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Friday, March 21, 2014
No wait, it's a landslide
the projection has lurched violently to the advantage of the Liberals. The party now leads with 43.1% (or between 41% and 47%, assuming normal polling errors) against just 32.8% for the Parti Québécois (or between 32% and 36%). The Coalition Avenir Québec remains well behind with 13.3% (or between 12% and 14%) while Québec Solidaire has slipped to 7.8% (or between 7% and 8%).
These sorts of numbers give the Liberals a large majority government of 71 seats, with the PQ reduced to 50 and the CAQ to just two, putting them in a tie with QS. The likely ranges now point only to a Liberal victory, with between 61 and 76 seats while the PQ could win only between 46 and 59 seats.
Has the campaign really swung so heavily towards Couillard and the Liberals? The last time Forum reported, they gave the Liberals a two-point edge when both CROP and Léger saw the race as tied or leaning towards the PQ. Léger and CROP both subsequently recorded Liberal gains, so perhaps Forum will be a precursor to further Liberal gains again. But these numbers for the Liberals are rather extraordinary. The party has not been recorded at 45% support in any poll for many, many years. Has the PQ campaign really imploded to such a huge extent?
Considering the unusual nature of this poll in the context of other surveys, I will update the projection this weekend (something I would normally not do) if new surveys from CROP and/or Léger emerge that portray a different picture.
on March 5. Since then, they have recorded a five point jump for the Liberals to 45% and a six point drop for the PQ to 32%. The CAQ was up one point to 13%, while Québec Solidaire was unchanged at 7%.
Since Forum does not report correctly weighted support levels by language (instead, they report the raw, unweighted, disproportionately distributed numbers) I have left them off the chart.
The poll was conducted on March 19 only. In my view, this is a problem and is one that Forum could easily avoid but continues to choose not to. The firm conducts its polls in one evening over a period of a few hours. What this means is that Forum polled 1,650 Quebecers who happened to be home between, say, 7 PM and 10 PM on Wednesday night.
The question must then be asked. Are Quebecers who are home between 7 and 10 on a Wednesday night representative of Quebecers as a whole? Are they markedly different from Quebecers home on Thursday nights or Tuesday nights, or Quebecers who were not home on this particular Wednesday? Luckily, the Montreal Canadiens were not playing on Wednesday, otherwise the poll might have been conducted among non-hockey fans only. The by-election miss in Brandon-Souris in November 2013 might have been partly caused by the Grey Cup taking place on the same night of the final poll.
That something as minor as this could even be a factor is an example of why polling should not be done on a single day. And with Forum conducting its poll in such a narrow time frame, call-backs are impossible. Telephone pollsters carry out call-backs to try to reach the people they missed when they first called in order to maintain the random nature of the sampling. Otherwise, no attempt is made to reach a representative sample of the population, just a sample of the people home on a particular night. And as Forum uses interactive voice response methodology, which has a response rate of between 1% and 3%, the need to conduct call backs is even greater.
So why not run the poll over three days, for example, instead of three hours? What is being sacrificed to get 'fresher' numbers for no particular reason? I can see the benefits of a flash poll after a big event, such as a debate, but not during an unremarkable period of the campaign.
The poll showed little real movement in Quebec City or the regions, but recorded a big swing in the Montreal area. There, the Liberals jumped seven points to 49%, while the PQ fell eight points to 30%. This was responsible for almost all of the shift in voting intentions province wide.
It wasn't the only big swing recorded. Pauline Marois's approval rating was virtually unchanged at 32%, but Couillard's increased by 10 points to 44%. François Legault's surged by 14 points to 48%, with his disapproval rating plummeting 17 points to 32%. That seems a little extreme.
I can't help but look at this poll with a good deal of skepticism, at least in terms of the precise numbers. The trendline seems consistent with other polls. But we can't definitively say whether the poll is on the mark or not until we get some corroborating numbers. Hopefully, we'll get those soon.
23 comments:
"the Montreal Gazette was scolded by the MRIA for the way the last Forum poll was contemptuously reported"ReplyDelete
Hahaha! I had totally noticed that! I've never seen a news article report on a poll with as much as reservation as that one. It basically read:
"We obtained these polling results from Forum Research, and last election they put out this one poll that was sorta, kinda, somewhat close to the actual result, so there's a chance these numbers might be worth something, but generally speaking everyone should be skeptical of polls".
It was hysterical!
I like critical reporting, like the reporting that was done on the final Brandon-Souris poll by the Winnipeg Free Press. But that article in the Gazette was more along the lines of "here's a poll, but polls totally blow, amirite?"Delete
I agree with the MRIA that if the author felt polls were so horrible, why was the article written at all?
Sir, you made me happy and excited until i read your comments... Why do you bother changing your projections on the basis of polls which you tell us to take with a grain of salt?ReplyDeleteReplies
The aim of aggregating the polls together is so that the flaws in each of them individually can be cancelled out. This poll raises alarm bells, but is not necessarily inaccurate. The aim is to give readers all of the information and let them decide for themselves.Delete
Perhaps the big swing in the Montreal area exaggerates Liberal support but accurately records PQ support. After all, the Liberals historically receive between 40-45% on the island of Montreal whilst the PQ has been below 30% for several election cycles - am I correct?ReplyDelete
I do find it hard to believe that outside the two big metropolitan areas the Liberals still show a significant lead. Sorry but that flies in the face of past history !ReplyDelete
Forum has poll on Trinity Spadina byelection:ReplyDelete
The poll doesn't show anything unexpected a 14% NDP lead over the Liberals. By-elections are often unpredictable and usually have low turnout. I think the end result will likely be closer than a 14% spread.Delete
The NDP should be able to hold Trinity-Spadina. Joe Cressy is a strong candidate and they are well organized in this riding, despite changing demographics due to gentrification favouring the Liberals.Delete
On the other hand, I don't think the nomination controversy will affect the Liberals. Most voters probably won't care. And right now it seems more of a "he said", "she said" thing.
Dunno about their Quebec work, but when they poll in Toronto my reaction is ... "Wake me whenever the new orgs find enough change under the cushions to pay for an Ipsos one"ReplyDelete
I don't live in Quebec, but I have been following this election closely. I am surprised how sloppy and unfocused the PQ campaign has been.ReplyDelete
Now with the polls favouring the Liberals again, Pauline Marois is claiming that English speaking students from other parts of the country are going to come to Quebec and illegally vote in the election!
I would have expected more shrewdness from a veteran politician like Marois.Replies
Once again the PQ can not win fairly so they blame the "ethnic vote" to quote Jacques Parizeau for their loss.Delete
Most students under the law will be able to vote. The law requires one to be resident in Quebec for 6 months. Most universities begin in September roughly 7 months before the election. The other part of eligibility is a question; "do you intend to live in Quebec"? Of course many students may not have this intention over the long term but, the question is worded without a specific timeline and so becomes open to interpretation by the voter. Most voters are unlikely to move from Quebec the day of the election or the day after. So on the face of it while the second part appears to be a barrier to voting it is broadly worded enough that most voters will be able to answer "yes" truthfully.
The PQ always had, and seems like always will, have bad strategists. Compared to the PLQ's very focused and very smooth campaign, the PQ is all over the place and nowhere at the same time. One point being: if seperation is to be made, considering the changing demographics with the massive immigrant population Québec is accepting, you'll need to convince them of the well being of the project. Even English-speaking Quebecers should be involved in this and made to feel like what we are building is better, but no. It's always a "us against them" sort of project, take the Charter for example. "They" do not conform, so we'll force them into it, we'll try to assimilate them the way the British tried to assimilate us 300 years ago. It doesn't make any sense, especially considering our own past history, but for the few enlighted at the PQ, seems like it does.ReplyDelete
All that to say, there is nothing surprising about this sloppy campaign when you take into consideration the whole political organization of the PQ. Even now, they are acting as if Pauline Marois was still in the opposition trying to win government with the constant attacks against the Liberals, but no, she was in power, she should be defending her accomplishments and present her plan for the next 4 years and leave the competition to the attack mechanism, to lower themselves there. When the population sees a person that would make a good opposition leader because of their fight and bite, that's generally where they'll place such person. Again, seems the PQ doesn't know that. Politics 101...
I was excited about the new Leger poll until I found out it was an online non-probability poll. Really Leger? A non-probability poll? How the heck are they able to publish something like that and say it's representative? They can't even give a margin of errorReplyDelete
New Leger/ Journal de Montreal poll has the Liberals up 40% to PQ 33%. Not as big a lead as Forum suggests, but pretty close.ReplyDelete
No way Greens are going to get 2% of the vote -- they are only running in 1/3 of the ridings so will likely get closer to 0.7% of the vote.
Odd, the Globe and Mail is reporting it as a non-probability poll, but other news outlets give it 1.9 percent margin of error 19 out of 20".ReplyDelete
Léger has been conducting its polls online throughout this election, and for the last few elections as well. CROP also does its polling online.ReplyDelete
Online polls are non-probability polls. All the polls Léger has done in this campaign and in recent campaigns have been non-probability polls, as have been the polls by CROP in this cycle.ReplyDelete
Globe and Mail: "Because it was an online non-probability survey, the margin of error cannot be determined, Leger said." Why is there no margin of error here, whereas there are in most other polls?ReplyDelete
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Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.


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How do I make an appointment?
It's easy to begin working with a counselor. Appointments may be made either by coming to the Counseling Center office, or by calling (212) 854-2092.
The first step is a phone screening with one of our counselors who will ask you questions about you and your concerns. If you feel your concerns are urgent please let us know right away. After the initial phone screening you may be scheduled for an in person appointment.We will arrange a first consultation for you at a time that fits your schedule. We always try to accommodate requests for appointments as quickly as possible, and are usually able to give students an appointment within a week of their request. At the time of your first session, you will be asked to complete some paperwork, after which you will visit with a counselor for about 30 minutes. After the consultation, you and your counselor can schedule additional appointments if you so decide. Subsequent appointments are usually 45 minutes in length. Students sometimes come to us wanting only a single session in which to ask a question, or get information.
The initial consultation provides you and your counselor with an opportunity to discuss present concerns and relevant background information. This session will also lead to a recommendation regarding further services, and a mutually-agreed upon decision as to how the Counseling Center can best help you. Referrals may be made to on-campus or off-campus services that are most appropriate to your needs.
Any full-time undergraduate student currently enrolled at Barnard College may use our services. Counseling services are free for Barnard students who have paid the Health Services Fee (although you will need to pay for any medication that is prescribed).
What are the procedures for subsequent visits?
The Counseling Center operates according to a short-term therapy model. The average number of sessions used per year by the students who visit us is approximately 5.8. However, you and your counselor may decide that you would benefit most from longer-term therapy. We have an extensive referral network, and in these instances, we can suggest various referral options for you in the community.
Another option for continuing your progress in counseling after your individual sessions is to become a member of a counseling group. There is no outside limit on the number of group sessions that you may attend, and a group experience is, for many students, the best way to work on the issues that brought you to Counseling.
Cancellations and No-Shows
Personal commitment to counseling is important, and we encourage you to keep all appointments that you have scheduled. If you must miss a session due to an illness or an emergency, please call the Counseling Center at (212) 854-2092 to cancel the appointment as far in advance as possible. If you miss your scheduled appointment, we cannot guarantee that we will be able to continue to hold your appointment time for you.
When is the office open, and where are you located?
The Furman Counseling Center is located on the first floor of Hewitt Hall. Our office hours are from 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m., Monday through Friday. We offer evening appointments between 5:00 p.m. and 7:00 p.m. Monday through Thursday, but these are available by pre-scheduled appointment only. The Counseling Center is open to students every week during the Fall and Spring academic semesters, and you must be enrolled in school to use our services.
Our phone number is (212) 854-2092.

subset: commoncrawl


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R2-D2 - TAC - Basic (30 04)
Paul Harrison
December 14, 2010
You need a Frames Capable browser to view this content.
Star Wars is a Copyright and Trademark of LucasFilm LTD. This site is intended for informational purposes only, and is not in anyway associated with LFL. All Visual Guides, images, and content are the property of JediTempleArchives.com, © 2012 and may not be reused without permission. Please do not direct link to any of the content on this web site.


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Employee Assessment
Employers need to evaluate skills needed for each employee to be successful at specific jobs.
The Chattanooga State Regional WorkKeys Center is a licensed ACT service center. It was established in the mid-1990s to address the training needs of business and industry and to build a certified workforce for the Tennessee Valley. With today's global economy, higher skill levels are necessary for all jobs. Employers need to evaluate skills needed for each employee to be successful at specific jobs, and implement training to build a high performance workforce.
The WorkKeys system was designed by ACT, the same company that developed the college entrance exam. WorkKeys measures communication, problem-solving, and interpersonal skills which are the building blocks of any career. WorkKeys® is a national system of workplace skills measurement, designed to improve the overall quality of America's workplace, and is used by many employers in the Chattanooga area and by companies in 48 of the 50 states.
Employees: Sign up to take a test. Call (423) 697-2661
Employers: Find out more about WorkKeys and Profiling. Call (423) 697-3329
The Myers-Briggs Type Indicator assessment has been employed as a tool for many years by a variety of users in small businesses and large corporations, service industries and manufacturing. Chattanooga State can facilitate the administration of the MBTI for your organization.
The Hartman Value Profile
The Hartman Value Profile provides profiles of persons based on a hierarchy of values. The results of the profile measure a person's capacity to make value judgments with respect to the world and oneself. This information can be very valuable when evaluating prospective employees. Chattanooga State can facilitate the administration of the Hartman Profile for your organization.


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Saint Louis U Scientists Partner on Malaria Research
Feb 18, 2011, 12:44 ET
ST. LOUIS, Feb. 18, 2011 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The Center for World Health & Medicine at Saint Louis University and China's Guangzhou Institutes of Biomedicine and Health (GIBH) are forming a global research partnership that initially will focus on new treatments for malaria.
The organizations are not only connected by a shared commitment to fight a devastating disease, but their key leaders are former Pfizer Inc. drug discovery scientists who formerly worked together in Chesterfield, Mo.
GIBH is part of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, a premier government scientific research organization in China, which is similar to the U.S. National Science Foundation. Its chief technology officer and vice president of research, Micky Tortorella, has held the position for more than a year after leaving Pfizer.
The Center for World Health & Medicine began with a dozen scientists at Saint Louis University in July, with a goal of turning basic science research into drugs that combat diseases and medical problems that largely afflict the developing world.
"This is the first step in setting up an international network of collaboration fueled by scientists with expertise in drug discovery. This alliance gives us a global expertise, and provides a real opportunity to succeed, in terms of developing safe, effective and affordable new drugs," said Peter Ruminski, executive director of the Center for World Health & Medicine.
"Malaria is becoming increasingly resistant to current treatments. We need new classes of drugs to attack this deadly disease, which kills between one and three million people a year. We think it is important for there to be multiple therapeutic options for treating malaria, as there are for HIV or for bacterial infections, and this partnership will add significantly to efforts aimed at achieving that goal."
Tortorella said there is a real need for novel approaches to treat malaria, which is a devastating problem in China and in other parts of the developing world, including Africa.
"Every year there are between 300 and 500 million cases of malaria, primarily in the developing world, making it a global priority that currently is not being met. This is an international partnership between China and the United States, working on an international goal. Biologists and medicinal chemists from both of our organizations will work together," Tortorella said.
Considered a disease of poverty, malaria is spread by mosquitoes in tropical and subtropical regions.
"Diseases of poverty that are prevalent in the developing world have enormous health and socio-economic consequences," Ruminski said.
"What we're doing here - trying to find safe, effective and affordable new drugs - fits into the mission of Saint Louis University. We're helping those who are under-served. We want to make sure that everyone, regardless of whether they are rich or poor, has access to the newest drugs."
Tortorella looks forward to what could come from the collaboration with former colleagues.
"We started together and it's come full circle. We're now working together again, this time as part of an international partnership between China and the United States, working on an international goal. We're taking advantage of each other's expertise as we work together," Tortorella said. "I see us as pioneers."
Raymond Tait, Ph.D., vice president for research at Saint Louis University, echoed the pioneering sentiment.
"We have believed from the outset that the Center would forge innovative relationships as our scientists pursue new treatments for global diseases. I am delighted at the GIBH partnership and hope that it is the first of many such partnerships that the Center will form."
Established in 1836, Saint Louis University School of Medicine has the distinction of awarding the first medical degree west of the Mississippi River. The school educates physicians and biomedical scientists, conducts medical research, and provides health care on a local, national and international level. Research at the school seeks new cures and treatments in five key areas: cancer, infectious disease, liver disease, aging and brain disease and heart/lung disease.
This news release was issued on behalf of Newswise(TM). For more information, visit http://www.newswise.com.
SOURCE Saint Louis University Medical Center


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Page content
The Archaeological Materials Conservation Laboratory
Archaeological Materials
Recognizing the importance of local archaeological evidence to the accuracy of the reconstruction of Williamsburg, conservators of archaeological materials have been part of the Colonial Williamsburg Foundation since the 1930's. The current Archaeological Materials Conservation Laboratory continues the work begun at that early date. The purpose of archaeological conservation is to stabilize recovered objects, slow their deterioration, and provide as much information as possible to archaeologists to help them better understand the site and the way it was used. Stabilization may begin on site, with the careful support and lifting of fragile objects. It continues in the lab, with the removal of salts and other contaminants that have soaked into the object during burial. At each step there is the potential for discovery. Archaeological conservation is a collaborative process in which the object-based research complements and is informed by the work on the site itself.


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January 18, 2008
LOS ANGELES - The Chairman of the UCLA Anderson School of Management Board of Visitors (BOV), Eugene (Gene) S. Rosenfeld, announced today that the school has named three new members to its Board. Joining the UCLA Anderson BOV are the following industry leaders:
- A. Steven Crown, General Partner, Henry Crown & Company
- John J. Harris, Executive Vice President, Nestle S.A. and Chairman and CEO, Nestle Waters
- Ronald D. Sugar, Chairman and CEO, Northrop Grumman Corporation
"The unique insights and expert advice of BOV members is vital to our school's enduring growth and success," said Rosenfeld. "My fellow Board colleagues and I welcome these new members, who will enhance our collective efforts on behalf of UCLA Anderson."
"Board members are critical advisors and allies to us in all that we do to advance the excellence and contributions of UCLA Anderson," said Dean Judy D. Olian. "These extraordinary leaders will broaden our thinking and connections to additional industries and regions of the world."
The Board of Visitors of UCLA Anderson School of Management provides strategic guidance to the dean in advancing the school's mission. The Board was established to stimulate and support important strategic initiatives as well as outreach, globalization, communication, and fund-raising. The BOV consists of 60 senior global leaders who are seasoned executives as well as Board advisors. Their passion for higher education is reflected in their active engagement on the Board and in the school.
Bio Briefs on New UCLA Anderson Board of Visitors Members
A. Steven Crown, General Partner, Henry Crown & Company
Mr. Crown is a General Partner of Henry Crown & Company, a private investment firm based in Chicago. He is a Director of Farmers Investment Company (Sahuarita, Arizona), Evanston Northwestern Healthcare, YMCA of Metropolitan Chicago, The Family Institute, Gus Giordano Jazz Dance Chicago, the Anti-Defamation League of B'Nai B'rith, Council on Jewish Workplace Issues, and Arie Crown Hebrew Day School (Chicago). He is a Trustee of Claremont McKenna College and The Art Institute of Chicago. He is also a member of the Executive Committee, Compensation Committee, Investment Committee, Buildings and Grounds Committee, Modern Wing Oversight Committee, and Board of Governors of the School at The Art Institute of Chicago. Mr. Crown was elected to the Board of Trustees of Northwestern University in 1990 and serves on the Educational Policies and Appointments Committee and the Student Affairs Committee. He received his undergraduate degree from Claremont McKenna College, and an MBA from the University of California, Los Angeles.
John J. Harris, Executive Vice President, Nestle S.A. and Chairman and CEO, Nestle Waters
Mr. Harris has worked for the Nestle Company for over ten years, first as a senior vice president with the Worldwide Petcare Strategic Business Unit, based in Switzerland. He was then named president of the Friskies Petcare Company, and later went on to become the CEO of Nestle Purina Petcare Europe, receiving added responsibility of Asia, Oceania, and Africa. Today, Mr. Harris is an executive vice president with Nestle S.A. and the chairman and CEO of Nestle Waters. Before joining Nestle, Mr. Harris held various positions with the Carnation Company in Los Angeles. He serves as the chairman of the Pet Food Institute's Board of Directors. Mr. Harris received his BA from California State University and an MBA from the University of California, Los Angeles Graduate School of Business.
Ronald D. Sugar, Chairman and CEO, Northrop Grumman Corporation
Mr. Sugar joined Northrop Grumman following its 2001 acquisition of Litton Industries Inc., where he served as Litton's president and chief operating officer and as a member of its board of directors. Prior to joining Litton, Sugar was president and chief operating officer of TRW Aerospace and Information Systems. Earlier, he ran TRW's worldwide automotive electronics business and also served as TRW's chief financial officer. Mr. Sugar graduated summa cum laude in engineering from the University of California at Los Angeles, where he also received a master's degree and a doctorate in the same field. He subsequently completed executive education programs at Stanford University, the Wharton School, and Harvard University. He was honored by UCLA as Engineering Alumnus of the Year, and has received among other honors the Marine Corps Foundation's Semper Fidelis Award, the Air Force Association's John R. Alison Leadership to National Defense Award, the Army Distaff Foundation's Eisenhower Distinguished Citizen Award, and USC's Daniel J. Epstein Engineering Management Award. Sugar is a member of the National Academy of Engineering, a fellow of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, and a fellow of the Royal Aeronautical Society. He currently serves as national fundraising chairman of the Pearl Harbor Memorial Fund. He earlier was appointed by the President of the United States to the National Security Telecommunications Advisory Committee. He also is a national trustee of the Boys & Girls Clubs of America, a director of the Los Angeles Philharmonic Association, a trustee of the University of Southern California, and a member of the board of directors of Chevron Corporation.
About UCLA Anderson School of Management
UCLA Anderson School of Management, established in 1935, is regarded among the very best business schools in the world. UCLA Anderson faculty are ranked #1 in "Intellectual Capital" by BusinessWeek and are renowned for their teaching excellence and research in advancing management thinking. Each year, UCLA Anderson provides management education to more than 1,600 students enrolled in MBA, Executive MBA, Fully-Employed MBA and doctoral programs, and to more than 2,000 professional managers through executive education programs. Combining highly selective admissions, varied and innovative learning programs, and a world-wide network of 35,000 alumni, UCLA Anderson develops and prepares global leaders.


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Is Kelly Clarkson Getting Married This Weekend?
There have been a lot of changes in Kelly Clarkson's life lately in relation to her wedding to Brandon Blackstock, who is Blake Shelton's manager and Reba McEntire's stepson.
The couple called off their original plans for a big, splashy ceremony, saying they would instead eventually elope and swap vows on a more intimate scale. One thing that probably hasn't changed? The date. It looks like Clarkson and Blackstock will get married this weekend.
Astute fans will recall that her Save the Date invites revealed a date of Oct. 20 -- that's this Sunday.
E! reports that the duo secured their marriage license in the Nashville area on Tuesday (Oct. 15). Clarkson and Blackstock showed up in person to obtain the document, as required by law.
The license is only valid for 30 days from the date it's issued, so it wouldn't shock us if the couple's big day turned out to be this weekend. Clarkson has a taping for her Christmas special at the end of the month, so she has limited time to get the deed done, so to speak!
The singer is said to be wearing a Temperley dress when she and Blackstock wed. We wish the couple the best and can't wait to see photos!


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Welcome to SF State!
Student Outreach Services (SOS) coordinates the overall University outreach program. The SOS staff provides preadmissions information regarding minimum eligibility requirements to the University, academic majors and programs, and other related matters (e.g. campus tours, housing, student services, special admisson programs, general policies and procedures) which are of interest to prospective undergraduate students. In addition to meeting with future students at their school sites or on campus at SF State, SOS staff members participate in local community and educational equity projects.


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Headlines archive
Wisconsin Supreme Court accepts five new cases
Madison, Wisconsin - November 27, 2013
The Wisconsin Supreme Court has voted to accept five new cases and acted to deny review in a number of other cases. The case numbers, issues, and county of origin are listed below. The Court of Appeals' opinion for the newly accepted case is hyperlinked where available.
2011AP2907-CR State v. Brown
This Fourth Amendment case examines the legality of a traffic stop that started as a possible defective tail light violation, and ultimately resulted in charges of felon in possession of a firearm against Antonio D. Brown.
The Supreme Court reviews whether the Court of Appeals properly concluded that a tail lamp that is 66-percent functional is in "good working order" as required under Wis. Stat. § 347.13(1), and thus cannot serve as a basis for an officer's probable cause to stop the vehicle.
The Supreme Court also may consider this case in light of the U.S. Supreme Court's decision in Arizona v. Gant, 556 U.S. 332 (April 21, 2009). Gant holds that an officer who makes an arrest for a traffic offense can only search the vehicle incident to that arrest if (1) at the time of the search, the arrestee is unsecured and within arms' reach of the passenger compartment, or (2) it is reasonable to believe that evidence related to the crime of arrest is located within the passenger compartment.
Some background: Police stopped Brown's vehicle for a defective tail light. Brown himself was riding as a passenger in the backseat of his own vehicle. He was intoxicated and a friend was driving the car. There was also a woman riding in the front passenger seat.
Police testified they stopped the car on July 3, 2010 at about 9:30 p.m. in an area known for drug deals, just as the car was pulling over to park. Several squad cars were involved. Police officers testified they saw Brown make a movement, like he was kicking something under the car seat. All occupants of the vehicle were removed and handcuffed and sat on the curb. Police then shone a flashlight into the open car door, under the rear passenger seat and saw the gun. Although there was conflicting testimony about whether the butt of the gun was visible or not, this is not a "plain view" case. None of the individuals were cited or ticketed for the equipment violation.
Brown moved to suppress the gun on the grounds that the police lacked probable cause or reasonable suspicion to stop the vehicle. After detailed testimony about the vehicle's rear lights and which particular bulbs may or may not have been lit at a given time, the circuit court denied Brown's motion to suppress.
The circuit court found the driver's testimony that he noticed that all of the lights on the 1977 Buick Electra were fully operational before the stop was not credible. The court found the officers' testimony credible and that they were justified in stopping the vehicle. The court subsequently noted during a plea hearing that due to the operational design of the tail lights, it may have been difficult for officers to determine which bulbs inside the tail light panels were supposed to be lit at any given moment.
Brown pled guilty to possession of a firearm by a felon and was sentenced to five years of imprisonment, composed of three years of initial confinement and two years of extended supervision, concurrently with his extended-supervision-revocation sentence.
The circuit court denied Brown's motion for post-conviction relief, explaining that "[e]ven if the defendant had brought [§ 347.13(1)] to the court's attention [during the suppression hearing], the result would have been the same."
Brown appealed, contending that the officers' stop of the vehicle was predicated on a mistake of law because § 347.13(1) does not require that all of a vehicle's tail lights be lit. The Court of Appeals agreed and reversed.
A decision by the Supreme Court could clarify § 347.13(1) and whether an officer's observation of a partially operating tail lamp on a vehicle supplies probable cause to make a stop. From Milwaukee County.
2012AP150-CR State v. Nellessen
This case examines whether a criminal defendant who wants to compel the state to disclose the identity of an informer must make a preliminary showing that the informer could possibly give specifically delineated testimony that could create a reasonable doubt about the defendant's guilt by supporting the asserted theory of defense.
Some background: On June 28, 2011, Jason Punke, a City of Marshfield police officer, stopped a vehicle driven by Jessica A. Nellessen. Nellessen had four passengers. Punke testified that he stopped the vehicle because of an obstructed view violation. Punke testified that while checking the passengers for identification, he smelled a raw odor of marijuana. He then searched the passenger compartment of the car and found a prescription bottle containing a small amount of marijuana. Another Marshfield police officer, James Cramm, testified that in a subsequent search, a larger amount of marijuana, approximately 14 ounces, was found hidden inside a computer located in the trunk of the car.
Nellessen was charged with one count of possession with intent to deliver THC. Nellessen filed a motion to suppress any evidence obtained as a result of the search of her vehicle. She argued that her vehicle was stopped without reasonable suspicion and that her vehicle was searched without a warrant or probable cause.
At the suppression hearing, Cramm testified that prior to the stop, he had received "a tip from another detective that this car would be coming through Marshfield and that it contained approximately a pound of marijuana."
The detective "had received [the information] from a confidential informant." Cramm further testified that Punke was aware of the confidential tip and that the tip was part of the reason that Officer Punke had stopped Nellessen's vehicle. Cramm testified: "My instructions to Punke were to find a violation to stop the vehicle."
Following the hearing on her motion to suppress, Nellessen moved to compel disclosure of the identity of the confidential informant pursuant to Wis. Stat. § 905.10(3)(b). Nellessen "adamantly denied any knowledge of the large quantity of controlled substances in her vehicle." She argued that "whether [she] was aware of the large quantity of marijuana in her vehicle" would "be the critical issue at trial."
Nellessen further alleged that she needed to know the identity of the informant because "[i]f the informant knew the direction of travel [of Nellessen's vehicle] and the existence of controlled substances in the vehicle," it was a "reasonable [inference] that the informant [might] also know whether [Nellessen] was aware that the marijuana [was] in the vehicle."
The circuit court denied Nellessen's motion to compel disclosure. The court found that Nellessen had not sufficiently shown how disclosure of the informant's identity "pertain[ed] particularly to the facts of [her] guilt or innocence."
Nellessen sought leave to appeal. The Court of Appeals granted her request for discretionary appeal and reversed.
On appeal, Nellessen argued that the circuit court erred in refusing to conduct an in camera review. She asserted that the court should have determined whether there was reason to believe that the confidential informant may be able to provide testimony "necessary to a fair determination of [Nellessen's] guilt or innocence," pursuant to § 905.10(3)(b).
According to the Court of Appeals, the question before the circuit court was therefore whether the informant might have information that bears on "whether Nellessen was aware that the marijuana was in her trunk," citing State v. Outlaw, 108 Wis. 2d 112, 124-26, 321 N.W.2d 145 (1982).
The court then observed that here, the informer in question provided a considerable amount of detail to the police regarding the transportation of the marijuana: the model of the motor vehicle; the route of travel; the approximate amount of marijuana involved; and that the marijuana was located in the trunk. The court deemed it reasonable to infer from the information provided by the informer to the police that there is a "possibility" that the informer could supply testimony necessary to a fair determination of whether Nellessen was aware that the marijuana was in the trunk of her vehicle at the time the police stopped her in Marshfield.
The state argues that even if the informer says that Nellessen was not present when the marijuana was placed into the trunk, or that she did not take part in any conversation regarding the conspiracy, that this is not sufficient because Nellessen could have learned of the presence of marijuana in her trunk in some manner of which the informer was unaware.
The state further argues that whether Nellessen was present when the marijuana was placed into the trunk or participated in particular conversations about the conspiracy, while relevant, is not sufficient to trigger the in camera review because relevancy is not the issue.
A decision from the Supreme Court could clarify the threshold to justify an in camera review or disclosure of information related to confidential informants. From Wood County.
2012AP392 State Farm v. Hague Quality Water
This case involves a dispute over financial responsibility for property damage caused when a water softener that was installed by a landlord failed at a rental property.
The Supreme Court examines the economic loss doctrine and whether tort claims are precluded because – as determined by the Court of Appeals here – the water softener is not part of an integrated system with the drywall, flooring, and woodwork that was damaged.
Some background: Larry Krueger purchased a water softener from Menards and installed it in a rental house he owned. The water softener was manufactured by Hague Quality Water, International. The limited warranty provided that in the event of a defect, Hague would repair or replace the defective parts but would not be responsible for any "incidental, consequential or secondary damages."
Two years later the water softener failed, causing nearly $45,000 in damage to the drywall, flooring and woodwork in Krueger's home. Krueger's loss was covered by Krueger's homeowners insurance policy issued by State Farm Fire and Casualty Company, and he was reimbursed for the loss. State Farm then filed suit against Hague and its insurer, The Cincinnati Insurance Company, alleging tort claims for the defective water softener.
Hague moved for summary judgment, contending that all of State Farm's damages were economic and, therefore, precluded by the economic loss doctrine. The circuit court agreed and dismissed State Farm's complaint on the grounds that the economic loss doctrine barred recovery. The economic loss doctrine bars the recovery of purely economic losses in consumer transactions through tort remedies where the only damage is to the product purchased by the consumer.
The Court of Appeals reversed in a published decision.
The Court of Appeals stated that "a defective product must be integral to the function of the damaged property before the defective product and the damaged property may be considered part of the same integrated system." The court then concluded that "the damaged property in this action—the drywall, flooring, and woodwork—are not part of an integrated system with the water softener."
Hague and its insurer, the Cincinnati Insurance Company, appealed to the Supreme Court. A decision by the Supreme Court could clarify how the warranty and economic loss doctrine may affect insurance coverage under the circumstances presented here. Justice David T. Prosser did not participate. From Sheboygan County.
2012AP667 Casey v. Smith
This case involves a dispute between two insurers over coverage for an accident that occurred while a semi-truck was being driven to the shop to have the front grille and an oil filler tube replaced. The Supreme Court examines the what is known in insurance circles as a "truckmen's endorsement."
A resolution in this case could depend, at least in part, on a determination of whether the truck was being driven for business purposes on behalf of a freight company at the time of the accident or not.
Some background: Interstate trucking lines often lease equipment, with drivers, in order to avoid the expense of owning their own vehicles and employing their own drivers. Federal regulations govern many aspects of these leasing arrangements, including the procurement of liability insurance coverage. Lessees generally attempt to restrict their potential liability to those times when the vehicle is being put to its business use. Additional insurance coverage is required to protect the lessor during those periods when the truck is not being used for trucking purposes. This additional coverage, or "truckmen's endorsement," customarily exempts the truck and/or trailer from coverage when it is used to carry property in any business or while used in the business of anyone to whom the truck is rented or leased.
In this case, John Zeverino owned and operated a 1993 Freightliner. He leased the vehicle to Taylor Truck Line, Inc. for which he worked as an independent contractor. Acceptance Casualty Insurance Co. issued a non-trucking use automobile policy to Zeverino; Great West Casualty Co. issued a commercial automobile policy to Taylor Truck Line.
The lease agreement stated that Zeverino would use the truck "to transport, load and unload on behalf of [Taylor Truck Line] . . . such traffic as [Taylor Truck Line] may from time to time make available to [Zeverino.]" The agreement further specified that Taylor Truck Line would have "exclusive possession, control and use" of the truck and would "assume complete responsibility to the public for the operation of [the truck]" during the term of the lease. It also provided that Zeverino would be responsible for "[m]aintaining the [truck] in the state of repair required by all regulations" and would bear all repair and maintenance expenses.
Taylor Truck Line agreed "to provide and maintain insurance coverage for the protection of the public from damage to persons and property[.]" However, Taylor Truck Line's insurance would be in effect only when the truck was "being operated in the exclusive service of [Taylor Truck Line] and while actually engaged in transportation for [Taylor Truck Line.]" Zeverino, in turn, agreed to carry insurance for when the truck is not used for business purposes under the contract, or non-trucking insurance.
In accordance with the lease agreement, Taylor Truck Line obtained a commercial automobile policy from Great West, which provided $1,000,000 in liability coverage; Zeverino obtained a non-trucking use policy from Acceptance Casualty, which also had a $1 million liability limit. Zeverino's non-trucking use policy from Acceptance Casualty had two exclusions that are at issue here.
Zeverino was on the way to a truck dealership to have a damaged grille and oil filler tube replaced when he was involved in an accident with three other vehicles, including one driven by Brian Casey – the plaintiff in this case. Zeverino was not in route for Taylor Truck line at the time of the accident, but had entered in his driver's log that he was "driving," rather than "off duty."
At his deposition, Zeverino testified he "needed to get [the grille] repaired" because it was "already starting to fall apart and fall off on the highway." A State Patrol accident report after the accident noted that no violations were discovered during the inspection, even after the accident.
At the accident scene, Zeverino logged himself as "on duty (not driving)" on his driver's daily log. Following the accident, he drove the truck to FABCO, where the grille and oil filler tube were replaced as planned.
Casey subsequently sued Zeverino and several other defendants, asserting personal injury claims. Great West and Acceptance Casualty disagreed over which of their policies covered Casey's claims. Both insurers agreed that one, but not both, of their policies afforded coverage. They also agreed that resolution of the coverage issue turned on whether Zeverino was operating the truck "in the business of" Taylor Truck Line at the time of the accident. If so, Great West's commercial automobile policy provided coverage; if not, Acceptance Casualty's non-trucking use policy provided coverage.
Both sides moved for summary judgment. The trial court agreed with Great West that Zeverino was not acting "in the business of" Taylor Truck Line at the time of the accident. As a result, the court concluded the Acceptance Casualty policy, not the Great West policy, provided coverage. Acceptance Casualty appealed, unsuccessfully. The Court of Appeals agreed with the trial court's ruling that the truck was not being used "in the business of" Taylor Truck Line at the time of the accident. From Dunn County.
2012AP1812 County of Grant v. Vogt
This case examines whether an officer who approaches a vehicle without probable cause or reasonable suspicion that a violation of the law has been committed, and then knocks on the window and motions for the driver to roll down his window, unreasonably seizes the driver.
Some background: At 1 a.m. on Christmas Day 2011, a police officer observed a vehicle pull into a Cassville public boat landing and stop with its lights on. The officer testified at trial that because of the time of year, the time of night, and the fact that the park closes at 11 p.m. (though not necessarily the parking lot itself), he called the vehicle in as suspicious and pulled his squad car into the boat landing where he parked behind the vehicle.
The officer testified that when he parked behind the vehicle, he did not activate his emergency lights. The officer testified that he approached the driver's side window of the vehicle, where he observed Daniel A. Vogt in the driver's seat of the vehicle and an unidentified woman in the passenger seat. The officer testified that he knocked on the driver's side window of the vehicle and motioned for the driver to roll the window down. The officer further testified that once the window was rolled down, he smelled the odor of intoxicants and observed that Vogt's speech was slurred.
Grant County charged Vogt with OWI. Vogt filed a motion to suppress, challenging the lawfulness of his detention. The trial court denied Vogt's motion following an evidentiary hearing at which only the officer testified. The trial court observed that "this is a close case," but found that the officer's initial contact with Vogt did not amount to a seizure.
Following the denial of Vogt's motion to suppress, the case was tried before the court. The officer testified that he had approached Vogt's vehicle, rapped on its window and asked Vogt for his driver's license. The officer testified that while he was talking with Vogt, he noticed that Vogt's speech was slurred and he observed the odor of intoxicants coming from the vehicle.
Vogt testified that he did not believe that he had any alternative to rolling down his window and that his options for voluntarily driving away were limited by obstacles, including the Mississippi River, a vending machine and the location of the officer and the patrol car.
Following the presentation of evidence, Vogt renewed his motion to suppress. The trial court denied Vogt's motion to suppress and found Vogt guilty of OWI.
Vogt appealed, and the Court of Appeals found in Vogt's favor, finding that "here it is not the officer's approach or request to see Vogt's license that represents the seizure. Rather, it is the officer's actions indicating that Vogt should comply with the officer's directive to roll down his window and speak with him."
In appealing to the Supreme Court, the County argues that officers "need to and should be able to approach a motor vehicle and talk to the occupants no differently than an officer would be able to approach a person sitting on a park bench." The County also argues that, especially in wintertime in Wisconsin, an officer ought to be able to knock on a car window and motion for a driver to roll the window down without transforming the approach and encounter into an unreasonable seizure. The County argues that the Court of Appeals' decision "renders officers unable to approach occupants of vehicles during the winter and to engage in voluntary conversations."
Vogt accuses the County of wanting this court to establish a bright-line rule, whereby an officer may always approach a vehicle and knock on the window without the encounter amounting to an unreasonable seizure. Vogt also argues that, under the circumstances of this case, a reasonable person would not feel free to ignore the officer's directive. From Grant County.
Review denied: The Supreme Court denied review in the following cases. As the state's law-developing court, the Supreme Court exercises its discretion to select for review only those cases that fit certain statutory criteria (see Wis. Stat. § 809.62). Except where indicated, these cases came to the Court via petition for review by the party who lost in the lower court:
2012AP1313 Anderson v. Hebert
Justice Patience Drake Roggensack dissents.
2012AP751/53 Payday Loan Store v. Krueger/Williams
2013AP910-W Grube v. Akkeren
2011AP2928-CR State v. Nack - Chief Justice Shirley S. Abrahamson dissents.
2011AP2384-CR State v. Sanders - Chief Justice Shirley S. Abrahamson and Justice Ann Walsh Bradley dissent.
2012AP724 City of S. Milwaukee v. Kester - Chief Justice Shirley S. Abrahamson and Justice Ann Walsh Bradley dissent. Justice David T. Prosser, Jr. did not participate.
2013AP413 State v. Roy W.
2011AP2550 Chase Home Finance v. Scarpace
2012AP90 Whiteaker v. Black - Justice David T. Prosser, Jr. dissents.
2012AP1498-CR State v. Gimino - Chief Justice Shirley S. Abrahamson and Justice Ann Walsh Bradley dissent.
2012AP311 Riley v. Extendicare - Justice Patience Drake Roggensack dissents.
St. Croix
2011AP1315 Dierks v. Jensen
2012AP856-CR State v. Wolff - Chief Justice Shirley S. Abrahamson dissents.
Tom Sheehan
Court Information Officer
(608) 261-6640


text:
3-In-1 Suntouched Massage CandleItem #179R
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text:
OK, so suppose I am not interested in measuring small fluctuations in the force of gravity, because I am not looking for buried iron ore deposits or big meteors.Suppose I want to measure the direction of the graviational force, and I want to do this from a moving platform like a car or an aircraft.If I get a 3D MEMS accelerometer, that will do a good job if the vehicle is stationary or moving at a constant velocity, but otherwise, it won't.Is there another way to measure the direction of the gravitational force which will work in an erratically moving vehicle ?
How about a magnetometer if you only want to measure the direction of the acceleration due to gravity. I am pretty sure that a magnetometer will not be affected by linear or rotational acceleration.
This reminds me of how we measured it back in high school...It involved a battery operated bell and a huge long strip (as long as the drop from the window to the ground) of carbon paper with a weight on the end. Then dropped the weight while the bell was ringing, with the strip between the bell and the ringer lever thingy. The impact of the ringer made marks on the carbon paper, and of course the marks got further apart as the weight accelerated. Measured the time it took to drop from the science lab window to the ground. Counted the total number of marks. That gave the number of marks per second or seconds per mark. Measured the (varying) distance between marks. That, with the now known time between marks, gave the (varying) velocity at any instant.And hence the acceleration....But using a pendulum is by far the easiest way to do it... (As long as the bob is very heavy compared to the string, the whole mass may be deemed to be at the bob's CoG.) Beauty of the pendulum method is that since the period T is constant regardless of how wide the swing is, it can as suggested above be measured over 100s of swings and that reduces the impact of the reaction time when the stop watch is started and stopped.
Well the idea is, if you know the accelerations and gyro readings in 3D, then you can calculate the change in orientation. But you get variations and drift in the gyro readings which make this not actually work in practise. You need to keep correcting the gyro-derived orientation using some other means, and two of the available means are the direction of "down" and the direction of the earth's magnetic field.The problem is, a lot of the feasible schemes for doing this ( for example, read Magdwick's papers ) kind of assume that the acceleration of the body is small and that therefore the accelerometer reading indicates the direction of gravity ( either "up" or "down" ). I've developed another scheme which also works and has the advantage ( for me ) that I can understand it.It would be useful to have some means of identifying the direction of gravity independently from acceleration but I guess if Einstein says you can't, we it is probably right. Now a very small higgs boson detector might be able to detect the direction where they are coming from, independent of the actual motion of the device.


text:
 International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde said in the closing moments of the annual gathering in the snowy Swiss ski resort on Saturday that she recommended the "do not relax principle" for the coming year. Where for the two previous years a sense of crisis had hung over the World Economic Forum, the mood was sunnier at the 2013 edition as speaker after speaker said they were now cautiously optimistic. "I feel the circumstances in which I'm addressing you today are very different than 12 months ago," said Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti in his opening speech, following a torrid year dominated by the euro crisis. European central banker Mario Draghi meanwhile hailed 2012 as the year that the troubled single currency was "relaunched", even as others were hailing him as the man who had saved the eurozone from catastrophe. The Chinese economy's slowdown seemed less serious than a year ago to the participants while the step back from the fiscal cliff in the United States also eased minds. But as the 2,500 world leaders, financial officials, tycoons and journalists departed the picture-postcard Alpine resort, they may have felt a chill that was not just down to the subzero temperatures. Lagarde said the IMF's forecast of a "very fragile and timid recovery for 2013" was based on "eurozone leaders, the US authorities on the other hand and the Japanese authorities making the right decisions." She added: "And that's what I mean by 'do not relax' because some good policy decisions have been made in various parts of the world. In 2013, they have to keep the momentum." The head of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Angel Gurria, warned meanwhile that countries had exhausted most room for manoeuvre in terms of fiscal and monetary policy. "We should be very worried because the lack of room for some of the more traditional tools has gone and we are left with very few of these tools," he said.  'Mood of complacency'

 As in previous years the Davos forum was partly hijacked by external events, particularly after British Prime Minister David Cameron vowed to hold a referendum on European Union membership by the end of 2017. The move threatened to cause a stir, with Cameron's European counterparts worried about the effect the uncertainty would have on the euro's already fragile recovery, but they left any rows for another day.

 The turmoil in the Arab world also took centre stage for a time as officials including Jordan's King Abdullah II urged "desperately needed" action over Syria's civil war, though none came. Amid the cocktail parties and lavish luncheons at Davos this year there was sometimes a "mood of complacency", said Axel Weber, the chairman of Swiss bank UBS and former head of Germany's Bundesbank. "My biggest fear is that 2013 could be a replay of 2012, another lost year," he said.

 "We shouldn't be complacent, we haven't really fundamentally improved that much." Many were still worried by the euro.

 The Deloitte financial group's global chief executive Barry Salzberg told AFP he was "reasonably comfortable, with one exception — and that is what's the impact on the US from Europe." Other officials expressed fears that governments would increasingly lean on central banks, which have often been the heroes of the fragile global recovery in the past two years, instead of taking action themselves. But in many ways it was business as usual at Davos, with world leaders huddling in private and corporate deals sewn up on the sidelines, such as a $10 billion shale gas deal between Ukraine and oil giant Royal Dutch Shell. Even a noisy protest on Sunday by three topless, pink-flare-waving women from a Ukrainian feminist group failed to shock — they had targeted Davos the previous year too.


text:
Glen & Tyler's Honeymoon Adventure
Hardcover, 323 Pages
Price: $35.99
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Tyler can't inherit unless he gets married ... and when Glen proposes, hijinks ensue. Follow the guys on their world-spanning adventure as they defeat mobsters, an evil step-mother, a rakish brother-in-law and pirates. No, really -- pirates! Plus there's an underground super-base. And hockey. Come for the romance, stay for the hockey.
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Product Details
- 9781257809363
- Copyright
- JB Sanders (Standard Copyright License)
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- July 18, 2011
- Language
- English
- Pages
- 323
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- Hardcover (dust-jacket)
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- 1.12 lbs.
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Hollywood's gotten a little ironic as of late. With throwbacks to the cheese of yesteryear – The Expendibles, Piranha 3D and Predators, just in the past two months – the studios have been willing to play with low-brow entertainment while winking at the audience. But like Snakes on a Plane proved, making a bad movie good isn't as easy as it seems, and those aforementioned aforementioned movies worked to varying degrees (godsend Piranha 3D aside).
So how does Machete, a movie with the unpublicized catchphrase "You just fucked with the wrong Mexican," fulfill fanboy dreams of silly cinema? Pretty well, it turns out.
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