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Conditional probability — the probability of observing one event as a result of having observed another event — is a potentially important factor in designing intelligent Web applications. Paul Meagher introduces Bayesian inference by discussing the basic mathematical concepts involved and demonstrating how to implement the underlying conditional probability calculations using PHP. In this article, the author discusses how Bayesian inference can be used to build an online PHP-based wizard that guides a user through the process making a medical diagnosis. This three-part series features interesting applications designed to help you appreciate the power and potential of Bayesian inference concepts.
If you examine current artificial intelligence, statistics, and data-mining journals, books, and conferences, you will notice that Bayesian inference techniques are being applied to increasingly complex problems in a growing number of application areas. Many Web developers, however, lack a constructive understanding of Bayesian inference and this prevents them from utilizing these techniques in their own software-development practice. This article (the first of three) aims to remedy that situation.
For a Web developer, a constructive understanding of Bayesian inference means that you are able to see how Bayesian inference can be applied to the Web development problems you are facing. To achieve this level of understanding, a developer cannot be content to simply study a few examples of how the relevant math formulas work; he must also:
- See how these math formulas might be distilled into software routines
- Determine how these mathematical software routines can be integrated into interesting Web applications
In mathematics, we are usually concerned with declarative (what is) descriptions, whereas in computer science we are usually concerned with imperative (how to) descriptions. — Abelson, Sussman, and Sussman in Structure and Interpretation of Computer Programs, p.22
Bayesian inference techniques have been widely used in developing various types of Artifical Intelligence (AI) systems (for instance for text retrieval, classification, medical diagnosis, data mining, troubleshooting, and more), so this article series will be of interest to anyone interested in building intelligent Web applications.
In this article, I will introduce some of the basic mathematical concepts and notations you need to know in order to appreciate Bayesian inference. I will also demonstrate how you can implement conditional probability and Bayes theorem calculations using PHP, and how these calculations can be used to build an online medical diagnosis wizard.
In the next two articles, I will also explore the application of Bayesian inference to the design and analysis of Web surveys (see Resources). This article lays some of the groundwork necessary for understanding this advanced application of Bayesian inference concepts.
The first and most important piece of groundwork to mention concerns the concept of conditional probability.
{mospagebreak title=Conditional probability}
A conditional probability refers to the probability of observing an event A given that you have observed a separate event B. The mathematical shorthand for expressing this idea is:
Imagine that A refers to "customer buys product A" and B refers to "customer buys product B". P(A | B) would then read as the "probability that a customer will buy product A given that they have bought product B." If A tends to occur when B occurs, then knowing that B has occurred allows you to assign a higher probability to A's occurrence than in a situation in which you did not know that B occurred.
More generally, if A and B systematically co-vary in some way, then P(A | B) will not be equal to P(A). Conversely, if A and B are independent events, then P(A | B) would be expected to equal P(A).
The need to compute a conditional probability thus arises any time you think the occurence of some event has a bearing on the probability of another event's occurring.
The most basic and intuitive method for computing P(A | B) is the set enumeration method. Using this method, P(A | B) can be computed by counting the number of times A and B occur together {A & B} and dividing by the number of times B occurs {B}:
If you observe that 12 customers to date bought product B and of those 12, 10 also bought product A, then P(A | B) would be estimated at 10/12 or 0.833. In other words, the probability of a customer buying product A given that they have purchased product B can be estimated at 83 percent by using a method that involves enumerating relative frequencies of A and B events from the data gathered to date.
You can compute a conditional probability using the set enumeration method with the following PHP code:
Listing 1. Computing conditional probability using set enumeration
* Returns conditional probability of $A given $B and $Data.
* $Data is an indexed array. Each element of the $Data array
* consists of an A measurement and B measurment on a sample
* item.
function getConditionalProbabilty($A, $B, $Data) {
$NumAB = 0;
$NumB = 0;
$NumData = count($Data);
for ($i=0; $i < $NumData; $i++) {
if (in_array($B, $Data[$i])) {
if (in_array($A, $Data[$i])) {
return $NumAB / $NumB;
{mospagebreak title=Learning from experience}
To appreciate how the getConditionalProbabiltity function might be used in practice, consider a doctor confronted with the problem of determining whether a patient has cancer given that the patient tested positive on some cancer test. The test could be something as simple as a "yes" or "no" answer to a question (such as, were you ever exposed to high levels of radiation?) or it could be the result of a physical examination of the patient.
To compute the conditional probability of cancer given a positive test result, the doctor might tally the number of past cases where cancer and a positive test result occurred together and divide by the overall number of positive test results. The following code computes this probability based on a total of four past cases where this co-variation information was collected — perhaps from the doctor's personal experiences with this particular cancer test.
Listing 2. Computing a conditional probability using getConditionalProbabiltity
require "getConditionalProbability.php";
* The elements of the $Data array use this coding convention:
* +cancer – patient has cancer
* -cancer – patient does not have cancer
* +test – patient tested positive on cancer test
* -test – patient tested negative on cancer test
$Data[0] = array("+cancer", "+test");
$Data[1] = array("-cancer", "-test");
$Data[2] = array("+cancer", "+test");
$Data[3] = array("-cancer", "+test");
// specify query variable $A and conditioning variable $B
$A = "+cancer";
$B = "+test";
// compute the conditional probability of having cancer given 1)
// a positive test and 2) a sample of covariation data
$probability = getConditionalProbabilty($A, $B, $Data);
echo "P($A|$B) = $probability";
// P(+cancer|+test) = 0.66666666666667
As you can see, the probability of having cancer given:
- A positive test result
- The data collected to date is estimated at 67 percent. In other words, in the next 100 cases where a patient tests positive, the best point estimate is that in 67 of those cases, the patient will actually have cancer. The doctor will need to weight this probability along with other information to arrive at a final diagnosis if one is warranted.
I can summarize what has been demonstrated here in more radical terms as follows:
An agent that derives a conditional probability estimate using the enumeration method appears to learn from experience and will provide an optimal estimate of the true conditional probability if it has enough representative data to draw upon.
If I replace the hypothetical doctor with a software agent implementing the enumeration algorithm above and being fed a steady diet of the case data, I might expect the agent's conditional probability estimates to become increasingly more reliable and accurate. I might say that such an agent is capable of "learning from experience."
If this is so, perhaps I want to ask what the relationship is between this simple enumeration technique for computing a conditional probability and more legitimate examples of "learning from experience," such as the semi-automated classification of spam using Bayes methods. In the next section, I will show a simple spam filter can be constructed using the enumerative power of a database.
{mospagebreak title=Conditional probability and SQL}
P(A | B) can be mapped onto database-query operations. For example, the probability of cancer given a positive test result, P(+cancer | +test), can be obtained by issuing this SQL query then doing some tallies on the result set like this:
SELECT cancer_status FROM Data WHERE test_status='+test'
If I gather information about how several boolean-valued tests co-vary with a boolean-valued diagnosis (like that of cancer or not cancer), then I can perform slightly more complex queries to study how diagnostically useful other factors are in determining whether a patient has cancer, such as in the following:
SELECT cancer_status
FROM Data
WHERE genetic_status='+'
AND age_status='+'
AND biopsy_status='+'
In the case of detecting e-mail spam, I might be interested in computing P(+spam | title_word='viagra' AND title_word='free'), which could be viewed as a directive to issue the following SQL query:
SELECT spam_status FROM Emails WHERE email_title LIKE 'viagra'
AND email_title LIKE 'free'
After enumerating the number of e-mails that are spam and have "viagra" and "free" in the title (like so):
count_emails(spam_status='+spam' AND email_title LIKE 'viagra'
AND email_title LIKE 'free')
and dividing by the overall number of e-mails with the words "viagra" and "free" in the title:
count_emails(email_title LIKE 'viagra' AND email_title LIKE 'free')
I might arrive at the conclusion that the appearence of these words in the title strongly and specifically co-varies with the message being spam (after all, 18/18 = 100 percent) and this rule might be used to automatically filter such messages.
In Bayes spam filtering, you need to initially train the software in which e-mails are spam and which are not. One can imagine storing spam_status information with each e-mail record (for example, email_id, spam_status, email_title, or email_message) and doing the previous queries and counts on this data to decide whether to forward a new e-mail into your inbox.
{mospagebreak title=Frequency versus probability format}
The getConditionalProbability function you've developed operates on counts and frequencies rather than on probabilities. In reading the literature on Bayesian reasoning, you will notice that the enumeration method for computing P(A | B) is only briefly discussed. Most authors quickly move onto describing how P(A | B) can be formulated using terms denoting probability values rather than frequency counts. For example, you can recast the formula for computing P(A | B) using such probability terms as:
The advantage of recasting the formula using terms denoting probabilities instead of frequency counts arises because in practice, you often don't have access to a data set we can use to derive conditional probability estimates through an enumeration of cases method. Instead, you often have access to higher-level summary information from past studies in the form of percentages and probabilities. With the available information, the challenge then becomes finding a way to use these probability estimates instead to compute the conditional probabilities you are interested in. Recasting the conditional probability formula in terms of probabilities allows you to make inferences based on related probability information that is more readily accessible.
The enumeration method might still be regarded as the most basic and intuitive method for computing a conditional probability. In Thomas Bayes' "Essay on the Doctrine of Chances," he uses enumeration to arrive at the conclusion that P( 2nd Event = b | 1st Event = a ) is equal to [P / N] / [ a / N], which is equal to P / a, which one can also denote as {a & b} / {a}:
Figure 1. Graphical representation of relations
Another reason why it is important to be aware of frequency versus probability format issues is because it has been demonstrated by Gerd Gigerenzer (and others) that people are better at reasoning in accordance with prescriptive Bayesian rules of inference when background information is presented in terms of frequencies of cases (1 in 10 cases) rather than probabilities (10 percent probability). A practical application of this research is that medical students are now being taught to communicate risk information in terms of frequencies of cases instead of probabilities, making it easier for patients to make better informed judgements about what actions are warranted given the test results.
Joint probability
The most basic method for computing a conditional probability using a probability format is:
This probability format is identical to the frequency format, except for the probability operator P( ) surrounding the numerator and denominator terms. The P(A & B) term denotes the joint probability of A and B occurring together. To understand how the joint probability P(A & B) can be computed from cross-tabulated data, consider the following hypothetical data (taken from pp. 147-48 of Grimstead and Snell's online texbook):
To convert this table of frequencies to a table of probabilities, you divide each cell frequency by the total frequency (60). Note that dividing by the total frequency also ensures that Cancer x Smokes cell probabilies sum to 1 and permits you to refer to the silver area of the table below as the joint probability distribution of Cancer and Smoking.
To compute the probability of cancer given that a person smokes P(+Cancer | +Smokes), you can simply substitute the values from this table into the above formula as follows:
P(+Cancer | +Smokes) = ( 3 / 60 ) / ( 13 / 60) = 0.05 / .217 = 0.23
Note that you could have derived this value from the table of frequencies as well:
P(+Cancer | +Smokes) = 3 / 13 = 0.23
How do you interpret this result? Using the recommended approach of communicating risk in terms of frequencies, you might say that of the next 100 smokers you enounter, you can expect 23 of them to experience cancer in their lifetime. What is the probability of getting cancer if you do not smoke?
P(+Cancer | -Smokes) = ( 7 / 60 ) / ( 47 / 60) = 0.117 / .783 = 0.15
So it appears that you are more likely to get cancer if you smoke than if you do not smoke, even though the tallies appearing in the table might not have initially given you that impression. It is interesting to speculate on what the true conditional probabilities might be for various types of cancer given various criteria for defining someone as a smoker.
A "cohort" research methodology would also require you to equate smokers and non-smokers on other variables like age, gender, and weight so that smoking, and not these other co-variates, can be isolated as the root cause of the different cancer rates.
To summarize, you can compute a conditional probability (+Cancer | +Smokes) from joint distribution data by dividing the relevant joint probability P(+Cancer & +Smokes) by the relevant marginal probability P(+Smokes). As you might imagine, it is often easier and more feasible to derive estimates of a conditional probability from summary tables like this, rather than expecting to apply more data-intensive enumeration methods.
{mospagebreak title=Deriving Bayes Theorem}
You are now in a position to discuss the canonical formula for Bayes inference. The derivation of Bayes formula follows naturally from the definition of conditional probability using the probability format:
Using some algebra, this equation can be rewritten as:
The same right-hand value can also be computed using A as the conditioning variable:
Given this equivalence, you can write:
Simplifying, you arrive at Bayes theorem:
Notice that this formula for computing a conditional probability is similiar to the original formula with the exception that the joint probability P(A & B) that used to appear in the numerator has been replaced with the equivalent expression P(B | A) P(A).
Computing the full posterior
Bayesian inference is often put forth as a prescriptive framework for hypothesis testing. Using this framework, it is standard to replace P(A | B) with P(H | E) where H stands for hypothesis and E stands for evidence. Bayes inference rule then looks like this:
In words, the formula says that the posterior probability of a hypothesis given the evidence P(H | E) is equal to the likelihood of the evidence given the hypothesis P(E | H) multiplied by the prior probability of the hypothesis P(H). You can ignore P(E) as only serving a normalization role (in other words, ensuring the sum of all the cell probabilities is 1.0). You can thus mentally simplify the equation to:
The prior distribution P(H) in this equation can be represented in PHP as an indexed array of probability values (as shown):
var $priors = array();
The $priors array is expected to contain a list of numbers denoting the prior probability of each hypothesis. In the context of medical diagnosis, the $priors array might contain the prevalence rates of each hypothesized disease in the population. Alternatively, the array might contain a medical specialist's best guess as to the prior probability of each disease under consideration given everything they know about each disease and current conditions.
The exact nature of the full posterior probability computation is made clearer by seeing that the posterior and likelihood terms appear in a PHP implementation as two-dimensional arrays (the closest you can currently get to a matrix datatype in PHP).
Listing 3. The posterior and likelihood terms appear in a PHP implementation as 2D arrays
// $m denotes the number of hypothesis
// $n denotes the number of evidence patterns
$m = 3;
$n = 4;
$priors = getPriorDistribution();
$likelihoods = getlikelihoodDistribution();
$evidence = getEvidenceDistribution();
for($e=0; $e < $n; $e++) {
for ($h=0; $h < $m; $h++) {
$posterior[$e][$h] = $priors[$h]
* $likelihoods[$h][$e] / $evidence[$e];
For now, ignore the issue of how the $prior, $likelihood, and $evidence distribution values are computed from raw data. You can posit magical get functions to obtain these values. The previous code shows how the values of the posterior probability matrix are computed by looping over the evidence items and the hypothesis alternatives.
The order of the index elements $e and $h in the posterior matrix might be puzzling until you realize that in PHP the evidence key should appear first in the posterior matrix because it is a lookup key. If you access the posterior matrix using an evidence key $e, it will return an array containing the probability of each hypothesis under consideration (such as, +cancer, -cancer) given the particular evidence key you have supplied (like +test). The code above computes the full posterior distribution over all evidence keys. To compute a row of the full posterior distribution for a particular evidence key, you would use this formula:
Figure 2. Formula to compute posterior distribution
{mospagebreak title=Medical diagnosis wizard}
To make it clear how Bayes theorem works, you will develop an online medical diagnosis wizard using PHP. This wizard could also have been called a calculator except that it takes four input steps to supply the prerequisite information then a step to review the result.
The wizard works by asking the user to supply the various pieces of information critical to computing the full posterior probability. The user can examine the posterior distribution to determine which which disease hypothesis enjoys the highest probability based on:
- The diagnositic test information
- The sample data used to estimate the prior and likelihood distributions
Bayes Wizard: Step 1
Step 1 in using Bayes theorem to make a medical diagnosis involves specifying the number of disease alternatives that you will examine along with the number of symptoms or evidence keys. In the generic example you will look at, you will evaluate three disease alternatives based on evidence from two diagnostic tests. Each diagnostic test can only produce a positive or negative result. This means that the total number of symptom combinations, or evidence keys, you can observe is four (++, +-, -+, or –).
Figure 3. Form to enter disease hypotheses and symptom possibilities
Bayes Wizard: Step 2
Step 2 involves entering the disease and symptom labels. In this case, you are just going to enter d1, d2, and d3 for the disease labels and ++, +-, -+ and — for the symptom labels. The two symbols used for symptom labels signify whether the results of the two diagnostic tests came out positive or negative.
Figure 4. Form to enter disease and symptom labels
Bayes Wizard: Step 3
Step 3 involves entering the prior probabilities for each disease. You will use the data table below to determine the prior probabilities to enter for step three and the likelihood to enter for step four (this data table originally appeared in Introduction to Probability). Using this example allows you to confirm that the final result you obtain from the wizard agrees with the results you can find in this book.
Figure 5. Joint frequency of diseases and symptoms
The prior probability of each disease refers to the number of patients diagnosed with each disease divided by the total number of diagnosed cases in this sample. The relevant prior probabilities for each disease are entered in the following:
Figure 6. Form to enter disease priors
You do not have to rely upon a data table such as the previous one to derive the prior probability estimates. In some cases, you can derive prior probabilities by using common-sense reasoning: The prior probability of a fair two-sided coin coming up heads is 0.5. The prior probability of selecting a queen of hearts from a randomized deck of cards is 1/52.
You also commonly run into situations where you intially have no good estimates of what the prior probability of each hypothesis might be. In such cases, it is common to posit noninformative priors. If you have four hypothesis alternatives, then the noninformative prior distribution would be 1/4 or 0.25 for each hypothesis. You might note here that Bayesians often criticize the use of a null hypothesis in significance testing because it amounts to assuming noninformative priors in cases where positing informative priors might be more theoretically or empirically justified.
A final way to derive estimates of the prior probability of each hypothesis P(Hi) is through a subjective estimate of what those probabilities might be given everything you have learned about the way the world works up to that point P( H=h | Everything you know). You will often find Bayesian inference sharing the same bed with a subjective view of probability in which the probability of a proposition is equated with one's subjective degree of belief in the proposition.
What it important in this discussion is that Bayesian inference is a flexible technique that allows you to estimate prior probabilities using objective methods, common-sense logical methods, and subjective methods. When using subjective methods, you must still be willing to defend your prior probability estimates. You may use objective data to help set and justify your subjective estimates which means that Bayesian inference is not necessarily in conflict with more objectively oriented approaches to statistical inference.
Bayes Wizard: Step 4
The data table provides you with information you can use to compute the probability of the symptoms (like test results) given the disease, also known as the likelihood distribution P(E | H).
To see how the likelihood values entered below were computed, you can unpack P(E|H) using the frequency format for computing conditional probabilities:
This tells us that you need to divide a joint frequency count {E & H} by a marginal frequency count {H} to obtain the likelihood value for each cell in your likelihood matrix. The top left cell of your likelihood matrix P(E='++' | H='d1) can be immediately computed from the joint and marginal frequency counts appearing in the data table:
P(E='++' | H='d1) = 2110 / 3125 = .6562
All the likelihood values entered in Step 4 were computed in this manner.
Figure 7. Form to enter likelihood of symptoms given the disease
It should be noted that many statisticians use likelihood as a system of inference instead of, or in addition to, Bayesian inference. This is because likelihoods also provide a metric one can use to evaluate the relative degree of support for several hypotheses given the data.
In the previous example, you can see that the probability of a particular evidence key varies for each hypothesis under consideration. The probability of the ++ evidence key is the greatest for the d1 hypothesis. You can assess which hypothesis is best supported by the data by:
- Examining the likelihood of the evidence key given each hypothesis key
- Selecting the hypothesis that maximizes the likelihood of the evidence key
Doing so would be an example of inference according to the principle of maximum likelihood.
Another interesting point to note is that all the values in the above likelihood distibution sum to a value greater than 1. What this means is that the likelihood distribution is not really a probability distribution because it lacks the defining property that the distribution of values sum to 1. This summation property is not essential for the purposes of evaluating the relative support for different hypotheses. What is important for this purpose is that the "likelihood supplies a natural order of preference among the possibilities under consideration" (from R.A. Fisher's Statistical Methods and Scientific Inference, p. 68).
You may not understand fully the concept of likelihood from this brief discussion, but I do hope that you appreciate its importance to the overall Bayes theorem calculation and its importance as the foundation for another system of inference. The likelihood system of inference is preferred by many statisticians because you don't have to resort to the dubious practice of trying to estimate the prior probability of each hypothesis.
Maximum likelihood estimators also have many desirable mathematical properties that make them nice to work with (the properties include transitivity, additivity, a lack of bias, and invariance under transformations, among others). For these reasons, it is often a good idea to closely examine your likelihood distribution in addition to your posterior distibution when making inferences from your data.
Bayes Wizard: Step 5
The final step of the process involves displaying the posterior distribution of the diseases given the symptoms P(H | E):
Figure 8. Probability of each disease given symptoms
The section of the script that was used to compute and display the posterior distribution looks like this:
Listing 4. Computing and displaying the posterior distribution
include "Bayes.php";
$disease_labels = $_POST["disease_labels"];
$symptom_labels = $_POST["symptom_labels"];
$priors = $_POST["priors"];
$likelihoods = $_POST["likelihoods"];
$bayes = new Bayes($priors, $likelihoods);
$bayes->setRowLabels($symptom_labels); // aka evidence labels
$bayes->setColumnLabels($disease_labels); // aka hypothesis labels
You begin by loading the Bayes constructor with the priors and likelihoods obtained from previous wizard steps. Using this information, you compute the posterior using the $bayes->getPosterior() method. To output the posterior distribution to the browser, you first set the row and column labels to display, then output the posterior distribution using the $bayes->toHTML() method.
{mospagebreak title=Implementing the calculation with Bayes.php}
The Bayes.php class implements the Bayes theorem calculation. The getPosterior method is where most of the mathematically interesting code resides.
Listing 5. Implementing the calculation with the Bayes.php class
* Bayes
* Calculates posterior probabilities for m hypotheses and n evidence
* alternatives. The code was inspired by a procedural TrueBasic version
* (Bayes.tru) bundled with Grimstead and Snell's excellent online
* textbook "Introduction to Probability".
class Bayes {
* Number of evidence alternatives (that is, number of rows).
var $m;
* Number of hypothesis alternatives (that is, number of columns).
var $n;
* Output labels for evidence alternatives.
var $row_labels = array();
* Output labels for hypothesis alternatives.
var $column_labels = array();
* Vector container for prior probabilities.
var $priors = array();
* Matrix container for likelihood of evidence e given hypothesis h.
var $likelihoods = array();
* Matrix container for posterior probabilties.
var $posterior = array();
* Vector container for evidence probabilties.
var $evidence = array();
* Initialize the Bayes algorithm by setting the priors, likelihoods
* and dimensions of the likelihood and posterior matrices.
function Bayes($priors, $likelihoods) {
$this->priors = $priors;
$this->likelihoods = $likelihoods;
$this->m = count($this->likelihoods); // num rows
$this->n = count($this->likelihoods[0]); // num cols
return true;
* Output method for setting row labels prior to display.
function setRowLabels($row_labels) {
$this->row_labels = $row_labels;
return true;
* Output method for setting column labels prior to display.
function setColumnLabels($column_labels) {
$this->column_labels = $column_labels;
return true;
* Compute the posterior probability matrix given the priors and
* likelihoods.
* The first set of loops computes the denominator of the canonical
* Bayes equation. The probability appearing in the denominator
* serves a normalizing role in the computation – it ensures that
* posterior probabilities sum to 1.
* The second set of loops:
* 1. multiplies the prior[$h] by the likelihood[$h][$e]
* 2. divides the result by the denominator
* 3. assigns the result to the posterior[$e][$h] probability matrix
function getPosterior() {
// Find probability of evidence e
for($e=0; $e < $this->n; $e++) {
for ($h=0; $h < $this->m; $h++) {
$this->evidence[$e] += $this->priors[$h]
* $this->likelihoods[$h][$e];
// Find probability of hypothesis given evidence
for($e=0; $e < $this->n; $e++) {
for ($h=0; $h < $this->m; $h++) {
$this->posterior[$e][$h] = $this->priors[$h
* $this->likelihoods[$h][$e] / $this->evidence[$e];
return true;
* Output method for displaying posterior probability matrix
function toHTML($number_format="%01.3f") {
<table border='1′ cellpadding='5′ cellspacing='0′>
<td> </td>
for ($h=0; $h < $this->m; $h++) {
<td align='center'>
<b><?php echo $this->column_labels[$h] ?></b>
for($e=0; $e < $this->n; $e++) {
<td><b><?php echo $this->row_labels[$e] ?></b></td>
for ($h=0; $h < $this->m; $h++) {
<td align='right'>
<?php printf($number_format, $this->posterior[$e][$h]) ?>
{mospagebreak title=Sensitivity analysis}
An important aspect of Bayesian inference involves examining the effect of small changes to your prior and likelihood distributions. If the prior probability values you are using are viewed as best guesses, then you might want to see what happens when you adjust the prior probabilities of each hypothesis slightly. You may notice that this significantly changes the posterior distribution values or it might have little effect. It is good to know how sensitive your results are to the exact prior values (or likelihood values) used.
The final screen of the Bayes diagnosis wizard gives you the options to
- Start again
- Re-enter labels
- Re-enter your priors
- Re-enter your likelihoods
If you decide to re-enter your priors, the wizard remembers your previously entered likelihoods. After you re-enter your priors, you can click forward to Step 5 without having to re-enter your likelihood values (or you can modify the likelihoods as well). In other words, the design of the Bayes wizard encourages you to engage in sensitivity analysis prior to drawing any final conclusions.
It's only a beginning
Since you have made it this far, you should have a basic understanding of how Bayesian inference works. I will, however, continue to focus on the more general concept of conditional probability and the availability of various techniques, including but not restricted to the Bayes theorem, that you might use to compute a conditional probability value.
One way to compute a conditional probability is by enumeration and you have explored the idea that databases might be good tools to use to compute conditional probabilties in this way. Indeed, these conditional probability computations often form the primitives used in many data-mining applications. I'll present other opportunties to explore the role of databases in computing conditional probabilites in the upcoming articles on Web survey analysis.
Bayes theorem is another method you can use to compute a conditional probability. In this article, I demonstrated what a prior, likelihood, and posterior distribution are; how to estimate the prior and likelihood distributions from raw data; and how you can use PHP to compute the full posterior distribution. To become more skillful in the art of Bayesian inference requires that you become thoroughly familiar with these three concepts.
You've only scratched the surface of Bayes inference. Hopefully this article has provided you a good foundation for exploring more advanced topics in Bayesian inference, such as Bayes classifiers, Bayes learning algorithms, and Bayes networks.
{mospagebreak title=Resources}
• Download the source code used in this article. Find updates to the code at phpmath.com.
• Read "SMART HEURISTICS" by Gerd Gigerenzer. This study of fast and frugal decision-making looks at smart heuristics people actually use to make good decisions.
• Look at the paper "Teaching Bayesian Reasoning in Less Than Two Hours." Authors Gerd Gigerenzer and Peter Sedlmeier present and test a new method of teaching Bayesian reasoning.
• Discover one of the oldest (but still powerful) computer science references, "An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances" by Thomas Bayes (1763) as it covers the Bayes's Theorem.
• Explore the development of a new concept for aggregating items of evidence in classification problems in "Multiplicative Adjustment of Class Probability: Educating Naive Bayes."
• Read "A Decomposition Of Classes Via Clustering To Explain And Improve Naive Bayes" for a method to improve the probability estimates made by Naive Bayes and avoid the effects of poor class conditional probabilities based on product distributions when each class spreads into multiple regions.
• In "An analysis of data characteristics that affect naive Bayes performance," identify some data characteristics for which naive Bayes works well.
• Take the "Web site user modeling with PHP" tutorial and learn how to construct a user-modeling platform that can use clickstream data to build Web site user models (developerWorks, December 2003).
• Explore "An autonomic computing roadmap" for more about the Agent Building and Learning Environment (ABLE) that provides Learning Beans that implement Bayesian reasoning (developerWorks, February 2004).
• Halt spam with these two Bayesian-based techniques in "Spam filtering techniques" (developerWorks, September 2002).
• In "Apply probability models to Web data using PHP," discover how to fit the benefits of probability modeling into Web application development (developerWorks, October 2003).
• Get good ideas on how to apply Bayesian inference to database technology in these data mining publications by Rakesh Agrawal, an IBM Fellow recently recognized as an ACM Fellow for his pioneering research in data mining.
• Read the later articles in the author's series on Bayesian inference:
o "Implement Bayesian inference using PHP, Part 2" solves parameter estimation problems (developerWorks, April 2004).
o "Implement Bayesian inference using PHP, Part 3" solves classification problems in medical diagnostic testing and Web survey analysis as it applies Bayesian and conditional probability concepts to both building classifier systems and analyzing the accuracy of their output (developerWorks, May 2004)
• Explore the Hugin Expert site for such Bayesian networking software tools as BayesCredit, a tool for risk protection.
• See what Norsys offers with Netica, a Bayesian network development software that helps manage uncertainty.
• Visit Bayesia for products that facilitate knowledge modeling and data mining, and can help developers add the power of a Bayesian decision engine to their applications.
• Get a good start on topics in probability with the textbook Introduction to Probability by Charles Grimstead and J. Laurie Snell (American Mathematical Society, 2nd Ed., available in PDF).
• For excellent coverage of more advanced Bayesian reasoning techniques, read Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach by Stuart Russell and Peter Norvig (Prentice Hall, 2003).
• If you're interested in applying Bayesian inference to data mining problems, Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques by Jiawei Han and Micheline Kamber is a good starting point (Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, 2000).
• Learn the conceptual basis of programming in this well-know text, Structure and Interpretation of Computer Programs by Harold Abelson, Gerald Jay Sussman, and Julie Sussman (MIT Press, 2nd. Ed., 1996).
• Check out Statistical Methods, Experimental Design, and Scientific Inference, a single volume that brings together the classical works of R.A. Fisher: Statistical Methods for Research Workers, Statistical Methods and Scientific Inference (mentioned in this article), and The Design of Experiments (Oxford University Press, 1990).
• Browse the developerWorks bookstore for titles on this and other related subjects.
• Visit developerWorks Web Architecture zone for a range of articles on the topic of Web architecture and usability.
|Download Method
Information about download methods
About the author
Paul Meagher is a freelance Web developer, writer, and data analyst. Paul has a graduate degree in Cognitive Science and has spent the last six years developing Web applications. His current interests include statistical computing, data mining, content management, and e-learning. Paul can be contacted at firstname.lastname@example.com.


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M Ward
While "singing beautifully sad songs about mortality and feeling lonesome" (Rolling Stone) M. Ward has spent years crafting music to become one of the most acclaimed American musicians of the decade.
The man known as Matthew Stephen Ward to his parents grew up listening to country, gospel and classical music, and first came to attention with the California band Rodriguez before going solo. Combining his country/folk/blues roots with indie rock, Ward began a distinctive solo career that encompasses jazzy pop melodies and atmospheric textures.
His solo releases have resulted in increasing notoriety with each release. On 2003's Transfiguration of Vincent, Ward "creates a full, alluring atmosphere that will recall for listeners all sorts of classic American music" (PopMatters). 2005's Transistor Radio is "musically imaginative, robustly performed, and drawn from a golden well of warmth and intelligence" (Delusions of Adequacy) and 2007's Post-War "squeezes big themes into modest but bewitching tunes" (Blender).
After taking a detour to form the critically-accliamed group She & Him with actress Zooey Deschanel, Ward released a new solo album earlier this year. Entertainment Weekly wrote his latest release, Hold Time, is "a musical wanderer's dusty, train-hopping tour through folk, blues, and country." This CD "cements his status as one of America's best roots songwriters" (Q Magazine) and is "as finely wrought and thoroughly affecting an indie effort as 2009 is likely to see" (New York Magazine).

subset: commoncrawl


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Guillem Balague
Spanish Football Expert & Columnist @GuillemBalague
Revista's Guillem Balague picks La Liga Team of the Season for 2012/13
Guillem Balague has chosen his La Liga Team of the Season - and now wants to know if you agree with it...
Last Updated: 06/06/13 7:19pm
But I have also named my individual best XI of the year - I'm sure the front three is pretty easy to guess! - and I would like YOUR views on whether the team I have selected is the right one.
Read below to see what I came up with and then send me your sides of the season using the feedback form below or by contacting me on Twitter @GuillemBalague...
Goalkeeper - Thibaut Courtois (Atletico Madrid)
The on-loan Chelsea goalkeeper, who played in all but one of Atletico Madrid's La Liga games this season, kept 20 clean sheets and helped his team finish third in the table. He also made a string of saves as Atletico beat Real Madrid in the Copa del Rey final, something that didn't go unnoticed by new Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho...
Full-backs - Juanfran (Atletico Madrid); Jordi Alba (Barcelona)
Atletico's former Osasuna right-back Juanfran had a fantastic season and played a big part in helping his team earn the best defensive record in La Liga. Jordi Alba (pictured) carried on where he left off in last summer's European Championships for Spain, making constant runs forward from left-back and allowing Andres Iniesta to play in a freer role in midfield.
Centre-backs - Raphael Varane (Real Madrid); Inigo Martinez (Real Sociedad)
Varane (pictured) has established himself in Real's defence this season and as Graham Hunter has said on Revista he has really become a star because he is fast and has real quality when he is on the ball. Martinez defended brilliantly for Real Sociedad and scored four goals as the Basque team finished in the top four and is wanted by Real Madrid and Barcelona.
Midfielders - Andres Iniesta (Barcelona); Ever Banega (Valencia); Antoine Griezmann (Real Sociedad)
Iniesta has been brilliant once again this season and is able to control games by combining the passing skills of Xavi and the dribbling ability of Lionel Messi and he keeps on getting better. Banega has been key for Valencia from the midfield position and managed to add four goals to his four assists, while Griezmann (pictured) netted 10 goals for Sociedad and is capable of playing as a fourth striker.
Forwards - Lionel Messi (Barcelona); Radamel Falcao (Atletico Madrid); Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid)
These guys pick themselves! Messi (46), Falcao (28) and Ronaldo (34) scored 108 La Liga goals between them and each proved how important they are to their club, especially Messi who, if you remember, scored a wonderful goal against Athletic Bilbao when barely fit. This front three has plenty of skill, pace and power and can you imagine playing against it?


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Her son is one of the most recognized names in professional football, but while Tim Tebow was still in his mother's womb, Pam Tebow was told to abort him because doctors said "It wasn't really a baby. It was a tumor," she told a crowd at an event in March.
Her son is one of the most recognized names in professional football, but while Tim Tebow was still in his mother's womb, Pam Tebow was told to abort him because doctors said "It wasn't really a baby. It was a tumor," she told a crowd at an event in March.
Despite almost losing her son several times during the pregnancy and being told that if she had him he would never be able to walk, run or have a normal life, Pam Tebow went against doctor advice and saw her pregnancy through.
As the guest speaker for this year's Open Arms Crisis Pregnancy Center Gala, Pam will share her story and testimony Tuesday at the Leila Patterson Center in Fletcher. The public is invited to the event, presented by Park Ridge Health and First Baptist Church of Hendersonville.
"We knew we didn't want to do the same thing we did last year, so we really prayed about it, and I really felt like God was saying to have Pam Tebow. God just put it on my heart and the (Open Arms) board said, 'Yes, let's go for it,'" said Joyce Wright, director of Open Arms in Hendersonville. "We didn't know where to find her or what to do, but we contacted her directly, and it all worked out."
While she and her husband were missionaries in the Philippines in 1987, Pam was advised to have the abortion because of complications due to medication used for an amoeba infection, but she told the doctors "No."
She has publicly referred to Tim as her "miracle baby," after the doctor who delivered him called the baby a miracle because hardly any placenta was still attached — just enough to keep him alive. That miracle baby grew up to be the 2007 Heisman Trophy winner and a first-round NFL draft pick in 2010.
"I've spoken with Pam a few times. She will share her testimony on how God led her through that experience of not having the abortion and not listening to the doctors, but listening to God," Wright said. "I think she has a terrific testimony of how God led her through that experience. (Open Arms) exists to help choose life, and she's a living example of that."
The event is Open Arms' largest fundraiser of the year, and this year will be the largest yet.
"Last year we had about 350 people, and this year we anticipate having about 525 in attendance. We still have some seating left, but it is limited because we anticipate maxing out our space," Wright said.
The crisis pregnancy center, located on Washington Street, helps meet the needs of women and girls in Henderson County and surrounding areas who require pregnancy support. Above all, Wright said, the center aims to help expectant mothers "choose life" rather than have abortions.
"I don't want to inflate the numbers, but I think we save more babies than we know because I think a lot of our clients don't tell us that they considered abortion," Wright said. "Sometimes we find out after the baby is a year old. I know of six this year that have been saved from abortion, which is phenomenal."
"We average between 75 and 85 clients per month, and we see our clients through their pregnancies until the babies are 18 months old," Wright said. "We try to assist them with counseling, clothes, diapers and wipes, and we see a wide variety of clients. Within the last three years, more of our clients are younger — teenagers and in their 20s. What we do is try to help them make good decisions."
Doors will open at 5:30 p.m. and dinner, provided by Carrabba's Italian Grill, will be served at 6:30 p.m. There is no admission to attend, but donations are welcomed, as the Open Arms board hopes to raise between $80,000 and $150,000 to help keep it running smoothly through the next year.
Open Arms does ask that people who plan to attend call 828-515-1112 or email firstname.lastname@example.com, as seating is limited.
"We want this evening to be enjoyable for the people who are coming," Wright said, "and something they'll look forward to from year to year."


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|System: X360, PS3, PS2
|Review Rating Legend
|Dev: EA Canada
|1.0 - 1.9 = Avoid
|4.0 - 4.4 = Great
|Pub: EA
|2.0 - 2.4 = Poor
|4.5 - 4.9 = Must Buy
|Release: Dec. 11, 2007
|2.5 - 2.9 = Average
|5.0 = The Best
|Players: 1-4
|3.0 - 3.4 = Fair
|ESRB Rating: Everyone
|3.5 - 3.9 = Good
by D'Marcus Beatty
EA and 2K Sports are the top competitors when it comes to sports games. Each year is a back and forth contest between the two companies to produce the best sports game. While EA always blows any contender out of the water when it comes to football and their insanely popular Madden series, for the last few years EA has been having a bit of trouble where basketball is concerned. Their Live series, known for being arcadey as opposed to 2K simulation-heavy NBA 2K series, has suffered in terms of popularity.
Last year a petition was even mounted against EA for what gamers perceived to be ineptitude in developing basketball games. Sadly, when the NBA game is off, the college game suffers as well, and that seems to be the case for March Madness 08, which winds up being vastly inferior to 2K's College Hoops 2K8. March Madness gives a valiant attempt, but their game isn't as cohesive as College Hoops.
Visually, March Madness is a very pretty game. The animations are all very well done, creating the illusion of actual players making actual movements. However, March Madness, even with its good animations, is still light years behind the more fluid and realistic animations of College Hoops. While March Madness' players do animate well, they don't seem as fluid or as flexible as the players from 2K's game. The players feel a little sluggish, which is odd considering that EA's basketball games are known for having a far more arcadey feel than others. If having fast-paced arcade basketball is your claim to fame, your game's pacing should reflect that. On the other end, the sound effects are all pretty good, although the announcers can regularly find themselves out of sync with the court action, sometimes predicting or lagging behind events on the court by long seconds.
One of this year's additions is a revamped post play. All basketball games have trouble recreating the incredible variety of options available to any baller at any particular time, and never is this more evident than in the post. A skilled player can pass, shoot, hook, dunk, dribble, lay-up, or any number of other things from a triple threat position inside. Most basketball games decide for you what move your player will perform based on his position, ability, and movements, but EA attempted to give the player more control with their new post-play moves. Conversely, the defensive player can alternate defensive stances, limiting the options available to the offensive player. The post play works like a mini-war of sorts between the opponents, a quick strategy match to gain position to either score or prevent the scoring. The addition is really good in theory and is a step in the right direction, although there is room for improvement in increasing the options available and making the system feel a little more open.
A major game flaw comes in the dribbling system. EA has implemented the ability to perform fancy dribble maneuvers for years and actually led the innovation. Before EA shifted control of the dribble to the right analog stick, most dribble moves were performed with the touch of a button. However, as intuitive as using the right stick can be, it is far too easy for the showboating dribbler to find themselves out of bounds. The ease with which you can lose control of a dribbler nearly negates the effectiveness of being able to directly control the dribble maneuvers.
March Madness also has a Lockdown mode, which is similar to 2K's defensive locking feature, although Lockdown is much improved. Lockdown allows the defending player to lock onto a ballhandler and pressure him with a far more physical style of defense.


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Diana Reiss, renowned cognitive psychologist and dolphin researcher, recently filmed a TED Talk featuring our pod of Atlantic bottlenose dolphins!
Diana joined Neil Gershenfeld, Director, MIT Bits and Atoms Lab; Peter Gabriel, singer, songwriter and producer; and Vint Cerf, credited as co-founder of the internet and currently CEO of the Association for Computing Machinery, the world's largest and most prestigious scientific and educational computing society. Watch their full talk here:
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGMLhaa98GI]
The main objective of creating an "interspecies internet" would be to promote increased choice and control for animals through the use of technology. This concept for an interactive internet effectively links people to other animals through live or online experiences. It would create a new network and set of technologies that would carry science, welfare and conservation-related information, ideas and messages into the future.
Diana specifically touched on the cognitive intelligence of dolphins and how they communicate – a topic she's been researching here at the Aquarium! To learn more about Diana's recent discoveries while working with our dolphins, check out this interview she recently recorded with our CEO John Racanelli for A Blue View.
The next big piece of this "interspecies internet" will involve the creation of a touchscreen keyboard. Diana will then study how our dolphins interact with this keyboard, using the information gathered to add to the conversation about these amazing animals and how they communicate.
Tell us your reaction to this idea of an "interspecies internet" in the comments section!


text: Richard J. "Dick" Durbin is a Democratic U.S. senator for Illinois. He was elected in 1996, replacing retiring Sen. Paul Simon. Durbin has supported issues such as abortion rights, environmental protection and the DREAM Act for immigrants. Durbin is a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, as well as the Appropriations, Foreign Relations and rules committees. Before joining the Senate, he served in the House from 1983 to 1997, representing the 20th congressional district. Durbin was born in East St. Louis, Ill., in 1944. He received his bachelor's degree from Georgetown University in 1966, followed by a law degree in 1969. Durbin, who lives in Springfield with his wife, has two adult children and three grandchildren.


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These wool felt pom poms are as sweet as candy cane and look right at home amongst a Scandinavian style Christmas decor. The felt balls are tied together with a homespun jute string and are ready to hang on your Christmas tree.
The felt balls are very tactile to touch and hold. They also add lovely warmth and rustic Scandinavian feel to your home.
Each hanging ornament is approx 7cm wide/high (excluding the string). That's approx 2.4 inches. You also have a choice of either a set of 3 or a set of 6 ornaments to buy.
All UK orders will be sent by Royal Mail 1st class.
USA orders will be sent as a standard AIRMAIL. Upgrade for tracked services is available at the check out.
Rest of the World (including EU) the order will be sent out with a full tracking. This will be enclosed once the item has been dispatched.
Please note that while Royal Mail estimates delivery time for international orders to be approximately 7-10 days, items can be held in customs which can significantly delay the delivery (on a rare occasion).
All of the wool felt balls are ethically sourced from Nepal and as they are handmade, there may occasionally be a slight discrepancy between one felt ball and the next. This listing is for the felt balls only and any props used in the pictures are not included.
As wonderfully tactile as these are, it's necessary to remember that these are designed for decorative purposes only and needs to be kept out of the reach of young children and babies.
3-5 business days
I'll do my best to meet these shipping estimates, but can't guarantee them. Actual delivery time will depend on the shipping method you choose.
Buyers are responsible for any customs and import taxes that may apply. I'm not responsible for delays due to customs.
Just contact me within: 14 days of delivery
Ship items back to me within: 30 days of delivery
Request a cancellation within: 0 hours of purchase
But please contact me if you have any problems with your order.
Because of the nature of these items, unless they arrive damaged or defective, I can't accept returns for:
Buyers are responsible for return shipping costs. If the item is not returned in its original condition, the buyer is responsible for any loss in value.
Please contact me if you have any problems with your order.
Once you have placed an order, Etsy will send me your name and address details. They will also send your email address until further notice. I do not have access to your bank details, only if the payment was made through debit, credit or Paypal.
As above, Etsy collects this information.
I will use your name and address to fulfil your order. As a sole trader, I will also store the seller copy of your invoice for tax purposes. I may use your email address as a last resort if I fail to hear back from you through Etsy messages.
Your name and address will be shared with Royal Mail and other couriers when necessary. I will also pass on the invoices to my accountant for bookkeeping purposes. My accountant does not hold on to the invoices, they are returned to me.
I store all the sale invoices in a secured, locked filing cabinet. My personal work computer is password protected and so is my mobile phone. I do not use drop boxes or cloud to store information.
If you would like to request more information or have an action taken regarding your personal info, please do not hesitate to contact me. You can contact me through Etsy messages (this includes my website) or email me directly at firstname.lastname@example.com
I'll be happy to discuss any kind of custom order. In fact, I love custom orders! Just message me and I'll send you a non obligation quote.
All of the wool felt balls are ethically sourced from Nepal and as they are handmade, there may occasionally be a slight discrepancy between one ball and the next.
Please note that any props used in the pictures are not included.
Most countries outside of UK and EU have a delivery estimate approx 1-3 weeks. However, occasionally (but rarely) items can be held in customs for further 4-6 weeks.
Missing/delayed parcels won't be refunded/replaced until 13 working days has passed from the expected delivery due date.
Any missing parcels won't be refunded until 25 working days has passed from the shipping date. This is due to the Royal Mail and Ipostparcels policies.
Any missing/delayed parcels must be reported missing within 80 days from the date of shipping.
In the meantime, should your parcel be delayed, please contact me.
Please check your address is up to date. It is customer's responsibility to make sure it is correct. Any items sent to the address that hasn't been updated, won't be refunded. Items can be re-sent once Royal Mail has returned it back to me. The postage will be paid by the buyer.
INTERNATIONAL BUYERS: Please be aware that you will be responsible for any taxes, customs fees, or other amounts levied by your home country. Please check with your Customs office and/or Postal Service if you are concerned about possible tariffs.
I cannot mark any item as a 'gift' for customs purposes as this is illegal. All packages going through customs have to have the full price paid on the customs form by law.
I try my best to have a quick turn around for all orders, however I cannot guarantee your item will be delivered by Christmas as the postal service is already under extreme pressure. Please contact me if you'd like a quote for guaranteed next day delivery (UK) or Express Courier (International).
Please see the above Privacy Policy section.
I already use very little plastic in my packaging but I am aiming to reducing it down even further. Occasionally I may have to insert items in a plastic sleeve or use a poly envelope to seal the packaging properly but at most times, items will be sent in a fully recyclable manilla envelope or card board box.
If you have any wishes regarding the packaging, please let me know and I'll try my best to accommodate your request.
Nov 29, 2018
These are so great! The quality is terrific and they look exactly as they are pictured.


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Golden Gate + Sausalito
Highlights of the Golden Gate Bridge and Sausalito Tour:
• Fisherman's Wharf - Cannery: Cannery, Cable Car, Ghirardelli Square, Hyde Street Pier, Anchorage, Maritime Museum.
• Palace of Fine Arts: Marina District shopping and restaurants, Exploratorium, Marina, Presidio, Pacific Heights, Union Street shopping, Cow Hollow.
• Presidio: National Cemetery, Letterman Complex, Fort Point
• Golden Gate Bridge – south: walk the bridge! We'll pick you up at the other side.
• Golden Gate Bridge – Vista Point: Golden Gate Bridge views, Vista Point, Marin Headlands, Fort Baker.
• Sausalito - San Francisco Bay Views, restaurants, shopping, galleries, transfer to Muir Woods Tour.
Visit one of the world's most famous landmarks on our open top bus with live narration from our professional tour guides.
Click here or a Tour Map !
The Golden Gate and Sausalito tour lasts approximately 90 minutes and departs from our Fisherman's Wharf location and heads to the Palace of Fine Arts for a brief photo stop. From here we head towards the Golden Gate Bridge, passing Crissy Fields and then crossing the 1.7 mile span of the Golden Gate Bridge. Our bus will stop at the North Vista Point for a 10 minute photo stop where you can get great pictures of Alcatraz and the San Francisco skyline. From there we will venture to the picturesque coastal town of Sausalito.
Feel free to hop-off in Sausalito and wander the streets of boutiques and art galleries, taste some true California cuisine or maybe even rent a kayak and paddle through the bay! When you are ready to head back to San Francisco, take one of our open top buses back across the Golden Gate Bridge and explore the Presidio National Park and the mansions of Pacific Heights. The bus will then return you to our Fisherman's Wharf location where you can join one of our many other tours.
Golden Gate (Bridge)/ Sausalito Loop Schedule:
Monday - Thursday - Every Hour
Friday - Sunday - Every 30 minutes
Book this San Francisco bus tour today!


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HARMAN's JBL Loudspeakers Take Flight at University of Rhode Island's Swan Hall
LAS VEGAS, Nevada - Leading systems integration firm HB Communications recently upgraded the audio system at the University of Rhode Island's Swan Hall with a variety of HARMAN's JBL loudspeakers. Located in the heart of New England, the University of Rhode Island (URI) offers students a wide variety of educational opportunities and a choice of more than 80 different majors. URI's Swan Hall is a focal point for the study of English, modern and classical languages, literature and film media. However, its audio and video facilities were in severe need of upgrading by the time the 2011 school year ended.
"Swan Hall had an outdated audio and video system," said Jim Smith of HB Communications. "We were asked to do a complete overhaul. However, the shape of the room and the layout of the seating caused us to make some inordinate speaker and placement choices. The JBL CBT100LA column speakers and Control 67 HC/T pendant speakers proved to be the perfect solutions."
Swan Hall is a wide, flat room that has about 200 seats in 11 tiered rows, with a sloped floor, making the seating higher in the back of the hall than in the front. However, the ceiling remains at the same height-which means that the people sitting in the back of the room have their heads closer to the ceiling than the people in the front.
"The loft ceiling was also a potential acoustical nightmare," Smith noted. "It was completely bare with exposed trusses and duct work and no type of acoustic treatment-even a typical dropped ceiling would have reduced the amount of echo and reflections considerably."
Smith deployed two JBL CBT100LA column speakers-one on each side of the projection screen located at the stage area at the front of Swan Hall. "The narrow column design and the tight pattern control of the CBT100LA allowed us to direct the acoustic energy straight back to the seating, as opposed to a typical speaker that would have a much wider dispersion pattern and would not work nearly as well," Smith said. "The CBT100LA has a narrow vertical and wide horizontal coverage pattern that allowed us to direct the sound into the seating area without going into the ceiling loft above, which would have caused a lot of problematic reflections."
To tackle the challenges of the sloping floor and the difference in ceiling height between the front and the back of the room, HB Communications chose to augment the system with the JBL Control 67 HC/T pendant speakers. "We realized the Control 67 HC/T pendant speakers were the ideal solution because they have a narrow down-firing dispersion pattern and can be hung from a ceiling, so we were able to place them in three rows of four speakers each, suspended above the seats," Smith noted. "This allowed us to precisely control the sound coverage and direct the sound exactly to where we wanted into the seating area, without putting any sound into that echo-prone ceiling loft. This configuration also enabled us to achieve a good balance between the stage area and front seats, and the rest of the hall."
Swan Hall is used as a classroom and lecture hall and also for film studies, so the University wanted a sound system that could be used for both applications and was within a reasonable budget. To reproduce the full-range audio required of movie soundtracks, HB Communications augmented the main speakers with a pair of JBL ASB6115 front-firing 15-inch subwoofers, mounted from the ceiling to the left and right of the projection screen and the CBT100LA speakers. The CBT100LA speakers and ASB6115 subwoofers are driven by Crown Audio XLS2500 amplifiers, while the Control 67 HC/T speakers are powered by Crown CTs4200 amps.
"We used the Crown amps because they have onboard digital signal processing that lets us optimize the performance of the loudspeakers and subwoofers," Smith pointed out. "Because the ceiling is flat and the seating is tiered, the pendant speakers at the back of the hall are closer to the listeners' ears than the speakers at the front of the hall. The DSP in the Crown amps enabled us to make adjustments for each row so the sound stays consistent for everyone."
"The University of Rhode Island is very happy with the results," concluded Smith. "In fact, when we finished the installation we demoed it by playing a live version of the Eagles' 'Hotel California'-and it wowed everyone."
As the largest university in the smallest state, the University of Rhode Island is known regionally and worldwide for its innovative, big ideas, adaptive intelligence and breakthrough solutions to today's puzzling problems. URI's pioneering research extends the University's influence well beyond its coastal borders, while its unique interdisciplinary courses provide its 16,000 undergraduate and graduate students with global opportunities in an intimate environment.
HARMAN (www.harman.com) designs, manufactures and markets a wide range of audio and infotainment solutions for the automotive, consumer and professional markets - supported by 15 leading brands, including AKG(r), Harman Kardon(r), Infinity(r), JBL(r), Lexicon(r) and Mark Levinson(r). The Company is admired by audiophiles across multiple generations and supports leading professional entertainers and the venues where they perform. More than 25 million automobiles on the road today are equipped with HARMAN audio and infotainment systems. HARMAN has a workforce of about 13,000 people across the Americas, Europe and Asia, and reported net sales of $4.3 billion for the twelve months ended March 31, 2012.


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Overcome your fear and barriers at TEDx event April 1103/12/2014
Speakers from around the United States will share their backgrounds and perspectives and will challenge audiences to push the limits and break down the barriers during TEDxUniversityofAkron from 1 to 4 p.m. Friday, April 11 in the Goodyear Auditorium of the Goodyear Polymer Building.
Speakers include a Disney Imagineer, an impetuous world traveler, a cartoonist, a revolutionary teacher and a young entrepreneur. Speaker profiles.
The theme for TEDxUniversityofAkron's first event is "Why Not?"
"This half-day will inspire, motivate and encourage attendees to ask them 'Why not?' on a daily basis," says Kristen Wertz, a UA student and one of the event planners.
TEDxUniversityofAkron is completely student produced.
"As a student organization, we are taking many steps to give all students the chance to get involved," Wertz said. "Marketing plans through print and social media have been put into place to let students know about this exciting event for students run by students."
Participation is limited to the campus community. Tickets are $5 and can be purchased online today.
Learn more about the event via its website, on Facebook and Twitter.


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A new website has been activated that will follow where RAOGK(Random Acts of Genealogical Kindness) went. Working with Dale Schneider, husband of RAOGK's late founder, Bridgett Schneider, the group was led by Mark Rabideau who did the organizing and programming, take a look at www.generousgenealogists.com. There are already some volunteers listed and many more are needed. For both accuracy and privacy reasons, the original RAOGK's volunteer database was not used, so if you were listed before, you need to sign up on the new site. If you weren't listed before and can do a lookup near where you live, your are invited to sign up. If you are in need of a lookup, check out the growing database of volunteers.
To access the volunteer database or to sign up, go the www.generousgenealogists.com and click on Volunteers.
Souce: Email from pkathy98 at firstname.lastname@example.com.
Thanks to our society secretary, Shirley Patrick, for calling this to our attention to share here.
Filed under: Resources | Tagged: generousgenealogists.com, Patrick |


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Move Any Log
With minimal power, disturbance and effort
Log ArchesOur log arches are the most effective, ergonomic and useful tools for low impact forestry, arborist and portable sawmill applications. Log arches allow for low impact operations in sensitive areas, minimal ground disturbance and clean logs for portable sawmilling. These log arches are proprietary products in production since 1996. Originally manufactured for Future Forestry Products, Inc. and now manufactured and distributed by LogRite Tools. LogRite continues to lead the industry for design and development of state of the art, progressive equipment for selective harvesting, thinning, log and material handling for forest land owners, arborists and sawyers.
We can move any log, anywhere, any size and on any slope.


text:
Why sell to the government?
Discover the potential benefits of expanding your market and becoming a government supplier.
Fair business practices
Even if your business is new or small, you still have a chance of winning a contract with a government body, because government purchases are subject to laws, regulations, policies, and must meet trade obligations. The bid or proposal that you submit will be evaluated and scored based on predetermined criteria and compared to the scores of your competitors.
Different governments may have different policies; for example, the Government of Canada must procure goods and services in a way that:
- Enhances access and competition
- Treats industry fairly
- Gets the best value for Canadians
Large market
The Government of Canada alone spends over fifteen billion dollars a year on goods and services. Add to that the amount spent by each and every municipal, provincial and territorial government with whom you could be doing business, and you have quite a large market! You can even extend your business overseas and export your goods and services to foreign governments.
With the government being such a large potential market, why don't all businesses target it? It is most likely because of the regulations and activities that surround the procurement process, such as:
- Registering in specific vendor databases
- Watching for 'call to tenders' or 'request for proposals'
- Bidding on jobs or preparing detailed proposals
- Providing detailed updates or progress reports on large jobs
It will be up to you to decide if doing business with the government is a good fit for your business.
Wide range of opportunities
Governments buy a wide range of products and services. Such procurement needs range from buying office supplies to contracting for the construction of hydro-electric power stations. Therefore, there is a good chance that your company's line of business matches up with a government procurement need.
Trusted status
Apart from the financial benefits, your business could gain status and recognition as a supplier to a government body. Being a supplier to government tends to carry some weight with regard to credibility and competency when dealing with other local, national and international markets. It can be time-consuming to deal with the complex regulatory nature of fulfilling government contracts. However, your business' reputation might benefit from proving that you can meet requirements, deadlines, and terms and conditions of delivery.
Increased marketplace knowledge
Other benefits that may emerge from government contract experience include:
- A better appreciation of market trends (standards, requirements, and so on)
- The possibility of identifying and rating your competition
- The possibility of identifying mid-term and long-term strategic opportunities
Participating in public markets can provide you with key marketplace information that can help your business.
- Date modified:


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FOCA is an interesting penetration testing tool that allows you to find out more about a website by (amongst other things) analysing the metadata in any documents it makes available.
The process is surprisingly easy. Simply create a new document pointing FOCA at your website, click the Search All button, and FOCA will display all the PDF, Microsoft Office, Open Office and other documents on the site that have been indexed by Google, Bing and Exalead. (Which can be useful in itself, as you might discover you're exposing documents that were never intended for public view.)
Then, in a couple of clicks, you can have FOCA download these documents, extract their metadata, and summarise the results in a simple report. Exactly what might be exposed depends on the documents, what's been used to create them, and how well they've been cleaned, but commonly you'll see user names, network folders, printer names, email addresses, details on the software that's been used to create the files, and more - all very useful for hackers who might be looking to discover more about a particular target.
If you find your documents give away more information than you'd like, then check the creating software for tools that might be useful (search for keywords like Document Inspector or "metadata" in Office 2010, say).
Or, if you run your own IIS-based server, the FOCA authors also produce a program that may be of interest: MetaShield Protector. This cleans documents before they're sent to the client, so there's never any danger of information leaks.
A quick and easy way to analyse the metadata found in any website's documents


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Ismail Khatib in Heart of Jenin.
After his young son Ahmad was shot and killed by Israeli forces in the Jenin refugee camp in 2005, Ismail Khatib was propositioned by the Israeli doctor treating his son: would Ismail wish that his son Ahmad's organs be donated to children (in Israel) who needed them? After some deliberation — including consulting his wife, the leader of an armed resistance group in the camp, as well as an Islamic authority — Ismail agreed to have his son's organs donated.
Read The Rest Here (Electronic Intifada)
Maureen Clare Murphy, The Electronic Intifada, 23 April 2009
Posts tagged ahmed khatib
Film review: Kindness as vengeance in "Heart of Jenin" (IE)
April 24, 2009 · Filed under ahmed khatib, electronic intifada, Film, In the Heart of Jenin, Islamic Authority, ismael khatib, Jenin Refugee Camp, killed by the IDF, Movie, organ donation · Tagged 2005, 2009, ahmed khatib, armed resistance group, electronic intifada, falasteen, falasteeni, heart of jeinin, idf kills, Islamic Authority, ismael khatib, israel, israeli, Jenin Refugee Camp, maureen clare murphy, organ donation, Palestine, Palestinians, refugee camp
Ismail Khatib in Heart of Jenin.


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On the iPhone it'll just take a picture of it for you.
Lol u came in here just to say that? My Palm Pre with webOS just does it too...
thanx...haven't even rooted my incredible yet, or really looked into it at all
what are the main benefits other than being able to workm with some of the files on the phone that you otherwise can't, and being able to install paid apps for free?
can i uninstall skype, and slacker radio when rooted?
U can technically install paid apps for free without root but it sucks. Most apps are cheap & if you do install pirated ones u will have to always go n find it again to update it when the developer has a update.
Yea u can uninstall pretty much anything, Overclock your phone, Customize how everything looks, tether for free, lots of stuff
Edited by Draztik Rhymez, February 21, 2011 - 12:14 PM.


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Lawyers and politicians - you gotta love 'em.
Despite assurances by proponents of the then-proposed Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act that the health care mandate was not a tax - including resounding statements from President Obama himself - the administration was successful Thursday in its legal assertion that, well, it really is a tax after all.
A sharply split Supreme Court ruled that the penalty portion of the mandate is, in fact, a tax and so constitutional.
Those who opt out of the plan - or can't afford it, even with government subsidies plucked from the pockets of other taxpayers - are now looking at a new tax the Congressional Budget Office has estimated will be $695 per uninsured adult, or 2.5 percent of family income up to $12,500 per year. At present, the tax/nee fine will come from federal tax refunds, assuming one has a refund due.
Businesses that don't provide insurance to employees are looking at a new tax/nee penalty of $2,000 per.
Whether you think "Obamacare" is long overdue or a costly debacle that needs to be repealed, let's be honest with those required to pay the freight.
When the government imposes payment, be it a fee, a "contribution," or a penalty, it's a tax.
That was, in fact, the linchpin of the administration's argument as to the health care plan's constitutionality, and it is the bedrock of the Supreme Court's 5-4 finding.
While we're demanding honesty, let's go one step further - and nearly 77 years back.
"Social insurance," aka the Social Security Act passed in August 1935, went through a similar challenge and prevailed for much the same reason.
And, like the lawyers and politicians of today, proponents of Roosevelt's reform back in the day argued social benefit, a tax on the workforce so that basic needs might be provided for when needed without burdening the taxpaying public as a whole.
Passage of the Social Security Act "...marked a great advance in affording more equitable and effective protection to the people of this country against widespread and growing economic hazards," President Roosevelt told Congress and his fellow Americans.
Today, Washington politicians call the fruits of that tax workers and employers are required to pay, at amounts mandated by the government under the full penalty of the law, an "entitlement."
An entitlement.
As if the expectation that government programs will work as promised, at the price that was promised, is somehow unreasonable.
Or unrealistic.
As, we have seen, it all too often is.
- Citizen editorial


text: We have been gearing up for some time to get ready to rebuild the thumbnails for over 2.5 million images that you've all uploaded over the years so that they are a much higher quality for the new website design that we've been working on.We kicked off this rebuilding process at the start of last week, and it is now complete. The higher quality thumbnails may take some time to filter down through our various CDN providers as they are heavily cached. Some of you may have noticed over the last few weeks a few subtle changes that we've made to the way thumbnail images are displayed on the website. Every thumbnail should now be scaled to the correct ratio and size for each place it is displayed on the website to accommodate this increase in size and quality.These new thumbnails look great on the new responsive design we've got coming - the old thumbnail size was simply too small to use in any modern design.The rebuilding of the site's thumbnails is almost entirely seamless - however there is one area that you may want to check on: if you've uploaded images to your mods - any images that have been cropped to make custom thumbnails will have been replaced with a higher quality original thumbnail - unfortunately we don't have any way of rebuilding cropped thumbnails to a higher quality, so if you want to then you can jump into your mod page right now, and re-crop your images.Going forward, the new website layout will work best if the images you upload are 16:9 - so if you are uploading new images now and you want to be future proof we highly recommend using that ratio.


text: High Street Hymns to perform one night only at Mt. Airy Presbyterian Church Posted on November 1, 2012 by Sue Ann Rybak For one night only, High Street Hymns, an emerging leader in the new hymns movement, will give a concert on Sunday, Nov. 4, 6 p.m., at Mt. Airy Presbyterian Church, 13 E. Mt. Pleasant Ave. (at Germantown). High Street Hymns, a worship band with a "folk-rock-soul feel," began as an outgrowth of the music ministry of Anglican College Ministry at the University of Virginia. More information at www.mtairypres.org or 215-913-1421.


text:
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Stop choosing to be frustrated. Having several lead management consoles at once is so last year. Our CRM is here to be your one and only. You can now manage incoming leads from multiple sites without the hassle of dancing around the 'web' like Charlotte.Next
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Cutting-Edge. Strategically-Driven. Breathtaking.
You've seen websites before, but not like this. The Dakno Creative Team specializes in mobile compatible design that not only excites visually, but also drives leads to your front door. You can't beat beauty and brains.
- Engagement Focused
Design built with functionality in mind. It's what potential leads want, when they want it, where they want it - laptop, tablet or on their phone. It's elegance with direction.
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The Dakno Creative Team lives to make you stand out from the rest of the crowd. This is what we do. Bottom line.
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Let your visitors control their own destiny by giving them the ability to search for listings in your MLS board. Power to the people.
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Receive a lead when a visitor requests a showing or even saves a search. Sorry Lassie, but this is an agent's best friend.
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Organic SEO doesn't like iframes and neither do we. They've never been our style. We make sure your site is the belle of the ball.
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Don't let your leads go cold. As you get new listings that match their search criteria, they'll receive an email heads up. That's love.
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Phone: 503-823-7700
Curbside Hotline: 503-823-7202
1900 SW 4th Ave, Suite 7100, Portland, OR 97201
Phone: 503-823-7700
Curbside Hotline: 503-823-7202
1900 SW 4th Ave, Suite 7100, Portland, OR 97201
On Nov. 15, 2012, City Council voted unanimously to approve the expansion of the City's plastic bag ban to include all retailers and restaurants by October 2013. The expansion takes a phased approach to banning all single-use plastic checkout bags in Portland and builds on the 2011 ordinance that banned plastic bags in grocery stores and large pharmacies.
The first phase of the expansion goes into effect on March 1, 2013, and includes retail establishments and food providers with stores greater than 10,000 square feet. All other retail establishments or food providers will be required to provide only recycled paper bags or reusable bags at checkout by Oct. 1, 2013. View the letter about the expansion of the bag ban that businesses received in early February 2013.
The approved expansion will even the playing field and ensure that all retailers and food providers be subject to the same regulation. As a result, fewer unnecessary plastic checkout bags will litter Portland's neighborhoods and natural areas. Portland joins other cities — including Corvallis, Eugene, San Francisco, Seattle and Austin — in banning all retailers and restaurants from distributing single-use plastic bags.
In the past year since the initial ban went into effect, we've seen a 300 percent increase in reusable bag use. It's clear that many Portlanders have already made the switch to reusable bags. Read the full ordinance here.
Plastic grocery and shopping bags may offer short-term convenience, but they have long-term costs.
Tips for switching to reusable shopping bags
Documents relating to City Council actions


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I break down reviews into three categories
- Professional industry giants
- Internet bloggers
- Readers
Professional industry giants
The first group includes sites such as Publishers Weekly, Kirkus Reviews, Library Journal, Booklist, Publishers Weekly, Foreword Magazine and the like. These organizations require galleys or ARC's (Advanced reading copies and generally need them 4 – 5 months before release date as they are still produced in print and the magazine closes 2 or more months before the issue is to hit the street. These publications have limited space, and so for the most part focus on releases from large publishers. If you are published through a big-six, you don't have to worry about submitting to these organizations as the marketing and public relations department will handle this for yourself. If you are from an independent press, or self-published your chances of getting reviewed are slim. For the most part Ridan does not delay the release of a title for these. On a few occasions, when authors have asked us to we've submitted. For instance Leslie Ann Moore received (from her previous publisher) reviews by both Publisher's Weekly and Library Journal. Midwest Book Review is known for being more small press friendly" and if you follow their submission guidelines to identify your works as such you have a good chance of being reviewed by them.
Internet Bloggers
Internet Bloggers are extremely influential, and getting a review from them will result in many people hearing about your book since they are in the business of telling others what books are good to read. I attribute a great deal of Ridan's success in our ability to obtain reviews for our authors. I suggest the following approach. Compile a list of bloggers that write reviews for your genre. The list will grow quickly as most bloggers have a blog role of sites similar to their that they also follow. I personally have a spreadsheet of nearly 800 reviewers that lists their sites down the left side and in each column I record information such as whether they tweet or not, how many posts they had in 2010, how many in 2011, Number of followers, date added to the spreadsheet, date of last post, and on and on. One important aspect I check is "cross-pollination" between the sites. For instance Floor to Ceiling Reviews is followed by sites such as Fantasy Book Critic, A Dribble of Ink, Bookworm Blues, Stopping on Yeti, and many others. This shows me they are writing reviews that peer reviewers read and respect. When I first started out getting reviews for Michael I started with some smaller blogs. Many of these sites do reviews from books they buy themselves so they are delighted when someone offers to send them a free review copy. (As mentioned in my last post you never pay for a review but you should send a book in whatever format the blogger requests (printed or ebook) at your own expense.
Even smaller bloggers have huge demands on their time as everyone these days have huge TBR (to be read) piles. In order to get your review to the top of the list you need to query them professionally. I use Google Docs to make an Ad for the book with a headline, picture of the cover and teaser copy. For instance this is what the email looks like for my husband's first book: The Crown Conspiracy:
The above is just a template, but I individual the introduction for each person I send it to. You should approach querying bloggers, just as you would agents. Don't send mass blasted emails for requests. Check their website to determine their submission requirements, personalize to them, and let them know you value your time by researching their stated preferences. Once you get a few solid reviews under your belt, you can start querying larger and more influential sites, you'll even find that if you generate enough buzz reviewers will start seeking you out.
Some bloggers specifically say they won't accept books that are self-published. They have been burned by books of low professional quality which have little to no editing. Assuming you've put out a good book, and have gotten others to review it, they will often bend that rule for you. One of the things I've added in my redesign of this site is a great Reference Page. On it you'll find a list of review sites (and links to lists of sites) that welcome reviews from self-published authors.
With sites such as GoodReads, Library Thing, Shelfari, and Amazon, readers love telling others about the books they've read. Many blogger mention on their sites that they not only post the review on their site, but also Amazon and Goodreads as well. Targeting these people is important as you get three reviews from a single reading.
The biggest obstacle for new authors is establishing third-party validation and the number of reviews on sites like this establish a following and give new readers the confidence to give someone that they've not heard of before a try.
Here are some numbers from two of Ridan's most well reviewed authors: Michael J. Sullivan and Nathan Lowell. With over 2,000 ratings for Michael and 1,100 ratings for Nathan, they have established themselves as quality story tellers.
Don't be afraid to ask your readers for assistance. When you receive a fan mail singing your praises, or see someone give a high rating of one of your books via Goodreads mention that you're glad they enjoyed the work, and if they would like to help others to take a chance and give your stories a try to please post a review on Amazon or add commentary to a ranking on Goodreads. Explain that they do not have to write full reviews – just a few sentences explaining why they liked the book. Also be sure to mention that any reviews helps and good, bad, or indifferent all you really want from them is a fair assessment.
While we're on the subject, a bad or so-so review will actually help you. When readers see only 4 and 5 star reviews they come away with the impression that the posters are friends or relatives of the authors. Having a variety of opinions helps to ensure that the sampling reflects real reading habits. No book is universally liked by everyone, and a few detractors that make the overall number higher are better than less reviews which are all singing your praises. Not everyone is going to find your book "their cup of tea".
That being said, you can improve your changes by finding people who like books similar to your own. In the past, I've used Amazon to find "first readers". Many of the reviewers post their email addresses as part of their profile. Since you already know they like the type of book you've written your chances are better of receiving a positive review.
What not to do
As mentioned in yesterday's post. You should never pay for a review. It completely undermines your credibility. Again, as I mentioned I found a book similar to Michael's that had a good review by someone called Geri Ahern. When I goggled her to find an email address, I found a blog where she reviews book for a fee. I immediately felt less of the book, not only because I couldn't trust the review, but it exposed the desperation of the author.
Speaking of desperation, don't post a review of your own work when you have only a few reviews. It is seen as a blatant attempt to bolster your numbers. Once you have many reviews you can go post on your book – not so much for review – but to give you an opportunity to talk to potential readers about the story behind the book. What your motivation was, were you looking for light and fun, dark and gritty, realistic, fantastical, etc. etc. Use it as an opportunity to show a bit of yourself. Readers want to connect with authors.
Along that same line, my standard response was never to comment back on a review. Awhile ago, as Michael's following grew, I encouraged him to start posting comments to thank people for helping to spread the news. Many came back completely amazed that an author would take the time to respond. It impressed the heck out of them, and you can be sure they've mentioned it to a friend when recommending your book. But of course it goes without saying that you should never, ever, berate someone who gives you a bad review. Take the high ground. Thank them for taking the time to share their opinion and tell them that you're sorry the book didn't resonate with them. NEVER try to convince them their opinion was wrong or unfounded.
One last thing to avoid is the exchange of reviews with other authors. Again, in the beginning you are so desperate for numbers you might think doing so would be a great win-win for you and the other author. The reality is it is a land mind of problems. What if you don't like their book? What if you don't like theirs? Do you risk your own credibility by saying something that is junk is wonderful? Do you refuse to post and get the author mad such that he leaves a negative review in response? Many authors form friendships with other authors through networking. As such, they sometimes read someone else's book either out of curiosity or just in a desire to support their writing. If you do this, and you like it then certainly post an honest review to help them out. But don't ever do it with the expectation of reciprocation.
Well, that's my little lesson 101 on reviews. I hope you founding something in here that will help you in your own writing. And in keeping with my statements above, if you have read any Ridan book and enjoyed it, then please take just a minute to stop by the author's Amazon page and leave a comment. Again, even if you didn't like the book, adding another "count to the tally" and expressing an honest opinion is always appreciated.


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Find the perfect hotel in Scotts Valley using our hotel guide provided below. Search for the cheapest discounted hotel and motel rates in or near Scotts Valley, CA for your upcoming personal or group trip. We show the best Scotts Valley California hotel rooms. Review the Scotts Valley hotel list below to find the perfect lodging. We also have a map of the Scotts Valley hotels. Coordinating a group? Get Scotts Valley Group Hotel Discounts
The Scotts Valley center point is around 2 miles north of Mystery Spot and 3 miles east of Roaring Camp Railroads.
How should we direct your call?
Below are reviews of the city of Scotts Valley, CA from an actual visitor's perspective.
Scotts Valley is close enough to Santa Cruz, but without all the traffic. It's tucked away with fresh forest air and within a close drive to the beach.