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This post was originally published here
Taking inspiration from this old paper published by the Montreal Exchange, Below is a simple model to demonstrate how you can calculate volatility cones in Python.
Volatility cones can be used to forecast volatility over different time horizons, the idea being that when implied volatility on an option is outside of the bounds of our cones, it is either high (overpriced) or low (under-priced) relative to our historical norms. Volatility cones also demonstrate the mean reverting nature of volatility on options over time. Whereby options closer to expiry exhibit greater swings in volatility then those expiring further in the future.
We start by providing a historical volatility calculation. To keep the model simple, we use a rudimentary time measure of 20 business days per month (rather then the exact number of business days in the month), and the following implementation using population variance for historical volatility.
def calc_sigma(N, X): return sqrt(sum((X - X.mean())**2) / float(N - 1)) * sqrt(252.0)
Once we have our volatility calculations, we then calculate our historical volatilities over different time periods. These time periods cover 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 month periods.
days_to_expiry = [20, 60, 120, 180, 240]
For each of these time periods we calculate 3 values to generate our cones - an average, and upper and lower bounds.
for expiry in days_to_expiry: np_lower, np_mean, np_upper = calc_sigmas(expiry, close_data) lower.append(np_lower) means.append(np_mean) upper.append(np_upper)
In the paper, the minimum and maximum values for our different expiries have been taken. However, it would be more statistically rigorous to take 95% upper and lower confidence limits, i.e. a z-score of 2 to represent our upper and lower bounds. This would help to ensure that your signals are not as significantly affected by single outliers in our calculations. However, with our chosen data set the historical minimum and maximum volatilities provide a better illustration of how to use volatility cones, so they will remain.
Should you wish to experiment with confidence limits instead, the code is commented out in the following section of the calc_sigmas function.
# Uncomment the following three lines to use z scores instead of minimum # and maximum sigma values # # z_score=2.0 # interval = sigmas.std() * z_score # return mean - interval, mean, mean + interval # return sigmas.min(), mean, sigmas.max()
Then all that is left is to obtain our daily historical volatility values for the stock, and plot these along with the average implied volatility on the ATM options we are interested in. The implied volatility is obtained from a vendor in this example, as to calculate this would be a task worthy of a post in itself.
plot(days_to_expiry, mins, days_to_expiry, means, days_to_expiry, maxes, x, historical_sigma[-limit:], x, imp_vol_data[-limit:]) show()
In the paper a single chart is shown containing two distinct sets of data - the historical and implied volatility over our time period, alongside the upper, lower and mean historic volatilities over different durations. This may be misleading for some readers, so I present them individually.
This gives us the below charts.
The first chart displays the cones themselves. The cone shape is created by plotting our upper and lower volatility bounds over different time periods. This illustrates that over the longer term historical volatility mean reverts to ~22.5%, and that option volatility (the funnel affect) decreases as time to expiry increases.
The second and third charts shows the monthly historical versus implied volatility of our options over monthly and annual periods. You can see how significantly the historical and implied volatility differ from one another during our observation period. The bounds of our cones have been included in these plots to provide perspective from the cones.
In our second chart, as the historical volatility uses a simple 20 day equally weighted moving average calculation, whenever a there is a significant change in volatility it affects the subsequent volatility values over the subsequent 20 days, resulting in the two column shapes in the historical volatility plot.
Conversely in our annual volatility calculation, the implied and historical volatilities are heading in completely different directions!
To correctly leverage the power of the cones, one would be looking to enter into short positions when the volatility is touching the upper band, and long positions where it is touching the lower band (in a similar manner to Bollinger bands). In our specific sample there are limited opportunities for this, due to AAPL being such a liquid stock, but therein lies the challenge with the search for profitable opportunities.
It is also important to pay attention to what implied volatility is doing relative to historical. As implied volatility is derived from the market price of an option, when it is high, an option is going to be more expensive then when it is low. To put it into context, say we decide that historic volatility is too high (i.e. exceeds the upper cone boundary) at around day 80 in our 20 day volatilities plot. As implied volatility is somewhat lower at this point (~10% less), and is hovering around our historical average, it means that the price of options at this point will probably be lower then our model says it should be. Thus, we will not be able to profit as much from going short volatility here (if at all), as the market is pricing the options lower then we believe they should be.
The opposite is true around 120 days if we were to try to go long volatility here - implied volatility is ~15% greater then historical resulting in the actual option price being more expensive then your model says it should be, thus making it potentially difficult to make a profitable trade.
If you found an opportunity where you did wish to take advantage of these mispricings, when you consider the implied volatility is low for the ATM options, you could purchase a straddle (a put and call option) at, or on either side of the ATM price (depending on the available option strikes). Thus you are taking a position that suggests the options are under-priced compared with their historic norm. Conversely, when the volatility is too high you could write both out of the money put and call options to profit from the options being more expensive then normal. These are just a couple of a number of possible strategies you could use to trade volatility.
The full source code for the model is listed below, and available along with test data here.
from numpy import log, sqrt import numpy as np import pandas as pd from pylab import axhline, figure, legend, plot, show def main(): prices = pd.read_csv('AAPL.csv', index_col=0, parse_dates=True) prices.sort_index(inplace=True) imp_vol = pd.read_csv('AAPL_IMP_VOL.csv', index_col=2, parse_dates=True) imp_vol.sort_index(inplace=True) prices['Adj Returns'] = \ calculate_log_returns(prices['Adj Close'].values) close_data = prices['Adj Returns'][-300:].values imp_vol_data_30d = imp_vol['30d iv mean'][-300:].values imp_vol_data_360d = imp_vol['360d iv mean'][-300:].values days_to_expiry = [20, 60, 120, 180, 240] lower = [] means = [] upper = [] for expiry in days_to_expiry: np_lower, np_mean, np_upper = calc_sigmas(expiry, close_data) lower.append(np_lower) means.append(np_mean) upper.append(np_upper) historical_sigma_20d = calc_daily_sigma(20, close_data) historical_sigma_240d = calc_daily_sigma(240, close_data) limit = max(days_to_expiry) x = range(0, limit) fig = figure() ax1 = fig.add_subplot(3, 1, 1) plot(days_to_expiry, lower, color='red', label='Lower') plot(days_to_expiry, means, color='grey', label='Average') plot(days_to_expiry, upper, color='blue', label='Upper') axhline(lower[0], linestyle='dashed', color='red') axhline(lower[-1], linestyle='dashed', color='red') axhline(upper[0], linestyle='dashed', color='blue') axhline(upper[-1], linestyle='dashed', color='blue') ax1.set_title('Volatility Cones') legend(bbox_to_anchor=(1., 1.), loc=2) ax2 = fig.add_subplot(3, 1, 2) plot(x, historical_sigma_20d[-limit:], label='Historical') plot(x, imp_vol_data_30d[-limit:], label='Implied') axhline(lower[0], linestyle='dashed', color='red') axhline(upper[0], linestyle='dashed', color='blue') ax2.set_title('20 Day Volatilities') ax2.set_xlim(ax1.get_xlim()) ax2.set_ylim(ax1.get_ylim()) legend(bbox_to_anchor=(1., 1.), loc=2) # We only want to plot implied vol. where we have a value for historical imp_vol_data_360d[np.where(np.isnan(historical_sigma_240d))] = np.nan ax3 = fig.add_subplot(3, 1, 3) plot(x, historical_sigma_240d[-limit:], label='Historical') plot(x, imp_vol_data_360d[-limit:], label='Implied') axhline(lower[-1], linestyle='dashed', color='red') axhline(upper[-1], linestyle='dashed', color='blue') ax3.set_title('240 Day Volatilities') ax3.set_xlim(ax1.get_xlim()) ax3.set_ylim(ax1.get_ylim()) legend(bbox_to_anchor=(1., 1.), loc=2) show() def calc_sigmas(N, X, period=20): start = 0 end = N results = [] while end <= len(X): sigma = calc_sigma(N, X[start:end]) results.append(sigma) # print('N: {}, sigma: {}'.format(N, sigma)) start += period end += period sigmas = np.array(results) mean = sigmas.mean() # Uncomment the following three lines to use z scores instead of minimum # and maximum sigma values # # z_score=2.0 # interval = sigmas.std() * z_score # return mean - interval, mean, mean + interval # return sigmas.min(), mean, sigmas.max() def calc_daily_sigma(lookback, data): results = np.zeros(len(data)) start = 0 end = lookback results[start:end] = np.nan while end < len(data): results[end] = calc_sigma(lookback, data[start:end]) start += 1 end += 1 return results def calc_sigma(N, X): return sqrt(sum((X)**2) / float(N - 1)) * sqrt(252.0) def calculate_log_returns(pnl): lagged_pnl = lag(pnl) returns = log(pnl / lagged_pnl) # All values prior to our position opening in pnl will have a # value of inf. This is due to division by 0.0 returns[np.isinf(returns)] = 0. # Additionally, any values of 0 / 0 will produce NaN returns[np.isnan(returns)] = 0. return returns def lag(data): lagged = np.roll(data, 1) lagged[0] = 0. return lagged if __name__ == '__main__': main()


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This interesting art glass decanter was produced in Denmark, by Arreso glass. It is signed on the base with what looks like JMA AG. It also has it's original label on the shoulder of the piece. The decanter has a spiral optic pattern to the glass which has then been etched with fern like fronds. The rim of the decanter has a cranberry red accent and the stopper is a hollow bubble.
This piece measures 9 1/2" in height and 3 3/8" in diameter. in excellent condition it has no chips, nicks or cracks. There is one tiny inclusion in the glass, this occurred during manufacture.
6 other shoppers have this item in their Cart or Wish List
Glass Hunter Extraordinaire
Uniting quality antique and collectible glassware with passionate collectors.

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Ease Salon and Massage
51 E. 42nd St.,
Ste. 1406,
New York, NY 10017
Official Website
Mon-Fri, noon-8:30pm; Sat-Sun, noon-7pm
Nearby Subway Stops
4, 5, 6, 7, S at Grand Central-42nd St.
Payment Methods
MasterCard, Visa
Special Features
- Budget
- Late-Night
- Organic Products
Rarely does a spa merit a comparison with H&M, but Ease Salon and Massage is the exception. Like a cheap, addictive clothing store, this clean and sparse massage parlor offers dozens of quality treatments at tantalizingly low prices. Using a homemade blend of jojoba, coconut, and aloe extracts, the mostly Japanese staff performs everything from reflexology and hot stone treatments to massage and Arma techniques that target pressure points; during aromatherapy shiatsu treatments, lavender, jasmine, and orange oils are added to the skin. Packages for couples are available, as are organic-sugar body scrubs and mini-facials. The small spa's clientele includes many Japanese patrons, who enjoy both the Japanese-speaking staff and the Asian-themed services, particularly those that use heat to warm the collagen and help release toxins and pressure from the system. All treatments are priced by time, and instead of New Age music, jungle and forest sounds play throughout. Ease also offers small rooms for "pep naps" (sold in 25- and 50-minute sessions), so any stress not oiled, rubbed, or heated away can simply be dozed off.
Best of New York: Health & Self
Indoor surfing, spinning lovefests, a luxurious pig-placenta facial, and more.


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Newark, N. J. (May. 18)
Simultaneous with its announcement of its program for its thirty-second anniversary celebration next Wednesday, Beth Israel Hospital made public a free hospitalization project which has caused wide-spread interest throughout the community.
The project is specifically intended for members of lodges and fraternities who cannot pay for private room service and will commence June 1 to be in effect for one year. Special room of two to four beds will be set aside for this service.
The entire project is linked in a co-operative manner with the second annual Gala Frolic which the "Beth Israel Hospital Legion," comprised of persons interested in the welfare of the institution, will sponsor during the week of June 2 to June 9. A fraternal committee to cooperate in the project, which is intended also to develop closer relationship between the community at-large and the hospital has been formed under the leadership of Aaron Levinstone, prominent Zionist.
Mayor Ellenstein and other leading citizens have joined in commending the hospitalization project and the Frolic.
The thirty-second anniversary celebration will be in the form of a dinner and more than 1,000 persons are expected. Special guests of honor will be A. J. Dimond, Michael Hollander, Louis Bamberger and Mrs. Felix Fuld, whose late husband was one of the most devoted benefactors of the institution. A scroll will be presented to Mr. Hollander in appreciation of his many years of voluntary service. The occasion also will mark the steady growth of the institution from a small structure in 1902 to its present imposing four million dollar home. Frank I. Liveright is president of the institution.


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Devon ke Dev… Mahadev 26th December 2013 Written Episode Update
Devon ke Dev… Mahadev 26th December 2013 Written Episode, Devon ke Dev… Mahadev 26th December 2013 Written Update
Parvati takes form of Akhilandeshwari, she holds Mace in 2 upper hands. Other 2 hands are in Abhaya & vara mudra. She transfers Energy of Shivji's anger in 4 different parts, each part is transferred in 4 previously established Shivlings. The 4th one is worshipped by her in her Parvati form by offering abhishek of water is the Shivling of Earth element.
Naradji wishes to have darshan of the Shivling so they all come to meet Parvati. All Devas of 5 tatva's come too. Vishnuji describes their name & place on Earth. Please see this thread by varaali it explains the same. Shiva as the five elements
He continues, now Mahadev has to play his Damaru to bring Music back in life of people.
At Kailash Nandi has stopped having water &
Parvati tells the Devas her efforts have managed to calm down Shivji upto certain extent but, there is still a lot to be done. Kartikeya comes there questions Vishnuji about, his consolations of things will get normal but nothing of that sort has happened. If any worst is going to happen then his mamaji should tell him clearly. This angers Parvati, she tells him to be within his limits. She explains to him, till now whatever is done is under Vishnuji's guidance only. Kartikeya leaves quietly.
Vishunji tells Paravti, now they both should put combined efforts.
Arunasur removes brick & dust fallen on her mother's body, says he is doing all these for her. His ministers trys to convince him to fight againg. He refuses saying last fight was without preparation, now to win over a Deva he'll call & please another Deva.
There is draught on Earth. Farmers are finding it difficult.
Parvati goes to meet Shivji, requests him to come with her atleast once. He agrees. Both come to a place, where Vishnuji is disguised as a farmer is preparing to start his work. Seeing the guests he apologises, due to draught there is nothing to offer them.
At Ksheersagar Lakshmiji tells Naradji, due to his deep sad condition, Mahadev is not able to recognize who the farmer is. The farmer is putting efforts to plough the land with his 2 Vrishabh. Mahadev questions him why is he tryiny to do farming in an draught affected land? The farmer answers someone had told him to do his Karma with Vairagya bhav. This was told by Mahadev to Ram.
Precap: Vishnuji tells Mahadev he has always fulfilled all his responsibility, duty, then why give them up now? He asks Mahadev to play his Damaru & bring Music back on Earth.
Parvati gives Damaru to Mahadev.
Update Credit to: mnx12


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2019 Audi A6 Changes, Specs, Interior, Exterior, Engine and Price
If you're expecting a daring new 2019 Audi A6, properly, you have not actually been paying attention. 2019 Audi A6 styling strategy as lately has been as careful as Austria, and only much like recent redesigns of everything from the TT to the A8, that new product is more just like their forebear than different. Yes, that medium-length… Read More »


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Riyadh City Guide
Riyadh is the capital and largest city in Saudi Arabia. It is located in Najd the heart of the Arabian Peninsula. This capital is one of the fastest growing cities in the world, and the largest Arab city in terms of space as well as the largest Saudi cities. About 5 million people live in this city, almost a quarter of the population of the Kingdom. The percentage of foreigners is more than 34% of total population.
Riyadh name means gardens and the name is derived from the natu ... More on City


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This article was originally published in Al Rawi: Egypt's Heritage Review, issue 4 (2012).
July 2009, Cairo.
July 2009, Cairo.
The mummy is doing what mummies do best: lying there motionless in its glass coffin, like Snow White waiting for a kiss. Standing in the corner of the Egyptian Museum's Royal Mummy room, I watch throngs of tourists filing past me, ooo-ing and aah-ing at the collection of corpses laid out before them. Each rigid royal is protected in his own private, environmentally controlled cocoon - islands of calm in a lively sea of loud shorts, baseball caps, and fluorescent bikinis barely hidden beneath transparent spaghetti-strap tops. The smell of cheap sunscreen and burnt skin is palpable, it wafts behind bodies as they rush from case to case; the mummies, on the other hand, have all the time in the world, they aren't going anywhere.
To my surprise, the tourists are unmoved by the grim faces of death surrounding them. Perhaps it's the mummies' antiquity that makes the difference, or perhaps people just aren't as squeamish as I think. Would they be just as calm standing in a morgue? I wonder, or would they be slightly more freaked out? A young girl in a flowery dress sticks her tongue out in disgust while her parents read aloud a nearby label, proclaiming the name of the king lying below them.
'Seqenenre Tao,' the father says, leaning over the glass. The mother shuffles closer and the child covers her eyes; a single brown eye peeks out from behind tiny fingers. 'the guidebook says that "Tao" means "the brave."' Unsurprisingly, this particular mummy was generating a fair amount of attention. Unlike his neighbours, who lie in poses of quiet serenity, his wizened arms are raised, one wrist is twisted like a branch on a dying tree, his mouth is open in a final gasp of agonized horror. Most strikingly, his skull is full of holes.
'I wonder what happened to him.' The father says, before moving on to the next mummy in the queue, his purple flip flops slapping against the Mummy Room's cold stone floor.
I go to stand over the mummy, his body bundled in brown sheets like a newborn child, and gaze down at his head wounds through the glass. There are five in total, but only four are visible to museum-goers: a long horizontal cut slices across the top of his forehead; a narrower wound is just above the right eyebrow; below his left eye is a cut into the cheek; and a deep depression at the centre of his face marks the strike of a blunt object, which destroyed the right eye socket; a fifth sharp wound was inflicted below the left ear, perhaps by a dagger. A hole in the right cheek looks as if it was caused by a further blow, but is actually the result of the face collapsing after the trauma of the blunt blow to the nose.
A sweaty, hairy arm collides with my own.
'Look at his funny teeth,' the man remarks to his wife, his own teeth stained yellow from years of smoking. 'He looks like he's eaten a sour sweet!'
'He doesn't look happy to see us!' She says. I can't imagine he is, I think, waiting for them to move along. For a few blessed moments, I again have time to ponder the king's death in silence. Looking at his eternal grimace, his crushed and vacant eye sockets, I wonder, what was the last thing you saw?
A Most Unusual Mummy
June 9th 1886, Cairo.
Gaston Maspero, head of Egyptian Antiquities, stands over a wrapped body, its stiff shape lying outstretched on a wooden table, its face unseen for thousands of years. Leaning forward to take one last look at its pristine unwrapped form, his round glasses slip down his nose, causing the white-wrapped corpse to glide out of focus. He pushes them back, his upturned palms catching the bristles of his short white beard, and stands back upright, thinking of the mummy's journey from birth to this very moment; what twists of fate had brought this pharaoh to rest on his table in this candlelit room, thousands of years after his death? All Maspero knows is that the body, identified by inscriptions as Seqenenre Tao, had remained in storage, cradled safely in its coffin, since 1881, when it had been found, along with many of the great New Kingdom pharaohs, in a roughly cut tunnel at Deir el-Bahri in Luxor. From there it had been transported along the Nile by steamer, and brought to the Bulaq Museum in Cairo with the other royals for investigation.
935 BC, Thebes.
The priests of Amun place Seqenenre's anthropoid coffin into a roughly hewn rock tomb at Deir el-Bahri, to rest alongside his New Kingdom successors. The great royal tombs of the Valley of the Kings have been emptied, their treasures re-used in these difficult times. Seqenenre's tomb, standing at Dra Abu el-Naga, at the foot of the Theban hills, has been violated too, and his comparatively meagre grave goods recycled. Before reburying Seqenenre, the priests strip his body of all valuable amulets and jewellery (perhaps providing a further explanation as to why he has such a look of horror on his face), and scrape the gilding from his coffin. Despite their obvious impiety, however, the priests show Seqenenre some courtesy. On the coffin, which was carved to resemble a mummified king, they leave the name of the god Ptah-Sokar and the king's uraeus (a rearing cobra worn at the forehead) untouched, and paint in yellow the parts of the headdress and face where gilding had once been. Lost inscriptions are rewritten in red ink, and a necklace is painted in blue across the coffin's chest. Other places where the gold had been removed are covered in white gesso. Sealed in his new tomb, Seqenenre is again left to his eternal slumber.
June 9th, 1886, Cairo.
Touching the mummy's outer shroud, and then rubbing his first and forefingers against his thumb, Maspero feels it greasy to the touch. As he begins to unravel the linen strips, he is overpowered by a foul odour emanating from the body still hidden within. This is the first sign that something is wrong; most mummies smell of fragrant spices and oils. He peels away the layers with growing expectation, one by one, placing them at his side on another table, to reveal a horrifying face, its head pierced with cracks and holes, some caked with dribbles of brain matter; each mutilation dances in circles in the light cast from his candle. Remaining professional, he is unshaken by the sight, and continues his work in silence. Removing all of the linen, he reveals the body of a tall man - at least tall by ancient Egyptian standards - who was probably around forty at the time of death. The mummy's chest is broken and the ribs have been hurriedly squeezed together by the embalmers. Examining the arms, legs and vertebrae, Maspero finds them disarticulated, and the pelvis in pieces. Worms have penetrated the mummy's shrouds and the shells of beetle larvae are in the king's hair, as well as all around the body. The king's entire left arm is stripped of soft tissue. Completing his investigation, Maspero concludes that Seqenenre died in battle fighting for his life against enemy combatants.
Early 1900s, Cairo.
Seqenenre is again laid out on a table, this time in the recently built Egyptian Museum at Tahrir Square, home to Egypt's precious Pharaonic antiquities since 1902. Grafton Elliot Smith, an Australian anatomist, examines the royal body and makes detailed notes on his findings, later to be published in his official catalogue of the museum's royal mummies. Smith's careful examination reveals a complete lack of wounds to the arms or any part of the king's body except for the head, something confirmed in the 1970s when the mummy was x-rayed. Quite unusually, Smith comments, no attempt had been made to put the body in the traditional royal pose - arms crossed over the chest - and the king's heart had been removed. Smith knows that this was against Egyptian tradition; the deceased needed his heart for his judgement before Osiris, without it he'd be doomed for eternity. Smith then looks at the angles of the wounds in Seqenenre's head. Most are horizontal, he notes, could this mean that the king was lying down when he received them? Could he have been assassinated when sleeping in his palace? But the poor quality of the embalming, and the haste with which the embalmers had conducted their work, suggests that Seqenenre had been mummified far from the Theban royal court. Smith cannot suggest where specifically, but to Maspero it had meant only one thing: that Seqenenre was embalmed close to the spot where he'd been slain, close to a battlefield.
But how did Seqenenre end up on that battlefield? What events led him to war?
Disintegration and Invasion1700 BC.
Egypt's great Middle Kingdom, a time of artistic creativity and strong centralized power, is in a state of collapse. For much of the 13th Dynasty's tenure, Egypt's kings continued to rule from Itj-Tawy, a now lost royal city, located somewhere just north of the Faiyum Oasis. But as time progressed, cracks began to spider across the state's fragile facade, its unity a weakening fiction of pressurized cohesion, ultimately smashed by the power-hungry machinations of provincial leaders into fragments of small, independent 'kingdoms.'
One of the first states to separate centres on the city of Avaris (modern Tell el-Daba) in the northeast Delta. It declares itself independent under a ruler named Nehesy, about whom little is known. He is succeeded by a series of ephemeral rulers, men known to us only through their names on tiny faience scarabs. From reading these names, many appear to have been of Asiatic descent rather than native Egyptians, no doubt the sons of Syrio-Palestinian traders and prisoners of war, who'd settled in the north-eastern Delta during the Middle Kingdom. By declaring themselves independent of the crown, these 'kings' of Avaris cut off the 13th Dynasty pharaohs from their lucrative trade with Palestine and beyond. Even worse, the weakening of royal power leads to the loss of Egypt's control of Nubia, and the gold that lies in its deserts. Facing threats across the Delta, the royal court flees to the relative safety of Thebes, only to watch powerless as their country continues to fracture.
The royal family has abandoned Itj-Tawy, leaving its people in the hands of northern pretenders, and a plague strikes Avaris, the corpses of its citizens thrown together to rot en masse. The spectre of death makes no distinction between social classes; his cold hands touch Avaris' ruling elite too, leaving an even greater power vacuum in the north. This provides the perfect opportunity for a new group of Asiatics to cross the Sinai and occupy the city. To history, these invaders become known as the Hyksos, a corruption of the Egyptian hekka khasut, 'the rulers of foreign lands.' Armed with superior weaponry, from Avaris they swiftly expand their sphere of influence across the Delta and down the Nile Valley, gaining the allegiance of local Egyptian rulers as they march.
At first, the Hyksos advance beyond Abydos in Middle Egypt and down into Thebes. There they face resistance from the heirs of the 13th Dynasty. King Montuhotepi says that he 'drove back all foreign lands' and rescued Thebes, while King Ikhernofret, an obscure ruler normally absent from later king lists, makes similar claims, relating how he caused Thebes to be protected 'when it had been immersed' and that he protected it from the 'foreign lands.' These kings paint a picture of constant warfare, of desperately defending their city from violent forces, and periods of famine. Eventually, the Hyksos and the Thebans reach a compromise, agreeing to establish their border at Cusae in Middle Egypt, modern El-Qusiya.
For a few decades, peace dominates; that is, until Seqenenre ascends the throne.
Seqenenre's Life
1593 BC, Thebes.
In the seclusion of her birthing pavilion, Queen Tetisherit gives birth to a boy, whom she names Tao, in honour of his father King Senakhtenre Tao I. He is raised at the Theban royal court with his sisters, Ahhotep, Inhapy, and Satdjehuty, and his younger brother Kamose, first learning to read and write Hieratic - the cursive form of hieroglyphs used in daily life - before moving on to study the sacred hieroglyphs that cover temple and tomb walls. Years later, as an adult, he marries his sisters, ensuring that the royal bloodline stays within a select, small group, and elevates Inhapy to the position of Great Royal Wife.
1558 BC, Thebes.
King Senakhtenre Tao I dies and is buried in a simple shaft cut into the rock at Dra Abu el-Naga on the Theban west bank; ceremonial daggers and intricate amulets accompany him to the grave, and his funerary chapel, constructed above the shaft, is topped by a steep-sided pyramid, and fronted by a pair of obelisks. From the time of his father's death to the royal funeral, Tao refrains from shaving and cutting his hair, in line with Egyptian custom, and on the day of the final funerary rites, performs the 'opening of the mouth' ceremony on his father's mummy, revivifying it. Shortly afterwards, his coronation ceremony is held; as each crown is placed upon Tao's head, his physical body fuses with the divine spirit of kingship, raising him from the human sphere to become intermediary between mankind and the gods. At the culmination of the rites, he receives his throne name - Seqenenre.
Unlike his predecessors, Seqenenre is uncomfortable living in a country half-occupied by enemies; his great predecessors had been kings of Upper and Lower Egypt, after all, not just the Theban region. His thoughts turn to war. First, he begins to develop his naval fleet, in preparation for the army's northward journey along the Nile into enemy territory. Next, he orders the construction of a fortress at Deir el-Ballas, 40km north of Thebes, complete with an observation tower and palace. A contingent of Kerma Nubians are stationed there; these renowned fighters had formed an integral part of Egypt's war machine for over a thousand years. In the coming war, he knows he can count on their skills.
Finally, the time is ready to strike.
From this moment, the details of Seqenenre's war are lost to history.
Rethinking Seqenenre's DeathJuly 2009, Cairo.
I continue to stare into the mummy's vacant eye sockets. I lean forward, and bring my face closer to the glass. Ever since Maspero unwrapped Seqenenre's mummy, scholars have speculated on how the king received the deathly blows to his head. The major theories, however, haven't changed since these early investigations: Maspero argued that he'd been slain in battle, while Smith argued that he was assassinated sleeping in his palace. In recent years, scholars have, however, proven that the shape of the wounds in Seqenenre's head match certain weapons: the long wound to the upper forehead fits an Egyptian battleaxe, but the one to the left cheek and above the right eye perfectly matches a Hyksos-style weapon. The blow to the nose could have been the made by the blunt end of an axe or a mace, and the injury below the left ear was probably a dagger or spear. Thanks to this additional information, it seems certain that the king was set upon by a group of attackers; a group that certainly included the Hyksos, and perhaps Egyptians too.
So did Seqenenre die on the battlefield or at the hands of assassins?
The team that identified the weapons that killed Seqenenre also adapted Maspero's battlefield theory in light of their new findings. Based on the angles of attack, they figured that Seqenenre had been knocked from his chariot in the heat of battle and received the final blows while lying on the ground. Since the 1970s, this particular interpretation has been repeated many times in the scholarly literature. But does it hold up to scrutiny?
Is this how Seqenenre died?
The problems with the established theories are manifold. First and foremost, it's unlikely that a man of Seqenenre's size would be killed entirely by blows to the head in the heat of battle, without a single blow to the rest of his body. There's also no evidence that the Egyptians under Seqenenre had access to chariots. And, even if Seqenenre did have a chariot, it's unlikely that he'd charge at his enemies straight on; chariots were used to ride along the enemy front line, firing arrows at high speed from a safe distance. It could be argued that Seqenenre's body was protected by armour, leaving only his head vulnerable to the deadly blows, but the Egyptians didn't wear body armour before the Eighteenth Dynasty. The king was protected at all times, however, by his royal bodyguard. Even when hunting, the king's prey were herded into a ditch behind a barrier, so that he and his followers could take aim in safety. If the Egyptians went to such great lengths to protect their king at home, he probably wouldn't have been free to wander the battlefield. Furthermore, my own research has shown it to be unlikely that the pharaohs ever personally led their troops into battle; instead they probably remained at a safe distance from danger.
As for Smith's assassination theory, although intriguing, there is little to back it up. Smith believed that two and quite possibly four of the wounds to Seqenenre's head could have been inflicted when the king was lying down, but, recent studies have shown that many of the wounds could equally have been inflicted when he was standing, and even so, he could have been knocked down before receiving the rest. In the absence of any evidence for palace intrigue, it seems far-fetched to create a scenario in which a group of men armed with a mixture of Hyksos and Egyptian weaponry entered the royal bedchamber, and, in a rather dramatic show of care and attention, proceeded only to attack Seqenenre's face, carefully avoiding touching any other part of his body.
To me, the only explanation to fully explain the king dying on the battlefield yet not in the thick of battle, unable to defend himself or without his personal guard to defend him, and with a particular focus being on the face, is ceremonial execution, no doubt at the hands of the victorious Hyksos general. A death that could have been inflicted in controlled circumstances.
The mummy stares back at me.
The Death of King Seqenenre Tao1553 BC, Hyksos territory.
The Egyptian king kneels, his arms tied behind his back. He stares blankly ahead, deliberately avoiding the eyes of his captor. The Hyksos general knows he has a special prize: an Egyptian king. He makes a spectacle, showing off his capture, relishing in the cheers of his battle-worn and bloodied troops. Seqenenre knows what is to come and readies himself for the afterlife.
Standing in front of the kneeling Seqenenre, the Hyksos general raises his axe, a traditional weapon of the Asiatic elite with a long thin blade that flares out at its tip, and holds it steady. In an instant, it cuts through the air, powered by muscle and gravity, and enters Seqenenre's forehead just above his right eye. It slices with ease through his skull, cracking and splintering its thin surface, to penetrate the coating of his brain, before sinking deep into his grey matter. Seqenenre's world turns black. The ferocious jeers of his opponents, so loud moments earlier, fall to a dull whisper. The Hyksos general wrenches his axe free from Seqenenre's skull, freeing pieces of bone along with it. Brain matter spills from the wound. The crowd cheer at the bloody spectacle. Seqenenre falls to his back, twitching. He feels the cold earth beneath his face, its black soil is a symbol of resurrection. He exhales for the last time.
The Hyksos general brings his axe down a second time, perforating Seqenenre's left cheek, destroying the bone. Finally it is time for his coup de grace. Turning his axe around, he raises the blunt end of its handle into the air, and, gaining maximum momentum, brings its crashing into the centre of Seqenenre's face, imitating the age-old image of the smiting pharaoh. Seqenenre's nose is crushed, his right eye socket fractures; his bloodied broken face is almost unrecognizable.
Fulfilled, the Hyksos general leaves Seqenenre's body where it lies and returns to his command tent. His deputy, a loyal Egyptian vassal, approaches with his own axe. Wanting to associate himself with this great victory, he plunges it deep into Seqenenre's forehead, leaving a long fracture in the skull; the crowd cheer again, and he kicks the pharaoh over to lie prone in the dirt, face down in a pool of his own blood. As a final insult, a soldier plunges his spear into the king's neck, just below the left ear. The spectacle over, the crowd departs; the Hyksos have proven their dominance.
The king is dead.For the full scholarly report on my research into Seqenenre Tao's death, please refer to my article, 'The Death of Seqenenre Tao,' in The Journal of the American Research Center in Egypt 45 (2009), pp. 159-176.


text:
- Title: Rom Stock Huawei Y330-U01
- Listed: 09/06/2016 5:33 pm
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1. Start Flash_tool.exe.
2. Load scatter file located in the Rework-Secro folder.
3. Click Download.
4. Connect phone and enjoy the pretty colors. When the process is finished, A green circle pops up to let you know that everything is ok and you are on the right track.
5. Disconnect phone from computer.
6. Load scatter file from the USB_Upgrade folder
7. Click Download and watch as Flash_tool loads the files.
8. When the progress bar is at 0%, connect the phone. (Remember what you did to get it detected earlier)
9. SP_ Flash_Tool will start flashing your phone and after a couple of minutes the "Download OK" popup will be displayed.
10. Disconnect and reboot your new phone. It will take a while before it completes this first boot, so be patient.
If you made backups with MTKdroid you can flash these with SP_Flash_Tool.
1. Select write memory from the window tab.
2. Click write memory.
3. Change Memory setting to EMMC.
4. Browse for the file you want to flash (EBR1, EBR2, Nand and Cust).
IMPORTANT —>[DO NOT flash the Secro.img, If you do the phone will refuse to boot and you will be back at square one. I would not bother with the system, boot or recovery files, simply because the phone is now working and we are only trying to customize it.]<—- IMPORTANT.
5. Open the scatter file with Notepad++ or similar and copy the linear_start address for the file (partition) you want to flash, paste into the SP_Flash_Tool "Begin Address (Hex):" box.
6. Back in Notepad++, copy the partition_size hex value and paste into the "SP_Flash_Tool" Container Length (Hex): box.
7. Double check that you have selected the correct file, verify the start address and partition size.
8. If you are certain that everything is correct click write memory to begin flashing. When it is finished unplug phone and reboot.
※Please make a backup of your device before installing or updating ROM
Donate with PayPal to garubostar


text:
Dingo Supple Pigskin Cowgirl Boots
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Details/dingo-supple-pigskin-cowgirl-boots/045925.html DI526
- Dingo Supple Pigskin Cowgirl Boots
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Supple harness slouch boot features a pig leather foot and 10" shaft. Manmade lining. Removable harness features studs and star concho accents. Pointed toe. 2 1/2" heel.


text:
yes, we have fun at eddie concerts!
yes, we have fun at eddie concerts!
"I think the whole world should be like one big Eddie Coker concert!" SARA HICKMAN
"Thank you for coming to our school. The kids just loved you so much! I enjoyed hearing the woo-woo song throughout the day. Everyone was so happy, especially the kids. I wish you could visit and perform everyday. You are a blessing." MARIA WAGNER (KINDERGARTEN)
"My wife and I used to see Eddie in the morning with the kids at one location, go get a baby sitter for the afternoon, and then head back cross town and see him by ourselves at a second concert." JEFF & FRANCES BENJAMIN
"He's Robin Williams doing a Jimmy Buffett concert. Minus the margaritas!" SYDNEY CONNEL LONG
"Sorry to fill your inbox with an unsolicited e-mail, but I have to share with you an experience I had this morning. I was in a Kindergarten room working with a student when I heard a girl at a workstation singing "Love At Every Step." It warmed my heart to know that a month later, the kids are still carrying the Wezmore message! Thanks for a great program and the impact it continues to have on students and staff!!!" BRYAN BIRD, PRINCIPAL – BETHANY ELEMENTARY.
"To all my friends with young children, and grandchildren (gulp), you should definitely check this out. It's the current "project" of a friend of mine, Eddie Coker, called WEZMORE. Eddie Coker is an amazingly talented entertainer - singer, musician, writer, general zaniness creator. His focus is kids and their development and fulfillment; he really gets them. There is a whole generation of adults (former kids) who can attest to that. Do your kids a favor, and check it out." LAYNE JACKSON
"So, as a psychotherapist who has worked with many, many at-risk youth, and also work with adults who were once at-risk youth, I cannot say enough good things about Eddie Coker and his work of the last 25 years (via the fun music he's known for) helping to build a child's core sense of worth and value. The vast majority of kids don't have access to a private therapist or individual tutors, and far too many don't have the mentors to help them navigate today's world. By creating WEZMORE, Eddie can help reach so many kids who need it. And, what kid couldn't benefit from a little encouragement, guidance, and support to create a sense of peace and respect and love for themselves and others, while having lots of fun doing it? Sometimes all it takes is a little nudge or a goofy song to make a lasting impact."
my family
my family


text:
The Nonprofit Fundraising Solution
Powerful Revenue Strategies to Take You to the Next Level
Author: Laurence A. Pagnoni
Pub Date: October 2013
Print Edition: $19.95
Print ISBN: 9780814432969
Page Count: 240
Format: Paper or Softback
e-Book ISBN: 9780814432976
Buy the book:
I never set out to be a fundraiser; I became one of necessity. I began my career as an executive director, working for nonprofit organizations in Virginia, California, and eventually New York City. During my time as an executive director, I managed every facet of the organizations I led, including all aspects of their fundraising. I soon came to realize how essential adequate revenues were to ensuring a nonprofit mission. Without them, our visions for a better civil society amount to little more than pie in the sky.
Mark Twain once advised people to be careful about reading health books because "you might die of a misprint." I'm a big fan of Twain's poignant humor, and so when writing this book about nonprofit fundraising, I tried to keep his advice in mind and convey vital information carefully. I can assure you that nothing you'll read in this book will kill you or your organization. Chances are, though, that you are already experiencing something like stagnation, which, for those of us who have dedicated ourselves to "changing the world" through nonprofit work, can sometimes feel like its own sort of death. You dream, you sacrifice, you persist, and yet all too often you come up against a brick wall in trying to achieve real success for your mission. The issue isn't that you lack the requisite desire or dedication to excel. The problem is you lack the money to implement your vision. It's a lament that is so common in the nonprofit sector that I sometimes think I hear it in my sleep.
Subsequent to my time as an executive director, I've served nonprofit clients as a fundraising counsel for more than eighteen years in my capacity as chairman of LAPA Fundraising, an organization I founded in 1995 in New York City. I've had the privilege of offering or participating in countless conferences, seminars, workshops, and panel discussions aimed at helping nonprofit organizations raise more money. What I've noticed is that although the venues and the audiences change, the questions people ask rarely do. Whether we're in a house of worship, a university, or a conference center, in front of big audiences or tiny conclaves, someone inevitably steps forward and asks: How can I get to the next level? That is, how can my nonprofit raise more money and create the conditions for sustainable success and high impact?
"Good question," I usually say, although a more accurate response might be, "Good and very popular question." The issue of how to get a nonprofit to the next level is nearly ubiquitous because most nonprofits in the United States are small or midsize organizations, and some 87 percent of them are trying to change the world on annual revenues of less than $1 million. Fully 73 percent exist on less than $250,000 per annum. Many of these organizations ended their last fiscal year with deficits.1 These numbers aren't just sobering; they indicate quite clearly that unless these trends are somehow reversed, the future effectiveness of nonprofits in America looks gloomy indeed.
Fortunately there are a number of tried-and-true ways to get you to the next level you seek. The book you are about to read is my attempt to show you how to do so, and to help you answer that seminal question for yourselves, your donors, your constituents, your boards of directors, your communities, and most importantly, your clients. I like to say that a nonprofit is making progress when each day it gets to confront a better set of problems than it had the day before, or, in this case, better questions. My hope is that once you've implemented the ideas and tactics I've outlined, you'll never again need to ask, "How do we get to the next level?"
We all know your nonprofit requires funding to operate. A limited ability to secure revenue means a meager chance to fulfill your mission. But your success at fundraising is more complex than a simple discussion of dollars and cents because it communicates a profound message about your organization's health and well-being.
Through your fundraising program, you inform members of the community about your moral imperative and your impact on their lives, and you inspire donors to work on your behalf. Most of all, your fundraising program reflects the effectiveness of your overall organization. It's a litmus test of your viability.
The central premise of The Nonprofit Fundraising Solution is that organizational development and successful fundraising are inextricably linked. Married, if you will. Your organization will do better by seeing itself as a multifaceted entity with fundraising entrenched firmly at its center. Why? Because the barriers to better fundraising performance are, so often, the same obstacles to organizational growth. The task for your nonprofit on its way to the next level is to approach fundraising with as much passion as you have for ameliorating the social problem to which you've dedicated your mission. Getting to the next level has as much to do with organizational development as it does with the fundamentals of fundraising. These two elements need to work in lockstep. The tendency in the past has been to treat fundraising as if it existed in a vacuum, separate and distinct from the other parts of your organization.
A 2013 report released by San Francisco–based CompasPoint found:
[H]alf the chief fundraisers … expected to leave their current jobs within two years due to an assortment of pressures, including a frequent feeling that they're out on a limb because they're expected to produce results without having enough backup from bosses and boards that haven't managed to put effective, systematic fundraising plans and approaches into place.2
Too often, fundraising programs exist in a silo. The fundraiser works in isolation, and the fundraising program is not integrated into the day-to-day activities of the organization. This is a pervasive and grievous condition.
A large number of the individuals asking how they can get to the next level come from nonprofits that might be described as high-performing, underrecognized, and underresourced. In some cases, their agency has relied on one dominant funding source for too many years. In others, their private foundation grants program is rudimentary or largely inactive. Their individual donor program, if they even have one, may also be weak, while they usually have no planned giving program whatsoever. In all probability, their organization has no staff members focused entirely on fundraising, and their board of directors isn't working efficiently as a team and maximizing its strengths, nor is it very knowledgeable about its role in fundraising.
Make no mistake, I'm not trying to be Jim Collins, author of Good to Great,although I am trying to pick up where he leaves off. Many nonprofit leaders buy and refer to works by Collins and authors like him, yet they are baffled as to how to apply these theories to their real-world dilemmas. They want to use Collins's research, they know it's the right stuff, but they lack the revenue to implement the theory. They don't know how to raise all the money needed to, in Collins's words, go from good to great. They have figured out how to raise enough money to remain in existence, but they lack the tools to get to the much-desired-but-just-out-of-reach next level.
The revenue program of the typical nonprofit needs more love and care than most executives admit because without a robust revenue engine, the best ideas or strategies wither on the vine. This book aims to fill the important gap between theory and the practical methods used to secure that needed revenue—down-to-earth, detailed steps that can be implemented immediately.
How to Use This Book
Fundraising is a practitioner's craft. It requires the intuition of the artist and inquisitiveness of the scientist. It needs flexibility to pilot new approaches and time to gauge their effectiveness. It's neither primarily theory (although good theory is required), nor wishful thinking or magic. It's not a matter of manipulating your address book. Fundraising is grounded in hard reality, and central to the task is building thoughtful relationships with prospective donors who are value aligned, meaning they care about what you do and do not want to live in a world where what you do is absent.
There is no one-size-fits-all method of organizational development or fundraising, either. Every nonprofit organization has a unique mission and strategy for supporting that mission.
The Nonprofit Fundraising Solution is divided into two parts. The four chapters in Part One, "What Getting to the Next Level Really Means," articulate my theories about some of the key aspects of organizational development and explain how to focus on getting your organization ready to execute a robust fundraising program. The ideas that they contain lay the mental groundwork for what advanced fundraising requires. Written from the perspective of the fundraiser, Part One looks at how the issues of organizational culture, leadership, board governance, and higher-level thinking are fundamentally tied to fundraising.
In Part Two, "Advanced Fundraising Tactics to Raise Revenue," the tactical aspects of fundraising that I've utilized and refined the most are addressed. These chapters cover the nuts and bolts of advanced fundraising. Each of the nine chapters addresses a particular fundraising tactic that you can use. Some of the topics may be familiar to your own fundraising activities, but my take on them may provide a new perspective. Depending on your organization's unique personality, you can modify all of these tactics to accommodate your particular needs. It may require considerable work on your part, but it's also what will bring you greater revenue.
At the end of many chapters you'll find a Casebook, in which I use a real-life story to illustrate the subject at hand. "At the End of the Day," which is the designation used to close each chapter, emphasizes that chapter's main points as you move to the next one. All the organizations and cases referred to in this book are real, though most names have been changed.
The development of relationships is central to fundraising, be it a relationship to a group of donors, to the community, corporations, service providers, your peer nonprofits, or the world at large through social media. These kinds of relationships build the profile of your organization. The tactics used to foster relationships create confidence in your agency; they attract financial support and, most importantly, they enable your nonprofit to deliver its mission as effectively as possible.
I strongly urge you to read Part One as a whole before you turn to Part Two. To get to the next fundraising level, it will take more than a few clever "modifications" to set you on the right course. The correlation between fundraising performance and organizational development is too often overlooked, yet that's precisely what getting to the next level is all about. Your organization and your way ot thinking about it inevitably have to change. You may have to become better at documenting the impact of your programs. You may have to generate better client or program outcomes. Your leadership or your board may need some redirection. Or you may have to alter your culture to become more amenable to the fundraising process.
The chapters in Part Two are designed as stand-alone topics and can be read in whatever order you choose. They are chock-full of real stories that come out of my fundraising experience. Some may make you laugh, others might cause you to cry, but hopefully all contain nuggets of road-tested knowledge to help you on the way to truly achieving your mission.
My own expertise as a fundraiser is in addressing these issues from the perspective of someone who understands how money propels mission into action and has a real impact on the quality of life of the individuals and communities that nonprofit organizations serve. Once you understand the issues of organizational culture, leadership, board governance, and higher-level thinking, and see how they are related to fundraising success, implementing the tactics in Part Two will come naturally.
There is never one moment when we arrive at being the best fundraisers we can be. It's an ever-evolving and unfolding process where continuous education and reflection on our experiences are required. Having lived them myself, I understand the stresses and challenges you face in building capacity and growing your organization, and I have the experience to help guide you toward that goal. I've worked with my clients to build effective revenue engines within their nonprofits, and I want to do the same for you in this book.
What I Won't Be Covering and Why
Finally, a mention about what won't be covered: fee-for-service income by nonprofits. At first blush, the idea of a nonprofit earning income might seem like an oxymoron, but earned income(fees paid to a nonprofit for services rendered to you and me, plus governmental fees, or the money a nonprofit charges government for delivering services) accounts for 73.5 percent of total nonprofit revenue for U.S. charities.3 The estimated percentage of fee-generated income varies somewhat according to how one classifies different revenue sources. This book only addresses contributed income; that is i
ncome donated by individuals, foundations, corporations, and other potential givers. I made that choice because I'm not an expert on earned income and many good books have already covered the subject. A colleague once said to me, "I hate when I go to conferences where they talk about nonprofit fundraising and act like the 26.5 percent that's contributed income is the entire picture." His words are especially prescient given the new models of social venture hybrids. Earned income is now the primary revenue engine of the U.S. nonprofit sector and numerous international growth models. I don't deny it. I just want my readers to know there are greater authorities on that subject than me.
I think we can all agree that one of the most wonderful aspects of nonprofit work is how much potential it has to truly change the lives of others in a meaningful way. Through the work of nonprofits, enormous social problems, as well as smaller, more personal ones, can be rectified, mitigated, and eliminated as society itself is advanced as a whole. I know you've come to this book with most of the key ingredients to make that happen, like a stalwart ship on a great ocean of possibility. All that remains is to summon some powerful, long-lasting wind for your sails.
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text:
Asthma can be defined simply as reversible airways obstruction. It is one of the commonest chronic diseases worldwide and has prevalence in the UK of approximately 15 per cent in children and 8-10 per cent in adults.
The reversible obstruction occurs because there is:
It affects both large and small airways. Some individuals are affected only occasionally, for example if they have a cough or cold, go out into cold, dry air, or exercise.
Most have mild to moderate symptoms which are prevented or relieved by appropriate inhaled medications which are safe and effective. Others have much more severe asthma which requires several types of medicine and which can be serious enough to go to hospital.
Most children with asthma either grow out of it in adolescence or suffer much less as an adult, although a proportion go on to suffer with it throughout adult life.
In an asthma attack a sufferer finds it very difficult to breathe. The chest feels tight and there is a wheeze. Often they will breathe fast or hyperventilate in an effort to get as much oxygen as they can, but this does not often help. Using their reliever (usually a blue inhaler) as soon as possible will help alongside trying to calm their breathing rate down. Most people with asthma know their condition well and will know what to do. Medical aid should always be sought if someone is not getting better. Every year there are 1-2,000 deaths from severe asthma, and not being able to breathe should always be treated as an emergency.
The symptoms of asthma are usually those of recurrent wheeze, cough, breathlessness and chest tightness. Often sleep is disturbed or you may have difficulties when exercising. Frequently there is a family history of asthma or allergy, sometimes it co-exists with other atopic conditions such as eczema and hay fever, and the symptoms of asthma may be made worse by allergies e.g. to cats, pollens, dust or respiratory infections. Other medical problems can cause similar symptoms so a doctor will want to ask you questions, examine you and perform some breathing tests which may require you to keep a 'Peak Flow' diary or breathe into a device called a Spirometer.
Peak Flow measures how hard you can blow and is lower in people who are suffering with asthma. It is measured in litres per minute.
Spirometry measures more precisely the volume of air you can expel in one second followed by the volume you can blow out in total. Someone without asthma should be able to blow 70% of their lung volume out in the first second.
Modern treatment is effective at treating and preventing the symptoms of asthma.
Having an annual review with the nurse or doctor is the best way to ensure that you are getting the best and most up-to-date treatment.
The aim of treatment is to prevent symptoms so that you hardly ever need to use 'reliever' medication. This can be by avoiding triggers that you know make it worse, not smoking, and if necessary by taking preventative medication which is safe and effective.
Relievers – these inhalers (usually blue) directly relax airway muscle, opening up airways and making it easier to breathe.
Preventers – these medicines act to reduce the inflammation and mucous in the airways, and help to reduce airway muscle contraction. These are usually inhalers too, although sometimes various tablets are also used.
Flu Vaccination – each year a vaccine is developed to protect you from the current most virulent strains of influenza virus. It is available from GP surgeries in the autumn and is well worth having if you have asthma that requires regular prevention treatment, (or certain other chronic conditions, or are over 65).
If you think you may have asthma and want to find out more then you can make an appointment to see one of the nurses or doctors at the Health Centre.
If you, or someone you are with, suffer an asthma attack and it is an emergency you should call 999.
Cripps Health Centre, University Park, Nottingham, NG7 2QW
telephone: +44 (0) 115 846 8888 Int: 68888 fax: +44 (0) 115 948 0347
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text: Catherine Bosshart-Pfluger, historian of contemporary and modern history as well as specialist of gender studies. After studies in Switzerland, Germany and the USA, she received her MA in 1974, in 1981 her PhD of the University of Fribourg/Switzerland. After working from 1974 to 1991 on different research projects, she has been teaching from 1991 to 2013 first as a senior lecturer and then as a professor for contemporary history at the University of Fribourg. Since June 2013 she has retired. In fall 2013, she was nominated an independent expert for the Gender Studies Program by the Conference of University presidents of Switzerland. In 2013 she became UN main representative of BPWI in Geneva. In June 2015, she was elected Vice-chair of NGO-CSW at the UN in Geneva and has been nominated as Executive Secretary of BPW International .


text:
Well I'm going to redo my entire Gondor army from bases that used to look like this:
to this:
What do you all think?
Redoing my Minas Tirith bases
For all terrain based discussions.
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text:
A quick reminder. My Big Holiday Celebration ends tonight at midnight. This is your last chance to order any blueprint at 33 percent off.
Illinois State Senator Roland Burris is trying today to take his seat in the United States Senate after he was appointed by embattled Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich.
He was denied entry.
Burris' story connects directly to 2009, Barack Obama and the 111th Congress in a fascinating way.
Roland Burris has a 31/4 Life Purpose and is currently in a 22/4 Personal Year. Barack Obama was born on a 4 Day and had his 22/4 Personal Year in 2008.
Notice that the 22/4 cycle activates one of the important numbers in each of their Personal Numerology Blueprints. For Burris this is a good sign.
Except for one thing.
His current name 'Roland Burris' is a 29/11 in the Ancient Chaledean system. If that number seems familiar – Barack Obama has a 29/11 Life Purpose Number.
However, 29/11 isn't a great vibration to have for a current name. It can create division, as we see happening right now. Burris will always feel a sense of uncertainty and will have to watch his back. Untrustworthy friends can be a challenge. I would never recommend a 29/11 name to my clients.
On another note, Burris has a 10/1 Destiny, again mirroring Barack Obama, the man he is trying to replace. Obama and Burris also share the number 3, a great number for any politician since it indicates the power of self expression.
All in all, Obama and Burris have four numbers in common.
Roland Burris is trying join the 111th Congress convening today – during an 11 Universal Year.
111 is a very powerful number. Both Henry Kissinger and the Ayatollah Khomeini have 111 Destiny Numbers. With power must come wisdom otherwise great division will result. 2009, an 11 Universal Year, ensures that the 111th U.S. Congress will be tested.
Additionally it's important to note the 111th Congress met for its first session on January 6, 2009 – an 18/9 Universal Day.
What do all these numbers indicate.
Profound changes, letting go of the past, grappling with materialism vs. spirituality, transcending deep divisions, a chance to uplift the country, a temptation to deceive, and an opportunity for a major overhaul leading to a brand new beginning. Yes, this is a dramatic recipe of numbers.
So Roland Burris is just a reflection of what's in store for the country – the country he wants to serve. The fact that he's trying to take the very spot President-elect Barack Obama is vacating is fascinating.
The fact that both men are African American and share so many numbers is amazing.
Will Burris succeed. Possibly.
He's in a fantastic Personal Year for him, a number which also ties directly into the United States Blueprint – and yet, he carries the burden of a challenging name.
He's certainly on an adventure right now. No wonder he's taking risks – Burris is in a 5 Personal Month.
Remember, you can see whether Your current name is fortunate, find out what your Personal Year and Months reveal during 2009, and discover your Destiny and your Life Purpose – ALL for 33% off. Until midnight.
Warmest Regards,
Tania Gabrielle


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International Paper Co. of New York City and the National Child Safety Council have initiated a nationwide campaign using pictures on paper bags to help find missing or abducted children.
The bags also carry tips to prevent abduction.
Pictured on the first issue of the grocery bags is 8-year-old Louis Mackerley, who has been missing from his north Allentown home since June 7, 1984.


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On Saturday July 23,2011 we put out to hunting cams, for those individuals who do not now what they are they are basically motion sensors attached to a camera that take a photograph of anything that walks in front of it. we put out two on a trail that was heavily used. we went out Monday to to check the Cams they were still in place but had not captured a photo of a wolf yet, we plan on going out this weekend to check the cams. the cams can stay out for a month or so before the batteries need to be changed.The photo below was taken with the cam, he looked to be a one to two years old. I was able to photograph him as well.
Filed under: wolves | Leave a comment »


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Children enrolled in our 3's class must turn 3 on or before September 1st.
We want to provide opportunities for each child to:
- Make a successful transition from home to a school setting
- Learn to develop an interest and joy in learning
- Develop a feeling of success
- Develop self-control
- Develop self-expression and creativity
- Develop a secure feeling through trusting relationships
Lead classroom teachers are accredited teachers with experience in public school early childhood education. Classes are small in size to insure adequate attention is given to each child.
Our children learn through activities that focus on using their large and fine motor skills. Through a well-planned curriculum, which provides a teaching topic for each week as well as a letter, number, shape, and color to learn or review. The activities are organized around themes using centers that include art, home living, manipulatives, reading, and circle time.
Since we are a Christian Pre-School, Bible stories and scripture are used throughout the week. Weekly Chapel time will highlight the Bible theme of the year and the story of the week.
Option 1 (2 day): Tuesday/Thursday
9:30 a.m. - 1:30 p.m.
Option 2 (3 day): Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday
9:30 a.m. - 1:30 p.m.
Begins the Tuesday after Labor Day
Follows the Rockwall ISD School Calendar
Program Includes:
$50 Annual Registration Fee
$60 Supply Fee
2 Day Tuition: $140 Monthly
3 Day Tuition: $165 Monthly
*If there is more than one child per family, a 10% discount applies to the monthly tuition for the second child.


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- Home
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Business & Corporate Law
D'Amico • Burchfield is experienced in dealing with all aspects of running business operations. From negotiating leases and contracts, to dealing with employee issues, D'Amico • Burchfield is the law firm you can trust to help navigate your way through difficult business matters.
Bob D'Amico is a partner in D'Amico • Burchfield, LLP and focuses much of his practice on representing the firm's business clients.
Bob combines his educational background in accounting, hands-on experience as a co-founder and managing partner of the firm, and years of experience in many areas of law to bring a fresh perspective to young entrepreneurs and struggling businesses in today's ever-changing economic climate.
Bob's 18 years of experience as a general practitioner and business owner has provided him with a solid foundation of knowledge and practical experience on many of the legal and business related issues that impact businesses on a daily basis. This knowledge and experience enables Bob to provide clients with realistic, practical advice on specific legal issues, together with the strategic thinking necessary to assist clients in all aspects competitive business planning.
Bob understands that success in the practice of law, like any other business, is strongly rooted in excellent customer service. Promptly returning client phone calls and responding to e-mail inquiries is a top priority for Bob and everyone at D'Amico • Burchfield, LLP. In today's business environment, Bob knows that every second counts. Contact D'Amico • Burchfield, LLP and you will never experience the frustration and disappointment of endlessly waiting for your lawyer to return a simple phone call.
Bob and D'Amico • Burchfield, LLP are proud to offer young entrepreneurs and business clients legal and business consulting services. By offering modest monthly retainer packages, D'Amico • Burchfield, LLP can provide its business clients with the comfort of knowing that they can easily reach out by phone or e-mail to discuss a pending legal issue, or simply seek the input of an accomplished lawyer and businessman on many matters requiring strategic business thinking. Call or e-mail Bob D'Amico today and experience the difference.
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Receive a free consultation with one of our experienced and knowledgeable attorneys practicing in your area of need.


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Our friendly Student Services staff is here to make your time at Eastern memorable, so feel free to stop by our office in the E.E. Tourtellotte Student Center and learn about all the great things Eastern student and campus life offers.
Hannah Hay
Administrative Assistant II - Student Services
Phone: 918.465.1818
Brandon Taylor
Residence Life Coordinator
Matthew Dillard
Residence Hall Coordinator - Miller Hall
Phone: 918.465.1887
Justin Oney
Residence Hall Coordinator - Choctaw Hall


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Jan-Pro Cleaning Systems Expands National Accounts Program, Offering Clients Unique 6-Star Service
Dal-Tile, a recent Jan-Pro national account, is a strong testimony to the comprehensiveness and competitive pricing of Jan-Pro's national account program.
Alpharetta, GA (PRWEB) October 08, 2012 - Jan-Pro Franchising International, Inc. (Jan-Pro), an established global leader in advanced commercial cleaning, today announced the signing of a new national account, Dal-Tile, which will be serviced by Jan-Pro's unique 6-Star Service Program.
"National accounts needing professional, commercial cleaning services want a comprehensive program," said Bob Cole, Jan-Pro VP National Accounts. "These national companies need the thoroughness, the competitive pricing, and the ease that the single-source Jan-Pro program offers."
Jan-Pro prides itself on delivering "6-Star Service" to national clients:
- Strong competitive pricing with single point contact servicing
- Consolidated reporting and invoicing
- Self-performing owners with a large geographic footprint
- A Jan-Pro branded process that ensures consistent quality
- Advanced technology
- Ease of working with Jan-Pro
The 6-Star program has been well-received and seems to provide everything today's national account wants. Dal-Tile Corporation, a subsidiary of Mohawk Industries, manufactures, distributes and markets high-quality ceramic tile and natural stone products. In choosing Jan-Pro to service their national account, Dal-Tile felt the Jan-Pro cleaning services national account program offered the competitive pricing they wanted.
Rainmaker Solutions, a facility maintenance management business, who works with a wide array of companies, from 100 to 10,000 locations, are hired to simplify operations for national corporations. Instead of the inconsistent service that is the result of independent local janitorial companies individually servicing hundreds of different locations, Rainmaker selects one company, capable of servicing all locations.
Rainmaker feels the single source idea results in incredible savings across the board: timewise, manpower, administrative, billing and more. National clients receive one invoice, not hundreds which need to be sorted. Jan-Pro has been chosen by Rainmaker as the single source commercial cleaning company for many of their national clients.
"We need to be careful with a company we select for our clients," said Ed Rosenbaum, CEO Rainmaker Solutions. "Jan-Pro goes above and beyond what is expected. Their reputation, thoroughness, preciseness is unmatched in the industry. We feel with Jan-Pro, customer satisfaction comes first."
Jan-Pro's Cole concurred: "Today, customer satisfaction is paramount in servicing national accounts. We are committed to offering all of the features and benefits national accounts expect. Jan-Pro is honored and humbled to be recognized as a leader in this important segment of the commercial cleaning industry."
About Jan-Pro International, Inc.
Jan-Pro was founded in 1991 by Jacques Lapointe in Providence, Rhode Island, with a desire to offer the highest quality cleaning techniques and systems available. Currently, the Jan-Pro team is comprised of business leaders with experience around the world, as well as seasoned cleaning industry executives. Today, the international company structure is comprised of Master and Unit franchisees. Jan-Pro regularly receives inquiries and accolades from around the world.
To learn more, visit the Jan-Pro website at http://www.jan-pro.com
SOURCE: Jan-Pro International, Inc.
Media Contact:
Mike Dektas
(513) 234-0560


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I just decided that I was going to briefly dissect the book of 1 John. I feel like sometimes we miss the big picture about what it means to love. Hopefully this will put at least a few things into perspective..
One way that love is demonstrated through us is by how we keep His word. (1 John 2: 3-5) Our keeping of His commandments and standards for everyday life should be an overflow of our knowledge of God. The bible clearly teaches that in order to truly know The Lord, we must keep His word and then His love can be perfected in our lives. Along those same lines, as believers and followers of Christ, it is imperatively important that we have established a sound doctrine/understanding of what it is the Word of God is teaching on a particular subject. We must know what we believe, know why we believe it, and remain grounded in HIS truth. That is the only way that we will be able to understand how to let our actions and deeds be those of love. We cannot live our Christian life to the fullest if we do not strive for knowledge on God's standard for holy living. A change of action doesn't not result in a change of heart and mind. But, a change of heart and mind will effect our actions. Following the Lord's commandments will not be burdensome, but will be a great joy and a result of our love for God.
If we are truly abiding in The Lord then we are called to walk I the same manner that He walked. (1 John 2:6) If our hope is fixed solely on Him, purity and love will flow from that hope. We are beseeched by God to love in deed and truth. We cannot walk in the darkness of our former ways. Jesus is the true light in of the world. As followers of Him, we must abide in His light in order to truly love. (1John 2:8-10)
The only reason that we are even able to love other people is because of the sacrifice that Jesus paid on the cross. Because of His perfect example, we must love. Why would we not want to share His unfailing love with the world? Love is from God Himself, and is God. If we do not love, we do not know God. The same goes the other way around; the world will know that we are abiding in God, and He in us, by how we love. (1 John 4:7-16)
True love casts out fear and condemnation. We must have confidence before God. We must accept the love that He has bestowed upon each of us and believe in the name of Jesus Christ. The bible tells us that God is greater than our condemnation and greater than our hearts. (1 John 3:19-21) We must daily walk in the truth of His forgiveness, and take hold of our victorious faith!
1 John 5:20 "And we know that the Son of God has come, and has given us understanding so that we may know Him who is true; and we are in Him who is true, in His Son Jesus Christ. This is the true God and eternal life."


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Pet Sitting & Drop In Visits in Shattuck, OK
Book a pet sitter to stop by your home a few times a day to feed and play with your cat or dog.
Rover also offers pet setting & drop ins in:
|Arnett, OK
|Durham, OK
|Fargo, OK
|Follett, TX
|Fort Supply, OK
|Gage, OK
|Higgins, TX
|Laverne, OK
|Lipscomb, TX
|May, OK
As pet lovers, we understand how difficult it can be to leave your pet when you have to head out of town. Luckily, you can find the perfect Shattuck pet sitter in seconds on Rover.com. If you're looking for trusted pet sitters while you're away, whether it's for one night or a whole month, you can find a pet sitter in Shattuck, OK who meets your — and your pet's — needs. We manually review and approve every profile on our site, and we offer tools to help you make the right decision for your pet — including background checks, sitter testimonials, community reviews. We also offer educational opportunities and extra safety tools, such as the Protection Package. And we always recommend an in-person Meet & Greet so you can see that your sitter is the perfect fit for your dog. Rover is proud to be the nation's largest network of pet sitters and dog walkers.


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Carl D. Clark
Carl D. Clark
Age 83, of Parkersburg, WV, passed away January 10, 2018 at Camden-Clark Memorial Hospital following a brief illness.
He was born March 21, 1934 on Ingram Ridge, in Ritchie County WV, the son of the late George W. and Tressa J. Clark.
Carl graduated from Cairo High School in 1952. He served in the United States Army and had worked at DuPont Washington Works and the Pennzoil Oil Co. where he retired after 20 years of service.
He was also the owner and founder of the Dutch Ridge Auction House which he and his wife, Roberta started in 1984 and operated for many years, a place where they had made many friends and had a lot of fun times.
Carl is survived by two sons, Ronald J. Clark (Anne) of Waverly, WV and Richard L. Clark of Parkersburg, WV; one daughter, Robin St. Andry (Tim) of Parkersburg; grandchildren, Trevor Clark, Victoria Clark, Ryan McClung, Brandon McClung and Trinity McClung; one sister, Thelma Scott of Marietta, Ohio and several nieces and nephews.
In addition to his parents he was preceded in death by Roberta L. Clark; and one son, Randall B. Clark.
Funeral services will be 2 PM Saturday, January 13, 2018 at Lambert-Tatman Funeral Home, Green Street, Parkersburg with Pastor Don Yeager officiating.
Burial will follow at Red Hill UMC Cemetery.
Visitation will be 10 AM to 2 PM Saturday at the funeral home.
In lieu of flowers the family suggests donating to the Humane Society of Parkersburg.
Carl's favorite little friend was "Jack the Jack Russell".
We would like to send a very special "Thank You" to Donna Adams and Lisa Moretti and all the Palliative care team and staff at Camden-Clark Hospital for all their wonderful care.


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last year I attended at the k2007, world's largest plastics trade fair, where basf presented the new kontstantin grcic chair. we just have seen some miniatures and the process of designing the chair. on this year's designweek (salone internazionale del mobile 16.-21.4.2008) in milan konstantin grcic will launch myto at the triennale design museum.
my minitaure of the myto (sadly, I got it in orange)
and as we know chairs let a designer heart beat. they are the icons of design. ludwig mies van der rohe, one of the most outstanding architects, designed one of the first cantilevered chairs in 1927. once he said that it is easier to build a house than to design a good chair.
mies van der rohe – cantilever chair
marcel breuer – cantilever chair 'cesca'
check the post from last year:
| plank | – client