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Change is not comfortable, even change for the better. It's why so many people spend so many years of their lives in jobs they loathe, relationships that leave them lonely and settling for the circumstance that pull them down.
Of course, sometimes change can be exciting. Vacationing somewhere new. Moving state, or across the world. I would know. I've done it many times, all while juggling kids and careers. Needless to say, I'm well versed in both the upside and downside of change.
So I know that even when it's a change you want to make, it still brings a level of anxiety for no other reason than you're stepping onto new unfamiliar ground. Something we humans are wired to avoid.
Table of Contents
Why do we avoid change?
It's in our psychological DNA to seek certainty and preserve the familiar. It reassures us of who we are; of where we belong. It's also far less emotionally taxing (at least in the short term). Yet over the course of our lives, unless we are willing to embrace the unfamiliar and to give up the emotional comfort it brings, we cannot grow, we cannot learn, we cannot fulfill the aspirations that excite us or the potential within us.
It's why at the heart of any meaningful change is the courageous decision to risk failing, falling short and making mistakes as we move along. So yes change requires breaking ranks with our comfort zone and taking a bet on a future we cannot guarantee. But then again, what worthwhile endeavor does?
Below are six strategies to help you make the changes required to create the future you want to live; to live the rest of your life by design, not by default.
1. Clarify what's at stake
Why would you willingly choose to do something that required effort, caused disruption and invited uncertainty into your life? You wouldn't… unless of course, you are clear about why you must.
So before you start out, connect to your deepest values and get crystal clear about why making a change is so important to you. What's at stake here that will compel you out of your comfort zone and into the land of all things new and enable you to dig deep when the going gets tough? You have to be super clear about this because, as one medical study found, even when heart doctors told their at-risk patients they would die if they didn't change their lifestyle, only one in seven did.
So don't make this just an intellectual exercise, make it an emotional one.
Write down what lays at stake on a piece of paper. Think about your kids, your partner and the impact on those you love most if you don't commit to change. According to a study by Stanford, writing down what's at stake can improve the probability of you accomplishing your goal by over 70%. It's also something for you to return back to it to remind yourself why you made the change in the first place. (This is likely!)
2. Step into the shoes of your 'your future self'
Studies of the brain show that imagining ourselves in a future state, including connecting with the emotions we want to feel, can help build motivation for the short term trade-offs we have to make to achieve it. If the change you were making was going to land you the ultimate outcome, and you could step into your ultimate vision of success, what would it look like and how would you feel?
Most of us aren't very good at stepping into the shoes of our 'future self' but it can be a powerful double edged-exercise – both to imagine how you want to feel if you make a change, but also how you don't want to feel if you don't!
3. Get real about the cost of inaction
Research by Professor Phillip Bobbitt from the University of Texas found that most people are pretty lousy at assessing the cost of inaction. We have a tendency to discount or ignore the opportunity inaction while also dwelling more on what we have to give up than on what we could gain. But delaying change can exact an increasing toll on our wealth, health, and happiness.
As I wrote in my new book You've Got This! The Life Changing Power of Trusting Yourself, because life is the way it is, it cannot stay the way it is. Delaying making a change doesn't make it easier despite how much we may try to convince ourselves otherwise.
If something isn't working well right now, it's not going to get any better on its own. Trying to convince yourself is just another way to avoid the discomfort that change requires. In fact, putting off making changes only prolongs the pain and makes it that much more difficult when you're finally forced to confront the cost of sticking to the status quo.
4. Don't go it alone
When you have people around you who believe in your ability to successfully make a change it will make it so much easier to do. Recruit a cheer squad among your family and friends, find someone to hold you accountable, hire a trainer, join a group, or enlist a friend to check in with regularly who'll hold you accountable.
Likewise, if there are people you know who'll discourage or distract you, avoid them or set some boundaries (at least in the short term). Often such people are threatened by your desire for change and fear being left behind. Whatever you do, never underestimate the impact of those around you to support or sabotage your efforts to change.
5. Take daily actions to get uplift
The bigger the change we want to make the more overwhelmed we can feel. Where to begin? How to begin? Overwhelm can quickly kick in as you dwell on the size of the gap between where you are and where you want to be. As Martin Luther King once wrote, "You don't have to see the whole staircase, just the next step." So focus on that… the step you need to take today and over the next few days, not next month or next year. You'll figure that out then. I promise.
A plane can use up to 70% of its fuel just getting airborne. Likewise, as you start out toward making a change it takes a disproportionate amount of energy to build the momentum required for the permanent change (remember, you're working against the universal law of least resistance!).
Your fear will always be working in the background, offering up all array of rationalizations and justifications for why you should throw in the towel and retreat to the familiar. It's why so many do.
However every time you take a new action amid your misgivings and despite your discomfort, you are subconsciously reaffirming your commitment to the future you want to create, even if that action may appear outwardly insignificant. So make it a practice to do one thing, however small, every single day.
6. Focus on progress and go gently on your 'miss-steps'
If it were easy to change those aspects of our lives that aren't serving our highest good, more people would. Part of what creates our resistance is our fear of getting it wrong as we move along – falling short and making rookie mistakes.
So instead of beating up on yourself when you make a 'miss-step', fall back into 'default' patterns or encounter setbacks, embrace it as part and parcel of the process toward meaningful change. Setting 'learning goals' or 'progress goals' can be useful to sustain persistence, practice and patience. Likewise, rather than focus on where you are relative to your ideal end outcome, step back to simply observe yourself as a student of change who is in the process of learning a new skill or developing a new habit.
Utilize self-compassion
Self-criticism is a well-worn habit for many. Yet studies show that self-compassion is a far stronger predictor for learning, motivation and performance over the long run. So if you've slipped up, redirect the energy you would have spent in self-criticism to make the necessary adjustments and minimize the chance of repeating it (perhaps avoiding certain trigger situations or people in the short-term). Then reconnect to the reason that set you on this course to begin with. Remind yourself what's at stake here. You may want to pull out that piece of paper (#1) to remind yourself why the path toward change is worth your effort. Because as I'm sure your future self would tell you, it is.
The Author
Margie Warrell is an international speaker and bestselling author. Her latest book, You've Got This! The Life-Changing Power of Trusting Yourself is focused on helping people thrive amid life's challenges and make the changes they've been putting off. Check it out at www.margiewarrell.com or Amazon
See more Career Tips and Advice for People Over 50


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Who will enforce mask mandates, and how?
TAMPA, Fla. - Before the Hillsborough County Emergency Policy Group passed an order mandating face coverings in most public, indoor places, they discussed, at length, who would enforce the new rules and how.
Ultimately, the EPG ruled that the job of enforcement will fall on business operators. While individuals not wearing masks when required won't face citations, a business that allows the behavior could be charged.
EPG members voted 5-3 on Monday to require the wearing of face coverings, with certain exceptions, inside businesses that are open to the public and where employees and customers aren't able to maintain social distancing. The order is effective immediately, with the exception of the enforcement provisions which go into effect at 5 p.m. on Wednesday, June 24.
The city of Tampa enacted its own executive order last Friday. As of Monday, the city reports that no citations have been issued, as they work to educate.
"We've had less than a dozen calls to law enforcement about this so it is not overwhelming law enforcement here in the city of Tampa," said Tampa Mayor Jane Castor.
Hillsborough County Sheriff Chad Chronister argued that enforcement of a county order ought to be in the hands of rapid response teams that go into ZIP codes with the greatest need, educating, providing PPE supplies and encouraging adherence.
RELATED: Mayor adds St. Petersburg to list of cities requiring masks in public, indoor spaces
"If we make facial coverings a law, it will overburden and place local law enforcement in a compromising position to enforce," Chronister said. "Has anyone considered the secondary effects for our state attorney, public defender and judiciary who will have to prosecute, defend and dispose of these cases?"
Temple Terrace Mayor Andy Ross agreed that law enforcement should not be tasked with compliance. "I can not charge our police with becoming the mask police," Ross said.
He suggested keeping officers largely out of it and, instead, tasking for-profit "business operators" with enforcement.
RELATED: Hillsborough EPG makes masks mandatory at all businesses in the county
"If someone calls the police and complains about someone shopping in aisle eight without a mask, the police response is, 'you need to go talk to the store manager'," Ross said.
While individuals not wearing masks indoors would not be punished, business operators not enforcing the order could face second-degree misdemeanors.
"I don't want to put business owners, the thousands of business owners in our county, in that situation where they may have to turn away business and risk losing revenue," said Hillsborough School Board Chairwoman Melissa Snively. "I think it puts undue strain on business owners that have already been through undue strain through this pandemic."
"You're going to have one or two businesses out there that don't give a damn. They're going to be the ones that get the citation," countered Hillsborough County Commission Chairman Les Miller.
After the motion passed, word spread to the future "mask enforcers" -- the businesses.
"Do you turn away a potentially loyal customer over the issue or do you let them shop?" wondered Joseph Zamrin, partner at Redneck Wine Company in Tampa.
That's a question his and other businesses had to consider prior to the county order. "It's a difficult situation for the business," Zamrin.
Now, with their own compliance on the line, Zamrin believes customers are more likely to mask up, knowing it helps the business out.
"It might make it easier to force compliance because we could post a note saying the county is saying they are going to impact our business if you don't help us," Zamrin said.
Business operators found in violation of the order could face up to 60 days in jail and a $500 fine. This order does not apply to religious services, non-profit organizations, private clubs and government agencies.

subset: commoncrawl


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Patrick Vieira has been sacked by Ligue 1 side Nice following a five-match losing run.
The 44-year-old had been in charge at the Allianz Riviera since June 2018, his second head coach job following two seasons in MLS with New York City FC.
He was due to be out of contract at the end of the campaign but Nice have taken the decision to terminate the former Arsenal star's deal early.
The decision was made following Thursday's 3-2 loss to Bayer Leverkusen, which was overshadowed by protests before kick-off with supporters demanding Vieira step aside.
That defeat ensures Nice can no longer advance to the Europa League knockouts and they are 11th in Ligue 1 after going more than a month without picking up a point.
Nice confirmed the news on their official website on Friday and announced Adrian Ursea will step up from his previous role as assistant boss to take temporary charge of the first team.
#OGCNice part ways with Patrick Vieira.
— OGC Nice (@ogcnice_eng) December 4, 2020
https://t.co/1AlfRkru7B pic.twitter.com/8OqvRSe5a2
"In a meeting conducted after last night's match, the Nice board informed Patrick Vieira of their decision to end their collaboration," Nice said in a statement.
"The Rouge et Noir has decided to appoint Adrian Ursea as head coach of the club's professional first team, as of today."
Vieira guided Nice to seventh place in his first season at the helm and improved on that by finishing fifth in last term's curtailed campaign on a points-per-game basis.
"Patrick put all his heart and professionalism into his service for OGC Nice over the last two and a half years of their collaboration," the statement added.
"The Nice board sincerely thanks the former France international for his commitment and dedication to the development of the club and wishes him every future success in his coaching career."
First up for Ursea, who has also worked alongside Lucien Favre in the Nice dugout, is a league trip to Reims on Sunday.


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In this episode, host Daniel Raimi talks with Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist and director of climate and energy at the Breakthrough Institute, a think tank that studies technological solutions to environmental challenges. An expert on climate modeling, Hausfather outlines how representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are used to predict future emissions scenarios, and he explains why one frequently cited RCP—which estimates a "business-as-usual" scenario and largely assumes that coal use will increase—is misleading and should not be used as a metric to estimate temperature increases. Reflecting on the progress the world has made in transitioning away from coal, Hausfather nevertheless emphasizes how ambitious mitigation strategies are essential for addressing our global climate challenges.
Listen to the Podcast
Notable Quotes
- Shifting carbon emissions sources: "What's interesting, particularly in the last few years, is that global coal use is no longer the biggest driver of increasing emissions. These days, it's actually natural gas that's adding more CO2 emissions than anything else." (4:38)
- Problems with conventional "business-as-usual" metrics: "In a world where global coal use peaked in 2013, where clean energy prices are falling, where 2019 saw a record decline in coal use, the idea that we're going to turn around, re-embrace coal in a huge way, and have it drive pretty much all the growth and global energy use of the next century is very unlikely … But a lot of climate science papers in the intervening years have referred to [this scenario] as 'business-as-usual.' We're making the argument that we really need to stop doing that." (12:18)
- Next steps to hit climate targets: "[Our current climate trajectory] is a reason for hope: we are making progress, we have falling clean energy prices, we have clean renewables … The trends are moving in the right direction, but not nearly fast enough to get to where we need to in terms of these climate targets." (18:15)
Top of the Stack
- The End of Nature by Bill McKibben
- "Explainer: Nine 'tipping points' that could be triggered by climate change" by Robert McSweeney
- The Broken Earth trilogy by N.K. Jemisin
- "Endless Night at -50 Degrees: A Look at Life on an Icebreaker" by Henry Fountain
- "Wild storms and shifting ice: Two explorers talk about Arctic life" by Henry Fountain and Esther Horvath
The Full Transcript
Daniel Raimi: Hello and welcome to Resources Radio, a weekly podcast from Resources for the Future. I'm your host Daniel Raimi. This week we talked with Dr. Zeke Hausfather, director of climate and energy at the Breakthrough Institute. I'll ask Zeke about the past, present, and future of global greenhouse gas emissions. We'll talk in detail about the emissions trajectory that the world is currently on, and how that pathway looks different from some of the worst case scenarios that researchers have used in the past. We'll also talk about the crucial uncertainties that still remain when it comes to estimating future global warming under any given emissions pathway. Stay with us. Okay, Zeke Hausfather from the Breakthrough Institute, thank you so much for joining us today on Resources Radio.
Zeke Hausfather: It is great to be here.
Daniel Raimi: So Zeke, we're going to talk today about recent trends in greenhouse gas emissions, as well as looking towards the future about greenhouse gas emissions, and trying to get a sense of what pathway we might be on, and what pathways we might not be on. But before we do that, we always like to ask our guests how they got interested in working on environmental topics. So what brought you into this field?
Zeke Hausfather: So it's a long and twisting path on how I ended up doing climate science and energy system modeling. I think the most formative thing for me was probably as a freshman in college, back in 2001, I read Bill McKibben's The End of Nature, which was the first time I had really become aware of the climate issue and what it meant, and so that book was really formative to me. I spent a while as a college student being a climate activist, ended up later on going to work in the clean tech world as a data scientist, co-founded a company called Efficiency 2.0 that competed with Opower in the pay-for-based efficiency space. For many years, I did climate science as a hobby that grew out of my data science work, particularly around observational temperature records, reconstructing global temperatures, worked with the Berkeley Earth Group, for example, and then eventually, got a little bored of energy efficiency, and decided that my hobby was a lot more interesting than my career, went back, got a PhD, and now I do climate science and energy modeling as a full time gig.
Daniel Raimi: That's awesome. And of course, no offense to our energy efficiency enthusiasts out there, we love you too.
Zeke Hausfather: No, energy efficiency is hugely important, but 10 years was a good amount of time to spend on it.
Daniel Raimi: Great. Okay, so as I mentioned, we're going to talk about future greenhouse gas emissions today, and try to understand what trajectory the world might be on, and what that means for global temperatures. But first, I think it'll be useful to start just with a little bit of history. So, can you give us a short overview of recent trends in global greenhouse gas emissions? And this'll probably be broadly familiar to many of our listeners, but can you just give us a sense of how fast greenhouse gas emissions have risen in recent years and how that might compare to previous decades that we've seen?
Zeke Hausfather: Sure. So the recent years, the last two decades are very distinct. Back in the year 2000, China had roughly half the emissions as the US, global emissions had been growing modestly since 1990, but suddenly, right around 2001-2002, there was a turning point where China started adding an immense amount of coal. Their economy is growing very rapidly, they're building a new coal plant almost every day, and their emissions over the course of just six years doubled. They went from about three and a half gigatonnes of CO2, to about seven gigatonnes of CO2. At the same time, there was also a rapid increase in the rest of the world's emissions, driven largely by coal. The period from 2000-2010 was all about a global build-out of coal, particularly in the developing world.
Since 2010 however, and particularly since about 2012-2013, the picture's changed a little bit. Global coal use peaked around 2012-2013, and is still lower than it was back then. Global emissions were pretty flat from 2013 through 2016 or so, before ticking up in 2017 and 2018. And the picture's really changed, in terms of what the drivers of increasing emissions are. 2019, the jury's still out on what the final number is going to be, but it looks like most estimates are either of a fairly flat or modest increase in emissions globally, and that's almost entirely driven by increases in Chinese emissions. The rest of the world didn't change much at all between 2018 and 2019.
And what's interesting, particularly in the last few years, is that global coal use is no longer the biggest driver of increasing emissions. These days, it's actually natural gas that's adding more CO2 emissions than anything else. That, in some ways, is a better thing than if the emissions were still coming from coal because a lot of the natural gas that's being added is either replacing coal, or meeting new demand, but that new demand would have likely been met by coal in a world where we didn't have as much natural gas. The renewables are also a big part of that picture, and they were the second biggest addition of energy last year, after natural gas globally. But gas is the biggest driver of emission increases in recent years.
Daniel Raimi: And oil too has been pretty substantial, right? We are seeing growth of oil demand in the neighborhood of one million barrels to two million barrels per day, over the last few years. So, that's still a pretty substantial chunk of growth.
Zeke Hausfather: Oil is definitely consistently increasing over time, though it's only been about half of the additional CO2 that the gas has added, for the last three years at least.
Daniel Raimi: Right, great. Okay, thank you, that's super useful context. So with that brief snapshot of where we are, and where we have been over the last couple of decades, we're going to turn to the future. So, before we talk about future pathways for emissions, let's define at least one term, which is Representative Concentration Pathway, or RCP. When we think about future emissions trajectories, people often refer to RCPs. So, can you give us a brief overview of what RCPs are, including when and why they were originally developed?
Zeke Hausfather: Sure. So RCP stands for Representative Concentration Pathway, and they were developed in the lead up to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, which came out in 2013. And the interesting story behind the RCP is that, there was a previous energy modeling effort called the SRES scenarios, which stands for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios, it's an odd name for a set of scenarios, but so it goes. And the SRES scenarios were interesting in that, they modeled four different socioeconomic futures, A1, A2, B1, B2, each of which had different GDP, a different set of global population growth, and they presented a whole bunch of different scenarios that were all baseline scenarios in our SRES. And by baseline I mean, essentially how the world could evolve if there were no additional climate policy beyond what was in place at the time the scenarios were created.
And so it looked at a whole bunch of different possible futures that ranged from as low as about three degrees warming, to as high as five degrees warming by 2100. And so, that set of scenarios was originally created around the year 2000, so it was getting pretty old by the time the 2013 IPCC report was coming out. And so, there's a big desire to create a new set of emission scenarios, and socioeconomic scenarios, to model what might happen in the future. The problem was that climate modelers needed these scenarios, at least two or three years ahead of time, in order to have time to run the supercomputer models to produce the climate simulations needed for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. And the energy system modelers just didn't have enough time to do a full set of new socioeconomic futures.
And so as a stop-gap measure, they created these four representative concentration pathways that were broadly four levels, roughly consistent with some of the levels in the previous SRES scenarios, as well as some more aggressive mitigation scenarios. And the idea was, these four representative concentration pathways ended up far enough apart in 2100, that you get climate model outputs. They're very distinct, that was one of the main impetuses behind it. And so, what's interesting though is unlike the SRES scenarios where they were all potential no policy baselines, the RCPs only had one scenario that was created by an integrated assessment model that didn't have a carbon price in it. And that's RCP 8.5. Both RCP 6 and RCP 4.5 work consistent with the range of no policy based on some literature, but the actual model used to generate them did have a carbon price.
It's possible both to have a modest mitigation scenario, and an optimistic baseline scenario that overlap each other. Right? And so what we ended up with the RCPs was, this case where only one of the scenarios was generated as truly a baseline scenario, but that scenario, RCP 8.5, was not particularly representative of the full range of baselines in literature. It was roughly the 90th percentile of baselines when it was created. So if all of the integrated assessment modeling runs that people had done looking at potential outcomes in the absence of climate policy, RCP 8.5 was around the 90th percentile of those, in terms of emissions. And it's, as we can talk about in a bit, it's become substantially less likely since then. What's happened in recent years is the replacement for the old SRES scenarios has finally been completed.
It's called the SSPs, or the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. They had originally planned for it to be completed before the 2013 IPCC report, to merge the RCPs back into this more consistent socioeconomic modeling framework, that ended up not happening. It took another four years longer than they thought, or five years. But we finally have a new set of scenarios called the SSPs that has consistent socioeconomics across all the models that looks at a whole wide range of baseline no-policy outcomes, and gives us a much better infrastructure of scenarios to work with going forward.
Daniel Raimi: Right. Great. Got it. So the RCPs that are most commonly used today, there are four of them, there's RCP 2.6, 4.0, 6.0, and then 8.5. Is it 6.0 or 6.5? I can never remember.
Zeke Hausfather: It's 4.5 and 6.0 but...
Daniel Raimi: Okay, great. And just in case you've heard sirens in the background there while Zeke was speaking, the RCP police are after you, so watch out.
Zeke Hausfather: It's an occupational hazard of being in downtown Oakland.
Daniel Raimi: Yeah, right. So let's talk now about one particular RCP that has received a lot of attention, which you mentioned just a moment ago, and which you write about with Glen Peters in a recent article in the journal, Nature, where you essentially make the case that RCP 8.5 appears extremely unlikely, far more unlikely than it was, as you suggested, when it was initially developed. Can you explain briefly why? What about RCP 8.5 makes it so unlikely?
Zeke Hausfather: Sure. And to give an important caveat, what we're really arguing in this Nature piece is that the emission scenario underlying RCP 8.5 is unlikely. There are multiple different ways to get to that radiative forcing, and I'll get into that in a little bit, but to back up and discuss our Nature piece, essentially as I mentioned, RCP 8.5 was originally generated using roughly the 90th percentile of no-policy emission scenarios in the literature. And in practice, what that means is, it was generated using a scenario where global coal use expands dramatically by the end of the century. So in RCP 8.5 emissions scenario, the world is using roughly five times more coal by 2100 than it's using today. Now, when this scenario was originally created in the mid 2000s or late 2000s, that didn't seem like that crazy of an assumption, right? The world had been adding coal at an accelerating rate, Chinese emissions had doubled in the course of five years.
And so, projecting that increase out to the future with coal meeting the majority of energy demands, was not necessarily the most realistic assumption, but it was a reasonable assumption to make. Today, in a world where global coal use peaked in 2013, where clean energy prices are falling, where 2019 saw a record declining global coal use, the idea that we're going to turn around, re-embrace coal in a huge way, and have it drive pretty much all the growth and global energy use of the next century is very unlikely. And so, what we're pointing out in this Nature piece is that, that scenario, we need to stop referring to it as business-as-usual, or as the most likely outcome of current policies. We can't necessarily preclude the possibility that the world will decide to burn all the remaining coal we have, but it's much more of a worst case scenario now than a likely outcome.
And part of the problem, as we point out in this Nature comment, is that the fact that RCP 8.5 was never intended to be business-as-usual, was not communicated very well to the larger climate science community—if you read the original energy modeling papers that created these scenarios, it's pretty clear, that was the 90th percentile. But a lot of climate science papers in the intervening years have referred to it as business-as-usual. And so, we're making the argument that we really need to stop doing that. Now, the emission scenario underlying RCP 8.5 is not quite the same as the concentration scenario RCP 8.5. So when RCPs are called Representative Concentration Pathways, and they're called representative because the model that generated it is one of a number of possible ways to get to that level of radiative forcing.
So for example, if we had a world where we only increased coal 300 percent instead of 500 percent, but carbon cycle feedbacks—so carbon from melting permafrost, from the Amazon turning into a more of a savanna-like ecosystem, from changing ocean chemistry—if those carbon cycle feedbacks end up being higher than our models currently think they are, which is a real uncertainty we have, you could potentially get to that level of concentrations with a somewhat lower emissions pathway, certainly not on a current policies trajectory. It would be really hard to get to 8.5 watts per meter squared.
But if we had three times the current coal use by the end of the century, we can't rule that outcome out. And so, there's different ways to get to that level of forcing. Similarly, all of these RCPs are based around the end of the century, the year 2100, and it's important to emphasize that the world does not end in 2100, our models just end in 2100. And so, as long as we keep emitting CO2 and other greenhouse gases, the world will continue warming. And so even if we don't get to this RCP 8.5, five degree warming outcome by 2100, if we keep emitting at current levels, we'll probably get there before 2200, right?
Daniel Raimi: Right.
Zeke Hausfather: And if we keep increasing emissions, we'll probably get there by 2150 and so, we're not out of the woods on that front. And then finally, there are big uncertainties in climate sensitivity. So, if you look at how climate modelers turn future emissions into warming, there are three different sources of uncertainty. One is what are future emissions, right? Are they going to be low? Are they going to be high? That's something that really comes down to socioeconomics, to political decisions, that you can't really use physics-based models to predict. You can just look at a different range of possible emissions. But beyond that, there's also the carbon cycle feedbacks I mentioned earlier.
So how much additional carbon is released from things like permafrost, there's the earthworms, and then there is climate sensitivity uncertainty. So how does warming affect the behavior of clouds? How does it affect the reflectivity of the earth's surface? How does it affect the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere? And all of these things act as feedbacks that reinforce the warming you'd otherwise have, and potentially make it stronger. And so, if you look at the climate models for a given emission scenario, say a scenario where global CO2 emissions double by the end of the century, you could have anywhere between about 1.5 and 4.5 degrees warming per doubling CO2 at equilibrium. And that itself is a wide range of uncertainty.
And so that means that even though there are more modest emission scenarios, we can't rule out potential high warming outcomes. So we point out in our comment in Nature that current policies, the policies the countries have in place today, if you extend them through the end of the century, we'd be on track for probably somewhere around three degrees warming. But that's a best estimate, assuming that we know what carbon cycle feedbacks and climate sensitivity is, if you take the uncertainties from those into account, we could probably have anywhere between, 2.3 and 4.4 degrees warming under current policies by the end of the century. And so we can't necessarily rule out these very high end warming outcomes of four degrees plus even in a current policy world.
Daniel Raimi: Right. So, one way that I internalized this when I was reading your piece is that, even though we think that an emissions trajectory like RCP 8.5 is very, very unlikely, some of the warming effects that we could experience might be more in the range of what people think of as an RCP 8.5 outcome, even under a lower emissions trajectory.
Zeke Hausfather: Yeah. But at the same time, if climate sensitivity is on the high end and we were on an RCP 8.5 emissions trajectory, we'd have like seven degrees warming, right?
Daniel Raimi: Right.
Zeke Hausfather: And so that truly nightmarish outcome is no longer on the table, it's very unlikely to be on the table, which is a good thing. And as we also point out in our comments, it's a lot harder to meet Paris Agreement targets of limiting warming below two degrees, if the world is on track for warming of five degrees. The socioeconomics needed, the population growth, the level of technological progress, et cetera, that can get the world to five degrees, makes it really hard to get down to two degrees.
And so the fact that we're in a more modest baseline scenario now, or a more modest current policy scenario means that, it is a lot more possible to bend that curve down. And so that is a reason for hope, we are making progress, we have falling clean energy prices, we have clean renewables where the single largest source of new electricity had added worldwide last in 2018, which is a big change from previous years. And so the trends are moving in the right direction but not nearly fast enough to get to where we need to in terms of these climate targets.
Daniel Raimi: Right. And before we move on, there are a couple of terms that you mentioned, that I just want to pause and define for listeners who might not be as familiar with this subject matter. One of them was radiative forcing, and the other one was, you used the phrase watts per meter squared, which is in reference to the RCPs. So, can you briefly define for us radiative forcing for people who don't have a geophysical background? And then tell us what watts per meter squared means, and how it refers to the numbers in the RCPs? Basically a preview of this is that, the RCPs... The numbers that are attached to them, 2.6, 8.5, and so on, in reference to watts per meters squared. So first can you give us radiative forcing definition, and then watts per meter squared.
Zeke Hausfather: Sure. So, the RCP numbers actually are the radiative forcing in that scenario in the year 2100, and watts per meter squared is the unit in which the radiative forcing is calculated.
Daniel Raimi: Got it.
Zeke Hausfather: So radiative forcing essentially, the simple version is it's the amount of additional heat that's being trapped by the atmosphere. So if we had left CO2 at preindustrial levels, the earth would roughly be an equilibrium, the amount of energy coming in from the sun would be balanced by the amount of energy radiating back to space, and the temperature of the planet doesn't really change. But as we add more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, suddenly we have more heat coming into the system than is going out of the system. And that energy imbalance is calculated in units of watts per meter squared.
So essentially, how many watts of energy for every square meter of the planet is being added to the earth system compared to how much is radiating back to space. And so that's how we define radiative forcing. And it's a nice unit to take all of these different greenhouse gases, and aerosols, and various other factors that affect the climate and put them together into a single unit that reflects for any given period of time, how much additional heat is being trapped.
Daniel Raimi: Great. And so it does take into account all of the different greenhouse gases that could be playing a role, not just CO2?
Zeke Hausfather: Well not just greenhouse gases, it takes into account reflective aerosols, it takes into account changes in albedo, how reflective the surface of the earth is, if for example, you have less snow cover in a warming world, you have more bare ground that is absorbing more heat. So pretty much anything that affects the amount of heat that is retained in the earth system gets included in these radiative forcing estimates.
Daniel Raimi: Great. So yeah, my ignorance of climate science is being exposed once again. So, turning from the discussion of which pathway we're on, and what the equilibrium climate sensitivity might be and related issues, when you think about this from a policymaking perspective, I know your background is in climatology, but you think a lot about policy and policy decisions that have evolved over time. What are some of the major implications of both, the fact that it appears very unlikely that we're on a RCP 8.5 type emissions trajectory, and also what are the implications of the uncertainty that still remains around whatever trajectory we happen to be on?
Zeke Hausfather: So in terms of the need to mitigate climate change, this doesn't change much at all, right? The need to limit warming below two degree as codified in the Paris Agreement, never was based on having a five degree counterfactual, right? Whether the world is on track for five degrees, or four degrees, or three degrees, we still need to mitigate to try to get to as close to two degrees or below as possible. And so the steps that countries need to take in terms of mitigation don't really fundamentally change depending on the baseline, where it does affect some policy decisions is around adaptation. So, if a five degree world is much less likely, if the two meters of silverized high end estimate associated with RCP 8.5 is much less likely than it used to be, our planning for adaptation in the century changes a little bit as well.
We may want to make decisions for a worst case outcome of four degrees instead of five degrees, and all the various impacts that would entail across agriculture, and ocean rise, and heat stress, and other issues, or other impacts of climate change. So I think it's more on the adaptation side that this changes the policy calculus in the mitigation side. We're still very far from being on a pathway toward two degrees than we need to be. And so the types of actions countries need to take on mitigation don't really change.
Daniel Raimi: Yeah, that makes sense. And so you've answered all my questions that I had planned in advance when talking about these issues, but I wonder if there are any questions that I haven't asked, or any topics that you want to expand on, around this general topic area that we haven't talked about yet?
Zeke Hausfather: Sure. So I can mention briefly, one of the big uncertainties in future warming is climate sensitivity. And that's an area that we've been really hard pressed to reduce the uncertainty of. In fact, in some ways it's a little embarrassing for the climate science community because, back in 1979, Jules Charney published a big report, and in that report they estimated that if we double CO2 in the atmosphere, the world would likely warm somewhere between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees centigrade. And fast forward to 2013 and the last big IPCC report, and lo and behold, the range of expected warming for doubling CO2 is 1.5 to 4.5 degrees centigrade. Now Charney was probably a little over confident in his assessment back in 79, and we certainly have a lot more evidence now that sensitivity is probably not likely less than 1.5 degrees, and not likely that much over 4.5 degrees, but it's still a really tough thing to narrow the estimates of.
And there's been a lot of talk recently because, the latest generation of climate models, the ones that are currently in the works for the upcoming IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, which will be released in 2021. A number of those models show very high climate sensitivity values, essentially saying that if we double CO2, the earth might warm by 5 or 5.5 degrees. And if that's the case, that really is worrying, it means that it's almost impossible to limit warming to below two degrees, for example. It means that a scenario that you thought would give you three degrees warming, might give you four and a half degrees warming instead, if climate sensitivity is actually that high. But thankfully, we shouldn't over-interpret these results, only about 70 of the 30 models that have reported value so far, have very high sensitivity estimates, the rest don't. The rest are pretty much in line with the previous generation of models.
Daniel Raimi: Sorry Zeke, just one quick clarification. You said... I think you meant to say 7 of the 30, but it sounded like you said 70 of the 30, could you clarify?
Zeke Hausfather: I meant 7 of the 30, yes.
Daniel Raimi: Okay, good. Yeah, 70 of the 30 would be really... that'd be really something.
Zeke Hausfather: 7 of the 30 models that have reported so far have very high sensitivity values. We expect about a hundred models to ultimately participate in the current round of climate modeling. And so, it's a little premature to judge what's going to happen with the full 100 models based on just seven. And so, it certainly means that there are real risks of high sensitivity that we need to take into account. There are long tails in these estimates that are really hard to fully eliminate, but at the same time, we'd have other lines of evidence from the earth's distant past, from the observational temperature record, from these things called merchant constraints, where you look at how other climate variables we can observe are related to climate sensitivity and models, and all of these lines of evidence suggest that climate sensitivity is probably around three degrees per doubling, again with this range of 1.5 to 4.5 or so. And so, it's probably premature to conclude that climate sensitivity is higher than we previously thought, even though this is yet another bit of evidence that there are long tails of uncertainties that we need to take into account.
Daniel Raimi: Right. That's super interesting. That'll be really fascinating to watch over the next few months, and maybe years or two as the full results start to come in. And I'd also suggest to listeners, if they want to get a sense of some of the policy implications of the long tails that Zeke is referring to, we did an episode, I want to say about six or seven months ago, with Gernot Wagner from Harvard, where we mostly talked about his mentor, the late Dr. Marty Weitzman, who did a lot of policy work around, or I should say more theoretical work around the implications of those long tails. And then we had Bob Litterman on the show a couple of months ago, where we talked about the same thing. So it certainly ... This question of equilibrium climate sensitivity and how long are the tails, is one that people are thinking pretty hard about in the policymaking community.
So with that, I think we're going to close it out. And now Zeke, I want to ask you the same question that we ask all of our guests, which is, what have you heard, or watched, or read recently, related to the environment, or climate change, or any relevant topic that you think is really interesting, and that you'd recommend to our listeners?
And I'll just briefly start us off with a really cool news story that I read in the New York Times from a couple of weeks back now. The article was called, "Wild Storms and Shifting Ice: Two Explorers Talk About Arctic Life", and it was a really nice, visual heavy, interactive article, that I read online, that showed lots of pictures, and some videos, from these two scientists who were working up in the Arctic measuring, I think taking ice core samples to try to get a sense of paleo climate. I don't actually know what they were doing with the ice core samples, but they were definitely taking ice core samples, and then learning stuff from the ice core samples, and it was a really fun article, gave you a sense of what it might be like to actually be up at one of those stations. So how about you Zeke, what have you been listening to, and what's on the top of your reading stack?
Zeke Hausfather: Sure. So the most recent thing I read that was quite interesting was, some of my colleagues at Carbon Brief had been working for about a year on this big explainer on climate tipping points, which is an issue that's very much in the public eye at the moment. And so they just published it yesterday, and so it's a really long article on carbonbrief.org, that goes into all the different tipping points, interviews with a bunch of the top scientists in each of those fields, and tries to provide a good summary of what we know, what we don't know, where the real uncertainty is, and how sometimes the science is not quite as clear in terms of tipping points as it gets portrayed in the media. So, that was a really helpful article in looking into that.
On a slightly different note, something I read recently that touches a little on the environments, but in an indirect way is, I read a quite excellent series of books by N.K. Jemisin called, The Broken Earth Trilogy. I think all three of them won the Hugo Award, which is the first time ... That's just the biggest award in science fiction and fantasy, and which I think is the first time an author has ever had three Hugos in a row for a trilogy. And it's a really interesting look at a fictional world that's very much defined by tectonics, and geology, and exploring how that might shape societies, it was quite interesting. So if you need something that's a little bit of a break from the dry academic articles, I'd recommend The Broken Earth Series by N.K. Jemisin.
Daniel Raimi: Great. Yeah, we'll put up a link to both the Carbon Brief article, and that series that you mentioned on the show page. And I want to note that we're recording this on February 11th, it might air a couple of weeks from that time, so we'll make sure you can find the link to the Carbon Brief article because probably, it won't be a yesterday when you're listening to this episode that it would have been published. So let's close it out there and once again, I want to say thank you so much Zeke for joining us today on Resources Radio, and talking to us about RCPs, equilibrium climate sensitivity, and so many other fascinating topics. We really appreciate it.
Zeke Hausfather: No worries. It was great to be here.
Daniel Raimi: You've been listening to Resources Radio. If you have a minute, we'd really appreciate you leaving us a rating, or a comment on your podcast platform of choice. Also, feel free to send us your suggestions for future episodes. Resources Radio is a podcast from Resources for the Future. RFF is an independent nonprofit research institution in Washington, DC, our mission is to improve environmental energy and natural resource decisions, through impartial economic research and policy engagement. Learn more about us at rff.org. The views expressed on this podcast are solely those of the participants. They do not necessarily represent the views of Resources for the Future, which does not take institutional positions on public policies. Resources Radio is produced by Elizabeth Wason, with music by me, Daniel Raimi. Join us next week for another episode.


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8th Annual Walk For a Wonderful Life
Sunday, September 20, 2020
Need Help?
Call or Text the Crisis Intervention Hotline at
1-877-333-2470 or 877-565-7744.
Help is available 24 hours/day, 365 days/year. You'll be connected with a trained counselor ready to assist you with issues of suicide, depression, and personal crisis.
Like our Facebook Page!
International Survivor's of Suicide Loss Day
International Survivors of Suicide Loss Day was created in 1999 by the U.S. Senate, and every year thousands of suicide loss survivors around the world participate in Survivor Day events to share their experiences, gain insight, and comfort in the knowledge that they are not alone.
November 19, 2016
The Crane Story:
Sadako Sasaki, a Japanese girl who was 24 months old when shew as exposed to radiation from the atomic bombing of Hiroshima in WWII popularized the story of the 1,000 Cranes. She developed Lukemia at the age of 12 and spent much time in the hospital where she began folding oragami cranes with the goal of making 1,000. It is said that anyone who folds 1,000 paper cranes will be granted a wish by the Gods, sadly Sadako died before folding a thousand, but the tradition still lives on. Hopeful Hearts in Indiana County folded Cranes for our Event and each family member wrote a message and the name of their lost loved one. The Crane Symbol stands for Loyalty, Nobility, and Beauty.


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Vintage-Johnson Bros - MARIE - dinnerware Set. EUC England - 46 Pieces. No chips, no cracks, no repair. The bowls are made by Sky Blue Japan. 11 dinner plates 10.5.
9 salad plates 7 3/4 diameter. 7 berry bowls 6 diameter. 9 cups 3.5 diameter x 2.5 tall. Please view all included pictures as a part of description. Thank you for looking and please view my other listed items.The item "Vintage-Johnson Bros MARIE dinnerware Set. EUC England 40 +11 Pieces" is in sale since Friday, August 7, 2020. This item is in the category "Pottery & Glass\Pottery & China\China & Dinnerware\Johnson Brothers". The seller is "flawonid*97" and is located in Abilene, Texas. This item can be shipped to United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Denmark, Romania, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Czech republic, Finland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Estonia, Australia, Greece, Portugal, Cyprus, Slovenia, Japan, China, Sweden, South Korea, Indonesia, Taiwan, South africa, Thailand, Belgium, France, Hong Kong, Ireland, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Italy, Germany, Austria, Bahamas, Israel, Mexico, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, Saudi arabia, United arab emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Croatia, Malaysia, Chile, Colombia, Costa rica, Dominican republic, Panama, Trinidad and tobago, Guatemala, El salvador, Honduras, Jamaica, Antigua and barbuda, Aruba, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Saint kitts and nevis, Saint lucia, Montserrat, Turks and caicos islands, Barbados, Bangladesh, Bermuda, Brunei darussalam, Bolivia, Egypt, French guiana, Guernsey, Gibraltar, Guadeloupe, Iceland, Jersey, Jordan, Cambodia, Cayman islands, Liechtenstein, Sri lanka, Luxembourg, Monaco, Macao, Martinique, Maldives, Nicaragua, Oman, Pakistan, Paraguay, Reunion, Uruguay, Russian federation.


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The College of Radiographers (CoR) was incorporated as a company (company registration number 1287383) limited by shares on 18 October 1976 and is also a registered charity (charity number 272505).
It is the only subsidiary of the Society of Radiographers.
The Society of Radiographers and the College of Radiographers are two separate companies operating together as the Society and College of Radiographers. They provide service and support for those involved in radiography and promote the science and practice of radiography for the benefit of patients and the public.
The office of the College of Radiographers is:
207 Providence Square
Quartz House
Mill Street
London SE1 2EW
The business of the College is overseen by the College Board of Trustees, who are the organisation's governing body.
The College publishes an impact report which can be found here.


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As a follow-up on our previous article on disadvantages and effects of cheating in public examinations, this post focuses on how to stop Exam Malpractice in Nigeria, and of course elsewhere. We are using Nigeria as a topic of discussion following increasing reports of cheating, leakage of exam papers, use of mobile texting systems to deliver answers to exam candidates, ghost examination halls, and more of what they now collectively refer to as "Exam Runz".
Before reading our outline on how to stop Exam Malpractice in Nigeria, we suggest that you first read disadvantages and effects of cheating in public examinations here. We expect both article, when put together to be an invaluable guide for students writing research work or term paper on examination malpractices in Nigeria, and Africa in general.
How To Stop Exam Malpractice in Nigeria
The following measures can be adopted to save the future of Nigerian students from the several menace of cheating in examinations.
1. Sound educational policy should be put in place with de-emphasis on the supremacy of certificates over skills and professional competence.
2. Appointment of supervisors of proven integrity and who are independent of the examinations centers.
3. The remuneration of invigilators and supervisors should be attractable that would not allow one to think of taking bribe to add to his earnings.
4. Ensure that only formally registered candidates sit for the examination.
5. Religious and community leaders should be used to intervene on parents who insist on their children getting the best result without genuine efforts for it.
6. Prohibit the use of electronic devices including cellular phones and IPADS
7. School teachers should be motivated and remunerated adequately and learning environment made friendly so that they can do their work satisfactorily and cover the syllabus before examinations.
8. There should frequent unannounced visits by officials of examination centers and erring centers should be punished.
9. The rigidity and timing of examinations should be reviewed in a such a way that when a student complained genuinely that he cannot write an examination another time suitable should be organized for him, this will eliminate the phobia of failure which may result in malpractice.
Read: Private Vs Public Universities – Which?
In Conclusion
Examination malpractice is an act or irregular manner of testing examiners contravenes the rules and conventions guiding the conduct of examinations. The causes could be attributed to the behaviour of examiners, parents and system. The consequences could be catastrophic to both education system would turn out the society certificated illiterates
Further Reading: http://saharareporters.com/2014/04/02/how-curb-examination-malpractices-nigeria-godday-odidi


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Shophouse Office with Attic for Rent.
A shophouse office with an attic for rent minutes away from all the convenience you can find in Singapore CBD.
Many shophouse offices for lease in the city have an attic at the top of the building. It can be used as meeting rooms or to house a different department that needs more privacy.
And because of the natural separation, you can save money on renovation cost. If you are looking to save some cost on your renovation, a shophouse office with an attic for rent is the right choice for you.
Details of Shophouse Office with Attic for Rent
This shophouse office has a fantastic layout. Big full-height windows lined the front of the office space. Because of the size of the windows, the interior is always bright. The wooden flooring adds more charm to the office. The airwell also lets in more lights covering the whole office space.
The facade of this shophouse office with an attic for rent is also very well decorated with ornament and has a good corporate image. There are also many parking facilities in the area so those who drive to work can find a parking space with ease.
Because of its centralised location, many other public modes of transport can get to this area easily too. Many buses from all over the island stop near Amoy Street. The Tanjong Pagar and Telok Ayer MRT stations are also within a short walking distance here.
Amenities near Amoy Street
Because Amoy Street is located in the CBD. Many commercial office buildings are also located in the same area. Fraser Tower, City House and many other office buildings can be found along Cecil Street.
You can also find many restaurants of different cuisine in the neighbourhood of Amoy Street. There are plenty of choices and if you prefer local fares once in a while, the nearby Amoy Food Centre, Maxwell Food Centre and Golden Shoe Food Centre are also filled with different dishes from different ethnic groups to satisfy your palette.
There are many other amenities like banks and other supporting businesses that will serve your daily operation needs that are always a few steps away.
If you frequently need to go to Financial District like Raffles Place and Marina Bay Financial Centre, Amoy Street is just a short distance away. A convenient location with an awesome-looking shophouse office for rent is waiting for you.
Come see this awesome office today.
Suitable for most business concepts.


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Words are merely symbols for the notions they designate. Depending on our respective experiences and imagination, they can be interpreted in a number of ways, rendering our individual perspectives unique and impossible to communicate. Like humanity, language is imperfect. Modern writers mean to display the often forgotten weaknesses of the written word, how it ultimately leaves us in a state of eternal solitude.
Take, for example, William Faulkner's As I Lay Dying, which follows the mourning process of each member of the Bundren family as they try to cope with the passing of their matriarch, Addie, during the Great Depression. Shifting between fifteen different streams of consciousness, the novel takes us on a journey of loneliness and isolation wherein the connection between death and solitude is used as a metaphor for the modernists' elucidation of the solitary confinement in which language leaves us.
Ironically, death comes as a salvation for Addie herself: "I knew that living was terrible." Revealed twenty-six chapters after her passing, her perspective can be heard or understood by no other character in the novel. In fact, Addie's relatives can barely understand one another, especially regarding her death: "Darl begun to laugh. Setting back there on the plank seat with Cash, with his dead ma laying at his feet, laughing. How many times I [Anse] told him it's doing such things that makes folks talk about him, I don't know." Each member of the family perceives Addie's death in a different manner:
"'Jewel's mother is a horse,' Darl said.
'Then mine can be a fish, cant it, Darl?' I [Vardaman] said.
Jewel is my brother.
'Then mine will have to be a horse, too,' I said.
'Why?' Darl said. 'If pa is your pa, why does your ma have to be a horse just because Jewel's is?'
'Why does it?' I said. 'Why does it, Darl?'
Darl is my brother.
'Then what is your ma, Darl?' I said.
'I haven't got ere one,' Darl said. 'Because if I had one, it is was. And if it was, it can't be is. Can it?'"
Addie's demise affects her relatives on such complex and intimate levels that it becomes difficult for even the readers to follow their reasoning: "Then it [the fish] wasn't and she [Addie] was, and now it is and she wasn't. And tomorrow it will be cooked and et and she will be him and pa and Cash and Dewey Dell and there won't be anything in the box and she can breathe." Incapable of communicating the intricacy of their mourning, they lash out at one another: "Jewel, I [Darl] say, Who was your father, Jewel? Goddamn you. Goddamn you." The depth of their grief alienates the characters from the rest of the world.
At the end of the novel, Darl, the most recurring narrator and the most articulate, is even estranged from his own identity. He refers to himself in the third person: "Darl had a little spy-glass he got in France at the war. In it, it had a woman and a pig with two backs and no face. I know what it is. 'Is that why you are laughing, Darl?'" Prompted by his mother's death to question existence itself and, ultimately, to contemplate his inescapable solitude, the misunderstood Darl loses his sanity.
In As I Lay Dying, death, the ultimate manifestation of human limitation, brings to light a solitary existence. This correlation between limitation and isolation is applicable to the modernist take on verbal communication. Modern writers believe that because language is merely a system of signs susceptible to interpretation, humanity is doomed to an eternal state of estrangement. If words and phrases have different meanings depending on our experiences and imagination, how can we efficiently communicate an instant or a state of being that is exclusively ours? And, since every instant is lived from our individual perspectives only, what experience is not exclusively ours? As Addie says, "I learned that words are no good; that words don't ever fit even what they are trying to say at."
To convey the imperfection of language and thus of his work, Faulkner places obvious and deliberate inconsistencies in his novel, such as the chapter Addie narrates well after her death: "And then I could get ready to die." Another such discrepancy occurs when Addie dies. Though Darl is miles away with Jewel, on a "yellow road neither of earth nor water, down the hill", he is capable of narrating the circumstances of his mother's death as if he were there:
"She [Addie] lies back and turns her head without so much glancing at pa. She looks at Vardaman; her eyes, the life in them, rushing suddenly upon them; the two flames glare up for a steady instant. Then they go out as though someone had leaned down and blown upon them."
I guess what I'm trying to convey in my own overly academic way is that the reason As I Lay Dying is celebrated as one of the greatest works of literature in American history has less to do with its deeply human plot or the complexity of its characters than its metatextual thesis. Written in six weeks between shifts at a power plant, the novel captures our own, inherent existential longing on a near universal level. In other words, Faulkner didn't just expose the limitations of language. In doing so, he transcended them.


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Create a Website Account - Manage notification subscriptions, save form progress and more.
Mayor Hocking invites citizens of La Marque and surrounding communities to enjoy the Magical Christmas Parade, Tree Lighting Ceremony and a visit with Santa on Wednesday, December 6. Parade starts at 6pm from Bobby Beach and Santa is at Walter Feigle Park
La Marque Mayor Bobby Hocking, City Council and City of La Marque staff are proud to present the annual Magical Christmas Parade and Tree Lighting Ceremony on Wednesday, December 6, 2017. The parade begins at 6:00 p.m. Viewing will be best after the intersection of Westward and Rosadele, from Cedar, Bayou, 1st Street or Laurel. The Tree Lighting Ceremony, complete with a free visit with Santa, will be held at Walter Feigle Park immediately following the parade.
Mayor Bobby Hocking invites citizens of La Marque and families from the surrounding communities to enjoy the parade then come visit with Santa and his elves. La Marque Lions Club provides popcorn and hot chocolate and Snow King provides free hotdogs, while they last! Sheldon Isaac Community Choir will lead Christmas carols during the festivities.
For information about the parade visit www.cityoflamarque.org, www.tclmchamber.com, or find our Facebook event. To enter the parade, call Darcie Valenzuela 409-935-1408 or email email@example.com.
The parade route starts from Westward Avenue near Bobby Beach Park, heads south toward Cedar, left on Cedar, left on Bayou, right on 1st and finally left on Laurel. Parade ends at Laurel and Bayou. Viewing will be best after the intersection of Westward and Rosadele, from Cedar, Bayou, First Street or Laurel.
A trophy for Most Magical Float will be awarded at 5:50 p.m. and the parade begins promptly at 6:00 p.m. To enter the parade, call Darcie Valenzuela at 409-935-1408 or email email@example.com.
La Marque Kiwanis will begin parade lineup at 5:00 p.m. on Westward Avenue near Bobby Beach Park. Come down FM 1765, head south on Westward and line up in first come, first served order. No floats or trailers will be allowed to enter Bobby Beach Park, other than La Marque Police and Fire vehicles and City Council convertibles donated by Cook Ford and DeMontrond Auto Group.
For the safety of parade participants, side streets off Westward Avenue will be blocked during parade lineup. Drop-off of parade participants will need to be done from side streets including John Street, Katherine Street, Virginia Street or McKinney Drive. All walking or marching groups will be at the front of the parade, immediately following City Council. Walking or marching groups should go directly to Bobby Beach Park upon arrival.
The parade information packet includes additional information including parade participant transpiration to Walter Feigle Park, additional rules and the parade application.
About the City of La Marque: The City of La Marque is strategically situated in Galveston County approximately 15 miles south of Houston and four miles north of Galveston. La Marque is the second-fastest-growing city in the county with an estimated population of 16,000, an area of 14.25 square miles and boasting 14.3 miles of I-45 frontage. Citizens enjoy coastal living, abundant housing options and the security of a hurricane protection levee system. The city provides a wide range of programs including Bayou Fest, an annual concert series and BBQ Cook Off; Magical Winter Lights, a 52-day holiday lantern festival and Crawfish Bash, an annual crawfish cook off that earned Guinness Book of World Records ranking in 2017. City of La Marque offers easy access to world-class medical, travel and entertainment options. For business, La Marque offers creative incentives, an abundance of commercial property and build-to-suit opportunities. La Marque is the Gateway to the Gulf. Discover the possibilities at www.cityoflamarque.org.


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Boros Keyrune
In Stock
Buy This Product
NM-Mint, English, 3 in-stock
Extra Info
- Color: Artifact
- Card Text: T: Add R or W to your mana poolRW: Boros Keyrune becomes a 1/1 red and white Soldier artifact creature with double strike until end of turn. (It deals both first-strike and regular combat damage.)
- Rarity: U
- Cost: 3
- Card Type: Artifact
- Artist: Daniel Ljunggren
- Name: Boros Keyrune
- Finish: Regular
- Card Number: 223/249
- Set Name: Gatecrash


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The evening's demonstrator was Chris Parker from "The Bald Woodturners" who will demonstrate a Hollow Form with a Fluted Top and then colored similar to this picture.
Chris is a full-time Turner, artist, demonstrater & teacher. He enjoys being able to pass his knowledge onto others. His passion for our craft is as strong now as it was when he started. He enjoys texturing his turned pieces with various techniques from a simple wire brush to more advanced techniques, he likes his pieces to be organic & individual. He finds inspiration for his textures & forms from various places, but most notably from the ancient ceramicists.
The project itself is from a piece of Sycamore that is 7 1/2in x 3in thick and is turned at a rate of 1100 rpm for starters. It was mounted on a screw chuck for the initial process.
Chris started by curving the base round whilst also producing a tenon for the chuck, this curve being produced without the need of turning the blank to a true round. A pull cut was used to remove a large amount of the waste wood and then a push cut to produce a fluid curved form around to the top of the blank.
The marking out for the tenon was produced with a pencil attached to a piece of plywood sized to a set thickness, which when placed on the top of the tailstock and pushed against the blank to get the size required for a set of H gripper jaws made by Axminster.
Chris answered the various questions asked by the participants on the chat screen, with Rob relaying the questions to him, this in itself worked well.
Chris also used Blue Peter moments to keep the process moving at an even pace throughout the process, the blank was reversed onto the H jaws and then hollowed out, at this moment Chris produced his second blank which had been hollowed out and allowed to dry.
This then needed to be re-turned to bring it back to true round, this was achieved by mounting the blank onto Pin jaws that had hosepipe pushed over them so as not to mark the wood, this was inserted into the opening, and carefully secured.
A Simon Hope 6mm hollowing tool was used for this and a hook tool. When Chris was satisfied with the shape and the hollow form he then used his indexing plate to form 14 segments around the top of the form by drawing a line straight across the form using a pencil jig set to the height of the lathe center.
The hollow form was again refined with a curve from one aspect of the segment to another, (a French curve could be used for this) in this way a gentle curve was produced around the top of the form.
This was then removed with the chuck and fitted to a Woodcut Carvers Clamp that was inserted into the tool post holder. At this point Chris put a line around the top of the hollow form as a guide to how deep he could go, bearing in mind that he had a wall thickness of around 12mm to play with.
Chris then produced a Die Grinder with a Kutuall ¾ extreme bull nose burr which he used to start refining the top of the form in a sweeping motion for each segment, when satisfied with the depth and the progress he swapped to a 9.5mm smaller extreme burr to finish off the process. A further texture was added at this point by the use of a Dremel engraver with a blunt nail which was used in all of the flutes.
Chris demonstrated this process on three flutes and then produced another hollow form with all of the flutes cut and engraved. The smoothing process was carried out with a Silverline Filament Wheel which has a silicon compound embedded into it so that it always has a sharp edge.
The top of the form was then sprayed with Black Acrylic Paint from the center outwards to keep the paint spray away from the out edge of the curve, this was then dried utilizing a hot air gun although Chris did state that he normally allows them to dry naturally.
At this point a Metallic Gold Paint was applied to the ridges of the flutes utilizing a dry brush technique, this highlighted the ridges and also the texture produced by the texturing. This dry technique allows for more paint to be added if required but it cannot remove it if the brush is overloaded with paint. Stroke the paint onto the form, do not dab it on.
When the paint has dried a Lacquer was applied,with either a Satin or Matt finish as Chris prefers this to gloss. When dry the hollow form is again reversed to remove the foot from the project, at this point either a flat or rounded foot can be used, for our project a flat foot was produced.
Chris's demo went down very well with all participants and was also mentioned that he would be coming back to demonstrate for us again in the near future.
All references to the tools and additional burrs used will follow at the end.
I would like to thank Rob Hackett for his work with relaying the questions and for the excellent job of co-hosting the event as usual.
I would also like to thank the BCWT club for putting on this demonstration at no cost to members.
Ian Brown gave a date out for the Mary Stevens Summer Fair which was 4th September 2021 and hoped that club members would undertake various projects that could be used to sell for the charity event on a table that has been provided for us to use, with access to PowerPoint for the club demo lathe.
I will finish by stating that I think this was one of the best demonstrations that we have had and has given us all an interesting sequence of developments that we can use for our own project in the future.
Remember that our next chinwag event will be held on the 3rd of June 2021.
Don't forget to send in your photos for the chairman's challenge and any other items you are working on to firstname.lastname@example.com
Report by Barrie Fisher and edited by Steve Hackett.
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text:
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Physics and Astronomy
Document Type
We present a numerical method for the study of double white dwarf (DWD) binary systems at the onset of super-Eddington mass transfer. We incorporate the physics of ideal inviscid hydrodynamical flow, Newtonian self-gravity, and radiation transport on a three-dimensional uniformly rotating cylindrical Eulerian grid. Our new method conserves total energy to a higher degree of accuracy than recent smoothed particle hydrodynamics methods and our previous Eulerian grid based method. We present the results of verification tests and we simulate the first 20+ orbits of a binary system of mass ratio q=0.7 at the onset of dynamically unstable direct impact mass transfer. Although the mass transfer rate exceeds the critical Eddington limit by many orders of magnitude, it appears to have very little effect on the accretion flow. We also model over 20 orbits of a DWD of mass ratio q=0.4. In these simulations, the accretion stream detaches from the accretor after 4 orbits and an asymmetric accretion torus forms. We submit these DWD models as the first self-consistent three dimensional simulations of mass transferring DWDs incorporating radiation transport.
Document Availability at the Time of Submission
Release the entire work immediately for access worldwide.
Recommended Citation
Marcello, Dominic Carlo, "Numerical methods for the study of super-Eddington mass transfer in double white dwarf binaries" (2011). LSU Doctoral Dissertations. 4061.
Committee Chair
Tohline, Joel E.


text:
How to freeze cookie dough … kitchen helper
Making your own biscuits or cookies is a great idea because homemade always tastes best and it will save you money. And if you've got school-aged children you can create tasty lunch-box treats and know exactly what ingredients are going into them. Because most of us are time-poor it makes sense to make a big batch of cookies so that you've got a supply on hand whenever you need them or whenever the craving for fresh cookies hits. You can freeze cookie dough but there are a few tips to ensure you get the best results. Read on to discover them.
1. Chill your cookie dough in the fridge for at least 30 minutes, then roll the dough into balls and place them on a baking tray.
2. Pop the baking tray with the balls in the fridge for an hour; this will help the dough hold its shape.
3. Transfer the balls to an airtight container and label it with the date. You should use cookie dough within 6 weeks of making it.
4. Place the container in the freezer until you are ready to use the dough.
5. When it comes time to bake the cookies you can either bake from frozen, just add an extra couple of minutes to the cooking time, or you can thaw the dough at room temperature for 30 minutes before baking.


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Gianluca Gorini and its food-beer pairing: a combination that can still give many satisfactions
In San Piero in Bagno (FC), a small town in the heart of the Apennines between Romagna and Tuscany, a young but already driven chef is creating a perfect match between the typical Romagna hospitality and gourmet cuisine devoted to the contemporary.
We are talking about Gianluca Gorini, the eclectic owner of the homonymous and Michelin starred restaurant Da Gorini.
We choose to interview him also to have an authoritative opinion about the quite unusual food-beer combination he adopted for his gourmet restaurant.
How did you come up with the idea of opening your own bistrot and which factors led you to this name?
"My dream, since I was a child, has always been to open a restaurant and I feel lucky because I do not think it is that obvious having a clear idea about your future at such an early age.
With regard to the name of the restaurant, I decided to carry on the tradition: my family once ran its own restaurant and named it after them. I think this is a typical Italian feature, linked to the gastronomic tradition of our so-called Bel Paese. It also reflects our idea of catering: expressing ourselves in a contemporary way whilst remembering our roots and identity, pampering our customers in every way possible with smiles, care, kindness and good food, of course".
What is your personal challenge as a restaurateur?
"The real challenge for a restaurateur is not to attract the customers and lead them into their own restaurant for once, but consistently bringing them back, because that's the only way for a restaurant to plan for the future and looking towards it with serenity.
My other great goal is to tell our culture with a new personal language, through techniques, skills and possibilities that weren't there 30 years ago.".
We know that the menu also contains a dish matched by a beer. What do you think about it and what inspired you towards this special suggestion?
"Nowadays I believe that a chef must have the ability not to set any boundaries to himself. The food-beer combination is not such a strange thing but only a way to add a different shade in terms of taste and perspective, too. We now live in an age where we can get everything we want, we must therefore be able to deal with everything if we want to give a modern feel to what we do.
For all I care, the food-beer pairing was born because a certain dish required certain characteristics that I found in beer.
One of the food-beer combinations that we propose put the artichoke under the spotlight. It's a product that hardly combines with wine. The hopped brew has instead allowed us to find balance in sense of fulfillment enhancing a whole new dimension to artichoke, the matcha tea powder touch giving it an even more tannic taste. We finally found that right point of freshness and acidity that perfectly complete the dish".
What kind of beer you usually prefer for this combination?
"Generally, an IPA on slightly green, hoppy toasted notes".
What is the right path to take for Italian people to understand that beer can also be combined with a gourmet cuisine?
"People must be encouraged to want to increase their cultural background heritage. I think that those who attend our restaurant are already prepared and open to this type of experience because we have made a name for ourselves through knowledges, work and professionalism. Therefore, customers find it easier to be guided by our proposals".


text:
Making sure your roof is in good condition is key to preventing future damage and keeping your home safe! Here are some telltale signs it may be time to repair or replace your roof.
The responsibilities of being a homeowner are numerous, and it can be difficult to know what to look for when it comes to maintaining the condition of your home. When it comes to your roof, there are several signs you can look out for to determine whether your roof needs to be repaired or replaced. Paying attention to these signs will allow you to prevent damage before it happens, save yourself some trouble down the road, and keep your home safe.
Interior Damage
One of the first and easiest places to look for signs of roof damage is in the attic of your home. Take a flashlight and check for dark stains or streaks and areas of the roof that may be sagging. Turn the flashlight off and see if there is any sunlight shining through. If light is able to get through the cracks in your roof, so is rain or snow! Finally, check to see if there are any other signs of leaks or water damage.
Age of Roof
In general, a roof should last about 20-25 years, depending on the type of roof. Check your records to see when your roof was last replaced. If your roof is nearing the end of its useful life, you may start to notice your roof looking generally old and worn. Additionally, if your neighbors are replacing their roofs that may be a good indication it is time to start the process yourself. Replacing a roof is a project you need to give yourself time to schedule – don't wait until it is too late!
Exterior Damage
In addition to checking the interior of your home, there are several signs you can look for on the exterior of your home as well. Look for damaged or cupped shingles or shingles that curl at the edges. Similar to the interior inspection, check for dark streaks, water damage, and signs of rot. Examine flashing to make sure there are not cracks or leaks around vents, skylights, and chimneys. Lastly, keep an eye out for moss. While moss growth can be purely cosmetic in some instances, it may also indicate trapped water, which could lead to further damage.
Storm Damage
If your home has recently endured a severe storm, it is always a good idea to check your roof for signs of damage. The shingles on your roof should lie flat and not buckle. Check your gutters and downspouts for granules. If granules are coming loose, especially if your roof is older, it could be time to replace your roof!
Drooping or Sagging Roof
This is one of the biggest indicators of roof damage. If you notice a drooping or sagging roof, it is important to contact a roofing contractor immediately!
In some instances, it may be safer to have a roofing contractor inspect the exterior of your roof for damage. However, if you are able to access your roof, there are many telltale signs that it is time to take action to prevent further damage.


text:
How Can We Clean Up the Oceans?
Plastic is a huge problem in the oceans, but engineers and research groups are working on how to deal with it.
Source: SciShow
Read more: ecowatch.com
– Trash
– Save The Ocean From Plastic: Drone On The Job
– Ocean Cleanup Array Could Remove Plastic Garbage From The World's Oceans
– How To Clean Vast Water Surfaces? Centrifugal Cleaner Knows It.
– Smart Ocean Cleaner
– The EKOCYCLE Cube 3D Printer
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