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Monday, June 30, 2008
Monday Intraday Market Update
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Sunday, June 29, 2008
Psychology in the Upcoming Week's Data (Crude, ECB, PPC, and Jobs)
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Saturday Night Market Psychology, Just Stayin' Alive
When POTC witnesses a change in sentiment and reversal of trend - the market climactically bottoms out and/or becomes boring - we will be happy to adorn our bull horns. But not yet: let us first address the psychological riddle of the bear market in stocks, and bull market in oil.
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Friday, June 27, 2008
Saturday Evening Article
Friday's Fixation on Oil Grows, Market is in Trouble
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Four Whom the Bell Tolls", POTC's Four Scenarios
We see four scenarios related to crude oil and the unfolding economic data. It's not too late to sell your holdings before the massive sell off, as we see the S&P at 1,190 and Nasdaq at 2,150 before the indexes settle some time next week. Even good earnings this quarter won't matter as most businesses' variable costs have risen substantially. So how the market wants to discount $140/barrel oil is anyone's guess. Do not let the next few closing bells blow up your portfolio. Barring a $10 drop in oil Friday, we are very pessimistic after Thursday's parabolic move. Forecasting crude oil has become an unwelcome financial conundrum and this will exacerbate the sell off. The analyst/firm that says crude is going higher continues to make money as the majority of consumers/investors suffer. Meanwhile the analyst/firm that says crude is going lower continues to lose money and the majority still suffers. Valuations will be questioned in every sector as crude fails to back off. We witnessed every sector in the S&P down Thursday, an extremely rare event. Fasten your seat belts, as we present the four scenarios sprinkled with some psychology.
Our readers should imagine "bad economic data" as a rise in unemployment or fall in retail sales, and "good economic data" as a fall in unemployment or rise in retail sales. Be aware the unemployment data is scheduled for release next Thursday, July 3rd, as the markets are closed for the 4th of July Independence Day celebration… another conundrum.
1) Crude oil does not break down with bad economic data: Very negative for stocks. A deep recession imminent barring more government stimulation/intervention. Even IF the government acts again, isn't investor psychology near the tipping point? We certainly think so. POTC believes in "laissez faire", but after the Bear Stearns collapse, we understand if you differ. http://www.bartleby.com/65/la/laissezf.html
2) Crude oil does not break down with good economic data:Question mark for stocks. FOMC rate hike imminent as the past rate cuts have kicked in and miraculously jump-started the economy. The $64,000 question is whether the rate hike causes the greenback to strengthen and crude to fall. The strengthening of the greenback must develop into a trend, and the same goes for the sell off in crude, otherwise, we're back to where we started. IF trends take hold, stocks rise, IF not, stocks continue to fall. Therefore, we rated this as neutral/question mark.
3) Crude oil breaks down below $130/barrel with bad economic data: Somewhat positive for stocks, as FOMC remains on hold and the biggest thorn/cost in the consumer and corporate sector is slowly removed. Paradoxically, bad economic data has been historically positive for stocks since the FOMC stayed on hold, but with bad economic data like rising unemployment, the question remains as to whether the rate cuts were enough to eventually kick in and turn the tide of unemployment to more employment? A conundrum again, but we rate it as somewhat positive nonetheless.
4) Crude oil breaks down below $130/barrel with good economic data: Very positive for stocks, as the cost of energy diminishes. The focus though again turns to the credibility of the FOMC to hike rates. Uncertainty is what Wall Street hates most. By how much will they raise rates, and for what duration of time? Yet the hike will be warranted on the back of good economic data, so the benefit of the greenback strengthening and oil breaking down further is a huge benefit IF this scenario unfolds.
We hope you enjoyed our four scenarios. Please print out this page and make marks next to the four scenarios, monitoring oil and all economic data. Quick Financial Psychological Fusion: Today's GDP was "good economic data", but weekly unemployment claims came in as "bad", but crude rose, so it fell between scenarios #1 and # 2, yes? Remember scenario #1 is very negative for stocks, and scenario #2 is only a question mark after the FOMC raises rates. We hope we didn't lose too many, but these markets are very complicated. Could the sole dissenter, Fisher, strong arm Chairman Bernanke to raise rates Monday morning IF crude continues to rise or even stabilizes in the $135-$140 range? The argument for hiking could be made for a stronger greenback. Would you and the rest of the world buy it… the greenback, that is? That's where the $64,000 enigma in scenario #2 lies.
With no economic data scheduled for tomorrow, we will unfortunately be trading on hot oil. We urge our readers to avoid ALL stocks until the shake out is complete and/or oil breaks down below $130/barrel. We did blog that there would be better opportunities after the 4th of July fireworks.
We stand by that prediction and we hope you realise that the Psychology of the Call team will continue to stand by you.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Thursday Update
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Crude Holding the Market Hostage
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Thursday Market Psychology
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Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Wednesday After-Fed Psychology
Our latest piece is available. As part of our transition to a different blog format and a stand-alone website, we will be reducing our postings on intraday psychology and the Psychology of the Upcoming Week in this forum.
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Wednesday Intraday Psychology
We feel the manufacturing sector will continue to show strength, and the forecast of 0% will be bested. Our readers should position themselves for a bear market rally. Please monitor the price of crude from open to close, but especially after the Crude Oil Inventory release comes at 10:30 ET for week ending 6/21. POTC is confident crude oil will begin to ease, and any drop in exess of $3.00/barrel should further ignite the bears. A United Arab Emirates oil minister had more bearish words for crude late Tuesday night at an Oil and Gas conference in Seoul, Korea. Here's the story courtesy of the Dow Jones news wires:
DJ UAE Oil Min: Willing To Supply More Oil If Market Needs
SEOUL (Dow Jones)--The global oil market is still well supplied, but the United Arab Emirates is willing to provide more oil if needs arise, the country's minister of energy said Wednesday.
"We are willing to supply more because we have spare capacity. We are willing to supply if the market needs oil," Mohamed Al Hamli said on the sidelines of the Asian Oil & Gas Show being held in Seoul, South Korea, June 25-27.
"The market is adequately supplied at the moment," Al Hamli added.
The comments follow a one-day summit between oil producers and consumers held June 22 in the Red Sea port city of Jeddah. During the summit, Saudi Arabia confirmed it would boost output from July by 200,000 barrels a day to 9.7 million barrels a day, on top of the output boost of 300,000 barrels a day it announced in May. It also pledged to increase investment in its oil industry.
But Saudi's commitment has failed to ease supply concerns, with traders focusing on shut-in production in Nigeria.
At 0257 GMT, light, sweet crude oil for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading at $136.84 a barrel, down 16 cents and below the record high of $139.89 a barrel set June 16.
-By Sherry Su and Shin Jung-Won; Dow Jones Newswires; 65-64154065; firstname.lastname@example.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 24, 2008 22:59 ET (02:59 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 10 59 PM EDT 06-24-08
At 2:15pm ET, the FOMC will release their policy statement. The bullish market reaction will continue to build on the better than expected Durable Goods orders before market open. The KEY to a very bullish reaction surrounds the two dissenters at the last policy meeting. POTC believes the last interest rate move was unnecessary and the two dissenters now have more power. No talking head on CNBC addressed that point. We see very hawkish rhetoric out of the FOMC, mainly due to the two dissenters who now have more credibility and more influence. Our readers must understand this is a mere bear market rally on Wednesday, so please tread cautiously, as the bias is still down. The 1,256 S&P previous St Patrick's low could be tested IF crude breaks through $140/barrel, but POTC doesn't see that happening this week. The perma-bears will be full of excuses, but our readers should not let their words fall on deaf ears.
Research in Motion (RIMM) reports after the close. We don't recommend buying shares before the report, as inflation has spread outside the U.S. RIMM's quarter will probably beat estimates, but their conference call (CC) tone and guidance should send shares lower Thursday morning. POTC feels the competition in the cell phone space is getting deeper than anyone envisioned just 6 months ago, especially with Apple, Nokia, Samsung, and even Google's android supposed 4th quarter launch. Isn't Garmin (GRMN) trying to get their GPS concentrated phone to the market by Christmas as well? Rumors are GRMN's phone will be delayed. The competitive factors from Apple, Nokia, Samsung, and now Google are not "game over" for RIMM, as they still have the most sought after high profile phone, and what we feel is the best marketing team in the land of technology today.
The Psychology of the Call team predicts a bull stampede all day Wednesday, so enjoy it.
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Tuesday Intraday Psychology
Monday, June 23, 2008
Monday Intraday Update
Do you believe demand destruction is ahead? The consequences of traveling less by car and plane would result in people using the internet a lot more, yes? Why should Sally drive a 60 mile round trip to the mall outside of Chicago or LA, when she can use her PC to buy and receive delivery of just about anything, all without wasting a single gallon of $4.00+ gas? Please consider buying Google (GOOG) when the Nasdaq closes that 2,300 gap.
The FOMC will issue their policy statement and smattering of psychology at 2:15pm ET this Wednesday. Our readers should position themselves more for July 16th, as the details of the Fed meeting/minutes are released. POTC feels they will be more hawkish than the more neutral spin offered this coming Wednesday: interest rates are heading up, and the stock market will not rally until oil breaks $130/barrel. Lastly, remember this is an election year and the economy is very sensitive with high food and energy, so the FOMC's statement could be more political on Wednesday and then reveal greater truths on July 16th at 2:00pm ET.
We remain bearish. Please follow the 11 Commandments and 7 Pillars, the Psychology of the Call team wishes all our new and return readers a good Monday.
Saturday, June 21, 2008
The Psychology Driving the Upcoming Week's Market
POTC finds it very interesting that Canada's pride and joy, Research in Motion Ltd. (RIMM), reports Wednesday after the market. Perhaps this aids in closing that Nasdaq 2,300 gap?
Quick Psychological Financial Fusion: IF crude oil fails to break down into the $120s, we urge our readers to steer clear of RIMM ahead of their report, as the negative macro factors outweigh the positives. We are confident RIMM will not have an upbeat call, even though their numbers can better the estimates. High energy prices crimp discretionary spending, and now we have Midwest flooding and a Treasury market turn, therefore we add another negative to the list. The past sell off (rising yields) in Treasuries has stopped, forcing us to switch Treasuries from the positive to negative column.
The positives remain:
1) Election year;
2) GDP fails to signal recession;
3) Extreme pessimism in the Michigan Consumer sentiment (contrarian indicator eventually).
1) Rising Unemployment;
2) Crude oil fails to break down;
3) Rising food prices (Midwest flooding) http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080621/ap_on_re_us/midwest_flooding_stranded_barges;
4) Recent Treasury market strength (lower yields/flight to safety);
5) Israeli/Iranian and Nigerian tensions;
6) Hurricane season of 2008 looms;
7) NASDAQ gap at 2,300;
8) Weak greenback;
9) Uncertainty surrounding the June 25th FOMC decision and future policy.
As you see, the negatives vs. the positives are 9-3, approaching extreme fallout and long/bullish opportunities ahead. Fasten your seat belts, as we already did.(http://psychologyofthecall.blogspot.com/2008/06/exit-long-positions-today.html)
The bearish thesis cannot change to bullish just yet, and for good reason(s).
In our last weekend psychology piece, we informed you: "it makes more sense to short the bounces than to go long." And we hope many of our return supporters acted on that advice.
POTC will continue to expose CNBC's Jim Cramer as a destructive monolithic bull. We strongly feel he has single handedly ruined many investors and traders alike. He gets a letter grade of D+ for his mantra: "there's always a bull market somewhere". POTC has stated before, and we'll state it again, sometimes the markets invert/sell off so hard and fast, that "the only bull market is called the bond market." Has Jim Cramer ever recommended a single bond or informed viewers how he made money shorting stocks on CNBC? We haven't seen any evidence. Our eighth Commandment says: 'There are two sides to the market, long and short, take advantage of that leverage.'
POTC is not in business to make enemies, only to educate and inform our supporters of the truth about market mechanics, so if we offended anyone, we apologize. Jim Cramer should be ashamed of his monolithic thesis on the "bull market". Please read our piece on him from two weeks ago, as he stated the market was going through a "small correction". Has he apologized? http://psychologyofthecall.blogspot.com/2008/05/thursdays-economic-psychology-and.html
The chart below depicts short interest psychology on the NYSE since 1990. Most short interest is hedge fund driven, a normal and efficient market phenomenon. After Friday's close, the NYSE released its mid-month short interest report. Since the end of May, short interest increased by > 7%, marking the third time this year short interest increased by > 5%!
Please note the two sectors the hedge funds have locked their teeth into, regional banks and consumer discretionary goods. They are obviously betting on oil staying above $120/barrel (bad for consumer discretionary). They also see the credit crisis in banking/real estate to continue (bad for financials, especially regional banks with direct credit exposure):
The $64,000 question is whether these shorts will cover in the coming weeks, especially if the FOMC leaves rates unchanged, or will they wait for bankruptcies in hopes the FOMC raises rates and delivers the last crushing blow.
Herein the conundrum/dislocation lies: as the FOMC raises rates, the greenback should be strengthened, therefore potentially bursting the inflation of crude oil and food.
Do any of our readers feel it makes better sense studying long positions in consumer discretionary goods today; we do. But we urge our readers to NOT pick from any on this short list, as there are stronger names that will respond more favorably IF crude breaks down, and we feel it will. Please understand hedge funds also short specific stocks due to the micro economics surrounding that specific company. But, when a sector is so heavily shorted, it weighs on the gems in that sector. Value is to be found in consumer discretionary names in our opinion, especially after the market sells off in climactic fashion. Consider companies like Coca-Cola Co. (KO). Consider a limit buy at $52, with a stop sell of $49, and a potential profit target to $65, or 20%. That type of trade set up will rarely hurt you compared to the buy and hold mentality. The buy and hold days are long gone in today's dynamic global market. Our readers must learn to exhibit greater patience, as setting up entry and exit points is critical to long term success.
The volatility (VIX) is still not signaling the fear we need to begin going long. Please wait as POTC has written before, "until after the July 4th fireworks." Realize "patience" is the key to your success, NOT relying on monolithic/one sided talking heads like Jim Cramer, or forcing trades. Allow market forces to shake out all the long market speculators, and only then the shorts are left to ironically drive the market higher. POTC embraces the freedom of markets, and none is more relevant than the ability to sell short and then be forced to eventually buy back at lower or higher prices. Shorting is a double edged sword, and today's shorts have the longs squarely in their guillotines. Stay clear until the heavy death spike down occurs; only then will the dust settle and a boring market evolve. POTC did warn our readers in previous articles that market bottoms are formed when a boring/complacent psychology sets in and we're not there yet. Attempting to time the bottom usually turns out to be ruinous. Allow market mechanics to take their toll and the blood letting to stop.
Nigerian terrorists attack oil pipeline:
Israeli's military test run:
After touching the $131 levels on Thursday, crude may have seen its final run up. IF crude breaks into the $120s June 23-27, the equity market will breathe a sigh of relief, and long positions will be rewarded. Here's a chart; you decide:
Crude oil continues to hold the markets hostage. Never before have so many experts been so confused, afraid, and in denial that bear markets are a normal cyclical phenomenon. Please recall our piece that addressed avoiding the financial sector months ago. The first link is to a post that presages the Bear Stearns disaster:
1. http://psychologyofthecall.blogspot.com/2008/03/cats-seen-bouncing-from-broadway-to.html
2. http://psychologyofthecall.blogspot.com/2008/03/wow-recent-developments-surrounding.html
3. http://psychologyofthecall.blogspot.com/2008/03/philly-fed-report-kick-starts-stocks.html
Many experts were calling a bottom in financials in March and April; now we know they were wrong. POTC felt and continues to feel the banking regulations ahead, especially for Investment Banks, are beginning to be reflected in prices, but it's not over on in many cases. Avoiding all financials today makes sense. The drumbeats surrounding government oversight and regulations, coupled with higher rates, make buying any financial stock today rather foolish in our opinion. Don't be fooled by today's P/Es or any forward-looking P/E estimate, as earnings ahead are too difficult to peg.
Raising the fed funds rate wields the bloodiest hammer to financial sector stocks, as they make and lose money based on the yield curve and expansion of credit. Cheap money (low fed funds rates), in theory, causes loan demand and business development to expand, so when the FOMC raises rates, the financial and business sector will be ball and chained.
In our opinion, the conundrum and market dislocations are 70% to blame on high energy and food prices, and 30% to blame on credit/real estate woes. Quick Psychological Fusion: Some argue the weak greenback is the culprit of both problems: we somewhat agree, although we are more concerned with the psychological fall out of a rate hike and oil prices not backing off as the greenback fails to strengthen. Although that is a doom and gloom type of argument, we want our readers to understand all possible angles.
POTC sees no reason to go long stocks just yet, unless you are a seasoned trader that understands trading volatility. Trading volatility is an inexact science that can make you millions of dollars, but you must be disciplined in taking profits as well as losses, never falling in love with any stock or position. Our fifth Commandment of Trading bears that out in black and white.
We are deeply grateful to all our loyal return supporters, especially the ones who have helped us spread the blog by printing, emailing, copying, pasting, and Facebooking to family and friends. POTC will give timely intraday updates everyday this week, but especially monitoring these three things:
1) Price of Crude;
2) The FOMC decision Wednesday at 2:15pm ET;
3) Canada's pride and joy, RIMM's earnings Wednesday after market close;
Here's to patience and trading volatility, or just waiting for the climactic bottom to occur, the Psychology of the Call team leaves you with this relief/survival video:
Friday, June 20, 2008
Our Expansion and Our Commandments for Trading
Exit Long Positions TODAY
The positives remain:
1) Election year;
2) GDP fails to signal recession;
3) Treasury Market sell off;
4) Extreme pessimism in the Michigan Consumer sentiment (contrarian indicator eventually).
However we feel the positives are outweighed by the negatives:
1) Rising Unemployment;
2) Crude oil fails to break down;
3) Rising food prices;
4) Hurricane season of 2008;
5) NASDAQ gap at 2,300;
6) Weak greenback;
7) Uncertainty surrounding the June 25th FOMC decision.
Bubblin' Crude Finally a Bubblin' Down, Caution
IF crude falls more than $5.00 tomorrow, that would send it to the mid $120s, and fear of sub $100 crude will be hotly debated. IF crude oil opens down over $2.00 Friday, we recommend shorting or buying puts on the stocks mentioned above, even if only for a day. 'Freaky Friday' will live up to its name, no doubt. Lastly, if crude closes in the $120s Friday, it will have to be monitored Monday and all next week to verify whether the break is a short term occurrence, or long term trend. IF this turns out to be a long term trend, it will have to be released out of the negative factors that weigh on the market. Please use this time sensitive information for trading purposes only, as crude oil in the $120s still has detrimental effects on the economy, yet offers our readers tremendous short term opportunities. Thanks for your Thursday night attention, please vote in our poll, the Psychology of the Call team.
Thursday, June 19, 2008
The Frustration of Higher Interest Rates and Slowing Growth
The FOMC must raise interest rates soon to stave off run away inflation, as witnessed in the Prices Paid Component this morning at 69.3. The Prices Paid Component has NEVER has it been that high. Slower growth is now expected and must be accepted, but in POTC's opinion rising prices can no longer be tolerated.
Despite the market being up as of this 12.25 ET writing, we remain bearish on stocks until we get the FOMC decision this coming Tuesday, June 25th. POTC sees a lot of uncertainty before that 2:15 PM ET announcement, and that usually translates to lower stock prices. Tomorrow is what is widely known as 'freaky Friday', so do not let the option expiration day fool you into dressing as a bull.
The Psychology of the Call team wishes you a good day.
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Thursday and Friday
Morgan Stanley and the Remainder of the Week
Morgan Stanley Earnings Reignite Financial Firm Fears.
By Kate Haywood Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The cost of debt protection for Morgan Stanley (MS) moved wider Wednesday after the investment bank unveiled a 60% slump in second-quarter profit, reaffirming fears about financial firms.
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Destruction and Misery creates Opportunity
There are two certain consequences of this natural catastrophe. The already-rising price of corn will continue to rise, and tens of thousands of individuals will now find themselves in need of lumber and other home building related goods. This reality combines with the fact that we're in the midst of the 2008 hurricane season and Florida, the Carolinas, and other coastal areas could experience property damage.
POTC will buy Home Depot (HD) and Lowes (LOW) in anticipation of increased sales and revenues over the next several months.
Lowes (LOW)
Limit buy $23
Stop sell $21.20 (8% loss)
Target $29 (26% gain)
Monday, June 16, 2008
Financial Fallout
Crude Oil Holding the Market Hostage
Psychology & Politics behind the NY Empire Index Weakness
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Psychology in the Upcoming Week's Economics & Earnings Data
The NASDAQ closed down 20 points or 0.8% for the week. From a 6 June close at 2474.56 to a 13 June close at 2454.50.
The S&P 500 Index closed down a whisker for the week, from a 6 June close at 13.60.42 to a 13 June close at 1360.03. Do you appreciate the significance of the flat close in the S&P500 this week, in spite of many financial stocks finishing up 10% plus on Friday? Here's what happened:
The main driver for the week was the financial fallout related to the Brothers Lehman (LEH) and the short covering that occurred all day Friday. LEH closed on at $32.33 on 6 June and rallied from under $21.00 at one point on Thursday to close at $25.81 for the week: that's still a 20% fall. Did anyone find CNBC's Charlie Gasparino's two day old comments from Merrill Lynch (MER) reiterated intraday on cable TV a bit suspect? MER's CEO John Thain did report they may need to raise capital on Wednesday, so Gasparino's commentary was out of bounds: do you agree? Perhaps the market shook down enough in order for his hedge fund buddies to cover at lower prices. Here's a 3 month chart since a 5 day wouldn't show the gap down from its $32.33 close on Friday, 6 June:
Ironically, "Profit Taking Friday" did come true in an up market, as hedge funds decided to cover their short positions in LEH and many other financials. Friday's 20 point explosive S&P rally can be single handedly accounted for in short covering of the beaten down financial sector, but especially Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS), both up 6.9%. The S&P is heavily weighted with financials, so it is a rare day to see the financials rally with the S&P down. Our readers should not be fooled into thinking the financial sector is a buy here after Friday's rally, as earnings from LEH come Monday, GS Tuesday and MS Wednesday. Quick Psychology: If it weren't for short covering in financials and relief rallies caused by MSFT and GOOG, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) coming in at 0.6% was enough to derail the market. The Producer Price Index is slated for Tuesday and hopefully the short covering continues for the bulls' sake, but we don't think it will.
Please be advised… Wall Street hates uncertainty, and the regulations that lay ahead will not be known for many months. What we do know today is forward earnings will contract due to the dried up real estate/credit/derivative markets as well as lack of global Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) and Merger and Acquisition (M&A) activity of late. The high price of crude and food is affecting many nations and the drumbeats of rate increases from ECB's Trichet and Chairman Bernanke are getting louder. POTC urges readers to be cautious with any long positions, especially ahead of Goldman's report and the PPI on Tuesday before market open.
Another interesting cliché and market mechanic that came true was "Buy the Rumor and Sell the News" with shares of AAPL. POTC was negative on the NASDAQ this past week in our Sunday night Apple piece and we want to congratulate all E-Mini traders who profited, as we did. Also, congratulations to all who voted AAPL would close down for the week in our poll.
POTC strives for all our readers to understand the simple fact that when everyone in the media is on the same side of the trade, as they were with the launch of the AAPL iPhone, the expectations usually back fire. Pete Najarian of Dylan Ratigan's CNBC show "Fast Money" mentioned buying AAPL call options several times preceding the iPhone launch, CNBC had reporters on the scene to cover the event and Steve Jobs. When factors like these converge, you have to realize it's only a matter of time until someone says "fire". Witness that selling stampede with AAPL's price falling over $21 from Tuesday's high to Friday's open. For the week AAPL shares lost.
The last driver that aided the market rally was Microsoft's (MSFT) adamant public statement regarding withdrawing from the Yahoo (YHOO) deal. It was obvious MSFT share holders were fed up with share price under performance and Steve Ballmer was forced to make a final stand: NO DEAL and shares rallied 2.9%. As a result of this news shares of Google (GOOG) rallied over $18.00 or 3% since it is less likely MSFT will be able to effectively compete in search advertising. POTC would buy GOOG on pull backs and does not recommend buying MSFT or YHOO.
Market mechanics were dynamic last week. POTC hopes our readers now better understand what transpired and led to the volatility. Why did the short covering rally ensue you ask? 1) LEH, GS, and MS all report this week. 2) The Fed window is open to cover any and all losses by bad trades and mismanagement, so the chance of another Bear Stearns is nearly zero. 3) The short trade was getting tired and had over 20% profit in one week, even in the face of a 13.7% Friday LEH rally alone! So, "Profit Taking Friday" did in fact occur. We apologize for not bringing you this information earlier, but POTC is very proud to have you aboard and promises to always look back in order to clarify and educate in the dynamics of market mechanics.
Bear in mind that forthcoming week ends with "triple witching" expiration on Friday. This is an event that occurs when the contracts for stock index futures, stock index options and stock options all expire on the same day. Triple witching days happen four times a year on the third Friday of March, June, September and December. This phenomenon is sometimes referred to as "freaky Friday", so be aware that things could be a little strange on Thursday afternoon and all day Friday.
On Monday, June 16th at 8:30 ET, the NY Empire State Index for the month of June is released. It is a regional manufacturing survey that quizzes nearly 200 executives on their current sentiment as well as their six month outlooks. The prior reading came in at -3.2%, now the consensus is from 0 to -2.4%. POTC feels this number will come in strong, as the survey is prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Could some politics play into this number as Wall Street is under the knife? Of course. POTC would shrug off the rallies that ensue after this number and pay closer attention to crude oil as a day trade indicator. Also, please pay close attention to the financials, specifically LEH, GS, and MS. Is the short covering rally over? Perhaps, but LEH's Q2 2008 earnings report Monday at 10:00 ET will make headlines and the headlines cannot be good when losses mount and a call for capital is announced. Are Investment Banks not supposed to be experts in hedging strategies? Their mathematical computer models are only as good as their forward-looking projections/estimates/assumptions. The real estate market was thought of as bullet proof, a trade that couldn't lose. (Just ask Bear Stearns.)
Here's the link to the live LEH CC: http://investor.shareholder.com/lehman/events.cfm
Please don't force trades, allow the mechanics of the market and Institutional money (smart money) to give you direction. Our team will be monitoring these three hugely important gauges of short covering, earnings, and oil very closely, but especially the minutes after 10:00 ET, as Institutional money rarely trades early or late. GS reports before market Tuesday, so set your trades up accordingly, as there will be a reaction down before the opening bell. Please understand all these insights are only true with the 10th Commandment in mind.
On Tuesday, June 17th at 8:30 ET, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the month of May is released.
The prior reading came in at 0.2%, now the consensus is for 1.0%, which is 5X greater. The Core PPI, which strips out food and energy prior reading was 0.4% and the current consensus is 0.2%. Quick Psychology: Food and energy costs have some how not been passed through to other goods. Is it possible this finally shows up in this report? Yes, it is. If it DOESN'T show up, with crude being at roughly $135/barrel isn't the psychology more important than an enigmatic government statistic? We think so. As a consumer, do you see lower gas prices and homes selling at or above asking prices? As a consumer, are you taking more trips and spending the same amount of money as last year on clothes and cars and appliances? POTC is not looking-forward to Tuesday's report with any optimism. If the PPI does finally reflect the average consumer pain, and the short covering rally in financials is over, will the 20 point move up in the S&P on Friday look like a minor hick up to the fall come Tuesday? It's very possible.
Ironically, Housing Starts and Building Permits are released at 8:30 ET for May as well. If you want to see an ugly bear chart, please click this link:
Is it possible the aggressive Fed rate cuts will show an improvement in Housing Starts and Building Permits? POTC wouldn't bet on it with food and energy inflation now becoming a global phenomenon. Mr. Jim Jubak, a financial journalist we praise and hold in high regard wrote this timely piece: http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/InflationFromAsiaTheNextCrisis.aspx
Are you still buying Friday's short covering bear market rally? POTC reiterates there are two sides to the market (long and short), and we hope our readers understand there is a time to be bullish and a time to be bearish. POTC will never pull wool over our faces and try to convince ourselves there "is always a bull market somewhere" (Jim Cramer). There are short covering rallies from time to time and we missed the opportunity to point that out to you before it occurred.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for May are released at 9:15 ET.
POTC will pay closer attention to Industrial Production, as it is slated to improve from a minus 0.7% to a positive 0.1%-0.2%. In past recessions, industrial production dipped well south of zero, which hasn't happened yet. Although it won't happen come Tuesday, the price of oil is taking a toll on both Asian and European economies with every passing day. For every day that crude stays above $130/barrel, negative effects mount squarely on the shoulders of the consumer. Producer and transport costs must eventually be passed on to the individual on the street and with the FOMC hinting at a rate hike, you have to wonder who would want to go long a single share of stock today. GS may in fact report their single worst quarter in over 2 years, so we urge caution. Here's a chart of how well GS did by shorting sub prime. Where will their next spring of wealth come from? Maybe that's why GS could break down below $160 in the blink of an eye?
Keep in mind the profits from shorting sub prime began being reflected in 2004, now that Collateralized Debt Market (CDO) and Collateralized Mortgage Obligation (CMO) is gone:
GS Q2 2008 earnings report before market open, live CC link:
"Trend Setting Tuesday" will surely live up to its name, and POTC sees no reason to be bullish.
On Wednesday, June 18th at 10:30 ET, Crude Oil Inventories are released for week ending 14 June. This report is coming on the heels of $135/barrel oil, with little relief in sight. The chatter of regulating speculators and exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile Group (CME), and raising margin requirements is not a market friendly development. Markets can be manipulated, and we witnessed that with George Soros in 1992 and the British Pound, but did currency trading become regulated as a result? On the contrary, currency trading at the CME and NY Mercantile Exchange NMX has exploded, and that's a true reflection of well oiled/efficient market forces at work. Two sides to every market, with one winner and one loser. IF the government steps in to regulate the financial sector because of the recent real estate crisis, or the oil speculators, why should we even have a stock market? Perhaps the point is that in a truly free market system, the government does not get involved, except in the case of fraud. If anyone can manipulate a market, that means it still is not completely free, right? As much as we hate to praise George Soros, what he did to the Pound strengthened and exposed currency trading to the world. Nonetheless, until the regulations are understood it is very difficult to put a value on any financial institution like LEH or MS, or any exchange like CME or NMX. POTC will stay away from all financial institutions and exchanges until the dust settles and that won't happen for many months.
Today, shorting the bounces makes more sense than buying. So until crude pulls back under $100/barrel, the alternative energy argument only gets stronger. Have you ever considered First Solar (FSLR) or Energy Conversion Devices (ENER)? Although the irony with the alternative energy trade is if crude climbs and stays above $150/barrel, there is a possibility of a global stock market crash, then these companies get much cheaper.
MS Q2 2008 earnings report before market open. MS will no doubt report the worst quarter in many years. That is expected, and now regulations are on the way.
There are no economic or earnings data coming Friday, so trend setting Tuesday's economic and earnings data along with oil will dictate the tone for the week.
On Thursday, June 19th Initial Claims for Unemployment are released for week ending 6/14 at 8:30 ET.
The employment picture has steadily worsened and this is a greater worry for the FOMC than crude oil. The last weekly unemployment number came in at 384K and that is getting too close to that dangerous 400K recession type alarm. A nation's employment is the most important barometer of future economic health, so traders will not be sleeping in late come Thursday. Since this is only a weekly number, the revision aspect will mute the response, unless it comes in north of 400K. Strangely enough, there are no current consensus estimates, but the last estimate was for 357K and it came in at 384K. Caution is warranted ahead of this release.
The Philadelphia Fed Index is released at 10:00 ET. http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/phil.htm
The prior reading came in at -15.6 and now the consensus is between -10 and -12. The improvement in most estimates this week is not bullish, as expectations of the stimulus checks seem to be very optimistic. The prices paid component in the Philly Fed Index is what you should be watching more closely than the raw number. The prices paid have blipped above 60 only twice since 1992, so this release could confirm the worst case scenario: rising unemployment and rising prices, a nightmare for the FOMC. No releases are scheduled for Friday, and that usually does not make for a bullish day.
With the FOMC policy meeting scheduled for June 25th, the uncertainties of their actions can only cause panic for traders on Friday and Monday, June 24th. That Monday has Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders, and New Home Sales scheduled for release. Do you feel confident in any of those data points? POTC reiterates there is no reason to be long stocks in the face of a potential interest rate hike: none. Two of the Fed governors have probably made up their minds to hike rates by 25 basis points, or a quarter of one percent come Tuesday June 25th. There were two dissenters to the rate cut last time, so a rate cut at this point is out of the question. With Paulson and the Fed governors addressing a strong dollar all last week, it looks certain a rate hike is ahead. Please remember that Wall Street rarely rallies before the first fed hike, and rarely rallies after it.
Some feel this time is different because of the weak greenback and high crude oil. But what happens if oil fails to pull back after the FOMC raises rates? The anticipation of that psychology still out weighs the bullish argument.
The positives remain:
1) Election year;
2) GDP fails to signal recession;
3) Treasury Market sell off;
4) Extreme pessimism in the Michigan Consumer sentiment (contrarian indicator eventually).
However we feel the positives are outweighed by the negatives:
1) Rising Unemployment;
2) Crude oil fails to break down;
3) Rising food prices; 4) Hurricane season of 2008 5) NASDAQ gap at 2,300
6) Weak greenback;
7) Uncertainty surrounding the June 25th FOMC decision.
The Psychology of the Call team wishes everyone a good week ahead. Thank you for sharing our insights with friends and family by printing, copying, facebooking, and emailing the blog spot as often as possible!
Friday, June 13, 2008
Friday's conundrum
The Eleven Commandments of Trading
1. Never trade more than 10% of your total capital/account value in any one position.
2. Cash is King, and we recommend keeping 20% liquid to take advantage of dislocations and volatility.
3. Cut losses to 15% maximum whenever possible. If your psyche is shaken, step away and don't trade for 1 week.
4. Take and enjoy profits of 30% or more.
5. Never fall in love with a stock and never force trades or over trade; remember commandment #2.
6. Never accept excuses from management, period.
7. Use technical and fundamental data & psychology/sentiment from the conference call to select trades.
8. There are two sides to the market, long & short; take advantage of that leverage.
9. Understand the significance of the macro geo-political economic environment.
10. Unforeseen events/shocks will happen, inverting the market upside down (remember commandments #1 & #2)
11. All of the above are void without reading the Psychology of the Call.
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
The Beige Book Weighs on Our Minds & Lays in Our Paths
Our readers should never force trades and the path of least resistance today is still down. The list of negative factors is getting longer and the negativity has now spread to Asia and Europe. The banking crisis is no longer solely a U.S. phenomenon and global inflation will be combated with higher interest rates and therefore slower growth for equities. The banking regulations ahead will take a heavy toll on the S&P, as a majority of that Index is weighted with financials. We did write about avoiding financials many weeks ago. Although we are against regulations, the global consumer has now taken center stage and is demanding some kind of relief action. Please remember to follow the 11 Commandments and 7 Pillars.
The Psychology of the Call team wishes you a profitable week.
Sunday, June 8, 2008
Apple Optimists Need Not Apply
Today, POTC is excited to bring you very time sensitive trading insights regarding E-mini Nasdaq futures. We're very concerned about the gaps in the Nasdaq at 2,300 and 2,350 just two months ago and we see a very favorable set up:
Quick Psychology: With the buzz around the new Apple iPhone (AAPL) scheduled for Monday, the Nasdaq could see a dead cat bounce to 2,490 or higher. IF that occurs, POTC strongly suggests that aggressive portfolios buy puts on the E-mini Nasdaq June 2008 contract. POTC is highly confident the Nasdaq will break down and close the gap in the 2,300 - 2,350 range rather abruptly, and here are the reasons why:
1. Lehman Brothers (LEH) reports second quarter earnings this week;
2. The unemployment rate is rising;
3. Prices for crude (and everything derived from it) and food continue to rise;
4. The destruction of real estate and credit;
5. The panic over global inflation only getting louder;
6. China's continuing earth quake fall out;
7. The hurricane season is upon us, and last but not least;
8. The UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE UPCOMING JUNE 25TH FOMC meeting,
We're compelled to buy puts on the E-mini Nasdaq June 2008 contract. How do you interpret this data? (Please feel free to leave a comment.)
This blog is undergoing a facelift of sorts in the following days, as we transition to a hand picked core blogger role on a highly regarded and transparent portal. The Psychology in the Upcoming Week's Economic & Earnings Data which has received very positive feedback from you will be a staple of our business mission going forward. POTC feels investors/traders have an edge in knowing what, when, and how to anticipate economic and earnings data in the week ahead. Trades must be made looking-forward, anticipating the future collective psychology of the herd, which is much more often wrong than right. Too much time and effort is spent on paid sites like Motley Fool, Seeking Alpha and Minnyanville, for example, attempting to handicap and lure you into position trading. We know position trading rarely makes you money, as volatility shakes you out. Jim Cramer is another talking head we distance ourselves from, as he continually misleads his viewers in believing there is a "bull market somewhere". POTC believes in times of stock market panic, as is upon us now, the only bull market is called the bond market and even that investment theory sometimes fails. Therefore, we stress the 11 Commandments of Investing and the 7 Psychological Pillars, and ask that you never underestimate any of the Commandments, especially the 2nd and 10th.
Thank you for returning to our growing blog spot. We are privileged to have you aboard as a student of the market, not merely a follower of the latest fad/trend/stock. The Psychology of the Call team wishes all a healthy & profitable week.
Saturday, June 7, 2008
Our Bearish Call
1) Election year;
1) Rising Unemployment;
Friday, June 6, 2008
The Upcoming Psychology of Oil, Politics and Everything
Thanks for your Friday attention. We will no longer be providing the Psychology of the Upcoming Week's Data on this blog. We have big changes in the works in the upcoming weeks, specifically the relocation of our blog to a highly regarded blog site (further details coming up soon) and the launch of a website that will host the Psychology of the Week's Data, intraday updates, recommendations, and so much more.
To all our readers and supporters, we wish you a weekend filled with good friends and good cheer! We leave you with the 11 Commandments and the seven psychological pillars, all of which are so vital to your long term success:
The Psychology of the Call team.


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Saturday, 4 September 2010
Anyway the thing I don't get is before the universe there would be no 'law such as gravity' because there would be nothing, and so surely the universe could not create itself according to his reasoning? What am I missing here? Someone must know physics well enough - I've already tried all my friends!
5 comments:
I honestly have no idea why people think Hawking would know anything more than anyone ells on religion/god.ReplyDelete
The whole God-discussion is a part of the meta-physic,not the physics, which he is an expert on.
It is incredible how the religion debate seems to be turning more and more into religion vs physics, which is pretty weird as religion is meta-physic and physic is... well physic, so they don't describe the same thing.
Hope you understand my message :P
Hawking has repeatedly used the word "God" (in metaphorical meanings) to illustrate points made in his books and public speeches. His ex-wife, Jane said during their divorce proceedings that he was an atheist. Hawking has stated that he is "not religious in the normal sense" and he believes that "the universe is governed by the laws of science. The laws may have been decreed by God, but God does not intervene to break the laws." Hawking compared religion and science in 2010, saying: "There is a fundamental difference between religion, which is based on authority, science, which is based on observation and reason. Science will win because it works." On September 2010, Hawking was reported to have written in his new book The Grand Design that the laws of physics can create the universe out of nothing, it doesn't require God and that his previous use of the word "God" was merely rhetorical.ReplyDelete
Hope this helps to clear it up.
Alright thanks a lot guys, I knew someone would be able to help :)ReplyDelete
The big bang never happened, the universe has always existed and will always exist. The reason galaxies are moving away from each other is because the universe is a huge bubble orbiting another even bigger universeReplyDelete
I think the important thing is just that something can be created from nothing so a creator isn't needed to create the something. I have no idea on his reasoning how something comes from nothing, or how it will be proven, I may just have to buy his new book.ReplyDelete
I do know that Hawking radiation (energy black holes give off) relies on particles and antiparticles being created in empty space from nothing (as long as the sum of matter and energy is = 0), which might be related to what he's going on about now.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Saturday, 15 March 2014
Special wishes for a special lady
11 comments:
What a really sweet thought Pauline and a lovely card. This must have really cheered up your friend. Our cat Billy is like our second family and is sitting here purring as I type ;0) xReplyDelete
Hi Pauline, this is a wonderful card to cheer up a friend, subtle and not too bright at all. Hope you're doing okay. Ruby xReplyDelete
What a lovely card and such a thoughtful gesture. I bet your friend was thrilled to receive it. Thank you for joining us at Frilly and Funkie. Jenny xReplyDelete
What a lovely card for your friend. All the elements including the dies give this card a feeling of nature. Thanks for joining us at Frilly and Funkie.ReplyDelete
Beautiful flowery card! Lovely design with the wood butterflies as accents! It has me thinking of spring! Thanks for playing along with us in the Simon Says Stamp Monday Challenge!ReplyDelete
Gorgeous card Pauline and am sure Jennifer really appreciates this too, very thoughtful of you :-)ReplyDelete
thanks for joining us on the Papertake Weekly Challenge
Lols x x x
What a wonderful project Pauline. Thank you for sharing it with us at Stampin for the Weekend and good luck in our challenge!ReplyDelete
Love your card Pauline, it is so delicate and the flowers and butterflies are lovely! Such a lovely thought as well! Thanks for joining our Mother's Day or Special lady challenge at Sweet Stampin' this week and good luck, Love Jacky xReplyDelete
What a pretty card!ReplyDelete
Thank you for participating in this week's Sweet Stampin' Challenge!
This beautiful creation is sitting on my marble top washstand. It is even more stunning in real life!!!ReplyDelete
I have thanked you in an email, Pauline, but I just want to say "thank you" again. Your thoughtfulness means so much to me.
BIG Hugs,
Jennifer. x
Beautiful, Pauline - such an elegant card.ReplyDelete
Thanks for joining us at A Gem of a Challenge.
Helen x


text:
Anyway, here's the original recipe. I got it off of Allrecipes, because I somehow lost my banana bread recipe :-(
1 1/2 cups all-purpose flour
1 tsp. baking powder
1 tsp. baking soda
1/2 tsp. salt
3 large bananas, mashed
3/4 cup white sugar
1 egg
1/3 cup butter, melted
Preheat oven to 350 degrees F.
Coat muffin pans with non-stick spray, or use paper liners.
Sift together the flour, baking powder, baking soda, and salt; set aside.
Combine bananas, sugar, egg, and melted butter in a large bowl. Fold in flour mixture, and mix until smooth. Scoop into muffin pans.
Bake in preheated oven. Bake mini muffins for 10 to 15 minutes, and large muffins for 25 to 30 minutes (I made large, and they only took about 20 minutes, so watch out). Muffins will spring back when lightly tapped.
Makes 12 large muffins or 48 mini muffins.
Peace and Dee Love,


text:
At some point, Chris Pastras decided he had to grow out of his brother's shadow. That kind of process does take a minute when the brother in question is Rodney Smith, one of the founders of Shut skateboards, a company so iconic in the '80s "that I remember Julien Stranger and Eric Dressen asking us for Shut stickers at some amateur contest in Arizona", Chris laughs a good twenty years later. Yet, he did it and sailed way out West. The bold move allowed him to nail a part in Rubbish Heap (street skating's Das Kapital, if Karl Marx had slapped on the fish-eye) before starting two companies with co-captain Jason Lee, Blue and Stereo. A journey through so many souvenirs that Agent 547 had to struggle to only pick five boards. But bravely he dared, demounting the decks that decorate the walls in his office and in his perched Echo park home. Here's what the former Dune has to say about them.
(Oh, and now you can click on the photos to see the boards bigger. That's the tech-est I've gone so far!)
World Industries Dune (1990)
Artwork by Marc Mc Kee
"This is my first board, Rocco turned me and Randy Colvin pro kind of on a dime, Mike V had just left so I think Steve didn't really know who else to give a board to. The nickname Dune, Rodney [Smith] came up with it. I used to do imitations of this Vietnamese kid Martin, so my brother called me 'Mardune' just because I was imitating him so well, and it morphed into Dune. But I had all kinds of nicknames. One was T. Bass, after the crazy Andy Griffith hobo character who was smashing windows, I got it after I smashed our godfather's car window.
Anyway, I did get to pick the graphics, it was from a children book, the baby was actually White and Marc Mc Kee turned him Afro-American. We developed this deck at the same time than Mike's barnyard deck, and I actually thought that Mike's wasn't really functional, cause it was too square. Me and Rodney [Mullen] worked on this shape and this board sold really well, it was insane, over time they sold maybe 12,000 of these.
It was actually the first double tail that was functional, so I wanted big graphics on both sides just to nail home the double thing. I mean, it has shape to it but had that huge nose because I did a lot of nollies then. So many that Mark Gonzales called me 'nollie'!"
Blue knife & fork board (1992)
Artwork by Andy Jenkins
"This one was my first board on Blue. It was inspired by a book about old diners that my friend Don Bruno gave me. I kinda came up with the idea of the diner thing and then brought it to Andy Jenkins. He whipped that out in like two seconds flat, I was blown away. Unfortunately, that's the only graphic he did for us. Blue was the company I started started with Jason Lee, and then Kareem Campbell jumped in. It happened because World Industries was kinda coming to a close. Rodney Mullen was hushering in all these new kids, this is when pros only lasted two years, and I was getting nervous, I just knew I wasn't gonna last. So the minute someone gave me an opportunity to be on the other side of the fence and be creative, I jumped on it.
Blue had retro-design influences, it wasn't named after [the jazz label] Blue Note, I hadn't really heard of it at the time. Blue was just my favorite color, and this board just epitomized the vibe of the graphics we were going for." Stereo Blue Note board (1993) Artwork by Chris Pastras "This is actually inspired by a Blue Note album, can't remember which one though. My dad was a jazz musician so I grew up around jazz my whole life. At first I was aware of it but I wasn't a fan until I was 19, it kinda all came together cause we were going for the retro stuff with Blue.
I got reintroduced to jazz with Stereo. Then my friend Eli at X-Large showed me the Blue Note book that just came out [Graham Marsh's Blue Note: Album Cover Art] and he helped me put together some of the graphics. It all just kinda clicked. Jazz was always a part of me, but I never paid attention to it because there was so much of it around in my childhood."
Stereo NY Way Out East (2004)
Artwork by Chris Pastras
"This is the New York board for the Way Out East video, with its drawing of the Empire State Building. It was cool for us because we got to go to three of our favorite cities to film that video. I remember a lot of people rode this board for its color too, it was pretty vibrant.
I'm pretty proud of this one cause I did the lettering, the cut outs and the little cityscape in the background. I just wanted Way Out East to be have this kind of wacky, '60s travel theme to it but I didn't really have a distinct inspiration for this graphic. I mean, I've always liked the artwork in all the Tim Burton stuff, and I've always liked Mary Blair, the artist for the original Disney stuff as seen in It's a Small World. Playboy magazine from the '60s, too.
This is also why this board is so special to me : New York City is a super big part of my history. So yeah, it was kinda an ode to New York City, as cheesy as it sounds."
Stereo Totem board (2008)
Artwork by Chris Pastras
"As far as artwork, this is my favorite board because it's a real painting. I love to draw buildings and I love to draw people, hence the totem, it's like drawing building-people! This is a theme I've had going on for a few years and at first, this one wasn't meant to be on a deck. I used acrylic, oil stick and charcoal pencil and just painted it about a year before the board came out, on some plank I found in the street, then hung it in my office.The art guys thought it would look good on a skateboard, I'm glad we gave it a shot.
It's kinda political too, it says 'Peace and Love, let's pray for our president and our pompous nation.' That was done before we had hope for a new president. At the time it was depressing to see our country crumble. I mean, we're the cocky ones that don't realize how out of style being cocky is… Anyway yeah, I am so stoked also how well the 4-color process works these days: you can see the textures, the breaks in the wood and even the brush strokes!"


text:
Arsenal Hammers Chelsea 5-3 At Stamford Bridge (Photos): Check out this photos of arsenal's great win over Chelsea.
This is a great comeback for the Arsenal team and I ...
Saturday, October 29, 2011
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Dele Aiyenugba Refuse To Be blameed for Afcon failure
Nigeria goalkeeper Dele Aiyenguba has rejected accusations he is responsible for Nigeria's failure to qualify for next year's African Cup of Nations despite conceding two goals against Guinea.
"I personally feel unhappy that we didn't qualify for the Nations Cup and I still can't explain why it is so but I don't think one person should be singled out for the blame because all of us took part in the match," Aiyenugba told SuperSport.com.
"If we had won and qualified we will all take the credit. But now that we [missed out on qualifying], I believe we should all take the blame for failing and not say it was Dele or someone else who caused it."
However, the 27year-old apologized to the fans for the team's failure to qualify for the tournament.
"Our fans deserve more than qualifying for the Nations Cup but we have let them down," he said.
Olympic Captaincy: Who Can Handle It Better Than Beckham?
To include Beckam in the squad seems tempting. He is, after all, heralded from the very territory in which the Olympic stadium now stands. We could happily indulge a fond farewell to the golden boy, a fitting tear-jerker to pay homage to an ambassador who brought the Games to London. The resulting back-page jingoism would certainly make for a fine Olympic souvenir.
The glorified encore, though, an exercise in sycophancy and a concession to sentimentality, would be of little benefit.
The shadow of Beckam would surely loom large over the squad. His aura of celebrity and the accompanying paparazzi would reintroduce the aforementioned press attention. An unwelcome distraction, the inevitable media carnival would only hinder the squad's capacity to focus on the task at hand.
Needless to say, of course, that the weight of Brand Beckam will also be a valuable marketing asset to the Games of the XXX Olmpiad. Naïve are those who believe that Beckam's likely inclusion will be decided by the manager alone. What kind of lesson does this send to Britain's young footballers?
More important than any of this, though, is the fact that there are plenty of eligible players who would offer more in a competitive sense. Of the over-23 brigade likely to be excluded from the Euro's, Jonathan Woodgate, Phil Neville, Paul Robinson, Joe Cole and Danny Murphy, to name but a handful, all represent better choices. England ought to be teaching young players that merit alone is the sole arbiter of selection for the national team.
'Beckham Fever': Paris Can'y Resist
Moving to Paris may come with an exorbitant salary for David Beckham, but the ex-Manchester United winger is adamant about the happiness of his family. Obviously, this serves as a possible sticking point for any team who desire David Beckham's multi-service, let alone Paris Saint-Germain. In addition, Beckham has made no secret of his desire to return to the Premier League. A sporting director role at his beloved Manchester United has been mooted, whereas Tottenham Hotspur and Queens Park Rangers are said to be interested in adding Beckham to their respective squads.
Reports suggesting that David Beckham is poised to join Paris Saint-Germain are premature. However, the rumours continue to circulate and Beckham hasn't exactly poured cold water over the idea. Is David Beckham's fame to shine in the City of Lights?
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Duncan Ferguson Renders Free Sevice As Coach In Everton
Duncan Ferguson is back at Everton and working for free in a bid to earn a coaching career.
Big Dunc, a Goodison legend after an 11-year stay over two spells, has been working with the Blues youngsters.
The 6ft 4in former striker has been putting in 12-hour days largely with the club's Under-16s.
And he has made such an impression that boss David Moyes has admitted he could become part of the backroom team.
Moyes revealed: "Duncan isn't a qualified coach yet, but we have got him in and he's happy working down at the academy.
"He's showing he wants to do it. He is putting the hours and the effort in.
"He still has to get his B licence and A licence but he is shadowing Academy chief Alan Irvine.
"Could it lead to something here? It could do, but you need your qualifications and that is the first thing.
"I didn't foresee him going into coaching but he he has come back and I think he misses the smell of football a bit."
Manchester Obtains Favour From Meteo Kovacic To Sign Up Luka Modric
Sir Alex Ferguson is reportedly confident of seeing off the challenge from the Gunners – as well as other European giants like Juventus and Bayern Munich – because of the 17-year-old's personal desire to move to Old Trafford.
'United have made it clear they are looking at Kovacic in a big way and they think he is a future star,' a source told Goal.com.
'His age and price tag means January will probably be too soon but the feedback is that the player's preference would be a move to Old Trafford and United are favourites to sign him.'
Kovacic, who has been likened to Spurs schemer Modric, was slapped with a £10m price tag by Dinamo in order to scare off interest from Arsene Wenger, who was closely monitoring the midfielder's situation in the summer.
However, after the Gunners baulked at the original quote, United feel they'll have plenty of time to make their move for Kovacic at the end of the season, rather than rushing through a deal in January.
The player himself also gave encouraging signs to United last month, when he revealed he was flattered by their interest in him.
Tevez Finally moves to Boca
Boca Juniors have been priced out of an audacious move to re-sign Carlos Tevez.
Buenos Aires-based Boca were considering a cheeky bid to bring Tevez back to the club, where he started his career as a 16-year-old, in an emergency loan move.
But the Argentinians have had to admit defeat, because of the Manchester City outcast's £250,000-a-week salary.
Boca were hoping that either Tevez would slash his wage demands or that City would subsidise his huge salary, but they have had to admit both are highly unlikely.
Brazil's Corinthians - another of Tevez's former clubs - are the only South American side with the money to sign the striker, and they claim they will renew their interest in the winter transfer window.Juventus, who failed with a bid to sign Tevez in the summer, and AC Milan are also preparing bids for January.
The 27-year-old will finally learn his punishment for allegedly refusing to play against Bayern Munich when he appears before a City disciplinary hearing this week.
Monday, October 17, 2011
Xavi: Scores a Total Of 41 Goals
Poacher, chip and header
Xavi has got his goals in a variety of ways this season, with a classic poacher's strike at Anoeta after a pass from Alexis Sánchez, a lovely chip at the Camp Nou in the 8-0 win over Osasuna and his header on Saturday from Pedro's cross.
Three goals in the last two seasons
Xavi has thus equalled his goal tally from the last two seasons in just the first couple of months of this year's league campaign. Last year he scored in the 1-5 win over Espanyol, the 1-3 win at San Mames and the 5-0 thrashing of Real Madrid at the Camp Nou. In the 2009/10 season, he scored against Valladolid (1-3), Villarreal (1-4) and at home to Getafe (2-1). In neither season, nor in the previous two, did he manage to score in the first seven games.
Arsen Wenger Praise' Van Persie
Arsène Wenger believes that Robin van Persie's commitment to Arsenal was encapsulated by his performance against Sunderland.
The Dutchman used his programme notes to reaffirm his allegiance to the Club and went on to score the goals that secured a vital 2-1 victory. Van Persie's manager had nothing but praise for his captain when he spoke to Arsenal Player after the game.
"There is no better way [to show your commitment to the Club]," said Wenger.
"People speak about the length of contracts but what you want from a player, as long as he is at the Club, is to give absolutely 100 per cent. On that front you cannot fault Robin. He is committed, every day he is focused in training, and I am pleased that he got two goals again.
"It was a special moment from Van Persie to win the game but overall I was pleased with the team performance," Wenger added.
"I think when we got back to 2-1 we wanted to protect our goal but we looked quite comfortable and I must say the central defence was strong. Mertesacker goes from strength to strength and Koscielny had a very good game."
Rosick: Arsenal midfielder says "We've learned our European lessons"
Arsène Wenger's side have started their European campaign brightly with four points from their opening two fixtures and will look to continue their unbeaten run when they travel to Marseille on Wednesday night.
Last season the Gunners won their opening three matches in the Group Stage before eventually finishing second in the table to set up a last-16 encounter with eventual champions Barcelona.
Rosicky admits that topping Group F this time around is the priority.
"It must be our aim to win the group, especially after what happened to us last year when we were not top of the group," he said. "In the last three games we messed up.
"Marseille are a direct contender for us who would like to qualify from the group as well.
"It's a big game and we want to be successful there. It looks like it will be between us, Dortmund and Marseille so it will be a vital game for us."
Mancini Happy To Remain At Manchester City
Manchester City manager Roberto Mancini would like to stay at the club he has taken to the top of the Premier League for another three or four years, he said on Monday.
The Italian, whose contract runs until 2013, led the club to their first major silverware in 35 years in the FA Cup last season and this weekend saw his team overtake Manchester United at the top of the league.
"I started to work here two years ago, I have worked hard to build a good team," Mancini told a news conference ahead of Tuesday's Champions League Group A game at home to Villarreal.
"I would like to stay here another three or four years because I think at this moment Manchester City is one of the best clubs in the world."
Since owner Sheikh Mansour took over three years ago, City have spent more than 600 million pounds building a team with Mancini bringing in the likes of Mario Balotelli, Sergio Aguero, David Silva and Edin Dzeko.
The Italian said he had yet to talk to the club about a new contract but if he were to extend it he would provide them with the stability that was absent before his arrival, when they had three different managers in three years.
While City have become a force to be reckoned with domestically, their debut season in the Champions League is proving much rockier even if Mancini still thinks they can win the group.
With just one point from their opening two games, City are third behind Bayern Munich and Napoli in the table and know only a win will do against bottom club Villarreal.
City have won admirers for their free-scoring ways in the Premier League, having netted 27 goals in eight games, but Mancini is prepared to let style go out of the window against the Spanish team in the quest for victory.
"It is not important if we play well or not well, it is important we win this game," he said. "If we win I think we can also win the group - it's possible, we have a chance.
"Villarreal are a good team, they are used to playing in the Champions League for many years."
City's last Champions League outing at Bayern is remembered not for their 2-0 defeat but for the debacle surrounding Carlos Tevez's alleged refusal to come on as a second-half substitute.
The Argentina striker, who has served a two-week club suspension and faces disciplinary action after an internal investigation, denies Mancini's accusation that he refused to play.
Tevez said he was asked to warm up but felt he had already done so enough.
The issue has been a black cloud hovering above otherwise sunny days for the club, and one they have avoided discussing publicly as the matter has repeatedly been declared off limits in Mancini's news conferences.
Even the manager saw the funny side, though, when one reporter referred to the story that overtook events in Munich.
"What story?" he grinned.
Hillsborough Disaster: Claimed 96 lives
Get a glimpse of what happened in 1989 at Hillsborough.
Hillsborough Papers Should Be Released - MPs
Ministers should release all government documents relating to the Hillsborough disaster, MPs have agreed following a debate in the House of Commons.
MP Steve Rotheram, opening the debate, said there had been a campaign to blame Liverpool fans. He called on the prime minister to issue a formal apology.
Home Secretary Theresa May told MPs the government supported the release of all papers, via an independent panel.
Ninety-six Liverpool fans died in the disaster in April 1989.
The debate was sparked by 140,000 people signing an e-petition.
Mr Rotheram, whose Walton constituency includes Anfield, said David Cameron had apologised to the victims of Bloody Sunday and called on him to do the same for those affected by Hillsborough.
'Look for scapegoats'
"I call on the prime minister to make a statement in this house and apologise for the mistakes that were made and the mishandling of this whole tragedy on behalf of a previous government," he said.
The Labour MP attacked the "smears" and "establishment cover-up" which led to fans initially being blamed for the disaster.
"Instead of those at fault taking responsibility for their actions, a co-ordinated campaign began to shift the blame and look for scapegoats," he said.
"It is claimed that truth is the first casualty of war, but the same can be said of Hillsborough.
"Misdirection, obfuscation and damned lies were all used as smokescreens to deflect attention away from the guilty."
Mr Rotheram attacked claims that Liverpool fans had turned up late, without tickets and were drinking heavily.
'Lost control'
A "senior police officer and a Conservative MP" leaked stories to the press about the disaster, he said.
He criticised the Sun newspaper over its "The Truth" headline and its story about drunken and criminal behaviour by Liverpool fans.
The cause of the tragedy was clear from Lord Justice Taylor's report, he said, "which concluded that the police fundamentally lost control of the situation and did not demonstrate the leadership expected of senior officers".
The match commander told the FA that Liverpool fans had rushed a gate, creating the crush. "This disgraceful lie set the tone for all that came later," he said.
Mr Rotheram said the "misinformation" began almost as soon as the match, a FA Cup semi-final tie between Liverpool and Nottingham Forest, was abandoned.
Mr Rotheram read out the names of the 96 who had died, as campaigners looked on from the public gallery.
Home Secretary Theresa May apologised for any anxiety caused by the decision to oppose a Freedom of Information request from the BBC but it was right that the families should receive the information first as they needed to be treated with "dignity and respect".
Mrs May said: "I will do everything in my power to ensure the families and the public get the truth.
"No government papers will be withheld from the panel, no attempts to suppress publication will be made, no stone left unturned."
'Act of brutality'The independent Hillsborough panel already has some cabinet papers, she said.But she said there may be some "minor redactions", including the names of some junior civil servants and the details of the victims' medical files, which would be a matter for the panel.Mr Burnham, speaking for the opposition, said the disaster and the events following it, were "one of the biggest injustices of the 20th Century".He said moves to blame the victims for the tragedy were "unprecedented". He added: "It was an unbelievable act of brutality against the 96 fans."Mr Burnham also read from police papers which quoted an officer who watched as fans used advertising hoardings to ferry the injured.A senior officer had written that the pages should be amended because "these are his own feelings" and said the comments showed "they were organised and we were not".Mr Burnham said he had "private disappointments" that more had not been done to reveal the truth under the previous Labour government.He said the House of Commons coming together behind the families of the 96 who had died was a "huge moment".Other MPs were then called to speak in the debate.Labour MP for Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle called for News International to disclose who had briefed The Sun on its story.Sheffield South East MP Clive Betts, leader of Sheffield City Council at the time, was at the game. The Labour MP said he remembered returning the following day and crying."What else could you do? This was in our city, in my football ground, 96 people had died before our eyes. What else could you do?"Cchampme
Magaye Gueye Of Everton's Left 'Shaken' By Thievery
Everton footballer Magaye Gueye was described as "shaken" after thieves forced their way into his home.
The 21-year-old French winger was threatened at about 01:30 BST on Sunday as he went to his car outside his apartment in Sefton Park, Liverpool.
Merseyside police said Mr Gueye was approached by three men who forced him to let them into his flat.
The robbers, described as black and in their late 20s, stole cash, his mobile phone and other items.
Everton Football club said he was "shaken but unhurt" and that the player was helping police with their inquiries.
Saturday, October 8, 2011
Nigerie Versus Guinea
So many football loving Nigerians are disappointed today over the inability of the Supper Eagles to win the match against Guinea. A win was just all the supper eagles needed to qualify for the Nations cup but unfortunately ended in a draw (Nigeria 2:Guinea 2). this unfortunate match for the Nigerians has cost them the opportunity of participating in the Nations cup. This is the first time in history after 25 years that Nigeria would not be playing at the Nations cup.
Sunday, October 2, 2011
You Are Welcome
football is a universal game with a world wide attention and is loved by many people. football is a game that has been able to gather one of the greatest number of people in a place. it's a game that cuts across various tribes and religions and has been able to unite so many race probably with no conscious effort. The love of this game makes it possible for even enemies to sit on the same bench just to watch a match. This blog will provide you with latest information about football players, clubs, and general issues concerning football all around the world. stay connected.
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Fallout: New Vegas - Honest Hearts DLC-SKIDROW - Mediafire
Saturday, June 25, 2011 0 komentar
Fallout New Vegas Honest Hearts DLC-SKIDROW | 1.9 Gb
Publisher: Bethesda Softworks | Developer: Obsidian Entertainment | Genre: Add-on (Content pack) / RPG / 3D / 1st Person / 3rd Person| Platform: PC |
Size: 1.9 Gb | Release Date: 2011
Size: 1.9 Gb | Release Date: 2011
Honest Hearts takes you on an expedition to the unspoiled wilderness of Utah's Zion National Park. Things go horribly wrong when your caravan is ambushed by a tribal raiding band. As you try to find a way back to the Mojave, you become embroiled in a war between tribes and a conflict between a New Canaanite missionary and the mysterious Burned Man. The decisions you make will determine the fate of Zion.
- New Terrain: Navigate the highs and lows of the steep canyon walls, caves, riverbeds, waterfalls and explore the lush landscapes and rugged terrain in beautiful and sprawling Zion Canyon.
- New Enemies: From the deadly Yao Guai and exotically lethal Greek Geckos to new hostile tribals, Zion Canyon is as dangerous as it is beautiful.
- New Perks and Weapons: Survive the wild with Tribal Wisdom or exact increased damage with Eye for Eye. Honest Hearts offers a host of new perks and weapons including the .45 Auto Pistol, .45 Auto Submachine Gun, the Compliance Regular, Fire Bombs, War Clubs, and Yao Guai Gauntlets.
System requirements:
- OS: Windows XP, Vista or Windows 7
- CPU: Pentium Dual Core 2.5GHz or similar AMD
- HDD: 1 GB free disk space
- Sound Card: DirectX 9 Compatible
- DirectX: Version 9
Download Here :
N o t e:If you find the download file is corrupted,
use Rar Recovery Toolbox to repair it, and simultaneously to extract.
and if there are dead links Click Here to report.
Thanks for your visit.
Special Thanks to: isalgames.blogspot.com
Im Not Uploader, Im link finder So Please check the link before download. Spesial Thanks To UPLOADER


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|Coq au Vin
Making Coq au Vin requires several steps, so you need a chunk of 2 plus hours to make this recipe. I knew I had time the time so I really looked forward to "playing" with food today. Yes, playing with food is what I said. Come on, those of you who love to cook or bake know what I mean…cooking for the mere act of self pleasure and entertainment! I had so much fun making this meal and the end result was OMG delicious. My favorite part of making this recipe was pouring an entire bottle a bold red wine into my Le Creuset dutch oven. No, it didn't call for a measly one cup of wine, it called for one flipp'n bottle…how awesome is that! My second favorite part was browning the chicken and bacon because it created the most flavorful aroma throughout the house. The boys were playing football outside and as soon as they stepped in the house they were like "Wow, it smells soooo good. What are you making?" I explained I was making Coq au Vin and of course they got a chuckle out of pronouncing the name but also said "What is that?" So I told them Coq au Vin is, in other words, a french chicken stew. Honestly, as long as it smells good, looks good, and tastes good they don't care what their food is called…nor does Dave for that matter!
Let me talk about taste for a minute…when I mentioned as soon as I woke up this morning I knew I wanted to make a recipe that would satisfy my mind, body and soul…this dish's taste and flavor over satisfied if that's even possible. The chicken was so tender and juicy it fell off the bone, the red wine sauce was rich tasting with layers of flavor you didn't want to put your fork down, and the vegetables soaked up the medley of herbs and spices which made it take on a whole new taste. I served the stew over egg noodles because they are light and airy but you could serve them over mashed potatoes or any pasta or serve them over nothing. I also served a crusty french bread on the side so we could soak up all of the juices from our bowls. And I made sure to buy an extra bottle of french wine that the recipe called for so we could have a glass (or two) with dinner. This meal created quite a positive food impression on all of us. It was simply divine!
If you are looking to make a quintessential fall meal; one that will truly satisfy your mind, body and soul like it did ours, then look no further. Salute to Coq au Vin, or in other words French Chicken Stew!
|Medley of ingredients
|Sauteing Vegetables in the bacon and chicken oil
|Browned chicken and bacon
|Adding one bottle of good, rich red french wine!
|Zachary chopping the fresh herbs
|Love when my boys help me cook and create a delicious family meal!
|Just out of the oven
|Coq au Vin over egg noodles
Preparation and Cook Time: 2 hours
Serves: 6
- 1 roasting chicken cut into pieces
- 2 large yellow onions peeled and chopped
- 3 shallots peeled and chopped
- 5 carrots peeled and sliced
- 3 garlic cloves peeled
- 1 tb chopped parsley
- 2 tb chopped thyme
- 1/2 t black pepper
- 1 bay leaf
- 1 bottle of good rich red wine like bordeaux or burgundy
- 1/4 cup vegetable oil
- 2 tb flour
- 1/4 cup cognac
- 3 thick cut pieces of bacon, diced
- 1 lb of small white button mushrooms
- 3 tb tomato paste
- 1 cup beef stock
Using a large dutch oven, heat oil over medium to high heat. Salt and pepper chicken pieces and brown on both sides until crisp. Add garlic gloves. When chicken is browned set aside on a platter. In same pan add bacon pieces and brown for about 10 minutes. Remove bacon bits from pan and set aside along with chicken. Add onions, carrots, mushrooms and shallots and cook until al dente about 10-15 minutes on medium heat. Add flour to vegetables and mix well. Add beef stock to scrape pan of the chicken and bacon bits. Add parsley, thyme, bay leaf, and pepper and stir. Add chicken and bacon back to the pan and add cognac. Then add bottle of wine. Heat over medium to high heat for 15 minutes. Add tomato paste and stir until well blended in wine sauce. Pre-heat oven to 350 degrees. bake in oven for 30 to 40 minutes until chicken is cooked through and vegetables are tender. Meanwhile, cook 1 package of egg noodles according to package. When done, add a spoonful of egg noodles to a bowl and add a large spoonful of chicken and it's red wine sauce over top. Serve with crusty french bread.
Food Impressions:
Nate: "I love the sauce over the noodles and the chicken is so tender and juicy."
Tyler: "Every time I take a forkful I get something different. Once it's bacon, then it's chicken then it's a piece of carrot. I think the combination of all of the ingredients are super delicious."
Zachary: "This Coq au Vin or however you pronounce it is really yummy. I love the sauce and it tastes so good dipping the bread in it. Oh, and the mushrooms are so meaty tasting."
Dave: "This is the best Coq au Vin you've made. The sauce has depth and there are just layers of flavor every time you take a bite. The chicken is perfectly cooked, the vegetables aren't overly tender or mushy, and the egg noodles pair well. The wine is also a perfect pair with this dish."
Andrea: "I must admit, this dish was outstanding. The reaction of Dave and the boys regarding this recipe was priceless. This dish is quintessential fall comfort. It is great for a Sunday family dinner or it's great to serve for a fancy dinner party. I'm glad there were some leftovers so I can have it for lunch the next day. It takes a few hours to make but if you are in the mood to play with food, as I said in this post, you will truly enjoy yourself in the process. Absolutely delicious meal. Make sure to have plenty of crusty bread to soak up the juices, oh and don't forget to buy and extra bottle of wine to serve with it!"
|Nate enjoying his meal
|Zachary soaking up the juices with his french bread!


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The Lost Girl by Sangu Mandanna
Eva's life is not her own. She is a creation, an abomination—an echo. Made by the Weavers as a copy of someone else, she is expected to replace a girl named Amarra, her "other", if she ever died. Eva studies what Amarra does, what she eats, what it's like to kiss her boyfriend, Ray. So when Amarra is killed in a car crash, Eva should be ready.Releases in US: Aug 28th 2012
But fifteen years of studying never prepared her for this.
Now she must abandon everything she's ever known—the guardians who raised her, the boy she's forbidden to love—to move to India and convince the world that Amarra is still alive.
What Eva finds is a grief-stricken family; parents unsure how to handle this echo they thought they wanted; and Ray, who knew every detail, every contour of Amarra. And when Eva is unexpectedly dealt a fatal blow that will change her existence forever, she is forced to choose: Stay and live out her years as a copy or leave and risk it all for the freedom to be an original. To be Eva.
From debut novelist Sangu Mandanna comes the dazzling story of a girl who was always told what she had to be—until she found the strength to decide for herself.
Source: author/Harper Collins Balzer Bray for honest review
I immediately liked Eva, Amarra's echo. She has a passion and a fire in her that I really admire. I'm drawn into this paranormal dystopia and fascinated by the world that Sangu Mandanna has created. I totally understood and connected with the questions that Eva had about her society... Why would parents want a copy of their child? If something happened, Eva wouldn't magically be Amarra even though she knows all the details of her life and looks like her.
The beginning drew me right in with her breaking the rules and the fear that she has to live under. But I love how it's set up with Mina Ma and Sean and all the others who protect and love her. I feel for her when she has to go and replace Amarra.
I really enjoyed the dynamic though between Eva and Sasha, the little sister. I love how she gets over her shyness and seems to accept Eva for who she is. I really appreciate when a family relationship or friendship is well written, and although I waver on which to classify this as, it can be both. Though it's really sad to watch Alisha, Amarra's mom when she first meets Eva, she is so convinced that Amarra's soul just moved on to Eva's body. As a mother I cannot imagine being in this situation and how she must feel. I'm sure that like her I would cling to every bit of hope that I could.
I loved the stolen moments with Eva and Sean. The hope in their relationship was beautiful and it was so hard when it shattered, but I have every hope that they can pick up the pieces.
The theme of price of freedom is prevalent in this book, and it is so hard to watch Eva wrestle with what she is willing to sacrifice and with what it ends up costing her in the end.
Matthew is one of the weavers, and he is maddening. I totally could not figure him out, but I kept expecting him around every corner. He is a form of bad guy with motives that I could never really grasp, but that is the point to his character. It feels like he absolutely knows everything and does the unexpected.
Bottom line: Great premise, awesome character I rooted for, and deep topic that made me think.
Would you want to transfer your soul to an echo (someone made as your copy) if you died to live on?


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Hello everyone ! Yesterday I attended the Neiman Marcus fall runway 2014 with my friend Adriana de Moura ( The Real Housewife of Miami .Bravo TV ) ! The event was held at Bal Harbour shops in Miami. On the runway a lot of colorful furs, sequins, leather and fringe was seen on the models. The New York fashion guru Caroline Maguire was a host of the event ! it is always a pleasure get invited by the store! Beijosss
Or my work www.carlamccarthy.com


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Last night during a FOX News Democratic presidential town hall, U.S. Senator and presidential candidate Bernie Sanders was asked by Brett Baier if he could "name a single circumstance, at any point in the pregnancy, in which (he) would be okay with abortion being illegal?"
Senator Bernie Sanders was not able to name a single instance in which he thinks abortion should be illegal. This means Bernie Sanders thinks elective abortion should be legal throughout all nine months of pregnancy.
You can watch the video of his answer below.


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Learn How by Clicking on READ MORE
Step One: Select the Iris. You are going to do this through the Quick Mask Tool. Click the button that is being pointed to in the jepg below (or you can press the Q key) to enter into Quick Mask Mode.
Next you will want to select your brush tool, (make sure your color swatches are set to black and white) and start painting. You should be seeing a red film over the area that you are painting.
It is my personal preference not to include the pupil and reflections in the selection because changing the color in those areas will make the eye color look less real.
Now that you have your selection, you need to take a few steps to actually select the area that you want to change. First, you need to press the Q key to exit Quick Mask Mode, then you need to go to the Select Menu and press Inverse.
Now your selection should look like this.
Step Two: Change the color. From your adjustment layer drop down menu, select a Color Balance layer.
Here are the eyes with the color adjustment made.
Step Three: Add contrast and dimension to the eyes. You are going to make two curves adjustment layers.
One where you are going to lighten the midtones (name this later lighten) and another where you are going to darken the midtones (name this layer darken).
Then you are going to option click the mask button on both of the curves adjustment layers on your layer pallet. This will hide both curves adjustment layers so you will not be able to see them. This is what your layers should look like.
With your lighten curves layer selected, paint with white on the mask in the inner part of the iris to reveal the lighter color. This is what your mask should look like.
Now with your darken curves layer selected, paint with white on the mask in the outer part of the iris to reveal the darker color. This is what your mask should look like.
The darken layer on my eyes was a little harsh so I threw a Gaussian Blur on it at about a 3 or 4.
Now I am going to decrease the opacity to around 60%.
Here is the finished image! Congratulations!
Please post your comments by clicking the link below. If you've got questions, please pose them in our Retouchers and Retouching Discussion Threads.


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I doubt that my bag is particularly interesting. In fact I probably have the most boring items in my bag so I don't blame you if you decide to stop reading now. I really enjoy reading these sorts of posts though and finding out little things about people but I'm not sure you'll gain much knowledge from my extremely typical bagged items but thanks for taking an interest if you're still reading!
My bag itself was a present from my mum. She managed to find it in a charity shop and I'm so glad she decided to buy it for me as I am absolutely in love with it! It's quite small and extremely inconvenient if you're going on a day out but I don't care and I continue to use it anyway as much as I can!
My phone: I honestly don't know how I'd manage without my phone. It is literally so so useful and I use it for absolutely everything. I know some people have a strong dislike for Apple products but I'm afraid I'm on the Apple side for this one. It could not be easier to use (although I must say, the battery life is really terrible on my phone. I'm pretty sure there's a way of charging it so it saves battery but I'm no good at that sort of stuff).
My diary: I always have some kind of calender, diary, or timetable thing on the go. I really like this diary (look how pretty it is!) but I have to admit I don't use it that often. I find it's always useful to have something to write things down on though, as I'm always forgetting things and I am always surrounded by to do lists.
A pen: Never should you go out without a pen. I'm often that person who will come to the rescue when someone needs a pen to fill out a form or write something down, because, well, you never know when it might come in handy!
My sunglasses: They hardly ever appear due to the appalling weather but when they do, I will wear them non-stop for all of summer. I find that my eyes are quite sensitive to the sun (and squinting is certainly not very attractive) so finding a good pair of sunglasses is very important. I managed to find this pair in River Island (£10).
My keys: Always important to make sure you don't get locked out the house.
My makeup: I won't pretend to be one of those beauty-obsessed, I know all about makeup people because I am the complete opposite (seriously, I feel completely lost in Superdrug or Boots), but I don't think anyone can go without a basic foundation and mascara (nothing too complicated!).
A water bottle: It's a sort of trait of mine to bring a water bottle everywhere with me, and I pride myself on it! I don't tend to drink anything other than water during the day (no tea, coffee, fizzy drinks etc. - yes, I'm quite fussy) so having water is essential for a trip out.
A book: You can obviously tell I don't carry this around normally (it wouldn't even fit in my bag!) but if I'm going on a car/train journey I will often bring something to read. This is the book that I'm reading at the moment. It's a thriller/mystery type of book and is actually really good. I tend to stick to the same authors over and over again so that I can be sure that I will enjoy a book but occasionally (such as this time) I will branch out and try something new.
So that is all of the items in my bag. I hope you enjoyed reading this (though I'm sure I bored you half to death) and to continue on the tag, I have tagged Bel from Rags of Love, Jordan from Bambi Legs, Emma from iEmmaFashion, Susanne from Predict the Day and Yinyin from Yinyin Loves.


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Behdad Esfahbod's daily notes on GNOME, Pango, Fedora, Persian Computing, Bob Dylan, and Dan Bern!
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McEs, A Hacker Life
Friday, August 06, 2004
Aryanpur Dictionary
In the early 2004 I started a debate on
Persian Computing
list on how people are infringing copyright of Aryanpur Dictionary data by packaging it in dictionary applications for free download, or even maybe by providing online dictionary service based on this data which seems to be widely copied and
to be in
public domain
I couldn't stop any of them from doing so, and we even exchanged some bad words a couple times. But now things look a bit different: Yesterday Dr Manoochehr Aryanpur-Kashani, one of the authors of the dictionary and several other dictionaries, and was wondering how I got interested in the issue. To me it sounds like a great success, for at least we finally have an access to him. I'm going to ask him to:
Give me permission to follow up the infringement issue. Then I will contact University of Columbia and ask them to remove the dictionary
hosted there
by Dr Pedram Safari,
Ask him consider putting this widely pirated data in public-domain,
Publish a GPLed Persian word list,
Consider providing dictionary web service (of course I can arrange for all the technical part).
I will write down the whole story with links to the posts and everything later for the records.
but they don't have copywrite in Iran
posted by
: April 08, 2009 6:55 PM
you are an idiot. no matter how many laws you create, you can never prevent the free spreading of information
posted by
: December 19, 2009 10:09 AM
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