text:
Sunday, February 26, 2006
Tough as Nails or Merely 'Bobaganda'?
Tough as Nails!
That's the headline on the cover of the new Business Week, over a photograph of a crew-cut, orange-apron-wearing Home Depot employee, crisply saluting with his right hand while his left holds a shovel, rifle-style.
"Skip the touchy-feely stuff," the text informs us: "The Big Box retailer is thriving under CEO Bob Nardelli's military-style rule."
But what looks on the cover to be a glowing review of GE veteran Nardelli's military-infused makeover of one of the most successful companies in American retailing history offers a cautionary tale about the downside to managing-by-numbers when it comes to the "touchy-feely" world of retail.
"Nardelli," the article begins by telling us, "loves to hire soldiers." And it's not kidding: almost half the 1,100 store leadership trainees hired since 2002 have been "junior military officers." One Home Depot manager actually describes Nardelli as "the general."
Now, my nephew is a soldier. He just came back from Iraq. And I'd love to see him get into a training program like Home Depot's when the time comes for him to transition to civilian life.
But if you're wondering whether a military-style organization is the best way to run a home improvement retailer, the Business Week article will not entirely answer your question.
After starting out with the usual hoopla and glowing factoids of the Nardelli-inspired revival at the world's largest home center, the article describes the Nardelli culture as paralyzed with fear; quotes an ex-manager who calls the company "a factory"; and reports that "Home Despot" is the nickname given by some insiders. My favorite, "Bobaganda," is what others call the television programming in the break rooms owing to "its constant drone of tips, warnings, and executive messages."
Me, I have no insider's knowledge of whether such "Bobaganda" is in fact helping the company "thrive." But I know at least one customer who's seen the short-run impact of Nardelli's "military-style rule" at the store level.
A friend called recently about a weird experience at the local Home Depot: he was looking for carpet, but when the sales lady pulled out those big rolling carpet-holders, there wasn't much carpet on them.
"I'm sorry," she told him. "We've been running low." She blamed it on problems "with the trucking company," and said new carpet inventory would be on its way.
I told my friend that knowing the problems truckers have been having holding onto drivers in this tight labor market, maybe that was in fact the problem—but just to make sure called a friend who used to run a Home Depot store and is now at a competitor.
Even before I finished telling the story, he began to laugh. "It's not the trucks. It's some bean-counter at corporate," he said. The way he'd heard it, Home Depot's fiscal year was coming up, and corporate had cut back store-level inventory—he supposed to show Wall Street's Finest how well the company was managing inventory.
"There's only one problem with that," he said with deep irony. "You run out of what you sell."
Interestingly, just last week Home Depot reported its fiscal year end, and Wall Street's Finest did indeed take note of the company's crisp inventory management. As Morgan Stanley wrote:
"Inventory levels…grew slower than sales…. We note that inventory growing slower than sales is consistent with comments from suppliers who cited strong sell-through but slower sell-in particularly towards the end of the quarter [emphasis added]."
Now, I've walked Home Depot stores with its founders, Bernie Marcus and Art Blank. It was their baby: they lived and breathed Home Depot. Bernie especially wore his heart on his sleeve—he'd get choked up just talking about how a particular employee had gone out of his way to help a customer install a sink.
And to their credit, both founders knew the business had outgrown the highly decentralized way they had managed the business—hence, the GE-trained, Six-Sigma promoting Nardelli.
But retail is not just about computer-generated numbers. Home Depot stores sell GE light-bulbs—they don't manufacture those light-bulbs…and if a nearby Lowes does at least as good a job selling the same light-bulbs, not to mention carpets, then the Home Depot customer has a choice.
How that customer chooses in the future will determine the success or failure of "Bobaganda," not whether the CEO and the soldiers carrying out their marching orders are "tough as nails."
Jeff Matthews
I Am Not Making This Up
© 2005 Jeff Matthews
The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Matthews. Mr. Matthews also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Matthews' recommendations.
Posted by Jeff Matthews at 11:24 AM 15 comments:
Wednesday, February 22, 2006
How to "Beat the Quarter"
Ms. Rieker, who joined Enron in 1990, clarified testimony from Mr. Koenig that as far back as January 2000, Mr. Skilling had directed last-minute changes to earnings results to put them in line with analysts' expectations.—New York Times
Thanks to Paula Rieker, the former board secretary of the former Wall Street Favorite known as Enron, the world now knows how certain large, complex, multinational companies manage to "beat the number" by a penny or two, quarter after quarter after quarter, until they don't.
When the consensus expectation of analysts suddenly rose by 1 cent a share, to 31 cents, she said she "panicked." But a day later, when she was told that Enron would report 31 cents a share, Mr. Koenig explained that Mr. Skilling and the chief accounting officer, Richard A. Causey, had decided that the numbers should be changed. She modified the news release that went out that day.
Anybody who has ever worked at a real company—as opposed to the bright bean-counters who move straight from grad school into the ranks of Wall Street's Finest—knows that companies are inherently messy affairs, what with people to manage and budgets to meet and judgment calls to make and accounting rules to bend...not to mention currency swings and interest rate movements and hurricanes, droughts, wars and government policy changes.
But to Wall Street's Finest, who view nearly everything through the prism of a quarterly earnings-per-share number that is almost as meaningless as the paper on which it is printed, the messiness vanishes, its place taken by a "Number" that becomes the all-encompassing target, almost regardless of how that "Number" is reached or exceeded.
Take Dell, for example: Dell "made the number" last week thanks entirely to a lower-than-expected tax rate. Wall Street's Finest, as reported here, liked "the number" but not Dell's forward guidance, which seemed light to the so-called analysts whose job it is, presumably, to divine trends before they are glaringly evident and already priced into their stocks.
Where, the readers of this blog who have experienced terrible service problems at the hands of that once-great company might ask, have those analysts been for the last year? How can they be surprised at Dell's weak revenue growth, the declining earnings growth rate, and the lack of a full year forecast?
They've been spending too much time on useless models and not enough time talking to customers, that's how.
Every investor should read carefully the account in today's New York Times of how one complex multi-national corporation "beat the number," according to Enron's Ms. Rieker in yesterday's testimony:
Then in June 2000, with Enron prepared to meet analysts' earnings expectations of 32 cents a share, Ms. Rieker recalled that Mr. Koenig came into her office and said he had "just come back from a meeting with Skilling where he had said he wanted to beat earnings by 2 or 3 cents."
Four days later, Enron reported 34 cents a share. Analysts were never told about the sudden change.
The next time a company "beats the quarter" by a penny or two, think about how Enron used to "beat the number."
And ignore the analysts who actually care about it.
Jeff Matthews
I Am Not Making This Up
© 2005 Jeff Matthews
The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Matthews. Mr. Matthews also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Matthews' recommendations.
Posted by Jeff Matthews at 8:00 AM 17 comments:
Tuesday, February 21, 2006
The Professor Versus the Real World
Disney Shopping, a $160 million a year direct-to-consumer purveyor of Disney merchandise, announced a change in its business model that to anybody on Wall Street—and to consumers under the age of 30—should come as no surprise: it is eliminating its paper catalogue.
According to an interesting article in this weekend's New York Times, "Disney spent $18 million to mail 30 million catalogs last year," with half the catalogs going out in the fourth quarter holiday season.
The result was a whopping 45% decline in peak season telephone orders.
Now, you might expect that a 45% decline in telephone orders from a catalogue mailing would lead to a fairly big decline in overall sales for the Disney Shopping business, but thanks to the overwhelming proportion of internet-based orders, sales actually increased 5% for the year.
You don't have to be a math whiz to figure out the general direction of the variables in the equation embedded in this discussion: catalogue-based sales down, internet-based sales up.
Why, you might wonder, would anyone spend $18 million to contact consumers using a labor and resource-intensive method when the response to that method was a collapse in customer response at a near-50% annual rate?The answer is you wouldn't—unless of course you happen to be a college professor.
While the folks at Disney have taken the highly logical step of paying attention to the data and putting an end to the $18 million catalogue operation, Donna Hoffman, a professor of marketing at Vanderbilt University, told the Times the move was "really short-sighted" and said the company ought to reconsider.
As if the trend is a momentary blip.
Ms. Hoffman, to her credit, provides a statistic to back up her point of view: the purported fact that consumers who use a retailers' store, catalogue and web site spend 15% more at that retailer than customers who use only one shopping method. "Disney's just leaving all of that on the table," she told the Times.
But what, precisely, does "all that" amount to here?
Let's assume Professor Hoffman is correct, and Disney is realizing a 15% sales lift from the shrinking base of customers who shop in Disney Stores, order online and peruse those catalogues—say, one quarter of the $160 million total Disney Shopping sales.
So perhaps $40 million out of those sales were boosted by Professor Hoffman's 15% synergy number—implying Disney generated an extra $4 million of sales thanks to the catalogue mailings.
Now let's try to figure out what it cost to get that extra $4 million in sales.
Without detailed access to Disney's books we'll have to guess, but there's an interesting data point inside the article: 80%—or roughly $130 million—of Disney Shopping's $160 million sales came from online customers.
Which means only about $30 million came from the telephone-based catalogue customers.
Assuming a 50% gross mark-up on $30 million of merchandise sales (a generous assumption), Disney Shopping's catalogue might have generated $15 million in gross profits.
$15 million in gross profits which does not even cover $18 million in catalogue mailing costs.
Then there's the call centers where operators take down the information and transform a customer order into a sale (Disney has closed one call center already), and Disney's catalogue operations are clearly bleeding cash—I'd guess $5 to $10 million last year.
All for the sake of Professor Hoffman's theoretical $4 million in extra sales lift Disney might experience by mailing 30 million catalogues straight to 30 million recycle bins around the United States.
Which is why the Disney Shopping VP told the Times there is no way Disney would ever revive the catalogue business, despite Professor Hoffman's concern that Disney might eventually "decide it was a mistake."
I give the Professor credit for taking a contrarian point of view. But when it comes to The Professor versus the Real World, my money's on the Real World.
Jeff Matthews
I Am Not Making This Up
© 2005 Jeff Matthews
The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Matthews. Mr. Matthews also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Matthews' recommendations.
Posted by Jeff Matthews at 6:57 AM 12 comments:
Friday, February 17, 2006
"I'm Struggling to Understand…"
When one of Wall Street's Finest begins a question on a conference call by saying "I'm struggling to understand…" you know there's trouble brewing.
Wall Street analysts hate to express anything but goodwill towards the companies they follow—the better to retain access to the management of those companies. Especially those companies which generate banking fees.
Which is to say, of course, every public company in America.
Thus, when one of Dell's biggest boosters began a question on last night's Dell call that way, you knew it was going to be a long, ugly evening. And it was.
Among the questions asked by the disappointed analysts were the following:
"I'm struggling to understand why gross margins deteriorated so significantly, both sequentially and year-over-year…"
"Do you still feel the [direct] model has advantages [over HP]?"
"Should we assume that the new, lower operating margins are really part of a process of resetting the bar?"
"Why are the new lower margins not driving higher revenue...?"
"How would you assess your own execution this quarter?"
"When should we see the consumer business basically bottom out?"
"I'm a little bit puzzled by the effects of the 14th week [in the quarter]…"
"Is it fair to say that HP is making it a lot more difficult for you guys to grow on the printer side, and is it a really big disappointment for you?"
I must admit that, personally speaking, I'm struggling to understand why Wall Street's Finest expected so much more than Dell delivered last night.
For one thing, Mark Hurd has clearly stopped the hemorrhaging at HP, which used to be the SPECTRE to Dell's James Bond—grand plans of World Domination that always ended in failure, big explosions, and Bond getting the girl.
For another thing, Dell's service problems appear to be so widespread that my own bad experience (see "Dell Screws Up a Good Thing") is a pretty good reflection of the decline in Dell's brand name.
Here's how Dell CEO Kevin Rollins wrapped up the call last night:
"Our focus is going to be, as we mentioned at the outset, continuing to work on our customer experience…"
My advice—not that anybody at Dell is asking—is this: less time on conference calls with Wall Street's Finest, more time on customer calls.
Jeff Matthews
I Am Not Making This Up
© 2005 Jeff Matthews
The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Matthews. Mr. Matthews also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Matthews' recommendations.
Posted by Jeff Matthews at 9:10 AM 16 comments:
Thursday, February 16, 2006
This 'Low Inflation' is Starting to Bite!
Inflation pressures increased in 2005….
Nevertheless, the increase in prices for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy, at just below 2 percent, remained moderate, and longer-term inflation expectations appear to have been contained.
—2/16/06 Bernanke testimony.
Shortly after the new Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke presented the above testimony to the Eco-1 dropouts in Congress, a far more relevant sort of testimony was presented to Wall Street's Finest by a publicly traded company which, unlike the folks at the Fed, consumes food and energy and all kinds of materials that do not seem to appear in the government inflation statistics.
The company was Guitar Center, a large musical instrument retailer whose stores carry pretty much anything a musician could want to play—with high end guitars lining the walls and drums crowding the floors.
The stores are staffed with actual musicians, which is good except that these musical junkies tend to prefer playing their chosen instrument on the sales floor, which they do as much as possible, to actually ringing up a sale. So the stores can be a little intimidating to a novice, what with all the Hendrix-type guitar solos wailing in the background.
Whether the stock itself has merits is a different discussion, but, being a hack drummer myself, I can say that it is almost impossible to leave a Guitar Center without either buying something or craving an expensive new piece of equipment.
In any event, the company's inflation 'testimony' came during yesterday's fourth-quarter earnings call after the market close, when management discussed the real-world pressures many retailers are now seeing as a result of the higher costs of not only energy but building materials, labor and money itself.
According to Bruce Ross, the CFO:
In terms of the cost of building out the [Guitar Center] stores, we have seen a roughly 20% increase of [building out] a large format store…and roughly a 10 to 12% increase in the costs on the [smaller store] format.
So take Bernanke at his word: that inflation is well-contained. After all, Guitar Center is not raising prices on, say, Gibson Les Paul Classic guitars or Pearl MMX Masters drum kits by 20%.
Still, when costs go up 20%, somebody, somewhere, eats the cost. Somebody like Guitar Center.
Jeff Matthews
I Am Not Making This Up
© 2005 Jeff Matthews
The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Matthews. Mr. Matthews also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Matthews' recommendations.
Posted by Jeff Matthews at 8:57 AM 19 comments:
Tuesday, February 14, 2006
That Was Then…
"Our results to date in fiscal year 2006 reflect these broader market trends. In the first two months of the year, we experienced and increase in home order cancellations and a decline in net orders for new homes when compared to the same period last year."—KB Homes 10K
One of the big headlines in today's Wall Street Journal is that KB Homes is seeing a surge in order cancellations amidst a cooling real estate market.
Now, it's only fair to point out that statement was made in a 10K filed on February 10th so this is not exactly breaking news.
But the change in direction is notable, particularly in comparison with KB's optimistic outlook a mere 60 days ago.
Back in its December earnings call, KB Home's management told Wall Street's Finest all was well in the housing bubble.
"Housing demand remains solid in the vast majority of our markets," CEO Bruce Karatz said on the call, despite a moderation in the overall housing market which he characterized "as expected."
Asked for specifics, the KBH COO said the company was "still seeing incremental small [price] increases in both" Phoenix and Las Vegas. "We are not seeing a lot of buildup in the resale inventories."
When asked if "there are any markets that you guys are maybe seeing very different slow conditions today versus what you were seeing maybe a few months ago…?" the company's COO said this:
"No. As a matter of fact I would say—I mean you are comparing it to a few months ago. I would say generally improving conditions in the weaker markets."
That was then. This is now.
Jeff Matthews
I Am Not Making This Up
© 2005 Jeff Matthews
The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Matthews. Mr. Matthews also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Matthews' recommendations.
Posted by Jeff Matthews at 8:53 AM 13 comments:
Friday, February 10, 2006
Google: "Thesis Schmesis"
Far and away the most interesting—and meaningful—conference call I've listened to the last couple of weeks was the Blue Nile on Tuesday night.
Blue Nile is what investors like to call "a nice little company"—with good sales growth, healthy margins, actual earnings, and real free cash flow.
Blue Nile also happens to be an internet retailer (of jewelry), and it learned about real free cash flow the hard way, having started up during the internet bubble and survived the internet crash thanks to the extreme diligence and sharp focus of its founder, Mark Vadon.
Unlike, say, Overstock.com, whose CEO went out and bought $7 million worth of diamonds and cobbled together a clunky "Design Your Own Jewelry" site to attempt to sell the stuff, Blue Nile operates as a virtual jewelry store with a terrific, user-friendly site and a well-developed supply chain.
Gross margins are half the brick-and-mortar model—but because Blue Nile carries almost no finished inventory and gets paid via credit card before whatever it sells (usually an engagement ring) is assembled and shipped, it generates good margins and real free cash flow that piles up on the balance sheet and goes into share buybacks when the stock gets beat up, as it occasionally does when the company misses quarters, which it occasionally does.
As it did this week.
Being an Internet pioneer that survived the bust, Blue Nile has also witnessed the rise of the Google/Overture keyword advertising model, whereby advertisers buy "keywords" and then pay Google or Overture (now Yahoo!) every time a user "clicks-through" the ad that pops up during a search of those keywords.
And ever since Google came public, Blue Nile has been answering questions about click fraud, cost-per-click and Microsoft's intentions in the space, always reaffirming the value of keyword advertising to Blue Nile's business model.
Just last November, Vadon told analysts the following:
And what we really have to do is not go out and run television commercials like an Overstock.com, but what we need to do is stay focused on delivering a great experience and let the market mature and let people grow comfortable with the Internet. If we do that, I think you'll see us continue to grow at the rates we're growing now for at least five more years.
But that was then, and this is now. Blue Nile missed its fourth quarter revenues and earnings by a wide mark, in large part owing to higher search-related marketing expenses. Specifically, Vadon said the following:
During December, we saw extremely aggressive increases in the cost of online advertising. Our cost per click on Google, for example, rose by over 50% from a year earlier. While the cost of online marketing grew significantly in Q4, we remain disciplined in our spending, in order to maintain profitability on new customers rather than to chase unprofitable growth, as some of our competitors have done.
If this sounds familiar, it should be. In "The Most Interesting Press Release You Didn't Read" I highlighted comments from FTD Group in late December, which said essentially the same thing.
When asked for specifics, Vadon discussed "irrational behavior" in Google search pricing:
To give you perspective, in our top five keywords, our cost per click was up over 80% compared to a year ago. To us, it looks like, frankly, some irrational behavior in the marketplace. I think, if you follow our business, you know that we monetize Internet traffic for jewelry better than anybody in the world, and if we are getting nervous about the pricing of search, it means there's some people out there who are deficit spending and perhaps are back to the mentality of 1999….
As far as who is out there bidding, it's slightly different in Q4 as opposed to Q1. I think in Q4 -- you asked about Amazon. We haven't seen them at all in the online search market. We saw a couple larger players; I think Zales was pretty aggressive, Macy's was pretty aggressive. And then we see just a tremendous number of small players, and these are very small companies. And they don't play for very long. They will come into search for a week or a couple weeks. And I think there's just a lot of -- and then I think they burn through their budget fairly quickly and fall off the screen. But we just saw a lot of those types of players coming out.
The problem is not limited to the cost of keywords themselves: it extends to the diluted quality of the internet users clicking through to the Blue Nile web site, following Google's move last summer to place more paid ads per search:
So an important matter is how well you can convert. Over time from search, we see slight declines, and it's not tremendous but slight declines in the conversion rate. I think, to some extent, that has to do with the search engines placing more ads. So, when you went to a search term a year ago versus going to it today, you are going to see more paid search placements today than you did a year ago.
Furthermore, as more companies advertise on search engines, the value of the incremental customer is dropping:And as there's more people there competing for the same traffic, if one consumer is shopping -- so if you're shopping for a plasma TV, you are probably going to go to many merchants, or at least a handful of merchants, before you make your purchase. And so you will be clicking on multiple ones of those, but only buying one plasma screen. And the more paid placements there are, probably the more click-throughs you're going to have.So what that results in for merchants is downward pressure on the value of those customers
Having always thought highly of the Blue Nile CEO and his company's business model, I'd say something has changed, quickly and significantly—in ways not discussed on Google's own quarterly earnings call last week.
This is most apparent in the fact that Blue Nile, which has almost exclusively marketed online, is, like FTD Group, considering a shift away from online search:
Given these results, we will be looking to broaden our marketing efforts beyond search in the future. As we seek alternative marketing vehicles to complement our efforts in paid search, I would expect growth to be relatively conservative as we ramp our efforts toward broadening our marketing outreach. This is the right long-term solution for our business. As I've stated before, throughout all of our marketing efforts, our focus is on the maximization of gross profit contribution, in keeping with our overarching objective of free cash flow generation….
So what that results in for merchants is downward pressure on the value of those customers. So just as bidding is going up, you're seeing downward pressure in conversion. Again, this points to our desire in the channel to be less aggressive with our bidding. And if that means giving up some volume to other people who perhaps are not measuring that and doing that ROI calculation, as well, we will do that until it rationalizes somewhat.
I'll be the first to say I didn't expect to hear comments like these for another year or two. Just two weeks ago ("Google: 'Our Thesis is Still Intact'") I reported that various sources within the corporate Google-using community, with one exception, saw no FTD Group-style slow-down in their marketing spend on paid search.
But with Blue Nile easing off the Google search pedal, it looks like the internet search market is indeed rationalizing—not because of Microsoft and not because of click fraud, but because of good old-fashioned free markets.
And it's happening now, in Internet Time.
Jeff Matthews
I Am Not Making This Up
© 2005 Jeff Matthews
The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Matthews. Mr. Matthews also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Matthews' recommendations.
Posted by Jeff Matthews at 8:56 AM 17 comments:
Wednesday, February 08, 2006
A Quarter-Trillion Buyout? Imagine the Fees!
No doubt the PowerPoint slides are being reviewed, critiqued, and reworked at the Pfizer corporate office in preparation for Friday's Big Analyst Meeting.
Pfizer, hailed Company of the Year by Forbes Magazine in its January 11, 1999 issue, has lately fallen on very hard times—both business-wise and stock price-wise, and analysts, widows, orphans and brokers are eagerly looking for guidance at tomorrow's first post-collapse presentation to Wall Street's Finest.
Is it any coincidence that Pfizer's stock peaked at $50.04 on April 16, 1999—just three months after the Forbes Cover Story?
Everybody on Wall Street has either experienced first-hand or knows examples of the "Cover Story Curse"—the tendency of major publications to recognize a major trend, fad, or corporate success precisely as that trend, fad, or corporate success has bred the seeds of its own destruction—and Pfizer is Exhibit A of the Cover Story Curse.
[As readers might recall (see "The Last, Best Hope for Prosperity" on June 12), Time Magazine provided the most recent "Cover Story Curse" last summer, when its "Home Sweet Home" cover story ("Why we're going gaga over real estate") preceded the top in the house-buying mania by maybe three months.]
And so it was that Pfizer-the Great slowly lost its way, until earlier this year anxious callers to "Mad Money" asked Cramer for advice on their holdings in what had once been regarded as the bluest of blue-chip stocks.
"I am giving you permission to sell Pfizer!" Cramer would scream, slamming the "Sell-Sell-Sell" button and no doubt contributing to the wash-out bottom in the stock, shortly before welcome litigation news and a huge dividend boost sent the stock up, and altered the mood among Pfizer investors from feeling we're-all-doomed to the more hopeful it's-not-dead-yet.
And now the Wall Street Journal reports that Pfizer may be preparing to sell the old Warner-Lambert consumer franchise, comprised of Listerine, Visine and other stalwarts that have lately been knocking the cover off the ball in comparison to the drug business.
Numbers being tossed around are as high as $11 billion, and interest is said to be high.
But why stop there? Why stop at selling off $4 billion or so worth of Pfizer's $50 billion in sales? Why not sell the whole thing? And I don't mean a merger with, say, P&G or some Big European Drug company.
I mean a good old fashioned leveraged buyout.
The idea is probably as farfetched as it sounds, and the probability is next to nil. I would never buy the stock on the assumption that some private equity group could round up the quarter-trillion or so that it would cost to leverage-up the company.
Also, Pfizer guys are corporate guys—they like the company, they like the lifestyle to which it has accustomed them, and they have probably become too accustomed to being the buyer to ever think about being the seller, despite the fact that they have granted themselves something like a half a billion shares worth of stock options.
And they are probably not the most entrepreneurial management in America.
I say that because I once sat on the train to New York next to a Pfizer executive. He spent the entire train ride—more than an hour—working on his laptop computer moving boxes around on an organizational chart.
I am not making that up.
But a leveraged buyout of the ex-Company of the Year is worth thinking about, if for nothing else than trying to understand the valuation currently accorded to Pfizer on the market.
The math is really pretty simple:
1. Pfizer had EBYYY—"Earnings Before Yadda-Yadda-Yadda"—of around $22 billion last year. (In serious terms, EBYYY is what Wall Street calls "EBITDA"—earnings before non-cash charges, such as depreciation, and capital-related charges, such as interest and taxes.)
2. Pfizer has no debt, net of cash. In fact, Pfizer has a lot of cash, thanks to the repatriation of $30+ billion from overseas entities as part of the so-called "Jobs Act."
So let's pretend a leveraged buyout group paid $32 a share for PFE—just pretend. Call it 7.4 billion shares outstanding, and that would cost the buyers $237 billion.
Now, pretend the buyers put up $37 billion of their own equity and borrow the remaining $200 billion, upon which they might theoretically pay, what, 9% interest—about $18 billion annual interest expense?
(Hey, Russian Federation bonds yield roughly 6%—and which credit would you rather own, a country run by an ex-KGB agent or a company whose business is keeping aging Baby-Boomers alive?)
So, under these assumptions, Pfizer's EBYYY of roughly $22 billion would cover the $18 billion annual interest tab, with $3 billion available for capital expenditures (which amounted to something under $2.5 billion last year) or dividends to the new owners.
Furthermore, the new owners—being rapacious high-leverage types—could immediately set about selling off assets (the Listerine franchise, for example) to the highest bidders, in order to reduce debt or, more likely, pay themselves fat dividends and the kind of "advisory" fees that LBO groups grant themselves once they control the piggy bank.
Far-fetched? Yes.
But here's the most compelling part: figure that the average LBO generates legal, banking and advisory fees of up to 5% of the value of the deal.
5% of $237 billion is $11.9 billion—$11.9 billion of fees for Wall Street's lawyers and bankers and analysts!
Dream away! But don't expect an announcement tomorrow.
Jeff Matthews
I Am, In This Case, Making It Up
© 2005 Jeff Matthews
The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Matthews. Mr. Matthews also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Matthews' recommendations.
Posted by Jeff Matthews at 9:19 AM 16 comments:
Tuesday, February 07, 2006
What if Hunter S. Thompson Ran a Country?
"We have to defend our fatherland."
Who said that recently—Hitler? Stalin? Hunter S. Thompson?
Of course not—they're all dead. So here's a hint: the man who said that also said this:
"We still need a higher number of rifles. The 100,000 Russian rifles are not enough, Veneuzuela needs to have one million well-equipped and well-armed men and women."
That's right: it was Hugo Chavez, President of Venezuela, the largest oil exporter in the Western Hemisphere.
I'm not making this up. The leader of a country in the Western Hemisphere actually said he needs a million well-armed men and women, to prepare for an invasion by the United States.
But that leader, who just as well might be Hunter S. Thompson, what with all the guns and paranoia flying around, does not lead just any country—he runs Venezuela.
And Venezuela, as I have discussed before ("Instability Adds Up") supplies 11% of the crude oil imports to which we are "addicted," as our President, who has heretofore done exactly zero to reduce that addiction, noted in his State of the Union speech recently.
Not only does Venezuela supply crude oil, but years ago that country bought Citgo, the United States-based refining and marketing company which happens to operate four refineries with about a million barrels-a-day capacity.
In other words, Venezuela produced about a gallon of the gasoline currently sloshing around in the average American's gas tank.
And Chavez has threatened to close down those refineries:
"I could easily order the closing of the refineries that we have in the United States…I could easily sell the oil that we sell to the United States to other countries in the world…"
Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, the leader of another major oil producing country—slightly less daffy and therefore more scary—is moving ahead with plans to develop nuclear weapons. Oh, and he has said, publicly, that Israel should be "wiped out."
Finally, and being perhaps the Reggie Jackson of this dangerous mix—the "straw that stirs the drink," as the Yankees ex-slugger once described himself—Muslims are burning embassies over cartoons.
Yet, in the midst of what looks to me like the most combustible mixture of political, social and religious issues since the Shah of Iran fled his palace in 1979, private equity firms are rushing to buy up U.S. companies—not at bargain-basement prices in the midst of depressed operating conditions—but at all-time record prices in the midst of all-time record operating margins.
Jon Huntsman, the cancer-surviving, charity-supporting family man from Utah whose chemical company survived a harrowing brush with bankruptcy during the last down-cycle in that notoriously cyclical business put it well in yesterday's Wall Street Journal:
"It appears to me that many of the private-equity shops are going to reach into some very marginal businesses with all the available capital," he said. "Any time you have to reach too far to put your money to work, you're going to take a higher risk."
And with the Latin American Hunter S. Thompson running Venezuela and his soon-to-be nuclear-equipped counterpart running Iran, the risks may be higher than anyone thinks.
Jeff Matthews
I Am Not Making This Up
© 2005 Jeff Matthews
The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Matthews. Mr. Matthews also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Matthews' recommendations.
Posted by Jeff Matthews at 8:37 AM 12 comments:
Monday, February 06, 2006
"Binomial Marketing Experiment" and Other Euphemisms
Okay, let's get it over with right up front: I couldn't care less about the Super Bowl. World Series, yes; Super Bowl, no.
Which is why I didn't quite believe it when one of my daughter's friends called from the college dorm where they were watching the Super Bowl to tell me Overstock.com had run an ad during the Big Game.
"Overstock?" I asked him.
"Yep," he said. "The guys in your blog."
"What kind of ad? The lady in white?
"Sexy lady. She was in bed."
Sounded like Overstock, but I still didn't quite believe that a web retailer with negative operating margins had bothered spending money on a Super Bowl ad.
That is so, as they say, 1990's.
But sure enough, in my USA Today today is a "Super Bowl Ad Meter" ranking every single ad shown last night—and there it is, described thusly: "Overstock.com: O as part of life." (Overstock's web site calls it "Red Objects.")
Unfortunately for Overstock, however, this description appears under the heading "5 least popular." In fact, the USA Today Ad Meter ranks Overstock's sexy bed-lady 56 out of all 58 ads.
(According to the paper, the "Ad Meter" comprised "207 adult volunteers in Phoenix and McLean, Va" whose reactions were "electronically charted" during the game.)
Their favorite ad came from Bud Light, and scored an 8.39. The top ten ads—six from Budweiser alone—averaged in the high 7's. The least favorite, from Gillette, scored a 4.05. The second least favorite, from Slim-Fast, scored a 4.28.
Next was Overstock's "O as part of life," at 4.91.
All of this is eerily reminiscent of last year's so-called "binomial marketing experiment," which is how the Overstock CEO described a mysterious, not-quite-defined $2.6 million expenditure that added to the 2005 first quarter's woes.
Long-time readers will recall that following the earnings report some of Wall Street's Finest dutifully wrote "$2.6 million binomial marketing experiment" in their research reports, despite the fact that not one of them appeared to understand what that actually meant. But it sure sounded cool.
While I took plenty of math in school, my own memory of binomial coefficients and how they bear on marketing expenditures is a little shaky—unless, perhaps, "binomial" comes from the Greek roots "bi" meaning "buy" and "nome" meaning "very little."
I am, of course, making that definition up. But I am not making up the cost of a Super Bowl ad, according to USA Today today:
"The evening didn't come cheaply for the winners—or losers. Each 30-second time slot cost a record $2.5 million—or $83,333 per second."
I don't know what Overstock actually spent on last night's ad. Nor can the opinions of 207 individuals be said to accurately reflect the 50 billion or however many people watched the Super Bowl. And I assume that more than a handful of individuals will, as a result of the sexy bed-lady, check out the site and pump up the numbers.
It will be interesting to hear the spin on tomorrow's conference call...but beware "binomial marketing experiment" and other euphemisms.
Jeff Matthews
I Am Not Making This Up
© 2005 Jeff Matthews
The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Matthews. Mr. Matthews also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Matthews' recommendations.
Posted by Jeff Matthews at 8:49 AM 17 comments:
Saturday, February 04, 2006
Dell Adds Insult to Injury
I got a bang-up response to a recent post about the sorry state of Dell's customer service ("Dell Screws Up a Good Thing").
Out of 28 comments directly related to Dell and the state of its customer service, readers posted 23 scathing-to-nasty first-hand opinions on Dell and five lukewarm-to-positive responses.
So, it might not just be me.
I wrote the blog because, having used only Dell desktops for the last twelve years and had nothing but good experiences the few times I needed to call Dell for service issues, I was astonished last month when a simple walk-me-through-this-wireless-configuration-please phone call turned into a nightmare of New York City Motor Vehicle Bureau type I-don't-handle-that responsibility-avoidance and please-hold-while-I-get-finish-this-solitaire-game customer-support.
Even the Muzak was terrible, being a bunch of 1980's syntho-hair-band British pop, including, and I am not making this up, "Hungry Like The Wolf."
The fact that Dell seems to think Duran-Duran might help an angry customer calm down indicates better than anything how far the once-mighty have fallen.
So when I received the following email, you can imagine what went through my mind.
Your Dell service contracts expire in 60 days
Dear Jeffrey Matthews,
Some of your Dell service contracts expire within the next 60 days. It's time to make sure all of your vital systems are well protected, and Dell is here to help.
Dell makes it easy to stay on top of everything You've got hundreds — maybe thousands — of systems to manage on a daily basis. Each one of those systems is business-critical to somebody. Your Dell service contracts can help you keep all of your Dell equipment up and running with as little hassle as possible. Unless you let those contracts expire.
Call 1-877-825-5385 to renew today!
Get the most out of your systems — and your staff
Your IT systems represent a huge investment. With Dell service, you can get maximum value from your equipment and reduce downtime. Plus, because Dell handles any problems that arise, you can save on costly repair bills and free up your resources to focus on higher value tasks.
Listed below is a status of some of your service contracts that require immediate attention:
Call 1-877-825-5385 to renew today!
If your service contract has expired and exceeded the 30 day grace period, you will be subject to a reinstatement fee up to $200 per machine.
Call us to renew!
A Dell Service Sales Representative will help you select the best options. Call today!
Renewing your service contracts is a smart choice, especially when you consider the potential impact on your bottom line. But you've only got 60 days until your contract expires, so call us today!
Dell Service Sales
P.S. It's a good time to consider upgrading your services for any crucial or high-risk systems. Dell offers additional services tailored to unique needs. A Dell Service Sales Representative will help you select the best options. Call today!
Call "a Dell Service Sales Representative"?
As Jack Nicholson once said, "I'd rather stick needles in my eyes."
Jeff Matthews
I Am Not Making This Up
© 2005 Jeff Matthews
The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Matthews. Mr. Matthews also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Matthews' recommendations.
Posted by Jeff Matthews at 9:49 AM 4 comments:
Thursday, February 02, 2006
Cellulosic Ethanol to the Rescue?
Shell said total oil and gas production fell 9% to 3.5 million barrels of oil equivalent a day from 3.84 million a day a year earlier.—Wall Street Journal
How the mighty have fallen.
During the last oil crisis—1980—when I was putting together the data to be used in the "Monthly Petroleum Review" for my boss in the equity research department of a large and fondly-remembered brokerage firm whose name rhymes with "Feral Winch," Royal Dutch Shell was probably the best-managed of the seven international oil companies.
Exxon in those days was dealing with, among other things, a failed diversification program into, believe it or not, integrated circuits (I am not making that up: Exxon had purchased Zilog for some bizarre reason), while British Petroleum was still partly owned by the UK Government, which was not exactly a value-added board-member, and also managed to top-tick the entire 1970's inflation cycle by buying Kennecott Copper in 1981.
Royal Dutch, meanwhile, was focused on gaining control of its U.S.-based affiliate, Shell Oil, which was the best-run of the domestic majors, and building a mind-boggling worldwide portfolio of oil and gas assets—all based on its original 1890 franchise: exploiting Sumatra oil fields in the Dutch colony of the Netherlands Indies.
But that was then, and this is now, as reported in today's Journal:
The company [Royal Dutch] said it expects its closely watched reserve-replacement ratio – the rate at which a company finds new reserves of oil and gas to replace the energy it pumps out of the ground each year – would be between 60% and 70% in 2005. Companies typically try to achieve 100% reserve replacement...
Yes, no kidding oil companies "try to achieve 100% reserve replacement": anything less and they are a depleting asset.
Meanwhile, the best our current administration can come up with is something called "cellulosic ethanol."
I don't know about you, but even my dog Lucy knows that "cellulosic ethanol" is not the answer to anything in a world demanding 84 million barrels of oil each day.
Back when I was crunching those numbers for the "Monthly Petroleum Review," China was a net exporter of oil while Indonesia—which two years ago followed China's example and started importing oil products—was a major oil exporter and key OPEC member…and the entire world consumed a modest 55 million barrels a day.
A 60-70% reserve replacement ratio is not, for any extraction-dependent company, a good thing. For an oil company as large and important as Royal Dutch, it is a bad thing.
And for the world at large, it is a terrible thing.
Jeff Matthews
I Am Not Making This Up
© 2005 Jeff Matthews
The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Matthews. Mr. Matthews also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Matthews' recommendations.
Posted by Jeff Matthews at 8:05 AM 15 comments:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)


text:
'I have met with but one or two persons in the course of my life who understood the art of Walking, that is, of taking walks...'
Henry David Thoreau Henry David Thoreau has been described as one of the seminal figures in American literature. His books, articles, essays, journals, and poetry total more than 20 volumes. One of his best known books, Walden (1854), he wrote from his journal which he kept while building a cabin in Massachusetts, raising his own food and writing about his experiences.
Between 1851 and 1860, however, Thoreau prepared and read his essay 'Walking' a total of 10 times, more than any other of his lectures. He considered it one of his primary works that he once wrote of the lecture, 'I regard this as a sort of introduction to all that I may write hereafter.' He died on May 6, 1862, and the essay was published for the first time one month later in the Atlantic Monthly.
As soon as I read the opening sentence, I knew I would enjoy the essay. 'I have met with but one or two persons in the course of my life who understood the art of Walking, that is, of taking walks...' I wouldn't say that I am an expert walker or that I do it that often, I guess it was just the way he arranged the words that pulled me into the essay. And after reading it a few times, here are a few highlights that stood out to me.
Getting Ready For a Walk. If you are going to be a legitimate walker, you need to be prepared. According to Thoreau, 'If you are ready to leave father and mother, and brother and sister, and wife and child and friends, and never see them again, -- if you have paid your debts, and made your will, and settled all your affairs, and are a free man, then you are ready for a walk.' Even though his words seem overstated, his point appears clear, i.e. anyone who wants to get the most value from a walk must make sure there is a disconnection from other things.
When Walking, Be in the Walk. That same disconnection must be maintained while the walk occurs. 'Of course it is of no use to direct our steps to the woods, if they do not carry us thither. I am alarmed when it happens that I have walked a mile into the woods bodily, without getting there in my spirit...What business have I in the woods, if I am thinking of something out of the woods.' I have often said that I like to be where I am. I think that may be what Thoreau had in mind.
Leave the City. Some people cannot avoid walking in the city. That's where they live. But for Thoreau, his walking goal was to get out of the city. '...I am leaving the city more and more, and withdrawing into the wilderness.' There he encountered that which would make any walk worthwhile.
Go West. 'I must walk toward Oregon, and not toward Europe...Every sunset which I witness inspires me with the desire to go to a West as distant and fair as that into which the sun goes down.' His words 'From the East light; from the West fruit,' let the reader know for Thoreau he is writing about more than just taking a walk. His essay captures the depth and breadth of his spirit.
The Wilderness. Whether Thoreau claimed that 'Love consists with wilderness' or 'In wilderness is the preservation of the world,' his words became some of the most important insights into the environmental movement. He also said, 'When I would recreate myself, I seek the darkest wood, the thickest and most interminable, and, to the citizen, most dismal swamp. I enter a swamp as a sacred place...'
I think the time has come to go for a walk.
Think about it. Dr. Don Meyer is the president ofValley Forge Christian College, Phoenixville.
Responses can be emailed to email@example.com.
Official page: Facebook.com/DrDonMeyer
Follow on Twitter: @DrDonMeyer

subset: commoncrawl


text:
See all countries >
Recent news
Archived news(over 3 years old)
Core documents for the current and previous cycles
Special Procedures
Country visits by Special Procedures
Most recent Special Procedures' reports
Report of the Special Rapporteur on the right of everyone to the enjoyment of the highest attainable standard of physical and mental health - Mission to Croatia (A/HRC/35/21/Add.2)
Report of the Working Group on Enforced or Involuntary Disappearances - Mission to Croatia (A/HRC/30/38/Add.3)
Report of the Special Rapporteur on violence against women, its causes and consequences - Mission to Croatia (A/HRC/23/49/Add.3)
Report of the Special Rapporteur on adequate housing as a component of the right to an adequate standard of living, and on the right to non-discrimination in this context - Mission to Croatia (A/HRC/16/42/Add.2)
Report of the Representative of the Secretary-General on the human rights of internally displaced persons - Mission to Croatia (E/CN.4/2006/71/Add.3)
>>Full list of documents in the Charter-based bodies Database
Main page of the Special Procedures
Field Operations and Technical Cooperation
Division (FOTCD)
Contact is in Geneva, Switzerland.
Europe and Central Asia Section
Tel. +41 22 928 9294 or +41 22 928 9279
Council of Europe:- European Court of Human Rights - Directorate General of Human Rights (DGII) - Commissioner for Human Rights - Croatia and the Council of Europe
Geneva Conventions
ILO Conventions
Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie
International Criminal Court
Ombudsman Office
Refugee Conventions


text:
Click-Lock Laminate
Our Click-Lock Laminate floors offer convenience and flexibility for DIY'ers and professional installers. Each plank features a unique surface design with 4-sided locking tongue-and-groove edges that allow the floor to float over any existing subfloor. The glue click-lock float installation system eliminates the need for adhesives and lets you experience the look and feel of your new flooring quickly and without hassle. Our click-lock laminate flooring is available in a multitude of traditional and contemporary styles, intermixing smooth and handscraped textures and micro-beveled edges.
Delano II Vintage Handscraped Crystaline LaminateCall for Pricing


text:
Welcome to the CHA Foundation's Main Donation Page!
Thank you for choosing to support Cambridge Health Alliance. By making a gift, you help some of the most vulnerable people in our community receive the health care they need and deserve. Your generosity will enable us to continue to provide the best possible health care to our diverse, complex and under-served patients. We appreciate your commitment to our patients and look forward to your involvement with our community. Thank you once again for making a difference in the lives of those we serve!
Email us!
© 2013 Cambridge Health Alliance - All Rights Reserved


text:
The use of prayer and other spiritual practices to improve health dates back thousands of years. The incorporation of spirituality into ancient medicine seems not to be simply because of the lack of diagnostic and therapeutic tools available during those times, but also because spirituality provided a way for doctors to approach care for fellow humans.
The philosopher Maimonides wrote, "May I never see in the patient anything but a fellow creature in pain."
The sentiment of this statement points to the need for humility in medicine and the willingness for doctors to be equal to those they are treating. This results in the idea of medicine as a partnership, which is an ancient concept that is gaining new recognition, respect, and understanding. The acknowledgment of the influence of spirituality on healing and on the healer may help restore a balance and sense of humanity where it may be lacking in the modern practice of medicine.
The concept of prayer and spirituality seems, in some ways, to be at the crux of mind-body medicine and how thoughts and energy may influence health and healing. Many different types of practices may help a person develop a spiritual connectedness and a balance of energy; some examples include prayer, meditation, journaling, yoga, and tai chi, among others.
What all these practices seem to have in common is that they allow a person to achieve some degree of internal clarity and emotional balance with each session. The most profound effects may occur as these techniques become part of a daily routine.
Prayer and other practices may be done alone or with a group or in a community. In a communal setting, prayer may help lessen feelings of isolation and strengthen feelings of connection and belonging as well as improve one's sense of personal identity and self-esteem.
Spirituality and religion are not necessarily the same thing. Religion is thought to be a belief in and deference to a God or other higher being. Prayer can be thought of as an act of profound awe, respect, even love for this higher being and generally takes the form of either confession, praise, or thanksgiving.
Spirituality is described as neither tangible nor material, with the spirit representing the essential nature of a person. Spirituality is thought to pertain to the ultimate meaning and purpose of life. There may be a heightened awareness of and concern for such matters when a person is ill or facing death.
Prayer is often used in a religious context to connect to one's own spirit, to spiritual affairs, and to God or another supernatural being. But it is important to point out that prayer can be practiced outside of a religious context. The connection to one's spirit and to God may occur through processes other than prayer, such as those mentioned above, like meditation, yoga, tai chi, and journal writing.
There are differing theories on how spirituality can enhance health. First, spiritual practices, including prayer, may give a person a sense of empowerment or control. That is, the person in need of healing is actively getting involved in his or her own care. In fact, even if prayer has no direct impact on the outcome of the specific medical problem, it may bring a sense of comfort that, for overall wholeness and well-being, is important.
For example, some women undergoing treatment for infertility use a ritual such as prayer on the day of a scheduled procedure. While such a process does not increase the likelihood of becoming pregnant, it allows the women to feel subjectively better as they go through the process of trying to become pregnant.
Secondly, spiritual practices may make a person feel more at ease when facing death or other difficult circumstances. Prayer may help them face uncertainty and the possibility of death by helping them accept whatever might happen.
Two other possible explanations for the healing effect of spirituality include the placebo effect and the relaxation response. In this context, the placebo effect refers to the person's belief that prayer will help him or her—just that belief may stimulate healing.
Prayer and other spiritual practices, such as those mentioned above, can elicit the relaxation response, which refers to a process in the body that reduces levels of circulating stress hormones. In turn, the heart rate is slowed, blood pressure is lowered, and immune function may even be improved.
Other studies have found apparent benefits with distance healing, which occurs when people pray for hospitalized patients. However, these studies have been criticized for errors in design. Spirituality, however, may not be open to strict evidence-base criteria.
Spirituality is an important aspect of end-of-life care. Studies indicate that the majority of patients would like their spiritual issues addressed. The hospice movement has been developed based on the model of care in which spiritual dimension is important in the care of patients.
There are instances, however, when inappropriate or unskillful incorporation of spirituality into healthcare can have negative effects. For example, some people with serious illnesses, such as cancer, may feel that their prayers were not heard or that they did something wrong through their individual process of praying if there were negative outcomes.
For some people, the very thought or idea of prayer, religion, or spirituality brings up feelings of self-doubt, self-judgment, fear, or concern.
Therefore, you should only use spiritual practices to gain comfort or insight if this is a fitting and appropriate approach for you as an individual. It is important to remember that there is no right or wrong way to do any of these practices. It may, though, be a matter of finding a particular practice that fits and works best for you.
American Cancer Society
Family Doctor—American Academy of Family Physicians
Health Canada
Public Health Agency of Canada
Gundersen L. Faith and healing. Ann Intern Med. 2000;132(2):169-172.
Puchalski CM. Addressing the spiritual needs of patients. Cancer Treat Res. 2008;140:79-91.
Puchalski CM. Spiritual issues as an essential element of quality palliative care: A commentary. J Clin Ethics. 2008;19(2):160-162.
Puchalski CM. Spirituality and the care of patients at the end-of-life: An essential component of care. Omega (Westport). 2007-2008;56(1):33-46.
Richardson P. Spirituality, religion, and palliative care. Ann Paliat Med. 2014;3(3):150-159.
Roberts L, Ahmed I, et al. Intercessory prayer for the alleviation of ill health. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2007;(1):CD000368.
Taylor EJ, Outlaw FH, et al. Spiritual conflicts associated with praying about cancer. Psychooncology. 1999;8(5):386-394.
Using the relaxation response to reduce stress. Harvard Medical School website. Available at: http://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/using-the-relaxation-response-to-reduce-stress-20101110780. Accessed April 12, 2017.
Last reviewed April 2017 by Michael Woods, MD, FAAP Last Updated: 4/22/2015


text:
The Silph Road cellular app launches in lower than four days! More Info »
Silph Road Team Bulletin:
Are you a React or RN developer? or have you learnt somebody who's? Have expertise with native app dev? If you are serious about becoming a member of the Silph Road workforce on a mission, we might like to talk! Email firstname.lastname@example.com
The Silph Road is a grassroots community of Pokémon GO™ trainers.
What does it do?
The Silph Road is a pleasant, energetic group centered on three goals:
- Constructing a real-world community of Pokemon GO fanatics
- Researching and discussing recreation mechanics and technique
- Helping newbies enhance and be taught
Sweet. How do I be part of?
- Read the intro thread
- Assign your self the right subreddit aptitude by way of the sidebar. (Only seen on desktop mode!)
- Then head to the Web app and authenticate along with your Reddit account to have the ability to contribute!
Finally, subscribe to the subreddit (above) and/or if you happen to're on Twitter, observe the deal with @TheSilphRoad to obtain updates on the Road community's growth.
Join us and assist us construct the world's most superior community of GO fanatics!
Safe travels, buddy!
Comment & Submission Rules
Familiarize your self with our pointers, traveler! This is not a common dialogue board!
- Our Focus: studying about recreation mechanics and constructing the Silph Road!
- Rude/snarky/elitist guests are proven the door. Keep it constructive and pleasant!
- This isn't the place to vent! Niantic video games are a marathon, not a completed product. We maintain an open thoughts and optimistic perspective.
- Tools or scripts which illicitly entry Niantic's servers will not be propagated nor advocated on the Road. Here, we honor Niantic's attraction to the group to maintain issues in the spirit of the sport!
- Above all, we maintain it drama-free and chill right here. Controversial subjects and drama will have to be hashed out elsewhere. No exceptions. We're right here to take pleasure in a recreationin any case. 🙂
This is a spot to benefit from the recreation and be taught collectively whereas constructing the Silph Road community!
Silph Road Guidelines: /r/TheSilphRoad/wiki/guidelines
Timeline of Events
Lots is occurring, vacationers! Here's a fast abstract of the latest main occasions on the Road. For a full historical past, go to our Comprehensive Historical Timeline wiki web page!
Recent Events
Date Oct 10 Safari Zone Event in Copenhagen & Prague Oct 14 Safari Zone Event in Stockholm & Amstelveen
September 2017
Date Sep 13 naxoph0enix factors out the sidebar hasn't been up to date shortly
June 2017
Date Jun 19 Pokemon GO Fest tickets go on sale & promote out in minutes Jun 19 Gyms briefly disabled "for a short period of time" in preparation for main recreation replace. #hype Jun 13 Solstice (Fire/Ice) Event begins at 1pm PDT
May 2017
Date May 25 Adventure Week ends May 20 Banwave and shadowban system added for illicit (botting) accounts May 18 Adventure Week occasion beginsbringing 1/four buddy distance and widespread Rock-type spawns May 10 v0.63.1 brings Brazilian language assist, medal progress UI tweaks, and hints about "raids" May 9 Grass occasion ends May 7 First "experimental" Knight Foundation + PoGO occasion (Open Streets) at Charlotte, NC May 6 Anti-snipe measure softbans for seize/encounter disparity May 5 Grass occasion begins bringing 6-hour Lures and elevated grass spawns in some areas May four Niantic proclaims partnership with the Knight Foundation for future occasions May 2 Promo code field seems in in-game Shop on Android May 1 Niantic assist accounts formally be part of Reddit group
April 2017
March 2017
Date Mar 29 Water Festival ends Mar 22 First Shiny Pokemon (Magikarp) captured in wild. Mar 22 Water Festival begins Mar 22 v0.59.1 brings a assured evolution merchandise on Seventh-day bonus, egg acquisition dates, preemptive 'shiny' Pokedex sprites, gender icons, and different UI tweaks Mar 10 The Silph Research Group decodes egg rarity tiers Mar four v0.57.four brings (precise) minor textual content fixes Mar 1 Tatsuo Nomura confirms "[Trading] won't be through the internet … The person needs to be in your proximity."
February 2017
January 2017
For a full historical past, go to our Comprehensive Historical Timeline wiki web page!


text:
Month 11 of Beginner Classical Piano Includes:
Lifetime Access to Lessons 81-88
In any computer, just log in to the piano.social members area with your username and password. You can watch the lessons as many times as you like to get all the knowledge.
Read detailed information about the follow-up course here.
Membership to the Month 11 Learning Group
You can make friends with other piano lovers, who are also adult beginners. Share your experience and get feedback and a lot of support from other students like you.
Written Support When You Have Course Related Questions
You can always ask questions directly from Jaak and he will answer. You can communicate with Jaak through email, video comments and course discussion board**.
Your Own Private Online Piano Teacher for Just $10 a Month (Access in Month 2)
Take your learning quality even further by exchanging videos with Jaak. This means that you have a real teacher who responds with meaningful and detailed videos individually designed for you. In addition to pieces you learn in the online courses, you can send any of the pieces you play to get feedback***.
Acknowledgement for Your Accomplishments
After successfully completing this course you will be rewarded: … Read more
|Certificate: 1*
|Points: 40
|Credits: 1
*The certificate is optional and will be awarded after completing the full 1 year course and submitting video(s) of you playing piano piece(s) you learned in the course.


text:
Dimbulah is the gateway to the Hodgkinson Goldfield, which was settled in 1876. Tyrconnell, Kingsborough and Mt Mulligan were towns which developed around crushing mills along the Hodgkinson River.
By 1880, four years after the discovery of minerals, the population in this area reached nearly 10,000 with settlements also including Thornborough, Beaconsfield and Northcote. Most towns were temporary with settlers doing the wheelbarrow act to move to new strikes.
By mid 1901, John Moffatt's mining company completed a private rail link from Mareeba to Chillagoe linking the mining fields to Cairns port. Dimbulah was the junction for rail lines both north and south to the mining areas. A tent camp developed to service the train with water supplies from the permanent waterhole. This permanent Walsh River water source is actually the origin of the town's name - local Barbaram Aboriginal dialect for 'long, permanent waterhole'.
Modern day Dimbulah still relies on water, however, it is agriculture which makes the money. The 1950's Tinaroo-Dmbulah irrigation scheme ensured the viability of agricultural industries. Initially tobacco was the crop of choice, however, since the demise of the tobacco industry, alternate crops have included ti-tree, mango plantations, native trees and sugarcane.
Dimbulah has a restored rail station for The Savannahlander line between Cairns and Forsayth. You can read interpretive panels here on the town's history. There's an excellent, well-serviced caravan park set in gardens, a supermarket and a butcher plus petrol stations and mechanical repair services. Centuries on Dimbulah still remains a good watering place.
Note: Information on listed products and services are provided by the operator and were correct at the time of publishing. Rates are indicative based on the minimum and maximum available prices of products and services. Please visit the operator's website for further information. All prices quoted are in Australian dollars (AUD).