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I say "epic" tongue in cheek, because I went a bit overboard this year. When I sat down to write this, I was thinking of maybe eight or ten predictions with short narratives. I'm bringing you 21 predictions with expansive narratives. Skim the headlines then read what grabs you.
All of us in this business, from writers to readers and everyone in between, have a vision for where things are going.
Vision is an odd thing. To see something which doesn't exist either makes one a prophetic seer or a delusional nut. At the wonderful Pikes Peak conference in Colorado Springs earlier this year, I had the pleasure to meet Donald Maass, an author and top tier literary agent for whom I have much respect. I attended a surprising session in which he trashed self-publishing. The mood in the room changed from optimism to dejection when he spoke words to the effect of, "If you don't care to reach readers, then by all means self-publish." I was floored by his comment, because it's not what I expected from someone of his smarts. I've met with dozens of literary agents over the last 18 months, and 95% of them see things differently than Donald Maass.
When I saw him later that night at a dinner, I told him I thought he was underestimating the transformative impact self-published authors will have on book publishing. He looked me in the eye, smiled, and said, "and I think you're delusional." Touché! I think it was one of my favorite moments of the year. One of us will come to our senses eventually.
We are all on a journey. None of us know with absolute certainty what happens next. All we can do is position ourselves for the future we prophetically or delusionally imagine. History will judge us all. Those who position correctly will be rewarded. Those who aren't prepared will face the harsh realities of the future marketplace.
Every one of us holds the power to change the course of history by taking actions today that enable the future we desire. Our actions mirror our aspirations, which means the future of publishing will be determined by our collective and sometimes competing aspirations. Readers are our gatekeepers.
I challenge you, my dear writer, publisher or reader, to take charge of your future. Imagine a brighter and better future ahead, where the culture of books reigns supreme, where more people are discovering, reading, purchasing, publishing, selling, and profiting-from books. Imagine a future where more readers than ever before will enjoy a greater diversity of books than ever before. Imagine a future where the power center of the publishing business shifts from traditional publishers to ordinary writers where it belongs. This is the future I imagine, and it's the future we're working to realize at Smashwords on behalf of our 50,000 authors and publishers around the globe.
The utopian and often self-serving aspirations of industry participants don't always intersect. Sometimes, objectives are at odds with one another, and at other times objectives are aligned. Our experiences, biases and fears color our perceptions, and sometimes distort them.
Much is at stake. The world's 50 largest book publishers alone achieved $68 billion in sales in 2011, according to Publishers Weekly. When so much money and power is up for grabs, industry players have a lot to fight over, and much to protect. Books are worth fighting for, so fight for the future you want. Otherwise, someone else may determine your future for you.
When I started Smashwords almost five years ago, I felt I had a clear vision for how ebooks could transform book publishing for the benefit of authors, publishers and readers. I positioned Smashwords and its services to serve self-published authors and small publishers. Although I believed we could build a large business helping authors publish and sell ebooks, I had no idea our revenues would grow so slowly in our first year, 2008, when our revenues totaled under $1,000. In early 2009, I had no idea that by the end of the year, we'd fundamentally change our business from that of simply a publishing platform to that of ebook distribution. Although I believed in ebooks, I had no idea the market would develop this fast. When I first started working on the Smashwords business plan, ebooks accounted for less than one quarter of 1% of overall US trade book sales. Although I believed self-published authors deserved to become future bestsellers, I had no idea that so many would hit the bestseller lists so quickly. I definitely had no idea that less than five years after starting Smashwords, we'd be supporting the e-publishing and distribution efforts of so many authors, small publishers and literary agents. None of us can truly predict the future, but we can still prepare for it by remaining flexible. We must be willing to roll with the punches when fate tries to smack us upside the head, and adjust our course and our beliefs when we make mistakes.
My crystal ball gets murkier from here on out, and for reasons you might not expect. The doubters like Donald Maass are becoming the exception, not the rule, and that worries me. When everyone starts swimming in the same direction and believing the same group think, that's when I start wondering about what comes next. It's the job of any entrepreneur - and we are all entrepreneurs of our own destiny - to prepare for the future while surviving today.
My 21 Book Industry Predictions for 2013:
1. In the US, ebooks sales will reach 45% of US trade book market
Ebook sales growth in the US is slowing, but we'll still continue to see ebooks take eyeballs from print books. Brick and mortar retailers will reduce shelf space for print as more readers turn to screens as their new paper of choice. Ebooks as a percentage of overall trade book sales in the US should hit 45%, up from what I'm estimating will probably be 30% in 2012. I might be underestimating both numbers. It's tough to find reliable market share data.
2. Follow the eyeballs: 2013 will be the first year unit volume of ebooks exceeds print
The dollar sales growth of ebooks understates the profound shift to ebooks and screen reading. 2013 will be the first year more books are read on screens than on paper. To really understand the seismic shift toward screens, follow the eyeballs. Ebooks cost less than print books. The price of ebooks is declining, which means that the dollar sales growth cited above understates the increase in unit sales volume, and unit download volume. Furthermore, the data doesn't measure free downloads.
Here's a newsflash, and you're reading it here first: Smashwords authors are generating about 3 million downloads at the Apple iBookstore each month, for books priced at FREE. Annualized, that's over 36 million downloads. I expect we'll do more in 2013. My 36 million number doesn't include the millions of readers our authors are reaching each month across Barnes & Noble, Sony, Kobo, the Diesel eBookstore, Page Foundry, Blio, the Smashwords.com store, and at public libraries. Our authors are building platforms and fan bases at a faster rate than many traditionally published authors.
When customers have the option to purchase two books of equal quality, and one is priced at $2.99 and the other at $10+, our data indicates the books generate essentially the same amount of dollar sales, but the $2.99 price yields six times as many unit sales. If you're an author, and you have a the option to earn the same earnings at $2.99 as $10+, but at $2.99 you'll build your platform six times faster, what price is the right price? It's a no-brainer.
Indie authors are leveraging the agency model, earning royalties of 60-70% list. This allows them to price lower, earn more per-unit at lower prices than traditionally published authors selling at higher prices, and all while the lower prices help them sell more units and build author brands faster than authors stuck with traditional publishing deals. Tell me again why authors of the future will want to hobble their careers working with a big publisher that over-prices their work, starves them of readers, and pays per-unit royalty rates of 25% net when indies are earning triple to quadruple that when they self-publish?
3. The current glut of books will become even more pronounced
Even before the indie ebook revolution, there was a glut of books. There are simply too many great books worth reading, and not enough eyeballs or hours in a lifetime to read them all. 2013 will remind us we haven't seen anything yet. Thanks to the increased awareness and street cred of indie ebook publishing, and free online tools like Smashwords that make ebook publishing fast, free and easy, the next generation of writers is realizing they need not bow subservient before the altars of publishing gatekeepers ever again.
Smashwords authors are publishing direct to their readers and achieving global distribution. This is leading to a surge of new titles that never stop coming, and never go out of print. In 2013, self-published ebooks will swamp the titles put out by traditional publishers. This is good for the future of authors, readers and publishing. We're in the early stages of a full scale publishing renaissance. Readers now have access to an amazing diversity of high quality books.
Some industry participants – some authors included – fear this glut, because they think it'll either increase competition or decrease discoverability. Yes and no. More high-quality titles than ever will be released, because the barriers to publication have been eliminated. Readers will discover the best books and propel them forward through word of mouth. More poor-quality books than ever will also be released, and these books will be summarily ignored by readers, reviewed poorly, and will fail to spark word of mouth. Yes, competition will increase, but so will author opportunity, because more readers than ever will be reading ebooks.
4. It'll get tougher to sell books
The easy days are behind us. In the next few years, I expect millions of out of print books will come back to life as ebooks. Millions of writers will self-publish new titles. The virtual shelves of online ebook retailers will expand to accommodate a limitless supply of ebooks.
In the early days of self-published ebooks when there were fewer books to choose from, the act of making your book available in the ebook format helped you reach a lot of readers. In 2013, authors will face more competition for reader eyeshare. Most of that competition will come from fellow indie authors.
Indies, as a collective organism, are become more knowledgeable, professional and sophisticated in their publishing. They're pioneering the best practices of tomorrow. All authors will need to up their game. That means more professional editing, more professional cover design, broader distribution, smart pricing, and more books. Unlike their static print counterparts of yesteryear, ebooks are living, dynamic and immortal creatures. You can upgrade your ebook to make it more available, accessible and enjoyable to readers at any time.
5. Publishers, in search of Black Swans, will lose authors to self-publishing platforms
Publishers are in the business of selling books, not publishing books.
The dirty business of publishing is simply the means to the bookselling ends. The publishing industry has always been built around a model of scarcity and exclusivity. Publishers want to acquire and publish only those titles they think have the greatest commercial potential. They reject all the rest as riff raff, and then they carefully meter out their chosen books in seasonal catalogs.
Publishers have built barriers – let's call them dams and dykes and parapets – to protect against the hordes of aspiring writers seeking publication. Publishers require writers to work through agents, who are charged with identifying titles publishers will want to publish. Many top-tier agents reject 5,000 authors for every author they sign on. Publishers still reject many of the agented books as well.
Big publishers see the great unwashed masses of aspiring authors as a problem, and these walls insulate them from the problem. Publishers are simply unable to take a risk on every author. They realize most of these books don't have strong commercial potential, and on that count they're correct.
Publishers devote tremendous energy and expense trying to build barriers to hold back the flood, but in the process of rejecting the riff raff they're also rejecting the unrecognizable future breakouts. These breakouts are the Black Swans of publishing, to borrow a term popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan: The Impact of The Highly Improbable. As described by Taleb, a Black Swan event is unexpected, unseen, unanticipated, improbable, and unpredictable. When it hits, it turns everything upside down and changes the world forever.
Since most books fail, we can think of a true breakout book as a Black Swan event. The newly hatched Black Swans are invisible to the publisher because they're hiding in a sea of baby black geese. By sheer luck, numbers and some skill, Publishers pick out a few of the swans, but miss the others. Only the full marketplace of readers can reliably identify the black swans. In the dark ages of publishing, prior to five years ago, the baby swans were culled by publishers, denied any chance to reach readers. How many great classics have been lost to humanity simply because publishers missed the black swans?
This philosophy and attitude among large publishers that "most authors are a problem" and are unworthy of publishing is deep-seated. Yes, most authors don't sell well. Most authors published by big publishers don't sell well either, and therefore are unprofitable to publishers.
The secret to capturing the Black Swans is to embrace all authors. It's what we do at Smashwords. I created the Smashwords publishing platform so I could take a risk on every writer, the swans and geese alike. We believe every writer is special, every writer has a right to publish, every book is valuable to the world regardless of commercial potential, and only readers can determine what's worth reading. We don't sell services. We earn a small commission only if we help sell books.
Until publishers learn to honor, respect and embrace every writer, unequivocally and independent of perceived commercial merit, they'll continue to lose the Black Swans to Smashwords, and they'll continue to disenfranchise writers. Publishers can't embrace authors with platitudes. To succeed at self-publishing, the publisher must learn to embrace authors in a way that the publisher's interests and author's interests are properly aligned. Proper alignment is only possible if publishers help authors sell books, and if the money flows from publisher to author. If money flows from author to publisher, that publisher is a parasite.
6. Overall ebook prices will decline, though author brands will retain pricing power
It's simple economics. Excess supply of books, unlimited supply of alternative non-book media forms, and limited supply of reader eyeballs means that the producers of books – authors and publishers – will continue to compete on price. When quality is equal, price is one of the dominant levers (convenience and selection are the other two) that drives consumer behavior.
Will book prices fall to zero as authors and publishers compete for readers? No. But authors and publishers must compete against free. Luckily, what writers write is completely unique. This unique creation has value, and if it's desirable to readers, and the perceived desirability outweighs the price, readers will pay. Readers will favor trusted author brands. That means your opportunity as a writer is to build your brand.
7. Passive discoverability trumps other book marketing methods
Most books don't sell well, even when backed by expensive marketing. It's really tough for authors to earn a return on their marketing investment. Many marketing service providers will happily take thousands of dollars in fees, yet deliver few sales.
Authors need a better solution, and part of that solution is to recognize that marketing isn't quite as important as most people think it is. Marketing is a catalyst, not a fuel. The book, and the customer's reaction to that book, is the fuel. In the year ahead, authors and publishers will place increased attention on passive discoverability.
Passive discoverability is all about making books findable by readers. The secret is to apply viral catalysts, a term I introduced and describe in detail in The Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success. A viral catalyst is something that makes a book more available, discoverable, accessible, and enjoyable to readers.
Think of your books as an object, and attached to the object are dozens of dials and levers (the viral catalysts) you can twist, turn and tweak to make your book more available, discoverable and enjoyable. When you get the combination just right, reader word of mouth kicks in and propels your book sales forward.
Think of these viral catalysts as beacons that are working 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, to broadcast your book's virtues to readers looking for a book just like what you published. The beacons will shine on ebook retailer shelves, and readers will discover them through retailer-operated merchandising systems, search engines, reader reviews, and social media hyperlinks. By leveraging viral catalysts for passive discoverability, your book becomes findable forever.
8. Tablets will become the new paper as E-Ink becomes niche product
In the brief history of ebooks, 2012 was the first year that dedicated e-reading devices saw a unit volume decline, even though overall ebook consumption continued to grow. The cause? Readers are showing a preference for multi-function tablets like the iPad, according to a report released this month issued by iSuppli.
In 2013, this trend is likely to continue as readers are drawn to tablets, and these tablets become faster, better and cheaper. It's unclear how this will impact ebook sales.
On the one hand, as books become woven into the hyperlinked fabric of the Internet, books will become more available and discoverable to more people, even to people who aren't looking for them. On the other hand, these tablets are media consumption devices, which means books will once again have to compete against an ADHD-inspired array of alternative media consumption options.
With dedicated e-reading devices, such distractions are less prevalent. E-Ink devices won't go away because they still provide compelling advantages for many consumers.
9. Global will be the biggest story of 2013 for indie authors
The market for English-language ebooks outside the US will eclipse the US market in 2013.
As I predicted above, in the US, ebooks as a percentage of the overall trade book market will probably reach about 45% in 2013, up from approximately 30% in 2012, 19% in 2011, 8% in 2010, 3% in 2009, and 1% in 2008 (these are AAP numbers, with 2012 and 2013 my personal estimates).
This means that while the US market is still growing, the growth is slowing. Ebooks broke out first in the US market. Now they're breaking out internationally as other countries enter the exponential phase of growth for their ebook markets.
Indie authors have a similar ground floor window of opportunity to become big fish in the small pond of these fast-growing markets, like the early indie ebook authors had in the US market in 2008 and 2009. And like the market of 2008 and 2009, larger publishers were slow to enter the party. Today on the global front, they're struggling to overcome decades of legacy territory rights practices that have hamstrung their ability to distribute ebooks to all countries. They'll get there soon.
As an indie author, you can get there now.
The rise of global also means that authors should modify their marketing to become more world-aware. Each store in each country has its own reviews and its own web page addresses. A great review at Apple or Amazon in the US is invisible to customers shopping in their UK stores (Amazon provides a link in their UK store to view additional reviews in the US store, though US customers aren't given a link to view reviews from other Amazon stores). Each store in each country represents its own micro-market, and your opportunity is to build fans everywhere. On your blog and website, start providing direct hyperlinks to the different stores operated by each retailer in each of your primary countries. Outside the US, English-language authors will do best in Australia, the UK, Canada, and New Zealand, but you'll still sell into other countries. Your social media marketing on Facebook, Twitter or on your blog will cross most international boundaries.
10. Amazon, Apple, Barnes & Noble and Kobo will redouble global expansion efforts
It's a land grab. In 2012, all the major ebook retailers expanded their global operations. Amazon is now in about 10 countries. The Apple iBookstore is operating stores in 50 countries. Barnes & Noble entered the U.K. in 2012, and will probably make 2013 the year it goes completely global. Kobo has always had an international focus, and following its acquisition by globally-minded ecommerce juggernaut Rakuten in Japan, I expect more global expansion from them in 2013.
11. Apple iBookstore will be the breakout story of 2013 ebook retailing
With little fanfare, the Apple iBookstore dramatically expanded its international reach in 2012, starting the year with iBookstores in 19 countries and ending the year with 50 countries - far outpacing the global expansion of other retailers. Internationally, iBookstore sales surged on the strength of explosive growth in iPads and iPhones, and with readers showing preference for multi-function devices over single-purpose e-readers.
For the month of November 2012, sales of Smashwords-distributed titles at the Apple iBookstore more than tripled compared to the same month a year ago, a growth rate that exceeded the growth at other retailers in the Smashwords distribution network.
Despite the fantastic growth at Apple, many authors still treat Apple as an afterthought compared to the bigger book retailing brand of Amazon, and to some extent Barnes & Noble. It's not uncommon for many authors, in their email signatures, blogs, websites, and other social media networks to link only to their books at Amazon. This is a mistake because when analysts start estimating ebook market share for 2012 in 2013, I think Apple's growth will turn heads.
The growth of the Apple iBookstore is inextricably linked to the growth of Apple devices, such as the iPad, iPad Mini, iPhone, and iPod Touch. If sales of these devices continue to surge, the iBookstore will enjoy above-market growth rates. Apple's primary competitors, Amazon and Barnes & Noble, both offer competing tablets, which, although lower priced, are starting from a disadvantage in that they don't have the hardware and software design experience of Apple, or the same fanatic brand loyalty.
It's interesting to think that the winner of the ebook retailing wars may be the company that designs the best e-reading devices. Screens are the new paper.
As 2013 progresses, keep an eye on market share data for the different tablet platforms. If the recent iSuppli data is correct, and if tablets continue to take market share from dedicated E-Ink devices, then the market share numbers will serve as a leading indicator of which retailer is gaining advantage in the ebook marketplace. Two days ago, an industry analyst at Pacific Crest Securities came out with a report that said his channel sources have provided him data that led him to conclude that the Kindle Fire tablet is selling more poorly than he expected as buyers choose Apple devices instead. If true, it could be a turning point.
Ever since launching the iBookstore in early 2010, Apple has been aggressively adding content and capabilities to their store, and has expanded its global footprint faster than any retailer. Despite their progress, they maintain a low key public profile when it comes to touting their growth and accomplishments. I'm not sure why they've taken this low-key approach. Apple keeps their future plans close to the vest.
Apple has always been supportive of indie authors. They pioneered the agency pricing model, which dramatically increased author earnings over the industry's conventional wholesale model. Agency pricing puts pricing decisions in the hands of authors and publishers, where it belongs. It's counterintuitive to some, but the agency model actually leads to price reductions. It gives authors greater flexibility to compete on price, and earn more at lower prices compared to what they'd earn under the old wholesale model.
Apple's global merchandising team is impressive. They're customer centric. They're giving our authors a seat at the merchandising table. They've been more proactive than any other retailer at promoting Smashwords titles, both individually and within larger creative promotions, such as the Breakout Author promotion that happened in Australia and New Zealand featuring thousands of Smashwords authors.
Apple's pro-indie merchandising efforts have paid big dividends for Apple. These books are getting great reviews from Apple customers. Our books are selling. Smashwords titles routinely grace the top 10 bestseller lists at Apple iBookstores around the world. Apple's earning millions of well-deserved dollars selling our books, and that makes me happy.
2013 will be the year people start paying fresh attention to Apple. Thanks to Apple's success, indie authors will gain increased credibility and respect in the publishing industry.
12. Amazon's global ebook market share will decline
Amazon deserves immense credit for catalyzing the ebook revolution. Although Sony beat Amazon to market with a solid e-reader, Amazon helped put ebooks on the map in a way that no other retailer could. In the process, they've helped create livelihoods for many writers who previously faced few options.
That said, Amazon's star could dim in 2013, even as its ebook business grows. Amazon's ebook sales volume will grow significantly in 2013, but their global market share will decline amid increased competition from well-funded competitors such as Apple, Barnes & Noble, Kobo, and others. We've seen it already in the US market. A few years ago, Amazon held about 90% market share in the US. Today, thanks to the rise of its competitors, Amazon's market share has dropped to somewhere around 60% (Amazon doesn't disclose its numbers, so the industry is left to guess the true number).
Amazon also faces a backlash from authors, publishers and partners who have grown weary of Amazon's heavy-handed business practices. Amazon's a fierce competitor and a brilliant strategic player. They play the game of chess like few others. Every move today is calculated based on its impact five years from today. By making moves today to exploit opportunities that don't even exist yet, they have shown an uncanny ability to outflank and outmaneuver their competitors.
Amazon's potential undoing, however, is greed and bullying. They don't just play to win, they play to grind their competitors into bloody submissive pulps. They also have a more expansive, more inclusive definition of their competition than any other ebook industry player. Amazon's working to vertically disintermediate everyone that stands between the content producer (the author) and the content buyer (the customer). In a cover story in Fortune Magazine this month, writer Adam Lashinsky notes that a favorite Jeff Bezos aphorism is "Your margin is my opportunity." That attitude may come to haunt Amazon in 2013.
If Amazon could invent a system to replace the author from the equation, they'd do that too. Actually, it's already happening, though not directly by Amazon's hand. One innovative publisher, ICON Group International, has patented a system that automatically generates non-fiction books. Over 100,000 of these titles are now for sale at Amazon, according to this story at Singularity Hub. As the field of artificial intelligence increases, how long until novelists are disintermediated by machines? It's a preposterous idea worthy of science fiction.
But maybe it's not so preposterous after all. Amazon has already shown a willingness to replace one author with another. Witness their KDP Select program, announced one year ago, which encourages authors to remove their books from Amazon's competitors. The opt-in program aims to remove indie ebooks from the shelves of its retailer competitors, while at the same time making participating authors more dependent upon Amazon. By providing favorable sales advantage to those who opt in to their exclusivity program as compared to KDP authors who don't opt in, they're punishing their own non-participating KDP authors by providing KDP Select books preferential discoverability over non-participating books.
As Amazon enters new markets, as they did this year with India and Brazil, they're making KDP-Select participation a mandatory requirement if authors want to earn the full 70% royalty rate which is otherwise standard in other Amazon territories, and standard at other retailers (and without the corresponding exclusivity strings attached). If you don't opt in, you earn only 35% in these emerging countries.
Exclusivity works to Amazon's advantage, but for the author it's a crapshoot. From the author's perspective, exclusivity carries with it a set of knowns and unknowns, placing authors in the difficult of position of playing Russian Roulette with their careers. The author can't accurately predict or measure what they're giving up by going exclusive (though based on what I'm seeing, KDP Select authors are harming their platform building in other channels), but if they don't go exclusive they don't know what KDP Select benefits they passed up.
For some authors, Amazon's attempts at exclusivity speak to their worst fears about the company. Despite the criticism and bad will generated by these policies, Amazon soldiers on, doubling down on its exclusivity strategy. Either we're witnessing Amazon making a strategic blunder, or Amazon sees a future none of the rest of us see. A future where Amazon's the dominant controlling player and any author who wants to reach readers will be forced to do so under the thumb of Amazon's rules, which are already the strictest and most vigorously enforced in the industry. Time will tell.
I think Jeff Bezos is brilliant, and Amazon is a great company, though I think they'd be better served if they dropped a bit of their crush, kill, destroy, turn-to-bloody-pulp attitude. It's a high risk strategy that will either work well for Amazon, or it"ll blow up. At a minimum, Amazon's "everyone is my competitor" attitude encourages its potential partners, like Smashwords, to pursue fruitful relationships with other kinder, gentler partners.
Amazon's actions, such as their controversial Price Check app, have revealed their intentions to do to all brick and mortar retailers what Wal Mart did to Main Street America. Competitors such as B&N (next item below), now have an opportunity to strike mutually complementary partnerships with companies that won't partner with Amazon.
13. Barnes & Noble will rise again like a Phoenix
Barnes & Noble is the Rodney Dangerfield of ebook retailing.
Industry watchers have been predicting the demise of B&N for a few years. Premature causes of death were said to be the rise of Amazon, or the DoJ or EEC's anti-agency rulings, or B&N's slow global expansion, or their poor cash position.
In 2012, B&N received a $300 million cash infusion from Microsoft, and entered the U.K. with an innovative brick and mortar strategy backed by 2,500 retail outlets. This strategy can't be easily replicated by Amazon because retailers are rightly wary of inviting the Amazon fox into their brick and mortar hen houses.
B&N, by comparison, has a broader palette of synergistic and welcoming partners to choose from, because unlike Amazon, B&N isn't hell bent on vertically disintermediating the retailing of all physical and digital goods in the universe. B&N hired a new global chief, and now stands ready, I predict, to execute an aggressive global expansion in Europe and elsewhere, in symbiotic partnership with allied retailers, that will solidify B&N as one of the top global brands for e-reading.
14. In the self-publishing gold rush, more money will be made in author services than in book sales
With the shift to self-publishing, writers must carry the publishing burdens once borne by traditional publishers, such as the cost of editing, proofing, book production, packaging, and distribution, as well as backoffice tasks such as accounts receivable, accounts payable and year-end tax reporting. Third parties are building businesses to serve the needs of indie authors. Most indie ebooks sell poorly at first, so it's not uncommon that writers will invest an amount of money in their books that far exceeds their near term return.
This is a problem. Writers want to publish books that reach readers, but to reach readers they must produce books that are as good or better than what the big NY publishers are putting out. This means writers must invest time and talent in their books, and if outside talent is required, it usually costs money. With this burgeoning demand for professional publishing services, thousands of service providers will open up virtual author services shops in 2013. The challenge for writers is to procure the highest quality services at the lowest cost. Plenty of scamsters and over-priced service providers will be standing by to help.
The smart Kristine Kathryn Rusch, blogging on December 12 in a posted titled, Writing Like it's 2009, likened what happening today to a gold rush:
Here's the thing: From 2008-2010, e-publishing on the early e-readers was a gold rush. And if you look at the history of any gold rush, you'll see a familiar pattern.I think Rusch nailed it.
A few people hit it big in an unexpected way. They make a small fortune. They broadcast the news of that fortune, and then hundreds, if not thousands, of people follow. They hook their horses to their wagons, drop everything, and head to the land of riches, expecting to become millionaires with very little work.
And what happens? Millionaires. Hundreds of them. Only those millionaires don't get rich panning for gold. They open the supply shops, they serve food to the miners, they supply blue jeans and work boots and equipment, hay for the horses and rooms to rest in at night.
It's not a coincidence that S&S [Simon & Schuster] has opened up an expensive do-it-yourself shop in indie-publishing land. It makes perfect sense. Think of S&S as the chain hotel who heard that there was a fortune to be made by offering rooms to miners who are too tired to pitch their own tents.
There's gold in them thar hills, folks. And the gold is for business people who know their way around a profit-and-loss statement.
By the way, scammers always show up in the middle of a gold rush. Scammers know they can make a fortune off the ignorant. We're in the scammer/chain hotel phase of this gold rush.
How can writers protect themselves? I have two recommendations:
1. Pinch Your Pennies - As I write in Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success, pinch your pennies. As a self published author, you're the publisher. You're running a business. The lifeblood of a business is profit, because profit generates cash. If you run out of cash, you go out of business. Since profit equals sales minus expenses, and sales are difficult to predict and often minimal, it's important to minimize expenses. DIY as much as possible, especially when you're starting out. Invest your sweat equity (your time and talent) first. If you can't afford editing, barter for editing, and leverage beta readers. Once you start earning a profit, then carefully reinvest. Never borrow money to finance your ebook publishing adventure. Never spend money you need to pay the mortgage or to put bread on your table.
2. Work directly with the individual providing your service - When you hire professionals (cover artist, editor, proofreader, marketing pro), hire the professional directly, so your money goes straight to them, and not to some author services firm who will farm the job out to someone then mark up the fee several-fold. At Smashwords, for example, we have a free autoresponder email service called "Mark's List," where I maintain a list of low-cost ebook formatters and cover designers (send an email to email@example.com), with prices starting around $50.00 (that's all!). You're hiring the freelancer directly. We don't get a referral fee, listing fee, commission or kickback, which means you're getting the service at-cost, as low as possible, and your money goes directly to the service provider you choose. Most of the service providers are fellow Smashwords authors.
Writers beware. This brings me to my next prediction.
15. Pearson/Penguin/Random House/Simon & Schuster will either cut bait on Author Solutions or ride this anchor to the bottom of the sea
In 2012, Pearson, the parent of Penguin, acquired Author Solutions (ASI), an author services company backed by Bertram Capital, a private equity firm in Silicon Valley. Author Solutions maintains a less-than-stellar reputation, right alongside fellow vanity publishing posterboy, PublishAmerica. Blogger Emily Suess has been running a series of damning posts for months at http://blog.emilysuess.com/tag/author-solutions/ where she exposes ASI's business practices.
Author Solutions is a provider of over-priced author services, and that's about the kindest description I can share. They earn 2/3 or more of their income selling over-priced services to authors, and these services are of nebulous value and invariably print-centric. According to Publishers Weekly, ASI's ebook sales accounted for only $1.3 million, or 1.3% of their $100 million in revenue for 2011, and that was with a staff of about 1,600 employees, 1,200 of whom are in the Philippines, where the bulk of their work is performed. By contrast, Smashwords will do around $15 million in ebook sales in 2012 with 1/100th the staff.
Author Solutions is not in the business of selling author books to readers. Instead, they're in the business of exploiting the dreams of newbie authors who don't know better. Pearson/Penguin's acquisition of ASI left me befuddled. Although Pearson/Penguin was smart to recognize that self-publishing represents a tremendous growth area, their acquisition of ASI – a company that helped put the "V" in Vanity – demonstrated an utter disregard for the best interests of writers. It demonstrated a deep-seated cynicism that valued the money in authors' pockets ahead of good business ethics. Newbie writers who don't know better are easily exploited by the heavy-handed sales tactics of ASI, as so aptly documented by Emily Suess. Yes, Pearson/Penguin can make money with ASI. But it's blood money. With the acquisition of ASI, Pearson/Penguin made the decision to become a blood sucking parasite. The indie author community raised a stink when the news came out. Did publishers listen?
The acquisition placed Pearson/Penguin in an inextricable pickle. As I blogged in July in my post titled, How a Traditional Publisher Could Harm a Writer's Career, if they want their $116 million acquisition to pay off, they'll have to continue the same author-fleecing services and business practices, and by doing so they'll tarnish the once sterling Penguin brand. In the proudest tradition of the great publishers, money should flow from book buyers to publisher to author, not from author to publisher. If Pearson/Penguin decided to clean up the act of ASI, they'd find themselves facing a print-centric business model that doesn't help authors, and the specter of huge operating losses due to what is likely ASI's $100 million operating expense overhead. It's a lose/lose situation, no matter how Pearson/Penguin proceeds.
But wait, there's more. On October 29, 2012, Pearson announced a deal that will help it divest itself of Penguin, and along with Penguin, the newly acquired ASI albatross, by merging it into a new joint venture with Bertlesmann's Random House division. Soon, to borrow a phrase from Douglas Adams, ASI will become "Somebody Else's Problem" when Random House gains majority ownership over Penguin/ASI. You'd think Random House would have been paying attention to the bad smell surrounding ASI.
And yet there's more. Another Big 6 publisher was asleep at the wheel. Despite all the author community outrage over the ASI acquisition, less than a month later, on November 27th, Simon & Schuster decided to launch its own self-publishing "imprint" called Archway Publishing - sporting a logo that proudly advertises it's powered by none other than Author Solutions. They're going to sell publishing packages priced up to $25,000. $25,000? How could Pearson/Penguin/Random House/Simon & Schuster make such a massive series of blunders? Do they really have so little respect for writers? The pattern is very disappointing for those of us who want to see the big publishers survive and thrive.
16. The Big 6 will become the Big 4 as bean counters take over the farm
Warning: I get a bit wonky with financial acronyms at the end of this one (that's what I get for going to business school).
Pearson, the UK media conglomerate parent of Penguin, and Bertelsmann, the German media conglomerate parent of Random House, agreed to merge Penguin and Random House into a joint venture in 2013, pending regulatory approval. I think the union will produce an ugly baby. The convoluted financial details contain a circus of financial machination hula-hoop acrobatics and if-then-what variables that only their proud investment banker parents could love.
The merger's benefit to authors, or to the employees of the publishers, is less clear. Ostensibly, the merger would give the larger combined firm more negotiating leverage against the channel, and specifically Amazon. I don't buy that, unless they're willing to pull their books from Amazon. Amazon will either laugh in their face and say no to their demands, or will say yes while it continues developing direct relationships with authors, thereby neutering publishers by denying them the sustenance of future authors.
Within a couple of years, it'll be game over for publishers who think they can push the channel around, because there will be hundreds of thousands of other high-quality indie-published books to take their place. I had a conversation earlier this week with a smart publishing industry veteran who told me, "Publishers created Amazon, so I don't know why they're acting so surprised now."
What the merger really says is that the shareholders, parent companies and executives of Big 6 publishers are starting to view their catalogs as no- or low-growth assets to be milked, when in fact they should instead be focused on growing the farm for future harvests. I expect them to eventually saddle the operation with more debt (their merger press release contains an option for that very outcome), and then merge and eliminate redundant operations (lay off employees in HR, finance, editing, marketing, sales, distribution, merge or eliminate imprints) to reduce costs so they can make the debt servicing expenses.
Each of the publishers is sitting on a goldmine of back catalog, ready to be milked. Perhaps the investment bankers will push a path forward for some publishers to stop or reduce their publishing exposure altogether, and instead become asset manager custodians of their backlists. They can abandon big print runs, move to POD, digitize their lists, focus on distribution and marketing, cut back on new title acquisitions, impose stricter reversion clauses upon authors so digital books never go out of print, and harvest the profits that will come from the reduced operating expenses of not having to be a publisher. Although this would create an insanely profitable business for their shareholders and debt holders, it would also mark a capitulation of sorts.
None of these moves help authors at a time when authors want more support from their publishers, not less. It also limits employment opportunities for the brain trust of passionate book lovers who work at the big publishers, and who now risk having their livelihoods eliminated in the name of "strategic realignments" and other unpleasant euphemisms for lost jobs.
Expect the remaining Big 4 to get frisky with the mating and M&A dance. I also wouldn't be surprised to see one or more of the remaining Big 4 acquired by private equity firms. Private equity firms typically acquire operating companies with mostly borrowed cash, and then saddle the company with debt. With little of their own money invested, the private equity firms generate high ROE – return on equity, even when the company's profits drop under the weight of debt servicing obligations.
They'll cut costs to raise EBITDA, another favorite and dehumanizing finance metric that stands for Earnings Before Interest, Taxes and Depreciation. Finance folk love EBITDA as a tool to determine how much debt they can load on a company before they choke it to death with debt payments. More debt means higher ROE, but if they pile on too much debt, the company dies. Think of EBITDA calculations as a form of auto-erotic asphyxiation administered by bean counters. It's a risky business. These financial metrics, when abused, are dehumanizing and will sap the soul of publishers. Watch out, bean counters are in control now.
17. Stigma of Big 6 (or Big 4 or Big 3) publishers will increase as prior stigma of self-publishing evaporates
The stigma of self-publishing is disappearing. Each week, indie authors are hitting the ebook bestseller lists at all the major ebook retailers, as well as lists maintained by the New York Times, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, GalleyCat, and Digital Book World. A year ago, this was rare. A year from now, it'll be commonplace. The future bestsellers of tomorrow are the indie authors of today. Indie authors are poised to take more market share in 2013 as the next generation of writers turns its back on traditional publishing.
Five years ago, back in the dark ages of publishing, self-publishing was seen as the option of last resort. It was seen as the last refuge for failed authors. Publishers controlled the printing press, the access to distribution, and the knowledge to professionally publish, which made authors entirely dependent upon publishing gatekeepers. Today, these three elements of professional publishing are fully democratized.
Indie authors now have the tools to publish faster, smarter and more effectively than traditional publishers. Many indies are publishing books of equal or greater quality than what's put out by large publishers. Indies are pricing more aggressively, and as a result they're building bigger platforms faster than many traditionally published authors who are now disadvantaged. As ebooks continue to take market share, and as physical brick and mortar shelf space disappears, the allure of traditional publishers will fade further.
At the same time the stigma of self-publishing evaporates, the stigma of traditional publishing is increasing. Authors are questioning what big publishers can do for them that they can't already do on their own. Authors are realizing, as mentioned earlier, that the traditional publisher business practices (high prices, slow release schedules, limited marketing support, etc) can actually harm a writer's career.
Traditional publishers are also showing themselves skilled at adding their own self-inflicted injuries. Traditional publishing's cynical misadventure into vanity publishing will stain the reputation of all big NY publishers, even those that haven't made the same mistakes. That's sad, because I think the world of books would be better off if we could maintain a healthy and vibrant ecosystem of large publishers in addition to smaller ones.
18. EPUB 3 will disappoint
EPUB 3, ratified in October 2011 as the next generation of the popular open industry EPUB file format, is likely to see slow and disappointing adoption in 2013.
The new standard offers a range of promising benefits, such as improved book navigation, improved language support, support for fixed format books, more sophisticated metadata management, and improved support for multimedia. Unfortunately, such promised benefits come at a cost to authors, publishers, device makers, distributors, ebook stores, and consumers in the form of increased complexity, new workflows and questionable backward-compatibility between EPUB3 books and prior reading systems.
If the marketplace concludes that the benefits of EPUB 3 outweigh the costs, it'll gain traction in the marketplace. Otherwise, we'll either see slow adoption, increased file format fragmentation, or proprietary file formats if major retailers decide they can support these next-generation capabilities more effectively on their own, outside the purview of the IDPF standard-setting body. If EPUB 3 increases production complexity for authors, publishers and the digital supply chain, we could also see a decline in the number of titles released. As a member of the IDPF, the standards-setting organization that manages EPUB, we support standards, though I do have cost/benefit concerns about the transition.
19. Ebook subscription offerings will face uphill slog
In 2012 there was a wave of promising startups talking about creating the "Spotify of Ebooks," or the "Netflix of ebooks." I admit, at first the notion of an all-you-can-read smorgasbord of reading material held appeal to me. I'm always interested to consider new models of book distribution that help us achieve our overall mission of connecting our authors with readers. However, as the year progressed and new subscription hopefuls came to the fore, I found my enthusiasm waning.
Ebook prices are declining as authors and publishers compete on price. Indies have released thousands of high-quality books priced at FREE, more than any voracious book lover could ever read in a lifetime. Traditional publishers are dropping their ebook prices to become more competitive – even independent of the DoJ's ill-conceived crackdown on agency publishers. Ebooks are already free or dirt cheap, and likely to become cheaper as big publishers drop their prices, so the potential advantages of an all-you-can-read buffet are diminishing. The challenge for some enterprising entrepreneur is to find a method of connecting books to readers that's more effective and profitable than what the major retailers are already doing, and that's a tall order because the retailers are doing an awesome job.
20. Indie authors poised to capture a growing percentage of library ebook market
Libraries are the forgotten stepchildren of the publishing industry, yet they operate 230,000 public library buildings across the globe where patrons come to find, read and enjoy books. Libraries purchase hundreds of millions of dollars worth of books each year, making books available and discoverable to all readers. They promote a culture of reading among readers which benefits the entire publishing industry, and they're where millions of readers first discover their new favorite authors. Libraries are engines for book discovery and consumer retail purchases.
Traditional publishers have been wary to distribute ebooks to libraries, for fear that library ebook sales will cannibalize publishers' ebook and printbook sales through traditional retail channels. As a result, many publishers refuse to sell to libraries, or will sell to libraries under onerous terms.
Publishers' refusal to provide adequate ebook support for libraries has created a window of opportunity for self-published authors, and it's a window we're looking to pry open even further in 2013. In 2012, we signed distribution deals with the leading library aggregators. We launched Library Direct, which this month alone will sell and deliver nearly $200,000 worth of ebooks to libraries. Self-published authors will find their books in greater demand in 2013 as libraries implement ebook checkout systems.
21. Indie ebooks will start driving more film & television projects
Books have long been a popular source of material for film and television producers. A proven bestseller means that audiences find the story compelling, and this increases the appeal to film and television producers for a couple of reasons:
1. A successful book creates a built-in audience more likely to want to view the film or television derivative.
2. A successful book helps lower the risk to the film or television producer because the story has already proven itself an audience-pleaser in the marketplace.A film or TV deal is great news for the author and publisher, because it sells more books. It helps more prospective readers discover the story or want to read the story again. The dynamic between publishers and film and television producers is not perfect, however. Most books come out 12 months or later after the publisher acquires it, so if a book is sold to film or television before publication, the film/television producers face the risk that they begin production only to learn later that the story didn't resonate with readers.
If you believe that indies are the future of publishing, and that the world's best and most commercially successful future stories will come from indies, then it's inevitable indie authors will begin to fill the production pipelines of film and television producers. Indie authors – not hamstrung by the slow book release schedules of traditional publishers – are reaching the market instantly with stories better tuned to audience desires. Indies achieve instant market feedback in the form of sales data, reviews and retailer bestseller rank. Expect many indie ebooks to be optioned for film and television in 2013. Maybe one or more of the 9,000+ titles uploaded to Smashwords in the last 30 days will find its way to a theater near you.
Thanks for reading. I think this was my longest post ever. Believe it or not, I had other predictions I left out regarding the ebook supply chain, retailer-operated publishing platforms, and more. There's too much. Back to work now. Prior to year-end, I'll do a Smashwords 2012 year in review.
Just for kicks, here are couple of my past predictions:
2011 Predictions at GalleyCat by Mark Coker (published Dec 28, 2010)
10-Year Predictions at GalleyCat By Mark Coker (published Jan 4 2010)
Did my crystal ball miss anything? Please add your own predictions below.


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The 'Sink-Urinal' Saves Water, Encourages Men To Wash Hands
In a blog series we're calling "Weekly Innovation," we'll explore an interesting idea, design or product that you may not have heard of yet. (Have an innovation to share? Use this quick form.)
A Latvian designer named Kaspars Jursons is trying to help solve European water shortages by redesigning the men's restroom. His new urinal design includes a tap and sink right over it.
"It's not just a fancy piece of art," he says. "The idea is about function and consumption. You are washing your hands in the sink on top of the urinal, and the same water that's running is also used to flush. You don't have to use water twice, like when you use the urinal and wash your hands in separate sink."
The design, called Stand, sells for about $590 per unit. They're getting manufactured on a small production line and have already sold to buyers in Norway, Germany, Russia, Poland and Jursons' home country, Latvia.
Several sink-urinals are currently installed in a concert venue in Riga, Latvia, where Jursons reports they have worked smoothly and saved thousands of liters of water.
The tap is hands-free and sensor-activated, and Jursons says having the sink right over the urinal gives it another feature: an in-your-face reminder to wash your hands.
When asked whether folks might find the sink and the urinal a little too close for comfort, Jursons says, "It is more suitable for hygiene than just a urinal and then guys who don't wash [their] hands."
Ladies, if you think your restrooms deserve new design concepts too, stay tuned. Jursons says his next concept is a sink-toilet combo that not only saves water, but saves a lot of bathroom space.

subset: commoncrawl


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The American Ashton Eaton can call himself the greatest athlete in the world, today.
With 8,869 points, Eaton took the gold medal in the decathlon. His American teammate Trey Hardee took the silver with 8,671 points.
If you're not familiar, the decathlon is the closest the sports world comes to a standardized test in athletic ability. It spans two days and 10 events, including the 100 meter dash, the long jump, the high jump and the shot put.
The final event is the 1,500 meter run. It's a grueling final metric mile. Eaton finished it easily with a time of 4:35.
CBS Sports has a good roundup of all the events and how they have gone over the past two days.
After two days and ten events, Eaton can now call himself the world's greatest athlete.
Copyright 2020 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.


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Update at 4 p.m. ET: Commissioners Approve Rules Proposal
By a vote of 3-2, the FCC has approved the initial proposal to allow passengers on U.S. flights to use their cellphones for voice calls — something that's been forbidden on U.S. flights. The vote opens the door for further consideration by the commission's five members, as well as comments from the public.
"We need to update this rule for the benefit of consumers and to reflect accurately changing technical realities," FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler wrote in a statement after the vote. "I urge support for an effort to start this process."
The new proposed rules will be published on the FCC website soon, possibly as early as Friday or early next week.
Another federal agency also weighed in on the issue today — the Department of Transportation. Here's what Secretary Anthony Foxx had to say:
"Over the past few weeks, we have heard of concerns raised by airlines, travelers, flight attendants, members of Congress and others who are all troubled over the idea of passengers talking on cell phones in flight – and I am concerned about this possibility as well.
"As the FCC has said before, their sole role on this issue is to examine the technical feasibility of the use of mobile devices in flight. We believe USDOT's role, as part of our Aviation Consumer Protection Authority, is to determine if allowing these calls is fair to consumers."
Foxx said that the DOT would now begin its own process of review and public comment on the idea.
Update at 5 p.m. ET: Summary Of Changes
From the FCC comes a "notice of proposed rulemaking" that seeks comment on the following proposals:
The agency will also seek comment on related matters, including "the potential impact of the proposals on public safety and national security."
Our original post continues:
Americans will soon have a chance to comment on the Federal Communications Commission's proposal to allow in-flight cellphone use on commercial airliners. The agency held an open meeting Thursday to discuss the new rules.
Today's vote is an initial step toward approving phone use during flights, a process that would most likely take more than a year. The FCC's five commissioners will vote on the proposal today; if it's approved, it would then be posted online for public comment, likely for three months or more.
If the proposed rules gain final approval, airlines would then decide if they want to allow passengers to use phones during flights. (Some have already said they won't offer the service.)
Airlines that want to allow phone use would need to license bandwidth for equipment called a pico cell, essentially a base station that handles wireless data and calls. Then they would need safety approval from the Federal Aviation Administration as well.
Reaction to the FCC's plan has been mixed, at best.
A recent AP poll found that only 19 percent of Americans support the idea of talking on phones during flights. A large group was neutral, and 48 percent were against it. But the opposition was greater among people who have flown in the past year, with 59 percent saying calls shouldn't be allowed.
Our post on the story last month generated this top-rated comment:
"Zombies in their cars, zombies on the street, now zombies in the air. There is no escape," wrote a reader named harry guss.
And in response to another comment's hypothetical phone call from an airline passenger named "Alice," a reader named Lencho wrote, "This is when I reach over and yank the cell phone out Alice's hand and run to the rest room and flush the dang thing down the toilet."
In an editorial for USA Today that was timed to coincide with today's session, FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler sought to ease consumers' concerns. He noted that the proposed change is still in the early stages.
And he said he doesn't want to sit next to anyone who's on the phone during a flight, either.
"I certainly empathize with those who don't want to be stuck listening to loud phone conversations in-flight," Wheeler wrote. "Because the airline can block or otherwise control voice calls, there is a technical solution to this concern."
That echoes a recent post on the FCC's blog by Julius Knapp, head of the Office of Engineering, and Roger Sherman, acting chief of the Wireless Telecommunications Bureau.
The pair stressed that even if the proposal is approved, there are several levels of cellphone acceptance between a relatively silent cabin and endless chatter from passengers telling their families about their trip or checking in with the office.
Those incremental levels are reflected in the policies of European carriers that already allow passengers to use mobile phones during flights.
Some have instituted data-only restrictions. Others, such as Virgin Atlantic, place limits on voice calls and charge a steep premium — more than a dollar a minute — for using the service.
As we noted in November, Wheeler is a former cellphone industry lobbyist whose move to allow more use of phones in plane cabins was welcomed by the Telecommunications Industry Association.
Copyright 2021 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.


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elder vanderbilt
I have republished Russell Conwell's Acres of Diamonds below. Conwell delivered this speech over 5,000 times between 1900 and 1925. It is one of the greatest pieces on finding opportunity that I have ever read. –Harrison Acres of Diamonds When...
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Having a goal or vision will propel you towards greater career success and happiness. Without a purpose, you will find yourself depressed and ultimately fail to achieve your goals. Do not subscribe to the unrealistic problem that you should never have problems, but instead regard problems as part of your overall growth strategy.
Understanding what you do for a living is very important for your career. You should understand the generality of your specific profession. You and your career are a product. You need to know where and how to market yourself in the best way possible. You need to be relevant and understand the skills you are offering. Being a relevant product is essential for your success. It's easy to be relevant when you understand what you are doing and what purpose you serve. Being relevant is more than just getting a job. Being relevant also relates to serving the employers with the skills they need. You need to understand your market and what your customers want. This is the way to stay employed, and it is also the means to continual improvement.
In this article, Harrison advises you to live the lives you wish to have, do the jobs you want to do, and basically live your dreams to your best possible ability. Life is fleeting and no one knows what tomorrow holds. So Harrison puts forward certain questions – when are you going to start living the life you want and when are you going to take charge of your life. The time to have the career you want is right now, not tomorrow, and not later. You need to take charge of your career and life and no one else is going to do it for you. Your entire life and the quality of it is a product of your decisions. You can have, do, or be anything you want. Do not create alibis for making comprises in life. What separates the best and the happiest people is the ability to stop to making excuses and Harrison wants you to be this person.
The ability to fit into your work environment is among the most important parts of obtaining and retaining a job, even more so than your skill level. Fitting in means nothing more than being comfortable in one's work environment, and making others similarly comfortable. Employers want to hire people who will embrace their approach to business and the world on physical and moral levels, so you must strive to fit in with their worldview.
You need to provide people what they want, otherwise you will not have a job. Although they might not always be the most desirable kinds of jobs, certain jobs always exist because they provide services that people will always require. The only secret to continual employment is to provide a service that people always need; if you do this, and nothing else, you will always find yourself employed. Give people what they want.
Your greatest successes will come from some of the smallest actions in terms of meeting people. You will cause a "stacking effect" the more you meet and connect with people; conversely, people cannot connect with you when you are withdrawn and nothing will happen. You must do everything in your power to connect with as many people as possible.
Make sure that you are involved in groups that focus on positive things. Your success in life depends on your ability to focus on the outcomes you want, and the focus of the groups with which you associate will in turn shape your own focus. You must endeavor to always choose groups with a positive focus.
The best way to attain your goal is through small, incremental steps on which you can build. Establish a routine, and make sure you are consistently working towards some kind of goal. Start small, and always build upon what you have done before. Most people fail to achieve their goals because they believe everything should happen quickly and at the same time, instead of progressively building upon their past achievements.
Your ability to help people will determine the extent of your success; the more powerful and effective your help, the greater rewards you will receive. One of the rarest and most profound achievements is to follow through on your goals and create a paradigm-shifting idea. The more revolutionary your work, the more people you will affect and the more memorable of a career you will have.
When myriad candidates are applying to limited positions, practicing unusual tactics in your job hunt will prove far more helpful than following the established routine and waiting for positions to come to you. Much like in military strategy, well-planned and unconventional moves can help you conquer your goals without suffering significant losses. You can land an excellent position by focusing on companies' needs, rather than depending on job and recruiting advertisements.
Everything you do is a form of preparation for your job interviews, as you are always under some form of scrutiny. The best employees can always spot other good employees, and you cannot "fake it"; merely doing a good job in your work is a form of interview preparation. Always put your all into your work, therefore, even if you do not have long-term plans to remain at your current employment. Switch jobs as infrequently as possible. The time to prepare for a job search is before you even realize that you need to do so.
The most successful people in the world share the common characteristic of sharing, or concentrating on the value that they give back to others rather than on their own growth and profit. Focusing on yourself never leads to long-term success, but leads instead to unhappiness as well as emotional and financial challenges. Your greatest consideration, therefore, should be how you can contribute to others, and how your actions can impact their lives.
In this article Harrison discusses the importance of 'energy' over technical skills. When people are hiring you they are purchasing your "energy" more than they are purchasing your technical skills. They are interested in your ability to influence the world around you through your energy. When you are marketing yourself and seeking a job, or working in a job, there are essentially two things you are marketing. You are marketing your technical skills, but more importantly you are marketing an intangible sort of energy. The most successful people have mastered the art of projecting positive energy. The better your energy, the more employable you will be and the farther you will go.
In this article Harrison discusses that the meaning you give to things will control the quality of your life. How we feel about ourselves is all due to what we tell ourselves certain things will mean. The meaning you give things is crucial for your career success. You need to choose meanings that make you stronger. You need to ensure you interpret things in a way that serves you and does not hurt you. You need to reach your full potential. Don't classify yourself as someone who is not fit to succeed at the level at which you're capable. You need to take charge of your mind to have the career and the life that you deserve.
In this article Harrison explains how you can ensure success in your career by externalizing your opponents. Your job is like a game; if you work hard, play by the rules of the company and are seen as part of the team you will be viewed as a valuable player for the company. The most significant part of any game is the presence of an opponent. Don't look for an opponent among your co-workers. Never speak negatively of your team members. Instead, concentrate on the external opponents. External opponents bring you and the team closer as you work towards a common goal. In order for you and your company to succeed it is important to have an external opponent. Harrison advises people to consistently work hard and not participate in the politics. This is a sure way to score big in your career.
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In this article Harrison discusses how people who stand for something always do better than those who do not. Companies who stand for something always do better than companies who do not. The most successful companies not only stand for something, but they are completely consistent with their core principles. This is what keeps them going and this is what makes them successful. One of the largest problems that people have in their careers is when they diverge from what they are good at. When you do not stand for something, you divert from your true strength. Everything begins to crumble and slowly fall apart when you are not doing something that you are really good at. The biggest success comes when you stand for something and are good at it.
True self-esteem comes from within, not from the acceptance of others. When your sense of worth comes from within, you free yourself from comparisons with others and will enjoy a greater sense of internal security. You will no longer be bogged down by the experiences of others and can become much more self-reliant.
Do not be distracted by your insecurities and doubts, or you will never achieve success because you will not allow it to happen. Focus only on the message about your skills and capabilities. Identify your goals and create a gameplan, and fill your mind with positive and hopeful messages that will drive you towards said goal.
You must seek to understand the different beliefs of the people around you. Everyone holds their own unique set of beliefs, and attempts to question or change them will only work to your peril. Therefore, you must seek out and work with people who share your beliefs. When people perceive you as having beliefs similar to their own, they will be much more likely to accept you and you will ultimately achieve more career success and happiness.
Education is a gigantic industry, and there are many employers for whom you can work. One of the most rewarding things about is teaching career is your ability to draw upon and profit from your experience. The ideal way to find a teaching position is to go directly to the source of where you hope to work.
In this article Harrison discusses the role of criticism in helping a person grow, evolve, and excel. People generally want to avoid criticism. Many people will do everything within their power to find the "right" people who will say positive things about them and give them approval. But this does not help. You need to make sure that when you ask people around you for constructive criticism, you are doing it so that you can make changes and improve your skills, methods, and understanding of your job. Most people fail to learn from criticism and therefore cannot adapt in response to it. You need to make sure you incorporate criticism into what you do to ensure that you become a better person.
If you want to rise to the top, you need to create as much value as possible. The message is also pretty simple: the more value you create, generally, the greater your fall will ultimately be when you stop creating value.
In this article Harrison offers an insight into the working of the subconscious mind in order to get success in one's career and life. Visualizing the result beforehand is a powerful way to get what you want. According to Harrison, programming the mind through repetition almost tilts the results in your favor. Writing down goals and reading and visualizing them every day will make your dream a reality. Additionally, you can also charge up your mind through meditation and self-hypnosis. By positively influencing the mind, with the help of positive inputs, you can keep your subconscious state happy and harmonious too.
Pursue your own dreams and become the person that you want to be, rather than what others might want. Living life according to the wishes of others is meaningless, and will bring you neither happiness nor success. Others do not understand your capabilities, goals, and interests as well as you do, hence their opinions should be your least concern. Have faith in your own potential greatness, and you will develop the confidence to act upon it and be the person that you really want to be, achieving true fulfillment.
Working with a recruiter can open more doors, and help you can jobs more effectively than if you were tracking down openings on your own. A poor recruiter, however, can leave you even worse off than you were on your own. Be very careful about the recruiter with whom your work, and try to find one that specializes in your niche or field.
In this article Harrison discusses how your brain is the single greatest determinant of what will end up happening to you in your career and life. Many of the common problems that people suffer from, such as distraction, worry, anger and more, are often related to a brain malfunction. When your brain works right, then you work right. If your brain has trouble, then you are likely to have trouble. Focusing on what you love, being grateful and meditation can help your brain. There are psychological things that are likely influencing you, and there may even be organic things that are influencing what is happening with you. Getting to the bottom of your brain and what is going on inside of you may be among the most effective career moves you will ever make.
In this article Harrison discusses how persistent pursuit of something you believe in, against all obstacles, is one of the most important keys to success. So many of us just decide at some point not to push through and not to keep going even when a little bit of extra effort would push us through. The secret to being incredibly good at everything is pushing through and getting better and better when others around you are quitting. Even while hiring, employers want experts and people who are the best at what they are doing–they do not want dabblers. They want to hire the person who is incredibly committed to a job and has persisted against odds in one direction when others have given up.
In this article Harrison suggests that you actually may be safer getting a job without the help of family or friends. It is exceedingly rare that a friend or family member will ever be able to get you a position. They may not even want to help you get a job for various reasons. Their involvement in your job search may actually hurt you. The organization may actually look upon you negatively if you try to use a friend or family member to get a job. So going through a close contact is often counterproductive to your job search. Even if you get a position through a friend or family member, you could harm your relationship with that person in the process. Your friend or family member's act of kindness may ultimately unbalance your relationship. The risks involved in this kind of job far outweigh the potential rewards.
A powerful sense of self will make all the difference in your life. You must understand that your sense of yourself and your capabilities come from inside of you, not from the external forces that have brought you to your current place in life. What you feel internally might be completely different from what the world is telling you, and you must learn to focus on the former rather than the latter.
In this article, Harrison explains the importance of making an effort in your job which is way above what is expected of you. When you have been given certain responsibilities, it means that someone is dependent on you for certain things. When you fulfill these duties far more efficiently, put in a lot more time and effort, and even stay back on weekends and holidays to complete or do extra work, your employers get the message that you are sharing their burden of pressures with them and begin to place tremendous trust in you. This is what paves the path to your promotion and growth in the company. Harrison believes that you need to develop the correct attitude and possess an extraordinary work ethic to thrive in the job you do.
In this article Harrison discusses how resisting change and not taking necessary and relevant action can be the biggest obstacles to a better career and better life. Resistance is something that prevents most people from ever changing. Resisting change can be highly damaging to your growth in your career and life. Instead of allowing your life to be controlled by external circumstances, choose to take action and bring about a change. Conduct a brutal self analysis if needed, to clear the blocks you have in your mind and to bring about change that is necessary. Most people give up. They do not persist. You need strategies and beliefs that will allow you to persist and persevere, so that you can change. The best strategy is to be focused, and this focus will help you overcome the resistance you face whenever you make an effort to begin changing.
The past does not dictate the future, so you should not use inductive reasoning to make conclusions about your life or career. Recognize when you are making incorrect conclusions based on past events, and switch to deductive reasoning in which you are not limited by the past. You will find your conclusions to be much more accurate, and you will succeed as a result.
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Colorado is set to become the first U.S. state to regulate and tax sales of recreational marijuana, after lawmakers approved several bills that set business standards and rules. Legislators expect enforcement of the rules to be paid for by two taxes on marijuana — a 15 percent excise tax, and a 10 percent sales tax.
Other measures included in the package set limits on how much marijuana visitors to Colorado can buy (a quarter of an ounce), as well as a limit on how many cannabis plants a private citizen can grow (six).
Gov. John Hickenlooper has indicated he will sign the legislation, according to The Denver Post. Colorado voters first approved the legalization of pot for recreational use by people over age 21 in a ballot initiative last November.
Voters adopted a similar measure in Washington state, where plans for regulation and taxation are still being formed.
"The first legal marijuana should be on sale in Washington in March 2014," reports the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, "and Colorado will have its cannabis stores open as soon as Jan. 1."
Like all new Colorado taxes, voters must approve the new taxation system in a ballot initiative this autumn.
Other states are already taxing pot, but those levies cover medical marijuana. California reportedly raises more than $100 million a year on such sales.
The Colorado legislation adopted Wednesday also includes a requirement that "pot must be sold in child-resistant packages with labels that specify potency," The Post reports. "Edible marijuana products will have serving-size limits."
Copyright 2021 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.


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Uploaded by chuckchillout8
Life Sucks explores the difference between Ren and Stimpy's outlook on life. They each look at the world and see the same evidence yet judge it in opposite ways. Stimpy is an optimist and Ren is a pessimist. In Life Sucks, Ren realizes it's his duty to cure Stimpy of his naivety and he takes him on a journey through biology, religion, history and evolution in an attempt to make him wake up and smell the coffee.
This is just one sequence from the cartoon. Ren tells Stimpy a story from the history of his religion, a story of people's devotion to the divine Cat-Jesus. Richard Pursel and I concocted this warm little Ren and Stimpy scene.
This is the story of the Children's Crusade, which many history books say actually happened.
I asked the great Nick Cross to draw the sequence and he did an amazing thing. He drew Ren and Stimpy in one style and the Children's Crusade in the style of Mary Blair's Golden Books.
Working with Nick is great. I get to scribble out some ideas for the compositions I want and he takes them and turns them into beautiful finished illustrations in his own style.
I can't tell you how fun it is to work with rare stars like Nick or Katie or Helder and a small handful of stylists, who give me back better than what I give them and then let me add my name to the work. How unusual it is today to find artists whose drawings have a point of view! I imagine the old days when Clampett and Avery were surrounded by nothing but top talents, each with their own styles, already trained and all they had to do was direct them. No bland scenes, no on-model crap. Heaven!
The multi-talented Eric Bauza edited and did the sound fx and music for the animatic.
Take a look at this and tell me if you'd like to see the whole of Life Sucks produced as a straight to DVD release.
Later this week I'll put up another clip from Life Sucks. Keep your eyes peeled!


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K9data.com | Labrador Retriever |
Genetic information for Test81682 Mia x Ringo
Number of offspring in database: 0
Number of full siblings in database: 0
The COI (Coefficient of Inbreeding) is calculated up to a maximum of 12 generations. However, if a generation is found where fewer than 75% of the dogs in that generation are known, the calculation stops just short of that generation. So if all dogs are known in the 5th generation but only half of them are known in the 6th generation, a 5-generation COI will be calculated. For dogs with more than 10 generations of pedigree information available, a 10-generation COI is also calculated for comparison and statistical purposes.
The COI is calculated entirely from the pedigree information present in the database, so if there are inaccuracies in the pedigree, there will also be inaccuracies in the COI. COIs are calculated in batches about once a month, so the current COI may not reflect recent pedigree changes. Accuracy of the COI is not guaranteed.
10-generation COI | 3.32% |
12-generation COI | 4.54% |
* Breed average is calculated by averaging the 10-generation COIs of dogs in k9data born after the year 2000.
Top 5 ancestors contributing to COI, in order of influence:
AM CH Devonshires Darjeeling | 0.84% |
Am CH Dickendall Arnold | 0.48% |
BISS Am CH Dickendall Davaron Gable | 0.36% |
GB Ch Kupros Master Mariner | 0.35% |
Eng SH CH Sandylands Gad-About | 0.33% |
Don't know how to interpret this information? Read this article about population genetics for breeders.


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Here at Tennis court Maintenance, we offer a number of services for when your tennis surface has become damaged, repairs can be carried out promptly to prevent any further safety hazards. If you're in need of experienced and friendly tennis court repair installers in Milngavie then look no further than us.
When tennis courts get used a lot and take a battering from the weather, it can often lead to surface damage which needs to be repaired as soon as possible. Many schools and clubs in Milngavie G62 8 have sports courts which get overused and are not maintained as well as they should be, this can mean that the facility becomes worn out and unsafe for use and a tennis court repair is needed. Depending on the surface type and the severity of the damage, the repair process can differ for each facility:
Macadam Court - Tennis court repairs for macadam courts can include recapping or resurfacing a damaged area which has been worn down by heavy use or weathering.
Polymeric Rubber Surfacing - Polymeric courts can need recapping of the EPDM rubber surfacing as part of the repair process.
Artificial Grass - If synthetic turf courts become compacted with dirt and debris, decompaction of sand infill may be required, as well as seam repairs if the artificial grass seams become broken or damaged.
Synthetic Clay Surfacing - New infill can be applied for a more stable and smooth surface.
We can also offer other reactive maintenance services including tennis court repainting in Milngavie for facilities which have lost their anti-slip qualities or coloured design. Please feel free to fill in our contact form if you'd like to speak to one of our experts about the costs of repairing tennis courts and maintenance processes.
Whenever you have any sports surface repair maintenance carried out, it's important that you choose a reliable contractor in Milngavie G62 8 and surrounding areas, with experience in the sport surfacing industry.
This will ensure that your facility is repaired to the best possible standards and that it is safe and suitable for use once the work has been completed. Any repairs to a damaged surface should restore the facility back to its original playing characteristics to give players the best sporting experience while using the facility.
The application of anti-slip paint coatings can also be included as part of the reparation process to give the surfacing a fresh new look and to enhance the safety qualities. Non-slip colour coatings can be applied to the macadam hard court or polymeric courts in either acrylic or polyurethane paint. These specialist paints are mixed with a combination of aluminium oxide and sand to achieve the non-slip qualities for the facility, and they can be applied in a range of bright colours including red, blue and green.
If you think your sports surfacing might be in need of some repairs, we can carry out tennis court testing in Milngavie to check performance, safety and drainage on the surface. For more details on testing please click here http://www.tenniscourtmaintenance.co/testing/east-dunbartonshire/milngavie This will then help us to decide on the best course of action in terms of maintenance.
To get some advice or pricing details about a sports surfacing reparation for your sports facility, please fill in our contact form and we'll get back to you with some professional advice.
The cost to fix sports courts can vary depending on area size and the severity of the damage. If you've got a large area which needs to be fixed the price of repairs will generally cost more than if it was just a small area. You can reduce the need for costly tennis court repairs by carrying out regular maintenance.
By carrying out cleaning, painting and regular inspections you can strengthen the surfacing and find damages early on so that you can get them repaired. If you leave problems to develop on the surface, they could become much worse and require expensive repairs like resurfacing.
Our experts will try to keep our prices as low as possible whilst carrying out professional services. To learn more about our services please visit this page http://www.tenniscourtmaintenance.co/east-dunbartonshire/milngavie Since we only use specialist materials and complete our services to a high standard, we may not be the cheapest contractors out there but we do strive to be the best. If you require more information on tennis court repair costs, please don't hesitate to contact our team.
If you're wondering how to repair tennis courts, you should follow these steps:
Thoroughly clean the tennis surface and apply moss and algae treatment if required
Fill cracks with emerald stone mixed with polyurethane binder
Install a polyurethane binder across the surfacing if required as a way to strengthen the existing surface
Apply anti-slip paint if necessary to strengthen the surfacing and improve slip resistance
Install line markings
This complete guide to repairing sports courts can dramatically improve the overall look and play of the facility, however, if your surfacing is in very bad condition you may need to have a look at having a full resurface.
In order to prevent repairs on your sports surface, we recommend carrying out regular sports court maintenance. By cleaning the facility regularly you are able to fight against contamination such as moss and algae.
It is also advised to complete routine inspections to look for any cracks and damages to the surface. For more information on refurbishment please click here http://www.tenniscourtmaintenance.co/refurbishment/east-dunbartonshire/milngavie By finding these type of problems early on you can reduce the price to fix the sports facility.
We can carry out sports facility maintenance to prevent repairs being needed including cleaning and painting of hard courts. If you would like to discuss tennis court repair in Milngavie G62 8 in more detail, please fill in our enquiry form. Our experts will get back to you as soon as possible with a quote and information on maintenance and tennis court repairs.
Tennis Court Cleaning in Milngavie - https://www.tenniscourtmaintenance.co/cleaning/east-dunbartonshire/milngavie
Tennis Court Repainting in Milngavie - https://www.tenniscourtmaintenance.co/repainting/east-dunbartonshire/milngavie
Tennis Court Resurfacing in Milngavie - https://www.tenniscourtmaintenance.co/resurfacing/east-dunbartonshire/milngavie
Tennis Court Relining in Milngavie - https://www.tenniscourtmaintenance.co/relining/east-dunbartonshire/milngavie
Tennis Court Testing in Milngavie - https://www.tenniscourtmaintenance.co/testing/east-dunbartonshire/milngavie
Tennis Court Rejuvenation in Milngavie - https://www.tenniscourtmaintenance.co/rejuvenation/east-dunbartonshire/milngavie
Tennis Court Renovation in Milngavie - https://www.tenniscourtmaintenance.co/renovation/east-dunbartonshire/milngavie
Tennis Court Refurbishment in Milngavie - https://www.tenniscourtmaintenance.co/refurbishment/east-dunbartonshire/milngavie
We cover Milngavie (East Dunbartonshire)


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Hyun-Jin Ryu (9-3, 3.14) vs. Travis Wood (7-7, 2.79)
Late lunch baseball! Heck, just blow off the rest of the day and take in the game. (Or stay at your desk and look busy while listening to the game, like I plan to do.)
Did you know Travis Wood was an All-Star this year? I sure didn't. You know who should have been an All-Star (besides Puig)? Hyun-Jin Ryu. He's given the Dodgers a quality start in 15 out of 20 outings. And his ERA is Pi. That's just awesome.
I think I'll have pie with my late lunch.
What's this?
Hanley Ramirez and Carl Crawford out of lineup today.
— Ken Gurnick (@kengurnick) August 2, 2013
Punto at SS, Van Slyke in LF. Puig cleanup.
— Ken Gurnick (@kengurnick) August 2, 2013
Punto instead of Hanley?* I may have just lost my appetite.
Yes, I know it's just a scheduled day off.


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Physical punishment in childhood tied to health woes as adults
(HealthDay)—Children whose parents use "harsh" physical punishment such as slapping or shoving may end up in relatively poorer physical health as adults, a new study suggests.
Researchers found that of more than 34,000 U.S. adults in a government health study, those who said they were harshly disciplined as kids had slightly higher risks of obesity, arthritis and heart disease.
Harsh punishment was defined as being hit, slapped, pushed or grabbed at least sometimes.
The findings, published online July 15 and in the August print issue of Pediatrics, do not prove that physical punishment, itself, affects kids' long-term health.
"It's an association. We can't say the punishment is causing the physical health problems," said lead researcher Tracie Afifi, of the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg, Canada.
But, she added, the findings add to evidence that physical punishment can harm kids. A number of studies have linked such punishment—even spanking—with problems such as aggressive behavior and poorer emotional well-being.
"Kids need discipline," Afifi said. "But it shouldn't involve physical force."
The findings are based on 34,226 U.S. adults who took part in a government health study in 2004 and 2005. Just under 4 percent fit the definition of being harshly punished as kids.
Overall, their rate of obesity was higher, compared to adults who reported no harsh physical punishment: about 31 percent, versus 26 percent. They also had higher rates of arthritis (22.5 percent, versus 20 percent) and heart disease (9 percent, versus 7 percent).
Afifi's team was able to account for some other factors—including family income and whether kids suffered more severe abuse, physical or otherwise. "Harsh" discipline was still linked to a 20 percent to 28 percent increased risk of the three adulthood health problems.
A child-abuse expert not involved in the study agreed that physical punishment is potentially harmful. Plus, while it may get a child to stop the bad behavior right now, it does not work in the long run, said Dr. Rachel Berger, of the Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh.
"There's a tremendous and growing literature showing that corporal punishment is not necessary, and that there can be detrimental effects," Berger said.
The current study, though, has some limitations, said Berger, who co-wrote an accompanying editorial.
One issue, according to Berger, is how "harsh" physical punishment was defined. It was based on one question: "How often did a parent or other adults living in your home push, grab, shove, slap or hit you?" (The study did not ask specifically about "spanking"—the most common form of childhood physical punishment.)
Only about 4 percent of adults said they'd at least sometimes been subjected to those forms of discipline. On the other hand, 38 percent reported more-severe child maltreatment—including physical abuse that left kids bruised or injured.
Berger said fewer adults would be expected to report severe maltreatment, versus harsh punishment. So that raises doubts about how the question was asked, and how respondents were interpreting it, according to Berger.
And since the study did not look at milder physical punishment, the findings cannot be used to condemn everything down to the occasional whack on the behind. "You can't say, based on this alone, 'OK, now we know we shouldn't use any physical punishment,'" Berger said.
Another researcher not involved in the work said he did not find the results all that compelling. The study looked at seven adulthood health conditions, and found that harsh physical punishment was statistically linked to three of them.
And even then, the links were not strong in statistical terms, noted Christopher Ferguson, an associate professor of psychology at Texas A&M International University, in Laredo.
Ferguson said he is no advocate of spanking, but added, "I wouldn't want parents who have spanked their kids to become alarmed by this."
Study author Afifi agreed that parents should not feel alarmed—or guilty. "We're not trying to point the finger at parents," she said. But based on the body of research, parents should try to learn nonphysical types of discipline, she added.
And if you're not sure how to do that? "I would recommend that parents start by talking to their pediatrician," Afifi suggested.
Based on past surveys, the vast majority of Americans were spanked as kids. So it may be pretty ingrained in the culture, noted Berger at Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh.
"But just because you were spanked," she said, "doesn't mean it's right for your child."
More information: The American Academy of Pediatrics has tips on disciplining children.
Health News Copyright © 2013 HealthDay. All rights reserved.