text:
Portable quadriceps exerciser
A portable quadriceps muscle exerciser includes a frame member on which a user sits with one buttock and thigh so that the lower leg dangles from the knee joint at the forward end of the device. Spaced bracket members project on opposite sides of the knee and pivotally support a pair of spaced arm members about a pivot axis which is substantially coaxial with the bending axis of the knee joint. The distal ends of the arm members are connected by a cross-piece which engages the patient's instep. One or more elastic straps extend between the frame member and the distal arm ends to resist rotation of the arms as the patient's leg is straightened. The location of the attachment of the straps to the frame member is adjustable to adjust the strap tension. In a preferred embodiment the frame member is a box into which all of the components can be pivoted for storage and which raises the patient's foot above the floor. The front wall of the box is secured to the straps and re-positionable to adjust the strap tension.
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The present invention relates to exercise devices in general and, more particularly, to devices which permit exercise of the quadriceps muscle.BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION
It is widely known that the stability of the knee joint depends primarily on the strength of the quadriceps muscle. It is widely recognized that strengthening and rehabilitation of the quadriceps muscle is best achieved by having a patient straighten his or her knee joint in opposition to a resistive force applied at the patient's instep. Such devices for exercising a quadriceps muscle are found, for example, in U.S. Pat. No. 3,120,954 (Apostol), U.S. Pat. No. 3,558,131 (Dragon), U.S. Pat. No. 4,254,949 (Brentham) and U.S. Pat. No. 4,304,401 (Goodman). The Apostol, Dragon and Brentham devices are relatively large and not readily moved from place to place. Thus, the Apostol and Dragon devices, which are used for exercising muscles other than the quadriceps, are practical only for use in the office of a physical therapist or in such other public exercise facility. The Brentham device, which takes the form of a chair with built in exercising apparatus, is practical for home use but is not sufficiently portable to permit it to be taken with the patient on a trip, or the like. The Goodman device is relatively portable in that it can be readily lifted in one hand and transported by a patient. However, in achieving the desirable portability feature Goodman has sacrificed tension adjustability and other considerations. Specifically, Goodman employs a planar surface supported at approximately chair height in front of a suitable chair. The patient sits in the chair with his leg extending over the planar surface so that the knee bends and the lower part of the leg is suspended. An elastomeric strap is secured to the patient's instep so that the patient may straighten his or her leg against the tension in the strap to exercise the quadriceps muscle. The tension in the strap is not adjustable so that the Goodman arrangement has limited use in view of the varying degrees of muscle strengthening and rehabilitation needs of a user. Moreover, the Goodman apparatus, in use, places relatively high stress on the patient's knee since the greatest tensile stress in the strap occurs when the gravitational force acting on the patient's leg is at a maximum (i.e., as the leg approaches its straightened position). Additional stress is placed on the knee by virtue of the fact that the effective pivot axis of the apparatus is considerably below the bending axis of the knee, resulting in strain on the knee rather than on the quadriceps muscle during the use of this device. In this regard, it should be noted that the only prior art known to me wherein the effective pivot axis of the exercise device is aligned with the bending axis of the knee is the Brentham device. However, in Brentham, as noted above, the apparatus is not sufficiently portable to permit it to be carried from place to place in one hand. In addition, the Brentham device lacks sufficient adjustability in the resistive force against which the patient is exercising. Still further, the Brentham device is designed to exercise both the quadriceps muscle and the hamstring muscle. This is achieved by utilizing an hydraulic element to resist both upward and downward movement of the lower portion of the leg. While a device for exercising both the quadriceps and hamstring muscles is desirable, the use of a single resistive element for both muscles in a single exercise routine presents severe calibration problems. More particularly, it is difficult to find a common resistive force which is suitable for exercising both the hamstring and quadriceps muscles.SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION
It is therefore an object of the present invention to provide a portable quadriceps exercising device which places minimal strain on the knee joint.
It is another object of the present invention to provide a portable quadriceps muscle exerciser in which the exercise force which must be exerted by the user is readily adjustable to a specific calibration.
It is yet another object of the present invention to provide a portable quadriceps exerciser device which can be readily carried about by a patient and deployed quickly and simply.
It is still another object of the present invention to provide a portable quadriceps exercising device in which the carrying case is an integral part of the device and is capable of storing all of the exercise components therein.
In accordance with the present invention, a portable quadriceps exerciser includes a frame member on which a user sits with one buttock and thigh so that the knee is disposed just forward of the frame member and the lower leg dangles therefrom. The frame member may be a flatboard or the top wall of a box used to store the exerciser components when they are not in use. A pair of brackets project forwardly of the frame member and pivotally support a pair of arm members for pivotal movement about an axis which is substantially coaxial with the bending axis of the user's knee. The distal ends of the arm members are joined by a cross-piece which is aligned with the instep of the user so that the user may rotate the arm members upward and away from the frame member as the user straightens his or her leg. One or more rubber straps are connected between the frame member and the distal ends of the arm members to provide a tension force against movement which opposes straightening of the user's leg. The point of attachment of the rubber straps to the frame member is adjustable so that the tension force is adjustable for different needs. In the preferred embodiment, the front wall of the box is secured to the straps and is mountable at different longitudinal locations to provide the tension adjustability. The height of the box is selected so that, when placed on a conventional chair, it permits the dangling leg of a user to be raised above the floor.BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
The above and still further objects, features and advantages of the present invention will become apparent upon consideration of the following details and description of specific embodiments thereof, especially when taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, wherein:
FIG. 1 is a view in perspective of a preferred embodiment of the present invention illustrated in its closed or stored position;
FIG. 2 is a longitudinal sectional view of the embodiment of FIG. 1 shown in its stored or closed condition;
FIG. 3 is a longitudinal sectional view similar to FIG. 2 but wherein the device is shown in its deployed condition;
FIG. 4 is a view in section taken along lines 4--4 of FIG. 3;
FIG. 5 is a top view of the embodiment of FIG. 1 shown with its cover removed;
FIG. 6 is a top view in plan of a second embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 7 is a side view of the embodiment of FIG. 6.DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS
Referring specifically to FIGS. 1-5 of the accompanying drawings, a portable quadriceps muscle exerciser 10 is housed in an enclosed box having a top wall 11, bottom wall 13, side walls 15 and 17, front end wall 19 and rear end wall 21. The box is illustrated as having rectangular cross-sections in each of its length, width and depth dimensions; however, this is not an important aspect of the invention and cross-sectional variations from rectangular can be employed within the scope of the invention. Bottom wall 13 serves as a cover for the box and is hinged to the bottom portion of side wall 17 by means of hinges 23. A pair of conventional snap-closure latch member 25 are provided at the opposite side of the box to permit the bottom wall cover to be latched closed to side wall 15.
Front wall 19 has an outer surface from which a handle member 27 projects. The handle member 27 permits the box to be easily lifted and carried about in one hand. To this end, the box may be made of rigid lightweight wood, plastic or other composition. A pair of hooks, 29, 30 project upwardly from the interior surface of front wall 19 and are threaded so as to engage respective ends of handle 27 through suitably provided holes in front wall 19. Front wall 19 is removably mounted in the front end position of the box by means of a pair of transversely-aligned channels 31, 33 extending-vertically in side walls 15, 17 respectively. The channels 31, 33 mate with corresponding flanges 35, 37 (see FIG. 5) which project from the front wall 19. Flanges 35, 37 are slidably received in grooves 31, 33 so that front wall 19 can be removed when the cover or bottom wall 13 is open. A plurality of aligned pairs of similar channels 39, 41 are defined in side walls 15, 17, respectively, and are also sized to slidably receive flanges 35, 37 of front wall 19. Each channel pair 39, 41 is disposed at a different distance from the front end of the box so that front wall 19 can be positioned at different distances from the front end, as desired. When positioned in a channel pair 39, 41, front wall 19 faces the opposite direction from its end position in channel 31, 33 so that its interior surface and hooks 29, 30 face the forward direction in the box.
A pair of transversely-spaced elongated bracket members 43, 45 are pivotally mounted at their proximal ends on the interior sides of respective side walls 15, 17 about a common pivot axis A. Pivot axis A may represent an elongated rod extending transversely of the box and secured to the sidewalls 15, 17 in journaled relation with bracket members 43, 45. The bracket members are broadened in the width dimension at their distal ends and pivotally support respective arm members 49, 51 by means of pivot pins 53 or the like. The two pivot pins define a common transverse pivot axis for the arm members 49, 51. Bracket members 43, 45 and arm members 49, 51 are preferably made of steel, aluminum or other similarly strong and relatively lightweight material.
A first strap 55 of rubber or other elastomeric material is secured between the distal end of arm member 49 and hook 29. A second such strap 57 is secured between the distal end of arm member 51 and hook 30. A cross-piece 59 is secured between the distal ends of the two arm members 49, 51 and takes the form of a cushioned roller of the type conventionally employed in prior art exercise devices. The threaded ends of a shaft for roller 59 extend through suitable provided apertures in the distal ends of arm members 49, 51 and straps 55, 57 to be engaged by nuts 61 which secure these elements in place while permitting roller 59 to rotate in a conventional manner.
A strut member includes a cross-bar 63, of rectangular cross-section, journaled at its ends in respective frame members 43, 45. A support rod 65 is threadedly engaged at one of cross-bar 63 and has its other end free.
Bracket members 43, 45 are pivotable about axis A between a stowed or stored position (illustrated in FIG. 2) and a deployed position (illustrated in FIGS. 3 and 5). In the stowed position the bracket members are disposed entirely within the box and arm members 49, 51 are pivoted about pins 53 so that the arm members and roller 59 are likewise disposed entirely within the box. If, as illustrated in FIG. 3, front wall 19 is disposed in channels 31, 33 with the handle 27 facing outward, straps 55 and 57 are also disposed entirely within the box.
In order to rotate the bracket members to the deployed position, cover or bottom wall 13 is unlatched at 25 and opened. Front wall 19 is then removed from channels 31, 33 and the bracket members 43, 45 are pivoted about axis A until their distal ends project out through the front end of the box vacated by front wall 19. This results in arm members 49, 51 and roller 59 being disposed outside the box. Front wall 19 is then disposed in whichever channel pair 39, 41 provides the desired tension on the elastomeric straps 55 and 57 which thereby project out through the open front end of the box.
In order to use the unit for exercising the quadriceps muscle, a patient or user first places the box on a chair or similar flat surface. The patient then sits on the top wall 11 with the buttock and thigh of the leg having the muscle to be exercised. The thigh is longitudinally positioned with respect to the box such that the axis of bending of the knee is substantially co-axially aligned with pivot axis 53 as illustrated in FIG. 3. In this regard, it should be noted that the top or outer surface of top wall 11 is preferably flat, as shown, but may be otherwise contoured so long as it readily accommodates the thigh and buttock of the patient. Likewise, the bottom or outer surface of bottom wall 13 is illustrated as being flat so that it may properly rest without tilt on the seating surface of a chair, bench, or the like; however, variation from flatness may be accommodated as long as the box can be stably supported on a seat. With the patient thusly positioned, the lower part of the leg is placed between arm members 49, 51, so that roller 59 resides at or near the patient's instep, as illustrated in FIG. 3. The patient can then perform a quadriceps muscle strengthening exercise by straightening his or her leg against the tension force applied thereto by elastomeric straps 55, 57 via roller 59. In other words, the patient rotates roller 59 and arm member 49, 51 upward and away from the box (clockwise as viewed in FIG. 3).
As the roller is rotated approximately 90.degree. during the exercise, the opposing tension force effected by straps 55, 57 varies. This is because the direction of the force exerted on the roller 59 by straps 55, 57 varies as the arm members 49, 51 are rotated. More specifically, the direction of the resistant force of the straps is initially considerably displaced from the length dimension arm members 49, 51 so that a relatively large component of the resistant force acts perpendicular to the arm members and in opposition to the patient's upward leg rotation. As the arm members are pivoted upward, the direction of the resultant resistant force of the straps becomes closer to parallel to arm members 49, 51, thereby significantly reducing the perpendicular force component against which the patient is exerting force. Thus, as the patient's leg approaches the straightened position, which is the position of maximum stress on the knee joint, the effect of the resistant force of the straps becomes minimal and the patient's effort is exerted substantially against gravity only. It can be seen, therefore, that where gravity is minimal (i.e., in the 90.degree. bent position of the leg), the effective resistant force of the straps is maximum, and where the effect of gravity is maximum (i.e., the straightened leg position), the effective strap force is minimum. The total force (gravity plus the straps) acting against the patient's efforts is therefore very nearly uniform throughout the 90.degree. straightening of the knee. This desirable feature is not considered or achieved in portable prior art devices for exercising quadriceps muscles.
It should be noted that, when the unit is deployed in the manner illustrated in FIG. 3, a portion of the patient's weight is applied against top wall 11. With front wall 19 moved from the front end of the box to the desired channel pair 39, 41, the patient's weight could cause collapse of the front end of the box. In order to prevent this, the strut member 63, 65 is provided and is positioned along the length of bracket members 43, 45 so as to be located proximate the front end of the box in the deployed position of the unit. In addition, the strut member prevents bracket members 43, 45 from moving vertically when the apparatus is in use.
In addition to serving as self-contained storage compartment for the brackets, arms and straps, the box serves another practical function for the portable exerciser unit. Specifically, the box raises the patient's knee sufficiently above the floor so that the patient's foot is above the floor. The patient can therefore swing his or her leg through a full 90.degree. path without scraping the floor. The typical chair or bench seat is raised eighteen to twenty inches above the floor. Such seats are designed to permit the average adult to sit in the seat with his or her feet touching the floor. The height of the exerciser box is therefore made sufficient to permit the foot of the average sized adult to dangle above the floor when that adult is seated on the box placed on a chair or bench seat. Typically, the height of the box for this purpose is four to five inches.
The arm members 49, 51, as described above, are sized to permit roller 59 to contact the instep of the average sized person. The unit may be provided with alternative pairs of arm members of different lengths to accommodate unusually tall or short people.
In a working embodiment which I have constructed, the following dimensions, materials and parameters were employed. The box was made of finished oak, three-eights of an inch thick, with outside dimensions of twenty inches by seven and three-quarter inches by four and three-quarter inches. Front wall 19 was also finished oak and was one-quarter inch by four inches by seven and three-eighths inches. Eight pairs of channels 39, 41 were three-eighths inch wide, three-sixteenth inch deep and are spaced at successive one inch intervals beginning eleven inches from end wall 21 and extending rearward therefrom. The axial length of bracket members 43, 45 from pivot axis A to pivot axis 53 was eleven and one-quarter inches, and pivot axis 53 is displaced off that axis a distance of two and one-half inches. Arm members 49, 51 are typically fifteen inches long but may be provided in lengths of thirteen and seventeen inches. Straps 55 and 57 were twenty-two inches long. Pivot axis A was disposed fourteen inches from end wall 21. It is understood that those dimensions are pounded by way of example only and are not to be construed as limiting the scope of the present invention.
An alternative embodiment of the present invention is illustrated in FIGS. 6 and 7 to which express reference is now made. A flat board member 70 is of generally rectangular configuration and similar in size and shape to the top wall 11 of the embodiment of FIGS. 1-5. A pair of bracket members 71, 73 are fixedly secured to the side edges of board 70 by means of screws 75, or the like. The bracket members 71, 73 project beyond the forward edge 77 of the board and terminate in respective right angle flange portions 79, 81 which project upwardly when the apparatus is in use. Arm members 83, 85 are pivotally secured to respective bracket member flange portions 79, 81 so as to pivot about a common axis 80 which is disposed horizontally when the device is in use. A roller 86 is journaled between the distal ends of arm members 83, 85. A rubber strap 87 is secured at its ends to the distal ends of arm members 81, 83 by means of nuts 89 which engage threaded ends of the shaft 88 of roller 86.
A plurality of recesses 90 are spaced in longitudinal alignment along the top surface of board 70. Recesses 90 are each configured to receive a peg member 91. When the peg member is inserted in any of the recesses, a sufficient portion of the peg member projects upwardly from the board member to be engaged by the strap 87. Specifically, the strap 87 extends from the distal end of arm member 81, around peg 91 and back to the distal end of arm 83. The tension in strap 87 can be adjusted by placing the peg 91 in the appropriate recess 90.
In use, board 70 is placed on the seat of a board or bench with the top surface of the board, containing recesses 90, facing upward. The user sits on the board with one buttock and thigh so that the bending axis of his or her knee joint is co-axially aligned with pivot axis 80. In this regard, the upward projection of flange members 79, 81 permits this alignment of axes. Operation then proceeds in the same manner described above for the embodiment of FIGS. 1-5.
The embodiment of FIGS. 6 and 7 may, in some cases, not raise the patient's knee high enough so that the foot of the patient is not raised above the floor when the board is placed on the seat of a chair or bench. To overcome this, any suitable means of elevating the board on the chair, such as telephone books, etc., may be employed. Alternatively, the board may be provided with legs, such as telescopically retractable legs, which are capable of raising the board sufficiently.
While I have described and illustrated various specific embodiments of my invention, it will be clear that variations from the details of construction which are specifically illustrated and described may be resorted to without departing from the true spirit and scope of the invention as defined in the appended claims.
1. Apparatus for exercising the quadriceps muscle of a patient, said apparatus comprising:
- a support member which is sufficiently portable as to be easily and conveniently carried about in one hand by said patient, said support member including: a bottom portion adapted to be supported by a flat support surface; a forward end; and a top surface adapted to support a buttock and the back of a thigh of said patient such that the patient's knee joint extends beyond said forward end;
- a pair of bracket members secured to said suppot member to extend longitudinally forward of said forward end in transversely spaced relation on opposite sides of said patient's knee joint;
- a pair of substantially parallel transversely-spaced arm members, each pivotally attached to a respective bracket member to define a pivot axis which is substantially co-axially aligned with the axis of rotation of the knee joint of the patient, said arm members each having a length at least equal to the length of a lower leg portion of the patient;
- a cross-piece member extending transversely between said arm members at a location which is spaced from said pivot axis such that it contacts the instep of the patient's foot when the patient's knee joint is aligned with said pivot axis;
- elastomeric strap means secured to said arm members and to said support member for elastically resisting pivotal movement of said arm members about said pivot axis in a forward and upward direction;
- adjustable means for selectively adjusting the elastic resistance presented by said elastomeric strap means;
- wherein said elastomeric strap means includes two lengths of elastic strap, each length having a first point along its length secured to said first and second arm members, respectively, and wherein said adjustable means includes further means for securing said strap length at different locations along said support member; and
- wherein said support member is an enclosure having a cover which can be selectively opened, and a forward end wall which is selectively removable, wherein said bracket members are pivotally mounted inside said enclosure between stowed and deployed positions, said stowed position being such that said bracket members, arm members, cross-piece member and strap lengths are disposed within said disclosure, said deployed position being such that said bracket member projects forwardly beyond said removed forward end wall and said arm members, cross-piece member and straps are located outside said enclosure.
2. The apparatus according to claim 1;
- wherein said forward end wall has an interior surface;
- wherein said intermediate point of said strap is secured to said interior surface;
- wherein said further means includes a plurality of longitudinally-spaced recesses defined in said enclosure, each recess being adapted to receive said forward end wall with said interior surface facing the forward end of said enclosure.
3. The apparatus according to claim 2 wherein said enclosure is a box having top and bottom walls, two side walls, said front end wall and a rear end wall, wherein said top wall has a flat outer surface corresponding to said top surface, wherein said bottom wall has a flat outer surface corresponding to said bottom portion and is hinged to one of said side walls to serve as a cover, and wherein the depth of said box from top to bottom is less than the length of said arm members and sufficiently great to raise the foot of a patient above a floor when the apparatus is in use and placed on a seat which is approximately 18 to 20 inches above the floor.
4. The apparatus according to claim 3 further comprising strut means pivotally secured between said bracket members for structurally supporting said top wall above said bottom wall when said bracket members are in said deployed position.
5. Apparatus for exercising the quadriceps muscle of a patient, said apparatus comprising:
- an enclosure including a top wall, a bottom wall, a front wall and side walls, said enclosure being sufficiently portable to permit a patient to lift it and conveniently carry it about with one hand, said enclosure including means for removably engaging said front wall in said side walls such that said front wall can be easily removed from said enclosure;
- a pair of transversely spaced bracket members having first and second ends;
- mounting means for mounting said bracket members inside said enclosure proximate said first ends such that said bracket members are selectively movable between stored and deployed positions, said bracket member in said stored position residing entirely within said enclosure, said bracket members in said deployed position being positioned with their second ends projecting forwardly of said enclosure beyond the engaged location of the removed front wall;
- a pair of transversely-spaced arm members having first and second ends, each arm member having its first end pivotally engaged to a respective bracket member proximate the second end of said bracket member to permit simultaneous free pivotal movement of said arm members about a common pivot axis, said arm members being sufficiently short so as to be retained within said enclosure when said bracket members are in said stored position, said arm members having a length sufficient to extend from the knee joint to the instep of a patient using the apparatus;
- cross-piece means extending transversely between said arm members proximate the second end of said arm members; and
- elastomeric means secured between said arm members and said enclosure to resist pivotal movement of said arm members about said pivot axis in a direction upward and away from said enclosure when said bracket members are in said deployed position.
6. The apparatus according to claim 5 wherein one of said top and bottom walls constitutes a selectively openable cover for providing access to the enclosure interior, wherein said front wall provides structural support for said top wall against said bottom wall and is removable from engagement in said side walls only when said cover is open.
7. The apparatus according to claims 5 or 6 further comprising adjustable means for selectively adjusting the resistance to pivotal movement provided by said elastomeric means.
8. The apparatus according to claim 6 wherein said mounting means comprises pivotal mounting means to permit selective pivotal movement of said bracket members between said stored and deployed positions when said cover is open.
9. The apparatus according to claims 6 or 8;
- wherein said means for removably engaging said front wall includes vertically-extending and transversely-aligned channels defined in said side walls and transversely-projecting flanges defined in said front wall for mating with said channels;
- wherein said front wall has an interior surface and said elastomeric means comprises elastomeric strap means secured between said interior surface of said front wall and the second ends of said arm members; and
- wherein each of said side walls is provided with plural vertically-extending channels transversely aligned with a corresponding channel in the other of said side walls, said channels being configured to selectively receive said front wall in each pair of aligned channels at different spaced distances from the second ends of said arm members to selectively increase the resistive force applied via said strap means on said arm members.
10. The apparatus according to claim 9 further comprising strut means engaged between said bracket members for providing structural support between said top and bottom walls when said bracket members are in said deployed position.
11. The apparatus according to claim 10 wherein the height of said enclosure from top to bottom is such that when the bottom wall is placed on a seat which is approximately eighteen inches off the ground, a patient can sit in exercise position on the top wall with one buttock and thigh so that the foot and leg portions below the patient's knee can be dangled from between the deployed bracket members without touching the ground.
12. The apparatus according to claim 11 wherein the bending axis of a patient's knee joint, in said exercise position, is substantially coaxially aligned with said pivot axis.
13. The apparatus according to claim 5 wherein a patient uses the apparatus by sitting on the top wall with one buttock and corresponding thigh such that the leg portion below the knee joint can dangle from the enclosure and such that the bending axis of the patient's knee joint is substantially coaxially aligned with said first pivot axis.
|February 1964
|January 1971
|May 1972
|July 1975
|Snyder et al.
|May 27, 1980
|March 10, 1981
|January 12, 1982
|January 1967
|September 1981
- "Taylor at Work", Washington Post, Jun. 21, 1972, p. D1.
Type: Grant
Filed: Mar 24, 1982
Date of Patent: Aug 21, 1984
Assignee: Biokinetics, Inc. (Bethesda, MD)
Inventor: John W. Reese (Gaithersburg, MD)
Primary Examiner: Richard J. Apley
Assistant Examiner: Chris Coppens
Law Firm: Epstein & Edell
Application Number: 6/361,404
International Classification: A63B 2102; A63B 2104;


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Last night, Brighton City Council approved ballot content for the coordinated election on Nov. 5. The mail ballot election is conducted by the Adams County Clerk and Recorder and the Weld County Clerk and Recorder.
The ballot content includes the recall question for Mayor Ken Kreutzer and the election of one candidate from each of the city's four wards. The council candidates include:
Ward 1
Ward 2
Ward 3
Ward 4
Candidate affidavit and committee registration forms may be found on the city's website at https://www.brightonco.gov/1394/2019-Election-Information.
Colorado voter registration forms can be obtained at the City Clerk's office or by visiting the Colorado State website. You must be 18 years of age, a United States citizen and a resident of Colorado for 22 days prior to the election. Registration forms must be submitted to the appropriate County Clerk office. The address and phone number for each county office are listed on the back of the registration form.
For Adams County elections information including a full list of Adams County ballot drop box and voting locations, visit AdamsVotes.com. For Weld County elections information including a full list of Weld County ballot drop box and voting locations, visit WeldGov.com

subset: commoncrawl


text:
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|Rainer Pruy <Rainer.P...@acrys.com>
|Re: Cocoon 2.2.x upgrade related help
|Thu, 17 Jan 2008 08:31:41 GMT
Just to add to the observation... Such error always happens when a reactor build hits a "war" project in maven. An effective workaround is (as was mentioned) to run the build in the "war" project directly (thus avoiding the reactor related problem). Sorry, I do not know any further background or whether there already is an issue filed with jira. ("Lack of time" is broadly available these days) Rainer Grzegorz Kossakowski schrieb: > Gautam Ganguly pisze: >> >> ------------------------------------------------------------------------ >> >> [ERROR] BUILD ERROR >> [INFO] >> ------------------------------------------------------------------------ >> [INFO] Internal error in the plugin manager executing goal >> 'org.apache.maven.plugins:maven-war-plugin:2.0.2:war ': Unable to >> find the mojo 'org.apache.maven.plugins:maven-war-plugin:2.0.2:war' >> in the plugin 'org.apache.maven.plugins:maven-war-plugin' >> Component descriptor cannot be found in the component repository: >> org.apache.maven.plugin.Mojoorg.apache.maven.plugins:maven-war-plugin:2.0.2:war. >> >> >> ...don't know what i am missing here??? > > > Argh, you are not the first one mentioning this error. It's quite interesting that I haven't managed > to reproduce it on different machines to date. Anyway, you got this error after executing following > commands: > cd myCocoonWebapp > mvn clean package > > It's crucial here that you execute this command in myCocoonWebapp directory. Report if you get the > same error, then. > --------------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com For additional commands, e-mail: email@example.com
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text:
Figure 4:
Immune-related genes: Alzheimer's disease susceptibility genes returned from very large genomewide association studies are in black, and those from the pre-GWAS era in grey. Binding interactions are indicated by linked diamonds and other effects by arrows. Borr:
Borrelia burgdorferi
; C. Pneu:
chlamydia pneumoniae
; Cytomeg:
; H. Pyl:
Helicobacter pylori
; P. Ging:
Porphyromonas gingivalis
; IgE: immunoglobulin E, Sialic: alpha2-3- or alpha2-6-linked sialic acids: the genes in the top right square were returned from GWAS prior to the very large studies. black star: Herpes simplex: see text for details.


text:
Private White V.C.
+ Woolmark Midnight-Blue Unstructured Storm System Tech Wool-Blend Blazer$795
Editors' Notes
Editors' NotesTreated with Loro Piana's Storm System® technology, Private White V.C.'s blazer is perfect for travelling, and also requires little to no maintenance. It's been tailored in the brand's workshop in Manchester, England, from a near weightless tech wool-blend and just lined through the sleeves for easy layering. There's a third button fastening at the peak of the right lapel, so you can convert it into a collar if you need a little extra coverage. Shown here with Club Monaco T-shirt, Folk trousers, Common Projects sneakers.
Size & Fit
Size & Fit
- Fits true to size. Take your normal size
- Regular cut blazer, tailored for a comfortable fit
- Lightweight, non-stretchy fabric
- Model wears a M
- Model measures: chest 38"/ 96cm, height 6'1"/ 185cm
Details & Care
Details & Care
- Midnight-blue Storm System® tech wool-blend
- Notch lapels, two front flap pockets, double vent, two internal zipped pockets, partially lined
- Three button fastening
- 60% wool, 40% polyamide; buttons: 100% horn (buffalo)
- Spot clean
- Made in England
Free Delivery & Returns
Free Delivery & Returns
Ground shipping anywhere in the US is free
Please try items in the comfort of your own home. If you don't like them, or they don't fit, we'll happily collect them from your home or office for free.


text:
- This event has passed.
The Austin Chronicle and Historic Scoot Inn Present: Scoot Dive Inn Theatre
June 24, 2015 @ 8:00 pm - 10:00 pm
Event Navigation
This summer, we are bringing back the popular Scoot Dive Inn Theatre EVERY WEDNESDAY presented by Historic Scoot Inn and Austin Chronicle!
Our June series features bar-related movies, our gift to all of our service industry pals 😉
Hot Mess food truck will be serving up some delicious eats, and as always, pets welcome!
6/3 – Coyote Ugly
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6/17 – Cocktail (1988 film)
6/24 – Road House
EDITOR'S NOTE: Listings on the Austin.com calendar contain user-submitted information. Make sure to double check the date, time, and location of your event!


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Admire the resort's grounds from your large private balcony or relax in one of the comfortable leather chairs in your sitting area. The large marble bathroom boasts dual vanities, a two-person shower, and an oversized soaking tub.
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Hi, I was wondering if anyone could help me with a problem. I purchased Web Easy 10 and have done quite a few web sites with it. However, if WE10 remains inactive for a few days, when I try to load the software, the Web Easy hosting activation message pops up. When I click to minimize that message then the software disappears. Gone! Then, I have to reload the software from the disc and put in the serial number. I have tried to contact support at Avanquest but no luck there. They just don't get back to me at all! Is there some way to keep the program from disappearing? Thanks for any help or suggestions.
No idea, I'm afraid. I don't think anyone here has experience with the software. But we get questions about odd behaviour now and then and the lack of support has also been mentioned before.
They do have a support system where you submit a ticket. But Web Easy isn't even listed in the dropdown with all their software...
this resolved my problem
Please try these instructions to fix the issue.
Please exit from WebEasy if it is open.
Please download and save the file WE910_OLR.zip to your computer as follows.
Please go to this page:
This will open a page at Google Drive, showing a file called WE910_OLR.zip, which it will also show contains a file called Fix_WE910_OLR.bat.
IGNORE ALL THAT and look in the upper right for the download icon (a down arrow). Click on that to download and save the WE910_OLR.zip file to your computer. (It is not necessary to sign into Google if you have no account there.)
Your browser (Chrome in particular) might block the download because it thinks it's malicious software.
This is because it contains a batch file that runs DOS commands.
We assure you that this file is only for this WebEasy issue and disturbs nothing else.
You might need to use a different browser to download and save the file.
Right-click that WE910_OLR.zip and chose "Extract All", then "Extract" on the window that appears.
A window should now open revealing a file called Fix_WE910_OLR.bat
Right-click Fix_WE910_OLR.bat, and choose "Run as administrator."
A small black window will come up. It will indicate that it's processed through several activation points. This is covering various versions of WebEasy.
It should finish in just a second or two and indicate that the script completed. There should not be any error messages, but you can ignore them (if any).
Press any key to close the black window.
Now go into WebEasy and verify that it comes up properly.
Thank you,
David B
VCOM Technical Support
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MTB News – interview with CEO Zumbi Cycles & Founder Zumbi Cycles Foundation – Kacper Krakowiak
(editor) The pretext of our meeting is a recent establishment of a Zumbi Cycles Foundation. What within the scope of foundation, Zumbi is planning to do? What does it mean to European enduro cycling or Enduro World Series Championships? Is the Foundation a summary of the 20th anniversary of Zumbi brand? or a completely new chapter in theirs history? I've asked all this and more a CEO of Zumbi Cycles, Founder of ZF – Kacper Krakowiak.
(kk) Actually, the Foundation will be operating in Poland, France, Spain, Great Britain, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Its main goal is to support equalizing chances of young Downhill and Enduro riders. We want to help with equipment and training. We are starting with two programs called: Grassroots and NeuroScience. The first of these offers an equipment – bicycles, frames and components, while the second focus on the work with the racers' psyche. It will also process and develop on a new field of so called "financial intelligence" in sport, especially in mountain biking. Riders will also be able to earn product bonuses as part of the recommendation of Zumbi products to the other riders.
In general Zumbi Foundation would like to promote bike-culture as all; starting from promoting big 29er wheels in downhill, finishing in nutrition and environment saving programs. As we also are a bunch of riders, we want to heat up that love to bikes among the others, showing them an entertainment coming from sport and how cool spots can they find just around the corner. At the moment the Foundation collaborate with Horizon Bikes (Poland) and Dirty2ride (UK) in order to implement its statutory assumptions.
(ed) Let's talk about Zumbi Cycles, a manufacturer of hand-build enduro bikes. You've started in 1999 and for almost 20 years are following the original ideas of the founders, operating with successes not only on European but Worldwide markets. What is Zumbi's secret?
(kk) I will not be modest if I say that it's our unique ability to combine innovations with timelessness.
(ed) Details please 😉
(kk) I wasn't common that days but from the beginning in 1999, Zumbi offered a custom geometry option; than we've introduced our original virtual pivot suspension called FPS in 2007; last but not least – Zumbi was probably the first company in the world which produced an electric downhill bicycle in 2008. And after the years bikes build by us are still winning the enduro or dh races. You can still order spare parts for even the oldest designs and I assure You that we are ready to renew every Zumbi frame You have, giving it a totally awesome new life.
(ed) So You are choosing the same way as Patagonia, or other brands, being a part of bigger committed business movement?
(kk) That's right – each of our full suspension frame is designed and built by man's hands in a factory in Poland. This in my opinion guarantees the attention to every detail, an extraordinary quality check and the feel that the bike or frame was built by living human paid fair, making an impact in local economics. Again, as I said – people standing behind Zumbi brand are looking forward into the future believing that time of stuff 'MADE IN TAIWAN' is no longer an attractive to nowadays' customers . They look for originality, they want to beinvolved in production process, they ask for emotions, a passion hidden in items.
(ed) And this is what distinguish Zumbi Cycles from other brands?
(kk) Customers are fed of the same designs, same components, same colors schemes, they want something different. And here the Zumbi finds its niche: with products whose fulfill this desire of uniqueness.
(ed) Can you please remind readers what the name Zumbi means?
(kk) Sure … (laughs) it comes from a legendary Brazilian warrior who became famous as an indestructible even after his death. Same as our mountain bikes: hardcore, solid, unbeatable.
(ed) What are your goals for the nearest future?
(kk) Going global – locally. Based on the wishes of customers, our partners, team members, Zumbi's employees and management. Real attractiveness, providing a technologically advanced product and genuine attention to our Riders. But above all, we are remain an authentic company with the personal commitment of the entire team, creating unique mountain bikes from riders to riders.
(ed) Any new models, premieres?
(kk) Plans are ambitious. In the first half of this year we will present a new downhill frame, a new geometry for enduro F11 bikes and a totally new hardtail construction. Design team would kill me for revealing this news, but what the heck – the electric versions of each of our well know bikes will go to production in the nearest future. But that's all I can say for now.
(ed) How will you celebrate the 20th anniversary?
(kk) We will start auctions of "vintage" Zumbi models. From now on, customers can send us their frames for restoration. As for custom finish the legendary early-green-scheme will be also available. Such constructions as T-20, 24, DH Team, Voodoo, Quolumbo and Guru are timeless, and that's what we want to prove during the auction. More details are soon going to be published on our website and social medial so feel welcome to start following!
(ed) When will this auction take place?
(kk) In April 2019. So that we can restore all the competition frames that will come to us. Applications should be sent to [email protected]
(ed) Thank you, I guess I should now start looking for my old downhill frameset …
(kk) Which model?
(ed) F44 Ti …
(kk) It's nice to hear. We can paint it pink, what d'Ya think? (laugh)
(ed) flowery, please


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Imparting strategic legal and business advice to the development and operation of your international mining enterprises.
Success in the mining business is largely dependent on strategic foresight and positioning your business to optimize its mineral discoveries. Simply finding a major deposit is no longer sufficient, given the costs associated with its extraction and delivery to market. Now, an equally important issue, over which you have far greater control, is positioning your business from a legal stand-point to optimize and leverage its discoveries to your financial advantage as your business moves forward in bringing business partners while moving from the exploration phase to the development of the mining project and operations.
Conversely, business parties and investors who are looking to participate in a mining project need to be fully apprised of their buy-in. Although the marketing pitch may appear quite lucrative, the reality can be considerably different - when the legal restrictions on the investment and the return on capital are carefully analyzed. With years of legal experience in securities law and investment analysis with a New York City / Wall Street law firm, the importance of a thorough legal / investment review of substantive mining investments cannot be understated.
Providing corporate-commercial legal advice and strategic direction to mining businesses and investors, from the exploration and development phases, into ongoing operations and beyond. For more information or to schedule an appointment, contact Chris Neufeld at firstname.lastname@example.com or 416-887-9702.
Law + Mining Main Mining Terminology Financing Terminology Disclaimer Privacy Policy Contact Mining Lawyer


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Eligible members must be full-time students and maintain a cumulative GPA of at least 3.5 during first term or year
Alpha Lambda Delta - First Year Honor Society at the University of Minnesota Crookston recently held its induction ceremony in the Prairie Room.
Eligibility for membership in Alpha Lambda Delta is based on a cumulative grade point average of 3.5 or better during the first term or year of college while a student is enrolled full-time.
Achieving this high level of academic performance is an accomplishment that less than 20 percent of college freshmen reach.
Advisors for the group are Assistant Professor Anthony Schroeder and Josh Parrill from the Academic Success Center.
This year's inductees included the following students:
Bailey Bradford, a junior majoring in English from Mentor, Minn.; Madison Brule, a freshman majoring in communication from Jordan, Minn.; Paige Cornale, a freshman majoring in biology from Oak Creek, Wis.; Bren Fox, a sophomore majoring in health sciences from Norwood Young America, Minn.; Mikayla Lacher, a sophomore majoring in equine science from Christine, N.D.; Allison Martinson, a sophomore majoring in exercise science and wellness from Grafton, N.D.; Kenenna Okeke, a freshman majoring in finance from St. Paul, Minn.; Haruna Sato, a freshman majoring in international business from Tokyo, Japan; Cindy Seo, a freshman from Seoul, Korea; Vinayak Sharma, a freshman majoring in software engineering from Ghaziabad, India; Heidi Wilhelm, a freshman majoring in biology from Detroit Lakes, Minn.; Katie Buttolph, a sophomore majoring in health sciences from Yankton, S.D.; Katie Crum, a sophomore double major in animal science and equine science from Scandia, Minn.; Katie Hoehne, a sophomore majoring in biology from Parker, Colo.; Anthony Kampa, a sophomore software engineering major form St. Cloud, Minn.; Aria Kapsner, a sophomore majoring in natural resources from Little Falls, Minn.; and Katie Orth, a freshman double majoring in animal science and equine science from Randall, Minnesota.


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Spend a day with our Robots! In this workshop participants will gain powerful knowledge in STEAM learning (Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts & Math). Participants can experiment with robots like Ozobots, Lego Mindstorms EV3, Finches and Ollies. These robots are machines that can do three things: sense, act and think. Robots are now accessible for students of all ages and abilities and are an engaging classroom tool to support STEAM. Participants will have the opportunity to develop ideas to engage students with robots that students can either build themselves or transform with maker materials.
The workshop will be presented by Michelle Wendt, Instructional Technologist at the SRI&ETTC.
Audience: All K-12 Educators
Workshop Code: F20018
Dates: Monday November 18, 2019
From: 9:00 to: 3:00
Cost: $106 OR 4 ETTC Hour(s). For info on membership, call the ETTC.
Instructor: Michelle Wendt
Location: SRI & ETTC - Library
Click here for workshop listings and registration
Visit our special projects page to learn more about grants and other classroom activities.
Online registration is the easy way to sign up for our classes. To find details, description and location for a particular workshop, click on the workshop name found through the search windows above.
Please be advised that by registering for an SRI&ETTC workshop you are liable for the workshop registration fee. If your school district does not pay the registration fee you will be billed by Stockton University. If you need to cancel your registration, please see the Cancellation Policy below.
If you have any questions regarding this matter, please contact the SRI&ETTC at 609-626-3850.
You can withdraw from a workshop at no cost, up until two weeks before the workshop date. Please notify us of your cancellation by mail, telephone or fax. Withdrawals within two weeks prior to workshop date will forfeit half of the registration fee. No-shows on the day of the workshop will forfeit the entire registration fee.
(workshops that are scheduled in within the next 45 days)
Understanding the Law on Special Needs Students, Equity and Disproportionality Presented by the SRI&ETTC and NJPSA, FEA, Legal One - Nov 13
Questioning: The Key to Student Engagement and Performance - Nov 15
Makerspace Monday with Programmable Robots - Nov 18
What Should the Next Generation of Science Teaching and Learning Look Like in the Classroom Im Observing? - Nov 19
Addressing Sexual Harassment in the #MeToo School Environment - Nov 20
MakerSpace Monday-December 2019 - Dec 2
Intervention and Referral Services (I&RS) Team Training - Dec 5
Human Resources Survival Guide Presented by the SRI&ETTC and NJPSA, FEA, Legal One - Dec 6
New I&RS Offerings Currently Being Scheduled for 2017-2018
Please Check Back


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Kwamena Ahwoi Has No Class At All!
By Kwame Okoampa-Ahoofe, Jr., Ph.D.
If I remember this man correctly, he was the first to extensively interview then-Flt.-Lt. Jerry John Rawlings in the wake of the successful mutiny by the so-called Armed Forces Revolutionary Council (AFRC) in June 1979; and then, again, after Mr. Rawlings' flagrantly undemocratic reemergence on December 31, 1982. In the latter instance, the democratically elected government of President Hilla Limann and his People's National Party (PNP) had been overthrown because of what Mr. Rawlings then self-righteously described as gross mismanagement of Ghana's economy. He would further describe the Limann administration as "the most disgraceful government in the history of Ghana."
Thirty years later, and with virtually all sectors of the country's economy literally at a standstill, Mr. Rawlings' rather uncharitable assessment of the Limann government seems to be more strikingly relevant to his own 19-year stranglehold on the Ghanaian political landscape. At least Dr. Limann was foresighted enough to starkly recognize, even in the chaotic and badly battered economic climate of 1979, that the future development of the country had to be inescapably predicated on capitalist and democratic liberalism. Mr. Rawlings would spend the first decade of his rule, actually his veritable dictatorship, naively dabbling in pseudo-socialism. Pseudo-socialism because during this period, decisively marked by the International Monetary Fund-minted Structural Adjustment Program (SAP), it was only Mr. Rawlings and his henchmen of thieving leeches who larded themselves on whatever was left of the fast-shrinking Ghanaian economy.
By 1990, with the massive collapse of State Capitalism, otherwise known as Socialism, in much of Eastern Europe, and China on the verge of negotiating the most successful capitalist transformation of its hitherto rigidly state-managed economy, Ghana's most benighted intellectual cynics and schoolyard bullies, otherwise known by the accolade of the "Rawlings Posse," having already run our beloved ship-of-state aground, tactically and opportunistically morphed themselves into some latter-day "Social Democrats." Obviously, the transitional vortex was too fast for these carpetbaggers and scalawags to take.
Now, having been forced by both circumstances over which they absolutely had no control, on the one hand, and the inexorable agitation of their more intellectually and ideologically enlightened political opponents, the Rawlings Posse would luridly and impudently claim to be the authors of Ghana's Fourth-Republican democratic culture. The far less palatable nature of reality on the ground was that Democratic Liberalism had been rammed down the throats of these shameless self-appointed purveyors of "transparency, probity and accountability."
Among the prime beneficiaries of Ghana's Robin-Hood Revolution, aside from Mr. Rawlings and his clansmen and women for whom this pseudo-revolution was specially orchestrated, were the "Ahwoi Brothers," a hard-nosed trio with lower-middle class background, a little knack for passable academic activity, prime beneficiaries of Acheampong's Suntreso Real-Estate Boom of the early 1970s, and impeccable opportunists of laudable genius.
Of the three, Ato, the eldest, is also known to be the most cantankerous and meanest; Kwamena, the most competitive and academic, has a Rhodes Scholarship in law from Oxford to prove it, although he is not particularly known to have remarkably distinguished himself in Ghanaian legal circles in the way, for instance, that one might speak of Nana Akufo-Addo, Mr. Tsatsu Tsikata and, in my own generation, Mr. Samuel Atta-Akyea. Then there is, of course, Mr. Kwesi Ahwoi, described largely as self-effacing and personable. As Minister of Agriculture under the Mills-Mahama government, Mr. Kwesi Ahwoi once confided to a friend of mine, who is also a good friend of our "Dining-Hall Prefect" (tongue-in-cheek, of course), about a year, or so, ago that he was literally grabbing at straws at his new post, and that he could do with just about any kind of managerial assistance that he could get. Now, that is my idea of a fairly honest man!
Personally, I have known about the Ahwois from a deliberately cultivated distance. In the wake of the 1982 charlatanic reemergence of Mr. Rawlings as the Arch-Apostle of Revolutionary Ghana, the trio used to frequent the bungalow of our next-door neighbor, Major Ari-Egeme, an heir to the Bantama Royal Stoolhouse of the traditional Mausoleum Keepers of His Royal Majesty, the Asantehene. I would not, at this juncture, want to get into the quiddities of how the stool curiously bypassed this quite smashingly handsome man with the strange Calabari name. He would, however, be summarily discharged from the Ghana Armed Forces, after he had reportedly carped the behavioral excesses of the self-appointed Prophets of Probity and Accountability in a promotion exam.
Back then, when I would watch them enter Major Ari's bungalow, the same three-bedroom house that had previously been occupied by the late Major (Dr.) Joe Darko, at the old Fourth-Battalion of Infantry Barracks (4BN), the three cavorters would be escorting young women, mostly in their late teens and barely out of their teens. Even back then, Ato was known to be the most ascetic among the trio.
Anyway, what I am driving at here is that when he snorts and snarls about feeling like "pissing" whenever he hears the name of the main opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) mentioned, Mr. Kwamena Ahwoi may be quite normal, even rational, almost, in his palpable discomfort. For, hasn't it been said time without number, that: "At the mere mention of death, old bones begin to jitter"?
*Kwame Okoampa-Ahoofe, Jr., Ph.D., is Associate Professor of English, Journalism and Creative Writing at Nassau Community College of the State University of New York, Garden City. He is Director of The Sintim-Aboagye Center for Politics and Culture and author of 22 books, including "Dr. J. B. Danquah: Architect of Modern Ghana" (iUniverse.com, 2005). E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com.


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#15 Hot Hand Fallacy: Why we love seeing hot streaks
You've just made your last three shots, won your last three hands or closed your last three deals. What do you think will happen next? In this episode, Mel and Dan explore the fallacy - and reality - of 'catching fire' in games, business and life.
Mel: 00:14 Hi, and welcome to Bad Decisions.
Dan: 00:21 The podcast that helps us understand why we choose what we choose.
Mel: 00:24 Why we think what we think.
Dan: 00:25 And how to exploit this stuff for fun and commercial gain.
Mel: 00:27 I'm Dr. Mel Weinberg, I'm a performance psychologist.
Dan: 00:30 And I'm Dan Monheit, co-founder of Hardhat, a creative agency built for today.
Mel: 00:34 You did it.
Dan: 00:34 I did it, now you do it Kops. [music playing]
Mel: 00:41 So Dan Monheit for this episode, I want to welcome you to Mel's Casino!
Dan: 00:44 Hey hey, it's great to be here.
Mel: 00:47 So here's the situation alright, we're flipping coins.
Dan: 00:50 This is a decidedly low-budget casino.
Mel: 00:53 This is a coin toss game, and I have just flipped the coin three times, and it has resulted in three heads. Your job, for a million dollars is to tell me whether you think that the next coin will be a head or a tail.
Dan: 01:10 So we've had heads, heads, heads?
Mel: 01:11 Yup.
Dan: 01:12 Due for a tail, I'm going with tails.
Mel: 01:13 You think you're due for a tails.
Dan: 01:14 Due for a tails.
Mel: 01:15 Willing to bet your life savings on it.
Dan: 01:19 I thought I was betting a million dollars that wasn't mine.
Mel: 01:22 Well we can go either.
Dan: 01:22 Either way.
Mel: 01:22 So you ready-
Dan: 01:26 Let's keep the show moving. I'm going with tails.
Mel: 01:26 Heads, heads, heads, tails. Alright. Okay so now I wanna switch things up a little-bit, and I want you to go in your crazy imagination, to the NBA playoffs.
Dan: 01:36 Okay, I'm there.
Mel: 01:37 You are, Dan Monheit. You are a fifty percent shooter from the field.
Dan: 01:42 Wait, I'm playing in the playoffs?
Mel: 01:43 Yeah.
Dan: 01:44 Oh, this is good. Okay yes.
Mel: 01:45 This is easy for you to imagine?
Dan: 01:46 Oh yeah.
Mel: 01:46 You're right there.
Dan: 01:47 Yes.
Mel: 01:47 Okay. You're a fifty percent shooter from the field.
Dan: 01:50 Yes.
Mel: 01:50 You've just hit your last three shots.
Dan: 01:50 That's good. Yes.
Mel: 01:52 Yes, it's NBA playoffs.
Dan: 01:52 So normally when I think about playing basketball I'm on the bench, but this is good. I'm in the game. I'm hitting shots, I've hit three in a row.
Mel: 02:02 Very realistic.
Dan: 02:03 Okay, so I've hit three in a row, feeling good.
Mel: 02:05 Alright, Coach Mel calls a timeout. Gonna draw up a play. We need a shot to win. You've just hit your last three. Should I put the ball in your hands?
Dan: 02:14 Gimme the ball, "get out of the way."
Mel: 02:17 Dan Monheit for the buzzer beater to win?
Dan: 02:17 Absolutely.
Mel: 02:18 You will back yourself every time?
Dan: 02:20 Oh I've just hit three in a row.
Mel: 02:21 Yeah, but you see, when we just flipped three heads in a row, you were pretty convinced that the fourth one was gonna be a tails.
Dan: 02:28 Because we're due for tails.
Mel: 02:29 We're due for tails, and this time?
Dan: 02:30 Yeah, well it's different.
Mel: 02:32 Okay, I can tell, why?
Dan: 02:33 I'm not a coin.
Mel: 02:34 Right, who are you?
Dan: 02:35 I've hit three in a row.
Mel: 02:35 You're super star bench player Dan Monheit right here.
Dan: 02:39 I'm no longer bench player.
Mel: 02:40 Sorry.
Dan: 02:41 Yes, this is my coming out party.
Mel: 02:42 So, what we're talking about here, what we're talking about today, what we've tried to just illustrate, is the idea of the Hot Hand Fallacy.
Dan: 02:50 This is not a fallacy. I actually had a hot hand. I hit three in a row, and I'm gonna hit the fourth.
Mel: 02:55 Remember this was your imagination, let's come back, let's bring it back into the podcast.
Dan: 02:58 Alright.
Mel: 02:59 The Hot Hand Fallacy, is the belief that we're going to be more successful in future attempts, if we've been successful in past attempts.
Dan: 03:06 I think NBA Jam has a lot to answer for, in this fallacy.
Mel: 03:10 Queue the audio.
Dan: 03:12 "He's on fire. Razzle-Dazzle. It's good!"
NBA Jam Audio: 03:12 Boom-Shaka-Lacka! Kaboom!
Dan: 03:18 So I tell you what Dr. Mel. I mean, I'm not a doctor but I don't know, I have some thoughts about this.
Mel: 03:23 Yeah, you're allowed.
Dan: 03:24 I'm allowed to have thoughts? With the fact that it's a fallacy, I totally get it for your first example, when we're tossing coins, or doing other completely random games, so maybe roulette or, something else like that. Where anybody that's done, you know, in maths, understands each event is completely independent and has nothing to do with the previous event and we kinda construct this story that, we're on fire. And I think, actually, casinos kinda know this and tap into it where at a roulette wheel they'll actually put up, what the last twenty spins or the last forty spins have been, to sort of help people construct a story.
Mel: 03:57 Yeah, that's not to actually give you information. It's actually to mess with your mind.
Dan: 03:59 Yeah, got it. So, you know that's a thing that we do, but, isn't sport different? In sport it's not completely random like if I have just hit three shots in a row, there's probably some things working in my favour. So like, my confidence is probably feeling better, my teammates might be looking for me, and maybe something's working against me as well. Like maybe the defence, trying to close out.
Mel: 04:19 100%.
Dan: 04:20 Or maybe taking stupid shots, cause, my confidence is up?
Mel: 04:22 Yeah well, your shot difficulty changes right?
Dan: 04:25 Yeah.
Mel: 04:25 With each one. What you're saying is that there's two different scenarios here. Right? One when we're talking about casino type stuff, mostly down to chance. Right? So the odds are fifty-fifty in those scenarios no matter what. Whereas, in the heat of a game, yeah there's so many other things that could influence whether or not you're going to make the shot.
Dan: 04:41 Exactly so with the casino stuff I'm sure there was research, but we don't really need research to know if that's a thing. We know it's completely random and we all know that we make up stories to tell ourselves that it's not cause we're all special snowflakes and we need to construct a narrative where the world makes sense around us.
Mel: 04:54 Well see that last bit, I'm not sure about being special snowflakes but we certainly do need to construct narratives how the world operate. Because we need to have meaning in our world it gives us a feeling of familiarity, predictability, it would be really uncomfortable for us to live in a world where we had no idea what was gonna happen next. So we tend to make patterns out of random things.
Dan: 05:13 Yeah, like how people see Jesus on toasted cheese sandwiches.
Mel: 05:16 Yeah.
Dan: 05:17 Yeah.
Mel: 05:18 We see faces. We see them in the clouds.
Dan: 05:20 Yes, and we're wired to do that, you know, even as a baby one of the first things you get to do is recognise what a face looks like, so, it makes sense we see patterns and repeated things everywhere we look.
Mel: 05:30 So, next time you see Jesus in the back of a tree, you're completely normal.
Dan: 05:34 Exactly, but with sport I guess it's, it's kinda different. Right? Like is there a fallacy or really is there a hot hand?
Mel: 05:41 Well so now we're going to enter ourselves into an argument that has been going for, about the last 35 years. Alright it started with a piece of research in 1985 by Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky
Dan: 05:57 Did you say Tversky?
Mel: 05:59 Yeah.
Dan: 05:59 Because if there is a hot hand in research, this guy has it. He's basically on a Bad Decisions hot streak. He's been mentioned in every single episode.
Mel: 06:06 But here's the thing. When you get to be as good as Tversky was, you get to do really cool things with your research.
Dan: 06:11 Such as?
Mel: 06:12 Well, they spent their time, this is so totally different to my experience in Academia. Well it's a little-bit, cause I did watch a lot of basketball when I was in Academia, but they basically just got to look at and analyse the statistics of basketball games. So in 1985 they were looking at the shooting records of the Philadelphia 76ers.
Dan: 06:30 Jordan's rookie season.
Mel: 06:31 And what they were trying to do was look at whether shooters were more likely to make a shot, depending on the result of their previous shot.
Dan: 06:39 So they were trying to determine, if I just made a shot, am I more likely or less likely than average, to hit the following shot.
Mel: 06:45 Yep, and here's the thing, when they asked both the players, and the fans watching the game, if they were more likely to make the next shot after just hitting, the previous one, everybody was like, "Yeah, definitely more likely to."
Dan: 06:54 Yeah.
Mel: 06:55 Actually what the research found, was that there was no evidence for the influence or the suggested idea of a hot hand. The hot hand was a fallacy, and the hot hand didn't actually exist.
Dan: 07:09 Well that's upsetting.
Mel: 07:09 Isn't it?
Dan: 07:09 That's like, really upsetting.
Mel: 07:10 Sorry imaginary Dan in the NBA playoffs, apparently you are not a thing.
Dan: 07:14 I bet also, just like as a guy watching sport, you kinda like to think that this is happening right?
Mel: 07:19 Well yeah, it makes it entertaining, it makes it fun of course. The crowd goes nuts when somebody's hit three in a row.
Dan: 07:23 Exactly. So it may lead to the question I mean, you said this is a contentious issue, we've got a paper in 1985 that says no, his is absolutely not a thing ... surely it can't end there?
Mel: 07:32 Well so then there was a whole-bunch of other studies that came out to replicate it, right? And then all of a sudden you got all these coaches going, "Na uh," and elite sports people going, "Na uh. I don't believe this. I don't care what your statistics show. I know that if I'm feeling hot, God damn it I am feeling hot!" Right? Now for 30 years this research stood, right? There was no such thing as a hot hand, in basketball or in sport.
Dan: 07:55 Well maybe not according to academics and statisticians.
Mel: 07:57 Right. According to everybody else and so a couple of researchers came out and they're like, "Not uh, this has got to be a thing and, we are gonna show you that it is a thing."
Dan: 08:04 "We're gonna keep researching this until we get it right."
Mel: 08:07 "And, we are going to keep watching basketball games and calling it research for as long as we possibly can."
Dan: 08:10 I see where you're going here.
Mel: 08:13 And so, in 2014 some researchers from Harvard, came out with a study.
Dan: 08:18 Well they're smart. They're smart right?
Mel: 08:18 Right, I mean they're from Harvard right? They came out with a study where they looked at 83,000 shots in the NBA.
Dan: 08:22 Tough gig.
Mel: 08:23 Yup, and they incorporated all these factors that weren't included in the earlier studies. So they were looking at factors that contribute to shot difficulty, like the things we were talking about like is another defender there, how far are you from the ring, etc. etc. What point in time is it in the game? And what they found was that there was, actually some evidence for the idea of a hot hand.
Dan: 08:41 Hey, see?
Mel: 08:43 If you look long enough. You'll find something.
Dan: 08:44 Exactly, you will find it's in the data somewhere.
Mel: 08:47 So, currently, apparently, as it stands, the hot hand is not a fallacy. The hot hand is actually an effect.
Dan: 08:53 Right like what are we talking here. How much more likely am I to hit my 4th shot if I just hit the last 3.
Mel: 08:58 So here's the thing the effect sizes were marginal. I'm talking like an extra 1 or 2 percent. But look, if you think about in the contents of sport, like I always say in sports sometimes it's the smallest differences that have the biggest impact.
Dan: 09:12 I guess thinking back about what we were saying earlier about our desire to want to create stories around this stuff. Maybe the reality is you only have 1 or 2 percent difference in likelihood of hitting a shot but when you add on to that bit of extra swagger from the player, the crowd going off and cheering the person's name because they just hit 3 in a row, the commentator starting to talk up that they have seen not seen a shooting streak like this at this count since December 1987 and this is one of the greatest performances likely to see. All sudden the story fits, even if the reality is questionable.
Mel: 09:44 Right the perception is way more fun.
Dan: 09:46 Yeah, and we want it right? We want the story. It's a much enjoyable experience to watch a game where there is actually momentum and hot streaks. Then when it's just a bunch of random shot attempts.
Mel: 09:57 Right, so let's break this down in to a couple of reasons why we might fall for this. Okay, why we might think the Hot Hand Fallacy is a thing? In addition to it just being more fun to believe in. I will give you a couple other reasons why we tend to think this way. The first is the fundamental attribution era. Which is the idea when good things happen we attribute them to internal characteristics of ourselves. Right? So, when you've just hit 3 shots in a row you're thinking, "I'm hot, I'm on fire." The flip side of that when bad things happen we don't think that has anything to do with us. Right we'll put things down like chance or bad luck.
Dan: 10:30 Exactly and so if we think about that example. Like in the casino where, you know if we are losing, oh you know, oh we get 3 heads in a row we think. We think we're due for tales..
Mel: 10:39 Yeahs, it's not because there's something wrong with us. It was bad luck.
Dan: 10:42 Exactly.
Mel: 10:43 We are due for a win.
Dan: 10:44 Due for a win. Totally.
Mel: 10:44 We're a good person. Good people deserve wins in life.
Dan: 10:47 Exactly, whereas if I just won 3 hands in a row. I'm probably due for a 4th.
Mel: 10:51 Of course. Because it was you.
Dan: 10:52 It was a skill. It was all skill.
Mel: 10:54 So, the next thing that comes in to place the idea of the law of small numbers. Basically, it's the idea when we know that something exist in the population. We assume it's gonna also apply in the small tiny little sub section of the populations. When we have small numbers. So, for example if we flip a coin 100 times we expect that we get 50 heads and 50 tails. Right? The law of small numbers said if I would of flip a coin 4 times. You would of expect to get what.
Dan: 11:22 2 heads and 2 tails.
Mel: 11:23 2 heads and 2 tails. Right, there's just the same likelihood that we would have 4 heads in a row as if we would have head, head, tails, tails. That sequence "head head head head" is exactly the same likelihood happening as "head head tails tails" in a small sample.
Dan: 11:44 Right. So what you're saying about this law of small numbers, we failed to see the sample is merely part of a much much bigger experience. Much bigger population and we think that's the whole universe.
Mel: 11:50 Correct. If you go back to your hot streak in basketball. Right, you've just hit 3 out of 3 of your previous shots right, even though I know that you missed the last 20 before that and you're not really a great shooter. I'm looking at the little streak and I'm only looking at that and I'm neglecting all the information prior to that. I'm neglecting your overall shooting percentage which really, let's be honest isn't that great.
Dan: 12:12 High 40's probably.
Mel: 12:13 And I'm just looking at the small numbers. That little small instance that I've got there making my judgement based on that.
Dan: 12:19 So you're not assessing my skill as a shooter over my lifetime. You're saying in the last 3 minutes this guy is a 100 percent shooter.
Mel: 12:27 Yep. Whenever we restrict the available range of data, we are going to make errors in estimation.
Dan: 12:32 Sure
Mel: 12:33 The last thing that comes into play is something that we have spoken about in previous podcast episode, which is the idea of availability basis. Which is if I want to think the likelihood of the next thing happening is, my brain is going to search for the most recent available information and "oh you hit your last 3 shots? Well of course you're going to make your next one."
Dan: 12:48 Yeah and probably made shots more memorable than missed shots unless I missed a really critical shot or missed a layup or something like that. Chances are made shot that are memorable than missed shots. So that playing into that as well. So I guess we have all those things working in our favour or against our favour. It does seem pretty clear that we are excellent constructing stories where we want to. Maybe it's further evidence of that.
It seems funny that we only make the stories where we want them to. So we talk about hot streaks for shooting but we don't talk about hot streaks for other statistics like nobody gets on a steal hot streak or a block hot streak or a successful inbound pass hot streak.
Mel: 13:24 And look that is one of the key criticisms of this sort of research when it comes to sport, that we only look at sort of one metric, one indicator of success and we make all of that judgements about future success based on that. Where as you say there's a whole-lot of other things that could come into play that we just don't pay attention to.
Dan: 13:38 So the question for you Doctor Mel. The Hot Hand Fallacy is it a thing or is it not a thing?
Mel: 13:44 Look I think as long as we believe it's a thing. It's a thing.
Dan: 13:48 Right.
Mel: 13:48 Which is the point of the whole thing.
Dan: 13:50 So, Doctor Mel, the truth fairy. It is a thing or is it not a thing.
Mel: 13:52 Do you believe it's a thing?
Dan: 13:54 Well.
Mel: 13:54 If you think it, it is real.
Dan: 13:56 Okay, so the Hot Hand Fallacy is not a fallacy. The hot hand attribute is an attribute.
Mel: 14:01 According to the latest research there are some evidence for a hot hand effect.
Dan: 14:05 Alright, well I think we should go with that and I mean at the core of it, it's because people like stories and a few consecutive shots made or few consecutive hands won at a poker table, or roulette wheel give us all the ingredients we need to construct a story about how wonderfully awesome we are.
Mel: 14:19 They also make good for Hollywood blockbuster movies. Right?
Dan: 14:22 This is true.
Mel: 14:22 About sports.
Dan: 14:23 Nobody's going to see a movie about a series of random shots that may or may not go in.
Mel: 14:28 So how do we take this and how do we apply this understanding of a Hot Hand Fallacy whether it exists or not. What does it mean in brand world?
Dan: 14:35 So if we look at that underlining ingredients for the Hot Hand Fallacy it's people's desire to create a story and a story about somebody winning. And so, brands it makes sense to do whatever we can to look like we're on a hot streak. Right. I guess often times with brands, and with agencies and other types of organisations we will look for big news and big wins to talk about our momentum moving forwards. But, probably a great lesson out of these is we should be looking for any sorts of wins we can talk about. Whatever that is individual performance reviews, or PR marketing we do out to the audience. The more made shots we can get out there the more we're contributing to the stories people are creating in their heads about our organisation or us as an individual being on a hot streak.
Mel: 15:20 Yeah, you're just trying to set the tone. Write the narrative.
Dan: 15:23 Exactly. So talking about this there are a couple of industries that come to mind straight away. Alright, maybe the umbrella over all of these is the awards industry, and how many awards are there that are set up just to give people good news to get themselves on hot streaks. So, I have not done the research maybe you would want to do the research but it would seem that there are more awards for cars available than there are cars, available in Australia. It seems that every car has won car of the year award for something. They've usually won it at least 4 or 5 times in a row. Total hot streak get on board with that.
I think superannuation is another one where you know, all of these different funds have been voted or recognised as a top something fund for the last x number of years and of course past performance is the best indicator for future performances, the fund is on a hot streak, make sure you get involved with that.
Mel: 16:10 See it's funny that, right? Where past performance is the best indicator for future performance. It totally depends.
Dan: 16:15 Yeah who knows but I mean, actually it doesn't really matter because we like to believe that it is, and if you look at the ads, not picking on superannuation here but you will have the first 28 seconds of the ad talking about how amazing how their past performance been, and the last 2 seconds of the ad saying "past performance is not the best indicator for future performance" basically this whole ad was bullshit.
I should just say the ad is not bullshit. It's just the conclusions that we know people will draw from that are probably bullshit. The ads are true. Don't sue me.
Mel: 16:43 Alright so to bring it back and to really sum what we have been talking about. In circumstances where we don't have a whole lot of information or complete uncertainty. We have to understand our brain is going to look for patterns.
Dan: 16:55 For hot streaks.
Mel: 16:56 We're going to look for hot streaks. We're going to look for any information that can make us feel like we're in control of whatever is going to happen next but at the end of the day it's a story that our mind just made up.
Dan: 17:05 Right and clearly for completely random events, it's 100 percent a story and for not completely randomly events, maybe sport, investment, buying and selling shares. It's like 98 percent a story. And 1-2 percent real.
Mel: 17:20 It's pretty much a story, our brain is making up stories.
Dan: 17:24 Alright it's all bullshit. It's a good way to end.
Dan: 17:26 No, actually you know what's a better way to end?
Mel: 17:28 What?
Dan: 17:29 How do people find you on the internet?
Mel: 17:30 Well they will either Google Melissa Weinberg or they can find me @DrMelW.
Dan: 17:36 Cool and if you finish talking to Mel and you would like to talk to me you can find me at @Danmonheit
Mel: 17:42 @Danmonheit #NBASuperstar.
Dan: 17:45 Yes. I think that is it for today. What are we going to talk about next time Mel? Are we going to keep the hot streak going?
Mel: 17:49 We are going to have to keep the hot streak going.
Dan: 17:51 Yeah I reckon we definitely talk about another bad decision making heuristic.
Mel: 17:54 It's a good chance. It's a good chance that will happen.
Dan: 17:57 Good chance. Seen you then.


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Event Type: Childrens Programs
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Pond In Spring
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Endgame, Finally – Mike Taibbi (NBC News correspondent 2005)
Endgame, Finally By Mike Taibbi Correspondent NBC News updated 5/31/2005 2:08:46 PM ET COMMENTARY SANTA MARIA, Calif. — A silver-haired attorney stood and said "The defense rests," not calling any of the rebuttal witnesses he'd been expected to call, and … Continue reading
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Dutch premiere of Ubiquity in EYE
On Sunday, June 3, the Dutch premiere of Ubiquity took place in EYE. Director Bregtje van der Haak and one of the main characters from the film, Anouk, were present for the festive evening. The evening was introduced by philosopher and journalist Hans Schnitzler (Kleine Filosofie van de Digitale Onthouding, Het Digitale Proletariaat), who presented a column.