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I received this book for free from the author in exchange for an honest review.
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When I first started this book I thought it was slow and was reminded quite often that Jimmy and Frank were 12 year old boys. As the book progresses you find out just how weird or different the neighbours are, especially Mr. Blake. I had no idea what the book was about and didn't know where it would take me. This book is unpredictable, and that is what I liked about it.
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Read: 18 July 2015
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While the 16 point Tory lead on Sunday provided big headlines and no doubt cheered up Conservatives across the country, I suspect even the most rabid Tory suspected in their heart that it was probably an outlier and that the lead would return to more normal levels in the next YouGov poll. The latest ICM poll however suggests there may indeed have been some sort of shift in public opinion.
The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian has topline voting intention figures, with changes from their poll conducted last week, of CON 42%(+2), LAB 29%(-2), LDEM 21%(+1). The poll was conducted between the 14th and 16th, so would have included David Cameron's speech to the Tory spring conference.
The Conservative lead of 13 points is the largest I can find looking back at ICM polls since 1987. While it's smaller than the 16 point lead the Tories enjoyed with YouGov at the weekend, this seems to be a pattern between ICM and YouGov recently – the higher levels of Lib Dem support reported by ICM are at the expense of the Tories. Whichever pollster is correct, they seem to be interpreting the same underlying position.
Asked about who they trust more with the economy, ICM found an 8 point lead for the Conservatives, 40% to 32%.
It appears that, for whatever reason, the budget has heralded a fall in confidence in Labour's economic management and a decisive switch towards the Conservatives. While we've got a couple of polls confirming it, what we can't tell is whether it will last at all. If it does we are in a new game – it's the sort of lead where David Cameron is going to stop facing questions about why he isn't doing better, and is instead going to end up facing more criticism from his own troops about why he isn't being bolder. Labour would start facing assumptions of their defeat in the media and itchy backbenchers with the minds focused by possible unemployment.
UPDATE: Tables now up on ICM's website here. The difference between the lead here and the lead in YouGov's poll was actually mostly down to ICM's topline adjustment for the "spiral of silence" – the theory that some people who say don't know are actually supporters of an unpopular party who are too bashful to admit it to the interviewer. While people still refer to this an as adjustment to make up for "shy Tories", for the past five years at least it's normally favoured "shy Labourites". This month ICM's unadjusted figures would have been CON 43%, LAB 28%, LDEM 21%.
88 Responses to "Now ICM shows double-digit Tory lead"1 2 Next »
I suspect what has hurt labour about the budget is that whether people thought the tax increases were right or not they were still tax increases.
Therefore if we divide the public into those who agree, disagree and the "floaters".
I doubt that there will be many people who agree with higher drink or car taxes who would switch to Labour because of it, as most people who support these measures probably support Labour or Libdem and LibDems have other reasons not to vote Labour.
On the other hand those that don't agree especially on alcohol or think they already pay enough tax may well have been given the push they need to leave Labour.
As to the floaters I think with rising inflation and clouds on the horizon they may feel that though it's not fair to blame the government, but that it doesn't seem to be doing anything about it.
So the increases aren't seen as all together fair and from a government that doesn't seem to be able to turn it around, enough to vote for change.
Brown and Darlings attempts to portray it as a global thing and in effect "nothing to do with them" hasn't worked, while Cameron playing Joseph in the technicolour coat with is " spent in the fat years" line, seems to have struck a chord.
As I have said before Browns media handling is less a clunking fist and more a ham one.
Lastly we should remember that if you give people a tax cut they tend to say "about time to we were taxed to much" while if you raise it, then watch out.
I've always liked this quote from the Hobbit as it sums up the public reaction at times like this….
"His rage passes description – the sort of rage that is only seen when rich folk that have more than they can enjoy suddenly lose something that they have long had but have never before used or wanted."
Most of the people who welcomed the Tory move on inheritance tax probably wouldn't have had to pay it but they still felt that they were being unfairly treated.
End result enough to make a couple of percent maybe as much as 3% to switch, but if it's from Labour straight to the Tories that turns an 65 lead in to a 12% one….
Well this is disasterous news for Labour. All the evidence now points to the fact they have lost ground because of economic management. Indeed, poll after poll is now showing the Tories leading on the question of; Who would best manage the economy? This is the first time in New Labour's hhistory that they haven't had the high ground over the economy and now confidence has slipped it may prove incredibly difficult to get it back – Particularly if you think that economic conditions will continue to worsen for the forseeable future.
The most interesting thing I notice from the weekend polls is that the large Tory gains seem to have come directly from Labour. With 4 recent polls (including mayoral poll) with good sample sizes show there seems to be big shift.
The question is why?.
Is it a poorly received budget and the tax increases that have resulted.
An increasing decline in the future outlook of the economy and people starting to blame labour.
Ed Balls' "So What" comment during Camerons' reply to the budget and the negative coverage it received in the press (Daily Express etc).
Is it down to labour's refusal to hold a referendum on the EU Treaty and the recent vote in the house.
Or it down to David Cameron appearing on ITV with his family showing him as likeable, ordinary family man in contrast to Gordon Brown.
Looking at the polls at the end of Nov/early Dec , the Labour position was almost as bad as now and they had pretty much recovered it before last week . It is still possible for them to recover again but it will take rather longer now .
The Tories could be set for some important gains in London and elsewhere on May 1st if these polls are correct.
Jmaie, its all of the above, except probably Europe (which I don't believe would make enough people switch to really make much differance)
Mark, of course the big differance to the Labour collapse in November, from which the partially seemed to recover, is that in November they were still seen as economically competent, and the vote collpase was down to a polititical decision, rather than economics. As this is the first time in their history that New Labour has got into trouble over the economy, its very difficult to say how much damage it will do and what it means for Labour long term prospects.
Jamie, its all of the above, except probably Europe (which I don't believe would make enough people switch to really make much differance in national polls)
Mark, of course the big differance to the Labour collapse in November, from which they partially seemed to recover, is that in November they were still seen as economically competent, and the vote collapse was down to a polititical decision, rather than economics.
As this is the first time in their history that New Labour has got into trouble over the economy, its very difficult to say how much damage it will do and what it means for Labours long term prospects.
(reposted for spelling)
ICM's polls have put the parties closer than some other pollsters until recently so to have a result
like this means something seismic is happening and it has happened since the Budget.
IMHO the general public are now beginning to feel the pinch of constantly escalating price increases and the Budget(for some people) was clearly a watershed in that in this time,of relative economic hardship, the Government was seen to do little to help the situation apart from raise taxes further.
The "Feel Good Factor" is well and truly gone.
Its hard to know where we go from here but that's 3 polls in a row since the Budget where the previous mould has been broken.
I look for the next tranche of polls to confirm this trend. Labour have clearly lost the moral high ground on the economy and almost certainly the next general election whch won't now be until 2010.
Jamie – I'm not convinced that the public know who Ed Balls is, let alone what he said during a budget response, and if you're reading The Express you probably weren't a fan anyway.
It's simpler than that, they're feeling the pinch financially and are blaming the government, which is being re-enforced by bad press for the budget and the economy in general.
KTL The end of November ICM poll had Conservatives with a 11% lead which did not last long . I agree that this time it will be harder and take longer for Labour to recover but they have 2 years to do so and probably will to some extent , the crux is by how much they will recover .
"this means something seismic is happening and it has happened since the Budget."
I just got a £1100 council tax bill for a band B property. Felt pretty seismic to me.
We are still no nearer answering the great conundrum as to whether Yougov or ICM are giving the right sort of levels for LibDem support .
Looking at Yougov their figure for LibDems in their latest poll for the South of England was 15% if true a LibDem wipeout . ICM/NofW figure for the South was 27% ( higher than at the last GE ) if true minimal if any LibDem losses to the Conservatives .
These figures are clearly incompatible . FWIW local election results would point to ICM being nearer the truth .
these are the first polls to show Tory support at 40% or over when the Lib Dem support has held at 20% or over. Before the assumption was that the Tories were benefitting from a poor LibDem showing however this could now not be the case with what seems like Labour support starting to split to the Tories and LibDems
Mark, we all know that the Lib-Dems do better in by elections than they do in general elections. I suspect the Lib-Dem position, in a general election, will come out somewhere between ICM and YouGov, but probably nearer YouGov.
Fascinating. I never would have thought the budget could have had such a negative effect on Labour. Will these own goals by Labour ever stop?
How can you have confidence in the government, when it is telling us all save more and borrow less,and then does the complete opposite
whats clear is that if labour do have some sort of limeted come back, it may come from the LD's and not the conservatives the best chance to see what could happen in 2009/2010 is the up coming local elections to english and welsh councils and the london mayor, if labour poll as bad as in 2006 or lower it could be the final knock-out blow to labour or even the LD's if their vote drops theirs all to play for and this time with a more even pitch to play on it's anyones games, at this rate to Con's could hang on to coventry and that is very bad for the other parties and also some more gains on birmingham council for the Con's as well. current polling put labour down by about 200-300 seats the lib dems down 100+ and the Con's up by around 300-350 seats somthing we have not said is the BNP could make gains, big gains at that on some councils in say Yorkshire and a few maybe on other councils but i do hope not as racist right wings like them and others should not stand for council or any other form of elections and if they do they should be voted out and banned from standing ever again, but another good poll for the conservatives, current running average of top line figues for this month is:
CON 40.5 +7.3 on last GE (+0.8 this month so far)
LAB 30.3 -5.8 on last GE (-2.7 this month so far)
LD 19.0 -3.6 on last GE (+2.0 this month so far)
OTH 10.2 +2.1 on last GE (-0.1 this month so far)
CON LEAD 10.2% over LABOUR
And it goes on….Hindsight is a wonderful thing ! The only thing that still bothers me about the logic of the British public – is that this government has lasted 11 years at all – i could understand them wanting a change in 1997 – but after seeing what was elected – went on and elected them again and again !!
Tony's "teflon" has indeed worn off – but at what cost in many terms after 11 years .
I saw and felt the need for change in the British electorate way back in mid 2007 – the British wanted an election to oust the government at the end of 2007 – but that chance was taken from them – now they are fed up of waiting and it's showing more and more in the POLLS !
Perhaps as i quoted in autumn 2007 – that Brown had called an election and the Tories had won as i predicted they would , and they would have ! Brown would have lost by a smaller margin and looked less foolish – but now at each election and finally at the general election both the Labour and Liberal Parties will be dessimated nationally.
WMA is 41:31:18. And FWIW my guess was that the true situation was 41:30:18.
I think the basic problem is that the voters no longer believe in Brown's claim to be economically competent. As I said last year, pretty well all serious people had disbelieved this some time ago, and it is beginning to sink in. With the result that economic turbulence no longer helps Brown, it helps sink him. Note how pretty well everyone agreed in the youGov poll that the govt wasted taxpayers money. Serious people will of course contrast the way in which the US handled Bear Sterns with the Northern Rock fiasco.
I think the dramatic switch is due less to the budget and more to the sense of despair about the economy in general – the news is contiual doom and gloom on the media about the world outlook, mortgage repossession, credit crunch etc. I guess the result of the next general election hangs on the outcome of the current global slow down. If things right themselves over the next year then it will be all to play play, if not….
If Cameron is called upon to be bolder (on tax, Europe, immigration) then there'll be less chance of a change in Brown's approach, as he'll simply point the finger at Old Tory-dom.
Calls from the right for the wholesale privatisation of public services might tempt Brown to play out the old arguments in the hope that his argument will prevail again.
Already I hear right-wingers saying the voters got it wrong in 97, and that we'd have been better off with the Conservatives. (ie no the minimum wage, less public sector investment, higher unemployment, no BofE independence).
Bit partisan, but I find it quite offensive to read Mike Richardson's comments about my level of logic/intelligence.
I get the sense of a loss of purpose and direction in Labour, rather than a great energising uplift for Cameron. Brown needs to get hold of some new ideas and start selling them effectively. Still up to two years to go.
Ideas don't necessarily cost money.
I think that the reasons are fairly straight forward. Brown/Labour have had an unwaveringly bad press for six months, the global economy is stuttering (but still the effects on the UK may not come to much), and it has been 11 years since the Tories, so people have forgotten how tired they were.
It also shows how out of touch I am. When I see a politician on TV with their family, it makes my skin crawl!!!!
Personally I think Cameron is okay, but I have my concerns about the party. I think they will fall apart over Europe at the first instance. I'm just glad the Treaty should be out of the way by then.
jon tt – i'd agree that the slump is down to Labour's failings more than any great Tory revival. For whatever reason (part bad luck, part his own fault) Brown seems to have become mired in the minutiae of government and is coming across as more of administrator of the country than a leader.
I'd be interesting to know what Cameron's approval rating is compared to Blair's at a similar period in opposition. It might provide an insight into whether people are liking the Tories or disliking Labour. Anyone have any figures?
With about 26 months to go before the next election there's still all to play for. Labour's chances will depend on (1) whether the current global financial turmoil dissipates by the end of this year (2) whether Brown and his team are eventually seen as having steered the country safely through the choppy waters (3) whether Cameron and friends can convince the public that they really have a 'moderate' agenda. Also, the electoral arithmetic seems to indicate that Labour will benefit if the Lib Dems hold up close to their performance in recent general elections and if there's some peeling off of disgruntled right-wing Tories to UKIP or similar. I would agree with some of the less partisan views in this thread that the public haven't warmed to Cameron and friends and I wonder whether they ever will really trust a bunch of old Etonians.
"and I wonder whether they ever will really trust a bunch of old Etonians"
What's the fact that they are a tiny number of Old Etonians in the party got to do with trust?
John tt I agree with much of what you say,its stupid to say voters get it wrong whichever party wins an election, you may have personal views either way but the results dont lie,if people are not happy with a government they will vote them out and keep them out!
Maybe that time has now come for Labour,many people over the years have reluctantly put up with the creeping tax burden but things seem to be unraveling now
Huge increases in household bills, petrol prices,etc along with the tax burden it is becoming a bit scarey, and if the government are unable to reduce interest rates you can`t see things getting much better in the near future.
I do agree with Mike regarding GB decision not to call a GE in the Autumn, I have mentioned this before I feel he shot himself and his party in the foot, it sent out the message of no confidence in the British Public to decide for themselves, whether or not we were going in the right direction with GB and NU Labour,I belive that no confidence will be returned in a big way unless "events" intervine
There does sometimes seem to be a tired feel to the government (akin to the later Major years) – but, despite the very partisan reactions of many contributors here, I detect disappointment but no general hatred of Labour (as there was for the Conservatives) – and no great enthusiasm for the alternatives either.
Budgets come and go, and generally make little long-term impact on opinion. It is far more likely that the present dip in Labour support is due to the unrelenting "doom and gloom" – and the government will inevitably, even if unfairly, get the blame. But the gloom still remains a theoretical possibility rather than an actual recession.
The whole political future probably balances on what actually happens over the rest of this year. If we get through relatively unscathed, opinion is likely to accept that it was caused mainly by problems originating in America and the government helped to see it through. But if we are badly affected, the government will be blamed.
To a lesser extent it also, as always, depends partly on "events" – luck! And here, Labour has avoided any major bad press stories for several months, while the Conservatives have mis-fired on many of the attacks they hoped would wound Labour. For example, all the fuss over the Lisbon Treaty will have faded to insignificance in a year or two.
So, while the most recent poll results are potentially significant, they would only be terminal if the general election was going to take place this year. As that is MOST unlikely, any predictions based on them are as tentative as those based on what looked like the beginning of a Labour recovery a month or so ago, before the global markets looked like going into melt-down. We are in a more turbulent period, economically and politically, than any time since the 1980s. (And don't forget Major won his election, against all expectations).
What does "NU" stand for and why is it appended to Labour?
The fall-out from the non-election decision has lasted a few months, and I think was expected to last a while.
Events like the news of the lost data (which I think had been known about at No 10 at the time), the credit crunch, the fact that Brown doesn't have a "teflon" layer and seems to regard the media as less important (than Blair did).
For Cameron to be the next PM there'd have to be a critical point of no return to healthy poll readings for Brown. I'm not sure we've reached it yet.
"Others" appear to be gaining slightly on this Poll.
The real surprise is that we did not start to get polls like this after the Northern Rock crisis, and the only explanation is that many voters still remember Tory performance on the ERM. Clearly people have now decided that the worsening economic situation, and Labour's feeble budget reponse to it (though I don't see how much different the other major parties could have done), means that Labour are even worse economic managers than the Conservatives.
My hunch is that the die is now cast, just as the Tories were consistently shown as lame ducks in both polls and bye-elections between 1992 and 1997. This poll is a precursor of what we will get used to until the next election.
The only major thing Labour could do about this situation is to ditch Brown as well as the Chancellor – which would presumably have to happen next Autumn. Perhaps it is time for the polling organisations to ask questions about how people would vote if Labour had a different Prime Minister. The problem with this is that, as Jon H points out in relation to Ed Balls, many voters have not even heard of the next generation of Labour politicians from which a new Labour Prime Minister would have to come.
On this poll, Labour would be reduced to a rump of MPs of whome something like a quarter or a third would come from Scotland and Wales. There appears to be a substantial group of voters who vote nationalist in Scotland/Wales elections and Labour for Westminster. There is a long-term issue as to whether this group would continue to support Labour at Westminster if Labour lost office and the prospect of an early return, becuase presumably this group are voting pragmatically because of Labour's high funding of services in Scotland and Wales. If a Labour opposition lost votes on a large scale to the Nationalists in 2014/2015, as Labour lost votes to the Lib Dems in the 1980s in marginals that went Tory in 1979/1983 (this would probably happen again too), Labour is in very serious trouble indeed (as is UK unity). Labour only survived the 1980s on support in the North, Wales and Scotland, and I doubt whether a future Labour rump could repeat this trick.
This poll and the previous ICM one should kick into touch the idea that the next election will depend on a tiny number of electors in selected marginals.
John tt; Sorry I dont know why I wrote "NU" Labour I think I must have seen it posted here before and went with the flow
Frederic – while the population don't know or care who Ed Balls are, I actually think that that may work in his (and the other members of Labour's next generation's) favour.
As I've said, I'm not convinced that this is a pro-Tory poll as much as an anti-Labour one. If this is true then a change of leadership and direction and a disowning of the old regime might be the best option for them.
On the other hand if the world doesn't go into economic meltdown (which is no certainty) and if Brown can catch a few months without a balls up and get a decent populist policy initiative or two out there, then it could all be very different.
Cameron hasn't really differentiated the Tories significantly (the possibility of tax cuts if they can be afforded in a hypothetical second term isn't a real winner as far as populist policy goes) so his fortunes are very much in the wind.
With respect I think many of you are missing the main point on whether it's a pro Tory poll or just Labour struggleing with bad press.
Think back to last October, Labour were in the lead in all the polls, then Cameron & Osborne anounce the Tories plans for inheritance tax and wham they take the lead in the polls, before Brown had made any decision and even though the plans would effect very few people.
That tells me the public are once again starting look at Labour as the tax and spend party they have always been and that has to be very worrying for Labour.
Jon H I disagree with the last part of your comment,I belive Cameron and the Tories have made a clever move in dismissing short term tax cuts and ruling them out in their first term, I think we all know that having low interest rates helps far more working people in this country than a few pence off income tax will ever do (except for the wealthy)
But the message sent out by the Tories that they will over time reduce the tax burden, is something that the voters want to hear and belive WILL happen under the Tories, they also know this will never happen under a Brown government no matter how they try and spin it
Glenn – I agree that the overall policy of bringing down the tax burden is a winner for the Tories (though personally I don't agree with it) but I'm not sure that the delay plays the way you say.
I think people vote emotionally on financial issues
The parallel for the Tories matching the spending plans is New Labour doing the same but I don't see this as being hugely relevant. The issue Labour had was how to answer questions around economic competence. While that's not irrelevant for the Tories, it's not the issue of the moment (I think the economy polls way below tax as an issue).
The risk they have is that people elect them thinking it will get better and are disillusioned when it doesn't. After all, if you're not getting a low tax goverment with the Tories what are you getting.
John H
Bearing in mind John Major got a bigger popular vote than Tony, was Tony really that popular? [Tories sing less?]
Of alternatively, does it matter? Avote cast agaisnt someone carries as much weight as one cast for someone.
FWIW I don't think the fervour with which Blair/Labour were greeted in 1997 will be repeated.
Too much disillusionment followed. Which one of those cheering people wouldn't have been stunned to silence if presented with a picture of what was to come in Iraq.
Its arguable that after that, the country voted for Labour without enthusiasm, more against the Tories, who were still uninspiring and the greater of two electoral evils.
'Rabid Tory'? No idea what you mean [I'll come to Mike in a minute]. We enjoyed You Gov but if anything are more surprised by this one continuing the theme.
It will subside, inevitably, but its the narrative that may be set up if poor Labour polls/good Tory polls are maintained, even if not as dramatic, that will be interesting.
Don't know if you caught the Civil Serf blog, now terminated. But in contrast to 'Teflon Tony', Gordon is known as 'Velcro' [because everything sticks!]
John H
Bearing in mind John Major got a bigger popular vote than Tony, was Tony really that popular? [Tories sing less?]
Of alternatively, does it matter? Avote cast agaisnt someone carries as much weight as one cast for someone.
FWIW I don't think the fervour with which Blair/Labour were greeted in 1997 will be repeated.
Too much disillusionment followed. Which one of those cheering people wouldn't have been stunned to silence if presented with a picture of what was to come in Iraq.
Its arguable that after that, the country voted for Labour without enthusiasm, more against the Tories, who were still uninspiring and the greater of two electoral evils.
'Rabid Tory'? No idea what you mean [I'll come to Mike in a minute]. We enjoyed You Gov but if anything are more surprised by this one continuing the theme.
It will subside, inevitably, but its the narrative that may be set up if poor Labour polls/good Tory polls are maintained, even if not as dramatic, that will be interesting.
Don't know if you caught the Civil Serf blog, now terminated. But in contrast to 'Teflon Tony', Gordon is known as 'Velcro' [because everything sticks!]
Sorry It told me I'd posted twice, but I just didn't listen!
Anthony – a general aside – can you recommend any good, readable books on polling? Nothing too statistical or academic, more the pop-science of polling.
Jon H; I think I will have to agree to disagree with you on the tax issue, I also belive it will give the Tories a boost on the economic competence issue
But I will be interested to how the Tories intend to spend public money if they get elected, they have said they will match Labour so it does not mean they will spend it in the same way, if the public are in tune with the way they intend to spend our hard earned cash, they could have a double wammy come election time, lower taxes over time and more efficient public spending plans, that has to be a vote winner if they can pull it off
Jon H."Bringing down the tax burden-personally I don't agree with it" Are you saying that you believe governments/civil servants spend tax revenue wisely? It would be interesting to find someone prepared to agree, and to make the argument in favour.
"We are still no nearer answering the great conundrum as to whether Yougov or ICM are giving the right sort of levels for LibDem support."
Could it be that the YouGov methodology is picking up more of a decline in the Libdems support in Scotland vs the ICM certainty to vote weighting?
Bringing down the tax burden is a different concept from spending tax revenue (more) wisely.
Cameron accepts that it is correct to raise and spend the enormous sums currently raised and spent. His only difference is that the sums should be spent more "wisely".
Hence Cameron a policy of building more "good schools" (presumably in contrast to Labour's policy of building bad ones).
Cameron also has pledged that the NHS should be "free at the point of NEED" . A subtle difference from Labour's "free at the point of DELIVERY", and I look forward to the definition of "need" being addressed if Cameron becomes PM!
Collin, in short, no I'm not convinced that governments necessarily spend money wisely, but nor am I convinced that the free market works in the interests of individuals or society, nor that it is as efficient as some make out.
One example: the amount spent on administration in the most heavily market driven healthcare system in the world, the United States, is per head greater than the total amount spent per head on the NHS in the UK. Yet despite this enormous expenditure and despite the obvious inefficiency of the NHS which one actually serves the people it serves better. Sure the very rich get great treatment but given the inefficiency, they're paying through the nose for it.
Given the choice between these two evils (market driven vs. nationalised) I would rather address public needs through a generally well meaning (if incompetent) semi-accountable government than through the entirely unaccountable market which has, at best, a very peripheral interest in the public good.
Markets drive profit and efficiency and these are good, but they're means to an end, not ends in themselves.
And yes there are arguements about allowing people to make their own choices but *draws breath and prepares to be beaten up* there are too many examples of people making bad choices to take this as an absolute. I'm not saying that people are dumb or unable to look after themselves, I believe that they're not given a chance.
When talking about free markets economics talks about "perfect information", that is that when people make purchasing decisions they understand the product, price and consequences perfectly.
Under these circumstances I think people would make good decisions but when, to take one example, you've got McDonald's marketing department outspending the health campaigns of various governments 10's if not 100's of pounds to one, that's patently not a case.
Because of this sort of thing it's inevitable that many (not all) people will make bad decisions – the odds are so heavily stacked against them they can't help it.
So ultimately I like markets, I just believe that they're a tool we should use rather than something we should be beholden to, and while I don't especially think governments do a good job, I just think they're less unappealing than the alternatives.
Does that make sense?
Oh, and for what it's worth I earn enough that I'm putting my money where my mouth is believing and voting for this.
I have changed my opinion over the years with regards to public spending, the evidence is now there that the only way to get value for money in all walks of life is through competion, as to how you can make that work with public services is a huge challenge, something that may be unpopular for a government in the short term, but I feel confident would benifit us all in the long term
Chris , good question but no both Yougov and this ICM poll have LibDems at 16% in the North and Scotland combined . The Midlands/Wales figure at 18% is identical too . The BIG difference is in the South of England vote as I posted earlier .
ICM have detailed data on their website of a special Wales survey done for BBC Wales . Unfortunately there is no voting question but a number of interesting questions on attitudes to the Welsh Assembly .
One interesting question that struck me was that only 39% of those asked correctly answered who was running the Welsh Assembly ( Lab/Plaid) 26% thought Labour alone 10% Lab/LibDem 8 Plaid alone and 3% LibDem alone . Noone thought the Conservatives were running Wales .
The really important things can only be done by the state – defence, police, Bank of England. And the British people have shown that some other essential provisions, eg the Health Service and Education, come into the same category (allowing private services to remain for those who want to pay extra). In nearly all of these there are some aspects where competitive private contributions can be used as part of the organisation – but I cannot imagine any political party being elected on a platform of privatising the NHS or schools. Some, and not just committed socialists, wish that Labour had been brave enough to restore the Railways to public ownership too.
It is always open to politicians to look for "waste" – and as the workers and managers involved at all levels are human beings, no service will be 100% efficient. But as my near name-sake Jon H said, a comparison of the NHS and the American system shows how efficient (for the great majority) and how cost effective our system is, despite its many faults.
Remember the argument about the use of official sta by the Gov.
All is not well, as maany on this site thought!
It is not surprising that there has been a surge in anti-government fervour – there often is following a budget. The wealthy did very well under Thatcher budgets, just as the poor did well under Blair. The Tories are promising anything they think will win them votes: they are now promising more health visitors and more of anything that springs to mind. In the rigorous interrogation of a General Election campaign, substance will have to prevail over style, if they are to win. Their chief spokespersons are somewhat feeble both intellectually and charismatically. After Cameron and Hague, who else is there? I suspect that this increase in their support will fade substantially over the coming two years.


text:
Monday, 20 August 2007
Mahud has infected me with a meme called The Joys and Trials of Religion.
I'm going to play, even though I don't consider my belief set a religion.
Just because I love talking about myself.
I'm a Pagan who believes that every God and Goddess is a creation of Our mind.
That makes Them real.
In addition, I believe that We are Their creation.
All of us, creating and shaping this space together.
Here, then, are the
1. You have to use your own belief system for the meme. No fair using someone else's to make a joke or satire. Being humorous about your own religion is encouraged!
2. You have to have at least one joy and one trial. More are encouraged. And no, they don't have to be equal in length, but please be honest.
3. You have to tag at least one other person. More are appreciated!
4. Please post these rules!
OK then -the Joys:
It's One Big Joy!
When I consider that I'm incarnate for the express purpose of experiencing life; when I consider that all the Nelson Mandelas, Mahatma Gandhis, Pema Chodrons are All Me; when I consider that every tree and blade of grass, each charmed quark and rotating quasar are Me; when I consider that each particle from the ancient trilobite to the Magellanic Clouds are Me, too - how can I not hear the Intro to the Song of Creation?
I wish I could hear more, but that's part of the joy- finding ways to listen.
You know this is coming now, don't you?
The Trials:
...are the mirror of the Joys.
They flow from the same source, which is Thee and Me, and includes the knowledge that every child rapist, each puppy-murderer, every petty thief and power-mad despoiler of the Earth,are Thee and Me also.
This can hurt very deeply.
Do the Trials and Joys balance out?
No way!
The Joys are, and always have been, the main reason for Being.
They are why I'm relearning my Dance.
In the Spirit of Infection (and of laughter) I'm tagging just one other person: God, aka BBC
who will probably say that he doesn't have a religion, either.
Pic:Iron Oak
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text:
practice howsoe'er expert
In fitting aptest words to things,
Or voice the richest-toned that sings,
Hath power to give thee as thou wert?
care not in these fading days
To raise a cry that lasts not long,
And round thee with the breeze of song
To stir a little dust of praise.
leaf has perish'd in the green,
And, while we breathe beneath the sun,
The world which credits what is done
Is cold to all that might have been.
here shall silence guard thy fame;
But somewhere, out of human view,
Whate'er thy hands are set to do
Is wrought with tumult of acclaim.


text:
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text:
South Bay arts calendar for Sept. 15 to 20
Whimsical, colorful
"José Lozano: Chicano Trickster" opens with a reception from 6 to 9 p.m. at the Manhattan Beach Art Center, 1560 Manhattan Beach Blvd., Manhattan Beach. Hours, Wednesday through Saturday from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m., and Sunday from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. Closes Oct. 8. Call (310) 802-5448 or go to citymb.info. (see story, last week's Easy Reader)
'i' before 'e' except after 'c'
"The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee" is a Tony Award-winning music comedy, and it's opening for a limited run at the Norris Theatre, 27570 Norris Center Drive, Rolling Hills Estates. See adolescent overachievers (performed by real live adults) go head to toe with one another while coping with… well, lots of obstacles! Fridays and Saturdays at 8, plus Saturdays and Sundays at 2 p.m. Through Oct. 1. Tickets, $30 to $70. Call (310) 544-0403 or go to palosverdesperformingarts.com.
Left your heart there?
"San Francisco," starring Jeanette MacDonald and Clark Gable, screens at 8:15 p.m. on Friday and Saturday, plus 2:30 p.m. on Saturday, in the Old Town Music Hall, 140 Richmond St., El Segundo. It's among the finest dramas to have emerged from Hollywood in the 1930s. Tickets, $10 general; $8 seniors. (310) 322-2592 or go to OldTownMusicHall.org.
Click it, or no ticket
Kevin Click and his band play soulful Southern American music at 7:15 p.m. in the James Armstrong Theatre, 3330 Civic Center Drive, Torrance. Tickets, $10. Call (310) 781-7171 or go to kevinclick.com.
Saturday, September 16
Miller time
"All My Sons," one of the more acclaimed plays (1947) by Arthur Miller, opens at 8 p.m. in the Torrance Theatre, 1316 Cabrillo Ave., Old Torrance. Performances, Friday and Saturday at 8 p.m. and Sunday at 2 p.m. (plus a 7 p.m. Thursday night performance on October 12 which includes a Q&A with the cast). Tickets, $30. Closes Oct. 15. Call (424) 243-6882 or go to TorranceTheatreCompany.com.Fiddling about
Burning Heart Bluegrass, a group with guitar, banjo, mandolin, fiddle and bass, performs a free concert at 2 p.m. downstairs in the Friends of the Library room of the El Segundo Public Library, 111 W. Mariposa Ave., at Main St., in El Segundo. (310) 524-2728.
Saloon jazz
San Francisco-based Tumbledown House performs vintage-inspired jazz at 8 p.m. in Marsee Auditorium at El Camino College, Crenshaw and Redondo Beach boulevards, Torrance. The group also classifies what they play as modern speakeasy. They have released several albums. Tickets, $24. Call (800) 832-ARTS or go to centerforthearts.org.Drawing to a close
And painting, too. The monthly Malaga Cove Summer Art Shows come to an end for the year, so stop by on Saturday and/or Sunday from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. to see what the 30 or so artists are offering. The plaza, and the art, is on Palos Verdes Dr. W., between Via Corta and Via Chico, Palos Verdes Estates.
"glass/cedar/grass" opens at the Palos Verdes Art Center, 5504 W. Crestridge Road, Rancho Palos Verdes, with a reception from 6 to 9 p.m. The show featuring the work of Haida artists Corey Stein, Lisa Telford, and Corey Bulpitt. They make objects (beadwork, carvings, weavings) out of natural materials. Through Nov. 26. Call (310) 541-2479 or go to pvartcenter.org.
Jazz with benefits attached
The Richard Sherman Trio performs a benefit jazz concert, its 33rd, for Seaside Community Church. The performance takes place at 7 p.m. in the James Armstrong Theatre, 3330 Civic Center Drive, Torrance. Proceeds benefit several social service groups such as the Re-Unification of Families Program. Tickets, $25. Call (310) 375-4441 or go to shermanpianoman.com.Multi-instrumentalist
Jonathan Sussman, who can handle the viola and the flute, as well as the piano, performs (with pianist Dana Burnett) at 3 p.m. in the First Lutheran Church and School, 2900 W. Carson St., Torrance. The program includes work by Schubert, J.S. Bach, Max Bruch, Georges Dutilleux, and François Borne. Free; donations appreciated. (310) 316-5574.
Meet 'em and greet 'em
An artists' reception for Artlife Gallery's "Life Circumstances" exhibition takes place from 6 to 9 p.m. in the gallery at 720 C South Allied Way, Plaza El Segundo, in El Segundo. Hours, Monday through Saturday from 11:30 a.m. to 8 p.m. and Sunday from 12 to 6 p.m. The work is on view through Sept. 30. Call (310) 938-2511.
Cuba, unsimplified
"The Cuban Matrix" explores "aspects of the digital mediation between Cuba and the rest of the world, delving into the intersection between the country's isolation and its increasing interaction with modern technology." Opening with a reception from 6 to 9 p.m. in the Torrance Art Museum, 3320 Civic Center Drive, Torrance. Through Nov. 4. Also on view: "Yoshua Okón: Oracle." (310) 618-6388 or go to TorranceArtMuseum.com.
Rhythm and color
"Relational Undercurrents: Contemporary Art of the Caribbean Archipelago," curated by Tatiana Flores, featured 21st century art from the Caribbean islands. On view through Feb. 25 at the Museum of Latin American Art (MoLAA), 628 Alamitos Ave., Long Beach. (562) 437-1689 or go to molaa.org.
Relive it again
Did you see, or did you miss, the "California Locos" show when it was at Manhattan Beach earlier this year? Well, the core group of artists, John Van Hamersveld, Chaz Bojórquez, Dave Tourjé, Norton Wisdom, and Gary Wong, have a new show opening with a reception from 6 to 10 p.m. at Eastern Projects Gallery, 900 N. Broadway #1090, Los Angeles. Details at easternprojectsgallery.com.
Sunday, September 17
Sit him down, let him play
Pianist Frederick Hodges presents "A Salute to Stage and Screen" at 2:30 p.m. in the Old Town Music Hall, 140 Richmond St., El Segundo. He'll play music from old movies and Broadway shows such as "Laura," "Top Hat," and "Gypsy." Tickets, $20. Call (310) 322-2592 or go to OldTownMusicHall.org.
They have plenty to say
"Hope: Exploring the Reciprocal Influence of Western and Latin American Video and New Media Art in Cuba" opens at 10 a.m. at ESMoA, 208 Main St., El Segundo. Introductory remarks at 2 p.m. by curator Frency Fernandez. Through Jan. 28.
Is the dance really over?
Andy and Renee of Dylanfest fame, present "The Last Waltz – A Tribute to The Band" at 7:30 p.m. in the Grand Annex, 434 W. Sixth St., San Pedro. Tickets, $20 to $42. Call (310) 833-4813 or go to grandannex.org.
Tuesday, September 19
Washed away, forever
Senior Librarian Erin Schoonover leads a book discussion about Sonali Deraniyagata's "Wave," the author's account of the Dec. 26, 2004 tsunami off the coast of Sri Lanka, where she lost her parents, her husband, and her two sons. Free. Takes place from 6:30 to 7:30 p.m. in the second floor meeting room of the Redondo Beach Main Library, 303 N. Pacific Coast Hwy, Redondo Beach. (310) 318-0675 op. 5.Wednesday, September 20
Dazzling guitarist
Latin Grammy Award-winning Flamenco composer and virtuoso guitarist Vicente Amigo performs at 8 p.m. in the Redondo Beach Performing Arts Center, 1935 Manhattan Beach Blvd., Redondo Beach. Amigo hails from Córdoba, Spain. Tickets start at $25. Call (800) 595-4849 or go to laflamencofestival.com. ER
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Yesterday was a day to mark on my personal calendar: someone asked me what I'd published, listened to the very small list (in which I included stuff that has been paid for but not published), and was actually impressed. I blushed, I stammered, I almost peed my pants. But judge for yourself.
Anyway it was this mom and her daughter. The mother was about forty, if that. She wore a head scarf (but not the Amish/Mennonite thing, just a denim-blue headscarf), a blue calico shirt, and a blue calico dress. The calicos did not match. She was round--not fat, but round.
Her daughter was blonde, skinny, fresh-faced, and altogether clean-looking. Fifteen years old. (I think I remember her mother saying that.) They were in the writing-reference section, both of them sitting on the floor cross-legged, surrounded by a few books that they would shelve and unshelve, flip through, pass to each other, and put carefully aside.
"Do you think this one will explain how to write better characters?"
"Look through the chapters."
"'How to write better characters.'"
"We could try that one..."
And then the statement the parent of every teenager dreads: "I don't know..."
So I recommended a couple. John Gardner's The Art of Fiction. The Write Great Fiction series.
"My daughter wants to be a writer, and being a home-schooling mother, I'll try to indulge her."
Her daughter didn't roll her eyes, which took discipline. They talked to each other about a book that the daughter had been edging toward, picking up and putting back, for a couple of minutes. As if she knew it wasn't going to fly.
"Look, mom. 'Your character is at a party. Would she flirt or stand next to the wall, too shy to talk?'" She giggled. "Flirting."
Her mother stopped, suddenly still. (I'd never really seen anybody actually do that before. People make a lot of noise all the time. You just don't notice until they don't.) "But you wouldn't flirt, would you?"
"Oh, no, mother..." the girl babbled on for a few seconds, then interjected as one of those afterthoughty-things-that-teenage-girls-do, "I might have accidentally flirted."
Warning: If your child expresses interest in any type of creative writing, take this as a red flag that your child enjoys...drama. This may cause issues for cut-and-dried, black-and-white types who enjoy peace and quiet over conflict and change.
"But you didn't flirt, did you?"
"No, not really, I guess."
The girl allowed herself to be derailed from the conversation, but it was there in her eyes: someday, I am going to shock my mother, and it's going to be fun.


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Maybe Accepting Guests
- Last login almost 3 years ago
Join Couchsurfing to see Filine's full profile. It's free!
About Me
describing the own personality - wow, that isn´t easy ;-)
most often I am very friendly, open minded and hopefully funny, interested in a lot of things (now I startet Hula Hoop and am really excited about it).
Why I'm on Couchsurfing
For now I had only a lot of expirience at the hospitality club, on couchsurfing I am new. Hoping to make a lot of good Experiences :-)
I love to share time with friends, for example hula hoop wogether, cooking, talking laughing, making music, just startet to play clarinet, swimming, travelling, I enjoy to bike especially through nature, gardening (we have a community garden near Marburg), enjoying sun, see and nature...
- dancing
- cooking
- beer
- drinking
- clubbing
- gardening
- traveling
- music
- cycling
- swimming
One Amazing Thing I've Done
travelling through spain couchsurfing for weeks, it was a great experience, to meet so many nice and helpful people on this journey!
This fall on Ibiza, enjoying the nature and to get to know the island better!
Teach, Learn, Share
I could teach to hula hoop, to bake bread...
What I Can Share with Hosts
Showing you around in Marburg and the surrounding area, help you with things if you are new in town, go dancing or drink a beer or tea in one of the nice cafes and bars.
I live in a flat with two very nice women, we have a mobile bed for guests, but no extra room, so I have to ask them, if somebody want to visit us. Some times I can offer you my room, if one of my flatmates isn´t here, so than I sleep in hers.
Countries I've Visited
England, France, Italy, Netherlands, Spain
Countries I've Lived In
Germany, Italy


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Phillip Schofield found his one chip challenge on 'This Morning' today (14.11.17) "really painful", despite keeping his cool whilst on air.
The 55-year-old presenter impressed viewers during today's episode when he became the first person on British television to put the world's hottest crisp - which left one US news anchor on the floor live on air - in his mouth, and whilst he appeared to be fine whilst the cameras were rolling, it was a different story once the programme had finished.
In an "aftermath" clip shared on the ITV daytime show's Facebook page, Phillip revealed he felt "alarmed" by the pain in his mouth.
He said: "My tongue is really, really on fire. It's spreading. This is quite alarming now. It is really, really painful now."
The silver fox was offered milk by co-host Holly Willoughby and fellow presenter Alison Hammond, but he refused as he was determined to break the record of lasting a whopping seven minutes without cooling his mouth.
He added: "I am actually not going to have anything, so that'll be it. My record will be forever, because I'm not going to have any pain relief what-so-ever."
In the end, Phillip managed to make it to an impressive eight minutes and 40 seconds before forcing himself to give in and drink some milk, for fear of being sick if he didn't calm his stomach.
Before the clip was shared on social media, Phillip had taken to Twitter to reveal he had come down with the shivers, despite claiming the heat wasn't that bad when he first put the chip in his mouth.
He wrote: "After eating the hottest chilli in the world, I'm now recovering Sitting in my dressing room with the shivers! All ok till it hit my stomach 8 minutes later!! I love a challenge pahaha .. but I'm not looking forward to tomorrow, (sic)"
Tagged in Holly Willoughby Phillip Schofield


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I've been making the rounds in our local 9th grade classrooms and talking books. The kids have loved these titles, begging to take them from me. Because of tricky card issues, it hasn't happened as much as I'd like yet, but you better believe I'm planning a way for all the kids interested -- even those without cards -- to take what they want to home.
Here's my powerpoint and my titles. Each has had a wide appeal, but top picks have been Love Drugged, Confessions of the Sullivan Sisters, and Half Brother. We start each presentation talking covers, too, so I can guide the kids through making selections.
Nov2010 booktalk
View more presentations from aramteens.
Most appealing cover for the teens? Not That Kind of Girl. The girls say audible that it looks like an awesome book.
Don't be afraid to not talk, too. As you'll see, a title here has nothing but the cover. I pull up the best trailer on youtube -- usually the publisher's own -- and play it. I emphasize using this sparingly and only with exceptionally enticing trailers.
I won't talk too much more about my methods of book talking because (drum roll) you can read it in the December 2010 issue of VOYA.


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R12/CE: Country And Home_Country NULL in HZ_Parties For Newly Created Bank Branches
Last updated on MAY 15, 2017
Applies to:Oracle Cash Management - Version 12.0.0 to 12.2.6 [Release 12 to 12.2]
Information in this document applies to any platform.
Country and Home_Country is NULL/Blank in HZ_Parties for newly created Bank Branches in R12 (Created by Module = CE or CUST_INTERFACE).
For upgraded Bank Branches (Created by Module=CE_BANK_UPGRADE) , Country and Home_Country is populated in hz_parties HP.
Need to use and perform validations on Bank Branch Country in reports/programs, but we are not able to because the Bank Branch COUNTRY is NULL when we use standard view CE_BANK_BRANCHES_V.
This view is fetching COUNTRY column from HZ_Parties table for Bank Branch Party record.
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Tuesday, 14 April 2015 01:37 PM
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries should cut its target daily production of oil by at least 5 percent, or approximately 1.5 million barrels, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh was quoted as saying on Tuesday.
Lower oil prices have caused pain for OPEC's less wealthy producers, including Iran, but top exporter Saudi Arabia has been the driving force behind a policy of refusing to cut output, currently at 30 million barrels per day, and instead defending market share.
"We believe this amount should be cut by at least 5 percent," Zanganeh was quoted as saying at a news conference on Tuesday by Shana, the Oil Ministry's official news site.
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