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Global warming is the long-term rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system. It is a major aspect of climate change, and has been demonstrated by direct temperature measurements and by measurements of various effects of the warming.[1][2] Global warming and climate change are often used interchangeably.[3] But more accurately, global warming is the mainly human-caused increase in global surface temperatures and its projected continuation,[4] while climate change includes both global warming and its effects, such as changes in precipitation.[5] While there have been prehistoric periods of global warming,[6] many observed changes since the mid-20th century have been unprecedented over decades to millennia.[1][7]
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report concluded, "It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century."[8] The largest human influence has been the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) in a moderate scenario, or as much as 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) in an extreme scenario, depending on the rate of future greenhouse gas emissions and on climate feedback effects.[9] These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations[10] and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing.[11][12]
The effects of global warming include rising sea levels, regional changes in precipitation, more frequent extreme weather events such as heat waves, and expansion of deserts.[13] Ocean acidification is also caused by greenhouse gas emissions and is commonly grouped with these effects even though it is not driven by temperature. Surface temperature increases are greatest in the Arctic, which has contributed to the retreat of glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. Overall, higher temperatures bring more rain and snowfall, but for some regions droughts and wildfires increase instead.[14] Climate change threatens to diminish crop yields, harming food security, and rising sea levels may flood coastal infrastructure and force the abandonment of many coastal cities.[15] Environmental impacts include the extinction or relocation of many species as their ecosystems change, most immediately the environments of coral reefs,[16] mountains, and the Arctic.[17]
Societal responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction, adaptation to its effects, and possibly climate engineering. Countries work together on climate change under the umbrella of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which has near-universal membership. The ultimate goal of the convention is to "prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system".[18] Although the parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required[19] and that global warming should be limited to well below 2 °C (3.6 °F) in the Paris Agreement,[20] the Earth's average surface temperature has already increased by about half this threshold[21] and current pledges by countries to cut emissions are inadequate to limit future warming.[22]
Climate proxy records show that natural variations offset the early effects of the Industrial Revolution, so there was little net warming between the 18th century and the mid-19th century,[23][24] when thermometer records began to provide global coverage.[25] The IPCC has adopted the baseline reference period 1850–1900 as an approximation of pre-industrial global mean surface temperature.[23]
Multiple independently produced instrumental datasets confirm that the 2009–2018 decade was 0.93 ± 0.07 °C warmer than the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900).[26] Currently, surface temperatures are rising by about 0.2 °C per decade.[27] Since 1950, the number of cold days and nights have decreased, and the number of warm days and night have increased.[28] Historical patterns of warming and cooling, like the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, were not as synchronous as current warming, but may have reached temperatures as high as those of the late-20th century in a limited set of regions.[29] Past examples of climate change provide insight into modern climate change.[30]
Although the most common measure of global warming is the increase in the near-surface atmospheric temperature, over 90% of the additional energy stored in the climate system over the last 50 years has warmed ocean water.[31] The remainder of the additional energy has melted ice and warmed the continents and the atmosphere.[32]
The warming evident in the instrumental temperature record is consistent with a wide range of observations, documented by many independent scientific groups;[33] for example, in most continental regions the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation has increased.[34] Further examples include sea level rise,[35] widespread melting of snow and land ice,[36] increased heat content of the oceans,[37] increased humidity,[38] and the earlier timing of spring events,[39] such as the flowering of plants.[40]
Global warming refers to global averages, with the amount of warming varying by region. Since the pre-industrial period, global average land temperatures have increased almost twice as fast as global average temperatures.[41] This is due to the larger heat capacity of oceans and because oceans lose more heat by evaporation.[42] Patterns of warming are independent of the locations of greenhouse gas emissions because the gases persist long enough to diffuse across the planet; however, localized black carbon deposits on snow and ice do contribute to Arctic warming.[43]
The Northern Hemisphere and North Pole have warmed much faster than the South Pole and Southern Hemisphere. The Northern Hemisphere not only has much more land, but the arrangement of land masses around the Arctic Ocean has resulted in the maximum surface area flipping from reflective snow and ice cover to ocean and land surfaces that absorb more sunlight and thus more heat.[44] Arctic temperatures have increased and are predicted to continue to increase during this century at over twice the rate of the rest of the world.[45] As the temperature difference between the Arctic and the equator decreases, ocean currents that are driven by that temperature difference, like the Gulf Stream, are weakening.[46]
Because the climate system has large thermal inertia, it can take centuries for the climate to fully adjust. While record-breaking years attract considerable public interest, individual years are less significant than the overall trend. Global surface temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlie long-term trends, and can temporarily mask or magnify them.[47] An example of such an episode is the slower rate of surface temperature increase from 1998 to 2012, which was dubbed the global warming hiatus.[48] Throughout this period ocean heat storage continued to progress steadily upwards, and in subsequent years surface temperatures have spiked upwards. The slower pace of warming can be attributed to a combination of natural fluctuations, reduced solar activity, and increased volcanic activity.[49]
By itself, the climate system experiences various cycles which can last for years (such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation) to decades[50] or centuries.[51] Other changes are caused by external forcings. These forcings are "external" to the climate system, but not always external to the Earth.[52] Examples of external forcings include changes in the composition of the atmosphere (e.g. increased concentrations of greenhouse gases), solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in the Earth's orbit around the Sun.[53]
Attributing detected temperature changes and extreme events to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases requires scientists to rule out known internal climate variability and natural external forcings. Therefore, a key approach is to use physically or statistically based computer modelling of the climate system to determine unique fingerprints for all potential causes. By comparing these fingerprints with observed patterns and evolution of climate change, and the observed evolution of the forcings, the causes of the observed changes can be determined.[54] Scientists have determined that the major factors causing the current climate change are greenhouse gases, land use changes, and aerosols and soot.[55]
Greenhouse gases trap heat radiating from the Earth to space.[56] This heat, in the form of infrared radiation, gets absorbed and emitted by these gases in the atmosphere, thus warming the lower atmosphere and the surface. Before the Industrial Revolution, naturally occurring amounts of greenhouse gases caused the air near the surface to be warmer by about 33 °C (59 °F) than it would be in their absence.[57] Without the Earth's atmosphere, the Earth's average temperature would be well below the freezing temperature of water.[58] While water vapour (~50%) and clouds (~25%) are the biggest contributors to the greenhouse effect, they increase as a function of temperature and are therefore considered feedbacks. Increased concentrations of gases such as CO
2 (~20%), ozone and N
2O are external forcing on the other hand.[59]
Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs, and nitrous oxide. As of 2011, the concentrations of CO2 and methane had increased by about 40% and 150%, respectively, since pre-industrial times.[60] In 2013, CO2 readings taken at the world's primary benchmark site in Mauna Loa surpassing 400 ppm for the first time.[61] These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data have been collected from ice cores.[62] Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO2 values have not been this high for millions of years.[63]
Global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2010 were equivalent to 49 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (using the most recent global warming potentials over 100 years from the AR5 report). Of these emissions, 65% was carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning and industry, 11% was carbon dioxide from land use change, which is primarily due to deforestation, 16% was from methane, 6.2% was from nitrous oxide, and 2.0% was from fluorinated gases.[64] Using life-cycle assessment to estimate emissions relating to final consumption, the dominant sources of 2010 emissions were: food (26–30% of emissions);[65] washing, heating, and lighting (26%); personal transport and freight (20%); and building construction (15%).[66]
The 10th Emissions Gap Report issued by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) predicts that if emissions continue to increase at the same rate as they have in 2010-2020, global temperatures would rise by as much as 4° by 2100.[67]
Humans change the land surface mainly to create more agricultural land.[68] In addition to contributing to GHG emissions, land use changes also affect global warming through a variety of chemical and physical dynamics. Changing the type of vegetation in a region impacts the local temperature by changing how much sunlight gets reflected back into space, called albedo, and how much heat is lost by evaporation. For instance, the change from a dark forest to grassland makes the surface lighter, causing it to reflect more sunlight. Since the pre-industrial era, albedo has increased due to land use change, which has a cooling effect on the planet. Other processes linked to land use change however have had the opposite effect, so that the net effect remains unclear.[69]
Solid and liquid particles known as aerosols – from volcanoes, plankton, and human-made pollutants – reflect incoming sunlight, cooling the climate.[70] From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface was observed, a phenomenon popularly known as global dimming,[71] typically attributed to aerosols from biofuel and fossil fuel burning.[72] Aerosol removal by precipitation gives tropospheric aerosols an atmospheric lifetime of only about a week, while stratospheric aerosols can remain in the atmosphere for a few years.[73] Globally, aerosols have been declining since 1990, removing some of the masking of global warming that they had been providing.[74]
In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, aerosols have indirect effects on the Earth's radiation budget. Sulfate aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei and thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets.[75] This effect also causes droplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces the growth of raindrops and makes clouds more reflective to incoming sunlight.[76] Indirect effects of aerosols are the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.[77]
While aerosols typically limit global warming by reflecting sunlight, black carbon in soot that falls on snow or ice can contribute to global warming. Not only does this increase the absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea level rise.[78] Limiting new black carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce global warming by 0.2 °C by 2050.[79] When soot is suspended in the atmosphere, it directly absorbs solar radiation, heating the atmosphere and cooling the surface. In areas with high soot production, such as rural India, as much as 50% of surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by atmospheric brown clouds.[80]
As the Sun is the Earth's primary energy source, changes in incoming sunlight directly affect the climate system.[81] Solar irradiance has been measured directly by satellites,[82] and indirect measurements are available beginning in the early 1600s.[81] There has been no upward trend in the amount of the Sun's energy reaching the Earth, so it cannot be responsible for the current warming.[83] Physical climate models are also unable to reproduce the rapid warming observed in recent decades when taking into account only variations in solar output and volcanic activity.[84] Another line of evidence for the warming not being due to the Sun is how temperature changes differ at different levels in the Earth's atmosphere.[85] According to basic physical principles, the greenhouse effect produces warming of the lower atmosphere (the troposphere), but cooling of the upper atmosphere (the stratosphere).[86] If solar variations were responsible for the observed warming, warming of both the troposphere and the stratosphere would be expected, but that has not been the case.[87]
Ozone in the lowest layer of the atmosphere, the troposphere, is itself a greenhouse gas. Furthermore, it is highly reactive and interacts with other greenhouse gases and aerosols.[88]
The response of the climate system to an initial forcing is increased by self-reinforcing feedbacks and reduced by balancing feedbacks.[90] The main balancing feedback to global temperature change is radiative cooling to space as infrared radiation, which increases strongly with increasing temperature.[91] The main reinforcing feedbacks are the water vapour feedback, the ice–albedo feedback, and probably the net effect of clouds.[92] Uncertainty over feedbacks is the major reason why different climate models project different magnitudes of warming for a given amount of emissions.[93]
As air gets warmer, it can hold more moisture. After an initial warming due to emissions of greenhouse gases, the atmosphere will hold more water. As water is a potent greenhouse gas, this further heats the climate: the water vapour feedback.[92] The reduction of snow cover and sea ice in the Arctic reduces the albedo of the Earth's surface.[94] More of the Sun's energy is now absorbed in these regions, contributing to Arctic amplification, which has caused Arctic temperatures to increase at more than twice the rate of the rest of the world.[95] Arctic amplification also causes methane to be released as permafrost melts, which is expected to surpass land use changes as the second strongest anthropogenic source of greenhouse gases by the end of the century.[96]
Cloud cover may change in the future. If cloud cover increases, more sunlight will be reflected back into space, cooling the planet. Simultaneously, the clouds enhance the greenhouse effect, warming the planet. The opposite is true if cloud cover decreases. It depends on the cloud type and location which process is more important. Overall, the net feedback over the industrial era has probably been self-reinforcing.[97]
Roughly half of each year's CO2 emissions have been absorbed by plants on land and in oceans.[98] Carbon dioxide and an extended growing season have stimulated plant growth making the land carbon cycle a balancing feedback. Climate change also increases droughts and heat waves that inhibit plant growth, which makes it uncertain whether this balancing feedback will persist in the future.[99] Soils contain large quantities of carbon and may release some when they heat up.[100] As more CO2 and heat are absorbed by the ocean, it is acidifying and ocean circulation can change, changing the rate at which the ocean can absorb atmospheric carbon.[101]
A concern is that self-reinforcing feedbacks will lead to a tipping point, where global temperatures transition to a hothouse climate state even if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced or eliminated.[102] A 2018 study tried to identify such a planetary threshold for self-reinforcing feedbacks and found that even a 2 °C (3.6 °F) increase in temperature over pre-industrial levels may be enough to trigger such a hothouse Earth scenario.[103]
A climate model is a representation of the physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect the climate system.[104] Computer models are run on supercomputers to reproduce and predict the circulation of the oceans, the annual cycle of the seasons, and the flows of carbon between the land surface and the atmosphere.[105] There are more than two dozen scientific institutions that develop climate models.[106] Models not only project different future temperature with different emissions of greenhouse gases, but also do not fully agree on the strength of different feedbacks on climate sensitivity and the amount of inertia of the system.[107]
A subset of climate models add societal factors to a simple physical climate model. These models simulate how population, economic growth, and energy use affect – and interact with – the physical climate. With this information, scientists can produce scenarios of how greenhouse gas emissions may vary in the future. Scientists can then run these scenarios through physical climate models to generate climate change projections.[108]
Climate models include different external forcings for their models.[109] For different greenhouse gas inputs four RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) are used: "a stringent mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), two intermediate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0) and one scenario with very high GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions (RCP8.5)".[110] Models also include changes in the Earth's orbit, historical changes in the Sun's activity, and volcanic forcing.[111] RCPs only look at concentrations of greenhouse gases, factoring out uncertainty as to whether the carbon cycle will continue to remove about half of the carbon dioxide from the atmosphere each year.[112]
The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate contemporary or past climates.[113] Past models have underestimated the rate of Arctic shrinkage[114] and underestimated the rate of precipitation increase.[115] Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but now agrees well with observations.[116] The 2017 United States-published National Climate Assessment notes that "climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant feedback processes".[117]
The environmental effects of global warming are broad and far-reaching. They include effects on the oceans, ice, and weather and may occur gradually or rapidly.
Between 1993 and 2017, the global mean sea level rose on average by 3.1 ± 0.3 mm per year, with an acceleration detected as well.[119] Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects that in a high emissions scenario the sea level could rise by 61–110 cm.[120] The rate of ice loss from glaciers and ice sheets in the Antarctic is a key area of uncertainty since this source could account for 90% of the potential sea level rise.[121] Increased ocean warmth is undermining and threatening to unplug Antarctic glacier outlets, potentially resulting in more rapid sea level rise.[122] The retreat of non-polar glaciers also contributes to sea level rise.[123]
Global warming has led to decades of shrinking and thinning of the Arctic sea ice, making it vulnerable to atmospheric anomalies.[124] Projections of declines in Arctic sea ice vary.[125] While ice-free summers are expected to be rare at 1.5 °C degrees of warming, they are set to occur once every three to ten years at a warming level of 2.0 °C[126] increasing the ice–albedo feedback.[127] Higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations have led to an increase in dissolved CO2, which causes ocean acidification.[128] Furthermore, oxygen levels decrease because oxygen is less soluble in warmer water, an effect known as ocean deoxygenation.[129]
Many regions have probably already seen increases in warm spells and heat waves, and it is virtually certain that these changes will continue over the 21st century.[130] Since the 1950s, droughts and heat waves have appeared simultaneously with increasing frequency.[131] Extremely wet or dry events within the monsoon period have increased in India and East Asia.[132] Various mechanisms have been identified that might explain extreme weather in mid-latitudes from the rapidly warming Arctic, such as the jet stream becoming more erratic.[133] The maximum rainfall and wind speed from hurricanes and typhoons are likely increasing.[134]
Long-term effects of global warming: On the timescale of centuries to millennia, the magnitude of global warming will be determined primarily by anthropogenic CO2 emissions.[135] This is due to carbon dioxide's very long lifetime in the atmosphere.[135] The emissions are estimated to have prolonged the current interglacial period by at least 100,000 years.[136] Because the great mass of glaciers and ice caps depressed the Earth's crust, another long-term effect of ice melt and deglaciation is the gradual rising of landmasses, a process called post-glacial rebound. This could be facilitating seismic and volcanic activity in places like Iceland.[137] Tsunamis could be generated by submarine landslides caused by warmer ocean water thawing ocean-floor permafrost or releasing gas hydrates.[138] Sea level rise will continue over many centuries.[139]
Abrupt climate change, tipping points in the climate system: Climate change could result in global, large-scale changes.[140] Some large-scale changes could occur abruptly, i.e. over a short time period, and might also be irreversible. One potential source of abrupt climate change would be the rapid release of methane and carbon dioxide from permafrost, which would amplify global warming.[141] Another example is the possibility for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to slow or shut down (see also shutdown of thermohaline circulation).[142] This could trigger cooling in the North Atlantic, Europe, and North America.[143]
In terrestrial ecosystems, the earlier timing of spring events, as well as poleward and upward shifts in plant and animal ranges, have been linked with high confidence to recent warming.[145] It is expected that most ecosystems will be affected by higher atmospheric CO2 levels and higher global temperatures.[146] Global warming has contributed to the expansion of drier climatic zones, such as, probably, the expansion of deserts in the subtropics.[147] Without substantial actions to reduce the rate of global warming, land-based ecosystems risk major shifts in their composition and structure.[148] Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the extinction of many species and reduced diversity of ecosystems.[149] Rising temperatures push bees to their physiological limits, and could cause the extinction of bee populations.[150]
The ocean has heated more slowly than the land, but plants and animals in the ocean have migrated towards the colder poles as fast as or faster than species on land.[151] Just as on land, heat waves in the ocean occur more due to climate change, with harmful effects found on a wide range of organisms such as corals, kelp, and seabirds.[152] Ocean acidification threatens damage to coral reefs, fisheries, protected species, and other natural resources of value to society.[153] Higher oceanic CO2 may affect the brain and central nervous system of certain fish species, which reduces their ability to hear, smell, and evade predators.[154]
The effects of climate change on human systems, mostly due to warming and shifts in precipitation, have been detected worldwide. The future social impacts of climate change will be uneven across the world.[156] All regions are at risk of experiencing negative impacts,[157] with low-latitude, less developed areas facing the greatest risk.[158] Global warming has likely already increased global economic inequality, and is projected to do so in the future.[159] Regional impacts of climate change are now observable on all continents and across ocean regions.[160] The Arctic, Africa, small islands, and Asian megadeltas are regions that are likely to be especially affected by future climate change.[161] Many risks increase with higher magnitudes of global warming.[162]
Crop production will probably be negatively affected in low-latitude countries, while effects at northern latitudes may be positive or negative.[163] Global warming of around 4 °C relative to late 20th century levels could pose a large risk to global and regional food security.[164] The impact of climate change on crop productivity for the four major crops was negative for wheat and maize, and neutral for soy and rice, in the years 1960–2013.[165] Up to an additional 182 million people worldwide, particularly those with lower incomes, are at risk of hunger as a consequence of warming.[166] While increased CO
2 levels help crop growth at lower temperature increases, those crops do become less nutritious.[166] Based on local and indigenous knowledge, climate change is already affecting food security in mountain regions in South America and Asia, and in various drylands, particularly in Africa.[166] Regions dependent on glacier water, regions that are already dry, and small islands are also at increased risk of water stress due to climate change.[167]
Generally, impacts on public health will be more negative than positive.[169] Impacts include the direct effects of extreme weather, leading to injury and loss of life;[170] and indirect effects, such as undernutrition brought on by crop failures.[171] Temperature rise has been connected to increased numbers of suicides.[172] Climate change may also lead to new human diseases. For example, while ordinary temperatures usually kill off the yeast Candida auris before it infects humans, three strains have recently appeared in widely separate regions, leading researchers to postulate that warmer temperatures are driving it to adapt to higher temperatures at which it can more readily infect humans.[173] Climate change has been linked to an increase in violent conflict by amplifying poverty and economic shocks, which are well-documented drivers of these conflicts.[174] Links have been made between a wide range of violent behaviour including fist fights, violent crimes, civil unrest, and wars.[175]
In small islands and mega deltas, inundation from sea level rise is expected to threaten vital infrastructure and human settlements.[176] This could lead to homelessness in countries with low-lying areas such as Bangladesh, as well as statelessness for populations in island nations, such as the Maldives and Tuvalu.[177] Climate change can be an important driver of migration, both within and between countries.[178]
The majority of severe impacts of climate change are expected in sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia, where existing poverty is exacerbated.[179] Current inequalities between men and women, between rich and poor and between people of different ethnicity have been observed to worsen as a consequence of climate variability and climate change.[180] Existing stresses include poverty, political conflicts, and ecosystem degradation. Regions may even become uninhabitable, with humidity and temperatures reaching levels too high for humans to survive.[181]
Mitigation of and adaptation to climate change are two complementary responses to global warming. Successful adaptation is easier if there are substantial emission reductions. Many of the countries that have contributed least to global greenhouse gas emissions are among the most vulnerable to climate change, which raises questions about justice and fairness with regard to mitigation and adaptation.[182]
Climate change can be mitigated through the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions or the enhancement of the capacity of carbon sinks to absorb greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.[183] There is a large potential for future reductions in emissions by a combination of activities, including energy conservation and increased energy efficiency; the use of low-carbon energy technologies, such as renewable energy, nuclear energy, and carbon capture and storage; decarbonizing buildings and transport; and enhancing carbon sinks through, for example, reforestation and preventing deforestation.[184] A 2015 report by Citibank concluded that transitioning to a low-carbon economy would yield a positive return on investments.[185]
Over the last three decades of the twentieth century, gross domestic product per capita and population growth were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions.[186] CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change.[187] Emissions can be attributed to different regions. The attribution of emissions from land-use change is subject to considerable uncertainty.[188]
Emissions scenarios, estimates of changes in future emission levels of greenhouse gases, depend upon uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and natural developments.[189] In some scenarios emissions continue to rise over the century, while others have reduced emissions.[190] Fossil fuel reserves are abundant, and will not limit carbon emissions in the 21st century.[191] Emission scenarios can be combined with modelling of the carbon cycle to predict how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change in the future.[192] According to these combined models, by 2100 the atmospheric concentration of CO2 could be as low as 380 or as high as 1400 ppm, depending on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) the world takes and the mitigation scenario.[193]
Near- and long-term trends in the global energy system are inconsistent with limiting global warming to below 1.5 or 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels.[194] Current pledges made as part of the Paris Agreement would lead to about 3.0 °C of warming at the end of the 21st century, relative to pre-industrial levels.[195] To keep warming below 2 °C, more stringent emission reductions in the near-term would allow for less rapid reductions after 2030.[196] To keep warming under 1.5 °C, a far-reaching system change on an unprecedented scale is necessary in energy, land, cities, transport, buildings, and industry.[197]
Co-benefits of climate change mitigation may help society and individuals more quickly. For example, bicycling reduces greenhouse gas emissions while reducing the effects of a sedentary lifestyle at the same time.[198] The development and scaling-up of clean technology, such as cement that produces less CO2,[199] is critical to achieve sufficient emission reductions for the Paris agreement goals.[200] Many integrated models are unable to meet the 2 °C target if pessimistic assumptions are made about the availability of mitigation technologies.[201]
It has been suggested that the most effective and comprehensive policy to reduce carbon emissions is a carbon tax[202] or the closely related emissions trading.[203]
There are diverse opinions on how people could reduce their carbon footprint. One suggestion is that the best approach is having fewer children, living car-free, forgoing air travel, and adopting a plant-based diet.[204] Some disagree with encouraging people to stop having children, saying that children "embody a profound hope for the future", and that more emphasis should be placed on overconsumption, lifestyle choices of the world's wealthy, fossil fuel companies, and government inaction.[205]
Climate change adaptation is "the adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities."[206] Examples of adaptation are improved coastline protection, better disaster management, and the development of more resistant crops.[207] The adaptation may be planned, either in reaction to or anticipation of global warming, or spontaneous, i.e. without government intervention.[208]
The public sector, private sector, and communities are all gaining experience with adaptation, and adaptation is becoming embedded within certain planning processes.[209] While some adaptation responses call for trade-offs, others bring synergies and co-benefits.[210] Environmental organizations and public figures have emphasized changes in the climate and the risks they entail, while promoting adaptation to changes in infrastructural needs and emissions reductions.[211]
Adaptation is especially important in developing countries since they are predicted to bear the brunt of the effects of global warming.[212] The capacity and potential for humans to adapt, called adaptive capacity, is unevenly distributed across different regions and populations, and developing countries generally have less capacity to adapt.[213] In June 2019, U.N. special rapporteur Philip Alston warned of a "climate apartheid" situation developing, where global warming "could push more than 120 million more people into poverty by 2030 and will have the most severe impact in poor countries, regions, and the places poor people live and work".[214]
Climate engineering (sometimes called geoengineering or climate intervention) is the deliberate modification of the climate. It has been investigated as a possible response to global warming by groups including NASA[215] and the Royal Society.[216] Techniques studied fall generally into the categories of solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal, although various other schemes have been suggested. A study from 2014 investigated the most common climate engineering methods and concluded that they are either ineffective or have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change.[217]
As of 2019[update] nearly all countries in the world are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).[220] The objective of the Convention is to prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system.[221] As stated in the Convention, this requires that greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and economic development can be sustained.[222] The Framework Convention was agreed on in 1992, but global emissions have risen since then.[223] Its yearly conferences are the stage of global negotiations.[224]
During these negotiations, the G77 (a lobbying group in the United Nations representing developing countries)[225] pushed for a mandate requiring developed countries to "[take] the lead" in reducing their emissions.[226] This was justified on the basis that the developed countries' emissions had contributed most to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, per-capita emissions were still relatively low in developing countries, and the emissions of developing countries would grow to meet their development needs.[227]
This mandate was sustained in the 2005 Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention.[228] In ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, most developed countries accepted legally binding commitments to limit their emissions. These first-round commitments expired in 2012.[229] United States President George W. Bush rejected the treaty on the basis that "it exempts 80% of the world, including major population centres such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the US economy".[230] In 2009 several UNFCCC Parties produced the Copenhagen Accord,[231] which has been widely portrayed as disappointing because of its low goals, leading poor nations to reject it.[232] Parties associated with the Accord aim to limit the future increase in global mean temperature to below 2 °C.[233]
In 2015 all UN countries negotiated the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep climate change well below 2 °C. The agreement replaced the Kyoto Protocol. Unlike Kyoto, no binding emission targets are set in the Paris Agreement. Instead, the procedure of regularly setting ever more ambitious goals and reevaluating these goals every five years has been made binding.[234] The Paris Agreement reiterated that developing countries must be financially supported.[235] As of November 2019[update], 194 states and the European Union have signed the treaty and 186 states and the EU have ratified or acceded to the agreement.[236] In November 2019 the Trump administration notified the UN that it would withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement in 2020.[237]
In 2019, the British Parliament became the first national government in the world to officially declare a climate emergency.[238] As at September 2019, nine countries including the United Kingdom, France and Argentina have made national declarations of a climate emergency. Climate emergency declarations have been made in 983 separate jurisdictions and local governments in 18 countries covering 212 million citizens.[239]
In November 2019 the European Parliament declared a "climate and environmental emergency".[240]
While the ozone layer and climate change are considered separate problems, the solution to the former has significantly mitigated global warming. The estimated mitigation of the Montreal Protocol, an international agreement to stop emitting ozone-depleting gases, is estimated to have been more impactful than the Kyoto Protocol, which was specifically designed to curb greenhouse gas emissions.[241] It has been argued that the Montreal Protocol, may have done more than any other measure, as of 2017[update], to mitigate climate change as those substances were also powerful greenhouse gases.[242]
In the scientific literature, there is an overwhelming consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases.[243] No scientific body of national or international standing disagrees with this view.[244] Scientific discussion takes place in journal articles that are peer-reviewed, which scientists subject to assessment every couple of years in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports.[245] The scientific consensus as of 2013[update], as stated in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, is that it "is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century".[246]
National science academies have called on world leaders for policies to cut global emissions.[247] In November 2017, a second warning to humanity signed by 15,364 scientists from 184 countries stated that "the current trajectory of potentially catastrophic climate change due to rising greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and agricultural production – particularly from farming ruminants for meat consumption" is "especially troubling".[248] In 2018 the IPCC published a Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C which warned that, if the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions is not mitigated, global warming is likely to reach 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) between 2030 and 2052, risking major crises. The report said that preventing such crises will require a swift transformation of the global economy that has "no documented historic precedent".[249] In November 2019, a group of more than 11,000 scientists from 153 countries named climate change an "emergency" that would lead to "untold human suffering" if no big shifts in action takes place.[250] The emergency declaration emphasized that economic growth and population growth "are among the most important drivers of increases in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion" and that "we need bold and drastic transformations regarding economic and population policies."[251]
The global warming problem came to international public attention in the late 1980s.[252] Significant regional differences exist in how concerned people are about climate change and how much they understand the issue.[253] In 2010, just a little over half the US population viewed it as a serious concern for either themselves or their families, while 73% of people in Latin America and 74% in developed Asia felt this way.[254] Similarly, in 2015 a median of 54% of respondents considered it "a very serious problem", but Americans and Chinese (whose economies are responsible for the greatest annual CO2 emissions) were among the least concerned.[253] Worldwide in 2011, people were more likely to attribute global warming to human activities than to natural causes, except in the US where nearly half of the population attributed global warming to natural causes.[255] Public reactions to global warming and concern about its effects have been increasing, with many perceiving it as the worst global threat.[256] In a 2019 CBS poll, 64% of the US population said that climate change is a "crisis" or a "serious problem", with 44% saying human activity was a significant contributor.[257]
Due to confusing media coverage in the early 1990s, issues such as ozone depletion and climate change were often mixed up, affecting public understanding of these issues.[258] Although there are a few areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is weak.[259]
From about 1990 onward, American conservative think tanks had begun challenging the legitimacy of global warming as a social problem. They challenged the scientific evidence, argued that global warming would have benefits, warned that concern for global warming was some kind of socialist plot to undermine American capitalism,[260] and asserted that proposed solutions would do more harm than good.[261] Organizations such as the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute, as well as conservative commentators, have challenged IPCC climate change scenarios, funded scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus, and provided their own projections of the economic cost of stricter controls.[262]
Global warming has been the subject of controversy, substantially more pronounced in the popular media than in the scientific literature,[263] with disputes regarding the nature, causes, and consequences of global warming. The disputed issues include the causes of increased global average air temperature, especially since the mid-20th century, whether this warming trend is unprecedented or within normal climatic variations, whether humankind has contributed significantly to it, and whether the increase is completely or partially an artifact of poor measurements. Additional disputes concern estimates of climate sensitivity, predictions of additional warming, what the consequences of global warming will be, and what to do about it.[264]
In the 20th century and early 2000s some companies, such as ExxonMobil, challenged IPCC climate change scenarios, funded scientists who disagreed with the scientific consensus, and provided their own projections of the economic cost of stricter controls.[265] In general, since the 2010s, global oil companies do not dispute that climate change exists and is caused by the burning of fossil fuels.[266] As of 2019[update], however, some are lobbying against a carbon tax and plan to increase production of oil and gas,[267] but others are in favour of a carbon tax in exchange for immunity from lawsuits which seek climate change compensation.[268]
Protests in favour of more ambitious climate action have increased in the 2010s in the form of fossil fuel divestment,[269] worldwide demonstrations,[270] and a school strike for climate.[271] Mass civil disobedience actions by Extinction Rebellion and Ende Gelände have ended in police intervention and large-scale arrests.[272] Litigation is increasingly used as a tool to strengthen climate action, with governments being the biggest target of lawsuits demanding that they become ambitious on climate action or enforce existing laws. Cases against fossil-fuel companies, from activists, shareholders and investors, generally seek compensation for loss and damage.[273]
In Greco-Roman geography, climate was thought to be simply set by klima, the angle of the midday sun defining bands of latitude which suited different peoples. Theophrastus thought agriculture caused local climate changes. Colonists expected North American weather to match latitudes, but found winters unexpectedly harsh. 18th century naturalists, starting with Du Bos in 1719, said millennia of farming had given Europe the temperate climate needed for civilisation, and cultivation could bring rapid climate improvements to America. Thomas Jefferson and others sought evidence of this warming.[274] Savants thought the earth had cooled from incandescent origins; in 1778 Buffon proposed climatic Epochs of diminishing warmth, shown by tropical fossils in the north.[275]
Following from Mariotte's 1681 demonstration that glass, though transparent to sunlight, obstructs radiant heat,[276] de Saussure showed that non-luminous warm objects emitted "obscure" (infrared) heat, and in 1774 measured heat from the sun with a thermometer in a glass-topped insulated box exposed to sunlight for an hour.[277] In an innovative 1824 memoir summarising research into heat transfer, Joseph Fourier assessed sources heating the globe, and the balancing emission of infrared radiation. He proposed, by analogy with de Saussure's device, a simple formulation of what was later called the greenhouse effect; transparent atmosphere lets through visible light, which warms the surface. The warmed surface emits infrared radiation, but the atmosphere is relatively opaque to infrared and slows the emission of energy, warming the planet.[278]
In detailed research starting in 1859,[279] John Tyndall established that nitrogen and oxygen (99% of dry air) are transparent to infrared, but water vapour and traces of complex molecules (significantly methane and carbon dioxide) both absorb infrared and, when warmed, emit infrared radiation. His 1861 paper proposed changing concentrations of these gases could have caused "all the mutations of climate which the researches of geologists reveal" and would explain ice age changes.[280] By then, as Humboldt noted in 1850, decades of climate measurements showed stability in North America rather than the expected improvement, though popular belief that rain follows the plow continued.[281]
Svante Arrhenius noted that water vapour in air continuously varied, but carbon dioxide (CO
2) was determined by long term geological processes. At the end of an ice age, warming from increased CO
2 would increase the amount of water vapour, amplifying its effect in a feedback process. In 1896, after laborious calculations, he published the first climate model of its kind, showing that halving of CO
2 could have produced the drop in temperature initiating the ice age. His source for geology, Arvid Högbom, had estimated industrial carbon output, and Arrhenius calculated the temperature increase expected from doubling CO
2. Other scientists highlighted flaws; Ångström said that saturation of the greenhouse effect meant adding more CO
2 made no difference. Experts thought climate would be self-regulating.[282][283] From 1938 Guy Stewart Callendar published evidence that climate was warming and CO
2 levels increasing,[284] but his calculations met the same objections.[282]
1950s military research found less saturation of the greenhouse effect at high altitudes. Earlier calculations treated the atmosphere as a single layer, Gilbert Plass used digital computers to model the different layers and found added CO
2 would cause warming. Hans Suess found evidence CO
2 levels had been rising, Roger Revelle showed the oceans would not absorb the increase, and together they helped Charles Keeling to begin a record of continued increase, the Keeling Curve.[282] Revelle, Plass and other scientists alerted media to press for government attention,[285] the dangers of global warming came to the fore at James Hansen's 1988 Congressional testimony.[286] Scientific research on climate change expanded, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, set up in 1988 to provide formal advice to the world's governments, has spurred unprecedented levels of exchange between different scientific disciplines.[287]
Research in the 1950s suggested that temperatures were increasing, and a 1952 newspaper used the term "climate change". This phrase next appeared in a November 1957 report in The Hammond Times which described Roger Revelle's research into the effects of increasing human-caused CO
2 emissions on the greenhouse effect: "a large scale global warming, with radical climate changes may result". A 1971 MIT report referred to the human impact as "inadvertent climate modification", identifying many possible causes.[288]
Both the terms global warming and climate change were used only occasionally until 1975, when Wallace Smith Broecker published a scientific paper on the topic, "Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?". The phrase began to come into common use, and in 1976 Mikhail Budyko's statement that "a global warming up has started" was widely reported.[289] An influential 1979 National Academy of Sciences study headed by Jule Charney followed Broecker in using global warming to refer to rising surface temperatures, while describing the wider effects of increased CO
2 as climate change.[290]
There were increasing heatwaves and drought problems in the summer of 1988, and NASA climate scientist James Hansen's testimony in the U.S. Senate sparked worldwide interest.[286] He said, "Global warming has reached a level such that we can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and the observed warming."[291] Public attention increased over the summer, and global warming became the dominant popular term, commonly used both by the press and in public discourse.[290] In the 2000s, the term climate change increased in popularity.[292]
In technical sources, the term climate change is also used to refer to past and future climate changes that persist for and extended period of time, and includes regional changes as well as global change.[293] People who regard climate change as catastrophic, irreversible, or rapid might label climate change as a climate crisis or a climate emergency.[294] One newspaper, The Guardian, has embraced this terminology (as well as global heating) in their editorial guidelines.[295] In a statement explaining the paper's policy editor-in-chief, Katharine Viner said "We want to ensure that we are being scientifically precise, while also communicating clearly with readers on this very important issue".
Oxford Dictionary chose climate emergency as the word of the year 2019 and defines the term as "a situation in which urgent action is required to reduce or halt climate change and avoid potentially irreversible environmental damage resulting from it." Usage of the term soared more than 10,000% between September 2018 and September 2019.[296]
The U.S. Global Change Research Program, the National Academy of Sciences, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have each independently concluded that warming of the climate system in recent decades is "unequivocal". This conclusion is not drawn from any one source of data but is based on multiple lines of evidence, including three worldwide temperature datasets showing nearly identical warming trends as well as numerous other independent indicators of global warming (e.g. rising sea levels, shrinking Arctic sea ice).
The amount of heat a surface radiates is proportional to the fourth power of its temperature (in Kelvin).
increasing CO
2 modifies the climate which in turn impacts ocean circulation and therefore ocean CO
2 uptake. Changes in marine ecosystems resulting from rising CO
2 and/or changing climate can also result in changes in air-sea CO
2 exchange. These feedbacks can change the role of the oceans in taking up atmospheric CO
2 making it very difficult to predict how the ocean carbon cycle will operate in the future.
As climate change melts sea ice, the U.S. Geological Survey projects that two-thirds of polar bears will disappear by 2050.Amstrup, Marcot & Douglas 2013, p. 213
TAR Working Group II Report
TAR Working Group III Report
AR4 Working Group I Report
AR4 Working Group II Report
AR4 Working Group III Report
AR4 Synthesis Report
AR5 Working Group I Report
AR5 Working Group II Report
AR5 Working Group III Report
AR5 Synthesis Report
Special Report: SREX
Special Report: SR15
Special Report: Climate change and Land
Special Report: SROCC


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"I have worked with Vista Convention Services for many years. With a show as large as the NJEA Convention, you expect only the best. The professionalism you experience from pre-con to post-con, is just unparalleled. You have a sense of ease just knowing that every detail will be handled efficiently. I hope to continue my relationship with Vista, as they are an outstanding organization!"
- Annalisa Russell, CMP NJEA Convention
Our Staff
Executive Office New Jersey
Kevin J. King
Kevin has served as President/CEO of Vista Convention Services Inc. & Vista Convention Services South since 2011. Previously he held roles of Vice President of Sales & Marketing and Director of Sales. Kevin brings over 30 years of experience to the Trade Show Industry and he believes he has the Finest Team of employees that can produce Trade Shows anywhere in the United States.
Darlene Yard
Office Manager
Darlene Yard has 47 years experience in the trade show business starting in 1972 with United Exposition Services. She was one of the founders of Vista Convention Services in 1993 and is presently Vista's Office Manager.
Theresa Barretta
Administrative Coordinator
Brian Schoeffel
Account Executive
Brian began his career in the convention market in 1981 as regional sales manager for resorts international. In 1989 Brian joined Bally's park place as national sales manager until 1994. Brian was recruited by AEX as national sales manager in 1994 he was in that position until 2008 when he joined the team at Vista Convention Services as Account Executive.
Melissa Peticolas
Melissa joined Vista's Atlantic City office as an Account Executive in 2009. She is currently responsible for business in the Atlantic City and DC/Baltimore regions. She graduated from The College of NJ with a Bachelor's Degree in Psychology. Her career began in Atlantic City as a Special Events Intern at Trump Plaza in 2001. After which, she spent 6 years at Marriott Vacation Club International (MVCI) in their trade show marketing division. Melissa enjoys spending time with her family and sitting on the beach on her spare time.
Account Executive
Ray Nelson
Ray Nelson started in the trade show business in 1969 as a decorator in the Decorators Local #1447 Union. In 1985, he became a business agent for the Union. Ray is one of the founders of Vista Convention Services in 1993 and currently is Vista's Production Supervisor.
Operations Manager
Bob Ardente
Production Supervisor
Bob Ardente has served as a lead Production Supervisor and Liaison to Show Management Groups. Bob is also responsible for the custom building and construction of MIS/AGAM displays. Bob joined Vista Convention Services in 1995.
EJ King
EJ King started with Vista Convention Services in 1993, working in Teamsters Local 331 Union. He was promoted to Manager of Vista's Rug Warehouse and also is responsible for producing some of our largest trade shows.
John Parker
John Parker started with Vista Convention Services in 1995 as Production & Design Supervisor. John specializes in decorating and show floor management.
Ed Ardente
Draftsman / Operations
Ed Ardente started with Vista Convention Services in 2010 as a Draftsman. His role expanded as an asset to Vista with experience as an Operations Supervisor in 2012. He prides his work with his attention to detail and a sense of satisfaction when the client needs are met to produce a successful event..
Jimmy McNally
General Manager
General Manager
Jim McNally has served as General Manager for our Vista Convention Services South's office since 1996. Jim is a 30 year veteran of the Trade Show Industry, previously working for Mancraft Exposition Services and GES Exposition Services.
Krystina Orwig
Senior Sales Executive
Senior Sales Executive
Krystina has been with Vista Convention Services South since 2012. Initially working in customer service, she worked her way through various branches of the office to make her mark as a Sales Executive. Now a Senior Sales Rep, she uses her tech savviness and creative flair to oversee more than 30 events a year.
Caridad Sanchez
Office Manager
Cary started as a Customer Service Representative for Vista South in 2014, her profound experience of all products and services Vista provides landed her as Office Manager in 2019. As an integral part of the VCS Office staff she oversees the day to day operations within.
Marcia Bastida
Marcia joined Vista South's team in 2019 as a Customer Service Representative. With great knowledge of all products and specs available to exhibitors, she oversees the electronic customer inquiries and provides on-site support for them at Vista's events.
Customer Service Representative
Miguelangel Ramis
Miguel has been creating floorplans and 3D Modeling-Renderings for Vista South as of 2018.
He has excellent performance using Autodesk Revit, Adobe Photoshop, Adobe Illustrator, and AutoCAD.
Julian Suarez
Julian has been with Vista since 2014. He began his career in the custom structures department and has since been promoted to Warehouse Supervisor. His attention to detail and strength in leadership is the key in overseeing all inbound and outbound shipments as well as the day to day processes for the Vista warehouse.
Warehouse Manager
Miami Operations
Jorge Hernandez
Graphics Manager/Production Manager
Jorge has been with Vista Convention Services South since 2000. He has over 25 years of experience in the industry having previously worked with Gelco Convention Services, GES, Show-Aids, and Expo Convention Services. Currently he is in charge of the Vista South graphics department and also provides on-site Production Supervision for various events.
Michael Cerda
Michael Cerda has been with Vista for more than 8 years. As a production supervisor he provides exemplary onsite support and helps make your event a reality.
Production Supervisor
Philadelphia Office
Anthony Montanaro
Director of Sales
Anthony joined Vista in 2007, with 20 years of Hospitality/tradeshow experience which prepared him for the ever changing sales and day to day operations in our industry. Now he runs Vista's Philadelphia office as well as National Sales.
Jacquelene Bonfiglio
Administrative Assistant
Joining the Vista team in February 2010 I was hired as the administrative assistant for the Philadelphia Office. Since then my roles have evolved into managing our shows and working directly with our clients to ensure their show is a success. I provide customer service to exhibitors prior to the show and on show site and make it a point to provide them with the best experience possible. I believe on building relationships with both my clients and exhibitors. My favorite saying is "Team Work Makes the Dream Work!"
Customer Service
Heather Miller
Customer Service Representative
Dave Venezia
Dave Venezia started with Vista Convention Services in June 2002 working in our Accounting Department. David also works as Operations Supervisor on some of our larger Trade Shows.

subset: commoncrawl


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Choosing the proper diaper bag may appear less exciting than choosing sweet arrangements for that room; your diaper bag is likely to be among your most often used bits of baby gear. It is worth investing study and only a little thought for your purchase. Some things to consider include design storage capacity and overall quality. Your storage capacity requirements can help narrow your alternatives. If you intend to have a large amount of extended trips or have to take heavy accessories, backpack- or carrier-type bags provide more holding capacity, but in the cost to be uncomfortable to transport for extended periods. If you are more thinking about a bag that remains and is simple to use from the way when you are controlling along with your baby, a messenger-type bag is just a better choice.
Messenger bags usually have less space in the primary area but are a lot more relaxed to transport around. For quick visits, this lower-capacity is not a problem. It is simple to shed weight the apparatus you bring through the elimination of non essentials obtaining vacation and -sized pots for diapering products for example hand sanitizer and wipes. The overall layout of a bag must match your lifestyle. Bags with flip-over flaps could keep the contents dry in wet weather, if you want to gain access to the primary area regularly however the flap can be a trouble. Additionally provide some thought towards the nails utilized on the main area as well as pockets. Velcro, photos and zippers are frequent. Velcro and photos are an undesirable decision should you ever have to start the bag discretely in a peaceful environment, just like team meeting a collection or church. Some leading-of-the-range bags employ powerful magnets to put on flaps and pockets closed.
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This guy walks into a bar down in Alabama and orders a mudslide. The bartender looks at the man and says "You're not from round here are ya?"
"No" replied the man, "I'm from Pensylvania."
The bartender looks at him and says "Well what do you do in Pensylvania?"
"I'm a taxidermist." said the man. The bartender, looking very bewildered, now asked "What in the world is a tax-e-derm-ist?" The man looked at the bar tender and said "Well, I mount dead animals."
The bartender stands back and hollers to the whole bar which is staring at him "It's okay, boys! He's one of us!"
The Story of Elijah
The Sunday school teacher was carefully explaining the story of Elijah the Prophet and the false prophets of Baal. She explained how Elijah built the altar, put wood upon it, cut the steer in pieces, and laid it upon the altar And then, Elijah commanded the people of God to fill four barrels of water and pour it over the altar. He had them do this four times.
"Now, said the teacher, "can anyone in the class tell me why the Lord would have Elijah pour water over the steer on the altar?"
A little girl in the back of the room started waving her hand, "I know! I know!" She said, "To make the gravy!"


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Welcome to Eccleston 7754 Masonic Lodge
Consercrated in 1961
Consercrated in 1961
The first meeting of the founders of which we have any indication is the 11th August 1960 at the De Trafford Arms, Croston. The first minutes we have recorded are for the 2nd November 1960 when the founding brethren present signed the forms from Provincial Grand Lodge for the founding of a new lodge; to obtain their dates of raising and clearance certificates from their mother lodges and to forward these to the acting secretary, W.Bro W Rasburn. At this same meeting the officers for the new lodge were decided.
Click here for a list of our Founders
The lodge would hold eight meetings per year: September to April inclusive, on the third Thursday of the month. At a meeting held at the De Trafford Arms on Thursday the 9th February 1961 the brethren learned that the MW Grand Master had acceded to their request to form a new lodge and that it would be no 7754. At this same meeting it was passed that provincial fees of £5-7-0 and Grand Lodge fees of £13-5-6 should be paid. Also, that the services of the secretary be deemed as payment of subscriptions, and that the master have the privilege of inviting two guests free of dining fee. It was passed that at any ballot for membership, that two black balls would exclude. At the conclusion of the meeting it was decided to hold a practice at the De Trafford Arms on Thursday 12th January 1961 at 7.30pm. At a meeting held before the practice on the 12th of January, the founders were informed that W.Bro Sir Thomas Hargreaves PGD Ass Pr GM and W.Bro T Ainsworth had agreed to present the WM Designate and W.Bro G marsh P PR GDC and W.Bro J Prescott P Pr G W to act as installing IPM and IG respectively. The rector of St Marys Church in Eccleston had given his permission for the church to be used on the lodge summons after the consecration ceremony. At a meeting held at the De Trafford Arms on Thursday the 9th February 1961, two founders were asked to approach Leyland Masonic Hall for a permission to hold the consecration there and a letter from the Prov Grand Secretary informedthem that the Provincial Grand Master could consecrate the lodge on Tuesday 30th Mary 1961, also asking that a number of founders attend the Pro Office on the 19th April. They also read out the names of five people who had made an application to join the lodge, one of which was Mr Alan W Jones who is still with us today and celebrated 50 years in masonry in October 2011. The committee then decided that all five applicants be interviewed on Thursday the 20th April at 7.30pm and invitations be sent to all the masters in the Ormskirk group, inviting them to the consecrecation. At the final founder meeting held at the De Trafford Arms on the 11th May 1961, the menu was melon, soup, halibut, turkey with new potatoes and vegetables, fruit salad and fresh cream, cheese and biscuits, and coffee, at a cost of 17.- plus 5.- towards the cost of the wine. It was agreed that Bro J Gill be accepted as a joining member and Mr W Gibbons, Mr A W Jones, Mr W H Birtles, Mr J R Shorrock were agreed as fit and proper persons to join freemasonry in general and Eccleston Lodge in particular. The lodge was consecrated and the first master was installed on Tuesday 30th May 1961 at 2.30pm in the Palm Court at Leyland Masonic Hall. The consecrating officer was Right Worshipful Bro L E Rutherford Prov GM assisted by his Wardens, and the Deputy PGM W.Bro T W Ward as Installing Officer. Along with W.Bro C J Park Ass PrGM there were 23 founding brethren, 21 consecrating and installing brethren and 129 visiting brethren present. The lodge made a donation to Masonic Charity of £50 guineas. The first four meetings saw one joining member and four initations. The fifth meeting was a double second degree and the sixth meeting saw the third degree for the first initiate into the lodge, Bro Wm Gibbons. This meeting also saw a visit from W.Bro C J Park PGD AssPGM. For the first installation they once again returned to Leyland Masonic Hall and continue to share the installation meetings between Leyland and Ormskirk. Then on 15th February 1968 a notice of motion was given in lodge atht eh lodge move to Leyland Masonic Hall, whilst staying members of the Ormskirk Group. This was carried unanimously by the brethren present. At the lodge meeting held on 21st March 1968 there was a notice of motion to change the by-laws that read that the lodge meet at Leyland Masonic Hall. The last meeting before the move was the installation of Bro John Blackstone, who went on to be Chairman of the Leyland group for many years. This was held at Ormskirk Masonic Hall on Friday 19th April 1968. The first meeting of the lodge to be held at Leyland after the move was held on Thursday 19th September 1968 when Bro R A Hart was raised to the degree of a master mason. At the meeting held on 16th April 1970 it was balloted to move the installation meeting to the September. When the installation was later moved to October, the September meeting became founders' night until the lodge no longer had sufficient founders to fill the offices. The lodge continued to grow and prosper and celebrated its silver jubilee in 1986. Bro G R Eastham was W.Master. On Thursday the 20th November 1997, after many discussions with Grand and Provincial Grand Office, severa communications with the College of Heralds and untold hours of dedicated work by Mrs Jean Oxley with assistance from W.Bro K Oxley, the lodge dedicated its banner. At that time, four of the lodge founders, W.Bros I G Parker, R Hart, A E Marsden and J Blackstone were still with us. The lodge has moved on over the last 50 years and today it is a vibrant lodge with a good blend of youth and experience. (135 members in 50 years.)
W.Bro F Clitheroe PPRGD as W.Master Designate, W.Bro A S Rutter S.W, W.Bro I G Parker JW, W.Bro O Hart Chaplain, W.Bro E Knowles Treasurer, W.Bro W Rasburn Secretary, W.Bro J T Cank PPGD DC, Bro W Bamford SD, Bro JT Holden JD, W.Bro H Bleakley ADC, Bro R Hart Almoner, Bro W Blamire Asst Secretary, Bro F Blackledge IG, Bros S Banks, M C Thompson, H Bradburn, F Robinson, W Farrington, J Blackstone, Stewards and Bro C C Smith PPrGPurs as Tyler.
If you don't know anyone who is already a member please get in touch with the membership team by contacting your nearest membership officer via the contact us by email click here.
The only essential qualifications for admission to Freemasonry are:
That you have a belief in a 'Supreme Being'. This means that you profess a religious faith. Freemasonry is not restricted to certain faiths. Freemasons meet all over the world and embraces men of many differing religions. It is usual for candidates to be 'mature men of 21 years and over', but in some circumstances younger candidates between the ages of 18 and 21 can be admitted.
To be of good character.
Introduction to West Lancs Freemasons.mp4 from West Lancs PGL on Vimeo.


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How Melatonin Affects Your Health
On those nights that you just can't fall asleep, popular wisdom suggests that you drink warm milk, and there may actually be some kernel of truth behind that. Milk contains melatonin and it may be a low level of that hormone that's preventing you from getting those zzz's. Melatonin, which is released by your pineal gland, is responsible for regulating your sleep/wake cycle; when you have a lot, it causes sleepiness, and too little makes you feel awake. Each, of course, has its place but a problem occurs if you have too much or too little at the wrong times.
So how does your pineal gland know how much melatonin to make? It's typically controlled by the circadian rhythms or your biological clock, an approximately 24-hour internal clock that affects when we sleep, eat, as well as body functions such as brain wave activity, hormone production and more. These circadian rhythms are influenced by light, among other factors.
This blog will discuss how a certain type of light – blue light – can impact melatonin production and how lower levels of that hormone could be a contributing factor to cancer and other diseases.
The Blue Light Epidemic
There's been a lot written lately about how too much screen time on devices, such as smartphones, tablets, personal computers, and other sources such as LED lights – especially late at night – can make it more difficult to get to sleep. The problem stems from the blue light emitted from these screens and light bulbs.
Blue light, which has a short wavelength (between 400 and 500 nm) and can be found in sunlight as well as artificial light, interferes with our bodies' production of melatonin. The blue light emitted from sunlight during the day helps to keep us alert and awake, but at night it interferes with the naturally occurring melatonin production which typically begins to be secreted a couple of hours before it is time for bed. If you don't have enough melatonin, it not only makes it harder to get to sleep, but it can also reduce REM sleep, which is when we experience vivid dreams and can help us better handle stress and process memories, among other health benefits.
Blue light emitted at nighttime has a greater impact on melatonin suppression than other types of lights. A study conducted by Harvard University found that, compared to green light, blue light delayed melatonin production twice as long and had a similar impact on shifting our biological clock or circadian rhythms.
Melatonin and Cancer
The shift in our biological clock and production of less melatonin could contribute to cancer and other diseases. Researchers have looked for a connection by studying shift workers. Research conducted by the International Journal of Cancer found that the prevalence of breast cancer increased 30 percent for shift workers compared to the general population of women, while other studies found an increase in prostate cancer among male shift workers. One hypothesis is that the reduced level of melatonin could be a factor in the disease. Another study, cited in The Environmental Health Perspectives, suggests a connection between residential outside light and an increase in breast cancer in some women.
Since sleep allows the body to repair cells and DNA damage, control cell growth, regulating genes and boost the immune system, among other functions, it seems to follow that any disruptions to sleep over a period of time could have a potential negative impact. Also, since melatonin helps safeguard against DNA damage and tumors, reduced levels of melatonin can be problematic. Additionally, melatonin can reduce the amount of estrogen that the body releases, so lower melatonin levels could increase a woman's estrogen level, which could contribute to breast cancer. Given the protection that melatonin can provide against cancer, some researchers are even experimenting with adding melatonin to the drug regiment in treating breast cancer.
But it's not only cancer, blue light could also be a contributor to diabetes, heart disease and other illnesses. A Harvard study found that people's blood sugar become elevated by changing their circadian rhythms. Also, poor sleep makes people more prone to accidents, becoming overweight and obese, and can worsen mental health issues.
The Popularity of Blue Light
With the health concerns of blue light, does it make sense to just avoid it? LED and compact fluorescent light bulbs, which emit a lot of blue light, have become very popular because of the energy efficiency and environmental benefits they offer. LEDs can use 75 percent less energy than incandescent bulbs, while lasting 25 percent longer. These energy benefits are becoming more important along with the growing concerns of climate change. In 2007, the U.S. government issued an energy efficiency program promoting the use of higher efficiency bulbs, making it harder to get traditional incandescent ones. With the push toward environmental and energy conservation, the popularity of higher efficiency lighting – particularly LED bulbs – will only increase.
The good news is that there is now a healthy alternative to traditional LED lights, sometimes referred to as human-centric or circadian friendly lights, that are designed to maintain the body's natural circadian rhythms and support melatonin production. Some solutions simply filter the LED light which reduces energy efficiency. Other solutions rely on the combination of multiple channel LEDs, which can offer better tunability of the output spectra at, again, the cost of energy efficiency. Aurea, on the other hand, takes advantage of highly efficient, single channel blue LEDs and converts the source light based on human physiological needs throughout the day with minimal energy lost. This provides the best of both worlds – energy efficiency and healthy output. As our understanding of the impact of lighting on melatonin production and health grows, expect healthy LED solutions to become the new normal.


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Motel Location
Apostles View Motel is located approximately 5 minutes from Greymouth.
Starting from Greymouth, go west on Smith Street and go straight through the roundabout and go over the Greymouth bridge turn right at the end onto SH6. Continue for 2.6 km along SH6 to 296 State Highway 6, Coal Creek, West Coast.


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President Barack Obama on Tuesday came to Atlanta to announce that he is sending thousands of U.S. troops and health personnel to fight the Ebola epidemic sweeping West Africa, painting the crisis as a threat to global security.
"Right now the world has the ability to save countless lives," Obama told reporters at a briefing at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "The world has a responsibility to act."
He said that if the outbreak is not stopped now, the toll could mount to the hundreds of thousands, with profound impacts on nations' economies and stability that could reverberate to U.S. shores.
Obama called the plan the largest international response in the history of the CDC. In addition to health workers, the plan calls for a military command center in Liberia to support civilian work across the region, a staging area in Senegal, and a plan to build treatment units and facilities to train hundreds or thousands of local health workers.
It also is to involve an estimated 3,000 U.S. troops. Administration statements emphasized the U.S. military's expertise in logistics, clearing the decks to move supplies and medical personnel to the right places faster. They made no mention of involvement in activities such as enforcing quarantines.
Dr. Bruce Ribner, who led the Emory University Hospital team that successfully treated Kent Brantly and Nancy Writebol and recently took in a third Ebola patient as well, said the medical staff's meeting with Obama was encouraging.
"I think he has a good handle on what the issues are in both the United States and the Third World," Ribner said. "I'm very optimistic that we're starting to get a global response that's going to get control of this outbreak."
Others were not so confident.
"It is clearly not enough," said Michael T. Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, in an interview with the New York Times Tuesday. "We should see all of West Africa now as one big outbreak. It's very clear we have to deal with all the areas with Ebola. If the U.S. is not able or not going to do it, that's all the more reason to say the rest of the world has to do it."
Criticism has built for weeks that far too little has been done far too slowly. The White House rebuffed it on Tuesday, saying several times that its response began in March and ramped up this summer. But critics have charged that for the most part, nations with advanced medicine left the blooming African crisis in the lap of ill-equipped charities, at least until Americans were infected and brought to this country.
"We're fighting a forest fire with spray bottles," wrote Ella Watson-Stryker, who is working in Sierra Leone for Doctors Without Borders. "We see entire villages wiped out… . We separate sick parents from healthy children or the reverse. We listen to the broken-hearted wails of a woman who has lost the last of her 10 children, and then a week later we see her in our triage tent with her small grandson and we watch them die."
Watson-Stryker's impassioned essay appeared recently on the nonprofit's website.
"No one is asking where the rest of the response is," she wrote. "They don't question why, after five months of talk, and more than 1,500 known deaths, the epidemic is still raging. They don't ask, 'Where is the money donors are pledging? Where are the boots on the ground?'"
People are beginning to ask, particularly if they read the news. CDC director Tom Frieden last month traveled to the affected areas, and U.S. media have filled with photos of infected Africans sprawled near death on the streets with no one to help.
Obama referenced those images and stories as "absolutely gut-wrenching" scenes that spurred action.
A World Health Organization official said Tuesday in Geneva that reported cases have risen to nearly 5,000, with nearly 2,500 deaths and warned that West Africa is on the brink of a "humanitarian catastrophe."
"Quite frankly, ladies and gentlemen, this health crisis we're facing is unparalleled in modern times," Assistant Director General Bruce Aylward told a press conference.
He said those numbers "can be kept in the tens of thousands, but that is going to require a much faster escalation of the response if we are to beat the escalation of the virus."
The WHO has so far failed, many critics have charged, to mount a comprehensive, coordinated and timely response to the growing emergency.
The organization acknowledges that the epidemic is out of control and issued a plea for more volunteers.
"Today, Liberia has not one single bed available for the treatment of an Ebola patient anywhere in the entire country," said Director-General Margaret Chan, during an announcement last week that Cuba will send 165 doctors, nurses and infectious disease specialists to Sierra Leone. "Our response is running short on nearly everything, from personal protective equipment, to body bags, to mobile laboratories, to isolation wards."
Chan said the most urgent need is the "right people. The right specialists. And specialists who are appropriately trained and know how to keep themselves safe."
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Your subscription to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution funds in-depth reporting and investigations that keep you informed. Thank you for supporting real journalism.
Staff writer Richard Halicks contributed to this article.


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With over 100 freedom-of-expression and press-freedom organisations in 71 different countries, the IFEX network has its ear firmly to the ground when it comes to tracking shifts in the global climate for media.
As we mark another World Press Freedom Day on 3 May -- the 25th anniversary of the very first World Press Freedom Day, in fact -- one concern we share is the ramping up of efforts to control and undermine independent media. It's a problem all-too-familiar to many of our members; a new and growing concern for others. It's also reflected in UNESCO's theme for the day this year: Keeping power in check: Media, justice and the rule of law.
Chipping away at the media also chips away at our right to be informed. We need access to credible information to engage meaningfully in our communities -- and hold those in power to account.
The race to control media is a race to the bottom; a race where everyone loses.
So yes, power shouldn't get to tell its own story, and the media have a critical role there. But the problem isn't just efforts from above to control the information we access. It's the Information Loops. The Bubbles. The Echo Chambers.
Sometimes these are created for us, by government efforts to contain the media, or by Facebook algorithms that limit our social media feed. Sometimes we help build them ourselves. They ensure that we hear only those we tend to agree with, voices that never make us uncomfortable, and opinions that reinforce our own. Whatever you prefer to call it, it's not good. Talking only to yourself -- it's simply not healthy.
There is never just one side to any story. Democracy needs diversity, and that means a diversity of voices, and a diversity of opinions. It can't be overstated; press freedom is essential for that.
With that in mind, we chose to mark World Press Freedom Day this year by launching a series of evocative -- and maybe slightly provocative -- images.
We think you'll agree that there is definitely something wrong with thesepictures.
We hope everyone will join us in showing media around the world that we support them, we appreciate their efforts to bring us the many sides of each story, and we value their work. Well beyond World Press Freedom Day, the IFEX network and our allies will continue working to foster conditions that allow journalists to do their work, to not simply survive, but thrive.
Annie Game is the executive director of IFEX. The IFEX network is connected by a shared commitment to defend and promote freedom of expression as a fundamental human right. For more information on free expression, IFEX's work and members, please visit IFEX.org.
Photo: IFEX.org
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A native of New York, James Viscosi now resides in California, where (popular songs notwithstanding) it does rain occasionally. This usually occurs when people are visiting from out of state.
James Viscosi has had over twenty-five stories appearing in various publications. His first novel, A Flock of Crows is Called a Murder, is, sadly, out of print, but he has a few copies kicking around if you want one.
Crossings features twelve stories at the intersection of genres, set in worlds disturbingly familiar and far distant. Science fiction, fantasy, horror, mystery, and romance elements converge to produce a whole greater--and stranger--than the sum of its parts.
Released: January 2019
Peggy Hogan
Released: November 2018
Behold, He Said
Tom Flynn
Released: November 2018
Nothing Sacred
Tom Flynn
Released: November 2018
Marc Watson
Released: November 2018
Quantum Cannibals
Nathan Elberg
Released: October 2018
The Arasmith Certainty Principle
Russ Colson
Released: October 2018
Messiah Games
Tom Flynn
Released: October 2018
Edge Of Yesterday
Andrew J. West
Released: September 2018
Japanese Robots Love To Dance
Margret A. Treiber
Released: September 2018
Ellen Mellor
Released: September 2018
The Ojunta Stone
Bill Parker


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Gluten free snacks: Glutino Pretzels
Abisaac Saraga May 23, 2010 Gluten Free Products 1 comment
|Glutino Pretzels
We always have a bag on hand, and typically the big bag.
Glutino Pretzels can be found at the Kinnikinnick Store, Superstore, and Planet Organic
How do you use your glutino Pretzels?
1 comment :
Subscribe to: Post Comments ( Atom )


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- Days Listed: 162 days
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American Impressions, established in 1993, specializes in custom screen printing, embroidery, and promotional items. Conveniently located in the northern area of Columbus, Ohio, American Impressions offers an extensive line of custom decorated apparel. Our professional staff of screen printers, artists, and service representatives, with over thirty years of combined experience can assist you with any decoration ideas to create a unique design to fit your needs.
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text: PORTLAND, OR. – October 2, 2018 – iQ Credit Union leases 2,175 rentable square feet of a Multi-Story Mixed Use Development from St. John-4, LLC located at 8191 N Lombard, Suite 102 Portland, OR. The Tenant will begin occupancy on February 1, 2019. Fuller Group's Adam Roselli, CCIM, SIOR represented the Tenant and Rob Moneyhan and Nicole Onder of Urban Works represented the Landlord in the transaction.


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Reserve price met.
Brand New
Luxembourg, Luxembourg
15 times
Learning JavaScript Design Patterns: A JavaScript and jQuery Developer`s Guide
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