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Economics doesn't seem able to predict anything of great import. It certainly didn't seem able to predict or even, after the fact, explain the recent banking and financial crisis; the repercussions of which will be felt by millions for decades to come. Why was this? What are the limits of economic prediction? Here are just a few thoughts.
Although I'm a simple economist and not a physicist – who do tend to think, pithily though incorrectly, that anything other than physics is stamp collecting – I'd like to venture the opinion that even in physical mechanics there are two primary ways by which we can make predictions. They have to do with what we can call "momentum" and "cyclicality".
If you're driving along a straight motorway and someone asks you to predict where you will be in a few seconds time, the most likely outcome, and thus possibly the best prediction, is that you'll still be on the motorway but just a bit further on. The car has momentum and so, even if the engine suddenly packs up, you'll probably still be on the road in the near future – momentum will tend to see to that. Of course lots of other things might happen. I could suddenly decide to take the exit road that has appeared, fall asleep at the wheel or hit an on-coming lorry that has crashed through the central barriers into my path. But all these things require human volition – that means me or others making choices and taking decisions – so they are not purely mechanical. Without volition, mechanical momentum, even angular momentum, will generally determine where I'll end up in the very near future. Over much longer periods of time it's also possible to predict with great accuracy where a moving asteroid will be quite far out into the future.
In economics it's the same thing. If the rate inflation in the first quarter of any year is, let's say, 2.5%, it's highly unlikely that in the subsequent quarter it will be 20%. It's possible but very improbable. If the inflation rate were a random walk (which it isn't) the best forecast of next quarter's rate would be what it was in the last quarter i.e. 2.5%. However economists can incorporate various leading indicators into their models and might thus predict that the second quarter inflation rate will be 2.7%. Basically unless something very drastic happens -a huge meteor strike or a nuclear war for example – I think it's clear that the economy, and thus the inflation rate, have both inertia and momentum.
Whether an economist predicts that next quarter's inflation will be 2.5%, 2.4% or 2.7%, the prediction will be reasonably accurate (depending on our definition of accurate), but only because of the inertia and momentum in the system. If you ask an economist to forecast what the inflation rate will be in 10 years time, he or she will either wisely refuse to make a prediction or if he or she does offer one it will, after the elapsed period of time, tend to prove to have been wildly inaccurate.
All physical scientists and engineers know this.
Meteorology is a science; yet even with all their sophisticated and mathematically elaborate models, meteorologists generally limit their weather forecasts to a few days out. If they get ambitious then they may extend this to a few weeks. They have no idea what the weather will really be like in London next June. Perhaps because it's summer they could predict it's not likely to be freezing, a point to which I will return in an oblique way later on. But even in the short term they can get it spectacularly wrong. Those who live in Britain might remember, as I do, the BBC's weatherman, Michael Fish, confidently telling us in 1987 that: "Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way… well, if you're watching, don't worry, there isn't!". That evening, the worst storm since 1703 hit South East England. It caused record damage and killed 18 people. It also ripped off my roof! So even meteorology can only hope to make reasonably accurate weather predictions for very short periods – and then not always with complete success. This is because weather is a very complex dynamic system, and so its predictions tend to rely primarily on inertia and momentum.
The second, and related, way in which we can make predictions is by taking account of cyclicality – events or patterns that repeat or reoccur. Our mechanical models can forecast the next appearance of Haley's comet with great accuracy, as well as the times of the daily ebbs and flows of the tides at any location on the planet. Although these predictions are not strictly 100% accurate, they are very nearly so, and thus they are extremely useful. Newtonian classical mechanics can and does predict a hell of a lot, and with enough certainty to have made it the bedrock of many of the most useful technological advances over the last couple of hundred years or so.
Unlike economics, the physical and other natural sciences have moved on from classical mechanics. This doesn't mean they've abandoned it but just that mechanics and a "reductionist" method can't explain everything. Einstein's theories of relativity were a revelation. They told us truths about the nature of Space-Time that we could have hardly conceived before. Without knowing that time goes slower the faster we travel the world's GPS system would become fairly inaccurate within a day or so. The two theories of relativity have been experimentally confirmed on numerous occasions since Einstein proposed them and they have enabled scientists to push forward the limits of physical prediction.
Similarly, and please excuse my economist's ignorance of the subject, while the world awaits a grand unifying theory, it does seem to be the case that the sub-atomic world operates very differently to the macro world. You can't simultaneously predict the position and momentum of particles; all you can do is work out some probabilities. Not only that but it seems that particles can disappear from one place and then reappear in another, seemingly without having been anywhere else in the interim! But theoretical quantum mechanics, despite its probabilistic nature, can also make predictions which are very often confirmed by experimental physicists. Even predictions of the likely existence of things – such as Higgs' Boson.
Before turning back to economics, perhaps we can mention the weather again and even, though with some trepidation, the climate. Regarding the weather, I guess we've all heard how the flapping of a butterfly's wings might cause a hurricane in India and about chaos theory in general. The problem for meteorologists when trying to predict the weather, over any time period other than the very short term, is that even if we can fully understand all mechanical and physical processes in their entirety, and thus could theoretically build comprehensive mathematical models that are fully deterministic – by this I mean for example that the weather system could be treated as a closed system uninfluenced by such outside "stochastic" shocks as periodic solar flares and the like – unless you can specify with absolute precision the exact starting positions, mass and energy, the "initial conditions", of every atom that is involved in the dynamic development of weather, you'll never be able to predict the weather somewhere in the world more than a few days out. Meteorologists know this and thus tend not to make such predictions.
As I mentioned, I hesitate to touch on climatology and climate change, about which I know even less than I do about meteorology. Is there such a thing as global warming? Is it man-made? Such questions also touch on the nature of scientific prediction and on issues of cause and effect. From a personal point of view all I can say is that it does seem from the overwhelming bulk of the evidence provided by science that the earth is warming and that this doesn't seem to be just another of the normal and natural cycles of changes in the climate witnessed on the planet. Rather it does appear to be caused by mankind. Even with my limited knowledge of physics and chemistry, I think it stands to reason that if you pump lots of gases with known properties into the atmosphere, it would be strange if they didn't produce the normal physical and chemical effects – i.e. warming.
The point I would like to make here as it relates to the nature and limits of prediction is this: Assuming that the conventional scientific wisdom on climate change is correct, it's still quite unlikely that the trend in rising temperature will be a neat linear one – that the cumulative build-up and concentration in the atmosphere of gases such as CO2 will lead to a parallel incremental rise in the world's average temperature. The study of the deep history of the earth's climate plus an understanding of biological evolution and eco-systems, has quite clearly demonstrated that physical and biological systems often jump almost instantaneously from one condition to another (from one equilibrium to another if you prefer). These jumps are often referred to as "tipping points". We see similar "phase transitions" in physics.
Potential tipping points are understandably one of the fears of climate change scientists – not to speak of the rest of us. In terms of prediction, although we know that such tipping points have happened and do happen, because the climate is undisputedly a complex system, and I would argue a complex adaptive system at that, we might probabilistically suggest that such jumps, or tipping points, are quite possible in the future due to global warming. But I don't think we are in a position to predict with any certainty or accuracy when such a jump will happen nor its extent and nor what the precise trigger for it might be.
I want to use these examples from the physical sciences as analogies for economics. Not, I hasten to add, as strict equivalences.
In the example I gave of driving along a straight motorway, the reason we might be able to predict where we will be in a few seconds is momentum. And so, as I suggested, short term predictions of key economic variables such as inflation, employment, growth etc also depend on momentum, coupled with the data provided by some key available leading indicators.
But think about it. Driving a car is not an exclusively physical act; it is also a social act. There is an actor – the driver. This actor, or "agent" as we might call him or her, has a whole raft of characteristics. Just two of these are that he has volition to choose or to decide at any moment what to do, and he can also adapt to the circumstances he finds himself in. If a motorway exit suddenly appears the driver can decide either to turn off the road or stay on it. If he turns off he will make our simple mechanistic prediction based on momentum wrong; even though he won't break any physical laws.
The economy and anything remotely economic is like the situation of the driver writ large. There are millions of individual, collective and institutional agents continually making choices and decisions – i.e. exercising their volition. They are also adapting their actions according to the actions of others and the collective result of all these actions. That's life. The economy is very decidedly a complex adaptive system. From the point of view of economic prediction it doesn't really matter if the "rules" used by the actors to help them make their decisions are completely "deterministic" or if there are also a stochastic "shocks" as well. Even with completely deterministic rules, the longer term dynamics of any complex adaptive system are, in the real world as well as in modelling, pretty much non-predictable. Why so? Surely if, like with the weather, we knew all the rules and all the initial conditions of every actor/agent, we could predict the outcome? The answer to this question is that "Yes" in theory we could. Unfortunately for the purposes of prediction the physical, social and economic worlds don't work like that. Not only do we not know all the rules (I'll leave that to one side) but if you change the initial conditions of any single actor/agent even in the tiniest degree then the collective result, after a bit of interaction, will not just be slightly different, it will be completely different – and this you can't predict ex ante, before the event.
Quite categorically this means that economic predictions, even if they could be based on fully deterministic mechanistic rules and modelling (or maybe any type of modelling), will never be able to forecast the timing and magnitude of economic events with any accuracy over more than the short term. They decidedly can't predict the future positioning and situation of individual agents. This has actually been the experience of economics. It has rarely been able to predict anything of any great macro importance by using conventional neoclassical theories and associated modelling techniques. Occasionally a prediction might get lucky and will no doubt be much trumpeted as a great success for the predictor and for his/her economic model. Yet I do tend to think that these rare "successes" might better be explained in terms of "Black Swans" and the like, so persuasively discussed by Nicholas Taleb Nassim.
Where does that leave us? Strange though it might sound, I do actually believe that economics can make some very insightful and useful predictions or forecasts; but they are not of the type I've discussed thus far. Rather they have to do with cyclicality or, more generally, with regularly repeating patterns.
Take the latest banking and financial crisis; a crisis that will inevitably lead to the gradual impoverishment of countless ordinary people throughout the world over the next decades, despite the fact that it wasn't in any way their fault.
We know that most conventional economics (and unfortunately that means the neoclassical economics I studied for so many years) failed to predict this crisis. Economists and central bankers (not to mention ideologically driven politicians and greedy investment bankers) continually asserted that all was well in the world. When the crisis hit it was rather amusing, though a little sad as well, to witness the spectacle of Queen Elizabeth, when she visited my alma mater, the London School of Economics, asking why economists hadn't seen the crisis coming. There was lots of embarrassed huffing and puffing and subsequently quite a bit of blather about how economics should take more account of "systemic risk" and such like. But there was no real answer. Actually most economists and even policy-makers have by now admitted that "there was something wrong with our models". This crisis simply shouldn't have been able to happen. Even central bankers such as Alan Greenspan and Mervyn King admitted this; not to speak of some of the more honest archpriests of the intellectually and empirically vacuous bunkum that is called "Modern Finance Theory". In economic circles what then happened was that economists dashed around like chickens without heads (as a very senior central banker once told me), trying both to stick on a few patches and retrofit their theories to the experience of events. One commentator on something I recently wrote to this effect even said that it would be better to say that they "retrofitted the facts or denied them completely". That's probably fair though a little hard.
In true sciences if a theory is shown by experiment to be unable to make accurate predictions, or even not to be able to explain what has happened after the event then, despite many entrenched reputations, it is eventually abandoned. This doesn't seem to be the case in economics. I think the reasons have to do with power, but that's for another time.
Yet certain economists did actually predict that there would be a banking crisis and a subsequent economic meltdown. Perhaps not that many; but there were quite a few. Let me just mention the Australian economist Steve Keen in passing – I'll quote more such if need be. Such economists knew, either explicitly or implicitly, that the economy and the banking system were both complex adaptive systems. Thus they never dreamed of making point estimates as to the timing of the onset of the financial crisis nor its magnitude nor, indeed, what might be the triggering event. No, what they did, with an understanding of some very simple economic principals, was to see that the developing economic dynamics (for example of the build-up of the levels of absolute debt) were displaying a known historical pattern. We had seen this before and we had seen the results. How could it not happen again? Something was bound to crack. We can term such events Minsky moments or something else but the fact is that their predictions were predicated on an understanding of "cyclicality" in the economy – an understanding of historical dynamics, repeating economic patterns and how and why these patterns arise.
On the other hand, neoclassical economists do tend to have a sort of collective amnesia when it comes to the past. They don't seem to have learned anything from what's gone before. To be sure these cyclicalities and patterns of economic dynamics aren't in any way like the regularity of the amplitude and frequency of physical waves or the regular ebbs and flows of the tides. They're not even like the cycles of various economic "trade cycle" theories once so beloved of economists. How could they be! Anyone who has ever looked at the dynamic properties of complex adaptive systems will know that sometimes a system will start to oscillate. These oscillations might be explosive or they might die down, only to appear once again, possibly after a long period of relative stability, but in any case certainly totally unpredictably. But what economics can try to do, and is increasingly doing, is not to predict precisely when a particular event or "crisis" will occur, or even to suggest what might trigger it, which is unknowable. Why not Northern Rock or Bear Stearns? Why Lehman Brothers? Rather what they try to do is look at the prevailing economic conditions and how these are developing through time (and space) and predict, with a decent knowledge of real economics and economic history, what seems likely will happen. It's not much, but that's what the economics profession can do in terms of prediction if it puts its mind to it.
Economic prediction will never be a precise science, if it's a science at all. But, I would like to suggest, useful predictions can be made if we use what we know about how economies really work and tend to evolve (and we know quite a bit) coupled with a greater historical awareness.
In terms of economic modelling and the use of mathematics in economics, both of which I support, the main questions to ask of models are: What are we using this model for? And what are we trying to predict with it? A topic for another day.
Ultimately I think it's the explanatory power of economics more than its limited ability to predict that is of crucial importance. If we understand how and why something has happened it will go a long way towards enabling us to create a system that might limit the deleterious things we wish to avoid.


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There is a multitude of impact categories available for impact assessment in LCA. Morten Kokborg will walk you through the most common impact categories and the underlying methodology, and share best practices and recommendations when to use which method.
The update to GaBi Server allows databases to be subdivided into different accessible layers. Great news for organisations with multiple divisions or units.
The third edition of the PEF test kit encompasses changes that the European Commission recently published: two new End of Life formulas and weighting factors for impact methods to deliver one single impact indicator.
Version II of the PEF Test Kit uses 3 new End of Life formulas that the European Commission recently published. This webinar gives an update on the PEF initiative, introduces the new PEF Test kit and shows how to easily evaluate data quality indicators.
Mário Alberto Becker
E-Mail+55 11 3214-5573

subset: commoncrawl


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Workshop Schedule Lark Camp 2019
Most workshops are designed to run the full length of camp. If you are coming for half camp you will be taking partial workshops
Lark Camp Music Library
Lark Camp Music Library - A place where you can find lots of the written music from Lark Camp.
Folk World Music
One of a kind and antique musical instruments for sale from the directors of Lark Camp.
Articles about Lark Camp in the news from the New York Times to Strings Magazine and more!
Lark Camp YouTube videos from Lark Campers.
Join the Lark Camp Facebook group.
Lark Camp Designs Store
A selection of Lark Camp designs. Shirts, mugs, bags and more.
Mickie & Elizabeth Zekley
Music by the directors of Lark Camp and their family
Mendocino Woodlands
Where Lark camp takes place
Lark Camp Folk Community
Folk music related web sites of friends of Lark Camp
Lark Tales
Stories told by people who have meandered along the misty, musical paths of Lark Camp
Kid's Play
A page about the play that the kids at Lark Camp perform on the last evening of camp with pictures of the play being rehearsed
Monthly Mendocino English Country Dances
Come dance with us when you are in Mendocino.


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Traveling with a lighter heart
I have often heard hearts referred to as "heavy" or "light" by pastors, teachers and by friends in daily conversations. But what does that reference mean?
I read in Proverbs 25:20, "As he that taketh away a garment in cold weather, and as vinegar upon nitre, so is he that singeth songs to a heavy heart." The Amplified Bible renders that verse, "He who sings songs to a heavy heart is like him who lays off a garment in cold weather and like vinegar upon soda." Apparently, many people have had heavy hearts down through history.
But we also read much about the joyful or light hearts, too. We read in Romans 12:15 that we are to "Rejoice with those who rejoice (sharing others' joy) and weep with those who weep (sharing others' grief)" (Amplified Bible translation). Personally, I want my life to be light, joyful, happy and at peace with God and with my fellow man and woman. It hasn't always been that way.
One thing I can attribute to Hurricane Ike that was good for many of us who called the Bolivar Peninsula home — the blessed joy of downsizing or simplifying. It is probably something I would have never undertaken on my own, but it has helped me lead a much more simple, less complex, and happy life. I simply don't have that much to keep up with any longer. Because we were in Atlanta burying my mom when the storm hit and destroyed our beach home and all of the possessions I owned except what was in my one suitcase, I had little to worry about or to store and keep with up on a daily basis. Sure, I missed big things right away, and still today, nearly five years later, not a day goes by that I don't miss something.
A perfect example is when my husband, Ted, and I were invited by a coalition of mayors, insurance executives, public adjusters and attorneys to travel to the storm ravaged East Coast and speak in town hall meetings to wonderful people facing now what we faced then. I looked for my pretty red and black coat. We knew that New Jersey and New York would be colder than Texas and Ted warned me to pack a good coat, gloves and scarves or hats. I looked in my closet, then I looked in his closet, and then out in the garage for the beautiful coat he had purchased for me as a Valentine gift. The coat was bright red trimmed out in black. I loved that coat and it fit just right, which is a rare thing.
After looking for two days and nights off and on, it hit me like a brick. "Ted, did you buy that coat before the storm or after the storm?" He stopped eating and looked startled. "I think it may have been before the storm." Everything in our lives will always be marked BI (before Ike) or AI (after Ike). I no longer own that coat or anything else I had then including jewels of a lifetime, gifts my kids made me, important collectables, clothing, shoes and boots, and purses. But of all the things I lost, I still miss my books on a daily basis. We have never found one shred of our home or anything that was inside it when Ike hit.
We have learned to travel light, and I like it a lot. I have simply learned to do without much of what I once considered important in my life. Not to worry, we have the essentials, and our home is comfortable, but we do not have the stored supplies we once had. We could move much more easily now. It wouldn't take as long. We would not be quite so tired.
In learning this physical truth, I believe I have also learned a delightful spiritual lesson, too. God doesn't want His children to get too accustomed to this old world. We should travel lightly here, too. One day, He will call or we will die, and we will move to Heaven. It will be a lot easier if we are not encumbered with so many weights and burdens. I have just re-read a wonderful book by Max Lucado titled "Traveling Light." His subtitle for the book is, "Releasing the burdens you were never intended to bear." He encourages the reader to lose much of the luggage of life and to enjoy the journey more.
I wish for you, our faithful readers, the absolute joy of learning to travel more lightly this year, both physically and spiritually.
Brenda Cannon Henley can be reached at (409) 781-8788 or at brendacannonhenley [at] yahoo [dot] com.


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The Accounting Historians Journal Vol. 8, No. 2 Fall 1981
Vassilios P. Filios
Abstract: A feature of the history of accounting thought is the existence of con-tending theories of accounts in continental Europe. Four schools of accounting thought developed and are here briefly examined.
At the end of the 19th century, two theories of accounts gradually appeared in American textbooks and treatises on accounting—the proprietary and the entity theories. A third and later development is the enterprise theory, espoused by many modern writers. Ac-cording to the proprietary theory of accounts, capital is the amount of assets to which owners possess a claim after indebtedness to third parties has been recognized. Income, from this viewpoint, is the change in net assets. According to the entity theory of accounts, capital encompasses both debt and equity, income being the change in total capital. The enterprise theory of accounts emerged after the Great Crash of 1929 and takes a broader view of the busi-ness firm, emphasizing the economic effects of business operations on all of its participants and consequently, upon society as a whole. According to the enterprise theory of accounts, capital also en-compasses all items on the right side of the balance sheet but in this theory net income is deemphasized and asset flows to partici-pants are accentuated.1 The enterprise theory of accounts is the first social theory of accounting in Anglo-Saxon countries.
Along parallel, but not very similar lines, four other categories of theories of accounts have been developed in the French and German speaking world—the personification, legal, materialist, and economic theories of accounts. The origins of these European ac-
I am deeply grateful to Professor Constantinos Triposkiadis of the Athens Grad-uate School of Economics and Business Sciences and Professor Kenneth S. Most of Florida International University for their invaluable help in matters of syntax and expression. I would like also to thank the anonymous referees of the Accounting Historians Journal for their helpful comments.


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Views: 375
The thing I have been pondering is after Matt Smith passes the sonic screwdriver to Doctor number 12 is will hhhhhhis 12th regeneration actually be the Valeyard as it was mentioned during Colin Baker's run as The Doctor? Or does that not happen because the Universe was reboted at the end of The Big Bang kind of like what JJ Abrams did with Star Trek? I know that they are having selective amnesia with some things regarding events in the classic series and at the time Colin Baker was The Doctor, they probably didn't think that the show was going to be on for much longer let alone become a worldwide hit 20 years later. I would be interested to find out if The Dreamlord is in fact TheRailyard. :)
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Manuel, Sandberg emphasize structured practice
PHILADELPHIA -- Big leaguers need practice, too.
But organized infield and outfield work during the season had become so sporadic that any structured pregame practice at all stood out like a sore thumb. The Phillies picked up those sessions a bit following last season's July 31 Trade Deadline, but they typically were limited to the first game of every home series.
That is changing. They already had practices Friday and Saturday and have another scheduled Monday, as Phillies third-base coach and infield instructor Ryne Sandberg makes them part of the team's routine. He said they will be 20-minute sessions as needed and as he sees fit before home games.
"That's what I do," Sandberg said. "That's what I like to see happen. It's a stress on defense. It allows us to have time to work on things. It'll be something that will be stressed throughout the whole year."
The Phillies took ground balls regularly in the past, but it typically occurred during batting practice. Phillies manager Charlie Manuel calls this a more structured, more hands-on setup that allows for more discussion and teaching. The sessions are mandatory.
Manuel likes it.
"The fact it is more organized, it gives you time to talk to get your points across as far as mistakes we've made or things we want to improve on," Manuel said. "It's a little bit stricter coaching and I like that. I like everything about that."
But structured practices do seem to be a rare occurrence in baseball these days, not only with the Phillies, but every team.
"I don't think getting away from it is a good thing," Sandberg said. "Having it is a very positive thing. In my day we took infield every day, except for day games. I think it's something that's necessary to stay sharp and stay on top of things. We'll also have the outfielders join us and throw to the bases, probably twice a homestand or something like that.
"It's for everybody to stay sharp on defense. It's a big part of the game. To work on it and stress it becomes important."


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Calla Lily rental inventory sale!Heidi Hope Backdrops
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Signature backdrop $50 per day after your return date Limited Edition Backdrops $65 per day after your return date
Your card will be charged the daily rate until 200% of the total value of the backdrop is reached, at which point you may keep the backdrop. Late fees are in addition to the rental fee of the product. If you have not returned a rental item within 30 days after the return date, your late return will be considered a non-return and Heidi Hope Backdrops will charge your credit card or debit card the maximum late fee (200% of retail value), less any fees plus applicable sales tax that you have already paid.


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Rea doubles in MSU's 5-4 win over Beavers at CWS
Mississippi State took the lead on Wes Rea's two-run double in the eighth inning, closer Jonathan Holder turned back two Oregon State threats, and the Bulldogs beat the Beavers 5-4 on Saturday in the opening game of the College World Series.
-- Live Wire: College World Series updates
The Bulldogs (49-18) advanced to a Monday game against Indiana or Louisville. The Beavers (50-12), the No. 3 national seed, are one loss from elimination.
Hunter Renfroe's comebacker off Matt Boyd (10-4) put runners on first and second in the eighth. Rea then sent the go-ahead double into the right-center gap.
Holder got out of a jam after Oregon State put two runners on base in the eighth. The Beavers had two runners on in the ninth when Danny Hayes drove a ball to right that Renfroe caught on the warning track to end the game and give Holder his 19th save. Ross Mitchell (13-0) got the win.


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Mourinho denies FA charge
Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho has denied a Football Association misconduct charge related to his post-match comments following the Premier League loss to Sunderland.
The relegation-threatened Black Cats ended Mourinho's 77-match unbeaten home league run with a 2-1 win on April 19.
Mourinho could not hide his anger afterwards behind a sarcastic appraisal of the officials. He has requested a non-personal hearing in the case, the FA has announced.
His assistant Rui Faria, who was dismissed for angrily confronting the match officials, has admitted two charges of misconduct and requested a non-personal hearing.
Midfielder Ramires received a retrospective four-match ban, ending his domestic season, for striking Sebastian Larsson during the loss.
Mourinho and Faria had until 1800BST on Monday to respond to the charges, which were levelled last Wednesday.
A FA statement read: "Jose Mourinho has denied an FA charge and requested a non-personal hearing in relation to comments he made following Chelsea's game against Sunderland on April 19, 2014.
"It is alleged that Mourinho's post-match comments constitute improper conduct, in that they call into question the integrity of the referee appointed to the above fixture (Mike Dean) and/or the integrity of Mr Mike Riley, general manager of the Professional Game Match Officials Limited, and/or the comments bring the game into disrepute.
"In relation to the same fixture, Chelsea assistant manager Rui Faria has admitted two misconduct breaches and requested a non-personal hearing.
"The first breach was that Faria used abusive and/or insulting words towards the fourth official (Phil Dowd). The second breach was that Faria's behaviour following the match referee's request that he leave the technical area amounted to improper conduct.
"A date for both hearings will be set in due course."
It is Mourinho's latest brush with authority this season.
Mourinho challenged a charge related to his dismissal at Aston Villa last month as a point of principle and is considering his options after being hit with an £8,000 penalty, his second of the season after his sending-off against Cardiff.
The Portuguese was tight-lipped on Friday following the charge.
"Every time I speak there is a consequence," Mourinho said.
"Even if I say that a referee was amazing that was a reason to be with a charge.
"I can't say the truth. I don't feel free at all. If you want a better press conference, speak with the FA."
Asked about the British sense of humour and sarcasm, Mourinho said: "So Mr Bean is in jail...
"I told the referee he was amazing, and I repeat: the referee was amazing.
"I was not surprised (by the disciplinary action). In football I'm never surprised."
He was also sarcastic in commenting on Ramires' ban - "He's a lucky guy. We accept the charge because we are happy with it," Mourinho said - and is again unhappy he could be forced to pay a fine.
"When I have to give money, I prefer to do it privately," he said.
"My wife says that charity is anonymous. I prefer to do that than give money because people decide to take money out of my pocket."
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Didja accidentally blow through the whole, "We're using our real names" thing on registration? No problem, just send me (Mike) a Conversation message and I'll get you sorted, by which I mean hammered-into-obedient-line because I'm SO about having a lot of individuality-destroying, oppressive shit all over my forum.Dismiss Notice
Discussion areas for the individual classes are unlocked for all users. Let's see if this makes it any more useful. If not, we'll drop this or organize under a single banner to save space and lean things out.Dismiss Notice
Action Scene Re-Score
Discussion in 'Critique & Feedback' started by Marko Dvojkovic, Nov 30, 2019.


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Welcome to Royals Then, Now Forever
For all those who have stopped to visit the Royals Hall of Fame (RHOF) since the Grand Opening of the building here at Kauffman Stadium on July 17, 2009, let us extend a huge thank you for your support of the project. So far more than 40,000 fans have come through the doors and counting…
If you haven't had the chance to come out and join us yet here is your written invitation to check out what so many people had a hand in creating. The project was over a year and a half in the making and the way we look at it this is just the start. Over time we look forward to shedding light on even more great stories, interesting people and thrilling moments from not only Royals history but also from the 125 years of professional baseball in Kansas City.
The Royals Hall of Fame is open during every Royals home game at no additional charge with your game ticket. The RHOF will also be open during the off-season every Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday from 10am-4pm.
Drop by and let us know what you think.
Also drop by here at Royals Then, Now & Forever (Royals TNF) every so often as we share news, notes and stories related to Kansas City Royals History. In the words Jack Layden, the original voice of Municipal and Royals Stadium for the Royals – "It's great to have you with us!"
(Curt Nelson, Director – Royals Hall of Fame)


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Senator Barbara Boxer clawed her way to a win, calling it one of the toughest races of her life, but now that it's over the focus is now on her comrade, Senator Dianne Feinstein.
At her victory celebration, Boxer even shouted a premature "Feinstein 2012," which seemed to imply that the senior senator, Feinstein, would seek another term.
And as far as her competition? The names are already out there. And one that looms large -- even on the heels of her big loss to Jerry Brown -- is Meg Whitman.
"She'll be back," predicts Ronnee Schreiber, an expert on Republican female candidates and a political science professor at San Diego State University. But "she has a lot of work to do, to shore up support among Latinos."
Schreiber adds that Whitman seemed to have a "connection" problem in relating to voters.
And it's been pointed out that the fact that she and Carly Fiorina, who lost to Boxer, were both CEOs didn't help in an economy where people were losing their homes and jobs.
"Money alone doesn't buy an election. It may get you admission (to the race) but not the victory," says Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, Senior Fellow at USC's School of Policy, Planning and Development. Whitman was a "flawed candidate, had a weak campaign. The political environment wasn't happy with CEOs with Wall Street ties and Brown took advantage of that."
Tucker Bounds, communications director for the now-dismantled Whitman gubernatorial campaign, declined to comment about Whitman's future.
But if Whitman does decide to regroup and run again, she should start the campaign sooner rather than later, says Schreiber. The exit poll information is a resource that would reveal who didn't vote for her and why.
"She needs to do the Obama thing and say, 'I heard you, I'm listening now and working on that,'" Schreiber said, "and then do something about it."


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Cartesian equation:
(x2 + y2 - 2ax)2 = 4a2(x2 + y2)
Polar equation:
r = 2a(1 + cos(θ))
Click below to see one of the Associated curves.
|Definitions of the Associated curves
|Involute 1
|Involute 2
|Inverse curve wrt origin
|Inverse wrt another circle
|Pedal curve wrt origin
|Pedal wrt another point
|Negative pedal curve wrt origin
|Negative pedal wrt another point
|Caustic wrt horizontal rays
|Caustic curve wrt another point
Its length had been found by La Hire in 1708, and he therefore has some claim to be the discoverer of the curve. In the notation given above the length is 16a. It is a special case of the Limacon of Pascal (Etienne Pascal) and so, in a sense, its study goes back long before Castillon or La Hire.
There are exactly three parallel tangents to the cardioid with any given gradient. Also the tangents at the ends of any chord through the cusp point are at right angles. The length of any chord through the cusp point is 4a and the area of the cardioid is 6πa2.
We can easily give parametric equations for the cardioid, namely
If the cusp of the cardioid is taken as the centre of inversion, the cardioid inverts to a parabola.
The caustic of a cardioid, where the radiant point is taken to be the cusp, is a nephroid.
There are some other heart-shaped curves, sent to us by Kurt Eisemann (San Diego State University, USA):
(i) The curve with Cartesian equation: y = 0.75 x2/3 ± √(1 - x2). Show the picture
(ii) The curve with Polar equation: r = sin2(π/8 - θ/4). Show the picture
Other Web site:
Xah Lee
|Main index
|Famous curves index
|Previous curve
|Next curve
The URL of this page is:


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Beneath the dated moiré wallpaper, the navy blue wall-to-wall carpet, and the loudly contrasting peach paint, Susan Jamieson recognized a 1924 classic home. Not for a minute did she doubt that she could mute the visual cacophony lingering from the '80s to produce the kind of serene spaces she and her husband, John, could proudly call home.
New landscaping and paint ehanced the curb appeal of the 1924 Greek Revival-style house.
"As soon as we walked into the foyer, we knew this was the house for them. It had all the right features—Greek Revival-style architectural details with the kind of rich, well-crafted character that you can best find in an older home," Susan says.
John, a software consultant, was happy to defer to his wife's judgment. As an ASID member who studied design in Florence and holds a BFA in art history and a masters degree in interior design, Susan was the better qualified to make the call. And as she saw it, all the house needed was a good molting to bring out the natural beauty of the home, which she would then enhance with her own special feathering-an impeccable selection of fine antiques and art plus new and custom home furnishings and a grand finale of her own signature window treatments.
"I couldn't wait for the work crews to arrive," she recalls. "The day of the closing, I was removing the moiré wallpaper and ripping up the carpet." Ridding the kitchen of its yellow laminate and linoleum came later.
Beginning in the living room, she introduced the creamy colors that weave all the spaces together. "Although I enjoy working with color, this house called for a neutral palette that radiates a sense of pure and classic elegance," Susan notes. "The soft tones of cream, white, and gray make the living room's European hand-carved marble mantel a dramatic focal point."
Susan added metallic glint with the table, the custom fireplace screen, and the silver-tone nailhead trim on a pair of suede chairs.
Designed with four formal rooms that form a perfect square, the architecture required some care with color. "Each of these rooms feeds into the next through architecturally detailed openings, so it was very important to make the design flow from one room to the other." Adhering to her basic palette of pale neutrals prevented jarring disconnections, but Susan still managed to individualize rooms by taking each one a step up or down in tone from its adjacent spaces. "I changed the wall hue slightly between rooms. While the living room has a calm, crisp look, the trellis-patterned wallpaper and the gold of the draperies make the dining room more dramatic," she says.
Designed by Susan, the faux-snakesking-framed mirror above the original hand-carved marble mantel brings textural interest to the monochromatic living room.
With the backgrounds beautifully simplified, Susan began to choose furnishings, starting in the living room with the Empire sofa she had inherited from her grandmother. "I changed its green velvet to a white quilted pattern that creates a dramatic contrast to the sofa's wood frame." The dark-light contrast is a theme throughout the house, with the dark wood floors playing off the pale walls.
Susan Jamieson reupholstered her grandmother's Empire sofa for the living room. The coffee table and lamp echo its curves, which are offset by the straight lines of the puddling draperies.
Susan further interior decorating of the living room with comfortable new chairs that echo the curves of the sofa and fireplace. "Then, I juxtaposed those curves with the straight, linear forms of the draperies, fire screen, and mirror"-all her own designs. "The full puddle draperies help to soften and heighten the room and enhance the natural beauty of the windows," she says. Plus, say her friends, they are as elegant as ball gowns. Interlined with bump (soft, thick cotton), the draperies feature two fabrics. The bottom section repeats the quilted pattern of the sofa, while the top sports a tone-on-tone vertical stripe. A faux-snakeskin mirror frame she designed to top the mantel steps up the room's textural intrigue. "A neutral room runs the risk of feeling cold and monotonous unless patterns and textures are a part of its decorating," Susan warns.
In the dining room, Susan skirted the table for softness. The old sideboard recalls Chippendale.
Personal pieces are also important to the design of the home. "The gold-and-crystal chandelier in the center of the dining room is the one used in the tent set up for our wedding," Susan says by way of illustration. The dining room's metal artwork is by contemporary artist Bill Fisher, whose work the couple began collecting upon their marriage. "Our wedding gift to each other was a large Bill Fisher painting, which was featured in an exhibition at the Chrysler Museum in Norfolk, Virginia." To help integrate Fisher's metal art into the dining room, Susan mounted an old cast-iron floor register with intricate grillwork onto the wall between the windows-a decision that stamps the room with a one-of-a-kind personality.
The library celebrates air and earthw ith fresh white paint, chocolate-hued barrel chairs—re-covered family pieces—and a brick-red ottoman.
Although the house includes a family room (the fourth room that forms the square), the couple's favorite room is the library. "We sit here every morning and evening to read and talk," Susan shares. When they moved in, the room had floor-to-ceiling bookcases that were painted navy blue and were underscored by green wall-to-wall carpet. "It was claustrophobic," she says of the small space. And, with a 14-foot ceiling, the visual weight was uncomfortably vertical. "I painted the bookcases white to open up the room, then painted the ceiling a warm caramel color to visually bring it down." For seating, she re-covered old barrel-back chairs passed down from John's parents-chairs she admires for "their retro look." A new table makes the room multifunctional.
A lacquered finish gives a burnished glow to the master bedroom's end tables. The patterned border of the silk window shades recalls decorative painting on the crown moldings (not shown).
Susan's design goal for the master bedroom was "soft and luxurious, warm and crisp." Light colors open up the room, and a tone-on-tone vertical-stripe wallpaper makes it appear taller. A custom-painted plaster border of laurel wreaths and acanthus leaves also draws the eye up, while adding femininity. But that delicate touch pales in comparison to the bed's dust skirt-a crinoline-supported concoction with the fullness and flounce of a ballerina's tutu. Susan designed a quilted headboard flanked with finials to "make the bed important and luxurious." Silk and chenille pillows, a chocolate cashmere blanket, and an ever-changing array of matelassé and piqué coverlets and linens create deep comfort-a feeling that permeates all of this vintage house, freshly plumed after an overdue molting.
Susan transformed the back lawn from old decking to a stone-paved courtyard complete with a love knot planted in dwarf mondo grass.
Photography: Gordon Beall
Produced by Lisa Mowry


text:
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Don't have time to leave your couch and travel the world? Now you don't have to.
Google unveiled a new feature Thursday that will enable its users to virtually travel to 132 historic sites across 18 countries.
The World Wonders project uses the same technology that powers Google's controversial Street View service.
The Mountain View-based search company used "camera-carrying trikes" to photograph many of the sites featured in the project.
Virtual travelers can now Yosemite National Park, Australia's Shark Bay, Pompeii or the Kyoto temples.


text: More than one person's mentioned there must be something in the water in Paris given the demise of two high profile designers in one season, but there's something else spreading, too—a love of tight black jumpsuits for evening. They may be tough to pull off unless you're, say, Gwyneth Paltrow. But if you do in fact possess that Tracy Anderson and GOOPed trained body you'll have plenty of options to choose from. Our favorite comes with polka dots and a peplum from Stella McCartney, but Nicola Formichetti whipped one up at Mugler and Balmain`s, well, it's not for the faint of heart.


text: Once a week? Once a year? Or every single time? I've played a lot of guitars over the years, only owned a few. But every time I play my '03 McCarty at some point I a get this feeling that washes over me. A feeling that this guitar was MADE specifically for me. The scale length, the knob layout, the fit and finish, just perfect. She always feels alive in my hands. Does anyone else have a special PRS like that? One that has that indescribable IT and you keep falling in love over and over?


text:
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Create and modify 3D text geometry.
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Bulk reset of group and component's axes.
A tool to create Bézier curves.


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BIRMINGHAM, Ala. – The VCU Men's Soccer team suffered a 2-1 overtime defeat at the hands of host UAB at the Soccer for a Cure Tournament.
UAB's Reed Matte finished the contest with an unassisted tally in 95th minute of play. Matte drove past his defender, before directing his shot into the low right corner of the VCU goal.
"First off, credit to UAB for scoring two goals and getting the result," said VCU Head Coach Dave Giffard. "Tonight's game was a tough one in many respects. UAB is very big, athletic and direct in a lot of roles. We needed to be very sharp on the ball and keep possession better than we did to try and limit their opportunities to put balls in dangerous spots; unfortunately I don't think we were quite as sharp on either side of the ball as we could have been and if you give a team like that too many chances, they are going to punch you in the nose, which they did."
With tonight's loss, the Rams fall to 5-2 overall, while UAB improves to 4-0-2. For the second straight game, the Rams jumped out to a 1-0 lead with a goal in the first half of play, only to see the home team respond with goals in the second half and overtime.
VCU freshman defender Juan Monge Solano tallied the game's first goal in the 34th minute of play following a foul on UAB. The San Jose, Costa Rica, native served in a cross from 45-yards out, which held up in the air and drifted towards the goal before slipping through the goalkeeper's hands and into the net. It marked the third goal of the season for the defender.
The VCU defense held tough in the first frame, as senior goalkeeper Josh Pantazelos staved off three shots.
At the end of 45 minutes of play, VCU held a slight 5-4 shots advantage, while the Blazers earned five corner kicks compared to four for the Rams.
UAB knotted the game up at 1-1 in the 53rd minute, with Miaden Lemez recording his first goal of the season. Lemez served in a free kick from just outside the 18-yard box, which Pantazelos was able to get a hand on, but not enough to keep the ball from crossing the goal line.
Following 90 minutes of action, with the two teams tied 1-1, the game headed to overtime.
The Blazers had a dangerous chance in the 91st minute, with Lemez creating a dangerous chance, when his shot caromed off the crossbar.
UAB was able to seal the victory just four minutes later with the game-winner from Matte.
UAB finished the match with a 12-8 shots advantage, while the Rams held a 10-6 corner kicks advantage. Pantazelos posted four saves for VCU in the match, while Carl Woszczynski collected five saves for UAB.
"I feel four our guys for giving all they did to the game and not getting the result, but the game is honest and if all the details aren't quite right, you are going to pay the price," added Giffard. "Now we have to turn our attention to a very good Gardner-Webb team on Sunday afternoon."
VCU and Gardner-Webb are slated to meet this Sunday at 1 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. The Bulldogs defeated Wisconsin-Milwaukee, 2-1, in the first game of the Soccer for a Cure Tournament.


text: Anyone excited for this game? I tend to get excited about new MMOs since I am looking for something good enough (end game) to take me away from WoW, which I always seem to quit and then come back to for a handful of months after a new expack comes out. Of course, it is being made by BioWare, the makers of the best star wars games, IMO. I have faith they can pull off something spectacular. Anyhow, the game looks promising. They seem to not be going crazy with graphics, which should be promising to get people with all sorts of budgets playing. One of the biggest plagues of modern MMOs is needing a $1000 rig to play the game smoothly. There are simply too few people willing to invest in a great gaming machine. I'd rather the graphics suffer a little than have a dead community. For those that haven't checked it out, here's a link!


text:
The Joy Luck Club
From Wiki
Article in Adult Fiction and Big Read categories.
About the Author
Other works by Amy Tan
- The Bonesetter's Daughter
- The Hundred Secret Senses
- The Kitchen's God's Wife
- Saving Fish from Drowning
For Children:
- The Chinese Siamese Cat (adapted into the television series Sagwa, The Chinese Siamese Cat)
Novels featuring Chinese Culture and History
- The Red Chamber by Pauline Chen - An epic reimagining of the Chinese classic "Dream of the Red Chamber" is set against a backdrop of eighteenth-century Beijing and follows the intersecting lives of three women, including orphaned Daiyu, who becomes tangled in a web of intrigue with ties to the Emperor's Palace.
First-Generation and Immigrant Stories
- The Woman Warrior: Memoirs of a Girhood Among Ghosts by Maxine Hong Kingston.
Novels featuring Mothers and Daughters
- The Language of Flowers by Vanessa Diffenbaugh
- Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood by Rebecca Wells
Nonfiction featuring Chinese Culture and History
- Wild Swans: Three Daughters of China by Jung Chang - The story of three generations in twentieth-century China, describing the life of the author's grandmother, a warlord's concubine; her mother, a member of the Communist elite, and the family's experiences during the Cultural Revolution.
San Francisco
Feature Films
For Children
- In the Year of the Boar and Jackie Robinson by Bette Bao Lord.
External Links
- The NEA's Big Read website has a Reader's Guide and more information about the book and the author.
- The Chinese in California: San Francisco's Chinatown An introduction to San Francisco's Chinatown on the Library of Congress website


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CrossRoads RV has announced the appointment of Tim Dennig as regional sales manager for the SlingShot product brand.
Dennig joins the CrossRoads RV team as a 15-year veteran of the industry and has been instrumental in defining the lightweight market as well as developing and selling many of the lightweight travel trailers currently built by today's manufacturers, according to a news release from Topeka, Ind.-based CrossRoads.
Dennig led a team to place the first lightweight trailer as No. 1 overall in retail sales for the entire industry.
"Other lightweight products defined the lightweight market, but with amazingly low dry weights, I believe the SlingShot will not only redefine the lightweight market, but it will tap into a whole new market in the lightweight segment," Dennig said.
"Tim is a welcome addition to the CrossRoads RV team, and his expertise in lightweight products makes him a valuable asset," said Rudy Boals, product manager and national sales manager for the SlingShot line. "The SlingShot has been improved with enhancements to the interior design and floorplans without adding weight and extra cost. We look forward to Tim and the SlingShot having great success here at CrossRoads RV."


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The beauty ideal is socially constructed and changes over time.
In 1912, Miss Elsie Scheel of Brooklyn, New York, was deemed the "most nearly perfect specimen of womanhood" among Cornell's four hundred coeds. Scheel was twenty-four years old, stood five feet seven inches tall, weighed in at a healthy 171 pounds (her favorite food was beefsteak), and possessed a decidedly pear-shaped figure (it measured 35-30-40). Nevertheless, Cornell's medical examiner […] judged her "the perfect girl," having "not a single defect" in her physical makeup.
–Lynn Peril, College Girls: Bluestockings, Sex Kittens, and Coeds, Then and Now, p. 256*
Miss Elsie Scheel's BMI would have been 26.8, placing her squarely in today's dreaded "overweight" category. At Banana Republic, to pick a random contemporary store, she would wear a size 8 top, a 12/14 bottom, and probably a 12 dress with the bust taken in. And she was the "most nearly perfect specimen of womanhood" among 400 young, mostly white women in 1912.
Peril writes that the NYT was citing fashion experts in 1923 — just 12 years later, but in the post-WWI flapper era — who said a 5'7″ inch woman (presumably also white) should weigh 110 pounds and measure 34-22-34. (Also, "The ankle should measure 8 inches" [p. 256]). The NYT did not consult the student body or the medical examiner of Cornell, current or emeritus; one wonders what this group would have made of a 60-pound reduction in specimens of "perfect womanhood."
*This book merits the Sweet Machine Seal of Snarky Feminist Approval


text:
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- July 4, 2020
7:00 p.m. to 11:00 p.m.
Join us to celebrate Independence Day on Saturday, July 4th. There is no better place to be than Crane Lake! Our world famous parade is always on the 4th - it starts at 7:00 p.m. and goes down the main street of Crane Lake (Gold Coast Road). Come at 6:30 for line up and if you want a good spot! All are invited to join in the fun and enter the parade. It starts at Voyagaire Lodge and turns around after the bridge
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Crane Lake Visitors & Tourism Bureau
7511 Gold Coast Road
Crane Lake, MN 55725
Call: (218) 993-2901
Toll Free: (800) 362-7405
Voyageur's National Park is accessible mainly by motorized watercraft with no horsepower restrictions. The Quetico Park and the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness is accessible by canoe. So the Crane Lake area has something for all who love the outdoors. While headquartered at one of the areas modern resorts or RV sites, exploring the lakes in a comfortable houseboat or paddling your canoe rented from one of our outfitters and tenting in a remote lake you will discover the grandeur of this historic area that the Voyageurs once traversed. Bring your camera. Mother Nature shows her majesty in many ways in the Crane Lake area. Miles of waterways, forests and rocks all beg to be explored. Birds and wildlife can be viewed with a little patience. Songbirds and waterfowl arrive in the spring to nest or migrate further north. Loon and eagle sightings are prevalent. It is common to see deer at any time of the year along with black bear and moose. In their season berries can be picked and eaten. Fishing is still a major activity. Walleye, northern pike, small and large mouth bass, black crappie, lake trout, lake sturgeon and pan fish are caught in these waters.Winter guests explore Voyageur Country over hundreds of miles of groomed snowmobile trails. It is a unique experience to travel over the frozen lakes or go through the woods covered with a blanket of snow. Our well-marked trails are connected to Minnesota's thousands of miles of groomed trails. A variety of accommodations are available in the winter from housekeeping units to lodge rooms. Excellent restaurants are open to serve you.


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State wants city oversight on Omaha bar scene
Liquor Control Commission wants a crackdown on party promoters
The Nebraska Liquor Control Commission is getting involved in the Omaha bar scene by asking the city to crackdown on party promoters.
Bob Batt with the Liquor Control Commission said he wants to curb violence in and around Omaha bars and said the common thread to the ones where fights break out is that the bar has hired a party promoter who promises big business at any cost.
"Over the last two years, we've identified that the promoters going to these bars take them over for a night, and unfortunately we have some very tragic outcomes," Batt said.
A man died after a shooting outside Halo Ultra Lounge last September, and there was a fight inside Club X on New Year's Eve.
That is why the commission sent a letter to the Omaha City Council asking them to make promoters apply for license, just like bars do.
District 6 Councilman Franklin Thompson said requiring promoters to go before the City Council would give the city and the venue owners more control.
"The bars are taking a little bit too much of the blame because the promoters are lying upfront saying, 'It's only going to be 500 people', and it's really 2,000," Thompson said.
Ron Jones, who runs a party-planning business, said the problem is not the promoters.
"Whenever you're dealing with a large amount of people, then anything can happen," he said.
Jones said forcing promoters to get a license would be bad for the entertainment business.
"If promoters aren't allowed to promote, then bars and establishments, they don't flourish like they used to," Jones said.
Batt said the city can avoid violent scenes by holding promoters accountable through insurance, trained security and city oversight.
"We don't want to have one more person hurt, and we have the opportunity to fix this," Batt said.
The city would not say the names of the so-called problem promoters but said there are several operating in the metro. The Liquor Control Commission plans to bring up the issue at next week's City Council meeting.
Club X said the bar does not sure promoters and Halo Ultra Lounge did not return KETV's calls to comment.


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