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A few weeks ago, I really got people riled up by simply writing about how my fundamental top-down and bottom up analysis in which I look at the sector and the earnings for Google lead me to a $2000 target ten years from today.
I didn't come to that price target by accident. Indeed, I've spent the last four months breaking down the entire app ecosystem into eight different categories and analyzing every single stock that's got big exposure to the App Revolution right now. I assigned each stock a rating on a scale of 1 to 10 and it has helped me understand how we should be positioning each individual stock and our overall portfolio. I recently turned that into a full 56 page eBook report, which you can get at http://AppRevolutionStocks.comor as an eBook for your Kindle or iPhone at http://www.smashwords.com/books/view/31192for only $79. Or you can sign up for my weekly Revolution Investing newsletterand I'll send you one section of the report per week and then the whole report when complete your one month trial.
Here's the analysis on Google from that report:
Company: GOOG - Google, Inc.
Summary: Google not only provides the most frequently used search engine for the World Wide Web, they also own one of the two main platforms that Apps run on: the Android system.
Balance Sheet: Cash and Cash Equivalents: 10 B
Short Term Investments: 14 B
Long term Investments: 128 M
Total Cash: 24.1B
Total Debt: --0
Net Cash: 24.1 B
Outstanding Shares: 319 M
Net Cash / Share: 75.54
Share Price: 595
Enterprise Value / Share: 520
Total Market Cap: 190 B
Enterprise Value: 166 B
2011 Sales Growth: 17.9%
2011 Earnings Estimate: 33.37
Enterprise Value Multiple: 15 Times Forward Earnings
Dividend & Yield: N/A
One of the truer purer-plays on the App Revolution is Google. Google's Android, while still not nearly as good overall in performance, ease-of-use, and battery-life as the iPhone (I've owned and played with many of each over the last year), has mind-boggling growth ahead of it. And like most of Google's best businesses, it's got huge profit margins, low reproduction and distribution costs, lots of disparate revenue streams and … did I mention something about growth above? Huge growth.
And there will likely be three major platforms battling it out for most of the 1.5 billion app phone buyers in 2010 — Symbian (driven by Nokia), Android (driven by Google) and iPhone (driven by Apple). There will be other platforms, but it's looking increasingly every day that they will be on a much smaller scale — Microsoft and Blackberry and perhaps HPQ's Palm, etc. Nokia's Symbian system will also grow. (Find out how we're trading Nokia in the Revolution Investing model portfolio by reading my recent newsletter dedicated to trading Nokia).
The stock's cheap, with an enterprise value now at less than 15-times next year's , when you include the $24 billion plus in cash they have on their balance sheet — nearly $75 per share. That'll be closer to $100 billion or so in cash by 2020 and if the company grows at just 15% per year for the next seven years, they'll be earning $90 a share. Throw a 20 multiple on that and add the $100 billion cash and guess where you end up? That's right, a $2000 per share price target for Google.
Revolution Investing rating: */10
See, that's not so hard or awful or evil, is it?
To get my Revolution Investing rating for Google, Apple, Intel, Finisar, Juniper, F5, Riverbed and 43 other app stocks some of which you've probably never heard of, you can simply order the report today by visiting http://AppRevolutionStocks.comand I'll personally email you the report or get it as an eBook for your Kindle or iPhone at http://www.smashwords.com/books/view/31192.
In the report, I give you some of my trademarked cut-throat Revolution Investing analysis including some history of the company, how it's trying to position itself for the app revolution and how much I like or dislike the investment prospects for that company.
And for those of you who really just want a short hand rating system, don't worry. I put a Revolution Investing rating from 1 to 10 on each stock.
I. App platforms/software: (8 stocks)
II. App gadget vendors: (7 stocks)
III. App component suppliers: (12 stocks)
IV. App network infrastructure: (6 stocks)
V. App Infrastructure Component Suppliers: (3 stocks)
VI. App equipment contractors: (5 stocks)
VII. App network providers: (6 stocks)
VIII. App retailers: (3 stocks)
Get 'em before they're hot, dear readers. Here's what one subscriber wrote me last week:
You can tell people that I bought AAPL, FFIV, and GOOG back several years ago when you recommended them in your newsletter. Also, that GOOG Call option and recently scaling into RVBD have been very profitable for me. Your newsletters have been the best investment I've made!


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Basements are used in several different ways. Some are storage units, some are converted into offices, some are family rooms and some are even used as bedrooms. But no matter what you use your basements for, it is unfortunately susceptible… Read More
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Preventing Basement Water Damage
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Happy Trails is a new series brought to you by Snowboardermag.com. We will explore resorts across America to find hidden trails and new terrain. Episode 1 takes us to Copper Mtn. to meet up with Eric Willet, Erich Dummer, Madison Ellesworth, and Brett Esser. Keep checking back for more Happy Trails.
Video by Sam Kuhn