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Taylor Swift: 'Ours' Video Premiere!
Check out the premiere of Taylor Swift's "Ours" video, featuring Friday Night Lights' Zach Gilford!
"When Taylor says, 'I've got an idea,' you listen to what she's gonna say. And so I did, and it was a great idea – and I loved it!" director Declan Whitebloom, who also worked on the 21-year-old singer's "Mean" video, told E! Online.
"Ours" is the fifth single off Taylor's hit album, Speak Now.
Pictured inside: Taylor leaving Il Buco restaurant after attending Billboard's Women in Music Awards where she was recognized as one of the honorees.
Taylor Swift – 'Ours'

subset: commoncrawl


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Kasich Staffers Helped Craft Anti-Abortion Bills Despite Governor's Denials
John Kasich has spent the past few months on the presidential campaign trail trying to play the approachable moderate on financial and social issues.
But a recent article by AP statehouse reporter Julie Carr Smyth found that Kasich's handpicked staffers decided which abortion restrictions would be included in the last state budget, contrary to the governor's comments that the legislature was driving it all with him as a neutral bystander
Smyth writes, "Believing state legislators were solely responsible for abortion restrictions added to the 2013 budget bill, activists and editorialists across Ohio called on Gov. John Kasich to veto the provisions. What they didn't know at the time was that Kasich's office had a hand in developing some of the language."
In 2013, Ohio Governor John Kasich claimed he was waiting to see what abortion restrictions would be included in the state budget. Then, he said, he would provide his options after they passed through the legislature.
Governors submit executive budget and lawmakers accept, reject or modify them. It's not uncommon, therefore, that a governor's office helps draft legislation. In this case, the AP's Smyth writes, Kasich had "presented himself publicly as uninvolved and neutral as the legislative provisions emerged."
But Kasich aides began helping hone some of that language about 18 months before it emerged publicly, according to internal emails obtained by an abortion provider and given to The Associated Press last month. The governor's office confirmed the emails' authenticity.
NARAL Pro-Choice Ohio's Executive Director Kellie Copeland commented on the finding: "John Kasich is not to be trusted. He hides behind a moderate mask, but the truth is he has been quietly working behind the scenes to impose his radical personal views on Ohioans."
Ms. Copeland said the email trail reported on today reveals that Kasich's staff has, for years, been spearheading work with legislators and Ohio Right to Life to abuse the state's regulatory authority to close abortion clinics.
Kasich was caught on tape lying about it. At an appearance in Bowling Green, Ohio, Gov. Kasich was asked point blank about these measures.
Sandy Theis, executive director of the liberal policy group ProgressOhio, said Kasich had a political reason to conceal any role his office played.
"Gov. Kasich intentionally hid the pivotal role he played in Ohio's assault on reproductive rights," she said. "He did this because he knows Ohio remains a pro-choice state and he does not want to be held accountable for his actions."
It's basic Kasich to deny knowledge or play dumb when that's required to get out of a tight situation. True to his past practices, Mr. Kasich pretended he didn't know anything about them. As suspected, the email trail shows the governor and his team crafted medically unnecessary regulations so they could use the Ohio Department of Health [ODH] to close abortion clinics.
Gov. Kasich was roundly criticized for his appointment of a new director for ODH. His counter-intuitive, perfect-pick to protect public health is not a licensed doctor or qualified health professional, as state law mandates.
Ohio abortion providers continue to wage costly legal battles against Kasich's 2013 and 2015 restrictions. NARAL Pro-Choice Ohio is working to stop even more abortion restrictions from reaching Gov. Kasich's desk.
This Thanksgivig I am thankful that Kasich is still on the bottom of the worst group of Republican candidates in history and that he cannot run for governor in Ohio. His days of power are about to come to an end.
I am thankful for the same things. I have always thought he is a weasel. I hope he stays near the bottom of the Republican pool.


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Your first question about "Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire" shouldn't necessarily be about how good it is. (Hold on to your pointy hats, the news is good.) It should be: How much time do I have? At close to three hours, the film would work well as part of an overnight package: See Harry battle fire-breathing dragons and denizens of the deep, then check into our lovely downtown Marriott!
But the fourth Potter film is otherwise probably the most engaging Potter film. Director Mike Newell and screenwriter Steve Kloves (who has written all four) know their primary responsibility: to create three-ring spectacles like the whiz-bang, airborne game of Quidditch, or Harry's mighty tussles with otherworldly creatures. But they also allow time for the characters to breathe a little -- you know, when they're not busy casting spells.
That means examining the social clumsiness of 14-year-old Harry (Daniel Radcliffe), who's possibly more intimidated by girls than dragons. Wizardry is hard. But there are no spells to help negotiate the terrors of adolescence. How, for instance, is he ever going to muster the courage to ask the attractive Cho Chang (Katie Leung) to the school ball?
If only he had time to figure this stuff out. There's hardly a peaceful moment at Hogwarts, the school of witchcraft and wizardry that Harry attends with his best mates Hermione Granger (Emma Watson) and Ron Weasley (Rupert Grint). For instance, he just got drafted, mysteriously, into the international Triwizard Tournament, a prestigious competition normally restricted to 17-year-olds.
How did that happen? Everyone, Ron included, accuses Harry of secretly slipping his name into contention. But he asserts his innocence. The goblet of fire, the incendiary source of divination for the tourney, spat his name out of its mystical flames. And now Harry has to face three older, more advanced contenders, in a three-trial competition that includes stealing a golden egg from a fire-breathing dragon and saving a friend while octopodan, underwater critters snap at his limbs.
As if this ordeal wasn't enough, a large skull-and-snake apparition has appeared in the skies, a signal that the evil Lord Voldemort (Ralph Fiennes) has returned. A wizard's work is never done.
Fans of the Potter movies will be pleased to see the return of such regulars as headmaster Albus Dumbledore (Michael Gambon), bird's-nest-bearded Hagrid (Robbie Coltrane), and this reviewer's personal favorite, Severus Snape (Alan Rickman), a potion-mixing professor who slinks through dark corridors in funereal black and seems to lick his words before letting them loose. Fans should be even more pleased with Potter newcomer Brendan Gleeson, who deserves a golden shoplifting award for the way he plunders scenes. As Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody, who appoints himself to help Harry defeat Voldemort, he's a facially scarred, cantankerous old salt, who swigs from a small flask and sports an eye patch that actually is a roving eye.
A lesser actor would have thrown himself into the role with pantomimic overkill. But Gleeson (whose performance as Irish criminal Martin Cahill in 1998's "The General" is one of the great performances of that decade) makes Mad-Eye subtly funny, with deft glints in his good eye (in hilarious ocular tango with its artificial twin), twitches of the mouth and swaggers of the head.
Readers of the J.K. Rowling novels -- on which "Goblet of Fire" and the three previous Potter films are based -- may be disappointed that many details from the book have been altered or omitted. (A maze, for instance, that figures in a climactic scene in the movie has almost no hidden creatures -- an obvious departure from Rowling's story.) But by now, they should have gotten used to this necessary evil. Movies work on a leaner diet and, if they didn't, I'd still be watching "Goblet of Fire."
There's still satisfying large-scale action and smaller-scale interaction whether it's the cool scene in which that dragon chases Harry from tower to tower, dislodging slates with its enormous talons, or Harry's confusion with smaller adversaries in dresses. Newell, who directed such assured ensemble pieces as "Enchanted April" and "Four Weddings and a Funeral," knows how to maximize his actors. (He even manages to make an effective performer of Radcliffe, who will never raise an Oscar above his head, but whose clumsiness works well for Harry.) I love the way Snape delicately adjusts his sleeves just before whacking the heads of Harry and Ron, who are talking out of turn. And it was equally pleasurable to watch Ron's embarrassment when he's called out in front of his peers to demonstrate the waltz with the severe Professor McGonagall (Maggie Smith).
"Put your hand on my waist," she demands frostily. The expression on Ron's face at this point is clear: He'd just as soon perform the fox trot with Medusa. It's a wonderful mark of this movie that a teenager's humiliation can pack just as much firepower as a life-and-death battle with scary monsters.
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (160 minutes, at area theaters) is rated PG-13 for sequences of fantasy violence and frightening images.


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Pavón dismissed
Madrid were pushing hard for the victory they needed to move back to the top of the standings when central defender Francisco Pavón was sent off for a second booking on 72 minutes. Carlos Queiroz's side continued to press but Zaragoza held out, with Argentinian central defender Gabriel Milito in outstanding form against the club which rejected him during the close season.
Depor on top
The result left Madrid in second place with 20 points from nine games, a point behind leaders RC Deportivo La Coruña and one ahead of third-placed Valencia CF. Depor can stretch their advantage over the defending champions if they win at home against RCD Mallorca tonight, while Valencia have a chance to take second position when they play RC Celta de Vigo at home.
Galletti opening
Zaragoza's best opening came as Luciano Galletti was put through on goal ten metres out on the right side of the area, only to hit the far post with his shot. Madrid, once again missing the injured England captain David Beckham, looked disjointed early on but they gradually started to dominate from the 25-minute mark.
Madrid go close
Ronaldo thought he deserved a penalty after being tugged in the area by Alvaro before Raúl González shot over when well placed. Madrid then went close to scoring three in the space of five minutes in the second half - Roberto Carlos hitting a post before Raúl and Zinedine Zidane brought fine saves from Zaragoza goalkeeper César Lainez.
|Last updated: 04/07/2011 05:32 CET


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Tuncay Sanli´s 32nd-minute strike was enough to see off dismal Derby - but Boro finished badly and almost paid when Robert Earnshaw missed a golden chance to equalise five minutes from time.
After his team´s 1-0 Barclays Premier League win, Southgate said: "We´ve seen it through and they weren´t able to punish us - but we can´t play like that."
Copyright (c) PA Sport 2008, All Rights Reserved.
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Victoria Beckham has further distanced herself from a future Spice Girls get together after insisting she never wants to sing in public again.
Posh Spice reunited with the girl power pop group for a world tour in 2007 and 2008 but has since made it clear she won't be returning to the stage with her former bandmates.
And singing pal Melanie Chisholm recently confessed she was a little upset when Beckham even refused to pose with the group at the launch of the Spice Girls stage musical in London last year (Dec12).
Now, Beckham who has become a leading fashion mogul, has revealed she has no wish to perform again.
The singer is quoted by German publication ICON as saying, "I will never do it again in a professional way."
Instead, she's happy being part of the audience when her kids perform at home: "We are a very musical family, we sing and dance at home, the boys attend the school choir, play the guitar, (daughter) Harper likes to listen to songs from Little Mermaid and, like all mums do, I sing along with the kids in the car."


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Earth Island Institute
Home › Programs › Restoration Initiatives › Wetland Restoration Grants
Restoration Initiatives
Supporting community-based wetland restoration initiatives
Newport Valley and Upper Newport Bay
Community restoration
Grantee: Tides Center / Marine Education Project
Award: $16800
Total Cost: $23900
The CBREP used this grant to restore habitat for native wildlife at the Newport Valley project site at Upper Newport Bay, while creating an avenue for community involvement and education. The project mobilized 210 public volunteers, local schools, community groups, and agencies who contributed more than 650 hours of work to conduct invasive species eradication, native seed collection, propagation, and planting to enhance riparian and coastal sage scrub habitat. In all, 10,000 pounds of non-native plants were removed, and 148 native plants were planted!
Tides Center / Marine Education Project
(415) 561-6300


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My journey to the world of snowflakes started about 15 years ago and began with my love for microscopes. Upon showing images from the microscope to friends they had little interest in all the wonderful biology, but were fascinated by the images of snowflakes. There had been little done in this field since Bentley fist took snowflake images from his barn in the hills of Vermont approximately 100 years ago.
I live and work in one of the snowiest cities in the United States. Rochester N.Y. is situated between Buffalo and Syracuse and it is often a coin toss which city gets the most snow. Unfortunately, our snow is not the kind of snow that graces the covers of Christmas cards, but is a crystalline mess called lake effect snow. This type of snow is created when very cold air travels across the warm waters of the great lakes and picks up moisture. The moisture is then dumped as snow over the land. This type of snow is very quickly growing, so large nice crystals just do not have time to form. We are lucky if we get three snowfalls a season that contain large fern like crystals. On average, Rochester gets about 92 inches of snow a year.
In the world of the study of snow an individual single crystal is called a snow crystal, when groups of crystals are called snowflakes.
The technique for photographing a single snow crystal is a bit difficult. I keep a snow shed in my backyard that keeps the microscopes and different light sources out of the weather but still cold. I only photograph when the temperature is below 25F. Above 25 F, the heat radiated by your body can melt the crystal. I keep a sheet of black cardboard inside my front door to check the falling snow for good crystal development. I can tell the snow type by looking at the terminal velocity and the reflections of lights on the crystals. If snow falling on the black cardboard tells me conditions are good, I put on all my winter jackets and boots and take the digital camera to the snow shed. The individual crystals fall on a sheet of black paper and good crystals are picked up with a pin and transfered to a microscope slide. This might seem like an impossible task, but with practice, I can go through a dozen crystals in a few minutes. I have to work fast. The snow crystal will often evaporate and change size and structure while it is under the microscope.
A relatively rare fern-like stellar dendrite snow crystal photographed in Rochester NY.
A true snowflake is a group of snow crystals. Groups like this are very common here in upstate New York.
One example of snow needles. One possible type of lake effect snow.
Many times there are "freak snow crystals" – here is one. Not exactly symmetrical.
Close-up of the center of a nice stellar dendrite snow crystal.
This post was written by photographer Ted Kinsman for Photo Synthesis.]]>
Fluids are a constant source of inspiration for high speed photography. Water and milk are two of the common liquids around us every day, but still their complex behavior is a source of wonder. Fluid scientists are still pioneering some of the basic equations that are responsible for the complex motion of fluids. In these pictures a drop of liquid is falling into a container of liquid. The first falling drop creates a recoil splash that shoots up out of the container. Just when the recoil droplet gets to the top of its motion a second falling droplet collides. The timing often happens by chance when pouring liquids, but here it is controlled with a microprocessor so each collision can be studied and photographed in detail. The motion is once again frozen in time with the help of a 1/60,000th of a second flash.
This post was written by Ted Kinsman for Photo Synthesis.]]>
The human brain has an uncanny ability to see the human form in the most unlikely places. Religious icons in toast and faces in the clouds are but a few examples. Here it is droplets of water colliding with each other. I call the shot above "Man and Woman." This tendency to create order out of chaos never stops to amaze me. I will leave it to the reader to see what they can find in the image below.
These images were taken with a Cognisys Inc. water drip valve and microprocessor camera controller. The flash is from two off axis strobes with a duration of 1/60,000th of a second. More drops hitting drops in the next post.
This post was written by Ted Kinsman for Photo Synthesis]]>
The world of X-ray photography is a very interesting place and surprises are often found in every image. X-rays are similar to Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) in the sense that the collected images are only black and white. To take these image I use a scientific X-ray machine at a local company. The source is much finer than a medical device and the exposure has to be taken on film since the large digital detectors have not yet come down in price. Here an antique alarm clock is X-rayed. The film is then scanned into a high resolution digital file that has to be meticulously hand colored in photoshop. The colors are only chosen to look nice together and to highlight the different parts of the clock. It is hard to see on this web resolution file, but the alarm clock has been over-wound and the main spring on the right hand side is broken. Thus the broken clock was only a dollar at the local flea market. By the way, there are several flea markets that I can be found wandering around in the summer, often carrying the strangest of objects. With X-rays the color and scratched surface is of no interest, and often times broken things are more interesting than working ones.
This post was written by Ted Kinsman for Photo Synthesis.]]>
This is how.
This image was provided by Ted Kinsman for Photo Synthesis.]]>
With many photo sessions once the photography is done we will stand around looking at all the equipment set up and wonder what else we can do with it before the set has to be disassembled. At this point someone wondered what would happen if the paint ball were to hit an egg?
The results above show that the paint ball hits at such a speed as to break, then force the yolk out the other side before moving through the rest of the shell. Shots like this create a tremendous mess and parts of the lab will have pinhead specks of pink paint ball dye and dried egg yolk for years to come. I hope this image excites the minds of a few readers. I always welcome ideas, even though it is often years before I get around to doing a certain project.
This post was written by Ted Kinsman for Photo Synthesis.]]>
I have photographed jugglers several times in the past for physics text books. I have been impressed with the level of skill some jugglers can obtain. It is difficult enough to juggle three balls, four is more difficult, and fire is a another story. When objects move in a circle they can undergo some fairly complicated motions. What would be the best way to show this motion in a still image?
In this case the camera is panned by the juggler at a constant rate on a computer controlled pan head. When the juggler is about the center of the frame a flash is set off. The image shows both the flip the club does at the top of the throw and the uneven motion of the clubs as the juggler makes corrections to his throw as the motion is kept under control. This juggler is has been practicing for three years and is currently only 14 years old!
This post was written by Ted Kinsman for Photo Synthesis.]]>
I often get asked to photograph odd things, more times than not the project changes when an art director decides to take a different path for an article. Such requests are a great source of ideas.
In this case a request was for triboluminescence. This is where my background in physics and optics is a big help. Triboluminescence is an optical phenomenon in which light is generated when asymmetrical crystalline bonds in a material are broken when that material is crushed. There are a number of materials that do this including quartz, sugar and even ice. In this image I am hitting a wintergreen lifesaver candy fairly hard with a hammer. This is clearly visible to the human eye, but very difficult to capture with a camera. To get enough light 10 candies had to be smashed in the same location. The outline of the hammer and candy is a double exposure from a separate frame. This image conveys what you would see if you did this yourself- I hope some of the readers give it a try. The lifesavers also give off light as they are dissolved in solution – such as saliva in your mouth. This is a good excuse for you and a friend to go in a dark room and eat lifesavers. If you do not have a handy assistant for this experiment – use a mirror and look at your own mouth as you eat a wintergreen lifesaver. There is still a lot that is unknown about the physics of triboluminescence. As far a photographing the process in ice – that is top of my to-do-list.
This post was written by Ted Kinsman for Photo Synthesis]]>
A scanning electron microscope image of a monarch butterfly wing.
Since a scanning electron microscope only collects a black and white image (representing intensity of electrons) the image must be colorized with photoshop. The colors are fairly close to the real colors of the wing.
The wing is composed of scales or platelets that in turn have a micro structure that creates turbulence as the wing moves through the air. The turbulence is responsible for decreasing drag on the wing and allows the butterfly to move with less energy.
Monarch Butterflies are native to North America where they migrate each spring from a wintering ground in Mexico. Each generation moves further north until the last generation gets the urge to migrate back to Mexico. Many Monarch butterflies are blown off course by storms. The butterflies in modern times have established themselves where ever there is a suitable host plant. Fairly recently monarchs have become established in New Zealand. Monarchs were not established in New Zealand until the caterpillar's host plant of milkweed was accidentally released in the early 1900's.
This post was written by Ted Kinsman for Photo Synthesis
Scleractinian corals, also known as stony corals — or just hard corals — are the primary reef builders in the oceans. Their polyps secrete calcium carbonate to form a skeleton. A minority of species live as single polyps, but most stony coral species are colonial, and the structures they build 'grow' over time. They form a myriad of shapes: mounds, branches, fingers, plates, and encrustations.
In several previous posts I discussed and displayed photos of a number of so-called soft corals, all of which are octocorals, i.e., their polyps have eight tentacles. Stony corals are hexacorals: their polyps have tentacles in multiple of six. Most seem to feed at night, so you are not likely to see the tentacles extended during daylight hours.
The coral in the first photo (top right) forms a rounded hemispherical head that is grooved in a meandering, maze-like pattern. Corals that form these kinds of colonies often are referred to as 'brain corals' because the patterns of the ridges and grooves are reminiscent of the sulci of a brain. The one pictured is Diploria labyrinthiformis, a species common throughout the Caribbean Sea.
Below is another example of a 'brain coral' — this one from the Red Sea. This species (Platygyra daedalea) forms massive colonies, sometimes more than a meter in diameter. Most brain corals belong to the family Faviidae.
I mentioned above that some hard corals live as single corallites. Members of the family Fungiidae fit that description. Known by the common name Mushroom Corals, these are free-living, i.e., they are not attached to the substrate. The photo below is a macro image of Fungia scutaria, an Indo-Pacific species. This is the most common mushroom coral found in Hawaii, where this one was photographed. The overall shape of the corallite usually is oval, with septae radiating from a central mouth, as shown in the photo. The corallite can attain a width of 15 cm to 18 cm (6 in to 7 in).
While hard corals all have calcareous skeletons by definition, the rest of their anatomy consists mostly of soft parts. Some of those can obscure the skeleton to the point that it is hard to tell, just by looking, that some species are indeed hard corals. A good example is Bubble Coral (Plerogyra sp.), shown in the next photo, below. The stalked corallites of this genus form rounded colonies. The skeleton of the colony is obscured during daylight hours by bubble-shaped vesicles. When this coral feeds, the vesicles deflate, and the tentacles emerge.
By the way, in this macro image you can see clearly that this coral is infested with little pancake-shaped critters. They are Waminoa flatworms. The photo was taken at Bunaken Island, Indonesia where much of the bubble coral seemed to be sporting Waminoa.
Corals of the genus Goniopora seem to feed mostly during daylight hours. The polyps have 24 tentacles arranged in a way that makes them look like flowers. The macro photo below shows the clustered polyps of a Goniopora species from the Red Sea.
A favorite subject with underwater photographers are the colorful members of the family Dendrophylliidae. They grow tubular skeletons topped by a cup-shaped calyx, so they are known by the common names Tube Corals or Cup Corals. Another common name is Cave Coral, a name that refers to this family's habit of growing on the walls and roofs of underwater caves, and underneath ledges. Some members of the family are colonial, while others are solitary. All of them have gloriously colored tentacles, usually in shades of red, orange, or bright yellow.
I will close with two photos of a colonial Dendrophyllid species from Hawaii, Tubastrea coccinea. Both photos are of the same colony, located inside a small underwater cavelet, but taken at two different times. The first image was captured during daylight hours and the tentacles are retracted into the calyces.
The final photo is a macro image of a polyp from the same colony as above, but this one was taken during a night dive. When their beautifully colored tentacles are extended for feeding, these corals are a sight to behold.
I hope the readers of Photo Synthesis have enjoyed my underwater photos as much as I have enjoyed presenting them during the past month.]]>


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Apologies in advance for what is probably a simple question answered elsewhere (though my search efforts haven't turned up what I need).
I have HanDBase for iPhone Version 4.9.063 on my phone and HanDBase Desktop Version 4.1.5d on my PC. Is there a way to get a database (whole thing, not just the records) I created on my iPhone to my PC version of HanDBase? As far as I can tell, neither of my versions of HanDBase (iPhone or PC) has the conduit function. Do I need to upgrade one or the other version of HanDBase to be able to make the transfer? Thanks.


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Is the Future of Digital Ad Buys in Cost-per-Engagement?
Can advertisers find a way to combat banner blindness with better ads or more eye-catching page placements for their CPM campaigns?
Can advertisers find a way to combat banner blindness with better ads or more eye-catching page placements for their CPM campaigns?
The term "banner blindness," while alliteratively catchy, is a thorn in the side of online advertisers entrenched in many CPM (cost-per-thousand impressions) campaigns. Advertisers paying for real estate on web pages want their impressions to matter; they want their ads to be seen (even if briefly) and their brand awareness to grow. They know not all of these ad impressions will be dutifully read by their audience, but that's often the accepted nature of CPM. As long as an ROI is met, no harm done, right? Perhaps. But is there a better way?
As many of us know, those pesky web surfers – i.e., our intended audience – are becoming increasingly adept at ignoring these display ads. Banner blindness is by no means a new phenomenon, having been first coined in 1998(!) by a pair of Rice University researchers. But research from comScore is showing it could be getting worse, because paying for ads that don't have the chance to be seen is even more troublesome than ads that are at least visible on your audience's web page (i.e., above the fold). In short, CPM is a tricky beast that can produce murky results.
The CPC (cost-per-click) ad model is the most common alternative to CPM, but there's a swell of new traction around cost-per-engagement (CPE). The CPE ad model is as it's described: advertisers are paying for a certain level of demonstrated engagement with your ad. What that level of engagement it depends on the advertiser and the ad network they are using, but the possibilities are more varied (and often yield more creative ads) than what you could expect from a CPC or CPM campaign. Some examples of engagement with an ad include the target audience taking a survey, tweeting a link about the brand, watching a video to completion, or submitting their email address. If your audience does one of these actions as part of your ad, you'll pay for that engagement. If not, you won't.
If the thought of getting someone to happily interact with an ad sounds far-fetched, you're right. But the trick with CPE is that your audience is often getting something in return for that engagement. Examples include trading this engagement action for goodies like premium content, free services (such as Wi-Fi access), or discounts on products they are already showing an interest in.
CPE figures to be more expensive than other digital ad formats, but it takes a lot of the guesswork out of the process. After all, you know what you're paying for, and you're only paying for what you actually get. This really contrasts with the incumbent CPM and CPC models, where you generally either hope for clicks (or at least eyeballs) on a high volume of impressions (as with CPM), or hope for conversions on the clicks you're paying for (as with CPC).
Each ad model has its strengths and weaknesses, but it'll be interesting to see where, in a few years, CPE stands in comparison to its longer-tenured counterparts. Will the higher cost of CPE ad campaigns deter advertisers? Can advertisers find a way to combat banner blindness with better ads or more eye-catching page placements for their CPM campaigns? Will another model, outside of these three, emerge as the premier way to serve ads with transparent benefits and attractive cost points? I don't think anyone has the definitive answer yet – we'll see how advertisers, ad networks, and publishers work together to shape the future of digital ad serving.


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Classic Shirts
Choose a shirt from the Farah Classic range and you've got that smart-casual hero you've been after. Team with jeans, layer up with a sweater, or go smart without losing your style by wearing it with Farah Classic trousers. In plain white, subtle patterned or stand-out check designs, get this style essential and you have a look to take on every occasion.


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Beef and Lobster in Dublin was one of the few restaurants open on January 3..so we tried it out!
After the holiday festivities, Dublin city center seems like a ghost town. Some shops and restaurants are not open for business until the second week of January. So, if you are walking around the city center around this time of the year, expect some hot spots to remain closed for business!
Continue reading "Review: Beef and Lobster" »


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About this listing
Luxury penthouse! Includes two bedrooms (one suite with air conditioning and king size bed, the other room with queen or two singles), three well appointed bathrooms, modern and well equipped kitchen with open design to large dining area, small private pool and patio with tropical plants, large living/entertaining room with dark hardwood floors, large-screen cable TV, surround sound stereo, wireless connectivity, a sun deck on third floor, two secure parking spaces in garage area, 24-hour security and porter services. Maid services as needed. Ten minute taxi ride to football stadium.
Things to do nearby
Great location and neighborhood: Situated in Barra, Salvador, this penthouse is a 10 minute taxi or bus ride to new soccer stadium Arena Fonte Nova, venue for the World Cup 2014. It is also a short ride to colonial/ historical center of city, Pelourinho district.
The penthouse is a 5 minute walk to beach and boardwalk (Porto de Barra), to Shopping Barra shopping center, and to lighthouse (Farol de Barra).
The owner
Male from Brazil
Joined 04/04/2014
Speaks English, Spanish, Portuguese
I'm an American living in Brazil. Carnival was again amazing this year. Now everyone is getting excited for the World Cup. Come and visit.
Rent my 2 bedroom Penthouse in Barra, Salvador!


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Market Day, now a subsidiary of World's Finest Chocolate, offers a $1 chocolate bar or a $2 chocolate bar fundraiser option with participants earning up to 50 percent profit with either option, as of 2016. Market Day also offers straight packs or variety packs of chocolate bars.Continue Reading
The straight packs contain only one kind of candy bar, such as the Continental Almonds and Foil Wrapped Chocolates, while the variety pack contains multiple flavors. Each product comes with a stock label or a free personalized label for the fundraiser in question. The $1 product option comes with an assortment of flavors, where one bar is worth one dollar. The $2 option comes with a wider range of chocolate bar varieties than the $1 option, and each bar is made of premium chocolate.Learn more about Business & Finance


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Punjab Government Employees Cashless Health Insurance Scheme
Punjab Government Employees health insurance scheme
Punjab government employees pensioner cashless health insurance scheme 2016 for newly state Recruited Retired retiring PGEPHIS Punjab cashless health insurance scheme smart card yojana latest news medical treatment rules
Punjab government employees scheme and pensioner health insurance scheme is for those sarkari naukari people who are All personnel of the Punjab Government cashless health insurance scheme including All India Service officers Newly selected bharti, who are Retired in previous year 2015 and today Retiring 2016 they are eligible under the existing Punjab Medical insurance scheme for state government employees or Attendant Rules [CS(MA) Rules, 1940] shall be offered Health Insurance Scheme policy on compulsory or on optional basis
Punjab health insurance card will be provided to those online registration form who fill Punjab govt health insurance scheme they are advice to submit their Enrollment Form within the duration of Enrollment Period. The enrollment of new employees, who join after the last date of after the date of expiry due date of Enrollment Period, shall continue throughout the policy plan period. Cashless health insurance for Punjab government employees including all IAS & IPS officers serving in the State- serving and retired will be covered under the existing Punjab Medical Attendant Rules PGEPHIS would be available on voluntary/ optional basis
Punjab health insurance scheme PGEPHIS online application form will cover the indoor/ daycare entitlements as specified under the State Services. Maternity and Newborn Benefits means treatment taken in Empanelled Hospital/Nursing Home arising from childbirth including Normal Delivery/Caesarean. Chandigarh cashless health insurance Scheme shall cover a family and dependents current policy irrespective
Income Age Limit for dependency of Punjab family medical insurance members shall be as defined under existing Punjab Medical Attendance. New Employees Cashless Health Insurance Scheme As regards the new incumbents the coverage in the insurance scheme is compulsory. The data of such employees/ pensioners will be collected from the various departments by the Insurance Company.
Base Sum Insured: The Scheme shall provide coverage for meeting all expenses relating to hospitalization of beneficiary members up to Rs. 3, 00,000/- per family per year. In an event the Buffer Sum Insured of Rs 25 crores gets completely exhausted, the cashless reimbursement more than Rs 3.00 lacs will not be available to any employee/ pensioner and the over and above expenses shall be met by the State Government as per the extent of the medical reimbursement policy and procedures.
Payment of Premium:
In case of serving employees/pensioners and mentioned as a opted category,
The premium of the main member as well as dependent
Enrollment Period:
a) The enrolment period shall start with immediate effect from the date of Notification of the Scheme and will be completed by 31-12-2015, except for I) "New employees", who shall be eligible to get covered under PGEPHIS after, The date expiry of the enrollment period, i.e. their date of joining into the Service
Deletion from Family is allowed in following contingencies:
a) Death of covered beneficiary,
b) Divorce of the spouse,
c) Member becoming ineligible (on condition of dependency)
Photo ID Cards along with the Guide Book shall be handed over by the Insurance Company SBI insurance company, oriental insurance LIC Star health insurance to the DDOs for onward delivery to the employee/ pensioner
Network Hospitals for all types of treatment: Govt private hospitals in Punjab, Chandigarh &Panchkula
Punjab Cashless Health Insurance Scheme date: The insurance policy coverage/ Policy Plan Period shall commence from 1st January 2016 and will expire on midnight 12.00 am of 31-12-2016.
CASHLESS ACCESS SERVICE: The TPA/ Insurer has to ensure that all PGEPHIS members are provided with adequate facilities so that they do not have to pay any deposits at the commencement of the treatment or at the end of treatment to the extent of the Services as covered under the Scheme. The service provided by the Insurer along with the responsibilities of the Insurer as detailed in this clause is collectively referred to as the "Cashless Access Service."


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Discuss the massively-multiplayer home defense game.
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I noticed two weird things related to visibility.
First one is about throwable objects. In some cases an animal is in sight (I mean that he can see you, and hovering the mouse displays its name) and is at throwable distance, but you can't throw him anything. For example in this case:
XXD X:wall; D:dog; P:player
I guess there is a condition testing if some straight line is found between you and the dog, but the player is not aware of this rule and so the ability to throw objects looks, at times, arbitrary. It would be clearer if any object in sight -and of course within range- could be reachable.
Second one is just cosmetic: animals that felt into a pit or trapdoor are drawn almost at the bottom of the tile, and so are invisible if there is a wall beneath.
P P:pit with crippled animal
X X: wall
This can, sometimes, make a big difference
While thinking about the first point, I got to realize this paradoxical behaviour:
Imagine X is a wall. A and B can see each other if the player is on tile A, but not if it is on tile B!
Actually I never noticed this paradox before (and nobody complained about it) because I think we got used to this behaviour early on...
Last edited by arakira (2014-01-07 08:38:18)
Yes, that looks like a bug with the targeting distance code. Looking into it.
Regarding dead animals in pits... they really do need to be drawn near the bottom. Otherwise, they look weird.
That paradox is not a bug, because vision is computed from the player's perspective. If the player is at B, the wall is much closer to the player, so it obscures more. If the player is at A, the player is farther from the wall, so the wall blocks less. If you study it, you'll see that indeed the "cone" of invisibility cast from the player is much wider when the player is standing at B.
AND... to keep things reasonable in the "who saw who" mechanisms, it all depends on what the player can see (I don't compute separate view cones for each vision-sensitive object in the house). If you can see them, they can see you. If you can't see them, they can't see you.
Actually, in this case, the line passing between the center of the robber and the center of the dog crosses the wall, so the throw is blocked. You can see the dog in this case because you have line of sight onto the corner of its tile, but throws require that you have line of sight to the center of its tile.
Yes, I understand that there is a geometrical reason behind the ability to throw, I just mean that it is annoying when you don't know it. You have to learn a new "hidden" rule, and, even after you learn it, you'll have to draw a line between centers of tiles, and look for intersections... Sometimes you plan a robbery requiring a precise throw, and you don't want to gamble on whether or not you'll be able to perform the throw (or end up being frustrated if the throw is not allowed). To me it just seems more natural that if you see some object, than you can throw at it or shoot it.
Hmm... yes, that does seem natural.
The current code came from some tools in older versions having much longer reaches, combined with windows that were supposed to block these tools. So, you could "see" the object, and it might be "reachable in 7 steps" in a round-about way, but it shouldn't be targetable because there's no line-of-sight unobstructed path.
Now that reaches are shorter, it might not be as much of an issue. I will look into it.
I know these arent related as much to the topic, but they are somewhat related.
Could the possibility exist to shoot animals with the gun, through windows?
I only make the suggestion as i have noticed an increase in the magic dance houses, which i do not want to commit to try and break, because i dont have the money, lol. A lot of houses have now come along with a window, and a dog of which you can clearly see. The dog then follows you beyond your visibility pushing a random series of buttons of which you dont know what they do, then at the end is either a series of doors, leading to the dog insta-attacking you, or a row of grates to kill you as the dog follows pushing buttons.
The other suggestion would be, allowing the dog to break chase after he has lost sight of you for several moves, like say 2 or 3 moves.
To shoot a dog through a window, you must break it with a brick first.
Long before you came on board, we experimented with dogs that stopped moving after they could no longer see you. We tried removing a lot of things, trying to pare house design down to a place were no "boring, too tough" security systems were possible. It was never possible. If we didn't have the magic dance thing, we'd have buttons that the robber had to hit. Some kind of combo lock is always possible. Even if you remove all electronics, people could make branching mazes with only one correct path. That's effectively a combo lock where the answer is LLRRLLRLRL.
And, with each of these things that I removed, "interesting" designs got removed along with it. If dogs no longer follow you when they can't see you, traps that "release the hounds" behind you (after you've already seen them through a window) become less possible.
Also, I recall people putting hidden buttons right at the edge of the screen with cats that would step off to hit the buttons (and you could see the cats across long pits). So, yes the cat would stop moving after it went off screen and couldn't see you, but it was still being used to trigger hidden stuff!
In the end, I put most of this removed stuff back in (except for the "animals always follow you, even if they've never seen you at all" part), and shifted the income in the game to bounties, which encourages people to build houses that trick others instead of just scaring them away.
well im glad you came in to atleast justify your means for why you believe it is fine, and i accept that. You dont normally get the level of socialization from a developer that you provide.
I think this is the first spam I've seen on this site since I joined the forums.
I think this is the first spam I've seen on this site since I joined the forums.
http://thecastledoctrine.net/forums/vie … p?id=5&p=3
There used to be tons, and still is some left over, but the join question stopped most of it.
Removed that. Yeah, spam was a HUGE problem at first, even with robot-proof math and color questions. Only a question that required real work (like a question about the game) stopped it.
I think most spammers are humans!
Hmm... yes, that does seem natural.
The current code came from some tools in older versions having much longer reaches, combined with windows that were supposed to block these tools. So, you could "see" the object, and it might be "reachable in 7 steps" in a round-about way, but it shouldn't be targetable because there's no line-of-sight unobstructed path.
Now that reaches are shorter, it might not be as much of an issue. I will look into it.
I personally like the fact that there are some things that you are aware of but can't get a good aim at, and it seems fairly natural to me. You catch a glimpse of a cat around the corner but can't get a good aim at it with a brick. This also allows for interesting tactical trap making in small spaces which allows a home owner to pack more into a house, which I think is a good thing.
I made this change, and with the current, short reaches of everything, it doesn't change the feel very much. Except it fixes the stuff that looks obviously targetable but was not before because of subtle issues in the line-of-sight code.
Now the way that it works is this: If you can see it, and you can clearly walk there in 3 steps, you can hit it with a 3-reach tool, regardless of a clear throw line. Something behind a window must thus be closer to you than something with no window in the way (because you'd have to take extra steps to walk around the window). Logically, it would be kind of a "leaning throw" to throw around the window, which couldn't go as far.
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HotelPad user interface PSD
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Despite receiving several requests down the years, for some reason or other I have never made my way around to trying any Godiva products. This was a revelation that came to the massive surprise of my new American work colleague Rose, who when I revealed the theme of my website exclaimed, and I quote ... "Godiva must be a the top of the list, it is the best chocolate ever". After somewhat embarrassingly telling her that this was a brand I hadn't managed to feature once over the last three years, Rose took it upon herself to set that right and kindly bought me a handpicked selection box of some of her favourite truffles from one of Godvia's flagship stores in London.
Before indulging myself in the truffles I made a point of doing a little background research courtesy of Wiki ... "Godiva (guh-DY-vuh) was founded in 1926 in Brussels, Belgium, by Joseph Draps. Godiva now owns and operates more than 450 retail boutiques and shops in the United States, Canada, Europe, and Asia and is available via over 10,000 speciality retailers". Quite how I have managed to not review such a well distributed manufacture of chocolates I do not know.
Well anyway thanks to Rose I got my hands on six of their fresh truffle range. The presentation of the produce I got to sample today can only be be described as beautiful. Everything from the golden coloured box, dainty ribbon, branded inner padding, to the chocolates themselves, just looked stunning and radiated the sense that this brand offered a high end chocolate experience.
What with this selection being handpicked from a Godiva chocolate counter, there was unfortunately no menu to identify the pieces you see below. With the assistance of the Godiva wesbite I have been able to determine the names of the chocolates, though for the majority I was tasting them blind, not knowing what to expect.
Creme Fraiche Pistache - The pistachio flavoured fresh cream at the centre of this piece meant I had to consume these chocolates within 3 days of receiving them - as if I really needed any more encouragement :D Encased by an intricately crafted double layered milk and white chocolate shell, a delicious creamy cocoa taste was established from the outset. The mouth feel created by biting in to the crisp shell and then in to the soft cream centre was out of this world, but the pistachio element didn't really come through in the compounding cream flavours. A beautiful truffle, but yet again it could been even better. Good.
Noix Macadamia - This was one of my favourites from the selection and combined an outer shell of milk chocolate with a praline nougatine filling and a single macadamia piece. The milk chocolate was creamy and flavoursome, and slowly revealed a drier, rougher feeling praline below. The nutty flavours of the praline were forthcoming and sweet, though it was the salty, buttery macadamia piece that made this truffle really stand out. Very classy indeed. Superb.
Praline Blanc - This was a simple hazelnut praline chocolate that was coated in a thickish layer of Godiva white chocolate. Just as I commented on with the other white chocolate pieces, the outer portion was decent with it's creamy, sweet flavour delivery and it proved a nice foil for the praline below. The praline centre didn't offer the grandest set of woody hazelnut flavours ever, but it did have a very desirable salty note within it's nuttiness that contrasted quite wonderfully with the sweeter tasting chocolate. Very Good.
Molleux Caramel Chocolat - This was one of the simpler chocolates from the selection and constituted of an outer shell of dark chocolate, with a caramel ganache centre. The dark chocolate outer portion provided a rich, unsweetened cocoa context from the outset and it melted at a slow pace to reveal a very chewy, soft centre. Texture wise the caramel centre was like a soft a version of a riesen chocolate, and it offered a subtle buttery set of toffee flavours. On the whole it was very tasty, however I think it could have been improved further by a dash of salt. Good.
Signature Blanc Cafe - Being a coffee lover this was obviously one piece I was really looking forward to trying (I did find this one on the Godiva site!). The white chocolate exterior provided a sugary, cream rooted flavour base to the initial melt, and it pleasantly softly flowed into the darker coloured ganache filling. This centre provided a more intensive cocoa experience, but I unfortunately found the coffee influence very mild and not the strength I hoped it would be. It was a nice truffle but it was disappointing due to it's lacking coffee kick. Standard.
Croustine - Despite its small size, this was a very intricately made piece that had several different constituents to it. The outer white chocolate established a cream based taste that was further compounded by the delicious praline nougatine inside. Placed within the praline, small bits of shortbread biscuit provided very unique crunchy, buttery flavours bursts, which added to the sugar hazelnut pieces on top made for a truffle that provided an extremely exciting flavour journey. Superb.
Overall I normally don't like rating or reviewing chocolates that I get given as gifts, however I feel more than comfortable in expressing the enjoyment I got from this truffle selection. Before I go overboard I should say that these weren't necessarily Hotel Chocolat or Galler beaters, but to say they belong in the same sort of league should give you some idea of how highly I thought of them. The standout pieces for me here were definitely the Croustine and the Noix Macadamia - both of which were nothing other than totally delectable. The rest of the chocolates were similarly high quality, however some of them didn't quite deliver the same flavour experiences that the other two aforementioned pieces did. The beauty of this review is that I have barely scratched the surface of what Godiva have to offer. I really look forward to my next experience with the brand - I can't envisage it will be all that long until that time. Thanks again Rose.
8.3 out of 10


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This 2014 Marquette Rosé was inspired by our love for rosé wine. It's off-dry, juicy and fruit forward with enough mouthwatering acidity to keep you looking for that next sip. Crafted from our higher-elevation Marquette grapes, it has just a hint of sweetness and a lovely watermelon, raspberry, lemon zest profile. Spring isn't the only time to drink rosé; one sip of this wine and you'll be drinking it all year round!
Grape Information: Marquette Rosé is made from Marquette grapes grown here at Fresh Tracks Farm, as well as a splash of our Adalmiina grapes. Marquette is a cousin to the Frontenac grape, and a "grandchild" of Pinot Noir. It continues to grow in popularity across colder wine regions for it's hardiness and wine quality.
Suggested Pairings: This wine is perfect for spring and summer gatherings, picnics, and as an accompaniment to an alpine cheese board. Try it with this Citrus Kale Salad, tabbouleh, buttery grilled corn, and more!
- Varietal: Marquette, Adalmiina
- Vintage: 2014
- Harvest Date: 10/6/14
- Bottle Date: 1/28/15
- Residual Sugar: 0.75%
Price: $15.99


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Basketball practices are held from December 3- March 11 and competition is held March 18-19, 2016. We have two practice groups: 9-10 AM for the advanced group and 10-11 AM for the beginner/intermediate group.
Probably our most popular sport, basketball attracts nearly 60 athletes and 15+ volunteers! Weekly practices are held at Holmes Junior High in Davis between December and March. We usually start the first Saturday in December.
Each year our teams do better and better at the Special Olympics Northern California Basketball tournaments!
Coach Mike Inchausti and Coach Christine Johnson have been our leaders for several years now. They are ably assisted by Willie Hall, Tom Hall and others. Our Basketball Team Manager is Steve Mahon.


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I couldn't have said it any better.
Originally posted by FlyersFan
Originally posted by RealSpoke
Here comes the right wing cheerleaders who are going to try and convince everyone it doesn't mean to kill...just you know, remove from office.
Here comes the left wing cheerleader RealSpoke, who is going to try to convince everyone it means to kill his guy Obama ... when it clearly says no such thing. Predictable.
Originally posted by RealSpoke
reply to post by jude11
Remove Osama = Killed
Remove he other in November = Kill
To pretend that you didn't get that, just not buying it. It's literally more than obvious.
Originally posted by Phenomium
I think they are implying that Obama is a true Muslim of the Islamic faith and so was Osama.
Originally posted by Resurected
Texas is full of drama queen hypocrites. They claim to be oh so patriotic yet they threaten to succeed everytime something happens they dont agree with. Let Mexico have them!
They are the states version of "Take my ball and go home" and you people are proud of that?edit on 25-8-2012 by Resurected because: (no reason given)
Originally posted by RealSpoke
reply to post by TDawgRex
Passive racism? I didn't say anything about RACE. Stop projecting your mentality in my posts. Right wing extremists hate what they call "commies", regardless of their race.
Originally posted by Mijamija
Wasn't Obama the guy who removed the "threat" in the first place?
This billboard infers seal team 6 took it upon themselves to waltz into Pakistan and kill Osama of their own accord. Everyone celebrates them for what they did, but they could have not have done anything without obamas approval.....
This billboard is so irrational, it says" let's remove the one guy from office who was responsible for taking out our nations biggest enemy" Last time I checked bush had 7 years and couldn't do it.....
You'd think all those who screamed for osamas blood, would be doing the happy dance that Obama took him out. That should be the one thing republicans respect him for, instead they give all the credit to the seals, who serve under obama. He is their commander in chief, and even if you can't stand any other thing about obama at least give him credit for getting that one thing right, republicans.
I think Obama is weak in many areas, but you cannot say this guy is weak on national security or defense. So, throw him a friggin bone republicans.......bash him on healthcare, govt spending, the weak economy, but this billboard is beyond stupid.
Originally posted by David134
Ahhhhhh really. I hope most of the comments about this sign are fueled by partasisim and not that you are not smart enough to see the infered meaning of voting in November. Really has the left gone that dumb? It amazes me how every time the worst is infered.
Originally posted by jude11
Originally posted by RealSpoke
Wow........let's imply to kill the president and people actually support it. Anyone that likes the sign is a terrorist. I hate Romney, and if this sign was towards him it would still be disgusting.
Did I miss something here? Where exactly does it imply killing the President?
Didn't even come across my mind when I first saw it and still doesn't. It is saying to make sure Obama doesn't get into office again with the ability to continue terrorizing Nations and Killing people at will. "Remove the other in November" covers that.
Funny how some here are upset because they believe it's about killing a Prez but no one has even argued the reference to him being a terrorist.
edit on 24-8-2012 by jude11 because: (no reason given)


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There are few people who have the luxury of saying they called the 2008 financial meltdown, but one of those people is Charles Geisst. Not only did he call the crash, he is the man that called it four years prior in a book entitled Undue Influence: How the Wall Street Elite Puts the Financial System at Risk.
Geisst is a professor of finance at Manhattan College and author of 15 books, including most recently Collateral Damage: The Marketing of Consumer Debt to America.
So, what's his outlook now? In short, Geisst thinks the outlook for economic recovery will be anemic since the bust is rooted in the financial system, which depends on the recovery of banks from Bank of America
What follows is an edited transcript of what he had to say.
Jennifer Schonberger: As someone who wrote a book foreshadowing the 2008 financial meltdown, what is your outlook now for the financial system?
Charles Geisst: It's not particularly rosy. Looking at the condition of Wall Street, they created the bull from 2000 to 2007. Securitization drove most of the net bond issues, the underwriting fees, and of course the bonuses that went with them. I don't think it will come back any time soon. Despite the fact that Goldman Sachs
Without credit being created, especially consumer credit -- mortgage credit, credit cards, or the inability now of credit card companies to sell their assets to the banks and securitize them -- I think that puts a damper on the consumer. Lop on the unemployment numbers, and I just don't think that we're in for a resounding recovery. I think we'll muddle along the way we are now.
Schonberger: What does recovery look like to you? L shaped, U shaped? W?
Geisst: I would think it's "L" shaped with the vertical on the left hand side. I think we've dropped down to this particular level where we are now and the tail on the L will remain long for some time.
Schonberger: So are we looking at a Japan scenario here?
Geisst: I think so.
Schonberger: Banks have largely neglected to take writedowns on commercial real estate-loans. How severe is this scenario in your view, and could we be facing a meltdown akin to the one last fall?
Geisst: Yes, to an extent. I think we're now better able to cope with it. At least now we have some mechanisms in place -- like them or not -- that we can use. But I think a lot of people are going to be surprised when the other shoe to drop, which hasn't dropped yet, is credit card receivables, which are going to get worse and worse. So I think when securitized commercial real estate [comes crashing down], credit cards are not going to perform particularly well, either.
Schonberger: Do you think there is a long-term secular shift taking place regarding consumer spending? In other words, once the recession abates and employment comes back, will spending remain muted, or will it snap right back as before?
Geisst: I don't think it's going to explode. I think a lot of people think the consumer isn't doing well because times are tough and unemployment is high, and that as soon as things get back to normal, they'll be buying two television sets again. I just don't see that.
The ironic part of this economic cycle, which happens so rarely, is that the only way it's going to change behavior is if there is at least one generation that changes its habits. The more severe that this becomes, the more likely they are to change their behavior.
If we were to get out of it tomorrow, things are going to go back to the way they were before. The longer this is prolonged, a generation will sober up -- much like in the Great Depression -- and say this sort of behavior can't continue.
Schonberger: To your point, in many ways this recession is very similar to a depression. Maybe we do experience 1%, 2%, or even 3% GDP growth, but it still seems like things are going to be pretty bad, unemployment is going to remain high for a while, and it's going to feel like a recession for an elongated period of time. Am I wrong?
Geisst: No, I think you're perfectly right. The one thing we can learn from looking back at American financial history is that our perception of the Great Depression is probably not psychologically correct.
We seem to think we have the ability with some good reason to recover from these things in real time very quickly. We recovered, for instance, from the stock market crash of 1987 relatively quickly; the rest of the world did not. In some places, it was much more severe and lasted much longer. We recovered from 2001 relatively quickly, considering -- not this time. This time it was a failure of financial institutions.
When the institutions fail, there's no telling how long it will take to get them back to health -- if some of them ever get there. So as a result, we as growth-oriented Americans are viewing this as a problem we can whip, and I'm not too sure it's true.
For related Foolishness:
Fool contributor Jennifer Schonberger owns shares of Bank of America, but she does not own shares of any of the other companies mentioned in this article. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


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Hypothesis: Gold will rise in dollar-terms as its major competitor currencies, the USD and EUR, are devalued when their governments inflate away the burden of debts but printing more fiat currency.
The boom-bust cycle is early in the boom phase for gold.
Analysis: The US government and Euro bloc countries will be forced to run deficits for the next 3-5 years, both to backstop banking losses (which are roughly 40-60% taken in the US and Euro, according to the IMF, not to mention the unsustainable social program spending that is expected soon. Medicare spending starts inching up in 2012, due to the first retiring boomers, and this will double all total outstanding US debt in 15 years (2012-2027). Until 2015, deficits will be about 12% in the US, and 4-12% in the Euro area (Germany is at 5% expected, Greece at 12% and above). See EU projections.
The only way the governments can meet their deficit spending is by:
i) Raising taxes and cutting spending. Some of this will happen on the margin, but spending is sticky and voters by their behavior prefer inflation to tax raises. Greece is the bellwether country for the PIIGS and European stability (testing the "no bailout" clause in the EMU pact).
ii) Borrowing money from the private sector, by crowding out through high interest rates or forced "gunpoint" borrowing. Note that in the US bank reserves have been held in USTs for the last 12 months - a shadow crowding out where private borrowers can't get money.
iii) By creating money through monetization/printing. The US did $300bn of this in October 2009, as the Fed admitted, and bought over $1,000bn in MBS and ABS.
When inflation worries reached their peak in the 1970s, gold reached an all-time, inflation-adjusted dollar high of about $2,200/oz.
Gold shouldn't be treated as an asset like land, stocks, or bonds. Rather, it's money. Money has 3 uses: a medium of exchange, a measure of value, and a store of value. Gold will never be as good a medium of exchange as USD and EUR currency and checks (I ignore the Yen and pound because they haven't been major reserve currencies in the last 50 years, and also the yuan as it isn't fully convertible). The transactions costs are too high (it's easy to pay with dollar and euro bills or use your Visa/Mastercard to pay in them). Gold probably won't be as good a measure of value, if inflation is relatively low (under 10% annually), as people can still compare goods and services using USD and EUR "markings." Yet as an arbitrary store of value, gold will do quite well, because it's supply is fixed and slightly declining, while the supply of dollars and euros is exploding.
A decent overview of the many writings on gold is here: "Is Gold a Reasonable Investment"
The World Gold Council puts out an interesting quarterly report on gold, available here: (but beware proponent bias).
Supply Analysis:
The amount of actual resources in the world, loosely measured by "wealth stock" and GDP, stays fixed and grows at a stable rate of 2-5% (world GDP growth, a wide band give my lack of economic forecasting ability). The total amount of the world gold stock has actually come down from Q1 2000 (33.4K tons) to Q1 2009 (29.7K tons). See the attached spreadsheet from the World Gold Council. As a "currency", the supply of gold has decreased. I assume it stays flat in the future, but if it keeps decreasing, all the merrier.
Compare this to the monetary base of the USD and EUR. The Fed's adjusted monetary base has grown from $875bn to $1900 bn (2.2x), and the M1 measure in the Eurozone has grown from Eur. 3.8trn to Eur. 4.5trn (1.2x). Gold, meanwhile, averaged between $600 to $700 an ounce from early 2006 to mid 2007. My key assumption is that gold's "fair price" is its average price before the monetary expansion of $650. Gold's price peaked at in December 2009 at ~$1200. Assuming gold tracks the USD monetary base expansion in 2008 and 2009, it's fair price should be, by a back of the envelope calculation: 2.2*650 = $1430 per ounce. Compared to the euro: 1.2*650 = $780 per ounce. That's a wide range. But just look at the direction. Deficits in both the US and Euro area are unsustainable. My simplistic logic is that if the supply of gold is fixed, its price rise must match the increase in the world's fiat currency system of the USD and EUR. If the US monetary base goes up another 50% from current levels, then I believe gold should be "worth" 1430*1.5 = $2145/oz. Simply put, gold is a horrible asset to hold in normal times, when inflation is low and governments are stable. It's a great (speculative, not investment) asset at macroeconomic turning points, like early in the Great Depression and in the 1970s as the US went off the gold standard and inflated away debts.
US: The entire residential and commercial real estate markets (and hence banking system) is being kept alive by two things, thanks to Bernanke. One, zero interest rates for the big banks, who then subsizide housing and governments while penalizing businesses. Two, massive MBS and CMBS purchases by the Fed, to the tune of $1.3trn (not a typo, that's trillion), which must on face end in March, but will realistically continue and likely be monetized in one way or another. Ever wonder why Bernanke looks so haggard? It's not just the Fed losing its independence - my guess is that he knows he'll have to monetize.
But gold as a percentage of the US monetary base is VERY VERY low (bad paper money is crowding out the good, glitterin' metallic kind - Gresham's law at work):
Euro Area: The Greece situation, where the govt. initially forecasted a 3% deficit and then said, "Hey, we were lying!" and then came up with 12%, shows that the Mediterranean PIGS are untrustworthy. Either the richer countries take on more deficits to bail out the PIGS, or they suffer political blowout and monetary collapse together - an unappealing choice. As much as the direct pressure on Bernanke is high, the pressures on the ECB are only getting hotter. Do you really think the ECB can stop accepting shoddy Greek banks' assets as collateral, triggering a run, or will they have to monetize losses away? My main point is, historical evidence shows gold supply is shrinking, but I conservatively estimate it stays flat. Strong historical evidence suggests government debt goes up by 80% and monetization occurs after the end of such a crisis, esp. when the 2 largest economies in the world are involved (the US and the Euro-area).
Demand Analysis:
Note that in 2008, jewelry demand fell by 245 tons, but bar/coin, retail, and ETF demand went up by 498 tons.
China, the world's biggest reserve holder, needs a safer place to put its safe money. Among hard assets, that's either land, natural resources (metals, oil, etc.) or gold. Consider the Chinese discussion:
"Li Lianzhong, who heads the economic department of the party's policy research office, said that China should use more of its $1.95 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves to buy energy and natural-resource assets. At a foreign exchange and gold forum, Li said buying land in the United States was a better option for China than buying US Treasury securities. "Should we buy gold or US Treasuries?" Li asked. "The US is printing dollars on a massive scale, and in view of that trend, according to the laws of economics, there is no doubt that the dollar will fall. So gold should be a better choice." (Jakarta Globe, http://thejakartaglobe.com/business/chinese-economist-urges-beijing-to-buy-more-gold/314403).
Guess what, the Chinese bought almost no US Treasuries in October 2009. Where will China's excess reserve buying go, besides Australian and African mines? Buying American land is politically radioactive, so the most fungible and safe currency-like asset is… gold. It's difficult to say how much of China's excess buying will be offset by fewer Indian jewelry purchases (but the Indian central bank, the RBI, has increased its gold purchases lately). Again, consider China's reserve growth from 600 tons to 1054 tons from 2008 to 2009. Do not expect China to blare in the markets about their current buying.
Finally, consider the smart money, the hedgies. Legendary names such as Paul Tudor Jones of Tudor Investment and David Einhorn, founder of Greenlight Capital have also been enthusiastic. Mr Jones, whose company manages more than $11bn in bonds, equities and commodities, told investors recently that it was time to buy the metal. "I have never been a gold bug," he wrote, but added: "It is just an asset that, like everything else in life, has its time and place. And now is that time." John Paulson, another well-known hedge fund manager, has adopted a similar view, telling investors he was concerned about the dollar. "So I looked for another currency in which to denominate my assets. I feel that gold is the best currency." http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c82be00c-e9af-11de-9f1f-00144feab49a,s01=1.html
Disconfirming Evidence and Arguments:
-Gold has risen from ~$300 in 2001 when central banks were selling to $1200 today when central banks are buying, a four-fold increase. Anytime any asset rises that much, you have to worry about a bubble.
-Gold yields nothing - it's not a productive asset. Hence it's tough to ever assign a fair value to it, through a DCF analysis, like stocks, bonds, and property. This is the best critique of gold. But then again, dollars and euros sitting in a bank don't yield anything either and it's tough to value them (despite the indecipherable moves of Fx market). Gold technically has a negative yield due to storage costs, unlike cash which banks will graciously hold for you today without charge.
-Historically gold has been highly correlated with oil prices, at about 0.70. If oil falls due to weak global growth or a second collapse, so will gold.
-Gold's day-to-day jewelry demand use, in India, seems to top out at $700 to $800/oz (buying dips significantly above those levels, as people substitute silver and other precious metals). I need to talk to more Indians in the jewelry business to see whether they are re-anchoring expectations to a new price, or substituting other metals and avoiding gold. Since jewelry demand is by far the highest portion of the annual gold demand (about 2/3), higher prices could put a natural dampener on this.
-It's unclear what gold's industrial value substitute $-level is, but here are the uses: http://www.miningweekly.com/article/gold-glitters-in-industrial-uses-2008-02-22
-The best critiques of gold come from the inimitable Professors Buiter and Roubini (but they see it as an asset, not as a currency): http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/11/gold-a-six-thousand-year-old-bubble/
Thursday, December 17, 2009
All that glitters... is GOLD - Alpha
Posted by Alpha at 10:25 PM
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Frida Bengtsson will present her Master's thesis entitled: "Prediction of fracture propagation in human femur using the finite element method" on 25/5, at 11:15 in E:1328. The supervisors are Lorenzo Grassi,...[läs mer]
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Dissertation: Hamid Behjat - Domain-Informed signal processing with application to analysis of human brain functional MRI data
On Thursday 26th of April, Hamid Behjat will defend his dissertation: Domain-Informed signal processing with application to analysis of human brain functional MRI data. The defence will take place in lecture...[läs mer]
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On the 16th of February, Hannicka Sahlstedt will present her Master's thesis titled: "Characterization of normal femoral anatomy in pediatric patients using statistical shape models" The presentation will be in E1328...[läs mer]


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Tribal Law and Order Act boosts tribal court sentencing authority (July 14, 2010)
Tribal courts will be able to impose three-year sentences under the Tribal Law and Order Act that passed the Senate on June 23. The Indian Civil Rights Act of 1968...
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Navajo soldier from Arizona succumbs to injuries in Afghanistan (July 14, 2010)
Chris Moon, a baseball star and former University of Arizona student who left school to enlist in the military, died on Monday after suffering injuries in Afghanistan. Moon, 20,...
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Yellow Bird: Indian reservation roads in desperate need of work (July 14, 2010)
"Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., held a Senate committee meeting in the tribal chambers of the Three Affiliated Tribes on July 8 in New Town, N.D. The meeting's purpose was...
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Editorial: Interior right to impose moratorium on offshore drilling (July 14, 2010)
"Despite legal challenges from industry, complaints from local politicians and bad rulings from unsympathetic judges, the Obama administration has rightly chosen to reaffirm its decision in May to suspend deep-water...
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Turtle Talk: A State Department payback on Iroquois passports? (July 14, 2010)
"So we should all be familiar with the Iroquois (Haudenosaunee) passports dispute (news articles here and here and here). Here's a possible reason (I say possible with the faintest of...
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Column: Pueblo leaders clean up at economic development firm (July 14, 2010)
"The governors of New Mexico's 19 pueblos have taken steps aimed at cleaning up the mess that is the Indian Pueblos Federal Development Corp. The housecleaning follows published reports that...
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Youth suicide prevention discussed at Honoring Life Conference (July 14, 2010)
About 200 people attended the Honoring Life Conference at a high school on the Navajo Nation on Wednesday. Tribal youth, educators and health specialists spoke about the need to prevent...
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The Te-Moak Tribe of Western Shoshone Indians of Nevada reburied a skull that had been left in a dumpster. The skull was found in April along with some other items....
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Sports Illustrated: Lacrosse a centerpiece of Iroquois way of life (July 14, 2010)
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The Iroquois Nationals Lacrosse Team expects to board a flight this afternoon to the 2010 World Lacrosse Championships in England after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton intervened in their...
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The Pascua Yaqui Tribe of Arizona said it will reconsider its relationship with the Tucson Unified School District after the closure of yet another school. The Richey Elementary primarily served...
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I almost don't know what to do with myself now that my college classes are over. Well, that isn't entirely true. My house is almost clean, which is one example of what I've been able to do to fill my time. Another time-filler involves reading. Ah! I'm finally getting back to the book I had to put on hold when the semester started, Third Wish by Robert Fulghum. This type of book is not the genre I normally turn to, but I'm finding it enjoyable nonetheless. It is a soothing lullaby story of how people's lives come together, become entangled, unravel, and eventually embrace each other once again. I'm about half way through the first volume. Not too bad for just picking it up again yesterday and having read twice as much as I did when I originally put it down. My husband tells me that I'm fast reader. Not true! I'm actually a slow reader. I take my time to digest and enjoy a book. I think it only appears that I'm reading fast when I find one I enjoy and can't it down for hours at a time.
The other time filler are my children. Oh and how wonderful a time filler they are! Last month they asked me if they could create a group. A learning group centered on history. Currently the kids are a part of the Colonial Williamsburg Electronic Field Trip Series. Last month the series was so outstanding the kids suggested that we make this a group effort. I thought it was a great idea and sent out a suggestion to others. The response was not as large as I would have hoped, but the friendships built today were awesome. The teens spent more time getting to know each other than they did talking about the Declaration of Independence, which is the topic of the next electronic field trip. However, that's okay, there's time to study later online. Because thanks to my LMIS training, I was able to quickly create a couple of wiki pages with links and activity suggestions for the teens in less than an hour. Plus, send out invites to boot.
I'm looking forward to my time off from school, but I'm also looking forward to seeing all creativity exhibited by these great teens over the next week, and of course finishing Third Wish and then tackling the stack of other books waiting for me to read.


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What do Shimon Peres, Warren Buffett and Sidney Poitier have in common? Join NetApp Vice Chairman, Tom Mendoza, as he talks about embracing change in your life – the fourth element that makes NetApp's culture so unique.
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Fenton, MI - Michigan's premier winch event returns to the front pond of Action Water Sports for an up close wakeboard and wakeskate competition in the front pond. Registration kicks off at 10am giving riders the first opportunity to meet a newly designed rail adding a new element to this year's contest. Jam Style qualifying will begin in the afternoon as guys, girls and wakeskate divisions attempt to qualify for the "under the lights" finals later on in the evening. Winch Wars is Michigan's largest wakeboard contest with over $5000 in cash and prizes. Riders can now register for just $25 for the wakeskate, advanced wakeboard, women wakeboard and pro wakeboard division paying out.When: August 8th from 10:00 - 9:00 PMWhere: Action Water Sports - 8051 Old US-23, Fenton, MI 48430Cost: $25/division Schedule• 10:00: Registration Opens• 11:00 – 2:00: Practice• 3:00 - 6:00: Jam style qualifying• 7:00 - 10:00: Head to head finals Prize PayoutPro• 1st - $750 Cash• 2nd - $500 Cash• 3rd - $300 Cash Advanced• 1st - Wakeboard of your choice up to $500• 2nd - GoPro Hero3+ Camera• 3rd - $300 prize pack Women's Wakeboard• 1st - Wakeboard of your choice up to $500• 2nd - $400 prize pack• 3rd - $300 prize pack Wakeskate• 1st - Wakeskate of your choice up to $300• 2nd - $200 prize pack• 3rd - $100 prize pack Action Water Sports is located just west of the US-23 Highway at 8051 Old US-23, Fenton MI 48430 Event sponsors include MasterCraft, Red Bull, Hyperlite, CWB, Liquid Force, Ronix, Go-Pro, Quiksilver, Billabong,Summit Marine, Sanuk, Duvin, O'Neill, SunBum, Oakley, Roswell and Global Marine Insurance. Call AWS for details at 810-629-1342, visit actionwater.com or the Facebook event page.
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Feral Cat Webcam
The Feral Cat Webcam offers a glimpse into the life of a feral cat colony in Chicago, Illinois. Watch as these neutered feral cats interact with each other, eat, sleep, and play.
Why the Feral Cat Webcam?
Feral cats do not like to eat in front of their humans. We started this webcam to monitor who's eating, and when new cats come into the colony who may need to be Trap Neuter and Returned, TNR'ed. Common to the colony these days are Grey cat, Bouncy Bear, Funny Face, and you may even see the elusive Puffy McWondertail the long haired Snuffalufagus.
Learn More
To learn more about the cats of the colony, and how they are cared for, visit the James Gang Colony page. Find out more about Trap Neuter Return, and how it is the humane way to lower outside, feral cat populations, visit our Resources section.