text:
Any tips for Long term trading
Any tips for Long term trading
Short term trading does not bother me but I feel lost when entering a trade that lasts for days and feel like I have no clear understanding on what to do. How ofter do you check your trades when holding for days and how do you decide when the trade has gone in the wrong direction for too long and you need to just close it out?
@susan as for my two pips worth define long term trading, swing trading is typically overnight however when you go way out there a few days or a week etc. that's would be defined as long term at least to me. I do trade overnight and these days its hard with such a choppy market, you just never know when a trend decides to pull back or even reverse. So for the most part you need to adjust the stop loss to fit the price cycle and time cycle (a wider spread so you don't get stopped out. But that also increases your risk and the trends are just not that long these days.
In Apiary there are several overnight strategies and STeve Perry is the man to teach them, You might want to check out his overnight class and previous videos.
I and a few other newbies that I know have found a safe haven somewhere in the middle from 10-50 pips. Some use scaling to add to this position. I recently started using the 5R in the one click box and have found it very effective.
well my 2 pips are up. Enjoy.
Thanks, I'll check Steve Perry out. Your right I should have said I needed help with swing trading. Hearing you say it's been hard to do recently with how choppy the market has been makes me feel a whole lot better. I was starting to feel like it was impossible for me to learn how to swing trade.
I am a long term trader. I base my trades off the monthly chart and enter trades on a 8hr (two 4hr candles in Alveo) chart. I will typically place a trade and let it run for 10-12 hrs before the trade close but it would not be unusually for the trade to stay open for several days.
For an 8hr candle, I only look at the chart 3 times in a 24hr period. Going in the wrong direction for too long is never an issue. I have a defined risk and the trade either hit profit or closes for a loss, time is not a issue.
If your interested check out the Crazy 8's discussion. This was my first introduction to long term trading. I feel it is a very good place to start.
Susan, Gregg is a great trader and if ever there was an expert with the Crazy 8's strategy.
Hi Susan, I don't know if you're ready for the system I use, because price targets take about 12 to 18 hours, and sometimes several days. This system takes the guessing out of the equation, but it takes a tremendous amount of faith and patience to achieve success.
I posted the system on another thread named, "Indicators? No more", but for convenience, I copied it below:
"I use price action as well; however, I refer to news events and recent monetary policy comments and other reports to get a feel for market sentiment, then I will refer to the previous day High & Low to setup "fractal" targets, (13.1 pips) above Pivot High to take profit if touched and also (13.1 pips) below Pivot Low to take Profit if touched. This works as price expands further each trading day, rather than monitoring the trade 24/7. Market sentiment tends to follow monetary policy over news events, however, news events like oil inventories will push monetary policy to some degree. Notice, how the falling US dollar correlates to a strong support @ $60.00 plus per barrel of crude oil."
My favorite indicators are the MACD, RSI, ADX, CCI, STOCHASTIC as a reference to previous days trades, to confirm current profit targets. I use the H1 Chart only for this analysis. But will confirm overall trend and reversal patterns with D1, H4 charts.
Since these are 24 hour setups: That makes me a "Day Trader" lol
Entry position in the market doesn't matter as profit targets are also reversal entries. See Gold chart below for example:
Takes a "LOT" of faith and patience!!
Best wishes!
Also the counter trend is about 22 to 33 pips each day.
Forex provides a lot volatility . so short term and day trade is better. long term daily and waste time and money. 4hr chart is ok.
not this evening it didn't, lets see what the euro brings tonight.
a long term trend can last many months in the Forex.
So my advise would be to hold on to it as long as you can. easy said, but it really takes some study to know when that long term trend is really over.
And as usual, it really is easy to pick the beginning and the end after the fact.
maybe you can see it, if so, hold it.
@anybee and your thoughts?
As they say a trend starts at the bottom but a reversal starts at the top.
1. assuming a pair has say 100 pips of movement per day. What would your SL be placed.
2. assuming the trend is ongoing would you expect the pair after 5 days have at least 500 pips for TP
I am using the long term strategy and seems to do better for me. Even though watching Shawn and Nate in the trading room i can't seem to grasp the scalping concept. But I will keep going to the trading room and try and learn as much as I can.
Susanh, hello and good day to you.
You pose a really good question. Understanding of the market is going to be key, as well as patience in understanding that price cycles move up and down, regardless where the market is and whether it is trending or correcting.
My trades are primarily long term. Not necessarily in days, but sometimes the trades can take days to materialize. I routinely provide insights to how I trade and what I look at/for in the Honeycomb group.
As for closing trades, that is accomplished by two things primarily. Your target and your stop. If your stop is correctly positioned (easy to determine using support and resistance) you leave the trade to run until it either A, hits your target, or you get stopped out. Getting stopped is typically an identifier of being early to the party, or you're trading the wrong direction. If you're interested in checking out the Honeycomb sometime, let me know, perhaps Nate, or Curtis will allow you to visit and check it out, or if you'd like, shoot me an email and perhaps I can answer any of the more detailed questions you may have.
have a blessed day,
Trade wisely!
Good morning all. Just got to Gold III on Friday. Have attending Doug Eaton's classes and he makes long-term trading seem simple. I will take me a while to trust the outcome of long-term strategies since I'm funded, so I'll be practicing this in a sim account for the time being and just trade in more of a scalping mode in the live account I am also still learning and it takes great discipline to let a profitable trade run. I have been too 'green happy' and close the trade with small gains. I had almost 1000 trades while I was in Gold II and was in constant trouble to be profitable but made it to III Friday with a giant day of gains.
My best to you all and I'll be coming back here to get reinforced.
Good luck to you Ted. I really do prefer longer term trading so I would encourage you to practice and gain confidence.
Well I finally accomplished the goal of 25 pips in 24 hours. Patience really does seem to be the key after you have confirmed the trend. I'm so use to scalping and not having to wait. Many times I closed out trades when I thought I was down too many pips even though the overall trend was going in the right direction. Now in my normal trading, I have been trying longer trades that last a few hours and have had good results.
Hi Susanh,
I'm also trying to learn long term trading too.
I cam across Support and resistance trading on long term charts ( daily ,wkly and monthly)
you can make lots of pips if we get it right as we aim from one area to next as targets.
God bless you!
I find the 4H chart is best for me. It's less volatile than the smaller times and I do not have the patience for something to set up on the Daily charts.
one thing you can do to help your long term trading success is to look at the daily, weekly and monthly charts of whatever pair you want to trade and make sure all three charts have those pairs going in the same direction, and they should all be above or below whatever ema you are using, so if you use a 20 ema, look to see how long they have been abovr or below the 20 and the longer they have been above say the 20ema there is a good chance they will continue in that direction. And from there you can fine tune your entry by waiting for that pair you are using to touch the 20 then enter trade with a stop loss just below the 20 ema. also use the bolinger bands to help give you some perspective. you can use the top of b.b. or bottom of b. b.for a profit target. I hope my rambling made some sense.
My first criterion is the following: I strongly prefer to trade long-term setups whenever the monthly, W1, and D1 short-term trends align.
My second criterion is the following: I want the D1 short-term trend to align with the H4 short-term trend, or as long as the H4 short-term trend isn't down I also would like the D1 short-term trend to align with the H1 short-term trend.
My third criterion is that every good long-term trade begins life as a good scalp (meaning I scalp into a core position that I might hold long-term). You already are a pretty good scalper, so you already know what good scalps are. Simply focus on potential scalps that also meet the other 2 criteria.
thanks Hac, I already do the first and second criteria,
I shall add the 3rd criteria to my scalping,
That's really great logic.
Are you sure your not Mr. Spock in disguise?
Thanks again.
Well, from listening to some class months ago, the 25pips for 24hrs task is actually rather simple. Mostly because at that Silver level you don't have to worry about Expectancy. If anyone in Silver needs help with this task, reach out to me and I'd be willing to help!
Very impressive!
I agree tedmotoform, I find the trader development class that Doug teaches to be helpful when looking for longer term trades.
about as simple as it can get.
Hac, could you provide a description and example of how you find the "core position"in a market?
drilling down thru the time frame charts will certainly confirm tren direction but how is core position defined?
"Trading around a core position" is one of Jeff's and Shawn's core trading philosophies; they extensively talk about it (all of the time). I learned it from them, and it's one of my core trading philosophies too.
Have you ever noticed that Jeff and Shawn tend to use scalping primarily for 2 purposes (building buffers and establishing/building position trades)? If not, then go back and revisit several NFP trading andTrading Room sessions respectively, and listen to what they're saying about what they're doing and why they do it.
I'm an Analytical-Aggressive trader just like Jeff and Shawn. For aggressive traders, the "how to find the 'core position' . . ." question has a seemingly obvious solution: keep on grinding until you get one. :) Again, watch Jeff and Shawn; you'll see exactly what I mean; and I do the same thing. I notice that Brian does something similar too (based on some of his comments in several of the Alignment classes).
Thanks Hac, I have watch many of those videos some several times. Somehow I missed them using that terminology of cor position. I shall endeavour to watch and listen more closely.
Having a high winning rate it is not necessarily in long term trading.
true, you can have a 30% win-loss if you maintain a 3:1 ratio.
min win-rate calculations:
1:1 reward:risk: 1x = (1 - x) --> 2x = 1 --> x = 1/2 (break-even), so therefore a win-rate ≥ 51% would be profitable
2:1 reward:risk: 2x = (1 - x) --> 3x = 1 --> x = 1/3 (break-even), so therefore a win-rate ≥ 34% would be profitable
3:1 reward:risk: 3x = (1 - x) --> 4x = 1 --> x = 1/4 (break-even), so therefore a win-rate ≥ 26% would be profitable
and so forth . . .
We are pretty much in the same boat; I made Gold 3 on Thursday.
We are amazingly in synch; maybe not so amazing considering Apiary training.
I do price action scalping and feel a need to broaden my trading skill set as well. I often have 10 to 20 trades that suddenly "go green" on a price spike and I flatten the position to capture the move's gains but then instantly regret not having any potential runners left. Trying to rapidly close individual trades does not work well and re-entering of course loses the accumulated gains and changes the risk/reward ratio cushion. Hence, another reason for my new interest in LT trading.
Originally I was thinking I need a long-term trading method to survive/build wealth as a Forex trader. You mentioned Doug's method; I am working it in a dedicated sim acct. Have you considered any of Kathy Lien or Linda Raschke/Laurence Conners strategies from their books? Raschke's material in particular is time tested from the 1970s and '80s; Lien's work was published in 2016. Also, I have started gleaning the Forum posts for LT strategies to test as well; picked-up a few possibilities there. And I am just finishing Al Brooks, " Trading Price Action, Trends" (the first of his trilogy); the chapter on Channels is particularly helpful for reading price action on higher TFs.
All of which is making me testy about testing; very time consuming.
Maybe we can help each other find some LT strategies to match our short-term method successes.
Good luck,
@hac, thank you for the enlightenment, great computations, thx for the post.
@Tom I have read and practiced Lien's double Bands. At first I found it helpful later on I discarded the 1% and just used the Apiary bands, later on I discarded bands altogether, in favor of Apiary Pivots. That said the Bands worked well I just like a cleaner screen and I think the pivots do a better job of marking the trends.
@bee's, I haven't read read Al Brooks but with so many mentions this week end I shall.
Thanks all.
"I do price action scalping and feel a need to broaden my trading skill set as well. . . . Maybe we can help each other find some LT strategies to match our short-term method successes."
CTH: I don't recall your preferred TF(s) for trading, but I'll assume (for this comment) that you currently trade off TFs less than H1. For years (prior to late 2015), 100% of my long-term trades failed. Although I understood swing-trade theory, I just couldn't get any of them to work for me, and I couldn't figure out what I kept doing wrong.
So I decided to take a different approach, since I clearly understood that the fractal nature of PA and market structure inferred that each TF chart simultaneously presents a different perspective of every price move. That implies short-term price moves off higher TFs are equivalent to intermediate-/long-term price moves off lower TFs. With that in mind, I loaded M1, M5, and H1 charts; placed (and managed) some scalps off H1; and observed those scalps off M1 and M5. I repeated that process replacing the H1 chart with a H4, D1, and W1 chart. Doing all of that helped to fill in the missing gaps in my knowledge on swing-trading.
I hope that helps.
Hello Everyone,
I'm still struggling with long term trading too. So I use scalping to help me on beeline. There are some great ideas from Doug and others in Apiary but I think when you have small account say $1000 to start long term trades tie up too much capital and takes too long to reach goals to make profits too!
So I use M1, M5, M15 and H1 to scalp my way forward
Also recently many support and resistance areas are broken down so I'm confused ! I think I will go to youtube videos and Apiary lessons on long term set ups see if I can hone the process and make profits again!
Blessing to you ALL!
Vin so far the best LT trading account I have seen is Gregg's. I'll see if I can find you some of his most recent documentation.
BTW are you any group member?
Your last comment was in Feb 2018 so you probably are developed a long term strategy by now. I am working my way through Gold two. I am in the 2nd week and have made about 100 trades so far. About half of them have been long term. I use the same strategy for all my trading however. EMA 10, EMA 21, EMA 50 and MACD. On the daily I look for the MACD crossing up or down on the zero line and at the same time the EMA 10 crossing up or down on the EMA 21. When that happens I check the 30 min and 5 min to see that they are following the same pattern. When all are in agreement I make the trade with a 100 pip take profit and a 50 pip stop loss.
As my trade develops I move my take profit and stop loss if necessary to take less profit or more profit.
"when you have small account say $1000 to start long term trades tie up too much capital and takes too long to reach goals to make profits"
Although some edge cases exist for trading with a small amount of equity, one effectively doesn't have to worry about them--unless one has at most $100 of equity. Clearly with $1K, one doesn't need to account for the edge cases.
With that in mind, the specific amount of equity isn't the issue. A pip is a pip, and a percentage is a percentage. Hence, long-term trades tie up capital for the same amount of time and pips whether one has $1K or $100K of equity.
Sure, attempting to generate $100 (or more) per day would be harder to do with $1K of equity than with $100K of equity, because $100 is a 10% return in the prior case, whereas, it's a 0.1% return in the latter.
Scalpers (myself included) tend to focus more on short-term trends. Intermediate- and long-term trading tends to confuse us, because we're not used to paying as much attention--if any--to intermediate- and long-term trends. Plus, we're not used to watching how the short-, intermediate-, and long-term trends interact. That fact frequently leads us to close our intermediate-/long-term trades prematurely--either out of impatience or feeling that the trades aren't working.
VP, here's something that's helped me with my intermediate- to long-term trading: price tends to reverse near H4 or higher TF R/S-zones, and price tends to pause otherwise at lower TF R/S-zones. Although that's not true 100% of the time, it's true more often than not.
I'm interested in hear back from anyone who might be applying long term day trading strategies. Day trading or placing one trade a day gives bigger rewards but takes longer.
I'm interested to know more about any strategy that has a good win ratio over a 28 day period.
@scroogie, Long-term is hard for me but @gpdno = Gregg just above has a strategy that works based on an 8-hour chart and previous month or further out high and low.
And whatever hak says is always right on. He proves every everything idea, assumption or notion no matter with math and is seldom incorrect.
Another trader is triguy = Lesily a real technicion does very well no matter the time period, he hasn't posted in this thread yet and currently is time limited.
Doug the instructor has some interesting ideas many of which I would not recommend for a low (under 10K) funded account.
And Steve the instructor does the overnight thing which works for some but I'm not one of that some.
I know there are many more but they just don't post often.
This isn't a full strategy but it's a start.
If we have a 4-hour candle that closes green, there is an 89% chance price will break back below that candles open within the next 168 candles (28 days). Vice versa for shorts.
So if you just targeted the open price of a bullish 4-hour bar after it closed, and held for 28 days, you'd win 89% of the time. The trick is you need to ensure that your losses are never 8x the size of your wins and you will be in the $$$$$.
P.S. That 89% hit rate pretty much stays constant across all 28 major currency pairs/crosses.
@shutterlake, very interesting post, what are you using besides a 4-hour candle?? to plan this trade?
Those are just the raw stats based on the distribution of price as a function of time. So that has nothing built around it, it is just a hit rate that @scroogie (or anyone reading) can build a system around and as long as he limits his losses so they are never 8-9x larger than his wins, he would have a positive expectancy.
Another huge bonus of this kind of 4hr system, is the spread cost we are talking about in the other thread will be very very small relative to the size of the range between your TP and SL.
The most difficult part for me are the stop losses with long-term trading. Doug successfully taught me his SMA method, and I did very well - without SLs. Problems started with the requirement of not having any trades going against you more than 20 PIPs in Silver II, and are now continuing in that I am stopped out most of the time even though the trade in 80% goes eventually in my direction. I have tried staggered SL and TPs, entering only with one trade when the price had just crossed (before I always went all in with 5 or 10), different SL sizes based on distance to last resistance/support or SMA 30. But by now my win/loss and size of wins vs loosers is completely off. Is alignment with shorter or longer timeframes the answer? Thanks a lot.
Hi Susan, a great class to follow on long term strategy is the" Trade Development " class on Tuesday and Thursday.
RE: "when the trade has gone in the wrong direction" ... Solution: Use the long term charts to align the direction of your trade. Place your stops tight below the support line of your long term chart. If the market is going to break to the downside on a long term chart, it ain't gonna stop until the currency starts to trade below the 23% Fib retracement level. That is the easy part. Now, what if the trade takes off, how do you gauge that? If you use your long term chart as a set up, and the intermediate chart confirms, you should be setting up your trailing stops of 50 points initially and 25 points upon break even plus 25 points based on the short term chart. Go ahead and get stopped out. If you have identified a positive trend, you can always re-put the trade back on if the market pulls back below the level you were stopped out at. If not ... patience. Nothing lasts forever.
i would recommend looking at this thread! been using it for about a week and it seems to be working well!
@anubhav.sx What a wonderful world we live in. I have been using crazy 8s for months now with a very mild positive equity curve but over the last month or so I have been going backwards. I am waiting for things to pick up again. Have you been using it in your $1000 prefund account?
thank you anubhav.sx I'll check it
Hi Susan,
if you would like to trade long term, you should define D1 global trend, using H1, H4, for entry point,
eg, Bull Of D1, price is over 20 SMA Band, SAR, 40 HMA, But it is not too far, then you find H1 or H4 chart, price is just confirmed Pivot Low point, it just over SAR, 20 SMA Band, 40 HMA is turned color as bule, then you could place buy order, SL is under Povit Low Point or Lower Band line, TP is 1, 1.5 or 2 time of SL.
If you want to look for sell, it is reverse the about method.
Here is a tip for all Long Term Traders and wannabee LT folks. Jeff is starting a long-term cycles series as part of his cycles discussion.
https://apiaryfund.com/calendar?event=38824&d=#calendar-event, I might not be posted until the morning.
susanh always look to buy low and sell high, use support and resintance, 15 minutes charts and 1 hour charts.
I like listening Doug and watching his long term trades ... Doug will frequently get 200, 300, 400+ pips on a trading. I am testing out putting a 100 pip trailing stop loss on my trades to preserve my gains.
@drdgn, please stop back often and let us know how this is going? I for one am extremely interested in this result.
I also enjoy Doug's "Trade Development" webinars.
The challenge that I have been facing is having a Gold II account that I have hit the 5% risk limit on many times (and other losses, as well) so much so that the account is down to $420. That small of an account seems to make it very easy to hit the Apiary risk limits. I realized this recently and plan to ask Support to re-set my account to $1,000 (it is a demo account, after all - couldn't do that in Gold III ha!).
I'd like to hear your thoughts on Doug's system, too!
Mark well you can ask in G3 but don't hold your breath. I am currently down $700 but do not despair. Have faith and be faithful deliverance is just one step away. It is a decision only each of us can make no matter the obstacle.
So I do not want o to disparage po ol Doug, however, I have no problem disparaging his so-called system. I don't care what MA is used if the PA is above or below and the trade is not in a contradictory state no matter the confirming indicator which way is the trade likely to go? No south sayer here, of course, it's going to continue until it doesn't. You know a rolling stone.
And this is the colossal pro=blemn I have with the trade development classes and refuse to attend another one until its format is changed. Doung says he is here to inspire thought! He has in me. His class is very dangerous because it doesn't teach one iota of follow up or follow thru and you as a student have no way to even look at the data all the data and do the work yourself. So for my negative pip, I think the class is teaching bad trading with only negative reinforcement.
It's not rocket science, I'm using a 24 hr chart maybe I should check my trade every 24 hours. Then maybe on the looser aI had to close out, just maybe I should do a trade plot and see what I or the pip's defied my rationale for taking the trade in the first place. Any monkey can take a trade, its what happens after you hit the enter button that is important.
Hi! Susan if you want to trade long term with less stress. trade the daily with 200HMA, 50HMA with RSI take positions in the over sold and over buy works well for me. set take profit to 50 pips take 5 positions you will be happy at end of day
@paulies1370, did I miss something or did you fail to mention your stop loss?
The long term (more than 24 hours) in forex with it's volatility and so many changes taking place seems tough. I am more comfortable with the less than 24hrs
It seems that trading is so much about a persons temperament. The only way for me to practice long tern trading was to just jump in and start managing a position. I don't know if this will be helpful, but I opened four charts of different pairs on the daily chart. I put on two moving averages and started by trading the crossovers. I didn't wait for the first new signals since that could take too long so I started in the direction of the crossover. That way I had to calculate my risk, lot size and account allocation to each position. Really has turned out to be a good assignment and introduction into long term trades.
Stick to your original plan, don't move your SL and TPs for Long term trading.
this should be my 5th be social in the forum, comment
a word from the wise: stop making excuses for your poor trading results, and be careful what you believe about trading, most of it is all lies!
My exact trade plan is quite detailed and I follow various variations of it from time to time but generally it is oriented to helping me identify and follow the larger trends when they happen. Still trying to learn not to trust the Fake out Reversals so I can simply "Go with the Flow" of what is and get off the bus when it goes as far as it will at any given moment. Learning to enjoy the ride.
Basically I follow price. High or Low in the range to determine direction back toward the middle, 3-line SMA coupled with 3 time-period MacD that shows accumulating divergence and turn points. Now I just need practice to begin building consistency. I am told this works better on the longer charts but am still learning to trust them longer term and keep my stops far enough away they don't come back to bite me.
Hello traders anyone here holding positions for at least 24 hours or longer?
Hello traders anyone here holding positions for at least 24 hours or longer?
Sometimes. It is a great feeling to wake up a bunch of pips!
Agree. Love waking up to pips.
Its always a great feeling to wake up and having a bunch of PIPS makes it better. Must be my age!
I prefer swing trading. Just last night, around 10PM I put on a trade. By 5AM the next morning I had 114 pips! For 6 hours of being in a trade, while sleeping, and waking up with that many pips, made the rest of my day easy sailing.
When I am not scalping, I use mostly D1 and H4 charts. Works best for me. As I created a database for all ALVEO pairs and rate them for the coming week. Then I only trade my top rated pairs. It is a lot of work, but it pays off.
Happy trading
wja956 not sure what analysis method your using,
Alan dies an excellent sharing of the S&W worksheet in https://apiaryfund.com/forum/trading-doesnt-have-be-difficult,
Then again you could just use the Interest rate charts https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/usd-jpy-fundamental-weekly-fo...
and posted elsewhere.
But as a 4HR and D1 trader, I'm sure you add a lot to your charting.
I cannot hold a position for over 24 hours only because it ties up my capital and I have found a make a lot more money trading the shorter time frames or scalping. But this is just me and my experience with my own account. Good luck to everyone!
Tip for long term trade:
1. Look at the 52 week Pivot High and Low if price is near one of the pivots, then look for reversal signal.
2. Once, long term plan is under way, use risk controls as one adds more positions, keep leverage numbers within the percentage of profit increases.
The leverage risk calculation uses the "Daily Risk" statistic. So if you have a $10K account then the base risk is a maximum of 0.3 lots (30 trades of 0.01 lot size) The calculation; then, is if daily risk moves to 1%, then that is !% of the total 5% daily risk, so you can increase leverage by 20% in other words if daily risk is near 5% that is 100% (5 x 20% = 100%)
Example; If daily profit is up 5% then one can increase leverage from 0.30 lots to 0.60 total lots (60 trades of 0.01 lot size)
The cool thing about having a daily risk statistic of over 20% is that Alveo will increase amount of leverage one can place. So it leaves room to scalp and do other strategies.