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WEEK 1 Declutter Your Past
How to recognise, clear and heal your unhealthy relationship patterns. traumas and beliefs even if you don't know where or how to start!
This masterclass covers these topics:
- Why is early childhood so important?
- What are our physical and emotional needs?
- What is our Inner Child?
- How to connect to our Inner Child.
WEEK 2 Reframing Rejection
How to open up again to love even if you fear being rejected and fear not being enough.
This masterclass covers these topics:
- Why do we fear rejection so much?
- How does rejection link to childhood?
- Understanding your limiting beliefs.
- How to use your Emotional Guidance System.
WEEK 3 The Faith Formula
How to trust in men even if you've been hurt by lying, cheating or being taken advantage of too many times before.
This masterclass covers these topics:
- What is trust?
- How trust and self confidence are linked.
- How to start trusting again.
- Completing the grief cycle to heal through loss.
WEEK 4 Relationship Clarity Codes
How to get over being afraid of getting into the wrong relationship even if you've made bad choices in the past.
This masterclass covers these topics:
- Examining the relationship to yourself.
- Doing Mirror Work.
- What is your Shadow Side?
- Embodying your Shadow Side.
WEEK 5 The Self-Love Hack
How to fully love and accept all of yourself to be a man magnet even if you've been hating on yourself for years.
This masterclass covers these topics:
- Barriers to self-love.
- Meeting Your Inner Critic.
- Tools and practices on how to befriend your Inner Critic.
WEEK 6 The Confidence Cultivator
How to build inner confidence to walk up to any attractive man without the fear of rejection even if the idea paralyses you right now.
This masterclass covers these topics:
- What really is confidence?
- How everything we have learnt so far builds confidence.
- NLP (Neuro-Linguistic Programming) based confidence hacks.
WEEK 7 Feminine Attraction Secrets
How to cultivate your feminine energy easily to attract a masculine man even if you feel unsexy and overly masculine
This masterclass covers these topics:
- What is feminine energy?
- How to cultivate your feminine energy.
- Feminine Embodiment Practices.
- Feminine Secrets to attract a conscious healthy masculine man.
WEEK 8 The Red Flag Guidebook
How to discern between red flags and your own insecurities even if you don't trust your own judgement
This masterclass covers these topics:
- What are red flags?
- What are triggers?
- Understanding the psychology of attraction.
- Man manifestation practices.
WEEK 9 Make Men Commit
How to attract men that are ready to commit and know instantly if this man is the right one for you, even if it's never happened to you before
This masterclass covers these topics:
- Difference between how Men and Women think.
- What do men want?
- How to build attraction in men.
- How to know if he is into you.
WEEK 10 The Playful Dating Handbook
How to own the fuck out of the dating game even if you are frustrated and disheartened by dating right now.
This masterclass covers these topics:
- Understanding what Dating really is.
- Intentional Dating.
- How to have fun on dates.
- How to flirt.
- Creating a Man Funnel.
WEEK 11 The Healthy Relationship Manual
How to have a healthy relationship using communication tools to deepen intimacy even if you've never had a healthy relationship in the past.
This masterclass covers these topics:
- What is a healthy relationship?
- How do you CREATE a healthy relationship?
- Love Languages + Attachment Styles
- What is Conscious Communication?
WEEK 12 Desire Games
How to keep the attraction flame alive for days, weeks, months, years to have meaningful sex and deep connection forever, even if the spark died for you in the past.
This masterclass covers these topics:
- What is the difference between Emotional & Physical Intimacy?
- Intimacy Inhibitors & Intimacy Accelerators.
- Understanding the relationship to your Sexuality
- Desire & Arousal - How to cultivate it.
- Masculine + Feminine Polarity Dynamics.
- Conscious Uncoupling Process.
The most in depth and fun training about love you'll ever need.
If you never had to feel insecure, doubting, afraid of rejection, hating on yourself and fearing being single....would you want that?


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Thinking About Resigning After Maternity Leave? Here's What You Need To Know
How Women Decide Whether or Not to Resign After Maternity Leave
It is no secret that balancing a family and a job can feel like a circus act. As more and more couples start as a dual-income household, the arrival of a baby may prompt a conversation about whether someone will resign. There are a number of reasons we will discuss about why women are statistically more likely to resign from their jobs after having a baby. In this article, we will help you ask the necessary questions and give you information to help guide your path as a new mom if you're thinking about resigning after maternity leave. Spoiler alert: This is about figuring out what is best for you and your family. There is no right answer.
Some women find that once they birth their baby, their desire to be at home rises. In this case, families can look at the factors to see if they can make a way for the mother to stay at home. Other women find that they feel like a better mom when they are working. For these families, they must evaluate the factors to find a way to secure care while the parents work. For other families, the potential of a stay-at-home-dad or non-birthing partner brings up other aspects of finances, time, purpose and more.
Women Are More Likely to Resign Than Their Male Co-Workers
According to a recent LinkedIn Working Together study, nearly half of working women take time off beyond their allotted maternity leave. The study found the average break to be around 2 years. Consistently in studies around work and family, results find that women are more likely to take time off than male counterparts.
Breastfeeding & Caregiving
In companies that do not have an accommodating policy around pumping breaks and a comfortable place to pump, the desire to continue breastfeeding may be a factor for moms. While a mother should not have to choose between continuing her breastfeeding journey and being in the workplace, unfortunately, many still feel this tension. Women also tend to take on more of the caregiving responsibility for a newborn, which translates into the months and years after giving birth. If a family is unable to find a care taking option they are comfortable with, this can play a big role in the decision of whether to resign or return to work.
Breadwinner & INcome gap
Unfortunately, there is still an income gap in many industries. This income gap between males and females in the workplace leaves many women feeling more pressure to leave the workplace for financial reasons. According to Payscale, in 2020 women earned 81 cents for every dollar earned by men. If a heterosexual couple is making decisions around family, finance, and work, this can leave women more likely to resign.
Societal Expectations
A lot of progress has been made over the last few years around work, parenting, and shared responsibilities. However, there is still a general understanding that the birthing mother takes on more of the caregiving role and is quicker to turn in a resignation letter. There's consistently marketing and messaging to women about how to "do it all" while actually burning women out. One area of progress that is reflected in societal statistics is that of stay-at-home-dads. Pew Social Trends indicates that from 1989-2021 the amount of SAHDs (stay-at-home-dad) doubled. It is predicted that this number has continued to rise.
Factors that May Impact a Parent Resigning After Having a Baby
In the US, there is no guaranteed structure for childcare after having a baby. Many families find themselves seeking childcare openings while they are pregnant or even while trying to conceive. Availability and affordability play a big role in making choices for work and family after having a baby. For many women, including myself as a first-time mom, the cost of childcare was so near to the take-home pay, that there was little income after paying for childcare. This was the main force that drove me out of the workplace and one I hear echoed from many mothers.
If your childcare facility closes at 5, and you are expected to be at your workplace until 5, that is not going to work. Or, if you have to use up all of your sick time and PTO for maternity leave, that leaves no flexibility for pediatrician appointments, ear infections, personal illness and other needs. Lack of flexibility in the workplace may contribute to the discussion around whether to resign after having a baby.
Some parents feel they must return to work after having a baby in order to maintain benefits. With healthcare and other benefits tied to the workplace, this can be a big factor in the need to return to work after having a baby.
The financial need of the family can sway you to stay in the workplace if the finances exceed the costs of return. Or, they can sway you to resign from your job, at least temporarily, if the cost of returning goes beyond the take-home pay opportunity. For some families, this means reevaluating the budget and making cuts. For others, it means reevaluating the work and home set up to find a more accommodating way.
Relationship With Employer
For those who know they want to return to their career after maternity leave or an extended stay, maintaining the relationship with the employer becomes a priority. If you are on a career path that requires recommendations, possible promotions, etc. you may face the tension of whether you can take an extended time off without repercussions.
It's unfortunate that these factors often play such a big role in a woman's decision around work after having a baby. A decision that should be rooted in your family's values and desires can be skewed by things like childcare, finances, relationship, flexibility, and benefits. Again, this decision is about what's best for you and your family.

subset: commoncrawl


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Eyes Spy
Those who litter in Japan should be aware: a creepy fence sign is watching you desecrate… or so it would appear. Who can say whether a hidden CCTV camera actually records what goes down at this Japan Railways (JR) parking lot, or if its just a graphic psyche-out? Either way, best save that trash for the first available bin lest those eerie eyes aim their accusing gaze in your direction. (image via Flickr member Michelle Lai Lai)
Trash Fascist
Well, we did "not-see" this coming. Someone left a slightly over-the-top and likely handmade anti-littering sign taped to a trashcan at the 2010 Rally for Sanity at LA's MacArthur Park. Good thing someone didn't leave any cakes out in the rain, but we digress. The point is, littering is er, nasty so don't be a patsy. (image via Flickr member Al Pavangkanan)
Smokers are some of the most prolific litterers around, because who wants to carry around a smelly, ashy, possibly-still-smoldering cigarette butt in their pocket or pocketbook? Even the act of bringing those coffin nail stubs to the nearest trash bin seems to be too taxing for these wheezin' geezers. It's so much easier to simply flick that butt… but don't try that in Brunswick County, NC, where such things are frowned upon. In fact, DO refrain from flicking butts wherever you are, even if you don't smoke. Not only is it just common courtesy, it could also keep you from being slapped. (image via Flickr member Lee Quillen)
Bungled in the Jungle
Rainforests are the lungs of our planet so be a good global citizen and help Mother Nature breathe easier. This sign advising people to avoid trashing the jungle makes perfect sense, regardless if the jungle is in primeval sub-Saharan Africa, the humid depths of the Amazon basin, or… in Woburn, England? Hey, think global and act local, amiright? (image via Flickr member Dave Crosby)
EM Mess
OK, we're not really sure what's going on with this sign but just to be sure, don't even think about littering here or you might find yourself taking a one-way ride in a funnel-web spider infested Australian ambulance. The latter, by the way, might be a ute and if you don't know what that is, go and ask your cousin Vinny. (image via Flickr member Michael Coghlan)
Want to know what's more fun than a barrel of Manx's? Check out Kit'n Barrel: Recycled Wine Barrel Cat Beds!


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Nephrons of pig kidney are as much universe
as A flat diminished sixth above Middle C
which is why, if it weren't for the silly food and water,
you and I would never have to leave our house, the low
warbling rooms of our mouth where we reside beneath
delicate gray air that coats the ceiling with transparent
lace. Oh there is a colony of movement under arm,
treasures of uncertainty in how we comb our hair
that could hold us for all the days we have left.
In grade eleven at my school we dissected fetal pigs and
I had this crush on my dissection partner. I loved how
when we were at our desks, his behind mine, that
his knees found my hips lightly as our teacher reviewed
pharyngeal gill slits, tubular dorsal nerve chords.
At black counters, whatever we sliced open had everything,
each everything through which our fingers swam
like cells in the primordial slurry of our ancestry,
amniotic goo of all of us, knowing that the paradigm
that says infinitesimal is antithesis of infinity
is beyond the reach of whatever scalpel we choose.


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Our bulbs are bright, vibrant and devoid of ghosting and flickering to better illuminate the plastics and inserts of your machine. 44 and 555 base Flex Head LEDs come TEN to a pack, 906 base Flex Head flashers come FIVE to a pack.


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SARPY COUNTY, Neb. (KMTV) -- — New concerns for a lake community already impacted twice by flooding this year.
People with homes at Hanson, Chris, and Betty Lakes in Sarpy County along the Platte River want Burlington Northern Sante Fe to clean up large pieces of debris underneath their railroad bridge.
They worry another high-water event could create a make-shift dam and force the water back into their neighborhood.
All the lakes were flooded in March, and a few flooded again in May.
"I was devastated I had two places, there was nothing to save but there's people that have rebuilt, there's people that didn't have insurance that are on their last dollar fixing their place and I hate for anybody to go through this again especially when it can be preventable," said Dan Steyskal, a Hanson Lake resident.
BNSF does have workers clearing the east side of the bridge, but they can't get to the west side where the debris is building.
KMTV contacted BNSF Railway to find out what they are doing to remove the debris but didn't hear back on Friday.


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Adventures in the New Humanities: Galleries and Museums 101
This post is part of a blog series, 'Adventures in the New Humanities,' by Judy Kutulas, the Boldt Family Distinguished Teaching Chair in the Humanities.
Art galleries, Flaten Art Museum Director and Curator Jane Becker Nelson '04 assured my American Studies class, are essentially white cubes designed to present art in neutral spaces. But, she asked, are they truly neutral? For a second, my class wasn't sure how to respond or whether a response was necessary. For most of them, this was a step into the unknown — and however excited they were about being somewhere beside the classroom, they were still a little nervous about what was expected of them. I could sense their hesitation, and willed them to volunteer answers to her question.
I needn't have worried. Her question engaged them, as did her introduction to the Flaten Art Museum exhibit More Than That, where artists of color play with assumptions about race and identity. My class looked at pieces, offered opinions, and Jane deftly helped them dig deeper. She reassured them that there were no right answers and got excited when people offered other perspectives on the works. My students came out of the gallery feeling smarter than when they walked in and more confident of their ability to tackle the next curated display.
Most of us started to practice museum-going as children. Museums are a ubiquitous cultural presence across the globe. They are opportunities to document, celebrate, and teach visitors. Parents and educators gravitate to them as learning tools that are also entertaining. Art classes result in art shows and brave art teachers take their classes to art galleries or museums to further their artistic educations. Who can forget those magic words, "field trip"? Family travel often features museums, especially if we broaden our definition of museums to include parks, which are really outdoor museums with rangers and interpretive centers to help us understand the natural world. On vacations, your parents probably stopped at a few historical markers to let you literally stand in the footsteps of history.
Museums are a ubiquitous cultural presence across the globe. They are opportunities to document, celebrate, and teach visitors.
Museums and galleries have positive social value. They are no longer the purview of the leisured classes seeking culture or tourists rushing through the Louvre, ticking off the famous works of art before buying postcards to boast about seeing them. Today's museums enhance our understanding of how the world works and depict the struggles and victories of its various inhabitants or, I suppose, in the case of the International UFO Museum and Research Center, other worlds. Interpretive centers explain the natural phenomena that produce the views 19th-century Americans regarded as "sublime." Galleries invite us to think about what's in those neutral white cubes.
Modern museums, moreover, are individualized, democratic, and interactive. There are opportunities to touch, to watch informational videos, to rent and listen to digital guides, to follow human guides, and sometimes to interact with reenactors. Museums are more kid-friendly, too, especially those with the word "children's" in their name. Most of our students arrive at the college as museum veterans. And it is our job to extend and encourage the idea that museums are a good thing.
Museums and galleries are a liberal arts education in a nutshell. They are about the arts, science, history, social phenomena, and just about anything in between. They are general education extended and expanded across a person's lifetime. Unlike actual GE, though, they are not mandatory. Thus we must take advantage of our short time with our students to encourage the lifelong practice of museum-ing.
These days that's an especially important responsibility since we live in an intensely-curated world, one where we are both curators and consumers of the curated. We post our best photos on Instagram and commemorate what were once private moments with carefully staged events meant for public consumption like gender-reveal parties and prom-posals. Display is everywhere, documenting the history of public spaces, whether natural or made by humans. I just ate lunch in a Minneapolis restaurant that featured a pictorial history of the space in which I was about to be seated.
Instilling a love of museums may seem like just one more task in a long line of tasks previous generations of college professors probably didn't worry about. Nobody goes to college to train for art crawls, and nobody's parent regards museum-going as a critical life skill worth the price of college admission. Museums and galleries, though, are an integral part of lives full of experiences rather than things, meaning rather than status. It goes without saying that we want our students to have socially useful careers that compensate them well, deep respect for their planet and its inhabitants, past, present, and future, and ethical and caring value systems that encourage good citizenship. We also want them to continue to be curious, to explore thoughtfully, and to keep on learning. We want them to use their leisure to nourish their spirits and intellects.
Museums and galleries facilitate such nourishment. They are places where logic, intuition, and imagination come together, and if you don't believe that, you've never been to Meow Wolf in Santa Fe. Museums and galleries should have little to do with how we make our livings and everything to do with who we are.
Campus is teeming with "museums," holding art, snippets of the past, and curated aspects of the present.
Campus is teeming with "museums," holding art, snippets of the past, and curated aspects of the present. You can see mugs in the Ron Gallas Cup Library and old computers in the basement of Rolvaag. There is art on the walls of Holland Hall and informative posters in Regents Hall. When you walk the St. Olaf Natural Lands, there are signs to help you identify the flora. Off-campus courses are secretly living museum immersions. We are but a way station on our students' lifelong museum experiences.
As educators, we have altered our pedagogies to give students more display and curatorial experiences. There are internships, assignments that use digital tools, and class hours in the makerspace. Poster sessions often represent the culmination of research. A good part of Jane Becker Nelson's time is given over to leading classes in gallery discussions or helping students have curatorial experiences. Remodeled Holland Hall invites professors to display their individuality on display shelves, which are wonderful conversation-starters during office hours. Collecting, as Professor of English Mary Titus tells her classes, has its own scholarship.
Whatever their specific experiences with museums while on campus, the education we provide should help promote a lifelong interest in the leisure pursuits that will keep sending our graduates back to museums. It's baked right into the liberal arts and, in particular, the idea of general education. A student focus group recently endorsed the idea of us pushing our charges into areas of the curriculum they probably wouldn't visit otherwise, which is a pretty good endorsement of the value of the liberal arts for expanding horizons. This has not been a humanities-centered post because the whole of the St. Olaf education provides the sort of broad-based, curiosity-inspiring, critical-thinking liberal arts experience that will continue to grow as our grads add experiences of their own and as they take their progeny to museums and galleries.
The whole of the St. Olaf education provides the sort of broad-based, curiosity-inspiring, critical-thinking liberal arts experience that will continue to grow as our grads add experiences of their own and as they take their progeny to museums and galleries.
Here comes my pitch: Take a walk around campus and discover just how many opportunities there are to see, read, or experience something new. More Than That is thought-provoking and on display in the Flaten Gallery until April 14 — plenty of time to catch on your own or with your class. It is part of a city-wide collection of exhibits welcoming the National Council of Ceramic Educators Association's Claytopia conference in Minneapolis. The Northfield Arts Guild also has three clay-related exhibits, including Cell Persona, our own Paul Briggs' exploration of incarceration's impact on black lives, and a To the Top! display of mugs including the work of yours truly.
Northfield is also teeming with non-clay exhibits, galleries, and displays. Learn more about Jesse James without the crowds at the Northfield Historical Society or go there and learn something about Northfield that doesn't involve Jesse James. Did you know Antiques of Northfield has a collection of vintage TV lamps? There's local art displayed everywhere from the Ole Store to the Northfield Senior Center. It's spring and the sidewalks — which in Northfield are filled with poetry — are finally clear of ice and snow. Museums and galleries are calling you.
Judy Kutulas is a professor of history at St. Olaf College, where she teaches in the History Department and the American Studies program, along with American Conversations. She is the Boldt Family Distinguished Teaching Chair in the Humanities, charged with helping to revitalize humanities teaching and learning at the college. Read her inaugural 'Adventures in the New Humanities' blog post here.


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Natural Hazards
Natural hazards drive concerns for risk management in the Spirit Lake and Toutle River system. This chapter summarizes these hazards, discusses the state of knowledge about them, and considers how they integrate within a decision framework. The understanding of these natural hazards, their probabilities of occurring, and their potential magnitude is the foundation for risk management in the region. The literature concerning the hazards is large. The recent report by Grant et al. (2016a) surveys that literature.
Following the 1980 eruption, the initial and pressing concern was the possibility that Spirit Lake might breach its debris blockage and create a cataclysmic, sediment-laden flood in the Toutle River valley and the Cowlitz River plain. This possibility was much in the minds of cognizant agencies and of affected parties. Geologic evidence from ancient eruptions led to the reasonable belief that a breakout flood was possible and with precedence in the geologic record (e.g., Scott and Janda, 1982). The consequences of a breakout flood could be enormous. Furthermore, engineering calculations at the time supported the geologic record, confirming the extent of inundation and the depth of sediment deposition that might be expected from a breakout flood (Swift and Kresch, 1983).
Today, the initial concern over a breakout flood has partially abated given the 35-year history of successful management of Spirit Lake drainage. At least three natural hazards need to be considered, however, in the management of the Spirit Lake and Toutle River system. For these to be explicitly considered in a decision framework (see Chapters 6-8), three issues present themselves:
- The set of hazards that potentially affect the system and lead to downstream effects;
- The annual probability of each hazard and its severity; and
- The potential downstream consequences should a hazard event occur.
The probability of a given hazard affecting the system increases as the time frame of consideration grows longer. Processes with low annual probabilities, but possibly large impacts, become increasingly likely as the planning time frame grows longer. Thus, it is important to define the time frame early in the decision-making process because it affects planning. A great deal of data collection and analysis was performed in the early years following the 1980 eruption. These investigations have continued, but less intensively, and a number of uncertainties remain. Some of these affect risk management and the decision-making framework, as discussed in Chapters 6-8.
Three sources of natural hazards that affect management of the Spirit Lake and Toutle River system are discussed in this chapter as well as the hazards that affect management of the Spirit Lake tunnel and the sediment retention structure (SRS). These are meteorological, volcanic, and seismic. These three could result in or exacerbate any issues related to the management of sediment and water transport in the Spirit Lake and Toutle River system; thus, their probabilities and impacts need to be thoroughly understood to make wise management decisions. Two other natural hazards are considered in the Cowlitz County Hazards Mitigation Plan: landslides and wildfire (Cowlitz County Department of Emergency Management, 2013). Each is of importance as it may affect sediment delivery, runoff, and nutrients. This report, however, focuses on meteorological, volcanic, and seismic hazards because of the greater likelihood of their region-wide impacts. Moreover, because of the 1980 eruption's effect on the location and availability of fuels in the upper Toutle River, fire is not as much of an issue and will not be for some time (USDA Forest Service, 1997).
The first part of this chapter summarizes the natural hazards, risks, and state of understanding associated with meteorological, volcanic, and
seismic events and a summary of our understanding of the debris blockage and the catastrophic flooding that could occur as a result of its failure. The adequacy of information related to all these topics is described. The text continues with a discussion of how hazards can be integrated using probabilistic hazard assessments and how a probabilistic assessment fits into a decision framework. Information needs are also discussed. The chapter concludes with a brief discussion related to ongoing monitoring.
As has been discussed earlier in this report, the Toutle River valley and lower Cowlitz River plain are subject to both chronic and catastrophic flooding. Chronic flooding—the severity of which is affected by a combination of meteorological inputs (e.g., rainfall, rain-on-snow events), sediments already in the system, and management of those sediments—results from the normal hydrological regime. Precipitation falling on the Toutle River basin is large enough to generate large river discharges. Average annual precipitation varies from approximately 50 inches (127 cm) at Castle Rock, elevation 60 feet (20 m), to approximately 120 inches (305 cm) at Mount St. Helens and Spirit Lake, elevation 3,400 feet (1,036 m), averaging about 75 inches (190 cm) over the entire basin (West Consultants, 2002). The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' (USACE's) flood risk management (FRM) in the Toutle River and Cowlitz River areas addresses chronic flooding. This includes the SRS as well as the extensive system of levees in the lower Cowlitz River plain and intermittent dredging.
More important in the context of chronic flood generation is the precipitation that falls during the wettest years and the combination of warm precipitation on snow, which may accompany those larger storms. Thus, an important determinant of flood potential is the accumulation of water stored in snowpacks. Based on data collected at snow courses in the vicinity of Mount St. Helens, Dunne and Leopold (1981) found that median snow water equivalents on April 1 ranged from 47 inches (120 cm) at an elevation of 3,510 feet (1,070 m) to 118 inches (300 cm) at an elevation of 6,100 feet (1,860 m). In extreme years the maximum storage can rise to as
much as 79 inches (200 cm) at lower elevations and 157 inches (400 cm) at higher elevations. Snow depths are subject to rapid melting during warm rainstorms—events known as atmospheric rivers and often referred to as the "Pineapple Express" (see Figure 4.1). As an important flood generation mechanism in the coastal American West, these narrow zones of the atmosphere transport large volumes of warm, moist air from the subtropics over the mountainous watersheds of the Pacific coast, generating heavy rain accompanied by rapid snowmelt.
The post-eruption condition of the Toutle River valley has another important effect on flood hazard in the settled parts of the Toutle River and lower Cowlitz River valleys, namely, as a source of sediment that can settle in the Cowlitz channel and reduce the flood conveyance capacity of the engineered levee system between Castle Rock and the Columbia River confluence (see Figure 4.2). The USACE has periodically dredged these river reaches for the purposes of flood risk management. As has been described earlier, a principal rationale for the construction of the SRS was to retain this sediment load higher in the Toutle River basin.
Effect of Changing Climate
Changing global climate adds uncertainty in assessments of flood hazards in this region. An increase in the frequency of flood-generating weather events is likely. While projected changes in precipitation are small, temperatures are projected to increase through the end of the century, leading to a transition of snow to rain and more flooding (Mote and Salathé, 2010). Seasonal cycles responsible for heavy precipitation are also projected to
intensify. The expected warming atmosphere will increase atmospheric water vapor, which is projected to increase the frequency of days the most extreme atmospheric rivers are generated by up to 290% by 2100 (Warner et al., 2014).
Impacts of Chronic Floods
The area potentially at risk from chronic flooding extends north from the confluence of the Columbia and Cowlitz Rivers and east along the Toutle River to the confluence of the North Fork Toutle and Green Rivers. The lower reaches of the Cowlitz River include the cities of Castle Rock, Lexington, Kelso, and Longview, Washington, before entering the Columbia River. The area at risk also includes approximately 1.25 miles (2 km) of the Columbia River extending from its confluence with the Cowlitz River to the Columbia River navigation channel.
Populated areas in the region are primarily in Cowlitz County. Managed areas along the Cowlitz River include portions of Longview, Kelso, Lexington, and Castle Rock, with a total population of approximately 50,000 (see Table 4.1). Property in the leveed areas has a value of approximately $3.65 billion (USACE, 2014).
Adequacy of Existing Information
The current level of information on chronic flood hazard in the Toutle and Cowlitz Rivers and on the management of flood risks is similar to that in most river basins managed by the USACE (see Table 4.2). There is uncertainty, however, about the importance of changing climate on the hydrology of the system and its effects on chronic flooding. This uncertainty is likely to be similar to that in other flood-managed basins across the country.
One characteristic of the Toutle River system that makes it unique is the existence of the SRS and the sediments stored behind it. A large magnitude earthquake could change the behavior of the sediments behind the SRS (e.g., as a result of earthquake-induced liquefaction) and change the
TABLE 4.1 Inventory of Levees and Authorized Levels of Protection in the Cowlitz River Plain and Corresponding Annual Probabilities of Floods Exceeding the Level of Protection (LOP)
Levee Location | Owner | Authorized LOP (yrs)a | Annual Exceedance Probability of Floodinga | Length (miles)b | 2010 City Populationc |
Castle Rock | City of Castle Rock | 118 | 0.0085 | 1.5 | 2,140 |
Lexington | Lexington Flood Control Zone District of Cowlitz County | 167 | 0.006 | 2.7 | NA |
Kelso | Cowlitz County Consolidated Diking Improvement District No. 3 and the Drainage Improvement District No. 1 | 143 | 0.007 | 5.7 | 11,925 |
Longview | Cowlitz County Consolidated Diking Improvement District No. 1 | 167 | 0.006 | 2.4 | 36,648 |
aData from USACE, 2009.
bData from USACE, 2010b.
cU.S. Census Bureau. Settlement of Lexington is not included as an entity in the U.S. Census.
TABLE 4.2 Existing Natural Hazards Information on Chronic Flooding
Existing information | Annual probabilities of fluvial flooding; estimates of impacts from chronic flooding; estimates of sediment yields; assessments of levels of flood protection provided by the levee system. |
Strengths | Historical data on flood frequencies and severity in the system are reasonably complete. These assessments follow normal USACE practice for FRM. |
Weaknesses | Uncertainty in sediment yields into the Toutle River; some uncertainties regarding impacts of climate change and possibly regarding the impacts of large seismic events on releases from the SRS. |
SOURCES: Dunne and Fairchild, 1984; Lombard, 1986; USACE, 2009, 2010a,c.
probability of chronic flooding should a large meteorological event occur. The simultaneous occurrence of a large magnitude earthquake and a large meteorological event is less probable than either event occurring singly, but simultaneous occurrence could result in greater changes in sediment behavior.
The geologic setting of the region, including volcanism, is described in Chapter 2. Consideration of volcanic activity in a decision framework has two main components: (1) defining hazards that affect the Spirit Lake and Toutle River system resulting in downstream impacts and (2) defining the annual probability of each. Individual volcanic eruptions can produce multiple hazards processes or types. Some volcanic processes associated with certain types of eruptions may not affect the Spirit Lake and Toutle River system and thus can be ignored. For example, dome building activity similar to the 2004-2008 episode may have no effect on that watershed, and it may not need to be addressed in detail.
Volcanic activity can produce several hazards, each with unique physical impacts on the Spirit Lake and Toutle River watershed and infrastruc-
ture within. These may extend downstream as far as the SRS and well beyond. The emphasis here in this discussion is on hazards that could affect management decisions regarding the Spirit Lake drainage and the SRS. The list appears generic in that Mount St. Helens is capable of producing the full range of volcanic hazards. These hazards include
- Tephra fallout, which are deposits produced by direct fallout of particles (e.g., pumice, ash, lithics) from a high-standing volcanic plume ~10-20 miles (~15-30 km). Such deposits blanket the landscape in the downwind direction during an eruption. In the case of the Spirit Lake and Toutle River system, impacts could include choking of the Spirit Lake tunnel intake with pumice floating in the lake and introduction of abundant loose material onto parts of the watershed, which can be remobilized rapidly by surface water flow and dramatically increase the sediment flux to the SRS.
- Pyroclastic flows, which are very hot ash, lava fragments, and gases that are explosively ejected from the volcano, typically at high speeds. They are more limited in extent than tephra fallout are and would most likely form a new fan of unconsolidated deposits on the pumice plain (see Figure 2.7). Some might reach and directly introduce material into Spirit Lake, but assuming no major topographic changes in the area, most would likely contribute to increased sediment flux into the Toutle River and the SRS if flow deposits are remobilized in tributaries of the North Fork Toutle River by alluvial or fluvial processes. Pyroclastic flows could rapidly melt snow from the crater and the pumice plain and evolve into a lahar of a magnitude that could arrive at the sediment plain upstream from the SRS (Denlinger, 2011).
- Lava flows produced by Mount St. Helens during recent eruptive episodes mostly have involved highly viscous magma that formed domes around the vent and flowed only a few hundred meters, as, for instance, during the 2004-2008 eruptive episode. Such lava domes may experience partial collapse, however, which can produce small pyroclastic flows. If basaltic lavas, which are hotter and
less viscous, were to be erupted, however, they could flow several kilometers.1 Because basaltic lava flows are strongly controlled by the lowest paths across the topography, it is unlikely that one would reach Spirit Lake. Nevertheless, such a flow could disrupt drainages in the pumice plain that feed the Toutle River. Lava flows can also cause rapid snowmelt that in turn can trigger lahars.
- Volcanogenic lahars (volcanic mudflows) could result from emplacement of new tephra fallout, pyroclastic flow, lava flow, or debris avalanche deposits. Materials deposited by these processes can then be remobilized by heavy precipitation or can induce rapid melting of snow and ice, providing water for the flows. Lahars could introduce large volumes of sediment into the SRS. There may also be lahars that are not triggered by volcanic activity, but these are more appropriately thought of as flood or geotechnical hazards.
- Debris avalanches in the Toutle River valley are unlikely until the volcano rebuilds itself from the 1980 sector collapse. Their probability, then, depends upon the time frame of interest. Such flows could introduce large volumes of debris into the Toutle River system.
For any given eruption scenario, annual exceedance probabilities can be defined—and the uncertainty of those probabilities—for the aforementioned hazards and their impacts to the Spirit Lake and Toutle River system. The information can also be used as input for design criteria for any new mitigation structures and as input to a decision-making framework such as the one presented in Chapters 6-8 of this report.
The Probability of Eruptive Events
Table 4.3 summarizes the estimates by Grant et al. (2016a) of the annual probability of future eruptive events at Mount St. Helens. The probabilities
1 The lavas that formed the Ape Caves on the southern flanks of Mount St. Helens are basaltic.
based on the expert opinion of Grant et al. (2016a) used the geologic record of previous events over a defined timescale to estimate order-of-magnitude hazard probabilities. The values do not include analysis of uncertainties due to incompleteness of that record, to continually evolving knowledge of eruption mechanisms, and to potential future changes of the behavior of the volcano. Nor do the estimated probabilities account for the fact that the past events—even if well recorded in the geologic record—represent a subset of events that the volcano is capable of producing in terms of timing and volume. Other experts might derive different annual probabilities from the geologic record or from additional analysis using numerical modeling, for example. Ultimately, any annual frequency value should account for such uncertainties, which are not included in Table 4.3. Nevertheless, the Grant et al. (2016a) probability estimates can serve as a starting point for more detailed hazard assessments if such are needed, following the approach described below.
Adequacy of Existing Information
Disruptive eruption scenarios can be defined by the eruption processes accompanying any event that could disrupt the Spirit Lake and Toutle River system. For example, an eruption that produces enough tephra fallout could, as described above, block the Spirit Lake tunnel and ultimately cause breaching of the debris blockage if the tunnel could not be cleared before water levels rise to dangerous levels. It could also introduce enough new sediment into the watershed to impact the SRS. Even relatively minor pyroclastic flows could similarly affect the sediment budget enough to affect the SRS. Disruptive eruption scenarios are not limited to those involving major lateral blasts or debris avalanches. Existing volcanic hazards information and its strengths and weaknesses are summarized in Table 4.4.
The Spirit Lake and Toutle River system is located in a highly seismic region of the United States with the potential of strong ground shaking
TABLE 4.3 Annual Probability Estimates for Volcanic Hazards Affecting the Spirit Lake and Toutle River System
Eruptive process | Distance <3 miles. Impact within or near crater | Distance 3–5 miles. Impact capable of reaching Spirit Lake | Distance >5 miles. Impact capable of reaching Spirit Lake and beyond | |||
Geologic Record | P/yr | Geologic Record | P/yr | Geologic Record | P/yr | |
Airfall tephra/ash | Multiple explosive eruptions that deposited tephra fallout several inches to more than 3 feet thick | 0.01 | Multiple explosive eruptions that deposited tephra fallout several inches to more than 3 feet thick | 0.01 | Multiple explosive eruptions that deposited tephra fallout several inches to more than 3 feet thick | 0.01 |
Lava dome | Pre-1980, extensive dome building activity within past 4,500 years; 1980-2008 two dome complexes | 0.01 | A lava dome is unlikely to erupt near Spirit Lake, but dome collapses in the crater could generate pyroclastic flows that melt snow and ice and generate water floods or mudflows | <E-5 | A lava dome is unlikely to erupt near Spirit Lake, but dome collapses in the crater could generate pyroclastic-flows that melt snow and ice and generate water floods or mudflows | <E-5 |
Lava flow | Multiple | 0.01 | Multiple flows affected all flanks in past 2.5ka | 0.001 | Three groups of basalt lava flows from 1.8–2ka that traveled more than 8 miles from volcano | 0.001 |
Pyroclastic flow | Multiple; several during 1980 eruptions | 0.01 | Multiple; several during 1980 eruptions | 0.002 | Multiple flows, but few on north side that have traveled more than about 5 mi; associated ash clouds could travel >5 mi | 0.001 |
Laterally directed surge (type of highly energetic pyroclastic flow) | 3 known: (2) ~A.D. 900 (1) 1980 | 0.002 | 3 known: (2) ~A.D. 900 (1) 1980 | 0.002 | 3 known: (2) ~A.D. 900 (1) 1980 | 0.002 |
Debris avalanche | 4 known: (1) ~20ka (2) 2.5-3ka (1) 1980 |
0.001 | 4 known: (1) ~20ka (2) 2.5-3ka (1) 1980 |
0.001 | 4 known: (1) ~20ka (2) 2.5-3ka (1) 1980 |
0.001 |
Mudflow | ~40 in Toutle River valley in past 50ka | 0.1 | ~40 in Toutle River valley in past 50ka | 0.1 | ~40 in Toutle River valley in past 50ka | 0.01 |
aEstimates based on stratigraphic evidenced and post-1980 monitoring of Mount St. Helens. Uncertainties related to incompleteness in the stratigraphic record and potential eruption mechanisms were not incorporated in the analyses.
SOURCE: Grant et al., 2016a.
TABLE 4.4 Existing Volcanic Hazards Information and Its Strengths and Weaknesses
Existing information | Annual probabilities of volcanic hazards with sources at three different distance ranges from Mount St. Helens (see Table 4.3). |
Strengths | Addresses all applicable volcanic hazards and clearly states basis for annual probability estimates. |
Weaknesses | Annual probabilities are based on events recorded in the geologic record, and do not have quantified uncertainties. |
SOURCE: Grant et al., 2016a.
due to nearby and distant earthquakes. As with other hazards, consideration of seismicity in a decision framework has two principal components: (1) identifying seismic hazard and its potential consequences that could affect the Spirit Lake and Toutle River system and (2) assigning an annual exceedance probability to the seismic hazard and consequences. Individual seismic events produce multiple hazards processes such as strong ground shaking, which can result in earthquake-induced liquefaction and slope instability. These may or may not affect the Spirit Lake and Toutle River system in a way that causes problems downstream.
As described in Chapter 2, the Spirit Lake and Toutle River region is in a zone with multiple sources of seismicity. Earthquakes originating in the locked portion of the Cascadia Subduction Zone, shown in Figures 2.4 and 4.3, are capable of producing large magnitude (M ~9.0), long duration earthquakes (McCaffrey et al., 2007), with a recurrence interval on the order of 200-600 years. The last known occurrence of such an event occurred just over 300 years ago. The Cascadia Subduction Zone is relatively far from the Spirit Lake and Toutle River system and is not necessarily the largest potential contributor to strong amplitude shaking (Czajkowski and Bowman, 2014). But, the corresponding long duration and long period shaking on the order of several minutes exceeds the duration of shaking from other sources. The long duration shaking increases the demand on various systems as well as the potential for liquefaction and slope instability.
Deep and shallow crustal sources of earthquakes (see Figure 4.3) produce earthquakes of magnitudes in the range of M 5.0 to 7.5 and are of shorter duration compared to those generated by Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes. These can be closer to Spirit Lake and will likely produce stronger and more damaging shaking than do earthquakes originating from the locked portion of that subduction zone. Earthquakes generated in the north-south trending Mount St. Helens Seismic Zone shown in Figure 2.4 have produced numerous earthquakes of smaller magnitude than have the above two sources, and they can produce shaking very near to Spirit Lake and the SRS and hence potentially be quite damaging to elements such as the diversion tunnel and the debris blockage. The shaking amplitude can be stronger than that generated by the more distant seismic sources. Mount St. Helens is located on a Holocene active seismic zone, with numerous earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 2.0 (Czajkowski and Bowman, 2014). Volcanic earthquakes, discussed in Chapter 2, are localized earthquakes associated with magma movement. They are generally not important from a seismic hazard standpoint, but they are important as indicators of volcanic activity.
Impacts of Seismic Hazards
Seismic activity produces several hazards, each with unique physical impacts on the Spirit Lake and Toutle River system, including on engineered structures in the system. The most important of these impacts are related to ground shaking, fault displacements, landslides, and soil liquefaction, described below.
- Ground shaking—Ground motions and associated accelerations can damage features such as the tunnel and tunnel portals, the debris blockage, and the SRS. This is usually expressed as a horizontal spectral acceleration associated with a given seismic scenario.
- Fault displacements—If an earthquake is generated by rupture along a fault that crosses the Spirit Lake drainage tunnel, for example, displacement of tunnel segments could compromise its performance.
- Landslides—Ground motion during a strong earthquake can destabilize hillsides, causing mass movements that could introduce new sediment into the river system. Landslides can also block tunnel portals thus compromising its performance.
- Liquefaction—Saturated (wet), unconsolidated sediments are susceptible to a process wherein shear seismic waves cause a buildup in the pressure of pore fluids that reduces the strength of soil deposits, causing them to behave in a manner similar to a liquid. Sediment stored upstream of the SRS, for example, could liquefy during an earthquake, which could increase the horizontal load on the SRS or could lead to greater mobility of the sediments and overflow.
These impacts potentially affect all the management alternatives for drainage of Spirit Lake, including the surface channel, buried conduit, other tunnels, and the like (discussed in Chapter 5).
As with volcanic hazards, annual exceedance probabilities of anticipated ground shaking and related hazards can be developed. Analyses to date (Grant et al., 2016a) identify potential seismic hazards from the
Cascadia Subduction Zone, the Mount St. Helens Seismic Zone, and earthquakes (see Chapter 2). These analyses use U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) seismic hazards maps (Petersen et al., 2008) to obtain estimates of ground shaking based on regional geologic mapping.
Adequacy of Existing Information
Detailed probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and engineering analyses of fragility would be required to evaluate seismic hazards and the impacts of these hazards for the region. The level of detail in such studies should be tailored to the decisions being made and to the decision framework adopted (see Table 4.5). USGS hazard maps (Petersen et al., 2008) are useful as an initial screen tool to provide a first order estimate of the anticipated levels of shaking across the region. These maps, however, do not provide the level of resolution required for evaluating seismic hazard for critical infrastructure. Site-specific seismic hazard analysis would be required to provide estimates of anticipated levels of ground shaking at sites with features of interest and of potential fault rupture where fault zones exist.
PSHA studies are a standard part of the seismic evaluation of structures such as the Spirit Lake tunnel, the debris blockage, or the SRS. Many qualified organizations or consultants can conduct PSHAs These studies can then be used to address the behavior of a number of critical elements of the system, for example:
TABLE 4.5 Existing Seismic Hazards Information and Its Strengths and Weaknesses
Existing information | Regional information on contributing seismic sources and estimates of ground shaking. |
Strengths | Identifies some of the seismic hazards and their consequences. |
Weaknesses | Uncertainties about site-specific ground motions estimates and their probabilities and related hazard, including shaking, ground displacement, and liquefaction. Some analyses based only on qualitative assessments. |
- It is not known if the Spirit Lake tunnel is traversed by a fault that might displace during a seismic event. Even without a fault, ground deformations associated with a Mount St. Helens event might cause enough shaking to collapse the tunnel. A study designed to understand the vulnerability of the tunnel to seismic ground shaking and displacement would allow for seismic hazard to be part of the risk analysis of the tunnel drainage system. At present, tunnel failure modes considered include only qualitative probabilities in the risk analyses.
- The impact of seismic shaking on potential land sliding and related damage is not known. Slope instability can lead to a blockage of the tunnel inlet or the outlet. Additionally, slope instability of the blockage may weaken the integrity of the debris blockage.
- The impact of seismic shaking on potential settlement and movement of the debris blockage. Issues that might arise due to land sliding within the debris blockage mass or from nearby landslide debris and hillsides are also not known.
- The response of the SRS with its impounded highly liquefiable sediments under seismic events is not known (although, during the committee's open session meetings, liquefaction was said to have been observed as a result of the M 6.8 Nisqually Earthquake in February 20012). Analyses conducted thus far are based on outdated information and methodologies. Analyses are needed to evaluate the potential lateral spreading of the liquefied sediments, their impacts on the SRS, and their potential flow over the SRS.
It should be noted that much of the characterization of the region and the design and construction of infrastructure to manage the Spirit Lake and Toutle River region (e.g., the Spirit Lake tunnel and the SRS) was conducted prior to any knowledge of a potential M 9.0 Cascadia Seismic Zone event.
2 See https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/uw10530748#executive.
The Spirit Lake debris blockage, which can be thought of as a natural dam, is a unique feature representing an unusual management challenge. The debris blockage, being a natural element of the environment, illustrates that a natural hazard is affected by the meteorological, volcanic, and seismic events already described. The integrity of the debris blockage is vulnerable to rise in lake level, volcanic eruption, and seismic shaking. If the debris blockage were breached as a result of failure of the engineered lake-level control system; piping due to a critical hydraulic head gradient in the groundwater; or erosion working headward up the debris barrier from the remnant drainage channel system of the North Fork Toutle River valley north of the volcano, it would represent a primary source of potential catastrophic flooding downstream.
Potential Failure Modes
Shortly after the 1980 eruption, rising Spirit Lake levels impounded by the unconsolidated debris blockages there and at tributary junctions downstream at Coldwater and Castle Lakes led to concerns that overtopping or the partial settling or collapse of the blockage might lead to rapid erosion and widening of a breach. Such a sequence of potentially hazardous events would allow the lake to drain within hours and create damaging floods. Youd et al. (1981) performed an initial geotechnical stability analysis of the blockage. This study assumed that hydraulic overtopping was the principal mode of failure of the blockage. Based on the original study, pyroclastic deposits were concluded to be considerably more erodible than thought earlier. As a result, the bottom elevation of the pyroclastic materials was taken to be the critical lake elevation for breaching (see Chapter 5). The USGS and the USACE conducted drilling in the blockage to identify the elevation of the contact between the avalanche deposit and the pyroclastic materials.
Calculations of likely filling times and discharges of either mudflows or muddy floods at various locations along the Toutle River (Dunne and
Leopold, 1981; Swift and Kresch, 1983; Dunne and Fairchild, 1984; Kresch, 1992) were used to estimate the probability of some form of catastrophic failure and flooding in the cases of the rising lake levels in Coldwater Creek and later at Spirit Lake unless the lakes were stabilized. Reinforced outlet channels were constructed for the impoundments at Coldwater Creek and Castle Creek in the early 1980s.
Some detailed studies have since been made of mechanisms for the breaching of the Spirit Lake debris blockage (Swift and Kresch, 1983; Sager and Chambers, 1986) and stability analysis at Castle Lake (Roeloffs, 1994). The post-1980 water level was 3,406 feet (1,038 m), and geometric interpretations of ground conditions suggested that water levels higher than 3,475 feet (1,059 m) could result in erosion and potential breaching of the blockage. The techniques applied were simple. The development of piping in the debris blockage was the only failure mechanism considered. Blockage-scale analyses for seepage force and effective stress failures were not conducted. These would have required more detailed data on geologic, hydrologic, and morphologic conditions than were available at the time or are available now.
Studies on the stability of the Castle Lake blockage (Roeloffs, 1994) indicate that if the groundwater level were to increase by approximately 50 feet (15 m), that blockage would become saturated. In that case, an earthquake of M 6.0 would likely cause failure of the blockage. The updated numerical simulation Roeloffs employed was a steady-state two-dimensional saturated groundwater flow model to assess the stability or factor of safety of the debris dam. No stress field computation was made. The factor of safety was defined by the upward critical gradient to the computed gradient. In such analysis, the actual shear strength of the debris materials was not considered. Measured water table fluctuations for the years 1991 and 1992 were used to constrain the model. Upward seepage caused a low factor of safety for the debris blockage. Geologic, geotechnical, and geophysical surveying of the blockage may be needed to determine the potential piping development over the past 36 years as well as the stress field-based factor of safety analysis.
A potential failure modes analysis (PFMA) was conducted in 2016
principally by a team from the USACE but also comprising personnel from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), and the USGS. The present study committee did not have direct access to the results of the PFMA; it relied on a summary of those results by Grant et al. (2016a). Eleven potential failure modes were reported to have been identified by which drainage of Spirit Lake could be interrupted, with the consequence of a rising lake level eventually reaching a critical elevation against the blockage. More information about the PFMA is provided in Chapter 5.
Catastrophic Flood Magnitudes
The hydraulic analysis of a plausible Spirit Lake catastrophic breakout by Swift and Kresch (1983) indicated peak mudflow discharges of approximately 2.65 million cubic feet per second (cfs) (7.5×104 m3/sec) 18 miles (29 km) downstream from the lake near the terminus of the debris avalanche deposit, decreasing to approximately 1.14 million cfs (32,000 m3/sec) at the Cowlitz River confluence and 1 million cfs (283,000 m3/sec) at the confluence with the Columbia River. The calculations also predicted depths of inundation of 60 feet (18 m) in Castle Rock and Lexington, and 30-40 feet (9-12 m) in Toutle, Kelso, and Longview. Swift and Kresch (1983) calculated that warning times for the first arrival of the lake-breakout flood were about 4 hours at Toutle village, 10 hours at Castle Rock, and 16 hours at Kelso-Longview.
The calculated boundaries of the mudflow throughout the Toutle River and Cowlitz River valleys as far as Castle Rock are consistent with those mapped by Scott and Janda (1982), although the peak discharge of the calculated flood in the middle Toutle River valley (2.55 million cfs) was significantly below the 7-10 million cfs (200,000 to 285,000 m3/s) of the lake breakout that occurred 2,500-3,200 years ago as estimated by Scott (1988a,b). Consequently, the flow magnitudes, inundation depths, and geographical extent of the estimated lake-breakout flood suggested the need for stabilizing the level of Spirit Lake considerably below an elevation that might trigger a breach of the impoundment.
Groundwater Regime of the Debris Blockage
Chapter 2 summarizes the groundwater regime within the debris blockage. The stability of debris blockage was not considered in the original Spirit Lake drainage options of buried conduit, tunnel, open channel, and permanent pumping in the comprehensive plan to manage sediment (USACE, 1983), thus leading to the decision to use the tunnel for routing the water from Spirit Lake. The comprehensive plan did not extensively consider geologic and hydrologic information, including the impact of lake level on groundwater and stability and lake sediment thicknesses. The existing groundwater regime in the blockage and in the North Fork Toutle River valley was characterized by a series of borings in the aftermath of the eruption and, more recently, by geophysical studies taken from the surface. There have been few, if any, downhole data collected since the 1980s. The result is that changes in the groundwater regime since the 1980s are poorly characterized, as is the current state of the groundwater. The recent geophysical surveys suggest that the changes since the 1980s may be modest, but the groundwater regime is of such importance to the geotechnical performance of the blockage that it would be prudent to have more up-to-date information. Such up-to-date information might shed light on whether internal erosion was taking place within the blockage and whether groundwater seepage continues to move toward Spirit Lake rather than draining away from it. There seems no reason for immediate concern other than that few recent groundwater data have been collected.
Understanding the North Fork Toutle River valley groundwater flow regime since the eruption would provide the needed scientific basis for assessing potential failure mechanisms for debris dam, surficial erosion processes, and water balance in Spirit Lake. It would also provide hydro-geologic information necessary to consider alternatives, for example, related to the control of Spirit Lake water levels.
Catastrophic Floods and the SRS
Denlinger (2011) evaluated the impact on the SRS of catastrophic floods and debris flows originating from Castle Lake and from the crater of Mount St. Helens. In each case, numerical modeling suggests that a structurally sound spillway at the SRS is capable of passing large floods without the risk of overtopping the dam itself. Large debris flows originating from these two sources never reached the SRS, instead filling graded channels upstream. While an important finding, catastrophic floods from these two sources would be small (but not negligible) in comparison to that originating from a catastrophic breakout of Spirit Lake itself. The study concludes that the valley leading to the SRS is large enough to absorb a transient peak discharge of 40,000 cubic meters per second without overtopping the SRS—about half the discharge predicted for a breakout of Spirit Lake.
Grant et al. (2016a) note that the principal current basis for predicting catastrophic flood discharges and inundation areas is the modeling work done shortly after the eruption and as compared with Holocene lahars:
But some things have changed since the 1980s which justify another look at the downstream effects of a breakout flood. The topography of the North Fork Toutle River valley has evolved considerably since the eruption and subsequent downstream delivery of sediment. Construction of the Sediment Retention Structure and its operation and filling over the past few decades has potentially changed the way lahars might behave. (Grant et al., 2016a: 110-111)
Further downstream, flood levees have been built and later raised, which may affect the extent and level of inundation. Three decades have passed and there are now better flood routing models and better understanding of floods and sediment. As Grant and others (2016a: 111) concluded, "a more informed reanalysis seems warranted."
The early model-based estimates of potential peak flows were not based on detailed characterizations of valley topography, and though their magnitude was roughly confirmed with field evidence, there is room for
refinement of the estimates if such refinement ever becomes necessary for public policy decision making. Topographic changes that have occurred in the North Fork Toutle valley since 1980, however, are unlikely to have diminished the estimation of a debris flow, with the peak flow rate and especially of the volume and duration of a flow likely to result from drainage of Spirit Lake. The geologic evidence of prehistoric lahars in the vicinity of the SRS is that debris flows that required the release of volumes of water commensurate with a lake breakout recurred several times in multiple eruptive periods of the volcano and left evidence of reaching catastrophically high levels where the SRS stands. The peak rate, density, viscosity, and abrasive potential of these flows are many times higher than for which the SRS and its spillway were designed.
Adequacy of Existing Information
Existing information on catastrophic flooding is summarized in Table 4.6. The potential for such flooding and its corresponding consequences are reasonably well known. Geologic evidence from the early lahars off Mount St. Helens supports the modern analyses. The weaknesses in current information have to do with the fragility of the debris blockage and its corresponding vulnerability to seismic hazards, the current state of groundwater conditions, and details of current geotechnical conditions.
Since the 1980 eruption much has been learned about the character of the natural hazards existing in the Spirit Lake and Toutle River system. Some informational needs remain, particularly about the engineering performance and fragility of the system when exposed to hazard events. Immediately following the eruption, there was a great expenditure of effort and resources in the 1980s to better understand the physical features of the system, but monitoring has been far less intense in recent years even given the complex and dynamic nature of the system, scientific insights, the changing priorities of interested and affected parties in the region, and
TABLE 4.6 Existing Catastrophic Flooding Information and Its Strengths and Weaknesses
Existing information |
Potential failure modes analysis of failures of the lake drainage system Extensive 1980s data on geology of debris blockage Extensive hydrological data and analysis of runoff into Spirit Lake |
Strengths |
Extensive analysis of what can go wrong with drainage schemes Relative certainty about the critical level of Spirit Lake |
Weaknesses |
Seismic loading on the blockage during a Cascadian earthquake No recent geotechnical studies or analyses of blockage stability No recent geotechnical studies or analyses of possible piping No regular monitoring of present conditions and changes in ground water within the blockage Design quality understanding of the geotechnical properties Understanding the effect of a breakout flood from Spirit Lake on the SRS and the possible mobilization of sediments in the sediment plain behind the SRS |
changes in engineering practice that have taken place. The adequacy of information available to quantitatively inform any decision making is questionable. Monitoring capabilities and data collection programs need to be reexamined and updated and analytic capabilities need to be reevaluated in light of the information needs of all interested and affected parties. Those key physical variables that impact decision making need to be identified through a process in which those with management authority engage each other and other interested and affected parties in the region (as will be discussed in greater detail in Chapters 6-8). New scientific insights—for
example, that related to the probability of a Cascadia Seismic Zone event affecting the region—warrant greater examination on how such an event might affect the region and therefore management decisions for the region.
Recommendation: Agencies engaged in risk management in the Spirit Lake and Toutle River region should develop a coordinated and targeted monitoring system to track changes in factors that affect risk. Data and analyses should be shared and made available to all.
Because the Spirit Lake and Toutle River system is continually changing in response both to the forces of nature and to human intervention, information about the system needs to be regularly updated. Current characterization of the Spirit Lake debris blockage; the behavior and location of groundwater in the blockage; current and future meteorological trends; a quantified characterization of the types of risks posed by volcanic activities on Spirit Lake levels and elsewhere in the region; and the seismic response to local and regional seismic activity of the debris blockage and other parts of the system are all examples of factors that may affect the understanding of risk associated with management alternatives that might be considered. For the purposes of planning and decision making, the large body of knowledge on natural hazards needs to be integrated in a consistent way. Given modern trends in policy analysis and hazard management, that integration needs to occur through a process of systematic risk analysis.


text: What are the advantages of the Hybrid Learning Program? Through this program, CQQ aims to reach larger segments of Qatari society by tackling the challenges that come with their personal and professional duties, as well as provide them with the much-needed flexibility to pursue their academic aspirations. At the same time, CCQ will maintain its long-standing record of providing stellar quality education and academic results. This flexibility will be seen in offering some courses over the weekends, while conducting the rest of the courses online throughout the week.What are the criteria for the hybrid learning courses?CCQ's hybrid learning courses were developed based on internationally-recognized standards and the previous experiences of international institutions. CCQ has also assigned a specialized committee to follow up on the development of necessary courses, and define technical, academic and advising needs to provide maximum support to both students and faculty members to ensure the smoothness and effectiveness of this program, with all offered hybrid learning courses being subject to continuous supervision, review and development.How will CCQ support students who have not previously enrolled in a hybrid learning course?The College will provide the necessary support to all students who wish to enroll in the hybrid learning courses, by:- Providing guidance and advising on the nature and requirements of the hybrid courses and programs, and- Enhancing their technical skills to maximize the benefits from this program.What programs are currently being offered through hybrid learning? Starting from fall 2020, the Associate of Business Administration will be presented in a hybrid format, with plans to offer a bachelor's degree for the same major in the future. The College will also work on expanding the hybrid learning program to cover other academic programs and courses in accordance with the students' needs and the effectiveness of the program.What are the admission requirements for the program? To be admitted into a hybrid learning academic program, a student must:- Fulfill the admission requirements set in accordance with CCQ policies- Successfully pass a technical skills testApplications are open only for new students and students who are currently enrolled in level 2of the English Foundation Program.


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07-09-2023 11:57 AM in
Bring back the blue earth smart phone, the idea was so good, you don't even need a case for the solar power feature meaning it won't be chunky and you can put a case on, tell me, how many of you want the inconvenience of purchasing an extension for your phone when the features can just be integrated, it's annoying, and what happens to us in public? We run out of battery, or might get stranded, what do we get alot of? The sun, it needs to come back, just make it completely metallic blue this time.
07-09-2023 02:46 PM in
07-09-2023 05:30 PM in
07-09-2023 05:54 PM in


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Areas We Serve: Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Union
ELEON HEALTHCARE INC. provides non-medical, in-home care to individuals who wish to remain independent in their own homes but require assistance to do so. Our caring staff provides assistance with errands, medication monitoring, light housekeeping and laundry, monitoring for bath safety. Our care providers are employees of ELEON HEALTHCARE INC.. They are thoroughly screened, bonded and insured. We perform extensive reference, criminal, and DMV checks. All services and schedules are tailored to the needs of the individual client and caregivers are available for daily, weekly, overnight, 24-hour or live-in assignments. Our case managers meet and assess each client personally and remain available to all family members. Services are available 24 hours a day, seven days a week using an answering service and on-call procedures after normal working hours, weekends, and holidays.
We strive to be one of the leading providers of a wide range of quality home health care services, recognized for enduring dedication to provide innovative, professional, and compassionate care to the communities we serve. Our goals and services are based on two fundamental philosophical principles: the belief in the innate worth of the aged and disabled individual; and the belief that each individual, regardless of age, race, color, creed, sex, national origin or handicap(s) is entitled to maximize his potential as a human being and as a member of society
Please mention CarePathways when you call us :)


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Code: 12287
Antique Palais Royal Ruby Red Glass Scent Bottle with Gilded Bronze Chatelaine.
The Perfume Bottle is Excellent Quality with Beautiful Ornate Gilded Bronze Mounts Depicting a Boy and his Dog.
The Reverse Depicts a Collection of Musical Instruments.
The Top is Hinged and has a Delicately Engraved Design.
Height Including Chatelaine 9cms (3.5")


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President of the Institute of Security, Disaster and Emergency Studies, Dr Ishmael Norman says the country's much preparedness for the fight of Covid-19 is a hoax.
Dr Norman's comments follow the revelation by the Finance Minister, Mr Ofori Atta that the $100m announced by President Akufo-Addo to help the country deal with the pandemic is not ready.
The Minister also indicated that processes have been initiated to seek assistance from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund to address issues of the deadly virus.
Reacting to the latest development in a radio interview monitored by primenewsghana.com today March 18, 2020, Dr Norman said the President's comment on the amount announced in his address on Covid-19 last Sunday was to deceive Ghanaians on the country's preparedness
 'I think where we are going, if we don't have money, it means we don't have money to train people that are going to be on the frontline, buy testing kits, to make sure the cases we are identifying can be confirmed clinically speaking. So I think that the whole preparedness that they have been telling us that they are ready was a real hoax that they played on this country. Many of these people should lose their jobs because it is totally unacceptable for someone to tell us we don't have enough money to buy testing kits''.
READ ALSO:More foreigners denied entry into Ghana over Covid-19
The President in his address last Sunday made it known that the Finance Minister has been directed to make funds readily available to respond to the outbreak of Covid-19 in the country.
According to President Akufo-Addo, the amount is to fund the expansion of infrastructure, purchase materials and public education.
But briefing Parliament about the fiscal impact of Covid-19, Mr Ofori-Atta disclosed Ghana has applied to the World Bank to tap into a $12 billion fast track Covid-19 facility and the IMF $10 billion facility to address the deadly virus.
Meanwhile, the Information Minister, Kojo Oppong Nkrumah disclosed that two Italians who were set to enter Ghana Monday night were stopped from entering the country.


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I did a windows update today, after the restart AMD was not found on my PC, looked up on the website noticing that my Radeon 480Rx needed an update from 9/29. After the update. it required a restart during the initial boot up it was just a black screen. after 5 hours of diagnosing the issue. My GPU was the issue. my PC only works when the GPU is out of the PC where I have to be plugged directly into the motherboard to type this. SO as a loyal AMD user who has sent countless of information through your own product id like a new Radeon 480 RX simply for me trying to do the right thing and getting burned for it... IF I do not receive the product I will take my business else where probably to your competition Nividia.
if using a HDMI try using a DVI, i myself get stuck in a boot loop with my MSI R7 370 after trying to use the adrenaline software they provide. i'm hoping that finding my original disc can resolve this but i don't think that would fully update my drivers since my upgrading from that started this mess to begin with.
SO,You did an update and it's AMD's fault? Sounds legit
official manufacturer update on their own hardware isn't the consumers fault. surely you jest
ill try the DVI thanks stoan,
YEAH earnhardt, i did an UPDATE FROM AMD, FOR THEIR HARDWARE for OPTIMAL performance, ONLY to be workign with a handicapped computer now, MY GPU is now unplugged to make it work and im stuck using integrated graphics now simply because of this update... AND EARNHARDT theyve had issues with windows for years, and obviously arent doiing anything about this.
I believe it and I can't explain it but I had a similar thing happen with my R9 380x. Fresh install of Windows 10 2004. Everything was running fine. First installed a 2019 driver as I had already had issues with older GCN cards on the 2020 driver on some other machines. I wanted to test the 2020 driver so installed the driver. The screen went black hung, I restarted and the card never worked again. I can't prove one way or the other what happened but it is odd. I have also seen quite a few other complaints of the same thing. This was just 5 weeks ago and one driver ago.
I advise anyone on Polaris or earlier to stay clear of the 2020 drivers if you can.
You can certainly talk to AMD support about the issue here: https://www.amd.com/en/support/contact-email-form
Good Luck!
Long time ago AMD did a bad update for the 4870 that burned it out by running full tilt 24/7 with no fan speed. I luckily got a RMA, and AMD took down the driver, but AMD has a history of doing bad things to older hardware with updates. Anyone with a 290/390 and dual monitors will notice their RAM runs 100%, and this didn't happen on the CCC drivers.
Polaris was well built, but it's power delivery system has a HISTORY, where release hardware of 480's were pulling too much power out of the PCI-E slot. AMD literally fixed this with a driver update, because apparently it can be controlled via drivers on Polaris. While a cool "feature", this also means Polaris could be a ticking time bomb for any random driver to decide to do something weird with power delivery, and you have to trust AMD to not brick your system.
Speaking of that, I am running a Vega 56, and early drivers had massive power spikes that literally killed my previous PSU. I've since bought a Corsair PSU that can and HAS survived these power spikes until AMD fixed the problem.
That said, driver stability of late 2019/2020 has been absolutely terrible with barely anything working. The black screens have gone away, but none of the advanced driver features work right, and neither does ReLive + Instant Replay. Each update is a complete dice roll for stability. I've only had luck with 20.4.2 WHQL, and 20.8.2. RDNA seems to like 20.5.1 HWS. We might get one or two "stable" driver updates a year, so you pretty much have to keep an eye out for them.
Meanwhile, the only time AMD acknowledges and attempts to fix serious problems is when tech press spotlights an issue. The website Tech Report (which was heavily biased and now defunct) has forced AMD to re-write GCN 1.0's memory controller code to reduce stuttering, and fix water pump noises on FuryX. Recently, youtubers have forced AMD to work on fixing black screens, but they were not going to address it otherwise, much like all the other bugs we're having that are going unfixed. AMD apparently is using the public as beta testers, and to make it worse, not acknowledging bug reports.


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A new organization has emerged in Indianapolis to facilitate and coordinate community efforts to provide legal, psychological and other services for immigrants in Central Indiana.
We are COIN, Coalition for Our Immigrant Neighbors
COIN is a resource for our immigrant neighbors and for the entire Indianapolis community. To that end, COIN is hosting its first free, major simulation event – Walk in a Refugee's Shoes – on July 23. This is an hour-long simulation that allows participants to assume the identity and role of a refugee and experience some typical activities on their journey. This event is ideal for families, friends, classmates, employees or congregants.
We are asking your organization to help us by joining us as a sponsor. Per the Sponsorship form, we have levels from $250 to $2,500 (and higher) – aptly named to honor refugees – Courage, Bravery, Valor and Spirit.
If you have any questions, please contact Karen Friss If you will support us please provide payment per instructions and inform us by email of:
Thank you in advance for your support.
Karen Friss
Retiree, Volunteer
President of the Board, Immigrant Welcome Center


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West Sussex County Council (WSCC) has launched an investigation after mistakenly publishing the details of 1,400 vulnerable people online.
The data was published as part of the council's practice of disclosing all spending above £100. However, the identities of carers, foster carers and disabled people under the authority's remit should have been protected.
Initially, WSCC reassured the public that only names had been released online, but now it has confessed that other details could have been found by cross-referencing the information available.
It took the council 29 hours to remove the information, after being notified of the problem in late September, but the details have been available online for seven years.
"Although the spreadsheet contained transaction numbers and payment amounts, the only personal details recorded were names," the council stated. "We would like to reassure residents that the spreadsheet did not contain any sensitive personal data which would put individuals at risk, in the event that identification through data matching with alternative sources was carried out.
"We accept that persons seeking to identify individuals could do so in some cases by making additional checks through other data sources. It is for that reason we removed the data."
The problem has been reported to the Information Commissioner's Office (ICO), which has launched an investigation.
The council announced it would conduct its own investigation into the issue, saying: "As a local authority, we are required to publish all expenditure data.
"Our investigation is continuing and we will be carrying out further analysis of the data during this time closely following the guidance issued by the ICO."
An ICO spokesperson told PSE: "We're aware of an incident involving West Sussex County Council and are making enquiries."
There are no comments. Why not be the first?
Councillors should ignore 'Stalinist' ban on media contact – Pickles
Long-term unemployed to work six months for free
HIV treatment decision will 'heap more pressure' on public health – LGA


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Chapter 22 – I Fought A Boulder At The Crags!
Once I was finished building the bridge, I gathered the monsters that Iria had killed.
There was one Armor Boar and five Hell Alligators.
So we would be dining on meat tonight as well.
After that, Iria got on the horse and we crossed the bridge.
I was worried that it might shake, but it didn't shake at all.
It seemed like there would be no problems with it.
"There really is a road over the river… You really can make anything, Sir Joshua."
"No, I think there are more things that I can't craft."
That being said, it did feel like I was able to make any weapon or tool that I could think of.
"There are things that can't be made with crafting magic.
Like plants and animals, obviously."
"I see.
That does sound impossible… Ah, it's to the southeast from here."
And so I steered the horse towards the southeast direction that Iria pointed in.
And shortly after, we came to a place where rocks were stacked like pillars.
Iria pointed at the cluster of pillars.
"There it is!"
At glance, it looked less like a stone pit and more like some kind of ancient shrine.
However, once we arrived, there was a craggy place made of hard stone.
And I could see several square pits.
I dismounted from the horse and stopped at one of the stone pillars.
Yes, I could see traces where rock had been cut out.
The rocky floor was flat, so it was clear that this site had been prepared by someone.
You've been here before"
"A few times.
There used to be a lot of deers here.
But these days, there are so many Armor Boars, and the deers have disappeared."
"I see…"
As far as I could see now, there were no animals here.
But due to having a good view of the area, I could also tell that there were no Armor Boars nearby.
"Well, I suppose I'll try digging some of this rock then…"
And then I directed my hand towards the rock.
Excavation Magic… It was a combination of wind and fire magic, which was perfect for cutting out rock.
While I would eventually teach the Kijins the art of stone cutting, I had come here today to find out how strong the stone was.
And so I would just cut out a small amount.
It was just as I thought this and was about to cut the rock.
Suddenly, the ground began to shake.
"An e-earthquake!"
Iria looked around.
But it wasn't.
The rocks around us had suddenly started to move to the center of the crags.
And in the center, I could faintly see a boulder that was glowing with a red light.
"That thing…"
And when all the rocks had gathered together, they took on a giant, humanoid form.
Its legs were the size of an adult human…but its overall height was four times taller than that.
"A Golem…"
The thing that had appeared was a rock giant monster known as a Golem.
They had a core that was called a doll stone, and they gathered the rocks around them in order to take on a humanoid shape.
She must have sensed the danger immediately.
Iria unsheathed her sword and ran towards the Golem.
"Iria, wait! This one can't be defeated so easily!"
Just as I finished shouting, Iria's blade went through the Golem's leg.
However, the Golem seemed like it didn't notice, and it tried to crush Iria with its arms.
Iria jumped back and dodged the attack.
When I looked, the severed Golem's leg had returned to normal, as rocks gathered back to it.
Iria pointed her sword at it and muttered.
"Slash attacks aren't effective…"
Can you see the dark red stone that shines in the center You must destroy it, or it will continue to heal itself forever… Woah."
I dodged a boulder that the Golem threw at me.
The boulder then rolled away without breaking.
"I see.
They really are strong then… Iria.
I'll expose the dark red stone.
And then, will you be able to cut it"
"Of course!"
And then I turned towards the Golem and started to run.
"Si-Sir Joshua! That's too reckless!"
"I'm fine! If anything, I'm good at fighting this kind of enemy!"
Even as we spoke, the Golem rapidly threw boulders at me.
I didn't even dodge them, and continued to run towards the Golem.
One after another, I absorbed the thrown boulders head on.
Of course, I had no idea when the capacity of my magic workshop would reach its limit.
And so I dropped them outside right after I absorbed them.
And once I was right in front of the Golem, I raised my hand.
The Golem began to swing down at me with its giant stone hand.
I absorbed the Golem's arm.
Obviously, I continued to throw out the rocks that I absorbed.
As expected, the Golem began to gather more rocks in order to reconstruct what it lost.
However, the speed of my absorption was faster.
Arm, shoulder, chest… Once I had absorbed that much, the dark red stone became visible.
It was just for a second.
But as soon as Iria saw it, she immediately cut it out.
And then Iria landed on her feet.
At the same time, the rocks that made up the Golem's body crumbled to the ground with a loud crash.


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Sbo or Sabo is currently known as sbobet,the official name of sbobet mobile game is an online sports bookie. Currently, sbobet has expanded to wide regions and covers vast areas of Asia (Sbobet Asia) and Europe as well. The Sbobet has been allowed to run a gambling business online by the Israeli government of England, resort corporation of the Philippines and they are the most complete gambling site.
How to play the game on mobile?
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Registration and Login Process for Sbobet Mobile Users:-
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For the account in sbobet mobile, some data are required such as bank account number, account's name, bank type, telephone number, and email address, and then the player has to choose the sports game from the list of games that he/she wants to play and that is it. Now the player/user can play the game without any interruption,
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Sbobet not only offers great services and a variety of games but also provides referrals and bonuses to their loyal players/users. Each member can easily avail of the offer without the need of following any complicated terms and conditions. Either the users are new members or the existing members, everyone can avail the benefits of bonuses and promos which the players can use as initial capital to place bets on the gambling games online.


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International Association of Art Critics, Japan
Michio Hayashi, President
On September 29, 2019, the International Association of Art Critics, Japan published a protest against the decision made by the Agency of Cultural Affairs not to deliver the once-officially promised governmental subsidy to the Aichi Triennale 2019 (this unreasonable decision was made in response to the incident about the "After 'Freedom of Expression?'" section in the Triennale and announced on September 26).
In regard to this matter, the Agency publicly announced on March 23, 2020 to deliver the 85% of the promised subsidy to the Triennale (as a result of the negotiation between the Agency and the Aichi prefectural government). We regard this as an encouraging development but at the same time would like to express our concerns about the reduction of original subsidy by 15% and its potential impact on "freedom of expression" in the future. Moreover, since the process that led to the original cancellation of the subsidy still remains in the dark and thus the possibility of the recurrence of a similar incident lingers on, we are determined to continue to demand the Agency of Cultural Affairs and other organizers of cultural events to protect the principle of "freedom of expression."