text:
Reality TV bestows upon the viewing public a glut of entertainments: dancers portraying flitting hummingbirds trying to seduce a blooming flower; entrepreneurs who've found an extra use for pillow cases by making them into dresses; adventurers threatening to urinate on rice (and beans); even four of music's top performers swirling in big red chairs. And the ratings come pouring in. The Envelope gathered four faces of reality TV (some of whom double as executive producers) — Carson Daly of NBC's "The Voice," Cat Deeley of Fox's "So You Think You Can Dance," Jeff Probst of CBS' "Survivor" and Mark Cuban of ABC's "Shark Tank" — to talk about longevity in the genre, the push and pull of dealing with contestants and the waning power of "American Idol."
(This transcript of the discussion, held at the Times on May 2, has been edited for length.)
You guys are the faces of some pretty popular shows on TV right now. What do you think it is about your shows that audiences have connected with?
Jeff Probst: Its format, usually — the star of "Survivor" is the format. It works. It works all over the world. Same with "Shark Tank," which we watch every Friday night with our kids. You guys disagree?
Mark Cuban: No. No. I agree.
You Can Dance?"
Cat Deeley: I also think that the format can completely change. What people really connect with are the human stories. It's the human elements. It's the "will they/won't they." It's the, "Can they do it?" It's the, "Will we make it to the next…?"
Carson Daly: You know what it is? It's the authenticity.
Deeley: Yes. Absolutely.
Daly: We love your show because there really was this authenticity to it. You know? And for "The Voice," we almost took a page from that. In our early production meetings, it was, "We want to be authentic and credible," are two big words that we threw around. And that's really what you guys do.
Jeff, you're going on 26 seasons, and you're currently in it.
Probst: It's incredible.
Deeley: (gasps) 26? Oh, my God.
13 years. Two a year. Do you find it hard to find those authentic moments? When people audition now, aren't they savvy to what you guys are expecting?
Probst: Yeah, but your job is to weed out who's putting you on and find the real deal. All these shows to some degree or another have their system, whether it's psych testing or whether it's the way you interview them and how often and when. And you get them where they're a little uneven so that you can make sure that you're getting the real deal. But I think the key to the longevity of Survivor is it's always the same, only different. It's that sweet spot. We never change the format, but we tweak it just enough that it's still familiar, but there's something new to do.
Daly: For us at "The Voice," I mean, it's a show that's done quite well for NBC Universal at a time when they've been struggling. And when they rolled it out to straddle their annual schedule, that was a point of contention for us as producers. Is it too much? Ironically enough, in today's — everybody's so thirsty for content. When we take our break now between fall and spring, it feels like what used to be the annual break. People are ready for it again. Out of sight, out of mind.
Deeley: We once did "Dance" twice in a year and, actually, it did hurt us because we have a smaller pool to draw on, you know what I mean, of trained dancers, that're able to do those kind of things. We struggled to get another set of people and it actually hurt us a little bit, weirdly.
Daly: At first, it's like, how big is the singing pool out there?
Probst: But what I like about "The Voice" is I don't actually think of it as a singing competition show. You guys know which pieces are in play, and you know how to utilize them in the best possible way. But I really don't care if the person ends up having a career. I'm not invested in them to become a star. I'm invested in the process of watching a dream be born or killed.
That's an interesting point about whether it's about the contestant's aspirations and their journey or if it's the success they've reached afterward. I mean, these kids don't get the hit records like "American Idol." What do you make of what people really should be focusing on?
Daly: Listen, it'd be nice if we had a show that produced, you know, hit records. But we don't obsess about it. At the end of the day, you've gotta make a television show and we've seen our ratings. You know, we did something by swapping two new coaches this year, which is pretty early on considering how successful we were last time. Pretty good sized gamble, although we knew we were gonna have to do it. We've got four coaches that aren't in the business of being TV personalities. They have day jobs of touring. So it was a good problem to have to have to swap them out. We did. The ratings are even higher. You have to make a television show too, and you want it to be good, strong, fun, smart, family entertainment that moves, has lots of different peaks of interest, has great talent. But, you know, you look at shows that might put out an artist that infiltrates pop culture and becomes a Top 10. But meanwhile, the ratings of their show are declining. So, you know …
Probst: Who are you talking about?
Daly: Well, I'm just saying. You could have one or the other. But I didn't mention any shows, and I'm not going to.
Probst: I'm going to challenge you. It's OK to say "American Idol," because "American Idol" has been the death star for a decade. It's wiped out more dreams because of its own power. It is inevitable it will begin to lose. "Survivor" is gaining on it, and we've been on 13 years.
Deeley: I also think it's very much down to the individual as well. And actually, there's a whole different reach they can take if they win. And some people want nothing more than to move back home and open a cute little dance studio and be near their family. And those are their aspirations. And then other people wanna go and do movies. And then someone else will wanna go on tour with Lady Gaga or go work in Broadway.
Daly: The question — what does successful mean? What is the litmus for success? How about just working. You know, how about that being successful?
Cuban: It is successful.
Daly: That should be one of the great prizes on one of these big shows is they get…
Cuban: They get a job, yeah.
Daly: …$1,000 and a job. Because they're hard to get.
Cuban: If you wake up with a smile on your face, looking forward to your day, you're successful. Period. End of story. I mean, when I was broke, sleeping on the floor, eating mustard and ketchup sandwiches, and coming home—the lights were turned off—I was still having a blast. Not as much fun as I'm having now, but I was still havin' a blast.
Are you cautious about being too sympathetic or too indifferent to contestants?
Deeley: I don't think you can ever be too sympathetic. The best thing you can possibly do is empathize, if you can put yourself into someone else's skin and feel how they feel. Because what tends to happen on our show is that in those moments, people do get nervous and they don't quite know what to say.
Daly: It makes a huge difference to have a host like Cat that does that. I mean, I wear an IFB [an intercom earpiece to communicte with the director]. I mean, there's business to take care of. But you're so in the moment and present with the person in front of you.
Cuban: Hey, I've been on the other side. I was on "Dancing With the Stars," and let me just tell you, walking out there for the very first time for my first dance. [Laughs.] So I can definitely empathize.
How did host Tom Bergeron make you feel?
Cuban: I didn't even know he was there. I was just terrified. The sweat was pouring down, and it was just all instinct.
Daly: Someone's crying in front of you. Someone's having an off moment. You have to be there for them.
Deeley: Also you have to have a great relationship with your producers and your director because I wear an IFB too, and it's very, very easy at certain moments for them to be like, "You need to go to this shot, and you need to wrap it up, and do these things." And so what's happening is you're being so distracted that you're not—I mean, I've seen it on other shows that maybe aren't doing so well. And they're being over produced. And the host is like this…
Daly: Inundated.
Deeley: They're like a rabbit in headlights, and they're not really listening to the person who's on their knees, crying on the floor.
Cuban: If they don't trust you, the show's not gonna work.
Daly: That's the reality competition part of it, because you have a reality show that's playing out with real-life emotions and things that Americans are keying off of. And they want to see those moments. What are you going to do next?
Cuban: Right. I hate the setup, I hate the setup.
Daly: That moment's got to be live. The competition part has to be when we get, you know, we have to set up the stakes. It's hard for the host to juggle that. It can be.
Deeley: And it just has to be trust, I think, with the producers and the directors at the same time, that you're in it and that they don't try and kill a moment.
Do you prep before the season starts or before each episode or both?
Daly: I do a radio show in the morning, and I always feel like even from when I was at MTV that I always felt sort of at the center of pop culture. It really becomes a lifestyle more than a job. There's prep when it comes to individual artists and knowing them. But I get so vested so quickly when we start shooting our season that I never feel like I'm doing homework. When I'm starting a season of "The Voice," and we call it friends and family, where I do four straight days. And I interview somewhere between 95 and 120 people and their families who have come here to Los Angeles. And you see snippets of that. I love it. I don't even need a piece of paper.
Deeley: I'm exactly the same. And it's also, I like people. And I like finding out about them. The only bit of prep I do actually is the technical stuff. So if we're doing a live show, and I need to know what cameras I'm on, and where I need to lay out my auto cue or write my script, that I'm a complete nerd about. I prep and I prep so that when I'm actually with somebody and I'm talking to them, and they're having a moment, I know what camera I'm going to next or how long I've got before this commercial break.
Probst: In terms of a hosting, I'm with these guys. I always get credit on "Survivor" for asking these great questions, but really, they tell you what to ask…
Deeley: If you listen.
Probst: …if you just pay attention and listen. It isn't always the question. It's listening to the answer. And that guides you on where you want to take the story. I couldn't do the show with an IFB. And on the second, on like, the third day I was on the island with [producer Mark Burnett] at the very beginning, he didn't even know what an IFB was then. But he said, "Hey Jeff, they've got these things out. You can put it in your ear, and I can talk to you." And I said, "Mark, please don't make me use an IFB because the way 'Survivor' seems like it's going to go is it's going to be really organic, and there's going to be the eight or nine people there. And you're going to want to go left, and I'm going to want to go right, and we're both going to end up at the same point." And there was a moment right after the second tribal council we ever did where he came after we were done. He said, "There was one question I wished you hadn't asked." And we were still so fresh. I don't know if you guys will appreciate this, but we were still so new, I said, "Mark, just give me a couple more episodes before you critique it. Let me find it. And he never said another word.
What is the secret there? Do you ever worry, do you feel like you're in safe hands? Do you ever worry that their attention's not fully with your show at a specific time?
Daly: Let me say two things about this as it pertains to a particular omnipotent producer like a Nigel [Lythgoe] or a Mark. When I first met Mark, I thought he was gonna be someone who was going to show up the first day and then I would never see him again because there's so many other show runners and producers. And that's not the case at all. I mean, he is all in, unless he's on location for "Survivor."
Probst: No. I can attest to this because you can't get Burnett on the phone to answer "Survivor" questions.
Cuban: Or any questions, yeah.
Probst: One of his many assistants called to say, "Right now he's on the set at 'The Voice.' I know!" The No. 1 show. The other thing is—I don't know how you guys feel about this, and I am certainly no barometer of reality—but it feels like reality is approaching a crossroads in which it has to evolve again.
Cuban: Of course.
Probst: And you look at these shows. They're all formats from other countries. You know, it feels like networks need to, we need to take a few more chances, break more formats here; rely less on focus groups. I was saying with somebody the other day that "Survivor," much like your show, Cat, "Survivor" was shot in a vacuum out in, over a summer in the South China Sea. And we came back, and we put it on, and the expectations were low. So nobody paid much attention. And then it was a hit, and it did OK. But in the very first reviews were: "People are too mean. Ooh, they ate a rat. These challenges are dumb. And get rid of the host." So all of those things are still on the show today. People are still mean at times; they still have these challenges; the host is still there. But if that show had been focused grouped, would "Survivor" have ever even made it onto the air?
Cuban: And look, we're on Friday nights. And up until "Shark Tank" really created a platform for Friday nights, Friday nights were a waste night. It meant they were just trying to fill space. And when "Shark Tank" started to build audience and build audience and build audience, now Friday nights started to become a family night. Now shows are starting to get platformed on Friday night. But to your point, Jeff, television, particularly broadcast television, is not a risk-driven business. It's a risk-aversion driven business, which is why you see a lot of formats from overseas.
We see how important Emmy nominations are to scripted TV, how does it play with reality TV?
Probst: I don't know that it really does matter. I don't know that it matters to the audience if a show wins in scripted either.
Cuban: No, there's no way it matters to the audience. And I mean, we got nominated [last year] because they switched us into a different non-competitive category. And we didn't win, unfortunately. But everybody on set was so excited. I was like, "OK." It doesn't matter to me, but I realized it mattered to everybody else.
Daly: That's because you're rich. Let's be honest.
Cuban: I still like to win. But it matters to everyone else's resume. And so it was important from that perspective.
Daly: In the television business, it is a big deal whether you won an Emmy or not. We got nominated last year. We were the only singing competition nominated, which, of course, the media made a big deal because of "Idol" and "X Factor." And "The Voice," this newbie show, was nominated. And we were all freaking out. I mean, we're like, "The Bad News Bears," we were stoked.
Probst: I thought your question was, "Does it impact a show?" And I don't think it does.
Cuban: It's going to get you more promotion from the network. They're going to want to say, "This is an Emmy Award-winning show."


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In the last installment, we calculated expressions for the normalized scale factors $\Delta_i$ that represent the effectiveness of a given stat at reducing damage taken. To finish the job, we need to calculate explicit expressions for the variables $\rho_h$, $\rho_e$, $\rho_s$, $\rho_m$, $\rho_x$, $\rho_d$, and $\rho_p$, which represent how a warrior's Shield Block cast rate varies with hit, expertise, haste, mastery, crit, dodge, and parry, respectively.
1. Rotation Modeling
The first step in this process is to determine exactly what the warrior rotation looks like. We can make a few assumptions here:
- The warrior dumps all of their rage into Shield Block
- We don't care about DPS, so we'll use the highest-rage-per-second rotation
The primary source of rage generation is Shield Slam (SS), which generates 10 rage. However, it generates 15 rage if cast during a Sword and Board (SnB) proc. So the rotation will revolve around maximizing SS casts. The most efficient way to do that is with a simple Priority: SS>Revenge>Devastate
In this model, we cast the abilities as soon as they're available, following the priority order given. If you do that, you can break the rotation down into four possible sub-sequences:
- 1: SS-Revenge
- 2: Devastate-SS-Revenge
- 3: Devastate-Devastate-SS-Revenge
- 4: SS(SnB)-Devastate-Revenge
This may look funny, but the idea is reminiscent of a Markov chain. Every time we cast Revenge, we get a branch, and #1-4 are the only four possible branches we can enter. For example, we always start with #1. If that Revenge triggers SnB, we always jump to #4 (SS-Rev-SS(SnB)-Dev-Rev), and if it doesn't we'll always jump to #3 (SS-Rev-Dev-Dev-SS-Rev). Thus, we can find the steady-state probability of each sequence occurring using the concept of Stochastic (or Markov) matrices. We construct our transition probability matrix P:
In this matrix, each element $P_{ij}$ represents the probability of transitioning from state $i$ to state $j$. To find the steady-state probabilities, we just calculate $P^k$ in the limit as $k \rightarrow \infty$. In fact, we don't even need to go very high in $k$ – the matrix $P^k$ is identical for $k>2$:
Thus, we have a 24% chance of being in state #2, a 16% chance of being in state #3, and a 60% chance of being in state #4. We can use this information to calculate the generated rage per second. State 2 generates 10 rage in 4.5 seconds, state 3 generates 10 rage in 6 seconds, and state 3 generates 15 rage in 4.5 seconds, giving a net Rage Per Second (RPS) of (10/4.5*0.24 + 10/6*0.16+15/4.5*0.60) = 2.8 rage per second. This is the maximum rage generation rotation for warriors now that Revenge has a 4.5-second cooldown.
There's an additional complication though – we haven't accounted for Revenge misses. That reduces the transition probability to state #4 from $0.6$ to $0.6(1-(\mu-h)-(d+p-e))$, and increases the other transition probabilities from $0.4$ to $1-0.6(1-(\mu-h)-(d+p-e))$. Here, $\mu$ is our base chance to miss (7.5% against a boss), $d$ and $p$ are our base chance to be dodged/parried, and $h$ and $e$ are our hit and expertise. Since this term in parentheses (which is our melee success probability) will show up fairly often, let's define a placeholder for it. While we're at it, we'll define one for our spell success probability ($1-(2\mu-h-e)$) as well:
$\Theta = (1-(\mu-h)-(d+p-e))$
$d\Theta = (dh+de)$
$\Theta_s = (1-(2\mu-h-e))$
$d\Theta_s = (dh+de) = d\Theta$
Once we include this, the steady-state probabilities are analytically:
$\Pi_2 = P^k_{i2} = (0.6 \Theta)(1- 0.6 \Theta)$
$\Pi_3 = P^k_{i3} = (1- 0.6 \Theta)^2$
$\Pi_4 = P^k_{i4} = 0.6 \Theta$
and their derivatives are
$d\Pi_2 = 0.6(1-1.2\Theta)d\Theta$
$d\Pi_3 = -1.2(1-0.6\Theta)d\Theta$
$d\Pi_4 = 0.6d\Theta$
We can then represent this rotation by writing down the cast rates for certain abilities.
1.1 Shield Slam cast rates
Starting with the highest priority, Shield Slam:
$R_{\rm SS} = R_{\rm rSS} + R_{\rm SnB}$
We've divided this up into rates for "regular" Shield Slams $R_{\rm rSS}$ and Sword and Board Shield Slams $R_{\rm SnB}$. By deconstructing the weighted average we used above, you can show that
$R_{\rm rSS} = \Pi_2/4.5+\Pi_3/6$
$R_{\rm SnB}=\Pi_4/4.5$.
We'll also want the variation of each of these terms, so let's calculate them right away:
$dR_{\rm rSS} = d\Pi_2/4.5+d\Pi_3/6 = d\Theta \chi_{\rm rSS}$
$dR_{\rm SnB} = d\Pi_4/4.5 = d\Theta 0.6/4.5 = d\Theta \chi_{\rm SnB}$
$dR_{\rm SS} = dR_{\rm rSS} + dR_{\rm SnB} = d\Theta \chi_{\rm SS}$
$\chi_{\rm rSS} = 0.6(1-1.2\Theta)/4.5 -1.2(1-0.6\Theta)/6$
$\chi_{\rm SnB} = 0.6/4.5$
$\chi_{\rm SS} = \chi_{\rm rSS}+\chi_{\rm SnB}$
1.2 Revenge cast rates
We can also quickly figure out Revenge's cast rate,
$R_{\rm R}=(\Pi_2+\Pi_4)/4.5+\Pi_3/6 = R_{\rm SS}$
using the same technique. Note that we're assuming here that Revenge is always available, which is a pretty safe assumption if you're tanking. It turns out we won't need either of these values, but they're good to have lying around. The derivatives of $R_{\rm R}$ are identical to that of $R_{\rm SS}$, so
$dR_{\rm R} = d\Theta \chi_{\rm R} = d\Theta \chi_{\rm SS}$.
1.3 Thunder Clap and Battle Shout cast rates
Devastate is a little trickier, because we'll be replacing some Devastate casts with Battle Shouts and Thunder Claps. So let's work out those first. Shout is easy – it's just
$R_{\rm shout} = 1/60$.
Thunder Clap is slightly trickier. Ideally, we would cast it every 30 seconds to keep up the Weakened Blows debuff. However, it's not automatic. If it misses, we'll cast it again as soon as it's available (6 seconds). So the proper way to write it would be:
$R_{\rm TC} = \frac{\Theta_s}{30}+\frac{1-\Theta_s}{6}\large$.
In other words, it's the weighted average based on hit/miss chances. Note that I've assumed it misses as a spell for this rather than as a melee strike. I'm not sure if this is correct, but it's easy to fix if we find out that assumption is wrong. This simplifies to
$R_{\rm TC} = 1/6 – (2/15)\Theta_s$,
and the derivative is
$dR_{\rm TC} = -\chi_{\rm TC}d\Theta\large$,
with $\chi_{\rm TC}=\frac{2}{15}$.
1.4 Devastate cast rates
Now for Devastate. In the scenarios above, we cast Devastate at a rate of
$R_{\rm D0}=(\Pi_2+\Pi_4)/4.5+2\Pi_3/6$,
with a derivative scaling of
$dR_{\rm D0} = \chi_{\rm D0}d\Theta$,
$\chi_{\rm D0} = 0.6(2-1.2\Theta)/4.5 – 1.2(1-0.6\Theta)/3$.
However, we need to subtract off to account for Thunder Clap and Battle Shout:
$R_{\rm D} = R_{\rm D0} – R_{\rm TC} – R_{\rm shout}$
From this we can immediately see that
$dR_{\rm D} = dR_{\rm D0}-dR_{\rm TC} = d\Theta(\chi_{\rm D0}-\chi_{\rm TC})$,
We could substitute in our expressions for $R_{\rm TC}$ and $R_{\rm shout}$, but that doesn't make the expression too much easier to work with, so we won't bother. At this point, we have a complete model of the warrior rotation.
If Shield Slam and Battle Shout were a warrior's only sources of rage, we'd be done here. Rage generation would simply be the rage from Shield Slams plus the rage from Battle Shouts minus the rage used to maintain The Clap. And that would be really simple. But we're not so lucky, because warriors also generate rage from auto-attacks. And that leads to a number of problems.
First, we need to accurately model melee swings, which means we need to care about parry-hasting. That's a non-trivial problem, and will be the focus of the second half of this post. The other issue is that Enrage increases rage generation from those auto-attacks during its effect, which means we need an accurate model of Enrage uptime. And to do that, we need to account for all sources of Enrage – critical strikes, critical blocks, and even the interaction of Ultimatum with Glyph of Incite. We'll deal with the Enrage modeling next time.
2. Parry Hasting
Parry-hasting as a mechanic can be extraordinarily complicated in the general case. I've worked on this problem before, and the matlab code has a function that specifically models parry-hasting. If we wanted to treat the problem completely generally, it wouldn't be possible to come up with a nice analytical formulation. However, we're going to limit our scope to a single situation – tanking a single raid boss – which makes it possible to analytically represent parry-haste.
The mechanics of parry-haste work like so: When you parry an attack, your swing timer is reduced by 40% of its un-hasted value, unless that would reduce the swing timer to below 20% of that un-hasted value, in which case it reduces the swing timer to 20% exactly. That's a little clumsy, so let's consider an example. If I have a 2.00-speed weapon, my swing timer is 2 seconds. If I parry the boss when there's 1.9 seconds left on my swing timer, it reduces my swing timer by 40% of 2 seconds, which is 0.8 seconds, leaving 1.1 seconds remaining on my swing timer. If I parry when there's 0.9 seconds left on my swing timer, it can't reduce my swing timer by the full 40% because that would drop itbelow the 20% threshold (which is 0.4 seconds). So instead, it drops the swing timer to 0.4 seconds exactly, giving me 0.5-seconds of parry-hasting (only 25%, instead of 40%). If I parry an attack when there's 0.4 seconds or less left on my swing timer, there's no effect at all.
Thus, the average amount of parry-haste you get from a single parry is 24%. There's an additional complication, which is something we call "Doubly Degenerate Parry Events" (DDPEs). This is when you parry two attacks in rapid succession, and that ends up causing some attrition in parry (the second parry is less effective, necessarily). However, we're going to consider a boss with a swing timer between 1.5 and 2.0 seconds, which eliminates the possibility of DDPEs. So we can ignore that problem.
Generally, one would represent parry haste by a set of coupled equations linking the boss attack rate $R_{\rm att}$ to the player auto-attack rate $R_{\rm AA}$. However, since bosses no longer benefit from parry-haste, the equations are considerably simplified, and the coupling is one-way:
$R_{\rm AA} = R_{\rm AA}^{(0)}(1+s)+cR_{\rm att}$
Here, $c$ is the coupling constant that represents the effect of parry-haste. If we ignore DDPEs, we can represent $c$ as:
$c = 0.24*{\rm binopdf}(1,1,P)*({\rm chance~of~1~attack~in~T_{\rm AA}}) \\ + 0.24*[1-{\rm binopdf}(0,2,P)-{\rm binopdf}(2,2,P)]*({\rm chance~of~2~attacks~in~T_{\rm AA}})$
To get some intuition here, ${\rm binopdf(k,N,P)}$ is the binomial probability distribution representing having $k$ successful events out of $N$ trials, with a success chance of $P$. In our case, $P = A_{p0}+A_p$, the chance to parry the incoming attack. Thus, the first term represents the parry-haste we gain if the boss only attacks once during the swing timer and we parry that attack. The second term represents the gain when there are two boss attacks during the swing timer, and the expression in brackets is the probability that we parry exactly one of those attacks (which is 1 minus the probability that we parry neither minus the probability that we parry both).
The text expressions can be converted to analytic expressions if we define
$pho=R_{\rm att}/R_{\rm AA}^{(0)}(1+s)$,
which is the average number of parry-haste opportunities we have in a hasted swing timer. The chance of having one incoming attack is then just $2-pho$, and the chance of having two incoming attacks is $pho-1$. In addition, we can substitute in the exact form of ${\rm binopdf()}$ since our cases are fairly simple. This gives us an expression for $c$ that looks like this:
$c = 0.24 P (2-pho)+0.24 (1-(1-P)^2-P^2) (pho-1) \\ = 0.24 P (pho-2 P pho + 2P)$
and substituting in our expression for $pho$, we finally have:
$c = 0.24 P \left ( \frac{R_{\rm att}}{R_{\rm AA}^{(0)}(1+s)}-\frac{2R_{\rm att}P}{R_{\rm AA}^{(0)}(1+s)}+2P\right )\large$
To give you some idea of how big an effect this is, assume a boss swing timer of 2 seconds, a 2.6-speed weapon, and 10% melee haste. Then $R_{\rm att}=1/2$, $R_{\rm AA}^{(0)}=1/2.6$, $(1+s)=1.1$, and $c=0.0532$. That takes a hasted swing timer of 2.3636 seconds and reduces it to 2.228 seconds, on average, or about 5.74% faster auto-attack speed (i.e. 5.74% haste).
What we'll need for our derivation, in addition to the expression for $R_{\rm AA}$ and $c$, are their derivatives:
$dR_{\rm AA} = ds R_{\rm AA}^{(0)} + dc R_{\rm att}$
and, saving you some algebra on $dc$:
$dc = -ds (1-P)\frac{0.24*P*R_{\rm att}}{R_{\rm AA}^{(0)}(1+s)^2} \\ + 0.24 (da_p)\Phi_{\rm av} \left [ \frac{R_{\rm att}(1-4P)}{R_{\rm AA}^{(0)}(1+s)}+4P\right ]\large$
If we combine these expressions, and define some abstraction variables, we get
$dR_{\rm AA} = ds\pi_s + da_p\pi_p\large$
$\pi_s = R_{\rm AA}^{(0)} – \frac{0.24 P (1-P) R_{\rm att}}{R_{\rm AA}^{(0)}(1+s)^2}\large$
$\pi_p = 0.24 R_{\rm att} \Phi_{\rm av}\left ( \frac{R_{\rm att}(1-4P)}{R_{\rm AA}^{(0)}(1+s)}+4P\right )\large$
Which is what we'll need to develop our expression for rage generation, which will turn into an equation for the Shield Block cast rate $R_{\rm SB}$.
It's important to include parry-haste if we want a reasonable expression for $R_{\rm SB}$. Without including parry-hasting, we'd be over-valuing haste by about 10% ($\pi_s \approx 0.3434$, while $R_{\rm AA}^{(0)} \approx 0.3846$) and we wouldn't have the parry-specific scaling of rage generation that differentiates it from dodge.
In the next post, we'll tackle the Enrage problem, and tie it together with parry-haste and the warrior rotation developed in this post to complete our expression for rage generation.


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Totally remastered in an architect renovation, this Bermuda-inspired estate offers the rare peace and privacy of Point Manalapan, an exclusive island enclave just off Hypoluxo Island, itself a private island community served by a bridge to the mainland and Manalapan's oceanfront barrier island. Time-honored traditions take on an artful modern sensibility in the five-bedroom residence complemented by designer finishes and furnishings with a look of understated elegance.
A beautiful stand of night-lit palm trees fronts the motor court, giving a striking first impression at the estate's entrance. Inside, the gallery foyer sets the refined tone that carries through the grand salon-like living room, stylish dining room, and Italian-crafted MiaCucina kitchen, all designed for effortless entertaining with each opening to the fabulous 41 +/- foot-long loggia. This true outdoor living room invites guests to relax by the sun-splashed pool in the resort-like escape of the lush backyard oasis. Also opening its doors by the pool, the serene master suite enjoys a room-sized bath designed as a spa-like retreat done in delicately veined Canadian blue marble and translucent Walker Zanger Roku Glass with an aqueous gloss. Simply stunning, this one-of-a-kind estate is fashioned for a life well-lived, complete with deeded club privileges to the award-winning Five-Diamond Eau Palm Beach Resort & Spa, minutes away on the Atlantic Ocean's sugar sands.
Curlew Road, Manalapan, Florida. Hidden away in Old Florida serenity, Point Manalapan is an exclusive guard-gated enclave of Hypoluxo Island, surrounded by the Intracoastal Waterway, with Manalapan's ocean beachfront just across the bridge. Manalapan residents enjoy deeded club privileges at the Five-Diamond Eau Palm Beach Resort & Spa. Centrally located in the heart of South Florida's Gold Coast, Manalapan is only about 10 miles south of Palm Beach and about 15 miles north of Boca Raton.
Stunningly renovated inside and out, this Bermuda-inspired estate is surrounded by lush landscaping on a corner lot served by a double-entry motor court and a second drive to the discreet two-bay garage. French doors open the west side of the residence to the resort-style outdoor entertainment space completely secluded by tropical foliage. A full wet bar serves the generously sized living/dining loggia by the heated saltwater pool. Lounge areas on the garden terrace have a balance of sunlight and shade.
Five bedrooms, five full and two half baths are included the spacious total of 7,824 +/- square feet with carefully curated designer finishes including selections from Loro Piana, Lelievre, Larsen, Clarence House, Manuel Canovas, Nancy Corzine, and Brunschwig & Fils. Pella impact-glass windows and exterior doors are featured along with a new concrete tile roof. Baths include fixtures by Duravit and Toto plus Newport Brass fittings. Myriad amenities include the full-house Generac Quiet Source generator, new Lennox air conditioning, sophisticated security system, Panasonic telephone/intercom system, and indoor/outdoor audio system.
Entered through mahogany double doors, the gallery foyer is grounded by warm oak flooring below the cove-lit tray ceiling, and hosts the formal powder room. Flowing through French doors to the poolside loggia, the salon-like living room rises to a lofty 14 +/- foot coffered ceiling with a pair of period chandeliers, and provides multiple seating areas. Pocket doors enter the elegant dining room with custom-upholstered walls and Collura light fixture. Connecting through a butler's pantry, the sleek custom kitchen by MiaCucina is appointed with white lacquer-finish Record Cucine cabinetry, Caesarstone counters, and Thassos marble flooring. Chef's appliances include the 60-inch Imperial gas range with double ovens; Gaggenau electric oven, microwave, and warming drawer; Three Sub-Zero refrigerators and ice maker; and dual Miele dishwashers. Next to a walk-in pantry with cabana bath, the garden-themed breakfast room opens to a pergola-covered terrace by the pool. A separate laundry/utility room is off the kitchen. Opening to a side terrace with water feature, the library/family room centers on a marble-faced gas fireplace between Deco-inspired built-ins incorporating a wet bar with Sub-Zero Fridge/Freezer and Wine Cooler. French doors lead out to the pool terrace from the comfortably elegant master suite in a generously sized wing. Along with a morning bar with Sub-Zero Fridge/Freezer and two wardrobe rooms, the master quarters offer the luxury of a spa-like bath retreat featuring exquisite marble and glass finishes, a cast iron soaking tub, steam shower, two separate vanities, and a private water closet. Three more bedroom suites include one with a sitting area. In another wing off the kitchen, the fifth bedroom suite could be converted into a media room or fitness studio if desired.
- List Price
- $3,385,000
- Property Type
- Single Family
- Lifestyle
- Enclave
- Bedrooms
- 5
- Bathrooms
- 5 full / 2 half
- Total Square Feet
- 7,824
- AC Square Feet
- 6,501
- Garage Spaces
- 2
- Year Built
- 1983
- Taxes
- $29,544
- Tax Year
- 2018
- New Construction
- No
- Bar
- Built-in Shelves
- Closet Cabinets
- Cook Island
- Entry Lvl Lvng Area
- Fireplace(s)
- Foyer
- French Door
- Laundry Tub
- Pantry
- Roman Tub
- Stack Bedrooms
- Volume Ceiling
- Walk-in Closet
- Wet Bar
- Furnished
- Unfurnished
- Stories
- 1
- Marble
- Wood Floor
- Dual Sinks
- Mstr Bdrm - Ground
- Separate Shower
- Separate Tub
- Pets Allowed
- Yes
- Auto Sprinkler
- Covered Patio
- Custom Lighting
- Fruit Tree(s)
- Open Patio
- Screened Patio
- Summer Kitchen
- Zoned Sprinkler
- Other Arch
- Concrete Tile
- 2+ Spaces
- Drive - Circular
- Garage - Attached
- Pool
- Yes
- 1/2 to < 1 Acre
- Corner Lot
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text:
England's Matt Briggs and Scotland's Andrew Oldcorn took advantage of more benign playing conditions to open up a one shot advantage on the second day of the De Vere Club PGA Seniors Championship.
Oldcorn, still searching for his maiden Senior Tour title after recording his second runner-up finish at last week's ISPS Handa Senior Masters presented by The Stapleford Forum, signed for a best-of-the-day round of 66 to move to five under par, one stroke clear of England's Barry Lane.
The 51 year old from Edinburgh has finished inside the top 12 in all four or his appearances on the regular 2011 Senior Tour Schedule, but labelled his display at De Vere Slaley Hall in Hexham, England, the best of the current campaign.
Oldcorn said: "I just got into the zone today, and felt like I could birdie even the hard holes. The first day was a bit of a slog for us all really in the conditions. I was four over par after nine yesterday so I was up against it, but for the last 27 holes I've played really well.
"I've been playing well now for the last two or three weeks. My irons especially have improved, but so have all aspects of my game. I had my coach with me last week, and he spotted a few things. My iron play improved dramatically, and I ended up finishing second.
"Of course I want to get my first win on the Senior Tour under my belt – I'm not going to deny that. But for that to happen a lot of things have to go my way, so we'll just wait and see what the next two days bring.
"I'm looking forward to the weekend, obviously it's a little bit different for us being a four round event rather than a three round tournament. But I know I'm playing well, and I just hope we get some decent weather to make low scoring possible."
Despite bogeying his last two holes, Briggs joined Oldcorn on five under par to continue a fine run of form which has taken even the man himself by surprise.
As on the opening day, Briggs had seemed destined to record a flawless round, only for two late blemishes to blot his copybook. But a round of 66 still kept him on course to contend for his first Senior Tour victory.
He said: "I'm as surprised as anyone to be leading the tournament. I had a bit of a sticky ending again, but overall I have to be delighted with how I'm playing, and the position I'm in. I wasn't able to take advantage of the par fives today, which was a bit disappointing. But I managed to birdie a few of the tougher holes, including the eighth.
"It's new territory for me to be up near the top of the leaderboard going into the weekend, so I'm quite looking forward to having a lie-in and going out a bit later. I'm sure I'll have some nerves, but I'm also sure I'll enjoy the experience."
Briggs and Oldcorn will be joined in the final group by Englishman Barry Lane, who surged up the leaderboard with a stunning round of 67.
Lane is currently 13th on the Senior Tour Order of Merit, but will have high hopes of improving his position after five birdies and an eagle at the fourth hole moved him to four under par.
Lane said: "When I thinned my shot over the back of the green and made a bogey on my first hole, I didn't think it was going to be the best of days! But after that blip I went on to play some very solid golf – my only other bogey was a three putt on the 18th. Holing my bunker shot for an eagle at the fourth was a big bonus, and parring the ninth was a great way to finish, because it's a very tough hole.
"The conditions were slightly easier than yesterday in the first part of the round, but then it got much tougher when it started pouring down with rain, so it was all about keeping it in play and not making any silly mistakes. I rode my luck once or twice, but I probably deserved it after playing so well. I knew I had to go low today because when I started my round I was six off the lead, so to finish the day just one shot behind is very pleasing."
Australian Noel Ratcliffe is currently in fourth place on three under par after mixing seven birdies and three bogeys in a round of 68.
The 66 year old from Sydney reached the turn in level par 36, but roared home in 32 strokes to move into contention to capture his ninth Senior Tour title.
He said: "My short game's been very good for the past two days, and the pace of the greens suits me, which is why I had quite a few single putts. Conditions were perfect for scoring, although the club selection was tricky at times, because we've been used to having the wind to contend with so the stillness threw me a little bit!"
The English duo of Bob Cameron (71) and Kevin Spurgeon (69) are a further shot back on two under par alongside Australian Mike Harwood, who birdied the fiendishly tough 18th hole in a round of 70.
After carding rounds of 71 the Scottish duo of Gordon Brand Jnr and Sandy Lyle, currently second on the Order of Merit, share ninth place on one under par alongside record-breaking Englishman Carl Mason.
|Player name
|OLDCORN, Andrew
|BRAND JNR, Gordon
|FOWLER, Peter
|HARWOOD, Mike
|CAMERON, Bob
|FRANCO, Angel


text:
Levy, David
13 Item(s)
Grid List
Howard Staunton, chess champion, writer and Shakespearean scholar was a figure of controversy in nineteenth century chess circles: He is remembered chiefly as the man who avoided playing Morphy and as the author of numerous vitriolic articles. It is on his chess writings that this book concentrates.
Howard Staunton - 1810-74
Korchnoi's Chess Games comprises almost 1700 games played up to the beginning of 1978 and is the most comprehensive and systematic collection of this great player's games ever to be published. The editors have included every available tournament and match game played by Korchnoi since 1945, and there are a number of miscellaneous games from blitz tournaments and simultaneous exhibitions.
Korchnoi's Chess Games
The remarkable increase in strength of chess computers over the last ten years has resulted in a flood of books and articles on programming methods and new approaches to analysing positions.All important articles on the subject have now been collected together in one volume together with the best games by chess computers including the World Computer Championships.
Computer Chess Compendium
Elements of Intelligent Game Design
This is book is for anyone who has ever tried to match wits with a computer in chess, bridge, or any other game requiring long-range strategy and studied decisions. If you're not a pro, chances are you've been defeated by a machine - and impressed at its uncanny ability to outmaneuver humans. In Computer Gamesmanship, David Levy, an International Chess Master and producer of intelligent computer games, unravels the mysteries of how computers successfully mimic strategic thinking and play complex games.
Computer Gamesmanship
This book attempts to satisfy two different goals. It presents a comprehensive history of computer chess along with many rare examples of the play of early programs. These examples contain both amazing strokes of brilliance and inexplicable catastrophes; they will give the reader a dear perspective of the pioneer days of computer chess. In contrast, contemporary programs are capable of defeating International Grandmasters; the text contains several recent examples including a remarkable victory over former World Champion Anatoly Karpov. The remainder of the book is devoted to an explanation of how the various parts of a chess program are designed and how they function.
How Computers Play Chess
Computer Games II is the second volume in a two-part compendium of papers covering the most important material available on the development of computer strategy games. These selections range from discussions of mathematical analysis of games, to more qualitative concerns of whether a computer game should follow human thought processes rather than a brute force approach, to papers which will benefit readers trying to program their own games.
Computer Games II
David Levy, International and World expert on computer chess, has analyzed the brilliancies of the masters and, in this book, explains how you can learn to recognize the symptoms and produce your own stunning finishing stroke. Make a small sacrifice and buy this elegant combination of explanation and instruction!
Play Chess Combinations and Sacrifices
This book explains the ideas behind the Sicilian Defense and gives the reader many useful rules of thumb as a guide to playing all the standard types of positions that arise in the Sicilian. Any player who reads and understands the ideas explained in this book will be assured of scoring many more points in Sicilian Defense games.
How To Play the Sicilian Defense
Originally published as ''Oxford Encyclopedia of Chess Games: Volume 1: 1485-1866''. Volume 2 was never published, so the title has been shortened to ''Oxford Encyclopedia of Chess Games''. This encyclopedia set out to publish all the important games of chess which have been played since the modern laws came into force in the late 1400s.
Oxford Encyclopedia of Chess Games
The Sicilian Defense is the most exciting of all chess openings and the most popular at all levels of play. The attacking and tactical possibilities of the Sicilian are numerous. There are many sacrificial ideas that occur time and again in the Sicilian, and it is the task of this book to clarify and analyze them
Sacrifices in the Sicilian
This follow-up to the successful chess book How to Play the Sicilian Defence, by the same authors, explains the basic principles of the King's Indian without involving the reader in reams of analysis. Many useful rules and guidelines are given, enabling the reader to understand the ideas behind the opening and the standard types of position which arise.
How to Play the King's Indian Defence
A study and analysis of the games of Bobby Fischer, the greatest chess player the world has ever known.
How Fischer Plays Chess
Computer Games I is the first volume in a two-part compendium of papers covering the most important material available on the development of computer strategy games. These selections range from discussions of mathematical analysis of games, to more qualitative concerns of whether a computer game should follow human thought processes rather than a ''brute force'' approach, to papers which will benefit readers trying to program their own games.
Computer Games I
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7-Night Silver Galapagos Baltra, Galapagos to San Cristobal
- Cruise Line:
- Silversea Cruises
- Voyage #:
- 8024
- Cruise Ship:
- Silver Galapagos
- Destination:
- Galapagos - Exotic Expeditions
- Sailing:
- June 13th - 20th, 2020
- Prices From:
- $8,460
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|Jun 13, 20201
|Baltra, Galapagos
|Jun 132
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|Jun 144
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|Jun 155
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|Jun 156
|Bahia Sullivan, Santiago
|Jun 167
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|El Eden, Santa Cruz
|Jun 179
|Jun 1710
|Punta Pitt, San Cristobal
|Jun 1811
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|Jun 1913
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Silver Galapagos Overview
Introducing newest addition to Silversea's fleet of ultra-luxury ships: the Silver Galapagos. Setting sail September of 2013, the Silver Galapagos will hold 100 guests, perfect for navigating the waterways throughout the Galapagos Islands, she is perfectly crafted for in-depth explorations of this spectacular region. She offers all the intimate conviviality and elegant sophistication that has made Silversea the preferred choice for today's discerning travelers.
All ship accommodations are ocean view, most having balconies, and all with butlers for the personalized service you're used to on Silversea. So that you can relax and sip champagne, leaving the unpacking to your butler as you sail away on your extraordinary adventure. Like-minded guests from across the globe are your sailing companions, and the warm atmosphere is much like a country club where discussions flow as easily as the complimentary drinks.


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All delegates to the Conference must register on arrival at the Palacio Estoril. Council and Committee Members do not need to send any forms to the Secretariat to register in advance.
Please inform the Secretariat if you are unable to attend the Conference.
The deadline for Observer Registration (including Class Representatives to the ISAF Classes Meeting) is 11 October 2007.
To register as an Observer please complete the Observer Registration form and return by email or fax to the ISAF Secretariat. All Observer Registration Forms sent to the ISAF Secretariat will receive an acknowledgement.
All delegates and observers must register at the ISAF Reception desk in the Palacio Estoril to receive their ISAF name badge in order to access any of the ISAF Meetings.
Host City Estoril
The ISAF Annual Conference 2007 will be held in Estoril, Portugal at the Palacio Hotel and the adjoining Vila Galé Estoril from 1-11 November.
Estoril is situated on the Portuguese coast, just 25 km west of Lisbon.
On Tuesday 6 November, the ISAF Rolex World Sailor of the Year Awards will be presented at a gala dinner celebrating the achievements of the nominees.
In its centenary year, ISAF will be launching a Sailing Hall of Fame on Monday 5 November, at a spectacular evening hosted by the city of Estoril and the Estoril Casino.
About The ISAF Annual Conference
Every year the ISAF Annual Conference brings together the leading figures from the sailing world to discuss, debate and decide upon the key issues in the sport of sailing.
The ISAF Committees, Sub-committees and Commissions all have the opportunity to debate all the issues in their respective areas. Based on these discussions they will then make recommendations to the ISAF Council, which is the final decision making body of ISAF. The Conference concludes with three days of Council meetings, when the major decisions which affect sailing's future will be made.
Meetings Microsite
The ISAF Meetings microsite - www.sailing.org/meetings - contains the Agendas, Supporting Papers and Submission from past meetings, 1997 to date. Via the online Minutes Archive you can access all past minutes of ISAF Committee Meetings from 1993 to date.


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Barbara Lynn C.
Make city life pleasant with aesthetician Barbara Lynn Cantone, who practices wellness therapies that balance the skin, strengthen the immune system and focus the mind.
Barbara Lynn is the president of Body & Soul Restorations Inc. in Long Island City, N.Y. She began the company after 15 years in the publishing and not-for-profit worlds, where she experienced what lengthy hours at work, persistent stress and the relentless strains of urban living can do to unbalance both the body and the mind.
Barbara Lynn's response to this imbalance was to create a private treatment room in Long Island City where fatigued New Yorkers can recover personal strength and vitality through wellness therapies that she says, "make city life livable."
As Barbara Lynn explains, our skin is a mirror of everything going on within us: age, diet, fitness, stress and environment are all direct contributors to the health and appearance of our complexion. This is why she approaches skin care holistically, taking each client's lifestyle into account when treating and prescribing an at-home routine.
Each session begins with a thorough intake process that allows Barbara Lynn to determine a customized course of treatment. The client is then centered and prepared for the session using an appropriate aromatherapy blend. In a typical session, this is followed by cleansing, exfoliation (with steam when appropriate), extractions as necessary, relevant massage (face, neck, shoulders, arms and hands), masque, serum, moisturization and SPF. Following the session, Barbara Lynn emails each client with a suggested routine for at-home care and maintenance.
Specialized Training
- International Dermal Institute, 2011
- Aveda New York Institute, 2007
- Lymphatic Drainage, 2009
- LaStone Therapy, 2008


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Vendor: Avaya
53 Questions & Answers
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|Avaya 7893X : Avaya IP Office Platform Configuration and Maintenance


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With his 1994 debut Lead Me On (Burnside), Kelly Joe Phelps made his mark as a solo performer with smoky, heartfelt vocals; a signature slide guitar sound; and folk- and blues-based material that he recast and reimagined to make his own. Phelps carved out a special niche for his music by singing while playing an acoustic guitar set up with high action to facilitate his intricate lap-style slide playing. During the course of his next few albums for Rykodisc, Phelps's songwriting skills blossomed. As the songs took center stage, his slide guitar's role became less prominent and Phelps experimented with a fuller sound, adding guitarists Bill Frisell and Steve Dawson, bassist Keith Lowe, and violinist Jesse Zubot, among others, to his recordings. There came a point when he stopped playing slide, concentrating more on his fingerstyle guitar playing. After making the instrumental album Western Bell (Black Hen) in 2009 Phelps went through a period of soul searching and writing that resulted in his current release Brother Sinner and the Whale (Black Hen). Stylistically and lyrically, the music is gospel based, the lyrics laced with religious imagery, and to the delight of slide guitar fans, his National Style O and bronze bottleneck slide are right up front. I talked to Phelps about what inspired his new album and some of the new techniques that have reinvigorated his slide playing.
You haven't put out a new recording for a few years. Is this gospel direction something you've been working on?
PHELPS: I didn't really set out to write a gospel album, it just sort of happened. The songs all came back to back. I started working on the stuff that became the record around the first part of January 2012, and we recorded in early April 2012. I had the material in my hands in two months. I found myself in a place, in a vein, and when I tried to step outside of that, thinking I needed to do something else along with it, all the action stopped. As soon as I slid back into that vein, it started again. It felt like I had a lot of ideas. I felt fairly fearless about it—there were so many ideas floating around, lyrically and thematically, the sensation was that I needed to grab all this while it was coming and not even concern myself with "Am I gonna make a gospel record?" or even if this stuff is any good. It was happening for a lot of reasons, so I just let it come.
What drives your writing process?
PHELPS: Imagery first. A lot of my lyric writing has been kind of obtuse. I had images or stories in my head, but I would paint them abstractly. This time I didn't want that. I wanted to lay it out straight so people could see what it is. And I didn't want to stop and think too long, because I had so many images coming I wanted to keep going and get some momentum. Then, maybe I could go back and get obtuse again later, but that kept dropping away.
Were you focused on religious imagery the whole time you were writing this album?
PHELPS: I was, absolutely. Not shying away from that helped me keep it straightforward. On this record all the decisions were conscious. I've been doing a lot of reading, research, and talking and thinking and praying— almost solid for the last year and a half, so those questions like "Why do I choose to suffer?" didn't just show up as I was writing. They were questions I was carrying. It wasn't like I woke up and decided to do a gospel record. It was more like the work I was doing was the prep work, so when the time came all I had to do was get it down on paper.
Fans of your slide playing will be glad to hear you've picked it up again. Why did you give it up for a time?
PHELPS: The reason I put the lap-style down is fairly simple. I just lost interest in it. My first record came out in '94 but I'd been playing that style since '91. I loved it for the time I did it, but I started to get bored with it. My whole thing for the 40 years I've been playing is that I enjoy learning. Even when I was a teenager and I would figure out a Chet Atkins tune, I loved learning the tune and being able to play it, but I didn't really want to keep playing the tune. I just loved figuring things out. Sometimes a learning process like that only takes a year or two, sometimes it takes ten. I started playing the slide in 1991 and essentially put it down in 2001 and that's a pretty long time to be trying to play guitar with only one way to get the notes out. And I gave it everything I had during that time.
It seemed perfectly organic to me, both that I applied myself so intently to it and that I came to the end of it. I found things that I love in there. And I realized there are a lot of things I wish I could do but can't, because of the limitations of that approach to playing. What I was looking at was continuing to do this only because people like to hear it, but I didn't want to do that. The dishonesty of that is what stopped me. And musically, I was just tired of it.
What rekindled your interest?
PHELPS: I think the simple answer is that I missed the sensation and the sound of a slide, and I figured I'd been away from it long enough that maybe I'd feel positive about it again. So, when I started working on this new material, I got out my lap slide and thought I'd write some songs with it, but after about three days I realized, "I don't want to do this! What am I going to do now?" I'd monkeyed around with the bottleneck style but hadn't really applied myself to it. I had built up this thing in my head that maybe I wouldn't be good at it. But I remembered when I started the lap thing it wasn't all that easy either. I worked really hard at it and got to a good place. So I thought, "I can do that again."
What is attractive to you about the bottleneck-style slide?
PHELPS: The more I've played around with it, I've realized that the limitations I felt with lapstyle slide just aren't there. I started realizing how many more ways there are to use a slide and your fingers at the same time, like fretting behind the slide. You can do melodic and chordal things that way. That was the start of this world opening up to me.
There are things about it in my head that I'm working on at home that I can't do well enough to put into performance yet, but little things are showing up. For example, I use the slide on my little finger and it's a fairly heavy bronze slide. If I roll my hand over just a little bit across the fingerboard and get the bottom part of the bar away from the strings and use just the tip of it, I can work it like a dobro bar, playing single notes with open strings on either side. But it's really hard! A tiny movement can make or break it—it's a real tricky thing.
The opening lick in "Talkin' to Jehovah" sounds like it includes some of your new techniques.
PHELPS: This is one of those things I've been working on with the combination of fretting and slide [Example 1]. I slide up to the third fret on the top two strings [measure 4], and I do this lick with the index finger fretting the second fret and first fret, with the slide sliding up to the third fret on the third string [measure 7]. There's a pull-off with the slide, and then I grab the fourth string with the second finger, then back to the third string sliding five, three.
If I'm going to do a lot of fretting and slide at the same time, the big thing I'm working on is to not let the slide bar come away from the string. Keeping it close when you're not using it makes it easier to drop it in. The bar itself is fairly heavy and if you get too far away from the string you're not going to be able to get back in time. And the weight of the bar can cause it to slam against the string and make noise, but if you keep it nice and tight and close it really helps your touch. It helps if you imagine what your finger feels like touching the string rather than your slide bar.
PHELPS: It's a cool sound [Example 2]. I'm using that open second string as a kind of rhythm [rhythmic drone], almost like you use the fifth string on a banjo. And when I go down to the sixth and fourth string pair I move the open string down to the third, picking it with my middle finger.
You mentioned the banjo. Do you play the banjo?
PHELPS: I do some. I've got a couple of banjos at home. A couple of records ago I put some banjo songs on it. Some of it seeps into my guitar playing, not so much from a technical place of trying to borrow something from the banjo but just from hearing that sound. I put the drone sound up on the first or second string, kind of upside-down banjo, taking the fifth-string sound and inverting it.
"Hope in the Lord to Provide" has a pianolike gospel sound in the harmony.
PHELPS: It's just moving from the IV chord, melodically back to the I [Example 3]. I invert the chord to get that gospel kind of sound. I'm using the harmony string pairs to get the voice-leading melody.
A lot of the time you damp with your fingers behind the slide, but I notice in this passage you seem to be lifting your fingers up.
PHELPS: When I slide up to the chord I lift my damping fingers to make it ring more. It makes the slide chord blend in with the ringing of the melody line instead of getting choked off. You get these funny overtones. That's one of the reasons I just use microphones now, because that's the kind of thing that doesn't sound the same using pickups.
In "Spit Me Out of the Whale" you're fretting behind the slide a lot. Tell me more about that.
PHELPS: [Example 4a] This is a funny backwards way of thinking about it, but if you're playing without the slide in open G and you barre at the fifth fret you're making a C chord. You can suspend that chord by touching the second string at the sixth fret [Example 4b]. But in this tuning, I can catch that same note behind the slide on the first string at fret three. So I'm reaching back to get a note I would normally reach up for. I cover the top five strings with the slide and when I want to grab that note I lift the slide very slightly and push the first string down to the fretboard with my finger [Example 4c]. I'm leaning the slide toward the low strings a little. Which is why it's so hard because the motion is so subtle. If I do it right, which I try to do every time [laughs], I can hit the fifth-fret note with the slide, pick it up so I can catch the third-fret note with my finger, and still be holding the note at five on the second string with the slide. That creates those ringing overtones that are so cool. I get the melodic motion while still holding the slide chord.
On this one I do a behind-the-slide thing with a chromatic run [Example 5]. The slide has to stay down on this one because part of the chord I'm fingerpicking is fretted by the slide. It's hard because I have to hold the slide bar down gently, let it float, but then I have to push down with my finger not so gently to disengage the string from the slide and push it to touch the fretboard. It's like my fingers have to do two separate things because I have to get the slide to hover, giving it enough weight that the notes are clear, but I can't press too hard because I have to get the fretted strings out from underneath it.
Do you set the action on your guitar high?
PHELPS: Not too high, but maybe a touch higher than average. I think that's because I use the capo a lot and I still want the strings to be high enough to do this stuff when I put the capo on. A lot of National players keep their action real high but I don't think mine is that high.
You do a cool descending run in "Brother Pilgrim" that goes the whole length of the neck. Can you play that for me?
PHELPS: It starts with the slide up high on the top four strings and I grab the sixth string two frets below it [Example 6]. I move the shape down three frets, then two, then two more, just carrying the harmonic idea down. The tricky thing about that is as you move down the fingerboard the frets get farther apart, so you lock the spacing in here up high but you have to keep widening it out as it goes down because the slide has to be over the top of the fret or it's out of tune. And I get those ringy overtones again with no muting. I don't mute that section of the song at all. It's like the sustain pedal on the piano. It's like I just hold it down for that whole part.
It seems like your work with the bottleneck slide style has been kind of liberating for you.
PHELPS: Yes, I feel like everything I could do with the lap style is covered, but then because I can fret and use combinations of fingers, all of a sudden it seems like I can play the guitar as I always have, but now I can add the slide sound to it. When those things started showing up in my head I thought, "That sounds like so much fun, I gotta go after that because there's no end in sight."
ACOUSTIC GUITARS: 1999 National Style O. 2006 Martin D-35 Johnny Cash model with a polished black finish.
AMPLIFICATION: Shure SM-57 microphones. "I've gone back to using microphones," Phelps says. "I didn't want to use a pickup on the National, so I carried that over to the Martin, too. I'm not using monitors anymore either. I'm still getting used to it but at least my guitar sounds like my guitar."
STRINGS: D'Addario medium-gauge 80/20 bronze. On the National, Phelps swaps the top two strings (.013 and .017) for a .016 and .018.
CAPO: Shubb.
SLIDE: Big Heart Robert Johnson model, a solid bronze slide that Phelps lines with a layer of gaffer's tape to get a snug fit. "It's slightly shorter than my little finger, which allows tipping the slide forward a little bit so I can use just the leading edge of it while I try to use other strings around it, either fretted or open."


text: CHICAGO (AP) - Bone-numbing cold spread Monday from the Midwest to the East, forcing millions to bundle up and scurry from place to place in a bid to spend as little time as possible outside."It's so cold, it feels like needles are pricking my eyes," grumbled 19-year-old Ashley Sarpong of Chicago, a fur-lined hood pulled around her face Sunday as she crossed a wind-swept bridge that crossed the Chicago River. "This is the coldest I've felt all year."Snowfall was scant after the subzero air mass rolled in, but ice and high wind whipped up snow along roadways and made driving hazardous for holiday travelers. The cold was less severe Monday, the second day of winter, but temperatures in Chicago were expected to get only into the single digits.Monday morning commuters in Dayton, Ohio, were greeted with zero-degree temperatures, the National Weather Service reported. It was in the single digits in Toledo, Cincinnati and Columbus. In Pittsburgh, schools were initially to open two hours late, but were closed for the day instead because of below-zero wind chills.At kickoff in Cleveland for the Browns-Bengals football game Sunday, the temperature was 18 degrees with winds up to 40 mph. Temperatures dipped to minus-6 degrees in two Iowa cities, with wind gusts of 40 mph that made it feel like 35 below zero in areas.The gusty winds and cold also added to power-outage headaches, with more than 4,000 Ameren customers and more than 3,000 ComEd customers without power as of Monday morning. In northwest Ohio, about 5,000 homes were without power.In western New York, a 134-mile stretch of the state Thruway between Buffalo and Pennsylvania reopened around 8 a.m. Monday after being closed for about six hours because of blowing snow.Indiana State Police said weather was a factor Sunday night when a car spun out of control on an icy toll road near New Carlisle, crossed the median and was struck by a semitrailer. All four people in the car were killed.In southwestern Michigan, about 30 vehicles were involved in a deadly series of pileups on a six-mile stretch of Interstate 94 north of Stevensville, about 175 miles west of Detroit. An Illinois doctor died when his car slammed into a semi-truck that had stopped on the highway in whiteout conditions.Flights were canceled and delayed Sunday at airports on both coasts. Hundreds of travelers were stranded at airports in Phoenix; Seattle-Tacoma, Wash.; and Arlington, Va."There was a lot of people sleeping on the floor, it was a hard cold floor, and the doors kept opening," Rebecca Gray, 30, of South Berwick, Maine, said Monday morning from Reagan National Airport, where she spent the night with about 250 other people including her 3-year-old daughter and 5-year-old son. "There were babies last night sleeping out there. Women and children shouldn't have been left like that while people said it's not our problem and went home.'"Social service workers in Chicago conducted well-being checks and hosted more than 100 people in an overnight warming center. About 17 South Side residents had to be evacuated from their apartment building into the cold early Monday after an alarm sound indicating high carbon monoxide levels there.The winter blast continued in the Pacific Northwest. In Seattle, the National Weather Service was predicting up to 4 inches more by the Monday morning commute - a lot in a city with few plows and hilly streets.The heavy snow was believed to have caused the collapse of a large tent over a temporary ice-skating rink in Bellevue, Wash., briefly trapping some of the 10 people inside and slightly injuring one girl. Snow was also suspected in the collapse of an unoccupied building housing a storage business in rural Waitsburg in eastern Washington.Arizona's third storm in a week was expected to roll in Monday afternoon, bringing up to 10 inches of snow to higher elevations and rain in Phoenix.Authorities in Boston, no stranger to chilly weather, canceled public schools Monday and Tuesday in the face of an overnight freeze and wind gusts of up to 50 mph.In North Dakota, the National Weather Service said Bismarck was on track to break a 1916 record for snowfall in December. The city has had 19 inches of snow so far this month, and with 4 more expected Monday night, the record of 21.7 inches could be shattered.But things are looking up: The days are getting longer.--MICHAEL TARM, Associated Press


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September 26 - Late Afternoon Sea
September 26 - Late Afternoon Sea
September 26 - Late Afternoon Sea
Collection of 85 surf and nature inspired stained glass panels representing each day of Autumn.
Artist Statement for Harvest.
What do I cultivate? Literally and metaphorically speaking, I have planted some seeds in red solo cups. I have discovered that in some cases I do not have a green thumb. Yet I want a garden. I want a big bright garden that bears fruit. Then I could relish those earthy fragrances that somehow trigger ancient memories and feelings that connect me to something much greater than myself. I tap into this source that keeps me grounded, yet happy and feeling like I can fly.
In fall, everything changes so quickly. The vegetables and fruits are bold colors and are ready for picking. Leaves change. The days are warm, yet shorter than summer. Nights are crisp and starry. The ocean is warm and the waves are shared with old friends. The fishing is great. I wonder: Why is it that things always seem so great right before they end? Everyone shows up for the party and stays late. I love these moments, I hold onto them long after they are gone. This is my harvest.
Mary Tantillo


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Elementary Heart Health: Lessons & Assessment
Donna Baker
National Association for Sport and Physical Education, Nov 1, 2001 - Health & Fitness - 23 pages
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6pts aerobic exercise aerobic fitness behavior cardiovascular fitness cardiovascular health circuit training stations circuit training unit Class 2 Class class period Daily criteria rubric Date Pulse Declarative Outcomes determining training heart effort equipment for circuit Explains importance Explanation of points fitness card posted grade heart rate zone holders for cards importance of sustained Music and player NASPE noted as np np for procedural Objectives The student overhead projector participating pencils in holders performance performance-based assessment Physical Education points are awarded points each lesson points for class points received Refer poss Pulse 1 Pulse Pulse 3 Pulse Pulse 4 Class ready for class receives two points record book example Refer to Table resting heart rate sample fitness card shorthand notations Student B's Student D's student learning sustained circuit training Sustains training heart Take Pulse taking the pulse target heart rate Task Management Outcomes training heart rate workout X Class


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Monday, July 1, 2013
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28 comments
The mix of print is so gorgeous! Great collection!
Amazing print!
Kisses from
http://www.withorwithoutshoes.com – My Bloglovin
looks a lot like prada and dries, but that's not a real problem. also, i love it how the first guy contrasts patterns with his one chest ink! :)
Great shots! I really like some of the prints! :)
There's a little too much clash for me here. We just got out of the 90s remix. It should stay gone for a while.
Wow, this collection is fabulous! Talk about raiding the boyfriend's closet…
Absolutely agree with you: fabulous and totally 'borrowable'! :-)
so rare to see this kind of modernist yet quite wearable clothing for guys!
Interesting prints
xo Jennifer
I am graphic pattern lover.. so these just makes me happy! Especially the first look! Fantastic!
What a stunning and accomplished collection. I love the shoes.
Am I the only one who doesn't like tattoos? Tattoos and attractive women chewing gum–same turnoff. I know tattoos are "in" and I like the Andrea Pompilio fashions, but I for one, don't think tattoos look good on anyone, even the gorgeous Angelina Jolie. Maybe I'm in the minority, but I don't mind.
tattoos always look cheap to me
I think you are right. Tattoos doesn't look good on everyone but in this shot I like it because it doesn't quite match with the overall style.
Amazing modern collection! Love the prints
Oooh la la. We don't typically comment on menswear but love the pattern mixing (including the tattoos) in this one.
amazing collection….
So nice patterns.
cool fashion…nice shots…
Gian Luca M
Great Prints!! I love man's clothes.
totally in love with these looks!
Pensive on the use of such dark colors. With the rare and occasional pop of a muted orange or the sky blue shirt found it very subdued. Loved the prints/brocades but why so dark for Spring/Summer? Huh.
I've never been confident mixing patterns but this collection is great, totally wearable and translated to women, thank you for showing
I am not a big fan of mixing patterns, but I must say that pic #1 is an excellent example of patterns done right!
The first gentlemans outfit is the coolest in my opinion, his tattoos add great aesthetic value and the shoes are very handsome


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The Auburn City Council voted to eliminate its fledgling bus system during a special called meeting Monday, putting an end to the controversial Auburn Neighborhood Transit after six months of service. The last day A.N.T. will operate is Dec. 28.
The council's decision Monday came within days of an announcement from the state that the proposed apartment complex the city was banking on to boost its current budget did not receive the $800,000 in tax credit financing needed for the deal. The city created A.N.T. to make the Auburn Hills apartment project more attractive for the Atlanta developers that put in for the low-income housing tax credits.
The developer, which used A.N.T. to boost its Farmington Hills Phase II project near Winder, did receive tax credits for that proposal off Haymon Morris Road.
See Wednesday's paper for a full story.
Auburn "kills" A.N.T., bus service to end Dec. 28
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Recently we were nominated by Inspiring Travelers to take part in the 7 Links Project started by Trip Base. I actually first saw this exercise at ProBlogger and thought it was a great idea. I did my own 7 Links about a year ago and since it is midway through the year, I thought it would be a good time to do another.
THE GOAL of The 7 Links Project
To unite bloggers in a joint endeavor to share lessons learned and create a bank of long but not forgotten blog posts that deserve to see the light of day again.
1) Blogger is nominated to take part
2) Blogger publishes his/her 7 links on his/her blog – 1 link for each category.
3) Blogger Nominates 5 More Bloggers
Our 7 Links
1. Most Beautiful Post – Walking Amman
I wouldn't say that Amman is a beautiful city as far as the skyline or some of its architecture. But we had a wonderful time seeing it with our guides Ali and Mahmoud. Once we finished the post, we felt that we captured the essences of the city. We felt that captured the beautiful moments of our time there.
2. Most Popular Post –Petra by Night
Not far behind Walking Amman for most beautiful post was Petra By Day and Petra by Night. (I see a pattern here in Jordan being beautiful.) However, Petra by Night is our most popular post so may be others found it to be the most beautiful. This post is still going out of control and has not only received over 60,000 Stumbles but nearly 70,000 views. Every day I am amazed when I see it going strong our stats page.
3. Most Controversial -India is Filthy
This is an easy one, India is Filthy. The title alone is enough to cause an uproar. We wrote it while we were in India. We had already been there over 2 months at the time and the utter filth was driving us to our breaking point. We found it all so senseless for a country that is developing rapidly and has the resources to do something about it. I hope that India cleans up it's act because it could be beautiful everywhere.
4. Most Helpful Post –Figuring out India Rail
We did a 3 part series on booking trains in India. It can be very confusing trying to take a train there and it took us 3 months, but we finally learned how to book online with a Canadian Credit Card, how to book last minute and how to pay off the train captain if you only have a general class seat, but want to upgrade to 2nd class. It can be done.
5. A Post Whose Success Surprised Me – Honesty, Fear, Triumph – Dear Reader
I don't even have a picture for this one, normally our popular posts are photo heavy.
I had another post scheduled for the day this post came out, but I woke up in a funk. I had to get a few things off of my chest and I wrote this post quickly, published it and then left the house to go and see a movie. I didn't think anyone would read it and I was sure that those who did would give me a lot of flack. As it turned out, I came home that night to an onslaught of comments and support that brought tears to my eyes.
6. A post we feel didn't get the attention it deserved – Sea Kayaking John Gray's Sea Canoe
This was a beautiful 2 days in Thailand and a unique way to explore the Hongs and Islands of Southern Thailand. We loved sharing the experience and the photographs that we captured were amazing. We wish that more people would check out this post to be inspired to try something different when visiting Thailand.
7. The post that you are most proud of – Tuk Tuk Driver Makes a Difference.
We were honoured to be invited by our friend Ajith in Sri Lanka to visit a school in the Jungle where he was donating shoes to the students. We have introduced so many travelers to Ajith and we are happy to be able to have them give him messages for us. We want him to know that we are still thinking of him and it feels good to be able to send work his way when people visit Sri Lanka. He is a poor tuk tuk driver with a big heart that gives so much and we are happy to be able to share his story.
So, now it is our turn to nominate 5 More Bloggers to keep the momentum going.
Wandering Trader
A Little Adrift
Hole in the Donut
Travels With Two
Have you been nominated? Check out the list of Nominated Bloggers to avoid nominating someone twice.


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Colmao Flamenco Restaurantpin_dropAddress & Details
phone (03) 9417 4131
72 Johnston St
Fitzroy 3065, VIC
phone (03) 9417 4131
|1.4 km (0.5 sq mi)
|3 km (2 mi) from Melbourne CBD
|Local Government Area:
|City of Yarra
|State District:
|Federal Division:
Fitzroy is an inner city suburb of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, 2 km north-east from Melbourne's central business district. Its Local Government Area is the City of Yarra. Its borders are Alexandra Parade, Victoria Parade, Smith Street and Nicholson Street. Fitzroy is Melbourne's smallest suburb in terms of area, being approximately 100 Ha. At the 2006 Census, it had a population of 8,814.
Planned as Melbourne's first suburb, it was later also one of the city's first areas to gain municipal status.
It has a long associations with the working class and is currently inhabited by a wide variety of ethnicities and socio-economic groups and is known for a culture of bohemianism, being main home of Melbourne's Fringe Festival. Its commercial heart is Brunswick Street, which is one of Melbourne's major retail, eating, and entertainment strips.
It has undergone waves of both urban renewal and gentrification since the 1950s. In response to past planning practices, much of the suburb is now a historic preservation precinct with many individual buildings and streetscapes covered by Heritage Overlays, its built environment is diverse and features some of the finest examples of Victorian era architecture in Melbourne. The most recent changes to Fitzroy are mandated by the Melbourne 2030 Metropolitan Strategy in which both Brunswick Street and nearby Smith Street are designated for redevelopment as Activity Centres.
It was named after Sir Charles Augustus FitzRoy, the Governor of New South Wales from 1846 to 1855.
filter_dramaArts & Culture


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Follow RFF News on your cell phone. Text follow rff to 40404 you will receive txt messages with RFF News
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Okay I could be thinking about this too much but the sequence 4236 is on my brain Ep 1 4th person shown eliminated (Marion)Ep 24th person shown eliminated (Dio)Ep 34th person shown eliminated (Swimmer guy Maarten van ....)Ep 46th person shown would have been Marit or William - no one eliminatedEp 52nd person shown eliminated (Marit)
Did the standing theory work for former seasons?
I was watching S11, just to fill up my day while waiting for episode 7..The photogroup theory thing, I guess remain proven, since the Mole at S11 standing in the middle too,
owh..and one more thing, did anyone realize the number of goat and cows in the flight to spain question? That was question for Tim, and he was the first person to get the envelope,
Didn't the host/last years winner stay mostly front and center last year in the group shots? Where Tim is this time??
Recently I found a software (unstable though) that can help me browse foreign sites quickly without using the flow. Watched this episode from my friend. By far this season is epic! My favorite TV series.
Now I'm really reconsidering the guess I made before the show aired. Will we see another Kathryn Price in this season? I guess the title of this episode refers to the real contestants in the game.
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Aer Lingus is offering sale fares for travel on nonstop flights from JFK to Dublin. High-season fare, for travel July 1-Aug. 22, starts at $949 round-trip, including taxes; nonstop flights on other airlines start at $1,243. Aer Lingus is offering sale fares for June and late August, from $699 round-trip for June 1-15, $799 for June 16-30 and $849 for Aug. 23-31; many dates are sold out. For cheapest fares, fly Monday-Thursday; Saturday night stay required. Book online by Wednesday.
INFO aerlingus.com
The Uganda Wildlife Authority (ugandawildlife.org), which manages the country's national parks, has reduced the fee for its gorilla-viewing permits by 30 percent. The discounted rate is $350 per person per day, down from $500, for travel in April and May. The price is reflected in wildlife tours, such as Africa Adventure Consultants' new Uganda Flying Safari, a chimp- and gorilla-tracking trip in Uganda parks. The 10-day land package costs $6,479 per person double (rate is less for more travelers), plus $700 for two gorilla permits (vs. $1,000) and $300 for two chimp permits.
INFO 866-778-1089, adventuresinafrica.com
Spend spring in Beverly Hills and get a $100 hotel credit, free breakfast and parking, room upgrade and two Rodeo VIP cards with special offers. Seven hotels are participating in the Spring Getaway in Beverly Hills promo, including the Beverly Hilton; Beverly Wilshire, a Four Seasons hotel; Montage Beverly Hills; and the Peninsula Beverly Hills. Rates and terms vary. Thompson Beverly Hills requires stays of at least two nights; rooms start at $499, plus $76 taxes. Deal includes continental breakfast in Caulfield's (a la carte coffee and toast are normally $9) and valet parking.
INFO lovebeverlyhills.com/springgetaway
The new Hotel de Paris St. Tropez, in the town of St. Tropez along the French Riviera, is offering introductory rates for stays March 23 through May 7. Rates start at $375 a night, including taxes and buffet breakfast; regular rate starts at $611. No booking deadline, but rate is based on availability.
INFO 888-334-7609, hoteldeparis-sainttropez.com
Travel deals: Dublin, French Riveria, more – Newsday


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Creating knowledge
Every scholar is part wizard, part muggle.
As wizards, scholars are lone geniuses in search of original insight. They question everything. They ignore conventional wisdom and tradition. They experiment.
As muggles, scholars are subject to the normal rules of power and influence. They are limited by common sense and group think. They are ambitious. They promote and market their ideas. They have the perfect elevator pitch ready for every potential funder of research. They connect their research to hot fields. They climb the social ladder in professional societies. As muggles, they know that the lone voice is probably wrong.
The sad fate of the wizards is that their discoveries, no matter how significant, are not knowledge until accepted by the muggles.
Einstein stood on the shoulder of giants: he needed all of the science that preceded him. First, he needed it to develop special relativity theory. Then, he needed it as a starting point from where to lead the physics community on an intellectual journey. Without that base of prior shared knowledge, they would not have followed.
As a social construct, knowledge moves at a speed limited by the wisdom of the crowd. The real process by which scholarly research moves from the world of the wizard into the world of muggles is murky, complicated, longwinded, and ambiguous. Despising these properties, muggles created a clear and straightforward substitute: the peer-review process.
When only a small number of distinguished scholarly bodies published journals, publishing signaled that the research was widely accepted as valid and important. Today, thousands of scholarly groups and commercial entities publish as many as 28,000 scholarly journals, and publishing no longer functions as a serious proxy for wide acceptance.
Most journals are created when some researchers believe established journals ignore or do not sufficiently support a new field of inquiry. New journals give new fields the time and space to grow and to prove themselves. They also reduce the size of the referee pool. They avoid generalists critical of the new field. Gradually, peer review becomes a process in which likeminded colleagues distribute stamps of approval to each other.
Publishers thrive by amplifying scholarly fractures and by creating scholarly islands. As discussed in previous blog posts, normal free-market principles do not apply to the scholarly-journal market. [What if Libraries were the Problem] Without an effective method to kill off journals, their number and size keep increasing. Unfortunately, the damage to universities and to scholarship far exceeds the cost of journals.
Niche fields use their success in the scholarly-communication market to acquire departmental status, making the scholarly fracture permanent. The economic crisis may have stopped or reversed the trend of ever more specialized, smaller, university departments, but the increased cost structure inherited from the boom years lingers. Creating a new department should be an exceptional event. Universities went overboard, influenced and pressured by commercial interests.
As a quality-control system, the scholarly-communication system should be conservative and skeptical. As a communication system, it should give exposure to new ideas and give them a chance to develop. By simultaneously pursuing two contradictory goals, scholarly journals have become ineffective at both. They are too specialized to be credible validators. They are too slow and bureaucratic for growing new ideas.
Journals survive because universities use them for assessment. Not surprisingly, scholarly papers solidly reside in muggle world. Too many papers are written by Very Serious Intellectuals (VSIs) for VSIs. Too many papers are written in self-aggrandizing pompous prose, loaded with countless footnotes. Too many papers are written to flatter VSIs with too many irrelevant references. Too many papers are written to puff up a tidbit of incremental information. Too many papers are written. Too few papers detail negative results or offer serious critique, because that only makes enemies.
When given the opportunity, scholarly authors produce awe inspiring presentations. The edutainment universe of TED Talks may not be an appropriate forum for the daily grunt work of the scholar, but is it really too much to ask that the scholarly-communication system let the wizardry shine through?
Universities claim to be society's engines of innovation. They have preached the virtues of creative destruction brought on by technological innovation. Yet, the wizards of the ivory tower resist minor change as much as the muggles of the world.
Open Access is catalyzing reform on the business side of the scholarly-communication system. Will Open Access be enough to push universities into experimentation on the scholarly side?
That is an Open question.
This January 26, 2015 article was re-posted from Eric Van de Velde's SciTechSociety website at http://scitechsociety.blogspot.com/2015/01/creating-knowledge.html.