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|Barriers in Voter Restriction Amendment Could Prevent Hundreds of Thousands from Having Votes Count
Will Minnesota go from the state that was a leader in making it easy for all citizens to vote and led the nation in the highest percent of citizens voting to the state which places in its Constitution the highest barriers to voting? Proponents of the Amendment to restrict voting in MN hope so, but we hope Minnesota's voters don't agree.
Barrier #2, A Goverment Issued Photo ID - This barrier would mainly affect people who don't have a driver's license: low income Minnesotans, minorities, students, young voters, the elderly who don't drive, and disabled people. A Brennan Center for Justice study shows the disproportionate effect of a photo ID requirement:
Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie estimates that approximately 84,000 Minnesotans do not have any government issued photo ID, and another 131,000 do not have an ID with their current address. Most states have exceptions to the government issued ID for the poor and disabled, but MN's Amendment to Restrict Voting allows no exceptions.
Barrier #3 - Government Issued Photo ID Required for Mail-in Voters - Mail-in voters would be required to provide verification of their identity which is equivalent to the photo ID required for citizens voting at their polling place. This is not required by any other state, and it is not clear how this would work. This barrier would effect 293,830 voters, including military personnel, people in rural townships, and absentee voters.


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Under the state's "Subversive Activities Registration Act," passed last year and now officially on the books, "every member of a subversive organization, or an organization subject to foreign control, every foreign agent and every person who advocates, teaches, advises or practices the duty, necessity or propriety of controlling, conducting, seizing or overthrowing the government of the United States ... shall register with the Secretary of State."
Yep, you have to register to overthrow the state. And it costs you 5 bucks.
There's lots of questions surrounding this law, the most obvious being "aren't there already laws against overthrowing our government?" But other more pertinent questions also arise, such as, will this law be used against right wing militias that advocate overthrowing the government, or is it just another way to harass vaguely Muslim-looking people? SPOILER ALERT: I think it's the latter.
In reality, this is one of those classic double punishment laws. Many states, for instance, require you to register all money you made from illegal drug sales with the IRS so they can be taxed. Of course no one does this -- no one is really expected to do it -- it's just a way to charge someone arrested on drug crimes with another crime so you can put them away longer. This is called "being tough on crime" or, more simply, "being really fucking retarded."
In any event, I'm hoping for a follow up soon to see who all has registered their intention to overthrow the government. Because certainly any group looking to do that wouldn't dare violate a law requiring them to register their intentions...

subset: commoncrawl


text: Weird title, eh? If you didn't get it, I'm talking about those games where most of the action takes place on the upper screen, bust you may move the character using the Touch Screen, such as in Super Mario 64 DS. I'm excluding games like TWEWY, where moving on the TS is pretty much a need. I think most games with 3D movement using this scheme are still pretty lacking and unprecise, giving the feeling of a touch control "that's just there", which is a shame. Even big names like Final Fantasy 4 and Chrono Trigger had a less responsive touch control than older Final Fantasy III, Christ's sake! =/ But there was a game where I thought the touch screen control was pretty nice: unusually enough, it's Flower, Sun and Rain. The scenarios were all in 3D and you could use the D-pad, but I thought the touch control worked so well I barely even used it. Wasn't perfect, but was pretty easy to move around and guide yourself. Can't say I was surprised, that's not the kind of game you would expect they would do such a good job with this! What about you guys? Which game do you think has the best Touch movement, so far?


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Woah, that's weird.November 5, 2006
So, i get done with a night of liquor and song and remember before i head up the stairs that i'm fresh out of duyu (soymilk). As someone with a long, long history of being rather anxiety prone when it comes to making sure my breakfast provisions are in order before I go to sleep (long story), I made the long (uh, about 200 feet) trek to the nearest mom and pop shop. On the way, i passed by the little police box they have there and noticed the same young man sitting guard as he always is, looking bored at 1am, like he always does. At the store, I decided to get him a snack and a drink along with my breakfast supplies, just to be a mensch, you know (well, more like a chintzy means of penance – with snacks being cheap and my crimes against humanity many, korea offers me a great chance to pay back a little karma bit by bit).
As I head back, I approach the box gingerly, so as not to inspire a burst of tracer fire, and hold up the treats. I've done this before, so he's not shocked and he accepts with a smile. This time, however, I talk a little bit to him and ask him what exactly he's doing here. It's not a normal neighborhood police box, but looks to be like a guard post. Indeed, it is, he said. A former president lives here. A-ha, I thought. I figured something like that, but the house wasn't that big, the neighborhood not that swanky to go right on up to the top of the heap. But indeed, "President Choi Gyu-ha" he said.
Well. I go home to check out ol' President Choi and I realize my ears have failed me once again. He didn't say "he lives here." He said, "He lived here." You see, President Choi died two weeks ago Sunday, and I happened to hear the ambulance and see the news crew outside his house that morning, not having any idea what I was actually seeing. Interesting.
And that, my dear readers, is the excitement of my life in Korea these days (besides fun b-day parties, of course!).


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Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Pre-School Pals
E's little pre-school went on a field trip to the MK Nature Center. It was such a nice day to go exploring, the kids loved it! T man loved it too, he loved being free from his stroller and walking like a big boy! E has absolutely loved pre-school and has made so many new friends. Including one of her new best friends...Halle. The fun thing about this friendship is that if I had access to my photo albums I'm sure I could find a picture of me and her dad, Nick, at this age, since he and I have been friends since day one.
1 comments:
Kimberly said...
what cute photos! Halle is so glad to have Ella as one of her favorite friends!
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Blog Archive
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Microsoft today finally released Windows 10 Anniversary Update for PCs. Official ISO images are available for download from Microsoft. Here is how to get them.
Windows 10 version 1607 Anniversary update official ISO images can be obtained from the Microsoft's website. To download images from there, do the following.
- Open the following page at Microsoft's official web site.
- Click on the Select edition option and select the desired edition.
- Next, follow the further instruction to get the ISO file in the language you need.
- Download 32-bit or 64-bit setup ISO file:


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MTN Business has launched Bring Your Business Online, a platform that gives small and medium-sized businesses (SME) increased visibility by providing online presence on an MTN managed domain for less than R20 a month.
The service is available for R199 per year on a non-contractual basis, once the year is complete, the SME will have the option to renew the contract or upgrade to one of the five MTN website-in-a-box solutions available.
"SMEs are the lifeblood of the South African economy, however, many of them are limited from reaching their full potential because they rely on word of mouth or traditional methods of promoting their services."
"With this new solution, MTN Business gives them a secure online platform to expand their reach through the expansive footprint of the digital world," said Alpheus Mangale, chief enterprise and business officer at MTN Business.
The first 500 business owners to register for the service will receive the service free for the first 12 months, MTN said.
"Furthermore, to give value to our SMME customers, MTN will host seminars and provide access to a number of industry seminars geared towards entrepreneurs. These and other networking sessions will give them the opportunity to gain insight on issues relevant to them with subject matter experts," Mangale said.
Source: www.businesstech.co.za


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Sunday, September 14, 2014
Photo Challenge - Movement
I'm posting this photo for the challenge at Donna's blog. Movement is the challenge.
I chose the movement of the water at an outdoor fountain during my walk tonight. You can see the reflection of the aqua green rails being distorted by the waves in the water as it splashes down into the reservoir. Towards the bottom of the photo is darker because there is a channel that goes all the way around the fountain that holds water but it's a deeper than the space above. In the deeper water the trees are being reflected.
Posted by Sylvia
Labels: movement, photo challenge, reflection, water, waves
2 comments:
Thank you for joining in on the challenge this month! Not only did you showcase movement, but you also featured texture and reflections with this composition. Very creative!ReplyDelete
What an interesting photo. You've captured the movement of water flowing in a narrow space well. The distortion of the reflection is great.ReplyDelete
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Monday, December 10, 2012
The Best LDS Church Book? "Teachings of ...'
What is the best LDS Church book, outside of the Standard Works?
My choice is clear and firm -- "Teachings of the Prophet Joseph Smith."
This book, compiled by Joseph Fielding Smith, is a class ahead of every other church book.
On my mission, "Jesus the Christ," by James Talmage, was always reputed to be the best book.
However, I've found that book to be highly over-rated, plus Elder Talmage used a wordy writing style that makes it difficult to understand what he's attempting to convey.
No. "Teachings of the Prophet Joseph Smith" should be standard issue for every LDS missionary.
I'd wager that any church member will learn more doctrine from "Teachings" than any other church book outside of the scriptures themselves.
Relying primarily on Documentary History of the Church, this book is a gem of doctrine and clarity. It also uses other sermons and writings from the Prophet Joseph Smith, that were hard to find before.
Once a gospel student has studied "Teachings," the next step is Documentary History of the Church. It's seven volumes contain not only a wealth of doctrine, but also the original history of the restored church in its earliest years.
No one is a true gospel student or scholar, if they haven't read "Teachings" and the DHC.
NOTE: This article and all of the NighUntoKolob blog are NOT an official website of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. They are the author's conclusions and opinions only.
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
When Lightning Doesn't Strike, Thanks To Priesthood Power
By Lynn Arave
It was late summer, some years ago (August 2000) and myself, a son, and several friends were hiking Kings Peak, the tallest point in Utah, at 13,528 feet above sea level, from our campsite in Henry's Fork.
Utah's Uinta Mountains are rugged and remote. It was about a 10-mile backpack in to our base camp near Dollar Lake. Then, it was about another nine miles, one-way to Kings Peak, in a hike on the second day.
The weather looked good that morning, but distant clouds were building as we scrambled steeply up to Anderson Pass, part of the roof of Utah.
Kings Peak was reached and three of us decided to take the several mile trek over the neighboring South Kings Peak, the state's second-highest point at 13,512 feet above sea level.
As I would later readily notice in pictures I took, black, stormy clouds were headed our way, but I remained just focused on reaching the second summit at all costs and I had to be the first one there.
My son called it quits at the dip line, halfway between the two peaks. He said he'd wait for us there.
Running at times in my race to the top, even some sprinkles of rain didn't faze my plans. (I did arrive there first, but barely.)
After a brief reflection on the glory of reaching Utah's tallest two peaks in the same day -- and after snapping pictures -- we headed down and the rain gradually became a steady drizzle, as we met up with my son.
Looking for a way out to the east, my son and I pondered a route down to the Painter's Basin below, in front of a steep rockslide area. I couldn't see if a rocky chute at the bottom was passable or not, since its middle and bottom not visible.
As I pondered safety for such a retreat, my friend – with his two ski poles – suddenly went for it and raced downward into the chute and was quickly out of sight.
Then, it became a downpour of heavy, cold rain. The rockslide started moving itself, as it became saturated with moisture. It was now no longer safe to walk down that steep slope.
Getting cold, I finally pulled out my raincoat and advised my son to do the same. But despite my instructions that morning to not forget such attire, my son neglected to do just that. He had his music player, but no raincoat.
So, I decided it wasn't safe to climb back to Kings Peak, the way we had come. We needed to look for another way down to the south, where it was warmer – and we needed to keep moving for warmth – as one of us lacked rain gear.
We began crossing a nearly mile-long field of loose rocks. There was no cover to be found.
Soon, the rain nearly stopped as we were half-way across the seemingly void.
However, then thunder and lightning were moving in quickly behind us. You could smell burnt ozone in the air and our hair was beginning to stand on end. We were in immediate danger from lightning.
We were the tallest things around and prime targets for lightning. Even crouching or lying down, we were still the tallest things around.
I immediately thought of letting my wife down in failing to protect her son, in favor of "bagging two peaks."
I prayed for help on what to do and in a split second, I had an answer. Three distinct words came into my head from a still small voice, "Use the Priesthood," it said.
An ongoing conversation with a still, small voice, in my head continued. "How will I know what to say?," I asked.
"You'll know" was the instant reply.
So, quickly telling my son I was going to use the priesthood to save us, I brought my right arm to the square and gave one of those unusual, for the particular circumstances kind of priesthood blessings.
I surprised myself by commanding in the name of Jesus Christ and by the Holy Melchizedek Priesthood, for the lightning and the storm to move away from us and stated that we would be safe now.
That wording did not come from me. My own response would have been to command the lightning to stop all together.
After that less that 30-second blessing on nature, both my son and I felt serene comfort and safety.
Sure enough, in the next few minutes we noticed that the storm curved sharply to the west, away from us.
My son and I had to hike and scramble an extra six total miles out of our way, but I knew somewhere ahead of us was Trail Rider Pass and an alternate path back to our basecamp. (That's because some 10 years earlier, a brother and I had been temporarily lost in that area, after we encountered a sign that was turned the wrong direction.)
Several hours after my two friends had arrived at camp, we came in. not the same people we had been before that trek. We recounted our tale and even my professed atheist friend seemed to perk up as I talked.
Now we not only had first-hand experience at the power of nature, but more so about the power of the priesthood.
There's a reason why the Priesthood Blessing I used isn't written down. It doesn't need to be.
Revelation is given, as you need it, for the circumstances. That is, if you are in tune enough to hear that still, small voice of the Holy Ghost.
And, there's nothing like a disaster to humble you and make you far more sensitive to the Spirit.
(-This experience was partially and briefly recounted in the LDS Church News, Sept. 16, 2000, p. 18.)
-In further retrospect, I feel extra blessed, because I know a young couple who died after lightning struck them on Lone Peak, Salt Lake County, a few years later. They apparently had no warning.
NOTE: The above 3 photos are of myself, on, or just below Kings Peak, on various hiking trips there,
NOTE: This article and all of the NighUntoKolob blog are NOT an official website of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. They are the author's conclusions and opinions only.
Monday, December 3, 2012
Find Your Answers In The Scriptures
There's seems to be a widening gap in The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.
It involves speculation and ignorance on questions and discussions that could be answered from the church's standard works.
Too many members of the church have not read or studied ALL of the standard works and thus do not know what answers these scriptures have for often-asked questions.
Also, ever since President Gordon B. Hinckley challenged church members to read the Book of Mormon in 2005-2006, for too many church members that is all they seem to do – read the Book of Mormon over and over again.
They neglect other modern revelations, like the Doctrine and Covenants and say they aren't up to the challenge of reading the symbolic and often hard-to-grasp Old Testament.
The Book of Mormon is the "keystone" to the gospel, but it is but one of the four standard works of the church.
The newest church members need the Book of Mormon most for their diet of milk. But, soon, they need meat and that's where the other scriptures come in.
Also, reading the other standard works of the church will affirm to members the validity and consistency of the Book of Mormon, as well as boost testimonies.
In the past few months, I've met church members who speculated about such things as if this was the wickedest earth and what Kolob is. The answers to these questions are in the scriptures (but not in the Book of Mormon).
President Harold B. Lee said it best when he gave this counsel in the December 1972 Ensign Magazine (and it has not been repeated nearly enough over the decades):
"I say that we need to teach our people to find their answers in the scriptures. If only each of us would be wise enough to say that we aren't able to answer any question unless we can find a doctrinal answer in the scriptures! And if we hear someone teaching something that is contrary to what is in the scriptures, each of us may know whether the things spoken are false—it is as simple as that. But the unfortunate thing is that so many of us are not reading the scriptures. We do not know what is in them, and therefore we speculate about the things that we ought to have found in the scriptures themselves. I think that therein is one of our biggest dangers of today.
"When I meet with our missionaries and they ask questions about things pertaining to the temple, I say to them, as I close the discussion, "I don't dare answer any of your questions unless I can find an answer in the standard works or in the authentic declarations of presidents of the Church."
"The Lord has given us in the standard works the means by which we should measure truth and untruth. May we all heed his word: "Thou shalt take the things which thou hast received, which have been given unto thee in my scriptures for a law, to be my law to govern my church." (D&C 42:59.)"
NOTE: This article and all of the NighUntoKolob blog are NOT an official website of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. They are the author's conclusions and opinions only.
Amp Up Your Testimony With The 'Inspired Version'
There's more than just the Book of Mormon, the Doctrine and Covenants and the Pearl of Great Price as proof that Joseph Smith was a prophet and that The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is the only true and living Church on the face of the Earth.
(All too many church members these days read ONLY the Book of Mormon over and over again and nothing else.)
(All too many church members these days read ONLY the Book of Mormon over and over again and nothing else.)
There's also, among other things, the "Inspired Version" of the Bible, that Joseph Smith produced.
Sometimes also referred to as "The Joseph Smith Translation," much of this work is footnoted in the LDS Church's Standard Works.
However, you can amp up your own testimony of both Joseph Smith and the Church by studying this marvelous work on your own and cross referencing it with the King James Version of the Bible.
Although never completed by the Prophet Joseph Smith, I've compared his Inspired Translation word-for-word with the entire Bible and I came away with a greater testimony, as well as some enhanced Gospel knowledge.
Joseph Smith didn't go through the Bible word-for-word, or even book-by-book in the Bible when he used direct revelation to produce his own Biblical version. He went through the Bible by subject and that work led to many other great revelations, such as D&C section 76.
The Lord did caution Joseph Smith to "hold thy peace" and "not teach them until ye have received them in full." (D&C 42:57)
This is a direct reference to this "Inspired Translation" of the Bible and this injunction from the Lord is obviously why the Church does not use the "Inspired Translation" directly and rather the King James Version of the Bible.
However, for personal use, there's likely nothing wrong with reading the Inspired Translation, as long as it is studied in conjunction with the Standard Works.
Note that the King James Bible still works best for all missionary work and related conversations.
It is also worth noting that the copyright to Joseph Smith's Inspired Translation of the Bible is held by the Community of Christ, formerly the Reorganized Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.
So, does that outside copyright mean it is still accurate, as Joseph Smith penned it?
Yes, pretty much.
The late LDS Church Scholar Robert J. Matthews was able to study and compare the original Inspired Translation manuscript with the Community of Christ's version (see Ensign Magazine, Dec. 1972, p. 63). He found only a few small changes made and on a whole concluded the work "accurately represents" what Joseph Smith penned.
(The only change made in the Inspired Translation that I have a problem with is also one of the few Brother Matthew pointed out – Revelation 1:6. The word "and" was deleted from that verse, to better conform to a belief the Community of Christ has, that there is no plurality of Gods.)
Notwithstanding, as a whole, the Inspired Translation is simply incredible, majestic and powerful.
It reaffirms the Church's 8th Article of Faith, that proclaims a belief in the Bible, "as far as it is translated correctly." That's because the Inspired Translation contains a large sampling of just how many errors have crept into the Bible.
And, the LDS Church does use a portion of the Inspired Translation in the Standard Works.
The Book of Moses is simply an extraction from the Book of Genesis from Joseph Smith's translation of the Bible (as stated in the "Introductory Note" at the beginning of the Pearl of Great Price). So also is "Joseph Smith – Matthew" in the PGP an extraction from the Prophet's own Inspired Translation of Matthew Chapter 24.
(Brigham Young had copies made of the above portions of the Joseph Smith Translation of the Bible, before the Saints went westward and this became the Book of Moses and Joseph Smith – Matthew. Meanwhile, the entire Inspired Translation ended up in the hands of Emma Smith, who eventually gave it to the Reorganized Church.)
What are some key samples of Joseph Smith's Translation of the Bible that aren't well known, in contrast to the previously mentioned portions contained in the Pearl of Great Price?
I would give you four samples, for your own comparison and study.
1. Inspired Version, Exodus 22:18, comparable to Exodus 22:18 in the King James Version: "Thou shalt not suffer a murderer to live."
2. Inspired Version, Mark 9:20, comparable to Mark 9:23, in the King James Version: "Jesus said unto him, If thou wilt believe all things I shall say unto you, this is possible to him that believeth."
3. Inspired Version, Luke 23:35, comparable to Luke 23:34 in the King James Version: "Then said Jesus, Father, forgive them; for they know not what they do. (Meaning the soldiers who crucified him.) And they parted his raiment and cast lots."
4. Inspired Version, Matthew 12:14, comparable to Matthew 12:16, in the King James Version: "Behold, I will send your forth as sheep in the midst of wolves; be ye therefore wise servants, and as harmless as doves."
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2018 Race Schedule:
8.12 - Ironman 70.3 Steelhead
9.09 - Ironman 70.3 Santa Cruz
9.30 - Ironman 70.3 Cozumel
11.4 - Ironman 70.3 South American Championship, Buenos Aires
12.2 - Ironman 70.3 Cartagena
12.9 - Challenge Daytona 70.3
2017 race Results:
9.24 - Ironman 70.3 Augusta - 3rd PLACE
8.13 - Ironman 70.3 Steelhead - 2nd PLACE
7.16 - Ironman 70.3 Racine - 3rd PLACE
6.11 - Ironman 70.3 Eagleman - 2nd PLACE
5.14 - Ironman 70.3 Monterrey - 10th Place
3.11 - ITU CAMTRI Sarasota - 15th Place
2.26 - ITU CAMTRI Habana - 8th Place
2017 Major League Triathlon - #INDYCATS
9.09 - MLT Cleveland - Team 6th Place
8.26 - MLT Vail Valley - Team 3rd Place
6.03 - MLT Atlantic City - Team 2nd Place
5.20 - MLT Charlotte - Team 6th Place
sponsorship & support
2017 PODIUM photos
about Alissa
Alissa (McKaig) Doehla is a top ranked US Professional Triathlete specializing in the 70.3 distance and is a former US Professional Distance Runner from New Haven, IN.
Alissa ran professionally from 2009-2015, spending four of those years at ZAP Fitness in Blowing Rock, NC. She has twice represented Team USA; in 2011 on the bronze medal winning World XC team and the 2011 World Marathon team. In 2012, Alissa placed 8th in the Olympic Marathon Trials in Houston with a time of 2:31:56; she has run 15:28 for the 5,000m and 32:14 for the 10,000m.
2017 was Alissa's Rookie Season as a Professional Triathlete and she had 4 consecutive Top 3 finishes in Ironman 70.3 races. In January 2016, Alissa raced her first ever triathlon and became an Elite in August 2016 after winning the Overall title at the 2016 USA Triathlon Age Group National Championships in Omaha.
Alissa lives and trains in Tryon, NC, with her husband Kyle and Great Dane Frankie. She spends her free time reading about true crime and seeking out local breakfast joints post workout. Alissa is coached by Greg Mueller of Innovative Endurance.
CONTACT Me
Hey there!
Thanks for checking out my website! For more info on what I am up to, please check out my social media pages. Feel free to reach out via email or drop me a line in the form below! I'd love to hear from you and will do my best to reply as quickly as possible.


text: Section: Wanted Title: B6 S4 18inch wheels and tires Price: 2,000.00 Location: NY/NJ Date: October 24, 2004 Contact: Greg Email: gdorman at optonline.net Phone: Description: NO PICTURES. Just like the topic says. Please email DominickDiprimo at vantageassociates.net Thanks!!! URL: http://www.audifans.com/marketplace/show.php?table=pm_audifans_Wanted&id=749 -- [ This is an automated message ] [ You are receiving this message ] [ because you signed up for the ] [ Marketplace email notification. ]


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French Quarter, New Orleans, Louisiana
Oh boy, I am digging into the archives now. I need to get some shooting or scanning going this week...
St. Louis Cemetery #1New Orleans, Louisiana
I had a random day off today, and spent some of it chipping away at my photo cataloging project. I realized that I never really sorted or did too much with the photos from my first New Orleans trip. I think I'll be digging into those again soon.
New Orleans, Louisiana
I don't think there is a single 90 degree angle in New Orleans!


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Celebrity Style: Shay Mitchell's Neon Nails
Celebrity makeup and nail style can be recreated using vegan and cruelty free makeup and nail polish.
Shay Mitchell's Neon Nails
|Shay Mitchell with Neon Yellow Nails
Blog for Joy of Vegan Beauty Boutique. Joy of Vegan Beauty stocks only cruelty free and vegan beauty products. All our cosmetics are also non-toxic. No animal testing was done for these beauty products. At Joy of Vegan beauty, we believe cosmetics do not have to cause harm to other living creatures, which is why we only stock all vegan products that are not tested on animals. Follow Your Heart! Go Vegan!
|Shay Mitchell with Neon Yellow Nails


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Married and thoroughly loving life!
No favourite stories listed.
My dear, I am 47 and I will run you out of steam in no time.... I Like that!! :DThe I was 25 and slept with a man who was 42. He was on my top 3 of best sex ever. I don't usually look for older men to have sex with this situation kind of happened. In my experience with him older men are by far more experienced and can last longer. They seem to have a lot more patience than younger guys and also have a bit more "pillow respect" as I call it, not just trying to get his but wants the girl to be satisfied too.
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WTH......Fuck!! :D
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I can honestly say the most memorable times of my life were spent in "bum fuck", Maine at my Uncle Mark's house. I was 17 years old and lived in Boston when my mom sent me up there, I had been a pretty naughty girl, skipping school and sneaking out of the house. I never listened to her; I couldn't care less about what she had to say. I was a beautiful 5'3 long legged "hottie" with shoulder...
Added 19 Oct 2014 | Category Incest
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"Chris, can you get down here and help me please," I yelled from the living room. "Be right down Liz," He yelled back. For the last hour I had been decorating my twin brother Chris and Uncle Jimmy's house for New Years 2012; my uncle Jimmy has been the king of New Years in our family since I can remember. "Finally," I said to Chris. "Here hang these lanterns around the deck please." ...
Added 19 May 2013 | Category Incest
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Thank-you to all my Lushies who inspire me to write!! This is a spin-off from Happy Fucking New Year, which can be found on my profile page. "Wow," I said to myself rubbing my body with soap. The memory of the most taboo experience of my life flooded my mind; the thought of my uncle and my brother inside of me still made my pussy dripping wet even a week later. I felt ashamed but,...
Added 12 Feb 2013 | Category Incest
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This is a work of fiction, pure fantasy put to words J . Enjoy. After divorcing my husband of ten years I needed an outlet. I was a homemaker, caring for my children and my home on a daily basis. My ex-husband and I had a typical marriage; he worked, I stayed at home and our intimacy, well it was usually few and far between. He and I usually shared scheduled sex sessions that...
Added 20 Jan 2012 | Category Straight Sex
| Votes 21 | Avg Score 5
| Views 6,330
| 15 Comments
I pulled my shirt over my head and stood in front of the mirror. I patted the wrinkles out of my tight shirt and short denim skirt and I looked myself over. I knew this outfit was a little much for a dentist appointment but, Dr. Mark was anything but the lame old dentist. He was about 6 ft. tall, silky dark hair and had blue eyes that I could stare into forever; my panties moistened at...
Added 12 Jan 2012 | Category Straight Sex
| Votes 22 | Avg Score 4.8
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Winter, "Wonder" & Sex? Why Yes! Every year for the past ten, my husband and I have had the pleasure of spending our January anniversary in the mountains of Georgia. Del and I are a quite fond of winter weather. Every year we rent the same log cabin for a week-end. Usually the same couple goes with us each year but, our 2010 trip was different. Our dear friends were unable to go due to work....
Added 10 Nov 2011 | Category Group Sex
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"Show me your tits, Elisabeth." My cousin Tony teased as he played cards with his friends. "Fuck off, Tony," I said, putting one hand on my hip. "You ain't seeing these babies." Tony and I were close, but not that close. I came to live with him and my aunt when my parents were killed in a car accident. I was eight years old at the time, and had no real understanding of death and how...
Added 16 Apr 2015 | Category Incest
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A week ago I made a devilish bet with my cousin Tony. The experience totally changed the way I saw him. Before that day, Tony was my cousin and my friend; now I saw him as fair game. I figured I could toy with him and see how far I could actually get him to go. First I wanted to figure out what he was thinking, what had persuaded him to make such a wager with me; I knew in my mind pursuing...
Added 14 Apr 2015 | Category Incest
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This story is for my good friend Kantgetenuf I walked through the busy street of New York hurriedly trying to get to work. For the last five years I was an accountant for a very large firm. I enjoyed my job and devoted every minute of my life to my company in hopes for a big promotion. As I walked into my building Mr. Dean, my C.E.O, spotted me and called me to his elevator. "Miss D'Arcy."...
Added 21 Nov 2011 | Category Straight Sex
| Votes 27 | Avg Score 4.92
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"Stephen you're such a jack-ass," I yelled as my head came back above the water. Stephen, my best friend's brother had just pushed me in the pool clothes and all. He stood above me at the edge of the pool and said, "Well Leigh, you're a bitch." Then he walked off. Stephen behaves like a 13 year old trapped in a hot, 19 year olds body. I've caught myself a time or two checking out...
Added 17 Nov 2011 | Category Straight Sex
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American League Two-a-Days: Oakland Athletics
LiveBall Sports previews the American League this week.
Team Synopsis: Oakland Athletics
2013 record: 96-66
2013 runs scored: 767
2013 runs against: 625
2013 pythag. record: 96-66
On June 1, 2012, no team in baseball was more inept at scoring runs than the Oakland Athletics. Since, no team has been better.
The Athletics were a complete team last year: offense, defense, rotation, bullpen. They were my pick to represent the AL in the World Series. They led 2-1 and had a lead late in the game at Detroit in Game 4 of the ALDS, but coughed up the lead, then went back to Oakland in Game 5 and ran into a determined Justin Verlander. Season over.
It will be nearly impossible for the A's to repeat 2013, a year in which basically everything went right in the regular season.
Who is having a good spring?
C Stephen Vogt, SS Jed Lowrie, and OF Josh Reddick are the regulars having strong starts, although no one is standing out offensively for the A's more than 1Bs Brandon Moss, and Daric Barton. LHP Scott Kazmir, an aggressive offseason acquisition from the Indians, looked good in his outing.
Reasons to be optimistic about the 2014 Athletics
They were really excellent last season. The A's have no real offensive weaknesses in their lineup. Alberto Callaspo may not be a great idea of an everyday second baseman, but if you're willing to live with the defensive hit of him and Jed Lowrie up the middle, the A's can put offensive assets in at all 9 spots in the lineup. Sometimes they'll go with Eric Sogard at second who doesn't really have much power, but the A's idea of a nine hitter is a .322 on base guy. Or as the Yankees call it, a top of the order guy.
Reasons to be realistic about the 2014 Athletics
There are a lot of regression factors with the defense and the bullpen that will hammer the A's this year. It's still conceivable that the A's could lead the league in run prevention in 2014. They do play home games below sea level and with a ton of foul territory. But they are looking up at the Royals and the Tigers in that regard. And the rotation does leave a lot to be desired, although part of Billy Beane's plan is to always trade off starting pitchers before they get expensive.
The A's are overall a very good defensive team, but there is a delicate balance between having nine hitters in the lineup and having guys who can defend the middle of the diamond. The A's have both types of players on their roster, but baseball rules require them to play only one at a time.
Oakland has never really invested in their farm system very much, and while other organizations can pull guys up at mid-season to help the push for the playoffs, the A's usually are stuck going bargain shopping outside the organization. Every once in a while you can pluck Alberto Callaspo or John Jaso, but it isn't a reliable way to cheaply improve the roster. At least not during the season.
The Projections
The Fangraphs projected team WAR for the 2014 Athletics is 38.4, 8th in the American League. Their 23.9 Batters WAR projection is 3rd in the AL. Their 14.5 Pitchers WAR projection is 8th in the AL. Cool Standings projects the 2014 Athletics to win 86 games, a 10 win decline over last season. Josh Donaldson is the Indian with the best 2014 projection with an average WAR projection of 4.5. Scott Kazmir is the pitcher with the best average projection at 2.4 WAR.
The Athletics vs the rest of the AL West
The AL West is a below average division, and the weakest of the AL divisions in 2014. This despite having four above average teams and an "improved" Astros team. This is the case because no teams in the AL West are a lock to win 90 games. According to Cool Standings, the division winner is projected to win 86 games. It's a true four team race in 2014. The Astros will not participate.
LiveBall Sports Projection for the 2014 Oakland Athletics
It is hard to build a preseason favorite without stars, and the 2014 A's aren't an exception. This is not the preseason favorite that the Tigers and the Red Sox are, even though the A's were just as good as those teams last year. The truth is, when making projections, teams that feature Pedroia/Ortiz and Cabrera/Verlander are just starting ahead of a team that's best two players are Josh Donaldson and Coco Crisp.
My prediction for the 2014 Athletics is right in line with what the numbers think of them: 86-76. This is a prediction that the A's can easily outperform. There is better than 86 win talent on the roster. But even as sensitive to the concept of replacement level as the A's are and have always been, a team that is built this way can endure long stretches of ineffective hitting or pitching. And if the whole team is failing to produce, there's not one thing the general manager or field manager can do to get the dead weight out of the lineup. Last year the A's had the benefit of a strong start to finish effort from the entire roster, but if they don't get a similar effort from this group, they will fall short of the 90-win mark.
American League Two-a-Days: Cleveland Indians
LiveBall Sports previews the American League this week.
Team Synopsis: Cleveland Indians
2013 record: 92-70
2013 runs scored: 745
2013 runs against: 662
2013 pythag. record: 90-72
The Cleveland Indians were a pretty good team in 2013, and made the postseason for the first time since 2007. It's hard to argue, however, that they were one of the five best teams in the American League a year ago. By Pythagorean record, they were actually better than the Rays, and thus were one of the five best teams in the AL, but the Indians had a huge split last year between performance against good teams and bad teams. They won their final ten games of the regular season against the Astros, White Sox, and Twins, and made the playoffs by a single game.
The schedule is not so unbalanced that you can call the Indians' run a fluke — it wasn't fluky. But against playoff caliber opponents, the Indians went 14-32 (.291) last season. Against the White Sox, Astros, and Twins, the Indians went 36-8 (.818) including 17-2 and a streak that included the final 14 games against the Sox. If the White Sox had been a little less putrid last year, the Rangers are in the postseason instead of the Indians. Given the splits above, it's hard to imagine one of the true best teams in the AL looking that inept against playoff competition. They were closer to average than great last year.
But the real question those splits suggest is whether the Indians are any good going forward?
Who is having a good spring?
The Indians have a great offensive infield, and Asdrubal Cabrera, Jason Kipnis, and Mike Aviles are all raking in spring training. Ryan Raburn, who has the spirit of an infielder, but the glove of a DH, has popped two spring homers. Mike Brantley got a contract extension in the offseason, he's hitting .600 this month — a thing that can happen in spring training. Justin Masterson and Carlos Carrasco are leading the pitching staff.
Reasons to be optimistic about the 2014 Indians
The offensive depth that the Indians have is better than any team in baseball, with two possible exception in the Oakland Athletics and Tampa Bay Rays. At many positions, the Indians go with a straight platoon, and always gain the handedness advantage. This turns guys like Ryan Raburn, David Murphy, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Mike Aviles into useful offensive players.
If you didn't follow the Indians last year, you may not be aware that Yan Gomes is one of the best catchers in the American League. He is.
Reasons to be realistic about the 2014 Indians
The Indians pitching staff was excellent last season, and a great surprise, but this is in many was a bunch of misfit parts that have been glued together to form a staff. You have a singular top-rotation talent in Danny Salazar, who hasn't pitched a full 6-month season at any level yet. You have a nominal staff ace in Justin Masterson, who has one of the largest platoon splits in baseball. You have Zach McAllister and Cory Kluber, who are both nice pitchers, but profile best as mid-rotation guys. All of the last three names spent time on the DL last season. You have Carrasco, who was dreadful as a starter last year but useful in the bullpen. They have Trevor Bauer, the 3rd pick in the MLB draft two years ago, who sits 95-97 on his fastball but can't find the strike zone. And Tyler Cloyd, a non-roster invite acquired from the Phillies organization.
Pitching coach Mickey Callaway is tasked with turning Salazar and a lot of loose fitting parts into something that can replace a rotation that was at the top of the AL in strikeouts a year ago and featured Ubaldo Jimenez (now Baltimore's ace), and Scott Kazmir (now Oakland's ace). It's hard to see this team staying competitive without acquiring a pitcher at some point.
Cleveland is one of baseball's worst defensive teams, especially in the infield, where they are below average across the board. The outfield defense is at least adequate, and Gomes is really good behind the dish. But Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Jason Kipnis are all well below average defenders at their positions. You can pencil Cleveland in to give up 700-750 runs this season, up from last year's 662.
The Projections
The Fangraphs projected team WAR for the 2014 Indians is 36.9, 10th in the American League. Their 22.7 Batters WAR projection is 8th in the AL. Their 14.1 Pitchers WAR projection is 10th in the AL. Cool Standings projects the 2014 Indians to win 83 games, a 9 win decline over last season. Carlos Santana is the Indian with the best 2014 projection with an average WAR projection of 3.5. Danny Salazar and Justin Masterson are pitchers with the best average projection at 3.2 WAR.
The Indians vs the rest of the AL Central
The AL Central is an above average division this year. The Tigers enter the season with one of the best statistical profiles of any team. The Royals and Indians are above average opponents with some downside potential. The Twins should be improved, and have the consensus best farm system, which should help avoid a repeat of the end of last year when they were running a sub-MLB lineup out. The White Sox are more volatile this year than last, and will have some upside to go with the worst downside in MLB.
LiveBall Sports Projection for the 2014 Cleveland Indians
In mid-September, it wasn't that clear that the Indians were going to pay off their good season with a playoff run. But a 10 game winning streak put them over the top and got them to host the wild card playoff. They lost to the Rays, and the playoff run was short lived. The real problem is that the construction of last years Indians team was to overpay free agents who are now in their 30's like Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn. With Swisher/Bourn/Cabrera on the decline and the farm talent like Francisco Lindor a half-year away, that fairly conservative offensive projection of 10th in the AL in WAR could crater.
With the rotation not quite ready to pick up the slack, the Indians could be in for a 2012-type season. A season like that wouldn't really change the level of talent in the organization, but when you look at their performance against the best teams, the Indians are going to need a lot of improvement that just isn't coming. This is a 74-88 team.
American League Two-a-Days: New York Yankees
LiveBall Sports previews the American League this week.
Team Synopsis: New York Yankees
2013 record: 85-77
2013 runs scored: 650
2013 runs against: 671
2013 pythag. record: 79-83
The hard truth is that the Yankees are one of the five worst teams in the AL. They were last year, and they are going to be again this year. It's the Astros, White Sox, Orioles, Twins, and Yankees at the bottom of the league.
The Yankees separated themselves this year by spending a lot of money. They have Masahiro Tanaka on the mound, Jacoby Ellsbury patrolling center, Carlos Beltran in right, and Brian McCann behind the plate. Those may well be the four best players on the team, and none was here last year.
But none of it matters, because they were unable to retain one of the best players in the AL, Robinson Cano. He's replaced with Brian Roberts and the Yankees just aren't much better than last year.
Who is having a good spring?
McCann and Francisco Cervelli, back from suspension and injury, give the Yankees the top 1-2 catching punch in the AL. They have almost identical numbers this spring, combining for 2 HRs and 20 total bases. 3B Kelly Johnson was the team's value signing, and he adds another 10 total bases this spring. Tanaka has been as advertised, and Hiroki Kuroda, who faded badly at the end of last season, is off to a nice start.
Reasons to be optimistic about the 2014 Yankees
The Yankees do not get enough credit for their superb advanced scouting and analytic approach, perhaps as good as any in the game. If you watch the Yankee defensive positioning over a long time, it's clear they are more prepared to play than a lot of other teams. This seems to be a fairly repeatable skill for them, and helped the Yankees into the top four in the AL in terms of run prevention last season.
The Yankees should be above average at preventing runs again this year. This rotation is stronger than it was a year ago, and they have enough live arms to replace Mariano Rivera in the bullpen. Replacing a legend isn't going to be the easiest part of David Robertson's career, but he's going to get a lot of help from starters going deep into games.
Reasons to be realistic about the 2014 Yankees
The offense was terrible last season, and even with all the shiny new pieces the Yankees have added this year, there are out-makers throughout the lineup. The players with above average OBP projections in the lineup are: McCann, Ellsbury, Gardner, Teixiera, Beltran, and whatever PAs you can get from Derek Jeter this year. Not one player in the lineup is projected to do better than .340 in on-base percentage. By comparison, the Kansas City Royals have four players with projected OBP above .340. Having Alfonso Soriano, Ichiro, and Roberts rotating between DH and the bench isn't going to help matters.
It's not like this Yankee lineup is power-heavy either. You take the list above, subtract Jeter but add Soriano, and that's all the above average power in the Yankee lineup.
This lineup should be more productive than last season, but it's not much support for the pitching staff.
The Projections
The Fangraphs projected team WAR for the 2014 Yankees is 39.7, 5th in the American League. Their 20.9 Batters WAR projection is 11th in the AL. Their 18.8 Pitchers WAR projection is 3rd in the AL. Cool Standings projects the 2014 Yankees to win 83 games, a 2 win decline over last season. Masahiro Tanaka is the Yankee with the best 2014 projection with an average WAR projection of 4.7. Jacoby Ellsbury is the position player with the best average projection at 4.3 WAR.
The Yankees vs the rest of the AL East
The AL East is baseball's strongest division in 2014. The Rays and Red Sox are top seven teams, in the elite class of baseball teams, and the Yankees and Blue Jays are anticipated to be top-half teams. The Orioles are probably the best team expected to finish in fifth this season. The Blue Jays are a longshot contender, but the Red Sox and the Rays are the class of the AL East this year.
LiveBall Sports Projection for the 2014 New York Yankees
I see almost no way the Yankees can avoid going backwards in terms of win total in 2014. This is a better team than last year. But the more you dug into last year's Yankees team, the worse they looked. Frankly, on the offensive end alone, there's about 50 runs floating around there that came by way of non-repeatable offensive skill. Ellsbury, Teixiera, McCann, Beltran, and Jeter are good, but I don't know if there' s 50 offensive runs there total. And that's BEFORE you remember Cano isn't in this lineup.
Offensively, that runs scored number could slide back from 650. And that runs prevented number also has a good chance to slide backwards (although this team is stronger defensively). And so the prediction here is that the Yankees will miss the 80 win plateau for the first (and last) time in the Jeter era, going 76-86. Tanaka will not be a unanimous rookie of the year. And the 2014 season will be a struggle in the way the 2013 season wasn't, because there will be no easy answers.
American League Two-a-Days: Minnesota Twins
LiveBall Sports previews the American League this week.
Team Synopsis: Minnesota Twins
2013 record: 66-96
2013 runs scored: 614
2013 runs against: 788
2013 pythag. record: 63-99
The Twins were a terrible team last year, a year in which everyone expected them to struggle. In spite of a nice rebound year for Joe Mauer, a downballot MVP guy, the Twins bottomed out and finally sold off all their veteran pieces. Trading Justin Morneau to the Pirates signaled the end of an era. The Twins had been tied to that roster contractually ever since they won the division in 2010 and paid Joe Mauer the moon to stay in town.
Mauer's contract still looks okay as he approaches the mid-way point. He's still one of the best players in baseball. Credit the Twins for not pulling back on payroll, but going out to the free agent market and bringing in RHP Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes to help out now.
Who is having a good spring?
2B Brian Dozier has picked up where he left off last season, flashing power in 2013 for the first time. Dozier is in the conversation for second best 2B in the American League, after Robbie Cano. He put up roughly the same slugging percentage as Ian Kinsler while playing 81 games at Target Field, a pitcher's park. German-born OF Max Keplar hasn't played against the big leaguer's much, but his prospect status makes his team-leading 6 hits notable. Phil Hughes has been sensational in two spring starts.
Reasons to be optimistic about the 2014 Twins
There are lots of reasons for optimism. The inefficient spending is finally off the books, although you can call into question giving $50 million to Ricky Nolasco. Two years ago, the Twins were an unathletic group who swung too much, didn't walk or hit for power, and was trying to play like this as defenses around the league were getting better positioned and more athletic. Last year's team was a much more athletic, patient bunch. They were an injured group last year, so this year, the offense could be an actual asset. It wouldn't be terribly shocking if the Twins posted a league average or better runs scored.
At the same time, this is the best the Twins pitching has been in three seasons. There's no top end starter on this staff, but Hughes, Nolasco, Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey, Scott Diamond, Sam Deduno, and Vance Worley are all mid-rotation types. A lot went wrong for the Twins on the pitching end last year, and the five guys above who were on the team last year were surrounded by the worst fill in players imaginable. The Twins are better across the board this year, and with the AL's best farm system, more help is on the way soon.
Reasons to be realistic about the 2014 Astros
Joe Mauer is on the back end of his career, and the first domino to fall is his full-time move to first base. And just like that, the AL's best catcher is no more. Mauer is still a star at first base, but he's replaced by Kurt Suzuki. That's not an upgrade.
Every pitcher in the Twins rotation is still going to get bombed from time to time. They might not finish dead last in strikeouts in the AL again this year, but they won't finish too much above last.
Ultimately, the Twins just have a long way to go. They were -174 in run differential last year. Even an 100 run improvement makes them just a 73-75 win team.
The Projections
The Fangraphs projected team WAR for the 2014 Twins is 25.3, 14th in the American League. Their 12.9 Batters WAR projection is last in the AL. Their 12.4 Pitchers WAR projection is 14th in the AL. Cool Standings projects the 2014 Twins to win 70 games, a 4 win improvement over last season. Joe Mauer is the Twin with the best 2014 projection with an average WAR projection of 3.2. Ricky Nolasco is the pitcher with the best average projection at 2.8 WAR.
The Twins vs the rest of the AL Central
The AL Central is an above average division this year. The Tigers enter the season with one of the best statistical profiles of any team. The Royals and Indians are above average opponents with some downside potential. The Twins should be improved, and have the consensus best farm system, which should help avoid a repeat of the end of last year when they were running a sub-MLB lineup out. The White Sox are more volatile this year than last, and will have some upside to go with the worst downside in MLB.
LiveBall Sports Projection for the 2014 Minnesota Twins
The projections are really down on the Twins this year, but (spoiler alert) I'm going to go aggressively against the numbers on most of the AL Central teams this year. The numbers view the Twins as a terrible team, and last year they were a terrible team. But on the offensive end, the Twins aren't as inept as the numbers are making them out to be.
The Twins haven't made it by any stretch, but I'm going to pick them to approach .500 this year, and steal a bunch of wins that people are giving the Indians and Tigers. We'll go 78-84 for Minnesota this year, and I think they'll be over .500 at some point after the all-star break. Not all of that is one year improvement, but stripping out some factors (and players) who doomed the Twins last year should help in the long run.
American League Two-a-Days: Houston Astros
LiveBall Sports previews the American League this week.
Team Synopsis: Houston Astros
2013 record: 51-111
2013 runs scored: 610
2013 runs against: 848
2013 pythag. record: 57-105
The Astros outscored the White Sox last season and were in the ballpark with the Mariners, but no team was in the ballpark of 848 runs against in either league. That's a sign of the run environment that we're in right now that the Astros were more than two standard deviations below the mean in terms of run prevention. Remember six 6 years ago when the Detroit Tigers offense was supposed to score 1,000 runs?
Who is having a good spring?
OF Marc Krauss might be turning into something here. His 17 total bases lead every spring training hitter, and he plays in Florida for spring training. Most of the offensive leaders are playing in the Cactus league, because the run environment there is so extreme. RHP Jerome Williams, picked up from the Angels in the offseason, has 6 strikeouts in 4 2/3 innings to lead the staff.
Reasons to be optimistic about the 2014 Astros
They pick first in the 2014 first-year player draft. Even despite this fact, when you hear pundits talking about who Houston is going to take with the first pick, they're likely talking about the Texans. 2013 – not the best sports year in Texas.
The Astros lost their last 15 games in 2013. That's the longest active streak for a Houston professional team, besting the Texans who lost their final 14 games in 2013.
Reasons to be realistic about the 2014 Astros
For a lot of reasons, this roster is getting over-projected. They are still the weakest roster in the AL, and only the White Sox have more downside potential on the field than the Astros. There has been a clear upgrade in veteran talent from last season, but the difference is that in 2013, the only qualifications the veterans had to be a member of the Astros was to 1) know and understand you'd have a limited role on an awful team, and 2) have some trade value, potentially. Or be Rick Ankiel, I guess.
Scott Feldman, Jerome Williams, and Dexter Fowler are useful veteran pieces, but Erik Bedard and Jose Veras were not exactly chopped liver. The Astros have so much ground to make up just to get to the 60 win plateau. They're capable of getting there, in fact, 70 is about the ceiling for this team, but they can't get there without a reasonable amount of development from young talent. And that's where 2013 was truly a lost year for the Astros, is that the under-25 brigade at the MLB level combined for about 2-WAR on the players side. Combined. That's whole team. And charitably, might I add, because if you include the 25-year olds in that analysis, the Astros fall below replacement level in 2013.
Jimmy Paredes and Brandon Laird will help the Omaha Storm Chasers defend the AAA-Pacific Coast League Title in 2014. Which means they'll be playing for a better team than the 2013 Astros.
The Projections
The Fangraphs projected team WAR for the 2014 Astros is 21.6, last in the American League. Their 14.5 Batters WAR projection is 13th in the AL. Their 7.1 Pitchers WAR projection is last in the AL. Cool Standings projects the 2014 Astros to win 67 games, a 16 win improvement over last season. Jason Castro is the Astro with the best 2014 projection with an average WAR projection of 3.2. Scott Feldman is the pitcher with the best average projection at 2.0 WAR.
The Astros vs the rest of the AL West
The AL West is a below average division, and the weakest of the AL divisions in 2014. This despite having four above average teams and an "improved" Astros team. This is the case because no teams in the AL West are a lock to win 90 games. According to Cool Standings, the division winner is projected to win 86 games. It's a true four team race in 2014. The Astros will not participate.
LiveBall Sports Projection for the 2014 Houston Astros
Given how bad the pitching is, particularly in the bullpen, every game the Astros win is going to feel like an aberration. There's absolutely a chance here that Houston could give up more than 848 runs this year. The rotation was actually better on paper heading into last season, before Phil Humber was the worst player in baseball the first half of the season. The bullpen was definitely better on paper before they traded everyone in it (by design). Even the defense was probably better on paper at this time last year, although they've improved in center field with the Fowler acquisition.
The offense is an area where you can see progress with this organization. I touched on Marc Krauss' torrid spring, but when you put Fowler and a full season of L.J. Hoes back there (acquired from Baltimore in the Bud Norris deal) with Krauss, return Castro, Matt Dominguez, Chris Carter, and Jose Altuve, the Astros offense is…well, I don't know if good is the right term. But it looks like a major league starting nine. And that's probably enough to break through the 100 loss barrier. 64-98 is the prediction. And that will be the worst in baseball.
Because if the Astros become the first team to lose 100 games four consecutive years, it may be time to evaluate the operation in greater context. Or even worse: watch the Texans.
American League Two-a-Days: Tampa Bay Rays
LiveBall Sports previews the American League this week.
Team Synopsis: Tampa Bay Rays
2013 record: 92-71
2013 runs scored: 700
2013 runs against: 646
2013 pythag. record: 87-75
The 2013 Rays were a pretty balanced team, scoring and preventing runs at an above average rate. Talent-wise, they probably should have missed the playoffs, but Manager Joe Maddon found an extra five wins on their schedule and Tampa Bay won a play-in game against the Texas Rangers to make the postseason. They then went to Cleveland and won there in the wild card round, before dropping 3 of 4 to the eventual champion, Boston.
Thanks to the miraculous run Tampa made in 2011, this was not the most improbable playoff season in recent Rays history, but it's clear that the Carl Crawford/James Shields/Evan Longoria Rays are a team of the past.
Who is having a good spring?
Catcher Jose Molina, expected to split the short end of a timeshare with Ryan Hanigan, has reached base 4 of 9 times this spring to date. SS Yunel Escobar, OF Matt Joyce, and OF David DeJesus are crushing the ball. OF Kevin Kiermaier has seven total bases and a stolen bag as he attempts to make the team as a defensive ace. RHP Alex Cobb hasn't given up a run in two starts. And in the "small sample optimism is all we have" division, left handed former top prospect Mike Montgomery has allowed two baserunners in three spring innings.
Reasons to be optimistic about the 2014 Rays
The Rays aren't the team you worry about this time of year. A very good team was able to make some really minor upgrades in the offseason. They retained DeJesus on a two year extension, they re-signed James Loney, they acquired Hanigan from the Reds, and everyone else was under team control anyway. The Rays opted against dealing ace LHP David Price, with no deals to their liking out there. Joe Maddon has more information to use this season. He has RF Wil Myers for a full season. The young offensive talent is a year older. 87 wins seems like the floor for this organization.
Reasons to be realistic about the 2014 Rays
The young offensive talent is a year closer to free agency, and some urgency to sell off some of it for payroll flexibility will be present throughout the season, particularly if/when the team is struggling. The Rays do not have a sustainable competitive advantage over other teams in the American League. Everything the Rays do that makes them successful is methodology that every other team in the AL has access to if they ever want to enjoy the kind of success Tampa does. If this were the NFL, people would have coined the "Rays way" and started to steal their trade secrets five years ago.
RHP Jeremy Hellickson struggled greatly last season and is out indefinitely with an elbow tear. The back end of the Rays' pitching rotation is not very good. Price, Cobb, and Chris Archer are an excellent front three, but Matt Moore is still trying to take a step past a guy who is really just a no. 4 starter, and the fifth spot could go to Jake Odorizzi, acquired from Kansas City in the trade that swapped Shields and Myers. Jeff Niemann should be back from Tommy John surgery around midseason. These concerns are mitigated somewhat by the fact that Tampa does a good job developing young pitchers. It's clear how the Rays plan to fix the back end of their rotation: they have an asking price on Price that essentially replaces Price with a younger top-line SP (Taijuan Walker of the Mariners was their top target) and a second, ML-ready arm for the middle of the rotation. The Rays are in trouble if no one meets that asking price in the next 365 days. They'll have to drop it.
Myers is, by himself, a perfectly adequate return for James Shields, and the Rays also managed to get salary relief (from the Royals!) in the big trade of last offseason, but it's not clear what kind of value Odorizzi, Montgomery, or Patrick Leonard will bring to Tampa this season. If Odorizzi is below replacement level as a starting pitcher, then the deal from Tampa's perspective didn't return as much as it could have.
The Projections
The Fangraphs projected team WAR for the 2014 Rays is 41.0, 4th in the American League. Their 25.8 Batters WAR projection is 2nd in the AL. Their 15.2 Pitchers WAR projection is 7th in the AL. Cool Standings projects the 2014 Rays to win 85 games, a 7 win decline from last season. Evan Longoria is the Ray with the best 2014 projection with an average WAR projection of 6.1. David Price is the pitcher with the best average projection at 4.5 WAR.
The Rays vs the rest of the AL East
The AL East is baseball's strongest division in 2014. The Rays and Red Sox are top seven teams, in the elite class of baseball teams, and the Yankees and Blue Jays are anticipated to be top-half teams. The Orioles are probably the best team expected to finish in fifth this season. The Blue Jays are a longshot contender, but the Red Sox and the Rays are the class of the AL East this year.
LiveBall Sports Projection for the 2014 Tampa Bay Rays
It seems like the Rays have become a 90 win machine, and with that in mind, a team that looks a bit better than it did one year ago should be a fairly conservative choice to go 90-72 again, for a second place finish in the AL East, and probably a wild card. The longer-term projection for the Rays suggests that this is a fairly pivotal year for the franchise. Teams are going to start catching up to their defensive methodology and shifting as more information becomes available, and though the Rays have been pioneers in this regard, it is going to be tough for any team to consistently outperform it's periphrials by as much as the Rays do on an annual basis.
Tampa also hasn't drafted and developed talent nearly as well as they get credit for. They're maxed out in terms of payroll, and from a more human perspective, guys like GM Andrew Friedman and Joe Maddon are going to move on eventually. The constraints on the Rays organization are likely to accelerate that. Other teams throwing crazy money at them might make it inevitable. On some level, it's incredibly impressive that the Rays have kept their core group together for this long.
But it needs to be said that the Rays between 2008-2010 were a more talented team in a conventional sense. 2014 should be the pinnacle year of the Rays' second wave of talent, but this team isn't quite the Dodgers, Nationals, Cardinals, or Red Sox in terms of top to bottom organizational strength. They are in the next tier with the Rangers, Tigers, Braves, and A's. If the Rays win just 90 games, that will be a job well done, but not done quite as well as some would have hoped.
American League Two-a-Days: Seattle Mariners
LiveBall Sports previews the American League this week.
Team Synopsis: Seattle Mariners
2013 record: 71-91
2013 runs scored: 624
2013 runs against: 754
2013 pythag. record: 67-95
The Mariners underachieved relative expectations in 2013, and were labeled a dysfunctional organization in the process. They did little to change that label this offseason, but did the next best thing, which is that they spent a crap ton of money on veteran players. Quietly, the Mariners have a lot of talent in camp, but after years of underachieving, it's on them to convince the world that this year will be different.
Who is having a good spring?
The Mariners finished second in the Cactus League last year, and are in first place on the morning of March 9th with a 7-3 record. Standouts include OF Dustin Ackley, OF Michael Saunders, C Mike Zunino, 1B Justin Smoak, 2B Robinson Cano, 1B Jesus Montero, RHP Erasmo Ramirez, and LHP James Paxton. Or basically, everyone the Mariners will rely on in 2014.
Reasons to be optimistic about the 2014 Mariners
This is the team that paid the $240 million to sign Robinson Cano. But beyond that…
The team's young pitching has arrived at the majors, and early returns last September were excellent. The Mariners' rotation could be excellent this year. Very quietly last season, the Mariners lineup saw a power surge. Although this lineup is still going to struggle to get on base consistently, it's more than just Robinson Cano and the eight scrubs. Smoak had a break out year last year, and Ackley and Saunders are at the ages where they'll produce if they are capable. Brad Miller is one of the game's top young shortstops. 3B Kyle Seager is one of the best young players in the game at any position. There's not a lot of risk for inexperience-related struggles in the lineup: guys who don't produce are going to lose playing time to cheaply acquired veterans.
The front of the rotation with Felix Hernandez and Hisachi Iwakuma is as good as any in baseball, including Detroit's, and the prospects like Ramirez, Paxton, and Taijuan Walker at the back end are legit and can get major league hitters out today.
Reasons to be realistic about the 2014 Mariners
For a team dominating spring training on March 9th, the Mariners are a banged up bunch. Walker and Iwakuma are inactive right now with (relatively minor) injuries. Starting OF Franklin Gutierrez is going to miss the entire 2014 season as will fireballing reliever Stephen Pryor. Defensively, the Mariners better resemble the Washington Generals than the Harlem Globetrotters. A starting projected outfield of CF Abraham Almonte, LF Ackley, and RF Saunders could look good defensively, but there is a good shot Almonte will begin in the minors in deference to Logan Morrison (Almonte is not established as a ML hitter and is struggling this spring).
The Mariners have a questionable roster construction that includes a lot of different 1B types. They have Smoak, Morrison, Corey Hart, and Montero, all of whom either can't play anywhere but first base, or won't do it well. They are only allowed one DH. Meanwhile, reserve infielder and last year's 2B Nick Franklin is blocked by Cano, and could be ticketed for AAA Tacoma to start the season. The bench is going to be tough to construct, and won't add any value to the lineup. Robinson Cano thinks the team needs another bat or two in the lineup.
This is the team that paid $240 million for Robinson Cano.
The Projections
The Fangraphs projected team WAR for the 2014 Mariners is 35.8, 11th in the American League. Their 19.2 Batters WAR projection is 12th in the AL. Their 16.6 Pitchers WAR projection is 5th in the AL. Cool Standings projects the 2014 Mariners to win 84 games, a 13 win improvement over last season. Felix Hernandez is the Mariner with the best 2014 projection with an average WAR projection of 5.7. Robinson Cano is the position player with the best average projection at 4.7 WAR.
The Mariners vs the rest of the AL West
The AL West is a below average division, and the weakest of the AL divisions in 2014. This despite having four above average teams and an improved Astros team. This is the case because no teams in the AL West are a lock to win 90 games. According to Cool Standings, the division winner is projected to win 86 games. It's a true four team race in 2014.
LiveBall Sports Projection for the 2014 Seattle Mariners
The Mariners walk a very thin line between a total clown show and a legitimate playoff contender. Based purely on talent as well as performance in the early spring, this Mariners roster should be pretty good and has the potential to improve considerably at the deadline. However, if you underachieve four consecutive years like Seattle has, you don't earn any benefit of the doubt. Superficially, this is the best team Seattle has produced in years, but their organizational issues are problematic at the most fundamental level. The LiveBall official prediction on the Mariners is optimistic: 87-75, but understands that the inverse of such a record is both very possible, and something the organization would try to spin as an improvement.


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Virginia Democrats raised questions about Gov. Bob McDonnell's approach to the state spending plan, during a taped response to his first address to a joint session of the legislature.
After the jump, you can find the full text of the response, delivered by Senate Majority Leader Dick Saslaw (D-Fairfax) and state Sen. Mamie Locke (D-Hampton).
"Good evening, I am Dick Saslaw, Virginia State Senate Majority Leader
"And I am Mamie Locke, Virginia State Senator from Hampton.
"Thank you for your time this evening, and for the opportunity to tell you how Democrats view the state of our Commonwealth. We would first like to join all Virginians in commemorating today as Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. Dr. King dedicated his life to delivering the "more perfect union" our founders promised, and his words and deeds still inspire today.
"Earlier you heard from our new Governor, Bob McDonnell. We congratulate Governor McDonnell on his election and look forward to working with him to address the challenges facing Virginia. We will work with the Governor to increase employment opportunities, ensure the best education possible for our children, and find solutions to our transportation crisis. We also pledge to stand firm when we believe the best interests of the state are being compromised. We will, at all times, conduct ourselves in a manner that makes Virginians proud.
"Our two previous Democratic Governors, Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, worked to position the Commonwealth for sustained success. Our combined efforts have earned Virginia the title of "Best State for Business"; our investments in early childhood education made Virginia the state where a child is most likely to have a successful life and our adherence to Virginia's traditionally sound budgeting and fiscal principles earned us the title of "Best Managed State." We are extremely proud to have contributed to these tremendous achievements.
CHALLENGES"We cannot rest on our laurels when so many Virginia families and businesses are struggling. Our transportation program remains grossly underfunded. Without adequate state funding for our K-12 schools and our world class colleges and universities, higher education gets further out of reach for all Virginians. This limits our ability to compete in the global economy. We also face new challenges brought on by the worldwide economic slowdown that began nearly three years ago. An unacceptable number of Virginians are out of work which is why creating and retaining jobs in all parts of the Commonwealth remains our top priority.
"Virginia has certainly felt the effects of the current recession. Since 2007 we have cut $7 billion in spending from the state's budget without increasing taxes. Unlike the Federal government we must balance our budget annually. Strategic cuts have been made to minimize the impact on critical state services. Now we have reached the point where additional cuts can and will cause the loss of both jobs and services.
"One month ago, Governor Kaine proposed a balanced budget that includes significant budget cuts. Governor McDonnell has declared the entire plan dead on arrival. Please understand what that declaration means. By rejecting Kaine's plan, Governor McDonnell is forcing an additional $2 billion in cuts. Cuts will now total $4.3 billion instead of $2.3 billion. McDonnell's cuts will mean the elimination of more critical services and thousands of layoffs to public employees, including our teachers and public safety professionals. We await Governor McDonnell's detailed plan on how he would make his additional $2 billion in cuts."And now, I'd like to introduce again, Senator Mamie Locke.
"Thank you Senator Saslaw. I'd like to tell you a little more about the priorities of the Virginia Democrats, as well as what you can expect from us, and what we expect from our new Governor.
"We have done all we can to protect funding for K-12 education, but it is no longer possible to place any portion of the budget off limits. Public education remains a top priority for Democrats. We also know that education means jobs. The previously proposed cuts to education will have a significant impact, but Governor McDonnell's course of action will double the pain. Estimates indicate the level of cuts chosen by the Governor could result in 23,000 layoffs in public education across the state. We intend to maintain Virginia's leadership status in public education. We ask Governor McDonnell to join us in opposing permanent cuts to our public schools and far reaching job losses that will follow.
"Virginia must find a way to ensure an adequate and sustainable transportation program. Two of our most economically vibrant regions, Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, are in danger of being choked off by crippling congestion. We are at a competitive disadvantage by pitching a sub-par transportation network to potential employers. There are also serious public safety concerns. Hampton Roads lacks the capacity to evacuate hundreds of thousands of people if threatened by a hurricane, and nearly 2,000 bridges across the Commonwealth are in need of repair or replacement.
"The Senate has shown that we are serious about fixing our transportation problems. One thing we will not do is build roads on the backs of school children. We look forward to working with Governor McDonnell as he leads his fellow Republicans to address this problem that should have been fixed long ago.
"Finally, ensuring public safety is an irrefutable responsibility of government and we have the utmost respect for the men and women that put themselves in harm's way every day to maintain our safety and security. Recognizing again that all portions of the budget will bear some burden, we will work to prevent disproportional and potentially crippling cuts to public safety programs. Our public safety officials, including sheriffs, sheriff's deputies, local and state law enforcement officers, deserve more than our respect, they deserve our support.
"Governor McDonnell chose as his inauguration theme, "A Commonwealth of Opportunity," and we will work with him, as well as our Republican and Democratic colleagues to make sure that Virginia is a place of limitless opportunity. We ask Governor McDonnell to join us as we create a Commonwealth of Prosperity that remains the best state for business and a magnet for economic development. We ask him to join us as we create a Commonwealth of Innovation where our limited resources are used in creative ways that deliver results for all Virginians. And we ask him to make ours a Commonwealth of Compassion where, even in challenging times, we care for the most vulnerable among us— the young, the old, and the ill.
"We all know Virginia faces significant challenges, but in our 400 year history we have faced worse and come out stronger. As we work through this challenging legislative session, we will never forget what it means to be a Virginia Democrat. A Virginia Democrat focuses on results, not process, places pragmatism above partisanship, and values reality above ideology.
"We are not in Richmond for personal achievement, nor to embark on ideological crusades, nor go to battle against perceived foes. You have sent us here with an expectation that we will maintain the progress made in recent years, and continue to move the Commonwealth forward even in difficult times, and that is what we will do.
"Thank you again for letting us share our perspective with you. Good night."


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This little boy is my grandson. He is my inspiration and motivation. He is why I have my direct selling business. One of the biggest reasons. He is also why I am so grateful this Thanksgiving season here in the United States.
I have much to be grateful for and Thanksgiving in America is the traditional time to bring to mind those things in your life for which you are grateful and thankful.
My family tops my list for what I am thankful for. My husband, my daughters and their husbands and my grandson. My brothers and their wives and all my nieces and nephews and their children. Aunts, Uncles and cousins. I remember my parents and grandparents at this time of year and am thankful for all the things they taught me. I remember my sister and miss her.
Health tops my list. Like most people in this world, I live with some health issues and I am thankful to have understanding doctors, medications that work. I'm extremely grateful that my sister-in-law introduced me to MonaVie. This juice has changed my life and increased my overall wellness.
I'm grateful to live in a time of technology so that I can reach out into the world in a way not dreamed of when I was a child…at least not by me. I can remember when dad bought our first color televsion set and I could watch the original Star Trek series in color. My grandparents loved The Lawrence Welk Show and my parents had all six of us watching Bonanza every Sunday evening. Now I can sit on the sofa with my laptop and earphones and watch the latest episode of Bones any time I choose.
Understanding that the internet is a global platform and that I have readers from around the world, I do, however, want to say that I am grateful to live in America, in California. I love my country and my state and my community. Having said that, there are many places on this globe that I would love to visit. Readers, where do you live? What would you recommend to a tourist visiting your country, your region, your community?
I'm grateful I still have many more years to pursue my dreams and goals. I'm committed to sharing the MonaVie juice and the MonaVie income opportunity with anyone who has the ears to hear and desires more health in their lives both physically and financially. I'm committed to providing a legacy for my grandson. I'm grateful that a direct selling income opportunity is an open one- regardless of race, religion, gender or age or current economic situation, you can have a chance with direct selling.
And today, I'm even grateful for the rain.
To all who share in this Thanksgiving Holiday I wish a safe, warm time of fellowship and enjoyment. For all who live in countries where tomorrow is not a holiday, I wish a day of remembering those things for which you are grateful.
"The Pilgrims made seven times more graves than huts. No Americans have been more impoverished, than these who, nevertheless, set aside a day of thanksgiving." – H. U. Westermayer
"We can only be said to be alive in those moments when our hearts are conscious of our treasures." – Thornton Wilder
Filed under: Attitude, Direct Selling, Home-based Business, Network Marketing | Tagged: Bonanza, Bones, business, Direct Selling, gratitude, income opportunity, Lawrence Welk, MonaVie, network marketing, Pilgrims, Star Trek, thanksgiving |


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Dear Friends,
I remember during my teen years, and into college, listening to comedy albums. (Yes, I am dating myself.) One of my favorite comedy "bits" was George Carlin talking about "stuff" and how we had too much stuff and the extraordinary things we do to acquire more stuff and then to maintain, store, and keep our stuff safe. We are full of stuff. Yet, while we are full, does that mean we are satisfied? If we say that "yes" we are satisfied, then why do we keep obtaining more? Why do we still hunger for more?
Jesus realizes the hungers in our lives. We hunger for food, for attention, for power, for money, for possessions, and yet, rather than sate our appetites, these often do not bring us satisfaction. In the midst of our hungering, Jesus says something extraordinary: I AM the bread of life. But unlike ordinary bread, that we can eat until we are full, but in a few hours are hungry again; Jesus offers us something, that when we take into our lives, we need never be hungry again. We will reflect more on this in worship this Sunday.
I look forward to worshiping with you this Sunday. Please continue to pray for the mission of Buckhall UMC: to make disciples of Jesus Christ, or as we learned in our recent planning session, we are "disciples making disciples."
Yours in Christ,
PS – How are you observing this season of Lent? How are you seeking to draw closer to Jesus Christ?


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Startling times in the Smileyrunner camp, and I almost swoon at the thought of writing it, but... yesterday I went for a run.
Now I know that's what you expect in what is ostensibly a running blog, but this was special. It was the first run I've had since the swine flu/chest infection/rib muscle tear triumvirate comprehensively knackered up my 'training' before Christmas. For the record, it was my favourite little 2.7 mile River Loop, in a leisurely 29 minutes, and it felt absolutely great to be back out on the frozen fields.
I appreciate that this is nothing compared to what you lot are up to, with your heroic mileages, silly hills, reps, gyms and skittering about the Lakeland tops on pointy things (you all know who you are, and well done everyone), but it's a start... and I have spent the last three weeks trekking in Patagonia.
The full details will appear in another blog (I'm sure I could blog ad nauseam about how fantastic it was) but I've got to download the photos first. So I must ask you to wait.
D'you know, I think I'll go out for another run tomorrow. It can get a bit addictive can't it.
Monday, 8 February 2010
4 comments:
steady on there..think you should pop a rest day in firstReplyDelete
Greetings Hayfella, and good to see you back blogging ABOUT RUNNING. Wish I could do the same! But I'm working on it. Will hopefully see you around later this year.ReplyDelete
Yay! Welcome back Hayfella. I've missed your sunny running posts and can't wait to see the pics of you trip - it feels like you've been gone absolutely ages. Great to hear you're back to it. RB.ReplyDelete
brilliant news, welcome back! can't wait for your holiday snaps, proper hills :)ReplyDelete
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You know that Staples commercial where the parent is shopping for school supplies while the Christmas tune plays merrily in the background, "It's the most wonderful time of the year ...."? Well, that's not me this year.
This is probably the very first year I was not ready to send my children back to school. We were busy all summer long with sports and camps that we never did really get a vacation together. We were up early with a schedule all but the last two weeks of summer. Did my kids squabble? Yes. Did they complain of boredom? Yes. Did they miss friends and routine? Yes. But we had such a great time together all summer long, none of us wanted to return to the "grind."
We longed for routine, friendships, the more fun parts of the school year, but not the homework, backpacks, locker combinations, and lunch packing. We had enjoyed practices and games that were the main focus of the day instead of squeezed into the week.
This school year, my prayer for our family is to find balance. We need the routine of the school year coupled with the downtime of summer. When we work, we will focus and commit. When we play, we will really play. You cannot play with a smartphone in your hand, checking email. Our adventures do not need to be instantly uploaded via Instagram.
What does "balance" mean to you and your family?


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Having trouble in life and/or career?
Think about the following:
- Trouble is like fire in the furnace that removes impurities from gold-your gold.
- Trouble is like a plow to soil being prepared for seed planting-seeds of a great life.
- Trouble is like an inconvenient truth haunting you to move out of what's familiar and comfortable.
- Trouble and pain are relatives, and they both are megaphones for a deaf world (thanks to C.S. Lewis for that analogy).
- Trouble is like a laser in a master surgeon's hands that focuses exactly where the need is.
- Trouble should move you to ask for help.
- Trouble is like the rainstorm that precedes the sun and rainbow.