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Friday, September 16, 2011
Elections: Can the opposition still unite?
As most readers will know by now, there are twelve candidates for the presidential elections in the Congo. This is many fewer than in 2006, when 33 Congolese vied for the position, but for many in the opposition, this is still far too many.
As I have argued here before, the presidential vote will, first and foremost, be a referendum on Kabila's popularity. If the president, for example, knows that he can garner 35% of the popular vote, then he needs to focus on making sure the remaining 65% is divided among enough candidates that no single one can beat him. That was the importance of the constitutional revision earlier this year, that changed the presidential poll from a two-round, majority-wins election to a one-round, plurality-wins affair.
This means that the main challenge for the opposition will be to unite behind a single candidate in order to increase their chances of beating Kabila. This endeavor, however, has butted up against the considerable egos of those involved, as well as deep mistrust within the opposition.
The opposition has now split into two major wings - the Fatima wing, led by Tshisekedi. He has been able to muster the support of 80 political parties other than his own UDPS, although none of these parties, to my knowledge, has much of an electoral base. Talks appear to have more or less come to an end between Tshisekedi and the other major opposition candidates. "The negotiations are finished," the veteran opposition leader said when he submitted his candidacy. His spokesperson added: "I am sure that our friends will join us."
Those friends, however, have formed their own wing, an informal coalition dubbed Sultani, and led by Léon Kengo wa Dondo and Vital Kamerhe. In private, members of those parties are not optimistic about uniting behind Tshisekedi, who they claim has been leading with his chin by boldly refusing any negotiations. And even within this coalition, there are troubles - Kengo has been telling his colleagues that Kamerhe may rally behind him in exchange for the prime minister's position. Kamerhe says this is not true, and indeed it is not clear why Kengo, who has been a sly political player but has little mass following, should take the lead.
Other, smaller players, may yet further divide the opposition. Adam Bombole, a rich businessman and former head of the MLC's Kinshasa section, has thrown his name in the hat. According to MLC sources, Bombole spoke with Jean-Pierre Bemba and received his provisional approval to run, but then didn't take the care to consult with other MLC leaders (not in prison) before announcing his candidacy. The result: He has been expelled from the party. Nonetheless, Bombole has relatively deep pockets and is popular in Kinshasa, where he could get votes.
The only other two of the twelve candidates who could get more than one or two percent of the vote are Mbusa Nyamwisi and Oscar Kashala. Mbusa, who decided to run as an independent instead of for his RCD-K-ML party, still has something of a base in North Kivu among his Nande community, although many have jumped ship there, as well. Kashala came in 5th in the 2006 elections, with 3,4% of the total vote. However, the US-based doctor benefited then from Tshisekedi's boycott, allowing him to claim many votes in the Luba community and in Kinshasa.
With this proliferation of candidates, it is no surprise that allegations have emerged that some are fake opposition members, running in order to divide their ranks and allow Kabila to win. Kamerhe and Kengo have been accused of this, and now Bombole and Mbusa have earned this dubious distinction, as well. I even heard a Kengo supporter suggesting that Tshisekedi's advisors have been bought off and have steered him in the wrong direction.
Of course, it is still theoretically possible that (a) the opposition will unite, at least a little; and (b) that even divided, one of them could beat Kabila single-handedly. The president, however, has formidable resources: deep pockets, state media and the security services. Already, opposition members are complaining that they barely had the funds to pay for the registration of all of their legislative candidates, and there are reports that some of the main opposition parties have only been able to field candidates in a fraction of the 169 electoral districts.
The next weeks will be interesting. Two things to watch: Will there be any further consolidation of the presidential field? My guess is that this would happen before the official campaigning begins in October, when candidates start spending much more money. Secondly, who are the different parties' legislative candidates? This last question will be important for any negotiations within the opposition, as it will have a bearing on who is projected to control parliament and thus be able to nominate the prime minister.
15 comments:
- Rich said...
Jaso -
It has now been confirmed there are 11 ccandidates and not 12. No female candidate to the presidental this year and Ismael Kitenge is the one missing from CENI 11 candidates list.
- September 16, 2011 at 4:16 AM
Thanks Jason for this post,very interesting to read as usual, though I believe that you, like many of our well-meaning Congo friends (especially those that only become interested in our country these last ten years), fail to grasp or overlook this fundamental reality: the Kabila vote itself may also be split - not only the anti-Kabila one as many seem to think. For example, as things stand now with the current geopolitical electoral tendencies, Kamerhe performing strongly would be bad news for Kabila and good news for Tshisekedi, and vice versa.
Although you recognized in your option (b) that one oppositionist candidate can single-handedly beat the incumbent president, I know from your previous postings that you actually are more inclined to believe that unless the opposition agrees on a joint ticket, then they will fail dismally - you're entitled to your opinion.
But as a Congolese on the ground, I can tell you that this notion that if the opposition is divided they will soon, looks bizzare for many of my fellow countrymen.
Yes, Kabila will likely win this election if the latter passes off like an ordinary election. Not, if the majority of the Congolese people all of sudden develop the sense that this is an historic election, or a "defining moment" like Obama likes to put it.
In other words, no matter how many presidential aspirants are in the race, if amongst the opposition candidates, one emerges and manages to instill enough passion and energy in this dispirited people and make them dream big about themselves and their country; then Kabila can go and already start packing...
- September 16, 2011 at 6:49 AM
Who would YOU vote for Jason?
- September 16, 2011 at 7:01 AM
- Jason Stearns said...
@Anonymous - I do still think that an opposition candidate could win, even if there are 11 of them. I do think that Tshisekedi and Kamerhe together would stand a much greater chance than either of them alone, however.
Could opposition candidates eat into Kabila's "base?" Sure. But the point I am making is that, like in 2006 when Congolese "discovered" Bemba and threw their weight behind him at the last moment because he was carrying the flag of the opposition, I think today most Congolese back the opposition (outside of the core UDPS supporters) primarily because of their dislike for Kabila. I don't think, for example, that Bombole is going to grab voters away from Kabila, or that Mbusa will do so in the East.
I am not making any predictions - I still think anyone can win. I just think it is less likely for the opposition to win if they are divided.
- September 16, 2011 at 8:04 AM
- Jason Stearns said...
@Brad - I am not Congolese, and for purposes of impartiality, I am not going to endorse any candidate. Unfortunately, this is not like the New York Times or Economist giving an endorsement - taking sides here would be seen by many to seriously compromise my objectivity, even if that is not the case.
- September 16, 2011 at 8:05 AM
How is it that Kabila is an independent? What happened to the PPRD? Will there provincial elections in November? It is a shame Kashala has been out of the country since the last election. I agree that a split opposition is two edged sword. Thx for this informative post. Mungwa Pierre
- September 16, 2011 at 10:08 AM
- Monique B. said...
Great post.
- September 16, 2011 at 11:22 AM
Great post as per usual, Mssr Stearns.
I must say though that having travelled a good deal of the Congo during the month of July until just last week, there are more unknowns here than simply the particular configuration of the opposition, where each candidate has strength (either alone or in combination), and the depth of anti-Kabila sentiment. This is the Congo, after-all, and anything is possible.
What I think "Anonymous" seems to be saying and what, perhaps, you are ignoring is the degree by which average Congolese come to understand what is at stake in this election, their access to objective information about all of the candidates, and what they will do with that information on Election Day.
Similar to the use of facebook with Obama in 08' (who's cofounder is a friend and was O's director of online organizing), there is something rather new that allows a broad swath of the populace to connect to each other and that provides information that did not exist in 2006. Namely, Radio Okapi. From my conversations with its editors, the UN-controlled station will soon began broadcasting to its now daily 27 million listeners a steady drum beat of election news, interviews with candidates, forums for listeners to call in and discuss them and the issues, and debates with the candidates themselves. It goes without saying that some of these candidates have more dexterity in the spoken word than others, are more conversant in all of the Congo's languages than others, and it is thus quite possible the more skilled among them will use this platform to their advantage.
Should this happen, we may see something akin to the Nixon-Kennedy debate, where the previously more "experienced" Nixon came across as stilted and boring next to the dynamic and youthful Kennedy. In many ways, TV back in the 60's and Okapi's efforts today served many of same functions and I would not put it past one of these guys to maximize that function to their advantage.
To conclude, I came away with two key things in my long visit from the Congolese- particular rural ones: a) the listen to Okapi daily b) they are less likely to take gifts for votes this time around. And to be clear, I spoke to 1,000 people.
This is rather striking for it portends we are headed to a more volatile election than we all might think- no matter what these "Happy 11" seek to do.
Anonymous #2
- September 16, 2011 at 4:08 PM
- Mwana Kin said...
Good day Jason,
I, from time to time, I read your blog and found your writing insightful.
However, correct me if i' am wrong, I believe also that from time to time that your view mirror of the RDC political elites, NGO and Embassies people.
As native congolese, leaving outside RDC for the last 2 decades, you may have a better reading of the RDC barometer than I do, but I feel you are over stating your point regarding the advantage of Kabila.
If I was you, I will narrow the field to relevant candidates that I think will reach more than 5% of the vote. My list will have the following people.
1.Etienne Tshisekedi,
2. Joseph Kabila,
3. Vital Kamehre,
4. Leon Lobitch Kengo,
5. Oscar Kashala,
6. Nzanga Mobutu
Among the aforementioned, only Tshisekedi, Kabila and Kamehre, I believe will be able to reach double digit.
My bet is that Kamehre will not garner no more than 12-15% of the electorate vote.
To follow my assumption, one has to understand the dynamic of election in RDC.
There is the dynamic of big cities and there is the dynamic of the country side voting.
Heterogeneous' cities like Kinshasa, L'shi, and Kisangani vote is politics and personality driven sprinkled with regional and ethnic consideration.
Whereas, the countryside vote is, mostly along tribal and regional lines first and secondly personality driven among a more homogeneous group.
Therefore, to reach more than 15% of the vote Kamehre will have to win big in Sud Kivu, and Nord Kivu.
He needs about 90% in his native Sud Kivu( 2,022, 960 electorates), and about 70% in Nord Kivu(3,003, 246.00 registered electorates), which I do believe will be a toll order.
I expect Tshisekedi and Kabila to capture more than 45% in each province.
Despite what the so called experts are saying, it will be for me a two way race between Tshisekedi and Kabila.
Tshisekedi because of his popularity, aura and goodwill garnered fighting Mobutu regime, and joseph Kabila because of the control of the purse and the alliance with the what the Congolese call the "classe politique alimentaire" will be the top two vote getter.
- September 17, 2011 at 1:49 PM
- Mwana Kin said...
Here is my rundown and prediction.
Leaning Tshisekedi
1. Province Kinshasa(3,287,745 electorates) : chalks it to Tshisekedi, I think will get about 55 to 70% of the vote, despite a huge leaning Palu electorate in the District of Tshangu, Est of Kinshasa. That electorate will be key to Kabila strategy of weathering the storm in a city where he is deeply impopular. Kengo, Kamhere and Nzanga will be hard pressed to get more than 5% point each.
2. Province of Kasai Occidental (2, 661,245.00 electorates) Kashala could play spoiler to Tshisekedi vote. Kabila will do well in Evariste Boshab circonscriptions of Mweka, Luiza, and around Ilebo, most likely propelling him to reach 500, 000.00 electorate votes 25 to 30%.
3. Province of Kasai Oriental(2,643, 905 electorale votes). Bastion of the Tshisekedi, He will win handily. Kabila hope will be to perform well in Katako Kombe, Lodja, Kole and Lomela( Tetela land). But, I don't believe Kabila will be able to reach 25%.
4. Province of Equateur(3, 960, 643) Tshisekedi will win the popular vote, despite old antagonism toward Tshisekedi who was Mobutu "bete noire". Nzanga and Kengo will do very well maybe 25 percent each. My guess is Tshisekedi will have at the end of the day the popular vote.
Leaning Kabila
1. Province of Katanga(4, 627, 302 electorates ) Kabila will more than 50% of the vote. However, Tshisekedi, will perform very well in all majors cities like L'shi, Kolwezi, Likasi, Kipushi etc.. The key for him is not to fall below 30% to narrow the margin.
2. Province Of Maniema(874,909) Kabila will win around 60% of the vote.
3. Province Orientale (3,886, 524) Kabila needs to win big here in order to stay competitive. Tshisekedi needs to pay more attention and imperatively pay a visit as promised to keep will chance alive.
Tossup :
1. Province of Bas Congo (1,502,939 electorates) both Kabila and Tshisekedi will do well because of pariochal interest of Congo native. Moreover, because of its proximity to Kinshasa, Tshisekedi may be favored.
Province Of Bandundu(3,553,322 electorate,)
Kabila alliance with Palu, will make him the favorite in the Kwango Sous Region, notably in Kahemba(106,155 electorates), Feshi(165, 226 electorates).
How well Thsisekedi will perform in Kenge(2222,623), Popokakaba(91,339) and Kasongo Lunda(262,445), all yaka lands, will be key to him winning easily. All will depends to what promise he will give them.
In the Kwilu sous region, Kabila will do very well in the Palu bastions of Gungu(303, 506) and Idiofa(482, 375).
However, I will watch how Kabila will perform in Olivier Kamitatu's mother commune of Bulungu(413,455.00) and his father bastion of Masi Manimba(369, 313). In addition to Bagata(165,539). He nneds to win big there to get Bandundu popular vote.
The other sous regions of Mai Ndombe,(488,040 electorates), Plateaux (219,449 electorates) and Sous region of Bandundu ( villes of Bandundu and Kikwit, both (270,494) will remaim competitive areas for both candidates.
The sous region of Mai Ndombe and Plateaux tend to mimick the voting trend of the province of Equateur.
I expect all three sous region to be very competitive.
The keys to the election are:
- Power of purse , control of the media and how Kabila people will be tampering with election result.
- Is UDPS will be able to have enough resource to make Tshisekedi available in Province Orientale, The Kivus and Bandundu.
- Will the CENI accepts to open the election role in order flush out duplicate role, under age voters and by the same token guarantee a peaceful election?
- Finally the fact the parliamentary is not contested with the presidential will make it harder for Kabila hired guns to mobilize vote for him?
Like they say in lingala: ekozala opesi mbwa, mbwa aboyi. Meaning even dogs will refuse to eat that food, or poke their nose in that business.
- September 17, 2011 at 1:50 PM
I believe another unknown here is a particularly important player of Kabila's "base" that is not running.
Moise Katumbi, the ridiculous popular governor of Katanga and owner of a revered Congolese institution- the soccer club TP Mazembe that is to date the only African soccer team to make it to a FIFA World Cup finale. Without the East and Katanga, Kabila has no chance whatsoever. And it is clear that is popularity in the East has collapsed which makes Moise that much more important to a victory.
Well, at Kabila's widely panned speech at his farm the other day, Moise was conspicuously absent. More problematically, there was the prison break last week (nearly 1,000 escaped, including a violent warlord)and just yesterday a major circuit breaker at the power substation that provides Katanga's most important city- Lumumbashi- blew up throwing much of this relatively peaceful and prosperous city into darkness.
Radio Okapi has the scoop and Moise, after repeated efforts to fix the substation went unanswered, is pissed.
I really fail to see how Kabila could smooth this over with Moise. As we all know, Katanga is mission critical to any politician in the Congo. Most of Kabila's inner clique hail from the region.
If there is a king maker in the Congo its mostly him at this point.
Moise tweets quite a bit of you want to follow him: http://twitter.com/#!/Moisekatumbi
- September 17, 2011 at 1:57 PM
- Rich said...
Hi Jason -
Thanks once again for such an interesting thread. I was captivated and well informed with the posting submitted by Mwana Kin. I did like the way you dodged a question on what candidate you are going to vote for!
I wanted to point to the fact that most of what is being said here about the elections is mere speculation. The biggest uncertainty about the outcome of the 2011 elections is to do with the fact that no one objectively measure the size of Tshisekedi electorate.
I know 'Gu'estimations can be made about J Kabila's electorate based on his 2006 results and it is obvious that Kamerhe's departure from PPRD did not occasion significant subsequent departures amongst J Kabila's loyalists at least at the leadership level.
As far as tshisekedi is concerned, I can vividly remember my UNIKIN years when I was a fervent UDPS member within both the University and the Home 30 (Soweto) section. Looking back to that period, I can recall how tshisekedi's popularity reached its peak around early 1990s (Lititi mboka UNILU, numerous students demonstrations against mobtu, Bindo & Nguma promotion, pillages, Conference nationale Souveraine, operations villes mortes etc...) before falling to almost nothing with AFDL arrival, and the rise of L D Kabila's popularity. Like me, many students of that era and indeed Congolese of my generation and beyond started to question political positions taken by tshisekedi with L D Kabila's arrival and, to me, it was obvious that I gradually got disappointed with thsisekedi's numerous faux-pas (no need to list them here). In other words, it looks to me that tshisekedi's political life has been about consolidating mobutu's dictatorship and extending that regime's life expectancy.
I have good personal reasons not to vote for Kabila (and I'm sure Jason you can guess one of them) but when I look at what the generation of my parents (people born between the two World Wars) has bequeathed to us. I may be wrong but I have no doubt that none of them (except martyrs and heroes) should ever be allowed to run that country again.
I also say this because, 51 years gone since the independence of 30 June 1960, history and the world will forever remember that the D R C is to have only 3 (three) democratic elections (out of a possible 10). 2 (two) out of the 3 (three) elections are to be held under the current leadership or in the last 5 years.
I know things are far from perfect but I am convinced that Congolese politics from my parents' generation should either completely retire from politics with immediate effect or work in the shadow as advisers to a much younger and open minded generation.
This is just an opinion and I wellcome to critics.
- September 18, 2011 at 12:32 PM
I wanted to come back et correct my previous sentence. I meant;
Finally the fact the parliamentary is contested with the presidential will make it easier for Kabila hired guns to mobilize vote for him?
If you want to have a measure of Tshisekedi electorate, look at the December 2005 constitutional referendum voter turnout.
Do you know what was the turnout or participation rate in both Kasai, Kinshasa and Bas Congo when Tshisekedi issued his call for boycott?.
Kasai oriental was 33% of eligible voters. If you exclude the songye and Tetela territories (were turnout was in the 84%), the effective turnout in Luba land was less than 5%.
Kinshasa was 46.8% and Bas Congo was less than 50%.etc..
Let's take a look now at Kabila first round and second round results at the same areas.
Kinshasa 14% and 29% while the participation rate or voter turnout declined from 72% to 57%. In Bandundu, Kabila lost despite the report of voice of the PALU
Kabila lost in all western part and central part of the country.
In order to win need to keep his number close to 2006 first round number. I have doubt that he will do so.
Remember what Kamhere said, He does not see where Kabila will get 40%.
I do agree with Kamhere on this one.
I don't see Kabila winning the Kivus. He may win here and there In Nord Kivu, like in Masisi and Nyirangongo, But I doubt about his strength in Goma Ville or in Beni, Butembo, and/or Walikale.
Moreover I don't see him getting 70% again in province Orientale because Tshisekedi is not Bemba, who was hated in Province Orientale because of the rebellion.
So, When Tshisekedi said that he will win big, it may seem like braggadocio, but underlying Tshisekedi swagger, is the analysis of the number and understanding of the Congo geo politique.
Mwana kin
- September 19, 2011 at 11:37 PM
- Rich said...
Mwana Kin (Dikando...)-
I am struggling to understand how you managed to attribute the 38% or so abstention rate for the 2005 Constitutional referendum to Tshisekedi's call for a boycott!
Can you please explain the method used to come this such a conclusion? It is true that tshisekedi's call to boycott the 2005 constitutional referendum may have had some effects in certain provinces; but I am not convinced that this particular abstention rate is a reliable indicator of anyone's electorate.
I did not quite get your point regarding when arguing about Kabila's first and second round...
As for Bandundu and Palu, it is true that all of Gizenga's votes did not go automatically to J kabila however, he was able to go from 2.7% in the first round to 39.45% in the second round. With people like Kamitatu, Godefroid Mayobo, Muzito and indeed Gizenga still in bed with J. Kabila and the fact that there is not a strong candidate coming from that province this time, I will not surprised if J Kabila manages the same score as in 2006 and perhaps more...
Your analysis on province Orientale can be extended to the fact that it is getting increasingly clear that Bemba will not ask his supporters to report their votes on tshisekedi. From what I am hearing it looks like the gap between the two individuals continues to increase and that Kamerhe is moving in quick to make an alliance with MLC. If this materilaises then tshisekedi wil struggle to secure some of the votes in the West hence giving J Kabila a chance to top up from any loss in any of his traditional electorates.
I genuinely think it is tight but given that the opposition is still devided, any such division is only helping J Kabila to compensate from any loss made in his traditional electorate, let alone winn new ones in hostile electorats.
- September 20, 2011 at 10:56 AM
Kengo..kengo...kengo...yes, I know and you can all laugh if you want . But here is the truth;there is no one in this list of candidates who know this country better than "le premier de premier". He has deep pocket, a network(national and international)and the catholic church. I don't say its a done deal but as some congolese political analyst said ; whoever he's going to be able to mobilize his people(electorate)-the ground game-then this person should be the favorite.He knows something which all of us don't ...thats why i'm not counting him out. He's on the race because he thinks he can pull it off and don't forget this is Kongo(drc) we are talking about...where everything is possible.
- September 26, 2011 at 1:47 PM


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Intensive Cultural Resource Survey of the Chevron 1-32F Well Location and Access, Uinta County, Wyoming
Author(s): Maria Garcia
Year: 1980
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Intensive Cultural Resource Survey of the Chevron 1-32F Well Location and Access, Uinta County, Wyoming. Maria Garcia. 1980 ( tDAR id: 78309)
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min long: -111.047; min lat: 40.995 ; max long: -110.048; max lat: 41.58 ;
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While voting continues to crown Baltimore's best college basketball player, here's a chance to revisit the inaugural Sweet 16.
As part of our college basketball preview this week, I condensed all 16 profiles into 16 vignettes for Friday's print edition of The Baltimore Sun.
If you've already read each of the 16 articles in the series, there's no need to check out the rest of this blog post. But if you want a (relatively) quick summary of Baltimore's top DI players, this blog is for you. Check out each vignette after the jump.16. Dylon Cormier, Loyola
Jimmy Patsos was ecstatic to keep Cormier home for college. The Greyhounds coach was not only getting a first-team Baltimore Sun All-Metro player in Cormier, but also a player that would later prove to be his top local recruiter.
After Cormier's pledge, Loyola landed commitments from St. Frances point guard R.J. Williams, Xavier transfer and City grad Jordan Latham, Milford Mill small forward Tevin Hanner and St. Frances center Josh Forney. Williams is now a freshman at Loyola and Latham is a sophomore, while Hanner and Forney will arrive next fall. Patsos credits Cormier, a 2009 Cardinal Gibbons grad, with starting the Baltimore-to-Loyola movement.
"He gets active in the recruiting process," Patsos said. "He tells them what he really likes about Loyola and playing in the league. He loves the league. He's just a great guy."
Cormier's freshman-year success certainly aided his recruiting pitch. The 6-foot-2, 175-pound combo guard started 27 of 30 games for the Greyhounds as a freshman, averaging 8.1 points and three rebounds. Cormier expects his role to expand this season.
"This is the best team I've seen in years at Loyola," Cormier said. "We'll be tough to play. We're [one of] the biggest, strongest teams in the league this year. I'm real excited about this season. We've got a lot more to show."
15. Jamar Briscoe, Charlotte
Briscoe, a 2008 Cardinal Gibbons grad, sat out the 2009-10 season after transferring from North Carolina Central, where he was the second-leading freshman scorer in the country. His sophomore-year production came up a bit short of what he accomplished against a lower level of competition as a freshman, but Briscoe easily proved himself to be one of the Atlantic 10's top newcomers.
"I'd say he had a really good year," said Charlotte coach Alan Major. "Just with our limited numbers, it really puts almost an unfair kind of pressure to ask a guy to handle the ball, take care of the ball and take great shots, defend at a high level and play 35-plus minutes a game. … But … for what we asked him to do, I thought he had a very good season."
A 5-foot-10, 165-pound point guard, Briscoe started 28 games, averaging 12.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.5 steals. He guided the 49ers (10-20) to three huge upsets: a 49-48 win over then-No. 7 Tennessee, a double-overtime triumph at Georgia Tech, and a 66-62 home win over Xavier. He's hoping for more noteworthy victories as a junior.
"I want to win, man," Briscoe said. "I'm trying to win. Like I said when I came here, I want to win. I know I've got the chance to play in the A-10, but I want to play in the Atlantic 10 championship. Everybody's got a chance — every team in the conference. But I want to win it, man. I really do."
14. Brendan Bald, Vermont
Expectations among Vermont fans were likely tempered for Bald last season after the former Severna Park star averaged just 2.9 points and 9.9 minutes as a freshman. But John Becker, a Catamounts assistant who was elevated to head coach after the 2010-11 season, wasn't dismayed by Bald's debut. He expected the 2009 Anne Arundel County Player of the Year to make major strides as a sophomore, and Bald delivered.
"He did really well offensively and defensively in the league," Becker said. "He can really guard and take the opposing team's best wing player out of the game."
Bald finished his sophomore year as Vermont's second-leading scorer at 11.3 points per game and its top 3-point shooter at 41 percent. He also served as a lockdown defender on the wing. For his efforts, Bald was named the America East Defensive Player of the Year, in addition to earning third-team all-conference honors. The 6-foot-5, 200-pound wing is primed for an even bigger role this season.
"I'm definitely going to be looked on as an aggressive scorer, and I'm still going to have to lock up the other team's best player," Bald said. "I'm going to have a larger role this year. My team's going to depend on me a bunch. We've got a lot of good guys coming back, a lot of guys that are going to step up. … I think we're going to have a good year and surprise some people in the postseason."
13. Eric Atkins, Notre Dame
After four years as Mount St. Joseph's starting point guard, primarily coming off the bench for the Irish was a strange feeling for Atkins. But the two-time Baltimore Sun first-team All-Metro selection had no problem whatsoever playing a supporting role for Notre Dame, which went 27-7 and reached the second round of the NCAA tournament last season.
"I think I had a really good experience as a freshman last year," Atkins said. "Coach Brey told me before the season that pretty much everything was going to be done just the way it happened. He told me how my playing time was going to be. I knew how it was going to play out."
Atkins may have had a modest season statistically for the Fighting Irish last year (averages of 5.8 points, 3.2 assists and 1.8 rebounds), but the 6-foot-2, 183-pound sophomore proved to Notre Dame coach Mike Brey and other Big East observers that his best was yet to come.
"I'm just looking for him to make a big jump so that by the end of the season, Eric Atkins will be referred to as one of the better guards in the Big East," Brey said. "I feel strongly about his career here. It makes me sleep well at night, knowing he's the guy running the team for three more years."
12. Devin Brown, Holy Cross
When Brown wasn't working on his game this summer, the City grad was interning at GE and plotting his post-graduate plans for entering the business world. That summer balancing act of books and basketball was typical for Brown. Over the past three years at Holy Cross, the 6-foot-2, 190-pound senior has emerged as a seemingly model student-athlete at the academically rigorous institution.
"One of the [business] professors pulled me aside and said, 'He's absolutely going to be a star,'" said Holy Cross coach Milan Brown. "[This is] what kids who go to Holy Cross do. They're going to play and be about academically trying to set themselves up for the future and where they're going to work. He goes just as hard going for 30 points as he does in [in the classroom]. He's done both. He's talked a lot about being good in both avenues."
Devin Brown's academic success mirrors his basketball prowess. As a junior, Brown averaged a team-best 15.6 points, reaching double figures 21 times. Brown converted on 81.1 percent of his free throws and 36.6 percent of his 3-point attempts. The former Knights standout, who was a second-team All-Patriot League player last season, would trade all his individual accolades for a winning senior season with the Crusaders (8-21).
"I wish I would've been able to do more to help the team — taking [better] shots, grabbing more rebounds, finding the open man, getting a few more steals, motivating my teammates better when I'm on the bench, pushing the team more in practice," Brown said. "A lot of things I could have done."
11. Kevin Thompson, Morgan State
Commemorative basketballs line the walls of Todd Bozeman's office, with each one signifying an important moment in his Morgan State tenure.
There are basketballs to remember MEAC championships, NCAA tournament appearances, wins over high-major opponents like Maryland and Arkansas, and several other notable accomplishments. For each of those highlights, Kevin Thompson was there.
"He's been part of every last one of them," Bozeman said of Thompson, who averaged 13.1 points, 9.1 rebounds for the Bears as a junior.
If Bozeman has his way, Thompson will be part of a few more tribute-worthy moments this season. The 6-foot-9, 240-pound center has played in two NCAA tournaments, but the Bears missed out on the postseason last year. Bozeman hopes Thompson, a Walbrook grad, is saving his best effort with the Bears for last.
"[I want him to] lead, really work and develop a worker's type of attitude," Bozeman said. "If he does that, he really could lead the nation in rebounding. And he could be a force to be reckoned with … and end his career like how he started, which would be in the postseason."
10. Sean Mosley, Maryland
Mosley is the first person to admit that his junior season was a disappointment. The Terps missed the postseason, and the second-leading scorer in Maryland high school history averaged just 8.1 points and shot 26.9 percent from 3-point range. First-year Maryland coach Mark Turgeon, however, is a firm believer in Mosley's ability, and is counting on the former St. Frances star to be a leader and a major producer for the Terps this season.
"He's a much better shooter than I thought looking at his numbers," Turgeon said. "His form is good shooting the ball. Hopefully it'll carry over in games. He's a much better shooter. He's tough kid, a strong kid who guards multiple positions because of his strength. He's just a great leader for us. You can tell he's serious about doing what's best for the team and leaving his mark. He's been great."
Mosley may not have turned into the college player some analysts predicted four years ago. But the 6-foot-4, 210-pound wing has no regrets about his time in College Park, and he's eager to end his career on a high note.
"It's a blessing to be here at the University of Maryland," Mosley said. "I'm playing at the highest Division I level. The three years have been great. We've been to the [NCAA] tournament two out of the three years I've been here, got [an ACC championship] ring when I was here. This is my last year. I just want to go out being remembered and having a great season, making the tournament and playing my best. Last year wasn't the best season for me or the [team]. But I think this [coaching] change is definitely for the better. We're looking forward."
9. Antonio Barton, Memphis
The 6-foot-2, 170-pound point guard read the comments and heard the whispers about him riding older brother Will Barton's coattails to a high-major basketball scholarship.
"It was just like rumors on the internet," Antonio Barton said. "I would read it. [They said] that I would be a good practice player, or I was just a throw-in for my brother. Those type of things."
It took all of one game at Memphis for Barton to show how foolish those anonymous commenters were in their dismissal of him. In Barton's first career regular-season game, the 2009 Lake Clifton graduate scored a game-high 17 points, in addition to contributing five steals, four assists and three rebounds in leading the Tigers to a 104-40 win over Centenary.
That game was the first of many in which Barton proved that he not only belonged at a big-time basketball school, but that he was one of the most promising freshman point guards in the game. On the season, Barton was Memphis' fifth-leading scorer at 8.2 points per game. He started 12 games for the Tigers, who finished 25-10, including a 10-6 mark in Conference USA.
"This kid can flat-out play," said Tigers coach Josh Pastner. "He helped us win a lot of basketball games. He's a hard-nosed, blue-collar, does-his-job, low-maintenance, old-school basketball player. That's who he is. And we were fortunate to have him. I love the kid. I mean, he was our leading scorer in the NCAA tournament game [vs. Arizona]. That guy's a player and we were fortunate to have him. I knew that he was going to be a good player when he signed."
8. Brandon Young, DePaul
Jerry Wainwright recruited Young to Chicago but was fired before he ever got a chance to coach the Randallstown native. Despite the coaching change, Young never wavered on his DePaul commitment, electing to become former Clemson coach Oliver Purnell's point guard of the future — and present. While the Blue Demons labored through a 7-24 season in Purnell's first year on the job, Young emerged as a notable bright spot, cementing his status as one of the Big East's rising young stars.
"I was a freshman playing in the Big East, the toughest conference in the country," Young said. "I struggled at first, got frustrated. Then I started getting the hang of it. … It was all coming along. But it's good now."
Young started all 31 games for the Blue Demons and logged 30.4 minutes per game. Young, who played two seasons at Randallstown High and two at Friendship Collegiate in Washington, finished the year averaging 12.6 points — second on the Blue Demons behind fellow Baltimore freshman Cleveland Melvin — and a team-best 3.7 assists. Purnell is counting on the Big East All-Rookie team member to produce even more as a sophomore.
"You have a sense that this guy has got a chance to be really good, and more importantly, a guy who can become a cornerstone," Purnell said. "You can't pay for that kind of experience. As we watched him during the year, he made some mistakes, yeah, but there are also some bright spots and you realize this guy has a chance to be a special player."
7. Devon Saddler, Delaware
After graduating from Aberdeen in 2009, Saddler headed to Winchendon (Mass.) Prep for a post-grad year. Suddenly, the Delaware commitment was fielding interest from DePaul, North Carolina State, Oregon, Rutgers, Washington and other high-major schools. But Saddler never wavered in his pledge to the Blue Hens, who were treated to an outstanding freshman season from the 6-foot-2, 205-pound combo guard. Saddler averaged 13.3 points and 4.3 rebounds and was named Colonial Athletic Association Rookie of the Year.
"Winning Rookie of the Year in such a tough league, such a highly regarded league … is quite an accomplishment," said Delaware coach Monte' Ross. "He brought a different type of intensity to our team from Day 1. I think other guys on our team really, really appreciated that. We were better from Day 1 [because of] the type of competitor he was and what he was bringing to the program."
Rookie success hasn't gone to Saddler's head. If anything, individual accolades have made Saddler hungrier for his Blue Hens to be a winning program. He's ready to do everything he can to help Delaware — which went 14-17 overall and 8-10 in conference play last season — rise in the CAA standings.
"I'm pleased so far, but I'm not settling," Saddler said. "I think this year is going to be my breakout year. [I hope] to have a great year this year. I'm working out, my jump shot is falling now [and] I'm getting more comfortable shooting off the dribble. This year might be my year. I might go off."
6. Roscoe Smith, Connecticut
For Smith, freshman year with the Huskies was an ideal introduction to high-major college basketball. While Smith was a star at Walbrook for three years and one of Oak Hill (Va.) Academy's top players as a senior, recasting himself as a role player to help UConn win the national championship was a seamless transition for the 6-foot-8, 205-pound forward.
"If [playing a supporting role bothered him], he didn't show it," said UConn assistant coach Kevin Ollie. "He came in and played his role. He came in and got minutes on the defensive end. We needed a person of his versatility to stick the 1 through the 4. He just had great ability to play multiple defensive positions and bring energy. That's what he did when he came in."
The stat sheet reflects Smith's willingness to do whatever he was asked. The former Walbrook standout appeared in 41 games for UConn, starting 33. He averaged 6.3 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in 25.4 minutes. Ask Smith about his individual performance, and he'll talk at length about the team's success.
"Each game felt like a championship game — the first exhibition game to the last game against Butler," Smith said. "We just continued to play hard and get better as a team. In the NCAAs, we just kept playing and having fun."
UConn will be without Kemba Walker's services this year, meaning Smith and other Huskies will be counted on for increased production. Ollie thinks Smith is up to the task.
"[He's improved] just off the bounce, pump fakes, getting into the lane during games a little bit more," Ollie said. "Just his basketball IQ has grown."
5. C.J. Fair, Syracuse
The 6-foot-8 small forward was a surefire high-major prospect after leading City to the Class 2A North Region semifinals in 2008. But over the next two years, Fair tore his ACL and missed his entire junior season with the Knights, and then left town to play at Brewster Academy in New Hampshire. With his two-year absence from local high school competition, Fair felt like he may have faded from the Baltimore basketball scene's collective consciousness.
That feeling was erased during the 2010-11 season, when Fair flashed his potential for the Orange. The former Knights star averaged 6.4 points and 3.8 rebounds in just 18.6 minutes per game. Fair hopes a summer spent working out in Baltimore will ensure that he sees more minutes as a sophomore.
"I just want [Syracuse fans] to know that I really worked on my game a lot this summer, I improved a lot," Fair said. "It will show on the court. I think they can expect to see a better, improved C.J. Fair. If I get better, and I know my teammates got better, it'll be a good, promising year."
Jim Boeheim has been impressed so far with what he's seen out of Fair this fall. It's clear to the Syracuse coach that the sophomore small forward dedicated himself over the summer to getting stronger and becoming a better shooter. There's no question, Boeheim said, that Fair has made "a big improvement" since the end of the 2010-11 season.
"He'll have more of an impact," this season, Boeheim said. "He'll get more time. We'll look to him a little bit more when he's in there. It's probably one of the most well-balanced teams we've had in a long time. I think he's one of the key guys for us. But he's on a tremendous path. I think he can be a dominant player before he leaves here."
4. Kim English, Missouri
Throughout his three years in Columbia, English has taken pride in his ability to lead. The 6-foot-6, 200-pound senior is one of the most quotable Tigers, a social-media superstar, a campus leader, and one of the Big 12's top guards. But the 2010-11 season, fell short of English's expectations. The junior averaged 10 points and a career-high 25.8 minutes. But the Tigers, who started the season 14-1, fell to Cincinnati in a second-round NCAA tournament matchup.
"Last year was real freelancing, loosey-goosey," English said. "But that style worked my first two years when we didn't have as much talent. Last season, we had seven or eight guys who could get buckets on their own. That much freedom had us bumping heads a lot and not really focusing on defense."
Senior year could be much different for English. Frank Haith left Miami to replace Mike Anderson — who left for Arkansas — as Missouri's coach, and English likes what he's seen so far out of the new system. Leaving the program in an even better place than how it was when he arrived is of the utmost importance to the former Randallstown star.
"It could be the best of my four years here — that's saying a lot," English said. "We were an Elite Eight team that won 31 games my freshman year. Next season we got to the second round. Last season was a crazy-talented team. We started the season Top 15, got to No. 8 in the country, and then we fell apart. We had so much talent, but just didn't jell together. Our chemistry now is better. We could easily be better than those three teams. But we have to do it every single day in practice. We really are preparing the right way. I'm just excited to get started."
3. Andrew Fitzgerald, Oklahoma
As a freshman, Fitzgerald appeared in 26 games for the Sooners, averaging 4.8 points and two rebounds. Then last year came Fitzgerald's breakthrough campaign. The Baltimore County resident averaged 12.6 points and five rebounds, earning All-Big 12 honorable mention honors for his efforts.
"It was a great adjustment," said Fitzgerald, who played his junior season at Owings Mills before finishing his high school career at Brewster (N.H.) Academy. "I had to drop some weight so I could be on the court. … I had to adjust really fast. I adjusted my freshman year, started 11 games that season, then came out sophomore year and started every game. I kept improving from there."
First-year Oklahoma coach Lon Kruger said he "didn't know much about" Fitzgerald before he got the Sooners job, but his early impressions of the junior forward were extremely positive. What about Fitzgerald's game stood out to Kruger the most?
"He can really score," Kruger said. "He's got a knack for hitting shots. He's got good touch on mid-range jumpers, good feel for the game. He really worked hard and improved his conditioning. He's done a nice job of that through summer and is doing a good job of that this fall."
Fitzgerald, a 6-foot-8, 240-pound power forward, has simple goals for his junior season.
"Just win. Just win and make the tournament this year," Fitzgerald said. "I'm not really paying attention to all the media right now because all I know is that this team, right now, is ready to play and win this year."
2. Cleveland Melvin, DePaul
The former Lake Clifton big man is coming off a freshman season in which he averaged 17.4 points and 6.3 rebounds in conference play, earning Big East Rookie of the Year honors for his efforts.
Blue Demons coach Oliver Purnell — who counts Melvin as his first commitment at DePaul — called it "a mild surprise" that the 2009 Baltimore Sun first-team All-Metro player was so successful as a freshman.
"He's always been kind of a secondary guy on good teams — and maybe not even secondary. That might be generous," Purnell said. "Maybe the third guy on really good teams. … [But] in Cleveland's mind, he always thinks he's going to be a really good player and get better. I think he's been in situations where he's always gotten better."
The real breakout for Melvin came right after the New Year, when he averaged 26.5 points and 7.5 rebounds in games at Cincinnati and Georgetown. DePaul struggled through a 7-24 season (including a 1-17 mark in conference play), but Melvin was a consistently reliable scorer and rebounder for the Blue Demons.
"He doesn't like to lose. He's not satisfied," Purnell said. "[Leadership from him is] far more powerful [than it is from the coaching staff]. … I think he can be very good. He was an All-Big East type of player, [and] you know what that means. If you're an All-Big East player, the sky's the limit."
1. Will Barton, Memphis
Anything less than dominance was completely foreign to Barton. During the summer of 2008, Barton starred for Nike Baltimore Elite on the AAU circuit, earning Top 10 national rankings from Scout.com, ESPN.com, MaxPreps.com and PrepStars.com. Months later, Barton's storybook senior year at Lake Clifton ended with the Lakers capping a 32-0 season with the Class 3A state championship. Then came his prep year at Brewster (N.H.) Academy in which he averaged 20.8 points and was named the 2009-10 New England Preparatory School Athletic Conference Class A Player of the Year.
That track record of success — along with a steady stream of media hype — probably would have made any player overconfident to an extent. Barton was no different. But while the former five-star prospect couldn't possibly live up to the unreasonable predictions that some assigned to him, Barton went out and did the best he could.
"[Freshman year] was a little harder than I thought it would be," Barton said. "It didn't go exactly as I planned it to be. I still had a great freshman year, but not great with the expectations I had for myself. In my mind, as a freshman, [some people thought] I actually had a great year. To me, I played OK. An OK season. Good learning experience."
Barton's "OK season" amounted to averages of 12.3 points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. He played in all 35 games, starting 25, and was the second-leading freshman scorer in Conference USA. He was was selected to the All-Conference USA third team and the All-Freshman team.
"Let's keep in mind that he had a good year," said Memphis coach Josh Pastner. "He was our leading scorer, our second-leading rebounder, leading assist man. He had a real good freshman year. That's why he's a preseason Wooden Award [candidate]."
Barton is getting accustomed to being a nationally recognized player. CBSSports.com ranked him the No. 32 player in the country, and he's still considered a potential NBA prospect. But talk of jumping to the league as soon as possible has ceased. Barton's priorities, it seems, have been altered a bit.
"Towards the end of [last] season, that's when I started to say, 'For us to win basketball games and perform at a high level, I have to put all my thoughts into my team and my coaches.' If I'm not winning and producing at the college level, I'll never have to worry about the NBA. … I'm just focusing on what I have to do — dominating college basketball."


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Why Do So Many People Seek After Signs And Wonders
"Why do so many people seek after signs and wonders?"Answer: Our God is a God of wonders (Psalm 136:3-4). As the Creator and Sustainer of all that is, God has the power to suspend natural laws in order to fulfill His purposes. Miracles were a part of the ministries of Moses, Elijah and Elisha, and of course Jesus and the apostles, and their miracles primarily served the purpose of confirming their message as being from God (Hebrews 2:3-4). Today, many people still seek to experience the miraculous, and some will go to great lengths to have that experience. There may be many reasons for such a desire, and Scripture gives us at least five: 1. Some people seek after signs and wonders because they want confirmation of the truth of God. There is nothing inherently wrong with this desire. In fact, God willingly gave signs to Moses (Exodus 4:1-9) and Gideon (Judges 6:11-22) to confirm His word. Miracles can aid a person's coming to faith, as in John 2:23, "Many people saw the miraculous signs he was doing and believed in his name." However, there comes a time when enough miracles have been performed—the truth has been proved—and it is time to exercise faith. When Moses hesitated to obey after a series of miracles at the burning bush, "the LORD's anger burned" (Exodus 4:14). Also, it is nobler in God's sight to believe without needing a miracle. Jesus visited the Samaritans, and "because of his words many more became believers" (John 4:41, emphasis added). Just a few verses later, Jesus rebukes the Galileans: "Unless you people see miraculous signs and wonders . . . you will never believe" (John 4:48). Unlike the Samaritans, the people of Galilee required signs and wonders.2. Some people seek after signs and wonders because they do not believe the signs and wonders which have already been performed. The Pharisees of Matthew 12 were just such a lot. Jesus had been performing miracles for quite some time when a group of scribes and Pharisees came to Him with an insolent demand to see another sign. In response, Jesus condemned them as "wicked and adulterous" (Matthew 12:38-39).They were "wicked" in that they refused to believe the signs and wonders Christ had already performed. "In spite of his wonders, they did not believe" (Psalm 78:32). Their hearts were hardened towards the truth, even after numerous public miracles. Nothing would make them believe; their hearts were as pharaoh's, hardened after witnessing so many of Moses' miracles in Egypt (Exodus 9:34-35). They were "adulterous" in the spiritual sense, having left the true worship of God to follow a man-made set of rules and traditions. Not satisfied with the miracles Jesus was doing, they demanded something even greater. As commentator Matthew Barnes puts it, "They looked for signs of their own devising." So entrenched was their rejection of Christ that, when later presented with the "sign of the prophet Jonah" (Christ's resurrection, Matthew 12:39-40), they still would not believe.3. Some people seek after signs and wonders because they seek an occasion to excuse their unbelief. There were people in Jesus' day who "tested" Him by seeking a sign (Matthew 16:1Luke 11:16). Since they specified that the sign be "from heaven," they most likely wanted something spectacular, similar to Elijah's calling down fire from the sky (1 Kings 18:38) or Isaiah's causing the sun to reverse course (Isaiah 38:8). Probably, their "test" was designed to be something "too big" for Jesus to accomplish—they simply hoped He would attempt it and fail in the attempt. 4. Some people seek after signs and wonders because they are curious thrill-seekers. Like the crowds in John 6:2 and King Herod in Luke 23:8, they want to see something sensational, but they have no real desire to know the truth of Christ.5. Some people seek after signs and wonders because they hope to get something for themselves. After Jesus fed the multitudes, a large crowd followed Him to the other side of Galilee. Jesus saw their true motivation, however, and rebuked it: "I tell you the truth, you are looking for me, not because you saw miraculous signs but because you ate the loaves and had your fill" (John 6:26). The crowd's desire was not to know Christ or even to see more miracles; it was simply to fill their stomachs again.Better than seeking after a new miracle is taking God at His Word. Simple faith is more pleasing to the Lord than a reliance on a dazzling sensory experience. "Jesus told him, 'Because you have seen me, you have believed; blessed are those who have not seen and yet have believed'" (John 20:29).


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By Garry Doherty, The Open Group
Entitled "Just enough EA", a set of case studies has been published by the Joint Information Systems Committee (JISC), made up of senior managers, academics and technology experts working in UK further and higher education. These experts determine JISC's programme of work to reflect the present and future needs of the education and research communities.
Case studies from Staffordshire University, Roehampton University, Liverpool John Moores University and Leeds Metropolitan University delve briefly into their experiences with many aspects TOGAF® and ArchiMate®, and look at the "Do's and Don'ts" of engaging with Enterprise Architecture… It's certainly worth a look. Read the case studies here.
Garry Doherty is an experienced product marketer and product manager with a background in the IT and telecommunications industries. Garry is the TOGAF® Product Manager and theArchiMate® Forum Director at The Open Group. Garry is based in the U.K.


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Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Beast of the Month - December 2007
Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan Dictator
"I yam an anti-Christ... "
John Lydon (aka Johnny Rotten) of The Sex Pistols, "Anarchy in the UK"
Democracy is a funny thing when it comes to American foreign policy: it's really important. It's really important, that is, except when it's not.
Take, for example, the hissy fit the Bush Team and korporate media has had over Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. He has long been described as a would-be-dictator by these forces, and a recent public referendum had been widely labeled as an attempted constitutional coup. Never mind that he's won 3 elections as El Presidente and one referendum to stay in power, which means he's won four more elections legitimately than Bush ever has. Never mind that a failed plutocratic coup that tried to oust Chavez in 2002 with the Bush Administration's backing was the greatest threat to democracy in Venezuela since he took office. Never mind the public referendum voted on this month was constitutional and was decided by direct democracy: it involved changes in labor and property laws and executive power, including the big contention, removal of term limits for the office of President. Never mind the "controversial" attempted removal of term limits would hardly put it out of the norm of democracies in the Western world. And never mind that after voters legitimately concerned at the increase in executive power proposed (it also would have allowed Chavez to redraw political maps and appoint some local leaders, given him power over the central bank and allowed him to suspend civil liberties during states of emergency) voted against it 51 to 49 percent, Chavez announced: "I understand and accept that the proposal I made was quite profound and intense." So much for Mr. Dictator. But then again, most honest observers would admit the controversy isn't about democracy but of a Latin American leader with a vision for the future in conflict with the neoliberal agenda - and the petrodollars to fund it.
Compare this to the coverage of Mikheil Saakashvili in the nation of Georgia. When he took over in January 2004 after the Rose Revolution (which preceded Ukraine's Orange Revolution) he was widely admired in his country, winning over 96 percent of the vote. He was even more widely admired in the Western media establishment, being an admitted pro-Western politician. Like in the Ukraine, however, it appears he may have bet on the wrong side, and he has fallen from favor. Demonstrations against the government on charges of corruption, assassination and authoritarianism were met with riot police armed with batons, tear gas, rubber bullets and water cannons, as Misha declared a state of emergency. (Boy, that will get rid of those charges of authoritarianism!) Of course, there is more to this story that a Cliff Notes version can do justice (Saakashvili claims, with good justification, that the protests are being financed and promoted by the Kremlin) but it is odd that the disturbing attacks on democratic rights occurring in Georgia right now are not receiving the same outrage in the korporate media as the Chavez referendum. Odd, that is, until one considers Georgia's geographic importance in regards to the Caspian Sea oil reserve.
Or look at Burma. While officially the US government has never been in favor of the dictatorship that has ruled since 1962, opposition has been mild at best. Even after political protests involving Buddhist monks and Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, the regime hardly has risen on the pundit outrage-o-meter back in the USA. Perhaps that is because the dictatorship has long been friendly to American korporations, most notably Chevron.
Hmm, that's odd: all these examples have oil involved with them, and the side the US is on is coincidentally the side that the oil money is on. In fact, it appears that "democracy" has no importance in deciding which side the US government is on. Iraq under Saddam and Iran under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: bad. Saudi Arabia: good. Russia under Vlad Putin: bad. Georgia and the Ukraine: good. Venezuela under Hugo Chavez: bad. Burma under General Than Shwe: good.
Perhaps the most naked example of political cynicism in the past month, however, is the case of Pakistan, which is led by General Pervez Musharraf, The Konformist Beast of the Month. This is because there is no question that Pakistan is a dictatorship, and there is no question that the US government supports it despite its lack of democracy.
Pakistan fell into dictatorship in October 1999, which is over eight years ago and back when Britney Spears was still jailbait. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was ousted by the military coup after he tried to remove Musharraf as Army chief. Instead, Sharif and members of his cabinet were arrested, forcing Sharif in exile to Saudi Arabia. Despite this, Pakistan remains a noted ally to Team America and the Bush Administration.
Of course, even before the 2000 election, Bush was on record as being supportive of Musharraf. Soon after the coup in 1999, Bush was asked to name the new leader of Pakistan and three other world leaders: he could only muster up "Lee" for Taiwan (his full name is Lee Teng-hui.) Despite not scoring well on the quiz if the game was Jeopardy, he had some revealing comments about the leader of Pakistan, declaring, "The new Pakistani general, he's just been elected – not elected, this guy took over office. It appears this guy is going to bring stability to the country and I think that's good news for the subcontinent." So there you have it: Bush in 1999 declared a military coup in Pakistan was good news.
As far as Bush and his minions are concerned, Musharraf is still good news, especially after 9/11. After all, the US needs a friendly neighbor bordering Afghanistan if it wants Operation Enduring Freedom to be a success (even if, as a success, Enduring Freedom has been marginal at best.) So in the name of Freedom, the USA has been in bed with a dictatorship. This continues even after last month, when Musharraf suspended the Constitution and declared martial law through the country, shutting down all private television stations and jailing dissidents. Among those jailed were members of the Supreme Court, including chief justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, who were about to rule that a sham "election" handing Musharraf the presidency was invalid, which apparently led to the state of emergency declaration. Later a kangaroo Supreme Court appointed by Musharraf dismissed all challenges to the election.
The punch line is, as an ally, Pakistan is certifiably two-faced. While officially they support the "War On Terror", they have been a not-so-secret hiding place for Al Qaeda and the Taliban ever since. It is also widely believed that Osama bin Laden, if still actually alive, is hiding in Pakistan (though considering the supposed videos of "bin Laden" speeches in recent years appear to be unconvincing forgeries, his status among the living is rather dubious.) Apparently, a subtle agreement exists between Musharraf and the Al Qaeda-Taliban members: if we give you sanctuary, you agree not to unleash terrorism against Pakistan. Which is understandable, after all: sometimes diplomacy requires one to do business with those you'd prefer not to. It's a shame the Bush Team can't owe up to this obvious truth, and declare that foreign policy is decided by Mammon instead of morality. But that would open up a can of worms, as it would give official evidence that nearly four thousand American soldiers and billions of dollars have been wasted in Iraq over lies.
In any case, we salute Pervez Musharraf as Beast of the Month. Congratulations, and keep up the great work, Pervez!!!
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Lil Wayne's Baby Mama -- I'm Getting a New Reality Show ... Again!
Lil Wayne's Baby Mama I'm Getting a NEW Reality Show ... Again
Getting knocked up by Lil Wayne PAYS ... just ask Wayne's baby mama Toya Carter Wright who's in the works to score her THIRD reality show to date!!!!
Sources tells us ... Toya's filming a new pilot with her rapper husband Mickey Wright (a.k.a Memphitz) ... called "Mickey and Toya: The Wright Way" ... which will follow the newlyweds as they launch a new biz -- and try to stay married.
It's not Toya's first go at reality TV ... she previously starred in "Tiny and Toya" (on BET) and "Toya: A Family Affair" (also on BET).
We're told the new show's being shopped to BET, MTV, FUSE and OXYGEN.
Best guess where it will land ...


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Continued response to Nick S.'s question about the Mountain Bluebird in a previous post...
I had a brief opportunity to swing by the Boise Library yesterday to learn more about how the Mountain Bluebird came to be the state bird of Idaho. The story is actually very fascinating and there was a bit of drama that I didn't expect. Thanks to the helpful assistance of a gal named Ronnie at the Boise Library, I was able to find an article from the Idaho Daily Statesman, dated August 22nd, 1930. (Not to mention dozens of articles referencing Al Larson and Elma Goodman, but not that far back.) Below I paraphrase or copy word for word portions of that article:
In 1928, nothing had yet happened toward the selection of a state bird. The Bald Eagle was suggested, but public sentiment was that they didn't want to take away from the National emblem, and thus the suggestion was eliminated from the start.
A questionnaire was sent to all the women's clubs across the state of Idaho to find out which bird was the most beloved. Many varieties of songbirds, the dove (presumably the Mourning Dove), game birds like the Sage Hen, were recommended, but the most popular was the blue bird (which species of blue bird was not yet specified). Meanwhile, the school children across the state were given the opportunity to vote and they too favored the blue bird.
Mrs. Everett Barton (probably Loraine Selby-Barton) of Emmett, Idaho, Chairman of Conservation for the Idaho Federation of Women's Clubs, had read that the Western Tanager was discovered by Lewis and Clark in 1806 in Idaho. She become obsessed with the idea that this should be Idaho's state bird. Its historical significance, great beauty, and sweet song, she felt made the Western Tanager truly Idaho's. A period of intense propaganda followed. (Read Lewis & Clark's journal entry here of their discovery of the Western Tanager at Camp Chopunnish, Idaho on June 6th, 1906)
At the Federation meeting in Weiser, school votes for the state bird read "meadow lark, blue bird, and robin". Because those birds had already been chosen by other states, Mrs. Barton, as Chairman of Conservation presented the Western Tanager. At this meeting a resolution was made to allow the school children a chance to vote to adopt the Western Tanager.
Nothing happened that winter or that spring and it was determined by Governor Baldridge and the State Superintendent of Schools that the summer would be used to let Idaho's citizenry learn more about the Western Tanager and to see if people would recognize it. Mrs. Barton requested photos of the Western Tanager that she could send to the schools throughout the state to convince the children of her choice. But the National Audubon Society, the National Geographic Society, and the American Nature Association all replied that they had no photos for such a purpose (this was during the Great Depression after all). The American Nature Association wrote back with a note of encouragement to select the Mountain Bluebird species as it had not yet been chosen by any other state and that "it is friendly, nests in bird houses, and is your best choice."
The County Superintendents of Schools announced that they stood behind the children's vote. The Governor hadn't recognized a Western Tanager all summer, so he favored the more common Mountain Bluebird as it was found in all the regions of Idaho (at least above 3500 feet). The Idaho Federation of Women's Clubs voiced that they had always been in support of the blue bird before Chairman Barton got off on her "tanager tangent". Chairman Barton resigned and as a swan song gave a final report of her futile effort to make the Western Tanager the Idaho State Bird.
So, on February 28th, 1931 the Mountain Bluebird became the official state bird of Idaho, along with the state flower, the Syringa blossom. While Mrs. Barton's historical reverence provided a solid argument in favor of the Western Tanager, a bird that thrills me every time I see it...I love them both...I personally am happy that the Mountain Bluebird overcame the challenge and was chosen by the school kids.
As Paul Harvey used to say, "And now you know the rest of the story."


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On October 8, 2010, Centenary University honored the donors and benefactors of The Campaign for Centenary University for their part in bringing The Campaign to a successful conclusion with the "A New Star is Rising" celebration at Centenary's David and Carol Lackland Center. The Lackland Center, the capstone of The Campaign, made this building a new focal point of the University.
Read the New York Time's coverage of the new Lackland Center.
It is a 68,000-square-foot building that provides a home for the Centenary Stage Company; WNTI, the streaming, internet radio station; and CCTV Channel 23, the Comcast-licensed television station.
It also houses a 485-seat theater named the Sitnik Theater; the Edith Bolte Kutz '42 Theater, which is a black box theater; a 400-seat dining hall; a 55-seat café; a dance studio; as well as classrooms, offices, meeting spaces and lounges.
The David and Carol Lackland Center was made possible by a lead gift from Centenary alumna Carol Burgess Lackland, a member of the Class of 1954 and a Centenary University President's Circle Member, and David A. Lackland, a University Trustee.
The Lackland Center is a cultural and educational destination with a variety of theatre and musical performances, lectures and other cultural and educational events. It is a regional resource to business and community groups who can use its contemporary conference center to hold meetings and events.


text:
Iran Leader: Any Attacks Bring 'Same Level' Reply
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Tehran will retaliate against any attack by Israeli or American forces "on the same level," Iran's top leader said Tuesday in a defiant address just moments after U.S. President Barack Obama appealed directly to the Iranian people with a message of solidarity.
The contrasting approaches highlighted the broad range of political posturing and tactics as the standoff deepens over Tehran's nuclear program.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, speaking on state TV to mark the Iranian new year, repeated his claims that the country does not seek atomic weapons, but said all of Iran's conventional firepower was ready to respond to any attack.
"We do not have atomic weapons and we will not build one. But against an attack by enemies — to defend ourselves either against the U.S. or Zionist regime — we will attack them on the same level that they attack us," he said, using the term Iranian authorities often use for Israel.
Despite the hard-edged tone for most of the speech, there were hints of overtures toward America before a possible resumption of nuclear talks between Iran and world powers. He urged the U.S. to have a "respectful attitude" toward Iran — suggesting it could bring dividends.
Earlier this month, Khamenei gave a rare nod of approval to Washington after Obama said he favored diplomacy to resolve the nuclear dispute.
In a video message for the Iranian new year, known as Nowruz, Obama tried to reach out to the Iranian people, saying there was "no reason for the United States and Iran to be divided from one another." But he denounced Iranian authorities for setting up an "electronic curtain" that keeps Iranians from making their voices heard with American and the West.
"Increasingly, the Iranian people are denied the basic freedom to access the information that they want," Obama said after the U.S. Treasury Department opened the way for American companies to export Internet communications software and other materials to Iran.
"Instead, the Iranian government jams satellite signals to shut down television and radio broadcasts. It censors the Internet to control what the Iranian people can see and say. The regime monitors computers and cell phones for the sole purpose of protecting its own power," Obama added.
The U.S. president has used Nowruz for outreach to ordinary Iranians in the past, but it's unclear how many people are reached because of widespread Internet firewalls and efforts to block broadcasts such as Farsi language programs of the BBC and Voice of America. Still, satellite dishes are common — although illegal — and outside channels reach many Iranian homes.
The two nations are at odds because the West and its allies fear Iran could use its uranium enrichment program to eventually develop material for nuclear warheads. Iran says it only seeks reactors for energy and medical research.
Obama has urged for more time to allow sanctions to cut deeper into Iran's economy, which has been hit by the latest pressures targeting oil exports and the ability to conduct international banking. Israeli officials have said there is no decision yet on whether to launch a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, but analysts in both countries have become increasingly nervous about the risks of touching off a region-wide war.
In response to tougher sanctions, Iran had threatened to try to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Gulf — the route for about a fifth of the world's oil. However, Iran's military has made no actual moves to blockade the shipping lanes, and Kuwait's ruler was quoted Tuesday as saying Iran has assured its Gulf neighbors that it will not attempt to disrupt tanker traffic.
"We have received assurances from Iran that it will not take this step," Sheik Sabah Al Ahmed Al Sabah was quoted by the official Kuwait News Agency as saying. The agency said he made the statement to the Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun during a four-day state visit to Japan.
There was no immediate response from Iran.
But the emir said Kuwait is prepared to keep its oil customers supplied in the event of a disruption.
"For a long time, Kuwait has been working on providing a stockpile of oil through its global companies outside the Gulf region to ensure the constant supply to the countries importing the Kuwaiti oil," he was quoted as saying. He added that Kuwait was in touch with other Gulf countries "to face such a possibility."
In his televised speech, Khamenei claimed the West seeks only to dominate Iran's oil exports, the second largest in OPEC behind Saudi Arabia.
"If Iran was ready to surrender before them, as some countries in the region, they would not have any hostility toward Iran," said Khamenei.
Earlier Tuesday, Khamenei said that more support for domestic industrial production can counter Western sanctions over Tehran's nuclear program.
The official IRNA news agency quoted Khamenei as saying that Iran can withstand the economic pressures, which include blocking many Iranian banks from the network that handles most international banking transfers.
Iran has faced decades of sanctions. The latest sanctions placed in recent months are far tougher however than previous ones and target Iran's banking sector and critical oil exports that provide around $75 billion, some 80 percent of the country's foreign revenue.
"If the Iranian nation resorts to its determination, awareness and planning it will overcome challenges that the enemy has provided," said Khamenei, who has the final say on all state matters.
He said that if Iran's domestic economy flourishes, the country's enemies would lose hope and their "plotting" would come to an end.
The Iranian leader said the government should support industry and agriculture, investors and workers should boost production and consumers should choose domestic products rather than imported ones.
The country imports nearly $50 billion worth of machinery, cars, home appliances, and food including fruit, meat and rice.
In Washington, the Treasury Department issued new guidelines Tuesday allowing U.S. companies to export software and other materials to Iran that support Internet messaging services like Skype and Yahoo Messenger, Internet browsers and other online communications capabilities.
"The United States will continue to draw attention to the electronic curtain that is cutting the Iranian people off from the world," Obama said. "And we hope that others will join us in advancing a basic freedom for the Iranian people: the freedom to connect with one another, and with their fellow human beings."
Murphy reported from Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
Copyright 2012 The Associated Press.


text:
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- RSV Vaccine Given in Pregnancy to Help Shield Newborns Receives Full U.S. Approval
- Many Americans Frustrated in Search for Low-Cost COVID Boosters
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Surgery Isn't Only Option for Women With Ovarian Cancer Genes
Breast-feeding, birth control pills and having fallopian tubes tied may help reduce ovarian cancer risk in women with BRCA gene mutations, a new review suggests.
Women with BRCA gene mutations are at increased risk for breast and ovarian cancers. These findings suggest ways that women with these inherited mutations can reduce their ovarian cancer risk without having their ovaries surgically removed, the University of Pennsylvania researchers said.
"Patients deserve better cancer-risk reduction options than surgically removing their healthy breasts and ovaries," review co-author Dr. Susan Domchek, executive director of the Basser Research Center for BRCA at Penn Medicine's Abramson Cancer Center, said in a university news release.
Domchek and her colleagues reviewed 44 studies and found that breast-feeding and tubal ligation were associated with lower rates of ovarian cancer in women with a BRCA1 mutation, while the use of birth control pills was associated with a reduced risk of ovarian cancer in women with BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations.
The researchers also identified factors that may increase the risk of cancer in women with BRCA mutations. For example, smoking may heighten the risk of breast cancer in women with a BRCA 2 mutation.
The findings are to be published in the June issue of the Journal of the National Cancer Institute.
"Our analysis reveals that heredity is not destiny, and that working with their physicians and counselors, women with BRCA mutations can take proactive steps that may reduce their risk of being diagnosed with ovarian cancer," lead author Timothy Rebbeck, professor of epidemiology and cancer epidemiology and risk reduction program leader at the Abramson Cancer Center, said in the news release.
"The results of the analysis show that there is already sufficient information indicating how some variables might affect the risk of cancer for these patients," he added.
About 39 percent of women with a harmful BRCA1 mutation and up to 17 percent of those with a harmful BRCA2 mutation will develop ovarian cancer by age 70, compared with 1.4 percent of women in the general population.
Between 55 percent and 65 percent of women with a harmful BRCA1 mutation and 45 percent of women with a harmful BRCA2 mutation will develop breast cancer by age 70, compared with about 12 percent of women in the general population.
Both BRCA mutations have also been linked with increased risk for several other types of cancer, according to the researchers.
"It's imperative that we continue examining and building upon past research in this area so that we can provide BRCA mutation carriers with options at every age, and at every stage of their lives," Domchek noted.
More information
The U.S. National Library of Medicine has more about ovarian cancer.
Source: HealthDay
Copyright © 2023 HealthDay. All rights reserved.


text: Next year's scheduled changeover to chip-and-pin debit and credit cards is expected to reduce in-store fraud, while significantly increasing fraudulent purchases online, experts say.[Major attacks on retailers cast spotlight on higher security cards]Recent high-profile break-ins of electronic cash registers at retailers Target and Neiman Marcus has added urgency to Visa and MasterCard's plan to dump the swipe-and-sign cards used today by U.S. consumers. In their place will be so-called EMV cards that store security data in an embedded chip.Carolyn Balfany, head of MasterCard's U.S. product delivery group, told The Wall Street Journal that a key deadline, called the "liability shift," would occur October 2015. That's when retailers and banks still supporting the kind of debit- and credit-cards used today will be liable for losses resulting from fraudulent use of the cards."Whenever card fraud happens, we need to determine who is liable for the costs," Balfany said. "When the liability shift happens, what will change is that if there is an incidence of card fraud, whichever party has the lesser technology will bear the liability."EMV cards, which have been used for years in Europe, require people to input a PIN to complete a transaction with a retailer.Payments cards in use today in the U.S. have a magnetic stripe for storing data, a decades old technology that hackers can easily mimic when using stolen credit-card numbers to make counterfeit cards.While in-store fraud with bogus cards is expected to decline, the reverse is predicted for online retailers, which won't experience any significant improvement in security with the switch to EMV cards, experts say.Instead of using stolen credit-card numbers at stores, criminals will intensify such activity online."Fraud is much like natural phenomenon, whether that be the flow of water or electricity, in that it moves to the path of least resistance," Al Pascual, analyst for Javelin Strategy & Research, which focuses on the financial industry, said.While websites could require the PIN before completing a transaction, hackers could just as easily steal that data along with the card number."It's uncertain to see how moving to EMV can really secure anything online at this point," said David Kennedy, founder and security consultant of TrustedSec.In time, the credit-card industry could develop ways to leverage the technology in EMV cards to bolster online security.For example, a near-field communication (NFC) reader, either built into a PC or sold as a USB accessory, could be used to authenticate the EMV card to complete an online transaction. The chip embedded in the card could also be used in making purchases through a mobile phone, many of which support NFC.[Target POS terminals were infected with malware]"EMV cards do not currently offer much in the way of protection from CNP (card-not-present) fraud," Pascual said. "(But) there is talk of leveraging the NFC capabilities of mobile devices and contactless EMV cards to authenticate e-commerce and m-commerce transactions."Pascual predicts some form of NFC authentication will become popular between 2015 and 2016.The use of EMV cards is supported by the Payment Card Industry (PCI) Security Standards Council, which sets the rules retailers follow in accepting payment cards. The council has said that use of EMV cards will not change current security standards.


text:
Red Sox - 003 000 000 - 3 8 1 Royals - 300 100 00x - 4 9 0Lester (5-6-4-1-3, 108) threw 38 pitches in the first inning, insuring that he would have a short night. It was a bizarre inning in which Marlon Byrd committed an two-base error on a ball hit right at him and Cody Ross bobbled and lost control of another fly ball on the track in left-center. All three first-inning runs were unearned.
Boston loaded the bases in the third on singles by Byrd, Ryan Sweeney and Dustin Pedroia. With two outs, Adrian Gonzalez brought them all in, tying the game with a double to right-center.
The Royals retook the lead on doubles by Irving Falu and Alcides Escobar.
In the ninth, against Jonathan Broxton, Ross singled and Jarrod Saltalamacchia walked. Bobby Valentine had Byrd bunt the runners to second and third. That did no good, as Sweeney lined out to short left and Mike Aviles grounded out to shortstop.
Will Middlebrooks went 0-for-4 (K, 1-3, 6-3, F9) and did not set a new record with at least one extra-base hit in the first six games of his career. He'll have to settle for sharing the MLB record of five games with Enos Slaughter.
It was a chore to listen to NESN tonight.
Dennis Eckersley harped on a first-inning non-strike call made by home plate umpire Jeff Nelson against Lester for the entire night. (He whined and moaned so much I thought he was auditioning for a job in the Tampa Bay booth.) If Lester had been given the call, it would have ended a 1-2-3 first inning on 14 pitches. Eck's point was the non-strike three call - which, by the way, was not a strike according to NESN's pitch zone - "forced" Lester to throw another 24 pitches. So, Lester had 24 additional chances to get the final out and couldn't do it, all because the big, bad umpire did his job correctly. An ace has got to rise above stuff like that (and misplays in the field); Lester couldn't do it. (I was hoping to post the f/x picture, but it does not currently have Lester's info.)
Also, in the top of the first, Don Orsillo said something about Chen's starts at Kauffman Stadium this year and then told us Chen's career won-loss record at home (30-26). What makes this useless bit of trivia even more pointless is that Chen has pitched for 10 teams in his 15-year major league career and, therefore, has called 10 different parks "home". Memo to Orsillo: Just because something is in the media guide or that night's press notes doesn't mean you have to read it.
Aviles, SSRIP Carl Beane.
Pedroia, 2B
Ortiz, DH
Gonzalez, 1B
Middlebrooks, 3B
Ross, LF
Saltalamacchia, C
Byrd, CF
Sweeney, RF