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The jump from conventional field theories of point-like objects to a theory of one-dimensional objects has striking implications. The vibration spectrum of the string contains a massless spin-2 particle: the graviton. Its long wavelength interactions are described by Einstein's theory of General Relativity. Thus General Relativity may be viewed as a prediction of string theory! Author Unknown
We understand I think the relevance in regards ot the cosmological views that GR helps us understand in the curvatures inherent as an expression of the cosmos.
What we may have trouble with is the value we may assign such curvatures taken down to the quantum regime. This may seem incompatible, yet, the dynamical nature of the energy is never really that far from speaking from the particle/energy inhernet in nature, as a energy determinant value?
Why would you treat the quantum realm any different then you would the cosmological one, if the assumption is that GR is predicted?
Fractal Dimenison-Tree Silhoutte
I like to think of the "roots and the rings of history" here so that you may see the comparative value of thinking of the "building blocks" not so much as "boxes" but as energy values related to the circle.
There really was a reason to fear pathological entities like the Koch coastline and Peano's monster curve. Here were creations so twisted and distorted that they did not fit into the box of contemporary mathematics. Luckily, mathematics was fortified by the study of the monsters and not destroyed by them. Whatever doesn't kill you only makes you stronger.
Take the Koch coastline and examine it through a badly focused lens. It appears to have a certain length. Let's call it 1 unit. Sharpen the focus a bit so that you can resolve details that are ⅓ as big as those seen with the first approximation. The curve is now four times longer or 4 units. Double the resolution by the same factor. Using a focus that reveals details 1/9 the first focus gives us a coastline 16 times longer and so on. Such an activity hints at the existence of a quantifiable characteristic.
To be a bit more precise, every space that feels "real" has associated with it a sense of distance between any two points. On a line segment like the Koch coastline, we arbitrarily chose the length of one side of the first iterate as a unit length. On the Euclidean coordinate plane the distance between any two points is given by the Pythagorean theorem
Planck time and what new physics would we have shown once we got down to these lengths? The energy of discernation has deluded us into what was once uncertainty has now QGP idealizations and the inherency of the thinking along side of high energy considerations.
Discretium and continuity are not at odds here just that the "realm of thinking" is limited to the GR suppositons about what the world is in cosmological discretium views? Yet, we know at such levels, the "continuity" of the energy has taken over. The coast lines appear fuzzy, yet in "box counting" it doesn't seem that way. What are it's limitations then, when our views meet uncertainty about what discribes the coast line? Shall we now refer to the days, weeks, months, as an energy valuation of the circle, in the trees root and the history it contains?
Pick a "ring/circle" of the tree and tell me what happen during that time?


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Looking for ways to engage students who are now learning remotely or being homeschooled? Here are free online resources that meet curriculum standards that have been developed by the Museum of Jewish Heritage – A Living Memorial to the Holocaust.Learn more
LOX at Café Bergson is OU kosher certified.
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Edmond J. Safra Plaza
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New York, NY 10280
All visitors must pass through security to enter the Museum. Backpacks, strollers, large bags, and other large items must be stored in coat check.
February 25, 2019 – August 16, 2020

subset: commoncrawl


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We theoretically and experimentally study the spin Hall effect of reflected light at an air-uniaxial crystal interface. The spin-dependent nanometer-sized displacements depend not only on the incident polarization and the incident angle of the light beam, but also on the orientation of the crystal optic axis. The experimental results are in perfect agreement with theoretical predictions for the vertical and horizontal polarization incidence.
©2010 Optical Society of AmericaFull Article | PDF Article
OSA Recommended Articles
Konstantin Y. Bliokh, C. T. Samlan, Chandravati Prajapati, Graciana Puentes, Nirmal K. Viswanathan, and Franco Nori
Optica 3(10) 1039-1047 (2016)
Yi Qin, Yan Li, Huanyu He, and Qihuang Gong
Opt. Lett. 34(17) 2551-2553 (2009)
Mengjiang Jiang, Hai Lin, Linqing Zhuo, Wenguo Zhu, Heyuan Guan, Jianhui Yu, Huihui Lu, Jieyuan Tan, and Zhe Chen
Opt. Express 26(6) 6593-6601 (2018)


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Project SEARCH interns graduate
Thursday, July 2, 2015 by CONTRIBUTED ARTICLE in School
Good Shepherd Rehabilitation Network's Project SEARCH program held its graduation ceremony June 12 at Cedarbrook Nursing Home.
Eight Good Shepherd Rehabilitation Network interns and five Lehigh County Cedarbrook Nursing Home interns were honored at the event.
Coplay bike derby called a success
Thursday, June 25, 2015 by CONTRIBUTED ARTICLE in Local News
The 21st annual Coplay Town Watch bike derby appeared destined for the tire junk yard. After several years of low attendance, CTW President Bill Leiner Jr. announced in January that if this year's derby was unsuccessful, it would be the last.
With that charge, the CTW Bike Derby Committee introduced a change of venue and an invitation change.
The committee concluded the key to success was changing the derby's location and expanding the invitation list. Thirteen day care centers, one in Coplay and 12 in Whitehall, were invited to participate.
Zachary Shupe receives Eagle Scout award
Thursday, June 25, 2015 by CONTRIBUTED ARTICLE in Local News
Zachary Shupe received his Eagle Scout award at his Court of Honor ceremony May 31 at St. Peter's Catholic Church in Coplay.
He is the son of David and Deborah Shupe of Northampton.
Shupe began his Scouting career as a Tiger Cub in Cub Pack 79, Stiles. He then earned his Arrow of Light and Heavy Shoulder award. He later crossed into Troop 79 and became a member of the Order of the Arrow.
He joined Troop 59 in Egypt, where he held positions of den chief, assistant patrol leader, patrol leader, assistant senior patrol leader and Order of the Arrow representative.
zTake Back Day clears old medications from local homes
Thursday, May 8, 2014 by CONTRIBUTED ARTICLE in Police Log
Lehigh County Police Departments, Pennsylvania State Police and the Allentown Health Bureau collected 766 pounds of unused and expired medications during the eighth National Take Back Day event April 26.
The Lehigh County total for all collections since the first in 2010 is more than 7,600 pounds of medications.
County residents were able to dispose of capsules, pills, including pet medications and liquids.
School observes Drug Facts Week
Thursday, April 17, 2014 by CONTRIBUTED ARTICLE in School
National Drug Facts Week was observed across the country recently. The campaign was started in 2010 by the National Institute on Drug Abuse to raise awareness about drug abuse among teens and shatter the myths about drugs and substance abuse.
According to NIDA, about a third of high school seniors report using an illicit drug sometime in the past year; more than 10 percent report non-medical use of potentially addictive prescription painkillers; and more than 20 percent report smoking marijuana in the past month.
Thursday, April 3, 2014 by CONTRIBUTED ARTICLE in OpinionSchool snow day flexibility bill passes senate
The state Senate unanimously approved a bill March 19 to give schools greater flexibility to make up time missed as a result of weather emergencies, according to Senator Jake Corman, R-34th, the bill's sponsor.
Senate Bill 1281 would allow schools to calculate the school year on an hourly, rather than daily basis. In addition, the legislation would permit them to hold class on one Saturday per month to make up missed school days.
Two CAP cadets earn awards
Thursday, March 6, 2014 by CONTRIBUTED ARTICLE in Local News
Two Civil Air Patrol cadets from the local squadron were honored recently for their achievements. Cadet Lt. Dominic Six received the Billy Mitchell Award and Cadet MSgt. Alex Pantaleo was named 2013 Cadet of the Year at a Jan. 28 ceremony.
Both cadets are members of CAP Composite Squadron 805 of Whitehall.
Presentations were made with the assistance of Vince O'Domski, district director for Congressman Charlie Dent, R-15th, who gave the cadets certificates of achievement along with their awards.


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We automated a process to identify companies that do some business with the Department of Navy and then detected those companies' current hiring requirements.
We then parsed these hiring requirements using a cloud-based NLP classifier.
Finally, we used a deep-learning model to look for similarities between these hiring requirements and our Expeed Software capabilities.
As a result, our data science says we are a good fit.
We can help you with any of your data science needs. We are a technology company, NOT a 3rd party job employer. If you'd like to learn more, please reach out to John Sarver.


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Apple's Secret Diabetes Team Working on the Holy Grail for Treating Diabetes is solving the Wrong Problem
Apple's Secret Diabetes Team, Holy Crap! Not Holy Grail...
Call today! +1.888.458.4325 | MX +52(664)200-2330
Platelet-rich Plasma has many applications: Facial rejuvenation, tennis elbow, shoulder injuries, knee injuries and hair regrowth stimulation. We use only the finest machine for PrP therapy. It is called the Harvest SmartPrep2 and is one of the few offering kits specifically designed to eliminate errors in mixing and growth factor activation.
PrP Therapy extracts growth factors from you blood to stimulate the body's natural healing process. It is used routinely for the following treatments:
Platelet-rich plasma (PRP) — the latest treatment for tendon injuries — heals tennis elbow better than corticosteroid shots, a new study suggests!
Because these isolated areas of our bodies get very little blood flow, injured tendons, knees, elbows and shoulders heal notoriously slow. Think about it!
Platelet-rich Plasma from PrP therapy attracts healing growth factors, so the idea of PrP is to inject a patient's own Platelet-rich Plasma at the site of the injury, hence, attracting healing Growth Factors to the specific area.
To date, studies suggest that PRP works for tennis elbow, knee injuries and shoulder pain.
At the same time, corticosteroid shots have been losing favor among many doctors with access and knowledge of PrP. Nevertheless, this treatment is so new few doctors have access to it. At the Anti Aging and Wellness Clinic in Escazu, we are one of only a few clinics offering this treatment in the entire region.
Whether you are a soccer player or a CEO, your wellness is not out of reach at our clinic in Escazu (San Jose), Costa Rica.
Some famous athletes that use PrP treatment include: Pittsburgh Steelers Safety – Troy Polamalu (knee injury), Golfer – Tiger Woods (knee injury), Los Angeles Dodgers Pitcher – Takashi Saito (UCL). Combined with HGH, PrP and Tommy John (UCL) surgery in the elbow could be a savior for many athletes, provided that Mark Cuban's recent call for more testing ans studies be done to review HGH as an injury recovery tool for professional athletes.
Platelet-rich Plasma Therapy is now being used to treat tendon injuries in the arms, shoulders and knees.
Since tendons receive little blood, they heal slower (generally) than other parts of the body. In fact, in many cases, healing may not occur at all unless an invasive surgery is performed to repair the damaged tissue. Platelet-rich Plasma treatment shows great promise in these areas of the body. It works by using the patient's own blood, which is transformed into Platelet-rich Plasma using a Harvest Smartprep 2 machine, and then injecting the PrP into the damaged area. The procedure is commonly referred to as PrP therapy or Platelet-rich Plasma Therapy. PrP contains certain growth factors that work to heal as well as attract other healing growth factors to the area treated. Results are seen within weeks following treatment.
By taking approximately 60cc of the patient's blood, a Harvest SmartPrep machine can extract the Platelet-rich Plasma. The PrP is removed from the Harvest Machine, placed into a syringe and injected into the area of concern, usually the patient's elbow, shoulder or knee – although more and more procedures are also being used for back injuries.
One famous publicized study by researches at St. Elisabeth Hospital in the Netherlands found that over the long run PRP treatment outperformed the commonly known corticosteroid injection.
Dr. Gosens was the leader of the study. He and his colleagues submit that their study shows a significant improvement in 26 weeks. Other doctors are reporting even better results.
As more time passes, more and more physicians will likely migrate to this technology, as it uses an individuals own growth factors to stimulate the healing process.
Platelet-rich Plasma therapy is very new and is on the cutting edge of technology for helping the body to heal itself faster, particularly in tendons, but also for facial rejuvenation. The treatment is available at the Anti Aging and Wellness Clinic in Costa Rica. Dr. Mesen has performed the treatment with good success and the clinic is one of only a few in the region with this cutting-edge technology.
Apple's Secret Diabetes Team, Holy Crap! Not Holy Grail...
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© 2020 — Anti Aging and Wellness Clinic. DISCLAIMER: This website is an educational service that provides general health and wellness information only. It is not intended to diagnose, treat or cure any health related condition. Please always consult a physician regarding your health before starting any health or diet program. No medical treatment can guarantee results. Results vary from patient to patient. We encourage you to do your own research, ask questions, and review board certifications and testimonials on any similar websites describing similar therapies.


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San Fernando Valley, CA – Today the Los Angeles Police Protective League announced its support for Monica Rodriguez, adding a highly sought-after and highly-respected public safety endorsement to the grassroots coalition uniting in support of Rodriguez's campaign.
"When it comes to safeguarding communities in the Northeast San Fernando Valley, Monica Rodriguez is the clear choice for the Los Angeles Police Protective League, representing nearly 10,000 sworn officers of the LAPD," said Los Angeles Police Protective League President Craig Lally. "Monica has proven experience, a record of results, and a lifetime commitment to the safety and well-being of families and neighborhoods throughout the Northeast Valley."
The Los Angeles Police Protective League is the second major campaign announcement this week for the Monica Rodriguez campaign, following on the announcement that Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti is strongly endorsing her candidacy. The LAPPL, representing the city's sworn police officers, the United Firefighters of Los Angeles City, representing city firefighters, paramedics, and first responders, and public safety leaders, such as former Valley Fire Chief Daryl Arbuthnott, have united behind Monica Rodriguez.
"I am deeply honored to have the support of the Los Angeles Police Protective League, and to have earned the support from the men and women who protect our families and serve our communities as sworn police officers in Los Angeles," said Monica Rodriguez. "On the City Council, I will make public safety a top priority, working tirelessly to ensure that all our neighborhoods and communities are vibrant, and safe."
In less than five months since launching her campaign, Monica Rodriguez has built a strong grassroots campaign, winning support from hundreds of local community leaders, educators, small business owners, and working families in the Northeast San Fernando Valley. She also won the endorsements of the United Firefighters Association of Los Angeles, SEIU-USWW, Laborers Local 300, Teamsters Joint Council 42, as well as local Democratic and Progressive leaders, including Supervisor Sheila Kuehl, Councilmembers Paul Koretz and Nury Martinez, and Mayor Eric Garcetti.
Monica Rodriguez is running for the Los Angeles City Council District 7, serving Sylmar, Pacoima, North Hills, La Tuna Canyon, Shadow Hills, and Mission Hills. Please visit www.MonicaforCityCouncil.com for more information.


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Nature's Quick Constipation Cure
Melanosis coli: characterised by pigmented macrophages in the lamina propria that impart a dusky mucosal appearance mimicking ischaemia. The pigment is lipofuscin and degenerative in nature, and is thought to relate to cellular apoptosis. There is an association with use of laxatives and bowel dysmotility.
Volvulus: usually comprises a markedly dilated atonic sigmoid colon in either Africans (due to a high-fibre diet with bulky stools), or constipation-related acquired megacolon in the elderly. The sigmoid loop twists on its mesentery, obstructs and may become secondarily ischaemic. Resection specimens are often dilated, thinned and featureless. Melanosis coli may be present. Congenital megacolon and Hirschsprung's disease are discussed elsewhere (see page 232).
Pneumatosis coli: submucosal gas cysts lined by macrophages and giant cells with overlying mucosal chronic inflammation or pseudolipomatosis. There is an association with volvulus, constipation, diverticulosis and chronic obstructive airways disease. Pathogenesis relates to retroperitoneal tracking of air into the bowel mesentery, abnormal luminal gas production linked to the increased intraluminal pressure seen in the above disorders, and introduction of gas during endoscopy. About 50% of cases resolve but recurrent or severe lesions may require colectomy of the involved segment.
Obstructive enterocolitis: continuous or segmental areas of inflammation or ulceration adjacent to or distant from an obstructing distal lesion, e.g., annular carcinoma or diverticulosis. Small bowel may also be involved with mimicry of Crohn's disease. A dilated, thinned caecal pouch can become ischaemic and perforate.
Diverticulosis: very common in Western society due to a low-fibre diet, high intraluminal pressure and subsequent transmural mucosal herniation in the sigmoid colon through points of vessel entry from the mesentery. Presentation is with altered bowel habit, per rectum bleeding, left iliac fossa pain or a mass. The latter implies diverticulitis with possible perforation and peri-colonic reaction/abscess formation. Portal pyaemia, liver abscesses and peritonitis can ensue. The diverticular segment is thickened and contracted with muscle coat hypertrophy and visible diver-ticular pouches in the muscularis and mesenteric fat. They may be filled and obstructed with faecal or vegetable debris, and ulcerated with a coating of pericolonic exudate and abscess. The concertina-like redundant mucosal folds can show crescentic colitis due to abrasion of their tips by the passing faecal stream. Occasionally, the chronic inflammation may be transmural and granulomatous mimicking or co-existing with Crohn's disease. Treatment is often conservative, e.g., by diet alteration, but severe or complicated cases require colectomy. Co-presentation with an occult carcinoma within the strictured segment must be excluded by careful pathological examination.
Mucosal prolapse: a mechanism producing reactive mucosal changes of crypt hyperplasia, smooth-muscle thickening of the lamina propria and variable surface erosion. It is common to a number of situations including: solitary rectal ulcer syndrome (SRUS), inflammatory cloacogenic polyp, diverticular-related crescentic colitis, mucosa adjacent to a polyp, stricture or tumour, stercoral trauma and the mucocutaneous junction of stomas. In SRUS there is a history of abnormal anterior rectal wall descent due to straining at defaecation. This results in induration of the wall that can mimic a plaque of tumour on palpation and rectoscopy. Biopsy is diagnostic and treatment is usually conservative, related to better stool habit - occasional cases require resection of the involved sleeve of mucous membrane with apposition and plication of the intervening muscle (Delorme's procedure).
Was this article helpful?
Did you ever think feeling angry and irritable could be a symptom of constipation? A horrible fullness and pressing sharp pains against the bladders can't help but affect your mood. Sometimes you just want everyone to leave you alone and sleep to escape the pain. It is virtually impossible to be constipated and keep a sunny disposition. Follow the steps in this guide to alleviate constipation and lead a happier healthy life.


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PDF Version: Adding a Syllabus File in HuskyCT.pdf
Step 1: Navigate to the Content Area or Folder
Option 1: Click on a Content Area Link in the navigation menu e.g. "Course Overview and Syllabus"
Option 2: Click on a Content Folder Link on a content page
Step 2: Add the Syllabus File to the Content Area or Folder
Option 1: Using "File"
1. Click on the "Build Content" button, then on "File"
2. Enter a name for the link to the Syllabus, then click on "Browse My Computer" and select the desired Syllabus file. If the wrong file is chosen, use "Select a Different File".
3. Verify that the new file has been added, and that the file is set to open in a new window
4. Click Submit
Option 2: Using "Syllabus"
1. Click the "Build Content" button, then "Syllabus"
2. Enter a name for the Syllabus, Select the option "Use Existing File", and use "Browse My Computer" to select the file
3. Verify that the file name appears at the bottom
4. Click Submit on this screen and the next
5. This is how the new Syllabus will look on the Content Page


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Notice: On April 23, 2014, Statalist moved from an email list to a forum, based at statalist.org.
[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]
Re: st: ROC-curves
"Roger B. Newson" <firstname.lastname@example.com>
Re: st: ROC-curves
Mon, 14 Oct 2013 18:24:21 +0100
To get the area under the curve with confidence limits, use the -somersd- package, which you can download from SSC. To estimate the AUC instead of Somers' D (the default), use the option -transf(c)-.
findit roccurve
and installing the latest version of the package.
I hope this helps.
Best wishes
Pepe MS, Longton G, Janes H. 2009. Estimation and comparison of receiver
operating characteristic curves. The Stata Journal 9(1): 1-16. Download from
Janes H, Longton G, Pepe MS. 2009. Accommodating covariates in receiver
operating characteristic analysis. The Stata Journal 9(1): 17-39.
Download from
Roger B Newson BSc MSc DPhil
Lecturer in Medical Statistics
Respiratory Epidemiology and Public Health Group
National Heart and Lung Institute
Imperial College London
Royal Brompton Campus
Room 33, Emmanuel Kaye Building
1B Manresa Road
London SW3 6LR
Tel: +44 (0)20 7352 8121 ext 3381
Fax: +44 (0)20 7351 8322
Email: firstname.lastname@example.com
Web page: http://www.imperial.ac.uk/nhli/r.newson/
Departmental Web page:
Opinions expressed are those of the author, not of the institution.
On 14/10/2013 17:54, Ragnhild Bergene Skråstad wrote:
I investigate how diffrent tests, in combination, can predict a given outcome.
I have made a logistic model with the command "logistic" and plotted the ROC-curve with the command "lroc". This cave me the ROC-curve and the AUC. I wonder:
- how can I get the 95 % CI for this AUC?
- I would like to get the sensitivity at a given fixed false-positive rate. Do I have to get all the coordinates on the ROC curve and identify the one at the FPR at interest- and if so, how do I do that, or is it a direct way to do this?
best wishes
Ragnhild B Skråstad
* For searches and help try:
* http://www.stata.com/help.cgi?search
* http://www.stata.com/support/faqs/resources/statalist-faq/
* http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/
* For searches and help try:
* http://www.stata.com/help.cgi?search
* http://www.stata.com/support/faqs/resources/statalist-faq/
* http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/


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on and I are taking a drive up, (and then back down) the Great River Road to thoroughly enjoy the fall colors. We, of course, stay at bed-and-breakfast inns whenever possible and last night was …
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Super Simple Savoury Muffins
If you're off to an end of year party and need a super simple, tasty & nutritious dish to take, these savoury muffins are perfect. Seriously, it doesn't get much easier than this when you're baking - and your kids can help too. They're also egg-free, which makes them excellent for sensitive tummies.
Shortbread biscuits
Preheat oven to150 degrees
Butter Biscuits with Body Boost
Great afternoon snack the kids can't say no..
Pork Dumplings with Veggie Boost
Place the pork mince, shallots, ginger, garlic, veggie boost, oyster sauce and light soy sauce in a medium bowl and mix well to combine.
Banana Bread with Veggie Boost
Simple easy to make
Chocolate Chip Muffins with Veggie Boost
Adding Veggie Boost to muffins and no one the wiser!
Spaghetti Muffin Snacks
Only takes 5 mins to make, so easy!
Chocolate Crackles with Brain Boost
Chocolate Crackles a party favourite
Brain Boost Coconut Crispy Bites
Add the oats and Rice Bubbles to a food processor and blitz until they are all broken down.
Immune Pancakaes
They are pink when you put them in fry pan but change colour
Superfood Spread
Great recipe to add into on peanut butter from Alice in HeathlyLand


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Holocaust Remembrance Day
I've had the blessing of visiting Dachau, Germany on two occasions. Why would I call it a blessing? A blessing in that this particular period of history is past and I got to see first-hand what people can do to each other when they decide a group of people don't deserve to live. I got to walk through Anne Frank's hiding place and realized how precious freedom could be when a group of people hid out in very cramped quarters in hopes of outliving the duration of a war on them because they were Jewish.
Today, we should be remembering the horrors of that time in history when animals took over an expanse of the world and did horrible things to innocent people. Although we would all like to breath a heartfelt sigh of relief and should be taking to heart to slogan "Never Again!", recent history and the current times now reflects a return of bias towards the Jewish community with the added scenario that Christians are now included in the onslaught.
Right now, unless you look for the information, you may still be pretty complacent and ignorant about your freedoms. If you rely on the government to preserve your freedoms, you haven't been paying attention.
View of Doctor Who Has Delivered over 4,000 Babies . . .
It Might Not Be Too Late . . . Yet, Are We Doing Too Little . . .
Seems So . . .
There ARE No Two Ways About It . . .
When Salad Isn't Healthy . . .
Seems to me that with the general lack of discipline in the world, why are we surprised when some of our healthy groceries are not always grown, prepared for market, and placed in the stores for sale in the most humanly best condition? That's when we have to get proactive on our own behalf and either raise such vegetation for ourselves or make sure we clean what we purchase far and above what we think it will need.
My rules are:
Nothing goes into my refrigerator that isn't washed.
No bagged greens and lettuce. Yes, the packages claim they have been washed two or three times . . . but no mention about whether the water was changed all those times.
Always disinfect salad greens and vegetables.
If the fruit or melon has a skin, actually soap and water wash the outside before cutting through to the inside. Think about it! When the knife goes through a tainted skin, it could be dragging whatever germs, etc., that are sure to be on the outside across the fruit you are going to eat on the inside.
Ever think about washing a banana before handing it to your child? Why not? The peel protects the banana but what will protect you from the peel that has been around while and touched and handled in shipping and in the store.


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Tom Easton
In my last essay, I discussed the question of whether there are limits to growth. I noted that endless growth—in population, in fossil fuel use, and even in the global economy–is not possible and that those who insist that it is are guilty of crimes against humanity.
Now I would like to introduce the ecological concept of limiting factors. Simply put, a population can grow only until it uses up the resource in least supply. That resource is the limiting factor.
Consider a car factory. It has fifty car bodies, three dozen chassis, eighty engines, and twelve wheels, with tires. How many cars can it make?
Three, if each one has four wheels. With a little reengineering, you could get four three-wheeled cars. All the bodies, chassis, and engines beyond that are wasted. Wheels are the limiting factor.
The same line of thought applies to populations of humans, other animals, and plants. Since we are chiefly concerned with humans, we can ignore other living things (though they must obey the same rules).
Before we go further, what are the human equivalents of car bodies, chassis, engines, and wheels? We need living space, food, water, and air. Beyond those basics, there is a long list of things we would miss so badly if civilization collapsed (how about toilet paper?) that we might consider them needs as well.
But back to the basics. Living space is not a limiting factor. As is often pointed out by people opposed to idea that there is overpopulation, the entire global stock of humans could be put in Texas, with room left over. Of course, that doesn't count the farms needed to feed the crowd, or the forests needed to supply the TP.
Air—or the oxygen in it—isn't a limiting factor either. There is much more than we need, at least as long as we don't kill off the green plants that replenish the oxygen for us.
Food, on the other hand, is definitely a limiting factor. Russell Hopfenberg points out that "Human Carrying Capacity Is Determined by Food Availability," Population & Environment (November 2003). That is, you can't grow more people than you can feed.
Components of food such as vitamins and minerals are also important, but shortages of these can be made up, at least as long as we can make vitamin pills.
Water—fresh water–comes in because although we need some for drinking and washing, we need a great deal more for irrigating food crops. If we don't have enough water, we don't have enough food. And unfortunately, global climate change (or warming) is projected to increase the frequency of droughts and heat waves, as well as to diminish snow in mountains such as the Sierra Nevadas and even the Himalayas, as well as to make that snow melt earlier in the spring, which will mean less water available during the growing season.
But surely if less water runs down the rivers, farmers can just pump more out of the ground? The trouble is that they've been doing that for decades already. Water tables are dropping, so that it is harder to pump water to the surface. Some aquifers are nearing exhaustion. Try these links for the straight dope:
See also David Pimentel, et al., "Will Limited Land, Water, and Energy Control Human Population Numbers in the Future?" Human Ecology (August 2010).
It seems reasonable to say that the ultimate limiting factor for human beings is water. There is, of course, a huge supply of salt water in the oceans. It's possible to remove the salt from, or desalinate, sea water, but that is a very energy-intensive process. If we become dependent on that, energy supply may be the ultimate limiting factor. There is also a lot of fresh water locked up in glaciers and especially in the ice that covers Antarctica. There have been proposals, and pilot projects, to tow icebergs to places that need water and let them melt. The latest such proposal is described by Avery Thompson, "Cape Town Wants to Tow an Iceberg to Solve Its Water Shortage," Popular Mechanics (July 6, 2018) (https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a22064173/cape-town-wants-to-tow-an-iceberg-to-solve-its-water-shortage/). But that possibility is only good until global warming melts all the ice. That day is centuries off, we think, but…
"Carrying capacity" is another crucial ecological concept. It is defined very simply as the size of the population that the environment can support, or "carry," indefinitely, through both good years and bad. It is not the size of the population that can prosper in good times alone, for such a large population must suffer catastrophically when droughts, floods, or blights arrive or the climate warms or cools. Of course, really bad times do happen, and both local populations and species can go extinct as a result. But you want to put that time off as long as possible.
Carrying capacity is a long-term concept, where "long-term" means not decades or generations, nor even centuries, but millennia or more. It is thus in alarming contrast with what human society's decision-makers think of as long-term—at most, five or ten years.
What is Earth's carrying capacity for human beings? It is surely impossible to set a precise figure on the number of human beings the world can support for the long run. As Joel E. Cohen discusses in How Many People Can the Earth Support? (W. W. Norton, 1996), estimates of Earth's carrying capacity range from under a billion to over a trillion. The precise number depends on our choices of diet, standard of living, level of technology, willingness to share with others at home and abroad, and desire for an intact physical, chemical, and biological environment (including wildlife and natural environments), as well as on whether or not our morality permits restraint in reproduction and our political or religious ideology permits educating and empowering women. The key, Cohen stresses, is human choice.
It is worth stressing that we get the largest carrying capacity only with minimal per capita use of resources (or minimal standard of living). Think of living in a grass shack and burning dung to cook your daily rice or beans. No doctors or hospitals or supermarkets or cars or… And then we are subject to disease and famine as we have not been for the last couple of centuries.
If you want a higher standard of living—something like what you are used to today, if you're reading this online—you will need a much smaller population. If you want that standard of living for everyone, you may need a world population of less than a billion.
Getting there is the problem. I doubt very much that we can do it voluntarily. But running down our fresh water supplies might do the job for us.


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The Beginning of What Will Never Be The Same, or the Artist/Baby Thing
My earliest baby thoughts were part of a fantasy I constructed in my pre-teen years. Having no use for boys, I dreamt that someday my sister and I would buy a huge farmhouse. There, we would raise stray dogs and stray babies, one big happy family. The visuals included outdoor dinners under the trees at very long tables, like in Europe, followed by nights around the campfire, playing guitar and singing James Taylor songs.
Unlike some of the poor, nervous women I see these days in my pre-delivery classes, I'm no stranger to the baby thing..... my parents, good Catholics that they were, had three of us in quick succession, followed by a second round years later. So, at a fairly young age, I diapered, I burped, and I knew how to hold a newborn head so it doesn't fall off. I was so comfortable around babies that when I left home for Paris at age eighteen, I requested an au pair family with an infant, and got one. Taking care of five-month-old François for five hours a day seemed like a fun and fairly effortless means to the end of studying at The Sorbonne and living on the Left Bank for a year. When I returned to the States, I found to my surprise that I missed the physical sensation of constantly having a baby on my hip, and actually had to restrain myself from grabbing women's infants when they would prop them on my framing counter at Prints-N-Things.
Concurrent with my 30-hour workweek putting endless Monet prints behind glass, I was taking a full course load at SUNY Binghamton, where I discovered Women's Studies classes. Endless discussions of Biological Imperative, my ever-strengthening passion for art making, and reading lots of Simone De Beauvoir led me to the conclusion that if I really wanted to accomplish something important in this life, I simply had to be childless. I spent the following 20 years in complete, unwavering devotion to art making and living A Big Life (travel, sexual freedom, dinner parties with interesting people). I let nothing get in my way.
At my ten year high school reunion, I was in the middle of grad school, desperately poor, but doing what I loved, and most of my classmates were passing around baby pictures. After being asked for the tenth time about my marital status, I recall suppressing the distinctly cynical comment lying in wait on the tip of my tongue, "And what have YOU accomplished in your life?.... no, I mean... something that dogs and cows cannot do?"
I honestly was not thinking about children at all while I worked towards getting tenure, finishing that next piece, or procuring that next exhibition. I ignored the boyfriends who told me that I did not know how to relax, and lived to work. But, somewhere along the way, the endless striving, the hundreds of all-nighters, and the constant fixation on the next accomplishment to the exclusion of all else began to feel unbalanced, bordering on pathological. I sometimes found myself in a dark and empty place. By its very nature, the life of a workaholic does not allow for much self reflection: you keep yourself so busy that you never have time to stop and think about why you need to keep yourself so busy.
I began to make room for some other things... redefining my concept of A Big Life. First came the dog, followed by a commitment to a man I actually thought I could live with. This expansion thing felt good, so we worked on a having a baby. We were both open to what the universe would decide for us. Blessed with the gift of passion for my work, I never felt the desperation for pregnancy that I hear so many women my age talk about.... I even began to feel guilty that maybe I did not want a baby badly enough. The fact is, I felt quite confident that I would be happy with or without a child, and could see the pros and cons of each kind of life.
This ambivalence ended sometime last September.
You see, for many years now, I have been making work about human vulnerability and strong emotion, pointing out how American society in particular discourages the display of frailty. I plummeted the depths of my own soul and put it on the canvas. I've made crying self portraits, a series of crying men, references to my hidden psychological maelstroms, and dark familial dysfunctionality.
I thought I was being brave and confrontational. I felt like I was way out there, putting it all on the line, and holding nothing back. "Here I am", I thought, "I have eviscerated myself, and give it as a gift to you, the viewer, so you will not feel alone."
But there I was, this past September, lying on my back in a dark room. They turned on the monitor, squeezed the warm, slippery goo on my belly, and turned on the ultrasound machine. Up on the monitor, I saw a creature, wiggling its butt. I suddenly had the sensation of having lived in a pitch black room for all of my life, and opening the door to a light so bright that I felt certain it would kill me. I quickly closed the door because I couldn't stand it, it took me by surprise, but I had caught a glimpse of what was to come.
I knew in that moment that whatever hell I had been through in my life, however genuine I had been in my efforts to convey that rawness in my work, none of that compared to what I was facing at this instant. I thought of all the proselytizing I had done about the depths of emotion, laying one's self-bare... and realized that I was an imposter; I didn't know what the fuck I was talking about. My daughter is not even here yet, and I can feel my capacity for every possible emotion stretching wide open: my fears for myself are nothing compared to my fears for her, and I can barely imagine how joy might be, amplified to this extent.
I know I am about to experience something far beyond what I could ever envision, as my heart is removed from my body, and I prepare for the day that I hold it in my hands.
Of course, I can't wait to see what it does to my work.
And... more importantly, I remind myself... I can't wait to see what it does to my life.
Labels: artists and motherhood


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Canadians deserve privacy
Dear Editor,
Our privacy, our democracy and our electoral process are at risk due to outdated privacy laws that fail to properly protect people in Canada.
I'm concerned that our political parties are not protecting the personal information they gather from us. I believe that they should be made subject to federal privacy laws. Political parties should follow the same rules companies have to – it's only fair. Privacy matters regardless of who we vote for.
In this election, I believe all the parties should commit to protecting our privacy. Politicians shouldn't exempt themselves from the same privacy laws they make companies follow. Canada's Chief Electoral Office and the Privacy Commissioner of Canada both support amending the law to provide protection for our sensitive political data. I suggest political parties should be made subject to the Personal Information Protection and Electronic Documents Act. To ensure the trust of voters, political parties should make a commitment to change this in their party platforms this election.
Roy Cunningham


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And, like most people, I love a great sense of humor. I like to kid around and playfully tease so it's terribly wonderful when a girl can give it right. If you think we would have something in Lynmouth fucking girl, reply with "Avl" in the subject box. Doreen Age: About Hi i Quit smoking ciggs 4 weeks agao Lynmouth fucking girl and i could sure fuckiny some 42o.