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What country and place would you most like to visit and why? A hunting reserve in Africa. I want to keep adding trophy heads to my collection.
It'll al depend on Wynona here. She doesn't seem as enthused about the race as Chuck is. Fireworks potential between these two.
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Hear the untold stories of enslaved people and learn about historical and contemporary slavery.
Historical and contemporary slavery.
A beautiful building housing one of the UK's finest collections of fine and decorative art.
Paintings, Wedgwood and Chinese ceramics.
Uncover objects from the Titanic, find out about life at sea and learn about the port of Liverpool.
The Titanic, life at sea and Liverpool's port.
This museum tells the story of Liverpool with diverse exhibits housed in a stunning building.
Liverpool's history and popular culture.
Explore a Victorian merchant's house with its period furniture and beautiful paintings.
Paintings, vintage fashion and furniture.
Beautiful paintings, sculpture and decorative art from the 13th century to the present day.
Paintings, sculpture and decorative art.
Discover treasures from around the world, explore outer space and meet live creatures!
World cultures, space and live creatures.
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Please note that this exhibition has now closed
© Stephen King
This exhibition of photography taken in Lewis's, one of the UK's oldest and most iconic department stores which sadly closed in summer 2010, revealed a world that had been hidden since the early 1980s.
The fifth floor, with its hair salon, cafeteria and restaurants, was the epitome of style in the 1950s. Three decades later the entire floor closed to the public and it was used for storage for the final few decades that Lewis's was open. Local photographer Stephen King has beautifully captured the faded glamour of this lost world, including many of the original features.
Largely empty at the time that Stephen photographed it, the floor was once a bustling hive of activity. In addition to stunning views of the interiors, the exhibition included a series of portraits of employees from several decades, photographed in their original place of work, with reminiscences of life at Lewis's during that era. Their presence injected life into the spectral setting of the now deserted floor.
Also included in the exhibition was an artist documentary filmed and produced by Jacqueline Passmore. The film examined the impact of Lewis's heyday through interviews with staff from the fifth floor.
The exhibition was developed by Neutral Spoon art project management, supported by The National Lottery through Arts Council England.
Further information is available on the Stephen King photography website.
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National Museums Liverpool
© Copyright 2019


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While it's late in the game, the economic expansion should have stamina, and a constructive—yet vigilant—approach to financial markets is warranted.
Global Insight 2019 Outlook
The world's infrastructure is in line for a 21st century upgrade. We look at how this theme can enhance the infrastructure of investment portfolios.
7 minute read >
The World Economic Forum estimates the world underinvests in infrastructure each year to the tune of a US$1 trillion. Commuters everywhere will not be surprised.
Infrastructure spending not only improves convenience and safety, but also productivity, as poor roads and delayed flights hold back economic growth. With such obvious benefits, why the underinvestment?
Years ago, governments found it far easier to approve infrastructure projects. After WWII a strong public consensus developed everywhere as to the desirability of undertaking large projects that would stimulate growth and put people to work, while modernizing the infrastructure asset base to support a rapidly changing industrial society.
The U.S. Interstate Highway System (built out over 35 years from the late 1950s), high-speed auto routes across Europe, bullet trains in Japan followed by high speed trains in Europe, and massive airports everywhere—these projects were not only sources of national pride, but added substantially to wealth and productivity.
But in today's world, long development times mean politicians who authorize infrastructure projects often take criticism for massive budgets, possible cost overruns, and disturbance, but seldom remain in power long enough to take any credit for the benefits. In the U.S. and elsewhere, the complexity of infrastructure projects is compounded by the required involvement of regional, local, and national governments, which often have conflicting priorities.
The need to overcome these challenges is clear to all, and the need to boost infrastructure spending is one of the few areas of bipartisan agreement in the U.S. Yet a split Congress may make it difficult for any substantial infrastructure bill to pass.
Tangible plans to increase infrastructure commitments are emerging in other countries, as shown in the box below. We expect more national infrastructure initiatives in the future. Fiscal policy will likely play a larger role in counteracting the next recession, given interest rates are unlikely to have room to fall far enough to lever the economy higher unaided. Central banks could conceivably play a role: the Bank of England, Bank of Japan, or the European Central Bank could buy infrastructure bonds, or bonds issued by a state-controlled infrastructure bank.
Two big changes have occurred within infrastructure investment over the past 40 years: firstly, the expansion of the private sector's role; and secondly, the considerable broadening of the asset class.
Faced with the increasing scale, complexity, and financing needs of infrastructure projects, governments have sought more private sector participation. Meanwhile pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and insurance companies have found long life infrastructure assets often match the long-term liabilities they deal with. Infrastructure projects also offer a reliable cash flow once up and running, often including an inflation adjustment mechanism.
CHINA: "One Belt One Road" initiative (OBOR)
GERMANY: Federal Infrastructure Plan
INDIA: Prime Minister Narendra Modi's plan
EUROPEAN UNION: The "Juncker Plan"
CANADA: The Canada Infrastructure Bank (CIB)
JAPAN: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's plan
* PwC estimate, if plan is fully implemented.
Source - RBC Wealth Management
The traditional universe of infrastructure projects—bridges, roads, and power generation—has expanded to include rapid transit systems, high speed rail, airports, electricity transmission grids, harbours, and hospitals. Newcomers include: student housing; assisted living accommodation allowing retirees to live closer to healthcare and hospitals; the build-out of 5G, the fifth generation of mobile internet connectivity bringing greater speed and the ability to connect many more devices simultaneously; construction and maintenance of cell tower arrays; and networks of charging stations for electric vehicles.
Infrastructure investments should perform relatively well in the economic environment we foresee prevailing over the coming decade. Most infrastructure sectors benefit from economic growth and inflation to some extent, while demand tends to be relatively resilient in downturns.
Higher interest rates may make the investment environment more challenging as infrastructure assets tend to be financed by debt, but the impact will depend on the capital structure and return potential of each project.
Infrastructure investments can offer valuable diversification benefits. Most deliver an income stream from low-risk, stable assets that would be less affected by an economic downturn. This should mean infrastructure investments will hold up better than the overall market in a downturn.
How effective a diversification tool they are will depend on the investment. Like all asset classes, infrastructure projects are subject to a broad spectrum of risks. At one end are less risky projects, such as conventional power generation in developed economies where costs can be controlled, demand can be more confidently assessed, and the regulatory environment can be relied upon. At the other extreme are unconventional "greenfield" projects in emerging economies where costs can escalate, contracts can be more difficult to enforce, sponsoring governments can change abruptly, and currency volatility can make returns unpredictable. Riskier infrastructure investments behave more like risky equities, potentially reducing or eliminating the diversification benefits of the asset class.
Infrastructure investment options include individual stocks, funds, or a combination of both. For single stocks, investors could focus on listed utilities, pipelines, or railways; industrial companies providing equipment, engineering services, or materials for projects; or companies that manage infrastructure assets.
For funds, the most significant benefit is the ability to diversify across industries, geographies, and the risk spectrum. Experienced fund managers are well-placed to assess not only each project's complexities, but also political, regulatory, and currency risks. Some factors to consider when choosing a fund include:
Infrastructure as an investment theme has a long life ahead of it. The demand for repair, replacement, and upgrading of existing infrastructure assets is immense across the developed world. Emerging economies need equally massive infrastructure investment to achieve economic and social goals.
The private sector has become an important source of infrastructure financing. Long-lived assets that provide a predictable stream of income, often inflation-adjusted, offer an attractive alternative for the trillions earning little or nothing in bank accounts ($9T in U.S. bank accounts alone), or for the trillions more that have flowed into lower-quality corporate and emerging market debt in recent years. We expect individual investors will discover the attractions of this asset class to a much greater extent over the coming decade.
Required disclosures
Research resources
Note: Data in the equity section reflects forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios based on Bloomberg consensus earnings forecasts for the next 12 months. Data as of 11/15/18.
Non-U.S. Analyst Disclosure: Christopher Girdler, and Patrick McAllister, employees of RBC Wealth Management USA's foreign affiliate RBC Dominion Securities Inc.; and Frédérique Carrier, Laura Cooper, and Alastair Whitfield, employees of RBC Wealth Management USA's foreign affiliate Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (U.K.) Limited; Jay Roberts, an employee of RBC Investment Services (Asia) Limited; Chun-Him Tam, an employee of Royal Bank of Canada, Singapore Branch; contributed to the preparation of this publication. These individuals are not registered with or qualified as research analysts with the U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ("FINRA") and, since they are not associated persons of RBC Wealth Management, they may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 governing communications with subject companies, the making of public appearances, and the trading of securities in accounts held by research analysts.
In Quebec, financial planning services are provided by RBC Wealth Management Financial Services Inc. which is licensed as a financial services firm in that province. In the rest of Canada, financial planning services are available through RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
The explosion of AI technology is creating real opportunities for investment strategy.
By Iryna Drobysheva & Juan Aronna
Artificial intelligence (AI) has been dominating the headlines—all the way from the transformative opportunities it can bring to society, businesses, and governments, to the science fiction doomsday scenarios. There is a great amount of hype surrounding AI, and the first step to assess the extent of its impact is to remove the mystery and understand what it has to offer.
AI is an "umbrella" concept, covering a wide range of disciplines and technologies, including machine learning, deep learning, and cognitive computing, among others.
The "intelligence" aspect of AI is at the root of what the technology can do—intelligence is the capacity to connect comprehension with logic, which results in the ability to draw conclusions from previous experiences. Humans process information like this day in and day out, without even thinking about it. As such, AI can be interpreted as a set of algorithms (logic), programs (instructions to a computer), and statistical models that interact to replicate an output very similar to that of human intelligence.
However, AI is unable to connect insights or understand specifically why something is happening—another key aspect of human thinking. A book published by New Scientist on the topic states that "AI can't strip us of our jobs, our dignity or our human rights. Only other humans can do that." This suggests that humans are ultimately responsible for their future. In other words, at this stage it's humans who control AI, not the other way around.
Source - Goodfellow, Ian, Bengio, Yoshua, and Courville, Aaron. Deep Learning. MIT Press, 2016. www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html.
While AI might seem like a very 21st century concept, it is not new. The term was coined in 1956 and AI went through alternating phases of early development followed by hibernation. During the 1970s and later in the 1990s, research progress completely stalled for nearly two decades—what became dubbed the "AI winters"—due to unfulfilled promises and lack of funding.
Its revival has been driven by a simultaneous improvement of factors never seen before: the availability of immensely large volumes of data (big data), the advancement of machine learning algorithms, cheap data storage, and increased computing capacity via graphics processing units (GPUs) that meaningfully reduce computation time. AI would not be fully viable without any one of these improvements. For example, consider the dramatic decline in storage costs that enables AI users to store previously unimagined quantities of data, so much data that it is doubling in size every two years. In 1980 one gigabyte of storage cost $437,000; by 2016 the cost had plunged to just under $0.02.
Even though we can loosely define AI, there is no uniform definition that everyone agrees on. A philosopher would look at it from an existential point of view, but a computer scientist would evaluate a machine's ability to perform tasks requiring human intelligence and an economist might look at AI's impact on GDP growth.
In general, most references to AI revolve around three main stages of development: Artificial Narrow Intelligence, Artificial General Intelligence, and Artificial Super Intelligence (defined in the table below). However, it is crucial to recognize that only one, Artificial Narrow Intelligence, is mature today, while the hype about AI taking over the world refers to the other two areas in nascent stages.
Some see the potential for significant leaps in AI, especially related to the human brain. Futurist and Google's Director of Engineering Ray Kurzweil suggests that for the last 4,000 years the human brain has been "limited by a fixed architecture of enclosure" and AI has the ability to "expand our neocortex"—the part of the brain responsible for higher functions—in quantity and quality. During a TED Talk he said that "if you need some extra neocortex, you'll be able to connect to it on the cloud directly from your brain. That additional quantity will again be an enabling factor for another qualitative leap in culture and technology."
This prospect might be exciting to some and dreadful to others. While it's intriguing to contemplate future scenarios, it is yet to be seen to what extent far-reaching projections such as these will materialize. Even without massive leaps, today the opportunities for AI are vast and we believe it is evident that human expertise has the potential to be augmented by a combination of human and machine intelligence, which surpasses that of either a human or a machine on a standalone basis.
AI is already beginning to make its mark in a wide variety of industries. For the first time in its decades-long history it has become commercialized. Internet giants use it for search optimization and product recommendation, among other applications, while businesses outside of the technology industry have begun to implement AI for uses such as fraud detection, facial recognition, mapping the customer journey, and much more. It has even made some headway in art and media—a painting created by AI recently sold at a Christie's auction for $432,500 and the world's first AI news anchor has gone live in China.
Currently, the global market for AI is estimated to be approximately $7.3B and is forecast to reach some $90B by 2025, based on Statista data. North America is expected to be the biggest consumer in the market with its widening usage of AI applications across numerous business verticals, while Asia Pacific will likely experience the fastest growth in uptake of the new technology, according to Reuters. AI is rapidly emerging as an industry in itself.
Because AI's commercialization and presence in public equity markets are relatively new, so far AI offers limited opportunities for pure-play investment. The direct beneficiaries are confined to areas like software, where some companies have established a first-mover advantage. As time passes, as happened with previous technological breakthroughs (e.g., the internet), the massive number of private AI startups likely will be reduced to only a comparatively few winners, in our view.
Another approach would be to invest in indirect beneficiaries, companies that would benefit from incorporating AI technologies in their business. In addition to technology and communication services, we expect five industries to benefit in the near future:
New AI innovations in the health care industry are appearing with great rapidity, making it the most promising industry, in our view, where image recognition has dramatically improved diagnostics—detecting melanoma skin cancer with 95 percent accuracy, for example—adding decision-making support and improved patient monitoring. Big data combined with AI is opening up the possibilities of customized, individual therapies replacing the "one-size-fits-all" protocols that have characterized cancer treatment for decades. Heart disease diagnosis and treatment could benefit in the same way. Deep learning and predictive analytics tools are reducing the costs and time of drug development by predicting the therapeutic use of new drugs, thus driving significant efficiency gains.
Industry practitioners expect autonomous vehicles to transform the future of transport along with other AI solutions that will: predict traffic flow and analyze pedestrian patterns to reduce accidents, speed traffic flow and the efficient movement of goods, reduce congestion, air pollution, and energy consumption; not to mention free up valuable land and physical assets currently dedicated to housing and storing autos that are often in use for less than an hour each day.
AI supports production forecasting and quality control with robotics and sensor technologies. In its 10-year strategic plan, "Made in China 2025," China is revamping its industrial base, and the International Federation of Robotics expects China to account for 40 percent of the total worldwide sales of robots by 2019.
AI's applications in e-commerce include product discovery tools such as visual search, 3D virtual reality, customized product recommendations, targeted marketing, and potentially delivery through AI-powered drones or other self-driving vehicles. Importantly, AI's predictive analytics could provide, and in some cases already are, the rapid just-in-time inventory management that would permit brick-and-mortar retailers the capacity to compete more effectively against the online threat.
AI is making strides in the form of virtual assistants, chatbots, speech recognition, alternative data sources, sophisticated trading models, real-time risk assessment, the development of innovative new financial instruments, and much more.
We believe AI offers transformative opportunities for society, governments, and businesses, even though the state of the technology still lags the hype. Like other periods of rapid industrial/technological change, we expect AI's emergence will create a substantial increase in global wealth in the coming decades. However, it is unlikely that increased wealth will be delivered equitably or "fairly." There will undoubtedly be large dislocations that produce both winners and losers.
What is clear to us is that AI is here to stay. As with the arrival of computers, automation, and the internet, those companies that pursue the opportunities AI presents and understand the competitive threats it may pose, will likely fare better than those who choose to ignore it or fight a rearguard action to forestall it. We believe factoring its impact into investment decisions and choices will rapidly become a "must have" rather than a "nice to have."
Non-U.S. Analyst Disclosure: Iryna Drobysheva and Juan Aronna, employees of Royal Bank of Canada, Singapore Branch, contributed to the preparation of this publication. These individuals are not registered with or qualified as research analysts with the U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ("FINRA") and, since they are not associated persons of RBC Wealth Management, they may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 governing communications with subject companies, the making of public appearances, and the trading of securities in accounts held by research analysts.
The trade dispute is part of a complex struggle over national security that could reshape the relationship between the world's two largest economies.
6 minute read >
By Jay Roberts
When Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met for the first time at Trump's Florida golf retreat, Mar-a-Lago, in April 2017, it was all smiles and bonhomie. China's official Xinhua news agency sounded a note of triumph—even despite Trump informing an unsuspecting Xi that he had just launched 59 missiles at Syria over a "beautiful piece of chocolate cake"—declaring the meeting as positive, fruitful, and a new starting point for the world's most important bilateral relationship. Trump lauded his friendship with Xi and described the relationship as "outstanding." Progress indeed from the campaign trail comments in 2016.
Since then, and noted in various Global Insight publications in 2018, the China hawks in the Trump administration have steadily gained the ascendancy. The Trump administration moved quickly from words to actions. To date, this has culminated in five percent–25 percent tariffs on US$250B of goods from China with further increases in tariffs planned for January 2019. China has responded in kind with $160B of its own taxes on U.S. goods, steadfastly underlining its self-belief as a global power that will not kowtow.
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 11/8/18
Chinese equity markets have declined deep into bear market territory, although this is amid a backdrop of Chinese policy aimed at financial deleveraging, a clunky term that simply means tackling riskier areas of lending in the economy. China's currency has weakened. More recently, it is beginning to dawn on global investors, including in the dominant U.S. market, that what is happening between the U.S. and China goes far beyond political posturing. Something far larger is afoot.
As Trump accused China in September of interfering in the U.S. midterm elections,1 he offered that President Xi "might not be a friend of mine anymore." An understatement, perhaps. How things have changed.
What is going on is much more than a trade dispute. It is primarily a national security dispute where the key ingredients are: technology leadership; laws, regulations, and behaviours; an overarching accusation of state interference; and ideological differences.
All U.S. presidents are required to produce a National Security Strategy. Trump's was produced in December 2017 in record time. Of note: "China and Russia challenge American power, influence, and interests, attempting to erode American security and prosperity. They are determined to make economies less free and less fair, to grow their militaries, and to control information and data to repress their societies and expand their influence."2
The complaints in the U.S. Trade Representative report from March 2018, ordered by Trump in August 2017, revolve around China's alleged theft of intellectual property, forced technology transfer, limited market access, and state-sponsored cyberattacks.
As such, it is nigh impossible that all will be resolved in a brief meeting and a handshake between Trump and Xi. At most in the short term, there may be some agreement to postpone tariff increases, for example, or agree to rejoin negotiations (currently minimal). But the U.S. has said that it now refuses to negotiate until China presents a concrete plan on technology.3
Moreover, while the dispute has been intensifying over the past year, it has really been many years in the making. The Obama administration discussed similar issues. Even today, with the divide between Republicans and Democrats widening to a chasm, the issue of tackling China is a rarity in that it enjoys unfettered bipartisan support, including some of Trump's most vocal critics in the Democratic camp.
The U.S. long believed that engagement with China would bring about desired changes over time. That belief is being ditched. Plan B is in operation and it does not only include tariffs.4 China has responded by refusing to bend publicly. State media labelled U.S. methods as "extreme blackmail." Xi Jinping gave a speech at a trade fair in Shanghai on Nov. 5 proclaiming a "new round of high-level opening up." He also commented that the free trade system is under threat and levelled some thinly veiled criticisms at the U.S.
Along the way, there have been a number of public comments made by U.S. officials that underline the seriousness of the situation and the commitment of the U.S. to a new strategy.
The most strident was a speech—history might term it the speech—delivered by Vice President Mike Pence on October 4 in Washington.5 Over the course of 40 minutes, Pence delivered a stinging rebuke to China across a wide range of issues that went well beyond trade. The combination of its smorgasbord of complaints and accusations across multiple spheres including commercial affairs, political ideology, military expansion, and human rights; the length of the speech; the entire focus on China; and the fact that it was delivered by the second-highest U.S. official make this a moment in which the U.S. may have finally crossed the Rubicon. For its part, China questions its role in a unipolar world subject to U.S. hegemony.
The nature of the strategic relationship between the U.S. and China is undergoing a generational sea change, in our view. We expect this divergence to continue as both countries work to remove some interdependencies over time. There is growing mistrust on both sides. We believe that the process will be protracted and peppered with bouts of real tension.
The U.S. is primarily a domestic, consumer-driven economy. If economic measures are restricted to tariffs of moderate levels, we believe the impact on the U.S. should be manageable during expansion periods. However, unpredictable secondary actions, such as restricting market access in China or imposing a series of harsh sanctions, would be more damaging to certain companies, in our view. Additionally, the inflationary effects of tariffs are unclear—at a time when U.S. bond yields are pushing higher on Federal Reserve rate hikes and strong economic data.
For China, the impact of a full-blown trade war would be more pronounced, perhaps reducing growth by up to 0.7 percent, according to one estimate by the Chinese government. However, the Chinese economy is also more consumer- and services-oriented than many people might think, in our view.
Equity markets in China, Hong Kong, and to some extent elsewhere in Asia have responded rapidly and negatively since the first tariffs hit. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index has declined in eight out of 10 months in 2018. MSCI China Index earnings have been revised downwards for six consecutive months. This trend needs to halt before investors can become more constructive, in our view.
Indexes shown: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI), MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index (MXAP), NSE Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY), Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI), Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index (TPX), Straits Times Index (STI), Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE), S&P/ASX 200 (As51), Shanghai Composite Index (SHComp), Shenzhen Composite Index (SZComp)
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 11/5/18
Unfortunately for China, the dispute comes at a time of financial deleveraging, which itself is impacting the ability of Chinese companies to tap the domestic capital markets. For example, some Chinese property developers are being forced to offer markedly higher yields on new bond issuances.
We have begun to see Chinese policy support for the equity market. Historically, the actual market has bottomed between one to six months after such support is announced, but every situation is different. While we forecast the Chinese currency to weaken through USDCNY7.00, we believe that authorities would not entertain any disorderly selloff.
The dispute has also meaningfully impacted other Asian equity markets. Some of these markets are approaching levels where valuation may become supportive.
Going forward, a growing divide between the U.S. and China would have ramifications for economic growth rates (although benefits may accrue to other countries depending on the movement of supply chains). However, we believe this is more likely to be an ongoing erosion of growth rather than a shock. For companies, the impact on some will be negligible, for others potentially significant. Investors should consider this when constructing and managing portfolios.
Non-U.S. Analyst Disclosure: Jay Roberts, CFA, an employee of RBC Wealth Management USA's foreign affiliate RBC Dominion Securities Inc., contributed to the preparation of this publication. This individual is not registered with or qualified as a research analyst with the U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ("FINRA") and, since he is not an associated persons of RBC Wealth Management, he may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 governing communications with subject companies, the making of public appearances, and the trading of securities in accounts held by research analysts.
Don't wait for fear to do the work of reason — start to de-risk fixed income portfolios now.
By Mikhial Pasic
The later stage of the economic cycle is the time to start formulating a game plan to de-risk portfolios. Well-regarded high-yield investor Howard Marks famously says, "You can't predict, but you can prepare." Economic growth remains solid and most indicators we monitor suggest a recession is still some ways off, but it's best to prepare for choppier waters while the seas remain calm. We believe reducing credit risk in fixed income portfolios is a good place to start this process because compensation for taking those risks is currently minimal and credit quality has weakened.
Interest rates tend to rise for a considerable period of time in the later part of an economic cycle in response to a strong economy and rising inflation. This process is now well underway; the Fed has moved its benchmark rate from 0.0 percent to 2.25 percent over the past three years. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield is up by almost 200 basis points (bps) since July 2016.
While interest rates rise in response to a strong economy, those higher rates eventually slow down the economy—often pushing it into a recession, ushering in a period of shrinking corporate profits in the process. Bond investors typically experience poor performance as yields rise to a peak prior to a recession, while stocks tend to head into a bear market around the time when the recession actually arrives. The bonds of low-quality issuers often suffer a "double whammy," losing value as rates rise and then losing even more value when the recession pressures these companies' already comparatively weak finances and calls their ability to service their debts into question. Conversely, higher-quality bonds tend to perform well in this environment as investors seek more secure cash flow streams.
Source - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, St. Louis Federal Reserve
It is difficult to determine the exact point where higher interest rates will slow down the economy. However, higher bond yields and an eventual recession are two possible scenarios that some of the lower-quality segments of the bond market are poorly positioned for. We believe some of these riskier parts of fixed income portfolios that investors have crowded into in search of higher yields are an appropriate place to start the overall de-risking process.
Full valuations for so-called high-yield bonds (defined as bonds rated below BBB) mean that the yield pickup on this debt is modest relative to yields available on higher-rated bonds. We believe this leaves this asset class segment in the unappealing place of being vulnerable to both higher interest rates and a recession. Similar logic can be applied today beyond just High Yield. Lower-rated bonds generally—for example, BBB rated corporate bonds versus A rated corporate bonds—are likely to experience larger price declines as rates rise, and their low rating by definition means that they have less financial capability to cope with an economic slowdown.
This diminished yield advantage offered by high-yield bonds means they offer a smaller margin of safety in the event credit or business conditions deteriorate. Government-backed bonds and high-quality corporate bonds typically experience price gains when central banks reverse course and start lowering rates to support a faltering economy. But low-quality borrowers often experience business dislocations in economic downturns that may call into question their ability to make interest payments and repay principal. This market segment often performs poorly when a recession hits and default rates inevitably rise.
Reducing exposure to lower-rated corporate bonds could leave some money on the table until economic conditions actually deteriorate. But we believe this is a tolerable outcome for investors who maintain equity exposure. The conditions that are supportive of high-yield bonds typically are also supportive of stocks, but stocks offer upside potential that is less constrained. The table below underscores this point. The upside in high-yield bonds is capped because many are trading near, and in some cases actually above, their call price, which means issuers can redeem the bonds if they are able to refinance that debt on more favorable terms, with investors receiving little benefit.
Source - Bloomberg, FactSet; data calculated using Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate High Yield Index total return
The differential between the yield on a riskier (normally lower rated) category of bonds and that offered by a safer (normally more highly rated) category is referred to as the credit spread. Credit spreads between higher- and lower-quality bonds are extremely narrow today as the amount of incremental yield offered for proportionally more risk is historically modest. This comes after a significant move higher in government bond yields and means a larger portion of the total yield on a bond derives from the government bond component rather than the compensation for assuming greater credit risk.
The chart below highlights that investors typically fare better not reaching for the modest amount of incremental yield in the high-yield bond market when credit spreads are this narrow.
Source - Bloomberg, FactSet; Data calculated using Average Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate High Yield Index and Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Treasury Index 2-yr total return data
Narrow credit spreads provide investors a number of opportunities to switch into higher- quality, often more liquid bonds at a very modest sacrifice in yields. We think investors should move to take action on this before economic growth eventually stalls, because the yield that is given up to upgrade quality will likely be more substantial at that point.
As riskier bonds have fared well over several years, investors have been open to accepting offerings from a much broader and lower-rated group of issuers. The number of both European corporate bond issuers and emerging market sovereign issuers has doubled since 2003. Meanwhile, in the U.S., BBB issues account for almost 50 percent of the investment-grade market today, up from only 32 percent in 2009.
The average term to maturity on U.S. investment-grade new issues has also doubled since 2006, from 7.5 years to 15 years, shifting significant interest rate risk to investors at a time when over $1T of corporate bonds needs to be refinanced over the next few years. For the first time in a number of years, a wide swath of borrowers are refinancing at rates higher than where they issued debt five years ago.
High-yield investors are also contending with more issuer-friendly (i.e., less investor- friendly) terms on new offerings. Given the weakest borrowers are transacting in the high-yield bond and loan markets, investors have usually demanded the greatest protections on these deals. This can be done by including provisions in the loan terms or the bond indenture that limit the borrowers' flexibility in one of the following ways:
Lately, issuers have been able to reduce the protections offered to investors hungry for yield; nor have investors demanded them. Moody's estimates roughly 80 percent of loans issued in Q1 2018 were considered "covenant-lite"—i.e., not requiring borrowers to uphold certain financial standards, such as a maximum level of indebtedness. Recent examples include borrowers adjusting current reported cash flow figures to include cost savings that are expected to be realized over the next few years and allowing issuers to sell assets and use the proceeds to fund special dividends for shareholders rather than reducing debt.
It's always challenging to gauge the level at which higher interest rates lead to a slowdown in economic activity, but it appears that we are moving into a higher volatility regime as we reach a more advanced stage of the economic cycle. As the maxim goes, "fear does the work of reason," and we think a small dose of fear—perhaps instilled by a few of the spikes in volatility in 2018—might actually provide a healthy "jump-start" for investors to look to their fixed income portfolios as a place to start the de-risking process and move up in quality.
Non-U.S. Analyst Disclosure: Mikhial Pasic, an employee of RBC Wealth Management USA's foreign affiliate RBC Dominion Securities Inc., contributed to the preparation of this publication. This individual is not registered with or qualified as a research analyst with the U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ("FINRA") and, since he is not an associated person of RBC Wealth Management, he may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 governing communications with subject companies, the making of public appearances, and the trading of securities in accounts held by research analysts.
While it's late in the game, the economic expansion should have stamina. A constructive—yet vigilant—approach to financial markets is warranted.
10 minute read >
The global and U.S. economic expansions are now in their later stages. While GDP growth seems likely to slow for a number of major economies including the "big 3"—the U.S., Europe, and China—the underlying strength of the U.S. makes it possible this already very extended stretch of growth could last longer than one might think. Central banks will play key roles in determining just how long the expansion plays out. This late cycle stage does not call for dramatic portfolio changes just yet, in our view, but we are moderately trimming equity exposure and shifting toward value areas of the market, while also dialing back credit risk in fixed income. Following are our thoughts about portfolio positioning for 2019.
Source - RBC Global Asset Management
Central banks may diverge as they adjust policies to varying stages of economic activity. We foresee continued growth in developed economies, and inflation holding near targets. This will allow gradual policy adjustments to continue, but the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada may approach their "neutral rate" targets just as the European Central Bank (ECB) begins raising rates later in 2019. Credit will continue to provide selective opportunities, but "late cycle" signs warrant attention to quality and portfolio positioning.
Craig Bishop, Minneapolis
The Fed is forecasting three rate hikes in 2019. We see the Fed pausing after two hikes when short-term interest rates reach their "neutral rate" target of roughly 3 percent. Wildcards could be inflation and trade developments.
The burst of GDP growth in H2 2018 will, in our opinion, give way to slower momentum as the impact from fiscal stimulus wanes. But even if growth pulls back to 2.5 percent–3.0 percent, recession risks would remain low.
10Y Treasury yields are in a 3.10 percent–3.40 percent range and we maintain that 3.50 percent is likely the speed limit for the 10-year in this economic cycle. Yield curves should remain flat, but not invert, in 2019 as the Fed moves toward pausing.
Credit spreads will remain subject to equity market volatility. Until five-year average spreads of 125 basis points for IG and 435 basis points for HY are exceeded, we will hold our modest Overweight on IG and Underweight on HY. We recommend preferreds for attractive returns and maintain our bias for 15–20 year higher-coupon munis.
Christopher Girdler, Toronto
The Canadian economy is widely expected to grow at or slightly above its potential in 2019. With core inflation already near the Bank of Canada's 2 percent target, the removal of monetary stimulus should continue.
The Bank of Canada recently signaled there will be more hikes beyond 2019 than the market is currently pricing in. If this becomes the likely outcome, we believe yields would be set to rise across the yield curve. We are more comfortable buying short to intermediate maturities that offer lower expected volatility of returns, good liquidity, and an opportunity to reinvest at more attractive rates if the central bank follows through.
Our Canadian credit outlook is mixed. Corporate bond valuations have improved somewhat after reaching the most expensive levels in a decade, but this hasn't changed our view. We continue to recommend upgrading credit quality and liquidity within portfolios. Preferred shares suffered bouts of volatility this year, and with much more reasonable valuations we view any weakness as a buying opportunity.
Alastair Whitfield, London
As the ECB comes to the end of its purchase programme, further signs of moderating GDP could unsettle markets in 2019, although ECB President Mario Draghi is unlikely to delay the withdrawal of monetary accommodation. For now, despite a QE slowdown, we see the ECB's stock of holdings and planned reinvestment strategy continuing to support yields and credit spreads.
For the UK, rate hike expectations have shifted forward slightly given the possibility of PM Theresa May's government reaching an agreement with EU leaders. We doubt the path of future interest rate hikes will change much, given estimates of weaker GDP appearing by the end of 2018 or in early 2019. Another notable risk that may materialise after March 2019 is the potential for a leadership challenge within the Conservative party and a general election. This could weigh on UK fixed income; Consumer Cyclicals and Financials would be most at risk.
Chun-Him Tam, Singapore
China represents half of the USD-denominated Asian credit market. In our view, fundamentals and market sentiment in China are two of three key drivers of Asian bonds. The third is the Fed's interest rate policy.
Onshore funding liquidity in China is tight and issuers struggle to refinance their debt as the government treads along its deleveraging path. The significant market correction in 2018 has opened up selective investment opportunities, but overall we remain cautious and prefer to see a stabilization of liquidity and market confidence before turning risk-on.
We are also cautious on Indonesia and India. Both run current account and fiscal deficits, and are more exposed to the Fed's rate hike cycle and a stronger U.S. dollar. We don't expect a turnaround at least until their elections are held in the first half of 2019.
We advise sticking to quality and are Overweight defensive countries like Singapore, South Korea and Hong Kong.
The corrections in 2018 exposed stresses in the global equity market but also reset valuations to more reasonable levels. We think the market has the capacity to absorb economic cooling, ongoing tariff risks, and monetary tightening, albeit with volatility. Our constructive view hinges on low recession risks for major economies, particularly the U.S., and the likelihood corporate earnings growth will persist. But 2019 returns could be modest and delivered unevenly; therefore, it is appropriate to trim equity exposure to a Market Weight level in global portfolios from a slight Overweight position.
Two factors that influence U.S. stock prices the most over time—economic and earnings growth—will likely be firm enough to push the market at least modestly higher in 2019. We think the economy has the potential to grow above the 2.3 percent average rate. All of our forward-looking indicators are signaling the expansion will persist for the next 12 months or beyond.
Earnings growth is set to slow in 2019 because the boost from tax cuts will fall out of the data, and year-over-year comparisons to 2018's white-hot growth rates will be challenging to jump over. Furthermore, higher input prices due to tariffs, wage growth, and a strong dollar could constrain profit margins. Even with these challenges, we think S&P 500 earnings can grow in the mid-to-high single digits due to strength in the economy.
A market shift toward value stocks and away from growth stocks seems likely, in our view. Value tends to outperform when the 10-year Treasury yield rises, inflation expectations move higher, and GDP growth strengthens, as well as during the latter stage of a bull market cycle.
We recommend a Market Weight allocation to Canadian equities. Valuations remain discounted relative to the U.S., which we believe provides appropriate compensation for domestic-specific challenges, namely, the impact of higher interest rates on highly leveraged consumers and the housing market, a lack of adequate oil pipeline capacity, and waning economic competitiveness.
Resolution of free trade negotiations with the U.S. and Mexico appears poised to reduce uncertainty and potential downside risk to the domestic economy. However, the agreed accord must now be passed into law by the three signatories, which cannot be taken for granted in this contentious political climate.
Our outlook for key sectors remains somewhat subdued. Bank valuations have improved on an absolute basis but remain in-line relative to the broader Canadian market and U.S. banks. We remain comfortable with a modest underweight in Canadian banks given our expectation for slowing earnings growth. The outlook for Energy is dimmed by pipeline constraints and an increasingly self-sufficient U.S. oil market.
European equities should continue to be supported by modestly improving fundamentals, including cyclical low unemployment as well as stronger capital investment and lending environments, while a weak currency should underpin the export sector. Uncertainty regarding the Italian budget is likely to linger, perhaps until the European Parliament elections in May as we suspect European politicians would prefer to avoid conflict before then. Equity valuations are not demanding, trading back in line with long term averages and the steep discount to U.S. valuations remains. We favour the Health Care and Industrials sectors, which benefit from structural trends such as infrastructure spend and digitalization.
The fortunes of UK equities will be influenced by the Brexit negotiations' outcome. Should the UK secure a deal with a transition period ensuring the status quo—our base case scenario—we would expect domestic stocks to enjoy a relief rally. An upward rerating is likely given a 2019 P/E ratio of 11.7x and a dividend yield of some 4.5%. Should negotiations fail, and the UK leave the EU without such a transition, the currency would likely weaken, though the usual inverse relationship with equities could well break. After all, exporters would have lost tariff-free access to one of their largest markets. Our preferred sectors remain Energy and Life Insurance where cash flows are improving and valuations are attractive.
Asian equities had a tough year in 2018 after a very good year in 2017. Most of the weakness came from markets in North Asia, especially China.
In 2019, we expect that the trade dispute, which in reality encompasses much more than simply trade, may deepen, or at least continue, and will set the narrative for Asian markets. However, we expect China to roll out policies to support its markets and economy, both of which have been impacted by the dispute and by China's worthy attempts to rein in riskier areas of credit growth. Even though Chinese stocks have declined considerably, we maintain a neutral stance on the equity market given ongoing risks such as U.S. policy, a slowing economy and concerns about the currency. Different to Japan, a weaker Chinese currency is not perceived favourably by investors.
We recently moved Japanese equities to an Overweight position. The valuation discount of Japanese stocks relative to global peers is attractive. Economic and earnings trends are generally supportive. We forecast the currency to weaken, aiding stocks. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Abe won his party's leadership election in September. We expect the Bank of Japan to maintain its highly accommodative interest rate policy. Risks include a strong currency and the impact of the VAT increases slated for later in 2019.
Laura Cooper, London
Rising U.S. yields on the back of monetary tightening was a predominant driver of U.S. dollar outperformance in 2018 while a dampening of risk appetite due to a ratcheting-up of U.S.-China trade tensions provided further support. Looking to 2019, supportive factors for sustained dollar strength through the early part of the year remain intact, in our view. Robust economic growth against a tight labour market point to the need for further rate increases by the Federal Reserve. The resultant attractiveness of the U.S. dollar could fade later in 2019, however, when other countries' central banks look poised to withdraw accommodative policy stimulus.
Eroding risk appetite in the wake of 2018 political developments appears likely to fade; however, pressure on the euro could persist in 2019, in our view. Signs of softer growth in the region due to rising protectionism alongside subdued core inflation suggest the European Central Bank is unlikely to be in a position to alter its current policy stance until later in 2019. As such, with policy rates likely to remain unchanged until Q3 2019, the widening rate differential favouring the U.S. dollar points to euro weakness persisting.
Diminished trade uncertainty in the wake of the USMCA agreement alongside an economy expanding above potential should tee up for the Bank of Canada to raise policy rates twice more in early 2019. The uplift to the currency from rate dynamics could fade, however, with the central bank likely to then pause to assess the impact on elevated household indebtedness.
The British pound appears poised to take guidance from the evolving relationship between the UK and the EU in 2019. In our view, pragmatism will prevail with a Brexit deal being reached across the parties. However, lingering uncertainty around the future trading relationship through the planned transition period is likely to keep the pound at depressed levels throughout the year.
Domestic economic conditions and a cautious outlook from the Bank of Japan suggest ultra-easy monetary policy could persist in 2019. Accordingly, the yen is likely to take direction from external drivers. Notably, rising hedging costs from relatively higher U.S. rates point to Japanese investors further rolling off currency hedges, and in turn, dampening demand for the Japanese yen in 2019.
Should an equity investor "make hay while the sun shines" or prepare to hunker down?
By Jim Allworth
A big majority of economists polled see the U.S. economy in the "late cycle" stage. We agree—the U.S. economy and likely the Canadian and British economies are in the late stages of what will probably go down as the longest-ever economic expansion, measuring from the end of the Great Recession in mid-2009.
Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management, Inc., assigns scores to 17 different factors as to where they are in their normal cyclical progression (see table). Overwhelmingly the majority are giving readings typical of the "late" or "end" of cycle. But importantly none are behaving as if the U.S. were already in recession.
The term "late cycle" has an aura of "living on borrowed time" about it. However, the U.S. economy is not yet "that late" in the late cycle. We closely monitor six indicators that have done a good job over many cycles of warning that a U.S. recession was on the way or about to start. None of these is currently signalling that any such economic downturn is as yet nearby.
Three of the six—the shape of the yield curve (i.e., the gap between short- and long- term interest rates); the trend in unemployment insurance claims; and the year-over-year rate of change in the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index—have all typically given an advance warning of an impending recession 9–12 months ahead of time. None are currently flashing any such warning and it is our assessment that it will be some time before they do.
= most likely stage of business cycle
= alternative interpretation
This suggests GDP, corporate earnings, and share values all have room to advance further for some time yet. We expect all these things will also be true for the economies and markets of Canada, the U.K., the eurozone, and Japan.
That said, it's worth checking in on investor mentality today. Clearly, things are very different from what they were in the early part of the cycle. From the time the recession ended in mid-2009 all the way through 2014, "risk aversion" was the dominant psychology. Banks all around the world were rebuilding capital, were unsure about the condition of other banks, and were cautious about lending.
Despite a powerful recovery in share prices off the bear market lows and price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples that were at levels indicating above-average future returns, most individuals remained "reluctant investors." Very little, if any, money flowed toward equity funds, but there were massive inflows into bond funds where returns were unusually meagre.
Skepticism prevailed. In the U.S., despite the economy regaining all its lost ground and posting new highs by early 2011, consumer and business confidence readings remained low for another three-and-a-half years.
Today that skepticism, that had lingered for so long, has been replaced by elevated confidence on many fronts. Consumer confidence in the U.S. is at historically high levels while it is at or not far off cycle highs in Europe, Canada, and Japan. Business confidence could also be characterised as buoyant. In the U.S., an unusually high fraction of small and medium-sized businesses, surveyed by the National Federation of Independent Business, rate this a "good time to expand."
This elevated confidence reflects current conditions—GDP growth is running above trend and has become largely self-sustaining; labour markets are tight in the biggest developed economies, job security is high, and wages are growing; real estate values are elevated; and monetary policies are moving closer to normal.
The stock market, retrenching through much of this year, seems to be out of step with these elevated confidence readings. In our view, that's because equity markets paid in advance for today's more buoyant conditions. Stocks moved up from depressed lows in 2015, through 2016 and 2017, to much higher levels and more expensive valuations by early 2018. But when investors looked forward to 2019 and 2020, a somewhat more challenging view emerged. In the U.S. the additive impact of corporate tax cuts will begin to wane as year-over-year earnings comparisons become much less vigorous. Earnings estimates for next year are already being revised downward, albeit from very high levels. Overall, the massive fiscal stimulus delivered by federal tax cuts and increased spending should diminish over 2019 and turn into a modest drag in 2020.
Stimulus measures everywhere, with the exception of China, are expected to have a diminished impact on growth. Add in a possible first rate hike and the end of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank, a further bank rate increase by the Bank of England, two, possibly three more hikes from the Fed, and the same from the Bank of Canada, and it sounds very much like "late cycle" to us.
No U.S. recession in sight so far.
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg, FRED Economic Data St. Louis Fed
We think the appropriate posture for managing an equity portfolio at this juncture in the late cycle is one of "leaning against risk." We are moving our recommended equity exposure in a global portfolio down to Market Weight from a modest Overweight. While at some point a more significant reduction in equity exposure will be appropriate, we don't think that time has arrived. But below are some things that should be on the agenda for the coming year:
Read more from the Global Insight 2019 Outlook here.
Non-U.S. Analyst Disclosure: Jim Allworth, an employee of RBC Wealth Management USA's foreign affiliate RBC Dominion Securities Inc., contributed to the preparation of this publication. This individual is not registered with or qualified as a research analyst with the U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ("FINRA") and, since he is not an associated person of RBC Wealth Management, he may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 governing communications with subject companies, the making of public appearances, and the trading of securities in accounts held by research analysts.


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How iTunes Smart Playlists Work
iTunes has a feature called smart playlists. Under iTunes DJ (near the top of the Playlists section of the Source pane), you can find these smart playlists, which are indicated by a gear-in-a-document icon. iTunes comes with a few sample smart playlists, such as My Top Rated and Recently Added, and you can create your own.
Smart playlists add items to themselves based on prearranged criteria, or rules. For example, when you rate your content items, My Top Rated changes to reflect your new ratings. You don't have to set anything up because My Top Rated and Recently Added are already defined for you.
Of course, smart playlists are ignorant of your taste in music or video. You have to program them with rules by using the information in iTunes. For example, you can create a smart playlist that uses the Year field to grab all the songs from 1966. This list, in no particular order, might include The Beatles ("Eleanor Rigby"), Frank Sinatra ("Strangers in the Night"), The Yardbirds ("Over Under Sideways Down"), and Ike and Tina Turner ("River Deep, Mountain High") — a far-out playlist, no doubt, but not necessarily what you want. You can use other fields of information that you entered (such as ratings, artist name, or composer) to fine-tune your criteria. You can also use built-in functions, such as Play Count (the number of times the item was played) or Date Added (the date the item was added to the library).


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The Fans Have Spoken
Last night on Twitter, I posted this fan poll:
Since this is a highly unscientific poll, and many of the people who responded felt that simply one answer for each question was not enough, I tallied votes for any players mentioned (within reason). So, you Jays fans have spoken. The results are as follows…
Best Hitter of the First Half
1. Jose Bautista – 36 votes
2. Vernon Wells – 22 votes
3. Alex Gonzalez – 7 votes
4. Fred Lewis – 6 votes
5. John Buck – 4 votes
Comment: Bautista definitely won over Blue Jays fans with his first-half bombs — a Major League-high 24 to be exact. Dating back to last September, he has been one of the top power hitters in the game. He's hit anywhere manager Cito Gaston has put him in the lineup and showed off his cannon of an arm in right field and at third base. Tough to deny the strong first-half showings from Gonzalez, Buck and Wells, but Bautista is the right choice. Lewis has been a solid addition and it's nice to see him get some love in the voting.
Best Pitcher of the First Half
1. Shaun Marcum – 31 votes
2. Brett Cecil – 20 votes
3. Ricky Romero – 11 votes
4. Shawn Camp – 10 votes
5. Brandon Morrow – 3 votes
6. Scott Downs – 3 votes
Comment: Romero might have run away with this category if it weren't for his last two clunkers against the Red Sox and Yankees. It is tough to decide between Marcum and Cecil, but the fans made a good choice. Sure, Marcum went through a rough patch of late and is on the disabled list (expected to be activated soon), but to do what he has done after logging zero innings in the Majors in 2009 is impressive. He looks like another Tommy John surgery success story at this point. Kudos to the voters for sending some love Camp's way as well. He has been a reliable innings eater out of what has been an inconsistent bullpen.
Prospect fans want to see in Second Half
1. J.P. Arencibia – 35 votes
2. Brett Wallace – 23 votes
3. Kyle Drabek – 18 votes
4. Tim Collins – 5 votes
5. Adeiny Hechavarria – 3 votes
6. Darin Mastroianni – 3 votes
7. Trystan Magnuson – 1 votes
8. Brad Mills – 1 votes
Comment: The results here are no surprise. Arencibia is Toronto's top catching prospect and Wallace and Drabek were two key components within the Roy Halladay trade. They've all performed at a high level this year, too. Arencibia and Wallace have teed off against PCL pitching and Drabek has shined at Double-A, even throwing a no-hitter two outings ago. Unless the Jays move first baseman Lyle Overbay, I'm not sure Wallace joins the Jays outside of maybe being part of September call-ups. Drabek could be promoted in September as well, but that does not seem like a certainty. Arencibia is in his second season at Triple-A and he is performing at a high level. I'd like to see him with the Jays before September, but that would require the club to find a trading partner for either John Buck or Jose Molina. Given their early play, there should be a deal out there somewhere. This season is about development and looking toward the future. So why not get one of the future pieces (Arencibia) here soon? There were also votes for Travis Snider and Marc Rzepczynski, but I don't consider them to be "prospects" any longer.
Some of the Fan Responses on Twitter
@mpriester tough to pick only one guy… I'll go Gonzalez/Romero/ does snider count as a prospect. Cito treats him like one.
@diabloshadow probably vernon and ricky despite his bad form of late, also id like to see a pitcher come up, maybe drabek? just for experience
@HiLite8 Hitter: J. Bau. He's really impressed me (Walks, HRs, RBIs OF Assists). Pitcher: Marcum, but Camp and Downs are right there too.
@simon_la Pitcher: Romero (minus last two starts.) Hitter: Wells, solid overall numbers. Prospect: Wallace or even Drabek if possible
@Zeke_D Tim Collins 1/2 vote – will be fun to see what he can do at MLB level once Frasor/Downs traded
@codaclothing best hitter Wells, best pitcher Camp, can't wait to see Adeiny but realistically let's see Arencibia finally!
@delta_vee Hitter: JoBau (.391 wOBA!). Pitcher: Downs (3.14 FIP). Prospect: Darin Mastroianni (.308/.406/.409, 33(!) swiped bags).
@KyleMatte Hitter: Bow to Bau. Pitcher: Morrow (I choose to look at the 2nd half of the 1st half). Prospect: Arencibia, he's ready.
@MFXFulton best hitter: bautista. Best pitcher: marcum. Prospect: arencibia. Dream prospect to get called up: mastroianni: Need for speed
@coatesy71 Vernon/Marcum/Wallace. Opposites: Edwin/Tallet/Mills
@highsockmojo Hitter: A-Gon for consistency. Pitcher: Tied for Romero and Cecil. Prospect: Hesitant to say, but Arencibia.


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AgeChecked Shows Industry Leadership, Becomes ASACP Diamond Sponsor
LOS ANGELES (September 8, 2017) — The Association of Sites Advocating Child Protection (ASACP) is pleased to announce AgeChecked has become its exclusive Diamond Sponsor.
AgeChecked provides online age verification solutions across a range of sectors that distribute age-restricted goods and services. Their focus in the media sector is on providing seamless and light-touch verifications that do not impede the customer journey. Age verification is due to be mandatory requirement on all adult content sites accessed in the UK in 2018.
"The goals of AgeChecked and the ASACP are strongly aligned. Both our organizations work to promote child protection online," AgeChecked CEO Alastair Graham explains. "The ASACP has a fantastic track record of doing that over many years and we are happy to support this hard-working charity and the work that it does worldwide."
ASACP's Executive Director Tim Henning welcomes the new top-tier sponsor and its unique new role and notes that as a non-profit association, ASACP survives on the ongoing generosity of its sponsors.
"AgeChecked is making a huge splash in the industry and is really stepping up to a leadership role by supporting ASACP at its highest level," Henning said. "The necessity of online age verification is on the radar of many website owners in the face of evolving legislation — especially those who provide age-restricted content. AgeChecked provides the premier solution to this problem, and we are more than happy to be working with them."
"Recent mandates in the U.K. and the expectation that this trend of requiring internet user identities will spread across the globe make age verification a matter of 'when' not 'if,'" Henning says. "This is something that the association supports and is keeping a close eye on, but as with all ASCAP services, it is only possible through the generosity of caring companies such as AgeChecked."
ASACP uses the support it receives from its sponsors to fund initiatives such as its internationally recognized Child Exploitation Tipline, which has processed more than one million CP reports since its inception; and ASACP's multiple award-winning Restricted To Adults (RTA) meta labeling system that prevents minor's access to age-restricted web pages and mobile apps. Market-specific Best Practices and a universal Code of Ethics help guide digital media companies towards child-safe operation and are also among ASACP's tangible benefits.
Henning and Graham will participate on age verification panels at the upcoming Webmaster Access event in Amsterdam and The European Summit in Prague.
To learn how your company can make a real difference in online child safety by sponsoring ASACP, or to schedule a meeting in Europe, email email@example.com.
About ASACP
Founded in 1996, ASACP is a non-profit organization dedicated to online child protection.
ASACP is comprised of two separate corporate entities, the Association of Sites Advocating Child Protection and the ASACP Foundation. The Association of Sites Advocating Child Protection (ASACP) is a 501(c)(4) social welfare organization. ASACP manages a membership program that provides resources to companies in order to help them protect children online. The ASACP Foundation is a 501(c)(3) charitable organization. The ASACP Foundation battles child pornography through its CP Reporting Hotline and helps parents prevent children from viewing age-restricted material online with its Restricted To Adults (RTA) website label (www.rtalabel.org). ASACP has invested 21 years in developing progressive programs to protect children, and its relationship in assisting the adult industry's child protection efforts is unparalleled. For more information, visit www.asacp.org.


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Software Upgrade
Keep your mobile up-to-date, safely and quickly
Upgrade to the latest software available for your phone, and enjoy enhancements like new features, extra speed, improved functionality, OS upgrade and fixed for any bug.
What is benefits of software upgrade?
Release the up-to-date software version continuously for:
1. Improvements of performance and stability.
2. Resolve the potential problems by fixing bugs and errors.
3. OS upgrade and new features experience.
How to check for the latest software version?
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Go to Settings > (More) > About device > Software update > update
Before upgrade by OTA,
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- Make sure to charge the battery (more than 50% capacity) and to have the enough device memory. (at least 1GB )
- Do not remove the battery during upgrade.
- Do not use the rooted device.
Option 2. Computer with a cable
Install the 'Kies' and run it after connecting your phone. Simply follow the instructions shown in the 'Kies' software upgrade menu.
Option 3. Visiting the shops
Samsung Experience Shops(SES) are supporting the Smart Service* with software upgrade. Ask software upgrade service to Samsung experience Consultant at Samsung Experience Shop; you can enjoy the Samsung device, its accessories and contents freely during the upgrade time.
* Smart Service may not be available in some shops under space condition.
- Q. I'm concerned about my personal data loss like contacts and photos after software upgrade.
- A. All user data is preserved after upgrade. However, we recommend you backup the data before upgrade.
- Q. When I use OTA software upgrade wirelessly, I found the packet data is necessary. Does it charge the fee?
- A. It's depend on the policy of your network provider. It's recommended to use the available Wi-Fi network.
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Fast-Tracking Your Way from Fear to Freedom
Facing and overcoming your fears can leave you experiencing not only relief but a surprising amount of freedom too. With the following steps you can begin to categorise your fears in order to cut them down:
Make a hierarchy of the situations you fear. Start with your least dreaded situation and progress to your most dreaded situation.
Make a list of your safety behaviours – things you do that you think keep you safe.
Work your way up the hierarchy, dropping your safety behaviours and remaining in the situation.
Stay in the situation until your anxiety decreases by at least half without you doing anything to control it.
Repeat your exposure to your fearful situation over and over again until your fear lessens.
Record your results.


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There's been great buzz around this film about a teenage street gang in London that must defend their turf against an alien invasion. Nick Frost co-stars in this sci-fi adventure, which opens in the UK May 13, but is not yet scheduled stateside.
Everyone knows box office numbers and billboard placement don't great movies make, and sometimes you need a little time to sort through the noise to find the gems. We're pretty confident that when the glowing green dust settles in a year or so, "Attack the Block" will be hailed as one of the best summer movies of 2011...that no one saw.
A caustic antidote to the saccharine "Super 8," "Block" starts off with a similar premise: Aliens invade, and kids have to take to lead when things start going pear-shaped. But that's where the similarities end. Where the "Super 8" kids were fresh-faced, aw shucks, Middle American tykes, the "Attack the Block" crew are hoodie-wearing petty crooks terrorizing the London equivalent of the projects (their introductory scene involves them mugging a young woman).
"Block's" biggest accomplishment, however, is making you not only start to like these foul-mouthed hood rats, but eventually root for them as growling, ferocious fur-covered monsters start tearing up the joint. And make no mistake, as funny as the movie is, there are also real consequences to the action, a lot of blood shed, and many, many casualties. If J.J. Abrams was re-watching vintage Spielberg to get in the right wide-eyed mood for "Super 8", then "Block" director Joe Cornish (a screenwriter making his feature film directorial debut) most definitely dove into John Carpenter ('The Thing," "Escape from New York") and Walter HIll ("The Warriors").
The casual viewer may be put off by the, at times, unintelligible dialogue (lots of slang, thick accents, and motor-mouthed delivery combine at times to confusing effect) but once you get used to the rhythm of their dialect, it all starts to clear up - and Cornish knows when to dial it down to make sure the better lines stick (Like when one of the boys suggests they have to "get all" the aliens, another quips, "They ain't Pokemon, bruv.")
"Block" is also a master class in pacing. The movie starts off running and never slows down, keeping you jumping and hustling alongside the kids with barely a break. And Cornish keeps their legs moving by refusing to bludgeon the audience with the larger points he's making about inner city youth - you get bits of information here and there, and you're able to string together the point on your own.
Dark, thrilling, scary, violent, and frequently hilarious, "Attack the Block" is playing in limited release but do yourself a favor and seek it out. You won't regret it, bruv.


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Improve and Enhance Efficiency across Public Safety
Cisco provides first responders with real-time information to improve situational awareness and on-location effectiveness. Send real-time updates to officers or firefighters in the field and deliver live video to allow first responders to respond in real-time.
Solution Overviews
Learn how to make the right information and tools available, to the right agency, and to citizens, at the right time.
- Digitizing Law Enforcement Makes Us All Safer (PDF - 504 KB)
- Public Safety AAG (PDF-777 KB)
- Connected Justice Corrections (PDF - 528 KB)
- Connected Justice Overview At-A-Glance (PDF - 576 KB)
- Statewide Public Safety & Justice Portal (PDF- 801 KB)
- 5 Steps To Disaster Preparation At-A-Glance (PDF - 383 KB)
- Cisco NERV At a Glance (PDF - 174 KB)
- Cisco Secure Mobility Solution At-A-Glance (PDF - 525 KB)
- BYOD Demand in Government Organizations At-A-Glance (PDF - 1.5 MB)
- State and Local Governments Address the Proliferation of Employee Devices (PDF - 14.3 MB)
White Papers
- Transforming Public Safety Agencies Through Mobility
- Public Safety and the Internet of Everything
- The Connected Public Safety Agency (PDF - 5.22 MB)
- Improve and Enhance Efficiency across Public Safety (PDF - 2.16 MB)
Customer Video Case Studies
- Connect and Enhance Production (2:04 min)
- Positive Impact of Video Conferencing (1:34 min)
Case Studies
Learn how public-sector organizations are addressing Public Safety and Security with Cisco solutions.
- Highway Patrol Uses IP Technology to Improve Interoperability (PDF - 3.0 MB)
- County Emergency Management Mobilizes Network (PDF - 313 KB)
- Illinois Fire Departments Deploy Cisco Video Technology (PDF - 870 KB)
- Sheriff's Office Relies On Mobile Command Center (PDF - 163 KB)
- More Case Studies
Physical Security
Cisco Physical Security products provide video surveillance, IP cameras, access control, and incident response solutions.
- Cisco Physical Security Solution Overview (PDF-1.65 MB)
- Cisco Smart and Connected Safety and Security (PDF - 797 KB)
- Physical Security and Applications
- Find Grant Answers to Your Public Safety Questions (PDF- 228 KB)
Financing Offers
Take advantage of the unique financing benefits that Cisco Capital offers.
- Flexible Funding Options (PDF- 416 KB)
- Cisco Capital


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Collecting Information on Your E-Mail Marketing Contacts
When it comes to your e-mail marketing contacts, the only information you absolutely must collect are an e-mail address and permission to send your e-mails. However, even as you acquire basic information, make plans to gather more data over time so that you can better target your customers.
Gathering essential e-mail marketing information
Essential information for e-mail marketing purposes comes in two categories:
Professional: Information your contacts want you to know in order to send relevant business information, such as their preferred e-mail address, the products they're interested in, and their zip code, if you conduct events or have multiple locations.
Personal: Information you need in order to treat the prospect or customer as a human being. A first name is good to have along with any personal preferences relevant to your product or service (a travel agency may collect seat preference on flights, for example).
Expanding your knowledge of your e-mail contacts
Asking subscribers, both active and potential, to share their interests allows you to sort your e-mail lists into categories and send contacts in each category relevant information.
Open-ended questions rarely provide you with useable information and are difficult to categorize. Instead, provide multiple-choice answers with each answer corresponding to a category you can use to send targeted e-mails.
Ways to sort your communications include:
Communication type: Ask your subscribers to choose the information they would like to receive — and then send them just that. You can always ask contacts to update their preferences later.
Demographic interests: Asking for demographic information — such as age or income — can prove difficult because people are concerned about privacy, and they generally aren't willing to share this information unless they know why you need it and how you use it.
Try combining demographic and interest questions together as one category so that you can make inferences without having to be too direct. A sample of possible list titles:
Spare-no-expense travel destinations
Singles-only event invitations
Gardening on a budget
Preferred customer interests: Some people tell you what interests them only when they feel that they will get preferential treatment as a result. Try positioning interest information so that the reward is receiving the information, with lists like
Priority, reserved event tickets
First-to-know product announcements
Early bird access to product-specific sales
Classifying your e-mail contacts by behavior
You can collect behavioral interests on your e-mail contacts by making assumptions based on answers to questions or by observing how prospects, subscribers, or customers behave in the context of your business relations. Segmenting your subscribers into private lists allows you to send more relevant information without involving subscribers in a time-consuming process.
Keep your behavioral interest categories private. Your contacts may not self-identify with the label you place on them.
List categories that can prove useful include
Coupon users: These customers are more likely to respond to promotions with associated discounts and freebies.
Repeat buyers: If you can identify when certain subscribers are likely to be thinking about a purchase, you can sort them by date of last purchase and send your message when they're likely to be interested in a purchase.
Very Important Customers (VICs): This list can include big spenders, frequent shoppers, referral sources, or people who give you valuable feedback about your business. VICs should be welcomed, thanked, and pampered.
Advocates: Hopefully, you have some customers (besides Mom and Dad) who just love your business and recommend you to friends and family. Segmenting advocates into a separate list allows you to send them gifts and incentives that no one else receives.
Customers and prospects: The nature of a business relationship often changes after a person has parted with some money, and the nature of your communications probably needs to change as well.