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Delft Environment Initiative
Japan and the Next Step for Disaster Preparedness
Modern technology saved thousands of lives Friday. Now we need to improve care for urban survivors.
This article by Julian Hunt and Simon Day appeared in the Wall Street Journal on Monday, March 14, 2011. Lord Hunt is visiting professor at Delft University of Technology and former director-general of the UK Met Office. Mr. Day is a researcher at the Aon Benfield Hazard Research Centre at University College London.
The 8.9 magnitude earthquake that struck Japan on Friday is the largest to hit the country in recorded history. It has numerous similarities, in both type and scale, to the 8.5 magnitude quake which struck Japan in 1896. Around 27,000 people are estimated to have been killed by that quake and the subsequent tsunami, which was some 25 meters high. In this case, the death toll could far exceed 1,000, most of those victims to the tsunami.
While that toll is tragically high, it is worth noting the scientific, technological and institutional developments that will have kept Friday's earthquake and tsunami from claiming as many victims as previous disasters did. We now have a better understanding of the linkage between geophysical processes and detection technology, and have improved the education of, and communication to, at-risk communities.
All this is an undeniable mercy in allowing so many more people to survive such disasters than would have been possible before. But it also poses a new challenge for policy makers, one that came into focus over the weekend in Japan and that ought to be on the minds of disaster planners elsewhere: how best to care for hundreds of thousands, or even millions, of survivors who are dislocated by a severe natural disaster.
Japan shows how complex this question has become. Providing drinking water, food and shelter to those affected has become a major logistical challenge. Hundreds of thousands of Tokyo residents who live miles away from their houses and depend on modern urban transportation systems to get home each evening found themselves stuck in office buildings ill equipped to handle them.
This is a significant consequence of modern urbanization. The proportion of the world's population living in urban areas is expected to reach between 60% and 70% later this century, from around 50% now. Japan is the epitome of this: Only 5% of the population works in agriculture (a proxy for rural residence), and around 80 million of Japan's 127 million people are concentrated on the Pacific shore of Honshu island—the region that includes Tokyo.
Simultaneously, there is a movement toward very large cities with populations exceeding one million. In 1950, there were only 83 cities in the world of such a size, whereas this number had risen to 468 by 2007. There are now some 21 "mega cities" of greater than 10 million inhabitants—Tokyo is one of those.
The high concentration of people per square meter in urban areas, anywhere from 100 to 1,000 times the global average, can make populations more vulnerable to extreme natural hazards ranging from earthquakes to heat waves and floods. Even a localized disaster in a city can affect exponentially more people than a disaster hitting a similar land area in the countryside; the effect is magnified further for a region-wide disaster such as Friday's earthquake.
The growing size of many urban areas also means that people sometimes cannot physically escape in the event of extreme hazards, as recent hurricanes and tsunamis in the United States and Indonesia have shown. Where attempts have been made to evacuate multi-million populations, lives have sometimes been lost in the transport systems as they seized up.
This means policy makers and architects face the question of how to provide refuge for those people during and after a disaster, and how those refuges should be integrated into the design of structures. The problem is much more difficult than simply building a bunker in the basement. Refuges have different roles for different types of disaster. For tsunamis, a shelter is usually only needed for a short period, as with high winds, tropical cyclones and landslides. For longer lasting disasters, such as volcanic eruptions, people have longer warning, and behave differently (for instance, bringing goods and even animals to the shelters in rural areas).
Regulators and engineers are only starting to grapple with this kind of question, but already some points are clear. Increasingly, communities in urban areas will have to understand and be prepared for risks of hazards and need to be involved in addressing them, in partnership with local and national government. This will involve training communities to deal with a range of potential natural disasters relevant to their local areas.
Structural engineers, planners and social scientists will also need to consider more urgently the design of appropriate shelters in urban and also in rural areas (for instance, parks and open areas may also act as refuges). This will require intensive study and resources to ensure good design and effectiveness. Careful study of unfolding events in Japan could help this effort over the long run.
The complexity of policies that are needed for dealing with these issues may be hard to envisage, and even harder to carry out. However, change is urgently needed and the longer we wait, the harder it will become to achieve and the more lives that will be lost.
Predicting earthquakes will come sooner than we think
This article by Kees Vuik and Mehfooz Rehman first appeared in The Australian on February 24, 2011.
Kees Vuik is a professor and Mehfooz ur Rehman is a PhD candidate at Delft University of Technology in The Netherlands.
THE 6.3 magnitude earthquake that hit Christchurch is a truly appalling tragedy and it is little wonder that New Zealand's Prime Minister John Key has said that we may be witnessing his country's darkest day.
The country is, of course, no stranger to earthquakes; it experiences more than 14,000 a year, of which only about 20 on average have a magnitude greater than 5.0. However, this week's earthquake, NZ's deadliest disaster in at least 80 years, has already caused an estimated $3 billion in damage and was so forceful it shook 30 million tonnes of ice from NZ's biggest glacier.
While world attention is rightly focusing on the effort to save the lives of those trapped by fallen buildings, some media coverage has so far obscured the fact that the science of earthquake prediction is improving and holds much promise in the next few years. Although this will be of no solace for the people of Christchurch, what this means in practice is that in the not too distant future scientists might be able to provide warnings for at least some similar events, thus helping to minimise loss of life and wider devastation.
Predicting earthquakes was once thought to be impossible owing to the difficulty of calculating the motion of rocky mantle flows. However, thanks to an algorithm created by the Delft University of Technology, we now know that it is possible to model these underground streams.
Much of the early experimentation with the new algorithm has been based around the North Anatolian Fault. This is an active fault that runs along the tectonic boundary between the Eurasian Plate and the Anatolian Plate. It extends across northern Turkey and into the Aegean Sea. The last time there was a severe earthquake along this fault line, at Izmith in Turkey in 1999, 17,000 people were killed.
Our colleagues in Utrecht are applying our algorithm to create a model (consisting of 100 million underground grid points) of the North Anatolian Fault (essentially the underground in Greece and Turkey up to 1000km deep). What this information allows us to ascertain is where the underground stresses are strongest, an often telltale sign of the most dangerous potential earthquake trigger points.
As good as this model is, however, it still needs refinement. This is because the link between earthquakes and underground flows is complex and hard to compute. In practice, calculating such flows means constructing very complex mathematical systems made up of millions of pressure and velocity values at all of the underground grid points.
This has given rise to the need to scale up the solution time linearly, a feat that researchers had previously found too difficult. While this scaling up has been achieved, thus making the model more accurate and comprehensive, the project's complexity has been increased considerably.
Nevertheless, after finishing our work on the North Anatolian Fault, Delft and Utrecht universities intend to try to model the tectonics of the entire earth, a truly ambitious project that will involve perhaps one billion grid points (what we call our fine grid).
To make the computations for these one billion points will require surmounting yet another big hurdle, the "parallel computing" problem.
That is, increasing the number of computers in a system generally means that they work less efficiently.
However, the Utrecht team has already been working with a test sample of 500 computers and we believe we have mitigated this problem with our algorithm.
Despite this breakthrough, computing the one billion parts of the fine grid is a long-term program and, to push forward in the meantime, we are also working on a technique called coarse grid acceleration.
Our coarse grid uses only a small number of sample points in all of the earth's various strata, thus allowing us to obtain fast, accurate solutions for all of these sample points, leading to considerable savings in computer time.
Finally, we also plan to implement the algorithm on video cards that can speed up the computation by a factor of 100 or more.
While much more hard work and innovation lie ahead, this new frontier of seismology is therefore genuinely path-breaking and already achieving exciting results. However, as the Christchurch earthquake has painfully reminded us, true success will be achieved only when we reach the stage at which human lives are saved by applying our research in practice.
Helping Farmers Use Water Better
Satellite Readings Offer New Ways to Identify the Best Irrigation Practices
BY KATE ROSS, The International Herald Tribune, November 29, 2010
A new technology, using sensors on satellites, could help to establish standards for the amount of water that farmers need to irrigate their crops, and help to optimize the use of that water, an increasingly scarce resource.
See the full text of the article on: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/29/business/energy-environment/29iht-rbogwater.html?_r=2&src=busln
Lord Hunt: China needs to wean itself off Old King Coal
This article by Sir Julian Hunt first appeared in The New Zealand Herald on December 1st 2010. Lord Hunt is former director-general of the UK Met Office, now a visiting professor at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands.
The Cancun climate change summit is taking place in the context of the summer's extraordinary floods in Asia and record high average temperatures over the whole world (with drought in other parts of Asia and southern Africa).
Moreover, with the snows melting last year on the Andes, as on high mountains everywhere, the Amazon had record-high and record-low levels.
While the "urgency to act" is thus growing in some quarters, the prospects for a comprehensive deal in Mexico are slim.
The central problem is that there remains slow progress and uneven elite and popular support in many countries for the United Nations objective of achieving within the next 20 to 30 years the necessary reductions in overall emissions of greenhouse gases.
At the Cancun preparatory meeting in Tianjin in October, little progress was apparently made amid widely reported public disagreements between the United States and China. With Washington accusing Beijing of reneging on its commitments to transparency under last year's Copenhagen Accord, China asserted that the US was not reducing its greenhouse gases.
While even a significant US-China rapprochement will probably not be enough to secure a comprehensive deal at Cancun, such a development would undoubtedly increase the prospects for a new agreement next year and beyond. But, what are the chances of Beijing and Washington moving closer in the months to come?
To answer this question, it is imperative to understand the Chinese perspective on climate change, especially as the country is now the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world. While there has been major discussion in recent years about US climate change policy, much less attention has focused on that of China and the reasons why it views the problems of curbing global warming differently from the West.
For instance, in discussions in the West about how to avoid dangerous climate change, two numbers are especially prominent – 450 parts per million and 2C. These are, respectively, the upper "safe" concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and the upper "safe" limit of average global temperature increase. The fear is that if we exceed either, the climate will pass an irreversible tipping point.
In my most recent visits to China, including last month, I have heard some very different numbers being debated.
China is absolutely committed to political stability and that stability depends on economic growth. Over the next 40 years, it forecasts that its gross domestic product will increase by a factor of six. The driving force of this enormous growth will be fossil fuels, in particular coal.
China's stated policy is to increase the total output of its coal-fired electricity generation while improving efficiency. This is its only significant target in relation to energy and climate change.
China, in other words, is not committed to limiting emissions so as not to exceed any particular target for the global CO2 concentration.
This is not to say, however, that China does not regard the climate change issue seriously. Legislation will soon also be introduced to make compulsory the reductions in emissions per unit of energy by up to 40 per cent and also to expand low carbon supplies by up to 15 per cent of the total, including solar, wind, hydro and nuclear fission.
Moreover, authorities are already encouraging industries to reduce emissions by using carbon trading at five regional centres. Beijing is also considering a mandatory carbon-trading scheme as part of its 12th five-year plan, to be published next year.
Despite these efforts, the country's booming overall emissions will contribute significantly to atmospheric CO2. Indeed, this overall picture is consistent with estimates last year by the Beijing Climate Centre that by 2050 total Chinese greenhouse gas emissions may be more than double the current levels.
Climate models indicate that this continued growth in emissions will lead to atmospheric concentrations of the gases equivalent to about 600ppm and global land temperatures in excess of 3C-4C by 2100. These are staggering numbers compared with those being discussed in the West. The key question that arises is whether there is anything the rest of the world can do to avoid the risk of dangerous climate change that these Chinese numbers imply?
I believe there are reasons to be hopeful. The main way that China can limit its emissions will be to improve the efficiency of its coal-fired power stations, adopt carbon capture and storage, and expand nuclear power. Developed countries, including the US, can encourage and facilitate this transition by providing China with substantial technological assistance. But first, Western nations must commit to making deep cuts in their own emissions – in the order of at least 80 per cent – before 2050, conditional on China doing so after 2050 as its energy efficiency, renewable and nuclear programmes become effective.
As ambitious as it may seem, an international agreement along these lines next year or beyond is a credible goal (although it would most likely need to be facilitated outside of the UN process), for at least two reasons.
Firstly, because China has a long-term financial interest in collaborating with the West. And secondly because – as I have seen in meteorology and in plasma physics – China has a good track record in delivering on advanced technology projects and sticking to international agreements.
For those, like myself, who believe that global warming is the greatest danger to humanity in the 21st century, it is to be hoped that all countries will show the ambition and imagination needed to move towards a comprehensive and effective deal in Mexico.
With a growing urgency to act, we simply cannot afford to see the shambles of Copenhagen repeated in Cancun.
Summit push
This article was first published in the South China Morning Post on November 29th 2010 by Julian Hunt. Lord Hunt is vice-president of Globe (Global Legislators for a Balanced Environment), visiting professor at Delft University of Technology, and former director general of the UK Met Office
The range of views on climate change offers some grounds for collaboration, if not a deal at Cancun
In advance of the UN climate summit in Cancun, which begins today, legislators from across the world – from US congressman Bart Gordon to Chinese congressman Wang Guangtao – met in Tianjin this month at Globe International's climate change symposium. Though the prospect of reaching a comprehensive deal in Mexico is being widely talked down, much progress can still be made; there remains substantial room for optimism.
Last year's disappointing and confused Copenhagen conference showed the lack of willingness of major countries to establish any meaningful international agreement to deal with the causes and impact of manmade climate change. This might involve only the developed countries reducing their emissions of greenhouse gases, as in the Kyoto Protocol, or could also involve other countries with major emissions.
Neither of these scenarios seems likely to be achieved at Cancun. It now seems that the meeting might just result in a set of statements by countries about what they are doing individually and in various multilateral arrangements – a disappointing re-run of Copenhagen.
However, it needs to be remembered that text in a communique does not reduce emissions in itself – action on the ground does. In this context, there are reasons to be optimistic about recent legislative activity in developing countries. For instance, the Chinese announced at the Globe symposium that they are studying the feasibility of a comprehensive climate change law.
Moreover, if a comprehensive deal isn't reached at Cancun, the summit still represents a remarkable opportunity for countries to assess the future more realistically, and collaborate on the practical policies that need to be introduced. Cancun offers a stepping stone to secure a truly sustainable global deal next year or beyond.
Under current plans, many industrialising countries will continue to increase their emissions. This is despite the fact that, in most of the major emitting countries, administrative and innovative market mechanisms are offering incentives to industry to use energy more efficiently.
In China, financial rewards for reducing energy use provided by regional governments are leading to substantial improvements in efficiency. These arrangements are evolving into local carbon markets, albeit small-scale and voluntary at this stage. Although the Kyoto Protocol does not apply to the emissions in China and other developing countries, where millions still live in extreme poverty, politicians in these countries nonetheless say that the protocol does provide a policy framework for controlling emissions.
In the United States, the Obama administration is relying on national regulations operated by the Environmental Protection Agency to monitor and limit further emissions from major power plants. As green stimulus measures, such as the investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency, wind down, this work becomes more important.
The US, China and the European Union are also planning to introduce new systems of monitoring greenhouse gas emissions, using remote-sensing and ground-based instrumentation. EU countries have been emphasising low-carbon energy such as wind and nuclear, as well as carbon sequestration, but have not been able to agree on priorities. There is more unanimity in the EU about promoting its policy of carbon trading to motivate industrial efficiency.
Other countries are focusing on preventing the rise of atmospheric greenhouse gases by expanding forestry. This is why some Latin American and EU legislators are considering how natural conservation and preserving biodiversity can be an integral part of climate change policy.
Given this wide range of political, economic and technical approaches to climate change policy, it may be impossible to frame an international agreement that would satisfy all governments, businesses and also civil society groups. However, it should be possible to agree on a range of practical actions to mitigate climate change and deal with its effects on health, business, agriculture and natural disasters.
The rising costs of dealing with these effects, such as coastal defenses, and reducing desertification and urban overheating, mean that preventative actions have to begin now. They must not be delayed until economies grow further, as some influential economists argue.
The legislators at the Globe symposium generally agreed that there are three areas where urgent action is needed most.
First, more information is needed about expected levels of greenhouse gas, global and regional climate risks, and likely impact on countries. Decision-makers need to know more clearly the likely scenarios and reasonable targets. Communities need to be informed so that they can also contribute, as for example farmers do in Mali, by measuring and communicating the changes to local climate and ecology. The best way for improving information exchange is through United Nations agencies.
Second, countries and regions should exchange information about actions they have taken for mitigation and adaptation, as was agreed in principle at Copenhagen. Members of Globe are already exchanging experiences about legislation and its effectiveness in different countries. However, more work is needed to make this a reality, with transfer of know-how to developing countries.
Third, more collaboration is needed in implementing policies. This should build on national, regional or sectoral initiatives, for example in carbon trading, funding adaptation in developing countries, and developing new technologies for global application, such as desalination, plant breeding and genetic engineering of new crops. Also key are social programmes for the millions of people who are likely to be displaced by the effects of desertification, sea-level rise and probably the melting of mountain snows.
For those, such as myself, who believe that global warming is the greatest danger to humanity in the 21st century, it is to be hoped that agreement can be reached in these areas so that we can move nearer towards a comprehensive and effective deal. We cannot afford to see the shambles of Copenhagen repeated in Cancun.
Water in de Lage Landen
HUUB SAVENIJE over het waterbeheer in Nederland en België
Verloopt het waterbeheer in Belgie anders dan in Nederland? Huub Savenije onderzoekt de overeenkomsten en de verschillen.
Huub Savenije is hoogleraar hydrologie en waterhuishouding aan de TU Delft. Dit artikel verscheen op dinsdag 16 november 2010 in De Morgen .
Naar aanleiding van de recente overstromingen wordt er zowel in België als in Nederland weer druk gedebatteerd over het water. Zodra er mensen natte voeten krijgen, ondergelopen kelders of, erger nog, drijvend huisraad in hun woning, is het waterbeheer weer even topprioriteit. Maar als alles weer droog is vergeten we de ellende weer vlug en gaan we weer over tot de orde van de dag. Voor de gemeenteambtenaar en voor de projectontwikkelaar betekent dat: het plannen van stadsuitbreiding, woningbouw, industrieterreinen, nieuwe wegen, parkeerterreinen en rioleringen. Dat is in Nederland en België waarschijnlijk niet anders. Mensen die waarschuwen dat de vergroting van het geplaveide oppervlak en de intensivering van de drainage leidt tot wateroverlast benedenstrooms, zien zich gesteld tegenover de grote belangen die gemoeid gaan met het intensiveren van het landgebruik. Bouwgrond is schaars en duur, en met het verkopen van grond en het bebouwen daarvan is veel geld te verdienen, vooral als de onbebouwde grond relatief goedkoop is. Helaas ligt die goedkope grond vaak daar waar ook het water terecht komt als het hard regent. Als waterbeheerder is tegen deze belangen nauwelijks op te boksen, ook in Nederland niet. De waterbeheerder ziet zich voor steeds grotere veiligheidseisen gesteld terwijl zijn speelruimte afneemt.
Geen extreme buien
Uiteraard is het aantrekkelijk om de recente wateroverlast in het licht van mogelijke klimaatsverandering te zien. Maar dat is niet terecht. Het waren heftige, maar geen extreme buien. Wat veel sterker is veranderd, zijn: ons landgebruik, de inrichting van de publieke ruimte, en de eisen die wij stellen aan het watersysteem. In Nederland is het inmiddels heel normaal dat mensen hun kelder bewonen, daar waar die vroeger alleen gebruikt werden om voorraden koel en donker te bewaren. Huizen en winkels zijn tegenwoordig drempelloos, zodat het water ongehinderd naar binnen kan stromen. Vervolgens hebben we dure vloerbedekking, stopcontacten en elektrische apparaten op voethoogte liggen, zodat de schade direct groot is zodra er water binnenkomt. Daarmee worden er eisen aan het waterbeheer gesteld die vroeger niet bestonden. Dus aan de ene kant wordt het risico groter omdat er meer water van boven naar beneden wordt afgevoerd en aan de andere kant neemt de schade toe omdat we steeds meer gebouwen met waardevolle spullen op kwetsbare plaatsen hebben. Ook dat is in Nederland en in België waarschijnlijk niet anders.
Zijn er dan geen verschillen? Je hoort vaak dat de oorzaak vooral gezocht moet worden in de organisatie van het waterbeheer die veelal versnipperd is over verschillende overheden. De gemeente probeert de nood te lenigen als er wateroverlast is. Als er kelders onderlopen of als er mensen gered moeten worden, dan rukt de brandweer uit. Maar het is vaak dezelfde gemeente die vergunningen heeft afgegeven voor stadsuitbreiding, afwatering of voor het bouwen op riskante plaatsen. Daarom is er een hoger orgaan nodig dat de effecten van deze maatregelen doorrekent en kaders stelt waarbinnen lagere overheden kunnen manoeuvreren. In Nederland zijn er de waterschappen en is er de Rijkswaterstaat die deze gemeenteoverschrijdende belangen in de gaten moeten houden, maar in de praktijk werkt ook dat in Nederland lang niet altijd zoals het moet. De gemeentes trekken meestal aan het langste eind en passen hun plannen hooguit cosmetisch aan.
Geaccidenteerd België
Wat is er dan anders tussen Nederland en België? Ik denk dat louter door het feit dat Nederland zo vlak is, en dat een groot deel van het land beneden zeeniveau ligt, de problemen bij intense regenbuien minder extreem zijn. Zodra er hoogteverschillen zijn, loopt het water naar de laagste plek – en tegenwoordig gaat dat steeds sneller door de intense bebouwing. België is nu eenmaal meer geaccidenteerd dan Nederland en het water concentreert zich dus gemakkelijker in de laagste stukken. Ten tweede is Nederland waarschijnlijk iets beter ingespeeld op dit soort van gebeurtenissen. Omdat grote delen van Nederland onder zeeniveau liggen, zijn de waterschappen dagelijks bezig om de waterpeilen in de sloten en waterlopen te handhaven. Zodra het regent gaan er pompen aan, of het nou veel of minder regent. Het is de routine van alledag die maakt dat er direct handelend wordt opgetreden. Maar wellicht geldt dat evenzeer voor de lagere gebieden van België.
Dit neemt niet weg dat het in Nederland nooit fout gaat. Onlangs nog was er na een heftige regenbui veel wateroverlast in Egmond aan Zee, en deze zomer trad de Oost-Nederlandse Dinkel buiten zijn oevers, met veel schade. In Nederland is er een intensieve maatschappelijke discussie gaande over de hoeveelheid land die wij moeten reserveren om het water de nodige ruimte te geven. Uiteindelijk is het een kwestie van ruimtelijke ordening, waarbij wij zowel ervoor zorgen dat het water voldoende kan worden vastgehouden (in de bodem of op daartoe aangewezen land), als dat we de schade beperken door de laagliggende gebieden beter toe te rusten op eventuele inundaties.
How to achieve energy neutrality in cities
This article by Andy van den Dobbelsteen and Nico Tillie first appeared on Reuters The Great Debate UK on Nov 9, 2010.
Andy van den Dobbelsteen is a Professor of Architecture and Nico Tillie is a PhD candidate at Delft University of Technology. Tillie also works for the City of Rotterdam.
This year's World Town Planning Day, on November 8, was held in 30 countries on four continents. It is a recognition and celebration of the contributions that sound planning has made to the quality of the human environment and provides recognition of the ideals of community planning among the profession and the general public worldwide.
In recent times, World Town Planning Day has been strongly influenced by environmental themes and this year was no different with much of the world's eyes on the upcoming Cancun U.N. climate change summit. However, our own view is that planners have yet to fully grasp the fundamental question at the heart of the global warming challenge in urban areas: how can cities and towns become far more autonomous and possibly even free from fossil fuels?
In Europe, until now, architects and urban planners have often followed three steps when designing a sustainable built environment. Reducing energy consumption, utilising sustainable energy, and using fossil fuels as efficiently and cleanly as possible. However, to date at least, this approach has not led to substantially more sustainable towns and cities.
As part of a new approach, we have therefore added in another step: re-using waste flows such as waste-water, household and agricultural waste, and residual heat, whilst using renewable energy to satisfy remaining demand. All buildings and urban areas generate "waste streams" that could be harnessed, but rarely are. We believe that adoption of this approach will eventually render the use of fossil fuels completely unnecessary.
Our project is part of the Rotterdam Climate Initiative, which aims to halve the level of CO2 emissions in the city by 2025, compared to 1990 levels. This is an ambitious plan which will require the truly transformational paradigm we advocate in our revolutionary REAP (Rotterdam Energy Approach and Planning) model.
REAP incentivises urban planners to comb urban areas looking for opportunities to exchange energy. For instance, in the area of Rotterdam near the World Trade Centre, many new homes, offices and a second shopping mall and supermarkets are all forthcoming. All of these buildings will have their own heating and cooling needs and produce residual energy flows which can be "exchanged":
* For instance, supermarkets must continually operate cooling systems which produce huge amounts of heat that, at present, simply disappears into the atmosphere. Under our plans, heat pumps will transfer this residual heat to nearby homes and buildings.
* This principle will also allow for the exchange of heat between offices and homes. On hot days, for instance, office air conditioning units roar into action, yet the heat that is produced in this process is currently wasted. It could (and should) be stored, for instance in underground aquifer layers (Heat and Cold Storage) for inter-seasonal exchange (and then used to heat homes during the winter months) or in tanks for covering diurnal or weekly differences.
* Organic waste from the neighbourhood could also be collected to produce biogas. Moreover, there are also plans underway for the city to generate residual demand for energy using available green technologies such as solar panels or heat pumps.
We applied these principals in Hart van Zuid, an existing district in Rotterdam, where urban planning calls for homes to be built near the Zuidplein shopping centre that can use the residual heat generated by a local supermarket. The Ikazia Hospital, which is located nearby and consumes huge amounts of energy, is also being modified to be energy self-dependent by reclaiming heat from residual hot air and water, while also becoming much better insulated by means of an overarching climate façade which resembles a huge greenhouse covered in vegetation.
While REAP principles can be applied universally, they do require a substantial amount of infrastructure changes. For instance, small communal facilities must be built to store and redistribute energy. Moreover, heat pumps and heat storage systems are needed for counter-balancing daily and seasonal temperature changes.
Logistics also provide a challenge. For instance, suppose a newly built residential complex in a CO2 neutral neighbourhood is completed earlier than the supermarket the residents depend on for their heat. The only interim solution here might be an emergency generator which could prove costly.
However, for all of these potential obstacles, the big picture here is that carbon-neutral urban development is definitely possible, at least for the demand for heat and cooling — as we have evidenced through REAP in Rotterdam. We believe that REAP can be applied in any urban geography and the next step is to see whether it can provide a structure for other natural resources such as water and materials.
While that experiment is for the future, we are extremely excited about the value REAP has right now as a planning tool for urban planners to make the transition from existing city regions to more sustainable and autonomous city regions. Indeed, we believe that adoption of this approach will eventually render the use of fossil fuels completely unnecessary, a development that would be truly transformational.
Preparing for the next tsunami
This article by Julian Hunt and first appeared on Reuters The Great Debate UK on Nov 3, 2010. Lord Hunt is a visiting professor at Delft University of Technology and emeritus professor at University College London, and former director-general of the UK Meteorological Office.
Dr Simon Day is a researcher at the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, University College London.
The devastating tsunami that struck the Indonesian islands of Mentawai may have caused about 450 deaths, with hundreds more still missing, and compounds the disaster caused in the country by the eruption of Mount Merapi in Java. Following a magnitude 7.7 earthquake, the Mentawai Islands were engulfed with estimated three-metre waves that affected thousands of households.
What has shocked many about this latest disaster is the fact that, more than five years after the cataclysmic Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, when at least 187,000 people died (with 43,000 still missing), there were no greater preparations against the devastation.
This is especially puzzling to some as, since 2004, our understanding of the risks of tsunamis and how to reduce their impact has advanced considerably through warnings, forecasting and better tsunami-resistant construction and design. For instance, in the past five years there has been significant progress in most aspects of warnings around the world, and the Indian Ocean region now has a system in place.
Much of the explanation for this apparent paradox stems from the fact that, even with a warning system in place, some communities close to epicentres may still not receive the warnings in time. This was exactly the issue with the recent disaster.
With Mentawai no more than 100 kilometres from the earthquake's epicentre, the tsunami waves reached the shores of the islands within 15-30 minutes; even if a tsunami alert had been issued by a warning system, it would have arrived too late for many people to have time to escape. This underlines the fact that, in almost all major earthquake-generated tsunamis (the exceptions occur when the source area is more or less uninhabited), at least 80 percent of the casualties occur in the zone of felt seismic shaking from the source, and within the first hour.
So does this mean that there is nothing we can do to assist communities near earthquake epicentres from tsunamis? The short answer is 'no' in at least two main respects.
First, whether there are warnings or not, communities and infrastructure need to be resilient against the most likely kinds of natural hazards. Since 2004, for instance, many people near the Indian Ocean coastline sleep at higher elevations to avoid surprise tsunamis at night.
Research is now leading to more ambitious solutions for building resilient infrastructure. At several research institutes, including Delft University of Technology and University College London, laboratory wave-makers have reproduced tsunami events. But mathematical models and computations are now needed to turn the experiments into reliable estimates for engineers and for community planners to build tsunami proof structures and plan more resilient communities. With global warming, these calculations also take account of the increasing danger as the sea level rises – which is happening three times faster in tropical seas where tsunami risk is greatest.
Resilience also involves understanding how hazards affect local situations. Education for Self-Warning and Voluntary Evacuation (Eswave) is the best and most cost-effective method, whether in developed countries (as with earthquake drills in California) or in developing countries (as with tsunami-earthquake response procedures that saved many lives in Chile this year).
Eswave helps explain to local communities the diversity of tsunami waves (and the appropriate responses), such as:
● High surge waves, as occurred in Mentawai, which increase in height as they travel at speeds of about 10 metres a second or more up the beach and several kilometres inland, drowning and destroying villages in their path.
● Depression waves, as happened in Thailand and Sri Lanka in 2004 and in Samoa last year, when the water withdraws – lulling people into relaxing or even approaching the beach – before returning as large, surging waves.
The wider use of Eswave could have almost certainly saved lives in Mentawai by teaching local people to find higher ground or move further inland when they felt the initial seismic shaking or perhaps seen initial sea level changes. Survivor accounts indicate that they felt the earthquake, but that many did not react until the early tsunami waves were breaking on the shorelines.
This contrasts strikingly with the behaviour of many communities in the southwestern Pacific, who know that earthquake shaking often precedes a tsunami: mortality rates from tsunamis in such communities are at least 90 per cent lower than in adjacent communities of immigrants who are not tsunami-aware.
Forecasting is the second main way to mitigate tsunami risks. Perhaps the most promising research for improving our predictive skills is holistic geophysical forecasting.
This makes use of the fact that tsunami related disturbances are so large and so powerful that they disturb the solid earth, the oceans and the atmosphere. These disturbances do not lead just to mechanical forces and releases of heat, as in storms, but they also affect electrical, magnetic and molecular processes, especially higher up in the atmosphere.
Modern instruments have become so sensitive that they can measure magnetic fields one millionth of the strength of the earth's magnetic field; they can detect tremors in the earth's rigid outer layer long before large earthquakes and tsunamis actually occur. Research at Moscow's Geoelectromagnetic Research Centre confirms that the motions in tsunami waves can be detected over many hundreds of kilometres from distant measurements of weak, slowly changing magnetic fields.
This new frontier of prediction is pathbreaking and already achieving exciting results. However, true success will only be achieved when human lives are routinely saved by applying both this and other tsunami-related research in practice.
Act locally while awaiting global climate treaty
This opinion piece by Sir Julian Hunt appeared in The Australian on October 08, 2010.
Julian Hunt is visiting professor at the Dutch Delft University of Technology and a former director-general of the UK Met Office.
SCIENTISTS need to do a better job of explaining how the environment affects our lives.
THE UN Framework Convention on Climate Change meeting in Tianjin, China, that ends tomorrow has been taking place against the backdrop of the northern summer's extraordinary floods in Asia and unprecedented temperatures in much of the world. For instance, static weather patterns across much of the western US (which climate change is likely to induce more often in the future) have led temperatures to rise in Los Angeles to 45C. The urgency to act is thus growing: Copenhagen cannot be repeated at the Cancun climate change summit in December.
The problem is that there remains slow progress and uneven elite and popular support in many countries for the UN objective of achieving within the next 20 to 30 years the necessary reductions in overall emissions of greenhouse gases by means of immediate agreed international action by wealthier countries and longer-term action by less wealthy countries with growing populations.
In addition to securing a post-Kyoto global change agreement, we must look beyond present scientific and technical arguments, and political rhetoric, to see whether there may be other ways of moving forward and better engaging the doubters and objectors.
Unlike now, the international consensus paradigm worked well from the 1960s to 90s for dealing with serious continental-scale environmental degradation caused by industrial processes – notably air pollution and the ozone hole. In these cases the scientific case was soon established, within about 20 years, and the economic costs of the technical solution were hardly noticeable.
However, where the solutions of international environmental problems are vastly expensive and life-changing to communities and individuals alike (as with climate change), not only are they sometimes resisted but the science that has identified the problem then tends to be challenged. Dissenting groups have in recent years also doubted data and predictions on the deterioration of the marine environment and fish stocks, and of forests. The challenge of securing an international agreement to replace Kyoto is also complicated by the large and uncertain economic and social effects of such a new treaty, and the increasing recognition that such an approach may not be the best way to achieve the overall desired goal, which is for each country to secure sustainable policies to minimise the human causes of climate change and adapting to its consequences.
In this light, political leaders in several countries and in large cities are showing that other approaches can work. In China – which is now the largest emitter of greenhouse gases – authorities are encouraging industries to reduce emissions by using carbon trading at five regional centres. Beijing is also considering a mandatory carbon trading scheme as part of its 12th five-year plan, due for publication early next year. The European Union's carbon trading scheme may be linked to those in other countries.
There is similar variation in policies. In some countries, including the US, nuclear and wind energy tend to be favoured because they are economic and more secure than importing fossil fuels. US politicians are also often sceptical about the scientific case for human-induced global warming and tend to deprecate any connection between their non-fossil energy policy and reducing global warming.
Other countries concerned about the future reserves and prices of fossil fuels are also now including nuclear energy as part of their non-fossil energy plans, despite there being no reference to this development in the UN summary document following Copenhagen. In Europe, by contrast, political leaders and communities are expanding low-carbon energy systems mainly because they reduce global warming.
Similarly, low-energy technologies to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels are driven as much by economic and resource limitations as by climate change policies and the other international goals of reducing the loss of biodiversity and improving the environment. For instance, the network of mayors of large cities, led by the mayor of Mexico City, is successfully negotiating with automobile companies to reduce the costs of suitable electric vehicles for urban transportation; the co-operative ideal should not be forgotten in the age of global companies and UN agreements.
Whether these practical policies are regional or international, what's uncontroversial is that they will be most effective if they are based on good science and continuing research into the environment, its effects on society and how the climate is changing. All the countries engaged in climate research accept that this requires a global approach.
However, what is missing, and vitally needed, is that the science of climate and environment is much more widely explained, so that people understand how it affects them and how they can positively contribute. In Britain, for instance, car drivers are not informed about how their speeding adds to greenhouse gas emissions, as they are in France and Germany.
In only a few cities of the world is there public information about environmental and climatic trends. But data from air quality monitoring stations may be a beginning to reverse this.
Regularly publicised local data is crucial to enable communities to appreciate trends and the range of possible developments, including the consequences of different emission strategies, protective measures and possible natural hazards that might be likely. Such measures appropriate to each region are being considered right across the world, and in many cases being combined with measures to introduce low-carbon energy systems, such as wind turbines on dykes, reforestation and bio-mass energy. There is no global solution for the best way to combine mitigation and adaptation policies.
Even at the highest level meetings, as at Copenhagen, the data supplied is often quite inadequate.
Hopefully, at Cancun the range of observed and predicted climatic trends for different parts of the world, including the marked differences in the trends over land and sea, will be presented more fully. Science still has much to do to explain and predict the kind of climatic fluctuations seen over the past 10 years when there was a marked cooling of the oceans, which is now ending. How these large fluctuations will strengthen or, as I suspect, weaken is unknown. However, governments and wider society need to know about these possibilities, despite their uncertainties.
Plain Science
This opinion piece by Sir Julian Hunt was published in the SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST on Thursday, October 7, 2010. Lord Hunt is visiting professor at Delft University of Technology and former director general of the UK Met Office.
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change meeting in Tianjin comes against the backdrop of this summer's extraordinary floods in Asia and unprecedented temperatures in much of the world. The urgency to act is thus growing: the disappointment at Copenhagen cannot be repeated at the Cancun climate change summit in December.
The problem, however, is that progress remains slow with uneven support for the United Nations objective of achieving within the next 20 to 30 years the necessary reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, we must look beyond current scientific and technical arguments, and indeed political rhetoric, to see whether there are other ways of moving forward and better engaging the doubters and objectors.
There is an increasing recognition that an international agreement may not be the best way to help each country work out for itself policies to minimise the human causes of climate change and adapt to its consequences.
In this light, some political leaders are showing that other approaches can work. In China – which is now the largest emitter of greenhouse gases – authorities are encouraging industries to reduce emissions by using carbon trading at five regional centres.
Beijing is also considering a mandatory carbon trading scheme as part of its 12th five-year plan, due for publication early next year.
In some countries, including the United States, nuclear and wind energy tend to be favoured because they are economical and more secure than importing fossil fuels.
Still other countries concerned about the future reserves and future prices of fossil fuels are also now including nuclear energy as part of their energy plans, despite there being no reference to this development in the UN summary document following Copenhagen. "Low energy" technologies to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels are driven as much by economic and resource limitations, as by climate change policies.
As well, the basic co-operative ideal should not be forgotten even in the age of global companies and UN agreements. For instance, the network of mayors of large cities, led by the mayor of Mexico City, is negotiating with car companies to reduce the costs of suitable electric vehicles for transport.
Whether these practical policies are regional or international, they will be most effective if they are based on good science and continuing research into the environment's effects on society and how the climate is changing.
What is missing, and vitally needed, is to explain much more widely climate science, so that people understand how it affects them and how they can positively contribute. Public information about environmental and climatic trends is available in only a few cities. But data from air-quality-monitoring stations may be beginning to reverse this. Regularly publicised local data is crucial to enable communities to appreciate trends and the range of possible developments, including the consequences of different emission strategies and protective measures. Such measures are being considered across the world, and in many cases are being combined with measures to introduce lowcarbon energy systems, such as wind turbines on dykes, reforestation and biomass energy.
Even at the highest-level meetings, as at Copenhagen, data supplied is often quite inadequate. Hopefully, at Cancun, the range of observed and predicted climatic trends for different parts of the world will be presented more fully.
Science still has much to do to explain and predict the kind of climatic fluctuations seen over the past 10 years when there was a marked cooling of the oceans – which is now ending. How these large fluctuations will strengthen or, as I suspect, weaken is unknown. However, governments and wider society need to know about these possibilities, despite their uncertainties.


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STRANGE SKIES! Spotted Over Seguin, TX
On the evening of February 24th, before beginning our Public Paranormal Investigation at the Magnolia Hotel in Seguin, TX, Billy noticed something it the sky… An object that could best be described as a hovering black amorphous blob.
This object hovered in the exact same spot as we watched it for ~5 minutes. Maintaining the same altitude, latitude, and size. Then all the sudden it just started going North, then up at 90-degree angle – albeit very slowly. Right after Billy pointed it out, Mark was able to use his phone to record this short video.
The video has not been modified in anyway except to be stabilized, or sped up or slowed down when noted.
What your thoughts as to what this is??
*Watch in 4k Full Screen for best viewing*

subset: commoncrawl


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This Handsome Guy is Ready to be Adopted
Meet Christopher, our Pet of the Week from the Popcorn Park Rescue Zoo.
This adorable little guy is Christopher, a 9 month old kitten that would love a wonderful home of his own. Christopher came to us right before Christmas when our animal control officer was called to a residence to remove him. Apparently Christopher went up on someone's porch in hopes of making a new friend, but instead, he got kicked (literally) off the porch. This lovable little boy certainly didn't deserve that kind of treatment, so we are very happy that he is safe with us now. Christopher is extremely outgoing and adores everyone he meets. He is a true purr-machine and never turns off his purr-er. He just loves to roll around with a nice toy, and will entertain himself for hours just batting around a catnip mouse. Christopher gets along well with everyone and would make a wonderful addition to any loving, caring family that will never kick him out again. Please give our Christmas Christopher the fresh start in life that he's hoping for!
The Popcorn Park Zoo
1 Humane Way
(off of Lacey Road)
Forked River, NJ
609 - 693 - 1900


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OnlySP writes "Science fiction has always been the realm of thought experiments. From Blade Runner's querying of the fundamental nature of humanity, to Orwell's or Huxley's musings on society and control, to The Matrix's slow-motion Jesus backflips, sci-fi has always examined the hypothetical – projecting possibilities on to humanity and society and reflecting them right back at us.
How, then, does DONTNOD's action-adventure title Remember Me fare on the science fiction quality scale? Is it a futuristic Space Odyssey? Or a veritable Plan 9? Let's find out, before I forget what I'm doing."


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Carolina Hurricanes vs. Edmonton OilersNHL.com @NHLdotcom
GAME: Carolina Hurricanes (7-11-8-1) at Edmonton Oilers (11-12-3-0).TIME: Tuesday, 9 p.m. EST.
The Carolina Hurricanes look to snap a three-game winless streak and notch just their third road victory of the season when they continue a four-game trip against the Edmonton Oilers.
Carolina lost 2-1 in overtime at home to the Nashville Predators last Wednesday, and tied the Montreal Canadiens 1-1 at the RBC Center on Friday.
The Hurricanes began their road trip with a 3-1 loss to the Canadiens on Saturday, falling to 2-8-3 on the road this season.
Following Saturday's defeat, Carolina held a players-only meeting.
"We needed to talk about things that we had to talk about as a team," Hurricanes defenseman Bret Hedican said. "It's got nothing to do with anybody else but the 22 guys in this dressing room."
The Hurricanes lost in Edmonton last season, but are 4-2-2 there since the 1993-94 season. Prior to that, Carolina was 2-17-3 all-time in Edmonton.
The Oilers got back on the winning track in their last contest, beating the Pittsburgh Penguins 4-3 on Saturday to snap a four-game losing streak and six-game winless skid.
Edmonton trailed 3-2 after two periods, but Cory Cross tied it 25 seconds into the third before Shawn Horcoff gave the Oilers the lead at 2:56 with his first goal in 10 games.
"It's a big relief," Oilers forward Ryan Smyth said. "When you're struggling, it's frustrating. You're squeezing your stick, losing a bit of confidence. But tonight we decided the game was in our hands."
Edmonton's top goalie Tommy Salo, who has missed the last 13 games with a hip injury, should be ready to start Tuesday. Backup Ty Conklin went 6-6-1 during Salo's absence.
Salo is 4-7-2 with a 2.52 goals-against average in his career against the Hurricanes, who continue their trip at Calgary on Thursday before ending it Sunday in Vancouver.


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It's an unusually cool morning for mid-May in central Florida. Low scud races overhead, indicative more of winter in this area than of the cusp of summer. But the humidity is still here. It always is in Florida. The lake is generally calm, despite a wind that is starting to wake up. Soon the silence is broken by the manmade sound of an air conditioner, which begins another day in paradise.
Sure, it may not be Key West or the U.S. Virgin Islands, but for many pilots, Winter Haven, Florida, is the site of the best vacation imaginable. This small, central Florida city is home to...well, not much. But it does house an unlikely flight training operation—the busiest seaplane training center in the world. Jack Brown's Seaplane Base sits on Lake Jessie, one of a few hundred small lakes in the area, directly adjoining the Winter Haven-Gilbert Airport.
This day, Doug Herr from Syracuse, New York, shows up a little before 8 a.m. to fly one of the school's Piper J-3 Cubs. Herr is a soft-spoken man who planned a family vacation around his training at Brown's. But sporting a clean, collared shirt, pressed shorts, and nice loafers, he's not playing the part yet. The school's office is literally on the water, and obviously learning to fly seaplanes is done on or near the water, so anything more than sandals, sunglasses, and a crazy Hawaiian shirt seems like overkill.
It's an unusual day at Brown's. Herr is the only student who walks through the door. Since the school runs two-day courses for the single-engine sea rating, students start almost every day of the year. School owner Jon Brown says this day is the first in six months that no students begin the training. Mid-to-late May is the start of the slow season. After the April Sun 'n Fun event in nearby Lakeland, things start to wind down, Jon said. Herr started yesterday, meaning this day will be his last, assuming he does an adequate job of getting through the training and passes the checkride.
Soon after Herr arrives, his instructor Will Hickman strolls in. Hickman is young, but after instructing at Brown's for nine months, he's already highly experienced. Hickman has been at Brown's since he was in high school, first by working the line to earn his certificate, and finally moving up the ranks to become a flight instructor. He's unsure of his future plans, although he mentioned going for a job at the regional airlines. This comment sparks debate among the others sitting on the porch. The ranks of floatplane pilots are filled with highly enthusiastic and dedicated individuals, and the thought of flying for a regional airline is, for some, worse than the kiss of death. But Hickman no doubt has thoughts of flying good equipment for good pay, and not having to schlep passengers' bags while doing it. All are potential hazards in a career flying seaplanes. No matter, the experience at Brown's is likely to get him there.
As Herr and Hickman brief the upcoming flight, the wind picks up even more. Now it's gusting at around 15 knots, which is pretty stiff for a student on water flying a Cub. Just then Brian Meadley walks in with his wife at his side. Meadley wears a smile of a guy who looks like he's on permanent vacation. His story is unusual. After flying fighters for the U.K.'s Royal Air Force, he flew Boeing 737s for Saudi Arabian Airlines and Fokker F27s and Douglas DC-9s for East African Airways in Kenya. Retired, Meadley and his wife live in Spain most of the year, but come to central Florida for four months so he can teach at Brown's. "I get four months and it keeps me going for the rest of the year," he says.
Today, it doesn't matter that Meadley doesn't have any students. He comes in to see if he is needed and to enjoy the cool morning air and the coffee. He was going to fly with Jerry Caudill, an instructor who's learning the ropes, but the wind is beyond their comfort level. Instead he shoots the breeze with Caudill and Hickman.
By now Herr is ready to fly and we all watch as the airplane is prepared. Since Brown's runs on a very tight timeframe, little to no attention is paid to extraneous tasks, such as learning how to pump out floats, or how to preflight the airplane on the water. Instead, young linemen get the airplane ready next to the hangar, balance it on to a converted bomb loader, and then roll it over to the ramp. It's a well-choreographed routine that everyone has done hundreds of times. What's next is a bit exciting. The ramp has strips of Teflon that are sprayed down to make them slippery. The linemen each grab a strut, and the airplane is sent down the dock. The whole thing looks like a cross between a well-rehearsed dance and a future $10,000 winner on America's Funniest Home Videos. You're almost rooting for someone to go in the drink, which does happen from time to time.
This time everyone stays dry and Herr jumps in the airplane. Hickman swings the prop and they're off. After a bit of plow taxiing for training purposes, the airplane lines up into the wind, the power is thrown wide open, and they're off the lake. It's a beautiful sight, especially with sun peaking through the clouds to show off the water as it drips off the floats.
As Hickman and Herr go flying, Brown takes a few minutes to talk about the lake and the school. He says that despite early morning flights and lots of training throughout the day, neighbors are happy to have the school. But, he says, "I wouldn't want to be starting out now." To mitigate the noise impact, instructors perform only one takeoff and landing per lesson at Lake Jessie. The rest are done on other lakes in the area. Choices are abundant. Winter Haven doesn't look like land with a series of lakes so much as a huge body of water with a series of islands.
The school has been in operation at this location since around 1964. No one is quite sure when exactly. At the time, Jon's father Jack Brown ran Winter Haven's FBO. Jack was a former Navy pilot who first learned to fly seaplanes in an Aeronca C-3 off the Kanawha River in West Virginia before World War II. In the war he flew the old boats, and it became such a love affair that he later acquired a Cub on floats to satisfy his own cravings, never intending to conduct training in the airplane. Jack and Jon brought the airplane in on a boat trailer, and to get it on the lake next to the airport they had to work through many yards of tall grass on the undeveloped Lake Jessie shoreline. From there Jack would joyride and conduct "splash and goes" on area lakes.
By 1975, Jon was teaching school in the mountains of east Tennessee and Jack had trained hundreds of seaplane pilots, starting with friends and colleagues curious about mastering an airplane on water. He was trying to get out of the FBO business, which is partly why Jon was up north with a Cessna 172 on floats teaching friends to fly on the side. Late in the summer of that year, Jack was flying up to administer checkrides to Jon's students when the elevator failed on the airplane he was flying. He never arrived. Jon has co-owned the business with other family members ever since, and it has thrived under his hands. Now the school owns four Cubs, many of which Jack found in barns and other out-of-the-way locations over the years.
In-house mechanics support all the airplanes. Wandering out to the maintenance shop, one begins to realize what an extensive operation it takes to keep them flying. There are two full-time mechanics and the shop looks like a Cub parts warehouse. Three or four wings hang on the walls; one is on a stand awaiting fabric cover. There are etchings on the spar such as "group ok 9/20/47." One of the mechanics says that marks like this are common from the factory parts. It's a fun glance into history.
We step outside to watch Hickman and Herr approach from the north. Herr pulls the power off slowly and they splash gently onto the lake. After a short step taxi toward the dock to close the long distance quickly, they coast in and shut down the engine. Both hop out looking like they've had too much fun. The linemen tie down the floats and instructor and student head to the porch for a debrief. Hickman asks typical instructor questions, such as the purpose of "the step," and how to perform rough water landings. They've had lots of practice with that today. Now Jon mills around, knowing that it's almost time to start the checkride.
Being such an informal location, the checkride takes on a more relaxed tone than what most pilots are accustomed to. Obviously Jon is confident his instructors have taught the student well, so there isn't much question as to how he or she will fly. There are failures, however, so the pressure for a student to perform is there. Herr is aware of this, and seems a bit nervous. He and Jon go behind closed doors for the question and answer portion of the ride, and Herr emerges a few minutes later and walks to the airplane. A little less than an hour of flying later and they splash back on to Lake Jessie. Instead of the customary docking procedure, they beach the airplane on the opposite side of the office. "I'm not sure if that's a good sign or not," says Hickman. The two jump out of the airplane and talk on the shoreline of the lake for a few minutes. Herr has passed his checkride. He's free to go home and pursue his dream of owning a floatplane and flying off of his local canal. "I got a license to learn," he says.
Other flights are scheduled throughout the day. Hickman needs to renew his CFI. Meadley and Caudill think about flying again. But by now the wind is gusting to 25 knots, beyond the comfort level for most instructors without a pressing need to fly. Instructors come and go. The coffee continues to burn. The phone keeps ringing. Before they know it, the busy season will be here again and things will be moving at a breakneck pace. But tomorrow is just another day in paradise.
E-mail the author at [email protected].


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Epicurean SimplicityBy: Stephanie Mills (author)Hardback
Up to 2 WeeksUsually despatched within 2 weeks
Description"In this book, I relate the pleasures, as well as the virtues and difficulties of a perhaps simpler than average North American life." So begins ecological thinker and writer Stephanie Mills's Epicurean Simplicity, a thoughtful paean to living, like Thoreau, a deliberate life. Mills's account of the simple life reaches deep into classical sources of pleasure - good food, good health, good friends, and particularly the endless delights of the natural world. Her musings about the life she desires - and the life she has created - ultimately led her to the third century Greek philosopher Epicurus, whose philosophy was premised on the trustworthiness of the senses, a philosophy that Mills wholeheartedly embraces. While later centuries have come to associate Epicurus's name with hedonism, Mills discovered that he extolled simplicity and prudence as the surest means to pleasure, and his thinking offers an important philosophical touchstone for the book. As the author explains, one of the primary motivations for her pursuit of simplicity is her concern about the impacts of a consumerist lifestyle on the natural world. Mills touches on a broad range of topics relating to that issue - social justice, biological extinctions, the global economy, and also more personal aspects such as friendship, the process of country living, the joys of physical exertion, the challenges of a writer's life, and the natural history and seasonal delights of a life lived close to nature. An overarching theme is the destructiveness of consumerism, and how even a simple life affects a wide range of organisms and adds strain to the earth's systems. The author uses her own experience as an entry point to the discussion with a self-effacing humor and lyrical prose that bring big topics to a personal level. Epicurean Simplicity is beautifully crafted, fluid, inspiring, and enlightening, examining topics of critical importance that affect us all. It celebrates the pleasures, beauty, and fulfillment of a simple life, a goal being sought by Americans from all walks of life, from harried single parents to corporate CEOs. For fans of natural history or personal narrative, for those concerned about social justice and the environment, and for those who have come to know and love Stephanie Mills through her speaking and writing, Epicurean Simplicity is a rare treasure.
About AuthorStephanie Mills has been engaged in the ecology movement for more than thirty years, and in 1996 was named by Utne Reader as one of the world's leading visionaries. Her books include Whatever Happened to Ecology? (Sierra Club Books, 1989), In Service of the Wild (Beacon Press, 1995), and Turning Away From Technology (Sierra Club Books, 1997). A prolific writer and speaker on issues of ecology and social change, Mills lives in the Great Lakes Bioregion in the Upper Midwest.
Product Details
- publication date: 01/02/2002
- Format: Hardback
- Number Of Pages: 190
Delivery Information
- Saver Delivery: Yes
- 1st Class Delivery: Yes
- Courier Delivery: Yes
- Store Delivery: Yes


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LONG BEACH, MS (WLOX) - Investigators now believe a man found shot to death on the beach this week did commit suicide. But they say he did so at a home in Long Beach, not on the beach where he was found.
Sheriff Melvin Brisolara said two women, in an attempt to cover up the suicide, stripped Jeff Bennett naked and moved his body to the beach near USM's Gulf Park campus.
Amber Lynn May, 29, and Carrie Lynn Ferguson, 28, are both charged with Felony Tampering with Evidence.
The 29-year-old's body was discovered by a jogger around 6am Tuesday morning. Investigators initially thought it was a suicide, but some of the evidence just didn't add up.
They eventually learned that Bennett was at May's residence in Long Beach just before his death, and in the company of both women. They said Bennett shot himself inside the residence that morning, and they decided to move the body to the beach in an attempt to conceal the suicide.
Investigators said the women tried to destroy evidence by throwing out the clothes he was wearing, but they were eventually found and collected by deputies. A search was conducted on May's home and vehicle, and evidence was collected.
The investigation into Bennett's death is continuing.
May and Ferguson are being held at the Harrison County Adult Detention Center. May is being held on a MS Dept. of Corrections warrant for probation violation for a previous conviction of credit card fraud. Ferguson is also being held without bond for a previous conviction of attempted operation of a clandestine drug lab in St. Tammany Parish, LA.
Copyright 2013 WLOX. All rights reserved.


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Satisfying Red Lentil and Mushroom Soup
Makes 6 servings
Preparation Time: 15 min
Cooking Time: 30 min
This flavourful soup is perfect for those rainy days. The best part is it does double duty: save leftovers for tomorrow's lunch, or make a double batch and freeze for a busy day.
|2 tsp
|extra virgin olive oil
|10 mL
|1 pkg
|mushrooms, chopped (227 g/8 oz)
|1 pkg
|onion, chopped
|carrot, chopped
|1/4 cup
|chopped fresh parsley
|60 mL
|1 tbsp
|dried oregano leaves
|15 mL
|2 tsp
|dried thyme leaves
|10 mL
|1/4 tsp
|hot pepper flakes
|1 mL
|1 cup
|red lentils, rinsed
|250 mL
|3 cups
|sodium reduced vegetable broth
|750 mL
|2 cups
|500 mL
|1/2 tsp
|grated lemon rind
|2 mL
|2 tbsp
|fresh lemon juice
|30 mL
|1/3 cup
|crumbled light feta cheese (optional)
|75 mL
Step 1
In a large pot, heat oil over medium-high heat and cook mushrooms, onion and carrot for about 5 minutes or until liquid evaporates from the mushrooms. Stir in parsley, oregano, thyme and hot pepper flakes and cook for 1 minute.
Step 2
Add lentils and stir to combine. Add broth and water; bring to the boil. Reduce heat, cover partially and cook stirring occasionally, for about 20 minutes or until lentils are soft and falling apart.
Step 3
Stir in lemon rind and juice. Ladle into bowls and sprinkle with feta cheese, if using.
ORIGINAL ARTICLE AT: http://www.cookspiration.com/recipe.aspx?perma=jt6hzgiewGZ&d=47&i=2&s=3


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Hey everyone
I've plans to fly independantly to Tokyo at the end of the year, but I'd like to stop over somewhere and I would love to get some suggestions.
Millions of things that would interest me: namely warm weather, snorkelling, surfing, trekking, cycling, meeting locals, volunteer work.
I was thinking of Lombok, Indonesia (east of Bali) but I am not sure RE safety and being female?
Other countries that have popped up are Nepal, Sth Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore...
What would you suggest?


text: Genereux, Donald A., 77, of Elkhart, died Sunday; Stemm-Lawson-Peterson Funeral Home, Elkhart. Knouff, Thomas M., 84, of Winamac, died Sunday; Frain Mortuary, Winamac. Lee-Armin, Dorothy, 99, of Dowagiac, died Sunday; McLauchlin-Clark Funeral Home, Dowagiac. Leffman, Kenneth T., 84, of Granger, died Sunday; McGann Hay Funeral Home-Granger Chapel, Granger. Masterson, James M., 79, of Dowagiac, died Monday; McLauchlin-Clark Funeral Home, Dowagiac. Shock, Denny C., 50, of Plymouth, died Monday; Johnson-Danielson Funeral Home, Plymouth. Weiler, Jayhu J., 77, of Lakeville, died Monday; Palmer Funeral Home, Lakeville.


text:
State figures released Friday show 243 people have died of the flu so far this year, including five deaths reported by health officials in Long Beach.
The statewide death toll is more than double all of last year, when 106 deaths were reported during the 2012-2013 year.
The majority of those who have died this year under the age of 65 had underlying health conditions, health officials said. Four of this year's death were children.
Most also had experienced the onset of illness in the weeks prior to falling fatally ill.
The number of flu cases appears to be decreasing, officials said. Both outpatient visits and hospitalizations have decreased, and hospitalizations are within levels that would be expected at this point in the season.
"The downward trend in the number of influenza cases is a good sign, but the season is far from over," Dr. Ron Chapman, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. "Unfortunately, this influenza season is still severe and the number of influenza related deaths continues to rise. Vaccination is still the best way to prevent illness and the spread of illness."
The city with the highest number of deaths in the state is Los Angeles, with 33.
The elderly, pregnant women, infants and those with health conditions are especially prone to risk and should see their doctor if they experience symptoms, officials said.
— From staff reports


text:
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Logistics Consulting
Notraffik Logistics Consulting is our Flagship Service,simply because via our Network of People Places Things, we can and will collaborate with our Network Affiliates to get your freight where it needs to be.


text:
Korean Hip-Hop
DOK2 and his music
김승준 firstname.lastname@example.com
|Copy URL / Share SNS
Tight beats combined with lyrics are the main components of hip-hop. It is a genre of music that formed in the late 1970s through African Americans and Hispanics and it used to be referred to as a new cultural movement. Hip-hop consists of four factors: rap, D Jing, graffiti, and breakdancing. Out of the four, DOK2 is an music artist who represents one of the best rappers of Korea.
DOK2's Career
Lee Joon-kyung, better known by his stage name DOK2 (pronounced dokki), was born between a Spanish-Filipino father and a Korean mother. Since his uncle was an American soldier, he grew up listening to Nas and The Fugees. While attending an international school, he was discriminated for his looks. When he turned 12, his father's restaurant went out of business and DOK2 dropped out of school. "My family was poor, and I started out as a musician because they seemed to earn a lot of money," said DOK2 during an interview on the TV program Yoo Hee-yeol's Sketchbook.
At the age of 13, DOK2 started making mixtapes through karaoke melodies and started producing. As he joined the Movement crew, a group of Korean rappers, he formed a hip-hop duo (All Black) with Microdot and became known for being the youngest rapper in Korea. Through the 2nd album of Dynamic Duo, Circus, DOK2 started featuring in professional hip-hop albums but did not make much money. After All Black split up due to financial reasons, DOK2 produced his first mix tape (Thunderground Musik Mixtape Vol. 1) in 2008, in a limited amount of 3000 CDs.
DOK2's career as a music producer started in 2009 through collaborating with Drunken Tiger, Epik High and other rappers. As he was producing for these well-known Korean rappers, he held his first concert in 2010. DOK2's contract with production agencies did not work out well, which got him working independently. He continuously produced mixtapes and performed in concerts. In 2011, DOK2 and The Quiett announced that they established 1llionaire Records, now one of the most renowned hip-hop music labels in Korea. The name '1llionaire' is a combination of ill and millionaire, with the ambition of being the best hip-hop music label in Korea. In the same year of June, Beenzino also joined the label.
DOK2 Swagger
"Just because somebody is older and has more experience, they shouldn't all be trusted. Although that person may have been regarded as successful, if that success was not maintained for over 10 years, there are plenty of reasons to doubt the advice given by the person. There is nobody in the world that has contemplated and thought of my problems more than I have."
The quotation above is an excerpt from DOK2's autobiography, Illionaire Life. This is the part of the book where DOK2 is defined along with his independent features. He is well known for being a sincere Buddhist, not drinking or smoking and controlling anger. Although a lot of people criticize him for wasting money, he has something to say. "I used to be dirt poor and everyone I knew told me that I would not be able to succeed through music. I have succeeded now, having overcome the prejudice of many and I am very proud of that. People should believe in their dreams to achieve it," said DOK2. "I have always wanted to be like the rap stars in America while watching the MTV- their big houses, closets full of Jordans. I envied that. I wanted to be like them through my music," he added during an interview with Hiphopplaya, Korea's hip-hop webzine site.
DOK2 sees his music as matjib which means a place where the most famous and delicious foods are sold. He says that large production agencies are like family restaurants in that there is a lot to be seen and very popular, but since the cost of production is too much, not having much left over in terms of money- while his music is like pork soup in Busan which regular customers consume. "You should be bragging about your money and life when you have independently earned it yourself. That's what gives real swag and respect to your story," DOK2 added. He wishes to buy a house in Hawaii for his father who has not traveled abroad for 30 years whilst working in Korea.
DOK2's music has not simply developed this much overnight. Since becoming a professional, he produced 320 songs in 10 years. Although DOK2 is well known for his trap beats such as YGGR, he is also quite familiar with boom bap beats as well. One of the songs that has both beats in it could be Air-Do-The-Q produced by DOK2 during a mission on a Korean hip-hop TV show, Show Me The Money. Over time, DOK2 has built up his reputation as a representative Korean rapper, with diligent working habits and faith in himself. Although he only graduated from primary school and did not receive higher education, he wishes that people who watch him would be inspired to chase their own dreams and succeed in life as he himself did.
Kim Seung-jun email@example.com
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This week's top news
Korean Couple Culture
Contrast between Korean and English
Korean Cartoons Online, the Webtoon
History of Makeup: from Goryeo to Joseon
The Life of Korean High School Students
Democracy Blossoms in South Korea
Fine Dust Threatening Korean People's Health
[Op-ed] A Birth Map to Raise the Birth Rate?
Korean Hip-Hop from the US
Development of the Korean Automobile Industry


text:
On the lighter side -- Daddy's Little Angel
By Phil Runkel
Also from The Scottish Legal News ... I especially like the part where the clueless Dad thinks the "job interview" went particularly well!!
A young woman accused of robbing a bank duped her dad into being her getaway driver by telling him she was going there for a job interview.
Chelsea Wilson, 24, was arrested on Friday morning and later admitted robbing a TD Bank in Fort Lauderdale, Florida the previous afternoon.
It transpired that Wilson's own father had driven her to the heist because she had told him she was actually trying to get a job there.
When later questioned by police, he told them that when his daughter emerged with $300 in cash, he simply believed it had gone particularly well and she had been given an advance.
In fact, according to the Florida Sun-Sentinel, sometime between leaving her father's car and going to the "interview", Wilson covered her blonde locks with a red wig and hat and put on sunglasses.
She then allegedly entered the bank shortly before 4pm and handed the teller a handwritten note demanding money:
"You have exactly one minute to give me all your $50 & $100 bills from both your drawers or I will shoot you! No dye packs, no alarms follow these instructions and no one will get hurt, act normal."
She then took her haul to the bank's car park and to an SUV that FBI agents later determined was registered to her father.
A witness reported Wilson after recognising her as someone wanted in connection with four other recent robberies, the Palm Beach Post reported.
She later admitted to committing all five robberies and had spent the money from the most recent heist on groceries.


text:
Rabu, 02 Maret 2011
Lowongan Kerja UOB Buana (Mar 2011)
System Analyst (SA) for BTS1 (Jakarta Raya)
* To collect and analyze the users requirements.
* To develop the project plan and to ensure the project can be run on schedule.
* To undertakes system analysis and to design functional specification.
* To develop SIT Plan and to perform SIT (System Integration Test).
* To liaise with users on UAT and documentations.
* To manage resources within the team.
* To provide progress report of projects.
* To conduct support and maintenance of implemented system.
* Bachelor degree in IT or related field, min GPA 3.0.
* Having minimum 3 years experience in system design and analysis.
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* Good in English both written and spoken.
Analyst Programmer (AP) for BTS2 (Jakarta Raya)
* Male
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* Experiences on development of application of Services, Finance (is an advantages)
* Experiences on development and customizing of MS.Share Point Portal
* Have good knowledge and skill in SDLC
Send your complete CV not more than 200 KB with recent colorful photograph and expected salary to : firstname.lastname@example.com
Langganan: Posting Komentar (Atom)


text:
After putting meat to be vacuumed into the Foodsaver bag, I then enclose the cut-out from the supermarket meat sticker/description indicating cut of meat, weight, date, etc. Then I 'seal' the meat and record the date of the sealing with a black permanent marker.
Add your voice! Click below to comment. ThriftyFun is powered by your wisdom!


text:
Columbia Gas System, a major pipeline company that supplies natural gas to the Northeast, agreed Thursday to cut prices by as much as $1 billion to settle a host of private lawsuits charging that it had paid producers imprudently high prices for gas since 1981.
As a result of the 11.5 percent price cut for customers of Columbia Gas, more than four million homeowners and businesses in eight states and the District of Columbia will pay lower monthly bills. The biggest effect will be in Ohio, where each of one million customers will save about $5 a month.
The other affected customers live in New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia, Kentucky, West Virginia and the nation's capital, plus those in New Jersey who are served by the Elizabethtown Gas Co.
The settlement, which requires formal approval by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, after a period for public comment ending April 26, would take effect retroactively as of April 1. The price cuts cover a two-year period, but energy analysts said they could remain in force indefinitely, depending on market conditions.
Thursday's settlement, believed to be by far the largest of its kind ever negotiated, has its origins in the scramble by the company and its Columbia Gas Transmission Corp. subsidiary to assure adequate supplies after widespread gas shortages of the mid-1970's, particularly during the severe winter of 1976-77 when some factories and schools were forced to close.


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first post in 2016 🙂 a little slow start this year compared to the earlier years 😉 … but it only looks like that, as i am very busy to get the game finished. i need to have it done by the end of the week, and still there is a lot to do. in the moment, i am struggling again with coding. it has become quite complex, and i start to loose the complete overview, which makes tracking bugs hard … but, my goal is to get it done in time… it will be a birthday gift to my husband, since i believe he will like it because of the topic 🙂 … and, i want share it with you my dear readers, as a thank you, since you helped me so much with it 🙂
i wish you all a happy new year 2016. and that you will have a great creative new year with lots of inspirations and fun time of bringing your art to life, be it writing, sculpting, music, making movies, games, or whatever it is that tickles your interest.


text:
In <email@example.com>, Joe Thompson <firstname.lastname@example.com> writes:
>Matt Beckwith wrote:
>> Actually, there's a second trait known to be on that chromosome, but I
>> forget what it is. Of course, leave us not forget the trait of being
>> male.
>You mean "the lack of the trait of being female."
Isn't female the default?
----- John Varela firstname.lastname@example.com -----


text:
The Galleon "Neptune" was built for the Roman Polanski film Pirates in 1986. The ship is an actual reproduction of a Spanish Galleon. It's now on display in the Italian port city of Genoa and is open for visitors.
Neptune is a 3-mast ship, it measures 63m long by 26m wide and is capable of sailing at a speed of 5 knot.
View location in Genoa, Italy.


text:
MONDAY, Jan. 8, 2018 (HealthDay News) -- The current flu season is shaping up to be a nasty one, but there's good news for American seniors who've gotten their flu shot.
New research shows that for older adults, faithfully getting the vaccine each year greatly reduces the odds of catching a flu so severe that it lands you in the hospital.
Researchers found that repeated influenza vaccination offers a double benefit in older adults, proving 74 percent effective in preventing intensive-care (ICU) admissions and 70 percent effective in preventing deaths.
The findings bolster the notion that although getting a flu shot doesn't always prevent the flu, it can make it milder for those who do catch it, said study author Dr. Jesus Castilla. He's a researcher at the Navarra Institute for Health Research in Pamplona, Spain.
"We were surprised by the big magnitude of the vaccine effect in preventing severe influenza," Castilla said. "Our results show the importance of annual vaccination for preventing severe influenza in the older population."
"The prevention of severe influenza was mainly observed in patients repeatedly vaccinated in both the current and previous [flu] seasons, which reinforces the recommendation of annual influenza vaccination in the elderly," he added.
Millions of Americans catch the flu every year, resulting in hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Flu-related deaths ranged from 12,000 to 56,000 annually between 2010 and 2017, according to CDC estimates.
Older adults, whose immune systems aren't as robust, are more prone to suffering severe outcomes from flu infection, including hospitalization, complications and death, Castilla noted.
"Annual vaccination acts as a booster for their immune response," he said. "In other words, the protection increases as compared to the effect of vaccination in a single season."
The new research by Castilla and his colleagues involved hundreds of hospitalized patients, older than 65, who had influenza -- both severe and less severe cases -- as well as those who did not.
People who'd gotten a flu vaccination in the current and three previous flu seasons were half as likely to develop a severe case of the flu, the study found.
"I think it's reassuring that what we recommend people to do -- which is to get vaccinated every year -- actually does provide some additional protection," said Dr. Marci Drees, who was not involved with the new study. She's an infection prevention officer and hospital epidemiologist with Christiana Care Health System in Wilmington, Del.
"The most important take-home message is to get your flu shot and not worry about how effective it is this year," Drees added, referring to concerns that the current U.S. vaccine might be only marginally effective.
"People might be more inclined to skip it, but this study really emphasizes that a primary benefit is year after year of consistently getting that flu shot helps keep people out of the hospital and ICU," she said.
Developing each year's flu vaccine is a tricky business, Drees explained. Health officials in the Northern Hemisphere check what strains of the virus circulated most widely in the Southern Hemisphere in previous months and then adapt the vaccine to those expectations.
"They have to do a little bit of guesswork . . . and don't always guess correctly," she said.
Recent studies show that flu vaccination cuts the risk of flu illness by 40 to 60 percent among the general population.
Drees said she'd like to see research focus on younger populations, including children, to determine if similar protection is conferred after repeated vaccinations.
"You're boosting your immune system every time you get that vaccination," she said. "We know immunity wanes more quickly in older people, so getting that boost year after year is probably contributing to the protection we've seen against severe disease."
The study is published online Jan. 8 in the journal CMAJ.
More information
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has more on flu vaccination.
SOURCES: Jesus Castilla, M.D., Ph.D., researcher, Navarra Institute for Health Research, Pamplona, Spain; Marci Drees, M.D., M.S., infection prevention officer and hospital epidemiologist, Christiana Care Health System, Wilmington, Del.; CMAJ, Jan. 8, 2018, online
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