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Influenza, an RNA virus, causes seasonal outbreaks in which the circulating strain successfully overcomes human immunity and transmits through the population. Influenza is superb at evading host immunity through sequence variation of two antigens, hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA), that results from a high viral mutation rate; each year the predominant virus differs from the previous year. This explains why one vaccination doesn't supply lifelong immunity to flu, as it does for some other pathogens such as hepatitis B.
Typically, influenza causes mild disease: fever, headache, sore throat, and chills. However, every once in a while the seasonal flu subtype is more virulent than others are and results in higher morbidity and mortality throughout the population, an extreme example being the 1918 H1N1 pandemic flu strain, which caused approximately 50 million deaths worldwide. Dr. Trevor Bedford, assistant member of VIDD and PHSD, uses epidemiology, genetic analyses and statistical modeling to make predictions about which flu strains are likely to be successful pathogens.
"We ultimately want to find out how and why some flu strains across the world have become evolutionarily adapted to succeed while others fail," Bedford said. "It is a historical perspective on what makes a fit flu strain versus an unfit strain."
Many pathogens of current relevance have coevolved with humans for thousands of years, while others have more recent origins in host-transfer events. In either case, there is often a cat-and-mouse game in which the virus seeks to avoid escape immunity and the host seeks to block transmission of the virus. Bedford combines viral sequencing, epidemiology and host-pathogen coevolutionary data to develop statistical models for predicting new flu antigen mutations that may allow the virus to overcome preexisting host immunity or even become a pandemic threat. These data are used to plot the genetic history of viral strains (a phylogenetic tree). A typical phylogenetic evolutionary tree has staggered branches. Influenza is an outlier to this trend. With each flu season, new mutant strains replace previous viral strains, leading to a 'ladder-like' phylogenetic tree (see figure).
Graphic by M. Miner
Bedford is currently working on making seasonal predictions of influenza. Of all the different flu strains in the world, he'll try to predict the one that will outcompete the others. This sort of research can be very useful for seasonal flu vaccination design and development. He analyzes sequences that are taken from around the world at different times and then designs a statistical model that describes those sequences and can explain the observed variation. An example would be to draw blood from a patient after they were infected with flu strain 'A,' and then test if their antibodies react to different strains of virus, e.g. flu strains 'B' and 'C.'
"With these types of data," Bedford explains, "we can get a pretty good idea of whether or not a person infected with strain A will then be protected against B, C, D, etc."
In order to tackle these questions, certain information about the seasonal flu virus must be available; the phylogenetic lineages that emerge as the main circulating strains and mutations in HA and NA that promote immune evasion. Statisticians can then apply what they've learned about influenza evolutionary history to a model and then translate the model output to make predictions about future evolution.
"In order to deal with the shear amount and complexity of these phylogenetic data," said Bedford, "we use a computational technique called Markov chain Monte Carlo."
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a technique used to deal with the enormous number of phylogenetic trees that are possible. From this vast collection, MCMC effectively samples a smaller number of phylogenies that are supported by the sequence data. This technique allows integration of large sequence data sets with other experimental data. Bedford's computational methods in conjunction with epidemiological, immunological and clinical studies on influenza genetics and pathology offer an innovative and unique opportunity to work toward the collective goal of reducing the global burden of influenza disease.
"The level of focus or activity in this field is very rare," said Bedford while explaining why he came to VIDD. "I can't think of a place that is similar, with so much going on in terms of making connections and collaborations. There are resources and data here that don't exist elsewhere."
» Trevor Bedford faculty page
» Bedford lab website


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Good for the Soul
03 Tuesday Feb 2015
Posted Inspiration, Joyin
03 Tuesday Feb 2015
Posted Inspiration, Joyin
21 Wednesday Jan 2015
Posted Happiness, Inspiration, Joyin
One of my favorite sayings in my professional and personal life (and girl talk with my girlfriends!) is that "Actions speak louder than words". Show me. If you can't show me, then your words are meaningless and offer no value, merit or credibility.
Whether we realize it or not, in our everyday lives we constantly show others the stuff we are made of. Our actions can increase or devalue the level of respect we have in the eyes of loved ones, friends, peers and others.
I believe when our actions line up with who we are we free ourselves to experience and appreciate joy more fully.
What do your actions say about you?
Do your actions reflect who you believe yourself to be? If yes, fantastic! If no, reflect and determine how to align your actions with the person you choose to be, are becoming or who you want or hope to one day be.

subset: commoncrawl


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In 1966, Cokie Boggs, now National Public Radio's senior news analyst, married Steve Roberts, now a journalist and public affairs professor. As the religious one in the partnership (she was raised and remains a devout Roman Catholic; he comes from a secular Jewish family), Cokie took it upon herself to study up on Jewish faith and practices. She also persuaded Steve's parents to host their first ever Passover Seder. Now, Steve and Cokie have published the DIY Haggadah that they pulled together roughly 40 years ago.
On Monday's podcast, Vox Tablet host Sara Ivry talks to Steve and Cokie Roberts about Passover's unique ability to bridge the divide between Jews and Christians, past and present, and secular and religious—though when it comes to the question of Passover victuals, Cokie concedes that there remains much division and strife:[audio:https://www.tabletmag.com/wp-content/uploads/audio/mp3/cokie_promoclip.mp3]


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Notes on this piece…
"Moving On was entitled because of what was going on in my life while I was creating it. During that time, three significant people to me, passed away. It felt disorienting. While weaving, I felt I was just moving on. I like the three dimensionality of the piece." – Skaidrite
Skaidrite is our featured tapestry artist this month! You can read more about this here.
You can see this and more of her stunning tapestries here.


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Take my hand and spin me baby
Former BBC journalist Nicholas Jones highlights a damaging legacy of the Blair years (something equally relevant in Australia and the US):
So great is the competition for exclusive stories that correspondents have become the eager beneficiaries of the government's largesse in trailing decisions which should be announced first to parliament. Downing Street's constant push to influence the news agenda for political advantage has resulted in many more unsourced stories quoting unnamed insiders.
No wonder political reporting is treated with such cynicism when there is a generation of political journalists who have acquired the freedom to embellish quotations and use them to help manufacture their own exclusive story lines.
The unsourced "exclusive" blights many papers across the world, written by journalists with an unhealthy love of "insider" information (the former New York Times reporter Judy Miller knows a few things about this.) Editors need to constantly ask themselves why officials demand anonymity and journalists need to be more sceptical towards sources desperate to reveal sensitive information, especially in times of war. Government, the military and officialdom lie, though too few journalists seem to take this position as a given (happily spreading false propaganda as news.) How many so-called reporters blindly accepted Western spin before the war in Iraq?


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Pakistan is the greater worry because the risk of collapse is higher and because it has nuclear weapons. But Mexico is also scary: It has 100 million people on the southern doorstep of the U.S., meaning any serious instability would flood the U.S. with refugees. Mexico is also the U.S.'s second biggest trading partner.
Mexico's cartels already have tentacles that stretch across the border. The U.S. Justice Department said recently that Mexican gangs are the "biggest organized crime threat to the United States," operating in at least 230 cities and towns. Crimes connected to Mexican cartels are spreading across the Southwest. Phoenix had more than 370 kidnapping cases last year, turning it into the kidnapping capital of the U.S. Most of the victims were illegal aliens or linked to the drugs trade.
Former U.S. antidrug czar Barry McCaffrey said Mexico risks becoming a "narco-state" within five years if things don't improve. Outgoing CIA director Michael Hayden listed Mexico alongside Iran as a possible top challenge for President Obama. Other analysts say the risk is not that the Mexican state collapses, but rather becomes like Russia, a state heavily influenced by mafias.
Is this scaremongering or another real threat?


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Intesa Sanpaolo offers solutions for all actors, both public and private, which collaborate in the creation of major infrastructures and the improvement of public services.
To promote the economic growth and development of the country, Intesa Sanpaolo has six main areas of intervention:
- credit for infrastructure projects
- support for the health system, universities and academic research
- improvement of public services
- backing financial stability of the Public Administration
- financing urban development projects and area enhancement
- innovation of complex administration procedures to simplify banking operations for public bodies and companies.
Intesa Sanpaolo stands out for its integrated management of the entire chain of interaction between the Public and Private sector, through a complete package of traditional and innovative financial services ranging from commercial banking to investment banking.
Excellence in customer service is assured by team of highly qualified professionals who provide concrete solutions to the specific and expanding needs of the sector:
- financing and consultancy for clients in terms of the different local circumstances
- organisation and financing, in the form of project financing, of projects for the creation of infrastructures, public works or public services
- structuring specific mid- to long-term products, subsidised credit, real estate leasing for the public administration, and specialised factoring
- engineering and financial innovation for the renegotiation and direct management of the debt of local government entities.


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Follow My Leader
The effect of the trick:
The performer has a pack of cards and give a second pack to a spectator. They both shuffle their packs. Each of them then chooses a card from their own pack only to find that they have chosen the exact same card.
Before you begin the trick:
Use two packs of cards with different backs so they can be told apart. Tell the spectator that this trick is all about following your lead and copying what you do.
Here's how it's done:
You (the performer) shuffle and cut your pack of cards and ask the spectator to do the same with theirs.
You then both swap packs and shuffle again.
Swap over packs once more BUT as you do so, keep the pack face down as you give it back to the spectator. Do this by holding the pack with your fingers at one end and thumb at the other and as you lay it down on the table be sure you glimpse the bottom card (eg. 5 hearts).
You say: "Just follow my lead and copy what I do"
Spread out your own pack face down in a ribbon.
Take a card from the middle and look at it saying you're going to memorise it (you don't need to in fact!)
You say: "Now you take a card and look at it"
Take your face-down pack, square it up and put your chosen card on top face down.
Ask the spectator to do the same.
Take your cards and cut them so that your chosen card disappears in the pack.
Ask the spectator to swap packs again.
Tell them to take from your pack the card they memorised and put it face down on the table.
Spread the cards out on the table, face up and towards you and look for the card that you glimpsed at the beginning of the trick (5 hearts).
When you've found it, the card underneath it will be the spectator's chosen card.
Take it out, put it face down in front of you and ask the spectator to show their card.
They turn over their card.
You pause and then turn over yours.
They're identical.
"You really did do as I did!" or "You really did follow the leader!"
Firehouse Jacks Follow The Leader


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The other day when it was raining and we were all camped out on the couch I felt like making something tasty and comforting for lunch. We've had plenty of soup recently so I felt like something a little different. After a search of the cupboards and fridge I found the end of a smoked chicken fillet I needed to use, so I made this recipe up and it was a real yummy dish! Surely to be repeated again with leftover smoked chicken :) This is a great frugal recipe to use up little bits of leftovers. I kind of threw everything together so no real measurements but I will add some here for you....
Smoked Chicken, Cranberry and Pumpkin Seed 'Mac&Cheese'
About 30-40gms Butter
Leftover Smoked Chicken - chopped into bite size pieces
A good handful of dried Cranberries
2 Tbsp of Pumpkin Seeds (You could get creative here and use any seeds/nuts you might have on hand)
2-3 Tbsp of Plain Flour
1 1/2 - 2 Cups Milk (I use low fat or light blue as we call it in NZ)
A good handful of Grated Cheese (or if you are feeling really indulgent and have some on hand Brie or Camembert would be really yummy in place of 'normal' cheese)
Enough dried Pasta to feed 4 (I think I used around 3/4 cup of dried Macaroni, you could use any shape you have on hand)
Firstly set your water to boil for the pasta with a little salt. When this is boiling add the pasta give it a little stir after a minute or two to break it up and stop it sticking and boil until it is at your liking. I like it my pasta quite soft so I boil it for around 9 mins.
On a low heat In a pan melt the butter and add the Smoked Chicken, Cranberries and Pumpkin Seeds (or your alternative). Toss through the butter and cook a few mins.
Sprinke over the flour and mix everything together with a wooden spoon.
Keeping it on low heat, next in little bits at a time, add the milk and stir constantly with a wooden spoon. Adding the milk a little at a time allows you to stir it into the mix and as it comes together it shouldn't be lumpy. Don't panic if you get lumps in the beginning, once you have added all your milk by the end as long as you have continually stirred it and added only a little milk at a time they will disappear.
Let this simmer down for a minute or two and then stir through the grated cheese and a little salt and cracked pepper to taste. The sauce will start to thicken from here so keep it on the heat until it has started to thicken and 'grab' as I call it.
Toss through your pasta, serve and enjoy :)
You could choose to put this into an oven dish top it with cheese and cracked pepper and bake it in the oven at 180degC until golden brown, served with a side salad this is a yummy dinner option.
Have fun with this recipe, you could really play around with the ingredients that you add to the base of the 'Mac&Cheese'. Another one to try could be finely dice an onion and cook it down with some bacon, mushrooms and then add some frozen sweetcorn with the cheese. Whatever you have on hand at the time, this is a good recipe to use up those last little bits. You can also if you have nothing to add or feel like adding to it and want plain Macaroni and Cheese, just follow the directions and omit adding anything to the butter. I know some people add a little mustard to the mix, but I myself don't do this.
I'd love to hear what combinations you may come up with :)


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The Year of the Horse is off and racing. Best known as Chinese New Year, Lunar New Year is celebrated all over Asia, though start days vary by country.
If you were born in a horse year — 1930, 1942, 1954, 1966, 1978, 1990, 2002 and 2014 — geomancers and feng shui masters around the world have this piece of advice for 2014: Keep your head down.
According to Chinese philosophy, those who share the same zodiac sign as the year's designated animal generally have a tough 12 months.
For horses, this is not the year for career changes or marriage. But what about the rest of us?
More from GlobalPost: Lunar New Year begins in a riot of color (PHOTOS)
Well, that depends on your zodiac animal. There are 12 animals that make up the Chinese zodiac, each of which interact with the four elements of wood, fire, water and metal.
This year, for example, is a wooden horse year.
Wooden horses are considered stable, adventurous and energetic — but wood also burns. It's believed this year will therefore see more conflicts, disasters and record-high temperatures.
Cynics might say that sounds kind of like last year, and the year before that, and the year before that. ... But if you're a believer, here are five things to watch out for.
1. Don't expect to get your own way
Whether you are pushing for a pay raise or trying to resolve the Syrian crisis, it will be a tough year for negotiating deals.
"The upcoming Horse year is also a 'yang wood' year, when people will stick more to their principles and stand firm," Hong Kong feng shui practitioner Raymond Lo said.
2. Stay away from volancoes
The wooden horse incorporates the fire element so expect to see more violent volcanic eruptions and protests.
"In the last month, we've seen a lot of fire issues in the southern areas, like South Australia and, in extension to that, we'll see more in South America and south New Zealand. Because the fire energy is so strong, we'll get a lot of fire issues like volcanos and gunfire protests, which will be very violent," Sydney feng shui master Lok Tin said.
3. Travel (except to volcanoes)
This is the year for globe-trotting so starting planning vacations to some of those exotic locations on the places-I-must-visit-before-I-die list.
"Horses are legendary for their ability to run long distances on great journeys," Beijing feng shui expert Chen Shuaifu said.
4. Get married or have a baby — or both
2014 will be a "double spring" year, which the Chinese believe is a good time to get hitched or have a baby.
"This will be a very romantic year and there will be news of marriage, romance or babies for people in the 21, 23, 27, 33, 35 and 39 age groups," Auckland feng shui guru James Dong said.
"It will also be a good year, in health, luck and career for those who are aged 23, 28, 32, 35, 40, 44, 47, 52 and 56."
5. Keep your money in the bank
So, 2014 is the year you want to invest those hard-earned savings in the stock market? Maybe you should consider leaving them in the bank.
"In theory, wood produces fire. Fire produces illumination. Everything looks good for the stock market," said Brandon Chua, a feng shui master at Pure Feng Shui in Singapore.
"But I did a little divination and a very simple and answer came to me and it says: disasters."


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Recently, my family and I flew to Los Angeles for a visit, and my husband and I took our two daughters to visit Disneyland. We brought with us our youngest daughter, Katie, who is 10. Katie has a developmental handicap and can't talk because of brain damage. She is, however, neither quiet nor withdrawn. She is a noisy little girl who loves life and all people. The world is truly her oyster, and what continually amazes me is that Katie always finds pearls. She always grabs your hand to shake it when she meets you and then she starts telling you, in sign language, what it is she's doing -- visiting Mickey Mouse, riding on a bus, etc. And she tells you all about it with a big smile on her face.
The best part of our trip was the people Katie met. Everyone was kind and patient with her: the security people at the airport, the tour bus guide, the two policemen in Hollywood who stopped and showed her what was inside the trunk of their car, the staff and cast members at Disneyland, the staff at our hotel, the waitresses at restaurants and even the people waiting at the airport. I want to thank everyone for the many small acts of kindness shown to my very special daughter.
Deborah Halldorson
Edmonton, Canada


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The Holmes Brothers – Wendell Holmes (guitarist/pianist/vocalist/songwriter), Sherman Holmes (bassist/ vocalist/songwriter) are true treasures of American roots music. For more than three decades, the Homes Brothers, together with Popsy Dixon, have been captivating audiences around the world. Popsy Dixon passed on January 9th of this year, and the new member of their band, Chicago-born Ada Dyer (see her bio below), will add her own soulful voice to their three-part harmony singing.
Amanda Shaw takes the stage, the petite fiddler commands the attention of the audience with a poignant and rhythmic sound that only a Louisiana prodigy could deliver. At the transitional age of 19, Amanda Shaw is a powerful performer, composer, and arranger who has been touring nationally and internationally since she was eight years old. She has recorded three critically-acclaimed albums, won a Big Easy Award for Best Female Entertainer and has even had two feature roles in Disney movies.
This cross over star at the height of her powers, Grammy Award-winner Rosanne Cash (the eldest daughter of the late Johnny Cash and his first wife) has just come off two all star tribute concerts – the Woody Guthrie Centennial and the Rolling Stones at Carnegie Hall. With 11 #1 country hit singles, 21 Top-40 country hit singles, and two gold records, this singer-songwriter draws on many genres, including folk, rock, pop, and blues. At her Music Hall debut, she will be performing with her husband Grammy Award winner John Leventhal.
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Mailing Address: P.O. Box 1202, Truro, MA 02666
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text: DigitalOscar de la Renta to Receive Artistry of Fashion AwardBy Stephanie Murg|September 4, 2012 ShareBy Stephanie Murg|September 4, 2012 Share New York Fashion Week gets underway tomorrow with a few presentations and a lone early-bird show (Natsuko Kanno's shape-shifting 4 Corners of a Circle), but the real kickoff will be a Lincoln Center luncheon in honor of Oscar de la Renta. The designer is the recipient of the 2012 Couture Council Award for Artistry of Fashion, an honor bestowed annually by the Museum at the Fashion Institute of Technology's Couture Council. Past recipients include Ralph Rucci, Alber Elbaz, Karl Lagerfeld, and Valentino. "Oscar de la Renta is a true fashion superstar who has long served as one of the greatest ambassadors of American style," said Valerie Steele, director and chief curator of the Museum at FIT, in a statement issued by the school. "His clothes, which draw on the heritage of Spain and the French haute couture, as well as on the dynamism of contemporary New York high fashion, convey a sense of luxury and drama that have earned him acclaim throughout the world." Sharehttp://adweek.it/2l3cZTM copy Adweek Adweek


text: Hi all, I am currently running a trace to try and identify long running queries...i am a bit confused about which time i should be looking at- CPU or Duration?!?! I am capturing RPC: Completed and SQL: BatchCompleted. Some of the queries/procedure calls coming though have very low CPU time (0 in some cases) but the duration is 15 seconds plus! I really dont understand what is going on! What should i be most concerned about?!?! Thanks, Ben 'I reject your reality and substitute my own' - Adam Savage


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Computer Security Course
Ran: March 2012 – April 2012
This course was about computer security. Computer security is a huge and complicated topic, so to keep it manageable the primary goals were:
- To understand some of the security threats that exist in the big scary world, as well as the resources you might want to protect
- To make better security choices without being terrified into paralysis
- To have you identify, analyse and improve aspects of computer security as they relate to your own life
The course was directed towards non-experts with lots of interaction and a friendly, non-intimidating atmosphere.
Get Organized!
Ran: 5 sessions from February 2012 – March 2012
Whether you're a student, an activist, working full-time, or job-hunting, it can be really hard to stay on top of everything, especially if your planner, workspace, budget, or files aren't working for you – or don't exist!
Organization – or a lack thereof – affects us on a practical level, but is also about self-care on a physiological and emotional level.
This series aimed to cover some basic ideas for organizing five key areas of daily life: time, space, stuff, information, and money; and provided participants with some tools – and time – to start getting yourself organized.
Facilitated by aspiring professional organizer and generally organized person Laura McDonald.
Social Purpose Business
Ran: March 2012
Social business is an innovative new organizational model that attempts to retool the conventional business model to serve a social purpose. Or is it a way to restructure the traditional non-profit to be more sustainable and efficient? However you look at it, social business is a fascinating idea – combining business practices with the goal of making a difference instead of making a profit. This series of four workshops explored the topic of social business from a few perspectives.


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Related videos
Watch Yemi Alade's Kom Kom Official Music Video ft. Flavour, now playing on Nigeria Music Network!
Effyzzie Music presents the music video for "Kom Kom" by Africa's leading diva Yemi Alade featuring high-life royal Flavour.
The contemporary high-life gem "Kom Kom" produced by hit-producer Masterkraft, is housed on Yemi Alade's chart-topping sophomore album "Mama Africa: The Diary of an African Woman" propelled by the massive success of previous singles "Na Gode" and "Ferrari".
The arresting visual for the praised duet is directed by award-winning cinematographer Clarence Peters.
Download on iTunes: http://smarturl.it/MamaAfricaDeluxe
Buy Physical Copy: http://smarturl.it/MamaAfricaDeluxeCD
Download on GooglePlay: http://smarturl.it/MamaAfricaGoogleplay


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Rihanna Postpones Boston Concert Tonight at TD Garden
Rihanna is postponing tonight's show at the TD Garden in Boston. She has been battling laryngitis. Live Nation has put out the following statement:
"Unfortunately, following her sold out concert on Friday, Rihanna has contracted laryngitis and per doctor's instruction is unable to perform this evening."
-Live Nation
There is no word yet about when the new date will be announced.


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I am 225% an unashamed, unabashed, ridiculously overboard Miranda Lambert fan. She's from Texas. She's around 5'3″. She's blonde. She loves to drink. Clearly we are meant to be BFFs. She just needs to meet me.
You won't be surprised to know I have been to her Pink Pistol store in Lindale, own multiple Junk Gypsy shirts with her lyrics and of course every single album she's released. I know every word, have a Miranda Lambert station on Pandora and have seen her live three times, including once at Billy Bob's, which was phenomenal. Of the songs that have fortunately made it on the radio, Gunpowder and Lead, Heart Like Mine, Only Prettier and Mama's Broken Heart are my favorites. However, there are so many of her older songs that didn't make it on air that I play in heavy rotation: Guilty in Here from 2007's Crazy Ex-Girlfriend and I Wanna Die from 2005's Kerosene being the top two; and from her last album, 2011's Four the Record (her most successful to date), Fine Tune (dirty, dirty song y'all!), Same Old You and Easy Living.
150+ words and I've not even touched the two Pistol Annies albums yet. It's a sickness, I know.
Her newest album, Platinum, came out about a month ago and if it was an actual CD, I would have already worn it out. The first track released was Automatic, which country radio has successfully beat into the ground repeatedly. Although it's a cute song and very timely, in my opinion it's not the best song on Platinum. It was, however, a guaranteed hit, which was good publicity for the upcoming album. I am in marketing; I get it.