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Will the Energy Stock Rally Last?
Energy stocks, particularly oil and gas producers, are generally more volatile than the average stock on the market. Now that the WTI oil price is trading at the highest level we've seen in three years, you've got to wonder when it will run out of steam.
In the meantime, we saw some oil and gas producers rally strongly from their recent lows. Spartan Energy Corp. (TSX:SPE) and Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (TSX:BIR) are up ~20% and ~50%, respectively, from their lows in early March, Crescent Point Energy Corp. (TSX:CPG)(NYSE:CPG) is up ~22% from its low in April, and Vermilion Energy Inc. (TSX:VET)(NYSE:VET) is up ~10% from its low in mid-March.
In fact, some investors have already taken some profits from Vermilion stock, as the stock has dipped quite sharply by ~6%. Otherwise, its gains would have been even more impressive.
Four stocks are a small sample size of oil and gas producers, but could Vermilion be leading the way in the profit taking?
Stock-specific wise, Birchcliff has some resistance below $5 per share, and Crescent Point has a strong resistance at ~$11 per share, while the other stocks' resistances aren't so prominent.
Should you be in oil or gas?
There was originally more of a glut in gas than in oil. Oil prices have lifted, but gas prices haven't. So, generally speaking, you'd want to be in oil than in gas.
Yet, Birchcliff has rallied the strongest from its low in the group, even though it's a gas-weighted producer. That probably had to do with the fact that it was way too cheap previously. In fact, the stock was trading at its lowest multiple ever when it was below $3 per share!
Spartan is cheap, too. However, it's about to be acquired by Vermilion. Some investors don't like that idea because they'd bought Spartan for its price appreciation potential. So, Spartan stock hasn't really taken off since the news came out.
Vermilion is getting a good deal on Spartan, but as a mid-cap oil and gas producer, it wouldn't get the same kind of price appreciation that Spartan would when oil prices remain high.
Moreover, Vermilion tends to trade at a premium because of its stable dividend. Since 2003, Vermilion has increased its dividend by 35%. In fact, it just increased its dividend in May. Currently, Vermilion offers a ~6.4% yield at ~$43.20 per share.
Will the energy stock rally last?
Oil and gas prices are volatile, and they make the share prices of oil and gas stocks volatile as well. If oil prices remain stable above US$60 per barrel, it should show positively in the share prices of oil-weighted producers.
However, at the end of the day, other than the cooperation of commodity prices, whether an oil and gas stock will go higher depends on if the individual companies are well managed and the valuation of the individual stocks. On top of keeping costs low and focusing on producing free cash flow, the companies should also maintain strong balance sheets.
RSVP: A "State of the Energy Market" announcement half a decade in the making. Will you be there?
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In a special upcoming presentation, we'll reveal the factors that led us to this crucial decision, as well precisely how YOU could take advantage of what can only be described as a potentially generational energy shift. There's a good chance some of them will genuinely surprise you.
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Fool contributor Kay Ng owns shares of Birchcliff and Spartan.


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After Walton fell behind 5 2 in the fourth set on a combined block by Chattahoochee's Kristen Henninger and Lexi Kingree, Landon hit a kill off the first pass for a side out, and the Lady Raiders took over from there.
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Senior Jessica Sloan, who was on all four of Walton's state championship rosters, finished with 19 kills. Lindsay Seagraves added 17, Brooke Landon finished with 14 and Celeste Fitzgerald dished out 46 assists
LadyRaiders get another notch on powerhouse title streak
But that's when errors started coming in bunches for Walton.
MARIETTA Walton didn't panic during as it struggled late in the third set, and into the fourth, during Friday's Class AAAAAA championship.
"In the fourth set, we wanted to serve aggressively to their weaker passers and keep the ball away from (libero) Claudia (Coco)," Walton coach Suzanne Fitzgerald said. "We had to do a better job with matchups. It was all about moving the ball around and playing keep away."
But Chattahoochee didn't go away easy. Templeton saved the first match point on a kill, and Seagraves and Landon committed back to back hitting errors, forcing Walton's coach to call timeout.
After Chattahoochee (48 10) tied it at 15 all, the Lady Raiders were called for a net violation, a hitting error, a passing error, another hitting error and, finally, a double hit to fall behind 20 15.
Walton seized control during a seven point service run in the fourth set, held on to beat Chattahoochee 27 25, 25 21, 19 25, 25 19 at Marietta High School and won its fourth consecutive title.
Chattahoochee's Miami bound setter, Haley Templeton, also gave Walton fits during the third set by either setting the ball off a serve receive pass from the back row or going on the attack. She led the Lady Cougars with 16 kills and added 19 assists.
In all, the Lady Raiders' long powerful volleyball program has nine state championships, adding to the streak of five in a row from 1998 through 2002. Only Woodward Academy (10) has won more state titles since volleyball became a sanctioned sport in 1993.
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Walton continued pulling away, earning match point on a Templeton hitting error.
Templeton continued giving Walton fits early in the fourth set when she won two points by dumping the ball over Walton's hitters and to Nike Air Force 1 High Top On Feet the back row, where the Lady Raiders weren't covering.
The Lady Raiders (44 6) grinded out an extended first set on a Sloan kill, pulled away late in the second set and was in the driver's seat of the third with a 14 10 lead.
"This is amazing. I am so thrilled for the seniors," said Sloan, who has committed to play next year at the University of Dayton. "We worked so hard."
needed to focus, and that this was the last game for our seniors."
a fifth consecutive season, the Lady Raiders are way beyond that. All it took were a couple of strategic adjustments, and they were right back to form.
Walton never fully recovered and was later called for being out of rotation to give Chattahoochee set point. The Lady Cougars won it when Sloan's kill attempt White Nike Air Force High Tops
Freshman Dalaney Hans took serve and Walton's seven point surge began on an ace, followed by a free ball kill by Sloan that was set up by Hans' serve. Hans' run continued with Sloan and Landon trading kills, before ending with Walton holding a 10 5 lead that would eventually grow.
"We got into a rut, but we had to pick it up as a team," Fitzgerald said. "During the timeouts, we said that we Nike Air Force Mid
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Central Bucks South Concert Band
The Central Bucks South Concert Band is the second level concert ensemble at Central Bucks High School South and is open to all students. This ensemble performs high school level wind band literature. Concert Band students are required to attend after school and evening rehearsals throughout the year. It is recommended that students audition by way of the All-State Process every year, and participate in private lessons by an approved instructor. The Concert Band performs at the CB South winter and spring concerts. The Concert Band is not an auditioned ensemble and is open to any students in 10th-12th grade.


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Garden Stories
Garden.True.North is about gardening in Zone 3,
sharing thoughts, ideas and tips for all northern gardeners.
sharing thoughts, ideas and tips for all northern gardeners.
Bonsai Envy
A few weeks ago, I received a gift from a neighbor of a bonsai plant that she passed along from her brother's collection. I looked over the seven she had, and picked one that I found out later is a Ficus benjamina. Good choice because it is considered one of the best for a novice. It was like taking home a puppy – love the cute little guy -- but don't know the first thing about how to take care of it.
Above: Ficus benjaminia that is now mine!
Enjoy Your Garden
We once had a three-season porch that overlooked a pond and my backyard gardens. It was furnished with typical rattan porch furniture. We never used it. Why? I would guess we weren't comfortable.
I refurnished the room with cushy sofas, chairs, and a small table for meals. Outside I added a Pagoda Dogwood and Japanese Maple (both small understory trees growing about 8-10 feet) that provided screening from our neighbors. It made all the difference and we enjoyed the room and used it frequently. Can a similar redo of a garden increase the use of an outdoor room?
Now our screened porch is a screen house set right in the middle of the gardens.
Pruning Hydrangea
Spirea Snapshots
My brother Charlie on the left, my sister Linda and me on the right. We moved before my two younger brothers could be pictured by this particular shrub.
The pictures above are just two of many snapshots taken by our Mom in front of the Bridal Wreath Spirea (Spiraea prunifolia). Every time I pass one in full bloom a flood of memories race through my mind. Our Bridal Wreath was the go-to backdrop for confirmation, graduation and just plain nice-day pictures. It is helpful that this shrub blooms when these events are happening.
In looking through old family photo albums I see each generation had a favorite shrub. Lilacs and arborvitae appear to be the winners for earlier times. Before we moved to the house with the Spirea, a lilac bush figured predominately in our outdoor posed pictures.
The old-fashioned Bridal Wreath Spirea (botanical name: Spiraea prunifolia) is a non-native in the Rose family. Reliably hardy to 30 below (zone 4), it grows best in full sun but will tolerate part shade as long as it gets 4-6 hours of daily sunshine. Leave it room to grow to its mature size of 4-8 feet tall and wide and the flowers will fill its arching branches. The flowers attract butterflies and pollinators in the spring.
No need to prune this shrub, but if you must, do so right after it is done blooming so it has enough time to set flower buds for next spring. According to Melinda Myers in her Gardening in Wisconsin, removing the flower tips as the blooms fade can improve next year's bloom. Renewal pruning of this suckering shrub can be done by removing one-third of the oldest stems to the ground.
I've planted a Golden Bridalwreath Spirea (Spiraea x vanhouttei 'Levgold') in my Zone 3 garden that gets about 4 hours of sunshine daily with success. It is rated a Zone 4 plant so the test will be this spring since we had 33 below temperatures this winter. I've got my fingers crossed on this one.
Do you have a favorite backdrop for your family photos? If not, maybe this is one you will consider planting.
From Fresh to Dry Bouquet
Oh how I wish all things would be this easy! The picture above left is a fresh flower arrangement that I put together on October 1 just before our first frost. The one on the right is what I have on my kitchen island today. What do they have in common?
Aralia cordata 'Sun King', common name is Golden Japanese Spikenard, is bright chartreuse, stands about 4 feet tall and 4 feet wide plant. It brightens up any area it might be in, one could say it dominates, or putting it nicer it is a focal plant.
I added this to the front of my vegetable garden for all these reasons. My vegetables are fenced in and are the first things visitors see when entering our property. This showy plant keeps the area from looking too utilitarian. It is placed in a challenging area, since it is right next to a black-topped drive in a 3 foot by 10-foot bed. I needed a plant that would die completely back in the winter so it does not interfere with snow piles from the drive.
It produces clusters of star-shaped flowers in late summer that add to late flower bouquets. It does well for me in an area that gets about 6 hours of sun and is advertised as doing well in full sun to full shade. In other words, it is not picky except that it does not do well if allowed to dry out. I also have had no trouble with deer nibbling on this one.
The University of Arkansas Extension named it the plant of the week in September 2015, a link to their write-up is shown below. The University of Tennessee named it the plant of the month in May 2016. Since its introduction in 2000, it has received a lot of positive press.
The downside of this plant is that it suckers, although I have not had a problem with that yet after two years. The chartreuse color may overwhelm a garden of native plants; this would seem out-of-place. It is non-native, the common name gives you a clue on that, although there are native Spikenards.
This plant has does its job for the place I had to fill. I enjoy its brightness and low maintenance requirements. In the right place, I can recommend this as a plant to try.
For more information:
University of Arkansas Extension
Missouri Botanical Garden
University of Tennessee
Elegant Elderberries
The Elderberry bushes are in full bloom and there is a buzz about them. I originally planted the shrubs to harvest the berries that are reported to be an excellent immune booster to prevent colds and flu. I have discovered that the flowers are pollinator attractors, both flowers and berries look great in bouquets (they can also be used to make a liqueur or wine) and the berries provide food for people and birds. As a result of all the additional benefits of elderberries, it turns out that I have made only one batch of elderberry syrup.
Grab the Camera
I have been taking pictures of my gardens all season long so I can reference them in the off-season. My camera is an essential garden tool to record successes and failures, to document what needs to be done next year, and to steal ideas from other gardeners.
September Calendar
Activities for September
Mighty Oaks
Oaks are one of our more stately native trees. It's botanical name is Quercus.
Cultures that have come in contact with oaks have created many myths. Here is just a sampling:
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March 2020


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Invitation to second GREEN-WIN Global Dialogue
The GREEN-WIN project will hold its Second Global Dialogue on win-win strategies, green-growth pathways and green business models to support the achievement of climate goals, in Vienna, Austria from 7-8 February 2017. The overall goal of the Global Dialogue process is to produce shared policy narratives and innovative pathways on how to implement win-win solutions, green growth pathways, green business models and funding mechanisms that support climate action within the framework of sustainable development.
The first Global Dialogue was held in April 2016, and provided an opportunity to discuss the challenges of meeting economic and climate goals, develop a vision for the kind of world and economy that we want in the future, and begin a discussion of possible win-win solutions and how they contribute to achieving sustainable development goals.
This second Global Dialogue will carry forward these results build on the win-win solutions identified to date by workshop participants and the GREEN-WIN project team. Participants will be invited to share short presentations on win-win solutions with which they are familiar. Within the context of the vision developed at the first workshop, but with an emphasis on the immediate future, participants will identify what needs to be done in order to implement those win-win solutions. What enabling environments, policies and capacities are required for the win-win solutions to flourish? How can win-win solutions be scaled up? For which sectors are win-win solution not available or difficult to develop? Are win-win solutions sufficient for meeting climate goals? How can win-win solutions be aligned in order to achieve both short-term and long-term goals?
The workshop will take place at the magdas Hotel in Vienna, Austria from 7-8 February 2017. For more information, and to register, please contact moritz.kammerlander (at) jaeger-international.eu. The first round deadline for registration is 18 October 2016.


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My Reflections on Money20/20 (November 1, 2019)
Although Anil Aggarwal had personally invited me back in 2012 to Money20/20, I only made it to conference this year. Catching up with attendees after past conferences, I always regretted not going. This year's event had a large and diverse set of speakers and exhibitors making it difficult to decide which sessions and workshops to attend.


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For a few years now I've been half-begun on a project to help identify key strategic locations for woodland restoration. I've spoken about native Irish woodlands, their tiny fragmented remains, and have spent the month of October on my #Treetober threads talking about Ireland's tree species. What I think is often missing in the conversation
Tag: climate change
I have always watched fires burn. As a child, playing with matches Older, piling the wood in the grate better than my dad Later as a circus performer until my knees got bad I have always stopped and watched Captured by the heat And the flicker bittersweet. The first time losing the Amazon made me
When I was 12, nearly 13, I had a science project due; one of my first of secondary school. I loved forests so I decided to look at the effects of deforestation which led me to studies of Greenhouse Gases. It was 2004 and while people knew about "global warming", it was not on the


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The Montecore Women's Summer collection was created with an idea of innovation in mind. I have created a collection of "knitted garments" in goose down, one of a kind, with two different ways to wear them. Liner fabrics that are minimalistic, elegant, informal yet at the same time are very light. These soft to the touch fabrics and high tech materials unite to create an elegance and refinement that distinguishes this unparalleled Montecore look. A project that moved away from the trends, that offers new products, style and craftsmanship. This is a collection of strong character and confidence. Just like the women who wear it.
Fabio Peroni


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Published on December 31st, 2019 | by Natural Awakenings Northern New Jersey0
Full-Moon Hike in Tenafly
The Tenafly Nature Center presents a guided two-hour, mile-and-a-half hike for adults by the moon from 6:30 to 8:30 p.m., January 10, in Tenafly. Hikers will stop for a rest at the crossroads of the Purple and Allison Trail. Participants should bring a flashlight. In case of inclement weather, the hike will be postponed to February.
The tranquil and meditative hike encourages reflection and connection with nature. It will give participants a chance to ask themselves what they are looking for in life and how they can grow as human beings. It will also give hikers a chance to experience the trails after dark.
Cost: $5 for members and $10 for nonmembers. Location: 313 Hudson Ave, Tenafly. For more information or to register (required), call 201-568-6093 or visit TenaflyNatureCenter.org.


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Saxo Morningstar Moat Portfolio Q1 2018 commentary
|Instruments traded
|Asset classes
|Global equities (excluding emerging markets)
|Investment style
|Fundamental analysis focused on quality and value
|Quarterly return
|–6.9% (net of fees)
|Q1 2018 daily return volatility
Market overview
The start of 2018 has proved to be a behavioural minefield for investors. Like most of 2017, investors are grappling with a backdrop of trade tensions, political instability, rising interest rates and a mature business cycle. Yet, perhaps of more importance, investors are now also questioning their own unbounded optimism and recognising that markets won't always go up.
What is interesting is that the market setback in the first quarter came at a time when the fundamentals remained intact. Corporate earnings continue to rise in the majority of instances and default rates remain low. Hence, the unwinding of performance appears more complex than an unassuming turn in the business cycle.
In this regard, fear-inducing headlines were not hard to spot, with Donald Trump's threat of a trade war beginning to materialise. Export-oriented markets began to suffer alongside the US, with multinational corporations in Germany, Japan and the UK selling off on the back of this news. Even at a sector level there has been little respite, with deteriorating performance across the board. Interestingly, emerging markets were among the most resilient, presumably due to a combination of cheaper valuations and a market composition that is increasingly focused on domestic growth.
Elsewhere, a combination of rising interest rates and widening credit spreads (especially in the US) have boosted bond yields from historically low levels. This shift is meaningful, as fixed income and equity markets have shown similar vulnerabilities under this development. The impact was most felt during February and March, with inflation-linked bonds and corporate debt failing to add any value over government bonds.
In contemplating the chain of events, the impact of currency must also be considered. For instance, the US dollar weakened against sterling during the March quarter, dragging on local returns and influencing risk management.
Portfolio performance
Best performing positions
- TripAdvisor is the world's leading travel metasearch company. The website offers over 570 million reviews, and information on 4.4 million restaurants, 1,150,000 hotels, 780,000 holiday rentals, and 875,000 attractions. The stock gained following its earnings results, which were better than expected. Morningstar expects TripAdvisor's network advantage to remain in place over the next decade, supported by a solid global position, low penetration of travel advertising spending allocated online, and increased marketing spend. The position is held into Q2 2018
- Flour is a global provider of engineering, procurement, fabrication, construction and maintenance services to customers including oil and gas, manufacturing and mining companies. Strong earnings results and an improved outlook boosted the stock price in the quarter. The stock is maintained into Q2 2018, on the basis that the federal income tax reform, repatriation incentives and regulatory reforms will together raise customers' anticipated after-tax return on capital projects and allow certain customers to finance projects with cash formerly trapped overseas
- Embraer, based in Brazil, manufacturers regional aircraft with fewer than 130 seats, business jets and defensive and security products and services. The stock price has lifted in alignment with impressive growth thanks to its Phenom 300 aircraft and now has a dominant position in the lower-end segment. The position is now sold on the basis that we feel the company is facing increasing competition and that Embraer will face margin pressure as it transitions to a new regional jet production in Spring 2018
Worst performing positions
- General Electric is a manufacturing giant in multiple industrial segments including power, oil and gas, renewable energy, lighting, aviation, healthcare and transportation. The stock price suffered following a January update in which it announced it needed USD 25 billion of capital contributions to bolster reserves in its insurance business, and higher-than-expected long term tax rates, resultant of the tax reform. The position is maintained into Q2 2018 on the basis that GE plans to sell USD 20 billion of assets over the next few years, with the aim of driving down excess corporate costs
- Mattel is a manufacturer and marketer of toy products sold to wholesale customers and direct customers. Its turnaround remains delayed, having been hindered by the recent bankruptcy and liquidation of Toys "R" Us, which has negatively affected the stock price. Morningstar believes Mattel's new turnaround plan, which places a heightened focus on core brand productivity and better manufacturing alignment, should bear fruit in the second half of 2018. The position is maintained into Q2 2018
- Stericycle is the largest (US) domestic provider of regulated medical waste management, with operations in several other countries globally. Earnings results in February presented a decline in gross profit and earnings per share in comparison to last year, knocking back the stock price. Despite this, the position is held into Q2 2018 on the basis that it is a leading provider in its space, that business should grow with an aging population, and that there are significant opportunities yet to be realised
Performance summary
|+32% (17.09.2015)
Considering the longer-term outlook, it could be tempting to attribute the recent market falls to a single factor and extrapolate some form of future expectation. For instance, a trade war between the US and China is a scary prospect with no clear winner. Morningstar Investment management ultimately believe that the market will redirect its attention to the difference between price and the underlying fundamentals.


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Circus that has entertained audiences for more than a century returns with aerial stunts, trained animals, and comical clowns
What You'll Get
- General admission
- Child tickets are for ages 3–13, and adult tickets are for ages 14 and up.
- Children under 3 receive free admission unless they require a seat.
- Click here to view the seating chat
Garden Bros. Circus
- The performers: Comprised of over 60 amazing individuals from across more than 22 countries, the cast features such acts as the Daring Aerial Artists, Racing camels, Motorcycles in the Sphere of Fear, and Chinese Acrobats.
- The spectacle: A theatrical extravaganza loaded with thrilling special effects, concert-style lighting, trained elephants, and three rings overflowing with excitement, incite laughter and lasting memories amongst families.
- In big shoes: Throughout the event, whimsical clowns crack up the audience with their mischievous antics and family-friendly humor.
The Fine Print
Expiration varies. Refundable only within 24 hours of purchase. Limit 8/person, subject to ticket availability. Valid only for option purchased. Redeem for a ticket at venue box office. Merchant is issuer of tickets - discount reflects current ticket prices, which may change. ADA seating cannot be guaranteed; contact box office prior to purchase for availability. Ticket value includes all fees. Child tickets are for ages 3–13, and adult tickets are for ages 14 and up. Children under 3 receive free admission unless they require a seat. Merchant is solely responsible to purchasers for the care and quality of the advertised goods and services. Offer is not eligible for our promo codes or other discounts.


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Tuesday: 35 minutes sitting
Wednesday: 35 minutes sitting
Thursday: 35 minutes sitting
Friday: 35 minutes sitting
Saturday: 35 minutes sitting
Mik is notoriously not much of a communicator, so as his loving mother I've been living on crumbs of information since he left for college in August. It's hard work to piece together a coherent narrative about someone's life from (a) texts saying "OK," (b) phone calls saying "Good," (c) the occasional social media image of the back of his head, and (d) an app that spits out swimming results (which don't lie but are nonetheless tricky to extrapolate into well-being).
But last week I got a big, meaty chunk of data.
Whoever is in charge of the Kenyon swimming Instagram put up a whole post just about Mik after he tied for 32nd in one of his races and had to do a swim-off for the last available slot in finals. They said he had grit! They said he made them proud! They used his preferred nickname (which is not "Mik," lol)! They called him the "MVP"! They posted a video showing him absolutely destroying the competition with a bunch of kids yelling in support!
I'm thinking you simply don't post glowing praise about the kid who gets 32nd place unless you've noticed that he's a hard worker and a good person. And he clearly wouldn't have a charming nickname unless he was fitting in well with the team. So I think he must be…actually good.
If both my children are now nice and happy adults, I believe that means I've officially graduated from parenting with honors, correct?


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As an extension to its exhibitions, the Centre Pompidou-Metz regularly programs a wide variety of artistic events in the Wendel Auditorium and the Studio. These events relate to all the fields of artistic creation.
Dance, theatre, performances and concerts : 5 € / 10 € / 15 € according to the event
Paroles d'artistes (Artists talk): Free admission on a first-come first-served basis
Initiation à l'Histoire de l'art du xxe siècle (Introduction to 20th century art history): 5 € (one single price)
Un dimanche, une œuvre (Each Sunday, a work of art): Free admission for visitors with a ticket for the exhibition, on a first-come first-served basis. Reservation the same day at the ticket counters.
Events presented outside the Centre Pompidou-Metz and in partnership with other structures: according to the event


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UK Finance Bill 2015: BEPS CbC Reporting is ConfirmedBy Robert Robillard - 13 March 2015
This blogpost originally appeared on rbrt.ca.
See page 24 of Overview of Legislation in Draft available here:
"5.5. Country–by-country reporting. Following the publication of the OECD (2014) Guidance on Transfer Pricing Documentation and country-by-country Reporting on 16 September 2014, legislation will be introduced to enable the implementation in the UK of the OECD model for country-by-country reporting. (TIIN)"
Pages 203-205 provide more information.
See also pages 528-30 of Draft Clauses & Explanatory Notes for Finance Bill 2015 available here for more detail.
The final implementation timeline and the wording of the law are expected following UK 2015 Budget scheduled on March 18, 2015.
Robert Robillard, Ph.D., CPA, CGA, Adm.A., MBA, M.Sc. Econ., M.A.P.
Senior Partner, RBRT Inc.
514-742-8086; robertrobillard "at" rbrt.ca
The convergence of RBRT's tax, accounting and economics expertise makes a difference. The information in this blog post is general information only. Data and information come from sources believed to be reliable but complete accuracy cannot be guaranteed. RBRT Inc. or the author are not responsible or liable for any error, omission or inaccuracy in such information. The opinions expressed in this blogpost are those of the author. Readers should seek advice and counsel from RBRT Inc. as required.