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Assessing Social Security Reform Alternatives: A Report on EBRI's December 4, 1996, Policy Forum
Editor's Note
This article, based on the December 4, 1996, EBRI-ERF Policy Forum, was written by EBRI Fellow Chris Conte. A former reporter with the Wall Street Journal, Conte has been an EBRI Fellow since 1995 and has written summaries of the EBRI-ERF Policy Forums and other articles on policy issues. Any views expressed in this article are those of the author and should not be ascribed to the officers, trustees, members, or other sponsors of EBRI, EBRI-ERF, or their staffs. Neither EBRI nor EBRI-ERF lobbies or takes positions on specific policy proposals. EBRI invites comment on all research.
The report of the 1994-1996 Advisory Council on Social Security settled one thing: we stand at a crossroads in deciding the future of the nation's retirement system.
But we are ill-prepared to choose which path to take. The options proposed by different factions of the divided council--large-scale government investment in the stock market, a new mandatory savings plan for individuals, or partial "privatization" of the current system--would lead us in profoundly different directions. Yet we understand only vaguely the impact each would have on our retirement security, social relationships, and economy.
On December 4, 1996, the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) hosted a policy forum to explore how we can better assess these and other Social Security reform alternatives. The session, partly an exploration of the intricacies of mathematical modeling and partly a preview of policy debates to come, gave some of the nation's leading authorities on Social Security a first look at SSASIM2, a state-of-the-art computer model that EBRI is developing to sort through the web of demographic, economic, psychological, social, and political factors that lie behind various proposals.
Their reaction could best be described as cautious enthusiasm: EBRI won praise for its bold effort but was reminded about the considerable uncertainties and guesswork involved in any project that is so complicated. Beyond that, many participants said, some of the biggest challenges will arise after the model is built, when the implications of its results will have to be interpreted for a public that has barely started to focus on the tough choices that lie ahead.
Still, it was widely agreed, the modeling exercise is an important start in what is sure to be a long journey. "When you begin to look at these issues, you discover right away that a great deal of systematic analysis is necessary to even describe them," noted William Beeman, vice president and director of economic studies for the Committee for Economic Development. "And even more sophisticated analysis is necessary to prescribe policies to deal with them."
The Context: Pitfalls and Possibilities
In the most fundamental sense, the issues surrounding Social Security today are as old as the program itself. "Here we are again debating the role of social insurance in a market economy, trying to define the appropriate balance between individual and collective responsibility, [and] what is fair and efficient at individual, family, and aggregate society levels," noted Robert Friedland, director of the National Academy on Aging.
These are difficult questions, but recent reform proposals pose analytical challenges far more daunting than the relatively modest, incremental changes that have been considered in the past. Instead of seeking a single change--an adjustment in the payroll tax rate or a rise in the normal retirement age, for instance--many current proposals would modify diverse parts of the system simultaneously and add entirely new elements, such as self-directed individual accounts, to Social Security's traditional, defined benefit structure. To complicate matters further, reform advocates say Social Security should be judged in part by criteria that were hardly considered in the past, including whether it provides beneficiaries a favorable "rate of return" on their tax payments and whether it fosters economic growth by encouraging savings.
"The complexity of the proposals undoubtedly outstrips our ability to carefully analyze them at this point, and that's the genesis of a model of this sort," said Marilyn Moon, a Social Security trustee and senior fellow at the Urban Institute.
Against this backdrop, EBRI President Dallas L. Salisbury argued that we can't continue to rely exclusively, as we have in the past, on either qualitative analysis or the work of the "extremely small" staff in the office of the actuary of the Social Security Administration. Noting that advocates of various reform alternatives employ tremendously different assumptions and methodologies, he described the Institute's modeling exercise as "an effort to create an analytic capability that is able to do quantitative, apples-to-apples comparisons across proposals."
While joining others in welcoming the undertaking, Moon added a note of caution, pointing out that there are pitfalls as well as possibilities in modeling. It's often difficult to predict, she noted, whether trends from the past will continue into the future; can we assume, for instance, that women will continue to outlive men as they have in the past, even though recent experience suggests this may no longer be true? Moreover, she noted, some policies are particularly susceptible to modification after they are adopted, rendering earlier assumptions moot. If people are given ownership of their own Social Security accounts, she argued, they inevitably will seek to use those funds for activities other than retirement; what confidence can we have, then, about predictions concerning how many assets they will carry into the later years under such a reform? In other cases, totally unexpected factors can neutralize the impact of variables we know and understand.
"This is an interesting and important exercise but is an exercise," Moon said. "We all know, those of us who engage in this, that we're going to be wrong. We just don't know how we're going to be wrong."
Other participants pointed out that models can be helpful even if they can't tell us with certainty what will happen under different circumstances. Beeman, for instance, argued that they help force us to think more systematically. "There is a great deal of very loose thinking" about Social Security right now, he said, pointing out, for instance, that some reform advocates completely ignore the potentially sizable transition costs their proposals would entail.
Martin Holmer, who is president of Policy Simulation Group, EBRI's contractor in developing the Social Security simulation model, suggested that one of the greatest values of models can be to show us not what the future will bring but rather where the greatest risk of unanticipated or unwanted outcomes lies.
Holmer gave conference participants a "look under the hood" at how the EBRI model works. It starts with the same demographic and economic assumptions used by the Social Security Administration but adds some variables, such as return on equity, that haven't traditionally been considered relevant. It also analyzes some issues, such as the likely return on individual investment accounts, that are beyond the scope of the current program.
Most significantly, the EBRI model employs "stochastic," or "Monte Carlo," techniques, which enable analysts to develop not a single projection--or, in the case of the Social Security Administration, "low," "high" and "intermediate" projections--but rather a whole range of possible outcomes. Using probability theory, the model then shows the chances of various outcomes actually occurring. This is an improvement over traditional methods, most participants agreed, because it shows the odds that things will turn out worse, or better, than projected. With that information, policymakers can design reforms that "hedge" against the biggest risks, Holmer said.
The Mortality Debate
One example of the uncertainty surrounding the modeling process is the assumption we must make concerning the mortality rate. The Social Security Administration assumes that mortality will decline at a far slower rate in the future than it did during the 20th century. But this view is controversial, noted Jack VanDerhei, associate professor at Temple University and research director for EBRI's Fellows Program. While the intermediate projection by the Social Security actuaries assumes that the number of people over age 85 will rise to 14.6 million in 2050 from 3.3 million in 1994, the Census Bureau puts that figure considerably higher, at 18.2 million. Running the Census Bureau figures through SSASIM2 suggests that Social Security's actuarial deficit will rise to 7.05 percent of taxable payroll in 2070, compared with the 5.52 percent projected by the Social Security Administration.
James Smith, senior economist at the RAND Corp., said even the Census Bureau figures underestimate the probable decline in mortality. He said a reasonable forecast would be that the number of people over age 85 could total 21 million by 2050 and that some "reputable scientists" believe it could reach as high as 50 million, more than triple the Social Security Administration's estimate. Moreover, Smith said official estimates fail to account for the fact that higher-income people tend to live longer than low-income people, thus adding disproportionately to benefit costs. That factor alone could drive costs 10 percent above official projections, he argued.
Stephen Goss, deputy chief actuary for the Social Security Administration, defended the agency's mortality assumptions. Not long ago, he said, a technical panel found that if Social Security were to change its mortality assumptions, it would have to adjust them for people of all ages, not just for old people. But a lower death rate among young people would mean there will be more workers than expected paying payroll taxes, thus negating much of the adverse financial consequences of larger population of senior citizens. Moreover, according to Goss, the same panel found that the government had underestimated future fertility rates, neutralizing the effect of changed mortality figures entirely.
To hedge against the possibility of larger-than-anticipated gains in life expectancy, Holmer noted, the government of Switzerland has been exploring the idea of indexing benefits to age expectancy for different cohorts of the population. A less precise variation of this strategy, of course, would be simply to increase the normal age of retirement for Social Security purposes. Robert Myers, who spent 23 years as chief actuary for the Social Security Commission, recommended just that. Raising the retirement age to 70 by the year 2037 shouldn't even be considered a cut in benefits, he argued, since by then a person who retires at that age will have the same life expectancy as someone who retires at 65 today.
Predicting Rates of Return
If Social Security actuaries have trouble projecting long-term mortality trends, which they have studied since the program's inception in 1935, how much harder would it be to estimate what returns the system could expect by allowing equity investment?
All three factions of the advisory council assume that the historic advantage of equities over bonds will continue in the future (in recent decades, the yield on equities has averaged 7 percent more than inflation, while Treasury bonds have paid only 2.3 percent more). But Robert Shapiro, founder and vice president of the Progressive Policy Institute, warned that projecting future investment returns, for markets as a whole and especially for individual investors compared with other individual investors, will be very hazardous. "I question our ability to sensibly model behavior of financial asset and debt markets over time," he said.
For individual accounts, in particular, how individuals allocate their assets among different types of assets will be a crucial variable. On this point, at least, EBRI has a growing base of information on which to build the model. Salisbury noted that EBRI's own defined contribution project now has data on how one million individual investors allocate assets in their retirement accounts, and that database eventually will grow to 10 million.
When it comes to asset allocation, the stakes, both for model-designers and investors, are very high. VanDerhei produced figures from the simulation showing that a "life cycle" approach to investing, in which a person puts his or her investments initially in equities and then gradually switches to bonds over time will produce substantially better results than maintaining a consistent allocation over an entire lifetime. But even in the second case, where the hypothetical worker puts 40 percent of his assets in equities, the pay-off would be higher than what would occur if the current Social Security structure were maintained and taxes were raised to cover rising benefit costs or if benefits were cut to fit the existing tax structure.
Significantly, the stochastic model also showed that returns under the privatization scheme would vary far more than under either of the "nonstructural" reforms. For critics of privatization, that was a crucial observation. "How about all the people who aren't going to get average returns, and may even lose?" asked Robert Ball, former Commissioner of Social Security under Presidents Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon and a critic of privatization. "I think we need to look at the range of possible outcomes from these investments--particularly for low-income people--and worry about whether they're tolerable."
Girard Miller, president and chief executive officer of ICMA Retirement Corp., echoed that concern and added another: Will the Social Security "safety net" have to be extended to people who happen to retire during a bear market and hence have to cash in or annuitize their savings when their value is low? The possibility of such "cohort-specific" market losses concerns a number of baby boomers, in particular. Some analysts believe at least part of the run-up in stock prices in recent years is driven by the baby boom generation's growing demand for equity investments to help finance retirement. If so, some worry that their retirement, and the resulting sell-off of their stock portfolios, could bring a long bear market.
"It's been one of my constant worries that when I come to retire and sell my 401(k) plan, I'm not sure who I'm going to be selling it to," said William Cheney, chief economist for John Hancock Mutual Life Insurance Co.
Macroeconomic Effects
Privatization advocates believe Cheney's fears won't be realized. If workers are encouraged, or compelled, to save more, net investment would rise. If so, demand for the baby boomers' portfolios could be strong despite the relatively smaller number of buyers. And, more importantly, increased savings would lead to higher productivity and faster economic growth, benefiting society as a whole, they argue.
That appears to be the premise behind a reform plan presented by the National Taxpayers Union. It would gradually phase out the existing Social Security system and replace it with a "national thrift plan." Taxpayers would be required to set aside an amount equal to 5 percent of their wages in "personal thrift accounts." The government would match contributions of low-wage workers, and guarantee a household income equal to the poverty level for all Americans over age 62.
While the plan would require sacrifices from current retirees by expanding taxation of benefits and reducing cost-of-living increases, Howe presented simulations that suggest its overall economic impact could be quite positive. Net national savings would quintuple to 5.9 percent of Gross Domestic Product by 2065, raising productivity and average wages by as much as 26 percent, he said. And he suggested that such gains would enable workers at all income levels to receive much greater benefits than under the current system--all without new government debt, new taxes, or unrelated reductions in government spending.
"The savings-productivity-real wages link is absolutely essential," argued Neil Howe, a consultant who presented the taxpayer group's plan. "It's this link that keeps Social Security reform from turning into something close to a zero-sum game."
Eugene Steuerle, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute, was skeptical about the economic-growth argument. Switching Social Security reserves out of government securities and into the stock market could unsettle the bond market and drive up interest rates, especially if other governments were to follow the federal government's lead, he said. More fundamentally, the retirement of the baby boom generation will result in a drop in "human capital" equal to a 20 percent or 25 percent rise in unemployment. Steuerle argued that it's hard to imagine any level of capital investment that would produce enough economic growth to boost incomes high enough to offset that dampening effect on the economy.
"I don't think you can build enough steel mills to solve this problem," he said.
Even the assumption that the reform proposals would increase savings needs to be tested, Steuerle added. If the government creates incentives or requires more savings through Social Security, he suggested, people might simply reduce their savings outside the system by a comparable amount. As a result, reform proposals aimed at increasing savings could wind up having "very little effect."
While voicing doubts that Social Security reforms will have much impact on economic growth, Steuerle joined most forum participants in urging EBRI to press ahead in its study of the issue. The RAND Corporation's James Smith, for instance, argued that making no change in the program could have economic consequences just as significant as various reform proposals. According to Smith, the tax rate to pay for Social Security, Medicare, and other age-related transfers could climb to 40 percent during the next century if current trends continue. That would lead to tremendous pressures to cut other categories of government spending and could even choke off economic growth altogether.
"We have to be talking about encouraging savings and growth," Smith said. He proposed imposing a progressive consumption tax.
Robert Myers, however, dissented from the general sentiment that reform proposals should be judged partly by what effect they would have on the overall economy. "Social Security does not have the purpose of solving all national problems," he said, adding that economic growth, in particular, is "not Social Security's responsibility." The real purpose of the retirement system, he said, is to ensure all retirees a basic "floor of protection."
The importance of that floor was underscored by Robert Friedland, who noted that 61 percent of today's elderly--72 percent of those over age 75--derive at least one-half of their income from Social Security. Similarly, James Smith noted that one-half of all retirees over age 70 have financial assets totaling $10,500 or less. For those aged 51-61, the situation isn't much better; the median level of financial assets for that group is $17,300.
Smith also argued that the current Social Security system isn't as progressive as it appears. Conventional figures on life expectancy suggest that the typical minimum wage recipient will receive lifetime benefits equal to a 4 percent rate of return on his Social Security tax payments, compared with a 1.5 percent return for somebody whose wages equal the maximum subject to Social Security taxes. But if the figures are adjusted to reflect the shorter life expectancy for low-income people, the minimum wage recipient will realize a rate of return of only 3.1 percent, just slightly ahead of the 2.4 percent return for a wealthier person collecting the maximum in benefits, Smith said.
The Perception Gap
While trying to untangle all of these analytical questions might seem to be challenging enough, several forum participants suggested that EBRI's job won't be finished even after its model is built.
"Ultimately, what we want to do is try to find ways to understand the implications of various options and then to be able to explain them to people in ways that are meaningful," Moon said. "There's a translation that going to need to be made here."
She argued that many Americans don't fully understand concepts like risk, the trade-off between risk and return, and second-order effects, all of which are crucial to the analysis of policy alternatives. "My caution today would be that we not be too charmed with the elegance of the models and we opt for utilitarian approaches whenever possible."
Susan Dentzer, chief economics correspondent for U.S. News and World Report, underscored Moon's warning. "There is a very large potential perception gap between many of us who work on these very abstruse levels.and the way these things are likely to be perceived by the public," she said.
In particular, Dentzer questioned whether many Americans understand financial matters sufficiently to invest their own Social Security funds. She also suggested that the "linchpin" of privatization, the assumption that an "appropriate" annuities market will develop and be capable not only of having reliable returns but of securing investments once people retire, is far from assured. "Just hearing from financial market participants that it will take care of itself, frankly, does not increase my confidence that this is a salable plan," she said.
Even some analytically straightforward Social Security reforms won't be easy to sell, Dentzer added. Raising the retirement age, for instance, will be a "very, very difficult political proposition indeed," she said. And she warned that there is a greater potential for "perceived social injustice for different classes of individuals" in various reform proposals than experts recognize.
A number of forum participants urged EBRI to use its model not just to assess reform alternatives but also to develop a better understanding of the current Social Security system. Supporters of the existing system, for instance, voiced concerns that the public misunderstands the system's condition, believing it is in worse shape than it really is. Myers dismissed as "myth" the belief that Social Security will go bankrupt sometime around 2030; in fact, he said, the system's low-cost estimate shows it will stay "in great shape" for the agency's entire 75-year forecasting period. And members of the advisory council's most traditionally minded faction point out that, even under the agency's intermediate assumptions, Social Security still could cover three-fourths of its benefit costs after the year 2030 without any changes in policy.
Nevertheless, "no one has confidence, it seems, that [Social Security] will be there," Friedland noted. "I'm not sure that they really believe it.Most people have not thought much about Social Security.What little they know seems to what they've heard, and what they've heard comes from television and the newspaper and what they've heard is that the program is going broke."
Gary Burtless, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, agreed that the press shares blame for the public's gloom. Seven years ago, he said, he co-authored the book, Can America Afford to Grow Old? Even though he and his colleagues concluded that the answer was yes, most press accounts and book reviews said the answer was no. "I think that's a congenital problem among journalists, who may reason they will never see their name in print if they write a story containing either good news or at least ambiguous news," Burtless said.
In any event, the public is eager to be educated and is less susceptible to partisan efforts to exploit fears about Social Security or other entitlements than it has been in the past, according to political analyst and commentator Charles Cook. "They understand that we have some very serious problems with our entitlement programs," he said. In a review of the 1996 elections, Cook argued that the Democrats succeeded for a time in charging that Republicans would cut too deeply into Medicare and other entitlement programs, but the issue "evaporated" toward the end of the campaign. In the final analysis, he said, Democratic claims didn't change the outcome of any congressional race in the country. And, he said, people will require proof before they allow themselves to be frightened by such claims in the future.
Cook said he didn't believe the political climate was particularly favorable for entitlement reform, though. He predicted that many Republicans, feeling burned by the Democrats' charges that they would wreck Medicare, probably will sit back and force President Clinton and his party to take the lead on the issue. Many congressional Democrats, meanwhile, don't feel a great sense of urgency about the matter.
When forced to act, many lawmakers will jump at easy solutions like making technical adjustments in the Consumer Price Index that would slow cost-of-living increases in Social Security benefits, rather than enacting more fundamental reforms, Cook predicted. Doing something that appears painless, or that pins the blame on somebody else "would be very, very, very appealing to most political people," he said.
Reform Alternatives
Participants in the EBRI forum weren't offering many painless solutions, though. During the final phase of their discussion, they examined specific reform proposals, in the process demonstrating that while policy prescriptions can be significantly influenced by the results of economic modeling, they also are shaped significantly by views and judgments that transcend science.
Some described the issue as essentially a moral one. Myers, who argued forcefully that Social Security isn't "broke" and shouldn't be "thrown away," recommended raising the normal retirement age for Social Security to 70 by the year 2037 and increasing the payroll tax by 1.2 percentage points for both employers and employees between 2015 and 2035. He suggested normal economic growth should increase incomes enough that people easily could afford such a tax hike. "But even if they didn't rise, do Americans have to be so unaltruistic" as to oppose such an increase, he asked. "Do they have to be so concerned that they always have rising incomes and have five cars in every garage and three television sets in every room?"
Many others based their reform plans on a blend of economic analysis, value judgments, and realpolitik. Robert Ball, for instance, who was part of the advisory council group that recommended direct government investment in the stock market, seemed to defend the proposal more on political than financial grounds.
"We have to do something about the perception of younger people that they're not getting a good deal under Social Security," Ball said. "For the security of the system, the people who are going to vote in the future need to understand and support it and believe they are being treated fairly."
Most of the projected Social Security shortfall, Ball argued, could be covered in "quite traditional ways" without changing the system's basic structure. His "maintain benefits" group on the advisory council recommended, as first steps, extending Social Security coverage to state and local government employees, tighter taxation of Social Security benefits, modifying Social Security cost-of-living to reflect changes in the Consumer Price Index, and other changes.
But Ball acknowledged that all of these changes together won't get the system completely past the financial challenges posed by the retirement of the baby boom generation. Ball's group said the payroll tax would have to be increased around 2050. It also recommended taking a serious look at the idea of investing up to 40 percent of Social Security tax collections in the stock market.
Ball said the government should do the investing, rather than individuals, so as to maintain support for Social Security as a social insurance program. Allowing people to set up individual accounts in Social Security would sew the "seeds of destruction" for the system as a whole, he argued because "average and above-average investors," able to earn higher returns on their self-directed accounts than on the traditional part of the Social Security program, would demand that more and more funds be switched from the regular benefit program into individualized accounts.
Lawrence Thompson, principle deputy commissioner of the Social Security Administration, presented the case for so-called "individualized accounts" with a different combination of economic thinking and practical politics. His starting point was that some combination of higher taxes and reduced benefits is inevitable. "If people are going to live longer, either they're going to have lower benefits in retirement, they're going to put more away each year while they're working, or they're going to have to work longer," he said.
The individualized accounts proposal was developed by Edward Gramlich, dean of the school of public policy at the University of Michigan and chairman of the advisory council. It essentially would "split the difference" between benefit cuts and tax increases, Thompson said, by trimming benefits to a level that could be supported by the current payroll tax and requiring individuals to pay an additional 1.6 percent of payroll into individual accounts. While individuals would have some control over how funds in their accounts would be invested, the choices would be limited, the money would be managed centrally, and all benefits would have to be paid out in the form of indexed annuities.
Thompson said the public wants greater individualization. But he said limiting investment choices would help minimize the risk that workers would reach retirement with insufficient savings. That's especially important, Thompson argued, because risk has increased in the private sector as many employers have come to favor defined contribution plans over defined benefit plans. "If the private sector is getting riskier, we should be very cautious about transferring a whole lot more risk onto individual workers by significantly shrinking the public system," he said.
While Ball and Thompson were concerned about maintaining a strong role for the government in the retirement security realm, Ann Combs, a principal with William M. Mercer, Inc., and a member of the advisory council, made it clear that a desire for less government underlies privatization proposals. Combs was part of the advisory council faction that developed the so-called "personal savings account" proposal. It would allow workers effectively to put 5 percent of their payroll earnings into the personal accounts, which they would be free to manage and wouldn't have to annuitize when they retire. The remaining 7.4 percentage points of the payroll tax would be used to pay a flat benefit to all retirees, initially $410 per month. In addition, a tax equal to 1.52 percent of payroll would be imposed to help finance the transition from the current system to the new one.
Combs said the plan would guarantee retirees an income equal to two-thirds of the poverty level and would eliminate some of the complexity of the current benefit formula while creating a "very direct link" between taxes paid and benefits received. The personal savings accounts, meanwhile, would lead to increased financial literacy and possibly would encourage more saving, she said.
Advocates of this approach contend that the individual account plan would leave too much control in the hands of government. The "maintain benefits" proposal of Ball and others would be even worse in this regard, they argue. Although Ball said that government investment should be entirely passive in its approach to equities investment, Combs questioned whether politicians could resist the opportunity to let social objectives shape public investment strategy. "In the end, it's politicians who make the decisions and can rewrite the rules," she argued, "and I believe the temptation for social investing or targeted investing.will be too great."
And while Ball and Thompson warned against imposing more financial risk on retirees, Combs argued that the new financial market risk on workers and retirees would be no greater than the "political risk" that they currently face--namely that the government will change the rules of the game by raising taxes or changing benefits.
What's Next?
Given the sharp divisions among experts, the uncertainty about what impact various reform proposals would have, and the fact that Social Security's projected insolvency is still some years off, EBRI should have plenty of time to complete development of its Social Security model. In the meantime, there's a good chance we'll see more experimentation and that may produce useful data the Institute can plug into its equations.
Stanford Ross, a senior partner in the law firm of Arnold and Porter and a former Social Security commissioner, proposed a cautious, pragmatic approach to reform that illustrates how we might evolve gradually toward a new Social Security arrangement.
The program should be brought into financial balance, Ross said, partly to calm the "sky is falling rhetoric" about the system. He also agreed that there should be a "personal account element" because younger people are "less accepting of government paternalism." But rather than setting out to solve the problem all at once, he said, we should first adopt many of the incremental changes that analysts like Ball have proposed and then let people voluntarily set aside additional funds in individual accounts.
"One advantage of a voluntary approach is it would give you valuable experience about how the people who would be affected really feel about putting away more for their retirement as opposed to consumption or other purposes," he argued. "You would get valuable information."
Ross's recommendations, less comprehensive than other proposals, would leave many questions about the future of Social Security unanswered. But in a sense, they summed up the current state of policy analysis and policy making--including both our lack of information and the need for greater understanding between the public and experts. Without these, consensus may remain elusive.
"Any changes are going to have to be broadly bipartisan and based on a great deal of public education," Ross said. "Different people make different calls on the economics and the politics and how they think people react to things."


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Plenty of Nothing
Here's what liberals will get instead of a public option: nothing. They should take it.
Click here for a guide to following the health care reform story online.
Independent Sen. Joe Lieberman's threat to filibuster a health-reform bill that includes a Medicare buy-in, combined with the firm opposition of swing-voting Republican Olympia Snowe and growing dissatisfaction from conservative Democrat Ben Nelson, means that Sen. Harry Reid's public-option compromise is dead before the Congressional Budget Office even has a chance to calculate its cost. The Medicare buy-in was, truth to tell, a more liberal idea than the public option, and if the initial willingness of Lieberman and Nelson to consider it seemed too good to be true, well, that's because it was. (That the Gore-Lieberman ticket endorsed the idea in 2000 was never likely to weigh heavily on Lieberman.)
What, then, will liberals get instead? Uh, nothing.
Oh, they may get thrown a scrap here or there. No one's paid much attention to Reid's pledge to Sen. Jay Rockefeller, D.-W.Va., to fund the Children's Health Insurance Program through 2015. The Congressional Budget Office will probably score this as a money-saver because the government-funded CHIP would likely be cheaper than the alternative, which is government subsidies to private-sector policies sold on the new health-insurance exchanges. Rockefeller didn't push the measure as a money-saver; he pushed it because he thought it would provide better health care to kids. That government-funded health care turns out to be both cheaper and better than the private-sector marketplace created under Obamacare is a distraction that liberal supporters of health reform have struggled not to dwell on. But socialism for children is an easier sell than socialism for grown-ups, so there's a decent chance this isolated concession will stand.
Reid also massaged Rockefeller by bumping up the bill's required "medical loss ratio" (i.e., the percentage of premium dollars an insurance company is required to spend on health care) to 90 percent. That will probably float back down to 85 percent, which is what the House bill requires—or perhaps to 80 percent for family policies and 75 percent for individual policies, which is what the bill says now. That would still be pretty good; state-level requirements are typically a dismal 55 to 65 percent. Since the big health insurers claim (unpersuasively) that their current medical loss ratio is 87 percent, they probably won't have an easy time persuading Congress that 80 percent or 85 percent would be a burden.
Perhaps liberals could still get the consolation prize of two national nonprofit plans to be managed by the federal government's Office of Personnel Management. Increasingly, though, the OPM option calls to mind the old joke, "Second prize, two weeks in Philadelphia!" Yale political scientist (and public-option creator) Jacob Hacker recently pointed out that in addition to the problem of an unwieldy regulatory structure (OPM is Uncle Sam's human resources office for federal workers, not a social-services agency), the OPM option's likeliest participant is Blue Cross/Blue Shield, which already has a "massive market share, and [the Blues] are generally among the most costly plans." For liberals, the OPM option could easily end up being worse than nothing.
The task before liberal Democrats, then, is to achieve a Zen-like calm about the empty space where the public option used to be.
I take no pleasure in noting this. I am not one of those Washington commentators inclined to judge harshly anyone caught out of step with political reality, especially when the dissenter happens to be right. A public option, or expansion of the already-public Medicare, really is health reform's single plausible answer to the question, "How do we rein in medical spending?" Without it, government can put the brakes on its own spending, but it can't curb spending by health providers. (See "Forget the Cost Curve.") Politically, I'm unpersuaded by those who say a public option will be easier to get after health reform is passed—in much the same way that, say, tougher civil rights laws became achievable only after passage of the loophole-ridden 1957 Civil Rights Act. Health reform is different, because it will put half a trillion dollars into the hands of a lobby (health insurers) that's already powerful enough to knock the public option out of the bill. A wealthier health-insurance industry will be a more powerful opponent, not a less powerful one.
The Senate could probably pass health reform with a public option if Reid were willing to ram it through via reconciliation, an option I continue to judge doable. (It's little-noted that Vice President Joe Biden is perfectly free to ignore any adverse rulings from the Senate parliamentarian—as Vice President Hubert Humphrey did routinely during the 1960s.) Reid got Nelson to support bringing health reform to the Senate floor in part by threatening to use reconciliation. But the chance that Reid would make good on that threat is remote, especially if he could get 60 votes for a health reform bill lacking a public option, as still seems probable.
I don't believe that 60th vote will ever be Lieberman. His actions increasingly demonstrate that he is grasping for a reason, any reason, to oppose the bill, probably to appease the insurance industry, which is headquartered in his home state of Connecticut. (To dispel this idea, Lieberman recently sponsored an amendment to eliminate health insurers' antitrust exemption. But while insurers oppose repeal, Los Angeles Times business columnist Michael Hiltzik recently argued that the matter doesn't worry them terribly, because even after repeal, they would probably face few federal antitrust actions.) Carrie Budoff Brown reports in Politico that the White House wants Reid to jettison the Medicare buy-in (he's bound to sooner or later) to cut a deal with Lieberman. But the assumption that Lieberman would support a health reform bill that lacked a public option or a Medicare buy-in overlooks the fact that Lieberman opposed the Senate finance committee bill, which included neither.
Lieberman may be unreachable, but Snowe is not, and neither is her fellow Maine Republican, Sen. Susan Collins (who may prove helpful should a faint breeze knock over 93-year-old Sen. Robert Byrd, D.-W.Va.). Further compromises would probably have to be made, many of them unappetizing. But no matter how much Moveon.org fulminates and no matter how many meetings the Congressional Progressive Caucus demands, it just isn't plausible that liberals would walk away from a bill that extends health insurance to 31 million of the 45 million people who are currently uninsured. I doubt they'd walk away even if that number were reduced to 20 million (not that I recommend it). Health reform legislation will leave liberals plenty of work to do. But when has that failed to be true?
E-mail Timothy Noah at email@example.com.

subset: commoncrawl


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THE Garden State tax revolt is starting to bear fruit — and it's about time, too.
On Tuesday, voters nixed 315 of 537 school-district budgets, including many that sought tax hikes. That's a whopping 59 percent; usually, less than 30 percent fail. The state hasn't seen anything close to even 50 percent rejected since 1976.
It all started with anti-tax GOP crusader Chris Christie's defeat last fall of then-Gov. Jon Corzine in this Democratic-leaning state. Faced with an $11 billion cash shortfall, Christie quickly sliced state aid to schools by $820 million — and followed up with warnings that school boards should clamp down on costs, not just force hikes in property taxes and spend as usual.
It was a perfect test: If residents truly wanted standard, bloated school budgets, they'd have to ante up.
Christie went further, offering a bonus — greater state aid — to districts where teachers unions agreed to concessions. He urged voters to reject school budgets if the unions were intransigent.
The upshot: Only 20 districts or so won union pay freezes or givebacks; more than 80 percent sought property-tax hikes.
And the voters went with Christie in nearly 60 percent of districts.
Not only did they say "No way, Jose" to budgets, they also gave many school-board incumbents the boot, in an unusually heavy turnout for such a vote.
West Orange, a small town west of Newark in Essex County with about 44,000 residents (of which I'm one), tells the tale: Faced with a more than 60 percent drop in state aid — nearly $7 million — the school board prepared modest cuts. But personnel costs hog most of the budget, and teachers refused wage freezes. So the board went to the well yet again, seeking a 7.3 percent property-tax hike.
The $135 million budget — for 6,700 kids, that's $20,000 apiece, far above the national average — represented a 1.6 percent spending increase, despite the loss of state aid.
For years, proposed tax hikes have triggered much harrumphing and foot-stomping in town. Essex County residents' median property-tax bill, about $8,000, is the second-highest (as a percentage of income) in the nation — and West Orange often leads the county. But the complaints don't carry the day: No school budget has failed here in years.
So taxes soar like clockwork; mine nearly doubled in the past decade alone.
This year, it's different. Home values are down. Folks are out of work or facing pay cuts. Adam Kraemer, a plugged-in accountant who ran for school board, says foreclosures are skyrocketing.
Another $500 or $1,000 in property taxes, or more, would push many folks out of their homes — and further drive down housing values — all while teachers enjoy pre-arranged raises.
But would this pain bring the needed change? Essex is a liberal, pro-union bastion. At a school-budget presentation, almost every question concerned the "cuts." Mine — "What has been done to control personnel costs?" — was the exception; it got a telling answer: "I don't understand the question."
Kraemer assured me that this was a typical PTA, pro-teacher crowd. (Who else comes out to school-budget presentations after a hard day at work?) Many others across town felt as I do.
He was right. In the run-up to Tuesday's vote, e-mails raced back and forth. Blogs dedicated themselves to resistance. Last Sunday, budget foes staged a rally at Town Hall.
And on Election Day, what do you know? The budget tanked, 3,947-3,176.
Kraemer — who's failed to win in the past, even though he's clearly the smartest, most adult candidate — lost again this year. But in a four-way race for two seats, he came in third, beating an incumbent.
Alas, Tuesday's vote isn't the last word. Jersey's town councils — elected by taxpayers — review defeated school budgets but needn't cut them. With luck, though, they'll get the voters' message — and respect it.
In any case, West Orange — and 314 other districts — are surely off to a good start.
There's more: Christie now hopes to leverage the tax revolt further. He's calling for a 2.5 percent constitutional cap on property taxes, and stiff reforms to public-sector pensions, benefits and collective bargaining.
There's hope for New Jersey yet. firstname.lastname@example.com


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Every day, Texans lose money to scams and frauds. It happens in more ways than you can imagine. Decent, intelligent people are duped out of their life savings by smooth-talking, utterly unscrupulous crooks. These are people who will look you in the eye and lie.
You have been warned about mail fraud, telephone fraud, internet fraud and door-to-door fraud. But how will you know it when you see it? Whether they reach you by mail, by phone, by email or by talking to you in person, they will give themselves away if you know what to look for. No matter what the bait they offer you, underneath it is a hook. Don't get hooked by consumer fraud!
THEY contacted YOU. Think about it. If you look up a business and call to make an order, you know who is on the other end of the deal. With a con artist, all you know is who that person says he or she is. You are already at a huge disadvantage.
They dangle BAIT in front of you. It is almost always a large sum of money, like a prize or an easy loan, or a large income. It sounds so easy! But we all know that people don't give away large sums of money so easily, or pay large incomes for nothing. Only in daydreams.
They want your PERSONAL INFORMATION. Anytime someone tries to get your bank account number, Social Security Number, or other sensitive information, you should automatically be on red alert. Don't do it.
First, YOU have to pay THEM. Don't be blinded by the promise of a large sum of money in the future. If they are asking you to give them money first, back off. It is illegal for someone to require up-front payment before funding a loan or paying out a sweepstakes prize. And real employers don't generally ask new hires to shell out money.
You have to WIRE or AIRBORNE money instead of MAILING it. This is your last warning: if you are on the brink of wiring somebody money in order to get a prize or a loan, an inheritance or any other large sum of money, STOP! It's a scam, and they are trying to avoid the stiff penalties for mail fraud. You are about to be robbed.
By mail, by phone or face to face, con artists dangle baited hooks in front of honest people every day of the week. It usually begins with an unsolicited contact from a company, individual or organization you never heard of. You do not know who the caller really is. Real lotteries don't call you to say you've won. You don't get grants without applying for them. You don't get easy loans if you have bad credit. Real money is hard to get. It doesn't just come to you. But there are people who would like to take whatever money you have to lose. Don't get hooked!
Do you ever wonder, "How on earth did they fall for that?" Sad to say, many sensible, intelligent people find themselves asking, "Why did I do it?"
Learn how you can avoid falling for a con artist's schemes by reading, The Five Tricks of a Con Artist.
If you have been scammed, it's important you know how to properly report the scams and the steps to take to prevent being scammed again. Find valuable tips about both on our page, What to Do if You've been Scammed.
We are often contacted by frantic family members of victims of fraud, who are unable to convince the victim that the scam is not real. Phony lotteries and sweepstakes can be very persuasive to some people. Some people are particularly vulnerable to scams. Seniors may be lonely, trusting, and confused.
If you are having a hard time convincing someone to stop sending money to a scam artist, you can call this office at (800) 252-8011 for assistance. You may also wish to approach your family member's bank, where staff may be willing to alert you of withdrawals. In addition, law enforcement officers may be willing to visit the victim; the uniform can be persuasive. A law-abiding victim can sometimes be swayed by the knowledge that it is illegal to receive the proceeds of a foreign lottery.
Victims are often ashamed of having been duped. It can help them to understand that the con artists who perpetrate the scams are highly skilled and sophisticated. Intelligent, educated people can be fooled.
This problem is as old as the expression "Fly by Night," which describes the crook who sells you a raw deal and leaves town before you realize you've been had. Today, thanks to the Internet, the disappearing business is more common than ever.
Every single day, consumers contact the Office of the Attorney General saying, "They don't answer their phone, return my messages, or respond to my emails. They said they would give me a refund if I changed my mind, but I can't get hold of them." Or, "They said I had 10 days to cancel, but I have called and emailed every day for two weeks without being able to reach them!"
Businesses in Texas are required to register with the Secretary of State or the local county clerk's office. You can contact the SOS to find out the name of the registered agent for the business. Unfortunately, crooks tend not to bother reporting themselves to the proper authorities. However, if you have lost money to a business that you can no longer reach, you can try to find contact information from the Secretary of State, or the county clerk where the business is located.
But don't wait for this to happen. Instead, before you do business, make sure the company is real. It should have a real address and real people registered to do business in this state or another state or country that registers real businesses. Seek independent confirmation that the business is what it claims to be.
Our best defense is education. Even if you have been scammed already, it's not too late to arm yourself against its happening again. When people know how to spot a scam, they can stop short before they lose their money. We want you to keep your hard earned money.


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Featured News - Current News - Archived News - News Categories
The Buffalo Olmsted Parks Conservancy and State Sen. Mark Grisanti, chairman of the environmental conservation committee, are celebrating steps toward improving water quality in Delaware Park. The Buffalo Olmsted Park Conservancy has announced the installation of a new fountain in Hoyt Lake in Delaware Park. This is a re-creation of the historic fountain installed in 1895, when the lake was known as "The Gala Waters." The new fountain park will also help address community concerns regarding the water conditions in Delaware Park's historic lake.
The fountain is part of a larger effort to improve water quality conditions in Hoyt Lake and the entire Scajaquada Creek watershed. It was made possible by a grant from state Department of Environmental Conservation, initiated by Grisanti. The $100,000 grant attracted an additional $90,000 in matching funds from the Army Corps of Engineers to conduct a study of the sediment in the lake to help with future lake restoration efforts. The fountain will have a central jet that will shoot 50 feet in the air surrounded by lower water jets that reach 25 feet.
"This is a great day in Western New York, and especially here at Hoyt Lake. I want to thank everyone at the Buffalo Olmsted Parks Conservancy for their hard work. We have developed a great partnership in keeping our parks beautiful. This is just the beginning of the many more projects to come," Grisanti said.
The conservancy is partnering with Riverkeeper, which is leading many other stakeholders, such as the City of Buffalo, Erie County, DEC, Fish and Wildlife and the Water and Sewer Authorities in efforts to improve the water quality in Scajaquada Creek.


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MEA Document Provides Interesting Details
Dr. Ryan S. Olson discusses the MEA
About this audio file: On Jan. 17, 2008, Dr. Ryan S. Olson, director of education policy for the Mackinac Center, was a guest on "The Greg Marshall Show" on WMKT in Traverse City. Olson discussed the 2006 Michigan Education Association's LM-2, which the school employees union is required to file with the federal Department of Labor. Olson's investigation of the document found that while the number of MEA members in Michigan is going down, the union is collecting more revenues but spending less time representing its members compared to 2005. The interview is 13 minutes and 41 seconds.
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Longtime middle school coach Rudisill passes away
A longtime coach in the area died earlier this week.
Ronald "Rudy" Rudisill passed away on Tuesday at the age of 63.
Rudisill taught and coached at Catawba and Holbrook middle schools for 11 years, but perhaps his greatest impact was felt at Tuttle Middle School, where he taught for 20 years.
To read more of this story, pick up the Friday edition of Catawba County's community newspaper, The Observer News Enterprise, at newsstands throughout the county.


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Received via email at 1:51 PM EDT for publication. ~ Dinar Chronicles
Per HSBC, all structural changes from the old to the new system are complete and humming at light speed.
We are living in the new fiscal paradigm right now, which really means we're already experiencing life in fifth dimension.
Did you pack appropriately?
If so, you have nothing but your soul on hand. Everything else's you've either given away or lost in the transformational fire of era change.
That's the point. More is less in this era. Whereas we all were raised on more is more. That's just not the case anymore.
Negative comments and insults should be deemed as 3D baggage, weighing those who offer them down and thus they will remain behind while we, the loyal servants of Christ, go forward at to bless, prosper and heal the soul of the world.
God or not God is how everything and everyone should be evaluated from here on out. Discerning the highest vibration of service as always closer to the Will of God and thus winning the day.
Bar none.
Credit systems were down this morning to make SWIFT to CIPS final code changes unified, but we expect the IT transition to complete and come back up before 6pm EDT tonight -- along with the IMF's new rate sheet on their website before midnight EDT.
How wicked cool is that Boston Strong!
New Zealand will open the global markets at 10am NZST per normal, but Dubai will open the global banking day in the Middle East at the same time. That's new.
All other country's will adjust to their schedule which honestly is also 6am CST Beijing which is why the whole GCR operation was called "Eternal Sunshine."
Meaning on July 10, 2017--the official front of the house release for the RV went international.
Because on July 9, 2017--all final implementation protocols were put into place, and the official back of the house release for the RV went international.
The Iranian Rial has even RV'd. It is slightly higher than the IQD on screen.
Iran specifically asked to wait until the very last second so the western world, Saudi Arabia and IsIs would profit less from their transition to smaller denominations.
True story.
God kept His promise made long ago to all who would be loyal to His word, that one day we the meek would inherit the earth if we could remain righteous till the bitter and bloody end.
Well today is that day. And here we are.
Pure evil has been defeated (ISIS, Cabal, Dark Nobility, Dracos, Annunaki) and the vaults of Christ will now open for all believers who courageously walked through hell's fire and laughed at the flames even while their flesh smoldered.
For as Christ himself once said, "No great social or economic change should be attempted suddenly. Time is essential to all types of human rights adjustment -- physical, social or economic..." we waited on God.
It's just that simple when you boil it down. And that's why we shall now receive the Messiah's blessing and wealth to heal the soul of the world and disburse His mercy.
We surrendered to His process and allowed the chaotic machinations of man to slide right on by as they were but illusions.
We were chosen because we chose God above all other forms of energy.
And we remained loyal to serving His divine covenant that He alone wrote in the Golden book of Fate.
So when people ask why and how you are so wealthy, the correct answer is "because I surrender my entire life to God and this what He returned for the loyalty of my soul."
God is with us.
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Received via email at 1:51 PM EDT for publication. ~ Dinar Chronicles
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Just recieved my copy of Wayne Jarret Chip in on Thompson Sound LP from Ernie B for a mere $3.99...about £2.
Must say this proably has to be one of my best scoops due to the fact i'd happily part with a much larger some of money for the same pressing.
Awesome scientist mix of the roots radics - both elements in their peak, and a really good pressing that actually does justice to the music.
If you get chance to pick this one up for yourself, DO IT!
Essential for the early 80s collection.
Anyone else picked up some good value deals lately?


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Andre Roussimoff: A Giant in his Field
By: Legacy Staff
3 years ago
Andre Rene Roussimoff, who was born on May 19th 1946, was a giant in his field.
Born in France in 1946, young Roussimoff began life simply – and small – enough. But by his 12th birthday, he had grown to 6-feet-3-inches and 240 pounds (too big for the bus, he was driven to school by his neighbor, playwright Samuel Beckett). As an adult, he would reach 7-feet-4-inches, 500+ pounds and be known as the "Eighth Wonder of the World." Most of us know him simply as Andre the Giant.
Andre the Giant (Wikimedia Commons / John McKeon)
Andre the Giant was a star of professional wrestling in its 1980s heyday, alongside big names like Randy "Macho Man" Savage, Jesse "The Body" Ventura, Bret Hart and Jake "The Snake" Roberts.
Andre the Giant takes on King Kong Bundy (Wikimedia Commons / Ethan)
In 1988 he won the WWF Championship, defeating another larger-than-life character, Hulk Hogan.
Around that same time, Andre gained a whole new group of fans who loved him for a very different reason… his role as good-hearted strongman Fezzik in 1987 film The Princess Bride. Although a thug by profession, gentle giant Fezzik preferred helping to hurting. And he liked to share a rhyme or two with friends.
Andre the Giant was only 46 when he died Jan. 27, 1993, of congestive heart failure, a complication of the acromegaly that gave him his great size. His wrestling colleagues honored Andre later that year by making him the first inductee in the WWF Hall of Fame. Five years later, friend and Princess Bride co-star Billy Crystal paid homage to him with the movie My Giant, and his story was told in the 2007 film Andre: Heart of the Giant.
As for his fans, we too remember his heart as the biggest thing about him.
Written by Linnea Crowther and Jessica Campbell


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Even mild hearing loss can affect a child's ability to speak and understand language, as well as impact behavioral development. Nemours' audiologists use state-of-the-art technology and innovative testing techniques to assess your child's hearing sensitivity. We can evaluate and treat hearing at any age, beginning at birth.
Hearing loss in children occurs in an estimated three out of every 1,000 babies born in the United States each year. At Nemours, we are dedicated to finding the best solutions to address each child's hearing impairment, and we're committed to counseling and educating families to be advocates for their children in the community.
We have board certified audiologists who are licensed with specialized experience in pediatric audiology.
Our audiologists help diagnose and develop treatment plans for children with hearing disorders such as:
- hearing loss
- (central) auditory processing disorder (APD)
- auditory neuropathy spectrum disorder (ANSD)
- balance (vestibular) and dizziness disorders
At Nemours/Alfred I. duPont Hospital for Children and a number of Nemours Children's Clinic locations in the Delaware Valley and North and Central Florida, we are also able to provide children with hearing impairment special services.
These services include:
- prescriptions for hearing aids and other assistive and/or amplification devices as well as instruction on the use, care and maintenance of these devices
- cochlear implant, programming and therapy
- counseling for families regarding adjustment to hearing aids and cochlear implants
- specialized programs for children diagnosed with central auditory processing disorder or auditory neuropathy spectrum disorder
- working with a child's school and teacher to ensure proper classroom equipment and modifications are in place
We look forward to forming close relationships with our patients and monitoring their progress over time.


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Not your mother's rhythm method
Natural Family Planning has come a long a way, baby. Not only does it meet the church's moral standard for spacing births, it keeps a marriage going.
I met Mike while working as an engineer for an aerospace company. Mike was a test pilot just out of the Air Force. He swept me off my feet—literally—by taking me on flights. After one flight we lunched from a picnic basket he had packed. At the bottom of the basket was a small white box. I reached in, and Mike dropped to one knee.


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b. 22 Sep 1856
d. 5 Jan 1920
Contributed on 12/16/08 by refwallace
Email This Contributor
Record #: 123786
On this site you can upload gravestone photos, locate ancestors and perform genealogy research. If you have a relative buried in Arkansas, we encourage you to upload a digital image using our Submit a Photo page. Contributing to this genealogy archive helps family historians and genealogy researchers locate their relatives and complete their family tree.
Submitted: 12/16/08 • Approved: 12/16/08 • Last Updated: 9/11/12 • R123786-G0-S3


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Jerry Sandusky's booking photo has just been released.
As we previously reported, Sandusky is currently locked up in a Pennsylvania county jail after failing to make $250,000 bail.
He was arrested today after two new accusers came forward -- claiming the former Penn State assistant coach sexually abused them as children.
CommentsClick To View


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The Texas Supreme Court heard arguments Tuesday in a pair of consolidated cases which involve two gay couples who were married in Massachusetts and sought divorces after moving to Texas, one in Austin and one in Dallas.
Attorney General Greg Abbott, now running for governor, opposes allowing Texas divorces in same-sex marriages. He said in court documents that Texas' recognition of marriage as only being between a man and a woman prevents gay couples from divorcing in the Lone Star State.
Should Texas allow same-sex couples to get divorces in the state? Leave a comment


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Why Did Kristen Stewart Skip the 2013 Teen Choice Awards?
Aug 12, 2013 9:00 PM EDT
Kristen Stewart was a big winner at Sunday's Teen Choice Awards, but someone is going to have to FedEx her surfboards to her. Stewart, who won Choice Movie Actress and Choice Movie in the Romance category both for The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn &md… Read more


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This week I saw an interview between George W. Bush who was talking about his father George H.W. Bush. Diane Sawyer of ABC News conducted the interview. Ms. Sawyer asked the question, "How is your father doing?" George W. said that he was doing very well, and the reason is that he never loses interest in life. He constantly wants to keep learning at the age of 88, and George W. said that is the reason George H.W. is still active and doing well.
You know what? I totally agree with George W., and that is the reason why I decided to get a degree from UW Oshkosh. It has been a long road five years, and several surgeries later I will be walking down the aisle at Kolf Sports Center on May 11,2013,
There's another part of this that's worth mentioning–I really did not have to do this. You see, I will be 71 years old in November. I have worked all my life and I am still very active in local politics, namely the Winnebago County Board of Supervisors District 21 for the last 11 years, and I still maintain a Real Estate License and other things. That keeps me busy, (including my 3 grandchildren). My point is you have got to keep active after you decide to call it quits on your day job. I wanted to learn so I decided to go back to college and get that degree.
I think that in my mind I had no idea of how hard this mission would be to accomplish. I was thinking along the lines of maybe doing a few papers and they would give me that degree. Wrong! I really did not think that there were so many hoops that I had to jump through in order to complete all the requirements. If I am scaring you and making you think about your decision of going back to school; please read on because it does get better.
I cannot tell you of the wonderful world that UWO has opened up for me. I have learned so much in the last five years and I have met so many wonderful people, professors, teachers, advisors, liberians, the Learning Center, the Writing Center, and last but not least several students who could be by grandchildren. Do you know what? They treated me just like another student. Most of all they had no reservations about helping me and several went above and beyond to help me get over the humps to figure out how to do something. The same goes for the professors, teachers, my wife and children who would work with me when I had a problem.
I do not want to start naming specific individuals because I feel like I may miss someone. But I do want to mention the advisors. They can be one of your biggest assets, and I definitely suggest you get to know them because they can guide you through the maze of completing all your requirements. These people are there to help you so my advice is to use the resources. Speaking of resources , UWO has a wonderful library and some of the nicest reference librarians you would ever meet. If you need help getting sources for a paper they are there for you. My point being is this: If you have made the decision to go back to UW Oshkosh, I can attest to the fact that you have made the right decision. My advice is "just do it." You will not regret it. I have seen many adult students achieving their goals through the degree programs.
I would like to close my last blog by saying "THANK YOU" to everyone who has helped me at UW Oshkosh and to those of you who are thinking of starting school. Don't be afraid, you can do it! I did it, and I proved to my three kids who all graduated from UW-Madison that the "OLD MAN CAN DO IT TOO"! Don't ever stop learning. Stay cool and Good Luck.
Bob Warnke, 71, is a Bachelor's of Liberal Studies Organizational Administration and Leadership student from Oshkosh, Wis. Warnke wanted to go back to college to fulfill one of his goals, and to show his three children he could do it too. Warnke is also a Winnebago County Board member.


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Featured News - Current News - Archived News - News Categories
The Zonta Club of Grand Island awarded $750 scholarships to five women in ceremonies on June 26 at the Buffalo Launch Club.
The 2012 scholarship winners are Samantha Kahn, Kallan McMillan, Kathryn Cobello, Kathleen Rustowicz and Janice Glose. All are Grand Island women who have achieved excellence in academics and through their volunteer work as stewards of their community and churches.
The awards, presented by Club President Maria Burns and Sue Fleming-Brusino of the club's Scholarship Committee, were in three categories: the Veronica Connor Scholarship for two graduating high school seniors; the Zonta Memorial Scholarship for two young women from 18 to 25 who are currently enrolled in higher education; and the Career Advancement Scholarship for a woman over 25 who is continuing her education through a post-graduate degree or pursuing courses that enable her to re-enter the work force.
Samantha Kahn and Kallan McMillan, 2012 graduates of Grand Island High School, are this year's winners of the Veronica Connor Scholarships, established in memory of the trailblazing educator for whom Grand Island's middle school was named. Miss Connor, supervising principal of the Grand Island School District, was a charter member of Grand Island's Zonta chapter.
Kahn, described by a nominator as a "deep thinker" and "creative student," plans to attend Washington University in St. Louis to major in art history and environmental studies with the goal of becoming a curator. She was a member of the Donate Life Chapter at GIHS and has volunteered with Friends of the Night People. She was at the top of her class academically and was a member of the varsity track and field team and the varsity swimming team.
McMillan's nominator calls her "creative," "artistic" and "determined." She plans to attend the SUNY College at Purchase to become a filmmaker. A top student in high school, she won honors for her bassoon playing and her participation as a member of select choral groups. She gives bassoon lessons and has her own reed-making business.
Kathryn Cobello and Kathleen Rustowicz were presented with the 2012 Memorial Scholarships established in memory of deceased members of the Grand Island club whose achievements ranged from gemologist to nurse to Girl Scout director to a journalist who participated in the U.S. Olympic fencing team as a young woman.
Cobello, a GIHS graduate, is pursuing a degree in special education and literacy at Niagara University. Her professors applaud her work ethic, organizational skills and compassion. She has achieved excellent grades while working two part-time jobs.
Rustowicz, also a GIHS grad, is an Army ROTC cadet majoring in mathematics and accounting at Canisius College. She has participated in a number of projects as a member of a sorority dedicated to service to the community. An Irish dancer, she also is a member of the St. Stephen's Parish Players. A nominator states that Rustowicz's approach to life is governed by a "service above self" philosophy.
Janice Glose, the recipient of the Career Advancement Award, is a Registered Nurse pursuing a doctorate in nursing from the Sage Graduate School in Albany. She earned her master of science degree with a specialty in rehabilitation and worked part-time in the nursing field while raising her children. Glose's doctoral studies are focused on identifying the training needs, skills, knowledge and attitudes of Certified Nursing Assistants. Her research is aimed at improving the effectiveness and upward mobility of CNAs, as well as improving the quality of care provided to the aging population in New York state. Glose plans to teach nursing at the college level. She has led medical missions to Haiti and took students to Costa Rica on a medical mission. Glose, a graduate of GIHS, Roberts Wesleyan College and the University at Buffalo, is active in local school, church and community activities.
"The Zonta Club of Grand Island raises funds all year so that we can award scholarships to these deserving women," said Linda Isenhart, a member of Zonta's Scholarship Committee and the club's treasurer. She cited events such as the club's annual fashion show in October, managing a stroller and tote concession at the Buffalo Convention Center, basket raffles and an upcoming garage sale set for July 28.
Zonta is a service organization, with 31,000 members worldwide, that is dedicated to advancing the status of women. The Grand Island Club has awarded a total of $100,000 in scholarships, and helps women in developing countries around the world. The club also contributes locally to the Neighbors Foundation, the Relay For Life, Grand Island's Miracle League, Rotary's Haiti medical mission, Child and Family Services, Hospice, Carolyn's House, Habitat for Humanity, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Read and Seed and St. Vincent DePaul, among others.


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About the Lumisoft Task Light
The Lumisoft task light has a patented optical system that effectively eliminates glare. A metal shield blocks and redirects light through two batwing lenses, which reflect light indirectly onto the work surface. The back lens also directly illuminates the surrounding vertical surfaces. An energyefficient, high-power-factor electronic ballast and T8 lamp are standard. The Lumisoft undershelf task light mounts beneath a flipper door unit or shelf. The three-step dimmer and daisy-chain system, which operates up to eight lights, are optional features.


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Happy New Year, baby!
When Mark William Orr entered the world on Jan. 2, he became a celebrity.
The infant is Saline Memorial Hospital's first baby of 2013.
Mark William is the son of Chad and Krista Orr of Malvern.
According to Rebecca Jones, director of marketing and community relations, he weighed 10 pounds and 2 ounces and was 22 inches long when his birth occurred at 12:46 p.m.
"This is Krista's fourth baby and all have been born at Saline Memorial Hospital," Jones said.
Dr. Kim Smith delivered the child, she added.
Jones noted that Mark William's siblings are: Dylan, who is 9; Emily, 7; and Jeremiah, 2.
"The hospital presented the parents with a diaper bag full of frames, toys and diapers," Jones said.
"They also received a newborn photo session courtesy of K. Bullard Photography and a gift certificate and treats from Just Leave it to Liz in Benton," she added.
The arrival of the year's first baby creates excitement throughout the hospital, Jones noted.
"Everyone here is always excited to see when the first baby is born," she said. "We love starting the year this way with a precious new life."


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Shichimi Edamame
If you like it, save it!
Save and organize all of the stuff you love in one place.Got it!
If you like something…
Click the heart, it's called favoriting. Favorite the stuff you like.Got it!
Author Notes: Last fall, my husband and I traveled to Baltimore for a few days. One of the restaurants near our hotel served edamame beans sprinkled with a spicy dusting of shichimi. Shichimi is a Japanese multi-spice mixture that typically includes red chiles, orange peel, sesame seeds, hemp and poppy seeds. This recipe is my own mixture of shichimi that gets close to what I can remember what we ate. This snack is a great healthy snack that also feels fancy. Use the spice mixture sparingly until you determine how much you want! - ChezSuzanne —TheWimpyVegetarian
Food52 Review: As a lover of Shichimi, I was intrigued by the concept of making my own blend. This recipe is a treasure that makes elevates edamame to new heights. As addictive as chips but so much better for you. I can only imagine the endless possibilities that this Shichimi could be used for: on veggies, popcorn, noodles, eggs... the sky's the limit! Packaged in tiny jars, it would also make a nice gift fit for the foodie on your list. Thanks ChezSuzanne for such a marvelous recipe. - sticksnscones —sticksnscones
Makes: 1/4 cup of shichimi
pound edamame beans, shelled
tablespoon dried red pepper flakes
teaspoons dried orange peel
teaspoons flax seeds
2 1/2
teaspoons sesame seeds
2 1/2
teaspoons poppy seeds
1 1/2
teaspoons salt
teaspoon sugar
teaspoon sichuan peppercorns
teaspoon lavender
- Warm up the beans in boiling water if you want to serve them warm. Be careful not to cook them - you just want to warm them up. This is optional, as they can be served cold as well.
- Combine all the spices in a spice grinder and grind to almost a powder. You want to see the individual spices when you sprinkle the powder on the beans.
- Put the beans in a bowl or on a plate and sprinkle some of the shichimi over them. Go enjoy the movie!
- This recipe is a Community Pick!
- This recipe was entered in the contest for Your Best Movie Snack
More Great Recipes:
Vegetable|Appetizer|Condiment|Snack|Gluten-Free|Make Ahead


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New & Now
Winner of Your Best Dumplings
Congratulations to Katie Morford and Humaira Ghilzai, whose Afghan Dumplings with Lamb Kofta and Yogurt Sauce won this week's contest for Your Best Dumplings, earning her a handsome All-Clad d5 Stainless Steel 3-Qt Steamer Set from Williams-Sonoma, plus big prizes from Viking, OXO and Tiny Prints, and a spot in the next food52 cookbook!
Q&A with Katie Morford (Humaira is on vacation)
- Describe an early food experience that has influenced the way you think about food and/or cooking.
- Watching my grandfather cook. He did so with such love and abundance. Everyone wanted to be at his table.
- What's your least favorite food?
- tripe
- What is the best thing you've made so far this year?
- I made a pasta sauce by pureeing a roasted kabocha squash with roasted garlic, a little milk and grated Parmesan. I tossed it with linguine and topped it with toasted chopped walnuts. It was delicious and super healthy.
- Describe your most spectacular kitchen disaster.
- When I was first getting into cooking, I made a smoothie with an immersion blender. I brought the blender up to my mouth to taste it and accidentally pushed the button. The next day was my very first day of work right out of college and I had a huge fat lip. That's a mistake you make only once.
- What is your idea of comfort food?
- My mom's baked macaroni and cheese
- Apron or no apron?
- No apron
- What's your favorite food-related scene in a movie?
- The food Cher makes in the movie Mermaids is pretty entertaining... everything the family eats is on a skewer.
- If you could make a show-stopping dinner for one person, living or dead, who would it be?
- Tina Fey
- You prefer to cook: a. alone, b. with others, c. it depends on your mood
- c.
Katie in the kitchen with her kids (left) and Humaira with a platter of Afghan kebabs; the lovely All-Clad d5 Stainless Steel 3-Qt Steamer Set they've won from Williams-Sonoma (below)


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- Features
- Specifications
- Videos
- Awards and Reviews
Uni-Q dirver array
Sweet, spacious and true, wherever you sit.
Thanks to the latest computer modelling techniques, years of painstaking development and a dash of design genius, the new iteration of the Uni-Q concept packs a formidable complement of design innovations. Based on the state-of-the-art HF driver developed for Concept Blade, the Q boasts a much larger (25mm/1 in. dome) tweeter for increased sensitivity and distortion-free power handling. It plays as loud as it plays true.
Advanced bass technologies
Deeper, tighter and more accurate bass.
Featuring rigid new aluminium cone technology just like the Uni-Q array, the Q Series advanced bass driver is a tour de force in its own right. A die-cast aluminium chassis rigidly locates the high efficiency vented magnet assembly to prevent unwanted resonance, and the large (50mm) voice coil ensures impressive power handling. Its musicality is impeccable: seductively tuneful and well controlled, and on the floorstanding models, complemented by dedicated front-firing auxiliary bass radiators (ABRs).
Total system design
A holistic approach with no compromises.
The performance envelope of these sensational new drive units is so generous that the signal needs minimal intermediation - simple first order crossovers are all that's required, as you can tell from the transparency of the sound and the inaudibly fluent transitions.
Q600C Centre Channel SpeakerReproducing most of the soundtrack narrative, the centre speaker is by far the most important in any home theatre surround sound system, and the Q600c is engineered accordingly.
Additional Information
|Three-way bass reflex
|Drive Units
|165mm (6.5in.) aluminium Uni-Q
25mm (1in.) vented aluminium dome HF
165mm (6.5in.) aluminium LF
165mm (6.5in.) aluminium ABR
|Frequency Response
|45Hz - 40kHz (±3dB)
|Crossover Frequencies
|500Hz, 2.5kHz
|Maximum Output
|110dB (SPL)
|Amplifier requirements
|87dB (2.83V/1m)
|8 Ohms
|210 x 629 x 302 mm (8.3 x 24.8 x 11.9 in.)
|14.1kg (31.1lbs)
|Unit measurement
|Document Download
|Q Series Brochure
Q Series Manual
Technologies Explained Document


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Lady Gaga coming to Greensboro
Lady Gaga coming to Greensboro
Heads up, little monsters: Lady Gaga is heading to town this coming spring.
Her "Born this Way Ball" tour will stop at the Greensboro Coliseum March 18. ZEDD and Lady Starlight will be featured as guests during the concert.
Tickets will go on sale to the public at 10 a.m. Dec. 7 at LiveNation.com.
Ticket presales begin Monday at LittleMonsters.com and Tuesday at 10 a.m. through Citi's private pass program.
Greensboro is the only North Carolina date on the list so far between Jan. 11 and March 20.


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With our connections in the aviation industry, including mission aviation organizations, we can connect you to industry leaders and prepare you to excel as a leader. Our solid, hands-on programs teach the skills and knowledge you need to be successful in the aviation industry. Our state-of-the-art airplanes and labs utilize the very latest technology: simulators, electronics, composite materials, computer software and jet engines.
Our aviation programs offer more than accelerated training programs - at LETU you will learn more than just how to do your profession. You will learn how to learn and think critically, so you can adapt and grow with your profession. Invest in your future by earning a professional aviation degree from an industry leader - all in a Christ-centered environment.
Read how some of our alumni have excelled after graduation.
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Owner & President,
Covington Aircraft Engines Inc.
"Attending LeTourneau helped me to grow spiritually and academically. I believe that LeTourneau helped build my character, and I appreciated the way the instructors took a special interest in each student."
Zach Osterloo, '06
Missionary Pilot
"I learned to fly with professionalism and maturity. I received the technical training that my organization was looking for, both in flying and in maintenance."


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As the days of glitches, snafus, down-time and critical errors mount up, evidence is mounting that the Healthcare.gov Obamacare exchange is not actually a fully-formed online application. More and more, it appears to be a mockup of a health care exchange enrollment system.
Image: Healthcare.gov.
Think about it: HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, on live television with Jon Stewart two nights ago, couldn't even answer the question of how many people have enrolled. This is a statistic you would have immediately, in real time, if the database application were actually functioning.
To date, there exists no evidence whatsoever that anyone has successfully enrolled through Healthcare.gov. The one person the Obama administration touted as being the first successful enrollee turned out to be a P.R. fraud.
Meanwhile, mainstream media journalists keep trying to enroll, and they still get nothing but error messages, frozen screens and non-functioning web interfaces.
Seriously: Has anybody considered the possibility that Healthcare.gov is just a front-end mockup of an online exchange and not actually a functioning application?
All they'd have to do is build an online engine that could allow people to "create accounts." Big whoop, right? That's a no-brainer in the world of online database applications. So they figured that part out and now they've got a couple hundred thousand people who have "created accounts" (i.e. entered their name and email address).
But what next? Are those people actually able to successfully purchase insurance policies that are confirmed as being active policies? Again, there is no evidence whatsoever that such a thing has happened.
Millions tried… did anyone actually get enrolled?
The Obama administration says that millions of people tried to sign up on the very first day. So, let's ask a real simple question here of the administration: Out of those millions of people who tried to sign up, how many actually have insurance policies purchased through the exchange?
Anyone? …Anyone? … Bueller?
The answer appears to be ZERO. Even Kathleen Sebelius, the very top dog at HHS, can't name a single person who has enrolled. Consider the nightmare qualities of this scenario for a second: Out of millions of people who tried, not ONE person is confirmed as enrolled? Seriously?
Obama tried to compare this to Apple rolling out a few minor updates. But that's a laughable comparison. Apple actually produces devices that successfully function. They complete phone calls and run mapping apps. You can text people on an iPhone. By comparison, Healthcare.gov seems to have no real functionality at all. If Apple shipped a fake plastic toy phonewith a simulated screen and tried to call it a "working iPhone," that would be more like what Obama is trying to pull off here.
Behind the curtain, is the Obamacare exchange a code nightmare?
Now, I get it that a bunch of people have enrolled in Kentucky, where that state exchange was run by a different team than Healthcare.gov. There are a few other states, too, where people are getting enrolled under standalone systems. But the main system – Healthcare.gov – appears to be nothing but a facade, a mockup of an actual healthcare exchange.
I'm not 100% sure of this, but the evidence continues to point in this direction. And what I suspect has happened is that as this project approached the rollout deadline, it became abundantly evident to the R&D team that this thing needs another couple of years of R&D to be completed. So they abandoned the idea of the exchange actually functioning as planned and, instead, decided to post a "fake" Obamacare exchange website that only lets people create user accounts but not actually enroll in competing health plans.
The idea now is for Obama and Sebelius to run cover for a few months, lying to the American people about the true status of the system, while the government frantically tries to whip up an R&D miracle by outsourcing the whole thing to India or China.
As a former owner of a successful software company, I've directed many R&D projects. I wrote the content management system that powers Natural News, and I engineered the algorithms that power the entire website called SCIENCE.naturalnews.com. I know what it takes to develop a complex, multi-location, multi-database relational online application. It is ridiculously complex, and my guess is that the Obama administration simply doesn't have the R&D brainpower to pull it off.
Here are just SOME of the R&D problems likely being experienced behind the scenes right now:
– Incompatible field structures across multiple remote health insurance databases
– Incompatible data types across multiple remote databases, causing errors when, for example, alpha data tries to get slammed into numeric fields (complete with all the fun of divergent field constraints)
– Data synchronization glitches, meaning database timeouts and "transaction locks" that cause data records to be locked out of write access
– System clock conflicts that cause data handshaking to fail due to mismatched time codes across systems in different time zones
– Data field overruns due to short-sighted data structure design in legacy databases (i.e. long strings that don't fit into short data fields)
– Security problems such as SQL injection attacks or targeted buffer overruns that compromise data integrity (and can even have the entire database stolen by hackers)
– Permissions errors where web applications do not have the proper security permissions to access the data required to populate web form fields (this is why drop-down boxes are failing)
On top of all this, there's the even bigger problem that these contract programmers simply don't give a s%*#! It's a government project, after all, and the longer they can drag out the bug fixes, the longer they keep getting paid. There is literally no incentive to make the website actually work. In fact, there is a financial reward for keeping it screwed up.
California spent seven years and $200 million on an abandoned DMV program
Not long ago, in fact, California blew $200+ million on a DMV overhaul program that was such a complete screw-up, the whole thing ultimately had to be scrapped. The project took seven years to reach its point of implosion, wasting over $200 million in the process and leaving the California DMV in a state of legacy chaos.
Obamacare seems a lot more complex than a driver's license system, and it has to talk to hundreds of insurance companies, financial institutions and many other databases stored in remote locations. The complexity of this program is quite literally beyond the comprehension of any one engineer. Socialist government people, in particular, can't make this work precisely becausethey tend to be delusional thinkers about reality. They literally believe they can wave a magic wand and decree something into existence. So they pronounce their plans with great fanfare – "Every person will have affordable insurance!" – but they have no idea that such promises actually require dedicated, intelligent work to transform into reality.
The Obama administration doesn't have a reputation for attracting dedicated, intelligent people. It's better known as a gang of professional liars, shortcut takers and con men whose real skills lie in making promises, not keeping them. It's far easier to make a bunch of lofty-sounding promises than it is to deliver on them, and right now, Obamacare isn't anywhere close to actually delivering.
Perhaps I'm wrong on all this and there actually is a magic wand that can transform the broken Obamacare exchange system into a functioning, streamlined web application. If such a magic wand were truly possible to develop, I'm pretty sure Microsoft, Apple or Google would have come up with one by now. Compared to Obama engineers, Google engineers are like superhuman geniuses. And even they accidentally break their own code from time to time. To expect a bunch of government contractor grunts to actually build a system that meets a hard deadline is a lot like visiting a pig farm and expecting to see those pigs sprout wings and take flight.
At what point will the Obamacare exchange hoax become obvious?
If this Obamacare exchange system really is one big con, it's going to be the biggest embarrassment ever for the democrats. This system was supposed to be their slick, reliable answer to the entire health insurance debacle. It was supposed to make health insurance "affordable," right? And it was supposed to give you a "free market" of competitive choices to keep rates low.
What it has actually delivered is nothing more than an email and name registration function that then leads you into a total dead end. The White House cannot name a single person who has successfully enrolled through this system. Kathleen Sebelius is lying when she says it's "functioning." She's running cover for Obama while he plays a delaying tactic, hoping nobody will notice his cornerstone legislation is built on a failed IT infrastructure that simply cannot function anytime in the foreseeable future.
Again, I'm not yet 100% certain of just how deeply flawed this system is, and I may yet be surprised if an R&D miracle occurs, but based on what I'm seeing right now – and based on my many years of R&D experience running high-level projects – this project looks to me like it's dead in the water. Critical design flaws. Structural data failures. Data synchronization impossibilities. These are problems that can take YEARS to resolve, even when tackled by competent, experienced programmers. You cannot simply throw money at such a project and magically make it whole.
I do not see the Obama administration demonstrating any legitimate level of R&D competence here. I see it lying, covering up the truth, and trying to tell people something is working when it clearly isn't. This is the Obama administration handing you a pile of dog crap and telling you it's a blueberry muffin with whipped cream on top. Perhaps some of the most deeply-indoctrinated worshippers of the failed Obama dream can actually eat that crap and convince themselves it's a blueberry muffin, but the rest of us know what crap smells like the minute we get a waft. And this Obamacare exchange system smells like a handful of really ripe crap being decorated in Obamaspeak language.
Joke time
Question: How many Obamacare programmers does it take to change a light bulb?
Answer: NONE. Obama simply declares darkness to be a new "energy-saving feature" of green living.
Another programming joke
An architect, a hooker and a programmer were talking one evening, and somehow, the discussion turned to which profession was the oldest.
"Come on, you guys! Everyone knows mine is the oldest profession," said the hooker.
"Ah," said the architect, "but before your profession existed, there had to be people, and who was there before people?"
"What are you getting at, God?" The hooker asked.
"And was He not the divine architect of the universe?" The architect asked, looking smug.
The programmer had been silent, but now he spoke up. "And before God took upon himself the role of an architect, what was there?"
"And who do you think created chaos?" the programmer answered.