text:
Google Summer of Code 2009 Prposal
Charith Dhanushka Wickramarachchi
Student Major
Computer Science and Engineering
Student Degree
Bachelor of Science (Engineering)
University of Moratuwa
Assigned Mentor
Amila Chinthaka Suriarachchi
Project title
SMS Transport for Apache Axis2
Apache Axis2 is an opensource framework for webservices which is widely used today ,and its implementation is available in both java and c. Axis2 is independent of the underlying transports which takes the Messages to it.Axis2 Engine is concentrating on the SOAP processing. Users can select transports to suite their requirement and that transports are responsible for injecting Axis2Messages to the Axis2Engine.So Axis2 Engine is dealing only with this Axis2MessageContex build from the underlying transport framework.
SMS Transport for Apache Axis2 is a project focusing on implementing a SMPP support for Axis2java (And also it will able be used in Apache Synapse too Since Synapse uses the same axis2Transports ) by which Axis2 will be able to communicate with SMSCs (Short message service centers) or Any other Message centers that support SMPP . And also in this project it will make enable axis2 to communicate with Simple GSM modems.
Using that users will be able to invoke web services using Short messages and also will be able to receive alters , Notifications that are generated from a Service as Short Messages. This project will also be value to the Apache Synapse project with its Alerting and Eventing capabilities.
Detailed Description
Apache Axis2 currently supports some transports like HTTP/HTTPS ,JMS,TCP,XMPP. SMS Transport for axis2 will Enable users to invoke webservices using a SMS and also to receive SMS which are generated using a Axis2 Service. This project will give support to SMPP protocol and also it will give support to send receive messages from GSM modems.
The Short Message Peer to Peer (SMPP) protocol is an open, industry standard protocol designed to provide a flexible data communications interface for transfer of short message data between a Message Center, such as a Short Message Service Center (SMSC), GSM Unstructured Supplementary Services Data (USSD) Server or other type of Message Center and a SMS application system, such as a WAP Proxy Server, EMail Gateway or other Messaging Gateway. So by having SMPP transport support axis2 will be able to communicate with those Message Centers to send/receive Short Messages.
- This project will mainly have following key features
- SMPP v3.4 support for the Transport receiver
- Receive SMS using attached GSM modems
- SMPP v 3.4 support for the Transport Sender
- Send SMS using attached GSM modems
Extensible to use other proprietary protocols so that users will able customize this to be used propitiatory protocols reusing the code. (Since there are many proprietary protocols that are currently being used by Message Centers to communicate with SMS application systems)
Since SMPP is a protocol that support to exchange short message details between the Message centers and and SMS applications giving support for that protocol will be useful in many practical situations where a lot of SMS data traffic is involved. And also I'll give capability to handle (send /receive) messages that are coming from GSM modems attached. This feature can be used in scenarios where the data traffic low .(Since when using a typical GSM modem the maximum message transfer rate is around 6 messages per minute)
- SMS transport for Axis2.
- Appropriate documentation to ensure the continuation and the improvement of the project in the future
- Test cases to make sure the desired functionality of different parts of the project and integration test for the SMPP support part.
- Sample guide to use this Transport with Axis2
Additional Information
Project Plan
The major design challenges as i see in this project are handling the payload size,Come up with a message format/formats and how to do SMS <--> Axis2MessageContext mapping. To come up with a good design i have to look at: possible real world use cases of this transport , The similar projects going on and the standards they are using (Eg: Apache ServiceMix is having a SMPP component). And It will be useful to discuss with the Axis2/Synapse dev list to find out the use cases and the limitations.
So in the initial stages I'm planing to talk with Axis2 and Synapse developers and come up with a design to implement the most required features for this transport. In this discussions i would like to discuss about the design constrains that we are going to enforce considering use cases. And also i am planing to discuss about the technologies that can be used to implement this (ex : SMPPAPI , jsmpp can be used to implement SMPP support)
At the start of the implementation phase I'll prepair a requirements and Specification document which will help me to track the progress while i m developing. And I'll be implementing the features according to design came up in the first phase while getting more feedback and ideas from the community. I'll be providing working features of the project as patches so that they can be reviewed regularly and will be able to committed to the axis2 transport project if needed.
In the final phase I'll fix the bugs that may encounter and write a sample guide to use this Transport by providing some samples. And also I'll write an integration test for the SMPP which will test all supported features of SMPP.
Following is a link to a Diagram that illustrates a Architectural Overview of the project
I will be able to use a EPR like sms://<senders_number> in Message sending back scenarios.
Project Schedule
April 20 to May 18
Google have announced the first time period as the community bonding period.I m planing to use this to interact with the mentor and the other developers in the community to get much more familiar with the axis2 transport framework and get the feed back from the developer community regarding the technologies that can be used and how to address the design challenges
And also I'll be getting familiar with the related technologies like jsmpp ,SMSlib ,SMPP Api ,SMSCSim etc which will help me to quickly get into the project implementation.
May 19 to May 23
Come up with a Design and a requirements and Specification document after discussing reviewing with a Mentor and the developer community of Axis2 and Synapse.
May 24 to July 6
Implementing the SMPP support for the SMS transport and provide a patch to review.
This will be the longest phase of the project since in this phase i'll be implementing the most of the Message Building layers and protocol handling layers. And also in this period I'll be reviewing the design and the way I'm currently implementing the project with the mentor and the developers in the community
July 7 to July 31
Implementing a Sender and Receiver capability using GSM modem.And testing It with few famous mobile devices.
After giving the SMPP support giving message sending and Receiving capability it will be less time consuming since Message Builderss written in previous phase will be able to reused in this phase.
And also in this period I'll be start fixing bugs that will be reported and identified from the previous patch I provided.
August 1 to August 10
Writing an integration test for the SMPP transport support.
August 10 to August 17
Prepair samples and Sample guide for the Project and prepair the final patch to the axis2 transport project which will include documentation, Samples and Sample guide and the code with test cases.
I am a Third year Undergraduate at Department of Computer Science and Engineering , University of Moratuwa Srilanka .I have been working with web services related technologies for more than six months .I have worked with Apache Synapse project and Axis2 Project.I have done some contribution to Apache synapse the project as well.And Also I have worked with Axis2 jaxws module and i have a implementation level understanding of the Axis2 JAXWS module.
I have a good knowledge and experience in working with technologies like Apache Maven , Spring , JAX-WS , JAXB , AXIOM and JAVA JMX. Since I have been working with Apache projects for some time i'm have a good understanding of the Apache process as well. I have done a project "ESB for Spring Users (Spring DSL for Synapse)" for WSO2 which will enable Spring users to Configure Synapse in Spring.It will be released after the Synapse 1.3 release.
I'm interested in Open Source software development and Specially in web services area.And I'm willing to contribute to Apache Synapse and Axis2 in the future.And I m sure with my past experience in web services area I'll be able to finish this project successfully and contribute it to the Axis2 Transport project.
=== References ===
Department of Computer Science and Engineering University of Moratuwa
SMS Forum http://www DOT smsforum DOTnet/
SMSLlib http://smslib dot org/


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The Second International Symposium of Fatigue of Materials: Advances and Emergences in Understanding is a five–session symposium held in conjunction with the Materials Science and Technology Conference 2012 (MS&T 2012) at Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, during October 7–11, 2012. The abstracts that were submitted for presentation at this symposium cover a diverse range of topics. We have made an attempt to group these papers into sessions that focus on closely–related topics. However, as can be expected, many of the papers could fit into more than one session. In the ensuing discussion, we provide a cohesive, complete and compelling overview of the symposium as well as a summary of the abstracts that were submitted.
Session 1(Overview 1) and Session 2 (Overview II) contain papers that
(i) Review the current state of knowledge both related and relevant to the subject of fatigue behavior of materials, and
(ii) New, innovative, and emerging techniques for experimental evaluation of the fatigue behavior.
In concurrence the papers attempt to analyze the data for aspects relevant to design and simultaneously predicting the useful life of components and structures. Session 3 (Aerospace Materials I) and Session 4 (Aerospace Materials II) focus on advanced materials that are used in performance–critical applications in the aerospace and automotive industries, such as the alloys of titanium, nickel, aluminum, and magnesium. Session 5 is a collection of papers relating to other materials of engineering interest, such as iron and steel, polymer, rubber, and even composites. In the summary presented below, the session number and paper number are identified by S and P.
Topics related to the influence of both processing and the environment are covered in papers presented in all the sessions of this symposium, and are briefly summarized here as a group with additional discussion included in the individual sessions.
Preface ix
Symposium Organizers xi
Session Chairs xv
Symposium on the Fatigue of Materials II: Advances and Emergences in Understanding
Overview I
Fundamentals of Fatigue Crack Initiation and Propagation: Some Thoughts 3
C. Pande
In–situ Three Dimensional (3D) X–Ray Synchrotron Tomography of Corrosion Fatigue in A17075 Alloy 17
J. Williams, X. Xiao, F. De Carlo, N. Chawla, andS. Singh
Variable Amplitude Fatigue 27
N. Ranganathan, D. Joly, and R. Leroy
High Frequency Vibration Based Fatigue Testing of Developmental Alloys 39
C. Holycross, R. Srinivasan, T. George, S. Tamirisakandala, andS. Russ
Overview II
Dwell Fatigue Design Criteria 49
T. Goswami
Probabalistic Risk Assessment of a Turbine Disk 71
T. Goswami, J. Carter, M. Thomas, and T. Fecke
Simulating Fatigue Cracks in Healthy Beam Models for Improved Identification 87
P. Cooley, J. Slater, and O. Shiryayev
Advanced Materials I
Stress–Corrosion Cracking and Fatigue Crack Growth Behavior of Ti–6A1–4V Plates Consolidated from Low Cost Powders 105
M. Imam, P. Pao, and R. Bayles
Advanced Materials II
The High Cycle Fatigue, Damage Initiation, Damage Propagation and Growth and Final Fracture Behavior of the Aluminum Alloy 2024 119
T. Srivatsan, S. Vasudevan, andK. Manigandan
Fractographic Observations on the Mechanism of Fatigue Crack Growth in Aluminium Alloys 139
R. Alderliesten, J. Schijve, and M. Krkoska
Fatigue Predictions of Various Joints of Magnesium Alloys 153
H. Kang, K. Kari, A. Getti, A. Khosrovaneh, X. Su, L. Zhang, and Y. Lee
Fatigue Behavior of AM60B Subjected to Variable Amplitude Loading 169
H. Kang, K. Kari, A. Khosrovaneh, R. Nayaki, X. Su, L. Zhang, and Y. Lee
Other Materials
Rubber Fatigue – The Intrinsic Intricacies 181
N. Ranganathan, F. Lacroix, S. Meo, J. Poisson, and G. Berton
Mechanistic Approach towards Fatigue Initiation and Damage Propagation in Fibre Metal Laminates & Hybrid Materials 193
R. Alderliesten
Influence of Austenite Stability on Steel Low Cycle Fatigue Response 201
G. Lehnhoff, and K. Findley
The High Cycle Fatigue and Final Fracture Behavior of Alloy Steel 9310 for Use in Performance–Sensitive Applications 211
T. Srivatsan, K. Manigandan, T. Quick, and A. Freborg
Ultrasonic Corrosion Fatigue Behavior of High Strength Austenitic Stainless Steels 233
R. Ebara, Y. Yamaguchi, D. Kanei, and Y. Yamamoto
Influence of Microstructural Features on the Propagation of Microstructurally Short Fatigue Cracks in Structural Steels 243
M. Sharaf, J. Lian, N. Vajragupta, S. Münstermann, W. Bleck, B. Schmaling, A. Ma, and A. Hartmaier
Author Index 251
Subject Index 253
T. S. Srivatsan is the Professor of Materials Science and Engineering in the Department of Mechanical Engineering at The University of Akron. He received his graduate degrees [Master of Science in Aerospace Engineering (M.S. 1981) and Doctor of Philosophy in Mechanical Engineering (Ph.D. 1984)] from Georgia Institute of Technology.
M. Ashraf Imam is a Research Metallurgist at Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) pursuing basic research on material structure–property relationship. He also holds the position of Adjunct Professor of Materials Science at George Washington University in Washington, DC. Dr. Imam obtained a D.Sc. degree in Materials Science from George Washington University and an M.S. from Carnegie–Mellon University in the field of Metallurgy and Materials Science.
R. Srinivasan is the Professor in the Mechanical and Materials Engineering Department, is the Director of the Materials Science and Engineering Program at Wright State University, Dayton, Ohio. He received his PhD from the State University of New York, Stony Brook, and his MS from the University of Florida, Gainesville, both in Materials Science and Engineering, after completing his bachelors degree from the Indian Institute of Technology, Madras.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
The Case of the Weird Sherlock Holmes Adaptations
Guy Ritchie is merely the latest director to perpetrate crimes against the legendary detective.
Fans of the original four Holmes novels and 56 stories will no doubt, rightly, be appalled. Aside from names and a few minor details, little binds this movie to the characters and events of Conan Doyle's fiction. Where the Holmes of print was fastidious to a fault, Downey's character leaves a trail of physical destruction. Where Conan Doyle's hero was cold and introverted, Downey's Sherlock is a histrionic rakehell. The mode of the original character, in fact, was not breakneck adventurism at all: In Conan Doyle's telling, Holmes was a consummate scientist who did his best work alone in an armchair. "It always annoyed me how in the old-fashioned story, the detective always seemed to get at his results either by some lucky chance, or luck, or else it was quite unexplained how he got there," Conan Doyle once said. His goal was to create a sleuth whose genius lay not in his street smarts but in his skill working entirely—and transparently—from data.
These qualities, of course, were not invented for the screen. The mountain of Sherlock movies is vast, but it makes for treacherous, often depressing, climbing. Holmes appeared on film for the first time in 1900 in a short movie produced by Thomas Edison. Since then, he has shown up in more than 200 productions. Many are deeply weird. Despite being one of the most precisely fetishized figures in the Western canon—a true Holmes fan knows every small detail of décor in his fictional apartment, every chronological quirk in the fiction—the great detective's filmography is a long compendium of crimes against the character. Holmes has been dragged onto the screen with strange clothes, odd psychology, and all manner of substance-abuse problems. He's been placed in the wrong time period, on the wrong continent, and at the wrong stage of life. He's been made to fight the Nazis. He has swashbuckled. The more of Holmes you see on-screen, the more you realize Ritchie's effort is merely the latest rite in a decades-old tradition of character-mangling. For every baffling liberty Sherlock Holmes takes, a score of stranger ones have come before.
Click here
Correction, Dec. 27, 2009: The subheadline of the article originally misspelled Guy Ritchie's last name.


text:
The United States Tennis Association (USTA) and Human Kinetics have teamed up to provide coaches and players at all levels with some of the best available resources on coaching strategies, technical and tactical advice, practice drills, warm-up exercises, conditioning programs, and stroke development. The American Sport Education Program (ASEP), the coaching education division of Human Kinetics, delivers the Coaching Youth Tennis online course as part of the USTA coaching education program.
The USTA is the national governing body for the sport of tennis and the recognized leader in promoting and developing the sport's growth on every level in the United States, from local communities to the crown jewel of the professional game, the US Open.
The USTA is the largest tennis organization in the world, with 17 geographical sections, more than 700,000 individual members, and 7,000 organizational members. USTA supports the advancement of tennis through 5 components:
Human Kinetics' partnership with the USTA continues to flourish, and jointly they will develop cutting-edge products and distribute information to enhance the game of tennis.
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Products, Public Service
By By Ernie Stephens | March 1, 2013
Send Feedback
If you flipped though the previous pages of this issue without reading the Rotorcraft Report entitled "Laser Attack Injures Helo Crewmember," I'm flattered that you landed here first. But what I'm about to tell you is a continuation of that piece written just for the law enforcement community. So, if you haven't seen that short item, please check it out now, then return here.
Chris Elrod, a friend and top-drawer tactical flight officer (TFO), said that when the blue laser beam swept through the cockpit of the MD520N that he, TFO trainee Eddie Martin, and pilot Todd Dolihite were flying, they were a good 800 feet away from the knucklehead who was aiming it at them. But they managed to see which balcony of the high-rise apartment building it was coming from, and were able to guide ground units to the culprit, later identified as 40-year old Jules Labonte.
Labonte admitted to patrol officers on the scene that he was showing off his new, $299 Wicked-brand Arctic laser to his nephew. Of course, the ASP baton-size device was seized as evidence. But before sending it to the property room, officers and detectives experimented with its capabilities. Between what they witnessed at the station, what they found on Wicked's website, and what they saw in amateur videos posted on the Internet, it was clear that the Arctic laser could be a serious threat to any law enforcement officer, and not just those who fly. When I learned of the incident, I went to the company's website myself. I was barely through half of their marketing video when my jaw dropped. Here was a shaft of energy that was popping more than a dozen balloons lined up one behind the other. I had never seen a hand-held laser, outside of the ones in laboratories, do that before! But what made me more nervous was watching the other videos I found. Just plugging the words "Arctic laser" in my search engine revealed video after video of teenagers etching letters into stuff, popping kernels of popcorn, and (of course) recreating the company's balloon stunt.
What I'm trying to wrap my head around are three simple things. First, how is it that a light device that can drill through material, cook food, and burn a man's eyes from 800 feet be made available to the general public, including people I wouldn't trust with a regular flashlight? Second, what is the attraction people have for laser pointers—outside of a learning environment, or course—that makes them the hottest selling item at beaches, carnivals and sporting events, especially among juveniles? And third, how long is it going to be before someone's vision is seriously and permanently impaired while holding 4,000 lbs. of helicopter and crew in the air?
Elrod was very lucky. The ophthalmologist said his injury was minor, and probably wouldn't have any lasting effects. But this thing changes the game for aviators. The first time I was hit by a laser was before the handheld kind sold at office supply stores had become popular. Laser sighting systems for firearms, however, were readily available, which is why I snatched the collective up into my armpit, and got us out of Dodge as soon as I saw that red dot ricochet through my ship. Now, there doesn't even have to be a bullet on the other end of that beam of light in order to be a big problem. The beam itself can now be the problem! And folks, that sucker is powerful enough to reach out and touch you from over two miles away; far enough to make it difficult to identify where its coming from, particularly if your first order of business is to avoid looking directly into it.
Once word gets out about how nasty these devices are, will the bad guys begin using them to shoo police helicopters away, because they know the pilot will want to avoid the possibility of taking a hit? Elrod took the time to search for the "shooter," but that was before he and his partners knew they had been illuminated by a laboratory-grade laser cannon that could burn their eyes.
For now, we here at Rotor & Wing are asking all pilots to be very careful when they see any shaft or dot of light that looks to be coming from a laser device. Yes, the relatively safe, low-power ones are all over the place. But according to Elrod and his partners, the tipoff that a Class IV beam is on you will be its exceptional brilliance, compared to what you've probably seen in the past.
By the way, the FBI and FAA were notified of the attack. Sources say that both agencies are waiting for Labonte's trial to conclude before they take any action at their levels. And even though the FAA and the FBI have already publically announced a zero-tolerance policy toward laser attacks, I hope they kick regulatory and enforcement action up a notch with Class IV laser assaults.
Meanwhile, I'm working on an air-to-ground weapon that can lock onto the source of a laser, and use that beam to target the Jedi standing behind it with a barrage of florescent pink paintballs. Financial backers are welcome.
Be careful, ladies and gentlemen. These lasers are dangerous!


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Mon - Fri 10-6
Sat - 10-6
Sun - 11-5
Gallery Mattress & Rustics is a family owned and operated business, that has been in the Austin and surrounding areas since 1993, right here in Texas. From day one, our goal was to offer our customers the best value and service in name brand furniture. How do we do it? High volume buying means lower prices; lower prices mean high volume sales! So, we went directly to the manufacturers, showed them our business plan and demanded a "highest volume, lowest price deal". They said "ok"! Why Gallery Mattress & Rustics? Next, we set out to keep our costs down by leasing the most inexpensive location we could find. How do we guarantee the lowest price? The owner figured that if we cut out all the middle management and administrative costs, we could save people even more money. "Why not give all our store personnel the responsibility that they deserve, let them make their own decisions and manage themselves. They will take more pride and ownership in their stores and provide a friendlier, more relaxed environment to the customer." So, when you stop into any Gallery Mattress & Rustics location, you will see the largest selection of brand name mattresses, at the absolute guaranteed lowest price. You will be greeted by a very knowledgeable and courteous store manager and he or she will assure that you will always get the guaranteed lowest price.Thanks: Gallery Mattress & Rustics.!
Bedroom Sets
Dining Rooms
Entertainment Centers
TV Stands
Coffee Tables
Gallery Mattress & Rustic
Corsicana Bedding
Million Dollar Rustic
L.M.T Rustic And Western Imports
1496 Hwy 71 West Bastrop, TX 78602


text:
Northridge defeats Columbia City
MIDDLEBURY— Northridge's girls basketball team used a big first half lead to defeat Columbia City Friday.The Lady Raiders won by a final margin of 62-32. The game was the first in pool play for both teams in Northridge's Tournament.Columbia City (7-5) will take on Andrean tomorrow morning in the tournament.Lady Eagle Head Coach Amy Shearer said a lack of effort from her team allowed too many easy baskets for Northridge.To read the rest of this story, see the December 28-29 issue of The Post and Mail. Don't have a subscription? Call (260) 244-5153 or subscribe to our e-edition. For breaking news, sports updates and additional coverage, bookmark the homepage and find us on facebook and twitter.


text:
Friday Nights @ OMCA
Join OMCA and Off the Grid on 10th Street every for a taste of local music, food, art, and culture! Savor California beer, wine and non-alcoholic beverages around the Koi Pond at the Blue Oak beer garden. Enjoy half-price admission, live music, hands-on activities for kids, and extended OMCA Store hours. Bring the whole family to OMCA for a sampling of the best in Bay Area curbside cuisine!
What to expect on June 6:
5–9 pm: Half-off gallery admission for adults, free for ages 18 and under
5–9 pm: Local beer and wine specials in the Blue Oak beer garden
5–9 pm: All Museum galleries open late
5–9 pm: Gourmet food trucks from Off the Grid featuring the best in local cuisine: get the weekly list here
5–6:30 pm: June resident DJ Juan Data spinning hits in the 10th Street Amphitheater
5–8 pm: Family-friendly drop-in activity: make your own comic book, inspired by the exhibition SuperAwesome
6–8 pm: Makers & Tasters Series featuring an interactive recycling game by the City of Oakland on the benefits of zero waste
6:30–7 pm: world dance instruction with Nkeiruka Oruche in the 10th Street Amphitheater
7–8:30 pm: Talk, Play, and Sip, an in-gallery program in the exhibition Vinyl, featuring DJ Billy Jam
7–9 pm: Live band, The Funk Revival Orchestra playing funk and soul in the 10th Street Amphitheater
7:30–7:45 pm: A Snack Size Docent Tour, a fifteen-minute mini-tour led by a talented OMCA Docent to introduce you one of the Galleries, this time focusing on LGBT History in honor of Pride Month
Cost: Half-price gallery admission for adults, ages 18 and under are free. Admission for Members is always free. Cash bar. Prices vary for Off the Grid food trucks.
Transportation: OMCA is located one block from the Lake Merritt BART Station. Event parking is available at the Museum for a $5 flat fee after 5 pm.
Presented in partnership with Off the Grid: Lake Merritt @ OMCA.
Friday Nights @ OMCA are made possible in part by generous support from the Walter and Elise Haas Fund.


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Probation officers kick off careers in Bow
A/M grad returns home - Terisa Gilligan doesn't exactly fit the image most would have of a probation officer. But that does not deter her from doing her job. The 2006 Anselmo-Merna High School graduate began her duties as probation officer in Custer County in September 2011 - though she says that was not her first career choice. After high school, Terisa went to McCook Community College where she was a member of the volleyball team. After one year in McCook she transferred to Mid Plains Community College in North Platte, where she earned her associate's degree. Terisa then attended the University of Nebraska-Kearney for two and one half years, obtaining a bachelor of science degree in criminal justice. Originally her goal was pre-law, which she says is an extremely challenging program. She was working at the county attorney's office in Kearney when this probation officer job came open, so she decided to apply. "Being a probation officer had not really even crossed my mind until this job came open," Terisa says. She says she decided to give it a try, and saw it as a good opportunity for a job that could help her start to pay back her student loans. But in the last year and a half, the job has become much more than that. The position Terisa filled had been held by Tom Gidley, whose office was based in Ord. When Gidley retired the Ord office was closed and relocated to Broken Bow. Terisa explains that she learned early on to set firm ground rules with her clients at their initial meeting. While she says it has, at times, been a little awkward dealing with individuals who may have known her previously, she says she has not had any problems as a result. She says the biggest challenge of the job is the amount of paperwork involved, and being able to keep track of all her clients at the same time. Her favorite part of the job, she says, is doing pre-sentence investigations, as it gives her an opportunity to learn about her clients and get to know them on a more personal level. She explains that the clients are assessed and classified by the paperwork they fill out, and that determines their frequency of visits, etc. Terisa also explains that the guidelines require the probation officers to have two years of experience before being assigned high-risk cllients. The district served by this office is a large territory, the same as the 8th judicial district. Four probation officers serve this district - one in Ainsworth, one in O'Neill and two in Broken Bow.Olson relocates for new job - The Broken Bow probation office was handled for many years by Jeff Kawata. Now there is a new kid on the block by the name of Nathan Olson. Like his counterpart, Terisa Gilligan, becoming a probation officer was not the first career choice for Olson. His plan was to be a counselor. A 2008 high school graduate of Norfolk, Olson continued his education at Hastings College. He graduated in May 2012, with a bachelor's degree in psychology. Though working as a probation officer may not have been his first choice, Olson made that decision prior to completing his college education. He says he had a coach in high school who also served as a probation officer, and that sparked some interest in Olson. "I thought this would be a great start for me. I know that as a counselor you work alot with probation officers, so having this knowledge will only benefit me," Olson explained. He started his new position as probation officer in Broken Bow July 2, 2012. While Olson says he came in with a pretty good idea of what to expect of his new job, he has found the biggest challenge to be time management. His position is a little different from Terisa's, in that Olson serves part-time as a traditional probation officer and part-time as drug court officer. The drug court program is fairly new in Custer County, and has gained momentum across the state in recent years. Olson says he is a strong advocate of the program, and believes it to be very beneficial. "If I were to continue in this field, that would be the area I would want to continue in," Olson says of the drug court program. Olson says the thing he most enjoys about his involvement in the drug court program is seeing the process of change take place in the clients he works with - specifically, changes in their thoughts and behaviors. While his new job keeps him plenty busy, Olson still manages to find time for his favorite pasttime - basketball. He played basketball in high school and for the Hastings College Broncos. This year, he also served as assistant coach for the Broken Bow High School boys basketball program. Olson says the sheer size of the territory his office covers can be daunting, and the travel time somewhat frustrating, it is a job he enjoys. He says he likes the community of Broken Bow and sees himself here for at least several years.


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Home > Industry Analysis > Research & Analysis > FDIC Working Papers Series
FDIC Working Papers Series
The Contributuion of Economic Data to Bank - Failure Models
Working Paper 2003-03
August 2003
Daniel A. Nuxoll*
* This working paper reports the details of one part of a three-part study done in close collaboration with John OKeefe and Katherine Samolyk. See Nuxoll, OKeefe, and Samolyk (2003). While each author had primary responsibility for one part of that study, many of the ideas in this part were developed in close collaboration with OKeefe and Samolyk.
The opinions expressed here are the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the FDIC.
The wave of bank failures during the late 1980s and early 1990s was caused in part by a series of regional recessions. This paper examines whether the FDIC can use state-level economic data to forecast bank failures and finds that these data do not improve models that use only bank-level data. The paper also proposes a number of explanations for the lack of improvement.
Virtually all economists would accept that economic conditions affect the health of banks. An FDIC research team has investigated whether this basic theory can be translated into a forecasting model, and specifically whether nonbank economic data can be used to improve forecasts of bank health. This project was a systematic effort to explore the somewhat surprising result noted by some of the developers of the Federal Reserve Systems off-site program: regional economic variables do not improve the forecasts of bank health.1
This paper reports on one aspect of that project: whether nonbank data can improve bank-failure forecasts.2 In general, we find that economic data do not improve these forecasts despite the fact that the data are statistically significant.3 Possible explanations for this result are explored in the conclusion.
This paper begins with a short description of the relationship between bank conditions and economic events in several regions in the United States. The second section describes both the bank-specific and the economic data used in this exercise. The third discusses bank-failure models in general before turning to whether economic data improve failure models. The conclusion speculates about the possible reasons that state-level economic data do not improve the forecasts.
Bank Conditions and Economic Events
A casual examination of data from the past couple of decades might suggest that there is a very weak connection between the health of the economy and the health of the banking sector. Figure 1 plots the growth rate of personal income (solid line) in the United States as well as the number of bank failures (broken line). The number of failures did increase shortly after the recessions of 1973 and 19801982. However, failures actually peaked in 1989, following a period of steady economic growth. During the recession of 19911992, fewer banks failed than in preceding years
However, most accounts that stress the importance of the economy to the banking industry stress the importance of local economies. The FDICs History of the Eighties (1997) refers extensively to local economic conditions in its discussions of the difficulties experienced by agricultural banks and of banking problems in the Southwest, New England, and California. Until the 1980s, many states severely limited the geographic market for banks by legally restricting branching and bank holding companies. Consequently, almost all banks tended to draw all their deposits from their home states and to make the bulk of their loans in a very circumscribed area. The relevant economic conditions for most banks were local, not national.
Figures 25 are analogous to figure 1; however, they plot the growth of personal income for an individual state (solid line) against the percentage of banks that failed in that state (broken line).4 Figures 2, 3, and 4 plot events in Texas, Massachusetts, and Californiastates that had notable banking crises. In contrast to figure 1, these seem to confirm the conventional wisdom that recessions cause banking failures. However, figure 5 plots events in Ohio, a state that had substantial economic problems but only a handful of bank failures.5 Ohio is not unique in this regard. Apparently, banking crises tend to occur as a result of economic problems, but not all episodes of economic distress produce banking crises.
A closer examination of the figures does reveal a definite pattern. The economies of Texas, Massachusetts, and California all grew more rapidly than the economies in the rest of the United States for several years before the problems developed, whereas Ohio (and other states that did not have banking crises) did not experience a boom. This fact suggests that banking crises tend to follow a boom/bust cycle. This pattern might occur because banks tend to lend aggressively in those states experiencing booms. Many of those loans then might go sour when the economy deteriorates, and the more aggressive banks might suffer large losses and fail.6 Banks in less buoyant markets do not have the temptation to gamble on growth.
This pattern suggests that any model that uses state-level economic data to forecast bank failures should look back over a number of years and should be structured to allow for this sort of dynamic. The next section explains how this was done.
The Data and the Model
Table 1 describes the variables that were used in the set of specifications of the model discussed in this working paper, and table 2 reports the sample medians, means, and standard deviations for the variables. Table 1 also describes some alternative economic variables that were explored. The first panel of each of the first two tables describes Call Report variables and examination variables. These are standard examination and Call Report data that have been used by both academic and government researchers in bank-failure models. There are three important categories of data: prior CAMEL ratings, capital/asset ratios, and loan-quality ratios. Other variables were also used, but the results indicated that these three categories of variables have the most explanatory power.7 All Call Report data were from the December reports. No effort was made to eliminate stale CAMEL ratings.8
The Call Report and examination data are basically control variables. The variables of interest are the economic variables. The economic data were chosen with the criterion of whether they were likely to contribute to the accuracy of forecasts of failure among all FDIC-insured commercial banks. This criterion eliminated a number of data series.
Some data are simply not available on a timely basis. For example, Gross State Product (GSP) might be a better indicator of economic conditions than personal income. However, GSP data are available only with a lag of a couple of years, so 1998 data might be available only in 2000.
Second, the data must exist for times and locations in which there were a substantial number of bank failures. For example, even with the best data one could probably not estimate any sort of reasonable bank-failure model for the states of Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, and South Carolina. These five states had a total of 18 bank failures between 1980 and 1995, and there are simply not enough observations to estimate accurately any kind of model. Similarly, there was one bank failure in 1997 in the whole United States, so it is impossible to estimate any reasonable bank-failure model based solely on the data for that year.
Finally, other data are available for some regions but not for all. These data are potentially useful only for a subset of FDIC-insured banks; but this project had a broader focus. For example, a wide variety of series on local economic conditions are available only for a few states or cities. Forecasts of regional economic conditions might be a very useful indicator of the likelihood that banks in a region will fail in the future. Many firms produce those forecasts for some states or cities. However, the coverage of these forecasts is spotty, so their usefulness is limited.
Three broad categories of data meet the basic criterion: personal-income data, employment data, and banking aggregates.9 Table 1 lists a number of these data series as "State Economic Variables" or "Alternative State Economic Variables." During the course of this project, each of these data series was tested. In general, the employment data were the least useful, and growth in personal income and growth in total loans made by banks headquartered in a state improved the failure models the most.
In order to include the type of dynamic discussed above, we used five years worth of data in the models. For example, if the growth rate in personal income was used, the model included five growth-rate termsthe rates from the year before the Call Report, from two years before it, and from three, four, and five years before it. Some experimentation revealed that using five years of data produced coefficients that were imprecisely estimated. The data are highly correlated, so the model cannot distinguish the effects of growth five years earlier from the effects of growth three years earlier. For that reason, most work used the growth rate of personal income between three and five years earlier, the growth rate two years earlier, and the previous years growth rate.10 This approach produced more precise coefficient estimates and better forecasts.
Throughout this project, a logistic model was used. This is a standard model among both academics and bank regulators.11 The model was fitted on bank failures that occurred within two years of the Call Report date, so the model can be said to have a two-year horizon.
After the model was fitted, out-of-sample forecasts were done. Because of the two-year horizon, the forecasts were based on data from the Call Report two years after the Call Report used to fit the model. For example, the model was fitted on failures in 1990 and 1991, Call Report data from December 1989, and the CAMEL rating for the last exam before December 1989. The coefficients were then used with Call Report and examination data from December 1991 to forecast failures in 1992 and 1993. In principle, the necessary data would have been available at the end of 1991 to forecast the failures over the next two years.12 This exercise mimics the way the FDIC or other banking agency might use such a model.
This model was estimated both as a cross section and as a pooled time-series cross section. This paper reports on the cross-section models estimated on data from the Call Reports of December 1986, December 1989, and December 1992 as well as on a pooled time-series cross-section model.13 These results are broadly representative of a much wider group of results.
These models have two types of errors, conventionally called Type I and Type II errors. Type I errors occur when the model indicates that a bank will survive, but the bank does not survive. Type II errors occur when the model predicts that a bank will fail, but it actually survives. More colloquially, Type I errors occur when the model frees the guilty, and the Type II errors occur when the model convicts the innocent.14
These models do not produce an unambiguous prediction that a bank will fail; rather, they estimate the probability that a bank will fail. A bank is projected to fail if its estimated probability exceeds a specific threshold level. Raising the threshold necessarily decreases the number of projected failures. Decreasing the number of projected failures also reduces the number of failures accurately forecasted, as well as the number of surviving banks projected to fail. Thus, a higher threshold increases the level of Type I errors and decreases the level of Type II errors. One can easily graph the trade-off between Type I and Type II errors by varying the threshold.
These graphs can be used to compare the accuracy of various models. More accurate models have a lower level of Type I errors for any given level of Type II errors. That is, the curve representing a more accurate model lies below and to the left of the curve for a less accurate model; or equivalently, the curve lies closer to the origin (which represents no Type I errors and no Type II errors).
It should be noted that such curves can intersect. In these cases, one model is not unambiguously better than the other.15
These errors can be measured both in-sample and out-of-sample. In-sample graphs use the same data that were used to estimate the model, so they reflect the fit of the data. However, for FDIC purposes, the critical criterion is not statistical fit but forecasting power. Forecasting is by definition out-of-sample, so out-of-sample errors are more relevant to the models usefulness to the FDIC.
For example, the model was estimated on failures in 1990 and 1991, Call Report data from December 1989, and the CAMEL rating for the last exam before December 1989. Type I and Type II errors are calculated in terms of the ability of the model to correctly identify failures in 1990 and 1991that is, in terms of the data used to estimate the model. The forecasting exercise uses the coefficients of this same model and December 1991 data to forecast failures in 1992 and 1993. Because the model was developed without data from 1992 or 1993, the Type I and Type II errors of this exercise are more indicative of the usefulness of the model.16
Table 3 reports results for four different samples. The first column gives the coefficient estimates and standard errors when December 1986 data are used to estimate the probability of failures in 1987 and 1988. A positive coefficient means that higher levels of the variable are associated with a larger probability of failure. One asterisk indicates that the coefficient is significant at least at the 10 percent level, two indicate 5 percent, and three indicate 1 percent. The chi-squared statistic is for the null hypothesis that all three loan/growth coefficients are zero. The three asterisks indicate that the null can be rejected at the 1 percent level of significance.
The second and third columns give the results of using December 1989 and December 1992 data to forecast failures in the following two years. The final column gives pooled results in which December 1984 data are used to forecast failures in 1985 and 1986, December 1986 data are used to forecast failures in 1987 and 1988, and so forth. The failures in this pooled data set occurred between 1985 and 1996; this period includes the vast majority of failures of institutions insured by the FDIC.
The results generally indicate that banks with lower levels of capital, higher levels of past-due loans, and lower loan-loss reserves are more likely to fail. These results are completely consistent with conventional wisdom and previous studies. Other results have not been as thoroughly documented, but they are consistent with what one might expect. Banks with worse CAMEL management and liquidity ratings are also more likely to fail.17 In addition, banks that have not been examined recently are more likely to fail. Low income is not a consistently significant indicator of failure, but at least the sign on net income is consistently negative.
The capital, asset, and earnings CAMEL ratings are mostly statistically insignificant, and their coefficients are often the "wrong" sign. One possible explanation is that the capital/asset ratio as well as the loss/reserves ratio conveys the relevant information in the capital rating, whereas the two past-due loan terms are redundant with the asset rating, and the earnings rating adds nothing to the net-income term. There are no variables in this specification that are obvious measures of management quality or liquidity.
The charge-off/bad loans ratio changes sign, and in the pooled model there is a statistically significant relationship between high charge-offs and failure. One could argue either that high charge-offs indicate that the bank has problems in the loan portfolio (and is likely to fail) or that the bank is dealing with the problems in the portfolio (and is likely to survive). The statistical results do not differentiate between these two theories.
Finally, there is an ambiguous but generally statistically significant relationship between a banks loan growth and its probability of failure. Small variations in loan growth are not economically significant, however, because the coefficients are very small. For example, in the pooled regression, consistent loan growth of 18 percent per year has about the same effect as a 1 percent difference in the capital/asset ratio.18
Table 4 reports the results of including the state-level economic data. The chi-squared statistic is for the null hypothesis that the coefficients on the state data all equal zero. The results in this table are representative in that the state data are usually highly significant. If the chi-squared statistic exceed 12.84, the variables are significant at least at the 5 percent level. The statistics in table 4 exceed this standard by a wide margin. This result is not quite universal; there are some specifications in which state data are insignificant in the early 1990s.
The economic data have the expected signs. The negative coefficient on the previous years personal-income growth means that failure is more likely when the state in which the bank is headquartered is growing less rapidly than the rest of the United States. The positive coefficient on the growth that occurred between three and five years earlier means that high growth in the past tends to put banks at more risk. The data confirm the impression of a boom/bust pattern to bank failures.
Moreover, the coefficients are economically significant. The effect of a 1 percent decrease in the capital-asset ratio has about the same effect as being located in a state that was growing 1.4 percent more rapidly than the rest of the nation and is now growing 1.4 percent less rapidly.19
Figure 6 shows the in-sample trade-off between Type I and Type II errors for the Call Report data from December 1986. The broken line graphs the trade-off between Type I and Type II errors for the model that uses only bank data, while the solid line shows the trade-off for the model that includes state economic data. The inclusion of state data clearly improves the model.20 The model without state data can achieve a 10 percent Type II error (about 1,200 banks incorrectly considered probable failures) only at the cost of a 23.2 percent Type I error (84 missed failures). The model with state data can attain a 10 percent Type II error with only a 10.2 percent Type I error (37 missed failures). These results are not too surprising because the chi-squared statistic in table 4 indicates that the state data considerably improve the fit of the model. Figure 7 shows analogous results for the December 1989 Call Reports. The two curves actually intersect in this case. Though the state data are statistically significant, there is no obvious advantage to using the additional data in this period.
Though a model with more data necessarily has at least as good a fit as models with less data, the same is not true for forecasting. It is well known among macroeconomic forecasters that more sophisticated models often perform worse than simpler models.
Figures 8 and 9 show the results of two forecasting exercises. Figure 8 shows the results of using the model estimated on December 1986 Call Report data to estimate the probability of failure in 1987 and 1988. In principle, an economist could have estimated this model in January 1989 and used the coefficients and Call Report data from December 1988 to forecast failures in 1989 and 1990. Figure 8 shows that the addition of state data does not improve the model. Figure 9 tells a similar story for forecasts of 1992 and 1993.21 These figures are representative of a large number of specifications. While it is possible to find specifications in which state data actually improve forecasts for some periods, we were unable to find a specification in which state data consistently improved forecasts. Indeed, for most specifications, the inclusion of state data actually produced noticeably worse forecasts for some periods. A model that included state data would have misled regulators during some periods.22
Possible Explanations
There are a multitude of possible explanations for these results. First, the specification might be incorrect. All empirical work runs this risk.
Arguably, this project has been more affected by the opposite problem: during the course of this project, numerous specifications were tested with the goal of finding the correct specification. The search was done in terms of both statistical significance and forecasting power. Such searches can easily produce spurious results that owe more to overfitting than to any underlying economic relationship. Consequently, the results of a specification search might be suspect. In fact, the current project searched and did not find results. The problem is not overfitting, but the lack of results.
Second, it is possible that the conventional wisdom is simply wrong. This is highly unlikely because almost any specification shows that state economic data are highly significant, in-sample.
Third, it is possible that we have too little data on the relationship between local economic conditions and banking failures. During the period between 1980 and 1995, there were four major waves of banking failures: in the oil states of the Southwest, in the Northeast, in California, and in the agricultural sections of the Midwest. There were other minor crises (for example, in Alaska and Utah), but these affected relatively few banks. The limited number of events might not be sufficient to estimate a general relationship.
Fourth, as the savings and loan crisis demonstrated, the failure of a bank is a legal, not an economic, event. A bank does not fail when it becomes insolvent; a bank fails when the relevant bank supervisor says that the bank has failed. Some have argued that a policy of forbearance was replaced by a policy of closing problem institutions quickly. In 1991, this change was legally mandated by the prompt corrective action provisions of FDICIA.
This policy change would change the timing of bank failures relative to economic events. Events in Texas and Massachusetts are suggestive. If supervisors close banks only after banks have had a chance to work out problems, then there will be a lag between economic crises and banking crises. There was approximately a three-year lag in Texas (c.f. figure 2). However, if supervisors close banks quickly, the lag will be shorter. Banks in Massachusetts failed soon after that state went into recession; figure 3 shows practically no lag. If this is the case, the forecasting model performs poorly because the model is looking for the same lag in Massachusetts that it found in Texas.
Fifth, bank data are economic data. Any reasonable model of bank failure includes a number of variables that reflect the health of the local economy. Loans past due 3089 days, for example, are procyclical and seem to be roughly contemporaneous.23 Because bank balance sheets reflect local economic conditions, the question is whether other economic data, such as personal-income growth, add anything to that information.
Bank data do have one important advantage in failure models. The bank is affected by the economy in which it does business. And virtually no bank markets coincide with state boundaries. Most banks have only a few branches and do business in a relatively small area, so their health depends less on the condition of the state economy than on whether the local factory shuts down or whether local farmers can survive a drought. On the other hand, some banks lend out-of-state, exposing part of their portfolio to events in other states.24 Of course, money-center banks do business throughout the world, so the less-developed-country crisis is an inherent part of the history of banks during the 1980s. Currently, the federal agencies do know where banks have branches and how much money has been deposited in those branches. However, even if these data were completely accurate (and they are probably not), the major risk to banks is loans, not deposits. Given these problems, it is virtually impossible to measure economic conditions accurately within a banks market.
The banks balance sheet, however, indicates economic conditions precisely within the banks market. Of course, that information is noisy because the quality of the management and other factors affect the balance sheet. Arguably, this is an advantage, for the question is not the health of the economy where the bank does business but how the economy affects the bank. That effect depends heavily on the quality of management.
Hence, state economic data might add little to forecasting models because they do not add any information to the data already in the model.
It must be stressed that these explanations are conjectural. Some are logically impossible to verify (for example, logically one can never show that there is no additional information in data). Moreover, the proposed reasons are undoubtedly incomplete.25
Though the reasons for our failure to find an effect are not obvious, it is obvious that we did not find a way to use state economic data to improve forecasts of bank failure.
Notes for alterative state economic variables:Five years of data were used. All variables were run both as levels and as differences from the comparable U.S. value. All variables were run both as levels and as differences from the comparable U.S. value. All dollar values were deflated by the GDP deflator. Total loans and assets are from the December Call Report. Thrifts and credit card banks were excluded.
Notes:Medians, means, and standard deviations were calculated across all banks (excluding credit card banks) between 1984 and 1996.The Call Report variables and the state economic variables are as of the end of December, and the examination variables are for the last exam before the end of December.
Notes:For each variable, the coefficient is in the first line. The standard error of the coefficient is in the second line.
* Significant at the 10% level.
Notes:For each variable, the coefficient is in the first line. The standard error of the coefficient is in the second line.
* Significant at the 10% level.
** Significant at the 5% level.
*** Significant at the 1% level.
The Call Report variables are as of the end of the year, and the examination variables are for the last exam before the end of the year. Failures occurred within two years of the Call Report.
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Today is National Donut Day. Officially, it is a day to honor the women who served donuts to soldiers during World War II. In practice it's about donuts. That means to me that this holiday, like Valentine's Day, Mother's Day, or Father's Day, seems to be a bit of a "duh" holiday. A day designed for those who need a kick in the pants to appreciate a special part of their daily life. We should appreciate our partners and our parents every day. However, our busy lives and self absorbed ways have forced us to smack a date on our calendar to remember to do this. Now, the delightful inner tube of joy is suffering a similar fate. We mindlessly pull into a Dunkin's or Krispy Kreme, grab a donut, and consume it one-handed as we ponder today's agenda or last nights worries. The donut has become an item of convenience. We take it for granted and, in doing so, we have lost sight of how wondrous and varied this confection is.
My husband and I are not big Valentine's Day people. We've worked hard to make sure that we feel valued and appreciated in our relationship always; Hallmark can go pawn their junk elsewhere. However, in late January the bombardment of plastic hearts and bad chocolate is hard to ignore. One day after running errands, I brought up Valentine's Day junk, this segued into a discussion of useless holidays, this segued into a discussion of undervalued items, this led, as so many conversations with my husband do, to a conversation about donuts.
My husband's love of donuts runs deep. He is always on the search for the transcendent creme filled donut. Five years ago he initiated a donut tour to take in the donut shops of the greater Lowell area. Now our conversation got him thinking about Donut Tour Redux – More donuts! More locations! More people! He hit the internet and planned our route. Then he hit the phones and assembled a fearless group of culinary adventures. We planned a date. Visions of jelly cremes danced in our heads.
The morning of February 7, 2009, dawned bright and sunny. Our alarm awoke us at about 6:30 am. We got out of bed, got dressed, and raised our house-guests. Our friend, Cliffy, flew out from Santa Cruz, CA to join in our pilgrimage. Two other donut devotees, Will and Shannon, spent the night before with us so that we could get an early start. We jumped into the rental van and hit the road. We stopped a few exits down the highway to meet the last of our crew, Corey and Megan. Corey presented us with our uniforms, bold red t-shirts that proclaimed our mantra, "Donut go gentle into that good night." Dylan Thomas groaned in his grave; we chuckled.
Our first stop was Donna's Donuts in Tewksbury, Ma. Donna's was selected, primarily, for their cheeky approach to the donut form. One can get a damn fine traditional donut at Donna's, but why would you when Donna's also constructs faux cheeseburgers, steak and cheese subs, and meatball subs that trick the eyes and delight the palate? What looks like melted cheese is really silky bavarian creme and the shredded "steak" is artfully deconstructed shreds of chocolate donut. We controlled our enthusiasm for the bounty before us and saved some belly room. The day was young, more donuts awaited us.
Stop number two was Ziggy's Donuts in Salem, Ma. Ziggy's is small and intimate. It is a family run establishment that prides itself on making a good product at a fair price. Their loyal customers are proud to show their appreciation. The proprietors of Ziggy's are warm and welcoming. It felt like being in your gramma's kitchen, if your gramma was a passionate baker. I wanted to spend all morning perched on a barstool nibbling and soaking up tales of yesteryear. Unfortunately, the open road and the lure of more donuts beckoned us onward.
Our third stop was the legendary Kane's Donuts in Saugus. Kane's had been featured on the Travel Channel and their fame is well deserved. This place is part donut joint and part community center. The owners greeted us with huge smiles that were rivaled only by the size of their massive coffee rolls. I know, strictly speaking a coffee roll is not a donut, but they are a breakfast pastry and they deserve some love too. Kane's is bright and cheery and the donuts are delicious. Kane's deserves all the accolades they have garnered.
We were two hours into our adventure and so far we had eaten our way into a state of donut bliss, a happy sugar coma that left us smiley and complacent. We pointed our van towards Malden to visit Sun Guang Bakery. My mother always told me that if I can't think of anything nice to say then I should keep my mouth shut. However, on this blog we strive for honesty so I will try to stick to the facts. These donuts had an irregular shape and a greasy, fishy taste. Shocked out of our bliss, we swished water in our mouths, spit, and moved on.
Our final destination was Japonaise Bakery in Brookline. We had heard of their savory donut creations and were intrigued. They make a curry donut. It is a puffy donut filled with curried beef and vegetables. It is served heated and, though it may sound peculiar, it is absolutely delicious. It is a gourmet Hot Pocket. As I think about it, I am craving on right now.
Filled to the bursting point with donuts, we headed home. As we drove along we evaluated the day. So much of our daily lives are lived on auto pilot. We go through the motions. We interact with one another, pass through our spaces, and fill our bodies without really taking the time to appreciate the people, the places, and meals that make up our lives. Donut Tour 2010 was silly and I loved it. I spent the day with people I adore appreciating a simply delicious treat. Happy National Donut Day! Grab someone who makes you happy and go eat the yummiest donut you can find. It is so worth it.


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La paella actually refers to the low, wide pan in which this dish is cooked. Originally invented by the peasants of Valencia following the introduction of rice in Spain, this delicious dish is perfect for entertaining large groups and makes for a very festive meal.
Serves 6
This recipe is for making paella in a Dutch oven (the Dutch oven should be 11 to 12 inches in diameter with at least a 6-quart capacity). Dry-cured Spanish chorizo is the sausage of choice for paella, but fresh chorizo or linguiça is an acceptable substitute. Soccarat, a layer of crusty browned rice that forms on the bottom of the pan, is a traditional part of paella. In our version, soccarat does not develop because most of the cooking is done in the oven. We have provided instructions to develop soccarat in step 5; if you prefer, skip this step and go directly from step 4 to step 6.
1 pound extra-large shrimp (21 to 25 per pound), peeled and deveined
Salt and ground black pepper
Olive oil
8–9 medium garlic cloves, minced or pressed through a garlic press (2 generous tablespoons)
1 pound boneless, skinless chicken thighs, each thigh trimmed of excess fat and halved crosswise
1 red bell pepper, stemmed, seeded, and cut pole to pole into 1/2-inch-wide strips
8 ounces Spanish chorizo, sliced 1/2 inch thick on the bias (see note)
1 medium onion, chopped fine (about 1 cup)
1 (14.5-ounce) can diced tomatoes, drained, minced, and drained again
2 cups Valencia or Arborio rice
3 cups low-sodium chicken broth
1/3 cup dry white wine
1/2 teaspoon saffron threads, crumbled
1 dried bay leaf
1 dozen mussels, scrubbed and debearded
1/2 cup frozen peas, thawed
2tablespoons chopped fresh parsley leaves
1 lemon, cut into wedges, for serving
1. Adjust an oven rack to the lower-middle position; heat the oven to 350 degrees. Toss the shrimp, 1/4 teaspoon salt, 1/4 teaspoon pepper, 1 tablespoon oil, and 1 teaspoon of the garlic in a medium bowl; cover with plastic wrap and refrigerate until needed. Season the chicken thighs with salt and pepper; set aside.
2. Heat 2 teaspoons oil in a large Dutch oven over medium-high heat until shimmering but not smoking. Add the pepper strips and cook, stirring occasionally, until the skin begins to blister and turn spotty black, 3 to 4 minutes. Transfer the pepper to a small plate and set aside.
3. Add 1 teaspoon oil to the now-empty Dutch oven; heat the oil until shimmering but not smoking. Add the chicken pieces in a single layer; cook, without moving the pieces, until browned, about 3 minutes. Turn the pieces and brown on the second side, about 3 minutes longer; transfer the chicken to a medium bowl. Reduce the heat to medium and add the chorizo to the pot; cook, stirring frequently, until deeply browned and the fat begins to render, 4 to 5 minutes. Transfer the chorizo to a bowl with the chicken and set aside.
4. Add enough oil to the fat in the Dutch oven to equal 2 tablespoons; heat over medium heat until shimmering but not smoking. Add the onion and cook, stirring frequently, until softened, about 3 minutes; stir in the remaining garlic and cook until fragrant, about 1 minute. Stir in the tomatoes; cook until the mixture begins to darken and thicken slightly, about 3 minutes. Stir in the rice and cook until the grains are well coated with the tomato mixture, 1 to 2 minutes. Stir in the chicken broth, wine, saffron, bay leaf, and 1/2 teaspoon salt. Return the chicken and chorizo to the pot, increase the heat to medium-high, and bring to a boil, uncovered, stirring occasionally. Cover the pot and transfer it to the oven; cook until the rice absorbs almost all of the liquid, about 15 minutes. Remove the pot from the oven (close the oven door to retain heat). Uncover the pot; scatter the shrimp over the rice, insert the mussels hinged-side down into the rice (so they stand upright), arrange the bell pepper strips in a pinwheel pattern, and scatter the peas over the top. Cover and return to the oven; cook until the shrimp are opaque and the mussels have opened, 10 to 12 minutes.
5. Optional: If soccarat (see note) is desired, set the Dutch oven, uncovered, over medium-high heat for about 5 minutes, rotating the pot 180 degrees after about 2 minutes for even browning.
6. Let the paella stand, covered, about 5 minutes. Discard any mussels that have not opened and the bay leaf, if it can be easily removed. Sprinkle with the parsley and serve, passing the lemon wedges separately.


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More Info
Key Features
- Internal Memory: 128GB
- Mega Pixels: 12
- OS: Apple iOS
- Data Standard: 4G
- Talk Time: Up to 20 hours
- Colour: Gold
- Sim Type: Nano SIM
O2 Refresh
- Why Choose O2?
- O2 is the commercial brand of Telefónica UK Limited and is a leading digital communications company with the highest customer satisfaction for any mobile provider according to Ofcom. With over 23 million customers, O2 runs 2G, 3G and 4G networks across the UK, as well as operating O2 Wifi. O2 has average download speeds of10.4 Mbps and 98% network reliability.
- Get your hands on the latest phone by upgrading early with O2 refresh plans. Trade in your old phone any time for money off the latest model.


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Rossignol S7
168, 178, 188
Where to Buy
sponsored links
Help support this site by making your next gear purchase through one of the links above. Click a link, buy what you need, and the seller will contribute a portion of the purchase price to support Trailspace's independent gear reviews.
Manufacturer's Description
Visit Rossignol's Men's S7 page.
Retailers' Descriptions
Here's what other sites are saying:
Surf your powder season away on the Rossignol S7 Skis for men. These rockered powder skis offer a new school ride that will serve you well in bounds and out. Rossi's Powder Turn Rocker profile features an even 50/50 camber/rocker split. The design delivers easy handling and turn-on-dime maneuverability, while still providing a surprisingly good carve on the groomers. These fun skis have been called playful, and they've been called game changers. The bottom line is that the S7 serves up remarkably versatile performance that puts powder slaying within reach for all skiers. Embrace the rocker movement with the Rossignol S7; you'll never look back.
- Altrec Outlet refers to the men's version
Two feet of fresh have already fallen, and you're first in line to put the hammer down with Rossignol's S7 Ski. Thanks to its rockered tip and tail and regular camber underfoot, you're able to drop into a powder-filled chute, grab a few face shots, straightline out, and head to your favorite pillow line for some fun. To ensure a lively ride, Rossignol equipped the S7 with a wood core, while a carbon laminate helps absorb vibrations and dampen this hard-charging, powder-loving ski.
- Backcountry.com refers to the men's version
The most imitated powder ski in the industry, the S7, paved the way for the rocker with camber revolution. Featuring an award-winning blend of versatility and float, the S7 brings the surfy playfulness of powder skiing to hard-chargers and intermediates alike. Powder Turn Rocker delivers fatigue-free manueverability, effortless steering and instant speed control, making powder skiing easier and more fun. Centered Sidecut provides the all-terrain versatility and edging power simply not found in other wide-waisted, rockered skis. Leave your mark with the S7; the original game-changing powder ski.90% Powder / 10% All-MountainSpecs:Lengths available: 178cm, 188 cmDimensions: 178cm- 140-110-118mm; 188cm- 145-115-123mmRadius: 178cm- 14.8m; 188cm- 17.5mWeight per pair: 178cm- 9lb(4.1kg); 188cm- 10lb 8 oz (4.8kg)
- Second Ascent refers to the men's version
Rossignol's S7 utilizes Powder Turn rocker which combines low camber underfoot with high tip and tail rocker. Powder Turn rocker provides amazing floatation, tracking and an efficient angle of attack that gives skiers effortless steering and instant speed control. Rossignol's S7 delivers more maneuverability, forgiveness and fun than any other powder ski on the market. Rossignol has created the perfect powder tool for the wide range of skiers who all have a fetish for skiing the deep.90% Powder / 10% PisteRB: FKS 140 XXL / Axial2 140 XXL
- CampSaver.com refers to the men's version
Rossignol S7
previously retailed for:
$399.95 - $699.95
$399.95 - $699.95
The Rossignol S7 is not available from the stores we monitor. It was last seen April 15, 2014 at Backcountry.com.


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Almost every idea I have for my home is opposed by my husband when I first mention it. It's not that he isn't a nice guy; it's just in his blood. Jared (along with his dad, and probably his brothers) just doesn't care for change. In fact, Ivy has started to repeat things he says, like "Mommy, how come you always want to change everything?"
However, once I actually go ahead and bring the idea to life, he almost always loves it too. Except . . .
. . . these yellow lamps. He hated them to begin with and I realized he always will. And even I had to agree that they were probably a bit too "modern industrial" for our house (although I love that look in other people's spaces). Also, they kind of disappeared against the wall, drawing too much attention the shades themselves. I looked around for other lamps and couldn't bring myself to spend the money, so I decided I'd try to work with them.
I'd seen several DIY rope lamps around and thought that could be a good option. Most of them are a solid frame with jute rope or twine glued around them, but I saw a few from retailers that clearly started out with a wire frame similar to my lamps.
|Bimini pendant from Anthropologie
|Mini jute pendant from Horchow
|Rope wrapped lamp base from Target
I got two packages of jute rope from Hobby Lobby for about $3 each.
I snuck a wooden block from my kids and used that to wrap the rope around in segments. Every time I started or ended a piece of rope, I just tied it so the knot was facing the inside of the lamp.
I'm not gonna lie. This was teeeedious. It took a lot longer than I expected, but luckily, it was easy and pretty mindless. Just make sure you have something to entertain you or you will suffer certain death--okay, boredom, but that might actually be worse.
I alternated whether the rope was over or under the frame in a few parts, as you can see in the pictures. I think this helped break it up a little and was more interesting than all one way.
Here's the shot of both lamps before:
And now:
Verdict: Jared doesn't hate them anymore. I'm still not sure he loves them, but he hasn't complained since I did this, so that's progress. It was nice to only spend about $6 to completely make over two lamps that were only $25 each in the first place, including the shades.
Do you prefer the before or after? (If the answer is neither, that's okay too). And I realize that most people would style the space between the lamps with accessories, but I guess that's where my desire for minimalism comes in. I'm constantly trying to balance style with practicality, and I try not to have too much of anything, especially if it isn't useful.


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As part of our ongoing commitment to the Waitrose Way and treating people fairly, Waitrose is proud to support the work of the Fairtrade Foundation; promoting sustainable development in communities around the world.
We sell a range of own-label and branded Fairtrade products in our stores, all of which have been purchased under Fairtrade terms and promote decent working conditions through positive trading relationships.
Our Fairtrade Partnership
In 2015, Waitrose announced a groundbreaking partnership with the Fairtrade Foundation, a move which establishes a new way for the two organisations to work together. As well as selling a wide range of Fairtrade products, Waitrose is working on a range of projects in communities to address systemic issues such as living wage and climate change as well as being supported to understand and improve the impact it is having through the Waitrose Foundation. Through this partnership we want to increase the positive social impact we have for workers around the world.
What are Fairtrade terms?
For most Fairtrade goods a minimum price is set to cover the cost of sustainable production. This stable income allows farmers to plan for their future.
There is also the Fairtrade premium which is an additional sum of money paid to workers and farmers to be spent on improving social, economic and environmental conditions in the best way possible.
Learn about how Waitrose supports Fairtrade, the products themselves, and the impact that Fairtrade provides to communities all over the world
Leading the way
In 2007 we became the first supermarket in the UK to sell Fairtrade bananas exclusively. This was a natural move for us to make, building on the long-term relationships we have with our banana producers and as a result of the move, the number of ethically sourced bananas in the UK increased by 10%.
Watch Nick Hewer travel with the Fairtrade Foundation to St. Lucia, where he met Waitrose Banana producers
Delicious Fairtrade inspired recipes


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NCIS: Los Angeles Promo: Where is Hetty?Steve Marsi at . Comments
This week on NCIS: Los Angeles, after a Navy SEAL impostor is set ablaze, the team obtains new information regarding the whereabouts of the stolen Brachytherapy canister.
That means the race is on to stop a dirty bomb from being in play.
Also, in a surprising development, Hetty tenders her resignation. It's not clear why, or whether she will be gone for good. But Claire Forlani makes her debut Tuesday night.
Check out the official preview for "Impostors" below ...
It sounds like the twists coming at the end of NCIS: LA's second season are shocking the cast as well as the viewers. Says Eric Christian Olsen (Deeks) of the next two weeks:
"I remember reading this script in the hair and makeup trailer, and getting to the end of it, and I literally jumped out of my seat, ran outside, and I was like, 'What? What?!'""[I started] looking for a producer or someone to tell me what was going on. That's what's so much fun about this, is that these guys are telling stories over 100 episodes."
"We get it as the audience gets it, and I still get tons of adrenaline."
Daniela Ruah (Kensi) agrees: "I think followers of this show will definitely be having panic attacks, and will be looking forward to season 3 to know what the result is."
What do you think? Will Linda Hunt be back on NCIS: Los Angeles next season, and what other surprises await us as we head into tomorrow and next week's finale?
Steve Marsi is the Managing Editor of TV Fanatic. Follow him on Google+ or email him here.


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Autism is a developmental disorder. This means there is a problem with how the brain develops. Autism affects learning and behavior related to social contact and communication. People with autism have a hard time expressing themselves. They have trouble interacting with others too. Roughly 2 to 6 children out of 1,000 in the United States are born with autism. This means about 1.5 million Americans have some form of autism. It affects boys more often than girls. And it occurs all over the world in people of all races, whether rich or poor.
Autism is defined by a set of behaviors. They are typically seen before 3 years of age and sometimes as early as 18 months. People can have a mix of these behaviors. They fall in a range from mild to moderate to severe.
People with autism may have the following traits:
People with autism learn and behave differently from each other. Their abilities and personalities vary a lot. They may be very smart or slow learners. Some may talk clearly, while others may not speak at all. Some can run fast and jump high, and others may have a hard time using a pen. Some show aggression toward others or toward themselves, even hurting themselves. Some people with autism may walk on their toes like a ballet dancer. A common trait is trouble starting or keeping up conversations.
Children with autism begin to show symptoms by 18 months of age. Parents and experts may see symptoms before this time. But a child is diagnosed when he or she shows a delay in language skills. So, most children aren't diagnosed until 2 or 3 years of age.
An evaluation is done to check for autism. A team of mental health professionals helps make the diagnosis.
A child should be checked for autism right away if he or she has any of these symptoms:
There are many ways to work with and treat people with autism. Because no two people have the same mix of symptoms, treatment is tailored to the individual. The most effective treatments are based on providing behavior support. They are designed to help a person with autism lead as full a life as possible. Some people also benefit from medicine.
Here are some methods that have proved helpful for people with autism:
Evaluations, treatment, and other services are offered through the UPMC Behavioral Health Network. To find out more or to make an appointment, call toll-free 1-877-624-4100.
For more information on autism, visit these websites:
Affiliated with the University of Pittsburgh Schools of the Health Sciences
| Supplemental content provided by Healthwise, Incorporated. To learn more, visit www.healthwise.org
For help in finding a doctor or health service that suits your needs, call the UPMC Referral Service at 412-647-UPMC (8762) or 1-800-533-UPMC (8762). Select option 1.
UPMC is an equal opportunity employer. UPMC policy prohibits discrimination or harassment on the basis of race, color, religion, ancestry, national origin, age, sex, genetics, sexual orientation, gender identity, marital status, familial status, disability, veteran status, or any other legally protected group status. Further, UPMC will continue to support and promote equal employment opportunity, human dignity, and racial, ethnic, and cultural diversity. This policy applies to admissions, employment, and access to and treatment in UPMC programs and activities. This commitment is made by UPMC in accordance with federal, state, and/or local laws and regulations.
Medical information made available on UPMC.com is not intended to be used as a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. You should not rely entirely on this information for your health care needs. Ask your own doctor or health care provider any specific medical questions that you have. Further, UPMC.com is not a tool to be used in the case of an emergency. If an emergency arises, you should seek appropriate emergency medical services.
Pittsburgh, PA, USA | UPMC.com


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TITLE: Executive VP and g.m.
LEADERSHIP: Feldman joined Fox's international division in 1995, and presides over an operation that's the leader in market share (14%) through 2007's third quarter, according to Media Control GfK.
This is largely due to having a tremendous slate of international box office hits, including "The Devil Wears Prada," "Night at the Museum," "Borat" and "Live Free or Die Hard" — the latter of which grossed more than $247 million in foreign coin.
Market infiltration has helped, too. Fox has established dedicated operating companies in all of the top 10 territories across Europe, Asia and Latin America, with Western Europe, with Japan and Australia being the strongest markets.
Meanwhile, under the guidance of recently appointed senior VP of emerging markets Gary Ferguson, Fox has even made inroads into Russia, notably managing to ship 1 million copies of "Live Free or Die Hard" in the territory.
POV: "We're a company committed to growth, so our focus (is) on delivering against that objective in a complex and dynamic market environment. This can only be achieved through the relentless pursuit of new business models in emerging and developing markets; elevated consumer and retailer engagement with the next generation of DVD; continued creativity and innovation in exploiting our library on DVD; and by nurturing and enhancing our strategic partnerships with local producers and distributors."


text:
- Game Details
- News (13)
- Review
- Previews (2)
- Videos (5)
- Images
- Cheats & Walkthroughs
EA Registers "Darkspore" Spore Sequel?
EA has filed a trio of trademarks for "Darkspore" (discovered by superannuation) in connection with "computer game software;...
'Fallout 3' Wins Game Developers Choice Award
Fallout 3 was honored with the coveted Game of the Year award at the Game Developers Choice Awards held last night in San Francisco. Bethesda's...
'Spore' Expansion Coming June 23rd
Electronic Arts has confirmed the release date of the first downloadable content for sandbox/strategy game Spore. "Galactic Adventures"...
Contest Searching For Spore Applications
Hey, are you an aspiring developer? Do you want to develop a Spore widget or application? We have an opportunity for you: The Spore API contest....
'Spore' Creatures With Anti-DRM Slant
Spore, Will Wright's universe simulator, is quickly becoming the darling of the techy/nerd/gamer set, but it's being dealt some vicious backlash by...
'Spore' Producer Interview
'Spore' Producer Interview
Video Preview
Spore Producer Interview
Executive Producer Lucy Bradshaw talks to G4tv about the highly anticipated Spore from EA Maxis. The life-simulator is scheduled to be released for the PC on September 7th, 2008.
My X-Play 1000Th Episode PosterLatest Post: Mar 18, 2013 by Smashdrama
I Can't Believe It's Come To This.Latest Post: Mar 18, 2013 by Shadow_ben_jamin
Anime Corner Farewell Tour! March...Latest Post: Mar 18, 2013 by Squeakachu31


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On the evening of 23 May, about 150 people displaced by xenophobic violence gathered outside Caledon Square, Cape Town's main police station. They have two demands: (1) they need shelter and protection in the CBD area (or surrounding suburbs) and (2) they want the United Nations to assist most of them to return to their home country or repatriate to a third country.
For four nights they stayed at Herzlia Weizmann School before funding was raised to shelter them for a week. As of Sunday evening 8 June it is not clear where the Caledon Square displaced people will be able to stay. Premier Rasool and Mayor Zille have not given any indication of how they will help them. Consequently parents, learners and friends of Herzlia Weizmann School have sent the following petition to the mayor and the premier:
Dear Premier Rasool and Mayor Zille
We are parents, learners and friends of Herzlia Weizmann School in Sea Point. We are providing shelter until Sunday afternoon 1 June in our school hall to about 150 people displaced by xenophobic violence in Cape Town. Some of us have met this group. We are in awe of their dignity. They have said they will leave our hall by 5pm on Sunday night because that is what we agreed with them. They have also said they will not leave the CBD area and will sleep outside if there is no accommodation. They will not separate as a group. They have leadership and are organised. Among them are business people and a published writer. Nearly all work and all try to work. At all times they have acted peacefully, despite the dreadful deeds that have been perpetrated against them.
We believe this group of people, nearly all immigrants to our country, are an essential part of the cosmopolitan life of Cape Town. They have been wronged. We as a city and a province have a duty to right those wrongs and to help them reintegrate into our city. We have a duty to grant their reasonable demand that they be given shelter in the area. We have to go the extra mile. If their wish is not granted and they are left with no option but to go to one of the camps established by the city, it is a victory for xenophobia.
We call on you to open a venue in the CBD (or Atlantic Seaboard), such as the Sea Point Civic Centre or Good Hope Centre. As a community we have contributed to the relief of the displaced people and we commit to continue doing this.