text:
Things That Make You Go Hmmm...
The Hypocritic Oath
By Grant Williams
August 19, 2013
(Wikipedia): The Hippocratic Oath is an oath historically taken by physicians and other healthcare professionals swearing to practice medicine honestly. It is widely believed to have been written either by Hippocrates, often regarded as the father of western medicine, or by one of his students. The oath is written in Ionic Greek (late 5th century BC), and is usually included in the Hippocratic Corpus. Classical scholar Ludwig Edelstein proposed that the oath was written by Pythagoreans, a theory that has been questioned due to the lack of evidence for a school of Pythagorean medicine. Of historic and traditional value, the oath is considered a rite of passage for practitioners of medicine in many countries, although nowadays the modernized version of the text varies among them.
The Hippocratic Oath (orkos) is one of the most widely known Greek medical texts. It requires a new physician to swear upon a number of healing gods that he will uphold a set of professional ethical standards.
There is absolutely no legal obligation whatsoever for any medical graduate to swear an oath to any healing god; and yet some 98% of American students make such a pledge upon graduation. In Britain, the number is only 50%, but I am presuming that's because dentists are exempted.
The situation in Europe is slightly different. In 1948, the Declaration of Geneva was adopted by the General Assembly of the World Medical Association in, you've guessed it, Geneva in order to standardize the Hippocratic Oath. As is the way of large, global organizations, the General Assembly amended the oath in 1968 ... and 1983 ... and 1994, before it was "editorially revised" in 2005 ... and again in 2006. That's Europe for you, folks.
In accordance with the International Code of Medical Ethics, the Declaration of Geneva was intended to create a formulation of the Hippocratic Oath that would allow "the oath's moral truths [to] be comprehended and acknowledged in a modern way".
Which is nice.
The current version of the Declaration of Geneva (subject, obviously, to further amendment, since I am writing this on Saturday and it probably won't reach you before Tuesday) reads as follows:
At the time of being admitted as a member of the medical profession:
•I solemnly pledge to consecrate my life to the service of humanity;
•I will give to my teachers the respect and gratitude that is their due;
•I will practice my profession with conscience and dignity;
•The health of my patient will be my first consideration;
•I will respect the secrets that are confided in me, even after the patient has died;
•I will maintain by all the means in my power, the honour and the noble traditions of the medical profession;
•My colleagues will be my sisters and brothers;
•I will not permit considerations of age, disease or disability, creed, ethnic origin, gender, nationality, political affiliation, race, sexual orientation, social standing or any other factor to intervene between my duty and my patient;
•I will maintain the utmost respect for human life;
•I will not use my medical knowledge to violate human rights and civil liberties, even under threat;
•I make these promises solemnly, freely and upon my honour.
Personally, if I were about to start practicing medicine, I think I would prefer to take the original Oath, which supposedly started out like this (though it has been argued that these exact words do not appear in the text as written by Hippocrates):
First, do no harm.
Simple, pithy, easy to remember.
That's how you start an oath, Pope Pius X. "I profess that God, the origin and end of all things, can be known with certainty by the natural light of reason from the created world" (the Oath Against Modernism, 1910) just doesn't have the same kind of zip.
And I don't know what you radical Republicans over there in the corner are snickering about. "I do solemnly swear that I have never voluntarily borne arms against the United States since I have been a citizen thereof" is hardly going to sell a whole bunch of T-shirts at rallies, now, is it? No. It's not.
I must say, though, that the Omerta is a little more like it. Legend has it that it originated when a wounded man said to his assailant, "If I live, I'll kill you. If I die, I forgive you". Now THAT is a bumper sticker I could get behind — but unfortunately I promised not to talk about it.
Unfortunately for Hippocrates and all his successors in the medical arena, however, the Greek word for "jealous", "play-acting", "acting out", "cowardly", or "dissembling" is ???????? or hypokrisis; and this is the etymological root of the word hypocrisy, which is defined as:
The state of falsely claiming to possess characteristics, such as religiosity or virtues, that one lacks. Hypocrisy involves the deception of others and is thus a kind of lie.
Over the last several years, a new oath has appeared in the world of finance as global investment banks have been hauled in front of Senate committees, Congressional panels, various regulatory bodies, and (what always used to be the harshest of judges) the public: the Hypocritic Oath.
It begins thus:
First, admit no wrong.
In just the past two years, JPMorgan alone has paid some $7 billion in fines for a series of transgressions, including a whopping $5.29 billion fine over the robo-signing scandal, a further $300 million for misleading investors about the quality of mortgages underlying MBS securities, $150 million over risky structured investments, $230 million over the alleged rigging of various bond auction processes, and $153 million for misleading investors in one of those oh-so-common allow-a-hedge-fund-to-select-a-portfolio-of-bonds-to-sell-to-investors-that-they-then-short scams.
In most of these cases, the bank paid to settle the charges "without admitting or denying the allegations".
Now, before anybody assumes this is another of those "bash JPMorgan" diatribes, it isn't.
The Hypocritic Oath has been adopted by a multitude of banks in recent years and, like the Fifth Amendment, once it was rolled out, it seems to have been accepted absolutely without question (though the skeptics out there will naturally wonder why someone would pay a fine of several hundred million dollars when they had done nothing wrong — those pesky skeptics just can't mind their own business, I guess).
Way back in November 2011, Citi agreed to a $285 million fine whilst neither admitting nor denying wrongdoing — something the judge in the case took issue with:
(CNN Money): But why would Citi agree to such a payment and reforms if they didn't violate regulations? This conundrum is not a new one for Judge [Jed] Rakoff and one he raised in an SEC settlement case two years ago involving Bank of America. In that case, although Bank of America had originally neither admitted nor denied the violations, when the case came under scrutiny by Rakoff, Bank of America went ahead and denied.
So Rakoff asked a reasonable question: why would a bank pay out shareholder dollars for something it had denied committing? If the bank did the deeds as the SEC contended, why weren't individuals being punished in line with SEC guidelines, he had asked?
Along similar lines, in this most recent Citi case, Rakoff has asked the SEC to explain why the court should "impose a judgment in a case in which the SEC alleges a serious securities fraud but the defendant neither admits nor denies wrongdoing."
Either there was a violation or there wasn't. Which is it?
Which indeed?
Or how about Wells Fargo (then Wachovia) and allegations of bond-market rigging, also in 2011:
(SEC): The SEC alleges that Wachovia generated millions of dollars in illicit gains during an eight-year period when it fraudulently rigged at least 58 municipal bond reinvestment transactions in 25 states and Puerto Rico. Wachovia won some bids through a practice known as "last looks" in which it obtained information from the bidding agents about competing bids. It also won bids through "set-ups" in which the bidding agent deliberately obtained non-winning bids from other providers in order to rig the field in Wachovia's favor. Wachovia also facilitated some bids rigged for others to win by deliberately submitting non-winning bids.
Sounds sort of unsavoury to me, and Wachovia fell on its sword pretty much straightaway, as the very next paragraph in the SEC press release reveals:
Wachovia agreed to settle the charges by paying $46 million to the SEC that will be returned to affected municipalities or conduit borrowers. Wachovia also entered into agreements with the Justice Department, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Internal Revenue Service, and 26 state attorneys general that include the payment of an additional $102 million. The settlements arise out of long-standing parallel investigations into widespread corruption in the municipal securities reinvestment industry in which 18 individuals have been criminally charged by the Justice Department's Antitrust Division.
Then, after an outline of the complaint, find this:
Without admitting or denying the allegations in the SEC's complaint, Wachovia has consented to the entry of a final judgment enjoining it from future violations of Section 17(a) of the Securities Act of 1933 and has agreed to pay a penalty of $25 million and disgorgement of $13,802,984 with prejudgment interest of $7,275,607.
Followed by this:
Four financial institutions have so far paid a total of $673 million in the ongoing investigations into corruption in the municipal reinvestment industry. Other financial institutions that the SEC has previously charged are: J.P. Morgan Securities LLC — $228 million settlement with SEC and other federal and state authorities on July 7, 2011; UBS Financial Services Inc. — $160 million settlement with SEC and other federal and state authorities on May 4, 2011; and Bank of America Securities LLC — $137 million settlement with SEC and other federal and state authorities on Dec. 7, 2010.
Each of the other three institutions named in the suit also neither admitted nor denied the allegations, but simply got out their cheque books and signed away the accusations. Simple.
First, admit no wrong.
A look at the "trusted bank brands ladder", based on a survey conducted by BAV Consulting in late 2012, demonstrates the damage done to the large banks by their seemingly continuous visits to Capitol Hill in recent months — and also makes clear the debt of thanks JPMorgan and HSBC owe to Barclays, Citi, and Bank of America for being just that little bit less trustworthy:
Source: BAV Consulting
We saw wrongdoing in the Libor scandal (though in this case the Banks were forced to admit their transgressions, but the march of bad behavior goes on. Copping to a fine of $200 million, Barclays would only go so far as to admit that "the manipulation of the submissions affected the fixed rates on some occasions").
Meanwhile, there are swirling rumors of wrongdoing around the pricing of ISDAFix (a benchmark off which hundreds of trillions of dollars of interest-rate swaps are priced by a group of 15 of those same household-name banks). And of course there are the machinations in the gold market (about which I recently wrote a piece for King World News, here). But whenever possible, banks pay huge fines, and quickly — on the condition that the terms of their deals with prosecutors and regulators are subject to the Hypocritic Oath:
First, admit no wrong.
The admission of wrongdoing is something to be avoided at all costs by many of the big players in the financial system; and certainly, there are those who would accuse the Federal Reserve itself of hypocritical behaviour.
The Fed's "dual mandate" was reassessed by Fed Governor John Williams in a 2012 speech:
It's often said that Congress assigned the Federal Reserve a dual mandate: maximum employment and stable prices. But, that's not quite accurate. In fact, the Fed has a triple mandate.
Section 2A of the Federal Reserve Act calls on the Fed to maintain growth of money and credit consistent — and I quote — "with the economy's long-run potential to increase production, so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates."
The "dual mandate" is, it seems (at least in the eyes of one Fed Governor), a triple mandate; but all three components are most certainly designed to try to ensure that no harm is done to the economy or the public. Everything the Fed has done since the dog days of 2008 has been intended, in their eyes, to cure the patient; and, in the words of none other than the Fed Chairman himself at Jackson Hole in 2009, without the Fed's actions (and, by implication, the actions of their peers around the world), things would have been a LOT worse:
(Bernanke Speech, September 15, 2009): [T]he world has been through the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression.
The crisis in turn sparked a deep global recession, from which we are only now beginning to emerge.
As severe as the economic impact has been, however, the outcome could have been decidedly worse.
Unlike in the 1930s, when policy was largely passive and political divisions made international economic and financial cooperation difficult, during the past year monetary, fiscal, and financial policies around the world have been aggressive and complementary.
Without these speedy and forceful actions, last October's panic would likely have continued to intensify, more major financial firms would have failed, and the entire global financial system would have been at serious risk.
We cannot know for sure what the economic effects of these events would have been, but what we know about the effects of financial crises suggests that the resulting global downturn could have been extraordinarily deep and protracted.
Bernanke went on to say that "In this episode, by contrast, policymakers in the United States and around the globe responded with speed and force to arrest a rapidly deteriorating and dangerous situation", and that the policy response "averted the imminent collapse of the global financial system, an outcome that seemed all too possible to the finance ministers and central bankers".
However, what might have happened is something we will never know for sure, so the threat of a cataclysm has been a convenient justification for any action taken in the name of preventing one.
But — and it's a big but — a recent study by two prominent Fed economists, Vasco Curdia and Andrea Ferrero of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (home stomping ground of one-time shoo-in for Bernanke's job, Janet Yellen), suggests that, in fact, the protracted policy response of the Fed has been far less successful than the Chairman would have you believe:
In November 2010, the Fed's policy committee, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), announced a program to purchase $600 billion of long-term Treasury securities, the second of a series of large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs).
The program's goal was to boost economic growth and put inflation at levels more consistent with the Fed's maximum employment and price stability mandate. In Chen, Cúrdia, and Ferrero (2012), we estimate that the second LSAP program, known as QE2, added about 0.13 percentage point to real GDP growth in late 2010 and 0.03 percentage point to inflation.
Our analysis suggests that forward guidance is essential for quantitative easing to be effective. Without forward guidance, QE2 would have added only 0.04 percentage point to GDP growth and 0.02 to inflation.
Under conventional monetary policy, higher economic growth and inflation would usually lead the Fed to raise interest rates, offsetting the effects of LSAPs. Forward guidance during QE2 mitigated that factor by making it clear that the federal funds rate was not likely to increase.
Our estimates suggest that the effects of a program like QE2 on GDP growth are smaller and more uncertain than a conventional policy move of temporarily reducing the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point. In addition, our analysis suggests that communication about when the Fed will begin to raise the federal funds rate from its near-zero level will be more important than signals about the precise timing of the end of QE3, the current round of LSAPs.
And so it is that, with its policy decisions, the Fed has impoverished a generation of savers through the confiscation of safe interest income (thus violating the Hippocratic Oath, if Fed Governors are economic doctors); and now, courtesy of Curdia and Ferrero, it looks for all the world as though the Fed has also broken the Hypocritic Oath and admitted doing wrong.
Source: St. Louis Fed
Yes, it's not an explicit admission, but if buying $600 billion in long-term treasuries and reinvesting another $250 million of proceeds from earlier MBS purchases has resulted in just 0.13% of real growth, I'm afraid the question has to be asked, was it worth making a direct transfer from savers on the order of hundreds of billions of dollars in order to stop the banking system melting down?
How about the efficacy of Operation Twist? Or QE3 or QE4? What's next, I wonder, now that we have interest rates pinned at zero for at least a couple more years (you would have to be truly foolhardy to believe that the goalpost of 6.5% unemployment is set in stone) and inhabit a world where hundreds of billions of dollars in asset purchases now barely moves the needle.
We may well learn more about the ultimate effectiveness of the Fed's programs when we hear at their September meeting whether they will begin their dreaded tapering; but in advance of that watershed moment, we were recently given some great insights into what might happen by developments across the pond in the land of my birth, the United Kingdom.
Our story begins on August 1st, when new BoE governor and all-around knight in shining armour Mark Carney announced that the Bank's bond-buying program would be placed on hold at ? 375 billion and interest rates would be held at 0.50%.
Now this was no surprise.
Of 42 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, 41 had already called Carney's moves perfectly, and a respected member of that august profession had laid out just what a snoozefest this announcement was:
(Bloomberg): "It was always looking likely to be a non-event ahead of the announcement about forward guidance," said Vicky Redwood, an economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London and a former BOE oficial. "Recent economic news has supported the [Monetary Policy Committee's] forecast for a gradual recovery. Even though the committee might return to the QE option further ahead if the recovery wobbles, we think that it will prefer to wait to see what impact forward guidance has."
Redwood's assessment that recent data had supported the MPC's forecast and justified the freezing of QE was a common one — after all, they could wait to see if things really were improving as much as the data suggested; and if not, they could always restart QE — after all, there are no consequences of printing money out of thin air, when required.
Barely a week later, clearly feeling confident in his new role, Carney opened his shoulders:
(Euromoney): Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark Carney on Wednesday introduced a new era in UK monetary policy when he provided forward guidance for the first time on the future direction of interest rates. In an eagerly anticipated move, Carney said during his inaugural inflation report press conference that the BoE would not consider raising interest rates until the unemployment rate has fallen to 7% or below.
Carney said he expected this would require the creation of about 750,000 jobs and could take three years. The UK unemployment rate stands at 7.8%. "It is now more important than ever for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to be clear and transparent about how it will set monetary policy in order to avoid an unwarranted tightening in interest rate expectations as the recovery gathers strength," said Carney.
"That is why the MPC is today announcing explicit state-contingent forward guidance."
Again, as is the custom in this post-2008 landscape, the big news was telegraphed well in advance so as not to scare the horses.
What was NOT quite so well-disseminated prior to their official release a week later was the minutes of the MPC meeting.
And therein, as the Bard once didn't exactly say, lay the rub:
(WSJ): Dissent within the Bank of England's interest-rate setting panel fueled investor doubts Wednesday over whether the central bank can stick to its new governor's pledge not to raise interest rates until joblessness in the U.K. falls sharply.
New BOE Gov. Mark Carney, in his debut news conference last week, outlined a major shift in the central bank's policy framework, vowing to keep interest rates at record lows at least until the U.K. jobless rate falls to 7%. BOE officials predict such a drop could take until 2016.
But minutes of this month's policy meeting published Wednesday showed Martin Weale, an external member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, voted against the introduction of the BOE's "forward guidance" strategy.
Mr. Weale, a British economist who has long fretted about inflationary pressures in the U.K. economy, was the lone dissenter. The remaining eight officials backed the plan, and the newly minted central bank governor announced the pledge Aug. 7.
One out of 42 economists going with a different view is not a problem. One out of 8 members of the Monetary Policy Committee piping up is a bigger deal, it would seem; and the lone dissension of Mr. Weale was enough to force UK investors to face the (admittedly slim) possibility of their own "tapering". The results were not pretty:
(UK Daily Telegraph): The rates at which banks lend to one another — usually a key indicator of the future direction of fixed rate mortgage rates — have been rising in recent weeks, in spite of Bank Governor Mark Carney's clear "guidance" that the Bank would cap rates until 2016.
The interbank rates reflect the demand for and cost of money changing hands between large institutions. These are rising, suggesting market participants are not convinced by Mark Carney's commitment made on August 7 to keep rates low until certain economic conditions — notably unemployment targets — are met.
But will rising interbank or "swap" rates as they are also known, translate into higher mortgage rates? And if so, how quickly?
Swap rates, like mortgages, apply over set periods. Two-year swap rates have risen by 16pc in the fortnight since July 30, from 0.68pc to 0.79pc. Five-year swap rates have risen by a greater 21pc, from 1.37pc to 1.66pc.
In effect, these increases mean the market expects the Bank rate to rise sooner than Carney has indicated.
"It shows that while Carney says one thing, the markets think another with at least one base rate rise priced in," according to Mark Harris of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients. "Can he really keep a lid on rates until 2016?"
That's the (inflation-adjusted) 64-bazillion-dollar question. Can Carney do what he says he will?
Can any of the world's central bankers bend markets to their will forever? Unfortunately for Carney and his counterparts at other central banks, they believe that the decision will ultimately be theirs and that the markets will do what they say, because ... well, because for the last few years they have done.
Can any of the world's central bankers bend markets to their will forever? Unfortunately for Carney and his counterparts at other central banks, they believe that the decision will ultimately be theirs and that the markets will do what they say, because ... well, because for the last few years they have done.
Big mistake.
These decisions are NEVER made by central banks in the long term — just ask Arthur Burns, who, interestingly enough as we contemplate a Larry Summers-led Fed, had a reputation of being overly influenced by political pressure in his monetary decisions during his time as Fed Chairman.
No more than a couple of days after the MPC minutes were released, the commentators looked at the market reaction to Mr. Weale's lone voice of dissent (incidentally, Weale voted for a 0.25% hike for seven consecutive months in 2011, so his contrarian stance can hardly have come as a shock) and let loose:
(UK Daily Telegraph): Morgan Stanley predicts that sterling will fall from a current value of around $1.56 to $1.48 in three months' time — a 5pc fall — as Bank of England Governor Mark Carney continues to pursue measures to stimulate the economy.
A series of positive economic news has boosted the pound recently, sending it to eight-week highs against the dollar, but Morgan Stanley's head of foreign exchange strategy Hans Redeker said significant slack remains in the economy and that Mr Carney may even pursue an expansion of the Bank's £375bn quantitative easing programme.
Philip Aldrick had similar concerns:
(Philip Aldrick): Top economists said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) could relaunch quantitative easing (QE) within months if markets did not move into line with the "forward guidance" unveiled by Governor Mark Carney last week.
The warning came after another rise in both sterling and government borrowing costs, and as traders brought forward their forecasts for a first rate rise to the third quarter of 2015 — roughly a year earlier than the Bank has signalled.
And Liam Halligan went one step further — outlining why he was worried about Carney's bold plan:
(Liam Halligan): I'd like to be positive. The new Governor has barely got his feet under the table and is a decent man. Amidst sky-high expectations, he faces a formidable task. Yet my instincts tell me that forward guidance is counter-productive and could even be highly dangerous.
Carney delivered his much-anticipated monetary sermon on August 7. Already, the policy appears to be unravelling. Since the Governor spoke, 10-year UK gilt yields have spiralled, up over 20 basis points to 2.64pc, the highest level since October 2011. So borrowing has become dearer, not only for the Government but across the economy. That, presumably, is not what Carney intended....
Forward guidance is losing traction for reasons that go beyond recent improvements in the growth data. Investors are also concerned that the Bank will need to raise rates sooner than it says in order to counter inflation. The Consumer Price Index rose 2.8pc during the year to the end of July, we learnt last Tuesday. While that was marginally down from 2.9pc the month before, inflation still remains way above the Bank's 2pc target, as it has been for no less than 45 months in a row.
While the Government's pet economic commentators are doing their best to ignore oil prices, it's also the case that, despite a sluggish global economy, crude prices remain firmly above $110 per barrel.
Egyptian unrest notwithstanding, oil markets remain tight, amidst ever-growing demand from the Eastern giants and, despite the fracking hype, an ongoing struggle to source new supplies. That can only aggravate inflation.
Ahhh... yes, inflation. I remember that.
So here we are.
One dissenter, and the QE program that was put on hold just TWO WEEKS prior is being touted as the solution to a problem that hasn't even occurred yet, simply because markets won't "move into line".
Oh, Mama!
But it's not just the UK. Over in the USA, the signs are already appearing that rates are starting to be set not by the Fed but by the market, and that spells trouble.
Exhibit A: Mortgage Rates
Source: Mike Shedlock
That is not going to help the housing "recovery" that has done so much to inspire confidence in the US economy; and indeed, as Mike Shedlock pointed out this week, mortgage application data is already cause for concern:
(Mish): From the latest Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Application Survey ...
Mortgage applications decreased 4.7% from the previous week
The Refinance Index decreased 4% from the previous week
The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5% from the previous week
The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6% compared with the previous week
One week does not make a trend, but the trend looks ominous. The weekly application surveys show a decline in mortgage applications for the 13th time in 15 weeks.
Curiously, refinance applications, although trending lower, still account for about 63% of applications.
I spoke with my friend Michael Becker, a mortgage broker at WCS Funding Group, and he commented that he is still refinancing people with rates over 6%. Some people just now have the equity available to refinance.
Yet, with rising rates, the drop in affordability, the pent-up demand to buy declining, and the decline in the number of applications, don't expect too much more (if any), rise in home values. And don't expect mortgage applications to break this trend either.
What does that look like graphically? Well, like this:
Source: MBA/Bloomberg
Central banks are now reaching the point of no return. They have pegged rates at zero; they have bought what would have been, until a few short years ago, an utterly incomprehensible amount of bonds; and now they have promised to keep rates at zero for years to come — but the markets are finally beginning to rebel.
Bill Fleckenstein likes to call this part of the process "the market taking away the printing press", and if that is in fact the phase we are about to enter, then all hell could be let loose. The markets wresting control from the central banks will signify that the endgame has begun.
Already, as you can see from the chart below, interest rates have backed up across the world (though Japan — whose bond market went through some wild convulsions in the wake of BoJ governor Kuroda's pledge — seems once again to be under control ... for the time being) as investors start to realize that eventually market forces will ride roughshod over central bankers, and at that point they will need to take drastic measures.
Source: Bloomberg
Unlike in the 1980s, though, raising rates into the teens is categorically not an option this time — in fact, raising rates back to the average over the last 25 years is not even on the table, since, despite a consistently falling yield during that extended time period, the average rate is still 5.25% (see chart below); and THAT, dear reader, is a number that isn't affordable today due to the explosion in the amount of debt issued by the US.
Source: Bloomberg
But surely, if the market WERE in the process of removing the printing presses from the central banks of the world, there would be signs elsewhere that a race had begun to buy some sort of asset that would perform well in an environment where things were getting out of control, no? Surely, if the prospect of inflation picking up was real, there would be SOME way to tell?
Source: Bloomberg
If only there were an asset that might act as some kind of early warning signal...
So, to summarize:
As if by magic, markets are no longer doing exactly what is required of them, when required. Interest rates are backing up as fears of "tapering" mount; and no matter how hard Bernanke, Carney, or any of their mouthpieces try to reassure folks that any taper won't be a disaster and that rates will be low for a VERY long time, they are having to keep the helicopters gassed up and ready to drop more money at a moment's notice, because that is Mr Market's default response: "I want more cowbell!"
In our through-the-looking-glass world where down is up and bad is good, markets conditioned to expect stimulus are reacting poorly to "strong data", and fears that the flood of free money may be about to be stemmed are growing.
After several years of bad news being good, we are now at the point where good news is bad.
That's bad (and by bad, I don't mean good).
What is actually happening is that, once you subtract the injection of bountiful free money by central banks, that "strong data" is seen exactly for what it is: weak data. And the prospect of a low-growth world emptied of easy money is hardly one that inspires confidence amongst investors.
(UK Daily Telegraph): Strong data sparks market sell-off on fears stimulus is over
Stock markets across the world slumped and government borrowing costs soared after strong economic data from the US and the UK renewed fears that central banks would soon start withdrawing stimulus and move towards interest rate rises.
That's it in a nutshell.
So ... it's all about the taper.
What happens now? Do we get the dreaded taper, followed by a measured retreat in bond markets with equities stabilizing at all-time highs and central bankers having the world graciously bend to their will forever? Or do we get a taper that is accompanied by a big break lower in equity markets that causes one last panic-driven rush into sovereign debt, making things look optically OK for a little while longer? Or maybe we get a taper followed by a break in equities, a continued sell-off in bonds, and a panic into real assets like precious metals?
But there's one more scenario that worries me: what if they taper ... and everything falls anyway?
What then?
OK, so another week is in the books; and revisiting the high (well, low) points, our first port of call is that nearly forgotten thorn in the side of Europe: Spain.
Not only do we find a 47-storey building with a minor flaw, but we discover entire villages for sale and take a look through German eyes at the progress being made in Spain on the path to reform.
China features prominently this week, too, as Michael Pettis exposes the urbanization fallacy; Caixin examines the tremendous increase in interbank business; and, in a development that will shock precisely nobody, we contemplate the possibility that Chinese economic data is "dodgy".
Japan's debt passes a major milestone that seems to have not even registered; we drop in on Cyprus to remind ourselves that there is still a problem or two in parts of Europe that don't rhyme with "Hermany"; and in our charts section we examine the Summers vs Yellen race to the Mariner S. Eccles Building, ETF holdings of gold and silver, and the housing "recovery".


text:
Update: Man Arrested For Woman's Shooting in Decatur
DECATUR, Ala. (WHNT) — Decatur Police say a 26-year-old man is in custody for a woman's shooting early Wednesday morning.
DeMichael Deshon Mason, 26, is charged with assault and shooting into an occupied dwelling.
The victim, Constance Miller, was shot several times just after 1 a.m. Wednesday in the 300 block of 12th Avenue Northwest, near 2nd Street.
Authorities responded after a 911 call said a woman had been shot in the front yard of a home on 12th Avenue. Police say they found Miller lying in the yard. Paramedics rushed her to Decatur Morgan Hospital with non-life threatening injuries.
Police say Miller was able to identify Mason as the person who shot her.
Police taped off the area, collected several shell casings and started talking to witnesses.
Officers pulled over a vehicle matching Mason's car description near Wimberly Drive SW. This was about 2 a.m. They questioned a passenger they identified as Mason.
Police brought Mason and the driver of the vehicle to the Decatur Police Department. They charged Mason and booked him in the Decatur City Jail. His bond has not been set yet.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
WEEKEND PIC (Aug 18-20 2006)
(A guide to help you plan your cinema-going)
1. THE ANT BULLY (fantasy adventure with voices of Nicolas Cage, Meryl Streep & Julia Roberts) Rated * * * (3 stars out of 4): A boy, who takes out his frustrations on a colony of ants, learns some of life's lessons when he is shrunk to ant size and taken to the colony. Great for the kids.
2. CLICK (Fantasy comedy with Adam Sandler, Kate Beckinsale and Christopher Walken) Rated: * * * (3 stars): Sandler gets more than he had bargained for when is given a 'universal remote control' that can freeze and fast forward time, and even erases unpleasant events.
3. MISTRESS OF SPICES (fantasy romance with Aishwarya Rai and Dylan McDermott) Rated * * (2 stars): This story about the magical of spices is supposed to be exotic and romantic but it turns out lifeless and bland. Mainly for Aishwarya fans.
4. GARFIELD 2: A TAIL OF 2 KITTIES (Comedy with Brekin Meyer, Jennifer Love Hewitt and Bill Murray as voice of Garfield) Rated * * (2 stars): Based on the Prince and the 'Pawper' story, this one has Garfield being mistaken for a 'royalty' lookalike when he sneaks off to London with Jon. Juvenile and sometimes 'pawthetic' comedy.
5. NACHO LIBRE (Wrestling comedy with Jack Black) Rated * ½ (1.5 stars): Everything looks phoney in this comedy about a monastery chef (Black) who turns to wrestling to help buy better food for the orphans.


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There is something so magical about a Wishing Well. The thought of an underground world living and breathing under the world we live in. Making a wish and your dreams coming true.
We are lucky enough to have a real wishing well on our land.
The well itself is covered up at present with a manhole cover. One day I intend to build it back up again to its true glory with a pump leading to the water so that we can use the water.
The cover has been off a few times to reveal something from the past. The well is about 10ft wide. But built in a circle of old stone. It is stunning to look at a proper old wishing well that you see on a rare occasion these days.
There is also a scare factor of the hidden treasure on the land at Penybont Stores. The water is as clear as day you can seen beyond the bottom into the world under the well. The scare factor is that once it was measured the drop to the water was 20ft at the time although I think with all this rain the water may be up to the top at this rate. but the water itself at the time was 10ft deep. It was rather a fright at the time when there was small children about. in total the stone built well is approx 30ft deep. One day the magical well will be built up with matching stone, a roof on top, not forgetting the bucket on the rope. Wishing in the well may your dreams come true.


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Some of the wedding photos are online now...check them out! The first link is to the photographer's site; there are a handful of pictures (we're the Hilary & Aaron ones). The second is a friend's page and there are more pictures, with more to be uploaded periodically.
Sooner or later we'll get the proofs and I'll post the best ones. Enjoy,
Aaron -- proud new ownner of fancy pots and pans
Want to see something added to the GotMead Glossary? PM me! Didn't know we had a glossary? Check the top row of links.
A lovely bride like that and you're happy for more cookware? Congrats.
I noticed the photographer mentioned the Philly area, are you by chance a fellow Pennsyltuckian?
Beautiful bride, yes, but I'm sort of used to her by now. Seriously though, I agree. She was stunning. It was worth the "no you can't see my dress" dance for 8 months before the wedding.
We live in CA at the moment, but she grew up outside of Philadelphia, so that's where we went to get married. Just north of Delaware (home of cheap booze, conveniently) in a nice little place called Chadds Ford. Chadd had a ford there once, I guess.
I however, am a Midwesterner. My definition of lake is still "body of water too big to see across."
Want to see something added to the GotMead Glossary? PM me! Didn't know we had a glossary? Check the top row of links.


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Inspire yourself with funky Ecojot Journals
Who needs plain, baby, when you could get energized and inspired just by the act of picking up your journal?
Check out these beautiful, colorful, inspirational journals with covers and paper made with 100% post-consumer waste, with funky covers emblazoned with inspirational quotes such as this one – shown at left – designed by Nate Williams. Or this lovely Every Day Is Earth Day one, to give as a gift and a reminder that we can take care of the Earth every day, not just on Earth day. Or this joyful, exuberant Peace Is Always Beautiful journal. I love them all, and I can imagine sitting down to use each one and the lovely happy inspirational feeling I would get each time I opened the cover.
These journals are available online as well as lots of places where ecojot is sold. And, if you buy online at the Ecojot store and spend more than $40 for a limited time, you'll get a free limited edition Every Day Is Earth Day print. Beautiful!
2 Comments on Inspire yourself with funky Ecojot Journals
love the new designs!Reply
This info about Inspire yourself with funky Ecojot Journals is very helpful for me! Thanks for giving out. it's all very fresh and clearly written!Reply


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In the Philadelphia comedy scene, some people perform because it's fun and others want to be famous. But there is only one comedian that specifically talks about his attempts at fame on stage. That would be 2008's Philly's Phunniest winner and Birmingham, Alabama native Kent Haines. Tonight his run of his monthly talk show "Why Am I Not Famous?!?", in which he would strive to become famous in a different way each month, comes to an end at The Actor's Center (257 North 3rd) at 8PM. We caught up with Kent over e-mail recently to talk about the show.
1. Why are you ending "Why Am I Not Famous?!?"
Well, I set out to become famous, and that has not happened. So I'm taking my ball and going home. You guys can just play tag if you want to hang out with each other so bad. The actual answer is that I am going to grad school starting in July and I won't have time to write the show anymore.
2. What is the main thing that you learned from doing this show over the past year?
I've found that often the best way to write something is to force an inescapable deadline on yourself. I started the show because I wanted to write a form of comedy other than stand-up, and I feel pretty happy with some of the things I've done as a result. If I didn't start from the beginning saying "Ok, it's a monthly show," I would have bailed on these ideas over and over. Every month I think about canceling the show, and then every month I have a super fun time. But now I am canceling the show. If there's a lesson in there, I'm missing it.
3. Do you think you've become any more famous because of the show?
Judging from the audience I pull each month, there is nothing that has helped my fame less. But with any luck it will become legendary over the years, like that first Velvet Underground show.
4. Last Sunday you brought the show in New York City. How did that go?
New York was really great! I had Max Silvestri and Lance Rubin on the show, both of whom are excellent comedians. A lot of old friends from high school and college came out to see it, which led to a weird iteration of the standard reunion. Less "let's hang out" and more "let's watch me!!!"
5. Do you have any favorite moments from the show? Favorite guests?
The best part of the show has been booking my friends, so basically all of my guests have been great (except Johnny Goodtimes, who I rebuke and shun forevermore). Some of my favorite moments were singing along with political candidate Eugene Grant (Kevin Scott), watching the Extraordinaires turn the whole crowd into diehard fans in two songs' time, and arguing with Aaron Hertzog. But those all sound boring if you didn't see them, so I'll add shoving a dildo through one of Doogie Horner's books.
6. Where does Kent Haines' career go from here? What will you do now to become famous?
I think I'm going to go the Sasha Grey route for the next couple years. "Oh my god, he bangs people and reads books! What an enigma!"


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Beautiful winter light,
Turning everything it touches golden.
Soft icy breeze,
Fluttering the leaves still clinging.
The tide is lapping,
Beginning to flood the sodden marshes.
At the edge,
Birds wadding and dotting inbetween waves.
Above distant trees,
Bright colours stripe into the sky.
The buzzard flies,
Swans gracefully arrive on the water.
The light fades,
Dark clouds are starting to gather.
The sun turns grey,
Weak, it's light hidden and dull.
The spit of rain,
Blown in a strengthening wind.
Birds quieten,
Darting for cover, hiding from the storm.
An arctic blast,
Tiny specks of snow aimlessly whirling.
The grip of winter,
As snow clouds bring a different light.
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
2 comments:
Coment from Ruth:
Really beautiful. You are so talented.
- February 16, 2007 7:31 pm
- Louise said...
You are very kind and I appreciate it.
David doesn't get it.
I've decided he's illiterate...
- February 16, 2007 7:51 pm
Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)


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Cardiff bring in Guerra from Real Valladolid
Cardiff City have confirmed the capture of striker Javi Guerra from La Liga outfit Real Valladolid on a three-year deal.
Guerra had long been reported as a target for the club, and the signing was confirmed on Wednesday after completing a medical, with his contract to begin officially on July 1.
The 32-year-old spent four years at the Spanish club, the last two of which were in the top flight, and scored 72 league goals after joining from Levante.
His 15 goals this campaign could not save Valladolid from relegation back to Segunda Division, and he joins a Cardiff side who themselves dropped back into the Championship after just one year in the Premier League.
"I am very thankful for the warm welcome I have received here at Cardiff City and am very excited for my new challenge in Wales," Guerra told the club's official website.
"Hopefully I can keep up the level that I have been playing at in Spain for the last few seasons and that it will be a successful time for me in Cardiff, with both the club and the supporters."


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Christie and Matt went to a wedding in the Outer Banks this weekend - poor things. Was I jealous? No way! I had three full days to hang with Lauren and Kyla!Goofing around on Saturday morning
Lauren reached into the drawer and said she needed her "piggy nose..."
See? You never knew that a safety plug for an electrical socket could serve as a piggy nose, did you?
See? You never knew that a safety plug for an electrical socket could serve as a piggy nose, did you?
Kyla didnt' find another nose in the drawer, but was content to laugh at Lauren's.
Aunt Crazy took the girls to Harris Teeter for "a coffee" (i.e. vanilla frappuccino)
(Party started at 10:30 AM ... can you believe it's only 10:30? I couldn't!)
Landree (birthday girl) and Lauren
Janet (Mom) and Landree
Kyla and Landree with their cake
Lauren with cake mouth
Kyla had just turned 2 the week before, and I swear she thought it was her birthday all over again. She had the routine down ... sing as loud as you can, smear cake all over your face, even unwrap the gifts! (We stopped her in time.)
Playing with the water table on Sunday morning; I forgot how much fun squirt guns are!
Kyla dipping her elbows in the water
I was able to head off an "I miss Mommy" meltdown with fudgecicles.
I was able to head off an "I miss Mommy" meltdown with fudgecicles.
Yep, that worked.
Time to walk off the popsicles with a walk around the lake.
Kyla with dandelion
Lauren and dandelion
Kyla looking cute
Lauren looking adorable
OK, after the rain ended our walk around the lake, it was time for fingerpainting.
Fingerpainting without a shirt for Kyla (I learned my lesson after the popsicle!)
Over to Mom's house for dinner on Sunday night ... the girls loved the puddle.
Lauren on her tricycle
Kyla and Lauren
Back in Crazy's car to head home!
On Monday morning, Lauren wanted me to take a picture of her in her dress with a flower from her ballet recital. It was a good opportunity to play with my camera settings. I'm trying to practice portraits because I am photographing our friends' wedding in July! So bear with me - some of these aren't that good, but the moments are cute!
Lauren laughing
Kyla and Lauren
Back outside for more sprinkler time!
Kyla let the sprinkles hit her a bit, but she was more interested in running around than getting wet!
What a blast! I can't wait until everyone comes to Richmond in a couple weeks to see Uncle Bill, who is returning to town!


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Interested in experimenting in the kitchen? Here are some fun and simple recipes to get you started!
Pizza Skewers
Taco Cheeseburger
Macaroni and Cheese (not from a box) - or you can try the even simpler Mac & Cheese in a Mug.
Cocoa Brownies
Looking for more recipes? You can find these books for beginning cooks at the library.
How to Cook in 10 Easy Lessons by Wendy Sweetster
Starting from Scratch by Sarah Elton
Cooking Class by Deanna Cook


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Well, the phone did ring, but it was at the last minute of the business day and only with semi-bad news…the shipping would be delayed by a day, press problems. For me, after eighteen years, what's another day? So I took it calmly, mostly wanted to know when I need to be here to receive information or the books themselves. I spent yesterday waiting around for the phone call, afraid to leave my house – and that coincided with 150 Hell's Angels and other bikers and their women descending on my neighbour's home for a wake after the funeral of one of their friends. Within fifteen minutes, just after noon, my normally quiet street filled with Harley's, my front yard filled with beer-drinking leather-clad bald heads and long hairs, and I felt like I was held hostage in my little home – I couldn't go anywhere since I needed to be here and I couldn't go outside as I didn't want to particularly mix and mingle. My main concern was that they didn't step on my flowers while using my little front lawn as the party overspill since they couldn't all fit in the neighbour's yard. But I digress…(and no harm was done except cigarette butts left in their wake).
So today I'll work at getting together a Paypal account, a new email address, a new bank account – all those things that you need to run an online business, thru my company Wandering Words Press. There is never a shortage of things I can be doing, I find making the decision of what to do is generally more complicated than just the doing! I'm having a problem putting photos on this blog so will hopefully take care of that too. One more day waiting on the book is nothing, just an extra day of preparations – it also gives me time to pick up the cigarette butts.


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As January 26 draws closer, Anohni gears up for the debut of Swanlights at Radio City Music Hall in New York City. Months of preparation have led up to a single night, a single performance. The visual concert webs in and out of Anohni's dream world to portray the inner thoughts only someone as gifted and forward-moving as Anohni could create in a tangible space. A MoMA commissioned event, Anohni enlisted the help of several outstanding composers and lighting and set artists to make the show grow from a concert to an experience.
In Black and Gold: Anohni, V Magazine dives into detail about the upcoming show and what exactly it means to Anohni to perform such a production in the grandeur setting that is Radio City. "The scale of the production is less of a concern for the seasoned artist, who grew up performing in small East Village venues, than it is something to marvel at. 'It's funny because a lot of the songs are the same ones I performed at the Pyramid Club when I was 20 years old,' she says. 'To perform them with a symphony orchestra, in New York which is my home, is really rewarding." Never forgetting her roots or the number of artists still struggling to survive, Anohni comments on the fortune she as been granted as "a reflection of a great circle of cultural artists and performers, transgender people, and punk women."
To read the full article, visit V MAGAZINE and to witness Swanlights in person, purchase your tickets HERE. It's an event not to be missed.


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I don't care what you eat. I really don't. If you're one of those people who is on the doughnut and bacon double cheeseburger plan to ensure an early path to heart disease, that's fine with me. It's a choice you are allowed to make and I honor that. Seriously.
I also couldn't care less about your freaking shoes. Leather? Plastic? Paper? Whatever. Okay, so I did join a Facebook group called "I don't care how comfortable they are, you look like a dumbass in Crocs" but it's really not a big deal to me. It's not like I started the group — I just thought it was funny. So, I'm certainly not going to get all uppity about killing a cow for footwear. In fact, I got some pretty harsh looks from that pale chick who works in the health food grocery the other day. I kind of went in to shop wearing my black leather jacket and leather shoes. She scowled at me like the cow was still attached and I was dragging it along the aisles behind me. Moooo. Listen up: leather is a fine product and wears a whole lot better than clothing from Wal*Targ that feels like it's made of cheese.
Oh, so speaking of cheese, have you noticed that milk is not a vegetable? Yeah, I hate to be the one to burst your balloon, but it's true. I only bring this up since after reading The China Study, my wife and I have eaten only a vegan diet. If you don't know the difference between vegan and vegetarian, here it is:
A vegan diet is one of only plant based foods with no animal products.
A vegetarian is the same thing except they think milk, eggs and sometimes fish are plants.
I don't care if someone chooses to be a vegetarian or vegan or pescatarian or Episcopalian. This is not a rant about hypocrisy. It's a rant about why the hell is there cheese and eggs in vegetarian products? Why can't I pull a prepared thing out of my friendly grocer's freezer that is labeled "vegetarian" (like veggie sausage) only to find it is made with milk and eggs? When did cow's milk and chicken embryos become vegetables? If my kids plant a fish upside down in the dirt am I going to get a minnow tree?
There should be a different labeling system for products that are non-meat but still contain animal products like dairy. Vegetarian is a lousy term for that. How about "Non-Meat"? "Veggie but Cheesy"? "Eggful Veg"? Got a better term? According to my son, the best description is "Made from Things That Poop" and "Not Made From Things That Poop." Okay, I'm cool with that.
Brett L. Kinsler is a chiropractor in Rochester, NY who keeps his vegan Star Wars lunchbox right next to his leather jacket. Clinic website: www.rochesterchiro.com


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Second Bookses
It's like second breakfast. Only with books.
8:00 pm 19 May 2011
I first read the novel Mrs. Bridge, by Evan S. Connell, along with its companion, Mr. Bridge, shortly after seeing the Merchant-Ivory movie based on the novels. When I started going through my shelves and boxes of books to determine what I should keep and what should go, I was eager to reread these two books, sure that they would stay in my permanent collection. I'm unsure now whether time or circumstance has changed my opinion.::: Life of the Idle Rich :::India Bridge is a woman as common as her name was uncommon. Set in the years leading up to, and during, World War II, she leads a life stereotypical of the country club set in those days. A steady parade of manual servants does most of the work around the home, and Mrs. Bridge's main pastimes are shopping, socializing, and worrying, although not necessarily in that order. Her husband, a successful lawyer, puts in long hours at the office, and she seems adrift, trying to make herself busy yet never finding the time to do the things she wants to do.The Bridges have three children: Ruth, an exotic beauty who never quite fits into the family structure; Carolyn, who has all the intelligence and "sameness" that Ruth seems to lack; and Douglas, the youngest, who seems to be very much all boy. As the novel progresses, Mrs. Bridge seems at times confused and left behind by each of her children in turn, and nearly abandoned by her husband.::: Short and Bittersweet :::Connell's writing style (which he continues with Mr. Bridge) consists of very short chapters, often less than a page in length, containing small snapshots of Mrs. Bridge's life. Reading Mrs. Bridge feels almost like looking at a photo album; small slices of life are there for you to peruse at your leisure, but you never can get quite the entire picture.When I first read Mrs. Bridge, I was struck by the realism that Connell managed to convey in these short snippets; the constant underlying terror of Mrs. Bridge is palpable, as she feels that the world moves around her and past her, leaving her ever more in the dark. She has a repertoire of things she can say to keep the conversation moving, never letting on what she doesn't know, and always afraid to speak her mind or even disagree with her husband. In one scene, she and her husband are dining out at the club when a tornado warning is communicated to all the patrons by the steward. Her husband would rather continue to eat his steak rather than flee to the safety of the club's basement, and not once does Mrs. Bridge think to leave him and seek safety for herself, but rather goes to another table to get her husband some more butter, since the wait staff has disappeared.The realism of Mrs. Bridge, though, felt weighty and depressing. It may be harder for me, as a stay-at-home mother myself who gave up my career to take care of my children, to view Mrs. Bridge as anything but a woman to be pitied. So completely has she given herself over to her husband and family that she has no real interests, and feels almost like a husk of a person. One scene in particular made me want to slap both her and her daughter; her daughter comes home searching for a pair of shoes she wanted to wear to an informal dance, and upon learning that they have been given to charity, pitches such a fit about wearing a different pair that Mrs. Bridge abandons a self-study lesson she was working on to go replace the shoes for her daughter. Every small moment that contains a flicker of personality and hope that Mrs. Bridge will find herself is as quickly squashed as this.The last scene of the novel (and believe me, this gives nothing of the plot away) was set up differently in the movie version, and didn't convey the utter hopelessness of her life. As Mrs. Bridge is pulling out of her garage in the Lincoln she never did feel comfortable driving, the car stalls as it has often done in the past. She tries to exit the car, but discovers that the car has stalled in such a way that all four doors are unable to be opened, and there she sits, trapped in a car that symbolizes her life. It left me with such an utter feeling of despair that I couldn't wait to be done with the book and toss it in the pile of books I don't have any desire to read again.This review previously published at Epinions: http://www.epinions.com/review/Mrs_Bridge_by_Evan_S_Connell/content_183084027524
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text: Bird's website says theses sandals "combine vintage German chic with the lightweight comfort of orthopedic granny shoes"; I don't think I could have said it better! In this cute cherry red color and comfort galore, I think I could walk the Brooklyn Bridge and back with nary a blister. Perfect to pair with your summer dresses, they're $55.00 from Bird. ps Happy Mom's Day!


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I started out the year assessing the new four year old students to see where they were at and checking up on their progress throughout the year. I created this assessment binder to grab and go when it was time to assess one of the little ones. I have everything I need in it to check in on their progress all year long.
These name bags were a hit at the beginning of the year and again in the middle of the year when I added their last name. I used these with the little four year olds and they loved setting up their names. I had these bags on the table as they enter the room. It was the first thing they did. It was really helpful because they referred to the letters in their name all year long. We even referred the letters in our friends names as well.
We played these Bingo games all year round. I put the capital letter bingo and lowercase bingo back to back and we switched it up. I did the same with the number bingo as well. At the beginning of the year I played the number bingo 1-30 with the 5 year olds and towards the end of the year I was playing the 1-20 number bingo with the 4 year olds. I also used the number and letter cards to play other board games as well. We switched up our markers to holiday markers throughout the year. This was a favorite that they begged to play each week.
Oh my gosh the kids loved the letters on the stones. They loved putting them in order and they loved using them to match pictures and letters for beginning sounds. I used them with the K5 and first graders to do making words exercises. I think it was a texture thing. The kids loved the smooth cool feeling of the rocks. I even made a second set with capital letters to match up.
These sensory cards were a free item I got from Oriental Trading Company and they were a hit with my four year old students. They loved touching them and we made up lots of activities with them however their favorite were the sandboxes. They loved tracing the letters and then drawing the letters in the sand that I found at the dollar store.
Stick Bang is a game that cost little money to make and the kids love to play it. I made so many different versions of this game. However I think the favorite was this lollipop version I made for the four year olds.
My Mystery Number Box was a huge hit. I found these number cards in a Math Packet I had already purchased on TPT. I printed them and mounted them on card stock and laminated them. Then I found an empty Kleenex box and that's where I put the cards. I used these cards for so many activities: Number Identification, Greater Than/Less Than, Put the numbers in order from Greatest to Least, from Least to Greatest. Grab a number and then find one more/one less/ten more/ten less, number of the day, adding and subtracting activities.
I looked and looked and I couldn't find where I got these cards from but I know they were something I found I TPT.
These reference folders were something I used daily with a lot of my older students. I have math activities on the outside and language activities on the inside. I found this idea in one of the kindergarten classrooms at my school and I used resources I already had and found free resources that I could use to complete my folders.


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Review Pixi Woo Two Magazine for iPad18:48
Can I take this opportunity to wish you Happy New Year and all the best for 2013!
I am a proud owner of an iPad and have done for just under a year and I love it. I use it for blogging, as I am now, reading blogs, watching youtube and of course playing a few games here and there. You may have noticed on iPads, and iPhones I believe, that there is a Newstand feature that means, if you spare your hard earned cash, you can get an e-version of your favourite magazines. Not one to like parting with cash for the sakes of a magazine on my iPad when it is cheaper instore, I was more than happy when I found out that PixiWoo have a magazine for your iPad that costs you nothing - no strings attached!
This magazine is great and is definitely more suited to me than the sakes of Company, Look and More, that, although they are great, do not satisfy my beauty product obsession. Two magazine is all about beauty - there are pages with favourite /lusted over products, interviews with make up artists and my favourite page - what make up artists carry. What makes it eve better is that it is put together by PixiWoo!
If you have an iPad/iPhone I highly recommend 'purchasing' (for free!) Two magazine of which you can do just by searching 'PixiWoo' into the app store.
Have you checked out Two magazine? Do you know of any free magazines for your iPad?
* This is not a sponsored post, just a rave about my new favourite magazine!*
6 comments
- Anonymous1 January 2013 at 19:19
Just downloaded onto my ipad after seeing this post - such a fab magazine :)ReplyDelete
Thanks for your blog post :)
I'm going to download this. Thanks for sharing xxReplyDelete
http://favouritepurchases.blogspot.co.uk ♡ReplyDelete
i'm definitely going to get this!! Thanks :)ReplyDelete
I've downloaded this now thanks! Happy New Year :)ReplyDelete
I'm downloading now! Can't wait!ReplyDelete
I will endeavour to reply to all comments by email. Please leave your link with your comment and I will check out your blog. If you want to contact me via twitter you can do so at @CosmticLover


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Introducing the 22 Series Mulch Finishers – the quickest and simplest solution for proper seedbed prep. From tilling hard, layered soil to preparing existing food plots for reseeding, the 22 Series Mulch Finishers are designed for versatility and performance.
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View a list of all technical publications for this product. Some Operator's Manuals are available for viewing in electronic format.
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Stampin' Up sells a great Perpetual Birthday Calendar stamp set and kit. However, I thought this box would work better in my situation. I created the box and used the Perpetual Birthday Calendar stamp set on p. 12 of the 2015-2016 Catalog (#137167) to stamp and decorate each month's insert. I added 1 inch punched out circles to the top of each sheet as dividers so I can add a card or two behind each month's insert. All I have left to do is add the names and birthdays! Instructions for the box are below. I also have a PDF available for the calendar inserts that you can just print, cut and stamp.
The stamps are also great for backgrounds on cards and scrapbook pages! It is one of my favorite sets! Here are links to the stamp set and the Stampin' Up Perpetual Calendar Kit:
Built for Free Using: My Stampin Blog
Box Instructions: (Finished Box is 5x7 inches, 1-1/2 inches deep)
You need to cut two pieces to make the box to hold the perpetual birthday calendar sheets.
1. One piece 9 x 7 inches.
2. One piece 6 x 6.5 inches.
Scoring and Assembly (See photos that follow):
1. On the 9 x 7 inch piece, with the 9 inch side across the top of your scoreboard, score at 0.5, 2, 7 and 8.5 inches. Cut diagonal pieces off each side of the top. I put the ruler on 0 for the right middle score line and placed the ruler at 3 inches on the second score line in a downward direction, marked and cut. Use the cut-off piece to guide your cutting the diagonal piece off the other side so they will match.
2. On the 6 x 6.5 inch piece, with the 6.5 inch side at the top, score at 0.5 and 2 inches. With the 6 inch piece across the top and the score lines on top, score at 0.5 and 5.5 inches. Cut out the pieces as shown in the diagram, leaving a sort of T-shape.
3. With the half inch score line at the top of the second piece, attach it to the first piece, lining up the score lines. This makes one long piece. Then fold in the side tabs of the second piece and attach to the first piece to form the sides of the box.
4. Bring up the front section and attach it to the long side tabs, forming your completed box. I used Tombow mono-multi to give me some wiggle room, but you can use sticky strip or other double-sided tape of your choice.
5. Cut DSP to fit the front and sides of box and add ribbon or other decoration to your box.
|Piece #1 - 9 x 7 inches. Cut top corners as shown.
|Piece #2 - 6 x 6-1/2 inches - Cut pieces off at score lines as shown.
|Attach the two pieces together
|Fold on score lines to form box.
|Bring up front and attach as shown
Card Inserts: (finished size 4-1/2 x 7 inches)
Print numbered sheets with lines on your computer, then cut to size and stamp. I have a PDF available to make this easier for you. You can contact me via Facebook, give me your e-mail address, and I will send you the PDF file.
Whether you go with the kit from Stampin' Up or my version, I think you'll find a perpetual birthday calendar is a great thing to have! You don't have to remember to transfer birthdays from one year's calendar to the next. You always have the dates when you need them and it's easy to add new ones! Enjoy creating and thanks for visiting!


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Off White Border Print Jersey Fabric by the Yard Floral & Butterfly Spandex Knit Jersey ITY Fabric Summer Clothing Fashion Fabric Knit
Item details
This is a medium weight floral and butterfly print spandex ITY jersey knit fabric, as shown in the above pictures. This apparel fabric is super soft and stretchy and is suitable for making dresses, scarf, leggings, skirts or any garment at all. Colors on fabric are Off white,red,blue,peach and green.
You can choose to buy as little as one yard or more yardage. One yard measure approximately 36" x 60", including selvages.
Multiple quantities purchased will be sent as 1 continuous uncut length of fabric.
Fabric is new and stored in a pet and smoke free environment.
If you need more or less fabric, I'll be happy to set up a custom listing for you just send me a message.
Learn about shop policies and shipping rates at the link:
Should you have any other questions, please don't hesitate to ask I am always happy to assist you
Many thanks!
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Shipping & policies
Estimated Shipping
I will ship to your ETSY address unless otherwise instructed. All packages are sent via Canada Post regular mail in order to keep the cost of postage down; there is no tracking or insurance. Mail upgrade with tracking and insurance is available for an extra fee upon customer request; this has to be arranged before purchase.
I will send a message as soon as your order is mailed out. The standard delivery times vary from 5 business days to 28 business days depending on destination and custom clearance.
Please note that the shipping rate for items are based on weight and dimension of package,not on price of the item. Some fabric e.g Jersey knit and Melton wool are heavier than other fabric,hence the shipping rate for such fabric.
Whenever a customer pays excess shipping, I would issue a refund after I ship the package and would notify the customer. I don't make money on shipping, the cost of postage would be printed on the package.
Another way to get a more accurate shipping cost is by weighing the package and calculating the rate on Canada Post website, after which a custom listing is set upon request.
Please note it can take between 1 to 3 months for a package to reach its destination. Depending on the weight of package and location of country, shipping to European destination could take 1 to 2 months and Australia 2 to 3 months. Please be advised that you may need to pay Custom Duty & Taxes; I am not responsible for the payment of these fees. Please contact your local Post Office to find out additional information on your country's custom fees and tariffs.
Orders cannot be tracked once they leave Canada. I am not responsible for orders that become lost in transit and will not offer refunds/replacements for items that become lost, although packages rarely get lost in transit. Hence it is advisable to request and pay for tracking at the time of purchase.
International customs forms will always be filled out honestly as merchandise, no exceptions. I do not declare international packages as gifts and do not reduce the value of contents.
Payment is expected at the time of purchase via PayPal, you can pay with a credit card without setting up a PayPal account.
Please be advised that orders can only be cancelled within a few hours after it's been purchased, this is because I sometimes ship out orders the same day they are purchased. Once an order is processed and shipped,it can no longer be cancelled.
Returns & exchanges
- Custom or personalized orders
- Perishable products (like food or flowers)
- Digital downloads
- Intimate items (for health/hygiene reasons)
- Items on sale
If for any reason you are unhappy with your item please contact me. I will offer a refund or exchange upon return of the item. Returns should be made within 7 days of receiving the fabric, fabric must be unwashed, uncut and in a condition that allows it to be resold.
Return shipping with tracking information, will be customer's responsibility, unless I was at fault for shipping a wrong product.
A 10% restocking fee will be subtracted from your refund for all returned items.
Please note that purchases made with free shipping offer are final sale. You cannot return any of the items nor exchange them.
Additional policies
Additional Policies and FAQs
Yardage is priced per one yard, unless otherwise stated. Please always read the description at the bottom of every listing to be sure of what the fabric dimensions are before making a purchase.
I'm always happy to set up custom listings. Please send me a message if you would like additional yardage or something special and I will set it up as a custom listing just for you. Please note that I do not fulfill any order until the listing is paid for and listing will expire 24 hours after I have notified you that it is up, after which the listing will be removed.


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To view Jessica on Fox TV, Click on Link Below:
This necklace is dedicated to Jessica's struggle with Lyme Disease and RSD. It was made to honor her commitment to Lyme disease awareness by Lymelinks. I have heard that people are already receiving their necklaces thru the mail and it is beautiful. They feel that it is another way for them to feel "connected" to Jessica from afar. If you would like to support Jessica and her "journey", you can order the necklace by clicking on the link below:
http://www.et...sy.com/view_listing.php?listing_id=34995Hi everyone,
First, we would like to personally thank everyone who has purchased a necklace or who is going to purchase one. It means so much to our family to have all of your support - more than words can say! Thanks once again to the Mah family from Lymelinks for ALL they are doing to support this project. Also to Cat Charles and Laci Corridor for all their efforts on the lyme disease awareness facebook page as well.
I didn't blog yesterday because it was another crazy day for Jessica. Actually, the past few days have been very rough for her. As you know she has gastroparesis and it is now believed that her intestines are slow moving or "asleep" as well. She has been experiencing these increasing symptoms in regards to the intestines for the past weeks. Dr. Cantu called in a GI specialist, Dr. Morales and yesterday, in fact, she had to go down to ICU once again (her 3rd visit down there for this problem since the coma). She had to have another procedure done under proporfol in ICU to aid in the motility of her intestines and to help her to feel better! As you can imagine, another bad night for Jessica and another struggle that she has had to face!
Please keep Jessica in your prayers once again today and thank you for all the continued prayers on her behalf while we are here in Mexico.
May God keep you all in good health,
Sarah Gina (Jessica's Mom)
Remember this: "He has the whole world in His hands". From the greatest to the least, nothing is beyond the scope of his power and his care. He makes the rain fall, the sun shine, the stars twinkle! He numbers the hairs on our heads and determines the days of our lives. Ultimately, his handiwork will be something to behold!!
"Blessed is he who trusts in the Lord".
Proverbs 16:20
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The weather is changing finally and I'm loving it. Long walks, specialty coffee drinks, Pumpkin Spice Latte, Salted Caramel Mocha's...Apple picking, apple cider and the smell of pine trees.
All things Autumn are wonderful. We celebrated my grandson's 1st birthday a few weeks ago. Its hard to believe that a year has passed since I first held him minutes after he was born. Such a big boy now and ready to take on the world. So many firsts, my eyes are new again through his. A giant Praying Mantis was very exciting. It looked like a leaf and I'm sure if it was in a tree it would be hard to find.
We watched from the safety of the wagon, but lots of chattering and pointing. Everything must be tasted as well. Good thing he was not crawling when we found this bug. Trees changing colors, bright orange, red, yellow and burgundy. I love the trees.
My dog always within view is a very good model. He stays very still. He must be used to me sticking my camera in his face. He doesn't even care anymore.
He's a good old dog.


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24th Galedon Regulars
Sarna News
|24th Galedon Regulars BattleMech Regiment
|Unit Profile (as of 2581)
|Parent Formation
|Galedon Regulars
The Twenty-Fourth Galedon Regulars was a BattleMech regiment within the Draconis Combine Mustered Soldiery.
The 24th Galedon Regulars regiment was formed at some point prior to 2581.[1]
Reunification War[edit]
The 24th Galedon Regulars were active during the Reunification War, acting as one of several DCMS BattleMech regiments assigned to an ad-hoc corps in support of the Star League Defense Force task force responsible for invading the Outworlds Alliance. This invasion, named Operation UNION HOLD, saw the 24th Galedon tasked with the conquest of several Alliance worlds.[1]
The 24th Galedon Regulars were called in to reinforce the Star League II Corps forces attempting to conquer Sevon by the commander of the Outworlds Alliance Task Force, General Amos Forlough. The 24th Galedon Regulars joined the 19th Galedon Regulars and elements of the 17th Galedon Regulars in combat actions alongside the SLDF forces against the Pitcairn Legion and the Alliance 4th Armored Division, bringing a month-long conflict to a swift end and forcing the Alliance units to abandon Sevon at the end of October 2581.[2]
The 24th Galedon Regulars were paired with the 17th Galedon Regulars and assigned to conquer the Outworlds Alliance world of Valentina in late 2581. The two regiments quickly defeated the planetary militia in less than two hours of combat and quickly occupied the three largest cities on the planet. Despite this, the population of Valentina attempted to resist the Combine occupation of the world afterwards, even as the two regiments followed General Forlough's standing orders to the letter by decimating the civilian population to quell resistance, destroying any building suspected of harboring resistance fighters or supplies and harshly enforcing strict group assembly laws and curfews.[3]
When the 24th Galedon Regulars landed on Zlatousi, they found that the Alliance defenses were stronger and deeper than originally anticipated. The 24th Galedon Regulars had the support of paired regiments of armor and infantry; facing them were elements of the Alliance 1st and 2nd Armored Divisions, backed up by a militia that had armor and heavy infantry support plus a handful of Alliance light BattleMechs. While the militia units lacked experience, they had been trained well by advisors from the AFFS provided by the Federated Suns under the Tancredi Accord, and had superior numbers on their side. This lead to a conventional war, with the 24th Galedon Regulars making swift gains initially, but with the Alliance forces constantly using their greater numbers to surround the 24th and limit their movements. The 24th Galedon Regulars had access to a stronger supply chain than the Alliance forces and ground the resistance down, forcing the 2nd Armored Division to leave Zlatousi by the end of January 2583.[4]
Milligan's World[edit]
The battle for Milligan's World in late 2583 was similar to that for Zlatousi; the 24th Galedon Regulars were ordered to conquer Milligan's World in the face of entrenched Alliance 2nd Armored Division forces and a substantial planetary militia. This time the Alliance forces were more heavily dug in, and present in greater numbers than on Zlatousi; to make matters worse for the 24th Galedon Regulars, they were unable to draw on the same supply chain that had sustained them during their earlier conquest. Despite the best efforts of the 24th Galedon Regulars they were unable to conquer Milligan's World, but the commander of the DCMS forces in the Task Force reported the 24th Galedon Regulars' campaign as a completely successful reconnaissance raid which had inflicted heavy damage on the Alliance forces.[5]
The 24th Galedon Regulars would remain on Zlatousi as an occupying garrison until the end of the war.[1]
Reunification War[edit]
- The 24th Galedon Regulars receive a +1 bonus to any physical attack To-hit Rolls.[6]
- The 24th Galedon Regulars are not subject to forced withdrawal rules, and will not break.[6]
- The 24th Galedon Regulars receive a -1 penalty to any roll made to determine the availability of advanced components, replacement equipment or supplies.[6]
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 Historical: Reunification War, p. 141, "Outworlds Alliance Front"
- ↑ Historical: Reunification War, p. 116, "Sevon"
- ↑ Historical: Reunification War, p. 119, "Valentina"
- ↑ Historical: Reunification War, p. 121-122, "Kazanka, Nexus Ri and Zlatousi"
- ↑ Historical: Reunification War, p. 125, "Kurita's Overeager Appetite"
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 Historical: Reunification War, p. 182, "Galedon Regulars"


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Bold amphibians, sphinctastic centipedes/
Time for an update on the English side of things. Cheeky Frawg Books, a new e-book publisher headed by Ann & Jeff Vandermeer, will publish the English translation of my short story collection, Vem är Arvid Pekon?. The working title is Jagannath, and will (as you can see from the title) have some added content. The idea is to let it slither onto the market in early 2012. You can see Cheeky Frawg's publishing schedule for 2011 here, along with their upcoming projects for 2012. There's a LOT of interesting stuff in there - a translation of Leena Krohn's Tainaron; the ODD? anthology released in October, and later on a 3-part series of Finnish weird fiction.
I should probably do something about this blog - divide it into sections for publications in Swedish and English, for one. Come up with a spiffy name and design. I'm sure it'd be good for business. This whole marketing yourself thing, I don't know.