplyDelete
Josh Schwartz is still involved, I am sure... but is he there every day? No. I don't think he has ever been that guy anyway.ReplyDelete
Part of the job of a good showrunner is to be proud of your show and be enthusiastic about it. So, maybe he's more enthusiastic that you are, but is that really wrong?ReplyDelete
Before a show even gets greenlit, they have to go into network execs and sell their concept. So, there is a bit of "salesmanship" involved to the job, too. If he's exaggerating, he's either just doing his job or he actually believes it. Or both.
There's nothing wrong with either.
Well this is a man who told Mo Ryan that he was very proud of the first 13 of season 3....So he can be delusional at times, but overall he has done good.ReplyDelete
I liked many of the episodes in the first 13 of season 3. Even if a few were clunkers, why shouldn't he be proud of the whole?ReplyDelete
For so, so, so many reasons. Mo Ryan provided quite a few when she attacked him, deservedly so.ReplyDelete
- AnonymousNovember 3, 2011 at 3:41 PM
I swear the first half of season 3 is so underappreciated by people.ReplyDelete
I don't get the hatred for episodes like First Class and First kill.
They weren't the greatest episodes but they were better than their reputation.
Again Chris Fedak is telling the story he wants to tell so why shouldn't he be proud of them.
Mo Ryan is the same as anybody else she has an opinion and you either agree with her or not.
Operation awesome, first class, beard, nacho sampler, other guy, tic tac....there are some great episodes for sure. I think it might just be that sense of desperation in those 13 episodes where they are fighting tooth and nail to avoid the inevitable that brings down those episodes a little. Once they were free.....the six that followed were fantastic.ReplyDelete
- AnonymousNovember 3, 2011 at 4:14 PM
I hated Shaw character and thought BR was crap, but i still liked most of first half of season 3, so for me some of the hate toward it seem over the top. And frankly i loved Final Exam and even liked Fake Name, the only ones i disliked were Mask (i also wasn't big fan of Pink Slip, American Hero).ReplyDelete
To not make this comment completely OT, i wonder if episode 8 will be completly self contained or it'll setup some stuff for her character in the last batch of episodes.
Season 3 is my favorite. If I made a top 10 list, 5 episodes from season 3 would make it.ReplyDelete
Honeymooners, subway, beard, tic tac, nacho sampler/operation awesome/first class? I think I am positive that the first 4 are correct, but I am not sure about your last one.ReplyDelete
Season 2 is best remembered for the home stretch. But yeah season 3 was good, at least the characters were moving forward. I think the train station scene does get a nasty turn...people forget that the characters were actually admitting something to themselves that they did not before.....sigh.ReplyDelete
Not Nacho Sampler or First Class. The fifth would be Final Exam. Season 3 has THREE of my top 10 episodes... IN A ROW. They were on a creative high that month.ReplyDelete
- AnonymousNovember 3, 2011 at 7:06 PM
I do not get the hate for the first 13 episodes of season three.About the only thing that made me go huh? was the train station.Like someone said before that was the characters realizing what they truly wanted.Maybe if Chuck would have informed Sarah just a bit earlier, maybe the three weeks he had BEFORE he got to the train station, he might of not had to go thru the Shaw and Hannah thing, but I think that is the point.Chuck had to realize what he wanted and what was most important to him before he could pursue what he wanted. Sarah had to go thru being rejected, not trusting someone and closing up again. she had to learn to open up again, even if she does get hurt. THAT is why I have no problem with Fake Name OR Mask.S he had to start opening up again and Shaw was there, Chuck wasn't.Chuck first had to learn that you do not just fall out of love with someone and move on, no problem.Chuck was learning that he loved Sarah even more than being a spy and that he was losing her forever and that if he did not step up and try, he would lose her to Shaw and Chuck had to earn her trust again.ReplyDelete
I do think that the last minute renewals did push the romance faster than they wanted and that pushed expectations for the romance to come together sooner for the fan base.But the writers had to finish the journey of Chuck and Sarah as individuals before they can be together as a couple. C'mon, who did not love the moment they finally got together in Other Guy?
The only problem with Pink Slip is that Ali Adler did not write it, if she did then the train station scene would have been what Chuck said in the vault. As Magnus said, Ali knows how to write love.ReplyDelete
- AnonymousNovember 3, 2011 at 8:39 PM
" The only problem with Pink Slip is that Ali Adler did not write it, if she did then the train station scene would have been what Chuck said in the vault. As Magnus said, Ali knows how to write love."ReplyDelete
I don't think that's how it works. The writers are writing to a predetermined story arc, within which I imagine they have a certain amount of flexibility. Recall that Ali wrote Fake Name too, and didn't magically turn that into something other than what the show runners intended at that point in the narrative.
I do not know Jim, if you look at season 2 they had an episode that slowed down Chuck and Sarah and then comes along an Ali Adler episode next and they are back on, lol. Prime examples are they slow down in break up and then Ali puts in a very romantic ending in cougars. They slow down in third dimension then.. best friend...Ali...then suburbs...preditor chuck does not trust sarah...ali adler...broken heart and a romantic ending where he does trust her.ReplyDelete
To be honest Matt Miller did that a couple of times too, lol. Beefcake...then lethal weapon (great episode). First Kill then colonel, lol.
Looking at season 2 I just realised man that was an up and down emotional rollercoaster, lol. Fun but emotionally taxing and confusing.
Gina, individual writers don't get to decide on their own whether characters confess their love, or end up together etc in an episode. That kind of thing is always going to be decided by the group and given the go-ahead by the show runner(s).ReplyDelete
Was the up and down nature of season 2's romance arcs a byproduct of lack of confidence in the spy stories/mythology?ReplyDelete
In a way if that is the case then that is not a bad thing, a shows strength is a strength. I mean community keeps getting rave reviews for the concept episodes, event though I adore all of them, fans do crap on the non concept ones for some lame reason or another.
It does amaze me that some critics have actually loved the heart and emotion of the show, I loved Mo Ryan's interview and this particular review: http://www.boomtron.com/2011/05/chuck-chuck-versus-the-cliffhanger-review/. It feels like they kind of let their heart think when writing or interviewing, lol.
"Was the up and down nature of season 2's romance arcs a byproduct of lack of confidence in the spy stories/mythology? "ReplyDelete
Nope. Just them mashing the romance angst button to elevate audience interest in the will-they-won't-they romance.
- AnonymousNovember 4, 2011 at 12:20 AM
This season must be so interesting if we're rehashing S2 and S3 again.ReplyDelete
One of the funniest things I remember about terminator 3 (apart from being the weakest movie of the franchise) is when John Conner asks the terminator if he remembers the stuff he taught the other model. Characters on tv are kind of like that most of the time (especially network tv shows)...you can spend a whole season teaching them something then the next season resets them like the terminator was reset from the second to third movie, lol.ReplyDelete
All this is to say...entertainment as a visual medium is all about entertaining you in the here and now but come the next chapter? the lack of imagination can be quite depressing...rinse and repeat....if it aint broke do not try to fix it. Whatever people say about Chuck, they have tried to move their characters forward and that is a triumph...
I think one of the most frustrating resets was on the Mentalist...oh man did I want to throw my remote at my tv when they said Red John was still alive. They milked it all summer long that Red John was dead and then someone either at CBS or The WB chickened out..."we cannot lose Red John!", lol...what wussessReplyDelete
Yeah, stuff like that happens a lot. I don't think CHUCK has had as much network intervention. Perhaps it should have...ReplyDelete
- AnonymousNovember 4, 2011 at 1:20 AM
I'm excited for what's coming up in season 5 only i haven't really heard much about it.ReplyDelete
From what i have heard i want to see the story about Sarah's mother.
I wanna see Carrie Anne Moss and Casey's backstory.
I wanna know how Bo Derek is suppose to tie into everything.
Even though I know it will probably suck i wonder what the whole conspiracy Decker was talking about is.
I wanna see what Chris Fedak has in store for the final 12 episodes.
I want to see if Chris Fedak is going to come up with a satisfying series finale that people like or is it going to be terribly received like a lot of other series finales.
Expect the series finale to suck and you may be mildly surprised that it only sucks a little bit. ;)ReplyDelete
I would be happy if Decker was just an idiot who holds a grudge against Chuck because Chuck bested him at the end of last season, lol. I mean Casey said that Decker was the guy who kills the guy who kills everyone else and so is a badass, the fact is whatever Decker threw at Chuck, Chuck took it on and still beat him. The best thing would be just him versus Chuck in the end. I could even take other storylines like Decker testing himself out against Chuck to prove he is the best or whatever. Maybe Decker is trying to prove that the only way to be a spy is to be cold and emotionless...which makes both Chuck and his accomplishments all the more scary for the CIA who as Michael Western from Burn Notice will tell you prefer there agents to be loners who like to be loners and like to be able to be cold and dead inside and easy to move on. Heck if Decker is having some sort of mid life crisis...that would give some emotional wieght to the story..a man who thought he had to be one thing to get the job done did not need to be because Chuck can do it and have it all. Simple is the best method I think.ReplyDelete
- AnonymousNovember 4, 2011 at 1:54 AM
It will probably be something stupid that changes everything about the backstory and the mythology that we've learned in all the previous seasons.ReplyDelete
You just know that all the Chuck fanboys that are really into the mythology and the stuff about intersect will hate it with a passion.
They'll be very vocal about it too.
That's why if I were Chris Fedak i would come up with something else just to not have to hear them whine endlessly about it.
I think the smartest thing to do with any finale is to get the big mythology stuff out of the way in the penultimate episode. Then, do a whole finale episode about the characters. I thought LOST got it right. Don't waste time with mythology at the end. If you haven't answered it by the penultimate episode, then it will just feel rushed anyway.ReplyDelete
BSG nearly got it right but they actually DID rush the ending to get us to the character moments. And I know, it is the cool thing to say that both those shows didn't deliver what "the fans" wanted but I call bullpoop on that. It is just the fans heavily invested in getting answers to everything.
And as I like to say, those people who need answers to everything are deeply insecure and project that insecurity into their favorite shows.
- AnonymousNovember 4, 2011 at 4:22 AM
What's the over/under at regarding at some point this season that Decker has the intersect as well ?ReplyDelete
c'mon you just know it's going to happen :)
- AnonymousNovember 4, 2011 at 12:29 PM
I think that season 3 was the best season and after that the show lost the Charah dynamic and now they are just a married couple. But we have the opportunity to exlore other characters like Morgan and Casey even more. I hope for a better execution from the writers whatever story they want to tell us because this is the problem for me.ReplyDelete
- AnonymousNovember 4, 2011 at 11:52 PM
Do you guys think NBC would order extended episodes for Chuck's final season? :(ReplyDelete
No flaming, baiting, trolling, expletives, or racism allowed. And NO DISCUSSIONS of the actor's personal lives ever.


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Monday, January 31, 2011
Bracketology 101's Field of 68 - Jan. 31
This week's field features a new 1 seed (UConn, which got the nod over red-hot Texas thanks to their head-to-head win over the Longhorns in Austin), two new 2 seeds (Duke and Notre Dame), and a new 3 seed (Georgetown). There were a bunch of teams that jumped up two or three lines this week (Louisville, Tennessee, North Carolina, and St. John's) and several teams that fell two or three lines (Villanova, Syracuse, Illinois, Florida State, Washington, Georgia, and UCLA).
Only two at-large bids changed hands this week, as Penn State and Duquesne replaced Oklahoma State and Wichita State. The Cowboys were an easy removal after an 0-2 week, but taking out Wichita (after a 2-0 week) was a little more difficult. Unfortunately for the Shockers, Northern Iowa's win at Missouri State on Sunday makes it increasingly likely that the Missouri Valley is going to be a one-bid league. As is the case in many other mid-major conferences across the country (see: Conference USA, Horizon), parity is killing the MVC. No one team or two teams are pulling away from the pack, and all of the league's contenders are beating up on each othe on a weekly basis. In Wichita's case, UNI now has a better overall resume (road wins at Wichita and Missouri State and an OOC win over New Mexico), and Missouri State has a slight edge over the other two for the MVC automatic.
Penn State made the Big Ten a seven-bid league this week thanks to their win Saturday over Wisconsin. The Nittany Lions have eight losses and a tough road schedule left, but they now have three quality wins in conference, which is good enough - for the moment - to get a bid. Our other addition to the field this week was Duquesne. We admit we are still not believers in the Dukes, but we can't ignore the fact that by the end of this week they should be 9-0 in the A-10. They have just one Top 50 win on the season (Temple), but with this weak bubble, that's sadly enough to get a spot on the 12 line. Our final at-large bid this week went to Gonzaga, despite the Zags' terrible computer numbers (88 RPI) and their two-game deficit in the WCC standings. Their decent OOC resume is saving them at this point and is keeping them in over a team like Colorado State that has just one quality win. That said, Gonzaga will still need to win at Portland and at home against Memphis this week to stay in.
One other notable change to the bracket this week was Cleveland State replacing Butler as the Horizon automatic. Cleveland State probably deserves better than a 13 given their strong computer numbers (29 RPI), but they still have no big wins and we aren't 100% sold that they are the best team in the league. They'll be able to earn that title this week with home games against Valparaiso and Butler.
We had to make one move to avoid seeding conflicts this week - Florida and Minnesota swapped spots on the 5 and 6 lines.
Bracket Breakdown
Last Four In
Washington State, Virginia Tech, Duquesne, Gonzaga
First Four Out
Colorado State, Maryland, UAB, Baylor
Next Four Out
Kansas State, Butler, Northern Iowa, George Mason
"First Four" Games
Washington State vs. Virginia Tech, Duquesne vs. Gonzaga, Austin Peay vs. Hampton, Jackson State vs. McNeese State
Conference Breakdown
Big East (11), Big Ten (7), ACC (5), SEC (5), Big XII (4), A-10 (4), Pac-10 (4), MWC (3), Colonial (2), WCC (2)
America East - Maine
ACC - Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College, Virginia Tech
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
A-10 - Temple, Xavier, Richmond, Duquesne
Big East - Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Syracuse, Louisville, West Virginia, St. John's, Cincinnati, Marquette
Big Sky - Montana
Big South - Coastal Carolina
Big Ten - Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan State, Penn State
Big XII - Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri
Big West - Long Beach State
Colonial - VCU, Old Dominion
Conference USA - Memphis
Horizon - Cleveland State
Ivy - Princeton
MAAC - Fairfield
MAC - Kent State
MEAC - Hampton
MVC - Missouri State
MWC - San Diego State, BYU, UNLV
Northeast - Long Island
Ohio Valley - Austin Peay
Pac-10 - Washington, Arizona, UCLA, Washington State
Patriot - Bucknell
SEC - Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia
Southern - Charleston
Southland - McNeese State
Summit - Oakland
Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic
SWAC - Jackson State
WAC - Utah State
WCC - St. Mary's, Gonzaga
The Seeds
The 1s
Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Connecticut
The 2s
Texas, Duke, Notre Dame, San Diego State
The 3s
BYU, Kentucky, Georgetown, Texas A&M
The 4s
Missouri, Purdue, Villanova, Louisville
The 5s
Syracuse, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Florida
The 6s
Minnesota, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, North Carolina
The 7s
Washington, Illinois, Temple, Xavier
The 8s
UNLV, Florida State, St. John's, Michigan State
The 9s
St. Mary's, Arizona, Cincinnati, Boston College
The 10s
Marquette, Utah State, Old Dominion, Penn State
The 11s
Missouri State, Georgia, VCU, UCLA
The 12s
Memphis, Richmond, Washington State vs. Virginia Tech (FF), Duquesne vs. Gonzaga (FF)
The 13s
Cleveland State, Belmont, Princeton, Charleston
The 14s
Oakland, Kent State, Coastal Carolina, Fairfield
The 15s
Montana, Long Beach State, Bucknell, Florida Atlantic
The 16s
Maine, Long Island, Austin Peay vs. Hampton (FF), Jackson State vs. McNeese State (FF)
The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)
Questions? Comments?E-mail Bracketology 101 at firstname.lastname@example.com or send us a tweet at twitter.com/Bracketology101.
46 comments:
I really don't see how you include Penn St. over MD. MD beat them on their home court by 23 points. MD has a slight advantage in overall record, they're both 1 game over .500 in their conference. MD has no bad losses on their resume, all 7 teams that beat them are in the bracket and all were single digit losses. Penn St. lost to Maine at home which is a really bad loss, I don't care what their record is in the America East, you can not lose that game if you're a bubble team.
For Penn St. to be put in over MD, you got to give me more than just a few good home wins. Michigan St. is not a great win anymore, as they are now losing at home to Michigan and Indiana. Beating Ill and Wisconsin are good wins, but I just don't think its enough to include them in over MD, especially since MD destroyed them on their home court.
- Early Onions said...
Disagree, Matt. And I say this as a lifelong Maryland fan: the Terps pass the eye test, but the resume isn't there yet. Plenty of chances left on the schedule for the Terps to get off the bubble: vs Duke, at VT, at BC, at UNC.
Penn State's two possessions away from a six game win streak (that would have included wins at Ohio State and Purdue). They're far removed from that loss to Maine.
And to be fair: Maryland's had their fair share of disappointing early-season OOC losses in previous years. Remember AU? Remember Morgan State? Bad losses happen, but Penn State's proven that they're worthy of their place on the right side of the bubble.
For now, at least.
why are you using bad OOC losses from past years as a knock against MD THIS year? they are completely irrelevant to this year. the fact that you think they matter makes me just ignore everything else you write.
Something tells me Early Onions is not a MD fan and either a Penn St. or Big Ten fan. What has happened in the past is completely irrelevant in this year's discussion. The point is MD has no bad losses, whereas Penn St. does. MD absolutely destroyed PSU head to head. With 2 teams pretty even, that has to be the deciding factor.
I can understand taking Wichita State out of the bracket, even after a 2-0 week, but then they're not even one of the first eight teams out? They've fallen over nine spots? Or were they projected as the automatic bid in last week's edition, and MO State had an at-large?
There is no doubt that Wichita State has a tough schedule ahead (their four remaining road games in the Valley are against teams with winning records--UNI, MO State, Indiana State, and Evansville), but they have to be in the discussion for a bid, right?
- Bracketology 101 said...
Maryland's head-to-head win over Penn State is nice, but that doesn't mean the Terps have a better overall resume than the Nittany Lions. That win is Maryland's only Top 50 win to date, while Penn State has three Top 50 wins (a significant difference). Penn State's 's RPI is also 24 points better than Maryland's (46 vs. 70).
The Terps need one more big win to get a bid. Beating Duke on Wednesday would do the trick.
- Bracketology 101 said...
If we did a First Ten Out list (instead of a First Eight Out), Wichita State would be on it. What really hurt Wichita's at-large resume was Northern Iowa's win at Missouri State on Sunday. Wichita now has the third best resume in the Missouri Valley behind Missouri State and UNI. The MVC isn't getting three bids, so that left Wichita just outside the First Eight Out.
Assuming a loss @Pitt this Saturday, Cinci will fall to 18-5(5-5). Will that push Cinci out of the bracket?
I think the answer is that the committee is not looking for the best teams, but the most accomplished. If we were looking for the best teams, we wouldn't be talking about the missouri valley getting two, or the mountain west getting four, or cleveland state getting in.
- Bracketology 101 said...
Cincinnati will still be in if they lose at Pitt, but they'll be a double-digit seed.
How does losing at a one-seed hurt your seeding? Don't you project they'll lose? I kind of always figured your method accounted for what you thought would happen in the future, so that only unexpected results changed things...
I'm curious as to how far both Alabama and Clemson are off the radar.
I know they don't have a tournament-worthy resume yet, as both have early bad losses that they haven't overcome yet. However, both are slowly chalking up wins, and though most of those are over mediocre or bad teams, each has a very good win (Clemson over FSU; Alabama over Kentucky).
Like I said, I don't see either of them as "in" yet, but I'm surprised that neither is on the radar when a team like Butler is (and I say that as a longtime mid-major supporter).
- Bracketology 101 said...
Cincinnati might end up staying on the 9 line, but since they only have one game this week and it's a likely loss, they could get passed on the S-curve by teams ranked below them. If Marquette and St. John's have good weeks, the Bearcats could also end the week as the Big East's 11th team, which would also drop them off the 9 line.
Clemson was our ninth team out this week. Their win over Florida State was definitely a step in the right direction, but that was also their first quality win. If the Tigers can survive two tricky road games at Virginia and at Georgia Tech this week, they have home games against North Carolina and BC next week which, if they win, could get them on the right side of the bubble.
Alabama's win over Kentucky is still overshadowed by some bad losses and poor computer numbers (116 RPI). The also have the disadvantage of playing in the SEC West, which doesn't offer many chances for quality wins. If they can continue to win their home games and pull an upset at Vandy, Tennessee, or Florida, then they'll be in the discussion.
- Bracketology 101 said...
Butler's obviously in a lot of trouble in terms of an at-large, but they're ahead of Clemson and Alabama right now because of their OOC wins over Florida State and Washington State.
- Evan said...
For the Maryland vs PSU discussion, head-to-head is not as important as the overall body of work. Maybe Maryland should be in, but not at the cost of PSU.
B101, how does Lunardi have PSU out but you have them as a ten seed. As a PSU fan, I'm pretty pissed at him now. A two win week should get us ranked, and a 1-1 week should put us back squarely on the bubble right?
ALABAMA?!?!?! Lunardi has Alabama winning the SEC? Is he retarded? Not Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, or Tennessee... No, lets go with one of the bottom feeders on a yearly basis...That makes sense.
- Joe said...
@ Anon 1:55 - Glockner has Alabama as the SEC auto bid too. I understand they have the best conference record but that is just being intellectually dishonest.
@ Anon 11:38 - That was something Bilas talked a little about this weekend. He said over the past few years they committee has favored the 'who is a better team?' approach over 'who is more accompished?'. I suppose that is something that cahnges depending on the committee members.
Picking the team with the best conference record to win the league is just dumb... Alabama winning the SEC? Last week it was Ball State winning the MAC... Cmon now Lunardi is just lazy... Put a little common sense behind your bracket, this is your job.
Lunardi is a homer. Isn't it a little too early to be including a "bid stealer" like Alabama in your bracket?
Frankly, I think its entirely possible Alabama wins the SEC's automatic bid. They will easily win the SEC West #1 seed for the conference tournament, which gives them a first round bye and a softer road to the final. They've already beaten Kentucky, and considering Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Florida just got dominated by the SEC West this week there's very little reason to believe the SEC East is much better than the West.
As far as PSU, I agree with the Maryland fans: Penn State's at-large hopes died the day they lost to Maine.
And if the Selection Committee decides to go with who is the more accomplished team over who is the better team this year, its probably because there aren't any "good" teams anymore. Everybody in the country is one bad shooting night from losing to anyone. Even undefeated OSU allowed a terrible defensive and rebounding team in NW to dominate the glass and dictate tempo against them.
- Bracketology 101 said...
We have no idea how Lunardi can have Penn State out and we have absolutely no clue how he can Kansas State (Kansas State?!), Butler, and Wichita State in over them. His bracket is an absolute mess this week...we'll address all of our issues with it in our Questions For The Competition, which will be posted tonight.
We've written thousands of words about this topic over the last five years, but having Alabama in as an automatic bid is exactly why brackets that are put together as if the season ended today don't work. Lunardi isn't including Alabama as a "bid stealer," he's just being lazy and, as commenter Joe said, intellectually dishonest. Rather than make a tougher call about a team on the bubble, he throws Alabama in because they are the "conference leader" (at 5-1 with one good win, no OOC resume, and a 116 RPI). They aren't worthy of a bid, and Lunardi knows that. Just because he is following his own rules by including them doesn't make those rules logical.
We have a feeling Lunardi spends his weekends rooting for cases like this to happen, so he has an excuse to be lazy. We'd rather not take the easy way out.
- Bracketology 101 said...
If Penn State doesn't get an at-large, it won't be because they lost to Maine. Their at-large chances will depend on how they do down they stretch in conference. If they finish 10-8, they're probably getting in.
Teams are allowed to have a bad loss. (Is Illinois done because they lost to UIC?) If those bad losses pile up, and there aren't enough big wins to overshadow them, then a team is in trouble. One hiccup - if you have quality wins elsewhere on your resume - is forgivable.
I'm at a loss for words for these comments and Lunardi's bracket...
AG, can you be a bigger SEC homer? The SEC East has 5 teams going to make the tourney, the West? 0.
Penn State lost to Maryland therefore Maryland should get in ahead of them? Hmm so by that reasoning Maine should be sitting pretty over Penn State as well? Lets talk when Maryland comes within 1 basket of beating the #1 team in the nation on their home court.
really? Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha lets talk again in 10 years.
Lunardi= 0 credibility
Given the whole Alabama mess I wanted to see which other teams had padded their win-loss records by beating up on the little sisters of the weak. So, I decided to compile a list of teams that had thin resumes at the top but had piled up wins against lower ranked teams. Here goes:
Utah State: (0-2 against RPI top 50, 0 games against RPI 51-100, 10-0 against RPI 200+). The hero of cupcake scheduling.
Beltmont: (0-3 against RPI top 50, 0 games against RPI 51-100, 12-0 against RPI 200+).
Coastal Carolina: (0-2 against RPI top 100, 9-0 against RPI 200+).
Vermont: (0-2 against RPI top 100, 11-1 against RPI 200+).
American: (0-5 against RPI top 100, 13-1 against RPI 200+).
Long Island: (0-1 against RPI top 100, 13-1 against RPI 200+).
Wofford: (1-7 against RPI top 100, 10-1 against RPI 200+).
Compared to these illustrious schools, we have the record of Alabama: 1-5 against the RPI top 100, 8-0 against the RPI 200+.
When your profile is closer to a Wofford than that of a St. Johns (6-6 against RPI top 100, 2-1 against RPI 200+), you don't deserve an at large bid, not unless Wofford is on the bubble watch too.
- Early Onions said...
@Matt: Sorry, to clarify my earlier OOC point:
Let's take 2009 Maryland. Beat Michigan State in Orlando. Lost to Gonzaga and Georgetown in the same tournament. Beat Michigan at home. Then lost to Morgan State. But followed it up later in the year with wins over UNC, at NCST, and vs Wake.
A team can overcome a bad loss OOC and still make the bracket. (The Terps got in as a 10 that year.) Big wins tend to overshadow bad losses. And Maryland's remaining schedule offers the Terps plenty of chances for big wins, including vs Duke, at VT, at BC and at UNC.
And, btw, to the Bracketology101 guys -- thanks for all your hard work. Sad to think we only get six more weeks of the bracket predictions until the real one comes out. (But hey! Only six weeks until the real one comes out!)
Early Onions,
That's a good perspective. When it comes to picking bubble teams in a year like this one it's like looking for the average-looking girl at the ugly girl prom. There aren't going to be any supermodels there, but you still have to choose someone to go with.
All of the teams in the Bubble have some serious flaws--they have cupcake schedules or bad losses, or a lot of losses. So what? If they have big wins, they have a better overall resume than some team that had no achievements whatsoever. If Maryland takes care of business in conference and picks up another good win or two it will have enough good wins to justify a spot in the NCAA's. The same is true for teams like Penn State.
- give me the brandy said...
If it was just one bad loss that could be excused, but PSU's lost to Maine, Ole Miss and Michigan, 3 teams not even close to the bubble. They've also lost to fellow ACC bubble teams Maryland and Va Tech. Penn St is just 1-5 on the road (with the win at Indiana).
I still don't think Penn St is ultimately going to end up in the tournament, due to their schedule. I see 5 games in their last 9 that they are going to be underdogs (at Minn, Ill, MSU, Wisc, home vs Ohio St) and one that's a toss-up (home vs Minnesota). They need to prove they can beat a decent team on the road and not lose any of their "easy" games (Northwestern twice, Michigan at home). They've been playing well recently, but it's going to be tough to go 5-4 in the last 9, and I think it's more likely they go 4-5. If they finish just 9-9 in conference they're probably in trouble unless they have a good Big 10 tournament.
Maryland, meanwhile, is 4-2 on the road, including the blow-out win at Penn St, and hasn't lost a game to a team that's not in the field right now (Va Tech and BC are their only "bubble" losses). Of their tough ACC games left (home vs Duke and FSU, at Va Tech, BC and UNC), I like their chances to win 2. They should win their other 4 conference games to get to 10-6 in ACC. That would be enough to get them in.
I tried to make the case that the SEC sucks bad enough for Alabama to have a chance to win it and I'm an SEC homer?
Sounds to me like that poster is an SEC *EAST* homer who didn't like how I demonstrated the SEC East isn't as great as he thinks it is.
I'm not even saying any SEC West teams deserve an at-large, I'm just saying they are capable of beating SEC East teams on any given day. Combine that with what is sure to be a favorable draw for Alabama by virtue of winning the SEC's W1 seed and the fact that they have already beaten Kentucky, and its not that hard to see that Alabama has a chance for an automatic bid.
Personally I feel that 9-9 in big ten is better then 10-6 in ACC. Since their aint really that many good teams in ACC. Big Ten has 7 teams in RPI top 50 where ACC has only three.
Other than bubble team Penn St. Maryland has beaten no other at-large tournament teams. 2nd best win is at home vs Clemson and 3rd best is vs Charleston (RPI 95) Not deserving of a bid at all.
Yes Alabama has "a chance" to win SEC tournament but for that matter Auburn has "a chance" of winning the SEC tourney. But they are not the favorite or even close. They'll be underdogs playing against whoever finishes 4th in SEC East in their first game.
With all that being said.
Go Wofford!!!
People are putting way too much stock in Bama's win at home over Kentucky.
Sure, it was a great win, but Kentucky lost by 2 and played a horrible game. If people think that is going to translate into Bama having a good shot at winning the SEC tournament, then they are mistaken.
Bama has been great at home, but I fail to see how they will get by the East teams in a neutral site that will likely be filled by fans of SEC East teams.
- Kris said...
Can someone explain to me how Wisconsin's schedule warrants a 5-seed? I'm an admittedly biased Minnesota fan, but their resume isn't any deeper than home wins over MN and IL.
Wins @Boston College and @Marquette don't count?
Plus, all 5 of the losses Wisconsin has are "good" losses: @UNLV, Notre Dame, @Illinois, @Michigan State, @Penn State.
Not that Minnesota has a bad resume by any means, despite a loss @Virginia, it has solid wins against Wofford, @North Carolina, West Virginia, and Purdue.
Wisconsin has 5 losses, all to teams in the brackets all within a few points. They also have wins @ Marquette (game looking better and better) and Boston College who are also in the brackets to go with their wins over Illinois and Minnesota.
- Bracketology 101 said...
We know everyone likes to compare one bubble team to another (ie. Penn State vs. Maryland), but at this point it is really about the resume you currently have and where a team will eventually end up. If Maryland beats some tourney teams down the stretch they will make the tournament.
- Mike said...
Penn State has proven they can play with anyone. They lost to Purdue in West Lafayette with 3 seconds left. They are a good team. Has anyone commenting on them watched them lately? I thing Maryland is a good team as well. RIGHT NOW, Penn State has done more than Maryland so we aren't even at a head-to-head tiebreaker. All Penn State has to do is finish 5-4 and they'll be 10-8 in conference. Not easy with the schedule they have left, but not impossible either. Or, maybe they could go 4-5 and do well in the Big Ten Tournament.
Personally I feel that 9-9 in big ten is better then 10-6 in ACC. Since their aint really that many good teams in ACC. Big Ten has 7 teams in RPI top 50 where ACC has only three.
kenpom has 6 ACC teams in the top 50 (i find kenpom much more accurate than the silly rpi): duke (4), maryland (13), unc (21), clemson (29), va tech (31) and fsu (44).
kenpom has 7 B10 teams in the top 50: ohio st (1), wisconsin (8), purdue (9), illinois (18), mich st (38), minn (43) and penn st (46).
that looks pretty similar to me. the one big difference is that the ACC has horrific wake and the B10 doesn't have a team remotely as bad as wake.
If Texas keeps on racking up marquee wins like a huge away stomping of Texas A & M tonight it's going to be hard to keep them off the 1 line.
- Bracketology 101 said...
Ya ur kenpom thing has Maryland at 14. Thats realistic that their the 14th best team in the country. You take your kenpom rankings and i'll go with rpi as a somewhat decent way to rank teams.
What seed does Oakland top out at?
"that looks pretty similar to me. the one big difference is that the ACC has horrific wake and the B10 doesn't have a team remotely as bad as wake."
In all fairness, the Big Ten has Iowa, which blew a halftime lead to Wake Forest.
- Bracketology 101 said...
Oakland would probably top out at a 12.
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When I write all of these guides I like to make sure I know what I'm talking about by experiencing all of the content for myself. I don't write guides for leveling classes until I've played them myself, for example, nor do I like to cover level ranges that I haven't actually participated in personally. Before I even get started on leveling my own toons though, I like to do my own research beforehand.
My own research includes checking blogs that I know are related to the topic in question, checking forums to get multiple opinions on various aspects, and digging deeply into the Wowhead database for things I might have missed. I don't always catch everything of course, and that's not why I mention it, but the point is that I like to research things before I get started. That desire to know what to expect ahead of time is the reason why I blog about what I do, to offer other people the kind of help I wish was out there for me when I needed it.
And that brings me to the purpose of today's post, Shadow Priest PvP. As you know if you've been following my blog for the last few weeks, I'm currently working on a Shadow Priest who I just got up to level 81 last night. I've been participating in PvP off and on since she was level 10 and quite frequently from the time she hit level 60 on. As usual I like to get into PvP my own way and figure things out as I go, adjusting where I see a need so that I can get better at it every match. Eventually I get to a point, like last week, where I'm doing great, but I want to improve as I know I'm fighting random players that aren't necessarily skilled at PvP. And so, the search for Shadow Priest PvP began…and ended.
The only sources I can find for Shadow Priest PvP are outdated. I'm sure I haven't checked "everywhere" or else I surely would have found something. Right? I am exaggerating there just a little bit, I did find a few decent sources of information, but not enough.
The most recent post I found on Shadow Priest PvP that was anything more then "hey I can kill everything but a feral druid" was from over a year ago. I did manage to find a few forum threads here and there that mentioned specific parts of a strategy and some suggestions on spec, but nothing really solid.
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Russia is in the middle of a blazing tabloid-style scandal that features a bejeweled blonde, a luxury love nest, and an alleged scam worth more than $200 million.
But that's not where some Kremlin watchers are putting their attention. They see the scandal as just the visible fallout from a vicious backroom fight among Russia's ruling elite.
The real question is whether the struggle may have forced President Vladimir Putin to sack a loyal ally, his former Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov.
Scandal Rocks Elite
The scandal has been brewing since early fall, with leaked reports about an investigation into the sale of some military real estate to private companies.
Officials of a state-controlled company allegedly sold the land to their cronies at rock-bottom prices, then collected big kickbacks when the property was resold to developers.
It was clear from the leaks that the investigation was rapidly climbing to the very top of the Russian Defense Ministry, until at last President Putin felt compelled to act. Early in November, he announced he was firing Serdyukov.
As defense minister, Serdyukov was widely believed to have Putin's support, especially because he was carrying out a controversial plan to modernize Russia's hidebound military.
But it wasn't long before steamy details began to emerge on state-controlled TV. Before dawn one morning, investigators raided the 13-room apartment of Yevgeniya Vasilyeva, the former head of the property department at the Defense Ministry. TV channels gleefully pointed out that Serdyukov was at the apartment with Vasilyeva at the time of the raid.
They also pointed out that Vasilyeva is blonde, 33 and fond of sparkly dresses, while Serdyukov, 50, is portly and married to another woman.
It didn't help their cause that investigators also found hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of cash, jewelry and antiques in the apartment.
Questions Over Motives
While this may have been enough to cost an American official his job, Russians tend to be more blase about such matters.
"Mr. Serdyukov conducted the normal life of Russian top official, and everybody in this country knows for sure that it cannot be a reason for firing," says Alexander Golts, an independent military analyst and editor at the Daily Journal in Moscow.
He says mere personal misconduct would not have cost Serdyukov his job, especially when Putin is known for his loyalty to top allies.
Serdyukov is a former furniture salesman from St. Petersburg, whose fortunes dramatically improved after he married the daughter of a very powerful Putin ally.
His father-in-law, Viktor Zubkov, is a former prime minister and the current chairman of the Russian natural gas company Gazprom.
That raised the possibility that Serdyukov's fall was the revenge of an outraged father-in-law, but experts tend to discount that theory as well.
Pavel Felgenhauer, a military expert and columnist at the Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta, points to recent revelations that Vasilyeva's apartment had been planted with listening devices during the investigation.
Felgenhauer says the bugging of a defense minister is something that could only be ordered by people at the very top of the government.
"This is all about money and real estate and internal quarrels within the ruling top elite that can order the special services to begin a special operation against the defense minister," Felgenhauer says.
An Unhappy Officer Corps
Serdyukov made himself unpopular with generals in the Russian military when he trimmed a notoriously top-heavy senior officer corps.
He earned the enmity of Russia's entrenched defense industry by refusing to buy obsolete equipment.
But whether the infighting was about real estate or military contracts, Golts says Putin was apparently unable to keep a lid on the quarrel.
In previous years, he says, Putin was able to keep state journalists and government officials from attacking his allies, but this time, Putin's signals were ignored.
"It moves me to the conclusion that, now, these top bureaucrats began to play their own games, and began their fights without [the] permission of Mr. Putin," Golts says.
Putin has since appointed a new defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, who previously served as Moscow's regional governor. Vasilyeva was placed under house arrest, charged with fraud. No charges have yet been brought against Serdyukov.
As the scandal plays out, analysts are asking what will happen to the government's efforts to rebuild Russia's military. It's an issue that has been widely discussed and yet remains unresolved since the Soviet breakup two decades ago.
We're going to spend a couple days looking at the once proud and mighty Russian military. America's Cold War foe, often struggling for relevance on today's world stage, is facing some big decisions about the future of its defense industry. But there's a lot more to this story, and NPR's Moscow bureau chief Corey Flintoff has been looking into it. He's going to give us a window into modern-day Russia: the political power struggles, the corruption and questions about whether Russia's President Vladimir Putin might be losing some of this iron grip.
And we have Corey on the line with us from Moscow. Corey, welcome to the program.
COREY FLINTOFF, BYLINE: Good morning, David.
GREENE: So it really sounds like there's been this internal struggle in Russia over the future of the military, and like so many stories do, it involves scandal.
FLINTOFF: That's right, and it's a big tabloid-style sensation. It features a bejeweled blonde, what the tabloids used to call a love nest, and an alleged scam that, at least so far, is worth more than $200 million. And this is something that really bubbled up in the early fall when news started to leak out about an investigation into the way that some surplus military real estate was being sold off to private companies.
Officials of a state-owned company allegedly would sell this land to their cronies at rock-bottom prices, and then they'd collect big kickbacks when the property was resold to developers. It got juicier when investigators staged a predawn raid. And this was part of the original scandal. They raided a luxury apartment in Moscow, and we're talking about a 13-room apartment here that belonged to a woman by the name of Yevgeniya Vasilyeva. And she was the former head of the property department at the Defense Ministry.
State TV channels pointed out - rather gleefully, I might add - that there was a man in the apartment with Ms. Vasilyeva at the time of the raid, and it was the defense minister, Anatoly Serdyukov - or rather, the former defense minister.
The reports also pointed out that Ms. Vasilyeva is blonde. She's 33. She's fond of wearing sparkly dresses, while Serdyukov is 50. He's a bit on the portly side, and he's married. It also didn't help that investigators also found hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of cash, jewelry, antiques, all kinds of things in this apartment.
GREENE: Sounds like journalists are having fun with that part of the story. But you said former defense minister, Corey. And I guess wonder, was he fired for being in this apartment with this former head of the property department of the defense ministry?
FLINTOFF: Well, he was actually fired shortly before that when the basic outlines of this scandal came out. I mean, this was all going on in his watch as the defense minister, and he was obviously involved in some way with people who were being charged in this crime. But this raid just made juicier. And what was interesting was the way that the state-controlled media were having a field day with this.
Normally, a scandal involving a senior public official is something that would have been downplayed, if it were even covered at all.
GREENE: So it may be a sign of changing times in Russia that this story becomes such a front page story.
FLINTOFF: That's right. And the Kremlin watchers who have been paying attention to this see it as something more than just a scandal or a tabloid sensation. It's more like the visible fallout from a really vicious backroom fight that seems to be going on among Russia's ruling elite. And the real question, then, is whether there's a power struggle that's going on that may have forced President Putin to sack one of his loyal allies.
GREENE: Okay. So we have state-controlled media feeling emboldened enough to cover this scandal. We have President Putin having to sack a loyal ally, which I imagine is certainly not something that he would want to do.
FLINTOFF: Yes, and someone who is actually seen as a fairly effective manager. In fact, he'd made some headway with some pretty controversial efforts to reform the way that Russia's very hidebound defense establishment operates.
GREENE: All right, so not just an ally of Putin, but someone who is actually getting the job done, it sounds like. And I know we're going to hear more of your reporting in just a moment. I guess, though, first, I'm just so curious. We've seen sex scandals cost the jobs of American officials - most recently CIA director David Petraeus. But how does something like this kind of play out in Russia?
FLINTOFF: Well, I talked to some analysts who say that normally, the Russian public would never hear so much about hanky-panky on the part of top officials. But, you know, the behavior itself is not at all out of the ordinary here. Here's what one analyst told me.
ALEXANDER GOLTS: Mr. Serdyukov conducted normal life of Russian top official, and everybody in this country knows for sure that it cannot be a reason for firing.
FLINTOFF: That's Alexander Golts. He's an independent military analyst and editor at the Daily Journal in Moscow. He says that mere misconduct would never have cost Serdyukov his job, especially when President Putin is known for loyalty to his top allies. But Serdyukov made himself unpopular with generals in the Russian military when he trimmed a notoriously top-heavy senior officer corp.
He also earned the enmity of Russia's entrenched defense industry by refusing to buy obsolete equipment. But whether this infighting was about real estate or military contracts, Golt says that Putin was apparently unable to keep a lid on the quarrel. In previous years, he says that Putin would have been able to keep state journalists and government officials from attacking his allies, but this time, Putin's signals were ignored.
GOLTS: It moves me to the conclusion that now these top bureaucrats began to play their own games and began their fights without permission of Mr. Putin.
GREENE: That's reporting from NPR's Corey Flintoff in Moscow. And Corey is still on the line with us. And I want to ask you, Corey, I mean, we have this former defense minister who was unpopular with the generals, you say, unpopular with the defense ministry, but an ally of Vladimir Putin. Putin's hand is forced, things going on without Putin's permission - I mean, that sounds pretty startling for a leader who is seen as so strong.
FLINTOFF: It is. And, of course, everything that goes on at the Kremlin is all about speculation. I mean, we really don't know what's happening. One thing, though, about the way the Kremlin operates, is that it is run by a group of different factions, and they include, you know, people in the business world, KGB people who served with Vladimir Putin, and each of them is competing for power.
It's not clear whether Putin has been able to keep everybody in line or - and that this is something that he really wants to happen, or if this is an entirely new development and things have gotten out of control.
GREENE: You say something he might want to happen. I mean, he might want to have, you know, different factions competing? That could benefit him, in a way?
FLINTOFF: That possibly could. Another problem is that Putin has put a lot of emphasis on the idea that the new defense budget has to be spent wisely and carefully if Russia's defense establishment is going to be reformed. So it may be that he really is anxious to give out the signal that corruption will not be tolerated, at least for now.
GREENE: And we're going to be hearing a lot more about that defense ministry and Vladimir Putin as we talk tomorrow, as I understand it.
FLINTOFF: Right. We'll be hearing about the problems that have hampered what used to be a very powerful Russian military, and also some of the reasons why a militarily weak Russia may not be in America's best interest. And, of course, David, we'll be talking about what all this means for Vladimir Putin.
GREENE: All right, Corey, looking forward to it.
FLINTOFF: Thank you, David. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.


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• Piano Summit takes place beginning at 7 p.m. on Sunday, Nov. 18 at Dizzy's, 4275 Mission Bay Drive. $15. www.dizzysjazz.com
If reggae singer Al Anderson had played guitar with Bob Marley's band, his place in music history would be secure. Throw in the fact that he's also performed with James Brown, Stevie Wonder, The Rolling Stones and countless others, and you have a certified legend. Appearing at The Griffin on
Nov. 23 with his band, The Original Wailers, Anderson has just released his band's debut EP "Miracle," but the biggest cheers will likely be for Marley's hits like "No Woman, No Cry." Reggae has never been more popular in San Diego — if you're a fan in the slightest you won't want to miss this concert.
• The Original Wailers perform at 9 p.m. on Friday, Nov. 23 at The Griffin, 1310 Morena Blvd. 21 and up. $25. www.thegriffinsd.com
On Nov. 24, the intimate confines of The Tiki House will host one of the area's top cover bands — Dazed & Confused. As the name implies, the band specializes in the music of Led Zeppelin, and few play it better. While the evening will concentrate on the hits, Dazed & Confused is also adept at deeper catalog tracks, making this show a Zep fan's dream come true. You won't hear any songs newer than three decades old, but if you have a passion for classic rock, this band's set will thrill you to the bone.
• Dazed & Confused performs at 9 p.m. on Saturday, Nov. 24 at The Tiki House, 1152 Garnet Ave. Cover TBD. 21 and up. www.tikipb.com
Jam band Giant Peach performs at Tio Leo's on Nov. 24. While the group includes music in its repertoire ranging from the Beatles to Neil Young, what sets it apart is that it also play its own material — all cut from the same cloth as the music of their heroes. Jam bands often get a bad rap because of its perceived endless noodling. However, anyone who wants their listening experience to consist of well-played music with extra solos, amped-up percussion and a festival atmosphere will find much to enjoy in Giant Peach.
• Giant Peach performs at 9 p.m. on Saturday, Nov. 24 at Tio Leo's, 5302 Napa St. 21 and up. Cover TBD. www.tioleos.com
Although it's been nearly three decades since its heyday, British hard-rock quintet UFO shows no signs of slowing down. Appearing at Brick by Brick on Nov. 25, the band is currently touring behind its best album in years, "Seven Deadly." However, the biggest cheers from the crowd inevitably will come for their prime-era classics like "Too Hot To Handle" and "Only You Can Rock Me." Rock fans can rest assured the band still puts on a heck of a show — even after 30 years on the road, it can still show today's young rock contenders a thing or three.
• UFO performs at 8 p.m. on Sunday, Nov. 25 at Brick by Brick, 1130 Buenos Ave. 21 and up. $25. www.brickbybrick.com


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"If you're in a satellite looking down on Canada, it would be white from coast to coast to coast and it would be frozen," said David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment Canada. "There's no area that can say that winter hasn't really arrived."On Saturday, airlines at Pearson spent the day clearing a backlog from more than 300 flights that had been cancelled after a snowstorm swept through on Friday. New winter storm warnings from Environment Canada were issued Sunday for much of southern Ontario, southwestern Quebec and the Maritimes, as well as southern British Columbia. Freezing windchill warnings were issued for the Prairies and northern Ontario. Up to 30 centimetres of snow were expected Sunday evening in parts of New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island. In the south coast of B.C., 15 centimetres fell Sunday and another 5 to 10 centimetres were expected over night, Environment Canada said.
Snowfall and blizzard warnings, along with wind warnings for Vancouver Island, have been issued for parts of the Fraser Valley.The temperature dropped to –15.2 C at Vancouver International Airport on Friday night. Forecasts for some regions in B.C., such as the Yoho and Kootenay National parks, included frostbite warnings as the wind chill is expected to make it feel as low as –48 .