text:
The Mid Mon Valley Cultural Trust , MMVCT, and has been in existence since 1999. The 2017 Art Competition was our first project as we began a new chapter in our organization. Community Bank partnered with us to publish winners from our Art Competition in a box of cards and enabled us to donate a portion of the proceeds of sold cards to our local libraries. It has been a great beginning to bring cultural events to the Mon Valley area and supporting our local libraries too.
This year the Trust sponsored a successful Red Carpet Oscar Nominated Shorts event in partnership with Douglas Education Center. Our Board of Directors will continue to seek partnering with local businesses and organizations to bring more events and opportunities for Mon Valley residents to experience.
The 2018 MMVCT 2nd Annual Art Competition will include local photographers as well as artists this year. Selected entries will be published this year in a box of postcards.
Go to information pages to enter this event and download the entry form.
There are only 10 boxes of cards left from the 2017 Art Competition!
To purchase contact the California Public Library or order here.
July 1
announcing winners of the 2018 Art/Photography Competition at
Mon Valley Country Club!
Click below for
2018 Art/Photography Competition Extended to June 16!
Mid Mon Valley Cultural Trust
MMVCT 2nd Annual Art Competition is here with two categories!
"My Favorite Things"
Original Art and Photography
go to
Events for information
Mid Mon Valley Cultural Trust
GO To 2017 Art Competition Entries
to see the Age Category
People's Choice winners!


text:
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Schools & Colleges
Download Directions
Download Parking Map
MAVRC Office:
Academic Office 1, Suite 7408
Dr. Edward Janoff's Office:
Research Bldg 2, Room 11012
MAVRC Research Lab:
Research Bldg 2, Room 11400
From the Airport:
Ø Take Pena Boulevard South until it runs into I-70; head West.
Ø Almost immediately, the road forks (left) for I-225 South.
Ø Take I-225 South about 1 mile to the first exit, E. Colfax Avenue.
Ø Go right (West) on E. Colfax Avenue. You will pass the University Physicians building, Children's Hospital and University Hospital on your right.
Ø Turn right at the traffic signal onto Quentin Street (last street before Peoria Street) to enter the campus.
Ø Proceed straight ahead (North) on Quentin Street and make a right at the 3rd stop sign. The name of the street is E. 17th Place (one street North of E. 17th Avenue).
Park in the Cheyenne Wells parking lot located straight ahead and directly behind a parking garage. Pay $1/hour for parking at the kiosk and leave your parking receipt on your dashboard.
From Downtown Denver:
Ø Take Colfax Avenue East for about 10 miles. Turn left on Quentin Street to enter the University of Colorado Denver campus. Quentin Street is the first street/traffic light after Peoria.
From the 9th Ave UC Denver Campus:
Ø Go North on Colorado Boulevard about a half mile to Colfax Avenue.
Ø Turn right (East) and travel ~5 miles to Quentin Street, the first street past Peoria and just before I-225.
Ø Turn left (North) at the traffic signal onto Quentin Street (last street before Peoria Street) to enter the campus.
From the North:
Ø Take I-25 South to I-70 East to I-225 South and follow the instructions from the airport (above).
Ø Alternatively, go South on I-25 until the Colfax exit. Turn East (left) onto Colfax and follow the directions from downtown (above).
From the South:
Ø The directions are the same as from the North (above), except you are headed North on I-25.
Ø Alternatively, take I-25 North to I-225 North to the Colfax exit, turn left (West) and follow the instructions from the airport (above).
12631 East 17th Avenue, Suite 7408 • Mail Stop 8205 • Aurora, CO 80045
Program Administrator: Carola Hagenau Phone: 303-724-8499 • Fax: 303-724-0802 • E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com
http://ucdenver.edu/MAVRC • Directions • Visitor Parking Map Executive Director: Edward N. Janoff, MD
© The Regents of the University of Colorado, a body corporate. All rights reserved.
Accredited by the Higher Learning Commission. All trademarks are registered property of the University. Used by permission only.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Skaha Lake today was mostly calm. With a temp of about 0c. After a week of snow and overcast skies it was nice to see. I paddled solo on the North end of the lake today. The sky as you can see was awesome, the blue sky was too inviting to pass up.
LogDate: 1/11/2013
More at: http://www.KAYAKokanagan.com http://www.GuyThaLizard.com


text:
Definition of excogitation
n. - The act of excogitating; a devising in the thoughts; invention; contrivance. 2
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s - excogitations
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text:
195. Could I welcome you to the second part
of our sessions on the departmental estimates. I must apologise
to you that, at about 11.30, I have to leave because of a hospital
appointment, so Gwyneth Dunwoody will take over at that point.
Would you identify yourself for the record, please.
(Mr Raynsford) I am Nick Raynsford, Minister
for Local Government and the Regions in the Department of Transport
Local Government and the Regions and the only Minister who was
serving in the old DETR whose annual report you are considering.
196. Is there anything else that you want to
say by way of introduction or are you happy for us to go straight
into questions?
(Mr Raynsford) I am happy to go straight into questions.
197. Which government department and which minister
is really responsible for the regions?
(Mr Raynsford) The framework for developing regional
policy places the overall responsibility with the Deputy Prime
Minister and he is working in very close co-operation with our
department in order to produce a White Paper which we intend to
publish in the early part of next year and that will be presented
to Parliament by the Deputy Prime Minister with the full support
of the Secretary for Transport Local Government and the Regions.
198. Before we come on to ask questions about
that, would you answer the question that I put to you which is,
who is actually responsible for the regions? Before we have the
White Paper there are still regions, so who is actually in charge
of what happens to the regions or is there nobody?
(Mr Raynsford) Inevitably there are different perspectives
throughout government, but we accept a collective responsibility
in terms of the development of regional policy and that is the
framework that I have already outlined.
199. When you talk of collective responsibility
for regional development, you are not pointing to any individual
or any department. Is there anybody in government who is responsible
for looking at issues like disparity between regions, how regional
policy, or lack of it, is affecting services or the welfare of
different regions? Is there anybody who actually has a remit for
the regions?
(Mr Raynsford) As I said in response to the earlier
question, there are different perspectives. On your specific point
about regional economic disparities, the DTI would obviously take
a lead role. They have responsibility currently for regional development
agencies which used to lie with our department but, as Minister
for the Regions, I clearly have a very real interest in issues
such as the one you have discussed, and the wider framework of
regional governance, both now and the future pattern of regional
governance which we will propose in our forthcoming White Paper.


text:
Perelman Decries Morgan Stanley Appeal
In a brief filed with the Florida court, Perelman applauded the judge's decision to impose the steep sanctions on the bank. He said that the court correctly applied Florida law and that neither the ruling nor the monetary penalty was excessive.
Perelman, the billionaire chairman of Revlon Inc., was awarded $604.3 million in compensation and $850 million in...
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text:
Attending: Kevin Mulcahy, Ryan Womack,
Ferris Olin, Nancy Putnam, Jackie
Markdikian, RyokoToyama, Pat Piermatti, Susan Goodman, Howard Dess,
Adeline Tallau, Stan Nash, Martin Kesselman, Benjamin R. Beede,
Rebecca Gardner, Myoung C. Wilson, Brian Hancock, Ron Jantz,
Lourdes Vasquez, Nelson Chou, Linda Langschied, Joe Consoli,
Ellen Calhoun, Thelma Tate, Emily Fabiano, Mary Fetzer (Chair)
1. Approval of minutes, June 18 meeting. Approved with correction:
Rusak was inadvertently left out of list of attendees.
2. Director's Report. Ryoko Toyama thanked those who had submitted
their annual reports, and encouraged the rest to do so as soon as possible.
She reminded the group that these reports are useful for FASIP applications.
3. Meeting Dates/Locations(Mary Fetzer).
Scheduled meeting dates for the forthcoming semester are: 8/20, 9/17, 10/15,4. Position Vacancies.
11/19, 12/17. Discussion about where to hold the meetings ensued, with the
group voting to meet at Alexander unless otherwise notified.
Kevin Mulcahy reported on the recent Librarian V searches: Stephanie Bartz5. Assessing/Refining NB Information Services.
will move into an annually renewable Librarian V line at Alexander Library;
Emily Carey will become Librarian V at Kilmer Library. They were selected
from a pool of over a dozen candidates. Myoung Wilson reported that she will
chair the search committee for a History/Political Science position, which will
also cover Jewish Studies. Committee members are: Joe Consoli, Mary Fetzer,
Dennis Bathory (Pol. Sci.) and Paul Clemens (History).
5A. Year's Review (Myoung Wilson). Myoung thanked the team6. Goals (Myoung Wilson)
leaders for their various accomplishments, particularly that of establishing
an organizational framework for NBIS activities. This framework will
continue to evolve in the coming year. She identified the Centralized
Telephone and Training Team activities as the two areas from last year
that require follow-up.
5B. NB Centralized Telephone Reference Service (Pat Piermatti).
Pat distributed a draft report of the NBCT Team progress, thanking the
Team (Ben Beede, Linda Langschied, Ilona Caparros, Emily Fabiano,
Lynn Mullen, Lisa Vecchioli) for their work over the past few years. The
service is not ready to go largely because of the problems in coordinating
technology meetings with RUCS-Telecomm and Lucent. The service
will rely on upgrading some libraries' telephone systems; LSM has just
installed voice mail, for example. However, the fundamental plan is in
place, with the central phone number of 732-932-LIBS service as the
gateway for all NB telephone information service, with appropriate
referrals made from that point on. The implementation timetable is
estimated to be Fall 2000. The service will be housed at the Alexander
Library, building on the already established Information Desk service there.
5C. NB Training Issues (Jackie Mardikian). As past chair of the NB
ISG, Jackie thanked steering group members who worked very well as a
team: Ferris Olin, Pat Piermatti, Ilona Caparros, Ron Jantz and Ji Mi. She
also thanked the team members of the Training Team for their
participation. She reported that the primary accomplishment of the
Training Team is the authoring of the Informational Services Training
Guide. Given the apparent lack of interest of librarians in serving on this
team, the availability of other sources of certain kinds of training (e.g.
RUL Human Resources), and the unlikely prospects for coordinating
actual training across NB, Jackie questioned whether the Training Team
should continue to exist. Emily Fabiano proposed that should be
standardized is WHAT training takes place, not WHEN/WHERE training
occurs. Ryoko Toyama postulated that time spent attempting to coordinate
may thwart achieving a fast route to results. Linda Langschied concurred
with both notions, and recommended that the small group of librarians
who are responsible for training should work together to efficiently
institute an appropriate training process for Information Services
personnel. This could occur building on the foundation document
(Training Guide) developed by the Training Team, but does not
necessitate the continuation of the Training Team. Ultimately, the group
decided to support this approach, and recommended dissolving the
Training Team. Ferris Olin added that the Training Guide should be
reviewed every year for needed revisions. Myoung will present the
possibility of reconstituting the NBIS Steering Team.
6A. Myoung first clarified the organizational structure of NBThe group, through nominative process, elected to concentrate on the Information
Informational Services as:
Coordinating Team (current co-chairs Penny Page and Jeris Cassel)
Local operational liaisons are:
Alexander - Ilona Caparros
Douglass - Feris Olin
Kilmer - Jeris Cassel
Sci/Med - Scott Hines
Branches - Penny Page
Centralized Telephone Team (current chair: Pat Piermatti)
Technology Team (current chair: Marty Kesselman)
NB Collections: Ilona Caparros
NB Technology: Marty Kesselman
NB WAC: Ron Jantz
NB Instructional: Jeris Cassel
6B. Myoung distributed a list of proposed discussion topics for the coming year.
Many of the proposed topics were submitted by the Coordinating Team. Additionally,
the meeting attendees added items.
The resulting list of items proposed for discussion are:
Reference Statistics
NBL Information Services Mission Statement
Information Desk
Information Services Model
Quality, quantity & relationship of "Ask a Librarian" to on-site ref.
Quality of ILL/RRS (to be referred to NBCDG)
Remote user impact on e-mail & other technology, e.g. web services
Whom are we serving? - appropriate levels of service by user-type
Core competencies for librarians & other information personnel
Program development for NB undergraduates,grad students, faculty
Timeliness of postings for Library hours of services
Experimental approaches to reference, exp. through technology
The August 20 NBLF meeting may include a discussion of the position
description for
the vacant position at Kilmer; a demo of the CKDB; and a demonstration of LINUS.
The meeting ended with applause for Mary Fetzer who, in her first meeting
as NB
Faculty Coordinator, ran a cohesive meeting that ended on time.
Respectfully Submitted,
Linda Langschied


text:
Vigilance is the key.
The I-Watch program, started on post in 2010, encourages ordinary citizens to be on the lookout for anything out of the norm.
"I-Watch is the Army's campaign to enhance terrorism awareness — encourage community members to help out leaders by identifying any type of behavior out there that may suggest terrorist activity," said Kevin Clarke, chief of police for the Directorate of Emergency Services.
It could be a suspicious individual, package or vehicle, said Sean Drury, antiterrorism specialist on Fort Benning.
Drury gave examples such as someone wearing bulky clothing in warm weather, a vehicle parked in an unusual place for a prolonged period of time, an unattended bag in a parking lot or a strange chemical smell.
"It's just simple observation," he said. "If you see something, say something. Everyone's a sensor."
Drury said a large part of the program is awareness, so I-Watch posters are displayed in several places on post where the public can learn how to become a sensor. The posters are typically on display in areas with high traffic, such as the PX, schools, hospital, entertainment venues or bank — places where because of the high volume of people, citizens should be particularly on alert, Drury said.
"We try to educate the community," he said. "A community is only as strong as its people."
While I-Watch falls under the Antiterrorism Force Protection program, a similar program, translated for the needs of a family neighborhood, falls under DES.
The Neighborhood Crime Watch is modeled after the traditional police community watch programs of old, Clarke said.
"Historically, we've tried to set up neighborhood crime watches (as) a dedicated group of citizens or residents who come together and they talk about things that are problematic and they watch for suspicious activity," he said. "What we're doing is we're getting more eyes on the problems. You're not necessarily seeing a crime, but you may be seeing something that looks out of place. It opens that avenue for residents to call the police in a non-emergency situation."
The program, currently active in McGraw Village, is available for any community on post. In McGraw, one resident, Danielle Hinkkanen, serves as the cyberwatch coordinator for a website where residents can post anonymous information on suspicious activity in the neighborhood.
"Her efforts have been nothing short of incredible," Clarke said. "Since she's taken on this task, she's been communicating with us daily and providing useful intelligence. By keeping her informed, she's been able to explain what's happening to some of the concerned residents."
The web group is ideal, Clarke said, since many families don't have time for in-person meetings. It's provided more useful information in its two weeks of operations than has been reported in a single year in the past, he said.
"All they have to do is look out the window," Clarke said. "Don't go out there and engage somebody physically or verbally. Just call us and we'll get the first available patrol en route and let them interact with them."
For both I-Watch and the Neighborhood Crime Watch, signs and posters as well as active participation can be deterrents for crime.
"The best defense is an active offense and an active offense is people out there who report this stuff," Clarke said. "Bottom line is — when people are concerned with something call the police."
If a Soldier or civilian on post sees something suspicious — whether it suggests terrorist or criminal activity — should call the Military Police at 706-545-5222 or 706-545-2222. They can also call 911.


text: Why: Just being Jodie Foster — one of the few to grow up in front of the camera and not be permanently scarred — means she's always in contention, but "The Brave One" received mixed reviews that might work against her. It's a gutsy performance, one that carries the weight of the film. In a wide-open lead actress race — as opposed to last year's coronation — it would be foolish to bet against her.


text:
Author, Andrew Sheldon
Global Mining Investing is a reference eBook to teach investors how to think and act as investors with a underlying theme of managing risk. The book touches on a huge amount of content which heavily relies on knowledge that can only be obtained through experience...The text was engaging, as I knew the valuable outcome was to be a better thinker and investor.
While some books (such as Coulson's An Insider's Guide to the Mining Sector) focus on one particular commodity this book (Global Mining Investing) attempts (and does well) to cover all types of mining and commodities.
Global Mining Investing - see store
Click here for the Book Review Visit Mining Stocks
Sunday, December 02, 2007
A sign of China's ascension to global supremacy – NOT!
The article says that "China may in the end be the biggest winners from the credit crisis". Take it as fact – no one benefits from a credit crisis, unless you are talking about the opportunists who buy up cheap assets in the aftermath. Yet this article would suggest that Chinese central bankers are astute investors by assembling a cash reserve of $US1.3 trillion at a time of financial crisis. But consider this – they have been assembling this reserve for the last decade, earning on average 2% and to top it off, they are over-exposed to a falling currency. In the same 10 year period US fund managers have been earning 20% on global equities, including China's.
Notwithstanding that its nice to have a pile of cash at a time of currency, most central banks have a diversified portfolio. Any hint that China was going to sell its portfolio of US bonds would precipitate a collapse in bond prices. So far from being an opportunity, its really a prison sentence. The idea that this decision has "hasten the transfer of economic power from Europe and the US to Asia", the reality is that it has slowed it. China's savings are under-invested.
Having said that, there is no question that China is a force to be reckoned with. Not because of its astute investing, but rather because it's a huge population of poor people, with a pretty good worth ethic. China set its strategy more than a decade ago, so you can't argue its astute for cashing up for the 'sub-prime crisis' because the strategy predates it. You can't even argue that China "has deliberately insulated itself against the boom and bust cycles of the capitalist West by building up the greatest cash fortune ever assembled" because it has participated in the boom in 2 respects:
1. Chinese investors are even more exposed to the property market because of the huge gains there. The difference of course is that relatively few Chinese can afford property, and that property fundamentals are stronger there, but I doubt they are secure from falling housing prices and higher interest rates, particularly since currently rates are subsidized.
2. Chinese people are exposed to the US property market through its export-orientated economy. The final demand for a lot of Chinese-made products is the USA and the EU, which is now impacted by weak Asian currencies.
The truth is that China is challenging the USA and EU but only by virtue of its cheap labour. Strangely it not the Chinese singing the praises of China, it's the western media. It reminds me of the Cold War, when Russia was built up as a threat to western supremacy. The greenhouse issue has a similar stench attached to it. A stench that sells newspapers, creates fear, creates a story.
China will benefit from an market correction not because of its huge cash reserves, but because it has amongst the lowest unit labour costs in the world. When excess capacity is being closed, Chinese capacity will be amongst the capacity remaining open. But don't forget – all remaining capacity (including the Chinese) will suffer the impact of subdued demand. All factories will experience lower prices, low profits. In fact the event might even force the Chinese government to end its support of the USD.
If the Chinese were canny investors they would have invested in global resource companies about a decade ago, and precious metals at least 5 years ago. On the contrary it has just started doing that. That is despite western media talking up the opportunities in resources for 2 decades. The ascension of China and India was predicated on their liberalization. It has a simple law of cause and effect. So there is nothing new in the idea that Asia has growing prosperity, and thus growing influence in global politics.
Yet if you listen to the Telgegraph, they make it sound like China is engaged in a clandestine act to take over the world. Makes you wonder whether the western media functions as the Dept of Western Propaganda. If you want a conspiracy theory, I would see more merit in that. We often hear that China is the 'bad guy' for buying USD, but the reality is that the US government wouldn't have it any other way. They afterall want their deficit funded, and the presence of Chinese money keeps US debt cheap and available in abundance.
The reason why China had little exposure to the 'sub prime crisis' was because the $1.3 trillion is forex reserves, which are invested in highly liquid assets, not commercial debt, so no surprise that the Chinese didn't invest there, no central bank does. It was only recently that Chinese fund managers (insurance companies) have been allowed to invest abroad. So there was little opportunity if they even wanted to.
The suggestion that "China's capital walls had largely insulated the country's banking sector from the crises elsewhere" is also not true, it was their well-understood lack of exposure. And the fact remains that China is still part of the global economy exposed to lower prices.
Even the suggestion that "we have seen a flight [of money] to East Asia in recent months" is incorrect because it suggests that Asia remains a bastion of strength. Funds will return to East Asia because the Japanese carry trade is being wound back by rising credit spreads. That is why the Japanese currency is stronger, but the rest of Asia, not particularly strong. Where it is strong, it has more to do with the weak USD.
It is true that the Asian debt crisis in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea was precipitated by high debts and inadequate forex reserves, but that has not been the rationale for the build up in China's US treasury holdings. Certainly China is stronger today because it always had the stronger fundamentals, but then Indonesia, Vietnam and India are stronger still.
The notion that China having the world's biggest company PetroChina, is some sort of symbol of China's ascension is folly, as really the fact that these developing countries have such big coporations is really a legacy of their government-sponsored monopoly policy, thus they are more a legacy of old, rather than new.
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Equities in recovery
Now if we anticipate the DJIA to present good buying opportunities late in overnight trading, then we really need to be buying Australian equities today. The market has already opened higher, and I think like these buyers we should be taking our lead before the DJIA gives us the confidence that will die after opening tomorrow. The best stocks to buy are metals - gold and others severely cut down by offshore selling in recent weeks as metal prices and the Australia dollar came under pressure. As we can see the Australian All Ordinaries Index has hardly changed direction in the recent profit-taking, so there is still alot of confidence in the Australian market.
Tuesday, October 09, 2007
Dow rally signals buy!
Monday, October 01, 2007
Dow strikes new high!
I dont see Americans supporting the property market just because the Fed is lower rates, or at least paused for it. There is a market overhang, a very real threat of inflation, and this market is slowing. I would be staying in gold and cash, though with copper at $3.72/lb, i am holding Matrix Metals, though it concerns me that they have not moved up yet. Am I being impatient again, or is the market worried about lower prices. Copper prices would have to fall $1/lb before this stock would be bad buying. Its a great story.
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Markets due for correction
Looking at the chart above we can see that the Dow is just off its previous highs, and seems somewhat reluctant to advance. The ASX below has already reached its previous all-time high, but it too seems to be marking time, as it waits for direction from the US market.
Based on these charts today was a good day to sell down your stocks until the market sets its direction. Of course such charts only provide an average guide of market direction, and one can expect the gold sector to respond better, although it will not be completely protected from any fall.
Sunday, September 02, 2007
Another sell opportunity
1. Interest rates will rise further - squeezing even more households
2. Not all sellers will be defaulters - but investors
3. We are looking at a recession - which means job losses
4. No matter what is negotiated, you can be assured the government is going to give defaulters just enough security to retain their homes, but thats not going to give them the confidence to keep spending.
5. There are still alot of 'no doc' loans which will be resetting at higher (+30%) interest rates over the next 18 months.
Thats all depressing news for the market and the domestic sector accounts for 60% of US consumption expenditure, so expect these factors to be a significant drag on business spending. The global economy remains strong...but for how much longer?
I still remain negative. The Dow was up 113 points on Friday, but that is a daily move inspired by Bush's mortagee support and Bernacke's 'dovish' comments about monetary policy. I still think the Fed is not going to raise rates. I think they want asset prices to cool to take inflationary pressures out of the market. Paradoxically that only happens if debt is liquidated - whether by default (in the housing sector) or higher interest rates parring back business loans or leveraged investments.
Technically the charts are telling us the same. The Dow went as high as 13,428 pts before it fell back to 13,357 points on Friday. Importantly, although it breached the previous high of 13,387 points, the market closed below this important resistance. Given that half of the gains were parred back, and the Dow closed below its resistance, I think we can expect the market to fall off big time on Tuesday (after a Monday Labor Day Holiday). So today and tomorrow are sell opportunities.
For this reason, I favour sitting on cash...at least until we get confirmation of market direction from the Fed and US government. I can't quantify the extent of the falls on Tuesday, but I suspect the Dow will fall be over 350 points. Basically I think the market will come to regard Bernacke's lack of disclosure as a 'market risk', even though he is actually trying to give the market some hope of a cut. This supports his desire for a 'smooth ride' but I think the markets will gradually anticipate his position.
I will offer some stock selections after the market confirms a trend or as soon as I take a position.
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Is there going to be a rate cut?
I frankly doubt the Fed is considering such an easy monetary policy. Certainly such cuts would reduce borrowing costs for consumers and businesses and mitigate the payment shock faced by 2 million mortgage holders as their adjustable rate mortgages reset in coming months. But since when does the Fed act as a welfare agency? Consider the Fed response to the collapse of the Thai baht in 1997 that was the beginning of the Asian financial crisis. It took the Fed more than a year to respond with a rate cut in Sept'98. Alot of investors suffered in the meantime. People might argue that this was an Asian crisis, but the reality is that the Fed policy is to preserve 'sustained growth' and to do that it needs to consider the inflation consequences of its policy.
Yahoo also suggests "The Fed is seen as having the leeway to cut interest rates because inflation is easing". But the implication that inflation is a 'product demand' phenomena is wrong - its a monetary demand phenomena. Excessive growth in money supply relative to the productive capacity spells inflation in at least some segments of the market. The reason food prices were not running away in recent years whilst money supply was increasing is because financial assets like shares and property were growing appreciably. Now asset prices are falling, that liquidity has to go somewhere. Well we are not going to eat more because of falling house prices. But there will be a slowdown in investment, so wasted financial resources means economic stagnation while prices increase.
It seems more likely to conclude that the Fed on Aug. 17 was merely calming financial markets when it said the "downside risks to growth have increased appreciably". Some market pundits seem to be interpreting this as justification for a rate cut - that the Fed is now more worried about weak growth than inflation.
Concluding, I dont expect a cut in the Fed Funds Rate on Sept 18th 2007. Tomorrow I suspect Ben Bernacke might even correct the perception somewhat. So I expect a weak market next week (1st week Sept'07).
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Day to sell!
I also dont think the Fed will lower interest rates because of a fear of inflation, or if they do it will be just 0.25%. The reason I expect no increase is because they didnt do it when it counted most, so why would they do it later. The Fed never cared about asset prices on the upside, why are they going to care on the downside. Its not going to support the already falling housing market, it would support higher consumer prices (meaning inflation), so they are not going to lower rates...I
So I believe the market is going down. The question is - will it make new lows, or just return to its previous low at 12,800 points. The media would have us believe that market PERs are reasonable, but there is going to be alot of downgrading to those revenue models given the evaporating consumer confidence, so at the very least there is reason for weakness. But I think it will take bad inflation figures or a financial failure to get the market to fall to around 11600-11800 level, or a recession, but a recession will take time to unfold. A financial collapse of a hedge fund will unravel the market. The Fed can boost the liquidity of the banking system, starving off a run on banks, but it cannot raise investor or consumer confidence without lowering interest rates...and I doubt that will happen.
Monday, August 27, 2007
Moment of truth for Dow, All Ords
Looking first at the Dow, its apparent to me that the index is at a critical point where it could go either way. It might shrug off the negative news in the housing sector. At this point in time 2AM Eastern Standard Time (Sydney) the US market is down 44points, though it appears to be holding.
The ASX is at a similar turning point with the index surging over the last week to over 6200 points, not far off its high of around 6400 points. I personally dont see the ASX breaking its current resistance, even though the index finished just off its daily high. I think the index will face selling tomorrow, but I will wait for direction from the market because there are alot of 'political wills' that want this market to go higher. Notwithstanding the uncertainty, the volatility is making great trading conditions.
The gold index is poised for similar direction from the markets. We are still waiting for a break out on the up or downside. I actually think gold will fall off, along with equity markets, with $US550/oz my target.
We might know if I am wrong or right tomorrow, but it might otherwise take a day or two.
Friday, August 24, 2007
Given that this was a financial (sub-prime) crisis you might have expected the losses to have been largely restricted to the financial sector. But it was not just a case of investors worrying about non-disclosed non-performing loans, the sell-off reflected a deeper problem.
The rationale for the equity sell off
The rationale for the sell off lies in the nature of the crisis itself. The panic arose when the sub-prime mortgage-backed security holders realised that they couldn't sell or price their exposure in the market so that they could sell them. This forced these investors to raise capital, and by the time the problem had hit the market, their financiers were demanding margin calls. This forced sub-prime security holders to sell their quality assets to cover their illiquid positions. Hedge funds and others were thus forced to sell everything as markets continued to fall, so a snow-balling liquidity problem emerged, which was only stalled when the central banks and bargain hunters moved back in the market.
Clearly there was a 'flight to quality' which resulted in a stronger USD. Surprisingly the panic resulted in even low-risk investments like municipal bonds and hospital stocks being sold off, whilst quality smaller stocks fared even worse, particularly those stocks exposed to the discretionary consumer, energy and raw materials sectors. The sell off was not totally irrational, given that during a credit crunch small stocks have the greatest difficulty raising capital – whether as loans or equity. Thus its understandable that the Russell 2000, a small-cap index, should fall more than the S&P500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). But the extent of the fall should highlight the systematic risks inherit in the market.
Individual investors added their share of panic to the market as they were not immediately in a position to know the extent or ramifications of the crisis. All 10 sectors of the S&P 500 fell between 2.6% (for consumer staples) to 12.76% (for the energy & raw materials sector). The reason of course is that investors perceived this crisis as signalling a downtrend in the economy and a softening in retail sales and commodities demand. Its interesting that the contagion was even worse in commodity producing countries like Australia, South Africa and Canada, which experienced plummeting currencies that would only preserved their local dollar earnings, even though commodity prices did not fare so bad.
But there is another reason why certain high-yielding currencies were signalled out – the carry trade. The yen carry trade involved Japanese financial institutions placing their low-yield institutional funds in higher yielding commodity markets. When there is a loss of confidence in Australia and other countries, the Japanese unwind those currency trades, resulting in a rapid drop in the $A and NZD. The worst performers were the smaller, less liquid stocks. But we must remember that the smaller stocks were trading at significant premiums prior to the crisis so they were always more vulnerable to a correction.
What can we say about the meltdown?
1. There is no question that markets are unstable, and for this reason markets are in need of greater information. This is a financial crisis, not an economic crisis. The problems started in the sub-prime credit market, investors panicked masse, leaving the Fed merely trying to prevent a self-fulfilling prophecy.
2. The sub-prime crisis took on a global magnitude as a result of European and Asian bank exposure to property foreclosures in the US market, giving investors reason to think the crisis was bigger. In reality the risks were distributed more widely.
3. The confidence problem emerges because the financial industry has created an array of new debt instruments that are hard to price, particularly in times of uncertainty. Really they were attempting to make products commodities (securities) which were never really commodities. Because these products don't offer the same level of transparency as simpler instruments, in bad times the liquidity evaporates and the result is a market crisis. The problem was this crisis arose in one of the biggest credit markets, even though it represents just a small fraction of it. The problem was inadequate disclosure to reassure markets.
4. The crisis does however highlight a poor capacity of credit rating agencies to quantify risk, or a preparedness of the agencies to overlook certain risks for the sake of profits. The situation is reminiscent of the auditing fiasco a decade ago when the major auditing companies came under attack for conflict of interests. The credit rating agencies or investors needed to understand the nature of the instruments they were trading – they didn't. The risk assessment was just not adequate.
What can we say about the Fed response?
The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and other central banks acted quickly to pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into the world's banking system, the largest injection since the 9/11 tragedy, when the Fed injected $334 billion into the markets between 12-19th Sept 2001. The actions by the Fed were an appropriate step towards restoring confidence in the banking system. Nevertheless:
1. Liquidity is only a short term measure. If the markets experience another shake out it will be because of further bad news lacking perspective. This just might give us a double-bottom entry into the market.
2. The Fed decided not to cut interest rates on the 7th Aug 2007, insisting that inflation was the greater threat to the economy - not credit disruptions. This is a sign that the Fed has a more realistic assessment of the problem.
3. The Federal Reserve will need to lower the Fed rate if they want to soften the impact of the sub-prime crisis.
I believe the Fed will NOT lower interest rates because of the greater concern about inflation, and its clear that a market anticipation of such a cut might undermine the market at a later date. I think at some point the market will conclude that the global economy is in good shape, even if the US market will be subdued for several years. It also makes no sense for the Fed to ease credit conditions for financial institutions since the financial institutions are only going to tighten credit conditions upon consumers.
What is likely to be the short term impact?
We can expect that there will be several short term impacts:
1. Credit growth will slow as banks lending activities take a hit, and their profits will tank for 2007. And credit growth is likely to fall longer term as interest rates rise. We can expect the banks to focus on their wealth management divisions as we experience a recovery in broad market equities.
2. Markets are in good condition: Investors need to place the current financial problems in perspective. The credit risk in the USA will affect only a small portion of the USA market, so the ramifications for the global economy are quite small. The global economic fundamentals are excellent. Equity market valuations are reasonable, interest rates are still relatively low, employment growth is strong, and global economic growth is booming.
Some of the selling is not unwarranted in those sectors exposed to the US property and financial markets, as well as US-based retailers who will face some exposure to lower consumer spending as US household mortgage payments rise.
So is there a long term crisis brewing in the long term?
As the dust settles it is clear that there is a short term and longer term problem. The central banks injection of liquidity was an appropriate response to the short term panic, so the immediate threat has been addressed. There is however the threat of more bad news, though it is likely to be tempered. Franklin Roosevelt once said that "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself". He made this assertion upon shutting down the nation's banks in 1933 as he assumed the Presidency. The good news is that the Fed will use this opportunity to assess the risk rating procedures of banks and credit agencies, to avert a similar flight of confidence in future.
There are 2 concerns for the Fed:
1. Inflation: The Fed, along with other central banks, are worried about inflation. This is a global problem of much greater global ramifications than a segment of the US property market.
2.. Weak property markets: We must remember that the sub-prime crisis is a problem for poor households as well as aspirational property investors in the USA. Regardless the weakness in the US property market will affect spending there, but we must remember that US households don't look at their house values in a way which would affect their psyche, at least until it results in higher mortgage payments, and so far interest rate increases have been subdued.
So what is an investor to do?
BUY! BUY! BUY! The recent collapse in equity prices was an over-reaction sparked by institutional demands for liquidity. The global reach of the sell-off was really a manifestation of foreign institutional exposure. Clearly the best buys are those sectors that suffered the most during the sell off, so:
Commodity based currencies are going to benefit from retention or recommittals to the carry trade
Commodity (raw material & energy) stocks are likely to recoup the losses they experienced over recent weeks
Small cap stocks that we particularly punished are likely to experience the best recoveries.
There are already signs that this is occurring. The Yen was weak last weak, as Japanese fund managers re-entered forex markets to buy AUD and NZ. The commodity sectors were the strongest sectors of the economy – particularly the smaller quality stocks like Matrix Metals – up 40%.
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Re: Rebound in sight
I have shown two scenarios on the chart - a more favourable 'green outlook' and a more pessemistic 'purple outlook'. The rationale is that I think the market will rally from 13,800pts, however 12,000pts is a stronger support. But I think it can only get to 12,000pts if there is a plethora of bad news. In any respect I think the spec end of the market that carried the greater burden will recover quickly, then profit-taking will set in. So I dont see the market going to 12,000pts in a hurry. But if a few financial institutions fail it could be a very different story. But even if that were the case, expect the Fed and other central banks to step in to save the market.
Saturday, August 11, 2007
Inflationary outlook
1. Unemployment in western markets where the bulk of consumption occurs is tight
2. Productivity has fallen off considerably as asset prices have undermined consumption
3. Debt creation has reached its limits as wsterners become fully leveraged and home ownership rates have never been higher.
4. Interest rates are tightening after reaching their lows
5. Asset prices are falling from their peaks, giving people with high debts reason to pause
6. Inflation is feeding into the basic cost of living, particularly with high energy, food costs. The factor that has not readily been apparent to us has been monetary inflation, although we had witnessed the associated asset inflation. We were lead to believe that was due to higher incomes, growth in income and employment and easy money. But it was more than that. There was a shift in pricing from market prices to the consumers ability to pay, which itself reflected the ever-presence of easy money. Those days are now over. Inflation and debt liquidation will bring money supply back in sync with global output. We tend to talk about inflation and deflation as if they are univeral phenomena, but the reality is the nature and reason for price increases. Over the last 15 years we have seen strong equity and property prices, whilst in the last 5 years commodity prices have been strong. In future we are likely to see subdued asset prices and higher prices for basic commodities. At this juncture there seems to be 2 ways the market can go - each outcome depending on the governments attitude to inflation. It has a choice of achieving a market equilibrium by allowing prices to rise or credit to fall, but normally its some politically palletable combination. It can respond with:
1. Easier monetary policy: This would involve the Fed ignoring inflation and responding to falling asset prices with an injection of credit or paper money into commrcial banks to support credit growth. Of course this would result in run-away inflation culminating in choice 3.
2. Modest monetary policy: That assumes that the governments respond to higher prices with slightly higher interest rates. Despite the increases in nominal rates importantly the increases maintain cheap money in real terms. Eventually this results in negative real interest rates, but asset holders still benefit from higher prices, but only after loan defaulters have been squeezed out of the market. Governments take this approach because it shifts pain to the poor, whilst protecting the asset rich. This stratgy involves the economy working its way out of problems. The consequence is what might be referred to as a 'lost decade' of low returns that occurred in the late 1970s and early 1980s.
3. Tight monetary policy: This strategy involves staying above the curve, to rein in money supply, to force prices down by raising rates, ending credit expansion. This strategy causes a precipitous fall in markets, though once the correction has ended markets are able to build on a firm footing. It hurts everyone, but particularly the holders of assets.
So basically we are looking at 5 years of subdued growth and stable asset prices, or a precipitous shakeout of asset market and credit liquidation culminating in a rapid transition to economic growth, though a calamitous shift in wealth from those with asset or liability exposure to those with cash. The question is:
1. Does the Fed have the skills to maintain a flat market for 5 years?
2. Will global markets be exposed to exogenous factors that might impose instability, eg. bird flu?
Sunday, August 05, 2007
Market correction - Aug 2007
Its hard to make informed decisions on these issues since the information to assess the market is not readily available. Up until a few weeks ago I was thinking that the market had enough momentum to keep growing, that the US housing market was turning around and the amount of money in the global economy would sustain a stronger market, with also the remote prospect of Fed stimulus in the form of lower rates. I was particularly heartened by the fact that copper inventories are very tight and copper and tin prices are very high. But thats a precarious position to hold as well.
I was originally expecting a fall back to the 12,800-12,900 level in the Dow Jones, but I actually would not be surprised if we see a fall to 11,700 pts as its a much stronger support, particularly as I think there is more bad news looming.
Its seems likely that the Dow Jones is about to fall to its trend support of 12800-12900 points. Given that the collapse in the sub-prime market is a US phenomena, you might think this is a US-only phenomena. Well the rationale is that the US consumption has been fuelling the global economy, so a contraction there will have a significant impact on the global economy. I have recently become pessimistic on a US recovery until late 2008, and I see a short recession caused by the housing slump, with the prospect of an inflation-fuelled slum next year, which could make the forthcoming recession about 4-5 years long. I suspect it will take this long for the asset inflation to work its way out of the market and for production capacity to be re-adsorbed.
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Investment Strategy
MY ADVICE is (i) look at a range of market indices and decide upon what level of correction would give you the justification you need to get in & out of the market. It might be a 5-10% retracement or a break of trend. (ii) Diversify if you dont have an intimate knowledge of the company or management. More than 30% in one company is aggressive.
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The Earth Breaks In Colors
A racially fueled incident exposes the fissures that sit beneath the surface of friendships and families, triggering significantly more damage than the earthquake that separates them. Whisper and Odelia are eleven-year-old girls who find refuge in the quiet corner of innocent friendship. Their Southern California homes each play host to an undercurrent of secrets. For Whisper that means a fractured mother returning from rehab, for Odelia a brother whose absence is laced with mystery. Race had no real place in the playful friendship of the white Whisper and the black Odelia until a terrifying encounter brings prejudice to the forefront of their lives, opening their young hearts to ill-begotten emotion. A violent earthquake further tears the world as they know it apart. Can hope and innocence be restored? An heirloom timepiece, a curious old woman and an unlikely hero join the girls as they search for their families and understanding among the rubble. A powerful story of race and redemption by novelist Patti Davis.


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The new Evans High School, which opened this month, finally has people in Pine Hills feeling good about their community.
The $77 million school is the most visible symbol of change yet for the neighborhood that has often been a symbol of Orange County's neglect. Today it's better known for poverty and crime than for its middle-class roots.


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In an interview with the Financial Times, Bank of America's
Lewis is right (little picture) and wrong (big picture)
Whether $10 billion or $20 billion, it's still taxpayer-funded support. Ken Lewis is right that B of A and Citi have been lumped together somewhat unfairly, given that there is a difference in quality between the two franchises. However, that is a discussion of degree that obscures a much more important debate regarding a characteristic that the two banks do share: They are both too big to fail (TBTF).
The TBTF doctrine asserts that, beyond a certain size, the government will step in to protect a bank's uninsured depositors and creditors in the event of insolvency. It's been more or less explicit government policy since 1984, when the Comptroller of the Currency characterized the nation's 11 largest banking groups this way (in 1984, the government rescued Continental Illinois, which was later acquired by … Bank of America).
The big bank subsidy comes due
TBTF is a misguided policy that distorts competitive behavior -- it amounts to a taxpayer subsidy to these banks. The trouble is, most of the time, the subsidy is invisible -- big banks don't fail all that often, after all. During a massive banking crisis, however, it hits the taxpayer with the light touch of a Mack truck. So, who are we (potentially) on the hook for? The threshold for TBTF is estimated to be approximately $100 billion in assets. Today, the list of banks that qualify on that count includes:
Total Assets (U.S.$)
Tier 1 Capital Ratio
Wells Fargo
$1,310 billion
US Bancorp
$266 billion
SunTrust Banks
$185 billion
Goldman Sachs
$884 billion
Morgan Stanley
$659 billion
Sources: Standard & Poor's Capital IQ, SEC Filings, and investor presentation.
Mr. Lewis and the Obama administration are missing the point. A stress test won't do the trick; either a bank poses a genuine systemic risk, in which case it should be broken up, or it doesn't, and it should be allowed to fail. That's the state of affairs that bankers and regulators should be pursuing.
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Suffolk Park, on the A14 at Bury St Edmunds is one of the largest business, distribution and manufacturing development sites in East Anglia, providing a relocation opportunity for companies of all sizes.
There is little or no supply of top quality space in the region that is currently available which makes Suffolk Park the ideal location for expanding East Anglian companies with the added benefit that 37-acres are within the Cambridge Compass enterprise zone.
Qualifying occupiers can obtain up to £55,000 pa of business rates relief for five years totalling £275,000.
And developer Jaynic has just put in a detailed planning application for two units - 205,000 sq ft and 150,000 sq ft - of light industrial and warehouse space, meaning that companies could have their own dedicated buildings within 12 months by the third quarter of 2018.
Already local company Treatt has bought 10 acres within the enterprise zone to create a new 200,000 sq ft global headquarters.
Earlier this year Jaynic obtained outline consent for up to 2m sq ft on the 114-acre site and it has just awarded a construction contract to build the infrastructure for the whole project.
Jaynic's Project Director, Simon Wilson, says: "The enterprise zone designation is a major plus for Suffolk Park and a great incentive for expanding companies in the region to consider.
"Suffolk Park is currently the only major allocated employment site in Bury St Edmunds with planning consent. Occupiers requirements for buildings in a range of sizes from 2,000 sq ft up to 750,000 sq ft, in a single building, can be accommodated within 12-15 months from now."
A further attraction is the £10m invested by New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership to create the Eastern Relief Road which has just opened and gives Suffolk Park direct access onto Junction 45 of the A14 linking the project to the port of Felixstowe,Cambridge, the M11 and the UK motorway system.
The adopted masterplan for Suffolk Park provides for a high quality, well landscaped business park with careful consideration given to building design and outside storage. The existing landscape features, including the principal trees and hedgerows will be substantially retained and within the development plots planting will be used to soften the frontages and provide enclosure for parking areas.
Housing and education infrastructure is well provided adjacent to the park. Taylor Wimpey's 500-home Moreton Hall scheme is being developed in parallel and the new Sybil Andrews Academy School opposite has just opened with its Skyliner Sports Centre which offers discounts to corporate occupiers.
The development is part of a multi-partner initiative to support a range of new and existing businesses in the popular Bury St Edmunds area and to continue to create jobs and prosperity. It is envisioned that the development will have a mix of businesses.
Jaynic has appointed Bury St Edmunds based Hazells Chartered Surveyors as agents for the scheme and interested parties should contact either Jonathan Lloyd or Richard Pyatt on 01284 702626. Savills London's logistics department are working alongside Hazells on the potential logistics development. John Madocks Wright can be contacted on 0207 4098151. For further information www.suffolk-park.uk


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Australian defense officials say more amored vehicles will soon be deployed to Afghanistan.
After two days of parliamentary testimony Tuesday, Defense Minister John Faulkner said that the government will spend $255 million on new armored vehicles to protect troops fighting a resurgent Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan.
Faulkner also said indicated his government will not send more troops to country, despite recent success against Taliban insurgents and signs that life is improving for Afghans.
Australian troops have been part of the multi-national force Afghanistan since late 2001. About 1,500 soldiers are there now to help in the fight militants, train local forces and assist civilian reconstruction efforts.
The country's top military officer, Air Chief Marshar Angus Houston, said during the hearing that Australian Special Forces have killed insurgents responsible for planting roadside bombs, which have inflicted terrible losses on coalition troops and civilians. Houston added that while Afghanistan remains an extremely dangerous country, positive steps have been made, including vital military successes and in important social areas.
"Australian Special Forces and their partners, the provincial police reserve, have been active in targeting Taliban insurgent networks. Across Uruzgan in the last three years the number of schools has more than doubled. There are approximately 43,000 children registered in school, including 4,100 girls," said Houston.
Australia's military leaders think that better facilities, such as schools and electricity, might make Afghans less likely to side with the Taliban, which governed the country before the U.S.-led invasion nine years ago.
Houston cited a recent opinion poll he said suggests that more than half of the Afghan population thinks their battered nation is heading in the right direction.
However, he and Faulkner said that Australia will not send more troops to replace the Dutch force that will leave Uruzgan province in August and return to the Netherlands. To do so, they said, would undermine security at home, and the country's ability to respond to natural disasters and other problems in the Pacific. Instead, Canberra says NATO must assume extra responsibilities when the Dutch depart.


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This is a cast alloy reproduction of the Indian head originally fitted to the front mudguard of the Indian Motorcycle Company's badged US motorcycles of the 1950's. lt looks superb when fitted on the modern Royal Enfield Bullets. The ornament can be fit to any Royal Enfield Motorcycle.
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Cu Bocan | Highland Park | Jameson | Shelter Point | Tullibardine | Wyoming
We do not have a retailer listed for this exact bottling, however you may find the following suggestions useful.
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Whisky Magazine Issue 75
Global blends - Chichibu - Buffalo Trace - Independent Bottlers Challenge - Icons of Whisky - Awards - Yamazaki - Yoichi - The Balvenie - Old Forester - Whisky Kitchen - Bourbon Festival.
Published October 2008.
Editors Choice
Drinking in the Big Smoke
We look at some excellent whisky bars in the English capital, but also at what is happening elsewhere in the country, a distilling revolution is beginning to bear fruit
February 2012, Issue 101, page 44
Mission Impossible?
How Japanese whisky and food pairings hit the spot
June 2015, Issue 128, page 13
World Whiskies Awards
This year's competition saw more than 150 whiskies put through their paces during three rounds of tastings to win the coveted titles of "Best in the World".
April 2009, Issue 79, page 15
World Whiskies Awards 2012 Winners Announced
There is a certain joy following the various spirits through this competition and its format. The job of the judges gets progressively harder as the rounds progress and the competition for the winning...
April 2012, Issue 103, page 73
1 replies. Limited Ed: Hibiki 12, 17, 21, and 30
3 replies. Hibiki 17yo


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A region within synthetic peptide: CQGNSKGENA ANWLTAKSGR KKRCPYTKHQ TLELEKEFLF NMYLTRERRL, corresponding to N terminal amino acids 2-51 of Human HOXA10
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Want to listen to us being off?
If not, that's fine too. It is Thursday, so that means "Say Inappropriate Things Under The Guise of Work Brainstorming" day*, otherwise known as our weekly xojane staff meeting time, otherwise known as: do you want to join? Tell me why you will not be offended by hearing the personal stuff we delve into while coming up with ideas for this site and we will give you the call-in number. Simple as that. If you're at work and want to pretend you are still working, you can just listen in and not talk.
*Boy, do I provide a lot of ammo for hostile work environment claims in these revelations, don't I? To preempt, for anyone considering getting rich off of it: I AM KIDDING! And by the way, DON'T SNORT BATH SALTS WHILE YOU'RE AT IT. And sorry HR dept.
Talk to y'all soon, I hope.


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WASHINGTON — Lenders are becoming more reluctant to share closing documents with real estate agents now that they have more responsibility for them, the National Association of Realtors claimed Thursday.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's new closing document, which replaced the HUD-1 settlement sheet on Oct. 3, put lenders on the hook for the accuracy of the closing document, which had previously been the purview of closing agents.
As a result, less than 30% of lenders said they are willing to show the closing document to a Realtor, according to a survey of lenders conducted in January by the Realtor group.
"Now that lenders feel they are liable for the CD, they are changing that relationship," said Ken Fears, the group's director of regional economics and housing finance.
When real estate agents are allowed to review the closing document, "they are finding a high number of errors," Fears said.
When the closing document isn't shared, Realtors are finding it generally takes longer for the loan to close. "The fact that Realtors are finding errors suggests they could play a role," Fears said.
Since October, 10% of home buyers have shifted from the standard 30-day interest rate lock to rate locks greater than 45 days.
"In addition to longer rate locks, we have also seen rate extensions rise, which add to the buyer's costs," Fears said.
When the closing is delayed, the buyer has to get an extension to lock in the interest rate. A rate extension is more expensive than the initial lock.
Overall, the survey shows 8.3% of settlements were delayed due to the new mortgage disclosure process and 1.5% of closings were cancelled during the final quarter of 2015.
"We are still seeing the delays through January," Fears said.
Midsize lenders (2,000 to 5,000 loans a year) reported the most delays and cancellations.
Vendor software issues are a significant factor behind the closing delays, which will take time to resolve. Meanwhile, real estate agents are likely to gravitate to the most efficient lenders.
"We are going to see some sorting," Fears said, as Realtors refer their clients to lenders that have adjusted well to the new Truth-in-Lending Act-Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act integrated disclosures, better known as TRID.
The Realtor association's quarterly surveys have also picked up a new reluctance on the part of a third of lenders to provide preapproval letters to consumers who are hunting for a house to buy. The percentage has been declining over the last three quarters, but 30% are still reluctant to provide preapproval letters.
"Preapproval letters are important if you are going into a competitive bidding situation," Fears said. It tells the seller that the bidder can qualify for financing.
"Without a preapproval, it places the bidder at a disadvantage," Fears said, particularly in markets with tight inventories.
The Realtor group's survey is focused on purchase mortgage lenders. Twenty percent of respondents are traditional banks, 10% are banks with joint ventures with real estate brokerages, 10% are credit unions and 60% are nonbanks and mortgage banking firms.


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RYE, N.Y. -- Arthura "Atra" Baer Cavataro, a former resident of Rye, N.Y., and Wilton, Conn., and a musician, journalist and speech writer, died Wednesday, July 30, at St. Mary's Hospice in Waterbury, Conn. She was 87.
Cavataro was a columnist at the New York Journal-American newspaper, a leading afternoon daily, through the 1950s and 1960s. Starting as a copy girl, she worked her way up in the newspaper industry.
Her reporting assignments included the city desk, national news, feature writing and television, music and film critic. During the many lengthy newspaper labor union strikes of the 1960s, she wrote for many magazines and newspapers, including the National Enquirer, Weight Watchers and the New York Magazine. She also penned screenplays, songs and operas.
Born Jan. 25, 1927, in New York City to the noted Hearst syndicated columnist and humorist Arthur "Bugs" Baer and Marjorie Cassidy, she was the goddaughter of New York City Mayor James J. "Jimmy" Walker.
She married a fellow journalist Nicholas A. Cavataro on Jan. 21, 1955 in New York City. He died on May 5, 1994.
She is survived by five children: Nicholas J. Cavataro of Greenwich and his wife Susan, Lisa Cavataro of Norwalk, Conn., Richard Cavataro and his wife Elissa of Rye, Arthur Baer Cavataro and his wife Carin of Palm Beach Gardens, Fla., and Mary Cavataro and her spouse Laura LaBosky of Wilton, Conn. She also leaves behind 11 grandchildren: Stephanie Cavataro, Lauren Cavataro, Matthew Cavataro, Kristi Cavataro, James Cavataro, Kathryn Cavataro, Ryan Cavataro, Nicole Cavataro, Tyler Cavataro, Benjamin Cavataro and Hayley Cavataro. She is also survived by her half-brother, Arthur "Bugs" Baer Jr. and his wife Joan of Madison, Conn.
Donations in her name are encouraged to the Rye Free Reading Room Library and the Westchester Humane Society.
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Auroch (prehistoric cattle) painting, Lascaux cave, France.
Credit: Courtesy of The French Ministry of Culture
In this lesson, students travel to the past to explore how people in earlier times used art as a way to record stories and communicate ideas. By studying paintings from the Cave of Lascaux and other caves in France, students discover that pictures are more than pretty colors and representations of things we recognize: they are also a way of communicating beliefs and ideas. In many cases, this is what gives us clues today about what happened long ago, especially when there are no written records left behind.
This lesson gives students the opportunity to understand and appreciate the power of art to tell stories, communicate ideas, and promote understanding of the world around us. In this lesson, students learn about images created by people in pre-history and the stories those pictures tell -- both for the people who created them and for us today as we try to understand what life was like many, many years ago.
How do people express ideas through art? What can we learn about people who lived long ago by looking at a picture? Why do people use images to tell stories and to communicate? What did people use to record important events in their lives or history long ago? How has art been used throughout history to tell stories or to show us what people in other times and places considered important?
After completing this lesson, students will be able to do the following:
This lesson requires you to access web pages through EDSITEment-reviewed websites. You may share these pages with your students at individual computer stations, assign small groups to share several computers, display computer-projected images to the whole class, or print out the pages and distribute copies to students.
The following EDSITEment-reviewed websites, which are all featured in this lesson, contain not only specific information about the featured caves in France, but a range of helpful background information about prehistoric humans and their art:
For background information on a variety of archaeological topics, you might want to visit the EDSITEment-reviewed resource ArchNet. You can type a topic in the Search field on the home page or browse the Museum links, which contain color-coded identifiers for Old World Archaeology.
Also, the following print resources can provide background information as well as detailed descriptions of the prehistoric art of the caves:
The Cave of Lascaux: The Final Photographs by Mario Ruspoli. Harry N. Abrams, 1987.
Dawn of Art: The Chauvet Cave: The Oldest Known Paintings in the World by Jean-Marie Chauvet.
Eliette Brunel Deschamps, Christian Hillaire, & Paul G. Bahn. Harry N. Abrams, 1996.
The Shamans of Prehistory: Trance and Magic in the Painted Caves by Jean Clottes, David Lewis-Williams. Harry N. Abrams, 1998.
Begin by asking students to think about where they have seen pictures that communicate specific information to people, such as directions. Guide the discussion to include international symbols frequently seen, such as: no smoking, handicapped, man, woman, no parking, airport, etc. Ask students to think about why these pictures work well (e.g., people who can't read the language can still understand what is being communicated). You can also invite students to think about how they might tell someone who isn't here about something important, if the student can't write and the person they want to communicate with doesn't have a telephone or email. What if the student was moving to another area, and wanted to leave behind information about his or her house and neighborhood for a family moving into the house who didn't speak English? How can you give information or tell a story without using words? What story might a picture tell? After students have the opportunity to talk about how to communicate when written and spoken language are unavailable, discuss how every picture tells us something, and that some pictures' meanings are more obvious than others.
Ask students what they know about or have heard about cave people: What do they know about the life of these people? When and where did they live? What animals lived when the cave people lived? What did cave people use animals for? What tools did they have? Why do we call them cave people?
How are their lives similar to and different from our lives today? Where do we get our information about the cave people? You can create and show students a timeline of the Paleolithic era, during which the Lascaux cave paintings were made, by using the information on Timelines of History, 1 Million BCE-3300 BCE, available through the EDSITEment-reviewed resource Internet Public Library. Select the dates relevant to the cave paintings and the people who created them, for example:
Invite students to explore the cave paintings at the EDSITEment-reviewed resource Cave of Lascaux.
In the lesson, your students will take a virtual tour of the Cave of Lascaux, the site of some of the earliest known art recorded by humans. Discovered in 1940 by four teenagers on an excursion into the French hillside, the cave is a series of spaces which displays vast amounts of imagery painted by Paleolithic (Stone Age) humans. There are more than 600 animals depicted in Lascaux; of these the horse is the most predominant, followed by bison, ibex, aurochs (an extinct type of ox), stags, mammoths, reindeer, bears, felines, rhinoceros, and a few birds and fish. These animals represent the types of fauna that was known to Paleolithic humans. In addition to the animal figures there are signs depicted (which are associated with the animals), and one lone human figure, drawn with animal characteristics (the man's head resembles a bird's). These images give us a glimpse into the minds and lives of early humans of prehistory.
The area in southwestern France where the Cave of Lascaux is located and the slopes of the Pyrenees Mountains are known for their many Paleolithic caves. These rock shelters and natural limestone caverns provide an ideal environment for preserving the prehistoric art. Of the more than 130 caves in the area, the Cave of Lascaux is the most famous -- but all the caves stand testament to the fact that that early humans had complete mastery of the artistic elements we know today: engraving, sculpture, painting, and drawing.
Today, the caves are not open to the public; they were closed in 1963 after it was determined that carbon dioxide from visitors' breath was causing the artwork to deteriorate. But the marvelous art of the caves can still be enjoyed in The Cave at Lascaux website.
Explain that entering the website captures the experience of the French students who were a few years older than your students are now when they discovered the cave in 1940. With this website from the French Ministry of Culture, your students can feel the same thrill of discovery the four French teenagers felt. Point out that the cave and its paintings had existed for 17,000 years, and that it was remarkable to find them in such excellent condition.
As a class or using individual computers, students can take the virtual tour of the cave and identify animals they discover. Record their findings and other images they note or observations regarding cave painting. For more background on the Caves of Lascaux, access the pull-out menu on the left side of the main page.
Using the section "A visit to the caves" from the pull-out menu as a guide, prompt a discussion by asking the class what they see in the various pictures. After they respond, point out that these paintings show bison, deer, and other animals that the cave people were familiar with in their everyday lives. Tell them that these images give us a peek into what life was like for people thousands of years ago. Have students think about why the cave people made these paintings. Consider the following questions:
Record answers and then guide students in checking the website under the section "Parietal art" and explain to students what the text says.
Ask students about other challenges cave people might have encountered in painting on cave walls and ceilings. Record their answers and add elements they may leave out: pitch-black darkness, irregular surface of the rocky walls, steepness and height, adherence of the pigment to the surface, etc. You might remind students of what happens when they draw with chalk on the sidewalk. Elicit speculation about how the Paleolithic people overcame some of these challenges. If there were no electricity, flashlights, or matches, what did they use for lighting? What would the objects for lighting look like? Instruct them to look at the lamps and other tools on the site.
To give your students a broader understanding of cave paintings and Paleolithic humans, students can explore other caves in France and compare their findings from several caves. They can then describe what is common to all the cave art they saw, and note some of the unique aspects of art in different caves.
This website describes the Cosquer Cave located at Cape Morgiou, near Marseilles on the Mediterranean Sea. The unique feature of this cave is that it contains several dozen works painted and engraved between 27,000 and 19,000 years ago. It is decorated with a variety of land animals, but also with seals and auks, fifty-five hand stencils, and numerous digital markings, dozens of geometric symbols, as well as the extraordinary representation of a "slain man." Like the Cave at Lascaux, the Cosquer Cave is closed to the general public in order to keep it protected, but a virtual tour of the cave is available at the above website.
For a general overview, you can check out the following features:
The Cosquer Cave tells us a bit more about human activities during the Paleolithic period. Students should be delighted to see stencils and positive and negative impressions of human hands similar to ones they have made as art projects for parents. Point out that some fingers are shortened or missing. Ask students what they think the significance of this evidence is. [Scholars speculate that it could indicate deliberate (ritual) or accidental mutilation or perhaps a form of coded communication, similar to sign language for hunting rituals or instructions, according to information on the website.]
The Cave of Chauvet-Pont-d'Arc
This cave website has general background information on the evidence for Aurignacian peoples found in Germany, Austria, France, Spain, and Slovakia. Click on "Time and Space," "Archaeological Context," and, for climate and environmental conditions, clickon "Geographic Context." According to the information found on the website, this archaeological site is a particularly important find for the Upper Paleolithic period because the cave was found in the Ardèche region of France, not the area generally associated with a proliferation of cave art sites. Not only are there animals here rarely depicted in cave art(for example, lions) but also the dynamic and sophisticated quality of their representation is extraordinary.
Student Activity LaunchPad K-2
Teachers: The questions tailored for Lascaux in Parts 1 through 3 can be applied to the other caves mentioned in Part 4. Customize the LaunchPad by adding links to cave images that you've discovered in the cave websites above. You can also assign groups to explore each cave and report on their findings.
[Note: For Part 1 of the LaunchPad, you may want to direct students to several specific areas of the cave to explore to make it easier for them to find the Chinese Horse, the Back-to-Back Bison, the human figure with the bird-like head, etc.]
You may want to use questions like these to get students involved and start the discussion:
3 class periods


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