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The Duplex by Glenn McCoy and Gary McCoy for January 03, 2019
30 Comments
Featured CommentShow All Comments
According to a November 2017 Economist/YouGov poll, 17 percent of Americans ages 18 to 29 now believe that a man inviting a woman out for a drink "always" or "usually" constitutes sexual harassment. (https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/12/the-sex-recession/573949/)
I would say, be very carefully. :-P

subset: commoncrawl


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The Netflix Inc (NASDAQ: NFLX) stock price has been one of the best performers on US stock exchanges over the past 20 years. So what happens next?
The Era Netflix Left Behind
According to Parrot Analytics Netflix today has a 68% share of the global subscription video-on-demand market, a market that it effectively created. Netflix has 148 million subscribers globally and is responsible for an astonishing 15% of all internet traffic.
In achieving this position of dominance, Netflix saw off feeble competitive responses from Comcast, ESPN and HBO. It successfully evolved its business model from a DVD mail-order rental company, which contributed to the destruction of Blockbuster Video, to streaming library content from movie and TV studios, to being a major force in the creation of original content.
Netflix spent US$12 billion on content in 2018, around US$10 billion of which was on original programming, and total content spending is expected to rise to about US$15 billion this year, more than seven times what HBO will spend.
In 2018, Netflix won more Emmy nominations than any other network, cable provider or streaming service, ending a 17-year run of dominance by HBO. Just in case you haven't heard about Netflix, it will spend close to US$3 billion this year just on marketing; that's more than HBO will spend on programming.
The Era Netflix Has Entered
The business of streaming subscription video is rapidly becoming much more competitive. Fellow FAANGs see streaming video as a service to strengthen their 'platform' or 'ecosystem'. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) has over 100 million Prime subscribers in the US alone and is looking at video as another service to increase the value and 'stickiness' of Prime membership.
Amazon Prime Video is expected to spend US$6 billion on content in 2019. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), which is increasingly shifting its focus from selling hardware to selling software, services and subscriptions, has budgeted US$2 billion on programming investment this year for Apple TV Plus.
Hulu, now majority-owned by Disney (NYSE: DIS), has 27 million paying subscribers in the US – almost half as many as Netflix has in the same market – and it is adding them at twice the pace of Netflix. Despite its vast spending on original programming, 'library content' from other studios accounts for 72% of time spent watching Netflix, according to Nielsen. In fact, all six most popular shows, and eight of the nine most-watched shows on Netflix, are licensed from external studios.
Studios, originally Netflix's partners as content providers, first saw Netflix as a way to monetise old TV shows and movies ('Gosh, who would've thought these re-runs were worth so much? What else can I license to ya?'). They now see that they've helped create a direct competitor and in response have begun to withdraw large amounts of critical content from Netflix. Disney, Time Warner (HBO), NBC Universal and CBS, among others, are all in the process of launching subscription streaming services backed by vast content libraries and enormous programming budgets, and they want to have their content on their own service.
Disney, with its formidable array of characters and movies from Disney Studios, Marvel, Pixar, Lucas Films and Fox Studios, has already pulled all of its content from Netflix. The most popular show on Netflix, The Office, will move to NBCUniversal's new streaming service in 2021, while the second most-watched show, Friends, is leaving at the end of this year to move to Warner's new HBO Max.
Maturing Core Market
Netflix already has more subscribers in the US than the entire cable TV industry, and in the UK its subscriber base this year is expected to exceed Sky's. The rate of penetration growth in developed markets will necessarily slow from here. Netflix may look to compensate for slowing subscriber growth by raising prices, but it's a risky move when some of its most popular content is leaving or already gone.
This article was written by Stephen Arnold, CFA, founder and Chief Investment Officer of Aoris Investment Management. Click here to download Stephen's free Owner's Manual for investing better.
Stephen Arnold, CFA
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This appealing 2 story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths on a 8,712 sq. ft. lot with RV parking. Located in a desirable cul-de-sac in Henderson, close to schools, shopping and freeway access. Other benefits to this charming home is the epoxy flooring downstairs, family room plus living room and dining room, large lot with full patio cover, enclosed front porch and NO SID or HOA.
Listing courtesy of Coldwell Banker Premier. Selling Office: .


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4400 Wildhorse Lane, Smithton, IL 62285 US Columbia, Waterloo, Valmeyer, Monroe County Real Estate Home
4400 Wildhorse Lane, Smithton, Illinois
Property Details
Listing Information
- Bedrooms: 3
- Baths: 2
- Partial Baths: 0
- Lot Size: .34 acres +/-
- Style: 1 Story
- Garage: 2 Car
- Heat Source: Gas
- Schools: Smithton
- Taxes: $4,750
More Information
Property Description
Immaculate move in ready 3 bedroom home in Smithton! The brick front, well maintained shrubbery, and covered front porch make a great first impression. Step inside to the foyer to be greeted by beautiful hardwood floors and soaring vaulted ceilings. Head to the living room to find newer carpet and great natural light. The open floor plan leads from the living room to the spacious dining area w/ beautiful hardwood floors and french doors leading to the composite deck. Step into the kitchen to find ceramic tile floors, refrigerator, dishwasher, electric stove, and breakfast area w/ door leading to the covered patio. The gorgeous master bedroom suite is sure to impress w/ its beautiful hardwood floors, dual closets and attached master bathroom w/ ceramic tile floors and a linen closet. The spacious second and third bedrooms offer great natural light and closets. Also find the full hall bathroom w/ linen closet & ceramic tile floors. Also noteworhty is the 2 car side entry garage.
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UK pensions race to de-risk before Brexit
Prudential Retirement, a unit of Prudential Financial, Inc., has concluded about $2.6 billion in previously undisclosed longevity reinsurance contracts in the U.K. pension risk transfer market so far in 2019. As part of these transactions, Prudential Retirement is assuming the longevity risks of approximately 16,000 pensioners.
Many UK pensions are seeking to close agreements prior to the original March 29 Brexit deadline, a Prudential release said. But the recent extension of the Brexit deadline to late October, pensions have an unexpected window to move forward and de-risk.
Demand for de-risking solutions has also been driven by the robust funded status of U.K. schemes, which have improved markedly since 2016, the release said. The funding level of the average U.K. pension scheme stood at 100.1% on March 29.
"Pension schemes that can afford to de-risk have raced forward in the opening months of 2019, taking advantage of the window before Brexit to reduce their risks and lock in gains," said Amy Kessler, head of longevity reinsurance at Prudential Financial, in the release. "Brexit brings increasing levels of uncertainty that could wash away recent market gains and funding improvements, putting de-risking out of reach for those with lower hedge ratios. But with funding at the highest levels in a decade, pensions are de-risking at an unprecedented pace."
"Another impetus to de-risk is the notable decline in U.K. mortality rates during the last 10 months," said Christian Ercole, vice president at Prudential Financial. "The resulting level of market activity favors insurers and reinsurers who have invested in their pricing and analytics teams, and it also favors pension funds that come prepared with credible and complete data."
Prudential said it has completed more than $60 billion in international reinsurance transactions since 2011, including the largest on record, a $27.7 billion transaction involving the BT Pension Scheme.
'The environment' ranks low when choosing investments: Allianz Life
When deciding whether to invest in or do business with a company, U.S. investors give its social and governance behavior as much or more weight than its environmental record, according to Allianz Life's ESG Investor Sentiment Study.
The study also found that most consumers believe companies focused on ESG issues have better long-term prospects.
When asked about the importance of a variety of ESG topics in their decisions to invest in a company, 73% of American consumers noted environmental concerns like natural resource conservation or a company's carbon footprint/impact on climate change.
However, the same percentage emphasized social issues such as working conditions of employees or racial/gender equality, and 69% highlighted governance topics like transparency of business practices and finances or level of executive compensation.
About a third (34%) of respondents said a company's stance on social issues was the most important factor in their decision to do business with a company, followed by 27% who ranked corporate governance issues as the top priority. Only 22% cited a company's record on environmental issues as their chief concern.
Nearly 80% of those surveyed said they "love the idea of investing in companies that care about the same issues" they do, and 74% believe an ESG investment strategy is "not only one that you can feel good about, but one that makes long-term financial sense." A full 71% percent also said they would stop investing in a company if it behaved in ways they consider unethical.
A significant gap still exists, however, actions and words. More than three-quarters of respondents (76% to 84%) said safe working conditions for employees, transparency in business practices and finances, living wages to employees, quality health insurance offerings, and natural resource conservation were important to them. Yet, fewer than half (40% to 44%) said they chose to invest/not invest based on those same business practices.
Investors more often choose to reward companies for good behavior rather than punish them for bad behavior.
Among the 16 ESG issues highlighted in the study, 11 issues were more influential in investors' decision to actively invest, including carbon footprint/impact on climate change, charitable contributions, and involvement in reducing poverty and wages provided to employees. Only two issues were more influential in causing people to stop investing in a company: animal testing and donations to political candidates/PACs.
A complete list of ESG issues that impact investment decisions, as well as additional data from the ESG Investor Sentiment Study, can be found at www.allianzlife.com/ESG.
OASDI reserves rise $3 billion and gain a year of viability
The financial health of the OASDI (Old Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance) program improved a bit last year, its Board of Trustees announced this week. The combined asset reserves of the OASI and DI Trust Funds increased by $3 billion in 2018 to a total of $2.895 trillion.
The Social Security reserves are projected to run out in 2034, the same as last year's estimate, with 77% of promised benefits payable at that time. The DI reserves are estimated to run out in 2052–20 years from last year's estimate of 2032–with 91% of benefits still payable.
In their 2019 Annual Report to Congress, the Trustees announced:
In 2020, for the first time since 1982, the total annual cost of the program is projected to exceed revenue. The cost will remain higher throughout the 75-year projection period. Reserves are expected to decline during 2020. Social Security's cost has exceeded its non-interest income since 2010.
The year when the combined trust fund reserves are projected to become depleted, if Congress does not act before then, is 2035 – gaining one year from last year's projection. At that time, there would be sufficient income coming in to pay 80% of scheduled benefits.
"The Trustees recommend that lawmakers address the projected trust fund shortfalls in a timely way in order to phase in necessary changes gradually and give workers and beneficiaries time to adjust to them," said Nancy A. Berryhill, Acting Commissioner of Social Security.
"The large change in the reserve depletion date for the DI Fund is mainly due to continuing favorable trends in the disability program. Disability applications have been declining since 2010, and the number of disabled-worker beneficiaries receiving payments has been falling since 2014."
Other highlights of the Trustees Report include:
Total income, including interest, to the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds amounted to just over $1 trillion in 2018, including $885 billion from net payroll tax contributions, $35 billion from taxation of benefits, and $83 billion in interest. Total expenditures from the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds amounted to $1 trillion in 2018.
Social Security paid benefits of nearly $989 billion in calendar year 2018. There were about 63 million beneficiaries at the end of the calendar year.
The projected actuarial deficit over the 75-year long-range period is 2.78% of taxable payroll – lower than the 2.84% projected in last year's report. During 2018, an estimated 176 million people had earnings covered by Social Security and paid payroll taxes.
The cost of $6.7 billion to administer the Social Security program in 2018 was a very low 0.7% of total expenditures. The combined Trust Fund asset reserves earned interest at an effective annual rate of 2.9% in 2018.
The Board of Trustees usually comprises six members. Four serve by virtue of their positions with the federal government: Steven T. Mnuchin, Secretary of the Treasury and Managing Trustee; Nancy A. Berryhill, Acting Commissioner of Social Security; Alex M. Azar II, Secretary of Health and Human Services; and R. Alexander Acosta, Secretary of Labor. The two public trustee positions are currently vacant.
View the 2019 Trustees Report at www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/TR/2019/.
CBO expects slower real GDP growth in 2019
In CBO's projections, the federal budget deficit is about $900 billion in 2019 and exceeds $1 trillion each year beginning in 2022. Over the coming decade, deficits (after adjustments to exclude shifts in the timing of certain payments) fluctuate between 4.1% and 4.7% of gross domestic product (GDP), well above the average over the past 50 years.
CBO's projection of the deficit for 2019 is now $75 billion less—and its projection of the cumulative deficit over the 2019–2028 period, $1.2 trillion less—than it was in spring 2018. That reduction in projected deficits results primarily from legislative changes—most notably, a decrease in emergency spending.
Because of persistently large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow steadily, reaching 93% of GDP in 2029 (its highest level since just after World War II) and about 150% of GDP in 2049—far higher than it has ever been. Moreover, if lawmakers amended current laws to maintain certain policies now in place, even larger increases in debt would ensue.
Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3% in 2019—down from 3.1% in 2018—as the effects of the 2017 tax act on the growth of business investment wane and federal purchases, as projected under current law, decline sharply in the fourth quarter of 2019. Nevertheless, output is projected to grow slightly faster than its maximum sustainable level this year, continuing to boost the demand for labor and to push down the unemployment rate.
After 2019, annual economic growth is projected to slow further—to an average of 1.7% through 2023, which is below CBO's projection of potential growth for that period. From 2024 to 2029, economic growth and potential growth are projected to average 1.8% per year—less than their long-term historical averages, primarily because the labor force is expected to grow more slowly than it has in the past.
© 2019 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.


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Stress Awareness Week
During SATs week, GCSEs exam period and Mental Health Awareness Week, we take a look at whether parents could pass a GCSE in science.
Parents often say "exams were harder in my day", but do they really appreciate how hard GCSEs are? And could they do better than their children? When it comes to GCSE science, it looks like the answer is a resounding no! When online learning company Tassomai asked parents to put their science knowledge to the test, they didn't compare to their children who scored significantly higher marks.


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The Hawk3i team,
dedicated to making your company more successful.
Don Hawkinson
Don is an innovative marketer who passionately works to make the customer experience exceptional for every project. He is well regarded for taking a unique and creative approach to marketing for every program his team produces. He works with clients to drive business growth, tackle systemic challenges, build brands and launch new ventures.
As a business leader he has built a collection of skills in a full range of marketing disciplines and has racked up experience in everything from launching websites, designing effective marketing programs, developing go-to-market programs, filming commercials, designing large events and championing customer first programs.
For over 25 years, Don has been committed to helping organizations market effectively in diverse industries including high-tech, oil and gas, entertainment, communications, health, banking, mining and business training. He started his career at Storage Technology Corporation, a global fortune 500 manufacturing company based in Colorado. He was responsible for leading a large team of marketing professionals to engage worldwide customers and a channel partners in a fast paced high-technology industry.
Don is highly regarded for developing successful strategic marketing programs, planning, project management, event production, product launches and sales conferences in the US, Europe and Asia. His emphasis and passion is leading the design and management of digital marketing and commerce programs. He is an award winning producer, writer, director and cinematographer. He earned a Bachelors degree for industrial scientific photography from the Brooks Institute in Santa Barbara, California.
Susan Hawkinson
Owner / Photographer
Susan Hawkinson is the co-owner of Hawk Productions, Inc. Her leadership responsibilities include chief financial officer, director of human resources, and is a highly regarded professional photographer. Susan holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in commercial and underwater photography from the world-renowned Brooks Institute in Santa Barbara, California.
Over the course of her career Susan has produced exceptional commercial images for clients such as Maverick Ranch Lite Beef, Safeway, Denver University, the City of Golden, and numerous publications. Susan also owns and manages a real estate investment company and is a managing partner of Richlor vineyards in Sonoma County, California. She is fluent in the French language, and leverages her communications and leadership skills as an international flight attendant for American Airlines. Susan raised three very successful children who are attending prestigious universities in California.
Brooke Reints
Graphic Designer
Brooke earned a BA in Art, with a concentration in Graphic Design from the University of Wyoming in 2014. Along with her schooling, she worked as a Graphic Designer for the Student Affairs Marketing Department at UW. In this position, she was heavily involved with web and print design. Her duties ranged from maintaining the departments website and social media accounts, to designing marketing collateral to support several departments and events across campus.
After earning her degree, Brooke worked as a Graphic Designer and Digital Print Machine Operator for a design and printing company. In this position, Brooke was in charge of design services, and was responsible for setting up and running the digital print machines to produce high quality printed material.
Brooke's experience has allowed her to become very comfortable in creative design, and has given her the ability to take part in a project from the beginning stages of strategy and concept development, to creating and designing material, to the final stages of digital and print output to be used in the marketing world.


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Police Officer's Friendship With Homeless Vet Is An Example Of True Compassion.
Dena taught Bob the sanitation basics, which is something most people learn when they're young.
Then she checked up on him on a regular basis to make sure that he was okay. She also brought him supplies like food and even cleaned his apartment. But sometimes she would just go to keep the poor lonely man some company.
11 Alive
Then Bob got very sick, and Dena feared the worst for her friend, so she became his power of attorney.
This allowed her to make medical decisions for him. It was a tough decision, but Dena didn't complain. Unfortunately, Bob took a turn for the worse, and she decided to put him in hospice. But she stayed by his side every step of the way.
11 Alive
Then she said those three words that are said too much but not often enough to the poor man.
"She held his hand and told him many times that she loved him," wrote Shannon. Meanwhile, Dena stuck around while waiting for nature to take its inevitable course. But this special and heartbreaking moment would not be forgotten.
PS Mag
Shannon took a photograph of Dena and Bob's final moments together before he passed away.
"I've never been more proud of any friend than I was today of Dena Walker Pauly. It's hard for her to say goodbye to Bob. I told him he's changed her life forever because I know it's true," she said.
She then shared this touching story with a nearby funeral home and they offered to do the services at no cost.
Dena also took Bob's remains home so he could be with her forever. Although it was tough saying goodbye, both women are hopeful that he's found peace and happiness after crossing over.
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Alec Baldwin Is Ditching The Trump Wig
The President will be happy.
The President will be happy.
This book tells all. Watch
Kristen Wiig makes her views known over anti-abortion bill.
Imagine if she got inked by Weezy while he was freestyling. That probably didn't happen,
We also thank her therapist because we need more Grande music.
This can't look good for his new show on ABC. That wasn't very family friendly
You aren't getting Kanye West on SNL this week don't worry. Also, we're really curious
Pete Davidson has something to say about his canceled engagement with Ariana Grande.
Ariana Grande made her love of Pete Davidson known on Instagram this week in a