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Publishing for early career researchers – 6 June 2019
Publishing tips for early career researchers – 6 June 2019
Though publishing your work is very appealing, it can seem a daunting process. Where to start? How to approach this? Do I publish part of my work now or all of it later? And what are the implications for me of open access publications instead of traditional publishing?
This workshop on publishing and publication strategies is aimed at PhD students and RMA students and attempts to address some of these issues. The morning session will consist of several presentations on the processes of publishing and issues such open access. In the afternoon there will be a workshop by De Focus and a panel discussion to address some final issues.
Preliminary Program:
Location: Room 11A-24 (Main building VU)
10.00-10.45 – Session 1: Academic publishing guidelines
10.45-11.00 – Coffee/tea break
11.00-11.45 – Session 2: Mini-workshop: Finishing & Publishing your PhD by Dr. Sasja van der Vaart Verschoof
11.45-12.30 – Session 3: Graduate publishing (KLEOS and Intersection), View from the Editorial Board
Afternoon session – Room 9a-32.
13.30-15.45 – Workshop 'Outreach' by Thom Hamer and Sonja Pleumeekers from the board of De Focus. Here you can find the full program and preparatory assignment.
15.45-16.00 – Cofee/tea break
16.00-17.15ish – Final panel discussion
Preparatory assignment for the workshop 'Outreach'.
In preparation of the workshop, you are asked to write an introduction to a journalistic article based on the content of your bachelor thesis, advanced research proposal or already existing article concept, to be submitted by Wednesday 5 June, 23:00 hrs., through mail to email@example.com.
This introduction lacks the strong demands associated with an academic article; rather, it is a concise, easy and appealing read that emphasizes the relevance for readers that may not be so familiar with the discipline in question. Still, the scientific dimension remains evident; indeed, the introduction takes the first steps toward tackling a problem of scientific interest and arguing in a scientifically sound manner for a solution.
During the workshop, editorial teams (consisting of approximately five members, a mixture of PhD and master students) evaluate each of their concept introductions by discerning its strengths and weaknesses, in order to suggest improvements for further versions of the article. Assessment will be guided by specific criteria. In this way, you really get to know the practice of editorial boards and gain a basic understanding of what makes an excellent piece of science journalism.
The introduction has a maximum length of 200 words and can consist of multiple paragraphs. Among the substantive criteria are clarity, accessibility for the layperson, target audience, suitability of the scope, stylistic appeal, and the title's strength. Further guidelines can be found in the LibGuide on 'Outreach' (particularly, under "How do I write an article?") Finally, please take a look at the website of De Focus and get inspired by the style and form applied in the published articles.
Please send an email to IJk van Hattum, stating your name, whether you are a PhD or (R)MA student and if you have any dietary requirements/preferences.
Note, since only 20-30 people can attend, PhD and RMA students have priority. Recently graduated archaeology students and MA students (non-member) can be put on the waiting list.
Credits: 1 EC, more information on assignments will follow.
Participation fee: The attendance is free of charge and includes coffee, tea, and lunch.
Location: Main building, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (De Boelelaan 1105). Morning sessions: Room 11A-24. Afternoon sessions: room 9a-32.
Language: English


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Atlanta Journal Constitution |
Tired of being nickle & dimed? | Where to get truly free checking
Atlanta Journal Constitution When is free checking not really free? These days, many banking institutions offer checking accounts that they claim are free, but come with pesky fees and minimum balances. A true free checking account is just that: free. There is no cost to open it … |

subset: commoncrawl


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This blue liquid is basically a gel called the polymer. It can easily be bought from a garden store and is often showed being poured onto a diaper for fun. It is super absorbent. It is a gel used during the time of gardening. You can sprinkle it onto the flowers. It is convenient and can be perfectly used in the dry climate where the plants require watering atleast twice a day.
This liquid can easily be absorbed by the diaper as shown in the pictures and forms crystals inside the diaper. The reason why this is shown so often is that the babies often make the cloth wet but in diapers they will not be able to wet it so easily because of their super absorbent quality. The liquid turns into gel and is absorbed by the diaper as soon as the baby wets the diaper. Turning this liquid into gel. This is the meaning of pouring blue liquid in the diaper. They also start looking like ice cubes once poured in the diapers. This is also acrylic polymer which is not very safe in the soil.


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Have you met Rod "free and easy" Rickard yet? Get to know him in our latest "Inside Platypus Tours" video posted on our YouTube Channel, and then take one of his tours!
You can check it out here "Top Wine Tour Guides – Rod from Platypus Tours" and learn about what makes him such a great wine tour guide. Yes, you have indeed found the anti-wine snob wine tour!


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Welcome to the DFiant hardware description language (HDL) source code repository!
DFiant is a dataflow HDL and is embedded as a library in the Scala programming language. DFiant enables timing-agnostic and device-agnostic hardware description by using dataflow firing rules as logical constructs, coupled with modern software language features (e.g., inheritance, polymorphism) and classic HDL features (e.g., bit-accuracy, input/output ports).
Visit our webpage: https://dfianthdl.github.io/LEGaTO/
This work has been supported by EU H2020 ICT project LEGaTO, contract #780681.


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Good thing moderator Brian Williams announced at the beginning of tonight's Democratic debate that, "there really aren't any" rules. The final scheduled debate kicked off to a health care battle on MSNBC, in response to Williams' first question. The back-and-forth lasted more than 15 minutes, and several attempts to change the subject were unsuccessful. Upon finally closing the table to response, Williams said, "Well, a 16-minute discussion on health care is certainly a start."
> Update: Sen. Hillary Clinton references the SNL sketch from last weekend while asking why she always seems to be asked to answer the question first. "If anybody saw Saturday Night Live, maybe we should ask Barack if he's comfortable and needs another pillow," she said.


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NYC Council to hold Rikers hearing, Gov. Hochul looks at how the state can help improve conditions – CBS New York
According to CBS New York, since December, ten individuals have died in jail, and several legislators have detailed filthy and cruel circumstances there. The New York City Council on criminal justice will convene on Wednesday.
De Blasio outlines a safety policy for Rikers Island after a wave of violence. At the gathering, lawyer Jumaane Williams was scheduled to speak. When it comes to circumstances, he is one of those that raises the alarm. Many individuals informed us that they were contemplating suicide due to the stress.
His style of thinking isn't the only way to look at things. Kathy Hochul, the governor of New York, was added to the list last night. I have already given my employees instructions on how we can play a part in eliminating the issue," she added.
According to the "Less is More Act" enacted by the state legislature, probationers should not be incarcerated for long periods. There are more probation breaches in New York than anyplace else in the United States.


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Fancy is a black standard poodle with light phantom markings, about 55 pounds. She is very sweet and has the softest coat. She has very calm and trainable litters. Her puppies stay mostly black with white abstract markings (white bellies, some white on chest, some on paws, some on face) which is what I will expect out of all of her litters. Her puppies are 55-70 pounds
Ginger is an apricot/white standard poodle about 55 pounds. She is very sweet, super smart and easy to train. When I took her to obedience school the instructor thought I should continue on and do rally trials with her (obedience trials)…time did not permit. She is a very nice girl, a bigger boned poodle. Her first litter is coming February 2019…she could have some really fun coloring as she color tested as having has sable, tri, brown, and red in her.
Cleo is a black/white standard poodle, 40 pounds. Cleo is Charlie's (my now retired standard poodle) half sister. Charlie is the best dog, so I when I had the opportunity to get his half sister, I did it. She doesn't disappoint, she is calm, super smart (passed puppy obedience so easily and was the calmest girl in the room. I then took her to a Canine Good Citizenship Class and she passed that test easily. Her puppies should be 45-60 pounds…waiting to see on the first litter.
Ben, my tri-colored standard poodle, about 55 pounds. He has great coloring and personality He produces beautiful puppies, with great boxy bodies and gorgeous markings. With Ben's coloring I can use him for sheepadoodles or bernedoodles (which I hope to start having fall/winter 2019


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JiaYu don't seem to be any nearer launching the Jaiyu G3 quad-core Android phone, as the Chinese phone maker seems undecided over the exterior design and are asking fans to vote for which they prefer!
While earlier this morning I believed the quad-core dual-core JiaYu G3 could launch within the next month or so, the Chinese brand just managed to prove me wrong by seeming to be still undecided over the external appearance of the new phone.
Up until now most of the spy photos and leaked images of the Jiayu G3 have shown an alloy bodied phone with flat back and large 4.5 inch IPS Gorilla Glass display, however just this morning JiaYu have posted photos of an all black model with a curved back.
Gizchina News of the week
It also seems that this black model is made of a black plastic material rather than the stylish brushed alloy which might be an attempt to drop the retail price of the G3 to below the expected $250 mark.
According to this report the colour of the next generation JiaYu is 'in your hands' and fans of the phone have been asked to vote on which colour and design they prefer. This is the second time that JiaYu have proven they really want to make a phone their customers want as they have also asked fans to design and suggest features for the G3's replacement the Jiayu G4!
Which do you guys prefer? The black plastic body or the brushed alloy option?


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Chelmsford Civic Centre War Memorial:
The South Primrose Hill Boys
Chelmsford Great War Memorial contains names of twenty-two men who themselves or whose immediate families lived in South Primrose Hill, Chelmsford during the war.
This represents a disproportionately high number of fatalities bearing in mind the street, a typical Victorian road half a mile west of Chelmsford Station, only contained 83 households during the war.
One terrace of ten properties has four commemorated men - another of 24 has thirteen commemorated. They include one set of three brothers (Staines) and three sets of two brothers (Brown/Cox-Brown, Harris and Woodyard). Five died after the war - three of whom are not officially recognised by Commonwealth War Graves Commission.
Several other men whose families had left South Primrose Hill before the war are also commemorated by the memorial.
The South Primrose Hill Boys were:
Herbert William Cox-Brown; died 03/10/1914; from number 75
Alfred Harris, died 18/12/1915; from number 73
William Francis Dean; died 31/05/1916; from number 45
Alick George Horsnell; died 01/07/1916; from number 6
William Thomas Hoggart; died 03/07/1916; from number 27
Austin Ewart Staines; died 15/07/1916; from number 81
Percy Cardozo Martin; died 17/08/1916; from number 53
William James Whybrow; died 09/10/1916; from number 101
Leonard Raven Berry; died 12/10/1916; from number 39
Charles Edward Brown; died 24/03/1917; from number 75
Ernest Walter Staines; died 26/03/1917; from number 81
Bertie Holgate; died 04/08/1917; from number 41
Henry James Coppen; died 21/03/1918; from number 69
Arthur Monk; died 23/04/1918; from number 107
Thomas Harris; died 12/10/1918; from number 73
Benjamin Albert Woodyard; died 23/10/1918; from number 68
Albert Cyril Harris; died 08/11/1918; from number 67
Joseph Adams Woodyard; died 25/01/1919; from number 74
Harry Walter Berry; died 10/02/1919; from number 103
Arthur Edward Whybrow; died 25/11/1919; from number 47
Henry James Staines; died 24/02/1920; from number 81
Douglas Havelock Newman; died 07/05/1922; from number 99


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Advice to improve your movement, fitness, and overall health
from the world #1 in orthopedics.
Body mechanics expert Jon Cinkay shares four tips to help you dig out – without throwing out your back.
HSS hand therapist Nick Maroldi gives some handy ideas for keeping yourself safer this season.
You've probably heard that vitamin D is important. But what does it do in the body? And how do you know if you need more of it? Find out from HSS bone health expert Marci Goolsby.
Not all back pain is the same. Come learn about this often debilitating condition, including the causes and symptoms of back pain and how we treat it at HSS.
Date: Thursday, March 14, 2024
Time: 10:30 - 11:30 AM
All the hunching and scrolling of modern life sets us all up for neck pain. Learn more from HSS experts about how to relieve chronic or sporadic neck pain, sleeping with neck pain, and when it's time to see a doctor.
Exercise physiologist and certified running coach Pamela Geisel shares how to start off on the right foot to avoid injury and enjoy the journey.
If you're dealing with back pain, it's possible to continue running safely with a few tweaks to your workout.
Planning to run back-to-back races? HSS physical therapist Yukiko Matsuzaki explains what to do between the races to set yourself up for success.
HSS physical therapist Cara Ann Senicola shares how yoga can help runners improve their performance and offers a quick yoga-based warmup for runners of all levels.
Getting high-quality sleep is just as important as the number of hours you spend snoozing.
What's the best sleep position for low back pain? How much does your mattress matter?
Stretching at night can help you fall asleep faster and avoid sleep-related pain. HSS physical therapists Anna Ribaudo and Sheena Alva have 10 stretches to try.


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Tomato Artichoke Soup
2006-01-15 22:34:26.12077+00 by meuon 7 comments
Nancy and I have ended up at Rembrants Coffee/Chocolates in the Art District many Sunday's and have enjoyed their Tomato Artichoke Soup. We decided it was time to recreate it ourselves and have figured out a reasonable fascimile:
1 can artichoke hearts(in water)
1 can tomato soup
1 or 2 tomatoes
1 pint of half and half
1 half a stick of butter
Chop up the artichokes (into quarters/eighths)
Chop up the tomatoes (small pieces)
Put everything into a small pot and bring to a low boil while
stirring. Add a smidgen of salt, paper, and spices to taste.
I used just a little oregeno, parsely and thyme.. let simmer
for a few minutes. Serve with bread or croutons.
Not as fancy as some of Dan and Charlene's dishes, but very yummy, especially on a cold winters day.


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Cocoa police: Search underway for man accused of stealing fire truck
COCOA, Fla. - Cocoa police say they are searching for a man accused of stealing a district chief's fire truck.
The F-250 was stolen from a scene on King Street on Saturday at around 7 p.m. as crews were responding to three different fire calls.
The truck was later found abandoned a few blocks away.
The suspect is described as a white man with a thin build and wearing a blue shirt and khaki pants.
He also has a noticeable tribal 'tattoo sleeve' on his left arm.


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As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. There may be affiliate links within the post.
Get ready for game day parties with these 25 Game Day Air Fryer Recipes!
It's time for football and all those game day parties are here, which means my air fryer is on overdrive making lots of tasty snacks without all the extra oil. These game day air fryer recipes will help get you started!
Of course, an air fryer is perfect for warming up frozen foods such as wings or fries, but it's also PERFECT for making your own homemade game day snacks too.
It's easy to use the Air Fryer for Mozzarella Sticks, Stuffed Mushrooms, Wings, Fried Pickles, Onion Rings…and more. Do you have a favorite, must-have game day snack?
I'd say ours is usually wings…of course!
Can you use foil in the air fryer?
Yes! It's actually a great way to keep the air fryer basket clean. If you do use foil, be sure that the air is still able to circulate.
This means you can leave some room on the sides of the air fryer basket so the air still gets well circulated.
What is the best food to cook in the air fryer?
- Chicken Wings
- Meatballs
- Mozzarella Sticks
- Stuffed Mushrooms
- Onion Rings
- Fried Pickles
- Chicken Tenders
- Jalapeno Poppers
- Garlic Bread Pizzas
- …and more!
Football party foods are PERFECT for the air fryer since it's typically all about the snacks, plus this way it's a bit better for you too without the oil.
Do you need to use oil in the air fryer?
Typically, no oil is required and definitely no large amounts of oil. It is a good idea to keep an oil-like olive oil cooking spray or grapeseed oil spray on hand to give a nice little spray of oil to the foods to keep them golden brown and crispy.
We always keep this on hand to spray the food in the air fryer, it does not take much.
If you need some air fryer accessories, be sure to check out my store on Amazon!
Now as we head into game day, what air fryer snacks will you be serving? I'd love to hear them!
Get ready for game day and football season with these 25 Game Day Air Fryer Recipes!
Make a delicious batch of Air Fryer Beef and Bean Taquitos. These are also simple to make gluten-free too!
Photo Credit:
Make a great plate of Air Fryer Pepperoni Pizza Fries!
Make a delicious treat with these Air Fryer Plate Nachos!
Photo Credit:
Air Fryer Stromboli Ham Cheese Spinach Appetizer is a delicious sandwich to share with friends!
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Air-Fried Bang Bang Shrimp is a game-day must-have.
Make delicious Air Fryer Garlic Bread Pizza Toast in just 5 minutes!
Make tasty air fryer chicken wings in minutes with these 20 Minute Air Fryer Chicken Wings!
Air Fryer Honey Garlic Chicken Wings are the perfect choice for any party!
Air Fryer Fried Pickles are a great option to make with your Air Fryer, plus can be done gluten free too.
Make the best Air Fried Blooming Onion that is also easy to make Gluten-Free too!
In just 15 minutes or less, you will be enjoying these delicious Gluten-Free Air Fryer Stuffed Mushrooms. Make a batch for your next party!
Make an easy, delicious Gluten-Free Air Fryer Onion Rings!
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Air Fryer Pimento Cheese Wontons are a delicious treat for game day!
Make these easy Air Fryer Tortilla Chips in minutes with white corn tortillas and a little bit of oil!
Make easy Air Fryer Bacon Wrapped Jalapeno Poppers for game day or parties!
Make these tasty Air Fryer Buffalo Chicken Tenders in minutes!
Make tasty Air Fryer Buffalo Cauliflower in minutes, it looks like wings but it's a vegetable!
Make Easy Air Fryer Turkey Legs in minutes that are just as tasty as the fair!
Make a great snack with these Air Fried Cheese Curds that can be made gluten-free too!
Make these easy fresh-cut french fries with this Air Fryer French Fries recipe!
Make these easy Air Fried Mushrooms that can also be made gluten-free too!
Make easy Air Fryer Potato Skins using Air Fryer Baked Potatoes!
Make a great tasting Air Fryer Coconut Shrimp that's gluten-free too!
Make an easy snack with these Air Fryer Seasoned Pretzels! They can also be made gluten-free too.
Make this easy Air Fryer Chex Mix in just 6 minutes, simple to make gluten-free too!


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Map size: 20x24 inches
Map Description: Title: Township and railroad map of Minnesota published for the Legislative Manual, 1874. Description Detailed map showing relief by hachures, drainage, cities and towns, township and county boundaries, and the railroad network. Notes: Scale ca. 1:700,000. LC Railroad maps, 241 Description derived from published bibliography. Published: n.p., 1874
Each Map is Hand Printed in our Studio
Fine Art Matte Paper (230g, 14mil) that maintains vivid colors and faithfulness to the original map.
Archival inks guaranteed not to fade for 200+ years
Your map will be shipped in a protective tube via first class mail
Explore more of our maps at our store!
Frame not included
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State of Bavaria in Montreal Office | CONTACT:
We will be happy to answer your questions – by phone at
+ 1 514-985-6515
or by e-mail to
Monday to Friday from 09:00 am to 05:00 pm (Eastern Time Zone).
Technology-oriented start-ups from Bavaria are now receiving support in opening up new foreign markets. With the Bavarian Ministry of Economic Affairs' new "Start-up International" funding program, companies will receive up to €23,000 per target country over a period of 12 months. Minister of Economic Affairs Hubert Aiwanger explains: "Digital and scalable business models know no boundaries. We want to build on this great potential and therefore support start-ups in opening up new foreign markets. In this way, we are promoting the growth and consolidation of the companies. This pays off—because every Bavarian company abroad is also an ambassador for our economy as well."
The program provides 50 percent support for consulting and coaching services, marketing and advertising measures, and participation in trade fairs, among other things. A maximum of two new target countries can be developed. The 2.1-million-euro program is part of the High-Tech Agenda Plus and was developed in close cooperation with the Bavarian Foreign Trade Center and various partners from start-up organizations.
Applications can initially be submitted until September 30, 2022. All further information on the funding program and application at www.startup-international.de.


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Samples | March 19th, 2023
Savvy Sample: Free Brickell Sample Kit.Region: Brickell products are sold at retail store locations across the United States.How to Claim: Add the sample kit to your cart and proceed through checkout. A shipping fee is required.Bonus Info: The kit also includes a $10 offer towards your next Brickell purchase. Finding great men's skincare and hygiene products can be challenging. After all, the usual stuff has everything all rolled into one product (body wash and conditioner?!). This offer gives you a chance to try some of Brickell's bestselling men's products. If you're not in the market for men's skincare and hygiene products, you can clean up with other fantastic free samples available here. Brickell offers a full line of products so that guys can take care of their skin, hair, and body the right way. Curious to check it out? Claim this offer for a free Brickell Sample Kit that includes eight of the brand's bestselling men's products. This includes a trial bottle of face moisturizer, two different face washes, eye cream, body wash, and more. It's great to take with you for travel as well! Just add the sample kit to your cart and go through the checkout process to have it sent to you. Guys can finally give their skin the respect it deserves. Click here to claim your free Brickell Sample Kit! Savvy Star Rating: 3/5 ⭐⭐⭐


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University of Georgia Honors College
Advertising Major
Arnold Palmer or a Terrapin Luau
Stand-up Comic
Someone once said Sam Grove was a regular Conan O'Brian combined with a touch of Paul McCartney and Charlie Brown. As far as we know that someone doesn't exist, but he claims they were quite pleasant to be around. Sam was born and raised in Nashville, Tennessee. Before long he packed up his cowboy hat and boots and headed straight for the Peach State. Sam's time at the University of Georgia helped evolve and sharpen his creative skills. His involvement with Talking Dog Agency and enthusiasm for writing made him a great fit for Marbury and joined the team in 2022. Suffice it to say, Sam has been on the write track ever since.
As the Copywriter and Creative Manager, Sam assists the social and account team by creating engaging social media content as it relates to copy. He is also involved in the creative process and contributes to brainstorms and concepting for agency clients alongside the Creative Director. Apart from this, Sam takes pride in his capability of writing in the third person.
©2024 Marbury Creative Group, LLC


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Wildwood ready to rock with stellar cast of Enduro stars
The Husqvarna Motorcycles Wildwood Rock Extreme might just deliver the Enduro of the year and adding to the international flavour that Wildwood delivers is French Factory Husqvarna rider Mathias Bellino and Factory New Zealand Sherco Brothers Hamish and Angus Macdonald.
With a Pro class already filled with Australia's best extreme riders in Daniel Sanders, Mitch Harper, Broc Grabham, Tim Coleman, Robert Nowak and Chris Perry just to name a few you have a mix of past Wildwood Winners and Australian International Extreme event Riders in the group.
With 100 Riders set to be a part of the 2016 event each class is very competitive and will be hard to pick a winner.
Joining the eight Women on the track is multi World Champion Jess Gardiner who has just returned from the International Six day where Jess and her team mates won the Women's Gold.
But all eyes will be heavily focused on The Factory KTM star Daniel "Chucky' Sanders the raining Wildwood Champion from 2015 who has a floorless year on his KTM300 winning the E3 class at the Six day and taking the outright win for the Australia Off-road championship.
The Track for this year is the freshes riders have seen, we have set the goal to make this year the hardest track of all past years gone by. This week sees an extra 150 ton of rocks added and plenty of logs pointing in all directions. The swinging tyre house has been transformed as the Hard Enduro Parts Pine forest and the Sunbury Bakers delight Wooden Matrix has seen a 1 meter high log added to test the best. With so many new objects for riders you will have to attend to see the action and how they tackle the course.
Prologue from 9am and the main 3 hour event will kick off from 11am.
A large amount of food and display stalls around the prologue area and a big Red bus shuttling spectators down to the Beta Rock Garden. The first 1000 people through the gate will get a free raffle ticket to go into the draw to win some sponsor prizes on the day.
Entry prices – Adults $20 10-16yrs $10
Kids under 10's are Free for a great family day.
The Wildwood Rock Extreme Enduro details can be accessed via the Event webpage – www.wildwoodrockextreme.com.
Wildwood Rock Extreme 2016 is supported to date by these great sponsors in Husqvarna Motorcycles, Honda Motorcycle, KTM Motorcycles, Beta Motorcycles Australia, Force Accessories, Ringmaster images, Terra Off-road Tours, Global Racing Oils, Bakers Delight, Raceline Motorcycle Ballarat, Raceway Motorcycles, Slipstream Motorcycles, Powerhouse Motorcycles, Hassel-free tours, Hard Enduro Parts, Sunbury Mowers and chainsaws, Golden Tyre Australia, EK Chains, Nolan Helmets, AFAM Sprockets, Haasle-Free High Country Tours and a big thanks to the Wildwood Rock Motorcycle Club members who make the event run so smooth.


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Welcome to November and the 2019 holiday shopping season! Apparently, we're late. According to a 2019 online survey from The Harris Poll and OpenX, 50% of people started shopping for their loved ones' wish lists back in August.
So what other statistics have we glossed over or just plain missed? What predictions presage new customer purchase and return trends that will impact retailer supply chains? Let's review some of the most interesting predictions and statistics for this year's holiday shopping season.
Merry and Bright: Total Retailer Holiday Sales Will Increase 3.8 – 5% YOY in 2019
Retailers should expect a multi-billion dollar increase in 2019 sales over last year's results:
- The National Retail Federation, or NRF, predicts the most modest increase in holiday shopping at 3.8 – 4.2% more than 2018. In all, the NRF expects retailers to generate between $727.9 billion and $730.7 billion in revenue for the 2019 holiday shopping season.
- The same Harris Poll/OpenX survey we cited earlier believes retailers should expect a round 5% increase in year-over-year holiday shopping sales.
- Deloitte recently released its Holiday Retail Sales Forecast for 2019, in which it predicted a 4.5-5% jump in retailers' holiday sales YOY. In total, Deloitte projects an enormous $1.1 trillion in total holiday sales from November to January.
These forecasts are based on a still-strong economy and low unemployment, but are tempered by the trade tensions between the United States and China.
Digital Sales Will See Double-Digit Increase for 2019 Holiday Shopping Season
The research team behind the Harris Poll/Open X survey expects that for the first time, over half of all shopping in the 2019 holiday season – 53% of all purchases – will be done digitally. This substantial increase over previous years is corroborated by other sources:
- The NRF predicts a 11-14% year-over-year increase in digital purchases. In all, it predicts digital transactions will account for between $162.6 billion and $166.9 billion of 2019 holiday sales revenue – up from $146.5 billion last year.
- In analyzing half a billion global shopper habits, its own internal data of eCommerce retailers and a survey of 10,000+ consumers, Salesforce predicts a 13% YOY increase in online shopping. It believes total digital sales will reach $131 billion.
- Deloitte is the most optimistic of our forecasts, predicting a 14-18% YOY rise in digital sales this holiday season. It sees e-commerce holiday sales reaching between $144 – 149 billion this year.
"Convenience is the new retail currency."
So how can retailers leverage these predictions? Rod Sides, a vice chairman of Deloitte LLP and U.S. retail and distribution sector leader, has a few suggestions.
"Convenience is the new retail currency," he told the media. "Retailers who offer seamless experiences, have products available and can deliver items more quickly [are] most likely to win this holiday season."
A convenient shopping experience also means having a convenient and effective returns policy. Whether a retailer offers refunds, store credit, exchanges or a combination of the three, great return policies can encourage customers to buy again – during the holiday season and beyond.


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Don't have an account?
Active IQ Unified Manager Discussions
we have thresholds defined for 80% of max iops and these are triggering during Backups on sundays
if any way to schedule or not trigger alerts during a time window
OPM currently does not support disabling alerts for a specific timeframe.
We will consider this suggestion for future release
Avijit Sikder
Product Manager, OPM
We are looking for exactly this functionality also.
We have custom thresholds set for a lot of volumes , IOPS wise, but every morning we come in to Inbox's full of alerts triggered by the overnight backup runs.
If we could have multiple scheules to define different thresholds by time of day/week it would be perfect 🙂
If not if we could at least disable them during a time window it would be better than what we come in to every morning now.
My fear is with so many 'false' alarms real events will get missed as we keep winding the thrsholds up to try and reduce the spam.
Hello Groove:
I totally agree with you that the product should provide flexibility around scheduling different thresholds. We will consider this feature in our upcoming releases.
There is a Duration field for "Create Threshold Policy" page. I have seen many users configuring the duration period to 60 minutes to minimize the alerts. MIght be a work-around for you.
Thanks for your feedback.
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StampingPals Challenge #11 - Sneak Peek of Pretty Perennials bundle
Happy New Year!!! Wishing us all a happier, safer 2021! The StampingPals monthly challenges continue with #11 (Color Challenge using Daffodil Delight, Pear Pizazz and Balmy Blue - see below for sketch). I'm happy to provide a sneak peek into the new Mini Catalog which will go live on www.stampingup.com on January 5th. I love new products and the Pretty Perennials bundle is just amazing. I adore the new "happy" stamp in this large beautiful font. . .and we certainly need to start the new year with some happy. I also used the brick embossing folder for the background and a small pearl in the flower center to make the final touch. I hope you love this card, and that you'll pop on over to www.stampingpals.com and see what the other stampers have created for this month! We'd love for you to join us in these challenges. It's easy and a great way to get your creative flow moving forward. Enjoy!


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School choice opened my eyes to a diverse and culturally enriched world
Today, I'm a junior at Howard University. But things could have turned out differently if I didn't have the opportunity to pursue a different educational path when I was younger.
Thankfully, my parents were given the option to exercise school choice, which is, unfortunately, not the norm for every student in America.
My story begins in the 4th grade, when I attended my neighborhood elementary school.
There, I was intimidated. I shied away from speaking up in class. I only passed through grades because I seemed like a good student — but I didn't really understand my lessons. Teachers did their best, but there were 50 students in our class: they often stopped lessons to discipline students, and seemed overworked and stressed.
That's when my mother found out about KIPP — Ujima Village Academy in Baltimore, Maryland. KIPP was one of the top performing charter school programs in the state.
In just one semester, I went from reading on a second grade level to a seventh grade level. I went from struggling in school to consistently making honor roll.
She entered my name in the lottery and I got accepted.
I was excited — only to find out that, after taking my entrance test, my reading skills were on a second grade level.
I entered fifth grade determined to work hard and succeed. At KIPP, classes and school days were longer, and class sizes were smaller. I got involved and joined the lacrosse, debate, and basketball teams.
My confidence began to soar!
It didn't take long for my grades begin to soar, too. In just one semester, I went from reading on a second grade level to a seventh grade level. I went from struggling in school to consistently making honor roll.
So, when it came time to make a decision about high school, my advisor told me that my grades and recommendation letters could get me into any high school of my choosing.
She encouraged me to push myself outside of my comfort zone, and recommended boarding school.
After visiting several private options across Baltimore, my family and I chose St. Margaret's Girls Boarding School in Tappahannock, Virginia.
Because I excelled in the classroom, I received a scholarship that covered most of my tuition. My parents worked hard, made sacrifices, and paid the rest.
There, I was exposed to people from all over the world. My first roommate was from Ghana. It was such an eye-opening experience.
Along with my "sisters" at St. Margaret's, I felt prepared for college. In fact, advisors told me that I had the grades to attend any university — even an Ivy League.
My life, and my story, has taught me that all students — regardless of their family's income and zip-code — should have the opportunity to receive a high-quality education.
Still, I often think of students — including several of my former classmates at KIPP — who didn't have the same opportunities I had. I think about parents who can't choose the best learning environment for their child, as my parents did. It doesn't seem right.
Don't they deserve better?
Kendra is a junior at Howard University majoring in political science.


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One of the key decision factors in deploying deep packet inspection (DPI) and choosing a solution that best fits one's network needs, is cost. Cost-per-transmitted-bit for example, evaluates how much operators are paying for a fixed amount of data processed by their network. This evaluation is particularly important in 5G, where traffic is expected to record phenomenal growth rates over the coming years. According to Ericsson, global mobile data traffic reached around 33 EB per month in 2019 and it's expected to grow by almost a factor of 5 to reach 164EB per month in 2025.1 With 5G devices making their debut, and with 5G networks being rapidly deployed in key markets, the much touted 5G use cases from cloud gaming to remote surgery to HD video streaming are expected to load the network with new streams of heavy data flows. To meet this demand, network operators need DPI solutions that can be scaled up in real time, without huge outlays in the form of re-investments and continuous upgrades.
Delivering new 5G
In 5G, ultra-reliable low-latency (URLLC) use cases such as industrial automation, remote healthcare and autonomous driving demand that networks deliver latencies lower than 1 ms. Enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB) and Massive Machine Type Communications (mMTC) use cases demand peak downlink data speeds and user-experienced speeds of 20 Gbit/s and 100 Mbit/s, respectively. Any user plane functions (UPF) deployed between the N6 interface and the 5G user equipment (UE) must process traffic at these latencies and speeds, because the slightest processing delays may result in a disastrous impact on the operator's SLAs.
The processing capabilities of DPI libraries embedded into UPFs consequently become a major requirement in order to accommodate 5G service classes. With 5G, a network-wide upgrade of the underlying computing capacity is inevitable. However, what often baffles operators, is figuring out the exact upgrade requirements needed to support new 5G traffic volumes and the lower latencies, and ensuring that those upgrades meet the overall 5G network performance needs.
CPU capacity and DPI performance
We decided that the best way to put the uncertainties around capacity upgrades to rest, specifically for DPI, is to quantify the impact of different deployment options on state-of-the-art x86 server hardware. To do so, we collaborated with Intel® Network Builders on a series of tests that took place a few weeks ago. The following tests were executed on an Intel server board (Intel® Server System R2208WFQZS) powered by two Intel Xeon Scalable Gold 6230N processors (0x500002c), with 384 GB of memory (24 16 GB 2666 DDR4 memory modules), two 512 GB SSD M.2 SATA 3.0 drives along with four Intel SSD DC P4510 Series 1.0TB SSD PCIe NVMe 3.0 drives. Networking was provided by four Intel® Ethernet Network Adapter XXV710-DA2 dual port 25 GbE Ethernet controllers.
Impact of NUMA alignment on DPI performance
While superior server processing capabilities amplify the throughput metrics of DPI, there are a number of other variables, related to server capacity, that play an important role in determining the DPI performance. Processing capability is also dictated by the processor's architectural features. One such feature is Non-Uniform Memory Access (NUMA). NUMA is part of a shared memory architecture that defines the positioning of a server's main memory modules in relation to its processors, in a multi-processor system.
During the lab test, we extended our testing to assess the impact of NUMA alignment on the performance of R&S®PACE 2. Again, we deployed Intel® Xeon® Gold 6230N CPUs. Our objective is to illustrate how NUMA misalignment –vs- misalignment affects DPI throughput.
We ran the test using both scenarios – one, where we used the ability of R&S®PACE 2 APIs to allocate memory resources with NUMA-aware sub-initialization functions for each worker thread. In the second scenario, we purposely misaligned the thread to the remote NUMA-node with the result that the necessary data were accessed via the Intel® QuickPath Interconnect (Intel® QPI) bus.
R&S®PACE 2 NUMA support
R&S®PACE 2 supports integration using NUMA-aware sub-initialization functions for each worker thread. That is considered best practice for multi-socket systems in order to allocate requested memory with the requesting NUMA node. Otherwise, all per thread processing data, such as tracking tables for subscriber and flows, can be misaligned. In that suboptimal case, the affected processing threads have to access the remote memory via QPI. This results in a higher workload on the bus and additional latency overhead compared to direct local memory access.
Test results
More specifically, the tests showed that misaligned NUMA worker threads can result in up to a 25.4% decrease in throughput on a server powered by an Intel® Xeon® Gold 6230N CPU. The impact of the misalignment is more visible across application-centric traffic flows compared to default profiles delivered with Open source TRex traffic generator, like rtsp.yaml or sfr3.yaml[2]. These profiles require significantly less memory access to the flow and subscriber hash tables compared to a mixed-application DPI (mixed_dpi.yaml) profile.
The results of both tests, while expected, make an exciting find. Existing and future users of R&S®PACE 2 can benefit from its NUMA-aware multithreading APIs and hence avoid performance declines that are common with misalignments. The integration of R&S®PACE 2 with packet processing frameworks like DPDK, XDP or VPP will have a far-reaching impact on the deployment of DPI into 5G UPFs, specifically where ultra-low latencies are expected.
Get the full test results: https://www.ipoque.com/news-media/resources/whitepapers/ipoque-tests-deep-packet-inspection-for-5g-networks
We did a live webinar co-hosted with Intel on the topic "DPI performance measurements for 5G UPF setups". You can register via this link to watch it on demand if you wish to gain more information on this topic.
1 Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2020, Mobile data traffic
2 https://github.com/cisco-system-traffic-generator/trex-core/tree/master/scripts/cap2


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London SEO Agencies – If you own a website, you want the site to be found by potential clients. While there are many ways to do that, one of the best ways is to focus on Search Engine Optimization. SEO is the practice that makes sure your website allows search engines like Bing, Yahoo, and Google to search quickly, index, and display your website in search results. However, SEO can be tricky, so it is essential to hire one of the numerous SEO agencies out there to help you in getting the results you desire. So why should any business employ an SEO agency? Read on to find out.
Why Should You Hire An SEO Agency?
- SEO Agency Have Experience
While you may have the basics of SEO, you may not have much experience in actually optimizing your website. SEO companies have both the experience and knowledge necessary to make smart decisions for your site that increase visibility. Partnering with an experienced SEO company like Business Relauncher will give you the peace of mind that a professional is handling your unique ranking situation, needs, and expectations.
- SEO Agency Will Improve Your Website
SEO has become essential if you want to reach potential customers. Without SEO, your site may never get the exposure it needs to rank highly. However, you may find it challenging to increase your sales online and directly compete with others in your industry unless your site is well optimized to load quickly. An SEO agency can help you to implement the methods that are crucial for reaching potential customers, while also reducing the money you need to spend on marketing.
- SEO Agency Get The Best Results
There are possibilities that you won't be able to match the same level of success when compared to an SEO professional, even if you mean well or do a great deal of research. An SEO agency with many years of experience will be able to evaluate your website goals and your competitors and create a plan to increase your visibility in search engines. So, if your website appears on the top, there are more chances for your business to get exposed.
- SEO Agency Allows You To Focus On What You Do Best
Chosen a professional SEO company enables you to focus on doing what you do best–running your business–while they take care of the rest. What interests us most is that you'll be less stressed about how your website is performing in the search engine because you'll already know that a group of professionals is handling that aspect for you.
Where To Find A Reputable SEO Agency?
Business Relauncher has the knowledge, and experience you need to see real results on your site. As one of the best London SEO agencies, you can rely on us to deliver high visibility and top search engine rankings for your business. So whatever your London SEO needs may be, Business Relauncher is here for you. Contact us today if you need more information about our service.


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Inspired by artists like Michael Bublé and The Jackson Five, BoomTown puts their own spin on swing standards, pop classics, and even some country and gospel favorites.
Calling Kansas and North Carolina home, Zane Sutton (Tenor), Caleb Fouse (Lead), Aaron Walker (Baritone), and Shaun Whisler (Bass) are changing the stereotypes of barbershop harmony, and bringing their unique style to audiences all over the country.
Together since the fall of 2012, BoomTown's time together has had no shortage of exciting moments and opportunities.
Their first appearance on the Barbershop Harmony Society's International competition stage came in Toronto, Ontario, Canada in July 2013. In October 2014, BoomTown was honored to be named the Central States District quartet champions, and have qualified for Internationals every year since. In 2017 in Las Vegas, they finished in 21st place and served as the mic-testers for the semifinal round. In 2018, BoomTown competed in Orlando, Florida and was named 19th-place semifinalists. After a 28th place finish in 2019, a two-year COVID-19 shutdown of all contests, conventions, and shows, and one recorded album, BoomTown returned to the International stage in 2022 and to the Top 20, finishing 19th.
No matter where the quartet travels, their passion and belief in music shine greatly through their performance. BoomTown is dedicated to the advancement of the barbershop style and strives to get young people interested in singing. To connect with BoomTown and follow along on their journey, LIKE them on Facebook, and FOLLOW them on Twitter and Instagram.


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1.5 Carat Diamond Solitaire Ring w/ Enhancer in 14K White Gold (7.80 g) (, I1-I2), Size 4
This fabulous diamond bridal set features a sparkling 1 1/2 carat clarity enhanced round shape center diamond in I-J color, I1-I2 clarity. It is surrounded by two side diamonds in the ring enhancer totaling 1/5 carat. Total carat weight is 1. 70 [read more…]
Rings Engagement Rings Gold White Gold adult female Size 4
Price Info: 1.5 Carat Diamond …


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But will everyone pay the prices? Could his methods feed the world's most populous country? Zhu Zhaoliang, in his office at the Institute of Soil Science in Nanjing, laughed out loud at the question. "Organic farming is not a solution for China," he says flatly. Yet there may be middle ground-excellent harvests with reduced nitrogen pollution-and some of the world's most intensely studied fields are pointing the way toward it. The fields, each exactly a hectare in size, are part of Michigan State University's Kellogg Biological Station, near Kalamazzo. For 20 years these fields have been growing corn, soybeans, and wheat in exactly the same rhythm, providing a side-by-side comparison of four different ways to farm, ranging from mainstream to organic. Everything that enters or leaves the fields of carefully measured: rainfall, fertilizer, nitrous oxide emitted from the soil, water that leaches into groundwater, and finally the harvest.
Michigan State's Phil Robertson, who helped set up this long-running experiment, takes me on a tour of the fields. He's itching to reveal some new and "quite amazing" data. Each field planted according to standard plowing and fertilizer recommendations released 610 pounds of nitrogen per acre into Michigan's shallow groundwater over the past 11 years. "So about half of the fertilizer that's added we lose," Robertson says. This loss is much less than what's common in China. Yet when multiplied by tens of millions of acres of American cropland, it is enough to produce polluted groundwater, a nutrient-loaded Mississippi River, and an enormous dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico.
The organic fields in Robertson's experiment, which received no commercial fertilizer or manure, lost only a third as much-but those fields also produced 20 percent less grain. Intriguingly, the "low input" fields, which received small amount of fertilizer but were also planted with winter cover crops, offered the best of both worlds: average yields were about as high as those from the conventional fields, but nitrogen leaching was much reduced, almost to the level of the organic fields. If America's farmers could cut their nitrogen losses to something close to the level, Robertson thinks, restored wetland and revived small streams could clean up the rest. As in China, though many farmers find it hard to change. When a family's livelihood is at stake, it may seem safer to apply too much fertilizer than too little. "Being a good steward currently has economic consequences that are unfair," says Robertson.
Viewed from Africa, the problem of overusing commercial fertilizer seems like a luxury. African farmers use meager quantities of the stuff-just seven pounds per acre on average. Alternative sources, such as manure or legume crops, are scarce as well.
Many in Africa's rural villages have fallen into a set of vicious circles. Fearing hunger, they concentrate on crops like rice or corn that deliver maximum calories but that tend to strip nutrients from the soil. Depleted land delivers increasingly poor harvests, leaving farmers too financially strapped to afford fertilizer, from whatever source. And since there is little demand for commercial fertilizer, no one makes it locally, so it's imported and expensive.
According to many experts, African soils are being mined. The natural reservoirs of fertility-nutrients stored in the organic matter of decomposing roots and from previous centuries-are shrinking as farming extracts more nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium every year than it replaces. This leaves the land progressively less able to feed the people who depend on it-"a scenario for disaster over the long run," according to the World Bank.
The average grain yield in sub-Sahara Africa is about 900 pounds per acre, just one-fifth the average in China. Nearly everyone who's looked at the situation agrees: African farmers need more nitrogen to improve their harvests and their lives. But there's a ranging, bitter debate over where they should get it.
Some, like Jeffrey Sachs at Colombia University's Earth Institute, believe that increasing agricultural production demands more commercial fertilizer, and if poor African farmers can't afford it, then wealthier nations should provide it. In 80 villages across ten different African countries, Sachs' Millennium Villages Project passes out bags of improved seeds and fertilizer. And the project's having a big impact, according to its own data. In the millennium villages of Tanzania, Kenya, and Malawi, grain production doubled almost immediately.
In 2006 the government of Malawi started providing cheap fertilizer to about half of the nation's farmers. Production of corn doubled-although good rains get much of the credit. These programs, however, are haunted by doubts about the future. Fertilizer subsidies were tried in many African countries during the 1970s and 1980s but fell out of favor because they were expensive and plagued by corruption. Malawi's current subsidy program is already in trouble: the government is running out of money to pay for it.
"Africa cannot afford massive amounts of fertilizer," says Sieglinde Snapp, a crop scientist at Michigan State University. A more sustainable approach, he says, is greater reliance on nitrogen-fixing plants. Thousands of farm families in Malawi have begun growing nitrogen-adding pigeon peas and peanuts on their land, replacing some of their corn. It's part of the ten-year-old experiment begun by local farmers, and agricultural researchers.
Because peas made the soil more fertile, the next season's corn harvest was larger-more than making up for the fact that less land was being planted with corn. "Less corn is more corn," says Snapp. Plus that bonus crop of pigeon peas provided more nutritious protein-rich meals. "But it didn't happen overnight," says Snapp. "It took education on how to use the legumes. It was 20 years of work, with a hospital involved. People changed their recipes."
Snapp's observation-that acquiring and conserving nitrogen in the future will take considerable know-how and patience-is echoed by many people engaged in this worldwide quest. Asked what Chinese agriculture needs most, soil scientist Zhu Zhaoliand responds quickly. "More scale"-meaning larger, more skillfully managed farms. Ron Rosmann, in Iowa, explains that farming without added nitrogen "takes more management, more labor, and more attention to detail. We are kind of fanatics."
A century ago, when chemist Fritz Haber first learned how to capture nitrogen from the air, synthetic fertilizer seemed like an easy shortcut out of scarcity, delivering a limitless supply of agriculture's most important nutrient. Yet new limits on nitrogen are appearing. The time the innovations that save us-and our planet-may be invented in a chemistry laboratory. Instead they may come from farmers and fields in every corner of the world.
Dan Charles
Source: DIJEST, January 2014


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Welcome back to another episode of Back to Excited. Today we discuss:
- [1:20] How the Leafs have looked in their first two games under Keefe, including the tactical adjustments they've made, and how they're generating higher quality shots.
- [24:06] The Leafs penalty kill, which has still been a little worrisome.
- [28:05] Morgan Rielly's PK troubles and his troubles in general this season.
- [36:23] Arvind rants about how Barrie's usage under Babcock was fine.
- [39:30] The psychology of coaching changes, and whether the team had simply tuned out Mike Babcock to a degree.
- [46:00] What Babcock did and didn't do, and why having honest discussions about him is going to become more difficult.
- [52:53] The tradeoffs the Leafs may be making for the sake of their offence under Keefe, and why the Leafs defence will likely still be bad despite the changes Keefe may make.
- [56:15] Auston Matthews' defence.
- [59:15] Katya joins us in roasting bad takes; this mostly includes bad narratives about Babcock's usage, and Greg Millen claiming Sheldon Keefe invented sliced bread, penicillin, and using sticks for hockey.
- [1:05:04] The optimism we all have in light of the strong two games under Keefe.
- [1:07:31] The Leafs 4th line usage, and how it changed in the Colorado game. We also discuss Pontus Aberg, Dmytro Timashov, and Kenny Agostino.
- [1:18:31] Sheldon Keefe's defenceman problem (he doesn't have enough good ones)
- [1:20:01] Has Dermott's progression stalled?/
As always, you can find us on Apple Podcasts and Soundcloud. Let us know what you want us to cover in future episodes!


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6/10 EVOLVE 62 iPPV Results: Ybor CIty, Florida
* Fred Yehi def. Anthony Nese.
* Ethan Page def. Darby Allen.
* Matthew Riddel def. Cedric Alexander.
* Drew Gulak and Tracy Williams def. The Bravado Brothers to retain the EVOLVE Tag Team Championships.
* Timothy Thatcher def. Chris Hero to retain the EVOLVE Championship.
* Drew Galloway and EC3 def. Johnny Gargano and TJP in a street fight tag team match.
Source: Prowrestling.net
As predicted it was a war at #Evolve62 So wild the cops were called but never fear, old Galloway smoothed it over pic.twitter.com/AQvrW0xtS2
— Drew Galloway (@GallowaySpeaks) June 11, 2016


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Posted by Exto Collaborator on
Happy New Year from everyone at Gloriously Geek!
We started trading in Oct 2018 and honestly cannot believe the support, well wishes and customer feedback we have had in such a short time.
Heading into 2019 we hope to grow and expect to see new gifts, apparel and collectables arriving soon as well as new competitions and exclusive deals!
To kick start the new year we have Lowered the price of all our T-Shirts now to £9.95 each! So now is a great time to show of your Geek ID with a huge selection from Marvel, DC, Harry Potter and more!
While we don't have any pop-up shops planned heading into the new year after the success that was out Blyth residency if anything changes you will hear about it first and keep up with all the latest going on at Gloriously Geek by following us on Facebook and Instagram!
Here's to a Glorious 2019! - Mick
#GloriouslyGeek #BeGloriousBeGeek


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Dear Storytellers and Story Listeners,
Missouri Storytelling, Inc. celebrates storytelling and Missouri history around the entire state of Missouri, with members from all over the Region. Our membership includes storytellers and listeners alike.
We are proud of the benefits we offer our members, Missouri State Parks Storytelling, Missouri Liar's contest, Web site presence for storytellers, National Storytelling Network affiliation and a World Class newsletter.
Our fiscal year runs from February 1 through January 31. Memberships are paid annually or biennially, as a single member or a dual membership.
Membership dues are due by January 31.
You may be in one of the following categories:
New member
Current member with dues expiring in 2019
Current member with dues expiring in 2020
Former member
We want to keep you as one of our members. We want to hear from you. Please consider joining or rejoining MO-TELL now.
Contact Joyce Slater, President, with suggestions.
Contact Jackie Wright, Treasurer, with your membership dues and information.
Joyce Slater, President
Jackie Wright, Treasurer,
Join MO-TELL today!
Membership dues and Gifts
Fiscal year, February 1-January 31
Membership Annual dues
Single membership 1 year $25
Single membership 2 years $40
Family membership 1 year $35
Family membership 2 years $50
Lifetime membership $250
Lifetime membership (age 60+) $200
Your membership will not be active until payment has been received.
Email Jackie Wright at firstname.lastname@example.com to arrange payment.


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Renault Trucks will partner with two of the UK's leading brands in announcing the sale of its first two 100% electric medium duty vehicles.
Warburtons, the UK's largest bakery brand, is introducing the first Renault Trucks D Z.E. 16t. Equipped with box body with rear side door and tail lift by PPS Commercials, this distribution model will join Warburtons secondary bread fleet carrying around six tonnes of bread and bakery products to multiple locations around London using only battery power and emitting no tailpipe emissions.
SUEZ recycling and recovery UK, a world leader in water and waste, is committed to the smart and sustainable management of resources and this now extends to the introduction of the first fully electric Renault Trucks D Wide Z.E. 26t refuse vehicle to the UK.
As Bristol is one of the UK cities with the highest environmental ambitions, SUEZ will use the D Wide Z.E. to collect commercial waste from city centre locations for processing at the company's recycling and reprocessing site, reducing the city's carbon footprint in multiple ways.


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Brownie had been at a shelter for two years, and was slowly beginning to deteriorate. She was the longest resident at the Town of Hempstead Animal Shelter, and desperately needed to get out. Thanks to an article by The Examiner, she found her knight in shining armor.
From the Town of Hempstead Animal Shelter:
The wait is over, here is the first of our beautiful dogs to join the #pitbullflowerpower series by Sophie Gamand. We decided to post this one first, because it is the most urgent… Please read to the end.
For 25 long, excruciating, lonely, stressful months, our girl Brownie has endured life inside the walls of our shelter. Brownie, who is just shy of 3 years old (and a petite 40 pounds), has not only spent the majority of her life here, but is also our LONGEST resident in the entire building. Out of approximately 140 dogs, this girl has sat and waited the longest out of anyone else. As she grew up inside our kennel, she watched as dogs came and left, getting adopted into loving homes, while she sat and waited, and frankly, deteriorated. Two years is too long for any animal to be caged, but it has really taken its toll on Brownie and we need her to get out of the shelter before she deteriorates further.
Due to Brownie's length of stay with us, her deterioration here, and her unhappiness about being locked up most of her life, to be honest, she doesn't look good in the cage (But can you blame her?). What Brownie needs is someone willing to overlook her cage behavior, and come to meet her OUT of the cage. Let Brownie show you who she can be, let Brownie win you over with her soulful eyes, playfulness with other dogs, and her inspiring determination to get through this time in her life and make it to happier days. She knows there is someone out there for her, but it is our responsibility to find that person. Brownie has waited long enough, and her time is coming to an end. Her time is NOW to get OUT of the shelter and into a loving home – for her own well-being and sanity, we can't let her sit here another day.
Her hero responded to The Examiner's article:
Hello. EVERYONE! I hope someone sees this. My name is John Coban and I just came back from the town of Hempstead Animal Shelter and met with Brownie. I filled out the application to foster her in my home. I had just lost my beloved black Lab four weeks ago and I am heartbroken. I've been seeing all these posts and articles on Brownie and decided I needed to do something. So now I am waiting to see if I am approved.
Upon meeting Brownie, I noticed she's a little skittish and growled at me a little. This kind of thing didn't bother me. Being locked in a kennel for over two years would do that. Brownie is not big at all but looks healthy. She didn't pay too much attention to me, being outside and smelling the grass and getting a bit of fresh air. No problem! I have two cats at home and was told Brownie seems okay with cats as well as dogs, but if approved I will take precautions, as well.
The two main reasons I am posting this message is one, I want to let all those concerned about Brownie's welfare that there is hope. Secondly, I had noticed that some people who posted, expressed a willingness to donate towards Brownie's foster. If I do get approved, would anyone out there be willing to help with that? At the present moment, I've been unemployed for a year now and I also just lost my long time renter, who moved out. I am now doing eBay selling and hustling, but things are tight.
I want to make fully sure I can take care of Brownie without any financial distress. I feel crappy even asking for help but this is my situation. Nor am I looking to get rich or have a great time on other's hard earned wages. Money means nothing to me other than its necessary to survive. So, with that said, I'm trying to gauge if there is a kind-hearted soul who can help. If not, it won't deter me from helping Brownie. I will do the best I can on my own. Also, feel free to share this and/or inbox me. I will respond to ALL who do. Right now I am just waiting word and I will post as soon as I hear back from the shelter. Thank you all and let's pray I get approved. Be well, everyone.
Hello, Everyone, my name is John Coban and I have terrific news regarding Brownie, the Town of Hempstead Animal Shelter dog that HAD been in her kennel cage for over 26 months and who hundreds of people inquired and commented about. BROWNIE IS NO LONGER THERE! Despite having lost my beloved dog, Mecca, just five weeks ago, who I am still grieving for on a daily basis and will be for a very long time, I began seeing posts from various rescue groups and even the online newspaper, The Examiner, regarding Brownie, who NO ONE was taking a chance on.
Out of over 140 animals at The Town of Hempstead Animal Shelter, Brownie was there the longest. I was told she displayed growling in her cage and I suppose that was one of the reasons she was passed by. Well, being stuck in a cage for that long would do that to any animal or human for that matter. I said to hell with this, I had to do something, so I did. I went down to TOHAS and filled out the application to foster her. Right at this very moment, as I write this message, Brownie is NOW in my backyard on a nice, soft blanket and pillow, chilling and relaxing, while the warm sun bathes her brown coat. I've had Brownie now for four days and she is nothing but pure joy and happiness, quick to give licks and love and unfettered affection.
For the life of me, I just can't understand why no one took a chance on this beautiful creature. I'm glad I did. As I had posted earlier, I have been out of work for over a year now and despite being a proud soul, I would like to see if anyone would be willing to donate or make a real monetary pledge towards Brownie's future care? Many people who commented on Brownie, messaged they would help donate to her foster. Well, I suppose now that is me. I'm not looking to get rich on this but having just lost my dog, Mecca and being out of work for so long and being a homeowner in Nassau County, the most expensive county on earth, I know all too well how costly it is to feed, house and doctor these gifts from God. If anyone is willing, my PayPal account is [email protected]. You can also inbox me on my Facebook page. Anything you can give would be greatly appreciated. Recent pictures of Brownie can also be viewed on my Facebook page, as well. Whoever sees this, please SHARE with EVERYONE. Thank you, again for your concern, regarding Brownie (She's in terrific hands) and God bless to all animals and the humans who protect them…..
Petrinha is now Hempstead's current longest member. This cutie is four years old and has spent half of her life in a shelter. Give her a home today! Click here for more info or call 516-785-5220.


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The Problem of the EndgameJohn Mauldin Last week we looked at my 2005 Forecast. This week, we ponder the far more interesting question of where I could (or will!) be wrong and why and what would be the consequences. This week's topic came about as I was talking on Tuesday with Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment Management Company. He and Dr. Lacy Hunt had just published their 2005 Forecast and I considered it quite thoughtful. I called to ask if we could use it for next Monday's Outside the Box. He had just read my forecast, and noted that we disagreed in a few areas. "That is precisely," I noted, "why I want to use it. Outside the Box is supposed to be about different ideas." While I think long term rates will go up, he and Hunt think they will be essentially flat or maybe even drop. We talked about this and some other scenarios, with both of us noting that we could be wrong on one thing or another. "The really useful thing would be to know," I said, "where we are going to be wrong." Let's be clear about one thing: it is quite likely that one or more of my predictions will be wrong, hopefully because I was not optimistic enough. As Yogi Berra noted, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." In today's complex world, it is especially tough. For quick review, let's look briefly at last week's musings. I called the forecast "The See-Saw Economy" as it will take some precise balance and coordination amongst all parties to continue the game. (You can read the forecast issue at www.2000wave.com.) I think the economy is likely to grow around 3%, a little below consensus. I think long term interest rates rise, and the Fed increases rates more than most think, topping 4% before the end of the year, barring the beginning of an economic slowdown. Short rates rise faster than long rates, thus we see the yield curve flatten. Since the US and world economy should continue to expand nicely, demand for oil should increase or stay steady. Plus, OPEC really likes high oil prices, and running up to $50 did not do any material harm to their customers. Oil will go sideways in a volatile trading range with an average in the low to mid-$40's, but with the surprise to the upside. I do not like the stock market in a rising interest rate and/or rising inflation environment. If we get both in the first half of the year, I really do not like stocks, but I tend to see another trading range year like last year, but this time with the pressure to the downside. (Along with my usual caveat that when a recession appears on the horizon, the market will start to materially slump. We just do not know when that will be - read more below.) The dollar should bounce in the first part of the year until we can get some more dollar bulls, or at least wash out the bears, and then the dollar resumes it slide. Gold will do the inverse of the dollar. The trade deficit gets worse in the first part of the year. I wrote: One Last Thought on the Trade Deficit "A falling dollar will not be enough to cure the trade deficit. It will also take a rising savings rate from the consumer. What will bring that about? When the next recession comes in 2006 or 2007, the stock market will drop. Average drops during a recession are 43%. The Baby Boomer generation will realize that the stock market is not going to bail out their retirement hopes. They will stop spending and start saving with a vengeance. Problem solved, only it creates more problems. The world will not like it when the American consumer retrenches. "Since the bond market usually anticipates the actual recession, which means that long term bond rates will fall, we should see an inverted yield curve prior to a recession. Major caveat: with Fed manipulation and foreign central bank buying, we are in new territory. The old rules may no longer apply, or be applied differently. Pay attention, gentle reader. This is one we will watch closely. "As far as the end game, the short version is that once the recession starts, the Fed moves aggressively to stimulate the economy, brings back inflation and we get high rates and inflation. Over time, we end up in stagflation. Of course, we will hit the reset button, work our way through that and start the next big bull move. But all that is in our future. For 2005, we can enjoy the see-saw, and hope our partners don't jump off." Let me note that I assume that no one would act on these predictions and then go away for the next 12 months. That would be the height of foolishness, as the facts will change. And as Keynes famously noted, "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"So, where do I see risk in whether or not these predictions turn out to be true? I look to the West - across the Pacific - to Asia. One of my principles for staring into the future is that in the absence of some new contrarian fact, history should serve as a guide. Looking at history, when the Fed raises rates at the short end, the long end more or less follows, rising along with the short rates. It did not happen last year except at the shorter end of the yield curve. And this is puzzling. Short term rates rose 1.25%. The 2-year treasury rose from 1.88% to 3.1% and the 5-year note yields rose mildly from 3.28% to 3.6%. But the ten year note behaved oddly. It started the year at 4.30% and ended the year flat at 4.28%, but rose to 4.80% by June 11, about the time the Fed started raising rates. It then proceeded to drop over 50 basis points from that point, while (again) short term rtes rose 1.25%. The 30 year (or longest dated bonds) dropped 0.25%. The usual reason given is that while foreign private investors in general have shunned US investments, foreign central banks (read Asia, especially Japan) are buying our treasuries in massive amounts. History and other factors suggest to me that long term rates should rise as the Fed raises rates. I still believe so, but here is the chink in my forecasting armor. Broken Relationships Let's start with this note from the January 14 essay by Stephen Roach, (Chief Economist of Morgan Stanley). This is a partial quote. (You can read it in its entirety here.) "...The diminished sensitivity of the US economy to currency fluctuations has been increasingly evident over the past 15 years. Normally, a weakening currency results in a narrowing of a nation's current account deficit and a pick-up in inflation. That's pretty much what happened in the 1970s and especially in the late 1980s in the aftermath of the dollar's sharp downward adjustment during most of that latter period. But then it all seemed to change in the 1990s. The dollar's decline in the first half of that decade was accompanied by a shift in the current account from surplus back to deficit. And inflation barely budged. A similar outcome has been evident in the past three years -- a 16% decline in the broad dollar index (in real terms) accompanied by an ever-widening current- account deficit and persistently low inflation. "It's not altogether clear why this relationship has broken down. My suspicion is that globalization is the main culprit. (emphasis mine -JM) The globalization of supply chains biases import content to the upside for the high-cost developed world; it also forces the advanced economies to abdicate price setting at the margin to low-cost producers in the developing world. The result is a sharply diminished industrial base in countries like the United States. Manufacturing employment currently stands at only about 13% of America's private nonfarm workforce -- down sharply from the nearly 23% share that prevailed in the mid- 1980s, the last time the dollar entered a serious correction. Moreover, value- added in the US manufacturing sector fell to only about 14% in 1993 -- down from 20% in 1985. The sharply diminished size of America's industrial base makes it exceedingly difficult for the US to turn dollar depreciation into an advantage and trade its way out of a severe current-account problem through enhanced export growth and import substitution. "Nevertheless, the global rebalancing construct that I endorse still assigns an important role to a realignment of major foreign exchange rates. In my view, a lopsided world economy needs a shift in relative prices in order to establish a new and more balanced equilibrium. Currencies are nothing more than relative prices, essentially comparing the fundamentals of one economy versus another. With the dollar the dominant relative price in the world today, a depreciation of the greenback is necessary for global rebalancing. And, based on current account adjustments of the past, there's good reason to believe that the broad dollar index has a good deal more to go on the downside. However, due to America's reduced currency elasticities [the relationship he spoke of earlier - JM], a weaker dollar no longer appears to be a sufficient condition to complete the global rebalancing process. "If a weaker dollar can't do the trick, what can? The answer, in my view, is real interest rates -- the price adjustment that could well qualify as the sufficient condition for America's role in global rebalancing. The only way America can ever get a handle on its trade and current account conundrum is on the import side of the equation. After all, imports are currently 52% larger than exports (in real terms), making it almost mathematically impossible for the US to export its way out of its trade deficit. "Given the asset-dependent character of US domestic demand growth, the interest rate connection becomes all the more critical as an instrument of rebalancing. Higher real interest rates will not only curtail the pace of asset appreciation but will also raise the cost of debt service -- thereby exerting twin pressures on the asset-driven portion of domestic demand. Needless to say, the saving- short, overly-indebted, and asset-dependent American consumer should feel the impacts of such an adjustment most acutely. But homebuilding will also be hit, as will business capital spending to a more limited extent. "So far, interest rates haven't budged nearly enough to spark a meaningful rebalancing of a lopsided world. I suspect that the Federal Reserve is about to lead the way in changing that...." What Roach did not say (and perhaps does not mean) is that such events - homebuilding down, increased cost of debt service, flat or dropping home values - are likely to produce a recession. As I noted last week and again above, I think it will take a rising savings rate from the American consumer to really dent the trade deficit. I do not think that happens until Baby Boomers and those in their 40's see a serious stock market decline coupled with a decline in housing values. They then realize they will not be able to rely solely upon growth in their 401k stock portfolios and double digit growth in home values to get them to retirement nirvana. It is going to require savings and more savings. Of course, the world and especially Asia will not like that. It will subject them to a recession as well, or at least a glut of capacity. As an aside, let me pose an odd question. I think the dollar will weaken, as does Roach, and think it is necessary. But I don't run an Asian central bank. What if we do see a global slowdown as a result of the US consumer retrenching? Would it be so far out of character for some Asian nations to work to lower their currencies against a weak dollar? Could we see a recession and a rising dollar? When there is nobody in the central bank school yard, it is not altogether certain that the "kids" will play nice in the sandbox. Just a thought. Party On, America! Before we get to the real conundrum, let's jump to another essay released today by Paul McCulley of PIMCO. I think it is one of his more insightful ones. I highly suggest you read it. Jumping to the middle: "...Which brings us to Macroeconomics 104, where we learn that private foreign net investment in America is putatively a good thing, while a large share of foreign official investment flows in America's capital surplus is ostensibly a bad thing. Why? "Foreign private investors in America are theoretically profit-maximizers and are coming to America to make profits, which is a sign that investment in America must be more profitable than in other places. "In contrast, foreign official investors in America are not profit maximizers, and are lending America money as an act of mercantilist self interest, so as to keep their own currencies undervalued, thereby giving their exporters an "unfair" advantage against American producers. "Accordingly, we also learn that the greater the official share of America's capital account surplus, the more unsustainable it is, and therefore, the more unsustainable America's current account (or trade) deficit is. Why? "Since foreign official investors are not profit maximizers, there is no assurance they will continue to lend America dollars if and when their non- profit motives change, generating a disorderly decline in the dollar and dollar- denominated asset prices and, therefore, a dark winter for the American economy. "Now, finally, we have the theoretical prerequisites to register for the Senior Seminar, in which we try to apply what we have learned to the real world. And the first thing we learn is that the real world is a lot messier than the textbook world! "In present circumstances, the Fed's dilemma is either to: (1) downgrade, if not reject, its mandate to foster full employment in America, or (2) pursue that mandate with the virtual certainty of an ever-larger U.S. current account deficit, exposing America to the risk that foreign official investors suddenly decide, for their own non-profit maximizing (political?) reasons, to let a plunging dollar plunge America into a recession (depression?). "Which, of course, would result in the antithesis of the Fed's mandate to foster full employment in America. "So far, the Fed has chosen to honor its duty to pursue full employment in America, underwriting the risk - repeat, risk! - that foreign official financing of America's current account deficit becomes less agreeable. I firmly - very firmly! - believe the Fed has made the right choice, even as I respect others that feel differently. "I do not view foreign official investors in America as either strangers or acting out of kindness, but rather people we know who are acting in their own national interest: doing the only thing they can do to support their job creation, unless and until they discover the joys of more robust domestic demand growth. "In contrast, I've long worried - much more than most! - about a different risk arising from current global circumstances, in which America must party in order for the world's party staff to find employment: the risk of asset price bubbles, which ineluctably become asset price busts. "Indeed, I've long believed that asset price bubbles are not just a risk, but also a virtual certainty stemming from current global circumstances." He then goes on to note what virtually every Fed watcher has written about since the release of the December 14 Federal meeting (I commented on it last week): various members of the Fed are clearly worried about a number of things. Lack of savings, lack of foreign consumption, potential inflation, trade deficits, US government deficits and so on. But let me again quote the real eye-opener from the minutes: "Some participants believed that the prolonged period of policy accommodation had generated a significant degree of liquidity that might be contributing to signs of potentially excessive risk-taking in financial markets evidenced by quite narrow credit spreads, a pickup in initial public offerings, an upturn in mergers and acquisition activity, and anecdotal reports that speculative demands were becoming apparent in the markets for single-family homes and condominiums." In the past week or so, I count no less than three Fed governors in major speeches who have said that there is no commitment by the Fed to only raise rates at a measured pace of 25 basis points. Coincidence? After reading those minutes, I would highly doubt it. You think there wasn't some talk at the bar late at night during the meeting? Three Fed governors on their own decided to talk about the risks to a "measured pace" of rate increases within one week of each other? At least a few parties felt the need to give the markets a heads up. Couple that with Alan Greenspan's warning last November (after the election) in Frankfurt: "Rising interest rates have been advertised for so long and in so many places that anyone who has not appropriately hedged this position by now obviously is desirous of losing money." I think it is pretty clear. Not only does the Fed intend to keep raising rates, but they are hinting at the possibility of a faster rate of increase than 25 basis points per meeting. Going back to McCulley for a few more thoughts (as he says it much more clearly than I). Noting he hoped he was wrong in his assessment: "But hope is a poor excuse for an insurance policy. And when central bankers start musing publicly about asset price inflation (risk premium deflation), asset managers need insurance! "And in the present circumstances, that means getting prepared for an increase in volatility in financial asset prices, both stocks and bonds (and maybe, currencies, too). "Indeed, the most benign interpretation of the FOMC's intent in mentioning the possibility of 'excess risk taking' is that the FOMC - read, Chairman Greenspan - wants to interject some fear into the financial markets." OK, we have set the stage. Now let's see how our characters act out the play. Let's speculate that the Fed raise rates by a buck and half (1.5%) over the next 6-8 months. If long term rates rise along with the process, even if somewhat slower, then my forecast (for this year) is largely intact. But what if Hoisington and Hunt are right? What if long rates stay flat or even drop? Then we get fairly close to an inverted yield curve. A small bump in the economy, some softness here and there, and voila! We watch as the curve inverts for 90 days. And then everyone but Blue Chip Economists note that a recession is likely within 9-12 months. The Problem of the End Game McCulley has put his finger on it. It is the problem of the endgame I have been writing about for three years. The Fed can either let the asset bubble (housing, carry trade, etc.) continue and it will eventually go the way of all bubbles (with much weeping and wailing), or they can begin to decrease liquidity and hope for a soft landing. They have already started the process. Interest rates are rising and they are hinting at an even faster pace. The adjusted monetary base has been flat for five months. Absolutely no growth. That is not the stuff of inflation. Yet the risk is that the process of trying to let the air our of a bubble is not that easy to control. They have been successful with only one soft landing in the last 40 years in the mid-90's, although the recession of 2001 was quite mild considered we had come off a huge asset bubble in stocks. Raising rates will put downward pressure on housing, certainly will not help corporate profits and will make the cost of debt service higher. It is a game of chicken with the economy. If you allow inflation and an asset bubble, you make the recession which will inevitable follow much worse. But can you keep from causing a recession by deflating the asset bubble in the meantime? There is much hand-wringing in certain circles about the US depending upon the kindness of strangers - that we are dependent upon them financing our debauched spending spree. By buying our bonds (those inscrutable Asians), they keep our rates lower than they would otherwise be. What if they decided to stop buying our bonds? The opposite is just as big a problem, though. What if they continue to buy our bonds and long rates do not rise, thwarting Fed policy and we see a continuation of the asset bubbles the Fed (and any thinking observer) worries about? If the yield curve flattens, that is certainly not good for many financial institutions and their profits, which I should note makes up a large percentage of the S&P 500. And that's my worry. That is what could kill my rather optimistic forecast for 2005. The Fed raises rates at a more than measured pace and long rates do not rise gently along with them. That will surely soften the economy by the end of the year. Rather than pushing the end game out for another year or two, we start looking down the considerable maw of the recession dragon. Of course, I doubt whether we can actually get a soft landing, given the extent of the imbalances. One way or another, we end up in recession. But we do not want one as a result of an asset bubble breaking. The Fed must pick which poison we risk while trying to avoid having to take the medicine. How we get an increased US savings rate (which is required to balance or at least mitigate the trade deficit) without a recession is beyond me. But you can bet the Fed will try. But that doesn't mean I don't root for the home team. I hope they confound me! I hope I am being overwrought and way too bearish. A soft landing - something like 93-94 - sounds quite nice. It is somewhat analogous to my Texas Rangers, as unbalanced a ball team as there is. We simply have no pitching. It is not realistic to think that we will see a World Series at the Ballpark this fall. I will still root for them, but I don't bet on them. But getting into the play-offs - a soft landing - would be nice. China, California and a Few Details My business partner from England, Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners, comes to Texas next week. I will introduce Niels to real steaks, cheap currency and Texas hospitality. Then we are off to La Jolla to meet with my US partners, Altegris Investments and then off with them to a long weekend planning session. I will write next week's letter a little earlier in the week, as I will not have time next Friday. I have been gathering data for a letter on China for sometime, and I think you will find it interesting. At least it will be a nice departure from today's rather gloomy topic. Next week promises to be a time with good friends, good food and a few visits to Jon Sundt's (the president of Altegris) great wine cellar. I do so appreciate a man who put up a wine 20 years ago just to break a few bottles out for my visit. Your 'thinking cabernet and prime' analyst, John Mauldin Copyright ©2005 John Mauldin. All Rights Reserved. John Mauldin is president of Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor. All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment counselors before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. John Mauldin and/or the staff at Thoughts from the Frontline may or may not have investments in any funds cited above. Mauldin can be reached at 800-829-7273. This information
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