text:
By Mark A. DeWeaver
Many Americans view China's emergence as the world's second largest economy with trepidation. The US, it seems, is in decline. China is a 'rising power' destined to take over America's role as global hegemon sometime in the not-too-distant future.
Yet so far there is little evidence to suggest that this strategy is working. Indeed, there is really no reason to believe that such a transition can be achieved under the country's current political-economic system. |
Recently, however, China's prospects are looking less rosy. First quarter GDP grew only 7.7%, down from an already subpar 7.9% in the fourth quarter of 2012. Exports are slowing and the investment-led growth upon which the country has relied in the past is clearly unsustainable. Beijing is hoping to keep the economy on track by transitioning to a new 'growth model' based on consumption and productivity gains. Yet so far there is little evidence to suggest that this strategy is working. Indeed, there is really no reason to believe that such a transition can be achieved under the country's current political-economic system.
As the Chinese juggernaut starts to lose momentum, should Americans be breathing a collective sigh of relief? Not really. Unfortunately, China's decline is likely to be a lot less peaceful than its rise.
Slower growth will pose an existential problem for the Chinese Communist Party. Ever since the end of the Maoist era in 1978, economic development has been the Party's primary source of legitimacy. A prolonged slowdown will weaken its hold on power in much the same way that crop failures during imperial times undermined the emperor's claim to the 'mandate of heaven'. If China is not going to be 'number one' after all, some other justification for Party rule will be urgently needed.
The Party's best bet will be to play the nationalist card, making the defense of the 'motherland' its primary mission. This will not be difficult. It will be easy to blame China's economic failures on the machinations of foreign powers, even as Mao Zedong did in his famous speech proclaiming the founding of the People's Republic in 1949. The fact that China had "fallen behind," he said, was "due entirely to oppression and exploitation by foreign imperialism and domestic reactionary governments."
It will also be easy to put the Chinese economy on a war footing. China's central planning institutions are well suited to the mobilization of resources for defense industries. A military buildup would also help to alleviate excess capacity problems in heavy industry. Total excess capacity in the steel sector, for example, already exceeds total US capacity. Arms
manufacturing is likely to be seen as a good way to put idle plants back online.
The implications for China's neighbors are already evident in Beijing's increasingly bellicose insistence on irredentist territorial claims. There have been escalating tensions with Japan over the Senkaku Islands, spats in the South China Sea involving areas claimed by Vietnam, and even a Chinese incursion into an Indian-controlled Himalayan region claimed by both Beijing and New Delhi.
Such incidents are often described as competitions for the control of natural resources such as the South China Sea's oil and natural gas. They are, however, better understood as consequences of the Party's domestic agenda. And as public relations exercises they have been remarkably successful. Chinese anti-Japanese sentiment is now at fever pitch, with many of China's netizens expressing strident support for military action against Japan to recover lost territories, right historical wrongs, and avenge past humiliations.
US policy makers need to realize that this type of nationalist sentiment is going to be the Party's ace in the hole once the economy slows. Beijing can therefore be expected to prefer that international disputes remain unresolved. Its objective will be to keep the Chinese public distracted by possible foreign threats to China's national security and economic development.
China, not the US, is fated to be the 'declining power' for the remainder of this decade. This means that Washington's preferred policy of 'engagement' will not work. Beijing will be unable to give ground in disputes with its neighbors because doing so will weaken the Party domestically. Events like the recent summit between President Obama and General Secretary Xi Jinping are not going to improve US-China relations when the Party's survival depends on escalating tensions.
Given that dialogue is likely to be ineffective, the US must focus instead on defending its strategic interests in the Pacific. It must continue to strengthen ties with its regional partners, particularly Japan and Taiwan, which are likely to be the main targets of Chinese military adventurism. Most importantly, the US must avoid helping the Party stifle demands for political reforms at home by handing it easy victories abroad.
Dr. Mark A. DeWeaver manages the emerging markets fund Quantrarian Asia Hedge and is the author of Animal Spirits with Chinese Characteristics: Booms and Busts in the World's Emerging Economic Giant.


text:
Your shopping cart is empty.
There was an error retrieving your cart. Please try again later.
Return your equipment to optimum performance with OEM replacement parts. Move and operate your machine safely and effectively with this Solid TPR Swivel Caster. Parts are machine specific. Please check your machine model and serial number before ordering.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Avocado Stud Earrings
--Earrings are made out of sturdy hard plastic
-Earring posts are made with high quality surgical stainless steel posts
-Earrings come with a super cute gift box
PLEASE NOTE: My earrings will come in a small gift box.. BUT I can only send one box per 4 pairs of earrings. If you order more than 4 you will get an additional box. I simply cannot afford to give a box for every single pair of earrings. If you would like to buy an extra box please do so and add this link to your order:
If you order one pair of earrings you will get one box.
Two pairs: 1 box
Three pairs: 1 box
Four pairs: 1 box
Five pairs: 2 boxes
Six pairs: 2 boxes
and so on... Let me know if you have questions about this.
Also, please check out https://www.TheFoxyHipster.com
I'll be moving there very shortly!
:::Please note::: Although the earrings are coated with a clear matte varnish, earrings should be taken off before going under water and showering. I would recommend storing them away from other jewelry to prevent scratching.
Please feel free to convo me with any questions!
Thanks for stopping by!


text:
Tuesday 28 February 2012
Sepia Saturday 115 : Games
28 comments:
- Oregon Gifts of Comfort and Joy said...
Well, I don't know what I will come up with this week, or if it will be on theme, but I DO have a photo of me at the marine and science center in front of a midget submarine that I can easily turn into sepia when the time comes, lol. Have a great holiday!
Kathy M. - 28 February 2012 at 16:29
- Wendy said...
Oh I have games -- board AND physical. I also have Korean STUFF out the wazoo if I decide to thoroughly monopolize Sepia Saturday. I won't -- I promise!
- 28 February 2012 at 18:22
- L. D. said...
I seem to be behind on the themes but I am working them the best that I can.
- 29 February 2012 at 20:07
- Postcardy said...
My game has both board and physical aspects and is played in a warm sunny winter climate (unlike the weather here).
- 29 February 2012 at 23:42
- Jinksy said...
Somehow I'm late for the last one, or early for the next one, so here I am anyway! LOL
- 1 March 2012 at 09:20
- Bob Scotney said...
This days so many games are played on computers that I was relieved to find some board games tucked away.
- 1 March 2012 at 16:00
- Alan Burnett said...
A bit of a flying visit from me this week. Happy Sepia Saturday to everyone : I'm off now to pack my case.
- 1 March 2012 at 16:52
- Lavender and Vanilla Friends of the Gardens said...
I wish you a relaxing holiday Alan; I could not find any "old" gamblers so I had to post some young ones.
- 1 March 2012 at 20:41
- Kristin said...
A family poker game - 1962.
- 2 March 2012 at 03:33
- tony said...
- 2 March 2012 at 13:00
- dakotaboo said...
Have a wonderful winter break Alan. My submission for the week is now posted.
- 2 March 2012 at 13:53
- Julie Goucher said...
Have a great Break. Here is this week's offering.
http://anglersrest.blogspot.com/2012/03/sepia-saturday-115-games.html - 2 March 2012 at 17:30
- Who Were They? said...
I couldn't come up with any games, but I do have some nice photos of Asian children - hand tinted no less.
I find it interesting that the prompt photo says "Corean" not with a K. Wonder if that was due to the lack of consistency in spelling or just the person didn't know how to spell Korean. :-) - 2 March 2012 at 18:50
- Little Nell said...
The memories just came flooding back - my parents' that is, when I asked them to talk about games and toys in a 1999 recording I made.
- 3 March 2012 at 00:22
- Joy said...
Well I've gone for an active game rather than the cerebral.
Have a great holiday Alan. - 3 March 2012 at 01:06
- Mike Brubaker said...
No games or Koreans or smokers for me. I could only pick up the Ladies theme, but I think everyone will enjoy it.
- 3 March 2012 at 04:59
- 21 Wits said...
So Games it is I guess! Will it be checkers or not? I can't wait to get into the game.....and see what everyone has come up with!
- 3 March 2012 at 05:25
- Bruno Laliberté said...
I'm in!!
In a convoluted journey,
I manage to [eventually] speak of games...
You know how I get,
HUGZ - 3 March 2012 at 05:28
- Queen Bee said...
I'm new to Sepia Saturday and had fun looking for game related pictures. Look forward to checking out what everyone found for this week.
- 3 March 2012 at 05:32
- Linda said...
Some vintage games, scraps and of course, cut-outs.
- 3 March 2012 at 07:16
- Steph said...
This one was HARD... so today AND tomorrow's posts have a sporting theme! (Sunday's post is rather unusual...)
- 3 March 2012 at 09:33
- Sheila @ A Postcard a Day said...
My post tells of a different sort of game. I suppose it could get physical though....
have a great break. I'm about to go away for two weeks so I'm not sure that I'll be able to participate for a while. - 3 March 2012 at 10:44
- Jo Graham said...
Fun and games with Granny again this week :-) Enjoy your hol, Alan!
- 3 March 2012 at 15:00
- Linda@VS said...
My "game" photo is a mere 60 years old, so it isn't sepia, but at least it fits the theme. Count me in.
- 3 March 2012 at 15:32
- Wibbo said...
Slightly tongue in cheek this week :o)
- 3 March 2012 at 15:46
- Howard said...
Not on-topic again this week, but my postcard does show some children playing
- 3 March 2012 at 22:45
- Margaret said...
I've been wanting to join Sepia Saturday for a while. My first post this week is of my grandfather and his brother playing baseball.
- 4 March 2012 at 00:03
- Unknown said...
Late again today but took a while to look up something. Nothing too old today. We are a creative bunch and that is good.
QMM - 10 March 2012 at 17:05


text:
CERAWeek by S&P Global 2023: The path to a sustainable energy future
Please log in view this article.
Not yet a subscriber? For just $395/year, you can claim unlimited access to World Oil's content.*
Each subscription includes:
- Unlimited access to all content on WorldOil.com
- Exclusive drilling forecast data, by state, country and region
- State-by-state results from the survey of U.S. operators
- Updated producing oil and gas well figures, by state
- Exclusive access to World Oil's conference presentations
- Proprietary data tables covering casing, tubing, drill bits and fluids
- Exclusive World Oil maps (published three times per year)
- Daily coverage of industry news and developments\
- Industry whitepapers, webcasts, videos and supplements.
Start your subscription today!


text:
Terms and Conditions
1. Bookings made with this site are supplied by Encore Tickets Limited and other suppliers chosen by this site. Encore Tickets acts as a bonded fulfilment agent for this site. Encore Tickets is a member of the Society of Ticket Agents and Retailers (STAR) and operates within the code of practice STAR sets down for its members. For more information on STAR please see www.star.org.uk. For information about how and why we process Personal Data, please see our Privacy Policy.
2. Tickets or Packages cannot be exchanged or cancelled unless you have purchased a Flexiticket option. Flexiticket allows you to change your booking to an alternative date up to 3 days before the original performance date, and protect yourself against cancellation charges.
3. This site acts as an agent only and has no control over the event or venue.
4. Tickets are sold subject to the Rules and Regulations of the event organiser/venue which are available on request. The event organiser/venue reserves the right to make alterations to the advertised arrangements or featured artists, to refuse admission and to request latecomers to await admission until a convenient break.
5. Personal arrangements including travel and accommodation relating to the event are the ticket holder's own risk and in no event shall Encore Tickets Limited, the venue or the producer/promoter be liable for any wasted expenditure beyond the ticket price and booking fee.
6. The ticket holder has a right only to a seat of a value corresponding to that stated on the ticket. Both Encore Tickets Limited and the venue management reserve the right to provide an alternative seat to that stated on the ticket.
7. If accurate personal contact details are not provided at the time of booking (correct email, phone number and billing address), we reserve the right to cancel and refund the transaction.
8. All prices which are displayed include any applicable payment processing fees and booking fees. All prices are inclusive of any applicable VAT. By completing and submitting the electronic order form (or proceeding through the 'checkout process') you are making an offer to purchase goods. Neither submitting an electronic order form or completing the checkout process constitutes our acceptance of your order.
9. All prices which are displayed include any applicable payment processing fees and booking fees. All prices are inclusive of any applicable VAT.
10. We try our very best to ensure the accuracy of all of our prices, but in rare instances pricing errors may occur. If we discover an error in the price of your booking, we will contact you via email or phone or letter and will give you the option of either a) re-processing your booking at the correct price or b) cancelling your booking with a full refund of any monies already paid.
11. The savings which are shown alongside our combined dinner and show packages, is calculated from the package price as a percentage of the ticket face value and restaurant price.
12. Tickets and items purchased from this site by customers outside the UK will be available for collection from the event venue on the date of performance or upon arrival at the hotel, restaurant or attraction. Tickets will only ever be posted to the registered billing address of the credit card holder in the UK.
13. Personal data you provide, including your name and address, will be processed by this site, by Encore Tickets Limited, and by other parties involved in providing services to you, such as for ticket fulfilment, or if you have requested that we send you information by email or post which may be of interest. For more information about how and why we process Personal Data, please see our Privacy Policy.
14. Your name and address will be held by this site. This information will not be divulged to, sold or shared with any other organisation. This site may from time to time send you information by email or post which it believes may be of interest to you. A copy of your personal data will also be held by Encore Tickets Ltd who are licensed solely to use your information for the processing of your booking and not for on-going marketing purposes.
15. In the unlikely event that you have any reason to complain or experience any problems you must immediately inform the supplier of the service(s) in question (including the Restaurant or Hotel) at the time of the experience. Any complaints must then be put in writing to us and we resolve to reply within 48 hours. Please note any complaints need to be made within 14 days of the experience booked.
For more information about how we use Cookies, please see our Cookie Policy.
In using and purchasing from this site you agree with and are bound by the Terms and Conditions above.