text:
Selten liest man in den Mainstream-Medien eine kritische Sicht auf die tausenden Konjunkturpakete, welche – ultimativ – die Kreditwürdigkeit der Staaten gefährden. Um so mehr freut mich die differenzierte Darstellung von Ralph Bollmann in der TAZ.
Wirtschaftsnobelpreisträger Paul Krugman kritisiert Peer Steinbrück für seine Warnung vor einer neuen Wachstumsblase. Dieser Kritik schließe ich mich nicht an.
Wenn der Konjunkturprogramm-Geist erstmal aus der Flasche ist, dann muss er immer mehr Wünsche erfüllen. Die US-Stahlindustrie fordert die Erhöhung des Konjunkturprogramms auf eine Billionen Dollar.
Der aktuelle Einkaufsmanagerindex zeigt, dass die komplette deutsche Industrie ihre Produktion massiv zurückfährt.
Muslime in den USA sollten besser keine Flugangst haben. Andere Passagiere könnten sich bedroht fühlen und die Muslime des Flugzeugs verwiesen werden.
Niederländer retten den Wohnwagenhersteller Knaus Tabbert. Wer sonst?
Südkoreanischer Export bricht ein.
Auch noch sehr lesenswert ist folgende Beschreibung der Großen Depression. Sie entstand 1997 und ist daher noch unbeeinflusst von den aktuellen Grabenkämpfen zwischen Neo-Keynsianer und dem Rest der Öknonomenwelt. [Der Link ist nun tot. Ich habe den Text unten angehängt.]
Slouching Towards Utopia?: The Economic History of the Twentieth Century
-XIV. The Great Crash and the Great Slump-
J. Bradford DeLong
University of California at Berkeley and NBER
February 1997
* The Great Depression in Outline
* The Great Crash
* Even a Panic Is Not All Together a Bad Thing
* Debt-Deflation
* Golden Fetters
* The Persistence of the Great Depression
The Great Depression in Outline
It is straightforward to narrate the slide of the world into the Great Depression. The 1920's saw a stock market boom in the U.S. as the result of general optimism: businessmen and economists believed that the newly-born Federal Reserve would stabilize the economy, and that the pace of technological progress guaranteed rapidly rising living standards and expanding markets. The U.S. Federal Reserve's attempts in 1928 and 1929 to raise interest rates to discourage stock speculation brought on an initial recession.
Caught by surprise, firms cut back their own plans for further purchase of producer durable goods; firms making producer durables cut back production; out-of-work consumers and those who feared they might soon be out of work cut back purchases of consumer durables, and firms making consumer durables faced falling demand as well.
Falls in prices–deflation–during the Depression set in motion contractions in production which riggered additional falls in prices. With prices falling at ten percent per year, investors could calculate that they would earn less profit investing now than delaying investment until next year when their dollars would stretch ten percent further. Banking panics and the collapse of the world monetary system cast doubt on everyone's credit, and reinforced the belief that now was a time to watch and wait. The slide into the Depression, with increasing unemployment, falling production, and falling prices, continued throughout Herbert Hoover's Presidential term.
There is no fully satisfactory explanation of why the Depression happened when it did. If such depressions were always a possibility in an unregulated capitalist economy, why weren't there two, three, many Great Depressions in the years before World War II? Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz argued that the Depression was the consequence of an incredible sequence of blunders in monetary policy. But those controlling policy during the early 1930s thought they were following the same gold-standard rules of conduct as their predecessors. Were they wrong? If they were wrong, why did they think they were following in the footsteps of their predecessors? If they were not wrong, why was the Great Depression the only Great Depression?
At its nadir, the Depression was collective insanity. Workers were idle because firms would not hire them to work their machines; firms would not hire workers to work machines because they saw no market for goods; and there was no market for goods because workers had no incomes to spend. Orwell's account of the Depression in Britain, The Road to Wigan Pier, speaks of "…several hundred men risk[ing] their lives and several hundred women scrabbl[ing] in the mud for hours… searching eagerly for tiny chips of coal" in slagheaps so they could heat their homes. For them, this arduously-gained "free" coal was "more important almost than food." All around them the machinery they had previously used to mine in five minutes more than they could gather in a day stood idle.
The United States Business Cycle, 1890-1940
The Great Depression has central place in twentieth century economic history. In its shadow, all other depressions are insignificant. Whether assessed by the relative shortfall of production from trend, by the duration of slack production, or by the product-depth times duration-of these two measures, the Great Depression is an order of magnitude larger than other depressions: it is off the scale. All other depressions and recessions are from an aggregate perspective (although not from the perspective of those left unemployed or bankrupt) little more than ripples on the tide of ongoing economic growth. The Great Depression cast the survival of the economic system, and the political order, into serious doubt.
The United States Business Cycle, 1950-1990
The Great Crash
The U.S. stock market boomed in the 1920s. Prices reached levels, measured as a multiple of corporate dividends or corporate earnings, that made no sense in terms of traditional patterns and rules of thumb for valuation. A range of evidence suggests that at the market peak in September 1929 something like forty percent of stock market values were pure air: prices above fundamental values for no reason other than that a wide cross-section of investors thought that the stock market would go up because it had gone up.
By 1928 and 1929 the Federal Reserve was worried about the high level of the stock market. It feared that the "bubble" component of stock prices might burst suddenly. When it did burst, pieces of the financial system might be suddenly revealed to be insolvent, the network of financial intermediation might well be damaged, investment might fall, and recession might result. It seemed better to the Federal Reserve in 1928 and 1929 to try to "cool off" the market by making borrowing money for stock speculation difficult and costly by raising interest rates. They accepted the risk that the increase in interest rates might bring on the recession that they hoped could be avoided if the market could be "cooled off": all policy options seemed to have possible unfavorable consequences.
In later years some, Friedrich Hayek for one, were to claim that the Federal Reserve had created the stock market boom, the subsequent crash, and the Great Depression through "easy money"policies.
pp. 161-2: "[U]p to 1927 I should have expected that the subsequent depression would be very mild. But in that year an entirely unprecedented action was taken by the American monetary authorities [who] succeeded, by means of an easy-money policy, inaugurated as soon as the symptoms of an impending reaction were noticed, in prolonging the boom for two years beyond what would otherwise have been its natural end. And when the crisis finally occurred, deliberate attempts were made to prevent, by all conceivable means, the normal process of liquidation."
Those making such claims for over-easy policy appear to have spent no time looking at the evidence. Weight of opinion and evidence on the other side: the Federal Reserve's fear of excessive speculation led it into a far too deflationary policy in the late 1920s: "destroying the village in order to save it."
The U.S. economy was already past the peak of the business cycle when the stock market crashed in October of 1929. So it looks as though the Federal Reserve did "overdo it"–did raise interest rates too much, and bring on the recession that they had hoped to avoid.
The stock market did crash in October of 1929; "Black Tuesday", October 29, 1929, saw American common stocks lose something like a tenth of their value. That it was ripe for a bursting of the bubble is well known; the exact reasons why the bubble burst then are unknowable; more important are the consequences of the bursting of the bubble.
The stock market crash of 1929 greatly added to economic uncertainty: no one at the time knew what its consequences were going to be. The natural thing to do when something that you do not understand has happened is to pause and wait until the situation becomes clearer. Thus firms cut back their own plans for further purchase of producer durable goods. Consumers cut back purchases of consumer durables. The increase in uncertainty caused by the stock market crash amplified the magnitude of the initial recession.
Even a Panic Is Not Altogether a Bad Thing:
The first instinct of governments and central banks faced with this gathering Depression began was to do nothing. Businessmen, economists, and politicians (memorably Secretary of the Treasury Mellon) expected the recession of 1929-1930 to be self-limiting. Earlier recessions had come to an end when the gap between actual and trend production was as large as in 1930. They expected workers with idle hands and capitalists with idle machines to try to undersell their still at-work peers. Prices would fall. When prices fell enough, entrepreneurs would gamble that even with slack demand production would be profitable at the new, lower wages. Production would then resume.
Throughout the decline–which carried production per worker down to a level 40 percent below that which it had attained in 1929, and which saw the unemployment rise to take in more than a quarter of the labor force–the government did not try to prop up aggregate demand. The Federal Reserve did not use open market operations to keep the money supply from falling. Instead the only significant systematic use of open market operations was in the other direction: to raise interest rates and discourage gold outflows after the United Kingdom abandoned the gold standard in the fall of 1931. The Federal Reserve thought it knew what it was doing: it was letting the private sector handle the Depression in its own fashion. It saw the private sector's task as the "liquidation" of the American economy. And it feared that expansionary monetary policy would impede the necessary private-sector process of readjustment.
Contemplating the wreck of his country's economy and his own political career, Herbert Hoover wrote bitterly in retrospect about those in his administration who had advised inaction during the downslide:
The 'leave-it-alone liquidationists' headed by Secretary of the Treasury Mellonfelt that government must keep its hands off and let the slump liquidate itself. Mr. Mellon had only one formula: 'Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate'.He held that even panic was not altogether a bad thing. He said: 'It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people'
But Hoover had been one of the most enthusiastic proponents of "liquidationism" during the Great Depression. And the unwillingness to use policy to prop up the economy during the slide into the Depression was backed by a large chorus, and approved by the most eminent economists.
For example, from Harvard Joseph Schumpeter argued that there was a "presumption against remedial measures which work through money and credit. Policies of this class are particularly apt to produce additional trouble for the future." From Schumpeter's perspective, "depressions are not simply evils, which we might attempt to suppress, butforms of something which has to be done, namely, adjustment to change." This socially productive function of depressions creates "the chief difficulty" faced by economic policy makers. For "most of what would be effective in remedying a depression would be equally effective in preventing this adjustment."
From London, Friedrich Hayek found it:
…still more difficult to see what lasting good effects can come from credit expansion. The thing which is most needed to secure healthy conditions is the most speedy and complete adaptation possible of the structure of production.If the proportion as determined by the voluntary decisions of individuals is distorted by the creation of artificial demand resources [are] again led into a wrong direction and a definite and lasting adjustment is again postponed.The only way permanently to 'mobilise' all available resources is, thereforeto leave it to time to effect a permanent cure by the slow process of adapting the structure of production…
Hayek and company believed that enterprises are gambles which sometimes fail: a future comes to pass in which certain investments should not have been made. The best that can be done in such circumstances is to shut down those production processes that turned out to have been based on assumptions about future demands that did not come to pass. The liquidation of such investments and businesses releases factors of production from unprofitable uses; they can then be redeployed in other sectors of the technologically dynamic economy. Without the initial liquidation the redeployment cannot take place. And, said Hayek, depressions are this process of liquidation and preparation for the redeployment of resources.
As Schumpeter put it, policy does not allow a choice between depression and no depression, but between depression now and a worse depression later: "inflation pushed far enough [would] undoubtedly turn depression into the sham prosperity so familiar from European postwar experience, [and]… would, in the end, lead to a collapse worse than the one it was called in to remedy." For "recovery is sound only if it does come of itself. For any revival which is merely due to artificial stimulus leaves part of the work of depressions undone and adds, to an undigested remnant of maladjustment, new maladjustment of its own which has to be liquidated in turn, thus threatening business with another [worse] crisis ahead"
This doctrine–that in the long run the Great Depression would turn out to have been "good medicine" for the economy, and that proponents of stimulative policies were shortsighted enemies of the public welfare–drew anguished cries of dissent from those less hindered by their theoretical blinders. British economist Ralph Hawtrey scorned those who, like Robbins and Hayek, wrote at the nadir of the Great Depression that the greatest danger the economy faced was inflation. It was, Hawtrey said, the equivalent of "Crying, 'Fire! Fire!' in Noah's flood."
John Maynard Keynes also tried to bury the liquidationists in ridicule. Later on Milton Friedman would recall that at the Chicago where he went to graduate school such dangerous nonsense was not taught–but that he understood why at Harvard-where such nonsense was taught-bright young economists might rebel, reject their teachers' macroeconomics, and become followers of Keynes. Friedman thought that Keynesianism was wrong–but not crazy.
However, the "liquidationist" view carried the day. Even governments that had unrestricted international freedom of action–like France and the United States with their massive gold reserves–tended not to pursue expansionary monetary and fiscal policies on the grounds that such would reduce investor "confidence" and hinder the process of liquidation, reallocation, and the resumption of private investment.
Thus governments strained their muscles to balance their budgets–thus further depressing demand–and to reduce wages and prices–in order to restore "competitiveness" and balance to their economies. In Germany the Chancellor–the Prime Minister–Heinrich Bruening decreed a ten percent cut in prices, and a ten to fifteen percent cut in wages. But every step taken in pursuit of financial orthodoxy made matters worse.
For once the declines in wages and prices in the Great Depression had passed some critical value, they knocked the economy out of its normal business-cycle pattern. Severe deflation had consequences that were much me than an amplification of the modest five to ten percent falls in prices that had been seen in past depressions.
When banks make loans, they allow beforehand for some measure of fluctuation in the value of the assets pledged as security for their loans: even some diminuation of the value of their collateral will not cause banks to panic, because if the borrower defaults they will still be able to recover their loan principal as long as the decline in the value of the collateral is not too high.
But what happens when deflation reaches the previously never seen amount of thirty, forty, or fifty percent–as it did in the Great Depression? Banks become keenly aware that their loan principal is no longer safe: that if the borrower defaults, they no longer have recourse to sufficient collateral to recover their loan principal. if the borrower defaults, and if bank depositors take the default as a signal that it is time for them to withdraw their deposits, the bank collapses.
As Keynes, wrote, once banks realize that deflation has significantly impaired the value of their collateral:
…they become particularly anxious that the remainder of their assets should be as liquid and as free from risk as it is possible to make them. This reacts in all sorts of silent and unobserved ways on new enterprise. for it means that banks are less willing than they would normally be to finance any project…
In looking at the tracks of interest rates in the Great Depression, you can see a steady widening of the gap between safe interest rates on government securities and the interest rates that borrowing companies had to pay. Even though credit was ample–in the sense that borrowers with perfect and unimpaired collateral could obtain loans at extremely low interest rates–the businesses in the economy (few of which had perfect and unimpaired collateral) found it next to impossible to obtain capital to finance investment.
Thus the banking system freezes up. It no longer performs its social function of channeling purchasing power from savers to investors. As a result private investment collapses; falling investment produces more unemployment, excess capacity, futher falls in prices, and more deflation; and further deflation renders the banking system even more insolvent.
Morever, not only past deflation but also expected future deflation depresses investment. Why invest now if you expect deflation, so that everything you would buy this year will be ten percent cheaper next year?
In the end the spiral of deflation will continue to depress the economy until something is done to restore solvency to the banking system, and break the anticipations of further falls in prices. A few economists understood this process at work during the Great Depression–Irving Fisher, John Maynard Keynes, R.G. Hawtrey–but they did not walk the corridors of power at the nadir of the Great Depression.
Golden Fetters
Countries without massive gold reserves did not have the luxury of even attempting to expand their economies, at least not until they abandoned the gold standard, let their exchange rates float freely, and so cast off their "golden fetters." A government that wished to stimulate demand in the Great Depression would seek to inject credit and bring down interest rates to encourage investment. But additional credit would mean higher imports, and lower interest rates would encourage domestic nvestors to invest abroad. The result would be a balance-of-payments gap: economic expansion at home was inconsistent with gold convertibility. And few countries wished to abandon the gold standard at the start of the Great Depression.
There were exceptions that proved the rule. Scandinavian countries cast off their "golden fetters" at the start of the Great Depression, pursued policies of stabilizing nominal demand under the intellectual influence of the Stockholm School of economists, and did relatively well. In Japan fiscal orthodoxy and budget balance were abandoned in 1931, when Korekiyo Takahashi became Minister of Finance. Industrial production in Japan in 1936 was half again as much as it had been in 1928; in Japan the Great Depression was over by 1932.
But these were unusual exceptions.
Before World War I the major industrial economies might have had some freedom of action. Before the war major industrial countries' commitment to the gold standard was unquestioned. Whenever an exchange rate fell to the lowest "gold point", the bottom of the band and the point at which it was profitable to begin shipping gold out of the country, capital would flow in betting on the future recovery of the exchange rate to the mid-point of its band, making the central bank's task of maintaining convertibility easy.
But in the 1920s, with governments under greater pressure from newly expande electorates to generate prosperity, it was not clear that the country was committed to the gold standard. Speculators, instead, began to pull their capital out of a country facing a balance-of-payments deficit, on the principal that the loss they would suffer should the currency recovery would be dwarfed by their profits if they could take advantage of a full-fledged devaluation.
With the growth of concern about currencies, central bankers wondered if the gold-exchange standard–by which they kept their reserves in sterling or in dollars–was wise. What if the pound or the dollar devalued? As the Great Depression gathered force, central banks fell back on gold as their principal reserve, increasing strains on the system.
One might have thought that those countries that had restored their pre-World War I parities would be immune from destabilizing speculation. Had not Britain returned to the gold standard at the pre-World War I parity precisely to give investors confidence that its commitment to the gold standard was absolute? But governments like Britain and the United States that had maintained pre-World War I parities found themselves lacking credibility. Because they had not experienced the 1920s as a decade of inflation, they lacked the tacit political consensus that inflation was to be avoided at all costs. By contrast countries that had undergone inflation in the 1970s found for the most part that they had high credibility, and that their exchange rates came under little speculative attack.
Austria's major bank, the Credit Anstalt, was revealed to be bankrupt in May 1931. Its deposits were so large that freezing them while bankruptcy was carried through would have destroyed the Austrian economy, hence the governmetn stepped in to guarantee deposits. The resulting expansion of the currency was inconsistent with gold-standard discipline. Savers liquidated their deposits and began to transfer funds out of the country in order to avoid the capital losses that would have been associated with a devaluation.
In order to keep its banking system from collapsing and in order to defend the gold standard, the Austrian central bank needed more gold to serve as an internal reserve to keep payments flowing and an external reserve to meet the demand triggered by incipient capital flight. The Bank for International Settlements began to host negotiations to coordinate international financial cooperation.
It is possible that rapid and successful conclusion of these negotiations might have stopped the spread of the Great Depression in mid-1931. Austria was a small country with a population well under ten million. There was not that much capital to flee. A sizable international loan to Austria's central bank would have allowed it to prop up its internal banking system and maintain convertibility. A month later those whose capital had fled would realize that the crisis was over, and that they had lost a percent of two of their wealth in fees and exchange costs in the capital flight. Other speculators would observe that the world's governments were serious in their commitment to the gold standard, that the potential foreign exchange reserves of any one country were the world's, and thus that the likelihood of a speculative attack succeeding in inducing a devaluation was small.
Perhaps investors would then have begun returning gold to central banks in exchange for interest-bearing assets, would have begun to shrink down their demand for liquidity, and would have begun to boost worldwide investment. The Economist's Berlin correspondent thought that it might well have done the job:
It was clear from the beginning… that such an institution [as the Credit-Anstalt] could not collapse without the most serious consequences, but the fire might have been localized if the fire brigade had arrived quickly enough on the scene. It was hte delay of several weeks in rendering effective international assistance to the Credit Anstalt which allowed the fire to spread so widely.
We don't know because it was not tried. The substantial loan to Austria was not made. Speculators continued to bet on devaluation, investors continued to hoard gold, the preference for liqidity continued to rise, and investment continued to fall.
The substantial loan to Austria was not made because French internal politics entered the picture. At the beginning of his political carreer French Premier Pierre Laval had styled himself a politician of the left: the Clarence Darrow of France. But by the early 1930s he was shifting to the position of a strong nationalist. He blocked the proposed international support package for Austria, insisting that if France was to contribute France had to get something out of it. The price that Laval demanded was made up of a series of diplomatic concessions, most important of which was the renunciation of a prospective customs union with Germany. To Laval, playing the nationalist card in French politics, nothing that benefited Germany could be allowed by France.
The Austrian government refused to make the required political concessions fast enough for negotiations to be completed in time to be of use. Austria lost: the support package collapsed, and the Austrian economy abandoned the gold standard and went into recession. In the long run France lost too: what might have been a chance to moderate the Great Depression was lost. The ultimate consequences for France were dire. The rise of Adolf Hitler in Germany is inconceivable in the absence of the Great Depression. Nine years after the Credit-Anstalt crisis the French governmentsurrendered to the Nazis.
Pierre Laval was not greatly inconvenienced at first by the Nazi conquest of Europe. He discovered that he was not a leftist at all but a Fascist. He became the second most powerful figure, and the true focus of decision making, in France's wartime collaborationist Vichy government. He was executed for treason after the end of World War II.
Back in 1931, speculators observed that the international financial community did not support currencies that came under pressure. They wondered which country would be next to devalue–and thus which country to pull their money out of fast if they did not want to lose the thirty percent or so of gold value that would be lost in a devaluation. The wave of bear speculation moved on to Hungary, Germany, and Britain. By the fall of 1931 Britain had abandoned the gold standard.
Thus international capital flows–in this case driven by fear of being caught in a devaluation–triggered devaluations and brought down the interwar gold standard. In a well-functioning gold standard, such impulses would have been damped by the credibility of the commitment to gold and by international cooperation. But in the early 1930s the commitment to gold had no credibility. And there was no international cooperation.
In the absence of international cooperation, the legacy of the gold standard was to make it impossible for any country to fight the Depression within its borders. Stimulative monetary and fiscal policies were inconsistent with the gold standard. And efforts to contain domestic banking crises were thwarted and rendered counterproductive because of the fear that rescuing the banking system or lowering interest rates was the prelude to devaluation.
As Eichengreen has pointed out, once countries had cast off the golden fetters of the interwar gold standard, the crisis was transformed into an opportunity. Policies to expand demand and production no longer required international cooperation once the gold standard framework had been abandoned. But as he has also pointed out, "liquidationism"–and fears of financial and political chaos–kept governments from beginning to fight the Depression in a serious manner for much of the 1930s.
The Great Depression is the greatest case of self-inflicted economic catastrophe in the twentieth century. As Keynes wrote at its very start, in 1930, the world was "… as capable as before of affording for every one a high standard of life…. But today we have involved ourselves in a colossal muddle, having blundered in the control of a delicate machine, the working of which we do not understand." Keynes feared that "the slump" that he saw in 1930 "may pass over into a depression, accompanied by a sagging price level, which might last for years with untold damage to the material wealth and to the social stability of every country alike." He called for resolute, coordinated monetary expansion by the major industrial economies to "restore confidence in the international long-term bond market… restore [raise] prices and profits, so that in due course the wheels of the world's commerce would go round again."
Charles Kindleberger has pointed out that such action never emerges from committees, or from international meetings. Before World War I the international gold standard was kept on track because there was a single, obvious, dominant power in the world economy: Britain. Everybody knew that Britain was the "hegemon", and so everyone adjusted their behavior to conform with the rules of the game and the expectations of behavior laid down in London. Similarly, after World War II the "hegemon" for more than a full generation was the United States. And once again, the existence of a dominant power in international finance–a power that had the capability to take effective action to shape the pattern of international finance all by itself if it wished–led to a relatively stable and well-functioning system.
But during the interwar period there was no hegemon: no power could shape the international economic environment through its own actions alone. Britain tried, attempting to restore confidence in the gold standard by the restoration of sterling, and failed. America might have succeeded had it tried–but successful policy requires that the hegemon recognize its leading position, which the interwar U.S. did not do. Thus "resolute, coordinated" action to expand demand and halt the depression did not emerge from the leading industrial power. And it was very unlikely to be generated by any committee operating via consensus.
So the action was not forthcoming. And Keynes's fears came to pass.
The Persistence of the Great Depression
The "liquidationist" monetary-overninvestment view of business cycles collapsed in the Great Depression. It had provided a framework for economists to analyze the busts of the nineteenth and early twentieth century,but its interpretation of the Great Depression was absurd. Periods of high unemployment lasted not for months or years but for decades. They lasted too long to be dismissed as frictions that resulted as the market reallocated productive resources away from what were now seen as low value goods.
In response to the high persistence of unemployment in the interwar years, economists abandoned the idea that business cycles were the economy's best feasible response to inevitable shocks to present circumstances and expectations about the future, and that the Great Depression had been generated by the largest such shock ever seen. Instead, they turned to alternative–Keynesian–approaches to explain the persistence of high unemployment, even though these alternative approaches were not so much theories of business cycles as policy recommendations accompanied by promises that supporting theories would be constructed later.
Economists today have faith in market economies' abilities to eventually cure depressions even in the presence of unsound economic policies. Depressions and high unemployment arise when markets malfunction, or fail to find the correct equilibrium. But excess supply of labor and excess supply of goods should eventually register. Economists track channel after channel through which the market economic system can right itself from a depression and restoer full employment equilibrium. How well did these "natural" full employment equilibrium-restoring forces work in the Great Depression?
The answer is: not at all well.
Some nations–Scandinavian countries that abandoned the gold standard early–experienced the Great Depression as little more than an ordinary recession, albeit in some cases beginning from a position of relatively high unemployment in 1929. The collapse of international trade in the 1930s idled resources in specialized export industries, but for countries that had abandoned the gold standard early domestic manufacturing took up the slack and returned GNP and employment to relatively high levels by the middle of the decade. These fortunate nations experienced the Great Depression as more-or-less another episode of "normal" cyclical unemployment in response to a large shock, in this case the world market's signal that export sectors were too large.
Other countries–largely nations like the United States and France that remained on the gold standard beyond 1930-31–were not so fortunate. Their unemployment rose to and remained at levels that seemed too high to square with the normal mechanisms of standard business cycles. Their experiencewas a key factor leading economists away from "monetary overinvestment" theories and toward "underemployment semi-equilibrium" theories.
Even granted that policies to fight the Great Depression were not forthcoming, the persistence of the Depression still comes as a shock. In a normal pre-Great Depression business cycle, the economy the economy closes 97% of the gap back to usual employment in three years. But the Depression shows a different picture: the economy closed only half of the gap back to full employment in three years.
It is helpful to group the explanations for why Depression-era unemployment was so high and lasted so long along two axes: there are two candidates to take the blame for the persistence of unemployment during the Depression: the government, and the market.
Government-generated unemployment was widespread. In Britain some unemployment (although a small share during the peak unemployment years of the early 1930's) was surely generated by the government's unemployment insurance system. Thomas cites Eichengreen's earlier work, which presented a best estimate that some two or three percentage points of unemployment in 1929-32 could be attributed to the operation of the relief system. Thomas attributes some unemployment among secondary workers and unskilled young men with large families to the "OXO" system in which firms would systematically rotate two platoons of workers between time at work and time receiving unemployment benefit, thus turning unemployment insurance into a highly-subsidized work sharing scheme. Men receiving the standard unemployment benefit in February 1931 had on average experienced 8.6 different spells of employment during the past year, working an average of 151 days. Given such rapid turnover it is not at all implausible to argue that the availability of unemployment benefit, even with relatively low replacement rates, allowed workers to remain in labor market positions in which they were employed only half the time instead of migrating to some other industry. Thus it is possible that an underlying four or five percent of excess British unemployment may well have been maintained by the government's social policy.
In the United States even at the very end of the Depression unemployment was high. In the 1940 census some 11.1% of U.S. heads of household were counted as unemployed, of whom almost half-4.9% of all heads of household-held relief jobs. Michael Darby has argued that the government had managed to create a situation in which those on relief found themselves with little incentive to register their labor supply on the private-sector job market, and yet were doing little socially productive work. Relief jobs were attractive to many, in spite of their low levels of relief wages relative to average private sector wages. Relief jobs were secure and required little skill. The risk-averse or the lesser-skilled might well have found that their best option was to stay on relief jobs, and be counted as unemployed, rather than take even an immediately available private sector job.
In each of these cases there is no clear alternative way of organizing the unemployment insurance system that would have been a clearly better policy. A good society should offer support to those blocked from earning their wages in the market. And a well-functioning economy should create incentives for the unemployed to strongly register their excess supply of labor in the market. These two goals are inevitably in tension. The inescapable problem was that relief payments were too high for the short-term and too low for the long-term unemployed, and that there was no good way to structure relief programs to tell these two groups apart ex ante. William Beveridge was among the first to lay out the policy dilemma: the long-term unemployed "need… more money rather than less than those who have had short periods of unemployment. Yet they can hardly be given more money without… [creating an incentive] to settle down into permanent unemployment." Moreover, few of the long-term unemployed "escape physical and psychological deterioration through long idleness."
Nevertheless, a large part of the puzzle remains: roughly half of Depression unemployment was concentrated among long-term unemployed who could not take advantage of subsidized relief-work schemes.
This form of unemployment, principally long-term and somewhat of a residual category is, in the eyes of Eichengreen and Hatton and their contributors, the key to the persistence of the Depression. Long-term unemployment was strongly present in those countries that suffered worst from the Depression, including non-European nations like Australia, Canada, and the United States and European nations like Britain, Germany, Italy, and the gold block nations of France and Belgium. Of these only Germany achieved a strong recovery from the Depression in the 1930's.
Long-term unemployment means that the burden of economic dislocation is unequally borne. Since the prices workers must pay often fall faster than wages, the welfare of those who remain employed frequently rises in a depression. Those who become and stay unemployed bear far more than their share of the burden of a depression. Moreover the reintegration of the unemployed into even a smoothly-functioning market economy may prove difficult, for what employer would not prefer a fresh entrant into the labor force to someone out of work for years? The simple fact that an economy has recently undergone a period of mass unemployment may make it difficult to attain levels of employment and boom that a luckier economy attains as a matter of course.Once an economy had fallen deeply into the Great Depression, devalued exchange rates, prudent and moderate government budget deficits (as opposed to the deficits involved in fighting major wars), and the passage of time all appeared equally ineffective ways of dealing with long-term unemployment. Highly centralized and unionized labor markets like Australia's and decentralized and laissez-faire labor markets like that of the United States did equally poorly in dealing with long-term unemployment. Fascist "solutions" were equally unsuccessful, as the case of Italy shows, unless accompanied by rapid rearmament as in Germany.
Even today, economists have no clean answers to the question of why the private sector could not find ways to employ its long-term unemployed. The very extent of persistent unemployment in spite of different labor market structures and national institutions suggests that theories that find one key failure responsible should be taken with a grain of salt.
But should we be surprised that the long-term unemployed do not register their labor supply proportionately strongly? They might accurately suspect that they will be at the end of every selection queue. In the end it was the coming of World War II and its associated demand for military goods that made private sector employers wish to hire the long-term unemployed at wages they would accept.
At first the unemployed searched eagerly and diligently for alternative sources of work. But if four months or so passed without successful reemployment, the unemployed tended to become discouraged and distraught. After eight months of continuous unemployment, the typical unemployed worker still searches for a job, but in a desultory fashion and without much hope. And within a year of becoming unemployed the worker is out of the labor market for all practical purposes: a job must arrive at his or her door, grab him or her by the scruff of the neck, and through him or her back into the nine-to-five routine if he or she is to be employed again.
This is the pattern of the long-term unemployed in the Great Depression; this is the pattern of the long-term unemployed in western europe in the 1990s. It appears to take an extraordinarily high-pressure labor market, like that of World War II, to successfully reemploy the long-term unemployed.


text:
Criminal lawyer Darryl Annett has been practising law for more than 35 years. As the new 'humanitarian partner' for Salvos Legal in Melbourne, he tells Jessica Morris why he is so passionate about using his skills to help those in need.
How did you become interested in law?
My choice to study law was influenced significantly by my education, in particular by a Christian Brother who talked to all his students about areas of interest, and our skills and pathways in further education after secondary school.
I confess I had a vague interest in psychology, but he urged me to consider law. In the end I put law as my first preference, and was successful. I did law at Monash, which required students do a double degree, so I did a minor sequence in psychology in my first degree. Somewhat ironically I was offered a position at the end of second year to transfer to psychology but elected to stay in law.
Salvos Legal has been in Sydney and Brisbane for several years. Why are its services needed in Melbourne?
In Melbourne there's been a real focus on homelessness and the people who are on the margins, and a lot of the services and government agencies have struggled to come up with appropriate responses. It seems to me that while Salvos Legal certainly hasn't got all the answers, it offers a significant contribution of protecting the interests of people who are missing out.
Why do so many people experiencing homelessness need legal services?
It is a situation which tends to bring the person to the attention of the community
—both its structures and its members. It can also bring the person into conflict. A shopkeeper may complain about a homeless person sitting near their business and confront them. The police may intervene. Hunger may drive the person to minor theft, or travelling on public transport without tickets.
The absence of a 'fixed address' makes contact difficult, and recipients are more likely to miss communications. People who are homeless are often in chaotic circumstances and find it difficult to advocate effectively on their own behalf; they generally find it difficult to chart the processes and requirements of society, including the instruments of government.
There is also an issue around successfully connecting conventional legal support services to those who are homeless because of the transient and often disorganised nature of their life.
Once Salvos Legal is set up in Melbourne, what is the procedure for someone who wants your assistance, or who would like to volunteer?
Our plan is to establish the Advice Bureau network as it exists in Sydney and Brisbane already. This will extend our already strong team of skilled and passionate lawyers and migration agents (and barristers who can offer their services free of charge) to Melbourne. We also have a telephone advice service, which is already available to Victorian clients. Advice is given Wednesdays 10 am–4 pm, and operates via an appointment service.
Overall, we can provide free legal services in relation to the following areas:
• police matters
• family and children's law
• migration and refugee law
• human rights and public interest law
• credit and debt
• housing law
• social security law
This may be high-end and well-resourced one-off advice, limited assistance or even full representation (subject to our Means and Merits Test) in circumstances where disadvantaged individuals are facing social injustice.
Volunteers can contact our volunteer co-ordinator, Sophia McCrindle, on phone 02 8202 1500; fax 02 8202 1590; email firstname.lastname@example.com
How does Salvos Legal services both fulfil and support the mission of the Army?
Our mission is to provide holistic justice funded by a competitively priced commercial legal service to the general public. We are a firm of leading professionals with various areas of expertise who offer our skill and experience. We will strive to create systemic change in the availability of access to justice for all people so that no- one is without a trusted adviser to provide comfort and counsel in their time of need.
Our aim is not only to exist as a law firm. We recognise that our clients often have other pressing non-legal needs and are managing other complicated issues in their lives. To this end, we can engage clients with other Salvation Army social and pastoral services such as drug and alcohol recovery, employment assistance, housing, welfare, counselling, financial management and aged care.
For more information about Salvos Legal, visit salvoslegal.com.au.

subset: commoncrawl


text: The Semerian Commonwealth's cultural aspects, according to its history, heritage, and scientific capabilities, seem to mirror that of an admixture between Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union, North Korea, and, at some extent, 19th century Europe. Among the citizens of the Commonwealth are the promoters of its state religion, who are secretly under the watchful eyes of the Semerian Ministry of Faith within every corner and street. Working conditions tends to be uniquely benefitial and pleasing as workers enjoy their fair payment, despite the regime's abolishment of the labor unions. Feminism is also common, as women share a strictly equal status with men, especially in politics. While being a religiously-fanatical nation, the Commonwealth also appears to promote science and technology, viewing them as the "pillar of Semerian civilization", as stated by Garrundei Cezar himself. The middle-class makes up the majority of the Commonwealth's population, within and beyond the planet Gormelar Prime. The "lesser races", such as humans, are not considered as part of society, as they are viewed as inferior by the regime and see them only as slaves destined only to be owned by those above them. While caring less about class status and gender and more on race, sexuality, and political ideology, the Semerian Commonwealth holds highly Darwinist views of society that give support for the "strong and fit" and casting out the "weak, corrupt, and sickly", regardless if one is either poor or rich. one example includes the execution of greedy businessmen who fail to give away their money to the war effort. Another includes a worker's uprising within a small town that was eventually, and easily, crushed by the Semerian military. Belorgian Beetles are often domesticated as pets for many Semerian families of any status, although a large number of them can only be found on Karuusa IV.


text:
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text:
DNS Rebinding Is Back and Exposing Half a Billion IoT Devices to Attack
DNS Rebinding Is Back and Exposing Half a Billion IoT Devices to Attack
DNS rebinding is posing a serious threat to IoT and unmanaged devices. Click here to learn more about DNS rebinding and what you can do to protect your devices.
Join the DZone community and get the full member experience.Join For Free
It's been a relatively quiet year when it comes to cyber security attacks. While there have been plenty of small attacks, including ones where we've seen security vulnerabilities exposed, and we've not seen a resurgence of the international widescale ransomware attacks of last year like wannacry and notpetya. But, there have — of course — been plenty of attacks with everything from an attack on the City of Atlanta to an attack on the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics. Unsurprisingly, IoT remains a persistent pain point for all things cybersecurity, but, with a twist, DNS rebinding is back.
According to cybersecurity company Armis (who discovered the Blueborne vulnerability in 2017), there are over half a million devices that are vulnerable around the world. IoT security lends no favors with no real industry standards or laws. This demonstrates why it has been determined that nearly half a billion devices are vulnerable worldwide. It's not only that many connected devices have appallingly bad security, but DNS rebinding bypasses traditional security tech. Most companies can't see or monitor connected devices and are unable to determine if they're compromised. Furthermore, patching connected devices is difficult at scale.
Armis has found that the issue impacts hundreds of millions of IoT and other unmanaged devices used inside almost every enterprise. From smart TVs to printers, digital assistants to IP phones and more, the exposure leaves organizations vulnerable to compromise, data exfiltration, and to devices getting hijacked for another Mirai-like attack.
What Is DNS Rebinding?
DNS rebinding takes advantage of a nearly decade-old flaw in web browsers that allow a remote attacker to bypass a victim's network firewall and use their web browser as a proxy to communicate directly with vulnerable devices on the local network.
An example of a vulnerable device is one that is running an unauthenticated protocol like Universal Plug and Play (UPnP) or HTTP (used on unencrypted web servers). These protocols are commonly used to host administrative consoles (for routers, printers, IP cameras), allow easy access to the device's services (for example, streaming video players), and are pervasive in businesses.
Vulnerabilities Are Everywhere
The Armis research team found that large enterprises are particularly exposed to DNS rebinding attacks. Just this week, Cisco Systems is issuing software updates to tackle a high-risk vulnerability in several VoIP phone models. This vulnerability could allow a remote attacker to perform a command injection and execute commands with the privileges of the web server. This is the type of scenario that can be leveraged via a DNS Rebinding attack.
Last month, IP Security Cameras (an ironic name in this particular instance) were identified among the most at risk amongst the 10 vulnerabilities published in Axis and Foscam cameras.
Printers — one of the least managed, most poorly configured devices — were also identified in their research. Aside from adjusting basic network configurations, enterprises typically deploy printers with default settings, making them an ideal target for a DNS rebinding attack. Once compromised, printers can be a vector through which an attacker:
- Exfiltrates information by downloading documents scanned, stored, or cached on the printer
- Launches a larger attack within the enterprise, similar to how an attacker used a fish tank thermostat to exfiltrate 10 GB of data from a casino in North America to a remote server in Finland.
How It Works
For anybody who thinks IoT devices are safe because they sit behind a firewall, this is not the case. DNS rebinding manipulates the trust model between browsers and the outside world, effectively allowing a remote attacker to compromise IoT devices, just as if the attacker were already on the internal network. Here's how a DNS rebinding attack works:
Step 1: Leverage the User's Browser
- The user clicks on a link (phishing or not) that takes them to a malicious site, or a site with malicious JavaScript.
Step 2: Scan the Local Network to Detect the Presence of a Particular Type of Device
- Then, the browser sends the results back to the malicious website.
Again, since all of this activity appears to be normal end-user communication from the perspective of the firewall, it does not block any of the traffic.
It is important to note that steps 1 and 2 take place the minute the user enters a site that hosts the malicious JavaScript. And, within that time, the attacker is effectively inside the company network.
Step 3: Access the IoT device
- The malicious website sends an appropriate set of commands to the end user's browser, for example, commands to log into the HTTP web server of a security camera on the internal network.
- Using DNS rebinding, the browser sends those commands directly to the IP address of the IoT device inside the private network.
The command that the browser sends can control the IoT device, compromise the device, or extract information such as unique identifiers and Wi-Fi access point SSIDs. Since all of this traffic is between the browser on the end user's laptop or desktop and the IoT device, the firewall never sees this traffic, and, thus, it can't block any of it.
Manufacturers of IoT devices typically assume that other devices on the same network are trusted. Thus, the devices ship with open, unencrypted services, like HTTP, and trust the malicious commands executed by the local end user's browser in this phase of the attack.
Step 4: Establish an Outbound Connection to a C and C Server Directly From the Compromised IoT/Unmanaged Device
The firewall typically considers outbound connections to be safe, so this connection is not scrutinized or blocked by the firewall in the same way that an inbound connection would be. The firewall is working exactly as it was designed and exactly how it's configured. Still, the attacker is now inside the network with a persistent presence.
Not All Is Lost: Here's How to Protect Yourself:
Short of redesigning how browsers and DNS servers work, there are some steps that you can take to protect your organization from a DNS rebinding attack taking over IoT and unmanaged devices:
- The fastest and easiest solution is to begin monitoring all devices immediately — especially unmanaged devices — for signs of a breach.
- Take an inventory of all your IoT devices and identify which ones belong to different network segments, so they can't be discovered or compromised using a DNS rebinding attack. Not all devices can be moved to a different segment, but the more you can move, the better.
- Perform a risk analysis of each of your IoT devices. Some devices are riskier than others. Some devices have easily attackable interfaces, such as HTTP servers, and some don't. Rather than do this risk assessment manually, look for an automated way to assess all devices at once.
- Make your IoT devices less vulnerable, for example, by disabling services that you don't need, such as UPnP, changing the password to each device's HTTPS server, and updating device software whenever possible. Conduct different software updates to manually download and apply to each device.
Of course, it is always advisable to make judicious decisions when purchasing (and connecting) IoT devices — lest you regret the decision in the near future after an opportune hacking. Don't hold your breath waiting for patches from the device manufacturer. Patching all these devices against DNS rebinding attacks is a colossal task, requiring patches from many vendors that can't even be reliable in responding to lesser threats. You're pretty much on your own here.
Opinions expressed by DZone contributors are their own.


text:
Chelsea's Antonio Conte bags LMA `Manager of the Year` award
| Updated: Aug 23, 2017 11:20 IST
London [U.K], May 23 (ANI): Chelsea boss Antonio Conte has been named manager of the year and Premier League manager of the year after guiding his side's to the title glory in his first year in charge. The 47-year-old, whose team finished seven points clear of second-placed Tottenham Hotspur, received the gong at the 25th League Managers' Association's annual awards evening. Having arrived at Stamford Bridge following the end of Euro 2016, Conte has made an instant impact with his managerial skills and that he will now aim to add another trophy in his account when Chelsea face Arsenal in the FA Cup final on Saturday. Chelsea had a brilliant run this season, having notched up a League record of 30 wins, including a winning streak of 13 matches The Stamford Bridge club, who celebrated their Premier League title with a 5-1 win over Sunderland in the last unassailable clash, finished the tournament on 93 points, which is the second highest total ever in Premier League history, goal.com reported. Meanwhile, Brighton manager Chris Hughton bagged the Championship award for leading the Seagulls back to the top flight for the first time in 34 years. Portsmouth' Paul Cook and Sheffield United's Chris Wilder clinched League Two and One respectively for 2016-17. Danny Cowley of Lincoln City received a Special Achievement award after the non-league side battled through to the quarter-finals of the FA Cup in a thrilling run which was eventually ended by Arsenal.(ANI)


text:
Maleficent Begins Production, First Photo of Angelina Jolie as Maleficent is Released
Disney has announced that Maleficent is scheduled to premiere on March 14, 2014 and began shooting last Wednesday June 13. Along with that statement they shared a photo of Angelina Jolie playing the starring character; Maleficent.
This is the untold story of Disney's most beloved villain, Maleficent, from the 1959 classic "Sleeping Beauty." The film reveals the events that hardened her heart and drove her to curse the baby, Aurora.
Directed by two-time Oscar®-winning production designer Robert Stromberg ("Avatar," "Alice in Wonderland"), in his directorial debut, and produced by Joe Roth, "Maleficent" is written by Linda Woolverton ("The Lion King," "Beauty and the Beast") and executive produced by Angelina Jolie, Don Hahn, Matt Smith and Palak Patel.
Co-starring in the film are Sharlto Copley ("District 9"), Elle Fanning ("Super 8"), Sam Riley ("On the Road"), Imelda Staunton ("Vera Drake"), Miranda Richardson ("The Hours"), Juno Temple ("Atonement") and Lesley Manville ("Secrets & Lies").


text:
Formal and informal vignettes with a story to tell.
Paintings of animal companions and wildlife in oil and watercolor
Figures, portraits and genre scenes
Landscape, sea and shore scenes
Commissioned portraits of homes, events and other special treasures.
Selected works are available as archival quality Giclee prints. Printed on the highest quality archival paper, gicl�e prints have the continuous tone characteristics, color saturation and visual detail of the original artwork.
Figures and Portraits, Genre Scenes, Landscapes and Still Life Arrangements Featuring Animals and People


text:
Monday, April 12, 2010
Airline Tickets
4 comments:
I use three websites regularly:ReplyDelete
Sometimes your best bet is to try the airline company's direct website. It is usually cheaper to fly on a Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday. Buy tickets as soon as possible. Prices will only go up. If you know how to travel light (really light) you could fly into the cheapest UK airport and then hop around with Ryanair. They have SUPER cheap flights but are well known for having extra fees for just about everything. I never expect to pay under 1000 when traveling in August....
This is BY FAR my most valuable piece of advice that I could ever give to a pond hopper. Are you reading carefully? This is not to be taken lightly....AVOID IBERIA AT ALL COSTS! I mean ALL costs!!
In bocca al lupo!
Thanks for the advice! I will check out those websites.
As for luggage, we won't have too much stuff, but because of Evan's bagpipe competition he will have his pipes and uniform and then there's the clothes for the week, etc.
Thanks for the advice on Iberia. I'll stay away from them. What are your thoughts about British Midland?
I don't know anything about British Midland. I've had good experiences with AirFrance...ReplyDelete
Thanks, Maria. It looks like we will probably fly Icelandair as it is one of the cheapest, most direct flights from here.ReplyDelete


text:
Used Buick: For Sale By Owner in Detroit-Warren-Flint, MI
Check out the following list of used Buick for sale by owners. Narrow your search by provide your zip code or by selecting specific models. We have filtered out any dealer listings from this web site. Let us know if you find any of them - we WILL remove them. Try read more...
Recently Sold Items: Price Research (Buick)
Sold at: $711
94,347 miles
460 days 1 hour ago
Sold at: $810
80,603 miles
460 days 4 hours ago
Sold at: $7,800
66,000 miles
460 days 7 hours ago
Sold at: $710
110,000 miles
460 days 11 hours ago
|A total of 31 items found. Items 1 - 10 are shown below:
|1 2 3 4 Next>
|List view Picture view
|Time Left
Vehicle Title:
(229, 100.0%)
1936 Buick Century 1936 Buick Century Rumble Seat Convertible Coupe Model 66C - Very Rare
New, lower starting bid and reserve price!! Up for auction is the beautiful, refurbished 1936 Buick Century Rumble Seat Convertible Coupe, Model 66C. which I'm selling for a friend. The new paint is Metallic Teal. The matching interior, including rumble seat, was professionally done, as was the new convertible top. This car was in pieces when it was delivered to his house. All the body panels, doors, hood, dual side mount spare tire covers and other parts arrived rust free and in primer. They looked new! The current owner, an expert machinist, fabricator and car enthusiast assembled everything himself. Along the way, he added chrome enhancements to add flair to the build, including the Packard Cormorant mascot. Amazingly, the original Buick grille was, and still is, in unbroken condition. The upper door slot for the side windows has been professionally closed up, so this is now a "fair-weather" car. The fit and finish is second to none. He removed the old torque tube drive system and rear ...
Price Research
16h 28m
Benton City, Washington
Vehicle Title:
(63, 100.0%)
1976 Buick Electra 225 All original, NO RESERVE, Needs restoration
Up for your bids is my 1976 Buick Electra 225 with 112,735 original miles. I have been the second owner since 1985 when I bought it with less than 37,000 miles on it. (Bill of sale is available.)In 2005, due to the rust it had developed, I parked it with the hopes of one day restoring it, but never got around to it. At that time, it was running fine and strong with no issues. I HAVE NOT STARTED OR DRIVEN IT SINCE, therefore it needs restoration.It is a numbers matching 455 cubic inch, 4 barrel, THM 400 Automatic. Power steering, power brakes, power windows, 60/40 power driver's seat, power locks, AM/FM stereo cassette player and original Buick chrome rally wheels. It was painted once, in 1990, in its original white color. The driver door's internal linkage seems to have come undone, so it currently does not open.All glass is in good shape with no cracks. I will be glad to arrange for a flatbed tow truck at the buyer's expense, again as it has not been started for about 15 years. I will ...
Price Research
1d 14h 31m
Rockville, Maryland
VIN: 434371z102904
Vehicle Title:
(4,616, 100.0%)
1971 Buick GS Stage 1 1971 Buick GS Stage 1 ~ American Muscle Car ~ Original 455 Engine ~ Holley 850
1971 Buick GS Stage One Up for sale is an amazing Restored Buick. It is in great condition and can be a daily driver and is sure to turn heads wherever you go! Under the hood of this GS sits a Numbers Matching original 455 V8 Engine with a Holley 850 Carburetor. This has the Buick Style 10 Bolt Rear End. This GS Stage One drives great and is equipped with Power Steering and Power Brakes. The interior of this Buick is in fantastic condition. This has bucket seats in the front and Bench Seating in the rear with Black interior throughout, Black Carpeting, B & M Floor Shifter, Aftermarket Auxiliary Gauges, Aftermarket Style Radio is installed, but the original stereo is included, and GS Floor Mats. The underside of this Buick is also in great condition! This 1971 Buick GS Stage One is one great car inside and out! Included with this car are Restoration Documents and Receipts. This has a new front end with parts all from JEGS. New parts include tie rods, control arm bushings, end links, front ...
Price Research
1d 14h 46m
Van Buren, Arkansas
Vehicle Title:
(0, 0.0%)
1983 Buick Riviera 1983 Buick Riviera turbo v6, t-type 4bbl
Buick Riviera turbo V6 Quadrajet 4-barrel carb. Will not start as of two weeks ago needs carb float replaced. True barn find. Owned for over a year. Was a daily driver and was taken on several long distance trips...one was 200+miles one way..with no issues.. not a show Queen but it's all there. Typical issues with a 37 year old vehicle, exhaust leak behind manifold, speedometer doesn't work headliner is toast. Body has a few dings and Alignment issues from whoever did the aftermarket paint job...they are all cosmetic... nothing structural...not rusted out..it has a solid body for the year and neglect it has seen. Needs someone who knows about the car and what it is to show some tlc..The year and v6 turbo make it very rare and collectable.. Buick and turbo enthusiasts know what the car is worth as is. Don't have the time to do what I was going to with it so I'll sell it to someone who does. Open to trade 4 bobber or decent ...reliable bike.. looks aren't important just has to be reliable.... ...
(1 bids)
Price Research
1d 15h 50m
Hutchinson, Kansas
Vehicle Title:
(1,772, 100.0%)
1987 Buick Grand National 4.1L Stroked Turbo Charged GN - Roll Cage / T-Tops / Air to Water Intercooler
87' Buick Grand National 4.1L Strocked EngineE85 TunedFuel Injector UpgradeCold Air IntakeExhaust SystemAxis InterfaceGM 3-Bar MAP SensorBoost & EGT GaugeBlue Faced - ScanmasterFocal Mids & HighsARC 5-Channel AmplifierJL Audio SubwooferKenwood DeckAlarm SystemRoll CageNew A/C CompressorNew Fuel Tank & PumpBride SeatsNew Rims & Cobra Tires The car is in amazing shape for its age. Well cared for. It does have a small fluid leak and the steering column bolts need to be tightened. These are both typical issues.
Price Research
1d 17h 40m
Las Vegas, Nevada
Vehicle Title:
(42, 100.0%)
1965 Buick Riviera 1965 Buick Riviera
1965 Buick Riviera . Air bagged project car. I no longer have a place to work on it so its time to let it go. This is a great foundation for a show car build or restoration project. Body is in pretty good shape, the only bad spot is in the front floor pan area as shown in the pics, will need some patch work and does include the front floor patch panels, trunk floor, doors and quarters all appear to be in good shape. No engine or trans, it is ready for your LS swap or to go back to an original Buick nailhead. I believe all the trim is present, i have the inner and outer windshield and backglass trim, quarter windows and mechanisms, seats and tracks, door panels, inner quarter trim panels, center console, etc. I tried to take pics of everything but ebay wont let me post more pics, if you dont see it ask! . Air ride system installed and plumbed, it has been tested and functioned properly. I believe the tank has a pin hole and should be replaced, otherwise the system is complete and works. ...
(29 bids)
Price Research
1d 21h 44m
Royal Oak, Michigan
Vehicle Title:
(11, 100.0%)
1994 Buick Roadmaster 1994 Buick Roadmaster
Buick Roadmaster . Condition is Used. This wagon runs great. I have put thousands of dollars and lots of time into it. I like everything to work and most of it does it does. The A/C/ heat works perfectly. All the electronics work except for the twilight sentinel which just turns on the headlights and not running lights and the level ride which I bypassed and have added Airlift air bags along with the air shocks. You have to pull the headlight switch one notch for the running/dash lights to work. Rear defrost, rear window releases, p.locks, windows, seats, cruise, heated mirrors, dimming rear view mirror all work. I have rebuilt the transmission(cooler line came off and ran of fluid), replaced the radiator, A/C compressor, battery, distributor, cap, rotor, wires, plugs, water pump, heater hoses, rear axles, axle bearings and power antenna. The wagon has the towing package which includes an oil cooler, external trans cooler, clutch fan and electric fan and 2.92 gears with limited slip. I ...
(21 bids)
Price Research
1d 21h 44m
New Britain, Connecticut
Vehicle Title:
(282, 100.0%)
1970 Buick GS 1970 Buick GS
1970 Buick GS 35085,000 ORIGINAL milesCalifornia carGSX Clone PS, PBInterior is fresh...no musty smell...non-smokers carYou can jump in it and drive it anyplaceTake it to a car show....Take it to a Cruise NightPaint is 25 years young and still in great condition Also includes a 1970 Buick GS 455 Motor and Tranny that has never been apart
(73 bids)
Price Research
2d 7h 58m
Ontario, New York
Vehicle Title:
(22, 100.0%)
1997 Buick Regal Grand Sport 1997 buick regal gs 3.8l supercharged
1997 Buick Regal GS Supercharged with 49k miles! A family friend (80 years old) bought this car with under 20k miles because she liked the color. It has been garaged and maintained. No accidents, no stories. Recent Michelin tires, full tune up with all GM parts, including supercharger oil. All new brakes (R1) all around. Synthetic oil change and A/C recharge (no leaks). Upgraded headlights and fog light bulbs. New STAINLESS STEEL exhaust with performance muffler. Car comes with a new GM valve cover (known to leak) but hasn't leaked yet. All original paperwork and original cargo net in trunk. Both sets of original keys and fobs included. Runs, drives perfectly, interior still smells new, body is clean and straight. Any minor flaw is shown in the pictures. I haven't sold many cars on eBay but my past feedback speaks to my honesty. Rare opportunity for someone looking for a low mileage, comfortable, fast, clean car that's had a good life!
(2 bids)
Price Research
2d 10h 50m
Westborough, Massachusetts
Vehicle Title:
(214, 100.0%)
2012 Buick Verano Convenience Group 2012 Buick Verano Convenience Group 4dr Sedan - Silver - 23600 Original Miles
Beautiful Silver 2012 Buick Verano Convenience Package. 23700 original miles, very recent synthetic oil change with Wix premium filter. I purchased this Verano in September of last year and now, being out of work need to sacrifice and sell the car. I do have a lien which will need to be paid off prior to turning the vehicle over to the new owner. Pricing is lower than other similar mileage Verano models. The buick is quiet, and goes down the road very well. No issues. Questions at firstname.lastname@example.com
Price Research
2d 14h 30m
Lakewood, Washington
|1 2 3 4 Next>
Buick for sale by owner in other areas:
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|By TomRenalds @ 12/27/2010 12:25:16 PM
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text:
The kidneys are bean shaped organs, two in number, the size of a human fist, situated equidistant in the abdominal cavity, around the lowest rib in the ribcage. The kidneys are made up of nephrons that are basically filtering units in the human body. The blood that enters these sieves is filtered by the nephrons in the kidneys, and the body utilizes the vitamins and minerals that are left behind for nurturing the body. The toxins that are collected during the filtering process are passed into the urinary bladder in the form of urine. The kidneys are at work constantly and they help in sustain life because of these toxin filtering activities. These two organs help in removal of wastes, drugs, from the body.
Nearly two quarts of urine that keeps collecting inside the urinary bladder is thrown out from the body daily, and about the same amount of fluid is recovered by the body also, to maintain balance. Re-absorption and excretion are both complex activities that take place when urine is produced. These steps help in maintain the chemical balance of the body. The kidneys are also responsible for secreting hormones that promote RBC production. Calcium metabolism, blood pressure and hormonal balance to a certain extent are the responsibility of the kidneys.
Chronic kidney disease sets in with kidney abnormalities like protein secreted in the urine, or if there has been a hampered urinary tract function for more than three months. Kidney conditions may be hereditary or they may set in because of high blood pressure and diabetes. High blood sugar or excessive blood pressure exerted on the blood vessels in the body can cause kidney conditions. Kidney cysts, kidney stones, and other kidney disorders need attention right away. Repeated urinary tract infections, can also be the reason for ruining kidney function.
Kidney stones can be caused by a number of reasons and it may also be when a lot of calcium is absorbed from the foods that are eaten. Urinary tract infections or obstructions in the urinary tract, also lead to kidney complications. Urinary infections lead to burning and irritation in the urinary tract when the person passes urine. This can also affect the working of the urinary bladder. Substance abuse like consumption of drugs, alcohol, smoking, strong medications, pain relieving medicines, toxins, can damage kidneys badly. For the kidneys to stay healthy it's a must to stay vigilant and take help from a trained physician. Get yourself tested for urine protein and blood creatinine right away.
Kidney diseases can be curbed and kept under control. You need to monitor sugar and blood pressure levels, and can't let the excess fluids and wastes collect inside the body. Repeated urinary tract infections can be kept under control with the help of baba ramdev medicine for kidney called Divya Ashmarihar Kwath. Bacterial breeding in the urinary tract area can be curbed by Baba Ramdev's Divya Chandraprabha Vati. Baba Ramdev's Divya Vrikkdoshar Vati keeps a control on repeated urinary tract infections and also nurtures the kidneys with essential nutrients. The immune system of the body naturally starts to perform better with the help of these remedies.
July 2018


text:
2017 Sabre 48 Salon Express
Yacht price :
VOLVO IPS 800's FEATURING A SOLID
In a sea of Sabre 48's, LOGAN rises to the top! She offers not only Volvo Power but an upgrade to the IPS 800's over the standard 700's. She is one of the very few 48's built with the 600 hp engines and the only one currently on the market or in inventory. The extra horsepower offers almost a 38 knot top and a solid 32 knot cruise. But if speed isn't your thing, draw them back to mid 20's cruise and the extra power delivers you a quieter, more efficient operation. It is a wonderful propulsion package that needs to be experienced to be appreciated.
Beyond speed, LOGAN also offers a fresh, clean, modern look with her white hull, light gray fabric interior and clean gray gel coat nonskid decks in lieu of teak. Yet, the owner's opted to include the varnished teak toe rail which maintains the timeless feel that Sabre has become famous for.
Look through the listing and you will find LOGAN also to be complete with all the right equipment including full crew quarters, Freedom Lift, Garmin electronics package and a long list of other factory and custom options.
Furthermore, these three time Sabre owners keeps her pampered with the best of care. Heated, indoor storage in the Winter and open checkbook year round maintenance. Her condition will NOT disappoint.
LOGAN is easy to see in Salem, Massachusetts, just a short drive from Boston's LOGAN Airport.
If you are in the market for a Sabre 48, LOGAN is worth your inspection!
Basic Information
- Manufacturer:
- Sabre
- Model:
- 48 Salon Express
- Year:
- 2017
- Category:
- Power
- Condition:
- Used
- Location:
- Portland, ME, US
- Vessel Name:
- Boat Type:
- Downeast
- Hull Material:
- Fiberglass
- Hull Type:
- Hull Color:
- Designer:
- Sabre Design Team
- Flag of Registry:
Dimensions & Weight
- Length:
- 48 ft - 14.63 meter
- 52 ft 3 in - 15.93 meter
- Beam:
- 15 ft 4 in - 4.67 meter
- Draft - max:
- 3 ft 9 in - 1.14 meter
- Bridge Clearance:
- 14 ft 2 in - 4.32 meter
- Dry Weight:
- 34700 lbs
- Make:
- Volvo
- Model:
- Engine(s):
- 2
- Hours:
- -
- Cruise Speed:
- -
- Range:
- -
- Joystick Control:
- No
- Engine Type:
- Inboard
- Drive Type:
- Fuel Type:
- Diesel
- Horsepower:
- 600 (Individual), 1200 (combined)
- Max Speed:
- -
Tank Capacities
- Fuel Tank:
- 500 gallons - 1 tank(s)
- Fresh Water Tank:
- 160 gallons - 1 tank(s)
- Holding Tank:
- 70 gallons - 1 tank(s)
- Total Cabins:
- 3
- Total Berths:
- 3
- Total Sleeps:
- 1
- Total Heads:
- 2
- Captains Cabin:
- No
- Crew Cabins:
- 1
- Crew Berths:
- 1
- Crew Sleeps:
- 1
- Crew Heads:
- 1
Joystick Control
Factory Options
- Anti-skid color - Smoke (fore & side decks, aft cockpit, and recessed area of swim platform)
- Volvo Package with D8 IPS 800 ((2) Volvo Garmin 8617 glass cockpit MFD displays, DPS, Volvo Active Corrosion Protection System, Autopilot including joystick driving, Joystick installed on the Stidd arm rest, Cruise Control with single lever software, Volvo Interceptor with automatic trim, Addtional 12DC alternator to charge ships back, Clear wake bypass exhaust system)
- Reverso oil change system
- Freedom Lift dinghy lift with black arms
- Single Seagull water purifier on galley cold water plumbed to separate spigot
- Single Seagull water purifier on icemaker (optional)
- Fresh water wash down forward
- (4) Additional dimmer switches in galley, master stateroom, forward cabin and cockpit
- Install separate inverter and charger in lieu of combo unit
- Beam central vac system with (2) outlets and a 32' expandable hose
- Install 120VAC outlet inside chart storage locker. Outlet location to be aft and outboard.
- Install 120VAC outlet outboard of washer/dryer cabinet in utility room
- Install 120VAC outlet on the fwd end of the master berth, same position as the aft outlet.
- Install 120VAC outlet on the fwd end of the upper cabinets in the guest cabin on the stbd side.
- Install 12V/USB charger at head of master berth on the fwd end. (Aft is standard.)
- Install 12V/USB charger at head of fwd berth on the stbd side. (Port is standard.)
- Install 12V/USB charger in utility room. Inboard of the washer/dryer near the shelf.
- Electric sunroof with sunscreen in lieu of standard (2) pilot hatches
- FRP molded mast, separate radar platform for sedan hardtop
- Accord Shades on all opening ports
- Install cherry doors on glass cabinet aft of galley sink. Install wood shelf with fiddle half way up in cabinet
- Add a door on the small cabinet forward of galley sink. Remove fiddle and shelf, leave open inside
- Ultraleather upholstery main salon - Tusk
- Icemaker in cabinet below helm seats
- Notch cover aft and outboard for opening and for wires to pass through, no thumbhole.
- Move double SS cup holder from Nav desk area and install outboard of mate seat (port) on window edge. Owner understands that this might interfer in lowering blinds
- Add single SS cup holder outboard of joy stick. Make sure there is enough clearance by the OceanAir blind
- Delete the std cherry grab rail at the helm
- Increase two std main salon armrests another 4" in height on both settees.
- Add an additional cherry drop in box on port side of helm pod face above standard helm drop in box. Additional box to be rectangular with inside opening 6H"x8W"x10"D. Install standard stereo head below this box
- Delete the cherry trim around the sliding port settee creating a slightly larger entry into the utility room/crew quarters.
- Witch Hazel Corian counter with radius and Corian Cameo White undermount sink in master head in lieu of cherry counter and vessel sink w/ vessel faucet. Add 3" Witch Hazel fiddle behind sink. Ala CC040
- Fwd head cabinet to be 1/2 fully open and the another 1/2 to have shelf with fiddle
- Install second cherry towel rack on inside of door, location 10" below top of
- 9" Latex Supreme mattress in fwd cabin.
- Crew quarters with head in lieu of standard utility room
- Install Slendide combo washer/dryer with half bureau enclosed with cherry cubby (no door over washer/dryer). Washer/Dryer sits down on FRP and inboard next to berth. Cherry top over washer/dryer extends inboard to become top of bureau. Mirror above washer/dryer and bureau. Outlets, etc to be relocated.
- Garmin (2) 8617 glass bridge displays
- Garmin GMR 424 x HD2 open array radar
- Garmin GSD 25 premium sonar module
- Garmin VHF 300 radio and VHF antenna
- Speco Hailer Horn
- RCL-75 Spotlight
- Volvo autopilot interfaced with Garmin 8617 displays
- Airmar B60 20 degree transducer
Standard Specifications
- Modified Deep "V" Planing Hull Design, with shallow pod drive tunnels.
- 14 degree deadrise at transom, 23 degree deadrise amidships.
- ISO NPG white gelcoat w/ vinylester back-up resin.
- Bottom, topsides and transom VIP resin infused biaxial E-glass with Corecell SAN foam core.
- Stringer system biaxial E-glass with foam core.
- Resin Infused E-glass swim platform with molded-in anti-skid surface.
- Hull side rubbing strakes.
- PVC rub rail with stainless steel cap.
- Painted (Urethane) double boot top.
- Gold recessed cove stripe.
DECK and HARDTOP
- ISO NPG Gelcoat
- VIP resin infused biaxial E-glass with balsa core.
- Molded-in anti-skid deck surfaces.
- Companionway door to port.
- Sliding windows in salon on cabin sides.
- Electric opening window in salon aft bulkhead.
- Hinged access door to side deck at helm.
- Flush, outward opening, transom door with latch.
- Anchor locker with slam latch.
- Large lazarette/engine room access hatch in cockpit sole with compression latches.
- Integrated Sure Shade system over cockpit.
- 1 1/4" Diameter type 316 stainless steel perimeter rail system.
- (8) 12" Stainless steel cleats (2 fwd, 4 mid ship, 2 in aft cockpit).
- (1) 10" Stainless steel cleat to starboard of windlass as anchor rode tie off.
- (4) Custom cast stainless steel mid-rail line chocks.
- (2) Custom cast stainless steel skene chocks forward.
- (2) Stainless steel bollard style mooring cleats aft.
- (2) Stainless 12" cleats on cockpit coaming on centerline.
- Custom Stainless steel bow pulpit with dual anchor roller for 44# CQR or Delta anchor and "lunch hook".
- Quick anchor windlass, electric rope-chain type.
- Flag staff and socket on taffrail.
- Burgee staff on bow pulpit.
- (6) Low Profile stainless steel hatches w/ screens.
- (6) Custom stainless steel opening port lights.
- Teak toe rails.
- Teak cabin side eye-brow.
- Custom cast stainless steel "SABRE" medallion.
- Cummins DTS single lever electronic controls.
- Cummins Smart Craft Display (Engine Data, Tank Levels, Vessel Data, Alarms).
- Triple windshield wipers with washers.
- Ritchie Compass.
- Switch controls for horn, running lights, anchor light, engine room blower and optional equipment.
- Stazo 400mm custom teak steering wheel with tilt helm and Sabre logo.
- (2) Stidd N Series helm seats with Ultraleather fabric, mounted on a box.
- Twin Volvo-Penta IPS 800 inboard propulsion systems w/ 24v
electric shift transmissions & NiBrAl P-series duo-props
- Tier III emission certified.
- Pleasure craft rated VP D8, 600mhp @ 2900rpm engines.
- Integrated fresh water heat exchanger cooling system.
- 24v-110Amp alternator each engine.
- Extra 12v-115Amp alternator.
- Volvo-Penta 900mm Interceptor trim system w/ auto trim.
- Dynamic Positioning System (DPS).
- Active Corrosion Protection system (ACP).
- Volvo-Penta Clear Wake Exhaust bypass system (EVC controlled). - Groco raw water intake strainers & safety sea valves.
- Engine room blower & vent ducts.
- Engine room floor with FRP anti-skid.
- Gloss white engine room.
- Gloss white painted engines.
- Mylar-faced foam noise barrier.
- (2) 260 USG diesel fuel tanks port and starboard.
- Dual Racor fuel filters with water in fuel probes.
- (2) 2" "Diesel" deck fill plates
- (2) AGM Group 31 dedicated engine start batteries.
- (3) AGM 4D deep cycle ship's service batteries.
- (1) AGM Group 24 generator start battery.
- Remote control battery switches with controls at helm.
- Manual emergency battery crossover switch.
- Illuminated main circuit breaker distribution.
- Digital battery monitor.
- Lighting:
- St. Maarten amber cabin reading lights; High Output LED lights in the overhead;
- LED strip lighting in appropriate locations;
- LED engine room lighting;
- Tri-Color lights over helm station - red, white, blue;
- Cockpit courtesy lights;
- Marine-grade, tinned wire throughout.
- 12VDC USB chargers at helm and in all cabins.
- ONAN 13.5 kw generator including:
- Onan E series display;
- Dedicated start battery;
- Water drop muffler;
- Cooling water intake strainer; S
- Sound shield;
- Transfer switch.
- 50A shore power service with Glendinning Cablemaster and 70 ft. cord;
- Isolation Transformer;
- Illuminated main circuit breaker distribution panel;
- Digital AC system monitor;
- 120V GFCI protected outlets in each cabin and engine room;
- 50 amp 3-bank battery charger;
- Reverse cycle heat/air conditioning in (3) zones;
- Spacious island berth athwartship layout with laminated trim.
- Hull side deadlight over headboard.
- Shoji style passageway and closet doors.
- Shoji style port light screen panels.
- Cherry hull ceilings.
- Drawers under berth and in bulkhead aft of berth.
- (2) hanging lockers fore and aft of bed.
- LED flat screen TV and DVD player.
- Teak and holly sole
- Sound deadening soft headliner panels.
- Pocket door to master head compartment.
- Private access from master stateroom.
- Custom tile in WC and shower sole.
- Glass vessel style sink.
- High gloss finish over solid cherry counter.
- Vanity cabinet below sink.
- Storage outboard.
- Mirror above vanity, cherry framed.
- Separate shower stall with clear bi-fold enclosure and glass tile accent wall within.
- Electric shower sump pump.
- Opening port to side deck.
- Deck hatch with blind/screen overhead.
- Stainless steel towel bars.
- Spacious island berth, with laminated trim.
- Cherry hull ceilings.
- Drawers under berth, A/C return grille beside.
- Storage lockers, drawers and shelves.
- Teak and holly sole.
- Sound deadening soft headliner panels.
- Pocket door to passageway.
- Private access to forward head and shower.
- Stainless steel under mount sink.
- Shower stall with seat and locker outboard.
- Hot and cold pressure water.
- Electric shower sump pump.
- Storage lockers.
- Solid surface vanity top with bull nose.
- Towel bars.
- Soap Dispenser.
- Cherry wood trimmed mirror over sink.
- Ventilation blower.
- Solid surface galley counter top.
- Stainless steel under mount sink with cover and pull-out faucet.
- Stainless steel under mount prep sink with cover.
- Soap Dispenser.
- Isotherm stainless steel stand-up refrigerator (top) and freezer
- (2) Burner electric cook top.
- Convection microwave with stainless steel face.
- Drawers and storage lockers below counter.
- Built-in waste basket. Recycle Bin below steps.
- (2) Stidd N Series helm chairs mounted on a box.
- "L" settee to starboard, 5" foam cushions with storage and Sabre tool drawer under.
- High Gloss finish table with hi-low pedestal and angled slide mechanism. Lowers to coffee table height.
- Entertainment unit to port including: flat screen LCD TV 32" on lift with DVD player.
- Sound deadening, soft headliner panels.
- Raised mates L-shaped settee to port of helm.
- Stainless steel door to cockpit.
- Electrically operated window aft of L-settee.
- Swing door at helm to starboard side deck.
- Deep chart table forward of L-settee. Fiddles at navigation station.
- Varnished cherry interior finish.
- Screens on all opening ports.
- Ocean Air screen/blinds on deck hatches.
- Ocean Air pleated blinds on side windows and side door.
- Drapes on aft curved windows.
- Optional fabric and drapery selections.
- Dovetailed, varnished maple drawer boxes.
- Water capacity 160 gallons
- Stainless steel, 20 gallon, water heater, operates on 110-VAC or engine heat.
- Temperature control valve on hot water supply.
- Hot and cold water pressure system 12V.
- Fresh water spigot in engine room.
- Optional cockpit shower, hot and cold.
- Optional fresh water wash down in anchor locker.
- Polyethylene holding tank with 70 gallon capacity.
- Jabsco Quiet Flush fresh water MSD in guest head.
- Tecma Eco MSD in master head.
- Diaphragm waste pump on holding tank.
- Single Kahlenberg chrome trumpet horn with compressor.
- Fire extinguishers, (5) at 2 1/2 lbs.
- Marelon sea valves on all thru-hull fittings below waterline.
- Bonding system to safeguard against galvanic corrosion.
- Automatic fire extinguishing discharge system in engine space with override.
- (3) Automatic 12V electric bilge pumps.
- (3) High water switches and alarm.
- Work space below salon with work bench, drawers and shelves.
- Optional crew quarters with head unit available in this space.
The Company offers the details of this vessel in good faith but cannot guarantee or warrant the accuracy of this information nor warrant the condition of the vessel. A buyer should instruct his agents, or his surveyors, to investigate such details as the buyer desires validated. This vessel is offered subject to prior sale, price change, or withdrawal without notice.
External Links
Manufacturer Website
Manufacturer Website
Presented by :
Our Locations :
Featured Yacht :
Glen Cove, NY, US Upon Request
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Glen Cove, NY, US Upon Request
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Greenport, NY, US $649,999
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Portsmouth, NH, US $399,000
Glen Cove, NY, US Upon Request


text:
Advisors who embrace change will find opportunityBy Donna Glasgow Serge Therrien | July 09 2018 07:00AM
Phil Marsillo
In early April, Phil Marsillo became president of IDC Worldsource Insurance Network (IDC WIN). Marsillo, who previously held the position of Senior Vice-President, Distribution with Canada Life, brings decades of industry experience to his new role of leading one of Canada's largest managing general agencies.
In an interview with The Insurance and Investment Journal, Marsillo said that providing the support that advisors need to grow their businesses is a key role for MGAs.
While some advisors have the staff and experience needed to develop their own strong businesses, the majority of advisors in Canada are looking for an MGA's support to understand what needs to be done to ensure their practice is compliant and to advise them on products, follow up, prospecting and technology. "I think there is a lot of value there and our role, our job, is to convince advisors why we bring value to the table," says Marsillo.
Searching for help
He points to the rapid pace of regulatory change as a particular area where advisors need assistance. "More and more regulations are in place and advisors are searching for help," he says, adding that they are not alone. "MGAs to some point are searching for help, carriers are searching for help. It's new to everybody in the industry and it's changing really fast."
What is his message for advisors in dealing with this change? "Embrace it. It's not going to go away."
He adds that he has been in this industry for 35 years and every year the new people entering the business are told that there's never been a better time to join. "What does that actually mean? We've gone through a lot of change in the last 35 years, and anytime there has been a change there have been individuals who have seen opportunities and embraced it and have done better things for themselves and for their clients. Others are afraid of change and then they go and they hibernate. That doesn't help anybody."
Many of the new compliance demands are centred on 'fair treatment of consumers,' he observes. "Just the words in themselves say 'use common sense'. If you're doing what's right for the customer, you will be treated well as well. Don't be scared of compliance. For the majority of people, there's nothing to worry about. All the regulators are asking is document it. That's all. There aren't a lot of bad apples or issues in this industry," says Marsillo.
He adds that he believes the future of the industry is bright and that the products it offers to consumers are excellent. Life insurance, he points out, provides a way "to generate capital, protect capital and distribute capital – there's no better product out there."
Questioned on the potential for fintech disruption, Marsillo underlines that insurance is still a product "that is not bought, it is sold. Not too many people wake up in the morning and say 'I want to buy insurance.' So what's going to be important is how we can get digital to help advisors grow their business. Is the digital channel going to replace the advice channel? My answer would be no."
One major challenge he sees going forward is the lack of promotion about the value of the industry. "Do we ever speak about the number of people we employ, the amount of death claims we pay on an annual basis, the amount of disability claims we pay on an annual basis, or critical illness insurance benefits we pay?" Marsillo says the best way to promote the insurance industry to the public would be to speak about these things.
"We don't sell insurance for what the premium's going to be, we sell insurance for when you need it most. We need to promote that."