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Eastern North Carolina Social Security Disability Representaives
If you have become disabled, Social Security Disability (SSD) benefits may be necessary to help you survive financially. Even for those with sufficient assets to remain financially stable without SSD benefits, we can help. You paid into Social Security throughout your working life, and you have a right to these benefits.
Almost two-thirds of the people who apply for SSD benefits are initially refused. If you have applied and were refused, do not take that as a final statement or an objective evaluation of your disability. Many applications for benefits are rejected due to errors or insufficient information being present on the application.
At The Law Offices of Kathleen Shannon Glancy, P.A., our Wilmington Social Security Disability representatives understand what language is necessary for an application for benefits to be accepted. We can communicate with your doctors and make sure they understand what medical evidence needs to be presented for your appeal to succeed.
At our firm, we will assist in your appeal. Our key role is the development of your medical evidence. We work on a contingency fee basis that is governed by statutory review process, must be approved by Social Security and generally equals 25 percent of back benefits.
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Supplemental Security Income is a needs-based program that is also designed to help people who are unable to work but may not have paid enough into Social Security to be covered under SSD. Having resources to fall back on may interfere with your receiving benefits under this program.

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Community Events
Our Lady of Guadalupe Church Fundraiser Dinner
Date: November 10, 2018
Our Lady of Guadalupe Church will have a Fundraiser Dinner, Saturday, 5-7pm, at 400 West 9th Street, in Dewey. Tickets are $10 for adults and $6 for children 12 and under. Tickets available at the door. For more information, call 918-397-0506.


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Glacier National Park Camping is always a beautiful experience that leaves warm memories. Whether you choose to camp when the weather is neutral, rainy or snowy, there's an air about the park that's refreshing. The park has magnificent mountains that grace its landscape with wildlife as real as nature itself, it's an experience better felt than imagined. Every nook and cranny of the Glacier National Park leaves you in awe.
Glacier National Park Campgrounds offer you the opportunity to watch nature come alive in the sound of quiet and rushing waters, the wind as it moves and the sight of the flora and fauna species as they own their habitats. Camping Near Glacial National Park enables you to watch an amazing array of stars from your tent, trailer or RV by brilliant-blue lakes in such a magical way that will make you wonder where you have been all your life.
You can enjoy glacier national park camping alone or with friends and loved ones. The more, the merrier. The Glacier Park Campgrounds are beautifully tucked away in and around the camp, structured to ensure that your Glacier National Park camping experience is the best.
Here, we'll highlight Glacial National Park Campgrounds and Camping Near Glacial National Park as we bring you the best of Glacial National Park camping for a delightful camping experience.
Apgar Campground – Glacial National Park Camping
Apgar Campground is a beautiful campground and the largest in the Glacial National Park Area. It is located close to the Apgar village, near the west entrance of the park. The village also has a camp store, restaurant, visitor center, restaurants and gift store. Additionally with facilities for horseback riding, shuttle services, and picnics.
The Apgar campground is perfectly situated amidst trees. This allows for privacy for campers and shade for RVs and Tent camping. It is few hundred meters away from Lake McDonald. The largest lake in Glacier Park, the Lake McDonald Lodge, and the Avalanche Lake. There are 194 campsites available, 265 of these can accommodate RVs and trailer combos. The camp also has potable water, restroom facilities, a disposable station and a shuttle service. There are trails for hiking, long strolls, and sightseeing.
The village nearby can provide you with necessary camp supplies, canoe and kayak rentals inclusive.
Fish Creek Campground- Glacial National Park Campgrounds
Fish Creek campground is the second largest campground in the park. It is located on the western side of the park and allows for reservations.
The campground is in the midst of a lovely forest with 178 campsites that are well spaced and have rooms for RVs, Tents and Full hook-ups. Hence, the Glacier Mountains serve as a picturesque background while the Lake McDonald. An excellent fishing spot, provides a pretty scenic view in front. The weather in the campground is not really predictable; it pays to be pretty prepared for any kind of weather condition. It is a perfect campground for hiking, morning and evening drives picnics, fishing, swimming, wildlife viewing and other outdoor related activities.
There are a whole lot of trees on the campsites that serve to offer shade and privacy to campers. In addition, the camp has potable water, restroom facilities, running water and flush toilets inclusive.
The fish creek campground allows campers to have fun and catch glimpses of wildlife in a natural state. It is home to about 70 animal species such as the gray wolf, grizzly bear, lynx, and Wolverine. There is also a vast range of bird species present such as golden eagles and harlequin ducks inclusive
Grizzly and black bears are common sights in the area hence the need for strict food regulations.
Bowman Lake Campground- Camping Near Glacial National Park
The Bowman Lake Campground is an ideal campground for lovers of quiet environment even outdoors.
It can be found in the North Fork area of Glacier. Mountains grace the pristine Bowman Lake area. The campground, which is just by the tree shore with trees for shade and privacy. Offers campers a serene environment to relax in its remote location. You will, however, need mosquito nets or repellents to avoid the mosquitoes that often love to camp in the lake area.
The camp has potable water from water spigots in the campground, nearby pit toilets, picnic areas and hiking trails. Canoe, fishing and kayak lovers will enjoy the Bowman Lake best. Motorized vessels with 10 horsepower or less can be used on the Bowman Lake.
Sites are available based on a first-come, first-serve basis. Trailer, trucks, and RVs are not encouraged at Bowman Lake. Mostly, because of the uneven nature of the road that leads to the campground. Turning vehicles around properly on the road is usually a herculean task
The Bowman Lake Campground also offers primitive camping based the nature of the road and the weather. Campers are usually advised to take their own drinking water along as there won't be water available in camp.
Kintla Lake Campground- Glacial National Park Campgrounds
Kintla Lake Campground is the most remote front country and car-camping campground in the area. It is located in North Fork, about 40 miles from Canadian Border and west entrance. Therefore, the campground is on the Kintla Lake in the midst of trees that provide cover, shade and a filtered view of the mountain-circled lake.
The camp is usually sparse and quiet because of its remote location. As a result, this makes it one of the best places if you need to be alone or clear your head. The scenery on the road that leads to the Kintla Lake campground is so beautiful that you'll forget the slow and bumpy ride to the grounds. There is a hand pump for potable water and the camp has pit toilets and there is a hand pump for potable water.
For those who canoe and kayak, Kintla Lake is a paddler's haven for those who canoe or kayak with the exception of motor crafts. Fisherman will love the Kintla Lake for its trout. Hikers should come boot-ready as there are day hikes and extended trips options near the campground.
The nature of the dirt road that leads to the campground does not allow for the use of RVs, trucks, and trailers. Sites are available on first-come, first-serve terms. There is primitive camping here too but it depends on the road and weather condition. Campers are usually advised to take their own drinking water along as there won't be water available in camp.
Many Glacier Campground- Camping Near Glacier National Park
The Many Glacier Campground in the famous Many Glacier Area of Glacier National Park is an all-time favorite campground and popular for all the right reasons. It is an ideal place for camping if you are interested in exploring the Glacial National Park experience.
Located on the east side of the park, amidst a scenic landscape, there are magnificent mountains at every turn. The Many Glacier Campground has 103 campsites; 41 for advance reservations and 62 for first-come-first-served terms. There are trees to provide shade for tent and RV campers. Though only 13 sites can accommodate vehicles with lengths up to 35 feet. Pets are allowed in camp.
Towering mountains surround you in nearly all directions. As a result, attractions around include Mount Henkel to the north. The towering Grinnell Point to the south and the captivating Swiftcurrent Creek that also runs to the south
The popularity of this campground means that getting a spot can be difficult. Therefore, It is recommended that you make reservations on time or try to get to the campground as early as possible to secure a campsite before it fills up for the day. Bring your binoculars to view wildlife. Hiking is done in groups, noisy groups to avoid surprise encounters with bears. A bear pepper spray will make you feel better, take one along.
Potable water is accessible in the campground with well-equipped restroom facilities and utility sinks for gray water disposal. Primitive camping is available during primitive camping season and campers are advised to bring their own drinking water
Activities –
Activities here include backpacking, birding, boating, campfire programs, hiking, touring, fishing, scenic driving, guided interpretative walks, horseback riding, kayaking, mountain climbing, picnicking, water sports and wildlife viewing with the required facilities available for use.
Grizzly and black bears frequent the area hence food storage regulations are strictly enforced. Campsites from #88- #102 are generator free sites, while other sites allow the use of generators during specific hours of the day. The closest phone service in the area is in the town of Babb, MT, some few miles away.
Mary Campground- Glacial National Park Camping
St. Mary Campground is the largest campground on the east side of the Glacial National Park. Aspen trees offer sparse shade but this is complemented with mountain views of East Flattop, Red Eagle, and Singleshot Mountains.
St. Mary takes reservations (it is actually one of the only two campgrounds in Glacier Park that does this) and free sites can be gotten on the basis of first-come, first-served. There are also times when all the sites are available on the basis of first-come, first-served. It all depends on when the camp opens. As a result, primitive camping is available as well as winter camping. Winter camping is free but requires a valid park entrance pass. Therefore, campers are also advised to come with their own drinking water for either primitive or winter camping. The campground has potable water. There also is restroom facilities provide flush toilets and sinks with running water.
The St. Mary Entrance is the gateway to the Going To The Sun Road, a world-famous attraction in Glacier Park. The campground is less than a mile from St Mary town which has a general store, grocery store, camp store, gas, cabins, hotels, and restaurants. There's also a free shuttle service to take you to Going To The Sun Road, the Logan Pass and the Logan Pass Visitor Centre.
What the St. Mary Campground lacks in shade, it makes up for it with aspen trees and beautiful views of the Glacier Park Mountains located in the area. This makes it an ideal site for hiking, sightseeing and taking tours along scenic trails.
Two Medicine Campground- Glacier National Park Campgrounds
The Two Medicine Campground can be found in the impressive Two Medicine Area of the Glacier National Park. A place to experience what real camping feels like. It's one of the best-kept secrets the Glacier National Park has in its depths. Hence, the landscape is breathtaking, the scenery is incredible and the feel of being here is indescribable.
Located about 13 miles of the East Glacier town. It offers endless hiking opportunities in and around the famed Two Medicine Lake. Famous mountains that dot the landscape include the Painted Teepee Mountain, Sinopah Mountain, Mount Helen and Lone Walker Mountain, Grizzly Mountain, and the Rising Wolf Mountain. In fact, the Glacier National Park campground is directly under the Rising Wolf Mountain. The tallest mountain in the area.
So, this is a perfect camping spot for mountain lovers. Therefore, there's no end to the beauty of the views; the Two Medicine Mountains to the west, the North Shore Trail and the Pitamakan Trail, gateways to some the most spectacular hikes in Glacier National Park.


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An approach for estimating time-variable rates from geodetic time series
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There has been considerable research in the literature focused on computing and forecasting sea-level changes in terms of constant trends or rates. The Antarctic ice sheet is one of the main contributors to sea-level change with highly uncertain rates of glacial thinning and accumulation. Geodetic observing systems such as the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and the Global Positioning System (GPS) are routinely used to estimate these trends. In an effort to improve the accuracy and reliability of these trends, this study investigates a technique that allows the estimated rates, along with co-estimated seasonal components, to vary in time. For this, state space models are defined and then solved by a Kalman filter (KF). The reliable estimation of noise parameters is one of the main problems encountered when using a KF approach, which is solved by numerically optimizing likelihood. Since the optimization problem is non-convex, it is challenging to find an optimal solution. To address this issue, we limited the parameter search space using classical least-squares adjustment (LSA). In this context, we also tested the usage of inequality constraints by directly verifying whether they are supported by the data. The suggested technique for time-series analysis is expanded to classify and handle time-correlated observational noise within the state space framework. The performance of the method is demonstrated using GRACE and GPS data at the CAS1 station located in East Antarctica and compared to commonly used LSA. The results suggest that the outlined technique allows for more reliable trend estimates, as well as for more physically valuable interpretations, while validating independent observing systems.
KeywordsTime-variable trend Kalman filter Non-convex optimization problem Colored noise
1 Introduction
Antarctica is one of the largest contributors to global sea-level rise (IPCC 2014), making the knowledge of its ice-mass change of considerable societal and ecological importance. The GRACE satellite gravimetry mission has provided an extremely useful tool for observing the global integral effects of mass changes. Nevertheless, Antarctic ice-mass change estimates derived from GRACE remain challenging due to, among others, the effect of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA, Velicogna and Wahr 2006). GPS vertical site displacements are gaining importance in constraining GIA-induced rates in Antarctica (Whitehouse et al. 2012; Ivins et al. 2013; Sasgen et al. 2013; van der Wal et al. 2015).
Normally, all the above-mentioned processes related to sea-level involving ice mass and GIA rates are estimated as constant trends along with deterministically modeled seasonal components (e.g., Velicogna et al. 2014; Gunter et al. 2014; Shepherd et al. 2012) without allowing for inter-annual and seasonal variability, which might not have captured the true trend estimates (Davis et al. 2012). Accurately modeling known sources of temporal variation is crucial for interpreting geodetic data properly, especially because of large inter-annual variations in the Antarctic climate (Ligtenberg et al. 2012). Moreover, very few geophysical processes are exactly periodic; instead there are signal constituents which fluctuate around a reference value, e.g., around a 1-year period with slightly varying amplitudes. Therefore, modeling seasonal processes using traditional deterministic fitting methods may not provide very accurate results. In this study, we model them stochastically within a KF framework allowing for physically natural variations of signal constituents in time. This idea was brought to the geodetic community by Davis et al. (2012) while being a well-established technique in econometrics since the 1980s (Harvey 1989). However, Davis et al. (2012) assumed the statistical noise parameters to be known. Moreover, the econometric literature lacks methods for a robust estimation of the noise parameters as the optimization problem to be solved for those parameters turns out to be non-convex (i.e., there can be multiple local minima).
Therefore, the goal of this study is to provide a robust tool for estimating time-variable trends from geodetic time series. For this purpose, detailed descriptions are provided on how different components, such as trend and known periodicities, can be modeled stochastically and put into KF form (Sect. 2). Special attention is paid towards carefully estimating the noise parameters, which is an essential step in the KF. The presented statistical framework is appropriate to any time series, but is demonstrated in this study on GRACE and GPS time series that have been widely used in the context of trend estimation (Sect. 3). A spectral analysis of the results shows that the developed tool yields more reliable estimates compared to those derived from commonly used LSA. Moreover, the technique presented allows different geodetic time series to be analyzed for validation purposes.
2 Methodology
The theory described below is largely based on Durbin and Koopman (2012) and Harvey (1989).
As we demonstrate the methodology on GRACE and GPS data, Sects. 2.1–2.4 are relevant for both types of datasets, whereas Sect. 2.5 is devoted to the analysis of features typical of GPS time series. Section 2.6 summarizes the major steps of the time-series analysis by the suggested method.
2.1 Trend modeling
2.2 State space model
2.3 Kalman filter and smoother
2.4 Estimation of hyperparameters
2.4.1 Optimization
The IP algorithm is used because it accounts for a potential non-convexity, and the problem we are dealing with is non-convex. If an optimization problem is non-convex, there can be multiple local minimum points with objective function values different from the global minimum (Horst et al. 2000). Finding a globally optimal solution of a multivariate objective function that has many local minima is very challenging. One of the main difficulties is the choice of the initial guess for the starting point \({\psi _{0}}\) (initial solution) that is required for the optimization. If the initial guess is sufficiently close to a local minimum, the optimization algorithm terminates at this local minimum (Fig. 1). Visualizing the objective function is helpful to choose a suitable initial guess, but the problem we are describing is at least four-dimensional. Dimensionality may further increase, for instance, if other periodic constituents are considered (e.g., the S2 tidal alias in GRACE data analysis); another example of a higher dimension is discussed in Sect. 2.5.3. Therefore, our approach is to compute the objective function for a number of starting points and use the solution in further computations that provides the smallest objective function value and thus is more likely to be a global minimum (Anderssen and Bloomfield 1975). The question, however, is how to define suitable starting points that allow all or as many as possible local minima to be identified, which in turn will increase the probability of finding the global minimum. For this, a set of uniformly distributed starting points is randomly generated within a finite search space. As a result, the same optimal solution is obtained after each run despite the fact that the method is heuristic, ensuring the existence of an optimal solution within the predefined bounds.
2.4.2 Limiting the parameter space
In the following, we limit the parameter search space in the context of a non-convex optimization problem to improve the chance of finding a global optimum. First, all lower bounds are set equal to zero. The upper bounds are chosen from LSAs to the given data as follows. We fit the model described by Eq. (1) to the data, and use the variance of the postfit residuals as an upper bound for \(\sigma ^2_{\varepsilon }\) in Eq. (9). This choice is justified, since LSA-residuals contain the unmodeled signal, measurement noise and possible fluctuations in the modeled terms (in our case in trend, annual and semi-annual components), whereas \(\sigma ^2_{\varepsilon }\) in Eq. (9) does not include possible fluctuations in the modeled terms, because we model them stochastically as described in Sect. 2.1. Similarly, the upper bounds for annual and semi-annual terms are found. After subtracting a deterministic trend from the time series, annual and semi-annual signals are simultaneously estimated using LSA within a sliding window that has a minimum timespan of 2 years. The maximum size of the sliding window corresponds to the length of the time series used. Done this way, a sufficient amount of annual and semi-annual amplitudes are estimated and the corresponding variances are used as upper bounds for \(\sigma ^2_{\varsigma _1}\) and \(\sigma ^2_{\varsigma _2}\), respectively. The choice of the upper bounds is justified by the fact that the standard deviation of the signal computed for different time intervals is never smaller than the process noise of this signal, since here standard deviations indicate possible signal variations within the considered time span, whereas process noise represents the signal variations from one time step to the next only. Moreover, these upper bounds still include possible variations within the trend component supporting the idea of being the upper limits for the process noise associated with estimated harmonics. Regarding the process noise associated with the trend component \(\sigma ^2_{\zeta }\), no upper bound is set.
By bounding the search space for \(\psi \) in the manner described above and by setting the amount of start points to 200 (chosen by trial and error), we obtain after each run numerically the same optimal solution. To substantiate the reliability of the estimated hyperparameters, we additionally analyze the amplitude distribution of the estimated signal constituents (Eq. 8) as a function of frequency. Investigating whether the amplitude spectrum shows a peak around the expected frequency allows us to draw conclusions on the reasonableness of the estimated noise parameters, since they determine the estimation of the signal constituents.
To illustrate the idea of the analysis in the spectral domain, an example based on GPS time series, which will be described later, is presented in Fig. 2. To produce this figure, we first estimated noise parameters stored in \(\psi \) (Eq. 17) with and without limiting the parameter space for \(\sigma ^2_{\varepsilon }, \sigma ^2_{\varsigma _1}\) and \(\sigma ^2_{\varsigma _2}\). For these two cases, we then estimated the state vector \(\alpha _t\) and computed the amplitude spectrum for the rate \(\beta _t\), annual \(c_{1,t}\) and semi-annual \(c_{2,t}\) estimates. Figure 2a provides an indication of reasonably estimated hyperparameters, since the amplitude spectrums of the corresponding signal estimates show significant peaks over the expected frequencies and there are no significant peaks elsewhere. For comparison, Fig. 2b provides an example generated without limiting the parameter space, where the hyperparameter associated with the annual signal is overestimated including variations of the rate/slope component while the amplitude of the slope has an unrealistically small magnitude of zero mm. This example also emphasizes the importance of limiting the parameter search space within a non-convex optimization problem.
The solution we obtain for the hyperparameters \(\psi \) is referred to as an unconstrained solution hereinafter, since only the search space for the global solver has been limited, but no restrictions are applied yet to the parameters themselves.
2.4.3 Constrained optimization
Introducing constraints on some of the noise parameters may improve the chance of finding a global minimum within a non-convex optimization. Sometimes, we have prior knowledge about some noise parameters, e.g., we know that \(\sigma ^2_{\varepsilon }\) must be larger than some threshold. This inequality constraint can be easily applied within the numerical optimization (Nocedal and Wright 2006). However, if the introduced constraints are not supported by the data, applying them may significantly change the estimated noise parameters and, in turn, the estimate of the state vector \(\alpha _t\), yielding erroneous geophysical interpretations. As we are dealing with a non-convex problem, the testing procedure proposed in Roese-Koerner et al. (2012) cannot be applied. Therefore, we outline a method to verify whether the data support the applied constraints, paying particular attention to non-convexity.
By doing so, we avoid using constraints that are too strong and not supported by the data, but still try to find a compromise between a statistically based and a physically meaningful estimate.
The analysis of GPS time series often differs substantially from that of GRACE data. GRACE time series have a sampling period of typically one month, data gaps are sparse, and noise correlations between the monthly data (if there are any) are negligible. GPS data are known to contain colored (temporally correlated) observational noise that cannot be neglected (Williams 2003a). Moreover, GPS time series are frequently unevenly spaced in time and may contain large data gaps as well as outliers. In the following sections, we describe how we handle these different features present in the GPS data.
2.5.1 Pre-processing
A KF can easily deal with unevenly distributed observations. However, equally spaced data will be beneficial when we later define the state space model for temporally correlated noise. Therefore, we generate equally spaced data by filling short gaps with interpolated values and long gaps with NaN values. We define a gap to be long if more than seven consecutive measurements are missing, i.e., more than 1 week of daily GPS data.
Since the KF is not robust to outliers, they should be removed beforehand. Outliers are detected here by a Hampel filter according to Pearson (2011). The measurements are removed from the time series where horizontal or vertical site displacements of a GPS station were identified as outliers.
2.5.2 Colored noise
The postfit residuals obtained after fitting a deterministic model to the data represent colored noise. It is important to understand that it is only an approximation of the observational noise, since the residuals contain a potentially unmodeled time-dependent portion of the signal. To parameterize this approximate colored noise using an ARMA(p, q) model, we need to determine how p and q should be chosen. For this, we follow the idea of Klees et al. (2003) and use the ARMA(p, q) model that best fits the noise power spectral density (PSD) function. Thus, using the PSD function of the approximate colored noise we estimate the pure recursive part of the filter (MA) and non-recursive part of the filter (AR) by applying the standard Levinson–Durbin algorithm (Farhang-Boroujeny 1998). The parameters of the MA and AR models are computed using a defined p and q, which are then used to compute the PSD function of the combined ARMA(p, q) solution. To control the dimension of the state vector \(\alpha _t\) we limit the maximum order of the ARMA process to 5, which means we compute the PSD for ARMA(p, q) generated for \(p,\,q \in \{0, \ldots , 5\}\) (including two special cases AR(p) and MA(q)). Then, we use GIC (Generalized Information Criterion) order selection criterion to select the PSD of the ARMA model that best fits the PSD of the approximate colored noise. The p and q of this ARMA model define the number of \(\phi \) and \(\theta \) coefficients used to parameterize colored noise \(\varepsilon _t\). More details about the use of ARMA models in the context of GPS time series can be found in accompanying Supplement.
2.5.3 State space model
2.6 Summary of the developed framework
The flow diagram in Fig. 3 outlines the major steps of the time-series analysis by the suggested method. The method can be applied to any equally spaced data; it can cope with missing observations and different stochastic properties of the data. Once the components of interest are defined in the state vector, the corresponding state space model with all required matrices can be formulated. If present, time-correlated observational noise can be modeled using a general ARMA model that subsumes two special cases (AR and MA) as described in Sect. 2.5.3 or in more detail in the accompanying Supplement. Another representation of the colored observational noise within the state space formalism can be found in, e.g., Dmitrieva et al. (2015), in which a linear combination of independent first-order Gauss–Markov (FOGM) processes is used to approximate the noise.
Once in the state space form, the parameters governing the stochastic movements of the state components are estimated by numerically optimizing likelihood. The likelihood function is computed using the by-products of the Kalman filter (Eq. 16). Finding an optimal solution as demonstrated in Sect. 2.4 is the key of the proposed methodology, since it ensures optimal estimates for the hyperparameters, which in turn determine the estimates of the signal constituents. Limiting the parameter search space (Sect. 2.4.2), as well as imposing constraints (Sect. 2.4.3) that are supported by the data, both increase the likelihood of getting the optimal solution. Once the hyperparameters are estimated, the Kalman filter and smoother can be used (Sect. 2.3) for obtaining the best estimate of the state at any point within the analyzed time span. This can be important for investigating the way in which a component such as trend has evolved in the past.
3 Application to real data
3.1 Data
The GPS data at CAS1 are processed similar to Thomas et al. (2011). The GPS time series contains two step-like offsets (in Oct. 2004 and Dec. 2008) within the chosen estimation period, which is Feb. 2003 to Dec. 2010. For the same period, GRACE monthly time series are computed at Delft University of Technology (Farahani 2013) complete to spherical harmonic degree/order 120 and optimally filtered using a Wiener filter (Klees et al. 2008). Stokes coefficients representing the monthly gravity fields were converted into vertical deformations following Kusche and Schrama (2005) making GRACE data comparable with GPS observations. This conversion is done for potential validation which, as will be shown later, leaves room for physical interpretations if the proposed methodology is applied.
3.2 Results
Results derived by modeling signal constituents stochastically within the KF framework are called hereinafter KF results for brevity. We show plots in the time and frequency domain for GPS and GRACE time series at the same geolocation. Both time series represent vertical deformations due to GIA and the elastic response of the solid Earth to the surface load. Before discussing the results it is worth noting that what is called trend (in mm) thereafter is the integrated random walk part of the signal (\(\mu _{t}\) in Eq. 8) with deterministically modeled intercept and time-varying slope (or rate) in mm/year introduced as \(\beta _{t}\) in Eq. (8).
For GRACE time series, we estimate the slope, and annual, semi-annual and tidal S2 periodic terms deterministically using LSA and stochastically using the KF framework. In both cases, the intercept is co-estimated deterministically. Figure 4 shows vertical deformation derived based on GRACE data, the LSA fit and the KF fit, as well as estimated trends using different techniques. Error bars represent one-sigma uncertainties. Figure 4a, b serves as a visual inspection and indicate that the model which allows signal components to vary in time represents the data considerably better than the model that assumes a linear trend and exactly periodic processes with constant amplitudes.
In the context of slope estimation, we find it worth noting that, especially for Antarctic GPS site velocities that are used to constrain GIA rates, each erroneously estimated millimeter of vertical deformation corresponds to significantly erroneous ice-mass change estimates (Gunter et al. 2014) highlighting the need to estimate these rates as accurately as possible.
To validate the results based on the proposed methodology from the geophysical point of view, we plot the estimated time-varying rates derived from GPS and GRACE time series, respectively, in Fig. 9. The known accumulation anomaly event from 2009 is clearly evident. In this year, GPS and GRACE observe maximum subsidence of the solid Earth as an immediate response to the high levels of accumulation within the analyzed time period. Although the two observing systems do not agree perfectly, they do observe similar processes starting from 2005. In fact, there are a number of different factors to be considered when comparing GPS and GRACE time series, such as the spatial resolutions of the data sets (GPS-derived deformations are discrete point measurements, while GRACE results represent a spatial average), the effects of geocenter motion should be considered when converting GRACE coefficients into vertical deformation, etc. Though the validation of different geodetic observing techniques is beyond the scope of this study, we feel the proposed methodology provides better interpretation opportunities (Fig. 9) than the traditional LSA approach. It should also be noted that once GRACE and GPS time series are corrected such that they represent the same signal, it is straightforward to combine them within the described approach. However, the GRACE and GPS time series are used in this study only to validate the proposed methodology, and their data combination is also beyond the scope of this paper. It is also worth mentioning here that we have chosen this GPS station because of the existing prior knowledge about the geophysical process (accumulation anomaly) that took place there in 2009. Two different observing systems, GPS and GRACE, detected this geophysical process because of its high magnitude. While estimating time-variable rates, the time series from these two different observing systems were treated in two different ways with respect to the observational noise model used: white noise for GRACE and colored noise for GPS time series. Nonetheless, the time-varying trends derived from the GRACE and GPS time series show the same behavior. We therefore interpret this behavior as a signal and not as potentially mismodeled observational noise.
The target of this study is to provide a robust tool for reliable trend estimation. The robustness of the proposed methodology is determined by finding an optimal minimum that is necessary for estimating the noise parameters (Sect. 2.4) which, in turn, are the key for reliable rate estimates. To demonstrate the role of the noise parameters on the estimated signal components, we use the example shown in Fig. 2. Based on the GPS time series, we estimate the noise parameters by limiting the parameter search space for finding an optimal solution (as it is done through this section) and without limiting the parameter search space. Using these differently estimated noise parameters, we estimate modeled signal constituents. In Fig. 10, we illustrate the results for the slope and the annual component in the time domain (there is no evident difference in the semi-annual component, as can be seen in Fig. 2). By limiting the parameter search space, the process noise for the slope and annual component is estimated to be 0.37 mm/year and 0.06 mm, respectively. The corresponding estimates are shown in Fig. 10a suggesting a correlation between both the changes in the rates of vertical deformation and their annual variability. This is physically reasonable, as both are responses to the changing climate.
If the parameter search space is not limited, the process noise for slope and annual signal is \(5.75\times 10^{-8}\) mm/year and 0.34 mm, respectively. Figure 10b shows the corresponding plots. Because the slope is not allowed to vary much, it is comparable with the LSA estimate shown in Fig. 7b. However, the variance of the annual component is much higher than the one used in Fig. 10a, which is why the corresponding annual amplitude in Fig. 10b shows an erratic behavior.
We could also assume the noise parameters to be known, e.g., by modeling the slope deterministically and using a fixed standard deviation for the annual signal. The higher we set this standard deviation the more we force the annual signal to absorb long-term variations and possible variations originating from other sources, yielding wrong interpretations. Therefore, we recommend to limit the parameter search space as described in Sect. 2.4.2 and to verify potentially existing prior knowledge about noise parameters according to Sect. 2.4.3 to ensure the reliability of the estimated signal constituents. Moreover, we suggest modeling all signal components stochastically to ensure a reliable noise parameter estimation, unless there are good reasons not to do so.
4 Conclusions
We developed a robust method for estimating time-variable trends from geodetic time series. This method is more sophisticated compared to commonly used LSA, as it allows the rate and seasonal signals to change in time. The advantages are twofold: more reliable trend estimation, because (i) there is no contamination by seasonal variability and (ii) it accounts for any long-term evolution in the time series, which would appear as noise when modeled as a time-invariant slope.
The right choice of the noise parameters is at the heart of the proposed methodology. We suggested a method which allows a robust estimation of the noise parameters. We verified the reliability of the estimates using spectral analysis. The plausibility of the estimated time-varying rates was additionally confirmed by existing geophysical knowledge. Furthermore, the results estimated using the KF framework were visually compared with those derived using LSA in the time and frequency domains. Visual inspections and RMS misfits suggested that the KF outperforms LSA. The proposed methodology is not limited to GPS and GRACE time series, but can be used for any other time series.
Our results suggest that potential changes in rates may yield significantly different trends when post-processed compared to the deterministic linear trend. Indeed, the longer the time series, the more deviations can be expected from the deterministic linear trend assumption as well as from the constant seasonal amplitudes and phases. Moreover, any change in the trend term reflects an acceleration, making the stochastic approach much more flexible than the deterministic one. It can therefore be reasonable to consider signal as a stochastic process in particular when analyzing climatological data.
The authors would like to thank Matt King for providing GPS data and comments on a draft version of this manuscript, and also H. Hashemi Farahani and P. Ditmar for DMT2 optimally filtered monthly GRACE solutions. The authors would also like to thank two anonymous reviewers and the editor S. Williams for their insightful comments.The freely available software provided by Peng and Aston (2011) was used as an initial version for the state space models. MATLAB's Global Optimization Toolbox along with the Optimization Toolbox was used to solve the described optimization problem. This research was financially supported by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) as part of the New Netherlands Polar Programme.
Supplementary material
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Copyright information
Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.


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« January 11, 2018 | Main | January 13, 2018 »
January 12, 2018
Blockchain for Beginners
More here.
January 12, 2018 at 12:01 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
I have an Iceland jones after watching Season 4 of "Black Mirror"
One of the six new episodes, "Crocodile" (above), was filmed in Iceland, which looks so beautiful and alluring, it made me want to teleport myself there instantly.
Once upon a time, perhaps 10-15 years ago, the last time I seriously considered taking a trip outside the U.S., Iceland was where I was headed, but I lost my mojo somewhere along the way.
January 12, 2018 at 10:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Limited-Edition Nesting Bowls — Nicholas Collins
Use your illusion.
From the website:
All of Nicholas Collins' works are limited edition, his fascinations combining opaque and semi-translucent glass with cutting edge technology and finishing tools.
Many of his pieces follow a theme of optical illusion, his ethos being to continually push the boundaries of manufacture and traditional glass making to produce more and more sophisticated pieces and designs.
This is a set of three opaque black & white glass nesting bowls.
These unique bowls are made using a water-jet cutting technology and CAD drawing and design.
Dimensions: Large bowl is 44cm Ø, Medium bowl 30cm Ø, small bowl 16cm Ø.
January 12, 2018 at 08:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)


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About The Poem
Down in West Haven, where my family live, we are about a mile from the ocean or actually Long Island Sound. The Sound is very much part of our lives. Long ago, on foggy nights, people could lie in bed and listen to the ships talking to each on the sound. It was a conversation that went on all night among the various tankers and other ships. You'd hear a long, low booming sound followed by a higher booming sound followed by a series of short, high whistling sounds.
In this poem, I talk about a glimpse of an old wino and his dog. I wasn't making judgments at all, too innocent maybe. I had never been drunk and now I can't imagine the misery that old drifter must have been in. The sun, the sand, the happy dog, they all sort of blend in and I imagined what it must be like to die that wine death in a stupor. But like I said, I was pretty clueless and just looked at the whole thing as a little snapshot. At least the dog and I must have been happy.
Sand and Sun
a dog ambles across
scathing sand with wagging tail
head bowed before the booming breakers
turning clumsily on four legs to
catch the brilliant sun, full on
a friendly canine face
pale tongue
when old weary legs lie stretched from
a wall worn by sand and wind
feet encased in old black lace-ups
feet tired
and sun makes tired and wine makes tired
and eyes make tired
Sleep - grit has lost its teeth
wind is like warm water -
tingling mixture
barking happily


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SPOILERS AHOY! - A bed full of lemons? Quake vs Yo-yo? Graviton vs. Thanos? Madness!
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. Season 5 Episode 20 - The One Who Will Save Us All
Directed by Cherie Gierhart, Written by Brent Fletcher
One of the best things about this show is how in any given episode, a bunch of things can be resolved, but you always come back to the original problem staring you right in the face. Despite all of the plot movement, when this episode closed, we are still left with the team struggling to break the time loop and stop whoever The Destroyer of WorldsGeneral Talbot...


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The Berkeley College men's basketball team has reached the top of the Hudson Valley Intercollegiate Athletic Conference mountain yet again – defeating the Blue Angels of the College of New Rochelle by a score of 92-82 Sunday afternoon in the conference title game. The contest took place at the Blue Angels' Wellness Center on the campus of the College of New Rochelle. With the victory, Berkeley has now won five HVIAC crowns in a row dating back to the 2014-2015 season. The Knights – winners of 14 consecutive games - currently own a mark of 21-4 on the season. Additionally, with today's grueling win – the Knights are headed back to the USCAA Division II National Men's Basketball tournament, with a chance to win the program's fifth straight National title. Following today's tremendous victory, Head Coach Jonathan Pena spoke about his team's resiliency.
"Our team came into this contest today fully aware that we would be facing a hungry team that would be drawing from the energy of its home crowd, and I felt we did a good job of never letting the environment get to us," Pena said. "Even when we fell behind by nine points, the guys never stopped believing in one another. I have to give a ton of credit to the Blue Angels, because they really pushed us to our limits today – and at the same token – I have to congratulate and praise our guys for being able to withstand New Rochelle's stellar effort. We've made the college proud by showing grit, resiliency, and determination – and now we'll shoot towards our final goal of winning another National title. We know the teams at Penn State Fayette will be shooting to try and thwart us. Our job is to be prepared for the challenges that lie ahead. We'll enjoy this Regional crown, and start preparing for Nationals in the coming days."
A very legitimate opponent, the College of New Rochelle served as the conference's biggest threat to Berkeley in the Knights' pursuit of a fifth consecutive Regional crown. Berkeley was up for the challenge, though, overcoming first half adversity and a one-point halftime deficit to battle back and defeat the Blue Angels by 10. New Rochelle finalized its season at 17-10.
Incredibly, Berkeley College rallied from nine or more points down in the HVIAC title game for the fifth year in a row to win. And with that triumph, the Knights now have 11 HVIAC crowns – eight more than the school with the second-most (St. Joseph's College of Brooklyn won three Regional titles when it was in the conference). Berkeley College has also won 11 of the 12 HVIAC championship games that it has appeared in – losing only once in 2008 to the Bears.
Nigel Hemingway was named the Most Valuable Player of the tournament. After scoring 12 points a day earlier against the Panthers of Albany College of Pharmacy in the tournament semifinals, he served as a major spark in today's title game win over the Blue Angels, draining five shots from downtown on his way to finishing with 18 points. He also grabbed five rebounds and recorded a pair of assists in 32 minutes of action.
Senior Shamiek Sheppard connected on seven of his 11 attempts from the floor, and seven of his eight opportunities at the charity stripe to finish with a team-high 21 points. He fell one rebound short of a double-double, grabbing nine boards. He also added two assists, as well. Senior standout Ricardo Ayuso did most of his damage at the free throw line, connecting on eight attempts there to eventually finish with 18 points and a team-high three steals. Finally, it was Dequan Jones putting together a very versatile performance, dropping-in 13 points while snatching six caroms and adding a game-high six assists.
Despite the loss for the College of New Rochelle, HVIAC Player of the Year Hunter Schenkel drained five shots from beyond-the-arc, and nine of his 13 attempts from the charity stripe to finish with a game-high 28 points. The standout also added a game-high seven steals to go along with three rebounds and two assists. Glen O'Loughlin converted on eight of his nine attempts from the floor to finish with 20 points and a team-high seven rebounds, and Elijah Harris and Justin Rivera contributed 12 and 10 points, respectively.
In a game that featured 10 ties and 15 lead changes, the College of New Rochelle once held a 33-24 edge before eventually taking a 48-47 lead into the locker room at halftime. The Knights stormed out of the locker room on an 8-0 run to build their largest lead of the game, 55-48. The College of New Rochelle answered with a 14-3 run to catapult ahead by a score of 62-59, but Berkeley's Dequan Jones nailed a three-point basket to knot the game at 62 apiece with 11:43 remaining in the game.
Over the next 10 minutes, neither squad was able to grab an advantage of more than five points. Later, with the Knights clinging to a 79-78 edge with 2:45 remaining, Nigel Hemingway drained a straight-away three-point basket to put Berkeley ahead 82-78. That started a 7-1 run that put the Knights up by a score of 86-79 with 1:35 remaining on the clock. The Knights would go on to the win the game by 10 points, a result almost identical to the final score of a year ago between the two teams (Berkeley defeated New Rochelle 93-82 in the 2018 title game).
The Knights connected on 45.9 percent of their attempts from the floor (28-61) compared to 35.4 percent for the College of New Rochelle (23-65). Berkeley held a commanding 50-38 edge in the rebounding department. Both teams shot well at the line, with the Knights hitting 30 of their 40 attempts from the charity stripe (75 percent), and the Blue Angels draining 26 of their 37 opportunities (70.3 percent).
Berkeley won the game despite committing 23 turnovers, while New Rochelle protected the basketball for the most part, committing just 18 miscues. The Knights moved the ball brilliantly, recording 16 assists, while the opposition finished with 12.
With the victory, the Knights have received an automatic bid to the 2018-2019 USCAA National Men's Basketball Tournament. Berkeley College will have an opportunity to win its fifth consecutive National crown. The Knights will learn who their opponent/potential opponents will be during Saturday's selection show. For the latest information on Berkeley College's quest for another USCAA championship, keep it posted to berkeleycollegeknights.com and/or theuscaa.com.


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For his second exclusive Discogs Mix (he contributed #41 back in 2015), Hotthobo returns to our series in support of his upcoming European tour (dates at the end of this post). Randy "Hotthobo" Ellis co-owns and serves as label manager for California's Hobo Camp and Voltaire Records. He's a longtime vinyl DJ and record collector, the host of the NTS radio program Mint Condition, and also a producer, arranger, remixer, event promoter and coordinator and frequent contributor and collaborator to releases by Loose Shus, Chautauqua, Elegant Borzoi, and Relish. His DJ sets consist of deep excursions into new, classic, and obscure 12″ and 7″ records, with a focus toward high-end Boogie, Disco, Two Step, Sweet Soul, Italo, House and Modern Funk.
This mix was created to showcase my current favorite Boogie Funk tunes on a soulful tip… all life-affirming jams celebrating love and loss, dating as far back as the early 80s and spanning up to the present day, and featuring brand new tracks from Social Lovers, Birdbone Unlimited, Joao Donato E Donatinho, Heather Haywood, and Zackey Force Funk. I'd like to shout out all the DJs and crews that inspired this mix, the ones that are digging constantly for tunes, and are preserving this music by playing these old tunes out, creating mixes, doing radio shows and generally reintroducing this music to a new audience and showcasing that brand new Boogie Funk… and also shout out the current crop of producers that keep integrating the feeling and production techniques of Boogie into their creations, and are still pushing this music forward and staying original!
2. George F. Smallwood & Marshmellow Band – You Know I Love You
3. João Donato E Donatinho – Lei Do Amor
4. Phoebe Cates – Feels So Good
5. Walter Thomas – I Wanna Get Witcha
6. De De – S & M (Sexy Music) (Rated X)
7. Birdbone Unlimited – All The Freaks Out Tonight
8. J.M. Black – Lipstick (Shout !)
9. End To End – We Can Work It Out
10. Elton Harwood – Just Like Money
11. Ernest Jackson – Reaching Out For Your Love
12. Heather Haywood From The Cool Notes – Give It Up
13. Intrigue – Let Sleeping Dogs Lie
14. The Mighty Passions – Baby Dumplin
15. George Hill – Do It While It's Hot (Remix)
16. Zackey Force Funk – Dead On Arrival
17. Social Lovers – Can't Get Enough
18. Blue Feathers – Let's Funk Tonight
19. Raymun – Do You Feel Like I Feel
Discogs (Randy Ellis)
Mint Condition radio show
Hobo Camp BandcampDid you enjoy this mix? Check out more exclusive Discogs Mixes.


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Full Demo
December 3, 2018
Wav:156MB • 100 x WAV 44.1 kHz, 24-bit.
Gorilla Recordings are proud to present the collection of 6th Gorilla Samples!
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You can use all samples in any DAW (Apple Logic, Ableton Live, Pro Tools, Cubase etc).
Sample pack includes only Acid Loops!
All drums in the Demo track are from our forthcoming sample packs, so keep an eye on the future releases from Gorilla Recordings! :-)
• 100 x WAV 44.1 kHz, 24-bit
• Unzipped: 312 MB
• 100 Acid Loops
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• Deep House
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• Trance


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The Lift Lesson
ខែតុលា 5, 2018 at 1:54 ល្ងាច បញ្ចេញមតិ
I went down at noon today, which I normally don't , with Pisey. Heavy traffic at the lift since it's lunch time. Then, one lift opened. Everyone rushed in, so did Pisey. In that moment, I asked Pisey to wait. It's what I do every day: wait. A few seconds later, another lift arrived and we hopped in without having to cramp inside the first lift with others.
Now, let's compare the lift to a cake, and let's say people are starving. When they see one cake arrives, everyone digs in. With so many people, they can only share a bite each and their rights to eating is over. We, in the other hand, hold our patience. Wait a little more, we'll have the whole cake of our own, with a cheery on top.
Patience is the key to the greater goods.
Entry filed under: ខ្ញុំគឺអញ្ចឹង!.


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Automatic cleaning without detergents
Oven interior can be cleaned by filling a high-temperature-resistant glass or clay cup with tap water, placing it in the oven, and activating the AquaClean program. The resulting steam will soften any dirt on the oven walls. At the end of the program, simply clean the oven with a damp cloth.
Preset programmes
Automatic presets allow simpler cooking of some types of food. You only have to choose the type of food and enter the weight, and the oven will automatically adjust the cooking power and duration.
Simple and efficient defrosting
All Gorenje microwave ovens stand out with the efficient defrosting preset that will evenly and quickly defrost any deep-frozen item.
Microwaves for rapid cooking
Microwaves are electromagnetic waves that excite movement of the water molecules in the food. This motion generates energy that heats, cooks, or defrosts the food. Due to quick and effective penetration of the microwaves into the food, the dishes are cooked much faster than with conventional cooking methods.
Staying perfect for the latecomers
The StayWarm automatic program keeps the food at a constant temperature until the time is right to serve the meal.
Perfect food in 2 or 3 steps
You can cook in several stages by manually programming a few steps of the cooking process. For example, in step 1 you may opt for more microwaves than grill, in step 2 the other way around, and you may set step 3 to achieve a final crust with just grilling. When you activate the StepBake mode, the microwave oven automatically changes the steps so you don't have to do it manually.
Always on the safe side
Safety switch makes sure the use of the microwave oven is perfectly safe. It automatically stops the program progress if the door is opened during operation.
Well-arranged and efficient
LED lighting provides excellent and highly efficient illumination. Its useful life is thirty times as long as that of conventional light bulbs, and it saves up to ten times as much power.
Indispensable rapid reheating
Allowing rapid heating of food activated by a single touch, the SmartStart function will prove particularly handy when you just can't wait for your warm meal.
Serve delicious dishes in the comfort of your home
WarmPlate, another handy automatic program, will warm your plates. Warmed plates prevent loss of flavour and ensure that the food tastes every bit as good as it should.
Advanced LED display
Elegant and clearly laid out LED display allows you to monitor the cooking or heating progress in the microwave oven. The countdown timer provides up-to-date information on how much longer the cooking process will take and which heating elements are in use.
Clean with a single stroke
Smooth interior without lips and slots makes cleaning a breeze. To clean the oven, all you need to do is wipe down the interior with a damp cloth.
Always on a safe side
The oven can be simply locked to prevent inadvertent use.
Turn off the volume
The microwave oven allows you to adjust the volume of acoustic signals. When you need silence, e.g. while your baby is asleep, you can still use your microwave oven without making a sound; simply turn off the acoustic signals and turn them back on at a later time.
Countdown timer
All Gorenje microwave ovens allow setting the operating time – from 30 to 60 minutes, depending on the model. The timer display clearly indicates the time remaining until the end of the cooking process.
Energy savings
In case of prolonged absence or if you just wish to be more eco-friendly, you can activate the power-saving mode in which the display is turned off. You can save up to 40 % on standby energy.
One, two, chocolate
The SoftMelt automatic program gently melts chocolate or butter at a constant temperature, thereby creating perfect conditions for melting, without burning.
Delayed start of oven operation
This convenient function allows setting the time when you wish the microwave oven operation to start. Thus, freshly cooked food will be ready just when you want it.
Tehnične značilnosti
Tehnične značilnosti
Splošne značilnosti
Družina izdelka
Mikrovalovna pečica
Linija izdelka
Advanced Line
Material notranjosti
Lakirana pločevina
Način odpiranja vrat
Z gumbom
Volumen pečice
20 l
Število stopenj moči
Število prednastavljenih programov
Premer vrtljivega krožnika
270 mm
Vrsta upravljalnih naprav
Elektronsko na vratih
Prikaz ure
Načini ogrevanja
Načini ogrevanja
Način distribucije
Vrtljiv krožnik
Tehnika proizvajanja mikrovalov
Večstopenjsko kuhanje
AUTO menu
Pametno upravljanje
Odtaljevanje čas/masa
Hitro in avtomatsko (čas&masa)
Smart display
Vrtljiv krožnik
Otroška zaščita
Zaklepanje upravljalne plošče
AquaClean funkcija
Tehnični podatki
Širina izdelka
451 mm
Višina izdelka
257 mm
Globina izdelka
343 mm
Notranja širina
300 mm
Notranja globina
296 mm
Notranja višina
212 mm
Bruto teža
12.5 kg
Neto teža
10.8 kg
Širina embaliranega izdelka
482 mm
Višina embaliranega izdelka
294 mm
Globina embaliranega izdelka
386 mm
EAN koda
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Silk Base ClosureStarting At:$125.00Usually ships in next business day! Remy Silk (Brazilian Straight) Brazilian Silk (Loose Wave) Peruvian Silk (Deep Twist) Unprocessed Silk (Body Wave)
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PR Friendly Blog
Does your company have something that is outdoors related and would like a review posted here? I'd like to do that! Feel free to contact me and let me know more about your product you would like reviewed. Here are some general rules:
- The product must be related to the outdoors and family safe.
- The review will be written by me, I will look at a press release but the review will be in my own words.
- You must send a product for me to review or a link to download it if it's a digital product.
- I get to keep or do what I want with the product after the review.
I also recommend doing a giveaway with a product review. That is a great way to get exposure to your product. If you would like to conduct a give away on Great Wild Outdoors here are some general rules:
- You agree to ship the product to the winner and pay all shipping charges. Please try to ship the product to the winner within 7 days.
- Giveaways run between 7 and 14 days and the length of the giveaway is generally set by me. Let me know if there is a specific length of time you would like.
Comments on this entry are closed.


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About this book
The Russian edition of this book appeared in 1969 and im mediately gained widespread recognition as a reference work for research workers interested in the physiology, biophysics, and pharmacology of excitable tissues. There are several reasons for the book's success. It deals with a key problem in biology which has recently been the subject of very intensive study and it is of great interest to a wide scientific audience. Not only the fundamentals of the modern membrane theory of biopotentials, but also the vast factual material collected in the last decades by the study of the biophysical and pharmacological properties of the ionic permeability pores of the cell membrane, are described in the book in an authoritative yet readable form. Special attention is paid in the book to the systematic analysis of the consequences of the Hodgkin-Huxley mathematical theory of the nervous impulse for the problem of excitability. The relationship between the various parameters of excitability (threshold potential, threshold current, useful time), accommodation, and the action potential on the one hand, and the constants of ionic permeability of the nerve fiber membrane, on the other hand, is subjected to detailed examination in this context. To do this, the author has made extensive use not only of experimental results obtained on isolated fibers (especially single nodes of Ran vier), but also the results of his own investigations on mathematical models of excitable membranes.
attention biology cognition experiment media physiology research time tissue
Bibliographic information
- DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-4487-2
- Copyright Information Springer-Verlag US 1974
- Publisher Name Springer, Boston, MA
- eBook Packages Springer Book Archive
- Print ISBN 978-1-4613-4489-6
- Online ISBN 978-1-4613-4487-2
- Buy this book on publisher's site
- Industry Sectors
- Biotechnology


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Great Western Wine
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A well structured wine with an intense perfume of juicy, ripe fruit and a rich palate, with just the right amount of tannin. Learn More
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This is really cracking; great finesse and precision underlayed with power and weight. Intense black fruits of damson and black cherry are wrapped by super-fine tannins, plenty of refreshing acidity and with just the right amount of oak. Learn More
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Complex and refined with great integration between fruit, oak and tannin.
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Come visit Abt Electronic's booth at the Chicagoland Apartment Association Trade Show this week! CAA represents rental housing owners and professionals in Metro Chicago who own or manage in total more than 120,000 rental units. The Chicagoland Apartment Association is dedicated to providing services and products that will help members operate their rental housing successfully and profitably.
CAA provides our members with opportunities for education, professional development, legislative representation, networking and serves as a credible resource for industry related information. Abt will be showcased as one of the booths for owners of apartment complexes.
Visit the Chicagoland Apartment Association Trade Show Event Calender for a full list of events!


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Bowlers have to limit opponents in World Cup — Sir Curtly
BRIDGETOWN, Barbados (CMC) — If the West Indies are going to have any chance of advancing deep into the ICC World Cup, legendary fast bowler Sir Curtly Ambrose believes their pace and spin bowlers must focus more on being economical.
Sir Curtly, who took 225 wickets in 176 One Day Internationals (ODIs) at an economy rate of 3.48, said from all reports the World Cup was expected to be high-scoring.
However, he explained that while most of the Windies' pacers were attacking bowlers, it was necessary for them to contain the opposing batsmen and build pressure.
The World Cup will be held in England, and will bowl off on May 30 and run until July 14.
"When you're talking about ODI cricket, I know every bowler wants to see a couple of wickets in the wickets column, but when you're thinking ODI cricket, the first thing you should think about is containment.
"The more you contain batsmen, it builds pressure. and when it builds pressure the batsmen have to find a way to score, so they tend to do things a little bit out of character and it gives you, the bowler a chance to get wickets. I think that most of our bowlers are attacking bowlers, and we need to be able to contain players — that's the first thing West Indies have to do," Sir Curtly said.
He said it was also important for spin bowlers to bowl tight, and maintain that pressure when introduced into the attack.
"They need to come to the party. If they're going to play, we're going to need them to bowl tight. We can't have our spinners bowling 10 [overs] for 60 [runs] and 10 for 70.
"The wickets out there are a little helpful to batsmen so the fast bowlers won't get too much out of the pitch — so that's why containment is important. For the spinners, the pitches may turn a bit so we need our spinners to bowl economically," Sir Curtly said.
He, however, admitted that he was concerned with the team's death bowling. He said it was important for bowlers, especially the fast bowlers, to have variation.
Sir Curtly said while high totals were expected, bowlers could not afford to be expensive in the dying overs.
"As a fast bowler and with the pitch not responding to fast bowling, it is crazy to run and try to bowl 90 miles per hour every delivery. That will never work. You need variation — a couple quick ones, some cutters, some slower deliveries if you have them — so variation will be the key as opposed to running in and trying to bowl 90 mph every delivery.
"I have a serious concern about our death bowling. If we don't have guys who can bowl well in the death we are going to struggle — because if the first 40 overs or so we go for plenty runs, you know we're going to go for a lot more in the death; so I am very, very concerned about our death bowling," he noted.
Now you can read the Jamaica Observer ePaper anytime, anywhere. The Jamaica Observer ePaper is available to you at home or at work, and is the same edition as the printed copy available at http://bit.ly/epaperlive
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Stochastic Comparison Results for Non-Blocking Switches with Output Queueing
Kim, Young B.
Makowski, Armand M.
MetadataShow full item record
We propose a systematic approach to quantify the impact of nonuniform traffic on the performance of non-blocking switches with output queueing. We do so in the context of a simple queueing model where cells arrive to input ports according to independent Bernoulli processes, and are switched to an output port under a random routing mechanism. We give conditions on pairs of input rate vectors and switching matrices which ensure various stochastic comparisons for performance measures of interest. These conditions are formulated in terms of the majorization ordering while the comparison results are expressed in the strong and convex increasing orderings. <BR>


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Papel Picado (perforated paper) is a traditional tissue paper craft popular with Mexican folk lore. Artists typically use chisels and one pattern as a guide to stamp or cut out sections of multiple sheets of tissue paper at a time. These papel picado images use the fanfold method, but once the designs are cut out can easily be used as guides to cutting out multiple sets of patterns. Print on the lightest weight paper possible to make the cutting process easier.
Papel picado; The cutting of repeating, mosaic patterns either abstract design themes of nature, spiritual significance or just for fun with birds, skeletons and flowers and such. Mexican folk art flags ar used in secular and religious occasions, such as:
Other uses for snowflake stencils:
Print all holiday patterns on regular or colored paper. Trace the patterns onto foam sheets or aluminum foil to create unique designs.
Stencil snowflakes are perfect for very young children and those who cannot use scissors but want to enjoy creating beautiful snowflake ornaments for the holidays.
Stencil holiday pattern styles available for 12, 4 and 6 sided snowflakes.
Celebration stencil styles include three formats:
12 Sided
4 Sided
6 Sided
Paper Trivia: Did you know that you can only fold a sheet of printer paper in half seven times? Give it a try. It doesn't matter how thick or thin the paper is, once you get to the seventh fold, the paper will not bend or budge.
Sun catchers. To create a translucent, stained glass ornaments effect, apply a bit of lemon oil to the back sides of paper ornaments to create a.
Hang the ornaments on trees, in windows, anywhere bright colorful decorations are desired.
Construct a large paper-tree for the wall with shades of green construction paper. Draw a large tree on a sheet of easel pad paper to tack onto a wall or other flat surface, then decorate with paper ornaments.


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Triathlon Strength and Conditioning: A Year Long Program
Paperback, 112 Pages
Price: $24.99
Prints in 3-5 business days
This book presents a yearly strength and conditioning program that does not take a large amount of time away from your normal training. In it's easy to read format, all necessary topics that you need is covered. Nutrition, mechanics, speed, agility, flexibility, strength exercises and a yearly program is included with a discussion on how to implement all of the elements within your demanding schedule. Over 115 stretch, plyometric, strength and core exercise are shown with picture and written descriptions The yearly program is broken down into three week phases to make it easily customizable for your schedule.
Ratings & ReviewsLog in to review this item
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Product Details
- 9780557847105
- Copyright
- Richard Spenner, CES, CSCS (Standard Copyright License)
- Published
- November 28, 2010
- Language
- English
- Pages
- 112
- Binding
- Perfect-bound Paperback
- Interior Ink
- Black & white
- Weight
- 0.86 lbs.
- Dimensions (inches)
- 8.5 wide x 11 tall
- Product ID
- 13854067
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Working Memory Exercises – Farm Animal Freebie
Here is a freebie to practice working memory skills. This freebie is one of the Level 1 exercises.
Working Memory Exercises encourage:
- visual memory skills
- working memory skills
- handwriting practice
- executive function skills
You can download the activity at http://yourtherapysource.com/workingmemoryfreebie.html
You can find out more information about the Working Memory Exercises Level 1 and Level 2 at http://yourtherapysource.com/workingmemory.html


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Guest blog: Use it or lose it
Author: Claire Young
Date Published: March 28, 2013
Originally published: RedBalloon - Behind the Red Door
1. Have you ever successfully completed a crossword puzzle or put together a piece of furniture from IKEA?
2. Do you know what Sudoku stands for or how many possible combinations there are for a 9-by-9 grid?
3. Have you ever piggybacked your boss?
4. Do you know what it's like to have a loved one suffer from Alzheimer's?
If you asked me the above questions, this is what I'd tell you…
1. Yes and yes! The crossword took me all day (I'm still waiting for my standing ovation) and you can take a look at my IKEA furniture below… I got a little bit of help from dad, but I did put the drawers together all by myself.
2. The name "Sudoku" comes from two Japanese words: "su", meaning "number," and doku, meaning "single." If you put the two words together it means "single numbers only." Oh and there are only 6,670,903,752,021,072,936,960 possible combinations!
3. The things you do at boot camp after work…
4. In recent years, both of my grandmothers were diagnosed with Alzheimer's – in a way I feel like it's played a big part in our family experience. So naturally, when I heard about the 'Heart Your Brain' challenge, signing up was an easy decision.
But what exactly is the 'Heart Your Brain' challenge?
It's 21 days of new 'brain healthy' habits. I've pledged a commitment online to improve my mental and physical health by trying new experiences. Research shows certain lifestyle and health factors are good for the brain, body and heart and can help reduce the risk of developing Alzheimer's.
'Your Brain Matters' had plenty of suggestions for activities to get me started. Surprisingly, keeping my brain stimulated and trying new things wasn't all that hard – but I think that's due to this wonderful place I'm lucky enough to call work.
Here at RedBalloon we're encouraged to try new experiences and get outside of our comfort zone. Having a healthy work-life balance is promoted with flexible working hours, a constantly stocked fruit bowl and a wellness program which (among other things) gives us access to free outdoor personal training. Which brings me back to that time I piggy backed my boss…
So how have I challenged myself over the past 21 days?
Well in a snapshot, I've…
- Learnt something new every day – the website didyouknowblog.com is my new best friend. For example, did you know the acronym OMG has been used for 95 years? The first person to receive a letter with OMG was Sir Winston Churchill. Now if I could just find the origin of amazeballs…
- Committed to a brain train exercise each day – there's heaps on Alzheimer's Australia's BrainyApp
- Become a pro at Sudoku
- Been to a play and watched the movie Hitchcock
- Completed a Rubix Cube
- Started a DIY project (hello IKEA!)
- Worked out four nights a week for at least 30 minutes
- Eaten five serves of veggies and two serves of fruit – thank you work fruit bowl
- Trained for the Newcastle Colour Run with my mum
- Spent time outside with my beautiful labrador, Zoe
- Eaten healthy snacks at work and cut down on junk foods. Well… I've tried to cut down on junk food, but the Easter bunny just keeps leaving chocolate on my desk!
- Tried a new activity. A few RedBallooners and I went jet boating on Sydney Harbour this week. Having only worked at RedBalloon for just under two months, it was my very first RedBalloon experience and I'd highly recommend it. Ponchos are obviously for the weak.
At RedBalloon we're all about creating good times with the people we love. My Mama once said that at the end of your life, the only things you have are your memories and your values. By completing the Heart Your Brain challenge, I'm one step closer to remembering the special times I'm creating for many years to come.
How can you challenge yourself today?


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Take it out of the office and into the peaceful surroundings of Sudbury House. Located on the edge of the Cotswolds with easy access to the M4 and M40, Sudbury House is an ideal venue for a business meeting for up to 100 people.
We offer a range of unique meeting facilities to create that true "out-of-the-office" feeling with a selection of contemporary meeting rooms suitable for meetings small or large and with 7 acres of outdoor space that is perfect for team building exercises.
We have great affordable day delegate rates starting from £45.00. Why not extend your stay with us here at Sudbury House and upgrade to one of our 24-hour delegate packages for discounted Dinner, Bed and Breakfast accommodation to help unwind after your busy day.
For more information please contact our dedicated Events Team on 01367 245345Conference Brochure 2019


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1960s News and Stories
The '60s was a wild time of free love, drugs … and really hilarious covers on gay pulp novels
Read the full story
A new book sheds light on the influential 1963 road trip that introduced Andy Warhol to the stars and parties of Hollywood, and changes his future forever.
Read the full story
If you liked our gay pulp covers, check out these great lesbian-themed pulp novel covers! Women in prison, snow bunnies, and Satanic lesbians… oh yes!
Read the full story


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Ministries of the CRC
World Renew is the relief and development arm of the Christian Reformed Church. The motto that guides its ministry is "Living Justice, Loving Mercy," based on Micah 6:8. For more than 42 years, CRWRC has sought to live justice and love mercy by reaching out in God's love to disaster survivors and people in poverty around the world.
Christian Reformed World Missions takes the gospel message out to the far reaches of the earth. More than three hundred CRC missionaries live and work in almost twenty countries in Africa, Latin America, and Asia. As a denomination, we reach the unreached in our backyards through Home Missions, and we reach the unreached throughout the larger world through World Missions.
Christian Reformed Home Missions serves the Christian Reformed Church in the work of evangelism and discipleship. Home Missions encourages the church to help local congregations, new churches, and campus ministries bring God's love to North America. Prayer mobilization, small group ministries, coaching, consultation and training, leadership development, diversity, finalcial assistance--all of these are key elements of Home Missions' strategy for strengthening the church's outreach.
Move to "other ministries" or similar
Race Relations: Synod mandated the ministry of Race Relations to help the denomination, congregations, and members of the church to eliminate racism within the body of believers and throughout the world.
The Safe Church Ministry offers education, training, resources, protocols, and consultation services to Christian Reformed churches. The goals of this ministry are to create awareness of various forms of abuse against persons of all ages, to help churches prevent incidents of abuse, and to promote healing through a just and effective response when incidents of abuse are disclosed.
The Office of Social Justice responds to God's call to let justice flow like a river in our personal and communal lives as well as in the structures of our societies. It is "a place where we encourage Christian Reformed social justice action through information, links, discussion, and action alternatives."
The Back to God Hour is the electronic media ministry of the Christian Reformed Church. By means of radio, television, telephone, the Internet, and printed materials, the Back to God Hour proclaims the gospel to people nearby and around the world.
Chaplains minister to people in places where the church is often unable to be present. The Chaplaincy Ministries facilitates the work of the Christian Reformed Church pastors in the United States and Canada who work in specialized ministries such as the military, hospitals, prisons, industry, drug and alcohol rehabilitation centers, and pastoral counseling centers.
A focus on Disability Concerns is mandated by Synod to seek the full participation of people with disabilities in church life. This involves helping churches to remove barriers of architecture, communication, and attitude.
And the Pastor-Church Relations Service was founded to provide resources to assist in developing vital and healthy ministry. This is accomplished through programs of intervention/consultation where there are relationship stresses, assistance in cultivating creative ways to build programs and relationships for effective leadership, and support of the ministry staff.Also see the Christian Reformed Church web site for related topics.


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Although a lot of importance is placed on women's eyeglasses fashion, looking good in frames is just as important to men. To find the right pair of glasses for your face, you have to understand its shape and how certain types of frames can complement your appearance. To help you get started on your search for the right glasses, here are some considerations to make when shopping.
What Shape Is Your Face?
Besides the style of the eyeglasses, the shape of your face is possibly the most important factor when selecting eyewear. The wrong shape can lead to less than flattering frames for you.
For instance, if you have a square face shape, glasses that are round can help to soften strong features. Glasses that are square or have sharp edges can only serve to make your face more angular than it actually is. As a result, you can look less approachable than you actually are.
By contrast, if you have a round face, wearing glasses with sharp edges, such as square frames, can work to your advantage. The glasses can help add some definition to your face and help your features stand out more.
What Is Your Prescription?
Your eyeglasses prescription can have a bearing on how thick your lenses are. The stronger the prescription, the thicker the lenses tend to be. For some men, this can be embarrassing.
Fortunately, there is a way to still get the style of eyeglasses you want in the prescription strength needed. Glass lenses can now be thinned so that they are not as thick as in the past. There is a hitch though. There is a limitation to how thin the lenses can be.
If your lenses are still thicker than you like, avoid thin frames, such as metal frames. The lenses will be bulkier than the frames, which can be aesthetically unappealing. There is also the potential for the frames not being enough to support the lenses.
What Color Works Best?
One of the final considerations that you should make when selecting your new eyeglasses is the color. Color is decided by several factors, including the shape of your face and your style.
For instance, if you have a square face, you want to avoid light colored frames. The frames do not provide enough contrast between you and the eyeglasses. On the other hand, dark frames do.
If in doubt about the color you need, black frames are a classic choice that can work in any setting. The eyeglasses will look great with a suit and tie or with a t-shirt and jeans.
An optometrist can help you find a pair of eyeglasses that fits your face's shape and your personal style. Finding the right pair might take trying several pairs, but it is possible.Share