text:
shares: 2012 review HYP
by ermine
10 comments
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A look back at three years of a high yield portfolio and a look forward to 2013
MarkyMark's got it right – January is a long cold month of introspection. It's time to look at my stock portfolio and ask myself – is this working for me of where things have gone, where they're going and all that. The standard mantra for stock market investing is you should buy an index fund and sit on it. That's probably a good way to save for retirement, but I want an income from it, and I am awkward and different anyway. Doing it in an ISA makes it easy to ask the fundamental question that a stock portfolio ought to be able to answer.
Would I be better off in the bank?
To answer that question I have to ask myself the question
What steady rate of interest would a bank have had to offer me, on the money I put into the ISA and at the times I put it into the ISA, so that the total return + capital value is the same as the total value of stock + cash in the ISA?
Now it's not necessarily a fair question to ask of a high yield portfolio (HYP) that's been running for a while 1 – but in some ways it's a fair question to ask of any stock portfolio. Because I switched ISA provider I don't have the details of when I contributed money, but I do have the information of the total amount I put into it in any year in a separate spreadsheet.
It's also not the question many people ask of their share activities. It's easy to look at the winners and pat yourself on the back, which quietly ignoring what didn't go so well.
Success has many fathers yet failure is a bastard.
Using the total gets round that problem, as it automatically integrates every share and every transaction cost, wit one exception. That's what it would cost to liquidate the portfolio and turn it back into cash. That's about £12.50*15 which knocks about 0.5% off the total, but I'm planning to live off the income, not sell up, so I'll ignore that.
I modelled this in Excel, assuming I put the total ISA amount into a bank at the beginning of the relevant year and they paid me interest at the end of the year, which obviously adds to the stake for next year. It's an overestimate of what actually happens. I try and spread myself across the year, but I am an opportunistic ermine, I'll hit it harder and earlier if things like the Summer of 2011 happen.
The first thing is to take a step back and look at the big picture. I started in April 2009 so anybody can be a shit-hot stock market investor in a rising market with a 20% uplift from the start 😉 An FTAS index would do nicely, though not as nicely as you would think comparing the April 2009 value and now because I wouldn't have bought three and a half years' allowance all in one go.
The capital gain is 7% and the divi gain is 8% of the current value. I calculated capgain by taking the appreciation on total cash put in and subtracting the sum of all dividends paid over all time. Since it's run as a HYP for about three years one would divide those gains by three years to get p.a. returns and then compensate for the fact the stake was less for most of the time.
The proper way to do this is using XIRR but I was lazy so I set Excel up to run a parallel simulation of a bank account with the periodic ISA cash added, and scaled by a nominal interest added annually. I then fiddled with the interest value to get the end result to match the total value of the ISA. To do that a bank account compounding at 8% p.a. was the answer, it's 9% now.
It all doesn't amount to a hill of beans because of volatility in the capital value
I started writing this post a couple of weeks ago. What's been clearly apparent in the ridiculous January rally we've had this year is that this isn't the right way to do this job. I've just recalcuated this (29/1/13) and the figures are 9% and 7%, because the capgain has gone up but nobody's paid me a dividend in the last couple of weeks. Which is good in one way, but a bastard as far as making sense of what's going on. When I started writing this I thought integrating over three years will smooth the peaks and troughs enough to get a long view. It isn't. Because the capital value even of a HYP is 20-25 times the income, variations in the capgain dominate the result, and these vary directly with the market. The sheer amount of uncertainty and noise this imposes upon the outcome makes it impossible to draw any meaningful conclusions from the question what rate of interest a bank would have to offer me to match the current outcome. However, the alternative, looking at the stability of the dividend income as a proportion of what I contributed, does provide some support for the reason I started down a HYP path.
The other bugger is that it's hard to tell what inflation is these days. The Bank of England tells me inflation averaged 5% a year 2009-11 – they don't go as far as 2012 yet. They do, however, use the infernal CPI measure, and RPI is closer to my experience of inflation over the long run.
RPI: Index level, All items, monthly, UK from Timetric
I was pleasantly surprised to observe it wasn't quite that bad. So do I knock off 4 or 5% for inflation? As such I am a little short of the design spec of a HYP – to yield about 1/20th of the capital value while increasing the capital by about inflation. Like anything in the messy real world I won't take away from that that this will go on forever, but at least it is integrated over several years. The lower volatility of income relative to capital is already apparent. The total figure also includes all trading losses and losses associated with some foolishness three years ago with BP and Barclays as I reminded myself why I am a rotten trader and before I stopped that 😉 Some of that foolery cost me performance, but it will slowly fade in significance with time. It is notable that most of the churn has dropped away.
I did calculate what that was equivalent to as a daily compounded rate which is what my cash ISA is but for 8% it's not different enough to show. That's about the same as The Accumulator's Slow and Steady portfolio over the last two years. I'm not sure is TA has done the bank account simulation or calculated the XIRR so I'm not dead sure I am comparing like with like. I was going to use index funds to benchmark this until iii kicked me out but TA's results will do this job for me.
If I were living off this HYP the divis are real and can't be clawed back, whereas a growth portfolio is still all at risk in the market. I have to actively stick my winning chips back into the casino 😉 That subtle difference is what I like about a HYP. I am still sticking the chips back, because I don't need the income now.
I don't aim to sell. Once you have about 20 stocks (I haven't yet) you can let a stock go down the pan every few years, if that really is the price of inaction. None of mine are anywhere in this position. I found Kirby's article, and Monevator's original HYP article, and Legg Mason's article, and my Dad's experience compelling enough. Curiously, in his latest article, Monevator talks about selling criteria, while acknowledging
I also have no trading strategy because I'll make it up on the hoof. In my view, once you've decided to go to the dark side and buy individual shares rather than passive funds, you must do it your way. I believe active investment is at best an art not a science (at worst it's an illusion) so no firm rules.
I think he's looking at the wrong end of the telescope here. The aim of a HYP is not to sell. However, you do get to choose when to buy. Valuation may illuminate that decision. Last year I have had a watchlist of potential HYP share candidates, and got iii to email me if the value of these shares falls below a certain point. They emailed me about BBY which I had selected as a candidate, partly because I have nothing in that sector. Last November BBY has a poor interim update and the share price dropped below the trigger point. I took a look at what was up, but couldn't actually see how the firm was about to go bust, or generally why people were getting their knickers in that much of a twist. So I had some of that, and it's done well since. If you're going to buy and hold for dividends, what you pay in the first place matters. I took some learning from RSA, who at least I am square with now – the loss of capital is counterweighted by the accumulated dividends.
That method is not foolproof. I can be more fool that the system is clever. AGK doesn't even fit into the HYP metrics so it really should be considered as a rush of blood to the head. I can afford the odd thing like that. Not too many – about one a year is OK.
Targeting firms on my watchlist when they go down, evaluating why and taking a view on whether it is serious or not has helped with adding to existing holdings earlier. It worked on NWBD when I added a lump to the existing holding for less than I paid the first time. To my puzzlement a share I bought for the 10% yield is actually higher on capgain than it's paid in dividends. This particular sort of share would be expected to depreciate in value over time as it's fixed interest so I don't know what's up with that capital gain. Perhaps it will disappear in the mythical recovery that's been a year round the corner for the last two years. So what. It's up to other parts of the HYP to do the heavy lifting then.
Sod determining selling criteria I say. It's buying criteria you need for a HYP. For instance I observe some of RIT's cogitations on the valuation of the S&P500 in terms of CAPE10 because I need some global diversification. At the moment the conclusion is the time is not right, hopefully Obama and the GOP will get into a good old hissy fit and have a punch-up about raising the debt ceiling and drag it out long enough to get into the start of the new ISA year. Because I know jack about the US market and it would be dear for me to buy individual shares I am fine with an S&P index fund there, or perhaps a Dividend Aristocrats fund which is more in keeping with a HYP. At the right price, which is about 2/3 of what it is now unless earnings rise. And I'm still after a Grexit, though the way things are going we will see a Brexit first. Which should be kind of interesting, in a Chinese proverbial way. Possibly useful, too.
Inflation is the endless concern. I have a fair amount tied up in cash, and inflation is busy at work destroying the value of it. QE is working through the system and this leads to inflation, effective £ devaluation and is a positive for the stock market.
I have too much in cash, and need to reduce the exposure to a falling £ which will destroy the real value of some of my networth. In my pension AVCs I may re-enter the market with the L&G global index fund with half the capital, even though I will probably call on this is in less than the five years that people normally say is a minimum for share holdings. I may hedge half my remaining cash holdings in an evenly balanced (at the outset) mix of USD, CHF, CAD, AUD, CNY using IG index. There are running costs associated with that, however, and various other issues.
I also hold cash for the usual emergency fund purposes and an extra lump for a flat roof, because a flat roof lives on borrowed time as soon as it is made. You must never take a risk with an emergency fund, so most of mine is lodged with National Savings and Investments in their ILSCs which offer a tax-free RPI uplift to stop it dying slowly. Plus some in a Cash ISA for liquidity, which unfortunately is probably about 5% less valuable than when I opened it, and in future decades to come the combined two years' worth of Cash ISA allowance will probably buy me a packet of peanuts and a pint of milk. There's not much one can do about that sort of thing, and the sensible thing to do would probably be to add it to my S&S ISA. Perhaps in that mythical recovery it will be possible to get a decent return on cash. Unlike some I don't expect a real return on cash, just going back and finding the same amount of real value as it was when I put it away will do me fine.
You save for liquidity and invest for return. The deal used to be that you get a paltry return but no depreciation for liquidity and a long-term return but short term risk and volatility for investments, but at the moment the cash/liquidity depreciates dangerously. Turn your back on a lump of cash for five years and you'll lose a quarter of its real worth.
The tribulations of a falling currency
Most people first notice a falling currency when they go on holiday, and then they notice it in a delayed way as the price of everything slowly goes up. Just look at the innocence of the sleight of hand applied by Harold Wilson
[iframe http://www.youtube.com/embed/mIQnpoGBS1I?rel=0480 360]And people believed him for a while, FFS! Of course, the Britain of 1967 actually made stuff, and probably grew some of its own food and mined its own coal, which generated power, was turned into gas and heated homes, so Wilson has a small point. Unlike the Britain of 2013, which does none of the energy things and is depleting the oil bonanza that enabled it to stop doing those. The FT made the case in 2008 that the pound is experiencing a step-change down and it looks like the process is continuing. If you hold your wealth in cash denominated in pounds, it's been getting worth a lot less over time.
There's not much most people will or can do about that. Investors holding equities or land, or real stuff, even, though I hate to (cough, splutter) say it, property, will experience less of that effect.
However, there is a nasty insidious effect of it. They will often tend to become poorer investors. The falling pound will make them believe their stock-picking or asset selection is shit hot, and confirm existing biases. I did well with my HYP. So what. It was nothing that special. Everybody had a stonking run in 2012. Were they all brilliantly clever? Or did the rising tide lift all boats, and more to the point, is there an earthquake under the beach lowering it – the value of what they are measuring their success is draining away as the endless rounds of quantitative easing destroys the yardstick they are using as a reference.
Macro issues for 2013
On the macro upside there is less worry about Eurogeddon, which probably means it will happen this year while everybody is looking the other way. I was buying a HSBC European index fund regularly and have been most pissed off to see it gradually rise, as I expected to buy into increasing Eurogeddon. I don't have the chutzpah to actually buy GREK. A lot of this, of course, is the creeping death of the pound, I'm not that sure CPEI has done anything to justify its 17% rise on purchase price, other than to sit on its backside and watch the £ devalue somewhat, abetted a tad by hedgies thinking less unkindly about the euro than the pound.
The US still owes a shedload of money, and the polarization to the political scene there will probably lead to a suboptimal fight about that. The narrative is better told by Dr Doom himself in the Grauniad, he is predicting (wait for it) Doom in 2013.
On the non-financial front there's the forthcoming bombing of the Iranians by Israel and associated punch-up and oil spike/new plateau. There are fifty shades of shit going down in Arab nations and various messy bits of unfinished business left behind by the Project for a New American Century who seem to have gone into suspended animation in 2006, presumably to work out why it all seemed to go wrong.
There is globalisation in general, which is making it very hard to work out what a life well lived and how to fund it looks like in the UK, particularly to those starting their working lives. On the upside they have better technology, better communications, better health, and can look forward to a much longer life that those that have gone before. On the downside they are in a jelly-like unstable world that makes it hard to get set right in the beginning, and they must continually adapt to roiling change, and the relative decline of the status of their nations relative to the rest of the world.
It's not a cloudless horizon, despite the euphoria in the stock market.
A HYP rather than a passive index portfolio.
So many PF blogs consider the non-rational the enemy within. Psy–Fi has a long list of irrational ways people can give themselves the shaft and there's a tightened up version on Monevator. I've always felt a little bit uncomfortable with that perspective, in a sort of yeah-but way. The trouble is that saving for the future is also irrational – you have to go without now. There is no objective value to be placed on an individual's future value of money, what's right for you isn't right for me. Doing without £1000 in real terms is a damn sight easier for me now than it was when I was 25 or 35.
Unless you inherit your wealth like Petra Ecclestone, you have to save it from earnings to get your foot in the door. It's crystallised life energy you have to save, the result of precious years of your life surrendered to The Man, and you have to save a lot to actually shift the needle on the dial – your target income * 20, to a first approximation. Saving £500 or £1000 here or there ain't gonna cut it unless you do it regularly for years. You need nearly six figures just to match JSA, and there are enough people out there saying that's not nearly enough to do anything with. You need £150k to save enough to pay yourself the basic State Pension of £140 p.w.
Over a 40 year working life that is still a big ask – compound interest will help but it probably won't double your money, and a hard twist of fate means that you will usually be able to save much more in your later working life than when you start out. It was the power of irrational fears that made me save more than the ordinary. So I am going to raise a glass to the unquantifiable world of values, and why you do what you do. Eliminate behavioural biases where you can, but deep at the heart of much of the malaise in the West is the search to paint the world by numbers alone. Oscar Wilde was right when he poked fun at people who know the price of everything and the value of nothing. This is about values. I couldn't honestly say to someone about to start work that saving for a pension is the rational thing to do.
Many young people take the same approach as the Lotus-Eater, and to be honest, I think that's probably the most rational thing to do, because of the unknowability of the world in 40 or 50 years' time, and the absence of a secure store of value over that sort of time period. I would be surprised if this sort of thing didn't happen somewhere in the West in the intervening time. I knew someone from Germany personally who had lost their life savings – twice, in things like that. It was the ownership of land, and a more stable human network of connections of the sort that we have deliberately eliminated in modern societies in the search of equality that meant she had anything left.
Capitalism just does that in combination with the frailty of human societies. Every few generations it has a massive hissy fit and destroys shedloads of worth, value and promises of future gains. Just because it can. This isn't Schmupeterian destruction, it's just capitalism amplifying the madness of crowds. It seems to need to do this every so often, because it is not unconditionally stable, and there is no generally accepted external reference point that will hold its head while all around are losing theirs.
Eighty long years have rolled by since the 1930s, and people built firewalls and distant early warning lines against it happening again. Only seventy of those needed to pass before Bill Clinton had so much cock that he saw fit to repeal the Glass-Steagall protections that held some of the demons at bay. Let us assume that we find a way to stabilise and set in train protections against what happened in 2007/8/9. I will confidently predict that even if all the other macro hazards to humanity are avoided, when the young people entering finance in their twenties over the next few years have reached their eighties and nineties, those protections will have been weakened, because they get in the way of Progress. And so the cycle will turn, and start anew 😉
I use a HYP for my shares, rather than index-tracking. Why do I do that? Poor old Monevator is scratching his head on there wondering what's up with people
I am not saying they are right to find index funds distasteful. I am saying I have met many people who do, and I have failed to convince them otherwise.
Index funds have their place – even in a HYP I will use them for markets and areas I know little about or can't access economically. Here are some reasons and gut feelings it doesn't convince me across the board. Some of them aren't logical, and I am perfectly prepared to pay the price of that.
- First and foremost, the whole living off the income thing. Most people are building a retirement fund over decades, and the yearly value doesn't matter other than to their sleep patterns. I have about 8 years, and probably less, to start living off the income. I'm not rich enough to accept the returns on passive index funds and I have had bad experiences of income volatility from things like IUKD that aren't passive at all though they look it. If you want income early in your investing life, you fly this damn thing on manual or you do without the income.
The first point is a reason, and a compelling one against using index funds, IMO, because of my atypical situation of a short horizon that can live with market risk, because I have defined benefit pension savings elsewhere. The others are prejudices 😉
- It didn't work for me in the early 2000s. Obviously there's sample bias there, after all the 20% gains I made in my AVC fund using L&G's Global index are a counterfactual. But the alternative was cash in a devaluing background of government
money printingQE. 'nuff said. Most of the gain there was due to the government devaluing Sterling 20% by printing money. In many ways saving money from the depths of a global financial near death experience while the government is doing its damnedest to destroy the real value of money and the real value of its debts is the canonical sort of thing index investing is designed for. The Telegraph is full of old buffers who don't get this. You don't fight governments, you try and roll with the punches they throw. They are the 900lb gorilla and you aren't, unless your Warren Buffett or the Rothschilds and even they aren't big enough to fight the Fed. It all involves risk and nothing is for sure in this world, though cash melting through your fingers in the next few years is as close to a dead cert as you can get. If I have any cash when we experience the next crash I will do the same. You don't need to think about investing from that sort of base, you just need to do it. Pretty much anything will do, and in the fog of war at least the index is unlikely to go bust. - One day, Vanguard will have its rogue trader or internal thief. Money is power, and power corrupts. Why did Al Capone rob banks? Because that's where the money was! I may buy some Vanguard Lifestrategy as part of my portfolio because it will form only part of the whole, but a whole 100% Vanguard index portfolio with nothing else? Do you feel lucky, punk? Other firms do index funds too, sometimes you hafta pay a little more TER for the insurance of provider diversity 😉
- The backstory. What exactly do you get when you buy an index fund? I own a small slice of DLG, BBY, GSK, NG., RSA etc. I know what these guys do. I can see their boots on the ground. Some build houses, some write car insurance, others make pills. What does the FTSE100 index do? Six years ago it was banking. In 1999 it was tech. It was oil recently. I can't relate to that. The index fails the Henry Kissinger 'Who do you call' test.
- I like dividends. They slowly buy me out of mistakes. They give me an income without having to sell units. Although intellectually I can understand profit comes from capital gains and divis, selling units feels like selling down capital. In a multifund ISA, selling units forces me to make decisions about which holdings to sell. I hate that. I need more dividend yield than that on most indexes.
- Track record. It's worked well, particularly for people who were catatonic and sat on their hands!
- Index investing is passively active by definition – it is rebalanced quarterly by the index. A true HYP becomes unbalanced (unless added to each year). I am beginning to wonder if that is such a bad thing as it's made out to be, since the unbalance comes from success – if it all comes from failure you're gonna be dead anyway. Say an HYP designed in 1980 held the minnow MSFT. Should it have kept selling the swelling behemoth?
- A HYP that has cash added to yearly can try and balance sectors with the added money. That's probably good diversification (indirectly pushes you to buy low). It's also a perfect fit for an S&S ISA. Kirby's 1984 article leads me to suspect actively selling parts of a steady state HYP to rebalance isn't necessarily good diversification. This isn't going to be a problem for me for a few years yet. Next year's annual allowance is 20% of the total, which is plenty of rebalancing. Although that percentage falls, the divis start to help out with rebalancing until you start drawing from the portfolio.
- A multi-decade HYP will integrate several business cycles, and see a lot of inflation. It'll see different sectors skyrocket and pan. So what? Watching the world go by is what old money does while pursuing its other interests, all the time collecting the rent.
However, in other respects I pretty much run like Monevator's approach. Sit tight. Do as little as possible. Yes, I've had to deal with corporate actions like NG's rights issue shenanigans. Paradoxically I had to sell some index funds when iii threatened to start charging transaction fees on those, other than that I've sold n'owt since going HYP, with the exception of a slug of Direct Line's IPO. There I had to pitch for more than I wanted because of the risk of getting knocked back, selling the excess at a modest gain. As it is I still have too much insurance and no oil firms or mining. The latter seem to be having a little of a hard time at the moment which is good for me if it carries on to April (my ISA is maxed out at the moment). I reinvest dividends, and shall continue to do so until I have no free cash left to live on or I start drawing my pension. In the latter case I will continue to reinvest dividends, because I maximise the tax shelter and I expect governments to get extremely rapacious in tax terms if and when there is such a thing as a recovery. They got a big hole to fill. The more tax-free incoem I can build up the better I can hold the line against these depradations.
I'm happy with the return and the balance between dividends and capital gain. The steady improvement in the dividend income over the three years is good, it's now enough to make a significant and tax-free addition to my future pension. I'm still less than a third of the way through my journey building this portfolio. As I get into the second half in a few years' time I will probably shift to a index approach for that, because diversification works, and there's no reason not to apply it to investment philosophy 😉 I just didn't want to start with an investment philosophy that bores me and has failed me once before.
- the reason is that a HYP is designed to pay the income, not save for a goal like uni fees or retirement. Its key metrics are do you get the expected income, is the variation on that income acceptable and does the income track inflation in the long run. The total value of the portfolio is not a key metric, if the income is good enough then the HYP is good enough ↩
Wow, quite a summary! I was concerned I'd not got the message across well when I read you comment about me looking through the wrong end of the telescope but then later on you correctly reference my sitting tight approach, so I guess I'm misreading you!?
Re: tracking your returns, I think you might find it best to unitise your portfolio. It's not the only way and has some flaws (my coblogger TA is not a fan) but I think it's superior on balance. It is also how the industry does it, so you can smirky as the Erminefolio outpaces The City's finest. 🙂
(Silly typos, sorry. On iPad!)
Lots of interesting points here.
I find it surprising that the financial industry gets away with hiding behind so much jargon when what customers want to know is exactly what you ask – what equivalent rate would I need to get this performance in a savings account?
The issue gets more complicated with dividends but is not exactly rocket science.
Yes, growth varies wildly but if it doesn't look like you're beating the FTSE (or your mortgage rate) and you're not going to sit it out, then you might as well not bother and buy a tracker or pay it off respectively.
It's a bit complicated to work out admittedly but I use XIRR and your method (which is actually what XIRR does, but a lot more quickly) to calculate the return and I compare my diversified portfolio against the FTSE. In my case, buying equivalent units of ISF whenever I put money in.
At the moment I'm slightly down on ISF and a couple of points above inflation which is not too bad considering I started in 2005, paid in sporadically and didn't really have a strategy until a few years ago.
My portfolio does bear more than a passing resemblance to the Accumulator's Slow and Steady job although the minority UK share portion contains mostly HYP shares. I don't sell anything though and rebalance each time money goes in.
Surely a disadvantage of a HYP is that you're limited to UK FTSE shares? Does this not rule out other asset classes such as other countries and emerging markets?
@Ermine — That's exactly what I mean… my entire article is about how I am NOT intending to trade/sell any shares in my demo HYP.
I am not advocating selling at all!
I do acknowledge in the piece that eventually some selling will likely be required (due to corporate actions and any huge imbalances) but it is very much not on the radar as desirable or planned for.
I am hurt you had to read someone else's article to get that message!
I must be losing my touch. Sniff. 🙁
I'm going to write about Unitising at some point, but here's an article from the Motley Fool in the meantime:
Wowser! Thanks for the link. Gonna digest this article as part of my own introspection. Cheers
I reckon I share a lot of your outlook, E. But I don't really think in terms of having a HYP. I just take each company as it comes. Probably, about 1/2 would be viewed as HYP material in my portfolio, a quarter as "Growth" and another quarter as — well, I don't what.
I rarely sell shares, except to realise an extraordinary capital gain and even then usually just a proportion, e.g. OXIG which I bought in the depths of 2009 and reduced by 50% after a 10x gain (this rarely happens to me). However, this does not usually happen to HYP type shares.
You are right to emphasise buying criteria. This is just Benjamin Graham, after all. and I think you are right, too, to think of rebalancing in terms of buying other shares rather than selling.
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Charged with pepper-spraying people in a May 13 robbery attempt in Mount Pocono, Sean Aris, 21, of Tobyhanna, saw his bail reduced Wednesday from $250,000 secured to $25,000 unsecured, allowing him to go free from Monroe County Correctional Facility to await his next court appearance.
Deeming Aris not to be a flight risk if allowed free on unsecured bail, Tobyhanna Magisterial District Judge Anthony Fluegel granted the bail reduction on condition that Aris avoid any form of contact with the alleged victims. Aris also waived his right to his Wednesday preliminary hearing on the charges.
Pocono Mountain Regional Police said they got a call at 10:53 p.m. May 13 and met the alleged victims at the Dunkin' Donuts on Route 611 in Mount Pocono. Police said the investigation led them to Aris, who was arrested the next day.
Charged with robbery, simple assault, possessing an instrument of crime with intent, reckless endangerment, tampering with/fabricating evidence and theft, Aris will appear at a future date in county court. There, he can go to trial, plead guilty or plead no contest.
Bail reduced for alleged Mount Pocono pepper-spray robber
May 23, 2013 at 12:01 AM

subset: commoncrawl


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They used pencils to wind cassettes and, unbelievably, had the patience for dial-up Internet. Fast forward a few years and these kids, now in their 20s, will cause a scene if the waiter takes longer than five minutes.
Read Whole Story
Computer glitches aside, debate over the Affordable Care Act has magnified in recent months with advocates and adversaries vying for the support of Generation Y (ages 18-34).
Ladies were not young and carefree, as I was. I wasn't a lady. I was a... girl? No. Woman? Maybe, but it didn't feel right. Britney Spears? No. Oh my god. I was a lady. It was a reality check.
We should stop taking our American privilege for granted. More of us need to travel to some of the places that time's forgotten. We need to take a good look at them and then at ourselves. And guess what? We might not have to go farther than our own hometowns to do that.
When I read and see how the millennials conduct themselves, how they date, socialize and lead their lives, I have nothing in my own history to compare it to. That piece on "The End of Courtship" made me feel from another era.
Every generation likes to think they are unique -- but there's a case to be made, between shifting racial demographics, the economy, unprecedented access to technology and the loosening of the marriage timetable, that Gen. Y might actually be "special," for better and worse. Here's why.
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Gail Bonney
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Gail Bonney (15 December 1901 – 7 December 1984; age 82), born Goldie Bonowitz, was a prolific bit actress whose career began in the very late '40s with a handful of appearances. Throughout the '50s, '60s, and the first half of the '70s, she worked steadily, in small parts with fairly generic credits, such as 'Woman', 'Nurse', and similar.
In the Star Trek: The Original Series episode "Catspaw", she appeared as the Second Witch. She filmed her scene on Wednesday 3 May 1967 at Desilu Stage 10.
She died a week shy of her 83rd birthday.


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Watch NDTV English News Channel, NDTV 24x7 News, NDTV Online News Channels, Online free streaming live news, NDTV India news headlines
NDTV News Channel is an Indian English News Channels which is streaming live video is available online on Internet for free. NDTV News provides you headlines tips to trade & share market, online free english news , latest online news free news channel streaming.NDTV News (English) provides latest headlines news tips from India and the world. Get current top stories, business, Trade & Share market, sports and Bollywood headlines and more.
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The Horse Forum
- Horse Conformation Critique
- - Opinions on this mare?
Opinions on this mare? 4 Attachment(s) I posted something like this about the same mare quite a few months ago when I first got her. I got a decent amount of feedback but I now have better pictures of her and I want to see what people think about her before/after. *Please note she is still crazy pregnant and about to pop any day now.* I was looking at older pictures of her and she seems to have become more shapely rather than flat. (Not referring to the baby bump, but her shoulder/rump muscles.) Is this just from being pregnant or have I actually gotten her into a bit better shape? Aside from that I would love to know what people think of her overall conformation. I want to know even the little flaws, just don't make it an insult match. A big one is what could she be suited to do conformation-wise? We are thinking of getting her on the trails and also looking at her potential as a driving horse. What would it take to get her back into shape? Anyone have anything that they would recommend for a horse like her? I would like to absorb any ounce of knowledge people can give me about her conformation. Some extra information; Tenakee is 18 years old, She is broke to ride, but before we got her hadn't been ridden in years, She is a Bashkir Curly, Her pedigree [click here], She's been a broodmare most of her life. Any more questions feel free to ask them, and thank-you in advance. |
Have that baby already!!! lol sorry I'm no help :wink: |
My opinion on her... SHE MUST POP NOW! she is gorgeous! I cant give any confo critique.. but.. ugh.. I want babeh!!!:) |
Overall her conformation looks fine, I can't see any reason why she can't be used for trail riding or driving. |
Withers are a bit muttony and her neck is thick anhd cresty (check her for thyroid and/or Cushings after she folas... I am inclinced to think possible cushings with that crest). Conformation is typical Curly.. sturdy and light draft looking. Nice horse. |
She's be great for trail/driving. With my experience in brood mares they loose the belly rather quickly once they give birth. (given they don't get pregnant again shortly there after) I got my tb unworked and out of shape and long time intervals trotting as well as "hill therapy" will improve strength get her into shape. |
932 Attachment(s) Quote:
This mare does have flaws, but overall, I think she is a lovely girl that is going to be sound, sane and capable throughout her life. Cons: - Long Back - Weak Hindquarters - Very high tailset - Thick neck - Steep/Upright shoulder - Downhill Pros: - Nice set of legs, great bone to them, nice and straight too. - Her topline looks like it has definitely improved in your care. It looks very good, especially for 18 years old...and heavy in foal...As well as considering how many babies she's had previously. - Everything else I haven't mentioned. :-) I really like her. She is a nice girl and your taking great care of her. I can't wait to see what the baby looks like! |
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Puto Amo
Pawm is a simple, small and functional window manager for the X Window system. It manages your X client windows so you can resize, move, minimize them, just that. It's not a 'desktop' and doesn't offer a huge pile of options, just the facilities needed to run your X applications through a friendly and easy to use interface. If you want to run X apps and don't have the time, space or interest in installing kde or gnome, then try pawm. With Pawm you can minimize windows that are placed on a small auto-hide bar at the bottom for a better access to all apps. It also includes a small clock on the bar that can be easily disabled. The libraries included with your XFree86 system are enough to complie pawm- no extra libraries are needed.
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Hey Bombers,
Just got a new MacBook Pro after using my old poo Dell laptop through graduating college. I'm pretty stoked to finally have a computer I can play some games on. I'm not looking for anything crazy, I realize I don't have a gnarly gaming desktop, but was hoping you guys would have some suggestions for cool games I could download off Steam. Smaller titles comparable to XBLA or PSN downloadables are what I'm looking for. I've seen a ton of awesome indie games available through Steam on this site over the past few years, but nothing is popping to mind so I turn to you.
Any suggestions?
Thanks in advance, fellas.


text:
MOBERLY, Mo. (AP) - A leading shingle manufacturing company says it will build a new production facility in the central Missouri town of Moberly.
GAF Roofing said Tuesday that the 320,000-square-foot facility will have the largest production capacity of any shingle manufacturing plant in the industry. It will employ about 125 people and is expected to open by the end of 2017.
The company, headquartered in Wayne, N.J., describes itself as North America's largest roofing manufacturer. The Moberly facility will be GAF's 14th shingle plant and is intended to serve customers throughout the Midwest.
Gov. Jay Nixon said GAF plans to spend about $149 million on the facility.
The Missouri Department of Economic Development says GAF could receive about $5.6 million of state incentives.


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Full profile →'">
The author is a Forbes contributor. The opinions expressed are those of the writer.
(Kitco News) - Gold prices are not straying too far from unchanged levels in early U.S. trading Monday, after hitting a four-month low in overnight trading. There is a lack of major, markets-moving fundamental news in the market place at present, but that could change in the coming days. A heavy slate of worldwide economic data comes out this week, which is likely to impact the markets. August Comex gold was last up $1.10 at $1,247.10 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $5.20 at $1,246.50. July Comex silver last traded up $0.118 at $18.80 an ounce.
In overnight news, the Euro currency was under more selling pressure to start the trading week, which in turn has given a boost to the U.S. dollar index. The European Union's May manufacturing PMI came in at 52.2 versus 53.4 in April. The figure was just a bit weaker than market expectations and helped to pressure the Euro. Focus is turning to Thursday's monthly monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank. It's widely believed the ECB will announce further monetary policy stimulus measures at that meeting. Recent weak European Union economic data and fears of deflation setting in for the EU are solid reasons for the ECB to make a move next week. Such would be another bearish below to the Euro currency.
Meantime, there was upbeat economic data from China released during the weekend. China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.8 in May versus 50.4 in April. Any reading above 50.0 suggests expansion. That news gave a lift to Asian and European stock markets, and is a positive for most raw commodity markets. China is the world's top consumer of raw commodities.
The big U.S. data point of the week is Friday's Labor Department employment situation report for May. The early forecast is for non-farm payrolls to have increased 215,000 in the report.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. manufacturing PMI, construction spending, and the ISM manufacturing report on business.
Wyckoff's Daily Risk Rating: 5.5 (The Russia-Ukraine crisis has not escalated and the rest of the world is quieter regarding geopolitics.)
(Wyckoff's Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.
The London A.M. gold fix is $1,244.75 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,250.50.
Technically, August gold futures bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. A 10-week-old downtrend line is in place on the daily bar chart. However, the market is short-term oversold and due for at least an upside corrective bounce very soon. The gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,268.50. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,220.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,251.00 and then at Friday's high of $1,260.60. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,241.10 and then at $1,235.00.
July silver futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage after prices Friday hit a contract low. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $19.50 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $18.00. First resistance is seen at $19.00 and then at $19.155. Next support is seen at the contract low of $18.615 and then at $18.50.
Related Stories:
By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; firstname.lastname@example.com
Follow me on Twitter @jimwyckoff


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Sunny today; clouds, rain chance Sunday
Orange County's weather remains firmly in the pleasant category through Saturday, with plenty of sunshine in the forecast and high temperatures in the 60s.
But clouds should make an appearance by Sunday, with a chance of rain Sunday and Monday, the National Weather Service says.
That's when a system of low-pressure air moves over Southern California, bringing light rain as early as Sunday morning.
The change is expected to begin Saturday night, when airflow shifts back toward land from the ocean. In the meantime, high pressure continues its reign.
Friday looks sunny and 64 to 69 with winds remaining light. Overnight temperatures could dip into the 30s, as they have the past few nights; after that, nighttime lows should stay in the 40s through at least the middle of next week.
Saturday looks mostly sunny and 63 to 68, with a clear evening that turns partly cloudy later.
Then Sunday is partly cloudy with a chance of rain and highs of 57 to 62.
Sunday night turns mostly cloudy; add a slight chance of thunderstorms to the chance of rain, a possible result of cold, unsettled air.
Monday is mostly cloudy with a chance of rain, highs 59 to 64.
Rainfall amounts are uncertain, but could end up in the tenth- to fourth-inch range, with more in the mountains.
We should return to mostly cloudy skies Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs should be 61 to 66 Tuesday, then 63 to 68 inland Wednesday, about 63 on the coast.
Thursday could be mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain, with highs of 57 to 62, as another low-pressure system moves in, though the timing is so far uncertain.
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RALEIGH, N.C. — Changes in brain function may foreshadow schizophrenia as early as puberty, nearly a decade before most patients begin showing obvious symptoms, new research from the University of North Carolina shows.
Researchers in Chapel Hill looked at brain scans of 42 children, some as young as 9, who had close relatives with schizophrenia. They saw that many of the children already had areas of the brain that were "hyper-activated" in response to emotional stimulation and tasks that required decision-making, said Aysenil Belger, associate professor of psychiatry at the UNC School of Medicine and lead author of the study.
"These children are trying extra hard to do something that other children are able to do without so much effort," Belger said.
Belger said her team's findings could help establish an earlier diagnosis of the brain disease and ultimately point to techniques for offsetting or minimizing disease progression.
"We are interested in seeing if we can find some way to intervene," Belger added.
Among the possibilities for treatment are hormone therapies, cognitive skills training and new medicines to improve brain function.
People who have a parent or sibling with schizophrenia are about 10 times more likely to develop the disease than those who do not. Signs of the illness typically begin in the late teens to mid-20s. These include declines in memory, intelligence and other brain functions that indicate a weakening in the brain's processing abilities. More advanced symptoms may include paranoid beliefs and hallucinations.
Belger and her research team have been involved in previous studies that identified at-risk teens beginning at age 16.
The latest study, published in the March 6 issue of the online journal Psychiatry Research: Neuroimaging, intentionally drew its subjects from a younger age group.
"We were interested in seeing if being a first-degree family member of someone with schizophrenia meant their brains were already different," Belger said.
The scientists examined brain activity using functional magnetic resonance imaging while the children solved problems or viewed pictures designed to trigger emotional responses.
"Puberty is a particularly important time because that's when the brain changes tremendously, both functionally and structurally," Belger said. "These changes are accompanied by cognitive and emotional changes, but they don't all happen at the same pace. The emotional area tends to develop faster than the decision-making areas. That's why teenagers are very emotional and impulsive. For most people, this imbalance is temporary — when puberty is over, at some point, your cognition and emotions become regulated. But for some people this doesn't happen."
The researchers hope to learn more about brain development in at-risk youth by continuing to follow the subjects of their research over the next several years.
"Of all the people who seem to have compromised circuitry in their brain, if we come back and image them in later years, some may be moving toward the cluster of symptoms for schizophrenia while others may have other types of deficits," such as bipolar disorder or attention deficit disorder, Belger said.
Still others may avoid serious disorders altogether.
"Our brains all have different strengths and can be efficient in different ways," Belger said. "Some may be able to compensate. We don't exactly understand all the key components at play here."
The team's research is being funded by the National Institute of Mental Health and the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. Co-authors included Diana Perkins, who is the founder and director of UNC's Outreach And Support Intervention Services program for adolescents and young adults who are experiencing or are at risk for developing psychosis.
Tyrone Cannon, a professor of psychology at Yale University who has worked with Belger and Perkins on previous research, said the latest findings line up with studies showing that these brain disorders often start with increased neurological activity.
"When you have a brain that is only partially disordered, the individual can sometimes still compensate by activating even more in those areas that are used to solve the task," Cannon said.
Environment and other factors also come into play, but are not well understood, Cannon pointed out.
However, researchers have determined that individuals with brain disorders such as schizophrenia or bipolar typically cope better in settings where relationships and social expectations are consistent.
"The best way to reduce all these negative stress hormones is through a predictable social environment that is tight-knit emotionally," Belger explained. "That means having friends or other people around who can provide social feedback and warmth."
Distributed by MCT Information Services


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Wrapping up the "Invest in America, Commit to the Future" bus tour in Texas
This morning, our bus pulled up to its second-to-last stop: Garland, Texas, a city of about 200,000 outside Dallas.
If you've been following along with our tour, you know that, at previous stops, my team and I have disembarked the bus to see infrastructure projects underway – highways, bridges, transit lines – all things that are helping improve lives and promote commerce.
But I wasn't in Garland to see anything, so to speak. And that's because there isn't funding to build it.
The expansion of the Lyndon Johnson Freeway in Garland is one of countless projects across the country that needs to be tackled, but can't because we aren't adequately investing in our infrastructure. Dallas and the surrounding area sit at the center of one of the fastest-growing regions in the country, and they desperately need new roads to help reduce congestion and to create jobs, as well.
In fact, the people of Garland know building roads can grow the economy because they've seen it before.
Eight years ago, Texas' DOT announced that they were building a frontage to connect this city's Centerville Marketplace with the highway. They said they'd put $10 million into the project, which as far as roads go, isn't a lot. But from that 10 million, more than $25 million poured in to redevelop the marketplace, spurring on the creation of new jobs and new businesses.
These are the kinds of investments we need to make all over the country. And my hope is that, if we do, the next time I go back to Garland, there will be a new highway there to see.
After my stop in Garland, I finished my bus tour by speaking to the Dallas Regional Chamber of Commerce. It was a great opportunity to talk to business leaders in the region about how investments in infrastructure are absolutely crucial to the health of our nation's economy.
Even though my bus tour is over, you can be sure that I will continue to spread the message that America's economic growth depends on good transportation infrastructure, and good transportation depends on the funding stability that can only be found in a multi-year transportation bill.
Check out the highlights of my trip at http://www.dot.gov/invest-in-america.
And if you haven't already, send us your transportation story at email@example.com. We'll add these stories to our bus tour website, so everyone can see the difference transportation makes in our everyday lives.


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2014 Cap & Tassel Chalk Graduate Announcement (red)
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Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have been considered a gold standard for health and social service research for generations of professionals. However, even as methods have developed to accommodate a large number of professional perspectives and fields of intervention, few have adequately addressed the complex nature of RCTs conducted in community settings. In this book, Drs. Solomon, Cavanaugh, and Draine draw on their extensive experience conducting randomized controlled trials to compile a practical and accessible guide to RCTs in community-based practice settings. While providing a deta ... More
Keywords: randomized controlled trials, evaluation research, evidence-based practice, intervention research, applied research, community-based psychosocial intervention
Print publication date: 2009 | Print ISBN-13: 9780195333190 |
Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: May 2009 | DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195333190.001.0001 |


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Re: How to choose real positive solutions only?
Manfred, Let's say that your complex answers are in a variable called 'ans' that is a list of the form a-> x + iy Then do something like realAns := ans a/. Select[ans,(FreeQ[#,Complex])&] HTH .....Terry Dix, Manfredo A wrote: >Hello, >this question probably came up before, but anyway: > >suppose I have a system of 3 equations and 3 unknowns, >which I want to solve numerically with NSolve. >They are polynomial of degree "n" so that I get n solutions. > >Is there a way to tell Mathematica to just return the >real positive solutions, and dismiss the imaginary and negative >ones? > >thank you so much for any help, >cordially, > >Manfred >mdix at tulane.edu > > > >


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GRANTS PASS, Ore. - A new study suggests warming temperatures predicted over the next century could boost tree growth on Northwest forests, but less so at lower elevations where most of the timber is and temperatures are already warm.
Researchers from Oregon State University and the U.S. Forest Service calculated an increase in forest growth rates in Oregon and Washington of between 2 percent and 12 percent by the end of the century, when climate models predict temperatures to be between 0.9 degrees and 6.7 degrees higher than they are now.
The greatest increases are likely at higher elevations, where temperatures are cold and growth rates have been low.
The lowest increases in growth, and even decreases, would be at lower elevations, where temperatures are already warm and growth rates have been high.
"There's a lot of variability here, depending on which climate scenario turns out to be most accurate and what policy changes are made as a result," co-author Darius Adams, a professor of forest economics at OSU, said in a statement. "And there are dramatic differences in forest regions and elevations."
Maps in the study showed the lowest growth rates in southwestern Oregon's Klamath Mountains and the east side of the Cascade Range, where temperatures are warm and rain is limited. The highest growth rates showed in the Olympic Mountains and Northern Cascades of Washington and the Blue Mountains of Oregon.
The study focused on predicted changes in temperature, and did not take into account factors such as changes in the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and wildfire, said lead author Gregory Latta, a forest economist at Oregon State.
Researchers plan to expand the study to coastal Alaska.
The authors noted that legislation to control global warming includes a role for forests as an important means of storing carbon to limit the growth of greenhouse gases.
In the study, the authors said that private forests, which account for 45 percent of timberlands and 83 percent of the Northwest's timber harvest, will have a tough time maintaining current production levels, because they are generally at lower elevations. Harvest there is already at 104 percent of current growth rates.
Federal forests tend to be at higher elevations, where they account for 47 percent of the timber base and just 6 percent of the harvest, and will tend to increase the amount of carbon they store, the study said.
The scientists used four different computer models of changing climate conditions, a national inventory of forest growth, and past temperature and rainfall data to project growth at five-year intervals through the end of the 21st century.
The study was published in the journal Forest Ecology and Management and was funded by the U.S. Forest Service.
The General Accounting Office this week reported that the U.S. Forest Service devotes $9 million to researching ways of helping forests and grasslands adapt to a changing climate, and the agency feels it needs to make global warming a more prominent part of its decision-making process.
Oregon State ecology professor Mark Harmon, who was not part of the study, said while it is difficult to consider everything, he had reservations about the approach, which left out factors such as the increasing amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
"There are people who do suspect that lower elevation forests have problems with water, even if precipitation stays constant, because it will effectively be drier," Harmon said. "But there is this issue that trees do respond to (increases in) carbon dioxide. One of the things that happens is they become better at using water.
"Those kinds of mechanisms aren't in their model at all."
Steven W. Running, professor of ecology at the University of Montana and a lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's latest report on global warming, said in an e-mail that the study "gives results consistent with what theory would suggest," adding that the climate models project similar temperature trends but a wide range of rainfall.
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Meet Heimo Korth – a rare specimen of a man. Leaving his native Wisconsin as a young man in the 1970s he followed the call of his wild heart to Alaska, settling over 100 miles from his nearest neighbour – far north of the Arctic circle. There he taught himself the skills necessary to survive in the harsh, demanding Alaska wilds. Trapping, hunting, fishing, canoeing and emergency survival skills formed the basis of his more than two decade stay on the tundra.
While his long solitary winter trapping season was relieved by yearly trips into town to re-stock and sell fur, he lived alone for the first six years in tiny log cabins. Heimo learned to hunt whales, walrus and seals during spring visits to the barren St. Lawrence Island where he also met Edna, the woman who would become his wife, bear his children and raise them in one of the handful of subsistence living families in Alaska.
Though gregarious and well liked by those with the chance to know him, Heimo values his family's privacy and distance from the outside world. Despite his inclusion in a 1992 National Geographic Arctic documentary, Heimo is inherently a modest and seclusive man. When initially approached by James Campbell – a writer for National Geographic and a cousin he barely knew – with the offer to write his story, Heimo refused. Campbell doesn't reveal the reasons for Heimo's eventual acquiescence; based upon his passion for Alaska's wilderness I would surmise that it has more to do with providing a written record preserving his vanishing way of life, than with his cousin's pleas.
Combining first-hand accounts from visits with the Korth family, stories recalled from Heimo's past and a thorough knowledge of the forces that have shaped Alaska Campbell masterfully portrays the spirit of Alaska as embodied by one man. Connecting interviews with Alaskans (peppered with the gritty, mildly foul language common to all frontiers) to extensive research on the history of uniquely Alaskan issues: wildlife reserves, land allocation, oil pipelines, native and animal rights Campbell concludes that Heimo's way of life is no longer freely available or desired by many. As such, The Final Frontiersman provides what will certainly become a classic snapshot of a dying way of life in Alaska.
Campbell visited the Korths on their traplines and in town, traveling to Alaska each season to more fully comprehend the course of their year. Volunteering to live in a double-walled tent, heated by a small wood stove north of the Arctic Circle in January requires far more fortitude than I possess. The discomfort and difficulties that Campbell endured to capture an authentic depiction of the trapping lifestyle pales in comparison to the daily challenges – emotional and physical – that the Korth family faces in order to maintain their lifestyle. Eight months of winter, frigid temperatures, scrapes with hypothermia, frostbite, and the loss of their first child – the Korth's have not chosen an easy life.
Yet Heimo remains fiercely dedicated to life in America's last wilderness. His wife Edna, loyal in her support, has come to appreciate their way of life as well – though Heimo's teenaged daughters, Rhonda and Krin are less certain, despite having been raised on the trapline. The call of an easier life in the outside world echoes in their ears, proving irresistible and changing the Korth family's lifestyle, perhaps irrevocably.
The historical segments of the story provide depth and relevance to the Korth's life – placing them in space and time as the whirlwind of oil development and land allocations swirls across the state. Not being one to appreciate straight history, my eyes glazed over from time to time during these stretches of text.
Holding me captive and urging me through the side trips into politics and the past were the authentic interactions and shared experiences of the Korth family and James Campbell. The story of their opening up to him and the reweaving the thin bonds of family between them is captured within this books pages. Eating moose tail and beaver tongue together, the shared tasks of fishing, hunting, trapping, packing water, sledding at 55 below and making drymeat – these are the ties that bind, and the backbone of this multi-faceted biography.
Whether you're a would-be adventurer, Alaskan history buff, or a voyeur intent on capturing a glimpse of a nearly forgotten lifestyle, The Last Frontiersman will satisfy your longings.
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SEATTLE (AP) — Los Angeles Clippers guard Chris Paul and former NFL stars Jerome Bettis and Terrell Owens will serve as celebrity owners in the Professional Bowlers Association's inaugural PBA League.
The eight-team league will make its debut at Detroit's Thunderbowl Lanes in January. ESPN will televise five weeks of league competition beginning Jan. 27 and also broadcast the Elias Cup finals in April.
Each five-man team will have a designated franchise player and the other spots will be set in a draft Friday in Las Vegas. Paul's Los Angeles-based team will be led by franchise player Jason Belmonte of Australia, Bettis' Detroit team will feature Mike Fagan, and Owens' Dallas squad received Norm Duke.


text: The Washington Area Habitat for Humanity Annual Soup Luncheon and Dinner will be Tuesday Nov. 16th from 11am to 1pm and 4:30pm to 7pm. At the United Presbyterian Church in Washington. A Variety of soups, crackers, relishes, desserts and drinks will be served. A free will offering will be accepted, carry outs available.


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Welcome Mae Van Sickle, 101, of Fulton, Kan., passed away early Friday, Dec. 18, 2009 at home.
She was born Jan. 7, 1908 northwest of Hume, Mo., the daughter of Ray and Inez (Umphenour) Hinderliter.
At an early age she moved with her parents to a farm south of Hume. She attended Amos Elementary School. She graduated from Hume High School with the class of 1926, Kansas State Teachers College Pittsburg in 1928 with a Life Certificate in Teaching and Pittsburg State University in 1966 with a B.S. in Education.
Her first teaching experience in 1928 was South Indian Creek, a one room school with eight grades and all janitorial duties including caring for a coal burning furnace.
On May 6, 1933 she married Thomas Vincent Van Sickle in Fulton, Kan. To this union two sons were born; Tom R. Van Sickle, and Gary L. Van Sickle. At that period in history when a female teacher married her contract was cancelled.
A few years later World War II began. There was a shortage of teachers and she was called back into the profession. She retired in 1973 with 33 years, all in Bourbon County, (the last twenty-eight at Fulton and West Liberty).
After her retirement and until Vincent's death, April 10, 1989, she and her husband enjoyed traveling and visited all states but Alaska.
She was a member of West Liberty United Methodist Church and loved working there. She served for 30 as Historian and 36 years as Membership Chairman. She taught several years in the Primary Sunday School Department.
She was leader of MYF and the West Liberty 4-H Club, a member of The Quilters and West Liberty U.M.W.
She belonged to Bourbon County Retired Teachers, Kansas State Teachers Association, Kansas National Educators Association and Barnesville Friendly Circle until it closed.
She loved her grandchildren, and great grandchildren who called her, grandma, grandma Sickle and G.G. Her church family and working on the farm with her husband was most important to her. She was especially proud of her large flower garden where she felt close to God. Her favorite hobby was quilting.
She is survived by her two sons; Tom R. Van Sickle of Sedona, Ariz., and Gary L. Van Sickle and wife; Linda, of Fort Scott, a daughter-in-law; Suzy G. Van Sickle of Scottsdale, Ariz., a brother; Raymond Hinderliter of Fort Scott, a sister; Leota Bruce of Ottawa, Kan., eight grandchildren; David Van Sickle and wife Lolly Merrill, Jodi Hosken and husband Ken, John Van Sickle and wife Markhabat Muminova, Jill Griffith and husband Terry, Robert Vincent Van Sickle and Liz Dwyer, Rebecca Van Sickle and husband Mark Covek, Matthew Van Sickle and Anna McHugh, and Jeff Van Sickle and wife Tiffany, and eleven great grandchildren; Kenan Hosken, Keon Alejandro Hosken, Taylor Griffith, Karla Hosken, Henry Van Sickle, Jackson Griffith, Kamaria Hosken, Charlie Van Sickle, Amelia Van Sickle, Krista Hosken and Kyra Hosken.
She was preceded in death by her parents, her husband, and a sister; Winona Hinderliter.
Rev. Janet Myers will conduct funeral services, 2 p.m. Tuesday, Dec. 22, 2009 at the West Liberty United Methodist Church, with burial following in the West Liberty Cemetery.
Visitation is Monday evening from 7 p.m. until 8 p.m. at the Konantz-Cheney Funeral Home.
Memorials may be made to the West Liberty United Methodist Church or to the FSCC Endowment Scholarship Fund and left in the care of the Konantz-Cheney Funeral Home, 15 W. Wall Street, P.O. Box 309, Fort Scott, Kansas, 66701.
Online condolences may be emailed to email@example.com.


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Samurai Jack Intro - Remake Latino
Samurai Jack Opening remake by latin animators
4.38 / 5.00 7,208 ViewsThe next episode of the Winkee & Wadd series! Do you think Wadd tries to be so mean to Winkee? I keep trying to get him to be nicer, but it makes for some funny entertainment!
I did this animation to test how well I could sync music with animation. I think it came out pretty well!
This is just great! Good audio and animation quality combined with funny storyline and awesome facial expressions - just great.
Thank you kindly good sir!
Love it! Perhaps a bit rough around the edges (for example the background is just a wall) but for what it was, its pretty fantastic.
Perhaps It would be better you uploaded a regular video format for this instead of putting it into an swf.
Thanks for the input! The reason the background is just a wall is partly because I'm trying to set up an overall story that these are monsters I bought online and they live on my desk. I haven't implemented that idea yet, but I wanted the recent videos to reflect that.
I also have this on YouTube, but I made this on here as a SWF so I could imbed links to my other pages at the end of this. I'm not quite sure how to do this on videos on NewGrounds!
This is very nice, but personally I think your in the wrong place: Try somewhere like YouTube.
I know it might be harder to get famous but it will be worth it in the end. Good luck!
I do have this, and many other videos, on YouTube. But I wanted to upload any animation I do here as well as I find NewGrounds is better for animation. I know it's mostly for Flash, but I've seen some good stop motion here too!


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Hi All, NEWBIE Alert ......
this is my first post please be gental lol
I'm having trouble loading anything in HBC....
my wii is 3.2e softmoded been working excellent for quite some time untill i update with request from HBC to update to 1.3. thought ok installed hbc to 1.3 didn't update dvdx or bootmii. went to load hbc black screen just hangs there, so i deleted then reinstalling homebrew channel again to 1.01 using twighlite hack hbc loads sd icon appears thats it or to update request again, SD card is installed and all the apps are on the sd but not appearing in the hbc not sure what to do next.
have been reading that ios61 needs to be updated but not sure dont wont to brick it. USB loader works perfectly.
Any help would be greatful.
Last edited by oyama; 08-06-2009 at 10:31 PM.
ok i reformatted the sd to fat and fat32 same result able to see hbc background with bubbles floating but that's it no apps displayed version 1.01, if i upgrade to 1.03 wii hangs black screen wii mote turns off have to power down to load the wii. its got me stumped.
Cheers oyama


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Morning Sun on Saint Helens | [ Sizes: Orig | Large | Med | Small | Thumb ] | |||
The East side of Mount Saint Helens seen from 7000 feet on Mount Adams. Photographed July 5, 2007. | Mount Saint Helens (Mountain/Rock) gimpilator's Image Gallery Cascade Volcanoes (Area/Range) Mount Adams (Mountain/Rock) Mount Saint Helens in Late November (Trip Report) Volcanoes of the World (Album) Image Data
Image ID: 308382 Hits: 6038 Lat/Lon: 46.19140°N / 122.1933°W Object Title: Morning Sun on Saint Helens Image Type(s): Alpine Climbing, Hiking |


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Juegos de dos jugadores Juegos de dos jugadores La web cataloga los juegos para 2 jugadores online. Múltiples propuestas en ocho categorías temáticas. Con regularidad aparecen novedades. *dosjugadores.com* *10*
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Kongregate Kongregate Play thousands of free web and mobile games! Discover the best shooters, role playing games, MMO, CCG, tower defense, action games and more! *kongregate.com* *741* *International*
Newgrounds Newgrounds A community of artists, game developers, musicians, voice actors and writers who create and share some of the best stuff on the web! *newgrounds.com* *141,382* *International*
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Gaming Wonderland Gaming Wonderland Get your game on at Gaming Wonderland, home to hundreds of the best free online games! *gamingwonderland.com* *10* *International*
2PG 2PG 2PG offers all the best in online two player games and more. We started out as a multiplayer games site, but gathered many other games since. Play Now! *2pg.com* *2* *International*


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Rio Ferdinand will travel to Barcelona for England's World Cup opener with Andorra despite missing training for the second day running.
The Manchester United defender has been suffering from a stiff back and will be assessed again on Friday. However, coach Fabio Capello is quite relaxed about the situation and the mere fact his vice-captain will accompany the team on the first part of their double-header suggests Ferdinand will be involved.
Matthew Upson and Joleon Lescott are in Capello's 23-man squad should the Italian require a replacement to partner John Terry, while Wes Brown also has plenty of experience at centre-half.
The only absentee from training at London Colney on Thursday was Joe Cole, who is tipped to be handed the left-sided midfield spot as Steven Gerrard has been ruled out through injury.
Cole received a knock on his calf and will also be assessed.
Like Ferdinand, the Chelsea midfielder will travel to Barcelona as England look to get their qualification campaign off to a winning start ahead of Wednesday's key encounter with Croatia, whose coach Slaven Bilic continues to be linked with the manager's position at West Ham made vacant by Alan Curbishley's shock resignation on Thursday.
Copyright (c) PA Sport 2008, All Rights Reserved.
Do YOU want to write for GiveMeSport? Get started today by signing-up and submitting an article HERE: http://gms.to/writeforgms


text: In Two Weeks, You'll Fall to Your Death in the Next Call of Duty DLC MapEvan Narcisse2/07/12 2:30pmFiled to: Call Of DutyCall of Duty: Modern Warfare 3DlcOverwatchCall of duty eliteGalleryKotaku Core243EditPromoteShare to KinjaToggle Conversation toolsGo to permalink The globe-trotting nature of the Call of Duty series means that multiplayer maps have a plethora of locales to choose from. And the latest one is in… New York?! Advertisement Wait, don't run away! The Overwatch map hitting on February 21st is different, since you'll be engaging in firefights 70 stories above the street in a skyscraper with no safety barriers. If you don't watch your step, a very stupid death will happen to you.As with all the DLC since Activision launched Call of Duty Elite service, you'll need to be an Xbox 360 player AND a premium Elite member to play Overwatch first. If you're a premium Elite member on PS3, you'll get it before other owners of Sony's console. If you need help figuring all this out, check out Stephen Totilo's article on the Call of Duty content season. Reply243 repliesLeave a reply


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Full profile →'">
The author is a Forbes contributor. The opinions expressed are those of the writer.
Alzheimer's Disease (AD) R&D might be the most challenging therapeutic area that faces medicine today. It is known that AD is caused by the build-up of proteins into clusters that clog up nerve cells in the brain. These "plaques" break down nerve cells which, in turn, results in a decrease in the ability of these cells to function thereby leading to the familiar AD symptoms of memory loss and erosion of cognitive skills.
How these plaques form is a matter of scientific debate. One theory is that AD is caused by the build-up of the protein, beta-amyloid, and that if you can prevent deposition of this protein in the brain, you can slow plaque progression. Unfortunately, two compounds designed to do just that, 's bapineuzumab and Lilly's solanezumab, failed in late stage clinical trials, thus casting doubt on this hypothesis. A second theory is that AD is caused by the build-up of another protein, known as tau, inside neurons where tau causes protein tangles. Interestingly, post-mortem samples of AD patients show that there is a correlation between tau protein tangles and the degree of AD severity.
What further complicates finding a cure for AD is that it is unclear how best to conduct clinical trials to determine the efficacy of a new experimental medicine. It is not known if a patient needs to be treated long before AD is fully apparent or if people need to be treated at the first signs of disease. Once the AD process starts, can it be halted or reversed? Should people with a perceived genetic predisposition to AD be treated to slow or prevent the onset of the disease? All of these questions need to be answered. However, to do this, long and expensive clinical trials are required as was done with bapineuzumab and solanezumab. Thus, the challenges that exist in AD go well beyond the normal R&D process of having a hypothesis and finding a compound safe and potent enough to test the hypothesis in patients. Unlike a disease like cancer where clinical trial protocols are well established, in AD even the clinical trial design is at an experimental stage.
Because of these challenges, last year I speculated that pharma companies might exit AD R&D. Last week, 's CEO, Chris Viehbacher, did just that. As reported by 's Drew Armstrong, Viebacher said the following:
"I think we have to do a lot more basic science work to understand what's going on. We really, at best, partially understand the cause of the disease. It's hard to come up with meaningful targets."
One can't blame Viehbacher for taking this position. After all, there are a lot of diseases where new and/or better treatments are needed, diseases whose pathology is better understood and where the chances for success are greater. My guess is that his shareholders will support his decision to make safer R&D bets. But, as the lifespan of the world's population increases, so will cases of AD. Furthermore, the increased financial burden of this disease will have an enormous impact on healthcare budgets. The fact is that our best hope in bringing new AD medicines to market rests with the major pharmaceutical companies as they are the only ones with the necessary resources to be able to perform the key clinical trials that will ultimately yield a breakthrough. If Sanofi's stance is mimicked by other companies, the chances of an AD breakthrough greatly diminish.
However, as Sanofi was stepping down last week, Lilly was stepping up. As reported by Jonathan Rockoff in the Wall Street Journal, Lilly has "double-downed" in its efforts, as indicated by Lilly VP, Dr. Dan Skovronsky:
"The most meaningful impact in Alzheimer's might involve targeting multiple pathways and using combinations of drugs."
Lilly's plan is to go after AD by combining drugs that prevent beta-amyloid deposition and also tau protein tangles. To help them in doing this, Lilly has bought the rights to tau-measuring tests from . As Skovronsky explained:
"The whole field has been amyloid-centric, amyloid-driven. But we need more than that. That's why we're investing in tau."
There is no doubt that Lilly has taken a much bolder move in AD compared to Sanofi, and it's a move that will be challenged by industry analysts. But Lilly has stepped up to the plate on a health issue that has major consequences for us all. I, for one, am very happy that they are making these important, but high risk, investments.


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Here's all the news we're reading today:
• What's this? A think-piece on how female characters on Game of Thrones use fashion to express themselves and assert their identity in a repressive society? Yes, please, thank you. [The Hairpin]
• Florida's governor signed a bill restricting abortions even more stringently in the state. [RH Reality Check]
• My new favorite poet Patricia Lockwood discusses her new collection, Motherland Fatherland Homelandsexuals. [The Awl]
• If you're in Chicago this summer, check out this schedule of events about women and the justice system, organized by the Chicago Alliance to Free Marissa. [Free Marissa, via @chiefelk]
• DC Comics' president addresses the lack of women on its creative teams, telling company shareholders, "We talk frequently about how we heighten the presence of female storytellers and creators with our comic books."
• Orange is the New Black star Lorraine Toussaint, who plays the villainous Vee, talks about playing a mother figure who's happy to devour her young. [Daily Beast]
• Mmm... video game nostalgia. Ease into Monday with some recollections of the bold and nerdy female characters in classic video game Chrono Trigger. [Autostraddle]
• Philadelphia is hosting a feminist zine fest next week! It looks rad.
What did I miss? Add what you're reading to the comments.
2 Comments Have Been Posted
This just came out, so it
alexithymia replied on
This just came out, so it should definitely appear on tomorrow's radar :)
Mormon women and ordination
de Pizan replied on
Activists pushing for women to be ordained to the priesthood and also more acceptance of gay members are facing possible excommunication from the Mormon church. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/12/us/two-activists-within-mormon-church-...


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When Aziz Ansari hosts June 6's MTV Movie Awards in L.A., look for a bizarre hybrid of styles.
"It's going to be like that show 'Minute to Win It' meets 'Drake and Josh.' That's the goal," Ansari joked to Fancast Monday in Pasadena,
asked about his hosting style. "No, I am really excited, I think it will be great. I think that show is perfect for someone like me. I love making short films, but I love doing stand-up. So, both of those skills are what you need to do that job."
Ansari, 27, is currently shooting the second season of NBC's 'Parks and Recreation.'
"I remember watching that growing up and seeing, like, Ben Stiller host, and recent years, [Adam] Sandler and [Andy] Samberg host. It's cool to be given that opportunity, it's such a cool show," he says. "They want you to do exciting different things, and that's what I'm trying to do. Hopefully, it will be good."
Aziz Ansari Named Host Of The 2010 MTV Movie Awards
As for Ansari increasingly having young, edgy fans, the comedian, who has starred in 'Funny People,' 'Observe and Report,' and 'The Rocker,' is modest.
"I think when you do this stuff, it's kind of a slow build," he says. "By doing this show, and I had a stand-up special that came out earlier this
year, I think it all built on itself."
Watch Ansari in the latest episode of 'Parks & Recreation':


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Shop UO
Pointer Brand Special Makes
Tennessee workwear company
Pointer Brand
is well known for their denim and cotton duck apparel, but since they've started offering less traditional and more fashion forward pieces overseas their fans stateside demanded the same. Pointer's
Special Make
brings together their tried and true jackets with some new details not previously offered like shawl collars and contrast pocket fabrics. Check out the whole line
. -Bob


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Tuesday, February 13th, 2007 Edition of The Daily Standard
Online Local News Stories
FORT RECOVERY - The state is offering $1.3 million to Fort Recovery school district to help rebuild or renovate its existing high school building.
The school has less than two weeks - until Feb. 26 - to accept or reject the off . . .
Option 1
• Total square footage: 91,217 (renovated 61,876, new 29,341)
• Cost: $11.4 million, including $1.3 million paid by state and $10.1 million from taxpayers
• Local millage: 8 to 9 mills
• Estimated cost to taxpay . . .
Doug Billerman knows all about deer accidents.
As an insurance adjuster with Celina Insurance Group, he has handled more accidents involving the swift-moving critters than you can shake an antler at.
The 32-year-old Billerma . . .
With both teams losing a game due to cancellation at some point during the season, Celina and Fort Loramie got together on Monday night at the Fieldhouse for a non-league matchup.
In a game that had plenty of twists throughout, . . .
Print and E-Edition Only News Stories
• Celina's regatta to be part of national championship
• Board considers alcohol testing
• Students will be speaking Chinese at Marion Local High School next year
• Funding approved for improvements along pathway
• Village street crew ready to weather snow
• Two long-term teachers retire
• Students give their imput on school lunches
• Coldwater takes WBL champs to overtime
• Celina falls on the road at TCC
Local Obituaries
Elsie M. Farmer, 67, of Rockford, died Feb. 11, 200,7 in Louisiana.
Arrangements are pending at Ketcham-Ripley Funeral Home, Rockford. . . .
Margaret M. Fiely, 97, 5257 Philothea Road, St. Henry, died Feb. 12, 2007, at St. Rita's Medical Center, Lima.
She was born March 24, 1909, in St. Henry, to Benedict and Anna Thieman Quinter. On May 29, 1929, she married Edmund . . .
Betty Dee Hinkle, 82, 5620 Tama Road, Celina, died at 3:10 p.m. Feb. 9, 2007, at the Laurels of Shane Hill, Rockford.
She was born Feb. 26, 1924, in Celina, to D.W. and Edith Hellwarth Fast. On Aug. 24, 1946, she married E. Mau . . .
Leah June Muter, 84, 813 Greenbriar Court, Celina, died at 10:34 p.m. Feb. 12, 2007, at her residence.
She was born June 11, 1922, in Laketon, Ind., to Gerald D. and Edith Sopher Grossnickle. On Nov. 9, 1940 she married Paul E. . . .
Betty Rosengarten, 80, 104 Runningbrook Lane, Montezuma, died Feb. 11, 2007, at Mercer County Community Hospital, Coldwater.
She was born Nov. 22, 1926, to George and Anna Marie Fullenkamp Pleiman. On Nov. 8, 1947, she married . . .
Local Pictures
Thursday Night
Friday Night
Saturday Night
Sunday Night
Monday Night
3 Day


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December 28, 2007
Justin Easter leads a group of participants at the Steamboat Nordic Ski Camp, December 16 at the Steamboat Ski Touring Center. Local Nordic racers have a full plate of ski events coming up, starting 10 a.m. Sunday with the annual New Year's Relay at the Touring Center.
Stories this photo appears in:
Nordic Council tunes schedule with events
Local cross-country skiers might notice a streamlined look to this year's schedule of race events.
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text:
37 Courses
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Joseph Lowery is a best-selling author, programmer, and presenter on web and mobile web technology.
Joseph's books about the web and web-building tools are international bestsellers, having sold more than 400,000 copies worldwide in eleven different languages. His most recent books are the Dreamweaver CS5 Bible, HTML5 24-Hour Trainer and Adobe CS4 Web Workflows. Joe also wrote Dreamweaver 8: Beyond the Basics from lynda.com. He's built hundreds of web sites over the years, as well as numerous extensions and applications to help other web designers.
As a programmer, Joseph contributed two extensions to releases of Fireworks and many extensions available for Dreamweaver. He has presented at Adobe MAX numerous times, Seybold in both Boston and San Francisco, ThunderLizard's Web World, and KW Media Group's Mac Design Conference.
Start your free trial now, and begin learning software, business and creative skills—anytime, anywhere—with video instruction from recognized industry experts.


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