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Administrative Specialist - 6006950809062019
București, Bucuresti 030171
Job Code6006950809062019
\u003Cp style=\u0022margin-bottom: 6.0pt;text-align: justify;\u0022\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003E\u003Cu\u003EJob Summary: \u003C/u\u003E\u003C/strong\u003E\u003C/p\u003E \u003Cp\u003EPerform analysis of administrative activities for defining the specifications that meet the customer configuration needs.\u003C/p\u003E \u003Cp\u003ECollaborate on a daily basis with the Swiss client via the ticketing tool, with 3\u003Csup\u003Erd\u003C/sup\u003E parties and with Payroll specialist in Tunis.\u003C/p\u003E \u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003E\u003Cu\u003EResponsibilities\u003C/u\u003E\u003C/strong\u003E\u003Cu\u003E:\u003C/u\u003E\u003C/p\u003E \u003Cp\u003ECoordinate services by procedures and policies; monitoring administrative tasks according to the contract; maintaining the level of services done until now.\u003C/p\u003E \u003Cp\u003EIn this respect, he/she must carry out the following actions:\u003C/p\u003E \u003Cul\u003E \u003Cli style=\u0022text-align: justify;\u0022\u003E Process data from client payroll-files to register for social security or tax the entries, leavers and other mutations with online tools from AVS etc.\u003C/li\u003E \u003Cli style=\u0022text-align: justify;\u0022\u003E Being the contact point for 3\u003Csup\u003Erd\u003C/sup\u003E parties like AVS, Pension Fund, tax authorities and other in languages German and English\u003C/li\u003E \u003C/ul\u003E \u003Cul style=\u0022margin-top: 0.0in;\u0022\u003E \u003Cli style=\u0022margin-bottom: 7.5pt;text-align: justify;\u0022\u003ERegister employees for cases like maternity leave, military leave, family allowance, accidents and sickness and unemployment form\u003C/li\u003E \u003Cli style=\u0022margin-bottom: 7.5pt;text-align: justify;\u0022\u003EProvide feedback to clients regarding open requests\u003C/li\u003E \u003Cli style=\u0022margin-bottom: 7.5pt;text-align: justify;\u0022\u003EOffer the best level of Service to Customers\u003C/li\u003E \u003Cli style=\u0022margin-bottom: 7.5pt;text-align: justify;\u0022\u003EMaintain, develop and optimize standard operating procedures\u003C/li\u003E \u003Cli style=\u0022margin-bottom: 7.5pt;text-align: justify;\u0022\u003EWork on automation regarding processes / services\u003C/li\u003E \u003Cli style=\u0022margin-bottom: 7.5pt;text-align: justify;\u0022\u003EJoin meetings with the client by calls or onsite\u003C/li\u003E \u003C/ul\u003E \u003Cp\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C/p\u003E \u003Cp\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C/p\u003E \u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003E\u003Cu\u003EReports \u0026 Performance Metrics\u003C/u\u003E\u003C/strong\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003E: \u003C/strong\u003E\u003C/p\u003E \u003Cul\u003E \u003Cli\u003E On time delivery of assigned client, tasks.\u003C/li\u003E \u003Cli style=\u0022margin-bottom: 6.0pt;text-align: justify;\u0022\u003E Quality control reports\u003C/li\u003E \u003C/ul\u003E \u003Cp style=\u0022margin-bottom: 6.0pt;text-align: justify;\u0022\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003E\u003Cu\u003ETraining\u003C/u\u003E\u003C/strong\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003E\u003Cu\u003E:\u003C/u\u003E\u003C/strong\u003E\u003C/p\u003E \u003Cul\u003E \u003Cli\u003E Swiss legislation\u003C/li\u003E \u003Cli\u003E Sage, Decidium, Flexiform, SOP Appendix\u003C/li\u003E \u003Cli\u003E E-Learning on ADP communication tools: SPM, Transfer Box, Siebel, Medalia, Web Ex.\u003C/li\u003E \u003C/ul\u003E \u003Cp style=\u0022text-align: justify;\u0022\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003E\u003Cu\u003EKnowledge and Skill Requirements\u003C/u\u003E\u003C/strong\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003E\u003Cu\u003E:\u003C/u\u003E\u003C/strong\u003E\u003C/p\u003E \u003Cul\u003E \u003Cli\u003E An understanding of the client\u0027s trade, business and organization - Business administration and human resources\u003C/li\u003E \u003Cli\u003E Excel\u003C/li\u003E \u003Cli\u003E Proactive\u003C/li\u003E \u003Cli\u003E Time management\u003C/li\u003E \u003Cli\u003E Good interpersonal skills\u003C/li\u003E \u003Cli\u003E Good oral and written communication skills\u003C/li\u003E \u003Cli\u003E German -- minimum B2 level,\u003C/li\u003E \u003Cli\u003E English -- minimum B2 level\u003C/li\u003E \u003Cli\u003E French or Italian is a plus\u003C/li\u003E \u003Cli\u003E Analytical skills and ability to summarize\u003C/li\u003E \u003Cli\u003E Organized\u003C/li\u003E \u003Cli\u003E Rigorous\u003C/li\u003E \u003Cli\u003E Team player\u003C/li\u003E \u003Cli\u003E Dynamic and responsive\u003C/li\u003E \u003C/ul\u003E \u003CP\u003E\u003C/P\u003E \u003CP\u003EWe\u0027re designing a better way to work, so you can achieve what you\u0027re working for. Consistently named one of the \u0027Most Admired Companies\u0027 by FORTUNE\u00AE Magazine, and recognized by DiversityInc\u00AE as one of the \u0027Top 50 Companies for Diversity,\u0027 ADP works with more than 740,000 organizations across the globe to help their people work smarter, embrace new challenges, and unleash their talent. \u0022Always Designing for People\u0022 means we\u0027re creating platforms that will transform how great work gets done, so together we can unlock a world of opportunity.\u003C/P\u003E \u003CP\u003EAt ADP, we believe that diversity fuels innovation. ADP is committed to equal employment opportunities regardless of race, color, genetic information, creed, religion, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity, lawful alien status, national origin, age, marital status, or protected veteran status. We support an inclusive workplace where associates excel based on personal merit, qualifications, experience, ability, and job performance.\u003C/P\u003E
Posted: 2019-09-13 Expires: 2019-12-12
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A new way for our members to access the huge wealth of knowledge content ICE has. Organised into bite-sized modules.
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This webinar is here to show you why it's important to plan for your eventual retirement and is definitely for you... unless you are planning to work forever of course. If you have started your pension planning, switch on to this webinar for a pensions reboot and make sure you've got everything covered.
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12:30 Introduction from Sarah Parker, Casework & Marketing Administrator, ICE Ben Fund
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A library of the classics in psychiatry is, to put it blandly, hard to come by. Hence, the gleaning of historically significant works in order to abstract from them representative samplings is a useful and laudable enterprise. A good many years ago Smith Ely Jelliffe attempted to do as much. His translations of and commentaries on the ancient Greek physicians who wrote on mental illness, published as occasional papers, are still worth reading. Jelliffe was an erudite man with many irons in the fire. He did not go far in his history project. Gregory Zilboorg, whose A History of Medical
Documentary History of Psychiatry: A Source Book on Historical Principles.. Ann Intern Med. 1967;67:470. doi: https://doi.org/10.7326/0003-4819-67-2-470
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Jun Bum-sun, leader of the band "The Yangbans" and owner of the bookstore Poolmoojil
#Artist Search l 2019-09-09
Members: Mark, Renjun, Jeno, Haechan, Jaemin, Chenle, Jisung
Record Label: SM
Debut: 2016
NCT Dream is the 3rd sub-unit of the boy band NCT. The group follows an admission-graduation system, where they graduate from the group after reaching the age of 19. The group debuted in 2016 with the single "Chewing Gum".
Singles & Eps (as lead artist)
We Boom – The 3rd Mini Album (EP, 2019)
Fireflies (Single, 2019)
Don't Need Your Love (Single, 2019)
Candle Light (Single, 2018)
We Go Up – The 2nd Mini Album (EP, 2018)
JOY – SM STATION (single, 2017)
We Young – The 1st Mini Album (EP, 2017)
Trigger The Fever (Single, 2017)
The First – The 1st Single (Single, 2017)
Chewing Gum (Single, 2016)


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My favorite business book series if the Good To Great series by Jim Collins.
I've read and reread those books and always learn something new.
One of the myths dispelled in those books (I can't remember exactly the one) is the idea that great leaders need to always be coming up with new ideas.
The myth seems to come about from public perception. We see a company, let's say Apple, come out with a great new product, the iPhone.
We think that it's a genius idea. And we think that great companies are build by great leaders with great ideas.
The trouble, though, is that line of thinking can lead to lurching from one idea to the next and from one strategy to the next.
That can lead to a death spiral. It can lead to a quick demise and to a slow demise, but usually to demise.
Are You A Lurcher?
Entrepreneurs are usually blessed with brains that are always turning. Ideas seem to come easy for entrepreneurs. Maybe not all entrepreneurs. Maybe not all the time. But it seems that for many this is the case.
Entrepreneurs see the world differently. They see opportunity.
That's a blessing and a curse in a way.
There are lots of opportunities, but the most successful are the ones that can figure out the right opportunities. And they're not just looking at the short-term. They're looking at the long-term.
Lurchers, on the other hand, are always looking for the quick fix. They're looking for immediate results and satisfaction. That can work sometimes, but usually it leads to an ultimate death.
Lurching leads to giving up on things too soon. It means investing too much into things that haven't been fully proven. In either case it's obviously not good for a business.
Lurching comes in many areas of business.
It might be in the launch of a new product or service. A lurcher might pull the plug too soon and look for something else.
It could be with a new employee. A lurcher might cut the cord with an employee before they have a chance to find their footing.
Maybe it's with a sales initiative. A lurcher doesn't see immediate return so they move on looking for the next opportunity.
Blocking Noise, Thinking Long-Term
Ted Thompson is the general manager of the Green Bay Packers. He has a love/hate relationship with fans.
They usually love him when they think about the long-term side of things. But they hate him in the heat of the moment because he usually doesn't react quickly or with any emotion. I think that's what makes him successful if a bit odd.
One example of how he operates is how he handled kicker Mason Crosby a few years ago.
Word out of training camp was that Mason was not kicking the ball well. Then there was a very public Family Night event where Mason couldn't make any kick. It was surely the end of the line for him. Fans were out for blood and ready to move on.
But Thompson looked at the big picture and the long-term. Mason had been the best kicker in team history. His leg was still strong. His dedication and focus were still strong. All signs pointed to him simply going through a slump.
Thompson stuck with Mason and after struggling for a bit more he turned things around and has been one of the best kickers in the league the last few years.
Thompson is excellent when it comes to blocking out the noise and focusing on the long-term. He doesn't lurch when it comes to important decisions.
Small Tests, Long-Term Commitment
Another lesson from the Good To Great books is the idea of doing small tests before doing big rollouts of products, services, etc.
Successful companies are always testing things. They don't invest enough in any one test that failure would ruin the company. Far from it. But they're always doing little things just to see what might work.
Then when something does show promise (usually after a long period of testing) the company is ready to put proper investment behind it while also continuing to look at the long-term.
Think of the story of Pixar. They didn't come to find success immediately by any means. They had dreams of doing feature length animation films, but struggled for a long time trying small shorts and tinkering with new technology.
Finally, after having success with certain short films they were able to have enough proof that a feature would work and the result was Toy Story.
One key reminder on this point is that you can't give up on the little tests too soon. Give them enough time until you're full convinced that it won't work. Don't invest so much so that it bankrupts you, but let tests run their course.
Leaders have a constant balancing act to play. You have to be able to drown out the noise and make big decisions. But so much of business happens outside of the big decisions. You can't lurch from one idea to the next and expect long-term success. That's a recipe for failure.
Success comes from giving small projects proper testing and long-term commitment and then when they show promise going in with full commitment for the even longer term. Take that approach to all you do in business and you'll be in really good shape for future success.


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Tuesday, March 12, 2013 – Smoke Signals
Mark your calendar – April 5 & 6 – and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year's conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend.
Smoke Signals
by Sinclair Noe
Today we will communicate with smoke signals, the same as the Vatican, which started its conclave to elect a new Pope with black smoke. Wall Street was blowing black smoke out of its chimneys for most of the day, and then near the end of trading, a little wisp of white smoke pushed the Dow iIndustrial Average into positive territory, and another record high close.
President Obama travels to Capitol Hill to try to sell his grand bargain on the deficit. GOP blows black smoke from its chimney. Anyway, it appears that no one wants to listen to the president, meaning a grand bargain may be no easier to strike now than it was in 2011 or 2012 or any other time Obama has failed to do it. Paul Ryan responds by trotting out the Ryan Plan, which we've seen before; but this one was updated and slightly more regressive. Ryan's budget is presented as nothing but a sober-minded effort to make "tough choices" and solve practical problems. It turns Medicare into a voucher plan, slashes spending on Medicaid and food stamps, repeals Obamacare, and cuts taxes for the wealthy. In response, the White House blows black smoke from its chimney.
The National Federation of Independent Business says its small business optimism index improved slightly in February; up 1.9 points to 90.8. Apparently, that is still a pretty low level on the scale of optimism indices; on Main Street, earnings are depressed, sales are down quarter over quarter, and there's not much to lift spending, don't look for a boost in hiring, and small business owners report that lending options remain closed. Black smoke on Main Street.
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds two-thirds of Americans say they are cutting their monthly spending and almost all of the rest say their spending is little changed
The biggest reason given by those who said they are cutting spending – 72 percent of those polled – was increasing savings and paying off debts. The second biggest was higher gas prices, cited by 63 percent.
Of those cutting back specifically because of gas prices or tax increases, 81 percent said they are cutting down on meals at restaurants, 73 percent are reducing entertainment costs such as movies and concerts and 62 percent are spending less on travel and vacations.
At the same time, affluent consumers are showing signs of increased confidence, according to at least one recent survey. This bifurcation may play into concerns about income inequality and could add to pressure in Congress to resist any budget deficit cutting deal that reduces spending on the social safety net and doesn't include further taxes on the wealthy.
Mohamed El-Erian, Pimco CEO says the Fed will not tolerate a big selloff in risk assets; two, the Fed has been forcing other central banks to be more aggressive; and third, investors can shrug off political issues. El-Erian says the Fed has been "artificially altering prices" and changing investor behavior; but he doesn't think the Fed's winding down from $85 billion a month in bond purchases, aggressive forward guidance, and near zero interest rates will "come for quite a while." But when it does happen: "It's going to be incredibly complex." With the Dow at record highs, El-Erian says he doesn't see a "great rotation" from bonds to stocks, rather the money is flowing into stocks from cash and money markets. White smoke from the chimney of Pimco.
The advance to new highs on the Dow is a direct result of never-before-seen manipulation by the Federal Reserve. The next question is whether the Fed can engineer a new era of prosperity in America. Bernanke has long claimed that he can't do it alone, so we might be looking at an example of where the stock market will not predict the nation's economic future. It seems that way, but more likely, we're just seeing a lag in the smoke signals.
Historically the stock market tends to act three to six months ahead of the economy in both directions. That pattern has not gone away. The 2007-2009 bear market bottomed in March 2009 when the current bull market began. The 2008-2009 recession was proclaimed to be officially ended three months later in June, 2009.
The stock market has been factoring in the economic recovery since, and has already recovered to its pre-crisis levels, the Dow and S&P 500 now back to their peaks of 2007. Meanwhile, the economy is merely catching up to what the stock market has been predicting for it.
But as the economy catches up to the market's expectation, the market will continue to focus on what lies ahead, and at this point it may not be a continuation of what it has anticipated for the last four years. Through those years the economy has been fueled by extreme easy money policies, record low interest rates, and massive government fiscal and monetary stimulus.
The government already began reversing the fiscal stimulus last year with cutbacks in federal payrolls, and is significantly stepping up that reversal this year, with the 2% payroll tax increase in January, and now the upcoming automatic "sequester" cuts in government spending, or some negotiated form of the automatic cuts.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has promised to keep its easy money policies and QE programs, including record low interest rates, going well into 2014 – unless the economy improves faster than expected or inflation heats up.
And already we're hearing hints that the Fed may also begin to remove the QE punchbowl sooner than currently expected. I don't mean to scare you. The Fed won't be taking away the punch bowl because they're scared of screwing up everything. But the politicians act like it's their job to screw things up; they roll around in dysfunction like pigs in mud. And the stronger the stock market the more they are encouraged to take away the punch bowl. Then, we head into April and May, which marks the end of the markets' best six months. It's amazing how things synch up. However, there is a chance that sly investors will try to step in front of the "Sell in May" strategy, and sell a bit early.
Consider: The quality of the recent rally seems dubious; it's based on the Fed's loose money policy. Money market and savings accounts earn next to nothing, and that is forcing investors to accept the risks of stock ownership or get paid almost nothing. This is dangerous.
The quality of the "recovery" also seems dubious. Despite a good jobs report on Friday, the economy is fragile. The housing market has shown signs of strength, but again much of the rally can be traced back to the Fed, which now controls the market for mortgage backed securities.
And there are still major risks outside the US. The Euro-zone appears to have stabilized, but it is still in a downward glide due to austerity. And the Eurobeatings will continue until morale improves. That is the consensus of the IMF and the European Council, and almost everyone in a position of power, except Beppe Grillo.
If a bank is forced to pay $54 million to regulators over bad loans should the public be made aware of it?
Probably. If for nothing else than for the sake of transparency in the post-2008 world. But since 2007, the independent US agency responsible for maintaining public confidence in the US financial system has preferred to settle wrong-doing by banks outside of court while also keeping news of settlements private.
That's according to a report in the Los Angeles Times which obtained more than 1,600 pages of FDIC settlements from 2007 with banks and individuals accused of wrongdoing. The cases involve reckless loans to homeowners, falsified documents and among other things inflated appraisals, according to the report.
Instead of pursuing the cases in court the FDIC has been settling with defendants for a fraction of the losses incurred. But perhaps the more controversial finding is that the FDIC has agreed in "scores of settlements" to a so-called "no press release" clause that would prevent it from voluntarily making the agreements public. In other words, the agency would apparently avoid issuing news around settlements.
Restoring trust frequently requires symbolic, as well as merely effective, change to take place. One insight from the tradition of penitence and forgiveness is that it is often not enough to put matters back to where they were before things went wrong; some demonstration of a change of heart by means of restitution and a visibly robust refusal to let the same failings occur again, is necessary before a bad situation can be made good.Exactly what kind of action by the banks, or by the government, would be necessary to restore trust in this way would probably emerge if the debate about banking ethics were to take place openly in the public realm. To achieve this is not just a matter of technical "fixes" but may require public, corporate, contrition for past failings, demonstrably robust structures to ensure that old mistakes are not repeated, and possibly some symbolic steps to assure the public that the corporate culture has changed.
And from the FDIC and the banks, black smoke. And for systemic corrections and trust in public institutions – black smoke.


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Group initiation of insulin is a cost-effective strategy
Group starting of insulin is becoming much more popular, especially as diabetes nurses are becoming increasingly stretched by heavy workloads.
INITIATE was a randomised, multicentre, two arm, parallel-design study that compared starting insulin (bedtime insulin glargine) as a member of a group of four to eight patients with individual tuition and support. The study recruited 121 insulin-naive patients with type 2 diabetes who were poorly controlled on oral hypoglycaemic agents.
Patients self adjusted the glargine dose to achieve a fasting plasma glucose of 4.0–5.5mmol. Patients were assessed before and at initiation of insulin treatment, and at six, 12 and 24 weeks follow-up. The primary endpoint was difference in HbA1c between the education programmes at 24 weeks.
The mean HbA1c fell from 8.7% to 6.9% in those treated individually and from 8.8% to 6.8% in the group start patients over the course of the study. There was no significant difference in the decrease in HbA1c between the groups.
There was no significant difference in the percentage of patients experiencing hypoglycaemia or the average number of symptomatic incidents experienced during the study. There was also no significant difference in the mean insulin dose at 24 weeks.
However, starting insulin in groups took half the time that initiating insulin individually took.
The findings of this study strongly support group starting of insulin as a cost-effective strategy.
Yki-Jarvinen H, Jvurinen L, Alvarsson M et al. Initiate Insulin by aggressive titration and education (INITIATE). Diabetes Care 2007;30:1364-1369Dr Matthew LockyerDr Matthew Lockyer Reviewer
Dr Matthew Lockyer
GP, Suffolk and hospital practitioner in diabetic medicine


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School of dating magic
One of Rachel Lindsay's guys on "The Bachelorette" was determined, or even desperate, to be on the show ever since he was in high school.
Free for children 12 and under, it is offered in French and English. Learn more Are you passionate about graphic design and the art of posters? meets Harry Potter, which incites a spell of giddiness upon anyone who thinks about it.More details have recently been revealed on this still untitled game's features.Help them in this dress up game to reach their required...Join the fantastic Magic School and learn how to be a witch and create real potions and magic spells! She is a beautiful girl but as any other girl, she has some beauty secrets to look always fabulous. Join three lovely bridesmaids for a beautiful and relaxing tea party!


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Zee Media Bureau
New Delhi: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a nervous system disease which affects the brain and spinal cord. MS is a lifelong condition that can sometimes cause serious disability.
The exact cause of multiple sclerosis is unknown. However, the underlying mechanism is thought to be either destruction by the immune system or failure of the myelin-producing cells. It can also be caused by a combination of genetic and environmental factors.
Although MS can occur in young children and older adults, the condition most commonly affects people between the ages of 20 and 50.
While the symptoms of multiple sclerosis may vary from person to person, some of the common warning signs include:
- Vision problems
- Numbness and tingling in the arms and legs
- Fatigue
- Headache
- Dizziness
- Muscle spasms, stiffness and weakness
- Balance difficulties
- Bladder or bowel problems
- Pain in parts of the body
- Tremor
- Breathing problems
- Problems with thinking, learning and planning
- Depression and anxiety
- Speech problems
Unfortunately, there's no cure for multiple sclerosis, but treatments can help control the condition. It's important to recognize the early signs of the condition and pay attention to them. Early detection may help prevent multiple sclerosis from progressing quickly as well as have a positive impact on the treatment.


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Don't Get Got! SXSW Gaming Edition
Don't Get Got is a secret party game that brings a fun twist to the festival experience for all to enjoy! Accomplish secret missions and objectives each day and be the first to claim victory and the prize at SXSW Gaming 2019. Stop by the Big Potato Games booth for your chance to participate and claim an exclusive mission pack to accomplish while attending this year's festival.
Programming descriptions are generated by participants and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of SXSW.
Buy a Gaming Wristband
Primary Entry: Music Badge, Platinum Badge, Music Festival Wristband, Artist Wristband, Film Badge, Interactive Badge, Gaming Wristband
Format: Play Session
Event Type: Special Event
Track: SXSW Gaming


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Will Your Classic Car Restoration Project Stand Out?
It's easy to just buy a new car, but you have better taste and higher standards. That's why you've got classic car restoration on the brain. You aren't the first one to catch the bug.
At Legendary Auto Interiors, we've seen it all before. We know that if you want your project to catch the eye and draw the crowds, you need to put work into the details.
Here's what we recommend:
Set Yourself Up for Success
Browse through the classifieds, and it won't be long before you come across an orphaned project someone didn't have the oomph to get done. Of course, you'll do better. Right?
Before you plunk down your cash, make sure you are set up to finish the job:
- Space – Make sure you have a work area with enough floor space and electrical power so you can comfortably tinker away
- Tools – Take an inventory of your existing toolset and identify the missing items you might need before you get started
- Budget – Organize your finances and set a limit on how much you intend to spend
- Time – Great car restoration takes a while, anywhere from 800-1,000 hours of labor on average, and you need to plan accordingly
- Motivation – The restoration process is a labor of love, and there's nothing like starting up your beauty after all the hard work you put into her. Be sure you're ready for this incredible experience.
Once those things are in order, find a car that's a suitable restoration candidate. Make sure it's a vehicle worth restoring. Try to avoid vehicles with excessive rust, missing pieces, or mechanical issues if you're not prepared to deal with such large (and often costly) problems.
Remember to do your research. Make a parts list of components you need to track down and install to put your old beauty back together.
Make It Pop with a New Interior
Classic car interior pieces are some of the most difficult original pieces to find. Old, mildew-stained seats can ruin the aesthetics of your ride. If you smell mold, it's likely you have some water damage from leaky seals. It's a common problem.
You can try to repair the damage, but you're usually better off with replacement interiors. Plus, you can get replacement parts that are actually from the same time period as your vehicle, preserving your vehicle's integrity and making your vehicle stand out.
Here are some elements you can consider replacing:
- Seat Kits – Swap out your old seating with cloth, vinyl, or leather upholstery
- Panels – Match the seats with new door and body panels for the same look and feel
- Headliners – Change out sagging old roof trim pieces
- Fabric Tops – Complement the interior with a vinyl top
Complete replacement assemblies reduce your total labor costs and require fewer special tools to install. You can usually do the work yourself, which is the whole point of your project!
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10 Photoshop Shortcuts for Beginners
Photoshop is an amazingly powerful tool and being able to quickly execute these simple commands will make your Photoshop adventure a bit smoother.
Photoshop is an amazingly powerful tool. There's so much potential that it can be overwhelming when you dive into your first project. One of the things that can boost your confidence is having a few shortcuts under your belt. Being able to execute these simple commands quickly will make your Photoshop adventure a bit smoother.
Cmd/Ctrl+Z is the universal "oops" shortcut, but Photoshop is a little different if you want to undo more than one action. Press Cmd/Ctrl+Alt+Z lets you cancel more than just one previous action.
Having a quick way to close out all of your documents can come in handy. To do so, Shift-Click any image window's close icon.
Quick Layer Merge
If you have a lot of layers that can be condensed, press Cmd/Ctrl+Shift+Alt+E to merge a copy of all layers.
Fit Screen
Press Cmd/Ctrl+0 to resize your picture to fit on the screen.
Filling Selections
Once you have your selection made, press Shift+F5 to fill your selection.
Brush Size and hardness
When touching up a photo, you might need to adjust your brush accordingly quickly. Use ] and [ to change your brush size, and use } and { to increase/decrease brush hardness.
Quick Resizing
Sometimes you need to adjust and resize your image, and the quickest way to do that is to activate the free transform tool by pressing Cmd/Ctrl+T.
Quick Save for Web
Photoshop does a great job of exporting high-quality images. However, those massive files aren't always web friendly. A quick fix for this is to press Cmd/Ctrl+Shift+Opt+S to save your project for web and devices.
So, let's say you made your selection on a layer in Photoshop, did what you needed to do, and now you're ready to move on from that selection. Just hit Cmd/Ctrl+D to clear the selected area instantly.
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Katrina Abatis (MSP Staff)@katrina active 3 years, 10 months ago
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Katrina Abatis is a program officer in the Mediation Support Team. She works within the Mediation Support Project (MSP), which is a joint project between the CSS and swisspeace, supported by the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA) and is secretariat of the Mediation Support Network.
Katrina has prior work experience in cultural integration and has a particular interest in intercultural mediation. She obtained her Bachelor and Masters Degree at the University of Leicester (UK).
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Lacrosse Shooting String Styles
Shooting Strings are a personalizable preference every player can change. If you're a stringer it's good to keep this in mind because every player has a different style. I always ask players who's sticks I string, 'What has worked in the past for you?' to get a good idea of what they like.
Based on how you string your sidewall pattern, you have created a channel and placed your pocket that controls the release. Not all shooting string styles will work on every lacrosse pocket, so experimenting is necessary. If you have a tight channel then you won't be able to have a lot of shooting strings, or the ball will whip down. If you have a wider channel, then you will probably want more shooters for added hold.
Lacrosse Shooting String Rule: "The 4-inch shooting string rule" -For both NCAA and NFHS, measuring from the top of the scoop, you can't have any shooters past the 4-inch mark.
Lacrosse Pockets Have Catch Points
Take the StringKing Complete 2 stick that we were sent for example. This is a universal pocket that StringKing equips on all of their Legend heads. To demonstrate this example, I took the shooting strings out but have included an original photo below.
Original Stringing on the StringKing Legend Lacrosse Head
Time to Take the Shooters out
As I press the lacrosse ball into the pocket to test the catch point you can see where the pocket depth comes to an end and sharply declines. This point in the pocket is demonstrated by the solid red line across the pocket. Now for most players, if you add a shooting string below that row it will be too whippy. This is because the lacrosse mesh needs to expand when the ball hits that point and if a shooting string is there it will restrict it.
Where StringKing Places Shooting Strings
Lacrosse Shooting String Tips
Shooting strings come in three types of materials which are: cotton, synthetic, and hockey lace. I have found through personal experience that I prefer cotton over every other option. I will use synthetic on traditional strung sticks, but avoid using them with mesh. This does not mean that this will be the case for your preferences so experiment and try them all!
Lacrosse Shooting String Styles
There are many different styles of shooting strings that you can use or experiment when stringing your lacrosse stick. Traditionally, straight weaved shooting strings have been the most popular since the rules in NFHS and NCAA have banned U and V styles. This has been a problem for some players, but others have embraced the change and use no shooter like Matt Gibson.


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Posts tagged 'market valuation'
Linking Fortunes
Markets have begun to think about inflation again. In the US the new President is expected to contribute further towards existing pressure on prices; in Britain the weak pound has led to imported inflation as we saw again only this week. Talk in some quarters has turned, quite reasonably, to inflation protection, and specifically to index-linked bonds. This post is for anyone who is unsure what these are or how they work.
The UK was the first significant issuer of index-linked sovereign debt beginning in 1981. Details of the history and mechanics of the market are available from the Debt Management Office (DMO) website here. But the gist is as follows.
Gilts pay coupon interest semi-annually and repay principal on maturity. In an inflationary environment the real value of these interest and principal payments falls over time. So index-linked gilts, or "linkers", have their coupon and principal varied in line with the Retail Price Index (RPI, the old measure of inflation, as distinct from the CPI measure which the Bank of England still officially targets).
Complicating things slightly there are two sorts of linker. The first, older variety lag RPI by eight months. This is to allow coupons to accrue on the basis of known values: a payment due in six month's time will be based on the RPI print from two months ago (the additional month allowing for revision to the initial data release), so there is no uncertainty. Reflecting advances in technology, this type of gilt was superseded in 2005 by another which lags by only three months. This still allows for data revisions but by adjusting coupon and principal payments during accrual periods it follows RPI more closely over the life of the bond.
One further concept to mention is the breakeven inflation rate. This is the rate at which RPI would have to run to equalize returns between conventional and index-linked gilts of the same maturity. At present the benchmark ten-year linker yields -1.8% (these yields are always quoted in real terms). The ten-year conventional gilt yields 1.4%. So if RPI runs at 3.2% over the life of the bonds the linker will end up paying the same as the conventional. This tells investors about the relative value of the two types of security at different times, and about the market's view on RPI inflation of course.
Index-linked gilts are the key securities for investors looking to protect themselves against UK inflation, as measured by the RPI. Of course in the event of RPI deflation then linker payments are cut rather than increased, which is something to bear in mind, as is the tax treatment: while gilt coupons are taxable as income any change in principal, including the full value of the indexation uplift, is completely tax free.
There are some index-linked corporate bonds in issue too. Like ordinary corporate bonds these pay a spread over government bonds to reflect credit risk and other things, but corporate linkers also track RPI in the same way as gilts. For individuals investing outside a tax wrapper, however, there is bad news. Unlike gilts, the principal uplift on corporate linkers is taxable – and taxable as income at that . . .
Of course the UK is not the only country to issue linkers. There is a sizeable French market, for instance. This offers bonds linked to two indices: the standard CPI and the CPI ex tobacco. Other eurozone countries also have index-linked government bonds in issue, which gives investors the opportunity to take views on respective inflation rates for different economies while bearing the same currency risk.
Some emerging market borrowers also issue linkers. Here, of course, currency volatility can be very high. But if inflation is imported on the back of currency weakness this benefits index-linked securities. In 2015 for instance the Brazilian real lost 49% of its value against the dollar. Year-on-year CPI peaked at 10.7%. And over the course of the year, the conventional government bond maturing in 2025 returned -8.1% while the 2024 linker returned 9.9%. For those interested in emerging market debt, then, there are times when indexation can be a helpful angle – where it is available of course.
Less exotically, the largest issuer of linkers is the US government by way of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities ("TIPS"). The value of this market is currently $1.2trn (as against £603bn for index-linked gilts). TIPS seem to have found their strongest ever following at present. And not without reason: US breakevens from five years onwards are at about 2%, as against a 20-year average for CPI inflation of 2.2%. Should the US economy be entering a period of above average inflation, therefore, TIPS would offer value relative to conventional Treasuries – while giving dollar investors protection from the real-terms erosion of their wealth of course.
Index-linked securities are generally less volatile than conventionals, or thinking about this another way, even more boring. But there can be a place for dullness, or dependability, in portfolios. And in the event of a serious inflationary outbreak, linkers could well turn out to be the best bet in town. It is no coincidence that the British government first issued them on the back of a report from a committee that started work under Harold Wilson in 1977 – a short time after the oil crisis and a year over which UK inflation averaged 16%.
Shocks And Undercurrents
The ongoing drama over Greece continues to monopolise the financial world's attention. We will probably find out how it ends – for the time being – in a day or two. In the meantime it has been easy to lose sight both of other potential sources of political risk and of the macro and market undercurrents which as rational investors we of course believe will come to dominate in the end.
Political risk is a difficult measure to quantify and a shock, by definition, cannot be planned for. However we have had some horrible reminders today that terrorism is grievously on the rise. This morning it was the attack on a factory in France; then a bombing in Tunisia; and a suicide attack on a Kuwaiti mosque during Friday prayers. These acts have all been claimed or inspired by the Islamic State.
The growing confidence and appeal of IS became glaringly obvious at the time of the Charlie Hebdo atrocity in Paris. Concerns have mounted since at the numbers of Muslims in European and other "western" countries who have tried to join IS in the Middle East, and who it is feared have been returning to shed blood in their homelands thereafter. And competition between IS and Al-Qaeda has been escalating in an attempt to establish leadership of global jihad. The rise of terrorism and the occurrence of any attack is lamentable but it is this last point which poses the risk to markets: something on the scale of the Bishopsgate bombing of 1993 or the 9/11 attacks eight years later has become a strategic goal for terror.
Meanwhile, the collapse of peace talks over Yemen last week has seen renewed Saudi bombardment of the country as the civil war there grinds on: the war doubles as a proxy conflict between the Saudis and Iran. Internal Yemeni rivalry between Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State is a complicating factor, as is the US drone campaign there against the former (though this is supposed to have been suspended in recent months). Elsewhere, negotiations continue to secure a commitment from Iran that she will not become a nuclear power; there is little encouragement to date that their objective will be achieved. In other words, the perpetual powder keg which is the Middle East has been getting even more alarming this year.
It seems reasonable to conclude that the risk of short-term setbacks to risk assets has increased in 2015. But what of the underlying fundamentals?
Here the picture is more mixed, which is to say, more positive overall. Attempts have been made to portray some of the major equity markets as dangerously overvalued but they do not stand up to balanced scrutiny. The economic outlook has disappointed in some places – most conspicuously in the US – and improved in others, such as in Europe, where even the threat of a Greek default has not noticeably dented confidence this month.
One area which has seen some movement this quarter has been the safe haven bond markets. There has been a marked sell off. The ten year gilt yield has risen by 60bp, the ten year US Treasury yield is almost 50bp higher and the ten year German bund yield is up by 70bp, having reached a low of 0.075% as recently as April. Upward moves in interest rates from the Federal Reserve, and with more of a local impact the Bank of England, have been drawing nearer for some time. The futures markets are currently pricing in a 25bp hike from both towards the end of the year. By then the disinflationary impact of last year's fall in the price of crude oil will have unwound completely. Indeed, should the price rise between now and December then energy will become a source of inflation again.
Bond markets have a long way to go in many places, including here in the UK, before they start to close the valuation gap with equity. The earnings yield on the FTSE All Share Index is still almost three times the gross redemption yield on the ten year gilt, having averaged 1.8x over the last 20 years and 1.1x in the decade prior to the credit crunch in 2007. To reach those levels again the gilt yield would have to rise to 3.5% or 5.8% from 2.2% today. Furthermore, stock market observers seem pretty convinced that markets will take the early phase of rate hiking in their stride, largely because this is what happened last time. They might well be right – but this is not how things went the time before that (1994 as opposed to 2004) and since rate rises are such a novel idea these days their rediscovery surely poses some measure of risk.
So while the threat of short-term shocks has increased the possible medium-term headwinds from monetary tightening have been blowing closer too. It is doubtful whether most major stock markets are in bubble territory and likely that economic and reported earnings growth have much further to run. But selling on the records rather than buying on the dips appears the more rational approach at this point in time.
Breaking Records
There was some cheerful news for the UK equity market this week as the FTSE 100 index closed at a record high of 6949, finally beating the previous high – 6930 – it had reached way back on 30 December 1999. This milestone has generated a lot of comment on topics such as its relevance as an economic indicator and whether it comes as a sign that investors should sell. So what, if anything, does the record-breaking date of Tuesday 24 February 2015 tell us about the value of the market?
It has taken more than fifteen years for the 1999 record to be beaten. That is a good long time in financial markets, and perhaps especially so for markets in growth assets which have historically offered long run real returns of 5% per year. Had December 1999 been a textbook average starting point for investing in the UK stock market, then, and dividends from the FTSE 100 precisely matched the rate of inflation over the period we might have expected to see a price return of 1.05^15, or 108%. That would put the index on a level of 14407 rather than 6949 today.
When assessing markets, of course, we should not look at price alone. December 1999 was very far indeed from an average starting point. The price / earnings ratio for the FTSE 100 peaked that very month at 30.5x, de-rated sharply over the next couple of years and continued to descend more gradually, but very steadily, to lows (for the time) of around 12.2x in the summers of 2006 and 2007. This of course reflected the absolute reversal in sentiment from euphoria to depression associated with the collapse in the TMT / internet stock market phenomenon of the 1990s. During the Great Recession and its aftermath the p/e had a few bouts below 10x and has now bounced back to 16.6x, slightly above its twenty-year average level and somewhat lower than the 19.1x midpoint of its low-high range over that period.
Of course what this means is that the valuation picture is much more supportive of this new record price level than it was back when we last saw it at the end of the boom-boom 90s. This is even more the case when we flip the p/e ratio on its head (1/16.6 giving the conveniently round percentage of 6.0%) and compare this resulting earnings yield to a ten-year gilt yield of 1.8% and cash savings rates mostly below that. Back in December 1999 the earnings yield on the FTSE 100 was 3.3% as against 5.5% on the ten-year gilt and, by coincidence, a Bank of England base rate of 5.5% as well.
So breaking the 1999 record is not an obvious sell signal, and tells us at least as much about market sentiment and overvaluation back then as it does about those things today. On the other hand, given how close the current valuation metric is to its long(ish) run average, we should perhaps be expecting a total return of 5% plus inflation should 2015 turn out to be an equilibrium year for the UK market – but wouldn't you just know it, we've had 5.8% of that already for the year to date. Still, a few months' stagnation now is a small price to pay should that 5% real rate of return compound us forward for the next fourteen years from 2016 onwards. Again making the frivolous but convenient assumption that dividends match inflation, that would put the FTSE 100 on a price of 13758 come the end of 2029.
Perhaps worrying about price points at specific dates is not as useful a decision-making exercise as some others, then, especially when those dates are so very far apart. With the market at its current level it is obvious that it could move in either direction from today until the end of the year. Where it stood in 1999 is really not relevant. Before abandoning the notion of record stock market levels entirely, however, let's briefly compare the positions of the other major developed-world blue-chip benchmarks.
In the red-in-tooth-and-claw corner stands the S&P 500, which has been consistently making new record highs since early 2013. (Its latest was 2115 on Tuesday, way ahead of the previous cycle peak of 1565 seen in 2007 and the dotcom era high of 1527.) In the very much bluer corner is the Nikkei 225, which rocketed up through Japan's 1980s economic miracle to a high of 38915 on 29 December 1989. Today it closed at 18797, and will need to grow another 107% before it can eclipse that level, which could clearly take some time. Also looking rather glum is the Euro Stoxx 50, marked at 3572 at the time of writing down from prior peaks of 4557 in mid-2007 and 5464 in March 2000. (As an aside at this point, some of the British commentary on the new record has pointed to Germany's DAX as an example of an index which has long eclipsed its 2000 peak. Unfortunately, however, the DAX is a total return index, meaning that dividend payments are rolled up in its value, giving it an unfair advantage against plain old cap-weighted price indices like the Footsie. The MSCI Germany index, by contrast, has beaten its 2007 peak but remains below its all-time high of March 2000.)
Again, the various record levels reached by these markets can tell us a lot about the start as well as the end points. The pitch of excitement – and in other parts of the developed world, awe – over 1980s Japan is well captured by that long-ago market pinnacle that will not likely be scaled again for many years. But it is instructive also to look at those peaks and troughs which are common to all these (huge and important) equity markets: highs across the board at the turn of the century, then again in 2007, and on the other hand the sharp falls in Q3 2011 … At times like these markets move in concert because they are thinking in concert – sometimes justifiably, sometimes not. The divergence between their performance over the last couple of years tells us that this is not happening yet. Again, there is good reason why this should be so when we consider differences in earnings, valuation, economic and sentimental factors between the different indices, but it should probably give us comfort too that the new closing record for the FTSE 100 is not part of some global rapture as it was fifteen years ago.
Apart from anything else, it never does any harm when an event like this comes along to provoke thinking and discussion. So well done to the UK stock market for beating its record, and let us enjoy sifting through the analysis before attention moves on.
Sterling Stuff
The British Isles have been living through some historically significant weeks. The Scottish referendum resulted in the continued existence of Great Britain as a nation, but only by a narrow margin. To say therefore that politics has been interesting here lately would be an understatement. But market behaviour, on the other hand, has not been terribly volatile. The stock market has remained completely range-bound. Gilt yields did reach new lows for the year to date in August, but there were never any signs of panic. In both cases prices have been moving in the same direction as other major markets.
Where there was some more eye-catching behaviour was in the currency.
Given the focus on the pound throughout much of the political campaign this is satisfyingly appropriate (and of course its international trading symbol clearly reads: "GBP"). The sharpest move against sterling came after a weekend poll published by the Sunday Times on 7 September showed a narrow lead for the Yes campaign. Monday saw the pound fall by 0.9% on a trade-weighted basis, its biggest one-day tumble for well over a year.
We should not get too carried away here: the euro has fallen further against the dollar since mid-year and shown almost equally great volatility this month, in no small measure due to the operations of the ECB. Still, the pound has experienced a material shift over the past twelve months and this begs the question: what is its fair value?
Trading ranges are one obvious place to look for guidance. Against the dollar, sterling almost fell to parity in 1985, and peaked at over $2 in 2007. The average cable rate for the past thirty years is parked in the middle of this range at $1.64. For almost exactly one half of that three-decade period, the pound has traded within ten cents either side of the average rate, which is remarkable. At its current price of $1.63, therefore, it looks fairly valued.
The euro rate is harder to pin down on this basis. From the launch of the single currency in 1999 to mid-2007 the pound held a range of €1.40-€1.70, broadly speaking; then it weakened dramatically towards parity in 2008 and has occupied a range of between about €1.05 and €1.30 ever since. At €1.28 currently sterling therefore looks a bit toppy on a purely post-crisis view, but a bargain relative to its pre-2008 levels. (The latter also applies if one charts the pound against the old European benchmark of the Deutschmark. If the DEM still existed a pound would buy 2.5 of them, below its averages over both the past twenty and thirty years.)
Fixating on ranges, however, is the proper preserve of traders, technical analysts and all those trying to make short term sense of the foreign exchange market (there but for the grace of God … ) The long run – and textbook – point of reference is the currency's purchasing power parity. The theory behind PPP is that the same goods and services should cost similar amounts in different countries, assuming perfect freedom of trade between them. In practice, PPP valuations are therefore calculated by reference to the relative costs of similar items of consumption and to inflation rate differentials over time. OECD PPP estimates for the equilibrium sterling exchange rates against the dollar and the euro are $1.38 and €1.11, so the pound is actually looking expensive on this measure at the moment.
More interestingly, perhaps, are the implications of PPP for long term trading ranges. Using the OECD estimates, sterling is about 13% overvalued against the dollar. When it hit the same kind of levels about nine years ago the actual exchange rate was nudging $1.80. In other words, the somewhat higher rate of inflation in the UK relative to the US over that period has shifted the PPP valuation of the pound by about fifteen cents. Another way of looking at this is that the high reached recently of $1.72 is equivalent to $1.87 a few years ago.
Over the last three decades the UK and US economies have exhibited identical average rates of CPI inflation (2.8%), which is consistent with the stability of the cable rate's trading range over the period. Turn to Europe, however, and the picture is rather different: over the last ten years, the annual rate of CPI inflation in the UK has on average been higher than that in the eurozone by 0.8% (2.7% as against 1.9%). Going back much further is problematic as zone-wide data is not available prior to 1997 and back in the 1980s there was the matter of the separation between East and West Germany. But the twenty year average rates of CPI inflation in France and Germany are 1.5%, compared with 2.2% here in Britain.
This means that the 14.5% undervaluation of the euro against sterling on the OECD measure pits the current rate of €1.28 against a rate of almost €1.60 when the same level of undervaluation could be observed in the autumn of 2002. So while the trading range of the currency alone might suggest that the pound is priced at a rather weak level against the euro, PPP tells us that we need to shift our assumptions to take account of the material inflation differential between the UK and Europe over the last ten to twenty years and perhaps adjust ourselves to something along the lines of the post-2008 range as the new normal.
Between the long-run PPP and the short term trading view of the world are a handful of other significant forces on the exchange rate. The desirability of UK assets, the attractiveness of the country as a place to do business, the development of views on the likely future path of interest rates and (joining all these dots together) the outlook for economic growth are hugely important considerations. But the impact of PPP, and inflation, is observably apparent.
On that basis it is not quite reasonable to interpret the recent fall in the value of the pound as a conspicuous buying opportunity. And when looking at the currency diversification of a portfolio on a medium to long term investment horizon, it is worth bearing in mind the stubborn tendency of the UK economy to inflate more quickly than its major market peers over the last decade or so, especially in the case of Europe, and to consider the possibility that this might persist.
The Bottom Line
One of the key themes this blog identified on the eve of 2014 was earnings growth. Equity valuations in the major markets had reached territory that needed to see a higher denominator in the p/e ratio or risk looking overvalued.
Since then we have seen a quarterly contraction in the US, patchy outcomes for GDP across the Eurozone and tax-related volatility in the Japanese economy. There has thus been reason to suspect that this growth would disappoint. And that is before considering any confidence impact from events in Ukraine, the Middle East and elsewhere.
So the Q2 US earnings season which opened in early July was arguably more important than most. When it opened, consensus expectations as followed by Bloomberg were for a 4.5% increase on the prior year, barely higher than the 4.2% increase in nominal GDP over the same period.
In early August, however, just as the S&P 500 had fallen back towards 1900, things were looking rather better. By this time the first 200 companies had reported their results. The increase in EPS was averaging 12%. The analyst consensus began to catch up, and the final outcome for Q2 was then expected to reach 8.2%.
Now the season is essentially over with 499 companies having reported. Index earnings for the S&P rose by 10.3% over the prior year. In price terms the 500 is up by more than 18% over the last 12 months, but supported by that bottom line growth the exuberance does not appear irrational – especially if most of the momentum can be maintained, as is expected.
There was an interesting story out this morning on European earnings growth too. With the sovereign debt crisis and the double dip recession, the outcomes for reported EPS on the Stoxx 50 have been dire. But for the first time since April 2012, there are now more positive than negative earnings revisions coming from analysts covering European stocks. In the words of one such:
"There are signs that the pressure on European companies … is beginning to abate. We're beginning to see small upgrades in earnings estimates overall for the first time in absolutely ages."
There is a connection here to recent euro weakness, and a further connection to the open mouth operations of the ECB. There is also a lot of ground to make up: simply stripping out reported losses reduces the historic p/e on the Stoxx to 16.1x from over 23x. For the S&P 500 this makes almost no difference – 18x drifts lower to 17.8x.
These markets are not a steal any more – in isolation, certainly. (Relative to bond markets they still look very cheap, but that says just as much about poor value in rates.) It has been a long wait for many to see real, underlying growth actually return to growth assets. What it needs to do now is continue.
Finding Some Direction
We are now comfortably over half way through 2014. After a shaky start, and despite persistent jitters, much of the year was actually quite undramatic for financial markets. For a while it looked as though asset prices were struggling to establish any direction. In some areas this has remained the case. But since the spring there have been signs of movement, and these have been mostly supportive of the pricing of risk.
Starting with assets which have prolonged their mundanity: gold, at just under $1,300 an ounce, is priced almost exactly in line with its average for the year to date. Despite some volatility over May and June it shows no sign of directional movement whatsoever. The story is the same for oil, which spiked up as news broke of the crisis in Iraq but has since fallen back again to about its average level for the year so far.
Government bonds have not been terribly exciting either, at least in general. The ten year gilt yield, for instance, has moved within a range of 2.5%-2.8% since mid-February and currently stands at 2.6%. On the other hand the ten year German bund yield hit a record low of 1.15% only this week, having tumbled from 1.94% at the end of 2013. In recent years this might be seen as a reaction to crisis fears in Europe, but this time round it would appear to have more to do with declining inflation and anticipation of the ECB's policy response: bond spreads in the peripheral eurozone countries have, without exception, tightened over the year to date.
In fact, credit markets generally have been giving the strongest risk-on signals. High yield spreads, as measured by the Markit iTraxx Crossover index, narrowed with conviction as the year wore on. Twelve months ago they were above 4%. Now they are under 2.5% and have closed below 2.2% in the last few weeks. At that level they were almost exactly in line with the average for 2006 when the Great Recession was a mere glint in the US mortgage market's eye. Consider also that only this month we saw a default event materialise in the banking sector of a south European country. Just imagine the effect this would have had on markets in late 2011 / early 2012. In this case spreads came off their lows but by no stretch of the imagination has there been any sign of real panic. The transformation is astounding.
Equity has found some tentative direction too. As late as mid-April, year to date returns for both the MSCI World Index of developed-world markets and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index stood at an unbeatably dull zero. But since then they have now risen to 7.3% and 9.4% respectively.
Past performance, as they so rightly say, is no guarantee of future returns. There are several "known unknowns" to contend with as the year continues. Political risk in the Middle East and Ukraine shows no sign of subsiding. Earnings growth, especially in Europe, needs to come through to support equity markets at current valuations. And the ancient phenomena of price inflation and monetary tightening could provide unsettling surprises as the quarters grind on.
While there is nothing to stop them being unwound, however, these signs of a rediscovery of market direction are cautiously encouraging. Looking forward the safest observation we might make is that the behavioural inconsistency in some asset prices should not be expected to persist indefinitely. Bears, as well as bulls, now have a little more scope to position themselves accordingly.
Signs Of Exuberance
The US shutdown is over. Japanese inflation for the year to September reached its highest level for nearly 5 years. And UK GDP data showed signs of a strengthening recovery. The S&P 500 has risen 4% since the beginning of the month, the FTSE 100 has done likewise and the Euro Stoxx 50 is up by a little more.
At the same time, the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund – the world's largest with $810bn under management – announced that it is waiting for a correction before increasing its equity exposure. (See the widely-read Bloomberg story here.)
Developed-world equity markets have had a strong 2013, to the point where it is difficult to argue on some measures, such as p/e ratios, that they offer value. Are we entering the territory of over-exuberance?
As a starting point let's have a look at what the CEO of that Norwegian fund actually said:
Our share in the stock market has been stable or falling even though markets are rising, and that means in practice that we're not using inflows to buy stocks … In general, we see market corrections more as opportunities than as threats, so it's not something that worries us. If they come, that's just a positive sign for us as an investor.
According to the interview he did say the fund was "preparing for a correction". But this is a fund whose rapid growth is underpinned by sizeable petrodollar inflows. They are not selling the market, and in the event of a correction – should it come – they intend to start buying again. In fact this sounds like the Norwegian central bank is offering the market a put!
In addition it is always worth looking at what reported earnings are doing. US news has been dominated by political and monetary goings-on, but the S&P is almost half way through the latest quarterly earnings season: 243 companies have reported an overall EPS increase of 8.4% on the previous year so far, significantly ahead of expectations. If that growth rate can be sustained as predicted the current price level would soon look much easier to bear.
Finally, the rally in risk pricing has not been universal. We took a look at India a few weeks back when the rupee was coming under heavy pressure for instance. Indeed, emerging market equity in general has underperformed its developed-world equivalent by a margin of 23% over the year to date. Selective exuberance may be irrational in some ways but it is not so terrifying as indiscriminate (and price insensitive) optimism.
The Norwegian view looks sensible: no panic, nor any excitement over the major markets at current valuation levels, and a preparedness to buy again should prices come down.
The markets which have performed the most strongly – as ever – may not be offering the most obvious opportunities. But the steady stream of positive data on earnings and economies is encouraging for their investors nonetheless.


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You Can Make a Difference
You can make a difference.
Your simple act of random kindness can impact one's life.
Your generosity to a stranger may not change your world but it can change his.
Your sincere apology can be the breakthrough that will strengthen your bond.
Your calmness in the midst of chaos can give others that piece of hope they needed in order to survive.
Your genuine smile can brighten up a person's tough day.
Your heartfelt encouragement may save a life.
Your modest pat on the back can bring out the next leader of your country.
Your honest rebuke said with affection may deliver that person from future adversity.
Your loving hug can restore a broken relationship.
Your candid morning greeting can turn a person's morning good!
Your humility to accept your mistake can gain respect from others.
Your compliment can inspire a child to be the athlete, artist or professional he always dreams to be.
Your cheerful presence may set a welcoming mood for others to be themselves.
Your willingness to share can make all the difference.
Hope this 3 minute video sparks a new perspective on how we should look at humanity.
"We make a living by what we get. We make a life by what we give." --Winston Churchill


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Episode 43: Natalya Purchase – How to build a community based on love
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
When I first approached Natalya Purchase from Thirty Plus and Fabulous about being on the show, she told me she didn't think she had much of a story. I think you'll agree with me, after listening to this episode, that Natalya has one hell of a story. One that's filled with determination, love and a vision to empower women.
In this episode, Natalya tells us about how it all began 6 years ago when she was a single mum with two babies born one after the other, two other children and a new makeup artistry business. 6 years down the track and things look very different for Natalya. Her business has grown and she now caters specifically to women over 30.
Not only that, after a moment of inspiration 10 months ago, she decided to create an online community for women aged 30 and over which has over 21,000 members.
This group is like no other that I've seen. It's a safe place where women can find and offer support and guidance to each other around all sorts of topics from personal relationships to tips on how to clean a burnt pot.
Living Life On Your Own Terms Means…
Set your focus on the dream that's in your heart. When you fall over and pick yourself up and dust yourself off you realise that even in the process of that fall you fell forward and it took you another inch closer to your dreams.
Natalya's wisdom…
- Don't despise small beginnings. Keep your vision out in front of you all of the time.
- Keep pushing doors.
- Always stay aligned to your vision.
Discover and Follow Thirty Plus and Fabulous…
- Thirty Plus and Fabulous on Facebook
- Thirty Plus and Fabulous Closed Facebook Group
- Thirty Plus and Fabulous on Instagram
Tell us what you think of this interview …
Leave a comment below and don't forget to sign up here for each new episode of Stand Out Radio delivered straight to your inbox every week!


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As a true Dutch girl, I love good bread. Artisanal and baked fresh in the early morning. In the Netherlands, we're spoiled with the best bread literally everywhere. Almost each supermarket has its own bakery inside! Unfortunately this wasn't the case in Costa Rica. You can imagine my happiness when I arrived at Pandeli and learned that Hasan, the owner of the wonderful café, was just as much into good bread as me.
Hasan started with Pandeli in 2016. After many years of success with Sofia (a Mediterranean restaurant in the same street) he wanted to bring the breakfast and brunch culture he knew from Europe to Costa Rica. After the success of Sofia and with the restaurant operating smoothly, he felt passionate to start another dream: a restaurant that would serve that same quality breakfast/brunch experience which he knew from living in Hamburg, Berlin, Vienna and London. An experience made possible through fresh, home-made bread and other top-notch imported products. Like cheese and different cuts of meat from Spain and Italy and olives from Greece. And of course, Costa Rican coffee. Pandeli even has its very own coffee brand!
Pandeli is a bakery café tucked away in Barrio Escalante, San José, Costa Rica. The smell of freshly baked bread, the best eggs and a wonderful brunch. And the owner: Hasan. Who always wears a smile on his face.


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Basenji Dog T Shirts are Basenji T Shirt Fashion Fun
Most people are not familiar with Basenji dogs but for Basenji dog owners they are a very enthusiastic group. For these Basenji dog lovers there is now a Basenji T Shirt sporting their favorite dog breed. Made in the USA by Dog T Shirt specialist Anwo Animal World the Basenji dog t shirt features a large Basenji print on the front, a similar Basenji print on the sleeve and dog prints running up the opposite sleeve. Made in sizes youth through adult the Basenji t shirt is available to all members of the family from small to large and any age from young to old. For Basenji Gifts Store lovers the Basenji T Shirt is an excellent addition for Basenji dog lover fashion fun.
Basenji T Shirt Article by Steve Forrest Writer Photography
Posted on January 23, 2014, in basenji t shirt, Dog T Shirts, dog t shirts made in USA and tagged dog breed t shirts USA. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.


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OK, so here we go with another AMAZING STAPLEGENIUS.COM(ics) ORIGIN STORY!!! :
As I was "writing" this story in my head on 24 Hour Comic Day, I decided to have SMV fight a Right-Winger who shops at the Godless Communist Co-op. This stems not from the ridiculousness of such a situation, but rather because my own local godless communist co-op who supports nothing BUT a left-wing lifestyle–including their almost comically leftist magazine racks at the checkout–would not carry copies of FALSE WITNESS: THE MICHELE BACHMANN STORY. I was told there are evidently some conservatives who shop at my co-op and they don't want to offend them…with one product…out of the thousands to choose from.
Anyway, when I came up with the scenario I decided I would name the character CLAY BERTRAND–which you may recognize as the alias for CLAY SHAW who was one of the conspirators in the JFK assassination (if you believe that kind of thing). Also cause my friend Matt Risnes and I always laughed our asses off at Tommy Lee Jones reading of the line "CLAY BERTRAND" during the scene of his arrest in the movie JKF.
Well as 24 Hour Comic Day wore on, I finally got to the pencilling/actual writing phase of this page (a couple hours in to the event) I completely blanked on what I was going to call him. My mind raced and raced, but the name CLAY BERTRAND was gone. So instead I named him REICH after KEVIN REICH, a great progressive fellow who is actually running for City Council here in Northeast Minneapolis. I wish him all the best, and should he somehow not win(unlikely) I will fully take the blame that this very comic was the stake in heart that did him in. So…don't forget to vote….whenever it is people do that. **
BUD BURGY will have TWO new pages of our CONTINUITY GUY graphic novella up this week, and they are sweet!
Also, AMADO RODRIGUEZ of MUSCLES AND FIGHTS fame did this amazing MANLY TALES pin-up:
Amado also did an equally awesome MANLY TALES pin-up two years ago at FALLCON which will finally see the light of day next month when MANLY TALES OF COWARDICE #6 is printed! (You'll have to wait awhile until it's online here)
Is that enough content for a Wednesday? See you tomorrow.
**November 3rd.


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A Red Breasted Flycatcher was at Ramore Head in Portrush, it was on rocks in the bay by the childrens play park to the east of the seawatching point. (Matthew Tickner/Dennis Weir).
The adult American Golden Plover was still at Kirkiston, it was with 100 Golden Plover, also present were a Merlin, 2 Ruff, a Snipe and 100 Skylark. 2 Wheatear were at Kearney Point. (James Robinson/Richard Weyl).
The juvenile Pectoral Sandpiper and a Spotted Redshank were in the channel at Myroe.
An adult Mediterranean Gull was at Myroe and 300 Golden Plover were on the mudflats. (Stuart McKee).
A Greenland Wheatear and 300 Pale Bellied Brent were at Faughanvale, Lough Foyle. (Stephen Davis).
2 Jay were at Circular Road in Belfast. (Stephen Maxwell).
3 Wheatear were at Bar Hall Bay in Strangford Narrows. (Derek Polley).
Yesterday an adult Mediterranean Gull was at Killough Harbour. (Tim Murphy).
Thanks to Mark Killops for these superb shots taken at Killard.