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|Daniel Silverstone <firstname.lastname@example.com>
|2014-06-22 18:52:11 +0100
|Daniel Silverstone <email@example.com>
|2014-06-22 18:52:11 +0100
|c6044dfefab8fb1d0ff641ef097dc0028748302e (patch)
|ec1cde0b639da0a1f8cc02149af11c94bcbc3fdd (diff)
A bunch of notes
4 files changed, 210 insertions, 0 deletions
diff --git a/notes/accelerometer.mdwn b/notes/accelerometer.mdwn
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+++ b/notes/accelerometer.mdwn
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+Using the accelerometer in the pebble
+After reasonably extensive testing I determined that the accelerometer in the
+pebble is sufficiently noisy that we may as well drop the bottom 2 to 4 bits
+of the signal for our actigraphic work. This takes us from +/- 12 bits to
+an 8 bit value (since we do not care about the direction) for each channel.
+The accelerometer is a 3 axis beastie so we have to then compute the magnitude
+of the force vector which is essentially `sqrt(x*x+y*y+z*z)` (hence the sign of
+the data is irrelevant since we're squaring everything). Conveniently this
+takes us to a useful data range of 0-255 for the magnitude of the force vector
+(it's actually 0-221 I think).
+The pebble is a low power microcontroller so we want to use an approximating
+integer square root function in the above calculation. There's a good 4 cycle
+per bit algorithm on <http://www.finesse.demon.co.uk/steven/sqrt.html> written
+by Wilco Dijkstra at ARM. While the algorithm is clearly written for arm32 we
+can reuse it in thumb2 without too much pain. That it is in C is for the best.
+The Pebble accelerometer runs (at its slowest) at 10Hz assuming we want to
+subscribe to the data service (which we do). 10Hz is great because it means
+the highest frequency noise we will get will be 5Hz which is only a little less
+than twice the frequency we want to limit at. This means we can use a one pole
+IIR to low-pass filter the magnitude stream so that we reduce the noise to
+something manageable with very little CPU.
+IIRs typically are written in the floating point domain. Ours is integer and
+we achieve a fairly good IIR by making each input sample count for a 25% shift
+which we can do with some shifts and adds and subs (nice and efficient). In
+theory this IIR has a horrible Fc but it seems to work for the data we're
+working with and thus I'm happy. (Nominally such an IIR has an Fc of something
+awful like 0.05 rather than the 0.33 we'd ideally aim for) yet somehow it seems
+to behave more like the ideal than we were expecting (and it's CHEAP to run).
+All this results in a (time-delta,smoothed-magnitude) tuple stream coming out
+at somewhere around 10 per second. Some will be missing because of the watch
+doing extra work and some will be missing due to the vibrator running (such
+samples are best discarded).
+In some debug modes, it's possible to get this tuple stream out of the watch on
+a data logging channel.
diff --git a/notes/reporting.mdwn b/notes/reporting.mdwn
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+++ b/notes/reporting.mdwn
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+Reporting all this to the phone
+Obviously recording data is only useful if we report it to the phone so that it
+can be recorded and analysed over time. To do this we use the Pebble data
+logging API. Since having large infrequent logging dumps is worthwhile, we can
+limit ourselves to a data logging packet once a minute during active phases
+(detecting steps) and once every 5 to 10 minutes during idle phases. Since
+sleeping is a unilaterally non-interacting state to be in, we can limit the
+actigraphy logging during sleep even more if we choose.
+In theory if we're interested in logging steps such that we have the time (to
+the ms) when the step occurs then we should expect to log step events at
+ca. 2Hz. In practice humans are not interested in data at that level of detail
+for day-to-day readings. Instead we can group the day into one minute epochs
+and simply log the step data for a minute into that. We don't really need more
+than N steps in that epoch to be recorded. This boils down to a very small
+packet, perhaps a time_t and a type marker and a step counter. Obviously we
+can refresh the screen more often than that.
+Idle phases (i.e. where we're not recording any data) could be less frequent
+since clearly you're not doing anything so there's nothing to log. If we
+extend the log packet to be two time_t's (start and end) the type marker and
+the step counter, then we're able to bunch up idle periods and just log one
+idle period when we detect a step for the first time in a while.
+Sleep is a different beastie, we clearly want to record per epoch sleep states
+because we want to see if we go into and out of light and deep sleep
+frequently, but we also want to have that data not clog the link. As such,
+again simply logging the start and end time and the type of sleep when we
+transition between sleep phases would be good enough and result in maybe 20 to
+50 packets per night which is lower frequency than daytime.
+Add in a need to record various events such that further analysis can be done
+at a later date and we have a data logging packet shape of:
+ typedef struct {
+ time_t period_start;
+ time_t period_end;
+ uint16_t type;
+ uint16_t value;
+ } datalog_packet_t;
+Not all types of packet will end up needing both time_ts, but we need to have
+a consistent byte size for the datalogging packets and making it a multiple of
+4 bytes makes my inner geek happy.
diff --git a/notes/sleep-actigraphy.mdwn b/notes/sleep-actigraphy.mdwn
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..32861b8
--- /dev/null
+++ b/notes/sleep-actigraphy.mdwn
@@ -0,0 +1,71 @@
+Sleep Actigraphy
+This is a much discussed topic. There are many papers out there on sleep
+actigraphy using wrist-mounted accelerometers. Many of the fitness bands
+support "sleep monitoring". The Jawbone Up also supports a smart-alarm feature
+where it tries to wake you close to your desired alarm time by vibrating when
+you should already be nearly awake.
+This is a feature I really wanted to ensure I had in *Askel ja Uni* so here's
+where I got to...
+Sleep is typically split into REM and non-REM (NREM) sleep stages. In
+addition, NREM is split into three stages (N1, N2 and N3) where N1 is very
+close to wakefulness and N3 is very deep sleep. Sleep goes in cycles, from N1
+to N3, then back toward N1, entering REM before N1, then N1 to N3 etc.
+You typically have more REM in the later stages of your sleep period and more
+N3 in the early stages of your sleep period. This means that when you're in N1
+toward the end of your sleep period (effectively when you want to wake up) you
+are in the ideal state to be woken by the app.
+REM (and N3) are characterised by stillness in the body. N3 because you are
+very deeply asleep (hardest point to wake you) and REM because otherwise you
+might cause yourself damage by acting out your dreams (most annoying time to be
+woken). As such, we can look for movement in the sleep period to indicate how
+asleep you are, and then run the alarm at the right moment when you're close to
+wakefulness (N1 or even 'awake') in your chosen alarm period.
+Characterising sleep with the Pebble turned out to be really hard. Some papers
+recommended correlating the actigraphic data with polysomnographs or other
+detectors such as oxygen consumption detectors in order to calibrate the
+actigraphic detection of sleep states. Clearly I don't have access to that
+kind of equipment so instead I relied on correlating my results with that of
+the Jawbone Up worn next to the Pebble through five or six long sleep cycles.
+Then, I combined it with ideas gleaned from a large number of google searches
+on sleep actigraphy and came up with the following heuristic for estimating
+sleep modes. I decided to limit my sleep mode estimations to AWAKE vs. LIGHT
+vs. DEEP sleep (the same characterisations as the Jawbone uses) and this is
+what I came up with:
+1. Gather the total absolute movement deltas in 1 minute epochs
+2. Use thresholding to characterise an epoch as MAYBE-AWAKE, MAYBE-LIGHT and
+ MAYBE-DEEP at (<10 (deep), <50 (light), rest awake).
+3. Put these maybe values into a 20 value history buffer (prefilled with awake
+ since clearly you start awake).
+4. Count the number of MAYBE-LIGHT and MAYBE-DEEP entries in the history
+ buffer. If there are > 16 of them, then characterise this epoch as
+ 'asleep', otherwise characterise it as 'awake'.
+5. If we're 'asleep' then sum the history buffer, giving deep the value 0,
+ light the value 1 and awake the value 2. If the buffer totals 0, 1 or 2
+ then we're in 'deep sleep' (this allows for up to 2 light sleep epochs
+ or one "false" awake epoch).
+6. Record each epoch along with either awake, light or deep sleep.
+Note, this algorithm does mean that we cannot characterise the first 16 minutes
+as sleep but since in general it takes me 20-30 minutes to properly fall asleep
+after pressing the sleep button, this seems okay to me.
+Finally, within the window for the smart alarm we can simply start to vibrate
+when we detect we are in the light or awake states. Obviously if we don't
+reach that state by the time the alarm is due, we should start to vibrate
+anyway in case we're rising towards N1 but haven't started moving yet.
diff --git a/notes/step-detection.mdwn b/notes/step-detection.mdwn
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..6635ab2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/notes/step-detection.mdwn
@@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
+Step Detection
+From the (time-delta, smoothed-magnitude) tuple stream we can create a sequence
+of magnitude deltas. These tell us the change in acceleration over time. We
+do not need to care about the exact direction of the acceleration vector since
+we're looking for jolts (local maxima) in the vector magnitude (which indicate
+a possible step event).
+By viewing graphs of the delta vs. time, we determined that step events were
+best detected by looking for a +ve to -ve zero-crossing of the delta. This
+gives us a 'maybe step' event. Two such events separated by a suitable time
+period gives us a likely step event which we then record. If a likely step
+occurs directly after a maybe step then we also count the maybe step since we
+can retroactively assume that the maybe step counts too.
+Human walking pace is typically somewhere between 0.8 and 2.5 Hz. This also
+covers the low end of jogging/running which typically maxes out at 3Hz. This
+means that the time-difference between maybe-step events should be somewhere
+between 333 and 1200 milliseconds. Since we're receiving events in 1 second
+packets and also since I (as a very unfit person) seem to walk around 1.8Hz or
+stroll at around 1.2Hz I chose limits of 275 to 825 milliseconds (1.2-3.5Hz).
+Looking at the spread of times for steps I take when I consider myself to be
+walking at a steady pace, I decided that a window of +/- 150ms from the current
+'expected' gap would allow detection of likely steps without over-detecting
+(false steps) being too numerous. (The "slow" end might seem very slow but
+frankly if I'm walking below around 1.2Hz then it's hardly exercise and I don't
+think it should count :-)
+As such, we maintain an expected gap value which starts life at 500ms and will
+be migrated toward the detected gap values with a similar IIR to that used to
+smooth the magnitude data stream. Also the expected gap will be capped
+minimally at 425ms (-150ms => 275ms) and maximally at 675ms (+150ms => 825ms)
+On a test dataset I took where I walked approximately 0.6 miles in
+approximately 11 minutes covering around 1100 to 1150 steps, the algorithms
+described in the accelerometer sheet and this result in a recorded 965 steps
+which close to the 90% goal I set myself. For reference, my Jawbone Up (worn
+on the same wrist next to the Pebble) registered 1180 steps for that journey
+which is better, but also overreading. Most documentation I find says that the
+Jawbone tends to do well on short journeys but will overread by up to 25% on
+longer ones, so I think that it's reasonable that my values are underreading.
+In conclusion, we're only recording ca. 80-85% of the steps on the test
+journeys but since the purpose of this is to measure my relative activity and
+to encourage more exercise by letting me graph my data against various other
+bits of my life, I'm happy with this bit.


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In November 2005, Roy Keane's career at Manchester United came to an abrupt end. After 12-and-a-half years, 480 games, 51 goals, seven league titles, four FA Cups, the Champions League and an unprecedented treble, Keane departed Old Trafford in acrimonious circumstances. All these years later, and the wounds still don't appear to have healed. Alex Ferguson and Keane, the driving …Read More »
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Rio Ferdinand On Why Roy Keane 'Killed' Juan Veron's Man United Career
Former Manchester United defender Rio Ferdinand has outlined that he believes midfielder Juan Sebastian Veron would have been a success at Old Trafford had Roy Keane not been there. The Argentine joined United in 2001 for a then British record of 28.1 million and despite initially thriving he failed to adapt to the speed and intensity of the Premier League …Read More »
Roy Keane On Why He Adapted His Game Mid-Way Through His Career
Roy Keane wasn't the most prolific of goalscoring midfielders during his time at Manchester United, but putting the ball in the net was never the former captain's focus. Keane appeared on a special edition of Sky Sports' Monday Night Football where Jamie Carragher and Gary Neville analysed classic games from the 2000/2001 season, including United's 6-1 win over Arsenal. The …Read More »
Host Of Players Praise Young Irish Keeper's Ingenious Isolation Training
Manchester United goalkeeper David De Gea was one of a host of players to praise a young Irish stopper after a video of him training in isolation went viral on Twitter. Honing your footballing skills can be difficult for any player given the current circumstances, but the young Leeds fan, who is the son of Irish journalist Sarah-Jayne Tobin, got …Read More »
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DNA profiles from two women killed in Grangegorman nearly 20 years ago were found on a jacket belonging to murder accused Mark Nash in 2009, a jury has heard.
Mark Nash (aged 42) who has last addresses at Prussia Street and Clonliffe Road in Dublin, has pleaded not guilty at the Central Criminal Court to the murder of Sylvia Shields (aged 60) and Mary Callanan (aged 61) between March 6 and March 7, 1997.
The trial has heard that the two women were living in sheltered accommodation attached to St Brendan's Hospital in Grangegorman at the time.
Counsel for the State, Ms Una Ni Raifeartaigh SC, today called Dr Linda Williams, who told the court that she has been involved in DNA analysis and has worked in the DNA section of Forensic Science Ireland (FSI) since February 2003.
Dr Williams told the court how on September 29 in 2009 she received three self sealed plastic bags containing thread and buttons belonging to the right cuff of Mark Nash's black pin-striped velvet jacket from Dr Brid McBride, also of the FSI.
Dr Williams told the court that she realised the threads from the black velvet jacket should be kept separate from everything else and she separated the threads from these buttons for DNA extraction.
"DNA is a chemical or a complex molecule that is present in the body, its present in the skin cells and stays the same throughout your life.
With the exception of identical twins, no two people have the same DNA, Dr Williams explained to the jury of six men and five women.
Describing the procedure she took with the threads in 2009, to the court, Dr Williams explained she extracted DNA from the button threads and they were then compared to the profiles of Sylvia Shields and Mary Callanan.
Dr Williams told the court, the second step she took in the lab was "DNA quantification", to assess the "quantity and quality" of the sample.
Dr Williams then told Miss Ni Raifeartaigh that the third step she took was "DNA amplification".
The court heard how Dr Williams placed the threads into a tray and cut them open with sterile blades and then put the threads from the three buttons into a tube, but not the buttons "to maximise her chance of generating a profile."
Dr Williams told Miss Ni Raifeartaigh she got a profile match from the threads but she couldn't say from "which set of threads it came from."
"The profile taken from the threads matched Sylvia Shields' DNA profile," Dr Williams told the court.
Miss Ni Raifeartaigh asked Dr Williams if the profile generated from the threads was a "full or partial profile"?
"From the threads, it was a full profile with some minor elements" replied Dr Williams.
The court then heard from Dr Williams how a DNA profile obtained from a "particle" found inside the seam of the right sleeve of the black velvet jacket, also matched the deceased Mary Callanan.
Earlier in the day, Dr Brid McBride, who was working in the biology section of Forensic Science Ireland (FSI) for the last 25 years told Ms Ni Raifeartaigh that on September 24 2009, she examined the right sleeve of a black pin-striped velvet jacket for the microscopic presence of blood staining, belonging to the accused Mark Nash, as part of a cold case review.
Dr McBride told the court today: "I hand picked some of the remaining sewing thread, focusing on the right sleeve, I unpicked the seam and examined the lining inside the right sleeve with a low powered microscope and took samples."
Dr McBride told the court about finding "a small brown hard particle" inside the seam of the right sleeve of a black pin striped velvet jacket belonging to the accused on September 24, 2009.
Dr McBride told the court: "I observed a small brown hard particle, it was inside the seam, it would not have been exposed to air and I did a KM test for the presence of blood staining".
"I tested the actual particle and when it was tested, I got a faint KM positive reaction, with a speck inside it of 1 mm, which was indicative of blood staining," continued Dr McBride.
"It didn't look like a blood flake, it had the appearance that it was more of dried tissue."
"I removed the particle with a sterile forceps and placed it on a mini tape" she continued.
Dr McBride told the court, she did a number of other samples on the jacket but "didn't detect any other blood stains".
The same day, Dr McBride gave the "mini tape lifts" to Dr Williams for DNA profiling.
Today Dr Williams told the court she generated a profile from the "small particle, which was like a small piece of grit" and it matched Mary Callanan's profile.
The court previously heard from Mr Brendan Grehan SC, when opening the prosecution's case, how in July 2009, "a spectacular breakthrough" was made in relation to the black velvet jacket with new tests and how DNA belonging to Ms Shields and Ms Callanan, was found on it.
Earlier in the day, forensic scientist Dr Maureen Smith, now retired from FSI, was re examined by Mr Grehan about the chances of contamination on the black velvet jacket.
The court previously heard that the jacket belonging to the accused and heavily blood stained clothing and bedding found at the scene were examined in the same room at a laboratory six weeks apart.
Dr Smith told Mr Grehan it was her opinion that contamination was "not a danger in this case."
When asked by Mr Grehan about a previous contamination incident in FSI in 2013, she replied: "The contamination issue was that a DNA profile found in one case, matched another individual in another case, the items were examined in the same room on the same day, they were two unrelated cases, it was picked up and recorded in the report."
The court also heard that the prosecution have nearly finished giving their evidence.
The trial continues.


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Liverpool are set to embark on a crucial few months. The Reds are in the midst of a title challenge at Anfield, with Man City and Tottenham also in the mix.
It's been a remarkable season for the club, and of course, it could be about to get even better. If they're able to seal the Premier League title, Jurgen Klopp's men will go down as a historic group of players at one of Europe's most historic clubs.
However, for some, their spell at Liverpool may culminate this season, and for one player, that could come as a result of an impending return.
A recent report from the Telegraph has indicated that Liverpool are hoping for Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain to be back in action by April, with the midfielder seeking to return from an injury sustained last term.
That means that he could have an impact this season, but realistically, the Reds will be looking to get The Ox back into the team with a long-term vision. Next season, certainly, you'd expect him to become a regular once more.
Significantly, though, in his absence, Liverpool's midfield has been upgraded in a big way, and so there could be too many bodies available for Jurgen Klopp. As a result, perhaps a big sacrifice could be forthcoming, and Adam Lallana seems like an obvious casualty following the return of Oxlade-Chamberlain.
Of course, Lallana's been on a tough run of form over the last few years, with the Englishman succumbing to the numerous injury problems that he's been dealt. Early on in Jurgen Klopp's reign, the midfielder looked like the perfect player for the club. He was hardworking, he was technical, he was quick, he truly had it all. However, since that point, it's all been downhill.
He's actually been unavailable for much of Jurgen Klopp's tenure, and when he has been fit, he just hasn't looked good enough. Barring a couple of strong moments from him, the majority of his game time this season just hasn't resulted in much of anything. Indeed, as per Who Scored, he hasn't picked up a single assist so far this season, whilst his passing and shooting stats aren't much better. Obviously he's still a talented player, but it's clear that Lallana is just a little bit below the level required at Anfield.
It wouldn't have been a surprise to see him leave the club last summer or, indeed, in January – but it wasn't to be. He still does have a role to play at Liverpool, as proven by his start last weekend, but upon the return of The Ox, the reality is that his opportunities will only dissipate further. He's only managed 3 league appearances this season as it is, and that's not good enough for a player of his experience.
Could he still do a job in the Premier League? That makes sense, but for Liverpool at present, he's nothing more than a rotational option. He may well lose that role when Oxlade-Chamberlain returns, and so at that point, a departure must be on the cards.
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Conjugarte Worksheet Answers Worksheets for all from Conjugate Acid Base Pairs Worksheet, source: bonlacfoods. SpanishDict is devoted to improving our site based on user feedback and introducing new and innovative features that will continue to help people learn and love the Spanish language. Conjugarte: Future+ ( Women Artists Edition) Published on Dec 28, Draw beautiful art from Spanish and Latin American women artists and practice verb conjugations at the same time! Verbs Worksheets Verb Conjugation Worksheets.
Science math history literature technology health law business All Sections. Conjugarte answers. Nosotros nosotras vosotros vosotras ellos ellas e Uds. 8th Grade Common Core Language Worksheets. Pdf FREE PDF DOWNLOAD NOW! Answered Aug 25, · Author has 592 answers and 720. Click " Add to Cart" to purchase Conjugarte: Present Subjunctive for only $ 8. To place accents over vowels, move the caret to the right of the vowel and then hit the down arrow key. Conjugarte: Practice Spanish Verb Conjugation Art - YouTube # 1713733.
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Imperfect: Regular ( Meaning change in preterite). Answers: 1- 8 27. All worksheets in this section help a student develop their language skills. Lesson plans, worksheets, Powerpoins, printables, texts, audio and more. Conjugarte: Spanish Present Tense. Spanish Days and Months Crossword ( with Answers) Spanish Classroom Activities, Teaching Spanish.
Preterite: pedir yo pedi ( accent on the i) tú/ usted pediste él/ ella pidio ( accent on the e) nosotros pedimos vosotros pedisteis ( accent on the i) ellos/ ellas/ ustedes pidieron almorzar yo almorce ( accent on the e) tú. Rather than enjoying a good book with a cup of tea in the afternoon, instead they juggled with some infectious bugs inside their computer. Simple past tense ( preterite)? Ratar ron r ntar ilar r nó e is é e s- on ue k ble ry- e- e nd- / ilé s ó is r e s té é nseñó is on is r var s on nó e ié tó s e s ó ió is nseñé e s r ron is. A website designed for Spanish language teachers. Adding activities to the CONJUGUEMOS library. 26 PDF ebooks: Mapa Cool Conjugarte: Present, Latin American Edition, Preterite & Imperfect, Future+, Present Subjunctive Conjugart: French Present Tense.
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The worksheets are based on items entered into a text grid using the Grid Match component of TaskMagic3. The conjugate base of an acid is formed when the acid donates a proton. This is the language worksheets section.
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The name speaks for itself: Bwindi means 'forest' so it means the 'impenetrable forest'. Or even more appropriate might be its nickname 'land of darkness'. In this place, trees, bushes and plants fight over every inch of land.
But even more important: sunlight. It's survival of the fittest here. Bwindi is a fortress of green, unhospitable to humans. This is why animals have thrived and survived here for so long.
The absolute star of the park is the mountain gorilla. Scientists believe that this subspecies of the eastern gorilla has lived in the Bwindi forest for at least 25.000 years. It's an area with surprisingly little impact from humans, because the Ugandan government declared a large part of it a protected area back in 1932, and since then it has been expanded even further. Even today, the impact from humans is kept to a minimum.
The forest grows at an altitude of between 1.160 to 2.607 metres, on the hills of the Rift Valley. Bwindi is only 25 kilometres away from Virunga National Park, which is famous for its mountain gorillas. Mgahinga National Park , a smaller park in Uganda, also has a group of mountain gorillas, but Bwindi still has four groups. Mgahinga belongs to the Virunga mountain range, which also includes Virunga National Park and Volcanoes National Park (also known as Parc National des Volcans).
Some of the local people of the area, the Batwa (sometimes referred to as Batwa Pygmies) were violently evicted from the park in 1991 when the Bwindi forest officially became a national park. They were not compensated or supported at the time, and are now forced to live in squalid conditions at the edge of the park. Their traditional hunting methods have been banned, and they are not even allowed to enter the forest. Thankfully, there are talks in progress to allow the Batwa to return to their traditional land, both here and at Virunga National park.
Best time to visit:
There are two good periods to visit Bwindi: In January and February, and June to September. These are drier months and so the dirt tracks are easier to navigate. Though it can still rain in those times, and the tracks still get hard to walk on.
From March until May it's hot, rainy and humid. The same goes for October to November, when roads are hard to use, and the park can become inaccessible.
The temperature ranges from 22 to 30 degrees Celsius, both in dry and wet seasons.
Please Note!
Only a limited number of people can visit the gorillas in the park. This means you have to arrange your permit beforehand. You can do this at the Uganda Wildlife Authority in Kampala, or you can book a trip with a travel agency that can arrange the permit for you.
It's also possible you will be denied access if you have even the slightest cold or a runny nose. This is to protect the gorillas from diseases that have little effect on humans, but can make them very sick or even kill them. So make sure you are in good health when you want to go here.
More information: www.bwindiforestnationalpark.com


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you indicate that you understand and intend these terms and conditions to be
the legal equivalent of a signed, written contract and equally binding, and
that you accept such terms and conditions as a condition of viewing any and all
Moody's information that becomes accessible to you [after clicking "I AGREE"] (the
"Information"). References herein to "Moody's" include Moody's
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2. You
acknowledge and agree that Moody's credit ratings: (i) are current opinions of
the future relative creditworthiness of securities and address no other risk; and
(ii) are not statements of current
or historical fact or recommendations to purchase, hold or sell particular
securities. Moody's credit ratings and
publications are not intended for retail investors, and it would be reckless
and inappropriate for retail investors to use Moody's credit ratings and
publications when making an investment decision. No
warranty, express or implied, as the accuracy, timeliness, completeness,
merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose of any Moody's credit
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3. To the extent permitted by law, Moody's and its directors,
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the City and County of New York, Borough of Manhattan.
London, 24 March 2020 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) has today downgraded to
Baa2 from Baa1 the Corporate Family Rating (CFR) of Thames Water Utilities
Ltd. (Thames Water). Concurrently, Moody's has
downgraded Thames Water Utilities Finance Plc's senior secured (Class
A) debt rating to Baa1 from A3 and its subordinated (Class B) debt rating
to Ba1 from Baa3. The outlook on the ratings is stable.
Moody's has confirmed the B1 senior secured rating of Thames Water
(Kemble) Finance PLC (Kemble Water). The outlook on the rating
is stable.
These rating actions conclude the rating review initiated on 20 December
2019, following publication by the Water Services Regulation Authority
(Ofwat), the economic regulator for water companies in England and
Wales, of its final determination for the forthcoming five-year
regulatory period, commencing on 1 April 2020 (AMP7).
A complete list of affected ratings appears at the end of this press release.
Today's rating actions follow Thames Water's decision to accept
Ofwat's final determination for AMP7. The downgrades take into
account (1) the significant cut in allowed wholesale returns to ca.
2.42% real in cash terms, compared with 3.6%
in the current AMP6 regulatory period, (2) material revenue reductions
as a result of operational underperformance in AMP6, (3) challenging
performance targets in AMP7 that Moody's expects to result in further
financial penalties, and (4) credit negative changes to financial
policy, as evidenced by an increase in RPI-linked debt and
swap restructurings that weaken the effectiveness of Thames Water's
Moody's expects that Thames Water will have an adjusted interest coverage
ratio (AICR) of around 1.3x over the AMP7 period and leverage,
measured by adjusted net debt to regulatory capital value (RCV) above
80%, weaker than Moody's revised guidance for a Baa1
CFR of at least 1.4x and no more than 80%, respectively.
Thames Water's Baa2 CFR reflects, as positives, (1)
stable cash flow from the provision of monopoly water and wastewater services
under a well-established, transparent and predictable regulatory
regime, (2) debt structural features, including distribution
lock-up covenants, dedicated liquidity, and intercreditor
and security arrangements, which provide additional creditor protection
for event risk and enhance recovery prospects in an event of default,
and (3) lower average cost of debt and less risk in relation to derivative
contracts than highly-leveraged peers.
However, the CFR is constrained by (1) relatively high financial
leverage, (2) a track record of weak operational performance with
associated financial penalties and (3) regulatory and financing decisions
that temporarily increase headroom to Thames Water's dividend lock-up
covenants in AMP7, weakening creditor protections.
Thames Water has recently executed GBP2.1 billion of new RPI-linked
swaps that will allow it to defer a portion of interest payable from AMP7
into later periods, improving cash flow and Moody's AICR at
the price of increasing the mismatch between the company's CPI-linked
RCV and RPI-linked debt in AMP8. Moody's regards this
as indicative of an increased tolerance for financial risk, a credit
The Baa1 rating of the Class A bonds reflects the strength of the debt
protection measures for this class of bonds and their senior position
in the cash waterfall and following any enforcement of security,
and the issuer's low probability of default. However, the
rating of the Class A bonds also factors in super-senior obligations
which would rank ahead of the senior notes in a default scenario,
as well as the subordinated Class B debt which, while contractually
subordinated, serve to reduce the operator's financial flexibility.
The Ba1 rating of the Class B bonds reflects the same default probability
as factored into the Baa2 CFR but also Moody's expectation of a
heightened loss severity for the Class B debt following any default,
given its subordinated position.
Confirmation of Kemble's B1 senior secured rating reflects a deterioration
in the credit quality of the consolidated Kemble group, offset by
management action to increase near-term cash flows and reduce the
risk of dividend lock-ups at Thames Water.
In addition to the considerations for Thames Water, the rating of
Kemble reflects (1) higher leverage because of GBP1.1 billion of
additional debt at the holding company, (2) the terms of the Thames
Water financing structure, which includes various cash-trapping
provisions, and (3) provisions of Thames Water's licence that
could limit the operating company's ability to make payments to
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that, despite
operational underperformance and expenditure above regulatory allowances,
Thames Water will achieve an AICR of around 1.3x, on average,
over AMP7, and maintain net debt/RCV of 80-85%,
including Moody's adjustments.
Thames Water's ratings could be upgraded if the company achieved
significantly improved operational performance, supporting an AICR
sustainably above 1.4x and net debt/RCV below 80%.
The ratings could be downgraded if operational performance was below Moody's
expectations, and in particular if its AICR was expected to fall
below 1.2x, or if net debt/RCV rose above 85%.
Given structural subordination, an upgrade of Kemble is not anticipated.
Kemble's rating could be downgraded if the rating of Thames Water were
downgraded, or if weaker cash flow at Thames Water meant that financial
or rating triggers limiting dividend payments were more likely to be triggered.
Financial triggers in Thames Water's financing structure include (1) Class
A RCV gearing in excess of 75% or senior RCV gearing in excess
of 85%, or (2) Class A adjusted interest cover ratio below
1.30x or senior adjusted interest cover ratio below 1.10x.
Rating triggers include a Class A or corporate rating below Baa3/BBB-
from any agency.
In addition, downward rating pressure at Thames Water and Kemble
Water could result from (1) adoption of more aggressive financial policies,
(2) a significant increase in business risk for the sector as a result
of legal and/or regulatory changes leading to a reduction in the stability
and predictability of regulatory earnings, which in each case are
not offset by other credit-strengthening measures, or (3)
unforeseen funding difficulties.
Thames Water is the largest of the 10 water and sewerage companies in
England and Wales by both RCV and number of customers served. The
company provides drinking water to around nine million customers and sewerage
services to around 15 million customers in London and the Thames Valley.
Kemble Water is the financing subsidiary of Kemble Water Finance Limited,
which owns Thames Water through intermediate holding companies including
Thames Water Limited.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Regulated Water Utilities
published in June 2018. Please see the Rating Methodologies page
on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
..Issuer: Thames Water Utilities Finance Plc
....Backed senior secured MTN Program,
Downgraded to (P)Baa1 from (P)A3
....Backed Subordinate MTN Program,
Downgraded to (P)Ba1 from (P)Baa3
....Backed Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture,
Downgraded to Ba1 from Baa3
....Backed Senior Secured Regular Bond/Debenture,
Downgraded to Baa1 from A3
..Issuer: Thames Water Utilities Ltd.
....LT Corporate Family Rating, Downgraded
to Baa2 from Baa1
..Issuer: Thames Water (Kemble) Finance PLC
....Backed Senior Secured Regular Bond/Debenture,
Confirmed at B1
Outlook Actions:
....Outlook, Changed To Stable From
Rating Under Review
For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of
debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures
in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the
same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant
to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing
ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings
issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain
regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the
support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action
for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's
credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement
provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional
rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may
be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each
case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior
to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have
affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings
tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action,
and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action,
the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Graham Taylor
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Infrastructure Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
Neil Griffiths-Lambeth
Associate Managing Director
Infrastructure Finance Group
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
Dial 1-866-330-MDYS (1-866-330-6397)
Dial the AT&T Direct Dial Access® code for
your location.
Then, at the prompt, dial 866-330-MDYS


text:
A family Church, centred in Jesus Christ, where everyone can feel welcomed and valued, and all can be involved in growing the kingdom of God.
COVID-19 Announcement 17-March-2020
All church gatherings are currently cancelled due to the COVID-19 situation.
Online Programs
Several of our Bible Study Groups are now meeting online, and Pr Joe's sermons are being streamed and recorded online. Further online programs are currently being planned.
To Join in:
* Subscribe to our weekly eUpdate to get the latest information
* Go to our YouTube channel
* Contact Us if you would like to join an online Bible Study group
Tune in to Faith FM 88 in the Morayfield area, or stream direct to your computer or phone
Caboolture Adventist Church
55 Caboolture River Rd


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