text:
- Tim Hudson - 215 innings pitched...well above average in 2011
- Tommy Hanson - 130 innings pitched in 2011....almost exactly league average according to park neutral statistics on statcorner.com. Hanson has the potential to be much better in 2012 if healthy.
- Jair Jurrjens - 152 innings pitched....trade bait and a regression candidate. Even though he posted a sexy 2.96 ERA, statcorner has him listed as slightly below average based on his peripherals.
- Brandon Beachy - 142 innings pitched....and statistically the most successful Braves pitcher. He's pitched only 156 innings in his major league career.
- Mike Minor - 82 innings pitched in 2011, and only 120 in his big league career.... He's had below average results thus far, but Atlanta expects big things in the future.
- Randall Delgado - 35 innings pitched in 2011 and his entire big league career. Only decent results thus far, and a severe regression candidate based on normalized statistics. Honestly, there's no telling what Delgado can be based on the evidence thus far.
- Julio Teheran - 19 innings pitched in 2011 and his entire big league career. He is no doubt an incredibly talented super-prospect, but no one knows how long it will take him to find success in the big leagues. He looks to be ready from day one, but it's tough to count on a rookie.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
When a Surplus is Actually a Dilemma: The Atlanta Rotation
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
The All "He's Making What?!?!" Team
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
The Yankees' Inexplicable Dearth of Starting Pitching
- Phil Hughes had a solid 2010 campaign, but last year he mixed the undesirable qualities of being (1) unhealthy and (2) horrible at pitching. Hughes is still young, with upside, so I wouldn't toss him aside. But I also wouldn't count on him the way that the Yankees seemingly are.
- A.J. Burnett is both expensive ($16.5 million for the next two seasons) and horrible, with an ERA over 5 for the last two seasons. For any other team, he would be to expensive to write off, but the Yankees have never been shy about their ability to eat dead money salary.
- 35 year old Freddy Garcia enjoyed something of a career renaissance last year, but that comes after five years of sub-mediocre pitching, and I'm willing to bet he comes back to the mean in 2012. We no longer live in an era of baseball in which a 37 year old Barry Bonds suddenly hits 73 home runs.
Saturday, December 24, 2011
Transaction Reaction: Carlos Beltran
- There's a new "mang" in town. I thought it would take a 3-year commitment to land Beltran, so kudos to the Cardinals' front office for upping the annual value and offering the no trade clause to make this work.
- The Cardinals are going to be really good in 2012, even without Pujols. Many of Beltran's rate stats were even higher than Pujols' in 2011, so if the Cards can keep Beltran on the field consistently they will be very successful. Jonah Keri of Grantland stated after the Latos trade that the Cardinals were still the favorite in the division, even if they don't make any other moves. Keri be darned, Mo went out and added the second best bat available. The only negative is that the Cardinals will be relying on several players who have missed significant time to injury over the past few years. However, their bench also looks to be strong enough to fill in, much like they did in 2011.
- This move also gives the Cardinals more flexibility, and the opportunity to improve the defense. Berkman will be shifting to first to fill the void left by Pujols, so Beltran and Craig will be getting most of the time in right field. I expect Beltran to get about 50 games in CF, but his exposure will definitely be limited to smaller parks, favorable pitching matchups.
- Lastly, don't listen to the narrative about Beltran being a retread. Beltran had one major surgery a few years ago, and has been a consistently elite player since he came back. He logged more innings than anyone in the Cardinals' outfield last year. His age and health is a factor, but his talent should be the story, as evidenced by his OPS and OPS+ that were near the best in the league in 2011.
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Hottest Stove Mailbag!!!
Just email your questions to firstname.lastname@example.com. Be sure to include a first name and last initial. We look forward to hearing from you!
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Rangers Win Yu Darvish Posting
Monday, December 19, 2011
"If I Were General Manager..." Series: AL East
- This one seems too easy. With money to burn and a big first baseman available, I add Prince Fielder to the lineup. How many opposing pitchers will want to wade through a middle of the order that goes righty then lefty with Bautista and then Fielder?
- I make a deal with Colby Rasmus and the skipper. We will hit Colby high in the order (2-hole most days) and play him consistently. If he doesn't see an average of at least 5 ptiches per at-bat, he's gone at the trade deadline. His productive stretches have come when he's drawing walks in front of Pujols, so the same should ring true when hitting in front of my Bautista/Fielder gauntlet.
- I package a good prospect and a few low-tier pieces for starting pitching. In addition to the prospects, I offer the Astros some salary relief and get Wandy Rodriguez AND Brett Myers to fill out the back of my rotation. This leaves me with Romero, Morrow, Rodriguez, Myers and either Drabek or Alvarez.
- I make every effort to send Dustin McGowan and Brett Cecil packing in a trade for a closer. Francisco Rodriguez would be a fit if the Brewers will eat a portion of the salary.
- I'm going into rebuilding mode for now, but this looks to be a relatively short-term project. In separate deals, I move JJ Hardy and Adam Jones. My target is decent young pitching, but not necessarily top-tier. My plan is to add a few young #2 or#3 types to toss in with Brian Matusz, Jake Arietta and Zach Britton. Hopefully these guys can mature together along with Matt Wieters. Obviously, young pitching isn't easy to come by, but teams are always in need of shortstops and center fielders.
- Not much else on the radar right now, but the plan in about three years will be to fill in some bats around Wieters and the young arms. We can make a quick run with a few well-timed free agent signings over the next few years, but for now we must show some restraint.
- I 'm going to trade Wade Davis like he's hot. As Dave Cameron of Fangraphs mentioned recently, "Wade Davis isn't good". However, a number of people seem to THINK that Wade Davis is pretty good, so I'll get as much value as I can. Besides, the rotation left over looks pretty stinking good with Price, Moore, Hellickson, Shields and Jeff Niemann. Make me any offer, but I'm going to ask for a decent shortstop.
- It's a moot point now, but I would have signed Josh Willingham to play right field. You can definitely do worse than having Jennings, Upton and Willingham across the outfield every day. Since Willingham is injury prone, this would also be a good chance to get Brandon Guyer some limited exposure.
- Bid like crazy for Yu Darvish. The posting system is a suspiciously convenient loop-hole for big market teams to manipulate their way around the luxury tax. By posting an obscene number to gain exclusive negotiating rights, I lessen the amount of money that actually goes on the books. Darvish (or whoever) is forced to sign with us or wait until next year. For this reason, a billionaire gets his wings each time a Japanese player is posted.
- I focus entirely on pitching because I only have 2-3 pitchers I can count on. I spend the rest of my money to add Roy Oswalt. The offense is already loaded anyway, so why not stop the other team from scoring?
- To tie up some loose ends, Josh Reddick he will be playing consistently in the outfield, and Daniel Bard will come into camp prepared to be the closer.
- This is what makes the AL East interesting. Everything I said about Boston's need for pitching also applies here. Again, Darvish would have made a ton of sense due to the posting process, but I doubt many teams were expecting the bidding to go as high as what the Rangers put up. I look to add two pitchers (both with a name other than Freddy Garcia). Scary thought: If the Yankees go cheap at the back end of their rotation this year, they may end up in third place in this division.
- Honestly, I love the right side of the Yankees' infield, but I'm not excited about much else. (At least not compared to what the division rivals are working with.) I would make a serious run at Yoennis Cespedes to give them another talented outfielder to line up with Granderson and Gardner.
Transaction Reaction: Jason Kubel
- With the Kubel signing, yet another of the "second-tier" corner outfielders has signed, with both Willingham and Cuddyer signing last week. My guess is that Carlos Beltran will be signing soon, perhaps as early as today or tomorrow. The St. Louis Cardinals present the most likely destination at the moment.
- This is a good move for the Diamondbacks. Kubel, is a good professional hitter, having posted a career slash line of .271/.335/.459, with an average of 22 home runs per 162 games, and at age 29, he is in the prime of his career. In going from Minnesota to Arizona, Kubel is moving from a pitchers' park to a hitters' park, which should enhance his numbers. Kubel represents an upgrade offensively (though a downgrade defensively) in left field over Gerardo Parra, who will likely now move to a fourth-outfielder role, adding overall depth to the roster.
- A quick glance at the Diamondbacks depth chart (D-backs Depth Chart) shows how this organization has quietly put together a young a talented team, who after making the playoffs last year under Kirk Gibson, should be a force in the NL for years to come.
Saturday, December 17, 2011
Transaction Reaction: Mat Latos for Yonder Alonso, Edinson Volquez, et al
- With this move, the Cincinnati Reds look poised for a strong run in 2011. With the uncertainty surrounding the rest of the NL Central, kudos to the Reds front office for making a strong move. In Latos, they receive a very young pitcher (24 years old) with #1 or high #2 status. They've been searching for a #1 starter for a few years, and it seems they've finally found their guy.
- From the Padres perspective, the deal also seems fair. The addition of Edinson Volquez might make this a "steal" due to his potential, but he looks uncertain at this point. Perhaps the larger park will finally give Volquez the confidence to go right at hitters and use his terrific movement to his advantage, rather than walking batters. Yonder Alonso is another player with very high upside as we saw last year, but that comes with a number of question marks in his own right. Alonso combines tremendous power, porous defense and some curious minor league stats which will make this deal interesting for years to come.
- The fact that the Padres got a few extra pieces shows the Reds' urgency in my opinion. (Boxberger and Grandal offer A LOT more than just throw-ins). Although they gave up a bunch of talent, the uncertain state of the NL central makes this a great deal for both sides. This will definitely be a trade that will, like so many others, be a whole lot easier to evaluate with the benefit of hindsight. I'll meet you for coffee in 2016 and we'll talk it over.
Thursday, December 15, 2011
MLB Power Ranking
- Boston Red Sox
- Texas Rangers
- New York Yankees
- Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim)
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Detroit Tigers
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Atlanta Braves
- Cincinnati Reds
- Cleveland Indians
- Colorado Rockies
- San Francisco Giants
- Miami Marlins
- Washington Nationals
- Chicago White Sox
- Minnesota Twins
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Kansas City Royals
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Seattle Mariners
- Chicago Cubs
- San Diego Padres
- New York Mets
- Baltimore Orioles
- Houston Astros
- Oakland Athletics
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Transaction Reaction: Josh Willingham
- With both Kubel and Cuddyer as free agents, the Twins needed to add a corner outfielder with some thump, and Josh Willingham fits the bill. He will never win an MVP, or even be the best player on a good team. But $7 million a year seems like decent value.
- Willingham displayed decent power last year (29 home runs/.477 slugging) in a ballpark that suppresses power numbers in Oakland. He won't get a boost in going to Target Field, another power-suppressing park, but perhaps being in a better lineup will be beneficial.
- What will be interesting will be to see how the dominoes fall from here. This was an offseason with a number of "second-tier" corner outfielders--guys like Willingham, Kubel, Cuddyer, Beltran, Ludwick, and recently non-tendered Luke Scott, and Willingham is just the first of many to sign.
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
"If I Were General Manager..." Series: NL East
- Assuming they can get over the trauma of one of the biggest collapses in baseball history, the Braves are actually in pretty good shape. Lots of talented youth and not a lot of holes.
- With Tyler Pastornicky slotted in to start at shortstop, look for a veteran backup in case he struggles. Guys like Nick Punto, Jack Wilson, Ronny Cedeno all fit the bill.
- Keep Martin Prado around, with the plan of having him and Uggla split second/third base when Chipper inevitably retires/gets hurt.
- Add some mash potential by signing a corner outfielder. These guys are easily found this offseason--Josh Willingham, Ryan Ludwick, Luke Scott, Michael Cuddyer, Carlos Beltran.
- Keep rotation intact for now. That means the top four guys (Hudson, Hanson, Jurjjens, Beachy), plus whichever young stud grabs a hold of the fifth spot. Jurjjens and Hanson have both been fairly fragile, and will need fill-ins. Use this year to figure out which of the prospects are "boom" and which are "bust." Then trade those who are "bust" before anyone else realizes they are not that good.
- Also, make sure to frequently tell Craig Kimbrall that he is still really good.
- The Phils have a lot of money committed to guys who are about to get really old, really fast. With that in mind, the strategy is do whatever we can to "win now" without getting rid of any young players.
- Go hard after Michael Cuddyer. He can fill in for Howard while he is hurt, and can then start in a corner outfield spot when Howard returns. Perfect fit.
- In the theme of winning now, while going younger, look into trading with the Padres for Chase Headley (27) to take Polanco's spot at third. Headley's power has always been suppressed, but in the Philly's park, that power will be exaggerated. Polanco then becomes a utility infielder
- Do whatever possible to dump Joe Blanton's salary, and replace with someone much cheaper (Paul Maholm? Zach Duke?)
- Re-sign Jimmy Rollins, but not to a five-year deal. Preferably three. Then tell him to make a guarantee about the Phillies winning the World Series.
- Agree to a bunch of outrageous free-agent contracts with big name players that will excite fan base.
- Sell season tickets to excited fan base.
- Before first game of season, put a big "Closed Until Further Notice" sign on front of new stadium, and disappear with season ticket-holder money to remote tropical island.
- The outlook is not good for this year, or the next couple years. That means full rebuilding mode.
- Trade David Wright for the best collection of prospects that is offered.
- Trade anything else of value (Jason Bay, Mike Pelfrey) for prospects.
- Convince Brian Cashman that Johan Santana is healthy, and then trade him to the Yankees.
- Hang onto Ike Davis as the interim "face of the franchise." Cash in on as many Ike Davis bobblehead nights as possible.
- Looking at the National's roster on paper makes me think that this is a team that could surprise some people. If nothing else, they are really close.
- Sign Prince Fielder. He plays first, Mike Morse moves to left, and the heart of the lineup looks like this: Zimmerman, Fielder, Werth, Morse. Not too shabby.
- Give Bryce Harper a "chance" to earn a starting outfield job in spring training, but unless he blows up, send him back to the minors for one more year of seasoning.
- Look to trade for a center fielder with good OBP to lead off. Perhaps re-ignite talks with the Twins about Denard Span, as he would be a great fit.
- Look for a seasoned veteran with a good track record of success to lead the staff of young high-upside starters (Strasburg, Zimmermann, Detwiler, etc.). In terms of free agency, Oswalt fits the bill. In terms of trading, talk to the Cubs about Garza, the Astros about Wandy/Myers, and maybe the White Sox about Jake Peavy.
Monday, December 12, 2011
"If I Were General Manager..." Series: AL West
- The Pujols deal will be a huge boost to this offense for the short term. The problem is, even with Albert inserted, the lineup looks to be full of holes. My first order of business is to trade a piece for a legit bat to slip in front of or behind Albert to ensure he gets to swing the bat once or twice a week. (We can't be paying 254 million for a bulky David Eckstein to draw 35 walks per week.) I would make a solid run at Chase Headley.
- The rotation looks solid with the addition of C.J. Wilson, so no complaints there.
- Trout needs to play every day. He's ready, but players like Abreu are blocking him. While he's had a good career, Abreu's only strength is his bat (OBP) at this point, and he was BARELY above average last year. Even if Trout is terrible offensively, his glove will make him a better value than anything Abreu can offer at this point.
- Nothing too exciting here, except for full rebuilding mode. Restock for the future with brighter ballparks, relocation, and a somewhat new fan base.
- I like the trade involving Cahill. I would also shop Gio to the Red Sox/Yankees and shoot for high upside pieces that will mature to the MLB in about three years to correspond with the new stadium. Also, see if there is interest in Dallas Braden, but hang on to Brandon McCarthy.
- Sell high on as many relievers as possible, because we don't expect to be holding many leads over the next few years anyway. Ziegler, Bailey, Balfour, Devine.....anyone who will bring a return is out the door.
- Pray that some offense walks through the door. Building the offense around Scott Sizemore seems like a desperate situation.
- Move the walls in... then sign Prince Fielder. Actually, on second thought....better get Prince in the door first and THEN move the walls in around him. That would be embarrassing for everyone involved. (Yep, we're doing fat jokes...)
- Stick with Brendan Ryan at short, and be consistent. Defense first up the middle, but add offense at the corners. What got the M's in trouble was the "defense first" model at every position.
- The maturation of Mike Carp and Justin Smoak along with the acquisition of Fielder will boost the offense plenty, so I would add a mid-level starter and see where we stand after this year.
- The Angels won't steal our mojo with a few big signings. We have a huge TV contract also, and a much better offense than the Anaheim Alberts. I go hard after Fielder to make our lineup even more incredible.
- Feliz definitely moves to the rotation, and Scott Feldman becomes the closer.
- I wait until near spring training and scoop up the best ground ball pitcher that is available as a 6th starter since we have some young starters and a converted closer that might not be able to take a full workload. Also, I can flip Mitch Moreland and cash for a low-tier pitcher or non-tender candidate if nothing in the scrap heap is to my liking.
"If I Were General Manager..." Series: AL Central
- Figure out what is broken with Grady Sizemore and fix it.
- Sign a corner outfielder with mash potential--someone like Jason Kubel, Josh Willingham, Michael Cuddyer. That player could function in a number of roles. He could share time with both Travis Hafner at designated hitter and Matt LaPorta at first base. He could function as "backup" of sorts for Grady Sizemore, who will inevitably get hurt/disappoint, starting at a corner outfield spot and moving Michael Brantley to center field.
- Let Chisenhall and Kipnis start at third and second, respectively, but find someone who can be a serviceable backup at both spots in case they hit the sophomore slump. Somebody like Bill Hall or Jose Lopez might fit the bill.
- Cross your fingers and hope that Ubaldo Jimenez returns to Cy Young caliber form. You need him to be an ace, especially for the price paid for him.
- Stay the course! Recent publications asserted that the Royals had among the highest concentration of top-tier prospects in history. Let the young guys play and grow.
- Shortstop Alcides Escobar could still grow into a solid player, but I'm going to try and upgrade the middle infield talent. There is not a lot worthwhile on the free agent market, so I will try to acquire some young prospects perhaps not in the center of their team's plans for the future. Guys like Tyler Greene with the Cardinals or Gordon Beckham with the White Sox would be on my radar
- With a lot of big time starting pitching prospects on the near horizon, I'm looking for a veteran starting pitcher to help groom the young guns. Roy Oswalt fits the bill, and I'm willing to overpay to get him because I'm not just investing in Roy in the here and now, but in the future maturation of my talented young starting rotation. If I can't convince Roy, maybe a trade for a guy like Jair Jurjjens would make sense
- I like Lorenzo Cain enough in CF, but I'd like a guy who can push him for the starting spot, who can also be a decent fourth outfielder. Coco Crisp?
- Having signed Jonathon Broxton as a potential closer, assuming Broxton's health and trust in Aaron Crow as a fill-in, look to leverage the value of Joakim Soria, my incumbent closer. This approach was described in a previous post ("Transaction Reaction: Jonathon Broxton"). After exploring Soria's value on the trade market (maybe looking for a starter), look to convert him to the starting rotation, as starters are, in my opinion, inherently more valuable than relievers. This plan has recently been proven successful in the case of C.J. Wilson with, formerly with the Texas Rangers. Adding a couple solid starting pitchers at the top of the rotation (Oswalt, Soria) would dramatically enhance the look of this team
- Find a starting second baseman. I'm working real hard to get Martin Prado from the Braves, and if I can't, maybe I'm hoping the Cardinals non-tender Ryan Theriot. He's a horrible shortstop, but his defensive is passable as a second baseman. Plus, he feels like a Jim Leyland kind of player.
- As I have a number of young, volatile guys (Scherzer, Porcello, Turner) slotted into my rotation, I'm looking to add a number two/three type starting pitcher for depth. Zach Duke, Jeff Francis, Joel Piniero? Maybe swing a trade with the Cardinals who are trying to dump Kyle Lohse or Jake Westbrook.
- I'm not thrilled that Brandon Inge is my starting third baseman, but with Aramis Ramirez recently signing with the Brewers, the market at the position is thin. So look to sign someone like Kevin Kouzmanoff or Jorge Cantu to push Inge.
- Think about adding another outfielder to the mix, preferable someone who can play centerfield, when streaky Austin Jackson is slumping. High end would be a guy like Yoenis Cepedes, low end somebody like Rick Ankiel or Cody Ross.
- The White Sox front office has been saying that they are in full rebuild mode. I do think that it is probably wise to trade some older names for some younger ones, but there is enough talent on this roster to compete, so a full overhaul might be an overreaction.
- First off, hope that Carlos Quentin can stay healthy. When he is healthy, he is a game-changer.
- Also hope that Adam Dunn and Alex Rios can bounce back from horrible 2011 seasons. They are premier players being paid premier dollars. In order to re-invigorate Dunn for 2012, look to get him in the field more often (even though his defense is brutal), mixing him in at first base and left field, and giving Quentin and Konerko some pseudo off days playing DH.
- This is the year for Gordon Beckham to finally break out. He was a big-time prospect that was probably brought up too soon, but the time has arrived.
- I'm also giving the starting right field job to Dayan Viciedo. The guy has mashed wherever he has been, so I want to see what he can do with a full-time gig.
- Try to acquire an outfielder that can help set the table, and can also play center field. Look hard at trying to get speedy table-setter Julio Borbon from the Texas Rangers. He will give me some flexibility to move other outfielders around as needed, and will do what Juan Pierre was supposed to do last year. Also check in with free agent Coco Crisp.
- While I do expect Jake Peavy to get hurt at some point during the season, the plan is to let young stud Zach Stewart take his spot. But I'm also going to acquire some inexpensive starting pitching depth like Paul Maholm or Zach Duke.
- Pray that Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau stay healthy. Without the two of them, it will be near impossible to win. To "bubble-wrap" them, give them both lots of days at DH, and let Ryan Doumit and backup first baseman (see below) fill in.
- For Morneau insurance, give to sign a veteran first baseman who can provide value. Carlos Pena makes a ton of sense.
- Try to re-sign Michael Cuddyer on a hometown discount. He is a solid player who provides depth at a number of important positions (corner outfield, first, second, third). But I'm not really expecting to get a worthwhile deal done, because Cuddyer is a hot commodity.
- Short of Cuddyer, I'm trying hard to add another outfielder with some mash potential on the cheap. Ryan Ludwick, Xavier Nady, and old friend Jason Kubel all fit the bill.
- Francisco Liriano needs to fix what is broken, and go back to the guy that made us think it was okay to trade Johan Santana.
- Old-style Liriano is a great pitcher, but for the sake of his mental health, I'd like for him to be the number two, so I'm working hard to convince Roy Oswalt to join the staff as the veteran ace, bumping Liriano and Pavano to numbers two and three respectively.
- The middle infield is really weak. But don't pay an arm and a leg for Jimmy Rollins. Instead, call the Tampa Bay Rays to find out the asking price for Ben Zobrist. His production has dropped off since they gave him a multi-year contract. Also call the Chicago White Sox about Alexei Ramirez, as they are supposedly in rebuilding mode, and the Braves about Martin Prado.
- There is a lot to be done here, and frankly, there isn't the resources to do all that has been discussed. Just do as many as possible.
Sunday, December 11, 2011
Transaction Reaction: Rafael Furcal and Ryan Braun
- After being traded the Cardinals last season, Furcal was a major part of their playoff push. He contributed offensively and was a major upgrade defensively at shortstop over Ryan Theriot, who kicked more balls than Morten Anderson
- The Cardinals sign this new deal with Furcal upon finding increased financial flexibility after not signing a certain first baseman. Seems like a reasonable amount to spend on Furcal, if not a bit heavy.
- This move represents a decent incremental improvement for the Cardinals, as Furcal has always provided good value if healthy (big "if" here). Talented prospect SS Tyler Greene will now compete with Daniel Descalso for playing time at second base, and will fill in for Furcal if (when) he gets hurt.
- While the Furcal addition is a good one for the Cards, alone it certainly does not mitigate the loss of a previously-mentioned, but unnamed first baseman. The Cards still have work to do, and perhaps signing free agent outfielder Carlos Beltran could be an answer. Another option to increase value on the roster would be trading one of Kyle Lohse/Jake Westbrook, freeing a spot to sign free agent starter Roy Oswalt .
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Say it ain't......so long, mang (Transaction Reaction: Albert Pujols)
- First off, it's a shame that baseball economics rarely allows a historic player to play in one place for his entire career. That said, with any contract of this magnitude it is very difficult for mid-market teams like St. Louis to absorb this kind of risk. $200 million? Absolutely. $220 million? Barely.
- The Angel's offer for $254 million with incentives as high as $280 is in another stratosphere. It doesn't make sense for the Cardinals when extrapolated out at that level, but kudos to the Angels for pouncing on a truly epic player. The Angels will use this deal and the signing of C.J. Wilson to take advantage of the recent misfortune of the Dodgers. This deal will allow them to put a stranglehold on LA relevance. If this happens, the Pujols deal was a success in their eyes, regardless of his on-field production.
- From the Cardinals perspective, it's hard to argue with their approach. Find a dollar amount that makes sense, and hold fast to it. Don't bid against yourself and don't allow emotions to foster unintelligent decisions. Kudos also to the Cardinals for the discipline of the front office. They will be rewarded for their efforts with a wealth of resources and flexibility...which will be available in free agency this year, and will return in many years to come. The return of Wainwright and the resigning of Berkman will soften the blow, as long as the Redbirds can add a few pieces and make the 2012 roster as complete as the 2011 version. Look for the Cards to explore outfield free agents and some middle infield trade possibilities. Carlos Beltran, Jason Kubel, Adam Jones, JJ Hardy and Alexei Ramirez all make a great deal of sense at this point, so will see what kind of bullets Mo uses.
- In summation, the Cards plan on winning plenty of "gangs" without "the Mang."
Coming Soon... Reaction to Albertageddon
I Can't Believe I'm Writing About the Pittsburgh Pirates
- Early in the offseason, they signed Clint Barmes to a two-year $10.5 million dollar contract. Barmes will never be a game-changer, but he has always been a solid player, and he will slot in as their everyday shortstop. Given where it looks like the shortstop market is headed, what I initially thought was too much money could turn out to be a bargain.
- Then, during the winter meetings, they signed two high-upside players for low-cost one-year deals in Nate McClouth ($1.75 million) who used to be a Pirate, and Erik Bedard ($4.5 million).
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Albert's Pro and Con List
- Pro:
- He'd be coming back to join a world championship team that will be adding Cy Young caliber Adam Wainwright to the starting rotation
- He'd be able to remain in an organizational situation that he is comfortable with
- Quick, think of a list of the games most legendary players... How many of them played their whole career with one team? There seems to be some inherent cache that comes with spending your entire tenure wearing one uniform
- Stan Musial style statue outside Busch Stadium
- The Cardinals are an organization that has proven its commitment to winning and fielding a competitive team over a long period of time
- The organization itself is an incredibly stable one
- Con:
- I would guess that in the long run, the contract would be smaller (years and/or average annual value)
- The insult of the Cardinals front office "playing it cool" with regard to negotiations. Everyone would like to be told that they are needed and couldn't be lived without. The Cardinals simply have not said this to Albert with words or actions
- Pro:
- Potentially bigger contract (years and/or average annual value)
- The chance to be the face of a franchise potentially on the rise, with a young core of star players and other star free agent additions
- The opportunity to play alongside more hispanic players, under a hispanic coach, in a hispanic city.
- Exciting new uniforms (not sure if this is a pro or con... Take a look at the uni's and judge for yourself. I guess it depends upon your sense of style)
- The chance to join fellow stars Heath Bell (Chris Bosh) and Jose Reyes (Dwayne Wade) in "taking his talents to south beach."
- I heard somewhere that Albert has a grandmother that lives in Miami. I guess that matters, if you like your grandma and all...
- New is always exciting. Right?
- Con
- No telling what this new mix of players and personalities will become (see "Transaction Reaction: Jose Reyes"), especially with the highly combustible Ozzie Guillen at the helm
- The Miami Marlins (formerly the Florida Marlins) have not proven their commitment to winning over a period of time. In fact, they have done the exact opposite, twice winning the World Series, and then blowing up the roster
- There is no telling exactly how stable this franchise is. They have perennially had one of the lower payrolls in the league, but all of a sudden they are big spenders, and are in on every free agent. Something smells fishy... (pun intended)
Monday, December 5, 2011
Transaction Reaction: Jose Reyes
- I have read numerous debates whether the Marlins gave Reyes too much, or if the contract is a bargain. In my opinion, the answer to this question hinges completely on Reyes' health over the next six years. When he is healthy, Jose is one of the best, most dynamic, difference-making players in all of baseball. And he plays a premium position! The issue, however, is that Reyes has not been completely healthy, suffering numerous injuries and maladies over the past couple years. Frankly, I'm not a doctor, nor do I play one on t.v., so I am not even going to speculate on his health going forward.
- What I do find more interesting about this deal, however, is the fact that the Marlins already have a shortstop. And he's pretty good. Maybe you have heard of him... His name is Hanley Ramirez. I suppose the plan is to move him to third base or something. But is he okay with such a move? Going forward, this is going to be the interesting part of this signing, as we watch the dynamic between Reyes and Ramirez, one of which is not going to play shortstop. (I suppose they could both play shortstop at the same time, but that seems like an inefficient arrangement of infielders).
- Will Hanley be willing to move? Will that move affect team chemistry? Will this signing precipitate trade discussion revolving around Ramirez? I don't know, but it should make for interesting theater.
Saturday, December 3, 2011
Bobby Valentine and the Myth of Managerial Experience Revisited
About a month ago, I wrote a column called "The Myth of Managerial Experience" in which I outlined two points. 1 ) Having managed before does not necessarily make someone a good manager, and 2) managers have very little impact statistically over the course of a season. Both points will be proved true over the next few years by the marriage of Bobby Valentine and the Boston Red Sox.
Bobby Valentine has a wealth of experience, and almost no success to show for it. He has managed 15 seasons and does not have a division title to show for it. He did muster an NL Pennant in 2000 with the Mets after a Wild Card berth. I think it's safe to say that Boston will have higher expectations than he's used to.
In "Baseball Between the Numbers" Baseball Prospectus writers tried to analyze the amount of runs that managers' decisions have cost or gained their team over the past 40 years. While the book is from 2005 and the metrics need to be taken with a grain of salt, Bobby Valentine cost his team more runs than all but two managers over the past 40 years according to their data. He appears towards the top of each of their "Worst Manager by ___" tables. They also cite him by name as an example of how sometimes a manager can be so bad that it costs the team free agent signings. There's no doubt players will avoid cities where they do not respect the leadership. In my opinion, this is especially possible with Valentine given his strong personality and his terrible work on Baseball Tonight for all the world to see…
All that being said, Boston has a ton of money and a great roster already in place, so I think they are going to be fine in spite of this hiring. Let's hope that if Boston does have success, intelligent baseball folks attribute it to their wealth of resources and good business model rather than Valentine's leadership. Keep in mind that the Red Sox were on pace to win close to 100 games last year before their pitching injuries and historic collapse. Boston will be successful in spite of Valentine rather than because of him.
Transaction Reaction: Heath Bell
- First off, it's good to see the Marlins actually signing someone, rather than "expressing interest" in everyone.
- Heath Bell has been a very consistent and reliable closer, and it seems they got him for a reasonable price, although the number of years is a bit risky for a closer that is moving from Petco to an unknown new park.
- I personally would not have made this deal because of the extremely high number of quality closers still available in free agency and trade right now. My guess is that teams who decide to wait until near the end of free agency to go closer shopping will be scooping up guys for peanuts. There are only a certain number of closer positions, and none of these pitchers want to end up being the guy who could only land a setup role. This might turn out to be a rare scenario where the teams have all of the leverage over the free agents.
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Transaction Reaction: Jonathon Broxton
- This, to me, is a very interesting deal. And I like it very much. The Royals acquire in Broxton a guy who is still relatively young (27), and as recently as 2010, was one of the game's most dominant closers. It is a bit of a lottery ticket in that the Royals are banking on (1) Broxton will be recovered from the injuries he endured last year and (2) With the injuries no longer hampering him, Broxton will once again be a top-shelf closer. But considering the market which has developed for top-tier closers (see: Papelbon, Jonathon), this signing of Broxton seems to a wise risk/reward investment.
- But here's what I think makes this signing all the more interesting. The Royals already have a closer, and a very good one at that, in Joakim Soria. At this point, the party line is probably that Broxton is going to be the setup man for Soria. I don't think so, though. One reason is simply that as a free agent, I doubt Broxton would sign somewhere unless he thought he was going to get the chance to close.
- No, I think the Royals have something much more clever in mind. I'm guessing that this signing of Broxton indicates that the Royals are planning to leverage Soria's value in some way. And I see two possible avenues for this.
- Convert Joakim Soria into a starter. I would argue that starters are much more valuable to teams than closers, and with a bunch of young stud pitching prospects on their way up, Soria could function as the de-facto veteran ace to lead these young bucks. Making this transition from closer to starter is not without precedent of success in recent years (see: Wilson, C.J.)
- Use Joakim Soria as a valuable trade chip in a deal for something else that they really need. There is no team in baseball that wouldn't love to have Soria in the fold, so it just depends on where the Royals feel like they have holes. In fact, speculating whispers about potential trade matches are already starting to surface. One that I read this morning was Joakim Soria for Colby Rasmus. Having a young talented hitter like that would certainly beef up the Royals' lineup for years to come.
Monday, November 28, 2011
"If I Were General Manager..." Series: NL West
-Build around the surprising trio of Kennedy, Hudson and Josh Collmenter.
-Sign a reliable, but cost-effective pitcher to fill in a #4 spot. We're looking for durability and consistency, and preferably someone who will keep the ball down. Joel Piniero might be a reasonable target, and then Joe Saunders becomes a very respectable #5.
-Use a trade or free agency to obtain a slugging left fielder. Carlos Lee would be my target, since the Astros are in full rebuilding mode, but I would also inquire about Kyle Blanks, Allen Craig, Josh Willingham, and Carlos Quentin. This lineup will be treacherous with one additional impact bat and the return of Stephen Drew.
-Move Juan Uribe to the bench, and ask the Padres what it will take to obtain Chase Headley. I'll give up one of our elite bullpen arms for an everyday player, and an underrated impact bat without hesitation.
-Stretch out Blake Hawksworth and make him the fifth starter over Dana Eveland. This will give us at least 3 decent lefties out of the pen, so I'll check in with some teams that are thin on the left side of the bullpen. Target a bench bat or add the lefty into the previously mentioned deal for a respectable third baseman.
-Shop for a #3 or #4 starter in free agency. Obviously, I'll take the #3 starter, since those are bettter....and it's not my money. Even better, I'll overpay to keep Hiroki Kuroda.
-Leave a spot open for Jerry Sands play every day.... Done.
-San Francisco's park dramatically promotes triples and suppresses home runs, so the plan is to cater to those features. I also happen to have a gaping hole at shortstop, so I'll take.......Jose Reyes please.
-Undo the Melky Cabrera for Jonathan Sanchez swap. I would want to keep the pitching depth and go after a defensive-minded center fielder given the afore-dimensions of the ballpark. Coco Crisp or a young speedster... I would settle for someone like Reed Johnson or Ryan Spilborghs via free agency or a minor trade.
-Since the signing of Reyes takes us out of the running for Beltran, we need a cost-effective outfielder. Brandon Belt plays left, Unnamed Speedster in center, and I would stick with Nate Schierholz in right. He has been surprisingly solid with the bat over the last few years, and will give you comparable production to most of the low-tier options in available in free agency. The return of Buster Posey should make this lineup decent enough for the pitchers to win games for us.
-I didn't mind the Jaso for Luebke swap. But to fully take advantage, I would flip Nick Hundley and a prospect I don't like for a high upside shortstop prospect in the lower levels.
-Since we're rebuilding, I would shop Chase Headley and get all I can for them.
-Since Cameron Maybin is still young, I will build around the trio of Maybin, Blanks, and Venable.
-I would make Luke Gregerson the closer from day one. This is not to win games, this is so I can then trade him as soon as the league views him as a "closer" and will give me a good return.
-Save the rest of my money and resources for brighter days, hopefully in about 2-3 years.
-Pencil in Ian Stewart for an everyday role at second base in 2012. I'm expecting a bounce-back year and I promise he'll give you more on offense than he gives up on defense. Kouzmanoff will return at third base.
-Since curveballs and sinkers don't play well in Coors, I will seek out trades for pitchers that have a "heavy" fastball. Guys like Chad Billingly, Fausto Carmona, and Edinson Volquez are my targets. (Unfortunately, the ideal fit would be Ubaldo Jiminez, but I'm still working under the assumption that the Rockies front office knew something about Jiminez that the rest of the league doesn't.)
-Sign Ryan Ludwick or someone similar. He hits the ball hard and in the air frequently, so he should benefit from the environment. He also plays above average defense as a corner outfielder.
"If I Were General Manager..." Series: NL Central
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Do my best to re-sign Prince Fielder. He and Ryan Braun formed one of the more formidable duos in MLB. Without a bat like Fielder behind him, Braun will not see nearly as many opportunities to hit. The two of them led the team to a division championship this year, and perhaps the good feelings might engender Prince to bring some purple rain to Milwaukee this offseason and lock in long-term with Braun (Signed through 2020)
- If I can't resign Prince Fielder, I would give a shot at first base to long-time prospect Matt Gamel, and try to sign a value bat that can play first base everyday, but could also play somewhere else if Gamel works out. Somebody like Michael Cuddyer would fit the bill here. If Gamel works out at first, Cuddyer could take third and put McGehee on the bench where he belongs.
- Lock up Greinke and Marcum to long-term deals. Along with Gallardo, this would give the Brewers a formidable top of the rotation for years to come.
- Give Carlos Gomez a shot to start in center field, but sign a veteran backup like Rick Ankiel, Nate McClouth, or Coco Crisp.
- Find somebody to play shortstop. I'd probably go defense-first and cheap because it seems like the market is going to price the Brewers out of the top name guys.
- Build a time-machine and undo the trades in which I gave away Brett Lawrie and J.J. Hardy. That would be a pretty handsome left side of the infield.
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Make Albert Pujols a reasonable offer, and wait to see what happens.
- If nobody outbids the Cards, Albert will probably stay. In which case, only minor moves would be left.
- If anyone throws crazy money at him, let him walk. Lance Berkman slides to first base and Allen Craig to right.
- Figure out a way to dump Jake Westbrook. Then sign either Roy Oswalt or Mark Buerhle. Both have expressed an interest in coming to St. Louis, and both would be a marked upgrade.
- Re-sign Nick Punto as a backup to both middle infield positions, but give the starting jobs to in-house players Daniel Descalso and Tyler Greene.
- If Albert walks, package John Jay and some other players for an offensive upgrade in centerfield. Somebody like Adam Jones.
- Cincinnati Reds
- Trade Yonder Alonso in a package for an ace starting pitcher. Their rotation is made up of number two/three guys. They need a one. James Shields would be a good fit.
- Add a veteran pitcher. Maybe a guy like Mark Buehrle?
- Sign a third basemen for the long periods of time that Scott Rolen will be hurt (Kevin Kouzmanoff? Aramis Ramirez?)
- Make Aroldis Chapman the closer. He has lights out stuff, but his motion is probably too violent to take a starter's innings.
- Sign a right-handed left fielder like Josh Willingham
- Have Bronson Arroyo open every game with a rendition of "Wonderwall." He plays guitar, you know.
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Find good starting pitching and lots of it. Overpay for it. Trade for it. Whatever. This is a team with some good young position players, but a lot of smoke and mirrors for a rotation.
- Sign a veteran corner outfield bat to beef up the offense. Jason Kubel would be a good fit.
- Re-Sign Derrek Lee
- Pray that Pedro Alvarez remembers how to hit. Sign a veteran third baseman in case he doesn't
- Chicago Cubs
- Slowly start the player development machine. Hope that prospects graduate to the majors and make an impact soon. Trade veteran players for valuable prospects. This team is probably not going to be contending for a title this year, so there is no use fighting for a third place divisional finish.
- Sign Albert Pujols. I know this seems to contradict the previous point, but hear me out. This team will have a lot of money to spend, and they are looking to shake the "we haven't won a world series in over a hundred years" mojo. Why not start with a proven winner, hard competing, just won a World Series face of the franchise like Albert? He can be the guy that all the young players look up to and emulate. The Cubs wouldn't be paying Albert only as a "win-now" player, but as an investment in their future.
- Only add other players that could be contributing for the long-term.
- Pay Carlos Zambrano to go away. Forever.
- Houston Astros (soon to be of the AL West, Hooray!)
- Fire present GM (done.)
- Trade whatever veteran players I have away for prospects. But this time, for good prospects.
- Wait three to five years.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
The Injury Bug
-Should we just list off important players from memory, listing who got hurt last year? Heck no.
-Do we tally up DL stints? Maybe, but some DL stints last for months and some only a few weeks.
-What about tallying up the total number of DL days for each team? You're getting warmer.
-Should we check Baseball Prospectus and hope they already did the leg work for us? Absolutely!
Corey Dawkins and Ben Lindbergh wrote a series of columns for BP called "Collateral Damage." They used WAR projections for each player who went on the DL, and calculated the number of days each player missed. This allowed them to determine how much value each team lost to injury throughout the course of the 2011 season ("WARP lost" is their name for the calculation). Unfortunately, these heated "Injury Bug" discussions are going to be a lot shorter in the future now that we have this data. Here at The Hottest Stove, all we have left to do is check out a few highlights from BP's "WARP lost" team rankings and discuss the implications for the coming year:
Some teams had a high number of injuries and were successful despite their bad fortune. Barring major roster changes, we would expect these teams to stay successful and possibly get even better if their luck evens out in 2012.
- The St. Louis Cardinals dealt with more injuries than 25 of the 30 teams in 2011, and still were able to sneak into the playoffs on the final day. None of the other teams in the top 5 in WARP lost were above .500.
- The Philadelphia Phillies dealt with a high number of injuries as well, and rode their starting pitching to 102 wins. They'll keep bolstering their roster through free agency and although their players are aging, they seem to fill roster holes pretty effectively during the year.
- The Texas Rangers also dealt with some key injuries throughout the summer months last year, but got incredibly hot once these pieces returned. The Rangers came within one strike of a World Series championship......twice.
- The Minnesota Twins were awful in 2011, but who can blame them with injuries to just about everyone. They lost more value to injury than any other team, and by a wide margin. And you know, the Twins without Mauer and Morneau are a little like a mule with a spinning wheel. (He doesn't know how he got it, and darned if he knows how to use it....) Here's the short list of DL stints: Mauer, Morneau, Liriano, Baker, Kubel, Span, Slowey, Thome, Young, Nathan, and Nishioka. The AL central is wide open, and I wouldn't be shocked if the Twins are in the mix next year despite their terrible results in 2011.
- The San Francisco Giants will take a big step forward in 2012 and put themselves back atop the AL West. If they add a few decent bats, continue to pitch well, and get healthy, 2012 could be a great year for this group. The Giants (6th highest WARP lost) had a high number of injuries, while the Diamondbacks had relatively few injuries (4th lowest WARP lost total). Even though some of this is due to the age of the two rosters, look for a regression and for the AL West to be taken by San Francisco.
- The Astros lost the least value of any team in the majors to injury, but this is partly due to the lack of value on their roster. No resurgence is in sight until they draft well and bring in more talent via trade/free agency.
- The Cubs lost surprisingly little value to injury in a year where they underachieved. Many expected good things from this roster last year, but even with luck seemingly on their side they couldn't get the job done.
- The Oakland Athletics didn't put much value on the field last year, so they didn't lose much to injury. The moneyball theory is excellent, but if every team is using it AND paying more for quality players it is hard to expect good results.
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Transaction Reaction: Joe Nathan
- I think this is a great move for the Rangers. I am always against overpaying closers, but $7 million a year for two years seems pretty reasonable given market value. Plus, after having Tommy John surgery, Nathan is equipped with a fresh elbow tendon. So while he is old (37), his elbow is not.
- The real reason I like this move, though, is that I think the Rangers are actually adding value to their roster in two places. After watching Neftali Feliz implode in the World Series this year, Nathan, who has been one of the most consistent closers in the past decade, could be viewed as an upgrade at the position. At the same time, though, the Rangers are upgrading their starting rotation by adding Feliz to the mix.
- Some have wondered if Neftali Feliz will be able to handle the transition from bullpen to rotation, but what people don't realize about Feliz is that he was actually brought up through the minors as a starting pitcher (and a very good one at that!), and only became a closer in the bigs by necessity. As a prospect, scouts projected him as a potential staff ace. In this regard, Feliz's situation reminds me of another minor league starter--turned major league closer--turned major league starter: Adam Wainwright.
- All that being said, I think Nathan will do a good job as a closer, and I bet Feliz will be an excellent starter. With regard to Feliz, however, I do anticipate a shoulder injury--mine, as I reach for him in next year's fantasy baseball draft.
Monday, November 21, 2011
Transaction Reaction: Clint Barmes
- I'm not sure how I feel about this deal. I do think the Pirates will benefit greatly from the solid defense, consistency, and veteran leadership that Barmes will bring. Additionally, it's clear the market for middle infielders has trended upward, so the Pirates did a good job of obtaining the guy they wanted for a reasonable price, even though there are a number of teams in need of his services. Apparently the durability and consistency of Barmes proved to be the low-risk exception in a crop of high risk options in the free agent shortstop market.
- The debatable part of this deal is not the fact that they signed Clint Barmes. It's that they non-tendered an almost identical statistical player in Ronny Cedeno just a few weeks ago, and then paid more to obtain Barmes. The offensive and defensive numbers are eerily similar, so there must have been a personality clash or another kind of clubhouse issue going on. Otherwise, the series of events is a head-scratcher.
Barmes 2011: .244/.312/.386 UZR/150: 10.8
Saturday, November 19, 2011
Transaction Reaction: Ryan Doumit
- I like this deal for the Twins. Very low risk, and Doumit has been a serviceable major league hitter in his career. In 2011, he posted a .303/.353/.477 slash line. Doumit plays both of the positions (C/1B) at which the Twins have highly-fragile stars (Mauer, Morneau), and sizes up well as a fill-in starter. Plus, if Hell freezes over and both Mauer and Morneau are healthy at the same time, Doumit has the versatility to play a corner outfield spot.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Astros Moving! But Also Two New Wild Cards in MLB Playoffs :(
Unfortunately, along with the realignment announcement came another declaration from the commissioner's office that as soon as next year, there will be two new wild card teams in the playoffs, and the two wild card teams per league will meet in a one game playoff. My complaint about the MLB playoff system has always been the initial round of divisional playoff series is too short at the present best of five format. The unique thing about baseball is that it is an 162 game grind, where over the course of many months the cream rises to the top. It always seemed cheap to have two of the top four teams in each league eliminated in a series that is so brief when compared with the duration of the regular season.
But now something even more absurd is being introduced. A one game playoff. After pushing through a grueling 162 games, filled with highs and lows, a team now has four hours to decide its playoff fate. Keep in mind, this isn't the NFL in which a one game playoff makes sense because it is 1/16 of the regular season. For baseball, a one game playoff is a minuscule 1/162 of the season.
Will the ratings be high? Probably. Will MLB make a lot of money? Definitely. But the net result is that the league is further cheapening the regular season.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Transaction Reaction: Mark Ellis
- This continues the run on low-ceiling middle infielders. With the exception being Hill, we have already seen a few low-tier middle infielders signed early this off-season. His value has always been with his glove, but at this cost I have a hard time justifying the decision. If your team has a triple-A shortstop, you have Mark Ellis in the fold already, and for the league minimum! Instructions: 1) Take your dirt cheap triple A guy, 2) Slide him to second and hope he hits a little and 3) You're in business! 4) Spend your winnings elsewhere... It was thought that Ellis might experience a slight jump in his numbers after leaving Oakland for Coors Field, which did happen temporarily. However, he immediately jumps back into a pitcher's park for the 2012 season.
Monday, November 14, 2011
The Hiring of Mike Matheny Signals Major Changes in Organizational Philosophy
But Tony is not in charge anymore. And this hire of unproven Mike Matheny is the first of many manifestations of that reality. General Manager John Mozeliak is in charge now. Back in 2007, when the Cardinals fired Walt Jocketty, they announced that the organization was moving to greater emphasize player development, and give young, home-grown players chances to become stars on the big league level. Unfortunately, they failed to realize that Tony La Russa was still the sheriff in town. And Tony had long preferred veteran players over rookies, even at times to a fault. And so the full realization of the shift to the build from within model was put on hold.
But now, things have changed. In an article in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Mozeliak made a few off-the-cuff comments to beat writer Joe Strauss. He said that Daniel Descalso is projected as the team's starting second baseman, that he wouldn't mind seeing Tyler Greene as the starting shortstop, and that the backup catcher would be either Bryan Anderson or Tony Cruz. Simple comments on the surface level, but let me make a few observations:
- All four of these players Mozeliak is targeting for major roles on the team are home-grown players
- None of them have ever been every-day starters on the Major League Level
- There is no mention of a potential plan to bring in a proven veteran (like Clint Barmes or Jack Wilson) to "compete" for either of the starting middle infield jobs (though Mozeliak has expressed some interest in Rafael Furcal if the price is right)
- Low-ceiling veteran players on the Cardinals roster (like Skip Schumacher or Ryan Theriot) aren't even mentioned as possibilities for the starting middle infield jobs. In the article Schumacher is targeted for a utility role, and Theriot isn't even mentioned.
- Over the past number of years, the backup catcher has always been a crusty veteran (Gerald Laird, Jason LaRue). This is changing.
By the way, here is the link to the Matheny press conference: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=6022709&topic_id=6350584&c_id=mlb&tcid=vpp_copy_6022709&v=3


text:
I have a dimension called DimLocation which has this strucutre
I want to arrange the State members using the OrderBy property, if I select the Value AttributeName and then try to precise the attribute according to which attribute members would be ordered using the next property OrderByAttribute then I didn't find
any corresponding attributes in the OrderByAttribute drop own list, I tried to specify this by direct writing the name of the attribute on the property cell but it won't work if I hover the given attribute in the attributes zone (next to the hierarchy
zone) a tooltip tells me "The ordering criteria is set to 'Attribute Name', but the ordering attribute is not set "
View Complete Post
We have used listview webpart to display document library.
The ListViewWebPart contains a private variable called 'rootFolder' that contains the current folder the webpart is displaying.
Below code snippet is used to obtain the value of the private variable contained within the ListViewWebPart.
static object GetPrivateFieldValue(object obj,
string fieldName)
FieldInfo fi = obj.GetType().GetField(fieldName,
| System.Reflection.BindingFlags.NonPublic);
return fi.GetValue(obj);
However, This is
I have copied 2 queries and their execution plans below.first one taking long time to execute and the second one finishes with in a second.can u guys pls explain what is happening inside sql server engine.
--first part
select se.eventdate
haregistration r inner join
screening_event_slot ses
on r.ScreeningSlotID=ses.SlotId
inner join screening_event se
on se.eventid=ses.eventid order by EventDate
|--Nested Loops(Inner Join, WHERE:([microsoft].[dbo].[HARegistration].[ScreeningSlotID] as [r].[ScreeningSlotID]=[microsoft].[dbo].[screening_event_slot].[SlotId] as [ses].[SlotId]))
|--Nested Loops(Inner Join, OUTER REFERENCES:([se].[EventId], [Expr1006]) WITH ORDERED PREFETCH)
| |--Index Scan(OBJECT:([microsoft].[dbo].[screening_event].[IX_EventDate] AS [se]), ORDERED FORWARD)
| |--Index Seek(OBJECT:([microsoft].[dbo].[screening_event_slot].[AK_screening_event_slot] AS [ses]), SEEK:([ses].[EventId]=[microsoft].[dbo].[screening_event].[EventId] as [se].[EventId]) ORDERED FORWARD)
|--Clustered Index Scan(OBJECT:([microsoft].[dbo].[HARegistration].[PK_HAR
I have a split container on my form with a MonthCalendar control in Panel1 on the left, tab order 1.0.0 and a Datagridview control in Panel2 on the right, tab order 1.1.0. When the form opens I want the focus to be on the first visible
cell of the Datagridview, but I am unable to change the tab order of the split container panels.
I've tried adding Datagridview.Select or Datagridview.Rows(0).Selected = True to the Form_Load event, but once it runs through all the code & events after it still seems to put the focus back to the MonthCalendar.
In my code I have:
SqlParameter param = new SqlParameter("ID", id);
param.Direction = ParameterDirection.InputOutput;
wrapper.ParameterCollection.Add("StudentObjectiveID", SqlDbType.Int).Value = objectiveid;
wrapper.ParameterCollection.Add("SessionID", SqlDbType.Int).Value = sessionid;
wrapper.ParameterCollection.Add("StaffID", SqlDbType.Int).Value = staffid;
wrapper.ParameterCollection.Add("EnteredDate", SqlDbType.DateTime).Value = entereddate;
wrapper.ParameterCollection.Add("Achievement", SqlDbType.NText).Value = Achievement;
wrapper.ParameterCollection.Add("SessionStudentID", SqlDbType.Int).Value = session_student_id;
wrapper.ParameterCollection.Add("ImageName", SqlDbType.NVarChar, 255).Value = imagename;
wrapper.ParameterCollection.Add("ActualDate", SqlDbType.DateTime).Value = actualdate;
wrapper.ParameterCollection.Add("FileType", SqlDbType.VarChar, 10).Value = filetype;
int result = wrapper.ExecuteNonQuery();
id = (int)param.Value;
And in the relevant stored procedure I
Hi all,
I came to know that when I set "OrderBy" in linqdatasource in .aspx, the filters do not properly filter data in DD?
I tried it in List.aspx screen.
Is it a known issue or am I missing something?
Best regards,
I have two different queries in which the only difference is the order by clause. There result set is empty (no records returned). Query 1 runs completes immediately, but Query 2 take 1:06 to complete. Any ideas on why adding the order by clause results
in this type of performance penalty?
Thanks, Mike
select cp.*
from tblcourseregistration cr
inner join tblcourseposition cp on cr.sitememberid = 77434 and cr.courseregistrationid = cp.courseregistrationid
order by cp.coursepositionid desc
select top 1 cp.*
I'm trying to install SharePoint-2010 enterprise on a single server with
Server Farm->Complete option. The SharePoint-2010 production got installed successfully but when I run the Configuration Wizard it throws the following error:
System.Configuration.ConfigurationErrorsException: The value for the property 'storeName' is not valid. The error is: Could not load file or assembly 'SMDiagnostics, Version=220.127.116.11, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=b77a5c561934e089' or one of its dependencies.
The system cannot find the file specified. (C:\Program Files\Common Files\Microsoft Shared\Web Server Extensions\14\WebServices\Root\web.config line 7).
I had a working copy of SharePoint 2010 enterprise installed before, I uninstalled because of some other issue. Now when I try to re-install I'm getting above error what could be the issue here?
The details error in PCDiagonostics file:
System.Configuration.ConfigurationErrorsException: The value for the property 'storeName' is not valid. The error is: Could not load file or assembly 'SMDiagnostics, Version=188.8.131.52, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=b77a5c561934e089' or one of its dependencies.
The system cannot find the file specified. (C:\Program Files\Common Files\Microsoft Shared\Web Server Extensions\14\WebServices\Root\web.config line 7)
We have a SharePoint 2007 farm with two web front ends, one app server and one db active passive cluster. We're at SP2 + Feb 2011 CU.
In the past few days, our user profile import and crawl has been working fine, but our Membership and BDC import and crawl has shown errors in the crawl log:
" Crawled: (The directory property cannot be found in the cache.) "
This affects about 80% of our groups that are crawled. I can still select the AD groups in the people picker, assign permissions with them, etc. But I'd like to resolve that warning.
I believe I've figured out which (AD) directory property is no longer available, but I'm not 100% certain.
Is there a way to confirm which directory property cannot be found in the cache? If so, is there a way to change the PEOPLE_DL_IMPORT content source so that it doesn't throw that warning any more?
Kevin Worthington
I am about exhausted trying to figure out this error:
Description: The page cannot be displayed because an internal server error has occurred.
Error Code: 0x8007007b
Notification: ExecuteRequestHandler
Module: IsapiModule
Requested URL: http://localhost:80/ReportServer
Physical Path: c:\Program Files\Microsoft SQL Server\MSSQL.2\Reporting Services\ReportServer
When I enable Failed Request Tracing Rules and view the log output I am supposing that the actual problem is in the 2nd call where there are 2 backslashes before the actual filename in the specified path:
I am currently trying to display multiple items on a single page. I am not sure as to how to tackle this. What I have is a database table that has all the page data in. I have this run as a PagesController and this works fine. However what I would like to do is, if say the Products page is selected via the menu, I want to pull back not only the Products page html but also get all the products, and even be able to pull them through via category. I was trying to use a partial view, but I can't get it to work. The same would be for other pages, having partial views to display the other content, ie if Gallery is selected, the page html for Gallery shows and it then can push to a partial view that pulls all the gallery images from the gallery db table and so on. Maybe I am tackling this the wrong way. I have the pages stored in the db to allow for a CMS system I have setup. Maybe I need to use models for all the other items(Products, Gallery, Videos and such) and use the partial for the page html?Any help would be greatly appreciated as I am confused.
Hi, i have little knowledge on javascript but i need to use this code get from somewhere for a jquery to work.
I face this "Jscript runtime error: Object does not support property or method" whenever im trying to run this page.
In my experience, im get this error msg 9 out of 10 times i use javascript in my system.
Im using Microsoft Visual web developer 2008, i wonder if this is related to my problem, i not sure there is anything i need to add as reference or update anything.
But anyway, in short, i just couldn't use javascript code when using this development tool because of this sort of error.
Anyway, it happen that last time i tried use the same type of jquery code in another project and it seems to work well without an error.
But now when im try to use it again in this recent project i created, it come out with this error and i have no idea how to solve it even look through google and this forum.
It doesn't really seems like its the code problem itself although im not sure, because any javascript code just couldn't work.
So below is my code that i need to use.
<script type="text/javascript" src="http://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/1.3.2/jquery.min.js" ></script>
<script type="text/javascript" src=&quo
Is it possible with SQL sorted in descending order according to the word?In Table I shrajeno Mastercard, Visa, Diners etc ...All Visa are the first in the order, another Mastercard, etc. ...Something does not work: ORDER BY PaymentType = 'Visa';I would not want to work in one field PaymentId (111,222,33, etc. ..) and then use the ORDER BY.Is this possible in such a way?
I have never tried a group by with linq, now I do and I'm stuck.
I try to convert this sql statement to its linq counterpart :
SELECT COUNT(tb_Mailer_Smses.Id) AS [cnt], tb_Mailer_mailing.Id As [Id]
,SUM( CASE WHEN tb_Mailer_smses.DLRStatus = 200 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) As [Delivered]
,SUM(CASE WHEN DLRStatus BETWEEN 300 AND 499 THEN 1 WHEN DLRStatus BETWEEN 800 AND 899 THEN 1 END) AS [Errors]
FROM tb_Mailer_mailing INNER JOIN
tb_Mailer_Smses ON tb_Mailer_mailing.Id = tb_Mailer_Smses.MailingId
WHERE tb_Mailer_mailing.ApplicationId = 1
GROUP BY tb_Mailer_mailing.Id
Is there some one who can me show me the convertion process ?
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subset: commoncrawl


text:
Last week..
I guess I just don't understand how it is already here. I have mixed feelings... siyemps. I am excited to come home, but just like it said when I was set apart, coming home will definitely be a day of sorrow for me. I love these people so much. I love being a missionary. Mom and Dad... I can't wait for you to come so that I can share with you this experience.
This week was so full of meetings, which has pros and cons. The pro is I am so spiritually fed and inspired but we didn't get to work that much so we saw less miracles.
Monday night we did a family home evening with the Reyes family, before Noel went back to work abroad. We simply talked about our relationship to Heavenly Father and how it relates to our earthly father and his role in our family. They all cried. The gospel has COMPLETELY changed their lives. I don't know if I told you this, but before, they would always fight, Noel would always drink, and Sister Lyn would
always gamble. To be honest, Noel wasn't that excited to come home because he knew that they would just fight the whole time. But now they are all so happy, quiet, and peaceful in their home. They all literally always have a smile on their face. Noel and Lyn were dreading when he would leave and he said that he is making plans to be able to stay for good upon his next return. They all really understand better the importance of family and God's plan for
They can't wait to be sealed together in the temple when he comes back in 3 years. Brother Noel also found out about a group of members that secretly meet every Friday there to take the sacrament so he got the phone number and is making plans to go. The cool thing too is they can skype to have family prayer and family scripture study. He is such a cool guy, and I am so excited and grateful that I could help him to receive the gospel.
At our special Zone meeting on Tuesday we talked about the importance of the temple. They asked each of us what the most important decision in life is and every single one of our answers were related to temple marriage. Haha because obviously it is the most important thing and absolutely necessary for our exaltation. After that, they asked if we were to ask the same thing to our investigators and recent converts, would they also have the same response?.....I felt a weight in my chest when I realized that they did not understand the importance of the temple and how important it is for them to go as a family to be sealed. That was the focus. There are just too many less-actives here in the Philippines and even struggling to retain the new fruits.
|Sister Melosantos, Sister Mangum,
President & Me
President Mangum used a good illustration when he said that if there was a huge storm and a hole in the roof so that your entire house was being flooded... you would not want to START by cleaning up the flood. Instead you would want to get to the root of the problem and fix the roof so that you could start to see any progress. So as for the church here, instead of focusing all of our efforts on cleaning up the mess that has already been created, we need to first fix the root cause and prevent any more damage from occurring. I am so grateful to have a little more time here to strengthen my recent converts, especially the ones here in Sta. Cruz and help them to realize the importance of the temple. I will also keep in close contact with them when I go home, always pointing them towards that sacred place!
|Sister Cortez's beautiful Daughters, Sister Melosantos,
Me & Sister Cortez
Friday we had MLC where we had beautiful words of wisdom about stress, patience, and sincere prayer. I have realized that unless you are giving great effort to your prayers, you can easily slip into the habit of just saying prayers, instead of really praying. I really feel that our prayers are directly related to the state of our relationship with Heavenly Father, and how close we are to becoming like Him.
I was glad to have this reminder before I go home so that I can really pray over the field here in Sta. Cruz and receive revelation, comfort, and peace for the next step I am about to take. I challenge each of you to really evaluate how your prayers are and to make goals to have a more intimate and sincere communication with our Creator. I even challenge each of you to take the test in chapter 4 in PMG to have a better idea!
Unfortunately, yesterday we had no one come to church, but I did go on splits with two return missionaries and we had success teaching Sister Cortez's mom who is slowly progressing, and my favorite Nanay, Sister Emy Diola. I have confidence that we will have lots at church this Sunday.
|Splits teaching Sister Cortez's Mother
Anyway, I love all of you sa buong puso ko and I pray for you always. I know that God really does live and love each one of us. He is always there just waiting for us to come unto Him.
Love you!!
Sister Rasmussen
|I Love Sister Melosantos!
|Sister Galbraith (Mission Nurse)
|Elder...., Me & Sister Cayacay
|Me & Sister Galabay
|Me & Sister Harding
|Me & Sister Melosantos
|Sister, Me, Sister Melosantos, Sister Dula, & Sister


text:
Tied Down
Bebe jumpsuit, Victoria's Secret bra, Louis Vuitton scarf, Report Signature shoes via shopbop.com, HSN topaz earrings, QVC panther link bracelet on right hand, HSN bracelet on left hand, Maui Divers topaz ring on right hand, HSN ring on left hand
I could have met one of my style icons in this bodysuit. If only I hadn't been a little late to my friend, Max's, birthday dinner at Malo, where Nicole Ritchie, Joel Madden, and Benji Madden were at before my tardy arrival. I could have discussed fashion with Nicole and Maryland roots with Joel and Benji. Now thinking about it, this bodysuit was one of the reasons I missed them. I had ordered it online and even though I'm petite, I have to suck it in a little to button it up because it's so damn tight, which is quite the time-consuming process. I still love it though. Except when I have to pee.
Normally, I wear this Louis Vuitton scarf as its intended purpose- in my hair as a headband. However, I have also worn this as a pseudo belt and wanted to play up the masculinity of a pants bodysuit with a tie- creating another utilization of this scarf.
I love the topaz ring I'm wearing because it reminds me of my second vacation to Hawaii where I got it. While drinking the Maui Divers store-provided mimosas.


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Shane has a friend that is also a client. He is a deacon at one of the churches that advertise on the station. Shane sent him an email about Dorcas and he responded with an awesome reply.
How may we help? We will certainly be praying. Do you need money or time? If so, how much? I cant obligate the church, but I assure you I will send you as much as the Lord provides, whatever your need. I cant say enough how much I love and respect you, my brother.
Then, after the last update Shane sent, this is what Mark replied:
More importantly, I'm thrilled to hear what the Lord has in store for that
little baby in Liberia. I've made your needs known to the elders at
Redeemer, and we will consider them in the next deacon board meeting
scheduled for this August 1st. I can assure you that funds are coming, but I
can't tell you how much. I'm sorry to say it will most likely be less than
the full burden. Regardless, we will trust in the Lord for the need to be
met. Perhaps we can partner with your home church for the full amount.
This is absolutely amazing! I have yet to meet this man and his family; but we have made plans to go visit the church in August. Unfortunately, I don't think our home church would be able to partner with Redeemer in this. Although we have had some donations from individual members.


text:
***Warning: The following video contains explicit scenes so if you're a fuddy-duddy then please excuse me, and get the f*ck outta here. LOL. Seriously though, if it offends you, then please just shoo away. But promise me to come back when I post something subdued. ;]
But please allow Brent to show you the right way to put a rubber on.
hehe, soooo cute noh?
Too much for my first post eh? Forgive me, I'm sooo tired, I thought this could be a quick relief.
I know you want more. Go to dcfukit.org for the uncensored version.


text:
Hitter of the Week
Cade Gotta powered the GCL Rays offense this week. He went 6 for 20 with 4 doubles, a triple and 5 RBI's on the week. He finished the week with back to back two doubles games. Gotta is now hitting .256 with 7 doubles, 3 triples and 13 RBI's in 23 games this season.
Pitcher of the Week
Jose Alvarado just dominated the GCL hitters this weekend The hard throwing lefty struck out seven hitters in his four inning start against the Red Sox. Alvardo is 1-3 on the season with a 2.66 ERA dn 27 strikeouts in 6 starts this season.


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We then headed straight out to the Hudson and around Battery Park and saw The Statue of Liberty, we didn't bother going out to see it we will have to do that on our next trip to NY. We took about 10 photos and you still can't see the statue between our heads, but it was a nice spot to hang out.
Then we wandered down Wall Street to head towards ground zero.
From there it was a decent walk past Ground Zero and the new Freedom Tower down to the Brooklyn Bridge. It is also a decent walk back to the entrance to the bridge from this point. Also, it was about 30 degrees C (90F) and 80% humidity by this point. We were guzzling water like it was going out of fashion.
We wandered across the bridge and discovered that the speed that we call wandering is considerably slower than other tourists definition. That Bridge was hectic. Nice view though looking back towards Manhattan.
Then we got a little lost. We wanted to jump onto the subway back to Katz's deli. Problem was we had no idea where Katz's deli was. So we were looking suitably confused and lost when a lovely man helped us out. He was nice enough to not only tell us where to go but he actually took us with him through a train change to get to where we needed to go. Such a lovely New Yorker! Then we got to the mad house that is Katz's deli and I had what she's having.
Little tip, be prepared to wait at least an hour to eat if you are going here. We arrived at 2pm, thinking we would miss the "lunch rush". There is no lunch rush, it is always busy. The sandwiches were amazing, so it does make sense.
We had a reuben on rye, we just halved one and it was more than enough. It was a lot of meat that's for sure.
After we were fed and watered, we wandered a little more around SoHo checking out the shops and didn't end up buying anything. We then walked back via the garment district and did some window shopping.
Dinner was at E on 9th and 53rd, we shared empanadas, Marcus had deboned ribs and I had a house made chicken and eggplant ravioli which was amazing. I also had a grapefruit and vodka cocktail which was incredibly strong but incredibly good. We stumbled upon Cold Stone on 9th and 51st and of course had some cake batter icecream with sprinkles.


text:
Stephanie's TBF page
Get all of Stephanie's books available through the Monroe County Library System here.
Hello everyone!
ROC the day was very successful! Thank you to everyone who donated to TBF and the other non-profit organizations!
I'm so excited to present to you, readers, Stephanie Kate Strohm! She is the author of Pilgrims Don't Wear Pink about a teen fashionista, Libby, solving mysteries, flirting with cute guys and looking fabulous, of course! The sequel, Confederates Don't Wear Couture hits the shelves Summer 2013.
Miranda Reads: Libby, the heroine in Pilgrims Don't Wear Pink, loves history and fashion. Do you have the same love for history and fashion?
Stephanie Kate Strohm: History and fashion are two of my favorite things - which makes fashion history probably my most favorite thing! I was a history major in college (focus on women in 19th century America), and I spent inordinate amounts of "research" time reading 1850s fashion magazines - just for fun. Consequently, my early drafts all have ridiculously long descriptions of everyone's outfits - like pages and pages that have to be edited out! Apparently, not everyone wants to read endless paragraphs about buttons. But if anyone ever wants to talk about antebellum sleeve detailing or the evolution of pantaloons, just let me know.
MR: Can you tell us what Confederates Don't Wear Couture is about?
SKS: Confederates Don't Wear Couture follows Libby and her BFF Dev down to Alabama where they spend the summer at a series of Civil War Reenactments. So lots of hoopskirts, hardtack, and handsome boys in uniform. And of course, it wouldn't be a Libby summer without a ghost out for revenge!
MR: How many books are you planning to have in the Pilgrim series?
SKS: Definitely three...beyond that, it's still kind of up in the air!
MR: What was it like traveling to different states to perform in plays? Did you have to wear a corset?
SKS: A theater tour is a very strange, unique experience. It is very cool to be able to see so much of the country, and I'd never performed on such big stages before - sometimes as many as 6,000 seats! But after a while, you get tired of living in hotels and constantly driving around. And I have spent way more time in a corset than the average 21st century woman. Actually, the first time I was laced into one, I passed out! Faceplanted in the dressing room during a costume fitting. Now, however, I'm a corset pro - I can spend all day in one. Spending three summers at Shakespeare festivals will really build up your corset stamina.
MR: Which novel of Jane Austen is your favorite? Why?
SKS: Emma. Although my favorite has changed over the years. When I was writing Pilgrims, it was, no surprise, Northanger Abbey. But after recently rereading all the Austens, I found my affections had switched back to my first favorite - Emma. Why Emma? Emma is the heroine I identify the most with. Sure, we'd all like to be Elizabeth Bennett, but I am most definitively...not.
MR: What author are you most looking forward to meeting at the 8th annual Greater Rochester Teen Book Festival?
SKS: I'm really looking forward to meeting Robin LaFevers - we have the same publisher, but we've never met! And she obviously loves history too, so I think we'll have a lot to talk about!
Thank you, Stephanie for taking some time to chat with me! To learn more about Stephanie, go to her website or her Facebook page.
Enjoy the holidays, everyone!
PS--If you happen to be in the village of Fairport, you definitely want to check out the newly re-done YA area! It's gorgeous!


text:
One Hundred Years of Solitude by Gabriel García Márquez
Chapter 2
- Married cousins + chastity pants + Prudencio Aguilar's taunt – iguanas = a murder, a ghost and the reason José Arcadio Buendia and Úrsula move
- Pilar Ternera: Her sad past has twisted her sexual relationships.
"…she kept the madness of her heart intact." Pay attention to madness as a theme.
- Instead of ice, this time the gypsies bring a flying carpet and a waif that catches José Arcadio's eye.
- José Arcadio leaves with the gypsies even though Pilar is having his baby.
- Úrsula leaves behind baby Amaranta for five months and returns to Macando not with José Arcadio but with citizens of a town only two days away.


text:
They're planning on making a movie out of one of the best SciFi novels from the 1990's.
Not withstanding the success of The Lord Of The Rings, this news sent a shiver down my spine.
I'll just keep whispering to myself "the book still exists, the book still exists ..."


text:
Michael Vick has gone from the next big NFL superstar to inmate 33765-183 to who many thought was an MVP candidate heading into week 16. Vick's story is about the public's ability to forgive or to use it's short-term memory. It's one man's ability to change or to lie; paying one's debt to society or getting away with murder. It's about loaded words like redemption, fame, or trust.
Michael Vick Story
The Vick paradox is simple: You can't look away from the beauty, and you can't quite forget the brutality. His game is majestic and after watching him this past season, it's hard to imagine how good he can become. People speak of being conflicted about watching Vick; hating his crime, but loving his game, as if the two cannot be separated. They can't. Think about it. Did the vile acts that Vick commit, which lead to his imprisonment, make Vick the player that he is now? For Vick to touch greatness, did dogs have to die?
As long as Michael Vick continues to be in the public eye, those questions won't go away.
Has he changed?
That was the question when Vick was released from Leavenworth and into house arrest in May 2009. Shortly before his release, Tony Dungy, who had agreed to mentor Vick, met with him in prison for three hours. Vick told Dungy that he wanted to be a good father for his children and a better man for everyone who saw him as an idol. He also told Dungy that he planned to work hard on and off the football field, to maximize his talent. Later that spring, Eagles head coach Andy Reid called Dungy. "Do you think he is heading in the right direction?" Reid asked, "Do you think his heart's right?" Dungy told him, "Andy, I really think so."
Andy Reid knew how important it was to give young people a second chance. His sons, Garrett and Britt, had been battling drug problems for years and Andy would spend every Tuesday for two years visiting them in prison. He'd seen the cons. He'd also seen others sincerely willing to change but often met with coolness or hostility. Garrett and Britt, though, were given jobs, support from other families. Reid's eyes still well up in gratitude. "I know what it's like to have young people who make mistakes and feel they've changed, and no one gives them a chance," Reid told Dungy. I don't want to be that way. If that guy has changed and is looking for a second chance, I want to do it."
As the 2010 off-season unrolled, one key figure wasn't convinced that he had changed: Vick's mother, Brenda. Vick began making the rounds near his house in Virginia, staying out late, hosting parties with Marcus (his brother), putting himself out there where faces from his darker days could emerge. "She told us to stop having parties in February of 2010. Kept doing it. Kept doing it. Kept doing it. Kept getting by, kept getting by, kept getting by, doin' them quietly. Then: boom."
Happy Birthday!
With Vick's birthday approaching, Brenda (Michael's mom) and Kijafa (his girlfriend) decided to throw a surprise, invitation-only birthday party. Instead Vick decided to back his brother's bid to host an "All White 30th Birthday Bash" at $50 a head, announced through Twitter.
Vick and Kijafa, the mother of two of his daughters, arrived at the Guadalajara restaurant in Virginia Beach. The plan was to have a few drinks, sing Happy Birthday, and leave. But when Kajafa thought it'd be cute to smear cake on Vick's face, Vick's temper flared. Quanis Phillips, Vick's co-defendant in the dog-fighting case grabbed some cake and shoved some in Vick's face as well.
After a few minutes of heated words, Vick grabbed Kijafa and drove off. 15 minutes later, he received a phone call saying that Phillips had been shot, two minutes after Vick's departure. Kijafa burst into tears. Vick called his lawyer. The couple barely slept.
The next day, Vick had to face kids at a football camp that he was hosting at Hampton University. He told the kids to live the right way. Burning with shame heading in and out of camp, he cried. Vick steeled himself to call Reid, whose explosion left him blistered: "You shouldn't have been in that environment… You shouldn't have been out after 12…I don't know where this is going to go." Vick then dialed Dungy but lasted only five seconds before hanging up in tears. The next call? It should have been Roger Godell. Vick didn't dare.
"I should have been man enough to pick up the phone and say I'm sorry. But I was tired of saing I'm sorry-to everybody. You know? It was old. Look: no more excuses for anything. That was a bad situation. Somebody got shot. And I'm just getting out of prison; I'm still on probation; I just got reinstated into the NFL; and this is my first off-season-and this happened? I was ready to deal with whatever consequences I had to deal with, man. Because I was just ashamed, and I knew I was wrong."
Then came his mom, the worst, laying into Marcus and Michael.
"I'm sitting on the chair crying, looking all crazy in the face," Vick says. "My brother, he's sitting there, he ain't got no expression on his face because he ain't going through what I'm going through. I'm going through something totally different: I know what I want in life. I'm sure he does to, but I love the game of football. I know what I can do on the field and what I can provide for a team. That's where my heart's at, and it would've killed me to have that taken away. And I could just see in her face, she was tired. She told us it was embarrassing. She wanted to disown us. That's what she told me: She wanted to walk away. She's like, 'You went to prison for 19 months, and you scome out and you still ain't listening…"
"Right then and there I told myself, I am changing my life. I'm going to do everything they ask me to do. I'm getting myself away from this madness."
Many people credit Vick's improvement this year to his increased time in the film room, extended workouts and extra sessions with Marty Mornhinweg. None of it might have happened had Phillips been shot in the leg and Vick's probation officer, the day after Vick's birthday, ordered him to cut all ties to Virginia and relocate to Philadelphia.
Has he changed?
That's the question still haunting Vick now.
Jason Avant, a wide receiver on the Eagles, says of Vick, "The Bible says, 'The righteous man falls seven times, but he gets up again.' He's getting up and trying, and it's helping him and helping our team. Guys look at him not as a quarterback; we look at him as an inspiration. We look at him as a guy who has been through hell and back-and he's conquered it.'
Vick won't go that far. He's no longer the kid that thinks he can get away with anything, on or off the field. Friends say he seems 'free' for the first time, unburned by distractions of hangers-on and activities he couldn't resist, but there's also liberation that comes when the worst as come and gone. The world knows everything Vick has done, yet he's still alive and admired. But he reminds himself that he's just one misstep away from losing it all.
"Every day is a challenge," Vick told SI. "Still. Right now. And it will probably be that way next year and the year after. So nothing is going to change. That mean's that I've got to change."
Can Vick stay out of trouble. The better Vick does, the higher the stakes. The more fans believe. The more cynics say it is a con. The more viewers find themselves forced to take a stand, to comb through questions about race or justice or, God knows, the mystery of human nature. "You hope," Vick says, and maybe it's just a figure of speech. But it's true. We, watching, are part of it. The longer it continues, the better it gets, the more the Michael Vick story becomes about us.


text:
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